OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Habits]

Removal of interest costs as an expense against revenue attacks the very heart of business taxation that dates back a hundred years. Every business can and does offset interest costs of money borrowed to buy a capital asset against revenue earnt when working out profit for tax purposes. Every business except now that of residential property rental. This is not leveling the playing field, it is tipping it severely against one business type.

From the 90s and later, some people openly promoted as a reason to get in to prpty investment was the favourable tax treatment. The tax writeoffs of depreciation, as a non-cash expense and mortgage interest expense which could be fully written off against income to pay no tax whilst the capital gain was tax free. There was also a long advert by dolf de roos directed to australians why they should invest in nz property as it was a land of nirvana. The ad asked which country was this? ... where you could get solid returns along with a string of great benefits and favourable tax treatment. It ended by identifying NZ as the country and right under their nose but they never realised. It obviously worked as aussie mum and dad investors poured in, some of them in investor tour buses. To be fair, at the time or earlier, there were also nz radio ads promoting queensland real estate. But they had to offer a 'free' trip to entice people over there.

Question for you 850man, are you a pty investor or an accountant, or both. I am just wondering why you are so vehemently opposed.

[Ferg]

@BlueSkies : context is important isn't it? The context for property investors is not just interest deductibility - that is the latest in a string of policies targeted at investors who provide the social housing needed by society, that various Governments have stepped away from. Removing interest deductibility has been added to these other recent changes (there may be more):



increased tenancy difficulties for investors through tighter termination rules,
rental price increase limitations, and
cost burden increases for landlords through increased heating and insulation requirements etc.


So this is not just about interest deductibility. It is more a case of the straw that breaks the camels back. In addition, removing interest deductibility has nothing to do with home owners given it IS a business (and a home owner is not) and this policy undermines the very foundation of expense deductibility. It is incredibly bad and lazy policy conducted without consultation with either Treasury or IRD. For you to claim "investors have an advantage over property owners" or it "evens the playing field" shows you do not understand the underlying issue. You are comparing apples and oranges. Furthermore, to claim home owners can structure their affairs to access interest deductibility on personal mortgages is a slogan without substance, and it does a disservice to the tax agency profession and IRD. It is either a naïve view or an incredibly abusive tax position. And to your last point, I would be disappointed if my accountant and/or lawyer did not investigate how to get around such bad policy.

Disclosure: not yet an investor in OCA and no I'm not a residential landlord to which I have previously attested.


One point I find interesting is the advantage investors had over owner occupiers, with investors being able to claim interest deductions against rental income but owner occupiers in the vast majority of cases unable to claim interest deductions against their income unless they had specially arranged their affairs in order to get around this. And why this should be.
The immediately obvious answer is one is a business, while the other is not, but in another sense we are all our own businesses with income & expenses.
Following the removal it is now an even playing field.

Also find it interesting & a bit disheartening to hear within days a few clever lawyers already confident they can find ways to rearrange affairs in order to get around the changes to policy.

[Ferg]

The tax writeoffs of depreciation, as a non-cash expense and mortgage interest expense which could be fully written off against income to pay no tax
That is nothing special, rather that is tax 101. The basic premise of our tax law is that if you operate a business and spend money to make money, then those expenses are deductible against any revenues earned. It really is tax 101. The only people to whom it is a revelation are those who do not understand tax law.

[Habits]

That is nothing special, rather that is tax 101. The basic premise of our tax law is that if you operate a business and spend money to make money, then those expenses are deductible against any revenues earned. It really is tax 101. The only people to whom it is a revelation are those who do not understand tax law.

Section xxx of the income tax act 1976 as it was in my time. And also... parliament is the highest court in the land, it has the right to make any law it deems.

By the way ferg, what do you think of how the national govt targetted and removed depreciation specifically on housing assets. Were you equally upset and outraged at the inequity of that legislation. If not, then that would be hypocritical of you would it not?

Your quote from my post is out of context, you should include that interest was deductible yet the capital gains (which is part of ones investment returns) were/are not taxable. The logic of the interest expense relies on expense which is "incurred in the gaining of assessable income" as I remember. However capital gain is not assessable yet investors of which I am one, seek to write off the entire interest cost. It does not seem fair to the average person and that is why Dolf de Roos and others could highlight that as a positive to those who as you wrote "do not understand tax law"

Here is my earlier post... "The tax writeoffs of depreciation, as a non-cash expense and mortgage interest expense which could be fully written off against income to pay no tax whilst the capital gain was tax free."

[Bjauck]

Talking about level as in level for both investors & owner occupiers now, not residential property rental V other types of business.

Don't you think when investors are given a strong advantage over owner occupiers, its tilts the field in their direction which is what we've been seeing with FHB'ers constantly being outbid by investors in the auction rooms ?
Im interested in others opinions. Owner-occupiers had an advantage before the changes and have even more of one now. They do NOT pay income tax on the annual benefit of their ownership (accommodation) whereas investors receiving rent do. THAT is why owner-occupier mortgage interest is non deductible. They are already in effect subsidised by other taxpayers - and now more than before.

The playing field has been and is well biassed in favour of owner-occupiers. What's more it would be political suicide to reform that distortion in the tax system, that vested interest! No one will touch that elephant in the room.

Investors can outbid FHB's for a number of reasons including amongst others:

1. They are generally older and with savings/assets.
2. They have access to equity from years of owning tax-advantaged and leveraged owner-occupied housing and possibly working their way up that tax-advantaged property ladder.
3. They may have inherited capital (NZ also has no estate or capital transfer duties) Much of the inherited capital was probably from years of owning tax-advantaged leveraged owner-occupied housing.
4. They have well-paid jobs/high incomes.
5. Banks consider them to be more credit worthy possibly owing to a combination of points 1 thru 4.

Introducing a general CGT with an exemption for owner-occupied main residence would further subsidise owner-occupiers.

[fish]

Hi all, great to see some back and forward about pros and cons with OCA. Im glad that it's not all one sided, we need to see balanced discussions. Beagle, Maverick love your work I hope that I can be as knowledgeable as both of you one day. I really do value this forum and everyone that contributes.

With recent goings on I think that OCA got a pretty decent deal with the acquisitions and I'd rather they used equity to fund these first acquisitions than increase their debt levels so that they can use debt in the future.

The recent SP decrease is interesting and think it has been over done as the SP usually is with perceived risk, but thats to be expected with pretty bad timing of things occurring, New tax laws, CEO leaving, Equity Raise, White papers, Bond Yields increasing and a lot of talk about residential property prices reducing... all have worked against OCA's SP so really it shouldn't be a surprise to anyone that the SP has reduced. How low will it go i'm not to sure, I do note that Baa_Baa has shown a chart with support around the 200MA and 61.8% Fib i'm not entirely convinced it will shoot up from here in the short term as it isn't showing a couple of other TA signals I like to use. But I am confident about the future growth of the company in the long term and will be trying to get as many shares that I can through the retail offering.

For those interested, although not OCA directly I think this article covers a lot of things that have been spoken about on this thread and is pretty appropriate to OCA https://seekingalpha.com/article/4396045-ryman-healthcare-compounder-low-historical-valuation#comments Happy Easter all

Just noticed this on OCA's Facebook page. I like the direction... is Brent making his mark already? https://fb.watch/4GIH5-Igh7/ Seems website has been updated as well.
'Believe in Better'

A realistic and fair post worth repeating and checking out the links .
The future looks good for quality retirement villages providing the elderly with with stress free quality living for the rest of their lives .
With property prices so high,most owners should have no problem selling and buying a right to occupy and be cared for in the later stages of life at that village .
This thread needs to move away from the personal insults and threats to sue (an idle threat as defamation suits require elements that did not exist and comments here are clearly personal opinion and do not identify )

[mike2020]

1. Property investors live in owner occupied homes as well and enjoy the same benefits, home owners without rentals don't earn rental income.
2. Favourable tax treatment allowing people with equity to buy all the houses is not a win for any society.

[Bjauck]

1. Property investors live in owner occupied homes as well and enjoy the same benefits, home owners without rentals don't earn rental income.
2. Favourable tax treatment allowing people with equity to buy all the houses is not a win for any society.

Re 1. No. Not all rental housing owners have owner-occupied housing. Also what about taxpayers who own neither rentals nor owner-occupied housing? Maybe we should give owner-managers of businesses tax-free profits from their businesses in the same way owner-occupier investors in houses have their tax free accommodation benefit?

Re 2. What favourable tax treatment? Owner-occupiers pay neither income tax on their annual accommodation benefit from their investment nor CGT nor bright line tax on their leveraged capital gains. The advantages belong to those who have been able to afford and borrow for owner-occupied housing and distortions emanate from that.

NZ needed a CGT (on the owner-occupied home too but deferred until death, final sale or emigration) and a decent tax concessionary pension scheme. First homes would then become more affordable I think.

[850man]

A realistic and fair post worth repeating and checking out the links .
The future looks good for quality retirement villages providing the elderly with with stress free quality living for the rest of their lives .
With property prices so high,most owners should have no problem selling and buying a right to occupy and be cared for in the later stages of life at that village .
This thread needs to move away from the personal insults and threats to sue (an idle threat as defamation suits require elements that did not exist and comments here are clearly personal opinion and do not identify )

Thinking about OCA's customers (potential residents) I wonder how much if at all these recent chnages in tax rules will cause impact. Their need/driver to move from own home to OCA is unchanged. What they may get for their house when they sell it to move into OCA may be a bit less these days although that in itself is debatable. Even if less, I doubt it would overturn their decision to move to OCA. Where OCA stands to benefit over other village operators is on their price, they are less for a comparable residence than their competitors and while shareholders would like them to up prices to increase revenue, they can use this room to move on prices to their advantage when competing for new residents if required.

[Habits]

"Owner-occupiers had an advantage before the changes and have even more of one now. They do NOT pay income tax on the annual benefit of their ownership (accommodation) whereas investors receiving rent do. THAT is why owner-occupier mortgage interest is non deductible. They are already in effect subsidised by other taxpayers - and now more than before."

No thats just weird logic bjauck. Because the private owners pay the mortgage from tax paid income. They dont gain extra income from the house like a PI does. You want the private home owners to pay a tax for use when they already service their mortgage interest (which is not deductible for them) from net after tax incomes. After paying high personal income tax and gst then pay another round of tax for "annual benefit of ownership" along with rates and insurance and maintenance- also paid from after tax income. The struggling first home buyers will never get out of debt at this rate :t_down:

[Waltzing]

" Even if less, I doubt it would overturn their decision to move to OCA. "

thats the main point for demand of OCA and other stocks.

Its doubtful we will see a big drop (oca) from policy tax saying rentals are not a business class assets but more likely from underlying costs of the industry.

With security of residence where else are you going to go. At some point a retirement village makes a lot of sense unless you have some one younger keep an eye on your well being.

Its just the P&L costs as right now no one really knows if the bottom line is going to grow as fast as other listed business models.

BE covers it like a broad brush because as we suspect he cant actually do double entry with auto contras.

https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/109819/economist-brian-easton-says-government%E2%80%99s-recent-housing-package-may-work-will-it-do

[Bjauck]

People may bring forward their move into a village especially if they think that house price growth will be less now. In addition the past year may have shown that village life brings the benefit of a coordinated approach and protection on the face of an epidemic.

[winner69]

People may bring forward their move into a village especially if they think that house price growth will be less now. In addition the past year may have shown that village life brings the benefit of a coordinated approach and protection on the face of an epidemic.

Is an Oceania village a good place to be in an Orwellian world?

[Bjauck]

"
No thats just weird logic bjauck. Because the private owners pay the mortgage from tax paid income. They dont gain extra income from the house like a PI does.... No it is imputed income. If they rented the same house from a landlord how much rent would they pay? If they were assessed on imputed income or a "fair dividend" as some other investments are already., then they could deduct their mortgage interest from that. That is the annual value of the asset the owner occupier invested in. Maybe think of imputed rent as a fringe benefit.

[Bjauck]

Is an Oceania village a good place to be in an Orwellian world? Good point W69! Would they be protection from it or would they be an instrument of control?

[Baa_Baa]

Please all kindly take your non-OCA property chat here https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/forumdisplay.php?9-Property-Investment

Thanks

[justakiwi]

Thank you for those very kind words. I had a “day off” ;) (which was actually a good thing)




Looks like Justakiwi is no longer a member . Maybe that was her decision after being threatened with legal action. I guess if that was done to me I possibly would decide to become an observer rather than a participant. Great shame as it was good to get someone’s opinion from the coal face.

[Getty]

And Beagle?

As a serial recidivist, he may not be granted parole.

Lord have mercy...

[winner69]

Another month passes and again SUM share price outperforms the OCA shareprice

Fascinating isn't it

Whatever it is market sentiment towards SUM continues to be more favorable than towards OCA - and its essentially been that way since OCA floated.

On the hypemeter OCA wins hands down so hyping it up doesn't seem to work. The real reason is probably Oceania hasn't managed to sell itself to the market - a lot more work needed in this area

As I said last time the trend can't continue forever unless Oceania go broke - or is taken over.

Until the trend changes I conti ue to hold heaps more SUM than OCA - worked wonders to date insofar as outperformance goes.

[theace]

What's the view on participating in the SPP? ... coming to a close soon.

[RupertBear]

What's the view on participating in the SPP? ... coming to a close soon.

Good question. Well I topped up a few yesterday @ $1.28 so I am going to pass on the SPP....

[winner69]

What's the view on participating in the SPP? ... coming to a close soon.

I decided a few weeks ago I had enough OCA so why even consider it because it's a capital raise

If I did my shareholding has already been diluted so why bother

Bit bad that a director shareholder can increase his already big share of the pie through participating in the book build - but then he's the big end of town and a sophisticated investor who cares little for little insignificant shareholders....and he is an Independent Director looking after our interests

[bottomfeeder]

Sold some at 1.34 today, and have signed up for the capital raise. Just hope my application is not scaled back too much. So looks like will make a few bucks over a week or so. But fear that the price is artificially high now, and will go below $1.27 after its all over.

[tim23]

Sold some at 1.34 today, and have signed up for the capital raise. Just hope my application is not scaled back too much. So looks like will make a few bucks over a week or so. But fear that the price is artificially high now, and will go below $1.27 after its all over.

Might be good timing so well done, but to say it will go below $1.27 is pure speculation.

[ronaldson]

I see no reason for the price to be " artificially high " currently either. It is possible that retail shareholders who are successful in the capital raise will be allotted at marginally less than $1.30 given the discount available but the weighted average price is based over the 4 trading days this week and the additional day on Monday 12th, and based upon todays prices/volume I would not be holding my breath.

On another note it seems that the 20/21 financial year balance date has already happened ( 31 March, brought forward from 31 May ) so we are due the full year ( 10 month ) results later in May and presumably a further dividend announcement, for which all the new shares will be eligible so again expectations in that regard should be moderate.

[BlackPeter]

OK - so with the directors digging deep I thought I follow their amazing example. Greg Tomlinson added recently 22.6% of new shares to his portfolio and I thought I just following his shining example ... admittedly, the total of shares in my portfolio is somewhat smaller ;) than his;

Well, that's the percentage (of my existing OCA shares) I applied for - obviously now I need to see whether small retail investors are heavier scaled than the big boys ...

Back to my rational for participating in the CR: Obviously - directors don't know either what short term impact the current fear campaign of some disgruntled property investors on this thread against the new tax policies of the government might have on the OCA share price, but I am pretty sure that the directors have a better grip on the fundamentals of OCA than the general public ... and nobody would throw several additional millions at new OCA shares (as GT did), if they would be concerned about the future profitability of the company due to a too high salary budget ...

[Rawz]

OK - so with the directors digging deep I thought I follow their amazing example. Greg Tomlinson added recently 22.6% of new shares to his portfolio and I thought I just following his shining example ... admittedly, the total of shares in my portfolio is somewhat smaller ;) than his;

Well, that's the percentage (of my existing OCA shares) I applied for - obviously now I need to see whether small retail investors are heavier scaled than the big boys ...

Back to my rational for participating in the CR: Obviously - directors don't know either what short term impact the current fear campaign of some disgruntled property investors on this thread against the new tax policies of the government might have on the OCA share price, but I am pretty sure that the directors have a better grip on the fundamentals of OCA than the general public ... and nobody would throw several additional millions at new OCA shares (as GT did), if they would be concerned about the future profitability of the company due to a too high salary budget ...

I applied for 100% of current holding but am expecting to get scaled back heavily. If I get the 100% Ill look to trim by the end of the year once the big recovery happens ;)

I share your thinking regarding directors buying shares. Its almost like cheating in a way, they have complete inside knowledge and like you say wouldn't be piling millions into something they knew was a dog. I copied the directors of MHJ and TRA when they purchased shares and that worked great. A couple weeks back TWR insiders purchased shares and I'm kicking myself for not buying some because it has since gone from $0.72 to $0.81, easy gains.

Insiders buying (in this case big) is a very good sign imo.

[Baa_Baa]

Got a 'reminder' email from OCA re the raise. Hope it's going ok, can't recall the last time I got a reminder about a raising except when they were undersubscribed.

[Grimy]

I applied for about 30% of my current holding. Anticipating some scaling, but I'm not talking big dollars, so not too fussed with whatever the amount of scaling will be.

[winner69]

Insiders buying good ......esp when the one independent director who bought big increased his %age holding in OCA (a bigger slice of the bigger pie) in the book build

At the same time when small shareholders will fight over the scraps (and probably end up with a smaller piece of the bigger pie.

Doesn’t seem quite right.

[BlackPeter]

Got a 'reminder' email from OCA re the raise. Hope it's going ok, can't recall the last time I got a reminder about a raising except when they were undersubscribed.

No worries. They got already $80m from the institutional placement (to fund a $77m purchase). Should be enough. The current lot of new shares ($20m) is just to give existing shareholders the opportunity to get their piece of the pie and to give OCA some more flexibility "for further growth opportunities". Just read their presentation :):

https://www.shareoffer.co.nz/OceaniaHealthcare/Documents/Oceania-Investor-Presentation.pdf

These e-mail reminders are standard practice ... I am pretty sure I got one for every CR (on the NZX) I was entitled to participate in the last handful of years, and I can't remember any of them which was undersubscribed.

[winner69]

No worries. They got already $80m from the institutional placement (to fund a $77m purchase). .

Not just institutions but also the likes of Tomlinson ...but thinking about he’s probably an institution in his own right.

[BlackPeter]

Not just institutions but also the likes of Tomlinson ...but thinking about he’s probably an institution in his own right.

If you look at the documentation - they talk about an "institutional placement" (this was the first $80m, already done and well oversubscribed) and a "retail offer" (that's the remining $20m they are collecting now).

Their terms, not mine.

[winner69]

If you look at the documentation - they talk about an "institutional placement" (this was the first $80m, already done and well oversubscribed) and a "retail offer" (that's the remining $20m they are collecting now).

Their terms, not mine.

Institutional and other selected investors

[BlackPeter]

Institutional and other selected investors

I guess it depends where you look:

12414

(Investor presentation slide 4)

But anyway, I am glad you understood my post despite me not consulting my legal department before posting :p;

[Cyclical]

Peeps, noob question alert... So last week I sold all of my OCA shares directly from within the computershare site. It's not really what I wanted to do, ideally would have kept circa 20% but the computershare site only let's you sell all or nothing and I was caught up in the sky is falling hysteria and hit sell lol. Anyway, given the record date was the 22nd and I was a holder at that point, am I still eligible for the offer despite not being a current holder? FWIW I got the email reminder today too.

[justakiwi]

I think so, but I’m sure someone more knowledgeable will be along to answer you shortly.


Peeps, noob question alert... So last week I sold all of my OCA shares directly from within the computershare site. It's not really what I wanted to do, ideally would have kept circa 20% but the computershare site only let's you sell all or nothing and I was caught up in the sky is falling hysteria and hit sell lol. Anyway, given the record date was the 22nd and I was a holder at that point, am I still eligible for the offer despite not being a current holder? FWIW I got the email reminder today too.

[BlackPeter]

Peeps, noob question alert... So last week I sold all of my OCA shares directly from within the computershare site. It's not really what I wanted to do, ideally would have kept circa 20% but the computershare site only let's you sell all or nothing and I was caught up in the sky is falling hysteria and hit sell lol. Anyway, given the record date was the 22nd and I was a holder at that point, am I still eligible for the offer despite not being a current holder? FWIW I got the email reminder today too.

You should still be eligible for the offer if you did hold them at record date - however - your current nil holding may or may not have some impact on their scaling decisions (I don't think they published their scaling criteria, and some companies use as well the recent share holding as criterion ...). Given the current SP - why don't you just buy as many shares back on market as you want, if you think that (around) 130 is a good price? Just saw - 130 was the closing price today anyway.

[Cyclical]

Given the current SP - why don't you just buy as many shares back on market as you want, if you think that (around) 130 is a good price? Just saw - 130 was the closing price today anyway.

Yep, been thinking about that. TBH I wrote my last message before checking today's closing price. When looking at it this arvo it was about 1.34, at which point the offer looked more attractive! I'll make the call tomorrow.

[Baa_Baa]

Yep, been thinking about that. TBH I wrote my last message before checking today's closing price. When looking at it this arvo it was about 1.34, at which point the offer looked more attractive! I'll make the call tomorrow.

Buy on market, get what you want, apply for shares, get what you’re given.

[tim23]

Peeps, noob question alert... So last week I sold all of my OCA shares directly from within the computershare site. It's not really what I wanted to do, ideally would have kept circa 20% but the computershare site only let's you sell all or nothing and I was caught up in the sky is falling hysteria and hit sell lol. Anyway, given the record date was the 22nd and I was a holder at that point, am I still eligible for the offer despite not being a current holder? FWIW I got the email reminder today too.

You should be - same as selling shares the day after dividend entitlement

[Mrbuyit]

Has anyone run the numbers on whether the last 4 days plus whatever Monday brings is likely to see an issue price less than $1.30?

[winner69]

Has anyone run the numbers on whether the last 4 days plus whatever Monday brings is likely to see an issue price less than $1.30?

At this rate will be below 130

[RGR367]

Applied just half of the max for the spp. Aside from having heaps of this already, I also don't believe there is enough available shares for those wanting a bigger slice of OCA at this point if we all apply for the limit.
GLTAH.

[IAK]

Applied just half of the max for the spp. Aside from having heaps of this already, I also don't believe there is enough available shares for those wanting a bigger slice of OCA at this point if we all apply for the limit.
GLTAH.

Applied for half of the max as well. In for the long run.

[tango]

I am thinking of applying for about $10k. I picked up some in the institutional offer from Jarden so I have plenty. Kind of wish I had waited as they dipped below $1.30 after I bought
The institutional offer got scaled heavily. I got less than a third of what I asked for

[thebusinessman]

Applied just half of the max for the spp. Aside from having heaps of this already, I also don't believe there is enough available shares for those wanting a bigger slice of OCA at this point if we all apply for the limit.
GLTAH.

Joining the half of max club. OCA is already about 20% of my portfolio... might rationalise at some point but felt this was a good offer.

[Bjauck]

I am thinking of applying for about $10k. I picked up some in the institutional offer from Jarden so I have plenty. Kind of wish I had waited as they dipped below $1.30 after I bought
The institutional offer got scaled heavily. I got less than a third of what I asked for I didn't realise that some shareholders were given two opportunities to partake, while others (smaller shareholders presumably) were just given the one opportunity. That sounds like unfair discrimination against a class of shareholder?

[RRR]

Completed rights issue applications for 5 different holdings controlled by family - have applied for 90K in total
Fingers crossed

[winner69]

I didn't realise that some shareholders were given two opportunities to partake, while others (smaller shareholders presumably) were just given the one opportunity. That sounds like unfair discrimination against a class of shareholder?

I don’t think Oceania asked tango partake in the insto book build - I’d say tango is a Jarden’s customer and they took heaps in the book build and then hocked them off to clients. (Speculation and may be completely wrong)

How about Tomlinson eh .....he managed to increase his share of the company in the book build - as you say ‘unfair discrimination’ ,,,and he’s an independent director looking after al shareholders interests.

[Bjauck]

I don’t think Oceania asked tango partake in the insto book build - I’d say tango is a Jarden’s customer and they took heaps in the book build and then hocked them off to clients. (Speculation and may be completely wrong)

How about Tomlinson eh .....he managed to increase his share of the company in the book build - as you say ‘unfair discrimination’ ,,,and he’s an independent director looking after al shareholders interests. As opposed to a renounceable rights issue, I agree placements are unsatisfactory from the point of view of the equitable treatment of shareholders.

Why should shareholders who happen to be clients of certain institutions end up with greater access to obtaining more shares than other shareholders, who are not clients of certain institutions?

[winner69]

As opposed to a renounceable rights issue, I agree placements are unsatisfactory from the point of view of the equitable treatment of shareholders.

Why should shareholders who happen to be clients of certain institutions end up with greater access to obtaining more shares than other shareholders, who are not clients of certain institutions?

And Tomlinson would not have been able to get what he wanted .....he should have got his ‘rightful’ share as part of the book build and if he wanted more could have bought on market like a lot need to do.

Rights issues are a lot of work and expensive so seem to be avoided ....also take time and company doesn’t get the cash as fast;)

[Bjauck]

...
Rights issues are a lot of work and expensive so seem to be avoided ....also take time and company doesn’t get the cash as fast;) Being fair and equitable is not necessarily a speedy or cost-cutting exercise! Who knows, a well regulated and equitable system of listings in the NZ stock exchange may help encourage more Kiwi investors to seek non real estate investments?

These "old boy" networks are another sign that NZ has been regressing into Victorian England?

[winner69]

Being fair and equitable is not necessarily a speedy or cost-cutting exercise! Who knows, a well regulated and equitable system of listings in the NZ stock exchange may help encourage more Kiwi investors to seek non real estate investments?

These "old boy" networks are another sign that NZ has been regressing into Victorian England?

I agree with you

[BlackPeter]

I didn't realise that some shareholders were given two opportunities to partake, while others (smaller shareholders presumably) were just given the one opportunity. That sounds like unfair discrimination against a class of shareholder?

Anybody with connections to a broker could already dip into the first round (my broker invited me, but I choose to wait for the second round), whether they have been previous OCA shareholders or not.

However, I think the scaling for the first round took ones (OCA-) shareholdings as one of the scaling criteria into consideration.

Discrimination against people without a relationship to a broker - maybe, but discrimination against smaller shareholders - clearly not.

[Bjauck]

Anybody with connections to a broker could already dip into the first round (my broker invited me, but I choose to wait for the second round), whether they have been previous OCA shareholders or not.

However, I think the scaling for the first round took ones (OCA-) shareholdings as one of the scaling criteria into consideration.

Discrimination against people without a relationship to a broker - maybe, but discrimination against smaller shareholders - clearly not. I have a relationship to a broker, but did not receive an invitation. I suspect it would be mainly smaller exisiting shareholders who would not have received invitations to participate to participate in the placement. It seems to be a process that lacks the uniformity of treatment of shareholders and the transparency of a rights issue.

[BlackPeter]

I have a relationship to a broker, but did not receive an invitation. I suspect it would be mainly smaller exisiting shareholders who would not have received invitations to participate to participate in the placement. It seems to be a process that lacks the uniformity of treatment of shareholders and the transparency of a rights issue.

I think you need to let your broker know that you are interested to learn about new investment opportunities and CR's (which I did). Otherwise - it might be time for you to change the broker. I am with Chris Lee, and with his company the system works whether you are a small or a large investor.

But I guess anyway - given that it was (and still is) possible to get basically the same deal on market ... no point in shedding crocodile tears, isn't it?

Anybody who wanted to load up OCA shares in the vicinity of $1.30 could (and probably still can) do so, and anybody else has only themselves to blame for missing out on the opportunity. This has nothing to do with lack of fairness ...

[winner69]

Been told average traded price over last 4 days has been $1.3107 (5.9675m shares traded for a value of $7.8219m). If that held on Monday the 2.5% discount suggests an issue price of $1.2779.

Unless Monday is a boomer day one way or the other it looks like the new shares will be at $1.27 / $1.28. That might reduce the level of angst a bit, more than 2 cents cheaper than the institutions got in

[Rawz]

Sharesies sent me an email offering participation in the $1.30 offer.
My other broker ASB securities didn't.

If sharesies are getting an allotment then it must be fair.

The recent EVO placement.... now that was unfair!! Retail investors got completely cut out

[Bjauck]

…
But I guess anyway - given that it was (and still is) possible to get basically the same deal on market ... no point in shedding crocodile tears, isn't it?

Anybody who wanted to load up OCA shares in the vicinity of $1.30 could (and probably still can) do so, and anybody else has only themselves to blame for missing out on the opportunity. This has nothing to do with lack of fairness ... I will have to disagree with you on This. I think that shareholders should be treated the same and that this should not be dependent on their broker or whether or not they have a good relationship with one. In this case the price on market became cheaper than the discounted placement price but it could have gone the other way.

[Bjauck]

Sharesies sent me an email offering participation in the $1.30 offer.
My other broker ASB securities didn't.

If sharesies are getting an allotment then it must be fair.

The recent EVO placement.... now that was unfair!! Retail investors got completely cut out Too bad for those just dealing with ASB then.

[justakiwi]

I did too which was very unexpected. Trouble was we only had a few hours to apply and transfer funds to our wallet, which was crazy. There was literally no way I could transfer funds in time.


Sharesies sent me an email offering participation in the $1.30 offer.
My other broker ASB securities didn't.

If sharesies are getting an allotment then it must be fair.

The recent EVO placement.... now that was unfair!! Retail investors got completely cut out

[Cyclical]

Covered my bases and did a bit of both. Bought on market at 1.31 and have applied for some via the offer which, if I get them, will do some DCA for me. If I get all that I applied for, I'll still have less than 20% what I had 2 weeks ago, but at least I'm not massively overweight in them anymore relative to the rest of the portfolio and can comfortably sit back and see how things unfold over the coming weeks / months...interesting times.

[tango]

Yes, I am a client of Jardens and got invited to participate and had to make a fast decision. If I had my time again I would have waited because it happened on the day that the government announced changes to the brightline test and interest deductibility. That shouldn't affect OCA stock but people panicked and thought the value of the housing stock would go down and the share price dipped after I put my order in. The usual 20/20 hindsight!

I think the fairest way to do all share offers is a renounceable rights issue with the option to over subscribe for a pre-determined amount. I hope Oliver will be advocating for this for all shareholders. It is grossly unfair that we have to put in up to $50K with no idea how much we will get then wait up to 2 weeks to have the balance refunded.

[tommy_d]

I did too which was very unexpected. Trouble was we only had a few hours to apply and transfer funds to our wallet, which was crazy. There was literally no way I could transfer funds in time.

via sharesies, I received an email on March 23rd with details on how to take place in the share placement which had very little time to do so. However, this email also gave advance notice of the retail offer which also noted that more detail on the retail offer would come in the following week.

i then received an email about the retail offer on March 30th, with a note that the funds would need to be there and clear on April 8th.

[Mel]

via sharesies, I received an email on March 23rd with details on how to take place in the share placement which had very little time to do so. However, this email also gave advance notice of the retail offer which also noted that more detail on the retail offer would come in the following week.

i then received an email about the retail offer on March 30th, with a note that the funds would need to be there and clear on April 8th.
Incidentally, the funds need to be received by Computershare by 5pm on Monday 12 April 2021 according to the retail offer at Application - Oceania Healthcare Retail Offer (shareoffer.co.nz) (https://www.shareoffer.co.nz/OceaniaHealthcare/Application)

[Maverick]

It is wonderful seeing so many newer posters contributing on this thread with their ideas and thoughts.
Keep it coming folks.

[BlackPeter]

FWIW - the three analysts following this stock on market screener Lifted their target price just recently to $1.70 and increased their consensus recommendation to a straight "BUY".

While I do have my doubts about the capability of anybody to look into the future ... I think this optimism is a good sign capturing the current market mood.

[Habits]

RYM fell 40c or 2.58 percent on Friday to 15.10 after a brokers research note warned its new retirement village developments could take longer to become profitable. The same circumstances can/will affect OCA if not careful

[Maverick]

FWIW - the three analysts following this stock on market screener Lifted their target price just recently to $1.70 and increased their consensus recommendation to a straight "BUY".

While I do have my doubts about the capability of anybody to look into the future ... I think this optimism is a good sign capturing the current market mood.
Re market screener , I like to keep an eye on the tension between market analysts average target share price and the actual SP.
They do a nice graph under "consensus " which is on the home page top tool bar.
Of note with OCA at the moment is that the gap between target SP and actual SP has never been so large. The only exception is at the depths of the OCA covid crash and we all know how well that worked out for the brave buyers during that time.
It seems pretty clear that the gap has to close and soon. It can do it in only 2 ways...targets being revised down or SP rising up. No prizes for which one I'm picking.

[Baa_Baa]

RYM fell 40c or 2.58 percent on Friday to 15.10 after a brokers research note warned its new retirement village developments could take longer to become profitable. The same circumstances can/will affect OCA if not careful

RYM has been range trading for months and still below its covid ath. Look, these companies have loyal builders contracted out into the never never, to build their properties, supply of builders is not a problem, materials might be but there’s no evidence yet that any of them are affected

[Dlownz]

RYM has been range trading for months and still below its covid ath. Look, these companies have loyal builders contracted out into the never never, to build their properties, supply of builders is not a problem, materials might be but there’s no evidence yet that any of them are affected

It doesn't matter they have there own builders. Their building work is a mess. People at the top put unrealistic time frames on the tradesmen in all areas of working. It puts time pressure on them which then creates substandard work which flows on to each trades that follows which then balloons. In Havelock North there build cost for each house is 30% more that estimated due to time constraints. Rym is now the worst for builds compared to every retirement operator on the nz market.

[Ggcc]

It doesn't matter they have there own builders. Their building work is a mess. People at the top put unrealistic time frames on the tradesmen in all areas of working. It puts time pressure on them which then creates substandard work which flows on to each trades that follows which then balloons. In Havelock North there build cost for each house is 30% more that estimated due to time constraints. Rym is now the worst for builds compared to every retirement operator on the nz market.
They became too big for their boots too fast. They have to learn and adapt.

[Habits]

They became too big for their boots too fast. They have to learn and adapt.

Wrong thread but I have had a bit to do with Ryman execs .... absolute pain in the arse, slow to make decisions, want it all their own way and end up missing out. I guess that approach works enough to be successful

[850man]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/370466 Some promising number from SUM this morning, wonder if this will be similar for OCA - rising tide and all that.

[Bjauck]

FWIW - the three analysts following this stock on market screener Lifted their target price just recently to $1.70 and increased their consensus recommendation to a straight "BUY".

While I do have my doubts about the capability of anybody to look into the future ... I think this optimism is a good sign capturing the current market mood.
It us interesting to see that of the three brokers, the broker with the lowest target price increased their target price from $1.59 to $1.70 and that was after the Government's recent major tax policy change.

[winner69]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/370466 Some promising number from SUM this morning, wonder if this will be similar for OCA - rising tide and all that.

Think Oceania got a 40% increase in sales?

Good if SUM can help OCA share price a bit -- but market loves SUM more tha OCA as I pointed out the other day

[Bjauck]

Wrong thread

[Cyclical]

Been told average traded price over last 4 days has been $1.3107 (5.9675m shares traded for a value of $7.8219m). If that held on Monday the 2.5% discount suggests an issue price of $1.2779.

Unless Monday is a boomer day one way or the other it looks like the new shares will be at $1.27 / $1.28. That might reduce the level of angst a bit, more than 2 cents cheaper than the institutions got in

Today it was 1.327 (according to Sharsies) so gives us an average of 1.31396 over the 5 days. Should land us near as dammit to 1.28 (1.281111...don't suppose they'd be kind enough to round it down to whole cents?).

[value_investor]

The numbers are incredibly strong but lets keep in mind OCA increased sales by 44% and still reported a decrease in realised development margin. SUM have also said they expected softer margins in the future so I understand the whimper in price movements.

[Greekwatchdog]

For Bar latest targets issued this morning for sector.

Oeania Healthcare OCA 1.32 1.80 13.4 20.0 OUTPERFORM
Arvida ARV 1.70 2.15 13.9 21.4 OUTPERFORM
Ryman Healthcare RYM 15.00 14.10 24.6 44.7 NEUTRAL
Summerset SUM 12.05 13.25 18.5 35.2 NEUTRAL

[winner69]

For Bar latest targets issued this morning for sector.

Oeania Healthcare OCA 1.32 1.80 13.4 20.0 OUTPERFORM
Arvida ARV 1.70 2.15 13.9 21.4 OUTPERFORM
Ryman Healthcare RYM 15.00 14.10 24.6 44.7 NEUTRAL
Summerset SUM 12.05 13.25 18.5 35.2 NEUTRAL

Oceania definitely the place to be ...going to be the star of the sector next 12 months or ...past the point of inflection and all that

OCA ... can’t have too many ...or whatever the saying is.

[Greekwatchdog]

W69, They are saying the care side is the place to be in the sector..Hence upgrade for ARV

[mike2020]

A good read

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/124801751/lets-not-confuse-retirement-village-living-with-homeownership

[Mudfish]

For Bar latest targets issued this morning for sector.

Oeania Healthcare OCA 1.32 1.80 13.4 20.0 OUTPERFORM
Arvida ARV 1.70 2.15 13.9 21.4 OUTPERFORM
Ryman Healthcare RYM 15.00 14.10 24.6 44.7 NEUTRAL
Summerset SUM 12.05 13.25 18.5 35.2 NEUTRAL

hey G Dog, thanks for sharing figures. Appreciated. Any chance you can explain what the 4 different figures mean? A bit slow here. Cheers

[Greekwatchdog]

Mudfish yeah sure..

Current Price
Target Price
12 month forward PE
12 month forward EV/Annuity EBITDA

[winner69]

W69, They are saying the care side is the place to be in the sector..Hence upgrade for ARV


And with all those premium care suites coming on stream Oceania well positioned to capitalise on this

[dabsman]

Very happy to still be overweight in this sector

[justakiwi]

Which is exactly what I have been saying for months. Sometimes you don’t have to be an accountant, have a finance degree, or make impressive charts and spreadsheets. All you need is some insight into aged care and some common sense.


W69, They are saying the care side is the place to be in the sector..Hence upgrade for ARV

[Greekwatchdog]

Extract ....

Key take-outs from our recent aged care tour
We recently visited 11 villages in the prospering retirement area of the North Island's golden triangle. Two villages in Hamilton, one in
Cambridge and eight in Tauranga. The village mix was dominated by the listed operators (ARV; 3, SUM; 1, RYM; 2 and OCA; 2),
however, we were also able to gain insights into the private market with three villages owned by private operators.
Key takeaways from our aged care tour
Construction issues evident but far less significantthan expected: Given the recent newsflow surrounding lead times and supply
shortages for numerous building products we assumed this may start to impact build rates. However, while the operators
acknowledged pressures through increasing construction costs and lead times, the impact was far less material than
expected. There was nothing to suggest that recent pressures will have an impact on near-term build rates.
Very strong demand supported by housing market; little to suggest it will slow near-term: Demand anecdotes, that there has
been little slowdown to sales activity following the pent-up demand surge post lockdowns, were consistent across all operators.
Some operators are now beginning to accelerate development plans to keep up with demand, and the strong housing market will
continue to aid sales activity.
Almost all premium care beds are being sold under an ORA: Given the relative infancy of the care ORA offering, the resident
demand profile versus a care bed with a premium accommodation charge (PAC) is still relatively untested. However, amongst the
villages we visited it was clear that all (or nearly all) care beds that can be sold under an ORA are. Our previous assumption was that
~80% of premium care beds would be sold under an ORA but this now appears conservative.
Limited resident resistance to "double-dipping": A clear and viable risk for the care ORA offering is either resident or government
push back to aged care operators receiving deferred management fee (DMF) proceeds from residents who purchase the right to
occupy a care unit after previously occupying an ILU within the same village. While this could have an impact long-term there was
little to suggest that it is an issue for residents or will impact demand. Although, we did note a number of references from sales
managers to increased conversations about DMF amongst family members for those moving to a care suite.
Aged care staffing shortages are an issue: Aged care operations have been under pressure for some time, driven by a multitude of
issues, one of which has been a lack of staff. Our tour suggests there has been little change to this trend and if anything staffing
issues have got worse, accentuated by a lack of immigrants. Some operators are now finding it increasingly difficult to attract New
Zealander's given the lack of government funding relative to other areas of the healthcare system.
Emphasising the importance of the continuum of care: A consistent message across all operators was the importance of the full
care continuum, it appears resident demand and desire for integrated care has lifted materially post lockdowns. While this isn't a
new trend, it emphasises the importance of a strong care offering despite the declining profitability.
Whitepaper risk perceived as low: Newsflow around the Commission for Financial Capability (CFFC) draft whitepaper released in
December has yet to abate, if anything it has increased over the past month. Numerous suggestions have been made that the
retirement village model in New Zealand requires dramatic change. As consistent with other anecdotes across the industry, this
suggestion was quickly abolished by all operators we visited. While it was acknowledged there is the need to tighten regulation
around exit fees and the timing of payments, the messaging was very clear that the potential introduction of capital gains would
undermine a sector that has very high resident satisfaction levels and continues to provide high quality care.
Pent up house price inflation still to come: Our recent analysis suggests retirement village unit pricing has started the year
strongly, driven predominately by SUM (see our report titled "Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index", published 10 March
2021 for more detail). Given the material shift in New Zealand house prices over the past year (c. +20%), the retirement village
operators have plenty of room to increase prices further. Numerous anecdotes on our tour suggested that while prices have
increased modestly in recent months there are more price rises on the horizon as some operators opted to delay pricing decisions
in light of continued COVID-19 uncertainty through the second half of CY20.

[dompf]

Which is exactly what I have been saying for months. Sometimes you don’t have to be an accountant, have a finance degree, or make impressive charts and spreadsheets. All you need is some insight into aged care and some common sense.

care side for me - for my parents; I’m happy to pay additional to make sure my loved ones are looked after. It’s more of an attraction than fiscal will ever be. I’m long on OCA and the sector.

[Mudfish]

Thanks - G Dog

[44wishlists]

One of the draw backs for OCA is that the company is very focused on the care-side of its business.It is absolutely good for the residents, but from a investment perspective, at the end of the day, profit is often what gets investors' money. The report also pointed out lack of staffs and funding from the govt are presenting challenges to the sector. And because of OCA's business model, it is suffering the most out of the 4 listed retirement village operators, and this has been reflected on the SP performance. And in the previous couple years, OCA looked very promising, but in the end, they are selling more, but making less profit.

[850man]

One of the draw backs for OCA is that the company is very focused on the care-side of its business.It is absolutely good for the residents, but from a investment perspective, at the end of the day, profit is often what gets investors' money. The report also pointed out lack of staffs and funding from the govt are presenting challenges to the sector. And because of OCA's business model, it is suffering the most out of the 4 listed retirement village operators, and this has been reflected on the SP performance. And in the previous couple years, OCA looked very promising, but in the end, they are selling more, but making less profit.
Their pricing has not moved with the market, an opportunity for the new finance man at the helm now to review that. Gives them room to move in what may become a tighter market with Cindy's recent meddling

[glenscape]

I realised that the DCF from shareclarity for OCA was not available. is there anyone knows why?

[bottomfeeder]

I'm in for the long haul. I applied for $50k. Wonder how much I will get. The said they would accept oversubscription. I wonder how much.

[BlackPeter]

I realised that the DCF from shareclarity for OCA was not available. is there anyone knows why?

There are many NZX and ASX companies not covered by Share clarity. Some of them are very sucessful but have limited stock market liquidity (like CDI or MCK), some have more liquidity and are well hyped (like TRA) and others again are really big and some of them more and some less successful (like e.g. IFT, ANZ, NAB, TPW).

I guess - as anybody else, Share Clarity needs to decide at some stage what to do and what not to do :): Nobody can do everything - and I would not use the fact whether Share Clarity covers them as indicator for or against any company.

[Greekwatchdog]

Oversubscribed https://www.nzx.com/announcements/370674

[winner69]

Oversubscribed https://www.nzx.com/announcements/370674

So it’s true ...you can’t have too many Oceania

Jeez applications for $50m .....and only $20m available .....hope they all buy on msrket now to push the share price up to Forbar’s target

You can’t have too many OCA

[justakiwi]

Will be interesting to see how they treat the little guys like me, who only applied for a minuscule amount. Maybe they will favour “significant” shareholders over “drop in the ocean” holders?


Oversubscribed https://www.nzx.com/announcements/370674

[The Punter]

Thinking exactly like you are Justakiwi

[winner69]

Will be interesting to see how they treat the little guys like me, who only applied for a minuscule amount. Maybe they will favour “significant” shareholders over “drop in the ocean” holders?

They said they would be fair

So hopefully both you and beagle will get your ‘fair share’ :). (Relative to holdings and not amount thrown into the pot)

[justakiwi]

Great minds think alike ;)



They said they would be fair

So hopefully both you and beagle will get your ‘fair share’ :). (Relative to holdings and not amount thrown into the pot)

[jg8512]

Great minds think alike ;)

the offer document said "Oceania Healthcare is seeking to raise up to NZ$20 million under this Retail Offer, withthe ability for Oceania Healthcare to accept oversubscriptions at its discretion".

but no mention of increasing the size of the issue in today's announcement. Given the size of the over-subscription, not doing so is very poor form I think. Further poor treatment of retail shareholders

[justakiwi]

They also didn’t say they wouldn’t accept the over-subscriptions. Maybe we just wait and see.


the offer document said "Oceania Healthcare is seeking to raise up to NZ$20 million under this Retail Offer, withthe ability for Oceania Healthcare to accept oversubscriptions at its discretion".

but no mention of increasing the size of the issue in today's announcement. Given the size of the over-subscription, not doing so is very poor form I think. Further poor treatment of retail shareholders

[mike2020]

Cant win with some people, OCA make up a large part of my portfolio and I had no spare cash to apply and I am still happy.

[BlackPeter]

They also didn’t say they wouldn’t accept the over-subscriptions. Maybe we just wait and see.

Actually - they did. Just chew yourself through the Appendix 2 A they released today (https://announcements.nzx.com/detail/370675). They are applying to create new shares for exactly $20m (you need to know how many shares they had outstanding prior to this CR, subtract this number from the number of new shares they claim and multiply that with the price per new share). $20m - no oversubscription.

Only question left is - how they distribute these new shares.

[jg8512]

They also didn’t say they wouldn’t accept the over-subscriptions. Maybe we just wait and see.

yes, agree we have got to wait and see. They did say "While Oceania Healthcare has attemptedto make the Retail Offer as fair as possible for EligibleShareholders by increasing the individual application capfrom NZ$15,000 (the limit for shareholder share purchaseplans under the NZX Listing Rules) to NZ$50,000 and by providing that any scaling will have regardto individual shareholdings at the relevant Record Date ... the Retail Offer is not inaccordance with your proportionate shareholding."

I think they have to increase the offer size, otherwise they'll effectively undermine the claim that they tied to be as fair as possible including by increasing the cap from $15k. They can't really say that, not increase the offer size, and then still cap allocations at, say, $15k.

Yes, of course, we all know that this was not a proportionate or rights offer.

[jg8512]

Actually - they did. Just chew yourself through the Appendix 2 A they released today (https://announcements.nzx.com/detail/370675). They are applying to create new shares for exactly $20m (you need to know how many shares they had outstanding prior to this CR, subtract this number from the number of new shares they claim and multiply that with the price per new share). $20m - no oversubscription.

Only question left is - how they distribute these new shares.

sorry BP our posts crossed. good spot. yip, no over-subscription. Poor, IMHO.

I did split my request over a few holdings ... I wonder how they treat it?

[justakiwi]

Thanks for that. I’m a very happy small holder right now. If I get the few I applied for, I will be be even happier, but if not, no worries :)



Actually - they did. Just chew yourself through the Appendix 2 A they released today (https://announcements.nzx.com/detail/370675). They are applying to create new shares for exactly $20m (you need to know how many shares they had outstanding prior to this CR, subtract this number from the number of new shares they claim and multiply that with the price per new share). $20m - no oversubscription.

Only question left is - how they distribute these new shares.

[winner69]

Well, if property prices are going to collapse they need to collapse from an ever high high

REINZ March report

Median price March up 5.9% from Feb and 24.3% over last 12 months

https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/Statistic%20Documents/2021/Residential/March/REINZ%20Monthly%20Property%20Report%20-%20March%202021.pdf

[850man]

Even if prices drop (trying not to scare myself with "collapse"), will it stop people buying into OCA accomodation? Likely not as their driver for moving from own home into OCA will not have changed, they may just not be getting as much as they would have liked for their present home.

[Panda-NZ-]

Aging medicine may come up with something effective by the time boomers need OCA level care. let's hope.

Nanomedicine plus some important advances in cell reprogramming have been made. It's certinately more worthy of scientific study.

[Cyclical]

Actually - they did. Just chew yourself through the Appendix 2 A they released today (https://announcements.nzx.com/detail/370675). They are applying to create new shares for exactly $20m (you need to know how many shares they had outstanding prior to this CR, subtract this number from the number of new shares they claim and multiply that with the price per new share). $20m - no oversubscription.

Only question left is - how they distribute these new shares.

Could it be that the option of oversubscriptions was poo pooed upon by the big boys who had to pay the full $1.30 per share? Unlikely, but just a thought.

[jg8512]

allotments are done. pleasantly surprised - given the extent of over-subscription. looks like they gave a high weighting to size of existing holdings. some will be disappointed though.

[Greekwatchdog]

Yes me too. Feel happy with what I received.

[jallison]

Yes me too. Feel happy with what I received.
How do you find what you have been allotted

[GAR]

I applied for the equivalent of 20% of my existing holding and received ~13%.

[GAR]

How do you find what you have been allotted

I logged onto Computershare.

[Wheelspanner]

Me too got only 13% of my holding.

[winner69]

Seems most got about 12%/13% of their holdings irespective of how much more they applied for

Seems everybody got a 'fair deal' then (ie not suffering any dilution)

[Pegasus2000]

Applied 50k. Got 12.18%. Seems not relevant to the current size of holding.

[Cyclical]

Peeps, noob question alert... So last week I sold all of my OCA shares directly from within the computershare site. It's not really what I wanted to do, ideally would have kept circa 20% but the computershare site only let's you sell all or nothing and I was caught up in the sky is falling hysteria and hit sell lol. Anyway, given the record date was the 22nd and I was a holder at that point, am I still eligible for the offer despite not being a current holder? FWIW I got the email reminder today too.


You should still be eligible for the offer if you did hold them at record date - however - your current nil holding may or may not have some impact on their scaling decisions (I don't think they published their scaling criteria, and some companies use as well the recent share holding as criterion ...). Given the current SP - why don't you just buy as many shares back on market as you want, if you think that (around) 130 is a good price? Just saw - 130 was the closing price today anyway.

I can confirm that I did get allocated all that I'd asked for (was only ~5% of my original holding), despite selling the whole lot at the beginning of April. So the record date must be all that mattered.

[thebusinessman]

Applied 25k and got 21%

[dabsman]

Looks like I got 100% of what I asked. Not sure why

** Actually 88.6% after checking what was taken from account

[glenscape]

applied 50k but received 10.2%.

[theace]

Can't seem to find a transaction statement on Computershare .... where is everyone checking?

[GAR]

Can't seem to find a transaction statement on Computershare .... where is everyone checking?
'Activity' header then 'Transactions' tab then click of Oceania...

[theace]

Ok, saw that ... but only states 'movement' doesn't seem to provide a document/statement.

[FatTed]

I also got 13% of my holding

[bottomfeeder]

Applied for 50k, got just over 12%. You would think that they would have allowed over subscriptions. It would have been a cheap form of capital, and pay off some debt. Considering also the retail raising wasn't underwritten, and the institution raising cost them an underwriting fee.

[Shareguy]

Have been a long-term original holder. Decided not to participate in the latest cap raise due to concerns over house price direction and ability to control costs.

[Cyclical]

Have been a long-term original holder. Decided not to participate in the latest cap raise due to concerns over house price direction and ability to control costs.

Beagle's back lol! Just kidding. These are valid concerns and part of the reason why I've got less than 20% of what I had a month ago. I may well regret that move, but was way too overweight in OCA and felt it was time for some broader diversification.

[winner69]

Have been a long-term original holder. Decided not to participate in the latest cap raise due to concerns over house price direction and ability to control costs.

Retirement sector not the place to be since the government housing fix announced late March

Sector average down 2,7% while NZX up 2.9%

ARV the star +4.0% with OCA -4.3% / SUM -6.6% and RYM -7.8%


Your concerns might be well founded

[bottomfeeder]

OCA only down because of the issue at $1.30

[Old mate]

Just saw an oca ad on tv one during the news. Haven't seen one before.

[dabsman]

So had time to check my paperwork in the weekend. I have heaps of OCA so just asked for $15,000 from the placement and I got the full $15,000 in shares. Requested via ASB Margin team. Not sure why I wasn't scaled but happy with that amount. Glad I didn't ask for $50,000 and no scaling...

I wonder why it wasn't scaled?

[winner69]

So had time to check my paperwork in the weekend. I have heaps of OCA so just asked for $15,000 from the placement and I got the full $15,000 in shares. Requested via ASB Margin team. Not sure why I wasn't scaled but happy with that amount. Glad I didn't ask for $50,000 and no scaling...

I wonder why it wasn't scaled?


You probably got about 13% or less of your heaps of shares ......you must have more than 90k shares:t_up:

Scaling done on holdings ..not on what you applied for.

[HITMAN]

Yeah I received 13.3% of my holding. I guess I’m happy, more would’ve been nice.

when are they sending the remaining cash back to my account.

[Pegasus2000]

Yeah I received 13.3% of my holding. I guess I’m happy, more would’ve been nice.

when are they sending the remaining cash back to my account.

Thursday 22nd

[macduffy]

And another 13.3% of my holding here

[theace]

And another 13.3% of my bolding here. 13.3% here as well

[dabsman]

You probably got about 13% or less of your heaps of shares ......you must have more than 90k shares:t_up:

Scaling done on holdings ..not on what you applied for.

OHHHH! Sorry I thought when people saying 13% it was 13% of the amount they asked for. OK thanks for the clarification

[thebusinessman]

Yeah I received 13.3% of my holding. I guess I’m happy, more would’ve been nice.

when are they sending the remaining cash back to my account.



Do they magically know where I sent it from or am I supposed to have an acc # on file with them?

[dibble]

Do they magically know where I sent it from or am I supposed to have an acc # on file with them?

If you were offered some then you must be on their registrar's list as a holder and if you are on said list you should get your refund pd to the account the registrar have for your various dividends. That's the theory anyway. Works in my case.

[Chinesekiwi]

Asked for $30K worth and received that amount .....oh my I hold way too many OCA but it's a medium to long term hold.

[bottomfeeder]

Asked for $30K worth and received that amount .....oh my I hold way too many OCA but it's a medium to long term hold.

You hold about the same as me, its a really long term hold for me. As inflation bites, I expect to keep pace, plus dividends. At least thats the theory. Mind you I am nervous about holding such a large holding.

[dreamcatcher]

Lets see where these Retirement stock go

Updated ------4/6--....-6/7-----...-5/8.........8/9.........7/10..........7/11.........3/12........10/1........18/2.......10/3..........16/4

Arvida .........$1.37....$1.48 .....$1.60......$1.65.....$1.77........$1.78...... $1 .67.....$1.75......$1.81.....$1.70........$1.80
Summerset...$6.34....$6.73......$7.80.....$8.56... ..$9.15.......$10 .50...$10.83....$12.35....$12.92....$12.75.....$11 .90
Ryman.........$13.35..$13.04 ...$12.77....$13.79....$14.85.....$14.7 0...$14.69.....$15.05....$15.75...$15.44.....$14.4 7
Oceania........$0.94....$0.95 .....$1.03.....$1.04.....$1.20........$1.36......$ 1.29......$1.46......$1.49......$1.40........$1.33
Metlifecare....$4.28....$5.76 .....$5.92.....$5.94.....$5.98 .......$6.00......

These Building Stocks have all declined recently except Arvida.... Property prices holding interesting game but appears housing momentum changing "The overall sales rate at Barfoot & Thompson's auction has declined for five weeks in a row"

Hold OCA........ Did not buy more

[macduffy]

Summerset...$6.34....$6.73......$7.80.....$8.56... ..$9.15.......$10 .50...$10.83....$12.35....$12.92....$12.75.....$11 .90

No complaints about that one, at least!

:)

[newtrader]

They sure are taking their time to process the refunds from the share offer. Has anyone received theirs?

[justakiwi]

As above - Thursday 22nd.


They sure are taking their time to process the refunds from the share offer. Has anyone received theirs?

[Grimy]

Not due till Thursday as in the offer document. I don't know if that's Thursday, or Thursday night.

Sorry JAK. Missed your answer to NT.

[tim23]

Not due till Thursday as in the offer document. I don't know if that's Thursday, or Thursday night.

Sorry JAK. Missed your answer to NT.

Dividends usually arrive about mid day so that should be a guide.

[Pegasus2000]

Got refund now.

[Baa_Baa]

For the traders, since the bounce off 200MA, the 9/21 MA crossover up confirmed, medium term downtrend line breakout (up) today, close at open price on day of issue announce. Short term up trend in place. MACD crossed up a week or so ago. RSI neutral rising. Good volumes recently, up from 200-250k to 715k average daily (pickup started at 200MA bounce). Gap above to $1.39 will close (gap theory). 50/100MA watchers will get the FOMO from about now up to their confident buy-back SP. Forbar upgraded target SP $1.80 'Outperform'.

[Snow Leopard]

For the traders, since the bounce off 200MA, the 9/21 MA crossover up confirmed, medium term downtrend line breakout (up) today, close at open price on day of issue announce. Short term up trend in place. MACD crossed up a week or so ago. RSI neutral rising. Good volumes recently, up from 200-250k to 715k average daily (pickup started at 200MA bounce). Gap above to $1.39 will close (gap theory). 50/100MA watchers will get the FOMO from about now up to their confident buy-back SP. Forbar upgraded target SP $1.80 'Outperform'.

Translation: Maybe going up.

Disc: Hold & think it is currently under priced and fair value is $1.60 something (I note the advanced search function is still "not performing to it's previous standard")

https://i.natgeofe.com/k/cd962d91-1791-42b2-a25b-7d56a6b23811/snow-leopard-cub.jpg?w=600
National Geographic Kids (https://kids.nationalgeographic.com/animals/mammals/facts/snow-leopard)

[iamaskier]

If you were offered some then you must be on their registrar's list as a holder and if you are on said list you should get your refund pd to the account the registrar have for your various dividends. That's the theory anyway. Works in my case.

As in Computershare would have my bank details and it would come back via them? I can't actually remember what details I supplied them. I opted for DRP so have never actually received a $ divi per se. Haven't received my refund yet (I'm sure I will), but it has made me think about how this mechanism actually works?

EDIT: Have just seen you can fill out 'Banking Details' in your Computershare profile. Mine was empty, which is probably a bit of a pain in the bum for them if that's what they use to refund. Will fill it out and see what happens.

[850man]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/371163

Directors buying in, not massive dollars but going in the right direction.

[Alpha]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/371163

Directors buying in, not massive dollars but going in the right direction.


Market looks to like the news.

[winner69]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/371163

Directors buying in, not massive dollars but going in the right direction.

At least they had the decency to partake in the capital raise

[BlackPeter]

At least they had the decency to partake in the capital raise

Some of them participated even twice :p ;

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/370170

If I look at the number of shares some of them gobbled up I am wondering whether "greedy" could be a better way to describe it than "decent", but yes - Greg (and Elizabeth and Mark) clearly seem to think that OCA shares are cheap around $1.33.

Must be all good :t_up: ;

[Greekwatchdog]

Nice to feel the love. Looking forward to FY 21 annoucement

[dompf]

Some of them participated even twice :p ;

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/370170

If I look at the number of shares some of them gobbled up I am wondering whether "greedy" could be a better way to describe it than "decent", but yes - Greg (and Elizabeth and Mark) clearly seem to think that OCA shares are cheap around $1.33.

Must be all good :t_up: ;

Management buying in large (and twice) is a vote of confidence - clear the market likes it. Looking good

[winner69]

For the traders, since the bounce off 200MA, the 9/21 MA crossover up confirmed, medium term downtrend line breakout (up) today, close at open price on day of issue announce. Short term up trend in place. MACD crossed up a week or so ago. RSI neutral rising. Good volumes recently, up from 200-250k to 715k average daily (pickup started at 200MA bounce). Gap above to $1.39 will close (gap theory). 50/100MA watchers will get the FOMO from about now up to their confident buy-back SP. Forbar upgraded target SP $1.80 'Outperform'.

Yep signs were there for todays action -- one of the stars of the NZX

Punters need to get in quick as it races to new all time highs ...and then post profit announcement up to 180 odd

Can't have too many OCA - or whatever the saying is

[Maverick]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/371163

Directors buying in, not massive dollars but going in the right direction.
These purchases where capped at $50k maximum per entity. So dispite Greg , et al having $mega shares already , this is all they were entitled to apply for.

[porkandpuha]

Good finish to the week. Guess those socialist policies weren't so bad for OCA after all ;)

[850man]

Up 5.2% at close today. Very nice

[Baa_Baa]

Yep signs were there for todays action -- one of the stars of the NZX

Punters need to get in quick as it races to new all time highs ...and then post profit announcement up to 180 odd

Can't have too many OCA - or whatever the saying is

Bounced off the 200MA, sliced through the 50MA today and finished right on the 100MA, on very good volume again. Feel the FOMO, what a lovely day.

:t_up:

[Snow Leopard]

Bounced off the 200MA, sliced through the 50MA today and finished right on the 100MA, on very good volume again. Feel the FOMO, what a lovely day.

:t_up:

Translation: He was right.

https://i.insider.com/5da4dda4045a312a8a2784c2?width=600&format=jpeg&auto=webp
18 stunning photos of rare Snow Leopards (https://www.insider.com/rare-photos-of-snow-leopards-2019-10)

[winner69]

Bounced off the 200MA, sliced through the 50MA today and finished right on the 100MA, on very good volume again. Feel the FOMO, what a lovely day.

:t_up:

Above the Anchored VWAP as well .... that's good

And the Fractal Chaos Bands look pretty good :t_up:

Wonder how much positiveness there will be in the lead up to the full year profit announcement

[winner69]

Re market screener , I like to keep an eye on the tension between market analysts average target share price and the actual SP.
They do a nice graph under "consensus " which is on the home page top tool bar.
Of note with OCA at the moment is that the gap between target SP and actual SP has never been so large. The only exception is at the depths of the OCA covid crash and we all know how well that worked out for the brave buyers during that time.
It seems pretty clear that the gap has to close and soon. It can do it in only 2 ways...targets being revised down or SP rising up. No prizes for which one I'm picking.

Good call there Maverick ....the share price heading up

As target price should be higher than actual (forward looking) it’s not hard to see -

1 - OCA share price closing the gap even further over the next month ..and reaching say 165/170

2 - Analysts then raising targets to over 2 bucks post results announcement ....and OCA share price following it up

Good times ahead

Chart doesn’t show the big rise yesterday ...that would make it look better

[Beau]

Nice to see the positivity towards Oceania this Anzac weekend compared to Easter Weekend yes great Company heading forward as always.

[RTM]

Good finish to the week. Guess those socialist policies weren't so bad for OCA after all ;)

Bit soon to judge I think PnP.....lets see how house prices are doing at the end of winter.


Up 5.2% at close today. Very nice

Yes....very nice. Pity I sold half of mine. Still more than 3% of portfolio tho.

[tim23]

Bit soon to judge I think PnP.....lets see how house prices are doing at the end of winter.



Yes....very nice. Pity I sold half of mine. Still more than 3% of portfolio tho.

I reckon most people contemplating move to a retirement village have owned their property for some time so will have some nice gains already made so not sure if its a big factor at all.

[Gunner]

I reckon most people contemplating move to a retirement village have owned their property for some time so will have some nice gains already made so not sure if its a big factor at all.

Considering house prices have gone up 20% plus in 12 months, the market has over reacted imo.

[dibble]

I reckon most people contemplating move to a retirement village have owned their property for some time so will have some nice gains already made so not sure if its a big factor at all.

Too much focus on house prices i reckon. Sure there is a relationship, but we're talking about retirees in the the upper quartile who probably have a few shares and whatnot. There are more of them and they are living longer and chances are their kids are largely financially independent so they are more minded to spend... and this is a scarce, premium product. Whatever house prices do I see long term unit demand exceeding supply (besides the odd blip).

No idea what happens once the boomers are all dead but methinks the z-gen will be even less keen to retire in a drafty bungalow mowing lawns.

Perhaps most OCA shareholders wont care much by then.

[Maverick]

With the annual result coming up soon I'm willing to share my expectations and what I'm looking for in case others are interested. With 4 years of data now, things are getting better understood and more predictable. There is a lot of info and my opinions in this post so I hope there is some useful stuff to you here.


Let's go….
I no longer consider the underlying profit as the main yard stick as I have since learned that this single measure, at this development stage of the pipeline, is too crude. Overall It is an amalgamation of the 3 separate OCA income streams ;Care, Village and New Build margins. These 3 income strands are evolving at different paces which need to be treated separately to see a clearer picture.
As an example let's use the recent 1HY21 profits ;
Care (+16% PCP)
Village (+20% PCP)
New build profits (-9% PCP) down as expected due to location of deliveries.
As a result the 2 most important longer term profit engines (Care and especially Village) are growing nicely but are masked by the temporarily falling New Build profit resulting in a flat overall Underlying Profit. (-1.5% PCP)


Note that it takes some personal effort to manually separate out the New Build margin profit from the rest of the Village profit as OCA reports these 2 strands under the one total of “Village”.


These key 3 sets of numbers within the P+L need to be viewed individually, they are far more important than the underlying profit itself, at least for now.
These numbers are telling the story of how the model is functioning.


Let's face it, 3 years so far of about $50m underlying profit and probably another ~$50m FY21 does not look good... but….provided OCA continue on its current path, significant and orderly profit growth will almost magically start appearing on the bottom line next 1HY22 onwards. Basically the continuing strong growth in Care and Village profits are on the cusp of overwhelming the currently lagging New Build profit.


Here are the key figures that I am expecting which will verify that OCA is on track. These numbers are annualized and compared to FY20;


Underlying profit ; c.$49-$52m. Could actually be a little higher as property sales /prices might surprise to the upside.*


Care profit; $23.3m (up 21% from $19.2m). This solid upturn is essential as we have already passed the point of “care” inflection and I expect to see continued linear growth from here. Essentially proves the new concept of breaking down old rest homes and rebuilding with the modern “ cares suites” model is working and becoming increasingly profitable.
This increase needs to be on track otherwise it will validate Beagles concerns of rampant care cost ever rising which will continue to nullify the other care gains.


Care DMF; $12m (up 54% from $7.8m). A very important sub-number within `Care profit`. It's vital to care profit to continue seeing this number grow strongly as it is the engine room for future “Care” growth.


Village DMF; 28.6m (up33% from $21.4m). This is essentially where 75% of the long term profit gains for OCA will come from (not the “care” stuff like many might think). This is the single most important number in this FY result.


New Sales; $32m (down 8% from $34.3m). The falling margins are expected and not an issue as the current offerings are mostly outside Auckland for the next few years.


Resales; $20.4 m (up 76 % from $11.5m) .A high % rise this FY because of covid causing a low base in FY20 . While this resales figure is important, it is also very predictable as it is mostly a combo of the last 5-7 years of house price rises (OCA itemises this for us each FY as “embedded value” ) and client churn.So kinda hard to get this wrong as its a result of historical stuff already known.
Personally, I will be particularly interested in the apartment resale prices after last HY sales prices being surprisingly low. I have accepted for now that it's due the small volume sales numbers (40) temporarily skewing the results to this low price with greater/lumpy sales in low value areas, lets see….


As long as these numbers above are somewhere in the ballpark , most especially village DMFs, then this will underscore the growth that's already underway (with the exception of “new sales” which I expect to continue to moderately fall further next FY, the a strong uptick thereafter when their Auckland offerings get started )then the FY22 is set up for an underlying profit of around $60-$65m, thats up 30% and the year after that , and FY23 is looking similar.
The next 2 x FY`s will be when the large bottom line profit growth (~30%) will be followed by more moderate growth after that (~15-20%). Interestingly, just as the other 3 analysts are also expecting.
Unless these new numbers disappoint but I can't see how they can, I maintain the SP should be just shy of $2 this time next year.

[Beau]

Maverick Thanks for putting time in with your view on the 3 seperate divisions all bodes well for future.

[RupertBear]

With the annual result coming up soon I'm willing to share my expectations and what I'm looking for in case others are interested. With 4 years of data now, things are getting better understood and more predictable. There is a lot of info and my opinions in this post so I hope there is some useful stuff to you here.


Let's go….
I no longer consider the underlying profit as the main yard stick as I have since learned that this single measure, at this development stage of the pipeline, is too crude. Overall It is an amalgamation of the 3 separate OCA income streams ;Care, Village and New Build margins. These 3 income strands are evolving at different paces which need to be treated separately to see a clearer picture.
As an example let's use the recent 1HY21 profits ;
Care (+16% PCP)
Village (+20% PCP)
New build profits (-9% PCP) down as expected due to location of deliveries.
As a result the 2 most important longer term profit engines (Care and especially Village) are growing nicely but are masked by the temporarily falling New Build profit resulting in a flat overall Underlying Profit. (-1.5% PCP)


Note that it takes some personal effort to manually separate out the New Build margin profit from the rest of the Village profit as OCA reports these 2 strands under the one total of “Village”.


These key 3 sets of numbers within the P+L need to be viewed individually, they are far more important than the underlying profit itself, at least for now.
These numbers are telling the story of how the model is functioning.


Let's face it, 3 years so far of about $50m underlying profit and probably another ~$50m FY21 does not look good... but….provided OCA continue on its current path, significant and orderly profit growth will almost magically start appearing on the bottom line next 1HY22 onwards. Basically the continuing strong growth in Care and Village profits are on the cusp of overwhelming the currently lagging New Build profit.


Here are the key figures that I am expecting which will verify that OCA is on track. These numbers are annualized and compared to FY20;


Underlying profit ; c.$49-$52m. Could actually be a little higher as property sales /prices might surprise to the upside.*


Care profit; $23.3m (up 21% from $19.2m). This solid upturn is essential as we have already passed the point of “care” inflection and I expect to see continued linear growth from here. Essentially proves the new concept of breaking down old rest homes and rebuilding with the modern “ cares suites” model is working and becoming increasingly profitable.
This increase needs to be on track otherwise it will validate Beagles concerns of rampant care cost ever rising which will continue to nullify the other care gains.


Care DMF; $12m (up 54% from $7.8m). A very important sub-number within `Care profit`. It's vital to care profit to continue seeing this number grow strongly as it is the engine room for future “Care” growth.


Village DMF; 28.6m (up33% from $21.4m). This is essentially where 75% of the long term profit gains for OCA will come from (not the “care” stuff like many might think). This is the single most important number in this FY result.


New Sales; $32m (down 8% from $34.3m). The falling margins are expected and not an issue as the current offerings are mostly outside Auckland for the next few years.


Resales; $20.4 m (up 76 % from $11.5m) .A high % rise this FY because of covid causing a low base in FY20 . While this resales figure is important, it is also very predictable as it is mostly a combo of the last 5-7 years of house price rises (OCA itemises this for us each FY as “embedded value” ) and client churn.So kinda hard to get this wrong as its a result of historical stuff already known.
Personally, I will be particularly interested in the apartment resale prices after last HY sales prices being surprisingly low. I have accepted for now that it's due the small volume sales numbers (40) temporarily skewing the results to this low price with greater/lumpy sales in low value areas, lets see….


As long as these numbers above are somewhere in the ballpark , most especially village DMFs, then this will underscore the growth that's already underway (with the exception of “new sales” which I expect to continue to moderately fall further next FY, the a strong uptick thereafter when their Auckland offerings get started )then the FY22 is set up for an underlying profit of around $60-$65m, thats up 30% and the year after that , and FY23 is looking similar.
The next 2 x FY`s will be when the large bottom line profit growth (~30%) will be followed by more moderate growth after that (~15-20%). Interestingly, just as the other 3 analysts are also expecting.
Unless these new numbers disappoint but I can't see how they can, I maintain the SP should be just shy of $2 this time next year.

Fabulous post Maverick, thanks for generously sharing your thoughts with us. Much appreciated :)

[Bjauck]

Maverick, Thanks too from me.

“Care profit; $23.3m (up 21% from $19.2m). This solid upturn is essential as we have already passed the point of “care” inflection and I expect to see continued linear growth from here. Essentially proves the new concept of breaking down old rest homes and rebuilding with the modern “ cares suites” model is working and becoming increasingly profitable”

I think premium care rooms and care suites within rest homes will be a key market too. Just from my observations, many of my older relatives and their friends do not want to move to a village unit yet they accept they may need, at some stage, the care offered by a rest home. They would have the means to pay for the extras, including privacy and space, of a premium room or suite beyond the bare bones accommodation provided from the government rest home funding.

[Greekwatchdog]

Thanks Maverick for your thoughts and the time you spend on it.

[Baa_Baa]

Ditto thanks Maverick so generous sharing your analysis, much appreciated.

[blackie]

excellent insights Mav, thanks for all the hard mahi

[glenscape]

fabulous post Mav. you are the one I always trust and follow.

[Curly]

Thx Mav. You are not Graeme by chance?
Regretting not taking up recent share issue. So many hick ups with getting $$$ together time ran out due to busy week before issue closed. Never mind, will lock for opportunities elsewhere.
OCA in good shape. Expecting yield to be up and dividend up. Property prices merely a blimp in overall picture.

[Bjauck]

Too much focus on house prices i reckon. Sure there is a relationship, but we're talking about retirees in the the upper quartile who probably have a few shares and whatnot. There are more of them and they are living longer and chances are their kids are largely financially independent so they are more minded to spend... and this is a scarce, premium product. Whatever house prices do I see long term unit demand exceeding supply (besides the odd blip).

No idea what happens once the boomers are all dead but methinks the z-gen will be even less keen to retire in a drafty bungalow mowing lawns.

Perhaps most OCA shareholders wont care much by then. It is the silent generation in villages at the moment. With property prices and trend in ownership rates in NZ, many Zoomers will need to inherit property in order to become owner-occupiers.

However with tax reform and changing attitudes, real estate ownership may not remain the financial and investment lynch pin it currently is for NZers. So for retirement companies other ways for offering village membership to customers/clients may be developed. Anyway that is some decades away.

[artemis]

It is the silent generation in villages at the moment. With property prices and trend in ownership rates in NZ, many Zoomers will need to inherit property in order to become owner-occupiers...

Back in the day, after the 2017 election, Tracey Martin floated the idea of forcing retirement villages to provide a % of affordable housing (whatever that means), and that it was being discussed in Cabinet. AFAIK it died a death, but of course it could be revived. Just needs a captain's call since affordable housing is the political imperative du jour, at least in theory.

Good point about inheriting. Plus there is a huge number of properties in trusts, probably many already rented by the next generation/s as beneficiaries. Rented although they are now counted as owners in the census (using the Briggs adjustment).

[tim23]

Too much focus on house prices i reckon. Sure there is a relationship, but we're talking about retirees in the the upper quartile who probably have a few shares and whatnot. There are more of them and they are living longer and chances are their kids are largely financially independent so they are more minded to spend... and this is a scarce, premium product. Whatever house prices do I see long term unit demand exceeding supply (besides the odd blip).

No idea what happens once the boomers are all dead but methinks the z-gen will be even less keen to retire in a drafty bungalow mowing lawns.

Perhaps most OCA shareholders wont care much by then.

Wife and I visited a village the other day (just kicking the tyres as we are too young!) but the salesperson said there are still children who try to talk their parents out of making the move, clearly worried that the inheritance will be diluted.

[Bjauck]

Wife and I visited a village the other day (just kicking the tyres as we are too young!) but the salesperson said there are still children who try to talk their parents out of making the move, clearly worried that the inheritance will be diluted. Having expensive real estate, with gains beyond the increase in incomes, is a two-edged sword. Younger earners pay a large percent of their earnings in GST and income tax whilst older (on average) have been getting hefty untaxed gains from their owner-occupied homes. With so much of NZ’s wealth in housing worth many multiples of median earnings, it is little surprise that younger generations have their eye on their senior family members houses!

[Gunner]

Having expensive real estate, with gains beyond the increase in incomes, is a two-edged sword. Younger earners pay a large percent of their earnings in GST and income tax whilst older (on average) have been getting hefty untaxed gains from their owner-occupied homes. With so much of NZ’s wealth in housing worth many multiples of median earnings, it is little surprise that younger generations have their eye on their senior family members houses!

The people entering rest homes would be about 70 years old plus. There kids would be 40 to 50 year old range. I think they would already be established on the housing ladder by then. If an adult son or daughter is trying to manipulate their parents for their own greed, they are bad people to put it politely.

[Bjauck]

The people entering rest homes would be about 70 years old plus. There kids would be 40 to 50 year old range. I think they would already be established on the housing ladder by then. If an adult son or daughter is trying to manipulate their parents for their own greed, they are bad people to put it politely. Kids trying to manipulate parents is nothing new! It has been part of family dynamics since Adam and Eve had offspring. Obviously if dementia is involved, then you need to be wary of elder abuse.

Sure, restricted commodities with high prices may bring out the worst in people. Greed/selfishness depends on perspective. I was thinking about the grand children too struggling to “get on the ladder” these days too. Their parents feel their pressure, especially if they can’t help with the hefty deposits.

How do home ownership rates for those in their forties compare with a generation ago?

[blackie]

"How do home ownership rates for those in their forties compare with a generation ago?"

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/108312/home-ownership-levels-are-continuing-decline-especially-younger-people

"Home ownership rates have fallen to their lowest level in almost 70 years and it is becoming much less common for younger people to own their homes.
A new report by Statistics NZ, Housing in Aotearoa: 2020 (https://www.interest.co.nz/sites/default/files/embedded_images/housing-in-aotearoa-2020.pdf), shows home ownership peaked at 74% in the 1990s, but by 2018 had dropped to 65%.
The decline was particularly apparent for younger people, with home ownership rates for people aged 25-29 dropping from almost two-thirds to less than half since the early nineties.
In 1991, 61% of people aged 25-29 owned their own home, but by 2018 this had dropped to 44%."

[winner69]

Most trusted brands

[dompf]

"How do home ownership rates for those in their forties compare with a generation ago?"

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/108312/home-ownership-levels-are-continuing-decline-especially-younger-people

"Home ownership rates have fallen to their lowest level in almost 70 years and it is becoming much less common for younger people to own their homes.
A new report by Statistics NZ, Housing in Aotearoa: 2020 (https://www.interest.co.nz/sites/default/files/embedded_images/housing-in-aotearoa-2020.pdf), shows home ownership peaked at 74% in the 1990s, but by 2018 had dropped to 65%.
The decline was particularly apparent for younger people, with home ownership rates for people aged 25-29 dropping from almost two-thirds to less than half since the early nineties.
In 1991, 61% of people aged 25-29 owned their own home, but by 2018 this had dropped to 44%."

i wonder if the people that are married or in a committed relationship has also dropped severely over the last 20-30 years for that age bracket 25-29. I’m sure there’s heaps of factors involved in that drop.

[thegreatestben]

I bought my house when I was 24, pretty much everyone else my age (now 33) headed to the UK. Some still there, some back recently. My younger brother has been there for about 3 years now and my younger sister left on the 1st of April.

[artemis]

i wonder if the people that are married or in a committed relationship has also dropped severely over the last 20-30 years for that age bracket 25-29. I’m sure there’s heaps of factors involved in that drop.

That's a good point, and in any case seems that people are settling down and starting families later. Then there are those that start families earlier and if they have not sorted housing it will take them much longer, if ever.

Certainly DINKs have a decent shot at becoming home owners if that's what they want.

[Bjauck]

I bought my house when I was 24, pretty much everyone else my age (now 33) headed to the UK. Some still there, some back recently. My younger brother has been there for about 3 years now and my younger sister left on the 1st of April. The opportunity cost of your friends’ OE has been quite high. Using median figures or NZ, You have have had a fantastic percentage capital gain - and even greater depending on the size of any mortgage.

Even if your friends bought a house over there, Since 2011 the NZ median house price is up by about about 115%. UK median house prices are up by about 65% in the same time frame. The rate of exchange today is about the same as what it was in 2011.

[Ggcc]

I bought my house when I was 24, pretty much everyone else my age (now 33) headed to the UK. Some still there, some back recently. My younger brother has been there for about 3 years now and my younger sister left on the 1st of April.
I bought my first house at 21 with my parents help. Had lots of friends who did things differently. They all had fun while I struggled. Now they struggle and I’m having fun. Young people now need to bite the bullet and save hard. If you struggle when you are young, you will benefit later in life.
Sure I had my parents help, but had I pissed it against a wall they would not have supported me.
I just feel that young people are not as interested in owning houses or parents can’t help them like they used to. Lots of young people I know, class a house as a liability (which technically is) so they would rather invest in shares.

[Getty]

I bought my first home when I was 20.

A professional friend told me I was making a mistake, that I was missing out on life.

Since then, been semi retired since 45, been to 36 countries.

I suppose I am a failure.

[Joh13]

I don’t own a property, became a USD millionaire at 30... through saving as much as possible and investing 90% of that money mainly in the stock market.

I Have avoided all meme stocks and crypto and still managed to do well. I’ve travelled to 39 countries and now am the ripe old age of 31...

I think buying a property would have held me back a lot and am glad I haven’t and don’t intend to own one anytime soon.

I’ve been told numerous times that I’m stupid for not buying property in NZ....

I am excited about OCA can’t wait for results to add to further data on the company.

Looks like $1.30 was pretty damn good buying, vote of confidence with insiders buying :-)

I agree with Maverick, around $2.00 next May looks likely on the cards, baring any economic/housing collapse.

Can’t have to many OCA.

[Baa_Baa]

@Joh13 cool story.

The chart price action did a thing today which isn't very common, where it's been trading perfectly in-between the 100 and 50MA, testing both on the upside and down side and then closing in between.

I'd call this as a price pivot, kind of like the point of inflection for the fundamentals folks. On a chart, sometimes prices which reflect sentiment have a sort of mid point, the pivot point, where they've been before a few times and they're usually good action when it pushes up through it, and not so good the other way.

This time, hat tip to Beagle who will have been later to the party but still, plenty of upside, IF the 100MA breaks Upwards, on volume(!) is a good conservative TA entry or top up, however you feel inclined.

Not advice, too biased for that! :)

[Snow Leopard]

....

The chart price action did a thing today which isn't very common, where it's been trading perfectly in-between the 100 and 50MA, testing both on the upside and down side and then closing in between.

I'd call this as a price pivot, kind of like the point of inflection for the fundamentals folks. On a chart, sometimes prices which reflect sentiment have a sort of mid point, the pivot point, where they've been before a few times and they're usually good action when it pushes up through it, and not so good the other way....

....but still, plenty of upside, IF the 100MA breaks Upwards, on volume(!) is a good conservative TA entry or top up, however you feel inclined.

Not advice, too biased for that! :)

People do love to give meaning to the randomness and consequent coincidences that the universe throws at us.

But cats always land on their feet:
https://img.i-scmp.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=contain,width=640,format=auto/sites/default/files/styles/768x768/public/images/methode/2018/05/23/b70f3e2e-5d99-11e8-a4de-9f5e0e4dd719_1280x720_095446.JPG?itok=G2BNVEjA
Snow Leopard census (https://www.scmp.com/magazines/post-magazine/long-reads/article/2147271/snow-leopard-census-now-it-endangered-species)

Discs:
Unique;
Hold OCA;
Do not own a house;
Have been to lots of countries & territories, (70+);
Lived in many (8+).

[dobby41]

People do love to give meaning to the randomness and consequent coincidences that the universe throws at us.

But cats always land on their feet:


Discs:
Unique;
Hold OCA;
Do not own a house;
Have been to lots of countries & territories, (70+);
Lived in many (8+).
What all these stories tell us is that there is no one way to get to any destination you choose.
Each to their own, you can learn from others but you don't have to follow them.

[Bjauck]

I don’t own a property, became a USD millionaire at 30... through saving as much as possible and investing 90% of that money mainly in the stock market.
...
Can’t have to many OCA. On the US markets as NZ-based investor? You pursued/ are pursuing a high risk/reward strategy. Were your investments based on access to special research/analytic skills?

I added to my holding less than a year ago when the price was under $1 and wondered whether I was being reckless. TBH although less likely now, the course of events could still turn against OCA if a new covid variant takes hold before NZ starts mass immunisation. There has been a fair mount of luck with NZ's defences against covid, especially with keeping Covid contained to the MIQ Hotels.

Owning shares in the retirement companies gives you a vicarious exposure to NZ residential property.

[winner69]

In both the UK and the US the %age of young people in their 20s and early 30s living with their parents is now at a historical high going back over a century.

Suppose much the same in NZ

[Joh13]

On the US markets as NZ-based investor? You pursued/ are pursuing a high risk/reward strategy. Were your investments based on access to special research/analytic skills?

I added to my holding less than a year ago when the price was under $1 and wondered whether I was being reckless. TBH although less likely now, the course of events could still turn against OCA if a new covid variant takes hold before NZ starts mass immunisation. There has been a fair mount of luck with NZ's defences against covid, especially with keeping Covid contained to the MIQ Hotels.

Owning shares in the retirement companies gives you a vicarious exposure to NZ residential property.

The majority of my investments have been NZ based, I do have some money in a S&P index but not a lot.

I wouldn’t say High risk/reward investments... Because I’ve saved so hard (70-80% of salary) and have been fortunate enough to have a reasonable salary I’ve had a large cash pile at what I perceive to be opportune times and have near on fully deployed that cash.

I’m married but don’t have children, so I’m not sure if I would deploy the same strategy if I had children as I would then see it as potential high risk for my family.

I have an emergency fund just in case it all goes peer shaped that I could live on for a couple of years.

Learnt a lot of TA from YT and various TA books to try enter at as close to best entries I can. Learnt FA/Basic accounting from YT, Warren Buffet Accounting and Valuation and a bit of Corporate Finance from Aswath Damodaran, which he provides free online, he lectures at NYU Stern.

I say USD because I’ve been told having $1M NZD doesn’t count as being a millionaire, so had to get to $1M USD before I could officially say it.

I’ve just been patient and learnt a lot since I started my investing journey at the age of 22... Took some early losses that near on wiped my savings out... thanks Hot Copper. But managed to progress in my career which super charged my savings.

[RTM]

The majority of my investments have been NZ based, I do have some money in a S&P index but not a lot.

I wouldn’t say High risk/reward investments... Because I’ve saved so hard (70-80% of salary) and have been fortunate enough to have a reasonable salary I’ve had a large cash pile at what I perceive to be opportune times and have near on fully deployed that cash.

I’m married but don’t have children, so I’m not sure if I would deploy the same strategy if I had children as I would then see it as potential high risk for my family.

I have an emergency fund just in case it all goes peer shaped that I could live on for a couple of years.

Learnt a lot of TA from YT and various TA books to try enter at as close to best entries I can. Learnt FA/Basic accounting from YT, Warren Buffet Accounting and Valuation and a bit of Corporate Finance from Aswath Damodaran, which he provides free online, he lectures at NYU Stern.

I say USD because I’ve been told having $1M NZD doesn’t count as being a millionaire, so had to get to $1M USD before I could officially say it.

I’ve just been patient and learnt a lot since I started my investing journey at the age of 22... Took some early losses that near on wiped my savings out... thanks Hot Copper. But managed to progress in my career which super charged my savings.

Great story, well done !

[justakiwi]

Impressive. I wish I’d had your nous when I was 22! Well done :)


The majority of my investments have been NZ based, I do have some money in a S&P index but not a lot.

I wouldn’t say High risk/reward investments... Because I’ve saved so hard (70-80% of salary) and have been fortunate enough to have a reasonable salary I’ve had a large cash pile at what I perceive to be opportune times and have near on fully deployed that cash.

I’m married but don’t have children, so I’m not sure if I would deploy the same strategy if I had children as I would then see it as potential high risk for my family.

I have an emergency fund just in case it all goes peer shaped that I could live on for a couple of years.

Learnt a lot of TA from YT and various TA books to try enter at as close to best entries I can. Learnt FA/Basic accounting from YT, Warren Buffet Accounting and Valuation and a bit of Corporate Finance from Aswath Damodaran, which he provides free online, he lectures at NYU Stern.

I say USD because I’ve been told having $1M NZD doesn’t count as being a millionaire, so had to get to $1M USD before I could officially say it.

I’ve just been patient and learnt a lot since I started my investing journey at the age of 22... Took some early losses that near on wiped my savings out... thanks Hot Copper. But managed to progress in my career which super charged my savings.

[thegreatestben]

Good effort!

I think Dobby is onto it, we all get there in different ways.
I'm asset rich, cash poor. I turned down 1.2m for my house (developer offer) which is a little over 330% gain from buying it in 2012.

We're starting our subdivision/development of the property this week, the valuations as complete came in yesterday at 2.75m for the three (stand alone) properties it's to become.
The new homes are being retained as rentals, we'll continue to occupy this one until we figure out what we want to do next.

Never been a landlord before so should be interesting...

Am I a millionaire if it's assets? :laugh:

[RupertBear]

The majority of my investments have been NZ based, I do have some money in a S&P index but not a lot.

I wouldn’t say High risk/reward investments... Because I’ve saved so hard (70-80% of salary) and have been fortunate enough to have a reasonable salary I’ve had a large cash pile at what I perceive to be opportune times and have near on fully deployed that cash.

I’m married but don’t have children, so I’m not sure if I would deploy the same strategy if I had children as I would then see it as potential high risk for my family.

I have an emergency fund just in case it all goes peer shaped that I could live on for a couple of years.

Learnt a lot of TA from YT and various TA books to try enter at as close to best entries I can. Learnt FA/Basic accounting from YT, Warren Buffet Accounting and Valuation and a bit of Corporate Finance from Aswath Damodaran, which he provides free online, he lectures at NYU Stern.

I say USD because I’ve been told having $1M NZD doesn’t count as being a millionaire, so had to get to $1M USD before I could officially say it.

I’ve just been patient and learnt a lot since I started my investing journey at the age of 22... Took some early losses that near on wiped my savings out... thanks Hot Copper. But managed to progress in my career which super charged my savings.

Great stuff, I like your style, well done! :)

PS I had to look up YT .... for those of you like me who didnt know :confused:...its You Tube :D

[Bjauck]

…
I’ve just been patient and learnt a lot since I started my investing journey at the age of 22... Took some early losses that near on wiped my savings out... thanks Hot Copper. But managed to progress in my career which super charged my savings.
It certainly helps having a successful career from which you can save the majority of your income. It sounds like you have carried that successful attitude to your investing too. You sound to be a dedicated young investor. It takes a steely resolve to come back after an early cold bath! Investors of your calibre will help NZ invest efficiently. I think NZD millionaires can call themselves millionaires too. A target which is not as hard as it used to be to achieve these days if you have been a NZ home owner for a couple of decades or so. However it does depend on how American-centric your points of reference are.

Ben if your asset valuation (including your owner occupied home) less liabilities are worth over a million NZ dollars, then you’d be millionaire too, IMO.

Addendum: I think $20,000 invested in A2 Milk Shares ten years ago would be worth $1,000,000 at today’s price.

[Habits]

Good effort!

I think Dobby is onto it, we all get there in different ways.
I'm asset rich, cash poor. I turned down 1.2m for my house (developer offer) which is a little over 330% gain from buying it in 2012.

We're starting our subdivision/development of the property this week, the valuations as complete came in yesterday at 2.75m for the three (stand alone) properties it's to become.
The new homes are being retained as rentals, we'll continue to occupy this one until we figure out what we want to do next.

Never been a landlord before so should be interesting...

Am I a millionaire if it's assets? :laugh:

If you dont mind me asking whats your build budget all up for the 3 new homes, does the plan involve keeping the existing home or does that have to go. How does the official valuation compare with what you were thinking

You said first time LL ... also first time developer? Jumping in the deep end big time, I like that approach, learn fast

[thegreatestben]

I have a mortgage but have assets aside from my home that are worth more than it’s current balance.

We (GF & I) aren’t married, no kids. Both work full time, about double the average household income for nz, so we are in a good spot to become developers/landlords. Total cost is looking like 1.4m borrowing 1.3m. We paid cash for the planning and consent as we could keep up with costs from our income.

We are building two new homes and keeping the existing house but relocating it on site. We are also adding an internal access garage and reconfiguring the layout slightly, finishing off renovation I’ve already mostly completed.

New builds are 460ish a piece
Development works 130ish
Existing house 180ish
Design/planning/consents was 85k, I’m going to say this was low because our site is zoned medium density so our consent was non-notified.

Will leave us with no debt on personal home, rent per house should return about $750 a week. Waiting patiently to see what tax exemptions are for “new builds”.

Should be about 51|49 split in our favour from completion if values remain at 2.75m total. I think the valuations are light, especially the existing home but they 200k over my original aim when I got serious about doing this. More than adequate to get financing (anz commercial loan)

[Joh13]

Thanks very much for the kind words :-)
GLTA and happy investing!

[Habits]

Very well done TGB... and get the renos out of the way before having kids in amongst it, much less stress for you and wifey. Btw does 85k for consents etc include any DCs or are they described as devlpmt works?

[Rowdy Flat]

Ummm... is this the OCA thread or has it given over to mutual masturbation?

[thegreatestben]

Thanks, it’s nice to share good stories with positive reception. Hard not to come across as boasting sometimes!

85k includes, architect/designer who did all our plans, resource and building consent applications. Engineers, surveyor, valuations.

If you mean development contributions those are in the development works budget, $30k, 10k dev contribution, 20k reserves contribution.

Currently paying for all the service disconnection and reconnections plus contract works insurance for the existing house (ouch).

Have been slaving away doing as much as we can ourselves getting the site ready (demo) Haven’t had a day off in about 6 weeks, looking and feeling pretty tired.

[Habits]

Have been slaving away doing as much as we can ourselves getting the site ready (demo) Haven’t had a day off in about 6 weeks, looking and feeling pretty tired.

Been there too... after a few years or twenty you will be able to look back and feel pretty satisfied

[Maverick]

4 traders have 4 anylists following this now. All 4 are rating it as a buy. Average target is now $1.70
It is rare to see such uniformed enthusiasm for any stock.
Apart from traders cashing in from the recent burst, I recon youd have to have rocks in your head to be selling right now.

[850man]

4 traders have 4 anylists following this now. All 4 are rating it as a buy. Average target is now $1.70
It is rare to see such uniformed enthusiasm for any stock.
Apart from traders cashing in from the recent burst, I recon youd have to have rocks in your head to be selling right now.

quite a volume in the sell column with rocks in their heads right now

[Mudfish]

Nice pick up Mav. I'm getting hard. Just in case others are unaware of the Market Screener site. Click the link below. You won't be disappointed, neither will your partner.

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/OCEANIA-HEALTHCARE-LIMITE-103506268/consensus/

[tommy_d]

Apart from traders cashing in from the recent burst, I recon youd have to have rocks in your head to be selling right now.
thought about putting up a sell order for a few thousand at $1.97 for lols, Didn't.

[Gunner]

Results for 10 months period to 31st March due 21st May

[dompf]

Results for 10 months period to 31st March due 21st May

Exciting - will be interesting to note if there is a run up to results given most big players have this as a buy; but market does what the market does.

Still be very interested with what the results entail.

[winner69]

Results for 10 months period to 31st March due 21st May

so 10 months eh

Do we annualise to get a 'full year' figure - like if underlying earnings were 50m is an 'annual result' $60m (jeez that's a lot)

Or do we go back to last years results to May and assume that April/May was breakeven (covid) and then assume that a 12 months to March 21 is 50m

Sometimes companys change balance date they produce a 'proforma 12 months' set of accounts for comparative purposes going forward. Can't see Oceania doing that as they tend to make things as obtuse as they can....and that obtuseness will carry on for a while (like whats the comparative period for H122?)

I think that they do this on purpose

[Greekwatchdog]

For Bars latest below..
Aged Care Sector
Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index


After a strong start to the year, our analysis suggests the Montgomerie-Ibbotson (MI) aged-care pricing index has been flat
over the last two months, increasing our confidence in its accuracy. We believe stable prices reflect two key factors; (1)
pricing caution from the listed operators in light of the government's housing policy announcement, and (2) potential
pricing timing discrepancies given the aged care operators don't typically review prices on a monthly basis. Looking
forward, we remain positive on the sector and believe the pricing "buffer" built up by the operators following New
Zealand's strong recent house price inflation (HPI) provides resilience in the event of a slowing housing market and further
optionality if prices remain stable or continue to trend upwards.
MI aged care pricing index flat over the past two months
Following a strong lift in prices to start 2021 with January up +0.5% and February up +2.9%, the MI aged care pricing index has
been flat through March and April. Independent Living Units (ILUs) were the key driver of change to start the year (up +4.4%) and
while there has been no change in ILU pricing through March and April we have again seen minimal change in Serviced Apartment/
Care Suite (SA/CS) pricing. This SA/CS pricing trend relative to ILUs is somewhat surprising but likely reflects the defensive and less
cyclically exposed nature of the product. Summerset (SUM), Arvida (ARV) and Ryman (RYM) all show broadly flat prices over the past
two months but we have seen a slight tick up in Oceania's (OCA's) ILU and SA/CS pricing, albeit caution the material sample size
difference for OCA versus RYM and SUM.
Pent up house price inflation provides a "buffer"
One of the key takeaways from our recent aged care tour was the "buffer" retirement village operators have to further increase prices
following the shift in New Zealand house prices over the past twelve months (c. +20%). Numerous operators on our tour suggested
that, while prices have increased modestly in recent months, there are more price rises on the horizon given some opted to delay
pricing decisions in light of COVID-19 uncertainty through the second half of CY20. Our analysis suggests these price increases are
yet to occur, likely in-part due to the government's housing policy announcement on March 23. We view this buffer as important to
help provide price resilience in a slowing market but also add further optionality going forward.

[winner69]

Not much action OCA share price at the moment

Maybe punters will get more excited as we get closer to Friday next week

I wouldn’t be surprised if they came up with 55m underlying earnings

[Beagle]

Four brokers all rate it a BUY, lowest valuation $1.55 and highest $1.80, average $1.70. https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/OCEANIA-HEALTHCARE-LIMITE-103506268/consensus/
Mav tells us that underlying earnings are too crude a measure to value OCA and tells us we should be at $2 this time next year. The analysts and Mav can't possibly all be wrong at the same time, surely not...
More group hugs and contented lie downs, what could possibly go wrong...https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=hIYy0FFq&id=61506B60806C9AEB811B8DFDE2926072EB639A9C&thid=OIP.hIYy0FFqaqH7rVAPtvIupQHaHa&mediaurl=https%3A%2F%2Fwooftiny.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2020%2F04%2F10-Pictures-Beagle-Make-Me-So-Happy-03.jpg&exph=858&expw=858&q=happy+beagle&simid=608036651877558244&ck=D9E1EA402EF10339944DBFFB6E2572D1&selectedindex=3&form=IRPRST&ajaxhist=0&ajaxserp=0&vt=0&sim=11&cdnurl=https%3A%2F%2Fth.bing.com%2Fth%2Fid%2FR8486 32d0516a6aa1fbad500fb6f22ea5%3Frik%3DnJpj63JgkuL9j Q%26pid%3DImgRaw.

[Baa_Baa]

Four brokers all rate it a BUY, lowest valuation $1.55 and highest $1.80, average $1.70. https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/OCEANIA-HEALTHCARE-LIMITE-103506268/consensus/
Mav tells us that underlying earnings are too crude a measure to value OCA and tells us we should be at $2 this time next year. The analysts and Mav can't possibly all be wrong at the same time, surely not...
More group hugs and contented lie downs, what could possibly go wrong...https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=hIYy0FFq&id=61506B60806C9AEB811B8DFDE2926072EB639A9C&thid=OIP.hIYy0FFqaqH7rVAPtvIupQHaHa&mediaurl=https%3A%2F%2Fwooftiny.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2020%2F04%2F10-Pictures-Beagle-Make-Me-So-Happy-03.jpg&exph=858&expw=858&q=happy+beagle&simid=608036651877558244&ck=D9E1EA402EF10339944DBFFB6E2572D1&selectedindex=3&form=IRPRST&ajaxhist=0&ajaxserp=0&vt=0&sim=11&cdnurl=https%3A%2F%2Fth.bing.com%2Fth%2Fid%2FR8486 32d0516a6aa1fbad500fb6f22ea5%3Frik%3DnJpj63JgkuL9j Q%26pid%3DImgRaw.

Forbar 26/3 said $1.70 then shortly after 14/4 raised to $1.80 OUTPERFORM.

Either the analysts are wrong, or the market is. $1.36 now. 13 out of the last 14 days have all touched on the 50MA ... yes you guessed it, $1.366.

[BlackPeter]

Forbar 26/3 said $1.70 then shortly after 14/4 raised to $1.80 OUTPERFORM.

Either the analysts are wrong, or the market is. $1.36 now. 13 out of the last 14 days have all touched on the 50MA ... yes you guessed it, $1.366.

I think consensus forecast is defined as a 12 month target. Admittedly, analysts are still more often wrong than right, but you will need to show some patience to find out which of these two options apply this time :p:

[winner69]

I think consensus forecast is defined as a 12 month target. Admittedly, analysts are still more often wrong than right, but you will need to show some patience to find out which of these two options apply this time :p:

,.....so 170 average implies over 150 when report written

No worries ..next week share price will be over 150 ....and huge result will mean targets increased over 2 bucks.

OCA needs a big boost to keep up with analysts

[Beagle]

,.....so 170 average implies over 150 when report written

No worries ..next week share price will be over 150 ....and huge result will mean targets increased over 2 bucks.

OCA needs a big boost to keep up with analysts

What we need now is for Mav to conjure up a new forecast for FY22 of at least $90m underlying profit, nah, make it $100m+. Come on Mav, you need to get more optimistic...

[winner69]

What we need now is for Mav to conjure up a new forecast for FY22 of at least $90m underlying profit. Come on Mav, you need to get more optimistic...

Earl conjured up a forecast of $87m for 2020 and failed miserably

[Beagle]

Earl conjured up a forecast of $87m for 2020 and failed miserably

Earl's yesterday's news. The punters believe in Mav...he's our new hero... $2 no trouble whatsoever.

[Beagle]

4 traders have 4 anylists following this now. All 4 are rating it as a buy. Average target is now $1.70
It is rare to see such uniformed enthusiasm for any stock.
Apart from traders cashing in from the recent burst, I recon youd have to have rocks in your head to be selling right now.

And yet it would seem there are plenty with "rocks in their heads".

[Greekwatchdog]

I am looking forward to the new CEO to leave his mark. Be nice to get Quarterly updates on sales etc..Anyone think there will be a divvie?? I get a feeling we won't being we just received one in Feb.

[JeffW]

I am looking forward to the new CEO to leave his mark. Be nice to get Quarterly updates on sales etc..Anyone think there will be a divvie?? I get a feeling we won't being we just received one in Feb.

Given there's no Imputation Credits, I'd rather not have a divvie.

[winner69]

Pretty solid team behind Brent now

Good appointments

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/372107/345903.pdf

[850man]

Pretty solid team behind Brent now

Good appointments

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/372107/345903.pdf

Yep... time now to "show us the money"

[BlackPeter]

Pretty solid team behind Brent now

Good appointments

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/372107/345903.pdf

Agree - and good to see that a company is able to grow their own leadership team by internal promotions instead of hiring high flyers from somewhere else.

[winner69]

Agree - and good to see that a company is able to grow their own leadership team by internal promotions instead of hiring high flyers from somewhere else.

The crisis of mediocre men ;)

[BlackPeter]

The crisis of mediocre men ;)

Well yes, if more companies make a habit out of this than it might turn into a crisis for show offs and job-hoppers. Not sure, though whether this is something gender specific ... seen during my time these attributes exposed in both major genders (and, to stay PC, I suspect that all the other genders do have their fair share of mediocrity, showing off and job hopping as well) ...

[percy]

Pretty solid team behind Brent now

Good appointments

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/372107/345903.pdf

With Liz Coutts as Chair,and Gregg Tomlinson as a director and major shareholder, I expect the best people were appointed.

[Beagle]

Latest REINZ stat's are out for April 2021, the first full month since the significant tax change by the Govt. https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5ce1fd700bf20400017d3a30/t/609c4eb73fc8f9142091b468/1620856545962/REINZ+Monthly+Property+Report+-+April+2021.pdf
Others will interpret them in a different way and that's fine but my read on this is the National Median price in April 2021 was down to $810K from $825K in March 2021 a drop of 1.8% (implied annual rate of decline is 21.6% per annum)
Volume of sales in April was 7,218 down from 10,022 in March 2021, some of this is no doubt a seasonal change.

I am sure Cindy and Grant with their radical socialism will be pleased with the early signs of the impact they have made and I expect the trend towards cooling off in this sector to continue.

These results are pretty much consistent with what I expected which is why I have substantially reduced my exposure to this sector.

I think in this new "cooling" real estate market there will be very limited opportunity for retirement villages to raise prices and capture any meaningful part of the significant rise in prices to the year ended 31 March 2021. Essentially this represents a missed opportunity due to lack of being proactive on Earl's part. Maybe they can capture past gains on the next leg up in the real estate sector ?, (whenever that might be).

For what its worth I estimate underlying profit in the range of $40-45m for the ten months ended 31 March 2021. Lets see how we go....I've been very close with FY20's result and 1H FY21. Talk of close to $2 this time next year is extremely optimistic in my opinion. Most likely is this will track ostensibly sideways for the foreseeable future and I expect an unimputed yield of 3-4% which is better than money in the bank so I will stick with a small position. In the long run these will do okay but investors will need to be VERY patient.

[Habits]

Its dangerous and meaningless to extrapolate like that Beagle, that is barking mad lolz

[Beagle]

Yeah its drawing a long bow to extrapolate out one month's data into both an annualized basis and presumptive to suggest this is the start of a trend, (especially when there is only one month's data) but i am talking to a lot of property investors as part of my professional role and what I am hearing gives me enough info to be quite confident that this is the start of a rationalization of many investors property portfolio's. Remember the interest rate deductibility change is phased in over 4 years so many investors are biding their time until this coming spring when the changes start to take effect.

I'm quite comfortable with my read of the situation that the Govt's moves will have a material impact in the market and the first month's data is initial confirmation of my assessment that the tide has turned. Like all things, time will tell for sure.

[artemis]

Yeah its drawing a long bow to extrapolate out one month's data into both an annualized basis and presumptive to suggest this is the start of a trend, (especially when there is only one month's data) but i am talking to a lot of property investors as part of my professional role and what I am hearing gives me enough info to be quite confident that this is the start of a rationalization of many investors property portfolio's. Remember the interest rate deductibility change is phased in over 4 years so many investors are biding their time until this coming spring when the changes start to take effect.

I'm quite comfortable with my read of the situation that the Govt's radical socialism will have a material impact in the market and the first month's data is initial confirmation of my assessment that the tide has turned. Like all things, time will tell for sure.

Still plenty of unknowns in the housing sector - inflation, interest rates, new builds and who buys them (somebody or nobody - Ormiston Rise?). But the biggest unknown is what the government will or won't do. Uncertainty and lack of trust are not encouraging for investors.

Meanwhile, according to announcements, existing homes purchased by investors from 27 March lose 100% of interest deductibility on 1 October. Huge disincentive, which is the government's goal of course. Because of the way it was announced - instant guillotine - investors will wait. So we might see further price stabilisation in the sector.

[winner69]

.....


Volume of sales in April was 7,218 down from 10,022 in March 2021, some of this is no doubt a seasonal change.

Number of sales booming ...

REINZ - The number of residential properties sold in April across New Zealand was the highest number of properties sold in an April month for 5 years with 7,218

Jeez ...busiest April month for 5 years

[winner69]

And this is pretty good ..maybe extrapolating current median price not a good idea

REINZ HPI shows house values reach new high in April

The REINZ House Price Index (HPI) for New Zealand, which measures the changing value of property in the market, increased 26.8% year-on-year to 3,775 a new high on the index. This is the highest a REINZ HPI shows house values reach new high in April
The REINZ House Price Index (HPI) for New Zealand, which measures the changing value of property in the market, increased 26.8% year-on-year to 3,775 a new high on the index. This is the highest annual percentage increase in the HPI that we’ve seen since records began, and is the eleventh consecutive month that we’ve seen a new high, showing the continued strength of the market in April. nnual percentage increase in the HPI that we’ve seen since records began, and is the eleventh consecutive month that we’ve seen a new high, showing the continued strength of the market in April.

[Rawz]

.... i am talking to a lot of property investors as part of my professional role and what I am hearing gives me enough info to be quite confident that this is the start of a rationalization of many investors property portfolio's. Remember the interest rate deductibility change is phased in over 4 years so many investors are biding their time until this coming spring when the changes start to take effect.



Hey Beagle, are you clients giving you an indication of where the residential property money will go after they sell? Stocks or commercial property?

BTW- good to have you back. Your posts are of much value.