OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[percy]

An interesting post on Ryman thread.
Posted by Harrys on 15-06-2004, post #13 on page one.

[Beagle]

If the increased funding from the government fails to fully reflect the pay equity changes, then those small operators will be in trouble. With recent residential real estate price inflation, perhaps the government will be relying even more on private payers to pay for care costs (they also scrapped the planned big increase in the asset threshhold.) In addition they may be relying on the big operators such as OCA to cross-subsidise the care beds from their profits from the sale of ORAs.

"The Westpac report found private companies such as Ryman are expected to provide "around 40 per cent of the rest home beds needed over the next 10 years.
"These beds are "almost always" part of a larger village like Bob Scott. These facilities find it easier to make money. As the report puts it, they have the "scale and alternative revenue streams to remain profitable". (my highlight)
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/95699074/our-ageing-nation-can-our-rest-homes-cope-with-the-growing-retired-population

I think we're headed for a real calamity in this sector in terms of bed availability. Nurses will want pay relativity, then cleaners, then administration staff and so on. Where does this logically end ? In my view it ends with a substantial bed shortage because a heck of a lot of smaller operators will have to shut the doors !
It may come to a situation where if relatives of elderly folks want the best care for their needy one they have no alternative but to purchase an occupation right agreement. In this regard the listed operators all appear to be well positioned and I am hoping my Mum coming up 88 year next month keeps her marbles and I don't have to go through a six year dementia fiasco like I did with my Dad.

[winner69]

Looks like the share price drifting to below $1

The enthusiasm for this rising star seems to be waning

They need to make an decent acquisition and maybe even tie it in with a capital raising to get punters excited again.

[King1212]

Looks like the share price drifting to below $1

The enthusiasm for this rising star seems to be waning

They need to make an decent acquisition and maybe even tie it in with a capital raising to get punters excited again.

Come on winner....OCA just listed...give them a break....

[trader_jackson]

Looks like the share price drifting to below $1

The enthusiasm for this rising star seems to be waning

They need to make an decent acquisition and maybe even tie it in with a capital raising to get punters excited again.

If things get any sillier it might be buying time (again).

[winner69]

Come on winner....OCA just listed...give them a break....

The results briefing mentioned acquisitions ....and CEO sounded pretty keen on the idea in the media in the days following

Might follow Arvida - acquired something an did a cap raising not many months after the IPO

Seems acquisition is only way for share price to get another boost

Nrarly 10% of it's recent high and lower than before the full year announcememt

[Elles]

Still a good 25% above the IPO price though...

[trader_jackson]

Saw an Oceania tv ad today... very smart, subtle, heart warming, and overall well done I thought. My grandad even said he likes it - and that is when you know it must be good.
Good to see IPO funds being spent well ;)

Disclosure: my grandad [typically] hates 11 out of 10 TV ads

[King1212]

selling pressure!!!:eek2:

[percy]

selling pressure!!!:eek2:

Most probably a lot of investors are taking a little bit out of the sector,covering themselves, should there be a change of government.

[Jantar]

I would have thought that aged care is one area that should do well under a labour government.

[trader_jackson]

Just some retail (minor) panic... likely related to Labour's supposed crack down on immigration (and I believe some of these care workers come via immigration), also what Labour could do to house prices... at the end of the day Labour are extremely unpredictable (in its current form) this is the main 'problem'.

All I see is OCA becoming more and more of a bargain.

[percy]

I would have thought that aged care is one area that should do well under a labour government.

The sector's tax position.

[flyer]

Yes, just got some more, any buying under $1 is great.

[artemis]

The sector's tax position.

Capital Gains Tax could be good for the sector, if they already pay income tax on gains as traders. In the event they ever sell up, if it is set at the 15% previously mooted by Labour, they will be laughing. Land tax a bit different but will just be passed on in the sale price. But really, who knows what will happen ....

In any case, a comprehensive review by experts will not happen overnight. Then there is the legislative process and IRD systems to set up. I'm picking 2 years minimum, probably longer. Just in time for a fully formed policy into the 2020 election.

[RTM]

Capital Gains Tax could be good for the sector, if they already pay income tax on gains as traders. In the event they ever sell up, if it is set at the 15% previously mooted by Labour, they will be laughing. Land tax a bit different but will just be passed on in the sale price. But really, who knows what will happen ....

In any case, a comprehensive review by experts will not happen overnight. Then there is the legislative process and IRD systems to set up. I'm picking 2 years minimum, probably longer. Just in time for a fully formed policy into the 2020 election.

I hope you are being completely clear and transparent !

[percy]

From Craig's research this morning headed ...Election getten' real.
"The retirement sector could face some uncertainty.
They are leveraged to further gains in house prices,while their own non-taxpaying status could raise some eyebrows under a new government with a greater focus on tax fairness."

[huxley]

From Craig's research this morning headed ...Election getten' real.
"The retirement sector could face some uncertainty.
They are leveraged to further gains in house prices,while their own non-taxpaying status could raise some eyebrows under a new government with a greater focus on tax fairness."

This is a concern, however it's all really speculation regarding a labour govt causing a decline in house prices, if this turns out to be unfounded, shares in this sector could be a good buy as the market potentially discounts the SP ...in the short term...

Dis hold, no plans to sell

[huxley]

This is a concern, however it's all really speculation regarding a labour govt causing a decline in house prices, if this turns out to be unfounded, shares in this sector could be a good buy as the market potentially discounts the SP ...in the short term...

Dis hold, no plans to sell

*** oh, and of course, should it be a very close election and the Nats get in, then expecting a strong recovery to any decline before the 22nd :)

[trader_jackson]

Man under the dollar mark... I was sure we would never see such a bargain again...
Trading at 11 PE right now, the next cheapest (eg SUM and MET) are trading at PE's over a third higher, and we won't bother comparing it to RYM, they are (nearly) worlds apart.

What is clear is this year is a big one for OCA, what is less clear is when the market is going to start realizing this (again).

[Bjauck]

Capital Gains Tax could be good for the sector, if they already pay income tax on gains as traders. In the event they ever sell up, if it is set at the 15% previously mooted by Labour, they will be laughing. I am no expert and this is certainly not advice, but even with a capital gains tax, wouldn't traders still be liable for income tax as their gains would still be regarded as assessable income rather than capital gains?

[King1212]

News on the Herald...Labour wins...retirement n property stocks will be under pressure...I think property n retirement sectors will be under pressure till the change of government. The chart does not look good...Will go down possible 95c in next two weeks.

[Bjauck]

Man under the dollar mark... I was sure we would never see such a bargain again...
Trading at 11 PE right now, the next cheapest (eg SUM and MET) are trading at PE's over a third higher, and we won't bother comparing it to RYM, they are (nearly) worlds apart.

What is clear is this year is a big one for OCA, what is less clear is when the market is going to start realizing this (again). I am not sure if Labour would want to upset the tax ruling that the retirement sector rely upon. After all the profits from the sale of ORA help cross subsidise their care beds. With pay equity, and future relativity pay claims,the future provision of care beds may be more reliant on the operators who sell ORAs.

[trader_jackson]

I am not sure if Labour would want to upset the tax ruling that the retirement sector rely upon. After all the profits from the sale of ORA help cross subsidise their care beds. With pay equity, and future relativity pay claims,the future provision of care beds may be more reliant on the operators who sell ORAs.

I would say they will want to crack down more on those that make money off property - ie all those unrealized gains, rather than those operators with thousands of staff helping (literally) take care of the elderly (not just sell them an expensive Auckland shoe box apartment retirement village, with no care component).

Those that are more care based could even find themselves with subsidies - we don't really know with this labour party, but we do know they like splashing cash everywhere and anywhere.

[RTM]

In any case, a comprehensive review by experts will not happen overnight. Then there is the legislative process and IRD systems to set up. I'm picking 2 years minimum, probably longer. Just in time for a fully formed policy into the 2020 election.

You're assuming here that they don't know already exactly what they intend to do. I believe they do and will be able to put it into place much more quickly than you would think. I don't believe for a moment that after 9 years in opposition that they do not know exactly what they want to do.

[fish]

You're assuming here that they don't know already exactly what they intend to do. I believe they do and will be able to put it into place much more quickly than you would think. I don't believe for a moment that after 9 years in opposition that they do not know exactly what they want to do.

I think they will do what the charismatic jacinda tells them to do.Their old policies didnt work for the electorate

[trader_jackson]

You're assuming here that they don't know already exactly what they intend to do. I believe they do and will be able to put it into place much more quickly than you would think. I don't believe for a moment that after 9 years in opposition that they do not know exactly what they want to do.

Despite being in opposition for 9 years (and having several different leaders with different ideas over that period) I actually think they really have no idea what they will be doing, except throwing money everywhere!

[Joshuatree]

Show me where they are splashing money around more then national. i think its the other way around or at least the same. In fact national are more left then anyone atm, more right and all over the place in a desperate attempt to stay with carrots being chucked everywhere.. Fear mongering is the standard nat tactic re taxes etc. But remember who raised it 18 times after helen clarks govt with 9 strong fiscal years, national. labour don't want just a 3 year term they will not alienate the voters but they will improve more NZ'ers lives, thats a good thing, esp health for retirees.

[winner69]

Spending money - good


A 2,668m2 site on View Road to expand operations of Oceania’s Eden


That 2,668 sqm sounds huge .....but in old fashioned terms only 2/3rds of an acre

Suppose if you go high rise will get more than a few units on it

[King1212]

That is what Labour good at...keep borrowing n spending...

[trader_jackson]

2,668 probably means another 34 or 35 or Oceania's Care Suites, maybe more, renowned for their quality of care services.
No doubt a premium price was paid to secure this premium site, and no doubt they will be sold at a large premium.

Nice to hear they are well on track

Also nice to hear “We told our shareholders at the time of the IPO that we would make further brownfield and greenfield acquisitions as opportunities arose, and this purchase in Mt Eden is a great example of the execution of this strategy..." sounds to me like they have another one lined up...

[dobby41]

That is what Labour good at...keep borrowing n spending...

That's why, at the start of Nationals 9 years, we had the lowest debt ever and now we have the highest.
Hangon - that would mean National borrow and spend but Labour was careful. I suppose that doesn't speak to your bias.

[trader_jackson]

That's why, at the start of Nationals 9 years, we had the lowest debt ever and now we have the highest.
Hangon - that would mean National borrow and spend but Labour was careful. I suppose that doesn't speak to your bias.

Guys lets not get to political... sometimes things change

(although it would be great if you could explain what "highest" means, highest relative to when? to prior to GFC? highest relatively to GDP, maybe it was higher due to the GFC and earthquakes? maybe labour today have plans for slower debt reduction target than national? maybe its not a bad thing to borrow with low interest rates?)

[winner69]

That's why, at the start of Nationals 9 years, we had the lowest debt ever and huge forecasted budget deficits and now we have the highest.
Hangon - that would mean National borrow and spend but Labour was careful. I suppose that doesn't speak to your bias.

Just added a bit in red dobby

[t.rexjr]

Just added a bit in red dobby

Yes indeed. Inherited, not created...

[Hoop]

Maybe slightly more benefit to the SUM thread, however I would assume it would be relevent to all NZ businesses including retirement villages OCA included...

Rob Campbell interview on the possiblity of a Labour led Government (8 minute video) (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11920633)...A well balanced view by one of our top business leaders....

[Bjauck]

Maybe slightly more benefit to the SUM thread, however I would assume it would be relevent to all NZ businesses including retirement villages OCA included...

Rob Campbell interview on the possiblity of a Labour led Government (8 minute video) (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11920633)...A well balanced view by one of our top business leaders.... A pragmatic view. I regard both National and Labour as centrist, with policies that see a slight variation on the arrangement of the tax deckchairs whilst both remain firmly on the vessel in a sea of icebergs.

[percy]

A pragmatic view. I regard both National and Labour as centrist, with policies that see a slight variation on the arrangement of the tax deckchairs whilst both remain firmly on the vessel in a sea of icebergs.

Agree.
Stable governments under Helen Clarlk,John Key/Bill English have served NZ well.
They certainly have avoided a sea of icebergs.

[whatsup]

What the He!! is going on today with OCA, big fal now down to .93 from .99 this morning , whatsup ?

[winner69]

What the He!! is going on today with OCA, big fal now down to .93 from .99 this morning , whatsup ?

Probably Jacinda's doing

[percy]

Probably Jacinda's doing

No surprise there..!!!

Received the printed copy of their first annual report.Will read it tonight, if I can finish the latest Harry Hole thriller.

[whatsup]

No surprise there..!!!

Received the printed copy of their first annual report.Will read it tonight, if I can finish the latest Harry Hole thriller.

Are you telling me that toothie is at it already ?

[Beagle]

Are you telling me that toothie is at it already ?
Toothie.... Biting chunks out of your net worth right across your portfolio...(just the listed ones you see at present).
Be interesting to see how tough it is to sell a high end house or nice farm in a few months time if she gets into power. I think you'll find its not just the listed assets that get bitten hard.

[percy]

Are you telling me that toothie is at it already ?

Yes the vampire kept himself busy.
Hang on a minute.
Are we talking about the book, or OCA's sp.???...lol.

[Beagle]

No surprise there..!!!

Received the printed copy of their first annual report.Will read it tonight, if I can finish the latest Harry Hole thriller.

Ran my paws over it, made for a good read. Market has a case of Taxcinda nerves.

[percy]

Taxcinda..
Funny "The Thirst" by Jo Nesbo, features a vampire with iron teath.!! Haven't finished it yet,but another fantasic read.
OMG a lot of blood lost in Norway,and now more blood on the stock exchange floor in NZ, with Jacinda.
No wonder my PAZ on the unlisted market hit a 5 or was it a 10 year high today.

[huxley]

Bill at 47% in tonight's poll, could be a rebound in 11 days :t_up:

[Beagle]

http://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/national-could-govern-alone-in-latest-newshub-poll/ar-AArNNM1?ocid=spartandhp
Some encouragement for OCA shareholders after a difficult day. Annual report was an encouraging read today too. Making all the right noises.

[Fatboyj]

Taxcinda.

We're trending, A howl of approval from this bottomless pocketed lardass.

As the effect wears, steady Bill will steer us from the jagged teeth shaped rocks and back to reality.

A portfolio of solid red arrows is bad for the country. Lets do this people.

Oh yea seeing OCA go red today was a hard slap in the face and got this blobby butt moving.

[Beagle]

Hey Percy...what did you think of the annual report ?

[Ggcc]

I'm hoping the share price gets to below 90 cents, so I can hop on board. I do think regardless of Taxinda, these companies to me seem like no brainers........ I do intend to buy, but am waiting on the sideline hehe. I am only adding my two cents. This in no way is financial advice 😊.

[BlackPeter]

I'm hoping the share price gets to below 90 cents, so I can hop on board. I do think regardless of Taxinda, these companies to me seem like no brainers........ I do intend to buy, but am waiting on the sideline hehe. I am only adding my two cents. This in no way is financial advice ��.

You will need to wait a long time if you only add 2 cents or is this 2 cents plus the 90 cents you talked about ;)?;

[percy]

Hey Percy...what did you think of the annual report ?

Still have not read it.
Still have not finished "The First" by Jo Nesbo.
Eyes ended up going X eyed last night.!!!
Getting that way again, after reading the TRA announcement about three times, and deciding they have caused my brain to go X eyed too.Hopefully more clarity at the agm next week.At least OIC made my day.Right back to Jo and Harry Hole.

[Ggcc]

You will need to wait a long time if you only add 2 cents or is this 2 cents plus the 90 cents you talked about ;)?;
who knows with this crazy market. I am still trying to understand it. I have money to invest, but am also waiting for this market correction that many talk about and if it does happen I see even oceania well below 90 cents......

[BlackPeter]

who knows with this crazy market. I am still trying to understand it. I have money to invest, but am also waiting for this market correction that many talk about and if it does happen I see even oceania well below 90 cents......

Yep, I hear there are a lot of people waiting for this market correction since 2015 or so. Waiting can be expensive, though ;);

I think what you see here is just election jitters. And sure - it can go a bit lower or not (depending on Taxindas fortunes) ... but I am sure the fundamental value will kick in ways before the SP reaches 2 cents.

Discl: holder (and well in the black);

[trader_jackson]

Yep, I hear there are a lot of people waiting for this market correction since 2015 or so. Waiting can be expensive, though ;);

I think what you see here is just election jitters. And sure - it can go a bit lower or not (depending on Taxindas fortunes) ... but I am sure the fundamental value will kick in ways before the SP reaches 2 cents.

Discl: holder (and well in the black);

Man, we are going to be back at single digit PE soon if the share price doesn't watch out!

Crazy times indeed.

[percy]

Hey Percy...what did you think of the annual report ?

A very good well set out annual report.
Pleasing having Elizabeth Coutts as chair,as she has impressed me with her Ebos directorship.
OCA have a clear vision,talk simply,clearly, and are achieving their vision.Can't ask for more.Although the divie early next year will be welcome.
I think the retirement village/care is in excellent hands.OCA is setting high standards too.
OCA is more care based than SUM and RYM.More like ARV ,so I think they offer a good balance for our portfolio which already has RYM and SUM.

[King1212]

I hope you are being completely clear and transparent !

Look like a good time to top up...the sp is at the button ....

[winner69]

Man, we are going to be back at single digit PE soon if the share price doesn't watch out!

Crazy times indeed.

What's crazy j_t

nz50 being at or close to all time high - is that crazy?

[Beagle]

A very good well set out annual report.
Pleasing having Elizabeth Coutts as chair,as she has impressed me with her Ebos directorship.
OCA have a clear vision,talk simply,clearly, and are achieving their vision.Can't ask for more.Although the divie early next year will be welcome.
I think the retirement village/care is in excellent hands.OCA is setting high standards too.
OCA is more care based than SUM and RYM.More like ARV ,so I think they offer a good balance for our portfolio which already has RYM and SUM.

Thanks Percy. That's how I see it too and as posted the other day I thought the report made for a good read and they articulated their business plan very well.
Agree it makes a good diversification from the other retirement stocks due to its focus on late stage care and their reputation in that regard speaks for itself by the industry awards.
In uncertain times its only natural the risk averse investors will prefer to stick to the stocks they've come to know and trust, (which possibly explains why as a new listing this has come under some pressure lately). Could be an opportunity between now and the election if too many more worried sheep head for the exit gate ?

[Joshuatree]

Thanks for your thoughts guys; happy holder here thanks to tJ. Sheep is a bit derogatory Roger, if people have concerns over uncertainty or anything , no need to belittle ones fellow investors.

[trader_jackson]

What's crazy j_t

nz50 being at or close to all time high - is that crazy?

No, that Oceania Healthcare, a growth company, is trading at single digit PE's again... didn't think I'd see the day OCA would go back under $1, but here we are, for a few days now

[King1212]

Top up today....great opportunity eh TJ

if labour in..the capital gwin tax won't be implanted till 2021...

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11922897

[King1212]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11924548

national is leading...good time to buy while still under $1:t_up:

[King1212]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11921855

[Benny1]

Attended the AGM yesterday, held at the Heritage Hotel in AKL.
Quite formal, and professionally run.
Showed a few videos showing their latest building developments and how they are progressing.
Heart warming video showing a "My Music" initiative in which residents are provided with an iPod loaded with music that they can choose themselves.( wife must have suddenly got something in her eye while that was playing!)
Question asked about whether there has been any indication of a change in Government funding should there be a change after the election, reply was there had been no indication of any changes, Also a question as to pay rates on employees, with a comment from the floor that wages for all workers should be at $20...per hour..

Nice Afternoon Tea of Ham and cheese croissants , several different types of savouries and very nice scones with jam and cream.
Good coffee too!!

THL have their AGM at the same location next month...might have to go to checkout the consistency of the food offering.....

[Fatboyj]

Wow I am jealous at you lucky Aucklanders(or loaded shareholders) to get to go to these great well provided AGM with nibbles and treats.
I guess you must be a shareholder to get in, can you bring a spouse along? I like entertainment with freebies.

Sounds like it was a good AGM. That min pay will hurt the bottom line but I think its great to have well paid staff doing a difficult job.

[tim23]

This garbage belongs on the Election forum.
Taxcinda.

We're trending, A howl of approval from this bottomless pocketed lardass.

As the effect wears, steady Bill will steer us from the jagged teeth shaped rocks and back to reality.

A portfolio of solid red arrows is bad for the country. Lets do this people.

Oh yea seeing OCA go red today was a hard slap in the face and got this blobby butt moving.

[Bjauck]

This garbage belongs on the Election forum. I couldn't agree more. Although, it is good to get unbiassed analysis of political promises.

[Benny1]

Wow I am jealous at you lucky Aucklanders(or loaded shareholders) to get to go to these great well provided AGM with nibbles and treats.
I guess you must be a shareholder to get in, can you bring a spouse along? I like entertainment with freebies.

Sounds like it was a good AGM. That min pay will hurt the bottom line but I think its great to have well paid staff doing a difficult job.

Wife and I are joint Shareholders...not sure on the rules as far as whether non-shareholders can attend.

[huxley]

Last chance to buy before the weekend! Over $1.00 Monday morning :t_up:

[Fatboyj]

Your psychic senses saying 3 more years of blue?

[huxley]

Your psychic senses saying 3 more years of blue?


Yes! I guarantee it!*




*Not investment advice: This post is not intended to constitute, does not constitute, and should not be construed as constituting, investment advice nor is it a substitute for commercial judgment or other professional advice. Investors, or potential investors, should: (i) conduct independent due diligence on any investments; and (ii) obtain independent investment and professional advice, including tax advice, prior to acting in reliance on this post.

[King1212]

Would see OCA back to $1 ish on Monday if national won....

[trader_jackson]

Would see OCA back to $1 ish on Monday if national won....

Might take a week or two to get to $1... but really should see it there on Monday seeing OCA is already the cheapest in the sector

[Fatboyj]

Yes! I guarantee it!*


You are wise beyond your years.

Well done nats on a 4th term. Please give Winnie foreign minister job that'll give Brownlee a kick in his fat nuts.

[aajm1490]

Hi all,


Posting one last time in case anyone missed it.


Colmar Brunton is conducting some research on behalf of the Financial Markets Authority (FMA) about what information investors find most helpful to make informed decisions about particular investments. This will help the FMA improve product disclosure documents to make them more useful for investors. We're looking for people to take part in paid research interviews at our Auckland and Wellington offices over the next few weeks.


We'd like to talk with you if you have recently invested, or seriously considered investing, in the Oceania IPO.


Your contact details and the feedback you provide in interviews will be completely annonymised and will not be used for any other purpose. If you are interested in taking part, please email ali.ajmal@colmarbrunton.co.nz with your contact details including a phone number.


Thanks


PS: If you're interested, please get in touch via the email above.
PPS: This message was cleared with an ST Admin before being posted.

[Ggcc]

This stock goes neither down or up...... All the other retirement stocks seemed to go up yesterday. Let's see what happens when the government is formed. Maybe oceania is just fair value rather than a bargain

[winner69]

All the excitement gone has it .... meteoric rise in OCA share price came to a shuddering halt .....over 110 wasn't it and heading to 120 plus ....they were the good times

Maybe FNZC needs to suggest a merger with SUM

But obviously 90 somethign is all its really worth

[hardt]

All the excitement gone has it .... meteoric rise in OCA share price came to a shuddering halt .....over 110 wasn't it and heading to 120 plus ....they were the good times

Maybe FNZC needs to suggest a merger with SUM

But obviously 90 something is all its really worth

An underlying forward PE of 10-13 is fair.

Likely paying out a 5-6c gross dividend, should be valued slightly higher than 90c. (10-20% maybe)

[BlackPeter]

All the excitement gone has it .... meteoric rise in OCA share price came to a shuddering halt .....over 110 wasn't it and heading to 120 plus ....they were the good times

Maybe FNZC needs to suggest a merger with SUM

But obviously 90 somethign is all its really worth

How do you know how much its really worth? We only know what the market is at current prepared to pay for it, which might be more or less than what it is worth. Anyway - SP nicely staying North of the MA100 and MA200 - no worries ;);

[Beagle]

Without digging into the IPO documentation again, (hey its the weekend) I think the confusion is highly likely to stem from the accounting standards.
International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) requires property investment companies, (which is what retirement companies basically are) to include revaluations of their property portfolio each year, as well as all other realised profits into earnings under the generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). These are then included in the figure reported as Net Profit before tax but the revaluations are of course exempt for tax under N.Z. tax law so are excluded for tax purposes. So all clear as mud so far ?

EBITDA on the other hand is the figure that will exclude the above annual portfolio revaluation but include gains actually realised during the year (i.e.realised development gains on new units sold and realised gains on resale's of old occupation licenses.

One measure includes all unrealized and realised gains, the other just realised gains.

Underlying profit, (which is my favourite measure) is EDITDA less of course interest, depreciation and amortization.

So all crystal clear then :) Probably pure coincidence that the two figures are much the same. Let me know if you'd like me to look into this a bit more next week to ensure its just a coincidence the two figures are very similar. Page 14 useful as Winner has suggested but I completely understand most people's eyes will simply glaze over and I don't blame them to be honest.

The key figure to concentrate on and the one all the analysts use for comparison purposes is underlying profit. Underlying profit is forecast at 8.42 cps for FY18.
Now what's the right PE ?, that the debate. Provided they do what they say they will do I see it at 14-15 ($1.18 - $1.26) in 12 months time + 4.7% dividend yield but then I am also hopeful that SUM will be on a 17-18 PE by then which would see them close to $6.

The caveat here however is that if Winston Peter's is the kingmaker and he wants to smash immigration out of the park with the consequent effect on the property market, all bets are off !

Posted 29 July 2017,. emphasis added this time. I believe the issue now is this. We have SUM as a proven performer over the last 6 years on a forward PE of 13.5 and SP is stagnant for want of a better description. With OCA there is no track record of listed performance and we have a one year forecast of 40% profit growth to 8.42 cps. I think given the uncertainty its only natural people want to stick with proven performers, (notice how RYM with the longest track record of proven performance has been least affected) and this newly listed stock deserves to trade at a material PE discount to SUM. About a 2 PE discount is the absolute minimum discount I think is appropriate so the shares probably are about fair - full value on a relative basis. I think you can lay the blame directly at the feet of the prospect of a left wing Government for the current softness in the retirement sector stocks.

[whatsup]

Great to see OCA awake from its month long slumber this afo & up 4% on the day

[Beagle]

Great to see OCA awake from its month long slumber this afo & up 4% on the day

Yeap I agree. I still have SUM OCA.

[flyer]

All the excitement gone has it .... meteoric rise in OCA share price came to a shuddering halt .....over 110 wasn't it and heading to 120 plus ....they were the good times

Maybe FNZC needs to suggest a merger with SUM

But obviously 90 somethign is all its really worth

THANKS - Just the kick it needed.

[huxley]

Well.. Winston has officially yet to make up his mind, but the market seems to have decided he's sticking to the status quo - LONG LIVE THE KING

[horus1]

It seems to me he hasnt got what he wants and is holding out for more from either nat or lab. The excuses are ludicrous . Who would vote for this ,NZ FIRST , shambles.

[Ggcc]

Big numbers today on market. I do wonder when the government get formed whether the price will go up or down. If labour gets in we might see a drop and if National gets in we will see a steady gain I think.

[trader_jackson]

Not big numbers for OCA though, or the rest of the retirement sector (perhaps surprisingly), or at least not yet

The recent, relatively fast, bounce from the 95-96c back to $1.03 - $1.04 shows they think National will get in (my thinking anyway)

On another note, such a beautiful day in Auckland today, went to have a look at OCA's Maureen Plowman Development - pretty impressive what they are going to put in there - 64 Apartments; 12 Care Suites; 32 Care Studios - given the fairly small 7,126 sqm site. Big crane there with the concrete truck poring the basement parking level (I think there are 2 levels of underground parking, with 5 levels on top) - expensive stuff.

Likely to be mostly million dollar plus apartments I reckon and I'm not sure if there is any retirement village in the country where you can walk about 20m and be on the (actual) beach - sell down to begin in May 2019 (so a while away) and interest is likely to be strong.

[huxley]

Not big numbers for OCA though, or the rest of the retirement sector (perhaps surprisingly), or at least not yet

The recent, relatively fast, bounce from the 95-96c back to $1.03 - $1.04 shows they think National will get in (my thinking anyway)

On another note, such a beautiful day in Auckland today, went to have a look at OCA's Maureen Plowman Development - pretty impressive what they are going to put in there - 64 Apartments; 12 Care Suites; 32 Care Studios - given the fairly small 7,126 sqm site. Big crane there with the concrete truck poring the basement parking level (I think there are 2 levels of underground parking, with 5 levels on top) - expensive stuff.

Likely to be mostly million dollar plus apartments I reckon and I'm not sure if there is any retirement village in the country where you can walk about 20m and be on the (actual) beach - sell down to begin in May 2019 (so a while away) and interest is likely to be strong.


All retirement stocks down today, cheers heard from the Labour offices...

[trader_jackson]

All retirement stocks down today, cheers heard from the Labour offices...

OCA didn't go down I don't think?

[huxley]

I stand corrected :mellow:

[huxley]

vwap 103.97

[huxley]

Interesting to see tomorrows open, eh?

[Ggcc]

Interesting to see tomorrows open, eh?
I think we will see some bargains tomorrow on all the retirement stocks

[macduffy]

I think we will see some bargains tomorrow on all the retirement stocks

Perhaps, but it won't make any difference to the surge in the number of retirees who will be looking for a place in a retirement village in the next decade or so.

:cool:

[trader_jackson]

I think we will see some bargains tomorrow on all the retirement stocks

SUM more than others I reckon... those with emphasis on care, low price / book and low debt ratios should (really) be less in the firing line than SUM others.

[percy]

Perhaps, but it won't make any difference to the surge in the number of retirees who will be looking for a place in a retirement village in the next decade or so.

:cool:

I think the result will age the older "true blues" ten years overnight,so the surge will start tomorrow.!!..lol.

[King1212]

Slide 11...

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/262296.pdf

aged care service provides revenue streams that resilient aging property market volatility.

[trader_jackson]

Slide 11...

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/262296.pdf

aged care service provides revenue streams that resilient aging property market volatility.

Just as well then! What about sum other companies that don't have such a strong care operation? hmm

[huxley]

Slide 11...

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/262296.pdf

aged care service provides revenue streams that resilient aging property market volatility.

Oh, of course, but it’s interesting to look at what the market sentiment thinks. These business are all essential to provide the infrastructure nz needs to meet the demand for our aging population. No question.

[JeremyALD]

Where are they going to get all their staff from when immigration is reduced by more than 50% though?

[trader_jackson]

Where are they going to get all their staff from when immigration is reduced by more than 50% though?

Not sure, although I'm not so sure immigration has as bigger hit on retirement villages as some may perceive (bit like the whole big wage rise thing - impacts some more than others I suppose).

Where are all the builders going to come from to build the lofty, say 450 (and even higher numbers in coming years), units sum in the sector are hoping to build? (as reflected in there very high price to book valuation)

Sorry, the sum puns are just to easy!

[King1212]

I hope you are being completely clear and transparent !


My wife worked as RN at the rest home...most of the staff,migrants all have gained their permanent residency ..

[King1212]

Wondered who was the lucky one that picked 97c this morning...?

[trader_jackson]

Wondered who was the lucky one that picked 97c this morning...?

I'm more curious as to who was the one that panicked ;)

Probably be back at $1.00 by day's end, maybe higher - crazy that this only recently traded around 95 to 96c, apparently because of political risk (I think? Maybe?) and now it is still higher than these recent times - amazing what a bit of market sediment towards one or multiple stocks can do, when fundamental valuation is replaced with illogical panic.

[King1212]

I'm more curious as to who was the one that panicked ;)

Probably be back at $1.00 by day's end, maybe higher - crazy that this only recently traded around 95 to 96c, apparently because of political risk (I think? Maybe?) and now it is still higher than these recent times - amazing what a bit of market sediment towards one or multiple stocks can do, when fundamental valuation is replaced with illogical panic.

Newbies panicked...read too many rumour on ST forum....

[Jantar]

Newbies panicked...read too many rumour on ST forum....Maybe not so much panick, as using the downturn to rebalance. I was a bit overweight in OCA so sold half at $1.01

[hardt]

Selling down only because you worry your neighbour will sell down is how it starts

[Ggcc]

maybe 90 cents on the cards.... So much downward pressure

[thestg]

Nice action on OCA in the last hour. Should go over $1.00 next week with a bit of luck.

[trader_jackson]

Nice action on OCA in the last hour. Should go over $1.00 next week with a bit of luck.

Should never have gone below $1 - Aside from ARV briefly, I can't believe OCA was so hard hit (given it was already the cheapest on a price to book ratio - and apparently it is all about the re-sale values and how these must be hit hard by decreasing profit prices[??])

[winner69]

Nice action on OCA in the last hour. Should go over $1.00 next week with a bit of luck.

Luck and hope not a good strategy

What’s your pick for the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday?

[Baa_Baa]

Luck and hope not a good strategy

What’s your pick for the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday?

Hey winner, do you get the feeling we're close to full cycle when lots of company's are hyper priced, future prosperity is baked in, and the punters reckon a good profitable growing business should always be rewarded with rising market valuations? They can't fathom why a 'market' would sell their stock at all, let alone at something below their perceived valuation. The stock market as many 'older' (more experienced?) folk know, doesn't give a monkeys about valuations, FA, TA or any bloody thing when the plug is pulled, or even when some sector nervousness creeps in. That's why it's helpful to be an active investor imo, realtime awareness, run with the upside, cut the losses and cull the noise.

[thestg]

Luck and hope not a good strategy

What’s your pick for the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday?

I think I'll skip my Melbourne Cup investments this year & put the lot on OCA while it is still under $1.00

[winner69]

Hey winner, do you get the feeling we're close to full cycle when lots of company's are hyper priced, future prosperity is baked in, and the punters reckon a good profitable growing business should always be rewarded with rising market valuations? They can't fathom why a 'market' would sell their stock at all, let alone at something below their perceived valuation. The stock market as many 'older' (more experienced?) folk know, doesn't give a monkeys about valuations, FA, TA or any bloody thing when the plug is pulled, or even when some sector nervousness creeps in. That's why it's helpful to be an active investor imo, realtime awareness, run with the upside, cut the losses and cull the noise.

Hey baa_baa, agree with your comments.

I think there are many on here who have only experienced a ‘half cycle’ and that being the better half with rising prices and valuation prices. Where we are now is what you outline.

Appreciation of a full cycle is a valuable tool. And many stocks on the NZX are showing similar behaviour as they did in 2007/2008 with weakening prices and multiples ..and this was happening then before the gfc triggered collapse (forward looking eh)

These current “stupid” “crazy” priced stocks I reckon will remain so for a while ...might even get “cheaper” and some would say that’s nonsense.

Sentiment is the key driver of share prices and that is measured by things like PE multiples. Even PE multiples move in cycles. The study of secular bull and bear markets is fascinating and well worth understanding properly.

[King1212]

Hey baa_baa, agree with your comments.

I think there are many on here who have only experienced a ‘half cycle’ and that being the better half with rising prices and valuation prices. Where we are now is what you outline.

Appreciation of a full cycle is a valuable tool. And many stocks on the NZX are showing similar behaviour as they did in 2007/2008 with weakening prices and multiples ..and this was happening then before the gfc triggered collapse (forward looking eh)

These current “stupid” “crazy” priced stocks I reckon will remain so for a while ...might even get “cheaper” and some would say that’s nonsense.

Sentiment is the key driver of share prices and that is measured by things like PE multiples. Even PE multiples move in cycles. The study of secular bull and bear markets is fascinating and well worth understanding properly.


I reconk once the red government in n stable..the price will go down slowly....so counting 100days.....

[minimoke]

I reconk once the red government in n stable..the price will go down slowly....so counting 100days.....
One way of solving the "housing Crisis" is to get the Baby Boomers out of their 3 - 4 bedroom homes near schools and other infrastructure and get them into Retirement Villages

[whatsup]

One way of solving the "housing Crisis" is to get the Baby Boomers out of their 3 - 4 bedroom homes near schools and other infrastructure and get them into Retirement Villages

Why should they, this one and the previous generation are the selfish generation !!

[King1212]

Why should them, this one and the previous generation are the selfish generation !!


Right! Why should them. The baby boomers worked hard..now young generations have no work ethic...complaint n complaint then blame it to the Asians....bloodily meme generations...

[whatsup]

Right! Why should them. The baby boomers worked hard..now young generations have no work ethic...complaint n complaint then blame it to the Asians....bloodily meme generations...

and fed that attitude by the bleeding wingeing left , gut spineless prats !!

[Bjauck]

Why should they, this one and the previous generation are the selfish generation !! LOL. The generations that have enjoyed the fortune of benefiting from leveraged real estate capital gains as a result of falling interest rates now tell the generations largely locked out of owning stand alone housing that they should settle for either being renters or owning a small flat in a hastily built apartment block!

Not to mention that the younger generations have to deal with the inability of the older generations to supply sufficient residential land to cope with the demand for it due to investment, tax and migration policies.

[Bjauck]

and fed that attitude by the bleeding wingeing left , gut spineless prats !! Yikes...as opposed to the feeling of entitlement held by some baby boomers?

[whatsup]

Yikes...as opposed to the feeling of entitlement held by some baby boomers?

Bj, the trouble with these generations is that they "know their rights but do not acknowledge their responsibilities" and if there was another war they would say " its nothing to do with me , Im off for a coffffeee ! "
.

[whatsup]

LOL. The generations that have enjoyed the fortune of benefiting from leveraged real estate capital gains as a result of falling interest rates now tell the generations largely locked out of owning stand alone housing that they should settle for either being renters or owning a small flat in a hastily built apartment block!

Not to mention that the younger generations have to deal with the inability of the older generations to supply sufficient residential land to cope with the demand for it due to investment, tax and migration policies.

Bj , If you check history you will find in Auckland the issue of land available for housing can be sheeted back IMO to the ARC and its chairman one Mr Mike Lea who steadfastedly refused to zone rural land for housing in his tenure coupled with the last and preceeding Auck Council who was/is lead by a Labour mayor, what should we expect from the left, no real understanding of how business works and never will, just like this current mess of a government !!

[minimoke]

Why should they, this one and the previous generation are the selfish generation !!
I'm not suggesting the Baby Boomers be required to go into retirement villages - just perhaps some kind of incentive might be more cost efficient than creating "Affordable Houses" in areas that don't already have established infrastructure for those going into the Affordable Houses

[Ggcc]

Wow looks like a downtrend on no news... 90 cents coming up?? This sector is under huge pressure since government change. Long term holders don't need to stress..... Short term holders might want to break until 90 cents gets hit.

by the way these are guesses and no way financial advice

[trader_jackson]

Wow looks like a downtrend on no news... 90 cents coming up?? This sector is under huge pressure since government change. Long term holders don't need to stress..... Short term holders might want to break until 90 cents gets hit.

by the way these are guesses and no way financial advice

Kinda crazy really isn't it... OCA trading on the lowest price to book ratio (the thing you'd think, if anything, would get hit when talking about property valuations), growth well into the double digits, have a reasonable development pipeline, a very solid reputation and position in the market, and to top it all off: low debt, and to top off the top off, over 4% dividend in the bank by this time next year (at current prices)...

Even craigs's report dated mid June reckoned it was worth 97 cents - and that was before OCA beat their prospectus EBIDTA and seemed to indicate it was "well positioned" to meet their prospectus forecasts for FY18.

Anyhow, "the original dog" is due to report their half year tomorrow, and some say OCA is the most comparable, so could be interesting - you'd think if "the original dog" produced an at least ok report, then "the new dog" would benefit somewhat, but then again you'd also think OCA would be significantly closer to the $1 mark than the 90 cent mark.

[Snow Leopard]

Seems to be in on the Retirement Village Boat Lifting exercise.

I put a 'at market' bid in yesterday to have the market move quicker than my finger on the buy button.

I would be up 5% if I had pounced quicker !


Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[warren]

I have purchased few start ups but I am,so far, delighted with this one. The care% of income pleases me and protects somewhat from property downturn. The returns look like being 5% double the bank rate and the leadership have their money up and appear to be legitimate builders of business as against scoundrels that plague us investors. Well done so far OHC

[tipsy]

When is this going to break through the $1 mark again? Feels like we've been stuck on 97/98 for weeks.

[warren]

When is this going to break through the $1 mark again? Feels like we've been stuck on 97/98 for weeks.

Why should it ? Because you want it to? Wow about 100 million wanted the market to break through in 1929.! The market says 97 is the perfect price and here is why----no dividend history, unproven business, new to the market. I am delighted as I have said ----A lovely share at about 97 cents. Wait patiently for a very nice dividend hopefully 5.5%, encourage good honest management and in 18 months time it will coast through $1.00 maybe even $1.10-- wow.

[trader_jackson]

When is this going to break through the $1 mark again? Feels like we've been stuck on 97/98 for weeks.

Hasn't actually been terribly volatile, like some of the operators... which is a good and bad thing I suppose. warren is correct about it being 'unproven', it is actually proven it can do very well, just not on the exchange aka not to Mr Market - but that time will come, and it was kicked off with last years result already being slightly ahead of forecast. Look at Ryman, huge premium there, mainly because Mr Market believes they are a 'proven business' (even if they are having the lowest growth recently in quite some time)

Only a matter of time before the market starts getting more excited about the new dog (that is Oceania Healthcare), half year results could provide a small boost, although there is probably also some uncertainty as to how/when Macquarie will try jump out, but once this is done (increasing liquidity), likely a one way ticket to the NZX 50, and the share price will be significantly higher than the high 90 cent range (i would think).

[Beagle]

I see these as fair value at present and hold a modest stake. It takes time to build one's track record. Once we start to see their batting average over the next few half year periods the market will get more comfortable with it and probably ascribe a slightly higher PE and along with underlying earnings growth patient holders should do well.

[Ggcc]

http://www.4-traders.com/OCEANIA-HEALTHCARE-LTD-34790010/financials/
Just a few figures as to why the price is what it is. These are just guidance figures and I would not be surprised if Oceania better these figures in terms of net income over the coming years.

[warren]

http://www.4-traders.com/OCEANIA-HEALTHCARE-LTD-34790010/financials/
Just a few figures as to why the price is what it is. These are just guidance figures and I would not be surprised if Oceania better these figures in terms of net income over the coming years.

What I will say about OHC is that when we transferred my very infirm, old Dad from another aged care company to OHC and the the superior care and organization of OHC was quite remarkable. I knew then it was a "superior" organization in every aspect that I could see. OHC was so good at its core business I grabbed quite a holding as soon as I could. I suspect I will never regret that decision. Take a visit to Lady Alum Home, Milford or the Maureen Plowman Village at Brownsbay. Talk to the staff, check their qualifications, look at the cleanliness and the entertainment roster as I did many times. Impressive and well done OHC as you prepare for the aged tidal wave that's coming.

[King1212]

What I will say about OHC is that when we transferred my very infirm, old Dad from another aged care company to OHC and the the superior care and organization of OHC was quite remarkable. I knew then it was a "superior" organization in every aspect that I could see. OHC was so good at its core business I grabbed quite a holding as soon as I could. I suspect I will never regret that decision. Take a visit to Lady Alum Home, Milford or the Maureen Plowman Village at Brownsbay. Talk to the staff, check their qualifications, look at the cleanliness and the entertainment roster as I did many times. Impressive and well done OHC as you prepare for the aged tidal wave that's coming.

What is OHC?

[warren]

What is OHC?

correction OCA

[Beagle]

What I will say about OHC is that when we transferred my very infirm, old Dad from another aged care company to OHC and the the superior care and organization of OHC was quite remarkable. I knew then it was a "superior" organization in every aspect that I could see. OHC was so good at its core business I grabbed quite a holding as soon as I could. I suspect I will never regret that decision. Take a visit to Lady Alum Home, Milford or the Maureen Plowman Village at Brownsbay. Talk to the staff, check their qualifications, look at the cleanliness and the entertainment roster as I did many times. Impressive and well done OHC as you prepare for the aged tidal wave that's coming.

Agree, I hear very good things about the quality of their care services. I have a modest holding.

[dabsman]

Whats everyone's guess on OCA dividend CPS? I've got 2 CPS in my spreadsheet so 4 CPS for the year. Am I being ambitious?

[Ggcc]

Whats everyone's guess on OCA dividend CPS? I've got 2 CPS in my spreadsheet so 4 CPS for the year. Am I being ambitious?

Roughly 4 cents for 2018 and 5 cents for 2019 and 2020. These are what 4 traders gives us as a forecast.

[trader_jackson]

Roughly 4 cents for 2018 and 5 cents for 2019 and 2020. These are what 4 traders gives us as a forecast.

Craigs reckon just 2c for 2018 (probably only believe a dividend will be paid at full year announcement rather than half year) - although I believe 4.5c for 2018 is possible.

[macduffy]

Whats everyone's guess on OCA dividend CPS? I've got 2 CPS in my spreadsheet so 4 CPS for the year. Am I being ambitious?

2cps? 4cps? 4.5cps? Not buying OCA for the dividends at this stage of its growth.

:)

[dabsman]

2cps? 4cps? 4.5cps? Not buying OCA for the dividends at this stage of its growth.

:)

Agreed - but this pays for my margin account so I like to cover interest with net dividend ;)

[winner69]

t_j finally a greenfields site. That will please you

St Heliers nice spot (hope no grumpy neighbours)

Wonder what they paid for it?

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/312048/271928.pdf

[winner69]

Nice spot for a village that new piece of land

https://www.bayleys.co.nz/1684142

[trader_jackson]

t_j finally a greenfields site. That will please you

St Heliers nice spot (hope no grumpy neighbours)

Wonder what they paid for it?

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/312048/271928.pdf

Great stuff - I thought this would be marked price sensitive as it shows a clear step in the growth direction - they are jumping into the bigly game (that allows sum other operators to trade at much higher price to book price to underlying PE etc ratios) that is high risk high reward greenfield development. Jumping in quite a bit sooner than I thought, probably also means higher growth than what I thought (and far far higher growth than the market is currently pricing up).
You'd think we'd see over a dollar by the end of the week, worst case, but probably not.

[percy]

Great stuff - I thought this would be marked price sensitive as it shows a clear step in the growth direction - they are jumping into the bigly game (that allows sum other operators to trade at much higher price to book price to underlying PE etc ratios) that is high risk high reward greenfield development. Jumping in quite a bit sooner than I thought, probably also means higher growth than what I thought (and far far higher growth than the market is currently pricing up).
You'd think we'd see over a dollar by the end of the week, worst case, but probably not.
I would guess this St,Heliers site purchase would be driven by the level of enquires/sales they are achieving at Maureen Plowman,Browns Bay.As you point out a clear step in the growth direction.

[macduffy]

Nice spot for a village that new piece of land

https://www.bayleys.co.nz/1684142

Indeed! The general area is short of quality retirement facilities although others' developments at Meadowbank and St Johns will compete for residents.

[winner69]

Indeed! The general area is short of quality retirement facilities although others' developments at Meadowbank and St Johns will compete for residents.


Hopefully will be pretty expensive high margin (for OCA) units

[percy]

Hopefully will be pretty expensive high margin (for OCA) units

It would be the most compelling reason,otherwise, why do it ,when they already have years of brown field development land.

[Beagle]

I think this pup could bark a bit in 2018. If they can exceed their forecast numbers and the outlook is encouraging the underlying PE is cheap as chips.

[King1212]

It is slowly going up. Sellers are drying up. Wonder I should top up again. Like mr dog said...the pup could bark in 4 weeks time...25th Jan 2018?

[Beagle]

Or maybe the pup trips over its own paws ?, early days, too hard to tell. Interesting move to buy that site on unconditional terms. Hope the neighbors are friendly to the consent process.Quite like the way MET buy sites conditional on consents and due diligence, very little risk in that approach. A little birdie tells me their care standards are very very good.
Disc: Modest holding, lets see what their batting average looks like over the next few years.

[King1212]

Or maybe the pup trips over its own paws ?, early days, too hard to tell. Interesting move to buy that site on unconditional terms. Hope the neighbors are friendly to the consent process.Quite like the way MET buy sites conditional on consents and due diligence, very little risk in that approach. A little birdie tells me their care standards are very very good.
Disc: Modest holding, lets see what their batting average looks like over the next few years.

i doubt it will trips over. Thier last report was exceeding market expectation. Plenty of progresses which completed thier end of year n scheduled to be completed early next year. Yes, indeed. Thier care is excellent..better than Arvida. My wife is RN...her friend works at OCA.

[Jay]

Their lasts purchase is right in the middle of some very expensive homes, not sure the neighbours will be impressed, then again the land is a bit of an eyesore at the moment, has been for quite some time. They were/are all individual sites reasonably large. Think they were part of nearly half of two streets someone bought up with a view to building their own gated type community or something similar, until all it all fell over.

[huxley]

i doubt it will trips over. Thier last report was exceeding market expectation. Plenty of progresses which completed thier end of year n scheduled to be completed early next year. Yes, indeed. Thier care is excellent..better than Arvida. My wife is RN...her friend works at OCA.

Well I guess if you doubt it’ll trip over, then I guess it’s a BUY

[Beagle]

Well I guess if you doubt it’ll trip over, then I guess it’s a BUY
So little value left on the NZX perhaps given relative valuations the potential rewards could outweigh the risks ? I suspect this has a reasonable chance of being a top performer for 2018. Might double down if I'm feeling brave soon.

[trader_jackson]

So little value left on the NZX perhaps given relative valuations the potential rewards could outweigh the risks ? I suspect this has a reasonable chance of being a top performer for 2018. Might double down if I'm feeling brave soon.

I have also heard OCA has very good care standards, and continuum of care. I would hesitate to agree they are better than Arvida ;) (and that is when you know they really are the best!). Like I boldlyand bravely called a few years ago with Arvida, I think OCA could be the top performer over the coming year.

[King1212]

I have also heard OCA has very good care standards, and continuum of care. I would hesitate to agree they are better than Arvida ;) (and that is when you know they really are the best!). Like I boldlyand bravely called a few years ago with Arvida, I think OCA could be the top performer over the coming year.


Yes..topped up a small parcel again this morning...

[King1212]

So little value left on the NZX perhaps given relative valuations the potential rewards could outweigh the risks ? I suspect this has a reasonable chance of being a top performer for 2018. Might double down if I'm feeling brave soon.


Come on mr dog!..read thier recent presentation.....that will make u grave enough to double down:scared:

[huxley]

I confess l’ve been buying a few more lately, while they’ve been trading under $1, oh and this one is one of my nzx competition picks for 2018! Time will tell.. a bit risky compared to it’s pairs, but I like the potential :)

[peat]

grave enough

an amusing slip for this thread.

[King1212]

an amusing slip for this thread.

My apology! Brave enough...

[Beagle]

One suspects they have a better than fair chance of leveraging off their excellent care reputation to grow nicely over the long term.

[King1212]

Got to say..not much value share at NZX now..except OCA

[Food4Thought]

Maybe a bit late, yet I see OCA as a opportunity. Long term, has potential.

Disc. Had a look, liked what I saw. Bought a small parcel. Diversified

[Beagle]

Got to say..not much value share at NZX now..except OCA

Yes its been a big year on the NZX with the market up 23% and value getting harder to find which will encourage more people to look at left field less obvious choices.
Lots of potential if they can prove themselves but investors jaded from getting skunked on a lot of new listings in recent years (TGH, EVO and MPG to name just 3) will need to see a steady string of positive announcements before they'll ascribe a market average sector PE to this one. If they can prove themselves and grow earnings nicely over the next few years this has plenty of potential to double over time with some reasonable PE expansion thrown in as the company builds trust with the market.
I am cautiously optimistic over the long run.

[winner69]

Forward looking say OCA underlying profit F18 (May year end) of $50m puts them on a forward looking PE of 12 (they haven’t said what F18 profit going to be but refer to underlying ebitda of $62m so using that)

SUM underlying profit F18 (December year end) say $100m (+20% on F17) puts them on forward looking PE of 12

Think I know which is better value / cheapest or whatever

probably completely wrong about OCA forecast - you never know they might make as much as SUM. I stand to be corrected

[Beagle]

Forward looking say OCA underlying profit F18 (May year end) of $50m puts them on a forward looking PE of 12 (they haven’t said what F18 profit going to be but refer to underlying ebitda of $62m so using that)

SUM underlying profit F18 (December year end) say $100m (+20% on F17) puts them on forward looking PE of 12

Think I know which is better value / cheapest or whatever

probably completely wrong about OCA forecast - you never know they might make as much as SUM. I stand to be corrected

Yes I don't think underlying profit of $100m for SUM is out of the question for 2018. Disc: SUM easily my largest holding in this sector but I think OCA has the potential to grow their development model very nicely and could surprise on the upside.

[Food4Thought]

Big dig for OCA for you Winner69. I found it a good opportunity to buy in now and consider the long term potential for another retirement stock.

With the hopeless rate at most banks for earning interest, the additional uncertainty around the housing market, the stock market seems relatively solid.

The effect of a increasing New Zealand population, from natural growth and of course immigration, takes time to factor into the market. Many people are not quickly aware of the options available to them for investing and securing their finances into a variety of assets. IMO the money from internal and offshore will keep the tide moving higher for the New Zealand share market for some time.

I believe there is plenty of potential to find value in New Zealand.

Long term I am in big favour for beautiful New Zealand.

[winner69]

Yes I don't think underlying profit of $100m for SUM is out of the question for 2018. Disc: SUM easily my largest holding in this sector but I think OCA has the potential to grow their development model very nicely and could surprise on the upside.

So by implication the market could end rating OCA (much) higher than SUM .....hmm

[BlackPeter]

So by implication the market could end rating OCA (much) higher than SUM .....hmm

I could absolutly live with my OCA shares being similarly rated to my SUM shares ... :t_up:

[Beagle]

So by implication the market could end rating OCA (much) higher than SUM .....hmm

SUM maths which really says what I think. Yes SUM are very very cheap on a forward basis and also have potential to rerate back up to the mid point PE for the sector once the market gets comfortable that the sky isn't falling in the real estate market, (SUM more development focused) I have twice as many OCA as SUM after doubling down on OCA today..but they are quite different prices so more than double the amount of capital invested in SUM :) Two different models mate. OCA very big on the care side and have a stellar reputation. SUM birdie tells me SUM other companies have work to do in their care centers.

[couta1]

Okay, here is the Couta rating scale for care and development amongst RYM/SUM/OCA. On the care side Rym and OCA both excellent with Sum a distant third. Sum number one for development at the moment. Rym earn the top ranking for the combo package and deserve to be the biggest/baddest dog on the porch. PS-Not including Arv or Met as I don't have an intimate knowledge of their care operations. PPS-You may want to ponder why Sum has issued a profit upgrade on such a small projected increase from the original, just a few weeks before their Q4 metrics.

[winner69]

Okay, here is the Couta rating scale for care and development amongst RYM/SUM/OCA. On the care side Rym and OCA both excellent with Sum a distant third. Sum number one for development at the moment. Rym earn the top ranking for the combo package and deserve to be the biggest/baddest dog on the porch. PS-Not including Arv or Met as I don't have an intimate knowledge of their care operations. PPS-You may want to ponder why Sum has issued a profit upgrade on such a small projected increase from the original, just a few weeks before their Q4 metrics.

Let me guess?

Better not I might get it right

[winner69]

How does one value the 'care' part of the business as opposed to developing and operating villages

OCA reported they made $31m ebitda from 'care' in F17. Ryman seem to make about $45m npbt, ARV a small amount (maybe $4m tops) and SUM stuff all.

What bearing does this have on the ultimate market valuation (share price) of each ......seeing earnings and value appear to be driven by village development and operation.

Like couta's question there probably is a why in the question but I don't know what

[peat]

i would venture to suggest the care side is a fiscal drag on the business but one which will be a strong selling point.

[Beagle]

Yes the timing and quantum of SUM's profit upgrade as well as the omission of confirmation of 450 build target despite being in all previous releases means its not awfully hard to follow the trail of breadcrumbs... but in their defense up until about a month ago we had the wettest year for at least a decade and that can make it pretty tough to get developments completed on time. Still very strong profit growth exceeding previous forecast and I am expecting very strong Q1 metrics in early April 2018 as some completions / sales that should have been done in Q4 roll over. Sets the company up for good growth next year too.
SUM make nothing out of their care centers so its not hugely relevant and by the way according to their latest Summerset Scene magazine customer care satisfaction level's are very good at 96.8%. Forward PE of around 12 for FY18 is very very cheap given their proven record of growing at an average rate of 45% over the last six years.

Meanwhile over at OCA their model of superb care drives ongoing demand and other privately owned and charitable trust owned centers closing down due to wage cost pressure will ensure occupation level's at OCA remain very strong indeed. They've made a number of property acquisitions since listing and I am cautiously hopeful they will come along nicely with their development activities. Underlying profit could surprise and we could be trading on a forward PE of as low as 10.

RYM...we all know they're run like the proverbial Swiss watch and are priced like one two on a forward PE of about 25. I rate the chances of sector outperformance by RYM as extremely slim as everyone already expects perfection and will most probably get it and it is already priced for perfection. I am not especially interested in achieving an outcome of average sector performance so don't hold RYM.

Chances of sector outperformance by SUM I rate as very high and OCA as good - very good.

[winner69]

i would venture to suggest the care side is a fiscal drag on the business but one which will be a strong selling point.

.....meaning it is unlikely to be rewarded lofty multiples by the market ...yes?

I think that was my point the other day - SUM generating most of it not all earnings from villages and OCA having a large proportion of earnings from .care. currently on similar forward looking multiples doesn't seem to gel with me

But then some might say OCA is a good solid now and heaps more development is icing on the cake ....ie future enrichment of punters


But then what the heck do I know and it doesnt really matter because the share price of both will be driven by sentiment rather than fundamentals

[Beagle]

.....meaning it is unlikely to be rewarded lofty multiples by the market ...yes?

I think that was my point the other day - SUM generating most of it not all earnings from villages and OCA having a large proportion of earnings from .care. currently on similar forward looking multiples doesn't seem to gel with me

But then some might say OCA is a good solid now and heaps more development is icing on the cake ....ie future enrichment of punters


But then what the heck do I know and it doesnt really matter because the share price of both will be driven by sentiment rather than fundamentals

Perhaps our Couta friend is working on a new dynamic quantum theory of relativity...something like...I dunno...maybe one RYM share is worth ten OCA shares ? (Sorry Couta1 mate, I couldn't resist)
Seriously though I suppose the relative PE thing and SUM making all its money from property is that property is more cyclical than care...anyway what do I know, they're probably both good and worth a bob or three each way. The thing with picking a couple of horses is you're more likely that one will win and if you choose wisely you might get the quinella :)
Disc: Added more shares in OCA this morning. $1.00 is a nice round number and the hound remembers the directors thinking the same in quite considerable volume some time back. Nothing like a decent sized vested interest by insiders to get them working harder is there !

[warren]

i would venture to suggest the care side is a fiscal drag on the business but one which will be a strong selling point.

Wow, a fiscal drag eh? Well several things jump to the fore here. Aged care and investment therein is all about "aged care" is it not? Anything else in this field and one is a dreamer, of that I am certain. Operators with top class methods, staff, training and who can carefully control costs, plan for the coming tidal wave and it sure is coming, offer quality care with a determination to be best in their field will get my dollar every time (in fact quite a few dollars). I see OCA generate 32% of income from "aged care". If they can maintain a steady 5% return as they appear to be I am delighted. The buildings --well that will be important to house the tidal wave and return me 5% hopefully year on year. My dollar in the bank gets about 3.5% before tax. As the "aged care' activity grows into a gigantic operation over time so must my investment become gold edged.

[Food4Thought]

I agree Beagle. It is certainly worth the punt. Must be excited by Winner69's enthusiasm (at least that's what I gauged from his posting)


It is a good round number $1.00 for OCA. I had another look. Have to say I am very much in favour and have even sold up some SUM to get in at this price. I can handle a spread in portfolio and then still have double the value in SUM shares. For me, I see it as a good diversification.

Merry Festivities and bring on Jan 25th

[King1212]

Cheap indeed..will see people Rush in when it comes 25th Jan!

[Onion]

Cheap indeed..will see people Rush in when it comes 25th Jan!

All the boundless enthusiasm has dragged me in to the fold. Luckily I didn't need to sell SUM to join in. And the plumber won't come and take away the refurbished bathroom if I don't pay he bill will he?

I'm starting to build a nice little portfolio of retirement and healthcare stocks. They have worked well for me to date. They have MET my expectations so far and no RYM nor reason to sell down on this OCAsion.

[couta1]

Bought a wee holding at close (Couta sized wee)

[huxley]

578 or 50k lol

[Beagle]

Bought a wee holding at close (Couta sized wee)

Welcome on board. $1.50 by next Christmas :)

[couta1]

578 or 50k lol HaHa, I think you know which one.

[King1212]

HaHa, I think you know which one.


Got to be 578:D

[trader_jackson]

Welcome on board. $1.50 by next Christmas :)

ARV better watch out I suppose
​Although Forsyth reckon ARV is gonna be $1.60+ come next Christmas

[winner69]

Jeez guys ....all this enthusiastic ramping this week and the share price has hardly budged the last few days and is still $1.00

Last time we all ramped this it at least got to $1.11 ......but didn’t kick on to the $1.20 ....$1.50 it’s really worth. Big fail eh.

C’mon guys, we need to do much better this time. Needs more ramping and needs more buying to get the price moving upwards.

Instos and fund managers on holiday now so doesn’t take as much to move the price now ...so c’mon, I anymore getting impatient

Let’s do this ...because if we don’t create some hype and excitement the price will never get to $1.50 ....no matter what the company says on January 25th

Great company, great prospects, cheap as

[winner69]

ARV better watch out I suppose
​Although Forsyth reckon ARV is gonna be $1.60+ come next Christmas

You have an awful lot of faith in Forbar eh .....get a little Christmas present from them did you?

[Ggcc]

I put a valuation of $1.34 on the share by the end of 2018 based on average profit (not taking into account valuations) based on SUM others, but if I put a valuation of RYM I put this share much higher. Then they are different businesses each offering the similar product except the leader runs on years of proving themselves.

[trader_jackson]

You have an awful lot of faith in Forbar eh .....get a little Christmas present from them did you?

One day might get a Christmas present from them...
I thought they were number 1 in some investment award recently?

[King1212]

That was not a ramping..that was purely election fear.bloody Labour capital gain tax...immigration etc.otherwise would see the spare around $1.10 ish now

[winner69]

That was not a ramping..that was purely election fear.bloody Labour capital gain tax...immigration etc.otherwise would see the spare around $1.10 ish now

Surely more than $1.10ish by now. Been a couple of bits of good news since it was $1.11. The nzx50 has also kicked onto new highs

OCA is a laggard and has catching up to do

If OCA is any good it should e $1.30 by half year announcement

Wonder what guru analyst at Forbar has as a target. If + then OCA should be $2.00 eh

[King1212]

Well, 4 weeks to go...the result will loud n clear.

[winner69]

Well, 4 weeks to go...the result will loud n clear.

Bound to be a good un

No doubt there will be a strong increase in the share price in the run up to the announcement

The buy the rumour (hype) sell the fact thing won’t hold true this time ...... the facts will be heaps better than ‘rumoured’

$1.50 here we come

[Joshuatree]

Cant see any facts in there:). Foundation holder here. Finding value on the NZX is as rare as rocking horse droppings atm.

[couta1]

Bound to be a good un

No doubt there will be a strong increase in the share price in the run up to the announcement

The buy the rumour (hype) sell the fact thing won’t hold true this time ...... the facts will be heaps better than ‘rumoured’

$1.50 here we come Must be $1.50 by next Christmas as that's the figure Beagle and I agreed on yesterday morning and now you have confirmed it, a triune confirmation.

[Beagle]

Yeap, nice sweet 50% gain coming in 2018 as the tidal wave of old folks needing care steps up another gear.

[Joshuatree]

And the rest, $1.82 i reckon,happy cheer all round:t_up:

[King1212]

This is purely not ramping anymore winner....clearly a lot of gurus here see a great current value in OCA....

have a great Christmas people. See u all in new year 2018

[winner69]

Must be $1.50 by next Christmas as that's the figure Beagle and I agreed on yesterday morning and now you have confirmed it, a triune confirmation.

No no couts and beagle ......$1.50 by Easter after the half year good un

Christmas - well JT did mention $1.82 just then and he's a foundation shareholder (whatever that is) and usually pretty spot on with his assessments (share market wise but has some weird political views)

[Joshuatree]

Lindauer Summer all round folks, good cheer "pop":D my favourite sound.

[Fatboyj]

So much(ramping)positive talk but not having much impact on the SP.

Step it up a notch people.

I'll chip in. Occupancy rate down to 88% but will rise to 94% within six months. 4c divi to be announced.

[winner69]

Lindauer Summer all round folks, good cheer "pop":D my favourite sound.

The nice lady at Glengarry’s talked me into some Henri Giraud stuff to go with Christmas lunch.

[percy]

I would not pay a great deal of attention to the occupancy rate.
Developing "brown fields" means they have to get rid of the old buildings for the new ones.

[percy]

The nice lady at Glengarry’s talked me into some Henri Giraud stuff to go with Christmas lunch.

The best buy for me this Christmas has been ;Ruby Bay [Nelson] Sauvignon Blanc 2011,$4.99 a bottle at Pak N Save,Moorhouse Ave,Christchurch.

[JayRiggs]

In the Oceania PDS:

Oceania is forecasting $51.4 million in pro forma Underlying
NPAT in FY2018F, driven by growth in pro forma Underlying

EBITDA in FY2018F, together with prospective pro forma

depreciation and amortisation ($8.7 million), interest
expense ($2.1 million, reflecting a full year with Oceania’s
post-Offer capital structure), and Pro forma Underlying
taxation expense (nil).

Was wondering if you guys were using this figure in your forecasts/estimates/models?

[hogie]

Got my little christmas pressie of OCA shares just now ... apologies for pushing the price down to 99c :P

[winner69]

The best buy for me this Christmas has been ;Ruby Bay [Nelson] Sauvignon Blanc 2011,$4.99 a bottle at Pak N Save,Moorhouse Ave,Christchurch.

That’s good buying Percy

Jeez cheaper than my favourite beer at the moment. That is Sawmill Brewery, The Doctor which is $9.90 a bottle ......and the bottles smaller than your Ruby Bay .....but very nice.

[winner69]

Got my little christmas pressie of OCA shares just now ... apologies for pushing the price down to 99c :P

C’mon hogie .....you should have bought a big Christmas pressie ....like heaps of OCA shares and pushed the price up in the process.

[Food4Thought]

Yeap, nice sweet 50% gain coming in 2018 as the tidal wave of old folks needing care steps up another gear..

My conservative estimate is $1.25 in the second week of February. By Friday 21 December of 2018, I hope this would appreciate to $1.55.

If there is a dividend which is already as good as any interest rate in a New Zealand bank and a low buy in price with potential and a good brand I think there can surely be another winner out of OCA.

I like what I read about this company, they seem down to earth. I see the OCA model as working wonders going into the future.

Good buying at around $1.00, 10 cents either side and I think long term you will still have yourself a bargain. My SUM return is currently above 70%, not including dividends etc and I feel there is plenty of room to move there. I see OCA easily performing the same.

Merry festivities to you all - stay safe on the roads

[huxley]

We'll we're back over $1.00, lets see if it lasts this time round :)

[JoeGrogan]

Is it speculation that OCA will be declaring a dividend on results date or is there a mention of this somewhere by the company?

[huxley]

Is it speculation that OCA will be declaring a dividend on results date or is there a mention of this somewhere by the company?

From the annual report:
“Oceania Healthcare has established a dividend policy with a targeted pay out ratio of 50% to 60% of annual underlying NPAT. We intend to commence paying dividends during the 2018 nancial year, with an initial interim dividend expected to be paid in February 2018.”

[trader_jackson]

Is it speculation that OCA will be declaring a dividend on results date or is there a mention of this somewhere by the company?

Mr Market probably just forgot about it (a good dividend - when the share price was in the 90's) then woke up recently at the prospect of an announcement this month of potentially strong first half results (and corresponding strong first half dividend).

[JoeGrogan]

From the annual report:
“Oceania Healthcare has established a dividend policy with a targeted pay out ratio of 50% to 60% of annual underlying NPAT. We intend to commence paying dividends during the 2018 nancial year, with an initial interim dividend expected to be paid in February 2018.”

Thanks kind sir

[Food4Thought]

I am getting enthusiastic for the up and coming results... wasn't there a date of 25 January with info?...

[777]

I am getting enthusiastic for the up and coming results... wasn't there a date of 25 January with info?...

You can always look up the announcements made by the company.

[Joshuatree]

Yes i find it weird how many dont go the source for info ,the NZX.
Notice of Half Year Result Announcement (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/311720/271508.pdf)

[couta1]

I am getting enthusiastic for the up and coming results... wasn't there a date of 25 January with info?... Looking forward to the result, expecting good things, I now rate OCA as having the most potential in the sector for SP appreciation over the next few years.

[trader_jackson]

Some say prior to half year results in 16 ish days, this is the last time OCA will be under the $1.10 mark ;)
If it was valued like another care-heavy-but-still-developer retirement stock, Ryman, it would be something like $1.50

[tim23]

How many cents dividend are you picking?

[King1212]

How many cents dividend are you picking?

At least 3 cents a share...

[pierre]

At least 3 cents a share...

Yep - that's what I'm picking too. I note the move northwards is progressing further today - SP now 107. Right now, there are buyers wanting 70,000+ shares chasing just over 2000 on offer at that price.

Edit: Those 2000 odd have gone - next on offer at 108.

Might even hit TJ's $1.10 in the next day or three.

DISCL - Holding and not selling

[winner69]

Some say prior to half year results in 16 ish days, this is the last time OCA will be under the $1.10 mark ;)
If it was valued like another care-heavy-but-still-developer retirement stock, Ryman, it would be something like $1.50

No, no t_j

On forward underlying earnings basis if OCA was valued like Ryman it would be about $2.45

Cool eh


you probably got confused with that dog SUM ..i’ll forgive you

[Food4Thought]

You can always look up the announcements made by the company.

Thanks 777 and Joshuatree. Good day for OCA anyway. Many positives.

[Fatboyj]

3c a divi will be good start.

I bought into this because I liked the ad. Cats are cute. And at that time a few directors were buying up big I think back in Sept/Oct. And all the positive posts in this thread. Noob investor criteria is paying off nicely for this stock.

[trader_jackson]

How many cents dividend are you picking?

I'd be happy with 2.0c at the half year and the rest invested in developments. I think forecasts were initially 4.5c for this coming year.

[dabsman]

I was assuming 4cps for the year so approx 2c this coming payment. Happy to be wrong on the upside

[Ggcc]

http://www.4-traders.com/OCEANIA-HEALTHCARE-LTD-34790010/financials/

Roughly 4cents per share is what is mentioned here

[winner69]

No, no t_j

On forward underlying earnings basis if OCA was valued like Ryman it would be about $2.45

Cool eh


you probably got confused with that dog SUM ..i’ll forgive you

On a foreward underlying earnings basis SUM and OCA are similarly valued ......but RYM still has that huge premium attached to it

If OCA priced at RYM multiples shareprice be $2.49 (SUM would be $11.95)

Maybe current prices are about right for OCA and SUM (and only RYM the odd one out)

My numbers below

Different balance dates make such a comparison a bit difficult - RYM and OCA are mid year but I have used a Dec 18 forecast for SUM.

[Beagle]

RYM the Rolls Royce of the sector and priced like that too. Nothing ever goes wrong with Rolls Royce engines right ? ;)
Just giving a heads-up, I'm probably pulling my underlying 2018 forecast for SUM back to ~ $90-95m, (from an initial preliminary $100m) after my discussion with the CFO the other day, (need to work on my model a bit more) but its still cheap and if OCA can beat their forecast and demonstrate a clear pipeline to future profit growth they are also very cheap, perhaps even cheaper than SUM but then again SUM have a six year history and OCA need to build market trust and credibility over time.
Over the next few years we could see a significant PE rerating of both SUM and OCA whereas surely RYM has run its race for now ?

[JoeGrogan]

On a foreward underlying earnings basis SUM and OCA are similarly valued ......but RYM still has that huge premium attached to it

If OCA priced at RYM multiples shareprice be $2.49 (SUM would be $11.95)

Maybe current prices are about right for OCA and SUM (and only RYM the odd one out)

My numbers below

Different balance dates make such a comparison a bit difficult - RYM and OCA are mid year but I have used a Dec 18 forecast for SUM.


Funny thing is that before SUM first hit 50mil in underlying profit it was already valued at over a billion dollars. But i guess SUM had a lot more assets at the time and more growth prospects...

[kiwico]

RYM the Rolls Royce of the sector and priced like that too. Nothing ever goes wrong with Rolls Royce engines right ?

Just to be a tad pedantic, one Rolls Royce is completely different from the other. The Rolls Royce standard would refer to the cars, now owned by VW although BMW has the brand (rumour had it BMW thought they were buying the RR car company which was bought from underneath them by VW). Rolls Royce Holdings plc makes the aforementioned aero engines that are undergoing a bit of bother at the moment.

Other than that thanks for the heads up.

[dabsman]

Over the next few years we could see a significant PE rerating of both SUM and OCA whereas surely RYM has run its race for now ?

I think RYM is only just starting. Dabbled its toes in Aussie (and only one region of Aussie) and things are going well. The ability to add more villages there is not tied up by bs council requirements and land restrictions we have here. Also there is much cheaper build cost and labour isnt the issue we have here. I think its still running and and getting into its stride...

[couta1]

I think RYM is only just starting. Dabbled its toes in Aussie (and only one region of Aussie) and things are going well. The ability to add more villages there is not tied up by bs council requirements and land restrictions we have here. Also there is much cheaper build cost and labour isnt the issue we have here. I think its still running and and getting into its stride... It never pays to underestimate Ryman, after all they are in the top 10 Healthcare companies worldwide and overseas players know that.

[Beagle]

I think RYM is only just starting. Dabbled its toes in Aussie (and only one region of Aussie) and things are going well. The ability to add more villages there is not tied up by bs council requirements and land restrictions we have here. Also there is much cheaper build cost and labour isnt the issue we have here. I think its still running and and getting into its stride...

Fair comment but SUM other retirement companies are looking at Australian expansion too :) RYM at $11.30 are on a 2018 underlying PE of 28.25.
Getting a bit ahead of itself ?, you folks be the Judge.

[777]

Sold out this morning. Well ahead of itself.

[couta1]

Fair comment but SUM other retirement companies are looking at Australian expansion too :) RYM at $11.30 are on a 2018 underlying PE of 28.25.
Getting a bit ahead of itself ?, you folks be the Judge. I was starting to get worried the way RYM was running that I was going to have to adjust my ratio % for SUMs value compared to RYM down to 45% from 50% mate, hope reversion below the mean isn't going to become the new normal.

[trader_jackson]

Sold out this morning. Well ahead of itself.

If you think OCA has gotten ahead of itself, you think ryman is on another planet?
Sum listed retirement village stocks even go up producing results below expectations

[couta1]

If you think OCA has gotten ahead of itself, you think ryman is on another planet?
Sum listed retirement village stocks even go up producing results below expectations I think you will find he is referring to selling RYM.

[Beagle]

I was starting to get worried the way RYM was running that I was going to have to adjust my ratio % for SUMs value compared to RYM down to 45% from 50% mate, hope reversion below the mean isn't going to become the new normal.

I knew that post was coming lol.

[winner69]

I was starting to get worried the way RYM was running that I was going to have to adjust my ratio % for SUMs value compared to RYM down to 45% from 50% mate, hope reversion below the mean isn't going to become the new normal.

Be good if OCA did a 1 for 5 ——- we could then have a 1 SUM = 1 OCA and both 50% of RYM as a guideline.

Taking RYM out of the discussion I reckon the market is saying both OCA and SUM are both valued about right at the moment.

That’s assuming OCA full earnings $54m

[trader_jackson]

I think you will find he is referring to selling RYM.

Ah yes - good, makes sense now.

[777]

If you think OCA has gotten ahead of itself, you think ryman is on another planet?
Sum listed retirement village stocks even go up producing results below expectations

Whoops wrong thread. It was RYM I sold out of. Note to self "remember where you are".

[Lawstudent05]

any indication of the DIV being able to be reinvested?