OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Baa_Baa]

I should have made myself clearer-I meant selling before we die-eg to buy the best OCA unit should we need .
Should you die holding shares then your estate will sell the shares .
So the shares are eventually traded in someway -making a trading loss or gain

Your estate is not obliged at all, to sell your shares, they could be distributed to the beneficiaries. Or sold. If they do that It will be taxed like a pseudo death duty.

You’re dancing around this, moving the subject from yourself and your decisions, to beneficiaries but either way the intent is clear in law, either you have no intent to sell ever, ergo enjoy the capital gains and the taxable income, or you do not. It’s not grey, it’s black and white.

Test it if you don’t believe me. Take your position to the IRD and ask ‘did I read this correctly’, yeah right!

Some say don’t fight the Fed. I say sure, but don’t fight the IRD either. They have an extraordinarily long memory. Squeaky clean with no ambiguity makes it easier to sleep at night. Get a big five accountant to help sort out what Is taxable and what isn’t. Selling to buy a shed, well let’s see how that stands up to scrutiny.

Likewise all you other ‘investors’ who on a whim decide to reap your capital gains. The IRD can make life miserable and even more so for those who are later in life and cut a few corners along the way.

Bless

[couta1]

Sleep tight all, no doubt a few grumpy off topic puritans will be out soon to bring things back on track. PS-Sorry Baa Baa but I must strongly disagree with you about it not being grey, it is in fact very grey currently, black and white would be a brightline test or a CGT.

[Snow Leopard]

I feel MET SOA already factored into the price
Sold some today to buy a big shed....

Is this your first shed or a subsequent one?

Do you see it as an investment property, i.e. a shed that you will spend much time sitting in?
or more property, plant & equipment, as in a shed for keeping plants and mowers in?

if you need to build a path to the shed do you intend to classify the path in the same category as the shed itself, either partially or fully?

Under no circumstance let the IRD into your shed :t_down: .

[bull....]

generally i fing baa baa strategy of hold for ever not very good why

does baa baa know what the companies going to perform like in the next 5 yrs let alone 10 and is he/she just going to ignore new information that rolls in on the company no matter what. sounds like buy and hope when you blindly put a stock in the bottom draw.

simply buying again if the price dips big again is not a fool proof strategy as in the point above you do not know what the future will be.

I like fish strategy sell a bit of the profits and buy something you can enjoy and then let the rest run if you like. if it crashes again at least you have a nice shed to remind you of your good fortune.

[winner69]

With all the MET money coming share price over $1.50 by weekend ..and even higher next week.

Broker analysts will need to revise just to keep up ...and that’ll help as well.

[fish]

generally i fing baa baa strategy of hold for ever not very good why

does baa baa know what the companies going to perform like in the next 5 yrs let alone 10 and is he/she just going to ignore new information that rolls in on the company no matter what. sounds like buy and hope when you blindly put a stock in the bottom draw.

simply buying again if the price dips big again is not a fool proof strategy as in the point above you do not know what the future will be.

I like fish strategy sell a bit of the profits and buy something you can enjoy and then let the rest run if you like. if it crashes again at least you have a nice shed to remind you of your good fortune.

Yes I was enjoying what I was doing.
Now I have been brought to Earth and reminded that my main intention of Holding long-term could be challenged by the IRD if I sell .
I promise I have no intention of selling OCA and will hold for the Dividend income .

[oldtech]

... but either way the intent is clear in law, either you have no intent to sell ever, ergo enjoy the capital gains and the taxable income, or you do not.

This may be a daft question, but if you "have no intent to sell ever" then how can you enjoy the capital gains?

[bull....]

Yes I was enjoying what I was doing.
Now I have been brought to Earth and reminded that my main intention of Holding long-term could be challenged by the IRD if I sell .
I promise I have no intention of selling OCA and will hold for the Dividend income .

but what if the dividends dont come ? you or i dont know what the future holds and cannot say with a 100% gaurantee that dividends will always be paid.

[Gunner]

but what if the dividends dont come ? you or i dont know what the future holds and cannot say with a 100% gaurantee that dividends will always be paid.

Nothing is guaranteed Bull

[Waltzing]

yes back to this OCA stock. Some here think the MET money will move the market by next week? These good new zealanders have a much better appreciation if the property market than we will ever have.

Do these Antipodean property experts really think the local will just redirect that money to retirement properties?

What about other property stocks like ARV, ARG, KPG (prehaps undervalued for a the next year), other sectors HLG, ATM, PLX, the freights have long sailed along with FPH.

Some may even go to retail KMD and beaten down SKC.

surely the advisors will want the money sprinkled into the market, some to the ASX and some to ETF.

You experts may say retirement money will simple be sent back into retirement Stock? And its a no brainer re Winners comments and that person is often not wrong.

[peat]

So a nothing day re price action huh, I wouldn't rule out the possibility of further falls but clearly there is some resilience to the price at these levels as opposed to 1.48


12029

it will be interesting today with the US500 down nearly 1%, I'm picking confirmation will come today....

y'day didnt convince one way OR the other....

price is more important than time.


Discl (still holding) but do now have a sell order above y'days price range. (which I'm not expecting to be hit tbh )

[Gunner]

Up to $1.50 by end of the week.

[King1212]

It is you peat at $1.52 102 shares at sell? Lol

[winner69]

12029

it will be interesting today with the US500 down nearly 1%, I'm picking confirmation will come today....

y'day didnt convince one way OR the other....

price is more important than time.


Discl (still holding) but do now have a sell order above y'days price range. (which I'm not expecting to be hit tbh )

Price more important than time ...love it

Hope price at 12.15pm is more than it is at 10.30am

[King1212]

Waltz..... normally the money from fundies will go back to the same sector once they sold out Met.

[peat]

Price more important than time ...love it



I take that as sarcasm and insulting so **** you. if its not then clarify.

[winner69]

Waltz..... normally the money from fundies will go back to the same sector once they sold out Met.

Really?

They’ve had months to sort this out and I’d say most have already ‘repositioned’ themselves already ..done and dusted as they say

[winner69]

I take that as sarcasm and insulting so **** you. if its not then clarify.

Sorry ..obviously misinterpreted what you were getting at ..my bad if so

[peat]

Really?

They’ve had months to sort this out and I’d say most have already ‘repositioned’ themselves already ..done and dusted as they say

do you think they would committ funds without having absolute assurance that the other position is closed though. could end up with massive egg on face and overexposed to the sector.

isnt that what happend with the early takeover - people banking on it, and major egg.

[peat]

Sorry ..obviously misinterpreted what you were getting at ..my bad if so

not sure how it could be misinterpreted but ok.

For technical analysis - which relies on price action - but also utilises the passing of time (eg a DAILY candle or a 76.8% fib retracement) the price movement is more important than the time passing. hope that is clearer and you can be less disparaging about it

[Waltzing]

surely the market is going to do what the markets going to do and everything that is recorded from that is just an historical classification.

[peat]

surely the market is going to do what the markets going to do and everything that is recorded from that is just an historical classification.

i thought you used 'runtime dynamic accounting models'

it would be interesting to know what that actually means coz I have no idea, and I would expect to given I'm qualified and experienced. so if that statement is meaningless to me I would guess it is to a lot of other people as well. Given you have a lot to say sometimes it would be interesting for you to elaborate on what they are and how they work . Also it may contribute something useful to others.... start another thread maybe.

[Beagle]

do you think they would committ funds without having absolute assurance that the other position is closed though. could end up with massive egg on face and overexposed to the sector.

isnt that what happend with the early takeover - people banking on it, and major egg.

I think that's right. The takeover was never a done deal until it is and with the objector removing their objection yesterday, OIO approval and takeover panel approval, the High Court approval this morning for the MET scheme of implementation agreement should effectively become a simple rubber stamping exercise.

Institutions are unlikely to have committed resources to other stocks in this sector (and other sectors), until at earliest confirmation the takeover is confirmed or until they have the financial proceeds through which I understand is scheduled for 3 November.

[Waltzing]

MR M may well uses runtime models for OCA. Most people here use them with data taken from FA. You wont be familiar with the term if your not the snow cat who seems to know his runtime from his binary compiled.

Runtime refers to software that is macro or runtime driven such as models in say excel with has a runtime engine as apposed to a binary optimizing compiler.

In that regard MR M appears to have although no one has seen it a comprehensive model based on published information from the published company accounts and forward projections.

MR M models may well be runtime if produced in a non compiled software data format with runtime formulas.

Those models are the ones people would love to see a presentation on i for one would pay to see a professional presentation of OCA. An independent presentation not one from the company at an AGM.

Another person who is a qualified professional here is MR B who is a registered ACA Accountant i am assuming. His computation models would also be of great interest on OCA.

data models projecting EPS are the what the market is really interested i think.

DISC: private investor in tech developments relating to runtime language software engines.

[peat]

so its a spreadsheet? do you have to hit F9 ? or is that the dynamic part.

I must admit it sounded a bit fancier than that.

[Waltzing]

your electronic calculator is dynamic...

but what im getting at here is that MR M has done the hard yards prehap with both his feet (visiting sites), his brain , putting all that information gathered from many sources into a dynamic model and i think here in NZ it termed doing the MAHI? apologies to the locals if that is the wrong term.

Going forward investor sentiment and i know we have been drawn back to this stock based on his contributions making us look at this stock again after selling out.

His model may well be dynamic. The data stored in one format that is changeable and inter changeable in an XML format to be reused in various forms by assorted software services. Yes MS Excel or google docs use such formats. One hopes he has used a model like this.

[peat]

my beef is Waltzing whatever (your nick doesnt make sense , does it have a spelling error in it? ) that your esoteric black box spreadsheets dont actually help anyone here make sense of anything and yet you had the gall to criticise my reference to centuries old trading methodologies. just saying .... and of course its a free world so do what ever you want - post what ever you want - but it does get to me how people criticise/ridicule methods they dont understand but are never explicit enough with their methods to be constructively critiqued.

so in other words , and I use this expression light heartedly (hope you can see this) 'put up or shut up'

[Snow Leopard]

This thread is becoming surreal, I love it.

I would put a picture of a Snow Leopard sitting on a golden beach eating popcorn by the bucketful whilst reading the OCA thread but the google search function has let me down.

Some people need to go find their own beach without internet for a few days.
Back soon.

[couta1]

This thread is becoming surreal, I love it.

I would put a picture of a Snow Leopard sitting on a golden beach eating popcorn by the bucketful whilst reading the OCA thread but the google search function has let me down.

Some people need to go find their own beach without internet for a few days.
Back soon. Sometimes off topic is so much more interesting/educational and enjoyable, I mean who really cares that OCA holders are going to double their money over the next 2-3 yrs.

[peat]

Some people need to go find their own beach without internet for a few days.


True dat
I know, I've had too much coffee and experiencing a lot of stress so am over-reacting somewhat.

There was another big forum I used to hang out on in the first decade of this century (music and party related - so lots of crazy mf's) that became a bit like reddit with massive trolling and wind ups - so I've seen a lot in the past - here , today isnt really anything that outlandish :D but enjoy the popcorn.

Disclaimer sold a third now

[King1212]

Don't worry peat...does not mean u sold out ..then SP will collapse....the force is strong...heading to $1.50 soon

[mike2020]

Waltzingironmansinlgescul (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/member.php?18059-Waltzingironmansinlgescul)


Waltzing Ironman Single scul sounds like a fit dancer to me.

[peat]

Don't worry peat...does not mean u sold out ..then SP will collapse....the force is strong...heading to $1.50 soon

Not worried King
yes it does mean I sold out a third.
The shooting star could mean that prices have peaked for a while. given it was a daily candle maybe a few weeks before we get a new high - it doesnt necessarily mean collapse.
there are a lot of 'market' factors in the scene at this point , tho not much new specific to this stock for a while, so it could easily drift or move in tandem with general market now.


Waltzingironmansinlgescul (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/member.php?18059-Waltzingironmansinlgescul)


Waltzing Ironman Single scul sounds like a fit dancer to me.

but it doesnt even say that. pretty sure I'm not dyslexic.

[Beagle]

Sometimes off topic is so much more interesting/educational and enjoyable, I mean who really cares that OCA holders are going to double their money over the next 2-3 yrs.

LOL that's a classic post. Oh my goodness we needed that humour in this thread today. Come on guys, please be kind to each other.

Lets get back to OCA and a super important question. Do they allow you to have a small dog in your independent living apartment ?

[Waltzing]

if this stock does double its money we are going to have to send a broker commission to MR B and Mr M.

Humbled by there workings.

prehaps when it does mr M will have fancied up his model and he will present some graphs or something to show off.

mike 20 20 ....:D :t_up: perfect translation. The last bit i ran out of letters for but your vision is in deed 20/20 , im sure you will get the last remaining missing letters.

plenty of time here in the antipodes to get ready for the Baltic in 2022 .. smooth coastal water on a calm day to Roddklubb with the sweds .

[Beagle]

Thanks for your kind words mate.
MET final approval granted by the High Court. Funds to be paid to shareholders on 3/11/20. https://www.nzx.com/announcements/361771

[Waltzing]

Order in for a few more, a week or 2 left then.

mike 20 20 ... perfect translation. The last bit i ran out of letters for but your vision is in deed 20/20 , im sure you will get the last remaining missing letters.

3 letters missing beginning with the letter l.

the irish have some sayings but ill leave those for buying the Guinness for i shall be run off the forums soon :eek2:.

[Maverick]

Which one are the analysts the most keen on ;)

That is a really good point ...it was so short that I missed its value first time around.

Easy to imagine Mr and Mrs Old in front of Mr Suit..."What should we do with this money now sir?"
(Beagles post referring to where the MET $ might be funneled into.)

[Leftfield]

[QUOTE=Maverick;851391
(Beagles post referring to where the MET $ might be funneled into.)[/QUOTE]

$20 mill into PEB yesterday (just saying)

[Beagle]

That is a really good point ...it was so short that I missed its value first time around.

Easy to imagine Mr and Mrs Old in front of Mr Suit..."What should we do with this money now sir?"
(Beagles post referring to where the MET $ might be funneled into.)

Yeah its easy to forget that the vast majority of investors do not read or participate in this forum. Vast numbers of investors and especially institutions rely on analyst recommendations. I am sure others won't mind me making a small observation that the top gun team have been "just a little" ahead of the pack ;)

[Waltzing]

we are hoping that they only slowly start to get the big picture if that picture has been correctly estimated. Good FA models are the real value tool here and im sorry to say we dont have one on this stock yet. We are simply to busy with other stuff. Slowly because the TOP GUN TEAM are correct we need a few more and orders are in.

[peat]

depth now heavily overweight in sellers. twice as many in a +/- 10c range with 1M sellers between here and the recent high.

[mike2020]

depth now heavily overweight in sellers. twice as many in a +/- 10c range with 1M sellers between here and the recent high.

Looking at average volume there are plenty of days over 1ml and quite a few over 2. That list of sellers could be gone in 5 minutes any given day.

[peat]

but today ​ there arent a million buyers .... ;+)

[mike2020]

but today ​ there arent a million buyers .... ;+)

The day is not over so you can't call it yet :-P

[Waltzing]

OCA sells off go for up to 6 months at a time usually about 12 cents on average. then moves up. sure there will be some profit takers on this last run up, usually we are one of them but not this time.

vaccines in 8 weeks if emergency granted in december.

todays vol, GMT a million share in total , OCA only 500,000 odd

[stoploss]

OCA sells off go for up to 6 months at a time usually about 12 cents on average. then moves up. sure there will be some profit takers on this last run up, usually we are one of them but not this time.

vaccines in 8 weeks if emergency granted in december.

todays vol, GMT a million share in total , OCA only 500,000 odd

12 cents , how did they get down to 35 cents from $ 1.20 ish ... ?

[Waltzing]

"12 cents on average"

average , not accurately at a glance chart view, yes there was the move down from 1.20 to under 1 dollar.

somewhere around oct 18

there appears to have been only 3 small sell downs not including the Global pandemic

we think the oct sell off was the only major one. anything less then 25% not worth noticing unless of course you have a very over weight position.

i suppose its a matter of your risk. Some people may consider 10-15% a large sell off, we dont. Its really your personal risk and 10-15% may be consider a large move for some investors.

[Leftfield]

..........we think the oct sell off was the only major one. anything less then 25% not worth noticing unless of course you have a very over weight position.

i suppose its a matter of your risk. Some people may consider 10-15% a large sell off, we don't....

Why do you refer to yourself as 'we'....... (just wondering)

[Bjauck]

Why do you refer to yourself as 'we'....... (just wondering) A member of Royalty?

[arekaywhy]

Why do you refer to yourself as 'we'....... (just wondering)


multiple personalities?

[peat]

it because there are multiple worksheets in the dynamic runtime accounting model.

[couta1]

Why do you refer to yourself as 'we'....... (just wondering) Broking company employee or director?

[macduffy]

Broking company employee or director?

That could be it, couta! And employing that obscure grammar and vocabulary that brokers use to confuse us!

;)

[Baa_Baa]

it because there are multiple worksheets in the dynamic runtime accounting model.

stop it you're making me hurt from too much laughing ... rotfl :eek2:

[Beagle]

Come on guys...lets try and be a bit kinder to each other. I believe our friend is a Trustee. A director or trustee will often use the word "we" when expressing an opinion on behalf of other directors or trustees.

[peat]

Beagle good on ya for stickin up for our multiple single sculler.

Hey Waltzing, I certainly do not want to discourage you from posting , even if I'm jibing you.

OCA still struggling with too much topside. Time is passing, the signal weakens I guess, but still lurks imo.

[Leftfield]

it because there are multiple worksheets in the dynamic runtime accounting model.

lol - Definition of a share market investor - 'A person who makes precision guesswork based on unreliable data.'
:sleep:

[bull....]

looks like good timing moving funds out of oca to kpg. oca stalling

[Leftfield]

looks like good timing moving funds out of oca to kpg. oca stalling

Traders will trade. Holders will hold. Wake me up in 5 years time.

[bull....]

Traders will trade. Holders will hold. Wake me up in 5 years time.

your not another one who throws them in the bottom draw an d forgets them are you. you might miss the bubble bursting

[Leftfield]

your not another one who throws them in the bottom draw an d forgets them are you. you might miss the bubble bursting

No need to worry Bull..... all my shares are very much 'top drawer' ;)

[Beagle]

Traders will trade. Holders will hold. Wake me up in 5 years time.

Hear hear !! Will they be 3, 4 or $5 something by then :)

[Waltzing]

Mr B your just incorrigible!

5 dollars in 5 Year? i can barely comprehend the resulting euphoria in the clouded isles..

Is this a prediction from the TOP TEAM prehaps?

[Beagle]

Compounding tax free annual growth is a beautiful thing my friend. Now we're past the point of inflection with their business model we will see years of it in my opinion.
How could this play out and surely there is no precedent for such extraordinary growth in this sector you might ask ?
SUM listed in November 2011 at $1.30 and because of its business model started growing immediately. Less than 5 years later in August 2016 it was $5.50.

Couldn't happen to OCA, surely not ?...or could it ;)

With investing one must try and have a vision for what is possible in 5-10 years time. Warren Buffet is famous for thinking 10 years or more down the track and investing now for his vision of the future.

[Waltzing]

I think a comprehensive investment document on OCA could almost be sold to investors by the Top Gun Retirement Investment Team.

I would like to send in money for this investing brochure in the retirement sector forthwith.. where do we send our money to pre order this booklet!

[couta1]

Compounding tax free annual growth is a beautiful thing my friend. Now we're past the point of inflection with their business model we will see years of it in my opinion.
How could this play out and surely there is no precedent for such extraordinary growth in this sector you might ask ?
SUM listed in November 2011 at $1.30 and because of its business model started growing immediately. Less than 5 years later in August 2016 it was $5.50.

Couldn't happen to OCA, surely not ?...or could it ;)

With investing one must try and have a vision for what is possible in 5-10 years time. Warren Buffet is famous for thinking 10 years or more down the track and investing now for his vision of the future. Well those that bought A2 and XRO early on have been well rewarded with that vision while those that bought APT a year ago and held have just retired early but most would be too young to move into an OCA unit.

[dreamcatcher]

Well those that bought A2 and XRO early on have been well rewarded with that vision while those that bought APT a year ago and held have just retired early but most would be too young to move into an OCA unit.

Interesting you mentioning APT as was just reading UBS report SELL 12months PT A$28.25 well shy of current price and wondering if they will SHORT like everything else they touch??

[couta1]

Interesting you mentioning APT as was just reading UBS report SELL 12months PT A$28.25 well shy of current price and wondering if they will SHORT like everything else they touch?? You would think so although APT has just over 1% shorts and doesn't make the top 100 most shorted on the ASX, meanwhile A2 is in 13th place currently. I personally wouldn't touch APT with a barge pole because I don't have that vision for it Beagle mentioned, a complete contrast to OCA but you can sleep soundly with this one.

[Baa_Baa]

You would think so although APT has just over 1% shorts and doesn't make the top 100 most shorted on the ASX, meanwhile A2 is in 13th place currently. I personally wouldn't touch APT with a barge pole because I don't have that vision for it Beagle mentioned, a complete contrast to OCA but you can sleep soundly with this one.

Have you gone large on OCA? It’s encouraging that you’re in the sector and endorse the company. I’m so over weight it’s obese, but cest la vie, as you often point out. Etc etc

[couta1]

Have you gone large on OCA? It’s encouraging that you’re in the sector and endorse the company. I’m so over weight it’s obese, but cest la vie, as you often point out. Etc etc No where near as large as I was a couple of yrs ago but would be more than happy to go large again if my money wasnt currently submerged in milk literally. You'll do well here Baa Baa and you can feel good about the high quality level of care the OCA residents receive to boot, cant see RYM or SUM doubling in value from here in anywhere near the time that OCA will.

[winner69]

Been a lot said comparing Oceania’s and Summerset’s CEOs

A great CEO has to be both an angel and a monster ...at the same time. Apparently a rare quality

Maybe that’s the reason SUM valued / rated much more highly by the market.

Something I learnt in a Franz Joseph pub last night

[couta1]

Been a lot said comparing Oceania’s and Summerset’s CEOs

A great CEO has to be both an angel and a monster ...at the same time. Apparently a rare quality

Maybe that’s the reason SUM valued / rated much more highly by the market.

Something I learnt in a Franz Joseph pub last night Ex RYM CEO Simon Challies was the gold standard, the rest are but followers, Earl is a good man and Cook certainly ain't no angel by any stretch of the imagination.

[Bjauck]

Been a lot said comparing Oceania’s and Summerset’s CEOs

A great CEO has to be both an angel and a monster ...at the same time. Apparently a rare quality

Maybe that’s the reason SUM valued / rated much more highly by the market.

Something I learnt in a Franz Joseph pub last night Jekyll and Hyde? How many drinks had been served at that stage ;)

[WAIKEN]

I agree with Beagle that 5.00 is attainable but I think it will come within 5 years in an ultra low interest environment ( Future bond issues sub 2.0% ) and extraordinary population growth pressure and property as an increasingly popular asset class.
Compared to SUM
MCap 0.86 Bill vs 2.22 Bill
Div Y under half of OCAs already reduced div
SUM at plus 112% of NTA OCA plus 45% of NTA
Sometimes value is hidden in plain sight by subjective and historical preferences.

[bull....]

$5 lol why not $10 haha wish someone would validate this with a free cashflow model otherwise its just blowing hot air

[winner69]

I agree with Beagle that 5.00 is attainable but I think it will come within 5 years in an ultra low interest environment ( Future bond issues sub 2.0% ) and extraordinary population growth pressure and property as an increasingly popular asset class.
Compared to SUM
MCap 0.86 Bill vs 2.22 Bill
Div Y under half of OCAs already reduced div
SUM at plus 112% of NTA OCA plus 45% of NTA
Sometimes value is hidden in plain sight by subjective and historical preferences.

Good logic / theory there Waiken but two points -

But in this world things weren’t created equal (there always has been and always will be ‘perceived’ unreasonable relativities)

And what’s going to change the long entrenched market preference for large cap growth operators (why RYM and SUM trade at higher valuation multiples than ARV and our beloved OCA)

[Beagle]

Trust and respect of the investment community is never "given" its always "earned". Once the market starts to see clear evidence their business model is working the rerating proper, will start. The first hard evidence will be this half's result announced in late January 2021.

[Baa_Baa]

SUM has been good to me, but at over 70% CRT to RYM it's well outside previous high ratios and due for a retrace. So I'm out of SUM and recycled all of it into OCA which I think will do better (multiples) in the years to come.

[Captain]

Expecting a little bit of market volatility in the US until the election which will trickle down into the NZ market. After it stabilises a bit, going to jump in and join the party :t_up:

[winner69]

SUM has been good to me, but at over 70% CRT to RYM it's well outside previous high ratios and due for a retrace. So I'm out of SUM and recycled all of it into OCA which I think will do better (multiples) in the years to come.

Ryman reporting next month ...should make that gap to SUM more respectable

Hope RTM result a stunner with the share price going up heaps to reflect that ...hopefully will pull OCA up with it ...OCA needs all the help it can get from its mates as struggles on its own eh.

[Gunner]

your not another one who throws them in the bottom draw an d forgets them are you. you might miss the bubble bursting

Bull, I wonder if your investing is as sloppy as your grammar 😋

[jimdog31]

Bull, I wonder if your investing is as sloppy as your grammar 

Ouch Gunner, for a fourth post thats very bullish :p

[Snow Leopard]

$5 lol why not $10 haha wish someone would validate this with a free cashflow model otherwise its just blowing hot air

They have free cash flow ?

DMF & other fees is eaten by operating expenses and the remains of the OCA is a loan by any other name.

I prefer to think of the money-go-round as a legal, interest free borrowing, ponzi scheme.

$5 will come, and then $10 will come, could be that one day $100 will come*.
But there is no rush.

Disc: Hold

*after EBOS

[Gunner]

Might as well bull out all the stops

[Baa_Baa]

They have free cash flow ?

DMF & other fees is eaten by operating expenses and the remains of the OCA is a loan by any other name.

I prefer to think of the money-go-round as a legal, interest free borrowing, ponzi scheme.

$5 will come, and then $10 will come, could be that one day $100 will come*.
But there is no rush.

Disc: Hold

*after EBOS

It’s a compelling business model, improved by a coherent differentiating strategy that OCA are executing nicely on. Hard to find anything else trading at such low ratio to NTA, Go large! Ok

[Beagle]

All $99.3m of beautiful operating cash flow up 11.25% on the year before.
It would appear our resident snow pussy didn't read the accounts after all lol
"Cash flow is the lifeblood of business, always has been and always will be" Beagle

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/OCEANIA-HEALTHCARE-LIMITE-103506268/consensus/

[jimdog31]

Might as well bull out all the stops

Start how u mean to finish. Onya mate :t_up:

[Snow Leopard]

All $99.3m of beautiful operating cash flow up 11.25% on the year before.
It would appear our resident snow pussy didn't read the accounts after all lol
"Cash flow is the lifeblood of business, always has been and always will be" Beagle

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/OCEANIA-HEALTHCARE-LIMITE-103506268/consensus/

I am continually baffled that someone who claims to be an accountant makes such a complete and utter dog's breakfast of understanding company accounts (among other things) on an incredibly regular basis.

I was talking free cash flow which is different to operating cash flow.
I have indeed read the accounts, but where we vary is that I do actually understand them, as opposed to claiming to understand them whilst at the same time proving otherwise.

So while I agree with you that OCA FY20 accounts do indeed show a positive operating cash flow of $99m367...
...I can also then deduct the necessary $106m231 from that on the first step of determining free cash flow.

Nice to see you quoting the old "cash flow is the lifeblood..." thing but putting you name after it is straight-forward plagiarism.

As for your link, you are often given to rubbishing analyst forecasts, (possibly on this thread recently), so that is no support for whatever it is you think you are proving by quoting it.

So I will continue to hold OCA on the belief that I will receive a modest but growing dividend accompanied by an erratic but growing share price until one day they are worth enough to buy a shed.

But till then, time to sleep:
12037

[flyinglizard]

12038

I have no further comment on the attached charts, have you say. I have not updated OCA debt ratio after new bond issued yet.

Price surge due to event driven (new bond issued) or fundamental improvement?

[winner69]

12038

I have no further comment on the attached charts, have you say. I have not updated OCA debt ratio after new bond issued yet.

Price surge due to event driven (new bond issued) or fundamental improvement?

All those profit ratios will fix themselves when they stop knocking things down (writing them off) and rebuilding as super cash cows

[Beagle]

So I will continue to hold OCA on the belief that I will receive a modest but growing dividend accompanied by an erratic but growing share price until one day they are worth enough to buy a shed.

No need to get your fur all matted up sour puss. Here's an idea just for a refreshing change. Seeing as you seem to claim to understand the accounts so well what about posting some truly insightful analysis rather than your usual pithy barbs.

[peat]

FCF = OCF - CAPEX
FCF = real money that can be given back to you as true profits.

there will certainly be a few nuaces around this tho...

[Beagle]

I think sour puss knows full well that they're investing heaps in capex for future growth.

[Waltzing]

other comprehensive income item in the P&L does not appear to have a note ?

ok schedule found thanks.

[Snow Leopard]

No need to get your fur all matted up sour puss. Here's an idea just for a refreshing change. Seeing as you seem to claim to understand the accounts so well what about posting some truly insightful analysis rather than your usual pithy barbs.

https://assets.amuniversal.com/accea340ba62013818b6005056a9545d
Todays Calvin & Hobbes (https://www.gocomics.com/calvinandhobbes/2020/10/24)

[Maverick]

After Beagles comment on where the brokers might redirect the MET money. I believe that his quick comment was prescient and worthy of further consideration.

$1.4B MET is showing up in peoples bank accounts on the 3 November, no doubt what so ever.
Where is that free capital likely to flow? It will almost certainly be highly influenced by the recommendations to Jo public and institutions by the brokers, these recommendations all being based on the analysts reports. I checked out 4 traders' summary of analysts opinions on all the NZ retirement operators as suitors.

In a scale of 1-10 (1 sell-10 buy)- Worth noting SUM and OCA have only recently been strongly upgraded, the RYM and ARV have remained unchanged for some time.
RYM 4
ARV 4
SUM10
OCA 10.

If $1.4B was all fully redeployed back into the sector on a pro-rata basis OCA would receive about 7.5% =$110m .
Obviously it won't all go back into the sector. However it would seem reasonable OCA and SUM will get more share than RYM or ARV of what is. You can actually already see the sway of the recent changing analysts opinion working through the SP charts on these 4 companies. Over the 2-3 weeks since the upgrades have shifted SUM and OCA up and RYM and ARV down. (all this without the influence of the impending wall of cash yet in play).

The new money heading to OCA will start flowing almost immediately upon arrival and then quickly over fairly short time frame. ( This is over a 1/3rd of the size of the massively disruptive MAQ sell down of $300m earlier this year) but this time around its buying pressure as opposed to selling/dumping pressure. All long term OCA holders here know full well how long the tails of both MAQ sell downs lingered over the share price.

One thing I've learnt the hard way this year is how powerful the supply/demand relationship is on a share price and how it absolutely trumps any company fundamentals. (think OCA at $0.38 cents.)

So, based on this, it would be reasonable to assume some sort of similar opposite an, this time, a positive effect of buying pressure that should easily last until the HY1 report comes out in late Jan 2021.

Now onto the fundamentals of OCA, ...It is well documented here that I am expecting a substantial profit rise in HY1, well ahead of the analysts forecasts.

So these 2 immediate events lined up amongst the frothy general NZ property situation is all getting rather exciting, simply;

Scenario 1. a wall of money likely to boost the OCA share price followed up by a (IMO) substantial profit upgrade. Share price therefore heads towards $2.00 early-mid 2021

Scenario 2. If I “crash and burn '' and OCA only produce profit as per the analysts lowly expectations. (BTW, I`m not doubting my math's but it would be foolish not to at least consider it.) Then the share price will settle back down to about where its is now at $1.40 after the new cash injection works through. Around the mid-point of both brokers recent upgrades.

Not very often a nice opportunity like this comes along with very little downside risk,
“ Heads you win , tails you at least get your money back.”

[Waltzing]

expect some of it to head into commercial property stocks. KPG experienced increased demand this last week. I would not be surprised to see GMT and ARG also increase in demand and perhaps the Generator stocks.

Dont expect much but you might see some head to the likes of SKC.

and ATM might get a look if it drops farther.

[winner69]

How much of MET owned by overseas entities .....and will they desert NZ

What’s that London based outfit Omni Partners been up taking 10% over the last few weeks?

Wouldn’t most of that ‘cash’ already found a home?

[Beagle]

After Beagles comment on where the brokers might redirect the MET money. I believe that his quick comment was prescient and worthy of further consideration.

$1.4B MET is showing up in peoples bank accounts on the 3 November, no doubt what so ever.
Where is that free capital likely to flow? It will almost certainly be highly influenced by the recommendations to Jo public and institutions by the brokers, these recommendations all being based on the analysts reports. I checked out 4 traders' summary of analysts opinions on all the NZ retirement operators as suitors.

In a scale of 1-10 (1 sell-10 buy)- Worth noting SUM and OCA have only recently been strongly upgraded, the RYM and ARV have remained unchanged for some time.
RYM 4
ARV 4
SUM10
OCA 10.

If $1.4B was all fully redeployed back into the sector on a pro-rata basis OCA would receive about 7.5% =$110m .
Obviously it won't all go back into the sector. However it would seem reasonable OCA and SUM will get more share than RYM or ARV of what is. You can actually already see the sway of the recent changing analysts opinion working through the SP charts on these 4 companies. Over the 2-3 weeks since the upgrades have shifted SUM and OCA up and RYM and ARV down. (all this without the influence of the impending wall of cash yet in play).

The new money heading to OCA will start flowing almost immediately upon arrival and then quickly over fairly short time frame. ( This is over a 1/3rd of the size of the massively disruptive MAQ sell down of $300m earlier this year) but this time around its buying pressure as opposed to selling/dumping pressure. All long term OCA holders here know full well how long the tails of both MAQ sell downs lingered over the share price.

One thing I've learnt the hard way this year is how powerful the supply/demand relationship is on a share price and how it absolutely trumps any company fundamentals. (think OCA at $0.38 cents.)

So, based on this, it would be reasonable to assume some sort of similar opposite an, this time, a positive effect of buying pressure that should easily last until the HY1 report comes out in late Jan 2021.

Now onto the fundamentals of OCA, ...It is well documented here that I am expecting a substantial profit rise in HY1 This should equate to about 50% greater than the 2 recent analyst reports expectations of about 49m annualized underlying profit ( similar to the last 4 years excluding covid costs ).

So these 2 immediate events lined up amongst the frothy general NZ property situation is all getting rather exciting, simply;

Scenario 1. a wall of money likely to boost the OCA share price followed up by a (IMO) substantial profit upgrade. Share price therefore heads towards $2.00 early-mid 2021

Scenario 2. If I “crash and burn '' and OCA only produce profit as per the analysts lowly expectations. (BTW, I`m not doubting my math's but it would be foolish not to at least consider it.) Then the share price will settle back down to about where its is now at $1.40 after the new cash injection works through. Around the mid-point of both brokers recent upgrades.

Not very often a nice opportunity like this comes along with very little downside risk,
“ Heads you win , tails you at least get your money back.”



Good post as always mate. I see profit climbing in the years ahead just like the brokers do but off a base of 10 cps for the 10 months, (annualized 12 cps) rather than the 8 cps that Forsyth Barr has with their $1.65 price target. The interesting thing is that if I am right then rejigging all other numbers in their DCF for a 50% higher starting point and using the same growth rate then the price target must be $1.65 x 1.5 = $2.475. I think this has $2 written all over it in 2021 but if its not until 2022 then so be it, what do I care, its a 5 year hold as an absolute minimum, more likely 10 years+.

In terms of how much MET money gets reallocated to OCA, absolutely some of it will head offshore to the hedge funds never to be seen again and most will head off to other stocks, probably with a property and retirement sector bias but you're quite right that some of it is likely to find its was to OCA which is at least a partial type of opposite effect that the Macquarie sell down had.

Demand and supply is such a massive factor and the property market sentiment is extremely favorable. As you quite rightly suggest the broker community just recently getting behind this stock will definitely have a positive effect...institutions and wealthy private and wealth management client investors listen to those guys not you and I.

I believe if I am not mistaken Friday's close at $1.40 was a fresh high in terms of closing price. I'm feeling very confident about OCA prospects going forward. I always said with this one I thought the half way transition / point of inflection would be a great time to invest and I think we're really going to get some deep satisfaction seeing OCA coming of age over the next few years.

I hope I can talk Mrs Beagle into putting some of her trust money into OCA. Big property settlement on Tuesday for her so maybe the Beagle's will be double dipping on OCA profits in the future....that would be very nice :cool: (She does her thing with property and I do my thing with shares and we just get on with it and very seldom compare notes...a lot less arguments that way too lol).

[winner69]

Always smile when Beagle and Snow Leopard 'discuss' cash flows

The contrasting views of Beagles "Cash flow is the lifeblood of business, always has been and always will be" to Snowies 'I was talking about FCF'.

Thought this chart could be interesting -- only shows OCA's cash burn since floating. Cash burn = FCF plus dividends. Funded by bank loans

So what can go wrong - just keep doing more bond issues and the odd request to share holders for a bit more

Suppose that's how the world operates these days so no worries (for a few more years or decades)

Note - included in that cash burn is $63m of dividends to shareholders

Was it Snowie who mentioned ponzi...hmmmm

[Beagle]

Was always a given they were investing heaps to transition the business. Debt is so cheap now he who borrows more at ~ 2% per annum and invests with real estate going up at ~ 16% per annum is doing extremely well... as demonstrated by SUM's share price lately too !

Quite apart from that I assume a lot of that growing debt Winner, is actually free loans from residents so free money when real estate is going gangbusters is even better. :t_up:

[winner69]

all quiet on the western front

at least share price not collapsing like others in this sector

awaiting the torrent of MET cash to come storming through next week week are we

[Snow Leopard]

all quiet on the western front

at least share price not collapsing like others in this sector

awaiting the torrent of MET cash to come storming through next week week are we

Shush & enjoy the serenity.

[Dotbond]

Need bull... to step in about this point and offer his view :)

[bull....]

Need bull... to step in about this point and offer his view :)

heres my view

no one on here has provided a proper valuation model of the company. if your going to do a proper valuation of the company you do not use operating cashflow to measure the health of a company as beagle has suggested , operating cashflow can be subtly massaged to provide a better picture than is in fact reality.
also you dont use FCF the correct measures to use are FCFF OR FCFE and taking into account the WACC to measure the levered free cash flow.

As for people saying there be a wave of money flowing from met to oca dont make me laugh. how would anyone know what people will do with there money its no more than ramping and wishful thinking from vested interests in the stock and the stock will most likely be affected by the state of the stock market than anything else. remember most stocks are valued highly because of a big bull market. oca could easliy be $2 or 50c dictated by the state of the markets more than anything else at the moment. take your pick

[Waltzing]

The market appears to be ignoring the FA and valuing the stock on housing Market value and that is close to being historic highs. With interest rates at all time lows housing is now according to the experts spiralling out of control.

[Gunner]

heres my view

no one on here has provided a proper valuation model of the company. if your going to do a proper valuation of the company you do not use operating cashflow to measure the health of a company as beagle has suggested , operating cashflow can be subtly massaged to provide a better picture than is in fact reality.
also you dont use FCF the correct measures to use are FCFF OR FCFE and taking into account the WACC to measure the levered free cash flow.

As for people saying there be a wave of money flowing from met to oca dont make me laugh. how would anyone know what people will do with there money its no more than ramping and wishful thinking from vested interests in the stock and the stock will most likely be affected by the state of the stock market than anything else. remember most stocks are valued highly because of a big bull market. oca could easliy be $2 or 50c dictated by the state of the markets more than anything else at the moment. take your pick

I think the money from MET, whilst not guaranteed to flow into other retirement stocks will receive a moderate share of these funds. A lot of money needs to find a home in the next week. Why is the grammar so bad?

[Beagle]

heres my view

no one on here has provided a proper valuation model of the company. if your going to do a proper valuation of the company you do not use operating cashflow to measure the health of a company as beagle has suggested , operating cashflow can be subtly massaged to provide a better picture than is in fact reality.
also you dont use FCF the correct measures to use are FCFF OR FCFE and taking into account the WACC to measure the levered free cash flow.

As for people saying there be a wave of money flowing from met to oca dont make me laugh. how would anyone know what people will do with there money its no more than ramping and wishful thinking from vested interests in the stock and the stock will most likely be affected by the state of the stock market than anything else. remember most stocks are valued highly because of a big bull market. oca could easliy be $2 or 50c dictated by the state of the markets more than anything else at the moment. take your pick

PM me your email address and I'll send you a professional analysts valuation at $1.65....just a "little" more than where you sold out :p

[bull....]

PM me your email address and I'll send you a professional analysts valuation at $1.65....just a "little" more than where you sold out :p

i dont need it , i am a professional lol

the price has stalled around where i sold out so my analysis is good... at this stage as with anything in life i retain the right to change my mind at any time

[Bjauck]

I think the money from MET, whilst not guaranteed to flow into other retirement stocks, will receive a moderate share of these funds. A lot of money needs to find a home in the next week. Why is the grammar so bad? If it does not flow back to the hedge funds. However there is still a lot of uncertainty. Europe and the US are in the middle of second waves which are on track to be worse than the first. So some proceeds may remain as cash pro tem too. Even Germany has been saying that its hospitals may not cope.

I learnt long ago to try not to be too critical of typos, spelling and gramma on forums. However, punctuation errors can slip in too;)
My emphasis in red.

[Gunner]

If it does not flow back to the hedge funds. However there is still a lot of uncertainty. Europe and the US are in the middle of second waves which are on track to be worse than the first. So some proceeds may remain as cash pro tem too. Even Germany has been saying that its hospitals may not cope.

I learnt long ago to try not to be too critical of typos, spelling and grammar on forums. However, punctuation errors can slip in too;)
My emphasis in red.

Yes, entering uncertain times with the increase in Covid overseas and the US elections. May be best to hold for now.

Indeed they can. My emphasis in red. I'm not the grammar police, this is an informal forum. It is more of an indication of someone's education or sloppiness. The number of them from certain people on here is telling in my view.

[bull....]

I think the money from MET, whilst not guaranteed to flow into other retirement stocks will receive a moderate share of these funds. A lot of money needs to find a home in the next week. Why is the grammar so bad?

if your been up most of the night your grammer might not be so good either. ps the market does not care if you have good grammer

[winner69]

Yes, entering uncertain times with the increase in Covid overseas and the US elections. May be best to hold for now.

Indeed they can. My emphasis in red. I'm not the grammar police, this is an informal forum. It is more of an indication of someone's education or sloppiness. The number of them from certain people on here is telling in my view.

Just as well we not using text lingo then eh ....that would confuse me big time

[Bjauck]

....The number of them from certain people on here is telling in my view. Rofl. Don't throw the babies out with the bathwater though...

[Beagle]

i dont need it , i am a professional lol

the price has stalled around where i sold out so my analysis is good... at this stage as with anything in life i retain the right to change my mind at any time

I think you may have missed your calling as a comedian lol

[Gunner]

if your been up most of the night your grammer might not be so good either. ps the market does not care if you have good grammer

One would assume a certain level of education when attempting to do clever valuations of stocks :-). I shall holster my guns now. Unique.

[bull....]

One would assume a certain level of education when attempting to do clever valuations of stocks :-). I shall holster my guns now. Unique.

you would think so but probably in the maths department rather than english

[macduffy]

Is this thread still discussing Oceania Group?

[winner69]

Is this thread still discussing Oceania Group?

I think the congregation is in shock with the plummeting share price

[couta1]

I think the congregation is in shock with the plummeting share price Well not really much of a shock unless its goes under that magic 1 buck mark.

[winner69]

Been exploring the South Island the last week or so. The day I left we had that shooting star candle pattern

That shooting star candle sure was bearish

[peat]

Been exploring the South Island the last week or so. The day I left we had that shooting star candle pattern

That shooting star candle sure was bearish


I was just about to pop in this thread and remind everyone !!! Enjoy the South. I did that after the first lockdown it was great so glad I did now that my life has turned upside down.

NB edit I take no glee in share price falling, but obviously am pleased candlestick info worked out in this case since I was so strident about it

[peat]

Candle today so far drawn in .
12047

[Beagle]

Still in a very nice uptrend and comfortably above the 30 day moving average which is way back at $1.21. I leave the abandoned babies, shooting stars and other micro nuanced tea leaf reading TA stuff to others. Happy to stick to the fundamental's and observe that the the clear up-trend is intact.
Disc: Very happy long term holder.

[Waltzing]

i think the price drop has more to do with global market movements than an alignment of stars. I am expecting a 10 to 15 cent pull back from 1.40. This share has a habit of selling off and rebuilding over a 6 month period. The last ones were attributed to MQ but i think it would have sold off at last half as much anyway due to the FA. I think this last move has a lot to do with an over headed property market. I think we have seen the rush to buy OCA for a while, there will be another bigger rush when and if the FA shows sales and profits.

[Cyclical]

One would assume a certain level of education when attempting to do clever valuations of stocks :-). I shall holster my guns now. Unique.

A handful of posts in and all you've had to offer so far are personal cracks at one of the longtime members...way to go. Perhaps you've joined the wrong forum.

[winner69]

A handful of posts in and all you've had to offer so far are personal cracks at one of the longtime members...way to go. Perhaps you've joined the wrong forum.

Gunner talks about holstering his gun

I prefer the The Urban Dictionary meaning of gunner

[Gunner]

A handful of posts in and all you've had to offer so far are personal cracks at one of the longtime members...way to go. Perhaps you've joined the wrong forum.

Have you seen the stuff he writes? His ranking in your eyes means nothing.

[Beagle]

Have you seen the stuff he writes? His ranking in your eyes means nothing.

He can't have Bull**** as his user handle, the terms and conditions of the website don't allow it lol

You've got to learn to ignore those not worth listening too. It takes time and practice to refine one's skills in that regard.

[Waltzing]

well my gramma is shocking. my history prof said id be a writer... i was shocked , my gramma did not put him off my essays...prob why my french is terrible, always forget which is Male / Fem.

[mike2020]

well my gramma is shocking. my history prof said id be a writer... i was shocked , my gramma did not put him off my essays...prob why my french is terrible, always forget which is Male / Fem.

My parents thought I would be a doctor or a lawyer and my hand writing matches both. I am in Beagles camp with property valuations supporting OCA, the market itself makes OCA an easy trade for anyone who is well in profit and lets face it not a lot of buyers out there today.

[Cyclical]

Have you seen the stuff he writes? His ranking in your eyes means nothing.

Yes, I often cringe at some people's efforts at good England here, but I'm no expert and aren't here to judge. I'm on this forum to listen to people's investment opinions, not critique how they articulate them. I work with plenty of reasonably intelligent people that can't seem to put things on paper well, or say things like somethink etc, but you get to point where you have to look past all that, otherwise you go nuts! Show me an Internet forum where everyone uses good gramma.

[Waltzing]

20/20, I think if you are trading this stock 1.40-45 was a good price to sell. A good buy will be 1.20 on the basis of the chart. Now the chart people may disagree with my view of the paint (Chart). As for the long term estimate of value i will wait for the FA reports. Im not concerned about the gramma only the Alpha Beta.

[Cyclical]

20/20, I think if you are trading this stock 1.40-45 was a good price to sell. A good buy will be 1.20 on the basis of the chart. Now the chart people may disagree with my view of the paint (Chart). As for the long term estimate of value i will wait for the FA reports. Im not concerned about the gramma only the Alpha Beta.
Regardless of what the charts say, I reckon she's all going to be at liberty of the Dow for the next week or two. Predicting a little bounce tonight, followed by a tough Friday in the US to set NZ up for a rocky week next. Whether we see ~120c remains to be seen, but better scratch together some powder just in case :-)

[winner69]

At least OCA didn’t close at the day’s low

That would have been bad

[Waltzing]

rocky next 2 weeks? experts say 12 months to get a vaccine out there to 20% of the world. Anything is possible over the next 12 months and we are always trading to create powder or using it. Our AVE price is about 1.20 across portfolios for OCA after trading it up across it ranges several times for good profits. We lost those profits in AIR! A bit like a balloon that got popped!

[Cyclical]

rocky next 2 weeks? experts say 12 months to get a vaccine out there to 20% of the world.

For sure Covid ain't going away anytime soon but my thoughts around more immediate volatility is centred on the US election.

[King1212]

Herald article...suggesting Mr Orr to pull LVR trigger.... because the housing market is over heated....might see OCA down to $1.20?

[Cyclical]

Herald article...suggesting Mr Orr to pull LVR trigger.... because the housing market is over heated....might see OCA down to $1.20?
Was wondering when we might see that, probably not a big surprise to Mr Market. Where I live it's so insane you don't know a property is for sale until the sign goes up with a sold sticker on it. Putting the LVR restrictions back in place will put the brakes on a little, but will likely cause a bun fight between now and its implementation. I expect it will take more than that to actually reverse the trend, and interest rates won't be going up anytime soon. Nothing to read here for OCA IMO.

[Waltzing]

yes i wondered if the restrictions will simply slow what is being reported as sounding like an investing frenzy?

[Baa_Baa]

yes i wondered if the restrictions will simply slow what is being reported as sounding like an investing frenzy?

Won’t affect OCA or any other retirement sector company in any way regardless of what the RBNZ do to LVR

[King1212]

It will....the sentiment. Residential property sector was really encouraging and positive in the last couple months n helps the sentiment of retirement sector and other properties stocks.

[Cyclical]

It will....the sentiment. Residential property sector was really encouraging and positive in the last couple months n helps the sentiment of retirement sector and other properties stocks.

Yeah but do you think the reinstatement of LVR restrictions is enough to change it from being encouraging and positive? I can't see it myself.

[King1212]

Not sure...once it reinstated...then result can be seen....no one here expected real estate is so hot post lockdown.

Clearly Mr Orr did not expect kiwis returned and all brought thier money and bought the property

[bull....]

Herald article...suggesting Mr Orr to pull LVR trigger.... because the housing market is over heated....might see OCA down to $1.20?

If lvr restrictions are introduced it will definitely have an effect on house price rises. Hence why retirement stocks selling off

a study by the rbnz said so


The Reserve Bank’s initial estimates, published in a recent Analytical Note, are that LVR restrictions will result in 3-8 percent fewer house sales, 1-4 percentage point lower house price inflation and 1-3 percentage point lower housing credit growth over the first year that LVR restrictions are in place, than would have otherwise been the case.1 (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/financial-stability/financial-stability-report/fsr2013-11/assessing-the-impact-of-lvr-restrictions#fn1)

https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/financial-stability/financial-stability-report/fsr2013-11/assessing-the-impact-of-lvr-restrictions


looks like the smart money got out just at the right time .... 1.20 here we come lol

[Gunner]

If lvr restrictions are introduced it will definitely have an effect on house price rises. Hence why retirement stocks selling off

a study by the rbnz said so


The Reserve Bank’s initial estimates, published in a recent Analytical Note, are that LVR restrictions will result in 3-8 percent fewer house sales, 1-4 percentage point lower house price inflation and 1-3 percentage point lower housing credit growth over the first year that LVR restrictions are in place, than would have otherwise been the case.1 (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/financial-stability/financial-stability-report/fsr2013-11/assessing-the-impact-of-lvr-restrictions#fn1)

https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/financial-stability/financial-stability-report/fsr2013-11/assessing-the-impact-of-lvr-restrictions


looks like the smart money got out just at the right time .... 1.20 here we come lol

I think you may have jumped the gun on saying now is a goodtime to get out Bull. There will be short term volatility with the US elections and rising Covid cases overseas but this also presents opportunity on stockslike OCA.

Even if the Reserve Bank introduce tighter LVR restrictions,there are two questions. When will this happen and by what degree. I believe they will introduce tighter LVR restrictions early next year but it will be moderate, as to not scare the market. Property inflation will still be feeding throughto OCA for the short to medium term IMO.

[winner69]

I think you may have jumped the gun on saying now is a goodtime to get out Bull. There will be short term volatility with the US elections and rising Covid cases overseas but this also presents opportunity on stockslike OCA.

Even if the Reserve Bank introduce tighter LVR restrictions,there are two questions. When will this happen and by what degree. I believe they will introduce tighter LVR restrictions early next year but it will be moderate, as to not scare the market. Property inflation will still be feeding throughto OCA for the short to medium term IMO.

You space bar broken mate?

harder to read than bad gramma

[winner69]

One thing with the Oceania share price in the mid 130's is that we can take solace with is that it's about what professional analysts come up with - even more so if we discount Forbars outrageous bullishness a little

Can't argue with professionals ..so things not too bad at the moment

[bull....]

I think you may have jumped the gun on saying now is a goodtime to get out Bull. There will be short term volatility with the US elections and rising Covid cases overseas but this also presents opportunity on stockslike OCA.

Even if the Reserve Bank introduce tighter LVR restrictions,there are two questions. When will this happen and by what degree. I believe they will introduce tighter LVR restrictions early next year but it will be moderate, as to not scare the market. Property inflation will still be feeding throughto OCA for the short to medium term IMO.

I must say your grammer is very good compared to mine although i had trouble finding the word throughto in the dictionary. i dont dis-agree with your comments and add the comment property prices are more are about lack of supply than low interest rates

[Gunner]

I’m looking forward to upgrading my space bar button withthe proceeds from OCA. Might even splash out on a new keyboard.

Glad to hear you have a dictionary Bull.

[Beagle]

One thing with the Oceania share price in the mid 130's is that we can take solace with is that it's about what professional analysts come up with - even more so if we discount Forbars outrageous bullishness a little

Can't argue with professionals

Forbar's target price is $1.65 based on eps of 8 cps. For what its worth Maverick and I are very close at 10 cps for the 10 months to 31/3/21, (annualised 12 cps).
I know he has a massive position and my position in OCA is my largest listed investment position.

[winner69]

Forbar's target price is $1.65 based on eps of 8 cps. For what its worth Maverick and I are very close at 10 cps for the 10 months to 31/3/21, (annualised 12 cps).
I know he has a massive position and my position in OCA is my largest listed investment position.

Does my forecast EPS of 13 cents count?

Based on what Earl said it would be in 2020 and I’ve given him an extra year

[dompf]

If lvr restrictions are introduced it will definitely have an effect on house price rises. Hence why retirement stocks selling off

a study by the rbnz said so


The Reserve Bank’s initial estimates, published in a recent Analytical Note, are that LVR restrictions will result in 3-8 percent fewer house sales, 1-4 percentage point lower house price inflation and 1-3 percentage point lower housing credit growth over the first year that LVR restrictions are in place, than would have otherwise been the case.1 (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/financial-stability/financial-stability-report/fsr2013-11/assessing-the-impact-of-lvr-restrictions#fn1)

https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/financial-stability/financial-stability-report/fsr2013-11/assessing-the-impact-of-lvr-restrictions


looks like the smart money got out just at the right time .... 1.20 here we come lol

LVR restrictions were only lifted to combat Covid19 in May 2020 and are being reviewed in May 2021; anyway it was a temporary removal.

Overall housing market being stimulated by cheap interest rates that look like they will get even lower with FLP.

Banks still running 6-7% test rates for servicing affordability. Some banks haven’t even offered 80 LVR for investors so I’m doubting even if they are put back on early by Orr it’s going to make much difference while we are seeing historically low interest rates.

I mean what are Mum and dad investors that have a tidy sum in the bank going to do when the return on a rental property is far superior to the nominal bank interest they are getting?

[Beagle]

Does my forecast EPS of 13 cents count?

Based on what Earl said it would be in 2020 and I’ve given him an extra year

Absolutely mate. On an annualisied basis I think there's a very good chance you could be right ! If you're right we're all Winners ;)

[bull....]

LVR restrictions were only lifted to combat Covid19 in May 2020 and are being reviewed in May 2021; anyway it was a temporary removal.

Overall housing market being stimulated by cheap interest rates that look like they will get even lower with FLP.

Banks still running 6-7% test rates for servicing affordability. Some banks haven’t even offered 80 LVR for investors so I’m doubting even if they are put back on early by Orr it’s going to make much difference while we are seeing historically low interest rates.

I mean what are Mum and dad investors that have a tidy sum in the bank going to do when the return on a rental property is far superior to the nominal bank interest they are getting?

who would want to own a rental going forward? the side effect of low rates is rising inequality leading to lots more non rent paying tenants of which some will smoke P and others will trash the place all things becoming a lot more common.

[bull....]

I forgot to add all those old folk in retirement units earning no interest on there term deposits going mad due to rolling lockdowns , trashing the retirement units etc some smoking P etc. retirement unit costs for maintenance etc likely to go up for operators

[dompf]

who would want to own a rental going forward? the side effect of low rates is rising inequality leading to lots more non rent paying tenants of which some will smoke P and others will trash the place all things becoming a lot more common.

I understand your point of view but clearly a lot of people still want them.

[Gunner]

I forgot to add all those old folk in retirement units earning no interest on there term deposits going mad due to rolling lockdowns , trashing the retirement units etc some smoking P etc. retirement unit costs for maintenance etc likely to go up for operators

Grannies smoking P?? Gosh!

[Beagle]

I forgot to add all those old folk in retirement units earning no interest on there term deposits going mad due to rolling lockdowns , trashing the retirement units etc some smoking P etc. retirement unit costs for maintenance etc likely to go up for operators

LOL...no need to attend the Russian circus currently in town...plenty of humor and clown acts right here ;)

[Greekwatchdog]

Seriously Bull. What crack are you on?

[couta1]

Seriously Bull. What crack are you on? The crackpot variety obviously.

[macduffy]

I forgot to add all those old folk in retirement units earning no interest on there term deposits going mad due to rolling lockdowns , trashing the retirement units etc some smoking P etc. retirement unit costs for maintenance etc likely to go up for operators

Not so. Your imaginary "trashing" would be taken care of from the eventual repayment of the Occupancy Advance.

[dobby41]

who would want to own a rental going forward? the side effect of low rates is rising inequality leading to lots more non rent paying tenants of which some will smoke P and others will trash the place all things becoming a lot more common.

Seems to be turning into a rental property thread - something I know a bit about.
Lots of people will want to own a rental because leverage is your friend and it is the easiest way to make capital.
Tenants not paying rent - get rid of them (the new laws have actually made that easier for this) and get a better one. Due to the shortage of rentals there is quite a big pool of potential tenants.
In my experience P and property trashing is rare.

[thegreatestben]

I'm subdividing and building two new stand alone town houses on my property in addition to our current home.
Looking at it compared to selling them BOTP I'll be much better off hanging onto them and becoming a landlord.

[justakiwi]

I think it might be you doing the smoking :huh:


I forgot to add all those old folk in retirement units earning no interest on there term deposits going mad due to rolling lockdowns , trashing the retirement units etc some smoking P etc. retirement unit costs for maintenance etc likely to go up for operators

[Cyclical]

I forgot to add all those old folk in retirement units earning no interest on there term deposits going mad due to rolling lockdowns , trashing the retirement units etc some smoking P etc. retirement unit costs for maintenance etc likely to go up for operators

This is the thing right, with giving the oldies access to the Internet...next thing they're being lead astray by binge watching Breaking Bad on Netflix during lockdown...now look what's happened, P labs being run up in your nearest Methlife retirement village...thank the lord it's now the Swede's problem. The elderly of today I tell you...they've a lot to answer for.

[Gunner]

This is the thing right, with giving the oldies access to the Internet...next thing they're being lead astray by binge watching Breaking Bad on Netflix during lockdown...now look what's happened, P labs being run up in your nearest Methlife retirement village...thank the lord it's now the Swede's problem. The elderly of today I tell you...they've a lot to answer for.

Back in my day, the elderly were respectful and behaved themselves. What is the world coming to?

[winner69]

Another month come and gone so updated the old OCA shareprice as % SUM share price chart

A bit better looking for OCA but still below the long term average and trend

The trend line is interesting - it essentially says that ever since listing the OCA shareprice has underperformed relative to SUM (OCA up 63% with SUM up 100% in time frame of chart)

Future - well who knows. Trends that reflect 'market behaviour' once entrenched generally are hard to reverse / break (inflections points included ;))

Hopefully both will continue to be successful investments - but who will outperform

[Zaphod]

Back in my day, the elderly were respectful and behaved themselves. What is the world coming to?

Some retail sectors have a high proportion of theft and stunningly rude behaviour committed by the elderly, who have some unique justifications for their actions. Don't think that they are all respectful and behaved, as they are just human like the rest of us.

Retirement villages have some unique challenges in dealing with these same people.

[Beagle]

Another month come and gone so updated the old OCA shareprice as % SUM share price chart

A bit better looking for OCA but still below the long term average and trend

The trend line is interesting - it essentially says that ever since listing the OCA shareprice has underperformed relative to SUM (OCA up 63% with SUM up 100% in time frame of chart)

Future - well who knows. Trends that reflect 'market behaviour' once entrenched generally are hard to reverse / break (inflections points included ;))

Hopefully both will continue to be successful investments - but who will outperform

You'd expect that given OCA's care profits have declined about $12m during the transitional phase of their business redevelopment program. Inflection points are usually a point of transition not just for the business but how it performs relative to others who are well past their own inflection point.

[Leftfield]

Thanks for posting Winner.

It is also useful to compare how a company has performed cf the NZX50 'yardstick'.

The following chart shows that OCA has underperformed the NZX50 from 2018 to 2020 - with the exception of a trend change from Feb- March 2020.

Since that time OCA has performed better than NZX50.

12050

Whether OCA will continue to outperform NZX50 in the future remains to be seen. I suspect it will.

[justakiwi]

So it wasn’t just me then? ;)

Brilliant series.


.....binge watching Breaking Bad on Netflix during lockdown....

[Baa_Baa]

Whether OCA will continue to outperform NZX50 in the future remains to be seen. I suspect it will.

Those 'comparison' charts work better if they start on the day OCA listed, to give a true comparison.

NZX 50 Capital vs OCA (https://invst.ly/snqm9)

NZX 50 Gross vs OCA (https://invst.ly/snqmn)

I agree with your conclusion though, otherwise might as well just own an index fund.

[Leftfield]

Those 'comparison' charts work better if they start on the day OCA listed, to give a true comparison.

NZX 50 Capital vs OCA (https://invst.ly/snqm9)

NZX 50 Gross vs OCA (https://invst.ly/snqmn)

I agree with your conclusion though, otherwise might as well just own an index fund.

Thanks Baa Baa. Good charts. Always good to outperform NZX50 IMHO.

[sampson]

Nice one Baa Baa. Shows how extreme the OCA drop was during the crash. Congrats to those that bought at 38 or close, that took some courage. I bought a small percentage of my holdings at about 65 and even then was a pretty nervous despite the obvious value, waiting for a 2nd drop.

[Greekwatchdog]

Interesting Read. Paywall.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/600m-summerset-plans-rile-neighbours-communities-react-against-villages/SQS2GOBTL6ESJXKXNNDLSZTYU4/

[Zaphod]

Interesting Read. Paywall.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/600m-summerset-plans-rile-neighbours-communities-react-against-villages/SQS2GOBTL6ESJXKXNNDLSZTYU4/

For those that can't read this, the article basically re-hashes the same issues as outlined in the previous article. Residents don't understand how the RMA nor unitary plan work, some have not been deemed effected parties for the purpose of the RMA, they assert there is no buffer between the buildings and their properties, they believe their houses will be shaded by the buildings, etc. There is no mention whether these latter issues are personal opinion based on the plans, or whether they have sought expert opinion.

It's probably worth Summerset engaging with even the non-effected residents, even though this is unlikely to resolve the issues. It will certainly lower the risk of any formal objections raised by the group being carried by council, a commissioner at a hearing, or at the EC.

[winner69]

MET money in punters hands

OCA in for a good few days ...first in get best deal ....don’t miss out

That’s unless they are real investors and put some of it on Russian Camelot in the Melbourne Cup today

[Bjauck]

MET money in punters hands

OCA in for a good few days ...first in get best deal ....don’t miss out

That’s unless they are real investors and put some of it on Russian Camelot in the Melbourne Cup today I think the money is still “on its way” at the moment.

[Beagle]

Interesting Read. Paywall.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/600m-summerset-plans-rile-neighbours-communities-react-against-villages/SQS2GOBTL6ESJXKXNNDLSZTYU4/

Worth reiterating that OCA had its St Heliers development approved and earth works are underway, (as confirmed by myself with a site visit a few weeks ago).

[bull....]

Interesting Read. Paywall.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/600m-summerset-plans-rile-neighbours-communities-react-against-villages/SQS2GOBTL6ESJXKXNNDLSZTYU4/

people selling on this news eh?

[Grimy]

I've just got a few more at $1.30. An order I've had in for a week or two and almost forgotten about. Could be good timing being just ahead of the MET money arriving.
Or it could be on it's way back to $1........
And before I get jumped on for saying that, if I had an OCA share for every time people have said "it'll never go under $1 again"....well, I'd have a few more shares!

[bottomfeeder]

Yeah, Im loading up a few more at $1.30. Its the long term picture I am looking at.

[peat]

but you have to admit OCA has been relatively weak since the shooting star....

[dompf]

but you have to admit OCA has been relatively weak since the shooting star....

The whole market’s been weak since your shooting star.

But you were right one way or another.

[peat]

And no doubt folks will be more pleased to hear about a bullish candle yesterday , almost the exact opposite of the shooting star in fact
12061

[Beagle]

And no doubt folks will be more pleased to hear about a bullish candle yesterday , almost the exact opposite of the shooting star in fact
12061

You're a good guard dog of the technical stuff. The main thing is to ensure we don't see any abandoned babies ;)

[peat]

You're a good guard dog of the technical stuff. The main thing is to ensure we don't see any abandoned babies ;)

I'll take that as a compliment , if a little flippant ha.
Abandoned babies are much more likely to happen at an airport AIA.NZ or or at a shopping mall SCG.AU

[Beagle]

LOL
It was intended as one.
RYM coming in for some love today...people must think their forthcoming half year result will be stellar. Rising tide lifts all boats :t_up:

[winner69]

LOL
It was intended as one.
RYM coming in for some love today...people must think their forthcoming half year result will be stellar. Rising tide lifts all boats :t_up:

Methinks it’ll be pretty good and no doubt give a few valuable insights into sector activity and valuations

And a rising tide is good

[Curly]

RYM + .25
SUM + .20
OCA + .02
Hope MET payout will bring some balanced increase.

[Cyclical]

RYM + .25
SUM + .20
OCA + .02
Hope MET payout will bring some balanced increase.


RYM + 1.8%
SUM + 2.0%
OCA + 1.5%
Not a great deal in it.

[winner69]

No sign of MET money coming OCA way yet

Price ok but volumes pretty miserable

[bull....]

wall of money coming is a mirage lol there spending there loot on houses and at briscoes instead

[Gunner]

Possibly, and I think waiting for the volatility to settle down.

[winner69]

Thought we were in for another shooting star today but closing at days low put paid to that

Probably a hmmer of some sort

[Waltzing]

we sold some into the SpaceX rocket engine test at that start of the day as the money needed else where.. nice sell off later in the day... thanks for that NZX.

prehaps it should be called a sky rocket at this time of year ?

[dompf]

Thought we were in for another shooting star today but closing at days low put paid to that

Probably a hmmer of some sort

There was a big scoop at the end of the day for RYM, SUM and OCA - OCA had a 1m+ xfer at close. RYM SUM a bit higher; similar $ figure

[King1212]

PIL announcement to get in aged care facilities...

[Beagle]

Thought we were in for another shooting star today but closing at days low put paid to that

Probably a hmmer of some sort

Looked a bit like an abandoned baby at the end of the day. ;)
Disc: Very happy long term holder

[Baa_Baa]

Looked a bit like an abandoned baby at the end of the day. ;)
Disc: Very happy long term holder

Certainly not an abandoned baby, maybe you could let it go, it’s not helping imo. ? i know you’re teasing the ta’s, but we’re all in this together

OCA might benefit from the met payout, though it might not, who knows. I think it’s irrelevant really as OCA has already rerated nicely. Just beginning to price in the future state business model

Question is short term whether we can hold these gains, maybe build on them, or wait until the numbers speak for themselves.

Not selling and building a cash position to ramp into my target holding. So close it’s quite exciting

[Waltzing]

"Looked a bit like an abandoned baby at the end of the day. ;)"

oh no.... a government depart will have to come to the rescue....

spluttering fizzer... how about a buy the big dipper...

[Beagle]

"Looked a bit like an abandoned baby at the end of the day. ;)"

Unfortunately I was out and about yesterday afternoon otherwise I would have given it a cuddle at that price.
Probably time I stopped teasing the TA experts. Quite possibly isn't helping.
Just over 2 months until the half year results in January which (if Mav and I are right with our analysis and I am backing myself to the hilt to be right and I know he is too), is going to stun the market and leave the analysts gob smacked and scrambling to revise their price targets. Forsyth Barr will have to dramatically raise their $1.65 price target probably by about 50 cents like they did last time, this time to $2.15 !

[Waltzing]

"a cuddle at that price"

oh what a relief,,, no need for government support after all.... except for some retirement age care subsidies.

happy to buy more up to about 1.50 when then time is right and i think looking at the chart it stays very steady for long enough to allows some time after the eager beavers have had a bite.

Some people just love to see patterns in the swirling pools of down stream water ways....

stoppa hydraulics

[winner69]

Unfortunately I was out and about yesterday afternoon otherwise I would have given it a cuddle at that price.
Probably time I stopped teasing the TA experts. Quite possibly isn't helping.
Just over 2 months until the half year results in January which (if Mav and I are right with our analysis and I am backing myself to the hilt to be right and I know he is too), is going to stun the market and leave the analysts gob smacked and scrambling to revise their price targets. Forsyth Barr will have to dramatically raise their $1.65 price target probably by about 50 cents like they did last time, this time to $2.15 !

Didn't Jarden recently upgarde OCA to OUTPERFORM $1.30

It's done that since they published the report

[Beagle]

Didn't Jarden recently upgarde OCA to OUTPERFORM $1.30

It's done that since they published the report

Yeah and they are picking eps of just 7 cents for the year to 31/5/21....same as last year which was heavily impacted by Covid...go figure ?
They haven't even picked up the balance date change.

[winner69]

Yeah and they are picking eps of just 7 cents for the year to 31/5/20....same as last year which was heavily impacted by Covid...go figure ?
They haven't even picked up the balance date change.

Probably thought that on a trend basis 7 cents would be a good effort - like 50.9 to 50.8 to 42.9 and then 43.0

I think Forbar analysts won a prestigious award the other day

But the guru broker analysts are probably about as good as political pollsters

[Beagle]

To be fair to the analysts covering this. Maverick and I can apply substantial amounts of time on our analysis. How much time they spend on it I wouldn't know.

[bull....]

the top anallist on sharetrader is back into oca , lets rock i think its going to $2 based on my expert opinion , ive upgraded the number of old people that i think intend to buy oca units in the next 60 days to bump there profits up to the top end of or better estimates

[Gunner]

No anal for me please

[Greekwatchdog]

Go get a Carrot Bull and eat it

[dompf]

Bull with the upgrade. Watch out.

[Cyclical]

the top anallist on sharetrader...

OMG


No anal for me please

Give him both barrels, Gunner!

[cymonger]

Reminds me of the line from the show "Arrested Development."


I'm an analyst AND a therapist. An analrapist if you will.

[Beagle]

Good to see some decent buying support yesterday.

[dreamcatcher]

Lets see where these Retirement stock go ....posted on 4/6

Updated -----------4/6----------..6/7--------------5/8.................8/9..................7/10............7/11

Arvida ..............$1.37..........$1.48 ............$1.60............$1.65................ $1.77.........$1.78
Summerset.......$6.34..........$6.73.............$ 7.80............$8.56...............$9.15......... $10.50
Ryman..............$13.35........$13.04 ..........$12.77..........$13.79.............$14.8 5.......$14.70
Oceania............$0.94..........$0.95 ............$1.03..............$1.04.............. $1.20.........$1.36
Metlifecare........$4.28..........$5.76 ............$5.92.............$5.94..............$ 5.98 .........$6.00

[Maverick]

I suspect most posters here are pretty well just waiting at this point for the January HY1 result to see for themselves if the point of inflection has indeed been reached and what it materializes as. I've personally got nothing to do now apart from sit on my hands until then.

Sooooo…..just for mental occupation, I've been exploring the effect of these heafty property price rises (currently HPI 15% yoy) and what net effect that will have on the OCA bottom line.

Firstly , there is a huge difference between monetising profit on house price rises from being a direct landlord compared to owning a piece of a retirement village. The landlord can only access this capital gain on the sale of the house. He can not put the rent up just because his asset is now worth 15% more as the rent limit is capped by affordability of the tenant, therefore increased cash return is tied more to wage inflation and less to the new value of the house.

Whereas the DMF structure does fully capture the HPI rises in cash because the incoming resident sells the family home at the new market rate and then pays the new market rate of the OCA unit. Therefore the new DMF price is directly tied to the HPI. Any OCA price increase will always be affordable as the new resident will have the same ratio of increased wealth to pay with.

Then moving on to how much HPI increase flows to the OCA bottom line. It gets tricky here because there are loads of effects intertwined.
For example;
-New sales profit margins are affected disproportionately greater than the HPI rise itself as any dollar earned extra is pure profit as there are no extra costs to earn it. (it also doesn't costs any more to build stuff which is now selling for more).
-Resales margins are also disproportionately higher as noted above.
-Both new and resale downstream DMFs are now also higher.

Enter the spreadsheets…..It turns out it's surprisingly easy to model different HPI assumptions as all the s/sheet cells are already set up interconnected to each other making the above considerations automated. FWIW , until now I had assumed a general 2% HPI going forward even though it has historically been about 3.5% average the last few years, just to stay conservative.

The result turns out simple and consistent;
For each 1% HPI rise equates to about 1% increase in underlying earnings, thereafter about 0.6% for the following 3 years as the increased DMF effect washes through.

So with the HPI increase currently at 15% that implies if OCA was to put in a "no growth" year of $50m underlying once again then this time it would now actually be $57.5m and the following 3 years about $53m.
This simple scenario is based on house price rises alone to demonstrate the net effect. There is no consideration for;
New deliveries ,
high “catchup “ sales volumes from FY 20, completion only finalised post lockdown in FY 21,
inflection points,
or multiple other things which are also currently in play.

Of course this fully applies to all the other village operators too. It's easy to see why SUM is so popular right now being biggest beneficiary by having the most empty stock available to capture this wave.

As previously stated I also have the HY1 forecast at about 12cps (annualized underlying ) inline with Beagles. I acknowledge this estimate seems ridiculously high given OCAs results to date but however I try to fault the numbers and assumptions, this result still sticks.

There is absolutely no doubt in my mind the result is going to be VERY impressive.

[Chinesekiwi]

Funniest line in what was a very witty show.


Reminds me of the line from the show "Arrested Development."


I'm an analyst AND a therapist. An analrapist if you will.

[Waltzing]

Anyone modelled the "house prices never go down " , Helicopter Ben. Yes not likely in the next 6 months.

I like MR M having a spreadsheet model because for this company transforming, the model would need a lot of work and is very very valuable..

[Beagle]

I suspect most posters here are pretty well just waiting at this point for the January HY1 result to see for themselves if the point of inflection has indeed been reached and what it materializes as. I've personally got nothing to do now apart from sit on my hands until then.

Sooooo…..just for mental occupation, I've been exploring the effect of these heafty property price rises (currently HPI 15% yoy) and what net effect that will have on the OCA bottom line.

Firstly , there is a huge difference between monetising profit on house price rises from being a direct landlord compared to owning a piece of a retirement village. The landlord can only access this capital gain on the sale of the house. He can not put the rent up just because his asset is now worth 15% more as the rent limit is capped by affordability of the tenant, therefore increased cash return is tied more to wage inflation and less to the new value of the house.

Whereas the DMF structure does fully capture the HPI rises in cash because the incoming resident sells the family home at the new market rate and then pays the new market rate of the OCA unit. Therefore the new DMF price is directly tied to the HPI. Any OCA price increase will always be affordable as the new resident will have the same ratio of increased wealth to pay with.

Then moving on to how much HPI increase flows to the OCA bottom line. It gets tricky here because there are loads of effects intertwined.
For example;
-New sales profit margins are affected disproportionately greater than the HPI rise itself as any dollar earned extra is pure profit as there are no extra costs to earn it. (it also doesn't costs any more to build stuff which is now selling for more).
-Resales margins are also disproportionately higher as noted above.
-Both new and resale downstream DMFs are now also higher.

Enter the spreadsheets…..It turns out it's surprisingly easy to model different HPI assumptions as all the s/sheet cells are already set up interconnected to each other making the above considerations automated. FWIW , until now I had assumed a general 2% HPI going forward even though it has historically been about 3.5% average the last few years, just to stay conservative.

The result turns out simple and consistent;
For each 1% HPI rise equates to about 1% increase in underlying earnings, thereafter about 0.6% for the following 3 years as the increased DMF effect washes through.

So with the HPI increase currently at 15% that implies if OCA was to put in a "no growth" year of $50m underlying once again then this time it would now actually be $57.5m and the following 3 years about $53m.
This simple scenario is based on house price rises alone to demonstrate the net effect. There is no consideration for;
New deliveries ,
high “catchup “ sales volumes from FY 20, completion only finalised post lockdown in FY 21,
inflection points,
or multiple other things which are also currently in play.

Of course this fully applies to all the other village operators too. It's easy to see why SUM is so popular right now being biggest beneficiary by having the most empty stock available to capture this wave.

As previously stated I also have the HY1 forecast at about 12cps (annualized underlying ) inline with Beagles. I acknowledge this estimate seems ridiculously high given OCAs results to date but however I try to fault the numbers and assumptions, this result still sticks.

There is absolutely no doubt in my mind the result is going to be VERY impressive.




Thanks Mav.

I feel increasingly confident based on real estate prices and volumes sold we're in very good shape with our forecast.

[Waltzing]

ok not usually in on a sunday evening whatching local Tv1.

reports of 250 thousand kiwis returning from world wide over next 2 to 5 years.

house prices?

[Beagle]

ok not usually in on a sunday evening whatching local Tv1.

reports of 250 thousand kiwis returning from world wide over next 2 to 5 years.

house prices?

Ballistic !! We can't build houses that quickly. Demand will vastly outstrip supply.

[Greekwatchdog]

Already is outstripping supply. Good grief telephone numbers...

[Beagle]

In an interesting coincidence a couple of weeks ago I had a good chat with the PWC partner that used to be in charge of the OCA audit, (very bright guy).
His comment was these retirement companies are mainly an asset play and with OCA you're only paying a very modest premium above asset value especially after the very strong year we've had in the market. Of his own volition and without any prompting from me he brought up my pet subject of Ryman's premium to NTA, (last time I looked it was about 3x NTA) and shared his thoughts that's it's much harder to get a decent return out of property when you're paying so much for goodwill.

Reading between the lines I gathered he would be happy to own OCA if he could. Partners of PWC are not allowed to own shares in companies they audit, (perceived and possible real conflict of interest).

Anyway...for what his comment is worth its worth noting now that MET has gone ARV trades at the lowest premium to the last reported NTA at 40% and OCA is 43%. SUM is more than double NTA and RYM just over triple.

[Waltzing]

Yes just read the herald article on it....

yikes in this very very quiet corner of the golden tri angle one can only here the sound of cows and some horses...but it appears in the quit towns and city of these tiny islands the herald reports with statement like ..

""It's by far the biggest month that we've ever seen and I think part of that is that the banks are under pressure, there's lots more people seeking advice. It's huge numbers, unprecedented numbers nobody's seen before around everything to do with housing"

prehaps we dont have enough OCA and we should be selling assets in other sectors as soon as they return to cost price ... getting close..

i being to think MR B might see his above 2 dollars and then skys the limit?

I was thinking prehaps the partner has a family trust and he can own them at a hand off distance.

my fav read is a 1995 research document on advance trusts in the ACA library... not sure its still on the accounting societies research archives but its worth a good read.

[Beagle]

Family trust may breech the associated persons test of conflict of interest rules that I believe the big firms have as a condition of their terms of audit engagement.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/jane-clifton-nzs-lingering-property-price-problem/IKAUUYZAZT4U3FD66XAMS3QN7E/ Paywalled article
Nub of it is...nothing is going to stop this real estate market going up.

[peat]

I was thinking prehaps the partner has a family trust and he can own them at a hand off distance.




wow, do you really think that would be ok?
Arent you a trustee yourself?

Perhaps you should consider doing some structured professional development so as to ensure you fully understand your responsibilities.

[bull....]

I suspect most posters here are pretty well just waiting at this point for the January HY1 result to see for themselves if the point of inflection has indeed been reached and what it materializes as. I've personally got nothing to do now apart from sit on my hands until then.

Sooooo…..just for mental occupation, I've been exploring the effect of these heafty property price rises (currently HPI 15% yoy) and what net effect that will have on the OCA bottom line.

Firstly , there is a huge difference between monetising profit on house price rises from being a direct landlord compared to owning a piece of a retirement village. The landlord can only access this capital gain on the sale of the house. He can not put the rent up just because his asset is now worth 15% more as the rent limit is capped by affordability of the tenant, therefore increased cash return is tied more to wage inflation and less to the new value of the house.

Whereas the DMF structure does fully capture the HPI rises in cash because the incoming resident sells the family home at the new market rate and then pays the new market rate of the OCA unit. Therefore the new DMF price is directly tied to the HPI. Any OCA price increase will always be affordable as the new resident will have the same ratio of increased wealth to pay with.

Then moving on to how much HPI increase flows to the OCA bottom line. It gets tricky here because there are loads of effects intertwined.
For example;
-New sales profit margins are affected disproportionately greater than the HPI rise itself as any dollar earned extra is pure profit as there are no extra costs to earn it. (it also doesn't costs any more to build stuff which is now selling for more).
-Resales margins are also disproportionately higher as noted above.
-Both new and resale downstream DMFs are now also higher.

Enter the spreadsheets…..It turns out it's surprisingly easy to model different HPI assumptions as all the s/sheet cells are already set up interconnected to each other making the above considerations automated. FWIW , until now I had assumed a general 2% HPI going forward even though it has historically been about 3.5% average the last few years, just to stay conservative.

The result turns out simple and consistent;
For each 1% HPI rise equates to about 1% increase in underlying earnings, thereafter about 0.6% for the following 3 years as the increased DMF effect washes through.

So with the HPI increase currently at 15% that implies if OCA was to put in a "no growth" year of $50m underlying once again then this time it would now actually be $57.5m and the following 3 years about $53m.
This simple scenario is based on house price rises alone to demonstrate the net effect. There is no consideration for;
New deliveries ,
high “catchup “ sales volumes from FY 20, completion only finalised post lockdown in FY 21,
inflection points,
or multiple other things which are also currently in play.

Of course this fully applies to all the other village operators too. It's easy to see why SUM is so popular right now being biggest beneficiary by having the most empty stock available to capture this wave.

As previously stated I also have the HY1 forecast at about 12cps (annualized underlying ) inline with Beagles. I acknowledge this estimate seems ridiculously high given OCAs results to date but however I try to fault the numbers and assumptions, this result still sticks.

There is absolutely no doubt in my mind the result is going to be VERY impressive.




good reasoning , like i was saying much earlier on the thread do up the shi..ers and sell them for more. basic property play and in a hot market as now as you mention you can now sell the re-no's for much more at a stable cost input. there should be some re-valuation gain backs this half as well which should inflate the result as well. dividend should go back to normal levels at least.

[peat]

nice post Mav

Just focusing on the DMF tho.
Are you assuming much benefit to the company from the DMF.
The DMF is a percentage of the original purchase price. hence by the time it is collected it is based on an out of date number .
On their website it is actually referred to as a Facilities Fee - correct? It is deferred but runs at 10% per year cumulating to a max of 30% after 3 years.


Isnt this allocated to maintenance of the dwelling though. In which case it is money in and money out unless the fee paid can buy more maintenance than is required. I guess at 30% (lets assume most stay that long) it will cover 3 years of maintenance easily enough. but say they live there 6 or 7 years, will there be any benefit from the payment as it is capped at 30% of the original price (now very outdated) and will most likely be fully spent on refurbishing the unit.

[Beagle]

Take an average priced unit Peat, lets call it $700K. 30% of that is $210K. I would suggest a typical restoration and refurbishment of the interior of a unit is a pretty small fraction of that figure but of course the real money is made from reselling that unit (they have reimbursed the estate for at $490K), at a significantly increased price to the new incoming resident.

[James108]

I believe, although could stand to be corrected as I haven’t looked into this for ages, but the gain on resale is net of refurb costs as well.

[Maverick]

nice post Mav

Just focusing on the DMF tho.
Are you assuming much benefit to the company from the DMF.
The DMF is a percentage of the original purchase price. hence by the time it is collected it is based on an out of date number .
On their website it is actually referred to as a Facilities Fee - correct? It is deferred but runs at 10% per year cumulating to a max of 30% after 3 years.


Isnt this allocated to maintenance of the dwelling though. In which case it is money in and money out unless the fee paid can buy more maintenance than is required. I guess at 30% (lets assume most stay that long) it will cover 3 years of maintenance easily enough. but say they live there 6 or 7 years, will there be any benefit from the payment as it is capped at 30% of the original price (now very outdated) and will most likely be fully spent on refurbishing the unit.
Hi Peat, good to get a gritty question from you to chew on especially on such a rainy day.

Winner and I went through your DMF /facility fee (same thing BTW) question about a year ago. We both viewed the DMF quite differently.
Winner originally saw it as you outline here, that it's a fee fully used up for the upkeep of the facilities.
I originally saw it quite differently, as mostly profit under a pretty label of “maintenance” in order to be more palatable to residents.

You decide for yourself how to see it after looking at the numbers from last FY. (Note I'm only using the “village” section of OCA and not including the “care” section DMF for simplicity.)
.................................................. .........................Fy 2020(a) .......FY2028(e)
Village DMF............................................... ................21.4m ............92m
Service fees (this is a weekly cash fee ) .......................6.0m ..............10m
Other income............................................ ................ 3.4m ..............4m
Total income............................................ ...............30.8m .............106m

Net village operating expenses...............................-15m...............-30m

Net Village profit............................................ .........15.8m..............74m

I have put in my own end of pipeline numbers (estimated 2028) to demonstrate how the growth of the DMF is one of the key drivers for OCAs profit expansion, especially important when the new sales margins dry up.

I think these numbers demonstrate that a large chunk of DMF is pure profit and not used for expenses. It also shows that the profit % of the DMF increases substantially as OCA converts more of its product to “high end” and then resells it under the DMF system.

Hope that's helpful Peat, did that answer your question?

[Beagle]

Hey Mav, I presume by end of pipeline in 2028 you mean the end of the foreseeable Greenfields and brownfields developments with existing land stock ?

There's no question in my mind the real tidal wave of demand for care suites comes as the baby boomers hit their mid 80's which means this company will have a huge and building demographic of demand growing for the next 25+ years. Plenty more land to be bought in the years ahead to continue building new facilities to meet such strong demand and with their excellent sector leading development margin I foresee this as being a superb long term hold well into the 2040's.

[winner69]

Hey Mav, I presume by end of pipeline in 2028 you mean the end of the foreseeable Greenfields and brownfields developments with existing land stock ?

There's no question in my mind the real tidal wave of demand for care suites comes as the baby boomers hit their mid 80's which means this company will have a huge and building demographic of demand growing for the next 25+ years. Plenty more land to be bought in the years ahead to continue building new facilities to meet such strong demand and with their excellent sector leading development margin I foresee this as being a superb long term hold well into the 2040's.

Thought you were saying share price of 2040

Probably will be that in 20 years ..... that’s only about 15% pa

What big ‘speed hump’ in those 20 years could happen for you to go into ‘capital preservation mode’

[peat]

Hi Peat, good to get a gritty question from you to chew on especially on such a rainy day.

Winner and I went through your DMF /facility fee (same thing BTW) question about a year ago. We both viewed the DMF quite differently.
Winner originally saw it as you outline here, that it's a fee fully used up for the upkeep of the facilities.
I originally saw it quite differently, as mostly profit under a pretty label of “maintenance” in order to be more palatable to residents.

You decide for yourself how to see it after looking at the numbers from last FY. (Note I'm only using the “village” section of OCA and not including the “care” section DMF for simplicity.)
.................................................. .........................Fy 2020(a) .......FY2028(e)
Village DMF............................................... ................21.4m ............92m
Service fees (this is a weekly cash fee ) .......................6.0m ..............10m
Other income............................................ ................ 3.4m ..............4m
Total income............................................ ...............30.8m .............106m

Net village operating expenses...............................-15m...............-30m

Net Village profit............................................ .........15.8m..............74m

I have put in my own end of pipeline numbers (estimated 2028) to demonstrate how the growth of the DMF is one of the key drivers for OCAs profit expansion, especially important when the new sales margins dry up.

I think these numbers demonstrate that a large chunk of DMF is pure profit and not used for expenses. It also shows that the profit % of the DMF increases substantially as OCA converts more of its product to “high end” and then resells it under the DMF system.

Hope that's helpful Peat, did that answer your question?



Cheers Mav, yeh its just horrible today , struggling to get over 10 degrees!

Your answer confirms that the DMF is worth investigating rigorously. It really boils down to the cost of refurbishments and certainly 210k (Beagles average DMF) seems a lot to restore a unit and no doubt will go a long way on 3 year stays but after a couple of say 7 year stays there will be roof replacement, full exterior painting - more costly requirements to restore the unit to something that can be sold for a premium price. While these may still come in under that 210k figure I wonder if sometimes a good substantial chunk of it may be required.

What really needs to be understood is the life long costs of maintaining a unit until it is rebuilt entirely. This will depend on the quality of the original construction I would imagine. I would expect these dwellings life expectancy to be less than a normal house due to the higher standards of modernity required by the (choosier) ongoing incumbents.

I have no idea how you model this but I guess it would need to incorporate an increasing rate of maintenance until an expiry date for the original construction ?

[Maverick]

Hey Mav, I presume by end of pipeline in 2028 you mean the end of the foreseeable Greenfields and brownfields developments with existing land stock ?

There's no question in my mind the real tidal wave of demand for care suites comes as the baby boomers hit their mid 80's which means this company will have a huge and building demographic of demand growing for the next 25+ years. Plenty more land to be bought in the years ahead to continue building new facilities to meet such strong demand and with their excellent sector leading development margin I foresee this as being a superb long term hold well into the 2040's.

Yes Beagle, that's exactly what I mean.

While it seems there is plenty of demand out there already for cares suites, their profitability is certainly good but it really pales in comparison to how much OCA will make by delivering high-end apartments in wealthy areas.(land freed up by building high density care suites off to the side) That's were the real coin is in my view.
I also see plenty of competition coming in from the other players, after all there is not really that much special about a care suite that others cant easily replicate.
So rather than them focusing on just building more care suits at the end of the current pipeline I see them as doing a RYM or SUM and heading over to Oz.

But that's all way down the track and they've got their hands full for now.

[peat]

12070Its good to see the blue candle of Friday after the dangerous looking candle the day before. Winner wondered that ones name - I think it is pretty close to being a marubozu , though they stricly speaking should have no wicks at all.

https://hitandruncandlesticks.com/marubozu-candlestick-pattern/

And while it was a bit scary , a strong down day with high volume , putting it in context of the previous hammer made it less so. A trader may have even bought on that low looking for support at the 130 level at the lowest point with a stop close to that. Resistance in the early part of the graph has now become support....

[Maverick]

What really needs to be understood is the life long costs of maintaining a unit until it is rebuilt entirely. This will depend on the quality of the original construction I would imagine. I would expect these dwellings life expectancy to be less than a normal house due to the higher standards of modernity required by the (choosier) ongoing incumbents.

I have no idea how you model this but I guess it would need to incorporate an increasing rate of maintenance until an expiry date for the original construction ?
Was talking to Greg Tomlinson the other day (total name dropping there but its actually true), he commented that these facilities have always been up for a full overhaul every 50 years or so. And that's pretty well what OCA are currently doing by knocking down those older 70`s buildings.

As far as the lesser maintenance items goes , I do not think it would cost much to fill a few nail holes on a wall and blow a new coat of half Spanish white around every now and again. The big ticket items such as new roofs and exterior painting surely must be pretty cheap per unit divided by many years in between with the new high density design and modern materials.

Any damage caused by the resident throwing a TV set out a window etc is charged extra back to their estate so those costs are contained.

So I personally see the maintenance costs per unit reducing in the years to come as a combination of the above and also the efficiency of scale due to more high density dwellings sharing the overhead.

[peat]

So I personally see the maintenance costs per unit reducing in the years to come as a combination of the above and also the efficiency of scale due to more high density dwellings sharing the overhead.

Yes you are probably right, but maybe not , in which case it could be a point of over optimism in your thinking.
I dont really know , just asking and discussing ... good on you for answering ...

[Beagle]

Yes you are probably right, but maybe not , in which case it could be a point of over optimism in your thinking.
I dont really know , just asking and discussing ... good on you for answering ...

I think you will find the average cost of the internal refurbishment of a unit occupied by an elderly person, (especially in a short stay, average about 2.5 years, care suite), is quite low. Sometimes all that's needed is a good steam clean of the carpets and drapes.

[Waltzing]

"Perhaps you should consider doing some structured professional development so as to ensure you fully understand your responsibilities."

it doesnt mean he has to have a trustee role.

prehaps just prehaps we have been creating a very extensive property data tracking solution for journals data for several years now in relation to the new legislation. due to the fact that most solutions were created before extensive data tracking was though of in base journal data storage.

we have been preparing for the new local legislation for several years now before returning to europe.

One of the main problems with older data solutions is the lack of transaction auditable data tracking solutions specifically for trusts.

It something we had been working on long before the lawyers decided after decades of law suits filling up the mediations of family trusts and estates to bring new legislation on the books.

oh sorry about that... yes we have a HUGE project going for the last oh i dont know... a long time to create a secure journal data monitoring solution so inter entity auto transactional model can exists and the data transfers be tracked specifically for the purpose of auditing money transferred into and out of trusts.

we wish all holders the best of luck and the very best wishes in there investing futures.

Cheers to all and best wishes. Many thanks to MR B.

oh yes i nearly forgot... not wanting to scare the horses but.. when they say they are using AI. what they mean is your on line data is being aggregated..that includes your transactional data. good luck.......

[ : ] & [ : ] ...

[Habits]

Steady on fellas with the glowing scenarios ... I desperately want a few more OCA shares but have to wait to December. I don't want to be paying more for them, please taeho ;)

[Beagle]

People are going to natter about shares mate as sure as day follows night, especially when they can sense really good gains coming in the near term.
Good though you're planning on buying in December before the Goldrush in January.

[Habits]

People are going to natter about shares mate as sure as day follows night, especially when they can sense really good gains coming in the near term.
Good though you're planning on buying in December before the Goldrush in January.
No you're free to talk about OCA as much as you want beagle, mine was a tongue in cheek comment ... i already owned and liked the company before joining ST, and appreciate your posts and enthusiasm. This year has been a profitable Rollercoaster so I intend to keep in

[Baa_Baa]

Steady on fellas with the glowing scenarios ... I desperately want a few more OCA shares but have to wait to December. I don't want to be paying more for them, please taeho ;)

Yeah me too, either that or another shock and get them much lower. Either way there’s another truckload coming in December. For this one, with a genuine long horizon, while it’s early days relatively, it really doesn’t matter too much what the buying price is. 5-10 years from now, a few 10’s of cents buying is neither here nor there.

[Beagle]

Yeah me too, either that or another shock and get them much lower. Either way there’s another truckload coming in December. For this one, with a genuine long horizon, while it’s early days relatively, it really doesn’t matter too much what the buying price is. 5-10 years from now, a few 10’s of cents buying is neither here nor there.

You're on to it mate. Summerset floated in November 2011, 9 years ago at $1.30 and look at them now !! Like you guys I have some further term deposit funds maturing in the next wee while. Not much point reinvesting for a further term at under 1% is there !!

[Cyclical]

Right peeps, I wouldn't mind adding a few more of these to my portfolio too, but I'm in a bit of a predicament, and no doubt I'll cheese some off for going "off topic" and bringing up the T word again, for which I apologise in advance, but for me it is very pertinent to this stock and this thread does have a greater portion of switched on contributors, so here goes...

So I've accumulated a good chunk of these (all relative of course) over the last few months and my average is sub 80c. I'd like to buy another parcel with some cash that I may need to pull back out of the market again in the next few weeks or months, but in the interim hoping to make a tidy little capital gain. So let's say I bought a bunch today at 136c and sold them again in 2 or 3 months for say 163, netting a tidy 27c per share / 20% gain in the process. However, because my average buy for all my OCA is 80c, does the tax man consider this as an 83c gain, upon which I'm expected to pay 33%, or 27c per share? In which case all I've done is transfer 27c from other investors to the IRD. And in the quite likely scenario I don't manage to get that 20% gain, I'd be in the red. No doubt this is a grey area and the vast majority of investors / traders probably wouldn't give it a second thought, but unfortunately I am and it's seriously stopping me from plunging deeper into this stock. Any experts out there to tell me I've got it wrong and have nothing to worry about and to just go all in?!

Thanks in advance and sorry for the "off topic" but there's nothing else to do around here until January, right?

[couta1]

Right peeps, I wouldn't mind adding a few more of these to my portfolio too, but I'm in a bit of a predicament, and no doubt I'll cheese some off for going "off topic" and bringing up the T word again, for which I apologise in advance, but for me it is very pertinent to this stock and this thread does have a greater portion of switched on contributors, so here goes...

So I've accumulated a good chunk of these (all relative of course) over the last few months and my average is sub 80c. I'd like to buy another parcel with some cash that I may need to pull back out of the market again in the next few weeks or months, but in the interim hoping to make a tidy little capital gain. So let's say I bought a bunch today at 136c and sold them again in 2 or 3 months for say 163, netting a tidy 27c per share / 20% gain in the process. However, because my average buy for all my OCA is 80c, does the tax man consider this as an 83c gain, upon which I'm expected to pay 33%, or 27c per share? In which case all I've done is transfer 27c from other investors to the IRD. And in the quite likely scenario I don't manage to get that 20% gain, I'd be in the red. No doubt this is a grey area and the vast majority of investors / traders probably wouldn't give it a second thought, but unfortunately I am and it's seriously stopping me from plunging deeper into this stock. Any experts out there to tell me I've got it wrong and have nothing to worry about and to just go all in?!

Thanks in advance and sorry for the "off topic" but there's nothing else to do around here until January, right? You could treat this latest parcel as an on/off trade (LIFO) in which case you would only pay tax on your 27c gain otherwise the tax would be payable on the difference between your average cost price of your total holding and your sale price as you have alluded to.

[Cyclical]

You could treat this latest parcel as an on/off trade (LIFO) in which case you would only pay tax on your 27c gain otherwise the tax would be payable on the difference between your average cost price of your total holding and your sale price as you have alluded to.

Thanks couta, I'll check it out.

It's going to be wet and wild today...I wonder if OCA will hit the mid 140s.