OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[trader_jackson]

Don't forget your "hard hat".......Just incase!!!

He's not off to a MET village now percy! Although might require a rain coat there as well ;)

[Joshuatree]

Buyers still re 2 to 1 and the seller @ 84c is shrinking numbers wise. Could we see 85c today?

[Beagle]

I think what we should be thinking about is, what if they move nowhere (0 growth) and nothing is done in the next year due to cost set backs of what ever you want to dream up... I think it is currently trading at a 15 pe... ie not expensive, possibly the cheapest in the sector... now this is a pretty unrealistic assumption of 0 growth, worst case instead of their being 40% growth (which I am confident they can achieve anyway), might 'only' be 20% growth... still trading very cheaply on a forward basis.

Conclusion: there is likely very limited downside, and alot of upside... all the other listed companies have a far worse 'ratio' of downside to upside than OCA, in my view.

OCA have some great villages, that are well positioned, so I am confident they can achieve their 40% growth.

Don't really want to call the promotors liars but lets just wait and see shall we. Trust is earned, not given. As to valuation and being the cheapest in the sector you should note that consensus underlying EPS for SUM is 31 cps for 2017. That's an underlying forward PE of 16.6 for a company with a compound underlying growth rate average of 48% since it listed just over five years ago...a proven performer with consistent growth. As far as I am concerned in my investment playbook there's a VERY big difference between proven consistent growth over many years and a newcomer with no history of proven growth forecasting a one-off 40%. Each to their own though and all the best to holders.

[Joshuatree]

Buyers still re 2 to 1 and the seller @ 84c is shrinking numbers wise. Could we see 85c today?

Pleasing to see we are there atm with buyers still double the sellers. All looking good at this moment in time.:t_up: I will celebrate while i can.

[macduffy]

Don't really want to call the promotors liars but lets just wait and see shall we.

I'd be surprised if the very experienced, very capable people on Oceania's board would risk their reputations by being associated with any dodgy statements in the Product Disclosure Document.

[trader_jackson]

I'd be surprised if the very experienced, very capable people on Oceania's board would risk their reputations by being associated with any dodgy statements in the Product Disclosure Document.

I would be even more surprised when they have not only had shares issued to them (maybe also brought them with their own cash in the past), but some have already brought more shares on market using their own cash, well exceeding 200 thousand dollars worth... and Oceania isn't a PE quick flip listing either (both of these points I have already mentioned).

[Joshuatree]

Nice to check my brokers latest research today to see Oceania as the no 1 pick in the sector:t_up:. Price target 97c. In depth 63 page research looks to have helped the s/p today.

[trader_jackson]

Nice to check my brokers latest research today to see Oceania as the no 1 pick in the sector:t_up:. Price target 97c. In depth 63 page research looks to have helped the s/p today.

What broker was this?
I am not even remotely surprised... market is currently massively under rating OCA... high(er) volume past 2 days as well

[Joshuatree]

Craigs ,naturally;)

[winner69]

Craigs ,naturally;)

......the stand down time after being part of the IPO over us it? - can now rave about it big time

Cynical aren't I

[Joshuatree]

No idea and i agree ,it pays to be cynical. Happy with my full IPO 79c allocation atp.

[trader_jackson]

......the stand down time after being part of the IPO over us it? - can now rave about it big time

Cynical aren't I

I remember when Forsyth Barr (the ones, and sole promoter, who got that dog arvida out there ;)) wrote up a 12 month price target of $1.04 for ARV... shares then when down to 82 cents ... before coming back to around the dollar mark about 15 months after Forsyth released their 'raving' outperform report (so I suppose they were a few months off)... don't need to talk (any more) about the leaps and bounds ARV has made since then;).

Look forward to forsyth coming out with a report on OCA (hope they do)

[Curly]

I remember when Forsyth Barr (the ones, and sole promoter, who got that dog arvida out there ;)) wrote up a 12 month price target of $1.04 for ARV... shares then when down to 82 cents ... before coming back to around the dollar mark about 15 months after Forsyth released their 'raving' outperform report (so I suppose they were a few months off)... don't need to talk (any more) about the leaps and bounds ARV has made since then;).

Look forward to forsyth coming out with a report on OCA (hope they do)

Headed north from hear it would seem based on Craigs report confirming estimates for 2017 - 2018 are in line with prospectus forecasts. Interim dividend due Feb 2018

[trader_jackson]

Headed north from hear it would seem based on Craigs report confirming estimates for 2017 - 2018 are in line with prospectus forecasts. Interim dividend due Feb 2018

You'd think so, someone seems to be buying up large this past week... underlying PE of 9 in 2018 is well well below what any other listed retirement company is currently trading at, assuming of course that they hit 2018 targets (and don't miss, or exceed them)... I would almost be tempted to say OCA will be the best performer, over the period 1 year from it's listing open day (at an open of 82 cents).
Like ARV, future NZX 50 company as well (possibly within 2 years)

[trader_jackson]

When the other 4 operators went down, OCA went up equalling its record high of 85 cents... and on good volume... for the first time in a while buys now significantly outweight sells... hmm interesting times

[RupertBear]

Bought a few last week after reading Craigs research report and happy to hold and see how they go.

I notice Craigs went from Overweight to Neutral on SUM today so maybe sum have moved over from there :confused:

[trader_jackson]

Bought a few last week after reading Craigs research report and happy to hold and see how they go.

I notice Craigs went from Overweight to Neutral on SUM today so maybe sum have moved over from there :confused:

Yet SUM is lowest it has been all year... everybody on the SUM thread knows how much of a bargain SUM is, so Craigs must have got this wrong big time eh... did they say why they downgraded SUM stock?

[RupertBear]

Property price risks, but still positive long term

[couta1]

Bought a few last week after reading Craigs research report and happy to hold and see how they go.

I notice Craigs went from Overweight to Neutral on SUM today so maybe sum have moved over from there :confused: Don't worry about fickle brokers young bear, you could often be just as accurate tossing a coin. Remember they clip the ticket at both ends.

[dabsman]

Hey guys trying to figure out how many cps the first dividend will be if prospectus numbers are met?

[King1212]

Far out! The force is strong today with heaps of SP condition. Must be oz investors got sick of thier **** retirement stocks..!

[tread]

Bought a parcel in the last few days, as I was looking for an opportunity to get into the sector. Let's see what the results bring.
Relatively new here, so greetings to all.

[whatsup]

Very strong buying again today over 1 mil in the first hour, I think the first report is due out shortly and Im picking Mr Market is picking a good result hence the strong buying of the last few days.

[winner69]

Very strong buying again today over 1 mil in the first hour, I think the first report is due out shortly and Im picking Mr Market is picking a good result hence the strong buying of the last few days.

All this recent 'strong buying' not moving the share price ....not enough volume ......hmm


Spose I just have to be patient ......hopefully not too patient.

[King1212]

All this recent 'strong buying' not moving the share price ....not enough volume ......hmm


Spose I just have to be patient ......hopefully not too patient.

a lot of off market.....

[whatsup]

All this recent 'strong buying' not moving the share price ....not enough volume ......hmm


Spose I just have to be patient ......hopefully not too patient.

Yeh winner but Im thinking that McQ are feeding and controlling the market until oca is results driven !

[trader_jackson]

Trading in OCA shares in the last month has been interesting, while the share price initially rose strongly (from 82 cents, to the 86 cents it is at now), for the past couple weeks it has been pretty stagnant, nearly always at 86 cents.
Volumes have nearly always been around a million or more (fairly significant I think), but the sells at 86 cents always seem to be around 400k, while the buys at 85 always seem to be 700k (with the total buys always being a few 100k above the total sells).

Looks like someone is definitely drip feeding the market... they aren't too happy selling below 86 cents... while buyers aren't to happy paying more than 85 cents... bit of a stand off is occurring and has been for a good couple weeks now... yet the reasonable volumes, sometimes those volumes are enough to also have the highest value of the 5 listed operators, which is even more interesting given the amount of free float in OCA currently, and the market cap (2nd lowest).

No worries. Annual results coming in about 2 weeks, will bowl over any and all sellers below 90 cents ;)

[Beagle]

I suppose inevitably I must fess up and admit I bought a few of these a while back at 83c mainly as a bit of an each way bet in this sector on the off chance they actually make their forecast target for FY18. Not a high conviction holding as you can see from the tone of this post but I have a few bob on this horse and it might run okay.

[cyclist]

I suppose inevitably I must fess up and admit I bought a few of these a while back at 83c mainly as a bit of an each way bet in this sector on the off chance they actually make their forecast target for FY18. Not a high conviction holding as you can see from the tone of this post but I have a few bob on this horse and it might run okay.

Even Beagle suffers from FOMO!

[sb9]

Even Beagle suffers from FOMO!

Classic...lol :)

[winner69]

Classic...lol :)

Not FOMO - just an astute play by Mr Beagle

Potentially good/great short/medium returns with low risk.

[whatsup]

Trading in OCA shares in the last month has been interesting, while the share price initially rose strongly (from 82 cents, to the 86 cents it is at now), for the past couple weeks it has been pretty stagnant, nearly always at 86 cents.
Volumes have nearly always been around a million or more (fairly significant I think), but the sells at 86 cents always seem to be around 400k, while the buys at 85 always seem to be 700k (with the total buys always being a few 100k above the total sells).

Looks like someone is definitely drip feeding the market... they aren't too happy selling below 86 cents... while buyers aren't to happy paying more than 85 cents... bit of a stand off is occurring and has been for a good couple weeks now... yet the reasonable volumes, sometimes those volumes are enough to also have the highest value of the 5 listed operators, which is even more interesting given the amount of free float in OCA currently, and the market cap (2nd lowest).

No worries. Annual results coming in about 2 weeks, will bowl over any and all sellers below 90 cents ;)

Trader, As Ive said what you say is correct but supported, sold bid by mcQuaries the promoters of the float, I think they still have some hang over stock which they are dripping onto the market, the first financial report will tell all and set the pace for the medium term future. IMO they
would not want to disappoint with them !!

[trader_jackson]

Trader, As Ive said what you say is correct but supported, sold bid by mcQuaries the promoters of the float, I think they still have some hang over stock which they are dripping onto the market, the first financial report will tell all and set the pace for the medium term future. IMO they
would not want to disappoint with them !!

Hmm possibly, but from what we have heard/discussed on this thread the IPO itself was heavily oversubscribed, so I am not sure where all these sells are coming from... almost as if someone is playing with the market.

[winner69]

Hmm possibly, but from what we have heard/discussed on this thread the IPO itself was heavily oversubscribed, so I am not sure where all these sells are coming from... almost as if someone is playing with the market.

Is that something to worry about?

[trader_jackson]

Is that something to worry about?

hmm possibly... then again, annual results will come out showing what the prospectus forecast, and all will be well (one hopes);)

[Benny1]

Is that something to worry about?

Hope not! I have just jumped aboard this one!
Could be an interesting ride, tho long term should be ok.:t_up:

[winner69]

hmm possibly... then again, annual results will come out showing what the prospectus forecast, and all will be well (one hopes);)

There can't possibly be any surprises so soon after IPO can there?

All on track ......no worries

[percy]

There can't possibly be any surprises so soon after IPO can there?

All on track ......no worries

Keep "the faith".....lol.

[Bjauck]

I visited Oceania Elmwood recently. Auckland botanic garden with complementary mobility scooters just over the road.

A good community apparently. Care facilities on site. They have quite a few new units there at competitive prices. They look well-designed and many have views towards Bombay.

[whatsup]

.78 pushing .88 and steady buying = a good sign.imo.

[King1212]

Received Craig investor news...recommended OCA...bought in this morning...so let see eh..

[trader_jackson]

hmm possibly... then again, annual results will come out showing what the prospectus forecast, and all will be well (one hopes);)

People cleared out the 86 cent 'road block' today, and even the 87 cents... nobody selling till 88 now with buys way outweighing the sells... maybe OCA will be valued something more realistic, like in the 90's, by the end of the week?

Only so much the 'big guys can feed the market' right?

Disclosure: I hold, and am surprised at a number of others who have, mostly recently, come out disclosing their holdings... then again, who could resist a supposed forward PE of just 9?

Probably still can't count it as one of the retirement operators, despite their impressive development pipeline, like old Arvida, one would assume that is still reserved for "the big 3"

[macduffy]

Keep up the good work, t j. There's probably still a few out there who havn't been convinced yet that OCA is the real deal!

;)

Disc: Been there since the IPO.

[trader_jackson]

Wow, another day solid day for OCA, nobody selling till 90 cents now.

Well done to all the holders, less than 2 weeks till full year results are released.

Also something to note: OCA is now (finally) trading above Forward FY18 PE of 10, I think it is now a huge 10.6 (still the cheapest in the sector by miles*, another 10 cents and we might have something closer to fair value... which is still lower than the top end of what they were trying to flog it for in the first place)

[Beagle]

http://www.oceaniahealthcare.co.nz/retirement-villages/getting-started Fixed fees for life for independent retirement units...

[peat]

http://www.oceaniahealthcare.co.nz/retirement-villages/getting-started Fixed fees for life for independent retirement units...

lol at the marketing fee when its so easy to find another Occupier

quite brutal really huh in that example 67% of original purchase price is returned with potential refurbishment costs additional, which may not be insignificant

But, I recognise that what is really happening here (and other Operators) is that retirees are maintaining a good quality of their lifestyle by spending the inheritance. Their right.

[Lewylewylewy]

It's only inheritance money when you die. Until then it's your money. 😋

[percy]

It's only inheritance money when you die. Until then it's your money. ��

I must tell the daughters that.!!!..lol.

[flyer]

My mother has been in an Oceania Retirement home for 3 years now, recently has moved into the 24/7 hospital care due to health. I have nothing but praise for the service, the facility, the nurse care, the kindness all staff show, the food etc etc. Its not cheap, the fees are up there but I think warrants the care she gets.
Disclaimer: Now own shares and will top up as a long term hold.

[BlackPeter]

Anybody noticed what happened to the OCA SP this morning? If you hold ... have a look and enjoy! It looks like there is plenty of demand for the shares but hardly any supply ...

[whatsup]

Anybody noticed what happened to the OCA SP this morning? If you hold ... have a look and enjoy! It looks like there is plenty of demand for the shares but hardly any supply ...

BP, I was told that there wouldn't be any share movement until the first results were released/known and with todays movement the upcoming results must be known by insiders hence the todays movements = LEAKY BOAT, not good imo !!

[Beagle]

It's only inheritance money when you die. Until then it's your money. ��
Exactly. I am happy to accept that OCA have their own well defined market niche especially with late stage care. Will they attain their FY18 forecast ? Time will tell. Disc: I increased my speculative punt on this horse on Friday at 89 cps.

[trader_jackson]

I am not surprised (still not even that close to Craig's price target)... when this listed, at an unusually low price (very close to the bottom end), with seemingly high demand, there was alot of skepticism from many on here (ironically some of them, now, hold) ... the whole PE thing (even though it wasn't a PE listing really), housing market slowing down, apparently unrealistic targets, the terrible top heavy management, the apparent wages debacle, even the 'industry insiders' on this thread didn't like it (like when ARV listed, and probably to busy buying sum other shares at $5.40), among many other things...

Here we are today barely 2 months on from OCA's listing day... how things have changed:t_up:
[sum other companies are trading 10% lower, while OCA is trading 10% higher]

Disclosure: happy holding since IPO day at 82 cents

[winner69]

BP, I was told that there wouldn't be any share movement until the first results were released/known and with todays movement the upcoming results must be known by insiders hence the todays movements = LEAKY BOAT, not good imo !!

Nope, just many Sharetraders backing the truck up to get in before the masses.....and a few others

[Beagle]

I am not surprised (still not even that close to Craig's price target)... when this listed, at an unusually low price (very close to the bottom end), with seemingly high demand, there was alot of skepticism from many on here (ironically some of them, now, hold) ... the whole PE thing (even though it wasn't a PE listing really), housing market slowing down, apparently unrealistic targets, the terrible top heavy management, the apparent wages debacle, even the 'industry insiders' on this thread didn't like it (like when ARV listed, and probably to busy buying sum other shares at $5.40), among many other things...

Here we are today barely 2 months on from OCA's listing day... how things have changed:t_up:
[sum other companies are trading 10% lower, while OCA is trading 10% higher]

Disclosure: happy holding since IPO day at 82 cents

Back tested the IPO float price and been in a steady uptrend since. You shouldn't be surprised some investors wanted to see market evidence and confirmation of how a horse runs at the trials before jumping on board.

[percy]

My mother has been in an Oceania Retirement home for 3 years now, recently has moved into the 24/7 hospital care due to health. I have nothing but praise for the service, the facility, the nurse care, the kindness all staff show, the food etc etc. Its not cheap, the fees are up there but I think warrants the care she gets.
Disclaimer: Now own shares and will top up as a long term hold.

Thank you for sharing.
Pleasing to know your mother is in the right place.

[Snow Leopard]

I was all lined up to buy either these at $0.86 a pop or PPH at $1.65 ago last week and then unexpected circumstances got in the way.

Either way I would have done OK in the short-term.

So the $10,000 question is does $0.91 represent a safe entry point into this?

I will be at my abacus for the rest of the day trying to answer that one!

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[tipsy]

Yeah I jumped on board at listing for 0.82, also wanted to top up last week for 0.86, cleared some funds but then left it a little too late.

[tipsy]

Was trying to decide on topping up on OCA or SUM, ended up missing the opportunity for both.

[misterx]

Never too late if you know what to believe in

[Lewylewylewy]

Never too late if you know what to believe in

I disagree. I think that timing your buy in is significant, getting it wrong can mean owning good shares for a good sign months without earning a profit.

[percy]

At present time OCA is trading at 91 cents.
The share price on the chart is in a very strong upward trend.
Craigs have at target price of 97 cents.
Most probably still the best value in the retirement sector.
Depending on the next announcement, I feel Craigs target price will be exceded in the not to distant future.

[janner]

OK .. Rub it in percy.. I know I arrived a little late .86
Just being careful.. :-)))

[percy]

OK .. Rub it in percy.. I know I arrived a little late .86
Just being careful.. :-)))
Late?
You are just showing good judgement,making sure the share price is/was going in the right direction,before buying.

[janner]

Late?
You are just showing good judgement,making sure the share price is/was going in the right direction,before buying.

So true... :-)) Now I find the truck does not have enough fuel to back up :-((((

[Benny1]

So true... :-)) Now I find the truck does not have enough fuel to back up :-((((

Must admit I didn't feel the need to rush into this one... especially after ASB Securities shut me out at the IPO...

So have watched on the sidelines and finally jumped in last week at .86c...
Looking forward to being in for a long long time.....

Now just need to find that truck.... never mind some fuel :confused:

[Lawstudent]

Hi All,

New to the Website, I have watched with great interest as this share has performed and enjoyed reading this thread. Looking forward to the results on the 27th if my memory serves me right.

I purchased with the IPO full allotment at 0.79c through Craigs (small parcel but decent enough for someone starting out). Target of 97c from Craigs and 95c from FNZC.

I also hold ETF's and contribute to Mygrowth through Craigs as well.

General question - does OCA have reinvestment program or will it be deposited in bank account?

Thanks and looking forward to reading and following the thread.

[BlackPeter]

Hi All,

New to the Website, I have watched with great interest as this share has performed and enjoyed reading this thread. Looking forward to the results on the 27th if my memory serves me right.

I purchased with the IPO full allotment at 0.79c through Craigs (small parcel but decent enough for someone starting out). Target of 97c from Craigs and 95c from FNZC.

I also hold ETF's and contribute to Mygrowth through Craigs as well.

General question - does OCA have reinvestment program or will it be deposited in bank account?

Thanks and looking forward to reading and following the thread.

Welcome to the forum ... and looks like you timed your purchase well ;);

I don't think that OCA announced yet a DRP ... however - there will be plenty of time to subscribe if & when they do. No worries - just make sure Computershare have your up to date bank details (and that's as well the people who will offer you to choose a DRP if one is on offer).

Stupid question - do you intend to change your pen name when you are done with university :sleep:?

[Lawstudent]

Hi BP,

Thanks for the update, will make sure to read all the docs as they are sent out!

Arh I am finished and recently qualified to boot. The name has always stuck on a few forums I have been in! Perhaps I could change to law master?

Cheers

[Beagle]

Hi BP,

Thanks for the update, will make sure to read all the docs as they are sent out!

Arh I am finished and recently qualified to boot. The name has always stuck on a few forums I have been in! Perhaps I could change to law master?

Cheers

Looking back on my career I realise I started learning after I qualified...welcome to the forum.

[winner69]

So the key things we need to see from the results commentary is whether they are on track to complete the big increase in new units in FY18 over FY17 .....with higher development margins as well.

Not expecting to make any more profit from the care bit - FY18 depends on property development.

Looking forward - hope the share price is over a $1 by then

[winner69]

Thursday could be an exciting day .....esp as a bright outlook for F18 will signalled

Might need to 'top up' before then ....chance if missing out on the cheap ones if wait until Friday.

[trader_jackson]

Thursday could be an exciting day .....esp as a bright outlook for F18 will signalled

Might need to 'top up' before then ....chance if missing out on the cheap ones if wait until Friday.

You could be on to something there winner... Will Wednesday be the last day we see the share price under the $1 mark?

[tipsy]

Thursday could be an exciting day .....esp as a bright outlook for F18 will signalled

Might need to 'top up' before then ....chance if missing out on the cheap ones if wait until Friday.

Was thinking the same, so topped up last week.

[Beagle]

Thursday could be an exciting day .....esp as a bright outlook for F18 will signalled

Might need to 'top up' before then ....chance if missing out on the cheap ones if wait until Friday.

A source tells me they DO have a LOT of land available to be developed. Got my hungry snout into a few more last week.

[Joshuatree]

This is the listing I alluded to a while back on the Sum thread they won't need to buy land as they can build onto many of their current 50 plus facilities.

Yawn,2nd post on the threads.

[Joshuatree]

I'd prefer to see the full financials before commenting in detail mate but those sort of numbers don't normally go together unless the company has been trading at massive losses over many years. Those debt level's appear to be an extremely serious concern. If a company has net liabilities of $132.9m how are they still a going concern ? How debt and shareholders advances could have ever got that high is what I'm especially interested in and most especially what this says about managements ability.
I'd speculate a recapitalisation is desperately needed and Macquarie's could be in for quite a haircut on their shareholders advances.
Caveat Emptor on this one, definitely one to watch for some creative revaluation of assets. :eek2:

Back when you were doing this hatchet job Roger

[Beagle]

Back when you were doing this hatchet job Roger

Ladies and Gentlemen - That was a most disingenuous post by Joshuatree. It should also be noted that I prefaced that comment with the disclaimer that "I'd prefer to see the full financials in detail" That post was made on 19 October 2014, approx. 2 1/2 years before the company was listed and its balance sheet could have been dramatically restructured in that time. Most people realise JT and myself don't have a great record of getting on well on this forum and this sort of deliberately calculated disingenuous post, (a blatant attempt to discredit / undermine and be argumentative) is a fine example of why.

In any boxing ring of decent reputation that would be ruled a low blow.

[Joshuatree]

The threads are all there Roger. good to take responsibility for ones self and maybe review and correct as one goes if one knows how to review ones own actions.I hope you're not selling Roger ; following a tip off from your insider ahead of results? Pumping and dumping happens everywhere. I'm sensitive to any possible influencing by anybody on here and elsewhere one can't trust anybody but make ones own careful judgements. Still holding my full applications since IPO. Ive been consistent in my sentiment.

[Bjauck]

The threads are all there Roger. good to take responsibility for ones self and maybe review and correct as one goes if one knows how to review ones own actions.... Surely it behoves us all to change our opinions over time, with changing circumstances and new events. To me, it seems that Beagle seems to sniff out a change when it reaches his nose!

[whatsup]

Strong buying right on close here in N Z , will it carry on in Aust for the next hour, ( TWT ) time will tell.

[King1212]

Strong buying right on close here in N Z , will it carry on in Aust for the next hour, ( TWT ) time will tell.


What to carry,....no seller over oz market..none...

[whatsup]

Big close on OCA today , I wonder if the momentium will continue into Aust for the next hour.

[King1212]

Big close on OCA today , I wonder if the momentium will continue into Aust for the next hour.

I know what u meant, but the depth shows no sellers......there are a lot of buyers....

[whatsup]

Very interesting bearing in mind that the full years ann is not due until Thurs 27 th July, theres more support to come if there is a "good news " leak from inside !

[trader_jackson]

Post #162 by Roger / beagle day after IPO day (5/5/2017 11am) "You actually believe their forecast ? Don't you think its a little odd they'd bring this to market so close to their end of year for 31 May 2017 ? Guess why ? So they can say, look, we got that forecast right. It's the 40% growth in underlying earnings for FY18 that I for one am taking with a grain of salt. Call me a hardened cynic if you like, I don't honestly care but they've been trying for years to float this thing and if they hadn't of forecast 40% growth nobody would have been interested.
Huge vested interest to make that FY18 growth forecast ! Tegal or Feltex Mk2 in my opinion."

beagle, do you still believe they will miss their FY18 forecast?

For me, their commentary on FY18 will be more important than this years result (which should really be, as you have mentioned, in the bag)

(Disclosure: I have from day 1, which is also when I brought, as mentioned)

[Lawstudent]

Hi All,

With results on Thursday, could I ask the main things that will continue growth?
Is it?
- 2018 Outlook? IE how many units / beds they will be looking to fill for the upcoming year? If yes, how do we gauge this, is it based on projections or demand? (As a side note, I hear them advertising on NEWSTALKZB from time to time for retirees).
-Progress of future developments?

Issues that reduce growth
- Impact of the pay rise rise from public to private sector. Has this flowed across to Oceania?
- Property market slowing down?
- Bit of an outsider, but could the change of govt effect OCA's future? IE TOP's equity party?

Also, with FY Results, is this when they announce upcoming DIV yield?

Thanks to any who answer. Still trying to become a 'novice trader'.

[777]

Dividend yield is not able to be announced. They can announce the amount of dividend they are going to pay and give some guidance to future payments but yield is a calculation of dividend versus share price and thus changes everytime the price of the share changes.

[Beagle]

IPO forecasts deserve to be treated with extra special caution because companies have 1. No demonstrated listed track record upon which investors can assess the veracity of their previous forecasting and 2. IPO forecasts are made with the primary intention of attracting investors and therefore promotors have a huge vested interest in putting the brightest lipstick on.

IF they can prove up the veracity of their business model over the next 2-3 years there is the potential for a PE re-rating. I deemed it prudent to wait until after the IPO to see where the market really felt the stock and to see if an upward trajectory could be sustained. It back tested the IPO price and has moved up. IPO investors took an extra risk and in this case have earned an extra return to date however this isn't always the case. Risk and reward go hand and hand. I deem this unproven stock to be much riskier than a proven performer like SUM which is why I have significantly more capital invested in a well proven rapidly growing company like SUM.
I trust that answers your question TJ. I agree that the commentary will be more important than the result itself. We could in my opinion see it move up to a PE of about 12 over the next 12 months IF they prove up their forecast.

[winner69]

Hopefully $1 plus tomorrow - better to have a stock with $ signs in front of it's share pirice to give it greater credibility (punters wary of those priced just in cents?)

So with the expected good announcement on Thursday it should take off .....wonder how high!

[Beagle]

Yeap...its still under $1 now so it's still really, really cheap

[winner69]

F18 earnings growth is to mainly driven by 1) new unit sales going from forecast 33 this year to 84 and 2) resales going from 87 to 113 .....along with improved development margins

Big growth numbers = big increase in share price

So Thursday we should see numbers close to the 33 and 87 stated above and close to forecast underlying ebitda of $44m and underlying npat of $33m

Then its all go for F18

[Beagle]

Yeap Trader Jackson says its only on a PE of 9 so if they can progress their business plan as intended we could see it rerated up towards sector average PE quicker than maybe you or I even expect. A lot of potential that's for sure, lets hope they can crystalise that potential going forward.

[trader_jackson]

Yeap Trader Jackson says its only on a PE of 9 so if they can progress their business plan as intended we could see it rerated up towards sector average PE quicker than maybe you or I even expect. A lot of potential that's for sure, lets hope they can crystalise that potential going forward.

Was listed at 9 yes, as mentioned on 14-07-2017, 06:26 PM (post 294) it finally made it past 10, still crazy low really.

Fast forward to today, another day of large volume, nobody selling till 97 cents

Some say tomorrow might be the last day OCA is under the dollar mark ;)
(Who are these crazy people still selling under $1?)

[winner69]

Below graphic is the 'promise' that Oceania have made for F18

After hardly growing ebitda in F17 it's going to skyrocket in F18 - as can be seen by selling heaps more new and used retirement units. Stuff all extra ebitda from looking after (care) oldies

Off course they will keep this 'promise' .....

[trader_jackson]

Below graphic is the 'promise' that Oceania have made for F18

After hardly growing ebitda in F17 it's going to skyrocket in F18 - as can be seen by selling heaps more new and used retirement units. Stuff all extra ebitda from looking after (care) oldies

Off course they will keep this 'promise' .....

Imagine if even this years EBITDA were better than prospectus?
Imagine if they not only reaffirmed next years EBITDA but upgraded it?
Doubt it, but just imagine.

[winner69]

Imagine if even this years EBITDA were better than prospectus?
Imagine if they not only reaffirmed next years EBITDA but upgraded it?
Doubt it, but just imagine.

Yesmate, just imagine if they did

From a 'small base' even another 5 or so more unit sales can make a difference

Just as well all this talk of property market collapse not affecting Oceania eh

[trader_jackson]

Yesmate, just imagine if they did

From a 'small base' even another 5 or so more unit sales can make a difference

Just as well all this talk of property market collapse not affecting Oceania eh

Property market collapse? Oceania, like sum other listed operators set their own prices anyway?
Price marker, not taker I'm sure... No* debt, No worries

[Beagle]

Property market collapse? Oceania, like sum other listed operators set their own prices anyway?
Price marker, not taker I'm sure... No* debt, No worries

All good, should be up to a PE of 15-17 this time next year, SUM be back to 18-20 by then, heaps of profits all round. No worries. Last chance to buy at under $1 tomorrow morning. ...might have to get some more myself

[Beagle]

going...going...

[winner69]

going...going...

........heading to $1.20 .......then $1.50 .....then $2.00 .....faster than we think I reckon

[trader_jackson]

........heading to $1.20 .......then $1.50 .....then $2.00 .....faster than we think I reckon

You think it could give Heartland a run for its money?
Arvida seems to have run out of steam lately...

[percy]

You think it could give Heartland a run for its money?
Arvida seems to have run out of steam lately...

Those who hold both HBL and OCA are "well positioned.".................lol.

[winner69]

Seeing the listing was so close to the end of the financial year one would have to assume the f17 forecast in the IPO documents were well and truly locked away ....and with a few extra sales than anticipated in May and a bit of fine tuning around the edges of the accounts they will exceeded

So expect a good result tomorrow = gives management credibility and the market confidence PLUS indications if not an outright revised guidance that F18 will be as good as or much better than forecast = share price to rocket ahead

Yes t_j .......just imagine eh

[trader_jackson]

Some sellers are raining on OCA's parade... must be a bit uneasy about tomorrows result.

On the flip side, they could be very disapointed they sold at 96 cents ish come this time tomorrow... some might say the sellers today at 96 cents might be a bit less 'well positioned' tomorrow.

[trader_jackson]

I was all lined up to buy either these at $0.86 a pop or PPH at $1.65 ago last week and then unexpected circumstances got in the way.

Either way I would have done OK in the short-term.

So the $10,000 question is does $0.91 represent a safe entry point into this?

I will be at my abacus for the rest of the day trying to answer that one!

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Nearly 10 days ago you posted this paper tiger? is the abacus working a bit slowly?
(I know mine sometimes doesn't work at all...)

Did 91 cents represent a safe entry point?
(the $10,000 question, might now be the $10,549 question...)

[Snow Leopard]

Nearly 10 days ago you posted this paper tiger? is the abacus working a bit slowly?
(I know mine sometimes doesn't work at all...)

Did 91 cents represent a safe entry point?
(the $10,000 question, might now be the $10,549 question...)

It's a long story tj, but I am not on the share register at present.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[dabsman]

The big day today. I've bought at 83 and 86 so it is now my biggest holding. Whatever the result I'll be drinking...

[winner69]

Exceeded IPO forecasts as expected

Company worth a lot more now -

In the year ended 31 May 2017, reported net profit after tax of $44.9m was ahead of the $25.3m forecast in the Company’s Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) due to a significant increase in the valuation of Oceania’s care and retirement village assets. Total assets increased by $135m to $918m following a material increase in development capital expenditure and acquisition of sites, and net debt fell to $84m (from $274m) resulting in low gearing of 15%.

[winner69]

Bloody high development margins - over 27% - wow

[Lawstudent]

Hi All,

Winner69 - have results already been announced?

[winner69]

Hi All,

Winner69 - have results already been announced?

Yes - great presentation pack as well

Nothing can go wrong for F18

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/262295.pdf

[Beagle]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/262295.pdf

Have to say I am very very impressed. Key metric for me (cash flow is the lifeblood of business), operating cash flow $38.9m v IPO forecast $31.8m a substantial beat there.
Development margin is also deeply impressive.
NTA is 92 cps so SP only at a very small premium to NTA unlike some, (notice how I avoided using SUM) other companies in this sector.
As expected they have used the vast majority of IPO proceeds to dramatically reduce their gearing which is vastly changed from when this company originally was looking at floating in 2014. With their dramatically restructured balance sheet and very modest gearing they're extremely well positioned to execute and beat FY18 forecast in my opinion. I can see a significant expansion in the PE if they continue to execute well.
Winning the care award a very nice touch. Very happy to be on board buying at 82, 86, 89, 91 and 96 yesterday. Disc: Will buy lots more if this stays under $1.00 today.

[percy]

Incredible result.
Development margin 24.4% as per page 16, or in plain language average devt margin per sale $100.4 k page 14.

[Joshuatree]

Very depressing; w ere TJ and i two of very few taking up the IPO ; surely there must be more.? Be good to hear from you I know a few who sold and Im not trying to keep up with the toaster crowd (in and out and in agin?) and many more scared off?.I hope not.

[Beagle]

Very very strong pipeline of consented developments augers extremely well for profit growth going forward.

[Lawstudent]

I really need to learn how to read financial reports better. My basic 1c, profit seems to be up, EBIT above IPO forecast and revenue above forecast which should equate to higher price?? Occupancy seems good. However the thing that stuck most in my head was page 18 (story about the cat), good to see some positive stories coming out of the place.

Also like that they have a employee share scheme as well.

[peat]

agree its good
exceeding forecast NPAT is mostly revals though..... (just sayin)

[Beagle]

agree its good
exceeding forecast NPAT is mostly revals though..... (just sayin)

Very strong cash flow beat and development margin is very strong and NTA only just below SP...just sayin

[winner69]

Very depressing; w ere TJ and i two of very few taking up the IPO ; surely there must be more.? Be good to hear from you I know a few who sold and Im not trying to keep up with the toaster crowd (in and out and in agin?) and many more scared off?.I hope not.

Yep ...you and t_j are real gurus recognising this in early stages and worth the skiting.

I think the toaster brigade are going to have the toast burnt to cinders - its not going to pop up for a long time.

[Beagle]

Yep ...you and t_j are real gurus recognising this in early stages and worth the skiting.

I think the toaster brigade are going to have the toast burnt to cinders - its not going to pop up for a long time.

Those canny investors who let it back-test the IPO price and establish a support level and uptrend and then have doubled down twice into a confirmed uptrend have done extremely well too :)

[trader_jackson]

Well... this years results were even better than expected, which is a nice surprise given how close to end of financial year when they were listed.

I could go on about how great the operating cash flows are, how great the development pipleine is looking, the nice EBITDA etc etc (slide 4 of the results presentation is real nice by the way - although I did note expenses were a bit higher than expected...)

But I'll cut to the case... the words I liked most are "we are well placed to achieve our forecast in 2018 and continue to create long term value for our shareholders" you can almost smell the upgrade/beat of FY18 coming (not just profit wise, but dividend wise as well)

Maybe I was right that yesterday was the last chance you could buy these under $1? Todays results would certainly suggest it should be

[BlackPeter]

Like it - looks like the market is opening above $1 (the morning auction sits currently at 101) and hardly any sellers up to 110. Could turn into an interesting day ...

Looks like holders just found another company helping them to be "well positioned" (Sorry, I know Percy should have said that ... but maybe he has?).

Can't understand people complaining that there are no bargains anymore on the NZX ...

[fiasco]

Pretty impressive, wanted to see the results before jumping in. Now in before it jumps past $1.00.

Given SUM is being shorted and being pretty quiet, I've sold sum from SUM and diverted funds to OCA.

Well done on identifying the potential Trader_Jackson

[whatsup]

Not a great response from MR Market - early days yet while the instos digest it and after lunch there should be better response , didn't hit $1.00 ( yet ) .99 high !

Is the current price already built into it ATM ?

[winner69]

Those canny investors who let it back-test the IPO price and establish a support level and uptrend and then have doubled down twice into a confirmed uptrend have done extremely well too :)

Yep, took a fair bit of risk out of the equation eh ......the derisking cost minimal in the big picture.

Had to wait see what the sentiment really was around this stock, because as we know it's sentiment that really drives share price (often more so than company performance)

Nothing to stop punters getting even more positive over Oceania

[trader_jackson]

I am surprised at the strength of the sellers, they've come out dumping (sort of)... clearly, missed the results announcement and just like the 'high' price.
No doubt they will dry up eventually, after all, you can only sell so much.

[winner69]

Not a great response from MR Market - early days yet while the instos digest it and after lunch there should be better response , didn't hit $1.00 ( yet ) .99 high !

Up 10% over the last week so a good run in

As you say the big boys will do their sums and we'll see where they go .....it'll be them rather than mere mortals like you and me that move the price in the next few weeks

[winner69]

I am surprised at the strength of the sellers, they've come out dumping (sort of)... clearly, missed the results announcement and just like the 'high' price.
No doubt they will dry up eventually, after all, you can only sell so much.

The toaster lot .... buying the rumour selling the fact ....whatever the rumour was.

[sb9]

The toaster lot .... buying the rumour selling the fact ....whatever the rumour was.

Could be that market has already priced in this result perhaps?

[777]

Could be that market has already priced in this result perhaps?

And were some expecting a dividend this quarter?

[sb9]

And were some expecting a dividend this quarter?

Yes that too...

[Hoop]

Asking a bit much guys...OCA has had a stella run since listing against the downtrending backdrop of the other healthcare providers..Some negative pressures out there atm ..flattening out of residential property prices...wage increases for healthcare workers...and not sure about building supply shortages causing delays which seems to be hitting some other building firms..We may see some Political bantering in this housing area as the election gets closer..these are all uncertainities......The sector RYM SUM MET all slightly down this morning...

[Snow Leopard]

Take the profit number subtract the property revaluations and you have a nice loss.

Can see why they needed to get the debt/interest payment down to make this look reasonable going forward.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Jantar]

Take the profit number subtract the property revaluations and you have a nice loss.

Can see why they needed to get the debt/interest payment down to make this look reasonable going forward.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
But if you are going to subtract the property revaluations then you also need to remove the other costs associated with those revaluations. Fortunately OCA do that for us on page 14 of their presentation and show underlying NPAT of $13.4M

[Beagle]

Strip out revaluations and SUM made losses in the early days too when their SP was $1.40 ~ 5 years ago. Par for the course for a young company starting to get into their stride with developments activities.

[winner69]

Strip out revaluations and SUM made losses in the early days too when their SP was $1.40 ~ 5 years ago. Par for the course for a young company starting to get into their stride with developments activities.

Back out all revaluations SUM profitability still marginal .....but company still worth heaps more (nta) than when floated

[winner69]

Atleast the share price is ahead of what it was yesterday - that's good

[Beagle]

Over 4m shares changed hands. Profit takers will run out of scrip soon enough, no worries.

[trader_jackson]

Over 4m shares changed hands. Profit takers will run out of scrip soon enough, no worries.

Very true, you can only sell so much... Mr Market will realise how undervalued OCA is eventually... (maybe today was the last day under $1?)

[trader_jackson]

To give you an idea of how ARV and Oceania have (or likely to) change a few years after listing:

Arvida:
Prospectus (December 2014 - 17 villages):
Care Beds: 952
Retirement Units: 812 ('high margin' Independent living apartments: 46%)
54% / 46% split
1764 Total

March 2017 - 26 Villages
Care Beds: 1461
Retirement Units: 1285 ('high margin' Independent living apartments: 54%)
53% / 47% split
2746 Total

March 2019 Forsyth Forecast - 26 Villages
Care Beds: 1511
Retirement Units: 1517
50% / 50% split
3028 total

Oceania:
Prospectus (March 2017):
Care Beds: 2638
Care Suites/Care Studios: 241 ('high margin' care beds)
Retirement Units: 1071 ('high margin' Independent living apartments: 100% - I think)
67% / 6% / 27% split
3950 total

March 2019: (Total Consented or Under Construction)
Care Beds: 2284
Care Suites/Care Studios: 580 ('high margin' care beds)
Retirement Units: 1669 ('high margin' Independent living apartments: 100% - I think)
50% / 13% / 37% split
4533 total

March 2021?: (Total Consented, Under Construction and in Planning and Consenting phase)
Care Beds: 2284
Care Suites/Care Studios: 877 ('high margin' care beds)
Retirement Units: 2050 ('high margin' Independent living apartments: 100% - I think)
44% / 17% / 39% split
5211 total

Perhaps interestingly, Oceania has a higher, current, percent of independent 'high margin' units that Arvida, although note that Arvida are beginning to roll out/convert care beds into higher margin Care Suites/Care Studios like Oceania (ie putting an ORA over the care bed)

Conclusion: It is clear both Oceania and Arvida are moving away, in % terms, from a 'care heavy' model, while maintaining a great continuum of care, something that will become increasingly important. Greenfield development is only a matter of time for both Arvida and Oceania... both respective prospectus have mentioned this, yet was somehow missed when Arvida went public (and its share price proceeded to the low 80's, before becoming the best performer by a mile the following year).

If you aren't interested, please pass this information onto your brokers asap, preferably mentioning that the price is far to expensive... that way I might pick up a bargain ;) :t_up:

Posted this back in the dark old days (early april) when all anyone and everyone (including the supposed insiders) were doing was talking about was how bad/inefficient management, how the wage rises are going to kill them, how they surely couldn't achieve what they had laid out in the PDS and a bunch of other things which seemed to be (pretty) fake news (later confirmed to be by the share price I suppose, now 23% ahead of IPO price in less than 3 months).

I saw an interesting slide (slide 6) that looked very similar to my analysis/assumptions, the numbers were not surprising I suppose, reconfirmed they are bang on track, what was surprising was this 'transformation' was signaled (and largely ignored) nearly 3 months ago... I just couldn't quite match OCA's pretty graph and stuff.

Great to be on board with 3198 other shareholders.

[Joshuatree]

You're a legend tj; the real deal. Thanks for helping me and a few others making money, hats off.:t_up:

[Snow Leopard]

But if you are going to subtract the property revaluations then you also need to remove the other costs associated with those revaluations. Fortunately OCA do that for us on page 14 of their presentation and show underlying NPAT of $13.4M

You have misunderstood page 14. Take the property revaluations out and you are back to a loss.
Then add in the expensed transaction costs and it is possibly break even.

tj - I got on the register today and I am in profit - but not enough to pay for drinks yet.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[winner69]

Head honcho Bill on radio this morning

http://www.radionz.co.nz/audio/player?audio_id=201852693

Talking off 300 plus new units in F18 which seems heck of a lot more than in IPO forecasts

And countless mentions of acquisitions because plenty of funds at their disposal (more debt t_j). People knocking their door say buy us etc.

Comfortable with F18 forecast - yes, we know what comfortable really means eh

Wow - have a listen to give you the warm fuzzies on a cold morning

[Bjauck]

Posted this back in the dark old days (early april) .....

Great to be on board with 3198 other shareholders. 3199 now. I waited for the results and have now switched some Rym for a holding in OCA. It took some steel and confidence for you to stick to your guns despite a raft of cynicism (as with ARV.)

[janner]

Not enough fuel to back the truck up... Had to be satisfied with the boot of the Mini.. Now holding at ave .91


Disc Happy holder. Onwards and Upwards..

[Beagle]

Not FOMO - just an astute play by Mr Beagle

Potentially good/great short/medium returns with low risk.

Thanks mate but not really an astute play, just simply risk mitigation. As mentioned before, no harm in letting an IPO find a floor and back test its IPO price and then build an uptrend and buy into that uptrend. Fact is this is FAR less risky than being an IPO investor and doubling down into that uptrend is still less risky in my opinion but generates superior profits as compared to a single shot IPO investment.
By way of illustration while watching CNBC the other day they noted that of recent IPO's in the States 4 out of 5 are now underwater.

All that said kudos to IPO investors who were fortunate enough to have a good relationship with their broker and get a decent allotment. I am happy for you and there's plenty of profit all round for everyone so lets all have a big group hug and be happy :D

Moving on...the IPO forecast is for 8.42 cps underlying profit for FY18. Initially I thought this might gain traction to a PE of 12 if they could hit that target and growth rate of 40% but after reviewing the result yesterday and reviewing their development margin and consented development pipeline I think this has the potential to grow to a PE of as much as 15 in its first year which sees my 1 year target price at 15 x 8.42 = $1.26.

Also worth noting with this one is the dividend yield. Based on 55% payout ratio stated in IPO doc's and 8.42 cps that's 4.63 cps and on 98 cps that gives a dividend yield of ~ 4.7% By way of illustration that's more than double RYM or SUM and the shares currently trade on a forward PE of 11.6, about half of RYM and 78% of SUM.
SUM have the proven track record though so are still my value pick for the sector but this horse looks like it might run pretty well too, (if they can prove they can execute well).

[janner]

As stated before, no harm in letting an IPO find a floor and back test its IPO price and then build an uptrend and buy into that uptrend. Fact is this is FAR less risky than being an IPO investor and doubling down into that uptrend is still less risky in my opinion but generates superior profits as compared to a single shot IPO investment.
By way of illustration while watching CNBC the other day they noted that of recent IPO's in the States 4 out of 5 are now underwater.

All that said kudos to IPO investors who were fortunate enough to have a good relationship with their broker and get a decent allotment. I am happy for you and there's plenty of profit all round for everyone so lets all have a big group hug and be happy :D

Moving on...the IPO forecast is for 8.42 cps underlying profit for FY18. Initially I thought this might gain traction to a PE of 12 if they could hit that target and growth rate of 40% but after reviewing the result yesterday and reviewing their development margin and consented development pipeline I think this has the potential to grow to a PE of as much as 15 in its first year which sees my 1 year target price at 15 x 8.42 = $1.26.

Re IPO's. My sentiments also...

[winner69]

Mr Beagle said - not really an astute play, just simply risk mitigation.

Risk migration IS an astute play

[Beagle]

https://www.odt.co.nz/business/newly-listed-rest-home-provider-meets-beats-forecasts

[peat]

https://www.odt.co.nz/business/newly-listed-rest-home-provider-meets-beats-forecasts

so its all consistent having a


$45million, (ebitda)

and npat of $44.9million


??

[winner69]

so its all consistent having a


$45million, (ebitda)

and npat of $44.9million


??


??? mean what peat

[peat]

doesnt this imply that interest tax and depn and amortisation total only $0.1M

[winner69]

doesnt this imply that interest tax and depn and amortisation total only $0.1M


Maybe Page 14 of this presentation will help ....esp the bits around listed company structure

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/262295.pdf

[Beagle]

so its all consistent having a


$45million, (ebitda)

and npat of $44.9million


??

Without digging into the IPO documentation again, (hey its the weekend) I think the confusion is highly likely to stem from the accounting standards.
International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) requires property investment companies, (which is what retirement companies basically are) to include revaluations of their property portfolio each year, as well as all other realised profits into earnings under the generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). These are then included in the figure reported as Net Profit before tax but the revaluations are of course exempt for tax under N.Z. tax law so are excluded for tax purposes. So all clear as mud so far ?

EBITDA on the other hand is the figure that will exclude the above annual portfolio revaluation but include gains actually realised during the year (i.e.realised development gains on new units sold and realised gains on resale's of old occupation licenses.

One measure includes all unrealized and realised gains, the other just realised gains.

Underlying profit, (which is my favourite measure) is EDITDA less of course interest, depreciation and amortization.

So all crystal clear then :) Probably pure coincidence that the two figures are much the same. Let me know if you'd like me to look into this a bit more next week to ensure its just a coincidence the two figures are very similar. Page 14 useful as Winner has suggested but I completely understand most people's eyes will simply glaze over and I don't blame them to be honest.

The key figure to concentrate on and the one all the analysts use for comparison purposes is underlying profit. Underlying profit is forecast at 8.42 cps for FY18.
Now what's the right PE ?, that the debate. Provided they do what they say they will do I see it at 14-15 ($1.18 - $1.26) in 12 months time + 4.7% dividend yield but then I am also hopeful that SUM will be on a 17-18 PE by then which would see them close to $6.

The caveat here however is that if Winston Peter's is the kingmaker and he wants to smash immigration out of the park with the consequent effect on the property market, all bets are off !

[DarkHorse]

Thanks for your insightful posts Beagle. I agree with you re IPOs.
I know little about OCA but recent result and posts have piqued my interest.
I'm invested in SUM and would be interested to know what you see as being key differences between them (apart from the obvious SUM track record and OCA lower valuation).
cheers DH

[Snow Leopard]

With regard to the EBITDA/NPAT debate, the answer is, as always to read the friggin accounts!

Proper accountin:' EBITDA was $75M3 where NPAT was $44M9.

Pro Forma Underlying: EBITDA was $45M0 wherwhere NPAT was $34M0.

Take special note of note 3.3.

Wishes, Best of
Paper Tiger

[hardt]

OCA NZX

2017A

2018F
















OPERATING REVENUES

171,883








OPERATING EXPENSES LESS OTHER

133,093








GROSS OPERATING PROFIT

38,790








DEBT INTEREST INCURRED

20,146

3000>*







UNDERLYING NPAT

13,422








UNDERLYING EPS

2.196cps

6.0cps<*







UNDERLYING PE @$1

45.54

16.7>*
















Anyone have an idea of what this will look like next year? [ terms we see in 2.1 and not PFI* ]

[Beagle]

Thanks for your insightful posts Beagle. I agree with you re IPOs.
I know little about OCA but recent result and posts have piqued my interest.
I'm invested in SUM and would be interested to know what you see as being key differences between them (apart from the obvious SUM track record and OCA lower valuation).
cheers DH

You're welcome. Oceania more of a care focus http://www.oceaniahealthcare.co.nz/ but watch for SUM to morph their business model more that way too
http://www.summerset.co.nz/

[Benny1]

Thanks Mr Beagle and others for your recent posts on OCA. They certainly help someone like me to make sense of all the info one finds out there!
I didn't realise I was such an astute investor to wait for a good uptrend to emerge before I jumped i :-).
One thing I do notice with both OCA and ARV is they both don't have any villages south of CHC?

[peat]

Proper accountin:' EBITDA was $75M where NPAT was $44M9.


that's what I was suggesting ;+)

[winner69]

That interview with the CEO the other acquisitions were mentioned several times

Any acquisitions not included in forecasts

I think it was acquisitions that boosted the Arvida share price to where it is these days after a period of not doing much.

Bring on those acquisitions guys - as CEO said plenty of cash to spend.





plenty of small operators around pleading poverty - bargains?

[whome]

Great posts, Beagle, Trader Jackson and others. I am a scientist, not an accountant, so Beagle, your explanation of that glib phrase 'underlying profit' vs EBITDA was most appreciated. All very well for me to analyse the numbers but if I am using the wrong figures to start with ....oh dear!

[trader_jackson]

Not sure why it finished at 97 cents as I though the last trade was at 98 cents?
Only 13k of the 560k was traded at 97 cents... almost as if someone is trying to keep a cap on it, really should be above $1 already... especially with the acquisitions likely on the cards

[JCM]

I thought the same as above.

Value weighted average price was 97.98 for the day.

[777]

Not sure why it finished at 97 cents as I though the last trade was at 98 cents?
Only 13k of the 560k was traded at 97 cents... almost as if someone is trying to keep a cap on it, really should be above $1 already... especially with the acquisitions likely on the cards


It was in the settlement period in the last 15 mins of trading. Someone wanted out and took the buy price. The 23800 would not be counted as the last price as it was an in-house transaction of some sort.

[Beagle]

Yesterday's artificially low closing price not especially relevant today :)

[nocomment]

...and weve broken the $1 barrier...

[Lawstudent]

...and weve broken the $1 barrier...

Quietly chuffed about this!

[Beagle]

On its way to following ARV's path but interestingly when it gets to $1.28 it will be on a far more compelling underlying valuation than ARV.

[trader_jackson]

On its way to following ARV's path but interestingly when it gets to $1.28 it will be on a far more compelling underlying valuation than ARV.

I actually agree with this, OCA was listed so cheaply (as I have been saying for a while - but it is now less cheap than it was), in fact it still hasn't hit the top range ($1.04) they were potentially looking for.
Some of OCA's gains have very likely come at ARV's expense, but sometimes "ya can't win em all";)

Congratulations all holders

[Benny1]

Well grabbed a few more today, Bank balance isn't looking as healthy as it was a few weeks ago.....so that maybe my fill for a while!
Hope we all have a long and prosperous ride...:t_up:

[trader_jackson]

would have been nice to see it finish on the big (physiologically speaking) $1.00 mark, but 99c would have been ok. Interestingly, only about a third of the trading today was done at the finishing price (98 cents), the rest: above that mark, with over a quarter being brought at $1 (but strictly speaking 7k shares were sold at 97 cents)

Surely the sellers will stop raining on OCA's parade in the very late afternoon and finally allow it to finish at the $1 mark by the end of this week? (worst case - hopefully Thursday, or even tomorrow!)

[Joshuatree]

It wouldn't surprise name if there is a syndicate with a pumper/ spruiker on here, taking profits.

[winner69]

I reckon it'll hold over the $1 mark today - that'll be awesome

A few days above that $1 will give a few confidence to start buying ....and then it could go anywhere (do an Arvida)

[huxley]

I reckon it'll hold over the $1 mark today - that'll be awesome

A few days above that $1 will give a few confidence to start buying ....and then it could go anywhere (do an Arvida)

Purchased a small parcel last week @97c... better late than never!

[macduffy]

I reckon it'll hold over the $1 mark today - that'll be awesome

A few days above that $1 will give a few confidence to start buying ....and then it could go anywhere (do an Arvida)

It's a lovely chart! But that RSI is looking a bit stretched so I wouldn't be surprised to see some easing/consolidation for a while.

Disc: Holding from the IPO.

[trader_jackson]

I reckon it'll hold over the $1 mark today - that'll be awesome

A few days above that $1 will give a few confidence to start buying ....and then it could go anywhere (do an Arvida)

0.99! in the last minute or so as well?
Almost as if someone somewhere is trying really hard to keep OCA at $1, no matter the cost

[Beagle]

Strong day for the sector overall and VWAP for OCA up in line with RYM and SUM. Patience will be rewarded with this one is how I see it. Well done to all patient holders who has resisted the urge to take a quick profit. Sellers at $1 will run out of scrip soon enough with the volume in this one that's going through day after day.

[Beagle]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/OCA/announcements/304949

Multiple directors buying on market. They're the ones best positioned to know how the company has been trading in the period since balance date (31 May 2017)

Disc: Holding since 82 cps, doubled down twice already on the way up and (especially for one on here who claims that people never disclose what they're doing in real time) I am buying more at up to $1.00 today...following the insiders and smart money.




Silly this isn't already over$1, perhaps the best free lunch on the market at present

[Lawstudent]

Hi Beagle,

Just saw this, this morning. I take it as a good thing when Directors are doubling down so to speak? Better than selling off?

[Joshuatree]

Great time to sell as well when there are plenty of buyers. Im holding not buying or selling.

[Beagle]

Hi Beagle,

Just saw this, this morning. I take it as a good thing when Directors are doubling down so to speak? Better than selling off?

Almost always a good thing to follow insiders as they're the ones best positioned to know how the company has been trading since balance date and what the prospects are for the foreseeable future. This is a very strong indication because you have multiple directors buying in reasonable volume.

[Lawstudent]

Thanks for the reply Beagle.

One last question and it may sound stupid but I am unsure. Are the directors buying shares off the market, i.e. from you and me who have decided to sell. Or are they buying directly off the company therefore expanding the total amount of shares or reissuing more?

[Beagle]

Thanks for the reply Beagle.

One last question and it may sound stupid but I am unsure. Are the directors buying shares off the market, i.e. from you and me who have decided to sell. Or are they buying directly off the company therefore expanding the total amount of shares or reissuing more?
Buying on market. Click on the PDF's I provided a link for in post #431 to see quantities and work out what they paid per share.
Directors obviously think buying at this level is a great idea and they'd have a better idea than you, me or to be frank, probably anyone else.
If you follow the smart insider money you'll generally do very well over the long run mate.
Look at it this way, if you were selling on market at this level you'd be saying that you know better than multiple directors...and that would be a very "brave" call.

[Lawstudent]

Well put.

Cheers

[Lawstudent]

With the price 1.03 hopefully we have crossed the Rubicon of $1 at end of day.

[trader_jackson]

With the price 1.03 hopefully we have crossed the Rubicon of $1 at end of day.

And you'd like to think if it can hit $1.05 (which it has), it can stay above $1 mark!

Exciting times for holders

(but could do an ARV and provide healthy gains, then stall for the next 5 or so months)

[Beagle]

And you'd like to think if it can hit $1.05 (which it has), it can stay above $1 mark!

Exciting times for holders

(but could do an ARV and provide healthy gains, then stall for the next 5 or so months)

I think we'd all be happy to see it track up to ARV's price of ~ $1.28 and indeed I expect that will happen over the next year or so.

Speaking of AR things...in a brief quiet moment this morning when ARG and OCA were both $1.03 I got to pondering as one does from time to time, (seeing as I have a stake in both and they're ostensibly property investment companies), the former yielding about 5.9% PIE fund so a slightly better yield...which has a higher price a year from now, five years from now and ten years from now... (this is rhetorical question for anyone wondering).

Reminder to silly beagle self, must keep an eye on growth and less focus on yield

[winner69]

Mr Taleb's dentist said don't look at stock prices to often ...only causes too many painful frustrating moments

OCA gone up 6% plus in each of the last 2 weeks. Two very pleasurable moments for those who only check prices on Saturday morning

Awesome - 2 weeks in a row of 6% plus gains for OCA - awesome

Check back next Saturday - another 6% week coming up

[tim23]

I bought day 1 at 81c then promptly went to 78c (often happens!) So sellers at 78 were under water you wonder why they bothered maybe no stag impatience who knows?

[BlackPeter]

Gee - director's wife is buying a quarter of a million shares for 98 cents ... just wondering whether she talked with her husband before her shopping spree?

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/262906.pdf

Discl: holding, but slowly wondering, whether I am holding enough ;)?

[Fatboyj]

Apologies if this sounds totally novice, how did she buy the shares? Was this done on the open market or privately(did hubby just transfer to her) because there's no trade for 250k shares on market depth. And how did she get them at 99c?

[dgrizz72]

The trade was completed on the 1st of August. These disclosure notices aren't in real time

[BlackPeter]

Apologies if this sounds totally novice, how did she buy the shares? Was this done on the open market or privately(did hubby just transfer to her) because there's no trade for 250k shares on market depth. And how did she get them at 99c?

Just read the announcement - she bought the shares on August 1st on market.

9063

closing price on August 1st was 98 cents - that's the price she bought at (edit: I originally stated 99 cents - my mistake))

BTW - volume was that day roughly 2 million shares - i.e. lots of headroom to accommodate for her 250000;

[Fatboyj]

Thank you guys I'm going to be asking a lot of questions at an extremely novice level as I'm slowly getting into investing - shares mainly, (bitcoins too, yea line up and smack the back of my head)

But its not been a good start as this morning the ASB share dealing site has a - Service Disruption - Trade Processing. Great timing. And only 266 shares available at 1.03 as I edit this. Hmmm.

[BlackPeter]

Just read the announcement - she bought the shares on August 1st on market.

9063

closing price on August 1st was 98 cents - i.e. she was quite keen ;)

BTW - volume was that day roughly 2 million shares - i.e. lots of headroom to accommodate for her 250000;

Oops - sometimes the inbuilt calculator makes small mistakes. She bought 250000 shares at $245000 - and this is obviously an average price of 98 cents (i.e. at closing price, not 99 cents as I first stated).

Mea culpa - should use the table calculator more often or practise these grey cells a bit more ;)

[Beagle]

(98, 99, $1.03) doesn't matter really...what matters is directors and their nearest and dearest are getting their wallets out in a serious manner and showing a really meaningful vote of confidence in the company's future.

P.S. Bean counting hounds always use their calculator :)

[Joshuatree]

That means couta too methinks

[horus1]

I think these are worth buying . Not much else on NZ market,picked some up in 80's and at 100. Will hold long term.

[Fatboyj]

Whats the timeframe for a dividend being paid? Or is it better we just let them reinvest for growth. I like the very positive posts pretty much everyone has given OCA on this site and close to investing in some tomorrow. Join the happy crowd.

[huxley]

First dividend is due to be paid in feb 2018..

[Fatboyj]

And with Remuera retirement village closing its doors this will only be good news for the other retirement villages picking up the displaced. I saw the retirement home on the news, looked very tired, dated and décor was dull yellow. I could almost smell the liver and onions. Compare that to the shiney new homes coming onto the market I know where I'd want my staring window to be.

[777]

And with Remuera retirement village closing its doors this will only be good news for the other retirement villages picking up the displaced. I saw the retirement home on the news, looked very tired, dated and décor was dull yellow. I could almost smell the liver and onions. Compare that to the shiney new homes coming onto the market I know where I'd want my staring window to be.

Having had a family member there is the recent past, I can only say it was a well run, caring place. It is a shame that it is to close.

[Bjauck]

...I could almost smell the liver and onions. Compare that to the shiney new homes coming onto the market I know where I'd want my staring window to be.
They would be so lucky to get liver, onions, boiled cabbage and good mashed spuds! Especially nice if followed by a rice pudding best baked in large quantity. Fancier foods require robust digestion. Let's hope the shiny homes are weather tight and solidly built...

[janner]

They would be so lucky to get liver, onions, boiled cabbage and good mashed spuds! Especially nice if followed by a rice pudding best baked in large quantity. Fancier foods require robust digestion. Let's hope the shiny homes are weather tight and solidly built...

Mmmmmm. More lip smacking good for you than any fast food could ever be.

[Fatboyj]

Having had a family member there is the recent past, I can only say it was a well run, caring place. It is a shame that it is to close.

Appearances are then deceiving. I hope everyone effected manages to find an equally caring place.

[dabsman]

And with Remuera retirement village closing its doors this will only be good news for the other retirement villages picking up the displaced. I saw the retirement home on the news, looked very tired, dated and décor was dull yellow. I could almost smell the liver and onions. Compare that to the shiney new homes coming onto the market I know where I'd want my staring window to be.

Staring window... absolute gold

[dobby41]

Appearances are then deceiving. I hope everyone effected manages to find an equally caring place.

Even those affected.

[Fatboyj]

^^^ :)

Me fail English, that's unpossible.

[whatsup]

Very few shares on offer imo it will be $1.10 + shortly.

[trader_jackson]

Better get in quick folks ;)
Going to start giving ARV a run for its money soon (already is really)

[Beagle]

As posted in the SUM thread I get the sense that the recent closures of some smaller and medium sized charitable and privately run care centers is just the very tip of the iceberg as only the very first phase of the new caregiver pay rates started to kick in on 1 July 2017. This company with its freshly reenergized balance sheet is well placed to look at acquisitions as are SUM other companies. Another announcement of director buying more this morning, obviously recent director acquisitions suggest they all think the company is very well positioned. The way this is going even old foes on here are likely to have a big group hug at the first annual meeting:t_up:
Disc: Hold this and SUM

[suse]

. The way this is going even old foes on here are likely to have a big group hug at the first annual meeting:t_up:
Disc: Hold this and SUM

percy? snoopy? Is it possible for them to agree? :)

I've just dived (well, dipped my big toe to be fair) in on the basis that they will be delivering dividends. There's money in the old age sector, no denying it. Although who knows what will happen in another 50/60 years when the millenials who havent got homes to sell to get into these places have nowhere to go.

[Lawstudent]

Hi All,
I don't have access to the sell orders lodged. I can only see what is happening on nzx.com, is someone able to take a screenshot from there end?

Also I saw from Craigs after annual results a forecast of 1.04. Will the big boys be revaluating the price guide?

[Jantar]

Hi All,
I don't have access to the sell orders lodged. I can only see what is happening on nzx.com, is someone able to take a screenshot from there end?

Also I saw from Craigs after annual results a forecast of 1.04. Will the big boys be revaluating the price guide?
Have a look at the company depth (On ANZ or ASB).

[Joshuatree]

Just be careful following the spruikers, they may well be selling to you.

[steveb]

Hi All,
I don't have access to the sell orders lodged. I can only see what is happening on nzx.com, is someone able to take a screenshot from there end?

Also I saw from Craigs after annual results a forecast of 1.04. Will the big boys be revaluating the price guide?
this what you need?



Buyers

Buy Quantity

Prices



15
299,928
$1.060


5
103,475
$1.050


8
58,995
$1.040


8
41,500
$1.030


8
329,150
$1.020


8
130,255
$1.010


8
81,100
$1.000


10
91,500
$0.990


11
194,163
$0.980


5
29,000
$0.970


86
1,359,066






Prices

Sell Quantity

Sellers



$1.070
293,712
7


$1.080
85,196
4


$1.090
42,062
5


$1.100
39,100
6


$1.120
19,000
1


$1.150
247,046
2


$1.200
1,000
1


$1.250
10,000
1


$1.300
10,000
1


$1.500
25,000
1



772,116
29

[Fatboyj]

I'm finding the ANZ securities site more useful as you can see the recent trades next to the bids and asks. See the pattern forming. And use ASB as its only $30 a trade up to 10k. Is that an ok price for brokerage fees or can I find better elsewhere?

From ANZ.




Recent Trades






Price
Volume
Time
Cond


107
75,848
14:14
SP


107
228,802
14:13
SP


107
11,700
14:12
SP


107
6,500
14:10
SP


107
1,379
14:07



107
9,000
13:57



107
559
13:57



107
819
13:57



107
9,059
13:48



107
9,441
13:48



107
20,000
13:47



107
1,378
13:47



107
3,000
13:41



107
150,000
13:40
SP


107
100,000
13:39
SP

[stones]

Have just done the same suse. Where will they go? Who knows.

[777]

I'm finding the ANZ securities site more useful as you can see the recent trades next to the bids and asks. See the pattern forming. And use ASB as its only $30 a trade up to 10k. Is that an ok price for brokerage fees or can I find better elsewhere?

From ANZ.




Recent Trades






Price
Volume
Time
Cond


107
75,848
14:14
SP


107
228,802
14:13
SP


107
11,700
14:12
SP


107
6,500
14:10
SP


107
1,379
14:07



107
9,000
13:57



107
559
13:57



107
819
13:57



107
9,059
13:48



107
9,441
13:48



107
20,000
13:47



107
1,378
13:47



107
3,000
13:41



107
150,000
13:40
SP


107
100,000
13:39
SP



ANZ Securities is 29.90 for $15,000 then .02%

[Fatboyj]

Ah that's come down from previous research, it was $30 + some % per trade. Good to know thanks.

[steveb]

I'm finding the ANZ securities site more useful as you can see the recent trades next to the bids and asks. See the pattern forming. And use ASB as its only $30 a trade up to 10k. Is that an ok price for brokerage fees or can I find better elsewhere?

From ANZ.




Recent Trades






Price
Volume
Time
Cond


107
75,848
14:14
SP


107
228,802
14:13
SP


107
11,700
14:12
SP


107
6,500
14:10
SP


107
1,379
14:07



107
9,000
13:57



107
559
13:57



107
819
13:57



107
9,059
13:48



107
9,441
13:48



107
20,000
13:47



107
1,378
13:47



107
3,000
13:41



107
150,000
13:40
SP


107
100,000
13:39
SP



prices work out a tad cheaper on ANZ:-


For trades for New Zealand listed securities (other than debt securities) with a trade value of up to NZ$15,000
NZ$29.90


For trades for New Zealand listed securities (other than debt securities) with a trade value exceeding NZ$15,000:



(i) for the first NZ$15,000; plus
NZ$29.90


(ii) for the portion of the trade value exceeding NZ$15,000
0.20%

[Bjauck]

percy? snoopy? Is it possible for them to agree? :)

I've just dived (well, dipped my big toe to be fair) in on the basis that they will be delivering dividends. There's money in the old age sector, no denying it. Although who knows what will happen in another 50/60 years when the millenials who havent got homes to sell to get into these places have nowhere to go.
Actually even though the home ownership rate is dropping at the moment, the number of home owners is increasing - thanks to immigration and population growth!

[Lawstudent]

Thanks very much!



this what you need?



Buyers

Buy Quantity

Prices



15

299,928

$1.060



5

103,475

$1.050



8

58,995

$1.040



8

41,500

$1.030



8

329,150

$1.020



8

130,255

$1.010



8

81,100

$1.000



10

91,500

$0.990



11

194,163

$0.980



5

29,000

$0.970



86

1,359,066







Prices

Sell Quantity

Sellers



$1.070

293,712

7



$1.080

85,196

4



$1.090

42,062

5



$1.100

39,100

6



$1.120

19,000

1



$1.150

247,046

2



$1.200

1,000

1



$1.250

10,000

1



$1.300

10,000

1



$1.500

25,000

1




772,116

29

[Beagle]

Topping up with a few more in the closing match process. Posting in real time for anyone interested. I'm thinking 2-3 years down the track here and I honestly think there will be an abundance of very cheap acquisition opportunities in late stage care as more and more small operators are forced to close through increasing wages.
Oceania with its award winning care probably best placed of any of the operators to capitalize.

[macduffy]

Topping up with a few more in the closing match process. Posting in real time for anyone interested. I'm thinking 2-3 years down the track here and I honestly think there will be an abundance of very cheap acquisition opportunities in late stage care as more and more small operators are forced to close through increasing wages.
Oceania with its award winning care probably best placed of any of the operators to capitalize.

Do we know how much, if any, unused capacity they have in this regard?

[Beagle]

As expected, and as I alluded too that is something that was required very early in this thread, they dramatically deleveraged their balance sheet using nearly the full proceeds of the IPO float. Gearing as at 31 May 2107 was a very modest 15% so they are well positioned although I would imagine any acquisitions would be achieved at a very discounted rate given that other operators basically have their hands full with their own development projects, e.g. SUM recently announced their Parnell and St John's developments would involve capex of as much as $1.3 billion over the next few years and RYM are very busy in Australia.

[winner69]

Up 6%+ two weeks ago

Up 6%+ last week

Up 6%+ this week ......and it's only Wednesday

Probably next week will be another 6%+ as well

[Fatboyj]

666 great number.

Have followed this thread very closely, and glad to have jumped in and bought last week. Thanks all for your input. Is there no one on this site against this stock? No devils advocate to stir things up a bit?

[Lawstudent]

Yes interested in other viewpoints, always good looking at the cons.

I am in for the long haul, but since IPO up already 39%. Lucky I heard them advertise on the radio earlier this year for the IPO.

Of interest to experienced investors. With the Dividend coming out in FEB, what should I do with it. I know to reinvest, but to buy something else incurs brokerage of $30 ($300 div), already down 10%. I currently have holdings in FNZ, and Craigs my start with 4 Bluechips, perhaps I could deposit it into one of them as a one off as from memory they have no brokerage only fees.

Any thoughts?


666 great number.

Have followed this thread very closely, and glad to have jumped in and bought last week. Thanks all for your input. Is there no one on this site against this stock? No devils advocate to stir things up a bit?

[Jantar]

.....
Of interest to experienced investors. With the Dividend coming out in FEB, what should I do with it. I know to reinvest, but to buy something else incurs brokerage of $30 ($300 div), already down 10%..... Keep it in the bank. I seldom make any trades of less than $3000 otherwise the brokerage just kills it.

[trader_jackson]

666 great number.

Have followed this thread very closely, and glad to have jumped in and bought last week. Thanks all for your input. Is there no one on this site against this stock? No devils advocate to stir things up a bit?

There were plenty at the start, I could probably write a few pages of all the things that were brought up, I was one of the few who actually seemed to like the company... how things change in such a short period of time ;)

[Beagle]

There were plenty at the start, I could probably write a few pages of all the things that were brought up, I was one of the few who actually seemed to like the company... how things change in such a short period of time ;)

You and Joshuatree should be very grateful for the detractors comments as I am sure in a small way they helped suppress demand and the IPO price. You're welcome and I'll look forward to you shouting me a few beers at the next Auckland ST get together. JT could come along too and we could all have a big group hug :D

If enough money and alcohol is involved I reckon almost anyone can get along

[dobby41]

You and Joshuatree should be very grateful for the detractors comments as I am sure in a small way they helped suppress demand and the IPO price.

Wow - the power of this forum eh?

[Joshuatree]

You and Joshuatree should be very grateful for the detractors comments as I am sure in a small way they helped suppress demand and the IPO price. You're welcome and I'll look forward to you shouting me a few beers at the next Auckland ST get together. JT could come along too and we could all have a big group hug :D

If enough money and alcohol is involved I reckon almost anyone can get along

Hilarious joke of the week for me thanks:t_up:

fatboy read the earlier threads and you will find exactly that and it has happened many times where the anti switches to the "back up the truck". Be careful on here and make your own researched decisions. Lets all be safe out there and remember rule number 1 2and 3.

[Beagle]

Wow - the power of this forum eh?

Its by no means the only forum where the veracity of the companies balance sheet as it was originally structured was questioned. Some of us as far back as 2014 made the observation that some pretty dramatic balance sheet restructuring was needed and it is pleasing that the company directors took those comments on board and used the full net proceeds of the IPO to effect exactly that outcome. The company is far better positioned now going forward.

[Bjauck]

...
If enough money and alcohol is involved I reckon almost anyone can get along I respect your posts but I must admit I do not understand how you can be so severe in your criticism of SKC as a "sin" company in so far as it may also make money from addicted gamblers, yet be so flippant about consuming large amounts of alcohol, which is widely accessible, and which can lead to devastating addictions and has caused grief to so many.
Disc: former shareholder of SKC, current shareholder of OCA, have seen the damage wrought by alcohol addiction

[Beagle]

It was just a flippant remark, don't condone alcoholism but a couple of drinks now and again is okay I reckon and you are quite right, alcohol which is far more widely available has destroyed many lives in fact (and this is not directed at you) I sometimes wonder how much some posters on here have drunk before they post...anyway we're well off track, is Oceania up to $1.15 yet ? :t_up:

[Fatboyj]

is Oceania up to $1.15 yet ? :t_up:

I fired up the Delorean, lucky I bought Meridian shares for the 1.2gw of power.

OK back from next Tuesday, yes we have 1.15! Also Matiria has resigned and America's gone to defcon 1.

[dobby41]

Its by no means the only forum where the veracity of the companies balance sheet as it was originally structured was questioned. Some of us as far back as 2014 made the observation that some pretty dramatic balance sheet restructuring was needed and it is pleasing that the company directors took those comments on board and used the full net proceeds of the IPO to effect exactly that outcome. The company is far better positioned now going forward.

Wow again - comments from here even make the Directors take note on how to run the company.
Power indeed.

[dabsman]

My comments to my gf don't even get me a cooked dinner? Where have I gone wrong?

[Beagle]

My comments to my gf don't even get me a cooked dinner? Where have I gone wrong?

LOL I am sure the investment bankers and analysts involved in the float gave them the message loud and clear that they needed to get their balance sheet in tip top shape to bring it to market by IPO. They're the ones that were really listened too and probably don't have any problems getting a hot cooked meal from their partners at the end of a day either.

[Beagle]

I fired up the Delorean, lucky I bought Meridian shares for the 1.2gw of power.

OK back from next Tuesday, yes we have 1.15! Also Matiria has resigned and America's gone to defcon 1.

LOL...back on subject, I would think that not only does the closing of these privately run late stage care centers throw up interesting acquisition opportunities but also in the meantime it ensures that Oceania's care facilities are running at very close to 100% occupancy, (a little birdie tells me yet another privately owned care center in Wellington is in real trouble).

[aajm1490]

Hi all,

Apologies for being slightly off-topic; I'll keep this as short as possible.

Colmar Brunton is conducting some research on behalf of the Financial Markets Authority (FMA) about what information investors find most helpful to make informed decisions about particular investments. This will help the FMA improve product disclosure documents to make them more useful for investors. We're looking for people to take part in paid research interviews at our Auckland and Wellington offices in late August.

We'd like to talk with you if you have recently invested, or seriously considered investing, in the recent Oceania IPO.

Your contact details and the feedback you provide in interviews will be completely annonymised and will not be used for any other purpose. If you are interested in taking part, please email ali.ajmal@colmarbrunton.co.nz with your contact details including a phone number.

Cheers

PS: If you're interested, please get in touch via the email above as direct messages on ST won't be acknowledged.
PPS: This message was cleared with an ST Admin before being posted.

[King1212]

Ah....u ruin the party.....

[johnluangco]

An interesting quote from the article "If nothing else changes by 2019, we will be at capacity". My knowledge of the retirement sector is quite limited, but the statement sounds quite bleak?


https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/95699074/our-ageing-nation-can-our-rest-homes-cope-with-the-growing-retired-population

[Beagle]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/manawatu-standard/business/93776928/Impact-of-pay-equity-settlement-passed-on-to-rest-home-residents-and-their-families

Except - Interestingly the five listed operators provide only 10,000 of the 38,000 care beds in the country.

Interesting times for the industry...one wonders how the smaller operators with moderate occupancy level's will cope..I expect significant rationalization in the care industry and in due course in the future it will not surprise me if there is an acute shortage of quality care facilities.

[percy]

An interesting quote from the article "If nothing else changes by 2019, we will be at capacity". My knowledge of the retirement sector is quite limited, but the statement sounds quite bleak?


https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/95699074/our-ageing-nation-can-our-rest-homes-cope-with-the-growing-retired-population

Refreshing.Not one mention of the property market.
The article just confirms the huge challenge this sector faces, to house the huge tsunami of retirees, over the next 20 plus years.

[Bjauck]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/manawatu-standard/business/93776928/Impact-of-pay-equity-settlement-passed-on-to-rest-home-residents-and-their-families

Except - Interestingly the five listed operators provide only 10,000 of the 38,000 care beds in the country.

Interesting times for the industry...one wonders how the smaller operators with moderate occupancy level's will cope..I expect significant rationalization in the care industry and in due course in the future it will not surprise me if there is an acute shortage of quality care facilities.

If the increased funding from the government fails to fully reflect the pay equity changes, then those small operators will be in trouble. With recent residential real estate price inflation, perhaps the government will be relying even more on private payers to pay for care costs (they also scrapped the planned big increase in the asset threshhold.) In addition they may be relying on the big operators such as OCA to cross-subsidise the care beds from their profits from the sale of ORAs.

"The Westpac report found private companies such as Ryman are expected to provide "around 40 per cent of the rest home beds needed over the next 10 years.
"These beds are "almost always" part of a larger village like Bob Scott. These facilities find it easier to make money. As the report puts it, they have the "scale and alternative revenue streams to remain profitable". (my highlight)
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/95699074/our-ageing-nation-can-our-rest-homes-cope-with-the-growing-retired-population