OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Brain]

The reason that I am positive about the future for OCA is their focus on care. This means higher turnover of the ORAs for the care suites and also the greater attractiveness of the independent apartments because transfer to a care unit within the same village is more likely. Very hard to quantify this but it is part of the trick to investing in identifying the tailwinds

[fish]

Hi Mav, Don't sweat it mate, predicting the future is always fraught with risk. For what its worth I think underlying profit will only match or just exceed FY19...my best guess is about $50-55m.

Growth will happen in the years ahead but it will be slow and hampered by ongoing significant increases in the cost of providing intensive care services. I prefer the business model of SUM which as mentioned before has the tremendous natural advantage in that it is much less dependent on human resources.

Don't put all your eggs in one basket mate as it does turn out, you can have too many. My view is that very late stage care is not going to give the best return on capital no matter what pricing model one uses. So many have closed due to the very steeply rising cost of providing services.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12306121&utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Saturday+8+ February+2020
I think these guys are going to have to take a haircut on their thinking of what their facility is really worth.

Dear Beagle,

After reading your link about closures I still do not understand why this applies to Oceania.In those cases quoted are you not comparing apples with oranges(or lemons)
Is it not possible for Oceania to charge for late stage care and add an appropriate profit margin?

[Beagle]

Dear Beagle,

After reading your link about closures I still do not understand why this applies to Oceania.In those cases quoted are you not comparing apples with oranges(or lemons)
Is it not possible for Oceania to charge for late stage care and add an appropriate profit margin?

Hi fish,
As it currently stands the significant majority of OCA's business model is very similar to the facilities that have closed. The transformation process to be 60 / 40 new occupation right agreement model v old Govt funded care model will take approximately another 4 years to complete and another year after that to be effected, (to sell down most of the transformed units). In five years time the initial phase of the transformation process as outlined in the IPO statements will be complete. Probably take another 5 years after that to convert and sell down the rest of the units. All that time the handbrake of old unprofitable (hence all those closures) model will drag on earnings, albeit gradually at a lower rate as each year as the gradual transformation process proceeds.
Once the transformation is fully complete I believe they will have a very good business model and the demographics suggest late stage care will be in very short supply so its quite possible they will be able ratchet up their occupation licence agreement model costs. In the meantime they are hamstrung by Govt funding for the majority of their business and late stage old folks care is not a sexy vote winner.

[fish]

Hi fish,
As it currently stands the significant majority of OCA's business model is very similar to the facilities that have closed. The transformation process to be 60 / 40 new occupation right agreement model v old Govt funded care model will take approximately another 4 years to complete and another year after that to be effected, (to sell down most of the transformed units). In five years time the initial phase of the transformation process as outlined in the IPO statements will be complete. Probably take another 5 years after that to convert and sell down the rest of the units. All that time the handbrake of old unprofitable (hence all those closures) model will drag on earnings, albeit gradually at a lower rate as each year as the gradual transformation process proceeds.
Once the transformation is fully complete I believe they will have a very good business model and the demographics suggest late stage care will be in very short supply so its quite possible they will be able ratchet up their occupation licence agreement model costs. In the meantime they are hamstrung by Govt funding for the majority of their business and late stage old folks care is not a sexy vote winner.
Thanks so much for that informative reply.
I just wonder if it is not possible to improve the level of government care and improve happiness-of course charge appropriately for it.
For instance whenever I go to a rest home I see basic boring food provided.
Is it not possible to offer more exciting food for those able to pay for it ?
Icecreams,iced drinks ,dvd,internet etc
Potted plants
Massages
Hair dressing nail painting.aromatherapists
There are many things that could improve quality in those twilight times

[Maverick]

Thanks to all here for your very kind responses, I really appreciate it.


Beagle , with the greatest respect , I don't agree with your view that “care”is a handbrake on profit in OCAs case.
We can both agree the govt will never pay a cent more than the bare minimum to keep rest homes just viable, and only just. Chuck in some earthquake strengthening or something and they shut up shop.( As happened at Wanganui's Nazareth rest home mentioned in your article).
I expect OCA will never make much paying nurses and caregivers to look after elderly patients.


Where OCAs model wins is that they make money on the “room” the client is in, not the nurse. This is where I think some here have not picked up that the profit made on the new care suite sale and subsequent resales shows up in the “Village” page of the accounting. In other words the “care profit” page of accounts is rapidly diminishing as the suite profits is now reported under the “village” section and increasing.


Consider the last 3 years of care earnings (plus my updated anticipated 2020 just for fun)
FY17 31.9m, FY18 28.9m, FY19 25m, FY20 20m.
We agree that this looks very bad, now let's add to this the caresuit new sales margins and resale margins reported in the “village”section of accounts.
FY17 34m, FY18 34.9, FY19 34.2m, FY20 38.5
While this is much better it still isn't great. But remember the significant push of making loads of care suits only started 2 years ago and these are only “selling down” now.


Care suits also sell much slower from new delivery than ILUs as they are "needs based". I calculate that right now exactly half of the new deliveries built since the IPO are currently empty. While this sounds terrible , this rate of new sales uptake is actually on track in order to fill over 2-3 years ( from being newly delivered and completely empty) This rate of new suit sales is in fact tracking slightly ahead of where they need to be. One could argue they could have built even more per site. These will then resell at a self replenishing level as each client vacates. Note that they have very few empty suites for resale.


Soooo…. given the caresuit sales are now gaining good traction (and gaining more efficiency of staff too I presume) the care profit combined with the property profit component will go meaningfully upwards from here on.


Then let's not forget OCA will get 30% DMF return on a care suite every 3 years rather than 30% every 7 years that a villa attracts. Once the churn begins things really get interesting.

This is the potential reward for the risk (of execution)and the key difference between OCA and its peers.

[RTM]

Done.
~50% gone at 136. Nice profit on buy of 100.
Will consider buying back should they drop to < 110. Other than that...have some money looking for a new home.
Looking forward to the Jan result with interest.
Sure beats the dividend tho while I wait.

Topped up again @ $1.19.
Wasn't sure they would drop again to 110’ish, and some nice cash to help with the boat anti-foul later in the year.
Thanks Maverick, Beagle etc for your considered analysis.

[King1212]

Topped up again @ $1.19.
Wasn't sure they would drop again to 110’ish, and some nice cash to help with the boat anti-foul later in the year.
Thanks Maverick, Beagle etc for your considered analysis.

u made a right decision, out of many stocks at NZX..i think OCA is in the best position now as no matter what happen, trade war, virus etcs...these oldies need to be looked after..people are getting old and money are kept coming from the government.

Good on u!

[MauroNZ]

After 2 weeks of ENORMOUS effort to figure out what went wrong between my estimate and actual HY results I've made it to the end of the rainbow. In my defence I always stated my prediction seemed too good to be true but I couldn't see where my workings might be wrong... well now I have.
There where 3 key mistakes/ assumptions I made which may be of interest to others here;
1. The emptying of beds at Lady allum has started ( I thought it was programmed further out). This obviously hurts revenue while maintaining staff costs. This is not a problem per se , just my own anticipated timing of it.
2. Here is the biggie …..I thought ILU new sales would be linear. In fact new ILU sales happen mostly in HY2. I've learned old clients don't venture out in the cold. This explains why the HY2 result is always MUCH stronger. ( I assumed it was always just a delivery, timing thing)So the large Sands and Meadowbank new sales margins ( and large DMFs thereafter)won't really show until the upcoming HY2.
3. On the negative side, “Depreciation” is rapidly rising and will get much greater as they deliver more new stuff. At least this is a non cash expense.

I have spent several weeks on it now and projected out the full pipeline development to completion and FWIW I see care profit declining substantially further for one more year before swinging back upwards as care suits exponentially fill up. These new care suit sales , then DMFs, will increasingly overcompensate for future care beds being decommissioned.


IMO is that OCA’ s reconstruction model is too complex for anyone with a real day job to apply the required focus to fully understand it ( those in meaningful employment can always just take Earls word that things are hunky dory, or otherwise follow the directors lead who are substantially buying up lately). OCAs current overhaul programme is just a beast with many moving parts and with many combinations of deconstruction,revamping, rebuilding methods which all take a lot of separate consideration.
It's not possible to communicate how this complex model works in a chat room using only a few paragraphs at a time, even this post is too long.
One really needs visuals, laser pointers and a break for morning tea to get how this will most likely play out.
For anybody less than “advanced “ in NZ retirement stocks I recommend studying SUM instead. It's much easier to understand buying a paddock and building “monopoly” type units. They are obviously proving an extremely successful model too with lots of history.


So with what ever credibility I have left, my revised prediction for FY20 is underlying 60-61m.
And beyond that it just goes from strength to strength so I'm a very happy long term holder. I wish I had more moola to buy even more in the current opportunity Maccas has just presented us.

Hey Mav this is an outstanding post. I have to say is still a work in progress the kind of analysis people like you and Beagle do and sometimes I don't have the brain energy to go through all the things I can only imagine you guys do (because of a day job). In saying that I couldn't consider OCA as it seems very entangled but this was only my suspicion.

I hope you go to the SUM AGM. Thank you!.

[Beagle]

Beagle , with the greatest respect , I don't agree with your view that “care”is a handbrake on profit in OCAs case.
We can both agree the govt will never pay a cent more than the bare minimum to keep rest homes just viable, and only just. Chuck in some earthquake strengthening or something and they shut up shop.( As happened at Wanganui's Nazareth rest home mentioned in your article).
I expect OCA will never make much paying nurses and caregivers to look after elderly patients.
Hi Mav. Firstly let me say that I have a ton of respect for all the time you put into analysing this stock and I know you have built a comprehensive spreadsheet model to model out the various aspects of their operation.
Given that for the next few years basic Govt funded operations form the bulk of their business model how is this not a handbrake on their growth ?
They have to change, Earl has admitted returns on the traditional care model are inadequate so the "pain" of the transition process itself is also a handbrake, until its not. By pain, clearly I refer too having to keep staff on retainer while old facilities are demolished and new ones rebuilt and possible inefficient staffing level's while new blocks of care suites gradually fill up


Where OCAs model wins is that they make money on the “room” the client is in, not the nurse. This is where I think some here have not picked up that the profit made on the new care suite sale and subsequent resales shows up in the “Village” page of the accounting. In other words the “care profit” page of accounts is rapidly diminishing as the suite profits is now reported under the “village” section and increasing.


Consider the last 3 years of care earnings (plus my updated anticipated 2020 just for fun)
FY17 31.9m, FY18 28.9m, FY19 25m, FY20 20m.
We agree that this looks very bad, now let's add to this the caresuit new sales margins and resale margins reported in the “village”section of accounts.
FY17 34m, FY18 34.9, FY19 34.2m, FY20 38.5
While this is much better it still isn't great. But remember the significant push of making loads of care suits only started 2 years ago and these are only “selling down” now.


Care suits also sell much slower from new delivery than ILUs as they are "needs based". I calculate that right now exactly half of the new deliveries built since the IPO are currently empty. While this sounds terrible , this rate of new sales uptake is actually on track in order to fill over 2-3 years ( from being newly delivered and completely empty) This rate of new suit sales is in fact tracking slightly ahead of where they need to be. One could argue they could have built even more per site. These will then resell at a self replenishing level as each client vacates. Note that they have very few empty suites for resale.


Soooo…. given the caresuit sales are now gaining good traction (and gaining more efficiency of staff too I presume) the care profit combined with the property profit component will go meaningfully upwards from here on.


Then let's not forget OCA will get 30% DMF return on a care suite every 3 years rather than 30% every 7 years that a villa attracts. Once the churn begins things really get interesting.

This is the potential reward for the risk (of execution)and the key difference between OCA and its peers.

This I totally agree with but we are probably 5-6 years away from really meaningful (in the context of the size of their total operation), churn really making its presence substantially felt. From about 2027 or more likely 2030 when a full transition of all facilities has been effected there's a chance this model outperforms the sector due to the churn rate. For at least the first half of this decade I think there's every chance this underperforms the rest of the retirement sector simply because others are not carrying the legacy issues of substantial parts of their business being under-funded and others don't have to suffer the financial pain of the transformation process. That's how I see it but I do acknowledge that they are staying on track and executing the transformation of their business model in a timely and profitable manner and they have a vast amount of their future planned transformation already consented. I think with a stronger / more commercially minded CEO this could really fly at some future stage, probably much later this decade but I will observe from the sidelines at this stage. I hope I survive the coronavirus (late 50's high blood pressure, I am vulnerable) to see the day this really takes off in terms of profit and share price growth.

I think we are looking at this from different perspectives. I am NOT saying OCA is bad value here. I am NOT saying the transformation process isn't working and won't be effective in the years ahead. I AM saying SUM other sector participants are NOT handicapped by having such a large percentage of their business model giving such a grossly inadequate return on investment, until years later it isn't.

In terms of our market at a macro level, and the global markets generally, I think 2020 is shaping up as a very difficult year and to be honest CASH looks very good to me as an asset class at present.
Best wishes to holders

[LAC]

Trimmed a few SUM and OCA and added some RYM today.
I like all 3 so just thought I should build a position in the 3rd:)

[trader_jackson]

Trimmed a few SUM and OCA and added some RYM today.
I like all 3 so just thought I should build a position in the 3rd:)

Might want to build a position in ARV, has all the best of those 3, but without the baggage ;) (SUM non profitable care division and inventory issues, OCA's transformation 'bottlenecks', and RYM's ridiculously high PE)

[jallison]

Might want to build a position in ARV, has all the best of those 3, but without the baggage ;) (SUM non profitable care division and inventory issues, OCA's transformation 'bottlenecks', and RYM's ridiculously high PE)

your posts on the oca threads are becoming monotonous, is there not an arvida thread you can post on ,your enthusiasm for this stock is such that,if not you should start one

[winner69]

your posts on the oca threads are becoming monotonous, is there not an arvida thread you can post on ,your enthusiasm for this stock is such that,if not you should start one

Comparing OCA to ARV as an investment is no different to comparing OCA to SUM as an investment and that seems OK with most

There is an Arvida ...you might find it be valuable reading. https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9942-Arvida-The-latest-IPO&highlight=Arv

[jallison]

Comparing OCA to ARV as an investment is no different to comparing OCA to SUM as an investment and that seems OK with most

There is an Arvida ...you might find it be valuable reading. https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9942-Arvida-The-latest-IPO&highlight=Arv


There is a general retirement village thread which is probably a better fit for his comments

[trader_jackson]

There is a general retirement village thread which is probably a better fit for his comments

Ironic isn't it... that RYM and SUM are mentioned multiple times on this very thread, then someone (such as myself) mentioned ARV once (for the first time in a while) and it is met with accusations of that someone being "monotonous"... quite different to when RYM and SUM are mentioned.... for example, Maverick, MauroNZ, Beagle and LAC have all referenced SUM in the past 3 days (multiple times even during that period of just a few days)... all of them maintaining their same views... yet I can't seem to see any accusation of them being "monotonous"? Anyhow, just thought I'd throw ARV in there again... and despite its impressive performance since it listed over 5 years ago, I can see, ARV still isn't "in the club".

[winner69]

Ironic isn't it... that RYM and SUM are mentioned multiple times on this very thread, then someone (such as myself) mentioned ARV once (for the first time in a while) and it is met with accusations of that someone being "monotonous"... quite different to when RYM and SUM are mentioned.... for example, Maverick, MauroNZ, Beagle and LAC have all referenced SUM in the past 3 days (multiple times even during that period of just a few days)... all of them maintaining their same views... yet I can't seem to see any accusation of them being "monotonous"? Anyhow, just thought I'd throw ARV in there again... and despite its impressive performance since it listed over 5 years ago, I can see, ARV still isn't "in the club".


I’m with you t_j ....you didn’t do enough ‘wrong’ to be told off like that

Never mind, one day punters will wake up and see that Arvida is actually a bloody good story and to date a great investment.

Those who completely disregard Arvida are missing a great opportunity - their loss I reckon


I mentioned the other day on this thread Aswath Damodaran (known as ‘The King of Valuation) has a saying - Values don't come from models, but from stories (good or bad).

That applies to Arvida just as much as Oceania

[Bjauck]

your posts on the oca threads are becoming monotonous, is there not an arvida thread you can post on ,your enthusiasm for this stock is such that,if not you should start one It was a relevant post by TJ with reasons despite its brevity - a lot more relevant on this thread than many posts, including from myself :)

[Baa_Baa]

The inverse proportional rule of investment discussion groups is that the best investment companies 'right now' always get the least discussion.

RYM thread is like a graveyard, boring as, like the thread title but a cracking good investment long term. SUM thread wouldn't get a posting if the cheerleaders weren't incessantly repeating, like a good coleslaw does, but also a marvellous long term investment albeit run up way too fast short term. OCA thread gets a hammering because its the most exciting (risky) but currently worst performing, risk-on lovers with long horizons see a bargain so it will generate the most discussion. ARV is like a cross between RYM and SUM but more boring, yawn, except for one avid promoter who throws everyone else into the group of non-lovers just because they don't fill his thread with endless supportive promotion so he has to bag everyone with tiny fonts on other retirement threads.

What does that say? To me it says the monotonous comparison of retirement companies will continue and be monotonous and endless, randomly, on all threads, but more prevalent on the risky companies than the proven performers. But it still generates heaps of discussion, whereas the general retirement thread which some bright soul thought of to deflect those comparisons from single companies and blend the discussion will die a natural death.

Live with it (I tell myself). :sleep:

[King1212]

Problem is a lot of people got pissed of because macca sold out at button price of $1.20 ...SP was reaching $1.40 couple weeks ago. So...a lot of negativity on the thread....I think..let the SP settle for the next couple weeks... especially just XD..once settled..we will see SP go around $1.25 to $1.30

[couta1]

With the pay equity settlement hitting its peak this year combined with that new Dr Lady's bent for spending with little or zero thought for shareholders, methinks expenses are not going to look pretty this year but mums the word from me.

[King1212]

With the pay equity settlement hitting its peak this year combined with that new Dr Lady's bent for spending with little or zero thought for shareholders, methinks expenses are not going to look pretty this year but mums the word from me.

Wages up..care fees will be up....so don't u worry. It had been a discussion about wages....since the min wage at $16 perhours. ...and it mentioned on ARV thread too

[couta1]

Wages up..care fees will be up....so don't u worry. It had been a discussion about wages....since the min wage at $16 perhours. ...and it mentioned on ARV thread too Care fees are not determined by the company and cant just be put up, they are determined by the area DHB. PS-Any care fee deficit comes out of sale profits from independent units.

[King1212]

Care fees are not determined by the company and cant just be put up, they are determined by the area DHB.


It is up with inflation rate.....just like my salary at the government body.. every year up 3%....as well as benefit payments.. pensions etc.

What I look .at the current situation....where corona virus affecting NZ economy....ports.. forestry.. tourism.... education.. retailers.... retirement sector is the most defensive one....

[justakiwi]

As I have mentioned before, even with the latest pay increases, caregivers are not adequately reimbursed for the job we do, especially those of us in supervisor roles (for which we get an extra $1/hour gross, despite being responsible for administering medications including controlled drugs, managing emergencies and being responsible for 30-32 residents). I understand that as investors, wages are a concern to you, but care staff are the backbone of these facilities. Without us, you have no facility, no business, no investment.


Wages up..care fees will be up....so don't u worry. It had been a discussion about wages....since the min wage at $16 perhours. ...and it mentioned on ARV thread too

[King1212]

As I have mentioned before, even with the latest pay increases, caregivers are not adequately reimbursed for the job we do, especially those of us in supervisor roles (for which we get an extra $1/hour gross, despite being responsible for administering medications including controlled drugs, managing emergencies and being responsible for 30-32 residents). I understand that as investors, wages are a concern to you, but care staff are the backbone of these facilities. Without us, you have no facility, no business, no investment.

Not concern me....it concerns couta...all I said is the wages up then the care fees will also up....just like the food cost ...all up.....so basically pay rise means nothing..as all up ...rent.... electricity... Etc

[couta1]

Not concern me....it concerns couta...all I said is the wages up then the care fees will also up....just like the food cost ...all up.....so basically pay rise means nothing..as all up ...rent.... electricity... Etc It doesnt work like that in this sector but ill let you believe it does.

[King1212]

Couta...my wife is a nurse n used to work in the rest homes....so u work in the rest homes or looking to buy cheap shares?

[couta1]

Couta...my wife is a nurse n used to work in the rest homes....so u work in the rest homes or looking to buy cheap shares? I've outlined my experience(And my wife's) in this sector quite a few times in the past and if I have money available I'm always looking to buy cheap shares which could include these ones, however I only hold RYM currently as a trading parcel and have no plan to buy OCA at this point in time.

[jallison]

The inverse proportional rule of investment discussion groups is that the best investment companies 'right now' always get the least discussion.

RYM thread is like a graveyard, boring as, like the thread title but a cracking good investment long term. SUM thread wouldn't get a posting if the cheerleaders weren't incessantly repeating, like a good coleslaw does, but also a marvellous long term investment albeit run up way too fast short term. OCA thread gets a hammering because its the most exciting (risky) but currently worst performing, risk-on lovers with long horizons see a bargain so it will generate the most discussion. ARV is like a cross between RYM and SUM but more boring, yawn, except for one avid promoter who throws everyone else into the group of non-lovers just because they don't fill his thread with endless supportive promotion so he has to bag everyone with tiny fonts on other retirement threads.

What does that say? To me it says the monotonous comparison of retirement companies will continue and be monotonous and endless, randomly, on all threads, but more prevalent on the risky companies than the proven performers. But it still generates heaps of discussion, whereas the general retirement thread which some bright soul thought of to deflect those comparisons from single companies and blend the discussion will die a natural death.

Live with it (I tell myself). :sleep:


Sad lonely cheerleader he is

[percy]

Sad lonely cheerleader he is

Yet one of the few posters whose posts I respect.

Someone else I respect is OCA and HGH director, and very large shareholder in each, Gregg Tomlinson.
Real skin in both.

[dobby41]

Couta...my wife is a nurse n used to work in the rest homes....so u work in the rest homes or looking to buy cheap shares?

Where have you been?

[King1212]

Where have you been?

China..cleaning up the virus

[dobby41]

China..cleaning up the virus

Couta has outlined his experiance long before the virus.

[macduffy]

Do I sense another good thread running into a dead end...……………

:confused:

[LAC]

Might want to build a position in ARV, has all the best of those 3, but without the baggage ;) (SUM non profitable care division and inventory issues, OCA's transformation 'bottlenecks', and RYM's ridiculously high PE)
Hi TJ,
Never looked at ARV mainly because I didn’t visit any of their villages. I usually visit when I hear an open day on the radio and the 3 mentioned were close by. Never heard of anything on the radio about ARV, n i remember there was something about leaky buildings or was that MET? I can’t remember, anyways will do some research but RYM was a good call up almost 50c since my purchase;)

[winner69]

Macduffy said on another thread - Very odd. RYM shareprice gained 4.1% today while SUM other lost a cent. Must be that mysterious ratio doing its thing again.

Even OCA was up a cent today

[couta1]

Macduffy said on another thread - Very odd. RYM shareprice gained 4.1% today while SUM other lost a cent. Must be that mysterious ratio doing its thing again.

Even OCA was up a cent today See my post #4541 above, trading to that mysterious ratio which is completely logical to me.:cool:

[trader_jackson]

Hi TJ,
Never looked at ARV mainly because I didn’t visit any of their villages. I usually visit when I hear an open day on the radio and the 3 mentioned were close by. Never heard of anything on the radio about ARV, n i remember there was something about leaky buildings or was that MET? I can’t remember, anyways will do some research but RYM was a good call up almost 50c since my purchase;)

lets just say you usually hear about the ones that aren't selling or have excessive amounts of inventory building up
leaky buildings was more of a MET thing.
I look forward to hearing your thoughts, but maybe post them on the ARV thread... don't want to get a telling off like I did (even if it is just 1 post in quite a while).

[Food4Thought]

Be good buying again soon, or perhaps now ��. Big fan of the DRP

[RRR]

Bought a few more $1.11 - catching the falling knife?? Time will tell

[couta1]

Good buying at the moment.

[dr_]

i have collected lots today between 1.11 to 1.13. Better than having money in the bank. Just collecting for next 6 to 7 yrs don't care what short term is. I go long. Like my A2 Pure white gold since holding avg around $2.

[Baa_Baa]

Good buying at the moment.

7.4% of RYM, well below its 9.1% rolling average. Must be a good buy.
:)

[Maverick]

7.4% of RYM, well below its 9.1% rolling average. Must be a good buy.
:)now Baa-baa, while your post has some basic logic to it , and I do agree with you, .....right now it's all about "extreme fear". No need to complicate the situation with rational and intelligence

[TobyPascoe92]

I'm new to OCA, can someone explain to me why analysts have got revenue jumping through FY2023? Looking like a decent price to me at the moment..

[Beagle]

NAV is $1.01. Keeping powder dry and letting the bear market do its thing for the present time. Broke down through 100 day moving average this week. Macquarie timed their exit to perfection, yet again.

[Mudfish]

Simply, directors bought in at 1:20 as soon as they were allowed to after half year results were out. They clearly back their own product and believe things are on track. This is a long term share and present market conditions are poviding a great chance to pick up OCA at a fantastic price. How low it goes, is anyone's guess but if you believe in the long term and can stomach the possibility of being in the red in the short term this is a screaming buy. I topped up on Friday. Now I sit back and watch the show.

[winner69]

Simply, directors bought in at 1:20 as soon as they were allowed to after half year results were out. They clearly back their own product and believe things are on track. This is a long term share and present market conditions are poviding a great chance to pick up OCA at a fantastic price. How low it goes, is anyone's guess but if you believe in the long term and can stomach the possibility of being in the red in the short term this is a screaming buy. I topped up on Friday. Now I sit back and watch the show.

So true muddy ..... as they say values don't come from models (numbers), but from stories

Believe the story and you’ll be OK

[couta1]

Lol $1.05, put an order on too late, didnt stay at that price too long, looking for the revisit.

[Beagle]

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/410869/rest-home-worries-over-coronavirus-they-are-ignoring-us

My concern for OCA in particular (with their higher proportion of very close living care facilities), is if one or more of their facilities is affected, how quickly will it spreads to other residents living in such close proximity and will staff turn up to work if they're not provided with proper protective equipment, or even if they are ?

One cannot overlook the risk that a retirement operator that specialises in late stage care where people live in very close proximity to one another is more vulnerable in the event of an outbreak. On the other hand villages where people live independently in stand alone single level units, are probably relatively safer if they go into lockdown.

Ordinarily I would thinking buying a few cents above NTA is probably a very good move but these are extraordinary times.

[fish]

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/410869/rest-home-worries-over-coronavirus-they-are-ignoring-us

My concern for OCA in particular (with their higher proportion of very close living care facilities), is if one or more of their facilities is affected, how quickly will it spreads to other residents living in such close proximity and will staff turn up to work if they're not provided with proper protective equipment, or even if they are ?

One cannot overlook the risk that a retirement operator that specialises in late stage care where people live in very close proximity to one another is more vulnerable in the event of an outbreak. On the other hand villages where people live independently in stand alone single level units, are probably relatively safer if they go into lockdown.

Ordinarily I would thinking buying a few cents above NTA is probably a very good move but these are extraordinary times.

Be careful here Beagle-I was thinking of buying more yesterday.
Morning coffee time we had a visit from a big resthome owner.
First thing he did was shake my hands.Then he rubbed his face.
I started telling him about corvid-19.
His ignorance on cross-infection was astonishing.
He rubbed his face more and more as his discomfort increased
I made my exit with an emphasis on rubbing my hands with a lot of hand sanitiser as he looked gob-smacked when I told him he had no idea where my hands had been!
Sometimes making people uncomfortable is needed to effect change.

[Beagle]

Be careful here Beagle-I was thinking of buying more yesterday.
Morning coffee time we had a visit from a big resthome owner.
First thing he did was shake my hands.Then he rubbed his face.
I started telling him about corvid-19.
His ignorance on cross-infection was astonishing.
He rubbed his face more and more as his discomfort increased
I made my exit with an emphasis on rubbing my hands with a lot of hand sanitiser as he looked gob-smacked when I told him he had no idea where my hands had been!
Sometimes making people uncomfortable is needed to effect change.

Good on you mate for doing your best to raise awareness. This issue of shaking hands is an extremely difficult social issue now. When someone extends their hand to you to shake it, normal protocol is to shake their hand. Its quite frankly extremely awkward to do anything else... but its up to highly intelligent folks on here like you, I and others to make people aware of the risks.
If your profession that conversation could flow quite easily as part of normal healthcare advice but like what happened to me on Sunday at Church, heaps of your friends and acquittance's greet each other in the customary way. I made the very conscious decision not to touch my face, but you have to be very conscious of maintaining one's vigilance in that regard as habits are difficult to break and I ended up washing my hands 4 times in the time I was there but I am certain others were not taking such precautions.

How soon before all doctors and their staff have to start wearing masks all day to protect themselves and are there enough to go around ? How do your support staff feel at present, really nervous ? How many people out there are asymptomatic already and spreading this around ?

Sheeting this back to OCA- They have an excellent reputation with care and I know most workers in their facilities are not into it for the money, most are really dedicated caring people but if those nurses and caregivers are not provided with first rate protective equipment...who could blame them for putting their health and their families health first ? Will caregiver staff retention become a really major issue going forward ? Will all late stage care service provider facilities have adequate supplies of full hazmat suits, masks, gloves, googles e.t.c. ?

From a conceptual perspective, Contrast OCA's intense care provision risks with say a "theoretical" retirement village with all single stand alone independent living units. The latter village goes into lockdown and a local supermarket does regular food package deliveries to everyone's door. I think the contrast in risk is quite stark.

[fish]

Good on you mate for doing your best to raise awareness. This issue of shaking hands is an extremely difficult social issue now. When someone extends their hand to you to shake it, normal protocol is to shake their hand. Its quite frankly extremely awkward to do anything else... but its up to highly intelligent folks on here like you, I and others to make people aware of the risks.
If your profession that conversation could flow quite easily as part of normal healthcare advice but like what happened to me on Sunday at Church, heaps of your friends and acquittance's greet each other in the customary way. I made the very conscious decision not to touch my face, but you have to be very conscious of maintaining one's vigilance in that regard as habits are difficult to break and I ended up washing my hands 4 times in the time I was there but I am certain others were not taking such precautions.

How soon before all doctors and their staff have to start wearing masks all day to protect themselves and are there enough to go around ? How do your support staff feel at present, really nervous ? How many people out there are asymptomatic already and spreading this around ?

Sheeting this back to OCA- They have an excellent reputation with care and I know most workers in their facilities are not into it for the money, most are really dedicated caring people but if those nurses and caregivers are not provided with first rate protective equipment...who could blame them for putting their health and their families health first ? Will caregiver staff retention become a really major issue going forward ? Will all late stage care service provider facilities have adequate supplies of full hazmat suits, masks, gloves, googles e.t.c. ?
Absolutely nothing usefufrom DHB/public health.
We have 5 n-95masks for 40 staff.
DHB has said our standard surgical mask is sufficient !
We our not prepared and no one will speak out,-muzzled by dhb/pho.
No testing for suspected community spread

I am officially retiring from my partnership at end month(I gave notice 9 months ago) but will keep my registration as I am not retiring but have numerous options

[Beagle]

Absolutely nothing usefufrom DHB/public health. Asleep at the wheel ?
We have 5 n-95masks for 40 staff. Oh my goodness that's truly atrocious. Staff retention without appropriate protective equipment could be the biggest issue going forward the entire sector faces. Who could blame them for putting their own health and the health of their families first if they don't have proper protective equipment ?
DHB has said our standard surgical mask is sufficient ! YEAH RIGHT - Sorry but its too early for a Tui.
We our not prepared and no one will speak out,-muzzled by dhb/pho. :scared:
No testing for suspected community spread :scared::scared::scared:
I am officially retiring from my partnership at end month(I gave notice 9 months ago) but will keep my registration as I am not retiring but have numerous options

Fair enough, you were retiring anyway, a long time before anyone knew about this virus so nobody can say you are running away from the problem. Honestly it has crossed my mind to retire early too but I have been semi retired for years anyway, (in case anyone was wondering with the prolific nature of my posting on here lol) and can do most of my work through electronic means.

[Onion]

in case anyone was wondering with the prolific nature of my posting on here lol

I have long wondered if your clients know that they are paying you to post on here! :D

[couta1]

I have long wondered if your clients know that they are paying you to post on here! :D Unbeknown to them it's been built into his hourly rate.:eek2:

[justakiwi]

So is the contrast in the individuals’ level of physical ability, health status, need for intervention and need for individual/personal care. They are in the rest home/hospital care environment for a reason. So yes, perhaps this increases their risk - who knows. But what alternative is there for these people?

As I said, all we can do is our best.


I think the contrast in risk is quite stark.

[couta1]

So is the contrast in the individuals’ level of physical ability, health status, need for intervention and need for individual/personal care. They are in the rest home/hospital care environment for a reason. So yes, perhaps this increases their risk - who knows. But what alternative is there for these people?

As I said, all we can do is our best. In my 30 yrs of visiting the elderly in their own homes I have seen it all, some things you just wouldnt believe and I can honestly say the majority of them would be far better cared for in a retirement village regardless of any risks like this virus.

[justakiwi]

That is a very good point.


In my 30 yrs of visiting the elderly in their own homes I have seen it all, some things you just wouldnt believe and I can honestly say the majority of them would be far better cared for in a retirement village regardless of any risks like this virus.

[Beagle]

I have long wondered if your clients know that they are paying you to post on here! :D


Unbeknown to them it's been built into his hourly rate.:eek2:

LOL you cheeky mutts.

[winner69]

We’ll see how this pans out

Victim works in nursing home for the elderly

https://www.smh.com.au/national/woman-catches-coronavirus-in-australia-40-sydney-hospital-staff-quarantined-20200304-p546lf.html

[King1212]

we could see OCA down to $.80....

[couta1]

we could see OCA down to $.80.... Can I have some of those meds your on. Lol

[dobby41]

we could see OCA down to $.80....

We might - or we might not.
You basing that on anything you'd like to share or just plucking figures out?

[couta1]

We might - or we might not.
You basing that on anything you'd like to share or just plucking figures out? Just his normal random downramping.

[King1212]

Can I have some of those meds your on. Lol

no need med couta....the world is at the tipping point...as far as we hate Beagle behaving badly...i think he could be right....

[Beagle]

We’ll see how this pans out

Victim works in nursing home for the elderly

https://www.smh.com.au/national/woman-catches-coronavirus-in-australia-40-sydney-hospital-staff-quarantined-20200304-p546lf.html

WOW that's got to be a big worry.


We might - or we might not.
You basing that on anything you'd like to share or just plucking figures out?

Some other dog reckoned that 80 cents might be a good buy point :D

[couta1]

Retirement villages are far more prepared to deal with viral outbreaks than the general public. PS-Go and have a study up on the Norovirus and its signs and symptoms etc etc to see what all villages deal with every couple of years or so.

[Ggcc]

we could see OCA down to $.80....

If so I might go whole hog into this share

[dobby41]

Retirement villages are far more prepared to deal with viral outbreaks than the general public. PS-Go and have a study up on the Norovirus and its signs and symptoms etc etc to see what all villages deal with every couple of years or so.

That's what I was thinking.
People seem to think that Corvid 19 is the only virus in town - it's just the new kid on the block for these places to deal with.
That's why I was disappointed in the news article above from the home up north.

[TideMan]

A friend has just returned from a cruise. Her mother is in SUM other rest home.
She is not allowed to visit her mother for 2 weeks.
Her mother is going on a cruise. She will have to self-isolate in her room for 2 weeks when she returns.

Sounds pretty draconian, but I guess they're putting the procedures in place.

[King1212]

Well...let see...in couple weeks....there is a cheeky buyer at 85c now.....

[Timesurfer]

Retirement homes are experiencing a hiccup in their building program. I am hearing that at least the electrical components of new builds are running out of supplies because of the China issue and work on a local retirement village has stopped.

[BlackPeter]

Retirement homes are experiencing a hiccup in their building program. I am hearing that at least the electrical components of new builds are running out of supplies because of the China issue and work on a local retirement village has stopped.

Might be just a bonus ... given that everybody is telling us that the sales side is (in general) a bit soft anyway?

Better not building more and selling instead the ones they already got. Lower supply is the recipe to higher margins :);

[Beagle]

Have a good long look at the chart image of OCA provided below. For nearly a whole year in 2019 the shares were trading in a tight range around $1.05. Very shortly before Macquarie unloaded they suddenly shot right up to $1.39 and Macquarie unloaded their stake shortly afterwards at the "very special price" of $1.20 and now they have reverted to where they were.

In a quiet moment, (if there is such a thing in this market) one could ponder the possibility of whether some party friendly to Macquarie stepped in to bid this up and help them offload at a very advantageous price ? Surely not ? 11098

[BlackPeter]

...
In a quiet moment, (if there is such a thing in this market) one could ponder the possibility of whether some party friendly to Macquarie stepped in to bid this up and help them offload at a very advantageous price ? Surely not ?

Impossible.

Macquarie does not have friends :p;

[Food4Thought]

Have a good long look at the chart image of OCA provided below. For nearly a whole year in 2019 the shares were trading in a tight range around $1.05. Very shortly before Macquarie unloaded they suddenly shot right up to $1.39 and Macquarie unloaded their stake shortly afterwards at the "very special price" of $1.20 and now they have reverted to where they were.

In a quiet moment, (if there is such a thing in this market) one could ponder the possibility of whether some party friendly to Macquarie stepped in to bid this up and help them offload at a very advantageous price ? Surely not ? 11098

Remember how Summerset looked so good for ages but because Barlow did a sneaky weasel and sold out before announcement we ended up having years of suppressed SUM share price?

OCA had to battle the over hanging risk of a market dump not favouring it.

All sorts of possibilities
... as well as a thirst for the retirement sector.

For the current fear on the streets... my guess is a good drop below $1 due to a sell sell sell trigger happening beyond normal recent market reactions.

What is people's (businesses) risk parameter. At what point will you go... ahhh, yes, 20% is ok... 25% is less ok... 35% below purchase price is... etc

MAC sure did time their sale well and with OCAs nice divi to support a long term holders good returns...

Or pwrhaps they thought of the risk... heard a rumor about Corona and thought let's call it a day and get out and pass on the risk.

I could keep brainstorming for hours on this.
Enjoy your posts Beagle. One of my favourite dogs, my aunty had a beauty of a Beagle growing up.

Don't let it near the corn fields. Or it would be gone for a few days, slip the lead, chasing rabbits

Heading into hidding for a week may result in a whole lot of good. Fishing and all those relaxing hobbies can be a good way to reduce stress and recover from anything a bit quicker than those following the negative bounce about.

There's always eb and flow 🌓

[Beagle]

"Sneaky Weasel" :lol: I love it. Yes I remember it very well mate and some may recall that a lot of very loud Beagle barking ensued :)...and they ended up having to change their insider trading policies so SUM good came out of all the noise :D

Yes there's lot of possibilities...but my favourite conspiracy theory about the mysterious surge in the share price is as above.

Even unloved mutts like Macquarie could theoretically buy a supportive friend if the price was right ;)

I would think this retesting the IPO price around the late 70 cent range is not beyond the realm of possibility in a very bad prolonged recession...

I will keep my powder dry and kennel well stocked and yes our much loved Beagle was a very naughty and mischievous and rather fat dog too, not unlike me.

[winner69]

Wasn’t long ago share price hit $1.39 and today less than a buck.

Those who got the deal of the century a month ago with the 250 million Macquarie discards must be a bit gutted now

[BlackPeter]

Wasn’t long ago share price hit $1.39 and today less than a buck.

Those who got the deal of the century a month ago with the 250 million Macquarie discards must be a bit gutted now

I guess one must see these things a bit philosophical. My strong bear (BBOZ) went more up than my OCA went down; This is what hedges are for :);

As well - my average purchase price into OCA is around 94 cents anyway, i.e. still in the black anyway ;):

[Beagle]

Wasn’t long ago share price hit $1.39 and today less than a buck.

Those who got the deal of the century a month ago with the 250 million Macquarie discards must be a bit gutted now

Trying to have a feed out of the big dog's bowl was never going to end well. I would have thought people would have learned that with the last placement they engineered.

[peat]

Enjoying the opportunity to buy below NTA.

NTA has changed... at least for a while.

[peat]

Even lower interest rates may drive it up.

yes but we all know these lower interest rates create mal-investments - projects which under any normal economic scenario simply wouldn't stack up. I guess the concern is that one day interest rates will have to normalise even if the central banks don't want them to.

[Cadalac123]

I don't know if reducing rates further was the right reaction to a fear led market downtumble. Sadly, we may see the consequences of this later on ?next year with a similar pseudo-recession type phenomenon taking place in the market. A trader may argue this is a good thing to help create pull back for buying opportunities - glass half full.

[dobby41]

Peat. You may well be right. After a decade of low rates, we may be getting too used to it. Can’t see any medium term catalyst for higher rates.

Could it be that low interest rates are the norm and the high interest rates of our memories are the aberration?

[winner69]

“CAN’T HAVE TOO MANY OCEANIA”

Still holds true

[petty]

“CAN’T HAVE TOO MANY OCEANIA”

Still holds true

Harbour and Jarden seem to disgree. Both reducing their holding this morning. Or am I misunderstanding the update.

Gutted I was in meetings yesterday and missed out on the 95c shares.

[Entrep]

Harbour and Jarden seem to disgree. Both reducing their holding this morning. Or am I misunderstanding the update.

Gutted I was in meetings yesterday and missed out on the 95c shares.

I was partially filled at 95c before the reversal. I suspect will get another chance

[BlackPeter]

I was partially filled at 95c before the reversal. I suspect will get another chance

Just be not too greedy - I'd love to get some more as well if it falls below my average purchase price (which is slightly below 95 cents) :).

[Beagle]

Harbour and Jarden seem to disgree. Both reducing their holding this morning. Or am I misunderstanding the update.

Gutted I was in meetings yesterday and missed out on the 95c shares.

Be patient, I think you'll get another chance.

[Food4Thought]

Be patient, I think you'll get another chance.

I think so too. I think that 80c potental is good possobility if we get to the situation like Italy and Iran.

Also as lock downs happen more and more procedures are put in place in Australia.

Plenty of people won't buy into NZ or AUS as it's outside their comfort and Perception zone.

I will wait, sitting on my hands. End of this month will show a bit more of how this big bad flu turns out.

[Cadalac123]

Yeah bro I’m sure a lockdown is going to happen in Auckland /s

[Blue Skies]

[QUOTE=Food4Thought;797614]I think so too. I think that 80c potental is good possobility if we get to the situation like Italy and Iran.


Hopefully mitigating against that, is our low population density & cultural differences.
We don't have the mass public transport systems which force huge number of people into tightly confined spaces, or the pop density of cities in those countries which help community spread.
e.g. noticing in supermarkets in Auckland, people politely giving each other much greater 'personal space' , everyone very aware of the people around them & how close they are.

[allfromacell]

[QUOTE=Food4Thought;797614]I think so too. I think that 80c potental is good possobility if we get to the situation like Italy and Iran.


Hopefully mitigating against that, is our low population density & cultural differences.
We don't have the mass public transport systems which force huge number of people into tightly confined spaces, or the pop density of cities in those countries which help community spread.
e.g. noticing in supermarkets in Auckland, people politely giving each other much greater 'personal space' , everyone very aware of the people around them & how close they are.

Watch the flu season be one of the best on record, in our office we've setup a disinfectant station where to pass through the door you have to use the hand sanitizer lol. Anyone with even a sniffle is working from home, people's behavior everywhere is very different which is fantastic.

Hopefully some of the good habits stick next year after this is all said and done and AIR is back to paying dividends after missing just the one.

Edit: sorry thought I was in the AIR thread

[King1212]

I call it 80c ...wait till April or May.... infection is low here because the weather is not cold enough.m

[Entrep]

In like Flynn at 95c

[Beagle]

If the MET deal fails for any reason the whole sector is going to come under even more pressure. If Carona virus gets into these villages, look out as sales will fall off the face of a cliff ! Its quite possible that those who missed out on the IPO in 2017 at 79 cents might get a fresh opportunity.

[King1212]

Well.. today...we might see $.80.....

[bull....]

might be 10c if they get a outbreak in one of the villages

[King1212]

Mayday....mayday.. mayday....

[fish]

Well.. today...we might see $.80.....

It certainly is a possibility.
Trying to pick a low is guessing of course.
What I am more interested about is whether this is a safe investment-ie in the long-term is there any significant risk of losing on investing now?

[King1212]

It certainly is a possibility.
Trying to pick a low is guessing of course.
What I am more interested about is whether this is a safe investment-ie in the long-term is there any significant risk of losing on investing now?

That would be a million dollar question. Our great Beagle will be able to help u with his Crystal ball....

[bull....]

It certainly is a possibility.
Trying to pick a low is guessing of course.
What I am more interested about is whether this is a safe investment-ie in the long-term is there any significant risk of losing on investing now?

be only if they cant service there debt ( no re sales , or development margins from sales builds) . the fact they do property development means rthey need credit also. an outbreak in a centre would affecrt all these factors. better to wait till virus risk gone in my opinion. same risks for all these type of stocks

[fish]

thanks for your opinion-i will stop watching the price and instead enjoy the day

[Food4Thought]

thanks for your opinion-i will stop watching the price and instead enjoy the day

It did hit 80c and slightly above 80c now
Incredible.

And just before a weekend

Some new predictions Beagle?

[Beagle]

It did hit 80c and slightly above 80c now
Incredible.

And just before a weekend

Some new predictions Beagle?

You know me too well. Happy to bark about almost anything.
Yes 80 cents is my target price BUT as noted in the other stock shopping thread the caveat with any shopping list of stocks must include some reasonable TA indicator that its found a bottom.

Regardless of how sexy this looks at the original IPO price or quite possibly significantly less I am going to make any future investment decisions "out of an abundance of caution" so will wait for a clear sign the bottom is in. Half sized position when it breaks back up through the 30 day moving average and full sized position when the new uptrend is confirmed by a break up through the 100 day MA. This sort of cautious strategy will protect me from the prospect of a severe recession morphing into a great depression. Anyone who thinks we're not in for "at best" a severe recession is in denial, in my opinion.

I think this will test 75 cents in the short term. Where it goes from there...your guess is as good as mine.

[Meister]

Do you think the current price is just full market panic or are there genuine concerns about the long term value of NZ real-estate that might affect these players?
VERY tempting to just jump all-in here. Not a bad company, dividend paying, not directly tied to tourism or anything getting hit ultra hard by the current situation, and price shot to hell...

[Food4Thought]

You know me too well. Happy to bark about almost anything.
Yes 80 cents is my target price BUT as noted in the other stock shopping thread the caveat with any shopping list of stocks must include some reasonable TA indicator that its found a bottom.

Regardless of how sexy this looks at the original IPO price or quite possibly significantly less I am going to make any future investment decisions "out of an abundance of caution" so will wait for a clear sign the bottom is in. Half sized position when it breaks back up through the 30 day moving average and full sized position when the new uptrend is confirmed by a break up through the 100 day MA. This sort of cautious strategy will protect me from the prospect of a severe recession morphing into a great depression. Anyone who thinks we're not in for "at best" a severe recession is in denial, in my opinion.

I think this will test 75 cents in the short term. Where it goes from there...your guess is as good as mine.

On the way to 60c we go. Only a 25% discount to the IPO... probably getting somewhere at that price.

Still believe a great business to be in. Yet I'll wait a while longer. I think this is much bigger for Aus and NZ than some other economies will experience.

[Beagle]

Do you think the current price is just full market panic or are there genuine concerns about the long term value of NZ real-estate that might affect these players?
VERY tempting to just jump all-in here. Not a bad company, dividend paying, not directly tied to tourism or anything getting hit ultra hard by the current situation, and price shot to hell...

Both. In my view real estate comes under serious pressure in a protracted deep recession. People may find it very difficult to get bank finance and from a transactional point of view, people may find it harder to sell their home to move into a retirement facility so there could be a fall off in demand from that aspect.
Secondly, if the virus manifests itself in one or more retirement villages, (while I concede objectively people are probably just as safe or potentially even safer in retirement villages) its all about how the public perceive their safety and perception is everything. If people think they are safer in their own home they'll stay there so sales could dry up significantly.

[trader_jackson]

Both. In my view real estate comes under serious pressure in a protracted deep recession. People may find it very difficult to get bank finance and from a transactional point of view, people may find it harder to sell their home to move into a retirement facility so there could be a fall off in demand from that aspect.
Secondly, if the virus manifests itself in one or more retirement villages, (while I concede objectively people are probably just as safe or potentially even safer in retirement villages) its all about how the public perceive their safety and perception is everything. If people think they are safer in their own home they'll stay there so sales could dry up significantly.

Didn't RYM continue to increase underlying profit throughout the GFC?
Alot of revenue for OCA comes from government providing some level of security (vs say SUM which is very reliant on their property side of things)

This as $1.23 1 month ago... now looks to be going sub 70 cents (and I didn't really think $1.23 was 'excessive' or 'wildly overvalued')... it would seem almost too good to be true (even at sub 80 cents)... OCA never rose as high as ARV, SUM, or RYM... and now it has crashed even harder... what am I missing?

[bull....]

that they are basically property development companies . for history look at 1987 crash and how property development companies faired

[Beagle]

Didn't RYM continue to increase underlying profit throughout the GFC?
Alot of revenue for OCA comes from government providing some level of security (vs say SUM which is very reliant on their property side of things)

This as $1.23 1 month ago... now looks to be going sub 70 cents (and I didn't really think $1.23 was 'excessive' or 'wildly overvalued')... it would seem almost too good to be true (even at sub 80 cents)... OCA never rose as high as ARV, SUM, or RYM... and now it has crashed even harder... what am I missing?

Fear and momentum and the market totally saturated with unsold units before this GFC MK2 as well as the market per se being serviced with many competitors which wasn't the case with GFC MK1 for RYM. Checked out how far SUM, ARV and RYM has fallen in the last month ? The whole sector is in the toilet apart from shareholders hoping their MET will still get taken over. (Good luck with that).

[James108]

The risk of the virus getting in retirement villages is an existential threat in my view, which could weigh on the image of retirement villages for years (decades if it is bad) to come. As well as the impact of a recession on property development. Having said that you would think the 'almost' closing of the border would alleviate some of the above risk and the OCR cut would also provide a boost.

Interesting times.

[bull....]

china just released stats saying chinese property market has been impacted by the virus

[Food4Thought]

Didn't RYM continue to increase underlying profit throughout the GFC?
Alot of revenue for OCA comes from government providing some level of security (vs say SUM which is very reliant on their property side of things)

This as $1.23 1 month ago... now looks to be going sub 70 cents (and I didn't really think $1.23 was 'excessive' or 'wildly overvalued')... it would seem almost too good to be true (even at sub 80 cents)... OCA never rose as high as ARV, SUM, or RYM... and now it has crashed even harder... what am I missing?

Hi TJ

OCA went IPO in July 2017.
Very little history. Listed at 80c. I would still be in the green if I kept my SUM, bought 8-10 years ago.

I learn the hard way trying to spot the bottom during GFC and also, this is unprecedented as it will seriously influence Australia and New Zealand economy.

A reccession is one thing, a depression is another.

I believe OCA is a solid company, yet many variables at the moment with a great deal of uncertainty.

The stimulus will in my will cause a temporary increase in values and then the really bad news will come out, bit by bit.

The trend is your friend

[peat]

it will seriously influence Australia and New Zealand economy.


but they may be the first to kick off again given their trade with China which is likely to recover sooner than freer nations.

[whatsup]

Always wondered who and why the S P was pushed up from early Dec when it was in the low $1.05's ( IMHO where it still belongs) and from the old BIL share play book now can be bought @ $1.20ish, now is that a wise bet in this market ?

Well well well , back below the listing price !

[winner69]

The risk of the virus getting in retirement villages is an existential threat in my view, which could weigh on the image of retirement villages for years (decades if it is bad) to come. As well as the impact of a recession on property development. Having said that you would think the 'almost' closing of the border would alleviate some of the above risk and the OCR cut would also provide a boost.

Interesting times.

Hope what happens in the US somewhere doesn’t happen here ...20 plus residents in a home left to die because they couldn’t find anybody to look after and care for them

[Beagle]

Hope what happens in the US somewhere doesn’t happen here ...20 plus residents in a home left to die because they couldn’t find anybody to look after and care for them

I think that's the greatest fear.

[trader_jackson]

OCA exactly 4 weeks ago was $1.23, OCA's NAV is $1.14, OCA's NTA is $1.01, OCA's IPO was 79 cents (nearly exactly 3 years ago), the lowest prior to today was 78 cents... OCA's share price is now 68 cents

I agree with the above around the fear and subsequent stigma around an outbreak at one of their facilities/locations, but OCA is trading at a discount of 33% - this is the largest discount of all the retirement operators (basically as large as MET's was - prior to the takeover), and probably any and all property related stocks on the NZX

I believe their NTA is largely supported by residential property (not commercial or retail office space, which I do believe could be in for a rougher time than residential property)... could it be that Mr Market pricing a fall in residential property of 33%? [if that is the case, the banks have ALOT to worry about! far more than they did during the GFC or 1987 or any other time in NZ history basically!] Or is OCA not telling us something?

I'm topping up

[macduffy]

It's just general fear and (mild) panic in the market, t j. Hold tight!

:cool:

[bull....]

OCA will be toast following 1 infection in a facility just like the rest

[trader_jackson]

OCA will be toast following 1 infection in a facility just like the rest

Please break it down how OCA will be toast exactly? I may agree with such an explanation and so I'd be interesting to hear how and why this would impact their nearly 30 villages instantaneously.

[bull....]

Please break it down how OCA will be toast exactly? I may agree with such an explanation and so I'd be interesting to hear how and why this would impact their nearly 30 villages instantaneously.

i have already explained on tthe thread

[King1212]

Wow..never thought will go this low. Macca would laughing at the other side....

How much lower this puppies can go?

[Beagle]

In 2019 MET were at one point trading at $4.20, a deeper discount of exactly 40% to NTA. I know, I bought some very close to that figure.
This was without the virus risk. I will leave others to make an assessment of where their share price might go if the takeover offer fails for any reason but I would have thought its a given it would test the previous low of $4.20.

A 40% discount to NTA for OCA suggests $1.01 x 0.6 = 60.6 cents. Food for thought. Is it possible that we could see a 50% discount to NTA if this virus goes rampant at a few facilities or potentially even a deeper discount ? Who is to say how this might play itself out ?

[Bjauck]

OCA will be toast following 1 infection in a facility just like the rest Do we not need to make a distinction between the independent ORA village units and the rest home/hospital facilities?

If the infection rate amongst the villagers is different compared to the same age group in the community then that could either have a positive or negative impact. Why should we not see people in villages actually have a better outcome? After all, it may be that villages can be better cocooned during the peak of the epidemic, resulting in a smaller infection rate than for those in the same age group in the outside community.

For the rest home/hospital facilities, what is the alternative for the care of those who need that level of care? How rest homes cope with this epidemic may lead to improvement in infection control, level of health board funding during epidemics, and other processes.

[mp52]

Do we not need to make a distinction between the independent ORA village units and the rest home/hospital facilities?

Just riffing, upside of either type is:

Ease of oversight and management of H&S in regard to service providers contact with residents (i.e. most are staff)
Proximity of residents and established billing systems makes it easier to launch new services and strategies for residents to mitigate risk (e.g. shopping and delivery services).
No safer alternatives appear to exist! Cohabiting with family increases risk of transfer. Move to an independent dwelling would in most cases increase risk of community exposure (through increased reliance on family or independent service providers - neither likely to have the same level of coordinated health management provided by a retirement village/home.
Not a nice one think about, but thinning numbers increases churn of new customers and purchase contracts.


Downside

If infection did take hold, the close proximity of residents in serviced apartment or rest home level care, relative health of these residents and use of shared facilities could hit this cohort hard.
Public perception of increased risk within this environment - possibly supported by sloppy mortality statistics from journalists (e.g. incorrectly correlating cohorts of elderly within and outside retirement villages with different health profiles).
Future customers holding-off until the crisis has passed and perhaps hoping for a surplus of units/rooms offering discounted entry.

[Bjauck]

...


Public perception of increased risk within this environment - possibly supported by sloppy mortality statistics from journalists (e.g. incorrectly correlating cohorts of elderly within and outside retirement villages with different health profiles).
Future customers holding-off until the crisis has passed and perhaps hoping for a surplus of units/rooms offering discounted entry.


Thanks for the summary of issues. There is a sloppy journalism about...These two points I see as a real risk. If there are a batch of infections in (for example) an Oceania facility or village, this would make a good headline and would be a talking point.

That could happen even despite the infection rate among all (for example) Oceania facilities remaining below the infection rate in the same age group in the community at large. It could also happen even if the infection rate were below the neighbourhood surrounding the particular Oceania facility.

In relation to serviced apartments and rest homes, this is an unfortunate but necessary risk. Some people with needs will always need close quarters one-on-one or high needs two-on-one care. Roll on increased robotic care?

[Bjauck]

I sometimes visit someone in an ORA villa at my local oceania village. It already has protection measures in place for the the independent villa residents. Every visitor needs to report to reception, and fill out a detailed questionnaire prior to driving to the villa.

How many older folk in their own homes have that level of security?

*Some residents have the questionnaires at their villas. The procedure is obviously evolving.

[allfromacell]

Backing the truck up here, these will double from here on the recovery.

[dabsman]

Backing the truck up here, these will double from here on the recovery.

Yes but how much further down? I sold all at $1.08 so I want to put all those funds back into OCA but very very uncertain when to jump back in

[youngatheart]

Heads of retirement companies meeting today. Hopefully this will result in a positive story that'll push up the SP...

[Rossimarnz]

Yes but how much further down? I sold all at $1.08 so I want to put all those funds back into OCA but very very uncertain when to jump back in

I did much the same. At this point I will not be re-investing until there has been an outbreak in a retirement home as I think this needs to happen before the share price recovery can begin in earnest. Please note that I am not wishing this on anyone I just think it will happen at some stage.

[BlackPeter]

Another reasonably well researched retirement village, and share price currently in a deep COVID-19 hole, though just bouncing up. Current analysts consensus is $1.24 per share. But before we get too excited - lets see how good analysts predictions have been in the past for this stock - shall we?

In February 2019 the OCA share price peaked at $1.10. At that stage the combined mental power of 4 share market analysts forecasted that over the 12 months to February 2020 the OCA shareprice will slightly rise to $1.18 (consensus), i.e. they predicted a roughly 7% share price increase.

OCA actually peaked in February at $1.24, i.e. the prediction was 5% below that value which is according to the rules still a PASS.

Looking into the consensus buy recommendation - it was in February 2019 a straight "OUTPERFORM"(7.5/10) - i.e. analysts said that the share will outperform the NZX. NZX 50 went up by 21% and OCA went up by only 13%, i.e. OCA underperformed the NZX50. Analysts have been wrong with this recommendation, majority of stocks did better - a clear "FAIL"

I am doing this exercise as well with other NZX listed stocks - the overview is here:
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?11721-How-good-are-the-forecasts-of-stockmarket-analysts

17 stock forecasts checked so far (checking for each consensus and buy recommendation);
Consensus share price forecasts correct: 4/17; analysts hitrate: 23.5%
Consensus recommendation vs NZX50 correct: 5/17; analysts hitrate: 29.4%

[trader_jackson]

OCA exactly 4 weeks ago was $1.23, OCA's NAV is $1.14, OCA's NTA is $1.01, OCA's IPO was 79 cents (nearly exactly 3 years ago), the lowest prior to today was 78 cents... OCA's share price is now 68 cents

I agree with the above around the fear and subsequent stigma around an outbreak at one of their facilities/locations, but OCA is trading at a discount of 33% - this is the largest discount of all the retirement operators (basically as large as MET's was - prior to the takeover), and probably any and all property related stocks on the NZX

I believe their NTA is largely supported by residential property (not commercial or retail office space, which I do believe could be in for a rougher time than residential property)... could it be that Mr Market pricing a fall in residential property of 33%? [if that is the case, the banks have ALOT to worry about! far more than they did during the GFC or 1987 or any other time in NZ history basically!] Or is OCA not telling us something?

I'm topping up

Not surprising to see OCA booming today - 60c was just getting stupid really.
It doesn't have anywhere near the same issues as MET (in terms of their buildings possibly requiring huge remediation, hence a sizable discount should be applied to NTA regardless of the virus)

[Maverick]

I thought it proper to post where I'm at with OCA since I've been such an strong advocate and have recently gone very quiet.


Basically I stopped reading sharetrader the last month as the analysis and well thought out opinions have swapped out for overwhelming talk of Armageddon . This has not been personally helpful while I try to get a perspective on this thing without being highjacked by a wave of a panic feeling every 30 minutes.(maybe that's 10 minutes if I'm looking at the “stuff” and share price too!)


What I've decided for myself (after discussions with senior DHB staff, and village operators)…..
-I completely disagree with the current market sentiment that rest homes are the worst place for elderly to be. I think the market has this 100 % wrong.(Just A Kiwi‘s ST posts give great insight of the heartfelt care that happens within the walls to protect the clients, thank you for posting ) .
-Villages already have good strategies in place, they can lock down in a moment. All understand,as it really is life and death.
-The oldies don't have to fret about going out into the world of terror to hoard toilet paper.
-They also have “bought” with their DMFs, a nurse that they might not get if they rocked up to the local DHB with a cough.
-Plus they are with their “own kind” as opposed to sharing the outside world with some of the dumbass*s out there are not willing or capable of considering other people's potential deaths.

So I've concluded the fear priced in by investors of an outbreak routing through villages is misguided. I anticipate that rest homes will soon be seen as safe zones, Noah's arks if you will.


Financially, OCA’s story is a future story currently only at an earlier stage. Profits will be reaped increasingly in the 6 months to 7 years ahead from what is only being built now. So we can keep on building and worry about filling them long after the virus has become " too boring to talk about."


Will we run out of old people wanting to live in a village ? Will property collapse?
No and no, just maybe, it will soften but it will be slight and short term.


I'm continuing to hold expecting good dividends going forward and very confident in OCA’s balance sheet, directors, management and staff to keep the project moving forward as planned.


All the while our clients can continue to live in the safe environment they are paying us handsomely for while some others will watch with envy that they wish they could be in one too.


I know others will have quite different opinions( and the market agrees with you for now). Just letting you know where I'm at if interested

[percy]

Excellent post.

Not allowed to add to your reputation.
Must spread it around.
Yeah Right,but who.????????????..............lol.

[Blue Skies]

Thanks Maverick, great post.
I'm a long term holder too with at least a 10 year time frame. Sentiment is a funny thing, look at FPH initially dropping hard but now flying!

The people I know in villages feel far safer with a skilled & caring moat around them & freely available nursing care than if they were in their own homes by themselves trying to cope with the risks of transmission while shopping, visits to the chemist & GP, home maintenance people etc .

[Bjauck]

...
-I completely disagree with the current market sentiment that rest homes are the worst place for elderly to be. I think the market has this 100 % wrong.(Just A Kiwi‘s ST posts give great insight of the heartfelt care that happens within the walls to protect the clients, thank you for posting ) .
-Villages already have good strategies in place, can lock down in a moment. All understands as it really is life and death. .... Thanks for your research and post. I have come to the same conclusion too. I have been impressed with the efforts that my local village has already undertaken to ensure that the village and facilities are safer zones.

[silverblizzard888]

Everyones trying to predict certainty out of uncertainty and to be fair its not ideal. Pricing of OCA shares is out right low right now, but theres also fear when this virus hits every city in NZ. 8 new cases today, its only a matter of time before it makes it into retirement homes and all these companies will have quite a difficult situation on their hands. Invest knowing you will be holding at least next 12 months, no quick rebound, but there is still sound fundamentals at the end of the day. Like all things currently it gets much worse before it gets better.

[Beagle]

Dog gone it, I think you've made some good points Maverick BUT facts are one thing and perception is quite another. At the moment its all about perception.
Was a good update from the company today. No question long term value is on offer at the current price. Will it go lower still ? That as they say, is the $64,000 question.

[Lunar K9]

Thanks Maverick, nice one. Spot on with the change in tone of the forum.

[macduffy]

Yes, a great post, Maverick. I agree 100%!

:t_up:

[Beagle]

Thanks Maverick, nice one. Spot on with the change in tone of the forum.

The inconvenient truth my K9 friend is those barking out caution have been dead right and did so against a veritable tidal wave of people assuring us in the $1.00 - $1.10 range there was deep value on offer at that sort of price and many others who thought they got a screaming bargain from Macquarie at $1.20. Before anyone goes whacking the messenger on the nose with a rolled up newspaper, stop and think whether they were right to be barking out caution ! In a nutshell, don't shoot the messenger especially when he's been right ! Disc: Dipped the front edge of one paw in the water today at 60 cents, without any TA signal. Probably stupid but I guess I can always console myself I paid exactly half what others did to take a stake off Macquarie.

[winner69]

CAN NEVER HAVE TOO MANY OCEANIA

or whatever the cry was

[trader_jackson]

CAN NEVER HAVE TOO MANY OCEANIA

or whatever the cry was

I was singing that as my 60c buy order was filled!

[youngatheart]

If the Dow Jones has another rough day tomorrow - as its expected, futures down 600pts right now - won't these shares be cheaper tomorrow?....

[blackcap]

If the Dow Jones has another rough day tomorrow - as its expected, futures down 600pts right now - won't these shares be cheaper tomorrow?....

No. The shares now have already priced in a drop in the Dow of 750 points or whatever it is the futures are saying. If the dow only drops 400 points then NZ will but up (all other things being equal). If however the Dow would drop by more than 750 points then NZ would be down (all things being equal).

[ratkin]

Sounds like todays announcement sucked a few in. They talking a brave fight, but the virus will decide how secure the residents are.
We used to see lots of these sort of announcements in 2008, not saying much but designed to stop shareprices from slipping down

[Food4Thought]

Sounds like todays announcement sucked a few in. They talking a brave fight, but the virus will decide how secure the residents are.
We used to see lots of these sort of announcements in 2008, not saying much but designed to stop shareprices from slipping down

It will work for a short period. Then I believe more fear kicks in. Especially with closed borders, emptying shelves and the numbers growing.

Tempting. Wish there was an actual sign of stability.

Many unknowns

Best wishes to holders

[Raz]

Sounds like todays announcement sucked a few in. They talking a brave fight, but the virus will decide how secure the residents are.
We used to see lots of these sort of announcements in 2008, not saying much but designed to stop share prices from slipping down

I recall a MOH investigation across a several rest homes (across companies) in a certain city last year as the fatality rate from the flu season and resulting pneumonia spiked. It happens often like cruse ships with norovirus ....it an environment conducive to it. They keep it on the down low yet it often occurs..if this gets a hold I'm placing my money it will happen in at least one rest home ..when that happens i will look at buying in early. The systems have been there all along and they have failed constantly..nothing to do with level of care or the staff care.

This time it will get publicity, the PR risk is substantial.

[peat]

Dark days ahead for the entire industry in my opinion.



Disc: Dipped the front edge of one paw in the water today at 60 cents, without any TA signal.

bipolar right there

that was the quickest depression I've ever heard of
what about the end of the world tho!

maybe its been postponed.?

If it helps Beagle I can see 2 TA signals but they're not very definitive and wouldn't normally inspire a position

RSI Divergence
Hammer Candle

11129

[Beagle]

Yeah...lack of discipline today. Was literally just dipping one claw of one paw in the water. Got to learn to sit on my paws.
Thought I might have seen an abandoned baby TA sign Peat lol
Suppose I can console myself its halved in just a few weeks since Macquarie sold out.

[King1212]

U said... beagle..it will $.50 c...if the outbreak..then will $.25c......

[Beagle]

U said... beagle..it will $.50 c...if the outbreak..then will $.25c......
Not to worry mate, just a really tiny opening position.

[winner69]

Yeah...lack of discipline today. Was literally just dipping one claw of one paw in the water. Got to learn to sit on my paws.
Thought I might have seen an abandoned baby TA sign Peat lol
Suppose I can console myself its halved in just a few weeks since Macquarie sold out.

Apparently TA gurus have discovered a new sell signal on the charts ...’abandoned pensioner’ .....works well on retirement stocks I’m told (hoops?)

[macduffy]

Not to worry mate, just a really tiny opening position.

Getting smaller by the minute, too!

Disc: I'm there too.

:ohmy:

[winner69]

not to worry mate, just a really tiny opening position.




can never have too many oceania

[King1212]

I could not resist too..bought at 66c..told the wife. She was panicking as she is a nurse...saying the worst place to be now... possible for a while is the rest homes...so..sold it this morning before it collapsed back.

[skid]

No. The shares now have already priced in a drop in the Dow of 750 points or whatever it is the futures are saying. If the dow only drops 400 points then NZ will but up (all other things being equal). If however the Dow would drop by more than 750 points then NZ would be down (all things being equal).

I havent been around for a while....could you explain how that works? knowing they have already priced that in?.....All Im seeing is ads saying for the public to not go near retirement homes...even family for fear of the virus

[fish]

Yeah...lack of discipline today. Was literally just dipping one claw of one paw in the water. Got to learn to sit on my paws.
Thought I might have seen an abandoned baby TA sign Peat lol
Suppose I can console myself its halved in just a few weeks since Macquarie sold out.

I never expected it to drop this much-nor could I sit on my hands too long-so bought a lot today.
It does not look like Jacinda is going to let our elderly die unlike some other countries.
We know know enough about corvid-19 to stamp it out.
So far we have been a very lucky country and have now learned from the mistakes overseas

[Dlownz]

We haven't seen the bottom yet. That goes for every share market listing. This has only just begun. Sad to say.

[King1212]

I never expected it to drop this much-nor could I sit on my hands too long-so bought a lot today.
It does not look like Jacinda is going to let our elderly die unlike some other countries.
We know know enough about corvid-19 to stamp it out.
So far we have been a very lucky country and have now learned from the mistakes overseas

I was thinking the same.... unfortunately....Cindy n government or Lord Jesus can not help these oldies when the out break. So it is fully gambling....red or black.... choose one n u double your money.

My other half worked at rest home before...she said...come winter these oldies tend to catch a cold....one got it n the whole facilities will got it. Not too mention the virus can airborne....

So..very high risk at the moment. Therefore..Cindy gave extra Moni to the oldies to keep them warm hopefully no virus ....

[Baa_Baa]

Sad to say I think you’re right. Sitting on my hands until this settles, possibly a lot lower than today. Weird but opportunities present themselves in mysterious ways.

[King1212]

Well..we don't have to go to SKC now.....plz put on your bet..

Red.... there will be no outbreak in the facilities
Black......there will be an outbreak whether small or big....

Double or lose your Moni.....

Ding ...ding....ding.....last call on bet!

[fish]

I was thinking the same.... unfortunately....Cindy n government or Lord Jesus can not help these oldies when the out break. So it is fully gambling....red or black.... choose one n u double your money.

My other half worked at rest home before...she said...come winter these oldies tend to catch a cold....one got it n the whole facilities will got it. Not too mention the virus can airborne....

So..very high risk at the moment. Therefore..Cindy gave extra Moni to the oldies to keep them warm hopefully no virus ....

Very true.
However unlike colds we are going too isolate and stamp this out.There is a chance that this winter we get less flu and colds about because of the measures taken to prevent corvid-19.
Picking the bottom is not necessary as long as the company keeps paying dividends.You have to put cash somewhere and I know Beagle and myself sold a lot of stocks well before they crashed

[King1212]

The problem is....there are a lot of newbies buying shares or started to invest shares....

Direct broking experienced high volume of applications

IMO..these newbies would make the market panic n irrational. They just started to invest..n able to access their portfolio. When they saw their portfolio down..they panic..

Forget all the fundamentals...that why I believe worst will come....as most will see cheap shares but Bear is still far to sleep..

[Scrunch]

Well..we don't have to go to SKC now.....plz put on your bet..

Red.... there will be no outbreak in the facilities
Black......there will be an outbreak whether small or big....

Double or lose your Moni.....

Ding ...ding....ding.....last call on bet!

For any of the old timers out there does this kinda remind you of some of the early America’s cup races and was it Fey Richwhite shares?

[Yoda]

I never expected it to drop this much-nor could I sit on my hands too long-so bought a lot today.
It does not look like Jacinda is going to let our elderly die unlike some other countries.
We know know enough about corvid-19 to stamp it out.
So far we have been a very lucky country and have now learned from the mistakes overseas

Deleted by me due to unintentional scaremongering, Sorry for upsetting the group .

[ratkin]

I think you guys have gone too early, there is an astounding amount of bad news out there today, and exponential growth of the virus in US etc means in another Two weeks fear factor will be maxed out.

[fish]

when the ventilators are all used up, Cindy cant help.
discisions will / are being made to not do Cpr on Covid patients due to the risk of cross contamination to medical / nursing staff. Gota save the workers .....

Yoda you are behind the times.
No medically trained staff would in their right mind do CPR on a Covid patient in NZ.It sounds as if it was done on Dr L Wenliang(?spelling)-unsuccessful as every case most likely would be .
Ventilation for a severely hypoxic covid-19 pneumonia initiated early can be lifesaving and will happen for younger patients.Far less likely to be successful for old patients-those over 80 say-and most of those would be happy to not be put on ventilators and instead die peacefully.
However NZ approach has changed since last saturday.
We have a good chance of containing this disease.
Countries which have not-eg US and Italy have large numbers of rest home dead.
We can prevent most of these deaths.
For the first time in my 40 years as a GP I have seen a major change in attitudes to respiratory disease-my older patients tell me of the measures taken to Isolate themselves from Grandchildren etc .Resthomes are restricting visitors .Sick staff are told not too come in.
So far we have no knowledge of community spread-it could be happening in isolated pockets that we should be able to quarantine.

I do not believe the value of resthomes has halved in one month.
I do believe dividends will be paid.
I accept any investment is risky but long-term we need resthomes and some people will be safer in resthomes.Our aging population will keep increasing.
I buy for the long-term and accept the sp may fall more-who really knows-I do not care and might buy more if it drops!

[trackers]

I think you guys have gone too early, there is an astounding amount of bad news out there today, and exponential growth of the virus in US etc means in another Two weeks fear factor will be maxed out.

I agree, but I think people miss that there’s two parts to this..: the first is the direct impact from the virus, which will sooner or later be contained, especially here. The second is the impact from the panic: businesses fully shutting down, massive unemployment as a result (I’ve already seen some), dire reduction in our biggest sector (tourism). Those things will cause a (at least) medium term burn on this countries wealth and rest home wise I think the biggest impact is families not being able to afford the extra cost (vs staying in their homes)

[BlackPeter]

when the ventilators are all used up, Cindy cant help.
discisions will / are being made to not do Cpr on Covid patients due to the risk of cross contamination to medical / nursing staff. Gota save the workers .....

Any chance the fear mongers could please go back to their fear mongering threads (anything with Coronavirus in the header) and play with themselves instead of infecting the whole forum? This B/S is neither useful nor sensical.

Elderlies will be much safer in closed communities than if they live outside of retirement communities. No need for them to go shopping, the nurse will visit them instead of them going to the medical center and getting coughed on by a myriad of potentially sick people.

Will the virus find its way into some of the retirement homes? Probably yes - I guess the staff still interacts with the rest of the fear monger infected world. In that case care in the rest homes will be better as well (well, there will be care) than for elderlies living on their own ... and despite all the brain dead fear mongering posts here as well as anywhere else ... the death rate is not that bad.

Diamond Princess: 3700 people (crew and passengers), most of the passengers well beyond the 65; untrained and sick crew spreading the virus to everybody on board, however still - only 696 on board testing positive (of them 410 asymptomatic) and seven people died. This is a infection rate of 19%, patients with symptoms of 8% and a mortality rate of 0.2% ... given the circumstances not worse than a bad flu, and this basically in a worst case rest home environment (guaranteed supply of virus through sick crew and containment).

If you transfer this experience to some normal retirement village with healthy and well trained staff and more space - what exactly do you think will happen? 0.1% dying? Well, this is not even a statistical blib given that in a normal rest home 12% of the residents die every year (base on an in average 8 year occupancy).

Dumb scare mongering at its worst ...

[dobby41]

Elderlies will be much safer in closed communities than if they live outside of retirement communities. No need for them to go shopping, the nurse will visit them instead of them going to the medical center and getting coughed on by a myriad of potentially sick people.

Unfortunately the likes of Oceania consist of more than care.
The villa people still have to shop.
In most cases the nurse looks after the care people not the villa people.
I agree that they will still be better off in a village where they have better protocols for dealing with this.

[skid]

I never expected it to drop this much-nor could I sit on my hands too long-so bought a lot today.
It does not look like Jacinda is going to let our elderly die unlike some other countries.
We know know enough about corvid-19 to stamp it out.
So far we have been a very lucky country and have now learned from the mistakes overseas

You Know.....in some ways Im wondering if a brand new investor....one who hasnt been closely following the share market to form a solid concept of the ''bull run''mentality ,while they look at all the details of each individual share,might not just have the edge on investing....Im guessing you also never expected a virus to come along like this?....are you sure your not looking to closely at the boat...and not seeing the cyclone around it?...Its a nice boat on a sunny day

[Beagle]

Good vigorous debate which is a good thing.
For the sake of clarity I put on a 1% portfolio allocation yesterday. Not one point something percent, just 1.0 percent. I have offsetting shorts in AIR, HGH and TRA that match the size of this position and my position in PAZ. I am net 100% in cash, short term bank deposits and Kiwi bonds.

Yes its probably a bit early but the shares have halved from several weeks ago when Macquarie sold out at $1.20 and they are trading at just on half NAV.
Could they halve again down to 30 cents ? I think that's unlikely but I wouldn't be upset about it as it would present a once in a lifetime opportunity to buy. Most of OCA's revenue's come from Govt funding.

[mp52]

Elderlies will be much safer in closed communities than if they live outside of retirement communities. No need for them to go shopping, the nurse will visit them instead of them going to the medical center and getting coughed on by a myriad of potentially sick people.

Well said. I happen to dealing with an elderly family member's situation at the moment moving from townhouse to apartment. Yesterday, the home had an acceptable offer on the townhouse within hours of our confirming the move.


The villa people still have to shop.
In most cases the nurse looks after the care people not the villa people.


Edit: I am curious however, why Oceania has taken as swift a kick to the b#**s as it has relative to other providers?
The response from the retirement villages has been swift and effective - some (most?) putting gate security on entrance into the homes. It would take a whole new level of stupid for visitors to bluff their way through that just so they can put their family members at risk.

The villages are providing services to unit holders to reduce transmission risk as well. Yes, the industry will likely take a hit from some panic press and added overheads in response to the virus but even short term, villages are as good an option as any currently out there for oldies.

[macduffy]

Well said, mp52. A bit of sanity amongst the panic.

:)

[BlackPeter]

Unfortunately the likes of Oceania consist of more than care.
The villa people still have to shop.
In most cases the nurse looks after the care people not the villa people.
I agree that they will still be better off in a village where they have better protocols for dealing with this.

It will be very easy to organize online shopping or telephone orders for these villages - wouldn't you think so? They can go shopping by themselves, but they certainly don't have to.

[ratkin]

Have just been to a village ( owned by archer) they have upped their signage etc to keep people out, and I was assured they will get tougher once community transmission kicks off

Problem will be the staff themselves though, unless they living in full time they can easily spread it. Then there are the residents that live In the units, they are pretty much free to come and go as they please

[silverblizzard888]

Its fair to say the best place for the elderly is retirement home communities because all precautions are taken and a high standard of hygiene demanded going forward, but as Ratkin has mentioned and I do agreed, the staff or potentially family members may bring the virus in and it only takes one person and that will be the weakest link. It will only be a matter of time before it gets into these retirement home communities, which is a sad and very unfortunate situation to happen.

The Government has also not made the required funding needed for this matter in terms of dealing with it on medical terms and has said they rather allow a slow spread over time rather than delaying it then having a fast and large amount spread in a short time frame. Theres too much hope that retirement homes won't be affected and thats just not very prudent thinking. Prepare yourself according, this will affect retirement homes and stocks and it won't be nice.

[dobby41]

It will be very easy to organize online shopping or telephone orders for these villages - wouldn't you think so? They can go shopping by themselves, but they certainly don't have to.

It would be good if the management of the villages could coordinate that sort of thing - are they?
The small village my Mum is in doesn't so she has to now walk and take a taxi back (the weekly shopping trip is cancelled for now).
Still better than being elsewhere I think.

[justakiwi]

I for one, am struggling right now. Could those of you in this category please take a moment or two, to consider how your constant, ongoing negative comments may be affecting the rest of us? This used to be a place to come and hang out, do our investing thing, socialise a bit and have a laugh or two. Now it is simply a place to avoid.

I am starting to feel more anxious by the day. We get that this real. We get that it is serious. We get that people will die, and it could even be us. But I really don’t need to be focusing on that right now. If a resident in our rest home gets the virus, the chances are high that I will have to put my hand up to be one of the caregivers on the “isolation” team. I have no dependents and I am reasonably healthy so it makes more sense for me to take on this role than someone with children or existing health issues. But I’m almost 60 - so yep, I class as “elderly” in terms of my risk of getting the virus. I am trying not to think about that but it is scary. I don’t need a constant reminder that “we are all going to die!”

There is nothing to be gained by any of these ongoing “discussions” here. Nothing. Rehashing it, laying blame, predicting disastrous outcomes serves no useful purpose. In fact it does the opposite. It creates stress and anxiety, not only in those of us watching it, but in those of you who seem unable to just shut up about it. So, I agree with BP - can you all just give it a rest please? Set up your own private group here if you want, and continue driving yourselves crazy away from the general forums.

Please.


Any chance the fear mongers could please go back to their fear mongering threads (anything with Coronavirus in the header) and play with themselves instead of infecting the whole forum? This B/S is neither useful or sensical

[Beagle]

People are always going to debate the pro's and con's of investing in a stock and do their SWOT analysis (strength's, weakness's, opportunities and threats). That's really what the forum is all about.

Use the Ignore Button

If someone is really getting on your nerves, or more than one, click "settings" at the very top right of the page, then look half way down on the left of the page for "Edit Ignore list" and add whoever is really getting under your skin to your ignore list. After that, you won't be able to see that they have posted.

Be realistic in your expectations

Asking everyone to stop posting their views whether its good, bad or ugly isn't going to change anything but your own choices about selective use of the ignore button might make your experience on here more enjoyable.

Please accept this post in the spirit of goodwill in which it is intended.

[BlackPeter]

People are always going to debate the pro's and con's of investing in a stock and do their SWOT analysis (strength's, weakness's, opportunities and threats). That's really what the forum is all about.

Use the Ignore Button

If someone is really getting on your nerves, or more than one, click "settings" at the very top right of the page, then look half way down on the left of the page for "Edit Ignore list" and add whoever is really getting under your skin to your ignore list. After that, you won't be able to see that they have posted.

Be realistic in your expectations

Asking everyone to stop posting their views whether its good, bad or ugly isn't going to change anything but your own choices about selective use of the ignore button might make your experience on here more enjoyable.

Please accept this post in the spirit of goodwill in which it is intended.

I see your point. The posters here come from all walks of life, and this includes unfortunately as well people who either panic and learned no other way to deal with their own fears than inducing them into others ... and it includes as well people who just enjoy to make others squirm. We do have a bully culture after all.

Still - I don't think the odd post to remind this crowd what damage they can do with their posts can hurt.

I hope that at least some of them are able to reflect, learn and to improve their behavior. Personally I think that justakiwi's post was appropriate, timely and brave.

And hey - isn't it amazing that some people care for and help others (including sick and old people) while others just want to scare their fellow humans? Humans are so diverse ... and we see more and more the best as well as the worst of mankind, even in these forums.

[justakiwi]

I have no problem with the discussion of coronavirus in relation to investing. It is all the other stuff I have an issue with.

But hey, I’m not even supposed to be here. I stupidly allowed myself to get dragged back in, even though I had promised myself I was going to lurk only. So, for self protective reasons I will take my need for social interaction elsewhere, and will continue my investment learning journey via IM and email with the few “good guys and gals” I have come to respect and trust here.

Fingers crossed we all survive this. In more ways than one.




People are always going to debate the pro's and con's of investing in a stock and do their SWOT analysis (strength's, weakness's, opportunities and threats). That's really what the forum is all about.

Use the Ignore Button

If someone is really getting on your nerves, or more than one, click "settings" at the very top right of the page, then look half way down on the left of the page for "Edit Ignore list" and add whoever is really getting under your skin to your ignore list. After that, you won't be able to see that they have posted.

Be realistic in your expectations

Asking everyone to stop posting their views whether its good, bad or ugly isn't going to change anything but your own choices about selective use of the ignore button might make your experience on here more enjoyable.

Please accept this post in the spirit of goodwill in which it is intended.

[Beagle]

Fair enough. My view is a robust exchange of viewpoints is what makes this a vigorous and interesting place and its easy enough to put anyone who, in one's own opinion is purely trolling, on ignore.

[peat]

rest home wise I think the biggest impact is families not being able to afford the extra cost (vs staying in their homes)

But its usually cheaper for retireds to sell their house and go to a village. Is that what you mean?

[Blue Skies]

I for one, am struggling right now. Could those of you in this category please take a moment or two, to consider how your constant, ongoing negative comments may be affecting the rest of us? This used to be a place to come and hang out, do our investing thing, socialise a bit and have a laugh or two. Now it is simply a place to avoid.

I am starting to feel more anxious by the day. We get that this real. We get that it is serious. We get that people will die, and it could even be us. But I really don’t need to be focusing on that right now. If a resident in our rest home gets the virus, the chances are high that I will have to put my hand up to be one of the caregivers on the “isolation” team. I have no dependents and I am reasonably healthy so it makes more sense for me to take on this role than someone with children or existing health issues. But I’m almost 60 - so yep, I class as “elderly” in terms of my risk of getting the virus. I am trying not to think about that but it is scary. I don’t need a constant reminder that “we are all going to die!”

There is nothing to be gained by any of these ongoing “discussions” here. Nothing. Rehashing it, laying blame, predicting disastrous outcomes serves no useful purpose. In fact it does the opposite. It creates stress and anxiety, not only in those of us watching it, but in those of you who seem unable to just shut up about it. So, I agree with BP - can you all just give it a rest please? Set up your own private group here if you want, and continue driving yourselves crazy away from the general forums.

Please.


Fair enough. Everyone already knows it's a heightened risk group & some of this not helpful.
It's one thing to debate if a businesses SP is undervalued or overvalued & the reasons why, but a bit insensitive & extreme ( am sure completely unintentionally ) imho to constantly speculate that 'death is coming to your place of work & the people you care for' no matter what you do,( with a few posters outdoing each other overcoming objections as to why that may not necessarily happen) all the while discussing if therefore it presents a good buying opportunity.

So well done Justakiwi, am sure you don't need me to tell you but you're doing really important work & making a real difference to peoples lives & we appreciate your posts. :)

[Entrep]

Got some at 56c. At this price I am not going to try and bottom pick

[fish]

Got some at 56c. At this price I am not going to try and bottom pick
I am doing the same but my order is yet to be filled.

[Entrep]

54c now... and I thought I had done well! Certainly getting the most smashed out of the retirement sector shares, and even after the announcement yesterday which I thought was good.

[bull....]

More economists warn tough times in housing market to come
https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/120414372/more-economists-warn-tough-times-in-housing-market-to-come

the party over they wont make there margin forecasts

[King1212]

Spoke to my mate today.. everything in plan.... business as usual.....not even a fly can get in without getting cought...hahha.

So.... great opportunity.....I might risk it.....stuff it...so tempted......$.55 c......will regret it my lifetime.


PS...will not tell my wife..

[tipsy]

Might wait and see if we hit the naughty forties.

[bull....]

Might wait and see if we hit the naughty forties.

might be safe plan if property market falls. did you know in the 1987 crash property developers were the hardest hit

[Blue Skies]

More economists warn tough times in housing market to come


https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/120414372/more-economists-warn-tough-times-in-housing-market-to-come

the party over they wont make there margin forecasts


Maybe not, but although sector getting smashed at moment, unlike many other companies, all the big established operators seem a safe medium/long term hold as govt would support them if it became necessary as they provide such a vital role housing & caring for so many elderly & reducing the strain on our hospital & health care system.

Lots of other companies I can think of don't have the luxury of that safety net.
Of course just speculation on my part but that's how it looks to me.

[Meister]

Surprised to see anybody selling at these prices, if you got stuck with the stock on its fall this far down, you might as well just hold on to it now I reckon.

Buying at at 54 seems to have a lot more long term upside potential than down. I am in.

[King1212]

News just out....no cases reported from Wuhan anymore....we might see the market starting to stabilize soon..

[bull....]

Maybe not, but although sector getting smashed at moment, unlike many other companies, all the big established operators seem a safe medium/long term hold as govt would support them if it became necessary as they provide such a vital role housing & caring for so many elderly & reducing the strain on our hospital & health care system.

Lots of other companies I can think of don't have the luxury of that safety net.
Of course just speculation on my part but that's how it looks to me.

i dont disagree about there survival , but since they make most of there profits from property development margins if these disappear they probably wont have any money to pay dividends. they dont make enough money from care alone to support dividends

[dobby41]

News just out....no cases reported from Wuhan anymore....we might see the market starting to stabilize soon..

Not while the US is about to be whalloped.
Not to mention the rest of Europe.

[trackers]

Surprised to see anybody selling at these prices, if you got stuck with the stock on its fall this far down, you might as well just hold on to it now I reckon.

Buying at at 54 seems to have a lot more long term upside potential than down. I am in.

Don't forget that for some companies, if they're held by kiwisaver funds, those funds will be selling to re-balance their portfolios as everyone dips into conservative/cash funds

[ratkin]

Looked this morning as if .60 cents may have held, was actually thinking maybe it was looking a good entry point, perhaps .50 will hold the line

In relation to Justakiwi I am probably one of the guilty ones, but it is pretty much impossible to consider any stock without looking at how corona will play out.

Talked to a woman today whose husband has mental health issues, she said he was really struggling this week with all the negativity, so they agreed no more facebook or news watching for a few days.

[Bjauck]

Don't forget that for some companies, if they're held by kiwisaver funds, those funds will be selling to re-balance their portfolios as everyone dips into conservative/cash funds Good point. I think about 10% of KiwiSaver funds are held in NZ shares.

[BlackPeter]

Don't forget that for some companies, if they're held by kiwisaver funds, those funds will be selling to re-balance their portfolios as everyone dips into conservative/cash funds

Good point, though sad. I guess it would have made heaps of sense for people to go 4 weeks ago into conservative funds. But now? The only thing they would achieve is to take themselves after the crash the opportunity to recover. Lose - lose.

On the other hand, while not pretending I foresaw it all - I am with my Kiwisaver 50:50 (bonds to shares) and intend to go soon 100% shares. Maybe this helps to compensate for the poor souls who are currently leaving their growth funds.

[dabsman]

Just got some at 55c. Sold out most at $1.06 and $1.02 so I bought back a bunch more and still under what I took out. These 2 for 1 sales are great

[peat]

Looked this morning as if .60 cents may have held, was actually thinking maybe it was looking a good entry point, perhaps .50 will hold the line

In relation to Justakiwi I am probably one of the guilty ones, but it is pretty much impossible to consider any stock without looking at how corona will play out.

Talked to a woman today whose husband has mental health issues, she said he was really struggling this week with all the negativity, so they agreed no more facebook or news watching for a few days.

yes thorough self -isolation - watch specific movies (not TV), or read a book, or listen to some music (not the radio).

It is weird how isolation doesn't mean what it used to.

I said to Maverick the other day that there will be a fair amount of delayed selling through the ETF and fund mechanisms where they will need to liquidate at any cost because of redemption by the capitulating.

[King1212]

Border closed....so great news!!!! Safer for the oldies...less human to worry....

Might see this bouncing hard tomorrow!

Hold yourself Beagle!

[Ggcc]

Border closed....so great news!!!! Safer for the oldies...less human to worry....

Might see this bouncing hard tomorrow!

Hold yourself Beagle!
I had a birdie tell me that Oceania might be in lock down so double increase

[couta1]

I had a birdie tell me that Oceania might be in lock down so double increase Nope, but only essential visits allowed.

[Ggcc]

Nope, but only essential visits allowed.
And contractors have been turned away

[couta1]

And contractors have been turned away If the washing machines or dishwashers break down, the contractors are allowed because its essential.

[Ggcc]

If the washing machines or dishwashers break down, the contractors are allowed because its essential.
Well that’s good news they are taking it al serious. You are on the front line so you would know more than me

[Beagle]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/347503/315683.pdf

Might be worth having another look through the half year results presentation, wherein I note a NAV of $1.15.
Current share price of 55 cents represents less than half the NAV. Hmm, Armageddon already fully priced in ?...is it possible we might not get Armageddon ?

[youngatheart]

Wow, it looks like 60c on opening meaning that that 55c x 500k sell at 4.59pm last night may have provided an instant 10% boost to those fortunate enough to have got them.

That last 5 minutes at the end of the day is insane...

[blackcap]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/347503/315683.pdf

Might be worth having another look through the half year results presentation, wherein I note a NAV of $1.15.
Current share price of 55 cents represents less than half the NAV. Hmm, Armageddon already fully priced in ?...is it possible we might not get Armageddon ?

Hi Beagle,

Is the NAV realisable though? I had a look at the balance sheet and am not as confident as you are. I did have a nibble at this stock the other day but it could still fall a bit further.

[Beagle]

Hi Beagle,

Is the NAV realisable though? I had a look at the balance sheet and am not as confident as you are. I did have a nibble at this stock the other day but it could still fall a bit further.

As long as its a going concern, (which it will be with most of their business model paid with Govt funding) I feel NAV is a fairer assessment of the intrinsic value of the company.
Half NAV is very close to Armageddon pricing in my opinion. Maybe there's some chance of an outcome that's not Armageddon ?
Then again if we do get widespread community spread and its gets into OCA's villages, I grant you the share price could get really ugly...but that would be the time I would put a decent position on so that doesn't worry me, (not that I am wishing this on any of our old folks). My 1% portfolio allocation at present is not what I would call confident. Plenty of water to flow under the bridge yet is how I see this one.

[Food4Thought]

As long as its a going concern, (which it will be with most of their business model paid with Govt funding) I feel NAV is a fairer assessment of the intrinsic value of the company.
Half NAV is very close to Armageddon pricing in my opinion. Maybe there's some chance of an outcome that's not Armageddon ?
Then again if we do get widespread community spread and its gets into OCA's villages, I grant you the share price could get really ugly...but that would be the time I would put a decent position on so that doesn't worry me, (not that I am wishing this on any of our old folks). My 1% portfolio allocation at present is not what I would call confident. Plenty of water to flow under the bridge yet is how I see this one.

I see it coming down further in the near future. These small up trends are easily chewed up when the community spread kicks in. I don't believe it's at all near the bottom.

SUM was $3ish end 2013 (edited, had quoted 2011) Took many years to double in shareprice. Now it's also heading that way again. Doesn't have a huge return.

All the best. I hope it's less of a drop than what I believe will happen. My gauge is around the 35-40c mark.

What a show. Goodluck out there people, beings and of course, animals 👌

[Beagle]

Okay so its it's that bad and say OCA is only worth 50 cents, less than half NTA and well under half NAV and most of their operation is underwritten by Govt funding then in relative terms my assessment of fair value would be
SUM - half NTA - they have stopped growing fast other than for their debt, unsold units and bare land = $2.50
MET - As above - half NTA $3.50
RYM - Cannot be worth more than NTA in an Armageddon scenario so lets say 10% discount to book as they are the gold standard = $4
ARV - 40% discount to book as unlike SUM and MET they are actually growing = 75 cents

All these stocks have ostensibly the same risks but only one has the security of Govt funding for the vast majority of its business model. 35-40 cents would make no sense and would be "quite the opportunity" so bring it on !! Disc: Just 1% portfolio allocation at this stage.

[allfromacell]

Okay so its it's that bad and say OCA is only worth 50 cents, less than half NTA and well under half NAV and most of their operation is underwritten by Govt funding then in relative terms my assessment of fair value would be
SUM - half NTA - they have stopped growing fast other than for their debt, unsold units and bare land = $2.50
MET - As above - half NTA $3.50
RYM - Cannot be worth more than NTA in an Armageddon scenario so lets say 10% discount to book as they are the gold standard = $4
ARV - 40% discount to book as unlike SUM and MET they are actually growing = 75 cents

All these stocks have ostensibly the same risks but only one has the security of Govt funding for the vast majority of its business model. 35-40 cents would make no sense and would be "quite the opportunity" so bring it on !! Disc: Just 1% portfolio allocation at this stage.

Go on beagle, make it 2% ;)

[Beagle]

Go on beagle, make it 2% ;)

LOL 1% is hardly a high conviction position is it ! Lets see where the dust settles frist.

[King1212]

This is way oversold? Spoke to the staff that work on the rest home....even flies need to sign in n pass through someone to get in the rest home.....

The safest place to be now...

[bull....]

This is way oversold? Spoke to the staff that work on the rest home....even flies need to sign in n pass through someone to get in the rest home.....

The safest place to be now...

your joking right?

[Grimy]

I was happy to take a few more today at .53. Ready to buy more if it continues down.

[Meister]

your joking right?

Yeah, turns out they are not ACTUALLY getting flies to sign in :laugh:

[skid]

This is way oversold? Spoke to the staff that work on the rest home....even flies need to sign in n pass through someone to get in the rest home.....

The safest place to be now...

I dunno.....flies can be tricky.......................but on a more serious note.... signing in doesnt stop a virus if you unknowingly have it....God forbid

[Beagle]

Hard one to figure why the market thinks its only worth 51 cents ? Any thoughts anyone ?, good bad and ugly will all be considered.

[Beagle]

Didn't RYM continue to increase underlying profit throughout the GFC?
Alot of revenue for OCA comes from government providing some level of security (vs say SUM which is very reliant on their property side of things)

This as $1.23 1 month ago... now looks to be going sub 70 cents (and I didn't really think $1.23 was 'excessive' or 'wildly overvalued')... it would seem almost too good to be true (even at sub 80 cents)... OCA never rose as high as ARV, SUM, or RYM... and now it has crashed even harder... what am I missing?

^^^ Posted Monday 16th, now just 51 cents. I know I answered your question another way earlier this week but at 51 cents this really is starting to look like irrational fear and nothing else.

[couta1]

Hard one to figure why the market thinks its only worth 51 cents ? Any thoughts anyone ?, good bad and ugly will all be considered. The market doesnt currently think, it reacts like a rabid dog, probably should be put down or at least tranquilized.

[trader_jackson]

^^^ Posted Monday 16th, now just 51 cents. I know I answered your question another way earlier this week but at 51 cents this really is starting to look like irrational fear and nothing else.

Yup, and OCA have since come out confirming things really are quite okay... doesn't seem to have helped.
ARV stabilized somewhat (in fact it was lower on Tuesday at $1.05, OCA was still in the 60's then)

[Dlownz]

Well asking for thoughts.. could it be a reaction from kiwisaver funds having to sell as people panic and change to more Conservative funds. So they are forced to sell to free up capital which get put into cash funds etc.

[Dlownz]

And I'm very tempted to get back in. But still feel there's going to be bigger badder news next week which will cause yet another big dip. OCAs being punished but Sum, rym has all lost close to 50% in one month.

[Baa_Baa]

^^^ Posted Monday 16th, now just 51 cents. I know I answered your question another way earlier this week but at 51 cents this really is starting to look like irrational fear and nothing else.

Use your TA, it could easily go a lot lower, or not. TA reads sentiment, right now, which is oozing fear. Fear wants its money back, or whatever is left of it. Fear doesn't count losses until it is free from further loss exposure. Fear doesn't think about buying at all time lows. Fear doesn't think about buying at all! Fear though is what we should all wait for, patiently, after years of FOMO chasing prices higher. Fear sets us up for a lifelong romance with our favourite companies. Embrace the fear, do not succumb to it.

Give your wife your online trading password and ask her to change it and not tell you what it is. Tell her what your TA entry conditions are (maybe a little bit more sophisticated than just an MA cross) and that when you come back to her begging for a food bowl with some other conflicted story about how underpriced it is (FA), to ignore you! You love her enough that you won't resort to domestic violence and she will save from you making a horrible mistake. When the TA strategy is perfectly set up, she will tell you the password (then you should change it again ;)

One could still lose 50% or more on the retirement companies by buying in now, imho, especially if there's a disease calamity (heaven forbid) amongst many other short/medium term risks as this event unfolds. Or not. Have a TA entry indicator and a trigger strategy sorted out, then give the keys to the trade to your wife if you don't or can't trust yourself to be resolutely vigilant.

;) This is only half tongue in cheek. Were all susceptible to impulse, especially when our expertise is screaming "this is so oversold the market is mad I need to buy buy buy". Um, no.

Never waste a great recession!

[Beagle]

Use your TA, it could easily go a lot lower, or not. TA reads sentiment, right now, which is oozing fear. Fear wants its money back, or whatever is left of it. Fear doesn't count losses until it is free from further loss exposure. Fear doesn't think about buying at all time lows. Fear doesn't think about buying at all! Fear though is what we should all wait for, patiently, after years of FOMO chasing prices higher. Fear sets us up for a lifelong romance with our favourite companies. Embrace the fear, do not succumb to it.

Give your wife your online trading password and ask her to change it and not tell you what it is. Tell her what your TA entry conditions are (maybe a little bit more sophisticated than just an MA cross) and that when you come back to her begging for a food bowl with some other conflicted story about how underpriced it is (FA), to ignore you! You love her enough that you won't resort to domestic violence and she will save from you making a horrible mistake. When the TA strategy is perfectly set up, she will tell you the password (then you should change it again ;)

One could still lose 50% or more on the retirement companies by buying in now, imho, especially if there's a disease calamity (heaven forbid) amongst many other short/medium term risks as this event unfolds. Or not. Have a TA entry indicator and a trigger strategy sorted out, then give the keys to the trade to your wife if you don't or can't trust yourself to be resolutely vigilant.

;) This is only half tongue in cheek. Were all susceptible to impulse, especially when our expertise is screaming "this is so oversold the market is mad I need to buy buy buy". Um, no.

Never waste a great recession!

That's got to be the post of the week. Well said !!

[ratkin]

Ask yourselves a different question. Instead of asking why it is so low, ask yourself
What will make it go up?

[Beagle]

And I'm very tempted to get back in. But still feel there's going to be bigger badder news next week which will cause yet another big dip. OCAs being punished but Sum, rym has all lost close to 50% in one month.

Must admit the share price falls in this sector have all been breathtaking. Sold out of SUM at ~ $9 less than a month ago and now just $4.33 and was only $3.97 at one point today.
Falls over the last month
OCA $1.23 down to 51 cents = lost 59%
SUM $9.20 down to $4.33 = lost 53%
RYM $17.00 down to $8.40 = lost 51%
ARV $1.89 down to $1.08 = lost 43%
MET - On the above basis I expect MET to fall to ~ $3.50 if the takeover offer is withdrawn for any reason. Trading at just $5.12, the market must think the chances of this deal proceeding are less than 50%.

Conclusion - The whole sector is under extreme pressure.

[peat]

Ask yourselves a different question. Instead of asking why it is so low, ask yourself
What will make it go up?

when more people choose to buy shares than those choosing to sell them.
As Baa Baa describes I think there are a lot of people choosing to get out at any cost and this creates an oversupply at the precise time that few people are prepared to buy. Think back to when a share would go UP 3% on a no news day. That was demand and not much supply. Now we are in the exact opposite of that. And a lot of shares were dumped on the market recently. There is no doubt a glut of Oceania shares out there in weak hands. Eventually they'll find a better home and the price should stabilize and might even revert to mean. If you have a medium term time frame >3 years think how things might normalise again.

[Baa_Baa]

Must admit the share price falls in this sector have all been breathtaking. Sold out of SUM at ~ $9 less than a month ago and now just $4.33 and was only $3.97 at one point today.
Falls over the last month
OCA $1.23 down to 51 cents = lost 59%
SUM $9.20 down to $4.33 = lost 53%
RYM $17.00 down to $8.40 = lost 51%
ARV $1.89 down to $1.08 = lost 43%
MET - On the above basis I expect MET to fall to ~ $3.50 if the takeover offer is withdrawn for any reason. Trading at just $5.12, the market must think the chances of this deal proceeding are less than 50%.

Conclusion - The whole sector is under extreme pressure.

The beginning of a setup for a lifetime of successful investing. Don't waste a decent recession.

[clip]

It's a frustrating time to be in - on the one hand I am lucky I was able to utilize kiwisaver to buy our first home september last year, just in time. On the other hand, I have no money to capitalize on this situation 😅😥

[troyvdh]

Dear baa...do you mean depression

[Maverick]

when more people choose to buy shares than those choosing to sell them.
As Baa Baa describes I think there are a lot of people choosing to get out at any cost and this creates an oversupply at the precise time that few people are prepared to buy. Think back to when a share would go UP 3% on a no news day. That was demand and not much supply. Now we are in the exact opposite of that. And a lot of shares were dumped on the market recently. There is no doubt a glut of Oceania shares out there in weak hands. Eventually they'll find a better home and the price should stabilize and might even revert to mean. If you have a medium term time frame >3 years think how things might normalise again.

I totally concur with you Pete, you are sadly correct.
Watching for any sign of the SP finding a new bottom is then disappointed with another deluge of predictable heavy selling driving the SP to a new low. Even the reluctant Beagle has a claw dipped back in because the value is so undeniable... I am jealous to watch this as my cupboard is now bare.

There is just nobody left with enough dry powder to offset the untempered hands holding the latest spread of approx 300 million recently unloaded MAQ shares.

I am hoping that the NZ govt will put on a total NZSX freeze as it suitable in this very real crisis, (bring back Rob Mouldoon)
It also seems a total no brainer for Earle to announce an immediate buy back program, that at least should halt the SP bleeding.....after all, why bother building a new complex when you can buy one back off yourself for half price.(complete with plenty of embedded value washing through and truckloads of govt funded customers).

[Scrunch]

Hard one to figure why the market thinks its only worth 51 cents ? Any thoughts anyone ?, good bad and ugly will all be considered.

I'm not sure if I've fully got my head around retirement stock acocnting but the fair value movement of investment property is often close to the net surplus. If the market is now guessing these FV movements are neutral or negative then Mr Market could be pricing OCA as a loss-making stock that will struggle to make a profit until property prices are going up. How many months or years away is this?

If you take this view, its pretty easy to justify a big discount to NTA. The gold standard on this reverse metric is your friend MET. Back in 2010 they had NTA of $4.13 with a share price of $2.00 so the market has previously gone below 50% of NTA for a retirement stock.

[allfromacell]

If you go have a walk around your local supermarket and see the madness, that same energy is what's going on with some solid stocks on the NZX. Sure you could wait for your precious TA to trigger or you could get it well the going good and not miss the snap 20% bounce.

[ratkin]

If you go have a walk around your local supermarket and see the madness, that same energy is what's going on with some solid stocks on the NZX. Sure you could wait for your precious TA to trigger or you could get it well the going good and not miss the snap 20% bounce.

Personally am just waiting for a higher high, that applies to most stocks on my list. So far though it is all downs. Not even a high to set as a target yet

[Raz]

If you go have a walk around your local supermarket and see the madness, that same energy is what's going on with some solid stocks on the NZX. Sure you could wait for your precious TA to trigger or you could get it well the going good and not miss the snap 20% bounce.

You say the going is good, do you mean to say catch a fallen knife, worst case...what is 20% on these numbers already, plenty of time and more bad news to come so why rush...many on the sidelines, it is more relaxed over here.

[couta1]

I totally concur with you Pete, you are sadly correct.
Watching for any sign of the SP finding a new bottom is then disappointed with another deluge of predictable heavy selling driving the SP to a new low. Even the reluctant Beagle has a claw dipped back in because the value is so undeniable... I am jealous to watch this as my cupboard is now bare.

There is just nobody left with enough dry powder to offset the untempered hands holding the latest spread of approx 300 million recently unloaded MAQ shares.

I am hoping that the NZ govt will put on a total NZSX freeze as it suitable in this very real crisis, (bring back Rob Mouldoon)
It also seems a total no brainer for Earle to announce an immediate buy back program, that at least should halt the SP bleeding.....after all, why bother building a new complex when you can buy one back off yourself for half price.(complete with plenty of embedded value washing through and truckloads of govt funded customers). Tough times for large holders like yourself Mav, I'm guessing your red arrow is somewhere around the size of my HLG one(Huge) yet like myself you are a long term holder with a long term view and outlook and a couple of years from now this current situation will just be another zigzag on the wall of worry chart.

[fish]

Tough times for large holders like yourself Mav, I'm guessing your red arrow is somewhere around the size of my HLG one(Huge) yet like myself you are a long term holder with a long term view and outlook and a couple of years from now this current situation will just be another zigzag on the wall of worry chart.

Bought more yesterday so my holding is back to the size it was 2 months ago.
I simply do not believe one can pick the high and lows but try and estimate the risk.
With such good dividends the risk of being in a worse position in 12 months time is no greater than the chance of a better position.
In my estimation a worse position is 10 cents less( accounting for 2 dividends ) but a better position is more likely to be 20 to 50 cents better.

[couta1]

Bought more yesterday so my holding is back to the size it was 2 months ago.
I simply do not believe one can pick the high and lows but try and estimate the risk.
With such good dividends the risk of being in a worse position in 12 months time is no greater than the chance of a better position.
In my estimation a worse position is 10 cents less( accounting for 2 dividends ) but a better position is more likely to be 20 to 50 cents better. Well said fish and unless your trading time in the market is more important than timing the market.

[Blue Skies]

Bought more yesterday so my holding is back to the size it was 2 months ago.
I simply do not believe one can pick the high and lows but try and estimate the risk.
With such good dividends the risk of being in a worse position in 12 months time is no greater than the chance of a better position.
In my estimation a worse position is 10 cents less( accounting for 2 dividends ) but a better position is more likely to be 20 to 50 cents better.


Yep, never regret being a little too early, but always regret being a little too late.