OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[macduffy]

More likely:
1. No
2.No
3. Nowhere.

Disc: Still holding.

[Baa_Baa]

$1.04

Is this a little break-out with some volume behind it? :eek2:

Has everybody finally stopped worrying about the 'over-hang'? :p

and where will it go from here? :confused:

1. Look at the course of trades. No, the volume was 1.03

2. No, I haven’t worried about it, even tried to show that others need not be worried either, but it still keeps coming up, so I guess it concerns some people

3. To the moon, one day. 😂

[Maverick]

Might be the last chance to get some at $1.03-$1.04.
The wall of relentless selling which has dogged the SP over the last 3 months is now evaporating quickly.
The rest of the sector as enjoyed some nice rises of late. OCA has got some easy catching up to do now the selling has ceased (wonder how long before they return and what the new level might be ).
i know it sounds like ramping but I am finally excited that the wilderness days for OCA just MIGHT be over.

[RTM]

Might be the last chance to get some at $1.03-$1.04.
The wall of relentless selling which has dogged the SP over the last 3 months is now evaporating quickly.
The rest of the sector as enjoyed some nice rises of late. OCA has got some easy catching up to do now the selling has ceased (wonder how long before they return and what the new level might be ).
i know it sounds like ramping but I am finally excited that the wilderness days for OCA just MIGHT be over.

Really hope so Maverick. I topped up at 102, happy with the dividend, but it’s also nice to have some SP growth to confirm everyone thinks it is on track.

[penn]

Might be the last chance to get some at $1.03-$1.04.
The wall of relentless selling which has dogged the SP over the last 3 months is now evaporating quickly.
The rest of the sector as enjoyed some nice rises of late. OCA has got some easy catching up to do now the selling has ceased (wonder how long before they return and what the new level might be ).
i know it sounds like ramping but I am finally excited that the wilderness days for OCA just MIGHT be over.
I know I can't read too much into the buy/sell that I can see but at 54 buyers to 19 sellers (and I am one of those sellers) It does look ready for a bit of a run up. No ramping intended.

[Beagle]

Must admit that I have been feeling sorry for OCA shareholders lately. As I have posted before, its about 3 years before their service offer is 50-50 new model / old model and in the meantime a really key question is can Earl and his team control their operational costs effectively ? On the evidence I have seen to date and the odd whisper I hear from within the company, there is considerable doubt and I remain of the view we will see pressure on profitability mainly due to human resource cost expansion. I expect continued sector underperformance. That said, it does appear to have built a decent base at around $1.02 so those that take a really dogged approach to holding should do okay.

The overhang remains and I remain of the view that this is also a very key consideration going forward.

[RTM]

Must admit that I have been feeling sorry for OCA shareholders lately. As I have posted before, its about 3 years before their service offer is 50-50 new model / old model and in the meantime a really key question is can Earl and his team control their operational costs effectively ? On the evidence I have seen to date and the odd whisper I hear from within the company, there is considerable doubt and I remain of the view we will see pressure on profitability mainly due to human resource cost expansion. I expect continued sector underperformance. That said, it does appear to have built a decent base at around $1.02 so those that take a really dogged approach to holding should do okay.

The overhang remains and I remain of the view that this is also a very key consideration going forward.

I can be really dogged when the dividend is OK. If I sell....just have to figure what other overpriced equity to move the money to.
Bought my MMH in 2015....little real movement for quite some time.

[Beagle]

I can be really dogged when the dividend is OK. If I sell....just have to figure what other overpriced equity to move the money to.
Bought my MMH in 2015....little real movement for quite some time.

Best yield for the sector of 4.6% helps with the dogged determination for sure, especially in this ultra low interest rate environment. Best wishes to shareholders.

[tim23]

Best yield for the sector of 4.6% helps with the dogged determination for sure, especially in this ultra low interest rate environment. Best wishes to shareholders.
Gross dividend though = no imputaion

[Kelvin]

In case anyone is interested, Earl gave a presentation about OCA for the ASX https://youtu.be/g7MUWwddWDg

[percy]

In case anyone is interested, Earl gave a presentation about OCA for the ASX https://youtu.be/g7MUWwddWDg

Thanks for the link.

[RTM]

Gross dividend though = no imputaion

I can easily live with that Tim.
Additionally, long term I think my capital is safe and will grow.

[tim23]

I can easily live with that Tim.
Additionally, long term I think my capital is safe and will grow.

I don't disagree am holder and participating in DRP

[Maverick]

In case anyone is interested, Earl gave a presentation about OCA for the ASX https://youtu.be/g7MUWwddWDg
Awesome link Kelvin. Thanks for posting it. I have visited most of those sites , sometimes twice , the most recent was a walk through Green gables (Nelson) construction site last week. With a guide and all the PPE -just for the record.
After seeing a few you can clearly see the pattern OCA is all about which is what Earl clearly articulates.
Make no mistake that OCA are not offering a social service to house ALL our seniors. They are precisely targeting the local high end guys, offering an expensive product at sites centered in the premium areas.

Greengables for example have competing ARV and SUM building the usual one story villas over the hill in Stoke, nothing wrong with that formula either , but OCA is a 3 story build(= views + density efficiency)200 m from the Nelson CBD/ city gardens. Now that's a serious point of difference.$$$.

I might normally have lost a bit of confidence in this company with its current low / frozen share price but knowing the sites, seeing OCAs execution and vision I'm very confident they have a winning formula. It will take time , perhaps more time than most"traders" seem prepared to give it, but as an "investor" they are well underway with their ducks all in a row.
If anyone is out for a Sunday drive up there, because I'm sure Aucklanders just love going back onto the motorways in their weekends, recommend seeing Sands, Meadow bank and Awatere, (Hamilton- A more regular sized rebuild). You will get a clear feel for what they are about. You can even order a meal/ coffee etc from their community centres . I always felt welcome.
While I personally got in a little too early, shareprice wise, I would rather have risked that than missing the boat for the sake of a few cents.

[BlackPeter]

In case anyone is interested, Earl gave a presentation about OCA for the ASX https://youtu.be/g7MUWwddWDg

cheers - interesting overview working out the differences to the to the other operators in the industry.

[winner69]

Suppose the seaside resort Oceania has near Auckland would have paid for itself by 2050

This in Nature says that we've been underestimating the effects of climate-change-related flooding, and that major cities across the globe will be inundated and essentially unlivable by 2050.


https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-12808-z

[couta1]

Suppose the seaside resort Oceania has near Auckland would have paid for itself by 2050

This in Nature says that we've been underestimating the effects of climate-change-related flooding, and that major cities across the globe will be inundated and essentially unlivable by 2050.


https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-12808-z Dont tell me you've been brainwashed by the extinction crew winner.

[BlackPeter]

Suppose the seaside resort Oceania has near Auckland would have paid for itself by 2050

This in Nature says that we've been underestimating the effects of climate-change-related flooding, and that major cities across the globe will be inundated and essentially unlivable by 2050.


https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-12808-z

Are you sure OCA's resort is less than 2 m above sea level?

[dobby41]

Are you sure OCA's resort is less than 2 m above sea level?

Coastal erosion would have an affect even if 2m above.
If you want a coastal front property some time in the future buy a cheaper one 1 street back now.

[BlackPeter]

Coastal erosion would have an affect even if 2m above.
If you want a coastal front property some time in the future buy a cheaper one 1 street back now.

Obviously - in some places the coast will erode - and in other places you will find it is even gaining additional land. Even these endangered Pacific Islands seem to grow (https://www.bbc.com/news/10222679 or https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-19/fact-check-is-the-island-nation-tuvalu-growing/10627318).

I guess we will need to wait and see whether the sea comes closer to this specific property, or whether it moves away. Will depend on the local rips ...

[penn]

Coastal erosion would have an affect even if 2m above.
If you want a coastal front property some time in the future buy a cheaper one 1 street back now.
Many of the OCA properties are "one street back" These guys have pulled off a major coup, and OCA hold no 'land bank' in the Pearl river delta, Bangladesh, Bangkok, or Jakarta!

[Maverick]

OCA presenting at the UBS conference this week , I'm not expecting any new information but you never know. Plus I'm also not expecting the attendees to rush out and start buying either, at least not this week.

I am rather pleased to see some SP movement the last few weeks, maybe a new theorem to add to the famous Couta ratio...
"every 10 % the whole sector goes up , OCA goes up 1 %."

[value_investor]

OCA presenting at the UBS conference this week , I'm not expecting any new information but you never know. Plus I'm also not expecting the attendees to rush out and start buying either, at least not this week.

I am rather pleased to see some SP movement the last few weeks, maybe a new theorem to add to the famous Couta ratio...
"every 10 % the whole sector goes up , OCA goes up 1 %."

Interested to see where you think the HY results would land based on your knowledge. I feel like a large timing issue at the end of the year could see an inflated first half of the year. Yet to really go big on the stock but built a small position so far.

[Maverick]

Interested to see where you think the HY results would land based on your knowledge. I feel like a large timing issue at the end of the year could see an inflated first half of the year. Yet to really go big on the stock but built a small position so far.
I don't mind offering my opinion, Value-I, for the up coming HY result due late January. After all, thats what this forum is here for.
I'm picking around $34 million underlying profit, which is about 35% higher than last years. I know this sounds ludicrous given last years result was flat.

The rate of new sales for last years late deliveries is the big variable that will mostly influence the result. All other factors are simple maths based on known values.
I have spoken with OCAs investor relations guy( nice fellow too) and he won't tell me or even the instos what the sales are doing. ( he said they try all kinds of ways to find out but he said they don't know any more than the rest of us). So that means the last known sales figures where the ones given at the annual meeting a few months ago. This means a large extrapolation based on a short time frame of data, not ideal. Based on those sales rates, the two big deliveries, browns bay and meadow bank, should sell down fully over 12 months. Based on other years deliveries and other retirement companies ,this also seems about right.

Earl has said, the care profit part of the business will be similar as last year. This is important because it has been reducing significantly for the last three years. Basically , wages rises, inefficient staffing rates(due to the inefficient occupancies)and also turning clients (revenue) away to allow the redevelopment of villages has caused this. Beagle and I disagree on this issue, as he has said here that he sees this as out of control expenses but OCAs reasoning does make sense to me after seeing first hand what they are doing on these sites. Interestingly the 2 major sites currently being built are both non operating sites so that issue isn't a biggie this FY. Unless of course Beagle is correct.

I don't see the result being weighted to either HY as the selling down should be fairly even with other new builds being completed and delivered on a fairly smooth timeline.

So there you have it, according to me it's going to be a stunning and sustainable result but as you will see by the share price , I'm the only guy who thinks so.

[Beagle]

Not a crime for OCA to update the market on sales progress...and I would bet my last dollar Macquarie know how things are going in great detail with monthly management reports. One thing I will be scrutinizing carefully with the half year result is the profitability from the existing care side of their operations.
For mine, they need to demonstrate that they can operate this, (the bulk of their business model for the next 2 years at least) without any further deterioration in profitability.
The company is very keen to talk up the transition of their business model, (which will take many years to come to fruition and is not by any means an all encompassing panacea for lack of cost control disciplines within their entire business), and much less keen to talk about how profitability is deteriorating in the care side of their operations. If the can't stop the rot and control costs properly that lack of discipline will affect profitability going forward forever and a day until they get a new CEO who is highly disciplined and not so focused on being a people pleaser. Earl is a nice guy, don't get me wrong, too nice is the problem. CEO's need a bit of mongrel in them and I don't think Earl has any.

[tim23]

$1.06 today best price in months with good volume too.

[winner69]

$1.06 today best price in months with good volume too.

Breakout happening. ..once we get over $1.10 it’s all on.

[Beagle]

Rising tide lifts all boats even those with systemic issues.

[couta1]

Breakout happening. ..once we get over $1.10 it’s all on. Its all on for Macca your friendly elephant, he's long overdue to offload a whole heap more peanuts at an illusionary bargin price.

[King1212]

Beagle...get him to join mongrel mob gang...

[percy]

I will have to "update" my reading on OCA before I attend an OCA presentation on the 25th.
Very quick skim of Hobson wealth research, I note they have a valuation of $1.40,and a out perform rating, with a $1.21 one year target price.
Interesting.

[whome]

Oceana man about to be interviewed on RadioNZ about simplifying retirement home contracts for anyone interested.

[penn]

Oceana man about to be interviewed on RadioNZ about simplifying retirement home contracts for anyone interested.

Thanks whome here is the link https://www.rnz.co.nz/audio/player?audio_id=2018721974

[whome]

Thanks Penn. Had a meeting so didn’t hear it. Now I can.

[Beagle]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/117450013/underfunding-of-rest-homes-shows-government-ageist (With thanks to Couta1 for sending me this link)

My concern - there is stuff all money to be made in providing care services so those companies which have the bulk of their business model in this area will continue to underperform.

[Blue Skies]

Starting to see some upward pressure on the sp.
Bit of a re-rating across the retirement sector due property outlook?

[couta1]

Starting to see some upward pressure on the sp.
Bit of a re-rating across the retirement sector due property outlook? Bit of relief for patient holders, especially those of an XXOS variety, I can hear the distant roar of Macca.

[Beagle]

Woohoo, breakout above $1.10. Very happy for Maverick !

[couta1]

Woohoo, breakout above $1.10. Very happy for Maverick ! Yep happy for Mav and I dare say the other big M will be starting to roar with delight as well.

[RTM]

Woohoo, breakout above $1.10. Very happy for Maverick !

VWAP 109.27
I need a bit more than that to call it a breakout.
But yes...some progress.

[Maverick]

Woohoo, breakout above $1.10. Very happy for Maverick !
:t_up::t_up::t_up:....Thanks Beagle and Couta, everyone has kicked a goal this week.

[Maverick]

Ok Fella`s, you will all be a bit jaundice by now on how very bullish I still am on OCA`s fundamentals and especially the up coming HY1 result. I've got nothing fresh to add about any of all that until we get some more intel.

What is outstanding right now about this company is its almost stagnant share price while all its peers have shot up.

The rises of share prices from their troughs from about 4 months ago (when the sector was out of favour) to date ( the sector all loved up again) are as follows;
SUM $5.60-$7.70…..+36%
RYM $11.90-$15.10….+27%
MET $4.30-$5.84…..+36%
ARV $1.28-$1.62….+27%
OCA $1.02-$1.08….+6% (sad emoji here)

Solely on “a rising tide raises all boats”, OCA should currently be worth $1.30 . That's completely discounting any of the good news I am expecting in January.

Even those out there worried about Maccas` possible dumping ( certainly not myself ) its hard to imagine them doing anything like that at this time of year.

Seems to me it's like an early Christmas present.

[Beagle]

You deserve some brownie points for your dogged determination.
I think the market will be focused on the possible MET takeover - merger this month.
Late next month we will see how OCA's care services are performing and their sales.

[Maverick]

You deserve some brownie points for your dogged determination.

"every dog has his day...."

[Beagle]

"every dog has his day...."

Very true mate, even a song written about it, enjoy :) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LWxS8jpgMmE

[Maverick]

Very true mate, even a song written about it, enjoy :) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LWxS8jpgMmE
"every dog has his day.......just today it just aint yours", nice one Beagle, maybe tomorrow then?

[Beagle]

"every dog has his day.......just today it just aint yours", nice one Beagle, maybe tomorrow then?

As long as you take a "dogged" approach you'll get your bone sometime mate :)

[Mudfish]

January 24 it is then.

[BlackPeter]

January 24 it is then.

Looks like somebody can't wait for Christmas in January (January 24 this is): SP closed today at 1.12 - i.e. the long standing resistance at 1.10 is truly smashed. All up from here? Lots of lengths to recover to catch up with the field ...

BTW - just noticed ... OGC passed a week ago the "Golden Cross". What possibly could go wrong from here?

[couta1]

As long as you take a "dogged" approach you'll get your bone sometime mate :) Let's see how much meat is left on the bone after the expense dog has had his meal.

[Beagle]

Let's see how much meat is left on the bone after the expense dog has had his meal.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8BpkFGGQMJU Not much LOL
Now...as much as I love dogs there's no way in the world I would be kissing that one after a feed :ohmy:

[couta1]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8BpkFGGQMJU Not much LOL
Now...as much as I love dogs there's no way in the world I would be kissing that one after a feed :ohmy: Haha, that dog's nearly as big as Macca, I hope those small dogs in that clip dont represent shareholders licking the empty bowls.

[Beagle]

Haha, that dog's nearly as big as Macca, I hope those small dogs in that clip dont represent shareholders licking the empty bowls.

Not much left eh :ohmy:

[Baa_Baa]

If one subscribes to the view that the long term demographic of the demand side means this industry is 'well placed' to capitalise on a few more decades of growth, then OCA is now the best value play in the sector.

Savvy investors might be enjoying impressive upside capital gains and earnings if invested in the majors in this sector whereas they might also be enjoying a sustained under performing (in SP terms) company to accumulate a decent holding that has 'only' achieved a 10%+ capital gain, not including dividends, while positioning for a few baggers capital upside in the out years, plus dividends.

Patience is a b1tch, she harangues us with under performance in light of peers in the industry which is fair enough, but to take that on board in TOTO one misses the out years opportunity that value investors have such an acute eye for. OCA is cheap, very cheap for the value it offers and the returns it will give.

[Maverick]

baa Baa ! I have a friend out there. I think there will soon be many more.

I am always about fundamentals and value so am completely comfortable paitiently waiting for OCAs time to come,but I actually think that catch up is finally starting to happen.
The sell orders are really getting thin now. I've seen this pattern before with the other retirement stocks before they have shot off.

As I have said earlier , it needs to go to $1.30 just to catch up inline with its peers. Then add a very solid result in January and $1.12 will seem very cheap.

[couta1]

baa Baa ! I have a friend out there. I think there will soon be many more.

I am always about fundamentals and value so am completely comfortable paitiently waiting for OCAs time to come,but I actually think that catch up is finally starting to happen.
The sell orders are really getting thin now. I've seen this pattern before with the other retirement stocks before they have shot off.

As I have said earlier , it needs to go to $1.30 just to catch up inline with its peers. Then add a very solid result in January and $1.12 will seem very cheap. Long term your dogged patience will pay off due to their increasing build rate which will eventually overcome the expense issues to a large degree, short term that's the other elephant in the room, apart from that the price should be $1.50 right now. Macca needs to leave or be significantly reduced in size, as soon as the price gets to a certain level another large dump of shares will take place and unless that's taken up by a large passive fund or the like then those shares are going to get recirculated for some time capping the price once again. On a personal level I see no hurry to take another large position at this point in time until I see solid progress on the above issues but admire your stance.

[Davexl]

Nice to see some decent movement in the share price to $1.15. Yay! Still slightly underwater from Beagles "OCA,OCA,OCA"! calls but heading in the right direction. Hope the momentum holds up with the Jan 24 announcement. Good luck to all patient holders...

[RTM]

Nice to see some decent movement in the share price to $1.15. Yay! Still slightly underwater from Beagles "OCA,OCA,OCA"! calls but heading in the right direction. Hope the momentum holds up with the Jan 24 announcement. Good luck to all patient holders...

Yes....you gotta be careful with yappy dogs. On both sides of the fence. However I do recall he barked when HGH reached around 214......
Happy holder here. Portfolio allocation filled at 101c, (4% currently) and enjoying OK dividend.

[couta1]

Nice increase for holders but sp should be near $1.50 right now, ask yourself why it isn't.

[mfd]

Nice increase for holders but sp should be near $1.50 right now, ask yourself why it isn't.

And then ask yourself how many you feel comfortable loading up on while the price is reasonable.

[couta1]

And then ask yourself how many you feel comfortable loading up on while the price is reasonable. If I had a big holding still I'd be doing the opposite at $1.16 and cashing up a few chips.

[Beagle]

No investor in the world gets every single call right. Many professionals consider they've done well if they get 7 out of 10 investment decisions right, (I'm much harder on my self) and expect at least 8 out of 10 right, preferably 9.

[Ggcc]

My biggest holding is OCA and it is having a beauty of a run. Long may it continue as this is one of my longterm holding assets. I may sell down some of the longterm hold portfolio, if it is massively out of balance. That should be a while away.

[penn]

My biggest holding is OCA and it is having a beauty of a run. Long may it continue as this is one of my longterm holding assets. I may sell down some of the longterm hold portfolio, if it is massively out of balance. That should be a while away.

One of my biggest too, and after that strong close, the sell side does look pretty thin right now.

[ratkin]

Classic case of a high tide lifting all boats?

[penn]

The Retirement sector 'boats' are doing well but there are still a few on the NZX that will not rise.

[value_investor]

Patience is required, the stock will rise eventually if they can show their competencies over a period of time. You can compare to SUM or RYM but keep in mind those stocks have proven themselves to us over a long period of time consistently. I have a small position that I'd like to add onto but I need to see more.

If you are truly long term, you should be okay with getting in at $1.02 or $1.32 for example. If you are holding long term then one day its going to be worth lets say in excess of $5.

[Baa_Baa]

baa Baa ! I have a friend out there. I think there will soon be many more.

I am always about fundamentals and value so am completely comfortable paitiently waiting for OCAs time to come,but I actually think that catch up is finally starting to happen.
The sell orders are really getting thin now. I've seen this pattern before with the other retirement stocks before they have shot off.

As I have said earlier , it needs to go to $1.30 just to catch up inline with its peers. Then add a very solid result in January and $1.12 will seem very cheap.

Hey Maverick, we're all in this together. We're not blind to the short-medium term challenges and I think you'll find that the silent majority here have a more optimistic and longer term horizon than the vocal few, albeit they're certainly correct imo about the recent present and perhaps into the medium term view. I don't mind the constant reminders of our folly, real or not. I say not.

The only thing I sincerely disagree with the cautionary non-holders about, as I have laid out previously, is fear of the Macca "overhang". I won't bother repeating the detail, my assessment is documented here. I have no fear of it, or the consequence of their eventual exit, imho it will be orderly, off-market and not price affective.

OCA has presented a perfect opportunity for my needs, as not all of us can lob a few 10's or 100's of k$ into a stock in one go, so being a prolonged suppressed SP has enabled me to accumulate a decent prudent portfolio holding positioning for the future. I feel content having a holding that is in the black already that I have no intention of selling, and having one of the few of my selections that I can honestly consider as a value play.

All the best, the future is ours and our fellow shareholders to enjoy.

[Beagle]

Patience is required, the stock will rise eventually if they can show their competencies over a period of time. You can compare to SUM or RYM but keep in mind those stocks have proven themselves to us over a long period of time consistently. I have a small position that I'd like to add onto but I need to see more.

If you are truly long term, you should be okay with getting in at $1.02 or $1.32 for example. If you are holding long term then one day its going to be worth lets say in excess of $5.

This is very well said. They have much to prove as a very young company on the NZX. I will need to see evidence they can stop the decline in profitability in their core care operations which account for about 80% of their current business model. Disciplined cost control and efficient management of the care operations is essential to profit growth.

As for a rising tide lifts all boats, that from experience is unfortunately not true. If they have leaks in them they don't rise as much as others. A good tough skipper also helps a lot and one wonders if Earl Gasparich is simply too nice... Having a ton of weight on this from a resident elephant is also weighing it down. Fix the leaks and get rid of the elephant, (which will take time), and it should be a good performer.

[King1212]

Well most of shareholders were betrayed by Macquarie last time...? Isnt it....

[winner69]

If MET sales goes ahead Tthe NZ Superfund would have enough cash to help Macca out - assuming they will keep that cash in the sector

Like selling out of one dog and buying into another dog ....and hoping it’ll be OK

Wonder if this is behind the sudden spurt in the OCA share price .....and if it goes above $1.20 Macca offering a discount might still be OK for them

[oldtech]

Up another 3 cents already, to $1.18 ... keep going you good thing :t_up:

[couta1]

Up another 3 cents already, to $1.18 ... keep going you good thing :t_up: Definately a sell signal for those looking to lighten up.

[Blendy]

yes, happy christmas to me! I'll gladly reduce my holding and take a holiday somewhere fancy :)

[Maverick]

I've got a question for the seniors here who have worked inside corporate life (like you Winner)

OCA has shot up so quick on no news. Yes yes , lots of catch up to happen and still way under valued IMO but the speed has been breath taking. Now this is OCA we are talking about, It's almost famous for being so boringly flat.(check out the SP graph for the last year)
Soooo , my question .....is it a likely scenario that the fellas doing the HY 1 results right now (the period finished end on November and due out end of next month) have spilled the beans on a really good upcoming result? I personally am anticipating it to be a 30 % profit increase YOY.
if my calcs are in fact correct on the big jump in profit, then is a leak possible or no way that actually happens here?
I am ignorant on this , while it's seems likely to me leaks happen, I know the penalties are very harsh in NZ.

[tim23]

I've got a question for the seniors here who have worked inside corporate life (like you Winner)

OCA has shot up so quick on no news. Yes yes , lots of catch up to happen and still way under valued IMO but the speed has been breath taking. Now this is OCA we are talking about, It's almost famous for being so boringly flat.(check out the SP graph for the last year)
Soooo , my question .....is it a likely scenario that the fellas doing the HY 1 results right now (the period finished end on November and due out end of next month) have spilled the beans on a really good upcoming result? I personally am anticipating it to be a 30 % profit increase YOY.
if my calcs are in fact correct on the big jump in profit, then is a leak possible or no way that actually happens here?
I am ignorant on this , while it's seems likely to me leaks happen, I know the penalties are very harsh in NZ.

They have had a good run on back of Metlife just as have ARV

[couta1]

I've got a question for the seniors here who have worked inside corporate life (like you Winner)

OCA has shot up so quick on no news. Yes yes , lots of catch up to happen and still way under valued IMO but the speed has been breath taking. Now this is OCA we are talking about, It's almost famous for being so boringly flat.(check out the SP graph for the last year)
Soooo , my question .....is it a likely scenario that the fellas doing the HY 1 results right now (the period finished end on November and due out end of next month) have spilled the beans on a really good upcoming result? I personally am anticipating it to be a 30 % profit increase YOY.
if my calcs are in fact correct on the big jump in profit, then is a leak possible or no way that actually happens here?
I am ignorant on this , while it's seems likely to me leaks happen, I know the penalties are very harsh in NZ. More a case of buy the rumour sell the fact if the results dont measure up to the expected outcome.

[bull....]

the rally in retirement stocks is largely thanks to the RBNZ 50 point cut in interest rates

[winner69]

Sure has been a sudden burst in the share price eh Maverick

You ask why

Responses have covered 1) sector in favour (rising tides etc) but OCA a bit late to the party and 2) anticipation of a boomer half year result (Couts buy the rumour, sell the fact) but usually such behaviour is closer to the announcement and not a month out.

Those 2 factors have no doubt played a part but I have the feeling that it’s related to what Couta has been on about how funds recycling shares are also how Macca is playing the market. Price action now vaguely similar in the leadup to the last sell Macca sell down. Watch this space.

But then again it might just be private equity taking a stake before launching a takeover.

[King1212]

What private equity takeover..winner? I hope not.... otherwise All NZX companies will be taken out n we have no NZ companies

[dobby41]

What private equity takeover..winner? I hope not.... otherwise All NZX companies will be taken out n we have no NZ companies

Given Kiwis have a bad habit of selling into an offer this is entirely possible.
We don't seem to back much for the long term - get a nice looking short term offer and off we go.

[Beagle]

I've got a question for the seniors here who have worked inside corporate life (like you Winner)

OCA has shot up so quick on no news. Yes yes , lots of catch up to happen and still way under valued IMO but the speed has been breath taking. Now this is OCA we are talking about, It's almost famous for being so boringly flat.(check out the SP graph for the last year)
Soooo , my question .....is it a likely scenario that the fellas doing the HY 1 results right now (the period finished end on November and due out end of next month) have spilled the beans on a really good upcoming result? I personally am anticipating it to be a 30 % profit increase YOY.
if my calcs are in fact correct on the big jump in profit, then is a leak possible or no way that actually happens here?
I am ignorant on this , while it's seems likely to me leaks happen, I know the penalties are very harsh in NZ.

The whole sector is on fire and anticipating a good year ahead. Yes, it really is that simple.

[BlackPeter]

Bigger than OCA, but just some random thoughts:

Just listening to the news of Australia on fire ... and looking at the Australian population pyramid (https://www.worldometers.info/demographics/australia-demographics/). Nearly 4 million Australians are currently between 65 and 85 and each of them can at any stage just hop on a plane to NZ and stay here forever.

If only 1% of them decide that they have enough of the increasing heat and the smoke and want to spend the reminder of their years in a more benign climate with less smoke in the air - this would be already 40.000 more people queuing up for a nice retirement village place in NZ.

I recon I need to increase my share of retirement stocks (with OCA being one of the most reasonable priced) . The future looks sizzling hot ...

[Blue Skies]

Bigger than OCA, but just some random thoughts:

Just listening to the news of Australia on fire ... and looking at the Australian population pyramid (https://www.worldometers.info/demographics/australia-demographics/). Nearly 4 million Australians are currently between 65 and 85 and each of them can at any stage just hop on a plane to NZ and stay here forever.

If only 1% of them decide that they have enough of the increasing heat and the smoke and want to spend the reminder of their years in a more benign climate with less smoke in the air - this would be already 40.000 more people queuing up for a nice retirement village place in NZ.

I recon I need to increase my share of retirement stocks (with OCA being one of the most reasonable priced) . The future looks sizzling hot ...

Yes, I've been thinking the same thing :)

[Brain]

We have been taking friends from Wellington around retirement villages. They had almost decided on a two bedroom unit at summerset Ellerslie for about 900k. I took them out to the Sands and it was a no brainer for them they paid a deposit the next day for a 1.2 M$ unit. We were all very impressed with the Sands. Proximity to the beach and restaurants in Browns Bay make it an excellent location. Our friends had a number of units to choose from. Oceania will not have any trouble selling these ultimately. The restriction that all residents have to be 70 and over could rule out a lot of prospective buyers. OCA have done a great job with the Sands. I believe it bodes well for the future. I am a happy shareholder.

[Baa_Baa]

... also how Macca is playing the market. Price action now vaguely similar in the leadup to the last sell Macca sell down. Watch this space.

But then again it might just be private equity taking a stake before launching a takeover.

Other than doing nothing which seems to be the case (if they had done anything it would be announced if more than a % movement) Macquarie might be looking at the nice rise recently to find some insto's to offload to off-market. Otherwise there's no evidence Macquarie are doing anything at the moment and they probably see the potential to close out their fund that OCA is part of with a windfall profit... which isn't now or anytime soon.

As for private equity, who knows really, the big money might want to hedge their acquisition plays in this sector in which case OCA is a logical alternative choice value play to buying the leaky building saga at MET. I'd be disappointed to see an acquisition bid on OCA, I reckon they'll run up a 3-5 bagger from here before the serious money wants a long term sniff.

[Maverick]

We have been taking friends from Wellington around retirement villages. They had almost decided on a two bedroom unit at summerset Ellerslie for about 900k. I took them out to the Sands and it was a no brainer for them they paid a deposit the next day for a 1.2 M$ unit. We were all very impressed with the Sands. Proximity to the beach and restaurants in Browns Bay make it an excellent location. Our friends had a number of units to choose from. Oceania will not have any trouble selling these ultimately. The restriction that all residents have to be 70 and over could rule out a lot of prospective buyers. OCA have done a great job with the Sands. I believe it bodes well for the future. I am a happy shareholder.
Nice feed back Brain, thanks for posting.
Yes, once you've visited OCAs Sands(and others ) you can clearly see their style with the premium makeovers they are all about , and the areas they are in.
By any chance do you or your friends know how many units were sold and under contract (or still available) and the sale price groups they fall into, they have 3 rates. And if you do know any of this what was the date.

[Beagle]

If they ran a disciplined approach towards cost control I'd be in. The market needs to see more evidence that internal controls regarding cost are working well. OCA could get some support in 2020 from funds reinvested into the sector from the cash generated by the takeover of MET. The other big beneficiary from a MET takeover will be SUM which is still cheap on a forward earnings basis considering their long established and very well proven growth rate.

[peat]

Brains anecdote seems to indicate a certain amount of price flexibility at the good end. Perhaps OCA will maximise this aspect and costs will be less critical to success. Of course some discipline but I just that sometimes you have to spend more than say an industry average to sustain premium quality and branding. Location not so important in this case either...
Quality lingers.

Mav, a nod is as good as a wink anywhere though its a lot easier to get caught with trails these days, so the rumours will spread but only the well and truly disconnected can have any hope of getting away with it.
Back in the old days when I first worked in the stockbroking trade it wasnt even illegal. All those printed contract notes out in the back office got seen by a lot of people haha.

[Brain]

Nice feed back Brain, thanks for posting.
Yes, once you've visited OCAs Sands(and others ) you can clearly see their style with the premium makeovers they are all about , and the areas they are in.
By any chance do you or your friends know how many units were sold and under contract (or still available) and the sale price groups they fall into, they have 3 rates. And if you do know any of this what was the date.

Sorry Maverick I don’t know the answers to your questions for sure because I didn’t want to grill the sales Manager which is what I would wind up doing to get accurate answers.
My impression is that probably nearly half of the independent units are sold or under contract and probably evenly distributed in the price tiers. I have no idea about the occupancy of the care suites.

we visited 2 days ago.

I guess my key takeaway is that this place is classy. It has an energy about it being located close to the beach and shopping centre. Many of the places we visited did not have this energy they had the feeling of this is where people come to die. Not the case with the Sands.

If OCA can continue to do this type of development they will be developing a great brand. Happy to be a shareholder.

[Maverick]

Thanks for the response Brain. Just for fun I put your 50% Sand apartments sold into the s/sheets. I fully understand your figure is just an impression and very rough. It is a little less than sales I had extrapolated from last known info given by OCA in September.
I have also applied this new, lower sales rate to their other building currently selling down ,Meadowbank stage 4.
The updated result from Brains guess is HY1 profit of 31M , apply a PE of 13.5 and the share price should be $1.38
I have been predicting, using the extrapolated sales rates from actual known sales back in September, the share price under the same conditions would be $1.50.
So lots of share price appreciation ahead either way.

These HY1 profit forcasts includes the care side profit of the business as being flat.

The problem with waiting for Macca to finish their exit, waiting for more "proof" the care costs are under control and waiting more years to financials to look back on is that the share price will have also adjusted upwards accordingly. I think ARV is a good example of this as far as share price growth and time taken to get market acceptance goes.

Its hard to imagine being able to buy OCA at $1.02 ever again. New share holders now have to pay an extra 15% to get on board.

[Baa_Baa]

Weekly chart, log scale (https://invst.ly/p6tbf). Technical breakout this week from longish term resistance, now support. Trend line breakouts Oct & Nov confirmed. Not too late to get some, $1.21-$1.23 should provide stern price resistance. Break up through there ATH has blue skies above.

Enjoy :)

[winner69]

Weekly chart, log scale (https://invst.ly/p6tbf). Technical breakout this week from longish term resistance, now support. Trend line breakouts Oct & Nov confirmed. Not too late to get some, $1.21-$1.23 should provide stern price resistance. Break up through there ATH has blue skies above.

Enjoy :)

Love this talk of ATH and blue skies

I reckon 2020 will be Oceania's year

Not $20.20 share price but $2.20 by Christmas next year will do

[Beagle]

If there was deep value at the current price like some here are suggesting multiple parties including private equity would be talking to Macca's and OCA's board about a takeover instead of MET. We're still 2 years away at least from this company being 50/50 new business model with ORA based care v old model which has more cost leaks than a sieve.

I hope it is $2.20 by Christmas 2020 because if it is SUM will be ~ $15.

I think the ideal time for Macca's to dump their remaining ~ 250 million shares is when shareholders have their cash in hand from the MET takeover. There will be a lot of money looking for a new home in the sector at that point.

[winner69]

If there was deep value at the current price like some here are suggesting multiple parties including private equity would be talking to Macca's and OCA's board about a takeover instead of MET. We're still 2 years away at least from this company being 50/50 new business model with ORA based care v old model which has more cost leaks than a sieve.

I hope it is $2.20 by Christmas 2020 because if it is SUM will be ~ $15.

I think the ideal time for Macca's to dump their remaining ~ 250 million shares is when shareholders have their cash in hand from the MET takeover. There will be a lot of money looking for a new home in the sector at that point.

Don’t be so down on Oceania and spoil the excitement we are having - it’s christmas after all.;)

Interesting NZ Superfund’s 20% of MET would be enough (with a bit of change) to take Macquarie 40% odd of OCA ...hmm

[trader_jackson]

If there was deep value at the current price like some here are suggesting multiple parties including private equity would be talking to Macca's and OCA's board about a takeover instead of MET. We're still 2 years away at least from this company being 50/50 new business model with ORA based care v old model which has more cost leaks than a sieve.

I hope it is $2.20 by Christmas 2020 because if it is SUM will be ~ $15.

I think the ideal time for Macca's to dump their remaining ~ 250 million shares is when shareholders have their cash in hand from the MET takeover. There will be a lot of money looking for a new home in the sector at that point.

... and ARV will be at least $4

[Beagle]

... and ARV will be at least $4

and of course RYM will be...$30 :) Seriously though, it should be a good year for this sector in 2020 and I see no reason why well established companies with a proven track record of growth should be trading below the median level of the NZX50 of about 19 PE.

ARV already about there, maybe $2 next year, SUM should attain $10 in 2020, MET should get taken over and the acquirer will be getting a genuine bargain at ~ $7.25 and OCA should do well too if they can show there is no further ongoing erosion in the profitability of their core care services, maybe $1.40 next year.
RYM already on very stretched multiples but the overseas insto's love them so who knows, it might crack $20 in 2020 :ohmy:

Winner tells me its nearly Christmas so I put my charitable hat on speaking of those price targets except of course MET and SUM which are a given and probably very conservative :)

[winner69]

OCA been a dog stock most of the year

Probably why this is a headline in the SMH

Christmas cancelled at the millionaires' factory

Last week, as workers across varying industries were gifted Christmas hampers, gingerbread houses and bottles of bubbles some staff at Macquarie Bank finished up the year with, well, nothing.

[LAC]

There’s a few on here that go with the wind, within 12 months, OCA is the best thing since sliced bread, then it’s crap then back to it being the bees kneez. SUM was the best business of them all, then they can’t sell stock they built, now they going to be worth a gazzillion dollars a share in the next 12 months. MET and ARV never in the race, now they are...
You guys should quit it aye, there are some young traders on here that will believe the nonesense that is put out because they don’t know how to DYOR. So please think about them when you put out “cr@p”.

[Beagle]

OCA been a dog stock most of the year

Probably why this is a headline in the SMH

Christmas cancelled at the millionaires' factory

Last week, as workers across varying industries were gifted Christmas hampers, gingerbread houses and bottles of bubbles some staff at Macquarie Bank finished up the year with, well, nothing.

Not enough deals done eh. They'll be anxious to do a deal next year on OCA and book a nice profit to generate their usual lavish Christmas bonus.
Look out for a full 250 million share dump on OCA in 2020. What price to get that many shares placed ?

[Maverick]

There’s a few on here that go with the wind, within 12 months, OCA is the best thing since sliced bread, then it’s crap then back to it being the bees kneez. SUM was the best business of them all, then they can’t sell stock they built, now they going to be worth a gazzillion dollars a share in the next 12 months. MET and ARV never in the race, now they are...
You guys should quit it aye, there are some young traders on here that will believe the nonesense that is put out because they don’t know how to DYOR. So please think about them when you put out “cr@p”.
Thank you for your feedback LAC.

It's a shame you didn't make yourself known to us at the SUM (WTG) or OCA AGM's (AKLD) Even though Winner, Beagle , Couta, Goose,Artemis ,Forrest,John B, and myself bothered to show up.(mostly from out of town)
Perhaps your post makes more sense if you where serving at McMurdo Antarctic base camp during 2019 and missed the thing that property in Aussy/ Auckland was about to crash but then came right . Maybe the inverted 3yr/10 yr USAyield curve thing that predicts global crashes went from "OMG its all over" to "nobody cares anymore" happened while you were down there.
My point is , there are good guys out there putting in lots of effort to offer well researched opinions at no cost to you. Investing is an environment that is constantly changing and so should the opinions that go with it. I applaud anyone who can change their stance to go with a new situation as they see it.
Maybe the newbies here who don't bother doing their own research should pay some real money to some guy in fancy suit who can speak smooth words to them as to where to spread their investments.( Can't go wrong with that)

Just remind me again LAC of your researched contributions, I seem to have forgotten them.

[Beagle]

Great post mate. All communication must have been down all year at McMurdo Antarctic base too :)

One thing I think we can all agree on is that prospects for 2020 in this sector look very good so I hope everyone has a fulsome allocation to the retirement sector and does really well.

[Snow Leopard]

Probably best if everybody remembers that this is a chat site and the only post you should take any notice of is this one telling you not to take notice of anything posted on this site.

Hope everybody had a happy solstice.

[whome]

Right on Maverick. Merry Christmas to all.

[winner69]

Thank you for your feedback LAC.


Maybe the newbies here who don't bother doing their own research should pay some real money to some guy in fancy suit who can speak smooth words to them as to where to spread their investments.( Can't go wrong with that)

.

Those that also wear those clear glasses to make them look a lot smarter are pretty good value I’m told ....even more so if they love Taylor Swift

[BlackPeter]

There’s a few on here that go with the wind, within 12 months, OCA is the best thing since sliced bread, then it’s crap then back to it being the bees kneez. SUM was the best business of them all, then they can’t sell stock they built, now they going to be worth a gazzillion dollars a share in the next 12 months. MET and ARV never in the race, now they are...
You guys should quit it aye, there are some young traders on here that will believe the nonesense that is put out because they don’t know how to DYOR. So please think about them when you put out “cr@p”.


Probably best if everybody remembers that this is a chat site and the only post you should take any notice of is this one telling you not to take notice of anything posted on this site.

Hope everybody had a happy solstice.

Well, I learned a lot about investing on forums like this one, and while it is true that some posters contribute mainly white (or biased) noise, there are plenty of useful contributions which I use as input to further research and which helped me to become a better investor.

A forum like that is like the chat around a water cooler in a company ... you can bounce ideas and get often unexpected input - and most importantly you get different views to your own, which can help to at least recognize ones own biases.

So - I would not go that for to recommend not to take notice of any of the posts here, but it certainly is not a good idea to use any of them as a guaranteed prediction of the future. Its horses for courses - and some of the stuff here is useful to justify some further investigation (DYOR). However buying or selling just based on some others posters views is lunacy, nearly as bad as afterwards complaining if the alleged or perceived predictions didn't eventuate.

Anyway - PT caught me with the "happy solstice", but he is right (as often) - it does lie already in the past. Anyway - our forebears used to celebrate only after the event (when they noticed that the days in the northern hemisphere are getting longer again), and so there is still time to wish everybody a Merry Christmas.

Some of you rock ... thanks for helping to make this an interesting place!

[winner69]

Well, I learned a lot about investing on forums like this one, and while it is true that some posters contribute mainly white (or biased) noise, there are plenty of useful contributions which I use as input to further research and which helped me to become a better investor.

A forum like that is like the chat around a water cooler in a company ... you can bounce ideas and get often unexpected input - and most importantly you get different views to your own, which can help to at least recognize ones own biases.

So - I would not go that for to recommend not to take notice of any of the posts here, but it certainly is not a good idea to use any of them as a guaranteed prediction of the future. Its horses for courses - and some of the stuff here is useful to justify some further investigation (DYOR). However buying or selling just based on some others posters views is lunacy, nearly as bad as afterwards complaining if the alleged or perceived predictions didn't eventuate.

Anyway - PT caught me with the "happy solstice", but he is right (as often) - it does lie already in the past. Anyway - our forebears used to celebrate only after the event (when they noticed that the days in the northern hemisphere are getting longer again), and so there is still time to wish everybody a Merry Christmas.

Some of you rock ... thanks for helping to make this an interesting place!

You rock too BlackPeter ...Merry Christmas to you and your loved ones and may 2020 see continued big investment returns while enjoying life.

[Beagle]

Someone lite a fire under OCA today. People thinking some funds from the MET takeover might get reinvested in OCA ? Quite likely in my opinion.

[LAC]

Thank you for your feedback LAC.

It's a shame you didn't make yourself known to us at the SUM (WTG) or OCA AGM's (AKLD) Even though Winner, Beagle , Couta, Goose,Artemis ,Forrest,John B, and myself bothered to show up.(mostly from out of town)
Perhaps your post makes more sense if you where serving at McMurdo Antarctic base camp during 2019 and missed the thing that property in Aussy/ Auckland was about to crash but then came right . Maybe the inverted 3yr/10 yr USAyield curve thing that predicts global crashes went from "OMG its all over" to "nobody cares anymore" happened while you were down there.
My point is , there are good guys out there putting in lots of effort to offer well researched opinions at no cost to you. Investing is an environment that is constantly changing and so should the opinions that go with it. I applaud anyone who can change their stance to go with a new situation as they see it.
Maybe the newbies here who don't bother doing their own research should pay some real money to some guy in fancy suit who can speak smooth words to them as to where to spread their investments.( Can't go wrong with that)

Just remind me again LAC of your researched contributions, I seem to have forgotten them.

I totally agree that there are good guys on here, however there are some that post with no research (no real research, just numbers out the air), when they see the SP head north. And there are some that post with great research and the numbers make a lot of sense. All I am saying is that if you are posting for your own benefit then please think about those actions.
My contributions are minimal on here, I mainly post when I take a position in a stock or respond to annual results/announcements. I am no accountant for sure, just look at long term businesses to invest in hence I only post when I am in or out of something and others can research why:)
I was posted out of NZ most of 2019 so I missed more than just the retirement AGM's this year.
Disc: 55% of my portfolio is in SUM and 15% in OCA, was accumulating when all the negatives were being posted about them.

[winner69]

Someone lite a fire under OCA today. People thinking some funds from the MET takeover might get reinvested in OCA ? Quite likely in my opinion.

Don’t forget NZ Super 20% of MET will buy Macca’s share OCA

Win win around

CANT HAVE ENOUGH OCA is the war cry

[Beagle]

Don’t forget NZ Super 20% of MET will buy Macca’s share OCA

Win win around

CANT HAVE ENOUGH OCA is the war cry

It certainly was a year ago lol. Best wishes to Maverick, I know he has HEAPS and he's a good bloke and does his absolute best to share the insights he has.
I admire people who with no formal investment analysis training who do there very best to learn new skills and share their knowledge and analysis freely on here.

$1.21 now, I'm very happy for Maverick and other holders.

[couta1]

It certainly was a year ago lol. Best wishes to Maverick, I know he has HEAPS and he's a good bloke and does his absolute best to share the insights he has.
I admire people who with no formal investment analysis training who do there very best to learn new skills and share their knowledge and analysis freely on here.

$1.21 now, I'm very happy for Maverick and other holders. Yes well done to the dogged patient such as Mav, I've been fortunate enough to be in the same position with HLG/A2 and most of all BAL this year, staying the course and following your Gutometer no matter what others say is the way to go.

[Baa_Baa]

Echoing the best wishes to Mav for staying the course. Even those folks who bought the highs, with the unexpected dividend and who didn't sell, should be back in the black now.

:t_up:

[Davexl]

Echoing the best wishes to Mav for staying the course. Even those folks who bought the highs, with the unexpected dividend and who didn't sell, should be back in the black now.

:t_up:

I bought most of mine a year ago around $1.17 with the OCA battle cry ringing in my ears and had actually put my large shareholding on sale at $1.18 to lighten up and move elsewhere but something made me change my mind and the order was cancelled. Now at $1.22 I have a grateful heart (which goes with the time of year!) so I think I'll hold for now and see if this sentiment swing continues into the new year.:) While I'm trying to do my own analysis, I 'm certainly no accountant, but I am learning fast, particularly from one or two big mistakes that Beagle helped put me right on, so Merry Christmas all and let's see what the new year brings...

[winner69]

All good on the western front

Hope the upcoming half year result isn’t another one of selling heaps more units and making stuff all extra profit.

[couta1]

I bought most of mine a year ago around $1.17 with the OCA battle cry ringing in my ears and had actually put my large shareholding on sale at $1.18 to lighten up and move elsewhere but something made me change my mind and the order was cancelled. Now at $1.22 I have a grateful heart (which goes with the time of year!) so I think I'll hold for now and see if this sentiment swing continues into the new year.:) While I'm trying to do my own analysis, I 'm certainly no accountant, but I am learning fast, particularly from one or two big mistakes that Beagle helped put me right on, so Merry Christmas all and let's see what the new year brings... You could cover both bases by selling half at current price and see what the result brings.

[Beagle]

All good on the western front

Hope the upcoming half year result isn’t another one of selling heaps more units and making stuff all extra profit.

Hope they simplify their financial statements and focus on underlying profit. They could learn a LOT from reading RYM's statements to the NZX. Always starts off with the key facts of how much underlying profit has grown.

If Earl's kicks off the announcement with how much they've invested in their staff and systems...

[macduffy]

You could cover both bases by selling half at current price and see what the result brings.

Or you could ride the current uptrend until it turns down. I am.

:cool:

[couta1]

Or you could ride the current uptrend until it turns down. I am.

:cool: Looks topped at $1.23 and until the result is known a gift horse shouldnt be turned away.

[Beagle]

Looks topped at $1.23 and until the result is known a gift horse shouldnt be turned away.

Pretty sure that's where it maxed out last time before shortly afterwards Macca's flooded the market with as many shares as they could.
For me its a case of once bitten twice shy with this one. Hasn't been a very productive hunting ground for this dog. Lot of effort for minimal eating.

[couta1]

Pretty sure that's where it maxed out last time before shortly afterwards Macca's flooded the market with as many shares as they could.
For me its a case of once bitten twice shy with this one. Hasn't been a very productive hunting ground for this dog. Lot of effort for minimal eating. Yep and those peanuts Macca spits out hurt.

[Beagle]

Yep and those peanuts Macca spits out hurt.

LOL I have a simple rule with this one. Elephants are much bigger than Beagle's so I stay out of their way in case I get trodden on :)
Wouldn't it be ironic if it was Macquarie taking over MET !

[couta1]

LOL I have a simple rule with this one. Elephants are much bigger than Beagle's so I stay out of their way in case I get trodden on :)
Wouldn't it be ironic if it was Macquarie taking over MET ! Stranger thinks have happened but if it turns out true I will be out of MET like a rat deserting a sinking ship, although it might be good for OCA holders if they merge the two companies.

[Baa_Baa]

A reminder about the Macquarie sell last time:

The effect on OCA at the time of the Macquarie 95m shares selldown was (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9856-Oceania-Group-retirement-villages&p=771260&viewfull=1#post771260)virtually nothing (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9856-Oceania-Group-retirement-villages&p=771260&viewfull=1#post771260)!

It was an off-market block trade deal with a syndicate (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9856-Oceania-Group-retirement-villages&p=771268&viewfull=1#post771268)

[Beagle]

Stranger thinks have happened but if it turns out true I will be out of MET like a rat deserting a sinking ship, although it might be good for OCA holders if they merge the two companies.

What I was thinking.

Little immediate effect Baa Baa but by my reckoning those shares got recycled back into the market and effectively there was what amounted to an oversupply issue.

[couta1]

What I was thinking.

Little immediate effect Baa Baa but by my reckoning those shares got recycled back into the market and effectively there was what amounted to an oversupply issue. The eventual recycling capped the price IMO, the trading pattern was clear to me.

[Maverick]

Wow, just wow! What a day.
i really appreciate the kind thoughts guys. The thing I really like about making money on shares is that it doesnt come at the expense of someone else. Everyone can win.

Congratulations to everyone in the sector today whatever team/s you're on. Days like today don't come around very often.

[Ggcc]

Wow, just wow! What a day.
i really appreciate the kind thoughts guys. The thing I really like about making money on shares is that it doesnt come at the expense of someone else. Everyone can win.

Congratulations to everyone in the sector today whatever team/s you're on. Days like today don't come around very often.
I agree. Thank goodness I own loads of shares in the entire sector and am happy to watch them
All fly. Have a merry Christmas maverick

[Beagle]

Wow, just wow! What a day.
i really appreciate the kind thoughts guys. The thing I really like about making money on shares is that it doesnt come at the expense of someone else. Everyone can win.

Congratulations to everyone in the sector today whatever team/s you're on. Days like today don't come around very often.

It is very cool. Reminds me what its like to be a kid again at Christmas time and that's a feeling that's very pleasant to recapture. I am certainly really looking forward to opening my MET Christmas present on 27 December. The best presents are the one's you give yourself :t_up: If its a good strong bid that's going to go through I think there will be considerable further momentum in the whole sector as MET investors redeploy their takeover cash and others in a position to buy in ahead of the takeover payout do so in anticipation of further momentum.

[Nigel]

And yet OCA is still trading at only half the PE and twice the dividend of MET. #cheapaschips

[value_investor]

And yet OCA is still trading at only half the PE and twice the dividend of MET. #cheapaschips

Depends on the lens you're looking at. MET is under market speculation at a ridiculous price imo. RYM and SUM have proven track records, while ARV is showing itself as being capable of being there.

The last OCA FY result showed stagnant underlying earnings which includes falling earnings from the care segment. Is it still a bargain if OCA again bring to the table another year of the same earnings?

I do think that the care segment will again see a fall given the rise in wages on the sector, I'm sure the more aged care needs there are the more staff are required. The question is whether the gains in the new units can offset and bring it higher earnings. I'm optimistic it can, but I need to see it in action before I double down on my position.

[LAC]

Depends on the lens you're looking at. MET is under market speculation at a ridiculous price imo. RYM and SUM have proven track records, while ARV is showing itself as being capable of being there.

The last OCA FY result showed stagnant underlying earnings which includes falling earnings from the care segment. Is it still a bargain if OCA again bring to the table another year of the same earnings?

I do think that the care segment will again see a fall given the rise in wages on the sector, I'm sure the more aged care needs there are the more staff are required. The question is whether the gains in the new units can offset and bring it higher earnings. I'm optimistic it can, but I need to see it in action before I double down on my position.
Give this man a beer!

[Beagle]

Give this man a beer!

I second that. If OCA was such a tremendous opportunity then why aren't they the company being chased by three parties for takeover...

As the most recent newcomer to this sector based on last year's results OCA have a LOT to prove to the market before they earn investors trust and I think value investors comment hits the nail directly on the head.

The talk I hear indicates to me OCA have a LOT of work ahead of them refining the internal controls around costs with their systems and while its true to a certain extent a rising tide lifts all boats, not so much the ones with lots of leaks in them.

[BlackPeter]

I second that. If OCA was such a tremendous opportunity then why aren't they the company being chased by three parties for takeover...

As the most recent newcomer to this sector based on last year's results OCA have a LOT to prove to the market before they earn investors trust and I think value investors comment hits the nail directly on the head.

The talk I hear indicates to me OCA have a LOT of work ahead of them refining the internal controls around costs with their systems and while its true to a certain extent a rising tide lifts all boats, not so much the ones with lots of leaks in them.

Don't forget that nobody chased MET three months ago either. Have they been at that stage a much lesser company? I doubt it.

Market interest in any share is fickle and typically no indication for a companies performance or future share price hype. Just look at the last two years of MET or SUM SP fluctuations. I am sure OCA's time will come as well. If not in 2020, than in 2021.

Discl: hold all three (OCA, SUM, MET) - and at the moment quite happy with all of them :p;

[Beagle]

Fair enough BP but MET was a deep value play trading at around a 40% discount to NTA as little as 3 months ago whereas OCA is now trading at more than a 25% premium to last recorded NTA.

Does their track record justify the current premium ?...that's the $64,000 question. SUM have earned the respect of the market with a CAGR of 37% over the last 5 years and deserve a significant premium to NTA, (were trading at just a 10% premium to my estimated 31/12/19 NTA six months ago at $5.50), which was ridiculously low and why I topped up.

My view is OCA's management hasn't earned their current premium to NTA. I base my assessment on past performance, my knowledge of the culture of the company and industry talk of the lack of discipline with their internal control's. Yes the evolvement of the new part of their business model is promising, its just a shame that the dominant part of their current business model faces quite lacklustre and likely deteriorating prospects for profitability for the foreseeable future.

I am happy to follow my own nose for feeds in this sector, I'm very happy indeed with how its working :)

SUM a better buy than OCA at current prices in my opinion.

[Blue Skies]

Don't forget that nobody chased MET three months ago either. Have they been at that stage a much lesser company? I doubt it.

Market interest in any share is fickle and typically no indication for a companies performance or future share price hype. Just look at the last two years of MET or SUM SP fluctuations. I am sure OCA's time will come as well. If not in 2020, than in 2021.

Discl: hold all three (OCA, SUM, MET) - and at the moment quite happy with all of them :p;


So true.
I remember feeling v disappointed with my unloved SUM holding from about Aug/Sept 2018 for about a year, but look at it now.
I think it was Balance who said ' I'ld rather be a an hour early than a few minutes too late' - good advice, & am sure OCA will do well for anyone who's plays the long game (& hopefully not too long ha).

Disc hold both SUM & OCA

[Blue Skies]

[QUOTE=Beagle;783563]Fair enough BP but MET was a deep value play trading at around a 40% discount to NTA as little as 3 months ago whereas OCA is now trading at more than a 25% premium to last recorded NTA.

Does their track record justify the current premium ?...that's the $64,000 question. SUM have earned the respect of the market with a CAGR of 37% over the last 5 years and deserve a significant premium to NTA, (were trading at just a 10% premium to my estimated 31/12/19 NTA six months ago at $5.50), which was ridiculously low and why I topped up.





Hi Beagle could you just clarify as at first glance it seems you're comparing a historical OCA NTA with an estimated current SUM NTA?
SUM at $8.50 is trading at just over 80% of the last reported (not estimated current) 4.70 NTA, whereas OCA at $1.23 is trading at just over 24% of last reported .989 NTA.
So is SUM still a better but than OCA?

[Beagle]

SUM is a growth story, compound average growth rate in underlying earnings for the last 5 years = 37% per annum, easily the fastest growing of the retirement stocks on an earnings per shares basis over the last 5 years. My primary valuation methodology of SUM is its growth because its so high and so well proven over 8 years since they've been listed. NTA is very much secondary in my valuation considerations with SUM.

My Bull case for SUM is that really it deserves to be trading at a substantial PE premium to the median NZX50 median of about 20 as its actually N.Z. preeminent growth stock. I believe SUM should and more importantly has earned the trust of the market over a long period of time to be trading on 23-24 times estimated FY20 earnings which I have provisionally estimated at 62 cps. Value in my opinion by mid - late 2020 could be as high as $14. Upside potential is as much as 65% in 2020. (I know this seems overtly bullish but I am happy to follow my own nose of this one). I don't see anything like that potential with OCA in the short run.

OCA has some pretty serious issues and is really struggling to maintain the profitability of its care services, (the vast bulk of their current business model) against rampant human resource cost inflation. In my view its too early in the lifecycle of OCA to reliably predict its average growth rate so one is better to reference value using NTA. Macquarie's ~ 250m shares is a real overhang on OCA and SUM has no such overhang.

I estimate OCA's NTA and about $1.07 as at 31 December 2019. I wouldn't invest at anything more than a 10% premium to this but understand that others are taking a longer perspective and eventually the superior earnings capability of the occupation right agreement model will help overcome the care side of their business model which is well and truly dragging the chain.

[winner69]

SUM is a growth story, compound average growth rate in underlying earnings for the last 5 years = 37% per annum, easily the fastest growing of the retirement stocks on an earnings per shares basis over the last 5 years. My primary valuation methodology of SUM is its growth because its so high and so well proven over 8 years since they've been listed. NTA is very much secondary in my valuation considerations with SUM.

My Bull case for SUM is that really it deserves to be trading at a substantial PE premium to the median NZX50 median of about 20 as its actually N.Z. preeminent growth stock. I believe SUM should and more importantly has earned the trust of the market over a long period of time to be trading on 23-24 times estimated FY20 earnings which I have provisionally estimated at 62 cps. Value in my opinion by mid - late 2020 could be as high as $14. Upside potential is as much as 65% in 2020. (I know this seems overtly bullish but I am happy to follow my own nose of this one). I don't see anything like that potential with OCA in the short run.

OCA has some pretty serious issues and is really struggling to maintain the profitability of its care services, (the vast bulk of their current business model) against rampant human resource cost inflation. In my view its too early in the lifecycle of OCA to reliably predict its average growth rate so one is better to reference value using NTA. Macquarie's ~ 250m shares is a real overhang on OCA and SUM has no such overhang.

I estimate OCA's NTA and about $1.07 as at 31 December 2019. I wouldn't invest at anything more than a 10% premium to this but understand that others are taking a longer perspective and eventually the superior earnings capability of the occupation right agreement model will help overcome the care side of their business model which is well and truly dragging the chain.

Shareclarity has a value of $4.97 for SUM ...maybe current price a bit stretched

[Beagle]

Shareclarity has a value of $4.97 for SUM ...maybe current price a bit stretched

LOL - you know what I think of them. Their so called valuation of RYM is $9.61, (most recent share price $16.80) and OCA itself 92 cents ($1.23).
MET is $5.75 which is about to be taken over for more than $7 tomorrow.
Their so called research is worse than moaningstar and that's really saying something !

Very happy to back my own nose for finding a feed, it really works and I'm getting very overweight lol

[Dlownz]

Going by Tuesdays azx close I'm guessing we are in for a great rise today. Even with the lower offer on met than what others were expecting

[Davexl]

Beagle says: (I know this seems overtly bullish (re: SUM) but I am happy to follow my own nose of this one). I don't see anything like that potential with OCA in the short run.

Whatever the analysis Beagle, OCA up another 4.1% today, my largest NZ Shareholding - very pleased! Seems to be a major sentiment swing going on...

[Beagle]

Happy for you seeing as its so badly underperformed in 2019.

[Baa_Baa]

Happy for you seeing as its so badly underperformed in 2019.

"badly Underperformed in 2019"? It's still 2019 by my calendar and the share price is up 20% plus they paid out a nice unexpected dividend. I love this underperformance.

Disc, have SUM as well as OCA.

[winner69]

Beagle says: (I know this seems overtly bullish (re: SUM) but I am happy to follow my own nose of this one). I don't see anything like that potential with OCA in the short run.

Whatever the analysis Beagle, OCA up another 4.1% today, my largest NZ Shareholding - very pleased! Seems to be a major sentiment swing going on...

Well done Dave ....always best to go with your own gutometer (as Couts would say)

Probably heaps more gains to come.

[Beagle]

"badly Underperformed in 2019"? It's still 2019 by my calendar and the share price is up 20% plus they paid out a nice unexpected dividend. I love this underperformance.

Disc, have SUM as well as OCA.

To clarify.
Share price was $1.07 exactly a year ago today. When I made that post this morning I was referencing the closing price from the previous days trading of $1.23 so the overall gain at that point was 123/107 = 14.95% plus dividend yield of about 4%, total 18.95%. This against the NZX which according to the N.Z. Herald boxing day edition is up 31.6% year to date. Underperformance relative to the NZX50 is thus 12.65% before today's trading. Who knows though, the way this sector is performing it might be up, (inclusive of today's gains), by another 12.65% by year end to match the NZX50 ?

FYI - Gains to close of trading 24 December for the year (excluding dividends)
OCA 15%
MET 19%
SUM 32%
ARV 42%
RYM 53%

NZX50 inclusive of dividends 31.6%

[trader_jackson]

To clarify.
Share price was $1.07 exactly a year ago today. When I made that post this morning I was referencing the closing price from the previous days trading of $1.23 so the overall gain at that point was 123/107 = 14.95% plus dividend yield of about 4%, total 18.95%. This against the NZX which according to the N.Z. Herald boxing day edition is up 31.6% year to date. Underperformance relative to the NZX50 is thus 12.65% before today's trading. Who knows though, the way this sector is performing it might be up, (inclusive of today's gains), by another 12.65% by year end to match the NZX50 ?

FYI - Gains to close of trading 24 December for the year (excluding dividends)
OCA 15%
MET 19%
SUM 32%
ARV 42%
RYM 53%

NZX50 inclusive of dividends 31.6%

might have a new leader after today...

[winner69]

To clarify.
Share price was $1.07 exactly a year ago today. When I made that post this morning I was referencing the closing price from the previous days trading of $1.23 so the overall gain at that point was 123/107 = 14.95% plus dividend yield of about 4%, total 18.95%. This against the NZX which according to the N.Z. Herald boxing day edition is up 31.6% year to date. Underperformance relative to the NZX50 is thus 12.65% before today's trading. Who knows though, the way this sector is performing it might be up, (inclusive of today's gains), by another 12.65% by year end to match the NZX50 ?

FYI - Gains to close of trading 24 December for the year (excluding dividends)
OCA 15%
MET 19%
SUM 32%
ARV 42%
RYM 53%

NZX50 inclusive of dividends 31.6%

So RYM the real star ...a top performer eh

[macduffy]

Beagle says: (I know this seems overtly bullish (re: SUM) but I am happy to follow my own nose of this one). I don't see anything like that potential with OCA in the short run.

Whatever the analysis Beagle, OCA up another 4.1% today, my largest NZ Shareholding - very pleased! Seems to be a major sentiment swing going on...

Keep riding that trend, Dave! I am!

:cool:

[Beagle]

might have a new leader after today...

5 year view is what really counts eh mate :D

[Dlownz]

Beagles right on this one. I brought in on this a month ago with the gut feeling is was going to have a great recorrect up until around their results announment. I'm riding a great wave on this and MET. I'll look at selling Oceania and putting into SUM. Even with there latest climb oca has moved higher in the last month so it looks like a possible winner for me or worst case I end up with the same number of SUM shares. Its been a great couple of months with my only balls up buying sky just before there rugby announment and going up 20% only to see it slowly erode away. So jumped ship with only a small negative.

[couta1]

Only another 30c odd to get this thing in tune with where it should be on the Couta ratio, however that's assuming everything is humming along on the correct growth projectory and expenses are under control which I'm unconvinced of at this point in time, the result is going to have to be pretty good to maintain this price level and exceptional to exceed it, meanwhile Macca must be performing like a circus elephant on steroids seeing this rise.

[Davexl]

Keep riding that trend, Dave! I am!

:cool:

I'm with you so far macduffy after almost selling at $1.18, next check-point prior to Jan 24 th, but just might put this in the bottom draw and stop chasing dividends so much. Got badly burned on one stock this year, turned out to be a dividend trap amongst other things (MPG, say no more), so have a bit of capital to make up next year. Wish I had had Beagles good counsel back then also and done more DYOR but having a great team of different opinions and analysis is very encouraging. Cheers to everyone:)

[Beagle]

Only another 30c odd to get this thing in tune with where it should be on the Couta ratio, however that's assuming everything is humming along on the correct growth projectory and expenses are under control which I'm unconvinced of at this point in time, the result is going to have to be pretty good to maintain this price level and exceptional to exceed it, meanwhile Macca must be performing like a circus elephant on steroids seeing this rise.

:lol: :lol: Speaking of major shareholders Maverick must be lying on a beach somewhere today oblivious to the fact that he's made squillions. He's gone super hard on these ones and I am really happy for him and other holders.

The great thing about the MET takeover is the money and love gets spread over the entire sector and everyone's a WINNER :t_up:

[Ggcc]

:lol: :lol: Speaking of major shareholders Maverick must be lying on a beach somewhere today oblivious to the fact that he's made squillions. He's gone super hard on these ones and I am really happy for him and other holders.
As Trader Jackson has gone hard on ARV and is doing extremely well, in fact better than most!!! Good on us all for doing well and glad I never sold down in large amounts on the way up. I sold a few thousand for a new business venture, but I still have squillions left haha.

[Snow Leopard]

$1.31, only slightly under fair value.

[Blue Skies]

Excellent to see OCA in Herald brokers Top 5 picks for 2020.

While no guarantee, its always been reassuring to see the directors pouring lots of their own money into the shares.
I sleep better knowing their interests align directly with shareholders interests.

[Snow Leopard]

Well OCA is the next SUM now that the best of SUM is behind it and only the rear-view mirror crew are *still* making noise about it.

But seriously I think it will be an interesting year ahead :confused:.

Disc: Own a few, DYOR, happy new year & Gong Xi Fa Cai.

[winner69]

As they say CAN’T HAVE ENOUGH OCA

[penn]

Well OCA is the next SUM now that the best of SUM is behind it and only the rear-view mirror crew are *still* making noise about it.

But seriously I think it will be an interesting year ahead :confused:

Disc: Own a few, DYOR, happy new year & Gong Xi Fa Cai.

Gong Xi Fa Cai To you PT! and everyone else here.

[couta1]

The time to buy OCA if you dont already have a stash at under $1.10 is after the result in a few weeks, let's see how they are managing those expenses first, if profits are up substantially but expenses have increased to match then what is it currently worth?

[Beagle]

The time to buy OCA if you dont already have a stash at under $1.10 is after the result in a few weeks, let's see how they are managing those expenses first, if profits are up substantially but expenses have increased to match then what is it currently worth?

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/329805 Agree with you on this one Coutts. Shareholders have an expectation that Earl and his team will deliver a much better growth rate than last year's pathetic 5.3% interim growth result which Earl Gasparich described as a "strong result". I remember thinking at the time what's "strong" about it ? Very poorly chosen adjective in my opinion.

Rather comically, and in stark contrast, director Liz Coutts contradicts Earl later in the same press release and describes the result as "steady" and the dividend stayed the same and reflected the steady earnings

On behalf of the Board, Oceania Chair Liz Coutts confirmed that an interim dividend of 2.1 cents per share (not imputed) would be paid to shareholders on 18 February 2019. This dividend reflects Oceania’s steady earnings and cash flow and is in line with the Board policy.

Shareholders holding at this price will be hoping this year's interim result really will be strong.

Macca's must be licking their chops in anticipation of a huge share placement in 2020.

[stoploss]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/329805 Agree with you on this one Coutts. Shareholders have an expectation that Earl and his team will deliver a much better growth rate than last year's pathetic 5.3% interim growth result which Earl Gasparich described as a "strong result". I remember thinking at the time what's "strong" about it ? Very poorly chosen adjective in my opinion.

Shareholders holding at this price will be hoping this year's interim result really will be strong. Macca's must be licking their chops in anticipation of a huge share placement in 2020.

With the current bullish sentiment in the sector I can see Macq getting lifted out of their stake as opposed to having to make a placement at a discount .

[Beagle]

With the current bullish sentiment in the sector I can see Macq getting lifted out of their stake as opposed to having to make a placement at a discount .

My understanding under the takeovers code is that anyone bidding for more than 20% is obliged to bid for the whole company. MET is struggling to get current NTA, the chances of a takeover bid for OCA at the current 30% premium to NTA look pretty slim to me. I am genuinely worried about a takeover of SUM though with their remarkable track record of growth. That's one company I definitely don't want to get acquired.

Best result I can dream of for Monday is a SUM takeover of MET ! SUMMET health care has a great ring to it :)

[Davexl]

OCA up nicely @ $1.37 (5.4%), $1.39 high point. Nice going you good thing...!

[hogie]

OCA up nicely @ $1.37 (5.4%), $1.39 high point. Nice going you good thing...!

Ahhh I knew there was a reason I decided to invest quite heavily into this one ... I was beginning to feel a bit depressed ...

[couta1]

Ahhh I knew there was a reason I decided to invest quite heavily into this one ... I was beginning to feel a bit depressed ... Really cheer yourself up by taking some profit at the current irrational price level.

[Davexl]

Really cheer yourself up by taking some profit at the current irrational price level.

Sounds like you're keen to buy a block eh couta?

[couta1]

Sounds like you're keen to buy a block eh couta? I wouldn't touch it with a barge pole at current level until I see the result.

[Davexl]

I wouldn't touch it with a barge pull at current level until I see the result.

Think I might sell the rumour (of a good result) and buy the fact (maybe it isn't one) - later...

[Beagle]

I wouldn't touch it with a barge pole at current level until I see the result.

Whatever the result is Earl will call it "strong" lol

[couta1]

Whatever the result is Earl will call it "strong" lol Yep but the question is whether its $1.36 strong or of $1.10 kinda strength, punters need to decide for themselves what kinda cup of tea they will be served up.

[Davexl]

Yep but the question is whether its $1.36 strong or of $1.10 kinda strength, punters need to decide for themselves what kinda cup of tea they will be served up.

I'm learning to rebalance from living of just dividends to a better mix of div and capital gains this next year. The div yield @ 3.46% net compares OK for me in this sector, and we FINALLY have some capital gain...

[BlackPeter]

Yep but the question is whether its $1.36 strong or of $1.10 kinda strength, punters need to decide for themselves what kinda cup of tea they will be served up.

Hmm - didn't the Couta theorem state that 10 OCA's are equivalent to one RYM? Given that Ryman trades at the moment at $16,71, then OCA is in the mid 130' ies still cheap as chips. Should be in the 160'ies.

Or - don't you trust your theorem anymore :p ???

[couta1]

Hmm - didn't the Couta theorem state that 10 OCA's are equivalent to one RYM? Given that Ryman trades at the moment at $16,71, then OCA is in the mid 130' ies still cheap as chips. Should be in the 160'ies.

Or - don't you trust your theorem anymore :p ??? Yes exactly it should be in the $1.60ies, ask yourself why it's not? Remember a theorum only operates correctly if all the parameters are correct.

[penn]

Really cheer yourself up by taking some profit at the current irrational price level.


You keep giving this financial advice, and If we had acted the first time you said it, would have missed $100's in gains. Begining to look like Couta is the party 'hoovering them up, and wants to keep the sellers coming.

[couta1]

You keep giving this financial advice, and If we had acted the first time you said it, would have missed $100's in gains. Begining to look like Couta is the party 'hoovering them up, and wants to keep the sellers coming. Not financial advice, just encouragement from my personal learning experiences and remember all profit is profit. PS-You dont have to sell everything at once so laddering your sale still produces a satisfactory result.

[macduffy]

Yes exactly it should be in the $1.60ies, ask yourself why it's not? Remember a theorum only operates correctly if all the parameters are correct.

Price relativity theories only work if all factors, particularly management, remain constant. Not a good enough basis for investing, for me.

[Davexl]

Price relativity theories only work if all factors, particularly management, remain constant. Not a good enough basis for investing, for me.

I like the sound of this theorum, it would be interesting to go back thru the experimental data to verify. In the $1.60's sounds very nice to me...

[Baa_Baa]

I like the sound of this theorum, it would be interesting to go back thru the experimental data to verify. In the $1.60's sounds very nice to me...

OCA % of RYM - Weekly Closing Price Data
10924

[Bjauck]

OCA % of RYM - Weekly Closing Price Data
10924

Nice chart. So the Couta1 RYM/SUM is a more reliable long term 2:1?

[Baa_Baa]

Nice chart. So the Couta1 RYM/SUM is a more reliable long term 2:1?

No it's not imo. Depending on what you mean "reliable" for, it's more a curiosity than a buy/hold/sell indicator.

[winner69]

No it's not imo. Depending on what you mean "reliable" for, it's more a curiosity than a buy/hold/sell indicator.


Has always been a great time buy SUM when share price <40% of RYM

Traders would have sold when it reached 60% ....that’s a really healthy trade

Reversion to the mean is a powerful thing ...almost a law of nature

One could say OCA is reverting to the mean at the moment ..mean just under the 10% mark ...even better reversions overshoot so that’s good news for OCA punters. (Rider is not much history for the OCA RYM relationship.)

[couta1]

Has always been a great time buy SUM when share price <40% of RYM

Traders would have sold when it reached 60% ....that’s a really healthy trade

Reversion to the mean is a powerful thing ...almost a law of nature

One could say OCA is reverting to the mean at the moment ..mean just under the 10% mark ...even better reversions overshoot so that’s good news for OCA punters. (Rider is not much history for the OCA RYM relationship.) Yep you dont mess with mathematical laws that have stood the test of time aye winner, Beagle knows this to be true, that's why he bought SUM when it was near that 40% mark. PS-As I have said already OCA will follow the mean more consistently once it gets its s*** sorted out.

[Baa_Baa]

Has always been a great time buy SUM when share price <40% of RYM

Traders would have sold when it reached 60% ....that’s a really healthy trade

If you plot the Share Price on one axis and the Relative % to RYM on the other axis, I think you'll find it a lot less than obvious indications of a good time to buy or sell the share. I posted that SUM SP:RYM % chart on the SUM thread a couple of weeks back, it doesn't imo give quite the trading clarity that you suggest it does.

[Beagle]

Yep you dont mess with mathematical laws that have stood the test of time aye winner, Beagle knows this to be true, that's why he bought SUM when it was near that 40% mark. PS-As I have said already OCA will follow the mean more consistently once it gets its s*** sorted out.

I buy on really thorough fundamental analysis, technical analysis and value and my confidence in the management and the board of companies and last but not least by any means, I also rely on my sixth sense of my Beagle nose for a feed. Your relativity theory doesn't come into it mate.

[RTM]

Really cheer yourself up by taking some profit at the current irrational price level.

Done.
~50% gone at 136. Nice profit on buy of 100.
Will consider buying back should they drop to < 110. Other than that...have some money looking for a new home.
Looking forward to the Jan result with interest.
Sure beats the dividend tho while I wait.

[couta1]

Done.
~50% gone at 136. Nice profit on buy of 100.
Will consider buying back should they drop to < 110. Other than that...have some money looking for a new home.
Looking forward to the Jan result with interest.
Sure beats the dividend tho while I wait. Good for you and well done.

[Snow Leopard]

So apart from the Smart People such as TJ, Mav & I, who else is keeping a discerning eye on this?

PS: peat = Smart People too.

[peat]

keeping an eye of course however did sell out a recently acquired parcel at 1.38 for a quick 32c.
I'm not sure when to buy this back now haha, the joy of trading but holding is still 10% of equities, so no tearing rush or tears either way.

[Beagle]

Good for you and well done.

Its going to be very interesting to see how well or badly Earl and his team controls costs in the forthcoming result.
I think their result will be north of the PCP but not as much as Mav is hoping for.

[dreamcatcher]

Sold half my holding a few weeks back balance now under 70c .......so happy either way SP goes :p :t_up:

[Beagle]

Suppose they get somewhere close to what Mav is hoping for and the result comes in at ~ $27m and suppose second half is $35m giving $62m underlying profit for the year, that's about 10 cps. Share price of $1.30 suggests forward PE is 13 which seems okay to me "provided they can hit those numbers".

[trader_jackson]

Oceania has mentioned how their development margin is about 30% in Auckland... along with seeing how this margins continues to track (and among several other things) it will be interesting to see how 2 key Auckland developments (also both higher priced complexes) are going:

I will be interested in how sales are going at The Sands (64 apartments and 44 care - completed May 19)
It seemed to me this morning there were at least several units still not occupied... given it has been several months since the facility re-opened and the previous talk about "strong demand", it would be (for me) a bit of a disappointment to still see, say, over a quarter of them not yet settled

Will also be interesting to see how Meadowbank stage 4 (64 apartments and 44 care - completed May 19) sales are going, and stage 5 (26 apartments - due this FY20) is progressing

[winner69]

Oceania has mentioned how their development margin is about 30% in Auckland... along with seeing how this margins continues to track (and among several other things) it will be interesting to see how 2 key Auckland developments (also both higher priced complexes) are going:

I will be interested in how sales are going at The Sands (64 apartments and 44 care - completed May 19)
It seemed to me this morning there were at least several units still not occupied... given it has been several months since the facility re-opened and the previous talk about "strong demand", it would be (for me) a bit of a disappointment to still see, say, over a quarter of them not yet settled

Will also be interesting to see how Meadowbank stage 4 (64 apartments and 44 care - completed May 19) sales are going, and stage 5 (26 apartments - due this FY20) is progressing

Even if not ‘sold’ in time for the half year finances they will be sold sometime to realise that huge development margin.

[Beagle]

Even if not ‘sold’ in time for the half year finances they will be sold sometime to realise that huge development margin.

Indeed they will and they should enjoy it while it lasts. One of the interesting differences between the business model OCA uses v the others is most construction work is contracted to outside parties. I am sure they would have got a profitable fixed price construction quote for projects committed a couple of years back but going forward from here ?

By using external builders their model is more exposed than the likes of RYM who do almost everything in house.

I also think they have a LOT of work to do with improving their internal control systems regarding cost control.

I remain convinced the massive Macquarie stock overhang is also a material factor going forward, until it isn't.

Happy to keep watching from the sidelines for now but redeployment of MET takeover funds looms as something to ponder in the not too distant future.
__________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ ______________________________

Meanwhile over at RYM based on the mid point of their official forecast of ($250m-$265m underlying) $257.5m / 500m shares = 51.5 cps and at $16.30 this places them on a forward PE of 31.7 when they grew underlying earnings at 11.5% last year and forecast at 13.4% this year = average growth rate of just 12.5%. PEG ratio is this 31.7 / 12.5 = 2.5 which makes them look very expensive, (arguably perhaps the most expensive they have ever been relative to their growth rate).

Then there's ARV with its single digit average growth rate trading on a forward PE in the very late teens. Hmmmmmm

Then there's MET where they struggling to get even current NTA under a takeover because of their track record, (which actually isn't that bad with average underlying growth of 15% in the last 5 years)

Then there's SUM with an average growth rate of about 35% since it listed trading on a forward 2020 PE of only about 14.

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm Two stocks stand out as compelling value, one of which is under a takeover offer. Is SUM other one next ?

[winner69]

Even if the completed units are not ‘sold’ they will still be fully valued in the accounts and show in the real profits number.

[Beagle]

Their accounts are so complicated there is a compelling temptation to simply look at the NTA change and add any dividends paid during the period. That would save me a ton of work wouldn't it Winner.

[winner69]

Their accounts are so complicated there is a compelling temptation to simply look at the NTA change and add any dividends paid during the period. That would save me a ton of work wouldn't it Winner.

Probably a good approach seeing as they tend to revert to ‘Comprehensive Income’ when things don’t look too good at the NPAT level

But then again that will confuse those who just want to look at ‘Continuing Operations’

[winner69]

Their accounts are so complicated there is a compelling temptation to simply look at the NTA change and add any dividends paid during the period. That would save me a ton of work wouldn't it Winner.

Maybe just look at NTA .....if it’s heading in the right direction there’s hope

FY18 it was up 15% and FY19 up 13% as a guide

[Beagle]

Probably a good approach seeing as they tend to revert to ‘Comprehensive Income’ when things don’t look too good at the NPAT level

But then again that will confuse those who just want to look at ‘Continuing Operations’

Yeap, they were dead keen to highlight "comprehensive income" last year when interestingly, no other company in the sector took that approach. I suppose they think they're a special case ?

[Beagle]

Comprehensive Income is the profit measure that flows most directly through to NTA changes and has some merit as a yard stick for retirement village operators, especially for Oceania during this chrysalis stage of their life cycle. It reflects valuation increases in their $442 m of PPE assets which is not captured by other profit measures. The downside being that it does let them off the hook a bit in terms of sales performance.

OCA has tremendous potential to create value and like SUM and RYM is a long term hold for me. Surely we will see strong sales at the Sands in this result. If the sales and marketing team can't sell that location on the beach and in the village in a great North Shore suburb then they should think about alternative career paths.

You can't have it both ways. If we start looking at comprehensive IFRS income for the other companies in this sector we again have one that stands out as the cheapest, SUM with over $1 per share. RYM again look over priced on that metric.

Regarding the Sands and its salability, agreed its a fabulous location but like all large developments close to the water there are the units with lovely sea views and those without. Would you go on a cruise ship and book an inside cabin just because its cheap ?

[Beagle]

How deep to dive into this can of worms on a Sunday...not very is the short answer. Some background for others who won't have the same level of understanding you obviously do.

At their core these are property companies, although it could be argued a lot of OCA's operational profit comes from care.
International financial reporting standards (IFRS) require all property companies to include fair value gains on all property in their financial results for the year.
Each year all the companies in this sector obtain valuations of their assets to determine the change in net asset backing and this is included in IFRS or comprehensive earnings.

It is a general accepted accounting principle (GAAP) that a profit is not such until its realised. Obviously the revaluation of units is not realised, (only those units actually resold during that year or developed and sold are realised and form part of underlying earnings) and for common area buildings like recreation or community areas it will never be realised, unless the village as whole is sold outright.

My view is that RYM started this whole thing and set the standard of underlying earnings being the benchmark in this sector. The main principle of underlying earnings is that they're the earnings realised during the year and in my view this gives the most accurate picture of progress made during the year as its encapsulates the realised or real profit made.

For sure IFRS profit is also important in as much as it gives a view of forward earnings, much of the IFRS valuation gains will be realised at some point in the future and the difference is known as embedded value and often expressed as embedded value per unit.

The problem with using IFRS earnings is, not only does this recognise earnings that are not actually earned yet, you also get wild swings in earnings from one year to another. Another problem is it picks up the increase in the value of common areas and buildings that it is highly likely will never be realised.

This is best illustrated by looking at MET's earnings for 2018 and 2019.
In 2018 their IFRS profit was $125.1m and underlying profit $87.5m
In 2019 their IFRS profit was just $39.2m (Auckland property declined) but underlying earnings were $90.5m. They had embedded value of a whopping $288,000 per unit.

I maintain it is grossly inaccurate to say the entire actual earnings of MET for the 2019 year were just $39.2m when it is plain that they actually earned and realised far more than this during the year. Likewise with 2018 IFRS profit, claiming they has earnings for that year of $125.1m gives a disingenuous view of their real earnings.

The low IFRS profit is probably something that's going to unduly influence the forthcoming appraisal report of the company when I would argue it shouldn't given the huge embedded value and the fact that the Auckland market is rebounding fairly well at present.

My opinion is underlying profit is the best measure we have but I pay close attention to embedded value per unit gains each year as this gives a valuable guide to future realisable profit from resales.

In my opinion, OCA needs to conform its model to underlying profit as the primary measure of its profitability if it wants to find wide acceptance and support within the investment community.

My previous comment about NTA difference was tongue in cheek and follows on from other comments I have made previously about how OCA's financials are a very difficult read even for accountants and experienced professional investors like myself.

[Snow Leopard]

Maybe, just maybe, it is not the last profit number that is important.

Nor the so called NTA.

Think lateral like a crab :confused:

[Beagle]

Market is always forward looking for sure but embedded value per unit and the companies track record of development and their margin are useful guides to forward profitability as is the length of their track record. Proven thoroughbred or promising filly that might fall at the next hurdle, lay your money down and place your bets...

[Maverick]

That was a very impressive post back there Beagle explaining the accounting concepts to those uninitiated with retirement reporting. I'm sure those that are prepared to put in the effort of understanding these companies will benefit a lot from it.

At the risk of muddying things further, I have a different concept of " embedded value" as I think you do.

I understand that you are saying EV is basically "capital gains".(ie. future profits)
My view of EV is the sum of the "remaining portions of the DMF contracts" (also future profits, to me this also supports why they report as individual EV's per unit).

Wikipedia says EV is essentially future profits not relised yet but are coming and is a contrived concept made initially to measure insurance policies, technically we both could be right. ..I think I am righter though.(" that's pretty arrogant considering the company I'm in"- Topgun quote by the way)

Anyhow, as you have said, how deep does one bother to go on a Sunday......beer time mate.

[Beagle]

"You can be my wingman anytime mate" :)

[winner69]

Excellent synopsis of different profit measures Beagle. Although you may have to hand your bean counters badge in if you are not subscribing to the official IFRS bean counting view of the world.
:)

Beagle is a Accountonomist so entitled to use what any measure that he deems appropriate

[Maverick]

Maverick,

"That was some of the best flying I've seen to date - right up to the part where you got killed."

Love your work and feel we are on the same page on OCA. However, there is no connection between Embedded Value and DMF. DMF income will be recognised in both Underlying profit and IFRS profit/Comprehensive Income in the year it is earned (every year in accordance with the contract for each individual ORA). Embedded Value is the difference between valuation and the amount the current resident paid for the ORA (i.e. it is all capital gain not DMF).

Hey hey Mogul welcome to the forum,
I accept capital gains is part of embedded value but The way I read it, unrealised DMF is also almost half of EV . The way I see it both you , Beagle and myself are all partially right.

Check out this link(OCA FY 19 report)
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/338084/304090.pdf
then go to page 29(bottom right corner )

It states,
"embedded value includes :
-92.3m of DMF cash flows to be realised and
-115.6m of resale gain"

I know this post is will bore the socks of any readers but if I'm still wrong I'm willing to hear it.

EV doesnt actually mean that much too me as part of my analaysis of OCA ( as long as its increasing) but I may as well get it straightened out for good learning.

[winner69]

Now we all know about Underlying Earnings, Comprehensive Income, NTA and Embedded Value we must be a lot wiser

So us OCA a good investment

I like the thing NAV (NEt ADJUSTED VALUE) that Oceania use .....was $1.14 per share las

[Beagle]

Hi Maverick,

Thanks. Looking further into this I think you make a good point.

As context, the concept of Embedded Value is not relevant to IFRS Reported profit or to Comprehensive Income where the Management Fee is booked as profit on a straight line basis over the relevant or expected term of the ORA. I am pretty sure I have this part right, but welcome any feedback if you see it differently. The balance sheet also has assets at market valuation which feeds directly into quoted NTA's.

However, Embedded Value is relevant to the calculation of "Underlying profit" where capital gains and also DMF fees it seems, do not get booked as profit until the ORA terminates and a new ORA is sold for the unit. As per the chart you shared, the Embedded Value represents the difference between the carrying value of the assets at market value (as per balance sheet) and the amount owed to residents under the terms of the ORA. Part of this is estimated capital gain and part of it is DMF as you say. Thanks for pointing this out.

Very good discussion guys. My view is the conceptual framework of EV has always been tied to the unrealised difference between the current valuation of units and the obligation to the holders of the licence to occupy. I haven't done the books of a retirement company but I would imagine as the ORA progresses the obligation to the residents gradually diminishes in accordance with the ORA terms, e.g. in OCA's case 10% per annum and as the capital value (hopefully) increases every year the embedded value per unit rises quite quickly.

Its quite probable that we are all right, (dare I suggest at this time of year the three wise men) :) as the bulk of OCA's model is still care for residents outside of the standard retirement village ORA agreement model. Given this, there is an argument that as the cost of provision of care services increases each year, the contractually agreed increased portion represents a form of embedded value, whereas the straight line component of care services does not.

Confession time - My sense is I probably haven't tried hard enough to wrap my head around the nuances of OCA's accounts in the past, in terms of the old / new model and there probably is some argument that capital gains on old model care service buildings and the capital gains thereon should be encapsulated into the traditional model of retirement villages, or at least considered in the context of same in terms of future possible profitability to the extent that the company plans to convert them over to ORA care suites, (at least from the perspective of trying to make some attempt to compare underlying earnings between the various sector players). Perhaps between us we should give this a very fulsome analysis and thorough examination with the forthcoming report.

[Beagle]

Now we all know about Underlying Earnings, Comprehensive Income, NTA and Embedded Value we must be a lot wiser

So us OCA a good investment

I like the thing NAV (NEt ADJUSTED VALUE) that Oceania use .....was $1.14 per share las

Yes, we can use there latest musings on this as a starting point to try and understand the nuances of their forthcoming accounts. I might leave it till then, don't want another headache yet...

[Beagle]

Beagle is a Accountonomist so entitled to use what any measure that he deems appropriate

I did a web search on that term and it only comes up as a word you made up on share trader lol.
Just like a Beagle mate, I just like foraging and hunting for food. Forage a lovely word (Can't forage any more on SUM, right up to my 10% self imposed limit so with pending release of MET funds I am highly motivated to seek food elsewhere), even motivated enough to forage right through OCA's forthcoming financials to the nth degree :) How's that for a motivated dog !

forage
[ˈfɒrɪdʒ]

VERB
foraging (present participle)
(of a person or animal) search widely for food or provisions.
"the birds forage for aquatic invertebrates, insects, and seeds"
synonyms:
search · hunt · rummage (around) · scrabble · grub · root about · root around · scavenge · fish about · fish around · rake around · feel around · grope around · [more]
obtain (food or provisions) by searching.
"a girl foraging grass for oxen"
search (a place) so as to obtain food.
"units that were foraging a particular area"
synonyms:
hunt · hunt around · search · look about · look round · look around · cast about · cast round · cast around · rummage (about) · rummage (round) · [more]
archaic
supply with food.

[winner69]

Oceania need to get more non-English names for their villages

But maybe the current name reflects their target demographics

[winner69]

I did a web search on that term and it only comes up as a word you made up on share trader lol.
)

It’ll be in common use one day

[percy]

It’ll be in common use one day

I concur.
And to think we heard it here first.?

[Beagle]

Forthcoming entry in Wikipedia and Oxford English dictionary
Accountonomist - An accountant who takes a dogged approach to analysing financial information :)

[Snoopy]

Yes, we can use there latest musings on this as a starting point to try and understand the nuances of their forthcoming accounts. I might leave it till then, don't want another headache yet...


Beagle ticked me off in another thread about not understanding the retirement sector. I take my hat off to Beagle, Maverick, Mogul, Winner and all the others who have contributed on this thread in particular and others. Old retirement models morphing into new retirement models? Care revenue integrating with occupation rights? Declared profit and underlying profit? No wonder some of you get headaches! If there is a more difficult sector in the market to understand I don't know what it is (perhaps insurance?).

I took note of Warren Buffett in the 2000 era tech bubble when he was criticized for not riding that wave.

"I don't invest in things that I do not understand" was his response.

Since then I have never worried about 'missing out' and have stuck to investing in areas more amenable to my analysis skills. I haven't invested in the retirement sector to date. But the more I read these threads the more I want to, yet the less qualified I feel to do so! Nevertheless I feel I have benefitted from all of your efforts in educational terms at least. One day....

SNOOPY

PS Keep it up

[Beagle]

You cannot find a harder one to understand than OCA, that much is absolutely cast iron guaranteed, Snoopy. Start with SUM, considerably easier to understand and quite possibly a more profitable exercise for you. The barking was pretty intense on SUM mid year at ~ $5.50 and later in 2019 with MET at ~ $4.50. You don't always have to be the lead Beagle on the hunt mate :)

[winner69]

So January 24th going to big day

Meant to be half year results but I wonder if there will be any other big announcements (not related to the result)

[winner69]

Does Earl Gasparich have charisma

Asking for a friend ......as he feels it has some bearing on the value of Oceania

[percy]

Does Earl Gasparich have charisma

Asking for a friend ......as he feels it has some bearing on the value of Oceania

Certainly does.
And a very approachable and easy to talk to person,who gives clear straight answers to your questions.
In the Mainfreight Don Baird mold.

[Beagle]

Does Earl Gasparich have charisma

Asking for a friend ......as he feels it has some bearing on the value of Oceania

I think he does and he's certainly a very good presenter. All I spoke too at the N.Z. shareholders association after his presentation there were impressed with him, as was I.
His focus is on providing the very best standards of care for residents...which is fabulous. Julian Cook has a harder commercial edge to him that as a shareholder I strongly prefer.

[Snow Leopard]

Certainly does.
And a very approachable and easy to talk to person,who gives clear straight answers to your questions.
In the Mainfreight Don Baird mold.

No. They threw the mold away after making the Don.

[Blue Skies]

Julian Cook has a harder commercial edge to him that as a shareholder I strongly prefer.


Hmm..what like the Boeing CEO! lol

[Brain]

Certainly does.
And a very approachable and easy to talk to person,who gives clear straight answers to your questions.
In the Mainfreight Don Baird mold.

The future is what is important and that is determined by the demand for the product or service and the ability of the directors and management. The future demand appears to be almost certain but the jury is still out on the ability side. Straight talking is a good indication. Charisma not so important. Charisma can hide a heap of incompetence and often does.

[winner69]

The future is what is important and that is determined by the demand for the product or service and the ability of the directors and management. The future demand appears to be almost certain but the jury is still out on the ability side. Straight talking is a good indication. Charisma not so important. Charisma can hide a heap of incompetence and often does.

My friend had just read a paper (god bless his soul) that concluded ‘Our findings suggest that more extraverted CEOs may actually be less effective at managing risk and creating value than their more introverted counterparts.’

Spose a lot depends on how one defines extraverts and introverts but a Earl v Julian study could be interesting.

[Brain]

I always found that interviewing people for engineering and factory production positions was difficult because the people that could talk well and present themselves well were often relying on those skills to get them through life and the important skills ie the skills we were looking for were often lacking. A friend of mine in Human Resources for an international company said that her experience in hiring people was that no matter how hard she tried it really amounted to the toss of a dice.

[percy]

Two people who have influenced me, have both had the ability to explain very complex things in very simple terms.
One was co-founder of Jade, the other was CEO of NZIERinc.
I think very successful CEOs,Don Baird of Mainfreight,Mark Waller at Ebos,and others,have the same abilities.Know the direction their business should go,and get all of their staff onboard and go for it."Ready,Fire,Aim".

[Brain]

Two people who have influenced me, have both had the ability to explain very complex things in very simple terms.
One was co-founder of Jade, the other was CEO of NZIERinc.
I think very successful CEOs,Don Baird of Mainfreight,Mark Waller at Ebos,and others,have the same abilities.Know the direction their business should go,and get all of their staff onboard and go for it."Ready,Fire,Aim".

Yes if you can explain complex things in simple terms you really know your stuff.

[Blue Skies]

One of the compelling reasons I liked (for investment) about OCA, was the obvious pride any of the OCA staff I've had contact with have in their company, the standard of care, awards etc.
Am sure they can't all be like this but the staff I've talked to at a couple of locations have a real sense of ownership & pride in their company & with that comes a dedication which can't be bought. They will go the extra mile even after their shift may have finished or 'it's someone else's job to do that'.
I haven't esp noticed the same with other companies in this sector though expect RYM would be similar.
Looking to the future, people skills are more important than ever. 'Everything' else will be done by algorithms & AI.
Combine a well run company with the ability of visionary charismatic CEO to inspire & take people above & beyond the mediocre & to give them a real sense of making a difference is a winning formula in my book.

[percy]

You cannot find a harder one to understand than OCA, that much is absolutely cast iron guaranteed, Snoopy. Start with SUM, considerably easier to understand and quite possibly a more profitable exercise for you. The barking was pretty intense on SUM mid year at ~ $5.50 and later in 2019 with MET at ~ $4.50. You don't always have to be the lead Beagle on the hunt mate :)

Posters may find www.aaml.co.nz December newsletter interesting where they compare RYM's and SUM's future projections,and their comments on MET.

[fish]

One of the compelling reasons I liked (for investment) about OCA, was the obvious pride any of the OCA staff I've had contact with have in their company, the standard of care, awards etc.
Am sure they can't all be like this but the staff I've talked to at a couple of locations have a real sense of ownership & pride in their company & with that comes a dedication which can't be bought. They will go the extra mile even after their shift may have finished or 'it's someone else's job to do that'.
I haven't esp noticed the same with other companies in this sector though expect RYM would be similar.
Looking to the future, people skills are more important than ever. 'Everything' else will be done by algorithms & AI.
Combine a well run company with the ability of visionary charismatic CEO to inspire & take people above & beyond the mediocre & to give them a real sense of making a difference is a winning formula in my book.

You are so right .
Residents do so much better with caring staff .
Caring staff will be attracted to a caring company

[Beagle]

Posters may find www.aaml.co.nz December newsletter interesting where they compare RYM's and SUM's future projections,and their comments on MET.

Thanks Percy. Kingfish also own less by value of RYM than SUM despite the former having a market cap of several time's the latter.
Investors are paying a PEG ratio of 2.5 for RYM which is far too rich for me.

[trader_jackson]

You are so right .
Residents do so much better with caring staff .
Caring staff will be attracted to a caring company

You must have ARV shares then? They have better staff engagement on almost every comparison than OCA...
And nowhere near as many bigwigs as OCA has... management of ARV far more 'connected' to those on the ground than those at OCA they say

I really have got to stop bringing ARV into everything... they are just so good in many areas these days it is so hard to ignore... yet sharetrader does an excellent job of doing just that... OCA has 4x more views and replies, yet been listed for half the time ARV has, and produced (arguably) worse results and less of that famed 'track record' stuff

[Davexl]

You must have ARV shares then? They have better staff engagement on almost every comparison than OCA...
And nowhere near as many bigwigs as OCA has... management of ARV far more 'connected' to those on the ground than those at OCA they say

I really have got to stop bringing ARV into everything... they are just so good in many areas these days it is so hard to ignore... yet sharetrader does an excellent job of doing just that... OCA has 4x more views and replies, yet been listed for half the time ARV has, and produced (arguably) worse results and less of that famed 'track record' stuff

What's your evidence for these claims TJ? I own OCA and SUM and would like to know more about ARV.

[winner69]

What's your evidence for these claims TJ? I own OCA and SUM and would like to know more about ARV.

Dave - just read Arvida shareholder presentations and Annual Reports and you’ll see what tj is getting at

[trader_jackson]

What's your evidence for these claims TJ? I own OCA and SUM and would like to know more about ARV.

I'll let you find it in the annual report as ultimately there is alot of talk on both, but here is some cold hard numbers for a direct comparison for ya:

Net promoter scores for FY19:
ARV: 58: Village residents (up from 52 FY18), 51: Care residents (no change)
OCA: 56: Village residents (up from 43 in FY18), 32: Care residents (down from 33 in FY18)

Staff engagement for FY19:
ARV: 78%
OCA: 61%

Hence when you were talking about standard of care etc (all very important things I too have talked about) I thought you would certainly have ARV shares given they are actually suprioer to OCA in alot (possibly all?) areas, they just get on and do it and don't bother having an interview ("Q&A") at a coffee shop with the guy at the top.

[Davexl]

I'll let you find it in the annual report as ultimately there is alot of talk on both, but here is some cold hard numbers for a direct comparison for ya:

Net promoter scores for FY19:
ARV: 58: Village residents (up from 52 FY18), 51: Care residents (no change)
OCA: 56: Village residents (up from 43 in FY18), 32: Care residents (down from 33 in FY18)

Staff engagement for FY19:
ARV: 78%
OCA: 61%

Hence when you were talking about standard of care etc (all very important things I too have talked about) I thought you would certainly have ARV shares given the huge difference in NPS score for their care rating vs OCA's... hope that has cleared thing up for you.

Thanks very much TJ. Really appreciated...

[trader_jackson]

Kind of also interesting to see the pay... ARV, which is over 25% bigger by market cap than OCA right now had a CEO earned 10% less than the CEO at OCA, and last year (FY18) he earned over $100k more than the guy at ARV... OCA also had 7 more people in the 6 figure range than ARV... anyhow, yea always a bit more interesting when you read past the thread, past the interviews and past the hot air.

At the end of the day, ARV is a much bigger company, with less 'big wigs', a better NPS and a higher staff engagement than OCA... and who knows, some of this stuff might change (for better or worse) after the big acquisition late last year... Anyway, I'll shut up with the comparisons for the rest of the day at least ;) ,

[winner69]

Hey tj - I’m always impressed when Arvida report 96% staff give their best everyday ...not perfect but pretty damned good I reckon ........probably a few millennials let the team down

[Joshuatree]

Resignation of CFO and appointment of replacement CFO 1 page 101.0KB (https://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=02192560)

[Beagle]

Did he simply get sick and tired of the board and management not understanding the need for proper financial disciplines ?

[percy]

Reading up Brent Pattison's CV I think The Beagle is going to be really challenged reading OCA's future accounts.
May be a case of "an old dog having to learn new tricks."
Off course The Beagle will receive clear helpful independent guidance from TJ......................lol.

[Ggcc]

Did he simply get sick and tired of the board and management not understanding the need for proper financial disciplines ?
There have been so many resignations in many different companies this week. I would believe New Year means new plans category.

[Beagle]

Reading up Brent Pattison's CV I think The Beagle is going to be really challenged reading OCA's future accounts.
May be a case of "an old dog having to learn new tricks."
Off course The Beagle will receive clear helpful independent guidance from TJ......................lol.

LOL. They do my head in already but I think I'll pass on assistance from t.j.
Happy to listen to Mav and our other newly arrived bright spark :)
Macquarie probably hoping Brent can dig them out of their intransigent position and must be licking their chops with the prospect of ~ $1.5 Billion being released for reinvestment with the pending takeover of MET.

2020 is shaping up as likely to be the year Macquarie do a massive placement to exit their stake in OCA. Wonder what discount to the market price this will be done at and how many of those shares find their way back onto the market over and over again like last time ?

[mfd]

Interesting that they highlight the new guy's experience in mergers, acquisitions and takeovers.

[Beagle]

Interesting that they highlight the new guy's experience in mergers, acquisitions and takeovers.

Yeah running a tightly disciplined operation isn't sexy...so best to jazz it up a bit
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/347068/315202.pdf

[winner69]

Beagle - in reply to you post that seems to have gone

NZ Superfund could take just under half of Macca’s lot easy peasy in a few months

Probably would see a far greater future return from Oceania than they would ever have got from MET

[macduffy]

Did he simply get sick and tired of the board and management not understanding the need for proper financial disciplines ?

Who knows? But ten years in a senior job with one company must be some sort of record these days!

;)