OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[winner69]

I've done plenty of homework on this company and from that I have built a rock solid belief in their model and execution . But .....this relentless, seemingly endless selling to the point of barely a few buyers left is getting tiresome. Personally , I won't be selling one share but I do feel for those out there on this downhill ride who don't have the same confidence in this company.

Maverick .....the percy of the Oceania thread

Sorry mate .....somebody put me up to it

[Maverick]

Maverick .....the percy of the Oceania thread


Thats one hang of a compliment for you Percy

[percy]

thants one hang of a compliment for you Percy

Happy to take it.
"Never have enough".!!...lol.


ps.I like reading your well researched posts.

[Joshuatree]

Nurses unions launch campaign calling for greater staffing numbers at aged care facilities (https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/nurse-unions-launch-campaign-calling-greater-staffing-numbers-aged-care-facilities)
"The report contains the views of 1194 staff across the country, including registered nurses, enrolled nurses, caregivers and facility and clinical managers.

Around 73 per cent of those surveyed felt staff numbers at their care facility wasn’t high enough to provide quality care for residents.

Around 85 per cent of those surveyed said it is difficult or very difficult to get extra staff when residents need more care."



I agree with this having seen only one staff member doing lunch for all the inhabitants at a care house, many who needed help getting to the table.

Cost pressure threats there.

[bull....]

directors buying again , they really want that 1.04 level too hold too lol

[winner69]

Director Isaac buys another 40,000 shares adding to his first purchase of 50,000 last November

Good on him

[silu]

directors buying again , they really want that 1.04 level too hold too lol

I want in but not in a confirmed downtrend.

[bull....]

I want in but not in a confirmed downtrend.

going against the trend can have its risks

[dr_]

directors buying again , they really want that 1.04 level too hold too lol


Sky is not going to fall out if it goes below 1.04.

[dreamcatcher]

Public Censure of Macquarie Securities (NZ) Limited................. NZX announcements

3. Following an investigation conducted in 2018, NZX Regulation (NZXR) established that 102 trades had occurred over a ten month period where an underlying client of MAQA’s DMA Authorised Client was on both sides of the trade due to issues with different algorithmic trading strategies employed by the underlying client making opposing decisions about a particular stock (NCBO Trades).

Any thoughts if this belongs here ?

[Joshuatree]

"New Zealand Nurses Organisation and E Tū claim aged care is a broken system in the report, In safe hands? How poor staffing levels and rationed care are harming aged care residents and staff."

Just too inconvenient for some on here by the looks, investment bias , head in the sand sorta approach, hardly investing.

[dabsman]

I read this - I dont think this is the big listed operators to be honest but Couta would know more than I

Could be a good time for a buying spree from ARV? And a takeover offer for MET?

[bull....]

big sellers for sure now at 1.04 , 05

[couta1]

I read this - I dont think this is the big listed operators to be honest but Couta would know more than I

Could be a good time for a buying spree from ARV? And a takeover offer for MET? The industry have been wanting and waiting for the Govt to set minimum staff ratios but they haven't come to the party because they know it will cost them big time if they do.

[bull....]

this thread is like a ghost town now , used to be the hottest show in town

[Beagle]

this thread is like a ghost town now , used to be the hottest show in town
I'm going to call you out on that post as being factually incorrect. 5 full pages so far this month and we're just half the way through March.
I think people are struggling to understand why the share price isn't doing better. My thoughts for the current year prospects have already been articulated.
I think on a one year or longer view this has excellent prospects but am not expecting much underlying profit growth for FY19. That's not in any way to suggest the company is not on track, its simply a timing issue on when the underlying profit will be realised for their developments scheduled for completion in May 2019, the last month of their financial year.
Holding a decent sized stake and watching the share price with interest. On a one year view this time next year we will be looking forward to what should be a year to 31 May 2020 of very solid underlying profit growth. In the meantime there's the best dividend yield in the sector to enjoy.
Disc Holding SUM and OCA in this sector.

[BlackPeter]

this thread is like a ghost town now , used to be the hottest show in town

Must be the negative vibes coming from some bear in disguise ...

But seriously - why would anybody want to discuss one of the best opportunities on the NZX if they could instead buy some more for themselves?

Traditionally it is the stocks with the quite threads which outperform in the long term. Less hype, more performance.

It might take 6 months or 12 months, but then, I am sure, their financials will speak for themselves ...

[LAC]

Iv topped up today, price looking good for me as I am looking long term. When this tread was going nuts, I was buying SUM at low 6's so now its turned and I am doing the opposite:)

[bull....]

the market is always right in the end

[sb9]

the market is always right in the end

Wow, someone cleaned out that big lot sitting at $1.02.

[BlackPeter]

the market is always right in the end

Absolutey - if you need to sell, you need to sell, no matter how ridiculous the actual price proposition of the market is.

Did you ever notice that the markets "always right" tends to change from day to day and from minute to minute? A successful investor or trader would exploit this phenomena by buying cheap and selling dear ... an unsuccessful trader would sell cheap and buy dear ... are you proposing the latter is what we should do :)? - or what else is the purpose of your recent posts??

I guess I don't know your trading strategy - it appears to be something like momentum trading. Follow the flow and try to cream ... and fair enough - as long as it is not too many doing it, there will always be a bit of money in swimming with the stream. But just imagine the mess if everybody would try to apply this particular strategy.

Not sure though whether you realise how negative most of your posts come across. Do you enjoy downramping and baiting people - or do you just have such a gloomy mindset?

[dr_]

the market is always right in the end

by observing you have very vested interest in OCA. must be have short position open :)

Like your daily entertaining doom & gloom posts on ATM in OCT/NOW when push down from $13 to $9ish... well that gave me more oppt to load.

[bull....]

by observing you have very vested interest in OCA. must be have short position open :)

Like your daily entertaining doom & gloom posts on ATM in OCT/NOW when push down from $13 to $9ish... well that gave me more oppt to load.

didnt know you could short oca? and i hardly think atm was pushed down from 13 to $9 from posting on this forum lol but maybe it could be just that i pick up on trends quicker than some other people or perhaps find good and bad in companies that others dont see. who knows but as wee say cant beat the overall wisdom of the market.

people always get upset when they dont like what they hear

[bull....]

Absolutey - if you need to sell, you need to sell, no matter how ridiculous the actual price proposition of the market is.

Did you ever notice that the markets "always right" tends to change from day to day and from minute to minute? A successful investor or trader would exploit this phenomena by buying cheap and selling dear ... an unsuccessful trader would sell cheap and buy dear ... are you proposing the latter is what we should do :)? - or what else is the purpose of your recent posts??

I guess I don't know your trading strategy - it appears to be something like momentum trading. Follow the flow and try to cream ... and fair enough - as long as it is not too many doing it, there will always be a bit of money in swimming with the stream. But just imagine the mess if everybody would try to apply this particular strategy.

Not sure though whether you realise how negative most of your posts come across. Do you enjoy downramping and baiting people - or do you just have such a gloomy mindset?

market maybe wrong in the short term but always right in the long term , depends what you define as long term. my post are not negative more just a reflection of reality. some people get blinded by there love of things so find it hard to see the truth sometimes

[bull....]

actually the sector is down this mth met 9% arv 5% oca 5% rym up 4% and sum up 7% so maybe people are selling oca and buying sum ? or rym or maybe some of you think its beagle caused the price of sum to go up 7% this mth :scared: sh...t bull and beagle driving the price of shares up and down lol

[percy]

the market is always right in the end

With markets there is never an end.
So the market may be right at the end of an hour,a day,a month,a year or 100 years.
I have found I can stay solvent longer than the market can stay wrong.!!.
Made the odd dollar too doing so....lol.

[davflaws]

market maybe wrong in the short term but always right in the long term , depends what you define as long term. my post are not negative more just a reflection of reality. some people get blinded by there love of things so find it hard to see the truth sometimes

I asked you a while back if you had ever made any positive posts, cos the ones I was aware of all seemed to downramp. You told me you had seen the upside sometimes and posted accordingly, and you are/were right - you had.

It might be that people on this forum (and perhaps even human beings in general) are inclined to remember the downramps and not the optimistic things they read here

[LAC]

I dont mind Bulls posts to be honest, he has been right on some of the down trends as much has others been right about the ups. So all in all theres always two sides to a coin and as long as you take all posts on here with a grain of salt then Bulls posts are fine. Bulls just seems to post more about the downs hence we remember him/her but dont forget about the ones who post all the positives of a company consistently and then go silent when the SP heads down....
Everyones opinion is valued by me on here, I just value some a little more than others:)

[SCOTTY]

Thanks bull. I enjoy your posts. Everyone having an opinion is what makes this forum. It would be very boring if we all had the same views. Keep them coming :)

[trader_jackson]

actually the sector is down this mth met 9% arv 5% oca 5% rym up 4% and sum up 7% so maybe people are selling oca and buying sum ? or rym or maybe some of you think its beagle caused the price of sum to go up 7% this mth :scared: sh...t bull and beagle driving the price of shares up and down lol

I am surprised OCA is getting ever closer to dancing with the dollar mark again, I was happy to top up at $1.04 but not so happy now... would have been better buying more ARV at $1.27 on the 24th of December instead.
What I do look forward to is walking around The Sands in about 2 months time.

(for the record, ARV went ex dividend on 4th of March, and has subsequently paid it on the 13th... On 1st of March ARV was $1.28, on Friday it was also $1.28... so I think you'll therefore find ARV has produced a positive return for the month so far of about 1% - just a small thing, but thought I would put it out there)

[trader_jackson]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/332076

not a good look when a director sells well over 6 figures worth at a 'low price'... insiders worried about increasing nursing costs? (and, most importantly, inability to successfully pass these higher costs onto end users?)

[winner69]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/332076

not a good look... insiders worried about increasing nursing costs? (and, most importantly, inability to successfully pass these higher costs onto end users?)

.....and Head Nurse and something to do with Risk as well

But only a new deck job t_j so nothing sinister

[winner69]

Liz said the other day ‘Cmon team we need to support the share price as it’s collapsing ’

Barbara was playing around on her mobile and wasn’t really paying attention to Liz and thought she said ‘profits collapsing, sell your shares’

[Beagle]

Liz said the other day ‘Cmon team we need to support the share price as it’s collapsing ’

Barbara was playing around on her mobile and wasn’t really paying attention to Liz and thought she said ‘profits collapsing, sell your shares’

LOL...we're all in much need of humor. Wonder what the FY20 forward PE is now...you know...the one that encapsulates earnings after the next funding round on 1 July that encapsulates all the extra labour costs for the full year.

[percy]

.....and Head Nurse and something to do with Risk as well

But only a new deck job t_j so nothing sinister

Small beer.
Not material.
As you point out nothing sinister.
Over the years I held EBO.A number of major shareholders came and went,while the business just kept performing.
I see OCA ontinuing to deliver on their strategy.

[bull....]

not many buyers on the depth at the moment , 98 - 100 is a support area so see if they appear at some stage

[forest]

Small beer.
Not material.
As you point out nothing sinister.
Over the years I held EBO.A number of major shareholders came and went,while the business just kept performing.
I see OCA continuing to deliver on their strategy.

Not material, specially when one realises that she is likely to get an extra app 316k share for long term employees service.

[Maverick]

This is so much fun...like the giant drop at dreamworld.

[winner69]

This is so much fun...like the giant drop at dreamworld.

Maverick - maybe, just maybe, your assessment and sums are wrong

What happens at the giant drop at Dreamworld if that’s the case.

[peat]

is this the dreaded overhang!!
or would they have to tell us if they are reducing?

[Maverick]

Maverick - maybe, just maybe, your assessment and sums are wrong

What happens at the giant drop at Dreamworld if that’s the case.
The sums are not wrong. Nothing has changed with the company, the problem is that the sellers have simply exhausted the buyers. It`ll turn the other way one day. I`m as calm as a cucumber.

[Beagle]

This is so much fun...like the giant drop at dreamworld.

No good mate. I get fear of heights and dizziness from rollercoasters.

[tuaman]

not many buyers on the depth at the moment , 98 - 100 is a support area so see if they appear at some stage
You are really bang on with this OCA stuff. Is 0.89 for next support you guess? I am all ears. Ta.

[bull....]

You are really bang on with this OCA stuff. Is 0.89 for next support you guess? I am all ears. Ta.

technically there nothing relevant about 89c i can see , no price history under 95c really to make any assumptions about much from a t/a perspective. fundamentally some people might be able to make a case for such a price in time.

[BlackPeter]

Just to throw some random numbers into the discussion:

Analyst consensus (4-traders) is $1.18 (in a band from $1.11 to $1.24). Statistical reliability (for what it is worth) - I do track their forecasts for the stocks I hold and watch - and for these they get roughly 60% right. Obviously - the other 40% are wrong. Just for clarification: "Right" means in this context the stock is at forecast below the prediction but reaches or exceeds the prediction at least once at or before the end of the prediction period).

DCF value (ShareClarity): 88 cents; Statistical reliability: only started to track these values (i.e. 2 early to tell), but so far I found less than 10% where the ShareClarity DCF looked sensible compared to the known fundamentals, analyst consensus or SP development;

Graham formula ((8.5 + 2g) * EPS) returns $2.54 per share; Typically though ways too optimistic;

... but if I use the famous bull (or should I say B/S) formula using my random gernerator, than the answer is 42 ... (not sure though, whether this is cents or dollars).

SP can go anywhere as long as there is an imbalance between sellers and buyers ... the old play between fear and greed.

bull (s?) seem to like the fear game ...

[BlackPeter]

... and here are some random support zones:

$1 (at end of day) would be a quite significant support (if it holds ...) just because markets do love round numbers.

98 cents - OCA bounced a long time along along this support level - these things tend to stick in investors memories (and they buy ...).

95 cents used to be the bottom of one of these (a bit) larger troughs - another potential support zone ...

... and below that there is obviously the IPO price (not absolutely sure, I think it was 85 cents).

I'd see the SP as unlikely to drop below the high 90'ies (and certainly not below the IPO price) - but if somebody is playing games, than one never knows where naked fear can lead investors :scared:;

Obviously - all this fearmongering re wages, evil Australian retirement homes and CGT is - just that: plain fear mongering.

Any of above would impact on all of our retirement villages in a similar manner - and so far I don't see them all crashing into the ground.

[bull....]

bp you forget to mention the property market which is the most important consideration for most. declining margins would reduce the profitabilty of all of them wouldnt it? you dont even need a falling property market to affect margins

[Beagle]

bp you forget to mention the property market which is the most important consideration for most. declining margins would reduce the profitabilty of all of them wouldnt it? you dont even need a falling property market to affect margins

House prices are going up in most of the country. Its very very easy for people based in Auckland to get tunnel vision especially when going through the new waterview tunnel :lol:

[BlackPeter]

bp you forget to mention the property market which is the most important consideration for most. declining margins would reduce the profitabilty of all of them wouldnt it? you dont even need a falling property market to affect margins

Wouldn't this impact as well on all retirement villages? If yes, why is SUM currently climbing?

[bull....]

Wouldn't this impact as well on all retirement villages? If yes, why is SUM currently climbing?

guess so in the long run.

if you look at sum vrs oca both have reported results and since these results sum has gone up oca down. maybe the fundamentals are better for sum than oca in peoples eyes hence the switching from oca to sum

[Beagle]

One company slightly disappointed and the other really impressed. I am unsure why anyone is surprised by their relative share price movements since they reported ?

[Ggcc]

OCA will have its day. If not this year then next year. I can wait and I am sure many longterm holders are not worried, maybe optimistic at the prospect of investing more money if the price drops further.

[Maverick]

You're are worry Maverick

Profit downgrade from $75m to $64.5m

Downgrades usually come in threes many say

Don't be too pessismistic with your next downgrade or two....bearing in mind F18 underlying earnings were $52m

I see your reported profit figure of $50m to $65m is a lot less than F18 .....hmm

Maybe the pros have done the sums as well and thats why the share price is languishing
Hey Winner (and if there's anyone else still holding), ive tried to narrow my predicted OCA fy 19 gaping wide profit expectation band of 50-64.5 mil.
New sales from OCA is the crucial factor to where about within this band the reported number will sit. Soooo......I've been putting some attention on the relationship between unit deliveries and sales. I've been modelling from ARV selling rates as they are OCA`s closest cousin and have been around a bit longer with more historical stuff to work with. I'm still sticking with a "real" OCA profit of 64.5 million although they would have to sell all of there newly delivered units in fy19, this of course won't be a reality. I've already stated I think it will head line between 50 - 64.5mil entirely depending on how many delivered units actually get sold FY19.
I now reckon it will be reported close to 55 million. (Interestingly for me, Beagle has said about this number already) The remaining 9.5 million profit will be disguised as "empty stock" and reappear as profit in fy20.

55 mil at a PE of 13.5 = share price $1.22. (Result comes out 4 months from now).

IMO the Pe should then be around 16 but it would seem hell will freeze over first.
Of course all of this is just my opinion and currently there is no logic to today's share price anyway other than someone bloody minded shareholder/s wants out.

[winner69]

Maverick — so ‘forecast’ of ~$75m down to ~$65m and now down to ~$55m

Downgrades come in threes they say ...so is next one $51.6m ...the same as last year

No or low growth company ...hype not turning into reality.

Such oe formance OCA deserves to be on ARV multiples ......PE of about 10 to 11 ....shareprice 85centsvto 95 cents

Jeez looks like my ‘investment’ has become more of a ‘speculation’ - should not have got sucked in by the hype....hoping like hell now OCA will ‘have its day’

[BlackPeter]

Maverick — so ‘forecast’ of ~$75m down to ~$65m and now down to ~$55m

Downgrades come in threes they say ...so is next one $51.6m ...the same as last year

No or low growth company ...hype not turning into reality.

Such oe formance OCA deserves to be on ARV multiples ......PE of about 10 to 11 ....shareprice 85centsvto 95 cents

Jeez looks like my ‘investment’ has become more of a ‘speculation’ - should not have got sucked in by the hype....hoping like hell now OCA will ‘have its day’

Mmh - I guess profit can grow this year or (more likely) next year, but if you think this is a no growth company - do you assume they never will sell the units they deliver?

This does not make sense to me unless somebody stops people from growing older and magically inflates the housing supply. The 37 houses Labour deliverd in their first year won't cut it and so house prices unlikely to drop.

[macduffy]

Mmh - I guess profit can grow this year or (more likely) next year, but if you think this is a no growth company - do you assume they never will sell the units they deliver?

This does not make sense to me unless somebody stops people from growing older and magically inflates the housing supply. The 37 houses Labour deliverd in their first year won't cut it and so house prices unlikely to drop.

I agree, BP. Nothing has changed in terms of the bigger picture but as has been said before, this is a term investment - and not necessarily one for the traders.

[Maverick]

Maverick — so ‘forecast’ of ~$75m down to ~$65m and now down to ~$55m

Jeez looks like my ‘investment’ has become more of a ‘speculation’ - should not have got sucked in by the hype....hoping like hell now OCA will ‘have its day’

i think you've it got around the wrong way Winner..."looks like you're speculation has become more of an investment"

the profit will be there, just will need to be more obvious under people's noses for the current market to see it . Seems only a few actually read their info to the point of understanding it. That just might take another year.....BUT ITS THERE!!!!!

I figure W69, your just bored today and taking the piss....your too smart for that post to be serious.

[allfromacell]

I think some risks are overlooked a little on this thread. Mainly the staff levels, there are 2550 staff at OCA who in total look after 3600 residents. The seems like a lot of staff and like most of us they all want more money!

Regardless $1 does seem like decent buying so I've joined the hype and purchased decent sized holding today.

[BlackPeter]

I think some risks are overlooked a little on this thread. Mainly the staff levels, there are 2550 staff at OCA who in total look after 3600 residents. The seems like a lot of staff and like most of us they all want more money!

Regardless $1 does seem like decent buying so I've joined the hype and purchased decent sized holding today.

Question would be - do they have too much staff working for them, given that they need to care for a lot of vulnerable people 24/7? I would not think so, but people like couta would have probably a better idea.

If the staff ratio is right, than I guess it is at the end just the customer (or indirectly the government) who has to pay for this cost. Not a risk to the business given that every competitor would have the same cost unless some of them like to lose money.

Ah yes, and welcome on board. I think you got your ticket for a reasonable price (though - admittedly - my average buy in is lower):);

[winner69]

the profit will be there, just will need to be more obvious under people's noses for the current market to see it . Seems only a few actually read their info to the point of understanding it. That just might take another year.....BUT ITS THERE!!!!!




I’ve read there stuff, read stuff on here, read other stuff, talked to an Oceania guy, done a fair bit of modelling and still can’t see it.

Yes next year might be better than this year and all that but not to the extent some people ar3 saying.

I have an issue with the sales price trends but even though i’ve sort of worked out why but to me it just doesn’t make sense they can have 52 more sales and make about the same in underlying profit (and heaps less at Comprehensive Income level)

So in the meantime I will remain as one of the majority (who are rather dumb) and not one of the clever few who understand what they present.

Hoping it all comes right one day ...really hoping

[BlackPeter]

I’ve read there stuff, read stuff on here, read other stuff, talked to an Oceania guy, done a fair bit of modelling and still can’t see it.

Yes next year might be better than this year and all that but not to the extent some people ar3 saying.

I have an issue with the sales price trends but even though i’ve sort of worked out why but to me it just doesn’t make sense they can have 52 more sales and make about the same in underlying profit (and heaps less at Comprehensive Income level)

So in the meantime I will remain as one of the majority (who are rather dumb) and not one of the clever few who understand what they present.

Hoping it all comes right one day ...really hoping

I think you will find wide agreement that they could improve on making their numbers easier to digest ...

Maybe a question for the next AGM?

[Beagle]

Maybe seeing as they're running homes for the bewildered they think they should keep shareholders in the same state lol
https://www.bing.com/search?q=obfuscate&form=EDGTCT&qs=AS&cvid=7ae04c1e2daf437081236825ba693069&refig=7817b37ddb4f4ba2face3ba74c5f9e45&cc=NZ&setlang=en-US

Also rather opaque, (which requires more sniff the breeze and take a guess at least from this dog) is exactly how many of the units being delivered in 2H FY19 will actually be delivered to incoming residents before balance date and how many are delivered into finished stock. Its all about as clear as some of those Rotorua mud pools. Literally you can get a range for underlying profit from $40m to $70m depending upon how many units are signed and sold before balance date. I think its more likely in the middle of that range $50m to $60m but frankly I think its anyone's guess.

I think the main thing to concentrate on while we travel this long journey is that the projects are on time and on budget as confirmed by the company in its late January 2019 presentation. This is no easy thing in the Auckland construction market, just ask Fletcher executives lol

The profit from these new units will happen, its just a matter of which year. Those selling at 99 cents look like they may be capitulating but who knows where this goes in the short term.

[BlackPeter]

Not that it would matter for investors ... however - SP closed today 2 cents (at 101) above the days LOW (at 99) with quite good overall depth.

I take this as a good sign.

Might be last opportunity to buy OCA close to $1 ;);

[Blue Skies]

I think some risks are overlooked a little on this thread. Mainly the staff levels, there are 2550 staff at OCA who in total look after 3600 residents. The seems like a lot of staff and like most of us they all want more money!

Regardless $1 does seem like decent buying so I've joined the hype and purchased decent sized holding today.

Just quietly I thinks that's why you'll find the development of AI & robotics is moving v quickly in this industry at the moment. (Not in the interface directly with the patient or resident, but in the supporting roles a step or two back) . Within a couple of years this could be a game changer in terms of costs.

[winner69]

Not that it would matter for investors ... however - SP closed today 2 cents (at 101) above the days LOW (at 99) with quite good overall depth.

I take this as a good sign.

Might be last opportunity to buy OCA close to $1 ;);

Always good to finish above the open and the days low ...must be a candle name for that but at least not an abandoned baby one

The tide has turned ....back to 120 before we know it

Be a bit happier at that price as I wasn’t one of the lucky ones who took a punt at the ipo or in the 80s. Punting does work sometimes.

[Maverick]

ok, I`m going to call that...... another irregular huge off market transfer gone through, boom. Seen this a bit lately , so the way I see it is that the sp is being manipulated down on market ( it defies any logic at $1) to set up the buy price for these significant off market trades to go through at.

[BlackPeter]

ok, I`m going to call that...... another huge off market transfer gone through, boom. Seen this a bit lately , so the way I see it is that the sp is being manipulated down on market ( it defies any logic at $1) to set up the buy price for these significant off market trades to through at.

Always a good opportunity for retail investors to buy more. I don't think retail investors are in general disadvantaged compared to the big boys ... it is just that many don't seize the opportunities when they are around.

Discl: holding lots;

[Maverick]

Always a good opportunity for retail investors to buy more. I don't think retail investors are in general disadvantaged compared to the big boys ... it is just that many don't seize the opportunities when they are around.

Discl: holding lots;
Completely agree BP, so now we have a wide gap between the next sellers up for grabs. The normal sized pile at $1.02 and nothing else until $1.05.
So if the off market guy has completed his operation then the price will rapidly rise north. But if he has more jiggery-pokery then we can expect a huge pile to appear for sale at $1.03 to keep a lid on things.....lets see what happens next....oooooh so interesting.

[winner69]

A down day ......we don’t have an abandoned baby candle pattern forming do we? Very bearish.

[Baa_Baa]

A down day ......we don’t have an abandoned baby candle pattern forming do we? Very bearish.

That's right, we don't. The chart is definitely bear, but tossing out spooky candle names that are just plain wrong, might not be helping us understand what the chart is saying.

[peat]

A down day ......we don’t have an abandoned baby candle pattern forming do we? Very bearish.

OCA looks after old people !
No babies. Not even abandoned ones

10418

10419

[BlackPeter]

A down day ......we don’t have an abandoned baby candle pattern forming do we? Very bearish.

Hmm - still above the $1 support - line, above the 98 cents support line and above the 95 cents support line. Obviously - ways above the IPO price and IPO not that long ago.

Good money maker so far for me (but sure, looked still nicer around $1.20). But just trying to seize the opportunity the current bearish mood offers ... if you are really really pessimistic, where do you see this company in 5 years given an average forward EPS of 12 cents - even if they manage to make no money at all with selling their new units?

Where would you see them realistically (hard to imagine they make no money at all with selling the units - isn't it)?

Growth anything worth to you?

Ah yes - and a number of analysts (e.g. John Ryder) and economists call now the end of the current high volatility phase by mid of the year and they don't see drops for the (average) NZ property market either. How would this impact on your valuations above?

Given all this - why would the current SP matter unless you need to sell now?

[BlackPeter]

Wow - director Greg Tomlinson (or better a trust controlled by him) buys another 2 million shares:

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/332411/297302.pdf

I'd see this as a vote of confidence. Wish I had the spare cash to join in at the same level ... but hey - let the big boys play ;);

[percy]

Wow - director Greg Tomlinson (or better a trust controlled by him) buys another 2 million shares:

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/332411/297302.pdf

I'd see this as a vote of confidence. Wish I had the spare cash to join in at the same level ... but hey - let the big boys play ;);

Extremely positive.

[Bjauck]

A doubling of their shareholding, which was already a good size - more food for thought.

Oceania also looks after younger people in their hospitals.

[Cricketfan]

Wow - director Greg Tomlinson (or better a trust controlled by him) buys another 2 million shares:

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/332411/297302.pdf

I'd see this as a vote of confidence. Wish I had the spare cash to join in at the same level ... but hey - let the big boys play ;);

Damn, during the weekend I was trying to decide whether to buy more SUM or GNE and decided on SUM, but after this I got OCA instead. Hope it turns out to be the right call!

[BlackPeter]

Damn, during the weekend I was trying to decide whether to buy more SUM or GNE and decided on SUM, but after this I got OCA instead. Hope it turns out to be the right call!

Time will tell. Short term it may well be GNE which wins (though they are not on my purchase list - I think they are already fully priced). Out of SUM and OCA - longterm both will do well in my view, but who does better - I don't know.

Hold both, though at current nearly 5 times as much OCA as SUM ... but one of the reasons for that is that so far nobody filled my other SUM order ... happy to buy some more if the price comes a bit further down ;);

[percy]

I don't think "our" Gregg Tomlinson is a chartist.?,,lol.

[Beagle]

Didn't he buy millions of HGH in the mid 130's ? Pretty canny investor in my opinion and he's certainly done better than most of us lol

[percy]

Didn't he buy millions of HGH in the mid 130's ? Pretty canny investor in my opinion and he's certainly done better than most of us lol
He first showed up on HGH register in September 2011.

[Xerof]

He first showed up on HGH register in September 2011.Yes, he got fitted up by G Cur around 65 cents IIRC. He got the last laugh though.

[percy]

Thanks Xerof I could not remember what price Georgie fitted him up at.!!!
Very kind of Georgie.
I think a few sharetraders fitted themselves up at that price too,..
Nice 20% yield...lol.
Chart was in a massive downtrend.
Seem to remember in a moment of madness I brought a few at 58 cents,.
So did Janner,SCOTTY, and a few others.


"Always buy shares in a downtrend when drunk.!!!! "

[LAC]

I know it's frowned upon on here but I have always bought in down trends....especially when there isnt much reason for the downs. HLG, SUM, RBD, OCA, THL, SEK, ATM have all done well over time. Only exception to the trend has been one 2nd hand car dealer which I am hoping proves me wrong in the coming years.
ATM by far is the only one that doesnt meet my idea of cheap though, bit of fun I guess. OCA is looking good at current prices and will top up as soon as some other divies come through.

[Beagle]

Agreed. You'd have to be a "Goose" to sell at the current level something Maverick certainly wouldn't do :) Good solid hold for long term growth.

[RupertBear]

Poured some of my SML proceeds into OCA and SUM today :D

[BlackPeter]

Interesting day - RYM, SUM & MET down, OCA up ...

Anyway - somebody sold me another SUM parcel today at 6.40. So far I think I got them at a reasonable price ;);

[Beagle]

Buying OCA at ~ $1 or SUM at around this level is extremely cunning. Just take a really "dogged" :) approach to holding and its hard to see how you can go wrong.

[couta1]

Last week of the financial year for many, I hear some people are selling this stock down at a loss on purpose for tax losses, cunning critters will probably buy them back next week.Lol

[Maverick]

Agreed. You'd have to be a "Goose" to sell at the current level something Maverick certainly wouldn't do :) Good solid hold for long term growth.
Damn straight Beagle, I wish I could scrape together some more samolians to buy more but I reached the end of that rainbow some time ago. Does anybody want to buy a chainsaw in good condition?

[Timesurfer]

Damn straight Beagle, I wish I could scrape together some more samolians to buy more but I reached the end of that rainbow some time ago. Does anybody want to buy a chainsaw in good condition?
I'd probably be in more of a mood to swap my OCA shares for your chainsaw at the moment!
Everytime it looks like there might be a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel someone dumps another truckload of shares over the entrance.
No doubt it will turn around one day ... but at the moment it is a big red blot on my portfolio.

[minimoke]

I'd probably be in more of a mood to swap my OCA shares for your chainsaw at the moment!
Everytime it looks like there might be a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel someone dumps another truckload of shares over the entrance.
No doubt it will turn around one day ... but at the moment it is a big red blot on my portfolio.Theres been a few big dumps of SUM as well. Someone rebalancing? (or shuffling the deckchairs)

[macduffy]

Very strong day on the market today, my entire NZ portfolio is green! No, wait, there's OCA, down a cent. :ohmy:

But not to worry, it's a long term hold.

:)

[bull....]

Very strong day on the market today, my entire NZ portfolio is green! No, wait, there's OCA, down a cent. :ohmy:

But not to worry, it's a long term hold.

:)

retirement sector hasnt been doing very well last 6 mths odd

[Baa_Baa]

retirement sector hasnt been doing very well last 6 mths odd

Yeah, but it has done well in the past and will continue to do well in the future, it has fundamental drivers that few if any other sectors have. It’s times like this that value investors quiet accumulation happens in preparation for the inevitable future appreciation and sustained earnings. I love these lulls in the market for my long hold portfolio, instead of lamenting a short term sentiment it’s the time to build a long term future.

[Beagle]

Yeah, but it has done well in the past and will continue to do well in the future, it has fundamental drivers that few if any other sectors have. It’s times like this that value investors quiet accumulation happens in preparation for the inevitable future appreciation and sustained earnings. I love these lulls in the market for my long hold portfolio, instead of lamenting a short term sentiment it’s the time to build a long term future.

Nicely said. A real disappointment for the year to 31 March 2019 but often one finds one years disappointment is one of the following year's top performers. Was tempted to get a few more today but no hurry because of Macquarie's overhang.

[Maverick]

OCA acends to $1.03 (but later retreats).........." this shall be a day long remembered" - Darth V

[Timesurfer]

Nicely said. A real disappointment for the year to 31 March 2019 but often one finds one years disappointment is one of the following year's top performers. Was tempted to get a few more today but no hurry because of Macquarie's overhang.

Have they stopped dumping their overhang, or are they just lulling the punters into a false sense of security before tipping the hoist on their dump truck once again?

[King1212]

It looks like the overhang is done...now the tide is slowly turning around....

[couta1]

It looks like the overhang is done...now the tide is slowly turning around.... Wrong there is no less overhang since the last Macca placement at $1.10.

[BlackPeter]

Have they stopped dumping their overhang, or are they just lulling the punters into a false sense of security before tipping the hoist on their dump truck once again?

I don't think there is any evidence or indication that MacQuarie is selling their shares into a weak market ... If they would, they would need to issue SSH notices for every 1% they sell.

If (and I think this is a big IF) anybody is playing games, than it is more likely big institutions who want to keep the price for the next placement low.

But than - why don't we just accept the price as it is? Markets are filled with thousands and thousands of irrational beings called humans. Why would we than expect the market as a whole to be rational? As well - why would we want them to be rational? If they would than there hardly would be any opportunity to drive a bargain on the share market - wouldn't it?

A successful investor would recognise and exploit such opportunities offered by an irrational market and have afterwards the patience to wait until the market realises its folly ;);

Obviously - the markets might as well be right - in this case OCA shareholders would sit on a (roughly) $1 share producing a nearly 5% dividend. Now - how terrible would that be? :);

Discl: holding a large parcel ... and in the black :sleep:;

[couta1]

There are heaps of shares floating around other than Maccas available for sale, Maccas next offload will be a formal placement like the last one.

[King1212]

I don't think there is any evidence or indication that MacQuarie is selling their shares into a weak market ... If they would, they would need to issue SSH notices for every 1% they sell.

If (and I think this is a big IF) anybody is playing games, than it is more likely big institutions who want to keep the price for the next placement low.

But than - why don't we just accept the price as it is? Markets are filled with thousands and thousands of irrational beings called humans. Why would we than expect the market as a whole to be rational? As well - why would we want them to be rational? If they would than there hardly would be any opportunity to drive a bargain on the share market - wouldn't it?

A successful investor would recognise and exploit such opportunities offered by an irrational market and have afterwards the patience to wait until the market realises its folly ;);

Obviously - the markets might as well be right - in this case OCA shareholders would sit on a (roughly) $1 share producing a nearly 5% dividend. Now - how terrible would that be? :);

Discl: holding a large parcel ... and in the black :sleep:;



wow...5% yield....that is almost the same with Utility sector, GEN, MEL and MCY...wonder holders over Utility sector will move some of their fund here....:cool:

[percy]

Maybe they will once OCA's divie is fully imputed.

[King1212]

Maybe they will once OCA's divie is fully imputed.

Well..at the moment AIR and HLG are the top yield .....

[BlackPeter]

Well..at the moment AIR and HLG are the top yield .....

More risk means a higher reward ... but don't forget TRA as top dividend payer - I think they pay the highest dividend on the NZX .. never mind the 20% or so capital depreciation per year since 2017.

My OCA shares in contrast paid a nice divvie and went up over the last 2 years by an average of 13% per year! Thats including dividend nearly 18% yield per year!

[RTM]

Well..at the moment AIR and HLG are the top yield .....

Personally I have quite a mix of shares. So I wouldn't be saying this or that. I'd have some of everything.
And as I've said before, when something heads south...well....it only affects a small portion of my portfolio.

[limmy]

Personally I have quite a mix of shares. So I wouldn't be saying this or that. I'd have some of everything.
And as I've said before, when something heads south...well....it only affects a small portion of my portfolio.
Sounds like the way to go.

[Arthur]

Macquarie have managed to sell the port in Poland, so this is the last big asset for some of the infrastructure trusts that they are winding up.

[Beagle]

Heard a good advertisement on the radio this morning for Oceania's beachfront retirement living at "The Sands" in Browns Bay. Ready to move in, in May sounded good. Must be on time and on budget and selling up a storm. How cool is it to retire right on the beach with north facing sunny sea views knowing you have the very best of care when you need it in the future ?

My sense is this company has been beaten up pretty harshly on the market. Lets not forget it has the feel good factor with residents getting first class care and shareholders getting a ~ 4.5% yield that will grow nicely in the future.

[warren]

Heard a good advertisement on the radio this morning for Oceania's beachfront retirement living at "The Sands" in Browns Bay. Ready to move in, in May sounded good. Must be on time and on budget and selling up a storm. How cool is it to retire right on the beach with north facing sunny sea views knowing you have the very best of care when you need it in the future ?

My sense is this company has been beaten up pretty harshly on the market. Lets not forget it has the feel good factor with residents getting first class care and shareholders getting a ~ 4.5% yield that will grow nicely in the future.

Exactly my own observations with a loved infirm relative --superb facilities (will cost you but so does a house at Millbrook), superb independence of a much loved parent towards the end of life, superb care and a superb feeling we did our best.
$1.10 a share ----geeeeez what a bargain

[Blue Skies]

OCA up for the day (again) 'go you good thing' , SUM down. What's causing this?
Disc. hold both for long term.

[Beagle]

I suspect quite a number of weak hands capitulated on OCA at about $1 and that selling pressure has dried up. I also think there was quite a bit of tax loss selling by traders leading up to 31 March 2019 and now those sellers are finding they're SUM what poorly positioned.

[Baa_Baa]

I suspect quite a number of weak hands capitulated on OCA at about $1 and that selling pressure has dried up. I also think there was quite a bit of tax loss selling by traders leading up to 31 March 2019 and now those sellers are finding they're SUM what poorly positioned.

Would they possibly also be the ones who naively bought into your sustained ramp? Man, you were so all over this OCA, pumping it to the moon in spite of SUM. Now look at you, looking for reasons why SUM is a better choice, trolling the OCA thread vindicating your exit. Think about it. Your cross-promotion posts wouldn't be allowed on the despicable Hotcrapper website, I'm not sure why you get away with it here.

[warren]

Would they possibly also be the ones who naively bought into your sustained ramp? Man, you were so all over this OCA, pumping it to the moon in spite of SUM. Now look at you, looking for reasons why SUM is a better choice, trolling the OCA thread vindicating your exit. Think about it. Your cross-promotion posts wouldn't be allowed on the despicable Hotcrapper website, I'm not sure why you get away with it here.

Well Baa Baa I see it 100% differently. I see nothing anyone on here "has got away with". I see an already very big company (3000+ employees) doing exactly what it said it would do and paying me approx 4.5% with wonderful new builds on stream (I have visited 3 of them for a full tour) and many thousands of in need folks being really well looked after. I had a loved relative in a OCA self owned full hospital care apartment and it was a top class experience. Beagle analyses stats better than most and does it well and straight forwardly in manner that I really enjoy. Stick with friendly informative posts that nearly all use here and we all benefit. Do you know the value in business of a firm that does exactly what it promises ?? Its the greatest thing in business because b-----all can do it!!
I remain delighted with my substantial investment in OCA and I very much like the supervising Directors also. Ramping!! bull ---Its how I see it based on observations and facts. At 106 what a bargain.

[bull....]

not many buyers on the depth at the moment , 98 - 100 is a support area so see if they appear at some stage

support worked out well for risk takers around here

[Brain]

Would they possibly also be the ones who naively bought into your sustained ramp? Man, you were so all over this OCA, pumping it to the moon in spite of SUM. Now look at you, looking for reasons why SUM is a better choice, trolling the OCA thread vindicating your exit. Think about it. Your cross-promotion posts wouldn't be allowed on the despicable Hotcrapper website, I'm not sure why you get away with it here.

I view it differently Baa Baa. Beagle is posting his opinion like everybody else on this site. We read the opinions mull them over and come to some conclusion. We do our own research. Also I can’t see that this website has any influence on the market at all. A good example is the Turners thread where people are puzzling over who are the “wise heads” selling whereas I would gather that most would consider Turners a buy at the current price.

I value highly all all opinions expressed on this website including yours apart from the above one which is a Tad harsh.

[LAC]

I like all views, some a little harsh than others but I actually value all posts and gets me researching in other directions which I otherwise would have missed.
ONE THING FOR SURE THOUGH: there are rampers on this forum, make no doubt about that. Picking numbers from the clouds and forecasting that does happen on ST. I am not saying on OCA in particular, but in ST in general. Just DYOR and accept all posts regardless but dont make decisions on them.

[winner69]

Would they possibly also be the ones who naively bought into your sustained ramp? Man, you were so all over this OCA, pumping it to the moon in spite of SUM. Now look at you, looking for reasons why SUM is a better choice, trolling the OCA thread vindicating your exit. Think about it. Your cross-promotion posts wouldn't be allowed on the despicable Hotcrapper website, I'm not sure why you get away with it here.

Baa_baa, you are a good soul with your heart in the right place — and so is Beagle

Both of you are good guys

[Brain]

What a nice thing to say Winner. I would give you a reputation point for that but no point since there is no room for more.

[King1212]

I said before on SML.... people lose money just because people were ramping it down...at stage..it went down $9.30 ish before it bounced back just because a lot of people reading the negative comments!!!

[BlackPeter]

I said before on SML.... people lose money just because people were ramping it down...at stage..it went down $9.30 ish before it bounced back just because a lot of people reading the negative comments!!!

I think you are mixing up correlation and causation. Anway, just my 2 cents ...

[Beagle]

Would they possibly also be the ones who naively bought into your sustained ramp? Man, you were so all over this OCA, pumping it to the moon in spite of SUM. Now look at you, looking for reasons why SUM is a better choice, trolling the OCA thread vindicating your exit. Think about it. Your cross-promotion posts wouldn't be allowed on the despicable Hotcrapper website, I'm not sure why you get away with it here.

Not sure what got into you last night but F.Y.I. I still have a substantial shareholding in OCA. WOW - Talk about getting the wrong end of the stick ! Take a chill pill mate.
I think its fair to a LOT of people on here (myself included) had very high hopes that OCA would be well north of where it is today and were very enthusiastic about its prospects.
I would have thought you'd be out anyway seeing as the weak TA.
Got anything else you want to get off your chest to me ?, please take it to PM.

[minimoke]

Would they possibly also be the ones who naively bought into your sustained ramp? Got to laugh. A poster on a wee internet forum accused of ramping. It ought to go without saying any visitor here ought to be bright enough to do their own research which may, or may not include the views / analysis of one or many contributors. We are each individually responsible for our own investment outcomes.

What does get my goat is investors making decisions on company information where that information is neither timely or fulsome. What we can say of OCA is that their accounts aren't the simplest to comprehend an dthat in itself may lead to poorly timed investment decisions. Or it may just be a fickle market doing what fickel markets do. You cant lay that on one individual poster

[peat]

Gotta admit Beagle gnaws on a few bones (doesnt actually mean anything just saying it for fun Hi W69!)and that he sure aint afraid to promote his interests and current beliefs but yeh we all accept its an existential world and we all walk our own path by putting our feet in front of one another and we all choose where to put that foot, unless maybe you've granted a Power of Attorney.

Also gotta admit he picks a few turning points and so is worth a listen huh - especially for traders!

Still holding a slightly underweight portion of OCA, based on good sector, good directors, clearly articulated strategy (just like Beagle), not a bad yield considering growth potential. But not absolutely proven as yet so not something to throw the farm at imho, just part of a promising portfolio.

[Beagle]

Perhaps worth mentioning that this is a fairly young company in terms of its time listed on the market and I am sure I am not the only one improving my understanding of the company as we go. Financial statements are also one of the most difficult to understand of any I have ever tried to wrap my head around.
Also worth mentioning that the interim result was at the bottom end of my expectations and obviously quite a few others, hence the more muted tone on here since that announcement in January. I think there's a lot of people on here who are underwater on this one, even those who thought they were getting a bargain from Macquarie in their sell-down last September at $1.10.

Human nature, (which is perfectly understandable and rational) is to talk positively about one's own companies. Unfortunately human nature can also be very ugly especially so when those riding high horses like to blame someone else when they suffer losses. Wonder if they have ever heard of DYOR ? If those people want a professional opinion I would suggest they go and consult their broker, just don't expect that to be independent, it will depend upon what the house view and house investment position is.

[winner69]

Perhaps worth mentioning that this is a fairly young company in terms of its time listed on the market and I am sure I am not the only one improving my understanding of the company as we go. Financial statements are also one of the most difficult to understand of any I have ever tried to wrap my head around.
Also worth mentioning that the interim result was at the bottom end of my expectations and obviously quite a few others, hence the more muted tone on here since that announcement in January. I think there's a lot of people on here who are underwater on this one, even those who thought they were getting a bargain from Macquarie in their sell-down last September at $1.10.

Human nature, (which is perfectly understandable and rational) is to talk positively about one's own companies. Unfortunately human nature can also be very ugly especially so when those riding high horses like to blame someone else when they suffer losses. Wonder if they have ever heard of DYOR ? If those people want a professional opinion I would suggest they go and consult their broker, just don't expect that to be independent, it will depend upon what the house view and house investment position is.

Jeez, I thought you were talking about Metro Glass for a moment.

[minimoke]

I think there's a lot of people on here who are underwater on this one, even those who thought they were getting a bargain from Macquarie in their sell-down last September at $1.10.

.
I am one of those. But if I add the divi then I am at about break even.

The advantage of these going into my retirement plan is I see them as a long term play. So the short term fluctuations dont get to me too much provided SP doesnt fall to low. (I reserve the right to bleat whenever there is a fall)

Bit of self interest in OCA as well. Reckon there will come a time I'l be in need of their offerings! May as well get to know their business before then.

[Joshuatree]

I like all views, some a little harsh than others but I actually value all posts and gets me researching in other directions which I otherwise would have missed.
ONE THING FOR SURE THOUGH: there are rampers on this forum, make no doubt about that. Picking numbers from the clouds and forecasting that does happen on ST. I am not saying on OCA in particular, but in ST in general. Just DYOR and accept all posts regardless but dont make decisions on them.


Yes and a good reminder to newbies and naive folks ,there are investors on here and there are traders on here, dont get sucked in.

[Joshuatree]

Would they possibly also be the ones who naively bought into your sustained ramp? Man, you were so all over this OCA, pumping it to the moon in spite of SUM. Now look at you, looking for reasons why SUM is a better choice, trolling the OCA thread vindicating your exit. Think about it. Your cross-promotion posts wouldn't be allowed on the despicable Hotcrapper website, I'm not sure why you get away with it here.

Yep ive seen it and posted about it for years. Traders and Investors think differently. Traders want you to buy when they are selling and vice versa. So beware any pumping and down ramping, make an informed choice for yourself.

[bull....]

bounce not lasted long , getting hammered again probably because of sum results

[warren]

bounce not lasted long , getting hammered again probably because of sum results

Hello Bull. I am an old and hopefully wise businessman but I cant see any SUM results that you mention? Can you explain please.

[minimoke]

Hello Bull. I am an old and hopefully wise businessman but I cant see any SUM results that you mention? Can you explain please.
in house joke - refer SUM thread

[bull....]

Hello Bull. I am an old and hopefully wise businessman but I cant see any SUM results that you mention? Can you explain please.

summerset results today are not good , sales down , overhang of units developing and they confirm the market is slowing. this is not good for retirement stocks hence why all of them are getting sold off today. I have been warning for quite awhile things were not healthy in the sector and slowly it is starting to materialise.

[Beagle]

Mind blowing long term tail wind demographics and in my opinion this and SUM are well placed to capitalise on that, over time, and a great hold as part of a well diversified portfolio that might also include some power companies :)

[BlackPeter]

summerset results today are not good , sales down , overhang of units developing and they confirm the market is slowing. this is not good for retirement stocks hence why all of them are getting sold off today. I have been warning for quite awhile things were not healthy in the sector and slowly it is starting to materialise.

Oh dear - they published their quarterly sales numbers, not their results - and yes they did build last year 454 units but sold so far only 342 of them. Reduced however the number of their uncontracted re sell units (in the last quarter down from 52 to 40), but I suppose this does not fit into the narrative (or would have required a bit of analysis).

Doom and gloom merchants grasping for straws? But sure - messages like above are what creates the short term jitter on the share markets - and obviously that's what traders need to exploit.

Run for the hills - the bull is coming!

[minimoke]

summerset results today are not good , sales down , overhang of units developing and they confirm the market is slowing. this is not good for retirement stocks hence why all of them are getting sold off today. I have been warning for quite awhile things were not healthy in the sector and slowly it is starting to materialise.We have far to many older and aging folk clogging up residential real estate which is putting a ceiling on the housing ladder - hindering people form getting on those lower rungs. Only a matter of time before the old folk sell up to better accommodation more suited to the life style they aspire to.

[Timesurfer]

At this rate I will still be in the red when I am wanting to cash up to buy my unit!

[Onion]

We have far to many older and aging folk clogging up residential real estate ...

Translation: There are many older folk enjoying retirement in their own homes.

Seems quite reasonable to me. That will be me in a few years.

[King1212]

darn!! can not find any fund to buy more..don't want to sell my HGH and HLG.......

[winner69]

darn!! can not find any fund to buy more..don't want to sell my HGH and HLG.......

Mortgage the house mate

[King1212]

Never invest money that u can not afford to lose mate....:D

[percy]

darn!! can not find any fund to buy more..don't want to sell my HGH and HLG.......

Be happy with what you have.

[Beagle]

The "fine art" of "contentment" is named that way for a reason. Easy to say and much harder to achieve lol

[RTM]

Translation: There are many older folk enjoying retirement in their own homes.

Seems quite reasonable to me. That will be me in a few years.

I'm there now. And yes...can confirm that its quite a nice place to be ! No plans to move. Love it.

[King1212]

Be happy with what you have.

Yup thank u for reminder. I think it is a bargain to buy around $1-$105....

[percy]

I'm there now. And yes...can confirm that its quite a nice place to be ! No plans to move. Love it.

How many fish have you caught.?.....................lol.

[Beagle]

I'm there now. And yes...can confirm that its quite a nice place to be ! No plans to move. Love it.

You might feel different when you're in your early 80's and health problems start to become a PITA.

[couta1]

I suspect quite a number of weak hands capitulated on OCA at about $1 and that selling pressure has dried up. I also think there was quite a bit of tax loss selling by traders leading up to 31 March 2019 and now those sellers are finding they're SUM what poorly positioned. Those tax loss critters have had the last laugh and have found themselves SUM what well positioned after all getting to eat the same pie all over again at a cheaper price.PS-Good buying today.

[Baa_Baa]

Those tax loss critters have had the last laugh and have found themselves SUM what well positioned after all getting to eat the same pie all over again at a cheaper price.PS-Good buying today.

lol 😂 yes the gift that keeps on giving. Good to have some dry powder to take advantage of these opportunities. Nice sector discounts across the board, those with a long term horizon will be delighted.

[Mudfish]

Looking for clarification here from people smarter than me. I'm trying to give myself confidence that OCA is still a great long term hold which I believe it is but it's fair to get a little nervous after yesterday's interesting results of SUM. Looking at disclosure announcements for this year alone, 5 out of the 7 directors have increased their share holdings. 1 nursing manager decreased and 1 property manager increased. These increases occur when SP is low $1. Only 2 directors have failed to increase their holdings this year. Can someone please tell me, are these increases in holdings funded from personal cash? If this is so, it must be some sort of vote of confidence in what is going on. I also looked at SUM disclosure movements and struggle to understand them. Any thoughts? Cheers

[winner69]

Looking for clarification here from people smarter than me. I'm trying to give myself confidence that OCA is still a great long term hold which I believe it is but it's fair to get a little nervous after yesterday's interesting results of SUM. Looking at disclosure announcements for this year alone, 5 out of the 7 directors have increased their share holdings. 1 nursing manager decreased and 1 property manager increased. These increases occur when SP is low $1. Only 2 directors have failed to increase their holdings this year. Can someone please tell me, are these increases in holdings funded from personal cash? If this is so, it must be some sort of vote of confidence in what is going on. I also looked at SUM disclosure movements and struggle to understand them. Any thoughts? Cheers

Hi muddy

The directors dealings are generally their own personal money ....buying is a good sign eh

The nurse selling was selling some shares she got under the incentive scheme. So just cashing in a pay check which you can’t blame her. Still has quite a few ..that’s good

The property guy used his own cash by the looks of it. He still has heaps from the incentive scheme as well.

So to answer your question it probably is a vote of confidence from the insiders.

You shouldn’t lack confidence in your own judgement .....Just believe the story that Oceania is a great company.

[Mudfish]

Hi muddy

The directors dealings are generally their own personal money ....buying is a good sign eh

The nurse selling was selling some shares she got under the incentive scheme. So just cashing in a pay check which you can’t blame her. Still has quite a few ..that’s good

The property guy used his own cash by the looks of it. He still has heaps from the incentive scheme as well.

So to answer your question it probably is a vote of confidence from the insiders.

You shouldn’t lack confidence in your own judgement .....Just believe the story that Oceania is a great company.

Hey, cheers for your reply Winner. Just checking my thoughts as I hold on for the long haul.

[Beagle]

Those tax loss critters have had the last laugh and have found themselves SUM what well positioned after all getting to eat the same pie all over again at a cheaper price.PS-Good buying today.

Happy for you mate. Nice guys like you deserve good fortune.

[trader_jackson]

On another, slightly more micro note, Has anyone else visited The Sands? (OCA's development on browns bay beach front)
Looking pretty unfinished for a development that is meant to be opening next month

[Ggcc]

On another, slightly more micro note, Has anyone else visited The Sands? (OCA's development on browns bay beach front)
Looking pretty unfinished for a development that is meant to be opening next month
Builders are extremely difficult to get everywhere and they are highly difficult to pin down.

[Beagle]

On another, slightly more micro note, Has anyone else visited The Sands? (OCA's development on browns bay beach front)
Looking pretty unfinished for a development that is meant to be opening next month

Do you think it will be finished by 31 May ?

[King1212]

My wife is DHB RN, she said the could not find any spots in retirement villages at the moment for dimensia and oldies that required care. All all on waiting list and being care at the hospital....so OCA will do good as even property market soften..their revenue still okay from aged care fees

[King1212]

https://www.oceaniahealthcare.co.nz/investor-news/ubs-equities-conference-investor-presentation

Page 19..aged care supply, not keeping up with population growth...

It is evidence ....And happening now as many patients are in the hospital unit waiting for vacancy

[warren]

Do you think it will be finished by 31 May ?

Beagle has drive and common sense ---so ----if I understand how he works he will ring Earl on Monday and let us know the answer. And Trader Jackson could do the same and we all benefit.

[trader_jackson]

Do you think it will be finished by 31 May ?
They will have to get a move on to get it finished by 31 May...
I suppose it also depends on what one deems is finished... is finished rooms with final inspections & touch ups to be made with gravel for a lawn? or is finished ready for occupation, and looking similar to the image that has been provided in multiple presentations? If it is the latter, I will be most impressed if it can be done by OCA's FY end!

[Beagle]

They will have to get a move on to get it finished by 31 May...
I suppose it also depends on what one deems is finished... is finished rooms with final inspections & touch ups to be made with gravel for a lawn? or is finished ready for occupation, and looking similar to the image that has been provided in multiple presentations? If it is the latter, I will be most impressed if it can be done by OCA's FY end!

Time will tell. I think we're all now cognisant that the significant majority of sales will happen in FY20 anyway. Same with some of their other developments. I am viewing OCA profit growth as more a FY20 story now and I think anyone with a short term focus on the FY19 result is going to be disappointed. Multiple director purchases and some in quite large volume in recent times probably tells long term holders all they need to know to keep holding.

[Maverick]

Time will tell. I think we're all now cognisant that the significant majority of sales will happen in FY20 anyway. Same with some of their other developments. I am viewing OCA profit growth as more a FY20 story now and I think anyone with a short term focus on the FY19 result is going to be disappointed. Multiple director purchases and some in quite large volume in recent times probably tells long term holders all they need to know to keep holding.
Excellent post there Beagle. That's a very nice wrap up of what we have learned from SUM latest new sales figures and 1hy19 for OCA.
Im tempted to switch out of Hlg to pick up SUM and OCA at fridays prices but im picking there has to be an easy 20 cents left in Hlg over the next few weeks (which includes the divi)

[couta1]

Excellent post there Beagle. That's a very nice wrap up of what we have learned from SUM latest new sales figures and 1hy19 for OCA.
Im tempted to switch out of Hlg to pick up SUM and OCA at fridays prices but im picking there has to be an easy 20 cents left in Hlg over the next few weeks (which includes the divi) I wouldn't switch out my HLG for any other stock, it's been too good to me over the last couple of years better than any retirement sector stock has in the same time frame. Was only going to buy enough SUM to get to the AGM but my buy finger got carried away and I ended up with quite a few on Friday.PS-I still reckon OCA is the sector pick once it starts getting traction and is a more defensive play in a property downturn than SUM others.

[King1212]

Yup...been to HLG shops today..busy man...always busy

[Harley]

I walked past “The Sands” this morning, the last of the plastic wrap is coming off, the scaffolding is coming down and they are pouring the concrete for the public footpath outside. It’s all looking very flash for a retirement village, very impressive.
I called in to the Sands storefront office in the main street of Browns Bay, the very nice and helpful lady there confirmed it will be open as planned in May and the first residents will be moving in on the 24th of May.

[trader_jackson]

I walked past “The Sands” this morning, the last of the plastic wrap is coming off, the scaffolding is coming down and they are pouring the concrete for the public footpath outside. It’s all looking very flash for a retirement village, very impressive.
I called in to the Sands storefront office in the main street of Browns Bay, the very nice and helpful lady there confirmed it will be open as planned in May and the first residents will be moving in on the 24th of May.


Excellent, even surprisingly good, news.
No doubt it will be flash, those residents won't be happy moving into a place that still has bits and pieces lying around so I look forward to seeing a transformation from a full on construction site that it currently is, to the flash picture that has been advertised, in 6 and a bit weeks.

[Beagle]

I walked past “The Sands” this morning, the last of the plastic wrap is coming off, the scaffolding is coming down and they are pouring the concrete for the public footpath outside. It’s all looking very flash for a retirement village, very impressive.
I called in to the Sands storefront office in the main street of Browns Bay, the very nice and helpful lady there confirmed it will be open as planned in May and the first residents will be moving in on the 24th of May.

Good stuff...thank you for that. From all the house transformation TV shows I have watched it is often surprising once the core superstructure is there how little time it takes to put in all the nice finishing touches.

[Maverick]

the first residents will be moving in on the 24th of May. Great job Harley.
I'min the mood to pop up there and have a look once she's up and going. Might count the moving trucks going in over a few days from the nearby pub.
So it would seem at least some of the new sales will occur in FY 19.(by one week)
I think the market has priced in such poor results that even selling a couple could exceed expectations.

[Beagle]

great job Harley.
im in the mood to pop up there and have a look.
So it would seem at least some of the new sales will occur in FY 19.(by one week)
i think the market has price in such poor results that even selling a couple could exceed expectations.

Advertising on the radio lately has also said they are opening in May. Earl is a man of good character, (in my opinion) and I seriously doubt he would condone misleading or disingenuous advertising so I think we can take it as read that what he said in late January about this project being on time and on budget hasn't changed.

[warren]

Hi forum members. I rand Earl's office and while I didn't get him I got a manger from his office. I was told not only WILL the Sands be finished but a number of residents will have moved in by May 31 . I said "is this ahead of Schedule"? " No" I was told but "right on Schedule".
$1.03 What a bargain.

[Maverick]

Hi forum members. I rand Earl's office and while I didn't get him I got a manger from his office. I was told not only WILL the Sands be finished but a number of residents will have moved in by May 31 . I said "is this ahead of Schedule"? " No" I was told but "right on Schedule".
$1.03 What a bargain.
Thank you for sharing that Warren. $1.00 what an even better bargain

[percy]

Hi forum members. I rand Earl's office and while I didn't get him I got a manger from his office. I was told not only WILL the Sands be finished but a number of residents will have moved in by May 31 . I said "is this ahead of Schedule"? " No" I was told but "right on Schedule".
$1.03 What a bargain.

Thank you for making the phone call and sharing with us.

[couta1]

I'm loving hoovering up these at $1, keep them coming Lemmings. PS-99c would be even better.Lol

[Joshuatree]

Ive finally topped up too.Ive averaged up on my 79c entry. Longtermlongterm.

[couta1]

Ive finally topped up too.Ive averaged up on my 79c entry. Longtermlongterm. Finally now that's worth a celebration.:t_up:

[Beagle]

Ive finally topped up too.Ive averaged up on my 79c entry. Longtermlongterm.

All aboard this train...toot toot ! JT has finally now topped up are very cunningly avoiding overpaying to Macquarie last year at $1.10 in September so what could possibly go wrong now :)

[winner69]

All aboard this train...toot toot ! JT has finally now topped up are very cunningly avoiding overpaying to Macquarie last year at $1.10 in September so what could possibly go wrong now :)

Least JT won’t be able to tell us HIS average is 79 cents anymore

[Beagle]

Least JT won’t be able to tell us HIS average is 79 cents anymore

I dare not comment lol

[Leftfield]

Update released today FYI (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/333223/298286.pdf)

[Beagle]

Looks most satisfactory to me. Completing projects (especially in Auckland) on time and on budget is, much much easier said than done in this market so well done !
Interesting that they are targeting new developments where they can sell units for 50-70% of the surrounding area real estate prices.
Good long term hold at $1 in my view.

[winner69]

Always strikes me what posh sounding names these villages have

No doubt a bit of marketing / psychology aimed at target audience

I see no names like Te Rauawaawa

[minimoke]

Always strikes me what posh sounding names these villages have

No doubt a bit of marketing / psychology aimed at target audience

I see no names like Te Rauawaawa"Windermere" is the street name the complex is being built on. Dont know how long its been called that - maybe 70 years?. Its not a posh street.

[warren]

Update released today FYI (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/333223/298286.pdf)

Thank you Left field.
Well---- OCA's building supervising Director will be earning his fee supervising this quite massive building expansion program!!! To me (small careful businesslady all my life) its staggering, dream world stuff and how is it capitalized? Well done so far OCA , I am impressed (if construction is paid for from existing capital ?)
Wow she must eventually be some company this one ??
$1.50 What a bargain!!

[winner69]

Update released today FYI (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/333223/298286.pdf)

Take it this is for analyst and fund managers

With site visits hope it drums up a bit of buying interest ...badly needs something to give the share price a move along.

[longy]

With talks going on at the moment re property cycles. I was reading on NBR re OCA and Arvida aren't much affect by property cycles. I was surprised by that, any one has a take on that?

[couta1]

With talks going on at the moment re property cycles. I was reading on NBR re OCA and Arvida aren't much affect by property cycles. I was surprised by that, any one has a take on that? Not surprising because they are both still primarily care based companies and OCA has a focus on care suite development.

[macduffy]

Yes, an impressive amount of development proceeding and planned. I wonder, though, whether the emphasis on Auckland will act as a bit of a drag on the company, considering the property slowdown there. Notable, also, is the lack of any activity in Wellington, an area currently short of retirement options.

Disc: Holding

[warren]

With talks going on at the moment re property cycles. I was reading on NBR re OCA and Arvida aren't much affect by property cycles. I was surprised by that, any one has a take on that?

Well with my family we had a very infirm elderly loved one in need of hospital care BUT had full intellect and a loving family and was not short of a bob so the Privately owned care suite offered us a miracle --hospital care with privacy and ownership. We couldn't "buy" the care suit quickly enough and what a fabulous thing it was --but like a house at Mill-brook it will cost but a fraction of the house our loved one owned . It led to a significance investment in OCA. So we couldn't have cared less if the house was down to half its value, it still covered the desperately needed care suite.

[Beagle]

Well with my family we had a very infirm elderly loved one in need of hospital care BUT had full intellect and a loving family and was not short of a bob so the Privately owned care suite offered us a miracle --hospital care with privacy and ownership. We couldn't "buy" the care suit quickly enough and what a fabulous thing it was --but like a house at Mill-brook it will cost but a fraction of the house our loved one owned . It led to a significance investment in OCA. So we couldn't have cared less if the house was down to half its value, it still covered the desperately needed care suite.

Great reminder this is primarily a NEEDS based business.

[minimoke]

So we couldn't have cared less if the house was down to half its value, it still covered the desperately needed care suite.That is a key point peopel seem to be missing out on.

Generally when we are younger we want to make a property purchase on the basis we will do OK out of it long term. Even if we buy / sell into the same market.

But with OCA (and the likes) this is (generally the last property decision an owner will make. So the focus will be on quality of life in the remaining years, not future property cycles. So if they take a "hit" on the sale of current property to get the final property for their future its not such a big issue.

Likely the only people grumble are those on the inheritance list. But maximising quality of life and care options should be the over-riding issue.

[longy]

Well with my family we had a very infirm elderly loved one in need of hospital care BUT had full intellect and a loving family and was not short of a bob so the Privately owned care suite offered us a miracle --hospital care with privacy and ownership. We couldn't "buy" the care suit quickly enough and what a fabulous thing it was --but like a house at Mill-brook it will cost but a fraction of the house our loved one owned . It led to a significance investment in OCA. So we couldn't have cared less if the house was down to half its value, it still covered the desperately needed care suite.

Thanks for sharing Warren.

[King1212]

That is right...do u want the money or the service? Have anyone of u look after the sick oldies? Most of their kids do not want to look after them..therefore they all go to full care retirement village..

[value_investor]

I think the development report is very impressive, given the climate in which construction is being knocked back and not completed on time. It really shows the core competencies of OCA, obviously the other one is carrying out such a high standard of care.

Front footing the consenting now is going to pay dividends further down the line, I'm sure behind the scenes they have extensive 5 year plans on what will happen. Also like the pragmatic approach to converting current forms of care into care suites which are the higher earners and probably easier to fill as time goes on.

I had the option to double down on SUM, especially on how overcooked this recent downturn is. I'd say currently based on PE both stocks are valued at around the same relative to their price. However, OCA has imo more upside at this point, which will likely not show for years from now. The relative exposure to property prices on the whole is also lesser on OCA than SUM and that is why I added more OCA and will happily hold on my SUM investment.

[Beagle]

Good post value investor. My sense is I agree they are indeed on a very similar PE. SUM has a stellar and well proven 7 year+ track record of exceptionally strong growth, stronger on an average basis than RYM ever achieved. They have the runs on the board !!
OCA are about to complete their second year and its anyone's guess what the underlying profit will be. I like their business model and their prospects but with Macquarie having a 42% stake and the clear overhang this is enough of a factor of itself to favor SUM but when one looks at SUM's stellar track record of growth and long proven business model this looks like comparing a proven thoroughbred stayer with a young filly both competing at the Grand National Steeplechase event. I like proven stayers but this filly definitely has future promise.

For the sake of complete clarity I still hold a good sized and meaningful stake in OCA.

[Timesurfer]

I see Generate is as impressed as I am with the performance of OCA
Oceania healthcare has the dubious honour of being the weakest performing P&I holding in March

[Maverick]

Great post Value, fully agree with all of your points. I am very impressed with OCAs latest investor update. I feel well informed and even proud to see what "we" are part of. They are seriously impressive projects.(although a little ugly from the air , but hey , it's what they look like from the road and inside that matters).

It does cause me to wonder "why" they did it. It can surely only be motivated by our Aussy friends trying to lift interest in the company and SP???

The company do seem to have an excellent handle on investor realations and presentations.
While I have to agree with Beagles analogy of OCA being a young filly , it seems to be managed by a very competent and experienced syndicate.

[percy]

OCA may not have been listed very long,but some very experienced people on board,The Chair,director shareholder Gregg Tomlinson,CEO, and their highly regarded property manager.

So it is no surprise to me that they do what they say they will do.

[Beagle]

...It does cause me to wonder "why" they did it. It can surely only be motivated by our Aussy friends trying to lift interest in the company and SP???

The company do seem to have an excellent handle on investor realations and presentations.


Good proactive presentation to keep the market fully informed and I agree that there is the distinct prospect this was at the behest of Macquarie but I wouldn't rule out the prospect of senior management reading this thread and some people on here were recently wondering how the developments were progressing, so that question has been answered in a very complete way.
Possibly Macquarie really want to sell down this year but I think the market needs to see some more numbers first.

[winner69]

Good proactive presentation to keep the market fully informed and I agree that there is the distinct prospect this was at the behest of Macquarie but I wouldn't rule out the prospect of senior management reading this thread and some people on here were recently wondering how the developments were progressing, so that question has been answered in a very complete way.
Possibly Macquarie really want to sell down this year but I think the market needs to see some more numbers first.

Was there actually any new stuff in that fantastic and proactive presentation?

Seems a regular thing they do but it was nice they arranged for a couple of site visits for the fundies ...might get one or two interested.

[winner69]

Is that one of those head and shoulders pattern forming on the chart .....hope not but share price could go back to 79 cents

Nobody though HGH would fall back to 131 when some saw a H&S pattern ....you never know we could possibly see another bargain of the century buying OCA at 80 cents (30% off its highs)

[BlackPeter]

Is that one of those head and shoulders pattern forming on the chart .....hope not but share price could go back to 79 cents

Nobody though HGH would fall back to 131 when some saw a H&S pattern ....you never know we could possibly see another bargain of the century buying OCA at 80 cents (30% off its highs)

Just taking the p*ss again? Or would you mind showing us where you possibly could see a head and shoulder pattern in the OCA trend chart?

[winner69]

Just taking the p*ss again? Or would you mind showing us where you possibly could see a head and shoulder pattern in the OCA trend chart?


Use ypur imagination mate ....and you might see it forming .......just doesn't have a very deep neckline

[Beagle]

Is that one of those head and shoulders pattern forming on the chart .....hope not but share price could go back to 79 cents

Nobody though HGH would fall back to 131 when some saw a H&S pattern ....you never know we could possibly see another bargain of the century buying OCA at 80 cents (30% off its highs)

That head and shoulders on HGH was a ripper and anyone who bought at the bottom should give themselves a big pat on the back.
10471 Looks to me like most of the damage has already been done.

[winner69]

That head and shoulders on HGH was a ripper and anyone who bought at the bottom should give themselves a big pat on the back.

Yep ....and you recognised it before most did

Played out nicely from the highs of 214 and 130s became more inevitable as time went on.

I see NZX still has HGH in negative territory on their 52 week change line

[Beagle]

OCA broke down through 100 day MA support at $1.15. I should have taken more notice. Long term, no issues, short term I struggle to see what the near term catalyst is for a rerating especially with the Macquarie ovferhang ?...not worried though because for me this is a long term holding.

[winner69]

OCA broke down through 100 day MA support at $1.15. I should have taken more notice. Long term, no issues, short term I struggle to see what the near term catalyst is for a rerating especially with the Macquarie ovferhang ?...not worried though because for me this is a long term holding.

The Choppiness Index suggests price action is rather trendless at the moment.

The OBV (On Balance Volume) indicates a consistent sell down of late....just as well the likes of BP and others are in the market buying up .....or that H&S pattern might develop pretty quick :t_up:;)

[macduffy]

“Imagination is more important than knowledge.”





Beware, though, of the overactive imagination! ;)

Accept that OCA's shareprice will jump around until Maq's signals its further intentions for its holding.

[winner69]

“Imagination is more important than knowledge.”


Very profound of you macduffy

I agree with you as they say a person without imagination is like a teabag without hot water.

I’d rather have an overactive imagination than be like that

[Leftfield]

OCA broke down through 100 day MA support at $1.15. ... short term I struggle to see what the near term catalyst is for a rerating especially with the Macquarie ovferhang ?...not worried though because for me this is a long term holding.

Can someone please enlighten me why the 'Macquarie overhang' is seen as a risk?

[stoploss]

Can someone please enlighten me why the 'Macquarie overhang' is seen as a risk?
The risk is say you purchase at $ 1.00,
Macquarie then go and smash out 10% of the company at 90 cents ..,
So the risk is you purchase and maybe miss out on a bargain the next day .

[winner69]

The risk is say you purchase at $ 1.00,
Macquarie then go and smash out 10% of the company at 90 cents ..,
So the risk is you purchase and maybe miss out on a bargain the next day .

Is that why there’s been persistent selling over the last few months ...the smart money positioning themselves for the inevitable bargain?

[couta1]

The risk is say you purchase at $ 1.00,
Macquarie then go and smash out 10% of the company at 90 cents ..,
So the risk is you purchase and maybe miss out on a bargain the next day . It's incredibly unlikely that Maccas will sell any more shares until the price is well north of where it currently is.

[stoploss]

It's incredibly unlikely that Maccas will sell any more shares until the price is well north of where it currently is.
Maybe unlikely , but never say never . Markets change ... the Aussie property market tanking .... who knows maybe Macq could have some sort of exposure there and need to cash a few things up .....

[Baa_Baa]

Maybe unlikely , but never say never . Markets change ... the Aussie property market tanking .... who knows maybe Macq could have some sort of exposure there and need to cash a few things up .....

And they're well in profit, plenty of upside to sell into. So far there's no sign of that but we don't know their intentions hence the 'overhang'.

Nevertheless, the FA on this is compelling so I'm not too concerned and even at today's SP it is a long term earner.

If MacQ decided to seed the market with a good deal of shares (i.e. drop the SP doing so) I'd be happy to reap their profit and position even more than I already have for the longer term without them.

[winner69]

On Balance Volune was rising before the last Macquarie sell down. Since then the OBV has been falling ....ie persistent selling pressure.

If one reads things like Journal of Portfolio Management the general consensus is that a thing like ‘overhang’ has more emotional impacts than any real investing impacts. Investment managers buy and sell on fundamentals and ‘overhangs’ seldom influence those decisions.

With that persistent selling pressure since the last sell down msybevthe market is saying the fundamentals don’t stack up (against the hype)

Most of here no doubt think the market is really stupid.

Talking of being stupid I’m feeling rather stupid about buying OCA. Unlike the lucky ones in JT, BP, j_t and others i’m underwater with OCA ...it’s been a worse investment (if that’s what it’s calked) than my punt on Turners.

[kiora]

On Balance Volune was rising before the last Macquarie sell down. Since then the OBV has been falling ....ie persistent selling pressure.

If one reads things like Journal of Portfolio Management the general consensus is that a thing like ‘overhang’ has more emotional impacts than any real investing impacts. Investment managers buy and sell on fundamentals and ‘overhangs’ seldom influence those decisions.

With that persistent selling pressure since the last sell down msybevthe market is saying the fundamentals don’t stack up (against the hype)

Most of here no doubt think the market is really stupid.

Talking of being stupid I’m feeling rather stupid about buying OCA. Unlike the lucky ones in JT, BP, j_t and others i’m underwater with OCA ...it’s been a worse investment (if that’s what it’s calked) than my punt on Turners.

At the time IFT sold out of MET($5.61 cf market at the time $5.80)) my thoughts was they that they hadn't optimized their position.With the benefit of time and $4.69 now indicates how astute the decision was.Is this similar to how OCA is positioned now?

[Beagle]

It's incredibly unlikely that Maccas will sell any more shares until the price is well north of where it currently is.

I think its not wise to try and second guess them mate. Anyone's guess what they might do which is why I am sticking with a moderate holding and ignoring the "apparent bargain" at $1.00. Once we have some more runs on the board in terms of FY19's result and we know more about Macquarie's intention's I'll reassess and not before. They fooled me once at $1.10 in Sept 2018, once bitten, twice shy.

[Leftfield]

Thanks all for your input/discussion on the McQ overhang. The consensus seems to be that it is 'evenly balanced'. Could go either way. My thinking is that there is more upside potential than downside.

OCA is supposedly the 'safest' div/yield stock in my portfolio yet it is the only stock in my portfolio currently in the red!

Guess I'm well positioned (as Percy would say) to double up (or down) when/if there is definite news to support any move as OCA is currently approx 5% of my portfolio and I would like to increase it to about 10%. Waiting patiently, but heartened by last weeks construction/build news.

GLH

[Ggcc]

I am still of the firm belief that when this share takes off it will do it quickly. I am guessing our next price increase will take it to $1.20 again. I do feel that maybe the Macquarie group has the best deal at $1.10 for now, but if they sell the next load it will be cheaper, only if they decide to sell quick. Or if they sell in a years time they may get $1.20. Our Greg Thompson got on board at about $1 and I was told he sold his retirement village to Macquarie that created Oceania. Great little invester our Greg is. I am a happy investor slightly in the red but happy.

[Mudfish]

I am still of the firm belief that when this share takes off it will do it quickly. I am guessing our next price increase will take it to $1.20 again. I do feel that maybe the Macquarie group has the best deal at $1.10 for now, but if they sell the next load it will be cheaper, only if they decide to sell quick. Or if they sell in a years time they may get $1.20. Our Greg Thompson got on board at about $1 and I was told he sold his retirement village to Macquarie that created Oceania. Great little invester our Greg is. I am a happy investor slightly in the red but happy.

Nice post. I put a lot of faith in the fact that 5 out of 7 directors have bought in at just over the dollar mark. Surely that screams confidence.

[Lola]

Nice post. I put a lot of faith in the fact that 5 out of 7 directors have bought in at just over the dollar mark. Surely that screams confidence.

Never count on that ....eg ....not that long ago the (now former) chairman of CBL loaded up from the market.

[percy]

Never count on that ....eg ....not that long ago the (now former) chairman of CBL loaded up from the market.

I guess like every rule on the sharemarket there are exceptions...
This morning I was searching the share register of an unlisted company I have shares in.
Was very excited to see all directors and CEO had increased their shareholdings, since the last update.
Very excited.!!...lol.
So I would think that rule is correct 9 out of 10 times.
Certainly very profitable following director Gregg Tomlinson.

[Beagle]

Always a good thing for Directors and senior management to have plenty of skin in the game to keep them sharp and highly motivated. I recall eons ago reading some study done in America which suggested a very strong correlation between market outperformance and significant director / senior manager shareholdings...must be good old human nature to work more diligently when your own money is at stake. Far to easy to throw around others people's money on spurious things / pet-projects when none of it is your own, as we have seen countless times before.

[winner69]

I guess like every rule on the sharemarket there are exceptions...
This morning I was searching the share register of an unlisted company I have shares in.
Was very excited to see all directors and CEO had increased their shareholdings, since the last update.
Very excited.!!...lol.
So I would think that rule is correct 9 out of 10 times.
Certainly very profitable following director Gregg Tomlinson.

I see that Maddog has an interest in that unlisted company ......Beagle maybe?

[percy]

I see that Maddog has an interest in that unlisted company ......Beagle maybe?

I can't find Snoopy's name in the top 26 shareholders list.
Must be held in a custodial or a trust's name.

[Ggcc]

I guess like every rule on the sharemarket there are exceptions...
This morning I was searching the share register of an unlisted company I have shares in.
Was very excited to see all directors and CEO had increased their shareholdings, since the last update.
Very excited.!!...lol.
So I would think that rule is correct 9 out of 10 times.
Certainly very profitable following director Gregg Tomlinson.
Oops Gregg Tomlinson not Thompson. I agree with your quote he seems the savvy investor

[Ggcc]

I can't find Snoopy's name in the top 26 shareholders list.
Must be held in a custodial or a trust's name.
Where would you find that information about top shareholders

[percy]

Where would you find that information about top shareholders

Go to NZ Companies office,,,.I google it.
Then type in the name of the company.
Usually takes me a bit of playing around to find the shareholders.

[thestg]

Couldn't resist increasing my OCA holding by another one third last week at the $1.00 special.
Now is 25% of my portfolio at an average buy price of $1.08 so still showing a few thousand dollars in the red.
Nice to see it on the way back up today & touching on $1.03. Hope the $1.00 lower limit will be left behind this time.

[RupertBear]

Craigs have downgraded OCA from BUY to HOLD and decreased TP

[winner69]

Craigs have downgraded OCA from BUY to HOLD and decreased TP

Bugger ...at least doesn’t sound as damning as what said about SUM

[Beagle]

Craigs have downgraded OCA from BUY to HOLD and decreased TP

Thanks for sharing. This could be a good time to also consider the average broker view, here https://www.marketscreener.com/OCEANIA-HEALTHCARE-LTD-34790010/consensus/

[winner69]

Thanks for sharing. This could be a good time to also consider the average broker view, here https://www.marketscreener.com/OCEANIA-HEALTHCARE-LTD-34790010/consensus/

If only guru broker analysts were any good.

If the target is 118 that implies about 102 today with the hope their guess come true

so they might be pretty good after all.

[Leftfield]

Couldn't resist increasing my OCA holding by another one third last week at the $1.00 special.
Now is 25% of my portfolio at an average buy price of $1.08 so still showing a few thousand dollars in the red.
Nice to see it on the way back up today & touching on $1.03. Hope the $1.00 lower limit will be left behind this time.

I agree....to me it looks like $1.00 is pretty much the 'lower limit', and unless the next news is real nasty, there should be slow gains from that level.

[RupertBear]

Craigs TP $1.12

[thestg]

Craigs TP $1.12

Yes roll on to Craigs $1.12 then 4 Traders $1.18 then Mq's next sell down at $1.20:D then upwards some more.

[macduffy]

What's this?

Suddenly all the sceptics are taking notice of what brokers and their analysts say about stocks and shareprices?

:ohmy:

[trader_jackson]

Craigs TP $1.12

Wait, wasn't craigs like $1.24 not that long ago??
Please confirm they have shaved off 10% off their 12 month target price.
Maybe OCA isn't so cheap

[trader_jackson]

The good news is, at least the reliable guys at Forsyth haven't changed their target - its still at $1.13 [hold] (same as 3 months ago after half year results)
In fact Craigs and Forsyth are pretty close with their target prices and ratings.
A month ago Forsyth reiterated a 12 month target price of $1.52 with OUTPERFORM rating for Arvida Group but we know they must be wrong there!

[RupertBear]

Wait, wasn't craigs like $1.24 not that long ago??
Please confirm they have shaved off 10% off their 12 month target price.
Maybe OCA isn't so cheap

Yes that is correct

[percy]

I found it again rather odd,Craigs very positive commentary,led to a lower recommendation and target price.?
If OCA goes up,yes we thought so.
If OCA goes down,yes we thought so.
"No surprises there.!"...lol

[minimoke]

Encouraging to see another director chipping in for another 50,000 shares at $1.02

[warren]

Encouraging to see another director chipping in for another 50,000 shares at $1.02

Naturally--- Its the bargain of the decade and, as Liz is one of our finest directors, she knows value when she sees it!!
Beagle, a question fro you. Re the enormous expansion program and care suite conversion program of OCA, can you explain exactly where the Capital is /has come from? M Thanks if you would for all of us keen forum folks.
$1.25 what a bargain.

[Beagle]

Hi Warren,
If you go right back to the start of this thread you'll see when this company was originally rumoured to float it was riddled with enormous debt.
The balance sheet needed to be well and truly cleansed and strengthened as part of the IPO process and it was. If I remember correctly most of the float proceeds were used to retire bank debt. When floated the company had very low debt so essentially the development program is being run through bank debt which is still fairly modest, the gradual change to an occupation right agreement model as new developments are sold down and retailed earnings.
Capital will be recycled over and over again as units are sold down under the new business model which will fund future developments.

[trader_jackson]

Ah yes, net debt... that is one area where OCA has experienced rapid growth. From $84.4m in FY17 to an expected $203.6m in FY19, and $283m in FY20... up 235% in 3 years, that is more rapid than any other listed operator.

That FY20 number would be nearly as much as the 'bad old days' (the days when Roger wouldn't touch OCA with a bargepole - those days were a mere 2 years ago) when OCA was riddled with debt... that was before the IPO where $173m of the $200m IPO proceeds were dedicated to paying off the $259.1m in debt OCA had as at FY16 - OCA did a good job however, and reduced debt all the way down to $84.4m.

With the housing market now slowing down, it will be come down to how good OCA's continuum of care really is to attract people to their villages - otherwise we'll find sum things won't be selling so fast and capital recycling won't be occurring as swiftly... and that 'enormous debt' OCA is forecast to soon be riddled with again, just might turn into dangerous debt.

I believe OCA can do it, especially if it is as good as their flashy preso's and tour days, but it has silently and certainly elevated the risk profile of OCA above that of a particular other listed operator with strong continuum of care offering who are nearly as cheap with similar yield.

[Beagle]

Debt is relative to assets but I think you know that already.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MLN/333429/298502.pdf
In the interim financial statements released in January 2019 total external borrowings, (excluding residents advances under occupation right agreements) stood at $206.9m against total assets of $1,208.8m a bank debt ratio of just 17.1%.
Cash flow increased by 175.9% on the previous comparable period.
I have no concerns whatsoever over the gearing level and note interest rates are at around close to 50 year lows and considerably lower than a few years ago.

The original debt level including loan from Macquarie relative to assets was from memory vastly higher but the original pre IPO financials are no longer available on the Companies office website to review again.

[warren]

Hi Warren,
If you go right back to the start of this thread you'll see when this company was originally rumoured to float it was riddled with enormous debt.
The balance sheet needed to be well and truly cleansed and strengthened as part of the IPO process and it was. If I remember correctly most of the float proceeds were used to retire bank debt. When floated the company had very low debt so essentially the development program is being run through bank debt which is still fairly modest, the gradual change to an occupation right agreement model as new developments are sold down and retailed earnings.
Capital will be recycled over and over again as units are sold down under the new business model which will fund future developments.

Wow, many thanks Beagle. As I see it, while the large bank debts etc of the pre float times were paid off, it must be some business now as it paid us shareholders 4.5% approx right off the float. The old bank debt cant have been costing them too much more than say 5%?
Any-rate debt murders us all including businesses.
Could you tell us a normal debt ratio and what OCA's ratio is?
Mac's might be very happy to sit and see their 39% (?) grow into a mighty valuable nest egg?

[Beagle]

You're most welcome Warren, anytime. SUM have leverage of 32% as at 31 December 2018 which is nearly double that of OCA. I am not concerned by their leverage either as that's another company on a very strong growth path for the years ahead.

[minimoke]

With the housing market now slowing down, it will be come down to how good OCA's continuum of care really is to attract people to their villages - otherwise we'll find sum things won't be selling so fast and capital recycling won't be occurring as swiftly... and that 'enormous debt' OCA is forecast to soon be riddled with again, just might turn into dangerous debt.


The housing market may be slowing. but one thing isn't. And thats the rate of our aging population needing care.

In terms of current numbers over 30% of people aged over 65 - 74 will suffer from obesity, chronic pain or arthritis. All conditions that will require some degree of care. By the time people hit 75 obesity will have killed a few off. But the chronic pain and arthritis lingers as you get older.

From a 2014 research paper: “Dementia is a disease of ageing with the prevalence of 1-2% in those 65-74 years of age and increasing to 40% in people over 90 years of age (Treves & Korczyn, 2012). Over 41,000 New Zealanders are currently living with dementia pre and this will almost double to 75,000 people by 2026.”

Then from local aging population research by 2036 1.26m NZ’ers are expected to be aged over 65. 392,000 of these people will be aged over 80. And 14,500 will be aged over 95.

[Beagle]

The housing market may be slowing. but one thing isn't. And thats the rate of our aging population needing care.

In terms of current numbers over 30% of people aged over 65 - 74 will suffer from obesity, chronic pain or arthritis. All conditions that will require some degree of care. By the time people hit 75 obesity will have killed a few off. But the chronic pain and arthritis lingers as you get older.

From a 2014 research paper: “Dementia is a disease of ageing with the prevalence of 1-2% in those 65-74 years of age and increasing to 40% in people over 90 years of age (Treves & Korczyn, 2012). Over 41,000 New Zealanders are currently living with dementia pre and this will almost double to 75,000 people by 2026.”

Then from local aging population research by 2036 1.26m NZ’ers are expected to be aged over 65. 392,000 of these people will be aged over 80. And 14,500 will be aged over 95.

Good stuff, that's telling him !