OCA - Oceania Group - retirement villages

[Maverick]

i must be smoking to much , i thought when you had an existing stock of beds and you convert them to a care suite. there is a cost for conversion but when they sell them they get 10% upfront and a gain from the sale over the cost on the books before of the care bed.followed by 10% each yr for a total of 3 yrs. the point i was making they do not have a delay for new builds consented as its existing stock so they making 10% revenue gains very quickly etc which can only be replicated in revenue in the future if they get enough brownfields up and running which is highly dependant on consenting and land

just to clarify its a fast way to make the books look good

Here is a link that explains the costs of a recent actual example of a "conversion" from 5 care beds into 4 Care suites.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/326631/290269.pdf
Its in an Oceania investor presentation recently put out , check out page 30, it's all laid out quite nicely.

I think what you have confused here is the new villa builds with conversions of care bads to care suites.
New villa builds do rent out (ORA) at a premium to their build cost, the clients pay in full upfront so that margin on payment is revenue. However the "conversions" costs the company upfront which they eventually get back through an improved ORA, but this is less than the cost of the initial conversion.

The link above is well laid out and will explain how the whole thing works. Be warned, it might take a lot of effort and thinking (it did for me anyway) to get your head around the terms used , accounting etc but its all there.

[bull....]

Here is a link that explains the costs of a recent actual example of a "conversion" from 5 care beds into 4 Care suites.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/326631/290269.pdf
Its in an Oceania investor presentation recently put out , check out page 30, it's all laid out quite nicely.

I think what you have confused here is the new villa builds with conversions of care bads to care suites.
New villa builds do rent out (ORA) at a premium to their build cost, the clients pay in full upfront so that margin on payment is revenue. However the "conversions" costs the company upfront which they eventually get back through an improved ORA, but this is less than the cost of the initial conversion.

The link above is well laid out and will explain how the whole thing works. Be warned, it might take a lot of effort and thinking (it did for me anyway) to get your head around the terms used , accounting etc but its all there.

care beds on there books now when converted into care suite ends up as a revaluation gain on the books probably all lumped together. i get the future revenues from the conversion are mostly delayed.

just goes show they are highly dependant on getting a good sale price for there conversions

[dr_]

care beds on there books now when converted into care suite ends up as a revaluation gain on the books probably all lumped together. i get the future revenues from the conversion are mostly delayed.

just goes show they are highly dependant on getting a good sale price for there conversions


most of your posts 3000+ are all doom and gloom. I'm hotcopper guy, i just joined to say hello to you... i remembered when A2 was trading in range of 60c to 80c few years back there were couple of posters (shorters) on hotcopper just like you...posting all day long doom and gloom posts on hotcopper A2 forum. i bought 200k A2 volumes at 72c look at the A2 share price (sold half beginning of this year when it reached to nzd $14, still holding other half).

OCA is same...solid future fundamental if anyone here for long hold then this doom and gloom posts are just hot air.... it's only matters to traders....

Enjoy!!

[Beagle]

most of your posts 3000+ are all doom and gloom. I'm hotcopper guy, i just joined to say hello to you... i remembered when A2 was trading in range of 60c to 80c few years back there were couple of posters (shorters) on hotcopper just like you...posting all day long doom and gloom posts on hotcopper A2 forum. i bought 200k A2 volumes at 72c look at the A2 share price.

OCA is same...solid future fundamental if anyone here for long hold then this doom and gloom posts are just hot air.... it's only matters to traders....

Enjoy!!

Welcome to the forum and well said.

[bull....]

most of your posts 3000+ are all doom and gloom. I'm hotcopper guy, i just joined to say hello to you... i remembered when A2 was trading in range of 60c to 80c few years back there were couple of posters (shorters) on hotcopper just like you...posting all day long doom and gloom posts on hotcopper A2 forum. i bought 200k A2 volumes at 72c look at the A2 share price.

OCA is same...solid future fundamental if anyone here for long hold then this doom and gloom posts are just hot air.... it's only matters to traders....

Enjoy!!

hahha you are dead right i was posting doom and gloom about a2 at 50c they must have read my posts and got there act together lol . i did buy a2 by the way even after all the doom and gloom once i saw they were changing there ways. think i posted that too

[Joshuatree]

Contrarian opinions are essential to balance the extreme up ramping, promoting, that goes on here .Thank Dog for that!

[bull....]

Contrarian opinions are essential to balance the extreme up ramping, promoting that goes on here .Thank Dog for that!

well said it was way over hyped dog

[winner69]

At least OCA didn’t close at 104 ....that’s a good sign

[Baa_Baa]

At least OCA didn’t close at 104 ....that’s a good sign Yes, on good volume as well, a decent arm wrestle of over 1.3 million shares traded between $1.05 and $1.04 and some fairly large single crossings. Sign of confidence (bottoming?) to see the largish pile of bids and asks within a cent of each other for whole day (esp after the recent elevator ride downwards). Some get antsy that anyone would sell at these prices but likely they're cashing in good gains, while for every sale there's a buyer getting what they think is good value.

[dr_]

Yes, on good volume as well, a decent arm wrestle of over 1.3 million shares traded between $1.05 and $1.04 and some fairly large single crossings. Sign of confidence (bottoming?) to see the largish pile of bids and asks within a cent of each other for whole day (esp after the recent elevator ride downwards). Some get antsy that anyone would sell at these prices but likely they're cashing in good gains, while for every sale there's a buyer getting what they think is good value.

Well, bot selling at every 15mins @ 1.04 below asking price. This is happening since last week and half on OCA, bot selling every 15 mins below the asking price, someone after for :)

46 15:19 1.04 768 $798.72
45 15:10 1.05 2,380 $2,499.00
44 15:04 1.04 768 $798.72
43 14:49 1.04 768 $798.72
42 14:34 1.04 768 $798.7

The break will lift when someone is done with it....seen this lots on ASX with other shares. bot selling 1 unit every 10 to 15mins.

[winner69]

Somebody reminded me of a saying I always thought was quite good: "the closer you look, the less you see".

This may be a relevant to a lot of today’s discussion around care conversions

[Baa_Baa]

Somebody reminded me of a saying I always thought was quite good: "the closer you look, the less you see".

This may be a relevant to a lot of today’s discussion around care conversions

And somehow we end up knowing more and more about less and less until we know everything about nothing. Lol.

I reckon just buy your fill with this one and be happy. Current prices are a second chance for late comers.

[winner69]

And somehow we end up knowing more and more about less and less until we know everything about nothing. Lol.

I reckon just buy your fill with this one and be happy. Current prices are a second chance for late comers.

Yes, buy and be happy but one needs to have faith and hope we haven’t been sold a pup with this baby

And don’t forget Socrates as per my signature below ....cool eh

[percy]

Yes, buy and be happy but one needs to have faith and how we haven’t been sold a pup with this baby

And don’t forget Socrates as per my signature below ....cool eh

Pup.
Liz Coutts chair.
Gregg Tomlinson director/large shareholder .
Neither do pups.

[Baa_Baa]

Pup.
Liz Coutts chair.
Gregg Tomlinson director/large shareholder .
Neither do pups.

Precisely, an impressive Board and Management. People should re-read the Investor site and the company reports, this is an impressive company and great long term investment.

[bull....]

care beds to care suites i was mentioning i believed they used these to boost revenues , cashflows etc

this from there statements


· Reported net profit after tax increased by $32.1m (71.5%) compared with the prior corresponding period (pcp) to $77.0m due to uplift in valuation of investment properties driven by higher resale margins and sale of new retirement village units

care bed to suite is a change in asset

· Total assets increased by $229.0m from pcp to $1.15bn due to significant development capital expenditure, greenfields acquisitions and revaluations

i wasd saying they use the conversion to boost there books

NEW OCCUPATION AGGREEMENTS provided 45M INCREASE IN THE CASHFLOWS from the conversions i mention cause when you change from care bed to suite you get the 10% cashflow 1st yr boost the cashflow

[Beagle]

I have this on a forward PE of just 10 and a gross yield of 6% for FY19 growing strongly in the years ahead and possibly with some imputation credits in due course which will boost the yield further.

I cannot ever recall in the last 19 years since RYM listed and this sector started to grow strongly more compelling metrics from any of the sector participants at any time even during the GFC. (Perhaps my memory fails me, it wouldn't be the first time)

I also think OCA's business model offers a compelling alternative to the other sector players and plays directly into what I perceive as a shortage of late stage care going forward. I think its clear from observing things in recent weeks there's one or two institutional holders determined to sell down having taken a negative view on the sector, possibly as a result of the regulatory review concerns in Australia. I think its likely the sellers are Australian institutions who took part in the recent placement at $1.10

I think market and sector risk has overplayed itself here but on a company specific basis I have no concerns whatsoever. I have seldom seen more compelling opportunities in the market in over 30 years of investing. HLG at $2.70 a couple of years ago struck me as just about as compelling as this and likewise AIR at $1.80 a few years before that.

Just my opinion and not a recommendation and a reminder that nobody really knows what the future holds and in an extreme bear market almost everything gets beaten down. Its for this reason that I have put any further purchases on hold at this stage but this is one I will add too in due course again, (notwithstanding its already my biggest listed investment position), assuming we don't get armageddon in the markets in 2019. I remain with over 50% of my listed net worth in cash as I expect a tough year in 2019.

Might leave you guys to "enjoy" the excessively bearish comments from others for a while from here, (and go play with my new toy that Santa's got for me this afternoon). Good luck to all for 2019 and keep thinking hard and do plenty of DYOR !

[Maverick]

I have this on a forward PE of just 10 and a gross yield of 6% for FY19 growing strongly in the years ahead and possibly with some imputation credits in due course which will boost the yield further.


Good luck to all for 2019 and keep thinking hard and do plenty of DYOR !
Completely agree with all your thoughts here Beagle.
How is that Numpty one seller this morning dumping 130k of shares at $1.05 ???(3 cents lower than any other seller). No wonder an average Joe like myself can make money in this game. Got a good feeling that OCA might have a green colour tonight ($1.06?)
Looking forward to reading OCA`s progress late January.
Thank you very much Beagle for all of your well thought out contributions over 2018. Have a well deserved break

[bull....]

i take it the bearish comment was directed at me. i for one dont know why people get so upset when someone has a different opinion on a stock? whether its from reading a chart or f/a thats what a market is full of different opinions. i thought a very bullish beagle not so long ago would stand there ground with a bit more grit than be running away with a tail stuck between its legs over some differing opinions offered.

anyway i will too be taking a break and wish everyone including beagle a merry xmas

[Beagle]

I have better things to do that argue with you at this time of year bull. I have one of the fruits of my hard work arriving this afternoon. Investment has been defined simply as "deferred consumption"
More fun actually enjoying the fruits of my labour than debating why your excessive negativity isn't warranted. You can label it anything you want but believe me the choice between enjoying my new toy and debating with you is not a hard one lol

Many thanks Maverick. I always enjoy reading your very well researched posts too. Have a great Christmas mate :)

[minimoke]

Sometimes we need to put words aside and look at a nice simple picture. And this is the simplest I can find. Make of it what you will (Its why I hold OCA, RYM and HGL)

[LAC]

i take it the bearish comment was directed at me. i for one dont know why people get so upset when someone has a different opinion on a stock? whether its from reading a chart or f/a thats what a market is full of different opinions. i thought a very bullish beagle not so long ago would stand there ground with a bit more grit than be running away with a tail stuck between its legs over some differing opinions offered.

anyway i will too be taking a break and wish everyone including beagle a merry xmas

I enjoy all opinions....So Bull...Beagle...Ghost M.....keep them coming. Most views end up in the same place over time, one person is right and one person is wrong. So with all these views on OCA, only time will tell who is consistent with their posts. I have been accum all the way down from $1.20, so all in all I should have waited it out. Lesson learnt and really look fwd to all the views in the coming year. To all taking a break enjoy:)
Beagle...what's the new toy? (Just been in the Model P100D and geez that's on a different league)

[minimoke]

And here is another. Palliative care people have an interest in the number of upcoming deaths so they can plan accordingly. These figures could also be used for anticipating churn rate of care units

[Beagle]

Beagle...what's the new toy? (Just been in the Model P100D and geez that's on a different league)
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?10030-What-does-your-car-say-about-you/page7
A very carefully considered acquisition...had very high end Euro's and very fast and powerful cars before...time for something different and more sensible. Tows up to 2100 kg's too so have half an eye on getting a boat or caravan in due course as I get even more semi retired :)
Not getting a BMW but thought you guys might find this amusing lol https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=AM7AqD7D&id=7E0AA778B84EB377C035844ABE3272D174C42E11&thid=OIP.AM7AqD7DluDJmeHdrwfX4gHaHa&mediaurl=https%3a%2f%2fi.pinimg.com%2f736x%2f64%2f c7%2f00%2f64c700e717c0522498118494bdd39266--beagle-funny-beagle-puppies.jpg&exph=736&expw=736&q=beagle+images+puppies+in+a+car&simid=607996780102815704&selectedIndex=0

[BlackPeter]

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?10030-What-does-your-car-say-about-you/page7
A very carefully considered acquisition...had very high end Euro's and very fast and powerful cars before...time for something different and more sensible. Tows up to 2100 kg's too so have half an eye on getting a boat or caravan in due course as I get even more semi retired :)

A boat? I heard from somebody who should know that this is the fastest method to burn money ...
Better buy some more OCA shares - they pay dividends and the SP will recover ... eventually;);

[LAC]

Nice, very nice

[Beagle]

Nice, very nice

Thanks mate, just got the email its ready and have been waiting a very long time for that specific model and colour, so its play time.
P.S.Thought for the day...what's the point of investment if you don't enjoy some of the dividends from time to time :)...you reading this Couta1 ?

[Maverick]

Just tried to share come Christmas joy by buying 1 OCA share at $1.09. just imagine the share price up 4% today.
Order was quickly followed up by a phone call from ASB then cancelled. (need a min of about $500)
Sorry guys ... I tried...

[dobby41]

A boat? I heard from somebody who shoud know that this is the fastest method to burn money ...

A hole in the ocean to pour money into.

[Timesurfer]

Just tried to share come Christmas joy by buying 1 OCA share at $1.09. just imagine the share price up 4% today.
Order was quickly followed up by a phone call from ASB then cancelled. (need a min of about $500)
Sorry guys ... I tried...

ASB can be quite anal at times - I seem to get a few phone calls from them telling me I am trying to break the stock exchange. If the pocket money I am playing with can influence stocks to any degree I am thinking this is probably a dodgy investment!

[davflaws]

A hole in the ocean to pour money into.

The hole may be lined with a variety of materials - wood, GRP, steel, ferrocement - but it has three principle dimensions - length, breadth, and debt!

I own altogether too many boats nevertheless, but there are snapper and scallops in the channel, and kingies round the buoys.

[winner69]

We have takeoff ....the share price rocketing ahead

[Beagle]

A boat? I heard from somebody who should know that this is the fastest method to burn money ...
Better buy some more OCA shares - they pay dividends and the SP will recover ... eventually;);

I once saw a brass plaque on an old wooden launch with the inscription...wish I'd taken more notice at the time but it read "A boat is a hole in the water into which the owner tips all their spare money" I can confirm from first hand experience this is an outright lie. You will also tip a VAST amount of money in that isn't spare lol

[IAK]

I once saw a brass plaque on an old wooden launch with the inscription...wish I'd taken more notice at the time but it read "A boat is a hole in the water into which the owner tips all their spare money" I can confirm from first hand experience this is an outright lie. You will also tip a VAST amount of money in that isn't spare lol

Depends what type of boat it is. My 6m aluminium Surtees boat with a Yamaha 2 stroke on the back has cost me very little, pretty much bomb proof. I guess it's a different story when you've got a 20 metre gin palace parked up at the Viaduct eh Beagle lol.

[davflaws]

Depends what type of boat it is. My 6m aluminium Surtees boat with a Yamaha 2 stroke on the back has cost me very little, pretty much bomb proof. I guess it's a different story when you've got a 20 metre gin palace parked up at the Viaduct eh Beagle lol.
$50k sitting on the trailer, service yearly at $2-300., depreciation. Anchor warp is getting old and the trailer needs new bearings, Bloody sounder on the blink and I need a new GPS anyway. Oh and the flare package has expired, and while I'm in Burnsco, I'll just have a look at the new knife jigs!
But I digress!

[winner69]

ALWAYS WEAR A LIFE JACKET .....we want you to get home safely

[IAK]

$50k sitting on the trailer, service yearly at $2-300., depreciation. Anchor warp is getting old and the trailer needs new bearings, Bloody sounder on the blink and I need a new GPS anyway. Oh and the flare package has expired, and while I'm in Burnsco, I'll just have a look at the new knife jigs!
But I digress!

Ha ha I just bought a new fish finder/chartplotter Lowrance HDS-7 Gen3. It's absolutely superb especially the free Navionics charts. The fish haven't got a chance.:t_up:

[Beagle]

Depends what type of boat it is. My 6m aluminium Surtees boat with a Yamaha 2 stroke on the back has cost me very little, pretty much bomb proof. I guess it's a different story when you've got a 20 metre gin palace parked up at the Viaduct eh Beagle lol.

Back in the day before I went OTT I had a Stabicraft 759 and with hindsight it was a really awesome sea boat. Ugly as sin but stable as anything and that's what counts ! I have my eye on one of these one day...they look like they can handle themselves pretty well...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oXpgvfwlHco No matter how rich we think we are going to get in the long run with OCA there's one indisputable fact that should never be forgotten...you can't take your money with you when your time is up so you might as well enjoy some of it before you get too old !

[IAK]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oXpgvfwlHco No matter how rich we think we are going to get in the long run with OCA there's one indisputable fact that should never be forgotten...you can't take your money with you when your time is up so you might as well enjoy some of it before you get too old !

Truer words were never spoken.

[RupertBear]

Hmm I appear to have been bitten by the top up bug and OCA is now my largest holding...:eek2: I must confess to feeling a tad anxious about this when a Bear with sharp claws, no relative of mine, may be on its way if not already here and some are saying cash is king... :mellow:

[Beagle]

Hmm I appear to have been bitten by the top up bug and OCA is now my largest holding...:eek2: I must confess to feeling a tad anxious about this when a Bear with sharp claws, no relative of mine, may be on its way if not already here and some are saying cash is king... :mellow:

This is my top pick for 2019...so if one were to choose one share to have an oversized allocation, I believe this is the one ! (But as much as the value screams at me I will stick to my fundmental somewhat conservative asset allocation strategies because they give me a bit of peace of mind in these volatile times).
I guess as you get a bit older one learns that peace of mind is also a valuable commodity :)

[couta1]

Hmm I appear to have been bitten by the top up bug and OCA is now my largest holding...:eek2: I must confess to feeling a tad anxious about this when a Bear with sharp claws, no relative of mine, may be on its way if not already here and some are saying cash is king... :mellow: Forget about that other Bear, this is a 5 year plus wet and forget hold, anything else is just temporary noise.

[dr_]

Forget about that other Bear, this is a 5 year plus wet and forget hold, anything else is just temporary noise.

Agreed, filter it out all temporary noises, looked in to your bottom drawer for 4+ years, in meantime enjoy 5+% divi in coming years...... patience is your reward....

[RupertBear]

Many thanks Mr Beagle, Couta and dr for your posts, much appreciated.

Merry Christmas to you all :)

[Beagle]

And to you mate and all.

So the record reveals it ended dead flat on the year after starting at $1.05.

[winner69]

And to you mate and all.

So the record reveals it ended dead flat on the year after starting at $1.05.

There's next week ...might go to 110 plus if a few brokers pick it in their Top 5 Picks in The Herald

[Beagle]

There's next week ...might go to 110 plus if a few brokers pick it in their Top 5 Picks in The Herald

Hope springs eternal. Suppose at least we got 4.7 cents in dividends this year so that's a 4.5% return and represents an outperformance vs the NZX50.
Looking at the scorecard for the year we have the ranking as follows
SUM
OCA
RYM
ARV
MET

Looking forward if OCA pays 6 cps this coming year, up 28% from 2018 its on a yield of 5.7%.
Next divvy due is late February which isn't all that far away. I'm expecting something like 2.5 - 3.0 cps up from 2.1 cps last year.

[trader_jackson]

Hope springs eternal. Suppose at least we got 4.7 cents in dividends this year so that's a 4.5% return and represents an outperformance vs the NZX50.
Looking at the scorecard for the year we have the ranking as follows
SUM
OCA
RYM
ARV
MET

Looking forward if OCA pays 6 cps this coming year, up 28% from 2018 its on a yield of 5.7%.
Next divvy due is late February which isn't all that far away. I'm expecting something like 2.5 - 3.0 cps up from 2.1 cps last year.

Wow that must be close, I have OCA at 4.5% return and ARV at 4.2% total return (haven't looked at sum others like RYM - which must be somewhere in between that 0.3% gap?)... Funny how OCA and ARV started out at the same price they are today ($1.05 and $1.27 respectively on Jan 1) so the only difference is in the dividend... boy, they really both are dogs ain't they.

No worries, ARV should be back to 2nd on the list once its share price reverts back to the rock solid mark of $1.30 first thing Monday morning.

[Maverick]

Hope springs eternal. Suppose at least we got 4.7 cents in dividends this year so that's a 4.5% return and represents an outperformance vs the NZX50.
Looking at the scorecard for the year we have the ranking as follows
SUM
OCA
RYM
ARV
MET

Looking forward if OCA pays 6 cps this coming year, up 28% from 2018 its on a yield of 5.7%.
Next divvy due is late February which isn't all that far away. I'm expecting something like 2.5 - 3.0 cps up from 2.1 cps last year.

Some nice hopefull numbers there Beagle. It's good to get back to the business fundamentals looking so strong amongst the noise and attention of the global heavy selling.
I did a few numbers to add to yours.
All retirement stocks were at their peaks just short of 3 months ago. Between then and now they have all fallen by the following(dividend adjusted);
MET 20%
RYM 19%
SUM 16%
OCA 14%
ARV 2%
(FYI the Dow jones has fallen 15%over the same period)
So obviously ARV is the stand out winner here.My thoughts are that ARV had a report about a month ago which underpinned its actual business performance therefore underscoring the value of the share price.
Extrapolating that, then OCA should refloat to about $1.15-1.18 if it's results are equally as good. I personally believe they will be excellent.
Despite the current sell off, the company expansion and dividends are continuing as the juganaut it is. I'm off to bed to sleep very soundly.

[trader_jackson]

Wow that must be close, I have OCA at 4.5% return and ARV at 4.2% total return (haven't looked at sum others like RYM - which must be somewhere in between that 0.3% gap?)... Funny how OCA and ARV started out at the same price they are today ($1.05 and $1.27 respectively on Jan 1) so the only difference is in the dividend... boy, they really both are dogs ain't they.

No worries, ARV should be back to 2nd on the list once its share price reverts back to the rock solid mark of $1.30 first thing Monday morning.

ARV back to $1.28, not quite the rock solid mark, but not down like sum others OCA down to $1.04... so ARV and OCA have swapped positions? Will be interesting to see where things sit at years end... wouldn't it be embarrassing for that dog ol' ARV to beat the famed RYM and the premium-plus OCA, perhaps more horrifying is that it wouldn't be the first year it beat RYM either... in fact ARV will likely only be points behind the can-only-go-up SUM

In other news, I topped up on more OCA today at $1.04, already overweight in ARV

[macduffy]

What a strange post, t j.

What's your rationale for topping up on the "premium-plus" OCA? Or is it a case of hedging bets?

:confused:

[trader_jackson]

I topped up on ARV in March (at $1.19) and OCA now (at $1.04) - in both cases, I brought about a month or two out from a results announcement (in anticipation of good things)... After starting the year dropping, ARV started rising into annual result ($1.16 was as low as it got for ARV - has hovered around the $1.30 mark ever since that low point - whilst paying out over 4c in dividends). I'd like to think the downtrend, which has certainly been more pronouced and rapid than that of the ARV trend early this year, is now mostly over and the share price will at least hold going into half year results, before rebounding further after - market headwinds will obviously impact things, as it has for ARV (post annual results announcement it really should be $1.40+!)

OCA has smaller villages than any other listed operator, but most of them offer a premium offering - often unrivaled in location or at least service (offering/continuum of care) in that area. ARV and OCA are surprisingly similar - and as I have said for many years with ARV, the continuum of care component will become increasingly important going forward - I believe sum others are now racing to catch up in the care division, and finding it a bit harder than anticipated. Anyhow, with ARV stagnate at $1.30 ish and OCA at $1.20 ish, ARV was the better bet (in my view), but given ARV has done what it has done best for the past near 2 years - go virtually nowhere - and OCA has dropped significantly since then, OCA was the one I was happy to top up on the 24th of December.

There is no doubt, at the low $1 mark, OCA is the best bang for buck. I am sure you have all not forgotten I have been with OCA since day 1 (quite literally - brought at 82c on the first day of the IPO after missing out in the 79c offer price - a price I was first to mention on here)

OCA... (hopefully) the christmas gift that keeps on giving! Merry Christmas to all.

[winner69]

Cool ...the much revered Hamilton Hinden Greene have OCA in their Top 5 Brokers picks (NZ Herald)

Great stock pickers these guys I’m told

Should get the price over 110 again in the next week or so as mum and dads buy when the market has low volume

[SailorRob]

They didn't do so well with their 2018 picks, under performing the market by 20%. What am I missing?

[percy]

They didn't do so well with their 2018 picks, under performing the market by 20%. What am I missing?

I think 2018 was their best ever year....

[winner69]

I think 2018 was their best ever year....

And with OCA as well as ATM 2019 will see them be stars.

Didn’t they rubbish A2 recently ...and now pick it.

[percy]

And with OCA as well as ATM 2019 will see them be stars.

Didn’t they rubbish A2 recently ...and now pick it.

Sounds a certain ST poster?
I suppose the law of averages means they will get one right,and I expect it will be OCA.!

W69.New Year's good deed.Would you please let us know your neighbours bowling club mates' picks.

[winner69]

Sounds a certain ST poster?
I suppose the law of averages means they will get one right,and I expect it will be OCA.!

W69.New Year's good deed.Would you please let us know your neighbours bowling club mates' picks.

OK will do and will enter them in the comp for them

[Joshuatree]

Is it Wellington Bowling Club, Tanera Crescent Brooklyn? If so lets have them enter themselves and get them on the threads, give them their own voices, more the merrier.

[percy]

Is it Wellington Bowling Club, Tanera Crescent Brooklyn? If so lets have them enter themselves and get them on the threads, give them their own voices, more the merrier.

Surely the standard of posting is lower enough already.?......................lol.

[Ggcc]

I think OCA will outperform the market, but that could well be $1.10-$1.20

[Beagle]

I think OCA will outperform the market, but that could well be $1.10-$1.20

Interesting that no broker picked SUM RYM or MET despite the latter trading at a 25% discount to NTA. Business model for them to come under a little pressure in 2019 ?

[winner69]

Interesting that no broker picked SUM RYM or MET despite the latter trading at a 25% discount to NTA. Business model for them to come under a little pressure in 2019 ?

Sector not wanted by the brokers


OCA picked by who has turned out not to be the revered broker as I thought (and even you Beagle had some pretty derogoraty comments about them re A2 didn't yu?) and Forbar keep their commitment to Arvida being the house broker / promoter

Message in all that I think

[Beagle]

Sector not wanted by the brokers


OCA picked by who has turned out not to be the revered broker as I thought (and even you Beagle had some pretty derogoraty comments about them re A2 didn't yu?) and Forbar keep their commitment to Arvida being the house broker / promoter

Message in all that I think

I've had plenty to say about Forbar over the years and none of it has been complementary. House poodle for ARV so I suppose they had to choose that one. This year will be different for HHG and will be OCA's year. All those others brokers don't know what Coutts, Maverick, I and many of us others do...OCA's business model...you can't lose !

[trader_jackson]

Sector not wanted by the brokers


OCA picked by who has turned out not to be the revered broker as I thought (and even you Beagle had some pretty derogoraty comments about them re A2 didn't yu?) and Forbar keep their commitment to Arvida being the house broker / promoter

Message in all that I think

ARV, the stock that outperformed the index by over 2x and is currently sitting 2nd of the 5 listed healthcare stocks, performed admirably compared to 40% of the stocks forsyth picked in 2018, but you're right winner, they have to promote ARV don't they... even more worrying is the guys who managed to loose the most (20% under performance!!) have picked OCA as one of their picks... lets hope this year they don't (again) live up to the saying brokers only make you broker.

But hey, no worries, could be worse... OCA could have been like HGH and not been mentioned anywhere by anyone

[Joshuatree]

Surely the standard of posting is lower enough already.?......................lol.

Dont knock Imaginary friends, they have a voice too:t_up:

[Blue Skies]

Seems astonishing to me OCA & other retirement stocks so unloved at moment (esp in this environment when such a defensive share with good div) & wondering if it's been affected by a faulty sense of contagion from drop in Aust housing market. After all OCA (& others) hold significant property assets. However, although much but not all of the Auckland market is pretty flat at the moment, there's been very healthy rises in property values around the regions where OCA also has assets.

[Joshuatree]

Oceania putting ceiling track hoists in Tauranga, a far superior system, just hope they dont reduce staff anymore, they are stressed out enough as it is.

Why facilities are moving towards ceiling hoists | INsiteinsitemagazine.co.nz/2017/05/11/why-facilities-are-moving-towards-ceiling-hoists/ (https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=11&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjEl7-4ob_fAhXOfCsKHSqWAD8QFjAKegQICBAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Finsitemagazine.co.nz%2F2017%2F05% 2F11%2Fwhy-facilities-are-moving-towards-ceiling-hoists%2F&usg=AOvVaw28pYH0zxo81ZzxIPkbkQPC)

[rainey]

I think that the weakness in retirement shares is reflective of a possible decline in property prices which means people are tending to shy away

[Jantar]

I think that the weakness in retirement shares is reflective of a possible decline in property prices which means people are tending to shy away That decline in property prices is pretty well restricted to Auckland. The rest of the country is still climbing nicely.

[Beagle]

I think that the weakness in retirement shares is reflective of a possible decline in property prices which means people are tending to shy away

Agreed. All except ARV appear to have been tarred with the same brush without any thought for which companies are offering mainly discretionary lifestyle choices (only if people can sell their house for the right price) and which companies are providing more needs based services, (highly motivated vendors trading well down into a much smaller unit with a much lower average price / much higher margin of safety relative to their existing house). It'll be fascinating to see how this play's out over the next few years.

[percy]

Maybe,however, I feel it is more the rub off from the ongoing bad publicity the Australian retirement sector companies are receiving.
I would guess Australian fund managers would be avoiding the sector full stop.
We have seen this in the banking sector as well.
,

[Beagle]

Maybe,however, I feel it is more the rub off from the ongoing bad publicity the Australian retirement sector companies are receiving.
I would guess Australian fund managers would be avoiding the sector full stop.
We have seen this in the banking sector as well.
,

Good point and I would think that is definitely a factor. I suspect a lot of the selling of OCA has come from Australian institutions who took part in the recent placement at $1.10 and now simply want out of the sector and are selling almost indiscriminately.

[Xerof]

Good point and I would think that is definitely a factor. I suspect a lot of the selling of OCA has come from Australian institutions who took part in the recent placement at $1.10 and now simply want out of the sector and are selling almost indiscriminately.

Hmmm, it's been a fairly orderly distribution, no real panic selling IMO.

I think the comments regarding insto's reducing is probably near the truth, but IMO, they are making space for the next tranche to come into play. When that is I don't know, but for sure it's coming.

I believe they still very much like the sector, but are just playing the game until Macca are all out

[Bjauck]

I think that the weakness in retirement shares is reflective of a possible decline in property prices which means people are tending to shy away
Yes. Property sentiment has turned negative. Although retirement stocks will continue to make a resilient profit from churn and increasing demand for their products.

Unfortunately (for those who invest in real estate and real estate related shares) I don’t think It can get any better for NZ investor residential real estate. It already has a benign tax environment coupled with previous headwinds from declining interest rates.

Interest rates have already had the once-in-a-generation decline;The tax environment can only become more difficult (CGT/end of negative gearing/change to tax rulings etc.) Although If a CGT is introduced with an exemption for the family home, that could possibly give a relative boost to land values as kiwis divest some of their shares and business investments to over-capitalise their tax favoured owner-occupied main residences. Owner occupied housing could also be favoured over investing in KiwiSaver with its limited tax credit payment.

[777]

I think that the weakness in retirement shares is reflective of a possible decline in property prices which means people are tending to shy away

How would you explain the increase in price of listed property companies then?

[Beagle]

How would you explain the increase in price of listed property companies then?
If you don't mind me interjecting and opining on that one, (seeing as I have done 10001 rental property returns for clients over the years)
People have been chasing safe net yields. For example ARG a PIE is still yielding approx. 5.2% net (about 7.7% gross for anyone on a 33% tax rate) even after its good run in the last couple of months up from $1.07 to $1.20 today. Weighted average lease term is over 5 years.

Auckland residential property generally speaking after all costs might get you about 3% return before tax (2% after tax for an investor on a 33% tax rate) assuming the tenant actually pays the rent, doesn't trash the house or contaminate it with methamphetamine. The only reason to have ever been a residential landlord in Auckland, (capital gains), no longer applies and I think we are likely to follow Sydney and Melbourne down. Why anyone would bother with a Government looking to make life even harder for landlords with even more enhancements to tenants rights and a possible capital gains tax / and or ring-fencing of tax losses is beyond my comprehension but I guess some people simply feel more comfortable in bricks and mortar they control themselves because its what they've always done.

[Onion]

How would you explain the increase in price of listed property companies then?

Absolutely right 777.

Courtesy of Yahoo Finance... NZ property shares have held up quite nicely amongst the doom and gloom:

10224

[percy]

Absolutely right 777.

Courtesy of Yahoo Finance... NZ property shares have held up quite nicely amongst the doom and gloom:

10224
Surprises me.
Driving around ChCh I note the large number of vacant properties.To Lease/Rent signs everywhere.
Hillsborough,Sydenham,Moorhouse Ave,Wrights Road,Riccarton,Blenheim Road,Addington,Woolston,Papanui.Kaiapoi the same.
Space in Barrington Mall and Eastgate Mall appears half empty.

[traineeinvestor]

If you don't mind me interjecting and opining on that one, (seeing as I have done 10001 rental property returns for clients over the years)
People have been chasing safe net yields. For example ARG a PIE is still yielding approx. 5.2% net (about 7.7% gross for anyone on a 33% tax rate) even after its good run in the last couple of months up from $1.07 to $1.20 today. Weighted average lease term is over 5 years.

Auckland residential property generally speaking after all costs might get you about 3% return before tax (2% after tax for an investor on a 33% tax rate) assuming the tenant actually pays the rent, doesn't trash the house or contaminate it with methamphetamine. The only reason to have ever been a residential landlord in Auckland, (capital gains), no longer applies and I think we are likely to follow Sydney and Melbourne down. Why anyone would bother with a Government looking to make life even harder for landlords with even more enhancements to tenants rights and a possible capital gains tax / and or ring-fencing of tax losses is beyond my comprehension but I guess some people simply feel more comfortable in bricks and mortar they control themselves because its what they've always done.

This. Over the last few years, I've increased the rent and received less income due to rising costs (rates up 37% this year). Two percent net on current market value is about as good as it gets. The only reasons for holding residential property investment are (i) diversification + direct control over the asset and (ii) to make sure that you don't get priced out of the market if prices keep going up.

[mcdongle]

Surprises me.
Driving around ChCh I note the large number of vacant properties.To Lease/Rent signs everywhere.
Hillsborough,Sydenham,Moorhouse Ave,Wrights Road,Riccarton,Blenheim Road,Addington,Woolston,Papanui.Kaiapoi the same.
Space in Barrington Mall and Eastgate Mall appears half empty.

Yes..lots of builders in CHCH.cutting wages... laying off staff..one large developer I have been told has gone from 24 foreman to 9. Others have moved to Queenstown to find work......

[iceman]

This. Over the last few years, I've increased the rent and received less income due to rising costs (rates up 37% this year). Two percent net on current market value is about as good as it gets. The only reasons for holding residential property investment are (i) diversification + direct control over the asset and (ii) to make sure that you don't get priced out of the market if prices keep going up.

Agree with you and Beagle about residential property investment. But I do not agree about ¨direct control¨ being a good reason for holding as it is getting harder and harder to get rid of bad tenants, which in reality means you have no control for many weeks while bad tenants can trash the house and pay no rent. The current political thinking is that landlords have too many rights compared to tenants, which is a complete opposite to reality if you ask me. I have residential properties in 2 European countries and it is fair to say that compared tho them, Kiwi tenants are generally not very good. I do realise I´m generalising as I currently have a very good long term tenant in my only NZ residential property, but I´d probably sell if she moved out, rather than look for another good tenant. All too hard being residential landlord in NZ for a very average return.
p.s. we are probably a little of topic on this thread though :-)

[rainey]

How would you explain the increase in price of listed property companies then?
Retirement villages are dealing with individual citizens who have probably just sold a property. Commercial listed property companies are a slightly different category Beagle,s reply explains it far better than I can

[Bjauck]

....All too hard being residential landlord in NZ for a very average return.
p.s. we are probably a little of topic on this thread though :-) OCA and the other retirement companies are Landlords too with their occupants holding a licence to occupy. They have received tax rulings based on the NZ tax system and I think that means they have minimal tax burden (non-imputed dividends are paid)

You say NZ landlords receive an average return. However many overseas landlords have CGT to reckon with, so the leveraged capital gains that some NZ landlords have received would be taxable in many overseas jurisdictions. Obviously if the rental property has no debt then the capital gains would have been unleveraged but the NZ system encourages debt to be maximised which boosts property values consequently reducing the net taxable rent yield whilst increasing untaxed leveraged capital gains (over the long term house prices have risen faster than inflation and incomes)

[artemis]

..... Why anyone would bother with a Government looking to make life even harder for landlords with even more enhancements to tenants rights and a possible capital gains tax / and or ring-fencing of tax losses is beyond my comprehension but I guess some people simply feel more comfortable in bricks and mortar they control themselves because its what they've always done.

Yes, but the other side is a dramatic decline in new lending to residential property investors. (Reserve Bank.) Add that to existing rentals being sold and the flow on effect is significant. And means that if demand continues rents will increase and so will returns even if prices drop. Though ring-fencing of rental losses might push that day out for some.

[Beagle]

Surprises me.
Driving around ChCh I note the large number of vacant properties.To Lease/Rent signs everywhere.
Hillsborough,Sydenham,Moorhouse Ave,Wrights Road,Riccarton,Blenheim Road,Addington,Woolston,Papanui.Kaiapoi the same.
Space in Barrington Mall and Eastgate Mall appears half empty.
What has happened in Chch is very, very sad. Even nearly 8 years after the earthquakes the rebuild of infrastructure and iconic cultural landmarks such as the Cathedral is progressing slower than a snails pace. I think you are confusing commercial property in Chch with prospects elsewhere in N.Z and the smart money realises that it will probably take a generation for Chch to become a vibrant thriving city again just like it took Napier about the same time to thrive after their earthquake of 1931. People are risk averse with where they choose to live and you can't blame them for that. Auckland and Wellington commercial property has clearly been doing extremely well as you can see from companies listed on the NZX that concentrate their investments in those area's.

But I agree, we are well off track and overdue to get back to discussing the unique attributes of OCA's business model. Very low national average cost of a care suite and apartment and the churn rate especially on care suites is the key to highly satisfactory returns going forward. Worth noting however that it will take them about 6 years to transform their business model fully so this is probably the best investment time horizon. As the Mainland cheese advertisement says, "good things take time"

I for one am happy to wait at least that long because for one thing the yield of about 6% in 2019 and growing each year is far better than residential property, (and at the current price its arguably trading below normalised book value) and there's no work involved, you don't have to struggle to evict tenants and they're probably very unlikely to contaminate the units with methamphetamine or have parties where they trash the place !

My focus for 2019 is yield and the ability of a company to grow their yield going into 2020 and beyond. I really want 7% but this one fits the bill because of its ability to grow future dividends strongly. I have very low expectations of capital gains in my portfolio for 2019 and 2020. The market PE is still too high in my opinion. I will focus on value stocks which offer moderate to high sustainable dividend yields with growth in dividends a key focus and try and forget about making easy money (famous last words) from shares I think are stupidly cheap including this one. If the bull isn't already dead I expect it will need numerous trips to the vet (AKA much more world-wide artificial central bank stimulation) to keep it going. I think most central banks have used nearly all their tools already and have very few levers to pull, so I will focus on yield and try and forget about easy capital gains..(not easy for a Beagle to do as they love free easy lunches).

[Leftfield]

Although this article does not mention OCA it just needs a few stories like this to muddy the waters for retirement home investors.

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2018/12/30/376886/diana-clement

While I think such shares still have their place in a balanced portfolio, make sure you are not over exposed and DYOR. Take Care.

[winner69]

Although this article does not mention OCA it just needs a few stories like this to muddy the waters for retirement home investors.

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2018/12/30/376886/diana-clement

While I think such shares still have their place in a balanced portfolio, make sure you are not over exposed and DYOR. Take Care.

Lest we forget -the quicker the existing customers die or move on to care facilities, the fatter the profit.



Fatter the profit - richer we get as shareholders

[Leftfield]

Lest we forget -the quicker the existing customers die or move on to care facilities, the fatter the profit.
Fatter the profit - richer we get as shareholders

'Customer Satisfaction' is more fundamental than 'profit'. If a company is not providing customer satisfaction or loyalty, in the long term they will not make profits.

[couta1]

'Customer Satisfaction' is more fundamental than 'profit'. If a company is not providing customer satisfaction or loyalty, in the long term they will not make profits. The small minority that complain won't have any effect on short or long term profits, trust me nothing has changed over the near 30 yrs my wife and myself have been involved in the industry, there will always be that small vocal group.

[Beagle]

Although this article does not mention OCA it just needs a few stories like this to muddy the waters for retirement home investors.

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2018/12/30/376886/diana-clement

While I think such shares still have their place in a balanced portfolio, make sure you are not over exposed and DYOR. Take Care.

Thanks for sharing. Its nice to know there are still some villages that are happy to accept 60 year olds. (I might retire earlier lol). The Peninsula club on the Whangaparaoa is a very nice facility for those that want to live independently. It was originally a timeshare resort and has very spacious grounds and most units are single level with nice gardens. I helped my parents in the selection process and Mum has been very happy there for over 9 years now. Its independent living only but a nice place. Feel free to pm me if anyone wants more info.

I think there's a number of reasons MET are now trading at a significant discount to NTA...their company culture doesn't look especially healthy to me and then there's the fact that many of their older facilities have moisture ingress problems and the vast majority of their villages are independent living only...they really aren't making an effort to understand that increasingly the public want the full continuum of care model...I think MET is one company to seriously avoid in this sector despite it being an apparent bargain on a discount to NTA basis.

[minimoke]

...they really aren't making an effort to understand that increasingly the public want the full continuum of care model....End -to-end is the way to go. As folk get older they find it harder to move. And they are less inclined to drive distances. They are also becoming more realistic about potential end of life type options, especially if one partner goes down hill faster than the other. Having one in care and just down the road within the same community is a perfect option

[dobby41]

the vast majority of their villages are independent living only...they really aren't making an effort to understand that increasingly the public want the full continuum of care model...

I understand that the 'continuum of care' model is what makes Ryman a standout and very popular in Aus.

[Beagle]

I understand that the 'continuum of care' model is what makes Ryman a standout and very popular in Aus.

Yes absolutely but they are swimming against an outgoing tide in Australia with Melbourne real estate declining at pace. One of the further reasons I like OCA is they are sticking to N.Z.

[percy]

Not from what they are reporting.
Going gangbusters in Melbourne.

[Beagle]

Talk is cheap Percy. Let the numbers do the talking. Gangbusters growth is 50% underlying profit growth for OCA not 13% like RYM get !

[Leftfield]

Yes absolutely but they are swimming against an outgoing tide in Australia with Melbourne real estate declining at pace. One of the further reasons I like OCA is they are sticking to N.Z.

I have it on good authority that OCA have been looking v hard at entering the Aus market...... more likely NSW. Hopefully they can find some bargains in the lower Aus real estate values.

[100101]

I guess that when people realise that they will have lost $7000.00 a month off their capital at the 3 year point they will realise that there are other alternatives to these cash cows.
The certainly dont seem to be the answer to a comfortable retirement now.

[winner69]

Closed last year at 105 and closes this year at 107

Obviously not living up to the hype ......zillions of shares changed hand over the year and the price has hardly moved.

The only dog in my holdings

Hope 2019 is better, but my gut feel it’s going to be another year of going nowhere for OCA

How long do I hang in and hope ...but hope is not a strategy I’m told

[percy]

Closed last year at 105 and closes this year at 107

Obviously not living up to the hype ......zillions of shares changed hand over the year and the price has hardly moved.

The only dog in my holdings

Hope 2019 is better, but my gut feel it’s going to be another year of going nowhere for OCA

How long do I hang in and hope ...but hope is not a strategy I’m told

If in doubt,sell out.

[BlackPeter]

Closed last year at 105 and closes this year at 107

Obviously not living up to the hype ......zillions of shares changed hand over the year and the price has hardly moved.

The only dog in my holdings

Hope 2019 is better, but my gut feel it’s going to be another year of going nowhere for OCA

How long do I hang in and hope ...but hope is not a strategy I’m told

So did you buy at 105? I bought my first parcel in June 2017 at 85 cents and topped up at verious times after that (most belwo $1). The capital value of my shares increased so far by 14%. Not bad for an investment I started to build only 18 months go - and the shares payed me as well a handsome dividend (way above any bond yield I could get).

Can't complain.

But obviously - if one wants to complain than one can find for any share some arbitrary timeframe where the SP went sidewards or down.

[winner69]

So did you buy at 105? I bought my first parcel in June 2017 at 85 cents and topped up at verious times after that (most belwo $1). The capital value of my shares increased so far by 14%. Not bad for an investment I started to build only 18 months go - and the shares payed me as well a handsome dividend (way above any bond yield I could get).

Can't complain.

But obviously - if one wants to complain than one can find for any share some arbitrary timeframe where the SP went sidewards or down.

Sadly I’m not as astute as you are BlackPeter .....I’m under water here.

I only used the 2018 calendar year in the context of hoping calendar 2019 would be better.

[Raz]

Yes..lots of builders in CHCH.cutting wages... laying off staff..one large developer I have been told has gone from 24 foreman to 9. Others have moved to Queenstown to find work......

Christchurch is a several outlier to NZ currently, although it is has having a major impact to retirement villages being able to close sales there, it is slightly over 10% of the NZ market, adding in Auckland going flat that would be just under half the market, can see the why the sentiment in SP ?

[Beagle]

Closed last year at 105 and closes this year at 107

Obviously not living up to the hype ......zillions of shares changed hand over the year and the price has hardly moved.

The only dog in my holdings

Hope 2019 is better, but my gut feel it’s going to be another year of going nowhere for OCA

How long do I hang in and hope ...but hope is not a strategy I’m told

Probably wise for retired folk to concentrate on dividend yield going forward from here as I know you and I expect a tough 2019 and 2020. In that respect OCA is the standout of this sector and I am forecasting 6% gross yield for FY19 and the ability to grow that going forward shouldn't be overlooked. Often one years lazy labrador is next years speedy greyhound. Market just needs to build trust that their business model works. Trust is earned, it is never given. You will see the first real fruits of their business model with higher development level's in late July this year....remember that Rome wasn't built in a day :)

[Beagle]

I have it on good authority that OCA have been looking v hard at entering the Aus market...... more likely NSW. Hopefully they can find some bargains in the lower Aus real estate values.

Earl Gasparich told the Auckland branch of the NZ shareholders association at a briefing in Sept 2018 they had no intention of expanding to Australia as they have about 6-7 years expansion plans already in train for New Zealand...plenty on their plate here.

[Maverick]

Probably wise for retired folk to concentrate on dividend yield going forward from here as I know you and I expect a tough 2019 and 2020. In that respect OCA is the standout of this sector and I am forecasting 6% gross yield for FY19 and the ability to grow that going forward shouldn't be overlooked. Often one years lazy labrador is next years speedy greyhound. Market just needs to build trust that their business model works. Trust is earned, it is never given. You will see the first real fruits of their business model with higher development level's in late July this year....remember that Rome wasn't built in a day :)

Especially Sir Beagle, but of course Couta and Winner and countless others, I just want to thank you all for your efforts on this thread. You have summed up Oca so well that anyone with an interest in investing in this industry has all the facts and theories clearly laid out. Anybody out there with the capacity to think for themselves and ability to actually act on it, has had a pearl thrown to them.

Personally ,it has been good to consider the negative talk lately of a global recession, a falling OCA SP, property sales slowing, talk of potential Govt intervention and bad village experiences in the news. I do intentionally try to cool my enthusiasm for this particular company so it's good to consider it through negative lenses.

However , the compelling case for this company (as laid out here over and over )just keeps shinning through and , to me, none of the negatives stick when considering a 3-5year time frame. I'm in no hurry, at a growing, circa gross 4.5% dividend yield, I can wait forever.

Sadly ,there is just nothing new and juicy to say about OCA right now. Looking forward to the end of the month to hear of the milestones being munched through.

[trader_jackson]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12174755

I bet if any reference to Arvida was changed to Oceania (and the rest of the article worded exactly the same) this would have been posted and re-posted, discussed and further discussed, quoted and further quoted... but no, it is to do with that other listed dog... still very relevant to OCA, just not worth posting on the ARV thread as nobody looks at that anyway.

"We are very much the new boys and girls on the block having only listed four years ago and still creating a presence." - my goodness how to OCA feel then! Couldn't quite word this part the same I suppose

[winner69]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12174755

I bet if any reference to Arvida was changed to Oceania (and the rest of the article worded exactly the same) this would have been posted and re-posted, discussed and further discussed, quoted and further quoted... but no, it is to do with that other listed dog... still very relevant to OCA, just not worth posting on the ARV thread as nobody looks at that anyway.

"We are very much the new boys and girls on the block having only listed four years ago and still creating a presence." - my goodness how to OCA feel then! Couldn't quite word this part the same I suppose

Thanks t_j — a good article

They seem ‘hopeful’ that 2019 will be a good year in spite of some headwinds but they will competently overcome those.

[Ggcc]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12174755

I bet if any reference to Arvida was changed to Oceania (and the rest of the article worded exactly the same) this would have been posted and re-posted, discussed and further discussed, quoted and further quoted... but no, it is to do with that other listed dog... still very relevant to OCA, just not worth posting on the ARV thread as nobody looks at that anyway.

"We are very much the new boys and girls on the block having only listed four years ago and still creating a presence." - my goodness how to OCA feel then! Couldn't quite word this part the same I suppose

Eventually whether the government do or do not provide funding for all of the retirement sector, they will need to price in that nurses and staff they are short of get more money, or run the chance of being understaffed. Or course the funding will need to come off shareholders and get passed onto residents.

[Blue Skies]

Eventually whether the government do or do not provide funding for all of the retirement sector, they will need to price in that nurses and staff they are short of get more money, or run the chance of being understaffed. Or course the funding will need to come off shareholders and get passed onto residents.

This has come up before but had an interesting chat a few days ago to a very bright young PHD student working in field of A.I. robotics & health care, who mentioned some of the retirement organisations here definitely very actively pursuing developments in this area.
Not all about reducing costs (although that obviously is a benefit for shareholders), apparently research showing some health outcome advantages when mixed with appropriate staffing levels.

[bull....]

Although this article does not mention OCA it just needs a few stories like this to muddy the waters for retirement home investors.

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2018/12/30/376886/diana-clement

While I think such shares still have their place in a balanced portfolio, make sure you are not over exposed and DYOR. Take Care.

good article sums up the industry quite well. esp the raising the age to get the turnover. as we all know without the turnover the profits are not as good

[BlackPeter]

good article sums up the industry quite well. esp the raising the age to get the turnover. as we all know without the turnover the profits are not as good

Interesting that you only read one side of the story ... but no surprises here.


Wilkinson says when villages start the age of those buying in is younger than the average. As the first residents age the village cohort gets older and new residents are often friends of the now ageing original residents.


The average age increase in a retirement village might have very natural causes ... its like moving (young) into a new subdivision with many other young people and wondering afterwards why everybody ages (like you and me) every year by a year ...

Not all natural causes are due to corporate greed .....

[westerly]

good article sums up the industry quite well. esp the raising the age to get the turnover. as we all know without the turnover the profits are not as good

"raised the minimum age in line with other retirement villages"
Sounds like corparate speak to me -more like we realised we were missing out.

westerly

[Ggcc]

Interesting that you only read one side of the story ... but no surprises here.



The average age increase in a retirement village might have very natural causes ... its like moving (young) into a new subdivision with many other young people and wondering afterwards why everybody ages (like you and me) every year by a year ...

Not all natural causes are due to corporate greed .....

I agree. Many people aged in their 80's who would pass for 60 year olds. I have someone I know of who is 80 and works as security. He has no intention of quitting his job and as I said would pass for a 60 year old.

[Raz]

I agree. Many people aged in their 80's who would pass for 60 year olds. I have someone I know of who is 80 and works as security. He has no intention of quitting his job and as I said would pass for a 60 year old.

I would love to bump into some of these eighty plus year olds that look sixty..are they all so poor they are still working at that age?

[BlackPeter]

I would love to bump into some of these eighty plus year olds that look sixty..are they all so poor they are still working at that age?

My father in law turns this year 87 but is strong, fit and looks ways younger. He is still working in the saw mill which he used to own (It is now his son and his grand child running it). He is working these days mainly on a part time basis (30 hours per week), but worked full time through to age 85.

This is quite hard physical work, despite a lot of equipment - and he is certainly not working for the money (though they pay him for the hours ...). He says that he is going to die if he stops working ... and this is something he wants to delay as long as possible. BTW - he does love this work.

[percy]

I would love to bump into some of these eighty plus year olds that look sixty..are they all so poor they are still working at that age?

A lot of them are permanent residents at Nelson's Tahunanua Motor Camp.

[Beagle]

My father in law turns this year 87 but is strong, fit and looks ways younger. He is still working in the saw mill which he used to own (It is now his son and his grand child running it). He is working these days mainly on a part time basis (30 hours per week), but worked full time through to age 85.

This is quite hard physical work, despite a lot of equipment - and he is certainly not working for the money (though they pay him for the hours ...). He says that he is going to die if he stops working ... and this is something he wants to delay as long as possible. BTW - he does love this work.

I can understand part time work in one 70's, maybe 4-5 hours a day for 2-3 days a week if you love your work but your Dad does seem to be unusual. Did he never learn to enjoy boating, golf, fishing, travel, bowls, the theatre, fine wine / dining or simply relaxing ?

[Ggcc]

I can understand part time work in one 70's, maybe 4-5 hours a day for 2-3 days a week if you love your work but your Dad does seem to be unusual. Did he never learn to enjoy boating, golf, fishing, travel, bowls, the theatre, fine wine / dining or simply relaxing ?
Every person is different and some hate all those things considering them a waste of time. Their opinion might be “I want to be around the family as often as I can I may die tomorrow”.

[BlackPeter]

I can understand part time work in one 70's, maybe 4-5 hours a day for 2-3 days a week if you love your work but your Dad does seem to be unusual. Did he never learn to enjoy boating, golf, fishing, travel, bowls, the theatre, fine wine / dining or simply relaxing ?

Sure - but that's stuff he is doing in his spare time. He is quite good in playing chess, likes to go to concerts, he reads a lot (and often remembers more than I do) and he is voluntarily running a local archive. But this alone wouldn't satisfy him ... so he goes as well to work.

[Beagle]

Sure - but that's stuff he is doing in his spare time. He is quite good in playing chess, likes to go to concerts, he reads a lot (and often remembers more than I do) and he is voluntarily running a local archive. But this alone wouldn't satisfy him ... so he goes as well to work.

Interesting....I get the sense that there is plenty to discuss on this whole what to do to enjoy a satisfying and happy retirement, when do you plan to retire, what are people scared of with retirement and so on...probably a good thread for the off market section and some good lively discussion...in the meantime I found this with a quick net search http://retirement-cafe.com/Fears-about-Retirement.html

[whome]

BP, I want to be ... or continue to be ... exactly like your father in law. I love my work, it is stimulating, and keeps me in touch with new ideas and the younger generations. Plenty to do in spare time as well.. like looking forward to a 6 week gallop around Germany and Czech Rep. I did project work for 12 years and got bored as hell when one project ended and waiting for another.

[winner69]

WOW ...86 odd entrants picked OCA in the competition.

So many can’t be wrong ...it’s a sure thing

Wonder how many thought like fund managers and included the hot thing in their picks so they wouldn’t get too much out of sync with the majority.

[minimoke]

WOW ...86 odd entrants picked OCA in the competition.

.Hardly "odd". quite sensiple folks really.

[Maverick]

WOW ...86 odd entrants picked OCA in the competition.

So many can’t be wrong ...it’s a sure thing

Wonder how many thought like fund managers and included the hot thing in their picks so they wouldn’t get too much out of sync with the majority.
How would they know what the others picked?
I would have picked OCA OCA OCA OCA if I could , not that it will be this years best performer but it will I can't see any reason it wont be amongst the leaders.

[Beagle]

WOW ...86 odd entrants picked OCA in the competition. So many can’t be wrong ...it’s a sure thing

Maybe OCA should be called O.C.D. lol

[winner69]

Summerset should come out with some solid numbers this week

Might help their share price .....seems a bit beaten up at the moment.

[LAC]

Summerset should come out with some solid numbers this week

Might help their share price .....seems a bit beaten up at the moment.

I think SUM will have satisfactory results for the short term holders but will be good for long term holders. SUM share price will fall and I will acquire more. OCA share price will fall as a result of SUM's announcement and once again I will acquire more because come a few weeks time OCA will have a great result and the price will head north - I HOPE:)

[couta1]

Summerset should come out with some solid numbers this week

Might help their share price .....seems a bit beaten up at the moment. Has to be tomorrow, running it to the wire this time, what does that mean?

[bull....]

I think SUM will have satisfactory results for the short term holders but will be good for long term holders. SUM share price will fall and I will acquire more. OCA share price will fall as a result of SUM's announcement and once again I will acquire more because come a few weeks time OCA will have a great result and the price will head north - I HOPE:)

im picking oca to have good numbers this time

[Beagle]

Has to be tomorrow, running it to the wire this time, what does that mean?

It takes SUMwhat longer when you have to massage announcements through a number of public relations firms to see who can come up with the most creative solution to make a sow's ear look like a silk purse :D

[couta1]

im picking oca to have good numbers this time The numbers will be good but the real rerating will come after the full year result, then the market will wake up.Lol

[Beagle]

The numbers will be good but the real rerating will come after the full year result, then the market will wake up.Lol

Yeap full year numbers to be announced in late July are going to be so huge even Macca's executives will choke on their morning coffee and wonder why they sold any.

[winner69]

Yeap full year numbers to be announced in late July are going to be so huge even Macca's executives will choke on their morning coffee and wonder why they sold any.

...so half year numbers not going to be that good ...seeing we need to wait to July for the good numbers

[winner69]

It takes SUMwhat longer when you have to massage announcements through a number of public relations firms to see who can come up with the most creative solution to make a sow's ear look like a silk purse :D

What’s better ....massaged announcements for one or obtuse financials for the other

[couta1]

...so half year numbers not going to be that good ...seeing we need to wait to July for the good numbers The market is a slow learner.

[Beagle]

...so half year numbers not going to be that good ...seeing we need to wait to July for the good numbers

I'm looking forward to the half year announcement on 25 January mate and expecting solid growth in underlying earnings. One needs to appreciate however that the development program is weighted towards the second half. From memory about 272 units to be built this year in total and about 90 of these are in the first half.

[winner69]

I'm looking forward to the half year announcement on 25 January mate and expecting solid growth in underlying earnings. One needs to appreciate however that the development program is weighted towards the second half. From memory about 272 units to be built this year in total and about 90 of these are in the first half.

What is it with these village operators.

It doesn’t seem to matter if year end is May, June or December everything always seems ‘weighted towards the second half’

Probably just say that to make things sound better.

[Beagle]

By comparison they completed 25 units in 1H FY18 so about 90 (from memory) scheduled in 1H FY19 is a good uplift.
Good things take time mate.

[winner69]

Good news must be getting out there .....looks like we might through 108 today

Anybody reckon 120 by half year announcement?

[macduffy]

Good news must be getting out there .....looks like we might through 108 today

Anybody reckon 120 by half year announcement?

There's no doubt about it. Sharetrader sure moves the market in OCA!

;)

[Onion]

I'm guessing that the $1 bid I put in before Christmas is not going to be filled. :t_down:

[Beagle]

I'm guessing that the $1 bid I put in before Christmas is not going to be filled. :t_down:

Nice try but do you realise that Santa Claus is fictional :p

[winner69]

Number of development sales trend by half year from H117 with forecast (mine but based on reading stuff here) looks like this —

H117.....25
H217.....27
H118.....23
H218.....77
H119.....90
H219.....160


All says we are heading to greatness and becoming rich as

[Onion]

Nice try but do you realise that Santa Claus is fictional :p

What? And I was so good last year too.

[Beagle]

Number of development sales trend by half year from H117 with forecast (mine but based on reading stuff here) looks like this —

H117.....25
H217.....27
H118.....23
H218.....77
H119.....90
H219.....160


All says we are heading to greatness and becoming rich as

180 in 2H FY19 is my estimate.

[winner69]

180 in 2H FY19 is my estimate.

Jeez — that 180 is heaps more than I got

Those numbers plus resales would give total sales of 500 units....wow.

I’m feeling more confident now.

[winner69]

If they did achieve 500 total sales then underlying profit will be over $100m (last year $52m)

At $100m that’s an eps of about 16 cents

And the share price languishes under 110

Jeez, sounding more like beagle the more sums I do.

[Beagle]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/326631/290269.pdf

Yeap. See page 9 from Nov 2018 investor presentation - On track to deliver 272 units this year.
The split of about 90 and 180 is the answer I got to that question when I asked Earl Gasparich for the split after his presentation to the NZ shareholders association Auckland meeting late last year.
$1.08 is almost stealing eh winner, especially cum a 2.5 - 3.0 cent divvy next month :)

[Maverick]

Anybody notice ARV is now near its all time peak. This is OCA`s closet cousin. Just happened to have an "underpinning" great report come out a month ago which OCA is also about to do in 2 weeks.

[Beagle]

Jeez — that 180 is heaps more than I got

Those numbers plus resales would give total sales of 500 units....wow.

I’m feeling more confident now.


Anybody notice ARV is now near its all time peak. This is OCA`s closet cousin. Just happened to have an "underpinning" great report come out a month ago which OCA is also about to do in 2 weeks.

Hmmmm...talk like that makes me wonder if I have enough...already my #1 listed investment position.

[winner69]

Anybody notice ARV is now near its all time peak. This is OCA`s closet cousin. Just happened to have an "underpinning" great report come out a month ago which OCA is also about to do in 2 weeks.

Still can’t believe ARV’s greatest supporter in t_j didn’t include ARV in the picking comp ...his master stroke was including OCA

[Beagle]

I'm not at $100m underlying for FY19 YET but well worth noting that last year they made development profits of $21.1m on just 131 units and this year they have 272 so that alone on a linear basis suggest development profit will more than double this year. Add in slightly increased resales based on a 20% uplift last year in embedded value and I foresee about $75m underlying profit at this stage which is a profit rise of about ~ 50%, similar to last years stellar profit increase and gives about ~ 13 cps underlying profit.

Forward underlying PE is the cheapest I have ever seen for any stock in this sector at any stage including during the GFC. Looks extremely cheap to me especially cum a reasonable dividend next month.

[bull....]

mentioned 1.04 might bring out the buyers looks to be the case also around the 38% - 50% level retracement from the high. needs to reclaim above 1.08 to maintain the uptrend from listing i reckon

[winner69]

Beagle ....I think we are talking different things ...like you mention 131 units for last year while I’m using 100 for last year

You talking units delivered and I’m talking units sold. You keep reminding me no gains until sold eh.

Maybe by estimate of 250 new unit sales is a bit outrageous but whatever it’s going to be a huge number, especially relative to last year.

Good to see share price up today ......probably go up again tomorrow as well

[Beagle]

Beagle ....I think we are talking different things ...like you mention 131 units for last year while I’m using 100 for last year

You talking units delivered and I’m talking units sold. You keep reminding me no gains until sold eh.

Maybe by estimate of 250 new unit sales is a bit outrageous but whatever it’s going to be a huge number, especially relative to last year.

Good to see share price up today ......probably go up again tomorrow as well

Roger that :)

[bull....]

fair value is what the market decides obviously not around these levels , breaking down thru uptrend from when first listed now and the 1.08 didnt provide much support. next pivot support is 1 dollar also a 50% retracement level. 1.04 before then?

further to my post 1.04 was a pivot buy area as well and now short term oscillators are triggering buys as well as short term m/a. longer term ones need to improve to get a really bullish outlook.

https://www.investsmart.com.au/shares/asx-oca/oceania-healthcare-limited

How much cash does OCA generate through its operations?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/does-oceania-healthcare-limited-nzse-024250685.html

simply wall st provides analysis , just another thing you can opinion over.

[Joshuatree]

Beagle ....I think we are talking different things ...like you mention 131 units for last year while I’m using 100 for last year

You talking units delivered and I’m talking units sold. You keep reminding me no gains until sold eh.

Maybe by estimate of 250 new unit sales is a bit outrageous but whatever it’s going to be a huge number, especially relative to last year.

l

Thanks for the fact checking w69. Never know which beagle we are going to get on any given day.

[Beagle]

Thanks for the fact checking w69. Never know which beagle we are going to get on any given day.

No need for that sort of thing. We were simply coming from two different perspectives.

[see weed]

Happy new Year everyone. Have just rejoined the OCA club again in the last couple of weeks. Average buy of $1.067c.

[Beagle]

Happy new Year everyone. Have just rejoined the OCA club again in the last couple of weeks. Average buy of $1.067c.

Happy new year mate and welcome back on board. Nice timing :)

[carrom74]

Happy new Year everyone. Have just rejoined the OCA club again in the last couple of weeks. Average buy of $1.067c.
Welcome back ! I have jumped on the bandwagon today.Afterall the most picked stock in the contest...

[winner69]

Think a few punters finally had enough of Summerset and moving to OCA as their preferred choice in the sector

Might even get 115 this week and 120 by the time of the half year ....cool

[steveb]

Think a few punters finally had enough of Summerset and moving to OCA as their preferred choice in the sector

Might even get 115 this week and 120 by the time of the half year ....cool
Was there not some sustained selling from an institutional seller that was depressing the price?

If so they could well be back from hols next week,price might come under pressure again.

[Beagle]

Who knows what happens next week but long term I think many people on here can see a very bright future for this company.

[bull....]

Think a few punters finally had enough of Summerset and moving to OCA as their preferred choice in the sector

Might even get 115 this week and 120 by the time of the half year ....cool

we can tell from the recent decline when it broke support at 1.15 it was downhill too 1.04 with no clear supports that would become resistances . so one can assume 1.15 is the next resistance ( support once broken becomes resistance).

[steveb]

Who knows what happens next week but long term I think many people on here can see a very bright future for this company.
Totally agree with you,I would not be holding if I thought otherwise,I last topped up at $1.18 and don't regret it

[winner69]

we can tell from the recent decline when it broke support at 1.15 it was downhill too 1.04 with no clear supports that would become resistances . so one can assume 1.15 is the next resistance ( support once broken becomes resistance).

....and when 115 broken resistance becomes support eh

Looking good

[trader_jackson]

Totally agree with you,I would not be holding if I thought otherwise,I last topped up at $1.18 and don't regret it

I last topped up at $1.04 on the 24th of December, don't regret it either... OCA... the gift that keeps on giving!

[winner69]

I suppose that come January 25th if OCA come out with ‘not so good news’ we’ll have to rely on believing the whys and the weighted towards the 2nd half trick to sugar coat the result.

Could be an interesting day

[winner69]

we can tell from the recent decline when it broke support at 1.15 it was downhill too 1.04 with no clear supports that would become resistances . so one can assume 1.15 is the next resistance ( support once broken becomes resistance).

....maybe 104 will act as support again.

[dr_]

Well, bots are out today again. control manner price movement :cool: , no worries more oppt to load up....in 4-5yrs times this bots will be history.








Price
Volume
Time
Cond


108
106
16:38



108
107
16:37



108
106
16:36



108
101
16:36



108
107
16:35



108
107
16:34



108
106
16:33



108
107
16:32



108
106
16:31



108
113
16:30



108
110
16:29



108
110
16:27



108
122
16:26



108
110
16:25



108
174
16:23

[Beagle]

....maybe 104 will act as support again.

Was very strong until Australia opened...something of a pattern lately. Pretty clear where the selling is coming from in my opinion. Don't think they get the nuances of the business model or the fact that N.Z. real estate isn't falling off a cliff like Australia is. I think they just see that Royal commission of enquiry into retirement villages they're having over there and are shooting first and will ask questions, (about why they didn't hold this outstanding opportunity long term), later.

[macduffy]

Yes, but the entire retirement village sector in NZ is jumpy (I'm sick of that overworked word "volatile") at the present time. There may be an element of Aussie selling but not from Macca's, at least no movement in their Substantial Shareholding disclosure.

[see weed]

These so-n-so bots should be called manipulators:). This is such a popular pick for this year, we should all meet at a poncy bar somewhere with a big screen on the 25/1/19 to watch the results, chew the fat and drink beer:t_up:. Mav and Beags might be starters. :D.

[Beagle]

Yeah great idea and we could do meet in the morning and have some breakfast first https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=tse5Mkvo&id=73BA2B1E8B1A67C112FE21A93C3123B6BFEFB732&thid=OIP.tse5MkvouYzY4jlNrfDtgAHaHa&mediaurl=https%3a%2f%2fs-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com%2f736x%2f90%2f29%2f0e%2f90290e4bba9 32b942bd0c6a74ff73e63.jpg&exph=640&expw=640&q=beagle+eating&simid=608030551468410401&selectedIndex=0&ajaxhist=0 Mav reckons you can't have too many :lol:

[Hectorplains]

I see Windermere Village (Papanui) is finally underway. Two years behind schedule. The Court case makes an interesting read... and doesn't paint Oceania in a particularly good light...

[minimoke]

I see Windermere Village (Papanui) is finally underway. Two years behind schedule. The Court case makes an interesting read... and doesn't paint Oceania in a particularly good light...Do you have a link of judgement. As a neighbour I recall the fuss and how consent was declined first time around. As it should have been. A residential street was no place for a three storey commercial building.

[Hectorplains]

Do you have a link of judgement. As a neighbour I recall the fuss and how consent was declined first time around. As it should have been. A residential street was no place for a three storey commercial building.

Sorry, the minutes were not digitally published. RMA/2016/1377 if you want to follow it up.

[warren]

These so-n-so bots should be called manipulators:). This is such a popular pick for this year, we should all meet at a poncy bar somewhere with a big screen on the 25/1/19 to watch the results, chew the fat and drink beer:t_up:. Mav and Beags might be starters. :D.

Hello See weed. Really interesting to me (I try to be logical with a $) as to WHO is selling these huge numbers of OCA shares? At present the 2nd most traded share today on the NZ market at well over 650 000. This is following yesterdays huge tally of over 1.5 million. Why sell on the 10--11 Jan when, say 4.5%, is 1 month away? I suggest many or most of these sellers will have paid $1.10 plus brokerage? Scared Aussies would at least be logical but they must have little fortitude nor common sense.
The OCA care suits are an absolute winner --my own family experience proved it. A loved one was ill at 91 years old needing hospital care but still sharp in mind and loved a small degree of apartment independence. We were actually delighted to pay the $ and while our Mum didn't live long it was the BEST investment our family ever made.

[Hectorplains]

Hello See weed. Really interesting to me (I try to be logical with a $) as to WHO is selling these huge numbers of OCA shares? At present the 2nd most traded share today on the NZ market at well over 650 000. This is following yesterdays huge tally of over 1.5 million. Why sell on the 10--11 Jan when, say 4.5%, is 1 month away? I suggest many or most of these sellers will have paid $1.10 plus brokerage? Scared Aussies would at least be logical but they must have little fortitude nor common sense. .


The volume is within the norms of the last years trading for OCA. January volumes for NZX are always low. Even as a percentage of their free float, 2m is irrelevant. Odds are there's nothing to see here.

[bull....]

....maybe 104 will act as support again.

results will determine if its 1.04 or 1.15 , guess this will be the most discussed stock after the company result if its 1.15

[winner69]

results will determine if its 1.04 or 1.15 , guess this will be the most discussed stock after the company result if its 1.15

Results day going to be interesting ....will it be stunning/awesome/amazing or just solid but remember performance weighted to the second half

Whatever the number it wil make most on here happy as - the love affair wil continue no doubt.

All I can hope for is the hype is warranted and the result is stunning etc else i’ll be further underwater than what I am now.

[Maverick]

These so-n-so bots should be called manipulators:). This is such a popular pick for this year, we should all meet at a poncy bar somewhere with a big screen on the 25/1/19 to watch the results, chew the fat and drink beer:t_up:. Mav and Beags might be starters. :D.
Hi Seaweed, nice to hear from you again. Not too sure about the beer thing at 10.30 am and Auckland being 6 hrs away I'll have to take a rain check. How about the agm 3 years from now or when the price makes $2 ...which ever one gets there quicker...now that IS ramping

[Ggcc]

And down she goes again........ I thought we would be heading a little higher?

[trader_jackson]

And down she goes again........ I thought we would be heading a little higher?

Some say the grass is greener at ARV villages
and OCA is 'all talk' (comparatively speaking)... certainly is when it comes to sharetrader talk!

[winner69]

Some say the grass is greener at ARV villages
and OCA is 'all talk' (comparatively speaking)... certainly is when it comes to sharetrader talk!

ARV is a little star eh .... even if their presentations are a ****.

Probably less obtuse than those cool presentations that excites punters (investors) to talk so much

[Beagle]

Must admit last year's financials with all their references to IPO projections and pro forma notations were far from an easy read.
It should be far easier and clearer this year.

[Ggcc]

Some say the grass is greener at ARV villages
and OCA is 'all talk' (comparatively speaking)... certainly is when it comes to sharetrader talk!
I just think in good time we will see $1.20 again per share. Maybe in March

[Lewylewylewy]

March, just in time for the Brexit crash? ;)

[Ggcc]

March, just in time for the Brexit crash? ;)
You could well be right. An English friend mentioned “It seems those idiot politicians will lose out from brexit and they would rather have a big fat eu pension instead of fight for their countries people”. I disagree and think the British are too stubborn to work with a greater Europe

[winner69]

One good thing about the half year result is that H118 Underlying npat was a pretty low $19.9m

So as long as they beat that low figure everybody will think all’s honky dory ....remember it’s all weighted to second half of year

[Beagle]

~ $25m underlying profit would be a highly satisfactory result in my opinion. Good things take time. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qcILD9OJ2wg

[winner69]

~ $25m underlying profit would be a highly satisfactory result in my opinion. Good things take time. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qcILD9OJ2wg

Jeez ...you have low expectations beagle.

h118 new sales were a miserable 23 units and yet they made $20m

Aren’t the last half new sales going to be something like 90 odd.

Maybe i’m right ....as long as they beat last year’s interim it will be seen as a great result.

[Beagle]

Labour costs will be up, no question about that. Yes, I believe they are on track to "deliver" about 90 new units in the first half. Completion is one thing, sale of the units another. I'd rather have conservative expectations and be pleasantly surprised.

[percy]

Completion of new units is the difficult bit I watch for,so many variables.
If you have built good units, sales will come.

[Baa_Baa]

Completion of new units is the difficult bit I watch for,so many variables.
If you have built good units, sales will come.

They will indeed come, 'sales', will come in time of course, shrewd investors might be using that time to accumulate a decent holding while the SP is so lowly valued. It's like a gift no TA can give one, and no amount of FA or commentary can influence. Or so it seems.

Better to just be in the 'relatively early club' and accumulate as much as is reasonable and enjoy the ride from there. Long haul stuff is like that, ignorance to begin with, largely ignorant in between and then OMG enlightenment follows, but then it's too late for the uninvested.

I don't get the minutiae analysis of this sector, as a whole it is hot and has been for a while. People must like wondering, maybe academically whether such and such has a 0.x% something better yield than something else, but to be frank screw that, the whole sector is on fire and despite all that there's not a bad retirement company in the current climate and this is as good as any, maybe better, but who cares when you have a bit of all of them.

We should not split hairs so much imho, maybe focus on the overall sector opportunity. It's going to outperform most when few other sector opportunities seem apparent and the doom and gloom builds momentum.

[couta1]

They will indeed come, 'sales', will come in time of course, shrewd investors might be using that time to accumulate a decent holding while the SP is so lowly valued. It's like a gift no TA can give one, and no amount of FA or commentary can influence. Or so it seems.

Better to just be in the 'relatively early club' and accumulate as much as is reasonable and enjoy the ride from there. Long haul stuff is like that, ignorance to begin with, largely ignorant in between and then OMG enlightenment follows, but then it's too late for the uninvested.

I don't get the minutiae analysis of this sector, as a whole it is hot and has been for a while. People must like wondering, maybe academically whether such and such has a 0.x% something better yield than something else, but to be frank screw that, the whole sector is on fire and despite all that there's not a bad retirement company in the current climate and this is as good as any, maybe better, but who cares when you have a bit of all of them.

We should not split hairs so much imho, maybe focus on the overall sector opportunity. It's going to outperform most when few other sector opportunities seem apparent and the doom and gloom builds momentum. A very good post Baa Baa, I reckon your on fire with a post like this one.

[Lewylewylewy]

Any company whose business is around property will flourish while the property market flourishes. More so for the ones with large, cheap debt.

Im still keeping an eye on property (and driving factors like immigration and build rates), and interest rates on debt.

[winner69]

That was a good post by baabaa last night

Almost saying we should all chill out and not worry about this minutiae stuff.

In other words for the sake of our well-being should we ask for this thread to be closed down for a year.?

That way no one can can do minutiae stuff and we will all be better for it.....and heaps richer in a years time

[stones]

That was a good post by baabaa last night

Almost saying we should all chill out and not worry about this minutiae stuff.

In other words for the sake of our well-being should we ask for this thread to be closed down for a year.?

That way no can’t do minutiae stuff and we will all be better for it.....and heaps richer in a years time
And so say all of us

[Chanchay]

That was a good post by baabaa last night

Almost saying we should all chill out and not worry about this minutiae stuff.

In other words for the sake of our well-being should we ask for this thread to be closed down for a year.?

That way no one can can do minutiae stuff and we will all be better for it.....and heaps richer in a years time

I frequently read but rarely contribute to this thread. I am often baffled how the sky seems to be falling in on a movement of just a couple percentage points. I do feel like sharetrader users as a whole are very much invested in this stock and emotions run unusually high.

In contrast, no one seems to blink an eye when ATM moves 5% on an often daily basis

/shrug

[Joshuatree]

That was a good post by baabaa last night

Almost saying we should all chill out and not worry about this minutiae stuff.

In other words for the sake of our well-being should we ask for this thread to be closed down for a year.?

That way no one can can do minutiae stuff and we will all be better for it.....and heaps richer in a years time

One thing i learnt a long time ago was to set achievable goals w69. Here endith the lesson today.

[Beagle]

They will indeed come, 'sales', will come in time of course, shrewd investors might be using that time to accumulate a decent holding while the SP is so lowly valued. It's like a gift no TA can give one, and no amount of FA or commentary can influence. Or so it seems.

Better to just be in the 'relatively early club' and accumulate as much as is reasonable and enjoy the ride from there. Long haul stuff is like that, ignorance to begin with, largely ignorant in between and then OMG enlightenment follows, but then it's too late for the uninvested.

I don't get the minutiae analysis of this sector, as a whole it is hot and has been for a while. People must like wondering, maybe academically whether such and such has a 0.x% something better yield than something else, but to be frank screw that, the whole sector is on fire and despite all that there's not a bad retirement company in the current climate and this is as good as any, maybe better, but who cares when you have a bit of all of them.

We should not split hairs so much imho, maybe focus on the overall sector opportunity. It's going to outperform most when few other sector opportunities seem apparent and the doom and gloom builds momentum.

I don't think the sector as a whole is hot. SUM companies are struggling to sell their units and others and pouring hundreds of millions into the Melbourne market that's quite possibly in the early stages of a major correction which will impact both development and resale profits going forward. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.

Business model's of some companies offer more compelling apparent advantages going forward than others. Beagles will always try and use the maximum range of their sniffing ability to see what's going to offer the best feed in the future because who wants mediocrity in their investment portfolio...

Patience is your best friend with this one.

[macduffy]

It is curious how so much attention OCA receives on Sharetrader. Perhaps it reflects a lack of activity/interest in the rest of the tiny - and steadily shrinking - NZX: or speculation about the perceived overhang from the MacQ stake: or second thoughts about the much-hyped grey tsunami that is expected by some to guarantee the fortunes of all in the retirement sector. Whatever it is/was, taking a few steps back and looking for other topics in the market would be refreshing.

:cool:

[winner69]

It is curious how so much attention OCA receives on Sharetrader. Perhaps it reflects a lack of activity/interest in the rest of the tiny - and steadily shrinking - NZX: or speculation about the perceived overhang from the MacQ stake: or second thoughts about the much-hyped grey tsunami that is expected by some to guarantee the fortunes of all in the retirement sector. Whatever it is/was, taking a few steps back and looking for other topics in the market would be refreshing.

:cool:

Yep .....sniffing around petrol and aviation fuel would be more exciting

[couta1]

Yep .....sniffing around petrol and aviation fuel would be more exciting Or better still the smell of burning Methanol.

[percy]

Or better still the smell of burning Methanol.

The You Tube guys on Cleetus Mcfarland, seem to get a great deal of extra horse power with Nitro.?...lol.

[couta1]

The You Tube guys on Cleetus Mcfarland, seem to get a great deal of extra horse power with Nitro.?...lol. Yep that's the top fuel and seldom run in NZ, spark plugs barely make it through one quarter mile pass without disintegrating along with other parts of the engine.

[Beagle]

Yep .....sniffing around petrol and aviation fuel would be more exciting
Some "high" forecasted dividend returns from ZEL :) Consumer staple too...

[percy]

Consumer staple.??????????????????????????????

[iceman]

Consumer staple.??????????????????????????????

Sure is, hot pies, cold soft drinks and coffees. Staple food for many !!

[Beagle]

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/consumerstaples.asp
"Consumer staples are essential products, such as food, beverages, tobacco and household items. Consumer staples are goods that people are unable or unwilling to cut out of their budgets regardless of their financial situation. Consumer staples are considered to be non-cyclical, meaning that they are always in demand, no matter how well the economy is performing. People tend to demand consumer staples at a relatively constant level, regardless of their price".

Good quality late stage healthcare is also a consumer staple for people who need and can afford it, as is fuel, (unless you have an electric car in which case electricity is your fuel and also a consumer staple). Living in an independent retirement unit on the other hand, (such as that which is predominantly offered by SUM and MET) is a lifestyle choice people make, not a consumer staple and people will avoid it if the terms and conditions are not right. What is a need and what is a discretionary choice is a very important distinction to note when choosing which company you want to invest in especially if times get tougher and the real estate market comes under pressure.
Bad dog, sniffing which is best...must go and park at the airport and watch my planes and sniff the breeze when they takeoff...some dogs are known to like the smell of spent aviation fuel :) Consumer staples are not just food.

[percy]

You certainly give a new meaning to them.!!
I will stick with the accepted meaning.

[Beagle]

When Oil went to nearly $150 barrel late last decade and fuel hit record high's fuel consumption dropped just 2% on a national basis. I think this tells us all we need to know about how inelastic the demand for fuel is. If they doubled the price of your favourite food item do you think you'd still consume the same amount ?
Listening to CNBC the other day the cost of quality late stage care in the US is ~ $US9,000 per month approx. $NZ3,000 per week + GST. (Currently somewhere around half that here)

If the price of late stage, (say dementia care) doubled to that level in N.Z. over the next decade and you absolutely needed it would that put you off ? What would you do instead ?
On the other hand if the cost of voluntary independent living entry into retirement village (both the up front capex cost and weekly fees) doubled over the next decade would that put you off ? What would you do instead ?

What is a want and what is a need ? Yes, its really that simple.

[percy]

If I agreed with you,then both of us would be wrong....lol.

[Beagle]

Consumer staples are goods that people are unable or unwilling to cut out of their budgets regardless of their financial situation. Straight out of Investopedia...simple enough to understand.
Healthcare generally is also considered to have very good defensive investing properties, (financials do not). I rest my case.

[thestg]

Well it is good to see OCA looking after us shareholders.
My mother-in-law is in OCA care in Hastings but I’m now wondering if the residents are considered, as yesterday they didn’t prepare enough meals for lunch. They then said they could make sandwiches’ only to find they had nothing to put on them so a few residents appeared to have missed out on a meal.
Hope this is an isolated incident & won’t happen again. My largest investment is in this company & this is very concerning.

[Leftfield]

Well it is good to see OCA looking after us shareholders.
My mother-in-law is in OCA care in Hastings but I’m now wondering if the residents are considered, as yesterday they didn’t prepare enough meals for lunch. They then said they could make sandwiches’ only to find they had nothing to put on them so a few residents appeared to have missed out on a meal.
Hope this is an isolated incident & won’t happen again. My largest investment is in this company & this is very concerning.

Sorry to hear. Pretty alarming...... as the saying goes, "one bad apple can spoil the basket".
I hope you complained to management.

[Xerof]

Consumer Staples are clearly cyclical at OCA in Hastings

:p

[Ggcc]

Well it is good to see OCA looking after us shareholders.
My mother-in-law is in OCA care in Hastings but I’m now wondering if the residents are considered, as yesterday they didn’t prepare enough meals for lunch. They then said they could make sandwiches’ only to find they had nothing to put on them so a few residents appeared to have missed out on a meal.
Hope this is an isolated incident & won’t happen again. My largest investment is in this company & this is very concerning.
That is not good!! Oceania is my largest holding and I hope they will look after those residents. I invest not only for profit, but ethical reasons. I hope your mother in law is still enjoying her stay

[couta1]

That is not good!! Oceania is my largest holding and I hope they will look after those residents. I invest not only for profit, but ethical reasons. I hope your mother in law is still enjoying her stay Trust me these kind of stories can get very mixed up from the actual version of events more often than not.PS- I'd bet no one actually missed out on not eating anything.

[Ggcc]

Trust me these kind of stories can get very mixed up from the actual version of events more often than not.PS- I'd bet no one actually missed out on not eating anything.
Thanks!! Good to hear from an inside perspective. I don’t like hearing these things as well as many others I am sure

[thestg]

That is not good!! Oceania is my largest holding and I hope they will look after those residents. I invest not only for profit, but ethical reasons. I hope your mother in law is still enjoying her stay

All other care is exceptional. I am in Oz on holiday at for the next 2 weeks, but there is a residents meeting soon & the affected people are going to take it up with management. So far I have only found out that they had a new cook who hadn't ordered correctly.

[minimoke]

So far I have only found out that they had a new cook who hadn't ordered correctly.
How hard is it. 50 residents = 50 meals. 2 bits of bread = 100 bits for lunch. Not finding something to put in 2 bits of bread doesnt say much about the cooks abilities.

(Couta - it may be the residents doesnt miss a meal (of course they wont - they may miss the routine) but if there is a contract to provide three meals a day then that is the minimum service expectation which should be delivered on)

[bull....]

Notwithstanding the extreme over-valuations of Ryman and Summerset, it has been concerns over the residential property market that has investors in the retirement sector worried," Brown said.

maybe people switching to arv / oca ?

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12190600

[LAC]

Notwithstanding the extreme over-valuations of Ryman and Summerset

How did Devon Funds determine "Extreme over-valuations"

[percy]

[QUOTE=Beagle;743897]https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/consumerstaples.asp
"Consumer staples are essential products, such as food, beverages, tobacco and household items. Consumer staples are goods that people are unable or unwilling to cut out of their budgets regardless of their financial situation. Consumer staples are considered to be non-cyclical, meaning that they are always in demand, no matter how well the economy is performing. People tend to demand consumer staples at a relatively constant level, regardless of their price".

The S & P NZ Consumer Staple Index includes the following 17 NZ companies.I have included their weighting.[as of today]
ATM...73.15%
SML...6.19%
SCL...4.47%
FSF...4.22%
SAN...3.80%
DGL....2.61%
PGW....1.55%
CVT.....1.43%
NZK.....1.09%
GXH.....0.49%
FWL......0.38%
TGG......0.17%
MOA.....0.13%
ALF......0.06%
SEA......0.06%
PIL........0.01%.
What we learn is two fold.
a} what a consumer staple is,as it is referred to on sharemarkets..
b} A2 milk makes up 73.15 % of the index.

[Beagle]

Correction Percy. What we learn is how S&P went about making up an index on the NZX
Fact is there are very few companies on the NZX that produce true consumer staples, (staples are basic consumer goods that people are unable or unwilling to cut out of their budgets regardless of their financial situation). The absurdness of this particular index that S&P have constructed on the NZX is exemplified by not only the ludicrous weighting of ATM, which will purely be a function of its market capitalization, (not the extent to which consumer use the product relative to other index constituents) and that the vast majority of consumers would never even have heard of A2 milk let alone consider it an essential item, whereas there wouldn't be a single motorist on the road who is not aware of the essential need of fuel, (other than those who choose otherwise by using electricity).

Consider this, how much petrol would the average consumer buy per week ? How much A2 Milk would the average consumer buy per week taking into account most consumers have never heard of A2 milk ? EVF's make up less than 1% of the national fleet so which is an absolute consumer staple with no substitute, fuel or A2 milk ?

If you can't see it so be it...lets just agree to disagree.

[winner69]

Correction Percy. What we learn is how S&P went about making up an index on the NZX
Fact is there are very few companies on the NZX that produce true consumer staples, (staples are basic consumer goods that people are unable or unwilling to cut out of their budgets regardless of their financial situation). The absurdness of this particular index that S&P have constructed on the NZX is exemplified by not only the ludicrous weighting of ATM, which will purely be a function of its market capitalization, (not the extent to which consumer use the product relative to other index constituents) and that the vast majority of consumers would never even have heard of A2 milk let alone consider it an essential item, whereas there wouldn't be a single motorist on the road who is not aware of the essential need of fuel, (other than those who choose otherwise by using electricity).

Consider this, how much petrol would the average consumer buy per week ? How much A2 Milk would the average consumer buy per week taking into account most consumers have never heard of A2 milk ? EVF's make up less than 1% of the national fleet so which is an absolute consumer staple with no substitute, fuel or A2 milk ?

If you can't see it so be it...lets just agree to disagree.

Petrol might be missing but booze isn’t ...a real consumable staple

[percy]

Consumer staples is a section of the sharemarket which is known as such,and has its own index..
No amount of discussion is going to alter that.
It is a fact.

[peat]

The S & P NZ Consumer Staple Index includes the following 17 NZ companies.I have included their weighting.[as of today]
ATM...73.15%
SML...6.19%
SCL...4.47%
FSF...4.22%
SAN...3.80%
DGL....2.61%
PGW....1.55%
CVT.....1.43%
NZK.....1.09%
GXH.....0.49%
FWL......0.38%
TGG......0.17%
MOA.....0.13%
ALF......0.06%
SEA......0.06%
PIL........0.01%.
What we learn is two fold.
a} what a consumer staple is,as it is referred to on sharemarkets..
b} A2 milk makes up 73.15 % of the index.

Weird that not only honey CVT salmon NZK and beer MOA and wine DGL are considered consumer staples but that PIL is included as well = it makes a supplement for joint pain!!
So I have trouble agreeing with their choices on this index to be honest and wouldnt include A2 milk as a staple. though normal milk (FSF) would be.
Retirement living not really a consumption thing as a whole, though I guess elderly care services may be for old people who of course are making up increasing percentages of the population.

[percy]

I was surprised RBD was not included.
Offcourse overseas they include the likes of supermarkets,breakfast food manufacturers,Coca-cola,Procter & Gamble,Colgate-Palmolive etc.

[minimoke]

Consumer staples is a section of the sharemarket which is known as such,and has its own index..
No amount of discussion is going to alter that.
It is a fact.Doesnt make it a good or useful index. Seems to me just a bunch of loosely related companies stitched to sell in an enticing package to those who cant be bothered.



I was surprised RBD was not included. I would have thought that one would have the heaviest weighting.

[Beagle]

Petrol might be missing but booze isn’t ...a real consumable staple

lol believe it or not you can live without booze.

[percy]

[QUOTE=minimoke;744068]Doesnt make it a good or useful index.
Agreed,but posters now know what 17 companies make up S&P's NZ Consumer Staples index,and can correctly be called a consumer staple.

[minimoke]

lol believe it or not you can live without booze.LOL - where do you come up with such fanciful notions?

[Beagle]

Lets stop the silly nit picking of whether something meets the classic definition of a consumer staple for goodness sake...I have a view, Percy has a different view, various links I could provide support my view but lets move on because the whole point of this discussion on the OCA thread is for people to think about what is a consumer (I will take the word staple out of it) essential, product or service is to think about which companies are going to do well in good times and bad because what product they sell or what service they provide is perceived by the purchaser or user to be an "essential" item.

For 99% of motorists fuel is an essential item...there is no debate about this, the EV stat's speak for themselves. Fuel volumes declined just 2% last time the price of fuel went truly ballistic late last decade so this tells you all you need to know about how essential this consumer product is. Whether it meets some arbitrary dictionary definition of a consumer staple, to be honest I feel this is totally irrelevant.

Why did I raise this issue on this thread ? I maintain that quality late stage care is an "essential service" for those that can afford it but it probably isn't because there's lower standards of care the state will provide. In any event I think there's a vast tsunami of baby boomers who will want to have quality late stage care and I think OCA are well positioned to provide it to them.

LOL Minimoke...after this debate with Percy I definitely need a drink lol

[minimoke]

Why did I raise this issue on this thread ? I maintain that quality late stage care is an "essential service" for those that can afford it but it probably isn't because there's lower standards of care the state will provideSurely an "essential" is available to all, regardless of wealth. Otherwise its a "luxury"

[percy]

Lets stop the silly nit picking of whether something meets the classic definition of a consumer staple for goodness sake...I have a view, Percy has a different view, various links I could provide support my view but lets move on because the whole point of this discussion on the OCA thread is for people to think about what is a consumer (I will take the word staple out of it) essential, product or service is to think about which companies are going to do well in good times and bad because what product they sell or what service they provide is perceived by the purchaser or user to be an "essential" item.
For 99% of motorists fuel is an essential item...there is no debate about this, the EV stat's speak for themselves. Fuel volumes declined just 2% last time fuel went truly ballistic late last decade so this tells you all you need to know about how essential this consumer product is. Whether it meets some arbitrary dictionary definition of a consumer staple, to be honest I feel this is totally irrelevant.

Why did I raise this issue on this thread ? I maintain that quality late stage care is an "essential service" for those that can afford it but it probably isn't because there's lower standards of care the state will provide. In any event I think there's a vast tsunami of baby boomers who will want to have quality late stage care and I think OCA are well positioned to provide it to them.

LOL Minimoke...after this debate with Percy I definitely need a drink lol

It is not a debate between us.
It is a debate between you and S&P, and the likes of Vanguard,as to what is definded as a Consumer Staple.

[Beagle]

Surely an "essential" is available to all, regardless of wealth. Otherwise its a "luxury"

The average national price of a care suite at OCA according to last year's annual report was just $227K. I read today the average national house price has hit $680K.

Its this huge margin of comfort that makes me think OCA care suites will keep selling in good times and bad whereas for example if the Auckland medium house price drops from $900K to $750K will people still be buying SUM and RYM Auckland units for $800K ?

[minimoke]

The average national price of a care suite at OCA according to last year's annual report was just $227K. I read today the average national house price has hit $680K.That may be. But your average OCA Care Suite will be bought free of debt. Your average national house will be loaded with debt.

So to buy a suite (or any retirement villa type option) a person needs to pretty much clear of debt by the time the option is being looked at. That is an option that will only apply to the top X% of NZ's population.

The trouble with falling property values is that it releases, on sale, less capital to the owner - which tightens their options for their next buy. Then a care suite becomes an unaffordable luxury.

There remains an ongoing beacon of hope - and that is government (regardless of side) wants people out of the primary health system. We ought to see incentivisation into care suites - with the added benefit of freeing up residential housing stock.

[couta1]

lol believe it or not you can live without booze. Cholesterol is an alcohol and although too much of it is bad it is essential for survival and two thirds of your bodies total cant be influenced by diet or exercise.

[Beagle]

That may be. But your average OCA Care Suite will be bought free of debt. Your average national house will be loaded with debt.

So to buy a suite (or any retirement villa type option) a person needs to pretty much clear of debt by the time the option is being looked at. That is an option that will only apply to the top X% of NZ's population.

The trouble with falling property values is that it releases, on sale, less capital to the owner - which tightens their options for their next buy. Then a care suite becomes an unaffordable luxury.

There remains an ongoing beacon of hope - and that is government (regardless of side) wants people out of the primary health system. We ought to see incentivisation into care suites - with the added benefit of freeing up residential housing stock.

Given the average age of entry to a care suite is mid 80's I would have thought most people would be debt free by then ? Surely we're not all going to use up the equity in our homes with reverse equity mortgages because our kids are ratbags and don't deserve anything ? or are we lol

[winner69]

Beagle needs to empty his PM ...that’s discretionery

[Beagle]

Beagle needs to empty his PM ...that’s discretionery

Made space in my inbox for your opinion by PM mate which is something I consider an investing staple :)

[winner69]

Made space in my inbox for your opinion by PM mate which is something I consider an investing staple :)

Just wanting to send you some insider info ...no worries

[Beagle]

Just wanting to send you some insider info ...no worries

Woof woof, that's sounds good.

[minimoke]

Just wanting to send you some insider info ...no worriesThe thing with "inside" information its supposed to stay Inside. Now we all want to know, so you may as well spill the beans.

[dabsman]

I'm not sure about NZ property being mortgaged to the hilt - total housing lending approx 250 Billion and total housing value approx 1 Trillion so an LVR of 25% give or take