VGL - Vista Group.

[winner69]

Jeez, $1.05 is a long way down from recent high of $6.25

Must make it the buy of the century ...unless of course there actually was $5 of bull**** hype built into the $6,25

[King1212]

Spot on Master winner....I cut loss long time ago...Loss heap but could be worst. Lucky SUM and MET helped the loss....

[Joshuatree]

Whos optimistic things will go back to "normal" cinema user wise? This could be another nail in the coffin for them. They've combatted declining demand and increased comp(netflix etc) with multipexe's and advertising.Sheesh i had to go through 23 mins of ads a while back before the movie started! . I wont be back but hope to get to the small independent cinema rialto who dont have lots of ads. But ive been the only one there sometimes, or often only 3 or 4 others, sadly i think its an ailing industry here, maybe not in Asia but they are not big in China for one. Many human behaviours will change following covid i think cinema use could be one of them. Its also a gamble on when a vaccine arrives. Just my opinion.DYOR

[Cadalac123]

This pump and then capital raise seems to be a really familiar trend ... same happened with KMD .

Classic. Movie industry is getting smashed right now and while they’ve got some studio related revenue a lot is reliant on normal cinema visiting behaviour which I think won’t be ultra fast to resume around the world ..

[Leftfield]

Classic. Movie industry is getting smashed right now and while they’ve got some studio related revenue a lot is reliant on normal cinema visiting behaviour which I think won’t be ultra fast to resume around the world ..

And that is why they are raising cash....... and I'm sure when the tide turns VGL will be "well positioned."

Personally, VGL is the biggest loss in my otherwise healthy portfolio. I certainly didn't see Covid-19 on the horizon when I originally invested (and was slow to react when it did appear.) However, I take a long term view and consider VGL as a counter cyclical hold/buy (particularly at below $1.00.) Dollar cost averaging the way to go for me.

As always DYOR and take responsibility for your own decisions.

[Cadalac123]

And that is why they are raising cash....... and I'm sure when the tide turns VGL will be "well positioned."

Personally, VGL is the biggest loss in my otherwise healthy portfolio. I certainly didn't see Covid-19 on the horizon when I originally invested (and was slow to react when it did appear.) However, I take a long term view and consider VGL as a counter cyclical hold/buy (particularly at below $1.00.) Dollar cost averaging the way to go for me.

As always DYOR and take responsibility for your own decisions.

I think it’s solid at these prices for a long term hold!

[whatsup]

Whos optimistic things will go back to "normal" cinema user wise? This could be another nail in the coffin for them. They've combatted declining demand and increased comp(netflix etc) with multipexe's and advertising.Sheesh i had to go through 23 mins of ads a while back before the movie started! . I wont be back but hope to get to the small independent cinema rialto who dont have lots of ads. But ive been the only one there sometimes, or often only 3 or 4 others, sadly i think its an ailing industry here, maybe not in Asia but they are not big in China for one. Many human behaviours will change following covid i think cinema use could be one of them. Its also a gamble on when a vaccine arrives. Just my opinion.DYOR

Do they have any presence in the subcontenent, India Pakistan, et al ?

[peat]

I think its more risky even than it was before but still could return - it was a tad overpriced (just a tad) but had all the hallmarks of a well managed enterprise and doing a rights issue supports that view . But now its underpriced because of social distancing and movies.
I cant see how it wont take ages for movies to regain popularity and this will undermine the business plan even for the recurring revenue , maybe not straight away but it will eat it away.
Im seeing covid 19 as a bit of a social reset and this will only increase peoples desire to stay home and stream
Movies have been fighting the winds of change and those headwinds just got a lot stronger now So I'm a lot less keen than I was, despite respect for the management.

[peat]

Do they have any presence in the subcontenent, India Pakistan, et al ?

Their homepage https://vistagroup.co.nz/ will tell you they have business partners there.

[Leftfield]

Do they have any presence in the subcontenent, India Pakistan, et al ?

See the pic below.... their geographic spread is impressive IMHO. More details on their website (https://vistagroup.co.nz).
11311

[Sir Ten]

I think its more risky even than it was before but still could return - it was a tad overpriced (just a tad) but had all the hallmarks of a well managed enterprise and doing a rights issue supports that view . But now its underpriced because of social distancing and movies.
I cant see how it wont take ages for movies to regain popularity and this will undermine the business plan even for the recurring revenue , maybe not straight away but it will eat it away.
Im seeing covid 19 as a bit of a social reset and this will only increase peoples desire to stay home and stream
Movies have been fighting the winds of change and those headwinds just got a lot stronger now So I'm a lot less keen than I was, despite respect for the management.

Found this to be a reasonably useful summary of some of those headwinds... https://www.matthewball.vc/all/covidmovies

[peat]

Found this to be a reasonably useful summary of some of those headwinds... https://www.matthewball.vc/all/covidmovies

yeh I don't think its hard to find those reasons, however I've also read some a stunning history of movies saying they always bounce back as a form of popular entertainment. I may have linked it in this thread even.

[peat]

yeh I don't think its hard to find those reasons, however I've also read some a stunning history of movies saying they always bounce back as a form of popular entertainment. I may have linked it in this thread even.

yes I did

here is the quote

There's no real indication people will stop going to the movies, that it is a thing of the past, or that Netflix poses a major threat to cinema. While in the US movie ticket sales have fallen slightly over time (not including 2018), box office takings are growing strongly. Moreover, US cinema ticket sales still dwarf global Netflix subscriptions. The "death" of cinema has been prophesied four times since the onset of commercial cinema in the early-20th century. Three of these have proved toothless. Television, popularised in the 1950s, was the source of the first major panic, followed by home video in the 1980s and internet streaming in the 2000s. The fourth, the video game, has replaced movies as the dominant audio-visual medium, but involves sufficiently different practices to pose no real long-term threat to the viability of cinema.

and here is the link to the article

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/entertainment/news/article.cfm?c_id=1501119&objectid=12046909 which is from mid 2018

even if it takes a couple of years for people to return to cinema en masse that will be enough for Vista. I am trying not to under-rate this possibility.

[moimoi]

Boyo @ $1.05 for the SPP, huge discount on last trades @ $1.40 ( was there a pump here ? )

OMG..How sus is Tuesday's and Wednesdays Trading...

[RRR]

Vista share offer document mentions strong support from their lender ASB..

ASB have reduced margin lending facility for Vista from 60% to 0%

There is a hint there

[Leftfield]

Cap raise done and dusted (well for the institutions) holders to get 1 for 4 at around $1...... and so the SP climbs 19% today.

Is it window dressing, or is there some pent up demand? Whatever, nice to see some attention being focused on VGL again.

[Joshuatree]

Im over mainstream theatres for movies.Who wants to watch 23 mins of ads before the movie or pay close to $20 to find someone nearby on their ph and so destroying the "ride". But its streaming that i think is the big killer for real this time.Look at the new highs of Amazon, Netflix etc. Alot of those customers will be captured hereon and i dont blame them.

[Leftfield]

Im over mainstream theatres for movies.Who wants to watch 23 mins of ads before the movie or pay close to $20 to find someone nearby on their ph and so destroying the "ride". But its streaming that i think is the big killer for real this time.Look at the new highs of Amazon, Netflix etc. Alot of those customers will be captured hereon and i dont blame them.

ignoring your exaggerations to make your point (Barely 5 mins of ads OMHO, and I seldom pay more than $12.00,) I beg to differ.

I was a frequent movie goer pre Covid, and will return when possible even tho' I subscribe to Netflix.
Most of the cinema's in our area attracted good audiences across all age ranges (school holiday's just an example how embedded the treat of a movie is.) Watching on a small screen not an option for many.

[Cadalac123]

Im over mainstream theatres for movies.Who wants to watch 23 mins of ads before the movie or pay close to $20 to find someone nearby on their ph and so destroying the "ride". But its streaming that i think is the big killer for real this time.Look at the new highs of Amazon, Netflix etc. Alot of those customers will be captured hereon and i dont blame them.

Movie theaters are still still pretty packed. There's a big demographic spread that still go to movies. Heck I don't even like paying to see a movie but I still see them at the theaters for completely social reasons.

Agree with Left Fields point.

And disclosure not a holder

[Joshuatree]

But you are speaking from past experience and i question the word packed.Whats it going to be like in the future.Many things are going to permanently change imo. Cinemas will become redundant and thats not even taking VR into consideration.

[Cadalac123]

But you are speaking from past experience and i question the word packed.Whats it going to be like in the future.Many things are going to permanently change imo. Cinemas will become redundant and thats not even taking VR into consideration.

You're right and I could be wrong, it's a little bit of a weird one to forecast.

Alternative options to watch movies from home or so forth have always been present, and you can think about a doom scenario where people don't want to go out and socialise to the same extent after the current event. I disagree but it would be silly to say i'm wrong or right.

Furthermore, the market yields a strong demographic following from below 20s in particular. If people start becoming introverted on a mass scale after this event then sure no one will go.

I'm not holding but it'll be interesting to see how long it takes if VGL ever recovers.

[Sir Ten]

yes I did

here is the quote

There's no real indication people will stop going to the movies, that it is a thing of the past, or that Netflix poses a major threat to cinema. While in the US movie ticket sales have fallen slightly over time (not including 2018), box office takings are growing strongly. Moreover, US cinema ticket sales still dwarf global Netflix subscriptions. The "death" of cinema has been prophesied four times since the onset of commercial cinema in the early-20th century. Three of these have proved toothless. Television, popularised in the 1950s, was the source of the first major panic, followed by home video in the 1980s and internet streaming in the 2000s. The fourth, the video game, has replaced movies as the dominant audio-visual medium, but involves sufficiently different practices to pose no real long-term threat to the viability of cinema.

and here is the link to the article

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/entertainment/news/article.cfm?c_id=1501119&objectid=12046909 which is from mid 2018

even if it takes a couple of years for people to return to cinema en masse that will be enough for Vista. I am trying not to under-rate this possibility.




Thanks - it's also worth highlighting that the article I referenced was very US-centric, whereas much of Vista's growth is likely to come through Asia.

I declined the raise but was told it was 6x oversubscribed by my broker this morning...

... I'm happy to have passed , but starting to wonder whether the best approach is to just take a slice of every cap raise (if I can get a look in)

Really struggling to reconcile current market performance with economic outlook

[Joshuatree]

I know what you mean, seems many, every cap raise brings in euphoric punters making easy money with a sharp rise afterwards and easy arbitrage. It has to end in tears or im redundant in this game and need to spend my time elsewhere.Maybe its time to start thinking about sex, drugs, alcohol and downtempo music , they make much more sense then the share mkts atm.

[Joshuatree]

ignoring your exaggerations to make your point (Barely 5 mins of ads OMHO, and I seldom pay more than $12.00,) I beg to differ.

I was a frequent movie goer pre Covid, and will return when possible even tho' I subscribe to Netflix.
Most of the cinema's in our area attracted good audiences across all age ranges (school holiday's just an example how embedded the treat of a movie is.) Watching on a small screen not an option for many.

Thanks for denying me my experience NOT. ​The last time i went to an Event multiplex cinema I timed it ,23 mins of ads and trailers; and people on their phones during it. I know a guy who so incensed his cinema going experience was being ruined leaned over and grabbed someones phone and threw it down the aisle!:t_up: Cinema is dead to me other then the small independent theatre's but i will be ecstatic if my local independent theatre survives this covid disaster and opens again.

[peat]

That the problem with reckons and personal anecdotes.
Peoples views and experiences can be vastly different and ultimately as individuals or even groups or people it doesn't matter a tinkers cuss to the success or failure of the business/sector

Its like in the AIR thread people talking about how nice a flight was or wasn't on an AIR plane and ultimately it didn't matter. A black swan came along.

[Joshuatree]

Yes fair comment. Maybe younger goers will go back to the movies. BTW I dont advocate taking action with people using their phones during a movie other than a verbal reminder/request that its affecting others viewing enjoyment., but i can understand people frustration.

[Joshuatree]

By passing on VGL(craigs offered me plenty) i forsake a quick 44c a share gain so yeah what do i know.:( DOH

[tango]

Who is taking up their entitlement?

[Leftfield]

Who is taking up their entitlement?

FWIW have taken up mine. Averaging down. Taking a long term view on this one, tho' still in the red.

[emveha]

FWIW have taken up mine. Averaging down. Taking a long term view on this one, tho' still in the red.

Same. I found the directors' and senior management personal investment (30% pay cut, 4.7M$ in the raise) rather encouraging.

[tango]

Same. I found the directors' and senior management personal investment (30% pay cut, 4.7M$ in the raise) rather encouraging.

Ditto. I bought relatively high. I dollar cost averaged down at $1.10 so I figure I will take the full entitlement.

I know it is a long term hold. Good tech but some countries will take months before they open movie theatres and consumer behaviour will change but there should still be enough upside.

[RGR367]

Took only the full entitlement to average down but not the 40% more additional shares as my allocation for this stock has gone more than what I've budgeted for when I started buying into it. It's a big red on my portfolio right now.

[xlinknz]

By passing on VGL(craigs offered me plenty) i forsake a quick 44c a share gain so yeah what do i know.:( DOH

How do you figure a quick 44c?, they're offering at 1.05, current buy price as I type is 1.20


Took only the full entitlement to average down but not the 40% more additional shares as my allocation for this stock has gone more than what I've budgeted for when I started buying into it. It's a big red on my portfolio right now.

Yes big red in my portfolio too and a somewhat tempting longer term buy (as surely they cannot go down further?)

The question for me is the money I would spend on their offer better spent on a different holding especially bearing in mind their 25% discount offer is not as attractive as it was since the price dropped from $1.4 to being today at $1.2?

[peat]

Who is taking up their entitlement?

I will take up my very small amount. Thankfully.

[peat]

Good companies come up with solutions!!

Vista GroupInternational is offering its cinema customers a technology package to helpthem reopen, including managing self-serve, contactless transactions andticketing to achieve social distancing, free of charge

The software forces a two-seat spacing between groups or individuals withina row as well as alternating rows to create six feet (2 metres) of socialdistancing behind and in front of customers.

[Jaa]

Good companies come up with solutions!!

Vista GroupInternational is offering its cinema customers a technology package to helpthem reopen, including managing self-serve, contactless transactions andticketing to achieve social distancing, free of charge

The software forces a two-seat spacing between groups or individuals withina row as well as alternating rows to create six feet (2 metres) of socialdistancing behind and in front of customers.

Still could be sitting in the same seat as someone else a few hours earlier. All while sitting in aircon, not recommended. Cinemas and Vista will come back but they will lag most other sectors.

Better to invest in home entertainment. Netflix, Sonos, Amazon etc. Maybe even Sky?! :eek2:

[NZSilver]

Yeah good company, no debt, growing earnings (with hiccups as they go to saas model), nice future opportunities. Was very richely priced (I got caught out and bought to high) results and covid has smashed it now. Pretty good value at 1.05. I sold some at 1.23 and took up all my rights + extra to cover it. This company will have a good futures, but it will be a long hold before it's price appreciates, as with many other companies at the moment. Good lesson to be careful buying companies at high valuations without doing full research.

[Leftfield]

Cap raising deemed a success. Hopefully it's onwards and upwards from here!! (ps Agree with NZ Silver on lessons learned!!!)

"Vista Group International Limited (Vista Group) is pleased to advise that it has successfully completed the retail entitlement offer component (Retail Entitlement Offer) of its 1 for 4.37 pro-rata non-renounceable accelerated entitlement offer (Entitlement Offer). A total of NZ$65 million will be raised under the Entitlement Offer and the institutional placement announced on 16 April 2020".

[dibble]

(ps Agree with NZ Silver on lessons learned!!!)
.[/FONT][/I]

Hang on, you both appear to like the company's fundamentals, not sure how more research would have prepared you for a pandemic. Plenty of profitable companies look expensive even now e.g. ATM is hardly without risk from macro issues e.g. a livestock disaster, yet plenty of buyers above $19.
What would you have done differently?

[Leftfield]

Hang on, you both appear to like the company's fundamentals, not sure how more research would have prepared you for a pandemic. Plenty of profitable companies look expensive even now e.g. ATM is hardly without risk from macro issues e.g. a livestock disaster, yet plenty of buyers above $19.
What would you have done differently?

Good Question........(and you are right.) So here's my story FWIW.

I was late to discover VGL. I liked their International spread, sound management and reputation. However I think the timing of my first purchase was wrong (although the TA indicators looked awesome in Mid 2019 - see pic.) Buy the trend.... and in mid 2019 the long term trend was UP.

11517

That said, I did well by taking only a small stake. I'm a big into buying in instalments. Small nibbles.

What I didn't foresee was a large slowing of revenue as the company went to a SAAS model. This was badly received by the market and the SP dropped 30% with a 'death cross' occurring in Sept 2019.

When faced with such a TA 'death cross' I usually sell out and wait for the trend to change. However rather than selling out at this stage, I chose to average down. In hindsight this was a wrong decision.

Then Covid 19 came and I was again blindsided as the SP dropped when "lock-downs" became common internationally. All of a sudden the once sound International Movie and Entertainment market was hit hard.

Faced with all this, I've been buying at the current SP levels and 'averaging down.' I suspect it will be 1 - 2 years before I start getting a decent return on my shares.

As I've said before, it isn't all woe. VGL is rare red ink in my portfolio (in which my av returns are still well above NZX50 averages) and I'm well placed to sit this one out. I still believe this company has great prospects. Time will tell.

[dibble]

Good Question........(and you are right.) So here's my story FWIW.

I was late to discover VGL. I liked their International spread, sound management and reputation. However I think the timing of my first purchase was wrong (although the TA indicators looked awesome in Mid 2019 - see pic.) Buy the trend.... and in mid 2019 the long term trend was UP.

11517

That said, I did well by taking only a small stake. I'm a big into buying in instalments. Small nibbles.

What I didn't foresee was a large slowing of revenue as the company went to a SAAS model. This was badly received by the market and the SP dropped 30% with a 'death cross' occurring in Sept 2019.

When faced with such a TA 'death cross' I usually sell out and wait for the trend to change. However rather than selling out at this stage, I chose to average down. In hindsight this was a wrong decision.

Then Covid 19 came and I was again blindsided as the SP dropped when "lock-downs" became common internationally. All of a sudden the once sound International Movie and Entertainment market was hit hard.

Faced with all this, I've been buying at the current SP levels and 'averaging down.' I suspect it will be 1 - 2 years before I start getting a decent return on my shares.

As I've said before, it isn't all woe. VGL is rare red ink in my portfolio (in which my av returns are still well above NZX50 averages) and I'm well placed to sit this one out. I still believe this company has great prospects. Time will tell.

Jolly good answer thanks. So more of a lesson around trading strategy. Not been an easy 2 months to balance tactics with gut feel whilst trying to read what one can into the splattering of runes.

[Leftfield]

Nice to see VGL's new shares trading today at a 38% premium on the recent cap raise offer price. Happy I took it up.
Be interesting to see how it plays out from Thursday.

[Leftfield]

Another step into Europe. https://www.nzx.com/announcements/353639

Slow burner this one.

[Hoop]

Left field I did nearly the same as you..Reading your 8th May #290 post echoed my trading..Buying then accumulating into the uptrend (nibbling).
Got caught out with the sudden unexpected drop as it was so sudden I had no time to unload..

Vista reverting back to SaaS status is something you don't normally expect to happen. Normally as a company matures it moves away from Saas towards a product value/dividend yielding company..Any move back to Saas status also causes a revert back of valuation methodology which affects share price..I personally think Vista was rather naughty, they should have fore-warned with a market disclosure of their intentions to that structural change back to a Saas company status. They must have known it was a price sensitive decision..

The day of the announcement was a market bombshell which saw the sudden market revaluing Vista resulting in the share price near instant 40% fall...NZX did not react so Vista got away without even a rap on the knuckles..Unless there is a leak (rumour or insider trading) TA would not signal a warning..there was no leak and this TAer got caught in this price fall as well...Then it was Covid and I must admit I ignored that TA warning ..At the beginning, the world outside China (me too) disbelieved the severity of the virus in relation to the unprecedented draconian measures taken severely affecting the economy.....TA said sell and I didn't..Final score TA 1 Hoop 0

An opposite comparison can be seen with Pushpay with it's normal structural change away from Saas status towards maturity creating a change in the company value methodology resulting in the shareprice to triple..PPH disclosed it's strategy intentions well in advance but the market disbelieved until it become evidential...

I'm with Left field, I think Vista still has a future..
Disc: VGL (+ new shares) PPH PLX MSR = 5% stocks ...95% in Fixed term investment

[Leftfield]

Thanks Hoop.

I see you are 95% out of the market. I would be interested to learn how you intend to decide when/if to re-enter? What signals are you keeping an eye on?

[Hoop]

Thanks Hoop.

I see you are 95% out of the market. I would be interested to learn how you intend to decide when/if to re-enter? What signals are you keeping an eye on?
At the moment I am short term bullish but I am extremely bearish longer term which is an emotion I must try to control. That's hard to do when I believe in the 4 R's Economic Recession Management scenario..Run Rescue Recession Recovery and we are only in the rescue phase.It all depends on how well the Governments and Central Banks manage the rescue phase as to how deep the recession is going to be...so far the powerful countries governments and central banks (incl NZ) are playing the same management game as per textbook..so I have faith we may avoid a very deep recession as long as everyone sticks to the plan.

The recession is not here yet, neither is the recession effects on our share markets but when the recession is here and operating for some time, the signals I use are "ducks lining up in a row" method..I have 20+ "ducks". I weigh some "ducks" more valuable or less valuable due to their correlation coefficient value..this is where being either a statistician or a Chartist or both comes in very handy..
My two favourite ducks which have a 100% accuracy rate (so far) are inverted yield curve (a recession predictor) and copper price uptrend reversion during the depths of the recession (share market bottoming out predictor)..Now all this may look easy but market manipulation with economic computer models sort of makes signals rather confusing these days. For example copper has already reverted to an uptrend so does that suggest the recession was a brief sharp covid effect and is now over or is the worst yet to come and copper will signal the next uptrend reversion...
I think somewhere on ST I have posted my ducks..I will revisit my files and repost them.

In the meantime download and read Russell Napier's Anatomy of the Bear..He has many end of bear signal predictors..

With regard to Vista....Vista has no history as it was founded (2014) during the last Bull cycle so I'm not terribly sure how badly it would perform in a Recession within an Indexed Cyclical bear cycle..As it's customers are cyclical companies and strongly effected by economic periods, I can only assume Vista could be rather exposed during recessionary periods...
Disc: Have VGL

[Leftfield]

Thanks for posting Hoop. I thoroughly respect your charting expertise and was genuinely interested to see how you are managing the current very volatile market signals. So thank you for sharing your brief strategy.

FWIW I'm currently 80% invested and in the past I have used TA to successfully dodge the worst effects of the 1987 crash. (In those days I used meta stock.) However, these days I am finding;
1.) There used to be a saying that when USA (S&P etc) sneezed, then NZ catches a cold (in 1987 it was more like pneumonia!) However IMHO NZX these days is slowly becoming more disconnected and more unique in its reactions, and as I am 100% invested in NZ I tend to watch local signals more closely.
2.) I'm currently finding the NZX50 and S&P average market TA monitoring is less relevant and the TA monitoring of individual companies is more relevant.
For example in the recent COVID downturn the TA signals being sent by ATM versus the NZX50 index were different. As a result I tend to make my decisions specific to individual companies rather than an index based decision. (VGL being my only failure in this respect.)

It will be interesting to one day compare notes on how we both fare in these tricky market conditions.

[Hoop]

Yes the indexes seem to be less relevant in recent years...The success of the very large stocks (FAANG) have hijacked the S&P index..A similar thing happened in NZ with the dot-com bubble burst when Telecom distorted the NZSE40 index..
With this Covid effect I've found that many stocks had the same dramatic drop followed by a dramatic bounce including the NZX50 index..the bounce is interesting as the poorer performing (struggling) stocks have a poorer bounce...sadly Vista is in this category which is a worry.
Your ATM example is something unbelievable..looking at ATM's chart you would have to ask "didn't anyone tell ATM what was happening in the world"..

Yes we must compare notes someday

[Louisphan]

What happened with this stock guys?

[Leftfield]

What happened with this stock guys?

Don't know.... but loving it!!

Those who took up the recent cap raise offer are up around 90% on their allocation! :t_up:

ps This was a $6.00 stock less than a year ago.

[Cadalac123]

Don't know.... but loving it!!

Those who took up the recent cap raise offer are up around 90% on their allocation! :t_up:

ps This was a $6.00 stock less than a year ago.

Good value pickup. Especially at $1 well done Left Field!

[peat]

What happened with this stock guys?

it went down a lot
then up a bit

[Leftfield]

Reason for the recent surge in the SP?? Judge for yourself ( Hint; the Market likes it.)

“If this proposal proceeds in its current form, we expect to achieve annualised cost savings of between NZD$12 million and $15 million from this reorganisation.”

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/354134

Disc- Holding and much happier!! :t_up:

[Louisphan]

Its just insider information :)). But fine share market always like this.

[emveha]

Vista Cinema has released the Cinema Re-opening Kit to really strong demand
with the Dynamic Social Distance seating capability very popular and
already in use in cinemas that have opened in Texas.

Good thinking, Number 1!

[peat]

Its just insider information :)). But fine share market always like this.

actual insider information (as opposed to someone believing something is insider information) is the most powerful signal there is!

[Leftfield]

Was it 'pump n dump' or just over-enthusiasm?

In the meantime I'm happy to see TA improving and happy to watch from the sidelines.

[Cadalac123]

Was it 'pump n dump' or just over-enthusiasm?

In the meantime I'm happy to see TA improving and happy to watch from the sidelines.

Still some gap to fill so wouldn’t be surprised if it’s just some pullback

Disc not holding

[sb9]

Was it 'pump n dump' or just over-enthusiasm?

In the meantime I'm happy to see TA improving and happy to watch from the sidelines.

Could well be some big boys taking profits from recent cap raise...

[Louisphan]

actual insider information (as opposed to someone believing something is insider information) is the most powerful signal there is!

It went down 6.5% at the end today after up nearly 20% in the morning. Really can't play the game with the big fish and insiders Lol.

[King1212]

That is the problem with all the newbies around....buying without look at the fundamentals.

Article on the NZ herald. Very bleak outlook...most cinemas are not operating...

[Cadalac123]

That is the problem with all the newbies around....buying without look at the fundamentals.

Article on the NZ herald. Very bleak outlook...most cinemas are not operating...

On the other hand, a great trade in the last two days!

[Hoop]

That is the problem with all the newbies around....buying without look at the fundamentals.

Article on the NZ herald. Very bleak outlook...most cinemas are not operating...
There is a serious disconnect these last few months..basically the market couldn't care a sh1t about fundamentals.... its all sentiment..

Louisphan, it aint the big fish or insiders at play here..its the state of the market..There were a lot of small trades today in Vista, 1990 in total, so that about an average of $2000 a trade..kinda looks like smaller fish to me..The madness of today's price swing suggests the inexperienced fish jumped in at opening (amateur hour) and push the price to unrealistic levels before lunch ..+20% up on not flash news (some was old news too) does make you wonder, eh... and when the tide turned the wiser fish started profit taking..It crossed my mind to sell this morning and buy back in tomorrow...successful swing trading is a skillful game, and part of the skill is to realise when the price gets to an obscene high (or low) and trade accordingly..I think a 20% rise before lunch was rather obscene..and there are a lot of smart experienced investors out there there that make a living out of taking these opportunities..
There are a lot of tricks to the trade..swing trading, bounce trading, momentum spikes, breakouts, pattern breaks, stop /loss, value buying (fundamental opportunities), etc..Experience investors knows them all

Big fish and insider trading often get the blame, but with most NZ stocks being illiquid its the emotional small reef fish that create short term price volatility.
below is an example of trading depth around closing time..the small stuff still operating ...

[Cadalac123]

There is a serious disconnect these last few months..basically the market couldn't care a sh1t about fundamentals.... its all sentiment..

Louisphan, it aint the big fish or insiders at play here..its the state of the market..There were a lot of small trades today in Vista, 1990 in total, so that about an average of $2000 a trade..kinda looks like smaller fish to me..The madness of today's price swing suggests the inexperienced fish jumped in at opening (amateur hour) and push the price to unrealistic levels before lunch ..+20% up on not flash news (some was old news too) does make you wonder, eh... and when the tide turned the wiser fish started profit taking..It crossed my mind to sell this morning and buy back in tomorrow...successful swing trading is a skillful game, and part of the skill is to realise when the price gets to an obscene high (or low) and trade accordingly..I think a 20% rise before lunch was rather obscene..and there are a lot of smart experienced investors out there there that make a living out of taking these opportunities..
There are a lot of tricks to the trade..swing trading, bounce trading, momentum spikes, breakouts, pattern breaks, stop /loss, value buying (fundamental opportunities), etc..Experience investors knows them all

Big fish and insider trading often get the blame, but with most NZ stocks being illiquid its the emotional small reef fish that create short term price volatility.
below is an example of trading depth around closing time..the small stuff still operating ...

well said..............

[King1212]

Well...little fish said....put in the drawer. ..

[Hoop]

Well...little fish said....put in the drawer. ..
:) thats where mine is....could be another drop tomorrow...seems to be a global softening today (tonight NZtime) with Asia losing steam and Europe falling into the red as I type..Maybe this global rally is going to have a breather tomorrow..Vista being a high beta stock with shallow depth at the moment might have felt this change of wind as the day wore on and the smart investors sniffed the wind and realised their profits..who knows??
Anyway I think this rally (global) is based on large amounts of available cash (thanks to large QE) and the rosy anticipation that when the lock down ends everything will once again be hunky dory...time will tell ..eh?

I am watching the rosy anticipation part of the equation rather than fundamentals...My drawer may empty out very quickly if sentiment heads south....
Disc VGL PLX PPH

[kiora]

I like the sector you have there Hoop :)
Bugger I missed the last leg up for PPH,I've been out of them twice :) but needed the dosh for other things

[Hoop]

I like the sector you have there Hoop :)
Bugger I missed the last leg up for PPH,I've been out of them twice :) but needed the dosh for other things

...Hmmm PPH a big pull back after it big rally..could be a opportunity to re-enter..eh

Yeah most of my eggs are in the digital/data management software companies..the sector is getting crowded but so far so good..Like all companies its their customers that make the revenue...For Vista's sake.. I hope the movie industry has had a bloody good shake up and now sees the world as a different place and there is a need to innovate at a faster pace...they have been a tardy lot in the past..eh..hard to imagine only 12 years ago most cinemas were still using film projectors

[Louisphan]

There is a serious disconnect these last few months..basically the market couldn't care a sh1t about fundamentals.... its all sentiment..

Louisphan, it aint the big fish or insiders at play here..its the state of the market..There were a lot of small trades today in Vista, 1990 in total, so that about an average of $2000 a trade..kinda looks like smaller fish to me..The madness of today's price swing suggests the inexperienced fish jumped in at opening (amateur hour) and push the price to unrealistic levels before lunch ..+20% up on not flash news (some was old news too) does make you wonder, eh... and when the tide turned the wiser fish started profit taking..It crossed my mind to sell this morning and buy back in tomorrow...successful swing trading is a skillful game, and part of the skill is to realise when the price gets to an obscene high (or low) and trade accordingly..I think a 20% rise before lunch was rather obscene..and there are a lot of smart experienced investors out there there that make a living out of taking these opportunities..
There are a lot of tricks to the trade..swing trading, bounce trading, momentum spikes, breakouts, pattern breaks, stop /loss, value buying (fundamental opportunities), etc..Experience investors knows them all

Big fish and insider trading often get the blame, but with most NZ stocks being illiquid its the emotional small reef fish that create short term price volatility.
below is an example of trading depth around closing time..the small stuff still operating ...

You have so many good points that the newbie should learn and understand in NZ or any share market.

Just to be more clear, this specific situation of VGL were totally insider's game. The share went up 20% one day before the new out. It is only insider who know the information bought the share at that time for sure. The small fish have two option, join the game or standing out and look. Smart/ experienced Investor may join and sell quickly or standing out and watch the game, but I believe many of inexperienced or gamble investors will join the game.

Many say "News out, SELL!" or "Don't play what you do not understand", I follow the suggestion this time, but to be honest not sure I can control myself next time :)).

[tomm]

The shares price hold up very well despite the trend from the Us today.

[Quantitative Easing]

The shares price hold up very well despite the trend from the Us today.

Lol only 8% down.

[King1212]

We might in the different world...are u in a la la land..? We are in Aotearoa Bru...

[tomm]

Lol only 8% down.
what 8% downnnn , look at it now :-p

[tango]

Looking at this article on film release delays maybe VGL has a long road ahead of it...

https://stuff.co.nz/entertainment/film/300065050/james-cameron-delays-avatar-sequels-for-a-year-due-to-covid19

[Leftfield]

VGL was the only red ink in my portfolio and as I watch the relentless march of Covid throughout the world, I've changed my mind on the long term value of holding onto VGL.

In short, I'm fearful for the short term 1-3 year future of the movie industry.

As a result, I've sold my remaining shares (at a small loss) and will put the money into safer shares. GLH.

[tango]

VGL was the only red ink in my portfolio and as I watch the relentless march of Covid throughout the world, I've changed my mind on the long term value of holding onto VGL.

In short, I'm fearful for the short term 1-3 year future of the movie industry.

As a result, I've sold my remaining shares (at a small loss) and will put the money into safer shares. GLH.
I wish I had done the same...

I was influenced by my broker. Craigs are still very bullish on the long term prospects for VIsta. Vista have a moat but it’s useless when the world is closed!

I probably should have sold at a loss when the shares went up to nearly $2
I bought at around $5. I topped up at $1.05 but it’s still a massive loss.

I was quite hopeful about the shares until the second wave of coronavirus started in Australia. As for the USA… That’s ridiculously out of control.

[RupertBear]

I wish I had done the same...

I was influenced by my broker. Craigs are still very bullish on the long term prospects for VIsta. Vista have a moat but it’s useless when the world is closed!

I probably should have sold at a loss when the shares went up to nearly $2
I bought at around $5. I topped up at $1.05 but it’s still a massive loss.

I was quite hopeful about the shares until the second wave of coronavirus started in Australia. As for the USA… That’s ridiculously out of control.

I am in the same situation as you aboard this sinking ship tango. Wish I had gotten out but I didnt :rolleyes: And would also take a massive hit if I sold out now so.....I will ride it out I guess :(

[tango]

I am in the same situation as you aboard this sinking ship tango. Wish I had gotten out but I didnt :rolleyes: And would also take a massive hit if I sold out now so.....I will ride it out I guess :(
Realistically the starting point is what can I get for it now and what could I buy with that which might be a better investment. But it’s hard not to cling to the hope that this can come right.

It might be better to bail but I should at least have bailed 80 cents higher. Sigh. Generally my worst investments are the ones that Craig’s recommenced. The ones I have done on my own are better. I think the only good investment that Craigs recommended was ports of Tauranga. Don’t even get me started on ZEL

[RupertBear]

Realistically the starting point is what can I get for it now and what could I buy with that which might be a better investment. But it’s hard not to cling to the hope that this can come right.

It might be better to bail but I should at least have bailed 80 cents higher. Sigh. Generally my worst investments are the ones that Craig’s recommenced. The ones I have done on my own are better. I think the only good investment that Craigs recommended was ports of Tauranga. Don’t even get me started on ZEL

hmm yes Craigs got me onto Vista as well and GTK and that didnt end well for me either but thankfully I got out with only a small loss with that one...sigh

[Leftfield]

I wish I had done the same...

I was influenced by my broker. Craigs are still very bullish on the long term prospects for VIsta. .....

I've had bad experience with Craig's........ however it made me realise Brokers have their own agenda. It was a good learning curve. Always DYOR and take responsibility for your own decisions.


I am in the same situation as you aboard this sinking ship tango. Wish I had gotten out but I didnt :rolleyes: And would also take a massive hit if I sold out now so.....I will ride it out I guess :(

It's not the end of the world. Years ago I was in PEB. Rode it up and doubled my money.... didn't sell then..... and instead got trapped as the SP fell. Fortunately I got out with a small profit, but not much.

Point is..... I got out at about 60c.
Over the next few years my money was in ATM and doing v well, while PEB kept falling to around the 6c level! :scared: If I had left my money in PEB it would have seriously devalued.

Thing is I kept PEB on my watch list.

Earlier this year I started noticing PEB kept turning up in the 'top daily gainers list' as the SP rose from the low.

When PEB reached the 'golden cross' level on the TA at about 15 - 20c, settling into a definite up trend (see chart below,) I started buying and now hold an XXOS holding (much bigger than my original holding) at an av price of around 40c.

Here's the TA chart, and you don't often see such a strong BUY signal, and such a strong uptrend as PEB at this time.

11811

Forgive me for rambling on, but sometimes when a share is on a deep down trend like VGL, it is best to quit your losses, get out and get your money working for you elsewhere else ( even cash in the bank is not silly at the moment,)........ but always keep an open mind, I still v much like VGL and as soon as the TA trend changes to a 'golden cross' I will be back in, (just like I was with PEB.)

All this JMHO..... as always DYOR and take responsibility for your own decisions.

[RupertBear]

Thanks for that Left Field, a very helpful post :)

[tango]

Thanks for the tips Left field.

I have never got into TA and I have always been more of a Buffett fan (our favourite holding time is forever) which generally has served me well but I need to reevaluate all of my Craigs inspired purchases. At the time I was unwell and gave them a portion of money to manage. Those are by and large my worst performers. Gentrack, Vista, Z (recommended for dividends), etc. Some of the shares I purchased on their recommendation but most of my international shares and a few New Zealand shares are held under Craigs management through their nominee. Maybe I will just sell up and have them return the money. I need to check the tax implications of selling US shares first. Overall Craigs were not a success and I have no reason to believe that will change. They even recommended the recent IFT SPP which made sense given it was at a relatively high point.

[peat]

i only had a very small holding of VGL , purchased at an incredible 5.60 and now obviously down a huge percentage.
I took up the SPP , and recently tripled my holding.

I thought about the movie industry as being something that has survived numerous setbacks over the last hundred and twenty years or so, and it has always come back despite TV, despite pirates, despite affordable large screens in the homes. I believe it will survive in the long run though we could be talking a good few years. So I have no immediate expectations of being in the black but because even now it it still quite a small holding I can wait.

Don't forget Vista has a lot of recurring revenue to tide it over, and has done the right things to get it through these tough times.

[Joshuatree]

A bit like airports, how long before AIA is profitable again, 3-5 years?

[Hoop]

Nice post Leftfield...
In this instance taking buy advice using TA instead of listening to the so-called financial experts would've saved you some money..
Seeing these posts makes me think VGL could be a contrarian buy :)..

Most people think of the future with today's and past perspectives instead of thinking today with future perspectives..(90% of people are natural Linear Thinkers (https://hbr.org/2017/05/linear-thinking-in-a-nonlinear-world))

Successful companies change and innovate when it's present environment become unhealthy...We just have to figure out if VGL is one.

Disc: Have VGL shares

[tango]

@hoop you make a good point about the recurring revenue. I believe VGL have adapted by creating software to allocate seats that allow for social distancing and there was some talk about adapting software for pay for view TV but I’m not sure about that.

[Lease]

Nice post Leftfield...
In this instance taking buy advice using TA instead of listening to the so-called financial experts would've saved you some money..
Seeing these posts makes me think VGL could be a contrarian buy :)..

Most people think of the future with today's and past perspectives instead of thinking today with future perspectives..(90% of people are natural Linear Thinkers (https://hbr.org/2017/05/linear-thinking-in-a-nonlinear-world))

Successful companies change and innovate when it's present environment become unhealthy...We just have to figure out if VGL is one.

Disc: Have VGL shares

"thinking today with future perspectives".

Very good point.

[peat]

A bit like airports, how long before AIA is profitable again, 3-5 years?

a lot of growth was factored into the price as well (at the highs), also true for AIA .... and that (super growth) will take a lot longer if ever now, which does affect price quite a lot. (though less in AIA's case I guess because it has more tangible assets)




Successful companies change and innovate when it's present environment become unhealthy...We just have to figure out if VGL is one.

Disc: Have VGL shares

I would suggest that it is and has shown itself to be so firstly by achieving the world domination that it has (exaggeration for effect - - but I think it is indisputably up there in the global industry)
Secondly as an example I posted earlier there latest s/w release included covid-19 isolating seating patterns to assist cinemas that were operating. But you only need to read their news announcemnents to see they are always moving and growing.

[Leftfield]

Nice post Leftfield...
Seeing these posts makes me think VGL could be a contrarian buy :)......

Of course...... trouble with contrarian buys is that you are still locking your money away for an unknown time in a down trend.......waiting, waiting, waiting.... for the BIG UPWARD trend change.

IMHO it is much better to sit on the sidelines with your money either safe or working well in other investments and only enter again when the SP Trend starts moving up, and the volumes traded start showing some excitement.

Besides, there are heaps of 'contrarian buys' out there..... THL, AIR, RAK etc to name a few.

FA tells me what to buy/sell.

TA tells me when to buy/sell it. I don't care about 'picking the bottom' I would rather buy in to a sustained upward trend, preferably signalled by a 'golden cross'. (PEB is a classic example of this at the moment.)

Any share in my portfolio showing a prolonged downtrend or a prolonged sideways trend usually gets axed.

It would be boring if we all traded the same way (after all that's what the market is about.)

[tomm]

I just think : it is trading at less than 30% or 20% compare to ATH , And important of all : 60% of it's income is garanteed by it's customers despite covid-19. You work the math.

[peat]

I just think : it is trading at less than 30% or 20% compare to ATH , And important of all : 60% of it's income is garanteed by it's customers despite covid-19. You work the math.

As I said a lot of BS (blue sky or bull sh1t - your call) built into that ATH

[Leftfield]

I just think : it is trading at less than 30% or 20% compare to ATH , And important of all : 60% of it's income is garanteed by it's customers despite covid-19. You work the math.

OK I did my maths (never a strong point,) and if VGL's ATH was $6.11 cf today's SP of $1.32.

Sssoooo today's SP is actually closer to 70 - 80% below the ATH??

And yes, some of VGL's revenue may be 'guaranteed'......as long as cinema's are able to pay or stay open.

As long as Covid lingers I expect headwinds. BUT as soon as the downtrend changes I'll be back.

[tomm]

OK I did my maths (never a strong point,) and if VGL's ATH was $6.11 cf today's SP of $1.32.

Sssoooo today's SP is actually closer to 70 - 80% below the ATH??

And yes, some of VGL's revenue may be 'guaranteed'......as long as cinema's are able to pay or stay open.

As long as Covid lingers I expect headwinds. BUT as soon as the downtrend changes I'll be back.
Look at the current I agree with your point, and the vaccine is just around the corner.

[tango]

Look at the current I agree with your point, and the vaccine is just around the corner.

The vaccine isn’t guaranteed. So far, drugs are only able to reduce symptoms. They have yet to come up with a vaccine that prevents people from getting COVID-19.

An article in the herald is expecting the cinemas to remain quiet for the rest of 2019. No surprise there.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12352168

[tomm]

The vaccine isn’t guaranteed. So far, drugs are only able to reduce symptoms. They have yet to come up with a vaccine that prevents people from getting COVID-19.

An article in the herald is expecting the cinemas to remain quiet for the rest of 2019. No surprise there.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12352168
That is why you might see the SP remain at this level for a while , but won't be long.

[Joshuatree]

" It is widely assumed that a Covid-19 vaccine will come to our rescue soon. This is unlikely to be true, but, more importantly, it is a dangerous assumption on which to plan the overall response to the pandemic. The lessons to be drawn from the quest for vaccines for other viruses are that our aspirations in vaccine development are not always realised, and that we can make great progress nonetheless with alternative new drugs and interventions."

www.globalnews.co.nz (http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001yKVxNl8s4dDiJLfqgGLHFKanF30ym77NqT6EjV kJWhm8INqjYa9YKsLCarm1wuKVL2ULWzthDfht6UzDy8F9SjHe Pr2tSiw5PMMbq1PUs-PlXkdogILFNxnEZW1Hm2yBfG_WvftJ1YUwzCK5fWv0EQ==&c=mG-PaasiXGV0IK98aKV9hRzGb4Rf5n_6aidBzLUmUKlWSire8-gZiA==&ch=XIIf1hPgszjC5Gls05AzXMMnJn1mVUtSg53mw67RW0O-eJbaH3xAKA==)
An opinion From the Ryder global report.

S saw some stats recently that the fastest ever vaccine developed (cant remember what for sorry) has taken 10 tears.
On my watch list, would like to invest sometime.

[Enrix]

Cinema sector - The long term agreement signed between Universal Studios and Cinema Chain AMC is set to shake up the sector - shorten the exclusive window for AMC to screen new releases - but also provide an opportunity for Vista Group (VGL). Improved marketing and utilisation by cinemas is required, as well as increasing revenue through better F&B offers - all areas VGL’s software suite can enhance. VGL’s recently released a Transactional Video on Demand (TVOD) product, which allows Cinemas to operate their own branded VOD platform - an example of product innovation that will become increasingly important to customers.

DYOR

[Hello123]

Will be watching this over the coming days, opening at 1.19 so far.

A nice price lets see how much further it falls if at all.

[tomm]

Free dose for every Aussie: AgreeThe Oxford vaccine, which went into human trials in April, produced a promising immune response that lasted for nearly two months in an early study involving more than 1000 healthy adults, researchers reported.ment to buy Oxford vaccine
"The Oxford vaccine is one of the most advanced and promising in the world, and under this deal, we have secured early access for every Australian," he said.

The project could deliver the first vaccines by the end of this year or by early 2021.

[Leftfield]

VGL 6 months FY20 results out today. Not pretty IMO. Link Here. (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/358757) (Disc - No longer held)

• Revenue down 34% to $44.8m
• EBITDA loss of $6.5m, including non-cash expected credit loss and credit risk provisions of $7.6m
• Loss before tax of $47.9m, including non-cash impairment charges and credit provisions $36.1m

[nevchev]

VGL 6 months FY20 results out today. Not pretty IMO. Link Here. (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/358757) (Disc - No longer held)

• Revenue down 34% to $44.8m
• EBITDA loss of $6.5m, including non-cash expected credit loss and credit risk provisions of $7.6m
• Loss before tax of $47.9m, including non-cash impairment charges and credit provisions $36.1m



Not good at all.I think the big question is how long will the recovery take,if it has one

[tomm]

Cash Balance is good.

CASH BALANCE for 2020 is: 96M which is 287% increased from 2019 : 24.8M.

[wilba]

Cash Balance is good.

CASH BALANCE for 2020 is: 96M which is 287% increased from 2019 : 24.8M.

They did a capital raise earlier of $62.5m. At that time they had $40m in cash, so they are burning some. Maybe 4-5m a month?

[forest]

Cash Balance is good.

CASH BALANCE for 2020 is: 96M which is 287% increased from 2019 : 24.8M.

Also operational cash flow was a healthy $16.7m, even if you subtract the included covid 19 related $7.4m is still nearly $2m up on the pcp.

[Lease]

Given the fact most of cinemas around the world are shut in the first half, revenue only down 34% is good enough.

[tomm]

Also operational cash flow was a healthy $16.7m, even if you subtract the included covid 19 related $7.4m is still nearly $2m up on the pcp.
With the covid situation , for my thinking , I draw a line from 2019 and 2020. I compare VGL with other business on NZX at the moment and I see there are lots more businesses are suffered then I go back to compare their share's prices and assets.
You do the math.
Also VGL has strong support from investors.

[Quantitative Easing]

Very good result. Especially the cash position and cashflow. That's all that matter. They will survive and then boom once cinemas reopen.

[Lease]

Very good result. Especially the cash position and cashflow. That's all that matter. They will survive and then boom once cinemas reopen.

Ya, I think so.

[tango]

Very good result. Especially the cash position and cashflow. That's all that matter. They will survive and then boom once cinemas reopen.

I wouldn’t go so far as to say they will boom when theatres re open. Disney might prefer to release exclusively on Disney+ and Amazon and YouTube are also trying to buy movies to release direct to streaming instead of to theatres. Amazon and google have the $$$ to make it happen.

Disc; still holding and hoping but honestly think the world of theatre going is not going to the same again. It will bounce back to some extent in 2 to 3 years but I just think that more and more people have home theatres and are going to get used to streaming new releases at home. I think there will be more direct to streaming releases and less releases to theatres. Off the top of my head I can think of three friends who have proper home theatre setups with proper movie theatre chairs and a large wall to project movies on

[Quantitative Easing]

I wouldn’t go so far as to say they will boom when theatres re open. Disney might prefer to release exclusively on Disney+ and Amazon and YouTube are also trying to buy movies to release direct to streaming instead of to theatres. Amazon and google have the $$$ to make it happen.

Disc; still holding and hoping but honestly think the world of theatre going is not going to the same again. It will bounce back to some extent in 2 to 3 years but I just think that more and more people have home theatres and are going to get used to streaming new releases at home. I think there will be more direct to streaming releases and less releases to theatres. Off the top of my head I can think of three friends who have proper home theatre setups with proper movie theatre chairs and a large wall to project movies on

Yes you are right, at least as far as the western world goes. But don't forget about the big Asian market, China and India. Most of the middle class in those countries will not have a home theatre and their preferred method of watching movies would be at the cinemas.

[Cadalac123]

I wouldn’t go so far as to say they will boom when theatres re open. Disney might prefer to release exclusively on Disney+ and Amazon and YouTube are also trying to buy movies to release direct to streaming instead of to theatres. Amazon and google have the $$$ to make it happen.

Disc; still holding and hoping but honestly think the world of theatre going is not going to the same again. It will bounce back to some extent in 2 to 3 years but I just think that more and more people have home theatres and are going to get used to streaming new releases at home. I think there will be more direct to streaming releases and less releases to theatres. Off the top of my head I can think of three friends who have proper home theatre setups with proper movie theatre chairs and a large wall to project movies on

Yeah I don’t think everyone can afford that setup in any country except the upper middle class to the rich ..

Disc not a holder . Regret not trading this though lol

[tango]

Yes you are right, at least as far as the western world goes. But don't forget about the big Asian market, China and India. Most of the middle class in those countries will not have a home theatre and their preferred method of watching movies would be at the cinemas.

Thank you for that. It’s a small ray of hope...

[tango]

Yeah I don’t think everyone can afford that setup in any country except the upper middle class to the rich ..

Disc not a holder . Regret not trading this though lol
Only 1 of those 3 is rich. Of the others, one lives rural so he converted an old garage into an amazing home theatre and the other is in IT and loves movies and tech toys.

I also think, psychologically speaking, that many people are preferring to socialise at home and not risk going out. I’m not sure if this will be an ongoing trend. I saw an article about this and they had a particular phrase for people becoming more introverted post COVID 19

[Lease]

I wouldn’t go so far as to say they will boom when theatres re open. Disney might prefer to release exclusively on Disney+ and Amazon and YouTube are also trying to buy movies to release direct to streaming instead of to theatres. Amazon and google have the $$$ to make it happen.

Disc; still holding and hoping but honestly think the world of theatre going is not going to the same again. It will bounce back to some extent in 2 to 3 years but I just think that more and more people have home theatres and are going to get used to streaming new releases at home. I think there will be more direct to streaming releases and less releases to theatres. Off the top of my head I can think of three friends who have proper home theatre setups with proper movie theatre chairs and a large wall to project movies on

streaming is a threat. Only time will tell. movie theatre is not the first time facing challenge. When TV was invented, people thought cinema would fade, but it's not. When DVD became popular, people thought cinema would fade, but it didn't happen. So let's see if streaming will knock cinema down.

[TJP]

Not good at all.I think the big question is how long will the recovery take,if it has one

The market likes the news:

VGL$1.710$0.360 / 26.67%

[Quantitative Easing]

Streaming is a very western thing and limited to upper classes in Asia. You need very fast fibre internet to have a seamless streaming experience. Asian media landscape (except for Japan and Korea) is probably 10-15 years behind the west.

[tomm]

Streaming is a very western thing and limited to upper classes in Asia. You need very fast fibre internet to have a seamless streaming experience. Asian media landscape (except for Japan and Korea) is probably 10-15 years behind the west.
You are so wrong , the West fibre internet speed is even slower than Asia's countries ( Viet Nam, Thailand, Malaysia..).Japan and Korea ( these countries VGL is operating right now). Only Africa is still in third world.

[wilba]

India is predominately mobile driven. because of that netflix offers subs are $4 a month for a mobile pass

vista had to cancel their full purchase of their jv partner in china to protect cash flow. besides that china's internet has no issues.

[Quantitative Easing]

... besides that china's internet has no issues.

Haha except for censorship.

[Quantitative Easing]

You are so wrong , the West fibre internet speed is even slower than Asia's countries ( Viet Nam, Thailand, Malaysia..).Japan and Korea ( these countries VGL is operating right now). Only Africa is still in third world.


Yes i said except Japan and Korea. In countries like Vietnam and Malaysia streaming is mainly done by upper middle class, not the masses. Masses still watch linear tv programming.

[tomm]

Yes i said except Japan and Korea. In countries like Vietnam and Malaysia streaming is mainly done by upper middle class, not the masses. Masses still watch linear tv programming.
Now a day every house hold have TV box streaming with 40+ chanels just for 4 dollars/month and xtra for exclusive movies...not the old way anymore.

[Lease]

Now a day every house hold have TV box streaming with 40+ chanels just for 4 dollars/month and xtra for exclusive movies...not the old way anymore.

Sometimes it's not just about money, people may love to view movies with other audience and feel the atmosphere, just like sports, there is TV live streaming but stadium is still full.

I think this is the reason why TV and DVD not knock cinema down.

[Hello123]

Me and my partner go to the movies at least 2 times a month as long as there releasing new movies, love the big screen, the popcorn, the drinks.

Its all about the environment and helps me to be catapulted into the world im watching a lot more, cant wait for them to open am going to go see Quiet place part 2 as soon it is released along with a number of others!

New lynn cinema is 10 mins drive and tickets are 11$ each, Disney released Mulan at what 30$ on disney plus. I would much prefer to go to the movies were we can enjoy the environment, drink, popcorn for maybe 10$ more!

[Quantitative Easing]

Me and my partner go to the movies at least 2 times a month as long as there releasing new movies, love the big screen, the popcorn, the drinks.

Its all about the environment and helps me to be catapulted into the world im watching a lot more, cant wait for them to open am going to go see Quiet place part 2 as soon it is released along with a number of others!

New lynn cinema is 10 mins drive and tickets are 11$ each, Disney released Mulan at what 30$ on disney plus. I would much prefer to go to the movies were we can enjoy the environment, drink, popcorn for maybe 10$ more!

Exactly mate. It's all about the customer experience, however i think the cinema industry needs to evolve in order to keep the customer engaged. People are willing to spend a little bit more for a superior product/experience.

[dibble]

Its a peculiar thing indeed. I thought cinemas would die a decade or more back, didnt make financial sense given the growing options. And what happened? Ticket prices doubled and crowds flocked in. Bit like the housing market i suppose.

[tomm]

Exactly mate. It's all about the customer experience, however i think the cinema industry needs to evolve in order to keep the customer engaged. People are willing to spend a little bit more for a superior product/experience.
The same here , specially with the kids .. and now a day they have a VIP seats and 3D experiments as well and other entertainments not just for Premier movies.
I skipped the queue by punting and oder my tickets from the machine proudly with software by VGL instead of lining up.

[flyinglizard]

Virtual Tours, 360º video and VR software (https://www.3dvista.com/)

[tango]

The market likes the news:

VGL$1.710$0.360 / 26.67%

I can’t believe how positively the market greeted the results. I was in the “meh” camp.

[jimdog31]

I can’t believe how positively the market greeted the results. I was in the “meh” camp.

Report season has been the definition of “contrarian”

[Leftfield]

I can’t believe how positively the market greeted the results. I was in the “meh” camp.

In fairness the Market has hardly had any time to speak either positively or negatively this week!!

Although I don't currently hold VGL, I like the company's products and management. I also like the industry and am an old school movie fan.

From a TA perspective, things are looking promising with a possible golden cross in the offering.

Unfortunately VGL is facing a market in the midst of Covid disruption, so I think I will forgo the fun (?) of 'picking the bottom' and wait for a more confirmed uptrend. GLH.

[tango]

Report season has been the definition of “contrarian”
Can't argue with that.


In fairness the Market has hardly had any time to speak either positively or negatively this week!!

Although I don't currently hold VGL, I like the company's products and management. I also like the industry and am an old school movie fan.

From a TA perspective, things are looking promising with a possible golden cross in the offering.

Unfortunately VGL is facing a market in the midst of Covid disruption, so I think I will forgo the fun (?) of 'picking the bottom' and wait for a more confirmed uptrend. GLH.

VGL have a great product and moat but I bought in before COVID. I bought some more at the dip but my average cost is still sky high. This is definitely a verrrrry long term proposition with lots of uncertainty. Fisher Funds love VGL and have been scooping up shares at the low points.

[Lease]

Can't argue with that.



VGL have a great product and moat but I bought in before COVID. I bought some more at the dip but my average cost is still sky high. This is definitely a verrrrry long term proposition with lots of uncertainty. Fisher Funds love VGL and have been scooping up shares at the low points.

It's quite sad you bought at sky high price. Sometimes I love market turbulence as it gives me chance to buy good companies at low price. I'm lucky to find VGL after Covid-19.

[tango]

It's quite sad you bought at sky high price. Sometimes I love market turbulence as it gives me chance to buy good companies at low price. I'm lucky to find VGL after Covid-19.
Lucky you.

My broker recommended it and put me in it at $6. OUCH 😓
I bought more at $1 but I still have a high average cost

[Leftfield]

Lucky you.
My broker recommended it and put me in it at $6. OUCH 


Brokers.... you've got to love them! ;)

[flyinglizard]

Should buy more to get the average price down, it will come back to $6 price range after 3-5 years.
Can't argue with that.



VGL have a great product and moat but I bought in before COVID. I bought some more at the dip but my average cost is still sky high. This is definitely a verrrrry long term proposition with lots of uncertainty. Fisher Funds love VGL and have been scooping up shares at the low points.

[Quantitative Easing]

Can't argue with that.



VGL have a great product and moat but I bought in before COVID. I bought some more at the dip but my average cost is still sky high. This is definitely a verrrrry long term proposition with lots of uncertainty. Fisher Funds love VGL and have been scooping up shares at the low points.

Don't worry mate. It happens to all of us. You could either trade it for a while to eat away at the paper loss or just hold and keeping buying at dips. But with the latter option you have the risk of your portfolio being too heavy on Vista. Best of luck my bro. :)

[winner69]

There was a discussion on the radio the other day which essentially said that movie theatre patronage will never recover post-covid to anywhere near historical levels

One reason why go to the movies when you can stream the latest movies and watch in the safety of your home.

[Quantitative Easing]

There was a discussion on the radio the other day which essentially said that movie theatre patronage will never recover post-covid to anywhere near historical levels

One reason why go to the movies when you can stream the latest movies and watch in the safety of your home.

But Sir not everyone lives in a reclusive mansion in Remuera with home theatres. I would say most people around the world do not have a home theatre system that could compare to the cinema experience. Markets like India and Africa have huge upside potential for the cinema industry.

[Hello123]

There was a discussion on the radio the other day which essentially said that movie theatre patronage will never recover post-covid to anywhere near historical levels

One reason why go to the movies when you can stream the latest movies and watch in the safety of your home.

Great did they also give us the lotto numbers to this weeks draw?

[winner69]

Great did they also give us the lotto numbers to this weeks draw?

Yep -- 5 19 21 29 33 34 and Powerball 4

[tango]

Don't worry mate. It happens to all of us. You could either trade it for a while to eat away at the paper loss or just hold and keeping buying at dips. But with the latter option you have the risk of your portfolio being too heavy on Vista. Best of luck my bro. :)

Thanks QE

For now I am just letting it sit. I bought some in the dips but even though the product has a great moat the world of theatre is uncertain so I don't want to add to the position right now. If it dips back down to all time lows again I might load up the truck...

[peat]

Great did they also give us the lotto numbers to this weeks draw?


too many reckons these days - everyone is either an epidemiologist or a prophet and expert at predicting the future.
history says people keep going to movies even when seemingly similar (but not exactly similar) options become available.

[flyinglizard]

waiting for tomorrow STATS GDP figure. anything betw 10% -20% not surprise market. VGL may dip a bit, then the best buying point.

[Cadalac123]

Not holding but really don't get this people are going to stop going to the movies theme - not going to happen

there is a social construct entirely embedded amongst going to the cinemas. I agree its demographic sensitive though. But you have to be joking if you think people in their teens-early 30s won't visit a cinema for a social occasion over sitting at home watching a movie on their laptop or TV

[peat]

Not holding but really don't get this people are going to stop going to the movies theme - not going to happen

there is a social construct entirely embedded amongst going to the cinemas. I agree its demographic sensitive though. But you have to be joking if you think people in their teens-early 30s won't visit a cinema for a social occasion over sitting at home watching a movie on their laptop or TV

it is possible - though I dont know if I agree or not (I guess not given I have VGL) - it is possible - that people only do this because of the earlier time release aspect of the main cinema and movies chains

[winner69]

There were 3 of us at “Romantic Road” at The Penthouse today

Good movie

[Hello123]

There were 3 of us at “Romantic Road” at The Penthouse today

Good movie

Movies are just better at the cinemas!

[Lease]

I just watched "Mulan" on my ipad over the weekend. I image I'll have a lot better experience if I sit in cinema and watch it.

[Leftfield]

Just another example (https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/03/media/no-time-to-die-james-bond-delayed-2021/index.html) of the headwinds faced by VGL.

Innovative company with great product....... struggling in Covid times.

I hope they survive. (ex holder.)

[flyinglizard]

https://www.marketwatch.com/press-release/amc-to-have-more-than-80-of-us-theatres-open-with-14-more-theatres-resuming-operations-in-california-and-across-the-state-of-michigan-2020-09-30?mod=mw_quote_news

AMC to Have More Than 80% of U.S. Theatres Open With 14 More Theatres Resuming Operations in California and Across the State of Michigan


https://www.screendaily.com/news/cinema-reopening-dates-around-the-world-latest-updates/5149917.article


Cinema reopening dates around the world: latest updates

[Hoop]

Back in the 1980's or was it early 1990's when we got a video cassette player and started to rent videos to watch on weekend nights...we though that would stuff up the Cinemas...If you have a bet which business would survive for longer, video shops or cinemas, I would have lost my bet by picking Video shops...Just goes to show you cant look at the present to predict the future...It's all to do with adapting with the times..

Brokers...what can one say...They cost me a lot of money, so I'm biased..I did some charts way back and found brokers undervalued stocks going up and overvalued stocks going down..a big reason why I lost money listening to these Guys...
Disc: hold VGL

[Joshuatree]

Event Cinema at the Mount (full of people,holidays )still closed when I drove past today and Event Tauranga open partime.Seems people don't want/ need to go back.

[Hello123]

Event Cinema at the Mount (full of people,holidays )still closed when I drove past today and Event Tauranga open partime.Seems people don't want/ need to go back.

Yes because we need movies coming out haha, anything worth watching has been pushed back till very late in the year or next year entirley.

[Hoop]

Yes because we need movies coming out haha, anything worth watching has been pushed back till very late in the year or next year entirley.

yes...It seems Covid is one factor, another factor is the lack of new release movies..
Cineworld the 2nd biggest movie operator in the World is considering a temporary closure of all its sites in the US and UK after studios postponed major releases such as the latest James Bond film. (https://play.stuff.co.nz/details/_6197351318001)
This news is going to give Vista some more negative investor sentiment...I expect a few more cents shaved off it's share price today

Disc: hold VGL

[bull....]

Delaying James Bond Means Even More Misery for Movie Theaters
AMC’s losses could accelerate now that it’s open again.


“Given our expectations for a high rate of cash burn, we believe the company will run out of liquidity within the next six months

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-04/it-s-fade-to-black-for-more-theaters-as-covid-strikes-even-007?srnd=premium-asia

[Hoop]

Probably should have sold last week

11994

[Joshuatree]

Yes because we need movies coming out haha, anything worth watching has been pushed back till very late in the year or next year entirley.

Im not prepared to gamble on the numbers coming back anytime soon or ever.

[bull....]

Cineworld, the world’s second-biggest cinema chain, will close its U.K. and U.S. movie theatres this week, leaving as many as 45,000 workers unemployed, as it fights a coronavirus-related collapse in film releases and cinema-going.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/05/cineworld-brings-down-the-curtain-on-us-uk-theaters-45000-jobs-hit-.html

[tango]

Probably should have sold last week

11994
Vista has a strong cash position. There’s no need to panic sell, but the prices were certainly better a month ago...


VGL are developing products for streaming services.
This from the August interim update:
“ Powster revenue was down 34% as billings for showtimes reduced with cinema closure and creative revenues declined in the short term with customers deferring or cancelling work. New business in streaming and music were won and are expected to partly fill the revenue shortfall in the second half of the year.

Flicks revenue was down 12% due to declines in advertising revenues. Flicks successfully extending its movie content focus into streaming in the first half of 2020 and, despite COVID-19, traffic was down only 8%.”

The limiting factor would appear to be new movie releases for streaming

[Leftfield]

.......... VGL are developing products for streaming services.

.................The limiting factor would appear to be new movie releases for streaming

Mmmm.... why would Netflix or Disney (Apple etc etc) stream through VGL when they have their own streaming services?

The limiting factor you mention seems to underline this difficulty.

[tango]

Mmmm.... why would Netflix or Disney (Apple etc etc) stream through VGL when they have their own streaming services?

The limiting factor you mention seems to underline this difficulty.

Movie theatres (not Netflix, Disney, etc) are streaming to customers at home using Vista products

[tango]

FYI
https://deadline.com/2020/04/screenplus-vista-group-launch-streaming-platform-1202902163/

[Leftfield]

Movie theatres (not Netflix, Disney, etc) are streaming to customers at home using Vista products

Appreciated, thanks Tango. Top marks to VGL for innovating.

However, big players still control a lot of the content (and their own streaming) so it will be interesting to see how this plays out.

[tango]

Appreciated, thanks Tango. Top marks to VGL for innovating.

However, big players still control a lot of the content (and their own streaming) so it will be interesting to see how this plays out.

Yes! It's a very clever strategy to adapt to the market but without movies to stream theatres are stuck. The Chinese market will likely be okay because they are on top of COVID and its people have been through SARS and bounced back from that so will happily go to movies wearing masks. US, UK, Australia etc are much tricker.

Vista have been innovative, but the movie theatres also need to be innovative without a steady flow of new movies to promote. I was thinking they could stream classics (e.g. a Marilyn Munroe festival), or smaller Indie movies that don't usually get the big theatre treatment to people at home but even then most of the classics are still available on streaming platforms. Watch this space...

[Hoop]

Vista has a strong cash position. There’s no need to panic sell............
Panic sell ...a very old word used by an optimistic individual fighting the market.
Tango ...During my 47 years buying/selling shares there is one golden rule I have learnt..Never fight Mr Market..

The reason way I said I should've sold last week is I am a TA investor and I failed to exit when TA triggered mass sell signals at around 170c. There is a reason why mass signals get triggered..it's usually news or rumour that us Plebs are not privy to at the time...A few days later us Plebs were informed about that bad news (see above sharetrader posts with links)..Now they are 155c.......When using any investment strategies you should stick to that system..Have to be disciplined!!! and not be swayed by emotion or your own beliefs....I am 9% worse off by being ill disciplined..I should have been out (exited) awaiting re-entry.....

[Leftfield]

Panic sell ...a very old word used by an optimistic individual fighting the market.
Tango ...During my 47 years buying/selling shares there is one golden rule I have learnt..Never fight Mr Market..

The reason way I said I should've sold last week is I am a TA investor and I failed to exit when TA triggered mass sell signals at around 170c. There is a reason why mass signals get triggered..it's usually news or rumour that us Plebs are not privy to at the time...A few days later us Plebs were informed about that bad news (see above sharetrader posts with links)..Now they are 155c.......When using any investment strategies you should stick to that system..Have to be disciplined!!! and not be swayed by emotion or your own beliefs....I am 9% worse off by being ill disciplined..I should have been out (exited) awaiting re-entry.....

Totally agree Hoop and appreciate your honesty.

[tango]

Panic sell ...a very old word used by an optimistic individual fighting the market.
Tango ...During my 47 years buying/selling shares there is one golden rule I have learnt..Never fight Mr Market..

The reason way I said I should've sold last week is I am a TA investor and I failed to exit when TA triggered mass sell signals at around 170c. There is a reason why mass signals get triggered..it's usually news or rumour that us Plebs are not privy to at the time...A few days later us Plebs were informed about that bad news (see above sharetrader posts with links)..Now they are 155c.......When using any investment strategies you should stick to that system..Have to be disciplined!!! and not be swayed by emotion or your own beliefs....I am 9% worse off by being ill disciplined..I should have been out (exited) awaiting re-entry.....

Haha! Yes, an old fashioned word and my apologies because I was confusing you with all the Sharesies people that buy and sell on impulse.

I agree with you on never fighting Mr Market.

I hope you at least got your sell order in at $1.55 before the market dropped to $1.45 today.

I sold most of my shares and kept a small parcel but that was probably over optimistic of me. VGL are dealing with circumstances they have no control over with closed movie theatres and delayed movie releases...

[Hoop]

Haha! Yes, an old fashioned word and my apologies because I was confusing you with all the Sharesies people that buy and sell on impulse.

I agree with you on never fighting Mr Market.

I hope you at least got your sell order in at $1.55 before the market dropped to $1.45 today.

I sold most of my shares and kept a small parcel but that was probably over optimistic of me. VGL are dealing with circumstances they have no control over with closed movie theatres and delayed movie releases...

No I didn't..I still have VGL shares..all of them....The problem is..if one goes against their Strategy discipline and don't sell as I did, you end up being at the mercy of the Market and create your own decision dilemma where there is no right or wrong answer...The dilemma (if I sell the shares will go up, if I don't sell the shares will continue to go down) creates anxiety, the mind demons slowly destroys your confidence and self esteem.

I'm currently at the mercy of the VGL Market...I have become immune to mind demons but still suffer regrets...

Frankly the market has been crazy all year....The crazy VGL example has been these last 3 days ..close 155c, close 145c, close 159c...

[tango]

No I didn't..I still have VGL shares..all of them....The problem is..if one goes against their Strategy discipline and don't sell as I did, you end up being at the mercy of the Market and create your own decision dilemma where there is no right or wrong answer...The dilemma (if I sell the shares will go up, if I don't sell the shares will continue to go down) creates anxiety, the mind demons slowly destroys your confidence and self esteem.

I'm currently at the mercy of the VGL Market...I have become immune to mind demons but still suffer regrets...

Frankly the market has been crazy all year....The crazy VGL example has been these last 3 days ..close 155c, close 145c, close 159c...

Ah yes the coulda shoulda woulda. I had a brief moment of that when I noticed that VGL popped back up to $1.59
Absolutely incredible and I can only assume that Sharesies peeps think it's a bargain or Kingfish are doubling down.

Keeping the discipline is hard in investing. I don't do TA (still learning how that works but am starting to play with it) but I do have my own rules I like to stick with.

One of those rules is to be prepared to murder your darlings. I first bought into VGL at the recommendation of my broker at $6. I bought more when the market dropped. However, the whole game has changed now and I have had to reassess the fundamentals.

Frankly the movie industry right now is looking insecure. The Chinese market is probably still going to be strong. They have their own movie culture and the Chinese are used to wearing masks and likely will go back to movies. India have a world of pain ahead of them getting on top of covid 19 but maybe Bollywood will be back in full force in a couple of years. USA, UK, Australia and New Zealand I can see losing market share to streaming.

As an aside I used to kibbitz Buffett and Gates playing bridge. What bridge teaches you is that you can do everything 100% correct but still get a bad outcome. Investing is mainly skill but there are a lot of factors you simply cannot account for. Right now the world is in a recession artificially kept on life support with stimulus packages and there is a deranged orange faced man who moves the market 3-5% every second time he opens his mouth. You simply can't cover all the eventualities. You just make the best decision you can at the time with the information you have and your own system for predicting outcomes and your own goals.

[tango]

One analyst's opinion on the movie industry right now

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jkvm8_Rg16A&t=199s

[King1212]

Time for this sick puppy to shine....

People are so horny to go out around the world after lockdowns n restrictions...

Moderna vaccine news will push it through $2

[King1212]

all entertainment stocks are up 6-13% at the DOW!! this stock also going to be a good recovery stock!!

[King1212]

Will see this sick puppy recovers again today. All entertainment stocks up 6 to 13% again at DOw. US is doing vaccine distribution trial. Moderna is expected to submit thier vaccine within days...

US expecting to distribute the vaccine by 10 Dec

U.S. to test run Covid vaccine distribution networks as it awaits FDA clearance

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/24/us-to-test-run-covid-vaccine-distribution-networks-as-it-awaits-fda-clearance-in-just-a-few-weeks.html?__source=androidappshare

[bull....]

im in vgl too , got in when the trade turned to covid recovery stocks. who's following who lol

[King1212]

Come bull...give me the credit...you are following me...u have too many stars now....

[Leftfield]

Interesting times for VGL watchers.

Warner Bros decision to release its 2021 movies via streaming and the possible effects on the Movie industry discussed here. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/entertainment/warner-bros-movie-releases-on-hbo-max/2020/12/03/bdac5d68-359e-11eb-a997-1f4c53d2a747_story.html)

Meanwhile VGL acquires Cinema Intelligence company. See here. (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/364460)

(disc - don't hold)

[NZSilver]

Once we get past this pandemic, there will still be people going to movies as it's an activity no just watching the movie.

[King1212]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dune-home-turns-theaters-wasteland-214737533.html

[bull....]

Interesting times for VGL watchers.

Warner Bros decision to release its 2021 movies via streaming and the possible effects on the Movie industry discussed here. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/entertainment/warner-bros-movie-releases-on-hbo-max/2020/12/03/bdac5d68-359e-11eb-a997-1f4c53d2a747_story.html)

Meanwhile VGL acquires Cinema Intelligence company. See here. (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/364460)

(disc - don't hold)

dont think you can easliy replicate the movie theatre experience in the home ( compare watching avengers endgame at home compared to the theatre) , so i think there always be a theatre experience maybe just not as many players. after all that is where they make the big bucks not in streaming to your home.

[Leftfield]

dont think you can easliy replicate the movie theatre experience in the home ( compare watching avengers endgame at home compared to the theatre) , so i think there always be a theatre experience maybe just not as many players. after all that is where they make the big bucks not in streaming to your home.

I agree. VGL has carved out a strong position in the Movie market...... however IMO that market is changing partly due to Covid and partly due to streaming.... what that means to VGL's longer term bottom line is unknown and uncertain.

I suspect it will be at least a year before we can judge VGL's financial strength (or otherwise) .... that's why I'm not holding.... but watching with interest. JMHO.

[Biscuit]

dont think you can easliy replicate the movie theatre experience in the home ....


No, would be difficult to replicate the experience of trying to watch a movie while being surrounded by people fidgeting, talking, rustling sweet packets, stuffing themselves with popcorn.....

[bull....]

No, would be difficult to replicate the experience of trying to watch a movie while being surrounded by people fidgeting, talking, rustling sweet packets, stuffing themselves with popcorn.....

which of course you do none of that in your living room right ?

[Leftfield]

No, would be difficult to replicate the experience of trying to watch a movie while being surrounded by people fidgeting, talking, rustling sweet packets, stuffing themselves with popcorn.....

lol..... last time I went to a movie theatre was post covid and I spent the evening paranoid and dodging the hour long coughing fit going on in the seat behind me. Haven't been back.

[bull....]

looks like the buyers are lining up big time .... must be the big blockbuster of wonder woman to be released at xmas

[Jaa]

I think you guys are underestimating the Warner move. Other studies will follow. The big bucks are made from streaming now. Disney+ has 70m subscribers. Also a lot more money and creative talent going into TV via Netflix and Amazon.

Yes cinemas will still exist but there will be fewer of them and thus less potential license revenue for Vista.

[King1212]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/10/disney-nbcuniversal-viacomcbs-unlikely-to-follow-warnermedias-2021-movie-plan.html

[King1212]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cinemark-celebrates-100-000-private-160000642.html

[winner69]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cinemark-celebrates-100-000-private-160000642.html

Good stuff

For those who just don't click on links the headline is

Cinemark Celebrates 100,000 Private Watch Party Milestone Driven by High Consumer Demand, Delighting more than 1.3 Million Moviegoers with a Personalized Big-Screen Experience in a Dedicated Auditorium

[King1212]

Funny eh...CNK is doing well but AMC is struggling due to high debts..I guess the most important in investing companies is looking at their debts level

[Jaa]

As predicted Disney is following Warner with plans to massively grow Disney+ in the next few years. Lots of blockbuster content skipping theaters and going straight to its streaming service.


Disney said that over the next few years, Disney+ will have roughly 10 new series from Marvel and Star Wars, as well as 15 Disney live action, Disney Animation and Pixar series. Disney also said that 15 new films from Pixar, Disney live action and Disney Animation will be heading to the service.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/10/media/disney-plus-investor-day-marvel-star-wars-streaming/index.html

[King1212]

Only disney series...they all decided not to do big movies..would like to see wanner bros data..

Read it properly mate...

[Jaa]

Only disney series...they all decided not to do big movies..would like to see wanner bros data..

Read it properly mate...

My quote says 15 films. :confused:

[King1212]

There are budget movies certainly will be on streaming....

High end movie...such as wonder women 84...if they put it on streaming...it will lose a lot of money

Let see how it plays..I am confident VGL will be resilience...

[Jaa]

Wonder Woman 1984 is going straight on HBO Max the same day its released in cinemas??

Also name a budget film produced by Pixar? They are ALL high end.

VGL may be able to pivot or consolidate what's left but its a definite headwind.

[King1212]

Let's talk about it next year...if VGL does not bounce next year. I vow Not to post again at share trader forum

[King1212]

Vgl is safer than PLX to be honest.

Feb revenue $144m

Half year reported $44m. N it is almost end year. Let say total revenue $80m due to covid.

Current market cap $388m ...that is only 5x its revenue.

Plus VGL has almost $75m cash...

So got to say it is the best undervalued tech stock.

China...some Asian countries,nz and Ozzie ..most cinemas open. Also thier Macs are being used by film producers..

So..I would sit tight till end of next year n this will be my holiday money.

[King1212]

Oz closes at $1.70...

Fundies are accumulating...

[Rawz]

VGL heading towards $1.20 again it seems. Harbour Asset Mgmt sold down a bit recently.

I don't hold, but am following. Would have liked a trading update for the 4th quarter..

[Lease]

VGL heading towards $1.20 again it seems. Harbour Asset Mgmt sold down a bit recently.

I don't hold, but am following. Would have liked a trading update for the 4th quarter..

No worries, see what has happened to Asia: https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2021/01/24/commentary/world-commentary/asias-movie-rebound-good-news-everyone/

And it will happen to US, Europe and anywhere else, just a matter of time.

Disc. holding

[bull....]

VGL heading towards $1.20 again it seems. Harbour Asset Mgmt sold down a bit recently.

I don't hold, but am following. Would have liked a trading update for the 4th quarter..

agree its looking weak , i tried a trade around the 1.70 area but not enough momo so i exited. i dont see full on movie experience happening this year

[metalstorm]

I must say, after getting involved in shares again (opportunity taking with Covid), I'm truly grateful to have access to a useful platform like ST.

I bought VGL at 1.20 last year as I was a bit slow to decide on where I would invest.

I have recently been contemplating whether or not I increase my holding and was looking at the 3 year chart.

One thing that worried me was the sharp drop in Aug 2019 and I wanted to find out what caused that.

I have very limited access to company news on the trading platforms that I currently use and was very happy to find the answer to my questions buried in this thread. :)

I have no analysis credentials whatsoever, but it does seem like VGL was on a downward trend even before Covid hit?

If theatres re-open worldwide, this would be an immediate shot in the arm, but it seems like we'd only be in the 2.75 - 3.00 range again? I find it hard to see VGL go above the 4.00 of the past in the medium term.

The rise of streaming services and studios releasing to streamers on the same day as theatres will surely increase its cannabilisation of theatre revenues (and therefore VGL)?

I understand that markets like China and India still have very large movie-going populations. I wonder what the rate of adoption for streaming services is like in those markets?

Anyways, questions and musings currently going through my mind as I try to decide whether I accumulate more at the market rate and hope for a 60-100% return in 15 months; or whether that money could be better utilised elsewhere on a surer thing. :confused:

[kiora]

From what I've seen (in the provinces of NZ) movie going is back to a steady new "normal" whatever that is. People still want to have the movie experience for good movies
It would be interesting to know if VGL how trading is now compared to precovid in NZ.
Not holding. Sold early Feb 20

[peat]

I have said this before but I will re-iterate.
I classify this as quite a risky share to hold but worthwhile for an appropriate i.e quite small, part of the portfolio.
The company has good management, good drive and ambition, and despite numerous hits the cinema industry has always previously maintained patronage.
Only 1% tho.

[Hoop]

Hmmm..Got caught with a small doggy parcel a couple of years ago so off it went to my bottom drawer..Lately it has been on my "sniff watch list" as it's looking (technically) a little bit brighter. The recent symmetrical triangle breakout is still marginal but what the heck..I accumulated some more this morning at $1.76..

12349

[Rawz]

Hmmm..Got caught with a small doggy parcel a couple of years ago so off it went to my bottom drawer..Lately it has been on my "sniff watch list" as it's looking (technically) a little bit brighter. The recent symmetrical triangle breakout is still marginal but what the heck..I accumulated some more this morning at $1.76..

12349

That's some cool TA!!!

[Lease]

VGL posted good result yesterday, I think. The loss can be expected as most of time last year movie theaters were closed in most countries. But it still generated $88m revenue and the Company is at net cash position.

China has just achieved record box office sales during the Spring Festival. Similar record has been seen in Japan and other Asian countries when movie theaters re-opened. It's almost certain we will see the similar things to happen once US and Europe cinemas re-open.

[Hoop]

Hmmm..Got caught with a small doggy parcel a couple of years ago so off it went to my bottom drawer..Lately it has been on my "sniff watch list" as it's looking (technically) a little bit brighter. The recent symmetrical triangle breakout is still marginal but what the heck..I accumulated some more this morning at $1.76..


Vista Current price $1.98 confirmed triangle breakout and has changed status from Technical Bear to Technical Bull. .This status change enables an investor to change investment strategy from Rowing to Sailing.

There is weak resistance (psychological) at $2.00 however Vista has good upward momentum (RSI, MACD) at the moment and should easily break though...A year ago there were Gaps in this price region so I would not be surprised if a Gap up (closing a gap) occurred after the resistance break through.
The chart sees the downside risk (fail to break resistance) as minimal at the moment.
An update chart will follow when I get time.

[kiora]

Thanks Hoop
Cool use of charts there

[Hoop]

Price currently $2.14
Attempting to bust through the last of the resistances as I type, after that the buyer momentum energy has a free run up for a while.

[Lease]

Both fundamentally and technically show VGL is recovering.

[youngatheart]

Does VGL have any connection with AMC Cinemas in the US? 98% of their cinemas are expected to re open before 28/3

[Lease]

Does VGL have any connection with AMC Cinemas in the US? 98% of their cinemas are expected to re open before 28/3

Not specifically mentioned but VGL have 50% market share in US covering nearly $17,000 screens. Surely VGL will benefit from cinemas re-open.

[Jaa]

Cinema closes look inevitable across the US.

The movie-theater chain Alamo Drafthouse Cinema has filed for bankruptcy and is being sold (https://www.businessinsider.com/alamo-drafthouse-cinema-files-for-bankruptcy-announces-sale-2021-3)

[Lease]

Cinema closes look inevitable across the US.The movie-theater chain Alamo Drafthouse Cinema has filed for bankruptcy and is being sold (https://www.businessinsider.com/alamo-drafthouse-cinema-files-for-bankruptcy-announces-sale-2021-3)The operator can't bear the loss thus sold. The purchaser continues the cinema operation. No impact on VGL.

[Lease]

Vista Entertainment Solutions CEO is extremely bullish. Spent another over $300k to buy their own shares.

[Shareguy]

This company interests me and is on my watch list. I have real concerns though that the effects of COVID-19 are only just coming through with lots of closures around the world and in a number of countries ,Coverd 19 is getting out of control again. When I spoke to my broker about it he said he doesn’t like the stock and is concerned that the new norm will be widespread screening of blockbusters online.

[daveypnz]

Vista have said that in every country where Cinemas are fully open, people have returned in numbers. They also used the analogy that people still go to restaurants despite being able to cook at home. In fact a better analogy would be that people still go to restaurants despite being able to have food delivered to their door. Obviously the restaurant still makes money off food deliveries (whereas cinemas don't make money from streaming, generally) but you still see restaurants packed, which is the point.

People said that TV and then DVD would kill cinemas, but it didn't. Streaming is obviously more of a threat to cable TV and DVD, which are both dying; the latter is basically already dead.

On an anecdotal note, Hoyts EntX in Christchurch is a massive success and I think you'll see more upmarket cinemas that combine dining and other experiences going forward.

[NZSilver]

Ticking along nicely

[daveypnz]

I'm a recent holder as a recovery play but need to do more homework to decide if this is a long term hold. Does anyone know why the share price stagnated from 2015-mid 2018 despite posting strong growth numbers?

[Leftfield]

I'm a recent holder as a recovery play but need to do more homework to decide if this is a long term hold. Does anyone know why the share price stagnated from 2015-mid 2018 despite posting strong growth numbers?

a.) Dilution. Caused by Cap Raise. Check out the 2020 Company Announcements.
b.) Change in market sentiment due to Covid and Streaming. Will movies survive?

Disc - Don't hold. GLH.

[daveypnz]

a.) Dilution. Caused by Cap Raise. Check out the 2020 Company Announcements.
b.) Change in market sentiment due to Covid and Streaming. Will movies survive?

Disc - Don't hold. GLH.

No, I mean well before covid; 2015-mid 2018. Stock popped from 2018-mid 2019 before crashing which was due to lowering guidance. They posted strong growth numbers from 2015-2017 but the stock barely moved.

[peat]

a littile bit of global domination and some fund got into them in a big big way and pushed things around and then they bailed so high volatility over the last couple of years or so and only half of that was covid but is a big hit to the cinema industry no on can deny.

I've managed to get break even now. Am reconsidering if this could be the death knell of cinemas.

[daveypnz]

Big pop this morning on no news?

[Lease]

Big pop this morning on no news?

No need to have news. This is a clear recovery stock with SaaS involved.

Global SaaS median P/S ratio came to over 16 by 31/12/2020. https://www.saas-capital.com/blog-posts/2021-private-saas-company-valuations/

But the ratio of VGL is less than 4, largely undervalued.

[daveypnz]

Back down to earth today, low volume though. High volume yesterday.

Positive news: https://www.scmp.com/news/people-culture/trending-china/article/3130069/china-fantasy-fans-flock-cinemas-tolkiens-lord

Possibly was the reason for the pump yesterday.

[daveypnz]

Not a pro with technical analysis but closed above the $2.41 price level that was rejected in a big way last June and rejected again last week.

[Lease]

Not a pro with technical analysis but closed above the $2.41 price level that was rejected in a big way last June and rejected again last week.

This one will reach my target price of $2.80.

[X-men]

Hold quiet a bit..... people still can not travel overseas..so many will spend on eating out, shopping, movies

[daveypnz]

Buying opportunity today? Big drop on very low volume and seemingly no news, perhaps Sydney covid scare or just a victim of the wider pullback in tech on the NASDAQ.

[X-men]

Big volume yesterday n today was a negative sentiment

[daveypnz]

Got a bit filled @ $2.40

[X-men]

Aunty Fisher reduced thier holding

[daveypnz]

Interesting, explains the big volume the past two days. Obviously plenty of willing buyers.

[X-men]

She might bought back a bit to hold up the price

[daveypnz]

https://www.odt.co.nz/star-news/star-lifestyle/star-entertainment/new-cinema-complex-open-christchurch-july

Not directly related to Vista but a positive sign for the industry.

[X-men]

Great buying today..got a big chunk again

[Lease]

AGM is two weeks away, expect some good news by then.

[X-men]

That what I see too...many new blockbuster movies have been released. Europe n US are now eased.

People have money and got sick of lockdown... spending on retailers, malls movies as most of them don't want to travel yet.

So...I am expecting pretty good recovery as fundies are accumulating. Big support now on the SP based on the daily trading

[X-men]

Here we go....

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/12/eu-economic-forecasts-may-2021.html

[X-men]

Wow...took weeks n months for sp to reach $2.40 ish...3 days trading to destroy it...wow

[X-men]

Memorial Day box office could be first to top $100 million since pandemic began

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/28/memorial-day-box-office-could-be-first-to-top-100-million-during-pandemic.html?__source=androidappshare

[X-men]

Finally good news!!

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/01/movie-theaters-made-a-comeback-over-memorial-day-weekend.html?__source=androidappshare

[X-men]

great announcement !!


Vista Group Confirms Improved Cashflow PositionVista Group International Limited (NZX & ASX:VGL) advises that its cashflow position continues to improve as aresult of the increase in cinema openings (more than 83% open globally1), the strong return of moviegoers in keymarkets, and the resulting improvement in the financial position of Vista Group’s cinema customers.When the 2020 Annual Report was released in March 2021, Vista Group advised the market that it expected cashburn of between $3m and $4m per month for 2021 until a steady release of films returned. At its AnnualShareholders’ Meeting in May 2021, Vista Group updated this guidance noting that it was tracking towards thebottom end of that range.Since early May Vista Group’s cash receipts have exceeded expectations, resulting in its current cashflowapproaching neutral. Average cash burn is now expected to be less than $2m per month for the first half of 2021.On the assumption that the current trajectory of cinema openings is sustained in key markets, Vista Group expectsits cashflow position to track positive for the second half of 2021.Kimbal Riley, Vista Group’s CEO, commented “Although there may be some way to go until the film industry hasfully recovered, we are delighted to see the number of cinemas open globally steadily increasing and the diverseslate of film releases drawing out eager moviegoers. This is great news for Vista Group’s customers and theindustry as a whole.”Vista Group will release its first half results on F

[olinz]

this is interesting:
https://celluloidjunkie.com/wire/vista-group-company-numero-launches-trusted-theatrical-box-office-services-in-europe/

I see Numero having a lot of potential. A direct competitor to Rentrak or what is now comScore. Rentrak actually took legal action against VGL many years ago to try stop them competing in various markets.

Outside of direct cinema management software, VGL has a few good companies within the cinema ecosystem.... another being Movio

[Sideshow Bob]

Vista Cloud launch expands horizon for Vista Group - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/378052)

ista Cloud launch expands horizon for Vista Group

27/8/2021, 8:31 amHALFYR[Auckland, NZ, 27 August 2021]: Vista Group International (NZX & ASX: VGL) announces its 2021 Half Year result today, reporting strong results amidst a wider industry recovery and a free flow of movies into cinemas globally.

Highlights

• Promising box office recovery with an exciting film slate of Hollywood blockbusters out to end 2022
• Strong first half result with good underlying recurring revenue growth
• Vista Cloud launched on time and on budget, expanding the opportunity within cinema
• Movio core technology transformation delivers improved insights across the industry
• Establishment of a development hub in Mexico

Key Financial Metrics

• Total revenue $44.9m, in line with the first half of 2020 (‘1H20’), recurring revenue up 13%
• Positive operating cashflow of $1.0m and reduced cash burn, an average of $1.6m per month for the last six months
• EBITDA(1) profit of $6.4m, an improvement of $12.9m compared to 1H20
• Loss before tax of $2.1m, an improvement of $47.9m compared to 1H20
Key Operational Metrics
• Launch of Vista Cloud
• Active moviegoers and connections in Movio Cinema trending up strongly
• Good uptake of Vista Digital, now 142 sites
• Maintained 51% market share of the 20+ screens segment (excluding China)

Guidance

Assuming the current level of cinema opening is sustained at around 80% in key markets and the film release schedule remains on track, Vista Group expects revenue for the full year to 31 December 2021 to be in the range of $95m - $100m, and to be EBITDA(1) and cash flow positive for the second half of 2021.

Please refer to the following attachments for full details of the result:
• 2021 VGL Interim Report
• 2021 Half Year Result Investor Presentation
• 2021 Half Year Result Media Announcement
• 2021 Half Year NZX Results Announcement

Matt Cawte
Chief Financial Officer
Vista Group International Limited
Contact: +64 9 984 4570

[Lease]

very impressed results!

[Lease]

As the world move towards "live with Covid", life will largely return to normal. Cinemas will all re-open and people rush in movies. VGL will perform strongly, and hopefully SP can return to previous peak.

[Mista_Trix]

As the world move towards "live with Covid", life will largely return to normal. Cinemas will all re-open and people rush in movies. VGL will perform strongly, and hopefully SP can return to previous peak.

The opposite could be said also though right. As we learn to live post covid, people are now used to consuming all their media at home and see little need for the cinema experience. Personally I haven't been to the cinema in about 2 years, neither has anyone I know or younger, I'm 38. We're the download generation(s).

There's so few movies that benefit from watching in the cinema; e.g. rom coms, comedy, drama do not. Action does, but most action movies have terrible plots... even the ones with big budgets (Star Wars Rise of Skywalker I'm looking at you).

[Lease]

The opposite could be said also though right. As we learn to live post covid, people are now used to consuming all their media at home and see little need for the cinema experience. Personally I haven't been to the cinema in about 2 years, neither has anyone I know or younger, I'm 38. We're the download generation(s).

There's so few movies that benefit from watching in the cinema; e.g. rom coms, comedy, drama do not. Action does, but most action movies have terrible plots... even the ones with big budgets (Star Wars Rise of Skywalker I'm looking at you).

Well agree. There are some habit changes through Covid but cinemas provide unique experience which iPad can't replace. Also group of friends and families love to enjoy popcorns and watch movies together, and I don't think that will going to change.

[Mista_Trix]

Well agree. There are some habit changes through Covid but cinemas provide unique experience which iPad can't replace. Also group of friends and families love to enjoy popcorns and watch movies together, and I don't think that will going to change.

We watch simulcast on Plex. 3 households all watch a movie at the same time. If you've got a big enough tv and good enough speakers the experience is comparable as you're taking out cost and hassle. Build un a scheduled break time and all the households can go make popcorn. The times have changed.