MPG - Metro Glass

[Brain]

What lesson did you learn nomis? What is the thing you won't do again? What will help me identify the next MPG?[/QUOTE]

No lessons to be learnt from this. The next MPG will take some other form and catch investors out once again. We investors do not have a complete understanding of companies, irrespective of how diligently we read annual reports and the business news. A lot of directors and management come to work to eat their lunch and some of them are totally incompetent and it takes time for investors to work that out. Those that we recognise to be incompetent will be replaced by new directors or management which also may be incompetent. Fortunately we have been in a bull market for many years and it has been easy to make money. The dice have been loaded heavily in our favour. Now when the bear arrives (if it hasn’t already) the going will get very tough.

[Baa_Baa]

What lesson did you learn nomis? What is the thing you won't do again? What will help me identify the next MPG?


No lessons to be learnt from this.

How about:

1. If you have even a tiny bit of doubt with an IPO (and there was plenty of doubt here), but still want to buy it for some reason, buy with a stop loss at, or a tiny-ridiculously-close% below your IPO entry.

2. Refer to 1.

3. Monitor it very closely in the first few weeks or so, in case you're wrong.

In this case and some others, you'd be right.

[Brain]

How about:

1. If you have even a tiny bit of doubt with an IPO (and there was plenty of doubt here), but still want to buy it for some reason, buy with a stop loss at, or a tiny-ridiculously-close% below your IPO entry.

2. Refer to 1.

3. Monitor it very closely in the first few weeks or so, in case you're wrong.

In this case and some others, you'd be right.

I think it would be fair to say you would miss out on a lot of opportunities with that methodology. IPOs and doubt go hand in hand and a lot of them trade under issue price. Some are successful some are not.

[BlackPeter]

How about:

1. If you have even a tiny bit of doubt with an IPO (and there was plenty of doubt here), but still want to buy it for some reason, buy with a stop loss at, or a tiny-ridiculously-close% below your IPO entry.

2. Refer to 1.

3. Monitor it very closely in the first few weeks or so, in case you're wrong.

In this case and some others, you'd be right.

Good advise, however does not work every time - your investment still can easily turn to custard (i.e. use plenty of diversification as well).

Examples:
1) I used to have a stop loss for my (at that stage still smallish) MPG holding slightly below the MA200 - but the share price just did "fall through" at announcement time. Next time I looked the price was something like 30 cents below my stop loss and the stop loss not even triggered. Admittedly - with the benefit of hindsight I still should have sold at that stage, but this is another story.

2) I do have (for ages) a stop loss for CBL (currently in suspension). Just wondering what good it will do for me when they start trading again ...

So, yes - by all means use stop losses (they can be a good safety device), but just make sure you don't trust too much into them - they are not foolproof ;);

[carrom74]

"We have also had a situation where we have had a significant building boom," he said, adding that this was often the most dangerous time for a building business, "worse than a bust because it puts stress on subcontractors, services and the like"-----Sir Ralph on FBU's losses...

Applies to MPG too...

[Onion]

"We have also had a situation where we have had a significant building boom," he said, adding that this was often the most dangerous time for a building business, "worse than a bust because it puts stress on subcontractors, services and the like"-----Sir Ralph on FBU's losses...

Applies to MPG too...

"Worse than a bust ..." - Bulls...!

I don't believe that businesses are better off in a bust than a boom. There may well be subcontractor problems that arise but surely a company like MPG is better off bidding for business when there is plenty going on than struggling in a quiet time.

FBU didn't need to win every project going.

Both FBU and MPG have an option (actually an obligation to shareholders) of not accepting business that doesn't make money.

[winner69]

"Worse than a bust ..." - Bulls...!

I don't believe that businesses are better off in a bust than a boom. There may well be subcontractor problems that arise but surely a company like MPG is better off bidding for business when there is plenty going on than struggling in a quiet time.

FBU didn't need to win every project going.

Both FBU and MPG have an option (actually an obligation to shareholders) of not accepting business that doesn't make money.

‘Obligation’ to shareholders in not accepting business that doesn’t make money ...fair enough in an ideal world.

But one of the key drivers of even looking at this work (will make a profit in theory of course) is that the same greedy shareholders implore / demand the company grows or else they will be punished. Some might say without those shareholder demands they would take a more considered view.

[RTM]

‘Obligation’ to shareholders in not accepting business that doesn’t make money ...fair enough in an ideal world.

But one of the key drivers of even looking at this work (will make a profit in theory of course) is that the same greedy shareholders implore / demand the company grows or else they will be punished. Some might say without those shareholder demands they would take a more considered view.

That may be the case Winner, but then doesn’t it come down to the calibre of the Directors to make sure that appropriately prudent decisions are made ? I recall a year or so ago Raz (I think) questioning the calibre of NZ Directors, compared with what he had seen overseas...(USA?). This shimozzel with FBU is really very embarrassing all around for NZ. I f you head down that track, add in the problems with NZX holding companies or attracting new high quality ones, then really, why would you invest in NZ ? It’s certainly making me assess very carefully where any new investment money is going to go.
Disc. Not holding. Sold on one of the earlier warnings.

[JeremyALD]

85 cents! Now half of the IPO price.

People must have very gloomy views of MPG. Its worth about 150m even though they are tracking for 18m to 20m profit at a minimum this year. Are they really that bad a business?

[winner69]

85 cents! Now half of the IPO price.

People must have very gloomy views of MPG. Its worth about 150m even though they are tracking for 18m to 20m profit at a minimum this year. Are they really that bad a business?

Not tempted to give them another chance are we?

Punters probably think they have some Fletcher-esque ghosts in the cupboard. Apparently they have a few largish fixed price contracts as well.

Looking forward there probably going to be a bit of a hiatus in ‘above ground’ commercial construction as Fletcher’s wind down. That could inhibit Metro growth.

We said a buck was the bottom ....then 90 cents .....maybe it’s 80 cents now ...who knows

Think there will a trading update soon to put the market at ease?

[JeremyALD]

Not tempted to give them another chance are we?

Punters probably think they have some Fletcher-esque ghosts in the cupboard. Apparently they have a few largish fixed price contracts as well.

Looking forward there probably going to be a bit of a hiatus in ‘above ground’ commercial construction as Fletcher’s wind down. That could inhibit Metro growth.

We said a buck was the bottom ....then 90 cents .....maybe it’s 80 cents now ...who knows

Think there will a trading update soon to put the market at ease?

Well their strategy update is due to be announced in March so I think there'll be an update then. Would be nice to have a CEO announcement then as well too but that might be asking for too much

[JoeGrogan]

Not tempted to give them another chance are we?

Punters probably think they have some Fletcher-esque ghosts in the cupboard. Apparently they have a few largish fixed price contracts as well.

Looking forward there probably going to be a bit of a hiatus in ‘above ground’ commercial construction as Fletcher’s wind down. That could inhibit Metro growth.

We said a buck was the bottom ....then 90 cents .....maybe it’s 80 cents now ...who knows

Think there will a trading update soon to put the market at ease?

Lol mpg drops half the amount of fbu, surely the market thinks there’s something to come from MPG.

I note that MPG updated the market with a downgrade at the beginning of feb last year. Perhaps no news is good news ?

[steveb]

Given the price @ .86c today surely its time to stick a toe in on this one,PE of 8,dividend yield over 12% and and as joe above says perhaps no news is good news!

[RTM]

Lol mpg drops half the amount of fbu, surely the market thinks there’s something to come from MPG.

I note that MPG updated the market with a downgrade at the beginning of feb last year. Perhaps no news is good news ?

Surely quoting on Glass and Installation is a much much less complex task than what FBU were having to do ? There is a lot of building happening and to happen in New Zealand. So should they be tarred with the same brush ?
Not holding but wondering about dipping my toe in the water on this one.

[JeremyALD]

Surely quoting on Glass and Installation is a much much less complex task than what FBU were having to do ? There is a lot of building happening and to happen in New Zealand. So should they be tarred with the same brush ?
Not holding but wondering about dipping my toe in the water on this one.

You would think so but there literally hasn't been any love for this stock at all and it seems it's headed towards 70 cents faster than its headed for $1

[Balance]

Lol mpg drops half the amount of fbu, surely the market thinks there’s something to come from MPG.

I note that MPG updated the market with a downgrade at the beginning of feb last year. Perhaps no news is good news ?

How many downgrades so far?

Stay clear until there has been the third downgrade.

[winner69]

With a March 31 year end plenty of time for a bit of action

If things were going gangbusters I'm sure they would have told us by now ....January results out there

If things are doing OK they might not say anything until the announcement late May

And if things are not going to plan and there's a bit of explaining to do expect an announcement early March asfter they know whats happened up to end of February.

That's how I see it anyway

Wonder how the strategic review is going?

[JoeGrogan]

With a March 31 year end plenty of time for a bit of action

If things were going gangbusters I'm sure they would have told us by now ....January results out there

If things are doing OK they might not say anything until the announcement late May

And if things are not going to plan and there's a bit of explaining to do expect an announcement early March asfter they know whats happened up to end of February.

That's how I see it anyway

Wonder how the strategic review is going?

Yeah based on no update things up until jan 31 must have been tracking to the 18.5-20m guidance given? or maybe they are just waiting till next month to hide it with the CEO news.

Regardless this will be stuck in the 80s (or lower) until the market has some kind of update. IMO the current share price & sentiment suggests the market expects a downgrade... will be an interesting couple of months.

[Arbroath]

Yeah based on no update things up until jan 31 must have been tracking to the 18.5-20m guidance given? or maybe they are just waiting till next month to hide it with the CEO news.

Regardless this will be stuck in the 80s (or lower) until the market has some kind of update. IMO the current share price & sentiment suggests the market expects a downgrade... will be an interesting couple of months.

I think given the share price the Board/Mgmt should either be issuing the downgrade that the market seems to be pricing in or re-iterating that they are on track for $18.5-20m as previously announced to reassure what looks like a pretty nervy market??

[Balance]

Yeah based on no update things up until jan 31 must have been tracking to the 18.5-20m guidance given? or maybe they are just waiting till next month to hide it with the CEO news.

Regardless this will be stuck in the 80s (or lower) until the market has some kind of update. IMO the current share price & sentiment suggests the market expects a downgrade... will be an interesting couple of months.

New CEO will want a good clean up before he really takes over.

Third downgrade coming.

[Balance]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MPG/314676/275087.pdf

Chairman (of NZOG fame) increases his shareholding.

[Arbroath]

That's the risk but I see the new Chairman has bought 50k at 86c a few days ago - that would seem pretty silly if there were some proper skeletons in the closet

[Balance]

That's the risk but I see the new Chairman has bought 50k at 86c a few days ago - that would seem pretty silly if there were some proper skeletons in the closet

Wouldn't read anything into it myself.

Recall director/management purchasing shares at well above $1.00?

https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/mpg.nzx-296599/

Dean Brown, CFO - $1.58

https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/mpg.nzx-302074/

Peter Griffiths - $1.41

https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/mpg.nzx-306273/

Peter Griffiths again - $1.10

[Arbroath]

Fair point - definitely not saying it's all clear but it does indicate some confidence that there's no big issues assuming the Chair has some kind of grip on life.

I think the share price probably remains $0.80-$1.00 until they demonstrate some margin / Npat growth which won't be any earlier than HI 19 result in November.

[JoeGrogan]

Wouldn't read anything into it myself.

Recall director/management purchasing shares at well above $1.00?

https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/mpg.nzx-296599/

Dean Brown, CFO - $1.58

https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/mpg.nzx-302074/

Peter Griffiths - $1.41

https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/mpg.nzx-306273/

Peter Griffiths again - $1.10

Third downgrade? when were the first two, or do these downgrade rules apply to prior financial years?

With financial results known by the company till the end of jan 31, would seem weird that the chairman would be buying 50k knowing impending doom. But hey i'm prepared for the worst lol.

[winner69]

Wouldn't read anything into it myself.

Recall director/management purchasing shares at well above $1.00?

https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/mpg.nzx-296599/

Dean Brown, CFO - $1.58

https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/mpg.nzx-302074/

Peter Griffiths - $1.41

https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/mpg.nzx-306273/

Peter Griffiths again - $1.10

And Rigby topped up at $1.10

Probably hoping price improves before his final day ....has over 5 mill ...hope he doesn’t dump in one day

[winner69]

Obviously on track to make about $20m

Reasonably solid performance ...making $20m odd for 3 years in a row.

Pity the finance guys hyped this up so much to start with .....and then the market per se (shareholders) demanded even more ....expectations were totally unrealistic and were never going to be met.

Will be interesting what 5hey come out with in a month or two. Hope they don’t start re-hyping things again

PS - bit of catching up to do to beat MVN

[carrom74]

Obviously on track to make about $20m

Reasonably solid performance ...making $20m odd for 3 years in a row.

Pity the finance guys hyped this up so much to start with .....and then the market per se (shareholders) demanded even more ....expectations were totally unrealistic and were never going to be met.

Will be interesting what 5hey come out with in a month or two. Hope they don’t start re-hyping things again

PS - bit of catching up to do to beat MVN

W69-No news is good news... as you pointed out they should report a NPAT of $20M, having said that is there any outside chance of a trading update before March 31st? or in other words"Cyclone bad news Metro" has missed the coast??:cool:

[winner69]

Stats NZ headline is Building Consents flat in January

In acrual numbers up nearly 10% on Jan last year

All good for Metro ...most undervalued stock on the NZX50?

[Filthy]

most undervalued stock on the NZX50?

yep. a ‘bad result’ has already been priced in by mr market eh W69.

assuming we are now looking down the barrel of ‘anything better than bad’, then I agree - it looks oversold

could be a reasonable chance of a 20-30% climb from these levels come May

.....bargain? ;)

[Balance]

Stats NZ headline is Building Consents flat in January

In acrual numbers up nearly 10% on Jan last year

All good for Metro ...most undervalued stock on the NZX50?

Don't try and catch a falling knife.

Third downgrade yet?

[JeremyALD]

yep. a ‘bad result’ has already been priced in by mr market eh W69.

assuming we are now looking down the barrel of ‘anything better than bad’, then I agree - it looks oversold

could be a reasonable chance of a 20-30% climb from these levels come May

.....bargain? ;)

I thought that at $1.30, $1.10 and 90 cents so who knows it's a dangerous ride. MPG has done anything but aspire any confidence.

[Beagle]

Don't try and catch a falling knife.

Third downgrade yet?

Yes looking increasingly likely. Interestingly since the infamous major downgrade of August 2017 where it plunged 30 cents its never recovered above the 100 day MA and has stayed in a consistent overall downtrend. Basic TA would suggest stay well away for now. Vast amounts of trouble in the building industry, why would this one be exempt ?

[Brain]

The chairman Peter Griffiths brought 50,000 shares late last month. Hopefully this is a good sign that the situation hasn’t deteriorated further.

[Balance]

The chairman Peter Griffiths brought 50,000 shares late last month. Hopefully this is a good sign that the situation hasn’t deteriorated further.

Same Peter Griffiths of NZOG fame?

[Balance]

The chairman Peter Griffiths brought 50,000 shares late last month. Hopefully this is a good sign that the situation hasn’t deteriorated further.

Wouldn't read anything into it myself.

Recall director/management purchasing shares at well above $1.00?

https://stocknessmonster.com/announc...pg.nzx-296599/

Dean Brown, CFO - $1.58

https://stocknessmonster.com/announc...pg.nzx-302074/

Peter Griffiths - $1.41

https://stocknessmonster.com/announc...pg.nzx-306273/

Peter Griffiths again - $1.10

[bullfrog]

What I look for in this sector is consistency. In an environment where lowest tender wins, it’s tightly run companies that will make a modest profit, regardless of whether it’s a boom or bust. If you think metro has a good track record, strategy, and internal processes to control costs/review bids, then it’s a buy imo. It’s just as hard to make money in a boom as a bust. Saw today another construction company going to the wall.

[Beagle]

What I look for in this sector is consistency. In an environment where lowest tender wins, it’s tightly run companies that will make a modest profit, regardless of whether it’s a boom or bust. If you think metro has a good track record, strategy, and internal processes to control costs/review bids, then it’s a buy imo. It’s just as hard to make money in a boom as a bust. Saw today another construction company going to the wall.

Seeing as they've engaged external consultants to review those matters that doesn't give a lot of confidence does it !

[Balance]

Seeing as they've engaged external consultants to review those matters that doesn't give a lot of confidence does it !




May 2017 : Warren Buffett will go to great lengths to stop Berkshire Hathaway using consultants. “If the board hires a compensation consultant after I’m gone, I will come back,” he promised its annual shareholder meeting on Saturday.

[bullfrog]

Seeing as they've engaged external consultants to review those matters that doesn't give a lot of confidence does it !
Agreed, I hope it’s just a bit of confirmation bias that the exec need. After all it’s what exec get paid the big bucks for, if they can’t do that, what are they doing? Yes.... it’s to reassure themselves that it’s all good under the hood. Yes, that’s it.....

[JeremyALD]

Maybe reducing their debt would be a good start. I wonder if they'll sell some of their businesses.

[winner69]

Jeez, you guys really have it in for Metro

A tainted view from losing money?

An untainted view is a pretty solid company making pretty good financial returns (above industry average ebit margins) that unfortunately has suffered from too much interference from financiers and fund managers who though they knew how to run a glass business. This ‘strategic review’ is just window dressing (at shareholders expense) to deflect the blame for perceived failures from those same financiers.

[Beagle]

Agreed, I hope it’s just a bit of confirmation bias that the exec need. After all it’s what exec get paid the big bucks for, if they can’t do that, what are they doing? Yes.... it’s to reassure themselves that it’s all good under the hood. Yes, that’s it.....

Have you been listening to too much of Jascinda's relentless positivity school of thought :)

[trader_jackson]

Probably will be leaving the NZX 50 soon
That isn't something to be relentlessly positive about

[Balance]

Probably will be leaving the NZX 50 soon
That isn't something to be relentlessly positive about

Sobering - market cap of $150m now well below the likes of PEB $181m (removed from index back in 2015) and STU $189m (removed 2016).

Even Tegel (removed 2017) has a bigger free float of $180m!

REview due any day now so funds selling down in anticipation?

[carrom74]

Don't try and catch a falling knife.

Third downgrade yet?

80cents now... Third downgrade soon Balance?

[Brain]

There is always two sides to the coin and clearly the punters buying think there will be no downgrade and the people selling think Metro is going to the dogs. Time will tell who is right.

[Arbroath]

Think it is more about going to be kicked out of the NZX50 in a week or so. Market cap too low to stay in and prob some funds trying to sell down with low liquidity.

[Brain]

Think it is more about going to be kicked out of the NZX50 in a week or so. Market cap too low to stay in and prob some funds trying to sell down with low liquidity.

Yes I think you are right. It is making people very nervous though.

[minimoke]

REview due any day now so funds selling down in anticipation?More importantly which two companies will enter the 50 with CBL and MPG gone

[winner69]

More importantly which two companies will enter the 50 with CBL and MPG gone

HLG might get another go ...kicked out a few years ago

Spread the word ...needs a boost

[Beagle]

Oh my goodness...you'd be a brave man to step in front of this train doing 100 m.p.g...opps, sorry meant miles per hour downhill and yes I almost forgot, third Friday in the last month of each quarter is index rebalancing day with the shuffle announced the Friday beforehand, i.e. after market close this Friday.
HLG to come on in from the cold and enjoy some institutional love ?
HLG market cap at $4.60 = $273m, less Timothy Glassons 20% stake = free float of $218.4m

[minimoke]

HLG might get another go ...kicked out a few years ago

Spread the word ...needs a boost
Thought I should check l the Market Cap list. CBL is sitting at #51 on $747m and then THL on $727m. HLG a wee way down on $272m. Got a fair bit of ramping to shift them up teh list. (Even PEB is above MPG)

[trader_jackson]

More importantly which two companies will enter the 50 with CBL and MPG gone

One of them won't be making it back into any index, and the other probably won't (in my view).
OCA will be there in the not so distant future

[winner69]

With MPG really really cheap at the moment let’s think about the future

Construction activity to remain strong .... good eh

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/921a1ccf/nz-construction-activity-to-remain-strong-even-as-population-growth-slows-rlb-says.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NZ%20construction%20activity%20to%20r emain%20strong%20even%20as%20population%20growth%2 0slows%20RLB%20says&utm_content=NZ%20construction%20activity%20to%20re main%20strong%20even%20as%20population%20growth%20 slows%20RLB%20says+CID_91a6b36f0f475443f1b06307fb2 7250b&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle921a1ccfnz-construction-activity-to-remain-strong-even-as-population-growth-slows-rlb-sayshtml

[Balance]

With MPG really really cheap at the moment let’s think about the future

Construction activity to remain strong .... good eh

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/921a1ccf/nz-construction-activity-to-remain-strong-even-as-population-growth-slows-rlb-says.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NZ%20construction%20activity%20to%20r emain%20strong%20even%20as%20population%20growth%2 0slows%20RLB%20says&utm_content=NZ%20construction%20activity%20to%20re main%20strong%20even%20as%20population%20growth%20 slows%20RLB%20says+CID_91a6b36f0f475443f1b06307fb2 7250b&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle921a1ccfnz-construction-activity-to-remain-strong-even-as-population-growth-slows-rlb-sayshtml

D -Day on index changes today - let's see what happens first?

Could be even cheaper stocks when the index funds have to sell if MPG gets kicked out.

[SilverBack]

Don't forget that Australian EBITDA is 18% of total and 20% of revenue and is increasing. Aus residential construction is likely to decrease soon but this should not affect retrofitting of double glazed items that MPG is promoting over there.

[Valleytrader]

Metro out of NZX50 and MidCap index.

[winner69]

Metro out of NZX50 and MidCap index.

They did get ADDED to the Small Cap Index

[Balance]

They did get ADDED to the Small Cap Index

How do you get into the Small Cap Index?

You start with a big company in the NZX50 and appoint external consultants :D

[hardt]

How do you get into the Small Cap Index?

You start with a big company in the NZX50 and appoint external consultants :D

It hurts how accurate this has proven to be.

[Balance]

It hurts how accurate this has proven to be.

There is hope - suspect that MPG sp has fallen a bit harder than it should due to expectations of NZX50 exit (proven right) and who they appoint as CEO will be critical.

If they appoint a CEO with great credentials (like Ralph Waters into FBU when it was broken), could be start of change in MPG's fortunes.

[winner69]

Warriors start the season in brilliant fashion ...this is going to be their season ....the serial under performer will be title contenders in 2018

Metro glass under a new coach will also be a contender for the stock of the year

Both reached the depths of despair ...Metro so cheap it’s not funny ....but thats behind them both now ....all go for the future

The signs are there

[BlackPeter]

No doubt - FBU will make an outrageous takeover offer out of their petty cash account ;);

While I agree that there should be value am I not sure where I see the stock bottoming out. Predicting a bottom at this point is clearly not based on TA signals, isn't it?

And lets face it - Labour's ineptness to solve the housing crisis (they will make it worse by fighting the landlords, the investors and the industry) combined with the general woes of our building industry are not really helping towards a quick recovery.

[Leftfield]

Warriors start the season in brilliant fashion ...this is going to be their season ....the serial under performer will be title contenders in 2018

Metro glass under a new coach will also be a contender for the stock of the year

Both reached the depths of despair ...Metro so cheap it’s not funny ....but thats behind them both now ....all go for the future

The signs are there

Mmmmm ... are you holding? Or just hoping and ramping?

[winner69]

Mmmmm ... are you holding? Or just hoping and ramping?

I thought I was watching another exciting turn around an hour ago ....Tiger Woods nearly won a tournament ....but from where he’s been second is pretty amazing

Everything seems to be pointing to MPG to be one of the stars of the NZX this year.

[t.rexjr]

Mmmmm ... are you holding? Or just hoping and ramping?

All 3 is my guess

[Leftfield]

I thought I was watching another exciting turn around an hour ago ....Tiger Woods nearly won a tournament ....but from where he’s been second is pretty amazing

Everything seems to be pointing to MPG to be one of the stars of the NZX this year.

I think you'll find today's SP decline is due to MPG being dropped from one of the NZX's indexes. Hardly a good sign. GLH.

[mshierlaw]

I think you'll find today's SP decline is due to MPG being dropped from one of the NZX's indexes. Hardly a good sign. GLH.

Open 80c, close 80c. Thats fake news.

[Leftfield]

Open 80c, close 80c. Thats fake news.

Fake news - yes me guilty! :ohmy: (I posted mid day when MPG was sliding down, but it ended up even for the day.)

However, the following graph showing MPG's performance v the NZX top 50 is not fake news.

Only brave or foolish people fight the trend IMHO. One day when the trend reverses MPG may redeem itself, however until that time I'll be staying well away. GLH.

9552

[mshierlaw]

Fake news - yes me guilty! :ohmy: (I posted mid day when MPG was sliding down, but it ended up even for the day.)

However, the following graph showing MPG's performance v the NZX top 50 is not fake news.

Only brave or foolish people fight the trend IMHO. One day when the trend reverses MPG may redeem itself, however until that time I'll be staying well away. GLH.

9552

Sorry, I couldn't resist that one, I must have Presidential aspirations. Waiting next announcement to see if there is another cliff.

[Leftfield]

Sorry, I couldn't resist that one, I must have Presidential aspirations. Waiting next announcement to see if there is another cliff.

All cool.......take care out there! ;)

[Balance]

All cool.......take care out there! ;)

Best I have heard from a glazier who has some MPG shares :

Why don't they change the company's name to Metro Non-Performing Glass until they actual start performing!

I suggested he make a request to the NZX to get the code change to MNG - actually, DOG may be more appropriate until such time the sp gets back above IPO level.

[Balance]

Where's the growth?

A company in trouble, bought cheap by private equity, financially engineered now to sell into a strong market?

Forgot I wrote this on 2 July 2014 - second posting on this thread actually.

So do watch very carefully if I decide to punt on this sucker!

[bullfrog]

Question: pg 72 of annual report lists top 20 shareholders, but then lists substantial shareholders on the next page. What is the difference and why are substantial shareholders not shown on the top 20 list?
Supplementary question: Which of the shareholders listed have “stoploss” triggers such as exit from the nzx50, etc, which of course will tell us if we’re at the top or bottom of the cliff.
Of course this list may/will have substantially changed over the past 9 months...

[BlackPeter]

Question: pg 72 of annual report lists top 20 shareholders, but then lists substantial shareholders on the next page. What is the difference and why are substantial shareholders not shown on the top 20 list?


I didn't check the report (i.e. this is a generic response), but in general are "substantial shareholders" shareholders who hold more than 5% of all shares. For this exercise will be holdings of the same person eligible to vote but spread over several holdings be added up (e.g. you might hold some of your shares personally, some through a family trust you are controlling and some through a company you are director of and some more through a company the company you are controlling has purchased).

Some of your substantial shareholders will control several holdings, which together are substantial but on its own may or may not make it into the Top 20 (and in any case have a different name than yours);

Top 20 shareholders are just the top 20 holdings under their legal name, irrespective of who is controlling them ... If you take the example above, than one shareholder might control three of the top 20 holdings.




Supplementary question: Which of the shareholders listed have “stoploss” triggers such as exit from the nzx50, etc, which of course will tell us if we’re at the top or bottom of the cliff.

This is a rhetoric question, isn't it? However - in general are stocks dropping out of an index not falling down a cliff (look e.g. what happened when HLG left the index). There is however likely to be some ripple.

[Scrunch]

A specific example is that a lot of funds hold there shares through custodians. The custodian becomes a top 20 shareholder but represents many funds. The funds themselves aren't that larger shareholder.

[Brain]

A specific example is that a lot of funds hold there shares through custodians. The custodian becomes a top 20 shareholder but represents many funds. The funds themselves aren't that larger shareholder.

Can anybody tell me why a fund would hold shares through a custodian. Why have this extra layer?

[hardt]

Can anybody tell me why a fund would hold shares through a custodian. Why have this extra layer?

In the event the fund gets into trouble, investors are safeguarded... also admin n all that shi.

[Balance]

Much was made of MPG going into NZX50 and fund managers like Milford & Harbour building up decent stakes in the company.

So what do posters think the sp will be for all the index funds to get out at close of business today?

[t.rexjr]

Much was made of MPG going into NZX50 and fund managers like Milford & Harbour building up decent stakes in the company.

So what do posters think the sp will be for all the index funds to get out at close of business today?

Surely they don't dump on market? Would have thought most would be 'transfered' to a differnt fund?

[Balance]

Surely they don't dump on market? Would have thought most would be 'transfered' to a differnt fund?

6.688m shares traded today.

SP steady however so sign that the market had already factored in an exit for MPG.

[bullfrog]

Thanks BP, makes sense. Hmmmm, transferring to a different fund, that’s interesting, good point trex, makes me think that dropping out of the top 50 may not always mean a big fund sell off.

[winner69]

6.688m shares traded today.

SP steady however so sign that the market had already factored in an exit for MPG.

Wonder when Rigby going to sell his 5 million odd shares ....leaves in a few days

[JCM]

Close to 6.7m traded today at a VWAP OF 77c, with another 800k worth of buys queued up between 73-76c. There have been around 6 bigger trading days in terms of volume since the IPO.

Who thinks that this is the bottom?


Wonder when Rigby going to sell his 5 million odd shares ....leaves in a few days

Do you think he'd be looking to offload shares with the sp still in the gutter?

[Balance]

Close to 6.7m traded today at a VWAP OF 77c, with another 800k worth of buys queued up between 73-76c. There have been around 6 bigger trading days in terms of volume since the IPO.

Who thinks that this is the bottom?



Do you think he'd be looking to offload shares with the sp still in the gutter?


He has held those shares since the IPO and could have sold at above $2.00 when the shares were riding high.

So whether he sells now depends on so many factors like :

Where he perceives value to be,

If he needs the money to fund life and businesses after MPG (I note his total remuneration has been very generous for the pathetic job he has done at MPG),

Whether he has already been selling!

Only he can answer the above questions.

[winner69]

Balance - most of Rigby’s share are pre IPO and didn’t cost him much if anything (incentives eh)

If he had been selling we would have seen some notices eh

Whether he sells may also depend on whether he’s really pissed off with the company (sorry he resigned) or still has some empathy and love and sees that what he’s put in place is worth $1.50

[Beagle]

Balance - most of Rigby’s share are pre IPO and didn’t cost him much if anything (incentives eh)

If he had been selling we would have seen some notices eh

Whether he sells may also depend on whether he’s really pissed off with the company (sorry he resigned) or still has some empathy and love and sees that what he’s put in place is worth $1.50

Market says its worth just half that now, another all time low of just 75 cents. Very pleased I sold when they breeched the $1 level. Classic case in portfolio management.
Never hold shares in a confirmed downtrend. Acknowledge that from time to time you WILL makes mistakes, (nobody ever gets 100% of their picks right) and own up to your mistakes and take the loss on the chin and move on. Wonder how that comprehensive business review program is going...whenever a company hires expensive outside consultants to tell them how to run their business you have to wonder, isn't that what management are being paid the big bucks for and are supposed to know how to do already ?
No if's and no but's, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

[Kay]

Market says its worth just half that now, another all time low of just 75 cents. Very pleased I sold when they breeched the $1 level. Classic case in portfolio management.
Never hold shares in a confirmed downtrend. Acknowledge that from time to time you WILL makes mistakes, (nobody ever gets 100% of their picks right) and own up to your mistakes and take the loss on the chin and move on. Wonder how that comprehensive business review program is going...whenever a company hires expensive outside consultants to tell them how to run their business you have to wonder, isn't that what management are being paid the big bucks for and are supposed to know how to do already ?
No if's and no but's, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

I bought back in today. Possibly missed something but if they hit the lower end of their forcast net profit 18.5m (which I assume must be there or there abouts as we end march with no downgrades thus far) ...they have a p/e of just over 7 and a 8-10% ish dividend on the way.

[Beagle]

Good luck, downgrades usually come in three's.

[Kay]

Maybe so...but it's a nice price if you ignore the chart (not something I am advising!)

[Baa_Baa]

it's a nice price if you ignore the chart

For posterity, this is going to join other famous last words in my trading diary.

🙈🙉🙊

[percy]

Maybe so...but it's a nice price if you ignore the chart (not something I am advising!)

Well I know if you had brought HBL every time it had gone below the 180 day moving average [major sell signal], over the past 5 years you would have made a lot of money.
Not a lot of people know that.!
However, you would have to be very brave to try it with MPD.I wouldn't.

[Kay]

Well I know if you had brought HBL every time it had gone below the 180 day moving average [major sell signal], over the past 5 years you would have made a lot of money.
Not a lot of people know that.!
However, you would have too be very brave to try it with MPD.I wouldn't.


Well I do buy shares with a buy-low and take-a-punt attitude.

And whenever I buy a cheap high dividend stock I seem to greatly increase my capital before long.

However, if I am wrong at least I have the consolation of featuring in Baa Baas diary!

[carrom74]

Well I do buy shares with a buy-low and take-a-punt attitude.

And whenever I buy a cheap high dividend stock I seem to greatly increase my capital before long.

However, if I am wrong at least I have the consolation of featuring in Baa Baas diary!
You are not alone Kay... if all the traders follow TA then there will be no place for us.. I just hope your name are not on the diary!

[Valleytrader]

I would be keen to dip my toe in again if it had positive net tangible assets per share. However having bought some at 1.24 and 1.06, I think I have enough exposure to a company whose net asset value is less than it's intangible asset value.

[Baa_Baa]

I would be keen to dip my toe in again if it had positive net tangible assets per share. However having bought some at 1.24 and 1.06, I think I have enough exposure to a company whose net asset value is less than it's intangible asset value.

Kay might be right buying now, who would really know, but it's a toss of the dice as there's nothing to suggest it's the actual bottom of a sustained downtrend, maybe right, maybe not.

Market sentiment is everything if you're sensitive to capital losses or gains. Whether or not MPG is a viable long term investment proposition, it should be clear and obvious now that the IPO was way over promoted and the current SP and its sustained down trend is a reflection of the market view.

Ignore the charts which show a clear and obvious downtrend (perhaps, but not convincingly approaching a bottom), seems like 'decide in haste, repent at leisure'. I will not rub anyones decision in the their face now or later, but it might be prudent to just observe for awhile and if it turns, buy the confirmed uptrend.

No one is saying MPG is a complete basket case, so eventually it will turn, or maybe not, for reasons beyond me. But buying into a long term confirmed downtrend is spitting in the face of the market, which usually is a good indicator of sentiment.

BAA

[Gonzo]

would all the funds needing to sell out of the NZX 50 index already have sold

[JoeGrogan]

I was stopped out of this last time, but i'm getting pretty tempted at these levels. However, i will wait until an update (if there even is one), when ol' Rigby says goodbye maybe?

[JeremyALD]

Funny that July last year the market was regaining some confidence in MPG after a positive investor strategy day. It all went downhill very quickly after the ASM.

Looking at the SP the market is saying that this year is as good as is going to get for MPG. A market cap of 139m for a company which has posted around 20m NPAT for three years straight does seem very low, however the chart is bloody ugly. Hard to know how many porkies John and Rigby having been hiding in the closet after years of BS. They've been promising cost benefits for years from all their optimisation work, so wonder if that will ever come to the pass.

Hard to believe how a company could be so much of a mess in a bull market (both for construction and the share market).

Wonder what BP thinks of the SP being at 75 cents lol.

[hardt]

div trap or undervalued... div trap or undervalued... div trap or undervalued

It is pretty tempting at this price... downgrades have somewhat been priced in ( i think ) , all they got to do is land a result inline with their own forecasts for once.

[Balance]

div trap or undervalued... div trap or undervalued... div trap or undervalued

It is pretty tempting at this price... downgrades have somewhat been priced in ( i think ) , all they got to do is land a result inline with their own forecasts for once.

Tempting, hardt but MPG has been 'cheap' around $1.40 when it suffered from the first shock profit downgrade in Jan 2017?

Best to see the following before making any move:

1. Strategic review results,

2. Appointment of new CEO,

3. Indication of 2018 results (no update so far should indicate that they are at least on track to meeting the lowered expectations signaled in Nov 2017).

[winner69]

Some were saying cheap when share price was over $2

[BlackPeter]

Funny that July last year the market was regaining some confidence in MPG after a positive investor strategy day. It all went downhill very quickly after the ASM.

Looking at the SP the market is saying that this year is as good as is going to get for MPG. A market cap of 139m for a company which has posted around 20m NPAT for three years straight does seem very low, however the chart is bloody ugly. Hard to know how many porkies John and Rigby having been hiding in the closet after years of BS. They've been promising cost benefits for years from all their optimisation work, so wonder if that will ever come to the pass.

Hard to believe how a company could be so much of a mess in a bull market (both for construction and the share market).

Wonder what BP thinks of the SP being at 75 cents lol.

What do you think I am thinking? Pleased I got out when I did ;) (well documented on this thread).

Looking at re-entering? Maybe - at some stage, I guess there must be a reason they are still on my watch list. Agree however with balance - it feels sensible to wait until we see the new CEO and are able to assess whether he/she is any good and gave him/her time to dig out the remaining skeletons Rigby & Co did hide in their closets.

After this time (and with the benefit of an emerging uptrend) it might be a great time to buy in. I guess MPG is clearly a dog ... and it might be at some stage a very worthwhile to buy ;); On the other hand - it would not be the first sick dog dying in the streets. Better wait until we do see clear signs of recovery.

[Filthy]

I guess MPG is clearly a dog...

That might be little unfair. The business has just been subjected to a hangover of an over-exaggerated IPO, low-building/construction margins, high expectations, some poor management, flat growth and bad market sentiment driven by bad TA. FBU failings have not helped it either.

MPG is nothing more than a divi-paying cyclical much the same way STU & FBU are. It has just had a massive re-rate as it was sold as a 'growth story', when its clearly not.

They still have a reasonable business though imo. No downgrade and probably very good buying at these levels for anyone who wants ~10% gross (the punt is, if this is sustainable or not). Reckon waiting is a good idea, but it 'should' be fine. Bottom of the cycle maybe?

[percy]

With FBU,MPG,MVN,and STU, all now serial under performers, the sector is best avoided.

[crighton100]

Just as a matter of interest I have just returned from a cruise & whilst onboard met a guy who runs a company in wanganui installing windows.We got to talking about mpg & I asked what was their problem & he said one thing & that was Quality control,he said frequently they would supply windows that did not fit or were double glazed & had been made back to front & could not be used,he said when they fix that problem they would do just fine.

[Beagle]

Funny that July last year the market was regaining some confidence in MPG after a positive investor strategy day. It all went downhill very quickly after the ASM.

Looking at the SP the market is saying that this year is as good as is going to get for MPG. A market cap of 139m for a company which has posted around 20m NPAT for three years straight does seem very low, however the chart is bloody ugly. Hard to know how many porkies John and Rigby having been hiding in the closet after years of BS. They've been promising cost benefits for years from all their optimisation work, so wonder if that will ever come to the pass.

Hard to believe how a company could be so much of a mess in a bull market (both for construction and the share market).

Wonder what BP thinks of the SP being at 75 cents lol.

It must be a buy now surely lol.
Ignore the long term downtrend at your peril folks.
Prudent investors with any interest in this sector, (why would you really want to bother I don't know) will wait for a confirmed bottom and buy once it goes back up through its 100 day MA, assuming that ever happens.

[carrom74]

Looks like 50cents in a week.

[BlackPeter]

Looks like 50cents in a week.

Well, its not that bad. Quite consistently dropping with 2.5 to 3 cents per week - give it another couple of months ;);

[Beagle]

This and the other listing of around the same timeframe TGH have been a really sobering experience for investors. The chart on both looks really terrible and investors appear to be on a hiding to nothing. Good companies make results, poor companies make excuses. A real coin toss which is the uglier sister of those two but I'm not tempted by either at their current levels.

[RupertBear]

It must be a buy now surely lol.
Ignore the long term downtrend at your peril folks.
Prudent investors with any interest in this sector, (why would you really want to bother I don't know) will wait for a confirmed bottom and buy once it goes back up through its 100 day MA, assuming that ever happens.

Should have followed your lead and got out at around $1. Still hold a very small parcel that I am tempted to sell at a loss and turn into a milk shake :cool:

[couta1]

Should have followed your lead and got out at around $1. Still hold a very small parcel that I am tempted to sell at a loss and turn into a milk shake :cool: Just do it.:)

[Beagle]

Just do it.:)

Is that a variation of "let's do this" lol.... Bit worried about you copying Jascinda's sayings :)

[couta1]

Is that a variation of "let's do this" lol.... Bit worried about you copying Jascinda's sayings :) Nah, that's the Nike logo from 1988, Jacinda was still at primary school back then.

[RupertBear]

Ok LETS DO THIS! :D

[RupertBear]

I have that Nike sticker on my kayak Couta! JUST DO IT! Feel the fear and do it anyway! :eek2:

[Balance]

Is that a variation of "let's do this" lol.... Bit worried about you copying Jascinda's sayings :)

Yup - cos as we all know now, sweet Cindy Astern then refers it to a select committee before doing anything!

[couta1]

I have that Nike sticker on my kayak Couta! JUST DO IT! Feel the fear and do it anyway! :eek2: That's a double confirmation to sell this mongrel ASAP.

[Beagle]

Ok LETS DO THIS! :D

I would, they'll probably still be applying flea powder by the truckload to this mutt for quite some time yet I reckon.

[nomis]

Should have followed your lead and got out at around $1. Still hold a very small parcel that I am tempted to sell at a loss and turn into a milk shake :cool:


Feeling along the same lines. in at $1.40 originally doubled down and keen for a milk shake myself

[Leftfield]

Feeling along the same lines. in at $1.40 originally doubled down and keen for a milk shake myself

You are learning a valuable (but hard) lesson about the risks of buying and holding a down-trending stocks Nomis.

IMO it is best to quit your losses early and invest only in clearly up-trending stocks. Buy in small increments and only buy more (eg, doubling up) if it retains it's uptrend and proves itself as a good investment.

IMO - Doubling down is an extremely risky play and ties your valuable money up in a non-performer while other shares climb.

[nomis]

You are learning a valuable (but hard) lesson about the risks of buying and holding a down-trending stocks Nomis.

IMO it is best to quit your losses early and invest only in clearly up-trending stocks. Buy in small increments and only buy more (eg, doubling up) if it retains it's uptrend and proves itself as a good investment.

IMO - Doubling down is an extremely risky play and ties your valuable money up in a non-performer while other shares climb.

totally agree. But agreeable later than i should have been

[t.rexjr]

Metro Glass now expects Normalised NPAT for FY2018 to be at or slightly below the bottom of the previously provided guidance range of $18.5 - $20.0 million. This is principally a result of weaker than expected Australian performance as it completed a complex and protracted capital program.

Oh dear...

[winner69]

I like this bit, deserves every penny for getting screwed -

Outgoing CEO, Nigel Rigby, will receive his contractual entitlements of 1 year’s salary and also consideration for extending his restraint of trade to two years. No portion of the annual STI or LTI schemes will be paid. A one off incentive that was proportionate to performance criteria for the current financial year (in particular, delivery of the capital installation program and manufacturing improvement plan) will be awarded.

[winner69]

Hey reading of the parts about the strategic review is that their ‘strategy is all OK’ and doesn’t need changing and the operations aren’t really in a mess but we need to spend some money (heaps) on upskilling our people.

What the punters (ie the market per se) don’t get is that investment in plant and skills is needed to just stay in the game ..it’s not the magic bullet to provide growth.

Metro remains in a fickle market .....that’s the game they are in ....but even $18m profit isn’t too bad. Metro’s ebit margins are more than reasonable for this type of business.

They’ll be OK

[winner69]

Bit of a worry when a spike in electricity prices is treated as a non-recurring cost.

Jeez they run big furnaces .....hope there are no more spikes.

[percy]

No surprises there.!
The sorry saga continues.

[Beagle]

Mr Griffiths said, "the strategic review announced in October 2017 is well
progressed. After very strong sales growth over a number of years, we expect
that activity in our core New Zealand market will remain flat and may
eventually soften. The South East Australian market continues to show strong
demand. Accordingly, this review has challenged the historic focus on revenue
growth, protection of market share, and reviewed the Group's ability to
generate acceptable returns over time from its investments.

Now hang on a minute there. Ever since listing this company has told us its a growth company and their whole focus has been about growing their capabilities to meet that ongoing sustainable growth. Further, a huge amount of the goodwill valuation of this float was predicated upon assumptions of ongoing growth.

That they have had to have outside consultants give them a reality check that this is a cyclical industry (apart from this telling us the bleeding obvious) sheds light on the "integrity and vision" of the directors and management. This has been plainly obvious to most experienced investors for some time.

Hoping they won't get more electricity spikes in costs when the market is clearly headed into a tighter supply demand situation with electric car demand is frankly quite ludicrous and gives another important clue in terms of shedding light on the degree of foresight management have.

The goodwill the balance sheet is built upon was predicated upon assumptions around ongoing strong growth in demand, and this basis is clearly now a falsehood so this fundamentally undermines their balance sheet going forward.

This will continue to be a woeful underperformer going forward in my opinion. They're paying some bonus to the former CEO just for working through a capital investment program...surely part of his core responsibility ? What was he paid his very high base salary for then ? Surely this sets some new low in "performance" based incentives ?

Investors should keep in mind the net tangible assets of this company is -2.2 cps, i.e. there is a vast amount of goodwill in the balance sheet that is based on fundamentally false assumptions of ongoing strong demand growth. Another classic case of a well timed float, investors sold old and tough mutton dressed up as fresh lamb.

[winner69]

Now hang on a minute there. Ever since listing this company has told us its a growth company and their whole focus has been about growing their capabilities to meet that ongoing sustainable growth. Further, a huge amount of the goodwill valuation of this float was predicated upon assumptions of ongoing growth.

That they have had to have outside consultants give them a reality check that this is a cyclical industry (apart from this telling us the bleeding obvious) sheds light on the "integrity and vision" of the directors and management. This has been plainly obvious to most experienced investors for some time.

Hoping they won't get more electricity spikes in costs when the market is clearly headed into a tighter supply demand situation with electric car demand is frankly quite ludicrous and gives another important clue in terms of shedding light on the degree of foresight management have.

The goodwill the balance sheet is built upon was predicated upon assumptions around ongoing strong growth in demand, and this basis is clearly now a falsehood so this fundamentally undermines their balance sheet going forward.

This will continue to be a woeful underperformer going forward in my opinion. They're paying some bonus to the former CEO just for working through a capital investment program...surely part of his core responsibility ? What was he paid his very high base salary for then ? Surely this sets some new low in "performance" based incentives ?

Investors should keep in mind the net tangible assets of this company is -2.2 cps, i.e. there is a vast amount of goodwill in the balance sheet that is based on fundamentally false assumptions of ongoing strong demand growth. Another classic case of a well timed float, investors sold old and tough mutton dressed up as fresh lamb.

That strategic review was always a window dressing initiative ....that was patently clear. I said so at the time. the grumpy market demanded something be done so they did something.

If there was to a review of anything it should be around ulterior motives of the IPO promoters and still big shareholders. They are the ones who have duped the punters.

Amazes me it’s taken so long for the market to realise that Metro is what it is ...a solid but not sexy company that’ll make around $20m in good years and probably a bit less when the market is not so robust.

As such it will be price accordingly ...maybe more than where it currently sits.

how many years has MVN been a growth company? Some still think so

[t.rexjr]

They're paying some bonus to the former CEO just for working through a capital investment program...surely part of his core responsibility ? What was he paid his very high base salary for then ? Surely this sets some new low in "performance" based incentives ?

I believe none of this bonus is to be paid

That said, I agree with your rant 100%

[JeremyALD]

Woeful. Excuses again around inefficiencies. When will they ever be efficient?

[Beagle]

What do MPG and TGH have in common ? Promotors really talked up the growth prospects when in fact they knew the prospects were extremely limited.
As Winner quite rightly pout it, investors were duped, its as simple as that and both companies have done just enough so as the way they "informed" the market about forward prospects got the very best possible IPO price but they probably haven't done anything easily actionable, which was obviously their goal all along.

Unfortunately we now have the Feltex precedent that's been tested through the courts at great length and considerable cost which has entrenched in our markets and courts the liberal way in which the courts will interpret leeway when it comes to IPO forecast and talk related thereto. Caveat Emptor when it comes to all new floats especially by private equity interests.

[trader_jackson]

What do MPG and TGH have in common ? Promotors really talked up the growth prospects when in fact they knew the prospects were extremely limited.
As Winner quite rightly pout it, investors were duped, its as simple as that and both companies have done just enough so as the way they "informed" the market about forward prospects got the very best possible IPO price but they probably haven't done anything easily actionable, which was obviously their goal all along.

Unfortunately we now have the Feltex precedent that's been tested through the courts at great length and considerable cost which has entrenched in our markets and courts the liberal way in which the courts will interpret leeway when it comes to IPO forecast and talk related thereto. Caveat Emptor when it comes to all new floats especially by private equity interests.

Wasn't Summerset a private equity float?
Absolutely don't disagree with you regarding MPG and TGH businesses themselves of course

[percy]

Wasn't Summerset a private equity float?
Absolutely don't disagree with you regarding MPG and TGH businesses themselves of course

Don't forget Scales.

[Beagle]

Wasn't Summerset a private equity float?
Absolutely don't disagree with you regarding MPG and TGH businesses themselves of course

There always SUM exceptions to the rule but no question investors need to weigh-up (you see what I did there referencing scales) all IPO prospects very very carefully fully cognisant of the fact that varying amounts of bright red lipstick will be used by promotors of ALL IPO's. Even mutts with fleas can be made to look half reasonable with enough lipstick to sink the Titanic.

[Balance]

Wasn't Summerset a private equity float?
Absolutely don't disagree with you regarding MPG and TGH businesses themselves of course

Always have to be doubly careful of late bull cycle IPOs.

[Beagle]

Of the total assets shown in the balance sheet as at 31 March 2017 $293.8M a whopping $163.7m was goodwill, (just $130m wasn't goodwill) including $32.4m goodwill for the Australian company acquisition which is currently under-performing. Further as noted earlier today much of the N.Z. goodwill was based upon a formula of compounding future solid growth, the basis of which has now been undermined by expert outside consultants.

One wonders how much this goodwill is really worth now ?

In note 4.2 the company says they test the veracity of their goodwill assumption every year. My guess is this won't be overtly stress tested this year seeing as the company has $137.3m in liabilities. No wonder they are keen to reduce bank debt...

Balance - A classic case of the longer / bigger the bull the longer / bigger the porkies ?

[winner69]

Of the total assets shown in the balance sheet as at 31 March 2017 $293.8M a whopping $163.7m was goodwill, (just $130m wasn't goodwill) including $32.4m goodwill for the Australian company acquisition which is currently under-performing. Further as noted earlier today much of the N.Z. goodwill was based upon a formula of compounding future solid growth, the basis of which has now been undermined by expert outside consultants.

One wonders how much this goodwill is really worth now ?

In note 4.2 the company says they test the veracity of their goodwill assumption every year. My guess is this won't be overtly stress tested this year seeing as the company has $137.3m in liabilities. No wonder they are keen to reduce bank debt...

Balance - A classic case of the longer / bigger the bull the longer / bigger the porkies ?

Mentioning debt reduction today a bit odd ......but signals impairment on the way and the need to remain within convenants. Clear as.

The guys who sold Metro for $366m in 2007 were indeed fortunate and good on them.

Since then they gone broke and restructured and all sorts of things and in spite of that is operationally still a very sound and solid company. But one that is not really suited to being listed if greased up to be a growth company.

[winner69]

Woeful. Excuses again around inefficiencies. When will they ever be efficient?

Good job for you there Jeremy ....you’d make them efficient eh

[Beagle]

Mentioning debt reduction today a bit odd ......but signals impairment on the way and the need to remain within convenants. Clear as.

The guys who sold Metro for $366m in 2007 were indeed fortunate and good on them.

Since then they gone broke and restructured and all sorts of things and in spite of that is operationally still a very sound and solid company. But one that is not really suited to being listed if greased up to be a growth company.

Agreed. One can't help but wonder why they bothered investing in Australia when its so clear management already has had its work well and truly cut out for them trying to get their existing Kiwi operations running smoothly and efficiently. I suspect we might see the day where they exit that investment. Mentioning demand might go soft in the medium term is softening shareholders up for the possibility that all their recent capital improvements might actually amount to a big fat "nothing" from a profit perspective.

[Beagle]

I believe none of this bonus is to be paid

That said, I agree with your rant 100%


A one off incentive that was proportionate to performance criteria for the current
financial year (in particular, delivery of the capital installation program
and manufacturing improvement plan) will be awarded.


Good to get things off your chest. I maintain this is a shareholder rort, being paid a material incentive for nothing more than implementing a capex plan, the benefits thereof are yet to be felt in any way. Bit like Warehouse management being paid a huge bonus for lower financial performance.
Early days but I'll believe all these so called manufacturing efficiencies from their capex expenditure when I see them.

[winner69]

Agreed. One can't help but wonder why they bothered investing in Australia when its so clear management already has had its work well and truly cut out for them trying to get their existing Kiwi operations running smoothly and efficiently. I suspect we might see the day where they exit that investment. Mentioning demand might go soft in the medium term is softening shareholders up for the possibility that all their recent capital improvements might actually amount to a big fat "nothing" from a profit perspective.

Simple — the market (greedy shareholders) demanded growth

Australia acquisition is/was eps accretive in a sense

[winner69]

Good to get things off your chest. I maintain this is a shareholder rort, being paid a material incentive for nothing more than implementing a capex plan, the benefits thereof are yet to be felt in any way. Bit like Warehouse management being paid a huge bonus for lower financial performance.
Early days but I'll believe all these so called manufacturing efficiencies from their capex expenditure when I see them.

Wonder what he got for ‘extending his restraint of trade to two years’

Thought you would be more appalled at the years salary he’s getting ( even though part of his contract)

[carrom74]

Not much movement with the SP despite the downgrade... may be the market expected it to be worse.No word on the dividends though on the update.I am guessing 4c would be retained.

[Beagle]

Shareholders weren't the greedy ones in my opinion. The promoters pumped this up as a growth story from the outset and set the expectations of the market artificially too high for obvious commercial reason so they could maximise the float price...just like other floats in recent years like TGH and EVO. These three all have a number of things in common. Plenty of talk of growth that hasn't really eventuated and balance sheets grossly inflated with goodwill presently stated at very dubious level's.
I think all three will continue to disappoint shareholders in the foreseeable future.

[Pavan Sharma]

Not sure how they are struggling this bad in the middle of a construction boom, had a mate call them up for a quote, they said they'll send someone in 2 months, they appear to be flat out so not sure whats the story. Maybe they bit off more than they can chew and cant get enough staff

[crighton100]

As I said a few weeks ago,I spoke to an installer [has his own business] & he said their problem was quality control [they have heaps of business,but stuff ups are costing them big time].So it probably is a staff problem ,with inexperienced people employed,perhaps a bit more staff training might improve successful output & the bottom line.I sold out at the $1 price,making a small loss,but have bought back in at .71,so I think they will at least pay dividends that far exceed bank deposits.Hope so anyway..

[jimmybuffett]

As I said a few weeks ago,I spoke to an installer [has his own business] & he said their problem was quality control [they have heaps of business,but stuff ups are costing them big time].So it probably is a staff problem ,with inexperienced people employed,perhaps a bit more staff training might improve successful output & the bottom line.I sold out at the $1 price,making a small loss,but have bought back in at .71,so I think they will at least pay dividends that far exceed bank deposits.Hope so anyway..
Metro chairman Peter Griffiths pretty much confirmed the issues are around trying to manage quality while being so busy. Paraphrasing from NBR on 5th April, he says the supply chain is chocka, any mistakes made impact schedule, and they are operating at full capacity the whole time.

[t.rexjr]

Metro chairman Peter Griffiths pretty much confirmed the issues are around trying to manage quality while being so busy. Paraphrasing from NBR on 5th April, he says the supply chain is chocka, any mistakes made impact schedule, and they are operating at full capacity the whole time.

They'd have to be having many major balls-ups to significantly effect their overall performance. I've done a few factory tours and they are slick operations. Not buying it...

[BlackPeter]

They'd have to be having many major balls-ups to significantly effect their overall performance. I've done a few factory tours and they are slick operations. Not buying it...

Agreed - did last year a tour at their Christchurch facilities - and while they (thankfully) did have some work, it clearly didn't felt like maximum capacity.

No indications of capacity related bottle necks, breakage or similar either. Obviously - hard to assess from a factory tour whether they cut the windows to the required sizes or need to redo every second (or whatever) job ... but than, how hard can it be? Measuring up windows is not rocket science - and the cutting was all automated ...

[Balance]

Agreed - did last year a tour at their Christchurch facilities - and while they (thankfully) did have some work, it clearly didn't felt like maximum capacity.

No indications of capacity related bottle necks, breakage or similar either. Obviously - hard to assess from a factory tour whether they cut the windows to the required sizes or need to redo every second (or whatever) job ... but than, how hard can it be? Measuring up windows is not rocket science - and the cutting was all automated ...

The problem lies with a lot of the fancy doors and windows designed these days by architects.

I have personally seen a whole consignment of windows (rounded at the top) sent back to the factory (don't know who was the glass supplier) beacuse they did not fit.

Maybe that's why Metro Glass stated they are moving away from certain markets?

[winner69]

Agreed - did last year a tour at their Christchurch facilities - and while they (thankfully) did have some work, it clearly didn't felt like maximum capacity.

No indications of capacity related bottle necks, breakage or similar either. Obviously - hard to assess from a factory tour whether they cut the windows to the required sizes or need to redo every second (or whatever) job ... but than, how hard can it be? Measuring up windows is not rocket science - and the cutting was all automated ...

Measuring up experience - not Metro

We had a glass splash back installed in our kitchen. Nearly 3 metres long and not a regular shape and had 4 sets of plugs (ie holes in the glass) to allow for. Guy used his laser thingie from all angles to measure up. Huge piece of toughened glass arrived and it fitted like a glove. I was impressed.

Outfit did say the glass did come from Metro before he did the printing of the image on it.

[steveb]

hey winner sounds a bit posh,you been making to much money on the markets? But not on Metro me thinks!

But realistically this is where Metro makes good money,on their specialist glass A lot of the bulk standard glass they are competing with are the cheap chinese product.And the margins are just not there

[t.rexjr]

The problem lies with a lot of the fancy doors and windows designed these days by architects.

I have personally seen a whole consignment of windows (rounded at the top) sent back to the factory (don't know who was the glass supplier) beacuse they did not fit.

Maybe that's why Metro Glass stated they are moving away from certain markets?

If that was a residential consignment then it's more than likely a joinery manufactuer error and not on Metro.

I doubt errors in residential supply would have too much influence. Most of it is pretty straight forward. I'd suspect it'd more likely be commercial supply and pricing related. Commercial has more international influences.

[trader_jackson]

Forsyth upgrading this to outperform now - 95c 12 month target so must be a good buy at these prices then if they say so
Just like CBL and EVO with their outperform ratings - 95c is still a reasonable chunk below where they think OCA will be in 12 months

[winner69]

Forsyth upgrading this to outperform now - 95c 12 month target so must be a good buy at these prices then if they say so
Just like CBL and EVO with their outperform ratings - 95c is still a reasonable chunk below where they think OCA will be in 12 months

That’s good.

Hope they get the momentum going .....Metro should be $1.20 by Xmas

[Ghost Monkey]

ACC likes it

[Balance]

ACC likes it


http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MPG/316734/277679.pdf

Devon does not.

Guess it is hard to like the stock after they topped up in Dec 2017 at $1.00 and higher, thinking MPG was cheap and then, sold down at 80c and below?

[Ghost Monkey]

Too impatient. Should have held on till Xmas. $1.20 I hear.

[Balance]

84c - 20% up for those brave enough to buy off Devon at 70c.

Missing out on ATM in a big way is bad enough but Devon seems to be compounding their woes by building up their stake in MPG at higher prices and then, selling MPG at the lowest of prices?


Becoming quite the contrarian fund manager to follow! They buy, you sell and when they sell, you buy!

Used to be Fisher Funds.

[winner69]

84c - 20% up for those brave enough to buy off Devon at 70c.

Missing out on ATM in a big way is bad enough but Devon seems to be compounding their woes by building up their stake in MPG at higher prices and then, selling MPG at the lowest of prices?


Becoming quite the contrarian fund manager to follow! They buy, you sell and when they sell, you buy!

Used to be Fisher Funds.

Good eh mate.

Surely it’s not Forbar whose put the rocket under the share price.

[Kay]

Or the 10% yield on the way!

[carrom74]

Just about 2.5 cents to touch the 100MA and may be heading towards a golden cross... Jeez what an unbelievable turnaround a "buy" recommendation can make... I have to admit..was doubling down and catching some "sharp" falling knives...

[JoeGrogan]

Just about 2.5 cents to touch the 100MA and may be heading towards a golden cross... Jeez what an unbelievable turnaround a "buy" recommendation can make... I have to admit..was doubling down and catching some "sharp" falling knives...

yeah quite a nice bounce, glad i bought a few after they updated the market. More than makes up for the loss i took from being stopped out in December.

Interested to see what the outlook in the FY report is, and if the CEO hunt has progressed.

[hogie]

I ended up chickening out on this one and invested my divvy proceeds in some more OCA ... hope it was a good choice :)

[winner69]

I ended up chickening out on this one and invested my divvy proceeds in some more OCA ... hope it was a good choice :)

Six months they were both $1.02

I reckon MPG will win this race

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?11121-OCA-or-MPG/page2&highlight=Oca

[winner69]

FNZC downgrade MPG from an Outperfom to Neutral

Wow

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/0324f4be/metroglass-cut-to-neutral-at-fnzc-as-nz-cycle-on-moderating-building-cycle.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=MetroGlass%20cut%20to%20neutral%20at% 20FNZC%20as%20NZ%20cycle%20on%20moderating%20build ing%20cycle&utm_content=MetroGlass%20cut%20to%20neutral%20at%2 0FNZC%20as%20NZ%20cycle%20on%20moderating%20buildi ng%20cycle+CID_d447dfc12cb71cee7e9db502061675a5&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle0324f4bemetrog lass-cut-to-neutral-at-fnzc-as-nz-cycle-on-moderating-building-cyclehtml

[percy]

Wow indeed.
Not nice for shareholders.

[Beagle]

They're just as underwhelmed as most of us on here...probably read some of our comments on this thread lol
Yes another listing from recent years that promised growth and delivered nothing, add to the others that made lots of promises of growth like Evolve and Tegal.
Got a really small haircut from this mutt but thankfully managed to avoid the other two who's "dressing old mutton up as spring lamb" was a little more obvious.

[gbogo]

FNZC valuation range is now 44c - $1.17

[RupertBear]

FNZC valuation range is now 44c - $1.17

I'd be pretty happy to sell mine for $1.17! Would still be in the red but not by as much. Wasnt as nimble as the Beagle hound at escaping this one ;)

[kiora]

It could be another chicken share

[Ggcc]

I'd be pretty happy to sell mine for $1.17! Would still be in the red but not by as much. Wasnt as nimble as the Beagle hound at escaping this one ;)
It seems that you know how to pick the shares that don't perform too well. I used to have that ability but have seemed to have lost that ability for now

[RupertBear]

It seems that you know how to pick the shares that don't perform too well. I used to have that ability but have seemed to have lost that ability for now

Yep I seem to have that ability but I am trying hard to loose it! Getting better at picking winners and also getting rid of the duds I have before they break me! :)

[JoeGrogan]

FNZC downgrade MPG from an Outperfom to Neutral

Wow

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/0324f4be/metroglass-cut-to-neutral-at-fnzc-as-nz-cycle-on-moderating-building-cycle.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=MetroGlass%20cut%20to%20neutral%20at% 20FNZC%20as%20NZ%20cycle%20on%20moderating%20build ing%20cycle&utm_content=MetroGlass%20cut%20to%20neutral%20at%2 0FNZC%20as%20NZ%20cycle%20on%20moderating%20buildi ng%20cycle+CID_d447dfc12cb71cee7e9db502061675a5&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle0324f4bemetrog lass-cut-to-neutral-at-fnzc-as-nz-cycle-on-moderating-building-cyclehtml

Probably means its a good time to buy lol, FNZC have been pretty trash with their calls recently.

[winner69]

Yep I seem to have that ability but I am trying hard to loose it! Getting better at picking winners and also getting rid of the duds I have before they break me! :)

Held their $1.20 odd valuation for a while ....probably grew impatient and didn't want to look too stupid

[minimoke]

FNZC downgrade MPG from an Outperfom to Neutral

Wow

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/0324f4be/metroglass-cut-to-neutral-at-fnzc-as-nz-cycle-on-moderating-building-cycle.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=MetroGlass%20cut%20to%20neutral%20at% 20FNZC%20as%20NZ%20cycle%20on%20moderating%20build ing%20cycle&utm_content=MetroGlass%20cut%20to%20neutral%20at%2 0FNZC%20as%20NZ%20cycle%20on%20moderating%20buildi ng%20cycle+CID_d447dfc12cb71cee7e9db502061675a5&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle0324f4bemetrog lass-cut-to-neutral-at-fnzc-as-nz-cycle-on-moderating-building-cyclehtml
When did it "outperform"?

[Sideshow Bob]

When did it "outperform"?

9th of September 2016 at 1.23pm, when it hit $2.23.

Been a downhill ski slope since then.

[Beagle]

9th of September 2016 at 1.23pm, when it hit $2.23.

Been a downhill ski slope since then.

That was about when you sold out wasn't it Winner ? Well done to you !

[Balance]

Probably means its a good time to buy lol, FNZC have been pretty trash with their calls recently.

Couldn't agree with you more - seriously.

FMZC had MPG as OUTPERFORM - March 2017 when sp was $1.45. The sp sank faster than their revised downward revisions/valuations in the last year so they finally bit the bullet and did a drastic change to their recommendation and valuation to be ahead of the curve.

TIME TO BUY!

[BlackPeter]

Couldn't agree with you more - seriously.

FMZC had MPG as OUTPERFORM - March 2017 when sp was $1.45. The sp sank faster than their revised downward revisions/valuations in the last year so they finally bit the bullet and did a drastic change to their recommendation and valuation to be ahead of the curve.

TIME TO BUY!

Well, maybe ... but I don't think we can rely on FNZC getting it always wrong ;);

I guess MPG dropped during peak building activities and if you look at the attempts of our government to stifle the building market - and if you look at Fletcher's building woes ... maybe it might pay to wait a bit longer before taking the dip ...

Aren't they still looking for a new CEO? At least it might pay to wait for him/ her to come on board and giving them time to uncover the remaining skeletons ...

BTW - the share is in an unbroken downtrend (not even close to the EMA200) and has heaps of "goodwill" on their books which might well be written off at some stage. Why take the risk?

[Beagle]

Yeap, I'm with BP. New CEO, if they can find one, (its been around six months already) will be sure to want to take a new broom to any dead wood and old skeletons lying around so expect significant restructuring and redundancies as well as other one-off clean-up costs.

[carrom74]

With a dividend yield of 8%(if they pay 4 cents this time)...I am still holding... and hoping FNZC is proved wrong(again!)

[Balance]

With a dividend yield of 8%(if they pay 4 cents this time)...I am still holding... and hoping FNZC is proved wrong(again!)

Well, I have decided to help (a little bit) the FNZC clients who are selling out at 82c.

Bought some - FNZC's recommendation makes absolutely zero sense to me (Outperform at $1.45 and neutral at 82c?) - they should have been getting their clients out when the stock was trading at $1.45!

Where was FNZC when the sp went down to 70c? Must have been a raging buy since they had an outperform and valuation of $1.02 at that time.

Smells to me of a fee churning exercise.

I have never taken that much notice of analysts' recommendations although I have found their analysis/research useful for information and to help with my own assessments.

There is an analyst in one of the major broking firms who was well known for his late calls - you sell when he recommended buy, and you buy when he recommended sell! Hard to believe but it is true - he is still an analyst. :D

[Beagle]

Agree Balance that a lot of the analyst calls are late, (not the least of which on AIR). People probably better off reading what's on here. I won't be following you on this dog, my pretty reliable nose tells me there's a lot more trouble ahead. I've made the call a heck of a long time before FCNZ has that this is a flea infested mutt and unlike them I don't need to change my opinion to generate more brokerage.

Vast amounts of goodwill at massively and outrageous overstated value on this pup's balance sheet, a rudderless and directionless ship adrift on the high seas with no idea where they are or where they're going, (any company that has to hire outside consultants to tell them how to run it) is a HUGE red flag in my investment rulebook.

Getting back to the vast goodwill figure. This was calculated upon a basis that there would be steady predictable growth in sales each year. They had to hire outside consultants to tell them their growth expectations were unrealistic and this is a cyclical business. Oh for goodness sake...and some people want to invest money with these "experts" go figure ?

[Balance]

Agree Balance that a lot of the analyst calls are late, (not the least of which on AIR). People probably better off reading what's on here. I won't be following you on this dog, my pretty reliable nose tells me there's a lot more trouble ahead. I've made the call a heck of a long time before FCNZ has that this is a flea infested mutt and unlike them I don't need to change my story lol

Vast amounts of goodwill at massively and outrageous overstated value on this pup's balance sheet, a rudderless and directionless ship adrift on the high seas with no idea where they are or where they're going, (any company that ahs to hire outside consultants to tell them how to run it) is a HUGE red flag in my investment rulebook.

Thx, Beagle.

Putting my money to prove a point really.

Not big money.

Bragging rights later :D

[winner69]

Thx, Beagle.

Putting my money to prove a point really.

Not big money.

Bragging rights later :D

Good buying on low 80s eh mate

Somebody has to say it first ......and will be often repeated I think

[carrom74]

Thx, Beagle.

Putting my money to prove a point really.

Not big money.
Bragging rights later :D Who knows? but would be great.Rightly kept insisting a good entry point for Trilogy at 210 and it worked wonders for me. W69 knows too eh?

[BlackPeter]

Good buying on low 80s eh mate

Somebody has to say it first ......and will be often repeated I think

Didn't you say the same thing at $1.30 :confused:?

[janner]

Didn't you say the same thing at $1.30 :confused:?

Please do not take this the wrong way BP..

Post 118. ???

It does show that constant vigilance is required.

[winner69]

Please do not take this the wrong way BP..

Post 118. ???

It does show that constant vigilance is required.

That's a bit mean

[janner]

But true..

Just a reason for DYOR..

[BlackPeter]

Please do not take this the wrong way BP..

Post 118. ???

It does show that constant vigilance is required.

Absolutely - there was a time when I thought MPG might have been undervalued. Difference is - I learned from my mistakes and clearly documented on this thread when and why I changed my views on and my holding of this company.

Do you get every thing right all the time?

[janner]

In short due to posting needs,

No..

[janner]

Best example.. Had 93000 ATM November 2013.. sold at a 20k lose..

Ce la vie ..

However.. No... I bite my tongue :-))

[nomis]

Yep I seem to have that ability but I am trying hard to loose it! Getting better at picking winners and also getting rid of the duds I have before they break me! :)

You wont be the only one on here with that problem! Myself with this dog included.

[BlackPeter]

Oh dear - nice deflection on the MA100 and the downtrend just continues. Not sure I would be brave enough to call at this stage a bottom for this stock, but how do they say - "once bitten, twice shy"? We need some fresh volunteers to push this stock upwards again ;);

Looks like analysts gave up as well - consensus downgraded to 88 cents (down from 95); Well, at least it is still above the current SP;

Only the sky is the limit :);

[Balance]

Hope I can start a phrase here with 'always right to buy at 82c'!

Like TIL at $2.10 ....

[carrom74]

Hope I can start a phrase here with 'always right to buy at 82c'!

Like TIL at $2.10 ....


Who knows? but would be great.Rightly kept insisting a good entry point for Trilogy at 210 and it worked wonders for me. W69 knows too eh?

Balance-I have already mentioned this three days back.Yes you need to start for MPG.

[Balance]

Balance-I have already mentioned this three days back.Yes you need to start for MPG.

85c!

Always right to buy at 82c!

Especially when the recommendation to sell at 82c came from a broker which had a buy at $1.45!

[winner69]

85c!

Always right to buy at 82c!

Especially when the recommendation to sell at 82c came from a broker which had a buy at $1.45!

Yes 82c was a good time to buy mate

[Balance]

Yes 82c was a good time to buy mate

I genuinely feel sorry for the investors who blindly follow the brokers' recommendations. They have never ever been there for the retail investors - corporates first, institutions second and far far behind, retail clients.

Still beggars belief that investors do not see through the fallacy of following a brokerage firm which recommends they buy a stock at $1.45 and then, sell at 82c!

You could see them in action the other day when they fled MPG in droves down to 81c!

Closed at 86c - 6.2% up on the 81c sold by some because of FNZC's recommendation.

[hardt]

I genuinely feel sorry for the investors who blindly follow the brokers' recommendations. They have never ever been there for the retail investors - corporates first, institutions second and far far behind, retail clients.

Still beggars belief that investors do not see through the fallacy of following a brokerage firm which recommends they buy a stock at $1.45 and then, sell at 82c!

You could see them in action the other day when they fled MPG in droves down to 81c!

Closed at 86c - 6.2% up on the 81c sold by some because of FNZC's recommendation.

As time passes theories and assumptions on certain businesses and industries are proven/disproven and opinions follow.
Telling clients to cut losses now as they do not see a solid return happening in 2018-2019... we will find out if they made the right call come 2019.

[Onion]

I genuinely feel sorry for the investors who blindly follow the brokers' recommendations. They have never ever been there for the retail investors - corporates first, institutions second and far far behind, retail clients.

Still beggars belief that investors do not see through the fallacy of following a brokerage firm which recommends they buy a stock at $1.45 and then, sell at 82c!

You could see them in action the other day when they fled MPG in droves down to 81c!

Closed at 86c - 6.2% up on the 81c sold by some because of FNZC's recommendation.

I bailed today at 85c. The ST negativity eventually got to me. With the last dividend in the bank I am $2000 down on my investment but now can stop worrying. Optimistically I can say I made a (hypothetical) profit from the recent lows in the 70c range (whereas I actually paid $1).

[RupertBear]

I bailed today at 85c. The ST negativity eventually got to me. With the last dividend in the bank I am $2000 down on my investment but now can stop worrying. Optimistically I can say I made a (hypothetical) profit from the recent lows in the 70c range (whereas I actually paid $1).

Yep I hear you. I am down a little less than you and tempted to bail as well. I keep thinking if I sell and park the money somewhere else I will have more chance of recouping my losses than leaving it where it is. But knowing my luck as soon as I sell the sp will jump up ;)

[Leftfield]

Closed at 86c - 6.2% up on the 81c sold by some because of FNZC's recommendation.

Good luck! I don't share the faith on this one. Management/Directors have much to prove IMO.

I would be waiting for a hint of a 'golden cross' on the TA. ('Picking Bottoms' is over-rated IMO.)

Hawkins in receivership news (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/103847025/exhawkins-business-in-receivership-owing-30m)

[dreamcatcher]

Took a $10000 loss on this one and probably NEVER invest in MPG again

[Baa_Baa]

Took a $10000 loss on this one and probably NEVER invest in MPG again

The market has an extremely long memory, your loss will not be forgotten nor will the losses of many other 'dreamcatchers'. MPG is unfortunately tarred inexorably from its shonky IPO and may never recover from it, or even it does recover some day it will be broadcast here sufficiently early enough for one to action it.

Take it on the chin, a lesson learnt. Listen to the advice of those who are truely experienced (I don't include myself in that definition) and graciously offer their wise counsel here and stick to proven earners with solid fundamentals and great growth prospects with SP's that aren't being beaten to a pulp by negative sentiment.

There are only a handful of companies on NZX that are left in this topped out market that fit the definition and the guru's posting here are all over them like a rash. MPG isn't one of them.

Everything else is very speculative, especially NZX IPO's that are not government-backed.

[janner]

Yep I hear you. I am down a little less than you and tempted to bail as well. I keep thinking if I sell and park the money somewhere else I will have more chance of recouping my losses than leaving it where it is. But knowing my luck as soon as I sell the sp will jump up ;)

Rupert ..Rupert.. Rupert... You have been on here long enough to know by now that there are some basics that we all try to adhere to..

LUCK is not one of them.. Some have Balls of steel.. They come from experience.. We all win some and lose some.. Follow the rules and learn..

Try and find KW's post's .. Contact JT I know he has posted it on here before.

Good hunting.. !!!

You are in the right place at the right time... USE IT ..

[janner]

The market has an extremely long memory, your loss will not be forgotten nor will the losses of many other 'dreamcatchers'. MPG is unfortunately tarred inexorably from its shonky IPO and may never recover from it, or even it does recover some day it will be broadcast here sufficiently early enough for one to action it.

Take it on the chin, a lesson learnt. Listen to the advice of those who are truely experienced (I don't include myself in that definition) and graciously offer their wise counsel here and stick to proven earners with solid fundamentals and great growth prospects with SP's that aren't being beaten to a pulp by negative sentiment.

There are only a handful of companies on NZX that are left in this topped out market that fit the definition and the guru's posting here are all over them like a rash. MPG isn't one of them.

Everything else is very speculative, especially NZX IPO's that are not government-backed.

Good post.. I hope Rupert is taking note..

[RupertBear]

Good post.. I hope Rupert is taking note..

Yes janner I am here, listening and learning. Thanks for your comments and yes good post thanks Baa Baa :)

[emveha]

The market has an extremely long memory, your loss will not be forgotten nor will the losses of many other 'dreamcatchers'. MPG is unfortunately tarred inexorably from its shonky IPO and may never recover from it, or even it does recover some day it will be broadcast here sufficiently early enough for one to action it.

Negative sentiment might have been compounded by mental proximity with other spectacular fall in the building sector (FBU)...

[Balance]

The market has an extremely long memory, your loss will not be forgotten nor will the losses of many other 'dreamcatchers'. MPG is unfortunately tarred inexorably from its shonky IPO and may never recover from it, or even it does recover some day it will be broadcast here sufficiently early enough for one to action it.


Actually the market has a very short memory - so short that shysters are able to plunder at will every so many years or so.

Examples - Feltex by Forsyth Barr ($280m gone) and what did we have in recent years? CBL - nice big one this time round ($1 billion) and before that, Credit Sails ($90m), South Canterbury Finance etc etc.

Then there's the backdoor listings - Snakk, Plxxure, Seadragon etc etc when Plus SMS should have etched into stone that investors must steer clear of backdoor jobs.

Go to the Snakk thread and you can see how short the market memory is. Some of us who warned against Snakk were subject to odium and abuse.

[Beagle]

NBR reported yesterday that there is now distrust firmly embedded in investors psyche towards private equity floats.
Its been quite SUM time since investors did really well out of a private equity float. The Dick Smith fiasco as you probably know has been described as the greatest private equity heist of all time but we have some notable ones here as you've mentioned above.

Even after really dismal recent listings like TGH, MPG and EVO, (which all promised growth and delivered anything but that) I suspect there's another bunch of gullible investors out there ready to be influenced by pretty pictures and promises of growth.

PE forecasts should be treated with deep skepticism especially as they're the ones that stand to make material gain from painting a really rosy picture of future prospects. You would think that investors would have worked that out by now ?

This MPG an especially shameful fiasco. Massive goodwill on the books predicated upon ongoing sustained growth and they needed outside consultants to tell them what "blind Freddy" already knew, that this is a cyclical industry :ohmy:

This company is a rudderless ship on a journey to nowhere. The Directors should be deeply ashamed of themselves making such promises of growth when its clear it was all smoke and mirrors.

[Balance]

Even after really dismal recent listings like TGH, MPG and EVO, (which all promised growth and delivered anything but that) I suspect there's another bunch of gullible investors out there ready to be influenced by pretty pictures and promises of growth.

PE forecasts should be treated with deep skepticism especially as they're the ones that stand to make material gain from painting a really rosy picture of future prospects. You would think that investors would have worked that out by now ?



For every dismal PE IPO, there is actually one which has delivered - remember Freightways, Z Energy, Trade Me, NZ King Salmon, Gentrack, Summerset to name but a few.

All a question of being careful to choose and participate in the right ones.

[Beagle]

For every dismal PE IPO, there is actually one which has delivered - remember Freightways, Z Energy, Trade Me, NZ King Salmon, Gentrack, Summerset to name but a few.

All a question of being careful to choose and participate in the right ones.

Perhaps its just my perception but lately it seems the B.S. promises of growth has been layered on a bit thicker...

[Balance]

Perhaps its just my perception but lately it seems the B.S. promises of growth has been layered on a bit thicker...

Late cycle IPOs - pays to be very very wary of them.

[bullfrog]

Perhaps its just my perception but lately it seems the B.S. promises of growth has been layered on a bit thicker...
Back in the day you could trust em, Pushpay and eroad, 2014 vintages, PVL and CLI... oh dear

[winner69]

No surprises in full year, just as they said ....well done

Strategic review — current strategy still relevant so strategy unchanged. Just need to execute better

Outlook — EBIT probably a bit more in F19 but not making any outrageous promises. Market won’t grow and capacity still a problem

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MPG/318385/279725.pdf

[Sideshow Bob]

Results are out:

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/318385

Group revenue of $268.3 million (+10%) including a full 12 months of trading from AGG. EBIT of $28.0 million (‐15%) and NPAT of $16.3 million (‐16%) impacted by significant items  Strong operating cash flow of $33.6 million (+92%) and net debt flat at $94.3m  Soft NZ construction activity resulted in flat NZ sales; RetroFit revenue grew +25%  Australian revenue growth supported by Victorian double glazing sales, however capital programme disruptions impacted financial results in the final quarter of FY18  Completed a $20.6m capital programme involving all plants, plus greenfield Tasmanian plant  Declared a fully‐imputed final dividend of 3.8 cps, bringing total FY18 dividends to 7.4 cps  Conducted a strategic review of the business; changes at board and senior management level

[winner69]

Should give market some confidence

Yes — good buying in low 80s eh balance

[Sideshow Bob]

$2.9m in CEO departure and recruitment costs in FT18. Hopefully they aren't recurring!

[BlackPeter]

Well done?

If you take the revenue of the Australian appendix (first full year) out of the picture, than revenue (268m) did hardly change compared to last year (NZ slightly down, AU slightly up, but profitability down) - and certainly ended somewhat below anyway subdued analyst predictions (272m).

EPS (8.8 cents) did as well under perform compared to last year (10.5 cents) and compared to analyst expectations (9.4 cents).

NTA is basically naught (but this is not new - just what too much goodwill on the balance sheet really means).

If you call this "well done" How would a bad result look like?

Outlook for next year sounds like shareholders will be lucky if its not worse than this year.


Chair Peter Griffiths said: “Future market conditions are always difficult to predict, but we expect activity in
New Zealand to remain close to the current levels for the coming 12 months, with further Canterbury declines
being offset by growth in other regions.

Not quite convinced they reached already the bottom ... at least it might be worthwhile to wait until they found a new CEO and (s)he had time to tidy up the closets from the remaining skeletons ...

[Beagle]

Well done?

If you take the revenue of the Australian appendix (first full year) out of the picture, than revenue (268m) did hardly change compared to last year (NZ slightly down, AU slightly up, but profitability down) - and certainly ended somewhat below anyway subdued analyst predictions (272m).

EPS (8.8 cents) did as well under perform compared to last year (10.5 cents) and compared to analyst expectations (9.4 cents).

NTA is negative (but this is not new - just what too much goodwill on the balance sheet really means).

If you call this "well done" How would a bad result look like?

Outlook for next year sounds like shareholders will be lucky if its not worse than this year.



Not quite convinced they reached already the bottom ... at least it might be worthwhile to wait until they found a new CEO and (s)he had time to tidy up the closets from the remaining skeletons ...

Well said, agree 100%. Very tough sector at the moment as FBU and STU results confirm...why bother with this sector ?
Then there's all that goodwill on the balance sheet that was valued based on continuous ongoing growth each year which is just some fantasy created by the IPO promotors. They waited till outside consultants told them what "blind freddy" already knew, that the construction sector is cyclical.
I reckon the truth is that goodwill figure is grossly inflated above fair value.
A rudderless ship on a journey to nowhere with plenty of systemic issues still to be uncovered by a new CEO if they can find a good one ?...how long have they been looking now ? Obviously its hard to find anyone who wants a hospital pass that will tarnish their future career ?

[Arbroath]

Result is OK imho given lowered expectations and with the share price at 83c = 5.7x EV/ebitda.

Key will be execution next 24 months to get debt down to c. $75m to reduce gearing before any real cycle softening kicks in.

[Filthy]

Well done?

If you take the revenue of the Australian appendix (first full year) out of the picture, than revenue (268m) did hardly change compared to last year (NZ slightly down, AU slightly up, but profitability down) - and certainly ended somewhat below anyway subdued analyst predictions (272m).

EPS (8.8 cents) did as well under perform compared to last year (10.5 cents) and compared to analyst expectations (9.4 cents).

NTA is basically naught (but this is not new - just what too much goodwill on the balance sheet really means).

If you call this "well done" How would a bad result look like?

Outlook for next year sounds like shareholders will be lucky if its not worse than this year.



Not quite convinced they reached already the bottom ... at least it might be worthwhile to wait until they found a new CEO and (s)he had time to tidy up the closets from the remaining skeletons ...

maybe it is all relative though. the SP has almost halved from $1.55 in July, for just a 16% drop in EPS. could it already be priced in?

[BlackPeter]

maybe it is all relative though. the SP has almost halved from $1.55 in July, for just a 16% drop in EPS. could it already be priced in?

Hard to say ... if the future looks good, it probably is. If the future looks bleak there is clearly lots of further down potential.

BTW - had a look at the RoE (NPAT / Shareholder Equity)- and here is another development I don't like:

2018FY: 11.4%
2017FY: 12.4%
2016FY: 14.1%

Anybody spotting the trend?

Still - I am not writing them off yet, but I think they will need a really good and clued up CEO and some hefty goodwill write offs to get out of the current descent ...

[bull....]

as expected , well down. Going on past experience of over promising and under delivering im expecting more pain going forward

[Balance]

Should give market some confidence

Yes — good buying in low 80s eh balance

Always right to buy at 82c, W69.

Happy with the results - no nasties hiding in them from what I can assess.

Great dividend yield and new management & some new directors to guide the company on the next stage of its journey - not exciting but hopefully, rewarding.

[Balance]

maybe it is all relative though. the SP has almost halved from $1.55 in July, for just a 16% drop in EPS. could it already be priced in?

It's called PE contraction - a lower profit (hence, EPS) results in a lower PER being accorded to the stock. Hence the recent 50% sp fall vs 16% drop in EPS.

Reverse will start happening if (when imo) MPG starts delivering on its forecast of a better result next year.

You can already see it in action today - MPG delivered on its downgraded forecast of 8.8 eps and the sp is up 7c, meaning a higher PER.

If (when imo) MPG delivers 10.5c next year, the sp will track higher - I believe a PER then of 12 so sp could be $1.26.

Happy holder.

Always right to buy at 82c. :D

[winner69]

Always right to buy at 82c, W69.

Happy with the results - no nasties hiding in them from what I can assess.

Great dividend yield and new management & some new directors to guide the company on the next stage of its journey - not exciting but hopefully, rewarding.

My average just over 82 mate ...bought some at 83

But I’ll say ‘always right to buy at 82c’ as well

[steveb]

I can beat that bought some in march for .79c,but my average is still $1.28 so still in the ****,just hope Balance gets it right at $1.26!

[t.rexjr]

It's called PE contraction - a lower profit (hence, EPS) results in a lower PER being accorded to the stock. Hence the recent 50% sp fall vs 16% drop in EPS.

Reverse will start happening if (when imo) MPG starts delivering on its forecast of a better result next year.

You can already see it in action today - MPG delivered on its downgraded forecast of 8.8 eps and the sp is up 7c, meaning a higher PER.

If (when imo) MPG delivers 10.5c next year, the sp will track higher - I believe a PER then of 12 so sp could be $1.26.

Happy holder.

Always right to buy at 82c. :D

That sp slash/fall is due to many changing their veiw that the company is one of growth to cyclical. If thats the case then I wouldn't be so keen to value it based on figures at the top of a cycle. 82c seems pretty good buying though...

[Balance]

That sp slash/fall is due to many changing their veiw that the company is one of growth to cyclical. If thats the case then I wouldn't be so keen to value it based on figures at the top of a cycle. 82c seems pretty good buying though...

The glass industry in NZ is basically a duopoly with some import competition for the major jobs.

My glazier contact (who has done some big projects like Britomart Auckland and Auckland Airport) said his firm preferred to obtain supply from a player like Metro Glass - the logistics of importing directly from China and Korea to save a few %tage is simply not worth the aggravation. There seems to be problems with shipments.

Mismanagement of MPG has been a factor in the last few years but it is a testimony to the underlying strength of the business that the company still made decent (albeit lower) profits despite the mismanagement.

Contrast MPG's earnings performance with STU and FBU to get some perspective.

Onwards and upwards from here, I hope.

[steveb]

Hey balance could be worth getting a few more soon,down to 85c inc divi,takes it to low 80's again.I'm back in again if it goes a little lower

[Balance]

Hey balance could be worth getting a few more soon,down to 85c inc divi,takes it to low 80's again.I'm back in again if it goes a little lower

Always right to buy at 82c.

I am there.

[Balance]

Always right to buy at 82c.

I am there.

90 cents bid.

No chance in short term to top up at 82 cents.

[carrom74]

90 cents bid.


No chance in short term to top up at 82 cents.

i never gave up on MPG... expecting more upswing..

Read an article the other day and the writer was surprised at the guidance given for FY2019 so early...I am not saying they will achieve it... but the intent is certainly there...

[t.rexjr]

Building consents are steadily edging up. 32,015 new homes consented in the 12 months to April 2018, the highest level since the high of 2004. ('growth'?)

Interesting that 'Houses' have plateaued since their peak in June 2016 (possible industry constraints?). Appartments, Town houses and 'Old folks homes' seem to be providing the upward trend

9719

[Balance]

The building & construction sector has started shifting away from maintaining market share (in the face of many new players in recent years) and the focus is now on profitability.

Good for all players.

Looking forward to next reporting date & confirmation of higher profitability - quality, not quantity.

[Scrunch]

The building & construction sector has started shifting away from maintaining market share (in the face of many new players in recent years) and the focus is now on profitability.

Good for all players.

Looking forward to next reporting date & confirmation of higher profitability - quality, not quantity.

A public example of this is Lincoln's and Ag Research's planned new building in lincoln. This has been delayed as "the quotes came in higher than expected".

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/education/104360662/education-minister-frustrated-as-lincoln-university-and-agresearch-further-delay-206m-facility

[Balance]

A public example of this is Lincoln's and Ag Research's planned new building in lincoln. This has been delayed as "the quotes came in higher than expected".

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/education/104360662/education-minister-frustrated-as-lincoln-university-and-agresearch-further-delay-206m-facility

Looks to be the case.

Rewarding executives based upon a market share is a recipe for disaster.

FBU's building & construction division is but the prime example of this gross HR mismanagement.

[Balance]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/319057

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MPG/319046/280631.pdf

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/316730

One swallow does not a summer maketh, but looks like the MPG is getting a second look and loose stock is getting absorbed.

Always right to buy at 82 cents.

[Snow Leopard]

... (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/319057)
Always right to buy at 82 cents.

75c was righter :mellow:.

Disc: my smallest NZX holding

[Oliver Mander]

This was my one big mistake last year. Cut my losses at $1.00, and loathe to buy back in. If I look at it objectively, it now does seem like a good buy again - but I don't necessarily trust the forecasts around this one, and the potential gain available does not outweigh the risk in my humble opinion...

[Balance]

This was my one big mistake last year. Cut my losses at $1.00, and loathe to buy back in. If I look at it objectively, it now does seem like a good buy again - but I don't necessarily trust the forecasts around this one, and the potential gain available does not outweigh the risk in my humble opinion...

Turnaround stories are hard to get right but when you do, they can be very rewarding - eg. Cavalier, Tenon to name 2.

What is different about MPG is that the company is inherently profitable and despite the downgrades, is still profitable and does not need a capital raise to repair its balance sheet (unlike FBU and now, STU).

So I am looking forward to a doubling of the share price over the next 2 years - modest increases in profits coupled with PER expansion.

DYOR as usual.

[winner69]

I think I saw 93 cents

Yes, always right to buy at 82 cents not that long ago (even lower for some smart asses)

[carrom74]

94 Cents... well done to all who waited patiently...

Nice rise... I remember the chairman buying it at 82 cents ...and so was Balance:)

[Balance]

94 Cents... well done to all who waited patiently...

Nice rise... I remember the chairman buying it at 82 cents ...and so was Balance:)

Modest increase in profits coupled with PE expansion should see us doubling our money in the next 2 years.

Was keen to top up a month ago when sp dipped back towards 82 cents but unfortunately it never got there.