Orion Health

[whatsup]

.90 atm no confidence . will my buy order get hit today.

[whatsup]

Last C R was at todays price of .90 so imo the next one will have to be much lower that that, it will be very interesting what the fish heads say that are preparing a "report" on the company !

[RupertBear]

Craigs updated report not as negative as I expected, maintains TP at 90c and believes cash burn should slow....

[whatsup]

Craigs updated report not as negative as I expected, maintains TP at 90c and believes cash burn should slow....

Aha ! that magic word " should " !!

[gbogo]

FNZS said today $1.27 still but that valuations are a bit academic given the uncertainty.

[value_investor]

Tick tock goes the clock on Orion

Not looking good on the cash flow aspect, how long before we need another capital raise?

[Carpenterjoe]

Yuck, Bad news coming?

[RupertBear]

Yuck, Bad news coming?

Yep I fear you are right....should have bailed on this one a while ago ..:( hope its not another Wynyard .. :crying:

[winner69]

Word on the street is that this is not a good place to be at the moment

Weren’t they a billion dollar company once?

[RupertBear]

Word on the street is that this is not a good place to be at the moment

Weren’t they a billion dollar company once?

Hmmm....I have that sinking feeling....might be time to jump of this ship before its too late...:confused:...oh shinning white knight where are you? ;)

[couta1]

Hmmm....I have that sinking feeling....might be time to jump of this ship before its too late...:confused:...oh shinning white knight where are you? ;) This and the HMS SLI.

[RupertBear]

This and the HMS SLI.

I had a feeling you would say that Couta :D

[RupertBear]

This and the HMS SLI.

Its time one of my sinking ships did a Serko on me! Please :t_up:

[RupertBear]

https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2018/02/08/1336281/0/en/Department-of-Health-and-Human-Services-in-Victoria-Signs-EMPI-Contract-to-Link-Public-Health-Services-Patient-Data-Across-the-State.html

Maybe a wee bit of good news ....

[winner69]

Heard a discussion about this Blockchain technology an$ how it’s ideal for such activities like keeping patients medical history and such things and it’s only a matter of time before something is developed for big hospitals or even for countries.

I have no idea how Orion do things but the immediate thought was that their ‘technology’ might be becoming obsolete.

[carrom74]

https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2018/02/08/1336281/0/en/Department-of-Health-and-Human-Services-in-Victoria-Signs-EMPI-Contract-to-Link-Public-Health-Services-Patient-Data-Across-the-State.html

Maybe a wee bit of good news ....

Did you see the depth today? something really bad....will be out soon.

[mondograss]

Heard a discussion about this Blockchain technology an$ how it’s ideal for such activities like keeping patients medical history and such things and it’s only a matter of time before something is developed for big hospitals or even for countries.

I have no idea how Orion do things but the immediate thought was that their ‘technology’ might be becoming obsolete.

Eventually, maybe. Healthcare systems are a huge investment and take a lot of work to implement. Few health organisations willingly change to a new provider if they can avoid it and just do incremental upgrades.

Some links for you though:
https://govinsider.asia/innovation/estonia-using-blockchain-to-secure-health-records/
https://www.techrepublic.com/google-amp/article/how-blockchain-could-save-lives-by-getting-medicine-where-its-needed/?__twitter_impression=true

[BlackPeter]

24. November 2014 - how things change ...

My projections are
Feb 2015 $6.8
Feb 2016 $10
Feb 2017 $12
Feb 2018 $14
Feb 2019 $16
Feb 2020 $18
With risk being weighted to upside rather than downside
nb North Americans are surprised how low it was priced in the IPO

Time will tell how well Orion Health Executes but I,m happy to hold for the ride as its only 10 % of my share portfolio
Any weakness will be an opportunity to top up
So many top up opportunities - or are you still waiting?



Word on the street is that this is not a good place to be at the moment

Weren’t they a billion dollar company once?

Well, yes - and it feels they are already ways past the euphoric exuberance phase. Remind me - what comes next?

[Balance]

Did you see the depth today? something really bad....will be out soon.

Damn hard market conditions currently to get funding.

[whatsup]

Is this an all time low .72, whats next another C R ?

[BlackPeter]

Is this an all time low .72, whats next another C R ?

Must be the last CR before they turn profitable, same as the one before this. Or did I mix that up with PEB?

[whatsup]

Must be the last CR before they turn profitable, same as the one before this. Or did I mix that up with PEB?

No WDT with $10000000000000000000 of tax losses to offset against future profits !!

[whatsup]

.70 and dropping, disappointment for all S Hers !

[BlackPeter]

.70 and dropping, disappointment for all S Hers !

LOL - but don't forget the strong support building up at 1 cent ;);

9591

[whatsup]

.69 !!!!!!!!

[whatsup]

Is OHE a .50 cent stock ?

[RGR367]

Is OHE a .50 cent stock ?

Okay, who's that joker wanting 100K of it at 10 cents :p

[whatsup]

Okay, who's that joker wanting 100K of it at 10 cents :p

.01 !! not .10 !!!

[moimoi]

In 3 days it will apparently be 12 months since a "strategic review" commenced.

The Company described it as having a "clear focus on maximising shareholder value".

Its difficult to know, given the paucity of information provided to non Management aligned shareholders, as highlighted by there being only one announcement to the market for this year.....

But

Did the review not uncover any options for "maximising shareholder value" or was there not really a "strategic review"?

GLTA.

[winner69]

Directors got their fees for the last six months by way of shares at 77 cents

Hopefully they are long term holders and waiting for the big pay day

[Balance]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/316260

Another update, another downgrade.

Luckily there are the likes of ATM and THL to compensate for all the downgrades flying in from OHE, MPG, TGH, VIL, PLX, SNK, PEB etc etc!

[permutation]

I am still reeling from the '87 crash! I now have rapidly increasing paper losses with the likes of OHE, PEB ,WHS, SKT in my portfolio??. Think my best stable returns are still from residential rentals and low interest short term deposits!

[BlackPeter]

I am still reeling from the '87 crash! I now have rapidly increasing paper losses with the likes of OHE, PEB ,WHS, SKT in my portfolio??. Think my best stable returns are still from residential rentals and low interest short term deposits!

Ever considered selling some of your duds? From personal experience -- it is so much more relaxing watching them drop when you don't hold anymore ;);

[permutation]

Ever considered selling some of your duds? From personal experience -- it is so much more relaxing watching them drop when you don't hold anymore ;);

Good point, will be consolidating portions of the portfolio every quarter. Will get some compensation from my 14% return from Harmoney Lending!:)

[moimoi]

"5 customers now live on the AWS hosted cloud solution."

How many millions did it cost to "achieve" this? (Particularly given the company describes itself as "a cloud leader in healthcare globally")

[Beagle]

Lead article behind the paywall on NBR today was Craigs analyst who rates them a SELL and reckons they have only $2.0m cash left.
Be careful folks !

[Balance]

Lead article behind the paywall on NBR today was Craigs analyst who rates them a SELL and reckons they have only $2.0m cash left.
Be careful folks !

Serious shxt when house broker (& joint IPO lead manager) puts a sell on the stock.

Could also mean of course that Orion is using another broker for its capital restructuring exercise which would not have gone down well with Craigs!

[RupertBear]

Serious shxt when house broker (& joint IPO lead manager) puts a sell on the stock.

Could also mean of course that Orion is using another broker for its capital restructuring exercise which would not have gone down well with Craigs!

Craigs have had a sell on Orion for the last year and they continue to be unimpressed.

[RupertBear]

Craigs have had a sell on Orion for the last year and they continue to be unimpressed.

Oh and they had a sell on HLG as well before they stopped following them! :ohmy:

TP OHE $0.63

[Beagle]

Craigs have had a sell on Orion for the last year and they continue to be unimpressed.
Yes its rare to see the house poodle, opps sorry meant house broker put a sell on a stock and keep it for so long. Kudos to them for calling this the flea ridden mutt it so obviously is.

[Balance]

Craigs have had a sell on Orion for the last year and they continue to be unimpressed.

Craigs will be pissed off like skunk too that they put a lot of their best clients into this over-subscribed IPO!

Ouch!

https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/orion-health-ipo-price-top-range-cs-165068

Whatever happened to all that demand from those who were scaled back to 10% to 15% of what they wanted in the IPO?

[RupertBear]

Craigs will be pissed off like skunk too that they put a lot of their best clients into this over-subscribed IPO!

Ouch!

https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/orion-health-ipo-price-top-range-cs-165068

Whatever happened to all that demand from those who were scaled back to 10% to 15% of what they wanted in the IPO?

Unfortunately I was one of their newbie clients and bought some in the IPO. Bought some Wynyard off them too. Stupid bear! :(

[Balance]

Unfortunately I was one of their newbie clients and bought some in the IPO. Bought some Wynyard off them too. Stupid bear! :(

Lesson learnt - onwards and forwards to better decisions and better investments!

[whatsup]

Lead article behind the paywall on NBR today was Craigs analyst who rates them a SELL and reckons they have only $2.0m cash left.
Be careful folks !

Drove past the Orion carpark today which had a fresh/new for sale sign on it advertising it as a commercial opportunity , it was its former car park, is this a sign of things to come ?

[Jaa]

Drove past the Orion carpark today which had a fresh/new for sale sign on it advertising it as a commercial opportunity , it was its former car park, is this a sign of things to come ?

That must be the $4-$5m surplus land which is being sold.

[Ggcc]

Was interested in this share a few years ago. Glad I lost interest, but sad to see how the sp has gone for investors

[Balance]

Rights issue of 1 for 2 at 30c?

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12026392

[Edited by Moderator: Copy & Paste of 'entire' article is copyright infringement]

[winner69]

Doesn’t sound like they have a viable business model

[RupertBear]

Behind NBR paywall so I cant read it but headline "Speculation Orion Health Close to Trade Sale" ...hmmm

[silu]

No wonder Kiwi investors don't have appetite in IPOs other than utilities. The so called market darlings Wynyard and Orion are sad examples. The only ship in that industry that seems to have turned the ship is Serko. btw I would have definitely participated in the Orion IPO but was cash poor and when looking for an entry I could never see a reversal.
discl. hold Serko

[Beagle]

Behind NBR paywall so I cant read it but headline "Speculation Orion Health Close to Trade Sale" ...hmmm

It is a speculative article quoting an industry insider source. The journalist says the insider has a good track record of tip-off's.

[RGR367]

It is a speculative article quoting an industry insider source. The journalist says the insider has a good track record of tip-off's.

As speculative stock as it is, that insider story could be true :)

[mikeybycrikey]

It is a speculative article quoting an industry insider source. The journalist says the insider has a good track record of tip-off's.

From the article:
Communications director Alex Mercer told NBR, “We have nothing to comment on at the moment. As appropriate, we’ll update shareholders of any material developments.”

That sounds a lot like a non-denial to me.

I'd be guessing a cash injection rather than a sale or a rights issue. Two rights issues in less than two years would be too embarrassing and negligent. And a sale at 10% of IPO would be surely too low for McCrae.

Could be tempting to buy if there is a success here but seems way too risky in the absence of any real information at this stage.

[whatsup]

Trade sale now what could that be, selling the U S operations, or what Aussie, N Z , buildings , whats left ?

[mondograss]

It's the software IP and on-going licensing etc that others will be after in a trade sale. Assuming it's a competitor you can expect them to rationalise the development team by migrating the work to their own coders, and probably most\all of upper management. Support and professional services staff will be mostly safe for a while as they get absorbed into a larger team.

A link to an earlier post of mine on how this sort of thing happened with one of Orions main competitors:
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9817-Orion-Health&p=646539&viewfull=1#post646539

[Balance]

From the article:
Communications director Alex Mercer told NBR, “We have nothing to comment on at the moment. As appropriate, we’ll update shareholders of any material developments.”

That sounds a lot like a non-denial to me.

I'd be guessing a cash injection rather than a sale or a rights issue. Two rights issues in less than two years would be too embarrassing and negligent. And a sale at 10% of IPO would be surely too low for McCrae.

Could be tempting to buy if there is a success here but seems way too risky in the absence of any real information at this stage.


Crackity made a very good point in the NBR coverage of OHE - if there is any substance to the trade sale negotiations, OHE should be on trading halt.

The fact that it is not, suggest the story could be planted to get the share price up to do a capital raising?

[babymonster]

looks like a CR to me with today's ann... usually a couple good news or pump up a bit before CR...

[whatsup]

looks like a CR to me with today's ann... usually a couple good news or pump up a bit before CR...

IMHO a C R at this stage of its current life will have to be heavily discounted to succeed and accompanied with some positive news for it to be a success , say 1 for 3 @ .50-.55 !!

[Balance]

IMHO a C R at this stage of its current life will have to be heavily discounted to succeed and accompanied with some positive news for it to be a success , say 1 for 3 @ .50-.55 !!

Cannot see any institutions or underwriters stepping up to the plate at that kind of a pricing - will have to be heavily discounted to get a CR away.

Big issue for the underwriters will McCrae wanting to retain control of his 'baby' - never mind the fact that under his leadership, the company has destroyed over $800 millions of shareholders' wealth since the IPO.

[whatsup]

Cannot see any institutions or underwriters stepping up to the plate at that kind of a pricing - will have to be heavily discounted to get a CR away.

Big issue for the underwriters will McCrae wanting to retain control of his 'baby' - never mind the fact that under his leadership, the company has destroyed over $800 millions of shareholders' wealth since the IPO.

Bearing in mind their low for this year was .57 !!

[Balance]

Bearing in mind their low for this year was .57 !!

Heading back towards 57c again?

Market is sensing a heavily discounted rights issue?

[winner69]

Always a bit of worry when this is written to sound good -

Following strong invoicing towards the end of the financial year the accounts receivable balance was at an all-time high for year ending 31 March 2018 which is expected to be collected during the first half of FY 2019.

[Sideshow Bob]

Always a bit of worry when this is written to sound good -

Following strong invoicing towards the end of the financial year the accounts receivable balance was at an all-time high for year ending 31 March 2018 which is expected to be collected during the first half of FY 2019.

It is always a bit of a worry that they invoice in one financial year and is EXPECTED to be collected in the first HALF of the next financial year.

What sort of terms are they giving? Or are they invoicing well before when the work is done or product delivered??

[Zeitgeist]

The audit opinion refers the reader to Note 1 of the accounts. Note 1 of the accounts regards the entity as a going concern.

"These conditions along with other matters as described in Note 1 indicate the existence of a material uncertainty that may cast significant doubt about the Group’s ability to continue as a going concern."

[gbogo]

I liked the Orion model - and have the investment losses to show for it. Still interested in how they progress or not. For all the cost-cutting, I am astounded that they have around 30 separate offices around the globe (in grand metropolises such as Santa Monica, Palma, Madrid, St John, Edmonton, Glasgow, Canberra and Belfast - and trumpet it in today's investor presentation - as it it was a triumph! I would have thought it was a very sensible alternative to have offices in London, West Coast, East Coast, Asia, Australia and NZ. SIX in total. That covers pretty much every time zone. Sales can travel and technical / project people can mostly work in the regional office. Maybe there is a genuine, realistic requirement for so many offices but I've seldom seen it in a business with a few hundred million in revenue. Ugh.

[silverblizzard888]

Looks like the share price is slowly creeping upwards, some renewed confidence in the company. One thing that the latest financials haven't taken into account is that they reduced their staff count by 18% recently, which on a wage bill of $145million is about $26 million savings there alone, so I think there is a lot of confidence they can reach break-even.

I'm actually astounded to see Rhaspody business has a gross profit of $27 and its the Hospital business that is losing the majority of the funds.

For me the break down in value is that Rhapsody is worth $200 million as a business itself, while the hospital unit in its current state is possibly worth 100 million.

Assuming they can get to break-even this is a $300 million plus business. It has its risk, but the reward seems to outweigh the risk on this one.

[Sideshow Bob]

From todays NZ Herald:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12079616

[whatsup]

From todays NZ Herald:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12079616

great article, imo the jury is still out on Orion, the biggee which came out of this article is Obama Care

[babymonster]

Sp rally a bit today due to the annual report or the herald report?

[hardt]

Looks like the share price is slowly creeping upwards, some renewed confidence in the company. One thing that the latest financials haven't taken into account is that they reduced their staff count by 18% recently, which on a wage bill of $145million is about $26 million savings there alone, so I think there is a lot of confidence they can reach break-even.

I'm actually astounded to see Rhaspody business has a gross profit of $27 and its the Hospital business that is losing the majority of the funds.

For me the break down in value is that Rhapsody is worth $200 million as a business itself, while the hospital unit in its current state is possibly worth 100 million.

Assuming they can get to break-even this is a $300 million plus business. It has its risk, but the reward seems to outweigh the risk on this one.

The most valuable part of Orion is their customer base, not their systems as they are not close to best in class.
[ To name one competitor ] Datacom are doing it bigger and better, they are showing substantial growth where Orion are losing customers.

With profits out of sight in the short term, everyone knows more cap raises are coming... if I was looking to buyout OHE I would watch them bleed out a while longer.

[slingy]

Rhapsody business unit 75% has been sold for $205 million.
Share buy-back between 1.24 - 1.29
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/320296

[Sideshow Bob]

Market likes it - back over $1.00 for the first time since October last year.

[whatsup]

Although this is a fantastic agreement and somewhat expected it does not solve Orions underline problems that of the health industry's acceptance to its suits of health systems, imo the market will wait to see what can happen in the short term but Im thinking that there will be a softening in price unless they get big runs on the board.

[silverblizzard888]

Looks like the share price is slowly creeping upwards, some renewed confidence in the company. One thing that the latest financials haven't taken into account is that they reduced their staff count by 18% recently, which on a wage bill of $145million is about $26 million savings there alone, so I think there is a lot of confidence they can reach break-even.

I'm actually astounded to see Rhaspody business has a gross profit of $27 and its the Hospital business that is losing the majority of the funds.

For me the break down in value is that Rhapsody is worth $200 million as a business itself, while the hospital unit in its current state is possibly worth 100 million.

Assuming they can get to break-even this is a $300 million plus business. It has its risk, but the reward seems to outweigh the risk on this one.

I'm not going to call myself amazing, but I was pretty much on point.

[carrom74]

I'm not going to call myself amazing, but I was pretty much on point.

Have to admit... researched a bit of Orion after your comments.There was an element of reward outweighing risk.

Took a plunge and look now....Thank you for your analysis and yes you were pretty much to the point! especially the valuation of Rhapsody.

[silverblizzard888]

Have to admit... researched a bit of Orion after your comments.There was an element of reward outweighing risk.

Took a plunge and look now....Thank you for your analysis and yes you were pretty much to the point! especially the valuation of Rhapsody.

Thanks! I'm glad it work out well, and together we are laughing our way to the bank, thanks for the faith in what I said too. Nothing makes a investor happier than the day they made the right choice in the right investment and at the right time too!^^

[RupertBear]

I'm not going to call myself amazing, but I was pretty much on point.

You were definitely pretty much on point silverblizzard, well done!

Unfortunately I am not laughing my way to the bank having bought in before things really went to custard and stupidly holding on. I have learned not to do that anymore. Thankfully my big red arrow is now not so big and that makes me very happy. I will probably take up any buy back offer and run for the hills ;)

[RupertBear]

Thanks! I'm glad it work out well, and together we are laughing our way to the bank, thanks for the faith in what I said too. Nothing makes a investor happier than the day they made the right choice in the right investment and at the right time too!^^

Would you buy in now silverblizzard or top up your holding? I am just wondering if my experience of holding at a loss for so long is why I want to jump ship asap. It may actually be worth holding onto now. :confused: Hmmm better go and do me some research!

[moimoi]

Not sure how fantastic this is..

So Hg buys Rhapsody for $205M. Take out $8M for "costs".

Then Orion uses that money to effectively buy back a 25% stake in Rhapsody for $28M and buy back / invest for a 75% stake in Population Health for $12M.

So the net investment into Orion is 205-8-28-12 = $157m.

With 200m shares on issue the net investment / cash available to "buyout" shareholders that choose to depart is equivalent to 78.5 cents a share (which a skeptic could say partially explains why Orion shares have been trading on the NZX @ around 75-80 cents for the last 4 months)

The "buyout" figure is improved by the fact that Mr McCrae is retaining 80% of his holding and evidently only selling / cancelling 20% or 19.5M of his 97.5M shares, thereby inflating the "buyback" figure for the others that choose to accept.

The unknowable is what value is the market going to ascribe to the loss making Population Health and Hospitals business(s).

Given that potentially a large portion of the remaining 102.5M (200M float less McRae 97.5M) shares may be cancelled as a result of the "buyback" then effectively Mr McCrae obtains a large increase in his level of ownership of Orion.

His shares are unlikely to be traded day to day, leading to a very limited free float of shares.

The potential result being an even more illiquid stock than what it is now.

IMO.

[golden city]

Can anyone work out what the profitability like next year without the profitable division

[silverblizzard888]

Would you buy in now silverblizzard or top up your holding? I am just wondering if my experience of holding at a loss for so long is why I want to jump ship asap. It may actually be worth holding onto now. :confused: Hmmm better go and do me some research!

I'm pretty happy with the gain I've made so I will elect to sell 100% of my position, but thats because I have earnt a return that is above market averages and I'm prepared to find another opportunity that would give me a decent return. I will admit that Orion is probably a better business with this investment, but the uncertainty around it is a bit hard to calculate and for me I've learn in the past to make the most of my capital and not be too greedy, the longer I stay the bigger the risk in some cases of the current gains.

Quick calculation (due to limited info) forecast was for FY 19 revenue to be similar if not slightly higher by the company originally, though with extra investment I'd expected some extra business and bit more profits, though we are left with the higher portion of the loss making units.

Rhapsody: 24.9% owned, of the $60 million revenue, I estimated about $15 million in profit from the business. Of that $3.73 million will be Orions.

Due to lack of clarity in numbers since they merged the numbers in Population Health and Hospital business its unclear, though I will assume Population health is the business doing better that is why it was partly acquired.

Population Health: 75.1% owned, $70 million revenue (estimated), $5 million profits . $3.755 profits earning attibutributed .

Hospital: 100% ownership, $55 million (estimated), loss $5 million, loss attributed $5 million.

Overall a $2.485 million profit for FY19. I expect FY 20 to be a decent year for the company that will see Rhapsody earn $20 million, Population Health Earning $10 million and Hospital unit breaking even. When attributed to Orion will be worth about $4.98 million + 7.51 million = $12.49 million profit FY20

I'm not sure how many shareholders will elect to stay so hard to imagine the likely structure and shareholder count going forward. My valuation would imply $100 million dollar business left over for the present time and FY19 forecast ($100 million + $157 million = $257 million value today), if they can execute well for FY20 then we could well have a $200 -250 million business (357 - $407 million value based on FY 20 and the cash offered today) .

So for me there is still a upside, but I never like being in a situation of uncertainty. If the business does perform accordingly and I lack other opportunities then I would considering buying back in in the future, but until then I made decisions that I have certainty over. It is always harder when trying to make a rational decision when you have made a loss. Questions to ponder are do you have other better opportunities or if you still have belief in the business going forward.

*Please note thats are all estimates based on known information and estimates from my part and may lack good accuracy or error in calculation.
*Assumption is Hg brings expertise and scale-ability to the business that saves cost and improves margins

[RupertBear]

I'm pretty happy with the gain I've made so I will elect to sell 100% of my position, but thats because I have earnt a return that is above market averages and I'm prepared to find another opportunity that would give me a decent return. I will admit that Orion is probably a better business with this investment, but the uncertainty around it is a bit hard to calculate and for me I've learn in the past to make the most of my capital and not be too greedy, the longer I stay the bigger the risk in some cases of the current gains.

Quick calculation (due to limited info) forecast was for FY 19 revenue to be similar if not slightly higher by the company originally, though with extra investment I'd expected some extra business and bit more profits, though we are left with the higher portion of the loss making units.

Rhapsody: 24.9% owned, of the $60 million revenue, I estimated about $15 million in profit from the business. Of that $3.73 million will be Orions.

Due to lack of clarity in numbers since they merged the numbers in Population Health and Hospital business its unclear, though I will assume Population health is the business doing better that is why it was partly acquired.

Population Health: 75.1% owned, $70 million revenue (estimated), $5 million profits . $3.755 profits earning attibutributed .

Hospital: 100% ownership, $55 million (estimated), loss $5 million, loss attributed $5 million.

Overall a $2.485 million profit for FY19. I expect FY 20 to be a decent year for the company that will see Rhapsody earn $20 million, Population Health Earning $10 million and Hospital unit breaking even. When attributed to Orion will be worth about $4.98 million + 7.51 million = $12.49 million profit FY20

I'm not sure how many shareholders will elect to stay so hard to imagine the likely structure and shareholder count going forward. My valuation would imply $100 million dollar business left over for the present time and FY19 forecast ($100 million + $157 million = $257 million value today), if they can execute well for FY20 then we could well have a $200 -250 million business (357 - $407 million value based on FY 20 and the cash offered today) .

So for me there is still a upside, but I never like being in a situation of uncertainty. If the business does perform accordingly and I lack other opportunities then I would considering buying back in in the future, but until then I made decisions that I have certainty over. It is always harder when trying to make a rational decision when you have made a loss. Questions to ponder are do you have other better opportunities or if you still have belief in the business going forward.

*Please note thats are all estimates based on known information and estimates from my part and may lack good accuracy or error in calculation.
*Assumption is Hg brings expertise and scale-ability to the business that saves cost and improves margins

Thanks heaps for your thoughts silverblizzard, much appreciated. I will probably sell 100% of my holdings as well. They have yet to prove to me they will do what they say they will do and until they do there is too much uncertainty for me. My loss will still hurt but it will be smaller than it was and nothing like my dire experience with Wynyard which I was fearful of repeating so I am happy about that. I also think there are better places to park my money. :)

[RupertBear]

Craigs have recomended sell 100%

[whatsup]

Selling of after lunch, $1.10 and dropping, how can this be so weak if the buy back is .15 higher or is there too much uncertainty with the deal ?

[RupertBear]

Selling of after lunch, $1.10 and dropping, how can this be so week if the buy back is .15 higher or is there too much uncertainty with the deal ?

Been wondering the same thing myself. :confused:

[silverblizzard888]

Thanks heaps for your thoughts silverblizzard, much appreciated. I will probably sell 100% of my holdings as well. They have yet to prove to me they will do what they say they will do and until they do there is too much uncertainty for me. My loss will still hurt but it will be smaller than it was and nothing like my dire experience with Wynyard which I was fearful of repeating so I am happy about that. I also think there are better places to park my money. :)

Thats good its very mature thinking going on there and you will get better at it as time goes. Let this be experience you can learn on and it will help you in the future.


Selling of after lunch, $1.10 and dropping, how can this be so weak if the buy back is .15 higher or is there too much uncertainty with the deal ?

Just people selling to get the use of their capital, since it could be months before all of this officially gets settled many don't want to wait so they can get the extra gains. It's the marshmallow test all over again, people who get a marshmallow place infront of them can take it and eat it now or wait and get another for waiting. Most have like 4-5 marshmallows infront of them and if they wait they might get 1 more so its a question of wait or take and there is always going to be some people who will take it now.

[whatsup]

Thats good its very mature thinking going on there and you will get better at it as time goes. Let this be experience you can learn on and it will help you in the future.



Just people selling to get the use of their capital, since it could be months before all of this officially gets settled many don't want to wait so they can get the extra gains. It's the marshmallow test all over again, people who get a marshmallow place infront of them can take it and eat it now or wait and get another for waiting. Most have like 4-5 marshmallows infront of them and if they wait they might get 1 more so its a question of wait or take and there is always going to be some people who will take it now.

Back up to $1.15 now 4 trades later.

[silverblizzard888]

Back up to $1.15 now 4 trades later.

Should just swing back and forth until it gets closer to the announcement of settlement.

[moimoi]

Wonder if shareholders will capture any of the gains from the recent declines in the $NZ via improved pricing of "the offer" or will that only accrue to the aquirer..?

[whatsup]

$1.00 buy order now , has the market given up on this restructuring atm ?

[moimoi]

Perhaps its because unless your buying for a quick flick into the probable buyout offer then the company appears near uninvestable. The unknowable is what value is the market going to ascribe to the loss making Populations and Hospitals business(s).

There is currently little visibilty how long they'll take to reach profitability (if ever), and for how much longer they will keep spending like drunken sailors on "developing" the product.

The whole thing may not last much longer on the NZX anyways. The controlling shareholder is selling 20% or 19.5M of its 97.5M shares. Not only does this inflate the "buyback" figure to encourage others to accept, it also raises near sufficient cash to buyout any pesky minority holders remaining at the 90% level of compulsory aquisition and take it private.

[whatsup]

So why is OHE selling at a 20% discount to its buy back indicated price, does not the market believe the project ?
Roll on Friday , lets hope that there is some good news update for us long sufferers ?

[Balance]

So why is OHE selling at a 20% discount to its buy back indicated price, does not the market believe the project ?
Roll on Friday , lets hope that there is some good news update for us long sufferers ?

20% discount? Maybe not.

Firstly, share buyback range has dropped from $1.24 to $1.29 to $1.16 to $1.26.

Secondly, there is no certainty that the final buyback price will be within the new range! Could be lower (subject to adjustments) in which case the company will seek shareholders' approval on the buyback price.

Thirdly, the transaction is still subject to a number of conditions outside of OHE's controls - including OIO approval. Those who went through the Tegel situation will appreciate that this can be most unpredictable!

Also, McCrae will continue to be CEO when it is clear that he is not leadership material and has overseen a catastrophic destruction of shareholders' wealth.

Guess those who were brave enough to buy OHE shares at between 60c to 70c (where big volumes were done) are happy to take their gains and move on now that the value of OHE is 'established' and it's clear that nothing is going to change with McCrae in charge.

Just my take on this sad saga.

[Jonboyz]

AGM: Orion Health saved?

"The mood was generally downbeat as investors scoffed into the sausage rolls after the main AGM presentation..."

SOURCE: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12133606

[babymonster]

well... just can crossed my fingers.

[Balance]

well... just can crossed my fingers.

Reading the NZ Herald article, seems to me that McCrae is undertaking privatisation by stealth.

Under his leadership, OHE has burned through $125m of the IPO money while he has extracted over $2m of salaries & fees since listing. The BOD took over $700k of fees last year!

Chairman Ferrier's fees were $195,000 per year!

Cannot see him (McCrae) being prepared to carry those kind of fees post share buyback in a severely slimmed down OHE, can you?

If I had shares, I would hold and see him out - he is sure to privatize post the share buyback and will pay more than the share buyback price imo.

[RupertBear]

Reading the NZ Herald article, seems to me that McCrae is undertaking privatisation by stealth.

Under his leadership, OHE has burned through $125m of the IPO money while he has extracted over $2m of salaries & fees since listing. The BOD took over $700k of fees last year!

If I had shares, I would hold and see him out - he is sure to privatize post the share buyback and will pay more than the share buyback price imo.

Thanks for sharing your thoughts Balance, I was considering bailing out today and putting whats left of my investment somewhere else as I can see this dragging on for quite sometime and the sp staying stagnant or going down. Hmm not sure

[Balance]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OHE/325705/289085.pdf

OIO approval received - this is the one condition which McCrae referred to as probably the most opaque with no idea of time line.

So shareholders could very well get their payout by Christmas 2018.

[RupertBear]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OHE/325705/289085.pdf

OIO approval received - this is the one condition which McCrae referred to as probably the most opaque with no idea of time line.

So shareholders could very well get their payout by Christmas 2018.

Hope so, would like to see the back end of this mutt.

[Balance]

Hope so, would like to see the back end of this mutt.

Haha - buy more!

[RupertBear]

Haha - buy more!

Not on your life! Been there, done that, got stung more than once! :p

[Balance]

Not on your life! Been there, done that, got stung more than once! :p

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/326264

Range updated to $1.20 - $1.25

In time for Christmas 2018!

[babymonster]

well, 50% loss is better than nothing left...

[Blendy]

$1.224 - with a range of options to sell up or stay in a bit longer...

[kiwico]

well, 50% loss is better than nothing left...

Same thoughts here. I'm in and done and so soon will be out. I see payment will be with me within five working days.

[Sideshow Bob]

Same thoughts here. I'm in and done and so soon will be out. I see payment will be with me within five working days.

I have a very smallholding and will clear the decks with this.

[whatsup]

Looks like most of the fish heads are accepting the offer.

[RupertBear]

well, 50% loss is better than nothing left...

Yep my thoughts as well. :cool:

[moimoi]

$1.224 - with a range of options to sell up or stay in a bit longer...

Looks very doubtful that anyone will be welcome to "stay in a bit longer".

All the directors and the 2nd and 3rd largest holders have accepted for 100%.

McCrae Ltd's considered sale of 20% of its holdings has probably raised sufficient funds to conduct the compulsory acquitsition of any holdouts over the 90% level.

[RGR367]

It was after all speculation when I bought it from around 180 and averaged down a lot more after that so I'll just leave 50% off to continue speculating on this stock. Gut feels taking a continued punt on it is still the way of using that earmarked money anyway :cool:

[whatsup]

OHE money hit my bank yesterday.

[BlackPeter]

OHE money hit my bank yesterday.

How many cents in the dollar did they return to you? Condolations for your loss, but at least you got something back ...

Too many sad investment stories around: WYN, CBL, CRP, GEN, PEB, OHE ... there must be something we can learn from them?

[Balance]

How many cents in the dollar did they return to you? Condolations for your loss, but at least you got something back ...

Too many sad investment stories around: WYN, CBL, CRP, GEN, PEB, OHE ... there must be something we can learn from them?

Warren Buffett's first rule of investing : "Avoid losses!"

Add to the list - Feltex, IQE, PRC, SNK, PPL, VIL etc etc etc.

Other pertinent rules of investing according to Buffett : "Invest in companies you understand and invest like the markets could shut down for 5 years".

[whatsup]

How many cents in the dollar did they return to you? Condolations for your loss, but at least you got something back ...

Too many sad investment stories around: WYN, CBL, CRP, GEN, PEB, OHE ... there must be something we can learn from them?

B P , Fortunately I never understood the business model of OHE so didn't buy at the time of the froth but ultimately did buy once I thought it had come off the bottom @ .85 so made up for some of my losses and dreadful other investments decisions,, WYN, PEB, SNK to name a few.

[BlackPeter]

B P , Fortunately I never understood the business model of OHE so didn't buy at the time of the froth but ultimately did buy once I thought it had come off the bottom @ .85 so made up for some of my losses and dreadful other investments decisions,, WYN, PEB, SNK to name a few.

Glad to hear that. In every misery there is a happy story. I used to make money with WYN :t_up: ... but unfortunately lost it again with CBL :t_down:.

[Sideshow Bob]

Got my cash from my XS shareholding. I now have a new outdoor bar leaner - very nice. Will enjoy this more than my OHE holding.

[winner69]

OHE will finally delist now ‘Taken over’

Great example of how capital markets shouldn’t work

[Lola]

OHE will finally delist now ‘Taken over’

Great example of how capital markets shouldn’t work

Agreed. But I couldnt help loading up on this stock as they were so strongly recommended out of the Kapiti Coast. "Never again!" as he is often forced to relunctantly admit.

[golden city]

Too bad no chance for recovery

[Balance]

Agreed. But I couldnt help loading up on this stock as they were so strongly recommended out of the Kapiti Coast. "Never again!" as he is often forced to relunctantly admit.

Same advisor who had his own ratings system for the finance companies which recommended SCF, Hanover, Strategic Finance etc etc?

Same advisor who thought the sun shone out of Allan Hubbard's arse before SCF collapsed in one whole heap?

[Marilyn Munroe]

Same advisor who had his own ratings system for the finance companies which recommended SCF, Hanover, Strategic Finance etc etc?

Same advisor who thought the sun shone out of Allan Hubbard's arse before SCF collapsed in one whole heap?

To be fair the advisor was poking the borax at the really shonky finance companies when no one else was.

Yes he got sucked in by Allan Hubbard but even Allan Hubbard was sucked in by the legend of Allan Hubbard.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[Baa_Baa]

Has anyone figured out what McCrae ended up with, he listed the company late 2014 for moonbeams (shonky no forecasts .. how did that turn out?), presided over an investors wealth destruction (only good thing was a 100% upside trade Feb 2016 to May 2016 for the truely enlightened trader), lately flicked a part of the company that might have been actually any good, then ends up taking over the shell back into private ownership. Smells bad but I'm not onto OHE enough to know how it worked out for McCrae himself, did he do OK, fantastic, lose a bit, lose a lot .. anyone know?

[Balance]

To be fair the advisor was poking the borax at the really shonky finance companies when no one else was.

Yes he got sucked in by Allan Hubbard but even Allan Hubbard was sucked in by the legend of Allan Hubbard.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

He did but he also proceeded to put his clients into just about all the other finance companies and when they all went broke, he pretended it had nothing to do with his ratings system!

[Balance]

Has anyone figured out what McCrae ended up with, he listed the company late 2014 for moonbeams (shonky no forecasts .. how did that turn out?), presided over an investors wealth destruction (only good thing was a 100% upside trade Feb 2016 to May 2016 for the truely enlightened trader), lately flicked a part of the company that might have been actually any good, then ends up taking over the shell back into private ownership. Smells bad but I'm not onto OHE enough to know how it worked out for McCrae himself, did he do OK, fantastic, lose a bit, lose a lot .. anyone know?

He has done ok.

Blew through some serious money to develop OHE further, and goes back to owning all of it (less 75% of the best part).

[Beagle]

If someone put a gun to my head, (you'd have to because I wouldn't buy either), and said would you buy this or XRO ? I'd choose XRO in a heartbeat. At least that has genuine dynamic growth and is substantially made up of recurring business regardless of how over-priced it may be. I find it peculiar that such a small float would seek a dual listing with all the extra costs that incurs and the size of the company's loss $14.8m for the six months to 30 September 2014 on turnover of only $80m looks like a real worry especially seeing as how the company has been profitable before. How is it that the company has been able to grow at 25-30% growth in the past while remaining profitable.
All the low hanging fruit in this niche health sector already picked ? Floating a pup with little to no chance of making any money in the foreseeable future ?
Current growth rates slowing despite massive increase in new staff hire ? Pricing in the next six years prospective growth that may or may not happen into the present IPO price like reestablishment of consistent 30% growth in future years is a given ?
Have we got another Hirepool on our hands with a blatantly greedy promoter ?

Posted 28/10/2014. Some dog braked clearly this was a pup. If only it was this easy to spot the winners (sigh).

[Balance]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/52a6717c/orion-s-independent-directors-recommend-takeover-offer.html

Independent valuation?

Amazing how Korda Mentha has come out with a valuation range of $1.00 to $1.47 - mid point $1.235 - vs the compulsory takeover price of $1.225!

These valuation experts are as useful in assisting investors as buffoon Muldoon was at managing the NZ economy!

[whatsup]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/52a6717c/orion-s-independent-directors-recommend-takeover-offer.html

Independent valuation?

Amazing how Korda Mentha has come out with a valuation range of $1.00 to $1.47 - mid point $1.235 - vs the compulsory takeover price of $1.225!

These valuation experts are as useful in assisting investors as buffoon Muldoon was at managing the NZ economy!


IMO or IMHO Longie/Palmer/Clark/Shipley/Peters and the current lot of m@got$

[Sideshow Bob]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/52a6717c/orion-s-independent-directors-recommend-takeover-offer.html

Independent valuation?

Amazing how Korda Mentha has come out with a valuation range of $1.00 to $1.47 - mid point $1.235 - vs the compulsory takeover price of $1.225!

These valuation experts are as useful in assisting investors as buffoon Muldoon was at managing the NZ economy!

Gee, I detect a hint of cynicism there B. Not sure why given Orion's IPO and subsequent performance. ;)

[Balance]

Gee, I detect a hint of cynicism there B. Not sure why given Orion's IPO and subsequent performance. ;)

https://orionhealth.com/media/4453/2018-09-07-orion-report.pdf

$1.15 - $1.61 was the valuation range back in September 2018 by said Morda Mentha so I guess I am just a tiny bit cynical!

Hope an institution with 10% of the remaining shares take OHE & Korda on by requiring an independent valuation (under Takeovers Code) - which will be binding on all parties.

[whatsup]

Looks like Orion Health is finally getting some good traction according to todays Business Desk I wonder if there is a rebirth future for this share now ?

[Lola]

Looks like Orion Health is finally getting some good traction according to todays Business Desk I wonder if there is a rebirth future for this share now ?

Lets watch for the Kapiti Guru to run his ruler over this again before taking the plunge.

[fastbike]

Lets watch for the Kapiti Guru to run his ruler over this again before taking the plunge.


Interesting. I made some $ by buying before the bounce, but working in Health IT, i'd not touch them with my mate's barge pole.