Orion Health

[Beagle]

Refusing to make a forecast at all should have rung serious alarm bells for any astute investor. Surely they had a business plan for at least the next year and a range of sales outcomes...whatever happened to the old fashioned notion of picking the most conservative forecast and beating it ? Why so adverse to that ?

[RGR367]

There is somethng innately wrong when the CEO had been heavily focused on research and development. I repeat, research and development?

[Lola]

So this March quarter not going to be too flash either

While receipts from customers are traditionally slower in the third quarter of each financial year they were lower than expected in the third quarter of FY 2015 due to slower contract closures and billings in North America. Management expect this trend to continue in the fourth quarter of FY 2015. In addition receipts from customers were adversely affected by the on-going planned transition from perpetual licences to subscription contracts.
So the guessing game will start: What price will the cash issue be in 12 months? $5, $4 or $3? Three would be nice especially if one sold a chunk at $5.60. One things for sure all these soft wear outfits always need more cash than they ever think they will to get them through their early days of growth ; think XRO, etc. The more positive the story the more cash is usually needed. Oh so familiar.

[BFG]

So the guessing game will start: What price will the cash issue be in 12 months? $5, $4 or $3? Three would be nice especially if one sold a chunk at $5.60. One things for sure all these soft wear outfits always need more cash than they ever think they will to get them through their early days of growth ; think XRO, etc. The more positive the story the more cash is usually needed. Oh so familiar.

Oh so true. I see that the CEO is VERY confident that everyone will buy the upgraded version, and even invoked the mighty Apple name...

The quietly added he'll be doubling R&D staff! If anyone is in doubt about the bottomline, you can rest assured now...

PROFITS WILL NOT BE SEEN AGAIN FOR QUITE SOME TIME!

Looks like yet another Xero-style model, without the massive growth prospects. Better start ploughing social media, sucking up to VC suitors and making sector-altering, 'beautiful software', because that's what he is asking for!

[winner69]

Oh so true. I see that the CEO is VERY confident that everyone will buy the upgraded version, and even invoked the mighty Apple name...

The quietly added he'll be doubling R&D staff! If anyone is in doubt about the bottomline, you can rest assured now...

PROFITS WILL NOT BE SEEN AGAIN FOR QUITE SOME TIME!

Looks like yet another Xero-style model, without the massive growth prospects. Better start ploughing social media, sucking up to VC suitors and making sector-altering, 'beautiful software', because that's what he is asking for!

R&D costs are running at about $12m to $13m a quarter.

Another 350 staff will probably double that over the next couple of years

But then April is going to see a humdinger of a product launch so all honky dory

[Frostwind]

Should I buy this one now or MJP at 40c AUD ?

[BFG]

Should I buy this one now or MJP at 40c AUD ?

You should buy OHE @ 40c :D :D :D

[Baa_Baa]

Oh, a truer word is rarely spoken.

Look, this company is undoubtedly successful but they have chosen to float at a risky time. They are developing and hope to rollout a new product, most of their customer they will hope will upgrade. So it's hardly surprising that their development costs have skyrocketed, and their earnings are unstable. But they rely on hope.

This is a classic case of a company who needs public investment to take the next step. It is not about their historical performance. Some have bought into an IT Industry 'next gen' story. They may make it, then again they may not. Even if they do, they will take longer than most investors patience, imho. So it's ultra speculative, and at a price that is above many 'sure bets' on the NZX.

The other thing people might want to consider is that this management, and board, are new to the market, they are not accustomed to the outcomes of failing to meet forecasts. Their management like lots of IT companies, carry a sales target, or revenue target (or if they're a bit more mature, a profit target, but most don't). Those management reluctantly agree to 'stretch targets' .. why, because they feel they have to in order to conform, and because of greed .. if they make it, they also make a handsome bonus.

But if they fail to meet those optimistic targets, as they have, they might not earn their bonus, but the board has to deal with the reality of failure ... yes, failure to achieve their forecasts ... to the public. It's a big step going from being self suffficient to ticking all the boxes of public listing.

Hardly surprising though... looping back to the emphasis on a whole new 'next gen' product, those poor sales persons are facing an 'upgrade inertia' problem.

So I think that the IPO was overbought and the company overpriced .. because what you have ahead of you is not the same company that got you here. It's a company betting on the next-gen product, hence the huge costs surge. This means it will take time for their customer base to upgrade.

Time for growth was never a factor in the IPO. It darn well is now though!

BAA



Refusing to make a forecast at all should have rung serious alarm bells for any astute investor. Surely they had a business plan for at least the next year and a range of sales outcomes...whatever happened to the old fashioned notion of picking the most conservative forecast and beating it ? Why so adverse to that ?

[kiora]

From the PEB thread,link from MAC
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/31/us/obama-to-unveil-research-initiative-aiming-to-develop-tailored-medical-treatments.html?_r=1
:)

[kiora]

From NBR
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/orion-health-talks-down-cashflow-leakage-investors-fret-db-168025

[BFG]

Sub-$5 today. You heard it here first ;)

[Balance]

Spoke with an investment banker who has dealt with Orion Health before. Arrogant and unrealistic are his comments.

Amen.

All entirely predictable.

[winner69]

All entirely predictable.

Happy new year mate

Good break

[Balance]

Happy new year mate

Good break

Happy New Year to you too, matey.

Been a great summer and looking like it could stretch on for a while longer yet!

Here's hoping there's less of OHEs this year and more of HNZ's and THL's!

[BFG]

Happy New Year to you too, matey.

Been a great summer and looking like it could stretch on for a while longer yet!

Here's hoping there's less of OHEs this year and more of HNZ's and THL's!
Welcome back good sir, we missed you (well, at least I did!) :)

[Xerof]

No forecast means none of my money will head their way. I am not even going to bother reading their prospectus.



Peops now understanding why there were no forecasts.......

Welcome back Balance

Most of the early comments on here were negative. As a group, ST posters seem to make a fairly good bell-weather indicator. Long may it last.

[bunter]

Peops now understanding why there were no forecasts.......

Apparently management had fairly well-informed 'expectations' though.

Firstly, good on them for admitting the results were poor. They could have said nothing, or even presented them as a triumph - and who'd have known?

But why didn't they disclose their expectations at offer time?

[Frostwind]

Apparently management had fairly well-informed 'expectations' though.

Firstly, good on them for admitting the results were poor. They could have said nothing, or even presented them as a triumph - and who'd have known?

But why didn't they disclose their expectations at offer time?

How are they going to unload at $5.7 had they disclose that?

[Balance]

Peops now understanding why there were no forecasts.......

Welcome back Balance

Most of the early comments on here were negative. As a group, ST posters seem to make a fairly good bell-weather indicator. Long may it last.

There is a wealth of experience lurking here indeed, Xerof.

And it's good to restate the obvious from time to time against the tide of market sentiment unlike the NZX itself which imo has now being managed to maximise profits for the operator rather than a balance with care for investors.

Best to steer clear of the NXT market!

Statement of the year in 2014 : "NZX chief executive Tim Bennett told the audience gathered at the firm's Grafton head office for yesterday's listing ceremony that Orion's IPO was probably the most significant event in New Zealand's capital markets this year".

[Frostwind]

There is a wealth of experience lurking here indeed, Xerof.

And it's good to restate the obvious from time to time against the tide of market sentiment unlike the NZX itself which imo has now being managed to maximise profits for the operator rather than a balance with care for investors.

Best to steer clear of the NXT market!

Statement of the year in 2014 : "NZX chief executive Tim Bennett told the audience gathered at the firm's Grafton head office for yesterday's listing ceremony that Orion's IPO was probably the most significant event in New Zealand's capital markets this year".

It's not the NZX's job to steer investors away from bubbly stocks, it's their job to facilitate a fair exchange that allow buyers and sellers to transact in a fair manner, as well as making sure the companies are playing by the rule. If people are willing to pay up, it's really their choice :)

[Balance]

It's not the NZX's job to steer investors away from bubbly stocks, it's their job to facilitate a fair exchange that allow buyers and sellers to transact in a fair manner, as well as making sure the companies are playing by the rule. If people are willing to pay up, it's really their choice :)

Great attitude to drive NZ investors out of the market and into properties.

No wonder the likes of PLus SMS, Snakk, Feltex, finance company bonds etc proliferate in the NZ market!

Go over to other countries and observe the strict rules they put in place to protect investors. Here the NZX regulates itself!

[Harvey Specter]

Statement of the year in 2014 : "NZX chief executive Tim Bennett told the audience gathered at the firm's Grafton head office for yesterday's listing ceremony that Orion's IPO was probably the most significant event in New Zealand's capital markets this year".it probably was. Signalled very large privately (predominately by 1 person) held company finally looking to the markets for expansion capital. Haven't had that in ages nd hopefully we see more (though at a better price with better short and longer term prospects). He didn't say it would be a good investment. That isn't his job.

[Balance]

it probably was. Signalled very large privately (predominately by 1 person) held company finally looking to the markets for expansion capital. Haven't had that in ages nd hopefully we see more (though at a better price with better short and longer term prospects). He didn't say it would be a good investment. That isn't his job.

Very true - you can float a rusty bucket, a smelly decomposing Barramundi or a slippery poisonous snake if you like. What does the NZX care? Mr Bennett in his comments below forgot to add that anything goes as far as the NZX and the NXT are concerned.

Orion should have had to issue forecasts to be listed - that's my take on the pathetic state of the NZX whose sole focus is making money.

NZX Chief Executive Officer Tim Bennett says the addition of Orion Health to the NZX Main Board is a further demonstration of the opportunities for growing companies to gain the support of New Zealand investors.

"The listing of Orion Health today demonstrates the effectiveness of the New Zealand capital markets. Since it was formed, Orion Health has had access to private equity and now the public markets which has provided it the capital to rapidly grow the business at each stage of its development."

[BlackPeter]

Sub-$5 today. You heard it here first ;)

Well - not quite yet, but given the information they gave about the next quarter, I am rather confident they will get there rather sooner than later while they keep burning their cash.

Might be sensible if they are asking their share holders for more money while the SP is still on lofty heights (following XRO and PEB); Who knows, where the SP will go if they first burn up all their precious cash?

[Frostwind]

Is this stock available to be shorted?

[Balance]

Is this stock available to be shorted?

Please find out and let us know.

A sure bet if ever there was one.

[BFG]

Sub-$5 today. You heard it here first ;)

Off by a day. Ah well, can't be right ALL the time :)

[GoldenStag]

So, yesterday was the dead cat bouncing. Now, how long is the full slide?

[BFG]

So, yesterday was the dead cat bouncing. Now, how long is the full slide?

How long is a piece of string? It could go on for days (WHS had 9 straight days of losses) or just today.

Watch the charts carefully for oversold situation with high volume hammer as the decider for a short-term reversal. Someone will eventually find value in this stock at SOME price!

[Balance]

Please find out and let us know.

A sure bet if ever there was one.

Any luck, Frostwind?

[IAK]

Ouch. Lesson learnt - don't believe the hype. lol

[BFG]

Ouch. Lesson learnt - don't believe the hype. lol

Unless the market is super bullish a la end of 2013/beginning 2014. You could have built any castle in the air you liked as long as it involved "growth" and, preferably "in roads into the USA".

The market has wised up now ;)

[Sideshow Bob]

Stumbled across this:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2015/02/03/patient-safety-electronic-health-records-hhs/22765699/

Headlines from the paper version:

"Digital Medicine fraught with risk says Doctors"

"Doctors are warned by the federal government that they'll soon be penalized for not using electronic medical records, prompting a backlash from those who say the technology is fraught with problems".

"The govt has been handing out $30 BILLION in incentives to help doctors install and use these digitized patient records to improve patient care".

"A group of 37 medical societies led by the American Medical Society sent a letter to Health and Human Services last month saying the certification program is headed in the wrong direction ad that today's electronic record systems are cumbersome, decrease efficiency and most importantly, can present safety problems to patients.

48.1% of doctors according to a survey have adopted some form of electronic health records.

"Physicians passionately despise their electronic health records" says Lexington physican Steve Stack. "We will use technology quickly when it works....electronic health records don't work right now"

"Govt incentives are capped at about $44,000 per doctor for systems that cost at least $100,000 and often closer to $200,000".

"There are hundreds of companies selling systems that often don't communicate with each other. Compounding the problem, there's no requirement that suppliers improve flawed technology".

"A 2013 AMA/RAND study found electronic health records (EHR) are a leading cause of physician dissatisfaction. They are being "pushed down our throats"".


"Some critics says the FDA should regulate systems the way they do for other devices".


So really for me the question is, where does Orion sit in all this. Is their product so good they are on the cusp of a huge opportunity?? Or are they one of the many peddling systems that are unpopular and unwieldy for doctors??

"Even most critics recognize electronic health records are the future".

[Frostwind]

NO luck man, wish i have a way to short it.... want to do it badly but couldn't find anything :(

[dingoNZ]

I'm a holder and happy to sit this puppy in my bottom draw for a few years and just play it out, not work selling out now IMO, I'll just stay in for the ride.

[kiora]

Yes :) & bringing forward Feb 2016 estimate :)

[Frostwind]

I would imagine all of the major brokers can short this stock for you. Mine certainly can.

Who's your broker man :)

[Frostwind]

Forsyth barr.

Thanks, will have a look at them, my ASB is hopeless.

[Harvey Specter]

Thanks, will have a look at them, my ASB is hopeless.ASB aren't hopeless. They are a discount broker and you get what you pay for.

[kiora]

Is this stock available to be shorted?

Have a go FW.Make my day :)

[Balance]

Have a go FW.Make my day :)

Thought your day already made with OHE down below IPO price?

Worse to come - stock is trading at Xero $40.00 plus type hype and most institutions do not invest more into earnings downgrade.

[BlackPeter]

Just came (in a totally unrelated research) across CERNER (http://cerner.com/). Looks like that they operate in a similar space as OHE, however much larger (MarketCap US$23B - and just bought Siemens Healthcare). I realise that they focus as well on medical hardware, but their product line "population health management" (http://cerner.com/solutions/population_health/) with their "healtheintent platform sounds on the first imression quite similar to what OHE tries to do (http://cerner.com/solutions/population_health/healthe_intent/). As well reading through their "hospital and health systems" feels a bit like deja vu (after having read the OHE prospectus some time ago).

A bit surprised that I couldn't find so far any reference to Cerner in this thread.

Question (assuming some shareholders researched this massive competing organisation before investing into OHE): What competitive advantages have OHE compared to CERN? What are the risks for OHE? Are these risks already priced into the current SP?

[sb9]

More weakness today, followed by very thin bidders ...:scared:

[Frostwind]

looks like more cheaper stocks on the way available for anyone that wants to get into this thing.

[theace]

Wonder what's a good entry point?


looks like more cheaper stocks on the way available for anyone that wants to get into this thing.

[GoldenStag]

Wonder what's a good entry point?

My pre-IPO calculations comparing it to GTK pegged it at about $600m capitalisation, so that would be a 374c price.

I'd also pay a premium over this calculation for Orion. But there is the downside of the latest announcements, and the 5% upside of any forex moves since IPO (as OHE would have a large amount of contracts in USD)

Overall, sub-$4 is my estimate, say $3.80, though I doubt the share price would ever fall this far.

[Frostwind]

My pre-IPO calculations comparing it to GTK pegged it at about $600m capitalisation, so that would be a 374c price.

I'd also pay a premium over this calculation for Orion. But there is the downside of the latest announcements, and the 5% upside of any forex moves since IPO (as OHE would have a large amount of contracts in USD)

Overall, sub-$4 is my estimate, say $3.80, though I doubt the share price would ever fall this far.

Agree totally, mid $3s should be a buy, if they can once again generate positive cashflow

[dingoNZ]

They will be in a cash burn phase for atleast another year IMO, we should see reasonable growth/product improvements within this period, in 18 months I expect we will see significant growth and begin to see the cash burn reduce and after this point beginning to turn cash positive. I have been collecting since the IPO and I know its overpriced at the moment (and has been) but I'm a firm believer in their product and story. Happy to hold (at a lost currently) and continue to collect. The potential market share is massive and from talking to health professionals they firmly believe a tool such as what Orion offer would be an absolute asset if implemented. My2c, DYOR.

[BlackPeter]

Just came (in a totally unrelated research) across CERNER (http://cerner.com/). Looks like that they operate in a similar space as OHE, however much larger (MarketCap US$23B - and just bought Siemens Healthcare). I realise that they focus as well on medical hardware, but their product line "population health management" (http://cerner.com/solutions/population_health/) with their "healtheintent platform sounds on the first imression quite similar to what OHE tries to do (http://cerner.com/solutions/population_health/healthe_intent/). As well reading through their "hospital and health systems" feels a bit like deja vu (after having read the OHE prospectus some time ago).

A bit surprised that I couldn't find so far any reference to Cerner in this thread.

Question (assuming some shareholders researched this massive competing organisation before investing into OHE): What competitive advantages have OHE compared to CERN? What are the risks for OHE? Are these risks already priced into the current SP?

Really nobody who wants to take this? Come on guys, some of the supporters around here must have done some research before buying?

Discl: don't hold.

[IAK]

Top 4 HIE vendors for 2015....Orion Health

http://www.healthcareitnews.com/news/top-4-hie-vendors-2015

[kiora]

http://www.jsonline.com/business/pressrelease/national-press-releases/health-information-exchanges-vendors-prove-tech-fitness-but-only-a-fraction-of-initiatives-will-cross-siloes-to-achieve-real-interoperability-by-2017-reveals-black-book-292166101.html
This is an $50 b industry in the USA alone ,of course Orion Health has competitors.
How is OHE positioned ?
Orion Health: Government Payer and Commercial Insurer Centric HIEs
Lets see what 2015 brings.OHE is certainly investing heavily for its future and we will see after the first quarter how the on-going planned transition from perpetual licences to subscription contracts pans out

[Bilbo]

Agree totally, mid $3s should be a buy, if they can once again generate positive cashflow

Will not buy until after the fall out from the end of the lock-up period for founder shares. Just take a look at what happened to SLI price once founders and employees started selling down after their lock-up ended.

[theace]

Will not buy until after the fall out from the end of the lock-up period for founder shares. Just take a look at what happened to SLI price once founders and employees started selling down after their lock-up ended.

When does the lock up period end?

[Bilbo]

When does the lock up period end?

In most cases it is "Escrowed Shares to be retained until the firstBusiness Day following Orion Health’spreliminary announcement of its financialresults for the six months to 30 September2015", however looks like Pioneer are only locked in for 3 months post listing, which would be 26th Feb (if my dates are correct). See page 165 of https://www.orionhealth.com/investors/reports-and-presentations/downloads/orionhealth_prospectus.pdf?d=20141127

[kiora]

NO luck man, wish i have a way to short it.... want to do it badly but couldn't find anything :(

How did you get on FW ?

[IAK]

Good rally this week, hopefully it will continue.

[kiora]

Really nobody who wants to take this? Come on guys, some of the supporters around here must have done some research before buying?

Discl: don't hold.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/66615654/orion-hopes-glowing-report-will-placate--market
http://www.chilmarkresearch.com/2015/01/12/orion-health-aspires-to-paas/
Orion Health development spend developing a larger Moat compared to competitors ?

[gbogo]

FNZ started coverage with $5.89 target and NEUTRAL rating.

[BlackPeter]

Actually - for stuff standards a quite well researched article, thanks for posting.

And just to re-iterate ... nobody is saying OHE is a bad company - they are doing interesting stuff and do have already some stand in the market.

I am just concerned that all the hype around the IPO pushed the price in the risk / reward spectrum from the middle of the bell curve to the absolute maximum (i.e. leaving investors with all the risk, but little reward potential).

Looking at the article - I note that McCrae used interesting words when talking about the rumours related to another capital raising:


The flow of red ink has triggered concerns among punters on stock market forum Sharetrader that Orion might have to raise more capital through a rights issue as early as the end of this year. McCrae says that is not in the company's plans.

He didn't say there is no need for another capital raising, he just said, that it is not (yet?) in the company's plan. As we all know, plans can change;)

Interesting as well that they mentioned in the article Orions growth pains, already noticed by customers. Well - this is quite normal for a company of this size in a fast growing curve. If you hire too many new staff, than you need very good process, which you typically don't (yet) have in a company of this size. Give them a couple of years and a really good quality manager, than they might be fine, but just assuming they will push through this barrier without any impact on their exponential growth curve feels naive.

Looking at the SP - over this year two ESCROW agreements will run out - and the current holders paid ways less than the current SP. I think there is a good chance that some of them might want to cash in on their gains (and tear the SP down).

So yes - good company ... and personally do I think that it is possible to buy the shares in 9 to 12 months time at a much more realistic price than today. However - I obviously could be wrong - and maybe they are at that stage chasing the XRO curve (not sure, whether up or down)?

Discl: not holding (obviously)

[kiora]

NZX 50
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1503/S00397/orion-health-to-join-nzx-50-after-latest-review-nzog-out.htm?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Thursday+12 +March+2015

[BlackPeter]

NZX 50
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1503/S00397/orion-health-to-join-nzx-50-after-latest-review-nzog-out.htm?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Thursday+12 +March+2015

So lets hope they fare better than PEB did after being admitted to the NZX50 club ...

[IAK]

Over 2m shares traded today (20 March), what's up?

[BlackPeter]

Over 2m shares traded today (20 March), what's up?

I guess index funds required to buy due to OHE moving into the NZX50. Check Kiora's link 3 posts up ...

[theace]

Steady decline .... wonder what is a good entry point?

Was the IPO price $5.70?

[dingoNZ]

Steady decline .... wonder what is a good entry point?

Was the IPO price $5.70?


I'm holding, and topping up happily. You've got to remember this is a very early stage of their growth profile, I suspect we will be down here for a while before we see any movement to the upside :)

[BlackPeter]

I'm holding, and topping up happily. You've got to remember this is a very early stage of their growth profile, I suspect we will be down here for a while before we see any movement to the upside :)

Agree with your view on the near term trend. Not sure, whether I would want to hold in this situation, but each to their strategy.

Looking at the company - they had huge cash burn last quarter, and as I heard from a normally reliable source, they significantly reduced the expected (and needed?) recruitment drive to keep the future cash burn somewhat better under control.

From memory - new releases should be out sometimes now ... and I guess we (and more importantly the customers) first need to see when they arrive and how they do before we can expect improved sales.

I still believe that this is a company with potential, but I am not sure whether I expect a significant strengthening of the SP in the first half of this year - and the second half will only be better if the new releases are a hit (what we don't know yet ...).

Discl: wait and watch ...

[Cricketfan]

I'm holding, and topping up happily. You've got to remember this is a very early stage of their growth profile, I suspect we will be down here for a while before we see any movement to the upside :)

Genuine question - if you think it'll be a while before the share price goes up, what's the reason for topping up now rather than later?

[dingoNZ]

Genuine question - if you think it'll be a while before the share price goes up, what's the reason for topping up now rather than later?


DA (dollar cost averaging) - buy purchasing over a prolonged period of time you, you reduce both exposure to the downside and upside and can get a foothold or sizable position in tranches rather than just purchasing say 10,000 in the IPO. Just my view on attaining a position.

[winner69]

Share price looking a bit sad again

At 465 getting close to all tie low again

Not much comment here ......suppose price will continue to drift until something exciting happens

[Portobello]

NO luck man, wish i have a way to short it.... want to do it badly but couldn't find anything :(


There is a big rush to get out of this one, Get out before it tanks.

[Portobello]

Will not buy until after the fall out from the end of the lock-up period for founder shares. Just take a look at what happened to SLI price once founders and employees started selling down after their lock-up ended.

It will indeed be interesting to see how Orion insiders view their prospects. Any bets?

[RTM]

http://www.ibm.com/smarterplanet/nz/en/healthcare_solutions/visions/

May be of interest to those invested or interested in investing with Orion.
Lady on National program just chatting about IBM's interest in this area.
11:20'ish....16 April

[Baa_Baa]

It will indeed be interesting to see how Orion insiders view their prospects. Any bets?

Long before the September lockup ends, OHE will report FY15 results.

The FY14 auditors report was signed off 21 July 2014, so the reporting could be a few months away, plenty of time for investors nerves to fray further. The FY14 report also focused heavily on the top line numbers, sure they were positive but it was frustrating to have to dig deep into the report before finding any reference to the company making operating, cash and eps losses, but that's OK by them apparently, because of the capital raising.

If investors or prospective investors anticipate a reversal of the FY14 -$1.7m operating loss and -$9.6m net cash outflow and -0.9c eps, then the past 6 months dismal price performance from the IPO won't bother them, it may even look like good buying now around the low of $4.5, even on declining and lame price performance indicators.

On the other hand, it could look like a huge risk and maybe a time to get the heck out, or bide time to see whether there is a turnaround and buy in when it's a solid company performing for it's shareholders.

Monthly share price chart
7283

BAA

[BlackPeter]

Based on the Dec 14 cash flow report (hey - another one should be just around the corner ...) would I not expect the financial year to end on a high note. I think it would be already good news if they manage to reduce their cash burn from Q2 (and I know, they try!).

I guess share holders can call them selves lucky if 2016 turns cashflow positive, but this will IMHO depend on how the next generation of products do (are the out yet? If not - shouldn't they already be?).

As indicated earlier - interesting company, but at this stage I wouldn't know whether a loss making software company with a huge cash burn is really worth their current $721 million market cap. Maybe half of that will do? Maybe a quarter? If I really want to invest into a loss maker with a sexy product, than why not investing into WYN - their market cap is just 212 million (though I think they are too dear as well)?

Just wondering why people don't buy instead into a software company already making a profit (GTK - $171k market cap), but this is probably too boring - isn't it?

Discl: hold GTK; watch WYN and OHE

[Baa_Baa]

Investor briefing call 28 April https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/211660.pdf you'd think that a 3/4 $Billion tech company might've figured out how to do a webinar, but no just bear with us for 10-15 minutes while the moderator takes your details and places you into the call. sigh.

[BlackPeter]

Investor briefing call 28 April https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/211660.pdf you'd think that a 3/4 $Billion tech company might've figured out how to do a webinar, but no just bear with us for 10-15 minutes while the moderator takes your details and places you into the call. sigh.

Agree - a $750M company would know how to set up a webinar - wouldn't they? Maybe just another indication that the share is ways overvalued :p.

[BlackPeter]

Quarterly update out: https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/211966.pdf

Cashburn: Actually - this quarter (just) cashflow positive. However they prepare shareholders for further "bumpiness" in this regard.

New products: released. Will be interesting to see, whether the markets like them.

Growth: Revenue up by 7.2% last year (or 22.1% annually over the last 2 years). Nothing really to crow about for a so called growth company. Saturation coming early? Particularly worrying obviously that their chosen growth market (US) didn't show any of it (they give no numbers yet, but describe the US market as "challenging") - just the other markets seem to have contributed to the (frugal) overall growth.

Still feels to me like a high risk company without (at current SP) lots of upwards potential for shareholders. However - somebody seems to like the announcement - SP slightly up in moderate trading (though far away yet from braking the down-trend ...)

[Beagle]

I maintained early on in this thread that they were growing faster while profitable. Seems to me like after the initial take-up of their product offer they have struggled to get much more penetration despite throwing a lot more money at it, so yes BP, market saturation of a sort. Yet another grossly overpriced software company (YAWN).

[kiora]

In my view
Number of shares traded very low over the last month even after this underwhelming performance update
Cashflow report OK
Turnover very underwhelming.I was working on $210 m
Maybe valid reasons but will be 3 ? months before known
Happy to hold some to see how it pans out.2 % of my portfolio now

[elZorro]

In my view
Number of shares traded very low over the last month even after this underwhelming performance update
Cashflow report OK
Turnover very underwhelming.I was working on $210 m
Maybe valid reasons but will be 3 ? months before known
Happy to hold some to see how it pans out.2 % of my portfolio now

$61mill annual loss reported yesterday.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11454862

This has not deterred the govt from offering up to $15mill in R&D funding grants over three years to the firm, and at the rate they are spending money on programming, they'll uplift all of that from taxpayers. On top of whatever they have already received from share investors.

Discl: not a holder.

[whatsup]

Big drop today and $4.00 offer !!

[whatsup]

big drop today and $4.00 offer !!

sold sold sold !!

[theace]

Was $4.50 the IPO?

[whatsup]

I think so. Ask Milford Assets ?

[winner69]

Was $4.50 the IPO?

Thought it was $5.70

[Mr T]

Wasn't it $5.70?

[sb9]

Thought it was $5.70

Yep, priced at top end of the range at that time...

[theace]

Yup, $5.70! ... from an old NBR article ... "The stock rose as high as $6.79 from its $5.70 offer price"

[winner69]

.........and peaked at $6.79

[whatsup]

.........and peaked at $6.79


YEP and from memory it was close to being A BILLION $ company !

[RGR367]

The overall consensus of this thread was corrrect all along. I'll still wait when the price gets lower than $3.30 :)



disc not holding but would be interested to get some of it in the future

[Bilbo]

The overall consensus of this thread was corrrect all along. I'll still wait when the price gets lower than $3.30 :)



disc not holding but would be interested to get some of it in the future

Agreed. I will be interested in the low $3s but will likely wait until some time after the escrow period for founders/directors etc is over. By my calcs still something close to 60% are in escrow.

[BlackPeter]

sold sold sold !!

Yep - its a funny thing ... at IPO time I thought that $4 might be a fair price for this share (and they sold it for $5.70 - I think), but now I am not anymore so sure about it.

Board was certainly very wise to make no promises at IPO time - and they stayed consistent, but for some reason it looks like the market is punishing them anyway.

While it looked like at IPO that they have the silver bullet to solve all health care admin problems, it now feels it is more another nice to have for the health care administration which has got already everything else they need. Clients just puts the need for their products on the backburner (i.e. reprioritizing). Here go the revenues, but the cash burn will stay.

Still think it is an interesting (but well overhyped) company. However - $650m market cap for a loss making company not even sure If & when they might turn around the bleeding - really?

Discl: Watching and waiting for the bottom ... if & when it comes

[sb9]

Sub $4 now...

Disc - Do not hold.

[IAK]

Unfortunately, not the only stock in the red today.


disc - hold a few.

[kiora]

Cash flow positive over the last 6 months even with ramp up in development expenses in my view a good result.
http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?T=xItfU1s-EfVx1bXa-JP66C&E=NZSE&S=OHE&N=267011
They do anticipate negative cash flow in the short to medium term as they continue to grow capability

[kiora]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/70244093/napier-men-and-company-fined-over-listeria-meat-sold-to-hospital?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Thursday+16 +July+2015

[IAK]

Link to Andrew Patterson's interview with Ian McCrae on Sunday business hour.

http://www.radiolive.co.nz/Ian-McCrae-CEO-Orion-Health/tabid/506/articleID/91574/Default.aspx

[kiora]

Critical ability IMHO
"It also cited Orion
Health's leadership in offering open Application Program Interfaces (APIs) so
its clients and third-party developers can develop their own applications to
run on the Orion Health Open Platform".
http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?T=J5OvU69e0QfEpKtzryYFwC&E=NZSE&S=OHE&N=267273

[kiora]

Is this the bottom?
$95 mil cash still to get them through
More sales & management staff.I must say surprised the increase in staff numbers was only around 100 developers.
Sales in the next 2 quarters will be interesting.

[theace]

The overall consensus of this thread was corrrect all along. I'll still wait when the price gets lower than $3.30 :)



disc not holding but would be interested to get some of it in the future

Your wish may come true!

[whatsup]

Seems as though Mr Market does not Lester Leaving !!

[whatsup]

Down again this morning, where is the bottom ? , ideas please.

[BlackPeter]

Down again this morning, where is the bottom ? , ideas please.

I guess it depends ...

OHE is a highly speculative company. They have basically no capital (NTA 21 cents per share) and intend to make losses for at least another couple of years. I would think another CR is more likely than not given their cash burn, but we will see. They never made any promises, i.e. if they just roll up their toenails in a couple of years, than investors can't complain, that the board mislead them. On the other hand - they might be at some stage highly successful, particularly if a public healthcare system survives in the States (not sure about that if I look at the recent US polls, but obviously still early days). I don't think that their current business plans allow for a failure in the US.

The time to invest might be if & when the trend changes, and personally I do not believe that this will happen prior to the next US elections. If the democrats win the next election, than it might be a good time to do a punt on OHE. Obviously - the market can do as it pleases - we might have a speculative bubble prior to that date, but in the current climate does this looks less likely.

Discl: not holding & obviously - DYOR;

[Beagle]

Many people, myself included chose to ignore this IPO investment opportunity because of the highly unusual move not to provide financial forecasts. If this highly questionable approach didn't scare people off at the start then have a look at the chart of their SP performance ever since listing ! Its basically been steadily downhill ever since. Investors sold a pup ?, you be the judge.

[h2so4]

I think the last quarterly showed an increase in sales. I'd wait for the next two quarterlies before looking at it again.

[sb9]

Many people, myself included chose to ignore this IPO investment opportunity because of the highly unusual move not to provide financial forecasts. If this highly questionable approach didn't scare people off at the start then have a look at the chart of their SP performance ever since listing ! Its basically been steadily downhill ever since. Investors sold a pup ?, you be the judge.

True, feel sorry for those who got sucked in at IPO offered at $5.70 from memory.

[whatsup]

Another big dump right on closing , down another 2% today, not good, sub $3.00 here we come !!

[whatsup]

Another big dump right on closing , down another 2% today, not good, sub $3.00 here we come !!

[IAK]

True, feel sorry for those who got sucked in at IPO offered at $5.70 from memory.
Yep, I was one of the suckers. Love the vision but couldn't handle the losses - bailed a couple of months ago.

[axe]

Yep, I was one of the suckers. Love the vision but couldn't handle the losses - bailed a couple of months ago.

Would you consider at re-entry? If so, at which price?

[RGR367]

Would you consider at re-entry? If so, at which price?
Why ask someone who has been hyped into a higher price earlier :t_down: Anything lower than that IPO price would be okay but if you had a read on the consensus of this thread, anything below $3 would be good, if I'm not mistaken. :cool:

disc: not holding yet :D

[IAK]

Why ask someone who has been hyped into a higher price earlier :t_down: Anything lower than that IPO price would be okay but if you had a read on the consensus of this thread, anything below $3 would be good, if I'm not mistaken. :cool:

disc: not holding yet :D

Exactly. Unfortunately, I wasn't a member of the forum at the time of the IPO (although in saying that I have done reasonably well out of the SOE gentailers esp. Meridian:)). My investments in Orion, Wynyard and Diligent were more philanthropic than anything else - hey isn't this what NZ inc needs - high value industries? However, given the uncertain global economic/volatile conditions I decided to 'weed out' my growth companies as their SP's were most likely to come under sustained pressure, which they have. The only companies I'm holding at the moment are good dividend payers with the rest of my loot in the bank.

[kiora]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/73229323/ehealth-records-in-governments-sights-again-after-2014-target-missed
About B-----Y time
In my experience Health records and recording at Waikato Hospital is a disgrace !!!
I would be totally embarrassed if I worked there in management!

[Marilyn Munroe]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/73229323/ehealth-records-in-governments-sights-again-after-2014-target-missed
About B-----Y time
In my experience Health records and recording at Waikato Hospital is a disgrace !!!
I would be totally embarrassed if I worked there in management!

Do you know your NHI(National Health Index Number)?

Using this this number makes your interaction with the medical industrial complex so much easier. For example your GP can bring your lab results up on screen instantly.

Top tip: Keep your NHI number in the contacts list on your mobile phone. When you are picked up dazed and bleeding by the ambulance or have to dash to ER because of some emergency knowing your NHI number helps the system treat you with full information awareness of your medical history.


Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[Snow Leopard]

{posted 05-Jul-2014} I found this article from today's NZHerald (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11287963) on Orion interesting, primarily because I worked on this sort of stuff (a digitized patient medical history) 20 years ago.

The main issue then was the [lack of] electronic communication between medical providers (GP, specialists, hospitals, pharmacies) so it used a smart-card which the patient carried round with them (for immediacy) with interesting methods of distributing and archiving patient data.
It worked surprisingly well on a fairly wide scale field test, but got canned soon after for reasons that were nothing to do with the project itself.

So I am surprised and yet not surprised that it is still an issue.

I look forward to any IPO documentation with interest.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger


http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/73229323/ehealth-records-in-governments-sights-again-after-2014-target-missed
About B-----Y time
In my experience Health records and recording at Waikato Hospital is a disgrace !!!
I would be totally embarrassed if I worked there in management!

Enough to make a Tiger weep!

Best Wishes
A Tearful (& Soggy) Paper Tiger

[Tomtom]

My investments in Orion, Wynyard and Diligent were more philanthropic than anything else... Well as I wrote while trying to understand the company from an investors perspective around the time of the IPO:

Obviously I'm terribly old fashion in expecting goals and forecasts...all that stuff that holds companies to account and sets expectations. Similarly in expecting to earn a return on my investments. Clearly I'm not clever enough to invest in this new paradigm.

[kiora]

Do you know your NHI(National Health Index Number)?

Using this this number makes your interaction with the medical industrial complex so much easier. For example your GP can bring your lab results up on screen instantly.

Top tip: Keep your NHI number in the contacts list on your mobile phone. When you are picked up dazed and bleeding by the ambulance or have to dash to ER because of some emergency knowing your NHI number helps the system treat you with full information awareness of your medical history.


Boop boop de do
Marilyn

Maybe the NHI number works well for clinical GP but why do they still record data & information on bits of paper in the Waikato Hospital? and by first hand experience,oblivious to prior treatments and procedures that a patient has undergone?

[kiora]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/73280398/government-attempting-to-rewrite-history-over-electronic-health-records-says-labour
There doesn't appear to be any cohesive policy between the District Health Boards
A shambles.The government needs to step up for this or its going to be a fiasco.Too much money wasted on more reports IMHO

[kiora]

Genomics.The hot new field at a place near you
https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/news/gene-testing-verges-huge-breakthrough-140000831.html

[Snow Leopard]

Genomics.The hot new field at a place near you
https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/news/gene-testing-verges-huge-breakthrough-140000831.html

"I predict children are going to be genetically tested starting at birth"

You watched the Movie Gattaca (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0119177/)?

Best Wishes
Paper tiger

[kiora]

Strengthening the team
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1511/S00532/orion-health-expands-management-team-due-to-global-growth.htm?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Tuesday+17+ November+2015

[guiness]

27mil loss 1st 6 months compared to 15mil last year, revenue increase claimed but had the exchange rate remained the same, revenue is down 13mil, cash burn continues of 18 mil, President of North America targeted as scapegoat and terminated....not trending well.....and OH still hanging on to 'in line with expectations'

[kiora]

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?T=mTg_D0eoPczerP7LAvxUhC&E=NZSE&S=OHE&N=274843

[BlackPeter]

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?T=mTg_D0eoPczerP7LAvxUhC&E=NZSE&S=OHE&N=274843

Does not look like markets are impressed - and why should they? Releasing a new software is easy ... the difficult task is to convince clients to take the plunge (and something like that is a huge commitment and risk for any client), integrate the software with the clients systems and to help them to generate value. I don't know - maybe Orion Health has the capacity, capability and stamina to change the world of health - they certainly have my best wishes!

However - so far however there seems to be insufficient evidence to convince the markets (and - while I don't always understand market reactions ... I can see in this case why).

Some minor support for the share seems to be now at $2.95, but I am not sure, whether this is already the end of the slippery slope ...

Discl: not holding (who would have guessed;));

[RGR367]

We were thinking then at getting into it at $3.20 but looks like we can only be now tempted to buy some at $2.50 or lower.
Gut feel then wins.

Discl: not yet a holder too ;)

[kiora]

Game changing
https://nzx.com/files/attachments/227050.pdf

[kiora]

Game changing
https://nzx.com/files/attachments/227050.pdf

[guiness]

Game changing???? Announcing new products doesn't stop the bleeding of losses and cash burn, quite the opposite. North America revenue was the BIG hype with very poor performance. If not for the exchange rate factor, revenue declined.

[Sideshow Bob]

Sounds promising.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/76216662/orion-health-inks-major-french-deals

[BlackPeter]

Sounds promising.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/76216662/orion-health-inks-major-french-deals

Well, I guess it is good they have something to announce. On the other hand - they called it in the radio this morning a "trial" and the article talks about a 15 month contract - i.e. they still need to provide evidence that they can put a solution together which works for this customer ... and which works in a French speaking environment.

Succeeding in France is not easy for any service provider (what Orian basically is) unless you have enough people speaking their language. Does Orion have all these (better native) French speaking IT specialists on standby? Or do they first need to ramp up their workforce and integrate these people into their company while the clock (remember 15 month contract) is ticking?

I wish them well, but changing course from an US target market to France is more than replacing two words in the code and recompiling ...

[kiora]

Well, I guess it is good they have something to announce. On the other hand - they called it in the radio this morning a "trial" and the article talks about a 15 month contract - i.e. they still need to provide evidence that they can put a solution together which works for this customer ... and which works in a French speaking environment.

Succeeding in France is not easy for any service provider (what Orian basically is) unless you have enough people speaking their language. Does Orion have all these (better native) French speaking IT specialists on standby? Or do they first need to ramp up their workforce and integrate these people into their company while the clock (remember 15 month contract) is ticking?

I wish them well, but changing course from an US target market to France is more than replacing two words in the code and recompiling ...

Orion Health started a trial in Spain in June last year.Success maybe more reliant on functionality than language?
https://orionhealth.com/case-study/aragon-spain-integrating-healthcare-data-region-wide/

[BlackPeter]

Orion Health started a trial in Spain in June last year.Success maybe more reliant on functionality than language?
https://orionhealth.com/case-study/aragon-spain-integrating-healthcare-data-region-wide/

Integrating big data is more than selling a SW package and translating the user manual via Google. Many of Orion's technical staff will need to work quite close with their counterparts in France and be able to communicate with them well in a language both of them do understand.

I am not saying that it is impossible ... just more difficult for companies coming out of a monolingual environment like NZ (apologies to all Maori speakers on this forum, but this language is unfortunately in an international context not that useful). France had for many years the desire to keep their language free of any English words (and I think they still do) ... and while some of them happen to learn English at school, they don't use it regularly. Many of them speak no better English, than many New Zealanders speak French.

Quite different attitude to foreign languages in Spain or e.g. Latin America.

This just means - if this is a trial ... and if there are competitors with better language skills around (e.g. European competitors), than I know on who's success I would bet.

Anyway ... just pointing to another risk, does not have to eventuate ... go Orion!

[Zaphod]

Adding to the points above, work methodologies, processes, policies etc. are all influenced by cultural factors. To build a successful product you must take these aspects into account, which is a very difficult task for a foreign company whose developers are not immersed in the local culture.

[Onion]

Can tech save the National Health Service?

Guardian Tech Weekly discuss challenges to the NHS technology programme. Some interesting observations about the same arena that Orion inhabit.

http://www.theguardian.com/technology/audio/2016/jan/21/can-tech-save-the-national-health-service-tech-weekly-podcast

[Arbitrage]

There is something about a so called growth stock like Orion. They are running at a loss with their existing client base, while signing up more clients. Does this mean that more clients mean a greater loss? This doesn't just apply to this company. What are investors in these stocks waiting for? A sudden new product that makes a lot of money? Perhaps these companies should have less clients and actually try and make money. I am interested to hear a good reason (apart from philanthropy) for investing in these stocks. No dividends and a falling share price. But I guess one never knows what is around the corner....

[BlackPeter]

There is something about a so called growth stock like Orion. They are running at a loss with their existing client base, while signing up more clients. Does this mean that more clients mean a greater loss? This doesn't just apply to this company. What are investors in these stocks waiting for? A sudden new product that makes a lot of money? Perhaps these companies should have less clients and actually try and make money. I am interested to hear a good reason (apart from philanthropy) for investing in these stocks. No dividends and a falling share price. But I guess one never knows what is around the corner....

I guess its called speculation. Sometimes it works out and the stocks turn (after years) into a big shining cash cow, and often it does not. Most of them can make you money if you get the timing right (by luck or by skill).

Just close your eyes and dream: Orion Healthcare might turn into the next Amazon, Facebook, TradeMe or Google and (at least some of) their shareholders will be rich.

Of course - statistically are less than 5% of these speculative stocks ultimately successful, but low probabilities don't stop punters from buying Lotto tickets either. If you have a good hand (or luck), than this might be the way to become rich fast. Only problem - the odds are against you.

[Onion]

Just close your eyes and dream: Orion Healthcare might turn into the next Amazon, Facebook, TradeMe or Google and (at least some of) their shareholders will be rich.

I think the comparison with Amazon, Facebook and Google is incorrect.

Orion will never scale to the extent of those companies. They have millions of individual customers each paying a little. Much of the "paying" comes in advertising revenue (the customer "pays" by giving a little of their screen real estate to advertising).

I do not foresee a future where individuals become customers of Orion. Orion's customers will be large health organisations paying serious money for Orion's software. E.g. if the French trials go well then perhaps Orion's software will be adopted widely across French public health organisations, in which case those organisations will need to pay good money to Orion.

As an analogy, compare Fraser Engineering (from Lower Hutt) with Toyota.

Fraser make fire appliances, in low volume but customised for each client. Fraser will take advantage of their in-house knowledge to be able to customise appliances while still using some standard components, chassis, pumps, etc. A fire appliance from Fraser will cost more than a standard truck (you get more) but probably less that it would cost for me to build one up myself from scratch.

On the other hand, Toyota make millions of vehicles -- but my Corolla model X12 will be the same as your Corolla X12 apart from cosmetic differences -- I cannot phone Toyota and request a Corolla that is 250mm longer and 100mm wider to fit my long legs and large ears.

Orion's customers will expect a solution customised for their specific needs. That will prevent Orion from ever becoming a Facebook or Google.

I am not saying that Orion cannot succeed or grow, just pointing out that if you are waiting for Orion to take off and suddenly acquire thousands of customers then don't hold your breath, they are a different type of company.

Footnote:
The same can probably be said of Wynyard -- each customer will need to customise the software to fit a localised need.

Xero on the other hand, have potential to scale. Once configured for a local environment (think local tax rules), each new customer can be acquired at very low incremental cost.

[BlackPeter]

I think the comparison with Amazon, Facebook and Google is incorrect.



LOL - I didn't realise that you require a "correctness check" already for dreams ;). What happened to the freedom of the thought?

But seriously - I never claimed that these companies are identical with OHE ... other than by all of them funding growth quite aggressively and sacrificing initial earnings to support their stellar growth.

If you want to compare them with a successful company having a similar product and client structure, than maybe SAP would be a good example.
http://www.sap.com/corporate-en/about/our-company/history/index.html
They are huge (I think they hold more than 50% of the world market for ERP systems), their SW product requires serious customisation for every individual customer ... but than - I am not sure, whether they went initially through a long patch of loss bearing years (and somehow I doubt that ...).

[Onion]

Just close your eyes and dream

I didn't want to spoil your day dreams BP :)


If you want to compare them with a successful company having a similar product and client structure, than maybe SAP would be a good example.

I think the comparison with SAP is a good one. No organisation takes on a SAP implementation without dipping deeply into the cash box and with the knowledge that they have a big project on their hands.

If Orion can make to $US97B market capitalisation then your dreams will have come true.

[Marilyn Munroe]

Health expenditures are escalating in the developed world. In the US the high cost of health care is causing individuals and the economy as a whole to buckle at the knees.

I am sure all of us who have interacted with the health system have encountered examples of inefficiencies and unnecessary duplication. Eliminating this with software which keeps track of what is going on would save bucket loads of cash.

So if Orion produces software which ticks this box they are on a winner. Recent experience shows that this is not easy to do(1), Orion may not succeed.

One way Orion share holders may skip happily to the bank is if they get brought out by the big name ERP vendors and integrators like SAP Accenture or Oracle.

Be a shame if Larry Ellison of Oracle can not buy another complete Hawaiian island because he needs the cash to buy out Orion shareholders.


Boop boop de do
Marilyn

(1) http://www.computerweekly.com/opinion/Six-reasons-why-the-NHS-National-Programme-for-IT-failed

[BlackPeter]

I didn't want to spoil your day dreams BP :)



I think the comparison with SAP is a good one. No organisation takes on a SAP implementation without dipping deeply into the cash box and with the knowledge that they have a big project on their hands.

If Orion can make to $US97B market capitalisation then your dreams will have come true.

All good.

Just to clarify - I do not hold OHE - and never have ... to speculative for me. Imagine as well that holding them so far would be more comparable to a nightmare - having to look at the trend chart and knowing it is your money ...;)!

[axe]

OHE has the potential to become a world leader in the global healthcare industry. Nations around the world spend more and more $$$$$ on health care each year they want to get the best value to money. OHE has potentially the best software platform in the world. Massive sector tailwinds. Just take a close look at FPH.

DISC: no not hold OHE.

OHE is in a down trend. It is now at a 50% discount to the IPO price and the IPO was oversubscribed too.

[Bilbo]

SP has just dipped below $3, a point where I have previously said I would consider investing. I have since reconsidered and will not be investing due to a number of reasons, one of which is the reviews on Glassdoor. I saw Sam Morgan recently tweet the following "Glassdoor reviews should be mandatory reading for investors and directors. They should just add the latest reviews to the board pack."

For anyone interested, look at https://www.glassdoor.com/Reviews/Orion-Health-Reviews-E104303.htm

DYOR

[BlackPeter]

SP has just dipped below $3, a point where I have previously said I would consider investing. I have since reconsidered and will not be investing due to a number of reasons, one of which is the reviews on Glassdoor. I saw Sam Morgan recently tweet the following "Glassdoor reviews should be mandatory reading for investors and directors. They should just add the latest reviews to the board pack."

For anyone interested, look at https://www.glassdoor.com/Reviews/Orion-Health-Reviews-E104303.htm

DYOR

great source of information ... and yes, the OHE glassdoor reviews are plenty and clearly a mixed bag - even discounting the remark of one reviewer that OHE HR is encouraging staff to write positive glassdoor reviews.

Based on browsing a handful of pages with these reviews - it feels like a company which started in somebody's garage and than grew fast without adapting its processes, leadership methods and means of internal communication. I do know people working there ... and not everything seems to be bad (from their point of view), but (lack of consistent) processes and (lack of company-wide) information sharing appear to be an issue.

Not an unusual problem for any "growth-" company to have, but one of these things which can stop further growth ... and, if not addressed, even slowly kill an organisation.

Anyway - back to investment decisions. If we look at the SP trend - there would be anyway no reason to buy in now, wouldn't it? ... and given the current market volatility would I assume that the so called growth companies (like OHE and others) will stay down for some time to come.

Time to keep the powder dry ...

[guiness]

Free falling.....down to 2.70........

[NZSilver]

Buy GLH.asx instead, much better outlook than this investor cash burning machine!

[Frostwind]

Correct me if I'm wrong and I welcome debate. Personally, I feel this company has the hallmark of a falling company, and is therefore a perfect short candidate:

- full of hope and potential, with not much substances to go with it...
- non-stop insider selling
- fast cash-burning company, mass new hiring without much revenue to go with it
- revenue growth is slowing down heaps, even when FX rate is hugely in their favour, probably will reverse into negative soon
- no guidance from management? Are they that slack or lack confidence that much?
- iPhone 6 effect? Of course, for anyone following this company, it's not surprising to see it promptly followed that up by announcing disappointing earnings.
- lack of directions on spending, US market is challenging? If they cant milk profit from the fattest industry on earth (US Healthcare), what are their odds in other places where Healthcare doesn't have an oversized weighting in the economy?
- seems to be all over the place with their announcement, Spain? France? I mean.... are they that desperate to get into ANY market? Why not some English speaking ones?
- trading near 52wk low and is not particpating in rallies, while at the same time very sensitive to bad news, technical sign of lower lows ahead

As such, even at $2.79 appears too high, and more dilution will need to come to replenish the company coffer, rinse and repeat and it is on track to trade below 2 in the not too distance future, and probably below 1 further out. Especially now that the sentiment has turned against risk assets on a global scale. This stock reminds me of Rakon, Zynga, Fitbit, Groupon and the conditions are there for a "LinkedIn" moment if they announce a very bad earning on a day where the market is in a bad mood!

Good luck everyone and I hope can save you guys some money!

[guiness]

You are SPOT on with your assessment......CEO needs to be replaced.....but notice that he kept 51% after IPO....not able to sell and support what they have sold and he's obsessed and focused on investing in new product just announcing human genome solution that is decade or further out to market....US operations in disarray with decreasing revenue....

[Balance]

Correct me if I'm wrong and I welcome debate. Personally, I feel this company has the hallmark of a falling company, and is therefore a perfect short candidate:

- full of hope and potential, with not much substances to go with it...
- non-stop insider selling
- fast cash-burning company, mass new hiring without much revenue to go with it
- revenue growth is slowing down heaps, even when FX rate is hugely in their favour, probably will reverse into negative soon
- no guidance from management? Are they that slack or lack confidence that much?
- iPhone 6 effect? Of course, for anyone following this company, it's not surprising to see it promptly followed that up by announcing disappointing earnings.
- lack of directions on spending, US market is challenging? If they cant milk profit from the fattest industry on earth (US Healthcare), what are their odds in other places where Healthcare doesn't have an oversized weighting in the economy?
- seems to be all over the place with their announcement, Spain? France? I mean.... are they that desperate to get into ANY market? Why not some English speaking ones?
- trading near 52wk low and is not particpating in rallies, while at the same time very sensitive to bad news, technical sign of lower lows ahead

As such, even at $2.79 appears too high, and more dilution will need to come to replenish the company coffer, rinse and repeat and it is on track to trade below 2 in the not too distance future, and probably below 1 further out. Especially now that the sentiment has turned against risk assets on a global scale. This stock reminds me of Rakon, Zynga, Fitbit, Groupon and the conditions are there for a "LinkedIn" moment if they announce a very bad earning on a day where the market is in a bad mood!

Good luck everyone and I hope can save you guys some money!

Agree with you 100%.

I wrote this in Oct 2014 about the IPO and has seen nothing to change my mind:


Spoke with an investment banker who has dealt with Orion Health before. Arrogant and unrealistic are his comments.

Amen.

[Marilyn Munroe]

Is this significant?

The market seems to think so but on low volume

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/230829.pdf

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[kiora]

Is this significant?

The market seems to think so but on low volume

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/230829.pdf

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

Takeover within 1 yr if share price stays depressed IMHO

[Newman]

Is this significant?

The market seems to think so but on low volume

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/230829.pdf

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

Did Orion indicate to find a partner before? Is this a change in direction because its original approach has not worked? Would cash burning accelerates and thus ask for new capital in near future? An announcement without financial figures does not mean much to me. Desperate for something?

[gbogo]

Excerpt from local research analyst view on the Cognizant deal: "As a platform as a service contract OHE will receive a fee per member Cognizant puts on the platform and it is usual for these agreements to have minimum amounts. As such we envisage it is quite possible this agreement could deliver US$20m to US$30m of revenue to OHE within a few years and it could start making a contribution in the second half of 2016. Realistically this could be bigger than CalINDEX longer term."

Sentiment has been overwhelmingly negative on this board. Market action on Friday suggests we might have found the bottom.

[kiora]

Precision Medicine, Amadeus compliant : HIPAA compliance, cyber security, advanced authentication of users, and cloud storage are taken care
https://orionhealth.com/us/solutions/application-developers/
https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/news/hospital-cyberattack-highlights-health-care-152856089.html
https://powermore.dell.com/technology/securing-a-health-care-platform-from-the-start/

[TFA]

This company seems to be finally coming into favour some significant contract announcements in the last month. The share price has just crossed the 180 day moving average

[IAK]

Orion seems to finally be getting some momentum "Largest Queensland health service signs with Orion Health"....https://www.nzx.com/companies/OHE/announcements/280401

[kiora]

Orion seems to finally be getting some momentum "Largest Queensland health service signs with Orion Health"....https://www.nzx.com/companies/OHE/announcements/280401

Yep
Over 200 d MA.Non NZ investors?

[axe]

Yep
Over 200 d MA.Non NZ investors?

looks like key resistance will come up round $4 if it makes it there

[Louloubell]

Up and up ........ and up
I got into this only a short time ago and am enjoying the ride.

[golden city]

looking good.., all the way back to 5 dollar my target...,

[BC_Doc]

One hell of a shift in sentiment for OHE in the last few months.... surprising what a few contract announcements can do. Up nearly 5 percent on this mornings announcement.

[couta1]

One hell of a shift in sentiment for OHE in the last few months.... surprising what a few contract announcements can do. Up nearly 5 percent on this mornings announcement. Sounds very much like another Wynyard, lots of contract signups and announcements,but at the end of the day will they deliver on the bottom line?

[BC_Doc]

Sounds very much like another Wynyard, lots of contract signups and announcements,but at the end of the day will they deliver on the bottom line?

As a user of Orion's software in the healthcare system, I believe the potential is there albeit some improvements needing to be made. I guess the high switching cost could be a supportive factor for their bottom line once their software is employed.

[gbogo]

Sounds very much like another Wynyard, lots of contract signups and announcements,but at the end of the day will they deliver on the bottom line?

I've owned shares in both and while they are both active in potentially very large markets, I think they are quite different. I sold all my WYN last month, having given up on their management team's ability to execute (and averaged down, which is a basic rule of mine that I should not have broken!) I bought OHE in the IPO, sold out at a small loss and bought back in a few months ago - didn't pick the bottom but not too far off it.

I think OHE management have shown they can build a profitable and successful traditional software license business. Now they are transitioning to PaaS and have invested heavily to initiate that. They are now consistently signing up customers in different jurisdictions. It looks to me like they know how to execute. While it seems to have stretched too far too quickly, I think any pullbacks will be well-supported by institutions (and I will also be on the bid in a small way).

Technicals are also very supportive of the idea that a bottom has been found. Confirmation will be if / when dips arise.

[babymonster]

The profit might come quicker then most ppl think. Heard on the radio the ceo is talking about turning to profit soon.

[whatsup]

The profit might come quicker then most ppl think. Heard on the radio the ceo is talking about turning to profit soon.

Yeh that's what PEB said years ago !

[gbogo]

OHE continues to rise on grater tan average volume, attracting minimal comment. Suggests to me that the institutions are buying. Perhaps we will see another positive announcement soon that will drive further gains. Disc: bought in the IPO, sold soon after at a loss, bought back in on the dip below $3 and still buying.

[Louloubell]

Bought inb at $3 not that long ago and topped up at $4.20 It continues to be an amazing ride! :t_up:

[golden city]

already reach my target price of 5 dollar soon

[Louloubell]

At first glance today's result seems encouraging and confirming.:t_up:

[kiora]

https://nzx.com/companies/OHE/announcements/282801
Didn't quite hit my forecasts.Due to change to SAAS model?Increase 17/more in 2018
In my view need more runs on the board in USA where they appear to have put a lot of effort in.Now decreasing staff numbers to improve profitability
Europe looking good 59% revenue growth,increasing recurring revenue
Where are they on uptake in NZ & Australasia?When I have asked Health Professionals here about Orion Health they seem to never have heard of it???
Positive 30%TO into R & D.Developing large MOAT?
Revenue guidance 20% revenue growth:1200 staff,modest growth next year,automation increases revenue compared to staff numbers.
Fx based on constant currency.
Recent contract with Cognizent new business significant customer.Start new revenue late 17,full revenue 2018.
North America: SAAS: Revenue growth
AMEA: Perpetual Licence,Future is subscription model
Geographically diverse
R & D development precision medicine increasing spend,research in Auckland,adding machine learning to existing products to make sense of increase in data.

[Cheebz]

The result was positive yet the shareprice seems to be going down.. not understanding whats going on? is there something I am missing? Is there something other shareholders know that I cant see?

[kiora]

The result was positive yet the shareprice seems to be going down.. not understanding whats going on? is there something I am missing? Is there something other shareholders know that I cant see?

You missed the increase in share price from $2:50 to $4:60 in the last 3 months.It is NORMAL that a share price doesn't straight line upwards.The rise was in anticipation of good result and the fact that OHE was under priced relative to other SAAS companies.The market may have been anticipating higher than 26 % increase in revenue as well(on a constant currency basis sales only rose 12 per cent).Now we have to wait until 2018 to see its potential.Hopefully OHE will hold true to the fact they say they have enough funds to see them through to break even.

[Cheebz]

fair enough comment.. i am just responding as in does the market or old players receive their information from special sources (softwares? Fund managers information etc) that the general or new investors are not aware of? I picked up that this company was undervalued way back.. but just not understanding the reaction to the annual result.

[kiora]

fair enough comment.. i am just responding as in does the market or old players receive their information from special sources (softwares? Fund managers information etc) that the general or new investors are not aware of? I picked up that this company was undervalued way back.. but just not understanding the reaction to the annual result.

Market reaction likely due to buy on rumor,sell on fact

[kiora]

Market reaction likely due to buy on rumor,sell on fact

Interesting trading today.Is it a trend?Smaller share trades punters taking profits?Larger parcels going to investors looking at longer term horizons?

[gbogo]

Interesting trading today.Is it a trend?Smaller share trades punters taking profits?Larger parcels going to investors looking at longer term horizons?

local broker raises target to $5.25 from $4.75 based on yesterday's results...

[Cheebz]

local broker raises target to $5.25 from $4.75 based on yesterday's results...

Personally I think company is much more solid and capability to be a huge success based on the type industry it is in. Xero has many direct competitors providing same/similar solutions.. and its an old industry with established players. However Xeros product is great.

in my opinion Orion has a great product which has taken years to develop and it is in an industry that is ready for change. Orions product is the type that can change how hospitals operate and handle information. HOWEVER there is massive risk regarding access to data and potential to cause life threatning issues etc.

Anyway time will tell.

[gbogo]

So much for an informed market that represents all possible available information. I've noticed before how seemingly obvious market-impacting news comes out yet the NZ market takes some time to react. I'm guessing that institutions can't respond instantly - perhaps some decision-making process before committing funds? And perhaps it takes them time to digest new research on results (broker analysis, NBR stories etc). Overseas, it all seems to happen in an instant and the price moves. Here, there was plenty of time and opportunity to get involved, up to 12% below today's closing price, after the results came out. Great market to trade and meanwhile, this stock, one of our largest tech companies by mkt cap, continues to attract little attention. I look forward to it hitting the headlines when the stock is back above $6 and higher. Disc: still long.

[Louloubell]

Whats up people?

[kiora]

Whats up people?

Just someone accumulating.Slightly stronger volume.Maybe USA biz looking better than last year?

[smtrader]

Just someone accumulating.Slightly stronger volume.Maybe USA biz looking better than last year?

no its window dressing for index rebalancing.

[gbogo]

no its window dressing for index rebalancing.

that's what i call dressing-up!

[kiora]

I concur that data is worth heaps,and who owns it?The patient or OHE?
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11678678

[mondograss]

"As businesses increasing digitalise their operations" perhaps the Heralds "digital journalist" should consider learning a bit of grammar. Big data means a lot to big enterprises, but not much to the majority of small businesses that make up NZ. If OHE were to go into big data it would mostly have value to the MoH for population health planning, and big Pharma to see who's using their drugs and what for, but that's about all that could really make\save money with it.

What you need to get the most out of Big Data type operations is a lot of smaller datasets to be joined up. In healthcare this would mean all the hospitals and GP's sharing data into a single digital record (which would be a big but not insurmountable technical challenge, notwithstanding the privacy concerns).

Xero would be well ahead of the curve on this by way of having all those small businesses pushing their data into the cloud. They probably have the capacity to be more accurate than treasury or even IRD when it comes to economic forecasting.

[kiora]

"As businesses increasing digitalise their operations" perhaps the Heralds "digital journalist" should consider learning a bit of grammar. Big data means a lot to big enterprises, but not much to the majority of small businesses that make up NZ. If OHE were to go into big data it would mostly have value to the MoH for population health planning, and big Pharma to see who's using their drugs and what for, but that's about all that could really make\save money with it.

What you need to get the most out of Big Data type operations is a lot of smaller datasets to be joined up. In healthcare this would mean all the hospitals and GP's sharing data into a single digital record (which would be a big but not insurmountable technical challenge, notwithstanding the privacy concerns).

Xero would be well ahead of the curve on this by way of having all those small businesses pushing their data into the cloud. They probably have the capacity to be more accurate than treasury or even IRD when it comes to economic forecasting.

1)Also a benefit to insurance Cos
2)"In healthcare this would mean all the hospitals and GP's sharing data into a single digital record" Isn't it here already/here soon?
https://orionhealth.com/global/about-us/press-releases/groundbreaking-health-sector-research-programme-announced/
https://www.managemyhealth.co.nz/

[mondograss]

True, I forgot about the health insurers (and ACC I guess).

Medtech pretty much dominates the GP\Primary practice sector.
CSC Health (formerly iSOFT\IBA Health) dominates the tertiary (hospital) sector, at least at a Patient Admin System level (they pretty much all use either WebPAS or iPM both of which are CSC products) and the Meds management area (iPharmacy, ePharmacy, MedChart).
And Lab results are usually in a Sysmex program (Eclair or Delphic).

You don't involve any of those players, you got nothing.

Orion mostly does what's called a Clinical Portal (called Concerto) which pulls data from the systems above into a single view for the clinician and lets them add notes, discharge summaries etc. It's clever and useful for the clinician to be able to see lab results alongside the reason the patient was admitted and the X-Rays etc, but most of the data you see in Concerto isn't Orions to use\sell etc. It's come from other providers. Now the DHB can team up with whomever it likes to look at that data etc, but they have to lead it. And once you want to go beyond one DHB, things get really complicated.

[RupertBear]

Big drop!:confused:

[TFA]

It's been sliding for a while and todays drop more pronounced. Looking decidely bearish


Big drop!:confused:

[gbogo]

Buy at $4.20 area. Stopped there before. Next news comes out - will be back above $5 very quickly.

[BlackPeter]

Buy at $4.20 area. Stopped there before. Next news comes out - will be back above $5 very quickly.

Just whistling into the wind - or do you have some insider information you want to share with us?

I guess the trend is currently not your friend (if you hold), though they are still above the MA200.

If the next news is good, than yes, SP is likely go up, at least for some time (its a speculative share after all), but what if the news is bad?

Didn't follow them for some time, but just discovered that analyst consensus seems to be they might be cash flow positive in 2019. Do they have enough cash to trade through to profitability? If no, than at least one of these news might not be good for the SP;).

[gbogo]

No special info though analysts still value at $5.00+. I trust the management track record of this company and expect them to deliver more contracts. I sold some above $4.80 and starting to nibble back in. Prefer to wait for indication of a base but this can move very fast once it starts so happy to improve my average.

[BlackPeter]

Buy at $4.20 area. Stopped there before. Next news comes out - will be back above $5 very quickly.

Hmm - this the news you were waiting for to bring the SP back to $5?
https://www.nzx.com/companies/OHE/announcements/288285

Must be embarrassing for the new director - announcement out and SP dropped a further 10 cents.

I am sure it is just coincidental ...

Discl: not holding and no intention to change this in the near future ...

[BlackPeter]

No special info though analysts still value at $5.00+. I trust the management track record of this company and expect them to deliver more contracts. I sold some above $4.80 and starting to nibble back in. Prefer to wait for indication of a base but this can move very fast once it starts so happy to improve my average.

Yeah, have seen that as well. Sadly, particularly in the case of speculative loss making companies like OHE there is typically very little correlation between analyst forecasts and share prices achieved. Just look at the analyst forecasts for e.g. WYN (SP 89% below forecast a year ago), IQE (SP 84% below forecast), ERD (SP more than 50% below forecast), or - during their respective hey days CRP or RAK - and check what the respective shares have been worth a year after the sometimes spectacular forecast?

Obviously - there are as well companies well exceeding analyst consensus (CVT is one of them - SP currently more than twice the analyst forecast a year ago, EBO and FPH as well well exceeded the analyst forecasts by roughly 55% each, GTK 40% above "consensus" forecast), but than, all the latter companies are neither speculative nor loss making. Maybe earnings do count after all?

[babymonster]

4.oo is a key level...

[Flintstone]

Now 3.95
Lets hear well timed good news, get holders happy before annual meeting 2 weeks.

[BlackPeter]

Buy at $4.20 area. Stopped there before. Next news comes out - will be back above $5 very quickly.


4.oo is a key level...

Just wondering - you guys still happy with your acquisitions?

Sorry, I don't want to pick on you, but this might be an excellent lesson for other investors in how difficult (or lets say impossible) it is to pick "bottoms" with any certainty. Sp currently testing the $3 - and I wouldn't dare to predict a bottom.

Obviously - there is as well the WYN example in investors mind ... and the election uncertainty is unlikely to help. A president Trump would not buy anything New Zealand made.

[Jaa]

and the election uncertainty is unlikely to help. A president Trump would not buy anything New Zealand made.

Well he buys Chinese steel... !

More importantly Trump plans to do away with Obamacare, decreasing health funding and shaking up the health system. The uncertainty alone would stall any contracts in the works for years.

[BlackPeter]

Interesting .... announcing the interim results date - and SP is dropping by another 4%. There must be some quite confident holders around.

On the other hand - President Trump became reality. He will disassemble Obamacare "before lunchtime" - and any private heath insurances with focus on their balance sheets won't need OHE products - it is much easier to rise the premiums and remove any clients with health problems.

Has OHE enough funds to get through the next 8 years (plus whatever it needs to reestablish a public health system)?

[mondograss]

The private providers will focus on maximising their balance sheets by driving operational efficiencies and looking to limit liability for any mistakes. So ePrescribing and Medications Management software (which lets you better administer drugs etc) will be a useful area to be in, rather than the integration portal stuff that OHE makes. Population Health stuff might still be of use to the larger insurers that can use it to more accurately calculate premiums.

[Baa_Baa]

OHE approaching 52-week and all-time lows, almost 100% retrace of the Feb-Jun rise. Is the company really so broken as to deserve such a SP walloping since IPO?

[BlackPeter]

OHE approaching 52-week and all-time lows, almost 100% retrace of the Feb-Jun rise. Is the company really so broken as to deserve such a SP walloping since IPO?

Yes, this is (depending on the perspective) either a very ugly (for holders) or a fascinating chart (for everybody else). I guess from a technical perspective there might be a chance for a bounce at the 250 mark, but without positive news I don't see that coming.

From a fundamental point of view - I guess they are not (yet) as screwed as WYN (they do have some revenue worthwhile mentioning - but their expenses keep being higher than their income), but in a way comparable. If they manage to close some of the big contracts in the US they are hoping for, than their share price will move into the stratosphere. However - if they don't, than they will be for a long time in loss making territory with future capital risings in view.

How likely is an "America First" Trump administration to put big bucks into a small New Zealand Software company? How likely is an administration which puts the Rich first to put money into a public health system (which would benefit from OHE software)?

You tell me, but I certainly don't expect any good news from the East Island anytime soon.

Maybe they should book the president suite in the Trump tower and fool a bit with the president elect in his hotel spa around ... this might materially improve their chances?

[Marilyn Munroe]

How likely is an "America First" Trump administration to put big bucks into a small New Zealand Software company? How likely is an administration which puts the Rich first to put money into a public health system (which would benefit from OHE software)?

You tell me, but I certainly don't expect any good news from the East Island anytime soon.



Some speculation; It is now obvious that Obamacare has been a complete disaster and that something different will be needed to replace it.

Unforunately there are so many pigs gorging at the US healthcare trough that nothing will be achievied without a great deal of grunting squealing and time wasting.

If I was a US healthcare provider I would be sitting on my hands wondering what sort of beast was going to come slouching towards me and not committing to buying software implemetations which may have no relevance under the new regime, whatever it is.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[whatsup]

Operating loss of 17 mil but looking forward to its first profit next year , Hmmmm !

[Joshuatree]

Haven't been following this but it looks like faith and hope need to be a part of an investors criteria.
Orion Health Announces 1H2017 Interim Results (https://www.nzx.com/companies/OHE/announcements/293388)

[babymonster]

might need a CR next year

[RGR367]

And so once more it is uttered, "We are well positioned :p for a significantly improved 2H2017 and the company remains focussed on driving to profitability through global expansion.............."


disc: not a holder

[Sideshow Bob]

Obviously little credibility with the market - down 32c/12.8% on larger volumes

All time low.

[KiwiGekko]

Obviously little credibility with the market - down 32c/12.8% on larger volumes

All time low.

Glad to see people are starting to wake up to this one. A capital raise looking likely from a quick gander at those numbers, not that they could forecast that, they couldn't (or wouldn't) provide a forecast on IPO day.

Are we looking at the next Wynyard here?

DISC: Never held.

[Lola]

Glad to see people are starting to wake up to this one. A capital raise looking likely from a quick gander at those numbers, not that they could forecast that, they couldn't (or wouldn't) provide a forecast on IPO day.

Are we looking at the next Wynyard here?

DISC: Never held.

I believe this was a company very highly rated by that man C Lee from Kapiti . He had dinner once with the CEO I think.

[winner69]

Wouldn't want to repeat H1 cash burn of $33m with only $24m in the bank would they

[KiwiGekko]

I believe this was a company very highly rated by that man C Lee from Kapiti .

It looks like you are correct. A quick Google shows he referred to Orion's CEO as a Genius!

[Baa_Baa]

Wouldn't want to repeat H1 cash burn of $33m with only $24m in the bank would they

Doesn't look too good does it, this statement is a worry, very ambiguous:

"Cash balances at 30 September stand at $24m. The net cash outflow for the period of $33m reflects the Operating Loss of $17m and an abnormally large movement in working capital items. The outlook for continuing revenue growth and improved EBIT is such that we believe that the company has sufficient cash and facilities to execute its strategy until profit is generated, which we expect to occur in FY2018."

- loss therefore has a $16m "abnormally large movement in working capital items" (not specified).

and
- sufficient cash and facilities (unspecified)

- barely any revenue growth but "profitable in FY2018" (unspecified).

Very vague, rather disconcerting. Not to mention the acknowledgement of US market 'challenges' and yet it is the largest most critical market to OHE.

No wonder the market is uncertain and giving the SP a right royal hiding today. Down 2/3rd's from IPO. Not a good look, not good at all.

[Lola]

It looks like you are correct. A quick Google shows he referred to Orion's CEO as a Genius!

Churchill WAS a genius, but a poor investor.

[blobbles]

Which may also beg the question, why did they IPO with such a high SP? $5.70 wasn't it? That's a huge market cap for a company making massive losses without a large cash reserve... Jeez, Xero got to that sort of market cap only after Peter Thiel threw another $50m of his own money into it (with others).

Disappointing result in terms of growth, basically flat. I think people are especially wary now after WYN...

[whatsup]

Once OHE is cash flow positive this company will spit out cash by the truck load, the trick is when will that happen, even if there is a need for more cash in the market they are which is massive they should make it, once that happens they will attract many suitors from the U S, but how long will that take?

[winner69]

Baabaa - that working capital movement is mainly made up of $8.7m increase in trade receivables and a $14.2m decrease in revenue in advance. (Note 12 in Interim Accounts)

[Baa_Baa]

Baabaa - that working capital movement is mainly made up of $8.7m increase in trade receivables and a $14.2m decrease in revenue in advance. (Note 12 in Interim Accounts)

Yes thanks, been going through the details and as you say it is specified in the notes, but not in detail, fortunately it's "abnormal" so won't happen again, or would that be 'one-off'? Going to be a long wait for shareholders until FY results in March, which presumably won't be announced until April/May sometime.

I feel for shareholders, this whole OHE thing got off to a dubious start with the IPO pricing and it's been a nightmare since then. Hope it pulls out of the nosedive soon, albeit at some point it will appear to be a bargain buy for those who can assume the (small?) risk that it won't go belly-up.

Just another blow to confidence in the NZX listed Tech sector. Not fatal so far, fortunately.

[Baa_Baa]

Yes, this is (depending on the perspective) either a very ugly (for holders) or a fascinating chart (for everybody else). I guess from a technical perspective there might be a chance for a bounce at the 250 mark, but without positive news I don't see that coming.

From a fundamental point of view - I guess they are not (yet) as screwed as WYN (they do have some revenue worthwhile mentioning - but their expenses keep being higher than their income), but in a way comparable. If they manage to close some of the big contracts in the US they are hoping for, than their share price will move into the stratosphere. However - if they don't, than they will be for a long time in loss making territory with future capital risings in view.

How likely is an "America First" Trump administration to put big bucks into a small New Zealand Software company? How likely is an administration which puts the Rich first to put money into a public health system (which would benefit from OHE software)?

You tell me, but I certainly don't expect any good news from the East Island anytime soon.

Maybe they should book the president suite in the Trump tower and fool a bit with the president elect in his hotel spa around ... this might materially improve their chances?

Well BP, those technicals amounted to nothing (I'm throwing that chart in the bin, there's nothing useful that it can say down here after today) and the market says the news is not good news. Kind of ironic that on the very next trading day after your post, the technical support $2.45 failed bigtime on the HY report news and -45 cents or -18% later the SP is at $2.05. Very unsettling, now the long wait for good news, really really good news.

[RupertBear]

Which may also beg the question, why did they IPO with such a high SP? $5.70 wasn't it? That's a huge market cap for a company making massive losses without a large cash reserve... Jeez, Xero got to that sort of market cap only after Peter Thiel threw another $50m of his own money into it (with others).

Disappointing result in terms of growth, basically flat. I think people are especially wary now after WYN...

I am a newbie investor who ignored the warning signs and held onto my Wynyard shares for too long hoping for the best and consequently lost it all along with many others. I am now VERY fearful OHE is going to be another Wynyard so I am very wary of holding and hoping given that didnt work so well last time :( I am thinking maybe it is time to get out now and suck up a loss before it gets even bigger :confused: Be grateful to hear what more experienced investors think of the current situation.

[Lola]

I am a newbie investor who ignored the warning signs and held onto my Wynyard shares for too long hoping for the best and consequently lost it all along with many others. I am now VERY fearful OHE is going to be another Wynyard so I am very wary of holding and hoping given that didnt work so well last time :( I am thinking maybe it is time to get out now and suck up a loss before it gets even bigger :confused: Be grateful to hear what more experienced investors think of the current situation.

Quickly telephone Mr C Lee sharebroker and advisor extraordinaire on the Kapiti Coast.
He knows.

[Balance]

Quickly telephone Mr C Lee sharebroker and advisor extraordinaire on the Kapiti Coast.
He knows.

Yup - the very same Chris Lee who had his very own ratings system for the finance companies with South Canterbury Finance as one on top of his list.

[BlackPeter]

I believe this was a company very highly rated by that man C Lee from Kapiti . He had dinner once with the CEO I think.


Yup - the very same Chris Lee who had his very own ratings system for the finance companies with South Canterbury Finance as one on top of his list.

Sounds like here is a man and a (wo-?)man with an agenda ... axes to grind?

You are right, Chris wrote about OHE and indicated that it is an interesting company with huge potential (if & when the stars align) - and I understand that he holds himself a quite sizeable package (i.e. he puts his money where his mouth is). To be fair - he always indicated as well that OHE is a high risk play (which seems to be so far a quite fair assessment).

Sure - he is not always right (who is?) - and does make mistakes (so do I). Still - I think he adds value and I am one of his clients. So far I made more often money from considering his views and following his recommendations, than losing some (in some cases lost opportunity cost).

If you have issues with Chris, why don't you give him a call and talk them through with him instead of badmouthing him in a public forum?

[Lola]

Sounds like here is a man and a (wo-?)man with an agenda ... axes to grind?

You are right, Chris wrote about OHE and indicated that it is an interesting company with huge potential (if & when the stars align) - and I understand that he holds himself a quite sizeable package (i.e. he puts his money where his mouth is). To be fair - he always indicated as well that OHE is a high risk play (which seems to be so far a quite fair assessment).

Sure - he is not always right (who is?) - and does make mistakes (so do I). Still - I think he adds value and I am one of his clients. So far I made more often money from considering his views and following his recommendations, than losing some (in some cases lost opportunity cost).

If you have issues with Chris, why don't you give him a call and talk them through with him instead of badmouthing him in a public forum?

OK since you are such a fan of Lee you should start a thread on his financial advice accomplishments. It would be more interesting than the travel log rubbish he fats up his weekly diatribes with.

[winner69]

Ian McCrae now calling Orion a hyper-disruptor

As whatsup said once OHE is cash flow positive this company will spit out cash by the truck load

[axe]

Winner I love that term - hyper-disruptor :)

On a more serious note it looks like the market does not believe what the company has to say about remaining cash reserves being enough to carry through to profitability.
Mind you they may need to raise capital while profitable to accelerate growth.


Ian McCrae now calling Orion a hyper-disruptor

As whatsup said once OHE is cash flow positive this company will spit out cash by the truck load

[Leftfield]

Jeepers, just checked the charts and feel for holders. 'Death cross' passed. Further downside anticipated.

[Baa_Baa]

26-Nov-14

28-Nov-16




IPO Price
$ 5.70
% of IPO

% of IPO
% of High










Open Price
$ 6.50
14%
$ 2.53
-56%
-63%


High
$ 6.79
19%
$ 2.53
-56%
-63%


Low
$ 6.20
9%
$ 2.00
-65%
-71%


Close
$ 6.27
10%
$ 2.05
-64%
-70%



The IPO story: https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/orion-health-ipo-price-top-range-cs-165068

[Balance]

Sounds like here is a man and a (wo-?)man with an agenda ... axes to grind?

You are right, Chris wrote about OHE and indicated that it is an interesting company with huge potential (if & when the stars align) - and I understand that he holds himself a quite sizeable package (i.e. he puts his money where his mouth is). To be fair - he always indicated as well that OHE is a high risk play (which seems to be so far a quite fair assessment).

Sure - he is not always right (who is?) - and does make mistakes (so do I). Still - I think he adds value and I am one of his clients. So far I made more often money from considering his views and following his recommendations, than losing some (in some cases lost opportunity cost).

If you have issues with Chris, why don't you give him a call and talk them through with him instead of badmouthing him in a public forum?

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10633708&pnum=2

"Chris Lee, the managing director, wrote to Crone six months before it went into moratorium, saying Strategic "remains one of our preferred providers and their rates are competitive given the reinvestment bonus offered. We rate Strategic as an A-. Strategic has a very high liquidity, an investment grade rating, low bad debts and is well-placed to withstand the difficult conditions in financial markets," Lee wrote on June 13, 2008, in a letter signed by Edward Lee. Strategic defaulted on August 7, 2008.

[BlackPeter]

OK since you are such a fan of Lee you should start a thread on his financial advice accomplishments. It would be more interesting than the travel log rubbish he fats up his weekly diatribes with.

Funny - sounds like you don't like his newsletter. Just wondering - why do you read it?

Its not up to me to advertise for Chris (there would be as well the forum rules), but is is certainly not up to you to badmouth him hiding behind a name de plume.

[Balance]

Funny - sounds like you don't like his newsletter. Just wondering - why do you read it?

Its not up to me to advertise for Chris (there would be as well the forum rules), but is is certainly not up to you to badmouth him hiding behind a name de plume.

Post 2008 :

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/2161440/Advice-and-adversity

Chris Lee loaded up his clients' portfolio pre 2008 with finance companies' bonds - Hanover, Strategic Finance, South Canterbury Finance etc etc.

Pre 2008 :

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=10459887

Investment analyst and broker Chris Lee also rates finance companies on his website, but says he likes to focus on those good companies, those people should invest in, rather than the bad.

"You've got the dual emotions - what is fair and what will cause queues outside the banks," says Lee.

"There are some companies that are unarguably good - Marac, Strategic, St Laurence, South Canterbury and UDC.

"They are not in the argument and it wouldn't be a bad thing for people to contrast those with Nathans, which was clearly a rubbish company and had been identified - certainly by anyone who does analysis - as a rubbish company a long time ago."

Lee says he correctly identified five of the past six failures as high-risk investments.

"It is possible for an experienced person to get hold of information that allows them to differentiate between the best and the worst.

"None of the As and Bs that we've got have had any trouble."

**** Post scrip ****


Chris Lee has of course deleted any reference to his disastrous and mickey mouse in-house finance company ratings system from everywhere - especially his website.

[mondograss]

The thing is, for OHE to be successful (in the manner they want to be) they need large, consistent, joined up datasets to work with. And those datasets simply don't exist for a variety of reasons including patient privacy and assorted govt regulations that forbid joining up such data.

NZ is fairly unique in having an NHI system with a single unique identifier that works across virtually the entire sector. But even that just holds demographic, next of kin data and some allergy and alert data. For virtually everywhere else, the datasets are fragmented practice by practice, hospital by hospital and that's always going to put a big fat handbrake on their ambitions.

So IMHO OHE is on a hiding to nothing and will fast become the next Rakon, where profitability is always just around the corner.

[RGR367]

As I still have a bit left on my speculative cash, I just joined the frenzy by getting some at $2.00 and putting a 2 yr horizon on my gut feel. As a new holder, I could really now have a feel on the discussion on this thread :cool:

[blobbles]

Back of the envelope - I would value OHE now (flat growth) at around 1.5x revenue or $156m... or around $1. That would be my target for buying in, once they reach break even. OHE SP should be punished more methinks...

I guess with this sort of company growth can be verrry lumpy. But next to zero growth in a single year is pretty pathetic from an investment perspective. At least buy something like HBL - double digit growth and likely to return 10c to shareholders next year. Beats no growth loss making companies any day of the week!

[moimoi]

Blobbles, the revenue figure given yesterday is for 6 months bro.

The shares are current trading at your fair value assessment ;-)

[blobbles]

Blobbles, the revenue figure given yesterday is for 6 months bro.

The shares are current trading at your fair value assessment ;-)

Ahhh right, see that's what you get when you only have half the envelope! Of course, 6 months, so fair value about now. Guess that's why RGR bought in...

Thanks for putting me right moimoi!

[Sideshow Bob]

These pups are <1% of my portfolio. At least they are today......started the week a little more than 1%. ;)

[Snoopy]

I am a newbie investor who ignored the warning signs and held onto my Wynyard shares for too long hoping for the best and consequently lost it all along with many others. I am now VERY fearful OHE is going to be another Wynyard so I am very wary of holding and hoping given that didnt work so well last time :( I am thinking maybe it is time to get out now and suck up a loss before it gets even bigger :confused: Be grateful to hear what more experienced investors think of the current situation.


All of these recent NZ start up software companies have a model of building revenue before their investment capital runs out. Once the revenues and customers are in place the model is to turn down the investment tap (relative to revenue) so that the established revenues can turn into profits. A software platform, once established should be relatively cheap to run and service. So if OHE get the equation right, then big profits can follow.

Judging OHE as an investment requires you to assess how long the software will take to develop, and how quickly the revenues will build. So what we have here is a race to build the softwre product and its market before the investment capital runs out. If you believe that OHE can run their race thgen you should stay invested. If you think they will need to stop by the side of the track for a fuel top up (new capital), then you have to consider that new capital may be issued at a discount, and existing shares will be revalued downwards in tandem.

There is no connection between Wynyard and Orion, other than the fact that if new capital is going to be raised today there may not be as many takers in a broader market. Hence the discounting of any new capital might be higher than it otherwise would be. But WYN and OHE are different horses running on different courses. You have to evaluate any investment oppourtunity like this on its own merits.

SNOOPY

[whatsup]

All of these recent NZ start up software companies have a model of building revenue before their investment capital runs out. Once the revenues and customers are in place the model is to turn down the investment tap (relative to revenue) so that the established revenues can turn into profits. A software platform, once established is relatively cheap to run and service. So if OHE get the equation right, then big profits can follow.

Judging OHE as an investment requires you to assess how long the software will take to develop, and how quickly the revenues will build. So what we have here is a race to build the softwre product and its market before the investment capital runs out. If you believe that OHE can run their race thgen you shoudl stay invested. If you think they will need to stop by the side of the track for a fuel top up (new capital), then you have to consider that new capital may be issued at a discount, and existing shares will be revalued downwards in tandem.

Truck loads of cash to be spat out but when, fine art this one imho !

[BlackPeter]

Ouch - dropped through the $2 ... and falling. Quite high volume (well, for the stock) yesterday and today as well - looks like a larger holder wants out.

[RupertBear]

All of these recent NZ start up software companies have a model of building revenue before their investment capital runs out. Once the revenues and customers are in place the model is to turn down the investment tap (relative to revenue) so that the established revenues can turn into profits. A software platform, once established should be relatively cheap to run and service. So if OHE get the equation right, then big profits can follow.

Judging OHE as an investment requires you to assess how long the software will take to develop, and how quickly the revenues will build. So what we have here is a race to build the softwre product and its market before the investment capital runs out. If you believe that OHE can run their race thgen you should stay invested. If you think they will need to stop by the side of the track for a fuel top up (new capital), then you have to consider that new capital may be issued at a discount, and existing shares will be revalued downwards in tandem.

There is no connection between Wynyard and Orion, other than the fact that if new capital is going to be raised today there may not be as many takers in a broader market. Hence the discounting of any new capital might be higher than it otherwise would be. But WYN and OHE are different horses running on different courses. You have to evaluate any investment oppourtunity like this on its own merits.

SNOOPY

Thanks for your pearls of wisdom Snoopy. Much appreciated. I decided to cut my losses and get out at $2.05 first thing this morning for my blood pressures sake! May or may not be the right decision in the long run but I am relieved to be out at the moment. ;)Cheers

[mondograss]

All of these recent NZ start up software companies have a model of building revenue before their investment capital runs out. Once the revenues and customers are in place the model is to turn down the investment tap (relative to revenue) so that the established revenues can turn into profits. A software platform, once established should be relatively cheap to run and service. So if OHE get the equation right, then big profits can follow.

Judging OHE as an investment requires you to assess how long the software will take to develop, and how quickly the revenues will build. So what we have here is a race to build the softwre product and its market before the investment capital runs out. If you believe that OHE can run their race thgen you should stay invested. If you think they will need to stop by the side of the track for a fuel top up (new capital), then you have to consider that new capital may be issued at a discount, and existing shares will be revalued downwards in tandem.

There is no connection between Wynyard and Orion, other than the fact that if new capital is going to be raised today there may not be as many takers in a broader market. Hence the discounting of any new capital might be higher than it otherwise would be. But WYN and OHE are different horses running on different courses. You have to evaluate any investment oppourtunity like this on its own merits.

SNOOPY

Hi Snoopy, the thing to remember is that OHE is NOT a recent start up, they might be a recent listing, but they've been around about 20 years from memory. As has much of their software. Hence my comparison with Rakon. They have big inertia in the market to try and overcome, and a regulatory environment that is simply not supportive of what they're trying to do. They can talk all they like about being a hyper-disrupter, but Healthcare is a heavily regulated industry (with good reason) that very definitely does not like to be disrupted.

[Snoopy]

Hi Snoopy, the thing to remember is that OHE is NOT a recent start up, they might be a recent listing, but they've been around about 20 years from memory. As has much of their software. Hence my comparison with Rakon. They have big inertia in the market to try and overcome, and a regulatory environment that is simply not supportive of what they're trying to do. They can talk all they like about being a hyper-disrupter, but Healthcare is a heavily regulated industry (with good reason) that very definitely does not like to be disrupted.


Thanks for the correction Mondograss. I don't follow OHE closely, so I was not aware of the 20 year history pre listing. I think it is fair to say that OHE only came onto most investor's horizons with their listing. So from most investors perspective it is a new company. And the theory of building scale in their market before the new (since listing) development capital runs (notwithstanding the fact that they have survived on seed capital for 20 years before listing) doesn't change.

SNOOPY

[Snow Leopard]

Thanks for your pearls of wisdom Snoopy. Much appreciated. I decided to cut my losses and get out at $2.05 first thing this morning for my blood pressures sake! May or may not be the right decision in the long run but I am relieved to be out at the moment. ;)Cheers

Then you made the right decision.

So buy yourself a little treat (maybe a Jelly Tip :) )

Then work out what you are going to do with rest of the cash.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[janner]

Then you made the right decision.

So buy yourself a little treat (maybe a Jelly Tip :) )

Then work out what you are going to do with rest of the cash.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Cruel P.T .. :-))))) Though good advice.. Take note Rupert DYOR.

[RupertBear]

Cruel P.T .. :-))))) Though good advice.. Take note Rupert DYOR.

Was good advice and taken in good spirit :) I am doing my best to DMOR but I still make mistakes, but I have learned something new from each one so hopefully I wont make so many or such big ones in the future :confused::D

[janner]

We..... WE ... All of us have learnt from our mistakes.. Today we still make them ... With still much to learn.


You are on the right track Rupert.. :-)))

[Snow Leopard]

Do not confuse making a loss with making a mistake.

You make your decision based on available information at the time.
What happens subsequently you use to make your next decision.

But sometimes you get the decision right and make a loss :(
and sometimes you get the wrong decision and make money :mellow:.

Such is life :D

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Baa_Baa]

Thanks for the correction Mondograss. I don't follow OHE closely, so I was not aware of the 20 year history pre listing. I think it is fair to say that OHE only came onto most investor's horizons with their listing. So from most investors perspective it is a new company. And the theory of building scale in their market before the new (since listing) development capital runs (notwithstanding the fact that they have survived on seed capital for 20 years before listing) doesn't change.

SNOOPY

With respect Snoopy, a bit more research might be in order.

Orion Health were a solid privately owned profitable company who had grown nationally and internationally with their premier health sector products, simply put, in patient administration and clinical information systems. They are a dominant provider of these systems with implementations in every DHB (hospital) in NZ and many clients internationally.

There is no notion of 'seed capital' funding the business prior to listing, ergo an early startup or hi-growth company. Orion Health was a mature growing fully funded and profitable entity going into listing.

So what was the purpose of listing?

If I could be so bold as to summarise Ian McCraes vision and intent, he saw a global opportunity, to be at the centre of clinical health care records and patient health care administration, or in other words the aggregator of the health care information universe, internationally.

It is a bold and brave strategy but one borne out of many years of local and international successes and a genuine need, allbeit immensely challenging to create national sector unification of health care records in patient administration and clinical systems. However Orion do actually have viable and proven systems and solutions that go a long way, to achieving that vision.

But that's not the sole reason they listed.

The gist of it is that the vision and strategy required funding way beyond the ability of the company to fund its own strategy and growth, solely out of profits. Hence going public.

So where is the funding going? There are three main sink-holes sucking up the company funding. They are:

1. re-platforming the core technical solutions (this means moving them from a licenced software model to a Software as a Service [centralised] model = very expensive re-write);

2. putting in place the international marketing and sales capability;

3. ramping up support for the growing customer base.

Since then, with a small hundred million or so of investors capital, the company has made significant inroads into their target markets.

But that is all circumspect in the bigger picture that investors are interested in.

Despite growth in target markets, a compelling and viable suite of healthcare administration and clinical solutions, excellent progress in replatforming the solutions, increased effective sales channels and customer support, Orion have a big problem.

The problem is, they're running out of money and the market capital value is being decimated. The market does not like being sold a story without clear evidence (the IPO) and then delivery (the results) of worth, then gutting themselves with repeated naive disclosures that re-enforce the perception of the company's ignorance of investors objectives.

It is obvious that the transition from private ownership to public listing and ownership is difficult, unfamiliar and awkward.

In the medium to longer term my opinion for what it's worth, which may be very little, is that Orion Health are doing all the right things to be a dominant global provider of health care patient administration and clinical systems and perfectly placed as the aggregator of the holy grail of the universal health identity record which is the core of all health care systems.

But it will take a few more truck loads of money from investors and a great deal longer than many expect or hope for, before Orion emerges as the self funded profitable company that it once was and again seeks to be, in the global health sector, albeit a great deal larger if they are successful.

Kansas or bust, it seems to be a common theme with NZ techs.