PPH - PushPay (Church/donor software.)

[minimoke]

Bids = $4.04 tick
Bids completed before open market on Wednesday = tick
Bids scaled = tick

and of course to reiterate 9% of stock back into free float. = tick

and earnings guidance remains unchanged. = tick

[winner69]

Job done.
More than $4.
Application scaled.
Back on the market shortly.

Good eh

19 high quality institutional investors ---- that'll improve liquidity

[gbogo]

$4.04. only got 30% of what i asked for...

[minimoke]

And they are entering the starting gates at $4.15 before the starting gun goes off at 3:03pm

[minimoke]

Also kudos to Investor Relations - within minutes I have the news in my email inbox.

[Joshuatree]

Over subscribed with scaling. bugger missed some easy $ sa la vie
"The bookbuild was conducted by Deutsche Craigs Limited[i], as manager and underwriter. The bookbuild was well supported, attracting bids from 19 institutional investors across New Zealand, Australia and the US."

[Entrep]

Out at $4.20. Good luck to all holders

[Balance]

Good eh

19 high quality institutional investors ---- that'll improve liquidity

Have to say, excellent results!

[whatsup]

Trading again, $4.20 .

[biker]

Really? They must be getting desperate then (lol, no offence).

Dunno what's taking so long. If they don't wrap this up today fully subscribed then it's a huge red flag. Would hate to be holding $100m of paper that you can't get rid off. What were Deutsche Craig thinking.

I guess they were thinking there’s money to be made.

[biker]

You would think so.

But the amount of money they can potentially make via commission, fees, services etc is so high that it clouds their thinking.

The fact that they're asking this morning suggest not alot of support internationally overnight.

They'll probably scrap it together at the last minute tomorrow morning but that won't leave alot of support at the current level when it re-opens. The real test, like someone said, is the share price at years end but what then, another sell down by the other co-founder?.

Yeah right.

[biker]

lol, if they have to stoop that low might as well pull the plug. Who's gonna be left to support the $4 level.

19 institutional investors for a start.

[biker]

https://www.afr.com/street-talk/deutsche-craigs-launches-92m-pushpay-selldown-20180618-h11ja0

Summary:



No doubt the short seller will put a bid in, lol.

Gee, is it actually gonna full completely? Why would any overseas investors buy in now that it's not getting a NASDAQ listing? Looking at PPH on Hotcopper you can tell it's not a very popular stock over there, so therefore there can't be many Aussie investors interested. Where is this $100m gonna come from in less than 2 days? Don't make me laugh and say NZ.

How much will Deutsche Craigs get out of this, 5% commission, 8%? What are they gonna do if they have heaps left over, lend them all out to more short sellers?

Look at ASX:AVZ the other week, the director sold a large chunk and the stock got sold off heavily. Do Deutsche Craigs even now what they're doing? How can this even trade above $4 when it re-opens?

It all just seems so orchestrated. The stock gets shorted, Deutsche Craigs gets a fat commission, the co founder bails with $millions, an investor presentation is released saying everything is fine but the one good news (USA listing) everyone here is waiting for is now not happening.

Just lol to be honest. Maybe it will do an Afterpay (ASX:APT) and keep going up but my feeling is that anybody who bought this in the last 6 months is gonna get walloped when this reopen.

Yeah right

[hardt]

Yawn... That presentation was pretty good yesterday, reiterating guidance was absolutely needed.. if they miss this one then I'm out.

[Leftfield]

Have to say, excellent results!

Got to say yesterdays announcements caught me well off guard and I still have a few concerns, but kudos to PPH they seem to have handled it well. After a nervous few hours I've decided to continue to hold, tho' with an average hold price of $2.49 I am relatively 'de-risked.' Onwards to the next update.

[biker]

I suspect a lot of their "NZX turnover of shares" numbers are due to people buying in once the NASDAQ listing was announced last year. Those people are going to be mighty pee'd off now, expect a hammering on the SP over the next few weeks. My pick is low 3's to high 2's.

Good luck with that.

[winner69]

All pretty good eh .....we’ll be at 5 bucks before we know it ....bloody amazing

[bull....]

smart move selling before a capital gains tax comes in

[minimoke]

lol.

What has the share price done in the last 6 months, nothing. .Only if you use that time frame. Equally you could pick one month and it has risen a bit from $4.00 to a high today of $4.21. Or one year where it has risen from approx $2.00

[sb9]

Also kudos to Investor Relations - within minutes I have the news in my email inbox.

Yes, couldn't agree more. Sarah in IR dept does a pretty good job.

All in all very swift and positive outcome for shareholders, onwards and upwards from here.

Well done team PPH.

[minimoke]

Closed with 500,000 crossing at $4.15. A bit of a premium on $4.04

[iceman]

Yes, couldn't agree more. Sarah in IR dept does a pretty good job.

All in all very swift and positive outcome for shareholders, onwards and upwards from here.

Well done team PPH.

Ditto and kudos to Sarah Elder and PPH for great investor relations.

[bullfrog]

Great result, been keeping the faith since $1.76, happy days. Worth noting that there’s 2.4 billion people that believe in Christianity, thanks google, 1.09 billion Catholics. USA is ranked 85th in the world for Christian’s per capita, admittedly the poorer countries take up the the higher places, but Italy, Ireland, Argentina and who’d have thought it, Vatican City at no.1, everyone there believes in God, funny that, all feature and are great places for pushpay. A one trick pony... bit like Facebook.

[couta1]

smart move selling before a capital gains tax comes in That's years away, at least until after the next election and probably longer if the current lot get sent packing.

[Beagle]

lol.

What has the share price done in the last 6 months, nothing. Where will it be in 6 months time, likely less than today.

Best of luck to you. It was a solid sell down. Time well tell weather this was a great exit or not by the co-founder.

This stock is just a one-tick pony. How long will it last I wonder.


Closed with 500,000 crossing at $4.15. A bit of a premium on $4.04

Exactly right as I sold out at exactly $4.15 in mid December last year.

[The Crab Man]

Chris Heaslip on NBR today, painted a pretty positive picture. The placement allowed a US investor to buy a chunk and attracted nine new institutional buyers. He commented business was doing well. PPH have done a pretty good job in my view from what was a potentially challenging situation.

[The Crab Man]

Goldman Sachs has initiated coverage of PPH and has a price-target of $5.80.

[Putty]

Perhaps Goldman Sachs was that US investor? 😋

[winner69]

Goldman Sachs has initiated coverage of PPH and has a price-target of $5.80.

Wow

Cheap as around the 4 buck mark

That wasn’t AUD was it?

[The Crab Man]

That wasn’t AUD was it?[No, AUD target $5.40]

[Lorne Ranger]

And so begins the climb again. Snakes and ladders is just a training tool for children's' future share investing, the same way musical chairs trains them for finding a carpark.

Happy to hold.

[gbogo]

My read of the NBR article is positive. They didn't want to sell down in smaller chunks because of the overhang perception it would create. Getting institutional funds on board is the best thing they can have done - they will be strong holders and it will initiate coverage by brokers (like GS already) which will lead to further buying. and then as there is more liquid float, there will be more passive fund buying required at quarter-end.

Over the last few months, I felt there were too many sellers lined up above $4.30, but I sold out my stake too early, as a result. I bought back in yesterday and topped up what I didn't get allocated. I agree the share price has been flat since Dec, but I think it will soon be off on another run, now this deal is done. I don't think we will see sub-$4.00 again.

(I heard similar concerns about the ERD placement at $3 (i think?) and look where that is now...)

[drcjp]

My read of the NBR article is positive. They didn't want to sell down in smaller chunks because of the overhang perception it would create. Getting institutional funds on board is the best thing they can have done - they will be strong holders and it will initiate coverage by brokers (like GS already) which will lead to further buying. and then as there is more liquid float, there will be more passive fund buying required at quarter-end.

Over the last few months, I felt there were too many sellers lined up above $4.30, but I sold out my stake too early, as a result. I bought back in yesterday and topped up what I didn't get allocated. I agree the share price has been flat since Dec, but I think it will soon be off on another run, now this deal is done. I don't think we will see sub-$4.00 again.

(I heard similar concerns about the ERD placement at $3 (i think?) and look where that is now...)

Pretty much agree with this. As to why this event at all - well its been alluded to here and that's sad really (if the reason is true).

Goldman-Sachs are a lot of things, but stupid isn't one of them.

[couta1]

What criminals. Its called serious but legal market manipulation Lol.

[gbogo]

$14.6m gone through on NZX so far today. I think that's a very good sign. And the books in both NZ and on the ASX are full of good-sized bids and offers. As I recall, it was a lot thinner before this sell-down; so people will be happier to take positions and bigger ones, because they know they will be able to get out without killing the market. And there are now many more buyers than sellers lined up, again both on the NZX and ASX. I'm putting my tiny hand up for a few more as well.

[iceman]

My read of the NBR article is positive. They didn't want to sell down in smaller chunks because of the overhang perception it would create. Getting institutional funds on board is the best thing they can have done - they will be strong holders and it will initiate coverage by brokers (like GS already) which will lead to further buying. and then as there is more liquid float, there will be more passive fund buying required at quarter-end.

Over the last few months, I felt there were too many sellers lined up above $4.30, but I sold out my stake too early, as a result. I bought back in yesterday and topped up what I didn't get allocated. I agree the share price has been flat since Dec, but I think it will soon be off on another run, now this deal is done. I don't think we will see sub-$4.00 again.

(I heard similar concerns about the ERD placement at $3 (i think?) and look where that is now...)

I agree with this. The NBR article was a good explanation of what they´ve done and the reasoning for it. Well managed process in my view. Great to have the new institutional investors onboard and all the best for the founder exiting to deal with difficult personal circumstances to deal with.
I reiterate that I am pleased they´ve stopped thinking about NASDAQ listing as I think it was a very far fetched idea for PPH currently. Prefer they stay focused for now on growing the business and making it cashflow positive. this year

[drcjp]

GSquidward might have PPH at 5.80 but couple of others reckon higher at 6.57!!!!
http://www.4-traders.com/PUSHPAY-HOLDINGS-LTD-32613790/

We live in interesting times.

[winner69]

What you guys think of my revenue projections for the next 9 years. Inputs into my DCF model

Pretty good eh ....the top line gives an DCF valuation of $5.40


But Chris says their target is a billion in 10 years when they get that share of giving uo .... might have to do another chart ha ha

[Nigelk]

Liking that 19 parties stumped up an average of $5m + to buy in/more so quickly and at a not-too-discounted price.
Liking that the SP is recovering quickly too

[minimoke]

Liking that 19 parties stumped up an average of $5m + to buy in/more so quickly and at a not-too-discounted price.
Liking that the SP is recovering quickly too
Very nice, 208,000 swapped at $4.26. Those Buying at $4.04 will be well pleased and those on $4.36 the other day only a little behind.

[hardt]

Majority of the bearish comments litter this forum almost exclusively following any bearish price action or an initially unfriendly announcement or news piece and visa versa... posts seem to be triggered by a bias being confirmed or even created in that moment...

[blobbles]

Majority of the bearish comments litter this forum almost exclusively following any bearish price action or an initially unfriendly announcement or news piece and visa versa... posts seem to be triggered by a bias being confirmed or even created in that moment...

Pretty hard to say something negative without being called a bear! I honestly thought we would see quite a price drop after the announcement to not proceed with a NASDAQ listing, good to see the SP has held up so well. But someone actually gave me negative feedback as a downramper! Does this mean we cannot express opinions we have given a companies negative news?

[iceman]

Pretty hard to say something negative without being called a bear! I honestly thought we would see quite a price drop after the announcement to not proceed with a NASDAQ listing, good to see the SP has held up so well. But someone actually gave me negative feedback as a downramper! Does this mean we cannot express opinions we have given a companies negative news?

No it definitely does not. We need a frank open discussion with a variety of views on this stock and all the others. That´s what this website is all about. It helps all of us to read different views that challenges us to think outside the box

[peat]

absolutely iceman. I agree that positives and negatives are all valuable. Though it is the human condition to rave about your faves. To make everyone else see your truth. haha
I tend to not go on about the bad ones. say it once and leave it that. Apart from FBU of course I will continue to hate that and state that.

[peat]

Back to Pushpay. I got out because I saw it as having disappointed me by not going cash flow positive and price went to a crazy level. I'm interested in the keeping the company on a watch list but am seeing concerns with the full and immediate departure of the co-founder. Over the next 6-12 mths it would be important for me to see some new growth targets achieved just in case the dude that has gone was the main man.

[sb9]

Back to Pushpay. I got out because I saw it as having disappointed me by not going cash flow positive and price went to a crazy level. I'm interested in the keeping the company on a watch list but am seeing concerns with the full and immediate departure of the co-founder. Over the next 6-12 mths it would be important for me to see some new growth targets achieved just in case the dude that has gone was the main man.

ASM next month should give us some more updates as to how they're tracking.

[Twinklefingers]

I got out at $4.20 when trading restarted. I already viewed this as my highest risk investment, I bought in around the $2 mark and was happy to keep holding otherwise but someone dumping 9% of the stock is a huge red flag to me and while it could be for totally acceptable reasons there is no way for me to verify them so it's crossed into too risky territory. I'm certainly not bearish on this stock but I'm a lot happier out than in.

[gbogo]

Chris Lee ( chrislee.co.nz ) covers PPH in his weekly newsletter today, comparing it favourably to XRO.

I also read the Goldman note in full yesterday - $5.80 target and very thorough analysis of the market and competitive space. PPH has the best product, the deepest product and best strategy in a very fragmented market. Also made the point that churches are being forced to take action because attendance is dropping. Finally, they give no valuation to other markets (eg Education) although PPH are hiring in that area. very positive, I thought.

[RTM]

I watched an Australian Motley Fool Pro interview yesterday....( FY 2019 Investor Summit )
Sorry...can't find a link to it.

The guy (Matt Joass I think) was asked to name a stock of the type he was recommending. I was surprised that PushPay was the one they then talked about in some detail. He was very keen on it. He had bought 4 x's as they got to know the company better. He had visited the company in the USA (and NZ) and seen how the product was being used. etc etc.

Made me realise how important it is that our companies, perhaps especially startup / techs access bigger capital markets than NZ. e.g Serko recently listing on the ASX.

[Nigelk]

Peat - Chris is CEO and a Director. Eliot (who left) was described as a sales exec. Should give some clues on whether the main guy has left.

[peat]

Peat - Chris is CEO and a Director. Eliot (who left) was described as a sales exec. Should give some clues on whether the main guy has left.

Sales exec of US.

Sales are everything arent they? The US is their largest market and largest potential market.

[Lorne Ranger]

Another healthy volume of sales today, all goes to strengthen foundation of the stock after steep rises. Recent upsets will soon be forgotten. Lake temperature rising....

[winner69]

It’s a bugger we have to wait a few weeks extra for quarterly updates now. Was always so exciting getting them on the 10th of the month following the quarter end now have to wait a month.

Probably something to do with reporting revenues and not just that ACMR thingie.

[Hectorplains]

It’s a bugger we have to wait a few weeks extra for quarterly updates now. Was always so exciting getting them on the 10th of the month following the quarter end now have to wait a month.

Probably something to do with reporting revenues and not just that ACMR thingie.

Chin up, Winner. They're bound to change the way they're reporting soon enough...

[Lorne Ranger]

Chin up, Winner. They're bound to change the way they're reporting soon enough...

What makes you think that?

[sb9]

Anyone from here attending ASM today in Auckland??

[sb9]

Anyone from here attending ASM today in Auckland??

I guess none from here were present at ASM. Was hoping to get some updates as to anything significant.

Nice easy top up this arvo when price went to low 3.90s.

[Chanchay]

A dramatic drop today, almost 6% at its lowest point. I wonder if some inside knowledge prompted this (not that I would ever suggest this kind of activity occurs)

[smartbomb]

This coud have something to do with it:

http://www.thenonprofittimes.com/news-articles/blackbaud-launches-church-management-product/

[Chanchay]

This coud have something to do with it:

http://www.thenonprofittimes.com/news-articles/blackbaud-launches-church-management-product/

excellent find, thanks for sharing.

[winner69]

Is this Blackbaud thing the elephant in the room that’s going to dampen Push’s growth?

No doubt Push knows a lot about Blackbaud and other potential competitors and have strategies to protect their market positions.

But Blackbaud are pretty big

Being one of 57 companies on Fortune’s Change the World list is pretty cool.

[winner69]

Blackbaud think Push not meeting the churches needs.

From their press release

“Current market offerings are not meeting the comprehensive needs of churches both large and small—and given the positive impact made by faith communities, Blackbaud intends to transform the status quo in partnership with the church community,” said Kevin Knight, president and general manager, Blackbaud Faith Solutions. “Our proven expertise in cloud software for social good, our commitment to listening to the market and our expert staff who come from the church space uniquely position us to provide church leaders with an unmatched experience that addresses all their unique needs and breaks the mold of typical church software solutions.”

[Chanchay]

Blackbaud think Push not meeting the churches needs.

From their press release

“Current market offerings are not meeting the comprehensive needs of churches both large and small—and given the positive impact made by faith communities, Blackbaud intends to transform the status quo in partnership with the church community,” said Kevin Knight, president and general manager, Blackbaud Faith Solutions. “Our proven expertise in cloud software for social good, our commitment to listening to the market and our expert staff who come from the church space uniquely position us to provide church leaders with an unmatched experience that addresses all their unique needs and breaks the mold of typical church software solutions.”


I find this to be quite an interesting development.

I have always struggled with the idea that churches, the banishers of sin and self appointed bastions of righteousness, justice and truth, would accept a very commercial company like Pushpay. Church goers really could personify Pushpay as the biblical Jews on the steps of holy places, clipping the ticket.

This idea is in contrast of course to the reality of running a large organisation like a modern church and the convenience and efficiencies that a system like echurch provides.

I would caution that if Blackbaud can establish themselves as the organisation with more 'spiritual' or 'christian' credibility, and can provide a similar product, that they could seriously threaten the progress Pushpay has made.

I view this, in addition to the loss Eliot Crowther as a risk to the company that I am no longer willing to take in the short term and have therefore cashed out and banked in the reasonable gains that have been made in the last couple years.

I will be watching closely out of interest. Good luck to all holders, I hope that commercial interests and the delivery of a good product win over those of less tangible ideas.

[winner69]

I find this to be quite an interesting development.

I have always struggled with the idea that churches, the banishers of sin and self appointed bastions of righteousness, justice and truth, would accept a very commercial company like Pushpay. Church goers really could personify Pushpay as the biblical Jews on the steps of holy places, clipping the ticket.

This idea is in contrast of course to the reality of running a large organisation like a modern church and the convenience and efficiencies that a system like echurch provides.

I would caution that if Blackbaud can establish themselves as the organisation with more 'spiritual' or 'christian' credibility, and can provide a similar product, that they could seriously threaten the progress Pushpay has made.

I view this, in addition to the loss Eliot Crowther as a risk to the company that I am no longer willing to take in the short term and have therefore cashed out and banked in the reasonable gains that have been made in the last couple years.

I will be watching closely out of interest. Good luck to all holders, I hope that commercial interests and the delivery of a good product win over those of less tangible ideas.

Cool post ...

[drcjp]

This coud have something to do with it:

http://www.thenonprofittimes.com/news-articles/blackbaud-launches-church-management-product/

Nah, not so sure about that. If you look at the PPH chart this year its bounced up and down on a regular basis.
Seeing as NZX don't report shorting or other related trades, we'll never know.
And Fridays bump is no different to the rest for this year.

Any effect of Blackbaud won't be known for couple months at least.

[minimoke]

Blackbaud have been around since 1981 and currently have $800m in earnings. So when I see them say "“Current market offerings are not meeting the comprehensive needs of churches both large and small" so they are really looking in a mirror and having to describe their contribution to that state of affairs. They bought Microedge / FIMS a few years back to give them that additional step into faith based revenues.

I see the announcement as good news. It highlights how large this market is - and Blackbaud isnt covering the whole market. I see PushPay being the disruptor to this market - rather than Blackbaud taking that position. Blackbaud seem to be following PPH's lead - given PPH's current position in the faith based market.

I do not see churches as being fast movers. I dont see them changing from PPH to Blackbaud over night. Any effect Blackbaud have wont be seen for at least a year. I see PPH as still being the nimbler of the providers - whereas Blackbud appears to take some time to bring improvements to market. (and it seems theri revenue growth is due to acquisitions rather than improved products).

I also dont see Blackbaud as a "Spiritual" type company. After all they were originally established in one of the greatest dens of sin- New York back in 1981. Churches / Faiths wont be fooled by this veneer - they will spot a wolf in lambs clothing a mile away. And dont be fooled by this "spiritual" edge - faiths are one of the biggest hard nosed corporate entities out there - they are very successful with taking cash off those who can least afford it it. So they wont have any difficulty working with a provider who offers the best solutions for extracting the cash from the flock.

[winner69]

Clare Capital posted this link to some benchmark stuff

Push is Rare Earth stuff ....or going to be

https://benchmarks.openviewpartners.com

You have a 0.1% chance of reaching $100M in 5 years....that’s the odds Push have smashed

[Miway]

Very interesting Winner. Pushpay certainly pushing the boundaries'


Clare Capital posted this link to some benchmark stuff

Push is Rare Earth stuff ....or going to be

https://benchmarks.openviewpartners.com

You have a 0.1% chance of reaching $100M in 5 years....that’s the odds Push have smashed

[dreamcatcher]

GS Buy rated (CL) on PPH.AX/PPH.NZ 12-month target A$5.40/NZ$5.80

Long as Push are doing a great job faith sector unlikely to risk their lifeblood

Business as usual

[Lorne Ranger]

Bit of market weakness. Based on competitor announcement? Maybe just shaking out a few non-believers?

[drcjp]

Look at the chart for 2018. Its been nothing shaking the woodies, btw 3.80-4.20. Large buying around the 4.00 mark has left it at that level. August-Sept updates will be key for a lot of them.

[JeremyALD]

Looks like this one trick pony is running out of tricks (*sips hot Milo)...

Let's not forget that this company is nothing more than a stupid button app, operating in a niche of a niche. Founder has bailed and is sitting on a beach somewhere. The broker pump has ended as more retail holders pile in. How long before the other founder bails I wonder? This is going the way of the dodo. It was cool in 2012, but now it's old tech.

This is no Afterpay, far from it. Afterpay actually provides a service and has a business model. Pushpay is the type of crap that a 14 year old would come up with in high school. The only reason why this stock has been somewhat successful is that it somehow got thrown in with the other "high growth tech stocks". Yes, it has had an impressive "revenue" (churn) but why has the long term outlook on this stock not reflected it's short term performance, as it has with other tech stocks? It's because smart people are slowing realising that this is nothing more than a fad and are bailing.

If this company was any good it would have gotten to $10B already, which by today's global standards is small. It's not, it's at only $1b and dropping. As the saying goes, easy come easy go. My guess, is that this will be acquired for like $500m tops, sometime in the next 2-3 years, if it's lucky. Either that or a complete 'My Space' type wipe out.

Lol going from a small start up in NZ to a $1b company is no laughing matter and if it was such an average product it never would of got the buy in it has.

I agree Afterpay has a far larger market and better product (which I pointed out a few months ago) but now Afterpay is valued at $3b so that's somewhat priced in. Afterpay is also better at communicating the benefits to retail in increased spend as a result of their service.

Imo Pushpay is going to have steady growth but I can't ever see it making serious cash that is worth the investment.

[Lorne Ranger]

Wow, Ogg, sounds like a nasty break up! Hope the Milo helped, especially with whatever it was spiked with. Perhaps you sold this stock when you should have held? But in the meantime, it would be good to at least pepper your comments with some reasonable facts for your assertions.

Lots of good tech companies have a very simple product. Operating in a "niche of niche" is fine when that niche is worth billions in turnover. The founders shares I believe were well received by institutional investors. $10B by now? OK, sure, whatever you say. Not sure why I'm bothering to reply frankly but by all means dont buy this stock Ogg, sounds like you just need a wee lie down?


Looks like this one trick pony is running out of tricks (*sips hot Milo)...

Let's not forget that this company is nothing more than a stupid button app, operating in a niche of a niche. Founder has bailed and is sitting on a beach somewhere. The broker pump has ended as more retail holders pile in. How long before the other founder bails I wonder? This is going the way of the dodo. It was cool in 2012, but now it's old tech.

This is no Afterpay, far from it. Afterpay actually provides a service and has a business model. Pushpay is the type of crap that a 14 year old would come up with in high school. The only reason why this stock has been somewhat successful is that it somehow got thrown in with the other "high growth tech stocks". Yes, it has had an impressive "revenue" (churn) but why has the long term outlook on this stock not reflected it's short term performance, as it has with other tech stocks? It's because smart people are slowing realising that this is nothing more than a fad and are bailing.

If this company was any good it would have gotten to $10B already, which by today's global standards is small. It's not, it's at only $1b and dropping. As the saying goes, easy come easy go. My guess, is that this will be acquired for like $500m tops, sometime in the next 2-3 years, if it's lucky. Either that or a complete 'My Space' type wipe out.

[silu]

Ogg fwiw an acquaintance in the tech sector has similar views to you on Pushpay. He can't see any real growth for their technology either.
discl. don't know anything really about PPH and never hel

[minimoke]

What you got to understand is that with "high growth tech stocks", it's the forward looking protective that's important. There's already so much priced in with this stock that even the status quo isn't going to be enough to justify the market cap. We could talk about "reasonable facts" all day long, the funny thing is that the market isn't interesting in facts, it's looking for leading indicators of growth, ie, non-facts that might become facts in the future. The outlook for this stock is bleak at best. It's operating in a weird space, "religious Christian church donations", I mean come on, what is that?
Basically they are a company that provides a tool to supposedly very simply make donations, pay for things and buy stuff. The "religious christian church donation" is just one space they can operate in. It might seem weird - but if you look at american churches that lot are all bonkers. So it makes perfect sense to provide a tool that makes it easier to extract the loot from the faithful.

As a holder, I am not too distracted by this "Faith Giving". I am more interested in the appeal of the product to market and the ability of the company to sell. And of course make a profit in the process. That PPH have sold to 13 of the top 20 churches and 54 of the top 100 churches tells me they have a product that does have market appeal and is saleable.


Don't think for a moment that selling to the top churches will be an "easy" sel. These church people are canny folk. So canny from time to time I ask myself should I be an ethical investor in which case if I was I couldn't hold PPH.

You dont need faith to be a PPH holder - look at the numbers for the story. There is oodles of potential there. If they fail to realise the potential then I'll no longer be a holder.

[drcjp]

I've learned on my short time on this forum that what's written here is not necessarily correlated with what an individual might be doing on the markets.

[44wishlists]

I do share many same thoughts with Ogg on PPH. Since the management has been constantly adapting "creative" accounting method(s) when reporting their numbers and figures, this already gave me an unease. Then one of the co-founders departed and dumped ALL his shares, in addition to rowed back its planned listing in US. I decided to sell all my shares in 420. The management did not offer me the level of confidence that it used to be.

Sidenote: Afterpay do look more promising when compares to PPH, in particular in the growth aspect.

[BlackPeter]

19 - 6 - 2018:

Pretty good result, let's see what the market thinks.

25 - 7- 2018:

The industry has moved away from simple, single use, button apps. It's more about AI and cloud integration and trying to align all the technologies together into a smoother, more customer friendly integration. Having to install an app, sign up, load your credit card, and push buttons is a legacy platform - it's old tech!

The future is voice ID payments, eye verification payments, AI bot payments, even fully automated payments is possible now days, not just paying for something, but predicting that something has to be paid for before it needs to be paid! For example, just look at Gmails new AI rolling out. It knows when a payment is due before you even do, it can trigger that without human interaction. This is the future. Full auto! Just lol at having to download an old app and push buttons.

Pushpay is struggling to break out globally. It's stuck in a weird niche and not growing in terms of market penetration. It's likely peaked in terms of reach and where the platform can go. As the industry moves forward and continues to invest, companies like Pushpay will fall behind and become irrelevant. The "church donation" market is just a side show and is used by the company to justify it's market cap, when in reality it's evidence of it's weak demand for it's product and limited functionality.

Investors will be shocked at just how fast things can change and how quickly sentiment can shift. There's a good reason why the co-founder bailed.


Yeah, I've come here to talk the stock down so I can get it a few cents cheaper. Perhaps the co-founder is doing the same. Just lol.

Where has the share price gone in 6 months? Nowhere! Meanwhile Afterpay has doubled Pushpay's market cap in that time.

The Grandpa fund managers have no idea. I doubt they're reading this thread. I don't know who's buying/selling this stock. It's probably mostly just algo bots trading the $4 level. One thing for sure is that retail investors will be growing on the share registry over the last 6 months.

Interesting change of mind in such a short time without news.

Just wondering what happened during this one month? In June you considered their latest result as "pretty good result" and one month later the company seems to be run by morons without any technical understanding ...

Look - I don't want to stand here as the defender of PPH ... and I am not. I do have a number of reservations (well documented on this thread) and am not holding.

However - its quite funny if a poster is doing a 180 degree flip flop without explanation - which could either point to insufficient research in the first place or alternatively to some hidden agenda.

Or is it just that you bought them too dear at the end of the uptrend and are now annoyed that your portfolio is moving backwards? If that's the case ... this is not the fault of the company!

Do you want to share with us what turned you from a supporter into a religious fighter against PPH?

BTW ... not sure about you, but I certainly would not use any application which tries to predict whether I want to donate or pay something and than does that for me ... as long as they use my money :D;

[BlackPeter]

I was referring to the results of the book build. ie, I was surprised that it fulled at that price. Not the financial or performance results.

Have never owned this stock.

Fair enough - misinterpreted the context. Mea culpa.

Still wondering what triggered this recent change of tune and / or volume? Was it just the milo?

[drcjp]

I'm pretty sure it's an out flow of speculative funds from Pushpay into Afterpay.

Also, why risk your money here when you can get better returns with the FANG stocks and no risk.

The drop below the book build price is a huge bear signal.

Without the NASDAQ listing and only a handful of institutional investors, there's not alot of rich pockets to take up the slack. Not alot of activity on HotCopper either. Who's left, mom-and-pa NZ retail holders?

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/319574

Pushpay Holdings Limited (NZSX:PPH, ASX:PPH, ‘Pushpay’ or ‘the Company’) is pleased to advise the bookbuild for Eliot Crowther’s NZ$100 million sell down has been successfully completed, with all shares held by Mr Crowther’s associated interests being sold, at the clearing price of NZ$4.04 per share. The book was oversubscribed with all bids subject to scaling.
The bookbuild was conducted by Deutsche Craigs Limited[i], as manager and underwriter. The bookbuild was well supported, attracting bids from 19 institutional investors across New Zealand, Australia and the US.

So, no - not just ma and pa retail investors.

[minimoke]

I'm pretty sure it's an out flow of speculative funds from Pushpay into Afterpay.

Also, why risk your money here when you can get better returns with the FANG stocks and no risk.

The drop below the book build price is a huge bear signal.

Without the NASDAQ listing and only a handful of institutional investors, there's not alot of rich pockets to take up the slack. Not alot of activity on HotCopper either. Who's left, mom-and-pa NZ retail holders?Price is down a little over 10% of the book build benchmark.
I can only speculate on this fall. Perhaps its profit takers. perhaps its insiders with a whiff of the 1/4ly announcement due next week. Perhaps a reflection that overall market is also down a fair bit over the past month. Perhasp its shorters up to tricks.

Given the speculaiton I don't see the drop as a huge bear signal.

I'll wait for next weeks results before finger heads towards panic button.

[BlackPeter]

I'm pretty sure it's an out flow of speculative funds from Pushpay into Afterpay.

Also, why risk your money here when you can get better returns with the FANG stocks and no risk.

The drop below the book build price is a huge bear signal.

Without the NASDAQ listing and only a handful of institutional investors, there's not alot of rich pockets to take up the slack. Not alot of activity on HotCopper either. Who's left, mom-and-pa NZ retail holders?

Not sure about Afterpay ... though expect a hype bubble there (hopefully not followed by a BIG slump). Anyway - that's a discussion for a different thread.

Not sure either, whether the fundamentals for PPH changed in any way (they never looked good in my view) - but maybe it is now more investors who realize what fast dropping growth rates do to a growth based investment proposition.

Agree - the TA does not look good, though at least they are still above MA200 (but just ...).

As for Mom and pa investors ... in the last annual report did the 20 largest holders hold more than 78.5% of all shares. While some of them might be as well moms and /or pas, are these really mom and pa investors?

9827

[winner69]

Hey Ogg, you given up on Comvita yet or still dabbling in them

[ShouldHaveHeld]

The industry has moved away from simple, single use, button apps. It's more about AI and cloud integration and trying to align all the technologies together into a smoother, more customer friendly integration. Having to install an app, sign up, load your credit card, and push buttons is a legacy platform - it's old tech!



I do not see how button apps could be old tech? You can have what ever tech you like behind a single button. It is not necessary to throw in the latest tech just because it is trending or perceived to be the future. I certainly would not want AI predicting when I want to donate? What if i did not want to donate that day? And I am pretty sure that button apps are pretty customer friendly, especially when it is well designed.

[nomis]

Ogg talked a huge game with CVT in recent months also only to sell out after making some gains before the anticipated drop in price.

[hardt]

Looks like this one trick pony is running out of tricks (*sips hot Milo)...

Let's not forget that this company is nothing more than a stupid button app, operating in a niche of a niche. Founder has bailed and is sitting on a beach somewhere. The broker pump has ended as more retail holders pile in. How long before the other founder bails I wonder? This is going the way of the dodo. It was cool in 2012, but now it's old tech.

This is no Afterpay, far from it. Afterpay actually provides a service and has a business model. Pushpay is the type of crap that a 14 year old would come up with in high school. The only reason why this stock has been somewhat successful is that it somehow got thrown in with the other "high growth tech stocks". Yes, it has had an impressive "revenue" (churn) but why has the long term outlook on this stock not reflected it's short term performance, as it has with other tech stocks? It's because smart people are slowing realising that this is nothing more than a fad and are bailing.

If this company was any good it would have gotten to $10B already, which by today's global standards is small. It's not, it's at only $1b and dropping. As the saying goes, easy come easy go. My guess, is that this will be acquired for like $500m tops, sometime in the next 2-3 years, if it's lucky. Either that or a complete 'My Space' type wipe out.

This is no AfterPay or Affirm or LayBuy or PartPay or FuturePay or OxiPay or... get my gist.
I do resonate with your support of APT and their offering, however, don't try to claim they have an idea a 12 year old couldn't come up with... they are simply executing the idea that wasn't theirs extremely well.










Yes APT is doing well, so is everyone else in this space.

[minimoke]

The problem is that it can't. Why? Because it's built on technology from 2012 and it's not able to adopt to future technologies, specifically AI and the cloud. l?

Im not a techy so most of this I mumbo jumbo to me. But my understanding of the "cloud" is that it is just an off site server / computer. Hasn't PPH adopted this already?

[blobbles]

I am amazed at the number of investors on here that haven't even downloaded the app and used it to donate money themselves. Nothing like first hand research to show you the experience and many charities are on the app, not just churches.

I am working on the leading edge of the tech field and can tell you Ogg is right regarding the tech. It's old school and easy to replicate and replace. They now don't have first mover advantage. I suspect without a substantial upgrade of their platform their NASDAQ listing would have fallen flat as investors in the US are all about new tech. This move, their failure to move with the times and loss of their founder were big flags to me so I bailed too.

One aspect they should be investigating is how to use their data better - its ripe for graph database BI. But instead they seem to be more a sales company now more than anything else, selling an old /easily replaceable product in a fickle market.

[kiora]

I am amazed at the number of investors on here that haven't even downloaded the app and used it to donate money themselves. Nothing like first hand research to show you the experience and many charities are on the app, not just churches.

I am working on the leading edge of the tech field and can tell you Ogg is right regarding the tech. It's old school and easy to replicate and replace. They now don't have first mover advantage. I suspect without a substantial upgrade of their platform their NASDAQ listing would have fallen flat as investors in the US are all about new tech. This move, their failure to move with the times and loss of their founder were big flags to me so I bailed too.

One aspect they should be investigating is how to use their data better - its ripe for graph database BI. But instead they seem to be more a sales company now more than anything else, selling an old /easily replaceable product in a fickle market.

Me too,too many red flags.This doesn't mean it won't go alright though.Time will tell.
I've bailed early before but sometimes best to leave something in it for the next investor.

[Putty]

Correct. They moved onto the Amazon Web Services already.

"Another speaker, Josh Robb, vice president of engineering at Pushpay, says the company moved its entire build pipeline to AWS." From https://www.cio.co.nz/article/620087/new-rules-transformation-innovation-competition/

[BlackPeter]

Are you referring to ASX:BIG? I predicted that fall months before it collapsed.

Oggede was my account on HC: https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/my-big-review-on-big-review-tv.3669144/

I did ... tongue firmly in cheek.

[drcjp]

Wow. Have the NZX finally grown some teeth? https://www.nzx.com/announcements/321300
This stock has been bouncing around like rubber ball all year - just like ATM did and we know where that eventually ended up....

[minimoke]

I am amazed at the number of investors on here that haven't even downloaded the app and used it to donate money themselves. Nothing like first hand research to show you the experience and many charities are on the app, not just churches. .Maybe its because there aint than many NZ charities on there. I sure as heck not giving to Destiny Church just to try out an App!. This doesn't bother me - I am not much interested in them spending there sales / marketing resource on a small pool like NZ

[minimoke]

Wow. Have the NZX finally grown some teeth? https://www.nzx.com/announcements/321300
This stock has been bouncing around like rubber ball all year - just like ATM did and we know where that eventually ended up....
I bet PPH are quaking in their boots. You should see the penalty applied to RBC for its non-response to the 18 May price enquiry.

[blobbles]

Maybe its because there aint than many NZ charities on there. I sure as heck not giving to Destiny Church just to try out an App!. This doesn't bother me - I am not much interested in them spending there sales / marketing resource on a small pool like NZ

They have UNICEF and the Red Cross which I can't imagine people being too precious about giving to.

[minimoke]

They have UNICEF and the Red Cross which I can't imagine people being too precious about giving to.Neither are on my list of charities.

But it does highlight a problem for charities. If you do a search for "NZ" or "New Zealand" to find NZ related charities you wont bring up UNICEF. Customers need to think a bit more on how they set their end up. Or PPH should be giving them this advice

Where the App could get "smarter' is a search function so I could search charities near me. I might like to give to the local plunket group or Battered Wives Shelter, if they were registered.

[Entrep]

You don't need to actually proceed and donate money to check out the app.

[Chanchay]

The funny thing is that I've never downloaded or used the app either, lol. If you know enough about technology you don't need to. You can just piece together knowledge and form a consensus about how it likely works.

Tech investing isn't about understanding how something works. It's about understanding how something will likely work in the future.

Ogg you are right, it’s totally fine to not try out technology first hand.

However if you are going to have opinions as strong as yours and express them so vocally, it would probably be good if you did have some first hand experience.

Regardless I enjoy your comments and treat them as if you are ‘red hatting’ the often very positive sentiments of PPH found on this forum. I treat yours (the negative) and others (the positive) with a grain of salt.

Really highlights the ol DYOR mantra

[Nigelk]

Religious congregations receive the largest share of American charitable giving. They received 32 percent of all charitable donations in 2016, according to the most recent estimates from Giving USA 2017. Giving to religion totaled $122.94 billion

[Chinesekiwi]

According to the Economist Magazine (issue 9094 2 - 8 June)

Americans gave some $390b to charities in 2016.

$280b came from individuals and of this $120b went to religious charities as noted by Nigelk.

Damn those churches do well.


Religious congregations receive the largest share of American charitable giving. They received 32 percent of all charitable donations in 2016, according to the most recent estimates from Giving USA 2017. Giving to religion totaled $122.94 billion

[smartbomb]

A bit of short interest perhaps, but this is just ASX as of yesterday.

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=pph

[minimoke]

Oh dear. A trade at $4.10. I smell another price enquiry on its way.

[nomis]

Oh dear. A trade at $4.10. I smell another price enquiry on its way.

I sold out half my holding Just now, Happy with the return. Will continue to watch with a smaller holding.

[drcjp]

Oh dear. A trade at $4.10. I smell another price enquiry on its way.
Nope, why would they? :) They don't report shorts and this thing has been pummelled for it on a monthly basis all year.

[minimoke]

Slight bit of positive movement ahead of tomorrows announcement. Midday will be very telling.

[winner69]

Clare Capital have done some research on SaaS companies and found that this formula is pretty good -

EV/Revenue = 25 * (LTM Growth Rate%) + 1 ; with a margin of error of +/- 7.


Push $70m revenues and 100% growth would be on a multiple of 26 ......ie share price in excess of $9

Even if you used net sales (less card company cut) it would be way over $6

On the chart Clare showed plotting numerous global companies Push is a real outlier .....so so relatively cheap.

[minimoke]

Clare Capital have done some research on SaaS companies and found that this formula is pretty good -

EV/Revenue = 25 * (LTM Growth Rate%) + 1 ; with a margin of error of +/- 7.



Push $70m revenues and 100% growth would be on a multiple of 26 ......ie share price in excess of $9.
For context, price currently $4.14

[winner69]

For context, price currently $4.14

Even if you go a year out with revenues $110m say ie growth 57% you get a ‘value’ over $8

Push might be slowing growing into a reasonable valuation instead of remaining ‘cheap’

[RalphWiggum]

Some curious bids at/post closing; one being 8c above asking price. Makes you wonder how many people get to see tomorrows market update before us plebs do..

Will be interesting tomorrow. Stop-loss in place in case things don't go as hoped.

[minimoke]

Some curious bids at/post closing; one being 8c above asking price. Makes you wonder how many people get to see tomorrows market update before us plebs do..

Will be interesting tomorrow. Stop-loss in place in case things don't go as hoped.
Closed solidly at $4.15. Up 1% for the day. Yup - tomorrow will be interesting.

[winner69]

I think that there will be very good news in the announcement

If they hint at full year revenue of $115m to $120m for F19 wow that’ll set the market alight

Looking forward to it

[BlackPeter]

I think that there will be very good news in the announcement

If they hint at full year revenue of $115m to $120m for F19 wow that’ll set the market alight

Looking forward to it

Wouldn't this be just a mere 15 or 20% annual revenue growth? Hardly worthwhile mentioning compared with all these stellar numbers they used to throw around.

You are saying they are already consolidating? Would make it hard for them to ever earn their still stellar market cap.

[winner69]

F18 revenue was $70m so $120m would be more than solid

[minimoke]

I'm not getting excited. There have been no market announcements suggesting a large variance.

[winner69]

I'm not getting excited. There have been no market announcements suggesting a large variance.

Only guidance has been

“Pushpay is providing total revenue guidance of between US$20.5 million and US$22.0 million for the quarter ending 30 June 2018. Pushpay remains in a position to reach its target of breakeven on a monthly cash flow basis prior to the end of calendar 2018.

They’ll get the $22m easy easy but hope they say something about the rest of the financial year

[minimoke]

They’ll get the $22m easy easy but hope they say something about the rest of the financial year
Not quite: "

Chris Heaslip, Pushpay's CEO and Co-founder said, "Pushpay is pleased to


deliver a strong first quarter of the financial year, increasing total


revenue to US$21.4 million, an increase of 52.6% on the previous


corresponding period.




and "

"Pushpay remains in a position to reach its target of breakeven on a monthly


cash flow basis prior to the end of calendar year 2018."

[winner69]

All good ......might see share price $5 this month

[minimoke]

And the new guidance "

Pushpay is providing total revenue


guidance of between US$21.8 million and US$23.3 million for the quarter


ending 30 September 2018." up 38.7 on previous corresponding quarter

[BlackPeter]

F18 revenue was $70m so $120m would be more than solid

Was it? 4-traders shows 98.3m sales for FY2018.

http://www.4-traders.com/PUSHPAY-HOLDINGS-LTD-32613790/financials/

Are they wrong or do you refer to some different number?

[sb9]

They seem to be delivering on their targets, all good. Steady as she goes....

[minimoke]

I like goals and I like them in writing. Lets keep a record of this for reference:


"In the medium term, our goal is to reach the milestone of US$10 billion in


Annualised Processing Volume, representing less than 10% of annual giving to


religious organisations in the US.





"In the long term, Pushpay is targeting over 50% of the medium and large


church segments, an opportunity representing over US$1 billion in annual


revenue."



Edit: I would like a definition of "medium term" and "long term". Anyone dialling in today might like to ask.

[sb9]

Latest tech sector performance in US (barring Facebook) should help the overall sector sentiment.

[MikeE]

Disappointing market reaction :t_down:

[minimoke]

Disappointing market reaction :t_down:Happy hour - wait for the Aussies to digest the news and give things a move along.

[winner69]

Was it? 4-traders shows 98.3m sales for FY2018.

http://www.4-traders.com/PUSHPAY-HOLDINGS-LTD-32613790/financials/

Are they wrong or do you refer to some different number?


Push report in US$ and that's what most of us use when it comes to Push .....so US$70m to US$120m is big increase

That 98.3 is NZD

I think you already knew that

...but to save any confusion I'll try to remember to put an US in front of the $

[minimoke]

Disappointing market reaction :t_down:
Awe - C'mon folks. There was a teeny bit of price upswing in anticipation of announcement . Certainly not enough to over cook price. Today's announcement doesn't justify dropping price to $4.00!

[44wishlists]

Another promise failed by the director. They previously announced the company would be breakeven in Dec 17. Eight months passed, and still not breaking even. Don't think I will invest in PPH in the near future.

Disc. Sold out at $4.2

[dreamcatcher]

Today GS report on CL-buy TP NZ$5.80

Price drop ........... just a few buyers taking a divvy from a none divvy stock

[kiora]

Today GS report on CL-buy TP NZ$5.80

Price drop ........... just a few buyers taking a divvy from a none divvy stock

And bots working big time

[drcjp]

And bots working big time
Yup. Folk are building positions in a rather blatant fashion.

[BlackPeter]

Push report in US$ and that's what most of us use when it comes to Push .....so US$70m to US$120m is big increase

That 98.3 is NZD

I think you already knew that

...but to save any confusion I'll try to remember to put an US in front of the $

Actually - hardly following them these days ... i.e. I was not trying to pull your leg ;), but yes - US$ 70m roughly NZ$ 100m, i.e. makes sense.

Looking at market reaction - looks like market not happy or maybe lost as well track of the currency; Time for PPH to define again a totally new and outrageously creative KPI? I guess - this strategy used to work for them a couple of years, why not building on it?

[ratkin]

I do not know anything about these things, for all I know they sell candles.
Maybe someone could enlighten me on the following part of the report

increased its Customer base to 7,352, an increase of 3.1% over the
year to 30 June 2018. As at 30 June 2018, 14 of the top 20 and 55 of the top
100 largest churches in the US have chosen to partner with Pushpay

If nearly 75% of the top 20 churches and over half of the top 100 churches are already
customers then where else is there to go? Very impressive totals but must be nearly at saturation
point. Or am I missing something.

[BlackPeter]

I do not know anything about these things, for all I know they sell candles.
Maybe someone could enlighten me on the following part of the report

increased its Customer base to 7,352, an increase of 3.1% over the
year to 30 June 2018. As at 30 June 2018, 14 of the top 20 and 55 of the top
100 largest churches in the US have chosen to partner with Pushpay

If nearly 75% of the top 20 churches and over half of the top 100 churches are already
customers then where else is there to go? Very impressive totals but must be nearly at saturation
point. Or am I missing something.






Great observation! Obviously - they still can (and probably will) increase the percentage of parishioners in each church to change their givings from e.g. throwing buttons onto the plate to proudly depressing the give button on the PushPay app.

As well - they hope for each parishioner to push more often and larger amounts ...

But yes ... not sure whether only the sky is the limit to this approach;); Personally - while giving to a church (don't ask ...), do I not feel that PushPay would solve any of my problems ;);

Ah yes - and then there are obviously all the other markets they have not yet embarked where people could allow them to clip the ticket as well: education (school donations), any other NGO's. Maybe push the money to the beggars in town? Who knows ...

It will take lots of pushes for them to earn their NZ$1b market cap ...

[RalphWiggum]

1. Virtually no growth
2. Struggling to break even
3. $1b market cap
4. Aging technology
5. Senior management shakeup
6. Stagnant share price
7. No NASDAQ listing
8. Co founder bailing


I was a believer in PushPay until I read this morning that they had only increased the customer base by 3.1% over the year to June 2018. This sent alarm bells ringing and was the last straw after the pulling of the NASDAQ listing and pushing back of break even date.

Funnily enough when I went to send through a sell order, my very recently updated stop loss had already been triggered and my entire holding sold at $4.02. Ended up making 39% on my investment so happy with that.

PPH is not the next XRO (like I thought it would be when I invested). Good luck to all holders.

[winner69]

Besides mini we don’t seem to have many cheerleaders on here

Everybody taken their profits and run?

[minimoke]

Besides mini we don’t seem to have many cheerleaders on here

Everybody taken their profits and run?I remain well in positive territory and still a wee way to go before stop loss is hit. I think I have another quarter left in this stock unless there is growth. Two things I want to hear: dates for the targets - until then they are not a goal. And expansion into countries other than US and expansion into other markets. If this doesnt happen then they have topped out and only one way to go.

I have had a ghastly July - all stocks substantially hit. Portfolio now sitting just above where it was in June. So I put this partly into whole of market sentiment. Not just PPH sentiment.

[nomis]

I'm still holding a small amount, I sold 30% @ 3.90 in lead up to results and 50% at 4.10. still holding the remainder and plan to do so for the next 1/4

[Jonboyz]

I sold out of PPH completely last week. The technology has very little barrier to another company coming in. The only advantage they have/had is targetting churches - that is easily lost when competitors change their sales strategy. ie Paywave, Apple Pay and others...

[sb9]

Besides mini we don’t seem to have many cheerleaders on here

Everybody taken their profits and run?

I'm still in too, looks to me as though market is pricing in a softer Sep quarter going by the what was said in conf call.

[iceman]

I’ve been selling off and on since January ranging between 4.03-4.37. Still hold 15% of my original holding and likely to hold onto it for awhile to see how this plays out, despite being unimpressed with the latest numbers. Been a great run having bought most between 1.80-2.05. But really am struggling now to justify the current valuation.

[Leftfield]

I’ve been selling off and on since January ranging between 4.03-4.37. Still hold 15% of my original holding and likely to hold onto it for awhile to see how this plays out, despite being unimpressed with the latest numbers. Been a great run having bought most between 1.80-2.05. But really am struggling now to justify the current valuation.

I'm with you.....PPH was my biggest holding after ATM, but given the uncertainty this year, I've been reducing down to a zero holding (as of yesterday) and pocketed av gains of around 60%.

That said, I doubt it is all doom and gloom for PPH, there are some things to watch in the future that could see PPH change and grow well.

1.) I noted in the recent report that PPH is talking about "consolidating its branding around Push Pay," and diminishing its other brands such as 'e-church'.
2.) If you look at PPH's new web site (https://pushpay.com) you will note that PPH is clearly now targeting, schools and charities (as well as churches) 'send money in under 10 seconds, no queues, no forms, no hassles....'

In short, PPH appears to be moving away from its reliance on the faith sector and is concentrating on being a speedy no hassles payment option for churches, schools and charities. This will leave behind church only services such as https://get.tithe.ly

Will it all work? I don't know, there is a lot of competition in the 'payments' market. I'm happy to sit on the sidelines and watch for a while...... (now back to my holiday!!)

[visionary]

So, there is a considerable amount of bearish bias in the comments here within the past 24 hours.

If, the target market of religious giving is largely saturated, then it seems there are decisions to make - an expansion of the business, focussing on a new target market, or on new geographic locations?

- There are several large African countries, for which religion is a major factor - you would be surprised how advanced some of these countries are in terms of technology and banking also.
- Event "on the door" ticket purchases for mid-large scale events, another possibility?

It means money to be spent, but huge potential.

With the current position of the company needs to establish if this will turn profitable, or what changes need to be made to become profitable. With the majority of the market captivated or aware of the offering, I would suggest the company should be looking to profitability at this point.

I know less about the product than I would like to know, so if anyone would like to educate me or promote corrections on my notes I would welcome them.

[winner69]

Lowest price since last Christmas and nearly 20% of its highs ...things are getting serious

Maybe nobody believes the hype anymore

[minimoke]

Lowest price since last Christmas and nearly 20% of its highs 15% .

[winner69]

15% .


17% .....close to 20%

[minimoke]

17% .....close to 20%even 17.4% is closer to 15%

[dreamcatcher]

Still holding not sold/bought more.............

[BlackPeter]

Still holding not sold/bought more.............

You must be a brave man ... sitting now on the MA200. Could turn ugly really fast.

There is some saying about drinking and buying in a downtrend ;), but then - if everybody would follow it, there would not be a downtrend :);.

[dreamcatcher]

You must be a brave man ... sitting now on the MA200. Could turn ugly really fast.

There is some saying about drinking and buying in a downtrend ;), but then - if everybody would follow it, there would not be a downtrend :);.

Perhaps I should re-phrase ................"Still holding not sold or bought more"

[Lorne Ranger]

Congrats, as ever, to those who sold out at a profit, always a good thing. Personally Im hanging in there, I see no need to sell and especially at these discounted prices.

Ignoring one or two hysterically bearish comments here over last couple of days, I think the company has done extremely well to get to where it is, with the market share they now enjoy in US. Not an easy market, just ask Xero! I would like to know their ambition for other areas and markets for sure, but I highly doubt they will be sitting on their hands doing nothing, and while they are boosted by profitability they can really start pushing the boat out. I understand the short term gloom, (based on client growth rather than revenue I believe), but I'm not convinced enough has changed to warrant abandonment. It seems far better run than Diligent was, with a similarly replicatable product and I still made a killing there, and with far more stress! Brings tears to my eyes just remembering that stock. So, battle-hardened, I remain in.

[bullfrog]

Totally agree with you Lorne Ranger. It’s a simple product that works, a niche product that is scaleable to other markets, countries. Appreciate bearish comments, especially ogg, makes one review assumptions. Yesterday’s platform, yes, most likely, not sure how many versions of windows ive run since my first computer, don’t care, and I believe most users of pph will not care either.
It is a crowded market, but many offerings need the customer to buy into their suite of products, too much organisational change.
This is when pph have to prove they are agile, I think they can do it, so sticking with them.

[BlackPeter]

Mmh - hysteric bears? Might be worthwhile to revisit the WYN thread or the PEB thread to properly calibrate into which phase this stock seems to move.

But - actually I don't think the question is whether they can make it (i.e. turn at some stage cash positive) or not, but what is their chance to achieve the growth rates the market priced into their current SP and over what time period can they do that?

Ask yourself - what is the chance some other payment system will over time win the race (there are plenty around). What would that do to PPH's chances to payback their huge market cap ever? Is this risk reflected in the current SP? I don't think so ... so - what possibly can go wrong?

It just feels they are priced to perfection ... and even than (if everything goes to plan) I'd doubt they would be worth a billion dollars market cap.

[smartbomb]

A good presentation I thought on the nuts and bolts IT aspect of the operation

https://www.spreedly.com/2018/07/13/no-payment-left-behind-summary-of-pushpay-at-paymentsfn/

[winner69]

Market cap of PPH has recently been between US$700m to US$800m (current US$710m)

From that bullish GS report (the $5.40 share price target one) expected cash flows over the next 7 years are US$150m (that’s Present Value discounted from US$248m) ...if every thing goes right

From an owners perspective one might ask — Do I take the US$700m plus now or collect the US$150 cash flows over the next 7 years and hope that I still have a decent business after that 7 years to make up the difference

Maybe that’s the question Eliot Crowther asked himself?

[BlackPeter]

Market cap of PPH has recently been between US$700m to US$800m (current US$710m)

From that bullish GS report (the $5.40 share price target one) expected cash flows over the next 7 years are US$150m (that’s Present Value discounted from US$248m) ...if every thing goes right

From an owners perspective one might ask — Do I take the US$700m plus now or collect the US$150 cash flows over the next 7 years and hope that I still have a decent business after that 7 years to make up the difference

Maybe that’s the question Eliot Crowther asked himself?

Outstanding question ... maybe something every PPH holder should ask him/ herself :);

[winner69]

Outstanding question ... maybe something every PPH holder should ask him/ herself :);

I wonder what most would answer?

[BlackPeter]

I wonder what most would answer?

That's the easy bit ... but to find an answer they first need to ask themselves :D;

[gbogo]

so overwhelmingly bearish sentiment on here... must be time to load up again!

seriously though - the small growth in customer numbers? they said theybarw moving to a field sales model and targeting just larger customers - so one could reasonably expect a fall in customer numbers and it wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing.

[Lorne Ranger]

seriously though - the small growth in customer numbers? they said theybarw moving to a field sales model and targeting just larger customers - so one could reasonably expect a fall in customer numbers and it wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing.

Where did you read/hear that? If so it would give more weight to the revenue figures....

[drcjp]

Market cap of PPH has recently been between US$700m to US$800m (current US$710m)

From that bullish GS report (the $5.40 share price target one) expected cash flows over the next 7 years are US$150m (that’s Present Value discounted from US$248m) ...if every thing goes right

From an owners perspective one might ask — Do I take the US$700m plus now or collect the US$150 cash flows over the next 7 years and hope that I still have a decent business after that 7 years to make up the difference

Maybe that’s the question Eliot Crowther asked himself?

Its possible the question and answer might be simpler than that.


A little birdie tells me that the process of divorce can be very ugly. Ex partners inevitably simply want cash and as much of it as they feel they're entitled too and often plenty more.

[minimoke]

I wonder what most would answer?I hold while I still have gain and my stop loss isn't hit. Might happen in 1 month, might happen in 7 years.

[Beagle]

Small growth in customer numbers supports the theory that the low hanging fruit has already been picked.
Fang stocks that can't show an ongoing runway of high growth have been getting smashed in the U.S.
Disc: Don't own.

[gbogo]

from last week’s announcement: “We continue to experience quarter over quarter growth in our field sales initiative and deal sizes continue to increase, validating the assumption that face-to-face interaction allows us to better communicate the value of our solutions to support a higher price point.”

[gbogo]

Small growth in customer numbers supports the theory that the low hanging fruit has already been picked.
Fang stocks that can't show an ongoing runway of high growth have been getting smashed in the U.S.
Disc: Don't own.

low-hanging fruit picked? or an enviable dominant market share, which as the incumbent, allows then to more easily upsell and cross-sell additional services while reducing their costs (as keeping a customer is much cheaper than acquiring a new one..)

[winner69]

from last week’s announcement: “We continue to experience quarter over quarter growth in our field sales initiative and deal sizes continue to increase, validating the assumption that face-to-face interaction allows us to better communicate the value of our solutions to support a higher price point.”

Good eh ......but you really would hope this is the case anyway

[minimoke]

low-hanging fruit picked? or an enviable dominant market share, which as the incumbent, allows then to more easily upsell and cross-sell additional services while reducing their costs (as keeping a customer is much cheaper than acquiring a new one..) I'm pretty sure the low hanging fruit in the USA faith market has been picked. I am happy for the moment to sit back and let them explore other fruit in other markets. If they don't then I'l be out.

[moka]

so overwhelmingly bearish sentiment on here... must be time to load up again!

seriously though - the small growth in customer numbers? they said theybarw moving to a field sales model and targeting just larger customers - so one could reasonably expect a fall in customer numbers and it wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing.

Yes, buy in gloom, sell in boom.

PPH changed their sales strategy last year to focus on medium and large sized customers. So growth in customer numbers will be less. They added one more of the top 20 churches in June quarter - now 14 out of 20.

16 November 2017 Interim Results Investor Briefing Presentation -

"Sales strategy
Pushpay continues to refine its relational approach to a targeted account based and field sales strategy, focusing more heavily on medium and large sized Customers. We have found that larger Customers: invest more in implementation and are therefore more likely to implement correctly and successfully, leading to greater adoption of Pushpay's offerings; are easier to service long term; are less likely to churn than smaller Customers; and typically generate increased Subscription and Volume Fees over time."

[BlackPeter]

Ouch - SP dropped below the MA 200. I guess some investors might still wait for a confirmation of the downtrend (give it another couple of days), but signs are hard to ignore.

At the end of the day - everybody's individual choice ... and sure - trends can change anytime. It is just - they normally need a trigger to do that (change back to uptrend) - and the fundamentals don't really justify the current lofty share price.

Hype can push a SP really strong upwards - but the effect works in both directions ... ;);

Take care out there - its a dangerous world.

[winner69]

Ouch - SP dropped below the MA 200. I guess some investors might still wait for a confirmation of the downtrend (give it another couple of days), but signs are hard to ignore.

At the end of the day - everybody's individual choice ... and sure - trends can change anytime. It is just - they normally need a trigger to do that (change back to uptrend) - and the fundamentals don't really justify the current lofty share price.

Hype can push a SP really strong upwards - but the effect works in both directions ... ;);

Take care out there - its a dangerous world.

Yes BP — yes, trend changes normally need a trigger to do that (change back to uptrend)

Nothing on the horizon it seems to be that trigger

And mini ..share price getting closer to that 20% of its high. Another 10 cents should see to that

[minimoke]

I hold while I still have gain and my stop loss isn't hit. Might happen in 1 month, might happen in 7 years.Stop loss hit. I'm out.

[Beagle]

Down over 6% on the ASX today.

It's safe to say that the $4 support level is now broken. Alot of people who invested over the last 7-8 months are now sitting on losses. This could get alot uglier fast. I don't really see alot of potential news flow over the short term that could reverse this downtrend. I think this will fall down to the $2.50-$3 level, that represents a fair risk/reward ratio.

The $4.04 offload by the co-founder, is now looking like the greatest hospital pass ever! Those 19 institutional investors were likely just irrelevant nobodies, who are no more wiser than the average user here.

What management need to do now is get to break even ASAP, then come up with a decent long term diversified growth plan. Either that or voluntary escrow of shares or reaffirmation of support from existing or new corner stone investors. The market is now getting really spooked, and it needs reassurance that the ship is on track.

Good post. That sell-down had "the party is over" written all over it ! It certainly doesn't help that they've changed the way they measure growth so many times in the last year I have lost count. If I didn't know better I'd be thinking they're trying doing their absolute best to try and disguise the fact that growth is really slowing. With growth in large church numbers slowing dramatically, (fee rise in recent months was the major factor behind revenue growth but there's a limit to how many times you can put your fees up), if they can't show real traction with their app with other user groups then shareholders could be in for a really "interesting" ride going forward.

In the next wee while we could see one or more of the major shareholders try and step into the market and stop this slide...and that might be a good opportunity to ask yourself if you still believe in the PPH growth story ?

[silu]

Stop loss hit. I'm out.

Disciplined. I like it. Any dithering probably would have cost you another 10c/share?

[BlackPeter]

Stop loss hit. I'm out.

Lucky you. Looks like the good old MA200 is used by more than one investor as stop loss. SP now down to 350 and hardly any buyers left.

[minimoke]

Disciplined. I like it. Any dithering probably would have cost you another 10c/share?Its all very easy to get caught up in hype and stuff. A stop loss just helps remove emotion and work more objectively at preserving capital. I am not unhappy with the stake I held in PPH.

[minimoke]

Lucky you. Looks like the good old MA200 is used by more than one investor as stop loss. SP now down to 350 and hardly any buyers left.It wasn't luck. I made a decision based on a prearranged plan. I just executed the plan.

[sb9]

It wasn't luck. I made a decision based on a prearranged plan. I just executed the plan.

It'll be interesting to see what shorts position was y'day on ASX.

[minimoke]

It'll be interesting to see what shorts position was y'day on ASX.The shortcoming with a stop loss is that it looks only at one number. Not all the rest of the market sentiment and surrounding noise. It could well play out that my stop loss was just the bottom of the range and maybe I should have held for a cent more. As per usual hindsight will be an excellent measure.

[drcjp]

It'll be interesting to see what shorts position was y'day on ASX.

The shorters have had fun with this all year. They'll be loving this.
Must be a few puckering ....incters having bought in at $4+ right now

[Beagle]

Good post. That sell-down had "the party is over" written all over it ! It certainly doesn't help that they've changed the way they measure growth so many times in ...
In the next wee while we could see one or more of the major shareholders try and step into the market and stop this slide...and that might be a good opportunity to ask yourself if you still believe in the PPH growth story ?

Solid bidding now at $3.50. Might be a good time to ask yourself the hard question.

[winner69]

Good post. That sell-down had "the party is over" written all over it ! It certainly doesn't help that they've changed the way they measure growth so many times in ...
In the next wee while we could see one or more of the major shareholders try and step into the market and stop this slide...and that might be a good opportunity to ask yourself if you still believe in the PPH growth story ?

Solid bidding now at $3.50. Might be a good time to ask yourself the hard question.

They see a bargain when one is on offer

[whatsup]

$3.18 and falling !

[Beagle]

[QUOTE=winner69;723909

They see a bargain when one is on offer[/QUOTE]

Like Elon Musk who reckons Tesla are such a bargain he'll take them private at $U.S.420 ? Stupid bean counters just don't understand brand value do they !...they're still silly enough to believe earnings are what really matters, dinosaurs eh ?

[winner69]

Like Elon Musk who reckons Tesla are such a bargain he'll take them private at $U.S.420 ? Stupid bean counters just don't understand brand value do they !...they're still silly enough to believe earnings are what really matters, dinosaurs eh ?

Cartoon just for you Mr Beagle

[Beagle]

LOL that's a good one !

[sb9]

$3.18 and falling !

Are you referring to ASX price??

[minimoke]

$3.18 and falling !NZ$3.44 is lowest so far today

[winner69]

LOL that's a good one !

Pin it on your wall mate ...in case you ever get seduced by amazing brand metrics or those fantastic things like ACMR, ARPC, CAC etc

[whatsup]

NZ$3.44 is lowest so far today

Sorry ASX = $3.10 at its low !

[pg0220]

I sold out at $3.75, regretting that I could have waited for another couple of hours when it went up to $3.85 again. Now I am glad even with $3.75 price! The earning forecast from the GS report was really based on that they could attract more attendees from each church to use apps. I used to go to church and know that most of the givings are actually from a small portion of the attendees. When I think about whether they will use the app for their giving when they know quite a lot of portions will be paid to the vendor, nah, couldn't really imagine that. It may be different since the church I went was a different nationality based from the major churches in US though. I'm still happy with profits I've made since I bought in when it was low $2.

[Lorne Ranger]

Too bad Trump's tax cuts were only for the rich and not the peasants otherwise there really would be more to put in the collection plate of each church!

[Ggcc]

Too bad Trump's tax cuts were only for the rich and not the peasants otherwise there really would be more to put in the collection plate of each church!
I have learned that investing in stocks that involved no profit were really bad for me and I chose not to invest in these high hype companies anymore!! I want to see the break even before investing. Since it got to $4+ I saw the share price not sustainable and the company was massively over valued. Great for the traders, not for the longterm holders until it makes solid profits.

[Lorne Ranger]

I have learned that investing in stocks that involved no profit were really bad for me and I chose not to invest in these high hype companies anymore!! I want to see the break even before investing. Since it got to $4+ I saw the share price not sustainable and the company was massively over valued. Great for the traders, not for the longterm holders until it makes solid profits.

I thought PPH were predicting break even/profit in the next year? Your investment policy is a sound one, cant argue with that, but it would rule out quite a few stocks, XRO is the obvious one. But like I say, your call and still a fair few stocks to chose from.

[Ggcc]

I thought PPH were predicting break even/profit in the next year? Your investment policy is a sound one, cant argue with that, but it would rule out quite a few stocks, XRO is the obvious one. But like I say, your call and still a fair few stocks to chose from.
It baffles me that Xero which in itself is a great product, is a company that has an annual turnover of $400+ million fy2018 of what ATM should make in profit fy19?????

Something does not compute...


Sure one can argue these businesses are not the same and they are not, but ones makes a profit almost as big as your turnover and (ATM)is still growing faster than Xero seems to be growing...

PPH is only small now and I hope they keep growing well and last long on the NZX for the future. I remember WYN told me they would be break even by the end of the year and then told us sorry we are now in voluntary liquidation, that did not work well for me and I lost big time..

Oh the fun of investing verses the gambling of winning. Best of luck to all holders, but Im not getting involved.

[RupertBear]

It baffles me that Xero which in itself is a great product, is a company that has an annual turnover of $400+ million fy2018 of what ATM should make in profit fy19?????

Something does not compute...


Sure one can argue these businesses are not the same and they are not, but ones makes a profit almost as big as your turnover and (ATM)is still growing faster than Xero seems to be growing...

PPH is only small now and I hope they keep growing well and last long on the NZX for the future. I remember WYN told me they would be break even by the end of the year and then told us sorry we are now in voluntary liquidation, that did not work well for me and I lost big time..

Oh the fun of investing verses the gambling of winning. Best of luck to all holders, but Im not getting involved.

I got badly stung holding WYN as well :( I held PPH for a while but got out recently on the cusp of it falling. No more holding and watching the ship go down for me. It may resurface but I am happy to watch from the sidelines for now.

[sb9]

Better looking day so far, could be that some big fella was looking to get out over past few days. Looks as though selling not instigated by shorts going by their numbers over last few days.

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=pph

[pg0220]

I thought PPH were predicting break even/profit in the next year? Your investment policy is a sound one, cant argue with that, but it would rule out quite a few stocks, XRO is the obvious one. But like I say, your call and still a fair few stocks to chose from.
They are aiming to cash flow break even, not the income statement break even.

[winner69]

Heading to 350 again

Expect a few will soon come out and boost the share price again ......can’t let it sink too far can we.

[whatsup]

Heading to 350 again

Expect a few will soon come out and boost the share price again ......can’t let it sink too far can we.

Don't you mean $3.00 ?

[Beagle]

Risk of a speeding enquiry I reckon but would be a waste of time. Company would say everything is fine and dandy.

[minimoke]

Heading to 350 again

Expect a few will soon come out and boost the share price again ......can’t let it sink too far can we.
Nudged $3.45 today before closing at $3.47

[Blendy]

Is this a sale? I couldn't help picking up some more at $3.35 just now. I can't see why there is a big drop today? Is there something I've missed?

[minimoke]

Is this a sale?
Or is it a knife?

[Blendy]

Or is it a knife?
The two biggest questions of the day.....

[minimoke]

The two biggest questions of the day.....If you have your fingers intact in a month you'll know the answer.

[winner69]

Big boys will be out soon to support the share price ....unless they feel despondent their efforts didn’t work last time.

[iceman]

My stoploss hit for the few remaining shares I held in this one. Now all out but has been a good run despite the big recent drop. Not sure where this is heading anymore !

[minimoke]

After buying in at $3.30 I was all out at $3.60. I'm not a trader so the $4.04 did't trigger a sell. But the plummet from there to $3.60 did. I'm not into loosing capital and seeing it hit $3.35 today I'm not regretting the decision and not seeing anything that suggests I should be getting back in.

[Kiwi]

Bought my holding in these for average price of $1.90 about 16 months ago, sold one lot for $4.04 and the remainder for $3.78 two weeks ago. Pleased to be out with a good profit which is now invested in QEX and KTD.

[Ggcc]

An average $5.26 per share valuation....... what a joke. This is why sometimes you don’t use 4traders

[Beagle]

How do you make a small fortune buying stocks in a downtrend ? A. Start with a big fortune.
Seriously I reckon a day of reckoning has come for the metrics these sort of SAAS companies trade on.
Chart looks really ugly. Founder selling out and senior exec's leaving in a hurry and really slow customer growth numbers and lack of NASDAQ listing were all warning signs ! Disc: Sold out completely some time back at $4.15.

[Chanchay]

How do you make a small fortune buying stocks in a downtrend ? A. Start with a big fortune.
Seriously I reckon a day of reckoning has come for the metrics these sort of SAAS companies trade on.
Chart looks really ugly. Founder selling out and senior exec's leaving in a hurry and really slow customer growth numbers and lack of NASDAQ listing were all warning signs ! Disc: Sold out completely some time back at $4.15.

Thats how I saw it too beagle, I got out flat at $4.00, it rebounded after and then dropped away again.

I would consider re-entering at some point.

Like Kiwi I put some of my gains into KTD, however i paid a bit much at $0.37 so saw a similar loss to what I would have experienced with PPH I think.

in the short term, i see PPH going down and in the long term I think it could go either way, who know PPH may prove us wrong but I will watch this one from the sideline for a while.

[King1212]

Thats how I saw it too beagle, I got out flat at $4.00, it rebounded after and then dropped away again.

I would consider re-entering at some point.

Like Kiwi I put some of my gains into KTD, however i paid a bit much at $0.37 so saw a similar loss to what I would have experienced with PPH I think.

in the short term, i see PPH going down and in the long term I think it could go either way, who know PPH may prove us wrong but I will watch this one from the sideline for a while.

oh ..glad to know...I thought I got in too high at 32c....:Dyeah KTD is so cheap at current SP.

i made quiet a bit out PPH...traded couple times n sold out when around $4.30 ish ever since have not touched anyomore as i think it is overvalued...

[BlackPeter]

An average $5.26 per share valuation....... what a joke. This is why sometimes you don’t use 4traders

Actually: 4-traders is only collecting analyst views, they don't make these numbers up by themselves. If you look into the Reuters database or into the Financial Times you get the same numbers. Don't blame 4-traders.

I think the key here is that the quoted number is a "consensus" of exactly two analyst forecasts. With consensus numbers a higher quantity (of analysts) typically equals a higher quality (of prediction accuracy). If you have a company researched only by a very small number of analysts, than some of them might have a conflict of interest anyway (maybe the broker paid to arrange for the last or next CR or paid by the company for the research reprot) and often it is not the most senior analysts either researching the most exotic companies.

Consensus numbers do add value, but they are not always right. I've read a number of academical papers on this subject (and do some measurement myself) - and roughly 60% of consensus numbers come true (i.e. SP reaches the target within 12 months). Means however as well that 40% are wrong. PPH well might be one of these 40%. I am pretty sure it is ;P;

[minimoke]

How is PPH getting a 7.6% lift today on no news and ATM only manages 5.7% on news

[haewai]

Re-rating by RBC capital
https://twitter.com/Filapek/status/1032045830797062144

[winner69]

Re-rating by RBC capital
https://twitter.com/Filapek/status/1032045830797062144

That and insiders supporting the price possible reasons for decent price rise today

Funny game eh

[Beagle]

That and insiders supporting the price possible reasons for decent price rise today

Funny game eh

Quite right. It doesn't take much buying by one of the major shareholders to move the needle and doesn't mean the prospects are any brighter or the SP is representative of value at this level.

[IAK]

Quite right. It doesn't take much buying by one of the major shareholders to move the needle and doesn't mean the prospects are any brighter or the SP is representative of value at this level.

Conversely, it doesn't take much selling to "shake the tree" too.

[minimoke]

9% today - surely thats worth an enquiry?

[nomis]

sweet my sell kicked through at 3.74 today average buy of $1.60 makes me a happy boy. Sold the rest back at $4.00 - Now to look for the next opportunity (lithium mines perhaps??)

[Beagle]

Is this a sale? I couldn't help picking up some more at $3.35 just now. I can't see why there is a big drop today? Is there something I've missed?

Unlike shoe sales you can take this one back and get a refund for the full retail price today..in fact quite probably more than they're really worth :)

[drcjp]

SAAS moved well today as APT moved up as well. Both are obviously in the ASX investor eye and this might partially account for both. ATM tends to move more after a couple days post-figures, but I'm not so sure it will this time. Its a frothy one and its growth is more challenged plus competition is beginning to grow for them.

[moka]

Is this a sale? I couldn't help picking up some more at $3.35 just now. I can't see why there is a big drop today? Is there something I've missed?

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/322759
Well done Blendy

Morgan Stanley now holds 5.564% of PPH. Substantial holding began on 21 August 2018.

[Blendy]

Thank you Moka - it's a ridiculous ride this one! But nice to get it right (for the moment)...

[dreamcatcher]

Looks like someone having a wee nibble this morning 1.3m shares traded already

[RupertBear]

Craigs have started coverage with a strong buy

[dreamcatcher]

Craigs have started coverage with a strong buy

AWESOME ............:t_up:

[Nigelk]

There seems to a lot of confusion about what a customer of PPH is.
After the last quarterly results a lot of people were saying things like "only 3% growth" and "only 8%" in customers despite revenue growth being consistently well ahead of this.
In they early days PPH went for predominantly smaller churches with simpler management structures, where it's easier to get a sale. So low hanging fruit.
They've now got a stated objective of targeting bigger churches.
So theoretically you could have 100 churches with congregations averaging 250 people, then add 1 with a congregation of 25,000 (not unheard of in the US).
Your customer numbers have increased by 1%, but congregation size has gone up by 100%.
Revenue is more aligned with the latter.
Also, you could have 40% of the congregation of a church using Pushpay on day 1, which grows to 80% a year later.
Customer numbers (churches) hasn't increased at all, but monthly user and payment fees has doubled.

[sb9]

There seems to a lot of confusion about what a customer of PPH is.
After the last quarterly results a lot of people were saying things like "only 3% growth" and "only 8%" in customers despite revenue growth being consistently well ahead of this.
In they early days PPH went for predominantly smaller churches with simpler management structures, where it's easier to get a sale. So low hanging fruit.
They've now got a stated objective of targeting bigger churches.
So theoretically you could have 100 churches with congregations averaging 250 people, then add 1 with a congregation of 25,000 (not unheard of in the US).
Your customer numbers have increased by 1%, but congregation size has gone up by 100%.
Revenue is more aligned with the latter.
Also, you could have 40% of the congregation of a church using Pushpay on day 1, which grows to 80% a year later.
Customer numbers (churches) hasn't increased at all, but monthly user and payment fees has doubled.

Very well summed up.

[IAK]

Moving up nicely the last week or so.


Disc. Holding

[MikeE]

Good little article here: https://www.nbr.co.nz/story/pushpay-still-has-oodles-growth-opportunity-analyst

Craig's has a buy recommendation with a target of $4.80.

[winner69]

Clare Capital always have some interesting insights. Contact them if you want to get their weekly insight

This week showed this chart for PPH - GTV is Gross Transaction Value (how much goes through the system). Cool chart eh

Pushpay has traded between 0.1 and 0.3 times GTV. Currently in the middle of that range. Pushpay has one of the lowest multiples of similar ASX stocks

As an aside Afterpay commands multiples between 0.7 and 1.8.

[ziptie]

10014

Long time lurker. First time poster

holder since the NZAX listing and starting to wonder if this horse has any legs left

[Lorne Ranger]

Long time lurker. First time poster

holder since the NZAX listing and starting to wonder if this horse has any legs left

Hmm is that glue I can smell?

[gbogo]

A NZ broker this morning refers to PushPay and notes that Blackbaud (BLKB) fell 15% overnight, (22% for the week), after a broker downgrade and poor earnings outlook update.

perhaps this had impact on PPH yesterday?

[gbogo]

NBR story this morning saying Eliot Crowther misled his ex-wife regarding value of PPH shares. various comments saying it doesn't look good at all, even if there was no misleading. for sure he's not associated with the company now either but..

https://www.nbr.co.nz/story/pushpay-co-founder-court-battle-over-100m-share-sale (login required sorry..)

though i think it almost as interesting that no-one has posted on here for nearly three weeks and yet this was a top 2 pick for 2018 by most participants in this forum's competition.. is everyone out now and lost interest? or waiting patiently..

[minimoke]

I'm mainly out, have lost a bit of interest. Too busy following my other losers

[sb9]

NBR story this morning saying Eliot Crowther misled his ex-wife regarding value of PPH shares. various comments saying it doesn't look good at all, even if there was no misleading. for sure he's not associated with the company now either but..

https://www.nbr.co.nz/story/pushpay-co-founder-court-battle-over-100m-share-sale (login required sorry..)

though i think it almost as interesting that no-one has posted on here for nearly three weeks and yet this was a top 2 pick for 2018 by most participants in this forum's competition.. is everyone out now and lost interest? or waiting patiently..

The other forum is pretty active on this thread.

Yes, it does look very bad at the outset, however you gotta wonder if Mr Crowther is working on his personal agenda by duping his now ex-wife to settle into her share of sale at an opportunistic price? If indeed he had access to material information about company, the board and management have duty to inform market accordingly.

Disc - have sold half of my holding recently just to balance in light of recent market turbulence.

[winner69]

Crowthers (ex) wife apparently said this (nbr) —

“while we were taking steps to determine whether we would remain married, Eliot told me that the Pushpay stock would soon be crashing. He told me that the price would soon go drastically down and that our shares were going to be worth very little. Eliot told me he knew this would happen based on information he knew about the company from his position at the company.”

Maybe he did know something?

[pg0220]

Crowthers (ex) wife apparently said this (nbr) —

“while we were taking steps to determine whether we would remain married, Eliot told me that the Pushpay stock would soon be crashing. He told me that the price would soon go drastically down and that our shares were going to be worth very little. Eliot told me he knew this would happen based on information he knew about the company from his position at the company.”

Maybe he did know something?
Wow.... Looks like this can also change churches' preferences towards the company given that they are running on a "faith" sector and possibly trigger the share to crash even further.....?

[Leftfield]

Wow.... Looks like this can also change churches' preferences towards the company given that they are running on a "faith" sector and possibly trigger the share to crash even further.....?

Happy to no longer have this in my portfolio...... T/A chart has not been looking good this year.

[winner69]

Always used to be great excitment when Push gave us the latest ..have all the believers deserted the ship?

Great report
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PPH/326451/290042.pdf

Seem to have done away with ACMR reporting ....and whats this thing Annual Cohorts?

[Nigelk]

Wow.... Looks like this can also change churches' preferences towards the company given that they are running on a "faith" sector and possibly trigger the share to crash even further.....?


It happened in 2016...

[Leftfield]

Quarterly reporting gone too..... It's obvious reading between the lines that the "exponential growth" that this company once had is long gone. Now the focus is on "future-proofing" (ie staying alive and relevant)..... Why would you buy this stock now, when you have to wait 5-7 years to get a tiny dividend.

I agree. The revenue growth looks good, but there are definite warning signs in the continual fudging of ACMR, lack of quarterly sales reporting, slowing of the key church growth stats, withdrawal of the NYSE listing goal etc. etc.

As I've said before the T/A is not looking good, so IMHO time to move on to better stocks. DYOR and GLH.

[minimoke]

There was a great run while it had the tail winds behind them. But I think they have now fallen away. Be ready for a long period in the doldrums

[kiwidollabill]

Watch for thinning of their sales headcount as part of a push to profitability .

[dreamcatcher]

GS likes results .................Our TPs of NZ$5.80/A$5.40 Maintain Buy (on CL)

Disc Hold

[Nigelk]

Watch for thinning of their sales headcount as part of a push to profitability .


They increased it. Now 46% of revenue

[winner69]

Jeez — PPH closed down 7% in Aust equivalent to 310

Could be an interesting open on NZX tomorrow

Not enough hype to keep the merry go round going round ....share price heading to sub 250 I reckon ...possibly sub 200

Today’s price still values PPH at 10 times forecast net sales ....a bit outrageous.

Even though pph is evolving from a growth company to a ‘mature’ profitable company it still not profitable so need to apply a more realistic price/sales multiple ....say 5, jeez that’s 160 odd.

[Baa_Baa]

Jeez — PPH closed down 7% in Aust equivalent to 310

Could be an interesting open on NZX tomorrow

Not enough hype to keep the merry go round going round ....share price heading to sub 250 I reckon ...possibly sub 200

Today’s price still values PPH at 10 times forecast net sales ....a bit outrageous.

Even though pph is evolving from a growth company to a ‘mature’ profitable company it still not profitable so need to apply a more realistic price/sales multiple ....say 5, jeez that’s 160 odd.

Interesting when a darling falls out of favour, looks like this whole years sideways thing has turned into a rotten downtrend. Best to zoom out to a weekly or monthly view for perspective. I reckon you should run those spooky fibs over your numbers and reconcile that 5x multiple possibility as a 100% retrace from the boost July 2017. Where are those supports in between? Rhetorical question, dyodd.