PPH - PushPay (Church/donor software.)

[Baddarcy]

So, I thought I'd test the system and searched the app for "arise". ARISE church is there, all good so far.

Then I went to the ARISE church website and clicked on "giving": "https://www.arisechurch.com/giving".

First option: Credit Card with a "Give Online Now" button.
Second option: For internet banking and setting up AP's you can give into the following accounts: <account numbers>

No mention whatsoever of PushPay.

Comments?

Can i ask why you chose that particular church? It seems to be a NZ church?

[King1212]

So, I thought I'd test the system and searched the app for "arise". ARISE church is there, all good so far.

Then I went to the ARISE church website and clicked on "giving": "https://www.arisechurch.com/giving".

First option: Credit Card with a "Give Online Now" button.
Second option: For internet banking and setting up AP's you can give into the following accounts: <account numbers>

No mention whatsoever of PushPay.

Comments?


Kiwis dont go to church...they go to the pub....

[MikeE]

Looks like it haaaattteesss the $3 mark lol

[Nigelk]

Still not a lot of money per church when they typically have several hundred members attending weekly . The cost per attendee, per week, is tiny. As stated they're going for bigger churches to lock them in. It will means slower growth in customer numbers but a higher ARPU. Hopefully lower cost to acquire relative to revenue too.

Loving that these guys keep delivering (and exceeding ) what was promised. Up over 200% on first purchase in 2015 and 50% on last purchase just 2 months ago. Still think they're priced reasonably compared to peers. Need to find Xero market cap figures for when they hit $100M ACMR, but I think they were more than 10X ACMR.

Disclosure. Own and in for the long haul

[Beagle]

So, I thought I'd test the system and searched the app for "arise". ARISE church is there, all good so far.

Then I went to the ARISE church website and clicked on "giving": "https://www.arisechurch.com/giving".

First option: Credit Card with a "Give Online Now" button.
Second option: For internet banking and setting up AP's you can give into the following accounts: <account numbers>

No mention whatsoever of PushPay.

Comments?

Find a better more inspired Church ? http://www.churchunlimited.co.nz/online-giving/

[weasel]

Can i ask why you chose that particular church? It seems to be a NZ church?

Few reasons -

1. I had heard of it, as know of ppl who go to it (from facebook posts), so I searched it to see if they are on pushpay
2. They seem to organize very expensive flash conference/events and have a very flashy website, so must get loads of money from <somewhere>
3. Seem to appeal to hip generations, so appealing for smartphone gens etc

So, was genuinely surprised when there was no mention of pushpay on their very appealing, modern, flashy website.

My point is that either ARISE is not very interested in pushpay, or, no one at pushpay is chasing up clients to make sure they are advertising it as a payment method.

Sample size of one. Just an observation, that's all.

[weasel]

Find a better more inspired Church ? http://www.churchunlimited.co.nz/online-giving/

Exactly, but why no one at pushpay chases up to see that their clients are advertising pushpay as a payment methd

[Ethereal]

USA is the target market.

[JeremyALD]

A bit of a sell off today

[King1212]

A bit of a sell off today


Profit taking....remenber sp was $1.66 last time..then recent high $3...that is almost double. People is locking a bit of profit. It will run around $2.80 ish then slowly up again. With thier brake even by possible mid or early next year...thier growth n potential are huge!

[gbogo]

I was sceptical a few months ago. But the growth rates even before this week are very impressive and a sign they can execute well. It's more than a church app - schools alone could be huge additional. And this is not a crowded trade. Big brokers don't cover it and there's not much chatter about it. One consequence is that volume is usually low (not this week) so can be hard to get in / out without moving it a way. That will change once the instos start to bite. I have no research to back this up but I think it could have a lot further to run. I bet I can't hold onto mine all the way up though!

[King1212]

Just watched the CEO video sent to my email....very confident with the management...

[blobbles]

Unsure why anyone would not be confident. Have been growing hugely each year. Consistently out performing targets. A low overhead business (minus sales) with not many players and huge future revenue potential. About to break a $100m revenue. On top of that they are a technology SaaS company.

What is not to love?

[kiora]

Just watched the CEO video sent to my email....very confident with the management...

Concur K1212. Body language including staff looking relaxed & happy.
What is next for PPH in addition to church donations?

[winner69]

Unsure why anyone would not be confident. Have been growing hugely each year. Consistently out performing targets. A low overhead business (minus sales) with not many players and huge future revenue potential. About to break a $100m revenue. On top of that they are a technology SaaS company.

What is not to love?

Yes a SaaS company but more of their revenues come from clipping the ticket on transactional throughput than 'pure' SaaS activities

But if that $2.2 billion doubles in next 2 to 3 quarters whose going to complain ...money for jam

[Beagle]

Unsure why anyone would not be confident. Have been growing hugely each year. Consistently out performing targets. A low overhead business (minus sales) with not many players and huge future revenue potential. About to break a $100m revenue. On top of that they are a technology SaaS company.

What is not to love?

And not to forget we have the Nasdaq listing to look forward too in due course. This one could do "an A2" on us :t_up:

[kizame]

My two favourite growth stocks ATM and PPH, exponential growth and both in huge markets,conquering the US is everything.

[iceman]

And not to forget we have the Nasdaq listing to look forward too in due course. This one could do "an A2" on us :t_up:

When would you think this could be Beagle ? I don't think we are anywhere close to this with the strict NASDAQ rules and requirements. 2021-2022 at the earliest ?

[kizame]

When would you think this could be Beagle ? I don't think we are anywhere close to this with the strict NASDAQ rules and requirements. 2021-2022 at the earliest ?

I honestly can't see PPH being around that long... No kiwi company can last without being bought out.

[Beagle]

When would you think this could be Beagle ? I don't think we are anywhere close to this with the strict NASDAQ rules and requirements. 2021-2022 at the earliest ?

Weren't they talking about a an approximate 3 year timeframe recently ?

I agree kizame, the chances of a takeover in due course are very high especially once its breaking even.
Disc: Have a bob each way on super growth stocks with this and A2 with the same sized shareholding in each.

[King1212]

insto bought in in ASX!!:t_up:

[sb9]

insto bought in in ASX!!:t_up:

Yes, NAB bought thro' BNZ on NZX....they paid top dollar too $2.96 a piece for their 23Mln shares.

Funny though, no notification on NZX only on ASX, wonder why...

[iceman]

Yes, NAB bought thro' BNZ on NZX....they paid top dollar too $2.96 a piece for their 23Mln shares.

Funny though, no notification on NZX only on ASX, wonder why...

On the NZX now. Good vote of confidence

[gbogo]

So looking at the detail of the NAB notification - bought the first 200k @ $2.10 back in Aug. (I remember that day when it spiked through $2.00, then dropped back to low 1.90s). Then 8 mio at $2.96! ?? I don’t think 8 mio have even gone through at that level or above, have they? I’m which case the executing broker FNZC, might be quite short still and scrambling to cover if it pops above $3 mark again!

[blobbles]

I think we should be reading more into this. This is a large bank. PPH is a payment company. Banks offer payment services among other things. It could just be coincidence that a bank wants to take a stake in a payments company, but it could definitely be something more... partnership? Potential take over?

[gbogo]

I think it unlikely that the bank is the ultimate owner. More likely they are acting as a custodian for a fund manager somewhere. NAB was the largest custodial bank in Australia until recently. Still a good sign though, I believe.

[Longhaul]

What to make of this announcement the other day then? Coincidence that it relates to 8m shares?

Does this mean Eliot Crowther is using the 8m shares as security for a loan to go buy a Ferrari?

"Change in Relevant Interest - Eliot BarryCrowther and Crowther Trustee Limitedhave entered into a Letter of Advice anda Loan Facility Master Agreement dated29 September 2017 and a SpecificSecurity Agreement dated 4 October2017 with Bank of New Zealand underwhich Eliot Barry Crowther andCrowther Trustee Limited granted asecurity interest over 8,000,000 sharesin Pushpay Holdings Limited held byFNZ Custodians Limited as custodianfor the Crowther Family Trust and theproceeds of those shares in favour ofBank of New Zealand as security forpayment of a loan facility."

[Baddarcy]

What to make of this announcement the other day then? Coincidence that it relates to 8m shares?

Does this mean Eliot Crowther is using the 8m shares as security for a loan to go buy a Ferrari?

"Change in Relevant Interest - Eliot BarryCrowther and Crowther Trustee Limitedhave entered into a Letter of Advice anda Loan Facility Master Agreement dated29 September 2017 and a SpecificSecurity Agreement dated 4 October2017 with Bank of New Zealand underwhich Eliot Barry Crowther andCrowther Trustee Limited granted asecurity interest over 8,000,000 sharesin Pushpay Holdings Limited held byFNZ Custodians Limited as custodianfor the Crowther Family Trust and theproceeds of those shares in favour ofBank of New Zealand as security forpayment of a loan facility."

I think that is just a coincidence that the 8m shares volume line up. The announcement says BNZ/NAB now holds over 14m shares and it says that they paid cash of $23.7m on 11/10/2017 for the 8m shares they bought, the statement above is mearly that the 8m shares are being used as security for a loan.

[gbogo]

My take is that Crowther borrowed against the shares, rather than sell them. They probly only lent him 50% so he must be quite bullish.

[gbogo]

Oh and I think the 8 mio shares isn’t a coincidence but an off-market transaction between Crowther and BNZ. So not meaningful to the price action.

[webllinks]

Good analysis here;
https://seaforthben.com/2017/09/03/pushpay-pph-competition-is-for-losers/

[King1212]

big crossing again at $2.89...another run coming soon??

[sb9]

big crossing again at $2.89...another run coming soon??

BOOM!!! $3 here it is....

[Beagle]

big crossing again at $2.89...another run coming soon??

Nice observation / prediction skills.

[King1212]

Nice observation / prediction skills.


Thanks...come on give me stars....lol:t_up:

[Beagle]

I have an instinct that this one is the next big thing...

[fiasco]

I have an instinct that this one is the next big thing...

I remember going to the Amazon Summit and was impressed by PPH, given their proficiency in building the right technical solution, on sound fundamentals.

Also, they're gaining in one of the largest markets, if they were wanting to start pushing out to other areas, I would imagine this to be less difficult.

[Leftfield]

I have an instinct that this one is the next big thing...

The ole 'gutometer' better than TA and FA any day!

[Beagle]

The ole 'gutometer' better than TA and FA any day!

LOL yes...it is rumored that a well trained Beagle can smell inappropriate food inside one's luggage from right across the other side of the airport arrivals hall...which is why they have them there of course. I like to think my instincts for a feed are almost half as good but would confess the TA looks pretty stellar on this one :)

[sb9]

I have an instinct that this one is the next big thing...

Me thinks too....good finish y'day at day's high, could they be part of next NZX 50 rebalance at the expense of MPG?

[JeremyALD]

Me thinks too....good finish y'day at day's high, could they be part of next NZX 50 rebalance at the expense of MPG?

MPG won't be in the top 100 at this rate.....

[Kiwi]

MPG won't be in the top 100 at this rate.....

I'm thinking we could be looking at another Xero, particularly when they list in the US.

[blobbles]

Regarding their US listing, as they are already listed in Aus/NZ, will they have to delist in one of these before their US listing? Which one, if so?

[Beagle]

I'm thinking we could be looking at another Xero, particularly when they list in the US.

The next A2 Milk rocket, you read if from me first :)
My rating BBB (Beagle busy buying).

[fiasco]

The next A2 Milk rocket, you read if from me first :)
My rating BBB (Beagle busy buying).

Shhhhhh!! Just came out of a client meeting and was going to top up today, and noticed the surge this morning!

[winner69]

That personal trainer could be wrong

$3,60 by Christmas .....nah in November and 4 bucks by Christmas methinks

Go you good thing

[winner69]

pushing 1 billion dollar market cap ...WOW

[Beagle]

That personal trainer could be wrong

$3,60 by Christmas .....nah in November and 4 bucks by Christmas methinks

Go you good thing

Told you that personal trainer would come good didn't I !
Had an update from him today, $4 sometime this summer is the word.

[winner69]

Told you that personal trainer would come good didn't I !
Had an update from him today, $4 sometime this summer is the word.

Hope that’s the Wellington summer ....not the Auckland one that might never come

[Baddarcy]

Me thinks too....good finish y'day at day's high, could they be part of next NZX 50 rebalance at the expense of MPG?

It depends on how many shares are considered free, i had a feeling (can't find any evidence to back myself up thou :mellow:) it was fairly closely held which will count against PPH.

[iceman]

It depends on how many shares are considered free, i had a feeling (can't find any evidence to back myself up thou :mellow:) it was fairly closely held which will count against PPH.

Ditto Baddarcy. I would have thought the free float was far too limited for that to happen anytime soon

[Pricey]

pushing 1 billion dollar market cap ...WOW

Getting a bit ahead of itself eh.

[sb9]

Getting a bit ahead of itself eh.

I doubt so, you only have to look at the recent results by tech giants like Amazon, Face Book and Apple (just now), all of them beat their earnings by big margin.
I think the stars are aligning in right path for this lil beauty and one to watch for in the short to medium term.

[drcjp]

https://nzx.com/announcements/309762
DD granted to Pemba re Smartpay
Not entirely sure what this might mean for PPH if comes to fruition

[King1212]

PPH and Smartpay is completely different business model....

[winner69]

PPH and Smartpay is completely different business model....

......but PPH could still be subject to a takeover

[King1212]

......but PPH could still be subject to a takeover

Yes..would rather to see PPH lists in Nasdaq....ehm...when they successfully execute n list it in USA...would see the cap market at least 2-3billions ...?

[King1212]

would PPH delist from NZX once they are going to US Nasdaq???? Bloody good news awaiting!!! Amin!!

[fiasco]

would PPH delist from NZX once they are going to US Nasdaq???? Bloody good news awaiting!!! Amin!!

I would expect they would delist from ASX AND NZX once listed on NASDAQ. But if they only have to delist from one to be on NASDAQ, then NZX would be a no-brainer to drop-off. But would there be any value staying on ASX?

[MikeE]

What would the implications be for us invested on NZX if they were to de-list NZX to list in US?

[King1212]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11942358

[sb9]

Another day of solid volume with more accumulation in progress....one more bit of good news re progress we might see this fly through close to $4.

[winner69]

Another day of solid volume with more accumulation in progress....one more bit of good news re progress we might see this fly through close to $4.

Jeez 4 bucks ...I like your thinking mate

[sb9]

Jeez 4 bucks ...I like your thinking mate

Expect a bullish run today followed by commentary at 11am investor conf call.

[Longhaul]

Expect a bullish run today followed by commentary at 11am investor conf call.

The one thing that stood out to me was a US listing within 15 months. I know they were planning one but had they given a specific time frame before now?

[fiasco]

The one thing that stood out to me was a US listing within 15 months. I know they were planning one but had they given a specific time frame before now?

I like how they will be tracking revenue during their quarterly updates. As previously noted, they're a very transparent organisation.

Great work PPH! Can't wait to see how they look in 15 months time before US listing, so much opportunity to grab

[weasel]

The one thing that stood out to me was a US listing within 15 months. I know they were planning one but had they given a specific time frame before now?

Pursue a listing within 15 months is a bit ambiguous. Does it mean start the process, or, intend to be listed, in 15 months?

[King1212]

the next Xero..will be better..as USA listing is coming. Last update said within 3 years. Now..15 months...well done!!

[sb9]

the next Xero..will be better..as USA listing is coming. Last update said within 3 years. Now..15 months...well done!!

My bet is they get listed on NASDAQ sooner than Xero does.....these guys are known to move things very rapidly. On the same token I'm picking they'll ditch NZX at some stage next year.

[King1212]

My bet is they get listed on NASDAQ sooner than Xero does.....these guys are known to move things very rapidly. On the same token I'm picking they'll ditch NZX at some stage next year.

December..is high in revenue. What would u see the Sp on the next January update ...Sb9?

[sb9]

December..is high in revenue. What would u see the Sp on the next January update ...Sb9?

A lot depends on their commentary in today's conf call. Having said that I won't be surprised to see sp with 4 handle next year....

[weasel]

what's the link to the briefing. it doesn't seem to actually include it in the annoucnement??

edit: forget that...it's by telephone

[kiora]

Agrees,step back & watch the fun :)

Isn't it fun,hypothesis galore :cool:

[kizame]

Nasdaq listing what does that mean for us though? How would it work for us if we wanted to stay holding essentially a US stock?

[gbogo]

They said they would remain listed on NZX and ASX post-any NASDAQ listing.

[fiasco]

Nasdaq listing what does that mean for us though? How would it work for us if we wanted to stay holding essentially a US stock?

Chris mentioned there was no plan to delist from the NZX or ASX. Listing on the NASDAQ will allow them to gather more capital for growth opportunities (i.e. acquisitions)

[King1212]

hold your breath....when ASX open!!

[King1212]

Nasdaq listing what does that mean for us though? How would it work for us if we wanted to stay holding essentially a US stock?

I think we will get the share converted in US dollar....

[minimoke]

hold your breath....when ASX open!!
Looks like they have just woken up. - nice!

[sb9]

Chris mentioned there was no plan to delist from the NZX or ASX. Listing on the NASDAQ will allow them to gather more capital for growth opportunities (i.e. acquisitions)

Yes, for now anyway.

And he also mentioned there's going to be a capital raise (US) in conjunction with primary listing in US.

One thing I liked in the conf call was the reference to flattening costs at the same time increasing revenue and GP margin. However, the head is expected to hit 400 from current 380 or so after which it basically flat lines from there.

That analyst from Craigs (Steven I think) had most of the questions and some good ones too. If anyone is their client watch out for recommendations coming through over next few days.

[blobbles]

Someone has put a cheeky $6 offer on the NZX. Not sure that will get taken out today, one can only hope!

[kizame]

So if listed on the NASDAQ, those shares will become depository receipts as in when Telecom listed? That would mean that the shares will be grouped in tranches of say ten shares so as not to be a penny dreadful?
So then the value of PPH shares will be governed then by the NASDAQ list price for the previous nights (days) trade. Sorry I'm trying to get my head around 3 exchange listings and the result of that.

[King1212]

I read again the result...what a bit worry me is they are going to raise capital again....that will put pressure to the sp again?

[kizame]

I read again the result...what a bit worry me is they are going to raise capital again....that will put pressure to the sp again?

It is 15 months away at least, dont worry about it now.

[JeremyALD]

I read again the result...what a bit worry me is they are going to raise capital again....that will put pressure to the sp again?

Last time they raised capital it did wonders to the SP so who knows

[iceman]

And it will be done in conjunction with NASDAQ listing so nothing to worry about I would think.

Just reading through the announcement again, the ARPC increase is quite spectacular, from $540 pm to $790pm or up 46%. Very encouraging and so is the fact that retention rate remains at above 95%, like DIL used to do :-)

[sb9]

I read again the result...what a bit worry me is they are going to raise capital again....that will put pressure to the sp again?

I think its more a statutory requirement to issue more capital as part of NASDAQ listing, so that new investors in US can subscribe to them and it also improves liquidity of the stock. Another thing Chris mentioned re capital raise is to strengthen the balance sheet.

That's my understanding anyway.

[Beagle]

Happy to put my paws up for some more if they do a capital raise on the NZX. This is a very deep market with hundreds of thousands / millions ? of charitable organizations and churches around the world and they are just starting to scratch the surface of this market in terms of mostly the larger Churches mainly in the U.S.

Looking at what stocks have potential for 2018 in what is a fairly fully priced market I would think this would want to be on many investors Xmas wish lists.

Note to self have I got enough ?????, I don't think so, fix this ASAP.

[Brain]

I find it a bit hard to get too excited about this one.
Market Cap nearly a billion dollars nz
acmr 65m$ US
12.5m$ loss US for 6 months
Cash 25m$ US
Growth is very good so far.

[Hectorplains]

I find it a bit hard to get too excited about this one.
Market Cap nearly a billion dollars nz
acmr 65m$ US
12.5m$ loss US for 6 months
Cash 25m$ US
Growth is very good so far.

Yeah, I'm a Doubting Thomas too.

The revenue growth reported and customer retention rate are outstanding. Two points from the announcement that I'm struggling with -

1. Heaslip's comment to NBR that they have, "only so far secured 4.5% of the medium to large churches likely to invest in its software," is very bullish. Scoop framed it differently; "Pushpay's app has gained traction in the US faith sector, where its services are used by 2 percent of the estimated 314,000 churches. It is now in use in 50 of the top 100 churches in the US." Has PPH already secured the easy (and larger) converters then? Can they then sustain the current level of growth (their share price would demand that) ?

2. By comparison Heaslip's commentary around faith based education and non-profits in NBR was tepid; "likely to be a year or more (away)", they are still "assessing these new markets"and that "it would be arrogant to assume it knew these potential markets." The school numbers shown on the site are very low and haven't changed since they were first loaded. If the faith field has an abundance of easy growth ahead, why are they diverting resources into secondary areas?

[minimoke]

Has PPH already secured the easy (and larger) converters then? Can they then sustain the current level of growth (their share price would demand that) ?
My view is that converting these Larger churches would be a harder job than converting the medium ones - so many more egos to convince to get them over the line. The medium ones should be easier - but with less potential individual church revenue. But PPH should be able to do it on a volume basis.


The school numbers shown on the site are very low and haven't changed since they were first loaded. If the faith field has an abundance of easy growth ahead, why are they diverting resources into secondary areas?
Having got some traction in one market its not too soon to start dipping toes in another market to test opportunities. In fact probably a very good time- PPH ought not become know solely as the "church" app.

[iceman]

My view is that converting these Larger churches would be a harder job than converting the medium ones - so many more egos to convince to get them over the line. The medium ones should be easier - but with less potential individual church revenue. But PPH should be able to do it on a volume basis. [/FONT][/COLOR]
.

I also think that having 50 of the 100 largest churches may be a helpful selling point when selling to the medium sized churches. This company and interesting debate reminds me so much of the debate (and results) experienced with DIL over the years.

With the recent increase in SP and some more buying, PPH has overtaken both HBL and THL to become the largest holding in my NZX portfolio and I'm well happy with that.

[winner69]

the personal trainer was right on - it has hit 350

next stop will be 4 bucks

[sb9]

the personal trainer was right on - it has hit 350

next stop will be 4 bucks

Looks like some of broker firms might have put out their recommendations following on from last week's conf call presentation. Nice uptrend in progress currently...

[gbogo]

Looks like some of broker firms might have put out their recommendations following on from last week's conf call presentation. Nice uptrend in progress currently...

any idea of target levels or which brokers please?

[sb9]

any idea of target levels or which brokers please?

Sorry have no idea. It was just my guess looking at the price action today.

PS - I nearly fell off my chair when I saw 3.70 being taken out just now...

[gbogo]

$3.40 bid now on ASX which is $3.77 NZD-equivalent...

[fiasco]

Sorry have no idea. It was just my guess looking at the price action today.

PS - I nearly fell off my chair when I saw 3.70 being taken out just now...

Same boat, came out of workshops, wanted to grab another small parcel at 3.50, whaaaaat.

Would love to see the analysts view once it comes to light.

[JeremyALD]

Congrats pushpay on a $1 billion market cap!

[blobbles]

Congrats pushpay on a $1 billion market cap!

We have a unicorn...

[RupertBear]

any idea of target levels or which brokers please?

Craigs dont cover PPH YET but it sounds like one of their analysts was at the meeting last week so I suspect they are about to :confused:

[minimoke]

Craigs dont cover PPH YET but it sounds like one of their analysts was at the meeting last week so I suspect they are about to :confused:So we have a $1b company and sharebrokers aren't covering it. Appalling! No wonder I go it alone

[winner69]

Was that a secret conference call last week or something

[silverblizzard888]

Was that a secret conference call last week or something

Part of the investor briefing they normally do. You can listen to it following the details they listed here https://www.nzx.com/announcements/310426

[minimoke]

Was that a secret conference call last week or something
Part of my research ended up with me concluding that this company actually appeared quite transparent and briefed shareholders regularly.

[gbogo]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/pushpay-hits-1b-valuation-shares-surge-new-high-ck-210153

NBR story, not pay-walled. No new info.

[Beagle]

I have seen some very good posts and analysis on this on another forum and its probably better than anything any potential analyst will post if they start covering this.
Way back around February 2017 this poster on that forum, (which I had probably better not name so as not to upset the owners and administrators and STMOD of this forum) called this as late $3s by late 2017, subsequently updated to as much as $4.14. He's been bang on the money with this one. Very bright guy.
The hound is happy to follow his lead on this one. First rule of successful investing is to follow other successful people and any good hound on the hunt knows you don't always have to be the lead dog to enjoy the hunt :-)

[Beagle]

Happy to put my paws up for some more if they do a capital raise on the NZX. This is a very deep market with hundreds of thousands / millions ? of charitable organizations and churches around the world and they are just starting to scratch the surface of this market in terms of mostly the larger Churches mainly in the U.S.

Looking at what stocks have potential for 2018 in what is a fairly fully priced market I would think this would want to be on many investors Xmas wish lists.

Note to self have I got enough ?????, I don't think so, fix this ASAP.

Fixed that on Friday at $3.44.

[Nigelk]

Hectorplains,

PPH can't please everyone over this issue...

If they do only US churches, they're accused of being a "one trick pony' with a narrow focus.
If they look to other opportunities, they're accused of taking focus and resources away from what's working well.

Disclosure: Full faith that PPH will keep delivering!

[drcjp]

Jeepers. If this carries on it'll be $4 by Xmas.

[Jay]

Sold out of ATM on one if its volatility swings (maybe too early by the looks of things) and bought more PPH -
Still up just over 25% for the short term so far, can't complain.

[King1212]

Booked in profit...as all time high. Will get back in if down a bit...or not:eek2:or it will keep going up....

[Beagle]

Jeepers. If this carries on it'll be $4 by Xmas.

What's it going to be by Christmas 2018 with the Nasdaq listing...that's what's got me licking my chops in anticipation.

[winner69]

What's it going to be by Christmas 2018 with the Nasdaq listing...that's what's got me licking my chops in anticipation.

At least $5 ....... US$5 of course

[Beagle]

At least $5 ....... US$5 of course

My instincts tell me that might be a little conservative. Definitely one for the 2018 sharetrader share competition, (if there is one) and a healthy dose in the real portfolio too :)

[silverblizzard888]

Having doing many valuation exercises and tracking of US tech companies, if PPH can achieve its $100 ACMR this year, we'd see a $3 billion valuation on the US market since the US market tends to expect low capital returns for their money and extends payback. While when I do a kiwi tech value I get 900 million due to kiwis conservative nature and much need for much higher returns, so big difference in numbers and reason why I think PPH want to list in the US. we are talking the difference between $3.5 and $11.50 just on crowd apetite.

[Beagle]

Having doing many valuation exercises and tracking of US tech companies, if PPH can achieve its $100 ACMR this year, we'd see a $3 billion valuation on the US market since the US market tends to expect low capital returns for their money and extends payback. While when I do a kiwi tech value I get 900 million due to kiwis conservative nature and much need for much higher returns, so big difference in numbers and reason why I think PPH want to list in the US. we are talking the difference between $3.5 and $11.50 just on crowd apetite.

Double your money on a NASDAQ listing wouldn't surprise me, triple would be very nice but the hound might get too fat and lazy from the profit..oh well never mind, deal with that "problem" when it comes :)

[winner69]

Chris Heaslip bans laptops at his meetings

Like that idea

[winner69]

Big business this church giving ...even have big Summits on how to do it better and better

Push seem to play a big part

https://echurch.com/summit/

[winner69]

Having doing many valuation exercises and tracking of US tech companies, if PPH can achieve its $100 ACMR this year, we'd see a $3 billion valuation on the US market since the US market tends to expect low capital returns for their money and extends payback. While when I do a kiwi tech value I get 900 million due to kiwis conservative nature and much need for much higher returns, so big difference in numbers and reason why I think PPH want to list in the US. we are talking the difference between $3.5 and $11.50 just on crowd apetite.

Silver ...yes SaaS valuations interesting

But isn’t a 30 times ACMR (run rate) for Push a bit excessive / optimistic

When assessing a suitable multiple does one need to consider that only a third of revenues applies to the software (the SaaS but), the rest being their cut of what’s processed.

Common practice is to include services and other add ons because they generally are seen as recurring. So fair enough to count these processing revenues in ACMR but there is a strong case to say that the 50% processing fees should be taken off (shown in the accounts as a cost of sales) - thus using a net ACMR figure as a base for assessing valuations based on multiples.

A $100m reported ACMR would only be about $70m if we did that. So currently share price reflects a multiple of about 10.

[iceman]

Silver ...yes SaaS valuations interesting

But isn’t a 30 times ACMR (run rate) for Push a bit excessive / optimistic

When assessing a suitable multiple does one need to consider that only a third of revenues applies to the software (the SaaS but), the rest being their cut of what’s processed.

Common practice is to include services and other add ons because they generally are seen as recurring. So fair enough to count these processing revenues in ACMR but there is a strong case to say that the 50% processing fees should be taken off (shown in the accounts as a cost of sales) - thus using a net ACMR figure as a base for assessing valuations based on multiples.

A $100m reported ACMR would only be about $70m if we did that. So currently share price reflects a multiple of about 10.

I think PPH is extremely difficult to value at this stage as sentiment when/if listed on the NASDAQ will have a major influence. Meanwhile here is food for thought.
(1USD approx DKK 6.25) Nets seems to have very limited revenue growth over the last 4 years, EBIDTA about USD 420M in 2016 (NPAT USD 160M) and is valued at USD 5.3 BILLION by private equity guys !!!!!:

https://www.reuters.com/article/legal-nets-m-a-hellman-friedman/nets-welcomes-5-3-bln-takeover-bid-by-hellman-friedman-idUSKCN1C02H1

https://investor.nets.eu/financial-information

[Beagle]

The hound reckons this stock is many investors best chance for 2018 to bark up a storm on their portfolio. With a Nasdaq listing highly likely in late 2018 / early 2019 to crystalize serious value...and then lets not forget about the company's organic growth in the meantime.

[winner69]

I think PPH is extremely difficult to value at this stage as sentiment when/if listed on the NASDAQ will have a major influence. Meanwhile here is food for thought.
(1USD approx DKK 6.25) Nets seems to have very limited revenue growth over the last 4 years and EBIDTA only about USD 420k in 2016 (NPAT USD 160k), yet is valued at USD 5.3 BILLION by private equity guys !!!!!:

https://www.reuters.com/article/legal-nets-m-a-hellman-friedman/nets-welcomes-5-3-bln-takeover-bid-by-hellman-friedman-idUSKCN1C02H1

https://investor.nets.eu/financial-information

Interesting ...but I get confused when Europeans use commas where we us points.....so hard to understand the financials you linked

Reuters article says - The price on offer from the U.S. buyout firm implies a valuation for Nets of 13 times 2018 enterprise-value-to-EBITDA, in line with the sector average, UBS wrote in a research note.

And yahoo finance stats say current price reflects a price/sales ratio of 4.3

Such multiples wouldn’t make Push even a billion dollar company


So maybe this Nets is very much bigger than Push

[winner69]

The hound reckons this stock is many investors best chance for 2018 to bark up a storm on their portfolio. With a Nasdaq listing highly likely in late 2018 / early 2019 to crystalize serious value...and then lets not forget about the company's organic growth in the meantime.

So a case of fundamentals don’t really matter eh

It’s like taking a lotto ticket but you will win a prize no matter what ......might be a little prize but could be the jackpot ...but you won’t lose no matter what

I love punting and betting on Push is just that ....pity it takes so long to get the payout ....at least with WINX it’s only a few minutes

Buying heaps more then Beagle? Better bet than SUM others

[iceman]

Interesting ...but I get confused when Europeans use commas where we us points.....so hard to understand the financials you linked

Reuters article says - The price on offer from the U.S. buyout firm implies a valuation for Nets of 13 times 2018 enterprise-value-to-EBITDA, in line with the sector average, UBS wrote in a research note.

And yahoo finance stats say current price reflects a price/sales ratio of 4.3

Such multiples wouldn’t make Push even a billion dollar company


So maybe this Nets is very much bigger than Push

You are correct winner. The comma confused me and I've corrected the earlier post. I think this is still a pretty spectacular valuation for a company that seems to have reached maturity and has not grown revenue in any meaningful way since 2013 !

[winner69]

You are correct winner. The comma confused me and I've corrected the earlier post. I think this is still a pretty spectacular valuation for a company that seems to have reached maturity and has not grown revenue in any meaningful way since 2013 !

I did notice one thing from those links you put up

Other ‘analysts’ do show a net revenue figure (after allowing for processing costs) just like I was suggesting earlier post

In Push case $100m becomes about $70m

[Nigelk]

Big business this church giving ...even have big Summits on how to do it better and better

Push seem to play a big part

https://echurch.com/summit/

That's because E-Church is a Pushpay business

[Nigelk]

Silver ...yes SaaS valuations interesting

But isn’t a 30 times ACMR (run rate) for Push a bit excessive / optimistic

When assessing a suitable multiple does one need to consider that only a third of revenues applies to the software (the SaaS but), the rest being their cut of what’s processed.

Common practice is to include services and other add ons because they generally are seen as recurring. So fair enough to count these processing revenues in ACMR but there is a strong case to say that the 50% processing fees should be taken off (shown in the accounts as a cost of sales) - thus using a net ACMR figure as a base for assessing valuations based on multiples.

A $100m reported ACMR would only be about $70m if we did that. So currently share price reflects a multiple of about 10.

Why would you exclude processing fees? It's recurring revenue as much as subscription fees and a core part of their offering. Others wouldn't exclude this for a bank or credit card company.

[winner69]

Why would you exclude processing fees? It's recurring revenue as much as subscription fees and a core part of their offering. Others wouldn't exclude this for a bank or credit card company.

I wasn't suggestinng excluding processing income in full (yes it is recurring) but saying maybe the processing costs (the cut and costs Visa / Mastercard etc take) be taken into account to give a net processing income. After all that is all Push get.

The cut that Visa / Mastercard take is just under 60% so in big picture quite significant

[Faker]

Push's getting smashed really hard. Whether it's profit taking or something else idk. To my mind there are quite a few things to look forward to in 2018 including US listing. Happy holder.

[sb9]

Push's getting smashed really hard. Whether it's profit taking or something else idk. To my mind there are quite a few things to look forward to in 2018 including US listing. Happy holder.

Not much volume though, very light so far 65k or $229k. Nothing to see here, just one of those days...

[fiasco]

Looks very much that way sb9, the difficulty I have is when to start buying parcels again.

[sb9]

Looks very much that way sb9, the difficulty I have is when to start buying parcels again.

Another day like today, it'll be within my buy target price range and will top up more.

[Beagle]

A "little birdie" told me the other day he expects this company has an excellent chance of inclusion in the NZX 50 index at the forthcoming rebalancing / index adjustment in early December. I think some of the recent sellers cashing in their chips for Xmas spending might rue their decision but as usual, time will tell.

[winner69]

A "little birdie" told me the other day he expects this company has an excellent chance of inclusion in the NZX 50 index at the forthcoming rebalancing / index adjustment in early December. I think some of the recent sellers cashing in their chips for Xmas spending might rue their decision but as usual, time will tell.

Never sell Push ...sell other things if you need some cash but never Push

Remember what silver said the other about that Nasdaq listing ....over 10 bucks

[minimoke]

I've freed up a bit more cash - might see how this plays out.

[drcjp]

If I had to pick why the highly conspicious drop, I would suggest that staff are buying in. Good thing if true and will find out in due course.

[BlackPeter]

If I had to pick why the highly conspicious drop, I would suggest that staff are buying in. Good thing if true and will find out in due course.

Price dropping due to staff buying in? How does this work ... :confused:

[drcjp]

Price dropping due to staff buying in? How does this work ... :confused:
I'm obviously not privy to the actual mechanics but I have observed on other holdings in the past (ATM and SCL) that shortly after a drop and recover, RI notices appear. That may or may not happen here. I'm only speculating.

[Whitebeard]

Posting from a link on another forum. PPH joins NZX50..
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/NZXO/311663/271446.pdf

[Beagle]

Index tracking funds like Milfords and others will have to sell XRO and buy PPH in big volume, how sad never mind :D :D

[minimoke]

A nice way to start the day up 3.2% (so far!)

[Beagle]

A nice way to start the day up 3.2% (so far!)

Yes go you good thing :t_up: CVT went up 20% when they were included in the NZX50, lets see this one fly !!...and then for the encore in 2018 we can look forward to the real fun when they list on the NASDAQ !!

[Longhaul]

I am eagerly awaiting confirmation of $100m ACMR this month. It should add a little fuel to the fire and be a good finish to the year.

[fiasco]

I am eagerly awaiting confirmation of $100m ACMR this month. It should add a little fuel to the fire and be a good finish to the year.

Exactly! Will help push this beaut through to $4.

[Leftfield]

Happy I topped up 5k at 3.59 yesterday. PPH now my second biggest holding at 15% of my portfolio with a 45% gain to date. Exciting times ahead IMHO.

[tullan4120]

Happy I topped up 5k at 3.59 yesterday. PPH now my second biggest holding at 15% of my portfolio with a 45% gain to date. Exciting times ahead IMHO.

whats the first one.

[Leftfield]

whats the first one.

ATM - Its been an exciting ride over the last 3 years ;) (overweight at 60% of my portfolio)

[iceman]

ATM - Its been an exciting ride over the last 3 years ;)

I went big into ATM early on. Had a great return but could be argued I sold far too early. Got into PPH early on and will not be making the same mistake again, I hope :-) I feel we are on an exciting ride with this one and hope we get a NASDAQ listing before being taken out at a low price like DIL did

[Leftfield]

I went big into ATM early on. Had a great return but could be argued I sold far too early. Got into PPH early on and will not be making the same mistake again, I hope :-) I feel we are on an exciting ride with this one and hope we get a NASDAQ listing before being taken out at a low price like DIL did

I can relate to that. ATM was a tricky investment in the early days - there were a lot of knockers. Its only more recently that I've become a lot more confident in the management team and their ability to deliver. The same applies with PPH, they have established a great record of delivering what they say. Who knows where this one will go, but its looking exciting for 2018.

[King1212]

with huge fire disaster in LA..that would increase the revenue of giving?? any thoughts?

[winner69]

with huge fire disaster in LA..that would increase the revenue of giving?? any thoughts?

All a bit morbid this wishing for natural disasters and mad gunmen killing innocent people so our beloved Push can take a chunk of all those extra donations the faithful might be inclined to give.

[minimoke]

All a bit morbid this wishing for natural disasters and mad gunmen killing innocent people so our beloved Push can take a chunk of all those extra donations the faithful might be inclined to give.
Doesnt stop churches from asking - how much do they pass on I wonder?

[sb9]

Quarterly update for Dec'17 quarter scheduled for 10th Jan 2018, its gonna be mighty start for New Year....surely $4 by that time.

[Leftfield]

All a bit morbid this wishing for natural disasters and mad gunmen killing innocent people so our beloved Push can take a chunk of all those extra donations the faithful might be inclined to give.

I think it is a mistake to think of PPH in terms of church's only. At its core PPH is about 'facilitating payments for communities and organisations'. While in its early stages PPH has made huge progress with churches, the longer term could easily see the PPH 'system' extended to schools, universities, charities and much much more.

[Beagle]

I think it is a mistake to think of PPH in terms of church's only. At its core PPH is about 'facilitating payments for communities and organisations'. While in its early stages PPH has made huge progress with churches, the longer term could easily see the PPH 'system' extended to schools, universities, charities and much much more.

That hits the nail squarely on the head !

[minimoke]

I think it is a mistake to think of PPH in terms of church's only. At its core PPH is about 'facilitating payments for communities and organisations'. While in its early stages PPH has made huge progress with churches, the longer term could easily see the PPH 'system' extended to schools, universities, charities and much much more.And teh reason I bought in!

[Beagle]

A "little birdie" tells me there's a few million shares shortfall in shares required by index tracker funds leading into the index rebalancing tomorrow. Could be an "interesting" match process in the last 15 minutes of trading tomorrow and follow through on Monday next week :t_up:

[gbogo]

A "little birdie" tells me there's a few million shares shortfall in shares required by index tracker funds leading into the index rebalancing tomorrow. Could be an "interesting" match process in the last 15 minutes of trading tomorrow and follow through on Monday next week :t_up:

nice call Mr Dog. thanking you.

[Beagle]

nice call Mr Dog. thanking you.

Nice reliable, helpful birdie that one with a good soul, we should be thanking him, he knows who he is, thanks mate.

[King1212]

Nice reliable, helpful birdie that one with a good soul, we should be thanking him, he knows who he is, thanks mate.


Nice one! No sellers at ASX....so expecting a good run to 10thJanuary. If the case of IPO in USA...we might see the company cap to start around 2-3b?

[minimoke]

A "little birdie" tells me there's a few million shares shortfall in shares required by index tracker funds leading into the index rebalancing tomorrow. Could be an "interesting" match process in the last 15 minutes of trading tomorrow and follow through on Monday next week :t_up:
Could be $4.00 by end of day.

[winner69]

Could be $4.00 by end of day.

More likely we’ll over $4 I reckon

[sb9]

More likely we’ll over $4 I reckon

Check the depth on ASX, someone bidding for 100k units at A$3.60 a piece which is about
NZ $3.95.

[King1212]

A lot of trades went through $3.90. Possible fundies recommendation to thier clients?

[Beagle]

There you go guys, Merry Christmas :)

[steveb]

wow $4.15 and sellers have dried up,time to pop a cork!

[ddrone]

wow $4.15 and sellers have dried up,time to pop a cork!

Huge rebalance. Sellers will be back Monday though, just over our $4 mark ;)

[King1212]

Will never see no $3 in front anyone for now on! Congratulations holders! God blesses all of us!

[Beagle]

Will never see no $3 in front anyone for now on! Congratulations holders! God blesses all of us!

He does indeed !!!!!

[JeremyALD]

Wow. I have a very small share of PPH but am up 50%. Thanks for your advice on this one all. What a run this year.

[gbogo]

Mr Dog, Please thank the birdie on my behalf. Fabulous confirmation.

[iceman]

I have been sceptical about us reaching the NZX50 for the very reason that the shares are tightly held. I did not foresee what happened today which was a clever move by substantial holders. As you know Mr Beagle, I’ve taken a big bet on this one and am mighty happy with that decision

[Hectorplains]

I think it is a mistake to think of PPH in terms of church's only. At its core PPH is about 'facilitating payments for communities and organisations'. While in its early stages PPH has made huge progress with churches, the longer term could easily see the PPH 'system' extended to schools, universities, charities and much much more.

I disagree..."easily" done it won't be. They've made sod all progress in those areas in the last 2 years. Those markets are competitive and much more developed than the 'faithspace.' It will more likely be a long, expensive slog. PPH have said there is plenty more to be made from the churches - they still only have 6% of the US large church segment. Given the potential why wouldn't you just focus on that market?

[Leftfield]

I disagree..."easily" done it won't be. They've made sod all progress in those areas in the last 2 years. Those markets are competitive and much more developed than the 'faithspace.' It will more likely be a long, expensive slog. PPH have said there is plenty more to be made from the churches - they still only have 6% of the US large church segment. Given the potential why wouldn't you just focus on that market?

Time will tell Hectorplains, the 'faithspace' has been great for them and it is rightly their priority. I'm just observing that PPH could diversify when the faithspace is no longer a priority. in the meantime I'm just loving the recent PPH SP appreciation.

[iceman]

I think they should continue focusing on the faith space only for now. They have a first mover advantage there and are obviously doing well in it. Stick to the knitting. We will be taken over before we need to think about anything else. !

[Beagle]

Last Friday on 8 December it closed at $3.46. Confirmation that it would be included in the NZX50 on Friday afternoon saw it open at $3.50 on Monday morning on the 11th and steadily track higher for most of the week as the news spread. Friday's close of $4.15 represents a 19.94% premium on last week's close on no new news other than NZX50 inclusion and index tracker funds being forced to buy in.

I like the stock and was aware they were likely to be included before last Friday so took a decent sized position which I added to this last week on confirmation of inclusion. Even so I was very pleasantly surprised by Friday's close and would have been very happy with $4.00.
The question in my mind...is it suddenly worth 20% more just because of index inclusion ?

Answer...No but there are some mitigating factors. (I know this seems like a contradiction but this is how the little birdie explained it to me).
Once in the NZX50 analysts are more likely to start covering it. Institutions other than tracker funds are more likely to take an interest in it and brokers who are managing funds with full discretion on behalf of clients are possibly more likely to take a position in it. Further, brokers are more likely to recommend it to their clients as part of their normal advisory role.
The stock isn't suddenly intrinsically worth 20% more but it could be that with wider market acceptance institutions and other investors are prepared to pay more.

Finally in conclusion to answer the question I posed myself...Does the answer really matter with a Nasdaq listing sometime in the near future anyway ?
It only really matters in the short term.

[see weed]

Last Friday on 8 December it closed at $3.46. Confirmation that it would be included in the NZX50 on Friday afternoon saw it open at $3.50 on Monday morning on the 11th and steadily track higher for most of the week as the news spread. Friday's close of $4.15 represents a 19.94% premium on last week's close on no new news other than NZX50 inclusion and index tracker funds being forced to buy in.

I like the stock and was aware they were likely to be included before last Friday so took a decent sized position which I added to this last week on confirmation of inclusion. Even so I was very pleasantly surprised by Friday's close and would have been very happy with $4.00.
The question in my mind...is it suddenly worth 20% more just because of index inclusion ?

Answer...No but there are some mitigating factors. (I know this seems like a contradiction but this is how the little birdie explained it to me).
Once in the NZX50 analysts are more likely to start covering it. Institutions other than tracker funds are more likely to take an interest in it and brokers who are managing funds with full discretion on behalf of clients are possibly more likely to take a position in it. Further, brokers are more likely to recommend it to their clients as part of their normal advisory role.
The stock isn't suddenly intrinsically worth 20% more but it could be that with wider market acceptance institutions and other investors are prepared to pay more.

Finally in conclusion to answer the question I posed myself...Does the answer really matter with a Nasdaq listing sometime in the near future anyway ?
It only really matters in the short term.
Beagle, Thanks for all your input over the last year or so on different companies. I wish I had bought PushPay a while back, hearing your comments, but might buy some another time. I do think you should start a weekly column in the NZ Herald, and also start up a company called Beagle Asset Management :t_up:.

[Beagle]

Beagle, Thanks for all your input over the last year or so on different companies. I wish I had bought PushPay a while back, hearing your comments, but might buy some another time. I do think you should start a weekly column in the NZ Herald, and also start up a company called Beagle Asset Management :t_up:.

That's very kind of you to suggest mate. I'd like to think I help make the odd bit of difference here and there, (probably wishful thinking on my part) but would be the first to confess this is often in my own financial interests with holdings. I fear some on here see the Beagle's musings as barking and whining not opining but hopefully one or two others appreciate the hounds propensity to chew the fat on various bones of contention from time to time. Must admit... Beagle Asset management does have a bit of a ring to it..."taking a dogged approach to building wealth"... maybe one day :)

[kizame]

That's very kind of you to suggest mate. I'd like to think I help make the odd bit of difference here and there, (probably wishful thinking on my part) but would be the first to confess this is often in my own financial interests with holdings. I fear some on here see the Beagle's musings as barking and whining not opining but hopefully one or two others appreciate the hounds propensity to chew the fat on various bones of contention from time to time. Must admit... Beagle Asset management does have a bit of a ring to it..."taking a dogged approach to building wealth"... maybe one day :)

Hmmn Bam sort of a ring to it. I would like to second See weed's comment, Sound judgement and comment,maybe we tend to pick these companies but it's always interesting and nice to hear that you are on board as well.

[RupertBear]

That's very kind of you to suggest mate. I'd like to think I help make the odd bit of difference here and there, (probably wishful thinking on my part) but would be the first to confess this is often in my own financial interests with holdings. I fear some on here see the Beagle's musings as barking and whining not opining but hopefully one or two others appreciate the hounds propensity to chew the fat on various bones of contention from time to time. Must admit... Beagle Asset management does have a bit of a ring to it..."taking a dogged approach to building wealth"... maybe one day :)

Always read your comments Mr Beagle, they have helped me a lot and they helped me decide to get into this company. So thank you for taking the time to share your thoughts with us. :)

[King1212]

Time will tell Hectorplains, the 'faithspace' has been great for them and it is rightly their priority. I'm just observing that PPH could diversify when the faithspace is no longer a priority. in the meantime I'm just loving the recent PPH SP appreciation.


What about donation collected on funerals. One can register their families death over Pushpay then people that come will use thier app...no more cash giving.....

[gbogo]

... The question in my mind...is it suddenly worth 20% more just because of index inclusion ?

Answer...No but there are some mitigating factors. (I know this seems like a contradiction but this is how the little birdie explained it to me).
Once in the NZX50 analysts are more likely to start covering it. Institutions other than tracker funds are more likely to take an interest in it and brokers who are managing funds with full discretion on behalf of clients are possibly more likely to take a position in it. Further, brokers are more likely to recommend it to their clients as part of their normal advisory role.
The stock isn't suddenly intrinsically worth 20% more but it could be that with wider market acceptance institutions and other investors are prepared to pay more.



agreed. FNZC, for example, does not cover it yet and I think it would make a big difference if they did, just as you suggest. I understand that now it is in the NZX50, they may indeed start some analysis in 2018.

separately, I subscribe to the broadly-accepted idea that passive funds are a better way to invest due to lower fees and the inability of active managers (except for you and I, of course!) to sustain out-performance, especially for markets that I cannot keep a close eye on. but the kind of price action around PPH in the last week, makes a mockery of passive performance, doesn't it? we saw them coming and bought up ahead of their forced buying, thus reducing their return (though of course they will look fine against their benchmarks) and increasing active managers' returns.

but even if I'm right on this, let's not make too much of it, or we may kill the golden goose.. is it just NZ with a relatively thin market where this is exacerbated? or are there similar opportunities globally?

[Beagle]

Good question and probably worthy of some investigation. It seems to me that this is not an isolated incident by any means and is indeed a free lunch for astute investors obtaining a first mover advantage over passive funds. I saw the same thing when CVT was included into the NZX50 and that went from ~ $10 to ~ $12 approx. a 20% gain as well. Sigh..if only investing was always this easy :)

I guess the passive funds do okay for the fact that the inclusion draws the extra interest we've discussed. I'd like to think in more liquid markets the effects weren't quite as pronounced but perhaps that's wishful thinking ? Agree 100% about not jawboning on this issue for too long...better to let some things stay under the radar as much as possible. Price action today will be interesting. Will we see some retracement on the gain so that canny investors who sold some on Friday can replenish their holding at a cheaper price ?

[iceman]

Interesting depth for PPH now pre open with highest bid at $ 3.88 and lowest sell at $ 4.85 with only a few shares. No doubt this gap will close up when market opens

[winner69]

Market cap now about US$800m

Better say that’s still awfully cheap or else will be shot down in flames

Chart looks pretty good though

Come next announcement early Jan and we be looking at $5 I reckon ...the market is @ funny thing.

[minimoke]

Interesting depth for PPH now pre open with highest bid at $ 3.88 and lowest sell at $ 4.85 with only a few shares. No doubt this gap will close up when market opens
Didnt take long - both now at 4.14

[winner69]

Hey Mr Beagle ...as a matter of interest is your personal trainer and your ‘little birdie’ the one and the same?

They tend to under guess the value of Push ...wonder their latest gues / valuation is?

[minimoke]

n ...the market is @ funny thing.
I'm loath to say it - but I think the Mr Market still likes technology. Having not quite got over the dot.com opportunities and now all the hype around crypts I think there is an appetite to be seen holding tech stocks - especially a unicorn

[winner69]

Do you mean like this ~170k 2016 Audi RS6 with an oddly recognisable plate I spotted a few days ago? a fairly excessive company car or xmas just came early for someone. There is one on trademe for about 200k if anyone is looking to treat themselves hahaha.

8526

Hope he’s traded up to a more expensive model

[minimoke]

In todays announcement
On 15 December 2017, the Crowther Family trust sold 1,800,675 Shares through on-markettransactions for an aggregate price of $7,268,964.84 (being an average price of $4.0368 perShare).

 On 17 December 2017, the Crowther Family Trust gifted 235,000 Shares for no considerationto the MSix20 Foundation, a not for profit corporation formed on the laws of Washington, USA.Eliot Barry Crowther is the president of the MSix20 Foundation and has the power to control thedisposition of, and the voting rights attaching to, the Shares held by the MSix20 Foundation.

[Beagle]

Hey Mr Beagle ...as a matter of interest is your personal trainer and your ‘little birdie’ the one and the same?

They tend to under guess the value of Push ...wonder their latest gues / valuation is?

LOL that personal trainer with his $3.50 by Christmas was pretty conservative eh. Looked silly when it was $2 though. Yes personal trainer and little birdie one and the same mate, personal trainer was his earlier nickname. I'll let you know when little birdie gives me an update on estimated listing date on the NASDAQ and / or valuation update.
The little birdie on the AIR thread is a different birdie though my snout is telling me he's just as reliable.

[Baa_Baa]

There is a recently reliable pattern in PPH, which initiated again last Friday with the perky high. A period of 6-8 weeks follows with sideways or more commonly sideways/down price action. Or the pattern is broken this time and my analysis is bogus. Eyes on this as well.

[King1212]

There is a recently reliable pattern in PPH, which initiated again last Friday with the perky high. A period of 6-8 weeks follows with sideways or more commonly sideways/down price action. Or the pattern is broken this time and my analysis is bogus. Eyes on this as well.


Yes u are right. I normally took profit when reach high.then the sp will be down for couple weeks then up again. However, this time I am holding it as dec revenue is normally high n update just in 3 weeks time don't want to kiss the boat...

[Beagle]

Being up 20% because of index inclusion, logic suggests to me that a period of consolidation is the most likely short term course of action, all the more so as the stock as Baa Baa and others will have observed has a history of consolidating / slightly declining after each new push up. I am not convinced 100% that the awaited news on 10 January will be the start of the next leg up, its too soon based on historic lengths of time of previous consolidations, (unless of course they considerably exceed expectations). 20% has been a big move in one week.

[iceman]

Being up 20% because of index inclusion, logic suggests to me that a period of consolidation is the most likely short term course of action, all the more so as the stock as Baa Baa and others will have observed has a history of consolidating / slightly declining after each new push up. I am not convinced 100% that the awaited news on 10 January will be the start of the next leg up, its too soon based on historic lengths of time of previous consolidations, (unless of course they considerably exceed expectations). 20% has been a big move in one week.

Don't worry about it mate. Just wait for them to continue doing what they're doing and the NASDAQ listing. We'll be well rewarded for our FAITH and patience

[King1212]

Being up 20% because of index inclusion, logic suggests to me that a period of consolidation is the most likely short term course of action, all the more so as the stock as Baa Baa and others will have observed has a history of consolidating / slightly declining after each new push up. I am not convinced 100% that the awaited news on 10 January will be the start of the next leg up, its too soon based on historic lengths of time of previous consolidations, (unless of course they considerably exceed expectations). 20% has been a big move in one week.

PPH updates n results have always exceeded market value expectations

[Beagle]

Don't worry about it mate. Just wait for them to continue doing what they're doing and the NASDAQ listing. We'll be well rewarded for our FAITH and patience

Yeap, really looking forward to that !

[winner69]

PPH updates n results have always exceeded market value expectations

Emphasis added ...so we don't forget

[Beagle]

Emphasis added ...so we don't forget
Okay I hear ya...naughty dog couldn't resist taking some Christmas bonus on Friday at $4.15. (The problem with being self employed is nobody is going to pay you a Christmas bonus you need to organize your own) Still holding a reasonable sized number but probably should cover at least half those sold before 10 January. Sitting on too much cash now...better not tell any Mercedes dealers that lol

[King1212]

Okay I hear ya...naughty dog couldn't resist taking some Christmas bonus on Friday at $4.15. (The problem with being self employed is nobody is going to pay you a Christmas bonus you need to organize your own) Still holding a reasonable sized number but probably should cover at least half those sold before 10 January. Sitting on too much cash now...better not tell any Mercedes dealers that lol

Mr dog...no signs of slowing down...hopefully u still got some! It will go up higher when 10th January comes.

[Beagle]

Yes it has been surprisingly resilient after the quick 20% rise due to index inclusion. As noted above I still have a reasonable holding but will need to add to that over the holidays at some stage to make it more meaningful.

[sb9]

Strong close on ASX y’day at 3.98 which equates to NZ 4.37.

[winner69]

Strong close on ASX y’day at 3.98 which equates to NZ 4.37.

Wow ....can’t wait until Wednesday

Will be exciting

[Ace]

Strong close on ASX y’day at 3.98 which equates to NZ 4.37.

I've been watching this on the sidelines since the start of the year and kind of regret not getting in. Interestingly; PPH MCAP has historically been trading comfortably at around 7.6x ACMR, accounting for the 25M USD capital raise and new definitions of ACMR. From the 11th of OCT when the 100M ACMR goal was brought forward to 31/12/17 PPH then started trading at around 12x the Septembers quarter of ACMR at 67.5M, with the shareprice sitting nicely at $2.96.

Now that we are only a week or so from having 100M ACMR confirmed, the share price has followed - and again our Mcap is sitting comfortably at 12x ACMR of 100m. Divide that by the outstanding shares of 274M this results in a share price of exactly $4.38 NZD.

Now that PPH is in the NZX 50 and with a lot of exciting news in the pipeline including a US listing, 70M revenue for FY18, and transaction volume target of 10B from 2.2B annualised, is an MCAP of 12x ACMR the new norm? or will we see our historical average of 7.6x ACMR return? or will MCAP vs. ACMR only increase? Or is looking at the value of PPH through ACMR utilising the wrong parameters? Watching with interest and caution.

[fiasco]

Interesting article which would relate to PushPay as well, given Venmo is a competitor:

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/032415/how-safe-venmo-and-why-it-free.asp?utm_source=personalized&utm_campaign=www.investopedia.com&utm_term=11703966&utm_medium=email

Also

https://blog.capterra.com/alternatives-to-paypal-for-churches/

[winner69]

Strong close on ASX y’day at 3.98 which equates to NZ 4.37.

Hope it opens in the 430/440 range today

That be good

No worries

[Beagle]

Hope it opens in the 430/440 range today

That be good

No worries
Looking very well bid mate. Plenty of people think 2018 is going to be a huge one for PPH. We are well positioned :)

[Ace]

Looking very well bid mate. Plenty of people think 2018 is going to be a huge one for PPH. We are well positioned :)

2018 might well be pushpays year. Now I need to find a way to wriggle my way in to be well positioned as well. Would you or winner have extra holdings to sell by any chance? :p

[BlackPeter]

2018 might well be pushpays year. Now I need to find a way to wriggle my way in to be well positioned as well. Would you or winner have extra holdings to sell by any chance? :p

How many do you need? There are currently more than 100,000 shares on offer for an average price of $4.36 ...

[Ace]

How many do you need? There are currently more than 100,000 shares on offer for an average price of $4.36 ...

Not that many. Would prefer a belated Boxing Day special!

[BlackPeter]

Not that many. Would prefer a belated Boxing Day special!

If you are quick - nearly 40 k on offer for $4.22 ;); But who knows - during the holidays are prices anyway more volatile ... can go any way. I shall leave you to it ...

[Ace]

If you are quick - nearly 40 k on offer for $4.22 ;); But who knows - during the holidays are prices anyway more volatile ... can go any way. I shall leave you to it ...

Thanks BP. Will keep a note of that! I’ll let you know how I progress... hhaha

[see weed]

Sorry to gate crash the party but have finally bought some on Friday and today. There seems to be not many shares to share around. About 274,000,000, and found it quite hard to buy. Holders are not in any hurry to sell.

[ShouldHaveHeld]

Have not been looking at my portfolio up, though small. I am glad that PPH is doing so well :)

[iceman]

And here we go:

Pushpay achieves US$100m ACMR target
Auckland, New Zealand | Redmond, Washington, USA – 3 January 2018
On 11 October 2017, Pushpay Holdings Limited (NZSX:PPH, ASX:PPH, ‘Pushpay’ or ‘the Company’) brought forward its US$100 million Annualised Committed Monthly Revenue (ACMR) target from 31 March 2018 to 31 December 2017.

Pushpay is pleased to announce that as at 31 December 2017, it achieved its target of US$100 million ACMR. Pushpay will provide further details of the ACMR increase in its quarterly operational update, which will be released on 10 January 2018.

Chris Heaslip, Pushpay’s CEO and Co-founder said, “Achieving US$100 million ACMR within 27 months after reaching US$10 million ACMR, is a significant milestone for the business. We continue to focus on scaling the business in the US faith sector in order to maximise shareholder value over the long term.

“Pushpay remains in a position to reach its targets of FY18 NZ GAAP revenue guidance of US$70 million and breakeven on a monthly cash flow basis prior to the end of calendar 2018.”
Contact
Sarah Elder | Investor Relations | Pushpay Holdings Limited
P: +64 21 637 449 | E: investors@pushpay.com
www.pushpay.com

About Pushpay
Pushpay provides engagement solutions that enable meaningful connections and mobile commerce tools that facilitate fast, secure and easy non point of sale payments. Pushpay provides convenient, personalised and intuitive engagement and payment solutions to the faith sector, not-for-profit organisations and education providers.
Pushpay receives funding from Callaghan Innovation to help cover the commercialisation of innovation.
Pushpay is an award-winning company, team and product. For more information visit
www.pushpay.com/investors/awards.
To download the Pushpay App, visit the iTunes App Store or Google Play and search for “Pushpay”.
ENDS

[Faker]

Wonder if the acmr target has already been factored in the price. We will soon find out!

[Beagle]

Doing what they say they will do... yet again...nice ! :)

[winner69]

Wonder if the acmr target has already been factored in the price. We will soon find out!

Maybe a bit but confirmation will help and take the share price to the next level ...like factoring in $250m ACMR confidently knowing it will happen

[minimoke]

Wonder if the acmr target has already been factored in the price. We will soon find out!
Up 4.3% to $4.35 at the moment. Just the kind of start to a new year I like!

[see weed]

Up 4.3% to $4.35 at the moment. Just the kind of start to a new year I like! Silly me bought whole lot at $4.37 on open, and knew should have waited 10 minutes. Are well, just have to buy whole lot more at cheaper price as it goes down

[Beagle]

I was going to buy more but saw that bid and wondered if it was you mate. Yes you chased too hard and I wasn't prepared to follow at that level. Try and hoover some more up when there's less noise.

[gbogo]

...
Now that we are only a week or so from having 100M ACMR confirmed, the share price has followed - and again our Mcap is sitting comfortably at 12x ACMR of 100m. Divide that by the outstanding shares of 274M this results in a share price of exactly $4.38 NZD.

Now that PPH is in the NZX 50 and with a lot of exciting news in the pipeline including a US listing, 70M revenue for FY18, and transaction volume target of 10B from 2.2B annualised, is an MCAP of 12x ACMR the new norm? or will we see our historical average of 7.6x ACMR return? or will MCAP vs. ACMR only increase? Or is looking at the value of PPH through ACMR utilising the wrong parameters? Watching with interest and caution.

$4.38 would be reasonable given the above, but this company's ability to keep delivering against such aggressive targets is phenomenal and I think under-appreciated by the market. Index inclusion and broker coverage + being tipped in the 2018 broker list should all help push on but it just takes time - this market does not react as fast as others, even allowing for holiday mode.

[see weed]

I was going to buy more but saw that bid and wondered if it was you mate. Yes you chased too hard and I wasn't prepared to follow at that level. Try and hoover some more up when there's less noise.
Wow, this things all over the show. Dropped my buy price to 4.19 and got another 8000 but it went to 4.16 for a few seconds just after that. This is good for the heart beat, won't have to go for walk later:D .

[gbogo]

Wow, this things all over the show. Dropped my buy price to 4.19 and got another 8000 but it went to 4.16 for a few seconds just after that. This is good for the heart beat, won't have to go for walk later:D .

$120k-worth sold in 2 secs from $4.29 to $4.16. then $160k-worth bought over the next 25 mins to take it back to where it was. Somebody panicked...

[Beagle]

Wow, this things all over the show. Dropped my buy price to 4.19 and got another 8000 but it went to 4.16 for a few seconds just after that. This is good for the heart beat, won't have to go for walk later:D .

LOL that's funny mate :lol: Small problem though...my doctor tells me that's not the sort of exercise that's good for your heart :)

[see weed]

There appears to be a blockage at 4.37. Someone keeps drip feeding more to sell.

[couta1]

There appears to be a blockage at 4.37. Someone keeps drip feeding more to sell. HaHa, that would probably be you, if you bought them under $2.

[see weed]

Not me, I'm a late comer, only started buying on 22/12/17 at 4.17:).

[King1212]

Ehmm...wonder I should top up the last time at this price before 10th Jan....if the news out n they will IPO in USA early than expected....will see the sp heading north....what do u think gurus?

[nomis]

Ehmm...wonder I should top up the last time at this price before 10th Jan....if the news out n they will IPO in USA early than expected....will see the sp heading north....what do u think gurus?


My thoughts too, on this I topped up again at 4.39 today - Sold my entire holding in Auckland airport to do so, Have had AIA for 2 years while I wasnt massively impressed or disappointed I wanted to free up the capital to put it all into PPH

Whats every one elses thoughts?

[minimoke]

I hold AIA in Portfolio One. Its in the set and forget portfolio. It will stay there as I cant be bothered managing that portfolio.

I have PPH in Portfolio Two which will be actively managed. i have bought with a 5 year view. Glad to buy in when i did ($3.30) But will now hold until Stop Loss is triggered or some other reason compels me to sell. Portfolio Two is "full" at the moment as I am taking a breather in buying (went a bit mad when I did) but will look at topping up at some point. I wont be worried about too much about the price then - provided I am still getting a sense there is strong growth with what remains of the 5 years ahead)

Long story short - I reckon there is still very good growth opportunity in PPH. But as good as other shares in My Portfolio Two? that I'm not sure so my next buying will be where I see best growth at the time. Could be pouring more into SML or ATM rather than PPH. Either way I reckon it will be more fun than holding AIA

[Nigelk]

https://listingcenter.nasdaq.com/assets/initialguide.pdf

I've not been through this is detail, but it would look like they would only qualify for Standard 1 currently, based on the criterial outlined on P7.
If they want the market to see them as more of a premium offering, they may have to wait to meet the market cap and revenue requirements of a higher standard.

[nomis]

I have PPH in Portfolio Two which will be actively managed. i have bought with a 5 year view. Glad to buy in when i did ($3.30) But will now hold until Stop Loss is triggered or some other reason compels me to sell. Portfolio Two is "full" at the moment as I am taking a breather in buying (went a bit mad when I did) but will look at topping up at some point. I wont be worried about too much about the price then - provided I am still getting a sense there is strong growth with what remains of the 5 years ahead)

Long story short - I reckon there is still very good growth opportunity in PPH. But as good as other shares in My Portfolio Two? that I'm not sure so my next buying will be where I see best growth at the time. Could be pouring more into SML or ATM rather than PPH. Either way I reckon it will be more fun than holding AIA


I brought my biggest piece of PPH at 3.12 a while ago and so far happy with the 70% growth, Im planing to hold long term at this stage.

[gbogo]

Have we all bought it already? Is there anyone else left to buy it on more good news? Maybe buy the rumour, sell the fact? I hope not. I’m hoping funds and bigger brokers will have to buy more. But there don’t seem to be any pessimists on here!

[blobbles]

Have we all bought it already? Is there anyone else left to buy it on more good news? Maybe buy the rumour, sell the fact? I hope not. I’m hoping funds and bigger brokers will have to buy more. But there don’t seem to be any pessimists on here!

It's pretty hard to be pessimistic. Continual good news is a sign of a well run company. Outperforming targets is a sign of excellence.

We can always buy more too :-)

[Beagle]

Just looking at what's possible by the time they list on the NASDAQ.
Snapchat and a few others trading on 11 x sales so if we use that metric and PPH grow ACMR to say US$175m by the time they list in say December ? that suggests a market cap of US$1,925m. Convert that at 0.72 = NZ$2,674m. On 274.5m shares that suggests a possible price target of $9.74.
Appears to have a reasonable prospect to double your money if everything goes to plan.
Currently trading on ~ 8.5 times ACMR. Most of the potential growth this year, in my opinion, will come from growth in the ACMR as opposed to the potential NASDAQ listing itself. Disc: Modest holding as part of a well diversified portfolio

[peat]

well I for one wouldn't buy right now, having been in at under 2 , am now out, - sure I could've made more but at some point things get very expensive for having no actual profits.
Its not that it isnt a good company with good prospects and a habit of out performing but after tripling in the last year the chart would indicate to me that there needs to be a period of consolidation
things go wrong, black swans etc, not good to have too much in one company etc.

so there you go gbogo. not everyone is in!

[winner69]

Just looking at what's possible by the time they list on the NASDAQ.
Snapchat and a few others trading on 11 x sales so if we use that metric and PPH grow ACMR to say US$175m by the time they list in say December ? that suggests a market cap of US$1,925m. Convert that at 0.72 = NZ$2,674m. On 274.5m shares that suggests a possible price target of $9.74.
Appears to have a reasonable prospect to double your money if everything goes to plan.
Currently trading on ~ 8.5 times ACMR. Most of the potential growth this year, in my opinion, will come from growth in the ACMR as opposed to the potential NASDAQ listing itself. Disc: Modest holding as part of a well diversified portfolio

I reckon 11 times ACMR is a bit outrageous

But I’m wrong more often than right so maybe you ‘modest’ holding should become a ‘more than modest’ holding based on these numbers

Also reckon 5 bucks beckons after tomorrow’s announcement with its pretty charts

[Beagle]

See what tomorrow's presentation looks like and go from there mate.

[King1212]

Pushpay surpasses US$100m ACMR target by US$6.4m, US market listing this calendar yearAuckland, New Zealand | Redmond, Washington, USA – 10 January 2018

[Baddarcy]

Pushpay surpasses US$100m ACMR target by US$6.4m, US market listing this calendar yearAuckland, New Zealand | Redmond, Washington, USA – 10 January 2018

Crikey they did it easy in the end, i was expecting something around 101m-102m

[JeremyALD]

Pretty impressive stuff really..hard to believe this was $1.60 when they did their last cap raise

[King1212]

Pretty impressive stuff really..hard to believe this was $1.60 when they did their last cap raise

40 cents....split in 4....

[iceman]

Pretty impressive stuff really..hard to believe this was $1.60 when they did their last cap raise

Yes this is impressive and moving along at pace. The increase in ARPC and the retention rates are the metrics I mostly watch and they are both very encouraging. Well done PPH.
Also like that they are going to start providing quarterly revenue targets. A happy holder.

[King1212]

Come on gurus ..do up your calculations..what the sp worth now as by next year the same today...the revenue will be at least $210 m....

[Baddarcy]

I thought i was most excited about the staff headcount remaining almost static (it's a personal hangover from DIL which has similar growth, but the headcount exploded at the same time leaving revenue almost static)...but then i saw this

"Pushpay intends to pursue a US market listing this calendar year. See more under ‘US market listing’"

I'm sure the last announcement said 'sometime in the next 3 years'

[JeremyALD]

I thought i was most excited about the staff headcount remaining almost static (it's a personal hangover from DIL which has similar growth, but the headcount exploded at the same time leaving revenue almost static)...but then i saw this

"Pushpay intends to pursue a US market listing this calendar year. See more under ‘US market listing’"

I'm sure the last announcement said 'sometime in the next 3 years'

I think they've gone from three years, to 15 months to 12 months. And they're staying on the ASX and NZX too.

I bought a few more this morning. Glad I had this on the 2018 stock picks :)

[Beagle]

A material beat in ACMR, confirmation of plans to list on the NASDAQ by Dec 2018 (bringing this forward slightly), customer retention rate over 95% and almost static headcount all impressed me. Bought more this morning and looking forward to ongoing strong growth in ACMR in 2018 and the listing on the Nasdaq will be the icing on the cake.

[gbogo]

agreed. the flat headcount and slight cash increase are very positive. market not reacting though. will be interesting to hear questions on the conf call.