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peat
12-07-2017, 09:58 AM
Guilty as charged......thou in my defense i would like to have a chance to read it before the market opens
you'll have a whole day! hahah take your time and give us the juice... looks okay but yeh complicated, need to digest....

Ghost Monkey
12-07-2017, 09:59 AM
hahaha, almost had a heart attack. Jumped onto the NZX site and the first notification I see is a trading halt on PPH!!

All good, having a read through of the update now.

Baddarcy
12-07-2017, 10:01 AM
Is it a good result though? They've moved break even out a whole year and growth has slowed in the last quarter. I'm a bit nervous.

Growth has slowed slightly from the last two quarters (old method) 8.4m, 8.2m to 7.4m but the 2 quarters before that were 6.6m and 7.7m so i think it is more a bumpy linear rather than slowing. Thou if you look at just the last 3 quarters in isolation it does look like it is slowing 8.4 to 8.2 to 7.4.

Feels like they have decided to start reading from the Xero playbook rather than the DIL playbook. Raise money and go for broke rather than get positive cashflow and grow more conservatively like DIL.

Worked for the Xero shareprice !

winner69
12-07-2017, 10:06 AM
Where has grow slow? It is more than $62m

I think Jeremy is saying annual growth now only 128% compared to 158% as at March and 207% as at Dec

That's what happens - known as growth rate decline - perfectly normal

JeremyALD
12-07-2017, 10:08 AM
Growth has slowed slightly from the last two quarters (old method) 8.4m, 8.2m to 7.4m but the 2 quarters before that were 6.6m and 7.7m so i think it is more a bumpy linear rather than slowing. Thou if you look at just the last 3 quarters in isolation it does look like it is slowing 8.4 to 8.2 to 7.4.

Feels like they have decided to start reading from the Xero playbook rather than the DIL playbook. Raise money and go for broke rather than get positive cashflow and grow more conservatively like DIL.

Worked for the Xero shareprice !

I'm primiarly looking at slowing of customer numbers, but yeah agree with your thoughts. Will be very interesting to watch this one over the next 12 months.

King1212
12-07-2017, 10:13 AM
Assuming they can execute all strategies and listed at USA....don't u think it will become billions company? As tech company in USA all started with billions cap market?

winner69
12-07-2017, 10:13 AM
Bugger - I see they have changed methodology so my holy moly and wow wow statements are probably wrong

Do they do this on purpose to hide bad things or something - totally confused now

Always a red flag to me such behaviour

Baddarcy
12-07-2017, 10:22 AM
Bugger - I see they have changed methodology so my holy moly and wow wow statements are probably wrong

Do they do this on purpose to hide bad things or something - totally confused now

Always a red flag to me such behaviour

Yes that gets on my nerves too.

There is a slide in there that says they are/were still on target to deliver the year end breakeven cashflow and $USD72 prioir to the change in targets.

winner69
12-07-2017, 10:25 AM
Yes that gets on my nerves too.

There is a slide in there that says they are/were still on target to deliver the year end breakeven cashflow and $USD72 prioir to the change in targets.

Numbers all over the place eh

Suppose they'll come out and say they need to restate their accounts next

Getting totally confused

winner69
12-07-2017, 10:29 AM
Pushpay need to give actual revenue numbers by quarter .......not all these made up numbers

Baddarcy
12-07-2017, 11:11 AM
Pushpay need to give actual revenue numbers by quarter .......not all these made up numbers

At least the didn't use my favourite word 'normalised' !

There is a comment buried in there saying that this new method is standard for measuring fast growing SaaS companies. I'm assuming by this they mean in the US, in which case makes sense if they are targeting a US listing in the next 3 years, they can start building up a case the US buyers can follow.

Still a pain in the butt, especially as the new method seems to produce numbers that are all over the place.

I think overall i am happy with the change, still pondering thou, a new larger target with a nice round number only 3 months delayed seems ok. Not super happy about the cashflow being delayed, but the strategy worked well for Xero in the end,

winner69
12-07-2017, 11:15 AM
Yes that gets on my nerves too.

There is a slide in there that says they are/were still on target to deliver the year end breakeven cashflow and $USD72 prioir to the change in targets.

Maybe year end cash flow even but as they spend the new money in growth probably go cash flow negative again.

winner69
12-07-2017, 11:23 AM
Wish the share price chart would look like the chart on Page 22 of the Investor Presentation

Any more insights from the briefing?

Mush
12-07-2017, 11:24 AM
Private placement targeting $1.50-1.55

sb9
12-07-2017, 11:26 AM
Private placement targeting $1.50-1.55

Yes, picked that bit from conf call and also cash flow break even on a monthly basis by end of FY 18.

Might see the sp under pressure in the short term, brace yourself folks...

Baddarcy
12-07-2017, 11:27 AM
Maybe year end cash flow even but as they spend the new money in growth probably go cash flow negative again.

Yes agreed.

winner69
12-07-2017, 11:28 AM
Suppose a 9%/10% dilution isn't too bad .....in the circumstances

sb9
12-07-2017, 11:31 AM
Bit surprised not many questions from pundits/analysts, just the one about placement price.....

King1212
12-07-2017, 11:35 AM
Next week ASM will see a good direction..?

Hoop
12-07-2017, 12:00 PM
Suppose a 9%/10% dilution isn't too bad .....in the circumstances

I see about 6.5% dilution at $1.50 (where did I go wrong?)
Actually, taking time to reflect on the announcements I've decided I'm not that happy with the expected result...quite a large slowing down in growth these last six months considering they've hiring a lot more staff / upskilled their marketing dept and looking at their market sector pie chart showing they have only scratched the surface of their targeted market...and lack of competitors in their market!!

Disc: holding too many:p

winner69
12-07-2017, 12:10 PM
Hoops - I reckon 23m new shares at $1.50 on current number of shares being 250m

Say 8%/9% dilution depending on how you like calculating it.

(Did you not convert to NZ$)

Hoop
12-07-2017, 12:47 PM
Hoops - I reckon 23m new shares at $1.50 on current number of shares being 250m

Say 8%/9% dilution depending on how you like calculating it.

(Did you not convert to NZ$)

(Did you not convert to NZ$)...ooops:blush:

King1212
12-07-2017, 12:55 PM
The moose spoke:

#1 by The Moose 1 hour ago
Very interesting play by PPH management - cashburning techies are following market expectation of cashflow positivity, while these guys go the opposite direction. Must see a lot of value still left in the market, even with their market-leading position. Management haven't put a step wrong yet, so I accept that if they see long-term shareholder-value being built through an even higher growth rate, so be it.
PPH continually surprise by beating their own lofty forecasts - they know what they want and they are going to get it. Hopefully all of it!
"We believe a US listing will expand Pushpay's shareholder base, increase liquidity and enable the company to allow better access to capital, thereby increasing funding alternatives to support the company's growth strategy,"
NZX, you are on notice here. You're on the verge of losing yet another great company growing faster than Xero to overseas interests. Saw the same thing happen to Diligent - let's hope history doesn't repeat here!

Hoop
12-07-2017, 01:20 PM
The latest Aussi depth shows Mr Market is happy with the announcements..:)

forest
12-07-2017, 01:51 PM
"We believe a US listing will expand Pushpay's shareholder base, increase liquidity and enable the company to allow better access to capital, thereby increasing funding alternatives to support the company's growth strategy,"

If management needs better access to capital than it seems to me that PPH is going to follow a path of diluting share holdings and increasing risk for share holders.
Mm maybe understandable the share price has dropped about a dollar sinds its high.

Entrep
12-07-2017, 02:05 PM
@Hoop wouldn't a move to $1.50 trigger all the technical sell signals?

suse
12-07-2017, 02:15 PM
this from a herald article in Jan
Chief executive and co-founder Chris Heaslip told investors on a conference call that the company expects to see the majority of the benefits from the Bluebridge acquisition to be apparent in the September quarter, with technology migration to be completed in the March quarter and new functionality added in the June period which he said will have a non-material impact on metrics.

so maybe we will see better things later...

King1212
12-07-2017, 02:21 PM
To be honest nz market does not appreciate a good tech company...will probably see this company move to Nasdaq USA...will start with billion company....good luck guys....wish got in yesterday..but let see the market reaction....tmrw

Hoop
12-07-2017, 07:03 PM
@Hoop wouldn't a move to $1.50 trigger all the technical sell signals?

Disciplined TAers would not be holding PPH they would ditched them back in Mid-April
PPH is in a downtrend (a bear market) the only times there's been buy signals has been during sucker rallies...
One noticeable feature is a weakening of the Bear there has been 3 downward movements stopped at 1.60 creating an attempted bullish bottoming scenario (need a higher high to complete the bottoming pattern)..However a break below 1.60 will reinforce the bear market is still operating..(lower low lower high)

JeremyALD
12-07-2017, 07:19 PM
Disciplined TAers would not be holding PPH they would ditched them back in Mid-April
PPH is in a downtrend (a bear market) the only times there's been buy signals has been during sucker rallies...
One noticeable feature is a weakening of the Bear there has been 3 downward movements stopped at 1.60 creating an attempted bullish bottoming scenario (need a higher high to complete the bottoming pattern)..However a break below 1.60 will reinforce the bear market is still operating..(lower low lower high)
Are you considering selling Hoop?

iceman
12-07-2017, 10:58 PM
I see about 6.5% dilution at $1.50 (where did I go wrong?)
Actually, taking time to reflect on the announcements I've decided I'm not that happy with the expected result...quite a large slowing down in growth these last six months considering they've hiring a lot more staff / upskilled their marketing dept and looking at their market sector pie chart showing they have only scratched the surface of their targeted market...and lack of competitors in their market!!

Disc: holding too many:p

I agree with this Hoop. I find it hard to be pleased with this result. Targets being revised and numbers changed so its very difficult to make any sense of it all. It will be interesting to see where Mr Market prices PPH when halt will be lifted. On the positive side, the company is still growing fast and they seem very confident in further large growth.

Hoop
13-07-2017, 12:55 AM
Are you considering selling Hoop?

Not at the moment Jeremy..
My holding is a spec, so as long as I am not too deeply underwater I will go where the market current takes me..my current holding averages at just under 170NZc so I can tolerate another support break or two...I'm into this growth story thing..They tell me PPH is still growing strongly (divine folk never lie do they :rolleyes:) albeit at the shareholders expense

blobbles
13-07-2017, 08:44 AM
Yep, I think we will see a drop to $1.50 in the short term based on uncertainty in results. But if you are holding on to these, I think you should be holding on as a long play. If they can maintain their growth rates, or at least keep them above 40% YOY for the next few years... I say this is one where you should be an investor, not a speculator :-). Ignore short term price movements and only look at exiting when you no longer like their fundamentals. And currently... what's not to like?

First black mark in my book though, they said profitability by year end this year... now its next year. Sure, they are doing it to go after more growth, which is probably fine in the industry they are in. But they said they would do one thing and did another, so a black mark against management for me.

JeremyALD
13-07-2017, 09:14 AM
Yep, I think we will see a drop to $1.50 in the short term based on uncertainty in results. But if you are holding on to these, I think you should be holding on as a long play. If they can maintain their growth rates, or at least keep them above 40% YOY for the next few years... I say this is one where you should be an investor, not a speculator :-). Ignore short term price movements and only look at exiting when you no longer like their fundamentals. And currently... what's not to like?

First black mark in my book though, they said profitability by year end this year... now its next year. Sure, they are doing it to go after more growth, which is probably fine in the industry they are in. But they said they would do one thing and did another, so a black mark against management for me.

It also came as quite a shock. You don't expect such a significant change and annoucement in a regular quarterly update.

Ace
13-07-2017, 09:34 AM
First black mark in my book though, they said profitability by year end this year... now its next year. Sure, they are doing it to go after more growth, which is probably fine in the industry they are in. But they said they would do one thing and did another, so a black mark against management for me.

Baaed on these comments re: changes, the fact that they said it was for growth after the fact is more of an excuse than a reason to me.

Disc. Not really following Pushpay.

Baddarcy
13-07-2017, 09:43 AM
It also came as quite a shock. You don't expect such a significant change and annoucement in a regular quarterly update.

Why not? It seems like a perfect time to me. The AGM is in 5 days time, so it gives time to review it in detail and then ask questions at the AGM. Better than being caught unprepared at the AGM then coming up with questions after its too late. IMHO anyway.

As an aside, i have been keeping a close eye on the ever diminishing cash at hand and was fearing an all in capital raising was coming. This move removes that threat so i think that will provide a boost.

We have the chairman buying in too which is a good thing in my book.

We are now funded for at least the next 12 months and by all accounts they have increased the targets, whats not to like?

Thou i admit to feeling the same as you yesterday when i first read the news, i was especially disappointed with the cashflow even delay, but i've moved on today :-)

King1212
13-07-2017, 09:55 AM
$25m overnight....completed and heavy scaling....man...great support

Baddarcy
13-07-2017, 10:00 AM
looking positive on opening

iceman
13-07-2017, 10:01 AM
$25m overnight....completed and heavy scaling....man...great support

Yes a very successful placement by the looks of it from NZ/AUS institutions and the Chairman of PPH. Mr Market seems to like it too at open this morning :-)

forest
13-07-2017, 10:27 AM
Only because of the discount.

sb9
13-07-2017, 10:45 AM
Yes a very successful placement by the looks of it from NZ/AUS institutions and the Chairman of PPH. Mr Market seems to like it too at open this morning :-)

yes, the underwriters might be supporting the sp in the short term....

Beagle
13-07-2017, 10:49 AM
Only because of the discount.
Possibly slightly higher than normal for a tech company but not to an untoward extent I would have thought. U.S. listing within 36 months gives comfort to holders.

peat
13-07-2017, 10:55 AM
yes, the underwriters might be supporting the sp in the short term....

from what we've been told, the underwriters would not have been called upon - how much faith we place in that is up to you
but yes very interesting to see Ord's target price

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/ead7d341/pushpay-shares-sold-at-8-5-discount-in-bookbuild-gain-in-early-trading.html

Discl. (associated with sharechat)

sb9
13-07-2017, 11:00 AM
from what we've been told, the underwriters would not have been called upon - how much faith we place in that is up to you
but yes very interesting to see Ord's target price

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/ead7d341/pushpay-shares-sold-at-8-5-discount-in-bookbuild-gain-in-early-trading.html

Discl. (associated with sharechat)

Thanks for that. $2.74 target price as per Ord...nice :)

Hoop
13-07-2017, 01:20 PM
yes, the underwriters might be supporting the sp in the short term....

Hmmmm..no visible evidence yet ..the depth is shallow (a sign of poor +ve momentum) especially on the Aussi market so the shareprice has potential to fall back today if no new buyer show their hand....The same can be said for any underwriter support, it too maybe in play but invisible to the PPH depth data

Disc: hold

Hoop
13-07-2017, 01:27 PM
Referring to underwriters..There are no residual unsubscribed shares for Deutsche Graig or Or Minnett to off-load

Quote from PPH announcement via my email inbox ".....Pushpay Holdings Limited (NZSX:PPH,ASX:PPH,'Pushpay' or 'the Company')is pleased to advise that it has successfully completed the bookbuild for its US$25 million (NZ$35 million) private placement, at the clearing price of NZ$1.51 per share. The book was heavily subscribed with all bids subject to scaling......"

It follows on ...that an inside player bought some...as well as the scaling back this will also be seen by investors as a positive....Quote "...The bookbuild was conducted by Deutsche Craigs Limited[i] and Ord Minnett Limited, as joint lead managers and underwriters. The bookbuild was well supported, attracting bids from over 15 institutional investors across New Zealand and Australia.

Interests associated with Pushpay Chairman, Bruce Gordon, have participated in the bookbuild and has been allocated 149,007 additional shares in Pushpay at the clearing price...."

{my highlights}

sb9
13-07-2017, 01:47 PM
Hmmmm..no visible evidence yet ..the depth is shallow (a sign of poor +ve momentum) especially on the Aussi market so the shareprice has potential to fall back today if no new buyer show their hand....The same can be said for any underwriter support, it too maybe in play but invisible to the PPH depth data

Disc: hold

Hoop, my point was that the underwriters might support by buying on secondary market in the short term to show their support, will have to wait and see how sp stays over next few weeks once their support (if any) disappear as they can only buy so much...

I hope my theory is complete fallacy and like rest of holders would love to see it crank up higher...

Baddarcy
13-07-2017, 02:57 PM
Is the tide turning for the day?

bulyak
13-07-2017, 04:32 PM
This stock is showing big growth. With Annualised revenue (ACMR) at about 63mil as of end of June and about 100mil end of March 2018 they could be undervalued at present. Cash burn needs to come down and gross margin is lower than typical Saas at 55%, should be above 75%. But even taking considering those factors a multiplier of about 8 is realistic for ACMR.

winner69
13-07-2017, 07:54 PM
When shareprice went to 175 a few weeks agi I was sad and grumpy

Today it goes to 175 again and like most I am ecstatic

Wonder what a few short weeks does to one's outlook

Baddarcy
14-07-2017, 08:32 AM
When shareprice went to 175 a few weeks agi I was sad and grumpy

Today it goes to 175 again and like most I am ecstatic

Wonder what a few short weeks does to one's outlook

Yes me too. But we had momentum and volume on our side yesterday (and hopefully today too :-))

Actually i think volume wise yesterday was the 2nd highest ever (ignoring the before the split)

winner69
14-07-2017, 12:51 PM
Thanks for that. $2.74 target price as per Ord...nice :)

Wonder what those guru analyst smoke ...only 274 .....they must be joking

The personal trainer says 360 - that'll do me

Beagle
14-07-2017, 01:17 PM
Wonder what those guru analyst smoke ...only 274 .....they must be joking

The personal trainer says 360 - that'll do me

Personal trainer might have been high on natural endorphins so lets take the mid point shall we and call it $3.17 :)

sb9
14-07-2017, 01:33 PM
Wonder what those guru analyst smoke ...only 274 .....they must be joking

The personal trainer says 360 - that'll do me

I probably go with a guru analyst target than a personal trainer's one for now...:)

Good volume today and y'day with price tracking higher....looking good for next week's ASM which might see the price past $2 mark.

Hoop
14-07-2017, 01:33 PM
Mass buy signals triggered..

PPH is at its resistance level of $1.80 If it goes higher than $1.80 it is another confirmation (broken primary trend line) that PPH reverses from bear market to bull market.
Target price is spooky.. it is at the stubborn resistance price of $2.00 that PPH couldn't crack back in Feb - March this year.
Note: - the down-sloping descending triangle line is nearly identical to the closing day primary downtrend line (not marked on the chart) so one could say it has also broken the primary trend line as well..(For the intraday TAer's the primary downtrend broke today at 1.75)

Disc Hold
EDIT:..Error on chart the Bearish FAIL should be the bullish FAIL

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/PPH%2014072017_1.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/PPH%2014072017_1.png.html)

winner69
14-07-2017, 03:06 PM
Personal trainer might have been high on natural endorphins so lets take the mid point shall we and call it $3.17 :)

But guru analysts are usually 20% odd too high - so was he actually saying target likely to be $2.20 .....and he seemed to have vested interest in Push as well.

winner69
14-07-2017, 03:10 PM
Hey Beagle - probably the same guru analyst who has AIR at $2.74 - so Push is really close to $3.60 then

bulyak
14-07-2017, 03:56 PM
Post placement of 25 million there should be about 265 million shares on issue (give or take). They are budgeting to have ACMR @ 100 million by end of March. This equates to a market cap of about 790 Million (multiplier on revenue of about 7.9/current multiplier is 7.02 based on end of June ACMR of 65 Million) or $2.9-$3 bucks a share. A lot will depend on cash burn before year end. Ride the wave..... It is buy time at $1.80......

King1212
14-07-2017, 06:02 PM
Will be a while before reaching that. Too many people under water. A lot of people bought in around $2 up...remember last IPO oz

winner69
16-07-2017, 12:21 PM
Post placement of 25 million there should be about 265 million shares on issue (give or take). They are budgeting to have ACMR @ 100 million by end of March. This equates to a market cap of about 790 Million (multiplier on revenue of about 7.9/current multiplier is 7.02 based on end of June ACMR of 65 Million) or $2.9-$3 bucks a share. A lot will depend on cash burn before year end. Ride the wave..... It is buy time at $1.80......

More like 273 million shares post cap raising - makes your multiplier over 8

Isn't this very high? Looking at where companies with equivalent growth and margins are trading 5 to 6 seems more realistic

Another question - as only 1/3 of Push revenues come from licensing fees (rest is variable based on throughput) is using multiples of stated ACMR the correct way anyway?

Whatever way you look at it I've come to the conclusion that that guru analyst target of $2.70 odd is about it at the moment. Betcha that is based on an assumption of Push having anything up to $1 billion of revenue in 10 years as well.

Just a few thoughts mate - I just reckon you too excited

sb9
17-07-2017, 10:49 AM
Will be a while before reaching that. Too many people under water. A lot of people bought in around $2 up...remember last IPO oz

Yes, $2 mark is very key test point imo. If and when it gets there, I guess a lot of holders who got in around that price originally might want to derisk and there'll be bit of selling pressure around that level. Once we're pas that period, I expect the sp to settle around mid to high $2...

sb9
17-07-2017, 10:51 AM
And we've ASM coming up tomorrow, would anyone attending from here be kind enough to post their thoughts pls.

bulyak
17-07-2017, 11:11 AM
Interesting comeback. OK, if you factor in 273 million shares on issue post placement then it looks more like a share price of about 2.89 once they reach the ACMR of 100 million. So I'm happy with the $2.70 share price you refer to. I stand by the 7.9-8 multiplier. Their quarterly report says that ACMR is 62 million, but take your point that a component of that is variable based fees. Hence the reason for the Gross Margin at 55%, (should be above 70% for a B to C - typical SaaS. The multiplier gets penalised for this. What I like is the 70% plus growth for this type of turnover. with 95% plus customer retention. As long as they can keep that kind of growth occurring then I feel the multiplier of 8 applies. Yes the cash burn is a concern but acceptable as long as the growth continues. But the minute that growth stops they better have the cash reserves in place to support their strategy. This is a big market they have found, easily over 1 billion. The Yanks like to donate, especially when it comes to the higher powers.

sb9
17-07-2017, 11:28 AM
Current depth on ASX looks very interesting, if that was to be true and not staged by anyone a definite breakout looks to be imminent...we shall wait and see.

winner69
17-07-2017, 12:05 PM
Interesting comeback. OK, if you factor in 273 million shares on issue post placement then it looks more like a share price of about 2.89 once they reach the ACMR of 100 million. So I'm happy with the $2.70 share price you refer to. I stand by the 7.9-8 multiplier. Their quarterly report says that ACMR is 62 million, but take your point that a component of that is variable based fees. Hence the reason for the Gross Margin at 55%, (should be above 70% for a B to C - typical SaaS. The multiplier gets penalised for this. What I like is the 70% plus growth for this type of turnover. with 95% plus customer retention. As long as they can keep that kind of growth occurring then I feel the multiplier of 8 applies. Yes the cash burn is a concern but acceptable as long as the growth continues. But the minute that growth stops they better have the cash reserves in place to support their strategy. This is a big market they have found, easily over 1 billion. The Yanks like to donate, especially when it comes to the higher powers.

Listed SaaS companies with Push growth and margin profiles trade at 4 to 7 times with a median around 5.5 times

Why should Push be near or better than the top of the range?

MikeE
17-07-2017, 12:17 PM
What listed SaaS company has Push growth?

bulyak
17-07-2017, 12:31 PM
Yeh, fair question. I agree that the median for SaaS companies is usually around 5.6, which are publicly traded. It would appear that Xero has created a benchmark on the NZX. So why not use them for this exercise. Their growth is about 45% at the moment. Through in a couple other factors like gross margin at 75% and cash burn reducing dramatically and total market potential being in excess of 1 billion and you have a multiplier of about 9.7 times the ACMR of 350 million last I checked via their annual report (probably a bit higher since their annual report was release a month ago) and you come at a market cap of about 3.5 billion. So one would say their share price of 25.5-26 is about right. As sb9 has pointed out. There is not another SaaS company with the same turnover that is meeting the growth rate the PPH is having at present. If they could improve their gross margin and reduce the cash burn, then I feel the multiplier would increase.

sb9
17-07-2017, 02:11 PM
Big seller @ $1.90 has been swiped off just like that...

ShouldHaveHeld
17-07-2017, 02:22 PM
I thought it would of hit a wall there

peat
17-07-2017, 02:32 PM
And we've ASM coming up tomorrow, would anyone attending from here be kind enough to post their thoughts pls.
theres a web cast I believe..... I might attend , see how tomorrow goes.

Hoop
17-07-2017, 02:38 PM
Yes, $2 mark is very key test point imo. If and when it gets there, I guess a lot of holders who got in around that price originally might want to derisk and there'll be bit of selling pressure around that level. Once we're pas that period, I expect the sp to settle around mid to high $2...

Current depth on ASX looks very interesting, if that was to be true and not staged by anyone a definite breakout looks to be imminent...we shall wait and see.

Big seller @ $1.90 has been swiped off just like that...
Your first post re: $NZ2.00 mark is seen as a strong chart resistance, but (at this moment) and at the time you posted, the depth showed/(s) the $NZ2 resistance did/(does) not exist..A reason theory disagrees with reality is the speed of the rally has caught Mr Market unaware ...If this speed continues it will breeze through the $2 mark before the market has time to strengthen that resistance (sellers willing to stay on the sidelines and let the new born bull have it's first run)....However that resistance could materlise very quickly..The chart pattern breakout also had a target price of $2 so the profit takers will be watching closely for any momentum hesitation...

Edit: slight resistance starting to form at 1.99 (2.42pm)

sb9
17-07-2017, 02:38 PM
theres a web cast I believe..... I might attend , see how tomorrow goes.

Thanks, but didn't see any details around the web cast from ASM from notice of meeting as per below..

https://nzx.com/companies/PPH/announcements/303484

Hoop
17-07-2017, 02:46 PM
Thanks, but didn't see any details around the web cast from ASM from notice of meeting as per below..

https://nzx.com/companies/PPH/announcements/303484

See here (https://pushpay.com/investors)..... Sb9

sb9
17-07-2017, 02:47 PM
Your first post re: $NZ2.00 mark is seen as a strong chart resistance, but (at this moment) and at the time you posted, the depth showed/(s) the $NZ2 resistance did/(does) not exist..A reason theory disagrees with reality is the speed of the rally has caught Mr Market unaware ...If this speed continues it will breeze through the $2 mark before the market has time to strengthen that resistance (sellers willing to stay on the sidelines and let the new born bull have it's first run)....However that resistance could materlise very quickly..The chart pattern breakout also had a target price of $2 so the profit takers will be watching closely for any momentum hesitation...

Edit: slight resistance starting to form at 1.99 (2.42pm)

Thanks Hoop for your thoughts.

It tried few times before to breach the $2 mark especially in Jan of this year (I think) where it broke that mark and failed stay above. Hence the $2 mark so critical to breach...

sb9
17-07-2017, 02:48 PM
See here (https://pushpay.com/investors)..... Sb9

Ahhh,..sweet, thanks for that Hoop and also Peat. Will watch live streaming tomorrow...

winner69
17-07-2017, 03:30 PM
Yippee - winner no long a loser

No worries

Beagle
17-07-2017, 03:44 PM
Told you that personal trainer was on the money didn't I :D

Baddarcy
18-07-2017, 10:31 AM
I thought we would get the AGM presentations prior to the market opening this morning. Guess not !

sb9
18-07-2017, 10:47 AM
I thought we would get the AGM presentations prior to the market opening this morning. Guess not !
I would say the slides will be released around 1.30pm or so this arvo as per notes below...
Presentation materials
Copies of presentation materials from the Meeting will be released to the NZX and ASX, and available on Pushpay’s investor website, www.pushpay.com/investors just prior to the Meeting commencing.

winner69
18-07-2017, 11:14 AM
Might tune in .....have my bingo card ready

Baddarcy
19-07-2017, 09:28 AM
interesting looks like 629,801 shares went through off market for a VWAP of $1.995 last night. Someone thinks we are still going up.

silverblizzard888
19-07-2017, 11:39 AM
Usual pace of the share price increases on most companies tend to die down once quarterlies and Agm is over and also after discounted capital raising, but seeing the price has continued its upward trajectory we are seeing strong market confidence, very much reminiscence of Xero. Institutions are now going to be looking at Pushpay's direction given its a opportunity for higher returns and given they will likely be included in future indexes they will take the opportunity to load up. All this buying will give a re-rate of the stock, in all value metrics for SaaS valuations Pushpay are clearly undervalued.

Baddarcy
19-07-2017, 11:48 AM
Usual pace of the share price increases on most companies tend to die down once quarterlies and Agm is over and also after discounted capital raising, but seeing the price has continued its upward trajectory we are seeing strong market confidence, very much reminiscence of Xero. Institutions are now going to be looking at Pushpay's direction given its a opportunity for higher returns and given they will likely be included in future indexes they will take the opportunity to load up. All this buying will give a re-rate of the stock, in all value metrics for SaaS valuations Pushpay are clearly undervalued.

Yes i anticipated a slow down today, but the momentum has continued, so i think i agree with your assessment. Currently testing $2 at time of writing.

iceman
19-07-2017, 11:57 AM
Bang through the $2 mark. Rewards for the faithful :-)

sb9
19-07-2017, 11:58 AM
Yes i anticipated a slow down today, but the momentum has continued, so i think i agree with your assessment. Currently testing $2 at time of writing.

Yeah sliced through the $2 mark very easily....so just in a week's time the price moved from about 1.65 to over 2. Must confess I didn't expect such a swift price move upwards, goes to show what big with deep pockets can do with a stock.

winner69
19-07-2017, 12:09 PM
Bang through the $2 mark. Rewards for the faithful :-)

Yippee - how high will this baby go

Time for a bit of euphoria

Beagle
19-07-2017, 12:18 PM
Yippee - how high will this baby go

Time for a bit of euphoria

The personal trainers down at the gym seemed pretty "pumped" a few minutes ago :)

silverblizzard888
19-07-2017, 12:29 PM
The personal trainers down at the gym seemed pretty "pumped" a few minutes ago :)

They must have been doing push-UPs!

winner69
19-07-2017, 12:44 PM
How high this baby go?

Come next March ACMR will be US$100m so TNY revenues will about this amount

Apply a (modest?) multiple of 8 and You get NZ$4 (next March). Bulyak will agree with this 8 multiple.

Wow

So personal trainer about right with his $3.60 this year

Can't be true

sb9
19-07-2017, 01:16 PM
How high this baby go?

Come next March ACMR will be US$100m so TNY revenues will about this amount

Apply a (modest?) multiple of 8 and You get NZ$4 (next March). Bulyak will agree with this 8 multiple.

Wow

So personal trainer about right with his $3.60 this year

Can't be true

Nice eh winner, not grumpy any more...and no red arrow in my portfolio anymore (at least for now).

winner69
19-07-2017, 01:19 PM
Nice eh winner, not grumpy any more...and no red arrow in my portfolio anymore (at least for now).

Last time I was this excited / euphoric was when I thought Trilogy was going to 6 bucks.

sb9
19-07-2017, 01:24 PM
Last time I was this excited / euphoric was when I thought Trilogy was going to 6 bucks.

Very true.

In a way, I agree with that gentleman at ASM y'day who asked the very first question re recent share placement and how unhappy he (and other retail holders) was for not to be part of the offer. If even if we're allocated small pool thro' SPP we would've very happy and rewarded for holding through period of recent uncertainty.

BlackPeter
19-07-2017, 01:42 PM
Last time I was this excited / euphoric was when I thought Trilogy was going to 6 bucks.

classic :laugh:

King1212
19-07-2017, 01:43 PM
Nice eh winner, not grumpy any more...and no red arrow in my portfolio anymore (at least for now).

wont be for long....time to take profit otherwise will be back to around $1.80 ish....

my 2cents opinion...

sb9
19-07-2017, 02:04 PM
wont be for long....time to take profit otherwise will be back to around $1.80 ish....

my 2cents opinion...

True, RSI bit overbought now...there'll be some consolidation/slowdown around this level. Watching with interest :)

peat
19-07-2017, 03:18 PM
pretty classic Elliot wave going on here with 5 wave impulsive and three wave corrective on this chart

8998

That would imply we are in wave 3 of 3 now which is the strongest of all, and should take us into serious new all time highs

I'm not sure that even i believe the above, but that's what I see from a chartist perspective.

forest
19-07-2017, 03:50 PM
Very true.

In a way, I agree with that gentleman at ASM y'day who asked the very first question re recent share placement and how unhappy he (and other retail holders) was for not to be part of the offer. If even if we're allocated small pool thro' SPP we would've very happy and rewarded for holding through period of recent uncertainty.

Those share placements seem very profitable for a couple of directors of PPH.
At least 2 directors got an allocation.
Graham Shaw a director managed to get over 1.3 mil share allocated for $2mil at the price of $1.51
Graham made over 30% on his purchase in just a few days.
The directors decided to do the capital raising as a share placement.
This shuts out many share holders of the opportunity to take part in buying shares at a discount.
If the same directors then take part in buying those discounted shares would that be a conflict of interest?
As a director of PPH the capital should be raised at the highest possible price for the additional shares however on a personal bases a lower more discounted price for the new shares would be an advantage.

winner69
19-07-2017, 04:29 PM
Those share placements seem very profitable for a couple of directors of PPH.
At least 2 directors got a allocation.
Graham Shaw a director managed to get over 1.3 mil share allocated for $2mil at the price of $1.51
Graham made over 30% on his purchase in just a few days.
The directors decided to do the capital raising as a share placement.
This shuts out many share holders of the opportunity to take part in buying shares at a discount.
If the same directors then take part in buying those discounted shares would that be a conflict of interest?
As a director of PPH the capital should be raised at the highest possible price for the additional shares however on a personal bases a lower more discounted price for the new shares would be an advantage.

Difference between investors and punters I reckon

Punters don't geta look in.

Hoop
19-07-2017, 07:08 PM
Difference between companies that place shares at discount and those that have a golden pig trough

Baa_Baa
19-07-2017, 07:40 PM
pretty classic Elliot wave going on here with 5 wave impulsive and three wave corrective on this chart

8998

That would imply we are in wave 3 of 3 now which is the strongest of all, and should take us into serious new all time highs

I'm not sure that even i believe the above, but that's what I see from a chartist perspective.

Hard to see the Elliott waves that you see if you don't mark up the chart, it's a complex discipline with cyclical depth (probably not suited to PPH) and one that I follow but don't post about normally as it is like TA on steroids which won't resonate with many here given the only very recent recognition of even basic TA that assists trading decisions. In any event I think PPH probably has insufficient volume to reliably put it under the Elliott Wave microscope. Interested to hear your thoughts nevertheless.

BAA

sb9
20-07-2017, 07:57 AM
Those share placements seem very profitable for a couple of directors of PPH.
At least 2 directors got an allocation.
Graham Shaw a director managed to get over 1.3 mil share allocated for $2mil at the price of $1.51
Graham made over 30% on his purchase in just a few days.
The directors decided to do the capital raising as a share placement.
This shuts out many share holders of the opportunity to take part in buying shares at a discount.
If the same directors then take part in buying those discounted shares would that be a conflict of interest?
As a director of PPH the capital should be raised at the highest possible price for the additional shares however on a personal bases a lower more discounted price for the new shares would be an advantage.

Agree 100%, I'm one of those disgruntled holders who is annoyed for not looking after small holders interests. :scared:

winner69
20-07-2017, 09:05 AM
Agree 100%, I'm one of those disgruntled holders who is annoyed for not looking after small holders interests. :scared:

sb9 - you should know by now punters like us don't matter to outfits like Push. We are actually a bit of a nuisance but serve our purpose in enriching a few.

sb9
20-07-2017, 09:10 AM
sb9 - you should know by now punters like us don't matter to outfits like Push. We are actually a bit of a nuisance but serve our purpose in enriching a few.

Yes winner, I hear you load and clear...better managed companies like ATM did give punters a chance be part of SPP albeit actual allocation being minimal and also recent HBL capital raise.

All I'm saying there should've been a small pool of say $5mln or so allocated to retail holders...

Hoop
20-07-2017, 09:53 AM
Yes winner, I hear you load and clear...better managed companies like ATM did give punters a chance be part of SPP albeit actual allocation being minimal and also recent HBL capital raise.

All I'm saying there should've been a small pool of say $5mln or so allocated to retail holders...

Too much mucking around and would be expensive for this "small" placement..e.g creating prospectus, mailing out..etc and there could be regulatory issues...(USA may not be able to participate? for one)

winner69
20-07-2017, 02:07 PM
Does PIe Fund (the successful highly respected boutique fund manager) still have shares

They took up some in a previous private placement

stoploss
20-07-2017, 02:10 PM
Does PIe Fund (the successful highly respected boutique fund manager) still have shares

They took up some in a previous private placement

$ 600 Mio under management now Winner is that still "Boutique" ?

Beagle
20-07-2017, 02:15 PM
Those share placements seem very profitable for a couple of directors of PPH.
At least 2 directors got an allocation.
Graham Shaw a director managed to get over 1.3 mil share allocated for $2mil at the price of $1.51
Graham made over 30% on his purchase in just a few days.
The directors decided to do the capital raising as a share placement.
This shuts out many share holders of the opportunity to take part in buying shares at a discount.
If the same directors then take part in buying those discounted shares would that be a conflict of interest?
As a director of PPH the capital should be raised at the highest possible price for the additional shares however on a personal bases a lower more discounted price for the new shares would be an advantage.

I agree 100%. I've decided the hype has faded for now and I am disappointed they have pushed out their break even date by a full year so have booked profits and I am out for now.

winner69
20-07-2017, 02:23 PM
$ 600 Mio under management now Winner is that still "Boutique" ?

That's what Push described them when they fronted up with some cash.

silverblizzard888
20-07-2017, 05:23 PM
I agree 100%. I've decided the hype has faded for now and I am disappointed they have pushed out their break even date by a full year so have booked profits and I am out for now.

Things do change, but you have to ask yourself has the fundamentals and does it matter if break-even is a different date if it means more growth?

peat
20-07-2017, 08:04 PM
Hard to see the Elliott waves that you see if you don't mark up the chart

BAA
9005
very rough sorry, but hopefully will assist in seeing with my eyes.
As I said, I dont really expect this to happen but theoretically over the next two years it should go to $4.86.

sb9
21-07-2017, 08:15 AM
Things do change, but you have to ask yourself has the fundamentals and does it matter if break-even is a different date if it means more growth?

Agree, that's the dilemma with tech (saas) stocks, very difficult to put a valuation around them.

winner69
21-07-2017, 08:21 AM
9005
very rough sorry, but hopefully will assist in seeing with my eyes.
As I said, I dont really expect this to happen but theoretically over the next two years it should go to $4.86.

Interesting stuff

iceman
21-07-2017, 08:35 AM
I agree 100%. I've decided the hype has faded for now and I am disappointed they have pushed out their break even date by a full year so have booked profits and I am out for now.

I agree Forest and Beagle. The results disappointed me with the change in focus, extension of break even date and capital raising that does not include us shareholders (see Forest's new thread on here). But I do understand where they are going, with raising more capital in the hope of quicker growth. So far, I will give them the benefit of the doubt and continue holding.

sb9
21-07-2017, 11:38 AM
Punters are bit shy and slow to start days trading...must looking at ASX open to look for clues.

winner69
21-07-2017, 11:46 AM
Punters are bit shy and slow to start days trading...must looking at ASX open to look for clues.

What generally are the relative volumes on ASX and NZX

What market generally leads the price?

percy
21-07-2017, 12:28 PM
When are the placement shares tradable?

winner69
21-07-2017, 03:21 PM
Has any body tried to model future cash flows under different scenarios to see what Push might actually be worth ....or do we just do the cheats way and guess a multiple that appears reasonable

winner69
21-07-2017, 03:28 PM
When are the placement shares tradable?

They been issued and no notes of any excrow arrangements / restrictions so presume they can be sold now.

About 138 million shares came out of escrow recently

peat
21-07-2017, 03:31 PM
When are the placement shares tradable?

Allotment and trading of placement shares on the NZX and ASX: 19 July 2017

percy
21-07-2017, 03:38 PM
Allotment and trading of placement shares on the NZX and ASX: 19 July 2017

Thank you peat and W69.

Beagle
21-07-2017, 04:16 PM
Things do change, but you have to ask yourself has the fundamentals and does it matter if break-even is a different date if it means more growth?

I guess I am old fashioned and when a company promises they are going to do something I expect them to stick with the plan, (plenty of other companies have no problem growing after getting to break even), so yes it matters to me that they have pushed out their expected break even by a year. Of course they would talk their own book about a new plan promoting more growth, they have too as otherwise nobody would give them more capital but the fact of the matter is the new customer attraction rate is slowing but their staff headcount shows no signs of doing so. Maybe once the hype dies down a bit again and we get a correction I'll see if I have any faith left in a company that's broken its promise...but in the meantime you can put me back in the "Doubting Thomas" camp with this one.

Tell you what though, if it keeps going up I undertake not to bore the back teeth out of investors with repeated shrill cries of "it's overpriced, its overpriced" like a really irritating shrieking parrot like some investors do on the AIR thread. If it keeps going up and investors make lots of money, good on them, risk and reward and all that sort of thing...

Hoop
21-07-2017, 04:28 PM
Those share placements seem very profitable for a couple of directors of PPH.
At least 2 directors got an allocation.
Graham Shaw a director managed to get over 1.3 mil share allocated for $2mil at the price of $1.51
Graham made over 30% on his purchase in just a few days.
The directors decided to do the capital raising as a share placement.
This shuts out many share holders of the opportunity to take part in buying shares at a discount.
If the same directors then take part in buying those discounted shares would that be a conflict of interest?
As a director of PPH the capital should be raised at the highest possible price for the additional shares however on a personal bases a lower more discounted price for the new shares would be an advantage.

I'll have another go at posting this....
Correction to some misinformation ...I received a message from...:D

Quote: -

9010 Don't know if you want to correct it or not, but the 2M shares taken up by Graham Shaw were taken off Elliott Crowther at the cap raise price of $1.51. No new shares were issued to him.

forest
21-07-2017, 05:14 PM
Thanks Hoop, I stand corrected. I should read those notices with a bit more attention to detail.

I do believe that the Chair, Bruce Gordon had an allocation of 149 thousand shares in the share placement.
So my concern for a potential conflict of interest in this share placement is still the same.

King1212
21-07-2017, 05:38 PM
Told u guys to book in profit when it was $2 ish..it will now standing on $1.8 to $1.90 ish level till next announcement...

JeremyALD
21-07-2017, 06:19 PM
Told u guys to book in profit when it was $2 ish..it will now standing on $1.8 to $1.90 ish level till next announcement...

And you know this how? I'm sorry but some of the comments on this site are getting ridiculous with pure spectulation around the SP of stocks

King1212
21-07-2017, 06:26 PM
And you know this how? I'm sorry but some of the comments on this site are getting ridiculous with pure spectulation around the SP of stocks

Mate...was a holder 3 years ago...bought in when it was $8 ish..

a lot of gurus laughed at me as pay was pure spec stock...then it went by 4. Saw my holding went 50% profit then dropped almost 50% n went back again to $2.40 ish...decided to book in profit before oz ipo.....

been lookin ths stock drops ever since...a lot of holders are in around oz ipo...

again my 2 cents opinion...

King1212
21-07-2017, 06:47 PM
This is what I learned from the gurus here.

stocks that in growth mode, make revenue and profit and pay dividend...u buy and hold n keep eyes on it...

stocks that in growth mode, making revenue but not profit n no dividend, u speculate..buy low n sell high to book in profit.....

i have no doubt PAY will shine in the future...but can others park thier money in PAY possible years till the make money

please let me know other thoughts?

iceman
22-07-2017, 07:58 PM
King1212 your approach is fine if that is how your investment strategy is. I take a much longer view when I invest in "startups" such as PPH and watch the companies progress carefully, not solely the daily SP movements. I have been very happy with PPH and the great progress they are making so have seen no need to sell. The recent announcement is the first that slightly disappoints me with pushing out the breakeven (cash) date. After consideration, I decided that management has been pretty well on the ball so far and I will give them the benefit of the doubt with their belief that getting more cash to drive further growth is the right way to go and will continue holding.

This longterm investment horizon is an approach that has done me well with new-ish companies like ATM, DIL and HBL over the years, all of which were very rocky over long periods and many posters on here did not have much faith in them at times, particularly ATM and DIL. So we clearly have a different approach to investing. Neither is right and neither is wrong. They are how we choose to invest. Only time will tell how successful PPH will be and it is far too early to be posting "told you so" comments based on trading over a few days.

How were you a SH 3 years ago and when did you buy in at $8 ? Pushpay listed on the NZAX on 17 August 2014 and migrated to the NZX in June 2015 and has never to my knowledge traded at anywhere near that price. Looks like you may have paid a little too much if you bought in "when it was $8 ish"

King1212
22-07-2017, 08:55 PM
King1212 your approach is fine if that is how your investment strategy is. I take a much longer view when I invest in "startups" such as PPH and watch the companies progress carefully, not solely the daily SP movements. I have been very happy with PPH and the great progress they are making so have seen no need to sell. The recent announcement is the first that slightly disappoints me with pushing out the breakeven (cash) date. After consideration, I decided that management has been pretty well on the ball so far and I will give them the benefit of the doubt with their belief that getting more cash to drive further growth is the right way to go and will continue holding.

This longterm investment horizon is an approach that has done me well with new-ish companies like ATM, DIL and HBL over the years, all of which were very rocky over long periods and many posters on here did not have much faith in them at times, particularly ATM and DIL. So we clearly have a different approach to investing. Neither is right and neither is wrong. They are how we choose to invest. Only time will tell how successful PPH will be and it is far too early to be posting "told you so" comments based on trading over a few days.

How were you a SH 3 years ago and when did you buy in at $8 ? Pushpay listed on the NZAX on 17 August 2014 and migrated to the NZX in June 2015 and has never to my knowledge traded at anywhere near that price. Looks like you may have paid a little too much if you bought in "when it was $8 ish"



Puspay share cut by 4....do the research....

yes long term....look at OHE...cut loss when it was $3.. boy..lucky me...story is all growth....

will get in PAY..if sp shows weakness or fear kick in...

janner
22-07-2017, 09:00 PM
"when it was $8 ish"

Oct. 14 2015 Open $7.30 High of $8.40 Close $7.30

Disc. Never a holder. always a watcher.

iceman
22-07-2017, 09:35 PM
Puspay share cut by 4....do the research....

yes long term....look at OHE...cut loss when it was $3.. boy..lucky me...story is all growth....

will get in PAY..if sp shows weakness or fear kick in...

True I forgot the consolidation. Shouldn't have as a was invested myself before then. But still can't see how that was 3 years ago. The point I am making is about different approaches, some think short and some think long.

King1212
22-07-2017, 09:41 PM
True I forgot the consolidation. Shouldn't have as a was invested myself before then. But still can't see how that was 3 years ago. The point I am making is about different approaches, some think short and some think long.


My bad...2015,2016,2017....so concluded 3 years...did not take month in consideration..my apology...

yes..certainly..short and long...but one thing I learnt...about spec stock..is you need to book in profit....

if if you don't book in profit, you will see the gain despair :eek2:

iceman
22-07-2017, 09:44 PM
My bad...2015,2016,2017....so concluded 3 years...did not take month in consideration..my apology...

You miss the point about told you so comments and different approaches to investing. Each to their own.

King1212
22-07-2017, 09:52 PM
You miss the point about told you so comments and different approaches to investing. Each to their own.


Those are my 2cents opinion....take it as a grain of salt....I gave my approach on spec stock as my experience and learnt from all the gurus here...do whatever u think the best....

janner
23-07-2017, 09:04 AM
Those are my 2cents opinion....take it as a grain of salt....I gave my approach on spec stock as my experience and learnt from all the gurus here...do whatever u think the best....

Every one's 2 cents worth is appreciated ... :-)))

Live and learn ..

King1212
23-07-2017, 03:39 PM
Every one's 2 cents worth is appreciated ... :-)))

Live and learn ..

Thanks Janner!

kizame
23-07-2017, 04:09 PM
Thanks Janner!

There have been some good moves to profit from since the Aus listing,I bought in around 2.60 odd and was aghast when the listing happened and it tanked,so When it bottomed and the volume came in I bought a whole lot more.
It went to 1.95,I sold the lot at 1.86 making a small profit overall. But I do believe in the story with this stock,and it is now one I'm happy to hold,always watching though,as sometimes the market as in the recent past,loses interest.

tim23
23-07-2017, 04:47 PM
There have been some good moves to profit from since the Aus listing,I bought in around 2.60 odd and was aghast when the listing happened and it tanked,so When it bottomed and the volume came in I bought a whole lot more.
It went to 1.95,I sold the lot at 1.86 making a small profit overall. But I do believe in the story with this stock,and it is now one I'm happy to hold,always watching though,as sometimes the market as in the recent past,loses interest.

Hi - am confused you sold the lot but happy to hold? So do you still own or not?

sb9
24-07-2017, 11:46 AM
Yet again, the $2 mark seem to be bit hard push through...might've failed again to stay above that mark (for now at least).

sb9
27-07-2017, 01:39 PM
Knock, knock...$2 here it is on offer, any takers??

kizame
27-07-2017, 06:08 PM
Hi - am confused you sold the lot but happy to hold? So do you still own or not?

Hi yep sold the lot to clear out the closet after buying at about 2.60 odd,bought a lot more at 1.35 and as they rebounded sold at 1.86 making a small profit overall,waited until I thought I could see where price was going and bought back in
a bit cheaper,and a much larger holding.So we shall see what happens.

Baddarcy
28-07-2017, 10:04 AM
Knock, knock...$2 here it is on offer, any takers??

There sure is, sellers at $2 all gone, but can we hold on this time?

sb9
28-07-2017, 12:20 PM
There sure is, sellers at $2 all gone, but can we hold on this time?

Looks like a break-out, solid support around $2 mark so far...

winner69
28-07-2017, 12:28 PM
Looks like a break-out, solid support around $2 mark so far...

Break outs I love

What they say sb - round numbers like 200 are good .....and when resistance is broken that mark becomes solid support

Push never with a 1 in front of it ever again

sb9
28-07-2017, 01:04 PM
Break outs I love

What they say sb - round numbers like 200 are good .....and when resistance is broken that mark becomes solid support

Push never with a 1 in front of it ever again

Hope so winner...looking rather strong now, happy for the big boys to fight it out for now.

winner69
28-07-2017, 01:11 PM
Bringing my DCF up to date

How does a US$1.1 billion revenue number for 2025 stack up (revenue, not ACMR) in your experts eyes who know Push well? Feasible?

Projected on a growth decay rate of 80% pa. some say that for SAaS companies this should be 85% which would give give $1.7 billion in 2025

Will put some margin and expense numbers against this to see what I get as a rough valuation

ShouldHaveHeld
31-07-2017, 01:46 PM
9043:t_up:

winner69
31-07-2017, 01:53 PM
9043:t_up:

.....250 here we come

sb9
31-07-2017, 02:14 PM
.....250 here we come

Does look like on course for good move upwards....

winner69
01-08-2017, 03:03 PM
Bringing my DCF up to date

How does a US$1.1 billion revenue number for 2025 stack up (revenue, not ACMR) in your experts eyes who know Push well? Feasible?

Projected on a growth decay rate of 80% pa. some say that for SaaS companies this should be 85% which would give give $1.7 billion in 2025

Will put some margin and expense numbers against this to see what I get as a rough valuation

No response

That $1.1 billion revenue a load of old codswallop than? or don't any of you have any feel for revenues behind the touted $70m for F2018

kiora
01-08-2017, 04:34 PM
No response

That $1.1 billion revenue a load of old codswallop than? or don't any of you have any feel for revenues behind the touted $70m for F2018

Don't know W69 ,just know well in the money. LTH after selling 1/2 @ $2.35 few months back :)

Pricey
02-08-2017, 06:19 PM
A sign of the times, at least.

https://www.churchofengland.org/media-centre/news/2017/06/church-of-england-announces-contactless-payment-trial-to-be-launched-this-summer.aspx

bulyak
02-08-2017, 10:02 PM
Good find. Very interesting. Any idea what system the COE is going to use?

Pricey
03-08-2017, 06:54 PM
Based on this article it would appear they are simply going to set up terminals, although that doesn't seem too efficient: https://www.ft.com/content/2e803942-5817-11e7-9fed-c19e2700005f?FTCamp=engage/CAPI/webapp/Channel_Moreover//B2B

Definitely a crowded space with identical/similar offerings. I don't mind the cap raising by PPH so they can push into new churches. I can imagine it would be quite hard to convince a church to change when they are already set up with a competitor.

Hoop
03-08-2017, 07:33 PM
Based on this article it would appear they are simply going to set up terminals, although that doesn't seem too efficient: https://www.ft.com/content/2e803942-5817-11e7-9fed-c19e2700005f?FTCamp=engage/CAPI/webapp/Channel_Moreover//B2B

Definitely a crowded space with identical/similar offerings. I don't mind the cap raising by PPH so they can push into new churches. I can imagine it would be quite hard to convince a church to change when they are already set up with a competitor.

"....Definitely a crowded space with identical/similar offerings....".

No it's not on both accounts....

There is very little competition in PPH's market....and the digital payments are vastly different..

COE from what I'm reading are using terminals to swipe bank cards so you have to be present at the church to make a donation...PPH uses an app for smart phones and is online direct crediting and donations to the church is not limited by location. The app has multi-functions (see image below).PPH's entire system installed within an organisation can be a very powerful Push/Pull marketing tool....COE's system is a single function unit limited to using terminals, and yes COE's system is in a crowded competitive space....PPH online direct transactions has great potential as this space is not overcrowded with competitors yet and this transaction system is flexible and can be specifically altered to be used by any organisation..

I guess PPH apps can be used similar to online banking as any individual as well as businesses and organisations can set up repeative payments/sales/crediting using their credit cards/bank accounts/whatever via PPH app..

Where PPH differs from online banking programs is their multi-features.... example PPH is pushing into schools with this system see image from their website (https://pushpay.com/business-enterprise)
http://14959-presscdn-0-21.pagely.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/edu-infographic-.png

Zaphod
03-08-2017, 07:47 PM
Yes, COE's system certainly does appear to be rather backward, but it's still an advance over the incumbent method of donation I suppose.

The wider digital payments ecosystem (in app/in store/in website) could quite easily be dominated by Apple Pay and Android Pay, along with other newer entrants such as Samsung Pay. PPH do need to differentiate their offerings, and being a smaller more nimble company may give them the advantage they need.

Hoop
03-08-2017, 08:16 PM
Yes, COE's system certainly does appear to be rather backward, but it's still an advance over the incumbent method of donation I suppose.

The wider digital payments ecosystem (in app/in store/in website) could quite easily be dominated by Apple Pay and Android Pay, along with other newer entrants such as Samsung Pay. PPH do need to differentiate their offerings, and being a smaller more nimble company may give them the advantage they need.

Yes..my initial thoughts were the big guys dominating..such as e-wallets etc but these are single purpose programs.. PPH has a different product as their programs are multi-functional one stop marketing/communication tools that thats able to interconnect (network) ..I'm guessing interconnecting with any Bank is one function of many.
Disc: hold

SilverBack
03-08-2017, 09:11 PM
No response

That $1.1 billion revenue a load of old codswallop than? or don't any of you have any feel for revenues behind the touted $70m for F2018

Well, just in the USA in 2014, there are estimates of church giving at $50 Billion p.a. (https://www.fastcompany.com/3039328/church-giving-tops-50-billion-a-year-in-us-and-its-future-is-not-a-collection-plate) Add to that Canada, NZ, Australia, UK, rest of Europe, South America etc, etc and the amount is extremely large. So if PPH pick up 2% of USA giving alone, in a number of years, then they will process $1 Billion p.a.
Why stop at churches? Non-Christian religions can be brought into the fold too, if PPH employ people who can work in those arenas. I hate the idea, but PPH has to be an ideal app for televangelists with their routine appeals. Press a button in the studio at the right time and out goes a message with the give-me message and let the supporters respond. Perhaps the PPH directors have some genuine faith and are not willing to support this kind of behaviour.

MikeE
31-08-2017, 08:09 AM
This stock has really stagnated ☹️

dodgy
31-08-2017, 09:31 AM
This stock has really stagnated ☹️

Hi all,
We have been traveling through the USA for the past 3.5 months and spent considerable time in the lower very dedicated religious states. I would think this stocks prospects will only improve with large donation receipt increases due to Houston flooding. Time will tell! I have the faith.
Regards
-dodgy

sb9
31-08-2017, 10:01 AM
This stock has really stagnated ☹️

Yes, market needs some news to come through until then it'll move sideways at best, must check when the next update is...

sb9
31-08-2017, 10:22 AM
Yes, market needs some news to come through until then it'll move sideways at best, must check when the next update is...

Next update is on 11th Oct for update on quarter ending 30th Sep.

BlackPeter
31-08-2017, 11:12 AM
Hi all,
We have been travelling through the USA for the past 3.5 months and spent considerable time in the lower very dedicated religious states. I would think this stocks prospects will only improve with large donation receipt increases due to Huston flooding. Time will tell!
Regards
-dodgy

But than - wouldn't these people see the Houston flood as god-sent punishment for electing an absolute crook and liar as president?

Maybe the god botherers choose now to put their money into building arks instead of increasing their digital giving? Might be a safer option given that Trump and his ilk are fuelling global warming ...

Nigelk
01-09-2017, 11:36 AM
I think they'll hit the milestone of NZD$100M ACMR soon, which could see a spike in price. Plotted a chart from USD $62.6m achieved to 30/6 out to target USD $100m by 31/3/18. Line shows ACRM should be hitting USD$72 = NZD$100M anytime now. Hope they announce it when it happens as market would like them achieving this milestone faster than Xero.

Baddarcy
01-09-2017, 03:53 PM
But than - wouldn't these people see the Houston flood as god-sent punishment for electing an absolute crook and liar as president?

Maybe the god botherers choose now to put their money into building arks instead of increasing their digital giving? Might be a safer option given that Trump and his ilk are fuelling global warming ...

Yikes? Red wine post?

Baddarcy
01-09-2017, 03:54 PM
I think they'll hit the milestone of NZD$100M ACMR soon, which could see a spike in price. Plotted a chart from USD $62.6m achieved to 30/6 out to target USD $100m by 31/3/18. Line shows ACRM should be hitting USD$72 = NZD$100M anytime now. Hope they announce it when it happens as market would like them achieving this milestone faster than Xero.

Agreed, thou remember they changed their revenue reporting model, so not oranges and oranges but close,maybe oranges and mandarins.

Nigelk
01-09-2017, 08:23 PM
Agreed, but Xero and others use ACMR, so when Pushpay hit, and report that achievement, at both a faster rate and lower share price: revenue ratio than Xero,we should see price boost.

Kiwi
03-09-2017, 04:34 PM
Agreed, but Xero and others use ACMR, so when Pushpay hit, and report that achievement, at both a faster rate and lower share price: revenue ratio than Xero,we should see price boost.

I'm thinking this share is better than Diligent and could be another Xero.
What are other people's opinions?

kizame
03-09-2017, 05:52 PM
I'm thinking this share is better than Diligent and could be another Xero.
What are other people's opinions?

Certainly has much bigger potential than DIL and probably equal to xero,considering xero have to push out competitors and win over clients.

Baddarcy
04-09-2017, 01:18 PM
A bit more interest today. Back over $2 again

sb9
04-09-2017, 02:41 PM
A bit more interest today. Back over $2 again

Yes, looks like someone is keen...



1
38
2:14:48 pm
208
100,000
$208,000
Off Market

King1212
04-09-2017, 06:36 PM
Strong run over the ASX....another Xero for sure now...

sb9
05-09-2017, 09:55 AM
Strong run over the ASX....another Xero for sure now...

Yes, strong close on ASX at 1.91 with decent volume. That closing price equates to NZ $ 2.11 based current cross rate of .9013.

Baddarcy
05-09-2017, 10:03 AM
Feels a bit like someone is building a stake. The volume has been tiny the last month, but suddenly yesterday and today it has spiked nicely.

Long may it continue.

DISC : holding

sb9
05-09-2017, 10:21 AM
Feels a bit like someone is building a stake. The volume has been tiny the last month, but suddenly yesterday and today it has spiked nicely.

Long may it continue.

DISC : holding

Looks like some overseas interest is building up going by the cross trades this morning...



5
2
9:13:14 am
205.8
129,051
$265,587
International


6
1
9:04:18 am
208.4
94,698
$197,351
International

King1212
06-09-2017, 12:50 PM
got in small parcel last week...when I saw the liquidity at ASX increased....

a lot of buying at ASX lately....Typhoon Irma is coming too so...more people are donating money at the churches :D

King1212
08-09-2017, 10:10 PM
Harvey created havoc in Texas. Irma battered the triangle n approaching Florida. Then now....8.1 earthquake just hit Mexico....

What u guys think? Would be the year for PPH? Not that I m happy with all these natural disasters. But surely, churches will do more fund raising n donation....

Kay
09-09-2017, 02:12 AM
They're a $500m company for reasons other I'd imagine...

I think it would be in their best interests to be seen to not make a profit from natural disasters of this magnitude. And ensure their customers know that they aren't.

kizame
09-09-2017, 08:56 AM
They're a $500m company for reasons other I'd imagine...

I think it would be in their best interests to be seen to not make a profit from natural disasters of this magnitude. And ensure their customers know that they aren't.

I don't really think anybody cares whether they are profiting from disasters or not,it's a side issue really,they are providing an easy means of giving,that's what people care about.
If i was giving via my app to a church or charity for a disaster,am i considering the profit the app maker was making,no not really.
But then we are all different,but the average person isn't so analytical,and the churches don't care, they are the benefitting.

sb9
13-09-2017, 10:23 AM
Nice price moves over past week or so....reading on other forum from our friend Moosie, it apprears Ord Minnet have a target price of AU $ 2.38 and rate the stock as a buy. That's NZ 2.62 at current fx rate.

Baddarcy
13-09-2017, 12:06 PM
Nice price moves over past week or so....reading on other forum from our friend Moosie, it apprears Ord Minnet have a target price of AU $ 2.38 and rate the stock as a buy. That's NZ 2.62 at current fx rate.

The pattern seems over the last couple of weeks seemed to be weakness in the morning, presumably when only NZ buyers were in the market, then a lot of buying from offshore after 12pm which has pushed the price up. Could be interesting this afternoon if this continues.

ghostrider68
13-09-2017, 12:33 PM
Nice price moves over past week or so....reading on other forum from our friend Moosie, it apprears Ord Minnet have a target price of AU $ 2.38 and rate the stock as a buy. That's NZ 2.62 at current fx rate.

Where is this? I can't find it on hc. Where is that Moose residing?

King1212
15-09-2017, 11:35 AM
2 millions of shares at $2.30...wow...what happening here...:D

winner69
15-09-2017, 11:40 AM
2 millions of shares at $2.30...wow...what happening here...:D

...maybe the personal trainer was right - $3.50 here we come

sb9
15-09-2017, 11:52 AM
2 millions of shares at $2.30...wow...what happening here...:D

Wow, that's very bullish crossing by someone who's keen to pay bit more premium than current market price, they sure do believe and have lots of FAITH :)

kiora
15-09-2017, 11:53 AM
2 millions of shares at $2.30...wow...what happening here...:D
Yes what is happening?Was out now back in. MFI & RSI gone AWHOL.
Exciting space ATM.I notice Watercare payments can be made through PPH now.More in the pipeline?

King1212
15-09-2017, 08:24 PM
https://www.watercare.co.nz/common-content/billing-and-payment/ways-to-pay/Pages/Pushpay.aspx

Hectorplains
15-09-2017, 08:42 PM
https://www.watercare.co.nz/common-content/billing-and-payment/ways-to-pay/Pages/Pushpay.aspx

Old news, they've been providing payment services for Watercare (and AMP) for over a year.

sb9
19-09-2017, 12:21 PM
Another decent crossing at current price level..



1
7
11:44:38 am
230
311,688
$716,882
Off Market

sb9
19-09-2017, 03:33 PM
Here we go, big accumulation in progress..with one buyer bidding for 200k shares @2.31 on the trading depth.

I'm picking 2.50 soon, hey winner after all the gym guy's prediction might come right ;)

Sorry correction volume changed to 20k, the bidder must've put in an extra 0....

Baddarcy
19-09-2017, 03:43 PM
Here we go, big accumulation in progress..with one buyer bidding for 200k shares @2.31 on the trading depth.

I'm picking 2.50 soon, hey winner after all the gym guy's prediction might come right ;)

Sorry correction volume changed to 20k, the bidder must've put in an extra 0....

Yes maybe, the big boys are playing now. Best to keep out of their way

kiora
19-09-2017, 04:07 PM
Yes maybe, the big boys are playing now. Best to keep out of their way

Agrees,step back & watch the fun :)

Whitebeard
20-09-2017, 02:15 PM
Moving nicely on the ASX..

bulyak
21-09-2017, 12:34 PM
What is the market expectation for the figures for the 11 October investor briefing?

King1212
21-09-2017, 02:44 PM
sellers are drying up at ASX....high volume last couple days...the figures must be good this coming 11 October...

Hectorplains
21-09-2017, 06:10 PM
sellers are drying up at ASX....high volume last couple days...the figures must be good this coming 11 October...

Today the volume is at 229k, against average daily volume 148k. Monthly volume average is up on August but down on July. Not sure how this correlates to October result release... Is PPH really that leaky?

King1212
21-09-2017, 08:40 PM
Ppb is the next Xero.....many disasters happening. ..so donations would certainly pouring in America....

D. Fender
22-09-2017, 10:35 AM
Ppb is the next Xero.....many disasters happening. ..so donations would certainly pouring in America....

Unless, of course, people finally start to realise that if there is a god, he or she let all the disasters happen. :cool:

iceman
22-09-2017, 03:37 PM
Been a great run and interesting to see where this goes from here. Sold 3/4 of my holding today but will continue to watch this and very possibly buy more again at some stage. But felt it was time to profit take a little.
The October numbers will be very interesting to see.

Hectorplains
23-09-2017, 01:42 PM
https://www.glassdoor.com/Reviews/Pushpay-Reviews-E1021369_P2.htm

A few staff issues perhaps?

King1212
23-09-2017, 03:36 PM
One thing I learnt as manager...u will never ever satisfy all your staffs....

winner69
23-09-2017, 03:57 PM
https://www.glassdoor.com/Reviews/Pushpay-Reviews-E1021369_P2.htm

A few staff issues perhaps?

Great potential though

Hope they dismissed the disgruntled ones - sounded like they didn't like hard work

Shareholders require them to do their best plus - after all staff are just a commodity

BlackPeter
23-09-2017, 04:06 PM
One thing I learnt as manager...u will never ever satisfy all your staffs....

Absolutely - however a good manager or a good organisation will always find much more people who are a good fit than people who are a misfit and therefore unhappy, and this means that they would as well get many more positive reviews than negative reviews.

I worked with many qualified staff and hired more than hundred during my career (all with university degrees). I only had to get rid of 3 of these (and they might as well write bad reviews about my previous employer, who knows).

It is incredibly expensive to hire staff which is a bad fit and therefore not happy with your organisation. You first have to hire them (make that one to two management months for highly qualified staff). You have to train them (add at least the same amount) and then you have to get rid of them (after finding out that they are unsuitable), which is under our employment laws not easy either. A bad staff selection can easily throw you back by half a management year ... and you haven't done a lot of positive stuff during this time.

PPH clearly seems to have problems finding the right people - i.e. they demonstrate incompetence in hiring suitable staff. Typical start up mistake, and a mistake many organisations pay for with the failure of their business. Why would anybody want to hire staff not happy with the organisation? Why would anybody invest into a business which is not even capable to select the right people to do the job? I'd consider this as a very basic capability ...

Managers with good recruitment skills as well as with great leadership skills are crucial - PPH seems not to care.

I remember that I've seen similar reviews from Wynyard staff ... maybe they are just some years ahead ....

blobbles
24-09-2017, 09:18 AM
The comparison to Wynyard comments were equally as bad is false. Many of the Wynyard comments stated their products were flawed, that they didn't do what they said they did, as well as inept management. Pushpays product clearly does what it says it does. The negative glassdoor reviews appear to be mostly from sales people who appear to be disgruntled with sales managers. Perfectly valid reason to be disgruntled but less problematic than Wynyards which were coming from bewildered engineers.

BlackPeter
24-09-2017, 10:40 AM
The comparison to Wynyard comments were equally as bad is false. Many of the Wynyard comments stated their products were flawed, that they didn't do what they said they did, as well as inept management. Pushpays product clearly does what it says it does. The negative glassdoor reviews appear to be mostly from sales people who appear to be disgruntled with sales managers. Perfectly valid reason to be disgruntled but less problematic than Wynyards which were coming from bewildered engineers.

Did I explore the sensitivities of your endowment effect? Does it hurt? So sorry.

Look blobbles, a comparison can't be "false". It only may or may not be appropriate in the context in which it is used. And sure, while you are right that Wynyard had a higher percentage of engineers complaining (maybe they didn't had that many sales people?), the story is in both cases the same: Too fast grown startup with little competency in leadership and hiring (the right) people.

Difficult to recover from that, particularly if the company does not acknowledge their weaknesses ...

But anyway - enjoy your holding and the SP rise as long as it lasts ... it is a speculative stock after all ... just one more red flag, nothing to worry about ...

kizame
24-09-2017, 11:53 AM
Did I explore the sensitivities of your endowment effect? Does it hurt? So sorry.

Look blobbles, a comparison can't be "false". It only may or may not be appropriate in the context in which it is used. And sure, while you are right that Wynyard had a higher percentage of engineers complaining (maybe they didn't had that many sales people?), the story is in both cases the same: Too fast grown startup with little competency in leadership and hiring (the right) people.

Difficult to recover from that, particularly if the company does not acknowledge their weaknesses ...

But anyway - enjoy your holding and the SP rise as long as it lasts ... it is a speculative stock after all ... just one more red flag, nothing to worry about ...

I find it quite strange BP that you find the negative with this company,yet look at the recent chart, BUT 2 that you were pumping recently have had share price slumps,namely CBL and MPG.

For others out there,even if you aren't into TA,look at the charts,study the growth prospects,and look at the charts again.
As I've said before BP buy some shares in this company,you might end up with a few more positive things to say.

blobbles
24-09-2017, 12:01 PM
Did I explore the sensitivities of your endowment effect? Does it hurt? So sorry.

Look blobbles, a comparison can't be "false". It only may or may not be appropriate in the context in which it is used. And sure, while you are right that Wynyard had a higher percentage of engineers complaining (maybe they didn't had that many sales people?), the story is in both cases the same: Too fast grown startup with little competency in leadership and hiring (the right) people.

Difficult to recover from that, particularly if the company does not acknowledge their weaknesses ...

But anyway - enjoy your holding and the SP rise as long as it lasts ... it is a speculative stock after all ... just one more red flag, nothing to worry about ...

Only pointing out the weakness in the comparison. You equivocated a company who sold a product that did not do what it say it does to a company whose product is proven to be sound. The similarity was that both companies had disgruntled sales people. The prior is a massive red flag, the latter is an orange flag that shows management needs to step up in the sales division. There is a false comparison in the former as the companies in question are/were doing the direct opposite of each other.

There is one average review from an engineer who complains about culture in all the glassdoor reviews, a very good sign for me (not everyone fits in everywhere) as there are many glowing reviews. You will also note the Sales people, while pissed off, many talk about making a lot of money and having to work long hours to do so. Sorry... but isn't this how sales works?? So many sales people I have known pretty much work 80 hour weeks for 6 months then take the other half of the year off, or something similar.

The biggest mistake PushPay could make is not listening to these reviews, lets hope they step up.

Hectorplains
24-09-2017, 12:02 PM
I find it quite strange BP that you find the negative with this company,yet look at the recent chart, BUT 2 that you were pumping recently have had share price slumps,namely CBL and MPG.

For others out there,even if you aren't into TA,look at the charts,study the growth prospects,and look at the charts again.
As I've said before BP buy some shares in this company,you might end up with a few more positive things to say.

Yes, buying into the company is likely to improve your confirmation bias.

BlackPeter
24-09-2017, 12:20 PM
I find it quite strange BP that you find the negative with this company,yet look at the recent chart, BUT 2 that you were pumping recently have had share price slumps,namely CBL and MPG.

For others out there,even if you aren't into TA,look at the charts,study the growth prospects,and look at the charts again.
As I've said before BP buy some shares in this company,you might end up with a few more positive things to say.

Look Kizame - there is quite a herd of investors out there praising and up ramping stocks going up and thrashing companies going down. No need to join this chorus, they are already loud enough. Nothing wrong with TA either, but it is just observing where the stampede is currently going (and yes, this is an important information, too).

If you look into my posts - I normally try to find fundamental differentiators - sometimes the market sees them as well and the SP follows, and sometimes the market needs a bit longer. Obviously - sometimes I am as well wrong or fundamentals change. Did this never happen to you?

However - I am happy for you to comment in your posts the most recent share price movements (SP up, SP down) - maybe there are still investors around who can't see that for themselves? So maybe you should be happy with me looking a bit deeper and from time to time communicating my findings. if you don't like my posts - there is an easy way to avoid them.

I never said that I am able to predict where the herd is running in the next hour or days. Are you?

However - I do know that all herds need from time to time some food and water ... so maybe FA has its place as well ;);

blobbles
27-09-2017, 09:44 PM
Look Kizame - there is quite a herd of investors out there praising and up ramping stocks going up and thrashing companies going down. No need to join this chorus, they are already loud enough. Nothing wrong with TA either, but it is just observing where the stampede is currently going (and yes, this is an important information, too).

If you look into my posts - I normally try to find fundamental differentiators - sometimes the market sees them as well and the SP follows, and sometimes the market needs a bit longer. Obviously - sometimes I am as well wrong or fundamentals change. Did this never happen to you?

However - I am happy for you to comment in your posts the most recent share price movements (SP up, SP down) - maybe there are still investors around who can't see that for themselves? So maybe you should be happy with me looking a bit deeper and from time to time communicating my findings. if you don't like my posts - there is an easy way to avoid them.

I never said that I am able to predict where the herd is running in the next hour or days. Are you?

However - I do know that all herds need from time to time some food and water ... so maybe FA has its place as well ;);

Our predictions are put to the test through the yearly stock picking contest.

Baddarcy
05-10-2017, 11:49 AM
Pushed back through $2.50 today

sb9
05-10-2017, 11:57 AM
Pushed back through $2.50 today

Yes, looking rather solid with less than a week to go for Quarterly update on Wed 11th Oct.

Mr Market is pricing in a solid update....

sb9
05-10-2017, 12:06 PM
Wow, just noticed on trading depth big crossing of 2.5mln shares....

King1212
06-10-2017, 10:07 AM
What is going on! Would we see $3 before wed 11oct?:D

Baddarcy
06-10-2017, 10:09 AM
Yes, looking rather solid with less than a week to go for Quarterly update on Wed 11th Oct.

Mr Market is pricing in a solid update....

Do you think the market is also looking to the future and pricing future revenue as well, a bit like it does for Xero?

MikeE
09-10-2017, 08:15 AM
Definitely a bit of that. Although I think announcement day is going to be something special. Given the natural disasters of late - one would think that a co. such as pushpay would be at an all time high? Granted - there growth and revenue is dependent on market penetration and uptake of the apps use, however surely external factors such as these aid in this process? I've watched pushpay for a while and sometimes SP falls sharply even on a great announcement which would infer the market has priced in future revenue etc? But SP was around the current levels maybe a year ago and we've had some significant growth since then? Hopefully we see it over $3 and staying over $3. Up and up awwwaayyyy. What do people think?

winner69
09-10-2017, 08:32 AM
Definitely a bit of that. Although I think announcement day is going to be something special. Given the natural disasters of late - one would think that a co. such as pushpay would be at an all time high? Granted - there growth and revenue is dependent on market penetration and uptake of the apps use, however surely external factors such as these aid in this process? I've watched pushpay for a while and sometimes SP falls sharply even on a great announcement which would infer the market has priced in future revenue etc? But SP was around the current levels maybe a year ago and we've had some significant growth since then? Hopefully we see it over $3 and staying over $3. Up and up awwwaayyyy. What do people think?

Agree with all that

Remember thatpersonal trainer who said 360 by Christmas - thise guys know

Main thing to look for is a further increase in revenue per customer ....boosts revenue griowth heaps

forest
09-10-2017, 08:37 AM
Definitely a bit of that. Although I think announcement day is going to be something special. Given the natural disasters of late - one would think that a co. such as pushpay would be at an all time high? Granted - there growth and revenue is dependent on market penetration and uptake of the apps use, however surely external factors such as these aid in this process? I've watched pushpay for a while and sometimes SP falls sharply even on a great announcement which would infer the market has priced in future revenue etc? But SP was around the current levels maybe a year ago and we've had some significant growth since then? Hopefully we see it over $3 and staying over $3. Up and up awwwaayyyy. What do people think?

A lot of growth is expected of this company. And growth is already slowing.
Revenue growth from 2016 to 2017 was over 200%, from 2017 to 2018 revenue growth forecast is less than 50%.

King1212
09-10-2017, 09:22 AM
A lot of growth is expected of this company. And growth is already slowing.
Revenue growth from 2016 to 2017 was over 200%, from 2017 to 2018 revenue growth forecast is less than 50%.

currently, they are only concentrating on faith sector like churches...once churches done..they will go with non profit organisations, schools not to mention bill payment....

so plenty to grow....amen!

winner69
09-10-2017, 09:35 AM
A lot of growth is expected of this company. And growth is already slowing.
Revenue growth from 2016 to 2017 was over 200%, from 2017 to 2018 revenue growth forecast is less than 50%.

F17 revenues $34m F18 guidance more than $70m

That's heaps more growth than 'less than 50%'

forest
09-10-2017, 10:16 AM
F17 revenues $34m F18 guidance more than $70m

That's heaps more growth than 'less than 50%'

Oops, you are right Winner. I had revenue for 2017 in NZ$ and revenue for 2018 in US$
So slowdown in growth not so severe, reducing from over 200% 2016-2017 to close to 100% 2017-2018.

nomis
09-10-2017, 12:27 PM
Need to decrease some more of my holdings to put more into PPH, I really like the future for this company! Should see $3.00 fairly soon

sb9
09-10-2017, 03:01 PM
Do you think the market is also looking to the future and pricing future revenue as well, a bit like it does for Xero?

Yes, for sure. Lot of growth is factored into at current price levels. Will be interesting to watch what the numbers would look like on Wed 11th.

I'm sure Ord Minnet would've done their homework thoroughly when they had the target price of A$2.69 (I think) recently in their research report which is about NZ$2.95 at current cross rate (thanks for weakening NZD due to political uncertainty).

If quarterly update is anything what market is expecting then boom it could surge past $3 mark without much effort.

sb9
10-10-2017, 11:15 AM
Decent early volume of more than 500k with couple of big parcels being crossed at 2.73 a piece.

winner69
10-10-2017, 11:41 AM
Decent early volume of more than 500k with couple of big parcels being crossed at 2.73 a piece.

Not me selling .....wonder who is?

MikeE
11-10-2017, 07:54 AM
Big day today guys 🤤

gbogo
11-10-2017, 08:01 AM
Numbers released pre-open? Or just before 11am call?

Hectorplains
11-10-2017, 08:27 AM
Numbers released pre-open? Or just before 11am call?

Usually 9.30 - 10.00

winner69
11-10-2017, 08:37 AM
They will be very good numbers

Even if not that good still good in the eyes of the beholders

Share price 300 this week

No worries

Baddarcy
11-10-2017, 09:32 AM
I think 'woohoo' might be appropriate? Thou i have just read the first line so far.

King1212
11-10-2017, 09:34 AM
Bloody excellent....target $100 ACRM moves to 31st dec 2017.....well done holders!:t_up:

sb9
11-10-2017, 09:40 AM
Bloody excellent....target $100 ACRM moves to 31st dec 2017.....well done holders!:t_up:

That's massive....great news, should easily go past $3 very soon...

kiora
11-10-2017, 09:46 AM
Ticks all the boxes.Well done PPH :)

King1212
11-10-2017, 10:00 AM
Looks like it is going to kaboom!:t_up:

Leftfield
11-10-2017, 10:00 AM
Fab news for holders. Happy to have spread some of my ATM love/gains into PPH!!

Beagle
11-10-2017, 10:02 AM
Fab news for holders. Happy to have spread some of my ATM love/gains into PPH!!

Roger that :) I put my paws up for some on the open at $2.83 and am in the money already.

iceman
11-10-2017, 10:04 AM
Roger that :) I put my paws up for some on the open at $2.83 and am in the money already.

Certainly looks very good on first read. Well done PPH

winner69
11-10-2017, 10:05 AM
ACMR going from $68m to $100m in one quarter isn't good - it's outrageous

King1212
11-10-2017, 10:06 AM
Not to mention to ipo in USA.....so....market will love it when the time is come

iceman
11-10-2017, 10:13 AM
Roger that :) I put my paws up for some on the open at $2.83 and am in the money already.

And silly me having sold quite a bit at 250 last week with my greedy profit taking. Bought them back more expensive this morning :-(

Beagle
11-10-2017, 10:28 AM
And silly me having sold quite a bit at 250 last week with my greedy profit taking. Bought them back more expensive this morning :-(

Relax mate, its simply impossible to be right 100% of the time. I sold out quite a while back at $2.00, feel better now ? :) The mark of an experienced intelligent investor is to freely admit they got it wrong and be prepared to reverse one's decision...at least that's what I tell myself to help me feel better lol

weasel
11-10-2017, 10:32 AM
On the negative side it looks like they have to rewrite their app from scratch. I hope they have someone on the payroll who can code because the old one had a nice clean look and feel, and seemed responsive.

ShouldHaveHeld
11-10-2017, 10:46 AM
On the negative side it looks like they have to rewrite their app from scratch. I hope they have someone on the payroll who can code because the old one had a nice clean look and feel, and seemed responsive.

Yeah dont worry, they have some VERY competent devs

sb9
11-10-2017, 11:40 AM
Traded volume so far close to 2.5mln with parcels of 500k being crossed at 2.90 a piece.
Wonder what happens when ASX opens...

sb9
11-10-2017, 02:09 PM
Listened to investor conf call at 11am. Pretty much discussed what they published in the release to the market.

That analyst Steven from Craigs had quite a few questions and good ones too. I'm picking they might come up with new recommendation and target price soon for their clients.

And some good questions from the analyst from Ord Minnet and one other firm (couldn't recall their name).

All in all Chris and team (Shane and James) sounded very upbeat...

fiasco
11-10-2017, 03:00 PM
Will be interesting to see what range analysts have this at, that growth target is insane, so much I had to dip my toes in today.

Beagle
11-10-2017, 03:07 PM
Listened to investor conf call at 11am. Pretty much discussed what they published in the release to the market.

That analyst Steven from Craigs had quite a few questions and good ones too. I'm picking they might come up with new recommendation and target price soon for their clients.

And some good questions from the analyst from Ord Minnet and one other firm (couldn't recall their name).

All in all Chris and team (Shane and James) sounded very upbeat...

Nice work, thanks for the feedback mate.

winner69
11-10-2017, 05:40 PM
That increased average per customer going from $540 to $790 per month is ginormous. Highlights what higher volume customers can bring

As a thought if 'customers' think that Push are taking too much of a cut of the transactions going through can they do much about it ...or pack a sad and decide to do collect their tithe another way.

King1212
11-10-2017, 06:58 PM
That increased average per customer going from $540 to $790 per month is ginormous. Highlights what higher volume customers can bring

As a thought if 'customers' think that Push are taking too much of a cut of the transactions going through can they do much about it ...or pack a sad and decide to do collect their tithe another way.

U got to think this way: etfpos....if all businesses think the etfpos terminals cost too much then find other ways..but etfpos increases the business transactions.

dont forget...a part of the monthly fee, Pushpay offers a lot of features....online sermons, announcements, and other things.

if that $790 monthly fee can raise more fund n make people donate more..then I think it is worthy...?

weasel
12-10-2017, 12:57 AM
So, I thought I'd test the system and searched the app for "arise". ARISE church is there, all good so far.

Then I went to the ARISE church website and clicked on "giving": "https://www.arisechurch.com/giving".

First option: Credit Card with a "Give Online Now" button.
Second option: For internet banking and setting up AP's you can give into the following accounts: <account numbers>

No mention whatsoever of PushPay.

Comments?