PPH - PushPay (Church/donor software.)

[percy]

I am really enjoying your touting...lol.

[winner69]

I am really enjoying your touting...lol.

Can't wait until it gets to $3.50

But I need to be a bit patient - but the share price will rocket over $2 soon

[percy]

Can't wait until it gets to $3.50

But I need to be a bit patient - but the share price will rocket over $2 soon

Patient................?
I did not think your new Guru Jared did "patient"?

[Jinx]

Although I'm loving the Winner Percy banter here's some interesting extracts from a private message regarding PPH.

- These guys(PPH board) aren't the holy crusaders trying to help the faith industry, my bet its a bunch of smarty's that saw a lucrative business opportunity.

- Last year they averaged 28% a quarter in Merchant growth, while this was a debatably a higher growth period for the company I'd be expecting at least half of last years growth which would mean 14% every quarter in merchant growth.

- Average revenue per customer, at 5.3% per quarter growth in ARPC that's half of the growth the company got every quarter last year.

Both of these calcs are at half the growth in Merchants and average revenue and we still reach our goals with ease.
I can't really see how they could screw this up. If they get the same growth they did last year then we'll be to our target by the end up June imo.

[winner69]

Good stuff Jinx

Yes indeed - over the last 12 months to Dec16 35% of the increase in AMCR has came from the greater average per customer. The other 65% came from increased number of customers.

Wow, fantastic eh - a double whammy

Next quarter will be interesting - cant wait

We'll be at $100m soon at this rate

[winner69]

I take it that the increasing average per customer is because they are signing on more lucrative / bigger customers than previously ....and that more and more punters are using it to do their 'paying' (ie more ticket clipping for Push.

Is that right or are there other reasons

[Jinx]

I take it that the increasing average per customer is because they are signing on more lucrative / bigger customers than previously ....and that more and more punters are using it to do their 'paying' (ie more ticket clipping for Push.

Is that right or are there other reasons Yeah this is my take on it, so if they sign a new church where they can make $800 monthly revenue the average goes up. If the church has already been signed then more of the church goers that sign up and donate through Pushpay also makes the average goes up. This is where i see the biggest increase comes from, many of the churches that have already been signed still wont have all of their attendees using Pushpay, I imagine in any given church the user rate still isn't higher then 50%. More paths to growth!

[Beagle]

https://pushpay.com/investors/videos

This probably been posted before (January 2017 Investor update) but they talk about re-pricing some of their smaller customer accounts.

[winner69]

At least share price hasn't gone down today .....that's good

[Jinx]

At least share price hasn't gone today .....that's good

I'd expect a drop to 186 today but after such an excellent run up this year plus all this extra maths I've been doing on the pushpay numbers I'll be a happy holder until we get another market update :)

[percy]

Just wondering - how much do they need to grow their ACMR of 42.3m to be able to pay not just for 341 staff (well, probably more by now) a handful of really big fat company cars for the execs plus lots of first class travel (for sure you can't travel cattle class when selling to the faithful ...), but to still keep some (hopefully at some stage positive) earnings which accrue to a NPV of NZD $500m (current market cap) within less than biblical time frames? Anybody did these numbers? What are the assumptions in terms of number of customers, monthly revenue per customer, and useful life of the app before the next big fad goes through the faith industry (who knows - maybe move towards telepathie based payment systems ;) or pushing cash might turn into a standard feature of Android 6 or 7?).

I think there is no doubt that PPH will earlier or later reach their XRO, WYN, DIL, PEB or GEN peak ... and sure, some of these companies do still exist (though somewhat downtrodden ...). Not sure I am looking forward to the discussions on the downhill slope ...

Discl: Don't ...

Well can't comment on too many things in your post,however I can put right the flash company cars.
I believe the executives drive modest cars.
The Audi "rocket ship" with the personalised plate "PSHPAY" is infact owned by a long time PPH investor.!!!
I think it was brought by his family, in recognition of the increase in family wealth, his investment in PPH has made.

ps.Long serving CEO and Chairman of EBO has always driven either beautiful Porsches or Ferraris.I for one would love to see him in a Bugatti Veyron,although I don't think he would be too happy paying seventeen thousand pounds for a new set of tyres.!

[BlackPeter]

Well can't comment on too many things in your post,however I can put right the flash company cars.
I believe the executives drive modest cars.
The Audi "rocket ship" with the personalised plate "PSHPAY" is infact owned by a long time PPH investor.!!!
...

Hi percy,

thanks for sharing this info with us .. I admit that I made re the company cars based on the photo you mentioned just an assumption and happy to bow to superior knowledge. Based on your info it looks like we both don't know what cars they are driving ... but you know which car they don't ;)

I stand corrected - always dangerous to make assumptions :blush:

[sb9]

":):)...I've recently broken that image mould Couta...I got adventurous and bought some PPH :cool:"

Hoop's post from AIR thread....

More and more FAITH in this, good on ya Hoop.

[Hoop]

":):)...I've recently broken that image mould Couta...I got adventurous and bought some PPH :cool:"

Hoop's post from AIR thread....

More and more FAITH in this, good on ya Hoop.

Thanks sb9:)
TA-wise..It is tracking nicely and the throwback to test the H&S neckline breakout (1.85) happens about 58% of the time, so no need for any divine shareprice faith yet as H&S patterns only fail about 4% of the time..There's a 74%** chance it will reach its target price of $2.43.
** when there are numerous or very strong resistances in the way the TP chances drop..PPH's depth shows some weak resistances developing at 2.00, and 2.07-2.10 area, which may be seen as a potential worry.

I'll will lower my TP chances...as I'm not a religious man:D;)

EDIT:...A worry I have... the H&S pattern is not yet 100% confirmed....If using closing day data (traditional), yes the pattern has confirmed....If using intra-day data the pattern did not hold its breakout gains at over $2.00 (marginal territory) and may have failed

Disc: Still holding

[sb9]

Thanks sb9:)
TA-wise..It is tracking nicely and the throwback to test the H&S neckline breakout (1.85) happens about 58% of the time, so no need for any divine shareprice faith yet as H&S patterns only fail about 4% of the time..There's a 74%** chance it will reach its target price of $2.43.
** when there are numerous or very strong resistances in the way the TP chances drop..PPH's depth shows some weak resistances developing at 2.00, and 2.07-2.10 area, which may be seen as a potential worry.

I'll will lower my TP chances...as I'm not a religious man:D;)

EDIT:...A worry I have... the H&S pattern is not yet 100% confirmed....If using closing day data (traditional), yes the pattern has confirmed....If using intra-day data the pattern did not hold its breakout gains at over $2.00 (marginal territory) and may have failed

Disc: Still holding

I agree Hoop, that $2 mark proving to be hard to break through and stay above. Think we need some update to further march ahead which is not due for another month so.

[kizame]

It's trying its best to break $2, April 12 next update. Hopefully I will also be back in by then.

[kizame]

These are cheaper on the Aussie market by 12cents, 1.71 close = $1.83 here, hmm... where to buy.

[Hoop]

It's trying its best to break $2, April 12 next update. Hopefully I will also be back in by then.
What stopped you buying in ($1.86) on the (2nd chance to buy) throwback?
Back up to $1.99 this morning......The weak $2.00 resistance is now a lot stronger.


These are cheaper on the Aussie market by 12cents, 1.71 close = $1.83 here, hmm... where to buy.
Well..it may be $A1.71 at close but atm you can't buy any shares for less than $A1.91 ($NZ2.03)....That throwback opportunity may have evaporated as well (and there's no resistance anywhere)

Disc: Hold

[kizame]

What stopped you buying in ($1.86) on the (2nd chance to buy) throwback?
Back up to $1.99 this morning......The weak $2.00 resistance is now a lot stronger.

To be honest,I thought they were going to continue down, I bought a whole lot at the last drop at $1.35 and sold at $1.86, so maybe a bit of a psychological thing cos I had sold at that price.

[Hoop]

What stopped you buying in ($1.86) on the (2nd chance to buy) throwback?
Back up to $1.99 this morning......The weak $2.00 resistance is now a lot stronger.

To be honest,I thought they were going to continue down, I bought a whole lot at the last drop at $1.35 and sold at $1.86, so maybe a bit of a psychological thing cos I had sold at that price.

Yep Kizame..I can understand that motive..

[sb9]

https://nzx.com/companies/PPH/announcements/297521

Another award....certainly moving in the right direction.

[Jinx]

https://nzx.com/companies/PPH/announcements/297521

Another award....certainly moving in the right direction.

It's a long time before our next quarter update in April, plenty of time to beat the years guidance. My guess is the next time we get a price sensitive update the sp won't stay around $2 for long.

[sb9]

It's a long time before our next quarter update in April, plenty of time to beat the years guidance. My guess is the next time we get a price sensitive update the sp won't stay around $2 for long.

You mean a takeover or buyout perhaps ;)

[Jinx]

You mean a takeover or buyout perhaps ;)

I'd be VERY surprised if management would be willing to sell up before they make their 100M target.

[reacher]

Will we hear about the next ACMR target before 100M is reached or will PPH milk it for all the PR possible?

[winner69]

Jeez down in 180s ......probably 170s soon .....then what

I'm worried I got caught up in the hype and loaded up on a pup with low liquidity at it's peak.

As they say one has to be the greater fool every now and again - congrats to the clever ones who sold them to me

[percy]

Jeez down in 180s ......probably 170s soon .....then what

I'm worried I got caught up in the hype and loaded up on a pup with low liquidity at it's peak.

As they say one has to be the greater fool every now and again - congrats to the clever ones who sold them to me

I dare not comment.!!!...lol.

[kizame]

Jeez down in 180s ......probably 170s soon .....then what

I'm worried I got caught up in the hype and loaded up on a pup with low liquidity at it's peak.

As they say one has to be the greater fool every now and again - congrats to the clever ones who sold them to me

You have to ask yourself on what basis did you buy into this fast growing overachieving huge potential tech company in the first place,do you not believe in what is being achieved and the potential here?
My personal view is,that this is THE tech company with the greatest potential on our market at the moment. Another DIL in the making as far as I can see.
Now I might be overhyping,then again I may not be.

[Beagle]

You have to ask yourself on what basis did you buy into this fast growing overachieving huge potential tech company in the first place,do you not believe in what is being achieved and the potential here?
My personal view is,that this is THE tech company with the greatest potential on our market at the moment. Another DIL in the making as far as I can see.
Now I might be overhyping,then again I may not be.

Well said, agree 100%. Lot's of positive talk yesterday at the Auckland meeting about how good it is that they're aiming to be cash flow neutral within such a relatively short space of time since listing. Makes a VERY stark contrast to Xero and almost all other N.Z. SAAS and tech companies.

[Whitebeard]

Article here in Time magazine.
http://time.com/money/4685834/digital-church-donations-millennials/

[winner69]

You have to ask yourself on what basis did you buy into this fast growing overachieving huge potential tech company in the first place,do you not believe in what is being achieved and the potential here?
My personal view is,that this is THE tech company with the greatest potential on our market at the moment. Another DIL in the making as far as I can see.
Now I might be overhyping,then again I may not be.

You answered the question for me - it's a fast growing overachieving huge potential tech company.......and astute followers said the share price is going to $3.60 this year.

That's why I bought ......and now worried that I bought at the top because I'm under water at the moment - unlike majority of other punters.

[kizame]

You answered the question for me - it's a fast growing overachieving huge potential tech company.......and astute followers said the share price is going to $3.60 this year.

That's why I bought ......and now worried that I bought at the top because I'm under water at the moment - unlike majority of other punters.

Not so... Have a wee look at where the shareprice was before it listed in Aus. I'm sure there are many more "under the water" at the moment,but if the shareprice is going to 3.60, so what.
Too much potential here to worry about short term noise.

[Beagle]

Yeap, no worries, I overheard two personal trainers at the gym saying it would hit $3.50 - $3.60 by Christmas and you could set your watch by that so we're all good :D

[kizame]

You answered the question for me - it's a fast growing overachieving huge potential tech company.......and astute followers said the share price is going to $3.60 this year.

That's why I bought ......and now worried that I bought at the top because I'm under water at the moment - unlike majority of other punters.

Not so... Have a wee look at where the shareprice was before it listed in Aus. I'm sure there are many more "under the water" at the moment,but if the shareprice is going to 3.60, so what.
Too much potential here to worry about short term noise.

[BlackPeter]

Yeap, no worries, I overheard two personal trainers at the gym saying it would hit $3.50 - $3.60 by Christmas and you could set your watch by that so we're all good :D

classic post ...

and must be true - that's what my shoe shine boy was reckoning as well ;).

[kizame]

classic post ...

and must be true - that's what my shoe shine boy was reckoning as well ;).

You have your OWN shoeshine boy!

[BlackPeter]

You have your OWN shoeshine boy!

You don't?

Just kidding ... I never said that I OWN a shoeshine boy.

Need to wait for Trump to first repeal the relevant legislation now that the South did win the war ... and than annex NZ (though the other way around might work as well ...).

[Beagle]

classic post ...

and must be true - that's what my shoe shine boy was reckoning as well ;).

LOL definitely tongue firmly in cheek as I do hold, (albeit a very modest position worth 3% of my portfolio). When punting, (and lets be honest anything currently not EPS positive is a punt rather than an investment...well, at least in in my book although it wouldn't surprise me if some beg to differ), it pays to measure your bets with a very healthy dose of common sense and prudence. This stock has a lot of potential but as far as I am concerned risk management 101 still applies.

[Jinx]

Watching the sp drop is definitely not the best thing to see but after running their growth numbers a few weeks back (some of which can be found in this post) I have no doubt they have set this up to over perform. As long as they get half the growth they did last year they reach their 100m target and get cash flow positive by Q3.

[Snow Leopard]

The great thing about a growing company which is currently making a loss is that you can imagine any size future pie that you wish.

It is as easy to write '$100 million profit' as it is to write '$100 thousand profit' (probably easier: it has one less letter and you have that double 'l') so why not?

When a company starts being profitable in the accounting sense then often a reality sets in and the SP falls.

But PPH is not there yet and the simple Tiger Test for Tempting Techs is this question:

In the foreseeable future* can you see this company making a profit equal to 10% of the current market capitalisation (PPH market cap: $471M) ?

If the answer is 'No' it is definitely over-priced from your investment perspective.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

*a somewhat vague term that you will wish to quantify yourself

[winner69]

The great thing about a growing company which is currently making a loss is that you can imagine any size future pie that you wish.

It is as easy to write '$100 million profit' as it is to write '$100 thousand profit' (probably easier: it has one less letter and you have that double 'l') so why not?

When a company starts being profitable in the accounting sense then often a reality sets in and the SP falls.

But PPH is not there yet and the simple Tiger Test for Tempting Techs is this question:

In the foreseeable future* can you see this company making a profit equal to 10% of the current market capitalisation (PPH market cap: $471M) ?

If the answer is 'No' it is definitely over-priced from your investment perspective.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

*a somewhat vague term that you will wish to quantify yourself

With cool charts like this anything is possible Paper Tiger ....so the answer to your question is very likely (in the foreseeable future)

Even on a log scale it would look pretty good

[Pricey]

You have to ask yourself on what basis did you buy into this fast growing overachieving huge potential tech company in the first place,do you not believe in what is being achieved and the potential here?
My personal view is,that this is THE tech company with the greatest potential on our market at the moment. Another DIL in the making as far as I can see.
Now I might be overhyping,then again I may not be.

Agree Kizame - I will be accumulating throughout March and think the SP will float lower during this time. From then on, its all upwards with frequent announcements pushing it higher (one in each of April, May, and July). I am pretty confident $72m ACMR will be reached well before year end as well.

[winner69]

Paper Tiger makes a good point - will PPH ever justify a $471 market cap?

But I'm beginning to wonder if the clever people have done their sums (DCFs etc) and come to the conclusion that current valuation is about right assuming growth continues and there's no disasters / hiccups along the way - in other words in $2 about the righ price for PPH

Recall Xero - plenty of hype around $18/$20 and it shot up to over $40 before the sums were done and it drifted back to $18/$20 and has stayed there for a long time.

With PPH was the hype/excitment to $2.75 the big spike up (like Xero's $40) and settling back to $1.80/$2.00 an indication that is what PPH is really worth. If it follows Xero then it could stay around this level for some time .....unless something bad happens and the share price collapses.

That happened to DIL and he share price did recover but not back to previous highs. It found a level that the market was 'happy' with and stayed there for a while until 'taken over'

Just thinking aloud here - beginning I've paid over the odds for PPH - but then it could be all OK if the world stays so happy and things like Snapchat fly to make tech the in thing again.

[winner69]

Just done a DCF for Push

To get a feel for the assumptions I have made ebitda in 2020 is $55m and Paper Tigers $47m NPAT happens in 2021.

My base case DCF valuation is $2.40 and that's on a discount rate of 10% and 3% pa growth after 2024 (would prefer to use a higher discount rate)

If things aren't as bullish value is $1.50 and if they exceed my expectations $3.33

So not too bad ...maybe

[Beagle]

No worries mate, every 15 years or so along comes another generation of investors ready to push things into the stratosphere so taking into account the last huge dotcom tech bubble of 2001 16 years ago, we're already overdue by one year. XRO taking so long to get cash flow neutral it is a sick joke and doesn't bear any comparison with PPH.

[sb9]

https://nzx.com/companies/PPH/announcements/298293

Quarterly update on 12th Apr, hopefully it would've pushed thro' $2 mark by that time...

[winner69]

https://nzx.com/companies/PPH/announcements/298293

Quarterly update on 12th Apr, hopefully it would've pushed thro' $2 mark by that time...

Jeez that's ages away - can't they announce something now as a teaser

PPH not behaving likea stock heading to $3.60 by this Christmas

Maybe shouldn't have listened to the hype (and what personal trainers supposedly said)

[kizame]

Jeez that's ages away - can't they announce something now as a teaser

PPH not behaving likea stock heading to $3.60 by this Christmas

Maybe shouldn't have listened to the hype (and what personal trainers supposedly said)

Gosh what a nervous nelly, and you are not behaving like a seasoned investor with nearly 16,000 posts.

[winner69]

Gosh what a nervous nelly, and you are not behaving like a seasoned investor with nearly 16,000 posts.

Maybe PPH isn't investing per se - it's more like punting and punting implies excitement and adrenalin rushes

Push of late been boring as .....and not doing enough to get to $3.50 by Christmas

And I have a couple of spreadsheets to update - can't wait

[Jinx]

12th of April will be an interesting day! My guess is they move the 100m nzd target forward to Q2 at best and Q3 at worst :)

[percy]

Jeez that's ages away - can't they announce something now as a teaser

PPH not behaving likea stock heading to $3.60 by this Christmas

Maybe shouldn't have listened to the hype (and what personal trainers supposedly said)

1st April more to your liking?

[winner69]

12th of April will be an interesting day! My guess is they move the 100m nzd target forward to Q2 at best and Q3 at worst :)

Hope so - that'll be good news

[winner69]

1st April more to your liking?

Nice one Percy

[winner69]

Before the days if apps and kiosks the collection plate was passed around and as a kid I dutifully put in the silver coin my Mum gave me.

Mum also said it was rude to look at what other people put in the plate but I being curious always had to have a look. One Sunday I saw the guy who I delivered the paper to put in a pound note.

That man often tipped me a pound because I took his paper up to the front door on wet days. When I saw him put a pound note in the collection plate I thought I was so so special - almost as special as God himself.

The good old days eh.

[MikeE]

Long time reader, first time poster. Any refreshed thoughts on the upcoming 12 April annoucement? Very little volume atm. Are we thinking a rise up above $2 post announcement?

[Jinx]

Long time reader, first time poster. Any refreshed thoughts on the upcoming 12 April annoucement? Very little volume atm. Are we thinking a rise up above $2 post announcement?

If you look a few pages back into the discussion there's a few pieces of data talking about the growth numbers. As far as I'm concerned this whole company (like Xero) has been set up the company to light a fire under the share price, for management and the shareholders.

Let me expand, management have said they have a break even target of 100M nzd in transactions, they said they were planning for this to be in 2017 with no further date (as far as I've seen, please enlighten me) people assume it'll be late 2017 but my guess is Q3 at the latest. There next update is going to show all of the growth of trumps election time (pretty sure both the left and right donate more money around times of political tention).

12th of April is marked down as a date to remember in my books, $2.50 will be instant if they hint at a Q3 or earlier target time and growth is still on track. Hope this helps, keep in mind it's an obviously bias view from a holder!

[MikeE]

Thanks Jinx. Appreciate the comments. I too agree April 12 should be very interesting! Would expect some more volume in the next few weeks with people loading up on what may be a very cheap $1.90 in weeks to come

[Beagle]

If you look a few pages back into the discussion there's a few pieces of data talking about the growth numbers. As far as I'm concerned this whole company (like Xero) has been set up the company to light a fire under the share price, for management and the shareholders.

Let me expand, management have said they have a break even target of 100M nzd in transactions, they said they were planning for this to be in 2017 with no further date (as far as I've seen, please enlighten me) people assume it'll be late 2017 but my guess is Q3 at the latest. There next update is going to show all of the growth of trumps election time (pretty sure both the left and right donate more money around times of political tention).

12th of April is marked down as a date to remember in my books, $2.50 will be instant if they hint at a Q3 or earlier target time and growth is still on track. Hope this helps, keep in mind it's an obviously bias view from a holder!

Good post. I have it marked in my diary as 11.00 a.m. on the day, I presume this is a webcasted update ?

[BlackPeter]

Thanks Jinx. Appreciate the comments. I too agree April 12 should be very interesting! Would expect some more volume in the next few weeks with people loading up on what may be a very cheap $1.90 in weeks to come

It may be as well very dear ... Jeez - a nearly $500m market cap for a loss making start up who are working neither on rocket science nor on improving human life in any shape or form. They just hacked a wee app together to take money from the faithful.

I am sure the plot will work and the faithful will pay. Just not sure at this stage whether it will be the faithful church goers or the faithful shareholders who will foot the ultimate bill :p. But than - the greater fool theory still might apply.

[Beagle]

It may be as well very dear ... Jeez - a nearly $500m market cap for a loss making start up who are working neither on rocket science nor on improving human life in any shape or form. They just hacked a wee app together to take money from the faithful.

I am sure the plot will work and the faithful will pay. Just not sure at this stage whether it will be the faithful church goers or the faithful shareholders who will foot the ultimate bill :p. But than - the greater fool theory still might apply.

Oh ye of little faith...maybe of you went to a church which had Pushpay and saw all the young people using it you wouldn't be such a doubting Thomas :p

[kizame]

It may be as well very dear ... Jeez - a nearly $500m market cap for a loss making start up who are working neither on rocket science nor on improving human life in any shape or form. They just hacked a wee app together to take money from the faithful.

I am sure the plot will work and the faithful will pay. Just not sure at this stage whether it will be the faithful church goers or the faithful shareholders who will foot the ultimate bill :p. But than - the greater fool theory still might apply.

A large amount of technology isn't rocket science,but do you not think that it quite amazing that in a country the size of the US,that a tech company there didn't think of this and seize the opportunity?
Well these guys have,and good luck to us all for having some faith. Look at the opportunity,they only have a little over 1% of the market ( my figures may be slightly out of date).
Blackpeter I'm starting to think that you thought of the same concept but they beat you to it,c'mon buy a few shares and change your slant a bit,just a couple of thousand,you may end up smiling.

[winner69]

Don't forget someones personal trainer said $3.50 by Christmas

Still slowly adding to my pile - hopelessly overweight in this (considering the risk) ....but then again Winx keeps on winning and she could break her leg any day

[BlackPeter]

Oh ye of little faith...maybe of you went to a church which had Pushpay and saw all the young people using it you wouldn't be such a doubting Thomas :p

Maybe ...?

But than, maybe the problem is that when I go to church I hardly see young people ;)...

[peat]

Ascending triangle waiting for confirmation and pullback before possible long?
8764

[Jinx]

Good post. I have it marked in my diary as 11.00 a.m. on the day, I presume this is a webcasted update ?

Last time was a webcast, should be :)


It may be as well very dear ... Jeez - a nearly $500m market cap for a loss making start up who are working neither on rocket science nor on improving human life in any shape or form. They just hacked a wee app together to take money from the faithful.

I am sure the plot will work and the faithful will pay. Just not sure at this stage whether it will be the faithful church goers or the faithful shareholders who will foot the ultimate bill :p. But than - the greater fool theory still might apply.

I really don't think you can value a tech company with a lot of downloads and a far reach the same way we value a standard company. If they get to their goal earlier then expected the market cap is going to be far over $500m, All you have to do is look at U.S tech companies and it's clear that market caps can be insane for a decent app.

As a young person who knows nobody my age who attends church it seems clear Pushpay is marketed towards mum and dads. The app is easy to use and allows those who aren't technologically minded to throw their money at their local fairy land. I also would guess most of the directors aren't church goers either :p

[winner69]

jinx ...

I really don't think you can value a tech company with a lot of downloads and a far reach the same way we value a standard company. If they get to their goal earlier then expected the market cap is going to be far over $500m, All you have to do is look at U.S tech companies and it's clear that market caps can be insane for a decent app.

Far over $500m - let's hope its a billion dollar company soon

[BlackPeter]

I really don't think you can value a tech company with a lot of downloads and a far reach the same way we value a standard company. If they get to their goal earlier then expected the market cap is going to be far over $500m, All you have to do is look at U.S tech companies and it's clear that market caps can be insane for a decent app.


How else would you like to value a company? It doesn't matter whether a company grows apples, designs medical devices, offers accounting services, a licence to watch rugby games or whether it makes it more convenient for the faithful to transfer funds to their church ... the only sensible way to measure all of these companies is to check whether they return over the long term more money to their shareholders than what the shareholders paid for them in the beginning (and obviously, whether there is a big enough positive return left after deducting the initial costs).

Without going into the depths of a DCF analysis - if they have at current a market cap of $500m, than they would need to return at least $50m per year to shareholders (i.e. revenue after cost) if they would be profitable now. Obviously - they are not and given that shareholders pay the money now and they only get a weak promise that they might ever see this money again, they would need to pay back more than that per year to make the risk worthwhile.

Can anybody derive a credible business case for them making hundreds of millions of dollars per year for a prolonged time? That's what they would need to make to be worth 500m dollars now. If not, than this is only another pyramide schema. Sure - the share price might still go up for a time (or it might not ...) ... but these schemas always crash before they pay out the money (just following the laws of physics).

[winner69]

How else would you like to value a company? It doesn't matter whether a company grows apples, designs medical devices, offers accounting services, a licence to watch rugby games or whether it makes it more convenient for the faithful to transfer funds to their church ... the only sensible way to measure all of these companies is to check whether they return over the long term more money to their shareholders than what the shareholders paid for them in the beginning (and obviously, whether there is a big enough positive return left after deducting the initial costs).

Without going into the depths of a DCF analysis - if they have at current a market cap of $500m, than they would need to return at least $50m per year to shareholders (i.e. revenue after cost) if they would be profitable now. Obviously - they are not and given that shareholders pay the money now and they only get a weak promise that they might ever see this money again, they would need to pay back more than that per year to make the risk worthwhile.

Can anybody derive a credible business case for them making hundreds of millions of dollars per year for a prolonged time? That's what they would need to make to be worth 500m dollars now. If not, than this is only another pyramide schema. Sure - the share price might still go up for a time (or it might not ...) ... but these schemas always crash before they pay out the money (just following the laws of physics).

You want to see how big future years cash flows cold be here

Wow


http://clarecapital.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Clare-Capital-Pushpay-Holdings-Limited-1m-to-10m-ACMR-in-less-than-5-quarters.pdf

[winner69]

Jinx - some of them go to church

Now based in the United States, Pushpay started in 2011 out of a frustration by founders Chris Heaslip​ and Eliot Crowther over how difficult it was to donate money in church without cash.

"[We] were sitting in church on a Sunday with our phones, but no cash," Heaslip said.

"When it came time to give, we thought, what if it was as easy to give, as it is to buy a song on iTunes?"

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/86146585/Pushpay-the-Kiwi-company-bringing-mobile-payments-to-US-churches

[BlackPeter]

You want to see how big future years cash flows cold be here

Wow


http://clarecapital.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Clare-Capital-Pushpay-Holdings-Limited-1m-to-10m-ACMR-in-less-than-5-quarters.pdf

Interesting reading, sends "cold" shivers down my spine. Thanks for posting.

Reminds me though of the various "Research Reports" I have seen for companies like CRP, WYN, PEB and others. As the report says - it has been paid by PPH (presumably to justify another Cap Rise?) and Clare Capital seeks further business with PPH. This makes the predictions quite rose-tinted, but still assumes a negative NPAT through to 2018 (no further values provided) and assumes that cash flow stays negative until 2018 as well. I note as well that the actual merchant numbers are already behind the predictions in the report.

It is as well unusual for any technology to just keep rising ... normally it will be at some stage replaced by the "next big thing". They forgot to model this effect. Not sure I would put my money on this report.

Anyway ... all the best to all holders with this investment. They say faith is "belief not based on proof" and "religion puts faith above reason". In this context I see it as highly appropriate that this company serves the "faith industry".

[winner69]

But BlackPeter you have to love that 'hyper growth' they are experiencing

And that's with not yet making much inroads into the total available market - just wait until they get some real momentum going ....wow

[janner]

But BlackPeter you have to love that 'hyper growth' they are experiencing

And that's with not yet making much inroads into the total available market - just wait until they get some real momentum going ....wow

Akin to SHARIA ??

For many churches, the answer is the tithe.* “Tithing is God’s way of financing His kingdom on the earth,” claims evangelist Norman Robertson. “It is His system of economics which enables the Gospel to be preached.” Not shy about reminding his followers of their responsibility to give, he emphatically states: ‘Tithing isn’t something you do because you can afford it. It is an act of obedience. Not tithing is a clear violation of God’s commandments. It is embezzlement.’—Tithing—God’s Financial Plan.

[winner69]

Akin to SHARIA ??

For many churches, the answer is the tithe.* “Tithing is God’s way of financing His kingdom on the earth,” claims evangelist Norman Robertson. “It is His system of economics which enables the Gospel to be preached.” Not shy about reminding his followers of their responsibility to give, he emphatically states: ‘Tithing isn’t something you do because you can afford it. It is an act of obedience. Not tithing is a clear violation of God’s commandments. It is embezzlement.’—Tithing—God’s Financial Plan.

....and having apps like Push offer probably reduces the risk of dare I say iy stealing from the collection plate

[janner]

....and having apps like Push offer probably reduces the risk of dare I say iy stealing from the collection plate

Stealing is a sin... Why would you think that it would happen in a church ??

[winner69]

Stealing is a sin... Why would you think that it would happen in a church ??

Not just the congregation but it appears as if some of those who should really know stealing is a sin a bigger culprits
http://www.fraud-magazine.com/article.aspx?id=4294967784

[janner]

Oh !.. It could of course happen in one of those churches Sikhs... Hindu's and Mozlems rush into for " Sanctuary "..

From deportation.

[janner]

Sorry. Of topic.. If the American bible belt take it on... Moneeee

[sb9]

I'm just on the lookout for 12th April report, nuff said.

[kizame]

Definately 12th will be interesting. I think also it has been brought up a couple of times about young people not being church goers so much here.
But in the states I think it's very different,it is very much a lifestyle and family tradition and yep the bible belt will be the making of this company,very interesting times ahead,and not to mention Europe and maybe south america where there is a strong christian belief.

[Baa_Baa]

Oh !.. It could of course happen in one of those churches Sikhs... Hindu's and Mozlems rush into for " Sanctuary "..

From deportation.

Where angels fear to tread!

[peat]

Sorry. Of topic.. If the American bible belt take it on... Moneeee
they are taking it on

Pushpay now has more than 5200 merchants, including five of the top 10, and 30 of the top 100 largest churches in the US, and processed more than US$1b in payments a year.

[MikeE]

Bit more volume today..

[BlackPeter]

Bit more volume today..

Not really spectacular - and the price is dropping. Signs that the dam might burst?

[Beagle]

Not really spectacular - and the price is dropping. Signs that the dam might burst?

Most promising tech / SASS company on the market by miles in my opinion.

[Hoop]

Not really spectacular - and the price is dropping. Signs that the dam might burst?

Throwback trading behaviour...Retesting its breakout price (support) $1.85 again..In theory throwbacks happens 50-60% of the time, they are normally bullish events, and so offer a 2nd chance buy in or in this case a 3rd chance to buy/accumulate.
Noted that it is still technically a bear (MA200 is $2.01)..
Bollinger Bands squeezed tightly indicating a change of tempo or a change of trend in the near future

Disc: Holding and accumulating (with tight stops)

[winner69]

Throwback trading behaviour...Retesting its breakout price (support) $1.85 again..In theory throwbacks happens 50-60% of the time, they are normally bullish events, and so offer a 2nd chance buy in or in this case a 3rd chance to buy/accumulate.
Noted that it is still technically a bear (MA200 is $2.01)..
Bollinger Bands squeezed tightly indicating a change of tempo or a change of trend in the near future

Disc: Holding and accumulating (with tight stops)

Yippee - change in tempo and change in trend = breakout breakout

Seems $2.50 (if not before April at least on the big announcement) and them $3.50 by Christmas as the personal trainer predicted

Trying not to getting to excited but getting bored with the action lately.

[Hoop]

Yippee - change in tempo and change in trend = breakout breakout

Seems $2.50 (if not before April at least on the big announcement) and them $3.50 by Christmas as the personal trainer predicted

Trying not to getting to excited but getting bored with the action lately.

They say patience is a virtue..however on the other side of the coin they say he who hesitates is lost...I guess we won't have long to ponder which side is right this time..eh

[Kiwi]

They say patience is a virtue..however on the other side of the coin they say he who hesitates is lost...I guess we won't have long to ponder which side is right this time..eh

Hoop. I dived in and purchased a few of these shares the other day as they seem to me to be an exciting tech company that could be bought out by a bigger business shortly.
With trump in power, I imagine that the churches in the US are full with people praying for the country and donating like crazy.
Where's the share price going on the 12th?

[MikeE]

Hoop. I dived in and purchased a few of these shares the other day as they seem to me to be an exciting tech company that could be bought out by a bigger business shortly.
With trump in power, I imagine that the churches in the US are full with people praying for the country and donating like crazy.
Where's the share price going on the 12th?[/QUOTE]

Interesting day today!

[Kiwi]

Hoop. I dived in and purchased a few of these shares the other day as they seem to me to be an exciting tech company that could be bought out by a bigger business shortly.
With trump in power, I imagine that the churches in the US are full with people praying for the country and donating like crazy.
Where's the share price going on the 12th?

Interesting day today![/QUOTE]

Hi MikeE. I'm feeling the pain on a few other stocks as well today. Thank god for HBL.

[Baa_Baa]

Hoop. I dived in and purchased a few of these shares the other day as they seem to me to be an exciting tech company that could be bought out by a bigger business shortly.
With trump in power, I imagine that the churches in the US are full with people praying for the country and donating like crazy.
Where's the share price going on the 12th?

PPH turned tail on the short term rising trend line, which is also right on the larger EMA's 50 & 100. It might just be that the NZ tech sector tends to get hit whenever ones of it's ilk has a downer moment, like OHE today crapping out on guidance. It tends to bring everything 'tech' down with it.

In any event, PPH had an amazing run until the share consolidation, then it's been all down trend wild side ride since then. You'd have to ask yourself whether investors think PPH is really worth it's market cap, or whether this lengthy 'consolidation with volatility' phase could continue for the foreseeable future.

Sometime share prices just hang around waiting for the fundamentals to catch up with them. Smart traders can work the 30-50-100% swing margin, but they're onto it every day.

[winner69]

For such an exciting company with such huge potential it's share price chart is one sad picture

Jeez down to 180 but I keep the faith and slowly averaging down (bad practice). Not many sellers out there are there - c'mon we need a bit of panic selling

All good - going to be $3.50 by Christmas they say

[percy]

For such an exciting company with such huge potential it's share price chart is one sad picture

Jeez down to 180 but I keep the faith and slowly averaging down (bad practice). Not many sellers out there are there - c'mon we need a bit of panic selling

All good - going to be $3.50 by Christmas they say

Winner 69.
What can I say.????

[iceman]

Winner 69.
What can I say.????

I suggest "take a deep breath and chill out" :-)

[percy]

I suggest "take a deep breath and chill out" :-)

No,no,no.
As he is "underwater", if he took a deep breath he would drown, rather than chill out.!!!

[iceman]

no,no,no.
As he is "underwater", if he took a deep breath he would drown, rather than chill out.!!!

lol :-):-)

[winner69]

I suggest "take a deep breath and chill out" :-)

Patience not always one of my strengths. Shouldn't have listened to the hype a month or so ago.

Not long to a trip to Iceland - good place to chill out I'm told - and come back to see Push in the high 200s

[percy]

Patience not always one of my strengths. Shouldn't have listened to the hype a month or so ago.

Not long to a trip to Iceland - good place to chill out I'm told - and come back to see Push in the high 200s
I hear they have a great Whale Watch experience there.
May even accept PPH shares as payment?

[BlackPeter]

I hear they have a great Whale Watch experience there.
May even accept PPH shares as payment?

Not sure about the latter ... I think they already learned their lessons on financial bubbles;)
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/09/iceland-bankruptcy.asp

[sb9]

Patience not always one of my strengths. Shouldn't have listened to the hype a month or so ago.



Exactly a week to go and then you can decide your next move, just be lil patient until then....

[percy]

Not sure about the latter ... I think they already learned their lessons on financial bubbles;)
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/09/iceland-bankruptcy.asp

Lessons learnt, their economy is now booming,much like their "Whale Watching".

[BlackPeter]

Lessons learnt, their economy is now booming,much like their "Whale Watching".

Correct, their economy is booming because they don't accept PPH shares ...

[winner69]

Share price back to where it was early Feb

Price action not what you would expect leading up to next weeks announcement if it is going to be a boomer of one.

Hope a case of sell the rumour and buy on the facts (next week) .....not that I've heard any rumours about impending bad news

[couta1]

Share price back to where it was early Feb

Price action not what you would expect leading up to next weeks announcement if it is going to be a boomer of one.

Hope a case of sell the rumour and buy on the facts (next week) .....not that I've heard any rumours about impending bad news Okay winner, I've just joined you in the nervous queue, except I'm not under water yet.

[iceman]

Okay winner, I've just joined you in the nervous queue, except I'm not under water yet.

Somehow I find that hard to believe couta1 :-)

[couta1]

Somehow I find that hard to believe couta1 :-) Just thought I'd try make him feel better.:)

[Jinx]

I must say I'm reasonably surprised about the drop in sp over the past few weeks leading up to the update next week. At this market cap with the current market sentiment I really think this update needs to be a stunner otherwise we will see a sharp decline in sp.

However as I've said before after running their growth numbers I think they've set this whole business up to over deliver on targets. I topped up this week ready for the news next week but I also understand it's partly a gamble.

Last 3 quarters they've jumped up 7.7m, 6m and 8.4m ACMR respectively. If we see anything above a 8.4m jump in ACMR regardless of how the sp moves I'll be a happy camper.

[winner69]

I must say I'm reasonably surprised about the drop in sp over the past few weeks leading up to the update next week. At this market cap with the current market sentiment I really think this update needs to be a stunner otherwise we will see a sharp decline in sp.

However as I've said before after running their growth numbers I think they've set this whole business up to over deliver on targets. I topped up this week ready for the news next week but I also understand it's partly a gamble.

Last 3 quarters they've jumped up 7.7m, 6m and 8.4m ACMR respectively. If we see anything above a 8.4m jump in ACMR regardless of how the sp moves I'll be a happy camper.

Please don't say words lie 'sharp decline' after all the hype.

Announcement better be a stunner ....or else we will be saying yes the 'market' knew more than us plebs.

Only small volumes though.

[winner69]

Okay winner, I've just joined you in the nervous queue, except I'm not under water yet.

No way .....

[winner69]

Is today the day they come out with the next set of exciting numbers to put a rocket under the share price

[sb9]

Is today the day they come out with the next set of exciting numbers to put a rocket under the share price

Give it another 24 hours...

[winner69]

Give it another 24 hours...

Bugger - excitement getting to me

Does this outfit 'leak information'

[MikeE]

Agree - fairly excited! What is everyones 'gut' feel? Like you say winner69, you'd think there'd be a slow rally up on leaked information in the week before lol... Today should be telling

[sb9]

Hmmm...up 7% so far or 13c, hope tomorrow is not going to be a fizzer. Must have some FAITH!!!

[Beagle]

Bugger - excitement getting to me

Does this outfit 'leak information'

Judging by the share price action today someone knows something already and is acting on it.

[ben28]

low volumes. From every buyer there is a seller , so may be the sellers know something also.
I think the price rise is driven by those that feel the must have the stock for the 12th. The sellers are happy to hold but at the higher price they are happy to take the money .
Whats the saying, 'buy the rumour, sell the fact'?
Even if its another expected result , is the company worth 500m at present?
I guess all will be revealed in the next few days

[winner69]

Wish the share price chart go up as steeply as the pretty charts in the Push presentations.

[Hoop]

low volumes. From every buyer there is a seller , so may be the sellers know something also.
I think the price rise is driven by those that feel the must have the stock for the 12th. The sellers are happy to hold but at the higher price they are happy to take the money .
Whats the saying, 'buy the rumour, sell the fact'?
Even if its another expected result , is the company worth 500m at present?
I guess all will be revealed in the next few days

Hmmm...Momentum people may disagree....Looking chartwise the recent price fall was due to PPH stocks being illiquid with a very few sellers but even less buyers.
This stock has shown a lack of investor interest for 6 weeks so a lack of momentum causes the price to weaken..

Many sellers are small time investors with lazy portfolios and do not actively monitor their portfolios during each day as they have better things to do..so when an unexpected increase in buyer volume occurs (as we see today) with an illiquid stock the sellers get cleaned out and the price gaps up...When this happens, and listen carefully you can hear the lazy sellers saying bugger..bugger..bugger. :D.

The depth resistances are small fish at the moment so if buyers keep up this rekindled interest in PPH it could race on through all its resistances and break quickly through the $2 area.

Illiquidity is a 2 edged sword as the same applies in reverse..Large purchases of Illiquid shares should be bought with a clear understanding...When a disappointing announcement occurs they can be very difficult to off load as the price races down breaking supports as it goes...The caught investor is then faced with what number is their hair cut..

All to do with acceptability of risk v reward as measured by price patterns and Beta coefficients..

Disc: Hold

[Pricey]

Crystal ball gazing: 6942 Merchants, $596 ARPM, $49m ACMR.
Crystal ball gazing after a couple of drinks: 7003 Merchants, $607 ARPM, $51m ACMR.
Crystal ball gazing with the help of god: ?????

[Blondie]

Hey Winner, Winner..........will we be chicken dinner today??

Only 4 hours and 52 mins to wait now!!!

Disc: also hold PPH!!

Blondie

[winner69]

Hey Winner, Winner..........will we be chicken dinner today??

Only 4 hours and 52 mins to wait now!!!

Disc: also hold PPH!!

Blondie

Still waiting Blondie

What a Mickey Mouse outfit but then us retail retail investors don't really matter eh

Were going to released prior to conference ...why not 8.30am

[Bilbo]

Still waiting Blondie

What a Mickey Mouse outfit but then us retail retail investors don't really matter eh

Were going to released prior to conference ...why not 8.30am

In the past they have released the results at the time of the conference call. I assume there must be a reason for that - something regulatory maybe?

[NZSilver]

50.5m ($625/customer) very good numbers

[Blondie]

Hi Winner Winner

Beggar the KFC McNuggets...............steak for me tonight!

Blondie

[TJP]

Record Quarter Whoop Whoop! AMCR > US$50m :)

[sharp]

Break even for a 'SaaS' is extraordinary.

Well done Pushpay.

How long before Pushpay gets bought out?

[silverblizzard888]

Three more quarters like this and its easily getting to $72 million USD and breakeven by year end.

Intrinsic value for me right now is $2.16 per share after seeing this quarters results.

Intrinsic value if they reach $72 million USD by year end $3.30 per share

[peat]

Break even for a 'SaaS' is extraordinary.

Well done Pushpay.



Not quite just yet

"breakeven on a monthly cash flowbasis prior to the end of calendar year 2017"

[iceman]

I think we have to be satisfied with these numbers although I was hoping to have 7000 users by now. But an increase of 634 for the last 3 months is good. The 2 numbers I watch the most apart from ACMR are the Average Revenue Per Customer which has increased substantially from US$ 573 to US$ 625 and the other is retention rate which still remains at or above 95%. This is good stuff and we sure look set for breakeven in the last quarter of calendar year 2017.
Happy holder :-)

sharp I think PPH will come on various radar screens once they hit US$100m annualised revenue and start printing cash. This company reminds me a lot of DIL

[Pricey]

Really, really pleased with the ARPM figures, which exceeded my expectation. More transaction volume = more merchants will sign up.

[sharp]

I think we have to be satisfied with these numbers although I was hoping to have 7000 users by now. But an increase of 634 for the last 3 months is good. The 2 numbers I watch the most apart from ACMR are the Average Revenue Per Customer which has increased substantially from US$ 573 to US$ 625 and the other is retention rate which still remains at or above 95%. This is good stuff and we sure look set for breakeven in the last quarter of calendar year 2017.
Happy holder :-)

sharp I think PPH will come on various radar screens once they hit US$100m annualised revenue and start printing cash. This company reminds me a lot of DIL

I concur with your sentiments. PPH also reminds me of DIL which also made me very happy with its performance.

Quote from Pushpay's 2016 annual report:
"As announced on 15 August 2016, Pushpay nowexpects to reach its US$72 million (NZ$100million) ACMR target prior to the end ofDecember 2017, eight months sooner thaninitially anticipated. By way of comparison, Xerogrew from NZ$10 million to NZ$100 million ofACMR in around 42 months and Pushpay nowexpects to accomplish this in less than 28 months."

"On 5 October 2016, Pushpay successfullycompleted a book build for its AU$40 million(US$31 million, using an assumed exchange rateof AUD/USD 0.76622) private placement, at theclearing price of AU$2.09 per share (NZ$2.20 pershare)"

I like where PPH is heading. Up and up.

[Beagle]

So we're all happy, onward and upward :t_up:

[winner69]

Not exactly setting the Thames on fire is it

I was lead to believe the PPH share price chart was going to look like this

Looks like it is fully (over valued) at current levels

[Beagle]

Not exactly setting the Thames on fire is it

I was lead to believe the PPH share price chart was going to look like this

Looks like it is fully (over valued) at current levels

All good mate. Like the personal trainers at the gym told me, good things take time, effort and commitment, have faith :)

[Hoop]

Really, really pleased with the ARPM figures, which exceeded my expectation. More transaction volume = more merchants will sign up.

How's your crystal ball doing;)? ..Pricey :D

[winner69]

@ChrisHeaslip: June 2014 ~$600k USD ACMR | March 2017 $50.5m ACMR | Almost 100x growth in less than 3 years!


WOW

Another 100x in 3 years = $5 billion

Go Pushpay


Suppose 84x is almost 100x Chris

[BlackPeter]

@ChrisHeaslip: June 2014 ~$600k USD ACMR | March 2017 $50.5m ACMR | Almost 100x growth in less than 3 years!


WOW

Another 100x in 3 years = $5 billion

Go Pushpay


Suppose 84x is almost 100x Chris

Why so short targets? Just extend the trendline a bit further - in 6 years it might be a $500 billion company and in just 9 years they might ramp up to $50 trillion revenue. Their growth will only stop when all the available money on earth goes through their books (which should be just after passing the 9 year milestone ;);

Discl: just kidding (re above), but the total money supply on earth is currently reported as $60T (seriously);

[Hoop]

Not exactly setting the Thames on fire is it

I was lead to believe the PPH share price chart was going to look like this

Looks like it is fully (over valued) at current levels

Hmmm yes Winner....A bit of a let down..PPH telegraphed some time ago that the news was going to be very good..The problem before todays announcement was how very good does very good have to be so not to disappoint Mr Market?..Todays announcement seems to have generated only a lukewarm response with reasonable volume....and... technically it has tested and failed it's $2 resistance Neckline and ascending triangle pattern breakout:(..

Disc: still holding

[peat]

exactly what I was thinking Hoop
no break yet, though I was wondering whether I was just being too impatient - equities take more time than forex.....??

[kizame]

Yes just calm down people,we're heading in the right direction,good things will happen to the sharprice.
This company is either going to be able to perform like DIL or get taken out sooner.

[Jinx]

Last 3 quarters they've jumped up 7.7m, 6m and 8.4m ACMR respectively. If we see anything above a 8.4m jump in ACMR regardless of how the sp moves I'll be a happy camper.

Well it wasn't quite 8.4m but I suppose 8.3m is pretty close :P

Now for some interesting math. They are currently sitting at 50.5m, they need to get to 72m before the end of the year. My guess is they average a ~8.5m increase in ACMR every 3 months (quarter) from here, this means next quarter they're at 59m, quarter after which puts us in October we're at 67.5m which gives them 2 months before the end of the calendar year to raise ACMR by 5.5m which happens to be exactly 66% 8.5 (66% because of the 2 months instead of 3 in a quarter before the end of the calendar year). So pretty much if we see anything above 9m ACMR increase in the next two updates then we will get to our 72m ACMR goal by October-ish.

The reason the sp hasn't moved is because this stock has had priced in success since the Xero team started the project. The sp should continue to rise to around $2.50-$3 before October is my guess.

[Pricey]

Just had another read - the definition changes will hugely benefit ACMR over the coming months, and exponentially at the start of next year. Rather than averaging over 12 months, it will simply be the last 3 months of volume fees. ARPM will no longer be dragged down by historical figures. Interesting that PPH no longer feel the need to "remove the seasonal effect" though, which is why it was averaged over 12 months in the first place.

Expect the SP to continue to hover around these levels until US$72m.

[silverblizzard888]

Just had another read - the definition changes will hugely benefit ACMR over the coming months, and exponentially at the start of next year. Rather than averaging over 12 months, it will simply be the last 3 months of volume fees. ARPM will no longer be dragged down by historical figures. Interesting that PPH no longer feel the need to "remove the seasonal effect" though, which is why it was averaged over 12 months in the first place.

Expect the SP to continue to hover around these levels until US$72m.

The view is once the definition changes it will be much more clearer what the present situation is since the averages are dragged down by low historical numbers. I reckon with the definition changes they will get to $72 million by the end of the September quarter, instead of $8 million increases per quarter we will be seeing $10 million or more (50.5 + 10 +12 = 72.5) . As confirmed today in the conference even if there is no definition change they will still achieve their target by year end (50.5 + 8 + 8 + 8 = 74.5).Change of definition means pushing up the quarter in which they achieve their target, changes are happening from 9 months, 6 months, then 3 months ACMR as each quarter passes.

Another interesting part about their presentation where they identify the number of churches in the US of 340,000 but 67% actually have less than 200 users and based on their report their platform is least useful and not too beneficial to these churches and rather its the big ones where the real money is made, so their possible customer number is actually 115,600 and out of that they have captured 5.55% of the market of possible customers and the rest aren't as feasible. If we consider the best customers are just the 1000+ member one's that's actually only 17,000 churches and if most of their customers are in that category already and if they are usually aiming at that list, they have already taken around 38% of possible customers, so less room to grow hence why we see not-for-profits listed as a target category.

[silverblizzard888]

Now that my brains on full blast due to early morning.

I reckon current ACMR when adjusted to 9 months next quarter would presently be $53.8 million, adjust for 6 months ACMR would be $55.55 million and adjust for 3 months would be $58 million

So forecast numbers for next coming quarters.
June - $53.8 + $8.5 = $62.3USD (89.55 NZD)
September - $55.55 + $8.8 + $8.8 = $73.15 *BINGO $72 million ACMR achieved! (105 NZD)
December - $58 + $9.2 + $9.2 +$ 9.2 = $85.6 million ACMR (123 NZD)

Share price (with adjusted ACMR)
June Intrinsic = $2.29 per share
September Intrinsic = $3.36 per share
December Intrinsic = $ 4.10per share

*Just my opinion and should not be relied upon for share purchases!

[iceman]

Thanks for good info silverblizzard888

[BlackPeter]

Just had another read - the definition changes will hugely benefit ACMR over the coming months, and exponentially at the start of next year. Rather than averaging over 12 months, it will simply be the last 3 months of volume fees. ARPM will no longer be dragged down by historical figures. Interesting that PPH no longer feel the need to "remove the seasonal effect" though, which is why it was averaged over 12 months in the first place.

Expect the SP to continue to hover around these levels until US$72m.

Anybody else sensing the smell of a seriously hyped up stock in the air?

"Normal" start up growth companies are measured in P/S ... and this is already a quite risky practice to assess their success. Many of them never see black numbers under their bottom line.

But P/S is not good enough for PPH - they didn't wanted to wait until they have the sales in their pocket (and books), so they use ACMR instead of sales ... which is basically (if all things go well) a measure for next years revenue.

And now they are changing the model to calculate ACRP (which flows into the ACMR) just based on the most recent quarter instead of the committed revenue coming in over the last 12 months. They change as well the definition every 3 months for a year (making the window every 3 months shorter) to make sure nothing will be comparable anymore. Gone are the days where boards still pulled old-fashioned wool over their shareholders heads ...

Obviously - this change in metrics will neither help them to make only one dime more nor to grow only a tiny percentage faster. It just makes the growth numbers in the short term look more spectacular, because it is now measuring every quarter something different ... and it makes sure that their growth numbers can't be compared anymore with any other company nor with historical PPH numbers.

Fishy enough?

What this change will help them is to make their growth numbers in the short term still more outrageous (even if they don't mean a lot) and help them to push up the share price (is that what the "push" in "push pay" stands for?).

Obviously this will only work as long as commitments increase month by month. Expect them to be quick to change their metrics back as soon as new commitments get softer ... though maybe they just take the cash and run ... who knows?

Not sure about you ... but I am avoiding companies which change their most important self defined metrics on the fly ...

Anyway - GLTAH!

8799

[Beagle]

To your first question NO. For a SAAS company to get to break even in a few years is a remarkable result. Your time is wasted here. If you want to talk about a seriously hyped up stock I would recommend you turn your analysis to XRO.
Look at their growth rate, how many years have they taken and they're still not at breakeven and look at their share price ! You want hyped up, refer to XRO !

[kizame]

BlackPeter I can't really understand why you keep bashing.
You can't buy puts, or sell short this stock so....

[BlackPeter]

BlackPeter I can't really understand why you keep bashing.
You can't buy puts, or sell short this stock so....

Just look at all the tears in the threads of companies who passed their hype peak already ... wouldn't it be nice we could save some people from losing their money?

The first indicators for a coming downturn in hyped up stocks are often when holders start to question any critical voices why they bother to post anything which could hurt the perception of their darling.

I guess let's face it - if you are sure that this company is a goose which will lay golden eggs ... than some cautious voices on this thread are the best thing which can happen to you. Just allows you to buy more of this great stock for cheap.

If you are however not quite sure, than it might be a good idea to reflect on critical comments ... might save your money as well.

In any case ... in which situation would a critical post be bad for you (unless you currently try to sell ... do you?)?

[Bilbo]

Anybody else sensing the smell of a seriously hyped up stock in the air?

And now they are changing the model to calculate ACRP (which flows into the ACMR) just based on the most recent quarter instead of the committed revenue coming in over the last 12 months. They change as well the definition every 3 months for a year (making the window every 3 months shorter) to make sure nothing will be comparable anymore. Gone are the days where boards still pulled old-fashioned wool over their shareholders heads ...


Hi BP. In fact they are correct in saying they have been very conservative with ACMR to date. ACMR is annualised committed monthly revenue - normally calculated by taking the last month (or current month) customer contracted revenue and multiplying by 12. This calculation is easy for the likes of XRO who have a set monthly subscription, but becomes harder for the likes of PPH where they have a subscription fee and an activity fee.

Nothing fishy about it imho. ACMR is just one way to measure SAAS companies and it helps in they all use a similar method for calculating it.

[BlackPeter]

...
Nothing fishy about it imho. ACMR is just one way to measure SAAS companies and it helps in they all use a similar method for calculating it.

So - who gains if they change the metrics to make their growth look better? How does this improve (long-term) shareholder value? How does it help shareholders to have 4 consecutive quarters with measurements every time on a different basis? What is the value of a measurement which is not comparable to anything?

[Bilbo]

So - who gains if they change the metrics to make their growth look better? How does this improve (long-term) shareholder value? How does it help shareholders to have 4 consecutive quarters with measurements every time on a different basis? What is the value of a measurement which is not comparable to anything?

The value of the change is in making their metrics comparable to other companies. But I agree it makes it difficult to compare past periods for PPH, but this is only an issue for the transitional periods. I would contend they are changing to make their growth look more accurate.

[BlackPeter]

... I would contend they are changing to make their growth look more accurate.
How does it make their growth more accurate if they change the calculation base for it 4 times in one year (or didn't you notice the time variance of the new definition?)?

If they really would have wanted to just adapt to some more appropriate metrical standard, than they would have made the change to the new method in one step (not in 4), they would have given this new metrics a different name to help everybody to understand that they are now measuring oranges instead of apples in the fruit salad and they would report for several years on both the old as well as on the new metrics to keep comparability.

[kizame]

Just look at all the tears in the threads of companies who passed their hype peak already ... wouldn't it be nice we could save some people from losing their money?

The first indicators for a coming downturn in hyped up stocks are often when holders start to question any critical voices why they bother to post anything which could hurt the perception of their darling.

I guess let's face it - if you are sure that this company is a goose which will lay golden eggs ... than some cautious voices on this thread are the best thing which can happen to you. Just allows you to buy more of this great stock for cheap.

If you are however not quite sure, than it might be a good idea to reflect on critical comments ... might save your money as well.

In any case ... in which situation would a critical post be bad for you (unless you currently try to sell ... do you?)?

No not trying or thinking of selling,critical posts are not bad for me,in fact as yours are,they might be enlightening,however it's always good to know the critical postee's agenda.
You must admit you are pedantic with your view.

[MikeE]

What's the story guys? Onwards and upwards over the next 3 months or are we waiting until June, the next update?

[Hoop]

What's the story guys? Onwards and upwards over the next 3 months or are we waiting until June, the next update?

MikeE my opinion on this and trying to ignore the hype.............This is an unfortunate too often scenario found in the NZX list of companies which has sucked in too many investors..

Re: Investor Relations:---These loss making companies play on a cyclical formula...We have been promised (installed greed) .... now and for the near future is the waiting game (installed patience and faith) before delivery (installed hope)...when patience dwindles the company suddenly announces a positive update often via newspaper (revitalises faith/patience/hope)...

PPH in its new shape (since last October chart-wise) is a bear in a volatile price trendless pause mode..Trend-less is characteristic of a patient waiting market...PPH being an illiquid stock has a high beta coefficient and is price sensitive to any rumour (revitalising investors emotions)

Logic says the next update will confirm either-way whether PPH is still on track to deliver...but logic can perform poorly in an investing world...PPH being price sensitive any media attention at any time (truth or lies) could affect the price with a sudden up or down movement in a large way (high Beta)...and..that can be a problem for the conservative investor sitting and waiting on the sidelines...With illiquid trading stocks TA disciplines can be unreliable ...so too can forward looking FA..

These types of stocks are spectulatives and using portfolio theory you use only your speculative money allowance (up to 10% of a standard portfolio**)..and dive in using either having faith or taking a punt .......I never rely on faith as faith is a delusional emotion (remember the investor maxim .."Emotion Kills") instead I'm relying on the punt:cool:.

** Why only 10% of a portfolio??..Because the odds in real life only 10% spectacularly succeed the other 90% can be portfolio killing duds)

Disc: Hold (just)..still in profit (just)

[Beagle]

MikeE - What Hoop said but I think only 5% of one's portfolio as a total should be allocated to speculative stocks. Speculative stocks in my opinion includes any company not presently making money.
Disc: Still holding, (just) and PPH represents 2.7% of the value of my listed assets.

[Hoop]

MikeE - What Hoop said but I think only 5% of one's portfolio as a total should be allocated to speculative stocks. Speculative stocks in my opinion includes any company not presently making money.
Disc: Still holding, (just) and PPH represents 2.7% of the value of my listed assets.

Sorry Roger I rewrote my post..You may not agree now......Yes I agree 5% is more sensible..depends a lot on the Investor mental make up and the type of portfolio they feel comfortable to hold...e.g heavy weighted no growth/high dividend companies held long term for adverse risk investors...to that of..short/medium term active investors aiming at growth companies / lower dividend and acceptable to some risk and agile enough to jump in or out..

[Beagle]

Sorry Roger I rewrote my post..You may not agree now......Yes I agree 5% is more sensible..depends a lot on the Investor mental make up and the type of portfolio they feel comfortable to hold...e.g heavy weighted no growth/high dividend companies held long term for adverse risk investors...to that of..short/medium term active investors aiming at growth companies / lower dividend and acceptable to some risk and agile enough to jump in or out..

No worries Hoop I still think what you've said makes good common sense. For a SAAS company their runway to potential break-even has been pretty short, sorry to be so dogmatic about it but I can't help myself comparing the length of the runway to Xero's ! XRO was trumpeted as a business champion, Rod Drury receiving business accolades and was almost seen as some sort of new business Messiah when the company had a market cap of $4,000m.
Still not at break even after what, a decade ? In that context if it takes PPH another 3-18 months after the promise of break even to achieve same, is that really so terrible ?
Yes I admit its a bit of a punt for me but a bit of faith mixed in as well :)

[Hoop]

That's what got me interested ..the promised "short" lead up time to profitability... now operating with some success within the biggest economy in the world (USA)..and...wait for it.. has been labelled as a hyper-growth company ;):p.

[BlackPeter]

That's what got me interested ..the promised "short" lead up time to profitability... now operating with some success within the biggest economy in the world (USA)..and...wait for it.. has been labelled as a hyper-growth company ;):p.

And I am sure - they will massage their metrics accordingly to maintain this perception ;) Oh wait - they started already, didn't they?

[couta1]

Bargin time aye Hoop, plenty on sale at $1.73, might get tempted again soon.(I won't blame the devil)

[Beagle]

That's what got me interested ..the promised "short" lead up time to profitability... now operating with some success within the biggest economy in the world (USA)..and...wait for it.. has been labelled as a hyper-growth company ;):p.

Faith being tested today. Hound underwater slightly now.:ohmy:

[couta1]

Faith being tested today. Hound underwater slightly now.:ohmy: Grow some big ones mate and double down.:eek2:

[percy]

Grow some big ones mate and double down.:eek2:

Oh no.!!!!!!!!!!!!!....lol.

[Baa_Baa]

The April 12 test of the 200DMA resistance, and fail was quite telling. Then closing right on the converging short and medium term up/down trendlines.

Recently PPH has behaved well from a TA perspective, it's broadcasting intent, the fall today highlights uncertainty as to whether perfection has already been priced in and is now reverting to a less risky level, possibly towards support at 1.47.

Patience for lurkers, tight stops for holders.

[Putty]

Good opportunity to buy in once it plummets to around 1.47 :t_up:

[sb9]

De-risked a lil bit last week by offloading half of my holdings, might look to top up another parcel if price gets down to ridiculous levels...

Look forward to more info next month when they announce annual results.

[kizame]

I'm not going to offload any of this stock,if you don't believe what they are achieving then fair enough,but look at the quarterly figures and the growth potential still.
growth stocks tend to have a bumpy ride,and I have made the mistake of selling down in the past (other stocks)and regretting it.

[Beagle]

Good opportunity to buy in once it plummets to around 1.47 :t_up:

Welcome to the forum and good luck with that.

Interesting as a comparison, Xero listed nearly a decade ago in June 2007 and Craigs have just announced they are starting to recommend Xero again for risk tolerant investors because they believe it will be cash flow neutral by....wait for it.... March 2019. (That's cash flow neutral, not making a profit).

If PPH can be cash flow neutral by Q4 2017 or frankly anytime in 2018 or even 2019 their performance by comparison has been absolutely stellar for a SAAS company.

Anyone noticed XRO is now over $20 ! Tax law is constantly evolving which will require constant evolution and development of their software across multiple tax jurisdictions...on the other hand we have PPH with a pathway to cash flow neutral of potentially just a few years without the need to constantly develop its software due to ongoing regular multi jurisdictional taxation and accounting changes.

[MikeE]

Some much larger than normal volumes being traded in the last week or so, especially yesterday. Some people must be seeing value at these levels.

[BlackPeter]

Some much larger than normal volumes being traded in the last week or so, especially yesterday. Some people must be seeing value at these levels.

However ... exactly the same number of people want to get rid of these shares at these levels. As well - volume is not that high if you compare it to December through to February.

I don't want to discourage you or anybody else, just be careful to avoid confirmation bias ...

[kizame]

However ... exactly the same number of people want to get rid of these shares at these levels. As well - volume is not that high if you compare it to December through to February.

I don't want to discourage you or anybody else, just be careful to avoid confirmation bias ...

Thats every sale of shares or anything,somebody wants to buy,somebody wants to get rid of...

[JoeGrogan]

Thats every sale of shares or anything,somebody wants to buy,somebody wants to get rid of...

that was his point...

Somebody is seeing value at these levels while equally somebody is not seeing value at these levels.

[sb9]

The lower NZD goes against USD, the quicker Pushpay can get to their $100ml AMR target.

Good buying interest too over the past few trading days....looking ahead to annual results on 18 May 2017.

[winner69]

Hopeless stock - been away for a couple of weeks and PPH price gone backwards when markets seem to be on a roll

Bugger .....but hope is a strategy eh

[sb9]

Hopeless stock - been away for a couple of weeks and PPH price gone backwards when markets seem to be on a roll

Bugger .....but hope is a strategy eh

Well tech stocks on NASDAQ seem to be doing quite well with their earnings, Apple to announce its earnings after market closes today.

Let's wait and see for annual results to be out in couple of weeks time for PPH and associated commentary in investor presentation.

[iceman]

Pushpay named recipient of the IBM Innovative Company of the Year Award at the 2017 NZ Hi-Tec Awards.

[JeremyALD]

Pushpay named recipient of the IBM Innovative Company of the Year Award at the 2017 NZ Hi-Tec Awards.

I was at the awards last night and the win was really well deserved. Made me think about investing in them!

[iceman]

I was at the awards last night and the win was really well deserved. Made me think about investing in them!

Would you mind expanding on that JeremyALD ? What surprised and impressed you about them ? Just curious :-)

[Beagle]

Hopeless stock - been away for a couple of weeks and PPH price gone backwards when markets seem to be on a roll

Bugger .....but hope is a strategy eh

Early days mate. Welcome back. I missed you not posting as often as when you're here.

[JeremyALD]

Would you mind expanding on that JeremyALD ? What surprised and impressed you about them ? Just curious :-)

They came across as a very passionate team and the award judges mentioned several times their ability to achieve growth and scale. They spoke very highly of the high tech sector and acknowledged Xero which I thought was a nice touch. The CEO appeared humble and focused in his presentation and I like how they've still stuck to some of their nz roots. To be honest they were only up on stage a couple of times and I've done very little research into them, but what I saw impressed me :)

[iceman]

They came across as a very passionate team and the award judges mentioned several times their ability to achieve growth and scale. They spoke very highly of the high tech sector and acknowledged Xero which I thought was a nice touch. The CEO appeared humble and focused in his presentation and I like how they've still stuck to some of their nz roots. To be honest they were only up on stage a couple of times and I've done very little research into them, but what I saw impressed me :)

Thank you for the feedback

[winner69]

I love it - not one mention of profit or loss (which doesn't matter anyway)

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/258421.pdf


Suppose this is a stunning announcement - ACMR plus 157% and all that

[winner69]

......but the market thinks otherwise

The $3.60 the personal trainer 'promised' seems a long way off

[MikeE]

I love it - not one mention of profit or loss (which doesn't matter anyway)

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/258421.pdf


Suppose this is a stunning announcement - ACMR plus 157% and all that[/QUOTE]

Agree- looks great! Why on earth has the market reacted like it has? Confused

[couta1]

......but the market thinks otherwise

The $3.60 the personal trainer 'promised' seems a long way off Just like that $7 for SUM others aye winner.

[silverblizzard888]

I love it - not one mention of profit or loss (which doesn't matter anyway)

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/258421.pdf


Suppose this is a stunning announcement - ACMR plus 157% and all that

Well they mention 'breakeven' so that sort of covers profit and loss. Pretty good performance so far.

My figures are quite inline with them that they should achieve breakeven near $72 million US cash revenue.
What has me most eager is the future profits where the run rates are trending.

$72 million US = breakeven
$75 million US = 1 million profit before tax
$130 million US = $23 million profit before tax
$200 million US = $46 million profit before tax (Xeros current territory adjusted for NZD)

Reckon $75 million cash revenue, $100 million ACMR by FY 18
Reckon $130 million cash revenue, $180 million ACMR by FY 19

*all rough estimates for my entertainment purposes and should not be relied upon your investment decisions.

[Hoop]

Sentiment rules....

[peat]

......but the market thinks otherwise


Possibly focussing on the widening loss as presented by the headline from Businessdesk

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/72c6b15c/pushpay-annual-loss-widens-as-it-invests-to-drive-us-growth.html

[hardt]

Unless it's XERO the market does not respond well to a growing loss, no matter how incredible the customer/revenue growth and despite the deficit % being halved.

There are many years ahead before we see them turn a profit, the US markets wouldn't have helped today either.

[Beagle]

On track to break even on a cash flow basis later this year. Holding for long term growth.

[sb9]

I love it - not one mention of profit or loss (which doesn't matter anyway)

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/258421.pdf


Suppose this is a stunning announcement - ACMR plus 157% and all that

Its all good winner, they seem to be trucking along as per their plan.

I think their partnering with Intuit is to be applauded, as they can access larger customer base and if things go as per plan Intuit can easily gobble them up....

Shame that overnight US markets tanked bit time.

[JeremyALD]

On track to break even on a cash flow basis later this year. Holding for long term growth.

After the tech awards I bought some today Roger :)

[iceman]

The numbers look good and all seem to be heading in the right direction. In addition to the on track spectacular growth in ACMR, the retention rate remains above 95% which indicates good customer satisfaction. As well as retaining nearly all of their current customers, they have increased numbers by just under 3,000 or 78%, including 36 (up from 24) of the top 100 largest churches.
The partnership with Intuit is an exciting opportunity and it will be interesting to watch how this progresses.

Headlines and articles like the one today in the NBR do not help the SP. It is an ill informed article in my view comparing PPH to XRO's growth opportunities, totally ignoring the fact that Xero took on an establish giant in Intuit in the USA (now partnered with PPH) whereas PPH has no such big established competitors. First mover advantage ignored by the NBR.

A happy holder and this continues to remind me of DIL in more ways than one

[Baddarcy]

The numbers look good and all seem to be heading in the right direction. In addition to the on track spectacular growth in ACMR, the retention rate remains above 95% which indicates good customer satisfaction. As well as retaining nearly all of their current customers, they have increased numbers by just under 3,000 or 78%, including 36 (up from 24) of the top 100 largest churches.
The partnership with Intuit is an exciting opportunity and it will be interesting to watch how this progresses.

Headlines and articles like the one today in the NBR do not help the SP. It is an ill informed article in my view comparing PPH to XRO's growth opportunities, totally ignoring the fact that Xero took on an establish giant in Intuit in the USA (now partnered with PPH) whereas PPH has no such big established competitors. First mover advantage ignored by the NBR.

A happy holder and this continues to remind me of DIL in more ways than one

Reminds me of DIL also for the good reasons (growth) and also the bad (expenses).

For the last couple of years DIL got to the point where expenses seemed to be rising just as fast as revenue, so while they were cash flow positive it flat lined at about +$1m-$2m per quarter on average.

I can see that PPH has had a big jump in expenses as well, i hope that this doesn't turn into a trend like it did with DIL.

Disc : Holding

[peat]

I can see that PPH has had a big jump in expenses as well, i hope that this doesn't turn into a trend like it did with DIL.

Disc : Holding



Operating expenses as a percentage of revenue has reduced from 191% to 131%

[iceman]

Agree Baddarcy that both sides of the ledger bear similarities to DIL. In the end, DIL was a great investment for many. I'm hoping PPH will do the same but am watching numbers and trends carefully

[sb9]

Missed the investor conf call y'day due to prior commitments.

Have now listed to the replay and can say that I feel very confident of their future prospects. However, having said that they do have some challenges ahead to reach market expectations and they're not coy in admitting that.

Surprised to learn that 70% of their customers are current Intuit users and hence the partnering deal with them to offer bundled solutions. No gateway fee or any other fee payable at this point to Intuit.


One thing I noted from CFOs' notes is that they're keeping tight controls around costs and maintaining gross margins as these ultimately determines their further growth.

Also, most of their additional head count is in the area of sales and marketing which is where the return lies.

All in all onwards and upwards from here, but not without some blocks ahead.

[iceman]

Well done PPH and particularly Sarah Elder and Gabrielle Wilson. I agree with the comments about their very good , clear communications https://www.anzshareandbondtrading.co.nz/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=4437473

[carrom74]

After some good results and especially with their ACMR numbers, I was expecting a good upward trend.Proved me wrong. But volumes are thin though. Interesting times...$1.66 now.

[sb9]

After some good results and especially with their ACMR numbers, I was expecting a good upward trend.Proved me wrong. But volumes are thin though. Interesting times...$1.66 now.

Yes, interesting times isn't it! I guess after WYN debacle markets are bit vary to give higher earnings multiples without seeing the results in black and white. Also the recent Orion trading situation is also not helping the sentiment.

Having said that Pushpay seem to be on right track, but we've to bide out time on this one, patience and FAITH.

[King1212]

After some good results and especially with their ACMR numbers, I was expecting a good upward trend.Proved me wrong. But volumes are thin though. Interesting times...$1.66 now.


It it has been sitting down at the average price. A lot of people want to get out...once the share rises a bit...people cut loss or sold....

remember ,,a lot investors still under the water...since ipo ASX.

i was lucky enough to sell at $2.40 ish....very tempted to get in again but again till the company make good maiden profit and cash flow..the share will just sit on that range.....

good luck...hold it..but some people do not have the patience

[winner69]

PPH is my PEB

[percy]

PPH is my PEB

We know.....................lol.

[carrom74]

Yes, interesting times isn't it! I guess after WYN debacle markets are bit vary to give higher earnings multiples without seeing the results in black and white. Also the recent Orion trading situation is also not helping the sentiment.

Having said that Pushpay seem to be on right track, but we've to bide out time on this one, patience and FAITH.

I am relatively new to this scrip and just entered.But has tracked it for a while.I watched the CEO's interview with Susan Wood on NBR.PPH has just scratched the surface of the opportunity it can leverage with the faith sector in the US and its turnover exceeds XRO YOY.

So, yes patience,faith and HOPE.....

Disc:had a painful time with WYN(unfortunately:mad ;:)

[iceman]

PPH is my PEB

And my DIL :-)

[janner]

I am relatively new to this scrip and just entered.But has tracked it for a while.I watched the CEO's interview with Susan Wood on NBR.PPH has just scratched the surface of the opportunity it can leverage with the faith sector in the US and its turnover exceeds XRO YOY.

So, yes patience,faith and HOPE.....

HOPE !!.. Was that not what Obama offered on his first election ??? ... Pass the TUI ..

FAITH !! Can work miracles they say.. Do not look on this site for miracles :-)))

PATIENCE !! Would be a better path to follow IMHO. :-))

[Hoop]

HOPE !!.. Was that not what Obama offered on his first election ??? ... Pass the TUI ..

FAITH !! Can work miracles they say.. Do not look on this site for miracles :-)))

PATIENCE !! Would be a better path to follow IMHO. :-))

The TA principle takes the emotion out of investing..why ?..because emotion kills...

All 3.. Hope Faith and Patience are classed as Virtues......

Differing degrees of Virtues makes up each individuals character and that character helps define ones destiny in life..

Hope and Faith are not strictly emotions but both virtues are closely connected to emotions, both are complimentary of each other and as such they are Investment Strategy no's no's and should be left out of all investment decision-making activities

Patience is also a virtue but it is not connected to emotion..actually patience can be a Virtue devoid of emotion...TA discipline values Patience highly as timing relies on this virtue

[sb9]

I am relatively new to this scrip and just entered.But has tracked it for a while.I watched the CEO's interview with Susan Wood on NBR.PPH has just scratched the surface of the opportunity it can leverage with the faith sector in the US and its turnover exceeds XRO YOY.

So, yes patience,faith and HOPE.....

Disc:had a painful time with WYN(unfortunately:mad ;:)

I know that feeling with WYN, feel sorry for you. WYN was my first ever biggest loss $wise and % wise, but managed to get out quite bit early and learned very valuable lesson on that one. Thankfully I was at a stage where I could only invest small amount of $ into stocks, hence the escape was easy.

[MikeE]

Boy this has been flat of late. What's the feeling guys? 12 July quarterly update going to spur some movement?

[winner69]

Boy this has been flat of late. What's the feeling guys? 12 July quarterly update going to spur some movement?

I'm beginning to think I was seduced by all the hype and foolishly bought into the miracle that was about to happen.

I'm trying to forget that I still have a bundle of these - just in case that miracle happens.

Now I know how PEB loyalists feel.

[JeremyALD]

Boy this has been flat of late. What's the feeling guys? 12 July quarterly update going to spur some movement?

Maybe a good sign that it's not bouncing around or dropping lower which has been the case for the 6 months prior. People are waiting to see some results so I'm happy to hold my small share for now. Good things take time.

[Hoop]

I'm beginning to think I was seduced by all the hype and foolishly bought into the miracle that was about to happen.

I'm trying to forget that I still have a bundle of these - just in case that miracle happens.

Now I know how PEB loyalists feel.


Hmmm..similar feeling....Its been a bit of a Beagle hasn't it

[sb9]

Boy this has been flat of late. What's the feeling guys? 12 July quarterly update going to spur some movement?

Hopefully, that along with ASM week later on 18th in Auckland should give some direction for sp over next 3 to 6 months I think.

[iceman]

I think the market is waiting to see when they will turn cashflow positive. Hopefully by year end he says with fingers crossed

[Baddarcy]

I think the market is waiting to see when they will turn cashflow positive. Hopefully by year end he says with fingers crossed

That's my thought too, as long as they meet their targets of being cashflow positive and the $USD72/$NZD100m annualised revenue before year end i think this has the potential to be a rocketship.

But if they don't then the danger is they will need to raise money which could be keeping a cap on the price, that and Tech stocks are getting a bit of a rough ride in the USA at the moment.

To be on target for the $USD72, and to continue a fairly linear growth line of about $8m growth per quarter in ACMR, they will need to report ACMR of about $USD58m.

[MikeE]

I wonder how those June numbers are looking? :cool:

[Baddarcy]

I wonder how those June numbers are looking? :cool:

Its been very quiet of late, low volume, not much price movement.

[winner69]

Its been very quiet of late, low volume, not much price movement.

You better hope I show patience and don't pack a sad an dump my lot on the market (but some of you hope I do and get a bargain)

That personal trainer was talking a load of the old proverbial eh - never was going to get to 350 and I feel for the hype. Real sucker eh

[JeremyALD]

Its been very quiet of late, low volume, not much price movement.

In some ways a good thing I guess, people aren't selling in a hurry (not buying either)

[King1212]

You better hope I show patience and don't pack a sad an dump my lot on the market (but some of you hope I do and get a bargain)

That personal trainer was talking a load of the old proverbial eh - never was going to get to 350 and I feel for the hype. Real sucker eh


Lesson To learn...dumped mine one back before oz ipo...

[winner69]

Lesson To learn...dumped mine one back before oz ipo...

Good on you mate - you not the personal trainer who told a Sharetrader about this $3.60 are you?

PPH is my PEB .....we all need one.

PEB lovers hang in their hoping they will turn their losses into huge profits ....that's what I am doing with PPH at he moment ....by some miracle they might become really profitable and the share price will rocket to 5 bucks ....but I have my doubts

[JeremyALD]

Why do you have doubts Winner? They've achieved all their forcasts and objectives so far. Only started following them recently and bought some in the last few months but from what I've seen they seem to be delivering? It's hard to point how much profit they might make it the future though so really hard to value the company (for me anyway).

[Kay]

Pushpay seem to be doing and achieving what pushpay said they would be doing and achieving...might be a different story in a weeks time...but I'm not sure what grounds there are for disappointment as yet?

[King1212]

Yes...I am the trainer but I only train young women not a bunch of oldies looking to buy shares...lol

[Beagle]

You better hope I show patience and don't pack a sad an dump my lot on the market (but some of you hope I do and get a bargain)

That personal trainer was talking a load of the old proverbial eh - never was going to get to 350 and I feel for the hype. Real sucker eh

I think I did hear him say it was by Christmas :mellow:

[sb9]

Good on you mate - you not the personal trainer who told a Sharetrader about this $3.60 are you?

PPH is my PEB .....we all need one.

PEB lovers hang in their hoping they will turn their losses into huge profits ....that's what I am doing with PPH at he moment ....by some miracle they might become really profitable and the share price will rocket to 5 bucks ....but I have my doubts

Well, we've two key events over next two weeks. Quarterly update on 12th followed by ASM on 18th. These two events should give clear idea about how they're tracking and will determine course of sp action. Let's wait and see.

[Baddarcy]

Well, we've two key events over next two weeks. Quarterly update on 12th followed by ASM on 18th. These two events should give clear idea about how they're tracking and will determine course of sp action. Let's wait and see.

The way i see it is that they have said repeatedly that they will reach revenue of $NZD100 and be cash flow positive before the end of 2017, so if they have fallen off that track then they are obligated to disclose that to the market...and they haven't so i'm expecting another positive quarterly report confirming they are on target....otherwise i would expect the NZX to start wetting the bus ticket.

Personally not to concerned by the revenue target, my main interest is the cash flow positive part, if they can get that part right then we might see some movement upwards in share price like we saw with DIL. If they don't then they will need to raise some more cash, typically the 'we missed out target and have run out of money line' doesn't go down well...OHE anyone?

[dodgy]

The way i see it is that they have said repeatedly that they will reach revenue of $NZD100 and be cash flow positive before the end of 2017, so if they have fallen off that track then they are obligated to disclose that to the market...and they haven't so i'm expecting another positive quarterly report confirming they are on target....otherwise i would expect the NZX to start wetting the bus ticket.

Personally not to concerned by the revenue target, my main interest is the cash flow positive part, if they can get that part right then we might see some movement upwards in share price like we saw with DIL. If they don't then they will need to raise some more cash, typically the 'we missed out target and have run out of money line' doesn't go down well...OHE anyone?

Hi guys (and gals)
I am currently travelling through the US bible belt, ie New Mexico, Texas, to Kentucky. This trip has taken two months. I have observed the following.
1. The population is mainly baptist .
2. Without exception everybody I have met are staunch people who tithe regularly.
3. Technology is easily accessible for most
4. And the biggest challenge servicing the huge number of smaller congregations scattered throughout.
But
Properly accessed and harvested this will be a substantial opportunity.
I am holding with renewed expectation.
Regards
-dodgy
PS Ultra humid and about 30c down to 25 at night - yuk.

[kizame]

Hi guys (and gals)
I am currently travelling through the US bible belt, ie New Mexico, Texas, to Kentucky. This trip has taken two months. I have observed the following.
1. The population is mainly baptist .
2. Without exception everybody I have met are staunch people who tithe regularly.
3. Technology is easily accessible for most
4. And the biggest challenge servicing the huge number of smaller congregations scattered throughout.
But
Properly accessed and harvested this will be a substantial opportunity.
I am holding with renewed expectation.
Regards
-dodgy
PS Ultra humid and about 30c down to 25 at night - yuk.

Yep number 4 is something i have mulled over a bit,it's great to get the big churches but that leaves an aweful lot of single entity churches that are going to take a power of a lot of sales miles to gather in.
But I have great expectations.

[muppet]

Bigger volumes today. What do people know I wonder........

[King1212]

Update on Wednesday...good luck guys! Hope the result is outstanding.....

Voted the best company to work for recently

http://www.seattlebusinessmag.com/workplace/100-best-companies-work-2017


disc:ex holder....

[King1212]

So tempted to get in this evening at the end of auction. Well...Too late now......let see the update tomorrow. Whether the personal trainer is right or not eh winner?

[winner69]

Hope ARPC has grown heaps - that's the key driver of increasing ACMR and ultimately revenue

[winner69]

It'll be good news for sure .....

......and share price will shoot up over $2

[winner69]

One thing - for most here no matter what it will be good news. Nothing seems to disappoint you guys.

But I'm under water - hope that personal trainer wasn't just hyping things up for personal gain.

[King1212]

One thing - for most here no matter what it will be good news. Nothing seems to disappoint you guys.

But I'm under water - hope that personal trainer wasn't just hyping things up for personal gain.


U must be sucked up by her two big Charlie :D

will get get there eventually if the number shows up good today...

[sb9]

One thing - for most here no matter what it will be good news. Nothing seems to disappoint you guys.

But I'm under water - hope that personal trainer wasn't just hyping things up for personal gain.

I'm under water too in this one, in fact only one in my portfolio that's in red. Was tempted to get more over last few days, but thought its better to wait and see.

[winner69]

I'm under water too in this one, in fact only one in my portfolio that's in red. Was tempted to get more over last few days, but thought its better to wait and see.

Not out yet....are they usually this slack?

Model all up and running to put the new numbers in ......and rerun the calculations to see what future growth is required to warrant a market cap of more than 1/2 billion.

[sb9]

Not out yet....are they usually this slack?

Model all up and running to put the new numbers in ......and rerun the calculations to see what future growth is required to warrant a market cap of more than 1/2 billion.

Well, the conf call is scheduled for 11am and notification earlier says that numbers would be released to NZX before that. Should be anytime from now I say....

[King1212]

Not out yet....are they usually this slack?

Model all up and running to put the new numbers in ......and rerun the calculations to see what future growth is required to warrant a market cap of more than 1/2 billion.


U are so inpatient....:D

[Baddarcy]

U are so inpatient....:D

Guilty as charged......thou in my defense i would like to have a chance to read it before the market opens

[King1212]

Guilty as charged......thou in my defense i would like to have a chance to read it before the market opens

OMG..so many holders waiting for the result...should got in yesterday auction....well...must be a good result....

[kerryo]

Announcement out now.

US$25m placement to accelerate growth, ACMR target increased to US$100m by FY18
Auckland, New Zealand | Redmond, Washington, USA – 12 July 2017

Pushpay Holdings Limited (NZSX:PPH, ASX:PPH) has released the Announcement 'US$25m placement to accelerate growth, ACMR target increased to US$100m by FY18' to the NZX and ASX.

[iceman]

Announcement out now.

US$25m placement to accelerate growth, ACMR target increased to US$100m by FY18
Auckland, New Zealand | Redmond, Washington, USA – 12 July 2017

Pushpay Holdings Limited (NZSX:PPH, ASX:PPH) has released the Announcement 'US$25m placement to accelerate growth, ACMR target increased to US$100m by FY18' to the NZX and ASX.

So basically the earlier forecasts had a spelling mistake. Target of $100m was USD not NZD like we thought. Damn. Winner your guy will be annoyed

[suse]

I just speed read that and admittedly I dont understand much about it all, but on the surface it looks good. The US listing is interesting?? I popped a few thousand into this share a few months ago and watched it drop steadily so I'd like to see it head upwards again, but I've learnt over time that sometimes what I think looks like good news isnt and the market reacts accordingly :)

[King1212]

Bloody good result....well done guys...

[JeremyALD]

Is it a good result though? They've moved break even out a whole year and growth has slowed in the last quarter. I'm a bit nervous.

[King1212]

Is it a good result though? They've moved break even out a whole year and growth has slowed in the last quarter. I'm a bit nervous.


Where has grow slow? It is more than $62m