PPH - PushPay (Church/donor software.)

[Jinx]

anyone able to get below paid content?

http://www.nbr.co.nz/subscribe/192130

Useful extracts from behind the paywall (Thanks HeartofGold!!)

Graham Shaw: “I think it’s good for a director, who’s come in part way through the journey, to invest as a show of confidence. That aside, I anticipate there to be a return from it as well,”
He sold some Xero stock to purchase PAY and also compared the two businesses "“Over time, the same thing will happen with Pushpay but it’s just earlier in the journey,”

“I’ll call it a young company because the founders are relatively young, full of energy, eager to learn and work really hard. I think they’ve done the right thing by moving to the United States, which is the primary market focus and secondly to remain focused on a particular vertical, in this case the faith sector, which is a growing market.”
He says Pushpay has only scratched the surface of the US faith sector, having only 1% of churches in the US.

Another interesting piece of information from the article: Almost 70% of Pushpay is held by five main investors – Chris Heaslip, Eliot Crowther, Doug Kemsley, the Bhatnagar family, and NBR Rich Listers the Huljich family – according to its annual report.

[King1212]

Thanks jinx

[kiora]

Useful extracts from behind the paywall (Thanks HeartofGold!!)

Graham Shaw: “I think it’s good for a director, who’s come in part way through the journey, to invest as a show of confidence. That aside, I anticipate there to be a return from it as well,”
He sold some Xero stock to purchase PAY and also compared the two businesses "“Over time, the same thing will happen with Pushpay but it’s just earlier in the journey,”

“I’ll call it a young company because the founders are relatively young, full of energy, eager to learn and work really hard. I think they’ve done the right thing by moving to the United States, which is the primary market focus and secondly to remain focused on a particular vertical, in this case the faith sector, which is a growing market.”
He says Pushpay has only scratched the surface of the US faith sector, having only 1% of churches in the US.

Another interesting piece of information from the article: Almost 70% of Pushpay is held by five main investors – Chris Heaslip, Eliot Crowther, Doug Kemsley, the Bhatnagar family, and NBR Rich Listers the Huljich family – according to its annual report.

Yes I like it too.Tightly held!
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11683348

[HeartOfGold]

Nice little update on the NZX this morning:
https://www.nzx.com/companies/PAY/announcements/287221

[kiora]

Nice little update on the NZX this morning:
https://www.nzx.com/companies/PAY/announcements/287221

Little?:) Onwards & upwards

[Yoda]

Seems to be all the MAs are lining above each other now, maybe this is the beginning of a run up.
Aug 2015 started a run from $1 to $2 . Here,s hoping :p

[King1212]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PAY/announcements/287520

seems like a lot of diluted shares....I sold out yesterday...took the profit. Looking to get in after US president election. As Pay has 100% operation in the USA,,,very uncertain at the moment.

[Jinx]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PAY/announcements/287520

seems like a lot of diluted shares....I sold out yesterday...took the profit. Looking to get in after US president election. As Pay has 100% operation in the USA,,,very uncertain at the moment.

How would the US election effect PAY? I'd argue as we see elections get closer people become more likely to donate money (to presidential campaigns or churches)

[King1212]

Election always creates uncertainty. yes agree with you..but recent article on CNBC stated USA stocks are overpriced and due for a correction. If USA sneezes...we all have a cold....

[Leftfield]

Nice new appointment. Read the full release - he seems to have done very well for XRO in the past. Be interesting to see what he achieves with PAY



Pushpay Holdings Limited (NZSX:PAY) ('Pushpay' or 'the Company') announces


that James Maiocco has joined Pushpay from Xero, where he served as General


Manager of Business and Corporate Development. James has been appointed as


Pushpay's Chief Business Development Officer, effective tomorrow, 1 September


2016 and will be focusing on Partnerships and Business Development. James


will report to Chris Heaslip, Pushpay's Chief Executive and will be based out


of Pushpay's Redmond, Washington, USA office.

[Jinx]

https://www.anzshareandbondtrading.co.nz/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=4240716

Pushpay to be listed on the ASX in a months time. Certainly good news from my perspective.


If USA sneezes...we all have a cold....

When Hillary gets voted in Wall Street will love it, can't see stocks taking a hit based on the election considering someone who's been knee deep in backhanded wall street dealings since day one gets voted in!

[Whitebeard]

Article here shows how big the market is for PAY in the faith sector..

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/84296190/religion-contributes-more-to-the-us-economy-than-many-giant-corporations

[DJMustard]

Trade halt?

https://nzx.com/companies/PAY/announcements/290156

[iceman]

Trade halt?

https://nzx.com/companies/PAY/announcements/290156

Book build for 2 days. The interesting part of the announcement is that all major SH and Directors have undertaken not to sell any shares until after the FY17 announcement. That is great confidence for the rest of us

[DJMustard]

Forgive my ignorance, but are they planning to issue more shares? What is the reason for a book build?

[iceman]

Forgive my ignorance, but are they planning to issue more shares? What is the reason for a book build?

https://www.nzx.com/companies/PAY/announcements/288827

[King1212]

I got my cash ready to get in back.....with current market uncertainty n book build up..hopefully can get it cheaper than current sp...

[King1212]

Book build completed at $2.20 per share...I think the current sp will drift back to around that price or even lower? Any thoughts?

[Leftfield]

Book build completed at $2.20 per share...I think the current sp will drift back to around that price or even lower? Any thoughts?

I had hoped it would be higher....however nice to see Huljich upping his holdings at this price so a SP drift down could be a good opportunity.

Pushpay directors and their associated interests did not sell any shares in this process. However, interests associated with Pushpay director, Christopher Huljich, have participated in the book build to subscribe for 478,468 additional shares in Pushpay at the clearing price.

[King1212]

Checked the depth...was not looking good....

i guess he just scooped the left over shares?

[iceman]

I had hoped it would be higher....however nice to see Huljich upping his holdings at this price so a SP drift down could be a good opportunity.

Pushpay directors and their associated interests did not sell any shares in this process. However, interests associated with Pushpay director, Christopher Huljich, have participated in the book build to subscribe for 478,468 additional shares in Pushpay at the clearing price.

Yes Huljich and other major SH are showing a lot of confidence in PAY and have reiterated a break even be FY17. By then possibly closing in on NZD 100m in turnover which is quite astonishing. I think any drift down in SP will see me topping up a bit more of this exciting and fast growing company in a very large niche market

[King1212]

Yes Huljich and other major SH are showing a lot of confidence in PAY and have reiterated a break even be FY17. By then possibly closing in on USD 100m in turnover which is quite astonishing. I think any drift down in SP will see me topping up a bit more of this exciting and fast growing company in a very large niche market

:eek2: Down like crazy!

[King1212]

I think I will wait till the dust clear up before get back in...the sp looks very unstable..,,

[TFA]

It was surprising and disappointing the book build price wasn't higher. Have used this as an opportunity to top up as next quarterly figures will be out next week and the pattern seems to be each time they report they over deliver which sparks a rally, followed by a period of softness and consolidation. Given the ASX listing and new investors on board, I feel this could run ahead at any time. If you follow the quarterly trend, the $100m ACR target should be comfortably reached before the new target. Go another year out i.e 2 years from now we could be looking at ACR $200m+ and very attractive underlying profit and that's probably without taking into account any upside in the utility market which they clearly see as another big opportunity.

[King1212]

It was surprising and disappointing the book build price wasn't higher. Have used this as an opportunity to top up as next quarterly figures will be out next week and the pattern seems to be each time they report they over deliver which sparks a rally, followed by a period of softness and consolidation. Given the ASX listing and new investors on board, I feel this could run ahead at any time. If you follow the quarterly trend, the $100m ACR target should be comfortably reached before the new target. Go another year out i.e 2 years from now we could be looking at ACR $200m+ and very attractive underlying profit and that's probably without taking into account any upside in the utility market which they clearly see as another big opportunity.

i would wait till ASX listing competed.

[Leftfield]

Going to be interesting when PAY becomes PPH and lists on ASX tomorrow.....

"Pushpay Holdings Limited (NZSX:PAY) (‘Pushpay’ or ‘the Company’) is proud to now process over US$1 billion in Annualised Monthly Payment Transaction Volume.

Since May 2016, Pushpay has increased its Annualised Monthly Payment Transaction Volume by US$281 million to over US$1 billion, an increase of 39.1% over four months.

Reaching US$1 billion in Annualised Monthly Payment Transaction Volume is a significant milestone for the Company and Pushpay expects Annualised Monthly Payment Transaction Volume to continue to grow at a rapid pace as it executes on its USA growth strategy. "

[Jinx]

Going to be interesting when PAY becomes PPH and lists on ASX tomorrow.....

"Pushpay Holdings Limited (NZSX:PAY) (‘Pushpay’ or ‘the Company’) is proud to now process over US$1 billion in Annualised Monthly Payment Transaction Volume.

Since May 2016, Pushpay has increased its Annualised Monthly Payment Transaction Volume by US$281 million to over US$1 billion, an increase of 39.1% over four months.

Reaching US$1 billion in Annualised Monthly Payment Transaction Volume is a significant milestone for the Company and Pushpay expects Annualised Monthly Payment Transaction Volume to continue to grow at a rapid pace as it executes on its USA growth strategy. "

A big day today/tomorrow with a 40% increase in four months it looks like PAY will continue its growth as well as a ASX listing. sp doesn't seem to care about the news but it all stacks up to look like a great buy!

[BlackPeter]

Well - yes, a company writing losses and half a billion dollars market cap. What does this remind me of? XRO? WYN? OHE? PEB? Some may win, more will lose.

Sure - it might become a roaring success, but than, it might as well fade away ... together with the money people invested into it. At this stage I'd consider them as pure speculation.

[Jinx]

Well - yes, a company writing losses and half a billion dollars market cap. What does this remind me of? XRO? WYN? OHE? PEB? Some may win, more will lose.

Sure - it might become a roaring success, but than, it might as well fade away ... together with the money people invested into it. At this stage I'd consider them as pure speculation.

Luckily PAY (or PPH tomorrow) has many of the people behind XRO instead of those behind WYN ;)
The directors saw a market and have seen rapid growth in their product. Happy to ride this one out

[TFA]

Well - yes, a company writing losses and half a billion dollars market cap. What does this remind me of? XRO? WYN? OHE? PEB? Some may win, more will lose.

Sure - it might become a roaring success, but than, it might as well fade away ... together with the money people invested into it. At this stage I'd consider them as pure speculation.
It might be a roaring success???? They've just increased their ACMR by 39% for the quarter which means their annual growth will be around 300% in the last 12 months. And it's not like the massive percentage gains are off small numbers.. as ACMR will have increased by around $15m to $55m.
The ACMR model requires sales investment up front, with a long tail of recurring revenue for years to come. Hard to report profits when you are growing so fast, but if you look through the numbers and imagine what the reported bottom line would be if the marketing investment was capitalised over the life of the revenue stream you may see this speculative company differently.

[Snow Leopard]

...They've just increased their ACMR by 39% for the quarter...

Have they?

They have increased their Annualised Monthly Payment Transaction Volume by 39% over 4 months according to the announcement (https://nzx.com/files/attachments/245624.pdf).

The target would appear to be double ACMR within the next 14 months, and stop bleeding cash in the same time frame.

But as of the here and the now it has a market cap of NZ$560M+ and a probable ACMR of NZ$50M ?.

Is that a realistic ratio?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[TFA]

Have they?

They have increased their Annualised Monthly Payment Transaction Volume by 39% over 4 months according to the announcement (https://nzx.com/files/attachments/245624.pdf).

The target would appear to be double ACMR within the next 14 months, and stop bleeding cash in the same time frame.

But as of the here and the now it has a market cap of NZ$560M+ and a probable ACMR of NZ$50M ?.

Is that a realistic ratio?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

I agree it's not easy to determine value, but don't agree that applying historical multiples is particularly relevant when you are experiencing revenue growth of 300% pa.

[iceman]

I agree it's not easy to determine value, but don't agree that applying historical multiples is particularly relevant when you are experiencing revenue growth of 300% pa.

The problem I have with this stock is that contrary to what you say, an increase in volume does not necessarily translate proportionally to increase in revenue. It is all about how much PAY (PPH) can clip the ticket of these transactions and whether they can turn a profit. I took a big and rewarding punt on DIL but never liked Xero. This one is more like Xero. Having said that, I did put some of my DIL funds into this one BUT as pure speculation, mainly because I have faith in some of the bigger shareholders making good decisions. I will enjoy the ride.

[Jinx]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/245695.pdf

More exceeding of guidance. Today is a rough day to release good figured and to list on the ASX with markets down globally but I still see this as more fantastic news on a long trail of over-achievement.

PT: I know you worry about a large market cap on a stock that isn't profitable yet. But when considering almost exactly one year ago the stock had a SP of $2 and since then we've seen a AMCR growth of 300% as well as over double as many merchants using pushpay it does seem like if the stock is overvalued now it was HUGELY overvalued then. It'll be interesting to see if PPH can maintain its guidance over the next year to come, if it can then $2 is a steal.

Will be listening to the phone conference and posting any relevant info :)

[iceman]

Finally got around to reading the announcement. Agree Jinx this is a great achievement. Huge 151% annual growth on already reasonable numbers and last 3 months have been outstanding. The biggie in my view is that they are turning this growth into a large growth in revenue with average revenue per merchant (ARPM) up 47% to USD 534 per month. Another potential biggie is they company diversifying outside of the faith sector after their successful trial with Watercare.

Discl: Holding and accumulating

[King1212]

Can someone plz explain...why people are selling below $2.09 aud..as PPH just listed on ASX...a lot of selling...

[sb9]

Can someone plz explain...why people are selling below $2.09 aud..as PPH just listed on ASX...a lot of selling...

I would say short term profit taking coupled with overall market sentiment.

Disc: dipped in my toes on this one, like their story backed by good management and board.

[King1212]

I would say short term profit taking coupled with overall market sentiment.

Disc: dipped in my toes on this one, like their story backed by good management and board.

How profit taking...raising fund at $2.09 aud then sell at around $2? That is loss...

[sb9]

How profit taking...raising fund at $2.09 aud then sell at around $2? That is loss...

Not necessarily by the same fund, those that got in earlier at lower prices...

[Snow Leopard]

I agree it's not easy to determine value, but don't agree that applying historical multiples is particularly relevant when you are experiencing revenue growth of 300% pa.

Whomever you are not agreeing with it is not me!

I did suggest two current figures (one of which was a little optimistic it appeared) and the company itself is 'only' setting an approx 100% PA over the next year.

And then where from there?


Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Title: Robert Burns, "To A Mouse"

[TFA]

To get to the $100m target Dec17, they need to grow at around the same $ACMR increase as the last quarter which would mean percentage growth of less than 100% as you have pointed out. This to me seems conservative but nevertheless sensible in terms of not over promising and potentially under-delivering.
Historically the rate of dollar growth has increased and now that they have more capital at their disposal it could be expected that this may accelerate further.

The only longer term number that has been mentioned was about having a goal of merchant transactions of $10b which would be around 10x current business levels - therefore from this the implication is that their longer term revenue is $500m

[sb9]

The only longer term number that has been mentioned was about having a goal of merchant transactions of $10b which would be around 10x current business levels - therefore from this the implication is that their longer term

And that $10b is only 10% of total current faith market size (US) of $119b from Chris's presentation y'day. Meaning potential to grow is rather huge....

[Zaphod]

The market is large, but what is to stop Google Pay, Apple Pay, Samsung Pay, Visa Pay, or just plain on Paywave from taking the faith market by storm?

[Jinx]

The market is large, but what is to stop Google Pay, Apple Pay, Samsung Pay, Visa Pay, or just plain on Paywave from taking the faith market by storm?

Not to be offensive but those in the US faith sector usually aren't that keen on change. Plus I imagen pushpay have a good understanding of the marketplace compared to Apple or Google.

[Leftfield]

The market is large, but what is to stop Google Pay, Apple Pay, Samsung Pay, Visa Pay, or just plain on Paywave from taking the faith market by storm?

I think Samsung may have other priorities at the moment! ;-)

[BlackPeter]

I think Samsung may have other priorities at the moment! ;-)

well, yes - on the other hand: strong support by the faith industry might help :p?

[blobbles]

Push pay fair getting smashed, 2 days after the Aussie listing. Looks like the listing wasn't good for them at all!

[King1212]

Lord...saves the poor souls! High selling...put orders on yesterday twice but cancelled it...lucky! Anyone could predict the button?

[blobbles]

Growth rate is massive and still a lot to go before coming anywhere near ceiling, lots to like about their prospects. September numbers were great so good momentum continuing. Lots of scope to succeed outside of their current faith market too, albeit with a bit more competition. Grabbing just a small slice though would be massive.

[Zaphod]

Not to be offensive but those in the US faith sector usually aren't that keen on change. Plus I imagen pushpay have a good understanding of the marketplace compared to Apple or Google.

IMO if Pushpay can effectively penetrate the lucrative "faith sector" (and potentially the charity sector which is their secondary market) then they will have an incumbent advantage, however my point is that their application doesn't offer anything over and above what larger competitors who are gaining market share at a faster rate.

One significant disadvantage is that it's yet another separate service, in a country that is rapidly embracing contactless and online payment through the major third party providers (Apple, Google, Samsung) and to a lesser extent the payment networks directly such as Visa and MasterCard. Card issuers in the USA have not embraced creating their own systems as they have in NZ, with issuers such as BOA opting to use Android Pay.

Disc: Holder, Currently managing an online payment integration project

[King1212]

look like the SP has settled...will we see investors come back in? I looked at ASX yesterday...shares being bought quite a bit...

[Thor]

The buy depth is very weak still. I wouldn't be surprised to see this continue to slide more, especially considering the general market sentiment. A lot of early holders have made a large return and are probably taking profits. The cap raise and ASX listing sure smashed the SP - down 25% within 2 weeks.

[King1212]

The buy depth is very weak still. I wouldn't be surprised to see this continue to slide more, especially considering the general market sentiment. A lot of early holders have made a large return and are probably taking profits. The cap raise and ASX listing sure smashed the SP - down 25% within 2 weeks.

when u look at top 20 holders...almost 73%...surely they are not letting the profit bother that...in saying that..the potential of the ACRM is huge...


http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20161011/pdf/43bwstbkz0pym7.pdf

[Thor]

It will be the small retail holders - volume is low. I agree the potential is large, and therefore if you have a long term time horizon, then this is just a bump. Also we have the CEO committing $1M @ 2.20 and a Director buying $1.8M @ $2.23 earlier in the year. They have proven their success in this US faith market, and each quarter is growing faster than previous, and the latest guidance re-enforced this yet again. They continue to outperform. I consider this drop a buying opportunity.

Disc: Holder

[King1212]

interesting articles

http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/2015/0616/Charitable-giving-sets-new-record-but-why-are-religious-donations-waning

http://www.christiantoday.com/article/american.churches.receive.record.114.9.b.donations .in.2014.report/57240.htm

[sb9]

Buyer on both ASX and NZX at 185, dual listing working fine, yeah right....

[Entrep]

NZD$1.76 on NZX, AUD$1.58 on ASX.... ??????

[King1212]

http://www.concentrate.co.nz/pushing-focus/

[Entrep]

Down to $1.55 now... where is the bottom? Whole market looks very dicey at the moment.

[sb9]

Down to $1.55 now... where is the bottom? Whole market looks very dicey at the moment.

Bit perplexed to be honest around level of selling at each price point. Not sure if its one or two sellers who keep offering volume on sell side.

Also, bit surprised not to see a lil love note from our dear NZX regulators asking the usual question "is all okay??"

[King1212]

Time to buy in:t_up:

[sb9]

Time to buy in:t_up:

Can you shed bit more light pls...

[Jinx]

Maybe I can shed some light, I'm currently super bullish on pph. Although trump winning has plenty of negatives I'm willing to bet donations to churches and other institutions will go up heavily with all this uncertainty. All helping pushpays amcr increase.

[King1212]

No need to shed the light. I always believe the future of this company. A lot Americans are religiously faith. The reason I sold was capital raising n election. Now, all done n dusted. ACRM as end sep was $34m. Interim result is coming soon...From now on the sp will head north...DYOR....good luck all the holders...next year 2017 will be interesting year for PPH...

[sb9]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/86476670/deloitte-fast-50-pushpay-nzs-fastest-growing-company

Bring on interim results next week...

[King1212]

Interim due tmw ...good luck everyone. May god blesses us with prosperity and higher sp:t_up:

[King1212]

https://www.anzshareandbondtrading.co.nz/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=4305192

excellent growth!!!

[Leftfield]

Highlights FYI

"Pushpay has increased its leading metric, Annualised Committed Monthly Revenue (ACMR), by US$25.0 million over the 12 months to 30 September 2016 from US$8.9 million to US$33.9 million, an increase of 282%.

Operating revenue increased by US$9.0 million from US$2.9 million for the six months ended 30 September 2015 to US$12.0 million for the six months ended 30 September 2016, an increase of 308%.

Pushpay’s net loss increased by US$7.1 million from US$4.2 million for the six months ended 30 September 2015 to US$11.3 million for the six months ended 30 September 2016, an increase of 169% as Pushpay continues to invest in scaling its business.

Over the year to 30 September 2016, Pushpay has remained focused on gaining market share in the USA faith sector, whilst maintaining best-in-class SaaS metrics and continuing to invest in our people, product and processes. We are proud to now serve over 5,000 churches in the USA including 30 of the top 100 and process over US$1 billion in Annualised Monthly Payment Transaction Volume.

As announced on 15 August 2016, Pushpay now expects to reach its US$72 million (NZ$100 million) ACMR target prior to the end of December 2017, eight months sooner than initially anticipated. By way of comparison, Xero grew from NZ$10 million to NZ$100 million of ACMR in around 42 months and Pushpay now expects to accomplish this in less than 28 months.

In addition, Pushpay remains on track to reach breakeven on a monthly cash flow basis prior to the end of calendar year 2017."

Couldn't help wondering why 2015 FY accounts still unaudited?

[Leftfield]

Almost missed this.....

Pushpay Holdings Limited (NZSX:PPH, ASX:PPH, ‘Pushpay’ or ‘the Company’) announces that it has entered into an agreement to acquire a church app business from Bluebridge Digital, Inc (Bluebridge) for the consideration of up to US$3.1 million.
Key highlights
- Pushpay Holdings Limited is to acquire a church app business from Bluebridge Digital, Inc for up to US$3.1 million
- The transaction remains subject to a number of customary conditions and adjustments. It is anticipated that, subject to satisfaction of these conditions, the acquisition will be completed on or by the end of November 2016
- Bluebridge is one of the leading providers of church apps in the world
- This acquisition is fully cash funded from the proceeds of Pushpay’s AU$40 million private placement in October 2016
- Pushpay continues to perform well and remains on track to reach US$72 million (NZ$100 million) in Annualised Committed Monthly Revenue and breakeven on a monthly cash flow basis prior to the end of calendar 2017
Pushpay is acquiring Bluebridge’s church app related business which includes over 200 customers and around US$1 million in ACMR.

[TFA]

LF - result are only for the half year so won't be audited

The Bluebridge transaction is the most exciting part. Will strengthen there position (with customers and against any future competition) and also accelerate their growth.

Also encourage by their commment that the quarterly rate of ACMR increase will be ahead of the last quarter....translation, don't be surpised if they hit the $100m ACMR sooner than their target

[King1212]

PPH is a keeper...very happy with the result!

[Meister]

Subdued market reaction to this and the last announcement. Both very positive in my opinion, but did the stock get too far ahead of itself?

[King1212]

Subdued market reaction to this and the last announcement. Both very positive in my opinion, but did the stock get too far ahead of itself?

time will tell...

[blobbles]

Way ahead of itself IMO. 450m market cap... should be around 300m max I would have thought given its low starting point for its growth rates. Big oppourtunity though so can understand why its higher. But be wary ANY bad news I would expect the SP to drop sharply. I can imagine Trumps big supporters (the evangelicals) jumping on to the protectionist bandwagon pretty quickly. In which case any overseas companies (to America) may experience a backlash... the last thing PPH would want is a couple of congregation leaders to start talking about the evils of overseas corporations and then come across PPH and hold them up as an example that has "infiltrated their church". Probably won't happen, but something like this may torpedo them.

A lot of expected growth already built in otherwise. But they don't seem to miss targets, if history is an indicator they keep exceeding them.

[TFA]

Way ahead of itself IMO. 450m market cap... should be around 300m max I would have thought given its low starting point for its growth rates. Big oppourtunity though so can understand why its higher. But be wary ANY bad news I would expect the SP to drop sharply. I can imagine Trumps big supporters (the evangelicals) jumping on to the protectionist bandwagon pretty quickly. In which case any overseas companies (to America) may experience a backlash... the last thing PPH would want is a couple of congregation leaders to start talking about the evils of overseas corporations and then come across PPH and hold them up as an example that has "infiltrated their church". Probably won't happen, but something like this may torpedo them.

A lot of expected growth already built in otherwise. But they don't seem to miss targets, if history is an indicator they keep exceeding them.

Personally I feel that it is undervalued, but that's what makes the market I guess. My reasons are that in just over 12 months time they will be generating over $100m ACMR and cash flow breakeven...everything points to this being achieved. We don't know the exact operating costs and margins etc, however we know that large costs are in sales for which there is a long trailing revenue and low variable costs given saas model. The higher the growth, the more the reported result at a point in time looks worse than it really is. If you consider some of the sales costs are investment the "Underlying" profitability at $100m ACMR may well be significant. Start applying a PE ratios on forward earning or even better PEG ratio on a business growing at say 100-200% by Dec 2017 (rather than 300% now) then it should look very enticing.

[Leftfield]

Personally I feel that it is undervalued, but that's what makes the market I guess. My reasons are that in just over 12 months time they will be generating over $100m ACMR and cash flow breakeven...

Tend to agree with you TFA and thanks for yr thoughts above re audited accounts.

Suspect the market has difficulty understanding PPH/PAY. Todays muted reaction well below the recent cash raise at $2.20 (if I recall right) so a few people hurting (incl directors.)

[Snow Leopard]

Personally I feel that it is undervalued, but that's what makes the market I guess. My reasons are that in just over 12 months time they will be generating over $100m ACMR and cash flow breakeven...

I can show you a perfectly reasonable growth 'curve' derived from the numbers in the interim report that says they will hit $100M ACMR in 2Q 19 ( two years time) [Deleted :eek2:: H2 FY20 ( three and one half years time)] .
I can come up with some variations of that that vary from a 'little better' to 'quite a bit better' (both widely recognised accounting terms).

So "in just over 12 months time they will be generating" is perhaps a little too definite statement of the future.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[King1212]

I can show you a perfectly reasonable growth 'curve' derived from the numbers in the interim report that says they will hit $100M ACMR in 2Q 19 ( two years time) [Deleted :eek2:: H2 FY20 ( three and one half years time)] .
I can come up with some variations of that that vary from a 'little better' to 'quite a bit better' (both widely recognised accounting terms).

So "in just over 12 months time they will be generating" is perhaps a little too definite statement of the future.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

like usual..don't know what u talking about...:confused:

[blobbles]

Personally I feel that it is undervalued, but that's what makes the market I guess. My reasons are that in just over 12 months time they will be generating over $100m ACMR and cash flow breakeven...everything points to this being achieved. We don't know the exact operating costs and margins etc, however we know that large costs are in sales for which there is a long trailing revenue and low variable costs given saas model. The higher the growth, the more the reported result at a point in time looks worse than it really is. If you consider some of the sales costs are investment the "Underlying" profitability at $100m ACMR may well be significant. Start applying a PE ratios on forward earning or even better PEG ratio on a business growing at say 100-200% by Dec 2017 (rather than 300% now) then it should look very enticing.


Which is fine, but my advice is don't count your chickens until they hatch. Everything is going swimmingly and the market has priced in that growth for 12 months. My point is that every business has bumps in the road and bumps can be big or small. One big bump and PPH could be in trouble and the SP tanking.

[King1212]

Which is fine, but my advice is don't count your chickens until they hatch. Everything is going swimmingly and the market has priced in that growth for 12 months. My point is that every business has bumps in the road and bumps can be big or small. One big bump and PPH could be in trouble and the SP tanking.

all companies are forecasting thier revenue and profit anyway...nothing is certain in the share market....term deposit is certain...lock in the interest then get paid when it matures..

[blobbles]

all companies are forecasting thier revenue and profit anyway...nothing is certain in the share market....term deposit is certain...lock in the interest then get paid when it matures..

Yes,but with internet companies with single products in single markets growth can be very lumpy. They are high risk and have the next years growth (if not more) priced in. Don't bet your house on it, is all I am saying and be aware of risks through rose tinted lenses!

This time last year a lot of people were predicting WYN to be the next big success story and they had major league US investors eyeing them up to take a large share of the company to keep accelerating their growth. Less than a year later they are gone and have left a LOT of pissed off investors.

[King1212]

Yes,but with internet companies with single products in single markets growth can be very lumpy. They are high risk and have the next years growth (if not more) priced in. Don't bet your house on it, is all I am saying and be aware of risks through rose tinted lenses!

This time last year a lot of people were predicting WYN to be the next big success story and they had major league US investors eyeing them up to take a large share of the company to keep accelerating their growth. Less than a year later they are gone and have left a LOT of pissed off investors.

yes definitely. Only invest only what u can afford to lose in the share market. But I strongly believe in USA faith sector....some states, people are regularly attend church weekly and a must!

[Jinx]

Way ahead of itself IMO. 450m market cap... should be around 300m max I would have thought given its low starting point for its growth rates. Big oppourtunity though so can understand why its higher. But be wary ANY bad news I would expect the SP to drop sharply. I can imagine Trumps big supporters (the evangelicals) jumping on to the protectionist bandwagon pretty quickly.

This I strongly disagree with, this election would have increased the amount given to charity because of spooked Hilary supporters and happy Trump supporters. To suggest that people will jump off certain phone apps because of a protectionist mindset is crazy.



So "in just over 12 months time they will be generating" is perhaps a little too definite statement of the future.

So far Pushpay hasn't missed a beat and has only over delivered. Agreed that if they can't hit targets pph will drop like a rock but with xmas + election drama I'm confident we will see another quarter of over deliverance.

[Leftfield]

Interesting times for the Digital payment sector....

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-23/cash-ban-the-best-thing-to-happen-to-indian-digital-payments

[iceman]

Yes,but with internet companies with single products in single markets growth can be very lumpy. They are high risk and have the next years growth (if not more) priced in. Don't bet your house on it, is all I am saying and be aware of risks through rose tinted lenses!

This time last year a lot of people were predicting WYN to be the next big success story and they had major league US investors eyeing them up to take a large share of the company to keep accelerating their growth. Less than a year later they are gone and have left a LOT of pissed off investors.

I think these are wise words blobbles. Investors need to understand the big risk and large SP fluctuations with companies like PPH, particularly newcomers to the sharemarket. They would be well advised to do some research into DIL, XRO and WIN before investing in PPH.
Having said that, I dipped my toes into PPH a few months ago with some of of my DIL funds.

The report shows a fast growing company that is in a high cash burning state, but they have pretty much done what they said they will, so far. What I like the most from the report is the large growth in number of merchants from 2,102 last year to 5,286 now, as well as the good increase in ARPM from $361 to $534.
The number I dislike (apart from the loss) is the huge growth in staff headcount which has doubled in 12 months. This concerns me.

I believe SP will take a hammering if they do not deliver on their forecast of positive cashflow and NZ$100m ACMR by end of next year. If they meet it, we will be OK, but will need to exceed forecast significantly for SP to jump much from where it is now.

Looking forward to the journey.

[Leftfield]

An interesting development in the digital payments world.....

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-28/stripe-founders-are-youngest-irish-billionaires-on-new-valuation

[misterx]

Seems to be going down nonstop.. where's the bottom at?

[silverblizzard888]

Seems to be going down nonstop.. where's the bottom at?

Bottom could be $1.50 where support holds, but if it breaks through that then it could keep going.
At the current prices its good value especially when you compare it to the price they raised capital at not too long ago ($2.20). Story hasn't changed and things keep chugging along, so one would think good value exist at these levels for these prices.

[BlackPeter]

Bottom could be $1.50 where support holds, but if it breaks through that then it could keep going.
At the current prices its good value especially when you compare it to the price they raised capital at not too long ago ($2.20). Story hasn't changed and things keep chugging along, so one would think good value exist at these levels for these prices.

"At the current prices its good value" - how do you measure that?

P/E: negative 30
P/S: 27,5 (10 would sound ok for a software startup);
NTA: 9 cents

Is a $370m market cap really good value for a loss making SW company with $15m annual revenue (in FY2016)?

Sure, there is always hope ... and I agree, they are in the hope industry, but still?

[silverblizzard888]

"At the current prices its good value" - how do you measure that?

P/E: negative 30
P/S: 27,5 (10 would sound ok for a software startup);
NTA: 9 cents

Is a $370m market cap really good value for a loss making SW company with $15m annual revenue (in FY2016)?

Sure, there is always hope ... and I agree, they are in the hope industry, but still?

Well if you're gonna use those metrics then its not going to serve you well in coming up with a fair valuation for SaaS companies. You have to consider that this is a company growing faster than Xero was in terms of ACMR, of course its still a risky investment but this is hyper growth that most SaaS companies don't even come close to replicating.For me tracking how fast it grows its a better metric than using multiples and if they grow as they are growing now, adjusting for slower growth in later years they can very much have hundreds of millions in sales.

*Also I have seen much more aggressive valuations in the US market that will make you think this looks cheap.

[TFA]

"At the current prices its good value" - how do you measure that?

P/E: negative 30
P/S: 27,5 (10 would sound ok for a software startup);
NTA: 9 cents

Is a $370m market cap really good value for a loss making SW company with $15m annual revenue (in FY2016)?

Sure, there is always hope ... and I agree, they are in the hope industry, but still?


Revenue as last reported is annualising around $50m meaning P/S is around 8 and at the current growth rate likely to be around 5 when they report for the current quarter.

[Entrep]

You are better of buying the ASX shares if interested in this. They are getting absolutely smashed.

[Meister]

Getting smashed all around really. The company hasn't announced anything other than good news recently, but obviously sentiment has completely changed.

Is this starting to look quite cheap given their growth and success at hitting targets? (Not that one should jump to buy into a downtrend)

[Thor]

It doesn't help that the COO has been selling down at these prices. If anyone knows what is going on in the company it is him. Are they going to miss quarter guidance, or did he simply need some cash to buy that sports car for his Christmas gift? Either way, it is a red flag and there is no way to know until the quarter result is out on Jan 11. Be careful out there.

[blobbles]

Indeed, any sell down by management is a huge, huge red flag. Hence further SP degradation.

[Ace]

It doesn't help that the COO has been selling down at these prices. If anyone knows what is going on in the company it is him. Are they going to miss quarter guidance, or did he simply need some cash to buy that sports car for his Christmas gift? Either way, it is a red flag and there is no way to know until the quarter result is out on Jan 11. Be careful out there.

Do you mean like this ~170k 2016 Audi RS6 with an oddly recognisable plate I spotted a few days ago? a fairly excessive company car or xmas just came early for someone. There is one on trademe for about 200k if anyone is looking to treat themselves hahaha.

8526

[iceman]

Indeed, any sell down by management is a huge, huge red flag. Hence further SP degradation.

Yes it is but as has often been said on various threads here they are human beings that have needs for themselves and their families and sometime like to sell some of their shares for various and understandable reasons that have nothing to do with the company's performance. I think it is different and more serious when senior people sell from unprofitable startups like this one where we the small investors are very much relying on them knowing much better than we possibly can and them doing the right think in managing the Co. So obviously any sell down y senior management or Directors in Pushpay is a great concern and not helpful to SP. This ride is starting to remind me of early DIL ride :-)

[winner69]

Do you mean like this ~170k 2016 Audi RS6 with an oddly recognisable plate I spotted a few days ago? a fairly excessive company car or xmas just came early for someone. There is one on trademe for about 200k if anyone is looking to treat themselves hahaha.

8526

Nice car eh

Probably leased ....at some exorbitant rate .....but in line with required remuneration of senior management

[Ace]

Nice car eh

Probably leased ....at some exorbitant rate .....but in line with required remuneration of senior management

Good point, a nice car indeed, I wonder what pushpay need a car with a Lamborghini engine for haha. Not a fan of Audi, I would have enjoyed it more if they got a Ferrari or Lamborghini instead. I guess the Audi appears less flamboyant haha.

[Leftfield]

PPH responds to NZX query re price drop

Pushpay Holdings Limited (‘Pushpay’ or ‘the Company’) continues to comply with its continuousdisclosure obligations under the NZX Listing Rules, including Listing Rule 10.1.1. We are not aware ofany material matters relating to company performance that would explain Pushpay’s recent share pricemovements, and do not consider that the current share price is reflective of Pushpay’s performance andoutlook.
Pushpay wishes to take this opportunity to note the following:


- Pushpay continues to exceed guidance. The Company exceeded its target for the quarterended 30 September 2016 by achieving net Customer (previously Merchant) growth of 795Customers for the quarter ended 30 September 2016. This exceeded the net Customer growth of725 Customers in the previous quarter ended 30 June 2016.

- Pushpay is continuing to make progress in the USA faith sector. As at 30 September 2016,Pushpay was servicing 30 of the top 100 largest churches in the USA, six more than as at theend of the previous quarter. To give context as to the sizes of these organisations, the largestchurch that Pushpay services has over 39,000 average weekly attendees.

- Pushpay is delivering on its growth strategy. Pushpay increased its total Customer numbersto 5,286 as at 30 September 2016, while also increasing Average Revenue Per Customer(ARPC, previously ARPM), which indicates that deal size is increasing in accordance with thestrategy to attract larger customers.

- Pushpay remains on track to meet its targets. Since the latest operational update on 23November 2016, the Company has made good progress and remains on track to meet thetargets to:


- Exceed, in the current quarter ending 31 December 2016, the ACMR increase over theprevious quarter ended 30 September 2016;

- Reach US$72 million ACMR prior to the end of calendar year 2017; and

- Reach breakeven on a monthly cash flow basis prior to the end of calendar year 2017.



- Pushpay’s growth is gaining recognition. Pushpay has been placed number one on theDeloitte Fast 50 New Zealand list and number 10 on the Deloitte Technology Fast 500 Asia
Pacific list, with 4,574% revenue growth over three years. This achievement is testament to thecommitment and expertise of our team, the growth strategy that we continue to execute on andthe industry-leading solution that we offer.
Pushpay will release its next Quarterly Operational Update on Wednesday, 11 January 2017.

[Entrep]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/why-pushpay-shares-have-nearly-halved-cg-p-197892

Anyone got a subscription?

[Harvey Specter]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/why-pushpay-shares-have-nearly-halved-cg-p-197892

Anyone got a subscription?blaming market sentiment, Wynyard and Orion

[iceman]

Quite a healthy turnover today and SP holding. Will this be the bottom this time ???

[sb9]

Well, explains to some extent why Paul Shigles Chief Operating Officer has been offloading his shares in past few months. Leaving the company end of Feb '17 along some key management changes as per notification given today on NZX.

[iceman]

Well, explains to some extent why Paul Shigles Chief Operating Officer has been offloading his shares in past few months. Leaving the company end of Feb '17 along some key management changes as per notification given today on NZX.

Quite some changes indeed. Probably the biggest change is the move of senior operational staff to the USA pointing to continued build up and growth there. What do you read into this announcement sb9 ?

[sb9]

Quite some changes indeed. Probably the biggest change is the move of senior operational staff to the USA pointing to continued build up and growth there. What do you read into this announcement sb9 ?

My take is that Paul has been shown door diplomatically.

And big push to US based staff means they're very serious about maximising opportunities over there as they mentioned in their last update that starting from thanksgiving day until Christmas is whe they expect huge growth in church donations.

Another point is Chris has more time to look into more strategic areas to bolt in future growth. Having said that from sp perspective, there still seem to be lot of selling pressure for one or two big holders and looks like that won't vanish anytime soon.

[Beagle]

Do you mean like this ~170k 2016 Audi RS6 with an oddly recognisable plate I spotted a few days ago? a fairly excessive company car or xmas just came early for someone. There is one on trademe for about 200k if anyone is looking to treat themselves hahaha.

8526

There's an old adage that one should never invest in a company that owns a corporate jet. RS6 not known to break any altitude records but a jet or sorts nonetheless. Disc - Don't own, this company doesn't meet my investment criteria on a number of grounds.

[iceman]

There's an old adage that one should never invest in a company that owns a corporate jet. RS6 not known to break any altitude records but a jet or sorts nonetheless. Disc - Don't own, this company doesn't meet my investment criteria on a number of grounds.

A relatively small part of my portfolio is often invested in high risk and often unproven businesses. Some have done me very well such as ATM and DIL, some terribly like PRC. None of them meet the investment criteria I use for the largest part of my investment portfolio. But they've been fun.
This one so far is in the red for me but I will be holding it very long term unless something unforeseen happens. May even top up along the way :-)

Have a good Christmas mate and all other SH as well. May 2017 be a prosperous and happy one for us all.

[Beagle]

A relatively small part of my portfolio is often invested in high risk and often unproven businesses. Some have done me very well such as ATM and DIL, some terribly like PRC. None of them meet the investment criteria I use for the largest part of my investment portfolio. But they've been fun.
This one so far is in the red for me but I will be holding it very long term unless something unforeseen happens. May even top up along the way :-)

Have a good Christmas mate and all other SH as well. May 2017 be a prosperous and happy one for us all.

Yes fair comment, maybe having ~ 5% of one's portfolio in speculative investments isn't a bad idea...food for thought for 2017's strategy.
Merry Christmas mate, and all the best for Christmas and the new year to everyone.

[Fisherking]

I don't have any inside knowledge, but the way i read is he don't want to move to US. Pity he's sold down.

[silverblizzard888]

Looks like share price is recovering

[iceman]

I suspect we will need to keepseTbelts securely fastened on this ride for quite some time yet. Bring it on 😀

[iceman]

Looks like we are heading for a "please explain" from NZX. Answer probably will be that it was oversold before Christmas 😀

[sb9]

Looks like we are heading for a "please explain" from NZX. Answer probably will be that it was oversold before Christmas 

The price recovery has happened on combination of two things in my opinion, one next week's (wed 11th) quarterly update which I'm expecting would be a boomer after thanksgiving and Christmas events in the US and second being I suspect the seller has done all the selling...

Did top up more in the last few days....didn't have guts to catch falling knife last year and buying into current uptrend is bit more safer bet.

[kizame]

well I caught the falling knife twice, once at 1.79 thought afterwords I had made a short term mistake,so when i saw the volume come in at the 1.33 level i doubled my holding at 1.35, I'm pretty glad it's gone up.
I do really like the look of this company at this stage.

[kiora]

well I caught the falling knife twice, once at 1.79 thought afterwords I had made a short term mistake,so when i saw the volume come in at the 1.33 level i doubled my holding at 1.35, I'm pretty glad it's gone up.
I do really like the look of this company at this stage.

I'll second that

[Jinx]

If this team manage to continue to pull off what they have been and deliver on cash flow positive in 2017 then this price is a steal.

[kiora]

The price recovery has happened on combination of two things in my opinion, one next week's (wed 11th) quarterly update which I'm expecting would be a boomer after thanksgiving and Christmas events in the US and second being I suspect the seller has done all the selling...

Did top up more in the last few days....didn't have guts to catch falling knife last year and buying into current uptrend is bit more safer bet.

Actually 3 things:3)Someone buying

[Whitebeard]

PEB get a mention in here:
http://www.einnews.com/pr_news/360782532/global-cancer-diagnostics-market-is-estimated-to-grow-at-a-cagr-over-12-by-2022

[BlackPeter]

PEB get a mention in here:
http://www.einnews.com/pr_news/360782532/global-cancer-diagnostics-market-is-estimated-to-grow-at-a-cagr-over-12-by-2022

wrong thread? and hey - a CAGR of 12% is quite meaningless given the low base they start with.

[King1212]

PEB get a mention in here:
http://www.einnews.com/pr_news/360782532/global-cancer-diagnostics-market-is-estimated-to-grow-at-a-cagr-over-12-by-2022


Hahaha...wrong thread...

[silverblizzard888]

I'm forecasting for 3rd Quarter (31 Dec 2016) that in total

USD$40 million ACMR (increase of about $6 million)
6130 Merchants (increase of 844 Merchants)

If they beat that then I'm super optimistic that they will reach USD$72 (or $100 million NZD) and if they deliver below that I'll watch with a bit of caution.

[sb9]

I'm forecasting for 3rd Quarter (31 Dec 2016) that in total

USD$40 million ACMR (increase of about $6 million)
6130 Merchants (increase of 844 Merchants)

If they beat that then I'm super optimistic that they will reach USD$72 (or $100 million NZD) and if they deliver below that I'll watch with a bit of caution.

https://nzx.com/companies/PPH/announcements/295301

"Pushpay is pleased to announce that it has exceeded the previous quarter ACMR increase by 10.6%, resulting in an ACMR increase of US$7.3 million over the quarter ended 31 December 2016 (excluding ACMR derived from the acquisition of Bluebridge’s church app related business in November 2016)."

[King1212]

I'm forecasting for 3rd Quarter (31 Dec 2016) that in total

USD$40 million ACMR (increase of about $6 million)
6130 Merchants (increase of 844 Merchants)

If they beat that then I'm super optimistic that they will reach USD$72 (or $100 million NZD) and if they deliver below that I'll watch with a bit of caution.


Well above your expectation...an increase of $7.3 m not included revenue from blubridge app...:t_up:

[iceman]

Very positive. Now we need to wait for the full numbers on Wednesday.

[sb9]

Very positive. Now we need to wait for the full numbers on Wednesday.

Yes, specially around the Bluebridge's church app contribution and overall merchant numbers...

[iceman]

Looks like Mr Market likes the little snippet we got this morning.

[ShouldHaveHeld]

Wow, wonder how much they will like it after Wednesday :scared:

[kiora]

Wow, wonder how much they will like it after Wednesday :scared:

Heaps :t_up:

[sb9]

Wow, wonder how much they will like it after Wednesday :scared:

First stop would be to get to the recent capital raising price of $2.25 or so...

[BlackPeter]

First stop would be to get to the recent capital raising price of $2.25 or so...

technically still in a downtrend (lower highs) - but GLTAH!

Discl: 2 hot 4 me;

[iceman]

technically still in a downtrend (lower highs) - but GLTAH!

Discl: 2 hot 4 me;

You of no FAITH BP :-)

[BlackPeter]

You of no FAITH BP :-)

Well spotted ...

I only believe what I can observe, measure and / or logically deduct - or if I have a reasonable reason (based on above) to apply TRUST ... ;)

Agree however that the last point is (to a certain degree) subjective ...

[sb9]

6130 Merchants (increase of 844 Merchants)


You're almost dead right about merchant numbers, slightly better at 6143....Good forecast!!!

https://nzx.com/companies/PPH/announcements/295403

[iceman]

You're almost dead right about merchant numbers, slightly better at 6143....Good forecast!!!

https://nzx.com/companies/PPH/announcements/295403

Brilliant result

[ShouldHaveHeld]

I'm forecasting for 3rd Quarter (31 Dec 2016) that in total

USD$40 million ACMR (increase of about $6 million)
6130 Merchants (increase of 844 Merchants)

If they beat that then I'm super optimistic that they will reach USD$72 (or $100 million NZD) and if they deliver below that I'll watch with a bit of caution.

You were VERY close with this one.

edit: damn im too slow

[sb9]

Brilliant result

Agree 100%, today's announcement along with conference call later on at 11am should ease this into $2 territory and beyond....

[BlackPeter]

OK - so they achieved another quarter of growth as planned. Great. I am sure the punters will flow in and create (now or later) a RAK / WYN / XRO / PEB - like peak. Great times for traders (who know when to exit) ahead. Question is - how does the SP look after that? Is this where the faith industry comes into play?

Maybe I don't understand their business model (and very interested to learn), but from where I stand: they are offering just another way to (electronically) transfer funds from a client account to a receivers account using a mobile app.

Basically mobile internet banking as any other banking app, including a bit of accounting on the receiving end (to allow the preparation of annual donation slips).

Did I get this right? If yes - what is their moat? What stops Apple (Apple pay), Pay Pal, Amazon, Google Wallet or any of the credit card companies (to name just a few) to move into this field if the numbers start to look interesting?

Given that their incredible market cap ($475m) is based on basically exponential growth assumptions - where will this growth coming from, given that it is not hard for competitors to move into this market?

Are we sure the emperor is wearing any clothes?

[sb9]

OK - so they achieved another quarter of growth as planned. Great. I am sure the punters will flow in and create (now or later) a RAK / WYN / XRO / PEB - like peak. Great times for traders (who know when to exit) ahead. Question is - how does the SP look after that? Is this where the faith industry comes into play?

Maybe I don't understand their business model (and very interested to learn), but from where I stand: they are offering just another way to (electronically) transfer funds from a client account to a receivers account using a mobile app.

Basically mobile internet banking as any other banking app, including a bit of accounting on the receiving end (to allow the preparation of annual donation slips).

Did I get this right? If yes - what is their moat? What stops Apple (Apple pay), Pay Pal, Amazon, Google Wallet or any of the credit card companies (to name just a few) to move into this field if the numbers start to look interesting?

Given that their incredible market cap ($475m) is based on basically exponential growth assumptions - where will this growth coming from, given that it is not hard for competitors to move into this market?

Are we sure the emperor is wearing any clothes?

There's a conf call scheduled at 11am this morning with id 921250 and dial in 0800122360 and am sure Chris or any other management team would be more than happy to answer your questions there...

[BlackPeter]

There's a conf call scheduled at 11am this morning with id 921250 and dial in 0800122360 and am sure Chris or any other management team would be more than happy to answer your questions there...

Given that I neither hold nor intend to probably a bit inappropriate for me to gate crash their conference call. I would have thought that any holder could easily respond to these questions - I guess, why would anybody invest in this company without having done the research?

[sb9]

Given that I neither hold nor intend to probably a bit inappropriate for me to gate crash their conference call. I would have thought that any holder could easily respond to these questions - I guess, why would anybody invest in this company without having done the research?

Fair enough...for your benefit..

"Playback Details
Replay of the Interim Investor Briefing will be available for 30 days following the completion of the call.
New Zealand: 0800 122 135
All countries: +64 9 950 7088
Replay Pin: 2428"

And by the way one of the questions was along the competitive threats from legacy players like Google, Paypal etc...you can listen and make an assessment out of that.

[kizame]

OK - so they achieved another quarter of growth as planned. Great. I am sure the punters will flow in and create (now or later) a RAK / WYN / XRO / PEB - like peak. Great times for traders (who know when to exit) ahead. Question is - how does the SP look after that? Is this where the faith industry comes into play?

Maybe I don't understand their business model (and very interested to learn), but from where I stand: they are offering just another way to (electronically) transfer funds from a client account to a receivers account using a mobile app.

Basically mobile internet banking as any other banking app, including a bit of accounting on the receiving end (to allow the preparation of annual donation slips).

Did I get this right? If yes - what is their moat? What stops Apple (Apple pay), Pay Pal, Amazon, Google Wallet or any of the credit card companies (to name just a few) to move into this field if the numbers start to look interesting?

Given that their incredible market cap ($475m) is based on basically exponential growth assumptions - where will this growth coming from, given that it is not hard for competitors to move into this market?

Are we sure the emperor is wearing any clothes?

You are very nagative on this company,so why do you bother to post?
you wonder why one of the big boys hasn't got in and gate crashed the party,either they havn't noticed the opportunity,or maybe its easier for them to wait and pick up the leading player once it is a serious enough opportunity, and therefore big enough enterprise to make a material difference to their profits.
I believe this company is on the same path as DIL, Read the numbers! You don't believe what they report?
So far no bigger techie has, or serious competition has attempted to compete,so why worry about that when it Hasn't happened.

[BlackPeter]

You are very nagative on this company,so why do you bother to post?

Sorry - didn't realize you want to turn this into a fan club for cheer leaders only .... ;)

Why do I bother to post? Well, several reasons:

(1) Actually - I was not negative but asked only (I think very reasonable) questions every serious investor should ask herself before investing. Given that some of the people here are holding (I assume) I hoped to get the answers through this thread. Apparently I was wrong, but this is good information as well. Stocks hyped up by people who invest without serious research are highly dangerous ...

(2) I find investor psychology fascinating. Some people gamble their hard earned money away but aggressively attack anybody who dare to have a different opinion about their beloved investments. "Why do you comment if you don't like this stock" is just the beginning. If you don't know what I mean - have a read through the PEB thread. You can learn more about these investors when communicating with them, so consider it in part as experiment ...

(3) I always keep in mind that there are not just old experienced investors around, but as well lots of newbies (many of them not even posting). If the whole thing turns (in my view more likely than not) to custard, than at least I don't want to hear complaints that people haven't been warned. I consider it unethical to see a risk without warning others (who might be effected) about it.

Just for the record - yes, you might be right and this stock might turn into another DIL (but than it might be better to pick the shares up when they are at the bottom - what was it with DIL - 5 cents? Maybe the "faith industry" is that special that they need a different "cash in" app. Pecunia non olet.

More likely however is in my view that this stock goes the way most of the hyped up but half baked tech-stocks go ... and this is a typical peak / bubble profile (and I have no clue whether this stock will peak at WYN's $3 or XRO's $40+). From there however it is more likely to drop .... and the climate on this thread will get more frosty :scared:.

For anybody who wants to know more about previous tech stocks - I'd'highly recommend to study the WYN thread, the RAK thread, the PEB thread and yes, why not? - the DIL thread.

[kizame]

BlackPeter you can't base every tech stock on wyn,xro,rak. For instance it has been well known for quite a while that rakon lacked the financial management to make a consistant success of their business particularly for their shareholders. Wyn, geo yep not great, but xro isn't finished yet,c'mon of course people get over optimistic on the near term prospects,but that does not mean its all over,dil came back and did very well for their shareholders.
PPH, you need to give the newbies, (if thats to whom you aim your advice to) ,a chance to also make some money on a very good recent rally in shareprice.
For their performance to date,they excede their projections,and longer term plenty of room to grow further.
No way would we want another peb thread,but also we aren't all Lovers of this stock,maybe some just see great potential to make a buck in the medium term.
You are right though, we still need a balance of opinion. Maybe you could expand on your thoughts as to why you are not that keen on this one.

[Jinx]

Pehaps BP as many others do, sees a company that has had large cash burn with 0 profit at close to half a billion dollar market cap. Hearing those facts is enough to turn many investors off. But to me Pph presents a unique opportunity to invest in a company that is gaining an ever increasing reach within a part of the world that more money then they know what to do with(religious Americans). If pph can deliver on a becoming cash flow positive this year my guess is today's share price will look mighty cheap in 12 months.

[silverblizzard888]

Reponse to BlackPeter -I respect all opinions because at the end of the day none of us know if we have a sure thing or not, its fair if you want to be sceptical about the company given technology companies are risky and all new investors to the scene should be prudent in their thinking, decision making and ultimately their investing. However I think some have found you too aggressive with your scepticism that it feels more an attack with negative connotations rather than a warning to be cautious (if you know what I mean).
--------------------------------

Pushpay so far has been very consistent in what it has set out to achieve and no matter what company you are to invest in that’s a great sign of things going well, especially their phenomenal growth rate and a path towards break-even.

It's not like RAK who have tried to produce hardware (chips) that aren't as competitive when it comes to cost, which was always going to be a losing battle when there are many hardware giants that were already established in their field and in Asian with a cost and scale advantage. Management at RAK also entrenched themselves on all seats of power in the company refusing to take on much change, but things do look like they a slowly changing.

Not like WYN who did not deliver on promises, tried to expand too quick on an inefficient cost base and looked nowhere near break-even, which ultimately broke them.

Xero in my opinion is a success story who have performed well in NZ, AUS and UK, but with some possible struggle with established player Inuit in US, but making ground. You could have viewed Xero as small (in terms of funding) and the minute every other accounting software maker started offering cloud accounting platforms Xero wouldn't not be able to compete on their budget, but they are doing fine. Yes the share price did shoot up beyond what would seemed unreasonable, but sometimes that happens and you'd call the $45 per share crazy, but currently its fairly priced and worth a lot more than when they first started trading on the market worth a fraction of the value.

Its not like PEB who set a forecast of $100 million in 5 years without understanding the market they were trying to get those sales in, which looks like they won't achieve that target unless they get more aggressive in their sales.

PPH has: achieved targets set, restructures management when required (as witnessed recently), understands the market they are selling in and not spreading out on expansion and mainly focusing on the US, so cost have not spiralled out of control and they are on track to break even.
---------------------

They have a very simple business model, they are a payment app and yes you could probably use a banking app that would do the very same thing.

Its unique in that is specialised and concentrated for donations and no other details are needed by the person donating except the Church's name. Face it humans are very lazy creatures and yes you could give them the information to make a bank transfer, but something about it feels like a cold transaction. Theres something much warmer about a donation app and not having to remembering any other details if they are travelling and forget. PPH has even proved that by integrating the app more donations are received, so its pretty hard to argue about the results it has proved with thousands of churches.

However they are creating a uniqueness about themselves now with more addition of user engaging content with the Bluebridge acquisition, which starts deviating away from making just a payment, but also engaging with the content too.

Also annual giving statements can be produced, which for your bank transactions you'd have to deal with the mess of sorting between other transactions too. The say they can cut down the time with dealing with these transactions from 30 hours to just over 5, which itself makes for great time and cost saving if hiring someone to do it. With PPH it only stores donation information and makes like a lot easier for the ones managing the church's accounts. That creates a good point of difference from a banking app too and start creating a moat with the user who finds the app engaging and the Church who have a better collation of information.

As already mentioned today in the investor briefing, theres currently no app competitors in their space competing with them for churches. The big players would likely take on a general solution for the market if they did offer one as they are big and don't need to target a niche group like churches. PPH is a first mover advantage and they are doing a good job making themselves more unique that by the time there are other solutions they are so unique no churches would have any incentive to change solutions.
----------------------------------

As it stands they have 6144 Churches that they offer their service to. There are 314,000 churches in the US, so its fair to say they have a lot more market share they could be capturing to grow and that’s only one country. They can also use the same payment app for charities and businesses, so there is a lot of untapped growth as it stands, they just need to continue to execute as they have done.

Hope that proves I'm a serious investor who considers this company valuation fair.

[iceman]

Have just read through the comments here today. Haven' t had a chance to listen to to presentation yet but just want to say that as a PPH investor who has significantly increased my holding recently, I very much welcome the posts from BP and others who have a different view to me on this stock. That is what this forum is about, sharing differing views. I am glad silverblizzard888 has taken the time to answer BP in some detail and it is a good answer that I fully agree with it. Thanks sb888.

I would add that they have been successful in targeting the large churches, including 5 of the top 10 churches and 30 of the top 100 churches in the US. They have a first mover advantage in a huge sector worth billions, that is only starting to move from cash or cheque to online donations, so as my mate Percy would say, PPH is very well positioned. Online giving is only 24% of donations today and was only around or just over 10% 3-5 years ago. This is forecast to increase steadily. Some of the churches using PPH's platform have reached 40% already.

I would also add that we have some very astute investors that have invested large amounts of money in this company, including in the recent capital raising. They have not been selling. That is a good sign.

Companies like PPH are notoriously difficult to value and it can be debated endlessly what valuation method should be used. I would argue at this stage, while the company is growing at this rate and meeting targets, including towards being cashflow positive fairly early in its life, that price to sales ratio would not be an unusual method to use for a company like this. Then it is up to each investor what multiple they find reasonable.

Having said all that, I think investors have to be extremely careful and only invest in a company like PPH if they are ready for a high risk investment that will no doubt have wild swings in SP. I have researched all the companies PB mentioned (over the last 5-6 years) for comparisons and only ever invested in one of them, DIL. It was a very sucessful investment for me but a wild ride and it sure had its fair numbers of sceptics for a long time on this forum. It was a good debate Sadly it was sold far too early in my view and I am sure the new owners are doing very well with it now.

I have done my homework on PPH and am comfortable with my position. I expect to increase it. It is in the risky part of my portfolio and certainly wouldn't meet the criteria I use for most companies and the largest part of my portfolio. But I encourage people to share their views, both for and against investing in this company. It helps us all.

[Entrep]

Go BlackPeter!

[King1212]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11780829

[peat]

yes I think the moat is that tithers are sticky. Tithe collectors dont want to rock the boat by changing things that might make the tither payers reconsider.

[sb9]

Good robust and very constructive discussion from all y'day's posts. Its always good to have for and against views and that's what makes this forum so interesting to be part of.

For me personally I did my research on PPH and felt comfortable in the way they operate their business and are very careful with shareholders funds. I wouldn't put them in the same category as few other mentioned companies like WYN, PEB and RAK (apologies if you're a holder in any of those).

To begin, you just need to look at the way they disclose all relevant information be it financial or operational, very transparent and clear around detail. They provide quarterly updates which enables one to decide on their position with regards to investing which many companies do not provide.

They're moving most of their operational staff to US which is where the main action is and that's makes me comfortable about their business strategy. And you know what happens when they strike a cord with one of the big boys in silicon valley, they'll be snapped up just like that which is what is going to be with this one ultimately.

I'm comfortable with my investment choice on this one and will keep tight handle on things as they progress.

[BlackPeter]

Good discussion. And yes - looking at the other technology companies we had at the NZX, I agree that in terms of product offering DIL is the closest. They as well offer a technically quite simple product for a niche market - and hey, while theirs was an amazing roller coaster journey, they ended (as listed company) on a high.

Does this mean that every company with a similar product to DIL is to succeed - obviously not, and anybody who followed DIL knows, that they had more than one near fatal accident on their way.

Can't really compare them in terms of board competence, but agree that RAK as well as PEB as well as WYN suffered in part due to huge governance issues (be it plain incompetence, wrong skill sets, nepotism (RAK) or a combination thereof.

I haven't yet investigated the PPH board myself (an exercise I would recommend any potential investor to do), but had for this post a brief look into their latest report. Oh - surprise ... I note with interest that Chris Huljich is one of the directors. Any potential investor in PPH might want to research the history of Huljich Wealth Management (for some funny reason not mentioned in his PPH-CV).

And hey - here is another interesting name: Bruce Gordon; Now that's obviously a quite common name, but there was a Bruce Gordon at the board of Hanover who is on my "never again" list. Think as well he looked similar, but my memory is not photographic. Might be worthwhile to research whether this is the same person? Any of the investors know?

Both (if its the same Bruce) did sit on boards which had in the past problems to protect their investors funds. Up to each individual to decide, whether these are the best people to look now after their money in PPH. A very personal choice, but I think I know what my answer would be.

But apart from this - yes, there are obviously the fundamentals. Personally I do prefer to buy into companies which either demonstrated already that they are able to make money (I mean more money than they spend) or, alternatively (if they are startups like PPH) which have a potential large enough to pay for the risk that 80% of startups die off before they start to make money.

This means - to be comparable in earning potential with an established (money making) company, they would need to have at least 5 times the earning potential (to compensate for the 4 out of 5 companies biting the dust before they make money). Given their current market cap (nearly $500m) would they need to have a realistic NPV (edited, I first wrote here NPAT, which is obviously nonsense) of at least 2.5 billion to compensate for the 80% chance of a total capital loss). I'd love to see the growth assumptions turning this into a viable business case. Maybe I am a non believer, but I don't see this net worth in this particular startup with $15m revenue (FY2016) and a $20m loss. Given the amazing staff growth am I confident that for 2017 its not just their revenue, but as well their loss increasing.

Ah - and before I forget ... just watch their staff growth. If they kept growing as they did last FY, they must have passed (or at least approached) by now the 500+ staff barrier. This means they would need to put a lot of additional effort into (internal) communication and organisation. I have seen many companies failing to move over this hurdle and am wondering whether they have the management expertise to pass it. Any of the investors researched this? Do they have an experienced and empowered quality manager?

Will they manage to grow revenue ultimately faster than cash burn? Maybe, if all stars stay aligned and the low hanging fruit don't run out ... Would I want to bet my money on it? Certainly not.

Anyway - DYOR and GLTAH. Just remember - its a dangerous world out there :scared: and everybody wants just your best: your money :p

[kizame]

Excellent, thank you BlackPeter.

However I will continue to look at performance,and so far they can't be faulted. Without a certain amount of calculated risk in any endeavour,life would be a little boring for me.

[Cobber]

Good discussion. And yes - looking at the other technology companies we had at the NZX, I agree that in terms of product offering DIL is the closest. They as well offer a technically quite simple product for a niche market - and hey, while theirs was an amazing roller coaster journey, they ended (as listed company) on a high.

Does this mean that every company with a similar product to DIL is to succeed - obviously not, and anybody who followed DIL knows, that they had more than one near fatal accident on their way.

Can't really compare them in terms of board competence, but agree that RAK as well as PEB as well as WYN suffered in part due to huge governance issues (be it plain incompetence, wrong skill sets, nepotism (RAK) or a combination thereof.

I haven't yet investigated the PPH board myself (an exercise I would recommend any potential investor to do), but had for this post a brief look into their latest report. Oh - surprise ... I note with interest that Chris Huljich is one of the directors. Any potential investor in PPH might want to research the history of Huljich Wealth Management (for some funny reason not mentioned in his PPH-CV).

And hey - here is another interesting name: Bruce Gordon; Now that's obviously a quite common name, but there was a Bruce Gordon at the board of Hanover who is on my "never again" list. Think as well he looked similar, but my memory is not photographic. Might be worthwhile to research whether this is the same person? Any of the investors know?

Both (if its the same Bruce) did sit on boards which had in the past problems to protect their investors funds. Up to each individual to decide, whether these are the best people to look now after their money in PPH. A very personal choice, but I think I know what my answer would be.

But apart from this - yes, there are obviously the fundamentals. Personally I do prefer to buy into companies which either demonstrated already that they are able to make money (I mean more money than they spend) or, alternatively (if they are startups like PPH) which have a potential large enough to pay for the risk that 80% of startups die off before they start to make money.

This means - to be comparable in earning potential with an established (money making) company, they would need to have at least 5 times the earning potential (to compensate for the 4 out of 5 companies biting the dust before they make money). Given their current market cap (nearly $500m) would they need to have a realistic NPV (edited, I first wrote here NPAT, which is obviously nonsense) of at least 2.5 billion to compensate for the 80% chance of a total capital loss). I'd love to see the growth assumptions turning this into a viable business case. Maybe I am a non believer, but I don't see this net worth in this particular startup with $15m revenue (FY2016) and a $20m loss. Given the amazing staff growth am I confident that for 2017 its not just their revenue, but as well their loss increasing.

Ah - and before I forget ... just watch their staff growth. If they kept growing as they did last FY, they must have passed (or at least approached) by now the 500+ staff barrier. This means they would need to put a lot of additional effort into (internal) communication and organisation. I have seen many companies failing to move over this hurdle and am wondering whether they have the management expertise to pass it. Any of the investors researched this? Do they have an experienced and empowered quality manager?

Will they manage to grow revenue ultimately faster than cash burn? Maybe, if all stars stay aligned and the low hanging fruit don't run out ... Would I want to bet my money on it? Certainly not.

Anyway - DYOR and GLTAH. Just remember - its a dangerous world out there :scared: and everybody wants just your best: your money :p

Some interesting points Peter.

They state that by the end of calendar 2017 that ACMR will reach $72 million.

They also state they will break even at the end of calendar 2017.

So reaching these goals is the first litmus test. The 2nd is.... for every $1million of revenue growth thereafter, what % is profit.

The next 24 months for these guys will be nice to watch as it plays out.

[Jinx]

Pushpay has had a rough few months taking hit after hit, primarily due to the NZ dollar gaining strength (meaning PPH profits go down since they're in USD).

Some interesting food for thought is Trumps impact on Pushpay, although not obvious at first I'm willing to bet Trumps childish and harmful policies will be seriously increasing the amount given to charity and churches though Pushpay's app. I imagine both sides would see an increase, religious fundamentalists who think Trump is doing the US a massive favour will be ecstatic and opening their wallets. As well as everyone who disagrees with Trump feeling worried and unsure are also likely opening their wallets. Perhaps a cold way of looking at the situation but this on top of Christmas has me excited for the next update
Just some speculation :)

[BlackPeter]

Pushpay has had a rough few months taking hit after hit, primarily due to the NZ dollar gaining strength (meaning PPH profits go down since they're in USD).

Some interesting food for thought is Trumps impact on Pushpay, although not obvious at first I'm willing to bet Trumps childish and harmful policies will be seriously increasing the amount given to charity and churches though Pushpay's app. I imagine both sides would see an increase, religious fundamentalists who think Trump is doing the US a massive favour will be ecstatic and opening their wallets. As well as everyone who disagrees with Trump feeling worried and unsure are also likely opening their wallets. Perhaps a cold way of looking at the situation but this on top of Christmas has me excited for the next update
Just some speculation :)

Agree with all three statements: Yes, PPH had (and still has) a terrible time; Yes, Trump declaring war on everybody might well drive people back to church and yes, this is all speculation :p;.

Just remember - people do have other ways than PPH App to buy their way into paradise ;); Most churches are quite happy to take cash, cheques, bank transfers or valuables and real estate in any form & shape.

[kizame]

Agree with all three statements: Yes, PPH had (and still has) a terrible time; Yes, Trump declaring war on everybody might well drive people back to church and yes, this is all speculation :p;.

Just remember - people do have other ways than PPH App to buy their way into paradise ;); Most churches are quite happy to take cash, cheques, bank transfers or valuables and real estate in any form & shape.

Yep they have other ways to pay,but mostly people are going to pay with the most convenient option,and an app is an excellent way to pay,in fact that way,they are more likely to give more.
I for one love the convenience of paying anything via phone,a trip to the bank and cheques are nearly a thing of the past.
people are people and the less effort they have to do to get a job done,the better.

[Entrep]

If there's one thing I've learned from opening a US bank account (with Wells Fargo when I went on holiday last year) it's that transferring money to another person in the US is a freaking mission. Not like we have back here.

[sb9]

Yep they have other ways to pay,but mostly people are going to pay with the most convenient option,and an app is an excellent way to pay,in fact that way,they are more likely to give more.
I for one love the convenience of paying anything via phone,a trip to the bank and cheques are nearly a thing of the past.
people are people and the less effort they have to do to get a job done,the better.

Couldn't agree more, with whole world now virtually turning digital in the way things are done be it payments, shopping, learning etc. People love ease of doing things when they want, where they want and most importantly how they want.

[sb9]

Notice some big volumes on ASX today, 3M+ shares traded so far. Looks like some big fund is accumulating..

[kizame]

yeah big volume over there,won't get too excited just yet,there was big sell volume on our market yesterday,hasn't quite broken the downtrend line.
Watching to make sure the down leg has finished before I jump back in.

[sb9]

https://nzx.com/files/attachments/252494.pdf

Always good sign whenever directors puts money where their mouth is....in this case on-market purchase of 147,516 shares at an av price of $1.68.

[sb9]

Some big volume from PPH.ASX pre-market..




1
9:07:40 am
187.5
4,322,529
$8,104,742
Crossed, Special Crossing >= T3 < T3

[sb9]

By the way, that price of AUD 187.50 is equivalent of NZD 200 at today's conversion rate of .9395

[Beagle]

By the way, that price of AUD 187.50 is equivalent of NZD 200 at today's conversion rate of .9395

You beat me too it. Sure you meant $2.00. Massive volume on a rising price...join the dots...glad I joined them at $1.76 yesterday and more this morning on open :)

[sb9]

You beat me too it. Sure you meant $2.00. Massive volume on a rising price...join the dots...glad I joined them at $1.76 yesterday and more this morning on open :)

Zeeepers..I'm gobsmacked that Roger is on the bandwagon of a tech company, good on ya :t_up:

[Jinx]

You beat me too it. Sure you meant $2.00. Massive volume on a rising price...join the dots...glad I joined them at $1.76 yesterday and more this morning on open :)
Great to see you jump on the bandwagon Roger! Interesting to if a 10% jump in sp is maintained in the coming days.

[Beagle]

Thanks guys...the hounds new 2017 strategy of 5% asset allocation to speculative investments is off to a roaring start !

P.S. five million crossed at $A1.87.5 now.

[Leftfield]

Nothing wrong with speculative investments Roger - you just got to choose the right ones.
Glad I sold my AIR and purchased more PPH and PIL over the last few weeks. Exciting times!
(Crikey today I even shot up to 12th in the stock picking comp!)

[Beagle]

Pehaps BP as many others do, sees a company that has had large cash burn with 0 profit at close to half a billion dollar market cap. Hearing those facts is enough to turn many investors off. But to me Pph presents a unique opportunity to invest in a company that is gaining an ever increasing reach within a part of the world that more money then they know what to do with(religious Americans). If pph can deliver on a becoming cash flow positive this year my guess is today's share price will look mighty cheap in 12 months.

Agreed and the investor who just outlaid $10m for 5m shares obviously thinks so too. Being cash flow positive within such a relatively short timeframe is an excellent result for a SAAS company and makes them a prime target for a takeover...please someone help me out and remind me..how many years has it taken XRO to stop burning cash and look at their market cap !

[iceman]

Thanks guys...the hounds new 2017 strategy of 5% asset allocation to speculative investments is off to a roaring start !

P.S. five million crossed at $A1.87.5 now.

Love it mate. I hope influenced by our recent discussion of having a small risky portfolio :-) As I've said many times before on this thread, this investment will have wild swings for awhile yet and will require nerves of steel. I remain bullish on the possibilities for this stock and have topped up quite a bit lately.
I wonder what is the catalyst for this big jump today ? But to be honest, it is only a rebound to a level it was at in late 2016 after which we had quite a significant drop without an apparent reason other than Mr Market being fickle.
Anyway, welcome aboard Roger.

[stoploss]

Love it mate. I hope influenced by our recent discussion of having a small risky portfolio :-) As I've said many times before on this thread, this investment will have wild swings for awhile yet and will require nerves of steel. I remain bullish on the possibilities for this stock and have topped up quite a bit lately.
I wonder what is the catalyst for this big jump today ? But to be honest, it is only a rebound to a level it was at in late 2016 after which we had quite a significant drop without an apparent reason other than Mr Market being fickle.
Anyway, welcome aboard Roger.

Maybe PIE switching from overweight in TIL to overweight Pushpay ?

[iceman]

Maybe PIE switching from overweight in TIL to overweight Pushpay ?

Interesting observation and not such a far fetched suggestion stoploss !

[Jinx]

Maybe PIE switching from overweight in TIL to overweight Pushpay ?

Only difference is Pushpay has yet to disappoint holders and has delivered consistent high growth....Unlke Til.

Said as an ex til holder and a current Pph holder :)

[Beagle]

Love it mate. I hope influenced by our recent discussion of having a small risky portfolio :-) As I've said many times before on this thread, this investment will have wild swings for awhile yet and will require nerves of steel. I remain bullish on the possibilities for this stock and have topped up quite a bit lately.
I wonder what is the catalyst for this big jump today ? But to be honest, it is only a rebound to a level it was at in late 2016 after which we had quite a significant drop without an apparent reason other than Mr Market being fickle.
Anyway, welcome aboard Roger.

Thanks buddy, I guess old dogs can learn new tricks with the help of their mates :) A sensible asset allocation to high growth companies heading quickly towards being cash flow neutral appears to be a very good idea :)

[winner69]

Does the time when devoted dividend hounds and conservative investors start chasing the next hot stock signal a market top and the bubble is about to burst?

[Beagle]

Its growing a lot faster than TIL mate :p

[BlackPeter]

Does the time when devoted dividend hounds and conservative investors start chasing the next hot stock signal a market top and the bubble is about to burst?


Its growing a lot faster than TIL mate :p

You both make some outstanding points ...;)

[winner69]

Its growing a lot faster than TIL mate :p

You get a taxi recently .....or was it the shoeshine boy ....


.just joking

[sb9]

Does the time when devoted dividend hounds and conservative investors start chasing the next hot stock signal a market top and the bubble is about to burst?

C'mon winner not too late to jump on the bandwagon...

[Beagle]

You get a taxi recently .....or was it the shoeshine boy ....


.just joking

lol...maybe it was just good old fashioned TA and a bit of lucky timing :D

[winner69]

C'mon winner not too late to jump on the bandwagon...

No

Taxi driver said PPH done its dash - CBL the next big thing

[Beagle]

No

Taxi driver said PPH done its dash - CBL the next big thing

No.... I overheard two personal trainers and they said Push pay is the next big thing, $3.50 before Christmas is the hot rumor :D

[winner69]

Do you mean like this ~170k 2016 Audi RS6 with an oddly recognisable plate I spotted a few days ago? a fairly excessive company car or xmas just came early for someone. There is one on trademe for about 200k if anyone is looking to treat themselves hahaha.

8526

Well

If the company can afford these things it must be flush with cash .....

......and Roger overhears a conversation that $3.50 is likely soon, esp when stating outfits like Pushpay aren't for him.......

.....then I've joined the party's with an initial stake today

The world is so happy at the moment so what can go wrong ....jeez 50% profit before Christmas will be awesome.

[Baa_Baa]

Well

If the company can afford these things it must be flush with cash .....

......and Roger overhears a conversation that $3.50 is likely soon, esp when stating outfits like Pushpay aren't for him.......

.....then I've joined the party's with an initial stake today

The world is so happy at the moment so what can go wrong ....jeez 50% profit before Christmas will be awesome.

Just don't jinx it by recommending PPH to your bowling mates ;)

[winner69]

Just don't jinx it by recommending PPH to your bowling mates ;)

No way mate

Hope I haven't been 'irrationally exuberant' and the market will collapse taking Push down with it

[Baa_Baa]

No way mate

Hope I haven't been 'irrationally exuberant' and the market will collapse taking Push down with it

No worries, it's got a gap to fill $2.33 - $2.56. $500 mill market cap, rolling in sales and cash, all good what could possibly go wrong. Upwards and onwards.

[Jinx]

Just don't jinx it by recommending PPH to your bowling mates ;)
Don't stress, haven't been bowling for a few years ;)

[Pricey]

What numbers are people predicting to get PPH to the $72m ACMR? Appreciate that revenue should be growing quicker than 2% based on transaction volume, however any quicker and they would reach their target well in advance. Or are merchant numbers going to drop off more? Just chucking some figures out there!
8684

[Baa_Baa]

lol...maybe it was just good old fashioned TA and a bit of lucky timing :D

I know you like that 100EMA breakout, (or is it the 100SMA?) either way it broke out, but today turned away at the 200SMA, perfectly at $2.03. It is a bit surprising to me if people are watching/trading the MA's on a tech spec that hasn't made a profit yet and has a MC of $500mill (how may years earnings is that? Oh, there are no earnings, right), is burning heaps of cash in expenses, and sitting on a pile of cash 'for growth'. Actually, I'm probably as surprised as the next ST member that you've taken a punt on PPH, after your summary of unproven non-profitable companies, let alone a tech. But what the heck eh, nice to have a bit of a flutter from time to time, a few small % in a portfolio for a bit of fun never sent anyone to the poor house. BTW, the 100MA (EMA or SMA) is just one indicator of many, not one that I know of many who use it as 'the' deciding entry/exit indicator, for anything, let alone a tech startup/hi-growth, so maybe it would PAY to add a few confirmation indicators to your new found TA arsenal?

[winner69]

Though vehemently opposed to corporate welfare being given to a 1/2 billion company with rich shareholders whose execs drive around in flash cars with personalised plates ....suppose its OK in this case if I turn a blind eye to it ......or else I would only be a short term share holder.

[sb9]

.....then I've joined the party's with an initial stake today


Good on ya winner, welcome aboard have FAITH!!!

They do need all the help from Govt (Callaghan Fund) to be cash flow positive sooner than later...even the big guys get those grants, nothing wrong with that.

[percy]

[QUOTE=winner69;655423]Well

..

.....then I've joined the party's with an initial stake today

Following your bowling club mates.?

[winner69]

Good on ya winner, welcome aboard have FAITH!!!

They do need all the help from Govt (Callaghan Fund) to be cash flow positive sooner than later...even the big guys get those grants, nothing wrong with that.

....but the company has rich shareholders who should be funding that!!

[winner69]

[QUOTE=winner69;655423]Well

..

.....then I've joined the party's with an initial stake today

Following your bowling club mates.?

No my neighbours bowling club mates are after dividends .......and they would jinx Push ....if I haven't already

[percy]

[QUOTE=percy;655480]

No my neighbours bowling club mates are after dividends .......and they would jinx Push ....if I haven't already

You have let yourself down.
Your reputation is now on the line.
Looking to profit from "the faithfull" is a "doubtful" moral investment...............................lol.

ps.Redem your ways.Donate $100 to the bowling club.

[Beagle]

I know you like that 100EMA breakout, (or is it the 100SMA?) either way it broke out, but today turned away at the 200SMA, perfectly at $2.03. It is a bit surprising to me if people are watching/trading the MA's on a tech spec that hasn't made a profit yet and has a MC of $500mill (how may years earnings is that? Oh, there are no earnings, right), is burning heaps of cash in expenses, and sitting on a pile of cash 'for growth'. Actually, I'm probably as surprised as the next ST member that you've taken a punt on PPH, after your summary of unproven non-profitable companies, let alone a tech. But what the heck eh, nice to have a bit of a flutter from time to time, a few small % in a portfolio for a bit of fun never sent anyone to the poor house. BTW, the 100MA (EMA or SMA) is just one indicator of many, not one that I know of many who use it as 'the' deciding entry/exit indicator, for anything, let alone a tech startup/hi-growth, so maybe it would PAY to add a few confirmation indicators to your new found TA arsenal?

Its a small part of my portfolio mate. I decided as part of a new investment strategy for 2017 and beyond to allocate 5% of my portfolio to speculative investments. Speculative for me means anything that currently doesn't have EPS. One of the things I believe investors need to do at least on an annual basis is revise their asset allocation and market participation strategies.
If one is punting, (for want of a better description), you might as well back the horse that's growing at the fastest pace...remind me again how many years its taken XRO to become cash flow neutral ?
The hound is simply following his nose with this one, it was trending up nicely and depth on the buy side was very strong. Thank you for your suggestion about improving my TA skillset, its on the very long "To Do" list.

From a theological and philosophical viewpoint I have got my head around this one. I used to have some reservations about the whole preacher preaches a compelling message and then encourages people to give till it hurts and the whole giving through your cellphone thing, (hounds don't like cellphones as they invade his privacy), but the plain fact is people need a lot of encouragement to live a faith filled life, (people are naturally inert and naturally covert money), and with the widespread proliferation of cellphones anything that makes it easier for people to live by faith and be more generous is probably a good thing. The rapid growth of the company suggests church leaders around the world by and large feel the same way.

On another topic Its not a crime to drive a nice car folks. If you've "got a few quid" why not ? King Solomon was well blessed was he not !

Welcome on board Winner.
LOL Percy.

[Jinx]

[QUOTE=winner69;655482]

You have let yourself down.
Your reputation is now on the line.
Looking to profit from "the faithfull" is a "doubtful" moral investment...............................lol.

ps.Redem your ways.Donate $100 to the bowling club.

We've managed to get Roger and Winner on board! When will you jump in with the bowling club Percy?

[percy]

[QUOTE=percy;655489]

We've managed to get Roger and Winner on board! When will you jump in with the bowling club Percy?

When eps growth is higher than their PE.
A long time away as currently both are minus.!
eps -12.46 and PE - 16.05.
ps.
A friend of me let me know she had brought some PPH.The last "investment" she did on her own was PEB.!.lol.

[Jinx]

When eps growth is higher than their PE.
A long time away as currently both are minus.!
eps -12.46 and PE - 16.05.
ps.
A friend of me let me know she had brought some PPH.The last "investment" she did on her own was PEB.!.lol.

Does sound reasonable but I can see their PE shooting up to 20+ as they approach cash flow positive (my guess is closer to the middle of 2017). Hope to get you on board one day Percy!

[winner69]

[QUOTE=Jinx;655517]

When eps growth is higher than their PE.
A long time away as currently both are minus.!
eps -12.46 and PE - 16.05.
ps.
A friend of me let me know she had brought some PPH.The last "investment" she did on her own was PEB.!.lol.

Not an outrageous PE for a growth company

EPS growth was nearly 40% (half year)

So meets your criteria percy

[percy]

Does sound reasonable but I can see their PE shooting up to 20+ as they approach cash flow positive (my guess is closer to the middle of 2017). Hope to get you on board one day Percy!

Jinx I try to keep to companies I can understand.I seem to do well doing that.I miss a good deal of great opportunities,but do not suffer many loses.

[Jinx]

Jinx I try to keep to companies I can understand.I seem to do well doing that.I miss a good deal of great opportunities,but do not suffer many loses.

I'd never question your investment strategies! Clearly you've got a winning formula, I'm just looking for as much risk as possible why still not suffering too many loses :p

[percy]

I'd never question your investment strategies! Clearly you've got a winning formula, I'm just looking for as much risk as possible why still not suffering too many loses :p

I think you are on track,finding the more research you do the better the results.!

[winner69]

Averaging down already

Not a good start

Hope don't have to average down to $2.50 - would be totally overweight PPH if I to do that

At least a beaut day in Wellington today - no wind and mid 20's

[BlackPeter]

Averaging down already

Not a good start

Hope don't have to average down to $2.50 - would be totally overweight PPH if I to do that

At least a beaut day in Wellington today - no wind and mid 20's

Averaging down on high risk shares in a downtrend (note - they are still below MA200 ...)? Are you sure this is a "winning" strategy?

[winner69]

Averaging down on high risk shares in a downtrend (note - they are still below MA200 ...)? Are you sure this is a "winning" strategy?

It's going to $3.50 by Xmas so I am
Averaging down on high risk shares in a downtrend (note - they are still below MA200 ...)? Are you sure this is a "winning" strategy?

It's going to $3.50 by Xmas I'm told so no worries ...and it's heading to $1 billion ACMR


And with these sort of companies a 200MA is far too long - it's above both the 20MA and the 50MA so OK

[Baa_Baa]

Hope don't have to average down to $2.50

Did you mean $1.50?

[BlackPeter]

It's going to $3.50 by Xmas so I am

It's going to $3.50 by Xmas I'm told so no worries ...and it's heading to $1 billion ACMR



Any reason for your confidence of it going to $3.50? Would this be before or after the next CR?

It is just - this is basically a company producing one rather simple app ... and at $3.50 they would probably still make plenty of losses but have a market cap of more than $800 million. Need to collect lots of donations to earn at some stage their keep.

I know they operate in the faith industry, but still ... Jeez!

[winner69]

No.... I overheard two personal trainers and they said Push pay is the next big thing, $3.50 before Christmas is the hot rumor :D

See BP - $3.50 by Christmas they say

Probably just as good a guess as the guru analysts would cone up

And the world is a happy place at the moment eh

[h2so4]

Jinx I try to keep to companies I can understand.I seem to do well doing that.I miss a good deal of great opportunities,but do not suffer many loses.

Pleased to hear you are sticking to your investment strategy and morals percy. LOL!

[percy]

Pleased to hear you are sticking to your investment strategy and morals percy. LOL!

Have to,to remain "well positioned."..!!...lol.
Although it is being put under pressure by disclosure of the "alternative facts", that I own Estar [traded via the company],PAZ [unlisted market] and ALF on the NZX.
All three absolute gems.

[dodgy]

Have to,to remain "well positioned."..!!...lol.
Although it is being put under pressure by disclosure of the "alternative facts", that I own Estar [traded via the company],PAZ [unlisted market] and ALF on the NZX.
All three absolute gems.
Percy
Don't knock ALF, they have faced death in the face and are consolidated for progress. I hold quantity and are accumulating - 1-2 years should see something back.
dodgy

[percy]

Percy
Don't knock ALF, they have faced death in the face and are consolidated for progress. I hold quantity and are accumulating - 1-2 years should see something back.
dodgy

dodgy,
Not knocking them really.
Just between you and me,Estar and PAZ, have treated/and are treating me fantasically well,and I expect ALF will show me the same sort of outstanding returns.
Must say I think we are "well positioned."

[Pricey]

PPH just delivered its echurch summit. The company is really pressing the creative / technology aspect of church. https://twitter.com/search?q=%23echurchsummit

One review from Lauren Rebekah ‏@laurenrebekah89 on twitter: I go to lots of church conferences. @Pushpay just put on one of the best I've been too - every category was exceptional. #echurchsummit

[winner69]

PPH just delivered its echurch summit. The company is really pressing the creative / technology aspect of church. https://twitter.com/search?q=%23echurchsummit

One review from Lauren Rebekah ‏@laurenrebekah89 on twitter: I go to lots of church conferences. @Pushpay just put on one of the best I've been too - every category was exceptional. #echurchsummit

Wow - good stuff

On that timeline this gem of a tweet - When you're around the right people... "you're not spending your time, you're investing your time" - @JohnCMaxwell #echurchsummit

That's why I come to Sharetrader

[sb9]

Wow - good stuff

On that timeline this gem of a tweet - When you're around the right people... "you're not spending your time, you're investing your time" - @JohnCMaxwell #echurchsummit

That's why I come to Sharetrader

All great stuff eh winner...could be the reason why someone accumulated big the other day.

[Leftfield]

PPH just delivered its echurch summit. The company is really pressing the creative / technology aspect of church. https://twitter.com/search?q=%23echurchsummit

One review from Lauren Rebekah ‏@laurenrebekah89 on twitter: I go to lots of church conferences. @Pushpay just put on one of the best I've been too - every category was exceptional. #echurchsummit

Thanks for posting Pricey

I dug a little deeper and found these gems for understanding PPH


http://nilssmith.com/blog/thank-you-pushpay

http://echurch.com

[winner69]

Share price not looking good - even though one of Hoop's charts on another thread mentions $2.43 somewhere

Will need to average down to fill the quota - but heck even TIL isn't falling as fast as PPH has the last few days

Hope those personal trainers were right

[Beagle]

Have a little FAITH Winner...early days mate :)

Big shareholder in PPH many of us know went to that echurch summit and I gather he was well pleased with how it all went.

[D. Fender]

Share price not looking good - even though one of Hoop's charts on another thread mentions $2.43 somewhere

Will need to average down to fill the quota - but heck even TIL isn't falling as fast as PPH has the last few days

Hope those personal trainers were right

Unless I'm a complete idiot (always a possibility), PPH share price (on the NZX) is up from $1.30 to $1.90 since the start of 2017 (a 46% increase) while TIL (NZX) is down from $3.00 to $2.45 (an 18% drop). This week, TIL is down -5.8% and PPH is up +7.3%. Not sure what there is to worry about with those numbers...

[BlackPeter]

Unless I'm a complete idiot (always a possibility), PPH share price (on the NZX) is up from $1.30 to $1.90 since the start of 2017 (a 46% increase) while TIL (NZX) is down from $3.00 to $2.45 (an 18% drop). This week, TIL is down -5.8% and PPH is up +7.3%. Not sure what there is to worry about with those numbers...

Hmm - in a way you are right, but than - most stocks look at current good compared to TIL. Always depends on the standard.

If you want to see a successful stock, look at (e.g.) CDL or MCK - they just come to mind because they reported today, there are many others.

I think I raised my fundamental concerns with PPH often enough - but what some TA people might concern is that the SP just bounced at the MA200 - downwards. While winner thinks that the MA200 is too slow for this stock (and he might be right) - I still would be worried, if I would hold them (which I don't).

[winner69]

Have a little FAITH Winner...early days mate :)

Big shareholder in PPH many of us know went to that echurch summit and I gather he was well pleased with how it all went.

Faith needed eh

A couple of years ago I must have been the only punter on the planet that had lost money on Heartland when I bought a decent holding on a breakout of a long term trading range and it quickly went back to that trading range

In a matter of days I was down 6% ........but Percy said have faith winner and hang in there. I did and. Week later it was all honky dory

So must have faith in Push

[winner69]

How does the Push thingie work in churches - is it an electronic collection plate or something.

Any churches in NZ using it?

[Beagle]

How does the Push thingie work in churches - is it an electronic collection plate or something.

Any churches in NZ using it?

http://www.churchunlimited.co.nz/online-giving/ Was speaking to one of the board members today. Outreach is going extremely well and the balance sheet is in good shape.

Pastor usually mentions methods of giving during the offering talk, cash, cheque, credit card, EFTPOS, AP and usually remembers to mention Pushpay. Young ones in particular lap it up, they're all into their cellphones.

If you click on the resources tab you'll see the youtube channel. Good message on December 18 2016 about the bread of life :) Man shall not live by bread alone....e.t.c.

[percy]

Faith needed eh

A couple of years ago I must have been the only punter on the planet that had lost money on Heartland when I bought a decent holding on a breakout of a long term trading range and it quickly went back to that trading range

In a matter of days I was down 6% ........but Percy said have faith winner and hang in there. I did and. Week later it was all honky dory

So must have faith in Push

Travel with care my son.
One has received my "blessing" while the other requires you to pay your penance for sinning,before Karma can be restored.
Your friends at the bowling club may accept your $100 via a Plus Play device.

[Baa_Baa]

Share price not looking good - even though one of Hoop's charts on another thread mentions $2.43 somewhere

Will need to average down to fill the quota - but heck even TIL isn't falling as fast as PPH has the last few days

Hope those personal trainers were right

My rather conservative weekly chart triggered a buy signal this week, the first since the $1.29 low, crossing and closing above the 10/14 EMA's and above the shorter term down trend line. But a bit disappointing close for the week, albeit still above the trigger. No worries, no need to sell unless the faithful lose their faith and stop giving eh?.

Or Apple, or Google, or Amazon .. or any number of alternative mass market mobile payment methods eat their lunch, which seems inevitable, though who knows in what timeframe?

[Pricey]

This point gets thrown around a lot, that PPH will be fine until Apple, Google or Amazon eats into their business. But how do people think this would occur practically? I have Apple Pay on my phone and use it pretty much for everything: the bus, a coffee, clothes. Its currently tag-on tag-off, which could be used via a Kiosk at a church - something that PPH has already implemented and provides the infrastructure for.

I also have three different banking apps on my phone: Barclays, Metrobank and Monzo (London-based). I think the market is so inefficient that it can justify a plurality of interrelated products.

Chasing profit and applicability outside of churches will be the difficult task, that's when I see my exit.

[winner69]

Suppose this Push thingie makes peculating the collection plate harder?

That would ea good selling point to the churches

[winner69]

Using a mobile phone in church seems rather sacrilege ........to old fuddy duddies like me

At least an excuse to read the latest posts on Push during the offering under the guise of giving eh

[kizame]

Using a mobile phone in church seems rather sacrilege ........to old fuddy duddies like me

At least an excuse to read the latest posts on Push during the offering under the guise of giving eh

Thats why its an app,you can give anytime anywhere,you don't have to actually be in church to connect to the internet...hahaha

[Jinx]

As I've said in previous posts those that are church enthusiasts must be close to the most anti-change group of people... If pushpay can continue its mission to get a market hold across the U.S faith sector their custom echurch apps (this to me seems like the biggest area for future growth) will continue to grow and people will be unwilling to change to other platforms.

Any shareholder or potential shareholder should look through http://echurch.com/product-overview/total-engagement/
Around half way down the page there is an app layout for Cross & Crown church, that looks like such a good design and something that the pastors of these churches will be chomping at the bit to use.

Their goal is to have $72million ACMR by the end of 2017, last quarter they had $42.3m. Last quarter they also increased their ACMR by 7 million, the quarter previous by 6 million. Based on this I'm willing to bet their next quarter update has increased ACMR by roughly $8 million as this is enough easily reach their target before then end of 2017. If they get above an increase of $9 million ACMR next update then we will most likely see break even before the end of Q3.

Edit - Note it's important to look at the service both Xero and Pushpay offer. These boards have started with a problem that needs solving and then got large numbers of people on board, then started to become profitable, this is one reason why both Xero and Pushpay have such high market caps.

[winner69]

Trying to learn stuff here

I take it that the 6,143 customers Push has are those who use Push software/app to collect cash - mainly churches to make it easy for the congregation to donate.

On the right path?

Impressive looking charts on their updates - a billion (didn't somebody mention thatvasa target) is not far away at this exponential growth..

[percy]

My thoughts turn to Mark Twain's quote;
"It's better to keep your mouth shut and appear stupid than open it and remove all doubt."
lol.
Safer to do your research before you buy.!

[winner69]

My thoughts turn to Mark Twain's quote;
"It's better to keep your mouth shut and appear stupid than open it and remove all doubt."
lol.
Safer to do your research before you buy.!

That's mean Percy

Some also say 'too much knowledge is a bad thing' or 'too much knowledge maketh fool'

Sometimes you don't need to do much research ....just looking at a few charts as to how ACMR is going and hearing what the believers say is enough 'research'

Now I'm involved just trying to understand what they do ....but that might bea stupid thing to do.

[silverblizzard888]

Obviously you cool kids aren't wearing the latest rose tinted glasses on the beach with your crystal balls!^^

[percy]

W69.
Just enjoying your floundering about.
Meant as fun rather than being mean.

[winner69]

W69.
Just enjoying your floundering about.
Meant as fun rather than being mean.

Thought so

But Push will be OK - plenty of excitment around it

I'm boot floundering - I have a plan

Maybe better not do any more research elsemight change my mind - ignorance is bliss eh

[kizame]

Thought so

But Push will be OK - plenty of excitment around it

I'm boot floundering - I have a plan

Maybe better not do any more research elsemight change my mind - ignorance is bliss eh

Oh my gosh. If you look at the charts thats fine,then depends where you buy.
Now if you read their updates they explain everything,you can get these updates via your email. It's not hard to be bullish on this company when you read the numbers.
As I have said in the past,this imop is the new DIL but with way more potential,it just depends how far it gets before it is bought.

[percy]

Thought so

But Push will be OK - plenty of excitment around it

I'm boot floundering - I have a plan

Maybe better not do any more research elsemight change my mind - ignorance is bliss eh
Yeah right,so I am told.!!..lol.

[BlackPeter]

Just wondering - how much do they need to grow their ACMR of 42.3m to be able to pay not just for 341 staff (well, probably more by now) a handful of really big fat company cars for the execs plus lots of first class travel (for sure you can't travel cattle class when selling to the faithful ...), but to still keep some (hopefully at some stage positive) earnings which accrue to a NPV of NZD $500m (current market cap) within less than biblical time frames? Anybody did these numbers? What are the assumptions in terms of number of customers, monthly revenue per customer, and useful life of the app before the next big fad goes through the faith industry (who knows - maybe move towards telepathie based payment systems ;) or pushing cash might turn into a standard feature of Android 6 or 7?).

I think there is no doubt that PPH will earlier or later reach their XRO, WYN, DIL, PEB or GEN peak ... and sure, some of these companies do still exist (though somewhat downtrodden ...). Not sure I am looking forward to the discussions on the downhill slope ...

Discl: Don't ...

[King1212]

Just wondering - how much do they need to grow their ACMR of 42.3m to be able to pay not just for 341 staff (well, probably more by now) a handful of really big fat company cars for the execs plus lots of first class travel (for sure you can't travel cattle class when selling to the faithful ...), but to still keep some (hopefully at some stage positive) earnings which accrue to a NPV of NZD $500m (current market cap) within less than biblical time frames? Anybody did these numbers? What are the assumptions in terms of number of customers, monthly revenue per customer, and useful life of the app before the next big fad goes through the faith industry (who knows - maybe move towards telepathie based payment systems ;) or pushing cash might turn into a standard feature of Android 6 or 7?).

I think there is no doubt that PPH will earlier or later reach their XRO, WYN, DIL, PEB or GEN peak ... and sure, some of these companies do still exist (though somewhat downtrodden ...). Not sure I am looking forward to the discussions on the downhill slope ...

Discl: Don't ...

it will get there...just matter of time...just sold out...got in couple weeks after oz IPO...then drifted to extremely low....decided to sell for small profit...the sp is on down trend again..gosh....the sp up n down so fast...

[percy]

it will get there...just matter of time...just sold out...got in couple weeks after oz IPO...then drifted to extremely low....decided to sell for small profit...the sp is on down trend again..gosh....the sp up n down so fast...

Like Whore's drawers?

[King1212]

Like Whore's drawers?


Good one percy:D...yes....slighly better n tighter....

[Baa_Baa]

This point gets thrown around a lot, that PPH will be fine until Apple, Google or Amazon eats into their business. But how do people think this would occur practically? I have Apple Pay on my phone and use it pretty much for everything: the bus, a coffee, clothes. Its currently tag-on tag-off, which could be used via a Kiosk at a church - something that PPH has already implemented and provides the infrastructure for.

I also have three different banking apps on my phone: Barclays, Metrobank and Monzo (London-based). I think the market is so inefficient that it can justify a plurality of interrelated products.

Chasing profit and applicability outside of churches will be the difficult task, that's when I see my exit.

Good question. Pushpay is basically a 'merchant acquiring' business (in transactional banking terms) that when acquired, they clip the faithfuls' transaction payments via the App.

The company has to 'sign up' a church (acquire the merchant) and plug them into closed transaction system, ergo merchant acquiring overheads (sales) and the faithfuls' inability to use the App or payment system outside of the church. The merchant, ergo the church, then encourages their faithful to use the App to make payments. The App which all the fuss is made of is merely the transaction initiator, in as much as payments are concerned. I do note the eChurch extensions which is very clever, to lock in the faithful to the wider church system, which could be very sticky, surrounding the payments business with layers of other service value.

So what makes the PushPay model vulnerable is the overheads to acquiring merchants, ergo the sales effort, in as much as every bank requires specialised sales people to acquire merchants. The closed payment network is also a vulnerability as the App cannot be used outside of any of the merchants PushPay has acquired, which is a minuscule proportion of the merchants that MasterCard, Visa, etc have already acquired.

ApplePay et al bypass the merchant acquiring process completely. They have an App that one can wave at an already acquired merchant, for any goods or services, and the punters credit/debit card is debited the payment and transaction fee. This model is transportable across the humungous global merchant network already established and accepting numerous credit/debit cards.

It is a small step for a church to accept ApplePay 'as well as PushPay', or as an alternative, or any of the other payment Apps, without the overheads of acquiring the merchants (churches), hence bypassing the costs of acquiring or the limitations of a closed payments network. They'll say, thanks PushPay for opening up the church payments market, now here's an alternative payment method that your faithful can 'choose to use'. The same as they use in their everyday purchasing transactions. Choice is the enemy.

Cudos to PushPay for seeing this though, which I believe their response is to envelope the church experience, binding the church engagement and services into the App and diminishing the reliance on just payments. Apple et al will never do that.

Still, it doesn't prevent PushPays merchant acquiring, closed payment network and transactional model (revenue stream) being vulnerable to medium to longer term competition from generic App based payments providers.

[Pricey]

Appreciate your thoughts. I agree, Pushpay needs to push to create a sticky product - a closed transaction system - by enveloping payments within a wider church-based service, as Jinx also earlier pointed out. I just hope this current offering isn’t cost inhibitive for churches, as it would provide the most value.


As I understand it, in relation to Apple Pay as an example, the scenario you pointed out below doesn’t impact PPH at all. Pushpay acquires the Merchant by creating the bespoke app, setting up the church behind the scenes and providing kiosks. Pay wave will inevitably be offered at the Kiosks, but PPH clips the ticket on all transactions that get processed via the Kiosk - the volume aspect of ARPM. Perhaps it has to pay Apple a fee as it does Visa/Mastercard.


This is why i’ll reconsider PPH when it tries to push their product outside of the church system, where there is real choice of other generic payment options.

*I unapologetically decided to use the word Push :D

[winner69]

Push looking good on this chart from Clare Capital who have plotted NZ techs against the 40% rule

Already in green when he did this chart - be in much higher position now - a star

No worries

[winner69]

and another chart from Clare which takes into account share price (ie EV)

Not overvalued by the looks of it

Sorry about the squiggly circle but I thought I had better hightlight Push being amongst all these AU and NZ companies

[percy]

No surprises there as I note from previous Clare Capital research, that it was commissioned by.....
yes you guessed it.......PPH.

[winner69]

No surprises there as I note from previous Clare Capital research, that it was commissioned by.....
yes you guessed it.......PPH.

They did too
http://clarecapital.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Clare-Capital-Pushpay-Holdings-Limited-1m-to-10m-ACMR-in-less-than-5-quarters.pdf

Push seem to be doing (heaps) better than Clare projected nearly 2 years ago - good eh

Bit unfair tainting Clare about those charts mate - I think pushing/touting Push was the last thing on his mind when he does regular updates of this analysis. The charts are just comparing where a lot of Tech companies stand relative to others - nothing else. IT WAS ME DOING THE TOUTING.