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Schrodinger
11-01-2014, 09:25 AM
Great article by Brian on the past history of the NZX and it's reliance upon low capital gains dividend stocks.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11184443

What was of particular interest is the 35% lower mark reached in 2013 than the high in 87. This has had huge consequences for NZ since the 80s due to people throwing their money into the property market and distorting our economic system.

Australia is interesting because they were hit hard by the crash but recovered quickly and through positive initiatives such as the super fund have a more balanced and vibrant economy.

I also note that Singapore in this time is powering along and several years back left us behind in economic performance and prosperity with sound economic policies.

What is also interesting is the comment about the NZX index being ahead of the Dow in the 80s and is now only worth 20% of the 2013 Dow figure.

Completely agree with his assumption we need to use capital indices like other overseas markets. We need good quality capital growth orientated stocks to readdress this silly reliance on rental properties chewing up all of the capital that could be used to return us back to the top of the OECD rankings.

Very interesting to see in numbers our 30 year hangover from the 87 crash.

MAC
11-01-2014, 10:13 AM
I smile a little when people post on this forum about exuberance as I think back to 1987. My flatmates were buying Brierley shares on their credit cards like it was a pissing contest, at that time it took a quite a good sell for young folk to even get a credit card from a mainstream bank.

Luxury cars were appearing in large numbers in NZ for the first time and IMO this was a time of cultural shift in NZ, a shimmy away from being satisfied with community equality to greater emphasis being placed on individual competitive wealth. When the crash occurred middle NZ with a recently formed indulgence for the share market got burned badly.

Aside from some tech stock behaviours GEO, DIL, XRO, WYN we are very far far away from what I would call 1987 type exuberance. Still though, so many retail investors got burnt in 1987 so badly that some still seem to retain hesitancy to this day.

In4a$
11-01-2014, 11:53 AM
Great article by Brian on the past history of the NZX and it's reliance upon low capital gains dividend stocks.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11184443

What was of particular interest is the 35% lower mark reached in 2013 than the high in 87. This has had huge consequences for NZ since the 80s due to people throwing their money into the property market and distorting our economic system.

Australia is interesting because they were hit hard by the crash but recovered quickly and through positive initiatives such as the super fund have a more balanced and vibrant economy.

I also note that Singapore in this time is powering along and several years back left us behind in economic performance and prosperity with sound economic policies.

What is also interesting is the comment about the NZX index being ahead of the Dow in the 80s and is now only worth 20% of the 2013 Dow figure.

Completely agree with his assumption we need to use capital indices like other overseas markets. We need good quality capital growth orientated stocks to readdress this silly reliance on rental properties chewing up all of the capital that could be used to return us back to the top of the OECD rankings.

Very interesting to see in numbers our 30 year hangover from the 87 crash.

Well said Schrodinger, couldnt agree more

Under Surveillance
11-01-2014, 12:14 PM
I thought the Gaynor article worthy of thought, though it repeats themes he's hammered for quite some time.

Interestingly, Gaynor compares the NZX capital index movement since the bursting of the 1987 bubble with the DOW. He doesn't mention that the NASDAC composite at 4176.66 today remains 18.7% below its all time (bubble) high of 5132.52 on 10 March 2000.

skid
11-01-2014, 12:37 PM
Thanx Brian --Now if you could just tell me which companies are going to be the big "growth'' shares for 2014