Is This Bull Cycle Over ?

[winner69]

I would suggest the trajectory is down before heading back up & I'm referring more to the economy than just stocks.
The NZD will help significantly I agree, but that to will take time to filter through the economy.
Its obviously not just the NZD that's falling either so there is plenty of competition for those investment dollars and at the moment any foreign investment is losing money until the Kiwi bottoms.
Interest rate can & will impact the housing market, however it doesn't impact the foreign investor who is either borrowing offshore or paying cash I the main.

I'm not so down on the economy as you daytr

On iPredict took GDP >1% in June quarter at 11 cents ..... a $1 for 11 cents ....great odds

Also having a go at solid GDP growth for September quarter as well

[Daytr]

Winner I'm not hugely negative on it either, but I do think we are going to see minimal or even perhaps flat to negative growth in the near future.
The dollar & lower interest rates will certainly cushion the risk of all out recession which I think is unlikely with the current level of immigration, CHC rebuild still going on & National's road building program.

[xafalcon]

The main economic risk I see is that New Zealanders are a generally negative population, and have previously talked the economy into recession. The press feeds off this, running a disproportionate number of stories of doom & gloom, layoffs, potential external shocks etc. This could translate into a "manufactured recession" if too many people start believing the twisted media portrayed picture of the NZ economy.

Economic fundamentals mean nothing if they are not believed. Perception is king.

[winner69]

Winner I'm not hugely negative on it either, but I do think we are going to see minimal or even perhaps flat to negative growth in the near future.
The dollar & lower interest rates will certainly cushion the risk of all out recession which I think is unlikely with the current level of immigration, CHC rebuild still going on & National's road building program.

Good stuff daytr

As I see it

1- Impact of last few interest cuts starting to have a favourable impact. There is always quite a lag.
2- Lower $ helping exporting manufacturers who say they should get busier
3-New residential construction still growing. 25k annual consents now and several forecasts for this to go to 30k a year in 2016/17
4- This bought on by lower mortgage rates and access to Kiwisaver ...and to some extent govt initiatives.
5- Numbers would be increasing faster if govt/local bodies would pull finger
6- Commercial construction pretty buoyant and Chch really only just starting.
Construction activity is one of the key drivers of GDP growth, even more than primary industries
7- Dairy is only a part of the primary industries component, the rest of it going gangbusters as some say on sharetrader. Overall pretty reasonable?
8- Consumers seem to pretty happy at the moment.


That'll do for now. Agree some headwinds but positives far outweigh the negatives I reckon

Agree with falcon, we are being talked into a recession by bank economists with a myopic view of the world and the press love it. Wonder what the banks motivation is?

[Beagle]

Good stuff daytr

As I see it

1- Impact of last few interest cuts starting to have a favourable impact. There is always quite a lag. One OCR cut that's only just happened, hardly even been noticed by consumers due to rising fuel prices
2- Lower $ helping exporting manufacturers who say they should get busier Only just happened, most exporters will be not enjoying the forward cover they currently have
3-New residential construction still growing. 25k annual consents now and several forecasts for this to go to 30k a year in 2016/17Agree but this is mainly an Auckland and Chch thing
4- This bought on by lower mortgage rates and access to Kiwisaver ...and to some extent govt initiatives.Pass
5- Numbers would be increasing faster if govt/local bodies would pull fingerWastage is endemic, efficiencies is a word that's completely absent from the language at any local council
6- Commercial construction pretty buoyant and Chch really only just starting.That'll take years to slowly grind its way up, its depressing, been there lately ? and seen how this is so slow its truly shocking
Construction activity is one of the key drivers of GDP growth, even more than primary industries
7- Dairy is only a part of the primary industries component, the rest of it going gangbusters as some say on sharetrader. Overall pretty reasonable?Dairy is 20% of exports
8- Consumers seem to pretty happy at the moment. Consumer confidence survey out yesterday and confidence at multi year lows, likewise for a recent business confidence survey out recently


That'll do for now. Agree some headwinds but positives far outweigh the negatives I reckon

Agree with falcon, we are being talked into a recession by bank economists with a myopic view of the world and the press love it. Wonder what the banks motivation is?

Isn't it amazing that depending on your perspective the glass can be half full or half empty. Where can I have a bet that the Sept GDP number will be negative, any idea's ? Is there a quinella bet for a June and Sept negative number ?
Those of you thinking about cleaning your glasses because you are struggling to see any light at the end of the dairy collapse tunnell needn't bother, there is no light, almost unbelievably this looks like getting dramatically more ugly than it already is, the futures prices are an absolute shocker http://www.nzherald.co.nz/economy/news/article.cfm?c_id=34&objectid=11482767&utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Saturday+18 +July+2015
40 cents to the American dollar anyone ? Buy Exporters other than dairy

[vin]

The current downturn in dairy will be offset in part by other industries (esp meat & tourism, being NZ's #5 & #2 industries respectively) doing even better at US$0.65 than they were at US$0.88, and in part by the lower exchange rate improving NZ$ returns for dairy, logs, wool, kiwifruit and all the other commodity exports the world buys from NZ.

The NZ economy is fundamentally sound. The only problem has been the RBNZ consistently mis-reading inflation while trying to manipulate the Auckland housing market at the same time, which led them to incorrectly raise interest rates 4 times last year. They should have stuck to their mandate, which is focused on an inflation target of 2%. Monetary policy could never resolve a housing supply shortage, only builders etc can do that.

RBNZ will now be forced to address this failure promptly and decisively, but will probably get it wrong this time on the upper control limit as imported tradeable inflation kicks in from the lower exchange rate.

No matter. By the time the RBNZ checks, re-checks, then confirms the inflation situation, dairy will be back in favour. The NZ$ will appreciate, foreign investors will get forex gains and pile more money into NZX thereby pumping share prices higher.

I believe the bull market has plenty of legs left yet, the road is just getting a little bumpier

Interesting thoughts, some great points. Cheers

[winner69]

Isn't it amazing that depending on your perspective the glass can be half full or half empty. Where can I have a bet that the Sept GDP number will be negative, any idea's ? Is there a quinella bet for a June and Sept negative number ?
Those of you thinking about cleaning your glasses because you are struggling to see any light at the end of the dairy collapse tunnell needn't bother, there is no light, almost unbelievably this looks like getting dramatically more ugly than it already is, the futures prices are an absolute shocker http://www.nzherald.co.nz/economy/news/article.cfm?c_id=34&objectid=11482767&utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Saturday+18 +July+2015
40 cents to the American dollar anyone ? Buy Exporters other than dairy

Go to https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=contract_detail&contract=GDP.SEP15.GT00

Punters saying 95% chance of GDP being positive

You can SHORT this .....so if you reckon negative number that's about 20 to 1 bet for

As the iPredict says 'Put your money where your mouth is'

[Nasi Goreng]

So Roger, 80% of our exports are non dairy and if prices in those markets stay consistent in USD, we will be facing boom times with our lower $ right?

As you point out, some will have already hedged but others will be unhedged. I think most economists have been expecting kiwi to fall for quite some time so it would surprise me if a lot of contracts are locked in at around 75c or higher.

[BlackPeter]

Isn't it amazing that depending on your perspective the glass can be half full or half empty. Where can I have a bet that the Sept GDP number will be negative, any idea's ? Is there a quinella bet for a June and Sept negative number ?

Hi Roger, appreciate your cautious views certainly supported by the things you see on a daily basis in your work as accountant. On the other hand ... while you are data wise at the coal face, all you see as accountant is what is in the rear mirror.

I agree - dairy (particularly Fonterra) looks depressing, but this is not just the international market, this is just what you get if you put a huge bunch of self-serving greedy managers in control of a national quasi monopoly producing boring staples everybody else can produce as well (and by now cheaper). However - as others already pointed out - most other agricultural ventures look currently quite promising ... no need to despair.

What we haven't really discussed so far is the immense benefit of the lower dollar to the manufacturing (export) industry. I used to work for one of our big exporters and know how painful the expensive NZ$ was. Sure - the more cautious companies used to hedge existing orders (i.e. won't get immediate relief from the dropping dollar), but all will benefit from it for any new order. So - you might be right, there is some delay - and maybe we get one or two negative quarters (though I doubt it), but over the mid term you will see lots of smiling faces in the board rooms of SKL, MVN, FPH, GTK, ERD, and many others (not to forget your AIR which just got another two shots in the arm: 1) lower dollar = more NZ tourists plus 2) dropping oil prices and the Iran deal promising to keep them low for a long time - meaning competitive air fares). Even the likes of WYN, OHE, PEB and XRO should find it easier with the lower NZ dollar to move into a cash flow positive position (if & when they so desire ...).

I can't help but being optimistic ... hey, and it is much more fun as well ...

discl: hold some of the mentioned stocks

[winner69]

Agriculture, forestry, and fishing is 8.8% of GDP (annual March 2015)

Dairy probably ~3%-4% of GDP (figures touted by the industry). All the positives I mentioned will offset any collapse in dairy.

Furthermore there is stuff all correlation (slightly negative) between annual changes in dairy prices and GDP

[Beagle]

So Roger, 80% of our exports are non dairy and if prices in those markets stay consistent in USD, we will be facing boom times with our lower $ right?

As you point out, some will have already hedged but others will be unhedged. I think most economists have been expecting kiwi to fall for quite some time so it would surprise me if a lot of contracts are locked in at around 75c or higher.

Tourism one of the biggest and will probably be unchanged although over time obviously a lower dollar makes it cheaper and more attractive for tourists to come here so there will undoubtedly be some flow through benefit in 2016.


Hi Roger, appreciate your cautious views certainly supported by the things you see on a daily basis in your work as accountant. On the other hand ... while you are data wise at the coal face, all you see as accountant is what is in the rear mirror.

I agree - dairy (particularly Fonterra) looks depressing, but this is not just the international market, this is just what you get if you put a huge bunch of self-serving greedy managers in control of a national quasi monopoly producing boring staples everybody else can produce as well (and by now cheaper). However - as others already pointed out - most other agricultural ventures look currently quite promising ... no need to despair.

What we haven't really discussed so far is the immense benefit of the lower dollar to the manufacturing (export) industry. I used to work for one of our big exporters and know how painful the expensive NZ$ was. Sure - the more cautious companies used to hedge existing orders (i.e. won't get immediate relief from the dropping dollar), but all will benefit from it for any new order. So - you might be right, there is some delay - and maybe we get one or two negative quarters (though I doubt it), but over the mid term you will see lots of smiling faces in the board rooms of SKL, MVN, FPH, GTK, ERD, and many others (not to forget your AIR which just got another two shots in the arm: 1) lower dollar = more NZ tourists plus 2) dropping oil prices and the Iran deal promising to keep them low for a long time - meaning competitive air fares). Even the likes of WYN, OHE, PEB and XRO should find it easier with the lower NZ dollar to move into a cash flow positive position (if & when they so desire ...).

I can't help but being optimistic ... hey, and it is much more fun as well ...

discl: hold some of the mentioned stocks

I'm definitely not a by the book look at historical figures man BP, always trying to look around the corner or over the horizon, pick whichever metaphor you like.
I agree the lower dollar will be good for exporters and expect meaningful benefits to accrue in 2016...most major exporters will need to work through their unfavourable hedging this year and part of next, IMO.
I'm looking to add to exporter positions, won't mention names at this stage. Currency a mixed blessing for AIR - probably something that's more relevant to discuss on AIR's thread.
Accountants are intrinsically realistic in their outlook, its in our training and leads to fewer disappointments :)

Winner - Thanks, I think I will have a little flutter on the Sept GDP number.

[xafalcon]

There simply won't be much if any further significant collapse in dairy, it is already way overdone. Selling way below the level at which manufacturers will reformulate their products to make use of lower protein and fat prices, by substituting dairy for other sources

It is the combination of dairy's long wind-up and wind-down time, the high dairy price in 2013, and the removal of EU quota's that has produced the current supply-side effect, and the combination of the Russian dairy ban, China overstock, the relatively weak global economy and increased domestic (non-NZ) production which has effected the demand side. This is why it has been described as the "perfect storm" - so many individual contributors coming together at the same time caused this

Futures mean nothing, except what someone is prepared to pay, right now, for a parcel of dairy at some fixed point in the future. It does not dictate future non-contracted sales prices.

Nobody has been able to predict dairy payouts with certainty in many years - I looked back over Fonterra's opening v's final payout over the past 6 or so years and found little correlation. Being the worlds largest traded dairy commodity producer, they should have the best handle on this, bar nobody. But this is the reality of world traded commodities, they go through generally unpredictable cycles.

But the fundamentals are that NZ is still the worlds most efficient lowest cost reputable "main stream" producer of dairy commodity products. If our industry is hurting, how do you think dairy exporters in other countries are feeling? What do you think their response will be? But this takes time, typically about 2-3 years

[percy]

I spoke to a Christchurch manufactuer/exporter yesterday.The past four years have been really tough for him.Just surviving the earthquakes was a major challenge.Had to truck thousands of gallons of water in from Kaiapoi every day.Put showers in, so his staff who had no showers at home ,could a least have shower at work.Then trying to get consents for his new factory,from the ChCh City council near drove him to despair .All the time the NZ $ has made profitability near impossible.
Yesterday I thought he was full of laughing gas; the $,the $,the $.Could not get him off the phone as he was so excited.Finally light at the end of a very long dark tunnel.
He also said he felt the $ would be great for the wine industry.

[axe]

I spoke to a Christchurch manufactuer/exporter yesterday.The past four years have been really tough for him.Just surviving the earthquakes was a major challenge.Had to truck thousands of gallons of water in from Kaiapoi every day.Put showers in, so his staff who had no showers at home ,could a least have shower at work.Then trying to get consents for his new factory,from the ChCh City council near drove him to despair .All the time the NZ $ has made profitability near impossible.
Yesterday I thought he was full of laughing gas; the $,the $,the $.Could not get him off the phone as he was so excited.Finally light at the end of a very long dark tunnel.
He also said he felt the $ would be great for the wine industry.

Happy currency times for him = he plans to consume plenty of wine? :)

[winner69]

March quarterly GDP was reported at 0.2%

Looking at what contributed to this i see that the three notoriously volatile components of stockbuilding, capital spending and primary production all made negative contributions. unusual for all three To make sizeable negative contributions at the same time.

I would expect that stockbuilding and capital spending to provide decent positive contributions in June and September quarters.

So could say that March quarter was 'randomly' low - meaning June and September quarters could be 'randomly' high

Don't fancy your chances with your flutter on negative GDP in June or September. After that the stimulus provided by unnecessary OCR cuts and the low $ the economy will be on fire in 2016 and 2017

[Beagle]

I spoke to a Christchurch manufactuer/exporter yesterday.The past four years have been really tough for him.Just surviving the earthquakes was a major challenge.Had to truck thousands of gallons of water in from Kaiapoi every day.Put showers in, so his staff who had no showers at home ,could a least have shower at work.Then trying to get consents for his new factory,from the ChCh City council near drove him to despair .All the time the NZ $ has made profitability near impossible.
Yesterday I thought he was full of laughing gas; the $,the $,the $.Could not get him off the phone as he was so excited.Finally light at the end of a very long dark tunnel.
He also said he felt the $ would be great for the wine industry.

That's good to hear mate. Any exporter that's been able to survive 88 cents U.S. must be licking their chops at the current rate let alone the prospect of further declines in the Kiwi.
Speaking of dramatic drops..anyone noticed the U.K. pound rate moved at lightening speed all the way down from 50p to circa 41p ? That parallel imported Jaguar imported from the U.K. when the currency was 50p will never be cheaper... Hmmm. What's the bet the retailers are run off their feet selling giant sized televisions at present....they'll be going up heaps soon. Time for a spend-up to help the economy along ?

[Beagle]

March quarterly GDP was reported at 0.2%

Looking at what contributed to this i see that the three notoriously volatile components of stockbuilding, capital spending and primary production all made negative contributions. unusual for all three To make sizeable negative contributions at the same time.

I would expect that stockbuilding and capital spending to provide decent positive contributions in June and September quarters.

So could say that March quarter was 'randomly' low - meaning June and September quarters could be 'randomly' high

Don't fancy your chances with your flutter on negative GDP in June or September. After that the stimulus provided by unnecessary OCR cuts and the low $ the economy will be on fire in 2016 and 2017

Time will tell. Don't forget the multiplier effect that the collapse in dairy prices has on small town regional N.Z. business's. Every dairy farmer's chequebook in the country will be sitting unused in the bottom drawer, for anything other than the absolute bare essentials for a very long time to come IMO. Pretty small beer that ipredict website...disappointed, I was looking for a larger bet. $5,000 at 20 to 1 odds would "get the blood pumping" on a negative Sep GDP number wouldn't it :D

[Beagle]

Futures mean nothing, except what someone is prepared to pay, right now, for a parcel of dairy at some fixed point in the future. It does not dictate future non-contracted sales prices.



http://www.nzherald.co.nz/economy/news/article.cfm?c_id=34&objectid=11482767&utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Saturday+18 +July+2015
Might mean nothing to you but they've been a very good indicator of the recent collapse in dairy prices and this is an ominous sign for the next GDT auction IMO.

More evidence of a slowing economy
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/economy/news/article.cfm?c_id=34&objectid=11482709

and even more
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/economy/news/article.cfm?c_id=34&objectid=11482268
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/economy/news/article.cfm?c_id=34&objectid=11482287

Do we see 50 cents U.S in 2016 or OMG maybe even a 4 handle in due course ? Exporters be dancing in the streets then !!

[winner69]

That's good to hear mate. Any exporter that's been able to survive 88 cents U.S. must be licking their chops at the current rate let alone the prospect of further declines in the Kiwi.
Speaking of dramatic drops..anyone noticed the U.K. pound rate moved at lightening speed all the way down from 50p to circa 41p ? That parallel imported Jaguar imported from the U.K. when the currency was 50p will never be cheaper... Hmmm. What's the bet the retailers are run off their feet selling giant sized televisions at present....they'll be going up heaps soon. Time for a spend-up to help the economy along ?

Rampant inflation next year then Roger

What will your Mr Wheeler do then?

[Beagle]

He's not mine...creative accounting...we "normalise" (our favourite word right) :D inflation for the drop in the currency.
Tell you what...there will be a few punters looking to lock in the price of the new model Mustang car that arrives here very late 2015 / early 2016. Wonder how Ford N.Z. will be handling that ?
All the current European car prices are vulnerable to significant increases too, not to forget imported boats or whatever else takes your fancy.
You better be quick with your next art acquisition in Europe mate.

[xafalcon]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/economy/news/article.cfm?c_id=34&objectid=11482767&utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Saturday+18 +July+2015
Might mean nothing to you but they've been a very good indicator of the recent collapse in dairy prices and this is an ominous sign for the next GDT auction IMO.

More evidence of a slowing economy
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/economy/news/article.cfm?c_id=34&objectid=11482709

and even more
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/economy/news/article.cfm?c_id=34&objectid=11482268
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/economy/news/article.cfm?c_id=34&objectid=11482287

Do we see 50 cents U.S in 2016 or OMG maybe even a 4 handle in due course ? Exporters be dancing in the streets then !!

The media are notorious for running one-eyed bad news stories. Sorry, NZ Hearld predictions carry negligible weight for me. Just another reporter parroting off what someone told them.

I only have 22 years experience in NZ dairy industry, I only buy $4-5M of dairy ingredients per annum. I don't say this to try to rubbish your perspective, but to give you an idea of my sources of information being somewhat closer to the "coal face"

The feedback I'm getting is there is minimal if any downside risk. There will be "noise" in prices, as there always is. But I am forward buying to lock in future profitability. Current prices are 10-year lows

I think the NZ economy is currently doing just fine, and will regain the "rock-star" handle some time next year as the double stimulus from lower exchange rate and lower interest rate kicks in

[winner69]

Quote: xafalcon - I think the NZ economy is currently doing just fine, and will regain the "rock-star" handle some time next year as the double stimulus from lower exchange rate and lower interest rate kicks in

I'm with you on this .....maybe earlier than 'this time last year' though

Stimulus from interest cuts earlier this year starting to happen

Just put a few more dollars on the GDP > 1% in September option at iPredict

[winner69]

Headline business confidence might be down but half the businesses polled are positive and half negative (the ' sames' don't count). Glass half full.

But when asked about their own business a net 24% are positive (expecting more activity). Not counting the 'sames' that implies more than 60% of businesses expect to do better. Glass more than half full when talking about themselves.

There was that article that outlined many business owners appear to be negative thinking Wheeler will be swayed by their doom and gloom.

[winner69]

Goodness gracious me - the economy seems to be rollicking along

NZ services sector hits most buoyant level in 11 months in June
.

Monday 20th July 2015

New Zealand's services sector, which accounts for about two thirds of the economy, was at its most buoyant level in 11 months in June.

The BNZ BusinessNZ performance of services index rose 0.1 point to a seasonally adjusted 58.2 last month, its highest level since July 2014, and extending a run of continuous expansion since October 2009. All of the five sub-indices were above the 50 reading that separates contraction from expansion.

The improved performance in the services sector comes after a similarly upbeat gauge of the manufacturing sector last week. The BNZ BusinessNZ performance of manufacturing index rose to a seasonally adjusted 55.2, the highest level since February with all components in expansion.

"Whether parsed by region, industry type, or firm size, every bit of the PSI was in expansion mode, which is rare," Bank of New Zealand senior economist Craig Ebert said. "Combined with the improved PMI reading for June, the latest PSI paints a picture of an economy expanding robustly, probably a little better than average."

The performance of composite index, which combines the two measures, increased 0.6 of a point to 57.8 on a GDP weighted basis, and rose 1.5 points to 57.2 on a free weighted basis, the closest the two measures have been to each other since December last year.

While the current measure were buoyant, economists expect New Zealand's economic growth to slow as weaker commodity prices weigh on the country's main exports and earnings. The Reserve Bank is expected to reduce the benchmark interest by 25 basis points this week to bolster the economy, with further cuts predicted before the end of the year.

The latest PSI showed activity/sales weakened to 60.2 in June from 62.9 in May, while new orders/business edged lower to 63 from 63.1. Employment slipped to a reading of 54.2 from 56.3, while stocks/inventories advanced to 53.4 from 50.5, and supplier deliveries increased to 56.1 from 49.9.

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/00aa5252/nz-services-sector-hits-most-buoyant-level-in-11-months-in-june.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NZ+services+sector+hits+most+buoyant+ level+in+11+months+in+June&utm_content=NZ+services+sector+hits+most+buoyant+l evel+in+11+months+in+June+CID_600c568bc87df3fa2d8c afb8c797333c&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle00aa5252nz-services-sector-hits-most-buoyant-level-in-11-months-in-junehtml

[BlackPeter]

just don't tell EZ ;) Our resident opposition supporters are just trying to proliferate their doom & gloom mood on the political thread. Good news would spoil their efforts :t_up:

[Daytr]

I would be far more concerned about the NZ economy if the NZD had remained stubbornly high as it was only a few months ago, before the RBNZ jawboned the currency to great effect & obviously signaled lower rates. What I find confounding as some of the more 'optimistic' punters on here were criticizing the RBNZ for being overly negative & perhaps talking the country into recession, when its in fact the end resulting lower dollar that they targeted that is likely to the biggest single factor protecting NZs economy from falling into a recession. I criticized the RBNZ for raising rates last year, but I commend them for at least back flipping. We are now 14% weaker against the Aussie & similar if not more against the USD. If the NZD was still around 75c & parity to the Aussie things would be looking a hell of a lot worse. Amasing difference what a few months make.

[IAK]

Hmmm... "Fund managers are holding the most cash since Lehman." It's not all rosy....


http://www.businessinsider.com/fund-managers-are-holding-the-most-cash-since-lehman-2015-7?IR=T

[traineeinvestor]

Hmmm... "Fund managers are holding the most cash since Lehman." It's not all rosy....


http://www.businessinsider.com/fund-managers-are-holding-the-most-cash-since-lehman-2015-7?IR=T

I tend to view that as a positive and it's consistent with the discussions I've had with NZ fund managers, brokers and investors on my current visit to NZ. Everyone is essentially saying two things (i) investors are holding more cash largely because of a scarcity of value investment opportunities and/or concerns about a down turn in the market and (ii) overseas investors are reducing allocations to NZD assets because they expect the NZD to head lower. If history is any guide, large cash piles sooner or later get invested - the only questions are when and what.

FWIW, I'm in the "have cash but am struggling to find attractive value" camp.

[sb9]

Testing 6000 mark soon, any takers?

[see weed]

Might be some good buying opportunities today.

[Daytr]

Yeah I agree, Chinese Government have said they will step in & buy shares. I almost bought the China50 yesterday when it was down 10% or 1000 points! I think it will be a huge opportunity for Chinese stocks at some point. Picked up the DOW instead just above 17,400.
Not sure though if I am now buying into a bear market in the US. The higher USD is clearly hurting earnings.

[skid]

Todays quote (from USA)

The Fed is a loose cannon with a lit fuse rolling around on the deck. We all know it’s going to go off, we’re just not sure who’s going to get shot.