ZEL - Z Energy.

[dreamcatcher]

You could also look at it this way:

punters sold 8,576,477 Zel shares equaling $24 million and maybe not finished. They have put their money where their mouth is. Question for the smarties why would they do that.

Correct SOLD so they RECEIVED funds BUYER put the money on the table, large order without any discount ? Sellers maybe in trouble but everyone assumes otherwise.

Next few months will tell.

[Beagle]

Re; "we welcome this change..."

I've learnt that is corporate speak for; 'Our sphincter has never been so tight, filled with fear and dread"

:lol: :lol:

[dreamcatcher]

Jetfuel bubble coming closer between aus/nz

[Lion_graf]

bold plans... https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/124477328/z-energys-new-electricity-offer-in-the-mix-says-price-comparison-service?fbclid=IwAR143D_liniviUu81NPcnlSQ-k02OD2x_FjxW5fv1FQNN_t-CCw4ZyyX7SA

[Jay]

Out my way Z station has 91 @ 2.22 and Pak'n' Save next door (also supplied by Z according to the pump) has it for $2.06 all before any discounts.
May be Pak'N'Save is taking the hit and trying to get more people in to the Supermarket with cheaper petrol??

P.S. The other 2 stations nearby, a Mobil and a GAS all at 2.22, however sort of between them and me ( a little closer) a Mobil and Caltex at $2.10

[Dlownz]

bold plans... https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/124477328/z-energys-new-electricity-offer-in-the-mix-says-price-comparison-service?fbclid=IwAR143D_liniviUu81NPcnlSQ-k02OD2x_FjxW5fv1FQNN_t-CCw4ZyyX7SA

Charging at home is so much cheaper. A whole year of charging costs me no more than 360 a year.

[winner69]

Another profit downgrade -- only small one

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ZEL/368948/342167.pdf

[winner69]

Where's it ll going to end

2019 EBITDAF 434m
2020 EBITDAF 366m
2021 EBITDAF 235m

Profits can't keep reducing forever can they?

[Rawz]

ZEL is SKY 2.0. Currently worth $1.4b.
Going to be worth $300m (Sky capitalization) one day as the industry fades away into the sunset.

[bottomfeeder]

Out my way Z station has 91 @ 2.22 and Pak'n' Save next door (also supplied by Z according to the pump) has it for $2.06 all before any discounts.
May be Pak'N'Save is taking the hit and trying to get more people in to the Supermarket with cheaper petrol??

P.S. The other 2 stations nearby, a Mobil and a GAS all at 2.22, however sort of between them and me ( a little closer) a Mobil and Caltex at $2.10

Price competition hurts everyone. Where does it stop. Z needs to compete in other ways.

[winner69]

Share price hanging in there

Going below 270 (which has held several times over the last year) would be ominous

[bottomfeeder]

At least its making a profit. When the vaccinations start to work, and the Australian travel bubble is opened up, we will see some big gains.

[peat]

Gull NFD and Waitomo building new stations all around the Manawatu....reducing larger margins wherever they are found.
Sanson for instance now has a new automated Gull right on corner of SH1
An ECL guy I was talkin to at a Z in Palmerston said NPD building a new station there and in Levin.

[iceman]

ZEL is SKY 2.0. Currently worth $1.4b.
Going to be worth $300m (Sky capitalization) one day as the industry fades away into the sunset.

Their industry in the current form is certainly a sunset industry, even though not so long ago it was called a "consumer staple" on this thread (I had it in my divie portfolio), so they need to change direction. Jet fuel will come back but other parts of their business are in a downward trend. They certainly need to decide where they want to go in the future and come up with a clear plan to become an interesting investment opportunity again.
Do they need something radical like Kodak going from film development to pharmaceuticals or Nokia from gumboots to mobile phones !!

[dreamcatcher]

“The big news of the day was out of Australia where they signalled the borders would be reopened at the end of October,”

Travel stocks rally on Aussie reopening - Good Returns..............April travel bubble between NZ/Aus a possibility and imagine NZ will follow Aus in Oct (https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976518271/travel-stocks-rally-on-aussie-reopening.html)

[Arthur]

Their industry in the current form is certainly a sunset industry, even though not so long ago it was called a "consumer staple" on this thread (I had it in my divie portfolio), so they need to change direction. Jet fuel will come back but other parts of their business are in a downward trend. They certainly need to decide where they want to go in the future and come up with a clear plan to become an interesting investment opportunity again.
Do they need something radical like Kodak going from film development to pharmaceuticals or Nokia from gumboots to mobile phones !!
Unfortunately ICE cars will be with us for a long time. If a vehicle bought today has a 20 year lifespan and 99% of them are ICE there is another 20 years of fuel demand. Tourism restarting, economic growth and the refinery shutting down should help the ZEL bottom line. It will be interesting to see how sustainable the newcomers will be - Z always has the option of adding "no service" stations if that model is fiscally viable.

[bull....]

Their industry in the current form is certainly a sunset industry, even though not so long ago it was called a "consumer staple" on this thread (I had it in my divie portfolio), so they need to change direction. Jet fuel will come back but other parts of their business are in a downward trend. They certainly need to decide where they want to go in the future and come up with a clear plan to become an interesting investment opportunity again.
Do they need something radical like Kodak going from film development to pharmaceuticals or Nokia from gumboots to mobile phones !!

consumer staple lol

[Getty]

Investing in ZEL now, would be like investing in a company that made traction engines in 1935.

Eventually, they will run out of steam.

[peat]

consumer staple lol

kinda is tho!!

I use enough of the stuff and there are a lot of ICE's still out there all whizzing around like bats outta hell. Apart from Jet its only marginally (pun) about demand and more about margins. Z have been and continue to obtain larger margins (based on prices) where ever they can as people dont travel to fill up so the prices are maxxed hard by location and location of competition. Essentially charging what they could but so much of this will get eaten and continue to get eaten - and the no frills approach started by Gull makes it even worse

[Beagle]

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/consumerstaples.asp I have to buy fuel today or tomorrow whether I make money in the market today or continue to get a hiding, just like Mrs B has to go shopping for food and we have to pay our electricity, telephone, internet and rates bills whether we want to or not. Currently less than 1% of the national fleet is an EV and the speed of uptake is best described as extremely slow in my opinion.

The issue for ZEL is not whether what they sell is a consumer staple, there is no question it is, its about their very poor marketing, lack of investment in their sites, price gouging and the ever increasing number of unmanned sites that are being built by their competitors around the country. Jet will be very slow to come back in my opinion and Marsden Point is an unmitigated train wreck.

Fuel will be sold for decades to come, its about whether ZEL can adapt their business model for the gradually changing conditions. Under Bennett's "leadership" my bet is they will always be behind the eight ball and his lack of leadership or vision makes this ostensibly uninvestable in my opinion.

[Zaphod]

Out my way Z station has 91 @ 2.22 and Pak'n' Save next door (also supplied by Z according to the pump) has it for $2.06 all before any discounts.
May be Pak'N'Save is taking the hit and trying to get more people in to the Supermarket with cheaper petrol??

P.S. The other 2 stations nearby, a Mobil and a GAS all at 2.22, however sort of between them and me ( a little closer) a Mobil and Caltex at $2.10

Our suburban Z is currently 3cpl more for 91 than the cluster of stations 10km away. Another suburban Z a few km from to me has the same 3cpl difference. That isn't enough to warrant traveling the distance to save the $1.20 on a full tank, or even sit in the queue at the slightly cheaper sites, but I accept other locations may have larger price discrepancies. What I have noticed however, is that these discrepancies are fleeting with prices raised or lowered regularly, but with some lag.


Price competition hurts everyone. Where does it stop. Z needs to compete in other ways.

You're definitely right bottomfeeder, and as consumers we continue to feed this as we shop almost purely on price, and this has resulted in a race to the bottom (no pun intended) with service and quality being compromised. Changes to the supply chain and geopolitical conflict (such as the west v China) will no doubt have a profound effect on all consumer goods & services.

While we do take a cursory look at fuel prices when filling our hybrid vehicle, life is short so I'd rather spend that doing something enjoyable or upskilling which generates a higher income, than our neighbours who prodly announced a few weeks ago they were driving across town because they've found a service station that sells fuel a few cpl cheaper.

[Beagle]

I suspect that for many its a similar experience to me and right here is the nub of the issue as I see it. Based on regular routes travelled I have a range of service station options and when my local Z is very consistently 5-7 cpl dearer after discounts than other brands I make a decision in principle that their pricing is excessive so I react by actively avoiding them as my way of making a statement about their market behavior. I would wager there are hundreds of thousands of other potential customers like me that as a result of Z's high pricing feel when Z market themselves as "being for New Zealand" they find that marketing such a a load of rubbish it really puts them off.

[Antipodean]

Consumer behaviour can be weird and I find sometimes the smallest things can influence my choices.

While I commute to / from work, the distance isn't significant and my choice to run a 1.0 litre ICE vehicle running on '91 means I don't really pay much attention to the actual pump prices. Given I fill up once every 1-2 weeks, and my tank is ~40l, @$0.06 cpl, or $2.40 total difference for a full tank means I'm not even prepared to spend an extra 5min finding a different station. It is simply not worth my time compared to almost anything else I could use that for.

So logically geographical convenience would make sense, however I too pass several options each way that would suit. I ended up sticking with Z for what are possibly some really petty reasons. 1. I prefer their pay at pump style machines over the apps / other offerings. 2. They are more consistent with having readily available window washing, oil/atf checking and tyre checking facilities - both available and currently working (as I like to DIY these).

I'm not sure I can claim many others have my experience, or other potential customers like me. Never attempted ad hoc or serious market research in this field.

Not sure how that interacts with my interest in ZEL. I have held in the past, and it is on some of my watchlists, but at the moment other prospects are attracting me more.

[malreid]

Z Electric - Another 'premium offering' that will appear good to those who don't do the numbers properly and are attracted by the fuel 'discount' or litres that will go into Sharetank, and are only redeemable at Z and therefore subject to the 'premium' pricing model.

I'm not with the cheapest power retailer I could be, but even so, at our current usage and the current Z pricing we'd be paying $13-16 more per month after the fuel incentive is taken into account. That's before factoring in the weekly 10c discount days offered by all major competitors.

[ananda77]

Consumer behaviour can be weird and I find sometimes the smallest things can influence my choices.

While I commute to / from work, the distance isn't significant and my choice to run a 1.0 litre ICE vehicle running on '91 means I don't really pay much attention to the actual pump prices. Given I fill up once every 1-2 weeks, and my tank is ~40l, @$0.06 cpl, or $2.40 total difference for a full tank means I'm not even prepared to spend an extra 5min finding a different station. It is simply not worth my time compared to almost anything else I could use that for.

So logically geographical convenience would make sense, however I too pass several options each way that would suit. I ended up sticking with Z for what are possibly some really petty reasons. 1. I prefer their pay at pump style machines over the apps / other offerings. 2. They are more consistent with having readily available window washing, oil/atf checking and tyre checking facilities - both available and currently working (as I like to DIY these).

I'm not sure I can claim many others have my experience, or other potential customers like me. Never attempted ad hoc or serious market research in this field.

Not sure how that interacts with my interest in ZEL. I have held in the past, and it is on some of my watchlists, but at the moment other prospects are attracting me more.

you could have filled up the sharetank when fuel was cheap. I bought 3000 ltr, for my wife's car 91 1000ltr. for my car 2000ltr. 95
Filled up my wife's car today, saving atm 46 cents/liter on the discounted price. No, I fo not choose to go to the most expensive station, but always use the same local one.

[Zaphod]

you could have filled up the sharetank when fuel was cheap. I bought 3000 ltr, for my wife's car 91 1000ltr. for my car 2000ltr. 95
Filled up my wife's car today, saving atm 46 cents/liter on the discounted price. No, I fo not choose to go to the most expensive station, but always use the same local one.

Well done!

This shows that you can derive good value from Z, but as with so many other companies in other sectors (e.g. Powershop) you will need to be very actively engaged in your purchasing decisions & associated timing, as well as planning your consumption in advance.

[sb9]

Resumption of dividends following on FY results in May in the range of 12c-14c.

[Beagle]

ZEL have massive debt and a very checkered track record of dividend payments and are a sunset industry. Any attempt to invest based on forecast yield is fundamentally flawed in my opinion due to the notorious unreliability of dividends and the companies inability to forecast them. Real caution is required here in my opinion.

[Habits]

Resumption of dividends following on FY results in May in the range of 12c-14c.

That's an earlier dividend than original forecast of FY22... cool

[Langara]

I’m hoping for a bounce in the share price assuming the bubble with Aussie gets announced shortly. Has to be of benefit having extra planes needing the fuel??
Hasn’t responded very strongly to probable divi or likely bubble so far...

[Grimy]

I’m hoping for a bounce in the share price assuming the bubble with Aussie gets announced shortly. Has to be of benefit having extra planes needing the fuel??
Hasn’t responded very strongly to probable divi or likely bubble so far...

I was hoping/expecting the same thing in regard to opening a bubble with Australia. But SP has dropped today, go figure.
I did take the opportunity to get a few more today, as the aviation fuel side of things has to just increase as time goes on.

[Davexl]

I was hoping/expecting the same thing in regard to opening a bubble with Australia. But SP has dropped today, go figure.
I did take the opportunity to get a few more today, as the aviation fuel side of things has to just increase as time goes on.

Got a quite a few today too, just above the 52-week low of $2.65 (and below the 30d mav), looking for the price to chase the Final dividend in mid May.
Hope I'm not too soon?:mellow:

[Shareguy]

Am I missing something here. All I see is a sunset industry, Smaller players absolutely caning them on price and taking customers away. Z shares in the refinery are worth what... I can also see a large capital raise coming due to the large debt they have which will need to be at a big discount. Can’t understand why they would pay a dividend at all .

[Davexl]

Am I missing something here. All I see is a sunset industry, Smaller players absolutely caning them on price and taking customers away. Z shares in the refinery are worth what... I can also see a large capital raise coming due to the large debt they have which will need to be at a big discount. Can’t understand why they would pay a dividend at all .

Came across this viewpoint from Chris Lee & Associates that I personally found quite encouraging:

"Z Energy might claim they had the worst possible year during 2020.

Regulators were stress testing their profit margins, oblivious it seems to the fact that natural competition was also doing this;

The government was jumping on the bully train, prodding ZEL, without being honest about the fact that more than half what we pay for fuel is tax to them;

Covid19 made us immobile by sending us all home, planes, trains and automobiles (and boats – Ed);

The world has 'suddenly' discovered electricity as an energy source. Seriously?!;

As sales volumes collapsed, and local storage of fuel was relatively full, Z Energy had to send back a tanker of fuel that we no longer required to a market that didn't want it (sales price near $0);

The temporary (months) drop in sales meant the banks and US Lenders stepped in and forced directors to raise new money from shareholders and to suspend dividends (the logical part);

The value of their major shareholding in NZ Refining was falling fast;

Sovereign investment funds were searching for investments in unethical or climate harming industries to sell from their portfolios; and

An important one from me, the Z Energy coffee was still no good!

It would have been hard to design a more difficult year for any company than that.

So, to the credit of all at Z Energy, they quickly recognised the truth of the changes occurring around them, the permanence of some, and set new strategies for what they thought their playing field would look like in the immediate future.

Aspects of the business were downsized. Costs were cut. Forward-looking developments introduced (Z Electric and dual fuel offering for vehicles).

ZEL remains a high cash flow business and sells an essential product, regardless of global debate. You can see how essential it is in the very high volumes of traffic back on our roads.

ZEL has been updating the market more frequently than required with its sales and financial performance and it has been tracking rather nicely for them. So nicely in fact that they opened negotiations with their bankers seeking permission to return to dividend payments sooner than defined in their 2020 agreement.

At that point ZEL agreed no dividends would be paid until after September 2021, one full financial year of stand down, however, the banks have agreed to amend the conditions and we expect a dividend to be declared and paid in May (estimated at 12-14 cents per share plus any imputation credits).

Clearly the company is in a stronger financial position than both they and their bankers anticipated. You cannot criticise either party for this inaccuracy; making any business predictions in the immediate aftermath of our first Covid19 lockdown was a fool's errand (witness the predictions of falling house prices!) so taking a conservative stance was entirely appropriate.

To not pay dividends is to store shareholders' money, which is a good behaviour either in the face of financial disruption (Covid19) or high-quality investment opportunities. Thereafter a director might consider paying dividends.

The additional capital raised from shareholders last year ($350m) settled the nerves of the banks (all lenders). They do not now need additional capital for the business, so paying a dividend is evidence that capital, sales and profit margins are all under good control by the company.

ZEL bondholders should also be pleased with the situation because the bond trustee exercised his/her discretion during the negotiations by demanding that the company set aside (hold with a bank) the $150 million required to repay the ZEL040 bond in November. They have done so.

Whichever way you look at this ZEL management deserve applause for their reactions to 2020's combination of negative pressures and their week-to-week business management that has delivered this early financial reward to shareholders.

Investors have experienced both how unexpected risks can emerge and negatively impact an investment's rewards and then the value of good governance and good management in setting a new path for success."

[blackie]

wrong quote posted

[blackie]

Am I missing something here. All I see is a sunset industry, Smaller players absolutely caning them on price and taking customers away. Z shares in the refinery are worth what... I can also see a large capital raise coming due to the large debt they have which will need to be at a big discount. Can’t understand why they would pay a dividend at all .

everywhere you turn in the south island a new unmanned NPD station is popping up

[Rawz]

everywhere you turn in the south island a new unmanned NPD station is popping up

Can't buy a coffee, pie, ice, news paper etc from a unmanned station thou.

My limited understanding on EVs and the grid is that if everyone had an EV and went home each night and plugged in their car to charge there 1) wouldnt be enough power and 2) the grid wouldnt be able to handle the load even if we had the power.

Lot's more copper and other precious metals need to be mined to build the EV revolution.

Z is 100% in a sunset industry but that sun is setting very slowly

[Shareguy]

Thanks for the info, some valid comments. Will add to my watch list.

[Teatree]

Sorry guys I bought more today which always means the price will drop.

[bull....]

looking at the charts doesnt inspire confidence , its been range bound between 2.65 - 3.30 for 1 year. yesterday was a push down under the bottom of the range. while needing a little while to confirm generally a break down in this type of pattern would suggest prices heading to 3.30 - 2.65 = .65 therefore 2.65 - .65 = 2 as the target area for pattern confirmation. lets see if it pans out. lots of fundamental reasons are around to support the pattern. people buying for div should read up on what a div value trap stock is.

[Davexl]

looking at the charts doesnt inspire confidence , its been range bound between 2.65 - 3.30 for 1 year. yesterday was a push down under the bottom of the range. while needing a little while to confirm generally a break down in this type of pattern would suggest prices heading to 3.30 - 2.65 = .65 therefore 2.65 - .65 = 2 as the target area for pattern confirmation. lets see if it pans out. lots of fundamental reasons are around to support the pattern. people buying for div should read up on what a div value trap stock is.

Sorry, but have never fully trusted technical analysis (in the thin and easily manipulated NZ market especially). I trust in the quality of the ZEL management, and the integrity of the broker who wrote the fundamental analysis I copied and pasted in #2035 above. DYOR.

[Habits]

you could have filled up the sharetank when fuel was cheap. I bought 3000 ltr, for my wife's car 91 1000ltr. for my car 2000ltr. 95
Filled up my wife's car today, saving atm 46 cents/liter on the discounted price. No, I fo not choose to go to the most expensive station, but always use the same local one.

I read the Z Electricity offer and signed up this morning... ezy peasy and fast. Very good deal of free fuel for signup and ongoing discount imo. I am not usually one to change supplier but electricity rates seems comparable and am a shareholder. Will see how it goes and consider switching the bach

[Lion_graf]

Who do we think the seller is selling over 250k Z? Probably for a big loss I'd imagine

[Master98]

very quiet this month, suppose some announcements like monthly and quartely operating data, full year results announcement date.

[bull....]

looking at the charts doesnt inspire confidence , its been range bound between 2.65 - 3.30 for 1 year. yesterday was a push down under the bottom of the range. while needing a little while to confirm generally a break down in this type of pattern would suggest prices heading to 3.30 - 2.65 = .65 therefore 2.65 - .65 = 2 as the target area for pattern confirmation. lets see if it pans out. lots of fundamental reasons are around to support the pattern. people buying for div should read up on what a div value trap stock is.

price respected the 2.65 resistance and has headed lower .. pattern still in play until otherwise proved wrong

[Habits]

Lower low end of March 2020

[Habits]

Strong lift today on well above avg volume, tested but did not breach previous march 2020 2.50 low, F21 in one week will not be stellar though worth watching nevertheless, small divie coming

[Master98]

Brokerage firm Jarden reiterated its ‘buy’ recommendation, they are forecasting full year earnings of $243m at the high end of Z Energy’s guidance range which tops out at $245m.

[Sideshow Bob]

Brokerage firm Jarden reiterated its ‘buy’ recommendation, they are forecasting full year earnings of $243m at the high end of Z Energy’s guidance range which tops out at $245m.

Will find out next week - results due 6th of May.

[Davexl]

Brokerage firm Jarden reiterated its ‘buy’ recommendation, they are forecasting full year earnings of $243m at the high end of Z Energy’s guidance range which tops out at $245m.

"Forsyth Barr are less bullish, expecting earnings to land in the lower end of the guidance at about $237m"

Yet investors disagree and have pushed SP up further to $2.70 / $2.71 on increasing volume. Bulls pattern broken...

[RRR]

Dividend will also be announced on 06 May for FY21 - 12-14 cents per share

Discl - bought recently

[sb9]

"Forsyth Barr are less bullish, expecting earnings to land in the lower end of the guidance at about $237m"

Yet investors disagree and have pushed SP up further to $2.70 / $2.71 on increasing volume. Bulls pattern broken...

Tran-tasman bubble travel should be positive for jet fuel volume going into next reporting period. Picking a 13c divvy to be declared on 6th May.

[Habits]

Tran-tasman bubble travel should be positive for jet fuel volume going into next reporting period. Picking a 13c divvy to be declared on 6th May.

Thats damn near 5 percent after tax whoa. Question is, is the dividend already priced in or will SP adjust post ex-div. Maybe the shackles will be removed ftom SP next week, sell the rumour and buy the fact style (yes I know thats reverse of normal but everything upside down now)

[sb9]

Thats damn near 5 percent after tax whoa. Question is, is the dividend already priced in or will SP adjust post ex-div. Maybe the shackles will be removed ftom SP next week, sell the rumour and buy the fact style (yes I know thats reverse of normal but everything upside down now)

Pretty decent right. I think forward looking statements and commentary from investor call on results day will set the tone for future sp direction. Personally I think price with a handle of 3+ in near term is very achievable from hereon.

[Sideshow Bob]

Z Energy FY21 results announcement - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/371737)

Divvy back in.....14c

[Langara]

So at current prices this is a current dividend return of 5.26%, looking at the future FY 22 it will between 7.14% - 8.65%. Not a bad result and surely this must kick start a movement up in share price or am I missing something here?

[bull....]

terrible result , profits dont even cover dividends , cost savings made up most of the profit.
declining retail margins and i think there structural ,
jet fuel demand not going to recover for years. i really struggle to see how divs can be maintained.

good luck , div trap comes to mind good luck to those seduced

[Dassets]

Yes. If profits will continue to decline long run yield will have to be way higher. I have seen royalties from petro fields trade at 20%+. Why? because you have to recover the capital and get a return. So a long run yield for ZEL would, IMO, be above 10%. Not good for share price. I am not saying that the long run future is a or b, just that if it is b the yield has to be higher.

[bottomfeeder]

Been a long year, fraught with lock downs, travel interruptions, but the future looks good. Not a bad result. Compare this to Air NZ, Quantas, Jetstar, AIA etc, and I know where I would like to have my money. So I am comfortable with my investment.

[winner69]

terrible result , profits dont even cover dividends , cost savings made up most of the profit.
declining retail margins and i think there structural ,
jet fuel demand not going to recover for years. i really struggle to see how divs can be maintained.

good luck , div trap comes to mind good luck to those seduced

hey bull ..... remember the days when many got seduced by wonderful divie yield when share price was over 6 bucks

Luckily this time is different

[bull....]

hey bull ..... remember the days when many got seduced by wonderful divie yield when share price was over 6 bucks

Luckily this time is different

sure do. its a consumer staple they all yelled from the roof lol.

[winner69]

Appears CEO total remunaration was $1.8m

In the remuneration they also include this chart

[malreid]

Not only has volume declined, but market share is also in a steady decline.

Although the presentation states that "Z’s average sale price is highly competitive to the most relevant low price competitor", I certainly don't see or experience this across the wider Auckland area south of the harbour bridge. There's always a 1-2 cent saving at the lowest cost competitor after discounts are accounted for. Factor in a Gull discount day and the difference can swing as much as 8+ on the same day for the same fuel.

So long as that remains the case market share will continue to erode.

[bottomfeeder]

Not only has volume declined, but market share is also in a steady decline.

Although the presentation states that "Z’s average sale price is highly competitive to the most relevant low price competitor", I certainly don't see or experience this across the wider Auckland area south of the harbour bridge. There's always a 1-2 cent saving at the lowest cost competitor after discounts are accounted for. Factor in a Gull discount day and the difference can swing as much as 8+ on the same day for the same fuel.

So long as that remains the case market share will continue to erode.

Price competition is only a part of the marketing mix. If everyone competed on price, then profits would be eroded across the whole industry.

Looks like the market likes the result.

[macduffy]

terrible result , profits dont even cover dividends , cost savings made up most of the profit.
declining retail margins and i think there structural ,
jet fuel demand not going to recover for years. i really struggle to see how divs can be maintained.

good luck , div trap comes to mind good luck to those seduced

I agree, bull.... (I don't, often.) Or should that be (I often don't) ?

:confused:

[winner69]

Price competition is only a part of the marketing mix. If everyone competed on price, then profits would be eroded across the whole industry.

Looks like the market likes the result.

Market likes the result - yes share price goes up by about the amount of the divie

Just one of those observations over years for no logical reason - share prices increase by size of divie if there isn't any other compelling reason to drive the share price much higher

I'd say market not that impressed with result --- other wise we would have seen a 3 buck plus share price

[Davexl]

Market likes the result - yes share price goes up by about the amount of the divie

Just one of those observations over years for no logical reason - share prices increase by size of divie if there isn't any other compelling reason to drive the share price much higher

I'd say market not that impressed with result --- other wise we would have seen a 3 buck plus share price

Don't agree that it is realistic to expect a 3 buck plus share price regardless of the result. That would represent at least a 10% plus gain which would be out of the ballpark - not realistic at this point...

Agree that market share maintenance may be in dispute but only time will tell. Costs are well controlled going forward, jet fuel and diesel volumes can only go up at this point. They also have their own distribution terminals going forward, no longer needing to share wholesale margins with competitors so much.


Price competition is only a part of the marketing mix. If everyone competed on price, then profits would be eroded across the whole industry.

Looks like the market likes the result.

Also not reliant on unmanned stations to compete with gull, can still make money on full service stations also pending good placement decisions. Works well with multiple payment options available also Z app, Sharetank, Pay by Plate etc - excellent market positioning always up for fine tuning.

This is a very well managed company, pays a good dividend with increasing div outlook going forward and a nice imputation credit.

Am very comfortable with result from a well managed company...

[winner69]

Don't agree that it is realistic to expect a 3 buck plus share price regardless of the result. That would represent at least a 10% plus gain which would be out of the ballpark - not realistic at this point...

...but one might have thought that forecasting 30% increased ebitdaf for 2022 would have done something to the share ..over and above what the divie was

[bottomfeeder]

...but one might have thought that forecasting 30% increased ebitdaf for 2022 would have done something to the share ..over and above what the divie was
Give it time, the announcement only came out this morning. Instos and fund managers, take a week to process, analyse, and then act on such information.

[maclir]

With all dues respect, it's only paying a good dividend if you invested recently.

[Zaphod]

Not only has volume declined, but market share is also in a steady decline.

Although the presentation states that "Z’s average sale price is highly competitive to the most relevant low price competitor", I certainly don't see or experience this across the wider Auckland area south of the harbour bridge. There's always a 1-2 cent saving at the lowest cost competitor after discounts are accounted for. Factor in a Gull discount day and the difference can swing as much as 8+ on the same day for the same fuel.

So long as that remains the case market share will continue to erode.

When comparing the discounts, are you using the standard 6cpl figure* or have you accounted for the effect of stacking? The latter provided an almost unbeatable discount compared to the competitors, even when they were selling 5-7cpl lower (either owing to a sudden price increase by Z or a special discount by the competitors).

[jg8512]

When comparing the discounts, are you using the standard 6cpl figure* or have you accounted for the effect of stacking? The latter provided an almost unbeatable discount compared to the competitors, even when they were selling 5-7cpl lower (either owing to a sudden price increase by Z or a special discount by the competitors).

but it wasn't clear to me that the Z graph included competitors discounts. like Z they all discount too to some consumers.

[jg8512]

but it wasn't clear to me that the Z graph included competitors discounts. like Z they all discount too to some consumers.
ie, the graph on slide 10 shows Board prices (ie no discounts) except the dashed line which includes Z's discounts only. IMO, including the Z dashed line is comparing apples and oranges since the others all discount (Gull discount day, fastlane etc; BP AA smart Fuel, etc) but only Z's discounts are included.

[malreid]

ie, the graph on slide 10 shows Board prices (ie no discounts) except the dashed line which includes Z's discounts only <snipped>
Exactly. Drop the other lines on the graph by 6cpl and the only real period of significant price differential was late April/early May '20 which was when Z offered more frequent 10cpl discount days. Also, the board price at Gull is the price, period, available to everyone on the day and not just those who have signed up to a loyalty/marketing scheme.

Still begs the question if 75% of customers are buying at a discounted price, how sustainable is that over the long term before the slow trickle of market share away to the competitors really starts to bite? Very little in terms of differentiation in the offer, a couple of apps or tweaks in that space from the competitors and that part of the playing field becomes completely level. NZ will lag a bit as usual, but global uptake of EV's is accelerating and so far the foray into electricity supply has yet to provide any upside. Another point to ponder, has the impact of the new terminal supplier in the South Island (Timaru) landed yet or is that to come?

[Zaphod]

If your strategy is to be the lowest cost provider, then you’re in a race to the unprofitable bottom.

While I do pass by a Gull station semi-regularly, it’s in a far less convenient location and I can’t be bothered with the queues. I don’t want to sit in the car for double or triple the time I would at other stations waiting for a pump, as it’s both time and money (in terms of fuel wastage) that I’d rather use elsewhere.
Gull also do not offer 95 at the local station, and instead offer the methanol blended 98 which while cheaper, does not contain the same specific energy per litre as pure petroleum. This means you get less Km for the same volume of fuel, assuming your vehicle is compatible with methanol.
For my needs, the local Z is more conveniently located, has lower queues although it is still busy, good food and if we use stacking it’s a lot cheaper.

Mobil is also very near our area, and there has been some significant pricing competition between the two of late.

In terms of the discount days, given barrier to entry for the customer loyalty programme is exceptionally low, my view is that the normal price of fuel is the discounted price. The only true discount day is then the regular Tuesday (Mobil) and Wednesday (the others) discount days, where they are offering a great queueing experience to a save a large 4cpl.

Consumers want these types of deals where prices are held artificially high and a discount is applied, boosting dopamine in the brain thereby providing a pleasure stimulus. It's a fundamental component of our retail culture now.

[Davexl]

Surprise, surprise (from Mornningstar) - not really...Latest recommendation report Valuation: $5.60
https://online.asb.co.nz/ost/Content/Style/Images/Recommendation_Buy.png

Last updated:
07/05/21

No-moat Z Energy Surprises with Fiscal Second-Half Dividend. FVE Increased to NZD 5.60. Investment rating After Shell's exit in 2010, Z Energy successfully increased its gross fuels margin by 65%. However, New Zealand transport fuel consumption has stagnated for more than a decade and we think optimising the fuels margin can only go so far. Further, we have reservations in the owning of a stake in New Zealand's only refiner, comparatively modest though it is. Refineries are low-margin and capital-intensive, but Z Energy has many favourable attributes that make it an attractive investment at the right price. Management has made proven market inroads where Shell took its eye off the ball. Z Energy has driven returns on invested capital admirably back above its cost of capital, a key plank in a sustainable business model.
Event





Impact





Recommendation impact (last updated: 07/05/2021) <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />
Event analysis No-moat Z Energy Surprises with Fiscal Second-Half Dividend. FVE Increased to NZD 5.60.
We increase our fair value estimate for no-moat Z Energy by 5% to NZD 5.60 (AUD 5.20) due largely to the time value of money. The Kiwi refined fuel retailer reported a 76% decline in underlying fiscal 2021 NPAT, our measure, to NZD 25 million. This was somewhat below our NZD 54 million forecast, but not materially so. Higher than expected depreciation was the key detractor. Otherwise, underlying EBITDAF of NZD 228 million was essentially in line with our NZD 222 million expectation and within the guidance range after adjusting for operating lease depreciation. We lower our fiscal 2022 EPS forecast by 20% to NZD 16.5 cents after upping depreciation going forward.

Z unexpectedly paid a NZD 14.0 cent final dividend, fully imputed for New Zealand residents. There was none declared in the fiscal first half and we'd conservatively assumed none in the second given the recent requirement for an equity top-up. Also, the company had previously stated return of dividends wasn't anticipated until after first half fiscal 2022. We reset our DPS forecast for fiscal 2022 at NZD 20 cents, within new guidance for NZD 19.0–NZD 23.0 cents. At the current NZD 2.70 share price, our forecast equates to a healthy fully imputed fiscal 2022 yield of 7.4%, not to be sneezed at.

Z Energy shares have recovered a modest 7.0% from April 2021 lows near NZD 2.50 but remain materially undervalued in 5-star territory. We continue to view Z's longer-term earnings potential as attractive including Retail margin improvement from a period of hyper-competition, even before COVID impacted. Catalysts for share price re-rate include volume recovery to pre-COVID 4.0 billion litre plus levels, and retail margin improvement. To lift group fuel volumes overall from current circa 80% capacity will require the return of international air travel. Our forecasts still have volumes recovering gradually to full capacity again by fiscal 2025.







Previous close
Market cap


$2.750
$1,430 Million


52 week high/low


$3.420 - $2.530


Sector


Energy




Intrinsic valuation







Moat rating
None


Business risk
High


Pricing risk
--


Company beta
1.77


Sector beta
1.32




Year
03/20A
03/21A
03/22E
03/23E


NPAT ($m)
106.8
25.3
83.4
122.4


EPS (c)
26.7
4.9
16.0
23.5


% change
-40.0
-81.8
229.5
46.8


DPS (c)
16.5
14.0
20.1
24.5


Franking (%)
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0


Yield (%)
3.0
4.8
7.3
8.9


PER (x)
20.3
60.3
17.2
11.7


Source: Aspect Huntley analyst estimates.




6 month price chart


https://online.asb.co.nz/ost/1EF7A74123B3E0146FCC34BD8B2A7B16/external/reportsixmonthimage/zel/nzx?name=images%2f2653a03e0371799c51e00e92d0b.png

[X-men]

Wow... thanks for the post!

[bottomfeeder]

You would think that Morningstar would have an unlimited BUY notice on ZEL. Double your money, must be better than all of their other investments put together. Dont trust Morningstar, they have an ulterior motive to promote the price so they can dump at $5.60. Having said that I believe current market value at $2.80 is a reasonable buy for the future.

[X-men]

I don't trust the SP target but I do appreciate their analysis

[dreamcatcher]

You would think that Morningstar would have an unlimited BUY notice on ZEL. Double your money, must be better than all of their other investments put together. Dont trust Morningstar, they have an ulterior motive to promote the price so they can dump at $5.60. Having said that I believe current market value at $2.80 is a reasonable buy for the future.

Suppose you could include every Brokers analysis with the same brush .........

[bottomfeeder]

Probably. They all have an agenda of some sort. Where are the truly independent analysts.

[Waiuta]

Well, things are starting to look a little better and apart from all the financials etc I think Z needs to sack it's advertising agency. Most of their stations look aesthetically pleasing and some are quite inviting but their current TV ads with a geriatric biker and a couple of tradies doesn't spin my wheels at all. Bennetts has been there since 2010... Time for a change.
As I've mentioned before TV ads with bustling forecourts has far more appeal if they want to connect better to customers.
I've held since 2013 and topped up in 2018 & 2019. I'm down about 3K but up 7K in their bonds and pride makes me hold waiting for the magic to re-appear. I don't think it will happen with Bennetts or their current advertising agency. I must admit their website is great.

[X-men]

No one can predict.... after all it is share market.

[bottomfeeder]

Well, things are starting to look a little better and apart from all the financials etc I think Z needs to sack it's advertising agency. Most of their stations look aesthetically pleasing and some are quite inviting but their current TV ads with a geriatric biker and a couple of tradies doesn't spin my wheels at all. Bennetts has been there since 2010... Time for a change.
As I've mentioned before TV ads with bustling forecourts has far more appeal if they want to connect better to customers.
I've held since 2013 and topped up in 2018 & 2019. I'm down about 3K but up 7K in their bonds and pride makes me hold waiting for the magic to re-appear. I don't think it will happen with Bennetts or their current advertising agency. I must admit their website is great.

Add doesn't grab me either. Looking forward to the $5.00 plus as valued by Morningstar, but not holding my breath on that.

The SP does deserve to be $3.50 ish though. I have a feeling it will reach that over next month or so.

[X-men]

$2.80 is way too cheap for a company that forecast at least 20c dividend

[winner69]

$2.80 is way too cheap for a company that forecast at least 20c dividend

Surely 23c ai least (upgrades to come over year)

But don’t tell too many just yet ....some punters are backing the truck up ...even though bull says this is a big trap.

[X-men]

Bull...ahh...he is a trader...hot n cold.

[Gerald]

https://imgur.com/RccABmu

Atleast the key metrics like TSR are improving, right Winner?

Might even break even next year if you're lucky :)

[X-men]

If tmw broke n hold above $2.90...then it breaks MA 100....sp will head above $3 in the coming week

[bull....]

price respected the 2.65 resistance and has headed lower .. pattern still in play until otherwise proved wrong

the price break back above 2.65 and into the channel invalidated the pattern ( this happens as patterns are not 100% full prove ) so i assume we are back in the large trading range at the lows. i stick with my div trap thinking though.

[Habits]

the price break back above 2.65 and into the channel invalidated the pattern ( this happens as patterns are not 100% full prove ) so i assume we are back in the large trading range at the lows. i stick with my div trap thinking though.

Interesting statement there, top of range $3.40 less current 2.89 is 51 cents or 17.6 percent ... translation: TIME TO BUY

[see weed]

Interesting statement there, top of range $3.40 less current 2.89 is 51 cents or 17.6 percent ... translation: TIME TO BUY
You only have today and tomorrow to top up if you want the div. Not a bad yld at 7%. Ex div on 20/5/21.

[X-men]

Yeah buy now....ex dividend ...sp gives up 14c too...
So..buy at $2.80...ex dividend will be $2.70 .. possible lower...

It will take weeks or months to gain. Back your capital n your capital will be under water

[Beagle]

Food for thought.
Is the dividend sustainable ?
What is ZEL's track record like with previous dividend forecasts ?
How fast is the tide going out with the switch to EV's ?
How fast are the minnows continuing to erode ZEL's market share ?
Is swimming in what appears to be a steadily outgoing tide worth the risk ?

[see weed]

$2.80 is way too cheap for a company that forecast at least 20c dividend
Am not too worried about sp dropping on ex div day. have made 113k profit so far this financial year and would like to start my LTDS ( Loss To Div Swap) process to get my profit down for tax reasons. There must be plenty of sellers, because every time I buy more somebody keeps putting more to sell at $2.81c.

[Leftfield]

Food for thought.
Is the dividend sustainable ?
What is ZEL's track record like with previous dividend forecasts ?
How fast is the tide going out with the switch to EV's ?
How fast are the minnows continuing to erode ZEL's market share ?
Is swimming in what appears to be a steadily outgoing tide worth the risk ?

The NZ Govt's new Kiwi Saver provisions exclude Kiwi Saver funds investing in carbon/petroleum industry..... I guess that means Z. GLH.

[stoploss]

The NZ Govt's new Kiwi Saver provisions exclude Kiwi Saver funds investing in carbon/petroleum industry..... I guess that means Z. GLH.

Currently all the money is sitting in conservative funds , would a conservative fund have something like ZEL in it , I doubt it, so shouldn't be selling pressure coming from
that direction. It obviously precludes the new providers from investing in them for their New "balanced" funds.

[see weed]

Had to drop into Z last week at Bombay while heading south. Got a top up of petrol and was very impressed with the clean toilets and the food presentation, and can now understand why lots of customers were eating pies as I was about to leave. Just couldn't resist, so went back in and bought one, it was a good pie, plenty of filling delicious, and it felt good being a customer in a company you are part owner of:t_up:

[Habits]

The NZ Govt's new Kiwi Saver provisions exclude Kiwi Saver funds investing in carbon/petroleum industry..... I guess that means Z. GLH.

If $50 cash flew out of the ZEL till and landed on the footpath... would those whose virtues tell them to avoid petroleum investments, pick it up and pocket the money

[Bjauck]

If $50 cash flew out of the ZEL till and landed on the footpath... would those whose virtues tell them to avoid petroleum investments, pick it up and pocket the money I imagine NZG ministers drive cars and fly in aeroplanes made of recycled paper and powered by flux capacitors and would happily add the treasure trove to treasury coffers ;)

[Habits]

A nice juicy big dividend of 14 cps fully imputed totalling 19.4cps credited yesterday by the ZEL team, payable beginning June. Thank you Thank you team.

[nztx]

A nice juicy big dividend of 14 cps fully imputed totalling 19.4cps credited yesterday by the ZEL team, payable beginning June. Thank you Thank you team.

That it is too and looking forward doesn't look too bad either around 23.0 cps - wasn't it ?

if that's likely then ZEL has to be good buying value

[bull....]

might make new lows soon

[winner69]

might make new lows soon

Not that far off eh ...but divie is really good

[Beagle]

Food for thought.
Is the dividend sustainable ?
What is ZEL's track record like with previous dividend forecasts ?
How fast is the tide going out with the switch to EV's ?
How fast are the minnows continuing to erode ZEL's market share ?
Is swimming in what appears to be a steadily outgoing tide worth the risk ?

Forgot...should have also asked...When is a dividend not really a dividend ?

[see weed]

Good news for Z Energy agreed terms for ITS. Also paying not a bad projected div of about 7% to 8% yld. on sp of $2.62c.:)

[jg8512]

Good news for Z Energy agreed terms for ITS. Also paying not a bad projected div of about 7% to 8% yld. on sp of $2.62c.:)

hard to know if it is good news or not ... depends what price they are paying. NZR are making chunky investment

[Beagle]

hard to know if it is good news or not ... depends what price they are paying. NZR are making chunky investment

Had a wee look at the NZR announcement. So opaque and very hard to get excited when they're ostensibly trashing the last major lot of capex investment only very recently undertaken.
As for ZEL, its hard to get excited when you know Gull are direct importing refined fuel from some of the largest and most efficient refineries in the world and ZEL are stuck paying processing fees for an outdated and probably relatively less efficient refiner that's now been reduced to a logistics operator. None of this gives off the smell of a good feed to this dog, (get nauseous just thinking about investing in their smelly old industry). Avoid the whole sunset sector is what I'm doing.

[bottomfeeder]

Had a wee look at the NZR announcement. So opaque and very hard to get excited when they're ostensibly trashing the last major lot of capex investment only very recently undertaken.
As for ZEL, its hard to get excited when you know Gull are direct importing refined fuel from some of the largest and most efficient refineries in the world and ZEL are stuck paying processing fees for an outdated and probably relatively less efficient refiner that's now been reduced to a logistics operator. None of this gives off the smell of a good feed to this dog, (get nauseous just thinking about investing in their smelly old industry). Avoid the whole sunset sector is what I'm doing.

No doubt a lot of investors are thinking the same as you are. Thats why the SP is down and the divie is good. There was a time an investment in Philip Morris was good for the same reason.

[Beagle]

No doubt a lot of investors are thinking the same as you are. Thats why the SP is down and the divie is good. There was a time an investment in Philip Morris was good for the same reason.

One might like to have a good think about the questions posed in post #2095 before investing for any yield ZEL forecasts. I've said enough, if some people think this is a winner, good luck to them.

[bull....]

Thieves, and the fat-fingered, cause grief for Z's Pay by Plate
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/thieves-and-the-fat-fingered-cause-grief-for-zs-pay-by-plate/P65K6UZ5SKL57WIQCJ4DA5STOA/

lol how dumb , drive - offs are already a big problem in petrol stations and they go ahead and make it easier

[bottomfeeder]

I didn't mean to suggest that ZEL is not a good investment, just the opposite. Vehicle service stations are here to stay. Adaption is the key. The supply and demand of what ever will be required will set the price which incudes a profit content. The current low SP just amazes me at the moment. Is this a dump before the pump.

[tim23]

Thieves, and the fat-fingered, cause grief for Z's Pay by Plate
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/thieves-and-the-fat-fingered-cause-grief-for-zs-pay-by-plate/P65K6UZ5SKL57WIQCJ4DA5STOA/

lol how dumb , drive - offs are already a big problem in petrol stations and they go ahead and make it easier

I find it amazing the huge trust operators have in punters ability to pay for the product already in their vehicle, its a bit like a bar tab.

[Habits]

"My thoughts are similar to a number of people who have commented subsequently…

The change out to a full EV fleet will take decades. There are 4m cars in NZ give or take and in a normal year around 150k new cars sold. Even if every new car sold into NZ from this year was an EV it would take 25+ years to change the fleet out. This will happen over a long period of time. Also given NZ is a wafer of world market share and we are a RHD (right hand drive) country in a world dominated by LHD…we typically are bottom priority of any production allocation decisions."

The above quote is from Todd Hunter CEO Turners Automotive posted #6778 on TRA thread. There is currently 300 approx brand new EVs registered each month....will take over 1,100 years to achieve full EV fleet

[bull....]

that dividend is soon to be eaten up by capital loss ?

[see weed]

Had a wee look at the NZR announcement. So opaque and very hard to get excited when they're ostensibly trashing the last major lot of capex investment only very recently undertaken.
As for ZEL, its hard to get excited when you know Gull are direct importing refined fuel from some of the largest and most efficient refineries in the world and ZEL are stuck paying processing fees for an outdated and probably relatively less efficient refiner that's now been reduced to a logistics operator. None of this gives off the smell of a good feed to this dog, (get nauseous just thinking about investing in their smelly old industry). Avoid the whole sunset sector is what I'm doing.
Hi Beagle. I still have a petrol fueled vehicle and don't mind paying a couple of cents more for petrol from Z. Since being a shareholder of ZEL will only go to Z outlets, if possible, to support the company I invested in. How many people on sharetrader still go to a petrol station to full up their tanks? Am getting a nice big fat 14c div next Wednesday.

[Beagle]

Still petrol powered cars here mate. Hope you're doing okay. 378 liter tank in this :eek2:

[nztx]

that dividend is soon to be eaten up by capital loss ?

Only if it's realised

the patient ones may well see a bounce back up on the back of 23.0 cpc forward div ..

[ralph]

Hi Beagle. I still have a petrol fueled vehicle and don't mind paying a couple of cents more for petrol from Z. Since being a shareholder of ZEL will only go to Z outlets, if possible, to support the company I invested in. How many people on sharetrader still go to a petrol station to full up their tanks? Am getting a nice big fat 14c div next Wednesday.
I and most people I know go gull or the cheapest on the day ,even though my shares are with a company that is their rival I cannot justify me paying an extra 5 -10 cents per liter potentially benefiting my share price, & financially it is a more sound investment rather than propping up a company that I have shares in.

[peat]

20c difference around this town today between Gull and Z ....
thats a lot to be screwin people - you think they wont notice?

[Meh]

Gull had their discount day until midday today, which could explain the big difference.
I also notice that when they do these big discount days that the stations have too many people and it is just aweful.
Highly recommend the z share tank. Try buy big at a cheap station around the country then it doesn't matter where you go. Still got 200 litres at $2.05 for 95 from a few months back. Probably bad for my shares though...

[Beagle]

20c difference around this town today between Gull and Z ....
thats a lot to be screwin people - you think they wont notice?

Z consistently significantly more expensive around here than any of the others...and they wonder why they are steadily loosing market share. Their pies and coffee are not a patch on the pies and coffee at BP. I never bother stopping at Z any more.

[see weed]

Who owns BP and Gull, and can I buy shares with them? Z Bombay has nice pies and clean toilets. If Z is 5c dearer that means I pay an extra $2.50c to full up every 2 or 3 weeks, but I don't drink coffee to go every day which over 2 weeks would be $56 at one coffee a day:D.

[peat]

Gull had their discount day until midday today, which could explain the big difference.
I also notice that when they do these big discount days that the stations have too many people and it is just aweful.
Highly recommend the z share tank. Try buy big at a cheap station around the country then it doesn't matter where you go. Still got 200 litres at $2.05 for 95 from a few months back. Probably bad for my shares though...

I only recently finished using 500litres I bought when passing through Hamilton when it was $1.75! Yes I love the sharetank but just like my share portfolio I am running out of things to sell !

If Z cant flex back at Gull on their cheap days then they're too slow.

[ralph]

A good job you do not drink coffee see weed as it would be wild bean everyday see weed its goody stuff ,I go everyday and fill up at gull .

[Jay]

Well around my way GAS, Z and Mobil all 2.25.9, and Pak'n'save is 2.12.7 before any discounts - all nearly within a stones throw of each other, about 2k's away but closer to me than the others (not by much) Caltex at 2.18.9
I think Mobil supply this Pak N save

[Panda-NZ-]

At least Z is NZ owned.

Though in general moving away from importing fuel from overseas "regimes" and using local clean energy makes good sense long term for many good reasons.

[malreid]

Gull had their discount day until midday today, which could explain the big difference.
I also notice that when they do these big discount days that the stations have too many people and it is just aweful.
If you go to a manned Gull site on a discount day they also hand out vouchers for 2 x $5 off $50 and $3 off $30 valid for about 3-4 weeks. For me that's a $4.50-5.00 discount on the day and a further $8-10 at the next fill depending on which vehicle I'm driving. That's on top of the usual 1.5-2.5cpl difference to the nearest Mobil and Z after the loyalty programs are factored in.

I wonder what the average weighted discount liability of Sharetank purchase/balances vs current retail price is? How much are Z having to recognise in the accounts for the value of pre-purchased fuel that eventually has to be replaced at current market?

[X-men]

Lucky I don't use any of these....I fill up with my tap water...

[bull....]

Waitomo Group will run a full-service flagship Waitomo Fuel Stop at the superhub, accessible from the Waikato Expressway via the Ruakura Interchange

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/125308991/locallyfounded-waitomo-group-signed-as-first-retail-tenant-at-ruakura-superhub


moving into the big time

[peat]

I wonder what the average weighted discount liability of Sharetank purchase/balances vs current retail price is? How much are Z having to recognise in the accounts for the value of pre-purchased fuel that eventually has to be replaced at current market?

it will be SFA i reckon.




I think Mobil supply this Pak N save
No, it is Z
it says so at the outlets.

[bottomfeeder]

Dividend went in today. Good returns, if they can keep it up. SP must be recognised as being undervalued.

[Meh]

Only 300 pure electric vehicles being sold in May out of 10,000. I believe this stock has a fair whack of gas left in the tank.

https://www.interest.co.nz/news/110693/passenger-car-sales-posted-their-own-set-new-records-may-buyers-choosing-larger-and

[peat]

Only 300 pure electric vehicles being sold in May out of 10,000. I believe this stock has a fair whack of gas left in the tank.

https://www.interest.co.nz/news/110693/passenger-car-sales-posted-their-own-set-new-records-may-buyers-choosing-larger-and

a little disingenuous to quote the pure electrics only though?


There were 276 new pure electric vehicles sold in May, 120 new PHEVs (plug-in hybrids), and 1,232 new hybrid cars sold in May 2021.
That's a 16% share of all new car sales

I agree though electric car are still struggling and for all the talk we hear about it , few people are putting their money there.
Most popular vehicle FORD RANGER shows style of kiwi vehicle usage.

[Zaphod]

Most popular vehicle FORD RANGER shows style of kiwi vehicle usage.

There is a definite purchasing trend towards SUV's. Even small car models (Yaris, Jazz etc.) now have SUV submodels to capture that market.

[Meh]

Yea - I probably should have included them. But my thinking then was that even though a vehicle is a hybrid, they still turn up to a petrol station. Even though this may be occuring in larger intervals to ICE vehicles.

[Beagle]

Only 300 pure electric vehicles being sold in May out of 10,000. I believe this stock has a fair whack of gas left in the tank.

https://www.interest.co.nz/news/110693/passenger-car-sales-posted-their-own-set-new-records-may-buyers-choosing-larger-and

Thanks for the link which encapsulates what is a very interesting current situation in N.Z. with consumers spending like there is no tomorrow.
The range of electric vehicles coming over the next few years from Ford, Kia, the VW group, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Jaguar, Honda, Tesla and Toyota to name just a few will significantly accelerate the trend towards EV's. Most won't be especially affordable but that doesn't seem to matter all that much to consumers at the moment. The tide is just beginning to go out on ICE powered cars...but I believe the speed of change will significantly accelerate in the years directly ahead and by the late 2020's the change will be really noticeable. In tandem with that the fuel "minnows" which are not so small anymore, will keep persistently growing and eating away at Z's market share.

On top of all that the shift towards hybrid's and plug in hybrids will also mean less visits to the service station for those customers which means less pies and coffee sold.

Its difficult to make progress swimming against an outgoing tide...and its the same with investing.

[winner69]

Thanks for the link which encapsulates what is a very interesting current situation in N.Z. with consumers spending like there is no tomorrow.
The range of electric vehicles coming over the next few years from Ford, Kia, the VW group, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Jaguar, Honda, Tesla and Toyota to name just a few will significantly accelerate the trend towards EV's. Most won't be especially affordable but that doesn't seem to matter all that much to consumers at the moment. The tide is just beginning to go out on ICE powered cars...but I believe the speed of change will significantly accelerate in the years directly ahead and by the late 2020's the change will be really noticeable. In tandem with that the fuel "minnows" which are not so small anymore, will keep persistently growing and eating away at Z's market share.

On top of all that the shift towards hybrid's and plug in hybrids will also mean less visits to the service station for those customers which means less pies and coffee sold.

Its difficult to make progress swimming against an outgoing tide...and its the same with investing.

...and don't forget the huge subsidies the 'rich' are going to get for buying an EV

Government will look after us

[bottomfeeder]

Meantime we just keep filling up with gasoline. Z has still got lots of time to transition to EV servicing and support. Further as full service Gas Stations will still be required for many many years in the future, and they are not going to do it for nothing, prices at the pump must rise to ensure continuing supply. You think Z are sitting back and not making plans for the future viability of the company. I think you are mistaken if you think that they are just going to roll over and die. Further EV seems to be touted as the future. But that's what they said about steam vehicles, until the Ice came of age. It maybe that hydrogen or other fuel cells will become favoured as the new technology. That said I feel the potential changes looking forward have been factored into the SP, at its current level. Meanwhile a half year dividend imputed of net 5.26 percent will suit me fine. Further it will be a lot longer before aeroplanes go electrical, and let's see you seal a road with electricity. Z is in other industries as well.

[dreamcatcher]

Meantime we just keep filling up with gasoline. Z has still got lots of time to transition to EV servicing and support. Further as full service Gas Stations will still be required for many many years in the future, and they are not going to do it for nothing, prices at the pump must rise to ensure continuing supply. You think Z are sitting back and not making plans for the future viability of the company. I think you are mistaken if you think that they are just going to roll over and die. Further EV seems to be touted as the future. But that's what they said about steam vehicles, until the Ice came of age. It maybe that hydrogen or other fuel cells will become favoured as the new technology. That said I feel the potential changes looking forward have been factored into the SP, at its current level. Meanwhile a half year dividend imputed of net 5.26 percent will suit me fine. Further it will be a lot longer before aeroplanes go electrical, and let's see you seal a road with electricity. Z is in other industries as well.

Good summery of industry. Imagine Z will purchase their fuel needs from Singapore refineries instead of Marsden. Becoming more price competitive with those "minnows" who run the unmanned truck stops. Z I visit have full retail sales instore with toilets run by one staff on duty.

Barron's shows insto 8x1 increasing shares
6 Buy
1 Sell

Divvie in bank

[arekaywhy]

Meantime we just keep filling up with gasoline. Z has still got lots of time to transition to EV servicing and support. Further as full service Gas Stations will still be required for many many years in the future, and they are not going to do it for nothing, prices at the pump must rise to ensure continuing supply. You think Z are sitting back and not making plans for the future viability of the company. I think you are mistaken if you think that they are just going to roll over and die. Further EV seems to be touted as the future. But that's what they said about steam vehicles, until the Ice came of age. It maybe that hydrogen or other fuel cells will become favoured as the new technology. That said I feel the potential changes looking forward have been factored into the SP, at its current level. Meanwhile a half year dividend imputed of net 5.26 percent will suit me fine. Further it will be a lot longer before aeroplanes go electrical, and let's see you seal a road with electricity. Z is in other industries as well.

That...and there just is not enough stuff on this planet to make all the electric cars that will be needed. Then think about all the transmission line upgrades...substations...house wiring upgrades...physical time it takes to get the electrons into your battery...this is just a no goer.

I don't want to rain on people's parades, but yeah, what the idealistic types in Wellington are trying to sell us just is not there. In the mean time, I'm super excited about the technology we are seeing, and milking the energy companies at every opportunity, especially while they are out of favour...

[see weed]

Good Returns 4/6/21. Z Energy rose 2.7% to $2.65c today. Forsyth Barr analysts pointed to the stock as one of the earnings season success stories, with the stock outperforming the market by as much as 10%.

[Arthur]

That...and there just is not enough stuff on this planet to make all the electric cars that will be needed. Then think about all the transmission line upgrades...substations...house wiring upgrades...physical time it takes to get the electrons into your battery...this is just a no goer.

I don't want to rain on people's parades, but yeah, what the idealistic types in Wellington are trying to sell us just is not there. In the mean time, I'm super excited about the technology we are seeing, and milking the energy companies at every opportunity, especially while they are out of favour...
Norway seems to cope OK with the vast majority of their new sales being EVs

[Habits]

I dont fully understand why full service stations would encourage customers to use pay in car apps or pay at pump eftpos. Today after 5pm the only way to get gas was pay at pump(at a non zel station). Because I needed food and drink for the long drive home I went inside the shop for pie and pepsi. But I almost did not bother with the extras, I could have got back in my vehicle, saved money, time and waistline

[ralph]

TO True Habits , it is such a competitive market they are all grasping at straws probably why shell dumped it ,(to early in my opinion).




I dont fully understand why full service stations would encourage customers to use pay in car apps or pay at pump eftpos. Today after 5pm the only way to get gas was pay at pump(at a non zel station). Because I needed food and drink for the long drive home I went inside the shop for pie and pepsi. But I almost did not bother with the extras, I could have got back in my vehicle, saved money, time and waistline

[X-men]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/the-feebate-govt-confirms-rebates-for-buyers-of-electric-cars-but-petrol-car-buyers-will-cop-it/TEJ3V5CF72YFTT5NPQTOWJ3AAE/

Taft time for Zel's future

[nztx]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/the-feebate-govt-confirms-rebates-for-buyers-of-electric-cars-but-petrol-car-buyers-will-cop-it/TEJ3V5CF72YFTT5NPQTOWJ3AAE/

Taft time for Zel's future


It's hard not to like Seymour when he comes out with assessment of the emissions from the
Zombie excuses parked up on the opposite side of the house:



"The people who benefit will be higher-income earners who now don't have to pay as much for a Tesla. We don't think it's fair to make tradies pay more for a Hilux so wealthy executives can get a discount on their next electric car."

Act leader David Seymour also said the 'feebate' scheme amounted to "taxing the tradies to subsidise Teslas."

Under the scheme, somebody buying a $75,000 Tesla Model 3 EV would get a $8625 discount – although the higher-end Tesla and electric cars which cost more than $80,000 do not qualify for it.

A farmer buying a Toyota Hilux would be stung with a $2,900 fee.

Seymour said it amounted to a new tax on tradies, farmers and others who needed bigger vehicles for which there were limited or no electric vehicle options. He said that would include those with large families.

"The social justice wing of the Green Party should ask why the party is prepared to tax people who drive cheap, reliable cars, just so the well-off environmental wing can buy a Tesla."

He said drivers of petrol cars already effectively subsidised electric car drivers through petrol taxes, the emissions trading system tax, and road user charges.

[Dlownz]

Cry me a river.
Its nessesary to push change by putting charges onto higher emission vehicles in order to get people to look at evs or less emmission vehicles.
I hear a lot of inaccuracies about electric cars which are not true.
Your just lucky I'm not in power or everyone would be crying about the extra taxes I'd put in.
First one would be a tax on all housing. Regardless if it's your family home. Only way to close a loop hole is tax everyone
Mike Hosking would be ****ting bricks.
Lol

[nztx]

I can really see Crumpy enjoying taking an EV for fast spin up the mountain ;)
More likely a bigger splat on the way .. then it probably wont go ..
Bu99er or it's properly bu99ered .. ;)

All these focused folk who like the EV discount still buying stuff from the land of 1200 million ? ;)
can't be many that aren't or wont be - will there

The bad news: - you're still aiding & abetting real bad emissions levels until such time as
Leaders up north stop playing tiddlywinks on their emissions levels .. ;)

I don't think EV or otherwise will make a lot of difference to TRA or other secondhand dealers

There's still lots of biz likely for some time for Z ahead too ..

The likely market for EV's probably suggests they're up for a fair share of urban dings, crunches
and crumbles.. Most will regard them as toy cars - many looking for the Petro etc

Maybe Labour's next budget may include a 100% subsidy for all Bene's to change over,
but frankly will that happen ? .. the free house promised for everyone has still yet to materialise ;)

A lot of value depreciation will be lost between first few sequential owners
then what .. what needs replacing after a certain distance - battery or what else ? ;)

[Waiuta]

I think that tax should be on every real estate sale, houses, farms and all commercial. No exceptions.

[Habits]

I think that tax should be on every real estate sale, houses, farms and all commercial. No exceptions.

Its not so get over it. And its interesting how there are people who complain about house prices increasing but also gloat about their gains from gold, crypto and shares. They also demand bigger and bigger paychecks for the same work and think its in isolation. Not saying you do that Waiuta

[see weed]

When we have all battery vehicles and no petrol vehicles, how many millions of petrol tax dollars going to be lost. Will they start taxing EVs?

[winner69]

No new taxes seeweed

[bottomfeeder]

No new taxes seeweed

Duplicate post, sorry. St is so slow these days.

[bottomfeeder]

No new taxes seeweed

Always new taxes, maybe not today or next week.

Ev feebate will affect service stations, but ZEL, has already had that factored in the SP. Let's see Boeing or Airbus put a decent size E plane in the air. Still other parts to ZEL business. Opportune time to buy more ZEL, when the SP, hits rock bottom soon.

[bullfrog]

When we have all battery vehicles and no petrol vehicles, how many millions of petrol tax dollars going to be lost. Will they start taxing EVs?

yep, extend the RUC from diesels to EV, now there is a company that specialises in RUC solutions on the NZX…

[Beagle]

Moves announced on the weekend will speed up the shift to EV's whether ZEL shareholders like it or not.
From 1 July 2021 you can get a brand new small SUV EV for just on $40,000 after the EV rebate complete with 5 years warranty, liquid cooled battery with an 8 year battery warranty with guaranteed residual of 70% battery life after 8 years. e.g. https://mgmotor.co.nz/models/mg-zsev/

Its a game changer whether ZEL shareholders want to admit it or not. The speed of the outgoing tide affecting ZEL is set to get faster and faster as more and more manufactures release more and more EV's that after taking into account the Govt incentive and much cheaper running cost make more and more sense to increasing numbers of Kiwi's.

[bullfrog]

Moves announced on the weekend will speed up the shift to EV's whether ZEL shareholders like it or not.
From 1 July 2021 you can get a brand new small SUV EV for just on $40,000 after the EV rebate complete with 5 years warranty, liquid cooled battery with an 8 year battery warranty with guaranteed residual of 70% battery life after 8 years. e.g. https://mgmotor.co.nz/models/mg-zsev/

Its a game changer whether ZEL shareholders want to admit it or not. The speed of the outgoing tide affecting ZEL is set to get faster and faster as more and more manufactures release more and more EV's that after taking into account the Govt incentive and much cheaper running cost make more and more sense to increasing numbers of Kiwi's.

Wonder how all those voters with on street parking are feeling, they’ll be a rush on extension leads in Wellington.

I reckon there’s a fair few years left in petrol, especially with medium density housing developments with a single garage (usually stuffed with stuff) and 2 cars.

[ScrappyO]

Moves announced on the weekend will speed up the shift to EV's whether ZEL shareholders like it or not.
From 1 July 2021 you can get a brand new small SUV EV for just on $40,000 after the EV rebate complete with 5 years warranty, liquid cooled battery with an 8 year battery warranty with guaranteed residual of 70% battery life after 8 years. e.g. https://mgmotor.co.nz/models/mg-zsev/

That Battery Life just doesnt excite me. Give me a petrol car any day.

[Beagle]

That Battery Life just doesnt excite me. Give me a petrol car any day.

Guaranteed maximum of 30% battery depletion after 8 years and 160,000 km's has become best practice industry standard since Jaguar introduced it with the I Pace. I would say most petrol car engines are more than 30% "used up" by that point.

Longer is available with the new Mercedes Benz EQS which is their new electric version of the S Class but at a very different price point ;)
10 year and a whopping 250,000 km's and guaranteed no more than 30% battery depletion after all that time and distance, now there's a new standard for ya, got a spare $200,000 later this year ?

[Beagle]

That Battery Life just doesnt excite me. Give me a petrol car any day.

Guaranteed maximum of 30% battery depletion after 8 years and 160,000 km's has become best practice industry standard since Jaguar introduced it with the I Pace. I would say most petrol car engines are more than 30% "used up" by that point.

Longer is available with the new Mercedes Benz EQS which is their new electric version of the S Class but at a very different price point ;)
10 year and a whopping 250,000 km's and guaranteed no more than 30% battery depletion after all that time and distance, now there's a new standard for ya, got a spare $200,000 later this year ?

[see weed]

Guaranteed maximum of 30% battery depletion after 8 years and 160,000 km's has become best practice industry standard since Jaguar introduced it with the I Pace. I would say most petrol car engines are more than 30% "used up" by that point.

Longer is available with the new Mercedes Benz EQS which is their new electric version of the S Class but at a very different price point ;)
10 year and a whopping 250,000 km's and guaranteed no more than 30% battery depletion after all that time and distance, now there's a new standard for ya, got a spare $200,000 later this year ?
Sometimes st is so slow, it tricks you to putting in two identical posts. it did that to me last week. Beagle do you have any idea of new battery cost for an ev, or would it be better to buy a new ev every 6-8years. ps if the next ZEL div is 7c plus last div of 14c, that is 21c for the year which is a bit over 8% yld. at $2.56c. I think it will take a few years to phase out pvs..... cars, trucks, boats, planes, tractors, bulldozers, graders, and lots of others I can't think of at the moment.

[Benny1]

When we have all battery vehicles and no petrol vehicles, how many millions of petrol tax dollars going to be lost. Will they start taxing EVs?
RUC's will be introduced, as far as I know it's already in the legislation once the ev fleet reaches a certain % if the total vehicle fleet...so no new taxes as it's already in there!

[see weed]

RUC's will be introduced, as far as I know it's already in the legislation once the ev fleet reaches a certain % if the total vehicle fleet...so no new taxes as it's already in there!
Well that's good to know. The new tax is set up and evs are not paying until certain % is reached. If it takes 5 or 10 years to get to the certain %, then I don't mind waiting and receiving 8%+ yld in divs.

[Beagle]

Sometimes st is so slow, it tricks you to putting in two identical posts. it did that to me last week. Beagle do you have any idea of new battery cost for an ev, or would it be better to buy a new ev every 6-8years. ps if the next ZEL div is 7c plus last div of 14c, that is 21c for the year which is a bit over 8% yld. at $2.56c. I think it will take a few years to phase out pvs..... cars, trucks, boats, planes, tractors, bulldozers, graders, and lots of others I can't think of at the moment.

Hi see weed.
Each vehicle manufacturer should be able to quote you the price of a replacement battery now, (at the time you are considering purchasing the car) which will vary a lot based on the size of the battery and the materials encasing it. Perhaps more important is what is the future replacement cost likely to be ? I saw an interesting presentation from Ford the other day on expected battery costs and they are expecting the price to go down from (and this is from memory) about $U.S170 a Kw/hr now to about $U.S.90 Kw/hr in the next decade. How much of those cost savings will they pass on ? I would suggest they will apply opportunistic pricing to any spare part of an EV, especially the battery so I would suggest, very little, if any.

One is best to consider the price of a replacement battery as quoted by the distributor at the time of purchase as unlikely to decline by much.
Expected battery life. Now there's a real can of worms. For what its worth here are my thoughts.
1. Look closely at the guarantee. The industry standard is now 8 years and 160,000 km's with a guaranteed minimum residual capacity of 70%.
2. Get as much technical detail as you can about the cooling system of the battery and the EV motor(s). If they're running a really good liquid cooling system you might get significantly longer than 8 years useable life from your battery.
3. Think carefully about the real world range and ask yourself is that practical for my purposes as the battery gradually loses capacity.

That vehicle I posted a link for yesterday is quite possibly a game changer for urban users. At just a smidge over $40K. Claims of range of over 300 km's in city use, 8 year battery warranty with minimum 70% residual means even after 8 years it will be doing around 200 km's, (which is heaps for city use) as a guaranteed minimum which suggests a useful life of well over 10 years, perhaps as much as 15 years.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I’m not a ZEL shareholder, but I think they are showing potential and are the closest of the petrol retailers in embracing electric vehicles.

from launching into electrify retailing, to installing EV chargers at their petrol stations, they seem to be moving in the right direction.

I think Z maybe correctly see their existence from a jobs-to-be-done perspective, which in their case is providing the energy needed to power their customers, whether that is derived from oil or electricity. There will still be a need to “refuel” vehicles, no matter the power source.

[sb9]

I’m not a ZEL shareholder, but I think they are showing potential and are the closest of the petrol retailers in embracing electric vehicles.

from launching into electrify retailing, to installing EV chargers at their petrol stations, they seem to be moving in the right direction.

I think Z maybe correctly see their existence from a jobs-to-be-done perspective, which in their case is providing the energy needed to power their customers, whether that is derived from oil or electricity. There will still be a need to “refuel” vehicles, no matter the power source.

Well said. ASM in couple days on Thu 17th will shed more light on their future plans.

[bottomfeeder]

Toyota is not bringing Ev hilux into NZ, for two years as they feel battery technology has not matured enough. IC or hybrids, are not going anytime soon and will be around for years to come. What's the bet one of the oil companies reliant only on petrol pumps will leave NZ rather than Z going broke. Then the market share will be greater. Still have confidence that Z as a New Zealand company will be here to stay, for a long time to come. I see fuel prices increasing if volumes across the board start decreasing.

[bottomfeeder]

Moves announced on the weekend will speed up the shift to EV's whether ZEL shareholders like it or not.
From 1 July 2021 you can get a brand new small SUV EV for just on $40,000 after the EV rebate complete with 5 years warranty, liquid cooled battery with an 8 year battery warranty with guaranteed residual of 70% battery life after 8 years. e.g. https://mgmotor.co.nz/models/mg-zsev/

Its a game changer whether ZEL shareholders want to admit it or not. The speed of the outgoing tide affecting ZEL is set to get faster and faster as more and more manufactures release more and more EV's that after taking into account the Govt incentive and much cheaper running cost make more and more sense to increasing numbers of Kiwi's.

Still the capital cost, is way above that of a new IC car, running costs for a family runabout are minor when you do very few ks. I live at the Mount, our car is three years old and only done 10 thousand ks. And that is because we were teavelljng to Rotorua quite a bit on business. So running costs are a small part of our costs. It is false economy sometimes to buy an EV, when at the battery life left in an EV will define the capital loss made on resale or trade in. Jump on the bandwagon by all means, but don't think you are going to save money, even with the rebate.

[Beagle]

I’m not a ZEL shareholder, but I think they are showing potential and are the closest of the petrol retailers in embracing electric vehicles.

from launching into electrify retailing, to installing EV chargers at their petrol stations, they seem to be moving in the right direction.

I think Z maybe correctly see their existence from a jobs-to-be-done perspective, which in their case is providing the energy needed to power their customers, whether that is derived from oil or electricity. There will still be a need to “refuel” vehicles, no matter the power source.

Here's a good question for the annual meeting. What was your total capex spend on installing EV chargers across your national network last year ? Is this less than the annual salary of one person Mike Bennetts the CEO ?
If so, what he is still doing there so called "leading" the company ? I think you might be VERY surprised at how little they are investing. Playing with it while Rome Burns ?

[bottomfeeder]

Here's a good question for the annual meeting. What was your total capex spend on installing EV chargers across your national network last year ? Is this less than the annual salary of one person Mike Bennetts the CEO ?
If so, what he is still doing there so called "leading" the company ? I think you might be VERY surprised at how little they are investing. Playing with it while Rome Burns ?

Only install Ev ports as demand requires. Why spend mega buck on Ev ports and spaces when only a minor part of nz cars are Ev.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Toyota is not bringing Ev hilux into NZ, for two years as they feel battery technology has not matured enough. IC or hybrids, are not going anytime soon and will be around for years to come. What's the bet one of the oil companies reliant only on petrol pumps will leave NZ rather than Z going broke. Then the market share will be greater. Still have confidence that Z as a New Zealand company will be here to stay, for a long time to come. I see fuel prices increasing if volumes across the board start decreasing.

lol at Toyota. The reason Toyota won’t be bringing EVs to NZ (of any type) anytime soon is not because of battery “maturity” - it’s because they are 5-10 years behind everyone else with their EV plans, and have zero battery supply installed. They made a stupid bet on hydrogen that has backfired disastrously.

[jg8512]

Here's a good question for the annual meeting. What was your total capex spend on installing EV chargers across your national network last year ? Is this less than the annual salary of one person Mike Bennetts the CEO ?
If so, what he is still doing there so called "leading" the company ? I think you might be VERY surprised at how little they are investing. Playing with it while Rome Burns ?

but how many EV drivers do (or would want to) re-charge at a petrol station? internationally the percentage is something like 5-10% (most would do so at Home, or while shopping). If Z spends lots of dosh on EV chargers aren't they just throwing away money?

[Beagle]

The question is, does ZEL want to try and get "ahead of the EV demand curve" and carve out a niche as the place to go to charge your EV and thereby leverage its snacks and beverage business or will some other retailer like BP (which is known to have a superior food and beverage business), carve out an even bigger slice of the market ?

Surely questions need to be asked when Mike Bennetts salary just for one person is a multiple of many times the total annual spend on EV charging infrastructure for their entire national network ?

I agree 100% about the Toyota N.Z. CEO's comments. They were pathetic. Its quite obvious Toyota are many years behind many other manufacturers with their EV products.

[winner69]

Subsidy fiasco might just be a storm in a teacup and not do too much to change current behaviours.

I keep hearing that the EV subsidy/tax scheme will not make a jot of difference to total emissions....because under the ETS emissions are capped

No idea how this works but several learned people are saying that

[sb9]

Subsidy fiasco might just be a storm in a teacup and not do too much to change current behaviours.

I keep hearing that the EV subsidy/tax scheme will not make a jot of difference to total emissions....because under the ETS emissions are capped

No idea how this works but several learned people are saying that

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/governments-ev-feebate-plan-may-backfire-retailer/WNHYTXGBIILUJZGEXASRXIT6RY/
Government's EV 'feebate' plan may backfire - retailer

[winner69]

some commentary i came across said this - is probably quite true -

[The EV scheme is waste of time and virtue signalling silliness. Nothing to do with emissions/climate change, and everything to do with using the coercive powers of the state to subsidise lifestyle preferences of ministers and their mates, and taxing those they happen not to like,

[arekaywhy]

This I heard is robably quite true -

[The EV scheme is waste of time and virtue signalling silliness. Nothing to do with emissions/climate change, and everything to do with using the coercive powers of the state to subsidise lifestyle preferences of ministers and their mates, and taxing those they happen not to like,


*sharp inhale* shocked! shocked I tell you!

[winner69]

*sharp inhale* shocked! shocked I tell you!

why you shocked

[arekaywhy]

why you shocked


Sorry, should have come with a massive helping of sarcasm

[ScrappyO]

The question is, does ZEL want to try and get "ahead of the EV demand curve" and carve out a niche as the place to go to charge your EV and thereby leverage its snacks and beverage business or will some other retailer like BP (which is known to have a superior food and beverage business), carve out an even bigger slice of the market ?

Surely questions need to be asked when Mike Bennetts salary just for one person is a multiple of many times the total annual spend on EV charging infrastructure for their entire national network ?

I agree 100% about the Toyota N.Z. CEO's comments. They were pathetic. Its quite obvious Toyota are many years behind many other manufacturers with their EV products.

Maybe they need to use the profits they have now and build wind farms in a JV

[nztx]

Maybe they need to use the profits they have now and build wind farms in a JV


perhaps a KFC JV might be just what the Doctor ordered (& if that goes well add more similar) ;)

Nothing like further capturing further captives with their captive dollars & mostly an audience
that probably doesn't give a hoot about getting EV-ed .. ;)

[Zaphod]

Toyota is not bringing Ev hilux into NZ, for two years as they feel battery technology has not matured enough. .

There is no EV Hilux in existence to bring into NZ at this time. Toyota (globally) have stated that they are looking to develop a full EV model, but that it is likely to be several years away before anything is released internationally. There is however more clarity around a hybrid or PHEV Hilux, but even that could be a few years away from being released to any market let alone NZ.

Toyota are reasonably close to releasing a full EV SUV (BZ4X), and are likely to follow other mainstream manufacturers such as Honda with a small EV car.

[Beagle]

Shareholders should consider the 19cps bottom end of current guidance to be reliable under
almost any foreseeable circumstances. Extract from Bennetts address at annual meeting. (This suggests a gross yield of ~ 10% as a minimum is sustainable for the foreseeable future)

Lot of talk about dividend sustainability but investors would do well to consider their very patchy track record with dividend payments.

My thoughts are best summed up with the old cliché "Talk is cheap".

[bottomfeeder]

The feebate scheme will be modified or scrapped as the import of second hand vehicles propels meteorically, targeting the rebate. We are going to become a dumping ground for near useless battery packs and vehicles that are not worth replacing batteries. The government is actually subsidising those countries getting rid of a stockpile of unsellable secondhand ev's.

[bottomfeeder]

I see Toyota is working on hydrogen technology. Uses existing ICE engine with modifications. Perhaps this will be the way of the future, instead of electric.

[Zaphod]

I see Toyota is working on hydrogen technology. Uses existing ICE engine with modifications. Perhaps this will be the way of the future, instead of electric.

IMO there's a niche market for hydrogen, potentially, in trucks/trains or perhaps aircraft, but I think the deck is stacked against mass adoption of hydrogen powered cars using either the converted ICE or a similarly inefficient fuel cell. There's some opportunity there for Zel.

[dreamcatcher]

More positives for Z's jet fuel business.

Air New Zealand is resuming passenger services to Taiwan for the first time since the pandemic began.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/125546363/air-nz-resumes-taiwan-passenger-service-for-first-time-since-pandemic-began

[Arthur]

L1 CAPITAL PTY LTD buying in. They have a pretty good track record in their long short fund.

[sb9]

L1 CAPITAL PTY LTD buying in. They have a pretty good track record in their long short fund.

Yep, encouraging sign with new large player onto Registry.

And seems as though somone is happy to pay above current market price for a big lot.



270
2,628,257
12:16
SP

[dreamcatcher]

Extra 4M sold already today..............

[tim23]

Extra 4M sold already today..............

And bought of course to balance the equation, have we seen a bottom on this stock?

[tim23]

Extra 4M sold already today..............

And bought of course to balance the equation, have we seen a bottom on this stock?

[The diver]

I suspect so given they bought that many shares 5 cents higher than the sp was at the time.

[tim23]

I suspect so given they bought that many shares 5 cents higher than the sp was at the time.

If they can execute plans $3 next stop and you are well insulated with dividend.

[dreamcatcher]

MA 50day $2.65 - MA 100day $2,72 - MA 200day $2.87

[Louloubell]

I topped up today, as you can see in the volume of shares traded. 😉

[nztx]

I topped up today, as you can see in the volume of shares traded. ��


You can't claim all the credit -- think some of those were mine .. ;)

[dreamcatcher]

L1 added another 10M to their holding

SPH Notice – L1 CAPITAL PTY LTD - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/375128)

[sb9]

L1 added another 10M to their holding

SPH Notice – L1 CAPITAL PTY LTD - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/375128)

I think new model of NZ refining as Import Terminal also helps Z indirectly. No wonder L1 Capital see value here.

[bottomfeeder]

Every time I see an article about ev's, the SP drops. I can't see a big recovery in the SP, to dizzying heights, but can see ZEL, fine tuning operations and cost cutting, removing unprofitable aspects etc. That will leave this investment as a brilliant dividend earner, for some time to come. I wonder which other oil company will be the next to leave NZ. BP or Mobil. We are a small market for them anyway. Good for ZEL. Higher fuel prices at the pump good for ZEL. I am retaining this investment.

[Rawz]

Every time I see an article about ev's, the SP drops. I can't see a big recovery in the SP, to dizzying heights, but can see ZEL, fine tuning operations and cost cutting, removing unprofitable aspects etc. That will leave this investment as a brilliant dividend earner, for some time to come. I wonder which other oil company will be the next to leave NZ. BP or Mobil. We are a small market for them anyway. Good for ZEL. Higher fuel prices at the pump good for ZEL. I am retaining this investment.

Isn't your thinking the classic dividend trap?

[bottomfeeder]

Yep and I like it.

[winner69]

TAKEOVER ALERT

.
AFR says the “bombed-out fuel retailer’ Z may have received some takeover offers

[Meh]

Where there is smoke there is ��������.

[Meh]

Fire emojis didn't work...

[HCR20]

Does Z own a stake in Flick? I am a customer and last week I got an email saying they aren't taking on any new customers. Essentially, they are loosing too much money because spot price futures are too expensive.

[bottomfeeder]

TAKEOVER ALERT

.
AFR says the “bombed-out fuel retailer’ Z may have received some takeover offers

I think that the article was misleading. Generally if a takeover offer was put forward, the board would have to put it out in the public arena, even though they don't support it. With continuous disclosure rules this would be material information, which would have to be disclosed no matter how serious. I think there may have been interest in a division or a subsidiary business only, which may be a whole different kettle of fish.

PS didn't read the article, probably pay walled. AFR?

[winner69]

I think that the article was misleading. Generally if a takeover offer was put forward, the board would have to put it out in the public arena, even though they don't support it. With continuous disclosure rules this would be material information, which would have to be disclosed no matter how serious. I think there may have been interest in a division or a subsidiary business only, which may be a whole different kettle of fish.

PS didn't read the article, probably pay walled. AFR?

Not always the need to say anything if an ‘offer’ is made

If media keep pushing the story ZEL might feel they need to deny / confirm it

AFR quite ‘influential’

[peat]

no confirmation in Mikes release this morning.

[winner69]

no confirmation in Mikes release this morning.

with a presentation like todays anybody would be stupid to accept 6 bucks .... maybe 5 bucks tempting

[Grimy]

Does Z own a stake in Flick? I am a customer and last week I got an email saying they aren't taking on any new customers. Essentially, they are loosing too much money because spot price futures are too expensive.

Yes they do.

[sb9]

Might hit 3 handle today on back of investor presentation y'day.

[peat]

Unsurprisingly Z has a different view on transition to low carbon within the NZ economy than the Climate Change Commission. However if I'm going to be running petrol till as least 2029 (I like to get 10 years from a car) then a truckload of other people will also be doing it. So I suspect the CCC is more wishing that actualising.

However I note

Full time equivalent headcount was down 20%, or more than 120, from the December 2019 high, partly due to Z giving up on its strategy of concierge forecourt services delivering a greater margin and a move back to competitive pricing.
It said data shows Z discounted purchases are on par or lower than unmanned pricing. Market share decline had flattened and Z was clustered with most other brands for price perception.

I simply dont see this move back to competitive pricing.
And would also comment that in my view the other brands seem to have stopped being so aggressive in pricing cf Z but cannot see Z being relatively lower than they were before - all a bit anecdotal anecshmotal tho so all fwiw.

[Louloubell]

I'm quite excited about NZ Refinery stopping their core business. Doesn't this mean that all companies have to buy petrol etc and import it? This will improve the competitive position of Z and put it on an equal footing with the small players.

[Beagle]

Unsurprisingly Z has a different view on transition to low carbon within the NZ economy than the Climate Change Commission. However if I'm going to be running petrol till as least 2029 (I like to get 10 years from a car) then a truckload of other people will also be doing it. So I suspect the CCC is more wishing that actualising.

However I note

Full time equivalent headcount was down 20%, or more than 120, from the December 2019 high, partly due to Z giving up on its strategy of concierge forecourt services delivering a greater margin and a move back to competitive pricing.
It said data shows Z discounted purchases are on par or lower than unmanned pricing. Market share decline had flattened and Z was clustered with most other brands for price perception.

I simply dont see this move back to competitive pricing.
And would also comment that in my view the other brands seem to have stopped being so aggressive in pricing cf Z but cannot see Z being relatively lower than they were before - all a bit anecdotal anecshmotal tho so all fwiw.

91 Octane - Local Gull today was $2.169 and the Z around the corner was $2.309 after the 6 cent so called loyalty scam discount. Sorry there's no chocolate fish prize for guessing which station I stopped at to fill my car.

[sb9]

Wonder what's the comparable price down the road in other major fuel companies like BP and Mobil..

Btw, Gull has 12c discount promotion today and until midday tomorrow.

So, their comparable non-discount price is $2.289, not far from Z's $2.309, sometimes it pays to check full facts.

[Beagle]

Wonder what's the comparable price down the road in other major fuel companies like BP and Mobil..

Btw, Gull has 12c discount promotion today and until midday tomorrow.

So, their comparable non-discount price is $2.289, not far from Z's $2.309, sometimes it pays to check full facts.

All I reported on was today's observations.

[Beagle]

I see you are posting on ZEL. Might add my two cents - local Z station has been hidden away on Rangitikei Line with very few customers over the years. Very poor sighting from the get-go. Their prices are always last to change and usually on-par with price gougers extraordinaire BP. We have recently had an NPD station built on the same road which is a whopping 20 cents cheaper for 91, 25 cents cheaper for 95 and 30 cents cheaper for 100 (equivalent 98). There has been little price change from the local BP and ZEL, but I decided to quit my loyalty to Caltex and their app scheme and go whole hog with NPD if prices are that much different.

There has been a lineup every night I come home now and it isn't slowing down as people realise they shouldn't be having their eyes gouged out by 10%+ when they pull up to a pump. The shift towards autonomy and lower prices is being keenly felt as the cost of living continues to escalate (see: ComCom absolutely destroying the food duopoly today, not to mention the insane price of rent/housing...).

Sense Partners (Samuel Eaqub) also put out this report recently, which puts it into a bit of stark contrast: https://www.npd.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Sense-Partners-The-Curious-Case-of-Auckland-Fuel-Prices.pdf

ZEL are having their lunches eaten and I cannot see their "turnaround" strategy doing much unless it is to lower their prices drastically.

Post this on ST if you like 👍

[bottomfeeder]

I see you are posting on ZEL. Might add my two cents - local Z station has been hidden away on Rangitikei Line with very few customers over the years. Very poor sighting from the get-go. Their prices are always last to change and usually on-par with price gougers extraordinaire BP. We have recently had an NPD station built on the same road which is a whopping 20 cents cheaper for 91, 25 cents cheaper for 95 and 30 cents cheaper for 100 (equivalent 98). There has been little price change from the local BP and ZEL, but I decided to quit my loyalty to Caltex and their app scheme and go whole hog with NPD if prices are that much different.

There has been a lineup every night I come home now and it isn't slowing down as people realise they shouldn't be having their eyes gouged out by 10%+ when they pull up to a pump. The shift towards autonomy and lower prices is being keenly felt as the cost of living continues to escalate (see: ComCom absolutely destroying the food duopoly today, not to mention the insane price of rent/housing...).

Sense Partners (Samuel Eaqub) also put out this report recently, which puts it into a bit of stark contrast: https://www.npd.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Sense-Partners-The-Curious-Case-of-Auckland-Fuel-Prices.pdf

ZEL are having their lunches eaten and I cannot see their "turnaround" strategy doing much unless it is to lower their prices drastically.

Post this on ST if you like 👍

Years ago, I had a client with a service station in a regional main highway, through road town. Only one other service station in the town and a price war started. I suggested to my client, increase your prices and rely upon your service, shop, and food availability. It wasn't long that the other (desperate) station went broke. They are not price gouging. Its tough out there.

[Beagle]

Years ago, I had a client with a service station in a regional main highway, through road town. Only one other service station in the town and a price war started. I suggested to my client, increase your prices and rely upon your service, shop, and food availability. It wasn't long that the other (desperate) station went broke. They are not price gouging. Its tough out there.

Unsurprisingly people want food, coffee, snacks and a bathroom break when on a road trip.

[peat]

We have recently had an NPD station built on the same road which is a whopping 20 cents cheaper for 91, 25 cents cheaper for 95 and 30 cents cheaper for 100 (equivalent 98). There has been little price change from the local BP and ZEL, but I decided to quit my loyalty to Caltex and their app scheme and go whole hog with NPD if prices are that much different.

There has been a lineup every night I come home now and it isn't slowing down as people realise they shouldn't be having their eyes gouged out by 10%+ when they pull up to a pump.

I assume this is Palmerston North coz yes I filled up at the NPD there last week even though it wasnt on my direct route. 2.09 at the time when everywhere else was 2.20 or higher. Nice large forecourt too .... though it was empty on the Thursday morning...


BUT !!!!! I guess we (if we were to be holding - and I am not right now though did make get a few cents on it trading a position I bought yesterday ) should be happy if Z Energy can maintain volume and hold prices up ??

[Teatree]

Our new npd in Manukau has pretty much same prices as everyone else. There are 7 suppliers in about a 3km stretch. I think I'll do a survey and report back

[Rep]

I filled up the car on Wednesday at the local Caltex which is about a km away with 50 litres of 91 Octane for just under $14.50*.

Yes I'd stacked $2.06 of discounts by doing 21 x $40 fills on 10c days (and one where I'd done one on a 6c day as I'd run short once) so I'd given up my discount on the day to get it at the end of 2 months.
That's across both cars - mine and my wife's (about 415 litres between 2 cars over June and July) usually filling up on Wednesdays every fortnight when it's 10 cents off a litre.

But my average price per litre across the 2 months was 25.3 cents less than the pump price and about $2.03/litre and the discount was $103.00 - if I'd simply did my fills and not stacked I'd have saved $41 off the pump price with the 10 cents but netted another $62 by just making the habit of doing multiple $40 fills on those days but it's $78 better than just taking the 6c off any other day.

Is it worth the effort? I think so - it's certainly easier than going out of my way to fill the car further away at one of the others and achieving close to $2 per litre - just takes a little discipline.

*If I take into account the Amex Turbo Rewards on fuel purchases and their current pay with points promo, I got another $11.11 off the cost of the fuel over the two months so it actually only cost me $3.40 for the 50 litres!

[bottomfeeder]

I filled up the car on Wednesday at the local Caltex which is about a km away with 50 litres of 91 Octane for just under $14.50*.

Yes I'd stacked $2.06 of discounts by doing 21 x $40 fills on 10c days (and one where I'd done one on a 6c day as I'd run short once) so I'd given up my discount on the day to get it at the end of 2 months.
That's across both cars - mine and my wife's (about 415 litres between 2 cars over June and July) usually filling up on Wednesdays every fortnight when it's 10 cents off a litre.

But my average price per litre across the 2 months was 25.3 cents less than the pump price and about $2.03/litre and the discount was $103.00 - if I'd simply did my fills and not stacked I'd have saved $41 off the pump price with the 10 cents but netted another $62 by just making the habit of doing multiple $40 fills on those days but it's $78 better than just taking the 6c off any other day.

Is it worth the effort? I think so - it's certainly easier than going out of my way to fill the car further away at one of the others and achieving close to $2 per litre - just takes a little discipline.

*If I take into account the Amex Turbo Rewards on fuel purchases and their current pay with points promo, I got another $11.11 off the cost of the fuel over the two months so it actually only cost me $3.40 for the 50 litres!

Good savings, but nearly put me to sleep.

[Beagle]

I filled up the car on Wednesday at the local Caltex which is about a km away with 50 litres of 91 Octane for just under $14.50*.

Yes I'd stacked $2.06 of discounts by doing 21 x $40 fills on 10c days (and one where I'd done one on a 6c day as I'd run short once) so I'd given up my discount on the day to get it at the end of 2 months.
That's across both cars - mine and my wife's (about 415 litres between 2 cars over June and July) usually filling up on Wednesdays every fortnight when it's 10 cents off a litre.

But my average price per litre across the 2 months was 25.3 cents less than the pump price and about $2.03/litre and the discount was $103.00 - if I'd simply did my fills and not stacked I'd have saved $41 off the pump price with the 10 cents but netted another $62 by just making the habit of doing multiple $40 fills on those days but it's $78 better than just taking the 6c off any other day.

Is it worth the effort? I think so - it's certainly easier than going out of my way to fill the car further away at one of the others and achieving close to $2 per litre - just takes a little discipline.

*If I take into account the Amex Turbo Rewards on fuel purchases and their current pay with points promo, I got another $11.11 off the cost of the fuel over the two months so it actually only cost me $3.40 for the 50 litres!

I used to do that sort of thing a few years ago and thought I was pretty clever...until I realised how much time I would save if I simply filled my car when the near empty petrol light came on at the cheapest petrol station. It takes a LOT of time and a lot of extra touching of dirty fuel bowsers to make all those stops for small $40 purchases. Additionally this works for you because the station is very close to where you live which is certainly not the case for everyone.

[winner69]

I used to do that sort of thing a few years ago and thought I was pretty clever...until I realised how much time I would save if I simply filled my car when the near empty petrol light came on at the cheapest petrol station. It takes a LOT of time and a lot of extra touching of dirty fuel bowsers to make all those stops for small $40 purchases. Additionally this works for you because the station is very close to where you live which is certainly not the case for everyone.

Good point beagle

Not just touching but also the process of paying …more often than needed = greater risk of catching diseases (or viruses)

[Rep]

Good savings, but nearly put me to sleep.

Saving money is boring.
Young people have Buy Now Pay Later so they don't have to save to get something - they can get it now and pay it off plus not have to have those nasty high interest credit cards.
Then they start incurring late fees... and there's no protection (like finance industry) around ability to pay because it's deregulated.
Also many won't stoop to haggling... (if I haggle, the people at the shop will think I can't afford to pay full price)...

[winner69]

Media still talking takeover and Z not totally denying it

Nothing like takeover talk to boost a sinking share price though…esp if AFR mentions Ampol and others

From BusinessDesk

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/markets/z-shy-over-takeover-talk-as-it-promises-to-do-better-again

[bottomfeeder]

Someone's got to clear the air pretty soon.

[winner69]

Someone's got to clear the air pretty soon.

Maybe just let it rumble away …..you never know one day the share price might have a ‘takeover premium’ built into it

[Master98]

Maybe just let it rumble away …..you never know one day the share price might have a ‘takeover premium’ built into it
I am still in doubt someone will pay a premium price takeover a sunset company.

[nztx]

I am still in doubt someone will pay a premium price takeover a sunset company.

it may be quite a while before everyone gets conditioned in N-ZeaLand to having to ride a pushbike
into the sunset .. remember most of the breeding population appear to have a curious habit of
descending outside schools across the land in their 4x4's to transport their assorted brats to & from home daily . ;)

[ralph]

it may be quite a while before everyone gets conditioned in N-ZeaLand to having to ride a pushbike
into the sunset .. remember most of the breeding population appear to have a curious habit of
descending outside schools across the land in their 4x4's to transport their assorted brats to & from home daily . ;)

To true nztx . I cannot afford to be a green Investor , and do not see any big changes for 10 years plus ,apart from jucinda pissing of the the U N :D with her bestie

[Zaphod]

it may be quite a while before everyone gets conditioned in N-ZeaLand to having to ride a pushbike
into the sunset .. remember most of the breeding population appear to have a curious habit of
descending outside schools across the land in their 4x4's to transport their assorted brats to & from home daily . ;)

The school near my home sees vast quantities of urban SUV's (which are unlikely to see off-road use) double parking as they walk their children hand-in-hand from the vehicle to the school gate. I'm told that it's just too unsafe for children to ride their bikes, catch the bus, or walk as predators are lurking behind every bush (unlike the 'good old days' when everyone was 100% safe.... which was when?) and their children could catch covid from public transport. I'm also told that SUV's are the safest form of transport in an accident. Not if it's another SUV you crash into of course.

Electric self-driving SUV's are apparently the answer. Not really an environmental answer, but oh well I give up.

[ralph]

Electric self-driving SUV's are apparently the answer. Not really an environmental answer, but oh well I give up.[/QUOTE]

That's it Zaphod there is no answer, apart from the Ford Prefect much safer for travel .

[Rep]

The school near my home sees vast quantities of urban SUV's (which are unlikely to see off-road use) double parking as they walk their children hand-in-hand from the vehicle to the school gate. I'm told that it's just too unsafe for children to ride their bikes, catch the bus, or walk as predators are lurking behind every bush (unlike the 'good old days' when everyone was 100% safe.... which was when?) and their children could catch covid from public transport. I'm also told that SUV's are the safest form of transport in an accident. Not if it's another SUV you crash into of course.

Electric self-driving SUV's are apparently the answer. Not really an environmental answer, but oh well I give up.

Originally an SUV meant a sports utility vehicle which was designed for off road use and used a ladder chassis like the old Defender, the Jeep Wrangler, Toyota Landcruiser or the Nissan Patrol - or something like Ford Everest which is based on a utility. Most of the vehicles, you are describing fit into the more fitting US term of 'Crossover' which is based on unitary bodies based on a platform shared with cars - everything from a Nissan Juke (Note), Toyota RAV4 (Corolla), Ford Puma (Fiesta), Toyota Highlander (Camry), Ford Territory (Ford Falcon), Hyundai Tucson (i30), Hyundai Santa Fe (Sonata) to a Audi Q7 or a Urus (A6).

A lot of the crossovers are available in FWD only (the Ford Territory sold plenty of RWD only versions) and have about the same offroad capabilities as their car based brethren apart from slightly more ground clearance - but are better on the road. The AWD variants are better when it rains as they have better traction.

As they use the car platforms, most of the crossovers crash better than their ladder chassis SUVs brethren - and because you tend to sit more upright than a car, they offer better legroom, headroom (ask anyone who's sat in the back of a ZB Commodore sedan what that's like) and luggage space but the blind spot behind and in front is much worse for pedestrians - particularly short ones like children. The alternative which was a station wagon or estate has basically disappeared because no-one buys them any more. The Territory killed off the Falcon SW and despite Commodore arriving with the Sportwagon belatedly (the older versions sold mainly to Telstra and were extra long because Telstra wanted them like that) and the awful Adventra - the even more awful but better selling Holden Captiva (aka the Craptiva) made in the old Daewoo factory in S Korea ensured that the Commodore SW was a niche product.

We walk the older boy to school and home but we live about 750 metres from the local primary school that is well regarded and no busy roads to cross plus we work from home a lot - not everyone has a decent school within walking distance especially if you are struggling to buy a house in the first place in a nicer part of the city. If good urban design allowed for it, then we'd have a lot less cars needing to be driven - meanwhile we allow urban development to happen offering affordable housing away from employment, shops, schools and other amenities - whilst the city transport planners make it harder to get to those amenities.

[Zaphod]

Originally an SUV meant a sports utility vehicle which was designed for off road use and used a ladder chassis like the old Defender, the Jeep Wrangler, Toyota Landcruiser or the Nissan Patrol - or something like Ford Everest which is based on a utility. Most of the vehicles, you are describing fit into the more fitting US term of 'Crossover' which is based on unitary bodies based on a platform shared with cars - everything from a Nissan Juke (Note), Toyota RAV4 (Corolla), Ford Puma (Fiesta), Toyota Highlander (Camry), Ford Territory (Ford Falcon), Hyundai Tucson (i30), Hyundai Santa Fe (Sonata) to a Audi Q7 or a Urus (A6).

Yes, I agree with you on the terms, however I always stick to using the term SUV because not very many people know what a crossover is, including most manufacturers who still advertise their vehicles as SUV’s.

Most of the shift to these common platforms by manufacturers was primarily driven to save costs. Produce one chassis and modify the coachwork & running gear to provide different functions and aesthetics. It’s a smart move.


A lot of the crossovers are available in FWD only (the Ford Territory sold plenty of RWD only versions) and have about the same offroad capabilities as their car based brethren apart from slightly more ground clearance - but are better on the road. The AWD variants are better when it rains as they have better traction.

Crossovers do have more clearance, and you’re right that they’re similar performing to their car based brethren. Although many try to compare them to off-road vehicles, they’re not suited to that type of environment but yet are marketed as such.

As for AWD, granted they can provide better traction in the rain, but do we actually need them in an urban environment? What about the occasional trip up a mountain? Plenty realise that AWD does not equal 4WD as soon as they attempt these latter types of trips. This will probably become a moot point if most electric vehicles are released to market with dual motor drivetrains, which I think is a natural progression.

From a safety aspect, a larger vehicle (including crossovers) makes the driver feel safer, but they are far more prone to rollovers due to the higher centre of gravity. Feeling safer can also engender more risky driving behaviours, so it’s a double edged sword. For those driving smaller vehicles, visibility and overall safety is reduced when interacting with these larger vehicles. Then there’s the environmental cost of constructing and running the larger vehicles with higher resource requirements and lower drag coefficients.

They have their place, but unfortunately many colleagues swap their smaller cars for these larger vehicles for all the wrong reasons.


We walk the older boy to school and home but we live about 750 metres from the local primary school that is well regarded and no busy roads to cross plus we work from home a lot - not everyone has a decent school within walking distance especially if you are struggling to buy a house in the first place in a nicer part of the city. If good urban design allowed for it, then we'd have a lot less cars needing to be driven - meanwhile we allow urban development to happen offering affordable housing away from employment, shops, schools and other amenities - whilst the city transport planners make it harder to get to those amenities.

It's good to see you walking your younger child to school. There are still plenty of options for children to get to school, especially in-zone. Urban public transport (dedicated school or public buses), ride sharing with other parents, walking (including school-organised walking buses), biking, there’s many options even in smaller cities.

Despite this, our neighbour drives a brand new Audi Q8 to the school less than 300m down the road every morning, double parking, to ensure that the kids arrive safely. They join the dozens of other SUV’s including Range Rovers, double parking, parking in the driveways and over yellow lines all in the name of keeping their kids safe. Ironic.

Anyway a bit OT so I better get back to the title of the thread!

[Waiuta]

I'd like to think these SUV's with their short school runs are just what ZED shareholders need.

[peat]

mkt seems to have given up on t/o notions....

[bullfrog]

Didn’t I read that ZEL were pushing their food business, and that the govt believes that there needs to be another food retailer…. Crikey, is ZEL is going to take on 4square! It’s crazy but why not.

[Louloubell]

Positive movement this morning, something up?

[see weed]

ZEL looking strong this morning up 16c as I write:t_up:

[Louloubell]

Is this connected with the NZ Refinery, I think so

[Jim]

ZEL looking strong this morning up 16c as I write:t_up:

This morning news on National radio's was saying that rumours about Amcol is in talks with ZEL. A takeover maybe

[jg8512]

NBR (citing Aussie media) reporting ZEL has appointed goldman sachs to advise it given intensifying takeover interest

[jg8512]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/story/z-energy-calls-goldman-sachs-takeover-interest-intensifies

not sure if it is behind subscription or not

[winner69]

NBR (citing Aussie media) reporting ZEL has appointed goldman sachs to advise it given intensifying takeover interest

It'll happen

[Louloubell]

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/448605/z-energy-in-takeover-sights-of-overseas-companies

[sb9]

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/448605/z-energy-in-takeover-sights-of-overseas-companies

Gotta be at least $4 to get any traction for takeover.