ZEL - Z Energy.

[iceman]

Welcome aboard mate. Based on mid point of divvy forecast of 42.5 cps and the interim one paid of 12.5 cps the next divvy looks like a whopper at 30 cps !
Dividends effectively providing free fuel for the Iceman clan going forward I presume :)

As you know, the majority of our fuel comes of the solar panels but yes the divies will cover the little bit of petrol we use :-)

[peat]

yes, it bodes well for the higher target in time. ($6.85)

still boding like a serious boding thing

[Beagle]

As you know, the majority of our fuel comes of the solar panels but yes the divies will cover the little bit of petrol we use :-)

You're as cunning as a wily fox. I am sure Mrs Iceman will have no trouble dreaming up new idea's to spend the rest of your divvies :)

[winner69]

You're as cunning as a wily fox. I am sure Mrs Iceman will have no trouble dreaming up new idea's to spend the rest of your divvies :)

You pretty cunning as well ....pleased with your 15% return so far with ZEL

[winner69]

This is an interesting read .......On the Ebb and Flow of Luck

https://ofdollarsanddata.com/fickle-fortune/

[bull....]

at this point of time it looks like timely exit yesterday that 6 dollar mark brought out the sellers. maybe because they didnt grab back a huge chunk of the downgrade profits mentioned in nov and the 15m gained back can just as easliy reverse again

[bull....]

guess the div will attract plenty of punters so maybe it will go higher in the immediate future to reflect this even if it still a long term decline so still keep a few

[BlackCross]

Event analysis

Oil Price Relief for No-Moat Z Energy with Earnings Guidance Increased. FVE Upgraded to NZD 8.30.
Z Energy has upwardly revised fiscal 2019 earnings guidance by around 5% to NZD 420-450 million in replacement cost, or RC, EBITDA, accounting for a decline in the crude price and reversal of the price lag. In a falling crude market, Z Energy enjoys better retail and commercial trading conditions as fuel becomes cheaper for customers, and reduced their price-sensitivity shifts consumption towards full-service offerings. Prior to crude's retreat, Z Energy had been experiencing the most challenging operating environment in its eight-year history. But Brent fell 40% to December, from a high of USD 86 to USD 51 per barrel, providing some relief. We recently reiterated earnings detractors were short term in nature only. Recovery is now underway, though not soon enough to completely recover fiscal 2019 earnings. Z Energy previously made two earnings guidance cuts from an original RC EBITDA guidance estimate of NZD 450-485 million. Latest guidance is still around 7% below that original midpoint.

Z says crude markets remain volatile with Brent already having risen back above USD 60. Upgraded guidance assumes crude remains within a range of USD 60-70 per barrel for the remainder of the fiscal year to March. DPS guidance is also increased to NZD 0.38-0.47, inclusive of the interim NZD 0.125 paid in December. Z had previously downgraded DPS to an unspecified range, from an original target of NZD 0.50-0.55. Our DPS forecast had overoptimistically remained at the high end of expectations.

Our new fiscal 2019 RC EBITDA and dividend forecasts are set at guidance midrange levels of NZD 435 million and NZD 0.425; changes of plus 14% and minus 5%, respectively. We had been expecting a higher dividend payout ratio of 110% versus 83% now. Our fiscal 2019 EPS forecasts increases 25% to NZD 0.51. Fiscal 2020 is little changed at NZD 0.60. Our fair value estimate increases by 3.8% to NZD 8.30 per share, largely equivalent to time value of money.

Morningstar 23/1/19

[winner69]

From BP's post - Our fair value estimate increases by 3.8% to NZD 8.30 per share,

Love the talk of $8.30 ...even though its been up close to that before

[peat]

From BP's post - Our fair value estimate increases by 3.8% to NZD 8.30 per share,

Love the talk of $8.30 ...even though its been up close to that before

BlackCross not BlackPeter!

another up day today.... yesterday was the first red candle on my chart for a long time - inevitable that there was one sooner or later

10278

we may need the overbought factor visible in the indicators to ease off before next targets of 161% extension and further are achievable.

[Beagle]

guess the div will attract plenty of punters so maybe it will go higher in the immediate future to reflect this even if it still a long term decline so still keep a few

Have a look at the 2 links in my latest post in the Turners thread. Some very big vehicle manufactures are saying some very interesting things about the future cost of electric vehicles.

[bull....]

Have a look at the 2 links in my latest post in the Turners thread. Some very big vehicle manufactures are saying some very interesting things about the future cost of electric vehicles.

i dont disagree that ev vehicles are not currently worth buying for anyone. full stop just like solar , water tanks etc just doesnt stack up.

my concern would be if the govt provides subsidies for purchase of electric vehicles in nz. wont be subsidies for retail punters but for businesses to upgrade there fleets that would impact z. otherwise it just be a slow decline over many years under current rules and pricing.

[Yoda]

BlackCross not BlackPeter!

another up day today.... yesterday was the first red candle on my chart for a long time - inevitable that there was one sooner or later

10278

we may need the overbought factor visible in the indicators to ease off before next targets of 161% extension and further are achievable.
Nice looking chart Peat. Where is is from?

[peat]

Nice looking chart Peat. Where is is from?

CMC Markets web platform.

let me know if you're going to sign up befor 31st Jan and I can refer you!
apparently we both get $375 to play with.

10279

[Yoda]

CMC Markets web platform.

let me know if you're going to sign up befor 31st Jan and I can refer you!
apparently we both get $375 to play with.

10279
A bit above me at the mo Peat. I would need to understand a bit more before going there. You,re obviously a pro...
;)

[bull....]

the 6 dollars i mentioned is proving stiff resistance at the moment , should be good up lift i reckon if it breaks

[bull....]

6 dollar sellers finished hopefully , take out the 6.15 should go higher 6- 7% div be too attractive

[bull....]

taking out the 6.15 after range trading between 6 - 6.15 so 6.30? range extension

[Beagle]

Very encouraging TA image 10371

[bull....]

yes $7 after results i hope

[iceman]

yes $7 after results i hope

That would be great. Been accumulating these since November and now my biggest NZX holding. Very much hoping for a good result and positive operational and dividend outlook

[bull....]

That would be great. Been accumulating these since November and now my biggest NZX holding. Very much hoping for a good result and positive operational and dividend outlook

yea im thinking at least 30c div to fit in there indicative range

[Beagle]

For what its worth I have switched my fuel supplier to Caltex (a subsidiary of Z). Might as well support your own company eh :)

[bull....]

taking out the 6.15 after range trading between 6 - 6.15 so 6.30? range extension

hhas been consolidating at the target price around 6.30 for a while now , looks poised to move based on my time and chart study

[bull....]

lift off ?

[BlackPeter]

lift off ?

Tide is currently clearly coming in - not just for this stock ;);

[bull....]

Tide is currently clearly coming in - not just for this stock ;);

probably the fat div that goes with there results next mth will be appealing to early birds

[Grimy]

I topped up with a few yesterday. Now back above my average buy price.
Everything certainly seems to be on the charge at present.
Looking forward to finding new homes for the upcoming MVN and ASBPB repayments.

[Beagle]

Expecting ~ 30 cps fully imputed dividend and as I see it the company has the ability to pay on average about 50 cps per annum fully imputed = 69.44 cps gross going forward on a sustainable basis so the yield is still well north of 10% for this consumer staple (a consumer staple in my book is anything most consumers must buy on a very regular recurring basis). Frankly I couldn't care one iota if it doesn't fit anyone's else definition of a consumer staple or any classic index definition of same. It is what it is, a consumer basic the vast majority of people must buy on a regular recurring basis regardless of the state of the economic cycle.

[percy]

I use NPD or Challenge,as they give me 15 cents off a litre with my Gold card.

[minimoke]

Well, today I've become a member of the ZEL family at $6.38 on open. I have been looking for a "consumable" for the portfolio and remain unconvinced (despite the charts) on the risks associated with bricks and mortar retailers like KMD, BGP and the like. You cant get much more simple than petrol (and high margin add ons) which consumers always need. Both a luxury and a necessity. This is going into the retirement portfolio so barring a stoploss being triggered I'll be interested to see how this pans out. (Usual apology to current holders - SP inevitable falls when I buy)

[Beagle]

Welcome aboard mm. Settle back and enjoy your ~ 30 cents per share fully imputed dividend forthcoming in the near future.
Hope you invested enough so dividends pay for all the fuel in your vehicle(s)...that's what I did and kind of sweet getting free petrol.

[minimoke]

Welcome aboard mm. Settle back and enjoy your ~ 30 cents per share fully imputed dividend forthcoming in the near future.
Hope you invested enough so dividends pay for all the fuel in your vehicle(s)...that's what I did and kind of sweet getting free petrol.Ordinarily I try to put my gains back into the investment pot. Though sometimes I like to take the profits off the table and by something nice. Petrol, I'm afraid doesn't do it for me - so I think those returns will stay ready to be put somewhere else in the share market (bought enough to get free driving for quite a while if i want to look at it that way!)

[bull....]

Welcome aboard mm. Settle back and enjoy your ~ 30 cents per share fully imputed dividend forthcoming in the near future.
Hope you invested enough so dividends pay for all the fuel in your vehicle(s)...that's what I did and kind of sweet getting free petrol.

30c would be nice , as z have stated in there op report div guidance has increased based on higher 3rd quarter earnings. total div guidance is between 38c - 47c which includes the 12.5c already paid.

25.5c - 34.5cps is the range at the higher end would get the market excited i reckon and propel shares up to my target $7 which is the resistance

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ZEL/329705/293954.pdf

[minimoke]

Air NZ and Z working together to give air points members 6 cents a litre off fuel.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/112067846/air-new-zealand-and-z-extend-benefits-for-airpoints-members-at-the-pump

[Beagle]

Air NZ and Z working together to give air points members 6 cents a litre off fuel.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/112067846/air-new-zealand-and-z-extend-benefits-for-airpoints-members-at-the-pump

Good news for AIR and Z I would have thought. I know there are a lot of other fuel loyalty / discount cards out there but from memory there are something like 2 million airpoints members and its N.Z's leading loyalty program so even if only a small percentage of these airpoints customers switch fuel brand allegiance the benefit to ZEL is clear.

Be nice to see these two companies I own settle their differences over the fuel pipeline disruption too.

[BlackPeter]

Air NZ and Z working together to give air points members 6 cents a litre off fuel.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/112067846/air-new-zealand-and-z-extend-benefits-for-airpoints-members-at-the-pump

Yawn - just another useless discount program. Can't use up all these supermarket vouchers (between 6 and 20 cents off), stopped using my AA card (6 cents discount at BP), don't use my wife's "Challenge customer card (6 cents there) but go normally to the more reasonably priced petrol stations like e.g. MGL or NPD in Christchurch where the fuel is always at reasonable prices (no need for cards or vouchers) - typically 20 cents below the undiscounted "standard" price set by Z et all.

I don't expect another "Me-too" discount system in a market over loaded with discount systems (which in reality are just to capture personal data) to provide advantages to their customers or to improve their business.

[winner69]

Yawn - just another useless discount program. Can't use up all these supermarket vouchers (between 6 and 20 cents off), stopped using my AA card (6 cents discount at BP), don't use my wife's "Challenge customer card (6 cents there) but go normally to the more reasonably priced petrol stations like e.g. MGL or NPD in Christchurch where the fuel is always at reasonable prices (no need for cards or vouchers) - typically 20 cents below the undiscounted "standard" price set by Z et all.

I don't expect another "Me-too" discount system in a market over loaded with discount systems (which in reality are just to capture personal data) to provide advantages to their customers or to improve their business.

I agree with you BP ....just a big yawn eh

[Beagle]

Yawn - just another useless discount program. Can't use up all these supermarket vouchers (between 6 and 20 cents off), stopped using my AA card (6 cents discount at BP), don't use my wife's "Challenge customer card (6 cents there) but go normally to the more reasonably priced petrol stations like e.g. MGL or NPD in Christchurch where the fuel is always at reasonable prices (no need for cards or vouchers) - typically 20 cents below the undiscounted "standard" price set by Z et all.

I don't expect another "Me-too" discount system in a market over loaded with discount systems (which in reality are just to capture personal data) to provide advantages to their customers or to improve their business.

There is nothing like that sort of difference in N.Z's biggest fuel market, Auckland. Gull is typically just a few cents cheaper.
A small percentage will change and lots of little things can make a difference.

[minimoke]

The 6 cents isnt the point. What it is doing is discouraging airpoint members from using an alternative fuel supplier and encouraging them into the Z door to buy higher margin stuff..
I can currently (according to gaspy) get petrol at NPD for $2.18 or $2.21 at BP or Z

[percy]

I use my Gold Card [thanks Winnie] at NPD and Challenge and get 15 cents off a litre.
I sometimes take advantage of Sticky Club [Pak'nSave] promotions ,where I get 40 cents off a litre, if I spend $200 at Pak'nSave.

[BlackPeter]

The 6 cents isnt the point. What it is doing is discouraging airpoint members from using an alternative fuel supplier and encouraging them into the Z door to buy higher margin stuff..
I can currently (according to gaspy) get petrol at NPD for $2.18 or $2.21 at BP or Z

Don't know or use gaspy, but from my experience in the real world I have never seen a less than 16 cents difference between NPD Hornby and e.g. the BP station down the road. Normally it is more, but it well might be that other NPD stations have different (higher) prices. Anyway - MGL Hornby (though not advertised and no road signage) is typically still a handful of cents cheaper than NPD Hornby.

I understand that the main purpose of these discount systems is - next to collecting data - to get customers to buy other high margin stuff.

Can't speak for these customers, never bought food or similar while fuelling up a petrol station ;) but given that every Tom, Dick and Harry is offering these days the same discounts can't I really see why customers want to jump on just another 6 cent system.

[mfd]

There is nothing like that sort of difference in N.Z's biggest fuel market, Auckland. Gull is typically just a few cents cheaper.
A small percentage will change and lots of little things can make a difference.

Christchurch (and other parts of the mainland) eagerly awaits Gull who are coming this year. Maybe our fuel will become as competitive as Auckland's. It's hard to imagine this being beneficial to Z. In the meantime, we do the same as BlackPeter and go to the self serve NPDs which are consistently cheaper without needing to faff about with extra cards.

[Beagle]

Don't know or use gaspy, but from my experience in the real world I have never seen a less than 16 cents difference between NPD Hornby and e.g. the BP station down the road. Normally it is more, but it well might be that other NPD stations have different (higher) prices. Anyway - MGL Hornby (though not advertised and no road signage) is typically still a handful of cents cheaper than NPD Hornby.

I understand that the main purpose of these discount systems is - next to collecting data - to get customers to buy other high margin stuff.

Can't speak for these customers, never bought food or similar while fuelling up a petrol station ;) but given that every Tom, Dick and Harry is offering these days the same discounts can't I really see why customers want to jump on just another 6 cent system.

I can't speak for the quality of fuel that some of the unmanned shops provide but Gull's 98 is not the same quality as BP or Mobil's 98 Octane. It contains about 10% enthonol.

I think the point some of you guys might be missing is that (and I am not pretending for one minute Z's offer with airpoints is any more compelling than anyone else's) airpoints is N.Z's biggest loyalty scheme buy a country mile with IIRC, over 2 million members. People love free travel. Brand power. Location. Facilities. Service. (forecourt concierge) Think about it...most people fuel up at one of the closest fuel stations to their home and ZEL have a really good established network in good handy locations with good facilities. When travelling out of town most people want to clean their windscreen properly, have a coffee and maybe a snack, use the bathroom and maybe get icecreams for the kids and themselves.

Not everyone is a tight ass and wants to use an unmanned station with zero facilities and is prepared to drive many kilometers out of their regular path to find one spending their time and money to save a few pathetic cents a liter.

[minimoke]

The 6 cents doesnt excite me. I'm a person with zero loyalty cards (except airpoints) and care zero about the cost of fuel. I tend to run my tank dry and fill up at the closest station - I cant be bothered faffing around wasting time driving to some 6 cents off place.

The news I posted doesn't excite me either. But I am pleased to see them negotiating something that will benefit some people and in some respects evens the playing field when it comes to loyalty / discount schemes. Much better them doing this little thing than sitting back and doing nothing - and they have more goodies in store coming up.

[percy]

MM You have a lot of pleasure to look forward to when you reach 65.
Winnie's GOLD CARD,means you may seldom have to fill up your car,may not need one, as busues are free between 9 am and 3 pm and after 6pm.
However, should you need to fill up, 15 cents off at Challenge and NPD.
I never leave home without it.

[minimoke]

looks like I may need to buy at Z to make up for the 6 cent loss in SP today.

[stoploss]

I

Not everyone is a tight ass and wants to use an unmanned station with zero facilities and is prepared to drive many kilometers out of their regular path to find one spending their time and money to save a few pathetic cents a liter.
Beagle describing someone saving 20 cents a litre as a tight ass is a bit derogatory .
That great NZ company Z sees fit to charge 20 cents a l more in Wellington than Levin ( that massive high volume City North of Wellington ) just because we have no Gull here . Note bulk fuel comes in by ship to Wellington , so more litres and cheaper delivery ...,
Economies of scale ????
On Sunday I went to the Wairarapa local Wellington station 228.9 a litre,
Mobil Featherston 208.9 on top of this with a supercard account I get 16 cents a litre off the pump price .
I’ll let you do the maths but I don’t see that as being a tight ass. Just rewarding a decent loyalty scheme and shopping wisely .
Leaves more money to purchase more shares ...

[Beagle]

Everyone is going to have different points of view about this based on where they live and their local area pricing.
One example of this is that although Percy might find he gets a genuine 15 cents per litre off by filling up at Challenge, (which he keeps reminding us about regularly), our neighbourhood challenge is a very old small and dirty service station that typically has a window card price 8-9 cpl higher than surrounding stations so the 15 cpl discount is useless in its application here.

My point is that over two million airpoints members got an email today advising them of this new scheme and over 2 million kiwi's love building their airpoints. Airpoints to many members are not the same as money and if you can't understand the value of this promotion then that's fine and I won't try and elaborate further. You either understand brand power or you don't. I think this is a positive development for ZEL.

[stoploss]

Everyone is going to have different points of view about this based on where they live and the area in which they live.
One example of this is that although Percy might find he gets a genuine 15 cents per litre off by filling up at Challenge, (which he keeps reminding us about regularly), our neighbourhood challenge is a very old small and dirty service station that typically has a window card price 8-9 cpl higher than surrounding stations so the 15 cpl discount is useless in its application here.

My point is that over two million airpoints members got an email today advising them of this new scheme and over 2 million kiwi's love building their airpoints. Airpoints to many members are not the same as money and if you can't understand the value of this promotion then that's fine and I won't try and elaborate further. You either understand brand power or you don't. I think this is a positive development for ZEL.

Brand power yep I guess that's why you chose Holden over Mercedes.......

[Beagle]

Brand power yep I guess that's why you chose Holden over Mercedes.......


I have owned both and know a lot about both, the good the bad and the ugly. Until you've bought a brand new Mercedes-Benz and owned it for a few years you have no concept of the true meaning of the word depreciation, you think you do but you don't lol
Then there's the service costs and spare parts prices and their Germanic attitude...oh don't get me started...

[winner69]

Everyone is going to have different points of view about this based on where they live and their local area pricing.
One example of this is that although Percy might find he gets a genuine 15 cents per litre off by filling up at Challenge, (which he keeps reminding us about regularly), our neighbourhood challenge is a very old small and dirty service station that typically has a window card price 8-9 cpl higher than surrounding stations so the 15 cpl discount is useless in its application here.

My point is that over two million airpoints members got an email today advising them of this new scheme and over 2 million kiwi's love building their airpoints. Airpoints to many members are not the same as money and if you can't understand the value of this promotion then that's fine and I won't try and elaborate further. You either understand brand power or you don't. I think this is a positive development for ZEL.

Two airpoints members in this family ....no email yet

[Beagle]

Two airpoints members in this family ....no email yet

One has come through to one family member here not to the other. I think they have so many to send they didn't want to crash the server so it will probably be a staggered mail-out.

[iceman]

Two airpoints members in this family ....no email yet

6 Airpoints members and no emails !!

[minimoke]

6 Airpoints members and no emails !!
Mine arrived at 10:20 this morning

[winner69]

Everything looks honky dory on the Z front

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ZEL/333461/298540.pdf


Neighbour and his bowling mates given up on term deposits completely and said some had got into Z the other day .....hoping it’s going to do better than Turners and Oceania is their hope.

[minimoke]

$0.38 - 0.47 cents per share dividend. Thats quite the spread.

[theace]

$0.38 - 0.47 cents per share dividend. Thats quite the spread.

Are they what is likely to be paid out May/June, or the Interim dividend paid in Dec subtracted from it?

[minimoke]

Are they what is likely to be paid out May/June, or the Interim dividend paid in Dec subtracted from it?Its total dividend inclusive of the 12.5 cents

[Antipodean]

25.5c - 34.5c final dividend is very attractive.

At $6.28 this represents a 4.1% - 5.5% return just for the final alone.

[Beagle]

30 cents final fully imputed with an ex date late next month...you read it from me first :)
50-55 cps fully imputed for FY20, Gross yield approx. 11.7% for a company selling a consumer staple.

[macduffy]

30 cents final fully imputed with an ex date late next month...you read it from me first :)
50-55 cps fully imputed for FY20, Gross yield approx. 11.7% for a company selling a consumer staple.

I'll take that!

:)

[Joshuatree]

$3.50 my av entry price so my yield a bit higher:t_up: And to think someone advised us to a sell on ZEL recently!! Nope i said no way, the tail is way longer(unfortunately).

[winner69]

$3.50 my av entry price so my yield a bit higher:t_up: And to think someone advised us to a sell on ZEL recently!! Nope i said no way, the tail is way longer(unfortunately).

My average $1,09 so my yield a bit higher

[Joshuatree]

How so it listed re at $3.50 i think. Petrol envy for sure lol

[RupertBear]

Everything looks honky dory on the Z front

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ZEL/333461/298540.pdf


Neighbour and his bowling mates given up on term deposits completely and said some had got into Z the other day .....hoping it’s going to do better than Turners and Oceania is their hope.

Oh dear we’re screwed :(

[Joshuatree]

Screwed totally, love listening to their music though, totally cool.

Avantdale Bowling Club - Avantdale Bowling Club [Full Album] (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yYQxjSMFmT8)

[percy]

Spend $75 at New World this week using my clubcard and get 20cents off a litre a Z.

[bull....]

anyone think the spike higher in oil will affect there profits going forward

[minimoke]

anyone think the spike higher in oil will affect there profits going forwardMarket seems to think so - down 1.3% today to $6.25

[Joshuatree]

Freaked out at 91 at the Z pump in welly $2.45 litre or thereabouts.Filled up instead in levin at about $2.04!!

[peat]

Freaked out at 91 at the Z pump in welly $2.45 litre or thereabouts.Filled up instead in levin at about $2.04!!

thats a fair way to go even for 41c/litre

[minimoke]

Freaked out at 91 at the Z pump in welly $2.45 litre or thereabouts.Filled up instead in levin at about $2.04!!Dont forget - you can get a whopping 6 cents off with your airports card at all Z stations. (Try the Gaspy app for prices near you)

[bull....]

Market seems to think so - down 1.3% today to $6.25

i was re reading there market update end last yr where they said the fall in oil helped them re coup some of the loss previous 6mths , now i was thinking they said brent over $70 was a problem. it went over $70 just recently so it affect margins now i guess. so profit warning in results or honky dory going forward?

[Joshuatree]

thats a fair way to go even for 41c/litre

I was heading back north after visiting Welly.Highlight, had a great half day around the bays and southern coast from Oriental bay to Red Rocks with walks ,cafes(2) and an aquarium in between on a sunny windy welly day.

[RupertBear]

Market seems to think so - down 1.3% today to $6.25

I fear some of Winners bowling mates have bought some :( buggar

[theflat2]

30 cents final fully imputed with an ex date late next month...you read it from me first :)
50-55 cps fully imputed for FY20, Gross yield approx. 11.7% for a company selling a consumer staple.

Nice call Beagle, very accurate!

[Beagle]

Thanks. First impressions are of a solid result for the second half and obviously the dividend was just slightly above my expectations at 30.5 cps.
Outlook for FY20 is for EBITDA growth and full year dividend forecast of 48 - 54 cps which again is pretty close to my expectations.
Looking ahead to prospective yield for a new investor buying today and looking through the immediate dividend to ascertain FY20 effective yield - At the mid point (51 cps) fully imputed gives gross 51 / 0.72 = 70.83 cps which gives a gross yield of 70.83 / 590.5 = 12% on a theoretical ex divvy price of $5.90.5 ($6.21 - .305).

12% return for a consumer item nearly 100% of people and business's have to buy seems compelling to me in this ultra low interest rate environment.

[Longhaul]

Is the 2020 dividend fully imputed?

Edit - nevermind just saw Beagles post.

[bull....]

result just as we alluded too yesterday, margin pressure

Z has delivered Historical Cost Net Profit after Tax (HC NPAT) of $186 million, a decrease of$77 million from the prior corresponding period (PCP). The 29% decline reflects crude pricemovements in FY19, steadily rising in the first half then falling steeply during the third quarterto end the year largely flat.

So based on this the current period has seen oil rise steadily again so im presuming its bad for them based on the above comments

[Beagle]

Industry standard reporting is replacement cost. As someone who clearly invests for safe yield I strongly recommend you put in some effort on understanding this one for your own benefit. Fuel is a consumer staple just like power and food, (regardless of whether or not it fits the classic definition of same for inclusion is consumer staple indices) and 12% gross yield is exceptional.

The presentation contains some commentary on the future effect of demand for petrol, (note of the total volume supplied petrol is just 29%)
Ante-up with some intellectual application mate, you might really like what you find http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ZEL/333935/299133.pdf

It is well worth noting that average broker forecast dividends for FY20 were just 47.7 cps so the company mid point dividend forecast of 51 cps fully imputed is a material beat of ~ a 7% increase on market expectation. https://www.marketscreener.com/Z-ENERGY-LTD-14473098/financials/
This could lead to a not dissimilar sized SP increase.

[minimoke]

Fuel is a consumer staple just like power and food, (regardless of whether or not it fits the classic definition of same for inclusion is consumer staple indices) and 12% gross yield is exceptional.

I agree its a consumer staple. Its essentially a non-discretionary "need". As evidenced by the 1.3% drop in industry volumes - despite the increase in taxes and pump prices. People just have to have fuel.

[sb9]

result just as we alluded too yesterday, margin pressure

Z has delivered Historical Cost Net Profit after Tax (HC NPAT) of $186 million, a decrease of$77 million from the prior corresponding period (PCP). The 29% decline reflects crude pricemovements in FY19, steadily rising in the first half then falling steeply during the third quarterto end the year largely flat.

So based on this the current period has seen oil rise steadily again so im presuming its bad for them based on the above comments


From their release FY20 Outlook is based on following:

"The FY20 forecast is based on an average barrel price
of US$70 per barrel and USD/NZD exchange rate of 0.68."

And Oil currently is tracking $72/barrel and USD/NZD cross rate of 0.6622, so on both counts they're already facing headwinds. And with RBNZ expected to cut rates, it might put further pressure on NZD against USD.

[bull....]

Industry standard reporting is replacement cost. As someone who clearly invests for safe yield I strongly recommend you put in some effort on understanding this one for your own benefit. Fuel is a consumer staple just like power and food, (regardless of whether or not it fits the classic definition of same for inclusion is consumer staple indices) and 12% gross yield is exceptional.

The presentation contains some commentary on the future effect of demand for petrol, (note of the total volume supplied petrol is just 29%)
Ante-up with some intellectual application mate, you might really like what you find http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ZEL/333935/299133.pdf

It is well worth noting that average broker forecast dividends for FY20 were just 47.7 cps so the company mid point dividend forecast of 51 cps fully imputed is a material beat of ~ a 7% increase on market expectation. https://www.marketscreener.com/Z-ENERGY-LTD-14473098/financials/
This could lead to a not dissimilar sized SP increase.

z is not a consumer staple. under gics classifications z falls under energy sector in particular oil & gas marketing therefore you are inventing things.

[bull....]

From their release FY20 Outlook is based on following:

"The FY20 forecast is based on an average barrel price
of US$70 per barrel and USD/NZD exchange rate of 0.68."

And Oil currently is tracking $72/barrel and USD/NZD cross rate of 0.6622, so on both counts they're already facing headwinds. And with RBNZ expected to cut rates, it might put further pressure on NZD against USD.

exactly , my point from above was too highlight they are currently experiencing margin pressure

[sb9]

exactly , my point from above was too highlight they are currently experiencing margin pressure

I would be careful buying in for Divvy/yield, future capital erosion might outweigh divvy amount.

[Beagle]

Which could quite easily be transitory factors too.
Worth noting that the average analyst view is that dividends for FY21 will increase to 54.9 cps fully imputed which is quite a nice increase of nearly 4 cps on the mid point of the company forecast for FY20 and puts ZEL on a prospective gross yield at the theoretical ex divvy price I posted earlier this morning of 12.92% ! WOW !...I might retire early :)

[minimoke]

I would be careful buying in for Divvy/yield, future capital erosion might outweigh divvy amount.That is always a rick (and one TRA have exposed me to). Lets see how this plays out at the end of the month when it goes ex div.

[bull....]

I would be careful buying in for Divvy/yield, future capital erosion might outweigh divvy amount.

could be your classic value trap. if buying for the div ( which is nice) you must assume the risk that over time you might lose your capital

[Beagle]

z is not a consumer staple. under gics classifications z falls under energy sector in particular oil & gas marketing therefore you are inventing things.

I couldn't care less whether its fits the specification of some index or not. People and business's have to buy it. In the last oil crisis last decade when Oil hit $U.S.147 a barrel and fuel prices skyrocketed fuel volumes declined just 2%. That's not a typo, just 2%. What that tells us is that the demand is extremely robust and highly inelastic relative to price. Business's and consumers (other than the very small percentage of those that have an electric car) must buy it whether they want to or not, just they must buy food or electricity whether they want to or not. It is a consumer staple item and only those that can't think for themselves and rely on indices will come to a different conclusion.

Yield growing to 12.9% gross for FY21 is extraordinary. Not my job to sell it to you, you can either see the opportunity or just keep those blinkers on, your choice and your loss if you can't see it.

I think the yield is more durable than the GNE yield...ouch, that remark should make you think.

[bull....]

I couldn't care less whether its fits the specification of some index or not. People and business's have to buy it. In the last oil crisis last decade when Oil hit $U.S.147 a barrel and fuel prices skyrocketed fuel volumes declined just 2%. That's not a typo, just 2%. What that tells us is that the demand is extremely robust and highly inelastic relative to price. Business's and consumers (other than the very small percentage of those that have an electric car) must buy it whether they want to or not, just they must buy food or electricity whether they want to or not. It is a consumer staple item and only those that can't think for themselves and rely on indices will come to a different conclusion.

you can call it what you like beagle but fund managers etc wont be buying it as a consumer staple they be buying it as exposure to the energy sector.

As for the div i agree with you it is nice at the moment , as EV picks up it will decline as more people leave fuel. hardly a staple like toilet paper

[RupertBear]

could be your classic value trap. if buying for the div ( which is nice) you must assume the risk that over time you might lose your capital

Yep that happened to me with SPK, nice divie but my capital loss is greater than the divie so stuck holding waiting “patiently” :eek2: for it to go back up. Dont think these divie shares are for me :(

[Beagle]

you can call it what you like beagle but fund managers etc wont be buying it as a consumer staple they be buying it as exposure to the energy sector.

As for the div i agree with you it is nice at the moment , as EV picks up it will decline as more people leave fuel. hardly a staple like toilet paper

Just stop talking and start reading the presentation. Open you mind. Market sees it like I see it but I'm dumb and so is the market...or could it be that its you who has blinkers on :p

[bull....]

Just stop talking and start reading the presentation. Open you mind. Market sees it like I see it but I'm dumb and so is the market...or could it be that its you who has blinkers on :p

im listening to the presentation lol , they forecasting a loss for flick next yr . i recoomend they merge with genesis energy would be a great fit

[Beagle]

Well signalled previously that Flick which is a very small part of their operation wouldn't contribute in FY20.
EV's uptake is slowing https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/112370005/ev-advocates-unimpressed-as-date-slips-for-cabinet-to-consider-new-incentives#comments
Z reported that although internationally battery prices are coming down we're not seeing these being passed on to shoppers on the retail floor.
The giant VW group recently released a report showing the whole of life CO2 output for EV's was not dissimilar to ICE cars.
People buying one to save the planet are kidding themselves and probably supporting child slave labour in the cobalt mines.
The more I think about it the slower I think the EV uptake will be and I am thinking it will be very late in the 2030's before this has any meaningful impact on retail petrol volumes which are only 29% of fuel volume sold by ZEL anyway.

[Leftfield]

There was an interesting discussion on RNZ this afternoon on 'Microbility.' Here's the link. (https://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/afternoons/audio/2018693269/micromobility-and-the-future-of-transport)

In effect they are saying the next 'disrupter' for the car industry (and petroleum industry) is not cars or Ecars, but rather small EV's such as Ebikes and EScooters. If this is right, then there are implications for ZEL and the likes of TNR. Have a listen and DYOR.

[bull....]

There was an interesting discussion on RNZ this afternoon on 'Microbility.' Here's the link. (https://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/afternoons/audio/2018693269/micromobility-and-the-future-of-transport)

In effect they are saying the next 'disrupter' for the car industry (and petroleum industry) is not cars or Ecars, but rather small EV's such as Ebikes and EScooters. If this is right, then there are implications for ZEL and the likes of TNR. Have a listen and DYOR.

interesting , I see westfarmers wes in aus has made a big move today into the EV market

[Beagle]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/c60a1629/update-z-energy-shares-rise-on-savings-dividend-guidance.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=UPDATE%20Z%20Energy%20shares%20rise%2 0on%20savings%20dividend%20guidance&utm_content=UPDATE%20Z%20Energy%20shares%20rise%20 on%20savings%20dividend%20guidance+CID_4d26eab2737 fd2a000cc0ec519a2128e&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticlec60a1629update-z-energy-shares-rise-on-savings-dividend-guidancehtml

[trader_jackson]

https://www.afr.com/business/energy/credit-suisse-launches-nz187-1m-z-energy-block-20190502-p51jfu

Credit Suisse's equities seeking buyers for a 7.7 per cent stake in dual-listed petrol station owner Z Energy.
The broker was offering 30.8 million shares at $NZ6.08 a share - a 4.6 % discount to the last close
Credit Suisse was selling the shares on behalf of an "institutional investor" according to terms sent to fund managers.
They say Lazard Asset Management selling out.

[Beagle]

Awesome opportunity to top up. Hope that gets reflected in the share price on the NZX tomorrow as if it does and that price is cum divvy that's a 13%+ gross yield forecast for FY21. Strike me with the dog lead if that doesn't get me moving to mop some up.

[Joshuatree]

At the presentation i went to latter last year they est $20 million this year i think, in synergy savings from the chevron acquisition. Cant find the post to verify it its on sharetrader somewhere.

Telegraphed back in Jan and confirmed ;)

[bull....]

https://www.afr.com/business/energy/credit-suisse-launches-nz187-1m-z-energy-block-20190502-p51jfu

Credit Suisse's equities seeking buyers for a 7.7 per cent stake in dual-listed petrol station owner Z Energy.
The broker was offering 30.8 million shares at $NZ6.08 a share - a 4.6 % discount to the last close
Credit Suisse was selling the shares on behalf of an "institutional investor" according to terms sent to fund managers.
They say Lazard Asset Management selling out.

hardly a ringing endorsement so soon after results

[minimoke]

hardly a ringing endorsement so soon after resultsWhat would be interesting to know is where Lazarus are placing the money. Thats a money trail I wouldn't mind following as it will obviously be going into something on this planet that offers a better opportunity, in their opinion, than Z.

A 4.6% discount for 30.8m shares or 7.7% of a company doesnt seem unreasonable to me. They will know their buy in point, will have added the dividends and know a exit price that reflects their view of value.

I'll have my eye on the open. Still got cash in the trading account. If we get a good enough market scare and consequent discount I'll be topping up.

Please continue with your negative posts.

[bull....]

What would be interesting to know is where Lazarus are placing the money. Thats a money trail I wouldn't mind following as it will obviously be going into something on this planet that offers a better opportunity, in their opinion, than Z.

A 4.6% discount for 30.8m shares or 7.7% of a company doesnt seem unreasonable to me. They will know their buy in point, will have added the dividends and know a exit price that reflects their view of value.

I'll have my eye on the open. Still got cash in the trading account. If we get a good enough market scare and consequent discount I'll be topping up.

Please continue with your negative posts.

they might be investing in gull or waitomo who are the up and comers disrupting the cosy 3 some of BP , Z AND MOBIL

[tuaman]

they might be investing in gull or waitomo who are the up and comers disrupting the cosy 3 some of BP , Z AND MOBIL
yeah. good one. or maybe sky tv?

[minimoke]

they might be investing in gull or waitomo who are the up and comers disrupting the cosy 3 some of BP , Z AND MOBILIts a great bigly uge world out there. NZ is but a pimple on an elephants bum. I'm sure there are very many more opportunities out there than those that present them selves in our little set of south pacific islands

[Beagle]

What would be interesting to know is where Lazarus are placing the money. Thats a money trail I wouldn't mind following as it will obviously be going into something on this planet that offers a better opportunity, in their opinion, than Z.

A 4.6% discount for 30.8m shares or 7.7% of a company doesnt seem unreasonable to me. They will know their buy in point, will have added the dividends and know a exit price that reflects their view of value.

I'll have my eye on the open. Still got cash in the trading account. If we get a good enough market scare and consequent discount I'll be topping up.

Please continue with your negative posts.

LOL occasionally some bull is helpful

[minimoke]

Well that wasnt hard. 30.8m shares gone just like that. Just shows the sort of cash thats slopping around out there. I wonder who the new owners are?

[Beagle]

Dog gone it !...I was hoping to stick a paw up for some.

[JoeGrogan]

getting interesting, will the strength of that dividend hold it above 6.20?

[couta1]

Dog gone it !...I was hoping to stick a paw up for some. When bull starts being negative and downramping that's my buy signal.Lol

[tuaman]

When bull starts being negative and downramping that's my buy signal.Lol
yeah. many shares worked that way fine as long as I remembered. So I topped up some. haha.

[bull....]

When bull starts being negative and downramping that's my buy signal.Lol

sometimes lol

[couta1]

sometimes lol Certainly was this time.Lol. PS-Bought quite a few but want more at $6 20 or less

[carrom74]

Certainly was this time.Lol. PS-Bought quite a few but want more at $6 20 or less

Well done Couta..

Have bought a small parcel at $6.19.. I don't think we will get that price before 29th of May eh?

[iceman]

Well done Couta..

Have bought a small parcel at $6.19.. I don't think we will get that price before 29th of May eh?

I reckon you can pick up more below that on 17 May !!

[BlackPeter]

I reckon you can pick up more below that on 17 May !!

True ... Trump makes it possible! His organisation is probably heavily shorting at the moment ;);

[carrom74]

I reckon you can pick up more below that on 17 May !!

A bit lost here... whats happening on the 17th of May??

[couta1]

A bit lost here... whats happening on the 17th of May?? It goes Ex divvy so the SP should drop around 30c from wherever it was the day before.

[iceman]

A bit lost here... whats happening on the 17th of May??

Goes ex-dividend on 16th from memory, payable 29th

[minimoke]

It goes Ex divvy so the SP should drop around 30c from wherever it was the day before.Sadly doesn't appear to have topped up 30 cents in the mean time

[carrom74]

Thanks Couta and Iceman..

I got the dates wrong...

[sb9]

Quite a few lots of 100k, 200k parcels are crossed at 6.20 and 6.21 range. If things go custard overnight on DOW, it might test the $6.09 mark where that large block was transacted.

[couta1]

Quite a few lots of 100k, 200k parcels are crossed at 6.20 and 6.21 range. If things go custard overnight on DOW, it might test the $6.09 mark where that large block was transacted. Very unlikely with that big divvy loaded in besides the NZX has already started pricing in the custard pie.

[iceman]

A nice rapid climb since going XD. 2/3 of the divie recovered in a couple of days :-)

[couta1]

A nice rapid climb since going XD. 2/3 of the divie recovered in a couple of days :-) Yep should get back into the $6.30-$6.40 range in a few weeks.PS-AVG target price is around $7.

[sb9]

A nice rapid climb since going XD. 2/3 of the divie recovered in a couple of days :-)

Yep, held up pretty well after going ex-div. After dithering around for a while took a position few days before it went ex-div.

[Beagle]

All good and proceeding as expected. 12% yield for a company selling a basic necessity the vast majority of people have to repeatedly buy, (better not use the consumer staple term again in case I upset the text-book experts who will have to remind me it doesn't go into any consumer staple index), is highly attractive in this ultra low interest rate environment so I am not surprised to see this making good early progress to recovering its dividend quickly. Market screener suggests average broker target price is ~ $7 so this remains a compelling hold for yield and possible further upside.

[minimoke]

It certainly one divy I'm looking forward to hitting my bank account!

[Beagle]

It certainly one divy I'm looking forward to hitting my bank account!

I wonder why :D If I'm going to keep engaging in my own unique form of dividend reinvestment plan I might be needing a supercharged V8 soon or better still buy a boat :)

[percy]

No surprises there.
Full Moon "Blue Moon" 19th May,so today's wyward thoughts can be explained.!

[Beagle]

No surprises there.
Full Moon "Blue Moon" 19th May,so today's wyward thoughts can be explained.!

LOL might have had something to do with going to the boat show yesterday too :)

[percy]

You going to a boat show when there is a full moon is not a good idea.
Could lead to you being lead into temptation.
Always remember the actual cost of each fish caught.!!......................................... ...lol.

[Beagle]

You going to a boat show when there is a full moon is not a good idea.
Could lead to you being lead into temptation.
Always remember the actual cost of each fish caught.!!......................................... ...lol.

You're right Percy, it has lead to delusions that an somewhat aging Beagle could go on exciting adventures again....really "disappointed" lol I wasn't on board to do the rough water testing of the newly released Stabicraft 2250. See wave hit at the 18 second mark and effect...not sure that would have done the ol ticker much good lol https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c8qBvw3ofyE

[percy]

Gee Whiz that full moon is affecting me too,
Those boats look great.!!

[Brain]

You're right Percy, it has lead to delusions that an somewhat aging Beagle could go on exciting adventures again....really "disappointed" lol I wasn't on board to do the rough water testing of the newly released Stabicraft 2250. See wave hit at the 18 second mark and effect...not sure that would have done the ol ticker much good lol https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c8qBvw3ofyE

Maybe you should consider this boat instead

http://www.nauti-craft.com/

[peat]

http://www.nauti-craft.com/

I can see how that would work, but I really cant see it as necessary in recreational boating.

I did pick up some ZEL - finally! - I ve been hot on ZEL for ages but never managed to get on board).

I got them just before going XD with the intention of doubling up after going ex. but never got a decent chance..

[winner69]

Discussion on radio this morning about the huge differences in regional fuel prices - like Wellingtonians essentially paying the extra fuel tax for Aucklanders

Z and the others have always been one ‘corrupt’ (maybe) group of companies

Buts its a free market and if they want to rip off certain groups there’s nothing to stop them. As they as they ‘maximising’ shareholder returns the loyal shareholders should be proud of how they behave and have no qualms as to their behaviour

Money counts

[Beagle]

Full service costs a little bit extra ?
Forecourt concierge is valued by some people. Z is the only place I know of where you can reliably expect to get a bucket type container full of a really decent amount of windscreen cleaner and good quality brushes so when you clean your windscreen it lathers up nicely and does a really good job, (as opposed to the rubbish beaten to death like nobody cares windscreen brushes at Mobil and others with little or often no windscreen cleaner mixed into the water.

I would prefer not to put scratches into my windscreen glass with shonky equipment and just plain water...end of rant on that frustrating point.

Z stations including sub brand Caltex have a dominant footprint in very good locations around the country.

On a mid point of their forecast dividend (this company which sells what many people consider to be an absolute consumer staple) 51 cps fully imputed = 51/0.72 = 70.83 cps / $6.11 offers an 11.6% gross yield at $6.11. I think that's compelling in an ultra low interest rate environment and I don't think electric cars are going to make any meaningful impact until the mid - late 2030's.

[minimoke]

Filled my car up at Z the other day. Before I came to a stop a lady was there. I hopped out of the car and she was offering to fill my tank. Thanks I said and then went on to clean the windows with a bucket of nice clean water/cleaner - and this was after 5.00pm. Its called service and I'm prepared to pay a bit more for it.

The alternative is the NPD down the road. no water, no service. no nothing. Its cheaper as it should be.

My money, my choice.

[QOH]

I always go to ZED because I know they will come out and fill my car for me.
Dont care how much extra it costs me, as an older woman, I dont want to learn how to put petrol in my car, and I know I’m not alone in that regard.

[Beagle]

Filled my car up at Z the other day. Before I came to a stop a lady was there. I hopped out of the car and she was offering to fill my tank. Thanks I said and then went on to clean the windows with a bucket of nice clean water/cleaner - and this was after 5.00pm. Its called service and I'm prepared to pay a bit more for it.

The alternative is the NPD down the road. no water, no service. no nothing. Its cheaper as it should be.

My money, my choice.

The local unmanned Gull has absolutely nothing, not even a bathroom or an air pump to top up one's tyres.
What is the point of having an unmanned station out in the back of beyond without even a bathroom as when travelling on a road trip half the point of stopping for fuel is to also get a coffee, a snack and / or ice-cream or pie, visit the bathroom and probably clean the bugs off your windscreen too and none of these things are possible at these cheaper unmanned stations which goes to prove the age old saying, you really do get what you pay for.

[couta1]

Waitomo has been welcomed to our community with wide open arms and has been enormously busy since opening, 2 Caltex plus 1 BP station have had to reduce their prices to stay competitive the Z station a few more kms down the road never dropped a cent off its price.

[Beagle]

Waitomo has been welcomed to our community with wide open arms and has been enormously busy since opening, 2 Caltex plus 1 BP station have had to reduce their prices to stay competitive the Z station a more kms down the road never dropped a cent off its price.

It always starts that way as it did with the local unmanned Gull very close to where I live. Gull with absolutely no service whatsoever as posted above, (a year after opening) have now moved to ostensibly exactly the same price as surrounding full service stations once you factor in the discount scheme's offered by the latter.

[couta1]

It always starts that way as it did with the local unmanned Gull very close to where I live. Gull with absolutely no service whatsoever as posted above, (a year after opening) have now moved to ostensibly exactly the same price as surrounding full service stations once you factor in the discount scheme's offered by the latter. Difference is that Waitomo is a 70 yr old kiwi family business unlike Gull. PS-The Gull in Levin has remained at cheap prices for many years now.

[Beagle]

Difference is that Waitomo is a 70 yr old kiwi family business unlike Gull. PS-The Gull in Levin has remained at cheap prices for many years now.

I'd like you to do some market research since as we discussed, this new station is very close to where you live.
At this new station can you :-
1. Pay for your fuel with cash ?
2. Clean your windscreen with the equipment provided ?
3. Buy an ice-cream, snack, pie or milk and bread ?
4. Go to the bathroom ?
5. Wash your hands with warm soapy water after touching the dirty fuel bowser that's contaminated with 101 other people's germs ?
6. Get someone else to fill your car - forecourt concierge ?
7. Check and top up your tyres ?
8. Buy oil or any other motoring product ?
9. Participate in any discount, flybuys, airpoints or any other loyalty scheme
10 Get a hot coffee ?

Looking forward to your market research response. None of these things can be done at my local Gull station and yet their fuel is now just the same as anywhere else. Who's Gull-ible enough to go there now ?

[couta1]

I'd like you to do some market research since as we discussed, this new station is very close to where you live.
At this new station can you :-
1. Pay for your fuel with cash ?
2. Clean your windscreen with the equipment provided ?
3. Buy an ice-cream, snack, pie or milk and bread ?
4. Go to the bathroom ?
5. Wash your hands with warm soapy water after touching the dirty fuel bowser that's contaminated with 101 other people's germs ?
6. Get someone else to fill your car - forecourt concierge ?
7. Check and top up your tyres ?
8. Buy oil or any other motoring product ?
9. Participate in any discount, flybuys, airpoints or any other loyalty scheme
10 Get a hot coffee ?

Looking forward to your market research response. None of these things can be done at my local Gull station and yet their fuel is now just the same as anywhere else. Who's Gull-ible enough to go there now ? Wow Beagle you do an awful lot at your chosen service station I on the other hand only get petrol. PS-Never check your tire pressure or oil at a service station if you intend adjusting either do it at home with everything cold. PPS- I still have to frequate the local BP and pay criminal prices for their 98 to go in my big block V8 for its monthly drive. PPPS- I do however acknowledge that some folks appreciate the above features you have mentioned.

[mfd]

Some of those I consider a benefit of the cheap stations - cheaper fuel and no exposure to temptation/advertising for other overpriced goods, double benefit. Haven't paid for anything with cash for months, everything else I can do elsewhere or at home with a little organisation.

[Beagle]

Wow Beagle you do an awful lot at your chosen service station I on the other hand only get petrol. PS-Never check your tire pressure or oil at a service station if you intend adjusting either do it at home with everything cold. PPS- I still have to frequate the local BP and pay criminal prices for their 98 to go in my big block V8 for its monthly drive. PPPS- I do however acknowledge that some folks appreciate the above features you have mentioned.

Don't do all that lol but its handy if you want too. Local Mobil even has a subway incorporated within the shop which has proven to be handy at times.

[peat]

I can see how that would work, but I really cant see it as necessary in recreational boating.

I did pick up some ZEL - finally! - I ve been hot on ZEL for ages but never managed to get on board).

I got them just before going XD with the intention of doubling up after going ex. but never got a decent chance..


Looks like I might get that chance!

I've started using Z Levin now that I'm heading to Welly so often and the amenities there are useful.
But yeh whereever I go , doesnt matter. this company is about trucks and aeroplanes as consumers,

[sb9]

Well, get ready for some spoils as divvy just hit bank a/c.

[minimoke]

Well, get ready for some spoils as divvy just hit bank a/c.Nice but not making up for my capital loss at $6.02

[sb9]

Nice but not making up for my capital loss at $6.02

True, I'm about half way in between. Looks like one (lazard) or two big boys still keen to offload their holdings. Once they are done, might see the sp track higher.

[iceman]

Divie in the bank but still not showing up in Sharesight. Anyone else having the same issue ? Looks like it will needs to be entered manually.

[minimoke]

Divie in the bank but still not showing up in Sharesight. Anyone else having the same issue ? Looks like it will needs to be entered manually.Divy is in bank and showing in my Direct Broking portfolio

[bull....]

brent oil fallen $7 last week , likely to fall further so will be beneficial for z going forward

[Yoda]

My sharesight added....

[iceman]

My sharesight added....

I contacted Sharesight and they fixed it

[sanctus671]

No more AA Smartfuel loyalty program. Not Z's decision either (AA ended the contract). I feel like that will affect sales at Caltex. What's everyone's thoughts on this?

[Beagle]

I think it could have a very small effect. That said N.Z. 's biggest loyalty program Airpoints has just been rolled out at Z and will replace the AA smartfuel program at Caltex so its probably swings and roundabouts and it'll come out close to even.

[iceman]

I think it could have a very small effect. That said N.Z. 's biggest loyalty program Airpoints has just been rolled out at Z and will replace the AA smartfuel program at Caltex so its probably swings and roundabouts and it'll come out close to even.

Obvious there is heating competition between the loyalty programs. Z has been offering the odd day with 3x or 4x Airpoints which I've been taking advantage of. Almost a shame my hybrid doesn't use more petrol to get bigger advantage of the Airpoints offers :-)
Oh well, them is the breaks :-)

[rayonline]

Obvious there is heating competition between the loyalty programs. Z has been offering the odd day with 3x or 4x Airpoints which I've been taking advantage of. Almost a shame my hybrid doesn't use more petrol to get bigger advantage of the Airpoints offers :-)
Oh well, them is the breaks :-)

For a customer the AA Smartfuel programme is still better. I have ran the numbers. AA Smartfuel's 10c promo effectively becomes 20c under the Z Energy loyalty.

AirNZ Points
2 months under the AA programme, say 20L each time 2x a week that is 16x visits. Obtains $3.20 Airpoints. 3x promo is $10. (Standard is $1APD per 100L of fuel).
Assume every time 10c off, that means 16x visits each 20L = $32.

OTOH the AA programme gets $80.

This is understated since I kept the maths simple ie assuming petrol still is $2.00. Ie $40 fill BP vs AirNZ programme's 20L required.

[iceman]

For a customer the AA Smartfuel programme is still better. I have ran the numbers. AA Smartfuel's 10c promo effectively becomes 20c under the Z Energy loyalty.

AirNZ Points
2 months under the AA programme, say 20L each time 2x a week that is 16x visits. Obtains $3.20 Airpoints. 3x promo is $10. (Standard is $1APD per 100L of fuel).
Assume every time 10c off, that means 16x visits each 20L = $32.

OTOH the AA programme gets $80.

This is understated since I kept the maths simple ie assuming petrol still is $2.00. Ie $40 fill BP vs AirNZ programme's 20L required.

But some also need more Airpoints to retain "status" with AIR so the Airpoints are quite valuable. You have not taken that into account and fair enough as it is only really of value for frequent travellers.

[Beagle]

For a customer the AA Smartfuel programme is still better. I have ran the numbers. AA Smartfuel's 10c promo effectively becomes 20c under the Z Energy loyalty.

AirNZ Points
2 months under the AA programme, say 20L each time 2x a week that is 16x visits. Obtains $3.20 Airpoints. 3x promo is $10. (Standard is $1APD per 100L of fuel).
Assume every time 10c off, that means 16x visits each 20L = $32.

OTOH the AA programme gets $80.

This is understated since I kept the maths simple ie assuming petrol still is $2.00. Ie $40 fill BP vs AirNZ programme's 20L required.

Sorry I don't follow. Typically the AA rewards gives 6 cpl off. 16 visits for anyone who can be bothered working the system to the extreme, (gosh that's a lot of visits in 2 months) gives 16 x 6 cps = 96 cpl discount at final visit, (assuming you accumulate rewards every visit) but this is limited to 50 L of fuel = $48. I could be wrong but I'm not sure very many people would bother visiting twice a week every week just to earn another $16 in rewards, (assuming you've done your maths right with the airpoints system)

[Airw0lf]

But some also need more Airpoints to retain "status" with AIR so the Airpoints are quite valuable. You have not taken that into account and fair enough as it is only really of value for frequent travellers.

Status with Air NZ is determined by status points earned, not Airpoints dollars earned. The only way to gain status points is to actually fly Air NZ (or an applicable partner airline) or use a credit card that provides you with status points as rewards alongside Airpoints dollars. Filling up on petrol just gets you Airpoints dollars and no status points.

[iceman]

Status with Air NZ is determined by status points earned, not Airpoints dollars earned. The only way to gain status points is to actually fly Air NZ (or an applicable partner airline) or use a credit card that provides you with status points as rewards alongside Airpoints dollars. Filling up on petrol just gets you Airpoints dollars and no status points.

You are right. My Z spend gives me status points from the credit card. My bad.

[rayonline]

Sorry I don't follow. Typically the AA rewards gives 6 cpl off. 16 visits for anyone who can be bothered working the system to the extreme, (gosh that's a lot of visits in 2 months) gives 16 x 6 cps = 96 cpl discount at final visit, (assuming you accumulate rewards every visit) but this is limited to 50 L of fuel = $48. I could be wrong but I'm not sure very many people would bother visiting twice a week every week just to earn another $16 in rewards, (assuming you've done your maths right with the airpoints system)

Many families including us have 2 cars.

Generally every week BP/Caltex has a 10c discount promotion. Each of our cars don't visit every week. What we do is when the tank is mostly empty we put in 2x $40 separately then when the tank is 1/3 empty we can top up $40. At the forecourt, you can put in $40 2 times separately one after the next, then you go to the counter and pay for each separately (one after the next). You don't have to pump $40 and go in and pay it, and come back out and pump and pay the 2nd time. Or simply use the BP app.

So 2 cars. 8 week for the 2 months. 16 visits. 10c off per each time. $1.60 accumulated up. Applied to 50L. $80 ($1.60x50).


Edit. Airpoints progamme is $1APD per 100L.
Assuming it's $2/L it's not but assume. BP's 16x visit of $40 = 20L each time times 16 = 320L. This is $3.20 APD. Let's also assume it's ALWAYS 3x Flybuys/APD promo = ~$10.
Z Energy also provides discount at pump 6c usually but let's assume it's 10c. 320L x 0.10 = $32.
$32+$10 = $42..
Realistically with Z Energy they don't have 10c discount that often and don't have 3x Flybuys/APD always. Also with petrol now more at the $2.30L, maybe realistically Z Energy gets you $20-25 discounts for the 2 months?

[Beagle]

Okay...thanks for clarifying your methodology to get to $80 rewards per 2 months.
My wife simply doesn't care where she fills up, when the fuel light comes on she pulls into the next petrol station that appears on her route without even a second thought for the pump price or any rewards scheme. I would think there's quite a few motorists that do exactly the same thing. Saves a lot of time and effort.

[minimoke]

..........

[Leftfield]

Well, I'm hopeless. I run my tank till empty and then just fill up at the closest petrol station. Too much work involved in trying to save a buck.

LOL....same here.....instead of trying to save a few $'s on petrol it is much more satisfying to be making heaps of $'s investing good shares.

[rayonline]

Well, I'm hopeless. I run my tank till empty and then just fill up at the closest petrol station. Too much work involved in trying to save a buck.

But ... leaving till the petrol light comes up isn't good for the fuel pump which can be expensive to fix. I get your point though ...

[Beagle]

I can't help wondering how many people actually drive a wee way out of their way to participate in their favourite incentive scheme.
If you then put a price on the cost to motor out of their way on a regular basis including the fuel costs itself and the wear and tear and then out a value on the extra time involved even at say $20 hour to max out said incentive scheme...well I wonder how many people are effectively like a cat chasing their own tail lol

On the other hand there's probably a number of people like Rayonline who have a local BP or Caltex that's really handy and that might have s somewhat competitive pump price because its close to a Gull or Waitomo so the rewards a real if you work the scheme hard enough. I suspect most people are somewhere in the middle and may have a couple of rewards scheme's (like I do) and just choose the most convenient fuel station that participates in one of those schemes that has a competitive pump price on the day... but won't drive out of their way to waste time or fuel to try and max any particular scheme right out to the nth degree.

[minimoke]

..........

[rayonline]

I can't help wondering how many people actually drive a wee way out of their way to participate in their favourite incentive scheme.
If you then put a price on the cost to motor out of their way on a regular basis including the fuel costs itself and the wear and tear and then out a value on the extra time involved even at say $20 hour to max out said incentive scheme...well I wonder how many people are effectively like a cat chasing their own tail lol

On the other hand there's probably a number of people like Rayonline who have a local BP or Caltex that's really handy and that might have s somewhat competitive pump price because its close to a Gull or Waitomo so the rewards a real if you work the scheme hard enough. I suspect most people are somewhere in the middle and may have a couple of rewards scheme's (like I do) and just choose the most convenient fuel station that participates in one of those schemes that has a competitive pump price on the day... but won't drive out of their way to waste time or fuel to try and max any particular scheme right out to the nth degree.

Staying in a major city yeah ... we get a selection of petrol companies conveniently. There are less and less Caltex now however. The main car is use daily so we just do a quick stop at the petrol station at a time that it is convenient. The other car that is not used frequently we can shift things around a bit, ie I might go to the post office tomorrow instead because there is a promotion running. Our petrol prices are identical in our area.

We don't have a Gull, Upper Hutt in Wellington has a Waitomo too far for us but they are cheaper for a laid back approach, go in anytime. AFAIK Waitomo is 10c cheaper than their nearby BP/ZEL/Caltex but a AA Card's 10c works out to be more like 20c when accumulated up and redeemed.

No extra work for myself. I just manage this inventory (same with food) so I don't waste it, I spend within my means and also have a bit left over for investing. A bit analytical also to max out the scheme can be a bit of fun.

[Beagle]

Fair enough mate. I have the AA rewards thing and Mobil smiles. I work both a bit but the Mobil station is closer and more convenient and has a Subway within it and one of those fancy new brushless car wash systems too.

[Jay]

Caltex pulling out of the AA Smartfuel programme at end of July - https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/business-top-stories/113300364/aa-smartfuel-will-not-be-available-to-caltex-customers-from-august-1

[macduffy]

More a case of AA dropping Caltex, I think.

After all, Caltex is owned by Z, BP's competition.

[Jay]

Yes , quite right macduffy, so who will be the other fuel partners - Mobil and/or Gull - says will have 300 sites across the country (includes BP I presume)

[dreamcatcher]

Not a good look for electric cars...........

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AmbHpqWjMVE

[BlackPeter]

Not a good look for electric cars...........

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AmbHpqWjMVE

Obviously, could have been anything starting this if its not fake ... but yes, battery technology is not yet quite safe (that's where I should put in my pitch for ATC and HPA (https://www.marketscreener.com/ALTECH-CHEMICALS-LTD-18509123/news/Altech-Chemicals-Ltd-ASX-ATC-HPA-Market-Update-Lithium-ion-Battery-Sector-27353633/) :)). But no matter how you store energy anyway (be it chemical (e.g. petrol), electrical (e.g. battery), mechanical (e.g. spring) or through location), if something goes wrong than the bigger the amount of energy the louder the bang ...

Cars using conventional fuel like to spontaneously combust as well:

https://www.theclever.com/20-dangerous-cars-with-the-highest-risk-of-spontaneous-combustion/

... and it might be even a higher percentage of cars than the handful of Teslas which did the trick so far

[sb9]

Low volume price up day, may be the selling pressure eased from one of those big boys?

[bull....]

Low volume price up day, may be the selling pressure eased from one of those big boys?

tring hard to get back up , div very attractive

[sb9]

tring hard to get back up , div very attractive

Sure it does, goes up first thing in the morning and when ASX opens promptly comes back down. Most of selling is coming from AUS instos I think.

Div yield is very solid though.

[bull....]

Sure it does, goes up first thing in the morning and when ASX opens promptly comes back down. Most of selling is coming from AUS instos I think.

Div yield is very solid though.

i noticed that 2

[sb9]

i noticed that 2

Once those AUS instos sell through, we might be looking at $7 mark in medium term.

On today's price gross div yield is almost 10%.

[bull....]

Once those AUS instos sell through, we might be looking at $7 mark in medium term.

On today's price gross div yield is almost 10%.

brent oil down heaps as well of late will help there margins. 10% in this environment is like out of this world lol when rates hit zero

[sb9]

Decent volume went thro at close at day’s high of $6.18. And couple of parcels of 100k and 180k crossed after market at $6.18.

May be the AUS big boys finished up their selling...

[Crisis]

May be this: https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/113730517/air-nz-quits-after-losing-case-against-z-energy-over-marsden-pipeline-damage

[bull....]

May be this: https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/113730517/air-nz-quits-after-losing-case-against-z-energy-over-marsden-pipeline-damage

could be . z will be relieved thats over at no cost to them.

These experts think oil demand won't peak until 2035
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/06/24/business/oil-demand-wood-mackenzie/index.html

[sb9]

May be this: https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/113730517/air-nz-quits-after-losing-case-against-z-energy-over-marsden-pipeline-damage

Thanks for the link, that explains.

[sb9]

At today's price, back in black with tiny profit after stripping divvy. Nice :)

[bull....]

might get a bounce into quarter end

[sb9]

might get a bounce into quarter end

Could well be, up 10c nicely today to $6.30

[bull....]

Could well be, up 10c nicely today to $6.30


it was a nice recent div and got a small gain as well but im out now. needed funds elsewhere good luck

[bull....]

bit of downside today must be due to the EV subsidy announcement

[peat]

bit of downside today must be due to the EV subsidy announcement

yeh , only slightly rational, trucks and aeroplanes will take a while before they go EV I reckon.

[bull....]

yeh , only slightly rational, trucks and aeroplanes will take a while before they go EV I reckon.

lol plenty of time this is what bennett says

This isn't going to kill our core business overnight. This is not a Kodak moment for us - it's part of an overall decline in our core products

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12247898

[tuaman]

lol plenty of time this is what bennett says

This isn't going to kill our core business overnight. This is not a Kodak moment for us - it's part of an overall decline in our core products

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12247898


theres always demand for oil not just for fuel but chemicals/plastics.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/motoring/114096873/suvs-tend-to-attract-pavement-princesses-but-proposed-price-hikes-may-not-deter-cultlike-followers

[Joshuatree]

Pretty much steady as she gos. Just love my divs, extra juicy yield for original holder 's @$3.50 a share:closed eyes:

Z reaffirms FY20 earnings guidance for RC EBITDAF to be in a range of $450 million - $490 million (including the adoption of IFRS16 accounting standards as previously announced) and the dividend to be in a range of $0.48 and $0.54 cents per share."
Z Energy quarterly operating data (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ZEL/337729/303669.pdf)

[bull....]

Pretty much steady as she gos. Just love my divs, extra juicy yield for original holder 's @$3.50 a share:closed eyes:

Z reaffirms FY20 earnings guidance for RC EBITDAF to be in a range of $450 million - $490 million (including the adoption of IFRS16 accounting standards as previously announced) and the dividend to be in a range of $0.48 and $0.54 cents per share."
Z Energy quarterly operating data (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ZEL/337729/303669.pdf)

flat revenues shop sales etc steady as you go alright

[Joshuatree]

Yep, mkt liked it s/p up re 13 c.Folks after that steady yield.

[sb9]

Looks like another big finish for the week coming up...

[sb9]

Nice finish for the week at $6.40.

[sb9]

Absolutely smoking today, safe to assume that the Aussies instos may have all but sold their holdings.

[tim23]

Still a very tidy net yield at closing price, I'm nearly break even $6.70 will do that for me.

[sb9]

Still a very tidy net yield at closing price, I'm nearly break even $6.70 will do that for me.

Well, getting close to your break even price..up another 10c or so today. At this rate we might see sp with $7 handle by end of month.

[sb9]

Big gains this morning on the back of yield seekers and oil price dropping 5% overnight.

[Beagle]

I noticed weekly shop sales up 10% year on year in their most recent presentation.
As time goes by and EV's start to gradually gain momentum at an almost glacial pace I expect Z to install more charging points at their sites so EV owners can charge their vehicles and while they're waiting for their charge they'll be buying ice-creams, snacks and coffee from the Z shop. What the left hand taketh away, the right hand giveth :cool:
52 cps forecast fully imputed divvy at the mid point of forecast 52 / 0.72 = 72.22 cos gross. On $6.70 that's still 10.8% gross yield.

[winner69]

Interesting read. No doubt Z have all this under control.

IS THERE A FUTURE FOR SERVICE STATIONS?

https://www.bcg.com/publications/2019/service-stations-future.aspx?utm_medium=Email&utm_source=esp&utm_campaign=none&utm_description=ealert&utm_topic=none&utm_geo=global&utm_content=201908&utm_usertoken=8d2745466b8c1944de755d1a47eb7ea91be9 4203&redir=true

“Retailers in the future will be able to target each individual and target products and services to that individual’s needs”

[sb9]

Could well have 7 handle in front of sp very soon..

[tuaman]

Could well have 7 handle in front of sp very soon..
I hope it get there and stay there. :D

[bull....]

reports out into petrol competition , looks like z will take a hit going forward

[winner69]

reports out into petrol competition , looks like z will take a hit going forward

Z been screwing motorists for far too long .....hope they get their comeuppance

Not just Z but Z the worst

Shareholders should be proud of their company doing such things to make money ...as long as shareholders don’t think of themselves as ‘owners’ It shouldn’t prick their conscience

[Beagle]

The Government take just on $1.20 in total taxes inclusive of GST from over 1.5m Auckland motorists for every liter of fuel sold.
I have been buying fuel lately for a fraction under $2 per liter lately after discounts so the total cost of the product itself has been less than 80 cents.
I think its crystal clear who is the party that's really engaged in blatant highway robbery.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says Kiwis have been "fleeced" on petrol prices for a decade and her Government is "ready to act". Reported in the NZ Herald today.
This is the same who rushed through under urgency the increase in fuel excise on 1 July 2019, that was formerly not due to be implemented until some months later.

The same Prime Minister who promised no new taxes under her term but immediately dramatically increased fuel excise and then had the gall to tell us fuel excise increase is, and I quote, "not a tax". I think that sums the situation up right there.

Lets have a study into how the Governments total tax take from fuel has increased over the last decade !

[bull....]

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says Kiwis have been "fleeced" on petrol prices for a decade and her Government is "ready to act".

Asked if she could give Kiwis a guarantee that petrol prices would drop, Ardern said she would give motorists an assurance the Government would not "stand by as they continue to be fleeced".

"It's not right. It's been happening over the last decade. Unlike the last government, we're going to do something about it."

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12260020


ardern reputation on the line over this . well petrol companies profits going down big i reckon now for the big 3

[Beagle]

Government now engaged in a plan of what amounts to deliberate obfuscation. Ardern talking already like the report is final. Its only a draft report.
Ardern needs to come clean on the massive increase in Govt taxes over the last decade including new accelerated ones her Govt has introduced under urgency.

[winner69]

The Government take just on $1.20 in total taxes inclusive of GST from over 1.5m Auckland motorists for every liter of fuel sold.


....they might pay that 10 cents auckland regional tax of yours to the government .....but they collect the cash from places like Wellington and South Island (fleecing them off eh) ....bastards

[couta1]

Government now engaged in a plan of what amounts to deliberate obfuscation. Ardern talking already like the report is final. Its only a draft report.
Ardern needs to come clean on the massive increase in Govt taxes over the last decade including new accelerated ones her Govt has introduced under urgency. Couldnt agree more, this Govt are master fleecers of the highest order, what a smokescreen this report is. PS-If they were that interested in equality they would force local councils to remove GST off rates bills for a start.

[peat]

where is the actual report?

[bull....]

where is the actual report?
jacinda sitting on it

[peat]

positives there if you read the Rawlings comments though. Shes not so virulent

"Although Rawlings said competition could be better in the market, she would not go as far as saying consumers were being "fleeced". If competition was working well, consumers would be paying less over time, Rawlings said."


Heaps milder than Jacinda...


She was open to the Government building more infrastructure that could support fuel being imported into New Zealand.

The Commerce Commission's view was that petrol was still going to be around for a long time and it "does not seem like a sensible strategy" to solely focus on electric vehicles.



Nice to know thanks



I dont think this thread should be used as a political platform, we know how politicians blag and end up doing sfa. Chances are this will do diddley squat and this news offers a chance to buy cheaper shares. I sold a third just the other day by chance, and will consider re-entry.

[bull....]

positives there if you read the Rawlings comments though. Shes not so virulent
"Although Rawlings said competition could be better in the market, she would not go as far as saying consumers were being "fleeced". If competition was working well, consumers would be paying less over time, Rawlings said."


Heaps milder than Jacinda...


She was open to the Government building more infrastructure that could support fuel being imported into New Zealand.

The Commerce Commission's view was that petrol was still going to be around for a long time and it "does not seem like a sensible strategy" to solely focus on electric vehicles.



Nice to know thanks



I dont think this thread should be used as a political platform, we know how politicians blag and end up doing sfa. Chances are this will do diddley squat and this news offers a chance to buy cheaper shares. I sold a third just the other day by chance, and will consider re-entry.

she has no choice to act on this report now after her comments. this report benefits Gull and Waitomo the most to the detriment of z , mobil and bp who lose market share and profits in time as competition is opened up.

[kiora]

Z been screwing motorists for far too long .....hope they get their comeuppance

Not just Z but Z the worst

Shareholders should be proud of their company doing such things to make money ...as long as shareholders don’t think of themselves as ‘owners’ It shouldn’t prick their conscience

Hugh! Z making $0.04/liter,Taxes $1.20.Spare me.

[Beagle]

I dont think this thread should be used as a political platform, we know how politicians blag and end up doing sfa. Chances are this will do diddley squat and this news offers a chance to buy cheaper shares. I sold a third just the other day by chance, and will consider re-entry.

They won't do much because if they do the billions they get every year from grab steal and take, (otherwise known as GST) from fuel will reduce.
GST on increased excise fees is a tax on a tax but according to Ardern increased excise on fuel is not a tax. Is it too early for a Tui ?

[Antipodean]

https://comcom.govt.nz/about-us/our-role/competition-studies/fuel-market-study#projecttab

https://comcom.govt.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0030/168357/Retail-fuel-market-study-Draft-Findings-20-August-2019.PDF
https://comcom.govt.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0031/168358/Retail-fuel-market-study-Executive-Summary-for-draft-report-20-August-2019.PDF
https://comcom.govt.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0032/168359/Retail-fuel-market-study-Draft-report-20-August-2019.PDF

[couta1]

They won't do much because if they do the billions they get every year from grab steal and take, (otherwise known as GST) from fuel will reduce.
GST on increased excise fees is a tax on a tax but according to Ardern increased excise on fuel is not a tax. Is it too early for a Tui ? They need as much as they can get for all their nonsense climate change aspirations and all the other PC crap that's costing a fortune in wasted money, poor/low income families needing cheaper petrol dont come into the picture. PS-Go and pour yourself a large glass of A2 milk mixed with your choice of alcohol.

[winner69]

They need as much as they can get for all their nonsense climate change aspirations and all the other PC crap that's costing a fortune in wasted money, poor/low income families needing cheaper petrol dont come into the picture. PS-Go and pour yourself a large glass of A2 milk mixed with your choice of alcohol.

No Couts - bad for him

Beagle now semi retired he says ...I reckon politics is his game now ....he should get in touch with his mate Chris and wangle his way on to the Nat list....and fix the world

[Bjauck]

They need as much as they can get for all their nonsense climate change aspirations and all the other PC crap that's costing a fortune in wasted money, poor/low income families needing cheaper petrol dont come into the picture. PS-Go and pour yourself a large glass of A2 milk mixed with your choice of alcohol. Tackling the cost of housing would really help low income families.

Broadening the tax base as is the situation in other countries by Introducing a CGT while Reducing the rate of excise and reducing GST would have helped low income families too. NZ First put a stop to introducing a CGT.

[Beagle]

Z's response to Govt obfuscation http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ZEL/339450/305709.pdf

Bridges labels Ardern "chief fleecer" https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/bridges-labels-ardern-fleecer-in-chief-as-fuel-debate-heats-up/ar-AAG20Xs?ocid=spartandhp

[Joshuatree]

Peat "I dont think this thread should be used as a political platform, we know how politicians blag and end up doing sfa. "

Agree,otherwise we are going to descend back into the the "old " sharetrader. Its been great up until now but here come the usual suspects lowering the bar already.
.

[Baa_Baa]

https://z.co.nz/motorists/fuel-pricing/

"A good chunk of the cost of each litre of fuel you buy is made up of Government taxes and levies"

"we earn a net profit of about 3-6 cents per litre across our network"

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/112681819/what-we-pay-at-the-pump-why-does-the-price-of-petrol-vary-so-much

"The (AA) says about half of a litre of petrol is tax."


Z's response to Govt obfuscation http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ZEL/339450/305709.pdf

Bridges labels Ardern "chief fleecer" https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/bridges-labels-ardern-fleecer-in-chief-as-fuel-debate-heats-up/ar-AAG20Xs?ocid=spartandhp

[winner69]

"we earn a net profit of about 3-6 cents per litre across our network"




Higher margins than Warehouse Group .....Z shouldn’t complain

[Beagle]

So the AA has confirmed my point that about half the price of fuel is taxes.
Tax makes up more than half the cost of fuel in Auckland due to the regional fuel levy which itself has GST added on again, so again a tax on a regional roading surtax in addition to GST on fuel excise, another tax on a tax and its the fuel companies that are fleecing us...yeah right ! ...time for that drink.

[winner69]

Price of petrol went up today (at least down this way) ....now that’s sending a message

Funny as

[peat]

however (following on from my previous post) according to https://moneyonline.cmail20.com/t/r-l-jdlkxty-kjkjjulduy-y/ the three largest players do have an advantage , through their infrastructure sharing arrangements, and The Commission proposes opening up the wholesale market for petrol and diesel to allow greater participation by competitors in the infrastructure owned by the three big suppliers.

Sounds like forcing the big boys to share their toys with the little boys.

So there is a bit more teeth in this report than earlier reported. It would appear to be quite sure that there are signs of less than desirable competitive forces in the New Zealand transport fuels market

PS Its not about taxes

[couta1]

It's not about taxes, shame about that cause it should be, address the root cause of expensive petrol rather than scapegoating. Lol

[Beagle]

Does anyone else see the irony here ? The same Commerce Commission that now says competition could be better approved the Caltex and Z merger 3 years ago.
https://comcom.govt.nz/news-and-media/media-releases/2016/z-energy-cleared-to-acquire-chevron-subject-to-divestments

[couta1]

Does anyone else see the irony here ? The same Commerce Commission that now says competition could be better approved the Caltex and Z merger a while back. The same Commerce Commision that caused the disgraceful Chorus drama 6 yrs ago, totally inept.

[Baa_Baa]

It's not about taxes, shame about that cause it should be, address the root cause of expensive petrol rather than scapegoating. Lol

Exactly, but the current government will do everything they can to avoid discussion on the ‘in your face’ 50%+ tax take on every litre of fuel, while diverting the conversation to supposed necessary intervention and manipulating the supply side market which will only achieve fringe savings for punters and thoroughly disenfranchise the industry while blatantly protecting their government income.

This government continues to aggravate business, but business will ultimately win as business drives prosperity whereas government intervention in business success drives normalcy and poverty.

It’s so shallow and disingenuous it would be laughable if it wasn’t so real!

[iceman]

Higher margins than Warehouse Group .....Z shouldn’t complain

Z isn't complaining about their 3.6c. Jacinda is complaining about getting only 120c

[winner69]

Z isn't complaining about their 3.6c. Jacinda is complaining about getting only 120c

Booze, fags and petrol ....always been that way

Arnold Nordmeyer was pretty good at upsetting the populous with tax increases on these

[peat]

Booze, fags and petrol ....always been that way

Arnold Nordmeyer was pretty good at upsetting the populous with tax increases on these

Jeeez you're dragging up the ancient history now w69. He died 30 years ago aged 93 , but yes of religious background (Presbyterian) and Labour, perhaps Jacinda sees him as an idol .

Now that petrol has an ecologically friendly alternative there is even more political justification for taxing it hard.

[kiwitrev]

It's all smoke and mirrors. Let's say Z net margin is comparable to the other players and fairly represents the situation. And let's assume the margin is cut by 50%. That means pump price would be less than 2c a litre doesn't it? Hardly worthwhile to anyone. We all know the greatest cost factor is taxes and that can't be disputed whichever way it's sliced and diced.

[Bjauck]

Booze, fags and petrol ....always been that way

Arnold Nordmeyer was pretty good at upsetting the populous with tax increases on these

The populace - or the part of it that has the biggest influence on politicians - is also anti a CGT. So hence the necessity for high excise and high GST.

[Bjauck]

Jeeez you're dragging up the ancient history now w69. He died 30 years ago aged 93 , but yes of religious background (Presbyterian) and Labour, perhaps Jacinda sees him as an idol .

Now that petrol has an ecologically friendly alternative there is even more political justification for taxing it hard.
Why is Nordmeyer’s religion relevant? I think Ardern is agnostic for a start.

[peat]

Why is Nordmeyer’s religion relevant? I think Ardern is agnostic for a start.
I'm just assuming that as a Presbytarian he hated smoking and drinking and taxed them heavily. I understand Jacinda had a Mormon upbringing though may not be in the fold at present.

Perhaps one of the bad things that might come out of the CC is forcing them the 3 larger players to share their infrastructure. It would be a big distraction from core business.

[Bjauck]

I'm just assuming that as a Presbytarian he hated smoking and drinking and taxed them heavily. I understand Jacinda had a Mormon upbringing though may not be in the fold at present.

Perhaps one of the bad things that might come out of the CC is forcing them the 3 larger players to share their infrastructure. It would be a big distraction from core business.
....Not only presbyterians - part of the lifestyle of many religions and non-religious people.

I think big oil is the current whipping post in NZ. Yesterday it may have been Chorus and Telcos in general. Big Supermarkets and Big Building products are in the sights too.

Labour tried to address the inequitable burden of taxation on income earners - but that was stymied with the NZF veto of a CGT. So perhaps now Labour is turning its attention to relieve the burden for those for whom fuel expense eats up a large percentage of their income.

If Labour reduced its GST and excise take on fuel, how would it replace the lost income for government and roading?

[Beagle]

I am in this purely for yield so have I have decided to exit my stake at this stage and will reevaluate my position in due course. The political climate is simply too hostile at present and I have noted a breakdown through the 100 day MA. The blatant hypocrisy of this Government with their rampant and repeated increases in fuel taxes makes me almost physically sick.
AIR has a higher yield and is in my view a better risk-reward proposition at this point, (see my post in that thread this morning) and AIR's yield in my view is likely to be more sustainable over the very long term. FWIW that's where I redirected my capital...not much joy fighting Govt, might as well join with them with their majority stake in the airline. I have learned from my gentailier investments partnering with the Govt is much more rewarding than fighting them ! Good luck to holders.
As stated above, I will reevaluate this one down the track a bit.

[bull....]

looks like jacinda has reinforced the downtrend in price. charts should confirm if goes under 6

[tuaman]

looks like jacinda has reinforced the downtrend in price. charts should confirm if goes under 6
Might soon retirement, electricity and banking stocks follow zel because these stocks are very next target for this govt. should have known this earlier.