ZEL - Z Energy.

[Joshuatree]

Craigs increase target price to $6.22 reduce to hold.

$6.49 if regulators approve(likely)

[nextbigthing]

Craigs increase target price to $6.22 reduce to hold.

$6.49 if regulators approve(likely)

What makes you say the regulators are likely to approve?

[Joshuatree]

From what I've read ; and re still re 51% fuel vol from Bp ,Gull, Mobil etc. Craigs "high likelihood".Going by the re 18% s/p rise i think the mkt thinks it likely too.
But its certainly not a done deal for awhile yet.

[IAK]

Rod Oram's commentary on Z Energy's purchase of Caltex.

http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/201757660/business-commentator-rod-oram

[macduffy]

Rod Oram's commentary on Z Energy's purchase of Caltex.

http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/201757660/business-commentator-rod-oram

Interesting that all Caltex stations are owner-operated. I hadn't realised that was the case and somehow assumed it was a company/owner-operator mix like Z's.

[Joshuatree]

Excellent , thanksIAK. I like the word Synergy and i think Rod oram suggested that when/if they get the go ahead for caltex the s/p will go up by the same amount again or something like that.

[Onion]

Rod Oram's commentary on Z Energy's purchase of Caltex.

http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/201757660/business-commentator-rod-oram

Rod Oram reckons that about half the value of the Caltex purchase is now priced in. I guess the market is hedging its bets on whether the deal will be approved.

[Joshuatree]

Yeah needs to be a done deal,risk removed, and the share price will respond. Then the cap raise. A few comments emerging suggesting it may prove harder to convince regulators and/or ZEL may have to sell off few parts of the business.S/P drifting back a bit from $6.20 to $5.95 but finished at $6 today.

[Joshuatree]

MBIE higher
GRM lower than march
Fuel vols lower than march 2015 and june 2014
total Z transaction count down to 14.1 million .2014 14.6million , 3 less s/stations
Average weekly store sales down on march

Decline in fuel volumes quite marked even like for like. Take off the one off(?) 109 ml export last year and vol still down.
Lack/decline of growth pushed the s/p down. Dissapointing but maybe an indicator of a slowing economy.

[Joshuatree]

Rod Oram reckons that about half the value of the Caltex purchase is now priced in. I guess the market is hedging its bets on whether the deal will be approved.

Holding up very well despite todays potentially neg news re poss dated tax grab; big holders confident of the caltex deal being given the nod; and an independent director announced.ZEL will surely do what ever it takes to get the nod from com com.Downside risk still there though but I'm holding atp.Sold a few at the top to reduce risk more.

[kiora]

Sounds like they are moving along with acquisition
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?T=AG_7GedLrCkPiH5Kw9qOeD&E=NZSE&S=ZEL&N=270550

[Joshuatree]

Yes ; it sure feels good to be in a share hitting a new high amidst the gloom:t_up:. Synergies better than expected; confident of positive com com decision by early Dec.

[banter]

The company expected 03/2017 underlying eps post-merger of 46c.
To this add an extra $10m synergies, and $24m of 'better Z performance' as announced today.
Take off tax and divide by post-takeover shares on issue of approx 430m.
Add also unaccounted-for NZR dividends of $20m.

Gives 56 cps - workings below.
PE ratio of, say, 12-16 for an established well run non-cyclical business.

Gives a valuation range of approx $7-$10.

And $4-$6 if the t/o fails.



Simplified Z valuation post Chevron takeover



SOI post takeover 2)
429.84


ul EPS mar17 post t/o 2)
0.46


Extra $10m synergies 1)
0.017


Better Z performance 24m from 2017 1)
0.040


Est ul EPS to 31/3/17
0.517


NZR dividends
0.046


31/3/17 est ul EPS
0.563






1) https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/221242.pdf


2) p12 https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/214141.pdf


3) 41cps FI *48m shares held / 430m SOI

[Joshuatree]

I remember Rod Oram saying ZEL will be worth re half as much again if this goes thru or something like that. Thanks banter; holding tight atp. Management extremely confident of a yes from comcom.JT

[RRR]

Infratil/super fund selling their stakes. Anyone buying from Craigs? I decided not to.

[Joshuatree]

Superfund still keeping 10% i heard. How much are they ,re $6?. Int they sold before the deal was done on Caltex.The s/p will rise higher .Creates a little doubt about comcoms decision.

[Hoop]

Not the best of timing to buy into a float with Mr Market threatening to morph into a Bear with claws.......but its a good time to exit at a top price..eh?.. $6.00 - $6.20 will be the market price floor (support) during the process...It would be interesting to see what would happen if NZSE suffered another down wave during the process ..could we see the ZEL drop below is book build price??....Whatever the outcome the market will see this as "Smart Money" exiting.

Infratil and NZ Super to sell Z shares
(http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11520980)
You will also have seen in the Media today that Carters have shelved their float (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11520984) due to poor market conditions

[Harvey Specter]

It would be interesting to see what would happen if NZSE suffered another down wave during the process ..could we see the ZEL drop below is book build price??....Whatever the outcome the market will see this as "Smart Money" exiting.During the process - wont the process be done and dusted by COB today?

The question must be asked why IFT are selling. They have held onto 20% of Metlife so they cant say it is standard operating procedure. Likewise they cant say they need the cash as I though they were swimming in it at the moment, unless they have a big purchased lined up.

[bull....]

ift say at a presentation I attended a couple mths ago they would sell z as it was a mature investment for them and they are looking to invest funds in growth assets

[Harvey Specter]

ift say at a presentation I attended a couple mths ago they would sell z as it was a mature investment for them and they are looking to invest funds in growth assetsTrue - I think they did say at the time it was an opportunistic purchase that they got at a good discount to fair value.

[Joshuatree]

They would get more though after com com gave the goahead re caltex hence what have they heard re com com?

[Hoop]

A great technical chart...In hindsight I wish I was in ZEL (money invested elsewhere).
Still in a strong bull mode.

Crafty buggers setting the float price around $6.20 as that price and down to $6.10 will not cause any Technical breaks...

Note:...I'm not a great Trend fan as trendline break during corrections...but look at the primary trend line and notice it had tandem support with the EMA100...together they reinforced that rising support into a very strong supporting structure...

Personally, I would not have sold out on some sell signals knowing that as long as that strong tandem trend held I would assume it would only be a shallow correction playing out.

Where to now?...In a trading halt
The chart is strong no sell signals to date
With the float to be announced I would look to see if 663 becomes a top (a resistance point)...if so I would apply the investing law .. don't buy near resistance levels, buy near support levels with tight stops..

Disc:..Due to the bearish NZ market, I'm bound to my TA discipline to cease buying. Best of luck to the buyers..

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/ZEL%2029092015.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/ZEL%2029092015.png.html)

[Bjauck]

ZEL has been a good investment for IFT. Against market sentiment, IFT's price is up today so far. Perhaps some think it is an opportune time for IFT to exit? MET's SP is up too - does the market think that IFT may be looking to use some of the proceeds to increase its stake in MET?

[Joshuatree]

Maybe but personally its not encouraging me to take up craigs offer ; not that I've heard from them atp.

[kiora]

Superfund still keeping 10% i heard. How much are they ,re $6?. Int they sold before the deal was done on Caltex.The s/p will rise higher .Creates a little doubt about comcoms decision.


Yes very interesting JT,I didn't take up any of the offer or any of the Contact offer(its back to around its offer price) .As Hoop suggests this will most likely reset its share price back to the book build price until the details of the Caltex deal becomes known
What does Infratil know that we don't know ??? Possibilities
Caltex deal in doubt ???
A bigger opportunity coming up for Infratil at a discounted price ???
A big market drop coming up ???
Infratil can't see markets recovering soon or any new opportunities so paying spare cash back to shareholders ???

[Joshuatree]

Yes more prequels then astarwars movie. I still haven't been contacted by my advisor which suggests all the instos and Big sophs may have hoovered up the offer. If so thats a good thing.

[RRR]

I hope the regulators investigate the trading in the last 2 weeks.
Trust but clarify is the mantra!

[kiora]

A great technical chart...In hindsight I wish I was in ZEL (money invested elsewhere).
Still in a strong bull mode.

Crafty buggers setting the float price around $6.20 as that price and down to $6.10 will not cause any Technical breaks...

Note:...I'm not a great Trend fan as trendline break during corrections...but look at the primary trend line and notice it had tandem support with the EMA100...together they reinforced that rising support into a very strong supporting structure...

Personally, I would not have sold out on some sell signals knowing that as long as that strong tandem trend held I would assume it would only be a shallow correction playing out.

Where to now?...In a trading halt
The chart is strong no sell signals to date
With the float to be announced I would look to see if 663 becomes a top (a resistance point)...if so I would apply the investing law .. don't buy near resistance levels, buy near support levels with tight stops..

Disc:..Due to the bearish NZ market, I'm bound to my TA discipline to cease buying. Best of luck to the buyers..

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/ZEL%2029092015.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/ZEL%2029092015.png.html)

Isn't it over brought on Williams % though or is this indicator no good?Chart looks like price has been 'pushed up' ?
Trilogy chart may look better ? ..... For now

[Hoop]

Isn't it over brought on Williams % though or is this indicator no good?Chart looks like price has been 'pushed up' ?
Trilogy chart may look better ? ..... For now

Yep its over bought on the William %R (14) too...The Williams is OK to use..It can be dramatic at times with small non-volatile movements but you can get use to that when you know how the Williams is calculated...Williams can come in handy or can be a curse when stock prices flatline and indicators become less reliable...
The reason why I haven't included it... is...no reason really:)...I had a set of indicators already locked in the program when I actioned the ZEL chart

I've already got a momentum oscillator included, that of RSI (14).......William %R is also a momentum Oscillator ...They both telling the same story (over bought)

[Hoop]

.......Chart looks like price has been 'pushed up' ?....


Hmm... there is strange behaviour.....a mass of buy signals triggered during a flatline of the share price thanks to a big volume day on the 27th August..there was no announcements around this time, but at that time Mr Market called it smart money entering...The price Gap up on the 23rd Sept was when ZEL updated the Market, however the Market had already commenced its rally a couple of weeks before..so a fair question for a Chartist to ask... "was this announcement anticipated?"

[kiora]

Hmm... there is strange behaviour.....a mass of buy signals triggered during a flatline of the share price thanks to a big volume day on the 27th August..there was no announcements around this time, but at that time Mr Market called it smart money entering...The price Gap up on the 23rd Sept was when ZEL updated the Market, however the Market had already commenced its rally a couple of weeks before..so a fair question for a Chartist to ask... "was this announcement anticipated?"

I suspect pushed up beginning of June then given another leg at the end of August.Makes the offer at $6 look cheap.Hence my comment ",the price after the book build":)
And Trilogy ?

[Joshuatree]

Done and dusted.Trading halt lifted.Shares sold to a mix of retail and institutional shareholders. Hoping for the s/p to not fall far today.Did anyone get offered any shares from their adviser/broker?

[Joshuatree]

Opening @$6.00 $6.01

[Joshuatree]

Now $5.75!. what was the placement done at???.

[goldfish]

Yip...I bought in for a quick trade the other day, now sitting on my biggest unrealised loss I have had...:-(

[biker]

Now $5.75!. what was the placement done at???.

Placement at $6. The $5.75 was a very brief spike down. Now 5.85+
Doesn't mean it won't go lower

[biker]

Done and dusted.Trading halt lifted.Shares sold to a mix of retail and institutional shareholders. Hoping for the s/p to not fall far today.Did anyone get offered any shares from their adviser/broker?

Received the standard Craigs offer to apply. I declined. For a start, didn't like the way the share price price was pushed up just prior to the sell down announcement. Smacked of manipulation.

Bought some today on market at $5.85

[kiora]

Done and dusted.Trading halt lifted.Shares sold to a mix of retail and institutional shareholders. Hoping for the s/p to not fall far today.Did anyone get offered any shares from their adviser/broker?

Yep I did but didn't take them :)

[Hoop]

A great technical chart...In hindsight I wish I was in ZEL (money invested elsewhere).
Still in a strong bull mode.

Crafty buggers setting the float price around $6.20 as that price and down to $6.10 will not cause any Technical breaks...

Note:...I'm not a great Trend fan as trendline break during corrections...but look at the primary trend line and notice it had tandem support with the EMA100...together they reinforced that rising support into a very strong supporting structure...

Personally, I would not have sold out on some sell signals knowing that as long as that strong tandem trend held I would assume it would only be a shallow correction playing out.

Where to now?...In a trading halt
The chart is strong no sell signals to date
With the float to be announced I would look to see if 663 becomes a top (a resistance point)...if so I would apply the investing law .. don't buy near resistance levels, buy near support levels with tight stops..

Disc:..Due to the bearish NZ market, I'm bound to my TA discipline to cease buying. Best of luck to the buyers..

The timing of the float is regrettable..it's never a good idea floating during a down wave that looks like the death of the 6.5 year old ancient bull.

Crafty buggers setting the float price around $6.20 as that price and down to $6.10 will not cause any Technical breaks...Maybe I gave them too much credit.....the book build at $6.00 will trigger TA sell signals....

Mr Market is not stupid and this float action is viewed as not a great proposition and Mr Market has priced it below float price...At $5.80 this morning the great looking chart before the trading halt has suddenly broken down and firing of sell signals...The trend is still intact, breaking $5.60 would end the present bull tide....

....so I would apply the investing law .. don't buy near resistance levels, buy near support levels with tight stops..Buying on the $5.60 support would be hazardous to your financial health as it could gap down if broken ..beware


Placement at $6. The $5.75 was a very brief spike down. Now 5.85+
Doesn't mean it won't go lower

No , true..but it has...fallen to 5.79 but seems to be bottoming out for the time being..

I would apply the investing law .. don't buy near resistance levels, buy near support levels with tight stops.. Well well well $6.00 was meant to be the support floor and an attractive price level to buy into the float...however the plans of mice and men went astray and now the $6.00 is the the ceiling, a resistance point and so theoretically not an attractive price level to buy into the float...

Disc:....TA kicked me out of my final remaining share yesterday...All in Cash now (apart from the 2 dogs in my bottom draw kennel)

[Joshuatree]

Monumental stuff up for holders; with com com decision to come.

[RRR]

I do hope regulators look into trading details/patterns in the last few weeks.

I also find it strange that Infratil boss continues to be a board member of ZEL. In my view he should leave!

[Jaa]

I also can't believe they would sell down before comcom publishes its decision on the Caltex acquisition. What do they know that the market doesn't?

[Harvey Specter]

I also find it strange that Infratil boss continues to be a board member of ZEL. In my view he should leave!
He's helped their value increase 4x since acquisition, why not keep him!

Having said that, I assume he will leave in an orderly fashion unlike Weldons AssH... exit from DIL.

[RRR]

He's helped their value increase 4x since acquisition, why not keep him!

Having said that, I assume he will leave in an orderly fashion unlike Weldons AssH... exit from DIL.

But IFT exited the business after making a huge profit - good on him and IFT. But their money is not at stake anymore and that is a huge difference! So, in principle he should actually announce his exit date and leave it to someone else who has .....

[kiora]

The timing of the float is regrettable..it's never a good idea floating during a down wave that looks like the death of the 6.5 year old ancient bull.

Crafty buggers setting the float price around $6.20 as that price and down to $6.10 will not cause any Technical breaks...Maybe I gave them too much credit.....the book build at $6.00 will trigger TA sell signals....

Mr Market is not stupid and this float action is viewed as not a great proposition and Mr Market has priced it below float price...At $5.80 this morning the great looking chart before the trading halt has suddenly broken down and firing of sell signals...The trend is still intact, breaking $5.60 would end the present bull tide....

....so I would apply the investing law .. don't buy near resistance levels, buy near support levels with tight stops..Buying on the $5.60 support would be hazardous to your financial health as it could gap down if broken ..beware



No , true..but it has...fallen to 5.79 but seems to be bottoming out for the time being..

I would apply the investing law .. don't buy near resistance levels, buy near support levels with tight stops.. Well well well $6.00 was meant to be the support floor and an attractive price level to buy into the float...however the plans of mice and men went astray and now the $6.00 is the the ceiling, a resistance point and so theoretically not an attractive price level to buy into the float...

Disc:....TA kicked me out of my final remaining share yesterday...All in Cash now (apart from the 2 dogs in my bottom draw kennel)

I cleaned out my dogs 3 weeks ago ,proceeds to TIL :)

[Joshuatree]

What re 128 million plus shares sold; $770 million worth.No new 5% holders announced atp.So Infratils 80 mill shares + NZSF's 38.9 mill shares=118.9 mill. Re another 9-10 million been dumped today as well. People/Instos selling out becoming risk averse to poss neg com/com decision....risk on in dodgy mkts. There will be some buyers really pissed off with there brokers/advisors and public relations soured atp.As well as the poss manipulation of s/p up, mentioned on here Im thinking com com will give the go ahead but ZEL may have to sell something/s; but I'm just surmising ;and holding my shares atp.

[Joshuatree]

ACC are a new 5% plus holder. Taken up some of NZ Super's dump maybe.Fine by me and a vote of confidence. ACC's track record has been excellent but I'm not up to date with the performance comparisons.

[biker]

Mr Market is not stupid and this float action is viewed as not a great proposition and Mr Market has priced it below float price...At $5.80 this morning the great looking chart before the trading halt has suddenly broken down and firing of sell signals...The trend is still intact, breaking $5.60 would end the present bull tide....

....so I would apply the investing law .. don't buy near resistance levels, buy near support levels with tight stops..Buying on the $5.60 support would be hazardous to your financial health as it could gap down if broken ..beware



I would apply the investing law .. don't buy near resistance levels, buy near support levels with tight stops.. Well well well $6.00 was meant to be the support floor and an attractive price level to buy into the float...however the plans of mice and men went astray and now the $6.00 is the the ceiling, a resistance point and so theoretically not an attractive price level to buy into the float...

Disc:....TA kicked me out of my final remaining share yesterday...All in Cash now (apart from the 2 dogs in my bottom draw kennel)

Well, not sure what all that means but the share price has returned very quickly to $6.70 and buying at 5.85 doesnt seem like a bad move, up over 14% regardless of TA.

[Joshuatree]

Well, not sure what all that means but the share price has returned very quickly to $6.35 and buying at 5.85 doesnt seem like a bad move, up over 8% regardless of TA.

Yeah sometimes TA just creates a big sticky tangle to trap one to be negative/ numb. Meanwhile I'm on my way to double bagger at this rate.
Craigs revised their 12 month target price up 22c to $6.81 back in Sep.. Currently $6.74 and rising; some super confident of a positive decision re takeover; hope they are right .

[Joshuatree]

Z Energy record profit forecast (http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/361859/z-energy-record-profit-forecast)

Looking better better better biker. Now we await com com

[Joshuatree]

From the latest com com annoucement.S/P dropped a few cents

"The merger application is complex and involves a number of markets throughout the fuel supplychain. We have identified and notified Z Energy of several areas that we are continuing toinvestigate. These include storage terminals, aviation fuel, bitumen and the supply of diesel tocustomers who purchase it in bulk or through truck stops. Further work is also required toinvestigate the retail supply of petrol and diesel, as there are a number of retail sites where, if themerger proceeded, few options would remain for consumers.
We are assessing the competition effects of the proposed merger in these markets in consultationwith Z Energy and market participants. "

[Joshuatree]

Good to see Z putting charging units in for Electric cars and offering Biofuel.They are very aware of the sea change ahead.

[Joshuatree]

Commerce commision "requested" an extension in its consideration of the companies application to acquire chevron.S/P off 3.3% to $6.48 atm.

[xafalcon]

This is groundhog day for comcom

Exactly what they did to CNU, twice

Who knows what to read into the delay

[macduffy]

This is groundhog day for comcom

Exactly what they did to CNU, twice

Who knows what to read into the delay

On the other hand, perhaps they have learnt from the CNU experience not to come to a decision without checking the facts!

[bull....]

speaking off solid stocks to own when things are dicey this one must be one to own - makes money when oil goes up, makes even more when oil goes down - not kidding or complaining from a shareholder perspective.

[bull....]

selling of hard, must be on concerns there margins are going to be lower when they are forced to drop petrol prices to match the fall in oil.
doesn't the AA make you laugh with there commentary they should do there homework better margins are the highest ever

[macduffy]

Good to see Z putting charging units in for Electric cars and offering Biofuel.They are very aware of the sea change ahead.

Just as well, if this article has the timing anywhere right!

http://www.wsj.com/articles/in-the-future-chevys-going-to-need-a-bigger-bolt-1455215871

Disc: Holding a few.

[Joshuatree]

Commerce Commission update (https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/231674.pdf) Tracking up well from the low of re $5.80 in Feb. Negotiations with com com continue; mkt seems to think this is positive.

[Muppett]

Does anyone know what Craig's or Forsythbarr etc... value ZEL at?

Disc. Holding quiet a few.

[bohemian]

Craigs have a target of $7.40.

[Muppett]

Many thanks.

[Joshuatree]

Are we there yet..... wait a mo....Double bagger:t_up:

[bull....]

broke resistance 6.80 tested it and held off to the races now 7.50 short term target according to the stars

[IAK]

Clearance from Commerce commission https://www.nzx.com/companies/ZEL/announcements/281477

[bull....]

cool ill be surprised if it doesn't hit my 7.50 interim target

[BC_Doc]

cool ill be surprised if it doesn't hit my 7.50 interim target

wow, i did not foresee the market opening up at 7.75.........

[bohemian]

I'm a very happy Z investor from day one. Great call by Craig's Mark Lister.

[Schrodinger]

definite buy now but has this been factored into the price..

[Beagle]

SP up 56% in the last year and the Com Com don't think this purchase will lead to a lessening in competition in the fuel industry...YEAH RIGHT...someone hand me a Tui..very, very.sad news for motorists.

[bull....]

SP up 56% in the last year and the Com Com don't think this purchase will lead to a lessening in competition in the fuel industry...YEAH RIGHT...someone hand me a Tui..very, very.sad news for motorists.

was there really any competition? :)

[Joshuatree]

A Z ORRO Moment; Heigh ho Silv..."CaChing"
$25-$30 mill in synergy savings
19 retail and 1 truck stop to sell.Equal to 17 days per gas station; ComCom on a gravytrain?
Remainder of funding will all be from debt; no cap raise as originally signalled
Guidance 12th May and update in June
Great for holders ; don't know about buying ,Silver has already bolted!

[Beagle]

was there really any competition? :)

Not really..in certain areas where there is a Gull and then only at certain times... but this will only exacerbate the issue. Com Com perhaps need a reality check ?

[Arbroath]

Not really..in certain areas where there is a Gull and then only at certain times... but this will only exacerbate the issue. Com Com perhaps need a reality check ?

There definitely is competition but it is patchy as Gull are not nationwide yet. In Hamilton the self-service Gull is 162.9 and here in New Plymouth all the stations are conveniently 187.9 or 189.9. Total rort. Gull coming to Taranaki later this year can't be soon enough.

The Comcom are worse than a wet paper towel - they could learn a bit from the ACCC.

[IAK]

was there really any competition? :)

There'll be some competition in the future (whenever that happens) with the uptake of electric vehicles. Classic disruptive technology. http://www.sciencealert.com/the-netherlands-is-making-moves-to-ban-all-non-electric-vehicles-by-2025

[sb9]

SP up 56% in the last year and the Com Com don't think this purchase will lead to a lessening in competition in the fuel industry...YEAH RIGHT...someone hand me a Tui..very, very.sad news for motorists.

NZ Com Com seem to approve anything that comes their way these days. Gotta question their due diligence/vetting process in some cases.

[Raz]

Well sold on the basis they (the Com Com) would do the right thing..got that wrong..never mind!! Must remember regulatory frameworks don't really work in NZ.

Easier to take this stuff on holiday....

[Joshuatree]

36,400,000 shares shares selling by NZSF @$8.01 leaving re 5.8 mill shares. May well be selling out completely.

[Joshuatree]

Fonterra being responsible; with 550 tankers will reduce emissions by up tp 4% a year by switching to Z's bio fuel.

[Beagle]

It'll be very interesting to see how the reliability of their diesel engines goes on that stuff. I've had enough issues with bad fuel going into diesel engines to last this lifetime. Just give me the pure oil based diesel and fresh uncontaminated batchs of it at that. Now we're down to ultra low sulphur diesel 10-15 ppm its vastly better than the old days of 3,000 ppm sulphur :eek2: in the diesel.
Oil doesn't turn jet black in 5 minutes either with ultra low sulphur diesel. Happy to let others be the guniea pigs of that biodiesel.

[Joshuatree]

Yes good point.Its up to ZEL to prove their biodiesel up and get rid of the negative overhangs of the past fuel issues.

[Joshuatree]

Hate it when this happens.Z is limping down and closing in on 200DMA close to a sell signal with the RSI weak.Re a 12 % drop from its high.Has only dipped very briefly below 200DMA in the last two years but looking inevitable atp to move down through it. Reason ?i haven't one yet.anyone else?.

[cyclist]

Hate it when this happens.Z is limping down and closing in on 200DMA close to a sell signal with the RSI weak.Re a 12 % drop from its high.Has only dipped very briefly below 200DMA in the last two years but looking inevitable atp to move down through it. Reason ?i haven't one yet.anyone else?.

There is a lot happening on the competition /margin front I think and it will be interesting to see how that translates to the bottom line. With an official 91 price of $1.969 at the moment, the number of towns etc that are now routinely 20 c/l less than that have increased significantly over the last couple of years, for the road trips I do . Add to that the new Fly Buys instant discounts (which they needed, to compete with the AA Reward discounts) and there must be a bit of pressure.

Much like AIR and NZR, if the TA fires off sell signals, it is probably best to step aside and see where it settles.

Disc: Anecdotal commentary only. I have not followed ZEL closely.

[peat]

its all this electric car talk. a large number of corporates have committed their fleets to moving electric, IFT are talking electric buses. soon even trucks will be charging up.
It may take a while , but it is inevitable. And the future arrives faster than you think.

[bull....]

its all this electric car talk. a large number of corporates have committed their fleets to moving electric, IFT are talking electric buses. soon even trucks will be charging up.
It may take a while , but it is inevitable. And the future arrives faster than you think.

check out there electric vehicle presentation very interesting - the waka scenario is really scary for Z

[Joshuatree]

Thanks guys. S/P has bounced up to $8.15 dipped since to$8.02 up re 4 %. Craigs and others were saying oversold @$7.72.
Perpetual have sold down 4 mill plus shares.
4 announcements out since my post too; heres the electric car one
Z Energy 'house view' - electric vehicles (https://www.nzx.com/companies/ZEL/announcements/291038)

[Joshuatree]

Its a very good read(Z house view).heres 1 little snippet

Manufacturers’ research and development focus is now predominantly electricpowertrains, with some manufacturers intending to stop any further internal combustionengine R&D by 2025. The six renowned Japanese automobile manufacturers (Toyota,Nissan, Honda, Suzuki, Mazda and Mitsubishi) all have expansive targets and plans
to increase production capacity of EV car models. Similarly, the main Europeanmanufacturers that supply the New Zealand car market (Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Audi and Renault) have consistent plans. The most prominent example is BMWwith its recent public announcement that “the future is electric – a new strategy to rollout more electric cars and add self-driving features faster than their rivals”.

[macduffy]

Thanks, Jt, an interesting read.

Z make the statement " with no upstream interest in fossil fuels" they are well placed for an EV future. No "upstream" interest but they do have a significant interest in NZ Refining whose entire business is the refining of fossil fuels.

I hold a few Z's.

[macduffy]

Increased profit and dividend from ZEL - the "Caltex" effect.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11745581

[hamish]

I must say, thanks MacDuffy for posting that. it's a good read.

This news put ZEL on the radar for me and have bought 3 reasonable bundles now circa $7.10 -$7-20. I liked that post merge they have 49% market share and gain synergies (cost out) as they consolidate the 2 business models post acquisition. There was an interesting post in past few days by Percy, where he shared that he looks for stock future EPS growth to be 2 times P/E - so I took a look at 4-traders financial forecast today for ZEL and fits the bill at present (2x to 4x P/E 2016-2018 estimated); with target price $8.51 and outperform. I'm no chartist, yet looks like we had the double bottom (?) during December and perhaps soon to cross the 90MA, possible 100MA.
Expecting also Increased profits passed on from NZR with it's good run of late too on refining margins as a factor.
Possibly on the way to $8 SP?

[Subway]

The way I see it Z doesn't just supply cars, they have significant commercial supply lines, and these aren't going to suddenly switch to electric anytime soon (in some cases, ever). But when you look at their retail business model they have retail shops that just happen to supply fuel as well, the shops do they heavy lifting when it comes to generating profit, and if anything, the sites could be redeveloped if and when the time comes to include more superchargers/electric car chargers. In the US the Supercharger sites with cafes/shopping provide a captive opportunity for retail operators as more often than not, the drivers need to wait around for their cars to charge.

My 2c anyway.

[bull....]

looks like the threat of an enquiry into petrol prices is causing the price to fall, doubt it will happen myself bridges threatened as well and nothing happened so Im picking Collins will be no different.

margins are looking very good the best for years so expecting a bumper result.

8645

a crude example of the spread between nzd and oil price.
2013 - oil at $100 odd nzd over 80c petrol 91 $2 odd litre
2017 - oil at $54 nzd at 73c and petrol $2 odd for 91 in some places

see what I mean bumper profits are the norm lol nice divs to come

[Joshuatree]

Good interview on NZR with Z about EV's
EVs and the impact on traditional fuel businesses (http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/201832397/evs-and-the-impact-on-traditional-fuel-businesses)

[Joshuatree]

BTW ,Mike Bennetts pretty relaxed and confident re Collins looking at their fuel fees citing the number crunchers figs always being outdated; by 3 months whereas Z's are fresh each week. .

[bull....]

Good interview on NZR with Z about EV's
EVs and the impact on traditional fuel businesses (http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/201832397/evs-and-the-impact-on-traditional-fuel-businesses)

wont be any impact on nzr or z for years. the price of ev cars does not stack up against the payback just like solar really doesn't stack up. unless incentives are introduced but do you really think the govt will introduce incentives it would affect there govt revenues twice.

[bull....]

BTW ,Mike Bennetts pretty relaxed and confident re Collins looking at their fuel fees citing the number crunchers figs always being outdated; by 3 months whereas Z's are fresh each week. .

funny I agree with mike Bennett the aa for example have no idea lol

[hamish]

Did anyone happen to go to investor briefing in Wellington last night? I had a meeting run late after 5pm..definitely Interested in update on synergies of merger and also impacts on imported fuel/discounting. Hopefully they post a briefing pack today.

[hamish]

Almost back to $7.50 today and broken through the 30dayMA and 100dayMA past couple of weeks. I see that IML bought in > 5% stake from Jan through March, per SSH. Looking forward to 11 May results and update on synergies from Caltex amalgamation. Should see improved operating margin and final div > 20cps fully imputed...?

Can't find any news yet since Feb17 on the MBIE review of importer margins other than to say it's due end June17. (http://www.stuff.co.nz/auckland/local-news/rodney-times/89648004/Fuel-pricing-to-be-exposed-by-MBIE). Anyone seen any updates? Remains a dampener.

How well is the uptake of their 3 loyalty Programmes growing an engaged customer base / stickiness (App driven) married with the off-setting of the discontinued supermarket dockets Programme?? They last reported the revamped loyalty drive had offset 70% of the $22m at risk there.

A couple of stats that seemed to auger well from last briefing... what's the latest figures?
- Average weekly store sales improving YOY
- Average weekly store transactions improving YOY

Continued jet fuel growth and positioning (import vs refine)?
Risk and impacts of more direct importing via competitors and price discounting?

Lot's of questions - They are/were due to update in April17 their 'Strategy 3.0' play, innovation pipeline (including EV) and revised deleverage / debt position.

Seriously - watching with fascination how their growth strategy may yet play out and be executed vs watching with equal fascination how the 'growth' strategy at the likes of the Warehouse is evolving :-) ........

Discl: Hold

[bull....]

Almost back to $7.50 today and broken through the 30dayMA and 100dayMA past couple of weeks. I see that IML bought in > 5% stake from Jan through March, per SSH. Looking forward to 11 May results and update on synergies from Caltex amalgamation. Should see improved operating margin and final div > 20cps fully imputed...?

Can't find any news yet since Feb17 on the MBIE review of importer margins other than to say it's due end June17. (http://www.stuff.co.nz/auckland/local-news/rodney-times/89648004/Fuel-pricing-to-be-exposed-by-MBIE). Anyone seen any updates? Remains a dampener.

How well is the uptake of their 3 loyalty Programmes growing an engaged customer base / stickiness (App driven) married with the off-setting of the discontinued supermarket dockets Programme?? They last reported the revamped loyalty drive had offset 70% of the $22m at risk there.

A couple of stats that seemed to auger well from last briefing... what's the latest figures?
- Average weekly store sales improving YOY
- Average weekly store transactions improving YOY

Continued jet fuel growth and positioning (import vs refine)?
Risk and impacts of more direct importing via competitors and price discounting?

Lot's of questions - They are/were due to update in April17 their 'Strategy 3.0' play, innovation pipeline (including EV) and revised deleverage / debt position.

Seriously - watching with fascination how their growth strategy may yet play out and be executed vs watching with equal fascination how the 'growth' strategy at the likes of the Warehouse is evolving :-) ........

Discl: Hold

Its not surprising if store sales increase as most Caltex stores had very limited store sales so plenty of scope to grow.
Actually in fact it is only a very few stores that make up the majority of all store sales across most networks.

[JoeGrogan]

Nice finish at the end of the day today. Anticipating the results announcement this month. The short term chart is looking good, will be interesting to see if it can pass $7.67

Discl: hold

[JoeGrogan]

Nice finish at the end of the day today. Anticipating the results announcement this month. The short term chart is looking good, will be interesting to see if it can pass $7.67

Discl: hold

Seems to have broken through to new highs, short term chart looking good.

[Joshuatree]

Re $8.87 is the high ,but looking good atm, just cutting 200DMA on increasing vol.

[JoeGrogan]

Re $8.87 is the high ,but looking good atm, just cutting 200DMA on increasing vol.

Yeah of course $8.87, should of said it broke the previous level of resistance. Looking like a double bottom.

[Joshuatree]

AA snippett fromm craigss FWIWW T/P $8.500

Z Energy: Result expected at top end of range
FY17 ends well, with FY18 on track for a good performance
ZEL will be reporting FY17 results on the 11 May 2017We forecast EBITDA before merger costs of NZ$414m, at the top end of ZEL’s guidance range of NZ$385m-415m. This is as while the group has seen some headwinds during the year, particularlythe GRM rebate from NZR and volume falls that have resulted from divestments and thechangeover from supermarket dockets, we expect that this will be more than mitigated bymargin expansion.

[hamish]

Thanks JT for the info. It's a fair summary and re-itterates the margin expansion story...

Sentiment is similar in ForsythBarr commentary (per their free app)....
Our rating is outperform. ZELs acquisition of Caltex provides it with significant opportunity to deliver further material earnings growth. We are positive on the transaction and believe ZEL will be able to deliver synergy benefits greater than it's guidance. In addition an ZEL's underlying operational performance continues to be strong.

Look forward to next week results.

[bull....]

nice bounce from 7 support

[hamish]

Happy Holder with this result. Exceeded EBITDA top-end guidance by 1%, significant increased eps, increase divvy to 29.9dps for full FY, measured reduction in leverage. Tick.

What strikes me most from this report is how keenly their sense of purpose"Solving for a moving world" comes through and how they value leadership, environment, safety and then the results follow. The sense of 'one' is further amplified by the integration of Caltex.


Great quote to start with - "Standing in the future of what can be and working backwards from there informs how you do things now"... so many Orgs focus on the now and try to micro-step forward. This sets the tone.


The visuals on how they create value and their supply chain really resonate - Simple, elegant. IMO - There's also some clever subtext in here I'm sure they'll use as reference for the MBIE review.


CEO Summary on page 12 is insightful on the culture they desire
- "we were able to meet our obligations and stay true to Z’s values: be straight up; have the passion; back people; share everything; be bold."
- "In a world where big companies are often seen as bad companies, Z will not be a big bad company. We are committed to remaining a good corporate citizen"
- The next iteration of our strategy will be capability led
- At Z, everyone’s a leader whether they’re a leader of self or a leader of people.


and Innovation - "Towards the end of the year, we established an innovation team that will build a certain type of capability: a willingness to experiment, operate on limited information, and not be afraid of failure." Good to see the hire of Chief Innovation Officer

They have their eye on the future and are looking to be ahead of the curve...... polar opposite it seems to the likes of SKT, WHS.

Great quote about the role of the Board - The Board is a thought partner, not approver.

Towards the end, their 3.0 Strategy will be presented at their investor day in Sept. Based on how they seem to be thinking ahead and acting now, should be interesting to see how EV, direct importing, sites and logistics, loyalty & building customer relationships, etc plays forward

[Joshuatree]

Thanks hamish just seen this now ,lots to like and another $40 million in synergies($17 mill so far) to save from the CTX deal
BUT competition alive and well and healthy

"Z’s volume and margin on a cent per litre basis were down over the year as competition in themarket continues and reflecting Z’s diversification of its retail business model. Z’s fuel grossmargin decreased to 17.6 cents per litre (cpl), down 17 per cent, from the previous year.
“We think fuel margins are top of cycle and expect some softening over the coming year as aresult of the multitude of new participants in the industry fighting for a share of the market.
“The Caltex acquisition gives us the scale and a portfolio of options to deliver distinctive valuewithout an undue reliance on fuel margin."


“For example there are now 21 different brands operating in the New Zealand market and 43per cent of all retail service stations, representing 20 per cent of all retail fuel sales, are now inthe hands of independent brands. This number has grown and continues to grow rapidly.
“Additionally, 70 per cent of all service stations, regardless of the brand, are owned andoperated by independent ‘mum and dad’ business owners who run their own business and settheir own price.”

Biodiesel plant a year behind schedule

Outlook and guidance
Mike Bennetts said Z was forecasting RC Operating EBITDAF of between $445 - $475 million andcapital expenditure up to $90 million for the 2018 financial year. The capex guidance coversboth the ERP and card replacement projects

[hamish]

Yup, Great comment. They're eyes wide open on their risks it seems and open about communicating these.

Side note for some light relief - doing my bit to increase shareholder value... been using the Z App, Air NZ App as examples of building customer relationships and getting clients I influence to download different Apps to explore various 'stages' and approaches (Z App formative & 'MVP', Air NZ App/experience maturing & deepening engagements, Powershop App - great UX and self-serve)..

So, maybe 500 people by now for Z.... Anything to help lift sales..!

[JoeGrogan]

stellar result, will go through it properly when i get some more time, but also a happy holder.

[bull....]

z being doing nice, reckon margins are very juicy at the moment with dollar up and oil down heaps but petrol prices not falling - nice juicy profits at the moment

[bull....]

another fall in oil and rise in dollar looking good margins possibly best ever now I reckon, oil down 10%, nz dollar up 5% last 30 days of course the assumption is not based on all variables but 2 very important ones

[bull....]

Judith Collins saying petrol report due out end of the month.

I'm thinking there say margins appear a little large ( As sometimes thinking of why petrol prices havnt fallen at the pump recently maybe they are waiting for the report and then can say ok look we have dropped them now 5c are you happy )
gull is providing good competition in the market everything is honky dory anyway cant see them saying to much as there tax take will decline.

[macduffy]

Judith Collins saying petrol report due out end of the month.

I'm thinking there say margins appear a little large ( As sometimes thinking of why petrol prices havnt fallen at the pump recently maybe they are waiting for the report and then can say ok look we have dropped them now 5c are you happy )
gull is providing good competition in the market everything is honky dory anyway cant see them saying to much as there tax take will decline.

There's been a couple of downward adjustments in the last few days, around Wellington , at least. Probably reflecting the weakness in the POO - but also good timing at this stage of the inquiry.

;)

[bull....]

There's been a couple of downward adjustments in the last few days, around Wellington , at least. Probably reflecting the weakness in the POO - but also good timing at this stage of the inquiry.

;)

don't think theres been any adjustment in price of petrol where I live.

Anyway price of oil continues to fall down 20% now

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-21/oil-holds-slide-into-bear-market-as-libya-to-u-s-raise-supply

and the NZ dollar continues to soar so that's why I stand by thinking margins for Z are booming.

[bull....]

petrol report next week, be interesting to see if the big fat juicy profits are to continue

[JoeGrogan]

Market not liking the MBIE report...

[peat]

Market not liking the MBIE report...

but seemingly it is obsolescent on day of publications , according to Z it uses no data from the last 18 months.
but yes Z is a sell at these levels in my humble opinion.
Business model is dying..... see electric cars thread ;+)

[JeremyALD]

Didn't really seem like MBIE said that much despite not reading the full report. The recommendations weren't anything major, aside from further discussion and investigation. Anyone else pick up something different from me?

[Beagle]

Pretty clear they are not happy. Report is worded in sauch a way as to imply the matter is actionable. Regulatory risk would be a concern if I were a Z shareholder scalping retail motorists.

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/163d1b60/nz-petrol-market-may-not-be-competitive-margins-higher-in-wellington-south-island-study-finds.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NZ%20petrol%20market%20may%20not%20be %20competitive%20margins%20higher%20in%20Wellingto n%20South%20Island%20study%20finds&utm_content=NZ%20petrol%20market%20may%20not%20be% 20competitive%20margins%20higher%20in%20Wellington %20South%20Island%20study%20finds+CID_a488b5abf6ce 1ae4f42ed0de007483bf&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle163d1b60nz-petrol-market-may-not-be-competitive-margins-higher-in-wellington-south-island-study-findshtml

Pretty decent sized bone for the Commerce Commission to chew on.

[JeremyALD]

Pretty clear they are not happy. Report is worded in sauch a way as to imply the matter is actionable. Regulatory risk would be a concern if I were a Z shareholder scalping retail motorists.

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/163d1b60/nz-petrol-market-may-not-be-competitive-margins-higher-in-wellington-south-island-study-finds.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NZ%20petrol%20market%20may%20not%20be %20competitive%20margins%20higher%20in%20Wellingto n%20South%20Island%20study%20finds&utm_content=NZ%20petrol%20market%20may%20not%20be% 20competitive%20margins%20higher%20in%20Wellington %20South%20Island%20study%20finds+CID_a488b5abf6ce 1ae4f42ed0de007483bf&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle163d1b60nz-petrol-market-may-not-be-competitive-margins-higher-in-wellington-south-island-study-findshtml

Thanks Roger (Beagle), good summary and pretty much what I took out of the report, not really that damning or surprising but does create some uncertainty in the future.

[bull....]

report out as expected a load of ho - hum we dont really know whats happening but it could be bad or it couldnt im not sure whats really happening but you know it could be bad lol.

[Beagle]

Crusher Collins out in the NBR saying Kiwi's are probably paying too much for fuel. This thing probably has legs in an election year.

[Joshuatree]

Sure will; 50 c in every $ of gas is tax.

[Beagle]

Sure will; 50 c in every $ of gas is tax. and the rest, its higher than that mate including the GST component.

[cyclist]

and the rest, its higher than that mate including the GST component.

Yep. $0.665 excise tax (see here (http://www.aa.co.nz/cars/maintenance/fuel-prices-and-types/petrol/)), plus around $0.25 of GST assuming a $1.85 fuel price. Total north of 90c.

[Joshuatree]

Cheers guys. National radio said 50c in every $1 spent (not litre) today prob adds up the same . You'd think the Govt could do the same as the gas stations and have days of tax reduction specials; would be a winner.Hope the Labour govt do it.:sleep:

[hardt]

Cheers guys. National radio said 50c in every $1 spent (not litre) today prob adds up the same . You'd think the Govt could do the same as the gas stations and have days of tax reduction specials; would be a winner.Hope the Labour govt do it.:sleep:

Do you mean have state owned gas stations?

[Joshuatree]

:DHeavens no; happy Z shareholder here.And if one looks at Z's FY ,doesn't look like they're being pigs to me.

[bull....]

:DHeavens no; happy Z shareholder here.And if one looks at Z's FY ,doesn't look like there being pigs to me.

yes nice big juicy divs and profits to continue, govt's like to play politics with petrol companies they have done it before and they do it again but at the end of the day nothing happens - why they have a vested interest.

[bull....]

Z back to pre announcement level , just goes to show load of bollocks that report.

[stoploss]

Z back to pre announcement level , just goes to show load of bollocks that report.

I think that's what TEL thought( or the management at least ) when the govt was looking at breaking them up ......

[bull....]

I think that's what TEL thought( or the management at least ) when the govt was looking at breaking them up ......

never happen the govt needs the tax - $8 now beautiful uptrend and buying after that report came out

[JoeGrogan]

never happen the govt needs the tax - $8 now beautiful uptrend and buying after that report came out

Hopefully it is breakout time, $8 has been solid resistance recently...

[bull....]

Hopefully it is breakout time, $8 has been solid resistance recently...

8 has been stubborn resistance for sure see what happens next while if holds might even get to new highs then ?

[bull....]

collins and bennett at war?

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/96883467/energy-minister-questions-z-energys-public-disclosures-about-fuel-margins

maybe why the share price under pressure? guessing shes upset her commissioned report was laughed at by a lot of people

[JeremyALD]

Another falling knife developing?

[bull....]

Another falling knife developing?

yea coundnt get over $8 was a warning sign

[Joshuatree]

NPAT up 10% and interim divi up from 9.4 to 10.4c increasing in 19. S/P zoomed back above 60DMA on increasing vol.

"Currently Z has been following a policy objective to increase dividends by 10 per cent per annum.From the start of FY19 this will be replaced by a commitment to pay as dividend 80 - 100 per cent ofunderlying free cash flows (defined as net cash inflow from operating activities less maintenancecapex and principal debt repayments and adjusted for short term working capital fluctuations). "
Z Energy half year results to end of September 2017 (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/310003)

[bull....]

nice jump from $7 support

[sanctus671]

any reason for the latest surge?

[JeremyALD]

any reason for the latest surge?

Very strange. Broker upgrades and people realising the half result was actually pretty good I guess.

[bull....]

any reason for the latest surge?

not surprising action it has been trading in a range of between $7 -$8 for the last 2 years , smart cookies were buying at 7 and if lucky selling at 8

[bull....]

still waiting for 8 lol its in the middle ,:confused: petrol margins are fantastic? best ever i reckon

[bull....]

tounched our $8 today up a buck from the bottom so far , lets see if it goes this time

[Joshuatree]

I reckon the Santa and his helpers rally ,timing to take it over the top.:D

[bull....]

I reckon the Santa and his helpers rally ,timing to take it over the top.:D

looked good yesterday a , but no cigar again, beaten down from 8 again

[theace]

Dip due to the earning downgrade .... have been thinking about getting into it ... wonder ~$7.50ish is good enough. Toughts?

[Beagle]

Not a company I follow so not prepared to opine in detail but I just want to say that I think in the long run the rate of uptake of electric vehicles might surprise many on here and some of the fuel companies too. An industry in long term systemic decline ?, you be the judge.

[hamish]

It seems to cycle between circa late $6 and $8ish
- with positive sentiment driven by their scale (now with Caltex integrated) in NZ, growing jet fuel product consumption and value services, and changes to dividend Policy (greater payout probability)
- negative sentiment driven by the concerns re 'national' pricing, ongoing Govt potential intervention (SP sneezes when Govt make announcements), EV impacts, competition

They do have their eyes ahead to the future and EV impacts (their JV/investment in WLG on Mevo for example). They do come across as a forward looking Org vs stagnant or head in sand (like SKT, WHS). Personally, I rate their CEO.

We bought an EV, so it sometimes feels weird to be a Z shareholder. We use their charge stations, so I have an interest in how they adapt their business model over time to this technology shift

Disc: I have been buying in on dips and selling out on these peaks

[bull....]

It seems to cycle between circa late $6 and $8ish
- with positive sentiment driven by their scale (now with Caltex integrated) in NZ, growing jet fuel product consumption and value services, and changes to dividend Policy (greater payout probability)
- negative sentiment driven by the concerns re 'national' pricing, ongoing Govt potential intervention (SP sneezes when Govt make announcements), EV impacts, competition

They do have their eyes ahead to the future and EV impacts (their JV/investment in WLG on Mevo for example). They do come across as a forward looking Org vs stagnant or head in sand (like SKT, WHS). Personally, I rate their CEO.

We bought an EV, so it sometimes feels weird to be a Z shareholder. We use their charge stations, so I have an interest in how they adapt their business model over time to this technology shift

Disc: I have been buying in on dips and selling out on these peaks

buy the troughs sell the tops seems to work well with this at the moment

[Joshuatree]

ZEL putting a positive spin on the future of EV.
House View 02: Future Moves (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/313535)

[bull....]

sitting right at the bottom of our trading range now , havnt decided yet weather i play the range again looks a bit iffy this time

[sanctus671]

Been eyeing it up as well. $6.90 is lower than usual though and it's been sitting here for a while now. Does make me a bit nervous that there is something I don't know about. Then again, the market in general has been quite stale. Report coming up early April with div in May. Is there anything that could push this one even lower?

[bull....]

Been eyeing it up as well. $6.90 is lower than usual though and it's been sitting here for a while now. Does make me a bit nervous that there is something I don't know about. Then again, the market in general has been quite stale. Report coming up early April with div in May. Is there anything that could push this one even lower?

agree with your thinking around general market , rising market makes it easier to play the range otherwise more risk

[Valiant]

SP hovering below $7 for some time now. What are peoples thoughts, the potential govt intervention weighing over this SP too much?

[bull....]

SP hovering below $7 for some time now. What are peoples thoughts, the potential govt intervention weighing over this SP too much?

its trying to break back into its multi mth range of 7 - 8 overall market strenght is helping

[bull....]

nice result and it managed to get back in its range , wonder if we have the gas to get back to 8 again

[bull....]

powered on the gas yesterday back to the middle of the range again

[Sideshow Bob]

Probably not the best timing for a profit result, given petrol company profit debates and current govt excitement in having BP in their crosshairs. Just wish they'd have a looking at the grocery market instead....

[bull....]

Probably not the best timing for a profit result, given petrol company profit debates and current govt excitement in having BP in their crosshairs. Just wish they'd have a looking at the grocery market instead....

just more pr spin by the govt , higher petrol prices means more tax for govt , couldnt agree more over the food duopoly

[Joshuatree]

Agree with you both. Judith Colins used to trot out the same spin regularly. And the supermkt duopoly has had this situ for a long time.I remember when they (and prob still do)put agriculture producers against each other , at times forcing providers to sell at below cost to get a bit of cashflow. now the ever increasing house brands are another unhealthy shift in power pricing imo.

[carrom74]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/energy-stocks-surge-us-oil-tops-us70-barrel-ng-215385

Could there be an upswing on this news?

[bull....]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/energy-stocks-surge-us-oil-tops-us70-barrel-ng-215385

Could there be an upswing on this news?

2pm est trump will announce his iran statement

[hamish]

After the solid result, some decent volumes coming through in the past week or so. SP happily regained the 22c div today after shedding ex yesterday. Looking ahead, estimated 50-55 cps div across next FY, this is really increasing the attractiveness of the div yield.. Insto's increasing stake as these up as part of their Div funds...

Same store growth, commercial and aviation looks to continue short term growth trajectory. Notwithsanding the reporting views and public debate, it does appear that the retail sector is becoming more competitive through increased footprints of Gull and other smaller localised regional stations.. I am sure there was a stat around 60 stations new throughout NZ..ad that the big 4 distributed 90% of retail fuel, now this is something like 79%.

Happy to hold. Figure it'll average near this mark, might get back up towards that $8 resistance point, then might reconsider.

[bull....]

certainly good buying if you took the risk just under 7 that it would bounce back in the range , up 50c +div

[winner69]

Mark Lister (@MarkListerNZ)
18/07/18, 8:48 AM
One of the first earnings downgraded ahead of the August reporting season out this am. Z Energy revises EBITDAF guidance down 6-7%, on the back of supply chain disruptions and high petrol prices.

[bull....]

caught out by volitilty in oil price 10% down 10% up now 10% down from highs, dont see them cutting petrol prices at the pump till they make it back lol

[peat]

there are some good reasons why profit is down esp having to buy spot product but I cant help but also see this as a way to fend off further inquiries/criticism.
Wouldn't be a good time politically to be making huge increases in profit
I know I've stopped using Z since Countdowns OneCard went over to 6c/litre discount at BP. (irrelevant personal anecdote)

[percy]

there are some good reasons why profit is down esp having to buy spot product but I cant help but also see this as a way to fend off further inquiries/criticism.
Wouldn't be a good time politically to be making huge increases in profit
I know I've stopped using Z since Countdowns OneCard went over to 6c/litre discount at BP. (irrelevant personal anecdote)

Wait until to you receive a Gold Card [thanks Winnie], 10 cents off a litre at Challenge and 15 cents off a litre at NPD.
Only trouble is No.1 daughter says since I get so much a litre off, I should not mind filling her car as well.!!..lol.

[bull....]

caught out by volitilty in oil price 10% down 10% up now 10% down from highs, dont see them cutting petrol prices at the pump till they make it back lol

lol they keep getting caught out by the wild swings in oil between 66 - 70 ... will have to keep ramping petrol prices higher to make back the losses

[peat]

lol they keep getting caught out by the wild swings in oil between 66 - 70 ... will have to keep ramping petrol prices higher to make back the losses

kiwi dollar very weak as well. not good for petrol guzzlers anywhere yet alone those in the '09' .

[Joshuatree]

Part of Z's "What is Next" strategy

Z Energy's $46m power play for Flick Electric The fuel company is diversifying into electricity as it faces a ''low carbon future''. (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12113992)

[Bobdn]

I did end up buying 2400 shares of Z at $7.09 - I calculated that the dividend will pay for my scooter petrol over a year. I could have just banked the money and paid for my fuel out of that but that's not as much fun. I also have NZ Refining as well. Oil still has a huge future and with ICE innovations like Mazda's skyactivx, the internal combustion engine will still be dominant for the next 30 years at least. To celebrate my purchase I went to Z and filled up my Yamaha 150, it cost me around $16. I get around 35 km/l. I love that bike. I also bought two milky bars for $3.50.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/motoring/road-tests/96441241/mazdas-new-skyactivx-petrol-plans-to-put-the-pressure-on-electric-vehicles

$46m for Flick, is that a good price? I don't know. Flick hasn't managed to grow their customer base much at all over the last 18 months from what I can see.

[sanctus671]

$46m for Flick, is that a good price? I don't know. Flick hasn't managed to grow their customer base much at all over the last 18 months from what I can see.

Where did you get that information from?

[blackcap]

I did end up buying 2400 shares of Z at $7.09 - I calculated that the dividend will pay for my scooter petrol over a year. I could have just banked the money and paid for my fuel out of that but that's not as much fun. I also have NZ Refining as well. Oil still has a huge future and with ICE innovations like Mazda's skyactivx, the internal combustion engine will still be dominant for the next 30 years at least. To celebrate my purchase I went to Z and filled up my Yamaha 150, it cost me around $16. I get around 35 km/l. I love that bike. I also bought two milky bars for $3.50.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/motoring/road-tests/96441241/mazdas-new-skyactivx-petrol-plans-to-put-the-pressure-on-electric-vehicles

$46m for Flick, is that a good price? I don't know. Flick hasn't managed to grow their customer base much at all over the last 18 months from what I can see.

Its not about customer bases etc per se. Its all about Z transitioning from being a fossil fuel (petrol and diesel) provider to being a "clean energy provider".

[Bobdn]

Where did you get that information from?

I got it from the Electricity Authority's retail reports.

https://www.emi.ea.govt.nz/Retail/Reports/R_MST_C?_si=v|3

By the end of May 2017 Flick had 23,320 customers. One of their closest competitors, Electric Kiwi (which got into business a year after Flick), had just 11,214 customers.

By the end of August 2018 Flick had 24,353 customers. Electric Kiwi has now got 28,241 customers.

[Bobdn]

Its not about customer bases etc per se. Its all about Z transitioning from being a fossil fuel (petrol and diesel) provider to being a "clean energy provider".


Hmmm, I don't know. By the time EVs reach any significant number (let's say 10 per cent of the light vehicle fleet by 2040), 1000 km range EVs will be common place. So not a lot of EV owners will be pulling into Z service stations to get a quick charge.

PS EVs are 0.30% of the comparable light vehicle fleet now in NZ, so 10 per cent by 2040 might be pushing it. According to the Economist 2018 is the tipping point for EVs! *puts pinky finger in mouth* "Riiightttt".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGFb6CcG0DA

[blackcap]

Hmmm, I don't know. By the time EVs reach any significant number (let's say 10 per cent of the light vehicle fleet by 2040), 1000 km range EVs will be common place. So not a lot of EV owners will be pulling into Z service stations to get a quick charge.

PS EVs are 0.30% of the comparable light vehicle fleet now in NZ, so 10 per cent by 2040 might be pushing it. According to the Economist 2018 is the tipping point for EVs! *puts pinky finger in mouth* "Riiightttt".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGFb6CcG0DA

Yeah no I agree, EV's are a long way away in NZ. But tis all about the virtue signalling. They can now run ads saying they provide clean energy etc etc and position themselves in that space.

[Bobdn]

Yeah no I agree, EV's are a long way away in NZ. But tis all about the virtue signalling. They can now run ads saying they provide clean energy etc etc and position themselves in that space.

I guess you're right. It's like how BP markets itself as Beyond Petroleum. Sad! Oil, and the amazing amount of energy it unleashes, underpins our modern day prosperity.

Fortunately there's so much oil out there and we're almost 20 years away from peak oil demand! For the first time in human history oil demand reached 100m bbl a day recently :)

I regret selling my BP shares. If I had kept them; my tiny Z holding and my larger NZ Refining holding would have meant that every Boy Racer that screams past my house would have indirectly been enriching me (assuming they paid for the petrol and didn't use Gull or some other outfit).

[mcdongle]

Hmmm, I don't know. By the time EVs reach any significant number (let's say 10 per cent of the light vehicle fleet by 2040), 1000 km range EVs will be common place. So not a lot of EV owners will be pulling into Z service stations to get a quick charge.

PS EVs are 0.30% of the comparable light vehicle fleet now in NZ, so 10 per cent by 2040 might be pushing it. According to the Economist 2018 is the tipping point for EVs! *puts pinky finger in mouth* "Riiightttt".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGFb6CcG0DA

With Europe banning ICE from 2030 NZ wont be so clean and green then

[Patient Panda]

I did end up buying 2400 shares of Z at $7.09 - I calculated that the dividend will pay for my scooter petrol over a year. I could have just banked the money and paid for my fuel out of that but that's not as much fun. I also have NZ Refining as well. Oil still has a huge future and with ICE innovations like Mazda's skyactivx, the internal combustion engine will still be dominant for the next 30 years at least. To celebrate my purchase I went to Z and filled up my Yamaha 150, it cost me around $16. I get around 35 km/l. I love that bike. I also bought two milky bars for $3.50.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/motoring/road-tests/96441241/mazdas-new-skyactivx-petrol-plans-to-put-the-pressure-on-electric-vehicles

$46m for Flick, is that a good price? I don't know. Flick hasn't managed to grow their customer base much at all over the last 18 months from what I can see.


There is absolutely no way in hell ICE are going to be dominant for the next 30 years. NZ is signed up to the 2050 climate agreement. The EU is disallowing them past 2030 and almost certain NZ won’t be far behind.

[Bobdn]

With Europe banning ICE from 2030 NZ wont be so clean and green then


Yes. My guess is that the NZ Govt will ban new ICE car sales from 2040 if Labour gets a second term. This is consistent with France and the UK. Germany and the Netherlands is 2030.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_banning_fossil_fuel_vehicles

Of course, the average age of a car on NZ roads is 14. So it will be well past mid century before ICE cars disappear from our roads.

[Bobdn]

There is absolutely no way in hell ICE are going to be dominant for the next 30 years. NZ is signed up to the 2050 climate agreement. The EU is disallowing them past 2030 and almost certain NZ won’t be far behind.

yeah, 30 years. See you here in 2048 to compare notes.

[Patient Panda]

Of course, the average age of a car on NZ roads is 14. So it will be well past mid century before ICE cars disappear from our roads.

that won’t be the case when you can have a driverless uber at the push of a button for a trifling sum. Theres also going to be much more stringent regulations on emissions and pollution regardless of which party is in power.

[Bobdn]

that won’t be the case when you can have a driverless uber at the push of a button for a trifling sum. Theres also going to be much more stringent regulations on emissions and pollution regardless of which party is in power.


It will be just like the Jetsons!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FyinD6ZDqeg

[bull....]

boycott petrol station day

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12137376

better watch out they might put the price up next day to make back the profit

[peat]

boycott petrol station day

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12137376

better watch out they might put the price up next day to make back the profit

strikes me as a bit like.........

10023

[Grimy]

So. Don't fill up on that day. But if you need fuel fill up the day before, or after...……..And that alters how much fuel (and profit) is used in that week, or month how?

[Joshuatree]

Start sharing rides, most cars have only 1 person in them.An uber like app with a self regulating feedback rating system would solve many problems , traffic jams , costs, socialising(meet your local community) etc even if used a few times in a week.So obvious , people need to get over themselves and share a little and save time money and pollution until EV's drop in price. An Uber like app with GPS shows you exactly how close other rides or people wanting rides are so you pick the one that suits.

[100101]

Haven bought from Z since before the name was change. And no plans so to do in the future.

[macduffy]

Poor old Z!

Cops all the flak as the only listed oil co in NZ!

:ohmy:

[steveb]

Haven bought from Z since before the name was change. And no plans so to do in the future.
You can't just say that without elaborating,I'm hanging out here for the reasons!

If I had some shares in Z I would be contemplating a sell!!!

[cyclist]

boycott petrol station day

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12137376

better watch out they might put the price up next day to make back the profit

The amusing part is that a reasonable portion of recent increases is extra local and national govt taxes. These things do frustrate me though. The equivalent of an adult tantrum, and just as ineffective.

[Joshuatree]

Yes , oil is up 50% plus in 1 year. Why on earth would one target a NZ company where many NZ shareholders(including me) gain from and a large portion of profits stay in NZ. Try BP or Mobil if you must!. Even better find ways to reduce your fuel usage and pollution, including ride share, EV and hybrid, planning less trips to do more ,etc.

No surprises Donald trump has been meddling here as well with 2 million barrels of oil a day removed from the mkt due to Iran sanctions. USA is self sufficient in oil now i believe, funny that ehh:).

[Bobdn]

I only have a small investment in Z but I expect it to get smaller by the day.

https://www.whaleoil.co.nz/2018/10/government-concerned-about-petrol-prices/

[Joshuatree]

Absolute garbage from an extreme biased one sided mercenary sump oil site . There is one truly unbiased place to go for news that does not have any agenda .
National radio NZ is the only place you will get factual, accurate info with qualified experienced Interviewers
who are on a salary and not being paid? to spin bull dust. But depends on your own bias i guess.

[bull....]

ive said many times on this thread the govt doesnt care if petrol goes up its more revenue for them , z dont care there margins are still going up lol the only ones who care are us , but no bodies listening.

good p/r by jacinda , she good at showing she's caring

[Joshuatree]

From National Radio below
Bring back carless days i reckon , if people won't start changing their driving habits, car sharing, buying hybrids, EV.s ,less trips etc. The latest global warming news is very alarming, time for people to pull finger and save money too. No brainer.

Ardern speeds up law change to tackle soaring petrol prices (https://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/368200/ardern-speeds-up-law-change-to-tackle-soaring-petrol-prices)

NZ pays highest pre-tax petrol price in OECD - Ardern (https://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political/368246/nz-pays-highest-pre-tax-petrol-price-in-oecd-ardern)

[Bobdn]

Interesting perspective here too:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/107693534/if-the-government-is-so-certain-motorists-are-being-fleeced-what-is-it-waiting-for

The author Hamish Rutherford notes:

"Leaving aside whether the petrol companies are making too much profit, the best way to get Kiwis to drive less is by ensuring they pay more.
But on Monday, Ardern's "moral stance" was that Kiwis are paying too much to do the very thing she surely believes threatens the planet."

[Marilyn Munroe]

My reaction to the Coalition Governments "were gunna get tough on oil companies" statement was to assume they had read the tag line on Snoopy's posts and put it into practice.

'Management top tip: Share the responsibility. Change your name by deed-poll to "Someone Else"'

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[Joshuatree]

Every govt talks tough about petrol prices, Judith Collins did it more than once but they really cant do much. Im a bit disappointed in our leader on this one. I agree with Hamish, you have to hurt folks in the back pocket and they will go through their 5 stages of mourning (Denial,Anger,Bargaining, Depression Acceptance and at the other end become responsive and action change for change we must with this planet heating up.

This is a golden opp to educate and incentivise kiwis to start conserving/ changing/ switching. To value fuel and not treat it like water( valuing/conserving water is coming fast too). i hope the Greens and our govt go hard and jump on to this opportunity , this catalyst for change.

[macduffy]

Unfortunately, the govt is instead taking the "easy" option of bashing the oil companies - conveniently overlooking the increases recently in the price of oil and the weakened NZD, into the bargain.

[steveb]

this is probably not the correct thread to have a political discourse on,however I will get my 2 cents worth.

How a leader of govt. can stand there and say they don't know why petrol prices have gone up is totally unrealistic.They have so many hangers on and civil servants to advise them.When Jo-public knows the answer and nobody in govt.has a clue,it's time to dump the govt.!

[blackcap]

this is probably not the correct thread to have a political discourse on,however I will get my 2 cents worth.

How a leader of govt. can stand there and say they don't know why petrol prices have gone up is totally unrealistic.They have so many hangers on and civil servants to advise them.When Jo-public knows the answer and nobody in govt.has a clue,it's time to dump the govt.!

Totally agree. Cindy's Kindy is looking less competent by the day. You nailed it when you said the populous knows but they don't. Total ineptness.

[Rep]

Every govt talks tough about petrol prices, Judith Collins did it more than once but they really cant do much. Im a bit disappointed in our leader on this one. I agree with Hamish, you have to hurt folks in the back pocket and they will go through their 5 stages of mourning (Denial,Anger,Bargaining, Depression Acceptance and at the other end become responsive and action change for change we must with this planet heating up.

This is a golden opp to educate and incentivise kiwis to start conserving/ changing/ switching. To value fuel and not treat it like water( valuing/conserving water is coming fast too). i hope the Greens and our govt go hard and jump on to this opportunity , this catalyst for change.

JT - yes there is a real good opportunity to educate and incentivise the public. The flip side is that petrol taxes are very regressive on low income household particularly where the proportion of income spent on fuel taxes, excise duties and ACC fees is relatively higher compared to middle and high income households for a number of reasons - they tend to travel longer distances to work as housing is relatively cheaper away from the city centre and use more fuel and their incomes are lower. Also many of these household have bread winners working long hours that aren't served well by public transport and are forced to drive.

I do agree that higher fuel prices do see changes to patronage of public transport but often the hardest hit by fuel taxes are not those that who really have choices readily available to them. And it would take a lot of price signalling for me to switch from my second hand petrol SUV to a similar sized EV SUV - much more than most households will cope with.

[Bjauck]

Yes , oil is up 50% plus in 1 year. Why on earth would one target a NZ company where many NZ shareholders(including me) gain from and a large portion of profits stay in NZ. Try BP or Mobil if you must!. Even better find ways to reduce your fuel usage and pollution, including ride share, EV and hybrid, planning less trips to do more ,etc.

No surprises Donald trump has been meddling here as well with 2 million barrels of oil a day removed from the mkt due to Iran sanctions. USA is self sufficient in oil now i believe, funny that ehh:).

NZ is a small market a long distance from suppliers. Are they factoring that into international comparisons?

If NZ oil and petrol retailing were so profitable why did Shell sell up to Z? In the last 10 years margins have recovered to make it a sector worth investing in...so the government consequently wants to whack the sector on the head again. Go figure! Are they trying to find a scapegoat to divert attention from their hike in fuel taxes?

Is Z going to be another Telecom? When the company changes from foreign ownership to one with a lot of small Kiwi shareholders, the government (and ComCom) decide to come down hard and to make it less profitable. It makes me think that it's little wonder that the NZ share market is so tiny for an OECD nation of our size.

[Beagle]

Every govt talks tough about petrol prices, Judith Collins did it more than once but they really cant do much. Im a bit disappointed in our leader on this one. I agree with Hamish, you have to hurt folks in the back pocket and they will go through their 5 stages of mourning (Denial,Anger,Bargaining, Depression Acceptance and at the other end become responsive and action change for change we must with this planet heating up.

This is a golden opp to educate and incentivise kiwis to start conserving/ changing/ switching. To value fuel and not treat it like water( valuing/conserving water is coming fast too). i hope the Greens and our govt go hard and jump on to this opportunity , this catalyst for change.

The Government with their unexpected $5.5b surplus could and should do a LOT more to incentivize electric vehicle uptake but I suppose there's working group #149 looking into that due to report back in a couple of years time.

On the subject of Z they are consistently the main offender in the surrounding suburbs where I live in having the most expensive fuel. This consistency is remarkable in its durability and has been going on for years. The thrust of their marketing about doing good under the hood and appealing to the public's sense of nationalist pride that they're a Kiwi company looking after Kiwi's or words to that effect is about as disingenuous as advertising ever gets in my opinion.

[horus1]

The margins have expanded by double. Z energy is profiteering and will get hit by the CC

[bull....]

The margins have expanded by double. Z energy is profiteering and will get hit by the CC

no way its all smoke and mirrors by the govt , has been for decades nothing changes only the faces

[Jaa]

NZ is a small market a long distance from suppliers. Are they factoring that into international comparisons?

Whangarei isn't that far.

Drive a smaller, more fuel efficient vehicle and not a SUV. No need for an electric car.

[Bjauck]

...
On the subject of Z they are consistently the main offender in the surrounding suburbs where I live in having the most expensive fuel. This consistency is remarkable in its durability and has been going on for years. The thrust of their marketing about doing good under the hood and appealing to the public's sense of nationalist pride that they're a Kiwi company looking after Kiwi's or words to that effect is about as disingenuous as advertising ever gets in my opinion.

The same loaf of bread costs more in my local Countdown than in the local Pak 'n Save. The dairy down the road charges more than another dairy in the next block.

If the Z stations consistently charge more than others in the surrounding 'burbs - I wonder how do they stay in business? Perhaps they have the best ancillary services, shop etc? Good locations with expensive lease costs? I doubt it is just because of blind patriotism....but if that helps, NZ companies need all the help they can get because I think we seem to retain precious few in NZ hands.

Disc: Own ZEL bonds

[Joshuatree]

J

I do agree that higher fuel prices do see changes to patronage of public transport but often the hardest hit by fuel taxes are not those that who really have choices readily available to them. And it would take a lot of price signalling for me to switch from my second hand petrol SUV to a similar sized EV SUV - much more than most households will cope with.

This is the normal persons reaction i think, there is a huge resistance to change whether it be sharing a ride sometimes or planning one trip instead of many,or switching to more efficient vehicles etc. I take it you havn't considered your own carbon footprint here Rep or totally disbelieve global warming(latest update out below which is pretty grim)?. There seems to be a total disconnect , block out of the inconvenient truth that we are polluting our world as we drive and that we must change a lifetime habit.

Im interested in how we can overcome this denial/ refusal about what is happening and the fact changing our lifetime behaviours will make a difference and set examples for others to have that lightbulb moment. A bit like our home is our castle/ domain and that is sacred; with our vehicles too, something that empowers us or just habit and convienience and a bit of personal control?

It would take something more then a lot of price switching for you/us to change. What could that be? something more powerful, more cathartic then having to put say $20 extra in the tank. Its like we cant complete the picture because some of the numbers are missing, but they actually are right there staring us in the face.

Why aren't we taking responsibility?

We accepted carless days some time ago.

Paris agreement goal still achievable, but requires unprecedented change - report (https://www.radionz.co.nz/news/world/368189/paris-agreement-goal-still-achievable-but-requires-unprecedented-change-report)

[Bobdn]

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2018/10/profiteering-jacinda-ardern-doubles-down-on-fuel-industry-crusade.html

The PM is quoted as saying there is profiteering! Sadly, the yield I get from my z shares is the lowest out of all my investments (apart from SUM). So if there is profiteering going on, I'm missing my cut:)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Profiteering_(business)

[Bjauck]

...
We accepted carless days some time ago.
...I agree - Like GST, fuel tax is another regressive tax hitting the poor disproportionately.

Didn't car less days favour multi-car families. Poorer families with one car suffered disproportionately. Auckland is built around the private car. Poorer families tend to be in rental accommodation in far flung suburbs. They may also have to work in shifts and have to move from job to job and house to house. Trying to organise and re-organise shared transport or public transport would be difficult. There have been generations of inaction in establishing a decent public transport network. Instead we rely on imported fuel and imported cars.

I agree we should phase out our reliance on fossil fuels but there needs to be an affordable alternative.

[macduffy]

[QUOTE]We accepted carless days some time ago.
[QUOTE]

I don't know about that word "accepted".

As I recall, the country couldn't afford to pay for the fuel without some form of rationing! A TINA situation.

[Rep]

This is the normal persons reaction i think, there is a huge resistance to change whether it be sharing a ride sometimes or planning one trip instead of many,or switching to more efficient vehicles etc. I take it you havn't considered your own carbon footprint here Rep or totally disbelieve global warming(latest update out below which is pretty grim)?. There seems to be a total disconnect , block out of the inconvenient truth that we are polluting our world as we drive and that we must change a lifetime habit.

Im interested in how we can overcome this denial/ refusal about what is happening and the fact changing our lifetime behaviours will make a difference and set examples for others to have that lightbulb moment. A bit like our home is our castle/ domain and that is sacred; with our vehicles too, something that empowers us or just habit and convienience and a bit of personal control?

It would take something more then a lot of price switching for you/us to change. What could that be? something more powerful, more cathartic then having to put say $20 extra in the tank. Its like we cant complete the picture because some of the numbers are missing, but they actually are right there staring us in the face.

Why aren't we taking responsibility?

We accepted carless days some time ago.

Paris agreement goal still achievable, but requires unprecedented change - report (https://www.radionz.co.nz/news/world/368189/paris-agreement-goal-still-achievable-but-requires-unprecedented-change-report)

JT - I’m indicating you can appeal to hearts and minds but price signals change behaviour. The issue is that the economics of changing out of my petrol SUV to an equivalent EV vehicle are astonishingly difficult to justify against all the other considerations I have in the hierarchy. Don’t get me wrong I don’t dispute climate change and no one generally wants to ruin the planet but you ask most folk about what matters and it’s back to Maslow - housing, food, security, rest.

I don’t dispute the matters at hand but for the economic equation for me to be compelling then it would create price signals and economics that would hit the poorest persons of our community the hardest. You can’t expect the poorest to be burdened with the greatest proportional toll or you will see that missing million at the ballot box.

[Beagle]

The same loaf of bread costs more in my local Countdown than in the local Pak 'n Save. The dairy down the road charges more than another dairy in the next block.

If the Z stations consistently charge more than others in the surrounding 'burbs - I wonder how do they stay in business? Perhaps they have the best ancillary services, shop etc? Good locations with expensive lease costs? I doubt it is just because of blind patriotism....but if that helps, NZ companies need all the help they can get because I think we seem to retain precious few in NZ hands.

Disc: Own ZEL bonds

The reasons are simple, one is called market dominance. The Commerce commission should never have allowed the merger of Caltex and Z, Caltex is owned by Z for those that don't know. They dominate certain geographic area's and its simply not worth driving further to get cheaper gas for many customers.

Creative marketing is another reason, doing good in the hood, supporting communities and supporting a Kiwi owned company all sound good.

Thirdly their shops are generally pretty good, but customers are paying for that.

Another reason is their tie up's with incentive programs like Flybuys and supermarket discount vouchers, they're arguably the best operator when it comes to incentives.

They don't sell 98 Octane fuel so are never going to be on my radar as my vehicle needs that, (so I really don't care much other than their patriotic marketing is arguably the most disingenuous of the lot so I find it irksome when I have to watch it on telly) but I can't help noticing that their fuel price signs are consistently the most expensive of the surrounding burbs where I live. Interestingly its not just my bias either, I was discussing this with one of my best mates this morning who lives in a completely different part of Auckland and I asked who is the worst offender, BP, Mobil or Z in the burbs around where he lives.

Plain and simple, in my opinion the Commerce Commission got the Z and Caltex merger badly wrong and this has significantly reduced fuel competition.

On another related subject Cindy wonders why the petrol companies are fleecing us and they most certainly are able aided and abetted by Labours grossly excessive new fuel taxes...her comments are also morally repugnant because its her Government that has just allowed additional petrol taxes for Auckland motorists of a whopping 15 cents per litre...while they're running a 5.5 billion dollar surplus !

[Bjauck]

I have an AA card which I use at the local Caltex...makes my fuel cheaper than elsewhere. So certainly good marketing and business. The AA/Countdown card is a good one too,imo.

I don’t know of many areas in Auckland where Z/Caltex are so dominant that you cannot easily find during your weekly routine a different fuel company to use. (More rural areas would be a different matter.) I think fuel fuel taxes are needed to pay for Auckland roads to cope with its expanding size. Previous governments and councils could have ensured that public transport and roading/infrastructure kept up with Auckland immigration by raising finance for works by other means. However it was left to become an urgent situation...

[Rep]

I have an AA card which I use at the local Caltex...makes my fuel cheaper than elsewhere. So certainly good marketing and business. The AA/Countdown card is a good one too,imo.

I don’t know of many areas in Auckland where Z/Caltex are so dominant that you cannot easily find during your weekly routine a different fuel company to use. (More rural areas would be a different matter.) I think fuel fuel taxes are needed to pay for Auckland roads to cope with its expanding size. Previous governments and councils could have ensured that public transport and roading/infrastructure kept up with Auckland immigration by raising finance for works by other means. However it was left to become an urgent situation...

My observation in Auckland is that we have a Gull nearby so most of the Servos are matching the pump price - add the 6c (and regular 10c on Smiles Day) discount for Mobil Smiles or the 6c off the New World/Z pricing and it's markedly cheaper due to competitive pressure. Same would probably apply for BP with AA rewards too.

BTW I have used 95RON and 98RON ULP in the past and we have done enough real world testing with similar routes, loads, traffic conditions and average speeds on open road driving vs 91RON ULP to indicate that there is a small but measurable differential in fuel economy but insufficient to cover the differential in per litre pricing. When it comes to urban driving, the differential in economy is non-existent between 91/95/98 RON so my observation is if your car can take 91 RON use it noting that lots of Euros and cars with small displacement forced induction (super/turbocharged) engines probably need to use 95 RON minimum. I also noted when supply was an issue with the Marsden/Wiri pipeline, 95/98 outages were more common than 91.

However, depreciation remains the most significant real world running cost esp for a new car not fuel or even the rising cost of repairs and insurance (I can also see that some hi-spec new cars with sensors incorporated into windscreens for adaptive cruise, AEB, heads up and other driver aids are going to end up with no longer having no excess for windscreen replacement)

[Bjauck]

True especially for those with average or below average travelling distance the fixed and partially fixed costs and are the big chunk of owning a car. Even if you drive the car for just a second on a public street each year, you have insurance, government charges, annual service (oil and fluid changes at least) and then depreciation (15% on declining value?)

[Beagle]

My observation in Auckland is that we have a Gull nearby so most of the Servos are matching the pump price - add the 6c (and regular 10c on Smiles Day) discount for Mobil Smiles or the 6c off the New World/Z pricing and it's markedly cheaper due to competitive pressure. Same would probably apply for BP with AA rewards too.

BTW I have used 95RON and 98RON ULP in the past and we have done enough real world testing with similar routes, loads, traffic conditions and average speeds on open road driving vs 91RON ULP to indicate that there is a small but measurable differential in fuel economy but insufficient to cover the differential in per litre pricing. When it comes to urban driving, the differential in economy is non-existent between 91/95/98 RON so my observation is if your car can take 91 RON use it noting that lots of Euros and cars with small displacement forced induction (super/turbocharged) engines probably need to use 95 RON minimum. I also noted when supply was an issue with the Marsden/Wiri pipeline, 95/98 outages were more common than 91.

However, depreciation remains the most significant real world running cost esp for a new car not fuel or even the rising cost of repairs and insurance (I can also see that some hi-spec new cars with sensors incorporated into windscreens for adaptive cruise, AEB, heads up and other driver aids are going to end up with no longer having no excess for windscreen replacement)

Something that's especially notable with high end Euro cars where the depreciation rate and quantum thereof can be a real eye opener. Some car engines need 98 Octane, a point that seems lost on Z. I think real world depreciation rates are ~ 30% in the first year and ~ 10% per annum every year thereafter. For the life of me I can't understand why some people replace their cars every year.

One thing that's not widely understood with Gull's fuel is that they use up to 10% ethanol in their mix. Ethanol has 33% less energy content than normal fuel so in effect their fuel contains 3.3% less energy. To do a given amount of work your vehicle will accordingly use 3.3% more fuel, (something I have proved us9ing my vehicle running on their force 10 98 Octane fuel) if run on Gull so Gull's fuel has to be cheaper by 3.3% than the other stations (after their incentive scheme's) to make it worthwhile. Even then one thing to consider if you are a person that enjoys the potential of their cars engine to its fullest from time to time is that full throttle acceleration will be blunted by 3.3%.

[Joshuatree]

National raised fuel tax SIX times lol. Your comments are morally inaccurate. Go to the political threads and rave there.

Plain and simple we have a very competitive fuel mkt out there.

Govt surplus is very prudent, who knows whats around the corner to swallow it up

"Govt confident it has the headroom to deal with economic shocks"saving up foe a rainy day I trust this govt to steer us through uncertain uncharted global waters ahead of us.

[Bjauck]

....

Govt surplus is very prudent, who knows whats around the corner to swallow it up

"Govt confident it has the headroom to deal with economic shocks"saving up foe a rainy day I trust this govt to steer us through uncertain uncharted global waters ahead of us.
They would be damned if they spent the surplus and they are damned if they don’t! If you are against someone then often it seems that they just can do no good.

[hogie]

National raised fuel tax SIX times lol. Your comments are morally inaccurate. Go to the political threads and rave there.

I'm not sure how this comment is relevant? Surely since the previous government allegedly raised petrol tax SIX times that would mean that this government should be lowering the tax and not increasing it further?

I'm just glad that my financial position is such that fuel prices don't really matter ... but I am sad for those who are struggling to make ends meet as the price of everything is beginning to increase very quickly ...

[Beagle]

National raised fuel tax SIX times lol. Your comments are morally inaccurate. Go to the political threads and rave there.

Plain and simple we have a very competitive fuel mkt out there.

Govt surplus is very prudent, who knows whats around the corner to swallow it up

"Govt confident it has the headroom to deal with economic shocks"saving up foe a rainy day I trust this govt to steer us through uncertain uncharted global waters ahead of us.

Six times in 9 years = every 18 months. Labour, (after promising no new taxes in their first term) has raised fuel excise, (which Cindy tries to tell us is not a tax) and lumped Aucklanders with a 11.5 cents per liter tax, a total of 15 cents per liter in less than a year of being in office, and then she has the audacity to cry foul and tell us its the fuel companies that are fleecing us ! Come on JT...surely even you can see this is outrageous.

Anyway...back to Z...this good in the hood is very VERY cunning marketing http://z.co.nz/about-z/how-we-invest-in-our-neighbourhoods/good-in-the-hood/Encourages people to think that by supporting Z they're supporting community groups in their own area to the tune of $5K per annum per gas station. Little do they realize each service station might be skimming many times the multiple of that amount through higher margins but the customer feels good and they get their fly buys points. Cunning !

[Marilyn Munroe]

The Commerce commission should never have allowed the merger of Caltex and Z,

The Commerce Commission have a history of doing little more than drinking tea and nibbling biscuits where petrol retailing is concerned.

When the earlier Caltex takeover of Fletcher owned Challenge Petroleum was approved by the Commission they failed to make divesting Challenges ocean terminals a condition of approval.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[Joshuatree]

6 times man oh man fact.
Sorry but Aucklanders can pay for there own infrastructure probs that National neglected, blame them.

Question ,are the discounts factored into gas stations petrol prices, they offer good savings for Zcard and Mobil smiles card for two?.

[Beagle]

6 times man oh man fact.
Sorry but Aucklanders can pay for there own infrastructure probs that National neglected, blame them.

Question ,are the discounts factored into gas stations petrol prices, they offer good savings for Zcard and Mobil smiles card for two?.

I looked up the facts. In December 2008 the total fuel excise levy was 52.57 cents per liter (cpl) + GST. At the conclusion of National's 9 year term it was 66.48 cpl a total increase over 9 years of 13.91 cpl. Over that nine year timeframe according to the Reserve bank inflation calculator if fuel had matched the price of inflation the inflation adjusted real price benchmark for excise should have been 57.51 cps at the conclusion of National's 9 year term so natural inflation represented 5 cpl of that increase and the increase in real terms was just on 9 cpl over nine years.

To to make this comparison really simple National's real rate of fuel excise increase amounted to just 1 cpl extra per year in real inflation adjusted terms.

About 80% of fuel excise is supposed to go direct to the National land transport management fund to fund roads across all of N.Z. including Auckland, who's 1.5m motorists pay a substantial part of the annual amount that fund gets.

In 9 months Labour have imposed 50% more petrol levies and costs (13.5 cpl + GST) (despite the promise of no new taxes) on Aucklanders than National have done in inflation adjusted terms in the previous 9 years yet Cindy has the audacity to tell us that the fuel companies are fleecing us !

Further, their annual proposed fuel excise levy increases at 3.5 cpl for the next two years are at 3 times the annual rate National was putting them up.
Fuel excise and the regional fuel tax, inclusive of GST thereon now accounts for a whopping 91.98 cents per liter for Aucklanders.

Even if you leave the debate about regional fuel levies out of this the fact remains that Labour are increasing national fuel excise levies, (despite promising no new taxes in their first term) at three times the annual rate National did and they think this is okay because Cindy told us that fuel excise increases is not a tax !
How gullible does she think the average Kiwi is ?

Its not just Z rorting their customers I tell ya ! There's a LOT of heat over this petrol price thing and if Labour ignore it they do so at their peril.

[Joshuatree]

It is nationals latest attack issue(spread the word around ,attack), spin to divert from bridges faltering leadership issue, id agree with that. Attention! the latest attack /diversion tactic , blame labour for the petrol increases, alert attack mutt beagle.

[Beagle]

Its hard debating against the REAL FACTS isn't it !

[Bjauck]

The Commerce Commission have a history of doing little more than drinking tea and nibbling biscuits where petrol retailing is concerned.

When the earlier Caltex takeover of Fletcher owned Challenge Petroleum was approved by the Commission they failed to make divesting Challenges ocean terminals a condition of approval.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn ComCom have an inconsistent record!

[Bjauck]

...Its not just Z rorting their customers I tell ya ! There's a LOT of heat over this petrol price thing and if Labour ignore it they do so at their peril.
It does seem like Labour is diverting attention from the excise increase - necessary though raising capital may be to cover the postponed investment in Auckland transport needs.

Tbh I have not been following the situation as closely as I should have. However wasn't there concern by some that the oil companies were operating as a cartel during the previous government? Wasn't the can just kicked down the road for someone else to deal with?

It does sound a wee bit like the witch hunt against Telecom and Chorus. That then may have resulted in reduced investment and a squeeze on contractors ( with consequences emerging now in the form of labour exploitation.)

Big Oil and Big Telcoms are easy targets for whom the general NZ public don't have a reserve of compassion.

[Bobdn]

The graphic in this article is revealing. I'm sure most have already seen it but I've just caught up with it. Out of $2.45 for a litre of 91, $1.177 is for taxes, GST, and the emissions trading scheme. Just 39.9 cents is for retailer overheads and profits. That doesn't seem like the industry is "profiteering". Looks like the retailers, slinging pies and pumping gas, are getting crumbs. The Government on the other hand seems to be doing very nicely.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12140094

Good on the Herald for producing such a good graphic. Show that to the average punter and the Government kind of has some explaining to do.

Bjauck, you are right. Easy target. Yet professions like dentists charge an absolute fortune but are always under the radar.

PS when I wrote "slinging pies and pumping gas". I was thinking of the Hal David lyric "parking cars and pumping gas" from "Do you know the way to San Jose"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnzTgUc5ycc

[Joshuatree]

Its hard debating against the REAL FACTS isn't it !

Correct atp national have increased petrol excise tax WAY more (n their last 3 terms )and not done the infrastructure spend that would have avoided the current bottleneck in Auckland etc. check again after labour have been info 3 terms and get back to me.

.

Z Card - the card for Kiwi businesses



Get a discount of 6 cents per litre at Z service stations and 11.5 cents per litre at Z truck stops.

[Joshuatree]

Z is the only fuel company where you can fuel your Air New Zealand Airpoints Dollar™ balance every time you fill up! Then, spend your Airpoints Dollars on flights, special gifts and travel benefits. great point of difference!

Z also does flybys, great marketing!

[blackcap]

Z is the only fuel company where you can fuel your Air New Zealand Airpoints Dollar™ balance every time you fill up! Then, spend your Airpoints Dollars on flights, special gifts and travel benefits. great point of difference!

Z also does flybys, great marketing!

It's good marketing indeed, because the points your receive and the value of them is pretty much nothing. A huge waste of time. But people do get sucked in by these kind of things so all power to Z.

[Joshuatree]

And of course the discounts offered on new world and paknsave grocery dockets its a win /win for all of those that need to watch their dollars.

[Joshuatree]

Targeting dividend payout ratio of 90-100% of underlying free
cash flow, i.e. 50-55 cents per share at midpoint of guidance

[dreamcatcher]

Petrol companies offer between 10c - 18c discount per L using monthly accounts for certain groups like nzmca (nz motorhome & caravan association) which suggest prices are loaded to cover.

Buy a hybrid which charge themselves & save heaps.

[Bjauck]

Targeting dividend payout ratio of 90-100% of underlying free
cash flow, i.e. 50-55 cents per share at midpoint of guidance





To boot - A NZ company which is paying interest to NZ bond holders and dividends to NZ shareholders and KiwiSaver schemes.

From my point of view, It would be great if the discount scheme cards could be loaded on to paywave so that one wave of the phone could pay for the petrol and account for the discount!

[Joshuatree]

Yeah quick and efficient. Meanwhile the times are slowly but surely a changin. No we are not there yet:) but we will be as peoples habits are adapted.

$1b Auckland park 'n ride plan (https://www.stuff.co.nz/auckland/107775894/auckland-park-and-rides-the-1-billion-deal)

[sanctus671]

Share price continuing to take a beating today. What's everyone's thoughts on where things are at right now?

[Muppett]

Share price continuing to take a beating today. What's everyone's thoughts on where things are at right now?

15 down days out of the last 20.
Expect more to come.
And then when it goes ex dividend another 50 cent drop which might not recover for awhile?

[Joshuatree]

S

One thing that's not widely understood with Gull's fuel is that they use up to 10% ethanol in their mix. Ethanol has 33% less energy content than normal fuel so in effect their fuel contains 3.3% less energy. To do a given amount of work your vehicle will accordingly use 3.3% more fuel, (something I have proved us9ing my vehicle running on their force 10 98 Octane fuel) if run on Gull so Gull's fuel has to be cheaper by 3.3% than the other stations (after their incentive scheme's) to make it worthwhile. Even then one thing to consider if you are a person that enjoys the potential of their cars engine to its fullest from time to time is that full throttle acceleration will be blunted by 3.3%.

Thats a very important point , thanks. gull is not the white knight that many think.
From Wikipedia


"Octane ratings are not indicators of the energy content of fuels. (See Effects (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Octane_rating#Effects) below and Heat of combustion (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_of_combustion)). They are only a measure of the fuel's tendency to burn in a controlled manner, rather than exploding in an uncontrolled manner.[3] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Octane_rating#cite_note-3) Where the octane number is raised by blending in ethanol, energy content per volume is reduced. Ethanol BTUs (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_thermal_unit) can be compared with gasoline BTUs in heat of combustion tables."

[theace]

Share price continuing to take a beating today. What's everyone's thoughts on where things are at right now?

I picked up a few @6.49 ... case of catching falling knives, but "think" they'll be around for a while yet, and with divis being paid.

[Beagle]

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-drive/culture/commentary/the-problem-with-ethanol-in-gasoline/article29103634/

Other issues with ethanol as well especially with older cars.
Once a year I put a load of their Force 98 in my Chrysler because it bonds with any moisture in the tank and helps eliminate that and then I'm back to Mobil 98 Octane. BP Ultimate 98 is heinously overpriced in my opinion and Z are stupid not to sell 98 Octane because there's a lot of American and Euro cars that require it.

Z are under the pump because they will soon be forced into full disclosure of their margins and I think despite the figure they produce their margins are the most excessive. They seem happy to trade losing market share to maintain very high margins. Not sure how long that strategy is sustainable and with electric cars coming I see Z as having ongoing headwinds.

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12145550

Z under the pump even more today. Chart looks really UGLY. Mr Market appears to be saying that Z's previous claims of modest margins are about to be exposed by legislative compulsion. Really shameful that they wouldn't fully cooperate with Com Com under previous investigation and that legislative change is required to compel cooperation. What have they been lying about and hiding ?

They're certainly not the only ones exhibiting predatory pricing behavior. BP N.Z. Ltd have enjoyed some really outrageous profit increases in recent years all on the back of the poor beleaguered motorist.

[Joshuatree]

Thats a very important point , thanks. gull is not the white knight that many think.
From Wikipedia


"Octane ratings are not indicators of the energy content of fuels. (See Effects (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Octane_rating#Effects) below and Heat of combustion (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_of_combustion)). They are only a measure of the fuel's tendency to burn in a controlled manner, rather than exploding in an uncontrolled manner.[3] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Octane_rating#cite_note-3) Where the octane number is raised by blending in ethanol, energy content per volume is reduced. Ethanol BTUs (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_thermal_unit) can be compared with gasoline BTUs in heat of combustion tables."

But i will keep buying Gull ,the reason being the ethanol is cleaner burning and less polluting.

Crude and brent oil down 7% plus in a month and gasoline 12% so i expect pump prices to drop .Nymex USA futures contracts

[Beagle]

But i will keep buying Gull ,the reason being the ethanol is cleaner burning and less polluting.

Crude and brent oil down 7% plus in a month and gasoline 12% so i expect pump prices to drop .Nymex USA futures contracts

Just make sure your vehicle is compatible with E10 fuel otherwise you'll be shooting yourself in the foot which is no good seeing as the best way to stop pollution is to walk :p