ZEL - Z Energy.

[see weed]

Slowly becoming crunch time in the takeover bid. This bid going ahead or another suitor?
Not to worry, if all fails, this could be a good div paying stock. Monday 11/10/21 should be another update. No other suitor as far as I know. We should forget about Ampol and their poxy offer and look forward to the next div.:)

[Poet]

Off 4c today on volume of 2m
Leaky ship?

[winner69]

Long lunch and champagne flowing at Shed 5 ….Z execs local

[Louloubell]

As long as they don't pay the bill with our divvies 🤣

[Balance]

NZ Herald's stock take :

"Z Energy shareholders will soon find out whether Ampol is prepared to up the ante for the fuel supplier.

In August, Z Energy received a non-binding indicative offer from the Aussie retail fuels company at $3.78 a share.

Late last month, Z Energy advised that the original four-week exclusivity period with Ampol had been extended by a further two weeks, "to enable outstanding matters to be addressed" and to determine whether key terms can be agreed.

"There is no certainty that discussions between Z and Ampol will result in any agreement on a transaction," Z Energy said at the time.

Now, Z Energy expects to provide an update to the market on or before Monday.

The two-week extension suggests behind-the-scenes haggling, and a revised offer price of somewhere north of $4.00 a share is seen in the market as being more realistic.

The conversion of the Refining NZ facility at Marsden Point from a refinery to a terminal - expected to take place in the first half of next year - is understood to have made Z Energy a far more attractive prospect, hence Ampol's interest.

"The market will be looking for a better price," said Mark Lister, head of private wealth research at Craigs Investment Partners.

"My suspicion is that many market participants will view this bid as being a little bit opportunistic, and would like to extract a bit more out of the acquirer."

"There might be a bit more water to go under the bridge on this in terms of negotiations," Lister said. "But from what we see so far, it is far from a knockout blow and I suspect this one will drag on for a bit."

But even at $4.00 a share, Z Energy is still 50 per cent down from its 2016 high of just over $8.

"For long-suffering Z shareholders - who have endured a pretty ugly ride in terms of returns - they would not feel great about a $4.00 bid," Lister said.

The industry's outlook is clouded by the eventual replacement of petrol driven cars by electric vehicles.

"While electric cars are where things are headed, the timeframe for that is debatable," Lister said. "Many would suggest that petrol - and ways to fuel them - will exist for a while yet."

Z Energy comprises some of the former assets of Shell New Zealand and Chevron New Zealand."

[McPussPuss]

Anybody have a sub to the Australian?

"AMPOL eyes NZ service station IPO" published 1 hour ago.

[winner69]

AFR says - It’s down to the short strokes at Ampol and Kiwi counterpart Z Energy, who spent the weekend in back and forth talks to try to iron out a few minor sticking points.

the champagne at Shed5 Friday no doubt celebrating the ‘in principle agreement, while back room guts cross the t’s and dot the i’s

[bull....]

Anybody have a sub to the Australian?

"AMPOL eyes NZ service station IPO" published 1 hour ago.

its in relation to them ipo of nz assetts if the z takeover goes ahead. i think z were trying to get them to do this option as part of negoiations

[Grimy]

Should be some announcement today, being the deadline for one.
But I doubt there will be anything too definitive yet. Would like to be wrong though.
I'm a long time holder and not that fussed on selling.

[Sideshow Bob]

Z Energy Board unanimously recommends Scheme of Arrangement - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/380676)

Z Energy Limited (NZX/ASX: ZEL) (“Z”) has entered into a binding Scheme Implementation Agreement with Ampol Limited (ASX: ALD) (“Ampol”) under which it is proposed that Ampol acquire all the shares of Z by means of a Scheme of Arrangement (“the Scheme”).

Highlights
• Under the Scheme, Z shareholders would receive a cash offer price of NZ$3.78 per share and will also receive the first NZ$0.05 per share of the interim FY22 dividend without adjusting the cash offer price, resulting in overall value to Z shareholders of NZ$3.83 per share.

• If the Scheme has not been implemented by 31 March 2022, the final cash consideration will be progressively increased to reflect FY23 performance, up to a limit of NZ$0.10 per share.

• The Z Board unanimously recommends that shareholders vote in favour of the Scheme, subject to the Scheme consideration being within or above the valuation range specified by the independent advisor and in the absence of a Superior Proposal being made for Z (as defined in the transaction agreement).

• The Scheme is subject to a number of conditions including regulatory approvals from the New Zealand Commerce Commission (NZCC) and New Zealand Overseas Investment Office (OIO).

[trader_jackson]

some really thought they'd get it to above $4... seems they were a bit optimistic and $3.78 (give or take a few cents) was really the highest offer Z could extract.
Holders should be happy, they've still got a massive get out of jail card presented to them.

[bottomfeeder]

Can only hope another suitor turns up with a better offer.

[winner69]

I'm glad I got my mate to check out the Z Exec dining room Shed % on Friday ...saw the champagne ..... made for a good weekend to know the takeover was happening

[Balance]

There was enough nervousness on Friday for a few nervous holders to bail out at $3.38 so the all up $3.83 is a pretty good price - 45c or 13.3%.

And it’s a 32% gain for those who participated in the $350m CR last year.

Free up the money and put it into a sunrise industry.

[bottomfeeder]

Cmon Shell you know you can do it, last chance, 4.20 will do it.

[Balance]

I'm glad I got my mate to check out the Z Exec dining room Shed % on Friday ...saw the champagne ..... made for a good weekend to know the takeover was happening

Hope you backed up your infor by getting a few ZEL at $3.38 on Friday - you deserve champagne & caviar on crayfish & scampi sashimi!

[Balance]

Cmon Shell you know you can do it, last chance, 4.20 will do it.

More like Circle K?

[Grimy]

Well I'm underwhelmed....

[peat]

Anybody have a sub to the Australian?

"AMPOL eyes NZ service station IPO" published 1 hour ago.

confrms the deal as now announced

Aussie papers have the goss. I was thinking of cancelling its $40A/mth.

[winner69]

Well I'm underwhelmed....

.......and no doubt disappointed

But as t_j says it's a great get out jail card and saves you from plenty of anguish over coming years

[see weed]

There was enough nervousness on Friday for a few nervous holders to bail out at $3.38 so the all up $3.83 is a pretty good price - 45c or 13.3%.

And it’s a 32% gain for those who participated in the $350m CR last year.

Free up the money and put it into a sunrise industry.
I topped up on close last Friday to 75,000. But am with Bottomfeeder and hoping for a bidding frenzy to start. I will buy more on any sp weakness before sale:).

[peat]

Yeh
M+A's not on steroids these days !

One could always save the money for their IPO or buy Ampol. (ADL)
It looks like ADL has done better over the last couple of years although correlation is increasing. Bound to be less volatility.

13065

[Balance]

confrms the deal as now announced

Aussie papers have the goss. I was thinking of cancelling its $40A/mth.

AFR & other Aussie papers are used extensively by M&A practitioners to fly ‘kites’ & push deals in certain desired directions.

[winner69]

Well I'm underwhelmed....

....and Zsaid they had your interests at heart in getting the offer up from $3.35 ;):t_up:

[Beagle]

I'm also underwhelmed but as I've said many times this company is a really tired old mutt. Massive investment is required to give this aging thing a new lease of life including larger stores with better food and coffee and EV charging stations at all site's.

[Balance]

I'm also underwhelmed but as I've said many times this company is a really tired old mutt. Massive investment is required to give this aging thing a new lease of life including larger stores with better food and coffee and EV charging stations at all site's.

Yup - take the money and invest in Ampol if one is inclined to take a risk on the sector.

Stockmarket is mostly about investing in growth and ZEL has had its time in the sun.

[see weed]

I'm also underwhelmed but as I've said many times this company is a really tired old mutt. Massive investment is required to give this aging thing a new lease of life including larger stores with better food and coffee and EV charging stations at all site's.
Will they change the name from Z to Ampol? Whatever the name, I am sure Z/Ampol will do all you said and convert to EV and cafe etc over time, the same as all other Caltex, BP etc outlets will do over time. Then Z/Ampol sp will probably head back to $10, but only after Kiwis sell to Aussi.;)

[bull....]

brought some today , imagine ampol will change the make up of z retail offer as part of there synergies. ie sell of the convenience shop side of things

[sb9]

Interesting to read Ampol's (ALD) presentation re Z's acquisition.

***
Z Energy acquisition highlights:
Unique opportunity for Ampol to acquire the market leader in New Zealand and deliver strong financial returns

- Z Energy is the market leader in New Zealand with 40% share of New Zealand fuel sales and a similar businessmodel to Ampol
- Creates a Trans-Tasman fuel champion with a combined network of ~2,400 sites and supplying ~23.5 BL pa of fuelto customers in the Asia Pacific region, leveraging Ampol’s unique international supply chain
- Material transition and synergies1 opportunities – NZ$60-80m pa largely via, fuel procurement and overhead costreductions
- Compelling financial returns – targeting double digit EPS accretion and 20%+ free cash flow accretion in 2023
- Creates a stronger platform for development of lower emissions energy solutions for customers across Australia andNew Zealand
***

I'm waiting for the bidding war to start and should be at least a price with 4 in front.

[theace]

My average buy is ~$4.65 ... so bought a few more to dampen the loss. Obviously not too pleased on where they've landed.

[theace]

I'm waiting for the bidding war to start and should be at least a price with 4 in front.

What's the window for anyone else to come out and bid? ..before it's locked in for Ampol.

[Beagle]

Will they change the name from Z to Ampol? Whatever the name, I am sure Z/Ampol will do all you said and convert to EV and cafe etc over time, the same as all other Caltex, BP etc outlets will do over time. Then Z/Ampol sp will probably head back to $10, but only after Kiwis sell to Aussi.;)
Possibly leave the branding as is, its what Kiwi's have come to know and many would be stupid enough to continue to buy the line that Z is for New Zealand. I read recently that they have changed advertising agencies...(existing advertising was weak in my opinion). Like most things Mike Bennetts and his "leadership" team do its too little and too late.

Interesting to read Ampol's (ALD) presentation re Z's acquisition.

- Material transition and synergies1 opportunities – NZ$60-80m pa largely via, fuel procurement and overhead costreductions
- Compelling financial returns – targeting double digit EPS accretion and 20%+ free cash flow accretion in 2023
- Creates a stronger platform for development of lower emissions energy solutions for customers across Australia andNew Zealand
***
I'm waiting for the bidding war to start and should be at least a price with 4 in front.
Some will be genuine synergies but most will be removing egregiously high management salaries that have continued to be paid irrespective of the extremely poor leadership and management. I'm not selling yet either...at the very least the international arbitrage funds will start to get to work here and the price should go a little higher over time. Who knows, another bid might be possible ?

[Balance]

Interesting to read Ampol's (ALD) presentation re Z's acquisition.

***
Z Energy acquisition highlights:
Unique opportunity for Ampol to acquire the market leader in New Zealand and deliver strong financial returns

- Z Energy is the market leader in New Zealand with 40% share of New Zealand fuel sales and a similar businessmodel to Ampol
- Creates a Trans-Tasman fuel champion with a combined network of ~2,400 sites and supplying ~23.5 BL pa of fuelto customers in the Asia Pacific region, leveraging Ampol’s unique international supply chain
- Material transition and synergies1 opportunities – NZ$60-80m pa largely via, fuel procurement and overhead costreductions
- Compelling financial returns – targeting double digit EPS accretion and 20%+ free cash flow accretion in 2023
- Creates a stronger platform for development of lower emissions energy solutions for customers across Australia andNew Zealand
***

I'm waiting for the bidding war to start and should be at least a price with 4 in front.

Bought some more at $3.60 - downside covered by the $3.83 Ampol bid with another 10% to 15% potential upside from another bidder. Best risk reward play on the market rather than money in the bank.

Don't really want to wake up tomorrow morning and read in the AFR that another bidder has offered $4.15 and Amnpol has decided to counter.

[peat]

interesting to see you guys still hangin in.
I've already had two bites at this cherry and unlike you guys and Metlife wont be having a third. My portfolio has a reasonable chunk of Aussie resource so will just leave it there for now.

[Beagle]

Z have spouted on about the annual divvy being 19-23 cents, (mid point 21 cents in annual dividends) which suggests a fair interim dividend should be 10.5 cents. In that context to only allow shareholders to have half the dividend they're entitled too Mike, his team and the board have again failed shareholders. (I say "again" because over the years they've consistently failed shareholders with their lack of vision and leadership).

Really the minimum satisfactory deal as I see it is to allow the payment of normal interim and final dividends, (total 21 cps) so I will vote no, (not that my small stake will make any difference).

To Balance's point above which I think is a good one. The current deal as tabled provides the accrual of $3.83 - $3.60 = 23 cents in value between now and 31 March 2022 and after that if the deal isn't implemented by 31/3/21 there's up to another 10 cents in value. Not a done deal yet but 23 / 360 = 6.4% return in 5 2/3'rds months = annual rate of return of 13.5% plus the possibility of a counter offer. Chance of Commerce Commission turning it down but I am confident they will find a work around for that. Definitely not a sell at this point and maybe Balance is right, perhaps its a buy ?

[FTG]

Z have spouted on about the annual divvy being 19-23 cents, (mid point 21 cents in annual dividends) which suggests a fair interim dividend should be 10.5 cents. In that context to only allow shareholders to have half the dividend they're entitled too Mike, his team and the board have again failed shareholders. (I say "again" because over the years they've consistently failed shareholders with their lack of vision and leadership).

Really the minimum satisfactory deal as I see it is to allow the payment of normal interim and final dividends, (total 21 cps) so I will vote no, (not that my small stake will make any difference).

To Balance's point above which I think is a good one. The current deal as tabled provides the accrual of $3.83 - $3.60 = 23 cents in value between now and 31 March 2022 and after that if the deal isn't implemented by 31/3/21 there's up to another 10 cents in value. Not a done deal yet but 23 / 360 = 6.4% return in 5 2/3'rds months = annual rate of return of 13.5% plus the possibility of a counter offer. Chance of Commerce Commission turning it down but I am confident they will find a work around for that. Definitely not a sell at this point and maybe Balance is right, perhaps its a buy ?


From what you can see Beagle, are there any sneaky backdoor exit clauses for Ampol in the SIA that we should keep an eye on? e.g. Similar to how the MET or ABA deals were structured.

[see weed]

Z have spouted on about the annual divvy being 19-23 cents, (mid point 21 cents in annual dividends) which suggests a fair interim dividend should be 10.5 cents. In that context to only allow shareholders to have half the dividend they're entitled too Mike, his team and the board have again failed shareholders. (I say "again" because over the years they've consistently failed shareholders with their lack of vision and leadership).

Really the minimum satisfactory deal as I see it is to allow the payment of normal interim and final dividends, (total 21 cps) so I will vote no, (not that my small stake will make any difference).

To Balance's point above which I think is a good one. The current deal as tabled provides the accrual of $3.83 - $3.60 = 23 cents in value between now and 31 March 2022 and after that if the deal isn't implemented by 31/3/21 there's up to another 10 cents in value. Not a done deal yet but 23 / 360 = 6.4% return in 5 2/3'rds months = annual rate of return of 13.5% plus the possibility of a counter offer. Chance of Commerce Commission turning it down but I am confident they will find a work around for that. Definitely not a sell at this point and maybe Balance is right, perhaps its a buy ?
I have an idea. First, is ZEL the only NZ owned petrol etc supplier? If so NZ is going to have to buy all our petrol etc supplies from overseas companies, and all profits are going overseas as most of our banks etc. Why don't someone put on social media that NZ is going to sell our only supplier to aussi and it is going cheap, then tell everyone to quickly buy shares in ZEL and sp will shoot up to $4.50c. Now who wants to sell their shares to aussi now at such a discount of $3.78c:t_down:. I am with Beagle on this and will vote no for this to go ahead, and am looking forward to the next div. So come on NZ, buy now and lets get that sp above $4. Go now and buy 5,000,000 shares before close on Friday, WE CAN DO IT!!! GO YOU LITTLE BEAUTY!!!:t_up:

[see weed]

I have an idea. First, is ZEL the only NZ owned petrol etc supplier? If so NZ is going to have to buy all our petrol etc supplies from overseas companies, and all profits are going overseas as most of our banks etc. Why don't someone put on social media that NZ is going to sell our only supplier to aussi and it is going cheap, then tell everyone to quickly buy shares in ZEL and sp will shoot up to $4.50c. Now who wants to sell their shares to aussi now at such a discount of $3.78c:t_down:. I am with Beagle on this and will vote no for this to go ahead, and am looking forward to the next div. So come on NZ, buy now and lets get that sp above $4. Go now and buy 5,000,000 shares before close on Friday, WE CAN DO IT!!! GO YOU LITTLE BEAUTY!!!:t_up:
I will start the ball rolling and have just put in an order to buy 10,000 at $3.61c:D:t_up::cool::D

[nztx]

Z have spouted on about the annual divvy being 19-23 cents, (mid point 21 cents in annual dividends) which suggests a fair interim dividend should be 10.5 cents. In that context to only allow shareholders to have half the dividend they're entitled too Mike, his team and the board have again failed shareholders. (I say "again" because over the years they've consistently failed shareholders with their lack of vision and leadership).

Really the minimum satisfactory deal as I see it is to allow the payment of normal interim and final dividends, (total 21 cps) so I will vote no, (not that my small stake will make any difference).

To Balance's point above which I think is a good one. The current deal as tabled provides the accrual of $3.83 - $3.60 = 23 cents in value between now and 31 March 2022 and after that if the deal isn't implemented by 31/3/21 there's up to another 10 cents in value. Not a done deal yet but 23 / 360 = 6.4% return in 5 2/3'rds months = annual rate of return of 13.5% plus the possibility of a counter offer. Chance of Commerce Commission turning it down but I am confident they will find a work around for that. Definitely not a sell at this point and maybe Balance is right, perhaps its a buy ?


Sounds like Stakeholders are being ripped over badly on both the Offer amount and the Dividend to me ;)

What are Z's Board smoking to recommend such a low offer and inferring Stakeholders should also get ripped over on
the dividend or is their past 23.0 cps dividend & guidance up the pole ? ;)

Time to deliver some underarm bowling back to AMPOL IMO ;)

[nztx]

I will start the ball rolling and have just put in an order to buy 10,000 at $3.61c:D:t_up::cool::D

Time to back up the truck to join you - my friend :)

Let's see whether AMPOL can find further coin & forgo out a fairer share of the ZEL divy ;)

[bottomfeeder]

Hopefully the major shareholders will vote against it. I would rather keep what we have, unless the takeover was at least 4.20 plus dividends until deal goes through.

[winner69]

Hopefully the major shareholders will vote against it. I would rather keep what we have, unless the takeover was at least 4.20 plus dividends until deal goes through.

Major shareholders now happy as …all they wanted was the divie added on.

Z ‘gauged the temperature of shareholders’ before ‘accepting’

[Balance]

Don’t count out a counter bid emerging - Ampol’s commentary on the takeover is compelling reading for any counter bidder as to just what a bargain Ampol is getting.

Heck, Ampol is fully debt funding the takeover!!!! That’s how much it’s bankers love the deal.

[bottomfeeder]

Major shareholders now happy as …all they wanted was the divie added on.

Z ‘gauged the temperature of shareholders’ before ‘accepting’

Yes thought as much, but doesnt hurt to put it out there. The next hope will be regulatory approval is not forthcoming. Then we can flush out the backed up dividends.

[Beagle]

Had a really brief look at some of the 108 pages of the SIA document, here, http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ZEL/380676/356623.pdf
(DYOR and don't rely on me to read the whole 108 pages because I can assure you that isn't going to happen), but from what I can see the extra consideration (up to 10 cents after 31/03/2022) if the scheme isn't implemented by then accrues at a daily rate that amounts to 1.65 cents per month with a maximum of 6 months. (Annual rate of 5.5% based on $3.60 invested now)

They are targeting completion in the first half of 2022. I think its likely with all the conditions we'll go well into that six month extension period and this won't settle until around July-August 2022...that's my gut feel. Very unlikely to get done by 31 March 2022. Deal is exclusive to AMPOL and in my opinion is almost certain to contain rights within it for them to match any higher offer but I couldn't be bothered reading that far though all that guff. I might give it a week or three and see if another bid is forthcoming and if not...

[Balance]

No big hurry, Beagle to take your gains until a better opportunity comes along.

The arb funds are already hovering up the stock, to be joined soon by the fixed interest balanced funds who will find the yield at anything up to $3.70 irresistible.

[Beagle]

No big hurry, Beagle to take your gains until a better opportunity comes along.

The arb funds are already hovering up the stock, to be joined soon by the fixed interest balanced funds who will find the yield at anything up to $3.70 irresistible.

Agree 100%. Might leave it a month or two.

[see weed]

Don’t count out a counter bid emerging - Ampol’s commentary on the takeover is compelling reading for any counter bidder as to just what a bargain Ampol is getting.

Heck, Ampol is fully debt funding the takeover!!!! That’s how much it’s bankers love the deal.
Again NZ sleeps ZZZZZZZZ. When the deals done it will be big headline news, and like the banks, boo hoo all our profits going overseas again. The news will read in a couple of years.......ZEL/Ampol doing very well converting to petrol and EV and convenience store and car grooming and cafe outlets. ZEL/Ampol sp is on $5 and are declaring a 50c div, and it will be all over the news and kiwis will say, why did we let that go:(. Come on NZ wakeup! There seems to be a lot of sellers around $3.63 to $3.65?

[bottomfeeder]

Agree 100%. Might leave it a month or two.

I could hardly get past the definitions. But there is a warranty that the board is not currently in discussions with any other party, and also will not directly or indirectly, invite solicit etc any other competing bids. The agreement does make allowances for superior proposals and other due dilligence activities, but reasonably the closer we get to the shareholder vote, the less likely any competing bids will be forthcoming. If a competing bid does surface, it would probably have to be more than marginally better as Ampol will just match it. So its like they have raised the stakes considerably. Good advice to wait a few months before selling.

[FTG]

Had a really brief look at some of the 108 pages of the SIA document, here, http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ZEL/380676/356623.pdf
(DYOR and don't rely on me to read the whole 108 pages because I can assure you that isn't going to happen), but from what I can see the extra consideration (up to 10 cents after 31/03/2022) if the scheme isn't implemented by then accrues at a daily rate that amounts to 1.65 cents per month with a maximum of 6 months. (Annual rate of 5.5% based on $3.60 invested now)




Yip, DYOR folks.

Other than the standard & expected conditions precedent, e.g CC approval, I suspect there will be some "extra wriggle room force majeure" clauses tucked away in those 108 pages. :cool:

[Poet]

I'm also underwhelmed and will vote "no" when the time comes.

Why are NZ boards such wimps when it comes to takeover negotiations?

I'm not at all happy with the clause in the agreement that allows Ampol to have another bid in the event that a competing offer emerges. The Z board should not have allowed this clause. It is tantamount to an admission that Ampol hasn't made its best offer and won't do so unless a rival bid emerges.

I think such clauses should be specifically excluded by the takeovers legislation.

Z should have told Ampol to put their best price on the table now ie the price that they wouldn't go above in any circumstances - that way there wouldn't be a need for an option to rebid

[see weed]

Is Ampol buying ZEL as is where is? Who is paying for the Marsden refinery conversion to import only terminal? And how much will that cost?

[Muse]

I'm also underwhelmed and will vote "no" when the time comes.

Why are NZ boards such wimps when it comes to takeover negotiations?

I'm not at all happy with the clause in the agreement that allows Ampol to have another bid in the event that a competing offer emerges. The Z board should not have allowed this clause. It is tantamount to an admission that Ampol hasn't made its best offer and won't do so unless a rival bid emerges.

I think such clauses should be specifically excluded by the takeovers legislation.

Z should have told Ampol to put their best price on the table now ie the price that they wouldn't go above in any circumstances - that way there wouldn't be a need for an option to rebid

Well ill be voting yes. I sort of see it as now or never for a takeover of Z. The uptake of EV has been faster than many had guesses and now more EV sales than diesel sales. This business lost its way in a dying industry. It will get hit from time to time from lockdowns and the price is full from an ebitda multiple perspective especially considering it just a retailer in a sunset sector. Without a bid this thing will track lower and lower in perpetuity.

[winner69]

Comparative global companies are EV:EBITDA multiples of 7.8x to 9.5x with an average of 8.4x. Ampol is on 7.9x

Offer put ZEL at 12.7x

Seems more than a generous offer on that basis.

No doubt Calibre in independent review will agree and come up with a fair range of $3.55 to 3.90

[bull....]

i be voting yes , be under 3 if not for the deal

[Beagle]

Comparative global companies are EV:EBITDA multiples of 7.8x to 9.5x with an average of 8.4x. Ampol is on 7.9x

Offer put ZEL at 12.7x

Seems more than a generous offer on that basis.

No doubt Calibre in independent review will agree and come up with a fair range of $3.55 to 3.90

Yes...thankyou for sharing that information with me by email last evening. It does appear Ampol are paying a fair control premium for what in reality is a very tired business in a sunset industry. As Fiordland Moose has suggested above, its probably now or never and EV's are selling like hot cakes. If there's no competing bid in the next wee while its time to take the money and run.

Some of those force majeure clauses cover a multitude of evils...if I get especially bored i might drill down some more into those 108 pages and see what else is hiding in plain sight in that large can of worms.

[winner69]

Is Ampol buying ZEL as is where is? Who is paying for the Marsden refinery conversion to import only terminal? And how much will that cost?

They saying Ampol’s bid is also contingent on the Marsden Point refinery proceeding with a planned transition to an import terminal, which will bring its refining and distribution infrastructure to bear.

Jeez that was a sharp quake down here just now

[Beagle]

As at the date of this agreement, Z Energy is not in negotiations or discussions
(other than with Ampol and its Representatives) with any party relating to, or which
may reasonably be expected to lead to, any Competing Proposal.
Mined out that information from the 108 pages

[see weed]

Does anyone know the land value of all the Z sites in NZ? Has that been considered? And if the deal fell through and sp went back down to $3.10c, that would still be a good yld stock to hold. eg. When the McDonalds brothers sold out to the franchises, that is when McDonald became a multi billion dollar company. The money is not in the hamburgers but in the land. So what we are selling here is not a sunset business, but a new future sunrise business which will house all the new EV recharging outlets.:scared: Come on NZ, lets not loose another company to overseas interests.

[Muse]

Comparative global companies are EV:EBITDA multiples of 7.8x to 9.5x with an average of 8.4x. Ampol is on 7.9x

Offer put ZEL at 12.7x

Seems more than a generous offer on that basis.

No doubt Calibre in independent review will agree and come up with a fair range of $3.55 to 3.90

Good analysis. Great to provide context to the offer. In light of this anyone who plans to vote no want to outline the fact basis for it? IE beyond just saying “its too low” or “doesnt start with a 4” ?

[Muse]

Does anyone know the land value of all the Z sites in NZ? Has that been considered? And if the deal fell through and sp went back down to $3.10c, that would still be a good yld stock to hold. eg. When the McDonalds brothers sold out to the franchises, that is when McDonald became a multi billion dollar company. The money is not in the hamburgers but in the land. So what we are selling here is not a sunset business, but a new future sunrise business which will house all the new EV recharging outlets.:scared: Come on NZ, lets not loose another company to overseas interests.

Wont most people recharge at home - something you cant do with petrol? People NEED to fill up their car with petrol at a station but wont need to charge at a station for most of their charges. Suddenly youve lost a tremendous proportion of your foot traffic. The land is only worth what it is economically able produce - if it loses that the land value declines. Not even sure but my guess is the offer price is susbtantially higher than net tangible assets. Doesnt matter to me if it goes offshore. It was owned by shell previously and shrill cries of “losing” kiwi ownership is a pretty empty arguement.

[Muse]

Does anyone know the land value of all the Z sites in NZ? Has that been considered? And if the deal fell through and sp went back down to $3.10c, that would still be a good yld stock to hold. eg. When the McDonalds brothers sold out to the franchises, that is when McDonald became a multi billion dollar company. The money is not in the hamburgers but in the land. So what we are selling here is not a sunset business, but a new future sunrise business which will house all the new EV recharging outlets.:scared: Come on NZ, lets not loose another company to overseas interests.

Just did a quick look. ZEL has net assets of about 1 billion. Offer is for about 2 billion. So yes twice your assets. You can sell for 50% of the share offer if you want to hold steady on your logic

[Habits]

Does anyone know the land value of all the Z sites in NZ? Has that been considered? And if the deal fell through and sp went back down to $3.10c, that would still be a good yld stock to hold. eg. When the McDonalds brothers sold out to the franchises, that is when McDonald became a multi billion dollar company. The money is not in the hamburgers but in the land. So what we are selling here is not a sunset business, but a new future sunrise business which will house all the new EV recharging outlets.:scared: Come on NZ, lets not loose another company to overseas interests.

Many of the ZEL sites were sale and lease-back and now privately owned. I know someone who bought one, land only, in West Hamilton sight unseen and has never even neen there after 5 years. He tried to sell it to me for a big capital gain

[winner69]

Just did a quick look. ZEL has net assets of about 1 billion. Offer is for about 2 billion. So yes twice your assets. You can sell for 50% of the share offer if you want to hold steady on your logic

Land and buildings is about $400m. Revalued regularly they say
..
Ampol tried to IPO their property assets a year or so ago - think it didn't proceed when they became the target of an acquisition but its back on the agenda. Might be intending to hock off NZ properties at same time.

[winner69]

AFR says Ampol could get $400m to $600m for Gull if sold or spun off as a separately listed company

[Beagle]

Many of the ZEL sites were sale and lease-back and now privately owned. I know someone who bought one, land only, in West Hamilton sight unseen and has never even neen there after 5 years. He tried to sell it to me for a big capital gain

.....................Deleted

[dreamcatcher]

Previously before covid Z was a $6 baby providing fuel for transport and airlines. Ampol's T/O sees value where holders don't and prepared to pay a premium, furthermore quitting their own Gull brand to acquire............ Goal is to make money right ?

Just curious on others thoughts

[ananda77]

Previously before covid Z was a $6 baby providing fuel for transport and airlines. Ampol's T/O sees value where holders don't and prepared to pay a premium, furthermore quitting their own Gull brand to acquire............ Goal is to make money right ?

Just curious on others thoughts

...all this makes a lot of sense if like I do think that the current EV trend will be a passing joke and hydrogen will be the future fuel powering EV's . Regarding this scenario, Ampol acquiring Z will be the bargain of the century and Z holders selling now will deeply regret their decision.
I will not sell my shares to Ampol for a bun 'n an egg!

[sb9]

Looks like Ampol mopping up cheap ones on market, looking at huge stacked up volume on bid side

[winner69]

Looks like Ampol mopping up cheap ones on market, looking at huge stacked up volume on bid side

Doubt if Ampol buying ....are they even allowed to?

As Balance says the arb guys are at play now

[Balance]

Doubt if Ampol buying ....are they even allowed to?

As Balance says the arb guys are at play now

By their activity, arb funds often end up being the decisive players to help push a takeover over the line and in some instances, demand a higher offer.

[dreamcatcher]

Morning Brief

"Fuel retailer Z Energy was hard hit by the pandemic as the world stopped burning jet fuel and demand for vehicle fuel also declined.

The stock dramatically almost halved in value, from $4.75 in January 2020 to trade as low as $2.52 this May.

However, this changed when Australian fuel company Ampol stepped in with a takeover offer at $3.78 per share that gave investors a possible exit.

Today Z’s board of directors endorsed the takeover offer after Ampol agreed to allow the company to pay out $26 million of dividends to current shareholders, effectively boosting the offer to $3.83.

This sent the share price soaring 6.8% to reach $3.61, still short of the takeover offer which depends on approval from regulators and shareholders, as well as the Marsden Point refinery transitioning to an import operation and final sign off from the high court."

Jet Fuel ready for takeoff shortly..........

[sb9]

By their activity, arb funds often end up being the decisive players to help push a takeover over the line and in some instances, demand a higher offer.


Doubt if Ampol buying ....are they even allowed to?

As Balance says the arb guys are at play now

Looks that way, most off market trades are going thro at 3.625 mark.

[Beagle]

By their activity, arb funds often end up being the decisive players to help push a takeover over the line and in some instances, demand a higher offer.

Looking at the depth the arb players have woken up and joined the party so we can expect gradual price appreciation with the passage of time. As you said, better than returns on money in the bank but perhaps not without slightly more risk. This hound is starting to fall to sleep with this one...chances of a competing bid looking slimmer by the day...

[bull....]

Previously before covid Z was a $6 baby providing fuel for transport and airlines. Ampol's T/O sees value where holders don't and prepared to pay a premium, furthermore quitting their own Gull brand to acquire............ Goal is to make money right ?

Just curious on others thoughts


ampol will sell gull , maybe float the retail stores like ampol did with there network in australia into a property trust and they say ampol has already had pre- lim talks with NZCC during due diligence and the govt maybe supportive due to better fuel security from a bigger player with there own refinery

[see weed]

Something strange going on here lately. Sp been at 3.62 - 3.63 for last couple of days. Some group of holders don't want sp to go up and another lot don't want sp to go down:confused:. Are friends of Ampol keeping sp down to make it look like a better deal?

[Beagle]

Lots of water to flow under the bridge before you get your $3.78 and only 5 cents extra in dividend and 1.65 cents per month extra after 31 March 2022.
Some big arbitrage funds will buy that gain they think they are highly likely to get over the period to when the payout occurs, (assuming it does), and lots of others will take the money early and exit.

This sort of situation leads to very heavy depth on both sides and is completely normal and something we saw in the MET takeover situation in recent times. Nothing untoward going on here in my opinion. Holders can either take the money, run and buy some other opportunity or hold and gradually see the share price head slowly northwards as this deal slowly progresses.

Other possibilities exist but are most probably unlikely. 1. A higher offer from another party. 2. A withdraw of this offer for some reason. 3. This deal failing one of the conditions built into the agreement.

[nztx]

Petrol prices: 'Fuel has never been so expensive' and prices could rise higher

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/126664404/petrol-prices-fuel-has-never-been-so-expensive-and-prices-could-rise-higher


Fair Offer Price based on this ? Yeah Nah .. Nah ;)

[malreid]

Wont most people recharge at home - something you cant do with petrol? People NEED to fill up their car with petrol at a station but wont need to charge at a station for most of their charges. Suddenly youve lost a tremendous proportion of your foot traffic.....
Yup. If/when I go EV I certainly won't be looking to hang around some kind of service station or convenience store to charge up. It'll be at home, work or at the shopping mall or supermarket while I have other things to do.

Our local supermarket location already has several quick chargers installed and I can see this becoming part of the supermarket/mall business model rather than a transition/conversion of petrol stations to some kind of EV hubs. I only see that working if the fossil fuel companies become EV fleet car share companies like Mevo.

Hydrogen? More of a front runner. The business to invest in though is the one that gets the job of decommissioning and remediation of redundant fossil fuel infrastructure.

Biofuels will grow, but only for aviation and shipping until the electric and hydrogen alternatives become much more scalable.

[Beagle]

Agree mostly about home EV charging but on a road trip its different.
Relatively new sections of the Waikato expressway are an interesting case study on what the future may hold. Regular off ramps to "Service centers" which contain EV charging stations which may or may not belong to the service station, sorry I can't remember but more likely are installed by the likes of https://charge.net.nz/ so charge-net pays for the install and reaps the benefits but they're certainly adjacent to the fuel service station and of course there's a small range of other convenience stores, cafe's and one or two fast food outlets.

I am not so sure anymore just installing a fast charger at the average Z service station in a provincial area is going to be sufficient to attract EV drivers attendance as I think people expect more than just the facilities offered by a Z service station while they wait for their EV's to charge up.

Mrs B and I sometimes stop as these service centers because they're a good place to take a break and usually have a decent café with food and coffee that's vastly better than what you'd get at an average service station.

No matter which way you slice and dice it (even just compared to BP's substantially better food and coffee offer ) Z's stores look tired and dated and its a sunset industry. Jet fuel demand isn't coming screaming back in huge volumes anytime soon either in my opinion.

[malreid]

Long haul or intercity that makes sense, but not in suburbia where 95% of service stations are located.

[Waltzing]

Well maybe the answer is the mixture running that Aston Martin. Wine and cheese anyone?

[Beagle]

Well maybe the answer is the mixture running that Aston Martin. Wine and cheese anyone?

https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/motors/cars/aston-martin/db11/listing/3225611056?bof=QSL2t9Ya

[winner69]

Petrol prices: 'Fuel has never been so expensive' and prices could rise higher

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/126664404/petrol-prices-fuel-has-never-been-so-expensive-and-prices-could-rise-higher


Fair Offer Price based on this ? Yeah Nah .. Nah ;)

Do Z generally make better profits with high fuel costs?

Anybody know

[Muse]

Lots of water to flow under the bridge before you get your $3.78 and only 5 cents extra in dividend and 1.65 cents per month extra after 31 March 2022.
Some big arbitrage funds will buy that gain they think they are highly likely to get over the period to when the payout occurs, (assuming it does), and lots of others will take the money early and exit.

This sort of situation leads to very heavy depth on both sides and is completely normal and something we saw in the MET takeover situation in recent times. Nothing untoward going on here in my opinion. Holders can either take the money, run and buy some other opportunity or hold and gradually see the share price head slowly northwards as this deal slowly progresses.

Other possibilities exist but are most probably unlikely. 1. A higher offer from another party. 2. A withdraw of this offer for some reason. 3. This deal failing one of the conditions built into the agreement.

Agree. Its just a discount to reflect time and risk. Normal and appropriate.

[jg8512]

Do Z generally make better profits with high fuel costs?

Anybody know

Z know. They made quite a fuss in their presso to March 2021 saying they have "margin compression from sharp input cost increases... and margin expansion from sharp input cost decreases". Which is intuitive too. See slide 9 in https://portalvhds1fxb0jchzgjph.blob.core.windows.net/press-releases-attachments/1306003/ZEL%20FY21%20Results%20Presentation

[ananda77]

Hydrogen? More of a front runner. The business to invest in though is the one that gets the job of decommissioning and remediation of redundant fossil fuel infrastructure.

Biofuels will grow, but only for aviation and shipping until the electric and hydrogen alternatives become much more scalable.

Current EV's? who apart from some yuppies put up with the time wasting (no it's not a coffee brake, it's a forced stop because these fancy little jokes don't last the distance) - all the time...and do not tell the courier contractors and truckies they need to change to an EV...they are horrified at such a prospect.
No, the future fuel of convenience is hydrogen and to fill up, service stations, as we know them now will still be needed.

[Waltzing]

Ah now we know what MR B new car is going to be from his many profitable investments.

[Arthur]

Current EV's? who apart from some yuppies put up with the time wasting (no it's not a coffee brake, it's a forced stop because these fancy little jokes don't last the distance) - all the time...and do not tell the courier contractors and truckies they need to change to an EV...they are horrified at such a prospect.
No, the future fuel of convenience is hydrogen and to fill up, service stations, as we know them now will still be needed.

Commuting 800 km through the snow each day towing a 10 metre yacht is such fun in an EV. The 90% of EV owners that start each day with a full charge don't know what they are missing.

[Beagle]

LOL...lockdown has been bad for coming up with all sorts of idea's...my trade me watchlist is full of them. I'm worse than a spoilt kid in a candy shop with too much pocket money ;)

Aston Martins are awesome but attract all sorts of attention and some of it isn't good.
Its a really bad look from an ESG perspective rocking up in one of those when 90%+ of other people are really hurting in this Covid pandemic.
Where do you park it that's safe ? Pretty tempting target for seriously disaffected people to vandalize the car.

[ananda77]

Aston Martins are awesome but attract all sorts of attention and some of it isn't good.
Its a really bad look from an ESG perspective rocking up in one of those when 90%+ of other people are really hurting in this Covid pandemic.
Where do you park it that's safe ? Pretty tempting target for seriously disaffected people to vandalize the car.

What's the problem Beagle? - just turn into a evangelical born again christian and you don't need to bother with these sort of moralistic petty views and since Jesus is protecting you and your ride, don't worry about secure parking. Just look at Tamaki as a shining example of "I am on a deserving Special' 👏

[see weed]

Agree mostly about home EV charging but on a road trip its different.
Relatively new sections of the Waikato expressway are an interesting case study on what the future may hold. Regular off ramps to "Service centers" which contain EV charging stations which may or may not belong to the service station, sorry I can't remember but more likely are installed by the likes of https://charge.net.nz/ so charge-net pays for the install and reaps the benefits but they're certainly adjacent to the fuel service station and of course there's a small range of other convenience stores, cafe's and one or two fast food outlets.

I am not so sure anymore just installing a fast charger at the average Z service station in a provincial area is going to be sufficient to attract EV drivers attendance as I think people expect more than just the facilities offered by a Z service station while they wait for their EV's to charge up.

Mrs B and I sometimes stop as these service centers because they're a good place to take a break and usually have a decent café with food and coffee that's vastly better than what you'd get at an average service station.

No matter which way you slice and dice it (even just compared to BP's substantially better food and coffee offer ) Z's stores look tired and dated and its a sunset industry. Jet fuel demand isn't coming screaming back in huge volumes anytime soon either in my opinion.
Hey Beagle, this sort of talk sounds like you have already sold your ZEL shares;). Lot of the Z stations I have been in around my neck of the woods look very new clean and with good food, but I will not comment on the coffee, as I do not drink it. So all these other tired and dated BP, Caltex, Gull and Mobil etc outlets are also in a sunset industry. The question is, how long does it take for the sun to set on this industry? And why would an Aussi company snatch an ice cream, sorry, be spending $2 billion on a sunset industry? I am sure these outlets will be around for a long long time in one form or another. Long time = long sun set:)

[see weed]

One other thing, got 2 emails from Abby Foote the Chair of Z late last night. Did any other holders of ZEL get similar emails?

[winner69]

One other thing, got 2 emails from Abby Foote the Chair of Z late last night. Did any other holders of ZEL get similar emails?

Second one was apologising for a mistake in the first ...Z often have to correct things

[dreamcatcher]

One other thing, got 2 emails from Abby Foote the Chair of Z late last night. Did any other holders of ZEL get similar emails?

yep same here

[peat]

Well maybe the answer is the mixture running that Aston Martin. Wine and cheese anyone?

what an amazing scene with the Aston Martin in the latest 007 movie !!
13098

[Beagle]

Hey Beagle, this sort of talk sounds like you have already sold your ZEL shares;). Lot of the Z stations I have been in around my neck of the woods look very new clean and with good food, but I will not comment on the coffee, as I do not drink it. So all these other tired and dated BP, Caltex, Gull and Mobil etc outlets are also in a sunset industry. The question is, how long does it take for the sun to set on this industry? And why would an Aussi company snatch an ice cream, sorry, be spending $2 billion on a sunset industry? I am sure these outlets will be around for a long long time in one form or another. Long time = long sun set:)

BP wild bean coffee rocks. Our resident expert guru, now head of shareholders association who knows this industry extremely well told me some interesting information about this sector, (which I am sure he won't mind me sharing) including the average weekly instore purchases at BP sites compared to ZEL...I am going off memory here but I think it was about 3.5 times higher at BP, average across the country. $131K v 35K from vague memory, figures were from a while back.

I still hold in the hope there is a chance of a better offer but I am not holding my breath.
You're right its going to be a long sunset. I don't think anyone thinks otherwise but it is going to be an accelerating trend. Once EV's achieve price parity with regular ICE vehicles the rate of decline will really begin to accelerate. They'll still be selling fuel in the 2040's and 2050's but it won't be anything like the volume now. I think Z put out some graph in their presentation of volume expectations in the years ahead...I'll see if I can find it or maybe someone else will share ?

Thanks to Winner emailing me some research on comparative multiples for other industry players overseas I have reached the preliminary conclusion that 12.4 times EBITDA looks like a pretty fair price to me but I will reserve judgement until we get the independent valuation.

Yes a very long sunset. http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ZEL/376302/351087.pdf
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ZEL/376302/351086.pdf

[winner69]

Independent Report will say fair price us $3.55 to $3.90 …..shareholders should accept in other words

[see weed]

BP wild bean coffee rocks. Our resident expert guru, now head of shareholders association who knows this industry extremely well told me some interesting information about this sector, (which I am sure he won't mind me sharing) including the average weekly instore purchases at BP sites compared to ZEL...I am going off memory here but I think it was about 3.5 times higher at BP, average across the country. $131K v 35K from vague memory, figures were from a while back.

I still hold in the hope there is a chance of a better offer but I am not holding my breath.
You're right its going to be a long sunset. I don't think anyone thinks otherwise but it is going to be an accelerating trend. Once EV's achieve price parity with regular ICE vehicles the rate of decline will really begin to accelerate. They'll still be selling fuel in the 2040's and 2050's but it won't be anything like the volume now. I think Z put out some graph in their presentation of volume expectations in the years ahead...I'll see if I can find it or maybe someone else will share ?

Thanks to Winner emailing me some research on comparative multiples for other industry players overseas I have reached the preliminary conclusion that 12.4 times EBITDA looks like a pretty fair price to me but I will reserve judgement until we get the independent valuation.

Yes a very long sunset. http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ZEL/376302/351087.pdf
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ZEL/376302/351086.pdf
Thanks for the info Beagle. Will not have time to read all that, but am also in this for a quick buck. Whatever happens, it doesn't really mater who is the best brand, they will all be foreign owned. The question is, do we take our profit now or wait a couple of months for an extra amount of $ks?

[Muse]

Thanks for the info Beagle. Will not have time to read all that, but am also in this for a quick buck. Whatever happens, it doesn't really mater who is the best brand, they will all be foreign owned. The question is, do we take our profit now or wait a couple of months for an extra amount of $ks?

Hope you pay your tax on dem quick bucks

[see weed]

Hope you pay your tax on dem quick bucks
Don't worry about the tax, I have that all under control. My accountant of the last 20 years or so did his apprenticeship and auditor with the IRD. I have a good system. But this is not the time or place to talk about this. Maybe at the next ST meeting if you want to learn some good ways of getting around things;).

[Beagle]

Thanks for the info Beagle. Will not have time to read all that, but am also in this for a quick buck. Whatever happens, it doesn't really mater who is the best brand, they will all be foreign owned. The question is, do we take our profit now or wait a couple of months for an extra amount of $ks?
We might as well play possums stuck in the headlights for a while, at least until we get a look at the independent appraisal report and go from there.
Probably be what Winner suggested above.

[Joh13]

Looks as though the market is pricing in a 83% probability that the deal goes ahead.

[Muse]

Don't worry about the tax, I have that all under control. My accountant of the last 20 years or so did his apprenticeship and auditor with the IRD. I have a good system. But this is not the time or place to talk about this. Maybe at the next ST meeting if you want to learn some good ways of getting around things;).

Thanks. I’ll pass.

[nztx]

Looks as though the market is pricing in a 83% probability that the deal goes ahead.

Probably a good probability of extracting more coin out of the Aussies too ;)

[malreid]

I wonder what Ampol will do with the $50M green and white elephant that is Z biodiesel plant, or if their due diligence to date has identified that fact? Their future fuels strategy presents biofuels as blending and distribution opportunities across the existing network rather than development and production, with hydrogen taking centre stage alongside electricity as the most likely transition path.

[bull....]

I wonder what Ampol will do with the $50M green and white elephant that is Z biodiesel plant, or if their due diligence to date has identified that fact? Their future fuels strategy presents biofuels as blending and distribution opportunities across the existing network rather than development and production, with hydrogen taking centre stage alongside electricity as the most likely transition path.

probably scrap it. they just want the the z sites

[sb9]

Looks as though the market is pricing in a 83% probability that the deal goes ahead.

Seems that way and sell side volume has lightened up considerably compared to last week.

[sb9]

Looks like its just Ampol only and unlikely any further bids from other parties.

[winner69]

Z to announce H1 on Thursday

Kudos to them for being so prompt -- most September ending period companies will dilly dally around and wait until the last week of November

[ananda77]

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/454810/plan-to-build-four-green-hydrogen-fuelling-stations-in-north-island-begins

imo, that is the future of efficient individual transportation, not diddly electric push-cars. In that respect Ampol buying Z gets the bargain of the century. It's just a pity, Z is so cash strapped, they just sit lstunned like possums in front of head lights

[Balance]

https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2111/S00074/ampol-seeks-clearance-to-acquire-z.htm

Commerce Commission clearance application filed, with undertaking to dispose of Gull as expected.

[sb9]

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/454810/plan-to-build-four-green-hydrogen-fuelling-stations-in-north-island-begins

imo, that is the future of efficient individual transportation, not diddly electric push-cars. In that respect Ampol buying Z gets the bargain of the century. It's just a pity, Z is so cash strapped, they just sit lstunned like possums in front of head lights

Yeah unfortunately in the absence of any competitive bids and big boys incl Board supporting the deal, this is as good as it gets for shareholders.

[Balance]

Yeah unfortunately in the absence of any competitive bids and big boys incl Board supporting the deal, this is as good as it gets for shareholders.


Can always invest in Ampol.

[sb9]

Can always invest in Ampol.

Sure, they're definitely doing very well as per latest quarterly numbers...

Oct 26 (Reuters) - Australia's Ampol Ltd (ALD (https://hotcopper.com.au/asx/ald)) on Tuesday reported a near 71% rise in third-quarter profit on a turnaround at its Lytton Refinery operations and said it expected fuel volumes to recover as COVID-19 restrictions on travel ease. The country's biggest fuel supplier said net profit for the three months ended Sept. 30 rose to A$41 million ($30.60 million) on a replacement cost basis, which excludes the impact of inventory and foreign exchange changes. The Lytton operations posted earnings of A$22 million, compared with a loss of A$82 million a year earlier.
Chief Executive Officer Matt Halliday said the recent government moves to ease COVID-19 curbs in New South Wales and Victoria were expected to aid fuel demand, while reopening of international travel would be positive for the jet fuel market.

[see weed]

Can always invest in Ampol.
I prefer to buy ZEL. 10,000 shares in ZEL for $36,100 would give me a div of approx $1,900. If I invested $36,100 into Ampol, that would get me approx. 1,170 shares, which would get me approx $800 in divs. That is just a rough calculation without exchange rate. It is just a bit sad to be selling at this time just before NZ and airlines etc. open up again. One thing I assume, is ZEL must be a much better company than Gull or has more going for it. Could be the baby with an ice cream syndrome.

[dreamcatcher]

If any alternative bid is likely it could happen after NZ opens up and Z returning to full speed

Holders don't need to approve T/O and do the numbers stack up for acceptance

[bottomfeeder]

I'm out today. Last lot sold for $3.61. If takeover goes ahead, we dont get much in divs. Just the price offered by AMPOL. If it falls through, the SP will drop to low $3s. So as I have something else to move into, best get out now. Maybe back in if it all falls through.

[Beagle]

Yeap, I got got bored last week @ $3.62. Happy to leave the crumbs that are left over to others.

[Sideshow Bob]

Z Energy 1HFY22 Earnings - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/382180)

Z Energy 1HFY22 Earnings

4/11/2021, 8:30 amHALFYRSolid earnings recovery hampered by COVID-19 lockdowns and rising input costs

* RC EBITDAF of $114m up 20% versus PCP of $95m
* Total marketing volume up 11% versus PCP with COVID-19 lockdowns affecting demand in 2Q with Auckland regional volume up 8% versus PCP
* Retail margin compression, especially in 2Q due to rising crude and product prices, offset by Z’s long ETS position in a rising carbon market
* Z Board has entered into a binding Scheme Implementation Agreement (SIA) with Ampol at an overall value of $3.83 per share
* Full year FY22 guidance confirmed of RC EBITDAF between $270m and $310m
* Fully imputed interim dividend of 7 cents per share declared

Z Energy (NZX / ASX: ZEL) today announced its earnings for the six months to 30 September 2021.

Z Energy (Z) reports its earnings on an historic cost (HC) as well as replacement cost (RC) basis. Statutory financial statements are reported on an historic cost basis in accordance with NZ IRFS, however replacement cost accounting is the globally used non-GAAP industry standard to measure financial performance.
Historical cost net profit (loss) after tax (HC NPAT) was $92m for the half year, up 259% from a loss of ($58m) in the prior corresponding period (PCP) primarily driven by rising crude and product prices.

Z reported replacement cost earnings before interest, depreciation, and amortisation (RC EBITDAF) of $114m, up 20% from $95m in the PCP primarily due to increased refining processing volume and improved unit refining margin along with increased C-Store sales and Z establishing a long ETS position in 1Q. Z’s replacement cost net profit after tax (RC NPAT) was $11m, up 158% from a loss of ($19m) in the PCP.

Mike Bennetts, CEO for Z Energy commented, “Z remains focussed on its FY24 roadmap objectives; to optimise the core business, transition the company to a low carbon future and maintain disciplined capital management. Z delivered on its four-point improvement plan against a challenging operating environment from COVID-19 related lockdowns and rising crude and product prices.”

Net operating cash flow decreased versus PCP due to the cash settlement of the CY20 Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) obligation and increased product prices.

A fully imputed interim dividend of 7 cents per share will be paid on 8 December 2021 with the dividend record date being 19 November 2021.

[sb9]

Trades 7c CD from today, would that nudge sp closer to 3.70..

[ananda77]

Trades 7c CD from today, would that nudge sp closer to 3.70..

normally sp down over the amount of dividend, but with a T/O offer of 3.83 should not matter anyway, rather, it's now 383 +7 = 390 T/O...getting more interesting

[see weed]

normally sp down over the amount of dividend, but with a T/O offer of 3.83 should not matter anyway, rather, it's now 383 +7 = 390 T/O...getting more interesting
Lets take Ampol out of the picture for a minute or two. What would be a fair price for a company paying a 21c div? At the moment $3.61 gives about 5.8% yld. Beagle might have a better idea at these sort of figures. I also sold half my holding last week, but thought b..ger it and bought them back again out of boredom. If the deal with Ampol happened to fall through, then the sp would fall a wee bit but would soon recover with the div chasers. What would happen if div chasers came in now buying millions of shares and pushing sp up to $3.90c which is still equal to about 5.4% yld. We wouldn't have to worry about the Ampol offer and carry on our merry way collecting nice div every 6 months:t_up:.

[ananda77]

Lets take Ampol out of the picture for a minute or two. What would be a fair price for a company paying a 21c div? At the moment $3.61 gives about 5.8% yld. Beagle might have a better idea at these sort of figures. I also sold half my holding last week, but thought b..ger it and bought them back again out of boredom. If the deal with Ampol happened to fall through, then the sp would fall a wee bit but would soon recover with the div chasers. What would happen if div chasers came in now buying millions of shares and pushing sp up to $3.90c which is still equal to about 5.4% yld. We wouldn't have to worry about the Ampol offer and carry on our merry way collecting nice div every 6 months:t_up:.

pity it's most likely not gonna happen since lots seems to just take a sh..t, like in, If the dog didn't take a sh..t, he would have caught the cat...

[Beagle]

My understanding is the maximum interim dividend they could pay without the final price being affected was set at 5 cps so the 7 cent divvy will reduce the final price to $3.81 if this proceeds.

Interestingly the final sign off by directors to convert the Marsden Point Terminal to import only hasn't occurred yet, which is likely to be one of the conditions.

To your question Seaweed.
ZEL is a sunset industry so needs to have a higher gross yield than say WHS at 9% forecast which at least in theory has some growth.

I think this would revert to the $2.50-$2.70 it was before, without the takeover offer, consistent with a gross required yield of about 10% for a sunset industry.

[Poet]

The price to be paid will be reduced by 2c to $3.76 after the dividend is paid not $3.81

[Balance]

The price to be paid will be reduced by 2c to $3.76 after the dividend is paid not $3.81

Correct. That’s my understanding as well.

[winner69]

ZEL sort of expressed frustration as to 'slow'progress in sorting out NZR

October 31 deadline for agreeing how the new model will work has passed with no agreement

[see weed]

The price to be paid will be reduced by 2c to $3.76 after the dividend is paid not $3.81
ZEL should do the right thing and pay the 7c div to the shareholders bank accounts on 8/12/21. Feels like being held to ransom the way they are doing it:t_down:.

[Beagle]

ZEL sort of expressed frustration as to 'slow'progress in sorting out NZR

October 31 deadline for agreeing how the new model will work has passed with no agreement

I have read a number of articles in very recent days suggesting the Marsden Point conversion to import only terminal is not a done deal.
Some rumblings in Wellington about security of fuel supply amongst other things.
One of the articles https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2110/S00495/downsides-of-marsden-point-closure-are-increasing.htm
Lots of conditions in the takeover agreement. Not an absolute certainty by any stretch of the imagination, (especially with this woke socialist Govt) they will all be met which is why I sold.
I found this article earlier this week quite interesting https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/126866243/government-decided-not-to-follow-through-on-idea-of-talks-to-save-refinery excerpt:- Energy Minister Megan Woods said in a Cabinet paper released on Tuesday there was “not a strong case to support the refinery’s operations on fuel security grounds”. But she said she was open to beginning discussions with Refining NZ on a loan or underwriting deal that could ensure the refinery stayed open for perhaps five or 10 years, citing “broader considerations”.

Is the refinery being shut down a done deal or not ? What implications for the Ampol takeover if talks drag on ?

[see weed]

ZEL should do the right thing and pay the 7c div to the shareholders bank accounts on 8/12/21. Feels like being held to ransom the way they are doing it:t_down:.
Correction to the above. I have just talked to ASB Securities, Z Energy and Link Services. Apparently ZEL shareholders will be paid out 7c div. on 8/12/21:t_up:.

[Getty]

ZEL sort of expressed frustration as to 'slow'progress in sorting out NZR

October 31 deadline for agreeing how the new model will work has passed with no agreement

You would be better off backing the racehorse Dundeel for a done deal.

When he goes to the service station, he gets paid $66000 per service.

Nice work if you can get it!

Speedy as, too.
,

[winner69]

When is the Independent Report due

Probably say fair range $3.50 to $3.90 so all hunky dory

[Yeet_Shares]

I'm sure an announcement will be due soon. RNZ strategic review outcome was to convert to a terminal, with overwhelming ratification by it's share holders. There is no other direction for them. Throughout the entire review Government has put up absolutely no resistance.

[Beagle]

I'm sure an announcement will be due soon. RNZ strategic review outcome was to convert to a terminal, with overwhelming ratification by it's share holders. There is no other direction for them. Throughout the entire review Government has put up absolutely no resistance.


Energy Minister Megan Woods said in a Cabinet paper released on Tuesday there was “not a strong case to support the refinery’s operations on fuel security grounds”. But she said she was open to beginning discussions with Refining NZ on a loan or underwriting deal that could ensure the refinery stayed open for perhaps five or 10 years, citing “broader considerations”. Tuesday refers to this week.
Government are certainly muddying the waters, maybe they will appoint a working party ;)
This isn't over until the fat lady sings. It would be a good look for Govt (and my goodness don't they need some good news) if they secured our ability to refine fuel and thwarted a takeover of the N.Z. company on national security grounds.
Takeover could also be declined by Overseas investment office on any number of grounds...keep in mind that these bureaucrats are not immune to the extreme left leaning political climate which we currently endure.

Takeover thwarted and back to $2.70 ?

[see weed]

Tuesday refers to this week.
Government are certainly muddying the waters, maybe they will appoint a working party ;)
This isn't over until the fat lady sings. It would be a good look for Govt (and my goodness don't they need some good news) if they secured our ability to refine fuel and thwarted a takeover of the N.Z. company on national security grounds.
Takeover could also be declined by Overseas investment office on any number of grounds...keep in mind that these bureaucrats are not immune to the extreme left leaning political climate which we currently endure.

Takeover thwarted and back to $2.70 ?
I only wished you told us that before you sold your shares:mellow:.

[Beagle]

I only wished you told us that before you sold your shares:mellow:.

Its only just come out this week mate. I may have got a bit lucky.

[malreid]

Throughout the entire review Government has put up absolutely no resistance.Is that faint noise the sound of government issue flip-flops coming down the corridor? This lot are going to desperate to get something actually accomplished, for better or worse other than breaking Auckland, before the next vote comes around.

[Yeet_Shares]

It's not going to happen, theres no appetite nor justifications to keep it open. Even now when it's probably making some money due to higher margins it'll still close down. In addition, It's closure will conveniently align to governments direction on reducing carbon emotions + return a heap of unused power back to grid further reducing carbon emissions. There may even be some excess power to charge your EV without burning coal.

[sb9]

Sold out completely on results day after listening to investor conf call, did not find any compelling reason to hold further.

[Balance]

Is that faint noise the sound of government issue flip-flops coming down the corridor? This lot are going to desperate to get something actually accomplished, for better or worse other than breaking Auckland, before the next vote comes around.

Really?

And completely throw all pretence of their ‘green’ credentials by supporting an old, inefficient, run down and heavy crude refinery with taxpayers’ funds?

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/126866243/government-decided-not-to-follow-through-on-idea-of-talks-to-save-refinery

The Cabinet decided not to follow through on the idea of talks to try to save the Marsden Point oil refinery by underwriting the refinery for a period of up to 10 years, it has been confirmed.

[see weed]

Really?

And completely throw all pretence of their ‘green’ credentials by supporting an old, inefficient, run down and heavy crude refinery with taxpayers’ funds?

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/126866243/government-decided-not-to-follow-through-on-idea-of-talks-to-save-refinery

The Cabinet decided not to follow through on the idea of talks to try to save the Marsden Point oil refinery by underwriting the refinery for a period of up to 10 years, it has been confirmed.
Well that's all good. Sold half my holding 2 weeks ago and bought them back again last week. $3.78 here we come, not to mention the 7c div due into my bank account on 8/12/21:).

[winner69]

Punters getting worried about the outcome

Gone 7 cents ex divie ...... was that a part payment of takeover price?

Share price heading to 350 odd

[Beagle]

Electric car makers Rivian and Lucid going gangbusters! Now bigger than Ford and GM!!

Government banning fuel car imports in 2025, then completely gone 20 years later.

By 2025 it will be cheaper to run an electric car than petrol.

Seriously, I couldn't think of anything more dead than a petrol station. Sure, there's probably 10 years of positive returns but then what???

ZEL got lucky with this takeover. Until the money is in the bank I'd be sweating if I were a shareholder!



Got a link for that ?

[Arthur]

I'm pro BEV, but expect electrification will take close to 15 years to do much damage to fuels sales. Vehicles being bought now will still be around in 20 years.

[bull....]

electric vehicles cost too much for the average punter.

[Arthur]

Give it two years and total cost of ownership will be lower and possibly retail price as well.

[Beagle]

I'm pro BEV, but expect electrification will take close to 15 years to do much damage to fuels sales. Vehicles being bought now will still be around in 20 years.

I agree and also note ZEL do huge volumes for the trucking (and in normal times), the aviation industry. Sunset industry but its going to be a VERY long sunset.
I am sure Ampol have done their sums correctly and will bring a lot of synergies to bear with their supply chain efficiencies but the question is will politics, the national interest or Iwi interfere with this takeover ? Is the overseas investment office truly independent from the radical woke extreme left currently in power ? Pretty easy for them to say overseas ownership of Z (with its fairly dominant market position with the Caltex brand as well), and the refining issue, (should we really be totally reliant on overseas refiners ?), is not in the national interest. I think this scheme of arrangement is likely to succeed but its not a done deal yet, not by a long way.

[dreamcatcher]

Or maybe 2045 or 2055 with change of govt who doesn't care about the greens who live in their own bubble. The world still uses coal don't we with its black polluting smoke. Imagine power shares will boom by spilling a few bucket over the dams to rocket those EV's can't do without them. Petrol cars could become the 'in thing' as oil dies petrol will be dirt cheap negative cost again perhaps as lack of demand. Refueling stations will become food courts with retail shops with amenities while you wait for your charge, big business. Wonder what size EV I will need to tow my 2:5 ton boat current tow wagon with steel chassis weights 2.8 ton. Should also ban flying as they pollute heaps unless a battery pack can be attached.

Anyway if can be stretched till 2045 I won't care less .............

[see weed]

Electric car makers Rivian and Lucid going gangbusters! Now bigger than Ford and GM!!

Government banning fuel car imports in 2025, then completely gone 20 years later.

By 2025 it will be cheaper to run an electric car than petrol.

Seriously, I couldn't think of anything more dead than a petrol station. Sure, there's probably 10 years of positive returns but then what???

ZEL got lucky with this takeover. Until the money is in the bank I'd be sweating if I were a shareholder!


That's all good, but what about all those old V8 classic cars? There is over a thousand of them that go to the Beach Hop at Whangamata every year. How are they going to get there with no petrol? Will they have to drop their V8 motors out and put in electric motors and have a recording of the rumbling old V8 motor under the bonnet? Ampol knows this and will raise the price as time goes on. Kiwis in the future will be complaining about the price of imported fuel to run their V8s...... How does $40 a liter sound? Are yes, Ampol know what they are doing. And all the profits going back to Aussi again. Also looking forward to 7c div. next month and reluctantly the $3.78 takeover plus 5c div or whatever next year.

[Simsee]

That's all good, but what about all those old V8 classic cars? There is over a thousand of them that go to the Beach Hop at Whangamata every year. How are they going to get there with no petrol? Will they have to drop their V8 motors out and put in electric motors and have a recording of the rumbling old V8 motor under the bonnet? Ampol knows this and will raise the price as time goes on. Kiwis in the future will be complaining about the price of imported fuel to run their V8s...... How does $40 a liter sound? Are yes, Ampol know what they are doing. And all the profits going back to Aussi again. Also looking forward to 7c div. next month and reluctantly the $3.78 takeover plus 5c div or whatever next year.
The large investments by the likes of NPD in stations are slowing down but not stopping. Those guys aren’t dumb. Fossil fuels will be with us for a long time to come.

[bull....]

Yeah the average new car lasts 15 years but once the transition starts (which is now) the decline will start from year one and get progressively worse.

The largest consumers would have the biggest incentive to change first, thus exacerbating the problem early on.

It doesn't take much change to skew the economics quickly.

Yeah the average punter can't afford electric now but the progressive government and additional pressure to hit new climate change targets will force punters to "take the hit" and transition before they would ideally want to. Social pressure will build too as more people go electric those that withhold will be outcast. Same with covid jabs etc, once the mass gets going everyone falls like sheep to avoid being outcast. IT'S NOT ONLY ABOUT ECONOMICS!!

social pressure aside if you dont have the means the only way you going to go electric is thru a big fat subsidy and for the really poor to be given one

[dibble]

If it were just cars the outlook would be at risk of flipping quite quickly, with one change of Govt (eg treble the tax). But oil is deeply embedded into the whole supply chain. Probably military as well. As long as those global requirements are in play (ie besides the more obvious planes) there will be plenty being sucked out of the earth so cost effective supply ought linger. And if retailers start to exit NZ, being the last one might be fruitful. Might....

Furthermore the E in ZEL is for energy not oil so there's no reason to be convinced it will simply be worth zero in 20 years.

[bull....]

gotta remember ampol want z sites not the petrol

[Poet]

EVs may or may not be the future - the jury is still out on that - it could go several different ways. But putting aside wishful thinking, there are some pretty serious roadblocks to a quick takeover by EVs

Current world production of cars is approximately 100m per year.

By 2030, the world will (with a very very strong tail wind) be able to produce 20m EVs - and that number is based on some pretty serious thinking about supply chains and resource constraints etc.

The price of an EV may or may not fall, a lot will depend on supply and demand of the various resources that go into the production. With increasing demand and limited supply, you'd want to lean towards prices rising wouldn't you?

One thing for certain, the governments of the world won't be subsidising everyone's EV in ten years from now.

Z has at least a 30 year runway from here, and even Z will be nimble enough to reposition in that timeframe. As usual, your Kiwi owners quick to startle and get tucked.

[Yeet_Shares]

At the current price I'm thinking about loading up some more. Ampol got a good deal here. Average age of nz car is around 12 -15 years. Pump prices are high, margins are even higher...Auckland about to be unleashed, refinery to shut. This is going to be a cash cow imo.

[Grimy]

If the deal goes through a cash cow for Ampol, not Z shareholders........

[ralph]

Totally why else would they be buying z neither company worries about shareholders really , its all about the Money!

If the deal goes through a cash cow for Ampol, not Z shareholders........

[winner69]

Interesting article on BusinessDesk



ComCom asks tough questions over Ampol's takeover of Z.

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/comcom-asks-tough-questions-over-ampols-takeover-of-z
Prob paywalled

Regulatory approval for Ampol’s $2 billion takeover of Z Energy may not be as straightforward as many seem to think, with the regulator questioning how it can be certain proposed arrangements will guarantee competition.

[bull....]

one of the key terms of the t/o crossed off

Z Energy welcomes final investment decision on ITS

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/383227

[Balance]

Interesting article on BusinessDesk



ComCom asks tough questions over Ampol's takeover of Z.

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/comcom-asks-tough-questions-over-ampols-takeover-of-z
Prob paywalled

Regulatory approval for Ampol’s $2 billion takeover of Z Energy may not be as straightforward as many seem to think, with the regulator questioning how it can be certain proposed arrangements will guarantee competition.

As they should - I pumped up my car at Gull over the weekend with 98 ($2.72 vs $2.93 at Z).

[ralph]

As they should - I pumped up my car at Gull over the weekend with 98 ($2.72 vs $2.93 at Z).
It may soon be the other way around Pumping up on the cheap at Z and getting my coffees at the wild bean still .

[winner69]

A few months passed since offer made. I bailed shortly after

But what will shareholders get now

Seeing the duration has shortened is 349 or lower a reasonable punt?

[Beagle]

A few months passed since offer made. I bailed shortly after

But what will shareholders get now

Seeing the duration has shortened is 349 or lower a reasonable punt?

I did the same and was wondering that myself but I think this will drag on well into 2022. Final end game about August or September I reckon and even then its not a sure thing.

Questions apparent.

Do you want to tie your capital up for that long for a really modest return ?

Is the Overseas Investment Office truly politically independent or does the extreme woke leftist Government's influence play a part in their final decision ?

Same question for the Commerce Commission ?

What about all the other hurdles this deal has to pass, for example will they find a buyer for Gull Petroleum ?

What's the downside if the deal fails for any reason, 50 cents, 70 cents, more ?

Isn't there a more productive home for my capital on a risk reward basis ?

I asked myself these questions and it doesn't really look like an attractive opportunity to me especially with the possible upside being quite modest.

[Yeet_Shares]

If it fails we end up with a company with a high chance of paying great future dividends. With margins on the rise and closure of the refinery I can see why they're trying to buy it...The average age of nz's vehical fleet is in the 10 - 15 year range, so even if we imported all electric right now it would take years to change the fleet out.
Electric car impact is years and years away and then there the larger vehicles for which there is no viable green solution.

[Poet]

Hmm, ZEL off 7c this morning with 400K shares traded. No obvious explanation

[see weed]

Poor little Z taking a wee hit this morning. Have sold down 34,000 so far this month at good profit, but might start buying back in if it goes any lower.

[Beagle]

Hmm, ZEL off 7c this morning with 400K shares traded. No obvious explanation

Hmmm... Market wondering about political influence on regulatory bodies affecting the chance this deal proceeds ?

[Balance]

Hmm, ZEL off 7c this morning with 400K shares traded. No obvious explanation

https://comcom.govt.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0024/274119/Ampol-Limited-and-Z-Energy-Limited-Statement-of-Issues-23-December-2021.pdf.pdf

Commerce Commission issued statement of issues last night.

Principal issue appears to be the divestment of Gull.

Trade sale off the agenda so it looks like an IPO but with Ampoil retaining (initially) a majority shareholding before further sell down.

Also, decision on application now deferred until mid March.

[Poet]

https://comcom.govt.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0024/274119/Ampol-Limited-and-Z-Energy-Limited-Statement-of-Issues-23-December-2021.pdf.pdf

Commerce Commission issued statement of issues last night.

Principal one appears to be the divestment of Gull.

Trade sale off the agenda so it looks like an IPO but with Ampoil retaining (initially) a majority shareholding before further sell down.

Thanks, you'd think that statement would require ZEL to make an announcement to the market and a short trading halt.

[ralph]

Totally agree Poet ,but an interesting I P O

[Beagle]

Thanks, you'd think that statement would require ZEL to make an announcement to the market and a short trading halt.

Its Mike Bennets we're talking about here lol....he'd be long gone to his holiday home many days ago.

[dreamcatcher]

The world could consumer more oil in 2022 then ever before.......for another purchaser to appear probably need all industries fully operating with borders open

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/12/23/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html

[dreamcatcher]

Large volume today nearly 11m

[Teatree]

Hmmmm see that the funds positioning themselves for an easy 20 odd cents?

[dreamcatcher]

NZ petrol prices already soared.............

"Petrol prices soar in Melbourne, Brisbane and Sydney"
Petrol prices: New Year bowser pinch in Melbourne, Brisbane and Sydney (thenewdaily.com.au) (https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/consumer/2022/01/12/petrol-prices-2022/)

[GlennS]

The article states: “Average daily prices at bowsers in Brisbane have skyrocketed 16.5 per cent to $1.75 per litre”. Wouldn’t that be a good problem for NZ motorists to have?


NZ petrol prices already soared.............

"Petrol prices soar in Melbourne, Brisbane and Sydney"
Petrol prices: New Year bowser pinch in Melbourne, Brisbane and Sydney (thenewdaily.com.au) (https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/consumer/2022/01/12/petrol-prices-2022/)

[Sideshow Bob]

Z Energy (ZEL) Q3FY33 Operating Data - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/386150)

Z Energy (NZX/ASX: ZEL) (“Z”) releases its operating data for the third quarter of FY22 and reaffirms FY22 RC EBITDAF guidance to be between $270m and $310m.

Commenting on the operating data Z’s CEO Mike Bennetts said, “Z’s strategy execution for the quarter was excellent. We have made progress across all four of our organic growth opportunities, in some cases well ahead of the trajectory to our FY24 targets.

Covid-19 related lockdowns in Auckland and other regions throughout the quarter, coupledwith high pump prices due to increased crude oil costs and weaker NZD exchange rates, has reduced retail volumes compared to the same quarter last year,” he added.

[dreamcatcher]

Nice to see upward movement in SP with shareholder meeting looming in February or March to approve Ampol offer. To pass half of all shareholders must vote and 75% of them would need to vote in favour of the takeover.

Need another buyer now.............

[bull....]

see in the australian the other day they say about dozen buyers in second round interested in buying gull

[dreamcatcher]

Nice if one of those 11 missed out bidders takes a bigger bite and pumps Ampol's offer

NZ opens border 27th Feb ..... just in time for Ampol

[Teatree]

Pockets might not be as deep as Ampol's. There does seem to be a lot of new Gull shops opening up tho. Must be worth a reasonable amount. Any numbers being bandied about?

[dreamcatcher]

600 million has been mentioned for Gull

[nztx]

ACC sold down their holding a bit, so they no longer have a substantial holding:

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ZEL/387452/364765.pdf

[Waiuta]

Others seem to be increasing theirs judging by the recent notices. Fingers crossed 🤞

[nztx]

Others seem to be increasing theirs judging by the recent notices. Fingers crossed ��


I have difficulty seeing a lot of good in the public interest coming out of Z being taken out
by Ampol , but MTCW

[Grimy]

About 5 weeks until the scheme of arrangement is meant to be sorted? 14 cents difference between today's closing and Ampol's price. Morgan Stanley certainly still busy judging by their disclosures.

[Mel]

Scheme meeting booklet
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/387911

[Grimy]

I bet Share Tank is getting topped up by a lot of people. I bought a few litres of both 91 and 95 a while back. Should have bought more.

[bull....]

ampol has informed the commerce commission a ipo will not be part of the divestment of gull process..... meaning a trade sale is most likely i assume

[theace]

Will there be a dividend paid in the next few months whilst they work through the sale process?

[Mel]

Will there be a dividend paid in the next few months whilst they work through the sale process?
Aside from the interim dividend that was paid on 8 Dec-21 (7 cents), any other dividends paid prior to the implementation date will decrease the amount of $3.76 per Z shares that shareholders receive.
The other item to note is:
For each calendar day that the date of implementation of the Scheme is after 31 March 2022, Shareholders on the Scheme Record Date will also be entitled to receive NZ$0.00055 per Z Share per day (up to a maximum of 10c per Z Share).

[Grimy]

Share price has narrowed to within 8 cents of take over offer.

[mcdongle]

Wonder what will happen to Z share price if Russian oil is banned as it will cause a worldwide shortage. And as countries scrabble for supplies how will we fare?

[Baa_Baa]

Wonder what will happen to Z share price if Russian oil is banned as it will cause a worldwide shortage. And as countries scrabble for supplies how will we fare?

NZ imports from Russia in 2020 were close to 20% of total.
13581
https://www.mbie.govt.nz/dmsdocument/16820-energy-in-new-zealand-2021

[Onion]

When does NZ (Marsden Point) move away from importing crude at all? Then will surely not care where the crude comes from because we'll just be getting Singapore refined.

[Grimy]

The arrival of the Torm Ingeborg at Marsden Point this weekend is the last shipment, carrying 90782 metric tonnes. From 1 News.

[nztx]

Is it too late to say "We want to keep Z Energy" to the AMPOL raiders ? ;)

[dreamcatcher]

Is it too late to say "We want to keep Z Energy" to the AMPOL raiders ? ;)

Big changes occurred since their bargain basement offer

[caveman]

Is it too late to say "We want to keep Z Energy" to the AMPOL raiders ? ;)

I voted against.

[nztx]

ZEL is being gifted to AMPOL at the lowball value they threw on the table IMO ;)

[ralph]

ZEL is being gifted to AMPOL at the lowball value they threw on the table IMO ;)
Who else would want it ,I am glad to be rid of it

[Jim]

A female from Computershare Australia rang me today regarding if I decide to vote in favor of the takeover by Ampol. I asked her to show me the colour of her money and I hung up.

[dreamcatcher]

A female from Computershare Australia rang me today regarding if I decide to vote in favor of the takeover by Ampol. I asked her to show me the colour of her money and I hung up.

Interesting I also received a missed call from Computershare but hit the redial lady said it wasn't them even though I explained its their number.

ZEL is Link services not Computershare maybe new offer coming..............
i

[dreamcatcher]

Anybody wish to speculate why Computershare phoning holders and not Link

New offer or shortfall of numbers ?

[Beagle]

Z will currently be making enormous profits selling fuel at current spot egregiously inflated prices based on raw material costs from months ago.

[dreamcatcher]

Z will currently be making enormous profits selling fuel at current spot egregiously inflated prices based on raw material costs from months ago.

And I take nothing extra returned to holders. Noticed numbers and SP cranking up last few weeks

[freddagg]

Anybody wish to speculate why Computershare phoning holders and not Link

New offer or shortfall of numbers ?

Ampol uses Computershare so I guess they are wanting us to vote for their offer

[Mel]

Update on sale of Gull business
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/388807

[bull....]

yep big hurdle cleared with the sale of gull

[Muse]

yep big hurdle cleared with the sale of gull

rats now I'll need to recycle this into some other non esg friendly investment - whats your pick bull?

[bull....]

rats now I'll need to recycle this into some other non esg friendly investment - whats your pick bull?

im not counting my loot till they pass the final hurdles but as for my recycling it is very difficult to find anything i like on the NZX at this point in time. why ? because the economy heading down and inflation is heading up and probably staying at elevated levels compared to the past... this might imply stag flation we will know in time ( the govt is starting to panic ie immigration settings relaxed , talk about opening up to tourists quicker etc trying to get some growth in there ) the play was energy and commodities but they have run hard so dont like chasing these things when they have already run hard. so it is a very hard question maybe ill hold some cash for opp's later on and see how everything pans out. made plenty of gains last few yrs so if this yr is lack lustre its not the end of the world.

[Southern Lad]

Commerce Commission has granted approval to Ampol provided Gull divestment occurs:

https://comcom.govt.nz/news-and-media/media-releases/2022/commission-grants-clearance-for-ampol-to-acquire-z-subject-to-divestment-of-gull

[theace]

Do we get any divies before we hand the keys over?

[Grimy]

Only if the process gets dragged out. And if they do pay a dividend the value of that is deducted from the settlement price. So in effect, no.

[bull....]

Do we get any divies before we hand the keys over?

your get another 5c if the deal isnt settled by end march



The Z Energy board has unanimously recommended Ampol's offer (https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/449767/ampol-make-2b-takeover-bid-for-z-energy) of $3.83 a share, which has been boosted by Ampol agreeing to the payment of 5 cents a share of the next dividend.
The deal values Z Energy at about $2 billion.
"The Z Board unanimously recommends that shareholders vote in favour of the scheme, subject to the scheme consideration being within or above the valuation
range specified by the independent advisor and in the absence of a superior proposal being made for Z," the company said in a statement.
The payout would increase by another 5 cents a share if the deal is not settled by the end of March next year.

[Grimy]

From the recent scheme of arrangement booklet.

Adjusting Permitted Dividends: On 8 December 2021, Z Energy paid an interim dividend of NZ$0.07 per Z Energy
Share.
If Z Energy pays any further dividends in respect of the financial year to 31 March 2022, the amount of such
dividend(s) will reduce the Scheme Consideration payable by Ampol.

[Bjauck]

Will this scheme result in all the consideration from the takeover being treated as a taxable dividend? As happened with (for example) NZ shareholders with respect to the take-over proceeds from the NZX listed Diligent Corporation (DIL) scheme about 5 years ago. The documentation does not disclose the taxation consequences for shareholders.

[Simsee]

Any ideas as to, provided the vote is sell, when the $ would hit our hot little hands? Thank you

[uravgtrader]

So, what's the consensus, yay or nay.

[Simsee]

So, what's the consensus, yay or nay. I’ve voted against but I think it’s gone. Big boys always win

[dreamcatcher]

Anybody else receive two emailed Link voting forms one had correct details other fake which wanted Hin & Fin for login

Check............

[Grimy]

No, I didn't. When did you receive those?

[dreamcatcher]

No, I didn't. When did you receive those?

Today both together from link the one not mine deleted as name different and wanted too much info for login

[Mel]

All but a done deal:
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/389525

[bull....]

All but a done deal:
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/389525

just overseas invest office left and my chq hopefully. prob allocate proceeds to cash % and some lindt choc easter bunnies

[IntheRearWithTheGear]

I lost on this about 13k, I bought to high at an avg of 5.30 about 2-3 years ago, with the value estimate being $8, due to the high dividend.

Got screwed with the commerce commission report about competition.

Got screwed with the share split due to covid, and then got screwed with the sale to the big boy club.

Live and learn.

Matches my name sake really, Bugger.

[Gonzoid]

Bought at 3.52 ( will break even) to offset my loss as too many times these buyouts left a bad taste in my mouth when I wasn't proactive when it became pretty certain the deal was going to happen!
Hard work though!

[lurna]

I lost on this about 13k, I bought to high at an avg of 5.30 about 2-3 years ago, with the value estimate being $8, due to the high dividend.

Got screwed with the commerce commission report about competition.

Got screwed with the share split due to covid, and then got screwed with the sale to the big boy club.

Live and learn.

Matches my name sake really, Bugger.

Live and learn is right, at least Ned Kelly had the decency to wear a mask.

[Mel]

Yes, i wish I had done that - will end up taking a bath on ZEL

[Cabinet]

Yes, me too. Sadly I bought at $6 and kept thinking they would improve - I should know better.

[malreid]

"Abby Foote Chair of Z Energy said, “The Boardwas unanimously in favour of this proposal, and it is pleasing to see such a high level ofshareholder support for the Scheme in terms of those voting in favour of the Schemeand the number of shareholders voting."

Yes Abby, it's called getting out when opportunity is presented to do so. Why what is effectively a vote against the current board and management should be pleasing is a mystery to me...

[Beagle]

I don't like Mike Bennett's chances of getting another senior role with an NZX listed company lol

[dreamcatcher]

Takeovers panel no objections, expecting OIO mid April seems done and busted end April...........2k loss :mad ;:

[Grimy]

Expected pay out on the 10th May.

[Beagle]

All over and ZEL will be delisted and removed from the NZX and come out of the NZX50.

Let the games and guesses commence on who will replace them in the NZX50 ?

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ZEL/391027/369282.pdf

[see weed]

Yes bye bye to Z, now wait for all the flash adds on tv on how good ZEL is and what NZers want to go to when fulling up. He He makes me laugh.:D They should of put the adds on before Ampol bought.

[caveman]

Lost a bit on this one... but on the bright side, we're no longer party to Russian propaganda by supporting Z energy...

[nztx]

Has the Fat Lady sung yet & kicked over the Ampol casket of coin for all those patient holders
hanging out for a bit more ? ;)

[Beagle]

Yes bye bye to Z, now wait for all the flash adds on tv on how good ZEL is and what NZers want to go to when fulling up. He He makes me laugh.:D They should of put the adds on before Ampol bought.

Z still running their TV advertisements that Z is for New Zealanders. Hmmm...I'm thinking that's really stretching the truth now. Okay there might be a few Kiwi's who are Ampol shareholders so its not an outright lie but, my goodness, its pretty close !

Interestingly they're also advertising that they're installing fast EV chargers at Z stations, something I've been suggesting for years. Oh well...Australians are now fleecing me at my local Z store...must be time to buy an EV and charge it at home :)

[Bjauck]

Z still running their TV advertisements that Z is for New Zealanders. Hmmm...I'm thinking that's really stretching the truth now. Okay there might be a few Kiwi's who are Ampol shareholders so its not an outright lie but, my goodness, its pretty close !

Interestingly they're also advertising that they're installing fast EV chargers at Z stations, something I've been suggesting for years. Oh well...Australians are now fleecing me at my local Z store...must be time to buy an EV and charge it at home :) Mostly foreign owned supermarkets, service stations and banks. Kiwi peasants have been trussed up nicely by overseas owners...

[peat]

CEO keeping his job and saying it adds resilience to their supply... generally talking it (Ampol ownership) up....
Owning Ampol could be where some of the funds could go , they are going to list on the NZX

[Getty]

Mostly foreign owned supermarkets, service stations and banks. Kiwi peasants have been trussed up nicely by overseas owners...

Yeah, well you all had a chance to change your flag, but decided to stay with an Aussie one with a couple of stars removed...

[clearasmud]

Maybe we should have a debate on that before it's too late.
We could negotiate a special deal for the first 10 years.
Benefits for Aussie Kiwis and a lower tax rate.

[Bjauck]

Yeah, well you all had a chance to change your flag, but decided to stay with an Aussie one with a couple of stars removed... Actually the NZ flag was designed in 1869, at least 30 years before the Australian competition to select theirs was held. The current Oz flag was officially adopted as their national flag in the 1950’s, replacing the British Union Flag.

[Bjauck]

CEO keeping his job and saying it adds resilience to their supply... generally talking it (Ampol ownership) up....
Owning Ampol could be where some of the funds could go , they are going to list on the NZX If NZer’s buy the future NZX listed Ampol shares, I think they will have to share the NZ imputation credits with all the existing Ampol ASX and NZX shareholders no matter where they are resident.

[clearasmud]

If NZer’s buy the future NZX listed Ampol shares, I think they will have to share the NZ imputation credits with all the existing Ampol ASX and NZX shareholders no matter where they are resident.
That's not how it works.
Only NZ residents will be offered the imputation credits.

[Bjauck]

That's not how it works.
Only NZ residents will be offered the imputation credits.
Are you sure? On my ANZ shares, The dividend includes both an imputation credit (a small percentage of the dividend declared) and an Australian Franking Credit (a much larger % of the dividend declared).

[clearasmud]

Pretty sure, It makes no sense to give imputation credits to holders who can't use them.

[nztx]

Look at the recently declared ANZ dividend

NZD Holders AU 72.0c + 9.0 c Imputation credits

AUST Holders AU 72.0c + 30.0% Australian Franking credit

No way is the NZ Imputation credit spread across whole Company Issued Capital

ASX ANZ Distribution Announcement:

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02517800-3A592965?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a3 9ff4

Compare this with their NZX Dividend Announcement filing for the same distribution