Wynyard Group capital raising?

[psychic]

Whoa, a trade for $867k goes through an hour before price 2nd price sensitive announcement for the day (Tatts Group)
Happy buyer but gee...

[benjitara]

Some nice announcements today. I'd like the fact that these new customers (tats) are contracted for three years. I see in their report that 3 customers they currently have make up 40% of total revenue so obviously its bloody important they keep expanding their client base to sure up the projected earnings. A interesting company to follow...

[Whitebeard]

Another win in the middle east..

https://www.wynyardgroup.com/news-and-events/wynyard-group-signs-leading-kingdom-of-bahrain-money-exchange/

[bowser]

Wyn continue to please me. They're the only recent tech stocks to list that continues to keep the market informed and make progress, even if the announcements are to be expected as normal business progression.

[Joshuatree]

Whats happened to WYN since the $2.70 cap raise folks? A lot of enthusiasm and bullishness on the threads back then; must be more than the tech selloff. Have been browsing the threads but don't know whats happened here.No profit warnings or downbeat updates; picking up more clients, not enough? Don't hold atp.

[couta1]

Whats happened to WYN since the $2.70 cap raise folks? A lot of enthusiasm and bullishness on the threads back then; must be more than the tech selloff. Have been browsing the threads but don't know whats happened here.No profit warnings or downbeat updates; picking up more clients, not enough? Don't hold atp.
See my post # 974 about sums things up, no good news is moving the prices on any of the tech stocks more than temporarily at the moment, you can't fight the seasons winter will take its own course:cool:

[couta1]

couta are you invested in WYN and what is your ave buy price, if you dont mind posting it.
Have sent you a pm.

[couta1]

Wyn testing that $2 mark bought a parcel at $2.10 couple of days ago thought that was a good price goes to show what effect the old negative global influence can have, shouldn't be more than a few weeks before they release another positive news snippet anyways.

[baller18]

you keep swimming aganist the tide huh couta? Not so sure if it's such a good idea...

[couta1]

you keep swimming aganist the tide huh couta? Not so sure if it's such a good idea...
Not at all worried just an observation of the $2 barrier being tested,$2.10 still good entry for this company and its bright future.

[tosspot]

No offence but thats what I was thinking to baller18. I used to do it so much. When A seemingly good stock was becoming unloved buy it because I would think people will wake up soon. But it becomes months and it messes with your head. No I tend to go with whats "hot". and play a bit more safe. You cannot beat the market alone.

[blobbles]

The tide sure is going out for WYN. But why? They have an excellent suite of products and are growing like mad... a year or three I suspect they will have 100m+ in revenue and solid profits. The market is huge, relatively untapped and they appear to be leading the game at the moment (from people I have chatted to anyway). Might even go work for them as an IT guy if they are hiring...

[goldfish]

I think hes mad, but each to there own.

[blackcap]

Wyn testing that $2 mark bought a parcel at $2.10 couple of days ago thought that was a good price. shouldn't be more than a few weeks before they release another positive news snippet anyways.

I have abbreviated your initial post somewhat. But it is worrying to me that these seem to be your investing metrics. Ie thought is was a good price and positive news should be released soon. Why did you think it was a good price? What if negative news is released, what if the price keeps sliding? How much positive news is already priced into the share price? It is not beyond the realms of possibility that WYN is at $1.00 in 12 months time, or even 50 cents. (not that I think it will be but the market is the market and strange things can happen) I have seen a lot worse. If this "global negativity" as you have coined it continues it could be very brutal on some NZ stocks. For what its worth I do not think a global meltdown is imminent but do think the NZ market is pretty much fully priced and its hard to see value anywhere. Couta1 I really do worry about your investing methods though and I hope you keep learning but please try and retain your capital. Capital preservation is paramount.

[couta1]

Cheers blackcap,haven't lost anymore capital for quite a while now have learnt heaps alright, I'm sitting on some large historic paper losses which I don't intend to realize any time soon, will see how they look in a couple of years fortunately grit,determination and patience are all traits I've learnt over the years from other pursuits I've followed:cool:

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Not long ago people were being considered fools if they weren't holding PEB because they might miss an announcement. Announcements came and now the price is half what it was. Hope is not a good strategy.

[sharp]

Not long ago people were being considered fools if they weren't holding PEB because they might miss an announcement. Announcements came and now the price is half what it was. Hope is not a good strategy.

Better off buying lotto if you are investing blind hoping for a positive announcement.

[Tsuba]

This company seems to be quite consistant with good announcements so is the state of play here more to do with the Lemming effect. :confused:

[Tsuba]

Instead of giving couta1 a hard time how about my simple question. :cool:

[couta1]

Clueless aye SC. He that hearls insults at someone they've never met does not exhibit a great deal of intelligence now does one.

[Joshuatree]

Full year forecast Rev circa $31 million (2013 $21.7 mill , net loss AT $11.2 mill)

.."sales execution in 2H critical". I haven't seen any updates?

Mkt cap $231 million. I like the sector, will watch with int. Hope its good for holders.

[bmrm]

Be VERY careful out there people:

"By and large financial markets took Yellen’s comments in stride because her commentary is essentially a continuation of what she’s said before, Weaver said. One stock market sector, however, was pummeled by something Yellen wrote, rather than said.

“The only thing, and it wasn’t in her oral comments but in her written testimony, was where she made mention of biotech and social media (stocks’ valuations) getting stretched. And there was a quick response by those stocks. It’s very unusual for her to get to that level of specifics,” she said.

Many of those stocks fell sharply on her written testimony. Yellen also singled out concerns about high-yield products and leveraged loans but those didn’t see the same type of selling."

Good work shopping that quote across every security on this forum that even slightly resembles Yelp, notwithstanding that anyone with even a passing interest in the market will have seen already this morning. Pretty long bow to draw to conflate Wynyard with 'biotech and social media', suggests perhaps an ignorance about this company on your own part?

[miner]

Hi guys,been a long time since I posted on this site and even longer since I've held any shares but my partner has just inherited some of these so was wondering what people who aren't in love with them think .

Looking at the chart that big spike up is a bit of a worry,as in are we now doing the slow drift back down to where it started ?,have seen lots do similar in the past .

Cheers
miner

[miner]

Thanks for that snapiti,looking at the chart they have done the old announcement run with everyone jumping on so they don't miss it,then double top and now drifting back down to there real price-value,what there actually worth,then probably level out there,short of more announcement runs.

So the question is what are they actually worth,share price wise ?.

Lack of clients is a worry as in loose a contract or two and...or the competition catch up ...etc .

Cheers
Miner

[Harvey Specter]

Hi guys,been a long time since I posted on this site and even longer since I've held any shares but my partner has just inherited some of these so was wondering what people who aren't in love with them think .Your partner is definitely overweight.

Good for a speculative stock but you have already missed the re-rating that was obvious to come post IPO so I would definitely reduce.

[blobbles]

One must remember that they have ~$44m in the bank now, I rate their chances highly with this sort of war chest in an under developed market.

They have very good products and a professional services team that is performing very well.

As to how easy it is to copy? It IS possible some of their team will defect and set up a competing company, but I assume they have non competition contract clauses. Basically what the software appears to do is collate an absolute massive tonne of data and use database techniques to make matches and links between data sets. This can be everything from metadata (e.g. Person x called person z 10 times, person z always seems to call person y within 10 mins of their conversation and person y is a known terrorist therefore you should be worried about person x) to data content such as financial information (e.g. person x keeps paying company z for services rendered, but company z has a director with the same address as person x, therefore there is fraud as person x is paying himself for services rendered... I know for a fact this sort of big data querying is done by financial accounting firms in NZ). While this sort of system sounds easy to set up, after you present such systems with a massive amount of data, they can then be tuned further an further to start making some very clever leaps of logic (and sometimes very stupid). With the addition of people controlling the system they become massive learning systems able to render potential links (meaning fraud/terrorism/whatever) with higher accuracy and greater sensitivity. Basically, the longer they are in the game, the harder they will be to compete against, kind of like google now making all other search engine results look rather pathetic by comparison.

Oh - this is my understanding of how their software works, but I may be wrong. I have only talked to people that are aware of the software, not the actual users!

[winner69]

Somebody asked on twitter if they do business in Israel and the answer was an (emphatic) no

[blobbles]

Oh and if you aren't aware of what they do, the ENRON video is a good starting point showing a very simple investigative method for sorting wheat from chaff.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UqGzBo3o_Ew

[miner]

Your partner is definitely overweight.

Good for a speculative stock but you have already missed the re-rating that was obvious to come post IPO so I would definitely reduce.

Them's fighting words Harvey:mad ;: , shes actually a little hottie :)and as her new share adviser if i f*ck it up it'll be the couch for me:t_down: .

I think they have potential but just don't like big spike charts and think it could easily drift back a bit for a while,and my couch isn't that comfy:( .

[Harvey Specter]

Them's fighting words Harvey:mad ;: , shes actually a little hottie :).oops - taken out of context I swear :blush:. I am glad to hear. :t_up:

[bmrm]

Drift down continues, now solidly sub $2.00. Half year preliminary results due out by the end of the month so that should consolidate the price somewhere at least. Will have to be pretty stellar to have a positive impact as a lot of growth expectation is presumably priced-in.

Disc. Bought in at IPO so still a happy chap.

[Harvey Specter]

Drift down continues, now solidly sub $2.00. Half year preliminary results due out by the end of the month so that should consolidate the price somewhere at least. Will have to be pretty stellar to have a positive impact as a lot of growth expectation is presumably priced-in.

Disc. Bought in at IPO so still a happy chap.Not sure if it is because they went up to quickly (most likely) or holders getting up set because the continual updates that came early on seem to have dried up. Everything I have seen shows them still executing to plan so hopefully any dip is just a short term correction before it starts an upward trend (at a more realistic rate than last time).

[bmrm]

they went up to quickly (most likely)

This is my thought as well, they certainly seem to be on track or even slightly ahead in terms of execution, just a question of how overly exuberant that initial rise was.

[bmrm]

VERY exuberant! A certain Fed Chairmans speech rings a bell...

Lol Moosie's one data point for the month strikes again.

[Harvey Specter]

Sam Morgan has been accumulating. Has hit 5% (from 3% at year end)

[sb9]

Sam Morgan @samfromwgtn Follow (https://twitter.com/samfromwgtn) Proud to now be a substantial shareholder in Wynyard. Might just be the next Xero. https://www.nzx.com/companies/WYN/announcements/253878 (https://t.co/Fj1TZ5fLBZ)

Great support from Sam..

[sb9]

Agreed, but it's good endorsement by someone who understands the tech world...Wyn is in a sector very unique with huge growth potential.

[freddagg]

Agreed, but it's good endorsement by someone who understands the tech world...Wyn is in a sector very unique with huge growth potential.
You cannot have degrees of "unique". It either is unique or it isn't unique.

[lastmoa]

In didn't say it, Peter Lynch did.

Fancy a multi-billion dollar hedge fund manager gibing a Kiwi tech guru financial advice eh?


Large hedgefund or not ... doesn't mean they understand the tech sector and potential of certain stocks. Think Sam has some expertise here.

[bowser]

Well it appears Sam has had a very positive influence on the buy depth this morning!

[bmrm]

Well it appears Sam has had a very positive influence on the buy depth this morning!
Indeed!
~45,000 above $2.00

[PJK]

Notwithstanding the huge financial success that Sam Morgan made with TradeMe - I'm struggling to identify him as some sort of tech guru that means anything and everything that sells on a computer is within his realm of expertise.

TradeMe has average software right throughout the site. Sam Morgan's skills were in getting TradeMe pitched right into the psyche of New Zealanders and making it a desirable alternative to flea markets and garage sales. He built a good team of people around him, and got the ethos of the site right. It's been clear since his departure that TradeMe is moving away from that, losing it's shine and the share price is suffering. So he's clearly a good businessman.

Wynyard is miles away from the Trademe space - it's crime analytics software not consumer goods. It's created and sold / leased to clients. I don't think that Mr Morgan has any special insight as to what it will take for Wynyard to succeed in this area. Yes it's software - and he uses software sometimes on his computer I imagine - but that's about the end of the connection.

Mr Morgan's wealth is estimated at $305m (according to the recent rich list) and his total holding here is around 5.5m shares (to be just over 5% holding) and 3% of his estimated wealth. Sure it's a significant holding for us - but he bought 3% at IPO price - and appears to have been buying the rest on it's way down. His latest purchase was 250,000 at 1.90 ... suggesting that a further 2.2m shares have been bought at prices of 2.xx. He's not some sort of guru-like bellwether investor.

Wynyard IPOed at $1.15, leapt to $3.00 on madness within a fortnight and has spent the next six months slowly trending back towards 2.00 and now continues to head down to it's IPO price. That's not surprising given the lack of tangible announcements and details.

Is 1.90 cheap? Well it's cheaper than $3.00 (ouch!) and it's cheaper than it's been through most of it's existence on the NZX. Like most software companies it leapt on exuberance and now the question is when profits might arrive - or at least losses reduce. The last numbers I saw were estimating $21m revenue for a $10m loss.

Wynyard has some big names as clients, it has won some recent software awards, it's not a fly-by-night group at all, that's not what I'm saying. But at a share price of 1.90 that makes it's market cap about $220m which for a company with $21m revenue (and net losses) makes me think REALLY???
;)

Perhaps it is a good 5-year hold and wait purchase and the valuations will prove to make sense. Perhaps ...

DISC : Not holding - but always looking in this NZX tech segment and hoping to find a company that gets somewhere out of the hyped cloud and somewhere near profits.

[PJK]

Indeed. I should have said IPO'ed at 1.15 and sat for 6 months BEFORE leaping to 3.00 within a fortnight. With the fundamentals it had at the time I see why it sat there. Then tech thrall seemed to take over the NZX.

Savvy at 1.15? Probably in hindsight. Whether all the trading at 2xx to 3.xx is still as savvy is up for debate - although I do take your point that Sam Morgan is not one to "take a punt" with $3 million. However, for every XRO investment there is a Pacific Fibre in the cupboard too.

I guess my points were that Sam Morgan's increased investment is no magic stamp for success, and that this share price has been higher and lower and market cap still seems excessive to me.

[Longhaul]

I guess my points were that Sam Morgan's increased investment is no magic stamp for success, and that this share price has been higher and lower and market cap still seems excessive to me.

Fair point. But I think he mixes with some VERY savvy investors and tech leaders, so I don't just think he is drawing on his own experience.

I wouldn't buy WYN while it's in a downtrend, so it remains to be seen whether Sam's endorsement is enough to reverse the current trend. (I imagine we'll see some good news released in the next 2 weeks.)

[BlackPeter]

Notwithstanding the huge financial success that Sam Morgan made with TradeMe - I'm struggling to identify him as some sort of tech guru that means anything and everything that sells on a computer is within his realm of expertise.

TradeMe has average software right throughout the site. Sam Morgan's skills were in getting TradeMe pitched right into the psyche of New Zealanders and making it a desirable alternative to flea markets and garage sales. He built a good team of people around him, and got the ethos of the site right. It's been clear since his departure that TradeMe is moving away from that, losing it's shine and the share price is suffering. So he's clearly a good businessman.

Wynyard is miles away from the Trademe space - it's crime analytics software not consumer goods. It's created and sold / leased to clients. I don't think that Mr Morgan has any special insight as to what it will take for Wynyard to succeed in this area. Yes it's software - and he uses software sometimes on his computer I imagine - but that's about the end of the connection.

Mr Morgan's wealth is estimated at $305m (according to the recent rich list) and his total holding here is around 5.5m shares (to be just over 5% holding) and 3% of his estimated wealth. Sure it's a significant holding for us - but he bought 3% at IPO price - and appears to have been buying the rest on it's way down. His latest purchase was 250,000 at 1.90 ... suggesting that a further 2.2m shares have been bought at prices of 2.xx. He's not some sort of guru-like bellwether investor.

Wynyard IPOed at $1.15, leapt to $3.00 on madness within a fortnight and has spent the next six months slowly trending back towards 2.00 and now continues to head down to it's IPO price. That's not surprising given the lack of tangible announcements and details.

Is 1.90 cheap? Well it's cheaper than $3.00 (ouch!) and it's cheaper than it's been through most of it's existence on the NZX. Like most software companies it leapt on exuberance and now the question is when profits might arrive - or at least losses reduce. The last numbers I saw were estimating $21m revenue for a $10m loss.

Wynyard has some big names as clients, it has won some recent software awards, it's not a fly-by-night group at all, that's not what I'm saying. But at a share price of 1.90 that makes it's market cap about $220m which for a company with $21m revenue (and net losses) makes me think REALLY???
;)

Perhaps it is a good 5-year hold and wait purchase and the valuations will prove to make sense. Perhaps ...

DISC : Not holding - but always looking in this NZX tech segment and hoping to find a company that gets somewhere out of the hyped cloud and somewhere near profits.

Hi PJK, good post (but the minor technical issue related to the timing of the peak). Welcome to Sharetrader and to this thread!

You will notice quite soon that some posters react quite defensive if anybody questions the value of their investment - particularly so on threads of so called growth stocks (like WYN, PEB, DIL, XRO, ...), but this shouldn't stop you to ask the right questions. There are a lot of people around reading these threads who want to get more than just hot air (pushing the bubble up-hill) from this forum, and for them posts like yours are really useful.

My view on WYN? I think it is a good company in a growth market with huge potential. Looking at fundamentals (though difficult with a loss making start up) like earnings, P/S, they feel currently too dear, but there is obviously nothing you can't fix by bumping the assumed sales growth into the sky.

Looking into the charts (not that I am a specialist) I would as well wait until the trend turns, though that's obviously more difficult if you need to invest millions like Sam Morgan - his investment decisions can't follow the trend, they might shape it.

Discl: Currently not holding (and watching).

[BlackPeter]

Wow - up to 212, but now falling again. Shall we call it the Sam Morgan peak?;)

[bmrm]

$10.00 by Christmas ┗(°0°)┛ you heard it here first.

In all seriousness though, reaction to the half year next week will be interesting to watch.

[bmrm]

$1.50 by Xmas. You heard it here first ;)

To be fair that is pretty close to my actual expectation too.

[Mr Tommy]

Todays DomPost

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/10403023/Sex-offender-tracking-contract-awarded-to-Wynyard

[psychic]

not that long ago(last week) most on this thread agreed that the WYN's capital raising was going to be so over subscribe it was hardly worth the punt and thats was at $2.70 a share.
Yesterday you could buy the stock for 2.40 and plenty of it.
nothing has changed with the company so I bought yesterday and are very pleased at the price.
At the end of the day fear and greed rule the sharemarket and yesterday was a classic example of fear.

Still , nothing has changed. Yet now you think it is grossly overvalued?
What did the insto's see when they pumped in $30m at $2.70? And Milford?
Can you collectively have been that wrong?

[Xerof]

Everyone seems to have forgotten, the likes of WYN, PEB, XRO etc all got bid to levels of stupidity early this year, and ALL have come back to earth.

It's easy in hindsight..........and the view is distorted when underwater......

hold a small lot at $2.40

[lastmoa]

We've just re-entered the atmosphere but are still in the stratosphere though with valuations. Still a long way to fall back to earth.

For those looking to know how long it takes for bubbles to deflate, just go to Yahoo Finance and pull up a view of Nasdaq from 1996-2003. Macro environment here is still strong, but what if it fell over tomorrow? Ouch is what...

Kinda disagree woth you here, Moosie and co. If you are a 'trader' and in for a short while and/or purely looking at technicals then xro and wyn do aome overvalued. But there are VERY few coys in aust/nz that have so much global potential and I think Sam/Thiel have explored more here. All it will take is WYN to announce some USA break and it will be goodbye to current SP. I would rather be locked in for the long term train ride than worry about a 0.50c sway on WYN or a few bucks for XRO.
But then again, we all have different 'investing' styles and knowledge. I mainly back my tech knowledge/background and what I see for future with these and others. Exciting times.

[False Profit]

Kinda disagree woth you here, Moosie and co. If you are a 'trader' and in for a short while and/or purely looking at technicals then xro and wyn do aome overvalued. But there are VERY few coys in aust/nz that have so much global potential and I think Sam/Thiel have explored more here. All it will take is WYN to announce some USA break and it will be goodbye to current SP. I would rather be locked in for the long term train ride than worry about a 0.50c sway on WYN or a few bucks for XRO.
But then again, we all have different 'investing' styles and knowledge. I mainly back my tech knowledge/background and what I see for future with these and others. Exciting times.

I understand you completely but my dopamine levels doubled when I thought of WYN going up by 50c in the short term!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[psychic]

Pretty much in line with forecasts provided at cap raising. can't say they don't have a pretty good grasp of how business will grow.
My average prob a bit like yours at $1.65, will sit tight I think

[bmrm]

I dont think the market will like this report..... 10.5m in revenue for the 6 months, booked a larger loss.
Looking forward they are expecting full year revenue's of about 30m due to the timing of some contracts.
My favorite shares are looking very expensive today... hope the market does not agree.

I completely agree with you on the results, however someone with an order in this morning appears not to!

[Onion]

Revenue seems to be flat (HY14 $10.1m vs. FY13 $21.7), but expenses are rising (HY14 Net loss $10.2m vs. FY13 $11.2m).

They forecast the second half revenue to be TWICE that of the first half -- quite some acceleration!

[Harvey Specter]

Revenue seems to be flat (HY14 $10.1m vs. FY13 $21.7), but expenses are rising (HY14 Net loss $10.2m vs. FY13 $11.2m).

They forecast the second half revenue to be TWICE that of the first half -- quite some acceleration!They should have pretty much all that increase in the pipeline already so must be reasonably confident (give the size of the contracts a less than 6 month turn around time would be unusual).

They are executing to prospectus so no shock there, thought they are trading at 2x IPO so maybe some pull back from those who thought they were doing better.

[bmrm]

I dont think a $5000 pre market order is anything to go by.
I will be selling down a few

You're right of course, and its been pulled now at any rate.

[psychic]

They should have pretty much all that increase in the pipeline already so must be reasonably confident (give the size of the contracts a less than 6 month turn around time would be unusual).

They are executing to prospectus so no shock there, thought they are trading at 2x IPO so maybe some pull back from those who thought they were doing better.

Agree HS, and at say 75% of recent Cap Raise price.

H2 2014 will be more telling and is obviously off to the right start with a new $2.5m contract in month 1 (jul) and confirmed sales in pipeline.

FY2014 $29-32m and $47m FY2015.

If milford sells, i'm out . But otherwise seems on track

[benjitara]

A tough stock to get a grasp on when you consider their revenues are not linked to each-other but are one off, fixed, term contracts. Market share could only be defined once the size of contracts is made public... Re-occurring revenues are about the only guidance as to future earnings and to be honest 65% would want to increase by some margin I'd imagine. I like their placement in the market but it's a hard stock to get excited about at the current SP

[LegendOfRiot]

Some more news this morning:
Wynyard and NZ Police announce partnership (https://www.nzx.com/companies/WYN/announcements/254497)

[False Profit]

Some more news this morning:
Wynyard and NZ Police announce partnership (https://www.nzx.com/companies/WYN/announcements/254497)

Not so long ago news like this - any news in fact - would have got the sp moving up at a spike. Not today it would appear. Maybe price is currently a fair value and it'll take something big to get people noticing this once 'darling' of the NZX50 again.

Disc - holding and expecting great things from WYN.

[benjitara]

This may have been the contract signed just within half yearly reporting period so I'm not surprised the SP has been flat on the announcement. The revenue figures for the half year must have put people off as well...

[sb9]

Wow, big volume through today, almost 2.8 ml shares traded through. Anyone has some info on the same, thx.

[BFG]

Wow, big volume through today, almost 2.8 ml shares traded through. Anyone has some info on the same, thx.

Sammie realised he wasn't going to get a Xero-like return and that he's not the Thiel of NZ within 2 months of buying?

[bmrm]

Sammie realised he wasn't going to get a Xero-like return and that he's not the Thiel of NZ within 2 months of buying?

It seems Sam Morgan isn't quite so pessimistic as you: https://www.nzx.com/companies/WYN/announcements/256245

[BFG]

It seems Sam Morgan isn't quite so pessimistic as you: https://www.nzx.com/companies/WYN/announcements/256245

Probably not nearly as sarcastic either!

[sb9]

Large volume thro' again today, almost 725K shares traded. Mr Morgan buying again?? might see a disclosure tomorrow.

[BFG]

Large volume thro' again today, almost 725K shares traded. Mr Morgan buying again?? might see a disclosure tomorrow.

Would suggest Mr Morgan stop buying if he is the sole person propping the SP. See NZO thread for what happens when one buyer just keeps buying. It has to finish at some point (unless he wants to buy WYN outright).

[sb9]

It'll be helpful if they can quantify estimated revenue from each of these new contracts. Even if a ball park figure....

[sb9]

Thanks for that Snapiti.
This has been raised with management, at the AGM i think.....
Their reply to this was that they are having to tender for most contracts and believe announcing contract values to the market would be detrimental to the business(which I think is fair enough)

[BFG]

Which arm of NZ Police do Wynyard work with? No doubt they had a hand in catching fugitive Smith after a mere few days what with all the calls to his lawyer crossing the Pacific and his use of social media!

[Harvey Specter]

Which arm of NZ Police do Wynyard work with? No doubt they had a hand in catching fugitive Smith after a mere few days what with all the calls to his lawyer crossing the Pacific and his use of social media!i think it was old school. Gave photos to hotels and hostels. Worker recognised and phoned police.

[dingoNZ]

i think it was old school. Gave photos to hotels and hostels. Worker recognised and phoned police.


The hostel front office worker recognized him from the news (they were staying in a tourist spot with a lot of internationals, not the smartest play by Smith to be honest).

On WYN, fantastic announcement yesterday, I suspect with this being taken up by the Thai government may may lead to other ASEAN countries jumping on board.

DISC: Not a holder but looking for a buying opportunity.

[Ginger_steps_]

Not holding at present (house deposit was needed) however I do want to pick these guys up again. My thought is that if they continue to gain high profile clients they will be more desirable to huge entities such as US Government. Now as Wynyard have previously stated they don't disclose some new contacts as they are sensitive - so if Wynyard were to pick up a US federal contract, am I correct in thinking that we wouldn't know until they report a huge increase in revenue??

[Ginger_steps_]

well if it is like nearly every other company listed I think we would see an unexplained big lift in share price(leaky ship syndrome) Suppose so! Although, considering their field of expertise, hopefully they would be able to actually keep sensitive information private!

[lastmoa]

Latest news out. They seem to be building a nice team and building, building :

GENERAL: WYN: Former GCHQ Deputy Director Cyber Defence Joins Wynyard

Auckland and London, 17 November 2014 - Wynyard Group a market leader in
crime fighting software used in investigations and intelligence operations
has appointed Andrew France OBE, former Deputy Director of Cyber Defence
Operations at British Intelligence Agency GCHQ to the position of Strategic
Advisor Intelligence.
A technology and intelligence leader with a distinguished career, France
spent the last years of his GCHQ career developing and delivering a national
cyber defence strategy as part of a mission to protect the United Kingdom
from cyber threats.

Sophisticated cyber threats have become increasingly prevalent and now top
the list of concerns for Wynyard government and corporate customers around
the world.
Wynyard Group Chief Executive Officer, Craig Richardson said Wynyard has
responded by extending its advanced crime analytics software solution into
cyber-intelligence and information-driven security.
"Our customers are increasingly concerned with managing risk, protecting
sensitive data, intellectual property and critical computer-operated
infrastructures against threats and disruption from organised crime
syndicates and state-sponsored actors."
Richardson said securing France was a coup for the company that has focused
on attracting industry experts to help support its customers and advance its
market leading technology.
"Andy has deep experience working with governments and private companies
across the world to keep information, technology and critical national
infrastructures safe. His risk management and intelligence experience will be
invaluable to Wynyard and our customers."
France joins a stable of industry talent now working with Wynyard including
former Commander of the London Metropolitan Police Homicide and Serious Crime
Group Dave Johnston, former Executive Assistant Director FBI Louis Grever and
former Assistant Secretary at the US Office of Homeland Security Louis
Quijas.
France will be based in Wynyard Group's London office and will work across
Wynyard's operations in the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and
the UAE.

[Baa_Baa]

nice new European client on board but a warning on revenue guidance.... interesting

Yes interesting, ambiguously worded as well. A soft sp for longer may result, which moi will take advantage of and continue to accumulate.

[bunter]

Wynyard announces major win...it may not meet its $29-$32 million guidance range for FY14

[BFG]

Wynyard announces major win...it may not meet its $29-$32 million guidance range for FY14

Now the questions are, will Milfie continue to sell on fears of a DIL debacle? And will Mr Morgans Jasmine fund continue to prop the SP?

I've been waiting for a more realistic SP. This may be the catalyst for it.

Accumulate on the dips and sell on the big contract announcements :)

[winner69]

WYN latest announcement bit like the Canterbury farmer I heard on the radio this morning 'the weather man says it'll rain next week but it doesn't come, it's always next week'

Maybe in WYNs case it will be a case of 'it never rains but it pours'

[lastmoa]

WYN latest announcement bit like the Canterbury farmer I heard on the radio this morning 'the weather man says it'll rain next week but it doesn't come, it's always next week'

Maybe in WYN's case it will be a case of 'it ever rains but it pours'

Could the media paint today's Wynyard news in a more negative light? :

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/64656920/last-gasp-contract-win-for-wynyard

Hello. They won a major(ish) contract and yet the media focusses (again) on the chance of them missing their earnings expectations even though he SP now had reflected them possibly missing, by dipping recently.
Last gasp .... please. The media did the same with Xero recently - trumpeting that they were the worst performer in the NZX50 for 2014, even though they are up upteen percent from their IPRO price in very short period.
Not all of us are traders, or short-sighted people.
The media are sure quick to trumpet the dairy sector .. we need more diversity and less negativity in this country.

[kizame]

Could the media paint today's Wynyard news in a more negative light? :

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/64656920/last-gasp-contract-win-for-wynyard

Hello. They won a major(ish) contract and yet the media focusses (again) on the chance of them missing their earnings expectations even though he SP now had reflected them possibly missing, by dipping recently.
Last gasp .... please. The media did the same with Xero recently - trumpeting that they were the worst performer in the NZX50 for 2014, even though they are up upteen percent from their IPRO price in very short period.
Not all of us are traders, or short-sighted people.
The media are sure quick to trumpet the dairy sector .. we need more diversity and less negativity in this country.

If not a trader then you don't need to worry do you,just market noise for you.
But agreed the media always go for the more sensational approach even if only in a small way in that announcement.
But you must agree it is disappointing when a company comes out with such a statement that a lot of earnings will be deffered until next half.

[BFG]

Couldn't even get the IPO date right (stated listing 6 months ago). Sigh...

Wonder how much longer Sammy Morgans going to hold the SP up?

[lastmoa]

don't want to sound negative either........ BUT the share price almost doubled last year and at one stage had tripled so they need to produce some pretty stellar results to justify the rise.
Given their revenue downgrade I don't think they are producing stellar results at all.
Holding but looking mighty frothy given current performance.


That is the nature of the space they are in. Yes, when you compare WYN (or Xero and PEB for that matter) against traditional established companies, it does appear toppy. However (as I suspect you know) it is the potential that is attempted to be added into the SP. This is the trick - understanding what 'that potential' realistically is, by understand their space.
Any sub-$2 dips have enabled me to accumulate for the long haul. Patience. Patience. Let the story build.

[Baa_Baa]

Until terrorism, crime and vice go out of fashion and world peace breaks out, WYN is an excellent choice with great products in demand … long term hold and accumulating.

[Tsuba]

http://www.digitaljournal.com/pr/2440407

[sb9]

http://www.digitaljournal.com/pr/2440407

Surprised to see no announcement from the company as regards to above.

[BFG]

I have very little doubt now that this...


http://www.digitaljournal.com/pr/2440407

is this...

https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=3784630

[BlackPeter]

I have very little doubt now that this...



is this...

https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=3784630

Looks about right. Though funny that Wynyard didn't disclose the name of the customer (they normally would, unless the client does not want to be named). But than ... why is the client afterwards running to the press? Looks like a nice little communications break down - or a leak in the sheriff's office (which would be sort of concerning).

[BFG]

Looks about right. Though funny that Wynyard didn't disclose the name of the customer (they normally would, unless the client does not want to be named). But than ... why is the client afterwards running to the press? Looks like a nice little communications break down - or a leak in the sheriff's office (which would be sort of concerning).

If the client doesn't want confidentality and Wynyard doesn't have an embargo on their name being used then there is no issue really. Might just be the status quo with Wynyard to stamp "confidential" on it, unless stated otherwise.

[Xerof]

I have very little doubt now that this...



is this...

https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=3784630

so........ why would the announcement be made in Auckland and London, instead of Auckland and Indiana? I also think 3.2m for an installation into a local sheriffs office is way over the top. IMO, this one was too small for Craig to bother writing up an Announcement.

[BFG]

so........ why would the announcement be made in Auckland and London, instead of Auckland and Indiana? I also think 3.2m for an installation into a local sheriffs office is way over the top. IMO, this one was too small for Craig to bother writing up an Announcement.

WYN has offices in London, no? But yes, I do agree $3.2M is a bit over the top for a county sheriff's office! Never know with them 'Merikans though ;)

[BlackPeter]

so........ why would the announcement be made in Auckland and London, instead of Auckland and Indiana? I also think 3.2m for an installation into a local sheriffs office is way over the top. IMO, this one was too small for Craig to bother writing up an Announcement.

not sure - some of these sheriff offices are quite big. Think hundreds or thousands of staff. This particular sheriffs office (Marion County) has 1100 employees: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marion_County_Sheriff%27s_Office_%28Indiana%29

They are well able to pay millions of dollars for crucial equipment.

[bmrm]

My assumption was that this is one of the (hopefully many) contracts too small to warrant disclosure. Nice to get a bit more context though, albeit from a third party.

An aside, the 'the Felony Lane Gang Working Group, comprising 92 law enforcement agencies' has been formed to fight a gang of 100 thieves. That's almost 1:1 agencies (not even personnel) vs criminals, at-least in NZ at worst we have Police and Customs. All the more opportunities for contracts for WYN I suppose....

[Harvey Specter]

My assumption was that this is one of the (hopefully many) contracts too small to warrant disclosure. Nice to get a bit more context though, albeit from a third party.

An aside, the 'the Felony Lane Gang Working Group, comprising 92 law enforcement agencies' has been formed to fight a gang of 100 thieves. That's almost 1:1 agencies (not even personnel) vs criminals, at-least in NZ at worst we have Police and Customs. All the more opportunities for contracts for WYN I suppose....The AMA on NBR confirmed that they dont disclose all new contracts, just large ones, ones in new areas and only where the customer approves.

I think he was on TV news (TV3) this morning talking about this among other things.

[sb9]

Good video link on TV3 with CEO explaining how they go about securing contracts, very refreshing :t_up:

[Baa_Baa]

Coverage on RadioNZ news today as well, talking about Wynyards software helping the agencies fight the 'Lane Gang' as per bmrm's post earlier.

[pedro1]

https://www.wynyardgroup.com/en/news-events-blog/wynyard-group-finalist-in-three-categories-for-the-2015-new-zealand-international-business-awards/

[Tsuba]

jeez I think RAK won many of these awards.........

Trust you Schnaps. Hope you caught plenty of fish over the holidays.

[BlackPeter]

todays article in NBR:
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/us-identity-theft-ring-investigation-use-wynyard-software-bd-167500?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NBR%2520Heads%2520Up

it lists the Marion county contract (which seems to be bigger ... lots of other law enforcement agencies including FBI involved) and the 3.2 Million Dollar deal with an unidentified "National Security Bureau" separately. So I guess if they know more than we do, it appears these are separate contracts.

[Baa_Baa]

WYN broke-up out of a descending wedge formation yesterday and followed through today to close at $2.14, being the resistance intraday high back at Nov 13th.

Next resistance is $2.19 from the intraday high of Oct 9th, then $2.24 Aug 21st ... which would break the range trading of the past 6 months or so.

Money flow is nicely positive as well. This bodes well for tests of those older resistance points. It also puts aside (hopefully permanently) the indecision indicated by the double bottom around $1.88 Aug 14th & $1.90 Dec 30th.

Perhaps people are realising this company has an excellent proven solution, a growing customer base & incomes, in a growing market.

[BFG]

WYN broke-up out of a descending wedge formation yesterday and followed through today to close at $2.14, being the resistance intraday high back at Nov 13th.

Next resistance is $2.19 from the intraday high of Oct 9th, then $2.24 Aug 21st ... which would break the range trading of the past 6 months or so.

Money flow is nicely positive as well. This bodes well for tests of those older resistance points. It also puts aside (hopefully permanently) the indecision indicated by the double bottom around $1.88 Aug 14th & $1.90 Dec 30th.

Perhaps people are realising this company has an excellent proven solution, a growing customer base & incomes, in a growing market.

Bollie band climb up ahead? Needs more volume imho.

[Baa_Baa]

Bollie band climb up ahead? Needs more volume imho.

Perhaps, personally I don't use Bollinger Bands except for options, exits and entry, assuming one has a clear trading strategy and sticks to it. They are helpful for extended price scenarios ... way over-bought/sold so they activate very late in a price move and need to be acted on immediately, hence better for really volatile instruments. Share prices move much more slowly, especially NZX shares which are basically illiquid compared to global stocks, so some simple support/resistance and trendlines, with basic MA's of ones choice work better here imho.

I agree though, that WYN suffers a lack of volume, like a lot of NZX shares. I'm confident though that the company has a great product in a (sadly) growing market, so it's only a matter of time before people realise this.

[hilskin]

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/wynyard-advanced-crime-analytics-solution-selected-by-pscu-the-nations-leading-credit-union-services-organization-300026894.html

[sb9]

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/wynyard-advanced-crime-analytics-solution-selected-by-pscu-the-nations-leading-credit-union-services-organization-300026894.html

Another feather in cap for them :t_up:

[couta1]

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/wynyard-advanced-crime-analytics-solution-selected-by-pscu-the-nations-leading-credit-union-services-organization-300026894.html
News not released on market, unusual for them?

[sb9]

News not released on market, unusual for them?

Probably Craig is too busy signing all these recent contracts that he has forgotten to issue market release :p

[sb9]

http://www.wynyardgroup.com/en/news-events-blog/wynyard-software-selected-by-leading-credit-union-services-organisation-in-the-us/

Does appear on their website...

[GR8DAY]

Just a consistent flow of good news from this well run company now.......SP lagging behind a bit IMHO? Holder.

[sb9]

Looks like punters haven't caught up onto this latest update, seems like bargain at the current sp level.

[BFG]

Just a consistent flow of good news from this well run company now.......SP lagging behind a bit IMHO? Holder.

Does not meeting FY guidance and a stab in the dark on the last trading day sign up count as good news? The growth rate may be great, but until they sign a huge US deal, this company, just like PEB, is still overvalued. Sometimes a pity that NZX stocks can't be shorted; if this were the ASX WYN would have fallen much lower a long time ago...

Still, she is ticking upwards very slowly these days, mostly due to lack of sellers!

[lastmoa]

Does not meeting FY guidance and a stab in the dark on the last trading day sign up count as good news? The growth rate may be great, but until they sign a huge US deal, this company, just like PEB, is still overvalued. Sometimes a pity that NZX stocks can't be shorted; if this were the ASX WYN would have fallen much lower a long time ago...

Still, she is ticking upwards very slowly these days, mostly due to lack of sellers!

I'll agree with Sam Morgan on this one and agree to disagree with you here .... I don't compare this to any PEB (or other) stocks. WYN has a product that is getting great reach in the ever growing area of cyber-security. They have got some credible partners and signups and are starting to show USA traction. I don't pin their success on USA - this compares to what I would also say for XRO, but that's another story.
But no, I think WYN in a few short years will be a NZ success story, and now is a good opportunity for wise investors to accumulate at these levels. imho. There may be volatility ahead but I would rather lock in before the train leaves the station, whenever that will be is anyone's guess, but, mark my words, it will happen.

[Baa_Baa]

I agree lastmoa, there's little point in comparing WYN with other stocks, even other tech stocks, as it's not about the tech sector per se, it's about WYN having the 'right product, in the right market at the right time' (vice, crime, terrorism etc), it has a unique niche, an enormous market opportunity and continues to notch up successes and growth.

This period of depressed price could soon be over though as money flow and volume are improving, there are fewer price resistance points overhead, and people seem to be realising the opportunity. When it bolts, as I suspect it will, it will likely be similar to the Jan14 move, as opposed to a gradual climb up a wall of worry, like the numerous yield stocks currently in favour.

BAA



I'll agree with Sam Morgan on this one and agree to disagree with you here .... I don't compare this to any PEB (or other) stocks. WYN has a product that is getting great reach in the ever growing area of cyber-security. They have got some credible partners and signups and are starting to show USA traction. I don't pin their success on USA - this compares to what I would also say for XRO, but that's another story.
But no, I think WYN in a few short years will be a NZ success story, and now is a good opportunity for wise investors to accumulate at these levels. imho. There may be volatility ahead but I would rather lock in before the train leaves the station, whenever that will be is anyone's guess, but, mark my words, it will happen.

[BFG]

I agree lastmoa, there's little point in comparing WYN with other stocks, even other tech stocks, as it's not about the tech sector per se,

Just say it. I dare ya, I double dare ya.

"It's different this time"


This period of depressed price could soon be over though

Depressed share price? Pray, do tell me how the metrics stack up to see WYN as "depressed"!

Disc - not holding WYN but more caution is needed than what has been said here. I like the company, especially if it secures a big US contract and grows much faster, but the company has recently missed guidance and is already heavily loss-making. DYOR.

[Leftfield]

Just released this morning










30 January 2015, Auckland - Wynyard Group, a market leader in advanced crime


analytics software and services, has today announced its unaudited revenue


for the year ended 31 December 2014.





Unaudited FY14 revenue was $25.7 million up from $21.7 million last year.


This includes 2H14 revenue of $15.6 million, up 54% on the previous half, and


a record $9.0 million final quarter.





Wynyard Group CEO Craig Richardson said "The key indicators of momentum and


sustainable revenue growth are very strong. Software licence revenue


increased 60% in FY14 to $8.1 million and recurring revenue of $13.7 million


remained high at 53% of total revenue. Growth was primarily driven by our


mid-year strategic decision to focus on larger contracts for our advanced


crime analytics platform".

[BlackPeter]

Somewhat disappointing result, they didn't manage to reach the $29 Million revenue they promised (which was anyway not a that challenging goal for "growth" company). No doubt the annual loss will be higher than expected. On the other hand - their PS is now at least down to 10 ... makes them looking better than the XRO's of this world ...

Agree with Moosie - this is an interesting company in an interesting space, but IMHO no indication for SP discounted at current. I do wish them well and might be tempted to buy some, if & when the price is right. However at this stage, I think that hype is still a too large component of the share price. As well: ESCROW clause running out after the release of the 2014 annual report ... might be tempting for some of the bigger holders to make some money while the share price is high.

[BFG]

Yes BP, and we all know what happens with with the SP when cheap options are being taken up constantly to sell on market a la SLI! I hope for holders this doesn't happen, be a shame.

[sb9]

Well, they did indicate end last year that the revenue target may be missed. On the positive side, they seem to be on right path with all these recent big contracts in US. Along with lower NZD this should be good sign for FY2015, just my 1c worth.

[lastmoa]

A somewhat expected result on the basis that they did indicate to the market that they would miss their revised estimate. On the upside I do like their trajectory for last 1/2 and especially last 1/4 .. remembering that they indicated that some large contracts would fall in 1st 1/4 2015. All good here if you are an investor - I am sure traders wanted to see a spike, but that's not my game, so a happy holder in an exciting growing/exploding niche area.

[sb9]

A somewhat expected result on the basis that they did indicate to the market that they would miss their revised estimate. On the upside I do like their trajectory for last 1/2 and especially last 1/4 .. remembering that they indicated that some large contracts would fall in 1st 1/4 2015. All good here if you are an investor - I am sure traders wanted to see a spike, but that's not my game, so a happy holder in an exciting growing/exploding niche area.

Totally agree, happy to hold long term not in hurry to make quick buck. Good things take time!!!

[lastmoa]

Interesting site for following attacks :
http://maps.ipviking.com/

Every second, Norse collects and analyzes live threat intelligence from darknets in hundreds of locations in over 40 countries. The attacks shown are based on a small subset of live flows against the Norse honeypot infrastructure, representing actual worldwide cyber attacks by bad actors. At a glance, one can see which countries are aggressors or targets at the moment, using which type of attacks (services-ports).

Hovering over the ATTACK ORIGINS, ATTACK TARGETS, or ATTACK TYPES will highlight just the attacks emanating from that country or over that service-port respectively. Hovering over any bubble on the map, will highlight only the attacks from that location and type. Press S to toggle table sizes.

Norse exposes its threat intelligence via high-performance, machine-readable APIs in a variety of forms. Norse also provides products and solutions that assist organizations in protecting and mitigating cyber attacks.

[Ninefingers]

Fascinating link lastmoa, thanks for sharing!

[BFG]

Looks like Wynyard is doing it's job well for the FMA :)

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/65813245/fma-probes-market-manipulation-sources

[BFG]

Looks like Wynyard is doing it's job well for the FMA :)

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/65813245/fma-probes-market-manipulation-sources

Appears its a fund manager as well!

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11397159

[Baa_Baa]

BFG, please xplain why you think it's WYN?
TIA.

[BFG]

BFG, please xplain why you think it's WYN?
TIA.

https://www.wynyardgroup.com/en/news-events-blog/wynyard-investigator-software-transforms-ipo-process-for-new-zealand%E2%80%99s-capital-market-operator/

[Baa_Baa]

BFG, please xplain why you think it's WYN?
TIA.

Thanks BFG, I misunderstood. Yes, good to see WYN earnings its keep. Smart stuff.
https://www.wynyardgroup.com/en/news...rket-operator/ (https://www.wynyardgroup.com/en/news-events-blog/wynyard-investigator-software-transforms-ipo-process-for-new-zealand%E2%80%99s-capital-market-operator/)

[BFG]

Piece in the Sunday Star Times today on Wynyard

6751

[ghostrider68]

Wouldn't it be funny if WYN software caught MAM manipulating WYN's stock price?

[Tsuba]

http://business.scoop.co.nz/2015/02/19/wynyard-group-expands-u-s-partner-programme/

[lastmoa]

very good step forward considering many US annalist are saying cyber security is the next big thing...........I note that their new partner, immixGroup, is consistently mentioned in the top 2 picks in this sector.
This is bigger news than the market will credit.

Agree Snapiti. Yes, I think the market can focus too much on revenue without looking at the bigger picture and the story developing. This is important great news as there will be much protocol to follow to get into the federal/state/govt agencies in USA. Tis will expedite all that at a very apt time. Very good progress and a very huge potential market in US alone.

[Baa_Baa]

very good step forward considering many US annalist are saying cyber security is the next big thing...........I note that their new partner, immixGroup, is consistently mentioned in the top 2 picks in this sector.
This is bigger news than the market will credit.

Cyber security by definition works in the background, under cover if you will, it is not really in the interests of government agencies and corporates to announce "hey we're under attack!" which they are, constantly, so it's a difficult market opportunity for people to grasp and a balancing act for a company like WYN who can't readily go to market and say "hey look at all the govt agencies and corporates who are vulnerable and we're helping sort it out". Someone posted this recently, people should take a look at what's going on in the WORLD of cyberattacks, this is a real time view of the battleground. http://maps.ipviking.com/

So I think you're probably right, the market may be slower to realise how significant it is to secure 'immixGroup' as a distributor of Wynyard software. What the market will hopefully understand in due course is the revenues to WYN that comes from such a huge distribution channel. http://www.immixgroup.com/government/products/cybersecurity/

BAA

[Tsuba]

http://www.prnewswire.co.uk/news-releases/red-sea-gateway-terminal-company-limited-rsgt-deploys-wynyard-risk-management-solution-293429521.html

[sb9]

Another promising signing....good on them.

[Baa_Baa]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/208650.pdf

“Wynyard can look back on its first full year as a publicly listed company with satisfaction and a high level of confidence for the future. The problems we help solve are growing in scale, complexity and impact and we have positioned Wynyard to take advantage of these serious crime and big data analytics trends,” Chief Executive Officer Craig Richardson.

[BlackPeter]

Oh dear - look at the depth ... 10 times more sellers than bidders. Suppose this is the day when the ESCROW clause ends. Will be interesting to see how much it falls - maybe it becomes interesting again to buy, who knows?

[alistair85]

Me thinks might be a good time to top up in a day or two

[Baa_Baa]

What does it take to catch a buy for WYN? I thought the FY results were pretty good, in line with expectations, or have I missed something? 10c away from the Aug14'2014 low @ $1.88, so while now might appear good buying, if that support breaks down, there's no realistic price support until $1.20. Though that would be great buying!

[Yoda]

Me thinks might be a good time to top up in a day or two
Maybe last chance for a top up in the morning ,support building.
I must say,its frustrating to see this stock in this rut. Possible sellers buying ZRO...?

[Baa_Baa]

Ok we got $1.88 today and $1.89 close. I think @yoda has a good point, the hot money is on XRO and it has to come from somewhere. WYN is right on technical price support, with nothing technically significant supporting under here - right back to the $1.10-$1.20 post IPO. So the question tomorrow is whether this is an accumulation opportunity, or buy in opportunity for some, or the tipping point for capitulation. I'm in the buy queue. What are you doing?

[BlackPeter]

"never catch a falling knife springs" to mind, but than it obviously could be already rock bottom. Anyway, if it is, than it still feels to dear for me.

[Leftfield]

I've de-risked and sold my WYN. It's been going sideways for some time, and has some downside potential. Think it is good long term, however there are better options at the moment. Still on my watch list. I wish holders well.

[brend]

I've de-risked and sold my WYN. It's been going sideways for some time, and has some downside potential. Think it is good long term, however there are better options at the moment. Still on my watch list. I wish holders well.

same purchased back around $1.2 and sold out over new year.

Still think its an interesting business and long term potential.

[GR8DAY]

.....well oversold IMHO. Buying opportunity presents. A company in the right place at the right time doing everything right....what more could you ask for? Massive potential lying in wait with growth prospects like none other. Holder/accumulator.

[BlackPeter]

.....well oversold IMHO. Buying opportunity presents. A company in the right place at the right time doing everything right....what more could you ask for? Massive potential lying in wait with growth prospects like none other. Holder/accumulator.

Sure - good company, interesting field. However - even a good company can be too dear (and many are these days).

So - lets assume their strategy is right and over time (how long?) they manage to turn their quite significant losses into profits. I hope they do, but have no indication how long this will take and how much profit they will make at this stage. May or may not need more capital along the way. What assumptions do you use to value this share at the moment? How do you know it is "oversold" and so presumably cheap?

[couta1]

Sure - good company, interesting field. However - even a good company can be too dear (and many are these days).

So - lets assume their strategy is right and over time (how long?) they manage to turn their quite significant losses into profits. I hope they do, but have no indication how long this will take and how much profit they will make at this stage. May or may not need more capital along the way. What assumptions do you use to value this share at the moment? How do you know it is "oversold" and so presumably cheap?
I agree take a look at SLi which has been sitting around $1-$1.20 for a long time and was at $2.90 a year ago yet they are meeting targets and growing revenue while Wyn has yet to show us the goods so yes in comparison probably too dear even at these prices.

[sb9]

Am happy with my holding at the moment. They're making good progress and signing some significant contract esp in US where the upside is huge. It'll take some time to realise potential gains...

[GR8DAY]

......actually BP I dont claim to "know" anything.....no-one does as far as markets and shareprices go.....I think we would agree on that. No matter the size of your calculator or the number of letters behind your beancounter degree (not you personally).......no-one has a clue, myself included. As far as my own "valuation" goes I believe they are worth $2.12 at the very least...why?.......becos that's what I paid for mine and that's as good a "valuation" as anyones! I guess all Im saying in regards Wyn is it appears to be well run with surely incredible potential and clearly many valued that potential (not long ago) well north of the current SP......but let see what Mr Market values it at.....as I say hopefully north of $2.12!!

[Baa_Baa]

Are we happy? Well ... happier. That was looking pretty desperate @ $1.88, back to $1.93 today. Someday I'll look back on this company and wonder why I didn't take a bigger position in it, but it's % max'd in my portfolio, especially after today. I think for certain that until world peace breaks out, it will be a steady progressive growth company and strong performer in its market. Somehow I also get a good feeling about investing in a company that strives to catch the crims and make the world a safer place.

[Baa_Baa]

I had to bail today, sold out WYN. Not because I don't like it, quite the contrary, but I have more reliable holdings and need the cash right now. The timing was alright to take a modest gain and move on. All the TA indicators are underwhelming, sadly, so it's cull the weakest. Goodbye WYN, I hope to renew our acquaintance in due course.

BAA

[hilskin]

Interesting article on Wynyard

http://e27.co/wynyard-is-your-modern-day-sherlock-holmes-20150310/

[sb9]

Any reason for recent sell off....

[Xerof]

Any reason for recent sell off.... Yeah, Baa Baa sold a ****load, and the sheeples must have followed him:t_up:

[alistair85]

No idea why... Thinking about entering at these prices tho. Im backing sam morgan and the team at wyn

[sb9]

No idea why... Thinking about entering at these prices tho. Im backing sam morgan and the team at wyn

Me too, might look to top up bit more depending on how sp behaves over next few days....

I read also somewhere that the escrow period ended after announcements of recent results, can someone verify/clarify?

[ratkin]

Me too, might look to top up bit more depending on how sp behaves over next few days....

I read also somewhere that the escrow period ended after announcements of recent results, can someone verify/clarify?

Dosent look ideal timing, i would wait for the dust to settle

[alistair85]

What dust? Im not sure the reason for the drop in the first place.. Nothing has changed from what can see..

[Xerof]

The 'dust' is the supply out of escrow, I guess.

https://www.nzx.com/companies/WYN/announcements/261356
(https://www.nzx.com/companies/WYN/announcements/261356)

[ratkin]

What dust? Im not sure the reason for the drop in the first place.. Nothing has changed from what can see..

Maybe you need to go to spec savers

[Baa_Baa]

What dust? Im not sure the reason for the drop in the first place.. Nothing has changed from what can see..

WYN share price tested and failed at major support at $1.90 on Feb 26th. Buyers saw value at the daily low $1.86 and bought back up to close at $1.89. That support was however tested again yesterday with another $1.89 close.

Today the 3rd trade of the day sold at $1.88 breaking support and proceeded down through recent low of $1.86.

WYN might look like value at $1.85 (today's close, recovering from a low $1.79) but caution is warranted as there is no technical support (historical price guidance) of any significance between here and $1.16 from Jan 2014. All the short term technical indicators are declining as well.

BAA

p.s. My sellout was definitely not a ****load as reported earlier and I strongly doubt whether any sheeple would flock towards the bleatings of a member called Baa_Baa. LOL.

[BlackPeter]

Any reason for recent sell off....

Big owners who are now allowed to sell (after the ESCROW clause expired - 2014 results released) trying to make hey while the sun still shines ....
Missed financial targets and all these things don't help to support the lofty price.

Expect SP to drop further, but will be interesting to see where it finds its new level.

[sb9]

Seems the $1.80 support being tested now, wonder where next support is if it breaches $1.80.

Does anyone know what Mr Morgan paid when he purchased last year, was it around $1.75-$1.80....interesting times ahead..

[sb9]

Well, $1.80 is breached into $1.70s range now.....next support level seem to be very bearish..

[lastmoa]

Well, $1.80 is breached into $1.70s range now.....next support level seem to be very bearish..

Wow, seems most people here are traders. Bearish, no doubt but when others are fearful ......
Great time to top up - the story hasn't changed so why not.
I have researched the coy enough, know the space they are in. Big 'Interpol conference in Singapore Wynyard at showcasing at ..... all progress.
Some of the 'technical analysis' messages seem like groundhog day for me when I was accumulating XRO @ sub $5. LOl

Anyway, I may be wrong on Wynyard but I like the traction they have made and I sure as hell like the niche space they are in - and it is in big demand and growing (quietly for obvious reasons).

[ratkin]

...
Great time to top up - the story hasn't changed so why not.


Because it will probably be cheaper soon?

[noodles]

Wow, seems most people here are traders. Bearish, no doubt but when others are fearful ......
Great time to top up - the story hasn't changed so why not.

But the story has changed. They missed revenue didn't they? Many long term investors look for companies where management meet their forecasts.

[lastmoa]

But the story has changed. They missed revenue didn't they? Many long term investors look for companies where management meet their forecasts.

Depends on what story you are following, I guess. 8-)
All good. Either way the SP goes I will be happy.

[Baa_Baa]

JMHO, when no one can, or is willing, to volunteer a fair value, and the SP falls below the narrow 9-month trading range, then understandably people might look for some clues about where this is heading.

Regardless of whether we think WYN has a great future, there's no common wisdom to risk short/medium term capital buying a break down in a trading range, and now a new down trend, with all MA's and indicators negative. Apart from the 5 day price hike in early January 2014, there is also no significant historical price support until $1.12. I wouldn't bet on a single day closing price providing support, in a 5-day trading period, over a year ago.

Some patience here watching where it might settle (or supreme confidence in WYN with no concern for a potential further 35% capital loss), could be rewarded. Nothing at the moment suggests that the share price won't go lower.

Maybe the big money might wade in again? They sometimes do when they see their capital at risk, propping up the price, of when their confidence is compromised, or just plainly see value where the market doesn't. If or when they do, that will be obvious and then you'll have a new SP floor you're looking for, assuming you're watching and can act quickly.

Maybe they won't though. So just be patient. Hold if you can stand the hurt, sell if you can't, buy back in, or more, when the price settles, or when an uptrend resumes, and you have confidence it's not going lower, or much lower.

BAA

ps. I'd post a chart, and am happy to do so if anyone wants to see it, but there's nothing positive about it and my thoughts on it are above FYI.


..snip ..
Some of the 'technical analysis' messages seem like groundhog day for me when I was accumulating XRO @ sub $5. ..end snip ..

[Tsuba]

http://www.zdnet.com/article/cyber-criminals-boost-sales-through-data-laundering/

[sb9]

https://nzx.com/companies/WYN/announcements/261995

Another step in the right direction....

[Latama]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/WYN/announcements/262027

Dual listing coming up.

[ratkin]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/WYN/announcements/262027

Dual listing coming up.

More money spent

[winner69]

More money spent

And joins the other 35 odd NZX companies listed on the ASX

Wonder which exchange will lead the price?

Research suggests that only the likes of SPK, TME, FBU is price discovery greater on the ASX. For most of the others dual listing is a non event.

But good for the ego

[blobbles]

And joins the other 35 odd NZX companies listed on the ASX

Wonder which exchange will lead the price?

Research suggests that only the likes of SPK, TME, FBU is price discovery greater on the ASX. For most of the others dual listing is a non event.

But good for the ego

Exactly what I though Winner, not too sure what they are all thinking... the ASX is the road to riches? Hardly. Do they think there may be more appetite for capital raisings simply due to the population scale? Not sure...

[MAC]

Exactly what I though Winner, not too sure what they are all thinking... the ASX is the road to riches? Hardly. Do they think there may be more appetite for capital raisings simply due to the population scale? Not sure...

Perhaps it's just a perception or even maybe a frustration for WYN that the dominant dividend yielding NZX culture doesn't appreciate or value the potential in growth stocks the way the ASX does.

I'd agree with you though, it's the companies with a high on the ground marketing presence in Australia that achieve additional liquidity from a dual listing FBU, KMD, MHI etc, perhaps soon add ATM to that list.

But for those like SUM who have no Australian based operation at all, it may well cost more in administration than it will improve shareholder wealth or improve liquidity.

Perhaps WYN presently do have a large Australian investor on the hook, an ASX listing may be a condition of investment.

[Tsuba]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/67529529/it-guy-helps-kiwi-tech-companies-go-global

[mayday]

Wynyard Group Expands Security Credentials

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1503/S01015/wynyard-group-expands-security-credentials.htm

not sure why they don't release the news on nzx

[Xirr]

Wynyard Group Expands Security Credentials

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1503/S01015/wynyard-group-expands-security-credentials.htm

not sure why they don't release the news on nzx

Yup because joining the other 25,000 or so companies globally that have ISO 27001 certification is truely an achievement to crow about.

There are already too many pointless announcements on the NZX, dont go adding to the list.

[lastmoa]

Yup because joining the other 25,000 or so companies globally that have ISO 27001 certification is truely an achievement to crow about.

There are already too many pointless announcements on the NZX, dont go adding to the list.

Nice - Didn't think I would get still more opportunity to keep topping up at these levels. Down or Up is fine with me. 8-)

[mayday]

Nice - Didn't think I would get still more opportunity to keep topping up at these levels. Down or Up is fine with me. 8-)

definitely buy but I will wait until their ASX final listing date is announced while sp may slip further at time being imo, it may become another ATM that gained 12% yesterday after ASX listing :t_up:

[Tsuba]

http://www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/Felony-Lane-Gang-Targeting-Purses-Left-in-Cars-298371751.html

[ratkin]

http://www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/Felony-Lane-Gang-Targeting-Purses-Left-in-Cars-298371751.html

Bit of a non story really. Thieves looking out for valuables left in cars, been endemic for years

[Baa_Baa]

What WYN needs around here is the FA's who can crunch the numbers and share some insights as to what fair value is. Meantime the SP is in never never land locked in the Linear Regression Channel, with no realistic price support apart from in the abyss below. Money Flow anemic. RSI and Slow Sto indicator is oversold, maybe perking up.

So FA's, what do you think it's really worth, where is fair value?
7263
BAA

[ratkin]

It is impossible to know, they dont reveal the value of their contracts, so its all a mystery. This company reeminds me of Rakon in some ways. Its all clock and dagger, smoke and mirrors.

One thing you can be sure of is the more the price drops the more "good news announcements" they will make. However they will all be vague and unquantifyable.

[couta1]

I have always wondered why the WYN share price is higher than SLI, perhaps around $1.20 is a fair price currently, at least with SLI we have some clear figures to work with just a shame about all those options suppressing things. Still I don't believe WYN was worth over $2 while SLI was around $1.10-$1.20 something seems wrong here. Disc-Hold SLI and have held WYN previously.

[winner69]

It is impossible to know, they dont reveal the value of their contracts, so its all a mystery. This company reeminds me of Rakon in some ways. Its all clock and dagger, smoke and mirrors.

One thing you can be sure of is the more the price drops the more "good news announcements" they will make. However they will all be vague and unquantifyable.

Similarities are a bit spooky eh ratkin

In between the good news announcements there seems to be a steady flow of announcements saying revenues are going to be down on expectations / guidance. Not good

wasn't there a capital raising a while ago, $2.70 I believe. Ouch

You shouldn't have made do the chart below. Amazing how Rakon seems to have become the benchmark to track the share price of many high flying companies. Of course there is nothing in common between RAK and WYN - but the chart mirrors punters behaviours.

Whoops, now you have two charts and I dunno know to delete one

[BlackPeter]

Actually - if you overlay XRO or PEB instead of RAK, than you end up again with a similar picture. What all these candidates have in common is a huge SP "peak" based on hope and hype (without any material underlying earnings) and afterwards a cut back of the peak price into (roughly) half. Obviously - RAK kept sliding after this initial drop (though they might be now coming out of a very low bottom - don't know, don't follow them anymore).

I guess we don't know yet whether all of these candidates go the Rakon way - and personally I would find that quite sad for the New Zealand industry, but sentiment is no investment strategy.

I would however point to some differences between RAK and WYN. RAK is producing hardware. Hardware obsoletes incredibly fast these days. If you miss the bus once, than you can kiss your investment good bye. As well - hardware is an incredible competitive domain. Whatever you can make - somebody in Asia can do it cheaper. I think the RAK share price nicely supports these points.

As well - RAK was always under control of one family who created at times the impression that their lavish lifestyle funded by all shareholders was more important to them than the ultimate good of the company. This approach might work as long as a company is booming, but if times are anyway difficult than a board / mangement like that is as useful as a block of concrete attached to somebody drowning in deep water.

Looking at WYN - they sell software and knowledge about big data analysis in a quite new field. Risky - for sure, but I think that the risk / reward balance is better aligned than in the case of RAK. As well - so far I have seen in WYN no indication for individuals funding a lavish lifestyle out of shareholder funds.

I believe they have a fighting chance to not just survive, but to thrive. Need however to agree with ratkin that it is at this stage difficult to assess at current a fair value for the company.

Discl: Watching with interest .... likely to buy (back in) if & when the worm turns ...

[percy]

Is Wynyard's CEO Craig Richardson, any relation of Jade's chairman Dr.The Hon.Ruth Richardson?

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Is Wynyard's CEO Craig Richardson, any relation of Jade's chairman Dr.The Hon.Ruth Richardson?

Hi Percy,

E&OE

I don't know the answer to your question, however my assumption is Craig may be Australian, his CV includes:

Coca-Cola Amatil’s (ASX:CCL), BlueScope Steel (ASX:BSL) and Vodafone in Sweden and Australia.

Craig is a certified practising accountant and fellow of CPA Australia.

Regards

[Baa_Baa]

Then Craig the CEO, a Director and a CPA, would know how to value the company. Maybe we should just ask him to put sufficient relevant information in their financial reporting so his shareholders can value the company as well. Better than watching his company share price (and performance bonus?) sink into the abyss on a lack of basic information. Doesn't seem too much to ask, does it?


...snip ... Craig is a certified practising accountant and fellow of CPA Australia. ...endsnip...

[winner69]

BaaBaa, $1.71 here
http://www.macroaxis.com/invest/market/WYN.NZ--valuation--Wynyard-Group-Limited

[Baa_Baa]

Thanks W69, it's an interesting website, I've been monitoring it for this and other companies, though cannot speak for it's efficacy or accuracy. They have some alarming quotes like "Wynyard is extremely risky asset" downside $0.09 (though upside $7.65). The margin or error is clearly wide. Oddly, or by co-incidence their fair value rating is precisely the Friday close price. I wonder if Macroaxis works better for more stable profitable companies with decent financial reporting. Garbage in garbage out?

With a negative EPS though, that tends to screw up the SP valuations, like Grahams for example. I'm not sure that Reuters is much help either http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/financialHighlights?symbol=WYN.NZ

I guess without any FA input it's just about monitoring the price and indicators, which is a shame that WYN has to devolve to being a trading instrument when on the face of it the company appears to be doing very well.

BAA


BaaBaa, $1.71 here
http://www.macroaxis.com/invest/market/WYN.NZ--valuation--Wynyard-Group-Limited

[Earthling]

Can someone explain the following?
1. On Friday 2/4/2015 The New Zealand Superannuation Fund released the following: “The Guardians of New Zealand Superannuation, the manager of the New Zealand Superannuation Fund, has suspended the Fund’s mandate with Milford Asset Management until a Financial Markets Authority (FMA) investigation into Milford is completed.
In the interim, the funds will be managed internally."

2. On Friday Milford made 8 announcements of changes in significant shareholdings including a fall of 1,879,082 in the number of Wynyard shares it holds (from 15,978,584 to 14,099,502). The announcement includes the "Date of relevant event: 31/03/2015". It also includes "Details of transactions and events giving rise to relevant event", these being transactions in October and November of 2014.

3. The volume of shares traded on 31/3 was 17100 and on Friday 2/4 was 36,400.

I'm trying to make sense of this.
Were the significant-shareholder-announcements on Friday related to Milford's suspension by the Superannuation fund? Were they related to the fact that it was the last day of the financial year?
Why do they release details of events giving rise to the relevant event but not of the event itself?
When did Milford sell these 1,879,082 WYN shares?
Can shares be sold off-market and not be counted in the market volume?
Were Milford gradually selling these shares in WYN and other companies over a period of time but not quite selling enough to trigger an announcement until the end of the financial year? If so why?
If the sales are related to Milford's suspension by the superannuation fund do they hold more shares on behalf of the superannuation fund, which they are still to sell?

[winner69]

Earthling

1) On 8/10/14 they had 15,978,584 shares

2) Between then and 12/11/14 they bought a net 673,759 shares (bought 1,440,609 shares after selling 766,850 shares)

3) The other day NZ Super Fund took over 2,552,841 shares

What the Super Fund does with these shares I have no idea but would think they would sit on them until they finally decide what to do with Milford.

4)Milford now have a holding or a relevant interest in 14,099,502 shares

1) plus 2) minus 3) gives you 4)

Don't worry - milford haven't sold any since last October. They just don't the Super Fund shares under their control anymore

Clear as mud eh, all in the announcement, except the bit about you getting worried

[Earthling]

Earthling

........
Clear as mud eh, all in the announcement

Thank you, winner69. It is even clearer than mud. I somehow missed the crucial 4 lines between "Details of transactions and events giving rise to relevant event" and the table. I'm sorry to have asked dumb questions.

[percy]

Hi Percy,

E&OE

I don't know the answer to your question, however my assumption is Craig may be Australian, his CV includes:

Coca-Cola Amatil’s (ASX:CCL), BlueScope Steel (ASX:BSL) and Vodafone in Sweden and Australia.

Craig is a certified practising accountant and fellow of CPA Australia.

Regards
Thanks for your reply.
I am sure you are correct and Craig is an Australian and no relation to Jade's chairman.
Just appeared to me WYN was having the same sort of "speed wobbles" that has plagued Jade;all go,all woe, and thought it may be a family thing!!!

[lastmoa]

Motley Fool article with WYn mention : http://www.smh.com.au/business/motley-fool/motley-fool-three-kiwi-worldbeaters-20150408-1mgjvq.html

[sb9]

Feeling the love again??

Very light volume though...

[Tsuba]

http://www.sys-con.com/node/3329492

[sb9]

http://www.sys-con.com/node/3329492

Good one, hope similar traction in US as well..

[theace]

No news for a long time ... wonder if that's good news, as the SP keeps declining.

[BlackPeter]

No news for a long time ... wonder if that's good news, as the SP keeps declining.

It looks like the markets developed some sort of "resistance" against empty good news stories (that's the stories without numbers) anyway. Don't make a lot of difference these days. Maybe companies should focus more on making money instead of telling good (but empty) stories?

Re WYN - not sure whether I expect any significant trend change before the next results are out. If they increase their losses again (a la XRO), than I'd expect a further SP drop. If they however manage to turn the loss increasing trend around AND manage to top up their still quite meagre growth rate, than shareholders might be in for a pleasant surprise. Personally I think the first outcome is more likely, but this is just me being a realist ;).

[psychic]

Good to see a bot working the buy side today...Interest returning?
(edit - sod all depth otherwise - perhaps just helping us tread water for the time being...eek)

[sb9]

Better outcome today ....

[lastmoa]

Nice to see Australian politicians show, in the budget, the concerns they have around increasing cyber-crime. They have allowed a significant investment allowance to allow the forces to stay in front of cyber-crime :
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2015/5/14/federal-budget/budgets-cyber-measures-address-data-problem

[lastmoa]

Reads very good to me .... Will be an interesting AGM tomorrow :

WYNYARD GROUP FY15 REVENUE UPDATE
18 May 2015, Auckland – Wynyard Group (NZX:WYN), a market leader in serious crime fighting software, has signed a number of new contracts and contract extensions in 1H15 and expects to shortly conclude commercial negotiations for a significant national security solution to be delivered in 2H15. Wynyard has also progressed its America’s expansion plan and is in the final stages of securing an important partner distribution agreement for Wynyard Advanced Crime Analytics solutions across the United States and global law enforcement markets.
Wynyard is following a global growth strategy focused on:
- Delivering market leading, high value crime fighting software products that help solve and prevent serious organised and trans-national crime, financial crime and threats from new generation extremism and high consequence cyber crime
- Expanding Wynyard’s global sales and services operations and increasing company headcount from 228 to more than 330 full time employees by the end of 2015
- Building a global distribution network through leading systems integrators to increase Wynyard’s serviceable market and access to larger contracts
- Extending Wynyard’s product leadership position with a new release of Wynyard Advanced Crime Analytics and the launch of Wynyard Advanced Cyber Threat Analytics in FY15
The company is currently on track to deliver on these objectives. Based on its contracts secured to date and forward looking qualified sales pipeline, Wynyard currently expects revenue in the range of $40 to $45 million for FY15. Wynyard reported revenue of $26 million in FY14.

[BlackPeter]

Reads very good to me .... Will be an interesting AGM tomorrow :

WYNYARD GROUP FY15 REVENUE UPDATE
18 May 2015, Auckland – Wynyard Group (NZX:WYN), a market leader in serious crime fighting software, has signed a number of new contracts and contract extensions in 1H15 and expects to shortly conclude commercial negotiations for a significant national security solution to be delivered in 2H15. Wynyard has also progressed its America’s expansion plan and is in the final stages of securing an important partner distribution agreement for Wynyard Advanced Crime Analytics solutions across the United States and global law enforcement markets.
Wynyard is following a global growth strategy focused on:
- Delivering market leading, high value crime fighting software products that help solve and prevent serious organised and trans-national crime, financial crime and threats from new generation extremism and high consequence cyber crime
- Expanding Wynyard’s global sales and services operations and increasing company headcount from 228 to more than 330 full time employees by the end of 2015
- Building a global distribution network through leading systems integrators to increase Wynyard’s serviceable market and access to larger contracts
- Extending Wynyard’s product leadership position with a new release of Wynyard Advanced Crime Analytics and the launch of Wynyard Advanced Cyber Threat Analytics in FY15
The company is currently on track to deliver on these objectives. Based on its contracts secured to date and forward looking qualified sales pipeline, Wynyard currently expects revenue in the range of $40 to $45 million for FY15. Wynyard reported revenue of $26 million in FY14.

Sounds good, however the question is - do they get their losses under control? Otherwise they might just follow XRO. Easy to pump revenue if you don't care about the size of your loss.

[Harvey Specter]

Sounds good, however the question is - do they get their losses under control? Otherwise they might just follow XRO. Easy to pump revenue if you don't care about the size of your loss.BUt I would expect less churn with their client base (govts and large MN) compared to Xero with its SMEs. I also think they sell on long term contracts vs Xero monthly.

[lastmoa]

Sounds good, however the question is - do they get their losses under control? Otherwise they might just follow XRO. Easy to pump revenue if you don't care about the size of your loss.

Don't mind if they 'follow Xero' - as long as the losses are incurred for global domination and there is some foreseeable crossover in rev/expenditure.

[bmrm]

More of interest to me is that they've obviously moved away from announcing every deal they do. Makes me more comfortable that no news is good news.

[BlackPeter]

BUt I would expect less churn with their client base (govts and large MN) compared to Xero with its SMEs. I also think they sell on long term contracts vs Xero monthly.

True - but I am still not sure what their costs are compared to their revenues. Actually - this is not true - so far the costs have been higher (and rising) and the revenue lagging behind. The all important question is: do they have a plan to change this trend and will they survive long enough to implement this plan (well, without further CR).

[psychic]

I guess their ramping employee numbers from 228 to 330 this year suggests they are not about to take the foot off the gas any time soon.
All seems pretty positive to me.

[Tsuba]

True - but I am still not sure what their costs are compared to their revenues. Actually - this is not true - so far the costs have been higher (and rising) and the revenue lagging behind. The all important question is: do they have a plan to change this trend and will they survive long enough to implement this plan (well, without further CR).

Have you ever heard of the saying " You have to spend money to make money " there Tosh. Don't you think in these early stages they do need to do that. Just a thought.

[Tsuba]

http://www.afr.com/technology/government-antiterrorism-cash-splash-a-boon-for-it-security-firm-wynyard-group-20150518-ggzj7c

[sb9]

http://www.afr.com/technology/government-antiterrorism-cash-splash-a-boon-for-it-security-firm-wynyard-group-20150518-ggzj7c

Good post, looks very promising.

[sb9]

Anyone here going to the AGM this afternoon, if so pls do summarise key points when you get a chance, thx.

[Crow]

Anyone here going to the AGM this afternoon, if so pls do summarise key points when you get a chance, thx.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/68663692/wynyard-contracts-lift-share-value

https://www.wynyardgroup.com/media/895462/Wynyard-AGM-2015.pdf

[Tsuba]

http://business.scoop.co.nz/2015/05/18/wynyard-sees-annual-revenue-growth-of-up-to-73/

[lastmoa]

Anyone here going to the AGM this afternoon, if so pls do summarise key points when you get a chance, thx.

SB9 - I went to the AGM. My take on it is that all their main global jurisdictions (NZ, Aust, USA, Middle East) are getting lots of interest for their solution.
Aust budget allowance for cyber-crime was mentioned as they see opportunities opening there.
USA - with the contracts they have already, they see these as good local reference points to be used to open doors. Having ex-FBI as Board Member (still based in DC) will help here too.
Middle East - WOW opportunities there. Watch this space is how I got the vibe.

The V2 cybercrime platform will be released this year and I got the take some larger potential clients are waiting in the wings for that.
They are beginning to field more enquiries in the larger (up to $10m) contract market.
Expenditure will still be high, especially with new offices and extra staff .. but that is seen to peak in 2016. They are conscience of cash burn, and the usual impatient (imho) questions were asked on 'when for dividends, when for profit. Patience here or invest in Telecom (sic).
They did a demo of their product which was sharp and you could easily see the benefits WYN tools would bring law enforcement agencies, etc. Covers off many areas of sophisticated crime.

All in all I am very happy to be a long term holder. Competitors were mentioned (namely Palantir - m/cap $15bill). But they are very confident they can compete on price and features.
All board members approachable afterwards and open as much as they can. I found a good passion for what they are creating and growing.

[psychic]

SB9 - I went to the AGM. My take on it is that all their main global jurisdictions (NZ, Aust, USA, Middle East) are getting lots of interest for their solution.
Aust budget allowance for cyber-crime was mentioned as they see opportunities opening there.
USA - with the contracts they have already, they see these as good local reference points to be used to open doors. Having ex-FBI as Board Member (still based in DC) will help here too.
Middle East - WOW opportunities there. Watch this space is how I got the vibe.

The V2 cybercrime platform will be released this year and I got the take some larger potential clients are waiting in the wings for that.
They are beginning to field more enquiries in the larger (up to $10m) contract market.
Expenditure will still be high, especially with new offices and extra staff .. but that is seen to peak in 2016. They are conscience of cash burn, and the usual impatient (imho) questions were asked on 'when for dividends, when for profit. Patience here or invest in Telecom (sic).
They did a demo of their product which was sharp and you could easily see the benefits WYN tools would bring law enforcement agencies, etc. Covers off many areas of sophisticated crime.

All in all I am very happy to be a long term holder. Competitors were mentioned (namely Palantir - m/cap $15bill). But they are very confident they can compete on price and features.
All board members approachable afterwards and open as much as they can. I found a good passion for what they are creating and growing.

cheers mate, thanks for posting

[sb9]

SB9 - I went to the AGM. My take on it is that all their main global jurisdictions (NZ, Aust, USA, Middle East) are getting lots of interest for their solution.
Aust budget allowance for cyber-crime was mentioned as they see opportunities opening there.
USA - with the contracts they have already, they see these as good local reference points to be used to open doors. Having ex-FBI as Board Member (still based in DC) will help here too.
Middle East - WOW opportunities there. Watch this space is how I got the vibe.

The V2 cybercrime platform will be released this year and I got the take some larger potential clients are waiting in the wings for that.
They are beginning to field more enquiries in the larger (up to $10m) contract market.
Expenditure will still be high, especially with new offices and extra staff .. but that is seen to peak in 2016. They are conscience of cash burn, and the usual impatient (imho) questions were asked on 'when for dividends, when for profit. Patience here or invest in Telecom (sic).
They did a demo of their product which was sharp and you could easily see the benefits WYN tools would bring law enforcement agencies, etc. Covers off many areas of sophisticated crime.

All in all I am very happy to be a long term holder. Competitors were mentioned (namely Palantir - m/cap $15bill). But they are very confident they can compete on price and features.
All board members approachable afterwards and open as much as they can. I found a good passion for what they are creating and growing.

Thanks for that lastmoa, very well summarised.

Looks very prospective and I guess next 2 to 3 years are going to define where the company is heading.

[Ginger_steps_]

Thanks Lastmoa. Was there any mention of the gun crime software, and the child sex offender software releases?

[Tsuba]

Will be interesting to see which direction the share price goes now on good news announcements or new contracts. As of late these announcements have had no or, more oddly, negative impact on share price.

[Mista_Trix]

Will be interesting to see which direction the share price goes now on good news announcements or new contracts. As of late these announcements have had no or, more oddly, negative impact on share price.

We're also sitting bang on the 200EMA cross, and close to the 200SMA.
There's a lot of waiting to see going on ... its run thus far has been stellar - can it keep it up, and has it turned for good?

[lastmoa]

Thanks Lastmoa. Was there any mention of the gun crime software, and the child sex offender software releases?

They touched on those two areas but did not give specifics on them in the upcoming software releases. (or I didn't catch anything there).

[bmrm]

Jasmine has been continuing to slowly accumulate this year: https://nzx.com/companies/WYN/announcements/264736
Average price of $2.03, so not likely to be flipping the holding any-time soon.

[Harvey Specter]

Jasmine has been continuing to slowly accumulate this year: https://nzx.com/companies/WYN/announcements/264736
Average price of $2.03, so not likely to be flipping the holding any-time soon.Big endorsement by Mr Morgan Jr.

[lastmoa]

Jasmine has been continuing to slowly accumulate this year: https://nzx.com/companies/WYN/announcements/264736
Average price of $2.03, so not likely to be flipping the holding any-time soon.

Where did you get the 'average price of $2.03' info, BMRM? Not doubting it, but I do recall Jasmine loading up in high $1.80's or $1.90's a while ago.
Yes, a v.good endorsement by Morgan, jr. I respect his tech-savvyness and hold long-term also. Exciting times ahead for patient investors. imho.

[sb9]

Where did you get the 'average price of $2.03' info, BMRM? Not doubting it, but I do recall Jasmine loading up in high $1.80's or $1.90's a while ago.
Yes, a v.good endorsement by Morgan, jr. I respect his tech-savvyness and hold long-term also. Exciting times ahead for patient investors. imho.

Here it is,

"On market purchases of 2,000,000 Wynyard shares between 28 January 2015 and 22 May 2015 for a total aggregate consideration of $4,055,000." Gives an av price of $2.03.

Nice endorsement again by Mr Morgan.

[lastmoa]

Here it is,

"On market purchases of 2,000,000 Wynyard shares between 28 January 2015 and 22 May 2015 for a total aggregate consideration of $4,055,000." Gives an av price of $2.03.

Nice endorsement again by Mr Morgan.

Doh, silly me ..... talking here about the average buy price of the recent purchase .. not overall average p.price. Don't have to be Mr Nash (RIP) to work that one out.

[lastmoa]

Wynyard looking for an Australian sales director : https://hire.jobvite.com/Jobvite/jobvite.aspx?b=nNGl8rwS

Timely, after the federal budget allocating funds for cyber-security work right up Wynyard's alley. Watch this space. imho.

[sb9]

https://nzx.com/companies/WYN/announcements/265330

Another good announcement...

[lastmoa]

https://nzx.com/companies/WYN/announcements/265330

Another good announcement...

Indeed. Markets not reacting much but once more detail comes out will be interesting. All in all a good sign of things gathering pace in USA. Not that the USA is the be-all-and-end-all, but yep, great news. Good time to top-up, sub $2. imho

[Tsuba]

If this was on the Chinese market she would be back to $3.

[Tsuba]

And the share price goes down. Seems to be the trend on good news in this country.

[Tsuba]

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Wynyard-Group-focuses-on-advanced-cybercrime-threa-30261803.html

[sb9]

And the share price goes down. Seems to be the trend on good news in this country.

Yeah, needs some overseas support with ASX closed today. Might have some lift tomorrow I'm picking..

[lastmoa]

Yeah, needs some overseas support with ASX closed today. Might have some lift tomorrow I'm picking..

Yes, I do notice, many times, that the NZX does not seem to have 'any balls' to forge ahead without backing of the ASX, or having direction from the US markets. This is good news and I do not feel many understand that to gain traction in the US it expedites things and gives comfort, having a local partner. Anyway, regardless, it makes me a happy long-term holder.

[sammiesmiles]

https://nzx.com/companies/WYN/announcements/265397

https://nzx.com/companies/WYN/announcements/265398

Hi Guys,
What will the capital raising impact on the share price? Good to accumulate some more?

[Harvey Specter]

What will the capital raising impact on the share price? Good to accumulate some more?Depends what the book build price is. Underwritten at 1.79 but if they get it away at close to market ($1.90) which is possible if insto's want to get in but didn't want to move the price by buying onmarket.

EDIT: Just read a bit more. There is a fixed price of $1.79 on the offer so price will drop into the 1.80 as those that buy in take a quick profit.

[bmrm]

Interesting turn of events, expected a capital raise given their cash-burn, but the size of it is fairly eye-watering. It says something positive about how this company is viewed by instos that they were able to get such a large raise fully underwritten and on reasonable terms.

[sb9]

Just checking to see if anyone here (Current WYN shareholders in particular) have got an offer to participate in new capital raising, I haven't for anything from the company.

[Scooter]

There is a placement in two stages, one is via brokers and institutions raising $40 mil, and I have participated in that, the other is a $5 mil placement to existing holders which will occur over the next couple of weeks.

[sb9]

Thanks for that Scooter, will keep on eye on my mail box.

[Harvey Specter]

Timetable:


Placement
Placement date 9 June 2015
Trading halt on the NZX 9 June 2015
Allocations finalised 9 June 2015
Trading resumes 10 June 2015
Placement settlement and allotment date 12 June 2015
Placement shares commence trading on the NZX 12 June 2015
Share Purchase Plan (SPP)
Record date for SPP1 23 June 2015
SPP booklet and Chairman's letter sent to eligible shareholders 24 June 2015
SPP offer period 24 June to 10 July 2015

[winner69]

Just checking to see if anyone here (Current WYN shareholders in particular) have got an offer to participate in new capital raising, I haven't for anything from the company.

sb9 - You should ask scooter why he was able to participate in the big round yesterday (see his post) while you have to wait to in line to get the crumbs

[Scooter]

sb9 - You should ask scooter why he was able to participate in the big round yesterday (see his post) while you have to wait to in line to get the crumbs

A good broker looking after his clients :)

[winner69]

All completed. Nice and easy by the sounds of it.

Some 22 million new share pretty high relative to 115 million on issue before hand

But the pie is going to be so big a smaller slice of it won't be noticed.

[Harvey Specter]

Sam Morgan must be a bit annoyed he purchased a large parcel at over $2 recently. Surely he must have predicted a capital raise - will be interesting to see if he participates.