MFB - My Food Bag

[blackcap]

fair enough blackcap yore putting it out there I admire that .
But tangible assets aint the big deal they used to be imho profits are more Important in this bear market rather than unrealizable assets.
Even property is not the asset it used to be look at all the floundering reits with huge debts growing bigger than the assets .
Hey I am not saying M F B is going to be profitable but I will wait another week to find out & then ! it may be a Bargain box for someone

I get that about the assets but if their brand falters.... there is nothing. Not saying it will, but I am decidedly uncertain about this one.

Time will tell indeed.

If they cannot make a profit, they are done for.

[bottomfeeder]

The promoters will have to take MFB private, otherwise their credibility in this part of the world will be rubbish. Perhaps at 25 cents.

[winner69]

Had a MFB delivery once so n the mailing list …never unsubscribed cos funny to read what they up to

Todays offer 40% off next delivery

Or if I refer a friend it’s 50% off for them and I get $30

Must be desperate to get me back lol

[Balance]

The promoters will have to take MFB private, otherwise their credibility in this part of the world will be rubbish. Perhaps at 25 cents.

They are long time gone and laughing at the mugs who were dumb enough to pay them hundreds of millions of dollars in goodwill.

As for credibility, try Feltex, Intueri, Wynyard, MPG, CBL, Snakk, Pike River etc etc. Did not stop the mugs coming back for third servings of poison!

[bottomfeeder]

They are long time gone and laughing at the mugs who were dumb enough to pay them hundreds of millions of dollars in goodwill.

As for credibility, try Feltex, Intueri, Wynyard, MPG, CBL, Snakk, Pike River etc etc. Did not stop the mugs coming back for third servings of poison!

The long list is a sad commentary on those greedy "financial finaglers" who are really white collar criminals that need to be brought to justice. So much daylight robbery from mum and dad investors either investing directly or through investment funds.

[Sideshow Bob]

Harbour now no longer a substantial holder.....

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MFB/421555/407039.pdf

[silverblizzard888]

Food prices starting to become more stable, should give MFB more certainty going forward and more consistent profits.

In October 2023 compared with September 2023:


fruit and vegetable prices fell 3.4% (up 2.2% after seasonal adjustment)
meat, poultry, and fish prices fell 0.7%
grocery food prices fell 0.8%
non-alcoholic beverage prices fell 0.4%
restaurant meals and ready-to-eat food prices rose 0.2%.


https://www.interest.co.nz/business/125208/stats-nz-says-food-prices-fell-across-board-october-stats-nz-has-also-released-new

[silverblizzard888]

Interim report coming out next week. My guess for the financials will be:

Revenue $80-85m - Its expected that this years revenue will be lower than the prior year which was $94m. I think it will be inline with 2019 numbers with a slight adjustment for inflation.

NPAT $2-2.5m - Last 6 months of FY23 yielded $2m NPAT, but with cost cutting measures I think they should be able to deliver slightly above it even though business revenue has dropped.

[nztx]

Interim report coming out next week. My guess for the financials will be:

Revenue $80-85m - Its expected that this years revenue will be lower than the prior year which was $94m. I think it will be inline with 2019 numbers with a slight adjustment for inflation.

NPAT $2-2.5m - Last 6 months of FY23 yielded $2m NPAT, but with cost cutting measures I think they should be able to deliver slightly above it even though business revenue has dropped.

Must be before carving of the Impearments & the Auditor's long knife gets swung around :)

Cant imagine this outfit would be overjoyed to point of swinging excessive pennies Stakeholders way
when the cupboard harbours a motherload of limp & twitching intangibles ;)

[blackcap]

Must be before carving of the Impearments & the Auditor's long knife gets swung around :)

Cant imagine this outfit would be overjoyed to point of swinging excessive pennies Stakeholders way
when the cupboard harbours a motherload of limp & twitching intangibles ;)

Possibly a NPAT of -$20m?

[winner69]

Possibly a NPAT of -$20m?

Impearments don’t count so no worries in that respect

[kiora]

Imoearments don’t count so no worries in that respect

"Imoearments"

Short for

In My ear moments ?

[Snoopy]

"Imoearments"

Short for

In My ear moments ?

I think it is just a 'winnerism' short for 'Don't believe everything you hear'. A bit like the one below


Impearments don’t count so no worries in that respect

Blaming bad decisions on management themselves having a bad diet, by not eating enough fruit ;-).

SNOOPY

[nztx]

Countdown looming for when the Fat Lady sings from atop the MFB Kitchen Bench.
after the pots pans, boxes and other gear suddenly gets swept aside..

Will there be shock, booing, clapping or a hail of plates and knives raining down on this auspicious occasion
after mixed confusing signals in recent past and waters have become more choppy ? ;)

Something must be up, for some of the fatter resident mice to want to flee, while the SP remains mostly limp flapping in the occasional breeze ;)

[silverblizzard888]

Pretty good result, inline with what I was expecting.

My Food Bag releases FY24 H1 Financial Results


- Revenue of $83.8 million, compared to $94.4 million in FY23 H1


- Bargain Box delivery volumes up 12% year-on-year across H1


- 61,600 active customers at the end of FY24 H1, up from 57,500 at the end of FY23


- EBITDA of $7.4 million, versus $11.5 million in FY23 H1


- Gross margin of 47.9%, holding in line with the 49.3% during FY23 H1


- Net profit after tax (NPAT) of $2.5 million, versus $5.9 million in FY23 H1

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/422196

[haewai]

Interim report coming out next week. My guess for the financials will be:

Revenue $80-85m - Its expected that this years revenue will be lower than the prior year which was $94m. I think it will be inline with 2019 numbers with a slight adjustment for inflation.

NPAT $2-2.5m - Last 6 months of FY23 yielded $2m NPAT, but with cost cutting measures I think they should be able to deliver slightly above it even though business revenue has dropped.

Bang on SB, nice

[silverblizzard888]

Bang on SB, nice

Happy they met the expectations. With cost more under control and active customer numbers up, their second half could be slightly better than the first half. For that I'm estimating for the full year.

FY24 estimate
Revenue : $175-$185m
NPAT : $5.5 - $6m

[Balance]

Nice one, SB.

[Master98]

Pretty good result, inline with what I was expecting.

My Food Bag releases FY24 H1 Financial Results


- Revenue of $83.8 million, compared to $94.4 million in FY23 H1


- Bargain Box delivery volumes up 12% year-on-year across H1


- 61,600 active customers at the end of FY24 H1, up from 57,500 at the end of FY23


- EBITDA of $7.4 million, versus $11.5 million in FY23 H1


- Gross margin of 47.9%, holding in line with the 49.3% during FY23 H1


- Net profit after tax (NPAT) of $2.5 million, versus $5.9 million in FY23 H1

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/422196
just near the top end of your guess, welll done. but their attached wrong result form(FY2023), lol

[Rawz]

well done Silver. Incredible that they grew active customers!!

So its trading on a 5-6 p/e FY24?

Generating just over $1m fcf H1

Looks like MFB will survive after all lol

[Sideshow Bob]

Just released an amended:

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/422205

This announcement is a re-release of the announcement released by MFB at 8.30am today 23 November.
The file "NZX Results Announcement Form" attached is replaced with a correct file.

[JSwan]

Oh whoops edit

[bottomfeeder]

Tough going, but acceptable considering a SP of under 15cents. However not acceptable for those investors who paid over $1.50. This company has to go private. Its life as a Public Listed company is over.

[blackcap]

Tough going, but acceptable considering a SP of under 15cents. However not acceptable for those investors who paid over $1.50. This company has to go private. Its life as a Public Listed company is over.

Maybe acceptable, but the trend is the real worry. This may post a loss soon if things continue. And then greater and greater losses. Not sure I would buy at 13c.

[ralph]

Well estimated /predicted Result S B ,any company in the high end foodie sector that can make profits & improve volumes /customer base .in this depressed market has gotta be a bargain at this s p .
I see dividends are suspended as per most other companies & that's sensible paying off debts & improving technology for future profits.
Sounds like the new pick technology in the auckland & christchurch operational centers is now working well & has been a good investment .
I agree Siver Blizzard good result better than I expected bodes well for the future

[Lego_Man]

Well estimated /predicted Result S B ,any company in the high end foodie sector that can make profits & improve volumes /customer base .in this depressed market has gotta be a bargain at this s p .
I see dividends are suspended as per most other companies & that's sensible paying off debts & improving technology for future profits.
Sounds like the new pick technology in the auckland & christchurch operational centers is now working well & has been a good investment .
I agree Siver Blizzard good result better than I expected bodes well for the future


Decent result. Mark Winter knows the business well and will be running a tight ship.

Disclosure: bought at 20c and 14c.

[nztx]

Gross margin % drop is a concern.. a similar drop going forward will do what ?

If that's seen how much added volume needed to offset ?

Headwinds, tightening times, cost increases all come into the scenario

[Rawz]

Interest costs for the 6 months were $1m on $14.1m debt..??

That means interest rate is something like 14%? Lol Wow pretty good margin for the lender

[Rawz]

The main issue they have is the back to back to back drop in deliveries. They are doing all they can to stop this trend including lowering their margins but as per the numbers it’s not enough. It’s killing their economies of scale.

my guess is this won’t stop until interest rates drop and households free up some more cash. I suspect 1-2 more half years of falling deliveries before the trend reverses. Just my opinion based nothing

[troyvdh]

woof woof woof

[Baa_Baa]

The main issue they have is the back to back to back drop in deliveries. They are doing all they can to stop this trend including lowering their margins but as per the numbers it’s not enough. It’s killing their economies of scale.

my guess is this won’t stop until interest rates drop and households free up some more cash. I suspect 1-2 more half years of falling deliveries before the trend reverses. Just my opinion based nothing

How can they have increased 'active customers' but have falling deliveries (their only despatch method) and falling revenues? Something doesn't seem to add up here, maybe I'm missing the point.

Anyway, this is a business going backwards at a great rate of knots, I'd soon be questioning ongoing viability. Take a look at the assets vs liabilities.

It will take many years of profit just to balance the books, assuming they're still profitable. If this is going concern a year or two from now and hasn't sold to private or liquidated, I'll be surprised.

[Rawz]

How can they have increased 'active customers' but have falling deliveries (their only despatch method) and falling revenues? Something doesn't seem to add up here, maybe I'm missing the point.

Anyway, this is a business going backwards at a great rate of knots, I'd soon be questioning ongoing viability. Take a look at the assets vs liabilities.

It will take many years of profit just to balance the books, assuming they're still profitable. If this is going concern a year or two from now and hasn't sold to private or liquidated, I'll be surprised.

Yes I wondered that too. Notice they put the increase in active customers in the highlighted bullet points front page.. then a nice surprise later when you read that deliveries are down..

If i could be bothered i would model the number of deliveries at 600,000 and 550,000 to see just how bad things could get, like ultimate worst case scenario. Maybe SilverB has already done this? Shout out mate if you have.

If it wasnt for that massive $14.1m debt mountain it would be a fairly safe bet but right now too risky for me.

[blackcap]

How can they have increased 'active customers' but have falling deliveries (their only despatch method) and falling revenues? Something doesn't seem to add up here, maybe I'm missing the point.

Anyway, this is a business going backwards at a great rate of knots, I'd soon be questioning ongoing viability. Take a look at the assets vs liabilities.

It will take many years of profit just to balance the books, assuming they're still profitable. If this is going concern a year or two from now and hasn't sold to private or liquidated, I'll be surprised.

Isn't it because they are pushing Bargain Box, and in the process cannibalizing's their own customers? That explains the falling revenue and will lead to less profit and ultimately going concern issues.

[carrom74]

Interim report coming out next week. My guess for the financials will be:

Revenue $80-85m - Its expected that this years revenue will be lower than the prior year which was $94m. I think it will be inline with 2019 numbers with a slight adjustment for inflation.

NPAT $2-2.5m - Last 6 months of FY23 yielded $2m NPAT, but with cost cutting measures I think they should be able to deliver slightly above it even though business revenue has dropped.

Well done SB.

The sp will be under sustained pressure for a weewhile until the big boys have dumped all of their stock.

[Rawz]

Isn't it because they are pushing Bargain Box, and in the process cannibalizing's their own customers? That explains the falling revenue and will lead to less profit and ultimately going concern issues.

Nah but what we saying is they have 4000 more customers but delivered 80,000 less boxes…

[blackcap]

Nah but what we saying is they have 4000 more customers but delivered 80,000 less boxes…

I guess that's customers going from more boxes a week to less? Makes sense in these difficult times.

[kiwical]

Nah but what we saying is they have 4000 more customers but delivered 80,000 less boxes…They are putting lots of advertising out there for half price boxes etc. People sign up get the minimum then required then cancel without making it an ongoing thing is my guess. I've done that myself to try them.

So more customers yes. But those customers are only getting boxes occasionally rather than an ongoing continuous subscription.

[blackcap]

They are putting lots of advertising out there for half price boxes etc. People sign up get the minimum then required then cancel without making it an ongoing thing is my guess. I've done that myself to try them.

So more customers yes. But those customers are only getting boxes occasionally rather than an ongoing continuous subscription.

If that is the case, then this is terminal.

[winner69]

What happens when they increase prices next week?

From BusinessDesk…



Winter was also asked about pricing across the meal-kit portfolio as My Food Bag has had Bargain Box – its cheapest option – in a price freeze for the past six months as part of a campaign to show it was a cheaper alternative to supermarket shopping. The price freeze is set to finish at the end of November, and Winter told the analysts call that the company had seen “good success” in it, but the company had also seen food price inflation through that period “continue to be in play” along with other costs including labour and fuel.
.

[nztx]

What happens when they increase prices next week?

From BusinessDesk…



Winter was also asked about pricing across the meal-kit portfolio as My Food Bag has had Bargain Box – its cheapest option – in a price freeze for the past six months as part of a campaign to show it was a cheaper alternative to supermarket shopping. The price freeze is set to finish at the end of November, and Winter told the analysts call that the company had seen “good success” in it, but the company had also seen food price inflation through that period “continue to be in play” along with other costs including labour and fuel.
.


Smaller boxes & rations might save the day .. time to roll out a reduced Starter pack ? :)

[winner69]

Why are punters not renewing subs ….bits from Winter in BusinessDesk

“What we have seen steadily rise over the past 18 months is the reason code ‘out of my budget’, and particularly through the second half of last year, that reason code saw an increase”

And

Meal-kits no longer fitting into customers' lifestyles was also remaining a “fairly steady” reason, he added.

[nztx]

Why are punters not renewing subs ….bits from Winter in BusinessDesk

“What we have seen steadily rise over the past 18 months is the reason code ‘out of my budget’, and particularly through the second half of last year, that reason code saw an increase”

And

Meal-kits no longer fitting into customers' lifestyles was also remaining a “fairly steady” reason, he added.


be more of that likely on the way too IMO

Harder times, COL, more Mortgage rate resets, a lid on wage increases, the global & local economy impacting back into higher unemployment & business attrition

that's before the can of worms Labour left behind gets put under the microscope & new medicine prescribed too ..

[Rawz]

Wonder what their steady state number of customers is

[troyvdh]

A bit out of left field I agree...but why dont folk just buy their own food..

[nztx]

Wonder what their steady state number of customers is


For sure .. all very well increasing Custy numbers, but if a quotient are one hit wonders or
old history & never ordered again ?

If MFB was working the book effectively it should be seeing increased volume & revenue :)

Inflationary price increases should be adding to revenue

[Rawz]

A bit out of left field I agree...but why dont folk just buy their own food..

Because work and kids and gymnastics and touch rugby and washing and cleaning and and and and

MFB does have its market. Just need to figure out where the bottom is lol. Could be a great great opportunity here in time. Like it could get way oversold down to 7- 10 cents range. Who knows. It’s got shrinking earnings, lots of debt and some instos still selling down.. could happen

[bottomfeeder]

My own experience is that "made" meals were tasty, a little bit expensive, but not a deal breaker. But the nature of the meal is that they are way too salty. Not the healthiest meal.

[silverblizzard888]

Alright heres my numbers and how I see the situation. Problem with all the current comparisons is that the business is being compared with the recent years, but those were pretty abnormal years where people wanted to stay home or were restricted to being at home, creating a great deal of demand for the situation. Whats changed now is people are going back to their normal lifestyles so everything has to revert back to normal and not the golden run brought about by covid. Reason I could make an accurate prediction for the company is because I'm skipping the period where covid had an impact. For most businesses the impact was negative, while for MFB it was positive, but at the end of the day we have to revert back to what is normal.





All numbers lead back to FY19 & 20, the time before covid.


Revenue
FY24 - H1 $83.8m (x2 = $167.6m)
FY23 $175m
FY22 $194m
FY21 $190m
FY20 $153
FY19 $156


Deliveries
FY24 – H1 652,000
FY23 – H1 732,000
FY22 – H1 808,000
FY21 – H1 634,000

Gross margins (ingredients)
FY24 – H1 47.9%
FY23 – H1 49.3%
FY22 – H1 48.1%
FY21 – H1 44.5%
FY20 – H1 43.5%

Active Customers
FY 24 – H2 (November) 61,700
FY24 – H1 - 61,600
FY23 – H2 - 57,500
FY23 - H1 - 66,700
FY22 – H2 – 61,700
FY22 - H1 - 76,900
FY21 - H2– 66,492
FY21 - H1 - 74,400
FY20 – 62,700


For the definition of an active customer by MFB:
Active Customers = Acquired Customers + Retained Customers + Reactivated Customers

Acquired Customer - has ordered for the first time in the current thirteen weekperiod who had not previously ordered.
Retained Customer - has ordered in the current thirteen week period and who had previously made a purchase in the last thirteen weeks.
Reactivated Customer - has ordered in the current thirteen week period who hadnot previously made a purchase in the last thirteen weeks and had ordered from My Food Bagin a prior thirteen week period.


Average Order Value
Fy24 - H1 - $128.50
Fy23 - H1 - $129
Fy22 - H1 - $121.80
Fy21 - H1 - $124
Fy20 - H1 - $120.2

Contribution Margin
FY24 - H1 - 22%
FY23 - H1 - 25.2%
FY22 - H1 - 26.3%
FY21 - H1 - 23.5%
FY20 - H1 - 21.6%

[Rawz]

Good work SB.

How many deliveries in Fy20 and FY19 do you know?

What was NPAT for all the periods?

[silverblizzard888]

Good work SB.

How many deliveries in Fy20 and FY19 do you know?

What was NPAT for all the periods?

Delivery volume for FY20 is 1.25m, no data on FY19

NPAT for all periods:
2023 : $7.85m
2022 : $20.01m
FY21 : $16.7m (if not including listing costs), after listing cost NPAT $2.44m
FY20 : $8.2m
FY19 : $7.2m

Normal range of profit looks to be in the $7-8m range.

[kiwical]

A bit out of left field I agree...but why dont folk just buy their own food..There are plenty of varied reasons. From the 2 families I know who use it. 1 has no transport and no supermarket close enough to walk. The other does it as a "treat" and will do it for a week every month or so. Their reason is young family and one less thing to worry about.

[silverblizzard888]

This article basically sums it up why people choose to buy meal kits or eat out rather than doing it themselves. A big factor is usually time constraints and no one is more time constraint than a couple who are both working and have kids.

"longer working days, hours spent commuting, shift-work, two parents working and many other issues are juggled with families also trying to manage different aged children and their after-school activities and sports."

“We know the reality is many Kiwis are regularly walking into a supermarket around 4-5 PM still not knowing what they are having for dinner,”

"The research also showed planning recipes and ingredients are considered the biggest barrier to meal preparation with three in ten (30%) Kiwi households struggling with this task."

https://www.nzdoctor.co.nz/article/undoctored/research-reveals-top-barriers-kiwis-cooking-healthy-meals

[Lego_Man]

This article basically sums it up why people choose to buy meal kits or eat out rather than doing it themselves. A big factor is usually time constraints and no one is more time constraint than a couple who are both working and have kids.

"longer working days, hours spent commuting, shift-work, two parents working and many other issues are juggled with families also trying to manage different aged children and their after-school activities and sports."

“We know the reality is many Kiwis are regularly walking into a supermarket around 4-5 PM still not knowing what they are having for dinner,”

"The research also showed planning recipes and ingredients are considered the biggest barrier to meal preparation with three in ten (30%) Kiwi households struggling with this task."

https://www.nzdoctor.co.nz/article/undoctored/research-reveals-top-barriers-kiwis-cooking-healthy-meals


Quite simply the time mental overhead associated with meal planning and shopping is enough that i'll pay to have it take off my hands. Particularly now that the MFB offering has been considerably broadened - meal variation is much larger and better than i could do at home without a lot of planning. And you can do the addons like extra meat, milk, veg, ready meals etc. It's a vastly better product than it was 2 years ago.

[silverblizzard888]

Quite simply the time mental overhead associated with meal planning and shopping is enough that i'll pay to have it take off my hands. Particularly now that the MFB offering has been considerably broadened - meal variation is much larger and better than i could do at home without a lot of planning. And you can do the addons like extra meat, milk, veg, ready meals etc. It's a vastly better product than it was 2 years ago.

Precisely! Don't even get me started about the overlooked expenses associated with doing it yourself, like the depreciative value of the car driving to the supermarket, the over buying of ingredients that don't come in the right size, the overspending that happens at the supermarket when they get you into their snack trap, the increased chance you meet someone and have an affair with. All solved with MFB, just head home after work and prep food and done.

[Rawz]

Lol SB :lol::lol::lol:

[stoploss]

Precisely! Don't even get me started about the overlooked expenses associated with doing it yourself, like the depreciative value of the car driving to the supermarket, the over buying of ingredients that don't come in the right size, the overspending that happens at the supermarket when they get you into their snack trap, the increased chance you meet someone and have an affair with. All solved with MFB, just head home after work and prep food and done.
Even better S/B you stay in the office an extra hour earn $ 250, which pays for the Food bag . Have your children prepare the meal.
MFB have taught a generation how to follow a recipe and cook , valuable skills in an Uber eats world.

[IAK]

"the increased chance you meet someone and have an affair with...."
You need to change your username from Silverblizzard to Silver Fox! 🤣

[silverblizzard888]

Well its a perceptive reality with all possibilities the minute you walk out the door.

Interesting trade this morning 440,000 shares in one trade. Someone or an insto is definitely interested in the stock, takes a decent bite of the selling pressure. Harbour doing its best to reset the books before the year ends.

[Master98]

Well its a perceptive reality with all possibilities the minute you walk out the door.

Interesting trade this morning 440,000 shares in one trade. Someone or an insto is definitely interested in the stock, takes a decent bite of the selling pressure. Harbour doing its best to reset the books before the year ends.
I think because Jarden upgrade this year's earning.

[blackcap]

I think because Jarden upgrade this year's earning.

And the stock price continues its inexorable fall.

[silverblizzard888]

Instos intent on getting out before the end of the year is whats causing the share price to drop heavily. Every time someone buys all the stock at the lowest offer price they instantly load another sell order in and if theres a decent size buyer order close to the market price they will sell into it. Hard to beat that selling enthusiasm. Must not want to end the year with the name still on their holding list.

[blackcap]

Instos intent on getting out before the end of the year is whats causing the share price to drop heavily. Every time someone buys all the stock at the lowest offer price they instantly load another sell order in and if theres a decent size buyer order close to the market price they will sell into it. Hard to beat that selling enthusiasm. Must not want to end the year with the name still on their holding list.

I think Instos can see the writing on the wall. This thing is sick and needs a miracle to survive.

[ralph]

I think Instos can see the writing on the wall. This thing is sick and needs a miracle to survive.
I do not, and totally agree with the silver B.
Glad I don't have a kiwisaver with those fools selling like that its scandalous what they do with other people's money ,but hey ho ts getting that time of year again

[shareman]

Why doesn't Nadia Lim care more about her company than getting taxpayer funded scholarships so her and her husband can travel around the world.

https://www.odt.co.nz/rural-life/rural-people/farm-entrepreneur-travel-scholarship

[bulltrap]

I think Instos can see the writing on the wall. This thing is sick and needs a miracle to survive.

How so? It's been cashflow positive for yonks, and the latest result does demonstrate ability to scale down with demand.

Following from SB888's comments, I've been comparing the Prospectus (https://investors.myfoodbag.co.nz/FormBuilder/_Resource/_module/yjIwqod6gUO7ZC-T4Wdz6Q/file/doc/My_Food_Bag_PDS.pdf) with the latest half-year results for FY24 H1 (https://investors.myfoodbag.co.nz/FormBuilder/_Resource/_module/yjIwqod6gUO7ZC-T4Wdz6Q/file/MFB_FY24_Interim_Report.pdf). From the prospectus, if you look past the outrageous offer price ($1.85!), fantastical FY24 forecasts, nebulous talk of 'Horizon Two', and abnormally-high demand during COVID-affected FY21 H1 (dressed up as sustainable growth), you can still get a good prediction of future performance from the FY20 H1 actuals.

Revenue
FY20 H1 - $77.3M
FY24 H1 - $83.8M

EBITDA
FY20 H1 - $6.6M
FY24 H1 - $7.4M

NPAT
FY20 H1 - $3.2M
FY24 H1 - $2.5M

Active customers
FY20 H1 - 60K (roughly, from a chart)
FY24 H1 - 61.6K

Deliveries (rolling 1-year)
FY20 H1 - 1200K (roughly, from chart)
FY24 H1 - 1270K

Can't compare debt directly, but post-IPO debt as per prospectus was expected to be $26.1M, now (FY24 H1) down to $14.1M.

The sky isn't falling just yet - but sure she ain't delivering the growth that IPO subscribers hoped and paid for.

[blackcap]

How so? It's been cashflow positive for yonks, and the latest result does demonstrate ability to scale down with demand.

Following from SB888's comments, I've been comparing the Prospectus (https://investors.myfoodbag.co.nz/FormBuilder/_Resource/_module/yjIwqod6gUO7ZC-T4Wdz6Q/file/doc/My_Food_Bag_PDS.pdf) with the latest half-year results for FY24 H1 (https://investors.myfoodbag.co.nz/FormBuilder/_Resource/_module/yjIwqod6gUO7ZC-T4Wdz6Q/file/MFB_FY24_Interim_Report.pdf). From the prospectus, if you look past the outrageous offer price ($1.85!), fantastical FY24 forecasts, nebulous talk of 'Horizon Two', and abnormally-high demand during COVID-affected FY21 H1 (dressed up as sustainable growth), you can still get a good prediction of future performance from the FY20 H1 actuals.

Revenue
FY20 H1 - $77.3M
FY24 H1 - $83.8M

EBITDA
FY20 H1 - $6.6M
FY24 H1 - $7.4M

NPAT
FY20 H1 - $3.2M
FY24 H1 - $2.5M

Active customers
FY20 H1 - 600K (roughly, from a chart)
FY24 H1 - 616K

Deliveries (rolling 1-year)
FY20 H1 - 1200K (roughly, from chart)
FY24 H1 - 1270K

Can't compare debt directly, but post-IPO debt as per prospectus was expected to be $26.1M, now (FY24 H1) down to $14.1M.

The sky isn't falling just yet - but sure she ain't delivering the growth that IPO subscribers hoped and paid for.

Revenues are up, but NPAT is down and declining.

Many more new entrants to market post 2020. I do not like their chances.

[nztx]

How so? It's been cashflow positive for yonks, and the latest result does demonstrate ability to scale down with demand.

Following from SB888's comments, I've been comparing the Prospectus (https://investors.myfoodbag.co.nz/FormBuilder/_Resource/_module/yjIwqod6gUO7ZC-T4Wdz6Q/file/doc/My_Food_Bag_PDS.pdf) with the latest half-year results for FY24 H1 (https://investors.myfoodbag.co.nz/FormBuilder/_Resource/_module/yjIwqod6gUO7ZC-T4Wdz6Q/file/MFB_FY24_Interim_Report.pdf). From the prospectus, if you look past the outrageous offer price ($1.85!), fantastical FY24 forecasts, nebulous talk of 'Horizon Two', and abnormally-high demand during COVID-affected FY21 H1 (dressed up as sustainable growth), you can still get a good prediction of future performance from the FY20 H1 actuals.

Revenue
FY20 H1 - $77.3M
FY24 H1 - $83.8M

EBITDA
FY20 H1 - $6.6M
FY24 H1 - $7.4M

NPAT
FY20 H1 - $3.2M
FY24 H1 - $2.5M

Active customers
FY20 H1 - 600K (roughly, from a chart)
FY24 H1 - 616K

Deliveries (rolling 1-year)
FY20 H1 - 1200K (roughly, from chart)
FY24 H1 - 1270K

Can't compare debt directly, but post-IPO debt as per prospectus was expected to be $26.1M, now (FY24 H1) down to $14.1M.

The sky isn't falling just yet - but sure she ain't delivering the growth that IPO subscribers hoped and paid for.



Good friend - something wrong with your active costumers there .. about 10x what was mentioned earlier

if it ever got to 1 in 8.33 of the population - this thing would really be flying, that is if costs, margins etc were under control, mind you the boardroom junket might be higher and the bod on the door counting the departing boxes would be very rich indeed ;)

And there wouldn't be room on the bench for the Baconiser to have any chance of putting out leisurely PR releases in the calmness of all the unbridled Bag chaos going on 24/7 ..

[nztx]

Revenues are up, but NPAT is down and declining.

Many more new entrants to market post 2020. I do not like their chances.


How many of the new entrants have the luxury of all the extra Boardroom claptrap, NZX red tape
& fees, a heirem of Audit nitpickers and necessity to report what is or isn't working, to justify
the extortionate hyped up take-off cost along with fully inflated intangibles balloons to compliment ? :)

[silverblizzard888]

Revenues are up, but NPAT is down and declining.

Many more new entrants to market post 2020. I do not like their chances.

Their business model works best when ingredient prices are stable and order numbers are consistent so they can ensure the right cost structure because the peak years left them with a very high cost structure that they've been trying to unwound. The last two years have probably been the worse it could get for this type of business model. With inflation settling and customer numbers remaining steady they are through the worse of it; also the high interest rate they are paying on their debt, its all contributing to low profits. With prices stabilizing and cost being cut to match their orders, as well as a focus on paying down debt and eventually lower interest rates, they will start earning better profits going forward.

Thats true there were many new entrants post 2020 and I saw so many for all specialties over the years and even suggestion that once supermarkets started copying them that would be the end. Its all happened from the many new entrants to the supermarkets doing their own offerings yet MFB have withstood it all and come out alright; if anything we are seeing a period of consolidation where the smaller players are closing up shop because of the lack of scale and not being able to justify the rise in costs. Theres 3 main players dominating the market and its MFB, Hellofresh and Woop, the rest don't have scale and serve a small niche customer base.

[bulltrap]

Good friend - something wrong with your active costumers there .. about 10x what was mentioned earlier

Whoops, misplaced the decimal. Fixing, thanks for highlighting.

Should've been:

Active customers
FY20 H1 - 60K (roughly, from a chart)
FY24 H1 - 61.6K

[carrom74]

Harbour and Jarden”s dump continues unabated. Another 15 million to go…( that’ will take 6-9 months at this rate) —average price $.132c

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/422732

[bulltrap]

(ditto)

Harbour/Jarden continuing their selldown, as per today's SPH notice (https://announcements.nzx.com/detail/422732) - down to 6.3%.

They burned through 1% in around 14 trading days, almost 200K shares per day average, and directly accounting for 60% of trading volume.

Hot potatoes.

[Rawz]

Not point in buying with those guys selling. 6-9 months to get rid of the rest means we get to see another reporting period.

so SP probably be depressed with the selling pressure.. we all get a free looksies to see if deliveries have stopped their slide or found a bottom in the next update

[stoploss]

Not point in buying with those guys selling. 6-9 months to get rid of the rest means we get to see another reporting period.

so SP probably be depressed with the selling pressure.. we all get a free looksies to see if deliveries have stopped their slide or found a bottom in the next update
Might be sooner if someone steps up and takes them out .....

[silverblizzard888]

The irony of it all is that Jarden has a 25 cent rating on the stock yet they are selling. Just plain wrong when instos say one thing and do another.

[troyvdh]

I can highly recommend Chris Lees latest post...today.

[silverblizzard888]

I can highly recommend Chris Lees latest post...today.

Which post are you alluding to?

[winner69]

Which post are you alluding to?


Chris doesn’t like people posting links to his posts but if you go to https://www.chrislee.co.nz and click on Taking Stock under Newsletters you’ll find it

[silverblizzard888]

Chris doesn’t like people posting links to his posts but if you go to https://www.chrislee.co.nz and click on Taking Stock under Newsletters you’ll find it

Thanks Winner, just had a read. I like the words he used that MFB could be a 'star performer' next year.

[Rawz]

Thanks Winner, just had a read. I like the words he used that MFB could be a 'star performer' next year.

it could go supernova even?

[silverblizzard888]

it could go supernova even?

Yeah onces Harbour stops selling, they are worse than an index fund trying to rebalance. This stock will turn into a diamond with all that selling pressure.

[troyvdh]

Silver ..with respect how many years have you invested in shares for.

[silverblizzard888]

Silver ..with respect how many years have you invested in shares for.

It would be a decade now, I think I found sharetrader months after starting and what a journey it has been. How about yourself? Looks about at least 2 decades judging by your account joining date, much more time than me, won't be the first MFB scenario you've seen.

[silverblizzard888]

Went through some of the financials this morning to see how MFB usually performed in H2 for NPAT and apart from FY23 MFB has always produced a higher profit in H2.

NPAT


FY24 H1
$2.5m


FY23 H2
$2m


H1
$5.9m


FY22 H2
$10.6m


H1
$9.4m


FY21 H2
$9m


H1
$7.5m


FY20 H2
$8.2m


H1
$3.2m



Bonus factors contributing to a stronger H2 profit will be:

Highbrook site closed at the end of September, leasing cost was about $1 million p.a, the site is closed and potentially reduces their leasing expense by $500k.

Growth without added overhead MFB was able to add their new Meat boxes without any added overhead cost and minimal variable cost due to the new pick technology. The new offering generates extra volume and some extra profit.

Lower Interest cost with a focus to pay back debt and an interest rate as high as 14% on their current debt they would be saving $140k for every $1m they pay off, which will contribute to an increased profit as they pay off debt throughout H2.

Efficencies being fully realised in H2 with parts of H1 being about learning the new system they will be use to the new technology and be operating with full efficiencies in H2. Requiring less personnel and committing less errors which means less complaints, refunds and wasted products.

Less one off cost in H2 such as commissioning cost being incurred in H1 due to installing the new machinery like the pick tech and light to pick tech and cost associated with consolidating the 2 North Island sites.

[nztx]

Time for impearments yet .. to avoid paying a dividend or at least cap it at around 1/2 a cent ? :)

can never get too excited about things until the Head Bacon screams for the Fat Lady to sing ;)

[Dlownz]

Still a falling knife and very sharp at that.
I still think they have too many headwinds coming in the next year.
While some businesses are still busy others are dead in the water. Interest rate increases from the last year are still to catch up to most people.
I still see another 2 years of pain.

[Rawz]

Still a falling knife and very sharp at that.
I still think they have too many headwinds coming in the next year.
While some businesses are still busy others are dead in the water. Interest rate increases from the last year are still to catch up to most people.
I still see another 2 years of pain.
Well said agree with you

[Baa_Baa]

33 months since listing and only 3 of them has a green candle on the chart. SP down 93%, it's almost hard to believe every share sold had a buyer, like who would buy this and why?

[Bill Smith]

That's a very good point. I would class this stock as extremely risky [to buy] and with virtually zero upside to allow for that risk.

Yes. One wonders what the SP projectory would be without Sharesies.

[Sideshow Bob]

Yes. One wonders what the SP projectory would be without Sharesies.

Sharesies nominee company doesn't appear on the list on 20 largest shareholders.

Need a 0.95% holding to get into the top 20.

[silverblizzard888]

Was wondering when Carter was going to be buying at these levels. He always buys when he believes the share price is at a good value, nice to have some confirmation from the board.

Chairman Tony Carter bought 100,000 Shares
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/423341

Director Mark Powell bought 170,940 shares
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/423342

[Rawz]

Was wondering when Carter was going to be buying at these levels. He always buys when he believes the share price is at a good value, nice to have some confirmation from the board.

Chairman Tony Carter bought 100,000 Shares
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/423341

Director Mark Powell bought 170,940 shares
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/423342

Small $$$s thou. Might be seen as a weak attempt to show support. Like if they bought $100k and $170k worth then the market would get excited

[nztx]

Was wondering when Carter was going to be buying at these levels. He always buys when he believes the share price is at a good value, nice to have some confirmation from the board.

Chairman Tony Carter bought 100,000 Shares
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/423341

Director Mark Powell bought 170,940 shares
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/423342


Just remember .. each share bought is potentially another's financial nightmare realised ;)

[Sideshow Bob]

Just remember .. each share bought is potentially another's financial nightmare realised ;)

Harbour keep feeding the market....

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MFB/423430/409485.pdf

[Rawz]

why do Harbour and Jarden report together?

next one looks like they will be ceasing to be a substantial holder

[winner69]

why do Harbour and Jarden report together?

next one looks like they will be ceasing to be a substantial holder

Related parties


Jarden own most of Harbour

[bulltrap]

Harbour keep feeding the market....

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MFB/423430/409485.pdf

They've even stepped up their efforts - around 270K shares per day average (up from 200K recently), accounting for about 70% of trading volume.

Gotta pose the question - if they know something the market at large doesn't, would they be dumping so brazenly?

[nztx]

They've even stepped up their efforts - around 270K shares per day average (up from 200K recently), accounting for about 70% of trading volume.

Gotta pose the question - if they know something the market at large doesn't, would they be dumping so brazenly?



Probably just trying to ensure that everyone else's Christmas Bag includes a fair quota of Baconiser Delight ;)

After all the Turkey & Cheap Plonk have probably had to be cancelled in some offices, so things might be slightly grim ..

[silverblizzard888]

They've even stepped up their efforts - around 270K shares per day average (up from 200K recently), accounting for about 70% of trading volume.

Gotta pose the question - if they know something the market at large doesn't, would they be dumping so brazenly?

Its mainly Harbour selling rather than Jarden, so most likely their investing policy has been triggered like not investing in small caps so they are by policy forced to liquidate to ensure they maintain their discipline. Some instos invest by the book like a drivers manual, which is so annoying since they have single handedly crushed the share price.

[Toddy]

If there was a take over offer then Jarden would probably value the company at $1.85 per share.

[Baa_Baa]

Its mainly Harbour selling rather than Jarden, so most likely their investing policy has been triggered like not investing in small caps so they are by policy forced to liquidate to ensure they maintain their discipline. Some instos invest by the book like a drivers manual, which is so annoying since they have single handedly crushed the share price.

More annoying imo is that they still have shed-loads of shares, they'll soon drop under the 5% disclosure threshold, they could be unloading the whole lot that they hold and that will weigh on the SP for a long time at current liquidity.

[Rawz]

Its mainly Harbour selling rather than Jarden, so most likely their investing policy has been triggered like not investing in small caps so they are by policy forced to liquidate to ensure they maintain their discipline. Some instos invest by the book like a drivers manual, which is so annoying since they have single handedly crushed the share price.

Has Jarden been selling? I haven’t been following the disclosures

[silverblizzard888]

Has Jarden been selling? I haven’t been following the disclosures

They haven't been in the past 2 disclosures, but they had been in prior disclosures. Not sure their reason for stopping, so can't be sure if they will resume or not.

[JSwan]

They haven't been in the past 2 disclosures, but they had been in prior disclosures. Not sure their reason for stopping, so can't be sure if they will resume or not.

How has Jarden not been called out yet for their BS calling a TP 25c while doing the exact opposite in the market and selling 😂

[silverblizzard888]

How has Jarden not been called out yet for their BS calling a TP 25c while doing the exact opposite in the market and selling 

Exactly the case, but I think its in a way obvious why no ones calling them out on it because it damages future relationships especially with one of NZs largest financial instos and no firm or media is risking their skin over that, not exactly a career making move.

[winner69]

How has Jarden not been called out yet for their BS calling a TP 25c while doing the exact opposite in the market and selling 😂


Chinese walls they say lol

[silverblizzard888]

Interesting that the price heads up the minute instos stopped selling. Must of decided to have a day off. Big difference when instos aren't involved.

[Toddy]

Either that or the most junior guy in the office who was in charge of the off loading MFB stock had a sick day after going out for Xmas drinks.

[nztx]

Either that or the most junior guy in the office who was in charge of the off loading MFB stock had a sick day after going out for Xmas drinks.


The guys in the Office opposite might have realised that they can buy back more cheaply inhouse from just across the corridor :)

[Master98]

off market trade 7m shares @12.5 cents.
hopefully dumping finished, then sp starting recovery.

[silverblizzard888]

off market trade 7m shares @12.5 cents.
hopefully dumping finished, then sp starting recovery.

Good chance thats Habours 6,981,529 shares they had left. Explains why there was no selling by them yesterday. Wonder who bought them out. Share price is already at 13 cents so recovery is going well.

[Master98]

Good chance thats Habours 6,981,529 shares they had left. Explains why there was no selling by them yesterday. Wonder who bought them out. Share price is already at 13 cents so recovery is going well.
Directors buy shares sending signal to market that business is going as management expected.

[bulltrap]

Good chance thats Habours 6,981,529 they had left. Explains why there was no selling by them yesterday. Wonder who bought them out. Share price is already at 13 cents so recovery is going well.

Maybe they topped up to a round number on market, and then transferred them to the related Jarden account. Not sure if a notice would be issued in such a case - although it's more than 1%, their total holding as disclosed would be unchanged.

Also not sure if the transacted price is a clue - whether it's consistent with a related party transaction.

Let's see what comes out, or not, on Monday.

In any case, Xmas sale might just have finished early.

[silverblizzard888]

Directors buy shares sending signal to market that business is going as management expected.

Yes thats one of the key messages from directors buying that all is well and going as expected.


Maybe they topped up to a round number on market, and then transferred them to the related Jarden account. Not sure if a notice would be issued in such a case - although it's more than 1%, their total holding as disclosed would be unchanged.

Also not sure if the transacted price is a clue - whether it's consistent with a related party transaction.

Let's see what comes out, or not, on Monday.

In any case, Xmas sale might just have finished early.

There should be a notice since they still hold over 5% when combined with jarden on their last disclosure, likely a notice on monday to tell us if it was infact them. That may well be the end of the christmas sale and the end of the endless selling pressure.

[nztx]

When do they next report how many bag fulls they got ? ;)

[silverblizzard888]

When do they next report how many bag fulls they got ? ;)

They last reported in November so we won't get the full results till May, but they may update the market at the start of next year. Hopefully its enough to feed all our families.

[winner69]

Small $$$s thou. Might be seen as a weak attempt to show support. Like if they bought $100k and $170k worth then the market would get excited

Most see MFB down in the dumps and a dog of a stock at the moment

Don’t forget that that Cheap Cars was much the same arpt beginning of year

MFB could be this years 2CC

[Rawz]

Most see MFB down in the dumps and a dog of a stock at the moment

Don’t forget that that Cheap Cars was much the same arpt beginning of year

MFB could be this years 2CC


Yes it’s on the watchlist. Just need to get through this slide in deliveries and see where it bottoms out. Why bet now? The insiders certainly not betting big with their $10k purchases. Better to be safe and wait for the next report.

The other problem MFB has (and that 2CC didn’t) is the big pile of debt crushing it. Can’t see a dividend anytime soon. Hard to see a phoenix moment here

[nztx]

Most see MFB down in the dumps and a dog of a stock at the moment

Don’t forget that that Cheap Cars was much the same arpt beginning of year

MFB could be this years 2CC


so someone's past pain with a discarded bag should be viewed as another's potential multibagger gain ? ;)

not a bad view of things, but might have to watch in case the fish heads jump off in a hurry

A shame things haven't gone sub-cent yet, so we could have some real fun .. :)

[nztx]

Yes it’s on the watchlist. Just need to get through this slide in deliveries and see where it bottoms out. Why bet now? The insiders certainly not betting big with their $10k purchases. Better to be safe and wait for the next report.

The other problem MFB has (and that 2CC didn’t) is the big pile of debt crushing it. Can’t see a dividend anytime soon. Hard to see a phoenix moment here

Agree Rawz

Term / Non Current debt up $1m to $12.4 m in 6 months to 30/9 2023 ..

Shall we assume that borrowings would have been $7.25m less, but for the Dec 2022 interim 3.0 cps dividend to make this time last year a joyous celebration ahead of Divie obliteration ? ;)

The Current Assets / Current Liabilities position looks precarious with Current Liabilities clocking in at 5.06 x current Assets, a slight improvement from 5.4 in Mar 2023

Wonder how fast that $12 mil in Current - Trade & Other payables is being cleared to be replaced by the next lot thrown on the ledger ?

The slightest head wind ahead may not be all that very fruitful with the mastheads carrying north of $85 m in intangibles, if the ship starts taking on water ;)

[SailorRob]

Yes it’s on the watchlist. Just need to get through this slide in deliveries and see where it bottoms out. Why bet now? The insiders certainly not betting big with their $10k purchases. Better to be safe and wait for the next report.

The other problem MFB has (and that 2CC didn’t) is the big pile of debt crushing it. Can’t see a dividend anytime soon. Hard to see a phoenix moment here

And what will the share price be when the road ahead is visibly clear to all comers?

You are essentially saying let's wait for the rebound and get in early on the rise.

Easier said than done.

[Dlownz]

And what will the share price be when the road ahead is visibly clear to all comers?

You are essentially saying let's wait for the rebound and get in early on the rise.

Easier said than done.
I still think we have a downturn coming as its starting to hit certain sectors. People coming off fixed rates still to hit home. More spending cuts. Luxery items ie food bag people will cut just like streaming (sky tv that's you).
I'm cutting most streaming services next year. Back to downloading again it was nice when Netflix was it. Too many now

[nztx]

I still think we have a downturn coming as its starting to hit certain sectors. People coming off fixed rates still to hit home. More spending cuts. Luxery items ie food bag people will cut just like streaming (sky tv that's you).
I'm cutting most streaming services next year. Back to downloading again it was nice when Netflix was it. Too many now


I think you're right there..

[Rawz]

And what will the share price be when the road ahead is visibly clear to all comers?

You are essentially saying let's wait for the rebound and get in early on the rise.

Easier said than done.

Yes well when you are playing ‘catch the falling knife’ game it’s up to each player to choose when to put their hand out..

I think MFB will report lower deliveries again at the next update. Could be wrong, often am

[Master98]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MFB/423658/409740.pdf
insiders bought the 7m shares.

[winner69]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MFB/423658/409740.pdf
insiders bought the 7m shares.

First glance I thought Apple had bought and said WOW

[RRR]

My only concern was insiders not buying significant amount of shares...
Cecilia has doubled her stake to >5% - that is huge!
I now have 700K shares:eek2:

[Rawz]

It’s a big show of confidence

[Sideshow Bob]

Habour has obviously been feeding the market.

What happens when they run out??

[Rawz]

Habour has obviously been feeding the market.

What happens when they run out??

SP does the zoomies to 20cent +

[Sideshow Bob]

SP does the zoomies to 20cent +

Normally it is my dog that does zoomies.....:mellow:

[Rawz]

Normally it is my dog that does zoomies.....:mellow:

MFB is a dog lol

[winner69]

My only concern was insiders not buying significant amount of shares...
Cecilia has doubled her stake to >5% - that is huge!
I now have 700K shares:eek2:

What about the zillions she sold into the IPO

Came back to save the company …..maybe she will

[winner69]

Normally it is my dog that does zoomies.....:mellow:

Speedy Az does cool spinnies ……clockwise then anticlockwise then clockwise and so on ….and then after a few minutes time for a sleep

[Lego_Man]

What about the zillions she sold into the IPO

Came back to save the company …..maybe she will

Sell high...buy low. Clearly a good investor!

[winner69]

MFB seems to be on punters buy list today

[silverblizzard888]

Looks like Cecilia got herself a bargain, must have been watching Harbours disclosure statements thinking what on earth are they doing constantly selling at any price. Almost reminds me of Eugene Williams at 2CC, sold his shares for just over a third of what it is at now to the co-founder. Gotta admit history has a habit of repeating itself or at least its doing quite a good job in rhyming. Without having Harbour selling down so much the buying momentum is actually on the upside now.

[Master98]

Looks like Cecilia got herself a bargain, must have been watching Harbours disclosure statements thinking what on earth are they doing constantly selling at any price. Almost reminds me of Eugene Williams at 2CC, sold his shares for just over a third of what it is at now to the co-founder. Gotta admit history has a habit of repeating itself or at least its doing quite a good job in rhyming. Without having Harbour selling down so much the buying momentum is actually on the upside now.
wondering if Cecilia will buy back my food bag at one tenth of price she sold to ipo, bring MFB to private.

[silverblizzard888]

wondering if Cecilia will buy back my food bag at one tenth of price she sold to ipo, bring MFB to private.

Doesn't seem to be any intentions on doing so, but wouldn't blame her if she was tempted to. With inflation starting to cooling down the profits will start to rise again.

[winner69]

wondering if Cecilia will buy back my food bag at one tenth of price she sold to ipo, bring MFB to private.

Robinsons buy MFB …..then merge it with her other venture Tend Health ……and down the track sell that Waterman who can do another IPO

I’m sure her mates Marko, Theresa and Pip can help her out

So Cecelia and the Waterman guys now own over 20%

What can go wrong

[RRR]

Hardly any sellers!

Harbour asset management decimated the share price single handedly...advantage for us retail investors in this scenario...

[Perky]

What can go wrong[/QUOTE]

There is a massive outbreak of listeria in MFB deliveries and people stop ordering. Tend Health suffers a severe cyber attack and can’t deal with the cases online and people get fed up and go back to normal gp

[bottomfeeder]

What can go wrong

There is a massive outbreak of listeria in MFB deliveries and people stop ordering. Tend Health suffers a severe cyber attack and can’t deal with the cases online and people get fed up and go back to normal gp[/QUOTE]

Matters relating to 2016, being repeated. If you worry about everything that happened before happening again you will be lying in a foetal position financially.

[Master98]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MFB/423722/409824.pdf
harbour ceasing to have substantial holding.

[Rawz]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MFB/423722/409824.pdf
harbour ceasing to have substantial holding.

wait.. so who sold the Apple trust the other 4.3m shares?

[winner69]

wait.. so who sold the Apple trust the other 4.3m shares?

Could still have Harbour ……sales made after they ceased to be SSH (about lunch time or something) so don’t need to mention

But it could have been somebody else ..who knows

[Rawz]

Could still have Harbour ……sales made after they ceased to be SSH (about lunch time or something) so don’t need to mention

But it could have been somebody else ..who knows

So Apl Trust buys 7m shares on Friday. And today Harbour say they sold 2.4m shares and ceased to have a substantial holding on Friday. But its possible they sell 2.4m on friday. Then more again on friday but they dont need to report that in todays update?

[RRR]

APL was holding 2.5% odd prior to this transaction on Friday = very clearly mentioned in the document released this AM

[winner69]

So Apl Trust buys 7m shares on Friday. And today Harbour say they sold 2.4m shares and ceased to have a substantial holding on Friday. But its possible they sell 2.4m on friday. Then more again on friday but they dont need to report that in todays update?

Generally you only need to record the transaction that takes you under 5% …..then no need to disclose anything else until you go over 5% again.

So what you say is possible ….but not saying it is …but they bought all at same price so if more than one party selling the broker has got them together.

[winner69]

APL was holding 2.5% odd prior to this transaction on Friday = very clearly mentioned in the document released this AM

SSH also acted as an Officers Disclosure notice as well

[winner69]

SP does the zoomies to 20cent +

Thought you were joking mate …….might even get there this week at this rate

MFB …the new 2CC

[bulltrap]

off market trade 7m shares @12.5 cents.
hopefully dumping finished, then sp starting recovery.

As noted there, this trade was reported to us (the market) as a single off-market trade. But that doesn't tally with the two SSH notices today, which refer to:



purchase of 7M on-market at 12.5 cps (not clearly stated if a single trade)
sale of 2,647,069 on-market at 12.5 cps in aggregate sales (notices says 'sales', maybe imply more than one trade)


Unless there's some legal loophole, I don't think Jarden+Harbour are at liberty to report their holdings after part of a single trade. If they were the counterparty (and it couldn't have been anyone else), they need to account for the full 7M.

I'd also find it misleading if the SSH notices report a date (no time), but not the holdings as at the end of that business day, as is customary in all financial reporting. It mightn't be against the rules for SSH notices, but it ought to be.

Is the market being fed numbers out of someone's ass here?

[silverblizzard888]

The timing and the amount would suggest that its all Harbours stock that was sold to APL. Why the SSH is showing less could possibly be a technicality since they have a number of different funds and the timing of the paperwork. Either way if the non-stop selling on the market stops then its a good thing.

[Rawz]

The timing and the amount would suggest that its all Harbours stock that was sold to APL. Why the SSH is showing less could possibly be a technicality since they have a number of different funds and the timing of the paperwork. Either way if the non-stop selling on the market stops then its a good thing.

I think you are right and Harbour is done. I agree with bulltraps post above. Its all very confusing feels sneaky. Maybe technically correct but come on looks like a snake has filed the ssh

[SailorRob]

Yes it’s on the watchlist. Just need to get through this slide in deliveries and see where it bottoms out. Why bet now? The insiders certainly not betting big with their $10k purchases. Better to be safe and wait for the next report.

The other problem MFB has (and that 2CC didn’t) is the big pile of debt crushing it. Can’t see a dividend anytime soon. Hard to see a phoenix moment here

Looks like you nailed it!

[Rawz]

Looks like you nailed it!

Lol... classic. Fundamentally nothing has changed with the recent SSH notices.

So lets see what happens when the next set of numbers are reported. Im happy to be wrong but still think deliveries will be down on pcp..

You own MFB? I remember you posting about it being cheap when the SP was in the 20cent range. Did you double down?

[SailorRob]

Lol... classic. Fundamentally nothing has changed with the recent SSH notices.

So lets see what happens when the next set of numbers are reported. Im happy to be wrong but still think deliveries will be down on pcp..

You own MFB? I remember you posting about it being cheap when the SP was in the 20cent range. Did you double down?

Don't own never have.

It's not that you're wrong about anything you've said, it's that you're wrong that you'll be able to trade the upside once the figures and performance change.

[Toddy]

What are they serving in the bags now days.


Dead cat bounce.

[Rawz]

Don't own never have.

It's not that you're wrong about anything you've said, it's that you're wrong that you'll be able to trade the upside once the figures and performance change.

Yes the chances have dropped dramatically now that harbour are out. The only chance was if they kept selling down into the next reporting date. Maybe small chance still as Jarden can take up the baton and sell out of their 5.5m shares.

I saw major holders in 2CC and HCL.asx sell down into positive reporting. was hoping to see it a 3rd time this year.

[winner69]

Share price up strongly today …..and closed at days high …that’s a good sign

[SailorRob]

Share price up strongly today …..and closed at days high …that’s a good sign

A good sign of what?

[troyvdh]

Im sorry why this obsession with this company.
It delivers food to people.
I just dont get it,
Why not just go shopping.
Like humans have been gathering food for 1000s of years.

[SailorRob]

Im sorry why this obsession with this company.
It delivers food to people.
I just dont get it,
Why not just go shopping.
Like humans have gathering food for 1000s of years.


Yes more to the point, what's the competitive advantage?

Anyone can deliver food, doesn't take much capital to set up.

[FTG]

Waterman are the majority owners of Farro. Some sort of play on the cards with Farro/MFB? ;)

[nztx]

Waterman are the majority owners of Farro. Some sort of play on the cards with Farro/MFB? ;)


Are they lining up another Killing or just a healthy appetite for All things Tucker ? ;)

or watching to see if MFB start looking like slumping on the ropes for Part II rinse & repeat ? ;)


If the Bacon starts getting laid out to dry & looking a bit distressed, then how many interested vultures
are likely to come rocking in that already know the inner nuts, bolts, bags & pans in the kitchen ? ;)

[nztx]

Robinsons buy MFB …..then merge it with her other venture Tend Health ……and down the track sell that Waterman who can do another IPO

I’m sure her mates Marko, Theresa and Pip can help her out

So Cecelia and the Waterman guys now own over 20%

What can go wrong



Stop it .. you starting to make me feel interested in having a play in the kitchen :)

[Toddy]

Waterman are the majority owners of Farro. Some sort of play on the cards with Farro/MFB? ;)

My Farro Bag.
Sounds expensive to me.

[nztx]

+35% thrown into the bag in a week for some lucky boys & girls .. who cares that there's no bacon being put out to be divided up :)

[Lego_Man]

Another big crossing this morning...

[Rawz]

thats got to be Jarden done and dusted now as well.

SP be over 20cents soon

[nztx]

But Ooops .. SP sliding backwards now currently 14.4c (down 4%)

ARe the Tip Sheets being revised somewhere ?

Or some of the Advisers positioning themselves to put a spoke in a new deal for a new MFB home ? ;)

[nztx]

That cat not bounce very well after bigger cat unload it's trove ;)

Have all the boys & girls lost interest again ? :)

Or will Father Christmas bring them all another tidy pile of MFB to stash where earlier ones put away ? ;)

[troyvdh]

woof woof.

[silverblizzard888]

Stock price has moved up 30% in the space of a week on no fundamental changes, so you would expect some profit taking to take place and for the share price to consolidate around the 14-15 cent level where sellers are happy to take profit and buyers find it a reasonable price to enter.

[Master98]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MFB/423900/410017.pdf
Cecilia bought another about 2% company, must mean something.

[winner69]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MFB/423900/410017.pdf
Cecilia bought another about 2% company, must mean something.

Yep, must mean something

Go you beauty …My Food Bag

[silverblizzard888]

That should put the market on notice, potential takeover alert right there.

[Master98]

That should put the market on notice, potential takeover alert right there.
Seems like Cecilia want to bring her baby back or she see the light at end of the tunnel.

[silverblizzard888]

Seems like Cecilia want to bring her baby back or she see the light at end of the tunnel.

Either way she sees value at the current share price, which is a good sign.

[winner69]

Seems like Cecilia want to bring her baby back or she see the light at end of the tunnel.

Wonder if having a chat to Theresa and Pip about such things

[winner69]

I'm sure the Waterman guys would help out ad well if needed

[Balance]

Either way she sees value at the current share price, which is a good sign.

She sold 23.8m shares at $1.85 at the IPO = $44.03m

If she buys back the same number of shares (so far 19m shares), it will cost her less than 10% of her proceeds of the IPO.

Good on her!

[Rawz]

She sold 23.8m shares at $1.85 at the IPO = $44.03m

If she buys back the same number of shares (so far 19m shares), it will cost her less than 10% of her proceeds of the IPO.

Good on her!

Bet she was laughing all the way to the bank when making the transfers lol

[winner69]

She sold 23.8m shares at $1.85 at the IPO = $44.03m

If she buys back the same number of shares (so far 19m shares), it will cost her less than 10% of her proceeds of the IPO.

Good on her!

For that could by the company ...with a bit left over

Hmmmm

[sb9]

Dipped in my toes today, see if it’s worth the punt.

[winner69]

16 cents a while ago …..20 cents on cards

Go you little beauty MFB

[sb9]

Yeah 20c is highly likely to be breached in the short term, now that Cecilia is fully committed. Something’s gotta emerge in the new year.

[winner69]

Jeez, share price closed at 17 cents …wow

Short week next week but mums and dads might push it higher if they enjoyed their Xmas lunch …and see a broker put MFB in its Brokers Tips thing

Metro glass going well as well

Pretty cool top of leaderboard today …MFB, MPG, RAD and PEB ….what a team

[Grimy]

Could be my picks for next year's competition then.

[Toddy]

That reminds me, I had better get the dog some flea powder tomorrow.

[nztx]

That reminds me, I had better get the dog some flea powder tomorrow.

Hopefully not a large bag of it :)

[troyvdh]

Thankyou Toddy ...However I dont believe flea powder will help this dog.

[silverblizzard888]

Don't worry Cecilia is already doing a good job making it a pretty lovable pooch.

[nztx]

Shampoo & Long rinse needed as well ? ;)

[sb9]

What are the bets for closing price for last trading day pre Christmas.

I’m picking 18c+..

[winner69]

And still price going up …nearly 18 cents

No speeding ticket lol but ‘we remain in compliance of all market disclosure requirements’ would be reply anyway

[Rawz]

If they do $5.5m NPAT for FY24 its trading on a forward P/E of 6.5. Might now be fair SP but 20cent is a nice round number

[silverblizzard888]

Early close for the NZX today at 1pm, so thats a wrap we close at 17.9 cents, thats relatively good recovery from 11.5 cents just over a week ago. That should pay for all the Christmas presents.

[Toddy]

What's the price 40 cents. Whoops, sorry got mixed up with last Xmas. Time flys.

[nztx]

What's the price 40 cents. Whoops, sorry got mixed up with last Xmas. Time flys.



Looks like Bag started getting hole in it straight after Christmas :)

Was Christmas Dinner too much or cause problem ?

[stoploss]

Maybe a little less competition
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/301039912/plantbased-meal-service-the-kai-box-to-close

[Rawz]

Maybe a little less competition
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/301039912/plantbased-meal-service-the-kai-box-to-close

Probably could never get those economies of scale going cutting all us big spending meat heads out of their potential customer list

[carrom74]

Looks like Harbour is selling again - the last leftover shares and keep their register clean!

[percy]

Looks like Harbour is selling again - the last leftover shares and keep their register clean!

"We will remember them."

[carrom74]

"We will remember them."

And the trainwreck!

[nztx]

How long until the Bag gets upended out onto the bench for another counting session ? :)

[Lego_Man]

Price now back to Cecilia's buy zone.

[Rawz]

Rawz family signed back onto MFB. Not sure why, its a Mrs Rawz decision. Anyways, im enjoying the change.

Wonder what the financials look like

[Master98]

Price now back to Cecilia's buy zone.
she can only buy small parcel each time now, unless she want to launch a takeover offer.

[carrom74]

Hello fresh shares rose 11% last Friday on good Q3 revenues.

Surprisingly not one update from MFB ..this year. So we take it as “no news is good news” and expect a $5m npat with a 2.5c divvy??

https://ir.hellofreshgroup.com/websites/hellofresh/English/3900/news-detail.html?newsID=2724835

[nztx]

Hello fresh shares rose 11% last Friday on good Q3 revenues.

Surprisingly not one update from MFB ..this year. So we take it as “no news is good news” and expect a $5m npat with a 2.5c divvy??

https://ir.hellofreshgroup.com/websites/hellofresh/English/3900/news-detail.html?newsID=2724835

might be wishful thinking expecting a multi-pennied genie to arise out of a small bag after earlier challenging releases and the kitchen might not be so generous to allow 2 1/2 fractions out on the current unloved SP levels :)

Anyone seen the Bag being thrown around on the squawk box recently ? ;)

[Lego_Man]

Hello fresh shares rose 11% last Friday on good Q3 revenues.

Surprisingly not one update from MFB ..this year. So we take it as “no news is good news” and expect a $5m npat with a 2.5c divvy??

https://ir.hellofreshgroup.com/websites/hellofresh/English/3900/news-detail.html?newsID=2724835


MFB have been studious in updating the market under Mark Winter, which makes me think they must be bang on target. So I would say that you're correct, which makes the current share price all the more attractive.

[nztx]

MFB have been studious in updating the market under Mark Winter, which makes me think they must be bang on target. So I would say that you're correct, which makes the current share price all the more attractive.



No Feb 24 Trading Update last month, as there was in the previous year & a month earlier in Jan 2022

Coincidence or just to down CFO changes ?

Don't think we can't work out when spitting out the updates takes a break :)

[silverblizzard888]

Had expected an update by now, but probably waiting till the end of this month to finish up before finalizing the numbers. They have been pushing 40% discount deals for all their customers the past few weeks, so could also be trying to push their numbers as far as they can before updating the market.

[winner69]

50% off Gourmet Box offer in emailmtoday

[troyvdh]

woof woof gnarl

[Gerald]

Hello fresh shares rose 11% last Friday on good Q3 revenues.

Surprisingly not one update from MFB ..this year. So we take it as “no news is good news” and expect a $5m npat with a 2.5c divvy??

https://ir.hellofreshgroup.com/websites/hellofresh/English/3900/news-detail.html?newsID=2724835


Not quite, look at the chart. They pre announced earnings a few days prior and the stock dropped ~45%, still down ~35%.

Interesting to read the annual report if you have the time: https://ir.hellofreshgroup.com/download/companies/hellofresh/Annual%20Reports/DE000A161408-JA-2023-EQ-E-01.pdf


Quick comparison, both trade on a similar price to revenue (~0.17) BUT;

- Since 2019 MFB has compounded revenue at 3.08% vs 42% for HFG (with almost no share issuance). HFG revenue currently stable, MFB declining.

- MFB is more levered.

- MFB has almost no cash in the bank, vs €433m for HFG (1/3 market cap).

- MFB has tons of intangibles, no tangible book value, shoddy balance sheet. HFG balance sheet mostly cash + real estate (distribution centres).

- MFB product pricing less competitive for comparable product.

- MFB subscale. Disadvantaged in product sourcing vs HFG.

- MFB leases properties so higher fixed cost base.

- HFG more diversified geographically. Less risky.

- HFG has 2/3 of business in USA, most attractive global market. Less interest rate sensitive customers.

- HFG founder led, MFB run by shaky kenwood mixer of random and unalligned short lived management.

---------------

Anyway tons more reasons, but not sure why you would own MFB here over HFG. Free option value of future growth and worldwide domination vs poor MFB holding on for dear life.

[carrom74]

Had expected an update by now, but probably waiting till the end of this month to finish up before finalizing the numbers. They have been pushing 40% discount deals for all their customers the past few weeks, so could also be trying to push their numbers as far as they can before updating the market.

Guess they could afford discounting as food inflation in relative terms has come down.Hope their $5m investment on picking technology is working for them - cost wise.

I am quite happy to see no updates - at least they seem trying.

2cent dividend should be in the offing if nothing else comes up.

[Habits]

Not quite, look at the chart. They pre announced earnings a few days prior and the stock dropped ~45%, still down ~35%.

Interesting to read the annual report if you have the time: https://ir.hellofreshgroup.com/download/companies/hellofresh/Annual%20Reports/DE000A161408-JA-2023-EQ-E-01.pdf


Quick comparison, both trade on a similar price to revenue (~0.17) BUT;

- Since 2019 MFB has compounded revenue at 3.08% vs 42% for HFG (with almost no share issuance). HFG revenue currently stable, MFB declining.

- MFB is more levered.

- MFB has almost no cash in the bank, vs €433m for HFG (1/3 market cap).

- MFB has tons of intangibles, no tangible book value, shoddy balance sheet. HFG balance sheet mostly cash + real estate (distribution centres).

- MFB product pricing less competitive for comparable product.

- MFB subscale. Disadvantaged in product sourcing vs HFG.

- MFB leases properties so higher fixed cost base.

- HFG more diversified geographically. Less risky.

- HFG has 2/3 of business in USA, most attractive global market. Less interest rate sensitive customers.

- HFG founder led, MFB run by shaky kenwood mixer of random and unalligned short lived management.

---------------

Anyway tons more reasons, but not sure why you would own MFB here over HFG. Free option value of future growth and worldwide domination vs poor MFB holding on for dear life.

MFB promoters talked up the hype and sold an overvalued investment with no break up value

Now we're subjected to smiley face founders popping up to instruct

[ralph]

Guess they could afford discounting as food inflation in relative terms has come down.Hope their $5m investment on picking technology is working for them - cost wise.

I am quite happy to see no updates - at least they seem trying.

2cent dividend should be in the offing if nothing else comes up.
The dividend will hopefully be suspended to use that $ for upscaling ,buyback etc .
I think the fact this is a kiwi company with a respected bit of food fluff is the big difference over Inferior foreign competitors more focused on foreign owners .

[bottomfeeder]

Watching Nadia on TV. Does she not have any empathy for the millions that have been lost by shareholders since the IPO. Is she just oblivious.

[X-men]

She doesn't lose any money...she cashed in her chips...get paid while working with MFB...the rest of her holdings are freebies....thank you shareholders!!!

[silverblizzard888]

Watching Nadia on TV. Does she not have any empathy for the millions that have been lost by shareholders since the IPO. Is she just oblivious.

Nadia wasn't responsible for the financial part of the business, her main role was managing the food. The original holders had also sold 70% of their ownership to Watermans back in 2016 so it was no longer within their control what Watermans wanted to do, it wasn't until 2021 that MFB came onto the markets. She continues to have to have a small shareholding and works for the company, but the IPO debacle was hardly her doing. Should she quit because she feels bad or fight to get the company performing again?

[Sideshow Bob]

Nadia wasn't responsible for the financial part of the business, her main role was managing the food. The original holders had also sold 70% of their ownership to Watermans back in 2016 so it was no longer within their control what Watermans wanted to do, it wasn't until 2021 that MFB came onto the markets. She continues to have to have a small shareholding and works for the company, but the IPO debacle was hardly her doing. Should she quit because she feels bad or fight to get the company performing again?

Probably contracted to be the 'face' of MFB.

Also seems like the type of person that wouldn't want to see the company she co-founded go down the drain - even if only a smaller shareholder these days.

[Balance]

Nadia wasn't responsible for the financial part of the business, her main role was managing the food. The original holders had also sold 70% of their ownership to Watermans back in 2016 so it was no longer within their control what Watermans wanted to do, it wasn't until 2021 that MFB came onto the markets. She continues to have to have a small shareholding and works for the company, but the IPO debacle was hardly her doing. Should she quit because she feels bad or fight to get the company performing again?

Precisely, sb888.

Why is she being held to a different standard than say, the original shareholders,promoters and directors of Metro Glass, Intueri, Radius Care, Oceania, Sky TV, Feltex, Cannasouth etc?

Some of the Nadia critics are starting to sound like Simon Whimp of DGL infame - sp down 63% in 1 year.

[Sideshow Bob]

She's never been a director of MFB Group Ltd, and hasn't been a director of MFB Ltd (owned by MFB Group) since late 2016......

[Balance]

She's never been a director of MFB Group Ltd, and hasn't been a director of MFB Ltd (owned by MFB Group) since late 2016......

If anyone is to be blamed for the massive losses of the 'investors' who bought into the IPO, they are :

1. The investors*, specially the 3 funds being Milford, Harbour & Devon with their highly paid managers, for buying into the IPO - there were plenty of warnings out there to not participate in the IPO (Eg. Gaynor wrote a negative article).

2. The promoters (especially the brokers being Forbar & Jardens) who aggressively pushed the IPO to their retail clients.

3. The directors who as we all know were attempting to do an initial 'better than forecast' maiden result but were caught out when the CEO spilled the beans before listing.

* excluding the retail clients who had discretionary accounts with the brokers and were stuffed with the stock without their knowledge.

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/markets/milford-harbour-and-sharesies-devour-my-food-bag-stock

[Lego_Man]

If anyone is to be blamed for the massive losses of the 'investors' who bought into the IPO, they are :

1. The investors*, specially the 3 funds being Milford, Harbour & Devon with their highly paid managers, for buying into the IPO - there were plenty of warnings out there to not participate in the IPO (Eg. Gaynor wrote a negative article).

2. The promoters (especially the brokers being Forbar & Jardens) who aggressively pushed the IPO to their retail clients.

3. The directors who as we all know were attempting to do an initial 'better than forecast' maiden result but were caught out when the CEO spilled the beans before listing.

* excluding the retail clients who had discretionary accounts with the brokers and were stuffed with the stock without their knowledge.

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/markets/milford-harbour-and-sharesies-devour-my-food-bag-stock

Absolutely. Bagging Nadia Lim personally for the share price has more than a whiff of Whimp misogyny.

[kiora]

Hmmm,Habour,that's definately a warning sign for me

[ralph]

Absolutely. Bagging Nadia Lim personally for the share price has more than a whiff of Whimp misogyny.
Absolutely just any chance to down ramp pick on the fluff, a easy target , she is actually diamond .

[Lego_Man]

Mulling over whether at 13c it's worth a tickle ahead of results next month.

[winner69]

Mulling over whether at 13c it's worth a tickle ahead of results next month.

Metro Glass at 9.4 cents might be a more fun tickle

[Rawz]

Mulling over whether at 13c it's worth a tickle ahead of results next month.

What’s your thinking?

I’ve been meaning to go over the numbers to try guess if it’s worth a punt but never can seem to find the time.

[nztx]

That darn kitchen has been mysteriously quiet .. not even a whisper or leak through the insulated sound proofing .. could that be bad ?

Anyone seen any MFB marketing spiel lately ?

The past four months have only seen hellos, goodbyes & shuffling of the brass inside the Meal Bag empire, no whisper on whether there are any pots overflowing or being depleted ;)

I mean .. heck if things were worth raving about then the Head Baconiser would be the first to out with it in an announcement :)

But alas .. A big fat nothing being announced on trading etc

A curious stance on Continuous Silence :)


Is the CEO still alive & kicking or just been accidentally locked in one of freezers or pantries for the duration ? ;)

Hopefully it wasn't due to a new recipe or concoction that went went badly wrong ..

[troyvdh]

She I believed got 11 million.

woof.

Yes

[nztx]

She I believed got 11 million.


One of the foundation initial stakeholders pre-IPO - you must be referring to ? ;)

woof woof

I'm assembling a chain of Takeaway Bars to throw together to pull off the same scheme :)

[silverblizzard888]

I suspect a lot of changes happening within the company and not all outcomes being final to announce to the market. If things were business as usual we would have likely heard from them by now.

[carrom74]

I suspect a lot of changes happening within the company and not all outcomes being final to announce to the market. If things were business as usual we would have likely heard from them by now.

Re: changes happening---only two possibilities I can think of

1.Cecilia mopping it of by going private.
2.Hello fresh -doing what they did with Youfoodz -Takeover for $150m.

If they could muster $5.5m Npat for FY24 then the dividends are back.

[Rawz]

At half year the decline in deliveries looked to be halted but times are tougher again now for households so maybe it’s reversed back to the declining trend of the last few years? The fact that no guidance has been given by the company shows how much of a unknown it is right now.

If the decline IS halted it should survive with plenty of ebitda to pay the big debt pile ($14.1m).

Npat could be lower for the second half with a higher interest cost, depending on when the debt rolls over onto today’s rates.

FCF could be around $2.5-$3.5m for the FY all going well. They should use it to pay down debt rather than dividends. I don’t believe this business should have any debt anyway, it has no assets and unless it’s using fresh capital to generate new revenue streams then it’s only using the debt to pay dividends- which is of course what has happened in the past and the main reason it’s a risky investment right now.

Overall it’s still too risky for me and not cheap enough to bother to have a punt. Would rather buy 2CC, TWR or HGH. All just as cheap as MFB but have more going for it and less risk..

[Rawz]

Just looking at the financials again at half year and current assets vs current liabilities.. MFB have basically got their suppliers to fund the business. That’s not bad actually

[Sideshow Bob]

Just looking at the financials again at half year and current assets vs current liabilities.. MFB have basically got their suppliers to fund the business. That’s not bad actually

Just like Foodstuffs and Progressive......

[percy]

Just like Foodstuffs and Progressive......

I thought they only gave 7 days credit.?

[Sideshow Bob]

I thought they only gave 7 days credit.?

Our small business with Foodies is 20th of the following month.

[percy]

Our small business with Foodies is 20th of the following month.

That is not buying off either Foodstuffs or Progressive.

[Sideshow Bob]

That is not buying off either Foodstuffs or Progressive.

I meant Foodstuffs and Progressive payment terms to their suppliers - not them supplying MFB

[winner69]

I meant Foodstuffs and Progressive payment terms to their suppliers - not them supplying MFB

Só supply foodstuffs early in month you wait 6 to 7 weeks to get paid …..pretty cool eh

[percy]

I meant Foodstuffs and Progressive payment terms to their suppliers - not them supplying MFB

Yes they want 30 days,however their customers are on 7 days.
Well that was the arrangements when I was in business.

[Sideshow Bob]

Só supply foodstuffs early in month you wait 6 to 7 weeks to get paid …..pretty cool eh

Very small part of our business so not a major but if reliant on them, then could be more challenging.

I once got told that one of the New Worlds turned over the stock of their milk chiller 57x before they paid for the 1st bottle of milk.......

Not bad for cashflow.

[winner69]

Just looking at the financials again at half year and current assets vs current liabilities.. MFB have basically got their suppliers to fund the business. That’s not bad actually

You and some others seem to be getting keen on buying into MFB (again?)

Maybe biz has settled at a sustainable level

[Rawz]

You and some others seem to be getting keen on buying into MFB (again?)

Maybe biz has settled at a sustainable level

Thought I would have a look to see if it was worth a punt. I came to the conclusion that there will be no dividend and better bets elsewhere, like 2CC, TWR, HGH etc.