MFB - My Food Bag

[ValueNZ]

Whenever anyone ever says what they think intrinsic value is, the first and most obvious question (that is never asked nor perhaps understood) is 'at what discount rate' ?
I think a fair discount rate is the average inflation adjusted return of the sp500 which is 6.35%. What would you use as a discount rate? I hadn't done an proper intrinsic value calculation this morning hence the "educated guess".

edit: Just had a think about it and it seems that discount rate would be far too low since I think MFB is a fairly risky business

[SailorRob]

I think a fair discount rate is the average inflation adjusted return of the sp500 which is 6.35%. What would you use as a discount rate? I hadn't done an proper intrinsic value calculation this morning hence the "educated guess".

edit: Just had a think about it and it seems that discount rate would be far too low since I think MFB is a fairly risky business

Edit correct.

Discount rate is just whatever return you want from the investment.

My guess is Baa_Baa would have used at least 15%.

[Balance]

Congratulations on your IPO picks. If you disagree with those quotes which SailorRob posted, I'd be interested in hearing your counter argument.

What counter argument?

SailorRob made the assertion that there's no point bothering with IPOs while I highlighted why there's every reason to invest in good IPOs, and gave examples.

Ask him to give you examples and it better NOT be OCA which has delivered ZERO (0) capital growth in 6 years since it listed in April 2017!!!!!

[SailorRob]

I'd be interested in hearing what people think MFB's intrinsic value to be. I know Baa Baa thought $0.16 which its now at. If I were to have a educated guess, I think it is fairly valued in the 20-25 cents range.

I think there is a lot of upside potential here, but it certainly seems risky.


Not very good that this question didn't generate any robust discussion.

MFB's intrinsic value is simply the net cash inflows and outflows discounted at an appropriate rate that will occur over the lifetime of the company.

Way outside my wheelhouse but if you can form some kind of a educated outlook on revenues and margins then you will be able to come up with an estimate.

For margins, perhaps look overseas at more saturated markets and see what range the long term margins are of the top few competitors.

For revenues, inflation will provide some cushion, but how many competitors will come into the market, when and how successfully. What will the market as a whole foe this type of offering do - again look overseas and see what total market revenues are per population etc.. then consider population growth etc...

Not easy but if you form an absolute worst case scenario you might find that it still makes sense. Anything better will be gravy.

[Balance]

Meanwhile, Harbour just keep a selling :

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MFB/412697/396084.pdf

[SailorRob]

What counter argument?

SailorRob made the assertion that there's no point bothering with IPOs while I highlighted why there's every reason to invest in good IPOs, and gave examples.

Ask him to give you examples and it better NOT be OCA which has delivered ZERO (0) capital growth in 6 years since it listed in April 2017!!!!!


Sailor just said the chances are the odds are stacked against you.

Sailor said there are very few successful IPO investors and doubts Balance is one.

Good IPO's are good in hindsight.

We can all give examples of past IPO successes.

I will be interested in your published track record of picking future ones.

[SailorRob]

Meanwhile, Harbour just keep a selling :

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MFB/412697/396084.pdf


Having just looked up their performance, what they are or are not doing should have very little relevance to us, though doing the opposite of them may be rewarding.

I am not saying MFB is a buy here.

Until I see some Eurasian fluff I'm on the fence.

[ValueNZ]

What counter argument?

SailorRob made the assertion that there's no point bothering with IPOs while I highlighted why there's every reason to invest in good IPOs, and gave examples.

Ask him to give you examples and it better NOT be OCA which has delivered ZERO (0) capital growth in 6 years since it listed in April 2017!!!!!
You didn't address the main point made in the quotes directly, rather you just stated that you can successfully invest in IPO's consistently. That point being IPO's almost always come to market at a time where they are in the favour of the seller, which makes it much harder for you to get a good price compared to an auction market. I think the question becomes do you think you are able to get a better price with either one large informed seller, or thousands of lesser informed sellers.

If you disagree with the point being made within the quotes, as I said I'd like to hear your counter argument.

[Baa_Baa]

Edit correct.

Discount rate is just whatever return you want from the investment.

My guess is Baa_Baa would have used at least 15%.

Something like that, maybe a bit less considering the realistic probability of growth, which is not realistic or probable, in my opinion. A 15% discount rate hurdle would immediately write-off this company as an investment opportunity. Their growth is flat already.

The valuation model I used also takes into account the current market capitalisation, which as it falls, so does the enterprise value (what a buyer might be expected to pay for the whole company right now ... not 'intrinsic' value [NAV, NTA?], whatever that is). As the market continues to discount the SP/Market Cap, the enterprise value on the model I've used is now ~$0.13 per share.

This is why I don't really like fundamental analysis, it's too nebulous and littered with assumptions (trying to predict the future), except perhaps to try to discover whether this is a long term viable and sustainable business. I've never seen two FA's agree on each others analysis. So we're left to make some assumptions and my assumptions, based on my fundamental value analysis, and technical analysis, is that this is not investable in it's current state.

It's cheap for a reason, perhaps many reasons. That doesn't make it a good investment, or even worth much more consideration, imo.

[SailorRob]

Something like that, maybe a bit less considering the realistic probability of growth, which is not realistic or probable, in my opinion. A 15% discount rate hurdle would immediately write-off this company as an investment opportunity. Their growth is flat already.

The valuation model I used also takes into account the current market capitalisation, which as it falls, so does the enterprise value (what a buyer might be expected to pay for the whole company right now ... not 'intrinsic' value [NAV, NTA?], whatever that is). As the market continues to discount the SP/Market Cap, the enterprise value on the model I've used is now ~$0.13 per share.

This is why I don't really like fundamental analysis, it's too nebulous and littered with assumptions (trying to predict the future), except perhaps to try to discover whether this is a long term viable and sustainable business. I've never seen two FA's agree on each others analysis. So we're left to make some assumptions and my assumptions, based on my fundamental value analysis, and technical analysis, is that this is not investable in it's current state.

It's cheap for a reason, perhaps many reasons. That doesn't make it a good investment, or even worth much more consideration, imo.


Intrinsic value is all that there is. It has nothing to do with NTA.

It's just the net cash inflows and outflows discounted at an appropriate rate that will occur over the lifetime of the company.

Same for any financial asset.

[SailorRob]

Something like that, maybe a bit less considering the realistic probability of growth, which is not realistic or probable, in my opinion. A 15% discount rate hurdle would immediately write-off this company as an investment opportunity. Their growth is flat already.

The valuation model I used also takes into account the current market capitalisation, which as it falls, so does the enterprise value (what a buyer might be expected to pay for the whole company right now ... not 'intrinsic' value [NAV, NTA?], whatever that is). As the market continues to discount the SP/Market Cap, the enterprise value on the model I've used is now ~$0.13 per share.

This is why I don't really like fundamental analysis, it's too nebulous and littered with assumptions (trying to predict the future), except perhaps to try to discover whether this is a long term viable and sustainable business. I've never seen two FA's agree on each others analysis. So we're left to make some assumptions and my assumptions, based on my fundamental value analysis, and technical analysis, is that this is not investable in it's current state.

It's cheap for a reason, perhaps many reasons. That doesn't make it a good investment, or even worth much more consideration, imo.


I actually don't understand any of this post.

[silverblizzard888]

Meanwhile, Harbour just keep a selling :

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MFB/412697/396084.pdf

Harbour is also getting a haircut off Peb too, so they must be a desperate to cut losses.

[Baa_Baa]

I actually don't understand any of this post.

OK, maybe if I put it another way that might resonate with you. Would Warren buy into this company? If so why and if not why not? It's not obvious why you are even remotely interested in MFB.

[ValueNZ]

Baa Baa, why does your value estimate change dependent on market price changing? If your value estimate is always going to be lower than the market price obviously at no price you would be happy to purchase shares.

[Baa_Baa]

I actually don't understand any of this post.

I'm sure that you do understand it.

1. growth is already flat, no discount value other than 0% is useful or realistic. Anything else is optimistic.

2. enterprise value, or intrinsic if you like, will be close to market cap, which is what a buyer will be prepared to pay, if they offered to buy it, maybe with some premium to motivate a seller.

3. FA is full of assumptions, in my observations few FA's ever agree on their assumptions, so their FA value analysis always disagrees with each other.

4. MFB is 16 cents per share, it looks cheap, but is it really?

Does that help?

[Baa_Baa]

Baa Baa, why does your value estimate change dependent on market price changing? If your value estimate is always going to be lower than the market price obviously at no price you would be happy to purchase shares.

Enterprise value takes into account what the market (capitalisation) value is . No buyer of an asset will ignore what the market thinks it's worth, neither should a valuation of the company's worth, imo. Every company buyout is at a market cap + some premium to entice owners to sell into it. So it stands to reason, market cap should be a factor in valuing the enterprise.

So you're right, as long as the market discounts the value by devaluing the SP, the enterprise value will decrease as well.

It's not true that the enterprise value will always be lower than the market cap, if the market cap is increasing, so will the enterprise value, hence it's worth more or going to cost more for a buyer to take it over. But this isn't currently the situation with MFB, it keeps on going lower. Probably for a reason, is it really investable, or just a punt that it may be?

Fact is though MFB is growth flat and as I said, imo not investable. Too many risks and a market pariah. There's a lot of better places to put your money than a punt on MFB. But, if you like a punt, a gamble, a bet, well, maybe MFB is worth a shot, I wouldn't know and have no opinion on that except I don't gamble on losing shares.

[Rawz]

Enterprise value is black and white. It is what it is. Market cap + debt - cash.

Intrinsic value depends on the analyst and whatever their dreamed up future earnings are. EBO classic example of why I have given up using DCF models, look at gurus fisher funds piling into it this year… obviously they didn’t model EBO losing the CW contract. And I don’t blame them, who can’t predict such things

Nowadays I look at the PnL, balance sheet and cash flow statement. Then read the most recent report and look at the outlook statement and leave it at that. Otherwise you are updating your model a hundred times a year

[Rawz]

BaaBaa you can’t have a model where the answer is in the equation. That’s a paradox

[ValueNZ]

I think I must be missing something - Is there any reason why an investor would care about enterprise value?

[Rawz]

I think I must be missing something - Is there any reason why an investor would care about enterprise value?

Only to compare companies in the same industry that have different balance sheet make ups.

MHJ had nearly $100m cash on their balance sheet not long ago so you would want to use EV if comparing against another jewelry co that had say lots of debt on their balance sheet

[silverblizzard888]

I think I must be missing something - Is there any reason why an investor would care about enterprise value?

Imagine you own a house worth $1 million and have $500k in debt, assuming you could sell this house with the debt included, that house would be worth $500k, which is a drastically much lower value.
Now why would you want to know the house is worth $1 million dollars, when its really only worth $500k with its current debt if you were to sell it now.
Well it sets a benchmark of what it would be worth without the debt and also allows for better comparisons with other houses because each house could come with different debt levels, the best comparison would be comparing house values without the debt so you have a good idea of the houses value first, adding in the debt obscures the comparison.

[bull....]

Only to compare companies in the same industry

rawz most common sense answer i see among'st all the non - sensical waffle

[SailorRob]

I think I must be missing something - Is there any reason why an investor would care about enterprise value?


Yes there is. Enterprise value is extremely important.

Some good answers from Rawz and Silver.

Buffett always thinks in terms of pre tax earnings on unleveraged equity. Mostly what he looks at doesn't have a lot of leverage so he can just use pre tax earnings.

Enterprise value nets out the capital structure and this lays bear the true performance of the enterprise.

So we can have 2 businesses that are identical in every way apart from capital structure. So they sell the same products in the same volumes and make the same earnings.

Either you can buy for a million dollars. Each has 100k earnings, so each sells for a PE of 10.

One however has 100k equity and 900k debt. The other has no debt and therefore a million in equity.

So looking purely at the earnings and the price you pay for them, they are both at a PE of 10. But obviously you would far prefer the one with no debt if it was the same price as the other.

Looking at EV, we see that one has an EV of a million and the other has an EV of 1.9 million.

The ratio we use is called EV/EBIT and is probably the most commonly used comparative pricing ratio that there is. The reason we leave tax and interest out is that different capital structures will cause the tax and interest to swing around, we want to compare and normalise for this.

The critical point here is that we want to compare businesses not their financing structures.

So enterprise value is extremely important. It adds the value that the market places on the equity capital with the debt.

In the case above the EV/EBIT would be 10 or 19, vastly different. (real numbers will differ slightly as the 100k I gave was after tax and interest)

As noted by others, EV will also give credit for cash.

The beauty is that it really makes you think in terms of what it would truly cost for you to purchase the business, which is what we all should be thinking like.

If you are offered a house for 800k but in the garage there is a briefcase containing 300k cash then you net that out, you are only 500k...

If you are not thinking in EV terms then it would like be looking at houses and buying the mortgages as well. We don't think like that. We think in all equity terms.

[winner69]

Yes there is. Enterprise value is extremely important.

Some good answers from Rawz and Silver.

Buffett always thinks in terms of pre tax earnings on unleveraged equity. Mostly what he looks at doesn't have a lot of leverage so he can just use pre tax earnings.

Enterprise value nets out the capital structure and this lays bear the true performance of the enterprise.

So we can have 2 businesses that are identical in every way apart from capital structure. So they sell the same products in the same volumes and make the same earnings.

Either you can buy for a million dollars. Each has 100k earnings, so each sells for a PE of 10.

One however has 100k equity and 900k debt. The other has no debt and therefore a million in equity.

So looking purely at the earnings and the price you pay for them, they are both at a PE of 10. But obviously you would far prefer the one with no debt if it was the same price as the other.

Looking at EV, we see that one has an EV of a million and the other has an EV of 1.9 million.

The ratio we use is called EV/EBIT and is probably the most commonly used comparative pricing ratio that there is. The reason we leave tax and interest out is that different capital structures will cause the tax and interest to swing around, we want to compare and normalise for this.

The critical point here is that we want to compare businesses not their financing structures.

So enterprise value is extremely important. It adds the value that the market places on the equity capital with the debt.

In the case above the EV/EBIT would be 10 or 19, vastly different. (real numbers will differ slightly as the 100k I gave was after tax and interest)

As noted by others, EV will also give credit for cash.

The beauty is that it really makes you think in terms of what it would truly cost for you to purchase the business, which is what we all should be thinking like.

If you are offered a house for 800k but in the garage there is a briefcase containing 300k cash then you net that out, you are only 500k...

If you are not thinking in EV terms then it would like be looking at houses and buying the mortgages as well. We don't think like that. We think in all equity terms.

I think you’ll be confusing Value even more with that explanation

[Balance]

I think you’ll be confusing Value even more with that explanation

Poor ValueNZ - I can recommend a few good books with practical applications to the real world.

But why bother?

[Rawz]

Just cheat and use the dirty old P/E ratio. Works fine 90% of the time

[SailorRob]

OK, maybe if I put it another way that might resonate with you. Would Warren buy into this company? If so why and if not why not? It's not obvious why you are even remotely interested in MFB.


If the small size wasn't an issue then he would buy it if he could get it for less than the sum of cash inflows and outflows that will occur over the lifetime of the company, discounted to today at his required rate of return.

He would not care a bit what the stock price had done in the past or market sentiment or falling knife or any of that.

He would simply want to have an idea of future earnings and what he can buy them for today.

I was super perplexed about your comment that you don't really like fundamental analysis, as I thought that is all that there was?

But I am 10 times more perplexed about your estimate of the companies value is changing with the share price falling in the short term. The only thing that determines the value of the company is future earnings and discount rates, the market pricing is in no way there to instruct us on the value of the company.

I thought this was the entire point of what we do. Form different opinions to Mr Market.

As for two FA's never agreeing, they are not supposed to. Buffett and Munger will both come out with a different intrinsic value for Berkshire. As long as both make sense and give a reasonable return then it doesn't matter.

'No buyer of an asset will ignore what the market thinks it's worth, neither should a valuation of the company's worth, imo' This is exactly what Buffett has done his whole life. And how I've made every cent of my money...

The entire point of all of this is that we don't take instruction from Mr market. Mr market is Bull and Daytr.

I don't care one bit what the market thinks anything is worth.

The reason I'm slightly interested is that MFB doesn't require any growth to make sense at these prices. In fact you can cut growth in half and take a hatchet to margins and you'd still make a lot of money.

Remember we are thinking in terms of buying the whole business and or that the stock market closes down for years... we don't care about the share price in the short medium term. I don't get a quote on my Yachts every day, thank god.

[Fortunecookie]

I think RYM is a good example, when you compare pre and post cap raise. They shifted the dial from debt to equity.

[SailorRob]

Just cheat and use the dirty old P/E ratio. Works fine 90% of the time


As long as you normalise the earnings you use, don't just take most recent year for gospel and stay away from highly leveraged entities then this will work out ok.

[ValueNZ]

I think you’ll be confusing Value even more with that explanation
I understood the explanation fine thanks.


Poor ValueNZ - I can recommend a few good books with practical applications to the real world.

But why bother?
Happy to hear any books you recommend, my question was one that was genuine and I am happy to admit that I am still learning when it comes to the world of finance.

[blackcap]

The reason I'm slightly interested is that MFB doesn't require any growth to make sense at these prices. In fact you can cut growth in half and take a hatchet to margins and you'd still make a lot of money.

Remember we are thinking in terms of buying the whole business and or that the stock market closes down for years... we don't care about the share price in the short medium term. I don't get a quote on my Yachts every day, thank god.


What happens if the growth is flat (ie no growth) in what is already a saturated market, or if there is a decline in sales (in real terms) and margins are eroded by rising input costs. What does that do to your valuation?

My guess is that the market is pricing in the above scenario.

[Balance]

I understood the explanation fine thanks.


Happy to hear any books you recommend, my question was one that was genuine and I am happy to admit that I am still learning when it comes to the world of finance.

Try this book, ValueNZ :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Intelligent_Investor

[SailorRob]

What happens if the growth is flat (ie no growth) in what is already a saturated market, or if there is a decline in sales (in real terms) and margins are eroded by rising input costs. What does that do to your valuation?

My guess is that the market is pricing in the above scenario.

That and more should already be in a valuation.

Cut your revenue in half and then beat it with a stick while kicking margins in the guts.

No way to you use flat growth. You destroy it totally.

[SailorRob]

Try this book, ValueNZ :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Intelligent_Investor

Already has it.

[ValueNZ]

Try this book, ValueNZ :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Intelligent_Investor
That is probably my favourite book ever. Theres a section on IPO's which you may find interesting...

[Balance]

That is probably my favourite book ever. Theres a section on IPO's which you may find interesting...

I read and I apply as I see fit and appropriate.

For the umpteen time, I bother with IPOs because good money and even spectacular gains can be made from them. That's why I bother with them.

[SailorRob]

I read and I apply as I see fit and appropriate.

For the umpteen time, I bother with IPOs because good money and even spectacular gains can be made from them. That's why I bother with them.

You know better than to take Ben Grahams advice.

Good money and spectacular gains can be made from anything.

Not the point.

[winner69]

Hello Fresh in strife ..maybe breaching FaircTrading Act

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/491652/hellofresh-under-commerce-commission-investigation-over-potential-fair-trading-act-breaches

But then today My Food Bag sends me an email saying I can save $130 on Gourmet Dinners.

Read the fine print and it’s $130 over 2 weeks but the offer is actually 45% off first order than 15% off after that and one needs to believe that totals $130 I suppose

Marketing gone mad

[Baa_Baa]

I was super perplexed about your comment that you don't really like fundamental analysis, as I thought that is all that there was?

I didn't express that very well, what I meant was I don't like discussing FA, especially mine .. LOL.

Here's something people might find useful, from Aswath Damodaran (https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/home.htm) who publishes all of his financial analysis spreadsheets free for download. https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/spreadsh.htm

[nztx]

Hello Fresh in strife ..maybe breaching FaircTrading Act

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/491652/hellofresh-under-commerce-commission-investigation-over-potential-fair-trading-act-breaches

But then today My Food Bag sends me an email saying I can save $130 on Gourmet Dinners.

Read the fine print and it’s $130 over 2 weeks but the offer is actually 45% off first order than 15% off after that and one needs to believe that totals $130 I suppose

Marketing gone mad


Are they getting a tad desperate .. or has someone found a hidden storeroom full of Kumaras ? ;)

[winner69]

I didn't express that very well, what I meant was I don't like discussing FA, especially mine .. LOL.

Here's something people might find useful, from Aswath Damodaran (https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/home.htm) who publishes all of his financial analysis spreadsheets free for download. https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/spreadsh.htm

He’s good that Professor Damodaran

Well worth looking into his stuff

[SailorRob]

He’s good that Professor Damodaran

Well worth looking into his stuff

He's got some good material but it was awesome watching Charlie call him insane and Warren even more so tearing him a new one.

Academics...

Forrest and Trees.

[ValueNZ]

I didn't express that very well, what I meant was I don't like discussing FA, especially mine .. LOL.

Here's something people might find useful, from Aswath Damodaran (https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/home.htm) who publishes all of his financial analysis spreadsheets free for download. https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/spreadsh.htm
He also makes great lectures online which he posts for free on youtube. I personally have enjoyed learning from some of them.

[Baa_Baa]

He's got some good material but it was awesome watching Charlie call him insane and Warren even more so tearing him a new one.

Academics...

Forrest and Trees.

It would be really interesting if Warren and Charlie captured their combined wisdom into the infallible ultimate company valuation model and published that free to the whole world.

It would be an awesome gesture of generosity and a statement of enduring legacy sharing that with everyone.

No one doubts these guys as the best of the best investors despite their occasional mistakes (happens to everyone), but sadly both of them will pass on fairly soon and their deep wisdom will be lost except for their prodigies who have no profile and are unlikely to share any wisdom with anyone.

Picking apart their wise advice and creating an investment model from it is extremely difficult, as you know. What a legacy they would leave if they shared that with the world, in a tool anyone could use!

It would be better than giving away all their humongous wealth to the undeserving masses. Teach a man to fish AND give them the tools and education, what an enduring and inspiring legacy that would be, a place amongst the gods.

[SailorRob]

It would be really interesting if Warren and Charlie captured their combined wisdom into the infallible ultimate company valuation model and published that free to the whole world.

It would be an awesome gesture of generosity and a statement of enduring legacy sharing that with everyone.

No one doubts these guys as the best of the best investors despite their occasional mistakes (happens to everyone), but sadly both of them will pass on fairly soon and their deep wisdom will be lost except for their prodigies who have no profile and are unlikely to share any wisdom with anyone.

Picking apart their wise advice and creating an investment model from it is extremely difficult, as you know. What a legacy they would leave if they shared that with the world, in a tool anyone could use!

It would be better than giving away all their humongous wealth to the undeserving masses. Teach a man to fish AND give them the tools and education, what an enduring and inspiring legacy that would be, a place amongst the gods.


You have to be kidding!

There is no infallible ultimate company valuation model and he has never used one.

Nobody else in the field combined in all of recorded history has provided more detail into how they do it though.

He has in fact made this teaching his life's work, more so than Berkshire!

I think it's easy to make an investment model from their advice, though it takes time. It's exactly what I've done.

The first step is reading all his letters from 1957 to 2022. Over 5000 pages.

Second step is reading again.

Third step is reading again and making notes.

Fourth is listening to all meetings form 1994.

Fifth is listen again.

6th is reading the Snowball

7ht Making of an American Capitalist.

Then onto books like the complete history of Berkshire etc..

Then media appearances and all his articles he wrote

Then Poor Charlies Almanak

Then every book either has ever recommended.

Also all the lectures.

The repeat all the above and keep repeating all your life.

[SailorRob]

I found a list of Balances IPO's



14634

[ValueNZ]

I found a list of Balances IPO's



14634
Good money and even spectacular gains can be made from them, you just have to choose the right ones. All a question of being smart to pick the right ones.

Right Balance?

edit: In all fairness it would be interesting to see if New Zealand's IPOs over the years have followed the same trend (I suspect it will be the case). Perhaps I'll compare the performance of a bunch of NZ IPOs over the years to the nzx50, and post it later tonight or tomorrow.

[Baa_Baa]

You have to be kidding!

There is no infallible ultimate company valuation model and he has never used one.

Nobody else in the field combined in all of recorded history has provided more detail into how they do it though.

He has in fact made this teaching his life's work, more so than Berkshire!

I think it's easy to make an investment model from their advice, though it takes time. It's exactly what I've done.

The first step is reading all his letters from 1957 to 2022. Over 5000 pages.

Second step is reading again.

Third step is reading again and making notes.

Fourth is listening to all meetings form 1994.

Fifth is listen again.

6th is reading the Snowball

7ht Making of an American Capitalist.

Then onto books like the complete history of Berkshire etc..

Then media appearances and all his articles he wrote

Then Poor Charlies Almanak

Then every book either has ever recommended.

Also all the lectures.

The repeat all the above and keep repeating all your life.

That's encouraging, despite Charlie and Warren not having created (or maybe they have) but not sharing their investment model, you have it! Created from your analysis of their wisdom!

Brilliant, would you share that with us? We're just plebs in reality, but you have the investment model founded in the teachings of the Oracles.

Love to see your work, SailorRob.

Just joshing, seriously, this is light hearted humour, but if I had that investment model based on the Oracles teachings, that i'd built from their disclosures over many years, I'd probably not share it either.

[ValueNZ]

That's encouraging, despite Charlie and Warren not having created (or maybe they have) but not sharing their investment model, you have it! Created from your analysis of their wisdom!

Brilliant, would you share that with us? We're just plebs in reality, but you have the investment model founded in the teachings of the Oracles.

Love to see your work, SailorRob.

Just joshing, seriously, this is light hearted humour, but if I had that investment model based on the Oracles teachings, that i'd built from their disclosures over many years, I'd probably not share it either.
Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger have both relentlessly discussed how they choose their investments. Is this what you mean by investment model?

[Baa_Baa]

I found a list of Balances IPO's



14634

I doubt that he partakes in any of those IPO's, he's probably talking about NZX IPO's.

In any event, MFB has to be one of the worst IPO investments in recent memory, poor punters (mums and dads, customers and staff) all got sucked into putting up their hard earned (many who have no experience, at all, in investment in public stocks) and got screwed buy the promoter, shafted up the .... big time screwed.

Bloody despicable. NSX should be ashamed.

[SailorRob]

Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger have both relentlessly discussed how they choose their investments. Is this what you mean by investment model?


Thanks, this is what I meant...

[SailorRob]

That's encouraging, despite Charlie and Warren not having created (or maybe they have) but not sharing their investment model, you have it! Created from your analysis of their wisdom!

Brilliant, would you share that with us? We're just plebs in reality, but you have the investment model founded in the teachings of the Oracles.

Love to see your work, SailorRob.

Just joshing, seriously, this is light hearted humour, but if I had that investment model based on the Oracles teachings, that i'd built from their disclosures over many years, I'd probably not share it either.


Jokes aside, this is what I've done but I don't have any model just like they don't.

Just paid attention to their 'relentless' discussion of their approach!

[SailorRob]

He laid it out pretty simple.

Rule number 1. Don't lose money.

Rule number 2. Don't forget rule number 1!

[SailorRob]

Also worth noting there are two Buffetts.

Pre Munger in the partnership days. Road kill deep value cigar butts.

Post munger cheap quality.

And then there is the watch what he does not what he says...

Favorite holding time is forever... Up to 2006 60% of stocks were held less than 12 Months.

[Baa_Baa]

Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger have both relentlessly discussed how they choose their investments. Is this what you mean by investment model?

Yes, that's what I mean by an investment model, but have they given us a thing that you can plug in the numbers of say the last decade of performance of a company and it spits out some enlightening advice like .. awesome, buy this now, or .. encouraging, maybe take a position, or maybe let's watch for a while, or .. yeah maybe not now, keep watching, or no way, this is toast, or even, you gotta be joking this is a dog.

[SailorRob]

Yes, that's what I mean by an investment model, but have they given us a thing that you can plug in the numbers of say the last decade of performance of a company and it spits out some enlightening advice like .. awesome, buy this now, or .. encouraging, maybe take a position, or maybe let's watch for a while, or .. yeah maybe not now, keep watching, or no way, this is toast, or even, you gotta be joking this is a dog.


Here you go, everything you need in 5 minutes. Let me know what you think.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZHN7FApHvHM

[SBQ]

Here you go, everything you need in 5 minutes. Let me know what you think.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZHN7FApHvHM

Keep in mind, Buffett & Munger often make mistakes. The purchase of Precision Cast Parts was a big loss (but who could have predicted Covid?). Munger took a major stake in Alibaba doubling down at $118/share range - only to sell for a massive loss when BABA traded in the $80 range.

The overall goal is to spread your risk. Not by ETF diversification but by holding a handful of quality companies. IMO, MFB is not one of them and certainly would not meet Buffett's interest.

[SailorRob]

Keep in mind, Buffett & Munger often make mistakes. The purchase of Precision Cast Parts was a big loss (but who could have predicted Covid?). Munger took a major stake in Alibaba doubling down at $118/share range - only to sell for a massive loss when BABA traded in the $80 range.

The overall goal is to spread your risk. Not by ETF diversification but by holding a handful of quality companies. IMO, MFB is not one of them and certainly would not meet Buffett's interest.

How was precision a big loss? Are you talking about the write down? Need to be pretty careful analysing the precision deal, let's talk in 5 years.

Buffett says just about everything he has done is a mistake including probably the biggest success of his career, buying out GEICO.

Need to fully understand the tax scenario with mungers sell down and he's only just bought it... Let's judge in 2040.

As great fisherman heading out and coming home empty handed hasn't in my view necessarily made a mistake.

Buffett ditching his entire OXY position, or airlines before they ripped looks like mistakes, but they weren't. They were prudent actions at the time.

[Snoopy]

The critical point here is that we want to compare businesses not their financing structures.

So enterprise value is extremely important. It adds the value that the market places on the equity capital with the debt.

In the case above the EV/EBIT would be 10 or 19, vastly different. (real numbers will differ slightly as the 100k I gave was after tax and interest)

As noted by others, EV will also give credit for cash.

The beauty is that it really makes you think in terms of what it would truly cost for you to purchase the business, which is what we all should be thinking like.

If you are offered a house for 800k but in the garage there is a briefcase containing 300k cash then you net that out, you are only 500k...

If you are not thinking in EV terms then it would like be looking at houses and buying the mortgages as well. We don't think like that. We think in all equity terms.


Good discussion going on here. Drifting a bit from the thread topic but I will tray and bring it back.

I agree with the idea of valuing a whole company. But I don't agree that 'enterprise value' is the way to do it for 'small investors'. I think the argument has gone off track with the 'buying a house' analogy. Buying a share in MFB is more akin to buying the wardrobe in an existing house. The overall mortgage on the house is still controlled by the house owner. You can come out of your wardrobe in the middle of the night, shake the house owner awake, and tell him you think he should pay down debt rather than have a house party every Saturday night. But he would just tell you to go back into your wardrobe and 'get stuffed'. As a wardrobe owner in a much larger entity, you have no effective say on how a house is run. Sure you can have your say at the annual householders meeting. But the house owner has no obligation to listen to you - none. Likewise as a small MFB shareholder, you cannot change the capital policy of the company. All you can do is buy into the company as it is and sit there. You buy your shares knowing the debt position that MFB has, which is from a very different position than if you eyeing up making an offer for the whole company. It is only in the latter case where you would be in a position to control the company debt - which is where the relevance of 'enterprise value' comes in..

The point I am coming to is that, as a 'small shareholder,' calculating the enterprise value of a company (an exercise where the net 'debt minus cash on hand ' is added onto the market value of the company), is not all that useful in making your 'buy' and 'sell' decisions. You shouldn't think like an 'overall owner of the company', using the 'enterprise value' valuation tool, because you are not.

SNOOPY

[SailorRob]

Good discussion going on here. Drifting a bit from the thread topic but I will tray and bring it back.

I agree with the idea of valuing a whole company. But I don't agree that 'enterprise value' is the way to do it for 'small investors'. I think the argument has gone off track with the 'buying a house' analogy. Buying a share in MFB is more akin to buying the wardrobe in an existing house. The overall mortgage on the house is still controlled by the house owner. You can come out of your wardrobe in the middle of the night, shake the house owner awake, and tell him you think he should pay down debt rather than have a house party every Saturday night. But he would just tell you to go back into your wardrobe and 'get stuffed'. As a wardrobe owner in a much larger entity, you have no effective say on how a house is run. Sure you can have your say at the annual householders meeting. But the house owner has no obligation to listen to you - none. Likewise as a small MFB shareholder, you cannot change the capital policy of the company. All you can do is buy into the company as it is and sit there. You buy your shares knowing the debt position that MFB has, which is from a very different position than if you eyeing up making an offer for the whole company. It is only in the latter case where you would be in a position to control the company debt - which is where the relevance of 'enterprise value' comes in..

The point I am coming to is that, as a 'small shareholder,' calculating the enterprise value of a company (an exercise where the net 'debt minus cash on hand ' is added onto the market value of the company), is not all that useful in making your 'buy' and 'sell' decisions. You shouldn't think like an 'overall owner of the company', using the 'enterprise value' valuation tool, because you are not.

SNOOPY

So because you're a minority shareholder that has no say it makes no difference if you buy a company loaded with debt, or all equity with tons of cash in the bank?

I get what you're saying but it makes very little sense.

[ValueNZ]

So because you're a minority shareholder that has no say it makes no difference if you buy a company loaded with debt, or all equity with tons of cash in the bank?

I get what you're saying but it makes very little sense.
In a DCF wouldn't you adjust your future cash flow calculations and/or discount rate to take into consideration the capital structure and assets of the company? That would address the issue of differences in capital structure between different companies, therefore no need to take into consideration the enterprise value when deciding whether to purchase shares in a company.

[SailorRob]

In a DCF wouldn't you adjust your future cash flow calculations and/or discount rate to take into consideration the capital structure and assets of the company? That would address the issue of differences in capital structure between different companies, therefore no need to take into consideration the enterprise value when deciding whether to purchase shares in a company.

But you're taking the enterprise value into consideration when you choose your discount rate or future earnings estimate, so by definition you're considering it when making your decision.

[Snoopy]

So because you're a minority shareholder that has no say it makes no difference if you buy a company loaded with debt, or all equity with tons of cash in the bank?


No, I am saying that you should very much consider the debt position of the company. But as a minority shareholder, you have to consider what the debt position of the company is 'here and now', as that is the only choice you have.

I would much rather own a share of a well run business with modest debt than a badly run business with no debt. Perhaps it might be even better if the well run business I was looking to buy a share of had less debt. But management controls the amount of debt, the financial structure of the business, not me. So the fact that *I* think the well run business would be even better off with less debt is of no relevance to how the company operates. I can't buy into a company assuming that if the financial structure of the company changed, then I would do better, because I can't control the financial structure.

Compare that to the alternative scenario where I make a bid for the whole company. In that instance I could decide to pay down the company debt once I acquired management control. In that situation 'enterprise value' would be very relevant.

SNOOPY

[ValueNZ]

But you're taking the enterprise value into consideration when you choose your discount rate or future earnings estimate, so by definition you're considering it when making your decision.
EV= Market cap + Debt - Cash
Do you take into consideration the market cap when you choose your discount rate or earnings estimate?

I would have thought the debt and cash part would change how you choose your discount rate or earnings estimate, but not market cap.

[Snoopy]

But you're taking the enterprise value into consideration when you choose your discount rate or future earnings estimate, so by definition you're considering it when making your decision.


Are you talking about the CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model) here where you work out a 'cost of equity' and 'cost of debt', the blend the two together in a way that takes into account to proportion of debt and equity to give an appropriate 'overall discount rate'? That is only one way to select a discount rate. It doesn't rule out using another method.

SNOOPY

[SailorRob]

EV= Market cap + Debt - Cash
Do you take into consideration the market cap when you choose your discount rate or earnings estimate?

I would have thought the debt and cash part would change how you choose your discount rate or earnings estimate, but not market cap.

Market cap doesn't determine future earnings too much, but with Berkshire it does, due to repurchases.

But aside from that market cap is everything. As the price you pay is what determines your result.

So it might not change your discount rate but will determine if it falls within it.

[SailorRob]

Are you talking about the CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model) here where you work out a 'cost of equity' and 'cost of debt', the blend the two together in a way that takes into account to proportion of debt and equity to give an appropriate 'overall discount rate'? That is only one way to select a discount rate. It doesn't rule out using another method.

SNOOPY

No, I don't really think in those terms, but in a roundabout way it's what matters. So I'm thinking in those terms without ever thinking in those terms....

[SailorRob]

Are you talking about the CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model) here where you work out a 'cost of equity' and 'cost of debt', the blend the two together in a way that takes into account to proportion of debt and equity to give an appropriate 'overall discount rate'? That is only one way to select a discount rate. It doesn't rule out using another method.

SNOOPY

As you allude to, you have to have an idea of what management are going to do with the excees cash or debt.

[ValueNZ]

Market cap doesn't determine future earnings too much, but with Berkshire it does, due to repurchases.

But aside from that market cap is everything. As the price you pay is what determines your result.

So it might not change your discount rate but will determine if it falls within it.
You understand the point I was making though right? Market cap doesn't impact your discount rate or earnings estimate (unless there is a share issue/repurchase), so why would you take into consideration enterprise value in your discount rate/earnings estimate. You would just take into consideration the financing structure directly instead of using a metric which is directly linked to market cap.

Of course market cap is important since it is essentially the price at which you are buying those future cash flows.

[SailorRob]

You understand the point I was making though right? Market cap doesn't impact your discount rate or earnings estimate (unless there is a share issue/repurchase), so why would you take into consideration enterprise value in your discount rate/earnings estimate. You would just take into consideration the financing structure directly instead of using a metric which is directly linked to market cap.

Of course market cap is important since it is essentially the price at which you are buying those future cash flows.

Yes I agree with this. You are thinking things through properly and show real understanding of the situation.

[SBQ]

How was precision a big loss? Are you talking about the write down? Need to be pretty careful analysing the precision deal, let's talk in 5 years.

Buffett says just about everything he has done is a mistake including probably the biggest success of his career, buying out GEICO.

Need to fully understand the tax scenario with mungers sell down and he's only just bought it... Let's judge in 2040.

As great fisherman heading out and coming home empty handed hasn't in my view necessarily made a mistake.

Buffett ditching his entire OXY position, or airlines before they ripped looks like mistakes, but they weren't. They were prudent actions at the time.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-berkshire-buffett-precisioncastparts-idUSKCN2AR0MZ

What's to be careful about? When you over pay you over pay and could take decades to recover.

Munger basically got burned when his DJCO holding began buying BABA back in 2021. The price kept going down where he doubled down in Oct 2021 at around $118. Then in April 2022, he bails out on BABA by selling half of their position... for a LOSS (i'm not sure where you were getting at on the tax scenario?). I would say he had to step down because he was risking DJCO with a portfolio of holding more than 20% in 1 Chinese stock.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3822440-charlie-mungers-daily-journal-cuts-its-alibaba-stake-in-half

Another bull on BABA is Michael Blurry (the guy that predicted the GFC crash).

But this is a MFB thread. Assessing the value of MFB is difficult (or easy depending on which side of the fence). I don't see similarities with this company and the ones that Buffett or Munger pick.

[SailorRob]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-berkshire-buffett-precisioncastparts-idUSKCN2AR0MZ

What's to be careful about? When you over pay you over pay and could take decades to recover.

Munger basically got burned when his DJCO holding began buying BABA back in 2021. The price kept going down where he doubled down in Oct 2021 at around $118. Then in April 2022, he bails out on BABA by selling half of their position... for a LOSS (i'm not sure where you were getting at on the tax scenario?). I would say he had to step down because he was risking DJCO with a portfolio of holding more than 20% in 1 Chinese stock.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3822440-charlie-mungers-daily-journal-cuts-its-alibaba-stake-in-half

Another bull on BABA is Michael Blurry (the guy that predicted the GFC crash).

But this is a MFB thread. Assessing the value of MFB is difficult (or easy depending on which side of the fence). I don't see similarities with this company and the ones that Buffett or Munger pick.

Now yes but they both made all their early money in My food bag situations.

BABA nothing at all to do with munger stepping down. He sold as made sense from tax perspective. If he thought he made a mistake he would have sold all.

Talk in 5 years about if Buffett overpaid for Precision. I'm not interested in reading articles about what others think, and what he says is irrelevant as he has a track record of calling some of his best decisions mistakes. As with Geico.

Remember you can pay a very high price for a business that has high returns on capital and ability to reinvest.

[bottomfeeder]

Up over 12% in a matter of weeks. Perhaps promoters starting to buy up, in preparation for going private, or in anticipation of class action. All good as far as I am concerned. I love catching falling knives of profitable companies.

[winner69]

Up over 12% in a matter of weeks. Perhaps promoters starting to buy up, in preparation for going private, or in anticipation of class action. All good as far as I am concerned. I love catching falling knives of profitable companies.

Well done on buying at 16 cents odd ..... always satisfying buying at the bottome eh

I don't think it'll go private ....but you may be right

Tell us when you start buying DGL ....please

[bottomfeeder]

Had no choice really, the first lot I bought at 21.5. Had to double down. My wife said Oh No at the time.

[Lego_Man]

Had no choice really, the first lot I bought at 21.5. Had to double down. My wife said Oh No at the time.

I suspect the 2 funds managers who've been dumping have finally decided that at this price, it's better to hold for the recovery. That is interesting in itself. Watch the SSH notices (or lack thereof).

It's amazing the snapback effect that can happen when you just have a bit of selling respite. Craig's 25c target price starting to look more relevant.

[Habits]

I suspect the 2 funds managers who've been dumping have finally decided that at this price, it's better to hold for the recovery. That is interesting in itself. Watch the SSH notices (or lack thereof).

It's amazing the snapback effect that can happen when you just have a bit of selling respite. Craig's 25c target price starting to look more relevant.

250k shares worth $55

A decent sum

[Baa_Baa]

250k shares worth $55

A decent sum

When an investment turns into a trading stock, you know that the mums and dads, and customers, who were sucked into the mess, are the least likely to know how to trade themselves back into profit. The whole thing is a disgusting mess and a blight on the NZX for letting it happen, it was so obvious anyone could see it, just early investors exiting their investment to the uninformed at a grossly over inflated price. Appalling behaviours from them, fleecing the uninformed, and this is now a traders stock. There might be money to be made, but in all good conscience, are you prepared to prey on the unwilling and uninformed who got sucked into this shambles and clean them out? I'm not, even though it's obvious. Shame.

[stoploss]

When an investment turns into a trading stock, you know that the mums and dads, and customers, who were sucked into the mess, are the least likely to know how to trade themselves back into profit. The whole thing is a disgusting mess and a blight on the NZX for letting it happen, it was so obvious anyone could see it, just early investors exiting their investment to the uninformed at a grossly over inflated price. Appalling behaviours from them, fleecing the uninformed, and this is now a traders stock. There might be money to be made, but in all good conscience, are you prepared to prey on the unwilling and uninformed who got sucked into this shambles and clean them out? I'm not, even though it's obvious. Shame.
The biggest seller down here has been Harbour Asset Management .
They are far from uninformed and are a WILLING seller . So I don’t see
the problem taking advantage of their investment mistake and current trading decision .

[Baa_Baa]

The biggest seller down here has been Harbour Asset Management .
They are far from uninformed and are a WILLING seller . So I don’t see
the problem taking advantage of their investment mistake and current trading decision .

Are they selling at a massive loss? Selling is an investment "mistake" that traders can take advantage of, that's fine if you think MFB is still a good investment and buying. Or maybe a trade, buying them and selling later, hopefully at a profit?

It might also be helpful to look at how many they're putting on market as a percentage to their total exposure, what they hold.

[Habits]

Are they selling at a massive loss? Selling is an investment "mistake" that traders can take advantage of, that's fine if you think MFB is still a good investment and buying. Or maybe a trade, buying them and selling later, hopefully at a profit?

It might also be helpful to look at how many they're putting on market as a percentage to their total exposure, what they hold.

Its a bite size investment so to speak, and much more so now. In terms of their meal offerings 5 nights of dinners for 4 people under $160 delivered is good value for healthy food.

[bottomfeeder]

Its a bite size investment so to speak, and much more so now. In terms of their meal offerings 5 nights of dinners for 4 people under $160 delivered is good value for healthy food.

Good value at the moment, but I think if the current food inflationary pressures continue then they will have to increase prices. Mind you consumers are at a stage where price rises are expected, and accepted.

As for taking advantage of those investors that bought in at the IPO. No one is forced to buy or to sell their "investment". I believe there are investors who should not be in the market. Buy high and sell low is no way to invest. But it is a recognised psychological investment principle where an investor gets totally illusioned with their particular stock or all their investments and just want to distance themselves from the pain.

As far as the promoters taking the company private. That would be on their minds, because the continued presence of a failed value company will always taint their reputation. That combined with the need to inject some capital to get the company moving back to strength, that can't be done by a capital raise( wouldn't that be disgusting), bank debt would be hard to get, bond issue out of the question, that leaves only shareholders loans or issue additional shares to a willing party, but at what price. So complete takeover, and go private is the only way out. That's my hope anyway.

[SailorRob]

but in all good conscience, are you prepared to prey on the unwilling and uninformed who got sucked into this shambles and clean them out? I'm not, even though it's obvious. Shame.


If anyone knows Baa_Baa personally I'd appreciate it if they could get hold of him and let him know his sharetrader account has been hacked.

[RRR]

MFB needs no capital..they are capital light and profitable. Valuation has become ultra cheap. Only 2 institutional investors are in the shareholder list and they have lost money! This scenario is favourable to retail investors..

[ValueNZ]

Up over 12% in a matter of weeks. Perhaps promoters starting to buy up, in preparation for going private, or in anticipation of class action. All good as far as I am concerned. I love catching falling knives of profitable companies.
Not good for me. I was looking to purchase a small amount once it fell below ~12c... Although it's still possible, so I'll stay hopeful.

[winner69]

If anyone knows Baa_Baa personally I'd appreciate it if they could get hold of him and let him know his sharetrader account has been hacked.

Bloody heck …hackers in action …..is nothing safe these days

[Rawz]

Waiting for half year to see the active customer numbers which I expect to have fallen again due to the cost of living issues.

We cancelled our MFG after I noticed they charged us $50 for a butter chicken family pie with side salad. Too much when you can buy a very tasty and similar ‘who ate all the pies’ family pie for $19 at the supermarket

[troyvdh]

Rawz...Isn't it a fairly basic process to purchase your own food supply.......

[ralph]

Waiting for half year to see the active customer numbers which I expect to have fallen again due to the cost of living issues.

We cancelled our MFG after I noticed they charged us $50 for a butter chicken family pie with side salad. Too much when you can buy a very tasty and similar ‘who ate all the pies’ family pie for $19 at the supermarket
Gotta watch those extras Rawz they always ping you for them

[Fortunecookie]

I have noticed the price of chicken and red meat in general have gone down. But vegetables are still insanely expensive.

I wonder what impact it will have on MFB. One the one hand, meat being a key ingredient margins will improve. The other hand, households may consider relatively speaking getting it from the supermarket as providing more value.

For example I saw tandoori split chicken for $7 each. Get a couple of those, salad bag. Serve it up with rice or potatoes. Total cost between $20 and $25 for a family of 4.

[Rawz]

Rawz...Isn't it a fairly basic process to purchase your own food supply.......

Yes.. but you know two working parents with two kids under 5.. Mrs Rawz signs us up to make it easier but then I find out the cost and convince her we can do it ourselves. The $50 pie was what killed it lol

MFB can be cost effective because it gives you exactly the amount of food you need so never any waste. However we found that we were buying the 15min- 25min cooks a lot and if you do that you are better to just go to the supermarket.

[troyvdh]

Thanks the point.I live in CHCH...I purchase veges from growers...Yes I understand working parents blah.....But surely purchasing food in say the weekend for the week can be a joy surely.BTW Im no way a good cook by any measure.cheers..
And Im not a vegetarian .

[Rawz]

Often when I go to the supermarket I just magically forget the thousands of meals I’ve made in my life.. and therefore I don’t know what to buy lol

This is what is good about MFG. no thinking

[mistaTea]

Often when I go to the supermarket I just magically forget the thousands of meals I’ve made in my life.. and therefore I don’t know what to buy lol

This is what is good about MFG. no thinking
Agreed.

Allows you to include more variety in your diet, with most recipes only taking about half an hour to make.

When left to our own devices, most of us just make the same 3 or 4 ‘recipes’ on auto pilot.

Life is busy, and trying to think up a new recipe is hard.

[RTM]

Agreed.

Allows you to include more variety in your diet, with most recipes only taking about half an hour to make.

When left to our own devices, most of us just make the same 3 or 4 ‘recipes’ on auto pilot.

Life is busy, and trying to think up a new recipe is hard.

Since we’ve retired it’s like living in a restaurant. Is there a MFB option for just 3/4 standard recipes ?😋

[SBQ]

I may have mentioned this before. I do most of the cooking in this house with 2 children. The meals that MFB offer don't appeal to us everyday and a lot of the cooking I do takes a lot of skill. For eg. Crispy Skin Pork you see in the Chinese restaurants. This involved picking the right pork belly (so it's skin is not pierced through), making the salt crust (yes you need a lot of salt), and above all, execution in the oven at the right time and temperature. Then there's all the marinating of meats like cha sui or Korean Kalbi (beef short ribs). My children will eat those any day than the simple toss the ingredients in a pot kind of deal.

ESG.. how environmentally friendly is MFB having all these meals delivered? There's a lot of packaging going on to say deliver individual portions of rice when an Asian family buys the rice in a 20kg bag.

[stoploss]

I may have mentioned this before. I do most of the cooking in this house with 2 children. The meals that MFB offer don't appeal to us everyday and a lot of the cooking I do takes a lot of skill. For eg. Crispy Skin Pork you see in the Chinese restaurants. This involved picking the right pork belly (so it's skin is not pierced through), making the salt crust (yes you need a lot of salt), and above all, execution in the oven at the right time and temperature. Then there's all the marinating of meats like cha sui or Korean Kalbi (beef short ribs). My children will eat those any day than the simple toss the ingredients in a pot kind of deal.

ESG.. how environmentally friendly is MFB having all these meals delivered? There's a lot of packaging going on to say deliver individual portions of rice when an Asian family buys the rice in a 20kg bag.
https://blog.myfoodbag.co.nz/2021/03/31/soft-plastic-recycling/

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.vox.com/down-to-earth/2023/6/7/23743640/plastic-pollution-un-treaty-oceans-waste

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.vox.com/down-to-earth/20...y-oceans-waste (https://www.vox.com/down-to-earth/2023/6/7/23743640/plastic-pollution-un-treaty-oceans-waste)

[SBQ]

https://www.vox.com/down-to-earth/2023/6/7/23743640/plastic-pollution-un-treaty-oceans-waste

The right approach is to simply... use less of it.

@ stoploss: MFB plastic recycling program is not the solution.

Today at Pak N Save there's a notice that they will be removing single use plastic bags in the produce section. My immediate thought was food hygiene, as relying on consumers to use their bags will never be as clean as the clear plastic bags that are thin and difficult to open :O Then there's the issue of cross contamination with the meats packages where you mix both the fresh produce and meats in the same bag. Yes one should keep them in separate but the hands can not discriminate. Touching the meat packs, then touch the fresh fruits and vegetables while you place them in appropriate bags. Then at the checkout, you're handling them again. Having the single use plastic bag provides a clear barrier protects against this contamination.

Have we gone too far with this plastic issue? Yes we should be using less but how much less? We have already eliminated the plastic bags at the checkout counters.

[winner69]

I may have mentioned this before. I do most of the cooking in this house with 2 children. The meals that MFB offer don't appeal to us everyday and a lot of the cooking I do takes a lot of skill. For eg. Crispy Skin Pork you see in the Chinese restaurants. This involved picking the right pork belly (so it's skin is not pierced through), making the salt crust (yes you need a lot of salt), and above all, execution in the oven at the right time and temperature. Then there's all the marinating of meats like cha sui or Korean Kalbi (beef short ribs). My children will eat those any day than the simple toss the ingredients in a pot kind of deal.

ESG.. how environmentally friendly is MFB having all these meals delivered? There's a lot of packaging going on to say deliver individual portions of rice when an Asian family buys the rice in a 20kg bag.

What was for dinner tonight?

I didn’t get an invite ;)

[mistaTea]

I may have mentioned this before. I do most of the cooking in this house with 2 children. The meals that MFB offer don't appeal to us everyday and a lot of the cooking I do takes a lot of skill. For eg. Crispy Skin Pork you see in the Chinese restaurants. This involved picking the right pork belly (so it's skin is not pierced through), making the salt crust (yes you need a lot of salt), and above all, execution in the oven at the right time and temperature. Then there's all the marinating of meats like cha sui or Korean Kalbi (beef short ribs). My children will eat those any day than the simple toss the ingredients in a pot kind of deal.

ESG.. how environmentally friendly is MFB having all these meals delivered? There's a lot of packaging going on to say deliver individual portions of rice when an Asian family buys the rice in a 20kg bag.

Can I please come over for dinner mate.

God damn that sounds good.

[clip]

Often when I go to the supermarket I just magically forget the thousands of meals I’ve made in my life.. and therefore I don’t know what to buy lol

This is what is good about MFG. no thinking

You should do delivery grocers or click and collect or take a list.. all easy options and easy to track how much you are going to spend, know what you are going to make/eat etc. You can even look at the MFB website and just make the same meals they would give you that week anyway lol

[Rawz]

You should do delivery grocers or click and collect or take a list.. all easy options and easy to track how much you are going to spend, know what you are going to make/eat etc. You can even look at the MFB website and just make the same meals they would give you that week anyway lol
Yes you are absolutely right.

But you know.. why do all that when I can just pay someone (MFB) to do it? And that is how MFB works.

But we stopped it because of the $50 pie lol

[Daytr]

Hello Fresh being absolutely slated in an interview on RNZ, heaps of negative feedback. Good / Bad for My Food Bag?

[Rawz]

Hello Fresh being absolutely slated in an interview on RNZ, heaps of negative feedback. Good / Bad for My Food Bag?

Its actually bad. Because any bad news is good news.
So when Hello Fresh has good news from bad news it cannot transfer to good news for MFB, only bad news.

[Rawz]

Its actually bad. Because any bad news is good news.
So when Hello Fresh has good news from bad news it cannot transfer to good news for MFB, only bad news.

Might have interpreted it wrong...

MFB up 21% wow :eek2:

[silverblizzard888]

Looks like the market sentiment on MFB is starting to change for the better.

[troyvdh]

Woof Woof.

[Lego_Man]

Hello Fresh being absolutely slated in an interview on RNZ, heaps of negative feedback. Good / Bad for My Food Bag?

Would not be surprised if Hello Fresh pulled out of NZ soon. They abandoned Japan after a year, and NZ is a lot of work for little reward.

[silverblizzard888]

Would not be surprised if Hello Fresh pulled out of NZ soon. They abandoned Japan after a year, and NZ is a lot of work for little reward.


It was quite a different scenario for them in Japan, so I don't think they will be leaving NZ anytime soon given how established the market is for them here and the business has been operating since 2018. This type of food model also suits more western type lifestyles. Though if the market was to continue to shrink and it wasn't worth it, then they would give up on it or mostly likely sell off the NZ business since its a profitable business and worth something rather than withdraw with no value, which still leaves a competitor. In the case they were to withdraw and leave entirely then it would be a massive boost for MFB and the value for the stock would double overnight.

These sentences from this article basically sums up why they left Japan:

"HelloFresh ceased operations in Japan last month, having launched there only nine months ago.

“pressure and increased focus on profitability and the long (and likely bumpy) road ahead to get to reasonable unit economics in Japan, as well as the vast investment we would have to make along the way, have led to this decision”."
https://www.thegrocer.co.uk/online/hellofreshs-exit-from-japan-was-last-minute-decision-claims-source/675195.article

The most ideal move would be a merger between Hellofresh's NZ operation and MFB, which is the approach that Uber took did back in the days when it gave up trying to dominate certain countries.

[Fortunecookie]

It was quite a different scenario for them in Japan, so I don't think they will be leaving NZ anytime soon given how established the market is for them here and the business has been operating since 2018. This type of food model also suits more western type lifestyles. Though if the market was to continue to shrink and it wasn't worth it, then they would give up on it or mostly likely sell off the NZ business since its a profitable business and worth something rather than withdraw with no value, which still leaves a competitor. In the case they were to withdraw and leave entirely then it would be a massive boost for MFB and the value for the stock would double overnight.

These sentences from this article basically sums up why they left Japan:

"HelloFresh ceased operations in Japan last month, having launched there only nine months ago.

“pressure and increased focus on profitability and the long (and likely bumpy) road ahead to get to reasonable unit economics in Japan, as well as the vast investment we would have to make along the way, have led to this decision”."
https://www.thegrocer.co.uk/online/hellofreshs-exit-from-japan-was-last-minute-decision-claims-source/675195.article

The most ideal move would be a merger between Hellofresh's NZ operation and MFB, which is the approach that Uber took did back in the days when it gave up trying to dominate certain countries.

It's a different market. Very different work culture and time is more of a luxury there. There are plenty of convenient meal options available. I suspect the household demographic is different as well.

[bottomfeeder]

Had to happen increase delivery cost from $10 to $15.

[clearasmud]

Had to happen increase delivery cost from $10 to $15.

Like my haircut went from 10 to $15

[Habits]

Like my haircut went from 10 to $15

We decided to gift our next order to a young relative who wants to try it. I know they could afford it themselves, like always they say they cannot afford it lolz

MFB was so good about it in redirecting the order providing its within the same island. Yes within the same island, you read that right

That is a cheap haircut btw, my barber increased from 15 to 25. Still charges me 20, so cool of him

[bottomfeeder]

The increase won't stop our purchases of made meals. Very handy to have in the freezer. Very tasty. Most consumers accept that in today's climate increases are likely.

[clearasmud]

The increase won't stop our purchases of made meals. Very handy to have in the freezer. Very tasty. Most consumers accept that in today's climate increases are likely.

I live mostly on vege soups,salad with muesli,nuts,yoghurt,fruit desert.
Easy to do but I am old .

[clearasmud]

That is a cheap haircut btw, my barber increased from 15 to 25. Still charges me 20, so cool of him[/QUOTE]

Moved to Brisbane,Australia in 2021 ha ha

[nztx]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/polar-capitals-hello-foods-20m-in-creditor-claims-in-receivership-and-liquidation/I3NT7VWGUNAXJJZNADBSE5OK7Q/

Polar Capital’s Hello Foods: $20m in creditor claims in receivership and liquidation

Creditors going to be taking a severe hair cut here .. Hello Goodbye style ;)

[bottomfeeder]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/polar-capitals-hello-foods-20m-in-creditor-claims-in-receivership-and-liquidation/I3NT7VWGUNAXJJZNADBSE5OK7Q/

Polar Capital’s Hello Foods: $20m in creditor claims in receivership and liquidation

Creditors going to be taking a severe hair cut here .. Hello Goodbye style ;)

A minor competitor bites the dust.

[bottomfeeder]

SP on the move again. Could be a classic Pump and Dump takeover. Well see.

[stoploss]

SP on the move again. Could be a classic Pump and Dump takeover. Well see.
19-19.2 range for the day so far that's not much of a move, volume is small (246K) doesn't indicate anything happening imo.

[bottomfeeder]

19-19.2 range for the day so far that's not much of a move, volume is small (246K) doesn't indicate anything happening imo.

Who ever was doing it must have read my post, and now they have become more cunning. Haha. I'm not selling I'm holding out for 35 cents.

[bottomfeeder]

Who ever was doing it must have read my post, and now they have become more cunning. Haha. I'm not selling I'm holding out for 35 cents.
Argh, I scared them off. I will keep my mouth shut when the next run starts.

[winner69]

Share price back in the 20s again. All this pumping and dumping means corporate action? Well see.

[ralph]

Share price back in the 20s again. All this pumping and dumping means corporate action? Well see.
I don't think i would actually class it as pumping & dumping with only 13 grandes worth of sales for the day & with 28 trades !!!

[ralph]

[QUOTE=ralph;1010230]I don't think i would actually class it as pumping & dumping with only 13 grandes worth of sales for the day & with 28 trades !!![/QUOTE

OOps Take it all back winner with a big buy after hours
for 10,000$ pumping it up !!!

[bottomfeeder]

19-19.2 range for the day so far that's not much of a move, volume is small (246K) doesn't indicate anything happening imo.

425k shares changed hands today. In its heyday aound the $800,000 worth. OK its nor $800,000 but its not the money its the number of shares transacted and the affect it has on the SP. Whoever is buying, they are patient buyers. Realistically they have all of at least 4 months to accumulate, before next results are announced.

[Nigelk]

Yeah, it's not huge volumes, so if it's a takeover play, it's going to be a while before they accumulate enough it this rate.
I'm just happy to be in profit, although I won't be retiring off my gains just yet.

[Habits]

Yeah, it's not huge volumes, so if it's a takeover play, it's going to be a while before they accumulate enough it this rate.
I'm just happy to be in profit, although I won't be retiring off my gains just yet.

Congrats for being in profit, others may be sitting on losses at this low price. You could be looking at doubling your money in the not too distant future.

[stoploss]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/132476168/people-think-theyre-getting-a-good-deal-with-food-kits--but-is-that-really-the-case

[Balance]

And he is off - Jon MacDonald quits the Board so he can start distancing himself from the MFB disaster.

Says a lot about the calibre of the directors the company put together to guide the future of this ‘great’ company!

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/414386

[winner69]

Good soul is Jon ..known as MACCHIATO. Gave MFB some ‘credibility’ pre IPO but probably regrets it didn’t turn out as well as his success at Trade Me

Mr Macdonald said "I am grateful to have had the opportunity to serve on the Board of My Food Bag and I have every confidence in this excellent Kiwi business going forward. I will continue to be a shareholder, vocal supporter and enthusiastic customer of My Food Bag after I depart at the end of the year. In the meantime, I wish the broader My Food Bag team all the very best."

[Nigelk]

Thanks. I've never looked seriously at it previously, but thought it was a good buy at below 0.20. I can see it doubling when they resume paying dividends

[silverblizzard888]

This should provide some boost for the stock and those comparing MFB and Hellofresh.


The most popular meal kit in New Zealand revealed
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2023/07/hello-fresh-or-bargain-box-the-most-popular-meal-kit-in-new-zealand-revealed.html

Bargain Box came out first in the (Canstar) survey, with five-star ratings for overall satisfaction and great value for money.

Despite rounding up in 2nd place, My Food Bag saw five stars in variety of meals, freshness of food, and customer service.

And last, but potentially not least in the eyes of some loyal Hello Fresh'ers, the rating wasn't too impressive, with stars sitting quite low

[Habits]

Thanks for the post

[Lego_Man]

This should provide some boost for the stock and those comparing MFB and Hellofresh.


The most popular meal kit in New Zealand revealed
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2023/07/hello-fresh-or-bargain-box-the-most-popular-meal-kit-in-new-zealand-revealed.html

Bargain Box came out first in the (Canstar) survey, with five-star ratings for overall satisfaction and great value for money.

Despite rounding up in 2nd place, My Food Bag saw five stars in variety of meals, freshness of food, and customer service.

And last, but potentially not least in the eyes of some loyal Hello Fresh'ers, the rating wasn't too impressive, with stars sitting quite low

Bargain Box is a superb offering from a customer point of view, less margin for the business though. However in an economic up cycle we should see a switch back from Bargain Box customers to higher margin boxes (I'm speaking from experience). In the meantime it's just about keeping the customers.

There's no reason for anyone to be with HelloFresh over Bargain Box, it's simply an awful product. The only people I know who use it consistently are hard-up students, and they constantly switch on and off to exploit the renewal discounts.

[RRR]

26 cents now - up from 16 cents! Still very cheap..and profitable

[Lego_Man]

One of those situations where you want to keep a close eye on the SSH notices...

[Habits]

26 cents now - up from 16 cents! Still very cheap..and profitable

I ended up buying too many MFB and was freaking out when the sp raced lower. In the green now. Helps pay for other duds

[troyvdh]

Woof Woof...gnarl.

[Habits]

Mfb is busy sending out candy to shareholders. UP 7 pct

[Habits]

Mfb is busy sending out candy to shareholders. UP 7 pct

Spoke too soon ... jinxed it

[winner69]

Spoke too soon ... jinxed it

Maybe Milford took opportunity to see a few more

Amazing such a pre-eminent fund manager still has 17 million shares eh

[Baa_Baa]

Maybe Milford took opportunity to see a few more

Amazing such a pre-eminent fund manager still has 17 million shares eh

They're in so deep it would feck them to capitulate now, like they say a long term investment is a trade gone wrong. They're in it for the long term, no choice, regardless of how the feel about it. Their trusting investors better hope they're right eh?

[Rawz]

When is the next update? This cost of living crisis maybe shaved off a few more customers from the total.

It’s hard out there eh

[Habits]

When is the next update? This cost of living crisis maybe shaved off a few more customers from the total.

It’s hard out there eh

What's the customer demographic ... if its young homeowners then customers will be dropping

[winner69]

They're in so deep it would feck them to capitulate now, like they say a long term investment is a trade gone wrong. They're in it for the long term, no choice, regardless of how the feel about it. Their trusting investors better hope they're right eh?

Milford spent $28.5m at IPO in March 2021

Loved MFB so much topped up with another $4.2m at average of $1.41 in period to June 2021

Became cheaper and cheaper so spent another $3.4m in period through to November 2021 at average $1.18

Since then they’ve been net sellers (only 2 million shares) but as average is 90 cents you have to think they sold most of those a while ago and been holding for better times

Overall the 18.7 million shares they still holding have cost them $34.3m

They are worth $3.7m at the moment

Win some and lose some …not one of their best market plays

[Rawz]

Wow that’s some paper loss. Always good to remember the paid professionals that spend all day researching and analyzing get it wrong.

So when I get it wrong after working all day in my normal job and making an investment with a fraction of the time spent researching it’s not that bad.

[winner69]

Wow that’s some paper loss. Always good to remember the paid professionals that spend all day researching and analyzing get it wrong.

So when I get it wrong after working all day in my normal job and making an investment with a fraction of the time spent researching it’s not that bad.

The lesson could end up as if you keep the faith it’ll eventually reward you big time

[Rawz]

The lesson could end up as if you keep the faith it’ll eventually reward you big time

Yes although with MFG it’s More like keep the faith and you may get your money back

[ValueNZ]

Wow that’s some paper loss. Always good to remember the paid professionals that spend all day researching and analyzing get it wrong.

So when I get it wrong after working all day in my normal job and making an investment with a fraction of the time spent researching it’s not that bad.
The paid professionals spend all day researching, get it wrong and it's your average joe investor that foots the bill!

Anyone with half a brain could see that there was no way the IPO price was remotely a fair deal at the time.

[silverblizzard888]

Its a tale of 3 fails:

1. Retail investors bought into the stock because of the name, it was all the rage during covid and everyone loved the idea, but failed to look deeper and do some research that it was over priced and how it could fail in the exact same way it succeeded when consumers changed their lifestyle after covid subsided and they didn't fear going back outside. They trusted the name and they trusted the professionals to price it right.

2. Professionals also got it wrong, they ate up all the financials, then priced it to the moon and could not see the change in consumers lifestyle would change after fears of covid dampened, the enormous competition from Hellofresh and the economic pressures of inflation. They got a taste of their own medicine when they sold themselves on the story and the potential that the company could build on top of their existing offerings.

3. Management team fail to diversify the company's revenue sources. They thought if they kept repeating what they were doing they could keep reaping the same rewards and never made any major push to diversify their revenues. They built on their original offering with bargain box and they also added shopping for extra items, but ultimately relied too heavily on the success of the original food bag doing well. They spoke of the tremendous potential of utilsing their network and consumer base, but never did much with it and the potential never materialised.

I would have thought building a wellness platform would have been the ideal way to diversify towards, selling supplements, shakes and skincare. Everything wives and mothers would find convenient and useful without needing to leave the house. Thats what ultimately was the reaason for their success, people wanted convenience because they either didn't have the time to shop or they just simply didn't want to or couldn't leave the house, of course theres also the ones who simply didn't know what to cook, these are the consumers who have ultimately stayed.

[ralph]

They certainly got carried away by that Ipo and bought the dream Silver B, as has been said many times resting on their lofty Laurels .
But they are still a profitable company very rare at that price & have made a lot of big changes , the Best i m h o being stopping paying such a humongus divvi .

[silverblizzard888]

They certainly got carried away by that Ipo and bought the dream Silver B, as has been said many times resting on their lofty Laurels .
But they are still a profitable company very rare at that price & have made a lot of big changes , the Best i m h o being stopping paying such a humongus divvi .

They've adopted the strategy of saving a sinking ship. Unload all the unnecessary expenses, save what they can and try to sail for stable land. At the current time being they have all the right intentions and they will continue to be profitable, but how profitable remains a big question. They really need to diversify their offerings, they keep trying to save what they have left rather than trying to build outwards and make more.

[ralph]

They've adopted the strategy of saving a sinking ship. Unload all the unnecessary expenses, save what they can and try to sail for stable land. At the current time being they have all the right intentions and they will continue to be profitable, but how profitable remains a big question. They really need to diversify their offerings, they keep trying to save what they have left rather than trying to build outwards and make more.

A lot of sensible companies adopt such an attitude when wanting to remain profitable with a low level of debt and still generating positive cashflows .
That is the question will they continue as such .
Obviously some cannot achieve this quite a lot actually when they are not doing a capital raise

[Baa_Baa]

There is a good news story to MFB depending on ones perspective. It has to be one of the most successful NZ exit strategies for the foundation investors. They got away with many millions and left the company for the followers (and lol, the promoters) who gravely underestimated the company's value at the time.

[winner69]

Shouldn’t be too hard on these fundies …and even punters …for paying what they did for MFB in the IPO

It was at a time when the market was on fire with plenty of happy excited punters


At the time MFT was on its way to $100 ….FPH was about $35 ……OCA was $1.50 and even PEB was going great guns around $1.20 heading to $1.50

In that environment back then MFB could have been seen as cheap eh

[ValueNZ]

Shouldn’t be too hard on these fundies …and even punters …for paying what they did for MFB in the IPO

It was at a time when the market was on fire with plenty of happy excited punters


At the time MFT was on its way to $100 ….FPH was about $35 ……OCA was $1.50 and even PEB was going great guns around $1.20 heading to $1.50

In this environment MFB could be seen as cheap eh
I don't think MFB is worth $50m, so I wouldn't call it cheap myself. But who knows maybe next year it'll be priced at $100m as some posters here are hoping and I'll eat my words.

When MFB was $0.16 I set a price notification for $0.11. I don't think it will ever reach $0.11 at this point but if it does, assuming the fundamentals haven't declined heavily I'll start accumulating shares.

[winner69]

I don't think MFB is worth $50m, so I wouldn't call it cheap myself. But who knows maybe next year it'll be priced at $100m as some posters here are hoping and I'll eat my words.

When MFB was $0.16 I set a price notification for $0.11. I don't think it will ever reach $0.11 at this point but if it does, assuming the fundamentals haven't declined heavily I'll start accumulating shares.

Sorry, I was talking retrospectively in that at the time of IPO $1.85 could have been seen to be cheap.

and now changed post to ‘ In that environment back then MFB could have been seen as cheap eh’

No comment about current valuation

[Balance]

I don't think MFB is worth $50m, so I wouldn't call it cheap myself. But who knows maybe next year it'll be priced at $100m as some posters here are hoping and I'll eat my words.

When MFB was $0.16 I set a price notification for $0.11. I don't think it will ever reach $0.11 at this point but if it does, assuming the fundamentals haven't declined heavily I'll start accumulating shares.

And Waterman & original shareholders knew that the exuberant time then was exactly right to sell the over-hyped and over-priced MFB to the dumb instos and punters.

I recall you got sucked in as well for a trade, W69?

[winner69]

And Waterman & original shareholders knew that the exuberant time then was exactly right to sell the over-hyped and over-priced MFB to the dumb instos and punters.

I recall you got sucked in as well for a trade, W69?

Was all going to as per the IPO play book until the idiot CEO Bowler prematurely skited about things ‘going better than’ and that stuffed up the post IPO boost ……so I was out pretty quick but managed to borrow a few to short …sort of regret buying in 120s to return the borrowed ones.

What’s interesting MFB still following the track that Metro Glass has taken …fascinating

[blackcap]

Not sure if anyone has mentioned it here before. But if you look at the balance sheet for FY23, you will pretty much quickly deduce that the company borrowed a crap load of money to effectively pay the dividend.

I wonder if the major shareholder puts pressure on them to pay divs?

[winner69]

Not sure if anyone has mentioned it here before. But if you look at the balance sheet for FY23, you will pretty much quickly deduce that the company borrowed a crap load of money to effectively pay the dividend.

I wonder if the major shareholder puts pressure on them to pay divs?

When they announced the Interim Dividend Tony said “This interim dividend represents confidence in the business, with the asset light operating model allowing growth to be funded internally,”

When you hear things like ‘represents confidence’ as a reason for paying a dividend when they shouldn’t it really means they are taking a big punt and hoping like he’ll that things will come right

Didn’t did it so no final divie eh …learnt the lesson and ‘taken the prudent approach not to pay a final dividend’ but no worries divies OK in future

[Sideshow Bob]

AGM presos

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/416531

[winner69]

Bugger missed the meeting

Any tricky / tough questions

Often good entertainment.

[winner69]

In NBR report. Hope this shareholder got a hugecround of applause anzac few hugs ans cuddles after the meeting.

One shareholder was pleased by the AGM’s conclusion.

“Please continue focusing on making money,” he said. “I bought 750,000 shares on listing. I am down a lot. I came to the meeting prepared to sell, now I will not.”

[silverblizzard888]

In NBR report. Hope this shareholder got a hugecround of applause anzac few hugs ans cuddles after the meeting.

One shareholder was pleased by the AGM’s conclusion.

“Please continue focusing on making money,” he said. “I bought 750,000 shares on listing. I am down a lot. I came to the meeting prepared to sell, now I will not.”

Wow they spent 750k shares x $1.85 = $1,387,000 and today its worth $270,562

MFB should be giving them a life time of food bags for their loss!

A full price weekly subscription for 4 people and 5 days meal plan is $219.99 thats $11,439.48 a year.
Their loss is $1,116,438 / $11,439.48 = 97.6 years of food bags

[carrom74]

Wow they spent 750k shares x $1.85 = $1,387,000 and today its worth $270,562

MFB should be giving them a life time of food bags for their loss!

A full price weekly subscription for 4 people and 5 days meal plan is $219.99 thats $11,439.48 a year.
Their loss is $1,116,438 / $11,439.48 = 97.6 years of food bags

Or to make it more practical feed his whole street or suburb or even his village.looks like a bottomless pit!

[Popeye]

By my maths this business is going to be roughly break-even in F24 It should however produce $5-10m of operating cashflow. If they are smart they will use any spare cash to repay the debt they incurred to pay the interim F23 "confidence in the business" dividend. Sure they will look stupid having paid it in the first place, but that ship has sailed so they should just do what the business needs. And what it does not need is debt.

If they can make it out the other side and return to growth they will have options, but at this stage they do not seem to be focused on growth, more operational efficiency and cost control. Not a bad thing in itself, but they also need to develop the business to take advantage of the distribution footprint they have. In theory they should be able secure good margin through the addition of new lines such as staple ingredients. Hopefully they are onto this.

Its a bit sad that this business is still not a screaming buy at 19.5c. Keeping the business positive in a recession whilst having a few growth initiatives on the go could do the trick, until then they are at the mercy of the wider economy (and Hello Fresh not discounting itself into oblivion)

[Balance]

AGM presos

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/416531

Most telling comment from the ASM:

"We are now over four months into our FY24 financial year. While we anticipate our financial results for the upcoming half year will be behind the prior year due to the category-wide reduction in
demand that we experienced in the second half of FY23, demand seems to have stablised and we are trading close to our expectations for the year to date which has been pleasing to see."

So they have not yet arrested the continuous fall in profits (NPAT) since 2021:

H1 F23 $5.9m vs H1 F22 $9.4m (-37%)
H2 F23 $2.0m vs H2 F22 $11.6m (-83%)

W69's favorite Chairman on the left :

https://media.businessdesk.co.nz/file/c_fill,w_700,q_100/Mark-Winter-CEO-of-My-Food-Bag-and-Tony-Carter-Chair-of-My-Food-Bag-Z.webp

[winner69]

Hey Balance I see Tony has scored himself a bit of jaunt on the Ravensdown board

Keeping himself busy eh

[Balance]

Hey Balance I see Tony has scored himself a bit of jaunt on the Ravensdown board

Keeping himself busy eh

Not what you know but who you know?

Both in the food business?

[Popeye]

Yes. Sales were down 14.9% PYP and gross margin of 21.55% was down 3.72% on prior HY.

If stabilising and meeting expectations means sales maintained at -15% and margins the lowest they have ever had, this is not very confidence inspiring. These metrics are why I reckon they will do well to get anywhere North of break even in the current FY.

Maybe Tony C needs to declare another "confidence" dividend to pump up deflated investors? Just kidding. TC is actually a smart guy, but sometimes smart guys have lapses in judgment.


Most telling comment from the ASM:

"We are now over four months into our FY24 financial year. While we anticipate our financial results for the upcoming half year will be behind the prior year due to the category-wide reduction in
demand that we experienced in the second half of FY23, demand seems to have stablised and we are trading close to our expectations for the year to date which has been pleasing to see."

So they have not yet arrested the continuous fall in profits (NPAT) since 2021:

H1 F23 $5.9m vs H1 F22 $9.4m (-37%)
H2 F23 $2.0m vs H2 F22 $11.6m (-83%)

W69's favorite Chairman on the left :

[winner69]

Not what you know but who you know?

Both in the food business?

Well he was a grocer once eh …a big grocer at that

And he would have learnt a few tricks at Fletchers

And he did ‘run an airline once’ too

And Waterman were pretty crafty getting him as the credible face MFB for the IPO

My man Tony

[Balance]

Yes. Sales were down 14.9% PYP and gross margin of 21.55% was down 3.72% on prior HY.

If stabilising and meeting expectations means sales maintained at -15% and margins the lowest they have ever had, this is not very confidence inspiring. These metrics are why I reckon they will do well to get anywhere North of break even in the current FY.

Maybe Tony C needs to declare another "confidence" dividend to pump up deflated investors? Just kidding. TC is actually a smart guy, but sometimes smart guys have lapses in judgment.

Tony C has been exuding confidence about MFB’s prospects & future since Day 1 of the IPO.

Guess there’s nothing else he can do given nobody else from the IPO is left to take responsibility!

[nztx]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/my-food-bag-defends-executive-salaries-remains-focused-on-right-sizing/GJXGNXCIZBABPCIZG2JNPLUCFM/

My Food Bag defends executive salaries, remains focused on ‘right-sizing’


Any sign of Crispy baked nicely fattened up MFB Execs yet or are they still blowing cute little Feel Good smokeballs upwards ? ;)

No sign of downsizing the bags yet or are the executive squatters positioning for a jump onto seats on new wakas
if things really turn to uncharted curry & the new sized bags dont fit over their heads @ MFB ? ;)

[X-men]

Feel sorry for the holder that put all his money ...$1.38m....

Term deposit can return at least 5-6%

But why put all his eggs into one nest?

I would split it to at least 20 companies...across NZX and ASX

[nztx]

Feel sorry for the holder that put all his money ...$1.38m....

Term deposit can return at least 5-6%

But why put all his eggs into one nest?

I would split it to at least 20 companies...across NZX and ASX


Did he consider operating as a "Trader" or did the prospects shine too brightly at the time ? ;)

Wonder who fed him all the buttered up BS to make such a decision ?

[Rawz]

MFB…. Buy when interest rates start falling and households have spare cash again.

[Balance]

MFB…. Buy when interest rates start falling and households have spare cash again.

So wait until mid 2025. :scared:

Will MFB be still around by then? ;)

[Onemootpoint]

My Food Bag directors tell unhappy shareholders, 'we've suffered as much as you have'

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/132766384/my-food-bag-directors-tell-unhappy-shareholders-weve-suffered-as-much-as-you-have

[sideliner]

Quik question, at what stage is this company trading when not liquid , the intangible assets seems very very high

any comments??

[Balance]

Milford continuing to sell off their stake:

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MFB/416866/401051.pdf

Buy HIGH, sell LOW.

[Muse]

Milford continuing to sell off their stake:

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MFB/416866/401051.pdf

Buy HIGH, sell LOW, collect mgmt fee.

fixed that for you

[Walter]

fixed that for you

Their Dynamic fund has returned 12% per annum after fees for the last three years. How does that compare to your returns over that timeframe?

[silverblizzard888]

The irony will be them buying back in again once the business hit stable ground

[Balance]

The irony will be them buying back in again once the business hit stable ground

They wouldn’t buy back. The reason why they are selling out is to get rid of the embarrassment of MFB in their portfolios. That’s what fund managers do.

[bottomfeeder]

Their Dynamic fund has returned 12% per annum after fees for the last three years. How does that compare to your returns over that timeframe?
Don't you love the way they manipulate statistics. Three years ago was the big year where everyone made money on the market, provided they had available cash. The last year was the worst. They had to include three years or everyone would move their money.

[silverblizzard888]

They wouldn’t buy back. The reason why they are selling out is to get rid of the embarrassment of MFB in their portfolios. That’s what fund managers do.

Well not right away, but with the NZX you don't really have much to buy from, once MFB shows come consistency they will be forced to buy back in again.

[Balance]

Well not right away, but with the NZX you don't really have much to buy from, once MFB shows come consistency they will be forced to buy back in again.

And revisit their support of one of the biggest IPO disasters that any dumbo could ever invest in?

They should if there’s money to be made in the event of a turnaround but having dealt with fund managers a plenty before, I doubt so.

The thing that sticks in my mind is how the late Brian Gaynor, founder of Milford, actually warned against investing in MFB!!!! He had retired by then from Milford but he must have wondered what happened to the rigorous processes he put in place while it was under his leadership.

[silverblizzard888]

And revisit their support of one of the biggest IPO disasters that any dumbo could ever invest in?

They should if there’s money to be made in the event of a turnaround but having dealt with fund managers a plenty before, I doubt so.

The thing that sticks in my mind is how the late Brian Gaynor, founder of Milford, actually warned against investing in MFB!!!! He had retired by then from Milford but he must have wondered what happened to the rigorous processes he put in place while it was under his leadership.

Well a good investor never lets emotion cloud their judgment, but thats true too, hard to turn back that reputation if they loss money on it a second time round.

Gaynor was on the money when he questioned the IPO, Milford is where it is today because of his shrew investing, but like all ships once you change the captain the decisions are always going to be different. No different to Buffett leaving Berkshire, you might find the new guy investing into everything risky and high growth.

[sideliner]

Based on the recent Mainzeal ruling, how close to the wind are the directors with liquidity, as seems to me that the goodwill is quite highly valued ??? thoughts on this one

[Lego_Man]

Milford sold 5% of the company in a block trade for 18.5c on 21 August, but noone has posted a corresponding SSH notice on the other side since. I'm intrigued as to where the shares have ended up.

[Rawz]

MFB hit an all time low the other day. Current market cap $38m

Anyone see value here?

[SailorRob]

No different to Buffett leaving Berkshire, you might find the new guy investing into everything risky and high growth.


The most misinformed post I've seen in a long time.

Study this particular situation for 40 hours and report back.

[Balance]

Well a good investor never lets emotion cloud their judgment, but thats true too, hard to turn back that reputation if they loss money on it a second time round.

Gaynor was on the money when he questioned the IPO, Milford is where it is today because of his shrew investing, but like all ships once you change the captain the decisions are always going to be different. No different to Buffett leaving Berkshire, you might find the new guy investing into everything risky and high growth.

One of the investment golden rules that Gaynor followed religiously was never to invest in IPOs from Private Equity selldowns, especially when they sell down almost all of their shares. I actually still have an email from Gaynor to that effect.

It certainly looks like Milford has discarded some of the founding principles that Gaynor put in place in Milford to make it the great success manager that it had been.

Only an idiot or clueless incompetent fund manager would have invested in the MFB IPO.

[Rawz]

MFB hit an all time low the other day. Current market cap $38m

Anyone see value here?

Suppose best to wait until next month when the HY results will be released. see how many customers they have lost with the cost of living crisis..

[Sideshow Bob]

Suppose best to wait until next month when the HY results will be released. see how many customers they have lost with the cost of living crisis..

And also if/how much there margins have been squeeeeeeeezed with price increases/inflation.

[silverblizzard888]

One of the investment golden rules that Gaynor followed religiously was never to invest in IPOs from Private Equity selldowns, especially when they sell down almost all of their shares. I actually still have an email from Gaynor to that effect.

It certainly looks like Milford has discarded some of the founding principles that Gaynor put in place in Milford to make it the great success manager that it had been.

Only an idiot or clueless incompetent fund manager would have invested in the MFB IPO.

Private equity always dresses up the numbers before bringing it to IPO and they see the coming trends and if they are selling thats the biggest red flag possible. Have to ask why they would sell their shares if its so good. Founder lead company's coming on IPO are always nicer especially if theres no selling, theres genuine interest to continue building upon the business.

Its almost criminal that the share price has dropped so low and yet we still have to twiddle our thumbs and wonder if the business is still doing alright.

[ralph]

Private equity always dresses up the numbers before bringing it to IPO and they see the coming trends and if they are selling thats the biggest red flag possible. Have to ask why they would sell their shares if its so good. Founder lead company's coming on IPO are always nicer especially if theres no selling, theres genuine interest to continue building upon the business.

Its almost criminal that the share price has dropped so low and yet we still have to twiddle our thumbs and wonder if the business is still doing alright.

Totally agree the big boys whom Invested in this and are now selling out in such a hurry to hide their guilt in the I Po .
& everyone else is enjoying the feed they have so heavily discounted .

[Baa_Baa]

If you think MFB has a long and profitable future, with above bank rate returns to shareholders, then we might be at or close to a decent buy in price. The current share price though, suggests that no one thinks that, are they all right, or are they wrong?

[ralph]

If you think MFB has a long and profitable future, with above bank rate returns to shareholders, then we might be at or close to a decent buy in price. The current share price though, suggests that no one thinks that, are they all right, or are they wrong?
This is the million dollar question .
I do think the Instos are wrong in this mass sellout they have nearly completed & I know they will make it back elsewhere to hide their IPO COCK UP .
One thing is for sure their is no One way traffic in All share deals

[Nigelk]

I'm quietly optimistic about MFB. Their customer base is around 57K households out of the 1.8m in the country. I think there's a core of households that are affluent and time-poor, who like MFB and won't leave because of inflation/cost of living. On the expenses side, they've got the picking technology in place now (they wore the one-off costs last year), reduced staff numbers and the ASX listing. The SP has seen a floor at around .16. The big guys who were stupid enough to buy at the IPO have been selling down, with only a few brave individuals buying. With an EV of around $50M, if they can consolidate EBIT at $15M plus and pay down some debt, this will take off.

[Sideshow Bob]

This is the million dollar question .
I do think the Instos are wrong in this mass sellout they have nearly completed & I know they will make it back elsewhere to hide their IPO COCK UP .
One thing is for sure their is no One way traffic in All share deals

Harbour still selling.....down from 6.88 to 5.88% since the end of July.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MFB/419804/404935.pdf

[ralph]

Yes very Interesting Bob are they going to completely sell out eventually !
They certainly are not concerned about the losses incurred since the I P O and look to have an exit strategy of a certain amount per month driving the price down accordingly .

[Baa_Baa]

Yes very Interesting Bob are they going to completely sell out eventually !
They certainly are not concerned about the losses incurred since the I P O and look to have an exit strategy of a certain amount per month driving the price down accordingly .

These types aren't at all that concerned with a bad bet, in the scheme of things **** happens sometimes.

What they do is recycle whatever is left of their money into something that is a better bet. The only thing of real significance is the size of their bet which has gone wrong, and how aggressively they might exit that, and at what price/cost they're prepared to take, so they can put whatever is left over to better use elsewhere.

They have to be careful exiting as they have so much they can easily overwhelm the bid side of the market, and freak it out. That'd just drive down their exit price.

The only surprising thing is how long it took for this reaction, the SP has been decimated. They could have initiated an exit months ago and saved a lot of their customers money a lot earlier.

Above all of this is that an underwriter got caught short and is executing an exit strategy, to salvage whatever remains of their poor investment decision. Step back from the day to day minutiae and what you see happening is big money abandoning MFB. That says they aren't committed to MFB's long term, got it wrong underwriting, and are salvaging whatever they can from a bad situation.

They want nothing more to do with this and are voting with their money, however little remaining that is, compared to what they were/are committed to.

That's good investing, salvage what's left over, even if the decision to invest in the first place wasn't a good decision.

[ralph]

That's pretty much it ,underwriting failures wanting to get out and forget their monumental I P O ferk up.
Cutting off their nose at the same time but being that big and stupid with other people's money they will soon grow another nose for their many faces .

[Lego_Man]

That's pretty much it ,underwriting failures wanting to get out and forget their monumental I P O ferk up.
Cutting off their nose at the same time but being that big and stupid with other people's money they will soon grow another nose for their many faces .

Don't underestimate ego and embarrassment. When you've incurred such massive losses on a stock, you have bosses and committees hounding you and it's an ongoing festering sore point, there's a tendency to hit the eject button at any price as you know even a strong rebound won't be material to your total returns.

[Rawz]

It warms the cockles of my heart when the boys at the big end of town completely stuff up an investment. Then im not so hard on myself when i do it :p

[Balance]

Don't underestimate ego and embarrassment. When you've incurred such massive losses on a stock, you have bosses and committees hounding you and it's an ongoing festering sore point, there's a tendency to hit the eject button at any price as you know even a strong rebound won't be material to your total returns.

Bang on observation.

It's not their money in any case. They are only managing it to be within +/- 2% of the benchmark so they invest NOT to win but NOT to lose.

[winner69]

CFO didn’t last a year

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MFB/420334/405565.pdf

[nztx]

CFO didn’t last a year

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MFB/420334/405565.pdf


Must have been a difficult decision .. with the bright future this ship possesses for the future

Were any share options issued as part of the package for the brief assignment or are these only reserved for the squatters around the large round board room table ? :)


At least she had some holding in the outfit, which like others has gone back 33% in the period from March to date

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MFB/414088/397757.pdf


It's amazing the wide array of talent that this outfit has resident on the payroll .. are they all customers as well ? :)

[bottomfeeder]

Caught out by not cancelling my delivery from MFB. They advise that as monday is a PH, they will deliver on Sunday. Surprised me they got couriers to work on Sunday.

[silverblizzard888]

MFB has a new offering called The Butcher, selling packaged meat deals, good to see they are finally expanding their offerings, though took them a while to actually get to this point. Though pricing is the same as the supermarket, but the bonus is they are offering free bacon with the order and apparently from the reviews its pretty good quality.

[Sideshow Bob]

MFB has a new offering called The Butcher, selling packaged meat deals, good to see they are finally expanding their offerings, though took them a while to actually get to this point. Though pricing is the same as the supermarket, but the bonus is they are offering free bacon with the order and apparently from the reviews its pretty good quality.

Someone said 'Bacon' and also the word 'free'........:drool:

[nztx]

Here's something else that was Free from the Head Bacon:

19 May 2023:

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/411678


“We expect to see free cash flow strengthen over FY24 and to resume dividend payments in the coming year,” says Carter.

Any Revised "We are Flying" guidance issued since ?

Director jumped overboard since, CFO looking for more leisurely home lifestyle

Alas Friday close:

MFB
$0.140
-$0.010 / -6.67%


Draft Monthly & 6 Monthly Draft Accounts must be well out on the Board Table already by now ..

No screams, jumps for joy yet .. any leeks ?

Not many takers for the Revised NZX Menu so far ;)

Another 4 weeks to go for the six months first half 2024 Menu Report Card to be revealed
on whether MFB have managed to find the bacon for the badly knifed stakeholders

[nztx]

Up almost 7% today .. wonder if the Baconiser has been hard at work in the kitchen whipping up a new recipe :)

Someone must have scored a wiff of something ..


Time to be cooking up a real treat this time and not a Soupie disaster - Head Bacon ? :)

[Master98]

Jarden has slashed its target price by 44% to 25c a share, but has retained its buy rating.
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/markets/jarden-slashes-my-food-bag-target-price-by-44

[silverblizzard888]

Jarden has slashed its target price by 44% to 25c a share, but has retained its buy rating.
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/markets/jarden-slashes-my-food-bag-target-price-by-44


Even with the cut thats a 78% upside on fresh valuations.

[silverblizzard888]

Not that Supie was directly a competitor, but I'm sure there was probably some overlap in customers who might otherwise have considered the bargain box for fair priced grocery meals. One of the supplier revealed for Supie was Neat Meat who is also a supplier to MFB.

Supie had 60,000 users and apparently $14m in turnover a year, while MFB had 57,500 active customers spending on average $58 a week, so the boost in extra customers for MFB could be material.

[Rawz]

Not that Supie was directly a competitor, but I'm sure there was probably some overlap in customers who might otherwise have considered the bargain box for fair priced grocery meals. One of the supplier revealed for Supie was Neat Meat who is also a supplier to MFB.

Supie had 60,000 users and apparently $14m in turnover a year, while MFB had 57,500 active customers spending on average $58 a week, so the boost in extra customers for MFB could be material.

You buying MFB, Silver?

[silverblizzard888]

You buying MFB, Silver?

Yeah I've taken the opportunity to buy some at 14 cents. I'm thinking they will deliver $4-5m profit which at $33m Market Valuation seems like a reasonable deal. Its no 2CC, but theres meat on the bone. They've put a price freeze until the end of the year for their products so its a clear signal that cost are under control and I'm happy with their 'The Butcher' offering, could add some extra customers.

[ralph]

Yeah I've taken the opportunity to buy some at 14 cents. I'm thinking they will deliver $4-5m profit which at $33m Market Valuation seems like a reasonable deal. Its no 2CC, but theres meat on the bone. They've put a price freeze until the end of the year for their products so its a clear signal that cost are under control and I'm happy with their 'The Butcher' offering, could add some extra customers.
If they do make profit ,then that will be a very good s price silver blizzard .
Only 12 days to go for this one

[Rawz]

Hope you are right Silver.

I dont have the guts to buy into this one right now. Always said i would wait for half year to see if there is major customer slippage.

[Master98]

Jarden forecast FY24 net profit 5.68m, cash flow 10.2m. div around 2c per share.

[silverblizzard888]

If they do make profit ,then that will be a very good s price silver blizzard .
Only 12 days to go for this one

The management team has been quite active around their cost controls, which should mean a steady profit, but the big uncertainty is how much. Indeed we will find out in less than 2 weeks time.


Hope you are right Silver.

I dont have the guts to buy into this one right now. Always said i would wait for half year to see if there is major customer slippage.

Always stay with what you've planned. Investing is always about good discipline. My rationale is more is based on my estimates and the low share price.



Jarden forecast FY24 net profit 5.68m, cash flow 10.2m. div around 2c per share.

If they deliver that profit, I'd be pretty over the moon.

[nztx]

The management team has been quite active around their cost controls, which should mean a steady profit, but the big uncertainty is how much. Indeed we will find out in less than 2 weeks time.



Always stay with what you've planned. Investing is always about good discipline. My rationale is more is based on my estimates and the low share price.




If they deliver that profit, I'd be pretty over the moon.



They might decide to wait a few moons to spit out a further dividend .. with choppy economic times ahead ..

[Lola]

They might decide to wait a few moons to spit out a further dividend .. with choppy economic times ahead ..
MFB now 13.5c
It really is a top class toilet paper manufacturer. They touch a new bottom nearly everyday.

[nztx]

MFB now 13.5c
It really is a top class toilet paper manufacturer. They touch a new bottom nearly everyday.



Sounds like they touched yours .. the big question is will they revisit with future sniff of some sort of dividend wipe or pull off a wipe out :)

[silverblizzard888]

Its a falling knife till we have half year results. Add in the selling pressure from instos we are at max pessimism.

[nztx]

How's the TV Advertising now ? .. Full on or just the occasional here and there, before going off air again ...

[carrom74]

14.9c up 13% today.… ANZ bought a good chunk as per the notice yesterday. Another two weeks to the results.

[nztx]

14.9c up 13% today.… ANZ bought a good chunk as per the notice yesterday. Another two weeks to the results.



The Bank liked PEB too .. :)


probably a nice large pile of Red to recover out of the earlier forays

[blackcap]

The Bank liked PEB too .. :)


probably a nice large pile of Red to recover out of the earlier forays

I came to the conclusion last night that I think MFB is going under. Balance sheet is not sustainable. Revenues are going down, costs up, means no profit. Market is saturated and they will be losing market share to competitors.

Cash raise coming up in .....

[ralph]

I came to the conclusion last night that I think MFB is going under. Balance sheet is not sustainable. Revenues are going down, costs up, means no profit. Market is saturated and they will be losing market share to competitors.

Cash raise coming up in .....
Huum Ah well Interesting Thanks for sharing not long till we find out if they are profitable and if we have to add it to the many other companies whom have been forecast to need a cash raise .

[winner69]

Beauden and Hannah Barrett had their Christmas Dinner before he went to Japan

Loved it …great value they said

After all it was free.

[nztx]

I came to the conclusion last night that I think MFB is going under. Balance sheet is not sustainable. Revenues are going down, costs up, means no profit. Market is saturated and they will be losing market share to competitors.

Cash raise coming up in .....


Possible .. and a Customer base likely seeing some becoming increasing financially stressed in the current economic times ..

Any CR incoming will be offset by Intangibles impairment at some stage ..

Any guesses on possible price between 1c & 10c to pull off replacing the coin in the pot ?

At some point Lenders may take a closer look at what lurks under, past the pile of intangibles
if Auditors dont beat them to it ..

a while back Reports showed a rather lofty facility ceiling .. anything drawn will be incurring
an appropriate usury price .. and subject to reviews


Guess that means even if any new recipe was a little ripper, borrowing to shell out a divie might
be off the table

[bulltrap]

14.9c up 13% today.… ANZ bought a good chunk as per the notice yesterday. Another two weeks to the results.

Did I miss something? Which notice was that?

[carrom74]

Well.. Jarden had a TP of 25c with a “buy” rating and an expectation of a dividend in FY25… They also hold about 7M shares - if I am correct…

[ralph]

Beauden and Hannah Barrett had their Christmas Dinner before he went to Japan

Loved it …great value they said

After all it was free.

Oh gee A B endorsement gotta mean something, Big in Japan

[carrom74]

Sorry bulltrap- Got PEB mixed up with MFB.

[blackcap]

Possible .. and a Customer base likely seeing some becoming increasing financially stressed in the current economic times ..

Any CR incoming will be offset by Intangibles impairment at some stage ..

Any guesses on possible price between 1c & 10c to pull off replacing the coin in the pot ?

At some point Lenders may take a closer look at what lurks under, past the pile of intangibles
if Auditors dont beat them to it ..

a while back Reports showed a rather lofty facility ceiling .. anything drawn will be incurring
an appropriate usury price .. and subject to reviews


Guess that means even if any new recipe was a little ripper, borrowing to shell out a divie might
be off the table

I was being kind. The market they cater to is the market that is facing the interest rate pressures.

Their NTA was negative at last FY. They have no real assets, only the intangibles. The debt burden could become a large liability.

Hinging on a knife's edge.

Also I am not sure if the "bargain Box" idea is a good one. You had a point of difference with a superior product.

Look I could well be very wrong, but it is not something I would be comfortable investing in at the moment.

[bulltrap]

Sorry bulltrap- Got PEB mixed up with MFB.

No worries, seems like instos have been dumping rather than buying, hence my surprise.

But given this now seems cheap, by whichever measure you'd like to throw at it (gloomy speculation aside), surely someone is getting interested in taking a stake.

Given recent trading in 13c-15c range, a buyout at 22c/share - approx $50M total - might see good support from holders, let alone 'bag-holding' instos who seem to want out at any price.

It's in HelloFresh's playbook to buy out competitors for market share, as per their Youfoodz acquisition (https://www.businessnewsaustralia.com/articles/youfoodz-owners-cut-their-losses--agree-to-hellofresh-buyout.html) in Aus. That was at an 82% premium (to mid-2021 share prices!), and around 0.6x annual revenue (https://themarketherald.com.au/youfoodz-asxyfz-tables-revenue-growth-in-fy21-2021-08-24/). MFB at $50M would be a 50% premium today and closer to 0.3x revenue.

Also a great opportunity for a supermarket player to grab an extra slice of the app-and-delivery market.

Disc: Bravely holding, as a value play

[carrom74]

No worries, seems like instos have been dumping rather than buying, hence my surprise.

But given this now seems cheap, by whichever measure you'd like to throw at it (gloomy speculation aside), surely someone is getting interested in taking a stake.

Given recent trading in 13c-15c range, a buyout at 22c/share - approx $50M total - might see good support from holders, let alone 'bag-holding' instos who seem to want out at any price.

It's in HelloFresh's playbook to buy out competitors for market share, as per their Youfoodz acquisition (https://www.businessnewsaustralia.com/articles/youfoodz-owners-cut-their-losses--agree-to-hellofresh-buyout.html) in Aus. That was at an 82% premium (to mid-2021 share prices!), and around 0.6x annual revenue (https://themarketherald.com.au/youfoodz-asxyfz-tables-revenue-growth-in-fy21-2021-08-24/). MFB at $50M would be a 50% premium today and closer to 0.3x revenue.

Also a great opportunity for a supermarket player to grab an extra slice of the app-and-delivery market.

Disc: Bravely holding, as a value play

Thanks for the links.

Of late(atleast for the last two weeks), the average volume has increased(albeit with instos desperately seeking to get out),I am getting a sense that it cannot just be retail investors going for a punt.

Point to be noted in the Jarden report is that MFB is probably eating into the HF's market as HF's customers have loads of complaints sent to the commerce commission.All the more reason for HF to buyout!.

I am holding and recently topped at 13.5c...

[ralph]

I was being kind. The market they cater to is the market that is facing the interest rate pressures.

Their NTA was negative at last FY. They have no real assets, only the intangibles. The debt burden could become a large liability.

Hinging on a knife's edge.

Also I am not sure if the "bargain Box" idea is a good one. You had a point of difference with a superior product.

Look I could well be very wrong, but it is not something I would be comfortable investing in at the moment.

fair enough blackcap yore putting it out there I admire that .
But tangible assets aint the big deal they used to be imho profits are more Important in this bear market rather than unrealizable assets.
Even property is not the asset it used to be look at all the floundering reits with huge debts growing bigger than the assets .
Hey I am not saying M F B is going to be profitable but I will wait another week to find out & then ! it may be a Bargain box for someone

[Rawz]

Some will be right.. some will be wrong…Each post I read I agree, for and against lol.

Too tough to call for me and not enough certainty or balance sheet strength to have a punt. If I have a punt like with BRW there needs to be lots and lots of cash on the balance sheet

[Sideshow Bob]

No worries, seems like instos have been dumping rather than buying, hence my surprise.

But given this now seems cheap, by whichever measure you'd like to throw at it (gloomy speculation aside), surely someone is getting interested in taking a stake.

Given recent trading in 13c-15c range, a buyout at 22c/share - approx $50M total - might see good support from holders, let alone 'bag-holding' instos who seem to want out at any price.

It's in HelloFresh's playbook to buy out competitors for market share, as per their Youfoodz acquisition (https://www.businessnewsaustralia.com/articles/youfoodz-owners-cut-their-losses--agree-to-hellofresh-buyout.html) in Aus. That was at an 82% premium (to mid-2021 share prices!), and around 0.6x annual revenue (https://themarketherald.com.au/youfoodz-asxyfz-tables-revenue-growth-in-fy21-2021-08-24/). MFB at $50M would be a 50% premium today and closer to 0.3x revenue.

Also a great opportunity for a supermarket player to grab an extra slice of the app-and-delivery market.

Disc: Bravely holding, as a value play

Harbour selling down another 0.8% in the last month. Now almost under the 5%.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MFB/421460/406918.pdf

[bulltrap]

Harbour selling down another 0.8% in the last month. Now almost under the 5%.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MFB/421460/406918.pdf

That directly accounts for half the overall trading volume for the month. One-way traffic indeed.

And they have enough for six months more selling at this pace.

If I understand roughly what they're up to, it's buy high, sell low, with other people's money. And by that I mean, not mine.

[carrom74]

That directly accounts for half the overall trading volume for the month. One-way traffic indeed.

And they have enough for six months more selling at this pace.

If I understand roughly what they're up to, it's buy high, sell low, with other people's money. And by that I mean, not mine.

And the irony is that Jarden has a TP of 25c and are selling them at throwaway prices.. the left hand doesn’t agree with the right eh?