MFB - My Food Bag

[winner69]

That Youfoodz takeover is buying $200m revenues for $125m

MFB revenues about $200m …if HelloFresh or somebody else valued things the same way MFB shares are worth 52 cents

Didn’t somebody on here mention 50 cents a while ago

But youfoodz is a real dog.

[winner69]

Bit about Youfoodz

https://www.businessnewsaustralia.com/articles/youfoodz-owners-cut-their-losses--agree-to-hellofresh-buyout.html

Extract . Hellofresh CEO Dominik Richter highlights good opportunities to strengthen the group's position in the growing, ready-to-eat services sector in Australia.

In NZ probably all they have to do is out promote and take chunks of share from My Food Bag to win ….Nadia can’t continue to perform miracles

[nztx]

-IPO funds used to pay off loan to majority shareholder RGT Capital

-$62.6 million loss from indicated value in prospectus


https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif


Sounds like the Aussie minority & retail holders are looking to be done over

like an overcooked Dinner .. ;)

bet they're spewing in to their bags over that .. ;)

probably does wonderful things for the brand & company swallowing it up too .. ;)


nothing like some 'under the bag bowling' to wake up the snoozing retail punters .. ;)

[Sideshow Bob]

I just had to check whether on the MFB or SKT thread there for a minute.....

[winner69]

Chief Operations man resigned

Mr Wafer is known as ‘Ragu’

[Getty]

Chief Operations man resigned

Mr Wafer is known as ‘Ragu’

Mamma Mia, doe'sa thata mean he's pasta it, or hasa he become minca meat?

[bottomfeeder]

Got my second delivery of MFB Made meals. Had to get it because I was one short on last delivery and rather than refund, credited against next purchase. Now this is how they are going to make more profit. Only thing is it will lose them customers. Ordered two of the butter chicken. Now dear enough, and picture on the app shows a full tray. When they arrived it was a split tray, one half was butter chicken, the other half had carrots and pumpkin. Was quite annoyed. We are cancelling future orders.

[Snow Leopard]

Chief Operations man resigned

Mr Wafer is known as ‘Ragu’

They call this Ragu?
https://mecconebaking.com/Content/main/images/p02.jpg

Glad I don't order from them.
Or have shares in them.

[percy]

Just checking to see whether ST is working.

[percy]

Just checking to see whether ST is working.

[fungus pudding]

Just checking to see whether ST is working.

It occasionally does, if you wait long enough.
Sometimes it even works twice.
What more could you want?

[nztx]

Have we found the bottom of the Bag with this one yet ? ;)

or maybe just having a little rest @ around 132 crumbs .. ?

[Balance]

$1.25 - hope no one is holding and watching the sp makes new low week by week.

[nztx]

a slight bounce up off the low - but have we seen the bottom of the bag yet ? ;)

[Meh]

Which brave souls have the buy order on this share! Clearly by the state of the buy column in the depth tab, it is limited to the ones with big nads.

[stoploss]

If you wanted a hedge against the Covid Delta strain ( which a lot of people believe is only a matter of time ) This would be a good way to go …..

[nztx]

If you wanted a hedge against the Covid Delta strain ( which a lot of people believe is only a matter of time ) This would be a good way to go …..


Having examined many other bags to see if they have a hint of gold buried in the linings, I prefer SKL for it's Covid resistant tendencies ;)

[Golfer01]

Disc - don't hold but my 10 cents worth. We've been getting the vegan box for 7 months now (decided to try going vegan) and very happy with the recipes as the meals are very tasty. We go for the 4 meals, 4 people which cost $180 so effectively $10 per head per meal. This is on the steep side but it makes it much easier to produce tasty vegan meals without putting too much thought into what we're going to have for dinner, trolling websites for recipes and getting a multitude of ingredients each week. What I have noticed in recent times is the increasing feeling that the value for money has diminished byway of less product, cheaper ingredients and meal size and I can't help but think they are doing this to drive higher margins when in fact they should be continually trying to improve on their offering in order to retain/increase their client base. Unfortunately at this point MFG are the only supplier of a vegan box, Hello Fresh and Woop don't have plans to get into vegan options (I've asked) so we'll stick with MFG in the short term but if there is a continued view that the value for money isn't where it needs to be then we'll stop ordering and fend for ourselves. I've told them that..

[bottomfeeder]

Disc - don't hold but my 10 cents worth. We've been getting the vegan box for 7 months now (decided to try going vegan) and very happy with the recipes as the meals are very tasty. We go for the 4 meals, 4 people which cost $180 so effectively $10 per head per meal. This is on the steep side but it makes it much easier to produce tasty vegan meals without putting too much thought into what we're going to have for dinner, trolling websites for recipes and getting a multitude of ingredients each week. What I have noticed in recent times is the increasing feeling that the value for money has diminished byway of less product, cheaper ingredients and meal size and I can't help but think they are doing this to drive higher margins when in fact they should be continually trying to improve on their offering in order to retain/increase their client base. Unfortunately at this point MFG are the only supplier of a vegan box, Hello Fresh and Woop don't have plans to get into vegan options (I've asked) so we'll stick with MFG in the short term but if there is a continued view that the value for money isn't where it needs to be then we'll stop ordering and fend for ourselves. I've told them that..

Had the same feeling with the made meals. The pictures on the website show a full plate of the particular meal. But when you get it, it's a split tray (on some meals only), with vegetables being the fill. So they are trying to reduce costs, and quality does suffer.

[Rawz]

I agree with previous two posts.

If MFB or Hello Fresh or whoever is going to serve the same slop we can make at home ourselves, they will never grow their customer base.

Tough balancing act but growing margins by lower quality food or less food cant be the long term success story. Need to procure it cheaper (sorry growers), get more economies of scale going or gain margin from the supply chain (assuming some is still available).

[Golfer01]

I agree with previous two posts.

If MFB or Hello Fresh or whoever is going to serve the same slop we can make at home ourselves, they will never grow their customer base.

Tough balancing act but growing margins by lower quality food or less food cant be the long term success story. Need to procure it cheaper (sorry growers), get more economies of scale going or gain margin from the supply chain (assuming some is still available).

I'm pretty sure there is little more able to be taken out of the supply chain. Suppliers are drilled hard on pricing, coal face labour is school kids or casuals from employment agencies (minimum wages) and the courier companies would be getting only a small recovery. Profit has to come from growth, not sacrificing quality and value for the premium price. I've got an idea! They should establish mini stores (dairies) located in dozens of areas stocking the products which make the meals of the week. Whereby customers don't have to pre-order several meals at any one time a week in advance and if they get caught short they can go to the mini mart and purchase the products to make a meal for that day. Needs a bit more work but I'll work on a business plan and sell it to MFB.:t_up:

[nztx]

Another Lock-down & would you guess it -- nothing like someone kicking the FoodBag 4 notches higher .. ;)

Oh yes and HMY up to similar tricks .. ;)

[winner69]

ASM - all on target to meet F22 expectations

And Chairman Tony says hang in there

We are very mindful of the performance of our share price over our first six months which has been below what it has listed for. However, we would like to acknowledge those who participated in the IPO and have stuck with us and continue to recognise the value in this business. We assure you that the board and management remain focussed on executing on the business strategy and the performance of the business. In the long run, we are confident that the market will judge the business against its performance and potential.
And on both counts, our Board remains firmly confident.

[Ggcc]

ASM - all on target to meet F22 expectations

And Chairman Tony says hang in there

We are very mindful of the performance of our share price over our first six months which has been below what it has listed for. However, we would like to acknowledge those who participated in the IPO and have stuck with us and continue to recognise the value in this business. We assure you that the board and management remain focussed on executing on the business strategy and the performance of the business. In the long run, we are confident that the market will judge the business against its performance and potential.
And on both counts, our Board remains firmly confident.
Could one consider these sorts of quotes to be living in a dream on current fundamentals??

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/my-food-bag-gets-grilling-from-shareholders-at-first-agm-since-listing/SYC4FN6KOE3QMY3E3OSQQIXADA/ Paywalled.
Shareholders not happy and understandable too as their capital has been scorched.

[winner69]

In BusinessDesk Mark Lister said

“I’m always unimpressed by CEOs who comment on whether the share price is too high or too low,” he said. “Just get on with running the business and let investors focus on the share price”.

[basilcat]

In 2016 the business was valued at $51M.

In 2021 the IPO valued it at $448.5M.

The compound rate of growth to achieve this was approx. 54% per annum.

Clearly we were invited to invest in a high risk, high growth, tech or pharma stock - not.

I was offered this IPO did the calculation as above and ran a mile.

You got the risk but were never going to get the growth.

If you see certain companies running an IPO you know to look twice and then again; and even if you tempted still run.

The promoters of this rort are either incompetent or should be sanctioned for deliberate deception.

if an annual growth rate of 20% (very generous) from 2016 is assumed the IPO was worth about $0.50 per share.

[nztx]

In 2016 the business was valued at $51M.

In 2021 the IPO valued it at $448.5M.

The compound rate of growth to achieve this was approx. 54% per annum.

Clearly we were invited to invest in a high risk, high growth, tech or pharma stock - not.

I was offered this IPO did the calculation as above and ran a mile.

You got the risk but were never going to get the growth.

If you see certain companies running an IPO you know to look twice and then again; and even if you tempted still run.

The promoters of this rort are either incompetent or should be sanctioned for deliberate deception.



it goes further than that - how much of the perceived ramp up in value was sucked out by the previous
stakeholders selling down ?

look at dividends paid over the term.
selling one company to another holding company (with upgraded perceived value upgraded)
and the ultimate sell down via IPO to Joe Public


Joe Public, if you like (if they partook) got to conveniently replace the value sucked out by those departing
& selling down

Who was the primary large beneficiary of the final ultimate sale of the most of the former holders shares ?

Wasn't Gattung's retirement fund also another beneficiary of the 'extract value' exercise and ultimate sale to
Joe Public via IPO ? ;)


What would a similar business be fairly valued at now ? ;)

Are there any similar - for example either privately owned or in OZ ?

[X-men]

Would buy MFB at$.070

The advisers that promoted MFB were greedy....

[nztx]

Would buy MFB at$.070

The advisers that promoted MFB were greedy....


Call it hyped up like many other IPO's of recent, on a wish & a dream of insto's and any number of other smart money
experts in their prim pinstripes with possibly a whole book full of other motives tucked under their arms

probably by the same lot of participants who managed to score good quantities at rates below IPO price
a fat underwriting, advisory or other commission take-off from the target being positioned for blast off ..


the ones at the bottom of the IPO pile - Joe & Josephine Retail Investor, as things play out in these situations
get to stump up an arm & three legs for a modest (usually well watered down) small holding after
the hype has been well spun, the exiting participants have scored their grand windfall and what's left
of the enterprise they started out has been milked of any available revaluations upwards, made to look
pretty & then set adrift on NZX on any sort of glorified pie in the sky future well qualified conditional projections .. ;)

[Muse]

. .

[Shareguy]

Forsyth bar ceasing coverage from today. Another nail in the coffin.

[Muse]

Are they really? Oh dear. Bad look.

[Balance]

Forsyth bar ceasing coverage from today. Another nail in the coffin.

Despicable conduct to be expected from Forbar (catch flies with honey) - made their money by shoving clients and investors into yet another dud IPO (Wynyard, Feltex, CBL, Credit Sails, etc etc etc) and now, running from the scene of the crime.

[Muse]

I've never regarded Forbar particularly highly as investment banks go. I do like Jarden and Craigs research but with all the usual caveats - more just interesting reading the commentary rather than focusing on the TPs or forecasts. Jarden pushed the primary lead manager on MTB they seem to have lost their way a bit with the harmony and orion IPOs.

[winner69]

New all time low.

MJ-popcorn.gif

Punters thinking lockdowns ending so MFB demand drops

Chair and management better step up and buy before it drops to a buck

[Getty]

$1.23.

No worries, Jacinda will hatch a plan to have a MFB meal delivered to anyone that wants one, to bypass mucking around with the foodbanks.

[nztx]

$1.23.

No worries, Jacinda will hatch a plan to have a MFB meal delivered to anyone that wants one, to bypass mucking around with the foodbanks.


Hope she waits until after we see the buck .. ;)

[Getty]

Yeah, well we all know where the buck is going to stop.

[Getty]

Looks like someone hit the panic button, or did they get a fly in their soup, or is there a falling knife in the kitchen?

$1.20, -5.5% so far today, on $514K t/o

[winner69]

A 120 close

Media reports that most analysts still value it above 180

[Balance]

Looks like someone hit the panic button, or did they get a fly in their soup, or is there a falling knife in the kitchen?

$1.20, -5.5% so far today, on $514K t/o

Name change coming for MFB to MPB - My Puke Bag.

NZX should hang it’s head in shame - its one IPO for 2021 and it cannot even get it right.

[Muse]

Name change coming for MFB to MPB - My Puke Bag.

NZX should hang it’s head in shame - its one IPO for 2021 and it cannot even get it right.

My puke bag lol

[Lola]

Name change coming for MFB to MPB - My Puke Bag.

NZX should hang it’s head in shame - its one IPO for 2021 and it cannot even get it right.

Forget the NZX. This is a job for the FMA right now.

[bottomfeeder]

'MADE' price increase by a buck a tray. About 7% . Will likely see some reduction in demand.

[Balance]

Forget the NZX. This is a job for the FMA right now.

Forget about the FMA as well. Took no action whatsoever with the ‘wink wink nudge nudge’ we will beat the forecast profit comment from the CEO during the IPO. ASIC would have pulled the IPO in the interim or issued a warning & fine.

Prospectus is filled with disclaimers & qualifications so chances of taking MPB (My Puke Bag) to task will be a waste of time.

[Muse]

Forget the NZX. This is a job for the FMA right now.

On what basis - for a falling share price / an overpriced float? So far (operative words!) prospectus forecasts have been met and no downgrades.

I dont think its useful or appropriate to imply the fma should get involved as its a substantial accusation you are making.

[mikeybycrikey]

On what basis - for a falling share price / an overpriced float? So far (operative words!) prospectus forecasts have been met and no downgrades.

I dont think its useful or appropriate to imply the fma should get involved as its a substantial accusation you are making.

i think you’re right. They did over-price their offer and heavily market it to their naive customers, but beyond that what have they actually done? I’m aware it could still go downhill further from here but still…

[Balance]

The stags who gathered were all slaughtered and rendered into venison.

Stags were efficiently and superbly gathered and shot by Jarden, Craig & Forbar with prime cuts reserved for the principals and unit holders of Waterman.

If I may write so, writing was on the wall post IPO & listing.

[ratkin]

If I may write so, writing was on the wall post IPO & listing.

Surely anyone with had least half a brain would have stayed well clear of the float, it was well telegraphed that is was grossly overpriced.

[nztx]

A 120 close

Media reports that most analysts still value it above 180

I wonder what they're smoking to see that value through the fumes ;)

[Beagle]

Surely anyone with had least half a brain would have stayed well clear of the float, it was well telegraphed that is was grossly overpriced.

But the friendly promotors told customers to "dig in" and gorge themselves like it was a free feed, (or words to a similar effect), and many of these naïve customers wouldn't understand the metrics and have simply looked at the pretty pictures and liked the name and believed in the product and the rest as they say is history.

[Muse]

I wonder what they're smoking to see that value through the fumes ;)

Their paychecks would be burnt if they didnt reconfirm their tp’s me thinks

[winner69]

The market will remember Waterman next time they float something ….come to think of it they prob thinknWaterman good guys

[nztx]

The market will remember Waterman next time they float something ….come to think of it they prob thinknWaterman good guys


Probably the 'Go To' mob to go to if you want to float a Biz - you reckon ? ;)

[Muse]

Probably the 'Go To' mob to go to if you want to float a Biz - you reckon ? ;)

The instos aren’t particularly fond of them at the moment after they got put over a barrel. Plus depends on the asset so maybe in a few years after MFB forgotten or comes right (could happen).

[Beagle]

Partners Life are always harping on about an IPO but there is always some industry issue holding them back. If asked to invest into that Id rather chunder in my mouth and swallow than write out a cheque.

:lol: :lol: You can't write cheques any more so that only leaves one other option :)

[Muse]

:lol: :lol: You can't write cheques any more so that only leaves one other option :)

Yeah. And a mouthful of would still leave less aftertaste.

[artemis]

A mildly contrary view. Maiden dividend mentioned for December. New and big Christchurch distribution centre on the way. Small recent price rises. Online shopping spiking due to, you know, and some new customers will stick.

May be a buying opportunity. Or not.

[Balance]

A mildly contrary view. Maiden dividend mentioned for December. New and big Christchurch distribution centre on the way. Small recent price rises. Online shopping spiking due to, you know, and some new customers will stick.

May be a buying opportunity. Or not.

It is or it isn't.

[Muse]

A mildly contrary view. Maiden dividend mentioned for December. New and big Christchurch distribution centre on the way. Small recent price rises. Online shopping spiking due to, you know, and some new customers will stick.

May be a buying opportunity. Or not.

Aye I think it could be. I bought a small parcel recently.

Personally I think if something goes amiss it will be on margins & costs. I think they will hit their revenue targets. But DYOR.

[stoploss]

The instos aren’t particularly fond of them at the moment after they got put over a barrel. Plus depends on the asset so maybe in a few years after MFB forgotten or comes right (could happen). They have provincial education (not a goer), PBT Freight (maybe), Canopy Healthcare (radiology is hot but sector struggling a bit), NZ Clinical Research (probably the best shot at an ipo in a few years), Fusion 5 (not a chance). Also in an old fund have a small stake in Healthcare holdings which is solid but will never list with dominant long term other shareholders, and final Partners Life who they invested with Maui Capital and Blackstone. Partners Life are always harping on about an IPO but there is always some industry issue holding them back. If asked to invest into that Id rather chunder in my mouth and swallow than write out a cheque.

They don't necessarily need to float they sold ,ACG & Manuka Health to private equity ,plus trade sales of Express logistics and Healthlink.

[Muse]

They don't necessarily need to float they sold ,ACG & Manuka Health to private equity ,plus trade sales of Express logistics and Healthlink.

Yup you are right there.

[winner69]

No need to panic .... all on track

Good buy today

The Board is in the position to reaffirm its FY22 revenue and earnings forecast, as outlined in the PFI
provided to investors in connection with the IPO. The Board also reconfirms that it intends to declare an
interim dividend to be paid in December.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MFB/380992/356974.pdf

[Balance]

No need to panic .... all on track

Good buy today

The Board is in the position to reaffirm its FY22 revenue and earnings forecast, as outlined in the PFI
provided to investors in connection with the IPO. The Board also reconfirms that it intends to declare an
interim dividend to be paid in December.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MFB/380992/356974.pdf

May give the sp a lift, to be sold down again later in the month when the lack of sex appeal wears down the stock again.

Maybe the directors & management could show their commitment by buying heaps of shares? Like lots & lots since it must be so very cheap compared to the $1.85 they helped to convince Mum & Dad investors to load up 6 months ago?

[Shareguy]

Looks positive but “caveat emptor” Thay say

In addition to those costs directly attributable to operating safely during higher Alert Levels, we have experienced inflationary pressure in recent months, particularly in ingredients and labour costs. We have sought to mitigate the impact of these higher costs through a price increase on selected Bags in early October.

My read is they won’t no for some time if the price increases have been successful without reducing demand..

[Beagle]

May give the sp a lift, to be sold down again later in the month when the lack of sex appeal wears down the stock again.

Maybe the directors & management could show their commitment by buying heaps of shares? Like lots & lots since it must be so very cheap compared to the $1.85 they helped to convince Mum & Dad investors to load up 6 months ago?

Exactly...talk is cheap !!!!

[Balance]

Exactly...talk is cheap !!!!

In this case, one suspects that there are quite a few punters who would like to return their shares & meals and get the directors and management to eat their IPO words.

[Muse]

Reading a new analyst report from Jarden this morning. Have reconfirmed their 1.80 TP and a few comments about how it is slightly ahead of their 1H revenue forecast. FY22E gross yield of 7%, net yield 5%, and FY23E net yield of 5.6%.

One item that sticks out is the 5% net yield. 5% is a magic number from JLM/retail/shareholder perspective as ultimately floats in the last year have all gravitated towards yield with all other implied valuation metrics a distant or forgotten consideration. Where the float went wrong (from my perspective) is the JLMs all fixated on the 5% yield but the WRONG yield - they thought 5% gross and 3.5% net was what the market was after when in fact what the market demanded was a 5% net yield. I think MFB is fairly price now at that metric.

[Ferg]

Do we know if MFB are delivering on their planned variable cost savings per the IPO? Or is that ancient history?

[Getty]

All the stagged stags will be deerly missing their free lunch of venison stew in hind sight.

[Muse]

Do we know if MFB are delivering on their planned variable cost savings per the IPO? Or is that ancient history?

That’s the big question! Officially (per the company) all is on track to the prospectus forecast. But we still have a second half to go in unusual times.

I see Craigs just downgraded from 1.85 to 1.68 (12 month target price) with a spot valuation of 1.59. Current year forecast broadly unchanged but longer term (FY23 & FY24) they have EBITDA flat lining at around 35 & 35.7 (vs FY22E of 34).

A decent cash yield at 1.20. About where i got it. Dont see it going up too fast anytime soon.

[winner69]

Sometimes NZ Herald does some cool graphics …like this today

Easy to see where this is heading

[Balance]

Sometimes NZ Herald does some cool graphics …like this today

Easy to see where this is heading

Still got your short position going, W69? You picked it well past the IPO listing.

Absolute disgrace by one of the co-lead managers, Forbar, to stop covering the stock to distance themselves from this puking dog of an IPO.

[Balance]

Sometimes NZ Herald does some cool graphics …like this today

Easy to see where this is heading

New low - $1.19

What is the company going to do to try & boost the sp now?

Another update?

[winner69]

New low - $1.19

What is the company going to do to try & boost the sp now?

Another update?

Even insider buying doesn’t help eh

Tony’s last attempt to stop the ship sinking was at 136

Always buy when the Chair buys

[Balance]

Even insider buying doesn’t help eh

Tony’s last attempt to stop the ship sinking was at 136

Always buy when the Chair buys

Might need Nadia to conjure up a special dish with exceptional ingredients which will ‘prompt’ buying interest in the shares?

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Might need Nadia to conjure up a special dish with exceptional ingredients which will ‘prompt’ buying interest in the shares?

I hear she does a mean brunch https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_fqg4zal230

[nztx]

Might need Nadia to conjure up a special dish with exceptional ingredients which will ‘prompt’ buying interest in the shares?

Free Shares hidden in each paper bag might do the trick ;)

until the boys & girls start realising they can be sold off as fast as they arrive :)

[Not too Flash]

Somebody got hungry at close today ....

[Balance]

Somebody got hungry at close today ....

And somebody got filled and full rather quickly!

Sp back down to another low at $1.18.

Market thinks MFB is going to be one of the stocks to suffer from inflationary pressures.

[Onion]

Might need Nadia to conjure up a special dish with exceptional ingredients which will ‘prompt’ buying interest in the shares?

Nadia isn’t a significant shareholder any more is she? As long as they can pay for her marketing contribution what does she care about the share price?

[Balance]

Nadia isn’t a significant shareholder any more is she? As long as they can pay for her marketing contribution what does she care about the share price?

Reputation - she is associated with MFB’s success or lack thereof. In fact, she is the face of MFB with all the others smartly distancing themselves with the loot taken from the naive Mum & Pop investors.

[Balance]

Reputation - she is associated with MFB’s success or lack thereof. In fact, she is the face of MFB with all the others smartly distancing themselves with the loot taken from the naive Mum & Pop investors.

https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2111/S00059/my-food-bag-coo-joins-trade-me-backed-startup.htm

Here’s one (ex COO) who took his money & ran. Now helping to set up another entity which no doubt will be sold to Mom & Dad mugs in due course?

I really genuinely feel sorry for Nadia - hope she is getting paid well to be associated with MFB.

[Shareguy]

Anyone who considers investing in this company should have a look at Marley Spoon on the asx, who do the same thing. Was a market darling and now A$.90 and down 14 percent after result. States that customers are not ordering as much as lock downs ends.

[nztx]

Still haven't cracked the magic buck level yet .. may have to sit back & play elsewhere for a bit longer :)


still be looking for the next curious announcement that bashes MFB under the 120 bits on the plate ;)

[Goob]

@Shareguy Check out Blue Apron in the USA for an even better example. Was a ~$2b company at IPO a few years ago now barely a going concern.

For anyone following MFB I've just posted a deep dive write up (linked below). It includes some info about the fall of Blue Apron and some of the parallels I see to MFB's situation. The biggest risk being it'll be mighty hard to keep these 15%+ EBITDA margins long term

https://fundamentalgoob.com/2021/10/19/nzxmfb-my-food-bag-bright-future-or-a-sinking-ship/

[Shareguy]

Goob just read your article. Fantastic. Well researched with great balanced information. You have summed it up well in my opinion. I think they will report forecast this half year but that’s it. Increased costs and a good chance that demand will decrease with lockdowns ending and the food bag will be the first to go if the economy goes into recession. All holders should read your article.

[nztx]

Goob just read your article. Fantastic. Well researched with great balanced information. You have summed it up well in my opinion. I think they will report forecast this half year but that’s it. Increased costs and a good chance that demand will decrease with lockdowns ending and the food bag will be the first to go if the economy goes into recession. All holders should read your article.

Weren't MFB supposed to be optomising things so costs were controlled ? ;)

Wasn't that the guts of Bacon's spiel not so long ago ? ;)

[artemis]

Might have mentioned this before, but a young couple in the family are MFB regulars. Under 25, both working. They reckon cost is similar to what they were spending on UberEats etc, better quality, much healthier, plenty of variety and no waste. There is cooking involved of course, but they usually choose a couple of the ready-in-15-minute options for time poor days.

MFB has now expanded its range to cover a lot of add ons - pantry items, ready made meals, baking mixes, artisan products. They would be good for profit margins as fixed costs already covered and they can increase or reduce items and volumes easily to follow demand. Ours have added on for example $12 for a pizza kit - 4 bases, sauce and grated 3 cheese, add own protein, veggies or whatever.

I know about their choices as the delivery comes to mine, their place not suitable for delivery.

They might not be the original target market, but maybe a sign of a different market. And also that the range is extending weekly, though range of meal options has shrunk as well mainly since covid last year.

[Balance]

It used to be that when Milford bought into a stock, many (including me) would consider that as a good sign and most likely, invest too.

Those days are long gone, it seems with Milford being the only volume buyer supporting MFB's sagging share price.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MFB/382823/359214.pdf

[Dlownz]

It used to be that when Milford bought into a stock, many (including me) would consider that as a good sign and most likely, invest too.

Those days are long gone, it seems with Milford being the only volume buyer supporting MFB's sagging share price.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MFB/382823/359214.pdf

Well they are not buying it for my aggressive fund so I'm happy

[Balance]

Well they are not buying it for my aggressive fund so I'm happy

Well, they seem to be using new investors’ funds to support the share price after becoming one of the 3 institutions which ‘cornered’ 20% of the IPO stock at $1.85.

[Sideshow Bob]

My Food Bag achieves record earnings; confirms dividend - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/383136)

My Food Bag is pleased to release its half year results for the six months ended 30 September 2021. These results demonstrate a strong first half of the year for the business, underpinned by a combination of operational achievements and further product innovation.
Highlights include:

• NPAT of $9.4 million, up 24.6% on H1 FY21
• EBITDA of $16.0 million, up 11.6% on H1 FY21
• Active customers up 3.3% compared to the end of H1 FY21
• High value active customers up 3.1% year-on-year
• Revenue of $98.4 million, down 6.5% year-on-year due to 2020 nationwide lockdown spike
• Launch of My Food Bag Kitchen, the business’ first significant step outside of weeknight meals
• Expanded recipe choice to include Bargain Box and Fresh Start brands
• Fully imputed interim dividend of 3.0 cents per share declared

Tony Carter, Chairman of My Food Bag says “These results mark the halfway point of our first full year as a publicly listed company and demonstrate clear progress, and the achievement of some important milestones, as we grow within New Zealand’s $37 billion retail food sector.

[winner69]

Bob ...you are meant to highlight the Record earnings bit

[artemis]

MFB has a supply chain advantage in that its future demand is locked and paid for. Plenty of companies would give their eye teeth.

[Sideshow Bob]

Bob ...you are meant to highlight the Record earnings bit

My apologies Winner - fixed now. :t_up:

[nztx]

Bob ...you are meant to highlight the Record earnings bit



Record Earnings as compared against what ? ;)


Are IPO holders still deep under water .. reaching for their snorkels to see what is going on ? ;)

[Maxtrade]

Record Earnings as compared against what ? ;)


Are IPO holders still deep under water .. reaching for their snorkels to see what is going on ? ;)

Makes you wonder where there market seems fair value for this stock. Analysts way over estimated, such as Jarden etc. Still no support or volume buyers at these levels 1.15. Does it need to settle in sub $1 for any real interest to be sparked. Bit of an anomaly that the SP has declined so much from the IPO. The company does have a lot of competition in the space which have obviously hindered, such as Hello Fresh etc etc. Also My Food Bag isn't the cheapest option, so with the cost of living increasing maybe investors are concerned consumers will second guess weather to spend that much extra for the convenience of My food bags model. Thats the only real sense why the share has not found any real support since it's launch.

[Beagle]

Looking at the chart since it listed there are some early indications it is starting to find support at around the current level ~ $1.20.
Annualizing the recent half year result gives NPAT of 18.8m on 242.4m shares = eps of 7.75 cps and has them on a forward PE of 15.5.
I would argue this is the price they should have floated at.
For mine, Its very early days. I'd need to see more evidence its built a base at around this price before deciding if there is genuine merit in their business model and it really can grow from here over time or whether Covid is giving this business model an artificial boost, (which I suspect is the case).

[winner69]

At least MFB didn’t close on the days low ….but 111 is pretty low

Wonder how the Xmas feast orders are going?

Maybe start the new year sub $1

Definitely not the IPO of the year

[Gerald]

At least MFB didn’t close on the days low ….but 111 is pretty low

Wonder how the Xmas feast orders are going?

Maybe start the new year sub $1

Definitely not the IPO of the year


Just saw Mint capitulated out after buying at or near the IPO price.

Didn't realise making sell decisions based on a price going down constantly was a good idea, but they are very benchmark conscious I suppose.

[Balance]

Just saw Mint capitulated out after buying at or near the IPO price.

Didn't realise making sell decisions based on a price going down constantly was a good idea, but they are very benchmark conscious I suppose.

$1.08 low today with no real support so $1.00 is almost a certainty as there is no takeover appeal with the company?

Where did you read about Mint selling out?

[Gerald]

$1.08 low today with no real support so $1.00 is almost a certainty as there is no takeover appeal with the company?

Where did you read about Mint selling out?


Messaged you.

[Beagle]

Looks like the faint signs of support @ $1.20 were a classic trap for the unwary. Beagle too old and cautious to buy into early faint signs of a base being built and far to cunning to buy into a confirmed downtrend.

Waiting for the downtrend to definitely be over by a break up through the 100 day MA, (if that ever happens) seems like the safest strategy now.
The share price needs to be priced as MFB "My friggen bargain" before I'd touch it.

60-70 cents where the real value lies ?

[Balance]

Messaged you.

Thanks. Much appreciated.

[Getty]

Looks like the faint signs of support @ $1.20 were a classic trap for the unwary. Beagle too old and cautious to buy into early faint signs of a base being built and far to cunning to buy into a confirmed downtrend.

Waiting for the downtrend to definitely be over by a break up through the 100 day MA, (if that ever happens) seems like the safest strategy now.
The share price needs to be priced as MFB "My friggen bargain" before I'd touch it.

60-70 cents where the real value lies ?

Yelp. I mean Yep, a dog's breakfast even at those prices.

[nztx]

Wonder if the inhouse MFB Baconator has even noticed yet ? ;)

not even so much as a clumsy spin or cough emitted so far .. is he still onboard, awake and
not sound asleep snoring off some early Christmas celebrations under one of the kitchen benches ? ;)

[Lola]

Wonder if the inhouse MFB Baconator has even noticed yet ? ;)

not even so much as a clumsy spin or cough emitted so far .. is he still onboard, awake and
not sound asleep snoring off some early Christmas celebrations under one of the kitchen benches ? ;)

Time not far away for Tony Gavigan to get into action again. ? This has been an enormous stitch up , and its far from over.

[winner69]

Time not far away for Tony Gavigan to get into action again. ? This has been an enormous stitch up , and its far from over.

That would be fun to watch

But Matt and Chris will be enjoying this years Christmas roast

[Beagle]

Promotors extoling the virtues of this company and strongly encouraging naïve first time investors who were customers of MFB to invest with the phrase "Tuck In" was egregiously disgraceful.

[maclir]

All the love Cecilia Robibson's getting at the moment, but she never gets asked about this dog.

[Balance]

Promotors extoling the virtues of this company and strongly encouraging naïve first time investors who were customers of MFB to invest with the phrase "Tuck In" was egregiously disgraceful.

Harbour Asset Management had a big helping (9%), and swallowed more (now 11%) and this is what Shane Solly of the fund said today on NZ Hersld:

"My Food Bag has been a bit disappointing - at a time when they have continued to grow market share it has not resonated with investors. The business is doing what said they were going to do. They have both got opportunities to get better."

Guess they should keep buying more than as the shares are getting cheaper!

[winner69]

Harbour Asset Management had a big helping (9%), and swallowed more (now 11%) and this is what Shane Solly of the fund said today on NZ Hersld:

"My Food Bag has been a bit disappointing - at a time when they have continued to grow market share it has not resonated with investors. The business is doing what said they were going to do. They have both got opportunities to get better."

Guess they should keep buying more than as the shares are getting cheaper!

Harbour see 'improvement' ... that's good

IPO failed when that idiot of a CEO Bowler opened his big mouth before listing and said the forecasts were conservative ...thereby eliminating the ploy of coming out with an upgrade shortly after listing and keeping the punters excited ....before the inevitable decline.

I said at time list at 175 or whatever ... profit upgrade takes share price over 200 .... and then probably do a Metro (175 to 225 and now 36)

And Bowler keeps his job

Disc... shouldn't have bought at 130 to return the borrowed shares .... bugger

[Balance]

You made money, W69 so that’s a good outcome vs all the retail punters whose meals from MFB became more and more expensive as the sp went lower & lower.

[percy]

No.2 daughter gets the odd month's supply.
Gave me a Lamb Shepherd's Pie. Was very tastie.

[Shareguy]

My Food Bag picks up this year’s CourierPost Certificate for missed deliveryafter the food package service’s hotly anticipated IPO, the NZX’s largest since 2014, was served cold. Having listed at $1.85 a share, valuing it at $449m, its share price has since fallen as low as $1.11 in December, even with the supposed lockdown tailwinds driving grocery shoppers online (https://www.nbr.co.nz/analysis/long-road-ahead-my-food-bag). This gruel will need Nadia Lim’s most creative recipes yet to turn around in 2022.

[winner69]

Poor WOOP - leaving a stream of pissed off customers by not delivering their expensive Christmas boxes.

Mind you we had a MFB Christmas Meal a few years ago -- they left one of the entrees out of the boxes (for everybody)

WOOP has created bad goodwill for the whole industry

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/127381777/angry-customers-berate-woop-after-christmas-food-boxes-fail-to-show

Best Christmas lunch I've ever had when 5 of us (3 vegeterians) went to Logan Brown. They waited upon us with a seven course meal - magnificent and not that expensive when it came down to it.

[Joshuatree]

Came down to what?

[nztx]

NZH's review of 2021 IPO's gives MFB a further rap over the knuckles

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/hits-and-misses-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly-results-from-local-ipos/WXNXSF24GRFWLKDFEPXKHB5XW4/


IPO hits and misses: The good, the bad and the ugly

(NZH premium content)



Kev (the resident MFB Chief Bacon) will really love this NZH sub heading:

My Food Bag's poor delivery

[nztx]

Have we discussed MFB hiking it's prices here in the past ? ;)

Or only Kev's efficiency strategies which hardly see a mention now .. :)

[bottomfeeder]

'MADE' price increase by a buck a tray. About 7% . Will likely see some reduction in demand.

Another price increase? So much competition out there. But they are nice We get the odd 12 pack of Made meals. Have to buy the twelve pack to get the price down.

[artemis]

Another price increase? So much competition out there. But they are nice We get the odd 12 pack of Made meals. Have to buy the twelve pack to get the price down.

Lots of price rises everywhere these days, probably going to get worse. MFB are not targeting the 'watch every penny' market. More the 'time is the new money' market.

MFB is likely to pick up some customers from a competitor that may struggle to survive after recent troubles.

[artemis]

One noticeable change over at MFB is the steady increase in grocery and ready made items available to be added to an order. Well over 100 items now, mostly top end / artisan though pricing is same or similar from supermarket if available there, eg Lewis Road Creamery, Collective yoghurt, Culley's condiments.

Since the model is based on confirmed and paid for orders a week in advance there is no inventory risk involved, and little extra effort since the logistics are already in place. Assume therefore it is profitable and also highly flexible as demand fluctuates.

I read somewhere a while back the MFB is the third largest grocery supplier in NZ.

[huxley]

We’ve been using MFB to buy additional grocery items, the range is good and prices are comparable to supermarkets. I’ve taken a position in MFB recently, I think they’ll be able to pay a 7c imputed dividend for the next few years, this is where the IPO should have been priced imo.

[Sideshow Bob]

My Food Bag - Q3 FY22 Trading Update - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/386257)

My Food Bag Group Limited (MFB) provides this brief update in the interests of keeping the market informed of trading and operations following the conclusion of the third quarter of FY22 (Q3).

Q3 performance

My Food Bag has continued to perform strongly. The preliminary net sales value (being revenue net of any customer credits and discounts) for the quarter was $52.1m, up 15% on the prior comparable period (Q3 FY21). Deliveries for this period were approximately 388,000, up 9%.
At the end of Q3, My Food Bag had 71,085 active customers, up 1.5% on the prior comparable period.

The highlight for the quarter was undoubtedly the success of My Food Bag's Christmas offering. More Kiwis than ever trusted My Food Bag to deliver a Christmas box, with deliveries up 11.8% on the prior Christmas. The feedback from customers has been overwhelmingly positive and the business is delighted to have played its part in helping Kiwis celebrate Christmas with family and friends.

We also continue to see growth in the Kitchen and are working to develop it further as a source of highly valued solutions, beyond meals, for our customers.
Heading into the final quarter of FY22 (Q4), My Food Bag's lead indicators in terms of order value, order frequency and brand mix continue to track positively. The latest 'Fresh Start' campaign has also been launched and is performing strongly, with record deliveries being achieved for this brand.
Inflationary pressure

Like all businesses, My Food Bag is experiencing increased inflationary pressure. This is especially evident in labour costs and produce pricing, the latter of which is expected to be further impacted by the drier conditions being experienced in New Zealand over the summer period. My Food Bag has plans in place to manage these cost pressures, but this remains a key area of focus in Q4.

From an operational perspective, My Food Bag continues to operate safely in accordance with its COVID-19 response protocols. Management is also taking the time now to prepare for a likely surge in Omicron cases in the community and expects to work closely with its suppliers and staff if and when that outbreak occurs to minimise the risk of any disruption to normal operations.

Senior leadership team

As announced in December, My Food Bag has appointed a new Chief Supply Chain Officer, Paul Kelly, who is scheduled to start in March 2022. With Jo Mitchell (Chief Customer Customer) commencing during Q3, the My Food Bag senior leadership team has now been reset with experience and capability to help My Food Bag grow through its next phase as a listed company.

We look forward to introducing the newest members of My Food Bag's senior leadership team to investors at this year's annual meeting in August.

Outlook

Given the performance through the first three quarters of FY22 and the positive early trading in January, the Board is pleased to reaffirm its FY22 earnings guidance, as outlined in the Prospective Financial Information (PFI) provided at the time of the IPO. Consistent with statements made at My Food Bag's interim results in November, revenue is now anticipated to be slightly improved on the PFI, albeit this is not expected to result in an increase in earnings for the period given higher input costs and operating expenses associated with operating safely during the pandemic and introducing new product initiatives.

My Food Bag's FY22 results will be released in May 2022, with details to follow in the coming months.

Authorised by:
Board of Directors of My Food Bag Group Limited.
Ends

[winner69]

Could My Food Bag become this years market darling?

[Muse]

Could My Food Bag become this years market darling?

unless it gets taken over my 2 cents are on definitely no

[artemis]

unless it gets taken over my 2 cents are on definitely no

Reasons? I agree, actually, reasons being I see it as more an income play rather than growth. And more likely to tick along as long as they keep adding customers and products.

Apparently supermarkets make too much profit, so the government tells us, and we can assume that MFB makes a similar order of (too much) profit for its size helped by a very different business model. Good for shareholders!

[huxley]

Reasons? I agree, actually, reasons being I see it as more an income play rather than growth. And more likely to tick along as long as they keep adding customers and products.

Apparently supermarkets make too much profit, so the government tells us, and we can assume that MFB makes a similar order of (too much) profit for its size helped by a very different business model. Good for shareholders!

Same here, this is 100% about dividends, I don’t want to pay anything for growth lol. Will only buy if it trades under $1.16

[Muse]

Reasons? I agree, actually, reasons being I see it as more an income play rather than growth. And more likely to tick along as long as they keep adding customers and products.

More or less same as you. It's not a bad company per se (not a great one either), just was a terrible investment at IPO. Only moat is its brand & first mover advantage, whatever that is worth. It's got yield and it has an option value associated with a takeover at some point. My first ever post on ST was on MFB, and my concerns were all around cost and operational performance.


Long time lurker, first time poster here - hi everyone!

First post on My Food Bag - maybe a risky proposition (both the wisdom of my first post and MFB shares!).

I too like most was highly skeptical of MFB both both when it was being talked up years before the float and when the pricing was set. Clearly most of the discussion was around the sustainability of its revenue and outlook from a high watermark (so won't repeat) but what concerned me more was the potential for EBITDA margin compression and its valuation. MFB is quite a labour intensive business with all the assembly that is required and wages were already rising with minimum wage increasing, and wages above but near M.W. needed to lift proportionately to keep favour w/ the employee. Food prices are also volatile and can go up but a big portion of food costs at the 'near retail' level are labour costs from the producers, and fuel. MFB isn't cheap and competes with supermarkets who have massive cost advantages so I wondered if it had sufficient headroom to absorb costs. One of the listed comparables in Australia has just seen its margins decrease by around a third, so I think that risk remains real. I'm more comfortable on the revenue front.

The risk that worries me is an operational failure. It's a big supply chain through to end distribution and one that is pretty specialised so I assume MFB may have been working with lots of excel spreadsheets and random & non bespoke ERMs. It would be pretty easy to see duplicate orders get sent out, un recovered and not delivered raw materials, etc. Pretty dependent on a few people to get right and I see they have had some exits is area. I see that as being derisked over time as being in the public eye will bring more board focus on investment on systems and processes.

Obviously price a lot of it comes down to price and the IPO was woefully overvalued and surprised the instos took it - they didn't act very cartel like in fighting for better pricing. I did take a very small shareholding last week at 1.26 just before the AGM as I was hoping for and rec'd a reconfirmation on trading. In my mind in recent price bands the the business is okay for investment. It's still an interesting opportunity - superb cashflows, good margins, brand with consumers, long term growth expected in the industry. MFB continuing to carve out and defend its niche and margins key to all that which is why I have avoided investing anything meaninful into it.

Basilcat though your analysis on the price growth from 2016 to now a bit flawed. In 2016 with PE invested into MFB, the value of the *business* as a whole (IE its enterprise value) was a lot more than $50m. We know the value of the equity at purchase but not the debt. It's like someone trying to figure out how much you paid for a house by seeing what your deposit was without knowing what mortgage you took out to buy the whole thing. Same with waterman invested. THe value of the business then on an enterprise value to now is less dramatic, but still dramatic. Which shouldn't be too surprising as MFB was probably one of the biggest beneficiaries of Covid in NZ, 2nd to FPH.

Disc: recently purchased shares in MFB for first time, no other connections past or present.

[winner69]

Jeez, carnage on NZX continues ...I see MFB is getting very close to the $1.00 mark

Hasn't even had its first anniversary of being listed

[nztx]

My Antennae say still a bit north of what would be a good Meal Deal Steal :)


The SP graph trend is consistent - no two ways about it - hopefully like the service :)

[Ferg]

More or less same as you. It's not a bad company per se (not a great one either), just was a terrible investment at IPO. Only moat is its brand & first mover advantage, whatever that is worth. It's got yield and it has an option value associated with a takeover at some point. My first ever post on ST was on MFB, and my concerns were all around cost and operational performance.

Hey Moose

I put up an analysis last year, which is here (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9084-MFB-My-Food-Bag&p=871745&viewfull=1#post871745), and there are some other follow up posts. In addition nxtz (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9084-MFB-My-Food-Bag&p=871595&viewfull=1#post871595) also put in some work plus a few posts after that too. I'm not sure much has changed since then but there might come a point where the SP reflects good value.

You mentioned in your own quoted post about the use of spreadsheets etc and concerns over logistics etc. Back then you said "The risk that worries me is an operational failure. It's a big supply chain through to end distribution and one that is pretty specialised so I assume MFB may have been working with lots of excel spreadsheets and random & non bespoke ERMs."

I see the operational side of the business as a strength, rather than a risk. Granted access to labour may become an issue with imposed isolation for staff, but that is distinct from their logistical systems and processes. Per my post #271 (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9084-MFB-My-Food-Bag&p=871768&viewfull=1#post871768) I explored that side of things, and I had this to say back then:


FY21 has a projected inventory turn of 107 times per year, or 8.9 times a month and FY22 is 6.8 times a month. In other words they have on average less than 1 weeks inventory on hand. Granted that is the nature of shifting fresh food but IMO it is actually impressive. A good proportion of the inventories on hand will have a longer shelf life such as packaging and spices etc. which will inflate inventories, but these sorts of numbers show a high degree of logistical coordination. Earlier comparisons to a supermarket by others are not too wide of the mark.

The manpower and computing power to achieve these numbers should not be underestimated. An investor would want to see continuity of systems and procurement people given logistics is the backbone of this business. Recent investment into better systems will likely be central to achieving cost reductions via better purchase planning and less wastage etc. [snip] From a logistics perspective, this is an interesting business [snip].

I'm not aware of any logistical failures at MFB so I believe the logic still stands. One measure will be inventory turn, another will be DIFOT but we may not get to see that (haven't checked). There are good mid-range systems nowadays for exactly this sort of thing, and the fact they pump out so many meals every day is testament to their systems and processes. We would want to see continuity of staff in these areas to ensure the logistics side of the business operates like a well-oiled machine.

Disclosure: not a holder, but currently seeking value.

[Muse]

Hey Moose

I put up an analysis last year, which is here (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9084-MFB-My-Food-Bag&p=871745&viewfull=1#post871745), and there are some other follow up posts. In addition nxtz (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9084-MFB-My-Food-Bag&p=871595&viewfull=1#post871595) also put in some work plus a few posts after that too. I'm not sure much has changed since then but there might come a point where the SP reflects good value.

You mentioned in your own quoted post about the use of spreadsheets etc and concerns over logistics etc. Back then you said "The risk that worries me is an operational failure. It's a big supply chain through to end distribution and one that is pretty specialised so I assume MFB may have been working with lots of excel spreadsheets and random & non bespoke ERMs."

I see the operational side of the business as a strength, rather than a risk. Granted access to labour may become an issue with imposed isolation for staff, but that is distinct from their logistical systems and processes. Per my post #271 (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9084-MFB-My-Food-Bag&p=871768&viewfull=1#post871768) I explored that side of things, and I had this to say back then:



I'm not aware of any logistical failures at MFB so I believe the logic still stands. One measure will be inventory turn, another will be DIFOT but we may not get to see that (haven't checked). There are good mid-range systems nowadays for exactly this sort of thing, and the fact they pump out so many meals every day is testament to their systems and processes. We would want to see continuity of staff in these areas to ensure the logistics side of the business operates like a well-oiled machine.

Disclosure: not a holder, but currently seeking value.


My observation on risk involving supply chain stemmed from them losing at least two (that I know of) senior senior operations managers over the last few years. I had heard around the traps that the systems and processes up until a few years ago weren't flash and involved more excel than desirable. New systems and processes implemented in the lead up to the IPO which is great and I noted that as derisking supply chain failure once bedded in, but always implementation risk while these are implemented over a period of time. I'd assume they are bedded in. Point remains its a huge supply chain with many moving pieces - easy to catch a bullet somewhere - more particularly with covid.

I agree if they achieve operational excellence it is a bit of a moat. That hasn't stopped those germans from growing marketshare far faster. I'd imagine the germans are pretty good with supply chains and ERM software

I don't have any particular issue MFB per se - I scratch my head and ponder it as an investment, once every few months, while I watch it continue to drop.

Inflation the big worry - labour at MFB, and input costs, and MFB's ability to pass it on.

[artemis]

..... I'm not aware of any logistical failures at MFB so I believe the logic still stands. One measure will be inventory turn, another will be DIFOT but we may not get to see that (haven't checked). There are good mid-range systems nowadays for exactly this sort of thing, and the fact they pump out so many meals every day is testament to their systems and processes. We would want to see continuity of staff in these areas to ensure the logistics side of the business operates like a well-oiled machine.

Disclosure: not a holder, but currently seeking value.

As a longstanding customer I can attest to close to 100% DIFOT. A very very few times an item has been missed, usually not material eg packet of seasoning, but a couple of times over the years a more material ingredient. Dealt with by speedy credit. Deliveries can have more than 40 items so systems are pretty sharp. Rarely there is a mid week email to say that an item is not available and has been substituted. Recently one cut of bacon was substituted for another cut for example.

I have mentioned before on this thread that there is now a very long list of items that can be added to a delivery, pantry, heat and eat, bundles for eg BBQ, brunch, breakfasts, Valentines Day. The supply chain is almost a non issue as these items are ordered and paid for a week in advance so suppliers know exactly what and when to supply. And many are shelf stable anyway.

However, there was a delivery stuff up recently Not sure of the details as not affected, but with the following week's delivery a sorry, a recipe and code for those affected to add a free baking mix to the next order.

[Beagle]

Sounds like as a customer you're impressed artemis. Not so good for customers who were strongly encouraged to "tuck into" the IPO though.
Very "impressive" chart. Just steadily down at virtually the same pace ever since it listed. Its pretty clear to me that it was the promotors who were the ones who "tucked in" to naïve investors, many of which may have been customers.

I think fear over Covid infection persists as a tailwind for the company for a while but those tailwinds can't last forever.

Common sense says avoid this until a bottom is clear in the share price and a new uptrend starts, (assuming this ever happens), such that there's a clear break up through the 100 day MA. Trying to pick a bottom before that is likely to lead to more pain.

[bottomfeeder]

Yep have to agree, Too much competition, while product is good, just a struggle to build up market share. Only way this stock will reach IPO is if the NZ Population doubled very quickly.

[artemis]

Sounds like as a customer you're impressed artemis. Not so good for customers who were strongly encouraged to "tuck into" the IPO though.
Very "impressive" chart. Just steadily down at virtually the same pace ever since it listed. Its pretty clear to me that it was the promotors who were the ones who "tucked in" to naïve investors, many of which may have been customers.

I think fear over Covid infection persists as a tailwind for the company for a while but those tailwinds can't last forever.

Common sense says avoid this until a bottom is clear in the share price and a new uptrend starts, (assuming this ever happens), such that there's a clear break up through the 100 day MA. Trying to pick a bottom before that is likely to lead to more pain.


I was really just responding with some DIFOT experience. One of the competitors stuffed up DIFOT really badly recently and I doubt has recovered yet.

[huxley]

With a net (fully imputed) after tax return of 6.38% you’re just about keeping up with inflation :)

[Lola]

yep have to agree, too much competition, while product is good, just a struggle to build up market share. Only way this stock will reach ipo is if the nz population doubled very quickly.

dont loose any sleep. Milford is still there so it must be a great company.

[bottomfeeder]

dont loose any sleep. Milford is still there so it must be a great company.
Disc: Don't Hold and unless it reaches 50 cents never will. Not sure if you are joking, but wouldn't follow Milford into anything.

[Lola]

Disc: Don't Hold and unless it reaches 50 cents never will. Not sure if you are joking, but wouldn't follow Milford into anything.

Yes joking. Agree with you. Hard to fathom why the "professional "investors nearly all got sucked into this one , given that nearly all the new money was leaving next day. Must have been a lot of free feeds offered at the time.

[nztx]

With a net (fully imputed) after tax return of 6.38% you’re just about keeping up with inflation :)


Or the increases on the Menu card :)

[shareman]

MFB is such a conjob, theres no way its worth $405mil !

[huxley]

And we’ve hit $1.00 (market cap $242,437,524).

Someone who invested $1,000 in the IPO has a holding worth $540 today, with expected annual dividend of $37.

Great result.

[Recaster]

A stock that drops like this and has strong profitability and dividends which support a much higher share price, in my experience, will eventually have some bad tidings to share with investors.

[kiora]

Competition
https://woop.co.nz

[carrom74]

Competition
https://woop.co.nz

It’s a new company and in the press for all the wrong reasons…

https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/127381777/angry-customers-berate-woop-after-christmas-food-boxes-fail-to-show

[shareman]

MFB is a conjob and they've destroyed hundreds of millions of other people's money....how sad

[huxley]

Wonder if the supply chain is under pressure, seems covid is impacting similar businesses: https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/127929921/covidhit-new-zealand-couriers-delivering-only-critical-items-to-auckland-as-covid-bites

[Recaster]

MFB down to 97 cents today. Losses from IPO price now we'll over $200 mn.

My take:
https://recastinvestor.substack.com/p/basic-recast-analysis-my-food-bag

[nztx]

still a way to go towards the 50c mark :)

[shareman]

Run a mile, MFB is a conjob

[huxley]

The ipo was overvalued for sure, but this is a profitable company.

[Sideshow Bob]

Wonder if the supply chain is under pressure, seems covid is impacting similar businesses: https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/127929921/covidhit-new-zealand-couriers-delivering-only-critical-items-to-auckland-as-covid-bites

Sure that they must be starting to run into issues. If Foodies and Progs have issues with keeping product on shelves, then expect everyone is having the same.....

[nztx]

The ipo was overvalued for sure, but this is a profitable company.


dependent on passing on additional costs; workforce, supply chain & delivery network factors out there..

Factor in widespread Covid/Omicron disruption



these may be factors the market is also taking into account in pricing

[Ferg]

MFB down to 97 cents today. Losses from IPO price now we'll over $200 mn.

My take:
https://recastinvestor.substack.com/p/basic-recast-analysis-my-food-bag

Interesting website you have there. What is the intention? As in, which companies will you cover and how often?

[Recaster]

Hi Ferg. Mainly I'm wanting to improve my analysis skills. Will progress into finer detail and valuations over time I think.

Not sure the exact form the site will take but taking apart corporate accounts and making them understandable is an aim. Also wanting to find situations where information has been hidden from investors or disguised.

Any suggestions as to companies would be much appreciated! Pulled apart AIA and some property companies which was fun especially finding how much they rely on unrealised gains for their profits!!

As for frequency of coverage interims and annuals plus any alerts that crop up.

Thanks for the comments.

[nztx]

it looks like 94 pennies for a Friday tucker bag - is the Chief Chef okay ? :)


any guesses on what Monday's discounted fare will be ?

[Baa_Baa]

This can't be good for MFB, as the supermarket chains move further into the home delivered meal kits market. https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/127902099/shopping-to-a-menu-plan-new-world-paper-version-of-my-food-bag

[nztx]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/300275444/my-food-bag-share-price-will-recover-analysts-say

My Food Bag share price will recover, analysts say

that was published back on 13 April 2021 - 11 months ago



But investment advisers Forsyth Bar said the company would likely outperform over the coming months and would probably be back at $1.85 in a year’s time and deliver a 12-month return of 19.8 per cent.


can't have been using the right tea leaves, most might guess ;)

[Beagle]

Got these in my special "Train Wreck" watch list...excuse my morbid fascination with regard to train wrecks but there's always so many valuable lessons to be learned in terms of what not to do. Other participants in my current roll of honor include AIR, Synlait and Tourism Holdings. Mental note to self, must add Metropolitan Glass to that list, always a fascinating train wreck to watch, that one. Disappointingly I see MFB have broken the nice steady downtrend they have "enjoyed" since listing, (was remarkable that the ski slope stayed at the same steady gradient almost all the way and the slope of the decline has now increased :eek2:

I shudder to think how these will go without the tailwinds of Covid. 50 cents anyone ?

[Arbroath]

Got these in my special "Train Wreck" watch list...excuse my morbid fascination with regard to train wrecks but there's always so many valuable lessons to be learned in terms of what not to do. Other participants in my current roll of honor include AIR, Synlait and Tourism Holdings. Mental note to self, must add Metropolitan Glass to that list, always a fascinating train wreck to watch, that one. Disappointingly I see MFB have broken the nice steady downtrend they have "enjoyed" since listing, (was remarkable that the ski slope stayed at the same steady gradient almost all the way and the slope of the decline has now increased :eek2:

I shudder to think how these will go without the tailwinds of Covid. 50 cents anyone ?

Interested that you have THL as a train wreck when they’ve been hit by the COVID hurricane in tourism but have almost got themselves debt free and are looking to consolidate their industry again. Seems to me they’ve done brilliantly given the industry back drop?

[Balance]

Freaking amazing how an outfit like Milford got sucked into this obscenely overpriced and obvious con job.

Especially after Milford’s ex founding principal, Gaynor, actually warned against it!

[winner69]

Interested that you have THL as a train wreck when they’ve been hit by the COVID hurricane in tourism but have almost got themselves debt free and are looking to consolidate their industry again. Seems to me they’ve done brilliantly given the industry back drop?

I think beagle has been studying the thl ‘train wreck’ from 2018 ….we’ll before covid

Probably learned a few lessons along the way as well

[Beagle]

Interested that you have THL as a train wreck when they’ve been hit by the COVID hurricane in tourism but have almost got themselves debt free and are looking to consolidate their industry again. Seems to me they’ve done brilliantly given the industry back drop?

Its been interesting watching THL and AIR's different responses to the pandemic. Like I said, there's some interesting lessons to be learned from rubber necking at train wrecks. As Winner suggested I have been watching THL for quite a while now. Probably time it came off the list and Metropolitan Glass was added. What an absolute flea ridden mutt that is. In a booming building industry its shocking how badly they've performed.

[Arbroath]

Its been interesting watching THL and AIR's different responses to the pandemic. Like I said, there's some interesting lessons to be learned from rubber necking at train wrecks. As Winner suggested I have been watching THL for quite a while now. Probably time it came off the list and Metropolitan Glass was added. What an absolute flea ridden mutt that is. In a booming building industry its shocking how badly they've performed.

Yes compare Metro to Steel and Tube who did a discounted cap raise to get rid of their debt and have shown they have some real cyclical pricing power at least and can be more efficient. Metro just seem to always have an excuse instead of performing.

[Balance]

Its been interesting watching THL and AIR's different responses to the pandemic. Like I said, there's some interesting lessons to be learned from rubber necking at train wrecks. As Winner suggested I have been watching THL for quite a while now. Probably time it came off the list and Metropolitan Glass was added. What an absolute flea ridden mutt that is. In a booming building industry its shocking how badly they've performed.

Similarity between MetroGlass & MFB is that both were IPOed by Private Equity after they had milked everything they could from the companies/businesses.

Only mugs and fools participated in their IPOs.

[Popeye]

MFB were a puzzle to me. When I looked at their IM they looked for all the world like a business that were or would soon be under competitive and margin pressure, led by a CEO who did not really know food retail. Whereas the pricing anticipated growth in top and bottom line. The glossy material presented a wonderful picture, but only if you did not look too hard at the numbers, of which there were few. Add to that the lack of money staying behind in the business to compete with well funded competitors and it just looked a poor bet. My thought at the time was that it should have been priced at about $1 tops and anyone that bought in at listing prices would regret it.

Covid may have helped MFB a bit, food price inflation certainly wont. Nor is it a business that will benefit from a tight economy. A pity as the product itself seems like it is pretty good.

I wish them success but personally would be loathe to put any money in at above $0.50 unless they had proved they were on a path to profitable growth...

[Baa_Baa]

Similarity between MetroGlass & MFB is that both were IPOed by Private Equity after they had milked everything they could from the companies/businesses.


Only mugs and fools participated in their IPOs.

The MFB chart can attest to that (https://invst.ly/xk89m). This chart doesn't require TA commentary, anyone can see the carnage. The only small glimmer of hope is for a small bounce off the RSI low which has happened a few times previously, but not enough to sustain a breakout from the severe downtrend.

[Recaster]

Does anyone know where the $63 million of goodwill on the balance sheet before the IPO came from?

[Muse]

Does anyone know where the $63 million of goodwill on the balance sheet before the IPO came from?

It was formed on the initial buyout of MFB by Waterman and the other investors. It would have represented the difference between the purchase price and the identifiable net assets. Basically it is a capital light business so a large portion of its acquisition accounting was intangible assets/goodwill.

[nztx]

It was formed on the initial buyout of MFB by Waterman and the other investors. It would have represented the difference between the purchase price and the identifiable net assets. Basically it is a capital light business so a large portion of its acquisition accounting was intangible assets/goodwill.


That appears correct - in Nov 2016

Shareholder change:

http://app.companiesoffice.govt.nz/companies/app/ui/pages/companies/4142618/23677424/entityFilingRequirement


My Food Bag Holdings Limited (now removed) appears to be seller:

https://coys.co.nz/:entity?no=5189441&nzbn=9429041220993&name=MY+FOOD+BAG+HOLDINGS+LIMITED

MFB Previous Years Accounts appear on ASX at links under

31 Mar 2018:

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02350175-2A1285246?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4

31 Mar 2019:

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02350177-2A1285247?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4

31 Mar 2020:

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02350178-2A1285248?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4

The accounts above don't appear on the NZX site announcements for MFB, but
are held on ASX site.

From this the IPO shares at $1.60 was not the only instance of revaluation / value extraction,
as the $63 m goodwill upon the earlier reshuffle in 2016 appears to be yet another upon
transfer of subsidiary 'My Food Bag Ltd' to a new holding company ;)

[Muse]

That appears correct - in Nov 2016

Shareholder change:

http://app.companiesoffice.govt.nz/companies/app/ui/pages/companies/4142618/23677424/entityFilingRequirement


My Food Bag Holdings Limited (now removed) appears to be seller:

https://coys.co.nz/:entity?no=5189441&nzbn=9429041220993&name=MY+FOOD+BAG+HOLDINGS+LIMITED

MFB Previous Years Accounts appear on ASX at links under

31 Mar 2018:

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02350175-2A1285246?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4

31 Mar 2019:

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02350177-2A1285247?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4

31 Mar 2020:

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02350178-2A1285248?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4

The accounts above don't appear on the NZX site announcements for MFB, but
are held on ASX site.

From this the IPO shares at $1.60 was not the only instance of revaluation / value extraction,
as the $63 m goodwill upon the earlier reshuffle in 2016 appears to be yet another upon
transfer of subsidiary 'My Food Bag Ltd' to a new holding company ;)

Pretty much.

[Recaster]

Thanks guys.

[shareman]

MFBs slide continues, there is no value here, this is a conjob

[Beagle]

MFBs slide continues, there is no value here, this is a conjob

Maybe at 50 cents ?

[huxley]

Amazing how theres no volume in either direction, just slowly bleeding out. What do you reckon, will they make the forecast provided at the time of their IPO, will they be able to pay a dividend, will they see revenue levels fall and cost per customer increase?

[Muse]

Amazing how theres no volume in either direction, just slowly bleeding out. What do you reckon, will they make the forecast provided at the time of their IPO, will they be able to pay a dividend, will they see revenue levels fall and cost per customer increase?

MFB reiterated its prospectus guidance back in October 2021. The company operates with a March financial year so the year is nearly complete and no profit warnings in the interim, although anything is possible these days with covid close contacts impacting distribution centres across the country in a range of industries. The same for labour and input inflation, though MFB has increased prices to compensate.

Regardless if they meet prospectus guidance, I don't think a dividend is in doubt. It's a cashflow machine with very little investment in capex or working capital required.

[huxley]

MFB reiterated its prospectus guidance back in October 2021. The company operates with a March financial year so the year is nearly complete and no profit warnings in the interim, although anything is possible these days with covid close contacts impacting distribution centres across the country in a range of industries. The same for labour and input inflation, though MFB has increased prices to compensate.

Regardless if they meet prospectus guidance, I don't think a dividend is in doubt. It's a cashflow machine with very little investment in capex or working capital required.

Exactly, they are very likely to confirm the 4c full year dividend for the FY ending March. Will be interesting what they signal for the next 12 months. You have to assume their distribution channels are being impacted. On the other hand, with supermarket shelves emptying, they may get further tailwinds as customers sign up to diversify their access to groceries.

[nztx]

MFB reiterated its prospectus guidance back in October 2021. The company operates with a March financial year so the year is nearly complete and no profit warnings in the interim, although anything is possible these days with covid close contacts impacting distribution centres across the country in a range of industries. The same for labour and input inflation, though MFB has increased prices to compensate.

Regardless if they meet prospectus guidance, I don't think a dividend is in doubt. It's a cashflow machine with very little investment in capex or working capital required.

And on 21 Jan 2022:

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/386257


Outlook

Given the performance through the first three quarters of FY22 and the positive early trading in January, the Board is pleased to reaffirm its FY22 earnings guidance, as outlined in the Prospective Financial Information (PFI) provided at the time of the IPO. Consistent with statements made at My Food Bag's interim results in November, revenue is now anticipated to be slightly improved on the PFI, albeit this is not expected to result in an increase in earnings for the period given higher input costs and operating expenses associated with operating safely during the pandemic and introducing new product initiatives.


Given that there hasn't been any further updates on guidance since - things must be tracking fine & dandy..

No material problems whatsoever on supply chain, delivery, staff, Covid, other issues - we are entitled to assume ?

The Baconator wouldn't want to put a foot wrong, miss anything material or make himself into a Stakeholders baconfest for failure to disclose any glaring adverse factors - would he ? ;)

[huxley]

To be fair though, I can’t see any recent announcements here indicating that they’ve run into any problems whatsoever, never mind what been reported in the media eh ;)

https://www.woolworthsgroup.com.au/page/investors/our-performance/investor-news/

[Lola]

MFBs slide continues, there is no value here, this is a conjob

Yes the market cap has shed $200 million plus since the IPO. Disgraceful. And yet Gattung has a one page article in todays Herald about how wonderful ladies are in business and if only they were given the chance they would add so much value. . Uh?

[Balance]

Yes the market cap has shed $200 million plus since the IPO. Disgraceful. And yet Gattung has a one page article in todays Herald about how wonderful ladies are in business and if only they were given the chance they would add so much value. . Uh?

After her reign of wealth destruction at Telecom, Gattung seriously thinks she has any credibility?

[Arbroath]

After her reign of wealth destruction at Telecom, Gattung seriously thinks she has any credibility?

Maybe she should set up a construction company with Jenny Shipley?

[Sampan]

I realise it has probably been discussed but 50 cents is on the cards for this one. Simply, there are so many factors against it as it stands. Firstly, increasing mortgage rates. A number of mortgages roll off this April and many of these are on the 1 year special (at the time around 2.5%). Many of these borrowers will be literally resetting their mortgage rates at 4.5%, that is a lot of extra cash to find every month but, being the mortgage, it will be found. Meal kit services such as this will the first to be shelved in favour of bulk buying, eating cheaper meals and being more efficient. Add to that general inflation such as fuel and other food items - these will always take priority in the same light a mortgage will. Further, much of the inflation that MFB are facing as input costs simply cannot be passed on to the client for the reasons above. All in all, I feel for the investors who loaded into this, against much advice, as its an absolute dog.

[ralph]

I realise it has probably been discussed but 50 cents is on the cards for this one. Simply, there are so many factors against it as it stands. Firstly, increasing mortgage rates. A number of mortgages roll off this April and many of these are on the 1 year special (at the time around 2.5%). Many of these borrowers will be literally resetting their mortgage rates at 4.5%, that is a lot of extra cash to find every month but, being the mortgage, it will be found. Meal kit services such as this will the first to be shelved in favour of bulk buying, eating cheaper meals and being more efficient. Add to that general inflation such as fuel and other food items - these will always take priority in the same light a mortgage will. Further, much of the inflation that MFB are facing as input costs simply cannot be passed on to the client for the reasons above. All in all, I feel for the investors who loaded into this, against much advice, as its an absolute dog.
Would you actually be interested at 50 c Sampan , I did have a sniff when it went sub 90 c but still smelt bad and balked

[nztx]

What do you know .. and on no news the headless turkey brigade decide MFB is worth 6c more @ 0.98 ;)

Probably the same lot who have stocked up on AIR thinking the coming Cap Raise is a bonus ;)

and then they scream loudly about their Kiwisaver accounts sailing backwards badly :)

[Beagle]

Maybe she should set up a construction company with Jenny Shipley?

:lol: :lol: Brilliant, post of the week !

[shareman]

MFB: run a mile, 50c here we come

[Sampan]

Would you actually be interested at 50 c Sampan , I did have a sniff when it went sub 90 c but still smelt bad and balked

Good question. Probably not!

[RRR]

I bought a few yesterday 0.92 :D

[nztx]

I bought a few yesterday 0.92 :D


should have waited until next week .. who knows they may get to 72c & a bag of prayers :)

[winner69]

should have waited until next week .. who knows they may get to 72c & a bag of prayers :)
Before it listed I said the share price would follow the Metro Glass path …initial climb with excitement after a profit upgrade and then slide back to Metro like prices. The initial climb didn’t happen because Bowler opened his mouth and announced the upgrade before listing …..but my prediction is playing out

Still a way to go …..once downgrades start

[RGR367]

I bought a few yesterday 0.92 :D

Ouch. That's expensive :cool:

[Simsee]

Ouch. That's expensive :cool:

https://nbr.us18.list-manage.com/track/click?u=ba70e1968fc317870f33501d9&id=9a79554f33&e=8287662e66

[RRR]

https://nbr.us18.list-manage.com/track/click?u=ba70e1968fc317870f33501d9&id=9a79554f33&e=8287662e66

Doordash competes with Ubereats:)

[baaantom]

Any business that offers a convenient alternative to cooking your own dinner, is a MFB competitor. The market is crowded and the margins are being squeezed. Not a business I'd pay any price for.

[shareman]

Any business that offers a convenient alternative to cooking your own dinner, is a MFB competitor. The market is crowded and the margins are being squeezed. Not a business I'd pay any price for.

Dump em, soon they'll be 50c

[Joshuatree]

I bought a few yesterday 0.92 :D

Good luck to you. With all the shallow copycat knocking of this stock based on its past history, listing etc im keeping a watch and may get around to more research. Not uncommonly it can pay to do the opposite to the herd, Oceania and its guru influencing many punters unfortunately, being a classic example.

[Beagle]

Before it listed I said the share price would follow the Metro Glass path …initial climb with excitement after a profit upgrade and then slide back to Metro like prices. The initial climb didn’t happen because Bowler opened his mouth and announced the upgrade before listing …..but my prediction is playing out

Still a way to go …..once downgrades start

I suspect you're right and investors are on a hiding to nothing. Buying in a downtrend in this market is a very risky proposition. Once Covid finally finishes and the tailwinds of food being home delivered are over what can they earn then ?

[huxley]

Still falling, no end in sight. S&P was up ~2.4% and NZX50 up 1.4% so far today. They will have to have one hell of an update in May :) :)

[nztx]

The slope of the graph is fairly consistent - ideal for sliding all the used pots, pans
& plates down into the sink all by themselves .. no additional assistance needed ;)

At this rate the only job left for the Baconiser might be the drying up after :)

[winner69]

yes, chart does show steady decline .....at 1.3% per week

Mind you there has been some up weeks along the way to cheers punters up

Quick sums -been 33 down weeks and 21 UP weeks .... so happy quite often

[RRR]

MFB will make 20 million profit. 220million market cap. PE of 11.
Almost no leverage. Capital light business
Dividend of 4 cents in May 2022. 3 cents already paid late last year.
Total div 7 cents fully imputed, share price 93 cents
I avoided at IPO, but I am a buyer at current share price

bought a few more yesterday:)

[nztx]

multi bagger here or multi dividend collect for the risks on a multitude of potential factors ? ;)

I'm considering getting Ms Gattung in as a consultant with view to floating 'The Hawk's Kitchen"
given MFB's large scale successes for those initial holder's out of successfully floating the boat ;)

[bottomfeeder]

Cancelled Made meal subscription today. Was sick of getting pre-made food in following conditions. 1. Stacking in the box not level and all pushed to one end of tray. 2. Plastic seal on top of tray not sealed properly in all places. Now where you combine these you get leakage. As well received chicken and vegetable pies today with half seal coming off. Can't freeze them, and worried about how long been exposed to air and pollution. The box has two cutout handles allowing atmosphere at courier truck base to ingress.

Has happened before on a number of occasions. Just shows that they are cutting some corners on quality control in the search for profitability. After all they need to prop up their sagging SP. Shame really as meals can be tasty and handy when you don't want to cook. Quality deterioration will get you lost customers every time.

[JAX]

Cancelled Made meal subscription today. Was sick of getting pre-made food in following conditions. 1. Stacking in the box not level and all pushed to one end of tray. 2. Plastic seal on top of tray not sealed properly in all places. Now where you combine these you get leakage. As well received chicken and vegetable pies today with half seal coming off. Can't freeze them, and worried about how long been exposed to air and pollution. The box has two cutout handles allowing atmosphere at courier truck base to ingress.

Has happened before on a number of occasions. Just shows that they are cutting some corners on quality control in the search for profitability. After all they need to prop up their sagging SP. Shame really as meals can be tasty and handy when you don't want to cook. Quality deterioration will get you lost customers every time.

This is true, perhaps this could be a good investment based on the technical numbers today - the question is will it last. As someone who has used these boxes pretty much weekly for the last couple of years I feel Im a bit of an aficionado and on every level MFB is a poor player. HelloFresh is superior in just about every way, from services through to the meals themselves and how they are packed through to the customer service or lack thereof in MFB's case. If im kind, occasionally i see some MFB recipes that look different. Saying that everytime we have ventured into MFB world usually using some sort of discount its been disappointing and if they come under further cost pressure I dont see it improving only getting worse. Last time we got one, a dude turned in a sedan with 3 boxes in it. When the HF guy arrives in its in a truck filled to the brim with boxes in fact im having trouble getting HF delivery slots at times - in the Central Northshore of Auckland. I would love to see the marketshare breakdown, it feels like it would be 5 or 10 boxes to 1, could be more.

The best way I can describe it succinctly is MFB - seems like a business run from Nadia Lim's garage still - HelloFresh seems like a business backed by a multibillion dollar global enterprise, with all the financial backing and systems and processes that goes with that and given loyalty in this business is not really existent. I can swap and have with a few clicks week to week - this is dangerous. There is no commitment, they could lose all their customers in a week with little consequence to the customers who can easily swap elsewhere or back to what they did before. That's a bit scary.

Not trying to be negative but I wouldn't invest in these guys, slow death is not a zero percent chance in my view and since they have already cashed out etc etc - just dont see what will change, as they already took their shot and are up against some very competent competition with perhaps more to come.

[bottomfeeder]

Maybe, as they have made their money at the IPO, that they are losing interest.

[Grimy]

Hello Fresh can also deliver by beat-up sedan too sometimes. That's how our first (and so far only) box arrived. Must be regular as the driver asked if we would be a new regular customer for him. Did seem a bit down market, but there may not be many customers in our area. Doesn't worry me much how the food is delivered, the guy was pleasant and arrived on time.
We were overcharged and it took a couple of lots of contacts (with the dreaded on-line chat) and about a month to get our refund - thank goodness I took screenshots of the first conversation to prove my case second time around, as they wouldn't provide a transcript of the conversation when asked.
Too much hassle to be bothered using again.

[Habits]

"made in Nadia Lim's garage still"

May be difficult as she lives on a huge acreage/high country station in the deep south or Canterbury

[huxley]

That’s really interesting because we have used both MFB and HF and found MFB was far superior in quality of product and recipe design. It was funny a few months ago a HF box was delivered to our address by mistake, as it was about 100 doors wrong I messaged HF via social and they just said we could keep it and they’d sort out their customer. While it was nice to get some free food, the meals were pretty boring, bulked out with carbs and even included long life milk instead of fresh.. personal preference for sure, but I would go for MFB 100% over HF.

[JAX]

Hello Fresh can also deliver by beat-up sedan too sometimes. That's how our first (and so far only) box arrived. Must be regular as the driver asked if we would be a new regular customer for him. Did seem a bit down market, but there may not be many customers in our area. Doesn't worry me much how the food is delivered, the guy was pleasant and arrived on time.
We were overcharged and it took a couple of lots of contacts (with the dreaded on-line chat) and about a month to get our refund - thank goodness I took screenshots of the first conversation to prove my case second time around, as they wouldn't provide a transcript of the conversation when asked.
Too much hassle to be bothered using again.

I guess my point was in a central NorthShore high population suburb, they shouldnt have an issue finding customers to fill a van. But appear to.

[JAX]

Hello Fresh can also deliver by beat-up sedan too sometimes. That's how our first (and so far only) box arrived. Must be regular as the driver asked if we would be a new regular customer for him. Did seem a bit down market, but there may not be many customers in our area. Doesn't worry me much how the food is delivered, the guy was pleasant and arrived on time.
We were overcharged and it took a couple of lots of contacts (with the dreaded on-line chat) and about a month to get our refund - thank goodness I took screenshots of the first conversation to prove my case second time around, as they wouldn't provide a transcript of the conversation when asked.
Too much hassle to be bothered using again.

Again not my experience. Just last night at midnight (yes a weird time - but its when I thought of it ) I jumped on the live chat - answered in 30 seconds - and since they forgot an item a reasonably important one - they actually refunded me the week. Expensive for them, but cant complain of the service. Took all of 5 minutes a very good hourly rate for my time.

[JAX]

In any given week there is like 10 or 20 choices - you choose what you want, perhaps you got a bad customer who just liked that stuff - but there is no doubt there is plenty of carb filled options - never had anything with milk so cant comment on that. In any event, I find the quality very good but im no expert apart from having had both more than 20x each (and HF a lot more) - also your not really comparing apples with apples as such. MFB is a lot more expensive - $209 vs $154 for 5 nights for 4 people - HF is more comparable to MFB's Bargain Box

[JAX]

That’s really interesting because we have used both MFB and HF and found MFB was far superior in quality of product and recipe design. It was funny a few months ago a HF box was delivered to our address by mistake, as it was about 100 doors wrong I messaged HF via social and they just said we could keep it and they’d sort out their customer. While it was nice to get some free food, the meals were pretty boring, bulked out with carbs and even included long life milk instead of fresh.. personal preference for sure, but I would go for MFB 100% over HF.

In any given week there is like 10 or 20 choices - you choose what you want, perhaps you got a bad customer who just liked that stuff, but there is no doubt there is plenty of carb filled options - never had anything with milk so cant comment on that. In any event, I find the quality very good but im no expert apart from having had both more than 20x each (and HF a lot more) - also your not really comparing apples with apples as such. MFB is a lot more expensive - $209 vs $154 for 5 nights for 4 people - HF is more comparable to MFB's Bargain Box price wise - if you want to try it again let me know I have so many free box codes I dont know what to do with them.

[huxley]

Thanks for the offer Jax, I probably will give the other providers a go a some point, maybe WOOP. They keep emailing every few weeks with a discount :)

Doing a bit of Googling I noticed there was a fairly recent Canstar review which seems to provide some interesting insights into meal kit provers.

https://www.canstarblue.co.nz/food-drink/meal-kit-delivery/

[ralph]

In any given week there is like 10 or 20 choices - you choose what you want, perhaps you got a bad customer who just liked that stuff, but there is no doubt there is plenty of carb filled options - never had anything with milk so cant comment on that. In any event, I find the quality very good but im no expert apart from having had both more than 20x each (and HF a lot more) - also your not really comparing apples with apples as such. MFB is a lot more expensive - $209 vs $154 for 5 nights for 4 people - HF is more comparable to MFB's Bargain Box price wise - if you want to try it again let me know I have so many free box codes I dont know what to do with them.
Pass some over pal ,thanks I do prefer the fresh h f well packaged and very fresh indeed ,no more sick bags for us at those silly prices .

[Joshuatree]

"Neww ‘DIY meal kit’ that can be used to grow steaks that are made mostly from human cells ... Called ‘Ouroboros Steak,’ this is named right after the circular symbol of a snake known for eating itself tail-first. This hypothetical kit would later on come with everything that one person would need in order to use their own cells to grow miniature human meat steaks …”

Times are a changinnnng......

[Getty]

"Neww ‘DIY meal kit’ that can be used to grow steaks that are made mostly from human cells ... Called ‘Ouroboros Steak,’ this is named right after the circular symbol of a snake known for eating itself tail-first. This hypothetical kit would later on come with everything that one person would need in order to use their own cells to grow miniature human meat steaks …”

Times are a changinnnng......

They know how to flesh out a story.

We could invite ourselves round home for dinner..

Hannibal will be impressed.

[percy]

They know how to flesh out a story.

We could invite ourselves round home for dinner..

Hannibal will be impressed.

I think I will just have a couple of puddings..!...lol

[stoploss]

"Neww ‘DIY meal kit’ that can be used to grow steaks that are made mostly from human cells ... Called ‘Ouroboros Steak,’ this is named right after the circular symbol of a snake known for eating itself tail-first. This hypothetical kit would later on come with everything that one person would need in order to use their own cells to grow miniature human meat steaks …”

Times are a changinnnng......
I think something like this is more of a threat
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/128192076/mealplanning-tech-entrepreneurs-aiming-to-displace-expensive-meal-kit-services

However the reason a lot of people purchase the MFB boxes etc is convenience and time saving .If you are on a nice cushy number contracting to the MOH @ $ 200
an hour .Why not spend another hour at work each day and buy a box. The instructions are there for the kids to cook it .
Everyone is a winner .......

[winner69]

In spite of omicron profit in line with what was said at IPO .... great effort

As they sale 'These unaudited results demonstrate My Food Bag’s continued track record of strong year-on-year
growth and delivery to forecast.'

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MFB/390291/368402.pdf

[winner69]

Full Year NPAT to be about $20m

Currently on PE of just over 10 .... seems pretty cheap

[huxley]

Full Year NPAT to be about $20m

Currently on PE of just over 10 .... seems pretty cheap

Buy at ten sell at twenty?

[shareman]

No way, this one's a dog, 50c here we come

[Sideshow Bob]

No way, this one's a dog, 50c here we come

I'm getting the feeling that you're not so keen on MFB Shareman....??

[shareman]

I still think its a **** company with little substance

[fungus pudding]

I think I will just have a couple of puddings..!...lol

Hey - go easy there!

[huxley]

It’s nothing but snowflake millennial nonsense eh shareman. The customer base are all young city slickers who never worked a day in their lives, much better to bulk buy meals at the supermarket. Meanwhile it’ll probably throw off ~$20m profits for years and pay out fully imputed dividends.

[RRR]

Nice rise today - but, I haven't finished buying yet:)

[nztx]

Darn .. just when tangible progress was happening on going down to explore the half buck level :)

the recipes had better be pretty good :)

[shareman]

It’s nothing but snowflake millennial nonsense eh shareman. The customer base are all young city slickers who never worked a day in their lives, much better to bulk buy meals at the supermarket. Meanwhile it’ll probably throw off ~$20m profits for years and pay out fully imputed dividends.

Haha, exactly !

[Arbroath]

It’s nothing but snowflake millennial nonsense eh shareman. The customer base are all young city slickers who never worked a day in their lives, much better to bulk buy meals at the supermarket. Meanwhile it’ll probably throw off ~$20m profits for years and pay out fully imputed dividends.

Has certainly melted back near the lows very easily...if it doesn't hold 85-90c area then its going to be bleak indeed...

[Baa_Baa]

Has certainly melted back near the lows very easily...if it doesn't hold 85-90c area then its going to be bleak indeed...

Chart suggests a long term channel down (https://invst.ly/xx5mi), confirmed again by the recent spike failing to break out above the channel. Indicators confirming the spike turnover and heading down. The spike was on high volume but the turnover and down has been average or lower volume suggesting traders taking profits and longs stuck like possums in the headlights. It took 263 trading days to lose 51% of its SP, the recent glimmer of promise is fizzling out pretty quickly. Agree 85-90 support looks critical.

[Muse]

Chart suggests a long term channel down (https://invst.ly/xx5mi), confirmed again by the recent spike failing to break out above the channel. Indicators confirming the spike turnover and heading down. The spike was on high volume but the turnover and down has been average or lower volume suggesting traders taking profits and longs stuck like possums in the headlights. It took 263 trading days to lose 51% of its SP, the recent glimmer of promise is fizzling out pretty quickly. Agree 85-90 support looks critical.

Jeesh - yikes!

[nztx]

The Baconiser's Div Yield is looking pretty attractive - or did that menu recently get trashed too ? ;)

[huxley]

TA aside, at the end of the day the SP will find support when it meets the fundamentals. I think the customer base are more sticky than maybe the general consensus.. but we’ll see.

[Shareguy]

After a lot of research I have decided that now is a good entry point into MFB. They have exceeded ipo forecasts with sales at $193m for ye22. Forecast npat of $20m or 8.38 cps which gives a tasty dividend of 7cps. A very attractive pe of 10.8 based on todays price of $.91. Net debt of $4m at 30/9/21 so I’m expecting will have no debt at year end. A cash generation business with no overdue debts.

Continued accumulation by Jarden and Milford plus a few insider purchases gives a degree of comfort. I’m expecting the addition of supplying grocery’s and further diversification into ready meals will add some growth going forward. The CEO has already stated they are looking for bolt on acquisitions and they have a clean balance sheet to do just that.

So after reading heaps on Marley spoon which is still unprofitable and the very successful hello fresh I’ve come to the conclusion that the current price is very attractive and have purchased a bag full today.

[Beagle]

Is it finally time to take the promotors advice and 'Tuck In" ?

Brought up the chart since it listed. Basically a steady downtrend all the way with some very early emerging evidence that this is trying to build a base at around 90 cents but its very, very early days from a TA perspective to say a base has been built. 100 day MA is just on $1.07

A prudent approach in my opinion remains to wait and confirm a base has been built and for a new uptrend to be confirmed by a break up through the 100 day MA.

I can't help feel that the lockdown's have tremendously helpful for MFB and then with Omricon this is still providing them with ongoing tailwinds of a really meaningful nature. Once those tailwinds subside I think there's potential for this to be significantly less profitable so any attempt to justify investment based on current year metrics appears very risky so both TA and FA tell me to stay away !

[Master98]

this FY is done deal, next year or two outlook is crucial, it is safe to wait and see.

[RRR]

After a lot of research I have decided that now is a good entry point into MFB. They have exceeded ipo forecasts with sales at $193m for ye22. Forecast npat of $20m or 8.38 cps which gives a tasty dividend of 7cps. A very attractive pe of 10.8 based on todays price of $.91. Net debt of $4m at 30/9/21 so I’m expecting will have no debt at year end. A cash generation business with no overdue debts.

Continued accumulation by Jarden and Milford plus a few insider purchases gives a degree of comfort. I’m expecting the addition of supplying grocery’s and further diversification into ready meals will add some growth going forward. The CEO has already stated they are looking for bolt on acquisitions and they have a clean balance sheet to do just that.

So after reading heaps on Marley spoon which is still unprofitable and the very successful hello fresh I’ve come to the conclusion that the current price is very attractive and have purchased a bag full today.

I agree with you :t_up::t_up:
I also bought more today
4 cents div coming soon

[Shareguy]

Thought this report was interesting

https://linchpinseo.com/trends-shaping-the-meal-kit-industry/

[Sampan]

Is it finally time to take the promotors advice and 'Tuck In" ?

Brought up the chart since it listed. Basically a steady downtrend all the way with some very early emerging evidence that this is trying to build a base at around 90 cents but its very, very early days from a TA perspective to say a base has been built. 100 day MA is just on $1.07

A prudent approach in my opinion remains to wait and confirm a base has been built and for a new uptrend to be confirmed by a break up through the 100 day MA.

I can't help feel that the lockdown's have tremendously helpful for MFB and then with Omricon this is still providing them with ongoing tailwinds of a really meaningful nature. Once those tailwinds subside I think there's potential for this to be significantly less profitable so any attempt to justify investment based on current year metrics appears very risky so both TA and FA tell me to stay away !

I agree with this completely. When the mortgage rates bite, which they will, this is the first thing that will be scrubbed from the family budget alongside movies and the like. Sadly, the headwinds we are facing also signal another blow to the under pressure hospo industry also. But back to MFB - they also will struggle to pass on the increase in input costs therefore decreasing margins even further. Yes, the metrics over the past year look ok compared to IPO projections but the upcoming 12 months has many more headwinds and no prospect of any covid related sugar rush for companies such as this. At 50 cents, ill be interested

[stoploss]

I agree with this completely. When the mortgage rates bite, which they will, this is the first thing that will be scrubbed from the family budget alongside movies and the like. Sadly, the headwinds we are facing also signal another blow to the under pressure hospo industry also. But back to MFB - they also will struggle to pass on the increase in input costs therefore decreasing margins even further. Yes, the metrics over the past year look ok compared to IPO projections but the upcoming 12 months has many more headwinds and no prospect of any covid related sugar rush for companies such as this. At 50 cents, ill be interested
There are two sides to this coin. Parents under pressure working some extra hours .... easier to work an extra couple of hours a day that's say $ 300 a week.
If they have to drop half of that on a Food Bag so be it, but they will be time poor and the kids can follow the recipes really easily .

[Sampan]

There are two sides to this coin. Parents under pressure working some extra hours .... easier to work an extra couple of hours a day that's say $ 300 a week.
If they have to drop half of that on a Food Bag so be it, but they will be time poor and the kids can follow the recipes really easily .

I can see your point but that extra $300/week will be swallowed by increased mortgage costs (on an $800k mortgage increased interest will be around $1300/month) and other inflationary pressures such as fuel and the like. There is no way out of this for many.....the mortgage and fuel will always be paid first

[Beagle]

I can see your point but that extra $300/week will be swallowed by increased mortgage costs (on an $800k mortgage increased interest will be around $1300/month) and other inflationary pressures such as fuel and the like. There is no way out of this for many.....the mortgage and fuel will always be paid first

WOW...when you put it like that its clear some customers are going to come under really intense pressure. Netflix reported this morning (our time) and expects to lose 2 million subscribers in the next quarter as consumers feel the pinch. Their shares went into freefall, down 42% year to date and another whopping 22% this morning, last time I looked on CNBC. Sign of the times and a lead indicator for what might happen to MFB ?

[Sampan]

Exactly Beagle. Discretionary spending is going to be seriously impacted but it wont filter through till about June/July. The silver lining is that the landing will be hard so mortgage rates may well be moving back lower in 2023.

[Beagle]

Exactly Beagle. Discretionary spending is going to be seriously impacted but it wont filter through till about June/July. The silver lining is that the landing will be hard so mortgage rates may well be moving back lower in 2023.

Agreed. Orr is so far behind the inflation curve he has no choice but to slam the brakes on hard and send us into recession. House price correction and consumer discretionary spending retrenchment has only just started and has a LONG way to go.