CNU - Chorus [Archive] - Page 7

arc

11-12-2013, 11:57 AM

Interesting.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11170733&ref=rss

When added with the comments made by JBWere's to "Lower your NZ exposure, to all NZ securities"

From my experience when a company uses words like "find ways to address a funding gap", the result is commonly a significant decrease in the quality of materials used to finish/complete the job.

There is more than one type of fibre cable, some are high bandwidth, same are medium, some are low
There is more than one make/model of Fibre Router. Some are industrial grade high volume devices, some... are not
There are other "devices" required to be placed inside each Telephone Exchange where the fibre terminates... again they are either quality/ or not

This whole thing is turning into a joke, and its backfired on us the public.

Hoop

11-12-2013, 12:18 PM

Interesting.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11170733&ref=rss

When added with the comments made by JBWere's to "Lower your NZ exposure, to all NZ securities"

Sue Sheldons comments ..advertising via media to the world' investors that NZ investment reputation is tarnished will not win her any friends in high places.... nor from NZ corporate.....I suspect she will activate damage control when her Xmas Cards fail to arrive in the mail....

Balance

11-12-2013, 12:18 PM

Interesting.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11170733&ref=rss

When added with the comments made by JBWere's to "Lower your NZ exposure, to all NZ securities"

Of course the silly cow (who has presided over horrendous costs over-runs and delays) is now trying to shift the blame to others.

DO YOUR JOB, WOMAN!

As one NBR poster summarised :

"Is Chorus NZ's worst managed and worst-governed company?

Methinks they take both prizes, exceeding even the old finance companies, the old Air NZ under private ownership, Feltex, the old Telecom - jeez the list of contenders goes on and on.

Not sure why Chorus shareholders are not demanding change in directors and senior management, who cannot run a company - a regulated monopoly! - for the benefit of shareholders."

Xerof

11-12-2013, 01:00 PM

Seemed quite straightforward to me

no dividends, a rights issue, and a degradation of service to cut costs

and everyone elses fault - commcomm and Labour/greens

Hoop

11-12-2013, 01:25 PM

Seemed quite straightforward to me

no dividends, a rights issue, and a degradation of service to cut costs

and everyone elses fault - commcomm and Labour/greens

Yep...That will do Xerof.........but you forgot to add performance bonuses for top management

Bobcat.

11-12-2013, 01:35 PM

Yep...That will do Xerof.........but you forgot to add performance bonuses for top management

...and Government putting some sweetners into the CNU/CFH contract variation so as (to be seen to) recover some integrity in the NZ investment environment, without having to intervene by way of limited ownership or legislation. Key and his sidekicks will need to walk the tightrope on this one.

peat

11-12-2013, 03:07 PM

Sue Sheldons comments ..advertising via media to the world' investors that NZ investment reputation is tarnished will not win her any friends in high places.... nor from NZ corporate.....I suspect she will activate damage control when her Xmas Cards fail to arrive in the mail....
I guess she's just batting for her team like anyone would and in any case she's already in high places - on the boards of RBNZ, Contact, Freightways, Paymark.

A very staunch negotiator in my experience.

Bobcat.

11-12-2013, 06:29 PM

A very staunch negotiator in my experience.

It will interesting to see then how well she and her underlings negotiate the upcoming contract variation with CFH...Chorus's future may well depend on it.

On paper, CNU's negotiating position is not very strong and so their personal persuasiveness will need to compensate.

Stu

11-12-2013, 06:29 PM

Of course the silly cow (who has presided over horrendous costs over-runs and delays) is now trying to shift the blame to others.

DO YOUR JOB, WOMAN!

As one NBR poster summarised :

"Is Chorus NZ's worst managed and worst-governed company?

Methinks they take both prizes, exceeding even the old finance companies, the old Air NZ under private ownership, Feltex, the old Telecom - jeez the list of contenders goes on and on.

Not sure why Chorus shareholders are not demanding change in directors and senior management, who cannot run a company - a regulated monopoly! - for the benefit of shareholders."

Balance kicks off with a misogynistic slur and finishes it off quoting from a random bloke (who may or may not be Balance) posting anonymously on NBR.
Consistent at least.

couta1

11-12-2013, 06:59 PM

Spoke to a guy who works for chorus today, he reckons the whole thing will end up getting retendered down the track, imagine if?

Major von Tempsky

11-12-2013, 08:23 PM

ddrone

12-12-2013, 11:00 AM

Chorus is having a fairly good day today, big trades going through and depth looking good for a jump on retail investors.

Balance

12-12-2013, 04:19 PM

I suggest that Balance try actually reading the 2 letters/releases made by Chorus today and remove his invalid comments.
I would further suggest that Hoop hasn't made any friends or distinguished himself with his comments above. It would seem he needs to stick to "technical analysis"....
A brief tap on the old memory bank reveals (a) a major credit agency that stated it was thinking of lowering NZ's credit rating due to regulatory problems (the electricity sector and Chorus immediately spring to mind) and an overseas fund so burnt that it said that investing in NZ is worse than investing in Pakistan.
Similarly a brief look at the 2 Chorus releases yesterday, and at a previous release, says that Chorus has put down its fibre on time and on budget.

Yet people persist in these stupid propaganda statements -.....presumably they are the usual maladjusted crew who (a) belong to the Labour Party (b) belong to that twisted group TUANZ who in fact don't actually want to speed up fibre availability but do want to attack the government as in (a) (c) the usual suspects who have spouses/sons/daughters/relatives/friends/lovers working for one of the opposition companies...

MVT, my personal experience dealing with Chorus is that it is a grossly inefficient company.

To make matters worse, I can tell you that the crews hired by Chorus to lay the UFB are as bad as can be - three people doing the work of one. One crew member who complained about attitudes at work was blackballed, complained to HR and had to quit as no action was taken.

From personal experiences like that are the big picture made of a grossly mismanaged company - Teresa Gattung #2.

PS. I ain't no a, b or c above - just a very pissed off customer of Chorus.

klid

12-12-2013, 04:41 PM

clip

12-12-2013, 04:51 PM

Sorry to hear about your experience, Balance.

Interesting news on NBR:
Why Milford thinks Chorus has hit rock bottom - and it's snapping up shares
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/why-milford-thinks-chorus-has-hit-rock-bottom-and-its-buying-dw-p-149995

are you able to copy/paste any pertinent exerts or the article for those of us who don't have a login? says 'you must be logged on to read'

andysh

12-12-2013, 05:03 PM

It's not word for word the NBR article but similar:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11171494&ref=rss

winner69

12-12-2013, 05:03 PM

Prob same story for free
http://www.interest.co.nz/business/67799/chorus-maximum-point-uncertainty-says-milford-asset-managements-mark-warminger-who-ne

winner69

12-12-2013, 05:06 PM

So mark essentially says CNU is a dog ........but a deep value play.....so lets gamble with others money.

clip

12-12-2013, 05:23 PM

thanks guys, haven't had a chance to read news today just a quick peek on here now and then! :)

couta1

12-12-2013, 05:30 PM

So mark essentially says CNU is a dog ........but a deep value play.....so lets gamble with others money.
Gamble is right you'd probably be better off buying the same value in lotto tickets or scratches for the chance of more return, even if this dog starts barking again is there any guarantee that a future Government won't give it a bark collar to wear.

Balance

12-12-2013, 05:34 PM

So mark essentially says CNU is a dog ........but a deep value play.....so lets gamble with others money.

A bit harsh, W69, as I think Milford does take pride on their performance.

What I take issue with is that Milford has obviously got set, and now is broadcasting the fact to get others to now buy the stock.

Anyone in NZX or FMA monitoring is they are talking it up, and then selling?

biker

12-12-2013, 05:52 PM

Well, it's all pretty negative news on CNU at the moment and even more negative sentiment. I think there may be a bounce not far away and I'm buying at 1.32. They may well go lower but the market is so sour on this stock, I think the prospect is now more on the upside. The risk/ reward equation is rapidly changing IMO.

Disc. Now hold quite a few so I'm biased

Good to see a fund manager sees it the same way and the share price touch 1.40 today

luigi

12-12-2013, 05:54 PM

Original blog here btw:
http://www.milfordasset.com/chorus-maximum-uncertainty/

BIRMANBOY

12-12-2013, 06:13 PM

Moosie what's the issue....if the FMA challenged every person /org that talked up or down a share or told everybody what they had been doing...they'd have to be visiting every person (and you three times) on this forum:ohmy:. its not like its insider trading.
These guys are getting pretty ballsy with their announcong every buy/sell they do. Must be plays out of the Rod Drury/John Key book. They know the FMA/NZX will do sweet f all of a sparrow fart about any of this.

Balance

12-12-2013, 06:14 PM

Harvey Specter

12-12-2013, 06:19 PM

MVT, my personal experience dealing with Chorus is that it is a grossly inefficient company.

To make matters worse, I can tell you that the crews hired by Chorus to lay the UFB are as bad as can be - three people doing the work of one. One crew member who complained about attitudes at work was blackballed, complained to HR and had to quit as no action was taken.

From personal experiences like that are the big picture made of a grossly mismanaged company - Teresa Gattung #2.

PS. I ain't no a, b or c above - just a very pissed off customer of Chorus.
In the long term, they don't care about the install cost as it just gets added to the regulated asset base.

Balance

12-12-2013, 06:22 PM

In the long term, they don't care about the install cost as it just gets added to the regulated asset base.

I think you are right and that's where it's all wrong.

Reminds me of the good old days in NZ when there was import and price controls. Anybody with an import licence was guaranteed to make money.

But as many found, controls can be removed or introduced by a stroke of the pen.

That's where Chorus has got caught.

couta1

12-12-2013, 06:53 PM

Good to see a fund manager sees it the same way and the share price touch 1.40 today
I can't see why people get excited if it hits 1.40 in my opinion it needs to go back over $2 to show any significant meaningful change unless your a trader I guess, this things had 2 big roller coaster dips in the last 6 months, it can easily take a 3rd with any more political interference in the future fleecing a new group of suckers in as long term holders

Stu

12-12-2013, 08:00 PM

MVT, my personal experience dealing with Chorus is that it is a grossly inefficient company.

To make matters worse, I can tell you that the crews hired by Chorus to lay the UFB are as bad as can be - three people doing the work of one. One crew member who complained about attitudes at work was blackballed, complained to HR and had to quit as no action was taken.

To be fair, Balance is always quick to criticize and ridicule health and safety and best practice and any compliance with regulations, and anyone who complains that work isn't progressing at full pace and inhibiting bonuses and profits is considered a hero and a martyr.
Until a mine blows up of course, then he's straight to the head of the lynch mob with his pitchfork and flaming torch calling for someone to be tortured and then burnt at the stake.
Good ol' Balance eh?

Stu

12-12-2013, 08:00 PM

MVT, my personal experience dealing with Chorus is that it is a grossly inefficient company.

To make matters worse, I can tell you that the crews hired by Chorus to lay the UFB are as bad as can be - three people doing the work of one. One crew member who complained about attitudes at work was blackballed, complained to HR and had to quit as no action was taken.

To be fair, Balance is always quick to criticize and ridicule health and safety and best practice and any compliance with regulations, and anyone who complains that work isn't progressing at full pace and inhibiting bonuses and profits is considered a hero and a martyr.
Until a mine blows up of course, then he's straight to the head of the lynch mob with his pitchfork and flaming torch calling for someone to be tortured and then burnt at the stake.
Good ol' Balance eh?

Balance

12-12-2013, 08:21 PM

To be fair, Balance is always quick to criticize and ridicule health and safety and best practice and any compliance with regulations, and anyone who complains that work isn't progressing at full pace and inhibiting bonuses and profits is considered a hero and a martyr.
Until a mine blows up of course, then he's straight to the head of the lynch mob with his pitchfork and flaming torch calling for someone to be tortured and then burnt at the stake.
Good ol' Balance eh?

Some people bring enlightenment and knowledge wherever they go; you basically bring enlightenment whenever you go. :D

winner69

13-12-2013, 07:01 AM

I can't see why people get excited if it hits 1.40 in my opinion it needs to go back over $2 to show any significant meaningful change unless your a trader I guess, this things had 2 big roller coaster dips in the last 6 months, it can easily take a 3rd with any more political interference in the future fleecing a new group of suckers in as long term holders

That Mike fellow on the radio this morning touting 2 bucks sometime soon .....and we bought 9 million (think that what he said) of them cheap

waikare

13-12-2013, 07:17 AM

That Mike fellow on the radio this morning touting 2 bucks sometime soon .....and we bought 9 million (think that what he said) of them cheap

I take it you are referring to Radio NZ, it was Milford Assets that has recently purchased 9 million shares for several of the funds at average price of $1.40.

macduffy

13-12-2013, 08:07 AM

So now they have 9m shares to sell? Once they have talked the market up to $2, of course!

;)

couta1

13-12-2013, 08:39 AM

So now they have 9m shares to sell? Once they have talked the market up to $2
;)
They must be hopeing for an early Christmas present, hopefully the markets not that stupid?

Balance

13-12-2013, 09:19 AM

Classic Milford. Buy, tell the market, ramp. I expect the FMA will do sweet f all and that they will be buying DIL again soon. unethical as f***...

As long as it's not a ramp and dump, I think it's okay.

Overseas, that's what the likes of even Buffett do - invest in a company and then, tell the market why.

George Soros used to short currencies, tell the whole world why so that the herd charged in behind him and allowed him to make a killing.

nextbigthing

13-12-2013, 09:25 AM

Classic Milford. Buy, tell the market, ramp. I expect the FMA will do sweet f all and that they will be buying DIL again soon. unethical as f***...

Jump on for the ride and get off at the last stop before Milford, $1.99

Balance

13-12-2013, 09:34 AM

Jump on for the ride and get off at the last stop before Milford, $1.99

Looks like many now jumping on for the ride. Price could open up above $1.40 this morning.

I prefer to know what instos and fund managers are up to rather than not.

Nicer if I know beforehand what they are buying or selling though!

False Profit

13-12-2013, 09:34 AM

Looks like the opening price will be post 144c. Buyers lining up.

Edit....ok $148...

Balance

13-12-2013, 09:53 AM

Amazing herd mwntality going on right now. it was oversold, but why such a huge bounce today and not the pasr few days? oh, thats right, Milford is pumping it now! everybody, buy buy buy!!!!!

Moose, definition of pumping in stockbroking terminology means 'pump and dump'.

Do be careful.

We do not want Milford to have Moose meat for dinner!

biker

13-12-2013, 09:56 AM

Has this been posted??? The link to the Radio NZ interview with the Milford guy:
http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/businessnews/audio/2579713/business-news-update

Missed it this morning so thanks turmeric

Harvey Specter

13-12-2013, 10:16 AM

Moose, definition of pumping in stockbroking terminology means 'pump and dump'.

Do be careful.

We do not want Milford to have Moose meat for dinner!They are merely "talking their own book". is that allowed to be said?

I thank them anyway. I averaged down at 1.32 for the same reason Milford started buying - negative news all factored in. I just wish I had sold my original holding on the way down.

Harvey Specter

13-12-2013, 10:25 AM

Dont make the same mistake here then. sell the bounce and dont live in hope comcom will be overturned!yep - monitoring it more closely this time.

peat

13-12-2013, 10:26 AM

Some people bring enlightenment and knowledge wherever they go; you basically bring enlightenment whenever you go. :D

ice burn from Bal.

ddrone

13-12-2013, 10:31 AM

In at 1.34 yesterday, out at 1.51 today. Good morning.

Mista_Trix

13-12-2013, 10:36 AM

In at 1.34 yesterday, out at 1.51 today. Good morning.

I wonder where it will settle, good support at 1.40, but the momentum of news may push it higher ..??!?!

bull....

13-12-2013, 10:37 AM

In at 1.34 yesterday, out at 1.51 today. Good morning.

yea out this morning to, thx milford

Balance

13-12-2013, 10:42 AM

buyers already falling away. still plenty of overseas selling to go, hope no one bought the hype!

Better hype than Snakk at 15c, Moose?

False Profit

13-12-2013, 10:53 AM

I expect a few investors will have gotten stung by this morning's caper. Glad to say I wasn't one of them. Nearly, though...

Balance

13-12-2013, 10:57 AM

I expect a few investors will have gotten stung by this morning's caper. Glad to say I wasn't one of them. Nearly, though...

Not as badly stung as those who bought at $2.00 - when many thought John Key would intervene.

Plus, the real sting or tequila shot will be next week after the PWC report is released and government acts.

Could see $2.00 or could see $1.30 again.

JAYAY

13-12-2013, 11:00 AM

In at 1.34 yesterday, out at 1.51 today. Good morning.

You will be including your profits in your income tax return of course???

ddrone

13-12-2013, 11:10 AM

You will be including your profits in your income tax return of course???

Yes thank you Mr Commissioner. I know more about tax than many in these gambling halls. Carry on.

Mista_Trix

13-12-2013, 11:48 AM

Buyers still moving up to meet sellers. Where will she settle

Balance

13-12-2013, 11:55 AM

Buyers still moving up to meet sellers. Where will she settle

It fell like a lead balloon - now it may float like a helium balloon?

Mista_Trix

13-12-2013, 12:55 PM

Buyers still moving up to meet sellers. Where will she settle

Its as if right when I said it everything moved, classic :-S

couta1

13-12-2013, 07:08 PM

Not as badly stung as those who bought at $2.00 - when many thought John Key would intervene.

Plus, the real sting or tequila shot will be next week after the PWC report is released and government acts.

Could see $2.00 or could see $1.30 again.
Still the PWC report doesn't answer the question of whether there will be any dividends or not and any real Govt action could still be along way off, I hope people don't get sucked in with any more false Govt promises like we will override the comcom etc, in many ways I'd like to see CNU lose the contract and see it retendered and then we would see the true value of Chorus as a company

couta1

13-12-2013, 07:36 PM

clip

13-12-2013, 07:55 PM

Off course the other point is that both ACC and Milford can afford to gamble as they have nothing to lose after all the money they are using doesn't belong to them and in ACCs case it belongs to all of us on this forum

And they are probably up 20%+ over the past year and have a bit of profit to use for more risky trades maybe! not actually sure i haven't seen figures but my friend has his kiwisaver in their growth fund and it's been performing very well

macduffy

13-12-2013, 07:56 PM

Off course the other point is that both ACC and Milford can afford to gamble as they have nothing to lose after all the money they are using doesn't belong to them and in ACCs case it belongs to all of us on this forum

Hardly!

In Milford's case, a major "mishap" would have consequences for their business and reputation. Losing business means losing fees!

couta1

13-12-2013, 08:03 PM

Hardly!

In Milford's case, a major "mishap" would have consequences for their business and reputation. Losing business means losing fees!
I suppose that applies to their investment in the likes of MOA as well aye

macduffy

13-12-2013, 08:27 PM

I suppose that applies to their investment in the likes of MOA as well aye

We all know that we lose as well as win, but for a funds manager, too many (big) losses aint good for business! Hardly a matter of " nothing to lose"!

couta1

13-12-2013, 08:43 PM

We all know that we lose as well as win, but for a funds manager, too many (big) losses aint good for business! Hardly a matter of " nothing to lose"!
I don't think you can compare a personal loss earned by the sweat of your brow with a fund managers loss it's like comparing breaking up with your girlfriend when your 16 and a marriage breakup of 20 years duration involving children. Milford are unlikely to lose as they probably know when to get out but others will following their ramping up style using the media, I think it's unethical and wrong, if they think they are onto a winner why don't they keep it to themselves, of course the answer to that is they won't gain as much if they haven't got others to buy in on hype and push the share price up for them

biker

13-12-2013, 10:07 PM

Off course the other point is that both ACC and Milford can afford to gamble as they have nothing to lose after all the money they are using doesn't belong to them and in ACCs case it belongs to all of us on this forum

I think Milford and ACC have read this one very well. The stock price got so low they saw there was money to be made. Milford apparently sold out at well over $3 due to regulatory risk and have bought back in with a considerable amount of the risk shaken out of the price.
Seems to make good sense to me and far from being a gamble looks more like a very astute investment move, selling high and buying low.
A good indication on this site of when to buy was when several posters were declaring that they would definitely be buying at .99, 1.01 and $1.

janner

13-12-2013, 11:07 PM

Think that you are on the money there biker !!..

Another falling knife eh !!..

Once again I am caught with limited funds..

Happy to say that ALL of my holdings have only been dropping and rising a cent either way during this small shake out.

Will be in though.. With what is available ..

macduffy

14-12-2013, 08:20 AM

I don't think you can compare a personal loss earned by the sweat of your brow with a fund managers loss it's like comparing breaking up with your girlfriend when your 16 and a marriage breakup of 20 years duration involving children. Milford are unlikely to lose as they probably know when to get out but others will following their ramping up style using the media, I think it's unethical and wrong, if they think they are onto a winner why don't they keep it to themselves, of course the answer to that is they won't gain as much if they haven't got others to buy in on hype and push the share price up for them

Drifting off the point here.

All I was saying was that Milford don't invest with "nothing to lose".

:)

couta1

14-12-2013, 09:26 AM

Milford might have ... out and back in ... ACC not - they're averaging down and must be sitting on a huge loss.
Very perceptive and I wondered why ACC had only purchased 500k shares didn't seem a lot for them but makes sense if averaging down on a large holding

warthog

14-12-2013, 09:55 AM

Very perceptive and I wondered why ACC had only purchased 500k shares didn't seem a lot for them but makes sense if averaging down on a large holding

You are making an assumption (perhaps one worthy of making, but an assumption nonetheless) that CNU isn't a knife that is still falling.

BlackPeter

14-12-2013, 10:19 AM

Interesting article on NBR:

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/chorus-who-wins-and-who-loses-weekend-review-ng-150051

Great opportunity so far for all major political parties to demonstrate their economical incompetence. Labour and Greens as matter of course, but National doesn't comes out smelling like roses either.

Basically everybody in New Zealand is in one way or another suffering from the mess our politicians created. Many are (at least indirect) CNU shareholders (remember your Kiwi saver account) and everybody needs to use telephone and data services.

The interesting question now is - is there anything our major parties can do to tidy up this mess?

winner69

14-12-2013, 10:35 AM

Newman

14-12-2013, 04:13 PM

Has anyone got EY's final report? The link to the report at NBR site does not work.

winner69

14-12-2013, 04:23 PM

Has anyone got EY's final report? The link to the report at NBR site does not work.

Worked for me
http://chriskeall.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/121213_ey-independent-assessment-of-chorus_report.pdf

Looks pretty long and detailed

I expect you to red it thoroughly and report back in an unemotional balanced way by 8am tomorrow.

While you do that we do more fun things

BlackPeter

14-12-2013, 04:25 PM

Try

http://chriskeall.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/121213_ey-independent-assessment-of-chorus_report.pdf

... works for me.

winner69

14-12-2013, 04:29 PM

BlackPeter looks keena s well .... we expect your unemotional balanced report back by 8am tomorrow as well

couta1

14-12-2013, 04:48 PM

So the EY report recommends slashing dividend payouts by $290 million, yep that works out at 3 yrs without a dividend and a much lower dividend after that one would think, crack open another Tua boys

couta1

14-12-2013, 04:49 PM

So the EY report recommends slashing dividend payouts by $290 million, yep that works out at 3 yrs without a dividend and a much lower dividend after that one would think, crack open another Tua boys
I mean Tui but Tua may be just the man for Chorus

Harvey Specter

14-12-2013, 06:06 PM

I think they should go Nuclear. They only have to provide dial up speed at the regulated price - that will shut up the copper tax supporters.

Jim

14-12-2013, 09:36 PM

I think they should go Nuclear. They only have to provide dial up speed at the regulated price - that will shut up the copper tax supporters.

I strongly agree with you. Pay peanuts you get monkeys lol

couta1

14-12-2013, 11:01 PM

I can't see anything in this report that's going to advance the share price, it will depend on the outcome of discussions between CNU and CFH, dividend guidance for the next few years and ultimately the result of the FPP exercise plus any possible wildcard the Govt may be able to play but unlikely to get away with, if the Govt showed the same Grit and Determination here that its showing toward completing its asset sales programme we wouldn't be where we are now, everything still as uncertain and possibly more ammo for the splinter groups to use now to make sure Chorus uses every cent of its own money before getting any form of assistance

kiwi_on_OE

15-12-2013, 05:20 AM

I think they should go Nuclear. They only have to provide dial up speed at the regulated price - that will shut up the copper tax supporters.

What would be the consequences of going nuclear? Are you suggesting that all users on UBA would accept having their broadband downgraded accordingly (ignoring those still on dial-up, cable or UCLL(unbundled))? They wouldn't look at alternatives? What are the alternatives? Might it be that there is a massive move away from UBA to UCLL with broadband competitors installing their own hardware in the exchanges/cabinets (or whereever) to get decent speeds for customers? Consequence could be that Chorus would lose all of their UBA revenue ie. $280m pa. not just the $140m pa. they're complaining about? And all of the hardware they installed to provide the 1.1m UBA connections would be dumped? Presumably that would be worth/cost $1b?

If the UBA business is as bad as Chorus suggest they should either be writing it down in their accounts, or looking to sell it. There are a number of broadband providers, they would probably be interested in the business, and we'd find out what the market values a UBA connection at. Hey presto, no need for CommComm to regulate it.

It would be interesting to see what value other parties put on the Chorus UBA business. EBITDA for the next 12mths of $300m, and $140m pa after that for seven years, with some business after that. No need to worry about losing business to UFB as Chorus have stated the impact on them will be a loss of revenue of $1b over seven years ie. $140m pa., so they don't think they're losing any business/customers to UFB.

I don't have any sympathy for Chorus. I might have had some sympathy for them if they appeared to have half a brain, perhaps they did once upon a time, but they obviously misplaced it when they had their head buried in the sand. Seems like that moaning BNY Mellon fund manager lost his brain in the same way. How anyone could've thought that changes weren't going to happen is beyond me.

winner69

15-12-2013, 06:14 AM

One little piece of info in the ey report appendices that competitors prob use is -

- In FY13 Chorus’ return on equity was 29.7% which is significantly higher than other infrastructure businesses which averaged 12.5%

- Chorus’ FY13 dividend yield (based on its share price at 30 June 2013) was 10.7% compared to the average dividend yield for New Zealand infrastructure companies of 4.3% and 6.7% for Australian peers.

All points to a debt heavy balance sheet ....and to think they needed to increase debt to fund recent dividends ....it all don't make sense

fish

15-12-2013, 07:03 AM

what is happening doesn't make sense for anyone.
Uncertainty is bad for everyone.
A reduction in copper price was expected and therefore a big reduction in dividend was also expected.
The government told com com what price was expected.
This was ignored.
What is going to happen next December?
Will chorus throttle back copper?
Will the courts /government intervene and allow a reasonable solution where everyone becomes a winner-I hope so.
This is too important for a reasonable solution not to be found soon

Harvey Specter

15-12-2013, 08:26 AM

What would be the consequences of going nuclear? Are you suggesting that all users on UBA would accept having their broadband downgraded accordingly (ignoring those still on dial-up, cable or UCLL(unbundled))? They wouldn't look at alternatives? What are the alternatives?
The alternative would be for the telco's, if requested by their customers, to pay an extra $10 to get fast broadband, putting the price back to (low and behold) what we have now.

THat will also move people to fibre quicker as if you are paying an extra $10, would you want ADSL or fiber??

bull....

15-12-2013, 09:28 AM

EY report just confirms chorus got a funding shortfall. what we all new anyway

In the mean time what is chorus its not a growth company, its not a income company aha it must only be a high risk company that we can all buy today in the hope one day in the next 10yrs we will get a return on our investment while all the time hoping they dont have more cost over-runs, regulation issues, political interference etc......

My money prefers stocks where I get a reasonable predictable return not having my money locked in an investment where I get no dividend or growth in capital.

couta1

15-12-2013, 10:31 AM

kiwi_on_OE

16-12-2013, 12:03 AM

EY report just confirms chorus got a funding shortfall. what we all new anyway

Not quite, EY accepted the $1B figure from Chorus, they didn't verify it. Probably not in their terms of reference, but does make it seem like they only did half a job.

For Chorus to have their '$1B shortfall' requires that all customers on UBA stay on there, and there is no migration to any alternative product eg. UFB.

couta1

16-12-2013, 08:21 AM

Paul Brislen calling for 7 year dividend holiday in today's Herald,overall the report not good news for Chorus will expect share price to drop again this week

JAYAY

16-12-2013, 09:08 AM

Paul Brislen calling for 7 year dividend holiday in today's Herald,overall the report not good news for Chorus will expect share price to drop again this week

Paul Brislen has done enough damage already. What is he trying to achieve now. Just remember he is working for the benefit of the ISP's not the consumer. Paul Brislen is pretty extreme.

Mista_Trix

16-12-2013, 09:28 AM

Paul Brislen calling for 7 year dividend holiday in today's Herald,overall the report not good news for Chorus will expect share price to drop again this week

I'm not so certain, what hasn't already been priced in?
It dropped on news of chaos, that at the very least seems obvious, what else will now make it move??

It may become a traders share (though support at $1.47, $1.44 and $1.40), but I don't see massive drops moving around. The result of the EY report seemed likely, surely this was already in there?

bull....

16-12-2013, 09:31 AM

Paul Brislen has done enough damage already. What is he trying to achieve now. Just remember he is working for the benefit of the ISP's not the consumer. Paul Brislen is pretty extreme.

lol yea for a supposed consumer org he spends a lot of time trying to tell chorus how they should run there business, instead shouldnt he be after the isp's to pass on there copper tax to the consumer?

Harvey Specter

16-12-2013, 09:31 AM

Paul Brislen calling for 7 year dividend holiday in today's Herald,overall the report not good news for Chorus will expect share price to drop again this weekI personally dont think there was anything new in the report and the government could have saved $100k by asking Chorus what options it had. If the best they can come up with cost cutting which may effect service or reduce dividends which may effect required capital raising (that $200m shortfall needs to come from somewhere), then they were scraping the barrel.

Having said that, the market is fickle, and it isn't positive news (though we already knew it all anyway so is it really news), so it probably will go down. Buying opportunity for Milford or have they hit their limit?

KiwiGreen

16-12-2013, 09:43 AM

biker

16-12-2013, 09:44 AM

The short term share price now depends on how good Chorus are at negotiating with CFH. If they can come away with some tangible positive changes to the contract amongst other things, then the share price obviously has a way to go yet ( IMO). If not, then current levels may remain for a while.
Cant see why the EY report and Brislen's dribble should cause a significant drop today.

Disc. Hold quite a few and keeping an eye on the exit.

Harvey Specter

16-12-2013, 09:49 AM

Anyone done a dividend discount model for Chorus? First time I've done one, seems very simple but just want to check my accuracy.

In line with the EY report I've forecast no divi for 2014 or 15, then 12.75c from 2016 to 2020. Then 25c from 2021 on wards in perpetuity (not mentioned in report) growing at 2.5% pa. Used a discount rate of 10% and got a current value (SP) of NZ$2.11.

Feedback appreciated.Questions rather than feedback:

- Does your model account for imputation credits. As a solely NZ company, their dividends should be fully imputed.
- why did you choose 25c from 2021. How much does a lower figure of say 20c impact the valuation.

couta1

16-12-2013, 09:50 AM

Anyone done a dividend discount model for Chorus? First time I've done one, seems very simple but just want to check my accuracy.

In line with the EY report I've forecast no divi for 2014 or 15, then 12.75c from 2016 to 2020. Then 25c from 2021 on wards in perpetuity (not mentioned in report) growing at 2.5% pa. Used a discount rate of 10% and got a current value (SP) of NZ$2.11.

Feedback appreciated.
Complete guesswork,will there be a dividend from 2016-2020?

warthog

16-12-2013, 09:51 AM

lol yea for a supposed consumer org he spends a lot of time trying to tell chorus how they should run there business, instead shouldnt he be after the isp's to pass on there copper tax to the consumer?

Bull hasn't been paying attention.

Brislen used to work for Vodafone. The hog would wager he's got a few clues from that experience. Both from a telco perspective, and an NZ ISP perspective.

Also, Brislen understands (does Bull?) that the future of NZ has as a prerequisite a fast fibre-based network, not copper.

warthog

16-12-2013, 09:52 AM

Can "investors" truly say that they are in CNU for the dividends now?

croesus

16-12-2013, 09:57 AM

Obviously not...

Mista_Trix

16-12-2013, 09:59 AM

Complete guesswork,will there be a dividend from 2016-2020?

A two year div holiday was one of the proposed EY solutions, one could assume he's calculating value based on the options available to CNU...

couta1

16-12-2013, 10:09 AM

Can "investors" truly say that they are in CNU for the dividends now?
So it's basically a traders stock, personally I'm too scared to even trade this mongrel,would love to have a go at getting some of my money back but it's hard to step back into a fire with 3rd degree burns

bull....

16-12-2013, 10:09 AM

hey warthog, it was merely an observation from what i read in the newspapers but since you mentioned some things about him i had a look i see he was a communications man at vodaphone so i guess that sort of makes him a expert on spin. enough said back to the company

craic

16-12-2013, 10:32 AM

Simply, sell up and move the money to TEL. There you can trade all you like with a few cents differential every day.
So it's basically a traders stock, personally I'm too scared to even trade this mongrel,would love to have a go at getting some of my money back but it's hard to step back into a fire with 3rd degree burns

Harvey Specter

16-12-2013, 10:43 AM

KiwiGreen

16-12-2013, 11:01 AM

Questions rather than feedback:

- Does your model account for imputation credits. As a solely NZ company, their dividends should be fully imputed.
- why did you choose 25c from 2021. How much does a lower figure of say 20c impact the valuation.

Nah I haven't included imputation credits - do you know what they are as a percentage of the dividend?

At 20c from 2021 I get NZ$1.77

I think someone asked where I got my numbers...yep purely based on EY recommendation plus an assumption from 2021 on wards....

"Chorus implements a dividend holiday in the second half of FY14, FY15 and the first half of FY16;

Between FY16 and FY20 Chorus reinstate the dividend at 50% of the FY13 dividend, or 12.75cps;"

(I didn't bother splitting the 2016 in half, but doing so takes about 5c off the valuation).

Mista_Trix

16-12-2013, 11:07 AM

Nah I haven't included imputation credits - do you know what they are as a percentage of the dividend?

At 20c from 2021 I get NZ$1.77

I think someone asked where I got my numbers...yep purely based on EY recommendation plus an assumption from 2021 on wards....

"Chorus implements a dividend holiday in the second half of FY14, FY15 and the first half of FY16;

Between FY16 and FY20 Chorus reinstate the dividend at 50% of the FY13 dividend, or 12.75cps;"

(I didn't bother splitting the 2016 in half, but doing so takes about 5c off the valuation).

IMHO I think we've got a bit of upwards momentum left in the stock at the moment, even with all the negatives tallied it still seems underpriced.

KiwiGreen

16-12-2013, 11:23 AM

IMHO I think we've got a bit of upwards momentum left in the stock at the moment, even with all the negatives tallied it still seems underpriced.

Yeh the problem is though it's just so hard to value the co. when the future is so unknown.

My valuation may end up being over 50% wrong. So then you have to try counter that uncertainty with a higher discount rate. I used a bog standard 10% discount rate but if I increased it to 12% for example it would drop 20c off the SP. I don't think there is justification for the SP to move too much in either direction until some 'real' news comes out that can help give more certainty to the future.

Harvey Specter

16-12-2013, 11:53 AM

Nah I haven't included imputation credits - do you know what they are as a percentage of the dividend?Assuming fully imputed, which it should be, gross dividend will be cash div/0.72 (ie. 28% of gross dividends is imputed)

KiwiGreen

16-12-2013, 12:05 PM

Assuming fully imputed, which it should be, gross dividend will be cash div/0.72 (ie. 28% of gross dividends is imputed)

Ok so for the most recent 15.5c dividend owners received 15.5c plus 4.34c (15.5 * 0.28)? - I understand 0.72 is the maximum imputation ratio possible in NZ.

Or is the 4.34c is paid directly to IRD by chorus allowing the owners 15.5c tax free dividends?

Harvey Specter

16-12-2013, 12:35 PM

Ok so for the most recent 15.5c dividend owners received 15.5c plus 4.34c (15.5 * 0.28)? - I understand 0.72 is the maximum imputation ratio possible in NZ.

Or is the 4.34c is paid directly to IRD by chorus allowing the owners 15.5c tax free dividends?Getting off topic for CNU but:

imputation credits reflect income tax paid by the company to the IRD already. It stops the shareholder having to pay a second lot of tax for the same profit.

So the last 15.5c dividend had 6.02c of IC (15.5 /72*28)

Poet

16-12-2013, 12:45 PM

So I see that Peter Dunne is about to be reinstated to cabinet. Anyone see a deal being made here?

At the risk of quoting myself - this is starting to look like the way the problem will be solved

Dunne to negotiate with parties and then lend his support to the govt to get the legislation through. I'm not sure whether he gets reinstated to cabinet before or after (but that will no doubt have nothing to do with his chorus support)

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/9522372/Chorus-shares-creep-higher
Chorus shares crept higher this morning as investors took some encouragement from a new report and fresh political developments over the weekend.
The shares opened 1 cent higher at $1.48.
A report by EY Australia (previously Ernst & Young), published on Saturday, said Chorus faced a $250-million funding gap because of lower wholesale copper broadband prices. That was even if it adopted extensive cost-savings measures, including not paying any dividends for two years.
But Forsyth Barr analyst Blair Galpin said it might be a relief to investors that the consulting firm did not identify a larger funding gap or suggest that it might be possible for the company to have a longer "dividend holiday".
The funding gap was "where people expected, but it removed doubt at the back of people's minds that there might have been a bigger number out there", he said.
Galpin said it was also positive that United Future leader Peter Dunne had indicated he was open-minded about brokering industry talks on Chorus and wholesale copper pricing.
Dunne told Fairfax Media in a report also published on Saturday that he might be willing to play a role in bringing parties together. The development was welcomed by the Telecommunications Users Association.
"It is positive from Peter, and if we can get a deal done it's positive from everyone's perspective," Galpin said.
Deutsche Bank analyst Arie Dekker said it was interesting Dunne might play a role.
"There are parties that are open to it," Dekker said.

But a possible obstacle was that Chorus had given little away about what it might agree as a negotiated solution, he said.
The report from Ernst & Young contained "no new information in it really", he said.

couta1

16-12-2013, 01:09 PM

couta, listen to your gut, its telling you not to do it! if you didnt get in at $1.3x you've well and truly missed the bounce. look at DILs chart to see what happens to a stocks price with bad news over its head. unless the story changes, Milford pumping away wont change the situation long term. Cheers Moosie, yeah going with gut feeling alright, will look to recoup some of the loss next year, confidence took a real hit and takes a while to get that back,could have got some back already but was a bit like a possum caught in the headlights,hey watched a program yesterday called Yukon men and they were Moose hunting, looked pretty gruesome, be thankful you live in NZ,one things for sure is my naive trust in National party politicians has gone but what have we got left except the Conservatives who have some good policies,bring back the Outdoor recreation party at least we could vote for something we believed in like fishing,4 wheel driving,hunting etc ( Not Moose hunting of course)

Newman

16-12-2013, 01:44 PM

I would expect that what the Government can do is equivalent to $200m to Chorus. Capital raising now seems unfeasible.

Harvey Specter

16-12-2013, 02:21 PM

Capital raising now seems unfeasible.I disagree but the do need to have everything sorted and agreed so that investers can work out the dividend flow going forward.

If a dividend freeze for the next couple of years will be enough time to get everything sorted then, look to see what is required.

Still holding strong with just a couple of short dips below Fridays close.

Bobcat.

16-12-2013, 03:20 PM

Still holding strong with just a couple of short dips below Fridays close.

'Holding strong'??...that's not what I'm seeing. Last Friday's 153 was tested and it failed to breach. Now falling away sharply to 145.5 and looks to soon test last Friday's low of 143. If that is breached, it's again bearish.

Discl: I'm out now. As posted earlier, CNU is not a growth stock and it sure ain't a divi yield stock any longer (for at least 24 months). Better prospects elsewhere. Signing off this thread until the CNU/CFH contract negotiations are completed.

BC

J R Ewing

16-12-2013, 03:30 PM

If govt can hand over $500M to film industry ... I think $200M looks like small change!

And as film industry needs the fibre network BIG TIME! then the film industry benefits even more .... Or does the $500M already include $200M for fibre?[stirring the pot grin]

Don't the yachting guys need fibre for something? Maybe we can geta share of the latest Americas cup handout!

Harvey Specter

16-12-2013, 04:00 PM

'Holding strong'??...that's not what I'm seeing. Last Friday's 153 was tested and it failed to breach. Now falling away sharply to 145.5 and looks to soon test last Friday's low of 143. If that is breached, it's again bearish.
Last week closed at $1.47. it was above that all morning, hence my holding strong (in the face of a 'bad' report). A bit of a sell off this afternoon so agree it looks to have turned bearish. It will be very sensitivities to news over the next little while and if there is none forthcoming, it will drift (plummet) lower.

At current prices I definitely wouldn't be buying and I assume Milford has also stopped.

couta1

16-12-2013, 04:03 PM

'Holding strong'??...that's not what I'm seeing. Last Friday's 153 was tested and it failed to breach. Now falling away sharply to 145.5 and looks to soon test last Friday's low of 143. If that is breached, it's again bearish.

Discl: I'm out now. As posted earlier, CNU is not a growth stock and it sure ain't a divi yield stock any longer (for at least 24 months). Better prospects elsewhere. Signing off this thread until the CNU/CFH contract negotiations are completed.

BC Dead right Bobcat, those thinking its Holding strong have been reading too many Tui adds, Milfords ramp up starting to fizz out, will need supercharged bulls to keep this thing up for any length of time,and anyway nothing's changed on the good news front

Beagle

16-12-2013, 04:25 PM

Dead right Bobcat, those thinking its Holding strong have been reading too many Tui adds, Milfords ramp up starting to fizz out, will need supercharged bulls to keep this thing up for any length of time,and anyway nothing's changed on the good news front

I'll bet you are pleased you cut your losses and exited a while back.

couta1

16-12-2013, 04:31 PM

I'll bet you are pleased you cut your losses and exited a while back.
Absolutely, I keep thinking what I could have bought with that sum of money but the truth is it would have been that bit you leave to somebody else when you pass away(slightly cynical thinking but true), should be back to square one with Sum shares by this time next year hopefully

biker

16-12-2013, 05:10 PM

'Holding strong'??...that's not what I'm seeing. Last Friday's 153 was tested and it failed to breach. Now falling away sharply to 145.5 and looks to soon test last Friday's low of 143. If that is breached, it's again bearish.

Discl: I'm out now. As posted earlier, CNU is not a growth stock and it sure ain't a divi yield stock any longer (for at least 24 months). Better prospects elsewhere. Signing off this thread until the CNU/CFH contract negotiations are completed.

BC
I share your sentiments Bobcat. I have sold half my holding, from 1.46 up to 1.53, with a fair chunk today at 1.48. This stock is just too much hard work for me, but may sit tight on the rest pending the result of the CFH negotiations unless it gets beyond 1.50 again short term.

nextbigthing

16-12-2013, 06:45 PM

Another respected firm buying in, article seems more positive;

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/9522372/Govt-undecided-on-Chorus

Moosie, I would dare suggest the difference between DIL and CNU is that CNU has a more solid 'tangible' monopoly to back it up (granted it's one that's legislated against). I'm NOT saying it won't continue in a downtrend, but I would have thought that the market will factor this in this 'asset base' at some point, such as with Sam Morgans comments as of recent.

NBT

nextbigthing

16-12-2013, 06:52 PM

Shame they didn't freeze divies a few months back ... terrible management given they knew the outlook was indeed very uncertain.

Hey Belg,

Terrible management, or all part of the bigger plan - 'look we can't afford you to cut the prices because we have no money' - to which someone called their bluff? But they did it knowing it was Keys election promise and he was going to have to sort it out in some form as we're seeing now.

Short to medium term IMHO this stock is a wreck, but longer term, think of the monopolistic asset that is going dirt cheap at the moment. I know Buffet hated regulatory uncertainty but I understand he was willing to accept it once the cards were on the table and such an asset was going cheap!

NBT

Disc - Holding long term. This asset isn't going to rot in the ground. Sure the money could be better of trading XYZ but I don't have the time!

couta1

16-12-2013, 07:09 PM

Hey Belg,

Terrible management, or all part of the bigger plan - 'look we can't afford you to cut the prices because we have no money' - to which someone called their bluff? But they did it knowing it was Keys election promise and he was going to have to sort it out in some form as we're seeing now.

Short to medium term IMHO this stock is a wreck, but longer term, think of the monopolistic asset that is going dirt cheap at the moment. I know Buffet hated regulatory uncertainty but I understand he was willing to accept it once the cards were on the table and such an asset was going cheap!

NBT

Disc - Holding long term. This asset isn't going to rot in the ground. Sure the money could be better of trading XYZ but I don't have the time!
Yes but would you be holding long term if you'd paid near $3 like many of us did? I'm happier to sit on my Dil loss long term and that's a 50% one based on current share price as it hasn't been manipulated by politicians just accountants which is an easier fix IMHO

nextbigthing

16-12-2013, 07:18 PM

Yes but would you be holding long term if you'd paid near $3 like many of us did? I'm happier to sit on my Dil loss long term and that's a 50% one based on current share price as it hasn't been manipulated by politicians just accountants which is an easier fix IMHO

Hey Couta,

Where do you see CNU in five years time? How about in ten years time?

Cheers,

NBT

couta1

16-12-2013, 07:46 PM

Hey Couta,

Where do you see CNU in five years time? How about in ten years time?

Cheers,

NBT
NBT, Long term I see them being an okay company but whether the share price will get to $3 plus again who knows and sitting on a massive loss waiting 5-10 yrs to get your money back would be far more stressful than selling out for a loss ,plus you'll have your money back in around 4 years in one of the retirement stocks using what's left and that's excluding any trading activity should one choose to do that, I'm expecting to break even in Dil in around 2 yrs time, cheers

warthog

16-12-2013, 07:53 PM

Hey Couta,

Where do you see CNU in five years time? How about in ten years time?

Try 5 weeks time.

couta1

16-12-2013, 07:56 PM

Try 5 weeks time.
Please share your wisdom are we going to have a miracle of Biblical proportions?

Balance

16-12-2013, 08:07 PM

Insider trading?

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/9522372/Govt-undecided-on-Chorus

Mista_Trix

16-12-2013, 08:31 PM

Please share your wisdom are we going to have a miracle of Biblical proportions?

I originally bought in at $2.57, took the div, sold out at $2.44, now put half back in at $1.42, we'll see when the other half gets put in.
Its not always doom and gloom, it doesn't take a miracle to get your money back, just have a think about what you're wanting to achieve and how you can achieve it given the current circumstances.

Maybe I'm right, maybe I'm wrong, but I'd much rather be having a crack at it than whinging.

couta1

16-12-2013, 08:40 PM

I originally bought in at $2.57, took the div, sold out at $2.44, now put half back in at $1.42, we'll see when the other half gets put in.
Its not always doom and gloom, it doesn't take a miracle to get your money back, just have a think about what you're wanting to achieve and how you can achieve it given the current circumstances.

Maybe I'm right, maybe I'm wrong, but I'd much rather be having a crack at it than whinging.
Your pattern looks fine, I was asking Warthog why he used 5 weeks as a timeframe when NBT was using a 5-10 year timeframe and are we to expect a miracle in that timeframe,cheers

BlackCross

17-12-2013, 12:06 AM

fish

17-12-2013, 06:54 AM

I'm really surprised why more people haven't queried the need for rolling out of all this fibre to the home?
I connect via a standard vodafone copper connection and, using a VPN, watch the BBC and C4 programmes live via the 'net just as I would on broadcast TV in the UK.
So, if I can watch HD TV live from half way around the world just why would I, and most of the rest of the NZ population want anything faster?
Yes, I can see the requirement for a 'fatter pipe' into a business where the connection may be shared by many users but for the average home user? No way.

A political decision that was made and enacted and wont be reversed.
I was concerned that uptake would be disappointing.
No need to worry about this anymore.
Com com have given chorus the perfect excuse to downgrade the copper system and put all investment in broadband

clip

17-12-2013, 07:54 AM

I'm really surprised why more people haven't queried the need for rolling out of all this fibre to the home?
I connect via a standard vodafone copper connection and, using a VPN, watch the BBC and C4 programmes live via the 'net just as I would on broadcast TV in the UK.
So, if I can watch HD TV live from half way around the world just why would I, and most of the rest of the NZ population want anything faster?
Yes, I can see the requirement for a 'fatter pipe' into a business where the connection may be shared by many users but for the average home user? No way.

As the quality/definition of video steadily increases, so does the bandwidth required to stream it - given 5 years your copper connection won't be fast enough. And what then.. THEN we start the UFB and you have to wait 10 years for an internet connection you can do anything with? Copper is fast enough 'for now'.. but it's still slow compared to majority of developed overseas countries and will not be 'fast enough' forever. And that's just a single application i.e streaming video not to mention the countless others which will require a faster-than-copper connection

Harvey Specter

17-12-2013, 08:06 AM

I'm really surprised why more people haven't queried the need for rolling out of all this fibre to the home?

You must be lucky to live close to an exchange. Many don't - fibre will solve this.

couta1

17-12-2013, 08:19 AM

You must be lucky to live close to an exchange. Many don't - fibre will solve this.
I'm not that tech savvy but upon phoning Vodafone the other day re our plan they told me we don't need to worry about copper or fibre as the coaxial cable we have is different and they can increase speed when and if they want to,help on this one please?

clip

17-12-2013, 08:23 AM

What's your plan called and what were you wanting to know/what were you asking them?

couta1

17-12-2013, 08:26 AM

What's your plan called and what were you wanting to know/what were you asking them?
Will need to have a look, I asked them about copper and they told me there cable is not copper and there would be no need to get fibre using there system?

clip

17-12-2013, 08:33 AM

That would be the Telstra cable lines they bought I think, only in specific areas. Most others would ve covered by copper broadband, copper vdsl or fibre

couta1

17-12-2013, 08:35 AM

That would be the Telstra cable lines they bought I think, only in specific areas. Most others would ve covered by copper broadband, copper vdsl or fibre
Clip yes it is a Telstra cable,does that mean they can increase our speed to match or exceed fibre?

Mista_Trix

17-12-2013, 08:36 AM

I've said this before, try being in a business that relies on good internet speeds, its soooo frustrating.

I work for an eLearning design company and we move gigs and gigs of files a day back and forwards from the cloud (large uncompressed development and design files), it takes a couple of minutes each time you want to grab something, multiply this across tens and tens of projects, and tens and tens of people and its a massive waste of productivity.

Skype (or GoToMeeting etc). Don't even get me started, we do a lot of international calls with clients and other businessess, its embarrassing - "it's not usually this bad with other vendors" "yeah sorry, New Zealand internet's a bit useless, perhaps lets just have this conversation by email". Then you get the flow on effects of working across cultures and not picking up on subtleties that you would have got in a clean video conversation.

Uptake may be a little slow, but the requirement is definitely there.

clip

17-12-2013, 08:39 AM

They can increase speeds at will by upgrading equipment but coax as a physical medium/cable can't match fibre

couta1

17-12-2013, 08:41 AM

They can increase speeds at will by upgrading equipment but coax as a physical medium/cable can't match fibre
Thanks clip, I guess for our households purposes it will do all we need it to plus its better than copper by the sound of it

couta1

17-12-2013, 08:44 AM

Wasn't that rise they are talking about largely initiated by Milford's comments? Or have I gotten my dates mixed up?
They are also talking about the rise that occurred back in August when the Govt indicated they would overrule comcom

couta1

17-12-2013, 08:56 AM

Ah OK, I should read the article more closely. The TV news segment seemed to be focusing on the Friday price change only....
Yesterday's article mentioned August and today's does mention unusual movements over the last year

Mista_Trix

17-12-2013, 09:06 AM

There were CNU staff on this site discussing the shares wasn't there??
Oh dear.

Mista_Trix

17-12-2013, 09:21 AM

Vince is going to be a busy man!

Probably a good time to reflect on what we all post, might get a little bit more transparent up in here.
...Not that it isn't already - lest we forget.

Balance

17-12-2013, 09:23 AM

Yup apparently! There were numerous warnings from the administrator about that.

Why is that a problem?

Unless they are divulging insider information and/or acting outside of Chorus's personnel policies?

couta1

17-12-2013, 09:27 AM

Why is that a problem?

Unless they are divulging insider information and/or acting outside of Chorus's personnel policies?
Possibly excessive ramping up of share price and people believing their spin to start with

biker

17-12-2013, 09:42 AM

Ask admin, they were the ones who made the warnings.

And we still have no idea who they were referring to, making us all suspects.

I also agree with Balance. Unless insider information has been divulged, can't see a problem.

'Ramping' ( up or down) is going to be prevalent on any sight like this. It's the nature of the beast. Fortunately there is some very insightful comment here as well and I for one am grateful for that.

Aaron

17-12-2013, 10:28 AM

Harvey Specter

17-12-2013, 10:44 AM

This might have been discussed earlier in the thread but they seem like they are getting a bit too full of themselves.Its only one person. And yes, a bit to much exposure but NZ media is lazy and just repeats what the loudest person is say.

Unrelated example is KimDotCom media attention for paying for 1. a new cable, 2. team NZ, 3. political party ...

Hoop

17-12-2013, 11:08 AM

On a quick glance (analysis) at a 1 year chart there seems little evidence of a leaky boat...Most of the price sensitive announcements seem to coincide with the price movements and if there has been insider trading it hasn't showed up as a medium/long term effect.

The lesser the time frame and periods e.g 1 month charts with 60 minutes periods may show up minor effects if any....This is a time consuming charting exercise and frankly its not worth the effort for most of us longer term share investors.

A lot of noisy media games being played with these shares... so I guess anything is possible ...eh?

Winner Quote "...Should put dividend dates on it as well ..."

Updated chart with Ex div dates

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/CNU16122013-1.gif (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/CNU16122013-1.gif.html)

winner69

17-12-2013, 11:12 AM

Hoop - well done

One sick looking chart eh

Should put dividend dates on it as well

Hoop

17-12-2013, 11:46 AM

Hoop - well done

One sick looking chart eh

Should put dividend dates on it as well
Interesting Winner... it seems both ex dates correspond to the Bollinger Band squeezes....Is the impending dividend a lure for medium/shorter term investors??

EDIT yeah the chart is a sick puppy alright.....however last wednesday and thursday a raft of short term buy signals emerged ...whether this will generate into some longer term signals is yet to be seen ...but could it be that the 130c is the bottom?

couta1

17-12-2013, 11:59 AM

Interesting Winner... it seems both ex dates correspond to the Bollinger Band squeezes....Is the impending dividend a lure for medium/shorter term investors??
Your onto it that is why I went over to CNU

JAYAY

17-12-2013, 12:33 PM

Does anyone else feel like the Telecommunications Users Association gets way too much media exposure. It almost feels like this group is using its exposure and political influence to get what they want and as a result screw over Chorus shareholders. Sort of controlling Chorus via the media. I see they are questioning insider trading. What is it to them I doubt anyone in that association would hold Chorus shares.
This might have been discussed earlier in the thread but they seem like they are getting a bit too full of themselves. All credit to them though for becoming the voice of telecommunications in NZ. Next they will be demanding directors on the Chorus Board.

Yes of course they get too much media exposure. Brislen, Hooton and now this morning Callendar, shooting their mouths off. Hopefully the more it goes on the more people will see them for what they are. Anyway what has happened to Chetwin? She is supposed to be the spokesperson. Brislen and Co do not need her anymore. I wonder if she has woken up to how she was used to create the false impression they were fighting for the consumer.

Mista_Trix

17-12-2013, 03:21 PM

So we've got;
ACCUMULATE - Year target $1.90 (Forsyth Barr), and
HOLD - Year target - $1.58 (Deutsche Bank).

What else is out there??

Harvey Specter

17-12-2013, 03:34 PM

So we've got;
ACCUMULATE - Year target $1.90 (Forsyth Barr), and
HOLD - Year target - $1.58 (Deutsche Bank).

What else is out there??DESTROY - Year target $0 (TUANZ)

biker

17-12-2013, 05:02 PM

DESTROY - Year target $0 (TUANZ)

Brilliant HS. :-))

couta1

17-12-2013, 05:03 PM

DESTROY - Year target $0 (TUANZ)
Love it,could be closer than the other 2 though

Bobcat.

17-12-2013, 06:22 PM

DESTROY - Year target $0 (TUANZ)

ANNOY - Election Year Target 20% (Greens)

Harvey Specter

17-12-2013, 07:55 PM

Dispute my earlier comment today, am I allowed to say it held up well today. Not a chartist so don't know what it means.

couta1

17-12-2013, 09:35 PM

Dispute my earlier comment today, am I allowed to say it held up well today. Not a chartist so don't know what it means.
IT means it will probably go down by tomorrow p.m

Mista_Trix

17-12-2013, 09:38 PM

IT means it will probably go down by tomorrow p.m

Based on?
There's a massive amount of volume going through each day and its holding.

couta1

17-12-2013, 09:45 PM

Based on?
There's a massive amount of volume going through each day and its holding.
Ive noticed it often drops of after lunch after an up day but was a bit of a flippant comment also

Stu

17-12-2013, 09:49 PM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQvRudS8zzU
and i thought he was just another genetically neanderthal heavy footballer, but I was young and naive, and unfamiliar in the ways of Alinsky.

Mista_Trix

18-12-2013, 09:09 AM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQvRudS8zzU
and i thought he was just another genetically neanderthal heavy footballer, but I was young and naive, and unfamiliar in the ways of Alinsky.

That is brilliant :-S

False Profit

18-12-2013, 11:59 AM

...any Motley Fools buying on the dips?

couta1

18-12-2013, 12:40 PM

IT means it will probably go down by tomorrow p.m
As i was saying boys

couta1

18-12-2013, 05:50 PM

Ive noticed it often drops of after lunch after an up day but was a bit of a flippant comment also
Even observations wth a bit of flippantcy turn out true aye boys,less watching those neanderthal footballer clips and more eyes on the ball, closed at$1.43

couta1

05-01-2014, 08:26 AM

Any thoughts on where this company is heading this year or is it pure crystal ball gazing to assume anything at this stage,I'm thinking it may end up back at $2 but then will the reality sink in when they officially announce no dividend payments and keep it at current levels or send it south again?

couta1

05-01-2014, 09:24 AM

Thanks Sparky for your reply I was keen to hear your thoughts on CNU as I know how bullish you were on them earlier in the year completely agree re your sentiments on the political side of things I think the Govts response was insipid after promising a strong intervention and by the time they tried to get cross party support the horse had well and truly bolted I actually sent an email to John Key re this and the fact that they had ramped the share price up by indicating an intervention, I guess its human nature to want to make back your losses and I was thinking if the price got back to around $2 I would make half them back but as you say there are better buying opportunities elsewhere.

craic

05-01-2014, 10:42 AM

horus1

05-01-2014, 11:05 AM

This is a lemon. Np business case was done and with technological change 4G will lessen the need for fibre to homes . It will be needed for business but the govt should have kept out of it .

couta1

05-01-2014, 12:34 PM

couta1

05-01-2014, 12:41 PM

This is a lemon. Np business case was done and with technological change 4G will lessen the need for fibre to homes . It will be needed for business but the govt should have kept out of it .
True also,the young ones love 4G, instant no hassle connection,medium to large business will need fibre but a lot of small business and sole traders wont

clip

05-01-2014, 01:09 PM

A lot of small businesses are actually interested and taking it up, as it's noy a lot more expensive than a dsl connection and isps are offering discounts/cheap rates/months free for signing up. Uptake was slow to get started but it's getting there and once people try it they will be unlikely to ever go back I feel. This is my POV from working in one of the larger I.T services companies/ provider in small-med business space in Auckland

nextbigthing

05-01-2014, 08:42 PM

I will keep it simple - the success of CNU depends on the uptake of fibre by new customers - the level of uptake is well below the level needed to be profitable. The assumption that every Tom, Dick and Harry will rush in to buy this system is flawed. I know people who have computers that they seldom switch on because they can text all their communications - I know one still on dial-up and a vast number who are outside the range where the price might be reasonable. So why climb on the back of a donkey when there are saddled horses nearby.

So let me get this straight. You feel that fibre is a donkey and dialup is a saddled horse? Hmm I'm not sure dialup is the way forward Craic.

After trying to upload some summer snaps to online storage the other day even I saw the need for faster internet. As more and more people get on board, programs, systems, file sizes etc will be developed around true high speed internet and therefore people will either have to stop keeping up with technology (eg stay on dialup!) or get on board with fibre. Especially if CNU go down the route of slowing copper speeds! Therefore the signup rate for fibre will be exponential once it gets going as people wish to keep up.

craic

05-01-2014, 10:55 PM

[QUOTE=nextbigthing;452561]So let me get this straight. You feel that fibre is a donkey and dialup is a saddled horse? Hmm I'm not sure dialup is the way forward Craic.

This forum is about the relative value of companies, one to another, and the best and the worst of investments. If you took the trouble to read my post properly you would not have to be told that cnu is the donkey, in my view, maybe not the only one, but there are plenty of saddled horses among the other investments, by comparison.

nextbigthing

06-01-2014, 06:38 AM

Fair enough. But your argument still seems to be that CNU is a donkey of an investment because people aren't going to switch to fibre and your mate's still on dialup. Just like people aren't going to need electric candles and there's no need for households to start embracing personal computers right?

I agree CNU might not be the best investment right now of all the listed companies, however hopefully you get my point as to why fiber uptake WILL occur and if you're writing CNU off on this alone then you could be missing out on a share of a seriously undervalued asset..

craic

06-01-2014, 07:48 AM

I am writing this off now, partly on expert advice related to telecommunications systems but mostly because I am 76 years old and I prefer to have my profits now to spend on all the excesses that we oldies get into rather than wait for that lot to make a profit. There si also the likelihood that aerial transmission - no fibres,no copper - could suddenly bypass the lot.

Heffner

06-01-2014, 05:40 PM

Where can I buy into that technology? Or even better an authoritative link of substance to understand it better. Many thanks.

I went to a few conferences about the "aerial transmission" that I presume Craic is quoting, not sure if that is the correct terminology. However they were a couple of years ago now and I am 100% sure they actually involved connection by optic fibre.

Harvey Specter

06-01-2014, 07:16 PM

I went to a few conferences about the "aerial transmission" that I presume Craic is quoting, not sure if that is the correct terminology. However they were a couple of years ago now and I am 100% sure they actually involved connection by optic fibre.
I know of one company that investigated home broadband via 4G but that still used a fibre from the towers (there were lots of towers for Auckland). It wasn't viable without a 30%+ market share.

And currently using 4G on my iPad this holiday, the cost is prohibitive for a home based solution.

craic

07-01-2014, 10:23 AM

When I first came here, a phone call to home cost several pounds a minute. My early video player cost $3,500 and so it goes. By the time CNU is starting to look like making money from its fibre, the will be something else.

couta1

07-01-2014, 10:28 AM

Who would have thought that PEB shares would be worth the same as CNU at this stage,6 months ago, spot the lemon

BlackPeter

07-01-2014, 05:06 PM

Who would have thought that PEB shares would be worth the same as CNU at this stage,6 months ago, spot the lemon
Hi couta1,
Don't want to caution your optimism re PEB (and this is the wrong thread for that anyway), however .. just remember the rising stars of PEB and GEN (both hit at some stage more than $5 after a spectacular rise, leaving the boring CNU's and TEL's of this world behind them. I hope PEB won't come back that hard than GEN and RAK did, but at this stage the only thing people are paying for is a story.

Re CNU (now it is the right thread ;) ): Last years share performance was admittedly disappointing and the board performance was weak at best. On the other hand - the writing was on the wall ... and I think that at current levels the share is (long term) a steal. Chorus owns the lions share of the New Zealand communications backbone. Any telecom provider (and any technology) needs to use their fibre network (unless we move exclusively to satellite technology which is ultra expensive and slow). How can they long-term be a lemon?

discl: hold CNU

In4a$

07-01-2014, 05:22 PM

Who would have thought that PEB shares would be worth the same as CNU at this stage,6 months ago, spot the lemon
Not sure CNU is a lemon, political interference made it a dog, I got out on the first whiff of that luckily, but I think ufb is here to stay and most of the younger ones cant wait, faster gaming, movie downloads, and all the rest will ensure that. Wether the CNU price will come right, and when who knows.

macduffy

07-01-2014, 05:25 PM

How can they long-term be a lemon?

Perhaps not exactly "a lemon". But as a regulated monopoly they will always be subject to a heavy hand over their profitability.

klid

07-01-2014, 05:26 PM

I'm picking it will rise upon announcement of contract renegotiation with CFH, which the government wanted to see completed "early in the new year". Does anyone know when that is roughly or exactly? :)

craic

07-01-2014, 05:42 PM

The rellie of mine who advised me on CNU right at the start was an engineer, right up there on the right hand of God as far as
telecom and telecommunications were concerned and he went to many odd corners of the world with his trade on behalf of the NZ Govt. He is also leading figure in the ham radio world even in his retirement. I must ask him about the future of unwired communications. I have a son who is a senior Data Systems Architect for the Bank of America and he may know more about the immediate future than most. But my grandson, who at nine years has just passed his 11+ exam for a top London school, will probably be laughing at the lot of us in another 10 years.

Bobcat.

07-01-2014, 06:26 PM

...the future of unwired communications.

Check these out:

http://compnetworking.about.com/od/wirelessinternet/g/bldef_wimax.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WiMAX
http://4g360.com/

BlackPeter

07-01-2014, 06:53 PM

Check these out:

http://compnetworking.about.com/od/wirelessinternet/g/bldef_wimax.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WiMAX
http://4g360.com/

ever wondered what they use to connect all these required base stations with each other? CNU's fibre network!

Bobcat.

07-01-2014, 07:04 PM

ever wondered what they use to connect all these required base stations with each other? CNU's fibre network!

Good point. Apart from Satellite comms, I'm not aware of any other wireless technology that doesn't use wireline somewhere along its path. And wireline is either copper or fibre or both.

peat

07-01-2014, 08:34 PM

the backbone is already there though, and is included in the cost of copper as it is required to support ADSL 2 etc.
the UFB rollout though, is about putting it to the doorstep.

Poet

07-01-2014, 10:55 PM

I get the impression that people think that as technology improves, the data carrying capacity of cell networks will increase without limit.
There are in fact some pretty well defined physical limits on the capacity of radio networks - they simply don't have the ultimate potential of fibre due to the laws of nature and no technology will change this ( in the same way that no technology will allow us to travel faster than light) The frequency that can be broadcast by a cell phone transmitter is limited to the range of the spectrum that we know as 'radio frequency' (assuming here that we don't want to fry ourselves) and the amount of data that can be carried by a given frequency is limited by nature (Nyquist and Shannon showed this quite some time ago).
At the moment 4G radio can deliver good data speeds to some people, some of the time, but when (not if, in my opinion) the demand for capacity grows, it simply won't be an option to supply by radio - fibre or some other technology will be the answer

Not trying to say that CNU is a particularly good investment here and now -just saying that radio won't be the long term answer unless we all go back to simpler times.

peat

07-01-2014, 11:02 PM

one can never predict the limitations of current technology though despite 'the laws of nature'
for example. first modem connection was a 14.4 , then a 33.3 then 56k all supposedly the maximum possible.
Then, lo and behold adsl came along and suddenly that copper wire could do mb/s - same copper wire, same laws of nature.
Now ADSL2 and VDSL, 10's of mb/s.

I'm dubious about the laws of nature ;).

craic

07-01-2014, 11:06 PM

So how will all that allow you to make money from CNU? And more importantly when? And is the ultimate - the speed of light - not under question? And how fast is a Quantum Leap that allows a particle of energy to move between two locations without crossing the intervening space. Glass fibre is great stuff but it one stage in a technology that will be unrecognisable in ten years.

Poet

07-01-2014, 11:06 PM

Poet

07-01-2014, 11:08 PM

fish

08-01-2014, 09:27 PM

I tend to agree Craic, lots of new stuff to come. All I'm saying is it won't be cell technology.

And most of it will be using fibre
Not withstanding this i feel the market has grossly underestimated the cards chorus has to play to negate the misconceived ccm pricing

couta1

08-01-2014, 09:48 PM

And most of it will be using fibre
Not withstanding this i feel the market has grossly underestimated the cards chorus has to play to negate the misconceived ccm pricing
The Govt is the dealer of the cards chorus will be able to play and the Govt has dealt it a few Jokers to date after promising a full house.hmmm

fish

10-01-2014, 11:17 AM

The Govt is the dealer of the cards chorus will be able to play and the Govt has dealt it a few Jokers to date after promising a full house.hmmm
I suspect the government would like to deal a winning card for chorus and get this game over but they are prevented by not having a majority.
It could take years for courts and cost based pricing to finally settle the matter which is not good for vodaphone or any of the telecommunications companies-what do they charge from december?.If chorus wins there could be clawback.
I would imagine a lot of investment is on hold until a decision is made

bull....

10-01-2014, 04:08 PM

All players are losers in the current state of this fiasco, telco,s may like the fact they have won some free money from chorus at the end of this year chorus if it wins court case would likely claw all this back + at the same time smaller telcos will go bust probably cause they spent their winfall, all political parties look silly from what has happened and as you say telecommunications will stall for years while this all gets sorted out so most sensible thing would be for someone to broker a compromise between all players? surely for some sanity to return

craic

10-01-2014, 05:48 PM

The greater levels of insanity are with the CNU shareholders. CNU is a public company selling its wares on the open market to consumers. I am a consumer. What are they offering me? A much faster, more efficient system of sending and receiving data at a greater cost plus heavy installation costs and probably requiring a contract, signed by me to discourage me from changing my mind in the near future. Do I need it? - no. Am I happy with the existing system? - Yes. Down the road there are a collection of car dealers, all keen to sell me a car that I don't need because I am content with the one that I already have. Do you expect the government to intervene there and level the playing field? Sell cnu and buy something that doesn't keep you awake at night. ( and that's on just one rum)

Harvey Specter

10-01-2014, 08:51 PM

The greater levels of insanity are with the CNU shareholders. CNU is a public company selling its wares on the open market to consumers.Wrong - they operate an interposed model so they sell to retail telco's who sell to use. If the ComCom didn't get involved, they copper and fibre would cost the same. If you could swap your existing car for a Ferrari, or RS6 (or whatever floats your boat) t no cost and the same operating cost, wouldn't you swap?

craic

10-01-2014, 10:32 PM

They sell you buy whatever spin you like to put on it - this show is about investing in the sharemarket and making a profit from that. No I would not like a Ferrari because it would cost me so much more to get to the same place and I would not like the insurance bills.
Wrong - they operate an interposed model so they sell to retail telco's who sell to use. If the ComCom didn't get involved, they copper and fibre would cost the same. If you could swap your existing car for a Ferrari, or RS6 (or whatever floats your boat) t no cost and the same operating cost, wouldn't you swap?

couta1

10-01-2014, 10:59 PM

They sell you buy whatever spin you like to put on it - this show is about investing in the sharemarket and making a profit from that. No I would not like a Ferrari because it would cost me so much more to get to the same place and I would not like the insurance bills.
I've had 2 radical cars, one a street legal drag racing T bucket with Nos beautiful car used to shake house windows when I started it and set car alarms off all over the place,and you couldn't park it anywhere for long or crowds would gather and start playing with expensive parts etc Young and old loved it and its takes motorbikes out at the lights in a drag if you could control fishtale movement shore needed big balls and a touch of insanity to push it hard

couta1

10-01-2014, 11:09 PM

I've had 2 radical cars, one a street legal drag racing T bucket with Nos beautiful car used to shake house windows when I started it and set car alarms off all over the place,and you couldn't park it anywhere for long or crowds would gather and start playing with expensive parts etc Young and old loved it and its takes motorbikes out at the lights in a drag if you could control fishtale movement shore needed big balls and a touch of insanity to push it hard
Sold that and still have 572ci big block Chev in jag a bit more user friendly and does 5 k to the liter normal driving,so what'sthis got to do with chorus well fast fancy things are great if you use them often but how much speed and power does the members of an average household need in reality in terms of there broadband maybe most would be happy with a 5 liter v8 commodore and wouldn't need my 9.3 liter jag V8 as you can only use a third of its power and speed anyway

couta1

10-01-2014, 11:42 PM

I'd take Scarlett JohanssonI bring it tover Meg I thinyan any day of the year ;)
Moosie i promise to take you for a spin in my jag next time i bring it to Napier,i think your just the kind of guy to enjoy the insanity,maybe we should paint Xro on the side but then again Diligent as they need a hurry along

TimmyTP

10-01-2014, 11:56 PM

bull....

11-01-2014, 12:39 AM

Harvey Specter

11-01-2014, 06:47 AM

so what'sthis got to do with chorus well fast fancy things are great if you use them often but how much speed and power does the members of an average household need in reality in terms of there broadband maybe most would be happy with a 5 liter v8
Most people don't get past a 2l fwd. back to CNU, what happens when sky ditches the satellite and goes to Internet only. Or Netflix comes to NZ, or your kids start playing the latest online games and start complaining that they are getting shot before the baddies get downloaded.

House of Cards will be streamed in 4k to samsung TVs this year. 4k will catch on where 3d didn't.

In4a$

11-01-2014, 09:07 AM

Agree TTP , most old people in NZ probably dont need Fibre ( they probably dont even know what it is ) but the young and the generations to come will want all the fancy online content thats fed to us from overseas

Copper will disappear once fibre is nationwide. My grandkids probably what know what "copper" means. They'll have fibre becuase its cheap and fast wiz bang 4G wifi or better.

Hoop

11-01-2014, 09:40 AM

Fibre is totally ingrained in many, many advanced countries, alongside 4G, WiFi and parcel post. I would go as far as to say it is indispensable wherever it has reached critical mass. Take a look at Hong Kong or any number of cities in mainland China, Singapore or Japan, name just a few; you will see that fast communications reaching into almost every aspect of daily life.

This might sound fanciful if you have not been to a properly first world country recently, but people with youthful mindsets will queue up to get their fibre in NZ; they will eat all they can get and they will not go back once they have taken the red pill.

Agree TTP , most old people in NZ probably dont need Fibre ( they probably dont even know what it is ) but the young and the generations to come will want all the fancy online content thats fed to us from overseas

This old dude took the red pill ...agree no turning back...also..this old dude is on all you can eat for $99/m too...i'm now free from those stupid annoying data caps..the phone is incl with extra functions ...I get an automated email with missed phone calls.... the Smart Phone is paired to my phone so all local calling on the cell phone is free
My video online has automatically switched to HD without me doing anything...watching Games of Thrones etc in full sparkling HD (I cancelled SKY, its miles too expensive compared to other online entertainment providers).
All the gadgets inside my house talk to the home network..PS3, the blue ray PVR (got it to replace the My Sky box) all the cell phones, TV's, PCs, laptop and tablet.

When the kids come home they switch to you tube on the TV and find videos via their smart phones..(Smart Phones paired to the Blu Ray PVR)

It seems like every month another cool app appears to add another function to the household network

Got in before that Govt subsidy runs out (its still going I think), so all the cabling/box to the house was free...

CNU must receive future-proofed benefits as a fibre provider once mainstream catches on to all this extra stuff for a lesser price.

Disc: Fibre cable laid by Ultra Fast and lit up on 2nd November 2011......Chorus website still keeps telling me I haven't fibre in my street...

craic

11-01-2014, 09:43 AM

Hoop

11-01-2014, 10:18 AM

And how long will all this take and how much money will you lose while you wait?. I repeat this - and all the forums on this site is about making money by sharemarket investing.

PS The success of companies in NZ from a profitability point of view is usually in inverse proportion to the number of posts. Have a look WDT, CNU and too many to name.

Too true....Unfortunately its time wasted reading all these posts and doing so shifts ones focus away from good performing stocks....even worse ...wasting time writing these bloody posts...God help me I must get my time management priorities back to where they were...no wonder I'm underperforming on the market at the moment.

Hawkeye

11-01-2014, 12:50 PM

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/tech-trends-2014-what-will-happen-chorus-ck-150642

Major von Tempsky

12-01-2014, 11:50 AM

But Hoop....you have entered the Sharemarket competition this year yet....a man with all your Charting software and ability should easily win the sharemarket competition each year....

Onion

13-01-2014, 12:24 PM

Some stats that show NZ compared to the rest of the OECD with respect to fibre broadband.

"Fast fiber-optic broadband spreads across developed world"

http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-57617063-94/fast-fiber-optic-broadband-spreads-across-developed-world/

BlackPeter

13-01-2014, 05:21 PM

More than $2 Million traded today and the price creeps upwards. Crossing 30 day average ... Is the tide turning?

couta1

13-01-2014, 06:43 PM

More than $2 Million traded today and the price creeps upwards. Crossing 30 day average ... Is the tide turning?
Toss a coin and take a guess, if it is watch the traders jump on board,now there's a thought but then again yeah/nah

BlackCross

14-01-2014, 08:12 AM

Part of a very interesting article in NBR:

"..What if Chorus adopted a different business model? Something like this:

Give the middle finger to the entire UFB project and put it into contract mode. Deliver what they have too, but make it a subsidiary department or business unit and just trickle feed it. It’s a mess, it makes no economic sense to keep investing in a risky project this size. It proves a point and it may force a change in government approach.
Focus on building end point solutions for fibre backhaul. For example, wireless is already outstripping fibre speed. When you look at the suburbs around Wellington and Christchurch in particular, dropping end point high speed wireless into the middle of a suburb working with local Councils makes huge sense.
Get rid of the old Telecom ethos that they’ve inherited. The same processes, systems, and potentially people will be leading them to recreate the old Telecom model. Even if they do, they can’t win that fight. Telecom has moved on from it and will dominate them.
For god’s sake get some innovation going. There are a bunch of technologies out there that could supplement fibre, in fact, fibre is just one of a range of broadband and backbone technologies. Smart grid, wireless, fast copper, and other technologies are already ahead of UFB. Start thinking about how to use and sell them.
Diversify.
Smash the company into a group of companies, cells if you like, allow each to succeed or fail on their own merits with their own ethos and their own ideas and innovation. Companies that are successful today are small not monolithic creatures with the inability to change and adapt quickly. Small companies can change overnight, the monoliths need governance structures, project offices, architects, three layers of management, red tape for the sake of it, and can take years to deliver the most simple products.
Get closer to local Councils. A lot of them are starting to understand that broadband is critical to the community and are ready to work with telcos in a new way.

The point is, that unless Chorus changes its business model completely, it might as well take the nuclear option and shut down because it will never compete with Telecom and Vodafone on their playing field. It needs to get government’s hands off the back of its neck as well, somehow...."

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/we-need-have-talk-about-broadband-were-doing-it-wrong-ck-150651

Casino

14-01-2014, 08:20 AM

I stopped reading at wireless is already outstripping fibre speed.

clip

14-01-2014, 08:28 AM

Article made some good points, but yeah fell down on that point casino pointed out. While 4g is doing 100mb/s, fibre the physical medium is MUCH faster, even though our ISP's are only offering 100mbit plans currently. The fibre being rolled out is capable of min 1gb/s (1000mb/s), it just won't be offered initially, and offers the ability to go to 10gb/s if exchange/isp equipment is upgraded

bull....

14-01-2014, 08:30 AM

a break of 1.55 makes things interesting

craic

14-01-2014, 08:42 AM

I back horses - sometimes. I always back ones that i think will win their next race. I never back horses that are getting some track time, ready for the Wellington/Hastings or whatever meeting next July. I never back horses that could do well with a better trainer/jockey. Sometimes I am right - sometimes wrong - sometimes I make stupid mistakes. But why, oh why do people insist on backing this horse in this race with a grossly overweight jockey, a committee of trainers and a very muddy track? There are usually eight or more races on every card. Just for the record, I went to the machine at the Club on Saturday to back two horses, one had the same name as my granddaughter, the other picked on form. I put my money in followed by one betting card and got my bet out but accidentally put the same card in again and got the same bet again. I didn't repeat the wrong bet. I won. My grandaughters namesake is still running.

Harvey Specter

14-01-2014, 08:42 AM

I stopped reading at wireless is already outstripping fibre speed.

Agree.

My version the plan is:
- Prioritise areas (lots of business or high income areas)
- Once areas are fully connected, reduce the basic copper speed. (ie. a targeted Nuclear option)
- get RMA concessions from government as part of current negotiations. It is ridiculous what they have to go though to connect to an apartment complex etc.
- Somehow (and I am not sure how) but get content into NZ (netflix etc) so that fibre becomes a necessity.
- They probably should have funded the Hawaiki Cable project to break southern Crosses monopoly but now that the ComCom has destroyed their business, they can no longer afford it.

Casino

14-01-2014, 09:29 AM

Agree.

My version the plan is:
- Prioritise areas (lots of business or high income areas)
- Once areas are fully connected, reduce the basic copper speed. (ie. a targeted Nuclear option)
- get RMA concessions from government as part of current negotiations. It is ridiculous what they have to go though to connect to an apartment complex etc.
- Somehow (and I am not sure how) but get content into NZ (netflix etc) so that fibre becomes a necessity.
- They probably should have funded the Hawaiki Cable project to break southern Crosses monopoly but now that the ComCom has destroyed their business, they can no longer afford it.

Power, water and UFB - Every household will want it. How can the markets be so enthusiastic about every single cloud application but not the technology that delivers them?

Harvey Specter

14-01-2014, 09:32 AM

Power, water and UFB - Every household will want it. Want it? They should be treated as necessities of life!

Casino

14-01-2014, 09:40 AM

Want it? They should be treated as necessities of life!

Just a matter of time and everyone will wonder what they were worried about when CNU was below 1.50.

couta1

14-01-2014, 09:55 AM

Just a matter of time and everyone will wonder what they were worried about when CNU was below 1.50.
Who's worried about $1.50,anything under $2 is still a worry IMHO

Casino

14-01-2014, 11:34 AM

Who's worried about $1.50,anything under $2 is still a worry IMHO

I feel sorry for all the shareholders that were screwed. Right now, we only hear about the most extreme measures and outcomes but sooner or later a sensible solution will be found once this circus has served its purpose.

brentk

15-01-2014, 01:20 PM

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/tech-trends-2014-what-will-happen-chorus-ck-150642

Perhaps I'm looking at this a bit simplistically, but I can't see why a version of the "nuclear option" doesn't give Chorus a get out of jail free to any pricing Comcom would try & push on them? This option seems to be talked up as being hugely dramatic, but I don't see why it has to be.

For example, Chorus says 'sure thing' to the Comcom pricing - 'we can provide an entry level copper connection for that price' and proceeds to offer perhaps dialup or slightly faster, say 128k or 256k (so it still official qualifies as 'broadband' for PR purposes) - offered at comcom pricing. Then continue to offer 'advanced connection' full speed ADSL over copper at whatever the hell price they want ... say the price it currently is. I for one will continue to pay for decent bandwidth until I cat get UFB - which would now be at a at a very similar price and very compelling.

I don't see this as being all that dramatic an option? Definitely well short of 'nuclear' and means all Comcom has succeed in doing is creating a new cheaper but slower version of the broadband offering (one that I'd imagine half the retailers wouldn't even bother offering). And if Chorus does have a lever offering so much control, surely this leaves them in a position no-so-worse-off than when everything went tits up in Nov? (aside from scaring the hell out of investors at how readily politics can screw with this business)

Am I missing something here? :)

Harvey Specter

15-01-2014, 01:32 PM

Am I missing something here? :)Try and find some comments from Paul Brind___ (?) on this on previous NBR articles. I think he puts forward his view on why this wouldn't work. Something about retailers installing their own equipment.

fish

15-01-2014, 09:17 PM

Try and find some comments from Paul Brind___ (?) on this on previous NBR articles. I think he puts forward his view on why this wouldn't work. Something about retailers installing their own equipment.
Wouldn't that be investing in not only equipment but installation which would soon be obsolete by the time its fitted by a cheap offering of fibre?

couta1

15-01-2014, 10:03 PM

Perhaps I'tooking at this a bit simplistically, but I can't see why a version of the "nuclear option" doesn't give Chorus a get out of jail free to any pricing Comcom would try & push on them? This option seems to be talked up as being hugely dramatic, but I don't see why it has to be.

For example, Chorus says 'sure thing' to the Comcom pricing - 'we can provide an entry level copper connection for that price' and proceeds to offer perhaps dialup or slightly faster, say 128k or 256k (so it still official qualifies as 'broadband' for PR purposes) - offered at comcom pricing. Then continue to offer 'advanced connection' full speed ADSL over copper at whatever the hell price they want ... say the price it currently is. I for one will continue to pay for decent bandwidth until I cat get UFB - which would now be at a at a very similar price and very compelling.

I don't see this as being all that dramatic an option? Definitely well short of 'nuclear' and means all Comcom has succeed in doing is creating a new cheaper but slower version of the broadband offering (one that I'd imagine half the retailers wouldn't even bother offering). And if Chorus does have a lever offering so much control, surely this leaves them in a position no-so-worse-off than when everything went tits up in Nov? (aside from scaring the hell out of investors at how readily politics can screw with this business)

Am I missing something here? :)
I think this option would be in the too hard basket being an election year with all the bleaters around from last year plus the general public getting up in arms also, if chorus took this option the Govt could tighten contract roll out or even retender entire project,i think there will be much softer options being worked out behind the scenes between CFH and CNU,

brentk

16-01-2014, 09:58 AM

I think this option would be in the too hard basket being an election year with all the bleaters around from last year plus the general public getting up in arms also, if chorus took this option the Govt could tighten contract roll out or even retender entire project,i think there will be much softer options being worked out behind the scenes between CFH and CNU,

I would think the Govt would more likely be happy to try to end up with an outcome that didn't involve them. Especially involve them looking like they were giving a handout to big business. I also can't see the connection between Chorus changing its copper pricing & the Govt suddenly having the rights to retender or alter the UFB arrangement - presumably which are locked down in contracts the size of an encyclopedia britannica?

Also I guess a point I was trying to make is the 'nuclear' option perhaps could be pulled back to say a bit of carpet bombing, by not dropping all the way to 30kbps (which IMO if done would be to make a statement) - instead go somewhere in between - maybe 256 or even 512kbps - enough so 10mbps still looks slick & worth paying what it currently costs, but not so much as to incentivise ISP's to invest heavily in hardware duplication (which as fish pointed out would be going rapidly obsolete) or justify a knee-jerk reaction by the media/public/Govt.

bull....

16-01-2014, 10:19 AM

breakout on the charts

mrjeems

21-01-2014, 03:10 PM

Moody's downgrades Chorus from Baa2 to Baa3

Moody's Investors Service has today issued an announcement downgrading
Chorus' issuer and unsecured credit rating from Baa2 to Baa3, with negative
outlook.

Moody's had previously placed Chorus on review for possible downgrade,
following the release of the Commerce Commission's copper broadband (UBA)
pricing decision in November.

Chorus chief financial officer Andrew Carroll said the downgrade was
disappointing given that the Commission's pricing decision does not come into
effect until December 2014 and the range of initiatives Chorus continues to
explore to mitigate the financial impact of the Commission's final UBA
decision. Moody's decision will result in an immediate but modest increase
in the cost of Chorus' borrowing.

"As we explained in December, we are assessing all options available to us,
including cutting all discretionary activity, re-pricing commercial services,
generally managing for cash and assessing capital management options. We
have also commenced constructive discussions with Crown Fibre Holdings. While
this work continues, we cannot finalise our medium term strategy or capital
management settings.

"In addition, Chorus has appealed the Commission's initial UBA decision to
the High Court and requested that the Commission undertake economic cost
modelling of both UBA and UCLL pricing, which differs from its original
benchmarking approach, as allowed for by the legislation," he said.

Chorus is currently rated BBB, creditwatch negative, by Standard & Poor's.

silu

21-01-2014, 03:53 PM

Can't tell you how glad I am to be out of this one.

klid

21-01-2014, 05:29 PM

Can't tell you how glad I am to be out of this one.
But but but!! On the other hand, I see this stock as BUY.
Does anyone agree? I see everything (bad) is out in the air now. Things could get a lot better but not worse to the same extent?

silu

21-01-2014, 06:38 PM

But but but!! On the other hand, I see this stock as BUY.
Does anyone agree? I see everything (bad) is out in the air now. Things could get a lot better but not worse to the same extent?

Didn't say it wasn't worth buying. Great liquidity for short term trading for sure. I sold everything at $2.05.

couta1

21-01-2014, 07:03 PM

But but but!! On the other hand, I see this stock as BUY.
Does anyone agree? I see everything (bad) is out in the air now. Things could get a lot better but not worse to the same extent?
One word klid CAUTION no one on here knows exactly where this stock will end up just when everyone thought it couldn't get any worse it just did, maybe its worth a quick trade for some or a long term play like Milford but there's a lot better places to put your money at the moment.

Poet

21-01-2014, 09:03 PM

So Peter Dunne back as a minister today

Watch out for the quid pro quo

Harvey Specter

22-01-2014, 07:49 AM

So Peter Dunne back as a minister today

Watch out for the quid pro quo
His electorate moved up the roll out timetable.
He supports a delay to comcom implementation.

couta1

22-01-2014, 08:01 AM

Will be interesting to see if S&P downgrade chorus to BBB minus putting it below investment grade quality?

mrjeems

22-01-2014, 09:05 AM

Harvey Specter

22-01-2014, 09:27 AM

This downgrade wasnt unforseen - it just happened sooner than Chorus was expecting. I guess MOST of the bad news is out now but I'm waiting to hear whats happening around their dividends and results from discussions with CFH etc before putting money in.Considering the John Key "Could go Broke" quote, completely foreseen. It was just a matter of timing.

CNU Treasury would have been working overtime trying to get any change delayed until they had put out their plan on how they will deal with ComCom recommendation and also talking up their change of success in the court action with the ComCom.

Who trusts rating agencies anyway.

USbasedInvestor

22-01-2014, 09:57 AM

I am a US based individual investor who many years ago bought a small position in Telecom New Zealand. I sold a chunk of my Chorus shares on November 5th on the news, and the remainder at significantly lower prices to take a tax loss.

I just discovered this board, and will share my perspective on Chorus and hope you can provide me with some insights, as I will continue to follow Chorus should an investment opportunity arise.

Given the pricing decision, Chorus will have a substantial cash shortfall. As a result, Chorus must eliminate the dividend and make cost and service cuts. Even then Chorus will have a substantial cash shortfall. Unless the fibre rollout is to be stopped or delayed significantly (and nobody is talking about that), Chorus will have to come up with cash somewhere.

Politics appear to prevent overriding the pricing decision, absent a two year long review. Therefore, Chorus has to get the needed cash from: the government, increased debt, or issuing new shares.

From what I have read, the government is not willing to provide additional funding (politics, again). Crown Fibre Holdings has to live within its budget, and (I am not positive on this point) it does not appear they have the budget to just fund the Chorus shortfall. Chorus cannot issue debt to fund the shortfall because they will be too highly leveraged (debt was downgraded today and a negative outlook remains). That leaves only a new share issuance.

The problem with issuing shares is that 1) the stock has no dividend, making it less attractive. 2) if a dividend is maintained at a reasonable level (say 1/3 of the previous dividend), then the cash shortfall is that much greater and the issue must be larger. 3) The cash needed is large relative to Chorus’ market capitalization.

A stock issuance is unlikely without a dividend, and even with a dividend would be so large that the funds could only be raised at prices well below what Chorus has been trading at.

Why does Chorus not talk about delaying or stopping the fiber rollout to live within funds available, at least until the pricing review is done?

How are the politics likely to play out? Is one political party likely to cross over and agree to override the pricing decision, and if so, when would that likely be, given New Zealand’s election cycle?

I have seen a few folks post that all the bad news is out, or priced in or such. This is not just news - it is a serious cash shortfall that must be met, or plans changed a lot. Figuring out how the cash shortfall will be resolved is (to me) key to understanding where Chorus will trade, and when.

Do I have a good understanding of the situation Chorus is in?

Thanks for any help, and feel free to ask me any questions.

BIRMANBOY

22-01-2014, 10:12 AM

Hi there, you have stated many of the issues that surround this share. There is so much uncertainty with this situation that trying to come to grips with what could /may happen is akin to arm wrestling an octopus in my opinion. Its a unique and unbelievably complex environment and I think a lot of investors have either abandoned ship or shoved their shares in the drawer (me for one). All will be revealed in time and until then its only fit for pirates and steel testicled traders. The long term premise is sound its just what will it look like when all the political and financial BS has been disclosed. Could be a year or longer...who knows.
I am a US based individual investor who many years ago bought a small position in Telecom New Zealand. I sold a chunk of my Chorus shares on November 5th on the news, and the remainder at significantly lower prices to take a tax loss.

I just discovered this board, and will share my perspective on Chorus and hope you can provide me with some insights, as I will continue to follow Chorus should an investment opportunity arise.

Given the pricing decision, Chorus will have a substantial cash shortfall. As a result, Chorus must eliminate the dividend and make cost and service cuts. Even then Chorus will have a substantial cash shortfall. Unless the fibre rollout is to be stopped or delayed significantly (and nobody is talking about that), Chorus will have to come up with cash somewhere.

Politics appear to prevent overriding the pricing decision, absent a two year long review. Therefore, Chorus has to get the needed cash from: the government, increased debt, or issuing new shares.

From what I have read, the government is not willing to provide additional funding (politics, again). Crown Fibre Holdings has to live within its budget, and (I am not positive on this point) it does not appear they have the budget to just fund the Chorus shortfall. Chorus cannot issue debt to fund the shortfall because they will be too highly leveraged (debt was downgraded today and a negative outlook remains). That leaves only a new share issuance.

The problem with issuing shares is that 1) the stock has no dividend, making it less attractive. 2) if a dividend is maintained at a reasonable level (say 1/3 of the previous dividend), then the cash shortfall is that much greater and the issue must be larger. 3) The cash needed is large relative to Chorus’ market capitalization.

A stock issuance is unlikely without a dividend, and even with a dividend would be so large that the funds could only be raised at prices well below what Chorus has been trading at.

Why does Chorus not talk about delaying or stopping the fiber rollout to live within funds available, at least until the pricing review is done?

How are the politics likely to play out? Is one political party likely to cross over and agree to override the pricing decision, and if so, when would that likely be, given New Zealand’s election cycle?

I have seen a few folks post that all the bad news is out, or priced in or such. This is not just news - it is a serious cash shortfall that must be met, or plans changed a lot. Figuring out how the cash shortfall will be resolved is (to me) key to understanding where Chorus will trade, and when.

Do I have a good understanding of the situation Chorus is in?

Thanks for any help, and feel free to ask me any questions.