CNU - Chorus

[TimmyTP]

Indeed - I've tried, but can't speak Bureaucratian.

Thanks Sparky and Banksie for the interpretation.

[CJ]

Anyone want to break that all down into laymen's terms? I absolutely hate government speak and it doesn't make clear anything, as usual...


I second that.http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/b1e771b2/chorus-cops-13-percent-of-50-mln-telecommunications-levy.html

Not sure exactly why Chorus has to pay this as it is not a retailer.

In theory this should be a pass through cost in a regulated industry so it shouldn't be a major but maybe it is.

[CJ]

Doesn't mean we won't see some freakouts today though!Probably will :

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/8846541/UFB-rollout-costs-strike-bum-note-for-Chorus

[futurist]

Anyway all this crap just needs to be put to bed and lets start focussing on CNU, interesting opinion piece in stuff today:
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/8846541/UFB-rollout-costs-strike-bum-note-for-Chorus

Okay, let's forget about the debate on UFB and focus on CNU a bit more. Would you agree that we did have an amazing run of the share-market for the last 18 months? Coincidentally, multiple gigantic countries have finalised their political leaderships for another term during this period of time, which hopefully leads to some stability at the global level. While all major central banks were QE-ing which definitely increase the opacity of every market, we did pretty good, didn't we? Maybe our job level hasn't reached back to pre-crisis but both consumer and business confidences are up.

For CNU to drop its share price so much in this same period, obviously there are many theories. But let's not go into the details. Because we know as long as UFB is rolled out then it is time to cash in. Again because we agree that UFB is the future, so we could assume most people would want it enough to switch from broadband.

I have absolutely nothing against investor to stock up this share, no matter you do it for the capital gain or the dividends. We are all here for the money, aren't we? But I repeatedly question this: why now? Remember, QE-ing from the global level has in most cases flooded money into securities. That particular effect has been absent for CNU and to me that's already pretty strange if CNU's price remains the same. If it goes down during a rosy period, that means it has already been shielded from a full speed sliding down.

Maybe that does not concern you neither. Then what about the foreseeable break in QE? If CNU's share price does not benefit from QE, could it also be unaffected by its retraction? I don't know for CNU, but I am quite sure the retraction is going to affect interest rate, which affects everything including confidence. Are we sure that in a year or two time when UFB is readily available to 75% of our population, we would still in the same atmosphere as today, with the same kind of consumer confidence? In 2 years time when QE has officially stopped, the kiwi/dollar ratio would probably be very different and so would the price of petrol and many other life depending commodities.

I am just throwing some questions out here, please don't throw rocks back at me. All the best.

[RedWizzard]

On top of that there are those who are now conspicuously absent since posting the other day. Would be nice if people were honest, but hey..
Hope you don't me mean. I haven't been on for a few days and it looks like I missed something. For the record I've never been employed by Chorus or Telecom.

[Snow Leopard]

“On two occasions, I have been asked [by members of Parliament], 'Pray, Mr. Babbage, if you put into the machine wrong figures, will the right answers come out?' I am not able to rightly apprehend the kind of confusion of ideas that could provoke such a question.”


― Charles Babbage

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Mista_Trix]

Okay, let's forget about the debate on UFB and focus on CNU a bit more. Would you agree that we did have an amazing run of the share-market for the last 18 months? Coincidentally, multiple gigantic countries have finalised their political leaderships for another term during this period of time, which hopefully leads to some stability at the global level. While all major central banks were QE-ing which definitely increase the opacity of every market, we did pretty good, didn't we? Maybe our job level hasn't reached back to pre-crisis but both consumer and business confidences are up.

For CNU to drop its share price so much in this same period, obviously there are many theories. But let's not go into the details. Because we know as long as UFB is rolled out then it is time to cash in. Again because we agree that UFB is the future, so we could assume most people would want it enough to switch from broadband.

I have absolutely nothing against investor to stock up this share, no matter you do it for the capital gain or the dividends. We are all here for the money, aren't we? But I repeatedly question this: why now? Remember, QE-ing from the global level has in most cases flooded money into securities. That particular effect has been absent for CNU and to me that's already pretty strange if CNU's price remains the same. If it goes down during a rosy period, that means it has already been shielded from a full speed sliding down.

Maybe that does not concern you neither. Then what about the foreseeable break in QE? If CNU's share price does not benefit from QE, could it also be unaffected by its retraction? I don't know for CNU, but I am quite sure the retraction is going to affect interest rate, which affects everything including confidence. Are we sure that in a year or two time when UFB is readily available to 75% of our population, we would still in the same atmosphere as today, with the same kind of consumer confidence? In 2 years time when QE has officially stopped, the kiwi/dollar ratio would probably be very different and so would the price of petrol and many other life depending commodities.

I am just throwing some questions out here, please don't throw rocks back at me. All the best.

You make some really really interesting points.

Another worry is in the unlikely event that Labour / Greens get in, they seem to be on a bit of a bent to reconstruct traditional monopoly sectors. At least if national stay they are somewhat tied to it with promises. I do wonder how much lower the SP can go.

The company is in a good position, it should eventually deliver a good div, but how long will this all take? And do shareholders have the willpower, or will they jump out in the interum and come back when its all looking a little more certain??

[CJ]

Another worry is in the unlikely event that Labour / Greens get in, they seem to be on a bit of a bent to reconstruct traditional monopoly sectors. At least if national stay they are somewhat tied to it with promises. I do wonder how much lower the SP can go.I dont think this is a concern as it is already a fully regulated business. The only place to go from their is a non commercial return on assets (not viable) or making it an SOE (costly).

[biker]

This for Morningstar makes good reading! ( and yes I know there is lots of scepticism regarding Morningstar)



Latest recommendation report

Valuation: $3.60Last updated:27/06/13
Chorus' Lab Tour Highlights Strategies to Contain Rollout Costs

Investment rating

Chorus' fixed-line infrastructure assets are near monopoly and its network is costly to replicate, underpinning its narrow moat rating. We expect the roll-out of a fibre network, which covers 75% of New Zealand, to be on time and on budget. With rising data demand for rich multimedia content, we expect this to be the main driver for consumers to upgrade from copper to fibre technology. The risk of a slower take-up rate is mitigated by the existing copper network, which will continue to generate return. We believe the risk of mobile and wireless substitution to be overplayed given the technological difference and, more importantly, premium pricing for wireless on a per-unit basis.

Event
Chorus' Lab Tour Highlights Strategies to Contain Rollout


Recommendation impact (last updated: 27/06/2013)


Event analysis

Chorus' Lab Tour Highlights Strategies to Contain Rollout Costs

Chorus provided a tour of its Auckland fibre lab last month. The tour included a demonstration of fibre equipment at the exchange, a mock-up of ducts and fibre connection from the exchange to the premise, and technologies at the premise. There is no change to our NZD 3.60 fair value estimate, and our investment view is unchanged. The stock is undervalued, trading at a discount to our fair value estimate. We believe regulatory concerns on wholesale broadband prices are priced into the current share price. We expect a better outcome from the New Zealand Commerce Commission (ComCom) when the final decision is released in August. However, the regulatory uncertainty will remain a barrier for the share price to converge towards our fair value estimate in the short term. Chorus' narrow economic moat is based on efficient scale and cost advantage. Its nationwide assets are essentially monopolies, and difficult to replicate. Post fibre rollout, the company's fibre assets will cover 75% of New Zealand's population.

With capital expenditure guidance revised higher at the fiscal 2013 result in February, the focus is on strategies to lower connection costs at the initial phase of the rollout. Chorus will install terminals between the cabinets and the premise. In the initial rollout, fibre will be rolled out from the cabinets to the terminals to defer upfront investments. The remaining fibre is laid on demand when a customer signs up to a fibre service. Existing fibre from the fibre-to-the-node network, or 40% of the existing network, will also be reused. Another advantage is that power is not needed, providing flexibility on the location of the terminals. The tour reaffirmed our view that costs per premise will decline over the long term as scalability of the project increases once common infrastructure is completed. A fibre network also benefits from lower maintenance costs as the number of lines between the exchange and a cabinet is reduced. Chorus earlier noted fibre fault rates for the overall network, particularly at the distribution cabinets are half of that for a copper network.

[Jay]

I read the above as well.
They do make a good point which maybe has been overlooked by some by jusy focusing on the UFB issue and that is "The risk of a slower take-up rate is mitigated by the existing copper network, which will continue to generate return."

[futurist]

I read the above as well.
They do make a good point which maybe has been overlooked by some by jusy focusing on the UFB issue and that is "The risk of a slower take-up rate is mitigated by the existing copper network, which will continue to generate return."

I don't doubt there are certain rationales behind Morningstar's analysis and also the recommendations of the share. In fact, I don't think their target price has changed that much for the last 18 months or so. Also, Forsyth Barr recommends to accumulate and RBS Equities recommends to buy.

So forget about SP and let's take a look at the shareholding change. Comparing between 6/1/12 and 21/6/13, the total shares held by the top 100 shareholders have dropped from 90.22% to 75.97%. Guess who has gradually decreased their shareholdings?

Maybe there are no relationships between the two. I mean one person could recommend you to buy his stuff while he is selling them out, it doesn't mean his stuff is no good. But I think we should all be informed at the very least.

P.S. There are lots of laid-off going on among i-banks in the last 3 months, sometimes I think I trust that figure more than what they say.

[futurist]

You make some really really interesting points.

Another worry is in the unlikely event that Labour / Greens get in, they seem to be on a bit of a bent to reconstruct traditional monopoly sectors. At least if national stay they are somewhat tied to it with promises. I do wonder how much lower the SP can go.

The company is in a good position, it should eventually deliver a good div, but how long will this all take? And do shareholders have the willpower, or will they jump out in the interum and come back when its all looking a little more certain??

Thanks. I tend to agree with CJ that CNU is a monopoly emerged from regulatory decisions, and it will always be like that because politicians like to exercise their influences from time to time. So I would rather treat them as noise. The real signal, or the indicators I care about, would simply be revenue and cost. Could CNU generate the income they predict, and run under the projected cost? If income from UFB is debatable, what about the cost? Do you think it would go up or down or stay the same in the coming years given what is going on in the global environment?

Obviously Morningstar or others would tell us what they think, but nevertheless we should think about that too.

[CJ]

Thanks. I tend to agree with CJ that CNU is a monopoly emerged from regulatory decisions, and it will always be like that because politicians like to exercise their influences from time to time. So I would rather treat them as noise. The real signal, or the indicators I care about, would simply be revenue and cost. Could CNU generate the income they predict, and run under the projected cost? If income from UFB is debatable, what about the cost? Do you think it would go up or down or stay the same in the coming years given what is going on in the global environment?

Obviously Morningstar or others would tell us what they think, but nevertheless we should think about that too.I dont have much concern re revenue and cost regarding UFB. My concern is on Revenue for the old copper network. ComCom wants this to be very cheap which will hinder UFB growth and cause revenues to drop.

[futurist]

I dont have much concern re revenue and cost regarding UFB. My concern is on Revenue for the old copper network. ComCom wants this to be very cheap which will hinder UFB growth and cause revenues to drop.

Fair point, and given this kind of negotiation between a regulatory agent and a regulated business would go on, how often the agent would try to do the business a favor? They are born to have an opposite view on what matters the most.

Maybe we could ask ourselves this question: what could be an element that supports a surprise of revenue shoot-up? We know the downside risk, but is there anything on the upside to balance that out?

[Silverlight]

Craigs have upgraded Chorus from a Sell to a Hold.

[futurist]

And the price rebounds accordingly...

Good one!

Craigs also chose CNU as the top pick in 2012, in which if we exclude the last month of 2012 then CNU did pretty well trading between $3 and $3.70 during the whole time. They are so accurate!

[CJ]

Maybe we could ask ourselves this question: what could be an element that supports a surprise of revenue shoot-up? We know the downside risk, but is there anything on the upside to balance that out?I dont think you should expect a surprise revenue shoot up - it should be a constant/reliable yeild share.

The issue currently is everyone is pricing in a lower dps based on the ComCom draft pricing. Should that pricing be adjusted upwards, the share price should increase to compensate for a higher level of dps, and then revert back to a constant ~7% dividend yeild, much like Vector.

To clarify, this is not a growth share, it is a yeild share, but with a potential (short term?) value play should the ComCom pricing be overruled.

[futurist]

I dont think you should expect a surprise revenue shoot up - it should be a constant/reliable yeild share.

The issue currently is everyone is pricing in a lower dps based on the ComCom draft pricing. Should that pricing be adjusted upwards, the share price should increase to compensate for a higher level of dps, and then revert back to a constant ~7% dividend yeild, much like Vector.

To clarify, this is not a growth share, it is a yeild share, but with a potential (short term?) value play should the ComCom pricing be overruled.

I think you have answered the question: the surprise revenue shoot up is the constant and reliable yield. It is a surprise because the market is not betting on or believing that yet, hence the definition of a surprise right? It is not a surprise for a typical yield share to result with what you said (e.g. Vector-like with 7% div yield), but at this very moment, it seems to me for that to happen it requires an element of surprise (like CC pricing being overruled in August as you said).

So if we go back to my original question: why now? I think we come up with one answer: betting on the element of surprise. Otherwise if one is looking for yield, they could always buy in later instead of now. Because the yield is not going to change substantially comparing to the risk of exposure, the core rationale for buying now is not yield-oriented.

[CJ]

So if we go back to my original question: why now? Otherwise if one is looking for yield, they could always buy in later instead of now. Why not now. Unless you think the surprise will be on the downside.

Buy now and get a good yeild, plus the potential value increase should Comcom be overruled. If you buy later, you only get the yeild.

I think your "why now" question applied to those buying above $3 where there was the risk of a downside surprise, which came when ComCom set out $8 as the price for Copper.

Disc: Bought a small amount a month or so ago and may double down if it goes lower. Never worked for (directly or indirectly) Chorus or Telecom.

[futurist]

Why not now. Unless you think the surprise will be on the downside.

Buy now and get a good yeild, plus the potential value increase should Comcom be overruled. If you buy later, you only get the yeild.

I think your "why now" question applied to those buying above $3 where there was the risk of a downside surprise, which came when ComCom set out $8 as the price for Copper.

Disc: Bought a small amount a month or so ago and may double down if it goes lower. Never worked for (directly or indirectly) Chorus or Telecom.

Okay, as long as the rationale of buy now ties with the hope of potential capital gain of course I could understand. But that to me is more based on chance. Also I don't think if someone is looking for a "Vector-like" yield share they should buy now with CNU simply because it is not a boring and yield-only share just yet as you point out. If they buy later, they will only get the yield, but perhaps that suit them better too in terms of risk tolerance.

For me, I do worry about surprise on the downside, like cost. Well I am sure as time goes we will get a better idea of labor or material costs from many companies' reports and various economic studies.

Who knows, maybe if it drops further while you would double down, I may just get in and join you as well :)

[Silverlight]

Okay, as long as the rationale of buy now ties with the hope of potential capital gain of course I could understand. But that to me is more based on chance. Also I don't think if someone is looking for a "Vector-like" yield share they should buy now with CNU simply because it is not a boring and yield-only share just yet as you point out. If they buy later, they will only get the yield, but perhaps that suit them better too in terms of risk tolerance.

For me, I do worry about surprise on the downside, like cost. Well I am sure as time goes we will get a better idea of labor or material costs from many companies' reports and various economic studies.

Who knows, maybe if it drops further while you would double down, I may just get in and join you as well :)

As a simple monopoly business model Chorus is exactly like Vector, in that it owns a piece of infrastructure, that is hard to replicate and the government regulates the prices it can charge for said infrastructure.

What would send Chorus share price to $2? to $1.50? to $1?

I don't see that happening based on earnings forecasts, but interested what you see given your view that their is still downside risks.

[futurist]

As a simple monopoly business model Chorus is exactly like Vector, in that it owns a piece of infrastructure, that is hard to replicate and the government regulates the prices it can charge for said infrastructure.

What would send Chorus share price to $2? to $1.50? to $1?

I don't see that happening based on earnings forecasts, but interested what you see given your view that their is still downside risks.

Sorry, when I refer to "Vector-like" in my previous post I was linking it back to CJ's idea and so it may not align with the general consent, hence the quotations I put there. Besides, VCT has been quite stable trading within a range for the last 18 months so I think we could argue for now VCT and CNU is not yet similar (which is CJ's point). But let's not discuss a term that is used in different contexts anyway.

To your question, I honestly don't know. I won't even predict the SP to a particular point because that is against my own belief system. I fear that costs would be higher than forecast but that is more of a guess from the macro variables than anything else. I am happy to be wrong, so let's just wait and see.

Maybe I will answer you this. Personally buying CNU is for the dividend yield. For capital gain, I will look elsewhere. So for CNU to be "Vector-like" (again CJ's point), I will wait a bit. It does not matter if it goes down or up, as long as there are stabilizing done deals then it is good time to get in. I think at some level, I am against the preach of buying CNU now based on the dividend yield rationale, because that is not really the key motivation behind reflected in the discussion. If one buys now, it is for the capital gain betting against a lost from the regulatory agent.

[CJ]

The vector like returns will only arrive once the regulatory issues are resolved. Until then, the uncertainty means the share price will be volatile as we have seen. I don't know where the bottom Is, otherwise I wouldn't have bought last month.

Re costs, in theory they should be added to the RAB on which the regulated return is based.

[Mista_Trix]

Shares go up, and shares go down. But when they go up on healthy numbers, we should be thankful. CNU is up 8c today to $2.50, with two strong days in price recovery. Around 600,000 traded so far today.

I wish I'd had some $ to chuck in at the $2.28 point, but alas I couldnt free any up.

[Jim]

I wish I'd had some $ to chuck in at the $2.28 point, but alas I couldnt free any up.

I wanted to buy at 10,000 at $2.30 but when I look at the depth they was only 1500 on offer so I just gave up.

[hilskin]

Broadband policy faces probability of repeated political intervention

The regime governing New Zealand's ultra-fast broadband roll-out risks "the real probability of repeated political intervention as those in public office exercise their legislated powers to safeguard taxpayer investments and secure their political objecti

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/772a6175/broadband-policy-faces-probability-of-repeated-political-intervention.html (http://investmentresearchgroup.createsend1.com/t/r-l-bjysyk-jrldiuktdk-y/)

[hilskin]

Yes Sparky, thought i'd add the article to help reassure the believers. I'm a believer ;)

[Mista_Trix]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10894730

These kind of deals in the long run can only be good news for Chorus.

[comspec]

I just signed up with Telecom's new VDSL service. As I posted in the TEL thread:
Great minds think alike Sparky. I have a technician turning up later this week to install the VDSL. Call centre staff member did say I’d be very impressed with the speed differentiation from ADSL2. Interesting comment they made with VDSL signups also and lack of interest in UFB. Cost-wise works out to be $10 month more as all my products with Telecom. I’ll post my speedtest results when it’s installed. (Current = Download 13.56Mbps, Upload 1.10 Mbps, Source = http://speedtest.telecom.co.nz/)

Tad concerned that the staff member more-or-less talked me out of UFB, don’t know how this will reflect on the Chorus UFB uptake.

[spotty]

My speedtest came out at download 15.88 and upload at .97. Would be interested to hear what speeds you guys get after the vdsl installed.
Surely this must work in Chorus best interest if its another product they can provide to bridge the gap between getting fibre connected and Telecom would appear to be pushing it instead of fibre. The fibre rollout in my area is not due for another 18 months so it could be a starter to bridge the gap. It appears Chorus is starting to branch into other partnerships with other company's to provide other non mainstream core services which could be good for shareholders, saw this add on trademe http://www.trademe.co.nz/jobs/customer-service/call-centre/listing-605596234.htm
I put a small order in @ 233 cents and had it 90% filled so I'm happy with the rise over the past week.

Disc now holding CNU
spotty

[Matt]

It appears Chorus is starting to branch into other partnerships with other company's to provide other non mainstream core services which could be good for shareholders, saw this add on trademe http://www.trademe.co.nz/jobs/customer-service/call-centre/listing-605596234.htm
I put a small order in @ 233 cents and had it 90% filled so I'm happy with the rise over the past week.

Disc now holding CNU
spotty
Alright maybe I'm a bit thick here, have the same look when the wife asks me why it took 5 hours to have a discussion about sport at the pub with my co-workers.

From reading this it first (no pun there) looks like First Security Services runs services for a National provider but the person who authored it is a Bernadette.wichman@chorus.co.nz so is this Chorus providing a National service or has Chorus purchased this Company?. Probably be the worst case I've seen of a poorly written type job advertisement, it just makes no sense whatsoever. Investing in a Company that has such a poor concept of communication or grammar for that matter, makes me think what type of people do Chorus employ to look after our investments? High School drop-outs maybe?

Can anyone make any sense out of this?

[comspec]

Alright maybe I'm a bit thick here, have the same look when the wife asks me why it took 5 hours to have a discussion about sport at the pub with my co-workers.

From reading this it first (no pun there) looks like First Security Services runs services for a National provider but the person who authored it is a Bernadette.wichman@chorus.co.nz so is this Chorus providing a National service or has Chorus purchased this Company?. Probably be the worst case I've seen of a poorly written type job advertisement, it just makes no sense whatsoever. Investing in a Company that has such a poor concept of communication or grammar for that matter, makes me think what type of people do Chorus employ to look after our investments? High School drop-outs maybe?

Can anyone make any sense out of this?

Here's the ad below. Yes I agree very poorly written but it does appear Chorus is the client or is it someone else who is the Chorus client. Either way this is not a core service of Chorus. Does certainly not make sense form my point either.

Security Contact Centre Operators
Listing #: 605596234


Company:
First Security Guard Services Ltd

Location:
Hamilton, Waikato

Type:
Full time, Permanent

Listed:
Tue, 18 Jun

Your reference #:
hamilton

FIRST Security Guard Services Ltd in New Zealand’s leading Security Organisation with branches throughout New Zealand. Our parent company ISS A/S is based in Denmark and is the 4th largest private employer in the World with circa 540,000 employees.

Can you:
Leap tall buildings in a single bound?

Can you listen to people without interrupting or jumping to conclusions?

Can you collaborate with your super team so you can be an effective trouble shooter?

You can turn an unhappy customer into a happy one by stepping in and saving the day all while remaining calm and collected!

You are a silver tongued multi mouth!

Busy call queues don’t stress you!, you get right to the heart of the matter effectively and efficiently all whilst making the customer feel like the most important person!

You can switch between applications without the need to pull your hair out all whilst talking, watching, reading and gazing into the crystal ball staying 3 steps ahead of your customer!

You will be able to change direction on the spin of a dime without falling out of the sky and be happy to do so!
If this truly sounds like you then read on..............

We are seeking experienced contact centre operators. Our client is a national service provider and we need reliable, professional, work focused people to join our fast moving vibrant team.

You will have relevant and recent call centre experience; preferably with soft phone software and MS applications, even more so if you have security monitoring experience and/or the knowledge of cardax systems.

Our client operates a 24/7 security operations centre so we are looking to fill the following roles. Full time Part Time On Call

The shift entails: Rotating 12 hour shifts, 4 days on and 4 days off Monday to Sunday rotating (you must be able to work a Saturday, Sunday or public holiday on a rotating shift)

A few flexible staff for part time and/or on call work on rotation
Our successful applicants will be fluent in written and verbal English, with a confident phone manner.

Other key skills and attributes include: Strong attention to detail and accuracy Sound geographical knowledge of New Zealand Confident typing & computer skills with the ability to operate multiple systems In this dynamic environment your great organisational skills coupled with the onsite training you will receive in security operations and system training will ensure your success in our business.

You will be able to deal with multiple tasks and time pressures. Your demonstrated effective negotiation skills, attention to detail and superb communication skills will ensure that roadblocks are removed and the creation of a team culture with shared purpose and unified commitment allows excellent results to be achieved.

This is a great role for an innovative, results orientated person who thrives on a challenge and has a successful track record in telecommunications and/or security.

As this role is in a security environment applicants must be able to pass a stringent security background check and be able to obtain, at their own expense, a Certificate of Approval (Security License). It’s important that you are not colour blind due to the alarms software that we operate.
If this sounds like you, don’t muck about! Contact me ASAP: Bernadette Wichman

Bernadette.wichman@chorus.co.nz

Previous applicants need not apply.

Applicants for this position should have NZ residency or a valid NZ work visa.

[winner69]

Jeez ....be superman (girl) for 15 bucks an hour

[Slowlearna]

REL: 0944 HRS Chorus Limited (NS)

GENERAL: CNU: Government releases TSO discussion document

STOCK EXCHANGE ANNOUNCEMENT

9 July 2013

Government releases TSO discussion document

The Government has today released the attached discussion document on the
review of the Telecommunications Services Obligation (TSO) with submissions
on the discussion document due by 20 August 2013.

Chorus' General Counsel, Vanessa Oakley, welcomed the review as an
opportunity to consider a fit for purpose TSO framework that acknowledges the
significant change in industry structure and the Government's fibre vision.

Chorus' wholesale services that enable the provision of the retail TSO (and
broadband) services today have prices that are regulated under standard terms
determinations, the UFB contract, the RBI contract and the open access deeds
of undertaking. There is currently no CPI or other adjustment on Chorus'
prices. Chorus will need to consider carefully any economic impact of any
proposal to extend its TSO obligations.

"We also look forward to the release of the Government's wider discussion
document on the regulatory framework, announced by the Minister. This will
form a significant part of the discussion on a coherent framework that
ensures a sustainable and efficient transition to fibre for the years ahead,
of which TSO is a part" she said.

[Brooker]

Here's the ad below. Yes I agree very poorly written but it does appear Chorus is the client or is it someone else who is the Chorus client. Either way this is not a core service of Chorus. Does certainly not make sense form my point either.

Confused at that also and agree it be one of the most feebly scripted job ads ever. So I thought why not do the next best thing and write her and ask some questions.

From: xxx [mailto:]
Sent: Tuesday, 9 July 2013 12:29 p.m.
To: Bernadette Wichman
Subject: Positions for Security Contact Centre Operators
Dear Bernadette
In relation to your placed advertisement for ‘Security Contact Centre Operators’ on TradeMe jobs I would find it most helpful if you could please clarify a few points in regards to the position(s) sought by Chorus NZ Ltd.
Could you please clarify the following points:
Is the employer for the position(s) First Security Guard Services or Chorus NZ Ltd?
Is Chorus NZ Ltd the national service provider or Chorus is providing security services to another national telecommunications client being Telecom NZ Ltd?
I ask this for clarification as my past roles have included vast experience with telecommunications providers from an IT and security prospective with busy call centre supervisory roles.

Kind regards
XXX

The reply:

On Tue, Jul 9, 2013 at 3:20 PM, Bernadette Wichman <Bernadette.Wichman@chorus.co.nz> wrote:
Hi xxx,
The ad as stated is for contact service reps in a contact centre. A person would be employed by First Security because of the nature of the work, security however we work inside the Chorus building and we operate by Chorus values.

And that was all, no signature
My reply back:

From: xxx [mailto:
Sent: Tuesday, 9 July 2013 4:42 p.m.
To: Bernadette Wichman
Subject: Re: Positions for Security Contact Centre Operators
Dear Bernadette

Thank you for your response to my inquiry.

It’s concerning that you quote ‘Chorus values’ when you respond so rudely and arrogantly to general enquiries and is this a normal way you respond to your customers.

Please send me your managers direct contact details as I would like to discuss your response with them.

Kind regards
xxx

And her reply:

Hi xxx,

The person you will need to speak to is

Pierre Moseley
Phone 07 8345822
SOC Manager



And that was all, I found this Pierre Moseleys Linkedin profile http://nz.linkedin.com/pub/pierre-moseley/b/9a0/b6a who portrays himself as a Security Operations Centre Manager at Chorus.

This does raise a couple of questions: Why are Chorus in this line of business as it’s not core to their Telecommunications business and are they trying to circumnavigate by using a third party when it’s Chorus who runs the show. Wonder if this is a thing which has been approved by the Commerce Commission. Second, why do they employ such illiterate rude people.

Currently hold Chorus and hate to see people like this running the show. Suppose we have to think ourselves lucky this Bernadette doesn't write the Market Releases. :scared:

[Silverlight]

Sorry, when I refer to "Vector-like" in my previous post I was linking it back to CJ's idea and so it may not align with the general consent, hence the quotations I put there. Besides, VCT has been quite stable trading within a range for the last 18 months so I think we could argue for now VCT and CNU is not yet similar (which is CJ's point). But let's not discuss a term that is used in different contexts anyway.

To your question, I honestly don't know. I won't even predict the SP to a particular point because that is against my own belief system. I fear that costs would be higher than forecast but that is more of a guess from the macro variables than anything else. I am happy to be wrong, so let's just wait and see.

Maybe I will answer you this. Personally buying CNU is for the dividend yield. For capital gain, I will look elsewhere. So for CNU to be "Vector-like" (again CJ's point), I will wait a bit. It does not matter if it goes down or up, as long as there are stabilizing done deals then it is good time to get in. I think at some level, I am against the preach of buying CNU now based on the dividend yield rationale, because that is not really the key motivation behind reflected in the discussion. If one buys now, it is for the capital gain betting against a lost from the regulatory agent.


Futurist, I think your post sums up nicely peoples different risk profiles and views on different companies, at that no two investors profiles or outlooks are the same.

You have placed Chorus in the dividend bucket, and therefore would only buy the company when there is greater certainty around earnings and thus dividends. This probably suits your risk profile, which is totally different to mine. I don't really look for dividends, other than a means for indirect capital growth, i.e. a company not paying dividends today, but announces one tomorrow, may be then perceived as lower risk, and therefore trades higher after the confirmation.

I bought Chorus, not for the dividend, but the expectation that once clarity around its dividends are made, the price would appreciate, I then sell for the capital gain. If between the time of my purchase and sale I receive a dividend, great, but my main focus is the capital gain. This is part of my investment strategy, which is suited to me. I think this is an area most investors underestimate (whether intentional or not), is knowing their own risk profile, and then developing their own strategy to achieve this profile.

[BIRMANBOY]

Light from within.....In Plato's Philebus (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/wiki/Philebus) dialogue, Socrates refers back to the same usage of 'know thyself' from Phaedrus] to build an example of the ridiculous for Protarchus. Socrates says, as he did in Phaedrus, that people make themselves appear ridiculous when they are trying to know obscure things before they know themselves.[28] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-28) Plato also alluded to the fact that understanding 'thyself,' would have a greater yielded factor of understanding the nature of a human being. Syllogistically, understanding onself would enable thyself to have an understanding of others as a result.

Futurist, I think your post sums up nicely peoples different risk profiles and views on different companies, at that no two investors profiles or outlooks are the same.

You have placed Chorus in the dividend bucket, and therefore would only buy the company when there is greater certainty around earnings and thus dividends. This probably suits your risk profile, which is totally different to mine. I don't really look for dividends, other than a means for indirect capital growth, i.e. a company not paying dividends today, but announces one tomorrow, may be then perceived as lower risk, and therefore trades higher after the confirmation.

I bought Chorus, not for the dividend, but the expectation that once clarity around its dividends are made, the price would appreciate, I then sell for the capital gain. If between the time of my purchase and sale I receive a dividend, great, but my main focus is the capital gain. This is part of my investment strategy, which is suited to me. I think this is an area most investors underestimate (whether intentional or not), is knowing their own risk profile, and then developing their own strategy to achieve this profile.

[Mista_Trix]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/8901056/Any-help-for-Chorus-should-be-well-considered

[RedWizzard]

My speedtest came out at download 15.88 and upload at .97. Would be interested to hear what speeds you guys get after the vdsl installed.
I've been on VDSL for nearly a year. My current speedtest results are 59.20 down and 9.47 up. With a bit of tweaking I can actually achieve the artificial limits of 70 Mbps down and 10 Mbps up on my connection. And just as well because my neighbourhood is not scheduled for fibre before Jun 2016.



Surely this must work in Chorus best interest if its another product they can provide to bridge the gap between getting fibre connected and Telecom would appear to be pushing it instead of fibre. The fibre rollout in my area is not due for another 18 months so it could be a starter to bridge the gap.
It's better speeds than the low-end fibre plans (which are 30/10). So it's not so much bridging the gap from ADSL to fibre, it's an alternative to fibre. An unregulated alternative. And Chorus could lift the 70/10 limit whenever they like. I estimate my line is capable of close to 100/50 speeds. Increased VDSL uptake can only be good for Chorus really.

[Jay]

My current ADSL2 is download 10.11, upload 0.78 , so a bit slower than yours. Used the same test as you linked to.

(I am in a reasonably central Auckland suburb).

I got the impression Telecom wanted to sell VDSL today, and were looking forward to selling fibre in around a year or two.

I'm only about 15 km from Queen street (eastern Suburbs) Mine is 13.8 up load and 0.84 down - also sure it used to be about 3-4 download not that long ago - have not changed anything or is everyone ADSL2 where possible now??
Have a relativley new modem after my previous one packed a sad.
The box for fibre is just around the corner but not scheduled to the area for a year or two I think

[Slowlearna]

In the deep south and current speeds are 12.19 and upload @ .91.
Have a mate who has just changed to fibre and his speeds are 8 and 8, they have told him that it takes 10 days to settle down and get top speeds.
I will post again when he is at top speed. He is a hard core gamer and could not wait to get fibre. Me think there are many more like him.
Why would it take ten days to settle down? anyone have an idea

[TimmyTP]

In the deep south and current speeds are 12.19 and upload @ .91.
Have a mate who has just changed to fibre and his speeds are 8 and 8, they have told him that it takes 10 days to settle down and get top speeds.
I will post again when he is at top speed. He is a hard core gamer and could not wait to get fibre. Me think there are many more like him.
Why would it take ten days to settle down? anyone have an idea
As far as I understand it, the modems automatically tune themselves to get the fastest speed they can reliably maintain & this could take several days as they 'feel their way'.
This (http://www.skyuser.co.uk/forum/sky-dlm/23760-what-dlm-everything-you-need-know.html) might explain it a bit better.

[TimmyTP]

TimmyTP - With VDSL, Telecom told me there is a "dynamic line technology" feature which helps boost your speeds over the first ten days, which was a point they laboured to me when I signed up. I mentioned this in my post the other day. (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?8673-CNU-Chorus&p=415761&viewfull=1#post415761)

I will post back my thoughts on the technology once its been installed (I am expecting a technician this afternoon at home).
Yep sounds a lot like a Telecom corruption of DLM.

Interested in feedback on VDSL, but I'm not sure it is a 'bridge between ADSL and fibre' for everyone. My understanding is that VDSL will only work if you are within 1km or so of the cabinet, so presumably that would leave fibre as the only practical solution for many locations. I hope that means good news for Chorus longer term; less likely that the investment in fibre will be a white elephant.

[CJ]

My understanding is that VDSL will only work if you are within 1km or so of the cabinet, so presumably that would leave fibre as the only practical solution for many locations. I hope that means good news for Chorus longer term; less likely that the investment in fibre will be a white elephant.I checked and VDSL is not available for me so I have to wait for Fibre.

[andysh]

Yep sounds a lot like a Telecom corruption of DLM.

Interested in feedback on VDSL, but I'm not sure it is a 'bridge between ADSL and fibre' for everyone. My understanding is that VDSL will only work if you are within 1km or so of the cabinet, so presumably that would leave fibre as the only practical solution for many locations. I hope that means good news for Chorus longer term; less likely that the investment in fibre will be a white elephant.

That is correct, VDSL only works on high quality copper lines, which is basically determined by the length. Where fiber works on longer connections and is more stable.

I think people need to stop thinking it is a purely internet infrastructure. Copper went in for phones, and forever evolved. Fiber has the potential to send transmissions at the speed of light, just the nodes on each end that are restricting speeds (as well as loss in single over distance so need boosters, but that's another topic..).

What I think fiber is, its a new secure, stable infrastructure to move information around. Yes there will be wireless but how secure will this be compared to fiber? There is also stability issues with wireless (weather, power at remote sites etc). Have to admit there are also problems with fiber to, the cable can get cut..

Not to long from now, TV channels will be apps on your tv, with the content delivered via fiber. No more set-top boxes, not more expensive transmission gear. It will also allow to have the tv channels a lot more interactive as well (just need to look at the EPL, hopefully they will create an app for the Samsung TVs, I believe TVNZ already has one?).

Fiber will never be a white elephant, but the timeline for it to become fully utilised is still awhile away.

andysh

[andysh]

For some reason can't edit the post. Anyways I do hold CNU, but are not in the industry, just interested in tech.

[CJ]

Good news - I saw UFB ads from chorus and telecom tonight

Bad news - they were bod crap and didn't 'tell the story' of why you need UFB. In fact other than the text at the end, you wouldn't even know what the ads were about.

[Major von Tempsky]

Thanks Sparky, some goalposts to look for.
Technicals are for when there is absolutely nothing happening otherwise and are nearly always wrong.

[CJ]

ACC has sold down 1% to 6.19% at an average price of $2.71

[BIRMANBOY]

So our ACC rates should be dropping then...i'm not sure whether the ACC investing/playing the market with their sizeable positions in many NZ shares is a good thing or not. They seem to be quite active and my gut feeling is they have been very successfull. What happens when they start losing money ? Its not what you would consider ultra conservative positioning is it.
ACC has sold down 1% to 6.19% at an average price of $2.71

[Silverlight]

So our ACC rates should be dropping then...i'm not sure whether the ACC investing/playing the market with their sizeable positions in many NZ shares is a good thing or not. They seem to be quite active and my gut feeling is they have been very successfull. What happens when they start losing money ? Its not what you would consider ultra conservative positioning is it.

$65m in Chorus, when your portfolio is $16b+ is only a 0.4% weight. Not a very big position really.

[CJ]

$65m in Chorus, when your portfolio is $16b+ is only a 0.4% weight. Not a very big position really.Better than being in US Treasury stock

[Silverlight]

Better than being in US Treasury stock

Well 2012 AR says they had $700m odd in global bonds, guessing a fair few of these would be US or Japanese treasuries, given their proportion in the global bond indices.

[Slowlearna]

CNU is up. Some news I've missed?

[Slowlearna]

I found this good PR

http://business.scoop.co.nz/2013/07/24/shake-rattle-and-corporate-social-responsibility/

A Flash Survey of business online responses to the recent earthquakes in New Zealand.
Who were the Good Business Eggs?


Chorus: “Due to the inability to access certain buildings there may be some disruption to the provision of services to end-users. Chorus will contact any end users directly if we are unable to meet prior appointments. We apologise for this disruption and we are focused on returning to business as usual as soon as it is safe to do so. Chorus Wellington staff. The call has been made that we shouldn’t go into work tomorrow. They want to thoroughly check all our buildings. Card access to all our buildings has been disabled. Stay at home and stay safe. Please post on your timelines and share with colleagues. We will keep you updated over the course of the day tomorrow.”

[CJ]

Nope. Sometimes shares just go up.A lot of postive 'IT" type talk in the "mood of the boardroom". Particularly the one by the Telecom CEO who hints they are working on a TV product (which would require fibre).

[fish]

Have no doubt the future is fibre .
not only will it transform much business ,assist in reducing travel,etc -its the future for entertainment.It will rapidly become an integral part of life.

[Mista_Trix]

http://www.fastcoexist.com/1682659/the-future-of-google-s-plan-to-bring-the-entire-world-internet-with-balloons#1

At least for now, Google's Project Loon idea is still a long way away.

[RedWizzard]

At the moment, my download speed is 12Mbps, upload is 10Mbps. They told me that it will get faster overnight as the exchange software does its optimisation. I should expect around 40Mbps in time, as I am close to the local exchange box.

It will improve, but it won't improve that much. I would guess you either have internal wiring issues or you're a long way from the cabinet/exchange. Do you know what the attenuation is? It should tell you somewhere in the modem's webpages. Do you have VDSL capable master filter fitted? There's a lot of good info available to sort out these sorts of issues here: http://www.geekzone.co.nz/forums.asp?forumid=90&topicid=105744

[RedWizzard]

my friend at the BOP council already host there network drives on VM ware and are testing logon and run their windows machines live. No more browsers for them so when fibre comes in they expect host the network drives anywhere they want or just in house. They are looking to run java solutions and not HMTL 5 browser solutions. Meaning the fibre will bring big savings for big business and let users run there windows or mac machines in virtual space.
As a business if you have a lot of users connecting to VMs or remote desktops then fibre might make a difference, but the users don't really need fibre for that. I was using remote desktop to servers in Sydney on ADSL for several years - the per-user bandwidth requirements are quite low.

[Soviet]

And that was all, I found this Pierre Moseleys Linkedin profile http://nz.linkedin.com/pub/pierre-moseley/b/9a0/b6a who portrays himself as a Security Operations Centre Manager at Chorus.
Second, why do they employ such illiterate rude people.
Currently hold Chorus and hate to see people like this running the show. Suppose we have to think ourselves lucky this Bernadette doesn't write the Market Releases. :scared:

Use to work with this Pierre Moseley in corrections couple of years back. Big fat arrogant south African that was the most useless devious lying manipulative person most of the colleagues had ever met. Heard over xmas time he had gone from there and most were glad to see the back of him. I for one thought chorus employed competent people but this is really scrapping the bottom of the barrel, this guy couldn't even manage to eat his lunch without spilling it down himself then blame it on someone else.

[Stranger_Danger]

The above comment is probably defamatory.

[CJ]

The above comment is probably defamatory.not if its true

Disc: legal statement, not confirming the quote

[GR8DAY]

actually, my desktop computer now gets around 38mbps download, and 9-10mbps upload. Very very nice.

My laptop via wifi still gets slower speeds, but thats probably because of my crappy internal wifi setup. (16mbps down and 9mbps up at 2.4ghz, but 20.1mbps down if i switch to 5ghz for my wifi).

I will be reorganising my internal wifi setup soon, and hope to boost wifi speeds significantly too (will be linking basement office wifi and upstairs wifi with an ethernet cable, instead of bridging via wifi). So hypothetically, if i sit in my living room, i'll be only 4m away from the wifi box which is linked by ethernet rather than wireless through multiple walls and a floor.


wow those numbers are amazing!.......but why do you need it to be so fast? Ive just done a speed test on my mac here at home and im only getting 9mbs dload and .72upload but rarely find myself waiting for pages to open.....everything is close to "instant".......sometimes im waiting a bit for youtube downloads (music etc) im with orcon and using voip for the phone connection. Does anyone know if voip can benefit from going ufb??

[RedWizzard]

Actually, my desktop computer now gets around 38Mbps download, and 9-10Mbps upload. Very very nice.

My laptop via Wifi still gets slower speeds, but thats probably because of my crappy internal wifi setup. (16Mbps down and 9Mbps up at 2.4ghz, but 20.1MBps down if I switch to 5Ghz for my Wifi).

Ah, yes Wi-Fi is often a limitation. Wireless of all stripes is very dependant on the environment. It's one of the reasons that 4G is not going to work as a substitute for UFB as some people have suggested.

[RedWizzard]

wow those numbers are amazing!.......but why do you need it to be so fast? Ive just done a speed test on my mac here at home and im only getting 9mbs dload and .72upload but rarely find myself waiting for pages to open.....everything is close to "instant".......sometimes im waiting a bit for youtube downloads (music etc) im with orcon and using voip for the phone connection. Does anyone know if voip can benefit from going ufb??

You won't really appreciate the difference when browsing. It's a little faster, but not life changing. But you notice it when downloading large files. And when you upload a large file, it's a game changer.

[Joshuatree]

Excellent , thanks Sparky

[Joshuatree]

Shareprice running up nicely in ,anticccciipppaaattiioon

[Timid]

Anticipation of what?

Is it for the CC report that's coming out on 15/08/2013? Or is there some other news I missed out on?

[Joshuatree]

im guessing the first ,Timid but.....



"antiicciipppaaattiioon" Rocky horror Picture show

[Poet]

From Stuff.co.nz

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/9011627/Old-and-new-broadband-to-cost-the-same

[chad321]

A welcome read to my morning also, http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10909371

Onwards and upwards.

[hilskin]

Nice, well done holders

[Mista_Trix]

Well, I'm pleased that my thoughts on CNU have borne out re the govt intervening to give regulatory certainty.

Should see the shares over $3.00 today.

Well done spark.
I've gotta say I'm feeling pretty lucky with this one, had a lot of money release at the right time and my average buy is sitting at $2.52. Sanity won out at the end of the day :)

[Joshuatree]

Sold TEL and bought into CNU. The value and yield was too hard to ignore. At this price, I can live with the regulatory risk that overhangs the stock, knowing it may well be moderated by the govt.

Thanks for all your posts on CNU Sparky im sure there will be a fair few whove enjoyed the slipstream:t_up:

[stoploss]

Well, I'm pleased that my thoughts on CNU have borne out re the govt intervening to give regulatory certainty.

Should see the shares over $3.00 today.

Good work STC, always satisfying when a plan comes to fruition.

[CJ]

Well, I'm pleased that my thoughts on CNU have borne out re the govt intervening to give regulatory certainty. Thanks Sparky. It didn't take long to confrim your thoughts were correct.

I'm happy with my entry price. Its just a shame I didn't have any extra cash when it dropped even further into the 2.20's and by the time I free'ed some up, it had already bounced.

[Silverlight]

Sold FPH down last week and bought some Chorus, very good price on yield, earnings or DCF in my investment view.

In my amateur technology view (and someone who upgraded to fibre in March), fibre is the way forward simply because of speed. The market place will always have people who code stuff terribly, build websites poorly, make files that are too large, and while geek purists can grandstand that we need to be smarter about programming et al, there will always be developers who are monkeys, therefore, in my lay mans view, you will always need a bigger pipe to cope with more and more data.

From a political economic view, while Craigs view on downgrading Chorus is valid, it is a short term call, and in 2 years time we will be back at 3.5+, with two 25 cent divs in the bank as well, and Craigs will have a buy based on yield.

Got half my position out the door today for a nice 30% gain in less than 6 weeks. The risk is now to the downside, with potential for Chorus to announce an increased amount of capex been slightly offset by more clarity on the regulation around UFB, would sell all above $3.40, would be a buyer below $2.70.

[Timid]

Is there even a point to the Commerce Commisions soon-to-be-released report now?

[chad321]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=10909596

[nextbigthing]

Yes interesting Moosie. They've often said they will reverse/change decisions National have made. Hopefully just when we're starting to get some certainty around pricing they're not about to come out with some policy to buy all nzs UFB capability at a reduced rate and distribute it how they see fit!

[biker]

Ok, what pricing ratio should apply to copper / and Fibre. Most people dont realise that fibre has the potential to revolutionise business software processing moving the browser into the family car and the formula one racing car "Fibre" allow highly interactive powerful multi tasking software to run anywhere. Why would copper and fibre be similar cost when fibre. Fibre brings the revolution that people dont realise will change the world of science and business.
How does fibre move the browser into the family car?

[Jay]

How does fibre move the browser into the family car?

I was wondering the same thing!

Dial up is about to disappear, so will that mean there will be cheaper basic broadband - like the companies that now ofer very cheap dial up will move in the broadband space? Evertything above will reduce slowly as well?

And thanks SPC for alerting me to Chorus again with you well thought out reasoning and research -
Holding at present - only in short term portfolio with a nice profit so far

[brucey09]

How does fibre move the browser into the family car?

Snr.
Yes by very long fibres.

[Mista_Trix]

Bloody 'ell, where have yesterdays gains gone.

[Mista_Trix]

"Oh - I'm not trading. I think it most wise to hold onto shares with a 13.5% plus yield, unless I need the capital for a damn good reason."

wise indeed.

I wouldve thought the up pump before the down dump would have lasted just a little longer to be honest. Yesterdays news got a nice increase, thought it would/could have been ridden for one more day at least.

[CJ]

I wouldve thought the up pump before the down dump would have lasted just a little longer to be honest. Yesterdays news got a nice increase, thought it would/could have been ridden for one more day at least.Craigs gave a Sell recommendation so no doubt their customers a booking gains and moving to DIL which they gave a buy recommendation.

[brevos]

Sparky - given the amount of research you've done on CNU, what are you thoughts on intrinsic valuation following yesterday's announcement?

Can someone please explain to me why there is a range for the wholesale copper price cut of $2.48-$7.48/mth? When and how is it decided exactly what the cut will be?

[macduffy]

Not a word about CNU there, steve!

:confused:

Wrong thread?

:)

[sharer]

I agree with your very sensible summary Sparky. I'm holding & relaxed.

And there is still a useful dividend to look forward to, in stark contrast with the musings about DIL that diverted our surfing friend above.
Maybe he wasn't too far off thread after all.

[nextbigthing]

Sparky or anyone,

Can you please explain the use of the figure 0.72 to get gross dividend for the benefit of me and possibly some others?
I realise dividing by 0.72 inceases it by 1.388 to allow for tax but 0.255 ÷ 0.72 = 0.354

0.354 x 0.33 = 0.117

0.354 - 0.117 = 0.237

Which isn't 0.255 which has me confused. Using 0.39 only makes it worse. Using 0.3 makes it closer.


Also, 'divide by 0.85 or 0.95 to get the price you'd have to pay to get a yield of that amount'.

Can someone please explain this? What is this allowing for? Why can you not spend $1 to get this yield, why does it have to be $1 ÷ 0.95 etc?

Thanks

NBT

[nextbigthing]

Sparky.

Thanks for that.

Next question. Tax has been paid by the company at a rate of 28%. If the personal rate is 33% then how does this work out for an individual? Does the company pay the extra 5%, will the individual end up having to pay it or is it considered 'fully tax paid' by IRD already.

I appreciate this is a tax question but its is very relevant to cnu as a mostly dividend/income stock and some people on the forum may not have a full grasp on the concept.

Cheers

Nextbigthing

[Xerof]

They will attach the imputation for 28%, and deduct RWT for 5%

whoops, take that back, only applies to fixed interest products I think

Over to you CJ?

[brevos]

Well, this is a utility stock, largely coveted for its dividend.

A fair dividend for a utility stock is arguably between 8.5-9.5% gross (at least, thats how I feel. Some utilities have lesser yield).

So if we divide the fully imputed 25.5c dividend by 0.72 to get the gross yield, and then divide by 0.095/0.085 for the price you would have to pay for a yield of that amount, you get a price band of $3.72- $4.16.

However - the 25.5c dividend is likely to drop a little two years out if the UBA pricing is amended down slightly. Perhaps down to 21.5c. So over five years we would have an average dividend of 23.1c. Call it 23c.

So 23c / 0.72, and then divided by 0.085 and/or 0.095 gives you a band of $3.36 - $3.76. A mid point is $3.56.

I appreciate this is largely arbitrary and capricious, but I have outlined my past thoughts extensively on the yield being irrational for CNU in this thread. Obviously, my view is no better than anyone else's but I think it's a fair set of assumptions and expectations.

Thanks Sparky - always appreciate your well thought out views.

[janner]

Sparky or anyone,

Can you please explain the use of the figure 0.72 to get gross dividend for the benefit of me and possibly some others?
I realise dividing by 0.72 inceases it by 1.388 to allow for tax but 0.255 ÷ 0.72 = 0.354

0.354 x 0.33 = 0.117

0.354 - 0.117 = 0.237

Which isn't 0.255 which has me confused. Using 0.39 only makes it worse. Using 0.3 makes it closer.


Also, 'divide by 0.85 or 0.95 to get the price you'd have to pay to get a yield of that amount'.

Can someone please explain this? What is this allowing for? Why can you not spend $1 to get this yield, why does it have to be $1 ÷ 0.95 etc?

Thanks

NBT

Why... Why... Why.. That is the reason for my persistence for TAXATION CHANGE..

Tax Spending.. with no exemptions.. .

[nextbigthing]

Thanks Xerof

The Chorus website states they expect to pay a 0.255 dividend for the year, fully imputed.

Does fully imputed mean they have already paid the 5% and the individual will receive the full 0.255 with no tax liability?

[nextbigthing]

Or an even more important question...

Why is the shareprice only $2.93?

Sparkys good analysis put the LOWER end of the shareprice at $3.36. This was based on very conservative figures... Eg the dividend dropping to reflect the drop in copper price already factored in at the worst case full drop. This also assumes no increase in dividend all for five years which is conservative given the fibre network kicking in.

Therefore arguably the shareprice should be AT LEAST $3.36 in a rational market, if not more. This is also backed by ASB's accumulate rating up to $3.60. They don't have many NZ stocks with accumulate or buy!

Trading at $2.80 odd prior to the announcement made sense - some discount for the political uncertainty. However this has now more or less resolved (remember Sparkys analysis was based on the worst case scenario of the outcome). I would think this certainty around the pricing may mean some big overseas players who have been holding off are now going to be happy to jump on board.

As has been stated on the thread earlier, looks like a very nice opportunity to bag not only a stable 9% dividend but also a nice increase in shareprice along the way.


Disc; have put my money where my mouth is! Concerned I'm starting to sound like Moosie in the DIL thread ;)

[baller18]

ASB's buy is actually researched by morningstar...

[nextbigthing]

ASB's buy is actually researched by morningstar...

Hey Baller

Correct.

The fact they've picked Chorus out and given it an accumulate rating only strengthens the case. The moat rating is nice to have too.

Cheers

NBT

[Omega]

Thanks Xerof

The Chorus website states they expect to pay a 0.255 dividend for the year, fully imputed.

Does fully imputed mean they have already paid the 5% and the individual will receive the full 0.255 with no tax liability?

Fully imputed at the Company Tax Rate of 28%. If your marginal tax rate is 33%, you will have a tax liability of 5% of the gross amount or 6.94% (5%/0.72) of the net dividend. If your marginal tax rate is 17.5% you will receive a tax benefit of 10.5% (28.0% less 17.5%).

[nextbigthing]

Fully imputed at the Company Tax Rate of 28%. If your marginal tax rate is 33%, you will have a tax liability of 5% of the gross amount or 6.94% (5%/0.72) of the net dividend. If your marginal tax rate is 17.5% you will receive a tax benefit of 10.5% (28.0% less 17.5%).

Thanks Omega. Very clear explanation. Cheers

[chad321]

Another day, another related article.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10910165

[CJ]

Fully imputed at the Company Tax Rate of 28%. If your marginal tax rate is 33%, you will have a tax liability of 5% of the gross amount or 6.94% (5%/0.72) of the net dividend. If your marginal tax rate is 17.5% you will receive a tax benefit of 10.5% (28.0% less 17.5%).just to add my 28% [tax humour]

Companies can impute dividends up to 28%, representing the tax they have paid. Hence dividing by 0.72 to gross up for this extra benifit.

A company must withhold tax at 33% (less ICs) so the will withhold 5% withholding tax as well - unless you have a withholding tax certificate.

Note IC represent NZ tax paid so a company with NZ operations is expected to fully impute but a company with large profits overseas (FBu, skc, fph) will struggle so may only partially impute.

Edit: worked example
Fully imputed
7.2 Cent dividend
2.8 Fully imputed
10. Cent gross income

-2.8. IC tax credit
-0.5. RWT tax

6.7. Cent cash in hand from dividend

No imputation

7.2. Cent div with no iC
-2.4. RWT tax
4.8. Cent cash in hand from dividend

[nextbigthing]

Cousin greed has always been my favourite, however hopefully irrational uncle Mr Market doesn't lock greed out of the house for bringing too much positive news.

[nextbigthing]

no no no - terrible news.

Morningstar are the analysts alleged to have failed to understand Ryman Healthcare and in doing so, told ASB Clients to sell up from a company he valued at $3.50-$4.50 (it is now around $7).

At least we know they aren't an outlier on valuations for CNU.

No analyst wins them all Sparky. Just look at the recent bagging of Milford and Carmel on some threads here and you'll think Morningstar are the golden boys

[nextbigthing]

Its getting a bit off topic. But one last thing, when will we see 'Sparkys magic managed fund' then? I assume it will have a good portion of CNU ;)

[Major von Tempsky]

Maybe everyone except those holding it (CNU) for the gross dividend percentage should be banned from owning CNU (down 5cps this morning).
That way there would be some desirable stability and the game players could concentrate on more logical targets like FBU....

[chad321]

Maybe everyone except those holding it (CNU) for the gross dividend percentage should be banned from owning CNU (down 5cps this morning).
That way there would be some desirable stability and the game players could concentrate on more logical targets like FBU....

I personally thought it would hold around or above the $3 mark after the government news. No such luck. What key dates do we have coming up to further cement more positive sentiment?

[chad321]

"Chorus will release its full year results, for the twelve months ended 30 June 2013, prior to market opening on Monday 26 August 2013. A briefing will be held at 10am (NZ time) and webcast live via www.chorus.co.nz/webcast."

Does anyone have any thoughts as to what we could be in for? Any particular number ranges that would be deemed as negative/positive?

[stoploss]

Looks good to me STC , I think the analyst range was 141/165 mio so above all of those @ 171 mio.Feels to me like some of the negativity is going out of this stock, solid dividends will underpin this as well imo.

[Major von Tempsky]

It's a better report than TEL, higher dividend and fully imputed. A just reward for all the bureaucratic socialist sniping from the idiot Commerce Commission.

[nextbigthing]

Looks good to me STC , I think the analyst range was 141/165 mio so above all of those @ 171 mio.Feels to me like some of the negativity is going out of this stock, solid dividends will underpin this as well imo.

Maybe we will finally see it climb into the threes and stay there.

[blakecb]

Yeah I must say I am surprised the report didn't push them through the $3 resistance level in quick order this morning. It's a very nice divvy.

[nextbigthing]

Yeah I must say I am surprised the report didn't push them through the $3 resistance level in quick order this morning. It's a very nice divvy.

The same happened when the report was released recently... Provided clarity and good news yet no sustained increase in price.

What do you suppose might be holding it back now (obviously the bigger fund managers overseas need to have breakfast first :) )

[blakecb]

The same happened when the report was released recently... Provided clarity and good news yet no sustained increase in price.

What do you suppose might be holding it back now (obviously the bigger fund managers overseas need to have breakfast first :) )

Could even be something as simple as all the folks that previously bought in at $3 or above are seeing that as an approximate number to sell at and get their money out without too much of a loss. That selling pressure, in turn, is enough to keep the ceiling in place. $3 is a major resistance/support line.

[JMKC]

stock went down because capex forecasts for FY14 were higher than analysts were expecting. On top of that each fibre install is costing ca $1600 vs forecast average of $900-$1100.

[nextbigthing]

Ah I see the reason for the slight dip now. Morningstar have reaffirmed their accumulate rating and $3.60 valuation.

[Major von Tempsky]

I'll take the dividend :-)
Look at the gross dividend yield ratio.

It appears that analysts haven't read the CEO's statement that some streets only take $1,000 to cable lay and that they have done the difficult central city streets first and will do easier stuff from now on.
But they ("analysts") don't believe that. In other words they believe the CEO is deliberately telling lies.
He would have to have a very short term horizon to do that, he would be out on his ear about a year later. I don't believe he would do that. Its not a Ponzi game.

[Mista_Trix]

A bit of light reading for the public;
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11118623
:-S

[Mista_Trix]

Well, sounds like good news for Chorus shareholders.

Totally agree, I think regardless of the boat rocking by any other groups, the short-term pain of higher copper prices is a really good strategy to move more people faster onto fiber for the long term gain.
I think they're playing the smarter game, and likely labour wont get in next election so they'll have a few years to ride it out.

A happy holder here.

[Major von Tempsky]

After reading Barton's (article referenced by Mista Trix above) I have to say (as an economist) that it's full of sloppy, misleading and incorrect economics put out by self serving pressure groups like TUANZ.

He says no one can get onto or use glass fibre now. Wrong.
He cries oceans of crocodile tears for rural users supposedly subsidizing urban users. The numbers actually involved are so very thin, its not a meaningful argument.

He obfuscates and disputes the need for Chorus to get a meaningful return on its investment and to be able to pay its loans back.

Pathetic. He's stool pigeon in the pocket of TUANZ.

[Mista_Trix]

Uh oh http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11119558

[Jay]

I think there may be some selling in Chorus by those not really in the know, especially when you get reporting like the above could create an good entry point.
"Chorus are doing the braodband rollout and the workers are on strike - sell sell sell"

[JAYAY]

See also sub standard, one sided reporting by Chris Barton in the Herald.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11118623
As Jay says, reporting like this could create buying opportunities.

[CJ]

That's right - a several year project is in trouble because of down tools by a contractor that will be resolved in a matter of days!

Never sell on daily news.just to clarify, it's not contractors who have downed tools, it is sub contractors. They will get paid - transfeild just reported a good profit apparently - be worried only if their share price goes down - and even then, it will only temporary glitch while they sign up a new contractor.

[Jay]

Agree, just the general public will only hear Broadband workers on strike can't be good for Chorus rolling out broadband, put 2 + 2 together and get 3

[CJ]

just to clarify, it's not contractors who have downed tools, it is sub contractors. They will get paid - Transfeild just reported a good profit apparently - be worried only if their share price goes down - and even then, it will only temporary glitch while they sign up a new contractor.To correct my post, Transfeild just announced a huge loss ($250m) but since then its shareprice has increased 50% (go figure) so there must be something positive happening.

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/ufb-contractors-down-tools-report-ck-145425

[Xerof]

To correct my post, Transfeild just announced a huge loss ($250m) but since then its shareprice has increased 50% (go figure) so there must be something positive happening.

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/ufb-contractors-down-tools-report-ck-145425

They are clearly following the XRO model
:D

[nextbigthing]

Sell order in at $2.90 by the looks. From memory I think the partial dividend is this month. Time to add some more CNU to the portfolio

[Mista_Trix]

Sell order in at $2.90 by the looks. From memory I think the partial dividend is this month. Time to add some more CNU to the portfolio

Dang, wish I had more money - good timing.

[CJ]

Sell order in at $2.90 by the looks. From memory I think the partial dividend is this month. Time to add some more CNU to the portfolio
Goes ex on the 25th, paid 11 Oct from my records. Theres a DRP with a small discount from memory.

[nextbigthing]

Dividend reinvestment plan

http://www.chorus.co.nz/dividend-information

From the PDF it says the rate at which the dividend will be invested is a five day volume weighed average price prior to the ex date minus a 3% discount.

Is this really a good deal though? At first it would seem so, however when you look at it,

15.5 cents ÷ 296 (current shareprice) makes for a 5% return. Hence I can foresee dividend strippers possibly bidding the price up at least 3% in the days leading up to the date, if not more. If it was more, you'd actually end up paying a premium for these shares.
The clincher of course being the zero brokerage fees. Hence if you're wanting cheap shares then this isn't the deal it might seem, but if you want to build your holding then it's great (due to the lack of brokerage).

NBT

[Crisis]

Dividend reinvestment plan

http://www.chorus.co.nz/dividend-information

From the PDF it says the rate at which the dividend will be invested is a five day volume weighed average price prior to the ex date minus a 3% discount.

Is this really a good deal though? At first it would seem so, however when you look at it,

15.5 cents ÷ 296 (current shareprice) makes for a 5% return. Hence I can foresee dividend strippers possibly bidding the price up at least 3% in the days leading up to the date, if not more. If it was more, you'd actually end up paying a premium for these shares.
The clincher of course being the zero brokerage fees. Hence if you're wanting cheap shares then this isn't the deal it might seem, but if you want to build your holding then it's great (due to the lack of brokerage).

NBT

Your post is not correct. Following is an extract from DRP document:
P (price) is the volume weighted average sale price (expressed in cents and decimals of cents), for a Share, calculated on all price setting trades of Shares which took place through the NZX Main Board over a period of five Business Days commencing on the Ex Date (less a discount (if any) at the discretion of the Board, as contemplated by paragraph 12(a)(i) of these Terms and Conditions).

[nextbigthing]

Aha! Thank you. I was wondering if there was something I was overlooking. So then given the fact the price is based on five days AFTER the ex date when the price should fall then this is actually a great deal!

Another good reason to own CNU I guess.

Disc; happily holding CNU and soon some more ;)

[Food4Thought]

... look's like a solid deal for sure. Onwards and upwards CNU...

[chad321]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/9155840/Chorus-big-winner-in-internet-reform-coalition

[JAYAY]

Good God, "The Coalition for Fair Internet Pricing".
When I read the Stuff article it seems like there is some pretty hairy logic involved.

"The $600m figure used by the coalition is derived from the difference between the commission's proposals and those of Adams."

To tag this as a $600 M tax is an interesting way to characterise it to say the least.

[sharer]

Here's what i just read on Stuff:

"Chorus big winner in internet reform: Coalition (https://www.communications.stuff.co.nz/rd/f1f91691a0b84ba29df30f2a812065ae/3AHGML6B.srdx?cid=edm:businessday:dailybrief)
Hamish Rutherford
Kiwi broadband users face being taxed at least $600 million by the Government, with all proceeds going to privately owned Chorus, a broad coalition says."

[JAYAY]

Look at the make up of this "Coalition". It is being led publicly by Consumer New Zealand chief executive Sue Chetwin, InternetNZ chief executive Jordan Carter and Paul Brislen, chief executive of the Telecommunications Users Association of New Zealand (Tuanz).
Other members include the Federation of Maori Authorities, Grey Power, the the New Zealand Union of Students' Associations, Rural Women and the Unite union.

It is all just so political.

[iceman]

Look at the make up of this "Coalition". It is being led publicly by Consumer New Zealand chief executive Sue Chetwin, InternetNZ chief executive Jordan Carter and Paul Brislen, chief executive of the Telecommunications Users Association of New Zealand (Tuanz).
Other members include the Federation of Maori Authorities, Grey Power, the the New Zealand Union of Students' Associations, Rural Women and the Unite union.

It is all just so political.

You also have pollster David Farrar and political commentator Matthew Hooton, both heavily aligned to the National Party. This group could cause problems and are already calling for Amy Adams to go. CNU is too uncertain for me.

[JAYAY]

What on earth is Farrar and Hooton's angle. It seems to me that the flaw in Coalitions argument is in regarding the system as two systems. The "old" and the "New" when in fact it is just one system being upgraded. Like it or not the consumer pays one way or another. Whether it is by Chorus' charges or Gov't (taxpayer) subsidy.

[gloworm]

Unfortunately the latter is not as tangible to the consumer

[Major von Tempsky]

Betcha Sue Chetwin is a card carrying member of the Labour Party like the scatty Rod Oram, the 'Orrible Oram.

[JAYAY]

I can't help sniggering whenever I see Sue's funny face and all that hair on TV. As for Rod Oram - does any paper actually publish his drivel any more.

[Major von Tempsky]

Actually the smart, socialist robber baron approach perfected by Hugo Chavez of Venezuela and Cristina Fernandez of Argentina would be to let Chorus pay for and finish the UFB glass fibre and then seize it without compensation. By seizing it now or just after a Labour victory next year they are going off half cock and run the risk of not only totally discouraging private investment but also of being left with a half completed UFB that no-one else would touch so that NZ's copper network has to compete against all the other countries with glass fibre. No contest. NZ loses heavily. TUANZ is left with a copper network for the next 20 or 30 years.

[winner69]

I know very little about CNUT but heck this headline in NBR is pretty dramatic

. PM says chance Chorus could go broke; shareholders shrug

http://www.nbr.co.nz/opinion/pm-says-chance-chorus-could-go-broke-shareholders-shrug-ck

[nextbigthing]

I know very little about CNUT but heck this headline in NBR is pretty dramatic

. PM says chance Chorus could go broke; shareholders shrug

http://www.nbr.co.nz/opinion/pm-says-chance-chorus-could-go-broke-shareholders-shrug-ck

IMHO this is good news. Regulatory uncertainty is the biggest issue for CNU, however this again signals the governments support for CNU by saying, 'we're not going to let anything this group says happen!'

NBT

[Aaron]

It is making me nervous, CNU is one of my biggest investments. It is becoming very political, hopefully the Americas cup will get this group out of the news. CNU hasn't said it will go broke if the commerce commission ruling goes through, it has said that rolling out the UFB network might be a waste of time if copper is way cheaper as no one will switch to fibre. Thinking about reducing my holdings, where is the calming influence of a clown when you need one. I guess if nothing else John Key is likely to stick to his guns and support CNU, as a failure of the UFB network is a failure of national party policy.

[Major von Tempsky]

The cheek and Goebbels type propaganda of the TUANZ mob knows no bounds. Its just that they have transferred most of their evisceral irrational hatred from Telecom to Chorus.
I'll buy them off you if they go down to $2.28 again Aaron :-)

[nextbigthing]

No government, left or right, is going to let the UFB network go under-utilized.

[Mista_Trix]

It is making me nervous, CNU is one of my biggest investments. It is becoming very political, hopefully the Americas cup will get this group out of the news. CNU hasn't said it will go broke if the commerce commission ruling goes through, it has said that rolling out the UFB network might be a waste of time if copper is way cheaper as no one will switch to fibre. Thinking about reducing my holdings, where is the calming influence of a clown when you need one. I guess if nothing else John Key is likely to stick to his guns and support CNU, as a failure of the UFB network is a failure of national party policy.

It wouldn't just be a failure of the National government, but of the first most publicised Public Private Partnership (PPP). Which I don't think they would let fall over, otherwise they will have a really hard time finding future partners.

[chad321]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11125373

[warthog]

It is making me nervous, CNU is one of my biggest investments. It is becoming very political, hopefully the Americas cup will get this group out of the news. CNU hasn't said it will go broke if the commerce commission ruling goes through, it has said that rolling out the UFB network might be a waste of time if copper is way cheaper as no one will switch to fibre. Thinking about reducing my holdings, where is the calming influence of a clown when you need one. I guess if nothing else John Key is likely to stick to his guns and support CNU, as a failure of the UFB network is a failure of national party policy.

CNU, and it's previous incarnation as part of TEL, has always been (and always likely to be) political. How anyone can see otherwise is beyond the hog.

It is the nature of big telcos in a pseudo-free market, where lobbying, influence and politics all impact fundamentally on outcomes.

CNU appears to have under-bid on the UFB contract. Whether they did so on purpose, speculating that they could rely on market intervention from Key, Joyce and co, to achieve desired outcomes, or just didn't do their homework (or some combination of the two) is up for discussion. All three possibilities are perfectly reasonable given the parties involved.

Does anyone here recall TEL, under Gattung, when facing regulation, writing to the government of the day, sharply reminding our politicians that a good part of their retirement has its prosperity connected with the fortunes of TEL.

[Aaron]

Thanks Chad I'll take that article to mean the argument against cheap copper is reasonably compelling even to the likes of Vodaphone and the School Board of Trustees.
Yes Hog CNU will always be affected by politics, its just that it is usually not front page news with a coalition of groups ganging up to exert some pressure on the govt regarding the regulated price to access the copper network. Although that said its good to see people taking an interest in what is happening in NZ in general even if I don't agree and the main reason I don't agree is my shareholding in CNU.

[Major von Tempsky]

This backgrounder is later and fuller.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11125498
As it says further down when the other side of the picture is explained "the coalition"tends to fall apart.

[biker]

Too much uncertainty and exposure to political interference and risk/reward doesn't stack up for me. I've taken my profit and I'm out. Good luck to holders.

[Mista_Trix]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/9174606/PM-reveals-source-of-Chorus-fears

[nextbigthing]

This is brilliant timing not long before the partial dividend. Same old story, people looking at the story in the news, panicking and selling thinking Chorus is about to go broke because John Key had to say something to counter a 'self interest groups' claims. When in reality Chorus is going to be supported by either government no matter what they claim because ultimately everybody knows the way forward for NZ is to utilize the UFB network. The government has made it quite clear they intend on protecting Chorus.

The fundamentals look good, the charts look good, analysts have it at around $3 to $4, the government has pledged support re the regulatory issues. And now the share is trading at a slight discount due to panic just before the dividend. That's why I say brilliant!

Nextbigthing.

Disc; happily added even more today at these prices to the overall very healthy looking portfolio!

[nextbigthing]

BTW, Chorus is only in the news as Labour need something to try and gain some ground on hence they're trying to make an issue of it to support Cunliffe. Good luck to them - John Key is sharp as a tack. Read this - it's well worth a laugh

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/9175991/Cunliffe-has-caucus-on-the-mind

[janner]

This is brilliant timing not long before the partial dividend. Same old story, people looking at the story in the news, panicking and selling thinking Chorus is about to go broke because John Key had to say something to counter a 'self interest groups' claims. When in reality Chorus is going to be supported by either government no matter what they claim because ultimately everybody knows the way forward for NZ is to utilize the UFB network. The government has made it quite clear they intend on protecting Chorus.

The fundamentals look good, the charts look good, analysts have it at around $3 to $4, the government has pledged support re the regulatory issues. And now the share is trading at a slight discount due to panic just before the dividend. That's why I say brilliant!

Nextbigthing.

Disc; happily added even more today at these prices to the overall very healthy looking portfolio!

Agree..

Disc.. Not holding.

[biker]

This is brilliant timing not long before the partial dividend. Same old story, people looking at the story in the news, panicking and selling thinking Chorus is about to go broke because John Key had to say something to counter a 'self interest groups' claims. When in reality Chorus is going to be supported by either government no matter what they claim because ultimately everybody knows the way forward for NZ is to utilize the UFB network. The government has made it quite clear they intend on protecting Chorus.
The fundamentals look good, the charts look good, analysts have it at around $3 to $4, the government has pledged support re the regulatory issues. And now the share is trading at a slight discount due to panic just before the dividend. That's why I say brilliant!

Nextbigthing.

Disc; happily added even more today at these prices to the overall very healthy looking portfolio!

You may well be right. CNU may go well but I'm certainly not panicking, but nor am I being blinded by the pending dividend.
I am just wary of companies that are as you say, dependent directly on Government support and subject to the winds of political change.
I would now sooner take the profit and keep my money elsewhere.

I do however plan to connect to UFB just as soon as it rolls out past my door. Just a shame it will take so long.

[edm]

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/business/221901/sell-chorus-shares,-says-analyst

[blakecb]

I have been itching to buy some CNU shares for a long-term investment, but haven't quite pulled the trigger... all this media attention has helped keep the price low and may continue to do so... and if panic or depression sets in, I'll be happy to come to the aid of sellers.

[Mista_Trix]

A HUGE trade first thing this morning

[Mista_Trix]

A well balanced piece from Chalkie
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/9177262/Silent-Chorus-fence-sitting-on-copper-pricing-options

I think the risk is mitigated on this investment the longer your time horizon, eventually we'll all be on Fiber, so really, how long is your time horizon should indicate if this is a good investment. This is a slow staple and a bit of a backbone in my portfolio, I know its got some risks associated, but I don't see them turning into anything. National have shown commitment, likely they'll get in again, and all these problems will fade away with time.

[CJ]

With Cunliffe attacking it in the house yesterday, the political risk, much like with the power companies is there.

Disc: HOld

[macduffy]

It does raise questions as to why a unique piece of the country's infrastructure, a natural monopoly, isn't state owned as the transmission company, Transpower is. It seems to make as much sense having it privately owned as it would if State Highway One was privatised and became a toll road - Heaven forbid!

The splitting of Telecom into the two companies would have been the opportunity to take back the monopoly copper wires and the future fibre network - with appropriate compensation to the owners of course. As it is, CNU will continue to be a political football and a source of frustration to investors and users alike.

Disc: Small holding in CNU.

[CJ]

It does raise questions as to why a unique piece of the country's infrastructure, a natural monopoly, isn't state owned as the transmission company, Transpower is. good point. Would have been slightly different if the Fiber rollout wasn't so dominate by Chorus as then there would be more bench marking available for regulators (like local lines companies).

Market Cap is $1b so the government could have taken that out easily.

Surprised Labour haven't proposed it as then they could hike up the fees like they did with power prices during their last reign. ;)

[Major von Tempsky]

Labour, like Cristina Fernandez in Argentina and Hugo Chavez and his successor in Venezuela, are congenitally unable to pay fair compensation, or indeed any compensation to shareholders.
Voters have a choice as to whether they remain part of the OECD, advanced Western economies including Japan, South Korea etc, or become part of the 3rd World under Labour.

[CJ]

Labour, like Cristina Fernandez in Argentina and Hugo Chavez and his successor in Venezuela, are congenitally unable to pay fair compensation, or indeed any compensation to shareholders.I would be very happy to sell my shares to a Labour government based on the same spreadsheet they used when buying the national railway network from Toll. That would work out at about 10x current market price plus free line rental for 5 years.

[Xerof]

Significant BOT distribution happening today. A bit of patience required for those looking to buy in. What date is it XD please anyone?

[karen1]

What date is it XD please anyone?

23 September, paid 11 October

[Xerof]

Thanks Karen, see.... I can'tre member much these days......

[karen1]

see... I can'tre member much these days......

That may be, and I cant forget!!!
Gives me many a smile.

[TimmyTP]

23 September, paid 11 October
Hmm NZX says 25th September:
Upcoming Dividends

Ex Dividend
Period
Amount
Supp.
Imputation
Payable
Currency


25 Sep 2013
Final
15.500c
2.735c
6.028c
11 Oct 2013
NZD

[CJ]

Hmm NZX says 25th September:
Upcoming Dividends

Ex Dividend
Period
Amount
Supp.
Imputation
Payable
Currency


25 Sep 2013
Final
15.500c
2.735c
6.028c
11 Oct 2013
NZD

ASB says 25th, though also say 0% Franking so not 100% trustworthy. (actually pretty crap from ASB to be using Australian info (franking) for NZ shareholders)

Does the NZX have a easy to read table of upcoming dividends - if not why not and if so, why is it so hard to find! What we need is someone on this site to create a dividend website with this information on it ;)

[Snow Leopard]

Does the NZX have a easy to read table of upcoming dividends
It does: https://nzx.com/markets/NZSX & https://nzx.com/markets/NZAX


- if not why not and if so, why is it so hard to find!
It may not be a NZX failing here.


What we need is someone on this site to create a dividend website with this information on it ;)
Our favourite site for NZ dividends (http://www.dividendyield.co.nz/) does not appear to have upcoming dividends, though perhaps it does and it is so hard to find!

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Crisis]

Craigs Investment Partners, Arie Dekker, says --"We're recommending that investors wait for greater certainty on those key drivers,"
How did Radio NZ make the outrageous title - "Sell Chorus shares, says analyst"? When did Radio NZ become investment analyst? Analysts interpreted the uncertainty situations only but did not advise to sell.

[Crisis]

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/business/221901/sell-chorus-shares,-says-analyst

Craigs Investment Partners, Arie Dekker, says --"We're recommending that investors wait for greater certainty on those key drivers,"
How did Radio NZ make the outrageous title - "Sell Chorus shares, says analyst"? When did Radio NZ become investment analyst? Analysts interpreted the uncertainty situations only but did not advise to sell.

[karen1]

oops, my bad. Quite right, ex date is 25th, put it down to a typo??

ASB has this for upcoming divs, https://www.asbsecurities.co.nz/quotes/upcomingevents.aspx

using CTRL/F, type code in box which appears

[CJ]

It does: https://nzx.com/markets/NZSX & https://nzx.com/markets/NZAX


It may not be a NZX failing here.Do you see CNU on that list? Only the next 7 days (though I only see todays), not all declared dividends. No doubt Waldon decided he could charge for that.


Our favourite site for NZ dividends (http://www.dividendyield.co.nz/) does not appear to have upcoming dividends, though perhaps it does and it is so hard to find!It was a suggestion.

[CJ]

oops, my bad. Quite right, ex date is 25th, put it down to a typo??

ASB has this for upcoming divs, https://www.asbsecurities.co.nz/quotes/upcomingevents.aspxYou were probably looking at the Australian date, not the NZ. ASB using their Australian Parents info without rehanging it for NZ investors. It should have imputation credit info, not franking!

[Xerof]

oops, my bad. Quite right, ex date is 25th, put it down to a typo??

ASB has this for upcoming divs, https://www.asbsecurities.co.nz/quotes/upcomingevents.aspx

using CTRL/F, type code in box which appears

Oh nice, it is right in front of me......there are two ex dates, one is for ASX, being 23rd, and the other for NZ, being 25th

and they publish 30 days ahead, without charging for it....
thanks Karen

[karen1]

You were probably looking at the Australian date, not the NZ. ASB using their Australian Parents info without rehanging it for NZ investors. It should have imputation credit info, not franking!

Thanks CJ, yes, was the Aus date, should have remembered, have been caught before. Would be better if ASB listed alphabetically instead of chronologically....


And Xerof, you're welcome!

[Aaron]

Would be better if ASB listed alphabetically instead of chronologically....
And Xerof, you're welcome!

In ASB Securities if you go to upcoming dividends and click on "Code" at the top it will rearrange it alphabetically. Then you have CNU and CNU-NZ together. Much easier finding a company.

[karen1]

In ASB Securities if you go to upcoming dividends and click on "Code" at the top it will rearrange it alphabetically. Then you have CNU and CNU-NZ together. Much easier finding a company.


Brilliant! Cheers Aaron

[nextbigthing]

$2.83 while people panic as it's bashed in the news... Nice chance for some trading?.... $2.98 again after things quieten down again and people remember the juicy dividend?....

Disc; happily holding

[BIRMANBOY]

YAda yada yada....its free ..what do you want.:laugh: I'll get to it eventually....if I was getting paid for it..hint..hint.... it would already be done. I dont want to make it too easy since you'll all become lazy bas****s
ASB says 25th, though also say 0% Franking so not 100% trustworthy. (actually pretty crap from ASB to be using Australian info (franking) for NZ shareholders)

Does the NZX have a easy to read table of upcoming dividends - if not why not and if so, why is it so hard to find! What we need is someone on this site to create a dividend website with this information on it ;)

[Xerof]

Spinning top today with late recovery in the auction

i tried at 280, but too far down the queue

perhaps a better indication of direction tomorrow

[CJ]

Is NBR guilty of manipulation. Haven't read todays story as its behind the paywall but they slame the stock yesterday, then pump the stock today (based on headline). I wonder if the reports bought before yesterdays close as he was writing todays story.

Said in jest of course ;)

[Mista_Trix]

Is NBR guilty of manipulation. Haven't read todays story as its behind the paywall but they slame the stock yesterday, then pump the stock today (based on headline). I wonder if the reports bought before yesterdays close as he was writing todays story.

Said in jest of course ;)

The titles with the most intriguing/leading headlines are always behind the paywall!!

[Xerof]

Spinning top today with late recovery in the auction

i tried at 280, but too far down the queue

perhaps a better indication of direction tomorrow

well, not perfect pitch but joined the chorus today in the opening auction. Yesterdays late recovery and the no-taper rally convinced me to get in. Bit of a tail off the highs near the close, but yesterdays buyers probably took the quick profits available.

P.S. todays NBR story was reporting of buy recommendations from Forbar and UBS

[nextbigthing]

well, not perfect pitch but joined the chorus today in the opening auction. Yesterdays late recovery and the no-taper rally convinced me to get in. Bit of a tail off the highs near the close, but yesterdays buyers probably took the quick profits available.

P.S. todays NBR story was reporting of buy recommendations from Forbar and UBS

Just in time for the dividend, nice.

Yesterdays buyers have been reported to the Police as at that price the were stealing.

NBT

[Mista_Trix]

Ahhh gotta love the games;
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/9189096/Vodafone-accuses-Govt-of-stealth-copper-taxing

[blakecb]

Talking of hopes and dreams...I would love to see us win the America's Cup on the weekend and that positive sentiment to flow through to the markets on Monday with everyone realising the world is good and hey there is a huge divvy on offer with CNU.... the mad rush pushes it up to about $3.15 on Wednesday, and for it to then drop back to nice support of $3 per share ex-divvy. Asking too much??

[Xerof]

Yes, lol, but I won't complain if your plan comes to fruition

[CJ]

The idea that there are no apps to support broad band are a little silly..What is your current set up at home. How much data do you use a month and what drives that usage.

I accept business are different but if they are in the CBD, they can already get fibre so the roll out isn't for business.

[NZSilver]

Can someone please explain this too me if I have 1share and the upcoming div = Final 15.500c supplementary 2.735c imputation 6.028c

How do I work out what will end up in my account? Do you have to do something at the end of the year with the imp. credits?

Thanks for you help in advance!

[garfy]

Hi NZSilver,
Not having any 'early learning' in economics or accounting, I decided at this late stage to enlist the help of ShareSight. I do all my 'broking' through Direct Broking, and they convey any transactions I have done to said ShareSight. On March 31, I press a button, and from my printer there issues an annual statement, dividends, supplementary, imputations..... all things I know little to nothing about, BUT, which my accountant can deal with in a form acceptable!!!
Spares me from confusion and anxiety, saves my accountant time, and me money. The latter is important because I am not handling huge amounts of $, so any simplification is valuable.
This may be simplistic, but ... Hope it helps. G.

[Under Surveillance]

Can someone please explain this too me if I have 1share and the upcoming div = Final 15.500c supplementary 2.735c imputation 6.028c

How do I work out what will end up in my account? Do you have to do something at the end of the year with the imp. credits?

Thanks for you help in advance!
Assuming you are a NZ resident/taxpayer, your account will receive payment after tax of (15.5c + 6.028c) x 0.67% = 14.42376c per share.
You will include the imp. credits in your 2013/14 tax return, and they will be subtracted from the tax otherwise payable on your taxable income.

[NZSilver]

Cheers guys great help, one quick question - so when I add imputation credits to my end of year tax return they will give me that money back?

[CJ]

Cheers guys great help, one quick question - so when I add imputation credits to my end of year tax return they will give me that money back?
A fully imputed net dividend of $72 with have $5 RWT withheld so you get $67 in the bank with 28 imputation credits.

You will put $100 income in you tax return, which at the top rate, will have $33 of tax. You claim credit for the 28IC's and $5RWT so nothing to pay.

If you are on a lower tax rate, the RWT will be refunded and more likely than not, the ICs as well (provided you have paid other tax such as PAYE)

[janner]

A fully imputed net dividend of $72 with have $5 RWT withheld so you get $67 in the bank with 28 imputation credits.

You will put $100 income in you tax return, which at the top rate, will have $33 of tax. You claim credit for the 28IC's and $5RWT so nothing to pay.

If you are on a lower tax rate, the RWT will be refunded and more likely than not, the ICs as well (provided you have paid other tax such as PAYE)

Ad Nauseum !!.. Again.. EXPENDITURE TAX .. Is just around the corner..

You spend .. you pay.. You earn.. you pay nothing..

[Under Surveillance]

You spend .. you pay.. You earn.. you pay nothing..
Sounds like a quote from that economics pigmy Russell Norman?
As a modest earner, in the 17.5 cent marginal tax band, I will have 33 cents in the dollar deducted from my CNU dividend and will receive back 16 cents of that from IRD in 9 months time. So I earn, grossly overpay, receive the overpayment back without interest in 9 months, then pay tax immediately I spend it. "Socialists" like David Cosgrove who live in $2+ million mansions probably intend to sock me with more than 33 cents up front if they get the chance.

[janner]

You have exactly made my point clear for those that can comprehend..

All of that pushing and taking .. All of those un-needed pencil pushers..

You spend.. You pay..

You earn.. No payment..

[janner]

I certainly do not disagree with your statement that Wussel Norman is an economic Pygmy..

But fair is fair .. He is an Aussie Ginga..

[CJ]

Sounds like a quote from that economics pigmy Russell Norman?
As a modest earner, in the 17.5 cent marginal tax band, I will have 33 cents in the dollar deducted from my CNU dividend and will receive back 16 cents of that from IRD in 9 months time. Apply for a certificate of exemption so the RWT wont be withheld.

[chad321]

So it looks like Telecom support the government stepping in on this.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/9197401/Telecom-backs-Govt-over-broadband

[JAYAY]

Yes, good to see some sanity coming from an interested party. I think the "Coalition" members must have known there was a good chance their argument could fall flat so they set Silly Sue up to be the face of it.

[baller18]

Weird, how CNU on the ASX dropped by 5.6% yesterday, SP at $2.46 which would roughly equal to $2.7 nzd..

[zymwh]

Its their ex div date mate....

[baller18]

Its their ex div date mate....

Uh duh me! thanks mate!

[CJ]

Its their ex div date mate....Yip - NZ ex date is tomorrow.

[chad321]

Just for some clarification (have never received dividends). All holders prior to the Ex date receive dividends, even if they sell immediately after the ex date? Is it a popular strategy to sell after ex date and buy back at a cheaper price? Or is there not always a dip in share price afterwards?

[CJ]

All holders prior to the Ex date receive dividends, Yes
even if they sell immediately after the ex date? Yes
Is it a popular strategy to sell after ex date and buy back at a cheaper price? Plenty os strategies. Some buy for the dividen, some sell before and buy after. The day the dividend goes ex, the price (in theory) should ahve dropped by the amount of the dividend. Therefore your plan wont work.
Or is there not always a dip in share price afterwards? Always a dip - whether it directly reflects the dividend is the question.

[Timid]

Interesting, the UFB rollout went past my house in Tauranga a couple of weeks ago (done by Ultra Fast Fibre). Then, today we got some mail from Trustpower detailing the new plans.

It actually turns out slightly cheaper if we switch to UFB. It'll be $3 less a month than before, and the data cap will double from 10G to 20G, with the plan I'm thinking of switching to.

Here's a direct quote from Trustpower

"UFB is cheaper than our regular speed broadband (ADSL). Why? Because we no longer have to pay a network charge for separate phone and internet lines. Both services are supplied over one line - so it's cheaper for us and for you"

Is that usual? Is there any downside to this that I'm not seeing?

[Mista_Trix]

So ex div date was today? It's recovered pretty well all things considered over the last few weeks.

[Major von Tempsky]

From now until the election in November next year every poll that does not show National forming the next government is going to lead to a panic run from MRP, Contact, Meridian and CNU. Brace yourselves - you have been warned.
Only note of consolation is that Clare Curran has been chucked out of the shadow Cabinet :-)

[BIRMANBOY]

Nothing wrong with a good healthy dose of panic...opens up buying opportunities...go ahead make my day.....:t_up:
From now until the election in November next year every poll that does not show National forming the next government is going to lead to a panic run from MRP, Contact, Meridian and CNU. Brace yourselves - you have been warned.
Only note of consolation is that Clare Curran has been chucked out of the shadow Cabinet :-)

[nextbigthing]

Nothing wrong with a good healthy dose of panic...opens up buying opportunities...go ahead make my day.....:t_up:

Absolutely right Birmanboy. Couldn't agree more.

[Food4Thought]

Absolutely right Birmanboy. Couldn't agree more.

Is it a good time to enter CNU? I see more exit signs. If they drop back to June prices... that would be a good entry point... Wish I would have had some cash free back in June 2013. What a roller coaster...

[nextbigthing]

Is it a good time to enter CNU? I see more exit signs. If they drop back to June prices... that would be a good entry point... Wish I would have had some cash free back in June 2013. What a roller coaster...

What exit signs do you see food4thought and why?

Cheers NBT

[BIRMANBOY]

Speaking for myself i will be looking to add more between 2.30 to 2.60. AT current SP 2.73 its a 9.34 % div yield not counting imputation credits. AS you say a roller coaster but thats good for traders or div devotees. The lower you buy the better the yield but I feel sure there will be lots of interest in getting back in at these lower prices. Money to be made here any way you look at it. Probably a lot of folks have taken the div, sold off and will look to get back in. Carefull watching will be necessary..could turn quickly.
Is it a good time to enter CNU? I see more exit signs. If they drop back to June prices... that would be a good entry point... Wish I would have had some cash free back in June 2013. What a roller coaster...

[biker]

It would seem to me there has been effectively a negative yield on the latest dividend.
You could have bought the shares cum dividend, received the dividend, paid tax on it and watched the share price retreat to less than the ex dividend price.

Or you could have sold cum dividend and bought back in at less than the theoretical ex div price.

Or, if not a holder, waited until ex dividend and bought in then.

Sometimes actual, real, dividend yield on listed stocks is a bit of a myth.

[Major von Tempsky]

Or you could have a longer term view than what's for breakfast tomorrow....

[macduffy]

You are mixing dividend income with capital gain - or loss - there, biker but your point is valid. "Dividend yield" is only ever a theoretical number based on current shareprice and last annual dividend.

[biker]

Yes, it depends on your investing philosophy.
I was just commenting on nett, nett returns. Surely maximising returns is the reason we spend the time investing in the share market and not somewhere else, be that short term, long term, dividend yield, capital gain or whatever.

My point is that with the political uncertainty and share price volatility, CNU's dividend yield is not necessarily all it is cracked up to be.

[CJ]

CNU's dividend yield is not necessarily all it is cracked up to be.If you think it will be resolved in CNUs favour, and are a long term holder, the yeild is fantastic.

In the short term, or if you think the ComCom will win, then the high yield probably doesn't offset the regulator risk.

[Xerof]

It's still within the DRiP pricing period, so will be kept low until after that is finalised......

[BIRMANBOY]

Assuming you were referring to the share price, "kept low" is an interesting choice of words. Who, and how spring to mind....care to explain. Is there some monolithic holder controlling all those individual buyers and sellers?
It's still within the DRiP pricing period, so will be kept low until after that is finalised......

[Xerof]

Well, I for one sold out on the first ex-div day, to arbitrage over 10 cents per share. (bought 285 cum, sold 281 ex)

I'm sure there are plenty of others who do the same if they can. Current owners would be disinclined to buy more if they have elected the DRiP, as they would be shooting themselves in the foot. So some natural buying interest will, in theory, have dried up for a short period.

I'd imagine they would be happy to pick them up again soon as its fallen further than the gross divi value, but can't see any buyer motivation until after the 5 day price determination period is up.

There is no 'who and how', and it's only my perspective on how the market might be thinking.

[Mista_Trix]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/9237280/Govt-awaits-ruling-over-copper-tax

Waiting waiting

[TimmyTP]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/technology/digital-living/9244650/Vodafone-launches-consumer-UFB-plans

[Mista_Trix]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/technology/digital-living/9244650/Vodafone-launches-consumer-UFB-plans

Interesting reading for the few comments that were around on this thread a few months ago 'what do we need faster internet for anyways' ... well watching internet tv direct to your tv for a start, plus all the new media that will come out once the faster speed is available everywhere.

[Mista_Trix]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/technology/digital-living/9253212/Ministry-accused-of-secrecy

[BIRMANBOY]

HAs been some action today...was in three times over the course of the day. Has it bottomed?

[BIRMANBOY]

Looks like 2.60 was a turning point. Interesting fact about CNU...31% of shares are held by people signed up for Dividend Reinvestment program. That seems quite high to me but I have no data from other companies to compare against. However one could assume that people who are enrolled in DRP are probably long term holders.

[macduffy]

Looks like 2.60 was a turning point. Interesting fact about CNU...31% of shares are held by people signed up for Dividend Reinvestment program. That seems quite high to me but I have no data from other companies to compare against. However one could assume that people who are enrolled in DRP are probably long term holders.

I wonder if the apparent appeal of the DRP here has anything to do with the fact that a lot of CNU shareholders have been "bequeathed" their shares from the Telecom split and are sitting on smallish, odd lots of shares. Perhaps it's a matter for them of small dividends that might as well be re-invested to grow the holding.

Disc: I'm one of them.

[BIRMANBOY]

Och aye...you could well be right there...good point.
I wonder if the apparent appeal of the DRP here has anything to do with the fact that a lot of CNU shareholders have been "bequeathed" their shares from the Telecom split and are sitting on smallish, odd lots of shares. Perhaps it's a matter for them of small dividends that might as well be re-invested to grow the holding.

Disc: I'm one of them.

[Billy Boy]

[QUOTE=BIRMANBOY;432132]
This is a very good, useful Web Site I use it often, and it's a NZ one
BB:)

[Billy Boy]

www.dividendyield.co.nz (http://www.dividendyield.co.nz/)
I mean
BB

[waikare]

Thanks Billy Boy another useful tool when gathering information on a particular share/s



www.dividendyield.co.nz (http://www.dividendyield.co.nz/)
I mean
BB

[Mista_Trix]

Man, this share's been punished over the last couple of weeks!!

[BIRMANBOY]

Console yourself with the dividend money.....There is going to be uncertainty in the market in this until some clarity is forthcoming about charges and related issues. If you believe in the long range prospects these prices are good buying and I keep topping up when at this level. As I said the dividends are worth the effort. I have close to 100,000 shares so I'm a believer but I can understand how the market is undecided. There has been a lot of comment and opinion on CNU but bottom line is Govt wants UFB and CNU is doing it. Draw your own conclusions. Volatility creates opportunity.

[clip]

well now that the dividends are behind us this stock almosts fit into our trading rules so the price is starting to look attractive at last...

.. just leaves the regulation... greens and labour might derail that ? anyone know the minds of red and green pepper boys and girls?

That's the reason i've been holding off myself... aside from that I think it's a great company and with the current govt having invested so much in them, my feelings are that they will go the extra mile to prop up chorus if need be. I personally would be holding off to see the result of the commerce commissions regulatory ruling before buying however.

[Mista_Trix]

If you believe Cunliffe saying Labour will be "truly Red rather than pale blue" then you should start cashing up after a positive announcement. However, as we all know, he is yet another boring politician that says a lot but does very little when it comes down to it. Not that they're going to win next election anyways...

Will be interesting to see how the cards fall a little closer to the time. It'd be better for NZ if they got in for one more term. But knowing a couple of bills they're sitting on waiting for that third term, I wonder what else is waiting in the wings...

[sharer]

... Not that they're going to win next election anyways...

After recent days, indeed hours, of varied political entertainment (as the latest of several, the last 72 hours Minister J Banks resigned all portfolios as i type), it is becoming increasingly difficult to evaluate such statements of implied probabilities for the election ~1yr hence.
It is difficult to recall a time when the "values" of so many important companies on the stock exchange seem to depend on the politics & ideology of a govt with such a tenuous mandate imposing so many controversial new laws, on minimal parliamentary authority.
I think it would be prudent to reconsider our possible exit strategies, for several of our top companies.

[clip]

It is difficult to recall a time when the "values" of so many important companies on the stock exchange seem to depend on the politics & ideology of a govt with such a tenuous mandate imposing so many controversial new laws, on minimal parliamentary authority.


Well summarized, as unfortunate the situation is.

[BIRMANBOY]

Its easy to allow yourself to be distracted from the fundamentals. The base premise as far as I am concerned is its immaterial who gets in next election (although strong probability it will be National). However common sense should tell you that the rolling out of UFB is not going to be stopped or impeded or shut down regardless of who wins. The only entity capable of rolling it out and delivering is Chorus...therefore it is in everyones interest to see it continue. Imposing draconian penalties and limits on CNU may be called for by fringe groups and any neolithics but reality is if the job is to be done it needs to be profitable for CNU. Everything else is just extraneous noise.

[fiasco]

Absolutely agree, I love watching the price drope. It's an opportunity to further purchase at I believe a discounted price! Plus add to my existing holding. Chorus isn't going anywhere, unless NZ as a whole decides they no longer need data, then Chorus is here to stay. Ultra fast broadband is a necessity for many households and organisations.