CNU - Chorus [Archive] - Page 2

futurist

24-05-2013, 10:46 AM

Markets were ultimately down after Bernanke's speech so I'm not sure you how you think that supports your claims.

In a way, they are over-reacting because anyone could figure out Bernanke's speech even before he made it. Combining the price of commodities and the US figures of the recent months it is not difficult to see the coming back of strong dollar.

So it is interesting to see traders use that speech as an excuse to trade down. I support the claim that it is an over-reaction, but a fake one at best.

For me, I rather spend my time listening to how the Feds give their statement as a reaction to the radical development in the BOJ. Their tone over Japan is telling us that the speech from Bernanke is more of an expectation management than any plan to act now. It is clear that they do not want to end up like the Japanese a decade ago with deflation, so early retraction is out of the question. They might slow down their bond purchase which is reasonable, but no big scale of withdrawal for sure.

What is also extremely clear by now is the future of JPY. With the "sort of" okay from the States, JPY will continue to go down and probably it helps their economy (e.g. Sony is definitely turning back). However, the biggest risk for them now is not how much more money they will print, but rather when their national debt would blow out of control. The pricing of their government bond is very worrying, and really it is a matter of time we see the same debt crisis to be happening in Japan. When that happens, government bond contracts would be unfulfilled at a national level and so the JPY will go straight to hell. Not necessarily this is bad for the Japanese economy but definitely not good for people with assets or retirement savings over there.

So the best investment right now is not to buy this or that, but to short the JPY like there is no tomorrow! Borrowing JPY to buy their assets or shares could be a good idea, but I still find shorting the JPY is more flexible and straight-forward.

000831

24-05-2013, 11:00 AM

4541

what a wonderful graph

Joshuatree

24-05-2013, 11:15 AM

What are you guys doing on the chorus thread? can you please take your "debate" to a market thread thanks.

Vince

24-05-2013, 12:29 PM

All

A reminder that if you work for Chorus you should not be posting on this thread or forum without disclosing you actually work for Chorus and in what capacity.

Regards
Vince

craic

24-05-2013, 01:24 PM

Idon't work for Chorus or anyone - only for money. I rarely enter this discussion because I am rural - by 500 metres - and unlikely to worry about connecting to Chorus. But I do know that the uptake is very slow and I can only surmise that a high percentage of the population are not really interested, unless there are demonstrable benefits and it is free. I can play the markets quietly from my rural idyll and make money without need for a process faster than the speed of light. And there is the awful probability for you chorus investors that another discovery or process will make fibre obsolete, any day now.

Major von Tempsky

24-05-2013, 01:37 PM

Funnily enough I remember reading a big Economist magazine article about 5 or 6 years ago that predicted that fibre-optic cable would be the future and would leave radio connections behind. Since then I have always quoted this prediction to radio boosters and been savagely pooh-poohed that the future is radio connections but The Economist has always proved to be right.
I think the Government is in the position that it has to pay, one way or another, for Chorus to achieve fibre connections and make it worthwhile for consumers to take the fibre connection up.
Actually my broadband collapses so often that some software is now refusing what I want because it says I don't have a reliable connection!
So, I'm looking more kindly towards a fibre connection even if I have to pay a few more dollars.

futurist

24-05-2013, 01:37 PM

What are you guys doing on the chorus thread? can you please take your "debate" to a market thread thanks.

Sorry if I haven't made my point clear how it relates to CNU. But before I ever do that explicitly, may I ask you this: how confident are you and other fellow shareholders that CNU will deliver whatever the company is promising? What are you basing your assumptions on?

It could be a great investment, as there is always a probability for that. But since I am not a micro guy I could only share my macro view. For the last decade and more, I honestly don't think TEL and now TEL & CNU were doing all that great (oh come on don't tell me it is better than putting money in the bank). I am talking about the business itself, even most people care only about the share prices and the dividends. I manage to know a little tiny bit of the culture of this company and even today they still have some people with a mindset dated back like 15 years ago. I mean, why do you think they need to kill 1000 jobs when the same field is sourcing people from overseas to fill the vacancies? They are not killing 1000 jobs, but 1000 old mindsets and outdated culture.

So I don't think it is wise to invest in CNU, particularly at this moment. I mean, what is the one evidence you have to support that this company will deliver, or even outperform? I will rather invest with companies that are innovation-driven, because then I know their people will be fit to bring NZ to the future.

Major von Tempsky

24-05-2013, 01:42 PM

futurist

24-05-2013, 01:47 PM

Exactly what I'm thinking regarding yields and potential capital gain.

Here's what I'm also thinking about CNU:

1. The government, under no circumstances, will permit failure for it's flagship fibre policy. Key, Joyce and others have far too much political capital invested in this for it to fail due to over-regulation by the Commerce Commission. They will be hugely wary of copper broadband being made too cheap and causing incentives to not uptake fibre. Key himself has indicated the government will overrule the Commerce Commission if necessary. (http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1212/S00059/chorus-pricing-decision-very-problematic-says-key.htm)

2. The Commerce Commission itself has indicated its methodology was limited (try flawed!) in relation to unbundled bitstream access pricing. They are expecting to modify their draft position. (http://www.comcom.govt.nz/assets/Telecommunications/STD---Standard-Term-Determinations/UBA/Price-Adjustments/UBA-Price-Review-Draft-Determination-3-December-2012.pdf)

3. The government has essentially sent signals to the market that changes will be made to provide more regulatory certainty. This is reflected in bringing forward the Telco review. (http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/8278183/Chorus-welcomes-faster-telco-review)

Once the regulatory matters are out of the way, the main issue that Chorus will have will be the extra costs associated with connecting people to fibre, when their home is more than a certain distance away from the road. Now, if customers bear that cost, the uptake will be very slow. Chorus don't want to pay for that cost, and Crown Fibre Holdings/The Govt will be reluctant to chip in. But this problem is largely 5 years away since fibre won't be rolled out across most of the country until then. I'm reasonably confident that there will be some kind of contractual accommodation on this, as politics will likely override the letter of the contract.

Agree partially, but what if we take another step forward? Do you think the political power could be big enough to manipulate a market? Meaning, regardless what position the Government has, could they create the demand for UFB if things are not going towards the "right" direction?

I think the political influence here at best could make CNU a viable business not necessarily a great one.

futurist

24-05-2013, 01:53 PM

That's the challenge of sharemarket investment - if it was all cut and dried and guaranteed then there would be no debate. You always have an element of risk and judgment and some people rise to this and others run squawking away to join a socialist political party.

Get burnt from shares then become a socialist? That's a bit too extreme isn't it? It is just like get dumped and the next thing is to schedule a sex-change operation.

The real challenge is to separate signals from noises, but again that applies almost to anything in life, including sex-change operation.

hilskin

24-05-2013, 01:54 PM

hilskin

24-05-2013, 02:12 PM

Wow, I don't know where to begin with this!

1. Yes, uptake is slow, but that is because it has really only just been rolled out in a few areas, and the major retailer of services, Telecom, has only just announced a retail package for fibre.

2. The demonstrable benefits for fibre are profound. Not just entertainment (everyone thinks of the set top entertainment box) but also things like teleconferencing, health and education. Business can send more information, back up faster over the cloud (hugely important), and do more generally at all hours of the day (no slowdown in peak hour times of the day). The soft cost savings from businesses being more efficient with fibre will also be huge (not flying people around as much, people can avoid traffic jams in commuting etc). ADSL also has issues with distance from the exchange, something that fibre doesn't have.

3. I disagree that people want "free fibre". People bought ADSL and broadband over extremely cheap 56k dialup internet because they saw the potential in improving their experience. Fibre will also come down in price over time (or rather, people will get value added benefits)

4. I agree that if you are simply emailing your broker or doing internet banking/share trading, you don't need a fast connection. If you want to talk to a US based cancer specialist about your test results, you need a fast "synchronous" connection, eg one that enables you to send data fast as well as download fast. The problem with ADSL is that it is geared towards being asynchronous - you download much faster than uploading data.

5. The obvious contender to fibre is wireless internet. 4g (and future variants) of wireless internet is extremely fast, and has the advantage of only needing cellular towers spaced at regular intervals instead of digging up footpaths for trenches. However, guess what those cellular towers use to connect to each other and the network in general? Yes, thats's right. Fibre. Also, fibre has big and/or unlimited data plans which are needed for the transfer of those files and data that are made possible by high speeds. You can't do that with 4G. the amount of data on mobile plans is likely to be constrained for some time. Also, 4G and future wireless internet requires spectrum, and that has pricing and constraint issues too, which fibre won't have. There are coverage issues with wireless data as well, whereas if you have fibre, you have a data autobahn.

Again, I take your point that its not for everyone, in the same way that some people don't need to own cars, and some people don't need to fly to get to places. But air travel and car ownership have been hugely transformative nevertheless for most people.

Agree totally with Sparky.
Way back in the day of dial up there was no way I was going to go down the broadband track when I could get dial up for free. Guess what, once I tried Broadband there was no way I was going back to dial up even if it meant I had to pay to stay with broadband and I'm sure most of you out there can say the same thing.

futurist

24-05-2013, 02:13 PM

Until someone comes up with some new way of allowing us to watch tv via the internet, UFB is the future. Sure sky tv is king now but rest assured people will move away from sky when they can watch what they want when they want via their internet connections. All the TV manufactures are designing their tvs with this in mind. Sky has a monopoly now especially around sport but it is sooo much cheaper for sports organisations to deliver their products via the internet and once UFB is in place you will see more and more organisations go this way.
I personally see this as a great company to invest in now as I can get a better return today for my money than in the bank and I believe there is huge potential for this company in the future. There is always risk with investing but I feel I am getting a nice little divi for my troubles.

Thanks for sharing your optimism! Yes we need connectivity and we will need more instead of less of it in the near future. So I agree with you completely here, but not the rest.

Before you claim UFB is the future, do you know how many alternative technologies out there and have been improved dramatically since NZ bets on UFB? Okay let's say those are irrelevant and we desperately need faster internet to watch TV on demand. Again I am with you here because all my TVs are hooked up with either hacked Apple TV or Raspberry Pi for at least a year now so I haven't watched the normal TV for some time. My internet connection has not improved for the last one year but I do notice this. The video streaming technology and the compression mechanism have changed quite a bit and so now my experience of watching any TV program anytime I want is at least 50% better. Many of those are even 1080i. Yes, perhaps it is impossible to watch 4K video now with the existing technology through the same infrastructure, and if you use that argument then sure we all need UFB now. But putting aside the demand of 4K video, how can you be so sure that improving the infrastructure is the only way to improve the situation?

Side track: I think SKY does not have a future with their existing model; but their existence would depend on the general knowledge level among the population of TV watcher.

But if you are happy with your analysis, then I am happy for you too.

futurist

24-05-2013, 02:24 PM

Wow, I don't know where to begin with this!

1. Yes, uptake is slow, but that is because it has really only just been rolled out in a few areas, and the major retailer of services, Telecom, has only just announced a retail package for fibre.

2. The demonstrable benefits for fibre are profound. Not just entertainment (everyone thinks of the set top entertainment box) but also things like teleconferencing, health and education. Business can send more information, back up faster over the cloud (hugely important), and do more generally at all hours of the day (no slowdown in peak hour times of the day). The soft cost savings from businesses being more efficient with fibre will also be huge (not flying people around as much, people can avoid traffic jams in commuting etc). ADSL also has issues with distance from the exchange, something that fibre doesn't have.

3. I disagree that people want "free fibre". People bought ADSL and broadband over extremely cheap 56k dialup internet because they saw the potential in improving their experience. Fibre will also come down in price over time (or rather, people will get value added benefits)

4. I agree that if you are simply emailing your broker or doing internet banking/share trading, you don't need a fast connection. If you want to talk to a US based cancer specialist about your test results, you need a fast "synchronous" connection, eg one that enables you to send data fast as well as download fast. The problem with ADSL is that it is geared towards being asynchronous - you download much faster than uploading data.

5. The obvious contender to fibre is wireless internet. 4g (and future variants) of wireless internet is extremely fast, and has the advantage of only needing cellular towers spaced at regular intervals instead of digging up footpaths for trenches. However, guess what those cellular towers use to connect to each other and the network in general? Yes, thats's right. Fibre. Also, fibre has big and/or unlimited data plans which are needed for the transfer of those files and data that are made possible by high speeds. You can't do that with 4G. the amount of data on mobile plans is likely to be constrained for some time. Also, 4G and future wireless internet requires spectrum, and that has pricing and constraint issues too, which fibre won't have. There are coverage issues with wireless data as well, whereas if you have fibre, you have a data autobahn.

Again, I take your point that its not for everyone, in the same way that some people don't need to own cars, and some people don't need to fly to get to places. But air travel and car ownership have been hugely transformative nevertheless for most people.

Hmm... I think stating the obvious is not the same as an argument to support CNU being a great business. Well, yes of course we need faster internet and eventually one way or the other the infrastructure will be upgraded to cope with the demand. But the question simply is this: now?

Maybe it is now, I don't know. Even it is now, how could we translate that into $$$ for CNU? I mean, you do agree that the uptake is slow (i.e. income), and you agree there is substantial cost involved (i.e. expenditure). So how great this business really is right now?

futurist

24-05-2013, 02:44 PM

Correct me if I am wrong but you are saying there is an overreaction on the downside right? 000831 is claiming an over-reaction in the opposite direction and the reason why US markets didnt decline overnight in reaction to Asian market declines.

Edit: Futurist I agree with you in terms of overeactions re Bernanke and the Fed's statements what I am struggling with is reconciling all of 000831's comments in any logical way.

My bad I didn't read in full length. However to me it is a rational response for the US market to behave differently from the rest of the world. Let's say we over-react and believe the Feds is withdrawing or soon to do so, that means strong dollar is coming back and so traders will sell everything in the world and convert them back to dollar in the anticipation of appreciation, hence the mini collapse everywhere. Then nowadays would you as a trader trust Google and Yum! more or the US Government? I will put money to the shares of MNC instead of buying bonds, and hence the reaction from the market.

So it is still a fake over-reaction for traders to use the speech as an excuse to do their "sell in May" while we could also explain the US market on the same day.

Zeitgeist

24-05-2013, 02:48 PM

You make valid points with respect to UFB. However, in the meantime, CNU creates sufficient revenues from its older networks to make $150m+ profit.

futurist

24-05-2013, 02:55 PM

The hi-tech stocks there are still heading north. but banking, property, construction, mining,steel, manufacture down or unchanged. Chinese index last two years almost unchanged, say 2% change......... 3D print, cloud tech, big data, medical, internet, GPS companies are the targeted and still on the run, they did not affected by yesterday Japan crash.

HONG KONG is in some trouble

Investment-wise Hong Kong has one single trouble: it is pegged with the dollar while its economy is in a complete different cycle period comparing to the States. Strong dollar means a painful correction for Hong Kong, since I doubt they could double their economic output to eliminate the effect of rising currency.

Good decision to sell them, not too sure to buy them back now.

glasszon

24-05-2013, 02:57 PM

Looks like this train is going really fast, any bets on it going below 250 today?

futurist

24-05-2013, 03:06 PM

You make valid points with respect to UFB. However, in the meantime, CNU creates sufficient revenues from its older networks to make $150m+ profit.

Not sure if you are talking to me but I will reply anyway :)

Great, I like people putting some figures out without a context. It becomes so free-style for everyone to interpret it differently. Well let me provide a context then. Do you know how much Microsoft makes as profit per quarter? Yes, a lot more. They also rely on their older products (Windows and Office) to create the revenues. Do you know how their share price have been doing for the last 10 years?

I am not saying CNU is not a profitable business, I am saying it is not a great business and certainly we can find better ones to invest in.

hilskin

24-05-2013, 03:10 PM

[QUOTE:I am not saying CNU is not a profitable business, I am saying it is not a great business and certainly we can find better ones to invest in.[/QUOTE]

Any tips for a novice investor like myself. :)

BIRMANBOY

24-05-2013, 03:17 PM

I used to sing in a chorus..is that ok?
All

A reminder that if you work for Chorus you should not be posting on this thread or forum without disclosing you actually work for Chorus and in what capacity.

Regards
Vince

futurist

24-05-2013, 03:19 PM

[QUOTE:I am not saying CNU is not a profitable business, I am saying it is not a great business and certainly we can find better ones to invest in.

Any tips for a novice investor like myself. :)[/QUOTE]

If shorting JPY is not your thing, then I would consider buying shares with companies trading with the States. It could still be a bit early right now, but if dollar runs high then the kiwi will be low and so those companies would be in good position. I also don't think the kiwi could go up any further and hence all those currency pressure of exporters should be digested by the market like a year ago already. Companies importing Japanese goods or raw materials could be considered too.

But I will wait a little while. Even NZ is a bit far from the rest of the world, high dollar will affect our market as well. So there will be better time next month or the one follows.

hilskin

24-05-2013, 03:27 PM

Any tips for a novice investor like myself. :)

If shorting JPY is not your thing, then I would consider buying shares with companies trading with the States. It could still be a bit early right now, but if dollar runs high then the kiwi will be low and so those companies would be in good position. I also don't think the kiwi could go up any further and hence all those currency pressure of exporters should be digested by the market like a year ago already. Companies importing Japanese goods or raw materials could be considered too.

But I will wait a little while. Even NZ is a bit far from the rest of the world, high dollar will affect our market as well. So there will be better time next month or the one follows.[/QUOTE]

Thanks, I should have asked you this morning before I sold my FPH shares. :)

BIRMANBOY

24-05-2013, 03:34 PM

You infer you dont like figures without context but do exactly the same by saying, "I am saying it is not a great business and certainly we can find better ones to invest in." Whos "we" and whats your frame of reference. You dont need to answer just pointing out the contradiction not to make you wrong but to comment that there would be many others who dont agree. Many different types of investing and investors with all sorts of differing criteria as to what is or isnt a "good investment"
Not sure if you are talking to me but I will reply anyway :)

Great, I like people putting some figures out without a context. It becomes so free-style for everyone to interpret it differently. Well let me provide a context then. Do you know how much Microsoft makes as profit per quarter? Yes, a lot more. They also rely on their older products (Windows and Office) to create the revenues. Do you know how their share price have been doing for the last 10 years?

I am not saying CNU is not a profitable business, I am saying it is not a great business and certainly we can find better ones to invest in.

futurist

24-05-2013, 03:37 PM

Thanks, I should have asked you this morning before I sold my FPH shares. :)

Well I don't know the full story behind so it could be a good thing for you. But if we consider FPH = US market then it is pretty consistent for what happens today. Besides from the currency advantage FPH is also innovation-driven. It is a pretty strong candidate for betting heavy on.

Don't worry, there could be buying chances in June or July: Feds further warning, China hitting the floor, continue saga in EU or BOJ going nuts are all opportunities :)

BIRMANBOY

24-05-2013, 03:42 PM

Heres a tip for you..no charge...Dont do anything based on what posters on this forum say, say they do or tell you what you should be doing. You should be reading, discussing-yes, and when you have formulated a plan designed for you and your circumstances and goals etc. you should make your own decision. You need to remember that everbody on this forum is probably working to different sets of conditions than you.
[QUOTE:I am not saying CNU is not a profitable business, I am saying it is not a great business and certainly we can find better ones to invest in.

Any tips for a novice investor like myself. :)[/QUOTE]

futurist

24-05-2013, 03:51 PM

You infer you dont like figures without context but do exactly the same by saying, "I am saying it is not a great business and certainly we can find better ones to invest in." Whos "we" and whats your frame of reference. You dont need to answer just pointing out the contradiction not to make you wrong but to comment that there would be many others who dont agree. Many different types of investing and investors with all sorts of differing criteria as to what is or isnt a "good investment"

Well, "we" is not a figure or a number, or is it? So ... you did point out something, a contradiction perhaps among your own words, hmm I don't know how to continue because I don't know what "we" are discussing here.

Oh good investment, so what do you think? I think when people say putting money in CNU is a good investment because it yields more interest than the bank, that is equivalent to people say eating french fries every meal is good consumption because it fills more full than eating vegetable. Then when I try to explain the flaw of that statement, someone like you would come out and say, there are different types of people with different bodies and different criteria so perhaps no one could say what is or isn't a good consumption.

Using diversity (or anything) as a reason for not being rational is known as rational ignorance. Don't get me wrong it is not a bad thing; it is just not my thing.

futurist

24-05-2013, 03:56 PM

Heres a tip for you..no charge...Dont do anything based on what posters on this forum say, say they do or tell you what you should be doing. You should be reading, discussing-yes, and when you have formulated a plan designed for you and your circumstances and goals etc. you should make your own decision. You need to remember that everbody on this forum is probably working to different sets of conditions than you.

Any tips for a novice investor like myself. :)[/QUOTE]

Hmm... If we listen to you, then we should really not listen to you according to the content. But if we don't listen to you, we are actually listening to you!

That's brilliant man, I really like it. I am sure you didn't think it through but that doesn't matter; look how beautiful it ends up ...

BIRMANBOY

24-05-2013, 04:06 PM

Look beyond the superficial..and you might understand. The key point you havent grasped is you complain about someone not giving context and then do the same by not describing what the context is for calling CNU a less than desirable investment. If you dont know who "we" is (you use it) how do we know. The problem with your statement is you assume your rationale is right and we are "flawed" which is coming across as rather one eyed ...again as I said...different people with different sets of criteria. To call them flawed is certainly subjective but hardly objective is it? Rationality is defined by whos doing it.
Well, "we" is not a figure or a number, or is it? So ... you did point out something, a contradiction perhaps among your own words, hmm I don't know how to continue because I don't know what "we" are discussing here.

Oh good investment, so what do you think? I think when people say putting money in CNU is a good investment because it yields more interest than the bank, that is equivalent to people say eating french fries every meal is good consumption because it fills more full than eating vegetable. Then when I try to explain the flaw of that statement, someone like you would come out and say, there are different types of people with different bodies and different criteria so perhaps no one could say what is or isn't a good consumption.

Using diversity (or anything) as a reason for not being rational is known as rational ignorance. Don't get me wrong it is not a bad thing; it is just not my thing.

macduffy

24-05-2013, 04:13 PM

This discussion is going completely over my head but meantime, CNU is looking an increasingly attractive proposition when the downtrend reverses.

I know I shouldn't buy a stock that I don't understand but tempting nevertheless.

Zeitgeist

24-05-2013, 04:18 PM

Not sure if you are talking to me but I will reply anyway :)

Great, I like people putting some figures out without a context. It becomes so free-style for everyone to interpret it differently. Well let me provide a context then. Do you know how much Microsoft makes as profit per quarter? Yes, a lot more. They also rely on their older products (Windows and Office) to create the revenues. Do you know how their share price have been doing for the last 10 years?

I am not saying CNU is not a profitable business, I am saying it is not a great business and certainly we can find better ones to invest in.

Apologies for the lack of context. I whole-heartedly reject the appropriateness of the context you have implied :) But seriously...there is a major difference between Microsoft and CNU and it's in CNU's favour (hint: it starts with an "M". I don't see anyone chipping away at CNU's business model any time soon)

My point is: if the same usage is expected from CNU's combination of networks in future as today (it is a zero-sum game), current revenues/profits seem maintainable. Do you have any evidence to suggest this will not happen?

Even if ComCom locks in the prices CNU may charge for its copper network, the SP has arguably factored that in. There may even be a rebound whereby P drops and Q increases over the copper network (not to mention new revenue potential from UFB at that point).

The residual risk at that point is whether CNU will be able to plow-back sufficient copper earnings and/or continue to receive Crown funding to roll-out UFB. If it all gets a bit hard, I highly doubt the Govt. requires CNU to run itself into the ground (so to speak). You'll more likely see a UFB write-down and CNU continuing to earn good $ on its current networks (as reflected right now in its SP including WCS regulatory intervention)

futurist

24-05-2013, 04:19 PM

Look beyond the superficial..and you might understand. The key point you havent grasped is you complain about someone not giving context and then do the same by not describing what the context is for calling CNU a less than desirable investment. If you dont know who "we" is (you use it) how do we know. The problem with your statement is you assume your rationale is right and we are "flawed" which is coming across as rather one eyed ...again as I said...different people with different sets of criteria. To call them flawed is certainly subjective but hardly objective is it? Rationality is defined by whos doing it.

I did not complain, in fact I said that was great for not providing a context so that we could interpret anyway we want. So I took the opportunity to provide one myself. When I present my interpretation, of course that is subjective because that was my interpretation! A subjective statement of course would be biased, but that's what a subjective statement is for! An opinion is not supposed to be objective, as long as it comes from a human being. Otherwise that is not an opinion, that would be a fact. Are we supposed to exchange facts here now in discussing forum?

On the other hand, I use logic and rationality to explain myself to you. That is a different approach from what I said earlier. You can disagree with my content but why on earth you would accuse me of complaining about lack of context or giving subjective opinion? You move the discussion towards ontological level where I don't think you have anything there. Rationality is defined by who's doing it? On my that's not even philosophical, isn't it?

Using your own logic, when you say "the problem with your statement is you assume your rationale is right ..." have you really thought it through? You are saying that to me because you are bigger than any one of us so you are excluded from your own logical conclusion? Come on, wake up. You are not Leo.

Billy Boy

24-05-2013, 04:28 PM

Heres a tip for you..no charge...Dont do anything based on what posters on this forum say, say they do or tell you what you should be doing.

Any tips for a novice investor like myself. :)[/QUOTE]
HEY FEATHERS !!!!!!
What kinda bait U using ???
BB :D

futurist

24-05-2013, 04:31 PM

Apologies for the lack of context. I whole-heartedly reject the appropriateness of the context you have implied :) But seriously...there is a major difference between Microsoft and CNU and it's in CNU's favour (hint: it starts with an "M". I don't see anyone chipping away at CNU's business model any time soon)

My point is: if the same usage is expected from CNU's combination of networks in future as today (it is a zero-sum game), current revenues/profits seem maintainable. Do you have any evidence to suggest this will not happen?

Even if ComCom locks in the prices CNU may charge for its copper network, the SP has arguably factored that in. There may even be a rebound whereby P drops and Q increases over the copper network (not to mention new revenue potential from UFB at that point).

The residual risk at that point is whether CNU will be able to plow-back sufficient copper earnings and/or continue to receive Crown funding to roll-out UFB. If it all gets a bit hard, I highly doubt the Govt. requires CNU to run itself into the ground (so to speak). You'll more likely see a UFB write-down and CNU continuing to earn good $ on its current networks (as reflected right now in its SP including WCS regulatory intervention)

No need to apologize, at least to me since I am not complaining about it, at best I am teasing about it. Well but someone else does think I am complaining about it and hence he is complaining about me complaining about it even I have not done that. What a funny world we are living in.

Good question! Of course I don't have any evidence to suggest those current profits are not maintainable, same as you don't have any evidence to suggest the opposite. Okay, let's say in 10 years time, the fibre would replace the cooper completely. Then there are super nano-string coming out to the market and we will discuss this same topic again, and maybe in 20 years time, those super nano-string will replace all the fibre.

My point is, this doesn't look like a great business to me because it is doing the exact same thing over and over again. Hence I use Microsoft as an example earlier, but at least they have the Xbox division now. I agree CNU is a profitable business and it probably will be for a long time. But is that enough?

Maybe it is a safe place to park the money before there are better opportunities out there, because it yields more than the interest from the bank, hehe :)

brevos

24-05-2013, 05:12 PM

I think one of the major risks for Chorus is that Telecom/Vodafone use their 4G mobile networks to offer "wireless broadband" to the mass market, bypassing Chorus' fibre/copper network. Admittedly this may not work in a number of areas, and for customers on high data plans, but is still a risk to current Chorus revenue streams nonetheless.
As far as I understand, this is essentially what Vodafone are offering as part of their RBI obligations:
http://www.vodafone.co.nz/broadband/wireless/broadband-and-calling/
Thoughts?
Disc: Hold CNU

24-05-2013, 05:35 PM

brevos

24-05-2013, 06:47 PM

Brevos - even if mass market LTE was rolled out:

- fibre is still needed for back haul
- LTE does not have the bandwidth that we will hopefully need (if used as a home replacement). 4xHDTV, conferencing, backup, cloud saas instead of on site server/storage

Edit: and LTE can't compete in price once fibre is rolled out which the govt is currently subsidising

Yes CJ, fibre is needed for backhaul regardless. But the majority of CNU's revenue is driven by the number of homes they service with with either fibre or copper...so losing a fair chunk of those would have a significant impact on revenue.

Agree that LTE doesn't have the bandwidth to compete with fibre, however for many people who only use the internet for email/browsing an LTE-based service would more than suffice. Additionally, mobile technology is constantly improving (e.g LTE advanced is already being trialled) meaning it could conceivably equal (or better) fibre.

airedale

24-05-2013, 08:07 PM

I am sure that this has been debated since TEL and CNU split, but for someone who is not in to either yet....what is the best way to go. Is it either or or, or both for dividends?

Snow Leopard

24-05-2013, 08:12 PM

I do not see the future of digital communication as an either/or situation.
The ability of mobile to offer higher data speeds will continue as will the ability of copper/fibre optic to do likewise. Research continues in both these areas.

Consumers will consume as much entertainment, information, services, lots of things we have not yet thought of, as long as they can reliably download and upload them and provided that the price is affordable. They will have both fixed and mobile connections (even I have both!).

Chorus can be a nice little earner provided that it is managed well and the regulatory environment lets them invest in the necessary technologies. Might be a bit capital intensive though.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: do not hold CNU

Stranger_Danger

24-05-2013, 08:17 PM

My point is, this doesn't look like a great business to me because it is doing the exact same thing over and over again.

Each to their own. Provided the "exact same thing" is profitable and the supply and demand dynamics are easy to predict, that is pretty much my definition of a great business for an investor to own.

janner

24-05-2013, 08:40 PM

Chorus will continue to make money for those that are awake ...

Technology is gaining speed.. Read the other day about an experiment in Germany.. A trial over about a kilometre..
A DVD transmitted in one second..

I live in a time today that was only fantasy.. When only began school..

Have always understood that mans total knowledge doubles every seven years..

Don't believe me.. ??.. Cast your mind back seven years !!..

Copper and Fibre.. ??.. Nah !!.. Take your profits and run..

fish

25-05-2013, 09:05 AM

Apologies for the links to PDFs, but for those of you who like understanding public policy and its impacts on Chorus and the regulatory environment, the following will be of interest.

Letter from the Commerce Commission to Minister Amy Adams, 11 Februar (http://comcom.govt.nz/assets/Telecommunications/STD---Standard-Term-Determinations/UBA/Commerce-Commission-letter-to-Hon-Amy-Adams-re-UBA-Benchmarking-Review-11-February-2013.PDF)y 2013

The letter very much reads like regret that the ComCom's hands are tied by current legislation, and are keen to see changes to the regulatory environment. It seems very relaxed about the prospect of legislative changes to its regulatory framework.

Reply from Amy Adams to the Commerce Commission, 25 February 2013 (http://comcom.govt.nz/assets/Telecommunications/STD---Standard-Term-Determinations/UBA/Response-from-Hon-Amy-Adams-re-UBA-Benchmarking-Review-25-February-2013.PDF)

The minister is clearly foreshadowing changes to draft proposals issued by the ComCom by allowing for a generous time in implementing any new pricing principles.

Maybe I'm reading too much into this, but it is interesting that the Minister, in a formal response to the Telecommunications Commissioner (who holds a doctorate in physics from Cambridge), is addressed by his first name. Perhaps I'm just a bit old school....

Thanks for the reminder.Its clear reading the ministers reply that pricing principles are going to change .It is in the governments interest not to lose much of its investment in chorus

futurist

25-05-2013, 09:23 AM

Each to their own. Provided the "exact same thing" is profitable and the supply and demand dynamics are easy to predict, that is pretty much my definition of a great business for an investor to own.

But your definition of a great business has been proven wrong by Schumpeter since 1942. If investment is future-oriented, then at least you want to bet on something that has a future. By definition, future is not easy to predict; and the further away the harder it is. For example, it is a lot easier for you to predict what is going to happen in a day time then a year time.

When you say that CNU is a great business because it is easy to predict and almost in a perpetual sense, that doesn't not worry me because we need you with this kind of thought in the market. However, it worries me if the employees working in CNU think the exact same way. Google is a great business because it is not just a search engine; Amazon is a great business because it is almost no longer an online store; IBM is a great business because it is actually not in computer business anymore... it is the unpredictability which makes them great, because that what future means. It is creativity and innovation of their people to lead everyone else to the future.

Again, I am happy for people to limit their thinking and stop at certain point, I may even envy you because you don't have the urge to look beyond the obvious. Sure that saves a lot of time, and brain cells.

macduffy

25-05-2013, 09:43 AM

I take your point, futurist but draw the line at limiting the definition of "a great business" at those which have successfully evolved from their original purpose and are constantly looking to evolve further. If that is, in fact what you are proposing. I hesitate to introduce that much-referenced Warren Buffet into the debate but he has often emphasised that his criteria for investment relies heavily on finding companies with dominant positions in their markets and who concentrate on their core competence - think Coca Cola.

Google, Amazon and IBM all achieved dominant positions in their markets before branching out into other areas - which I guess only goes to show that there is room for different approaches to successful investing!

Apologies for probably taking the thread even further off the CNU track!

000831

25-05-2013, 10:02 PM

Investment-wise Hong Kong has one single trouble: it is pegged with the dollar while its economy is in a complete different cycle period comparing to the States. Strong dollar means a painful correction for Hong Kong, since I doubt they could double their economic output to eliminate the effect of rising currency.

Good decision to sell them, not too sure to buy them back now.

Sold them all in HK, bought back one Satellite stock and one 3D stock in Chinese stock exchange.
Sold all in NZ and take a break for a while.

brevos

27-05-2013, 11:59 AM

Sorry Brevos, I just don't see a widespread migration from what is probably wifi enabled copper/fibre in the home to LTE/4G that is either hotspotted from a handheld device or through a wifi enabled LTE/4G modem. While some people can get by with only a couple of gigs of data a month for email and basic browsing, they will need the consistency, coverage and bandwidth that only fast copper or fibre can provide.

So much is now done through the cloud - think about the last time you visited a store to buy software in a box? Everything is done via the net now - which includes regular updates of system software, large productivity packages, games, backups, music streaming, TV and more. Household appliances will be next,

I don't doubt LTE will be formidable and beneficial, but I don't see it as a replacement for fibre in most cases. It will clearly be useful in places fibre can't touch, like in rural areas.

I'm not trying to argue that copper/fibre is dead as everyone will migrate to LTE/4G. But Telecom's 2 biggest costs are staff and Chorus costs...they're actively addressing the former, you'd have to believe they will also try to do something about the latter.

So the scenario I'm talking about is more like Chorus losing 10-20% of their lines (rather than 100%)

BIRMANBOY

28-05-2013, 08:37 AM

Got in again at 2.55..cant see it going too much lower (he said hopefully)!

BIRMANBOY

28-05-2013, 11:15 AM

An inflection I can live with...an infarction (of the myocardial variety) not so much...Dont believe in luck Moosie..just power of trancendental meditation.I'm levitatating as we speak. (as is CNU)
Trendline has been going on for quite awhile now on low(er) volumes, so it could be running out of steam at this point. Gauged with the sentiment on this thread and the government's willingness to talk and accommodate, I would say we are nearing bottom and, perhaps, an inflection point. Good luck Birman ;)

hilskin

28-05-2013, 11:38 AM

Chorus is on the move upwards with low volumes up for sale so could be interesting for all holders.

glasszon

28-05-2013, 11:45 AM

There's still plenty of sellers around though, at least they aren't pushing the price down like few days ago.

BIRMANBOY

29-05-2013, 05:55 PM

CNU SP pushing upwards here now....tried to get more at 2.55 but got shoved aside by eager beavers. Might be ready for a small climb.

glasszon

31-05-2013, 04:58 PM

Ouch, looks like it broke the 2.50 mark, how low can it go?

JayRiggs

31-05-2013, 05:18 PM

It looked like it was going to close at $2.51-2.52, but at 4:58pm, there was a huge sell order of over 300,000 shares placed at ~$2.46.
This pushed the closing price down to $2.49. Someone big was desperate to get out aye.

edgar

31-05-2013, 05:32 PM

Well I was right with my prediction to be sub $2.50 by months end, how much lower now???
JMV

biker

31-05-2013, 07:57 PM

There is certainly a great willingness for certain parties to be out of this stock, but with no new information from the company, surely they must be very good value at these levels. Maybe it's the case of some big fish wanting out and a chance for the tiddlers to have a cheap feed.

comspec

31-05-2013, 10:03 PM

Nice foresight there Edger did you get that crystal ball of trademe :)

STC ~ would you be in accumulation mode if the yield & dividend dropped significantly or the CEO decided to change the rules due to higher costs involved with UFB Rollout.......we hope not. It's always concerned me a CEO investing in the company, a wise paper animal did state earlier that CEO's don't make the best investors and was this even his money???

Chorus in this position I doubt will be able to hold this level of divi for long which will reflect the decline in SP. Id be looking to see what happens in December when the two year mark is up from demerger. Now that will be interesting to watch in the proceeding months.

Snow Leopard

01-06-2013, 12:53 AM

This company is now on an over 14% yield. Either there some with insider news who are dumping in advance of bad news, or there is some serious capitulation going on for a variety of reasons, such as needing to free up capital for other investments.

tempted to keep accumulating at these levels....

It was before your time but there was a much revered technical chappie on these forums who has now moved on to better things* and one of his endearing little habits was collecting little snippets of posts like the above.

He would then paste a little picture showing the downtrend of the stock in question with those little snippets marked in the correct places.

It was quite amusing provided you had not made the quotes.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

*believed to be France.

Snow Leopard

01-06-2013, 12:58 AM

...a wise paper animal did state earlier that CEO's don't make the best investors...

I have been misquoted (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?8673-CNU-Chorus&p=408377&viewfull=1#post408377) :ohmy:

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

BIRMANBOY

01-06-2013, 01:24 PM

Yes, the benefits of hindsight can make even intelligent people annoyingly righteous. Human frailty huh?
It was before your time but there was a much revered technical chappie on these forums who has now moved on to better things* and one of his endearing little habits was collecting little snippets of posts like the above.

He would then paste a little picture showing the downtrend of the stock in question with those little snippets marked in the correct places.

It was quite amusing provided you had not made the quotes.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

*believed to be France.

BIRMANBOY

01-06-2013, 01:35 PM

Billy Boy

01-06-2013, 02:15 PM

This share has certainly had some interesting posts and strong opinions over the last couple of weeks. I have been accumulating believing it will be a grower as soon as the weak willed get burned off. Always impossible to buy right at the bottom however and revisiting new lows always tests the belief systems. Big sale on Friday also has to be seen as a big buy by someone(s) very keen. Half full-half empty. As Sparky says nice divies in the meantime and this alone will drive buyer interest.
.
I assume you are referring to the late SP (off market) sale :-

249
649,708
17:08
SP

This could well be an "in-house" transaction. if so then the deal has very little relevance.
If not, then ........?
BB:bored:

winner69

01-06-2013, 03:37 PM

Chorus one of best places to work in nz

Highly engaged staff lead to superior shareholder returns the lady says

Well done chorus

So guys ...no worries ...the staff are looking after you

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/three-best-kiwi-employers-2013-dc-140828

BIRMANBOY

01-06-2013, 03:41 PM

In-house, out of house..on top of the house..this number of shares changing hands has to have some relevance? Why the "bored" smiley?
.
I assume you are referring to the late SP (off market) sale :-

249

649,708

17:08

SP

This could well be an "in-house" transaction. if so then the deal has very little relevance.
If not, then ........?
BB:bored:

Billy Boy

02-06-2013, 12:18 PM

In-house, out of house..on top of the house..this number of shares changing hands has to have some relevance? Why the "bored" smiley?
Sorry about the smiley... wrong button.

"In-house, out of house..on top of the house"... You are playing with words here.
It cost bugger all for the Into's to to re- domicile their holdings. The 'relevance' I
refer to is exchange wise. Note I did not say NO relevance. I said "Very Little".
If these trades (SP) are in house then only effect in the market place is the change
to the volumes & VWAP, the shares have gone nowhere. If they have changed
real hands then thats different.

249
649,708
17:08
SP

Do you know between who?, Brokers etc do, there again is that what you are ??;)
IMO. this sort of exchanges of shares should be a lot more transparent to us folk.
How about SPIH = Off Market, In House.
INSP = Intn.Crossing, offmarket.
etc.....
BB:)

BIRMANBOY

02-06-2013, 04:56 PM

Broker ..no broken ..somewhat. Yes agree the transparency as to details is a mystery to me. From my uneducated point of view, it "looks" like either CNU bought some of their own stock back as it "appeared too cheap"?? However I was under the impression that this needed to be declared to the NZX ..so maybe not. Or one of the brokerage houses "thought was too cheap" or "too volatile. However at its simplest level someone exchanged a large number of shares for something....why?...I have no idea...who? have no idea. Would be interested in finding out the facts as opposed to us speculating about it.
Sorry about the smiley... wrong button.

"In-house, out of house..on top of the house"... You are playing with words here.
It cost bugger all for the Into's to to re- domicile their holdings. The 'relevance' I
refer to is exchange wise. Note I did not say NO relevance. I said "Very Little".
If these trades (SP) are in house then only effect in the market place is the change
to the volumes & VWAP, the shares have gone nowhere. If they have changed
real hands then thats different.

249

649,708

17:08

SP

Do you know between who?, Brokers etc do, there again is that what you are ??;)
IMO. this sort of exchanges of shares should be a lot more transparent to us folk.
How about SPIH = Off Market, In House.
INSP = Intn.Crossing, offmarket.
etc.....
BB:)

Billy Boy

03-06-2013, 12:16 PM

FBU is a good one to look at

837.3
7,955
17:24
WA

837
4,787
17:24
SP

837
10,512
17:23
SP

837
10,512
17:22
SP

837
94
17:22
SP

837
204
17:22
SP

837
7,345
17:16
SP

837
717,211
17:08
SP

837
112,802
17:07
SP

837
50,000
17:06
SP

840
378,000
17:06
SP

837
3,000
17:05
SP

837
15,329
17:05
SP

837
15,800
17:05
SP

837
8,368
17:04
SP

All after the bell !!
What the hell ?? not really a level playing field for us ordinary folk.
In fact it is distorting the data, thereby misleading I fell.
Maybe the NZX could/should be held to account ??
BB

BIRMANBOY

03-06-2013, 02:00 PM

Billy Boy

03-06-2013, 02:53 PM

I have sent the following email to DB to see what they say. They are probably constrained by privacy concerns for particulars but it would be nice to get a general idea.
Hi Direct Broking Team,
A/c xxxxxxxxx here. I have a question regards the after and before market share transactions shown in the Depth.. So for example CNU showed @5.08 a parcel of 649,708 @2.49 with a “SP” under “cond” heading. Do you have a breakdown of what these associated acronyms stand for? Thanks for shedding some light

I have a list on my office wall. Cant think where the hell I got it from.
SP stands for = Off market transaction
IN = Internatonal Crossing
OL = Market Trade (too small for price setting)
LT = Late Reported
PF = Portfolio Marriage
SS = Short Sell
XX = Extra Ordinary

Now the ASX have some interesting one's :-

BK = Buy Back
BP = Booking purposes Only
BV = Book Value Switch
BZ = Board Broker Sale

to name a few.
Why Cant the NZX have the same or similar
I like the "BK" (buy back). Tell volumes would'nt it
So here's my non existent favorite SPIH = Off Market In House
Will be interesting to see how DB will respond
cheers BB

BIRMANBOY

03-06-2013, 03:09 PM

If you navigate to the bottom of the main website and click the “Help” link, it will display a pop up box. From here, click “Glossary”, then scroll to “Condition Codes”.
DB condition codes as below..as per Johnny at DB

Condition codesCondition codes apply to the Course of Trade display available on the depth view and denote any unusual trades. Note that some conditions may not apply to all Exchanges.
The following details the various conditions for NZX trades:

IN
LT
OS
OL
PF
SP
SS
WA
XX

International
Late Reported
Overseas
Market Trade (too small for price setting)
Portfolio Marriage
Off Market
Short Sell
Weighted Average
Extra-ordinary

The following details the various conditions for ASX trades:
Transaction Types

AM
BK
BP
BV
BW
BZ
CT
CO
CX
DR
EC
EP
LN
LR
PO
PR
PS
PT
IA

ASX match facility trade
Buy back
Booking purpose only
Book value switch
Buy write
Board broker sale
Combination trade
Standard combination trade
Centre Point
Direct reporting
Exercise of Call
Exercise of Put
Loan
Loan return
Permitted Trade During Pre-Trading Hours Period
Prompt re-booking
Prompt Sale
Put through
Interstate Accounting

Time or Location

LT
ON
OS

Late
Overnight
Overseas

Delivery

EF
FD
OF
OR
BL

Delivery of a future
Forward delivery
Overseas delivery
Overseas resident
Blocked from transaction netting

Market Information Only

MI

Market Information

Crossing/Special

XT
IB
SP
CS
SX
SO
SA

Crossed trades
Index replicating special crossing
Special sale
Contingent special
Special sale portfolio
Other special sale
Special crossing sale

glasszon

05-06-2013, 11:21 AM

The share price is still tanking on no news with net yield above 10%, is this going too far or the regulatory impact is just so huge that no one cares about anything else?

tosspot

05-06-2013, 11:36 AM

I believe its just worry. but i dont think the comcom will go through with the original plan. they will most likely meet them halfway. So there should be a jump in the share price if it keeps sinking ill probably buy in on friday

sideline

05-06-2013, 12:36 PM

The only relevant info I found are two new research reports (both chargeable) released recently:

31-May-13 Reuters Investment Profile: Chorus Ltd: Business description, financial summary, ........
2-June-13 Thomson Reuters Stock Report - CHORUS LIMITED (CNU-NZ)

maybe there is something in these reports causing the decline?
If somebody here has access to those reports, what do they say in a nutshell??

sideline

05-06-2013, 01:02 PM

Could be. But the question is, is anyone willing to pay for them (not I, currently totally invested in others), and would they then be willing to risk a wet-bus ticket slap by posting the highlights of the report on here?

A one-liner quote is hardly a copyright infringement.

Joshuatree

06-06-2013, 08:15 AM

Right. Ive also heard that there may be Japanese investors pulling their funds back home.

peat

06-06-2013, 10:58 AM

ending diagonal triangle?
hammer
capitulation?

000831

06-06-2013, 11:16 AM

Right. Ive also heard that there may be Japanese investors pulling their funds back home.

That's called " Yen Carried Trade". International companies borrow nearly zero from Japan, converting into other currencies to buy shares, bonds and equities. When the Japanese RB increases the interest rate, distaster would happen. Foreign investments have to retreat back to Japan and cause huge global financial turbulence. Nowadays, US and other countries joined this game. The monetary policy did help domestic banking system after 2007/2008, but brings more pain in the long run and make larger bubble later.

futurist

06-06-2013, 03:39 PM

That's called " Yen Carried Trade". International companies borrow nearly zero from Japan, converting into other currencies to buy shares, bonds and equities. When the Japanese RB increases the interest rate, distaster would happen. Foreign investments have to retreat back to Japan and cause huge global financial turbulence. Nowadays, US and other countries joined this game. The monetary policy did help domestic banking system after 2007/2008, but brings more pain in the long run and make larger bubble later.

BoJ plans to double the money supply and they are buying all the government bonds. So not sure why you would suspect an increase of the interest rate. They want inflation very badly.

Money returning home is a myth because it is foreseeable JPY will continue to go down. That means their loan actually gets smaller. It makes sense to keep money in other currencies or foreign assets. That actually is the fear of Japanese government and BoJ of the down side of their crazy economic policy right now.

This is just the beginning of their reform. Don't forget the coming election which it is very likely Japan will be completely ruled by one party again. That means the government could push even more radical ideas.

There are two endings here, either the economy picks up with an inflation, or the economy still dies plus the government defaults. Both situation warrants a downward trend of JPY.

RE CNU, I thought it is mostly a long term investment. I wonder why people are so concerned about the everyday movement of the share price?

hilskin

06-06-2013, 04:29 PM

RE CNU, I thought it is mostly a long term investment. I wonder why people are so concerned about the everyday movement of the share price?[/QUOTE]

No concern, love watching it head upwards at the moment though. $2.56 and climbing

futurist

06-06-2013, 05:20 PM

RE CNU, I thought it is mostly a long term investment. I wonder why people are so concerned about the everyday movement of the share price?

No concern, love watching it head upwards at the moment though. $2.56 and climbing[/QUOTE]

You mean from the height of $3.40 a year ago where it goes in opposite direction with the index in one of the best performing years?

I know, it is a dividend share and hence no one should care about the share price. In fact, the dividend yield just goes up when the share price goes down so it is always winning one way or the other.

peat

07-06-2013, 12:34 AM

Got pretty pictures to go with that?

no sorry
but bullish engulfing has followed. all on

glasszon

10-06-2013, 11:16 AM

Am I the only one who cannot figure out what's going on with CNU? It dropped a lot last two weeks on no news and now it is bouncing back very strongly, again no news came out either.

tosspot

10-06-2013, 11:22 AM

Am I the only one who cannot figure out what's going on with CNU? It dropped a lot last two weeks on no news and now it is bouncing back very strongly, again no news came out either.
comcom decision has a hearing this week. people are most likely anticipating good news or better than what they have

craic

10-06-2013, 12:58 PM

Nobody see the news last night? CNU has a !% uptake among homes - that is 1% of the homes where it is available. The other fast option, a coppper competitor is cheaper and several times faster than the normal broadband. I can trade successfully without stuff faster than the speed of light and I suspect that that is a common attitude out there. If I had money in CNU it would go back to TEL - at normal broadband speed - rather than sitting there, waiting for the second coming.

10-06-2013, 01:41 PM

Nobody see the news last night? CNU has a !% uptake among homes - that is 1% of the homes where it is available. It is a chicken and egg problem at the moment. With existing services, you are right, copper is more than enough, but with new video services (should they ever arrive) fibre is essential.

Another issue is has been rolled out in areas that are not naturally early adopters. They should have focused on richer suburbs and other key demographics (student areas, businesses). Instead, they have gone for a hodgepodge of towns.

I plan to get it once available in my area.

tosspot

10-06-2013, 02:24 PM

tosspot - there is unlikely to be a decision this week. It is a conference on the draft UBA pricing (June 12/13), which will see affected parties publicly reiterate their positions. But there won't be anything concrete until August I would guess.

http://www.comcom.govt.nz/uba-benchmarking-review/

As I mentioned last week, a number of trans-tasman funds have exited CNU due to frustration over the NZ regulatory environment. However, I firmly believe it has been oversold, and that rational buyers are coming back to CNU after realising that even on a bad case (1/3rd slashing of the dividend from 2015 onwards), CNU offers a yield of around 10.9% gross over the next five years.
yea thats essentially what I meant, should have worded it better but after the next few days there should be a bit more guidance or at least a small indication of the outcome.

POSSUM THE CAT

10-06-2013, 02:26 PM

Sparky do you know where we can get a roll out timetable for West Auckland

10-06-2013, 02:45 PM

Roll out map with dates: http://www.chorus.co.nz/network-upgrade-mapMine should be in my June 14. I am not sure whether the current works in my area are Vector or Chorus, having seen both vans parked up.

Agree with the Clown - the government wont let their 1.5B investment go to waste. They need more people connected and the only way for that to happen is to ensure the existing solution isn't priced to favourably.

iceman

10-06-2013, 11:31 PM

So to summarise the headwinds and potential outcomes facing Chorus:

1. UBA pricing, dictated by the Commerce Commission.

If implemented as per the draft outcome, it could slash CNU earnings from 42c in 2012 to around 33c in 2015, or roughly 23% down.

I have assumed a 1/3 cut in dividend under a worst case scenario for 2015, so from 25.5c to 17c. In all likelihood, they should be able to manage 19-20c even under worst case.

But the consequences of the ComCom being permitted to deliver on a methodology they felt was limited would be disastrous. Investors would flee any regulated NZX businesses and associated firms like power companies, infratil, airports, telcos. Hence why I doubt it is going to happen.

2. Cost of rollout (retail)

The cost of getting fibre from the footpath to the home is working out to be pricer than expected. At the moment, the deal with the state covers the first 15m. But if the govt wants uptake in fibre, it is going to have to solve this.

In urban areas, those who live down long driveways tend to be wealthier, and therefore are the kind of people with the discretionary income to buy better broadband. But they won't fork out $1500 or $5000 to have a thin strand of glass sent down their driveway just so they can get Apple TV faster. They might happily move to VDSL and stay there. And that's no good for the government. They will come to an arrangement with Chorus, who can happily cross their arms and say "well, we did our bit by getting the fibre under the footpaths", and simply rely on VDSL for income for the next five years. National will not permit their flagship policy to fail for the lack of a small subsidy to CNU and other UFB suppliers to help roll out fibre from footpath to the living room.

3. Alternatives to fibre

VDSL, the next best thing after ADSL is now becoming available. However, it requires properties to be very close to the exchange. So it won't work for every house.

Mobile data is also getting very fast, but it is hard to see mobile data being available on big enough plans to justify 4G as a replacement for DSL or fibre in the home to download movies or provide upload speeds needed for HD videoconferencing or entertainment like games.

Upsides

a. Taking a five year view, an investor at today's share price of $2.57 would on worst case get two years of dividends at 13.8% and three years at 9.2%. All in all, that's an average of 11% gross yield.

b. It's priced near a historical low, based on negative sentiment around draft regulatory proposals that the ComCom expects to be modified, and the government has said would be modified. So good odds on the price going up post final UBA pricing and again after the govt completes the Telecommunications Review.

c. Say what you like, but the information posted by Winner69 about Chorus being a great place to work is a very good sign. I don't hear the workers of Rakon lining up to say what a wonderful company they are. Industry recognition is always a good sign (Summerset winning RV operator of the year, Ryman winning Deloitte Company of the year etc etc).

Thanks for this Sparky. Very informative. One additional issue I need to add here is that on my recent travels, I have become painfully aware how ridiculously slow our "broadband"really is.
In simple terms, NZ is being left behind.

There is no question that NZ needs to move onto very fast fiber if we want to be serious, especially with the increasing business with China that is fast growing and will be demanding fast and immediate access to our products via internet.

One example is that today we had NZ Pure Shop going live where Chinese consumers can buy NZ produce on line, backed up by serious businesses like the Talleys,, Sanitarium, King Salmon and more. This is the sort of stuff that will move NZ ahead and we need very fast fibre connections to do it.

DISCL: Despite NZ Pure Shop being in Nelson like myself, I have absolutely no interest or connection to NZ Pure Shop but am excited and support the initiative wholeheartedly

Aaron

11-06-2013, 09:03 AM

Thanks for the analysis STC. Keep it coming.

stoploss

11-06-2013, 01:49 PM

Not sure if this is old news....
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/8781595/Telecom-expects-more-UFB-sign-ups-after-deal

hilskin

11-06-2013, 02:25 PM

Thanks for the post, very interesting

11-06-2013, 02:27 PM

Not sure if this is old news....
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/8781595/Telecom-expects-more-UFB-sign-ups-after-deal

No, I think this is current news. Thanks for the post.It is new news but it was expected. It was a technical block to being able to sign people up.

I hope we see more of these news items to come such as comcom decision, govt funding of connections etc which are all technical/cost blocks to being able to sign people up.

POSSUM THE CAT

12-06-2013, 09:50 AM

12-06-2013, 10:00 AM

Sparky The Clown: An example of the mismanagement of this Fibre Optic Cable was layed down my street in West Auckland yesterday. No notification or other contact to ask if we were interested in connecting up to this facility. A check on the internet said the earliest possibility of connection was June 2015. You would think if they were laying cable they would be looking for customers to connect to it.Just because the cable is laid, doesn't mean that it is connected. I understand it is a two stage process. It gets laid and then once operational, they then connect to any houses that want it.

POSSUM THE CAT

12-06-2013, 10:25 AM

CJ a bit silly laying a cable that is not going to be used for at least Two Years.

POSSUM THE CAT

12-06-2013, 11:50 AM

Sparky The Clown maybe it confirms what I have all ways thought. That John Key's National Government is the most useless IMHO we have had to put up with for many years. It would not matter if it was coming out of the politicians personal pocket. Why are they complaining about the lack of uptake from places that the cable passes then.

12-06-2013, 12:27 PM

Also remember that there has been a limited advertising push so far.

Sure only 1% of the 100,000 homes have connected, but only 100,000 homes out of a total of 2,000,000 have it running past their front door so why would you do a multi-million dollar ad campaign.

I always thought it was a strategic mistake not to rollout quickly in Auckland (esp righ suburbs) first as they are more likely to subscribe. Having said that, in 2 years time, fibre will be the only advertising you will see.

POSSUM THE CAT

12-06-2013, 01:07 PM

CJ why would they pay for an advertising push? When the cable is running past the door less than 15metres away & they tell you it is over two years away. This is 2years revenue down the drain.

12-06-2013, 02:02 PM

CJ why would they pay for an advertising push? When the cable is running past the door less than 15metres away & they tell you it is over two years away. This is 2years revenue down the drain.I was refering to Telecom/Vodafone/etc.

You dont know the install timetable for your area. A far as you know, you are the first 100m of a 10km network, and you want them to spend money on all the feeders now. Like building a 10km motor way and putting in all the lampposts as you do each 10m bit of tarmac. I dont know the timetable either but I am guessing it is at least a year till that piece of fiber gets lit.

peat

12-06-2013, 02:48 PM

4596
no sorry
but bullish engulfing has followed. all on

Got pretty pictures to go with that?

finally done this for you....

POSSUM THE CAT

12-06-2013, 02:49 PM

Cj I can not understand this reasoning. You do not establish the branches of a tree then grow the trunk. Would it not be logical to make a lot of the household connections when the workforce was there. As comeback maybe 100 or more different times to connect each household as they apply for connection. At least in my opinion, I would jump at the chance provided they could give a reasonable date to go live.

Snow Leopard

12-06-2013, 08:01 PM

Here's te link to Mark Ratcliffes comments at the conference today

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/176680.pdf

It sets out Chorus' position very well, IMO.

I notice that he talks about a $160M EBITDA hit, which I calculate would result in NPAT dropping to a third of current levels (all else being equal), no wonder he is not happy.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

RTM

12-06-2013, 08:38 PM

Thanks for the link Sparky, much appreciated.
What a poor environment to try to manage a business under.
Cheers, RTM

noodles

12-06-2013, 08:39 PM

Yes, hence why I have used a 1/3rd cut in the dividend in my thoughts in previous posts.

If worse case did happen and there was a $160 EBITDA hit, would that cause a breach of banking covenants? This would likely trigger a capital raising? A capital raising would dilute existing shareholders reducing eps and dps?

Still, I can't see them being hit too hard. This is political and John Key won't shoot himself in the foot.

Good luck to holders.

Snow Leopard

12-06-2013, 08:40 PM

Yes, hence why I have used a 1/3rd cut in the dividend in my thoughts in previous posts.

Sparky, not by a third (say $180M to $120M) but to a third ($180M to $60M)

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

NZSilver

12-06-2013, 08:56 PM

Everything we already know, but still interesting to see this on the motley fool aus page.

http://www.fool.com.au/2013/06/12/joining-the-chorus/

craic

12-06-2013, 08:56 PM

I told you so

Xerof

12-06-2013, 08:59 PM

Yeah but...... If a 160m drop equates to a 2/3rd reduction in NPAT, why would you assume only a 1/3rd drop in divi?

I still think the cavalry will come charging over the hill to the rescue, but gee, I also understand why offshore holders are throwing the towel in.

oh, the tiger already picked up the anomaly

glasszon

13-06-2013, 11:03 AM

Is anyone at the conference? The share price for CNU has tanked but I can't seems to locate any news relating to this today.

peat

13-06-2013, 11:26 AM

the hammer shows support at the 2:45 level moosie. but if broken.....!!

Hoop

13-06-2013, 11:59 AM

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/CNU13062013.gif (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/CNU13062013.gif.html)

Joshuatree

13-06-2013, 12:35 PM

Trend is down but on min vol?

Snoopy

13-06-2013, 03:39 PM

Here's te link to Mark Ratcliffes comments at the conference today

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/176680.pdf

It sets out Chorus' position very well, IMO.

"If the incoherency in the framework is not reconciled, it will impact every New
Zealander:

 International investors will simply walk away from New Zealand - Chorus’
proportion of international shareholders has declined from around 55% to around
45% since the draft UBA decision. At the time of demerger, around 75% of
Chorus shares were held by international investors so there has been a dramatic
flight of international capital out of Chorus and NZ."

In my view it is a good thing so many overseas investors have sold out of CNU. CNU is a domestically focused share. It is ridiculous that foreigners should own more than 75% on NZs own local network. No objection to foreign ownership as a general rule. But on a domestically focused share like this, it seems more likely that local investors will be in psychologically better place to control the future of our own broadband roll out.

SNOOPY

13-06-2013, 03:51 PM

In my view it is a good thing so many overseas investors have sold out of CNU. CNU is a domestically focused share. It is ridiculous that foreigners should own more than 75% on NZs own local network. No objection to foreign ownership as a general rule. But on a domestically focused share like this, it seems more likely that local investors will be in psychologically better place to control the future of our own broadband roll out.ON the one hand, I understand what you are saying but in reality, this is exactly the sort of share the overseas investors like (in theory).

Infrastructure shares provide consistent returns with relatively low risk <- every pension funds managers wet dream.

And then the ComCom comes along and complete changes the playing field. If the prices they are proposing are correct, then the prices they previously signed off pre-demerger on were incorrect. If that is the case, they sat on their hands for over a decade while old Telecom ripped of the New Zealand consumer.

craic

13-06-2013, 05:13 PM

The public are not buying the service, never mind the hype. Remember Claytons Whiskey? it had exactly the same problem.

futurist

13-06-2013, 06:00 PM

Foreigners tend to like NZ because we offer superior yield to their domestic markets, and offer transparency, rule of law, etc etc. I for one welcome foreign investment in Chorus and any NZX listed company (though I understand the point you are making)

I don't believe Chorus is any less desirable to other investors simply because its market is wholly NZ based. It has become less desirable because of regulatory uncertainty.

I simply don't believe that local investors have any better claim than foreign investors in controlling the NZ broadband rollout when

- the fibre rollout is in partnership with the government (who clearly are the customer)
- the Commerce Commission is the one currently in the driver's seat because of regulatory creep
- the govt will set future direction by virtue of the impending Telco Review, potentially overriding the ComCom (fingers crossed)

Superior yield, based on what, gut feeling? Is NZ doing better than .. I dunno Hong Kong or even Turkey? Is the NZD more trustworthy than the dollars? And how regulatory uncertainty means different things to transparency? If you cannot see through something, isn't that being not transparent?

CNU is a NZ company with a local focus. People do not need 3 or 4 internet connections to their homes and so the business of CNU depends on upgrading the equipment and infrastructure every decade or so. Also it relies on the assumption that there will be no direct competition for the foreseeable future due to the cost involved. What if competitors come from an indirect source? Where is the upside that many of you willing to put your faith in? Oh yeah when foreign interest is walking away, you don't see that as a problem of the business but just regulatory uncertainty. If CNU itself is a by-product of regulatory uncertainty, how could it ever be separated from that?

chad321

14-06-2013, 07:46 AM

Yikes.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/technology/8794117/Jury-out-on-billion-dollar-gamble

14-06-2013, 09:11 AM

Stupid question but does Chorus have an obligation to continue providing copper services in areas where Fibre has been rolled out.

This is a duplicate network and at some stage they must be able to phase out copper, provided there is an alternative. If the pricing is all wrong, then that phase would surely be earlier rather than later.

14-06-2013, 10:08 AM

(Ripping out copper lines)That would be one way to increase the uptake.

Kind of like the transition to digital TV - a couple of years notice then boom. Or when Telecom turned off their old celular network after running 2 in tandem for a few years.

14-06-2013, 10:10 AM

(Ripping out copper lines)Plus think of the scrap value. Anything copper (or metal) is the first thing that goes whenever there is an inorganic collection in the area.
:)

hilskin

14-06-2013, 10:32 AM

Hi Sparky, if the government doesn't step in (I believe it will) how does Chorus look now that we have a possible worst case scenario of $14.00.
I'd try to work it out but would no doubt get it horribly wrong. cheers

Slowlearna

14-06-2013, 12:43 PM

Plus think of the scrap value. Anything copper (or metal) is the first thing that goes whenever there is an inorganic collection in the area.
:)

Copper $7.20 per Kg and CNU have so much they will flood the market. Copper price $3.60 and falling.....

hilskin

14-06-2013, 02:53 PM

Thanks Sparky

Snoopy

14-06-2013, 04:03 PM

Foreigners tend to like NZ because we offer superior yield to their domestic markets, and offer transparency, rule of law, etc etc. I for one welcome foreign investment in Chorus and any NZX listed company (though I understand the point you are making)

Yes, but in a world of global investment all of those points apply equally as advantages to New Zealand investors. In fact NZ investors will get the better deal cf over seas investors if they can properly utilize those Chorus imputation credits.

I don't believe Chorus is any less desirable to other investors simply because its market is wholly NZ based. It has become less desirable because of regulatory uncertainty.

I simply don't believe that local investors have any better claim than foreign investors in controlling the NZ broadband rollout when

- the fibre rollout is in partnership with the government (who clearly are the customer)
- the Commerce Commission is the one currently in the driver's seat because of regulatory creep
- the govt will set future direction by virtue of the impending Telco Review, potentially overriding the ComCom (fingers crossed)

When things are going well, I agree that from a customer perspective there is little difference, that is connected with whose capital is used for the construction.

Down the line I believe that local capital is more likely to be aligned with local interests. A sell down by overseas investors due to some shock in their home market might mean it is more difficult to raise capital to fix any structural problems Chorus might have in the future.

SNOOPY

14-06-2013, 04:14 PM

Yes, but in a world of global investment all of those points apply equally as advantages to New Zealand investors. So not an argument either way.
In fact NZ investors will get the better deal cf over seas investors if they can properly utilize those Chorus imputation credits.NOt necessarily. The dividends received may not be taxable income in the foreign jurisdiction so they would receive the same net yield. If it is taxable income, the tax credits (IC's) may be recognisable. Don't assume the same double taxation as NZ.

18-06-2013, 03:05 PM

And if we think that 8.5% is a decent yield for a regulated monopoly like Chorus...

In fact, the price should be higher yet, because no matter what happens to the dividend in 2015, the next two years of dividends are still being paid out at 25.5c or 13.6% at today's price of $2.60[/FONT]HOw did you decide on 8.5%.

VCT has a gross yield of about 7.3% which would increase the share prices in your model further.

Do you have a different yield for VCT (I used ASB) and if not, why do you draw a distinction between them since they are both regulated lines companies (albeit, one is comms and the other is elec/gas).

glasszon

18-06-2013, 04:32 PM

The market doesn't seems to agree with your analysis though, it tanked back to 2.56 now.

18-06-2013, 04:40 PM

My point is the market has determined 7.3%(ie VCT) to be the yield on a regulated business that has gone through (most) of its regulatory uncertainty.

The question for me is not whether 7.3% is the right yield to use but what is the correct eps and therefore cps to apply it against. For some reason, the market is betting on the ComCom winning.

glasszon

19-06-2013, 04:29 PM

CNU price came crashing down again.

Arbroath

19-06-2013, 04:53 PM

By crashing down, you mean it was down 1.9% for the day, when the NZX was down 0.5% overall?

I'm not sure that represents a crash. It's not for me to tell you how to approach issues of portfolio volatility, but I'd be careful against panicking too much in daily movements of 1-2%. Shares go up and down every day, and often for no good reason.....

Its pretty clear an Insto or two is happy to offload at anything $2.50+ and its matter of letting some support build and then hitting the bids - likely some of the Aussie funds who have been quitting. As such I think a $2.45-2.65 tight range is likely until some new news so to speak.

Snow Leopard

19-06-2013, 05:26 PM

After staying at the 13 months worth of available accounts, and the using the claims by CNU that a drop from the current $21.46 to the proposed $8.93 for the monthly UBA price would cost them $160M a year in revenue and make them reconsider whether it was worth getting up and going to work in the morning I have arrived at:

If the UBA price was settled at $16.00 then EPS would be $0.303 and maintaining a dividend of $0.25 would mean either:
cutting new investment by a third;
increasing borrowing (currently they seem to be maintaining debt levels);
getting more Crown funding.

My bet would be that the dividend would be cut to $0.18 or less as part of the balancing act with a slowed rollout of this fibre thingy.

A UBA of $14.00 would result in an EPS of $0.255 and further cuts all round.

Given this is all about providing high-speed internet to the masses to watch soccer and has a political aspect it will be interesting to see what is actually resolved.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Joshuatree

19-06-2013, 07:05 PM

Downgrade to sell from Craigs today.12 month price target $2.29. P M me an email address if you want to look. JT

Aaron

20-06-2013, 08:35 AM

I use ASB Securities and now wonder if the Morningstar analysts are perennial optimists with CNU valued at $3.60 accumulate and MRP$2.70 hold.
I heard on the radio in Australia a comparable charge for their old/copper telecom network was over $20. Now might be a good time for the govt to compare CNU's situation with what is happening in Australia.

20-06-2013, 08:45 AM

I heard on the radio in Australia a comparable charge for their old/copper telecom network was over $20. Now might be a good time for the govt to compare CNU's situation with what is happening in Australia.Apparently it isn't a like for like comparison so you can compare ComCom's $8 to Australia's $20. Having said that $8 is still far to low and anywhere above $15 sounds more reasonable, given we (the Govt) wants to encourage Fibre participation.

Mista_Trix

20-06-2013, 10:00 AM

The loss of Premier League football by Sky will have some interesting effects on fiber uptake in the medium term.

My flatmate watches a lot of sports, but decides to illegally stream them online as no sports package tailors itself to the games he wants to watch, and nobody provides a way to pick and choose legitimately (the operator also chooses which game wins out if there's a clash, and with his weird mix of teams he follows in rugby, league and football this happens frequently with subscription packages).

The public is seeing the beginning of the move to digitally provided content and the demand this will have on internet providers to sell larger data packages, and the flow on effect of the lines companies to provide them.

Good timing for the debate around that inevitable 'next step' to get a little more in the public mindset. Even with a bit of div fluctuation I'm still with Sparky on this one, even if the SP comes down I'll just scoop up some more. It's a long term thang.

glasszon

20-06-2013, 11:57 AM

I take no pleasure in guessing correctly though...., finally had enough and cut my position at a large loss, good luck for anyone still holding CNU.

chad321

20-06-2013, 12:12 PM

So why the big drop today?

newtrader

20-06-2013, 12:18 PM

So why the big drop today?

Perhaps it was due to Craig's downgrade valuation to $2.29

Snow Leopard

20-06-2013, 12:43 PM

...they couldn't even pick a winner out of a Rugby Pool that includes NZ, Georgia, Botswana and Nigeria!

Do you not remember All Blacks vs Munster on the 31st October 1978 ?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Beagle

20-06-2013, 12:46 PM

Exactly. It's a big company with big funds trading in and out. They listen to the advice given by the "experts". Everyone just ignore and rubbishes Moaningstar because, well, frankly, they couldn't even pick a winner out of a Rugby Pool that includes NZ, Georgia, Botswana and Nigeria!

LOL classic. This is ugly and i feel sorry for people still invested. Looking at the chart this morning when it was $2.37 I see no reason to think that the long term downward trend will change anytime soon.

Aaron

20-06-2013, 01:17 PM

What was Craig's basis for a $2.29 valuation. Even PT had an 18cent dividend (I ignored the even worse case scenario.)
As TV's and computers start coming together most of the content might eventually come down the fibre and the network will be a near monopoly except in the big centres.
Almost certainly a good business (imo) but I guess the question of regulation and cost of construction are two very big factors that might make it expensive at these prices.

Disclaimer; hold(way more than I should) I guess time will tell. Should have listened to Phadreus though and waited for a turn in the price.

Billy Boy

20-06-2013, 02:25 PM

fundermentals look good, all I can see is market sentiment driving the share price down, just about time to hit the buy button
I,m with you on this one !!!
BB.... Watching

Muppett

20-06-2013, 02:33 PM

I,m with you on this one !!!
BB.... Watching

The time to buy is on 15 August when the CC announce their final UBA price. Watch the share price plummet.

***
Don't work for CNU
Hold a truck load of them. Wish I had sold at $3.70 ages ago.

Xerof

20-06-2013, 02:46 PM

Well, this is not advice, but the chart displays a well defined downtrend, with lower highs and lower lows.

i personally wouldn't enter until this trending changes direction

Snow Leopard

20-06-2013, 03:23 PM

In my view, this is getting insanely cheap now. Am contemplating accumulating even more.

The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain...

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

NZSilver

20-06-2013, 03:25 PM

Sitting on a 12.8% loss at the moment with an ave buy price of 2.71. This stock is getting a beating, entry point is difficult. I thought my buys at 260 ish and 275 ish were good, but timing the market - you know what they say. All you can do is buy more if the price drops and you invesment reason hasnt changed - long term CNU is a buy in my books. I have taken a risk regarding comcom, but i think it will be more in favour of CNU shareholders than the $8 mark.

futurist

20-06-2013, 03:30 PM

So why the big drop today?

Have you heard the announcement from the Feds?

I know people sort of dislike the discussion of macroeconomics because they feel the thread has to be micro-focused on CNU itself, but this is once again an event to show why such micro-focus may not be good enough to understand what is going on.

Not that an event like this determines the future of a company forever, but if you come here often you probably are not the type of people that can just leave the share you buy alone. Under that frame of reference, I stand by what I said earlier about the coming back of strong dollar which would affect all shares in the world. Brokers and speculators would be a lot more careful in their speculative-based investment activities. When there are too much money circulating around, people are less cautious about their decisions. Therefore this is exactly what a healthy economy needs right now, a return to rationality and correction.

If that is the trend coming, then I will think twice about putting money to CNU regardless if someone is saying how cheap they are. Cheap is relative to circumstances; in a tightening cycle of the monetary policies you cannot use the same judgement as when you are living in an expanding cycle.

P.S. Some people suggest the market is irrational; the market does not think at all so it is an irrational thought to think about the market in that way. The market only reflects actions, and even we cannot determine the thinking behind those actions we could check if they align with our own belief. For me, I check OGC as proxy of gold and FPH as proxy of USD; and right now they are pretty consistent with my belief since the beginning of this year.

Beagle

20-06-2013, 03:35 PM

Well, this is not advice, but the chart displays a well defined downtrend, with lower highs and lower lows.

i personally wouldn't enter until this trending changes direction

Wouldn't surprise me in the slightest to see this with with a sub $2 handle before too long. Fundamentals mean jack with a downtrend like this and so much regulatory uncertainty, especially against the backdrop of international uncertainty, tapering of QE and rising bond yields.
EDIT - completly agree with your post above Futurist.

bull....

20-06-2013, 03:55 PM

cnu very high correlation to the dow utilities index
dow utilities down 10% last month approx
cnu down 11% approx

futurist

20-06-2013, 04:02 PM

Wouldn't surprise me in the slightest to see this with with a sub $2 handle before too long. Fundamentals mean jack with a downtrend like this and so much regulatory uncertainty, especially against the backdrop of international uncertainty, tapering of QE and rising bond yields.
EDIT - completly agree with your post above Futurist.

Thank you! Certainly I don't get that often here.

I did say I admire some people here who follow the micro day-to-day occurrence of a company and then interpret how those changes could affect the company's share price. Personally I can never link them together to convince myself as a rational prediction so I pick something a lot simpler but works for me. I only care about monetary policies of some countries and R&D in companies I am interested in. The former determines how much money is available and the latter determines how much money a company could capture. I don't think this simple model works for everyone, but not a bad idea to include them in whatever model you are using right now.

Muppett

20-06-2013, 05:44 PM

Mista_Trix

21-06-2013, 09:57 AM

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10891997
Struggling at the front line.

Beagle

21-06-2013, 11:37 AM

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10891997
Struggling at the front line.
Doesn't look good. I was pondering the other day how many domestic users really want or need and are prepared to pay for high speed internet access ? If I can download a high definition movie of approx 1 GB of data in about 45 minutes, why do I need, (read why should I pay significantly more for) faster service than that ????
Perhaps Kiwi's generally are prepared to accept current speeds rather than pay more for higher speeds ?

Mista_Trix

21-06-2013, 11:43 AM

As I've mentioned I think legitimately streaming sports is going to help push this, especially if providers get behind it - like it appears TEL might.

I know its the nature of the media to over-report the bad and under-report the good, but there's been far more 'slow/horror/ignoring us' stories than there have been - 'the rollouts going well' stories.

21-06-2013, 11:47 AM

Doesn't look good. I was pondering the other day how many domestic users really want or need and are prepared to pay for high speed internet access ? It doesn't cost more. I looked at Telecoms plans and it is about the same as what I pay now. I may end up paying more if I need a larger data cap.

Look at the services provided in US and see if faster internet will help - iTunes, Hulu, skype, cloud storage/backup, etc

mcdongle

21-06-2013, 12:00 PM

For $10 more i can get an unlimited plan on high speed internet with 3 kids i am going for it.

Merc

21-06-2013, 12:19 PM

... If I can download a high definition movie of approx 1 GB of data in about 45 minutes, why do I need, (read why should I pay significantly more for) faster service than that ????
Perhaps Kiwi's generally are prepared to accept current speeds rather than pay more for higher speeds ?

Speak for yourself. You are using the speed that you are able to obtain as a benchmark for broadband and assume all others have the same access and speed - and that current levels of Internet use will be maintained rather than increased.

Here we have slow-ish Internet and count ourselves lucky we have it at all.

Data comes down the line like a stream of water through a hose. Once the hose tap is fully on you are at maximum capacity for that hose.

Currently you are able to download a 1GB movie in 45 minutes, but as soon as the neighbours start doing it too the speed will drop for all of you and that movie will take longer... and longer... and longer to download.

Today's "luxury capacity" will become tomorrow's "normal capacity"

How do I know this? Many years ago dial-up was good and workedso why would I be silly enough to pay for broadband? But we did. Due to issues with our 30 year old "lines to be upgraded by 2015 system" we recently had a <short!!>spell on close to dial up speeds. Internet totally unusable after 4pm.

Banksie

21-06-2013, 12:47 PM

Sell Chorus, says Deutsche Bank, as regulatory risk multiplies:

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/sell-chorus-says-deutsche-bank-regulatory-risk-multiplies-wb-141848 (http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/sell-chorus-says-deutsche-bank-regulatory-risk-multiplies-wb-141848)

Muppett

21-06-2013, 01:03 PM

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/ce6c1916/sell-chorus-says-deutsche-bank-as-regulatory-risk-multiplies.html

While it argues a case exists for greater government support in clearing up regulatory settings, allowing greater flexibility on the UFB rollout timetable to give Chorus opportunities to manage its costs better, and to push fibre up-take, Deutsche sees little likelihood of any such action occurring.
"We do not sense relief from the Crown on onerous contracts that could ease capex pressures or provide confidence in UFB take-up," the report says. "The government is progressing matters on the regulatory front but copper pricing could fall short and changes to the framework is subject to political risk over several years."

Accordingly, Deutsche has cut its dividend forecasts for Chorus for the 2015 financial year to 18 cents per share, down from 25.5 cents previously,

The report also laments the apparent lack of a bi-partisan political approach - ala MRP share float problems

$2.00 here we come............

Crow

21-06-2013, 01:14 PM

I read the sharechat link two seconds ago and at end of it thought d*mn. Glad I got out months ago. At the time I thought I'd made a mistake, but all the uncertainty did it for me. Feel sorry for holders.

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/ce6c1916/sell-chorus-says-deutsche-bank-as-regulatory-risk-multiplies.html

While it argues a case exists for greater government support in clearing up regulatory settings, allowing greater flexibility on the UFB rollout timetable to give Chorus opportunities to manage its costs better, and to push fibre up-take, Deutsche sees little likelihood of any such action occurring.
"We do not sense relief from the Crown on onerous contracts that could ease capex pressures or provide confidence in UFB take-up," the report says. "The government is progressing matters on the regulatory front but copper pricing could fall short and changes to the framework is subject to political risk over several years."

Accordingly, Deutsche has cut its dividend forecasts for Chorus for the 2015 financial year to 18 cents per share, down from 25.5 cents previously,

The report also laments the apparent lack of a bi-partisan political approach - ala MRP share float problems

$2.00 here we come............

21-06-2013, 01:27 PM

[/B][/U]Accordingly, Deutsche has cut its dividend forecasts for Chorus for the 2015 financial year to 18 cents per share, down from 25.5 cents previously,It looks like they just copied Craig's report issued a few days ago. Same language (from what I can tell in the article) and dividend forecast.

ananda77

21-06-2013, 01:54 PM

...these contributions mostly show the dopey/boozy attitude of Kiwis -just like the SLOW SLOW HORROR SHOW on NZ roads. Only Kiwis seem to have the time to wait FOREVER in front of their screens for downloads.
...and only KIWIS can be so afraid of COM-COM rulings , which in the end will prove totally useless and super ineffective
Move forward KIWIS wake up from your dopey/boozy dreams of WE ARE THE BEST / as a matter of fact, you will become totally irrelevant with NO CHANGE

Kind Regards and buying more THANK YOU

Banksie

21-06-2013, 02:20 PM

Muppett

21-06-2013, 02:24 PM

[QUOTE=SparkyTheClown;413243]Where Deutsche Bank is wrong is over the political risk.

I strongly believe the government will step in to fix the regulatory process because they do not want to go into the 2014 election with their telecommunications and fibre policy a complete failure.

***
When could one expect the government to "step-in and fix things" (if they do), a month, 2, 3 months, ??? after the CC decision on the 15 August?

What is a "normal" time-line for these sort of things? Any precedents?

futurist

21-06-2013, 03:03 PM

Not sure I agree Roger.

I think it will be transformational. We have only begun to scratch the surface of what can be done with fibre.

Yes, VDSL is very impressive, and may well be a valid stepping stone for some who don't get fibre for a while, but I'm pretty sure that in the next two years the migration to fibre will be big.

And the government may yet help that along with some policy changes to assist in that.

The blind spot here is that some people believe bandwidth is like money; it will subject to inflation over time and so we will always need more. "It will be transformational..." - well you need to transform your mind before you could appreciate that idea I guess.

Unlike money, there are technologies to counter our need for bandwidth. Sure, there are always growing demands for more in general; but when computing power grows in parallel we also open the doors to even better performance for those counter technologies. For example there are better ways to compress files, or distributed mechanisms to transport bits from point A to point B.

I agree we will increase our need to be always connected; but it is not as simple as to link that with an unquestionable growth of bandwidth consumption, particularly in this case associating with fibre. Even now people don't pay real attention towards something like Project Loon from Google, it represents a whole wave of alternative technologies coming not only from well established by smaller vendors as well to disrupt the status quo.

Muppett

21-06-2013, 03:06 PM

Deutsche Bank and Craig's are allied, so it probably is the same report

Allied to the tune of about 49% there-off.

21-06-2013, 03:27 PM

The blind spot here is that some people believe bandwidth is like money; it will subject to inflation over time and so we will always need more.Futurist - apt name given the topic but I disagree.

In my view, storage capacity and increases in bandwidth means that little time or money will be spent on compression etc. Just look at photos. Digital cameras use to be 1mp, now they are 12m. then camera phones were introduced and we went back to 0.5mp photos, but know they are back up to 12 with normal cameras up to 20mp and DSLR going into 39mb

TV has gone from SD to HD and next will be 4xHD (not sure what that is called).

Even music use to be shrunk to fit on your 256k mp3 player but now it will all be high quality given our phones are now 32Gb!

Technology will increase the size of the file, not decrease it, hence the the need for fibre.

andysh

21-06-2013, 04:08 PM

I also think that bandwidth will increase. I (think) I read somewhere that Netflix is now the largest user of bandwidth in USA. This sort of behaviour is just going to increase where computing goes to a cloud based approach, data on servers, and your TV / computer is just a receiver.

I wouldn't be surprised in a couple of year, where TV's you buy / subscribe to "apps" or channels as well as having access to a library of on demand content (Netflix). Just have to look at the EPL where they are going streamed based in NZ.

RedWizzard

21-06-2013, 04:46 PM

I was pondering the other day how many domestic users really want or need and are prepared to pay for high speed internet access ? If I can download a high definition movie of approx 1 GB of data in about 45 minutes, why do I need, (read why should I pay significantly more for) faster service than that ????

In a word: uploads. Most people can probably live with 20 or even 10 Mbps download speeds. 50 or 100 Mbps downloads are nice to have, but it's not critical. But 1 Mbps upload speed is crippling. There are so many things that you just can't do because of that limit. VoIP services (especially with video) are limited. Telecommuting is frustrating. It's pretty impractical to use online backup services. Even something as simple as emailing some photos to a friend becomes painfully slow. Consumer cameras are recording HD video and 25 megapixel images. At 1 Mbps that's a minute to upload a single photo. I have 70 GB of photos and video, it would take about 200 hours to upload that over ADSL.

People get used to what they have and they subconsciously discount the time they spend waiting for things. So it'll take a while for people to catch on, but they will. Personal media - photos and video - will be a big driver for this.

Beagle

21-06-2013, 05:22 PM

Okay folks I hear you that lots of you want higher speed but not everyone is tech savvy by any means and there was quite an interesting article in today's Herald about the very slow fibre uptake. "Slowly into the Future", sorry couldn't readily see it on the online version, maybe didn't have time to look properly, so havn't posted a link. Anyway they reckon the number of users able to connect to ultra fast broadband as at 31 March 2013 was 172,000 and the number who have is 5,130. How do people explain the ultra slow adoption rate ?

Merc

21-06-2013, 05:31 PM

How do people explain the ultra slow adoption rate ?

They are introducing it in places where people already have speeds higher than 0.68Mbps upload and 3.09Mbps download... ?

RedWizzard

21-06-2013, 06:33 PM

1. Telecom, who control 45% of the broadband market, only started selling in March
2. It has only been rolled out in some places, not all places
3. The current policy covers the first 15m of connection from the footpath. Who pays after that distance has become a political and corporate football

there may be other reasons but those three are useful to bear in mind
I think another big one is a general lack of information. People often don't know that it's available and they don't know what's involved in getting it. There's also such a focus on download speeds that I suspect some people have discounted it on the basis that they don't need faster downloads without realising how much difference the upload speed makes (incidentally I'm on 70/10 VDSL so I'm speaking from experience when I talk about how much better it is).

But word will spread. And most new developments will have fibre so that will help uptake. I know someone who just bought a house in Stonefields in Auckland and he's got fibre - I don't think copper was even an option.

futurist

21-06-2013, 07:07 PM

Futurist - apt name given the topic but I disagree.

In my view, storage capacity and increases in bandwidth means that little time or money will be spent on compression etc. Just look at photos. Digital cameras use to be 1mp, now they are 12m. then camera phones were introduced and we went back to 0.5mp photos, but know they are back up to 12 with normal cameras up to 20mp and DSLR going into 39mb

TV has gone from SD to HD and next will be 4xHD (not sure what that is called).

Even music use to be shrunk to fit on your 256k mp3 player but now it will all be high quality given our phones are now 32Gb!

Technology will increase the size of the file, not decrease it, hence the the need for fibre.

Thank you, this is a great demonstration of blind spot.

Let's use your example then. Without a doubt, higher megapixel-ed file would be larger than lower megapixel-ed file in terms of the number of bytes. For argument sake, I would even assume we are moving towards more pixels instead of less (but you should also check out the concept behind the mobile camera in HTC One).

A larger sized file occupies more storage space, sure. But my argument is that it does not necessarily occupy more bandwidth for transfer. For example, file compression is an old technology that could eliminate, in some cases, over 90% of the file size. You see, particularly in photo, even there are 12 megapixels not all of them have unique data. A lot of those megapixels could actually contain the same data, or data that could be derived from the neighbouring pixel. Obviously, file compression has its bottleneck, which is computing power. But as our computing devices are getting twice as powerful every 18 months (as Moore's Law implies), it allows more complex and effective file compression mechanism to be used with our devices without suffering performance downgrade. In sum, a 40MB sized file storing locally in your computer could be transmitted as a 4MB compressed file. BTW in a lot of cases (like email as someone points out), you would not even know the file has been compressed and decompressed at all.

There are also a lot of work could be done to improve the efficiency of the pipe without changing the pipe itself. Are you familiar with the internet? It is a fire and miss kind of communication network (unlike our phone for example), which means there are ways to improve the reliability and thus eliminate the amount of misses. Yes, TV and movies are commonly 1080i based nowadays and in a year or two they would move towards the 4K standard, perhaps. But even without using the file compression argument because that is more applicable to file transfer, streaming technology has improved so much over the years. At any single point of time, you acquire only a fixed amount of pixels on your screen, not the entire length of the show.

Look, there is always a simple way to perceive everything around us. I am not saying what you believe is wrong, but merely incomplete. When I hear people say "when was the last time you used ZIP" or "cloud computing needs faster broadband connection", that means people know less than they think but probably not willing to accept new knowledge. In that case, say no more and I will let you get on with your business.

futurist

21-06-2013, 07:24 PM

In a word: uploads. Most people can probably live with 20 or even 10 Mbps download speeds. 50 or 100 Mbps downloads are nice to have, but it's not critical. But 1 Mbps upload speed is crippling. There are so many things that you just can't do because of that limit. VoIP services (especially with video) are limited. Telecommuting is frustrating. It's pretty impractical to use online backup services. Even something as simple as emailing some photos to a friend becomes painfully slow. Consumer cameras are recording HD video and 25 megapixel images. At 1 Mbps that's a minute to upload a single photo. I have 70 GB of photos and video, it would take about 200 hours to upload that over ADSL.

People get used to what they have and they subconsciously discount the time they spend waiting for things. So it'll take a while for people to catch on, but they will. Personal media - photos and video - will be a big driver for this.

Sorry, it is another blind spot right there so I couldn't help it. I promise to be brief.

Yes, it takes forever to upload hundreds of GB of files; and under that premise sure we should all want faster internet to solve that problem, shouldn't we? Well it turns out, many users have their photos or videos uploaded instantly right after they take them, because a majority of them come from mobile devices these days. Some cameras have built-in online capability as well.

Obviously, I am not suggesting that we are not moving towards faster broadband. I am sure we are. But comparing to the cost of upgrading the infrastructure, there are still many ways of improving our end user experience of the speed of internet. Many software developers are working very hard to redevelop our browser and the application running in our mobile. If one works in that field, one would know how much wasted bandwidth is spent on bad code. In other words, our user experience of fibre could still suck if software is not optimised.

hilskin

21-06-2013, 07:38 PM

Thank you, this is a great demonstration of blind spot.

Let's use your example then. Without a doubt, higher megapixel-ed file would be larger than lower megapixel-ed file in terms of the number of bytes. For argument sake, I would even assume we are moving towards more pixels instead of less (but you should also check out the concept behind the mobile camera in HTC One).

A larger sized file occupies more storage space, sure. But my argument is that it does not necessarily occupy more bandwidth for transfer. For example, file compression is an old technology that could eliminate, in some cases, over 90% of the file size. You see, particularly in photo, even there are 12 megapixels not all of them have unique data. A lot of those megapixels could actually contain the same data, or data that could be derived from the neighbouring pixel. Obviously, file compression has its bottleneck, which is computing power. But as our computing devices are getting twice as powerful every 18 months (as Moore's Law implies), it allows more complex and effective file compression mechanism to be used with our devices without suffering performance downgrade. In sum, a 40MB sized file storing locally in your computer could be transmitted as a 4MB compressed file. BTW in a lot of cases (like email as someone points out), you would not even know the file has been compressed and decompressed at all.

There are also a lot of work could be done to improve the efficiency of the pipe without changing the pipe itself. Are you familiar with the internet? It is a fire and miss kind of communication network (unlike our phone for example), which means there are ways to improve the reliability and thus eliminate the amount of misses. Yes, TV and movies are commonly 1080i based nowadays and in a year or two they would move towards the 4K standard, perhaps. But even without using the file compression argument because that is more applicable to file transfer, streaming technology has improved so much over the years. At any single point of time, you acquire only a fixed amount of pixels on your screen, not the entire length of the show.

Are you saying that we don't need UFB, we just need ultra fast computers with lots of computer power?
When do you think they will be able to make these computers so they are small enough and cheap enough for a family on a average wage?
Your argument against UFB seems to based on these technologies coming through so I assume that you are thinking that this is not too far away.

21-06-2013, 09:18 PM

janner

21-06-2013, 09:26 PM

CJ.. You know it is not a guess.. Man-kinds total knowledge doubles .. Every Seven years..

Bring it on !!!..

Futurist - file types with better compression than JPEG have been around a while, but they have not been adopted, in part because storage is cheap.

My guess is than in 2, 5, 10 years time, we will be using more and more data

futurist

21-06-2013, 09:45 PM

Are you saying that we don't need UFB, we just need ultra fast computers with lots of computer power?
When do you think they will be able to make these computers so they are small enough and cheap enough for a family on a average wage?
Your argument against UFB seems to based on these technologies coming through so I assume that you are thinking that this is not too far away.

I am not saying we don't need UFB or not moving towards that; merely not the reasons in the minds of many and hence it may not happen the way predicted by those minds. Have you heard of the Moore's Law? Well it is not really a law but the 2nd part of that specifically says while the computing power doubles, the cost of it halves. Obviously my argument does not rest entirely on that simple idea, but it is better to build on top of an existing idea instead of just speaking from the guts, or in some cases personal feelings.

There are computers as small and as cheap as a Raspberry Pi (okay again I am generalising in here, there are heaps of competition of cheap credit card size computing devices against the Pi but I assume people tend to at least know what a Raspberry Pi but not others). Of course, $50 could still be too expensive, and we do have computers as small as a cell right now but to you they could be still too big. So I guess the answer is, we will never have computers that are small enough or cheap enough, which practically makes the question pointless. If size is not an issue, then network computing could be extremely cheap by combining junk together. But of course you need knowledge, not money, to know how to benefit from the parallel processing. If a nuclear missile could be calibrated and launched by combining playstation consoles together, I am sure we could do something less demanding with very cheap hardware. People could learn about all these things without going to fancy university, in fact it is because they don't go to university they could have a chance to learn these.

Anyway I am not against UFB at all. In fact, when there are 50% of our population on UFB let's say on the 30Mb/s plan, then it actually lessen the load of the existing ADSL 2+ infrastructure. For now I get a 20Mb/s download but the ISP has to prioritise the traffic to sort of police usage; but if people move to UFB then there are higher chance I get more bandwidth :)

futurist

21-06-2013, 10:00 PM

Futurist - file types with better compression than JPEG have been around a while, but they have not been adopted, in part because storage is cheap.

My guess is than in 2, 5, 10 years time, we will be using more and more data

Certainly, and absolutely, I am not only talking about JPEG. File compression could be used for everything, it is only a matter of whether you know about it or not. Whether a standard is adopted or not has nothing to do with the pricing of storage ... but let's not continue to create a larger gap here. What about a simple analogy ... imagine whatever you do on your end on whatever devices, all the files you send out could be automatically compressed, and decompressed at the other end? Now imagine all ISPs are doing that already, and further imagine that many applications running in your computer are also doing that automatically. Could you accept that this file compression technology could get better over time when computing power increases? I am not saying it will be so good that it eliminates the need for more bandwidth altogether, but are you so sure that this is not helpful at all?

When I was in school, I learnt how to write my own file compression algorithm. I could get things compressed really well up to 80% with not much code. But for advancing even 1% from that point onwards, it requires more power exponentially which to a point it is not worthwhile at all.

And yes, it sounds perfectly sane by guessing in XXX years time we will be using more data. I am with you. But the question remains, is more data = we need faster broadband = CNU is a gold mine?

futurist

21-06-2013, 10:14 PM

CJ.. You know it is not a guess.. Man-kinds total knowledge doubles .. Every Seven years..

Bring it on !!!..

I don't know where you get your statistics, but if you look at some recent research it is generally accepted that 90% of the total information in mankind since the beginning are created in the last 2 years. I won't call them knowledge though.

So yes we create a lot of data and we need the internet as the medium for both storage and transfer. No one is debating about the growing importance of the internet or connectivity here. But while I agree on that, it doesn't automatically mean a larger pipe as the only answer. If engineering is the solution here, it will always be a temporary one because like human desire we never get enough. Combining with that, I think software implementation is even more important because that dictates how efficient the available bandwidth is used for every application on every device.

If you look at the change from HTML 4 to HTML 5, you will get the idea too. This is of course just one out of a million examples of what is going on. However, it shows how the mindset has changed among software developers.

At the end of the day, wise, dumb or dumber, people are using software on their hardware on top of the pipe. Getting a fat pipe and top notch hardware do not make things better if the code is not well written.

futurist

22-06-2013, 11:20 AM

From the NBR half year in review:

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/hot-stocks-mid-year-review-weekend-review-dw-141845

If CNU is a product of regulatory decision itself, surely it will always subject to that. It is almost like saying the reason why MSFT is not performing well for the last decade is because of the antitrust lawsuit risks. Yes, financial experts actually use that as a reason. But the simple truth is because MSFT has no innovation during the long period when we were stuck with Windows XP and IE6.

Again, the market reflects actions: we see less registers from overseas. But there are many possible reasons, which regulatory risk could be one but a fairly obvious one that is built-in to the nature of the company. For instance, if tomorrow a new policy is made to force 20% of the population to change to fibre with a subsidy, people could be rushing in to buy CNU but that does not mean the regulatory risk is gone, is it? I think we deserve better analysis than that.

futurist

24-06-2013, 01:30 PM

All I know is CNU is in the business of supplying data instalation and line works.
The whole world is addicted to tech and data and have been for some time.
Cant see this changing anytime soon therefore CNU is currently a buy and I have just purchased my first bundle and wont hesitate to buy more if the price goes south.
I

This is good, healthy actually, that you have framed what you know and act accordingly. To you I am sure whatever happens to the share price now they do not align with your knowledge about this company, or to some extend other people are not sharing the same kind of knowledge as you have, or they are not acting according to their minds. Yes the whole world is addicted to many things, like before the dot com collapse they were addicted to tech companies; or before the financial crisis they were addicted to financial companies. You are so spot on, particularly the part about "have been for some time" which means this is perhaps another great timing.

The good news for you is, I don't see you will stop buying CNU in the near and medium terms if you walk the talk so to speak. In fact if fund is not an issue I believe you will end up owning a large part of the company. Moreover, the dividend yield just looks better each day when the share price moves from $3.4 to $2.4 in the last 6 months!

bung5

24-06-2013, 02:12 PM

Sell Chorus, says Deutsche Bank, as regulatory risk multiplies

Mista_Trix

24-06-2013, 02:54 PM

Sell Chorus, says Deutsche Bank, as regulatory risk multiplies

Few days late there with that one :-S

keepitsimple

24-06-2013, 03:26 PM

All else aside if a large part of this company is held off shore bought with us currency ,then
with nz currency dropping and share price dropping it would be wise to jump out and wait.Share price and currency may bottom out together and they will come piling back in.

RedWizzard

24-06-2013, 05:22 PM

Well it turns out, many users have their photos or videos uploaded instantly right after they take them, because a majority of them come from mobile devices these days. Some cameras have built-in online capability as well.
That doesn't just magically happen. It's either via Wi-Fi into a fixed line connection or via a mobile network. But 3G at least is hardly better than ADSL: right now I am getting 2.36 Mbps upload on my phone. So a 30 second video off my camera would take 10 minutes to upload. Yes people automatically upload photos and videos taken with their phones, but that is not the sort of activity I am talking about.

Obviously, I am not suggesting that we are not moving towards faster broadband. I am sure we are. But comparing to the cost of upgrading the infrastructure, there are still many ways of improving our end user experience of the speed of internet. Many software developers are working very hard to redevelop our browser and the application running in our mobile. If one works in that field, one would know how much wasted bandwidth is spent on bad code. In other words, our user experience of fibre could still suck if software is not optimised.
Actually I do work in that field and I think you have a unrealistically rosy idea of both how easy it is to make the sorts of software improvements you're talking about and how far they can be taken. Compression technology is not merely limited by computing power. It is fundamentally limited by how much non-redundant information there is in the source and how much you are willing to throw away (in the case of lossy compression algorithms like jpeg, mpeg, and mp3). Your example of easily achieving 80% compression but then finding each subsequent 1% needed exponentially more computing power is accurate but misleading: it implies that enough power would get you 99% compression, but that is not the case.

futurist

24-06-2013, 09:35 PM

That doesn't just magically happen. It's either via Wi-Fi into a fixed line connection or via a mobile network. But 3G at least is hardly better than ADSL: right now I am getting 2.36 Mbps upload on my phone. So a 30 second video off my camera would take 10 minutes to upload. Yes people automatically upload photos and videos taken with their phones, but that is not the sort of activity I am talking about.

Actually I do work in that field and I think you have a unrealistically rosy idea of both how easy it is to make the sorts of software improvements you're talking about and how far they can be taken. Compression technology is not merely limited by computing power. It is fundamentally limited by how much non-redundant information there is in the source and how much you are willing to throw away (in the case of lossy compression algorithms like jpeg, mpeg, and mp3). Your example of easily achieving 80% compression but then finding each subsequent 1% needed exponentially more computing power is accurate but misleading: it implies that enough power would get you 99% compression, but that is not the case.

Well I don't know how long you will still work in the field you claim to be in but judging from your answers I do wish you all the best because you may just need it.

You see, all kinds of networks (i.e. traffic, communication, broadcast etc) are never built to support 100% utilisation because quite frankly that is simply not efficient. You can argue all you want, but the truth is, when photo upload is done in chunks instead of a big batches, that improves the traffic so to speak. Just like the real traffic on a real highway. The pipe is not magical, nor its usage is always the same at the peak level. No matter which field you work in, some common sense should apply across domains, don't you think? So my argument was, if you bother to read in the first place, talking about the difference it made when our user habit changed.

Besides, are you saying that you do work for Opera or FireFox or Chrome or something equivalent, so that you know for sure that nothing more we could do from the software side to improve the situation? How come your opinion then is different from the list of organisations I just mention? Okay let's say you work as a game developer, then at least you should be honest there are both good and bad ways to have games running with an internet connection on either mobile devices or computers. How can you simply say that's never an issue and we just need a larger pipe? I simply cannot believe you actually work in the field of software when you actually do not respect software. Oh yeah, comparatively I do think software is more magical than the hardware.

I never imply having enough power you will always get maximum compression, but currently we do have better power among devices or machines to go for higher ratio of compression comparing to 5 years ago. How is that both accurate and misleading? It is misleading to you when you have bias of what I try to say, and funny enough you still cannot dispute what I say so you need to say the statement itself is accurate but my mind is not. I have talked about compression and I also mention about the mechanism of how it works. While you say not all files can be compressed to higher ratio, I could also say not all files could not do so. My point is not about what kind of files dominate the world, but the simple truth that we still haven't even considered compression as a way to minimize the traffic when all we hear is larger pipe. BTW, compression is just one out of a dozen possible solutions besides from infrastructural change.

P.S. No one should claim to work in the software field if they keep seeing the limit of it and only wish to have fancier hardware and infrastructure. Software developers, the real ones, they refactor and optimise their code so that it maximizes the utility of existing physical objects. Bad code comes from bad attitude, and they are cancers of the industry.

RedWizzard

24-06-2013, 10:28 PM

You see, all kinds of networks (i.e. traffic, communication, broadcast etc) are never built to support 100% utilisation because quite frankly that is simply not efficient. You can argue all you want, but the truth is, when photo upload is done in chunks instead of a big batches, that improves the traffic so to speak.

Overall network efficiency is relevant to UFB uptake. I have X GB of media. With ADSL I cannot practically upload this to the "cloud". With fibre or VDSL I can. You can claim this will not be a driver for UFB uptake all you like. I can tell you from personal experience that it is.

Besides, are you saying that you do work for Opera or FireFox or Chrome or something equivalent, so that you know for sure that nothing more we could do from the software side to improve the situation?

Compression technology is of little value unless it is standardised. The work is not going on in the browsers, it's going on in standards working groups. I never said improvements couldn't be made. But if you think improvements to compression algorithms will be equivalent to a 10x increase in upload bandwidth then you are naive or delusional or both.

How come your opinion then is different from the list of organisations I just mention?

FireFox is open source. Point me to the Bugzilla entry where they are working on improved compression.

How can you simply say that's never an issue and we just need a larger pipe? I simply cannot believe you actually work in the field of software when you actually do not respect software. Oh yeah, comparatively I do think software is more magical than the hardware.

I never said we just need a larger pipe. I do however say we absolutely do need a larger pipe. It doesn't matter how good your compression is or how clever your code is there are absolute minimum bandwidth requirements for transmitting data. It is important to note that improvements to software are largely out of our hands - no compression algorithm is useful unless it is supported at both the source and the destination. What use is a new compression algorithm if YouTube still requires you to upload files in mpeg4 format? Network infrastructure OTOH provides immediate benefit to all users and does not require cooperation from the other end.

I never imply having enough power you will always get maximum compression, but currently we do have better power among devices or machines to go for higher ratio of compression comparing to 5 years ago. How is that both accurate and misleading?

It is accurate that increased computing power enables the use of algorithms that have higher compression ratios. It is misleading to imply that the relationship is linear or unbounded. There is an absolute limit to the amount of compression that can be achieved for a given domain of source data. See Shannon's source coding theorem.

P.S. No one should claim to work in the software field if they keep seeing the limit of it and only wish to have fancier hardware and infrastructure. Software developers, the real ones, they refactor and optimise their code so that it maximizes the utility of existing physical objects. Bad code comes from bad attitude, and they are cancers of the industry.
[/QUOTE]
I have a masters degree in computing and mathematical sciences. I have worked in the industry for 15 years. You speak like someone who is self taught, has a incomplete understanding of what they are talking about, and does not have a strong understanding of information theory. You have an incredibly unrealistic idea of what software development in the real world is like.

fish

24-06-2013, 10:39 PM

All I know is CNU is in the business of supplying data instalation and line works.
The whole world is addicted to tech and data and have been for some time.
Cant see this changing anytime soon therefore CNU is currently a buy and I have just purchased my first bundle and wont hesitate to buy more if the price goes south.
I

I too am accumulating . The future clearly lies in fibreoptic broadband . Anything else will be frustration or deprivation .
Who wants to sit like a muppet watching sky tv when over broadband we can have live streaming of rugby ,or whatever you want when you want-pay accordingly but no monthly sky rental-perhaps use free to air for news etc but then broadband for self-selected viewing from thousands of torrents or magazines/tv series etc .
Skype will be so much better-less travelling to work-and work colleagues/clients may interface through broadband-i can see myself running 3 computers simultaneously when i get superfast broadband-i cant see mobile ever being able to compete with this

hilskin

24-06-2013, 10:58 PM

Well I don't know how long you will still work in the field you claim to be in but judging from your answers I do wish you all the best because you may just need it.

You see, all kinds of networks (i.e. traffic, communication, broadcast etc) are never built to support 100% utilisation because quite frankly that is simply not efficient. You can argue all you want, but the truth is, when photo upload is done in chunks instead of a big batches, that improves the traffic so to speak. Just like the real traffic on a real highway. The pipe is not magical, nor its usage is always the same at the peak level. No matter which field you work in, some common sense should apply across domains, don't you think? So my argument was, if you bother to read in the first place, talking about the difference it made when our user habit changed.

Besides, are you saying that you do work for Opera or FireFox or Chrome or something equivalent, so that you know for sure that nothing more we could do from the software side to improve the situation? How come your opinion then is different from the list of organisations I just mention? Okay let's say you work as a game developer, then at least you should be honest there are both good and bad ways to have games running with an internet connection on either mobile devices or computers. How can you simply say that's never an issue and we just need a larger pipe? I simply cannot believe you actually work in the field of software when you actually do not respect software. Oh yeah, comparatively I do think software is more magical than the hardware.

I never imply having enough power you will always get maximum compression, but currently we do have better power among devices or machines to go for higher ratio of compression comparing to 5 years ago. How is that both accurate and misleading? It is misleading to you when you have bias of what I try to say, and funny enough you still cannot dispute what I say so you need to say the statement itself is accurate but my mind is not. I have talked about compression and I also mention about the mechanism of how it works. While you say not all files can be compressed to higher ratio, I could also say not all files could not do so. My point is not about what kind of files dominate the world, but the simple truth that we still haven't even considered compression as a way to minimize the traffic when all we hear is larger pipe. BTW, compression is just one out of a dozen possible solutions besides from infrastructural change.

P.S. No one should claim to work in the software field if they keep seeing the limit of it and only wish to have fancier hardware and infrastructure. Software developers, the real ones, they refactor and optimise their code so that it maximizes the utility of existing physical objects. Bad code comes from bad attitude, and they are cancers of the industry.

Always happy to read your comments futurist as it makes me think about the subject a bit deeper than I probably would normally want to but you talk a lot about possible solutions which could be years and years away. Are you saying all the government's of this world should stop spending huge amounts money on fibre and wait for software writers to come up with the answers. Sounds like a big gamble to me. Not saying that it is not possible because what would I know but surely the government's of this world have spoken to the experts and this is the best option going forward with what we have today. Can you tell me that with everything you are mentioning we can all watch a hd streamed video or streamed hd live tv within 2-3 years. Businesses/schools are using it today and i'd hate to be the one to tell them we are taking it away while we wait for computer experts to come up with another solution to ufb.
Don't forget, whoever designs this new software will want to be paid handsomely. I personally believe that it will take a while but ufb will be what broadband was to dialup. Good things take time and your software solutions can compliment it.
Instead of replying with a long winded rebuttal can you go straight to a real solution, by real solution I mean something that will most probably be available to the masses within a year or two.
P.s not trying to have a go at you just trying to make sense of this computer/software talk.

Snow Leopard

24-06-2013, 11:32 PM

So a new all-time closing low of $2.34 on about as low volume as you see with Chorus.

At some point it will bottom out, but whilst it descends then I am not interested in buying.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

pennies

24-06-2013, 11:40 PM

The need for this infrastructure is not about the somewhat neanderthal issue of the uploading/downloading of "files" for passive one way consumption. Its creation is just another step in servicing humans' insatiable need to communicate.... regardless of physical obstacle. Distance, space and time is gradually becoming irrelevant. Ultimately one's physical presence will not be required and, in certain circumstances, might be regarded as a quaint, if not barbaric, idea. I don't doubt the difference between a physical presence and a holographic presence will always be detectable.... but only just.

biker

25-06-2013, 09:15 AM

I blocked futurist some time ago because of a history of his pathetic snarky know it all comments. I see from other people's responses this hasn't changed.

It is a shame this thread is quickly descending into an esoteric technology argument about software compression and who is a better software coder instead of a discussion on CNU. There are other websites that can accomodate technology p@ssing contests or conflicts between the People's Judean Front and the People's Front for Judea.

Couldn't agree more SPC. Well said. I'm happy to read all arguments but can do without the 'smarter than thou' snide remarks.
Yes, let's PLEASE keep this to discussion on CNU.

I haven't changed my view that there is value here, especially at these levels. So far nothing has really changed with the stock itself, just Broker, offshore investor and institutional herd mentality, which of course makes the market. And provides the opportunities.
Batter up!

toucan22

25-06-2013, 11:22 AM

Something else to consider:

The first four of 12 satellites in a new constellation to provide affordable, high-speed Internet to people in nearly 180 "under-connected" countries, will be shot into space on Tuesday, the project's developers said.

Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2013-06-satellites-fast-cheap-internet-under-connected.html#jCp

Mista_Trix

25-06-2013, 11:26 AM

Given how many issues I have with wifi on a cloudy day, I'm really hesitant about this technology.

I know at face value it looks awesome, but the maintenance of satellites and the cost of dishes at the other end required to receive the information make me wonder. Chances are the receiving dish will be a central hub around which everything connects to it via fiber, its more about enabling access in remote areas.

futurist

25-06-2013, 11:27 AM

Okay let me try my best to reply you all.

To RedWizzard:

I never say compression is the only way to go, nor I am in a position to think UFB is not needed. I have repeatedly mentioned that in all my posts. I believe it is a normal thing to ask for - dial up > broadband > UFB then whatever comes after that. It is human nature to frame our problem as engineering issues and so we go and build some new things to replace the old ones. Could we at least agree that we both share this view?

So, the only point I try to make, despite how it turns out, is that in many technological advancement it is often the software that overcomes some bottleneck (or traditional thinking) that brings new meaning to things that have already existed, or things that are about to appear. Compression, or browser efficiency, or quality of codes are examples I use to illustrate that point. You cannot deny that given the same infrastructure/pipe, a better compression or a faster JavaScript engine in the browser or practically better code which does not do like 30 round trips before showing up a webpage, do make a lot of difference in terms of user experience of speed and the actual amount of data involved, can you? Am I logically flawed to suggest that software could overcome some of the engineering issue? Or are you so naive to believe we have done everything possible at the software level so all we left is the hardware? I don't think you are claiming that.

Let's say, and I hope you would agree, that both software and hardware must be part of the solution to move forward. This doesn't violate my position since I always believe we need UFB at some point anyway. Then this explains why my comment exists: too many people think too much about the infrastructure but nothing else. Without your opposition that would be it; but with your opposition people may even think software is unnecessary in this discussion at all. Could you confirm you are saying that?

Lastly, and not meant to upset you, I do have a higher qualification than a Master and I didn't start that like 2 decades ago. And quite honestly that doesn't matter at all if you are self taught and you could actually point out that Opera, FireFox and Chrome are all open source instead of just one of them. Why would anyone discuss a closed source software when nobody knows the code: isn't that just absurd if we are discussing between good and bad code? Clearly you have passion on this topic, but are you 100% sure that your 15 years of experience only brings you good and solid ideas, but not holding you back from newness?

My position is simple: I think UFB is important but it could be viewed as more important than it really is for this current moment. There could be alternatives, some radical ones as well, which may challenge the pure engineering mindset. I believe it is healthy to have balanced view. So CNU is a monopoly in a 4 millions population, it is a product of regulatory decision, and its share price drops more than 30% since the beginning of this year. When everybody says CNU is going to have a bright future because UFB is so important, I merely provide a different perspective, without discredit the idea that UFB is important.

To hilskin:

Thanks. I am not suggesting the government or anyone to halt the UFB, no that is not what I am saying in here. Real solution, one thing comes to my mind is the way streaming has improved via a decentralized distribution mechanism rather than a centralized one. It is technically possible for, let's say Sky users, to watch the most popular show in a faster speed because other people are also watching it or have a cache of it in their boxes. Oh a side note here, you could try the new software from BitTorrent Labs called Sync. That uses the same mechanism as BitTorrent to sync your files among devices within your LAN. This is also we don't talk about much, the bandwidth within a LAN. Research shows that a lot of the slowness that users perceive from their internet connection is actually bottlenecked by their own LAN. Anyway let me repeat, I am not saying we don't need UFB; but while we don't have it yet there are still plenty we could do to improve the situation.

To SparkyTheClown:

Well if you don't change yourself, why would you expect others to? I agree, that comment of yours is just pathetic. What the forum stands for is not up to you to say, simply because it exists before you join and hopefully it will continue to exist after you are gone. Everybody is influenced and influencing the forum of what is it with every single post. That's actually how the internet is built up and also many great things as well. Putting a gate, like what you did, is the old fashion way of saying you know it all too. So again, pathetic right?

Mothman

25-06-2013, 11:37 AM

So Mr. Futurist PHD where did you get your qualification? If it wasnt a top 10 US university go home.

Mista_Trix

25-06-2013, 11:43 AM

I might follow spark and block him.

Futurist, I totally agree with most of your points (not necessarily the way you frame them), but I think you're thinking in a 'perfect world' solution. I work in elearning design, we work in the cloud, and upload and download tens and tens of gigs each day. Each raw Photoshop file we use is 100-200megs each, because of version control and risk reduction, you'll save maybe 4-5 copies of the same thing each day as you work, and upload these to the cloud as you go.

We would love to use file compression when we interface with clients, but the reality is that all of your government departments, and most of the large corporates have systems that don't accept files other than *.jpegs due to what else can be hidden in other types, and the onerous nature of security scanning if they tried to protect against all file types. So hence we're stuck using a filetype where the compression isnt very good, and working in document types that aren't very efficient and bloat our bandwidth because most business systems wont accept anything else.

Agree with 'in a perfect world files would be smaller' disagree that this is actually implementable, as companies are numpties whose individual policies often work against the good of the overall group and ultimately ... themselves.

BIRMANBOY

25-06-2013, 12:24 PM

Shame a PHD doesnt guarantee accurate spelling...:bored: As someone who has been guilty of "defending premeditated position posting" this is all a big waste of time. Back to making money guys and who cares what qualifications any of you have.
Whilst I am also interested in what Futurist's qualifications are, I don't think a piece of paper is the only thing we should be judging the merits of ones opinions on. Also, to dismiss anyone that doesnt have their PhD from a "top 10 US univeristy" is ridiculas.
Disc: My PhD is from Victoria Univseristy and proud to say so.

Jay

25-06-2013, 12:51 PM

So anyway I see CNU is stiil the same price as at time of writing after about 143K of shares going thru - maybe stablising at these levels

Don't need a qualification to see that:)

RTM

25-06-2013, 01:32 PM

I've not got any Chorus but intending to get some.... hopefully soon. The SP at the moment seems pretty attractive, although will probably sit on my hands for bit longer.

The debate on this thread has been pretty useful in considering various aspects of the business, and I would not have been able to do so without this discussion, so thanks to you all.

Futurist
Unfortunately your wording does rub folk up the wrong way....I wonder if you could get your points across without annoying/attacking people so much. I do appreciate the perspective you bring, even if I do not believe it is all achievable.

I wonder if English is not your first language at times ?

STC
Also appreciate your input as well.

Important that we continue to be able to express ourselves here.

Cheers
RTM

Beagle

25-06-2013, 03:34 PM

glasszon

25-06-2013, 03:35 PM

It is still falling, glad I am out of CNU already.

Aaron

25-06-2013, 08:53 PM

Yeh Vince don't be a pussy, expose the ramper(s), It might stop others in the future.

biker

25-06-2013, 09:11 PM

I can happily state I am not, nor ever have been an employee of Chorus or Telecom.

I say this not for Vince's benefit (who knows I am not from my IP address), but for others, given I am someone who has been enthusiastic about CNU's shares given their recent drop. :-)

Likewise, so who is he on about?

BIRMANBOY

25-06-2013, 09:19 PM

Singing in it...not working in it. Tra.la lala, tralalla la oh bother the birds in the spring.... (or should I say the moles in our midst.)

NZSilver

25-06-2013, 09:25 PM

Well I often drive past Chorus vans in the countryside where Chorus employees are digging up cables - that is as close as I get. I would be interested to know who is posting.

Disc: Drive past Chorus workers digging holes.

BIRMANBOY

25-06-2013, 09:32 PM

Yeh right we know what you Canadians get up to ok..I am a lumberjack and I'm ok

I'm a lumberjack and I'm okay I sleep all night and I work all day
He's a lumberjack and he's okay He sleeps all night and he works all day
I cut down trees, I eat my lunch I go to the lavatory On Wednesdays I go shopping And have buttered scones for tea
He cuts down trees, he eats his lunch He goes to the lavatory On Wednesdays he goes shopping And has buttered scones for tea
I'm a lumberjack and I'm okay (He's a lumberjack and he's okay) I sleep all night and I work all day (He sleeps all night and he works all day)
I cut down trees, I skip and jump I like to press wildflowers I put on women's clothing And hang around in bars [ From: http://www.metrolyrics.com/lumberjack-song-lyrics-monty-python.html ]
He cuts down trees, he skips and jumps He likes to press wildflowers He puts on women's clothing And hangs around in bars?
I'm a lumberjack and I'm okay (He's a lumberjack and he's okay) I sleep all night and I work all day (He sleeps all night and he works all day)
I cut down trees, I wear high heels Suspenders and a bra I wish I'd been a girlie Just like my dear papa
He cuts down trees, he wears high heels Suspenders and a bra?
He's a lumberjack and he's okay He sleeps all night and he works all day
He's a lumberjack and he's okay He sleeps all night and he works all day

Read more: MONTY PYTHON - LUMBERJACK SONG LYRICS (http://www.metrolyrics.com/lumberjack-song-lyrics-monty-python.html#ixzz2XDdCp4eJ)

cheers for letting us know some on here are less than truthful vince. think we can see who these people are based on their posts

disc - I am but a simple canadian that works with old things!

hilskin

25-06-2013, 11:04 PM

Certainly not me but I had a look at posting prior to announcement and futurist appears to be a suspect also, surely not.

Snow Leopard

25-06-2013, 11:19 PM

Down again and somewhat precipitously!

Of course if the $8.93 UBA price sticks this still well overvalued.
But a UBA around $12.80 would support this SP.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

26-06-2013, 07:29 AM

Haha, I went back and looked at the people who posted before each of Vince's two warnings, I am afraid to say I am on the list of suspects.but you don't deny it? Your a student aren't you?

For clarity, I don't work for Chorus

glasszon

26-06-2013, 09:18 AM

I have nothing to do with CNU either beside losing some money on their shares and using a landline.

Joshuatree

26-06-2013, 09:33 AM

Me neither but i know a guy who used to sit inside their little roadside work tents and play cards all day with his mates re 33years ago as well as help themselves to stores. Employees just loved working for the old chorus/telecom.

BIRMANBOY

26-06-2013, 10:08 AM

Ah ..yes the good old days...when you werent "one of the boys" if you didnt rip off your employer along with the rest of the f***wits.
Me neither but i know a guy who used to sit inside their little roadside work tents and play cards all day with his mates re 33years ago as well as help themselves to stores. Employees just loved working for the old chorus/telecom.

Mista_Trix

26-06-2013, 10:29 AM

Ah ..yes the good old days...when you werent "one of the boys" if you didnt rip off your employer along with the rest of the f***wits.

What do you mean 'the good old days' ... all of government springs to mind ;)

futurist

26-06-2013, 10:47 AM

For what it's worth, we did discuss the topic a bit deeper than most of us would expect, didn't we?

I want to start my reply from moosie_900's quote: "I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it." Yes, this is the foundation of a modern society when strangers could have conversations to express their opinions instead of killing each other. The only reason that quote is given in this thread is because there is a stir-up by some selected individuals who like to judge the cover of a book so to speak. I remember a few months ago I was in the position of moosie_900 when I witnessed those individuals ganging up on another member in this forum because they didn't like that member. Those individuals never apologize; they feel it is their rights to decide who has the rights to speak in here or who should be blocked.

Let's go one step further. Whether you like the cover or the content of the book I am offering here, it is an under-discussed perspective which is not totally irrelevant to UFB or CNU. Through my posts, obviously we see some individuals coming with opposing views (e.g. RedWizzard and Mista_Trix) which by all means I expect it to happen. But then we also have belgaron joining with a supporting view too. Shouldn't all of us be glad that this discussion is not one-sided but at least two? Just imagine if 100% of the people here agree totally on one side, then what is the point of discussing anything?

On top of this, which is something I didn't expect, my posts actually in a way help to reveal something pretty ugly here. As confirmed by the admin, there are at least two posts coming from or two persons working for CNU joining our conversations without declaring their positions. Obviously, I am not suggesting that they do not have the rights to express opinions here, because unlike those selected individuals who like to gang up on people I mentioned earlier, I am not one of them. However, working in CNU does create a conflict of interest with their opinions, and hence it is only fair if they declare that. So at least now I could understand better among all those attacks on me, some of them could be hidden CNU employees wanting me to shut up because I am not helping them to improve the perceived value of their shares. They either suggest I should be blocked, or I should go home. Well now I know why, and you do too.

RTM suggests that I might have rubbed folks up the wrong way; but wouldn't you agree that if I rub the way you expect then we would not witness any of these? I say I have rubbed the right way, so now we see more than before.

Some people are pretty quick in declaring them not being the hidden CNU employee here. I think for all those who have attacked against my posts, you should at least declare that too. If you don't, then I guess we know who you are, and how unfair your attack is, and truly you owe all of us an apology!

Lastly, I have to thank the admin for stepping in and making this known to all of us. At least for me, I feel a lot more relieved that people are not really that stubborn or non-accepting.

Mista_Trix

26-06-2013, 11:08 AM

futurist

26-06-2013, 11:15 AM

I'm not saying don't say it and don't come in with apposing views, that's totally fine, just be careful about the way the argument is presented.

It's one thing to say a persons argument is invalid (argument centric), its another to say the person doesn't know the industry or is educated enough to comment because of their arguments statements (person centric).

If we all stick to the argument not the person making it I'm a happy camper.

Mista_Trix, on behalf of many members here, could you tell us if you affiliate with CNU? Remember, the admin is watching you so you better answer truthfully.

Let's say you are not. Well then I am really interested how you come up with the logic that you would like to block me while you agree with almost everything I said, according to your own words in post #667? That is the complete reverse of moosie_900's "I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it." So you still think I am the one with issues here?

Mista_Trix

26-06-2013, 11:36 AM

Mista_Trix, on behalf of many members here, could you tell us if you affiliate with CNU? Remember, the admin is watching you so you better answer truthfully.

Let's say you are not. Well then I am really interested how you come up with the logic that you would like to block me while you agree with almost everything I said, according to your own words in post #667? That is the complete reverse of moosie_900's "I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it." So you still think I am the one with issues here?

Excellent finger pointing. That is exactly why, polarizing and emotive.
I'm happy to discuss, but I don't really like people that use shock and use extremes to argue instead of comment. What cant be summed up in a paragraph often isn't worth reading. And pages and pages of posts of how ignorant we all are can get a little dull.

I don't work for Chorus, as stated in other posts I work in e-learning design and development.
Well done detective.

futurist

26-06-2013, 11:48 AM

Nice post Futurist. I've 30 years in ICT and the last 10 at an EA level (and still love to code when they'll let me). You're absolutely right about the huge layers of b.s. we have to wade through that mean UFB looks like the only soln. It isn't the only solution if we're talking browser type usage as you correctly point out.

Yourself and Mista Trixs pretty much smack the nail on the head for two reasons:

1. We're living with muck created by by some very poor engineering over the last 20 years in the internet world.

2. We're living with a paradigm where airwaves are out and on-demand is in. The only answer is that I-net pipe coming into your device. Wave bye-bye to TV over the air - it'll be on-demand via the wire. Every consumer has a t.v. and the t.v. will be replaced by devices that rely on the I-net (as it is already for many gen-y'ers). Odd to think really - the dumb consumer is paying for UFB so they can download TV.

[tongue-in-cheek post with some hard facts and light-headed banter. lighten up guys - envy isn't that becoming and PHDs say something about a person - pretty much all of it good if my experience is anything to go by.]

Thanks. I am sure we share the knowledge that the internet was not built for the intention of usage in the form of today when it was born, and sometimes short-term quick and dirty solutions look more favorable than long-term ones; but as the mindset of software developer gradually changes so would the software.

I can give a real life example I personally experience with that most of you could relate to. Probably you are aware that the mobile device space is divided between iOS and Android. When Steven Jobs first announced that the iPhone could only run with web-based apps, most software developers thought that was just crazy and that missed the total point of having a smartphone. So a year after that, Apple released their SDK and now we are flooded with native apps. But if you have worked in this space long enough, you would feel there is something wrong with this approach. Wait a minute, aren't we simply moving back to the PC era with a replacement of a smaller device? We are killing the web, or more exact we are killing the openness we treasure so much when we develop native apps. To be fair, at the time when Steve Jobs announced web-based apps only for the iPhone, the browser technology could not handle the work required for a native experience. However, the case is not the same anymore as of today. It turns out that Jobs was right and luckily we have a group of people working so hard to make the web better.

My point is, even experts in the field often have blind spots and we always need counter arguments to challenge our traditional wisdom. There are two golden principles in this industry: follow the rules, and break the rules. So while some may argue that my suggestion are too idealistic for their current situation, I could also argue that their current situation is not necessarily a good anchor to stick with.

futurist

26-06-2013, 12:02 PM

Excellent finger pointing. That is exactly why, polarizing and emotive.
I'm happy to discuss, but I don't really like people that use shock and use extremes to argue instead of comment. What cant be summed up in a paragraph often isn't worth reading. And pages and pages of posts of how ignorant we all are can get a little dull.

I don't work for Chorus, as stated in other posts I work in e-learning design and development.
Well done detective.

You said you agreed with most of what I said, but you still would block me. I asked how you came up with that since discussion forum does rely on respecting the rights of others to express even we may disagree among each other. And your answer to that is because 1) you don't like people use shock and extremes and 2) people who cannot sum up in a paragraph isn't worth reading.

Are you saying that we should all follow your rules of using mild examples and express opinions in not more than a paragraph, so that you won't block any of us and be happy to discuss? Oh thanks for the heads up, it does clear up a few things.

Mista_Trix

26-06-2013, 12:10 PM

Honestly mate I'm not doing this. Good luck with flaming someone else.

futurist

26-06-2013, 01:54 PM

Hi Futurist. After re-reading some of your posts unfortunately the reason you are rubbing people the wrong way is simply because you come across as obnoxious at times. Like RTM I'm not sure if this is intentional or whether there is some ESL or cultural issue (the way you communicate reads much like many of the people I have taught in the past, hence the basis for my suspicion). Either way, don't kid yourself into thinking people have reacted only because you have offered an alternative point of view.

Up to you how you want to deal with all this, I hope you will take on board some criticism because in spite of the unfortunate way your posts read at times, their content is often really interesting and IMO add to this thread.

Fair enough, and I do believe none of us is perfect and surely under that frame I share as much flaws as the next person. I am also with you that when we read a post perhaps there are two components to it: the cover and the content. A logical person could separate them and perhaps would not confuse one with another. For me, I don't mind people being obnoxious if the reasoning of their content is sound. If you work in an academic field, you must have met most of these people, right? Just try to remember the comments from the reviewers you get from your last paper, then surely you know what I am talking about.

Of course I take criticism but I have to be selective. I can't possibly entertain those asking me to go home or indicate their desire to block my post right? So could you accept that I take your word seriously enough that I also differentiate you from those illogical folks? Also I am really tired of those who gang up on people just because they don't like them.

futurist

26-06-2013, 02:04 PM

I was and still am pretty excited when Google announced New Zealand would be the place they first launch their Project Loon. I know at this stage this project still doesn't really relate to the discussion of UFB or CNU. But maybe it will become relevant eventually, who knows.

http://www.google.com/loon/

P.S. Hey CNU employees, I really like to hear your comments on what you think about this type of project from a professional perspective. I am sure we could all learn something from you.

Silverlight

26-06-2013, 03:00 PM

futurist

26-06-2013, 03:15 PM

Sold FPH down last week and bought some Chorus, very good price on yield, earnings or DCF in my investment view.

In my amateur technology view (and someone who upgraded to fibre in March), fibre is the way forward simply because of speed. The market place will always have people who code stuff terribly, build websites poorly, make files that are too large, and while geek purists can grandstand that we need to be smarter about programming et al, there will always be developers who are monkeys, therefore, in my lay mans view, you will always need a bigger pipe to cope with more and more data.

From a political economic view, while Craigs view on downgrading Chorus is valid, it is a short term call, and in 2 years time we will be back at 3.5+, with two 25 cent divs in the bank as well, and Craigs will have a buy based on yield.

May I ask, why in 2 years time we will be back at 3.5+ with the promised dividends? And if that is indeed more probable to happen than the opposite, why the downgrade is also valid? Let's assume brokers recommendation covers at least 12 months; then for both your view and their view to be correct, there would be a 12 months period of low and flat followed by a 12 months period of up. Then my question would be, why buy in now if indeed that is what you try to tell us? I just don't see the action and the explanation of the action match.

Okay if I am the only one who feels this way, I guess I am being obnoxious again and I am sorry about that.

TimmyTP

26-06-2013, 03:20 PM

futurist,

May I suggest you create a new thread for communications technology relating to NZX stocks (call it what you will).

This topic is directly relevant to many stocks: CNU, DIL, SNK, SKT, TEL, VCT and XRO to name but a few. So your thread could be a central point for in-depth discussions of the sorts of technology issues about which you are so passionate.

Those with a deep interest in these topics could explore these issues in detail; it would be available and potentially useful for anyone who wants to help to understand how technology developments might affect their portfolio.

Hope that's a win for everyone.

Silverlight

26-06-2013, 03:50 PM

May I ask, why in 2 years time we will be back at 3.5+ with the promised dividends? And if that is indeed more probable to happen than the opposite, why the downgrade is also valid? Let's assume brokers recommendation covers at least 12 months; then for both your view and their view to be correct, there would be a 12 months period of low and flat followed by a 12 months period of up. Then my question would be, why buy in now if indeed that is what you try to tell us? I just don't see the action and the explanation of the action match.

Okay if I am the only one who feels this way, I guess I am being obnoxious again and I am sorry about that.

Craigs call for a sell was at $2.60 with a target price of $2.29, and this price would reflect all uncertainty. We hit $2.29 yesterday, so according to Craigs all uncertainty is built into the share price now, in theory they will move to a hold at some point, but brokers usually release reports every 2 to 3 months, so they will say hold in 3 months time.

Once things move to being more certain (could be 2 weeks, could be 2 years) people will pile back into the stock, because, oh yeah, Chorus is still making over 40 cents per year, and paying out 25 cents of it in dividends, confirming dividends does wonders for sentiment, and the move back up may happen way before 2 years, I will be out circa $3.50 either way.

Markets move on sentiment, and a couple of times a year share prices reflect the underlying business value, the rest of the time stocks are undervalued or overvalued, reflecting participants optimism or pessimism.

TimmyTP

26-06-2013, 04:07 PM

I have set up such a thread for Futurist and others to use for precisely this purpose.
(http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9218-NZX-Tech-Stock-thread-for-discussions-on-trends-in-technology)
Thank you Sparky, I hope it is well used and brings benefits to all.

TimmyTP

26-06-2013, 04:08 PM

Muppett pull your head in, that is NOT the idea at all.

JayRiggs

26-06-2013, 04:18 PM

LOL loving the drama on this thread!

futurist

26-06-2013, 04:44 PM

Craigs call for a sell was at $2.60 with a target price of $2.29, and this price would reflect all uncertainty. We hit $2.29 yesterday, so according to Craigs all uncertainty is built into the share price now, in theory they will move to a hold at some point, but brokers usually release reports every 2 to 3 months, so they will say hold in 3 months time.

Once things move to being more certain (could be 2 weeks, could be 2 years) people will pile back into the stock, because, oh yeah, Chorus is still making over 40 cents per year, and paying out 25 cents of it in dividends, confirming dividends does wonders for sentiment, and the move back up may happen way before 2 years, I will be out circa $3.50 either way.

Markets move on sentiment, and a couple of times a year share prices reflect the underlying business value, the rest of the time stocks are undervalued or overvalued, reflecting participants optimism or pessimism.

Thanks for your reply Silverlight. You did explain very clear your underlying assumptions here, even sometimes an assumption and a fact is difficult to differentiate from our use of language. But I think you have done a great job clearing my questions earlier.

I accept the picture you paint for the 2 years horizon on CNU is a possibility; but in terms of entry I would be a bit more cautious. Using your words, the pessimism on CNU could have more or less reached a certain point but the pessimism around the globe has just begun. Even predicting 2 years is difficult, maybe waiting a couple of weeks can make a difference. The dividend yield of this share would always look attractive anyway for the range of prices it is trading recently.

All the best.