CNU - Chorus

[couta1]

But they announced ages ago that the decision would be delayed to Dec. Also doesn't the drop in the value of the $NZ make our shares cheaper for overseas buyers?. Or have I misunderstood how that works.
PS - We are now back to $3-04, up 16c today. Strange. When our dollar drops and the US dollar goes up overseas investors sell stocks held in NZ and move money back to the stronger currency plus their interest rates are expected to start rising soon adding extra incentive to sell up.

[tim23]

But Jayay you are correct - our lower dollar means our assets are cheaper to buy for overseas buyers (plus tourists) and with some fat yields should support likes of SPK and GNE.

[fish]

But they announced ages ago that the decision would be delayed to Dec. Also doesn't the drop in the value of the $NZ make our shares cheaper for overseas buyers?. Or have I misunderstood how that works.
PS - We are now back to $3-04, up 16c today. Strange.

It is strange .
If I was a shareholder dependent on dividends I would sell-but that action might be delayed for many reasons.
If I was an overseas investor expecting the nz dollar to fall compared to my currency I would sell in anticipation and buy after I thought it had fallen as far as likely

[Bjauck]

Chorus hasn't been a dividend payer for some time now. I would imagine dividend seekers would have bailed out some time ago.
A cheaper NZ dollar + undervalued company = potential takeover target.
Former NZ Government monopoly in need of a shake-up - Telecom - bought up by Americans. They did very nicely thankyou. Chorus currently not paying a dividend and still suffering from regulatory uncertainty is becoming even cheaper due to dropping NZ dollar. Overseas based companies still awash with quantative easing. Maybe the NZG will suspend the Kiwi share, if needed, in exchange for a cash injection of money to help build fibre network. Far-fetched for John Key?
Disclaimer: Long-term CNU shareholder

[Brain]

$38.43 not back dated

[Harvey Specter]

$38.43Thats good
not back datedThats not.

Expect the telcos to appeal the first and CNU to appeal the second. More uncertainty until December?? when it is made final?

[Aaron]

as a monkey dartboard investor I am assuming this isn't a big deal as it seems to be what CNU was expecting per their announcement to the NZX. I honestly don't understand the business except that it is a monopoly in an area that is growing (TV etc) unless wireless internet can match the speed and capacity of fibre.
A quick look at the 2014 financial statements and without knowing the timing of the Comcom pricing decisions it looks like its trading on a P/E of close to 10 and our dividends have all gone into network assets and debt has even decreased a little. I can't be too upset as an investor if I am forgoing dividends so my company can build an asset that will keep giving for years(technology changes could upset this). Something Skycity shareholders could consider when bleating about taxpayers not funding their new hotel.

[couta1]

Thats good Thats not.

Expect the telcos to appeal the first and CNU to appeal the second. More uncertainty until December?? when it is made final?
Pretty bland update, Spark will be happy about the not back dated part and will pass on any increases on the other component to the consumer at the end of the day.

[Harvey Specter]

No movement on price - $3, though buy and sell are currently below yesterdays close. Obviusly as the market was expecting. More uncertainty till it is finalised but I'd say we are now at the new normal. Per NBR, two brokers have a 12 month price of 3.13 and 3.14

[Bjauck]

Draft decision from ComCom with no backdating is a departure from previous practice. And why the phased introduction? If they determine that price charged was incorrect then surely 1) It should be backdated and 2) The "correct" price should take effect immediately. ComCom decisions do appear to be a lottery and do not appear to provide certainty to the NZ regulatory environment or to investors..

[couta1]

Draft decision from ComCom with no backdating is a departure from previous practice. And why the phased introduction? If they determine that price charged was incorrect then surely 1) It should be backdated and 2) The "correct" price should take effect immediately. ComCom decisions do appear to be a lottery and do not appear to provide certainty to the NZ regulatory environment or to investors..
ComCom is up against the wall now that Spark has presented the 52k signature petition re lower copper prices and the benefit it will provide to the general public and publicly saying if the backdating doesn't happen they will reimburse their customers the difference plus the other telcos will also be gathering public support. I reckon the final decision in December will stand by the backdating decision outlined today with the rest staying about the same or possiblly a small reduction to what CNU will get.

[fish]

copper final pricing has been postponed so long that I am forgetting the detail so anyone kind enough to clarify a few issues?

1)comcom has refined its pricing comparison against other countries but still delaying its final decision and not allowing backdating-so what is the current price being charged.
2) Chorus invoked an option to have copper priced on that of building a new network-?has this been done?

[Mista_Trix]

So its been flirting with the 200EMA for the last few days, and is well and truly in a down-trend - lower highs and lower lows.

I was luck enough to sell out half a few months back when I reached 100% gains, and sold the rest yesterday. Totally believe in the company, but there probably wont be any news for a while, and given its trend it may float downwards or sideways for some time - money better elsewhere in that case.

Any thoughts?

[Harvey Specter]

Yeah - I sold half at $3 locking in over 100% gains on the last lot I bought but I still hold some from earlier where the gains aren't so great. I think it is just a downtrend between the next regulatory announcement. Certainty and the return to dividends will make this share more steady - at what price I dont know but happy to hold what I have to see.

[Bjauck]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/CNU/announcements/268496

Well said! ComCom need to be consistent and use realistic figures for NZ conditions.

Disc: CNU and SPK shareholder

[couta1]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/CNU/announcements/268496

Well said! ComCom need to be consistent and use realistic figures for NZ conditions.

Disc: CNU and SPK shareholder Chorus will always want a bigger slice of cake and it sounds like they want to leave only crumbs for everyone else but all interests must be weighed carefully including the cost to the end consumer. I didn't think the original ruling was fare to CNU but reckon it's about right now for all parties concerned, I can't see the backdating going in their favour. Disc-Hold only SPK now.

[Bjauck]

Chorus will always want a bigger slice of cake and it sounds like they want to leave only crumbs for everyone else but all interests must be weighed carefully including the cost to the end consumer. I didn't think the original ruling was fare to CNU but reckon it's about right now for all parties concerned, I can't see the backdating going in their favour. Disc-Hold only SPK now.

Perhaps CNU want a fair slice of the cake that reflect the appropriate relevant costs plus a return on their capital to make it worthwhile for their shareholders to invest and provide their capital. As far as I can see, Commerce Commision rulings increase investment risk. The required investment returns are probably higher than if ComCom decisions were more consistent. If the cost to the end consumer ends up being more expensive than what consumers overseas pay, then so be it. If New Zealanders think that Chorus's services deserve a subsidy then New Zealanders (the Government) should provide it.

[Bjauck]

Still no dividend! I am getting fed up that my investment in CNU remains a political football for lobby groups and is still being used to subsidise cheap internet.

[warthog]

Still no dividend! I am getting fed up that my investment in CNU remains a political football for lobby groups and is still being used to subsidise cheap internet.

If you wouldn't buy it now, why are you holding on?

The hog foresees more of the same for CNU.

[Bjauck]

If you wouldn't buy it now, why are you holding on?

The hog foresees more of the same for CNU. Good point.

[camtay]

Forgive me if it's something obvious but what's the reason for Chorus' recent jump in price?

[Bjauck]

Forgive me if it's something obvious but what's the reason for Chorus' recent jump in price? The CNU price has performed in line with the change in NZ50 over the past month. It had underperformed for a couple of weeks. Maybe some now think the sky is not falling?

[banter]

Forgive me if it's something obvious but what's the reason for Chorus' recent jump in price?
Three suggestions:
1) Directors bought - announcement the day the price went up
2) Information leak re: commerce commission proceedings
3) I sold a few last week

[Harvey Specter]

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/chorus-upgraded-after-analyst-likes-what-he-sees-adams-discussion-paper-ck-178464
First para since behind paywall:

Chorus [NZX: CNU (https://nzx.com/markets/NZSX/securities/cnu)] has been upgraded from underperform to neutral by Forsyth Barr following the discussion paper released yesterday by Communications Minister Amy Adams, which sets the stage for a sweeping review of the Telecommunications Act and how the industry will be regulated after 2020.

[Aaron]

I know I have commented previously on this thread but please ignore my previous comments as they are based on ignorance and a lack of understanding.

In an effort to understand this company better and the prospects of a return one day I have some questions.

The 2015 presentation and annual report said the budgeted final figure for the new fibre network will be $1.75bill-$1.8Bill.

1/ When is this expected to be completed? I have a date June 2019 but can't find where I got this from.
2/How much has been spent to June 2015? The financial statements have a figure of $1,136$m for fibre cables so far but this isn't necessarily the latest fibre rollout.

[Zaphod]

Chorus will always want a bigger slice of cake and it sounds like they want to leave only crumbs for everyone else but all interests must be weighed carefully including the cost to the end consumer. I didn't think the original ruling was fare to CNU but reckon it's about right now for all parties concerned, I can't see the backdating going in their favour. Disc-Hold only SPK now.

That's one of the reasons why I've advocated for retailers such as SPK to provide more higher-margin value-added services. The margins on raw connectivity will continue to be eroded.

[Hectorplains]

The 2015 presentation and annual report said the budgeted final figure for the new fibre network will be $1.75bill-$1.8Bill.

1/ When is this expected to be completed? I have a date June 2019 but can't find where I got this from.


https://www.chorus.co.nz/ufb

Their website says by "the end of 2019." They show the progress to June 2015. The cost to date is only described as "a huge financial undertaking."

[Aaron]

https://www.chorus.co.nz/ufb

Their website says by "the end of 2019." They show the progress to June 2015. The cost to date is only described as "a huge financial undertaking."
Thanks Hector, a little more digging and end of 2019 is the completion date. Another $700mill to be spent over the next four years I guess but I now realise the rollout is only part of it. The $1.8Bill is past the house but they are estimating about $1,300 to hook up each house that is where Crown Fibre Holdings(CFH) steps in up to $929mill that is roughly 714,615 connections(929mill/1,300). Difficult to say how many will connect to fibre. I won't if copper broadband is a lot cheaper, it seems to work OK for what I want but can't help feel that fibre uptake will increase as people watch TV via the internet, Skype etc Computers are taking over peoples time, I would hate to calculate the hours I spend surfing news sites and looking at cnn money world markets to see if it is red or green overnight.
Also CFH equity gets dividends from 2025. If my calculations are correct the number of CFH shares could be 464mill (929mill/2)compared to 396mill shares currently that means earnings/dividend per share gets cut in half in 2025. Although this is gradual so not quite so drastic so similar to power companies with 54% govt ownership. I prefer the power company model where the NZ taxpayer builds the asset and sells it when its up and running. Chorus the investors have to actually invest and see what happens. Due to uncertainty I sold out yesterday and might buy back in at a much higher price when all the investment is completed and it is a cash cow.
Just thought I would share so you can laugh at me in a few years after I miss another great tax free capital gain in my search for yield.

[Aaron]

Further thoughts.
Anyone holding CNU and if so what are the main reasons for staying invested as the future looks cloudy and then in another ten years you get your investment cut in half.

[Bjauck]

Further thoughts.
Anyone holding CNU and if so what are the main reasons for staying invested as the future looks cloudy and then in another ten years you get your investment cut in half.
I have held CNU since it separated. I recently sold half my investment. I have not gone into costings.

Admittedly I kept my investment in CNU as a speculative stock, as I thought that the heavy hand of government regulation would now lighten after TEL separated into two. I was wrong as it intensified and became erratic. Politics was all over the place with the government wavering in the face of public clamour for cheap broadband and the ISPs joining in the Chorus (!) line, so that they could fatten their margins. I am keeping my remaining investment only as speculation in the (increasingly forlorn) hope that the boot on Chorus' neck will be removed.

If Labour becomes the next government, I doubt they would release the pressure on Chorus profitablity as it would not curry short term favour with the public (for whom Chorus is an ogre) and it could mean they could renationalise the whole of Chorus cheaply and go back to a government owned and run telecom infrastructure. In any case, if investment returns for CNU shareholders remain low, taxpayer money will have to be used for future generation technology implementation as why would private investors put any more money into an area bedevilled by government and regulatory inconsistency and inappropriate cost benchmarking?

[Aaron]

Bjauck so you are speculating. I guess it ultimately comes down to cashflow. The 2016 guidance is that EBITDA is expected to be a bit less than 2015. I guess I don't understand the pricing but it should be as simple as monthly charge * 12months * the number of connections = Gross Revenue all other running costs would be pretty fixed in nature so once the fibre roll out is done and people are connected a good analyst accountant should be able to pretty accurately predict expected dividends. Sadly that is not me. I will keep watching with interest.

[xafalcon]

Chorus is the comcom's whipping boy. The example they can use to "discourage" other natural monopolies from the mere thought of price gouging (except for "protected" industries like big oil)

Government assurances that they would over-rule comcom lured me in to a false sense of security.

I feel lucky I managed to escape with only a small capital loss and 18 months of anxiety.

I would never touch this stock again, too much history of political and regulatory intervention

[Aaron]

I would never touch this stock again, too much history of political and regulatory intervention
Regulatory uncertainty will be sorted this year though.

[xafalcon]

Regulatory uncertainty will be sorted this year though.

We thought the same thing 18 months ago........

That there have been 2 successive postponements is an indictment of how eager comcom are to continue whipping Chorus as long as possible

Then there will probably be appeals whichever way the decision goes

Don't hold your breath

[Harvey Specter]

Regulatory uncertainty will be sorted this year though.


We thought the same thing 18 months ago........
I dont think it will ever be 'sorted' but I think things are getting better. If/when they return to dividends, a potential inflow of yeild investors may result.

[couta1]

Chorus is the comcom's whipping boy. The example they can use to "discourage" other natural monopolies from the mere thought of price gouging (except for "protected" industries like big oil)

Government assurances that they would over-rule comcom lured me in to a false sense of security.

I feel lucky I managed to escape with only a small capital loss and 18 months of anxiety.

I would never touch this stock again, too much history of political and regulatory intervention Yes xafalcon and that false sense of security(Which I believe was downright misleading) has cost a lot of people a lot of money. They say every dog has its day but as it seems that day is a long way off, I think the old saying let sleeping dogs lie fits better as this sleeping dog may yet bite a whole lot of investors in their rear ends.

[Aaron]

I dont think it will ever be 'sorted' but I think things are getting better. If/when they return to dividends, a potential inflow of yeild investors may result.
That is the big question when can CNU pay a dividend again and how much per share could it potentially be. You have as guidance $605mill capex for 2016 so not likely to be in a position to pay a dividend in 2016.
There is no breakdown between fibre rollout and connections but the rollout will be done by 2019 and there is $700mill left to spend on this between 2016-2019. The connections are anyones guess but 40,000 odd in 2015 at $1,150-1,350 a connection so you would expect this to grow over the next few years as people sign up. Also the Copper and Common capex $95mill-$125mill. (I would have thought this would be under operating expenses as maintenance but would need to look at how network assets are treated for accounting purposes).

Chorus has about 1.7-1.8mill connections per the annual report. I don't really understand what this means but assume it is the number of lines data runs down they can charge for and all the classifications is just the different copper/fibre or other ways of getting it. This assumption could be way wrong but 80,000 fibre connections so far but in theory if it is a future “must have” connections of say 1mill @$1,100each could mean 1.1bill $171mill short of the $929mill provided by CFH might be required over the next 5-10yrs. Good if fibre is more profitable I guess.
2025 CFH loans start to be repaid $77mill a year over 12yrs assuming full $929mill drawn down.
2025 CFH slowly takes over as majority owner and dividends/eps get diluted by more than half although I am not sure how quickly the CFH shares will become entitled to dividends.

Might be a bright spot between 2020 and 2025 to reap some dividends, who knows.

I don’t really know what I am talking about and so many assumptions could be waaay out. I was just interested to hear what others views on it all were and maybe (kindly) point out where I am wrong.

Also you have competition from wireless networks so who is to say technology won’t make fixed fibre redundant (I don’t think it is likely though)

Disclaimer; Listening to me is bad for your investment health and I am only really trying to gain a bit of insight through others views.

[xafalcon]

That is the big question when can CNU pay a dividend again and how much per share could it potentially be.

There is nothing stopping chorus paying a dividend right now, or in times gone by. Except that it would be a very back look to cry poverty (and hence the need to keep lines charges up) and also pay shareholders a dividend at the same time.

It is a big game of chicken that involves the telco's, chorus and the comcom.

The telco's and chorus are both trying to sway comcom into deciding more towards their respective favoured outcomes. Chorus has chosen the path of claiming expenditure >= income. So can't pay a dividend without destroying the illusion

The shareholders are collateral damage

[Baa_Baa]

Sometimes it's better to be out and wondering, than be in and wondering. CNU is not the only example of this dilemma in the current market sentiment, but it's a good example.

Jmho
BAA

[RTM]

It is a big game of chicken that involves the telco's, chorus and the comcom.
Slight mod.
....involves the telco's, chorus. the shareholders and the comcom
I have a few as well....from just before they stopped the dividend.

[xafalcon]

Yes xafalcon and that false sense of security(Which I believe was downright misleading) has cost a lot of people a lot of money. They say every dog has its day but as it seems that day is a long way off, I think the old saying let sleeping dogs lie fits better as this sleeping dog may yet bite a whole lot of investors in their rear ends.

I completely agree. If the government tells the market that it will change legislation which will have a material effect on a companies regulatory requirements and then fails to honour that commitment, it is deceit. If it wasn't the government that committed the faux pas, I would imagine that some form of action would have been taken. Teflon John simply smiled and walked away

Chorus's shareholder liaison manager was pleasant to speak with, but simply regurgitated the same-old same-old lines - we're broke, can't pay a dividend, have no plan B, we're "all-in", hopeful of a positive outcome, don't know how long this will take etc

My learning from this is to stay away from natural monopolies, period

[Aaron]

There is nothing stopping chorus paying a dividend right now, or in times gone by. Except that it would be a very back look to cry poverty (and hence the need to keep lines charges up) and also pay shareholders a dividend at the same time.
It is a big game of chicken that involves the telco's, chorus and the comcom.
Based on Chorus's guidance they will be lucky to fund capex in 2016 from cashflow without borrowing (not considering interest free CFH funding) therefore any dividend would be borrowed money. I haven't looked at their credit rating but if it drops that could be expensive with $1.6bill in debt.
What do you think they could pay in dividends (cents per share) in the future.
I would think that surpluses after capex spending at least until 2019 won't leave them with much to play with. After that with a $200mill or more a year surplus at 80% $160mill/396mill shares = 40cents per share .4/2.7(current price)= 14.8% yield (plus available imp crs) but this would half to 7.4% once all CFH shares gain rights to dividend but that is a least 9-10 years away.
14.8% maybe I have been a bit hasty selling. But the next year or so things are murky at a company level and a global level, so maybe global events might allow me back in at a cheaper price in the next year or two.

[nextbigthing]

What amazes me is the market was happy to pay ~ $2.6-$3 per share when they were paying around 10% dividend yield. Makes sense. High yield for a monopoly item due to regulatory uncertainty.

Now the market is happy to pay about the same price for no yield, or anticipated future yield, which still has regulatory uncertainty. That doesn't make sense?

[xafalcon]

If chorus's accounts didn't show they were "broke", their chosen negotiating position would be null and void.......

If the fibre roll-out was truly sending chorus to the wall, they would have simply walked away from it. The comcom's initial ruling would fall under a force majeure clause. They are not continuing to lay fibre "out of the goodness of their hearts, because they are good guys".

Chorus gambled on the comcom being silenced, lost that round when the govt back-tracked, and have been peddling full speed to recover the situation ever since.

Shareholders are the innocent parties that wear the collateral damage. ie. Comcom regulates the wholesale copper line price down, Chorus stops paying shareholders, but the Telco's don't drop their retail lines prices.

Current winners are the Telco's, current losers are comcom, chorus shareholders

All parties have too much skin in this to accept the final decision, so expect appeals to follow

[Beagle]

Yes xafalcon and that false sense of security(Which I believe was downright misleading) has cost a lot of people a lot of money. They say every dog has its day but as it seems that day is a long way off, I think the old saying let sleeping dogs lie fits better as this sleeping dog may yet bite a whole lot of investors in their rear ends.

I agree 100%...surely there are better companies to invest one's hard earned money.

[macduffy]

Yes xafalcon and that false sense of security(Which I believe was downright misleading) has cost a lot of people a lot of money. They say every dog has its day but as it seems that day is a long way off, I think the old saying let sleeping dogs lie fits better as this sleeping dog may yet bite a whole lot of investors in their rear ends.

Another possibility to consider.

Perhaps the dog has already had its day?

:confused:

[macduffy]

Duplicated

[Aaron]

No-one going to question my figures in previous posts? Am I right or maybe we need Snoopy to take an interest in Chorus and break it down for us.

[tim23]

Anyone go to AGM this week in Wellington? Still holding but not sure whether to move to yield paying stock.

[Bobdn]

Anyone go to AGM this week in Wellington? Still holding but not sure whether to move to yield paying stock.

No. I'm going to keep mine until at least December where I will hopefully receive a juicy reward for my extraordinary patience over the last two years. Of course, it could be bad news and the 16000 investors that have jumped ship over the last two years will be vindicated.

I also topped up again at $2.58 a few months back (just an extra 3000 shares). It felt very very strange to be buying CNU again after the "troubles" over the last two years.

[tim23]

Is there a date in December when we should know?

[Bobdn]

Is there a date in December when we should know?

I don't know the specific date, if there is one at the moment. This ComCom media release mentions a final determination in December.

http://www.comcom.govt.nz/the-commission/media-centre/media-releases/detail/2015/commission-releases-further-draft-decisions-on-prices-of-copper-lines-and-broadband-service-for-consultation

Here's Chorus's response (which mentions a "completion" of the process in December:

https://www.chorus.co.nz/commerce-commission-releases-latest-draft-fpp-determination.

[dodgy]

No. I'm going to keep mine until at least December where I will hopefully receive a juicy reward for my extraordinary patience over the last two years. Of course, it could be bad news and the 16000 investors that have jumped ship over the last two years will be vindicated.

I also topped up again at $2.58 a few months back (just an extra 3000 shares). It felt very very strange to be buying CNU again after the "troubles" over the last two years.

Good afternoon Bobdn and all,
Chorus is shaping to be a real cliff hanger - will they, won't they, dividends after the dust settles? My take is a final slightly elevated wholesale repricing which will be politically astute , then a small dividend next earning announcement with a progressive revaluation of the de-risked company. Fiber is the immediate future with quantum leaps to come in advanced light transmitted technology with a lot of these already existing but yet to be applied. Even new increased capacity fiber replacement is relatively inexpensive when the whole system is via current installed plastic conduit. Add in a large expedential use of downloaded data and you have a blue sky stock. I will stick my neck out for a $3.5/share July 1 2016 and a divi in the mix as well.
Have a great investing week and may whichever team you back win on Sunday.
Regards
-dodgy (owner/shareholder and finally seeing light at the end of this tunnel)

[tim23]

Thanks for the feedback - decided to hang in!

[Bobdn]

Hi Dodgy, yes exciting times, here's to a $3.50 price tag in six months.

[dodgy]

Hi Dodgy, yes exciting times, here's to a $3.50 price tag in six months.

Hi Bobdn
As you can see I am conservative when guestimating the future of share prices and if you follow the NZR thread my prediction of early this year is tracking well behind the ball. All things being equal we both agree whether more blue sky is over the horizon.
Regards
-dodgy (OWNER/shareholder - together we own these companies and should not be subservient)

[Puggy]

Even new increased capacity fiber replacement is relatively inexpensive when the whole system is via current installed plastic conduit.

Agreed, my understanding of the technology is that once the fiber is in the ground the technical advancements are mainly around utilising better routers at either end to push more data through the same cable, which should be relatively cheap compared to the large up-front cost of digging, laying, and sealing in the first place...

[GTM 3442]

With the slow withering of broadcast TV, and the demise of the traditional "package" satellite operators, there's going to be a nations worth of TV squirting down those cables.

Wireless will improve so that you won't need a fiber to the dwelling, but those big fiber backbones are going to be fair humming.

And Chorus will be clipping the ticket on every little photon that passes by.

Lovely. A natural monopoly if ever I saw one.

Regulated? Sure. But regulated profits are guaranteed profits!

[Bjauck]

... Regulated? Sure. But regulated profits are guaranteed profits! That has not been the case so far. The goalposts keep on moving and the regulated monopoly - or bogeyman if you will - is used as a political football.

[couta1]

That has not been the case so far. The goalposts keep on moving and the regulated monopoly - or bogeyman if you will - is used as a political football.
Exactly and this dog still needs extensive flea treatment before you'd be wanting it as a house pet.

[GTM 3442]

That has not been the case so far. The goalposts keep on moving and the regulated monopoly - or bogeyman if you will - is used as a political football.

I remain optimistic.

Not even the New Zealand bureaucracy and political establishment can spin the current farce out forever.

Surely?

[Bobdn]

Cnu up 20% over the last three months.

Anyway I've developed this crazy notion that I'm going to get paid a monster dividend next month and I've already started thinking about what I'm going to spend it on. Can only end in tears.

Two years without a dividend. Could it be as much as 40 cents per share or is just crazy talk?

[Aaron]

Cnu up 20% over the last three months.

Anyway I've developed this crazy notion that I'm going to get paid a monster dividend next month and I've already started thinking about what I'm going to spend it on. Can only end in tears.

Two years without a dividend. Could it be as much as 40 cents per share or is just crazy talk?
What is your notion based on?

[fish]

What is your notion based on?

probably just a dream
However buying pressure makes me suspect that determinations have been made and those in the know are buying.
CNU board certainly wont be counting their chickens before they are hatched.
So size of dividend-if any wont have been talked about at board level

[Bobdn]

Just a (probably silly) guess based on what I've lost. The way I see it I've missed out on 25.5 cents per share in the first year dividend payments were stopped and maybe around 16 cents per share (big guess) as consequence of the price adjustments in the second year.

I want my 41 cents back. Down $67,000 on this stock at one stage (57,000 x $2.48 buy price, stock went down to 1.30 I think) and while we're moving into sunny uplands now, I want a monster dividend in December :) I "deserve" it :)

[Bobdn]

Just read this really interesting article today in the Dom Post from Tom Pullar-Strecker (and no, Fish, I didn't dream that I read it;) Can't see it online otherwise I'd post it. He notes that the UFB project has been an "undoubted success" and that "...telecommunications companies admit they probably couldn't cope with any further increase in demand for UFB right now". That's amazing when you think about it: how many companies are in this position on the NZX? Only Chorus.

Here's something interesting. Pullar-Strecker says that "it appears a forgone conclusion that Chorus will pick up the job of building UFB2 [ie the 5% extension to the network agreed by the Govt last year] with other UFB network builders perhaps chipping in in their own territories. No other companies have publicly expressed interest in this work".

Fibre comes online in my street in February next year. I'm going for a 100/20 plan which just happens to be the same price as my current VDSL copper plan, yet my UFB will be three times faster at least and provide a much better service.

[warthog]

I'm going for a 100/20 plan which just happens to be the same price as my current VDSL copper plan, yet my UFB will be three times faster at least and provide a much better service.

Far be it from the Hog to disagree in general, but note that when the bottleneck between you and the internet is improved or, for the most part, eliminated, you gain new insights into a whole new world of internet bottlenecks that you never knew existed "...telecommunications companies admit they probably couldn't cope with any further increase in demand for UFB right now").

[Bobdn]

The article referred to above:

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/74440382/the-fewer-the-moving-parts-the-smoother-the-broadband-policy

I see D-Day is 15/12/15.

http://www.comcom.govt.nz/regulated-industries/telecommunications/regulated-services/standard-terms-determinations/unbundled-copper-local-loop-and-unbundled-bitstream-access-services-final-pricing-principle/

If it goes the way I want, I'm getting this and a big bucket of KFC. It will be quite an afternoon I can tell you.

http://www.thewarehouse.co.nz/red/catalog/product/Star-Wars-LEGO-Episode-7-Millennium-Falcon-75105?SKU=1957792

[BlackPeter]

Just to make sure we don't oversee this important event: CNU trend chart just passed a Golden Cross ... an infallible indicator that it would have been a great idea to buy the share in September 2015 for $2.50.

I guess this is the problem with lagging indicators - they are always right, but not always useful;);

Question is - where is the trend going from here? Difficult to say if the fate of the company is basically controlled by politicians. Personally I see the current risk premium as a bit low (i.e. share already too dear for me; while the average PE is around 9 (great) - the forward PE is just 13.8 (hmm). Obviously if ComCom plays it nice and the digital strategy works - I might be wrong and share holders will make lots of money.

Discl: not holding;

[Bjauck]

Just to make sure we don't oversee this important event: CNU trend chart just passed a Golden Cross ... an infallible indicator that it would have been a great idea to buy the share in September 2015 for $2.50.

I guess this is the problem with lagging indicators - they are always right, but not always useful;);

Question is - where is the trend going from here? Difficult to say if the fate of the company is basically controlled by politicians. Personally I see the current risk premium as a bit low (i.e. share already too dear for me; while the average PE is around 9 (great) - the forward PE is just 13.8 (hmm). Obviously if ComCom plays it nice and the digital strategy works - I might be wrong and share holders will make lots of money.

Discl: not holding;

These are my thoughts on CNU:

Business Environment: It is a monopoly in an industry with higher than average technological change where the cost of investment is high. The potential for technological obsolescence, means a high rate of return on investment is expected by investors to compensate for business and technological risk.

Regulatory Environment: Currently unstable. An extra loading on return therefore required by investors.

Political Environment: With MMP and the likelihood of minority/slim majority governments, squeezing a monopoly, such as Chorus, may be seen as a populist (pork-barrel politics) move to curry favour with a broad range of electors. Perhaps this adds an extra loading on investment return to compensate for political risk.

Disc: Hold CNU

[Harvey Specter]

Bjauck - I'm not to concerned about technology change as the longer term assets (fibre) wont change that much. The bits at the end that will change have a shorter life so should be compensated for. My concern is the cost of maintaining the second, soon to be redundant copper network for those that dont upgrade. It will get to the point where it is cheaper to force people to upgrade than it is to repair the old wire.Remember the main issue regarding regulatory is not in relation to fibre but in relation to the legacy copper network.

[Bjauck]

Bjauck - I'm not to concerned about technology change as the longer term assets (fibre) wont change that much. The bits at the end that will change have a shorter life so should be compensated for. My concern is the cost of maintaining the second, soon to be redundant copper network for those that dont upgrade. It will get to the point where it is cheaper to force people to upgrade than it is to repair the old wire.Remember the main issue regarding regulatory is not in relation to fibre but in relation to the legacy copper network. Good points. When fibre is widely available, there should be turn off date for copper ((as with analog/digital tv), with ISPs paying for a fair share of costs in the meantime.

[Bobdn]

Good luck for tomorrow everyone and remember if it doesn't go our way it's only money *splutter, cough, cough, wheeze*.

[Bobdn]

Decision is out. Fantastic result (even without the backdating).

I'm actually tearing up as I write this but also at my desk. I'm heading to the bogs before one of my staff notices.

[Bjauck]

Decision is out. Fantastic result (even without the backdating).

I'm actually tearing up as I write this but also at my desk. I'm heading to the bogs before one of my staff notices.
To me, it still seems that ComCom decisions remain a lottery. If they have settled on what they deem to be correct pricing, why no backdating?

[JAYAY]

To me, it still seems that ComCom decisions remain a lottery. If they have settled on what they deem to be correct pricing, why no backdating?

If Comcom are like any other Govt. dept. there will be too many loony lefties entrenched in positions of authority.
They need a complete clean out if you ask me.

[BIRMANBOY]

Hah...a poster with issues...either afraid of showing his joy to his fellow workmates or "bog' related issues..hopefully its just the former.:p Either way some certainty should move a few people. I cannot see your big dividend emerging but wouldn't be surprised by a cautious renewal of 10-15 cents. Good luck and admire your steadfast belief.
Decision is out. Fantastic result (even without the backdating).

I'm actually tearing up as I write this but also at my desk. I'm heading to the bogs before one of my staff notices.

[BIRMANBOY]

Oh my my looks like its opening at 3.50 ...some very eager punters in for a roller coaster day.

make that 3.68...whoo hoo.

[LAC]

up 19% wow

[Bobdn]

Thanks Birmanboy. You and I were in the trenches for a long time on this one.

Let's hope ttk turns the corner next

[BIRMANBOY]

LOL yes indeed with you in the trenches for a long time. Glad that your faith was finally rewarded...and I thought I was patient......you are the champeen!!!!. However, now that's done and dusted it would indeed be appreciated if you could turn that positive thinking to TTK... All it needs is some good news and we 'll be off;)
Thanks Birmanboy. You and I were in the trenches for a long time on this one.

Let's hope ttk turns the corner next

[RTM]

Looking at NZX CNU's last dividend was $0.255 per share in 2013. At $3.70 SP this is 6.9% dividend.
Is it likely that the dividend will return to prior levels ? Would be nice.
Disc. Have a few , not enough as it turns out today.

[RGR367]

Forget the dividend, I'm selling a bit now as no matter what the dividend in the future is, you cannot beat that 60 cents increase especially if you've been buying really really low then :t_up: Gut feel and steady nerve win again!

[Bjauck]

Since separation from Telecom (30 Nov 2011) the CNU price has risen 13% from $3.29 to $3.71 so far today. The NZ capital index has risen by about 55% in that time. Chorus has yet to resume dividends. Long term Chorus investors are still a long-suffering bunch...

[RTM]

Forget the dividend, I'm selling a bit now as no matter what the dividend in the future is, you cannot beat that 60 cents increase especially if you've been buying really really low then :t_up: Gut feel and steady nerve win again!

Agreed.
They have gone.
Very pleased with the delta...even if it took a bit to long.

[GTM 3442]

If Comcom are like any other Govt. dept. there will be too many loony lefties entrenched in positions of authority.
They need a complete clean out if you ask me.

I don't think the problem is their politics, I think the problem is their competence.

Looking back on this thread, the Commerce Commission have been dicking about for two years now.

That's some combination of incompetence and absurdity.

[Joshuatree]

Finished the day strongly at its highest!!:t_up: $3.84 re up 24%.Very pleasing . Holding indirectly,

[JAYAY]

I don't think the problem is their politics, I think the problem is their competence.

Looking back on this thread, the Commerce Commission have been dicking about for two years now.

That's some combination of incompetence and absurdity.

Make that three years of dicking around. And yes that is incompetence and absurdity.
However the decision not to backdate is illogical and unreasonable and that indicates political motivation.

[dobby41]

Surely the decision not to back-date is a pragmatic one as it would be hard to get the backdated increase out of the customers (defined as the people getting the service not the ISPs)?

[Bjauck]

Surely the decision not to back-date is a pragmatic one as it would be hard to get the backdated increase out of the customers (defined as the people getting the service not the ISPs)?
It is the dilemma for a monopoly providing a service that everybody ends up using - it is an easy target for populists and media to depict, whether rightly or wrongly, as a greedy corporate trying to over-charge and be unfair to the person on the street.

However Chorus' actual customers are the ISPs and phone companies. During the ComCom finalisation process these companies should have been making provisions. Chorus has had to make severe financial provisioning including the cancellation its dividend payouts to shareholders.

[Bobdn]

I agree that the Commission should have backdated. However, I hope CNU doesn't challenge the decision. Time for everyone to move on now I think.

I liked the way the Commission was big enough to say "we got this wrong" and I think Chorus CE did a superb over the two years building a compelling case.

[Bjauck]

I agree that the Commission should have backdated. However, I hope CNU doesn't challenge the decision. Time for everyone to move on now I think.

I liked the way the Commission was big enough to say "we got this wrong" and I think Chorus CE did a superb over the two years building a compelling case.

I do think that ComCom decisions should have a consistency. Otherwise companies who could be subject to Commerce Commission scrutiny, will be more reluctant to conduct business and charge higher prices in order to set aside greater provisioning as protection against the potential vagaries of ComCom requirements. In other words, we will all end up paying for ComCom inconsistencies.

[Harvey Specter]

I agree that the Commission should have backdated. However, I hope CNU doesn't challenge the decision. Time for everyone to move on now I think. Agree, but if someone does appeal, then they should counter appeal.

[xafalcon]

Surely the decision not to back-date is a pragmatic one as it would be hard to get the backdated increase out of the customers (defined as the people getting the service not the ISPs)?

The "customers" who received the benefit of lower prices were the Telco resellers - telecom, woosh, slingshot, etc. Their residential customers never got a price reduction due to "uncertainty of backdating". It is really ripe that the Telco's are now preparing to increase prices due to their "increased cost"

The comcom scored own-goals for everyone. Nice one

[Bobdn]

Agree 100% Harvey.

If the ISPs can't let this go, then CNU should pad-up again.

[fish]

Finished the day strongly at its highest!!:t_up: $3.84 re up 24%.Very pleasing . Holding indirectly,
Yep it was good
I bought a lot at 140-220 prices and took the chance of making a big profit at the end of the day
still hasn't made up for my unrealized losses in nzo-but getting there

[Bobdn]

Congrats Fish, a fine result.

[JAYAY]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/4323cbb4/regulator-transforms-chorus-from-utility-to-rollercoaster-debacle-for-investors.html

May all those at comcom read this.

[Bobdn]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/CNU/announcements/276895

Chorus confirms that it will not initiate appeals on FPP. However the chairman notes that “If other parties file appeals of the Commission decision, Chorus is likely to cross-appeal."

Ok by me. Harvey, your comment above was spot on as it turns out.

[warthog]

CNU and/or it's contractors are making an utter mess of the UFB rollout.

The quality of the installs has dropped through the floor. The hog has seen dozens of examples of such shoddy work that it won't be long before they need repair work.

Initially CNU was undergroundingthe fibre and relatively shortly after that moved from relatively large boxes to small round covers that sit flush with the footpath (tidy and out of the way).

Now the UFB boxes are stuck wherever, and the fibre run around fenceposts and the like, so the potential for damage is significant.

But the actual installers don't care. They will be long gone.

Who will pick up the cost for repair and maintenance? Crown Fibre? Chrorus?

It's a big mess.

[Bobdn]

Over all the roll out has been a huge success. But of course there's always room for improvement. In my street its very tidy.

Got UFB yesterday - installation took just on two hours. And thanks to Spark my naked 100/20 plan costs just $90 per month. Three times the performance of my old plan and $5 cheaper. Weird.

How long did your install take Hog? Did you have a bad experience. Have you talked to Chorus?

[warthog]

Over all the roll out has been a huge success. But of course there's always room for improvement. In my street its very tidy.

Got UFB yesterday - installation took just on two hours. And thanks to Spark my naked 100/20 plan costs just $90 per month. Three times the performance of my old plan and $5 cheaper. Weird.

How long did your install take Hog? Did you have a bad experience. Have you talked to Chorus?

Install took a full day. Clueless installers unfortunately. Whole consenting process an utter shambles. After a while, Chorus just letter-bombed the entire street asking for blanket consent to do whatever wherever they like. Most people told them to go jump apparently.

The wholesale fibre product itself is very stable, with performance ultimately throttled/controlled by the ISP. It's just the physical install which has had the cost cut out of it, and is downright ugly and prone to future issues. Simple case of the lowest cost solutions driven by shot-term goals as opposed to just doing it right.

Example: Chorus has the right to undertake maintenance of existing overhead wires i.e. for replacing sections, etc. However, somehow, it has become an acceptable to entirely replace aerial copper with aerial fibre under this "maintenance" regime. Complete bollocks, especially where aerial trespass is concerned. The hog told Chorus if they didn't take down the neighbour's new fibre in the airspace over the hog's pen, the hog would be left with no option but to remove it for them. After pushing things as far as they could, they decided that undergrounding directly from the verge to the neighbour's property would be OK.

That's just the tip of the iceberg. Some UFB customers have waited for 7-8 months and endured up to a dozen visits from clueless, wandering sub-sub-sub contractors before finally somebody with an ounce of wherewithal turns up and does the job.

[Bobdn]

I've read a few installation horror stories over on Geekzone. I was so relieved that things went smoothly for me. I remember reading last year that demand for UFB has now gone completely nuts, in a relatively short space of time, because of applications like Netflix and Lightbox. Of course, now that fibre is cheaper than copper, demand will be probably increase even more.

[Harvey Specter]

My install 92 in fact) went smoothly, the last down a conduit under our 100m long concrete drive. Not overly impressed with the box the installed inside the house (you have to pay for your own sparky if you want it installed in a nice hidden place) but overall both were very efficient.

Some people (like the Hog) will (quite rightly) be pricks about installs for others but that is par for the course. The scale of the rollout means that not everyone is going to be happy.

[warthog]

My install 92 in fact) went smoothly, the last down a conduit under our 100m long concrete drive. Not overly impressed with the box the installed inside the house (you have to pay for your own sparky if you want it installed in a nice hidden place) but overall both were very efficient.

Some people (like the Hog) will (quite rightly) be pricks about installs for others but that is par for the course. The scale of the rollout means that not everyone is going to be happy.

Nothing will be perfect Harvey Specter in the sense that almost by definition, as you note, not everybody will be happy.

However, the hog's point it that Chorus started out doing a good job, but since they (hog's reading of the situation) under-priced their Crown Fibre contract (thinking they could use their position in the market, their political lobbying and contacts to extract additional revenue down the track) and ran into opposition during the execution of this strategy, the quality of the installs (especially from the road to the dwelling) has dropped significantly. Once each install is signed off, Chorus are off the hook and will presumably be paid should any further work be required.

There was a noticeable point at which things went downhill.

[GTM 3442]

[QUOTE=Harvey Specter;605433The scale of the rollout means that not everyone is going to be happy.[/QUOTE]

Whyever not? Why should big job mean sloppy job?

[JAYAY]

Nothing will be perfect Harvey Specter in the sense that almost by definition, as you note, not everybody will be happy.

However, the hog's point it that Chorus started out doing a good job, but since they (hog's reading of the situation) under-priced their Crown Fibre contract (thinking they could use their position in the market, their political lobbying and contacts to extract additional revenue down the track) and ran into opposition during the execution of this strategy, the quality of the installs (especially from the road to the dwelling) has dropped significantly. Once each install is signed off, Chorus are off the hook and will presumably be paid should any further work be required.

There was a noticeable point at which things went downhill.

I would have thought that the final decision from comcom shows that Chorus did NOT under-price the contract but rather were victims of comcom blundering and incompetence.

[Bobdn]

Results out. Looks fine and 20 cents dividend for year is good. No catch up special dividend that I somehow convinced myself I was going to get :)

I'll rejoin the DRP. New Chorus chapter starts today.

[JAYAY]

Results out. Looks fine and 20 cents dividend for year is good. No catch up special dividend that I somehow convinced myself I was going to get :)

I'll rejoin the DRP. New Chorus chapter starts today.

20c is much better than the 13c forecast last Friday by Forsyth Barr.
I wonder what that will do to the share price.
$4 at least?

[Bjauck]

I would have thought that the final decision from comcom shows that Chorus did NOT under-price the contract but rather were victims of comcom blundering and incompetence....and ComCom inconsistency. Dividend rate is 5c lower than its last year before dividends ceased. However I now attach a greater risk rating to the sector CNU operates in and the regulatory environment.

[Bobdn]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/CNU/announcements/280106

Very nice strike price of $3.87 for those of us in the DRP. CNU closed at $4.01 today.

[Leftfield]

5 months and still waiting...... anyone else had problems getting high speed fibre installed. From my viewpoint CNU very inefficient and expensive.

[JAYAY]

5 months and still waiting...... anyone else had problems getting high speed fibre installed. From my viewpoint CNU very inefficient and expensive.

Had mine within three weeks of asking and it did not cost me a cracker.

[macduffy]

The moment of truth fast approaches in our street. Chorus and/or Downers have been digging holes and attaching various bits to the poles and have now disappeared. We await the next communication - from who?

Meanwhile, I read in this morning's DomPost that Chorus have terminated Downers' services in the Wellington region from mid May.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/78662251/chorus-replaces-downer-in-wellington-kapiti-and-manatatu-in-bid-to-improve-ufb-wait-times

[JAYAY]

The moment of truth fast approaches in our street. Chorus and/or Downers have been digging holes and attaching various bits to the poles and have now disappeared. We await the next communication - from who?



http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/78662251/chorus-replaces-downer-in-wellington-kapiti-and-manatatu-in-bid-to-improve-ufb-wait-times

Don't wait for them to contact you. Star hassling your provider now. ie Spark or whoever.

[Leftfield]

Don't wait for them to contact you. Star hassling your provider now. ie Spark or whoever.

Since this week I've been contacting my ISP daily..... have posted on our local FB site and within a day had over 35 responses, some quoting over 12months wait. Only about 5 posters happy with timely installs. While Chorus can blame the sub contractors (such as the Downer sacking reported today) - ultimately CNU is responsible, not ISP's.

[JAYAY]

Since this week I've been contacting my ISP daily..... have posted on our local FB site and within a day had over 35 responses, some quoting over 12months wait. Only about 5 posters happy with timely installs. While Chorus can blame the sub contractors (such as the Downer sacking reported today) - ultimately CNU is responsible, not ISP's.

Just keep hassling. The squeaky wheel gets the oil.

[macduffy]

Just keep hassling. The squeaky wheel gets the oil.

Will do, JAYAY. I guess individual installs will inevitably be the slower part of the project.

[freddagg]

Once you have a deal with your ISP it seems to work better if you talk to Chorus direct instead of through the ISP

[Bobdn]

Chorus going well. I guess it's now considered safe income stock, until 2020 anyway. If it goes past $5, I'll take my leave:)

[dobby41]

They could do with keeping an eye on the quality
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11668641

Ultra-shoddy broadband: exposed cables worry residents

[Cricketfan]

They could do with keeping an eye on the quality
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11668641

Ultra-shoddy broadband: exposed cables worry residents

How that can happen is beyond me. I mean it's one thing for one or two bad employees to do such poor work, but it's another for the company to ignore complaints about it (until the press get involved).

[sb9]

Listening to ZB this morning on the way to work, looks like Chorus got ripped thro' Hosking and also lot of disgruntled people on talk back...

Disc: Non-holder, just an observation.

[Bjauck]

Listening to ZB this morning on the way to work, looks like Chorus got ripped thro' Hosking and also lot of disgruntled people on talk back...

Disc: Non-holder, just an observation. Digruntled people on talkback, who would have thought :) I think it is a given that big companies, especially utilities and utilities in monopoly positions, with many customers are going to have some unhappy customers. However that is not to say that they could always improve...
Disclaimer: Holder in AIR, IFT, CNU, SPK

[Bobdn]

Holy cow, this mammoth drop over the past three days takes me back a year or two :)

[Marilyn Munroe]

Holy cow, this mammoth drop over the past three days takes me back a year or two :)

Profit flat, large drop in copper connections, departing CEO has a moan about the regulated copper price.

The demand for fibre is stretching Chorus in both manpower and process.

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/business/312035/chorus-full-year-profit-flat

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[dobby41]

Unfortunately the higher copper price (higher than many wanted) gives more room and incentive for the likes of Spark to offer Wireless Broadband.

[couta1]

Holy cow, this mammoth drop over the past three days takes me back a year or two :) Overdue, way too expensive, might be okay at $3.50 ish.

[Bobdn]

Yes, some incentive but 4g wireless isnt a threat to fibre. Chorus can hardly keep with fibre demand at the moment.

Chorus share price increased 85% over the last year. If that momentum was to be maintained the Board needed to deliver more than a 5% increase in the dividned. Still, a nice earner until 2020 at least.

[Marilyn Munroe]

Uh-oh! Some toy throwing down in the ducting;

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/business/312077/major-engineering-firm-won't-re-tender-fibre-contract

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

PS. Pretty impressed with Skinny(part of Spark) 4G wireless internet when I needed a temporary connection.

https://www.skinny.co.nz/broadband/

[bung5]

All the better price for the the DRP ;)
increasing dividend for the next 4 years even with the huge capital investment. After 2020 CNU will be have a large cashflow to return to shareholders.

Agree that wireless broadband isn't a threat to fiber.

[Bobdn]

Bought a small amount of CNU this morning, all I could afford. I'm hoping that Chorus will just be a boring investment from now on, even with the regulatory issues coming up in 2020.

I'm looking to exit the workforce in 18 months so need boring and reliable:)

[Bobdn]

Now xd. The price kept on dropping right up to the xd date. Over the last month it dropped over 15%. Did anyone else take advantage of this?

87% of new fibre connections are now for the 100mbs and up premium products. Chorus have just launched 1gb/s services across all its fibre areas. 1gb/s means the best internet in the world, think Japan, South Korea and Singapore. And it won't stop there. 10gb/s will be deployed whenever Chorus feels the demand is there.

Is Chorus a "growth" stock? I'm thinking maybe it could be.

[dobby41]

Speed is only part of the story - can you make money out of being the 'best in the world'?

[Bobdn]

Yes, I think so. The 100/20 plans wholesale for $42 per month now and the 1000/500 plans will go for $60 up to June 2017 and after that $65. Chorus wholesales the 30/10 plans for just $39 per month :(

So speed/being the best in the world really does pay huge dividends.

[shonen knife]

Based on my experience with their extreme incompetence trying to get fibre installed, I am surprised that they are making any money...but I guess I have no choice but to use their services.

[Bobdn]

Ive found it hard to have an investment discussion on the Sky and Chorus threads. They always seem to attract complaints about the service. BHP is not too bad, no one tends to complain about the quality of iron ore.

[Bobdn]

Nice to get the dividend back after three whole days. It's like getting paid twice. Not so good for the DRP.

[peat]

Ive found it hard to have an investment discussion on the Sky and Chorus threads. They always seem to attract complaints about the service. BHP is not too bad, no one tends to complain about the quality of iron ore.
yes I agree Bobdn, many posters seem to get bogged down with anecdotes , which are irritating in any rational discussion on investments. I'm not denying that cumulatively a public perception of poor service/product may ultimately have an impact on the business but in general its meaningless and should be avoided on these forums.

My colleagues and I are today discussing Chorus and where its revenue will come from post UFB rollout. Our concern is that the cash flow may dry up significantly when they are only maintaining the network. Any thoughts on that from other posters?

[Bobdn]

I could be wrong but they will own the network. The big issue coming up is the pricing review in 2020 I think.

[Bobdn]

Sorry, can't seem to edit from my phone so I'll add: I think its just a case of paying back the money they owe to the government. Other LFCs (local fibre companies) are paying off the money early and in return the government no longer has a stake in the LFC. I'm vague on details but It's all good news. See Amy Adams press releases on the Beehive website and Crown Fibre Holdings.

I cant help but think the four LFCs have enormous growth potential; people are pouring into the country; new fibre products are coming onto the market; people's data appetite is insatiable.

I would invest even more in Chorus but for the regulatory environment. What will happen in 2020? Not that long ago some people were calling for Chorus to be nationalised!!! Sometimes I think investing in Argentina would be easier ;)

https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/early-return-ufb-funding-highlights-rollout-success

[Bobdn]

Good news we got our DRP shares for $3.67. God bless you DRP.

[winner69]

So Chorus has handed more of its New Zealand ultrafast broadband network building work to Australia's Visionstream, while warning the cost of the project will be at the top end of its projected range

Does this mean earnings will be at lower end of, or even less than, guidance

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/95172b97/chorus-gives-more-fibre-work-to-visionstream-warns-build-cost-will-be-at-top-end-of-guidance.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Chorus%20gives%20more%20fibre%20work% 20to%20Visionstream%20warns%20build%20cost%20will% 20be%20at%20top%20end%20of%20guidance&utm_content=Chorus%20gives%20more%20fibre%20work%2 0to%20Visionstream%20warns%20build%20cost%20will%2 0be%20at%20top%20end%20of%20guidance+CID_b1c57665b 256beac9f3f6b34ea4e15ad&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle95172b97chorus-gives-more-fibre-work-to-visionstream-warns-build-cost-will-be-at-top-end-of-guidancehtml

[sb9]

So Chorus has handed more of its New Zealand ultrafast broadband network building work to Australia's Visionstream, while warning the cost of the project will be at the top end of its projected range

Does this mean earnings will be at lower end of, or even less than, guidance

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/95172b97/chorus-gives-more-fibre-work-to-visionstream-warns-build-cost-will-be-at-top-end-of-guidance.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Chorus%20gives%20more%20fibre%20work% 20to%20Visionstream%20warns%20build%20cost%20will% 20be%20at%20top%20end%20of%20guidance&utm_content=Chorus%20gives%20more%20fibre%20work%2 0to%20Visionstream%20warns%20build%20cost%20will%2 0be%20at%20top%20end%20of%20guidance+CID_b1c57665b 256beac9f3f6b34ea4e15ad&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle95172b97chorus-gives-more-fibre-work-to-visionstream-warns-build-cost-will-be-at-top-end-of-guidancehtml

May be they could take leaf out of Eroad book and provide guidance around whether their sp is higher or lower relative to today's announcement :p

[bung5]

Very hard to make any judgement out of today's announcement. No doubt they will be explaining in detail to the fund managers exactly what this means.

IMO higher install costs won't materially impact bottom line, only free cash flow?

[winner69]

Very hard to make any judgement out of today's announcement. No doubt they will be explaining in detail to the fund managers exactly what this means.

IMO higher install costs won't materially impact bottom line, only free cash flow?

Yeah, they did mention something about looking at how they capitalise such things

[bung5]

"Chorus has today priced an issue of EUR500 million notes under its Euro
Medium Term Note (EMTN) programme. The notes bear interest at 1.125% per
annum and mature on 18 October 2023. The notes are to be issued on 18
October 2016 and will be fully swapped to NZD785 million. Application will
be made to quote the notes on the ASX."


This is smart play from CNU board/management. Euro devaluing while paying 1.125% interest! win win for chorus.

[babymonster]

the chart looks ugly...if it cannot hold 3.6, next level is 3.1. there is a big gap between 3.6 and 3.1 needs to be filled if you believe it gap filling theory...

[Bobdn]

Chart looked pretty ugly when it was $1.29. never buy in a down trend, omg no. ;)

[bung5]

Chart looked pretty ugly when it was $1.29. never buy in a down trend, omg no. ;)

^^^^^^^^^^^

[Aaron]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/86061442/spark-unrepentant-after-chorus-accuses-it-of-errors

Didn't think much of Spark a month or so ago they rang to ask if I wanted a better internet connection and I could keep my number but it would be attached to a mobile number or something of the sort. Part way through the conversation I realized they were selling me a deal to use their wireless network and ditch the copper. Once I worked that out I told them to f**k off and stop wasting my time but I would imagine plenty of people wouldn't have a clue what was really being offered. Chorus could lose a lot of business from rural folk switching to Sparks wireless network. The sales person just said I would get more data and the internet would work better, I only twigged what was being offered because I took an interest in chorus a while back. It doesn't worry me too much as I didn't invest in chorus but it upset me that the marketing for the switch to wireless is sort of deceptive from Spark. I am sick of b*lls**t and deception fobbed off as clever marketing trying to confuse people to sell **** is a sad state of affairs.

[Bobdn]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/86061442/spark-unrepentant-after-chorus-accuses-it-of-errors

Didn't think much of Spark a month or so ago they rang to ask if I wanted a better internet connection and I could keep my number but it would be attached to a mobile number or something of the sort. Part way through the conversation I realized they were selling me a deal to use their wireless network and ditch the copper. Once I worked that out I told them to f**k off and stop wasting my time but I would imagine plenty of people wouldn't have a clue what was really being offered. Chorus could lose a lot of business from rural folk switching to Sparks wireless network. The sales person just said I would get more data and the internet would work better, I only twigged what was being offered because I took an interest in chorus a while back. It doesn't worry me too much as I didn't invest in chorus but it upset me that the marketing for the switch to wireless is sort of deceptive from Spark. I am sick of b*lls**t and deception fobbed off as clever marketing trying to confuse people to sell **** is a sad state of affairs.

That really is naughty isn't it. The Chairman and CEO of Chorus have noticed these shenanigans.

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1610/S00911/chorus-chair-challenges-telcos-on-slow-vdsl-uptake.htm

[Jim]

A few months ago an Indian man from Spark, with a heavy Indian accent knocked on my door asking me if I include my prepaid mobile payment into my phone bill I will be paying $14 a month instead of paying $19 a month for 500 mb, 100 free minutes. Without any hesitation I signed up thinking that was a good deal. To my surprise when my phone bill arrived instead of paying discounted $14 I have to pay $19.99 and some other confusing charges. What a ripoff from Spark. I immediately change the provider from Spark to Skinny paying $30 a month for 3 gigabits and unlimited calls. What a ripoff merchant Spark were and now Skinny is cannibalising them lol

[Baa_Baa]

A few months ago an Indian man from Spark, with a heavy Indian accent knocked on my door asking me if I include my prepaid mobile payment into my phone bill I will be paying $14 a month instead of paying $19 a month for 500 mb, 100 free minutes. Without any hesitation I signed up thinking that was a good deal. To my surprise when my phone bill arrived instead of paying discounted $14 I have to pay $19.99 and some other confusing charges. What a ripoff from Spark. I immediately change the provider from Spark to Skinny paying $30 a month for 3 gigabits and unlimited calls. What a ripoff merchant Spark were and now Skinny is cannibalising them lol

Skinny is owned by Spark. It's their discount brand. Confusing eh?

[Aaron]

Skinny is owned by Spark. It's their discount brand. Confusing eh?
Looks like nothing has changed since Teresa Gattung admitted they make the charges confusing so they can charge more/discourage people from changing service provider.

[Bobdn]

Good to see some sanity come back into the Chorus share price, just two weeks ago it was $3.50! (which was getting stupid cheap).

I am just about fully committed but managed to scrounge together $7000 to buy a few more. It was the best I could do and better than nothing.

[Bobdn]

Lots of work for Chorus coming up with UFB2 roll out.

https://www.chorus.co.nz/ufb2

[bung5]

My rough calculation has chorus on PE of 13 on fy 17 guidance.

Still quite bit of upside

[Bobdn]

Yes, good result beating expectations. CNU hopefully has now become boring investment that I always wanted. It pays a reasonable, sustainable dividend that is forecast to increase modestly in the years ahead. It's a cornerstone of my retirement income.

[Snow Leopard]

Yes, good result beating expectations. CNU hopefully has now become boring investment that I always wanted. It pays a reasonable, sustainable dividend that is forecast to increase modestly in the years ahead. It's a cornerstone of my retirement income.

Increase in profit (mainly) from a change in accounting treatment otherwise not so flash.

Still need to keep borrowing to build (& maintain) the network.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Bobdn]

OK, that might explain the drop in share price today. I didn't read beyond the media release/Herald article.

[couta1]

Yes, good result beating expectations. CNU hopefully has now become boring investment that I always wanted. It pays a reasonable, sustainable dividend that is forecast to increase modestly in the years ahead. It's a cornerstone of my retirement income. That was the word on the street and in every taxi cab back in 2013 also, and look at the destruction that occurred after that.:eek2:

[Bobdn]

Yeah that's for sure. Chorus should never have turned out that way. New Zealand's reputation as a place you could invest in took a massive hit through the Chorus debacle.

Invest in regulated industries at your peril. It's still not a lesson I've learned.

[Baa_Baa]

Yeah that's for sure. Chorus should never have turned out that way. New Zealand's reputation as a place you could invest in took a massive hit through the Chorus debacle.

Invest in regulated industries at your peril. It's still not a lesson I've learned.

I got caught up in that debacle, through complacency and lack of attention. Thank goodness the rulings eventually erred in favour of Chorus and shareholders, I bailed with surprise capital profit and vowed never to go there again.

If I could add to your summatiion, noting that most industries are regulated to some extent, the ones to avoid imo are those that have a dedicated department at ComCom. You can be almost certain none of the employees own the company shares, nor are they interested in anything other than ideals that are effectively anti-commerce.

The government forces a monopoly and then the regulator ensures that it is never commercially as successful as it could obviously be having that unique advantage.

Furthermore there can never be certainty that the regulator wont dream up new punitive measures at any time in the future that ill suits investors.

For that reason I'm out. (couldn't resist that one liner)

😳🔫

[bung5]

Again the shareprice conveniently dips for my dividend reinvestment plan

[Bobdn]

Sorry, Bung, no cheap DRP shares coming our way this time, not counting the 3 per cent discount. Share price has now recovered completely from the xd price yesterday.

[bung5]

Ah well its grinding away in the bottom draw. Hopefully dividend will be bumped up again for FY18

[Bobdn]

Nah, I take it all back. DRP strike price came in at 4.04 and the price today is 4.31. It's been an incredible investment over the last two years.

[couta1]

Nah, I take it all back. DRP strike price came in at 4.04 and the price today is 4.31. It's been an incredible investment over the last two years. And one of the biggest wealth destroyers ever listed on the NZX to boot.

[Bobdn]

Yeah tough times, for sure. Glad that things have worked out so well for you since with AIR and that mega special dividend. Alls well that ends well😀

[couta1]

Yeah tough times, for sure. Glad that things have worked out so well for you since with AIR and that mega special dividend. Alls well that ends well You did well to hang in there during that very dark period, we must of course lay the blame at the right feet, that being the highly incompetent Com Com.

[Bobdn]

Well, i never escaped the ComCom. I bought SkyTV. Not sure why I torture myself, just so unnecessary.

[bung5]

Well, i never escaped the ComCom. I bought SkyTV. Not sure why I torture myself, just so unnecessary.

Genuinely interested how retail holders think the macro can work out well for skytv. Probably should ask on the skytv thread.

Chorus seems steady growth for the time being. Slight threat from fixed wireless providers but I can't see that lasting long with the steady growth in data consumption

[Marilyn Munroe]

Genuinely interested how retail holders think the macro can work out well for skytv. Probably should ask on the skytv thread.

Chorus seems steady growth for the time being. Slight threat from fixed wireless providers but I can't see that lasting long with the steady growth in data consumption

For an idea how things are going where SKT and CNU intersect read this thread on the geekzone website forum.

http://www.geekzone.co.nz/forums.asp?forumid=151&topicid=210519

Book boop de do
Marilyn

[peat]

very disappointing announcement today
I'm seeing a slow decline, margin pressure, potential foreign competition (eg Huawei), and no where to go in the long run

8795

[Bobdn]

Really? I wouldn't be too dispondent. I just see an insatiable demand for data. I see households are now downloading on average 135gbs of data. Much more than than any 4g wireless plans offer. And data demand is only going increase.

The most interesting statistic for me was that 93 per cent of Q3 net fibre adds were on 100mbps plans. Great to see premium fibre selling so well. In 5 years that may not even be enough when 8k TVs are in introduced and virtual head sets are common place ;)

[peat]

but who is making money from all this data. ? mainly ISP's I think

technically as welll there is a massive bearish gartley on the chart , I will short hard if it goes to 4.40

8796 8797

[Bobdn]

The data requirements mean that for the most part 4g wireless connections won't work for most people so fibre or vdsl will be a better choice (which means money for Chorus). However the very clever people at Spark are saying bad things about copper/vdsl and trying to get people to choose 4g.

Spark is running a great campaign and making inroads. Are they doing the best thing for their customers? Hmm, I don't think so. Maybe Chorus will set everyone straight but I'm not hopeful. The company has always struggled to tell it's story and RSPs have been able to run rings around them on the PR front.

[Zaphod]

The most interesting statistic for me was that 93 per cent of Q3 net fibre adds were on 100mbps plans.

For most RSP's 100Mbps is now the base plan, so that could account for the 93% figure.

The wholesale cost of 100Mbps/20Mbps fibre v 30Mbps/10Mbps is very similar; only a few dollars difference.

[Bobdn]

I'd have to look it up but I think it might be $38 vs $41, which of course is huge where the bottom line is concerned.

[Zaphod]

I'd have to look it up but I think it might be $38 vs $41, which of course is huge where the bottom line is concerned.

Yes, that pricing sounds right. While that does translate to relatively large costs for RSP's across their customer base, the RSP's I've spoken to said their margins are high enough to absorb the additional cost, and customers find both the increased download & upload channel bandwidth useful. The emerging trend for RSP’s appears be to bundle other application-layer services (e.g. Netflix, Lightbox, Spotify etc.) to maintain even higher margins, typical triple-play stuff.

RSP margins do take a nose dive after 200Mbps, so those 1Gbps plans are not sustainable at the current price point. Nor are they particularly useful for residential customers given the low CIR and that the GPON aggregate backhaul bandwidth would be consumed by two 1Gbps connections. Anyway, slightly OT rant over, I promise!

[Aaron]

Interesting maybe Chorus doesn't really have a monopoly.
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1704/S00364/chorus-broadband-connections-dip-in-march-quarter.htm

I am unsure who the other fibre network providers are but imagine they will be rolling out their networks in the cities and most profitable areas.
Spark has obviously been successful with their bull**** wireless network marketing, quite a few people wouldn't even appreciate the difference between a wireless connection and a fibre one. Spark is their provider and if they are selling them a more reliable option people will tend to just go along with it.
Mind you that said the article is about broadband connections which I assume includes copper, fibre and wireless. I had better not say much more in case my ignorance is exposed.
I wonder how wireless gets on in cyclone conditions?

[Bjauck]

Interesting maybe Chorus doesn't really have a monopoly.
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1704/S00364/chorus-broadband-connections-dip-in-march-quarter.htm

I am unsure who the other fibre network providers are but imagine they will be rolling out their networks in the cities and most profitable areas.
Spark has obviously been successful with their bull**** wireless network marketing, quite a few people wouldn't even appreciate the difference between a wireless connection and a fibre one. Spark is their provider and if they are selling them a more reliable option people will tend to just go along with it.
Mind you that said the article is about broadband connections which I assume includes copper, fibre and wireless. I had better not say much more in case my ignorance is exposed.
I wonder how wireless gets on in cyclone conditions? I would like to be able do away with fixed lines and satellites and have all television, telephony and broadband served by reasonably priced 4g (and beyond) wireless.
Disc SPK, CNU shareholder

[peat]

I would like to be able do away with fixed lines and satellites and have all television, telephony and broadband served by reasonably priced 4g (and beyond) wireless.
Disc SPK, CNU shareholder

why?

its slower (in terms of latency - which has a surprising impact on user experience) despite it being potentially faster in file transfers
its less reliable
as mentioned above its more liable to impact from weather conditions.
data is more expensive

[Bjauck]

why?

its slower (in terms of latency - which has a surprising impact on user experience) despite it being potentially faster in file transfers
its less reliable
as mentioned above its more liable to impact from weather conditions.
data is more expensive True. I would like to be able to be totally wireless but it's not good enough yet. However in my area in rural S.Auckland neither power nor telephone lines in the area are undergrounded and are prone to poles falling down and other outages. 4g is usually clear as a whistle and has very seldom been completely out of service. Satellite tv also seems to have more "atmospheric issues."

[Major von Tempsky]

Can one get a glass fibre connection AND Broadband through Spark? I hold a lot of shares in Spark, I'm on copper lines and my Broadband is through Spark and I'm reluctant to stab Spark in the back, I don't want a radio connection.

[bung5]

Can one get a glass fibre connection AND Broadband through Spark? I hold a lot of shares in Spark, I'm on copper lines and my Broadband is through Spark and I'm reluctant to stab Spark in the back, I don't want a radio connection.


glass fibre = ufb = broadband

[Zaphod]

True. I would like to be able to be totally wireless but it's not good enough yet. However in my area in rural S.Auckland neither power nor telephone lines in the area are undergrounded and are prone to poles falling down and other outages. 4g is usually clear as a whistle and has very seldom been completely out of service. Satellite tv also seems to have more "atmospheric issues."

There are definitely cases where wireless is a more appropriate technology to be deployed, and on balance, this certainly seems like one of them.

[Baa_Baa]

Can one get a glass fibre connection AND Broadband through Spark? I hold a lot of shares in Spark, I'm on copper lines and my Broadband is through Spark and I'm reluctant to stab Spark in the back, I don't want a radio connection.

You can commission Spark to migrate your broadband service to fibre, however Spark will likely subcontract the local fibre installer to actually do the installation work.

[Major von Tempsky]

Thanks Baa Baa.

I take it Bung5 doesn't follow that you can get Broadband via copper wires, glass fibre or radio? 3 different alternatives? Does anyone understand what Bung5 is trying to say?

[bung5]

Thanks Baa Baa.

I take it Bung5 doesn't follow that you can get Broadband via copper wires, glass fibre or radio? 3 different alternatives? Does anyone understand what Bung5 is trying to say?


Maybe I misunderstood what were you were asking. You said you wanted glass fibre (which is UFB) and broadband? (the two aren't mutually exclusive)

Do you mean you wan't a fibre connection where the fibre is owned by spark and not chorus for example?

[Major von Tempsky]

Actually I thought ComCom were trying to keep Spark out of glass fibre, part of the reason Chorus was split out (and may be the real reason that the Team Talk takeover didn't go ahead because of looming ComCom objections). Preferably I want to get my Broadband from Spark but to get it via glass fibre, or is somebody saying that Spark is so desperately pro radio that they won't agree to such an arrangement?

[Zaphod]

Actually I thought ComCom were trying to keep Spark out of glass fibre, part of the reason Chorus was split out (and may be the real reason that the Team Talk takeover didn't go ahead because of looming ComCom objections). Preferably I want to get my Broadband from Spark but to get it via glass fibre, or is somebody saying that Spark is so desperately pro radio that they won't agree to such an arrangement?

To set the scene with regards to UFB: The Local Fibre Company (LFC) own the physical medium upon which the broadband service is provided by a Retail Service Provider (RSP).

LFC's include Chorus, Northpower, UltrafastFibre etc.
RSP's include Spark, Vodafone, 2Degrees, Orcon, MyRepublic etc.

Spark are attempting to shift many previously copper-based broadband connections to a cellular provisioned service, in order to ostensibly improve service, but no doubt increase their margins given Spark own the cell towers (medium).

Spark have connection agreements with all the major LFC's, so the answer to your question is yes, you can use Spark to provide you with broadband across fibre


Disc: To keep things simple, I am omitting any reference to fibre owned and laid outside of the UFB agreement, and omitting any discussion about RSP's who don't have interconnection agreements with some LFC's.

[dobby41]

To set the scene with regards to UFB: The Local Fibre Company (LFC) own the physical medium upon which the broadband service is provided by a Retail Service Provider (RSP).

LFC's include Chorus, Northpower, UltrafastFibre etc.
RSP's include Spark, Vodafone, 2Degrees, Orcon, MyRepublic etc.

Spark are attempting to shift many previously copper-based broadband connections to a cellular provisioned service, in order to ostensibly improve service, but no doubt increase their margins given Spark own the cell towers (medium).

Spark have connection agreements with all the major LFC's, so the answer to your question is yes, you can use Spark to provide you with broadband across fibre


Disc: To keep things simple, I am omitting any reference to fibre owned and laid outside of the UFB agreement, and omitting any discussion about RSP's who don't have interconnection agreements with some LFC's.

There are only 4 LFCs - Chorus, Enable, Ultrafast and Northpower.
Sparks preference is Fibre, then wireless, then copper - they prefer wireless broadband over copper because of the cost.
They are more than happy with fibre.

Spark will not provide their own fibre for residential - it just wouldn't be cost effective to overlay what the LFCs have already done.
They do provide their own fibre in major cities - they always have.

[Aaron]

There are only 4 LFCs - Chorus, Enable, Ultrafast and Northpower.
Sparks preference is Fibre, then wireless, then copper - they prefer wireless broadband over copper because of the cost.
They are more than happy with fibre.
I think you will find that Sparks preference is wireless as it is their network. Or are they only trying to switch people to wireless where fibre is not available?

[dobby41]

I think you will find that Sparks preference is wireless as it is their network. Or are they only trying to switch people to wireless where fibre is not available?

They are trying to switch people to wireless where fibre isn't avaliable - copper to fibre prefered but copper to wireless is good.
Either way - get off copper.

[Zaphod]

There are only 4 LFCs - Chorus, Enable, Ultrafast and Northpower.
Sparks preference is Fibre, then wireless, then copper - they prefer wireless broadband over copper because of the cost.
They are more than happy with fibre.

Despite this preference, Spark have actively marketed cellular-based services to those located in UFB serviced areas. Vodafone similarly, have also run campaigns.



Spark will not provide their own fibre for residential - it just wouldn't be cost effective to overlay what the LFCs have already done.
They do provide their own fibre in major cities - they always have.

I didn't say Spark will provide fibre directly to residential customers. The latter point I made was in relation to (for example) Chorus having fibre laid in residential suburbs of UFF LFC zones. These have occurred prior to the LFC's laying their own fibre, or where a separate agreement was reached with the owners of the subdivision.


They are trying to switch people to wireless where fibre isn't avaliable - copper to fibre prefered but copper to wireless is good.
Either way - get off copper.

Yes, definitely. Spark seem to be inconsistent with their reasons for doing this, but I suspect it's margin related rather than service related as they have communicated.

[Jay]

Spark offered me wireless where fibre was available, seemed to be trying to get in first, more profitable for them as they do not need to pay anything/as much to Chorus and the cost per month was the same as I was already paying.
Had it for about a month, but discovered you cannot access anything remotely from an app, such as Home alarm etc. Something to do with security protocols of the wireless (mobile) network so they told me eventually after emailing the chief honcho as I was not getting anywhere with the unhelpdesk.
As they had said wireless can do everything fibre can (except speed, but wireless was about 10 x faster than my previous copper broadband), I got changed over to Fibre without any further costs, they even let me keep the wireless modem, what I will do with it I'm not quite sure!

[dobby41]

Yes, definitely. Spark seem to be inconsistent with their reasons for doing this, but I suspect it's margin related rather than service related as they have communicated.

Absolutely margin based.
Though they do know that they can't support 300k+ subs on Wireless Broadband

[Bobdn]

Will be interesting to see whether CNU gaining entry into the ASX 200 will have any impact on the share price.

[freddagg]

Will be interesting to see whether CNU gaining entry into the ASX 200 will have any impact on the share price.

Looks like it already has Bob.

[Bobdn]

Wow, that's a big jump.

[Bobdn]

For the two or three other people that hold this stock, share price has reached a new high. Yay!

[freddagg]

For the two or three other people that hold this stock, share price has reached a new high. Yay!

I still hold them and likely always will. I vaguely remember you saying if they got to $5 you would sell. Its getting closer.

[Bobdn]

I still hold them and likely always will. I vaguely remember you saying if they got to $5 you would sell. Its getting closer.

Yes, that sounds about right. I might sell some at that price and will keep the rest. Things are far from balanced in my portfolio at that moment. Thank god I've got Sky and Whs in my portfolio to keep my ego in check :)

[Snow Leopard]

No comment?

Full year results (https://nzx.com/companies/CNU/announcements/306241)

Suit yourselves
Paper Tiger

[Aaron]

I read the brief bit in the herald this morning. Connections are dropping? including broadband (does that mean fibre as well?)
Looks like chorus can't just sit back and watch the money roll in from their monopoly. Spark has been working hard to put people on its wireless network. Sparks advertising and cold calling was a bit deceptive in my opinion.
Chorus needs to tell the public how fibre is better and counter Sparks disinformation. Maybe chorus could fund studies on whether increased radiowaves and microwaves are causing more cancer or lowering sperm count.

[dobby41]

Maybe chorus could fund studies on whether increased radiowaves and microwaves are causing more cancer or lowering sperm count.

Really?
Get a tin hat - or a tin codpiece.

[horus1]

Chorus has old technology which is being bypassed for many applications

[dobby41]

Chorus has old technology which is being bypassed for many applications

Chorus has fibre too - 83% of the fibre.
Certainly copper is in decline.

[Aaron]

Really?
Get a tin hat - or a tin codpiece.

Just kidding on that one but Chorus needs to educate people I think. If a Spark cold caller rings me and says "are you sick of slow unreliable internet we can help for no extra cost you can keep your landline number but it is now somehow linked to your mobile number and you get a great internet connection without all the outages from the old network". I would have said yes except I clicked that they were just trying to get me off the chorus network onto their wireless one. I guess the big question is which network is the better one to be on.
Most people (myself included) don't give a **** about wireless, fibre, 3G, 4G, bandwidth etc etc. we just want to use the phone and internet.
According to Horus1 above, Chorus has old technology anyway so maybe they are wasting their time with the fibre roll-out.

[Marilyn Munroe]

The Commerce Commission is proposing to deregulate service obligations for copper where there is a fibre alternative from 2020.

This enables Chorus where there is an alternative to abandon copper if it chooses.

I would not be surprised if there is a push by Chorus to switch copper holdouts to fibre before this date. There would be savings for Chorus having to run only one network. If a digger cuts your copper Chorus would likely not repair the cut and instead switch you over to fibre.

It is possible to install a voice communication device that looks like a phone and rings like a phone but is connected by fibre using current technology for those Luddites that just want a phone.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[dobby41]

I guess the big question is which network is the better one to be on.
Most people (myself included) don't give a **** about wireless, fibre, 3G, 4G, bandwidth etc etc. we just want to use the phone and internet.
According to Horus1 above, Chorus has old technology anyway so maybe they are wasting their time with the fibre roll-out.

If you don't care about the technology (and most people won't) take what they offer and hold them to it (the reliability that is).
Chorus fibre is fine and isn't old technology at all - nothing wrong with it. Not sure what Horus1 meant by their comment.

[dobby41]

It is possible to install a voice communication device that looks like a phone and rings like a phone but is connected by fibre using current technology for those Luddites that just want a phone.

Um - it is a phone!
May not be copper based but it is still a phone.

[Snow Leopard]

Um - it is a phone!
May not be copper based but it is still a phone.

http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/sadist-leaves-millennial-a-voicemail-20170825134685

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Jay]

My phone is connected to the Fibre box thingy on the wall so it is Voice over the internet.
Have said previously, Spark offered and I took the mobile connection route, however the mobile connection blocked incoming access to my alarm system (could not access remotely) so changed to Fibre at their expense as they said there will be no differences, they also refunded the fee for the alarm technician to come out and try to "fix" the connection which wasn't broken!
Once back on Fibre I fixed the alarm connection myself via the modem.

[Aaron]

Someone else read the herald this morning by the looks of it although Morningstar only give it a valuation of $3.90. Sold out in Sept 2015 due to uncertainty and missed a great capital gain. maybe need to look at this after GFC2.(which is right around the corner)

[Rep]

I have an underground copper line that's less than 10 years old (newish subdivision) and I have VDSL which basically runs at 60 downstream and is limited by CNU to 16 upstream.

It's been as high as 76 downstream and because everyone else where I live is on Fibre I don't really get contention. I can see the whisper cabinet from my doorstep so it's only copper for about 400 metres and Fibre from there. If CNU removed the limit on the upstream I'd probably get performance almost as good as most Fibre 100 connections and better than Fibre 30.

Now I have contractors ripping up the berms and digging holes everywhere to install the UFB and war signs all over the footpath and my front lawn next to the connector box. I appreciate that it's future proofing but it seems nuts right now to switch to UFB as opposed to someone removing the upstream limit for the sake of 400 metres of fibre and the cost of installation and changing over modems etc.

[couta1]

Someone else read the herald this morning by the looks of it although Morningstar only give it a valuation of $3.90. Sold out in Sept 2015 due to uncertainty and missed a great capital gain. maybe need to look at this after GFC2.(which is right around the corner) If Morningstar value it at $3.90, it must be worth more by default.

[horus1]

Rep , the same hapened around our streets .I will be going on wireless .Don't like chorus their service was terrible.

[horus1]

It looks like the rural broadband is going to wireless which is a troubling sign for Chorus. Dont touch there shares.

[freddagg]

Rep , the same hapened around our streets .I will be going on wireless .Don't like chorus their service was terrible.

Good luck with streaming 4k

[peat]

If CNU removed the limit on the upstream I'd probably get performance almost as good as most Fibre 100 connections and better than Fibre 30.

Are you sure it is CNU placing the limit and not your ISP ?? (I dont know the answer, I'm just asking)

[Rep]

Good luck with streaming 4k

At a reliable 60MB downstream (Speednet reports over 57 MB after overhead) and little contention, the VDSL is twice as fast as fibre 30.

Streaming 4k without compression is going to need up to a gigabit downstream and that's 10X faster than Fibre 100 and 33X Fibre 30...

[freddagg]

At a reliable 60MB downstream (Speednet reports over 57 MB after overhead) and little contention, the VDSL is twice as fast as fibre 30.

Streaming 4k without compression is going to need up to a gigabit downstream and that's 10X faster than Fibre 100 and 33X Fibre 30...

I think you mean 60 Mbits, which is an eighth of 60 MBytes.
Everything being streamed is compressed, Netflix say 25 Mbps is good for watching 4k
I run Netflix in 4k through a Samsung suhd tv and the quality is stunning. Even with a 75 inch screen I need to be within 3 metres to see all the detail

[JAYAY]

Does anyone know what's going on with Chorus today?
8,300,000 shares changed hands in an off market trade and no other trades.

[JAYAY]

Ok now. First trade at 11.16 am 1550 changed hands.
Not a popular stock right now?

[macduffy]

Does anyone know what's going on with Chorus today?
8,300,000 shares changed hands in an off market trade and no other trades.

If it was an uneven number I would guess that it was an aggregation of the holdings of small shareholders who have accepted Zero Commission's offer to buy them out at $3.80.

Disc: I'm keeping my own small holding!

[macduffy]

Mystery solved!

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/311040

[peat]

Mystery solved!

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/311040

always a contrarian signal when ACC gets in. :p

[JAYAY]

So in the space of four days, ACC sold 180000 at $4.13 and bought 260000 back in at $3.95.
Were these related party off market trades?
Looks suspicious.

[peat]

I see Spark today announced 100 thousand wireless broadband customers and that they are expanding the service to include portability. Sounds just like a mobile phone hahah

These customers now pay their fees to SPK who no longer need to pay Chorus for that fixed line connection

Also notable recently was that self serving comment from the CNU CEO trying to jump in on the 5G setup but this was quickly shot down by the retail telco's.

[Marilyn Munroe]

NBR headline;

"Chorus connections keep falling in December quarter."

https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/chorus-connections-keep-falling-december-quarter-expects-data-usage-grow-2018-b-211747

Boop boop de do
Mariyln

[couta1]

An okay result, divvy increased and fully imputed, too boring to say much more. Disc-Holding

[Aaron]

I haven't been following this company but the results for the half year are below the same six month period a year before. It looks like it is almost going backwards.

I reckon Chorus has a problem in that it is not a retailer and its customers like Spark are trying to move Chorus's customers away from Chorus's network.

If fibre is a lot better than wireless then chorus should be promoting it somehow because Spark won't.

[Marilyn Munroe]

I haven't been following this company but the results for the half year are below the same six month period a year before. It looks like it is almost going backwards.

I reckon Chorus has a problem in that it is not a retailer and its customers like Spark are trying to move Chorus's customers away from Chorus's network.

If fibre is a lot better than wireless then chorus should be promoting it somehow because Spark won't.

Have you seen the advertisements on TV promoting Chorus's askforbetter.co.nz website.

My opinion on the fibre v cellular issue; The determining factor will be the uptake of entertainment providers such as YouTube or NetFlix and the ability of the competing modes to handle the bandwidth these channels demand. At the moment I believe fibre has the edge but may be challenged by the talked about deployment of 5G cellular.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[peat]

Thats how I see it too MM. Hence my medium-long term concerns for Chorus.


I will be soon be temporarily reverting to VDSL and thus experiencing the best that ageing copper can provide. How outdated is it I will know soon. Unfortunately will have to deal with Chorus to get fibre installed again. so I will also get to see see how their ambitions to be more customer-centric are panning out

[Joshuatree]

Whenever ive asked friends how much faster fibre is when they've converted, they hesitate, some try and put a good spin on it but i never get a conclusive "its faster" response.

[peat]

Whenever ive asked friends how much faster fibre is when they've converted, they hesitate, some try and put a good spin on it but i never get a conclusive "its faster" response.

yeh the correct way of explaining it is the transferring of data is definitely a lot faster , but the user experience only moderately so. Transferring one large file is super quick but internet usage is mainly lot and lots of little transfers
and so the benefits are diluted and more relating to ping speed.

[RTM]

yeh the correct way of explaining it is the transferring of data is definitely a lot faster , but the user experience only moderately so. Transferring one large file is super quick but internet usage is mainly lot and lots of little transfers
and so the benefits are diluted and more relating to ping speed.

Using a speed test....my VDSL Copper was slightly faster than my sons Fibre in TeAtatu.
We were both surprised....

[Aaron]

Have you seen the advertisements on TV promoting Chorus's askforbetter.co.nz website.

My opinion on the fibre v cellular issue; The determining factor will be the uptake of entertainment providers such as YouTube or NetFlix and the ability of the competing modes to handle the bandwidth these channels demand. At the moment I believe fibre has the edge but may be challenged by the talked about deployment of 5G cellular.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

Thanks for the reply. Obviously not taking any notice of the ads but will keep an eye out. I wouldn't be surprised if Spark sales reps would actually dissuade people from fibre over their wireless network. Can't help think that as computers and TVs become one and the same, data and data speed will become more important and fibre might come into its own. I would have thought that Chorus should be adding connections as this is essentially its business once the infrastructure(capital spend) is in place.
Don't mind if copper is faster as Chorus gets paid for this as well.

[peat]

Using a speed test....my VDSL Copper was slightly faster than my sons Fibre in TeAtatu.
We were both surprised....
You should be able to get download speeds of 20-50 megabits a second on VDSL
I currently get about 90 on fibre.

[RTM]

You should be able to get download speeds of 20-50 megabits a second on VDSL
I currently get about 90 on fibre.

Yes...it may well depend on the plan you are on. Don’t know. But being on VDSL/Unlimited Dara has transformed our habits. Land line is no more. Netflix, no Sky. Almost no ads as we record any free to view that we want to watch. Live sport is the biggie that we miss.

[Aaron]

Just putting this link here so I can find it later.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/102088478/consumers-winning-but-vodafone-warns-of-return-to-old-telecom

[Aaron]

There was an article about unbundling the fibre network in the herald this morning. Not sure what unbundling means but think it is selling connections wholesale to the likes of spark and Vodafone.
It will happen by 2020. Is this bad for chorus?

The share price doesn't think so.

[dobby41]

There was an article about unbundling the fibre network in the herald this morning. Not sure what unbundling means but think it is selling connections wholesale to the likes of spark and Vodafone.
It will happen by 2020. Is this bad for chorus?

The share price doesn't think so.

Unbundling fibre would be the same as unbundling copper - you would give Spare etc access to the fibre itself (and they would put their own gear on the end) rather than terminating the fibre with Chorus gear and sending them the bitstream.

[Aaron]

Thanks dobby.

I would have thought that if you are now selling something wholesale rather than retail it would be bad for your profitability. Obviously I don't understand telecommunications very well.

[dobby41]

Thanks dobby.

I would have thought that if you are now selling something wholesale rather than retail it would be bad for your profitability. Obviously I don't understand telecommunications very well.

Chorus sell the fibre wholesale now, but they bundle their own electronics and charge for it.
Spark are retail but are limited to the regulated offerings and what Chorus makes available.
If you can access the fibre direct then you can offer anything.

[traineeinvestor]

Chorus sell the fibre wholesale now, but they bundle their own electronics and charge for it.
Spark are retail but are limited to the regulated offerings and what Chorus makes available.
If you can access the fibre direct then you can offer anything.

So, that is potentially good news for Spark if they can generate enough new revenue off whatever new products they will be able to offer to justify the cost of attaching their own hardware etc Chorus' fibre network?

[dobby41]

So, that is potentially good news for Spark if they can generate enough new revenue off whatever new products they will be able to offer to justify the cost of attaching their own hardware etc Chorus' fibre network?

that is how unbundling works - you need to be able to save enough to pay for your own gear or have a new killer service not available from Chorus (or the other 3 LFCs).