Who's in for the Mighty River Power float?

[RRR]

I applied for MRP shares on line for myself and my better half, 10K each - let us see what happens!

[Jay]

I applied for MRP shares on line for myself and my better half, 10K each - let us see what happens!

Yes have applied for some for my 2 children
All online, funds cames out next business day as it says.

[Joshuatree]

Im not buying but will watch and see how things settle. Too many variables like how much competitive tension/ pressure from insto's etc to underpin the s/p. Some think there will be no downside because "they have to make the first one successful" for other listings to follow ,ignoring things like the P/E etc..

[thedigger]

I'll put my head on the block...float $2.65, settle for next 2-3 weeks $2.80-2.95 then the drop !!

[thedigger]

I'll put my head on the block...float $2.65, settle for next 2-3 weeks $2.80-2.95 then the drop !!

I must add I like the stock a lot and have stated MRP are the Crown Jewels of North Island power but I'm in once matters settle and that could well be 2-6 month after the float JMO....

[CJ]

OK - I think I have my plan sorted.

I will be investing about 1/2 of what I originally planned, though I expect scaling to be less. I will do it through one entity rather than spreading over multiple so scaling will have a bigger impact than my original plan (but a lot less hassle, especially if I decide to sell before I had gone through the process of combining).

I expect to get about 70 - 80% of what I apply for due to scaling (I am a small investor).

I expect the price to be in the lower half of the range and (hopefully) not drop below the IPO price, unless Labour/Greens improve in the polls (ie. the lower IPO price reflects a say 50% chance they get into power and implement their plan). Personally I think there is a lot wrong with their plan so I hope they end up with, if elected, a light handed regulation rather than 'nationalisation'. That would put the change of implementation below 50% since I think they currently have a 50% chance of winning the election.

I am also an investor in CEN, TPW and IFT so will probably take an equal amount off one of these (probably IFT as it is overweight) so my industry weighting stays constant but I have more diversification for dry/wet years etc. My target is for MRP to be about 1/2 my CEN holding.

If I get all I apply for, I will probably sell down to the level I actually want.

[fungus pudding]

Hmmn I have just completed the process online myself, and it asked for the registration code from my pre-registration. So I would have to say the whole process has been completed online as far as I can tell.

Would hate to be wrong but was told the money will leave my account tommorrow.

Fair enough. I didn't see that option, but did send investor no. and money disappeared overnight - so whatever works.

[Minerbarejet]

I'll put my head on the block...float $2.65, settle for next 2-3 weeks $2.80-2.95 then the drop !!
How about float at 2.37 - rise to to 2.50 for 10 minutes an hour later drop to 1.93 by nightfall.
Dont forget that the L&G could come up with another load of rubbish even as it floats which would be a very effective way of negating the entire asset sales if the price should drop. Wouldnt touch with a bargepole. Will pick up later at 1.50 if I ever feel the need.:)

[NZSilver]

MRP - good assets, Dams in the north island (from my research the lowest generation cost compared with other sources of power).

Im in.

[mouse]

Four Thousand vanished from my bank account overnight. So I am in. My sixpennyth is a price set of $2.25 per share. Plus I am almost sure scaling will occur and I will get around $3,400 of shares. My predictions. Others welcome.

[CJ]

Turmeric - there are about 5 different polls so I would say monthly would be safe - http://curiablog.wordpress.com/ normally summerises them and does a poll of polls report.

In the short term, I would expect polls to go in LG favour just from the feel good of $300. In the scheme of things that is nothing and expect National to come out all guns blazing next year.

I actually though Labour had some good policies last time (if you were center or left), CGT, higher super age and no to asset sales, and they had one of their worst results in years. You also have centre voters who may be concerned a vote for labour is a vote for Greens, being a bit further left than they are willing to go. Also, Shearer isn't strong but has been getting better.

On Nationals side, they have no partners. ACT and United are 1 vote max if that. To go it alone in MMP is impossible.

If I was a betting man, I would say that https://www.ipredict.co.nz/app.php?do=browse&cat=319 has Labour and National back to front but 52:48 chance sounds about right at the moment. The wild card is of course Winstone - Will Key go there and what will Winstone do to punish Key for his previous treatment should he have to.

[janner]

Also, Shearer isn't strong but has been getting better..

Agree CJ.. Getting better but beginning to look a little " Drawn ".. Don't think that he has the stamina to be PM..

" The wild card is of course Winstone - Will Key go there and what will Winstone do to punish Key for his previous treatment should he have to"

Also agree on this.. Think that Winstone is beginning to mellow :-))

[fungus pudding]

Agree CJ.. Getting better but beginning to look a little " Drawn ".. Don't think that he has the stamina to be PM..

" The wild card is of course Winstone - Will Key go there and what will Winstone do to punish Key for his previous treatment should he have to"

Also agree on this.. Think that Winstone is beginning to mellow :-))

I'm sure you are right. Winston is full of bluster about not coalescing with anyone unless they agree to buy MRP back. But Key's a good negotiator and I'm sure he's got a boxful of baubles and assorted other toys for Winnie to play with if he promises to be good. NZ is looking pretty healthy overall and there's lots of good news to dribble out over the next few years. Labour still needs to find a leader so I reckon National have got a very good chance of being returned.

[minimoke]

I have been thinking about this too, i.e. the likelihood of a Labour/Greens government after the next election effecting the MRP SP.

This is a difficulty investors should not be having - we should not be trying to decide on an investment based on an election outcome. That we are must send a poor message to foreign investors.

In my view its not Labour Greens we need to look at. As stated earlier its National and its coalition partners who are now looking very slim on the ground. Today I'm picking Maori vote will return to Labour and the demise of the Maori Party. Banks and ACT have failed their constituents who are likely to put their vote to National. I don't think even Epsom can rescue him this time around. That leaves national with no natural partners barring the pseudo Nat in Ohariu. But that will only be one seat.

On the other side we clearly have Labour and the greens. Between the two of them I'm picking they will exceed National / United Future seats.

Which leaves Winston back in King Maker position. Labour Greens are just as able to offer Baubles as National. I'm picking he'll go with Labour. I’m picking he’ll pick up disgruntled National constituents who do not want the Assets Sales. And National will still have sales on their agenda come election time so it will be an election issue. Meanwhile Labour will remind the public how Nationals sale of MRP lost the hard working NZ public $400m – or whatever the figure works out to be while Nationals fat cat mates plunders the jewels.

So the next question is will Labour / Greens advance their policy. I’m thinking ‘yes’. They have the history – its not so far back in our memory that they scuppered the Canadian Pension Fund bid for AIA. That said, I’m not sure we've seen a flight of overseas capital after that decision.

So have, I changed my mind. No. I’m still out of this IPO. Though I am erring towards coming back in. Buying at a lesser price is becoming more tempting – but I need to see something that will drive the fund managers, in a frenzy back into this market – I’m not getting that sense yet. CEN and TPW are on my watchlist – if I see confidence return with an upswing in price and volume I’ll reconsider MRP.

[Billy Boy]

Winston could have a major influence on the next election.
Word on the street in Otago is a harder leaning toward the Blue Corner.
The Red Corner is slipping a bit, Not to the blue corner, but the Black & White corner.
The Polls dont reflect that !!!
Winston did a promo through the S/Island recently. (I did not go). One of his calls was
for "money earned in a region, should be spent in THAT region"
Now that war cry went down very well, especially in Southland.
"Would help solve Auckland's housing/transport problems by spreading the population."
He could well have a point !!
Red/Green's torpedo at MRP, does not sit well in Otago or Southland
"put the div's out to the public, Govt would earn more from the taxes than it does
not collecting the divvy". was a call from the floor !!!

MRP.... I registed but will not be buying.
BB

[Snoopy]

OK - I think I have my plan sorted.

I will be investing about 1/2 of what I originally planned, though I expect scaling to be less. I will do it through one entity rather than spreading over multiple so scaling will have a bigger impact than my original plan (but a lot less hassle, especially if I decide to sell before I had gone through the process of combining).

I expect to get about 70 - 80% of what I apply for due to scaling (I am a small investor).

If I get all I apply for, I will probably sell down to the level I actually want.


Interesting CJ. There are certainty a lot of negatives out there potentially affecting the demand for MRP shares. So using the philosophy of Buffett (Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy) I have decided to go for it. I have doubled the amount I was originally going to apply for.

I am not sure I am being entirely logical about this, because some of the 'fear' out there I believe is real and justified. Part of my reason for doubling up is politically motivated.

I am incensed at John Key offering up to 40% of the shares he is offering up to overseas institutions. Don't get me wrong I am not xenophobic about those based overseas buying into MRP. I just think the shares should go to individual New Zealanders and New Zealand institutions first. If overseas people want to join the queue after local demand is fulfilled or buy on the market after the float is done they can do so then. To that end I want to do my bit to ensure the float is oversubscribed by NZ investors just to get the message to Key that he should have put NZ investors at the front of the queue!

My rather limited industry contacts suggest that it is the small investors who are running scared. This ties in with my own extended family experience. The blackbird that I recently adopted that frequents my back lawn and cousin cockroach who scuttles around under my compost pile will no longer be applying for shares. But those with a bit of market cycle experience are holding fast. So I think scaling will still be high, with applicants getting nearer 25% of what they apply for than 75%. If I do get all the shares I apply for, by some remote chance, I do intend to keep them all though.

SNOOPY

[Snoopy]

If MRP have an asset revaluation reserve of $2,296m (p144 of prospectus) and there are 1,400m shares on issue, that represents a NTR (net tangible revaluation) of:

$2,296m/ 1,400m = $1.64 per share

OK this is a back of the envelope quick calculation. But lookiing at the worst possible scenario, and for MRP that represents a Greens/Labour government, are we not looking at a capital write off of $1.64 per share should the government change?


Interesting article on 'sharechat' today, with Wellington institutional broking firm Woodward Partners rating the relative risks of what could go wrong for MRP.

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/c5316180/labour-greens-policy-far-down-the-list-of-mrp-s-biggest-worries-says-woodward.html

"A research report from Woodward analyst Nick Lewis ranks the Labour-Greens policy 10th in a list of 16 risks faced by the state-owned power company,"

Basically they think the policy is too complex to set up and is liable to fact court challenges.

However, I don't agree with that as regards hydro dams. The construction cost are all known and documented, and hydro makes up the lions share of historical low cost generation. So I think it would be quite easy to implement the Greens/Labour policy for the dams, even if

"a fair return for thermal plants due to the complexities of varying utilisation rates under different hydrology and associated take-or-pay contracting arrangements."

would be far more difficult to calculate, and might have to come into the scheme later.

"Woodward still ranks MRP's top risk as drought preventing electricity generation on its string of Waikato River dams, a risk already well identified."

While that may be true on a one year basis, for the long term investor planning to stay for may years I don't believe that a drought will damage MRP if they have one bad season, apart from the obvious cut in dividend for that one season.

Where I think Woodward does have a valid point is their second highest risk:

"A potentially severe impact on MRP's profitability of Electricity Authority proposals to radically reorder the way costs of the national grid - the state-owned monopoly Transpower which owns national transmission lines - are allocated among generators and consumers."

"The MRP prospectus identifies this as a potential annual increase in costs of $65 million a year, with potential impacts on the cost of retail activities."

Transpower really does need to keep upping their act. And the Gentailers are first in line to pay for that, if the charges can't be sluiced through to consumers.

SNOOPY

[iced]

From a Morningstar CEN report:
We continue to believe wholesale electricity prices would need to be north of $75-80/MWh for new geothermal and wind units to be viable and above $100/MWh to warrant investments in hydro generation. In other words, Labour’s pricing policy would render investments in new generation uneconomical. Also, Labour’s strategy of providing a fair return to generators based on their cost of operation could impact low cost generators which under the current environment enjoy stronger margins and returns. In essence Labour would level the playing field for all generators such that thermal operators would achieve returns similar to their renewable counterparts. Consequently companies like Mighty River and Meridian could witness a bigger dip in their profitability and returns under Labour’s regime and therefore have more to lose.

Our conversation with Morningstar’s US utilities analysts’ suggests that regulation is not a panacea for achieving a competitive pricing regime. In fact over the last 4-5 years customers and businesses in the 20 non regulated US states enjoyed lower prices compared to those residing in regulated states. It appears free market is the best path to achieving fairer prices in the long run and we are seeing that being borne out in New Zealand as well, evidenced by the slower rate of growth in price increases over the last 3-4 years. In our view, privatization of electricity companies will foster even further competition as the government’s incentive to keep prices high in a bid to extract higher cash flows and dividends from state owned enterprises wanes.

[RTM]

Snoopy....and others, thanks for comments and information.
I to have gone in with 50% of what I originally considered I might. If it tanks....I'll probably top up with a few more. If it doesn't...at least I have some. John Key and his mates can't afford to have this one go wrong....otherwise the rest will not get off the ground with Kiwi's. Additionally the L / G ideas should create more uncertainty / risk, so I'm hoping these two items will see the price a bit lower than it might have been. Another thing that irks me is these shares ending up in off shore hands. Of course my share holding is not going to stop that.....but I can only do my bit.

Personally I think selling these is a major error for New Zealand.

[Grimy]

Well that makes me the real wimp then. I've applied for only 25% of what I was originally thinking of. So low that it probably wasn't worth the reading/thinking/guessing involved, but I agree with all RTM's comments above.

[bohemian]

I have gone with 0% of my preregistration. There are several great companies in which to invest with much less risk.

[1leon]

I have gone with 0% of my preregistration. There are several great companies in which to invest with much less risk.
I currently go with CJ, Snoopy, Grimy and bohemia---half , double, 25% and 0% of my intended investment.

[robbo24]

I'm buying in - at any rate it would be foolhardly of the communist left to nationalize the supply of electricity without paying a premium to investors left in the lurch.

I'll also take my 1:25 bonus shares paid out as an additional 4% over the premium paid by the communist left.

[macduffy]

I'm buying in - at any rate it would be foolhardly of the communist left to nationalize the supply of electricity without paying a premium to investors left in the lurch.

I'll also take my 1:25 bonus shares paid out as an additional 4% over the premium paid by the communist left.

The threat isn't nationalisation but rather heavy handed regulation that hobbles the value of the investment without adequate, or even, any compensation. Plenty of historical precedents for that!

[Soolaimon]

I am still in with 75% of my pre reg. I agree with Belg, it will be better than bank rates and I think the float will be a success and we won't get scaled back as much

[Toasty]

Try as I might I can't get excited about MRP. Already have a small holding in CEN from initial IPO. Before all the Labour shennanigans I might have grabbed a few but it has cast just enough of a pall over the whole thing to put me off.

I may regret it but there are so many good companies available now that I can't help thnking there are better investments.

[Billy Boy]

[QUOTE=Toasty;
I may regret it but there are so many good companies available now that I can't help thnking there are better investments.[/QUOTE]
I agree here.
I have a note on my wall which is there to remind myself>
"B4 you buy into this stock, is there a better buy elsewhere,
or can you do better with the money "
BB

[NZSilver]

Quick question, Iapplyed for shares yesterday morning, expected the money to be gone this morning from my account but it was still there. How long did it take for others?

[NZSilver]

seems like it can take up to 3 days now i look into it.

[Doyle]

seems like it can take up to 3 days now i look into it.

Mine came out two days after i applied not the next day as I expected, wouldn't panic too much.

[Master98]

Quick question, Iapplyed for shares yesterday morning, expected the money to be gone this morning from my account but it was still there. How long did it take for others?

I was in yesterday, $10000 each for me and miss, my account not be touched this morning:)

[NZSilver]

Cheers fellas!

[fungus pudding]

Cheers fellas!


Could be some sort of problem with your account. I could give you my number for a test deposit if that will help.

[Master98]

Could be some sort of problem with your account. I could give you my number for a test deposit if that will help.

Scams...
:D

[NZSilver]

Could be some sort of problem with your account. I could give you my number for a test deposit if that will help.

Nice try, but if you send that around to a few random emails and state your a young mid-20's single blond girl looking for love you will probably get a few thousand hits! Or another option is to send out some glossy information packets and claim your a finace company who can gives 20% returns.

[fungus pudding]

Scams...
:D

Not at all. I'm deadly serious. Always prepared to help. :D

[ratkin]

If applying for family members (you know what i mean !!)
Can you use your own bank account to take their money out of , or will they not allow that

[Jay]

Used mine for my children ratkin - has gone thru

[Snoopy]

How can you work out value if you don't know the price you are going to pay?


Whether you will be buying into MRP at a good price is not entirely certain, but:

1/ You have an indicative price range.
2/ You have to assume the boffins in the institutions will show some sense when they are setting the price, so that 'riding on the instos coat-tails will be O.K.'

SNOOPY

[Snoopy]

1/. A lot of the hydro plant on the Waikato River is old. Including the dams.

a/. What life is left in the dams, what capability do they have to withstand earthquakes?


Reinforcing steel was being used inside concrete buildings in the 1930s. I would say it was a safe bet that all of the MRP dams which were built after that date were constructed like that. I would also have no concerns as to the life of concrete structures like these dams from a wear and tear perspective. If anything did need to be attended to just turn off the upstream gates, empty the dam and fix it. The lifetime of a concrete dam should be almost indefinite.




b/. How much of the generating plant has to be replaced within the next ten years?


Possibly a significant amount. I read that in the NBR, referencing the 2010 MRP Annual Report some millions of dollars of capital works is coming up. I also read that that information was carefully omitted from the prospectus!

But with careful monitoring and maintenance a generation turbine should last for 20 years plus easily.

SNOOPY

[Snoopy]

a P/E Ratio that is already very high. Any gains will see it overpriced. Most smart retail investors would get out after the bonus shares . Supplementing dividends with debt


According to my reading of the prospectus, 'normalized' earnings for FY2013 are forecast to be around $194.6m. With 1400m shares on issue that translates to an eps of 13.9cps. At the low end of the share price indicative range ($2.35) that means a PE of 16.9. At the high end ($2.80) I get a PE of 20.1. While not 'cheap', I wouldn't describe those PE ratios as 'high' for a utility.

I don't believe the bonus shares will be an issue overall. They are a 4% bonus if you have up to $10,000 worth of shares, and the effect decreases the more shares you own after that.

It is true that the prospectus indicates higher borrowings in FY2014, and you can argue that MRP is borrowing money to top up their dividend payments to shareholders.

However if you divide total bank debt at EOFY2014 by net profit, as a measure of how easy it would be repay debt in a hurry, then I get:

$1,231.6m/ $160.4m = 7.7years

Or if you want the same calculation forecast for FY2013

$1159.3m/ $194.6m = 6.0 years

If I perform the same exercise on Contact Energy using the FY2012 result I get:

$1,303.9m/ $177.1m = 7.4 years

So in this instance, I don't think borrowing to supplement the dividend at MRP is really an issue.

SNOOPY

PS Will double check my 'normalised' profit estimate, as after writing this not sure if I have it right! - Have now done this and wrong NPAT estimate for FY2013 is corrected.

[mouse]

[QUOTE=Snoopy;404480] Generation plant replacement within the next ten years.

Possibly a significant amount. I read that in the NBR, referencing the 2010 MRP Annual Report some millions of dollars of capital works is coming up. I also read that that information was carefully omitted from the prospectus!

But with careful monitoring and maintenance a generation turbine should last for 20 years plus easily.

SNOOPY[/QUOTE).

New generation plant may be more efficient than the plant being replaced. What is clear is it will cost a packet. But ongoing maintenance is life. 'The Job Is Not Finished Until It Is Maintained.' And eventually replaced. Many thanks Snoopy.

[maucat41]

In section 1.3 of the prospectus, it states that the "Expected commencement of trading on the NZX Main Board (conditional settlement basis)" will be 10 May.

What does "conditional settlement basis" mean?

Will I be able to sell my allocated shares on 10 May, or will I have to wait until 15 May for "Shares expected to begin trading on a normal basis on the NZX Main Board".

[PointyHat]

At the low end of the share price indicative range ($2.35) that means a PE of 12.2. At the high end ($2.80) I get a PE of 14.6. While not 'cheap', I wouldn't describe those PE ratios as 'high' for a utility.


...........
I see that the years high /Low on the ASB webpage for MRP is 3.50/3.39

I hoped that that was not the indicative range, thanks for pointing out it is $2.35 to 2.80 Snoopy.
Where did your figures for the range come from?

[The BOWMAN]

Gone through my application. I am puzzled if someone just provided somebody else's account, will the money just go out of that account? The pre-registration process allowed someone to pre-register for David Shearer. And what is in the application process to stop someone to apply some shares for him, if they know David Shearer's bank account number?

[CJ]

Gone through my application. I am puzzled if someone just provided somebody else's account, will the money just go out of that account? The pre-registration process allowed someone to pre-register for David Shearer. And what is in the application process to stop someone to apply some shares for him, if they know David Shearer's bank account number?Nothing stopping other than the fact it is fraud/theft.

You would also have to know their IRD number or make up a valid number or else the system would reject the application. Or you could be really dumb and use their own.

If you did know their bank account and IRD number, it would be difficult for them to prove they didn't purchase the shares in order for the transaction to be reversed. I wonder if they also do some form of IP address tracking.

I guess we will see after the fact if the Govt number of shares held increases due to having to refund fraudulent purchases.

[Snoopy]

Snoopy wrote
"At the low end of the share price indicative range ($2.35) that means a PE of 12.2. At the high end ($2.80) I get a PE of 14.6. While not 'cheap', I wouldn't describe those PE ratios as 'high' for a utility."


...........
I see that the years high /Low on the ASB webpage for MRP is 3.50/3.39

I hoped that that was not the indicative range, thanks for pointing out it is $2.35 to 2.80 Snoopy.
Where did your figures for the range come from?

Pointy Hat, the indicative range for MRP of $2.35 to $2.80 is in the prospectus on page 9. As for the other information on PE ratios that you quoted from a previous post of mine, that unfortunately is wrong as in my haste I omitted depreciation and amortization from the equation. I apologize for any inconvenience and a correction will follow.

SNOOPY

[Snoopy]

As for the other information on PE ratios that you quoted from a previous post of mine, that unfortunately is wrong as in my haste I omitted depreciation and amortization from the equation. I apologize for any inconvenience and a correction will follow.


OK here is my take on how to work out the normalized profit for Mighty River Power for FY2013.

1/Go to page 111, and start with the EBITDAF figure quoted as $382.6m.
2/ Add to that the equity accounted earnings in jointly controlled entities +$46.4m. I think this refers to the earnings from the entities used to invest in Chile and the USA with the now dissolved (march 2013)GGE fund. MRP retains these assets under a different structure, so I believe it is right to include these as part of 'normal' business.
3/ Subtract from this depreciation and amortization of $149m.
4/ Subtract from this net interest expense of $57.7m.

Put it all together:
$382.6m +$48.8m - $149.9m -$57.7m = $223.9m

Now to strip out inter year tax effects, I calculate tax at 28% of gross profit, and net profit (the 72% left) is what shareholders get:

0.72 x $223.9m = $161.2 NPAT

However, if you go to page 121 you will see expenses for the year include 'management fees, platform costs and non-capitalized project related costs, professional services and and other expenses of $11.4m all related to the now dissolved GGE fund together with $35m of restructure costs.' I would argue that none of this will be required in future years, and consequently the effect of these $46.4m of extra expenses should be removed from normalized after tax profits.

So normalized MRP NPAT for FY2013 = $161.2m + 0.72($46.4m) = $194.6m

SNOOPY

[CJ]

2/ Add to that the equity accounted earnings in jointly controlled entities +$46.4m. I think this refers to the earnings from the entities used to invest in Chile and the USA with the now dissolved (march 2013)GGE fund. MRP retains these assets under a different structure, so I believe it is right to include these as part of 'normal' business.

However, if you go to page 121 you will see expenses for the year include 'management fees, platform costs and non-capitalized project related costs, professional services and and other expenses of $11.4m all related to the now dissolved GGE fund together with $35m of restructure costs.' I would argue that none of this will be required in future years, and consequently the effect of these $46.4m of extra expenses should be removed from normalized after tax profits.Aren't these the same thing and you just got the sign convention wrong the first time. My understading in they are still in the development stage so unlikely to be providing that much earnings.

I haven't followed everything else but assume that means you are overstated by 0.72($46.4m) = $33.4m

[Snoopy]

Aren't these the same thing and you just got the sign convention wrong the first time. My understanding in they are still in the development stage so unlikely to be providing that much earnings.

I haven't followed everything else but assume that means you are overstated by 0.72($46.4m) = $33.4m


Well spotted that $46.4m 'snap' CJ. It could just be a co-incidence, but what are the chances? Then again, one is listed under income and the other expenses and I am finding it hard to figure out how those two could be interchangeable.

The geothermal work in Chile is not producing any power. However that doesn't mean that MRP isn't earning any money from it. I had assumed MRP were involved for their development expertise and that is where the money is coming from. The geothermal plant in the US is I think up and working, but I am not sure about MRPs share of those profits.

SNOOPY

[Arbitrage]

Now that the issue has closed it will be interesting to see how high the demand from retail investors really was.

[Master98]

'Heavy' interest in Mighty River Power shares http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10881386

Have a education guess what's the issue price? I think will be $2.5 per piece.

[macduffy]

jesus, why would they list on a Friday, worst week day of the week as everyone is previously engaged or squaring their books away from the past week! far out, just keeps getting worse...

So? Perhaps the intention is to let the stock settle down without undue attention from day traders?

After all, it's billed as an issue for "Mums and Dads"!

:cool:

[Tyro]

Is there life after IPO?

[chad321]

I hope so personally. Possibly to do with investing with them ;)

[Corporate]

Wait for a bad day in world markets and the IPO pice will be tested. Overpriced float in my view.

[Grimy]

Wait for a bad day in world markets and the IPO pice will be tested. Overpriced float in my view.

As a buyer I would have liked the entry price to have been lower, but wait for a bad day overseas and lots of companies share price of a couple of weeks back will be tested. It's just that most have been around a lot longer than MRP and have had a good long run up to current levels so can stand a bit of a correction.

[waikare]

At the time of promoting the IPO there was the mention of bonus shares, are these still on offer, or were just part of the sales pitch, now no longer an option...........

[CJ]

At the time of promoting the IPO there was the mention of bonus shares, are these still on offer, or were just part of the sales pitch, now no longer an option...........For those (resident investors that invested in the IPO, they will get an additional share for every 25 (or was it 20) shares held for 2 years.

[Jay]

It is 25 CJ

[robbo24]

I see $2.49 was cracked today - interesting.

[fungus pudding]

Can't wait to see the panickers start fleeing now! You buying later PTC? ;)

We're all doomed!

[fungus pudding]

SELL SELL SELL!

I'm just interested to see the psychology of all these newbies in the share game when their investment starts drawing red ink...

Labour and the Kermit party will let you know soon.

[Banksie]

SELL SELL SELL!

I'm just interested to see the psychology of all these newbies in the share game when their investment starts drawing red ink...

I am standing on the window ledge.

[Banksie]

I am standing on the window ledge.


Granted my office is on the ground floor ;)

[glasszon]

So much for IPO underpricing, good luck to all the long term holder out there.

[fungus pudding]

I am standing on the window ledge.

Let go of your laptop before you jump - might be worth more than the shares.

[Corporate]

The buy side is looking thin. Good luck all.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Moosie 900 I might reinstate my buy order at $2.00

[BlackCross]

Michael Milne, an investment adviser at Craigs Investment Partners, expects the shares to rise modestly over the next few weeks as index tracking institutional investors buy into Mighty River Power to rebalance their portfolios.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

BlackCross are you sure it was not them propping it up last week

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Moosie 900 75cents close to the election next year when the Maoris want 4cents per Cubic Metre royalty for every Cubic Metre of water flowing out of lake Taupo. Remember John Key gave them the lake & control over it.

[CJ]

Cubic metre for a cubic metre? Does that mean it's a cubic metre6
Yes - Maori have a Treaty claim in the the 4th, 5th and 6th dimensions just incase they are actually discovered, they can get a royalty.

[GR8DAY]

Moosie 900 75cents close to the election next year when the Maoris want 4cents per Cubic Metre royalty for every Cubic Metre of water flowing out of lake Taupo. Remember John Key gave them the lake & control over it.


JOHN KEY AND HIS BUNCH OF CAPITALIST CRONIES NEVER OWNED IT IN THE FIRST PLACE BRO'..............so how could he give it (back) to Tangata whenua??

[fungus pudding]

JOHN KEY AND HIS BUNCH OF CAPITALIST CRONIES NEVER OWNED IT IN THE FIRST PLACE BRO'..............so how could he give it (back) to Tangata whenua??

In a large bucket?

[Dworsf01]

In a large bucket?

It's a politician's job to promise things that they can't deliver and give away things they don't own..

[bohemian]

Your water wouldn't have the same value nor would you have a quality of life that you enjoy if Michael Farraday had not discovered electromagnetism. Time his decendants demanded a royality from Tangata whenua.

[thedigger]

If the maoris want to get lucky they need to start buying now. If those top few thinking some water right claim is going to be manor from heaven had better start to rething some new scheme.....

[fungus pudding]

Your water wouldn't have the same value nor would you have a quality of life that you enjoy if Michael Farraday had not discovered electromagnetism. Time his decendants demanded a royality from Tangata whenua.

What about Daniel Palmolive's descendants, or was it Bobby Lux, who invented soap?

[Lizard]

Has anyone managed to find the discount rate which is used to value the generation assets based on future earnings? I had a quick look through the prospectus and last annual/interim reports, but couldn't find the rate used.

Rightly, or wrongly, I would have thought that given the main asset on the balance sheet is the value of generation assets and that the value of these is re-calculated and adjusted annually and based on future earnings, then I would have thought the book value could have been a fair measure of value. However, it would need to be considered in light of the discount rate used - and I haven't been able to find it (only the sensitivity analysis).

(Sorry if this has been covered elsewhere - I haven't read the whole thread)

[Stu]

Tangaroa (http://kupu.maori.nz/ShowKupu.aspx?kupu=457)
God of the sea, rivers, lakes and all that live within them



Has anyone alerted Tangaroa that this upstart Iwi is pulling a fast one by claiming his property? Surely this should be a direct negotiation between MRP and Tangaroa's legal team.

[fungus pudding]

Amusing but incorrect. Soap predates both by a considerable margin.

Flintstone and Rubble then?

[macduffy]

Has anyone managed to find the discount rate which is used to value the generation assets based on future earnings? I had a quick look through the prospectus and last annual/interim reports, but couldn't find the rate used.

Rightly, or wrongly, I would have thought that given the main asset on the balance sheet is the value of generation assets and that the value of these is re-calculated and adjusted annually and based on future earnings, then I would have thought the book value could have been a fair measure of value. However, it would need to be considered in light of the discount rate used - and I haven't been able to find it (only the sensitivity analysis).

(Sorry if this has been covered elsewhere - I haven't read the whole thread)

Hi Lizard.

Good to see some serious analysis of this company! No, I havn't discovered the discount rate either. A rather important piece of info in attempting to value MRP, as you have indicated.

[_Michael]

Hi Lizard.

Good to see some serious analysis of this company! No, I havn't discovered the discount rate either. A rather important piece of info in attempting to value MRP, as you have indicated.

True for the generation business Lizard but they also have retail business that is capex light

[Lizard]

True for the generation business Lizard but they also have retail business that is capex light

Thanks, good point - although they don't seem to give enough segmental analysis to help me separate retail from generation.

[Snow Leopard]

Thanks, good point - although they don't seem to give enough segmental analysis to help me separate retail from generation.

Could be one of those "Sod it, where's the Sauvignon?" moments.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[janner]

If the maoris want to get lucky they need to start buying now. If those top few thinking some water right claim is going to be manor from heaven had better start to rething some new scheme.....

Manors from heaven are what most maoris are looking for..

Mana is what they need to learn about.. Then start to earn some..

[janner]

Thanks, good point - although they don't seem to give enough segmental analysis to help me separate retail from generation.

Why should they ??.. They are still in Public service mode..

[glasszon]

Looks like the thread got completely derailed, back on topic about MRP share price please? :p

Right now MRP have broke through the issue price several times already, but it looks like there are very strong resistance to any downward movement. Is this due to people's psychology (I am not selling for a loss!) or because someone wanted to defend the price?

[macduffy]

Looks like the thread got completely derailed, back on topic about MRP share price please? :p

Right now MRP have broke through the issue price several times already, but it looks like there are very strong resistance to any downward movement. Is this due to people's psychology (I am not selling for a loss!) or because someone wanted to defend the price?

The title of the thread is actually "Who's in for the Mighty River Power float". Of course, its since evolved into debate on the shareprice, an important influencer of which is the value that investors assess for the company. I suspect that as time goes on this will become more important as instos and other professional investors delve deeper into the subject. Room for all approaches though, including speculation on what the SP might do today. No guesses from me!

:)

[777]

May be this the thread you want to be on glasszon.

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9157-MIGHTY-RIVER-POWER-Issue-Price

[brevos]

Does anyone know when the NZX indices are revised and MRP will be included?

[Aaron]

Has anyone managed to find the discount rate which is used to value the generation assets based on future earnings? I had a quick look through the prospectus and last annual/interim reports, but couldn't find the rate used.

I'll show my ignorance but if the company was valued at $3billion then working backwards from a 2012 EBIT of 257,246,000 you get roughly 8.5% or am I just way off in my understanding of the question.
Price to book value(2012) is almost 1:1 maybe we have paid a fair price after all.

[CJ]

I'll show my ignorance but if the company was valued at $3billion then working backwards from a 2012 EBIT of 257,246,000 you get roughly 8.5% or am I just way off in my understanding of the question.
Price to book value(2012) is almost 1:1 maybe we have paid a fair price after all.Or attacking it another way, what is the regulated return that Vector, AIA can earn - in the 8% range isn't it.

[Banksie]

When the cycle reverses MRP might have its day; right now, its at the bottom of most lists!

Except MorningStar's who give this a target price of 2.70.

[Snow Leopard]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10885260

Written by a savvy investor? NOT! ... If the price was 2.80 the exact some would be written but with a completely different angle.

Just goes to show what constitutes "news" in NZ ... an entire opinion piece written around a share price at a meaningless point in time. Looking forward to the same waffle in a few months time.

Belge, you have spent too much time in discussion with MvT.

Early days for the MRP share price yet.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Banksie]

Except MorningStar's who give this a target price of 2.70.

Yeah, yeah I know, don't trust anything from MorningStar ;). I was just shocked - it is the first time I have seen them value a stock higher than the SP. (Same day they put a $5 price tag on RYM).

[CJ]

In the current uptrending market MRP is underperforming and investors realise that. Per Google, the NZ50G is down 0.8% over the period so being up 4c (1.6%) is actually doing quite well.

And compared to its industry, also holding its own: https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1369197960000&chddm=1043&chls=IntervalBasedLine&cmpto=NZE:CEN;NZE:TPW;NZE:VCT;NZE:IFT&cmptdms=0;0;0;0&q=NZE:MRP&ntsp=0&ei=lBmcUdiwAo6qkgXpywE

[ratkin]

have you all had confirmation of your holdings yet? I have heard nothing

[macduffy]

have you all had confirmation of your holdings yet? I have heard nothing

Yes, confirmation received dated 14 May. Probably not relevant but I did my appn the old-fashioned paper way!

[ratkin]

Yes, confirmation received dated 14 May. Probably not relevant but I did my appn the old-fashioned paper way!

is there anywhere i can check online?

[fungus pudding]

is there anywhere i can check online?

Check on computershare.

[ratkin]

Check on computershare.

Thx , should of known that , turns out i got most i applied for (sadly) strange didnt recieve a letter though

[iceman]

Thx , should of known that , turns out i got most i applied for (sadly) strange didnt recieve a letter though

Same here ratkin. We received a letter for our 4 children but neither my wife or I received nothing. We've all been allocated shares though ! Obviously some hickup with the paperwork process.

[fungus pudding]

Same here ratkin. We received a letter for our 4 children but neither my wife or I received nothing. We've all been allocated shares though ! Obviously some hickup with the paperwork process.

Check your junk emails.

[iceman]

Check your junk emails.

I received them by good old NZ Post. Not concerned as I note on Computershare that all of us recceived our shares.

[winner69]

So it did all go plan .... John doing well executing the master plan he was put in to do (not the job most think they were voting for)

One day the masses will turn and he and his cronies will get their comeuppance
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/8712155/Wealthy-grabbed-big-MRP-share

[CJ]

One day the masses will turn and he and his cronies will get their comeuppance
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/8712155/Wealthy-grabbed-big-MRP-shareI just want to point out that those with more than $100k to invest in one share are allowed to have children, and therefore be a M&D investor.

Though having kids might make having a spare $100k a bit harder. To counter that, being a M&D investor, as opposed to Husband and ex-wife investors would increase that chance of a $100k investment as opposed to 2 $50k investments ;)

[Balance]

So it did all go plan .... John doing well executing the master plan he was put in to do (not the job most think they were voting for)

One day the masses will turn and he and his cronies will get their comeuppance
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/8712155/Wealthy-grabbed-big-MRP-share

Sorry, W69 - cannot agree with you there.

It is more a function of NZers' propensity to put almost all their monies into properties which results in those who are able to invest in shares doing it in volume.

Sad but a fact of New Zealand life.

The likes of Blue Chip Financial Services and the Finance companies did away with nearly $5 billion of depositors' funds - that could have bought MRP 3 times .

[fungus pudding]

So it did all go plan .... John doing well executing the master plan he was put in to do (not the job most think they were voting for)

One day the masses will turn and he and his cronies will get their comeuppance
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/8712155/Wealthy-grabbed-big-MRP-share

Please tell us how many NZ residents who applied for shares missed out? Admittedly those who applied for large numbers were scaled back a bit, but otherwise- what's the problem? Take no notice of that paranoid little tosspot, Russel Norman, who can't shake of his communist background and finds private ownership of anything at all abhorrent.

[CJ]

Please tell us how many NZ residents who applied for shares missed out? Exactly. Small ivnestors got all they wanted. It is 'Keys Friends' who got scaled.

[QOH]

Do hope someone can point out to Russell Norman, how great it is that the "mum and dad investors",
whom he claims missed out on getting MRP shares , have saved their money with the price now being below the issue price.

[kiwitrev]

I'm not a holder so don't have a biased view. However it's pretty simple this business of how many shares were allocated to Mum and Dad investors. Of the 400,000 odd registrations only 112,000odd received shares. Plainly put only 112k got them because that's all that applied, a 100% take up. If 200,000 or 400,000 applied they would have got an allocation and the big boys scaled back further. Anyone with half a brain can work that out (maybe that's what qualifies me).

[Beagle]

Well, tut, tut, we are now clearly below the float price...what a surprise... NOT.

I wonder how long before the insto stop's supporting this nonsense and we see the real price...less than $2 within 18 months is my prediction.
Talk about being sold a PUP, dunno how they got away with it, maybe we need another enquiry LOL.

[Arbroath]

Well, tut, tut, we are now clearly below the float price...what a surprise... NOT.

I wonder how long before the insto stop's supporting this nonsense and we see the real price...less than $2 within 18 months is my prediction.
Talk about being sold a PUP, dunno how they got away with it, maybe we need another enquiry LOL.


I'd say if MRP is $2.20-2.30 in August there might be a few issues with the Meridian float

[troyvdh]

Roger giday...Like a lot of us ...the true value of MRP is indeed somewhat obscure...re the insto's...are they not bound by what ever to have a certain percentage invested blah balh.
Indeed the majority of buyers appeared to have been "well healed".
Why do you consider this IPO a "pup" ?
In some ways I share your views for my own reasons...but what are yours.
Cheers troy.
No holdings .CEN about 8k

[Minerbarejet]

[QUOTE=Roger;4083815 dunno how they got away with it, maybe we need another enquiry LOL.[/QUOTE]
Yes, ---------WINSTON!!!! Get your whinebox.:)

[bull....]

election time - key made millions for the public selling mighty river at 2.50 and now he has joined forces with winston peters to form a govt and as nz first condition he is buying mighty river back at 1.70 lol what a trader sell high buy low

[troyvdh]

...now lets not hold back....tell it how it is....

[fungus pudding]

election time - key made millions for the public selling mighty river at 2.50 and now he has joined forces with winston peters to form a govt and as nz first condition he is buying mighty river back at 1.70 lol what a trader sell high buy low

I think Winston first will settle for a promise not to sell anymore 'family silver' which National will readily agree to, having already completed their asset sale program. That will give Winnie enough to crow about, along with a portfolio for Winston, a few other baubles of office that do not matter to him, and the promise of a knighthood and bingo - one new coalition govt. formed.

[Beagle]

Roger giday...Like a lot of us ...the true value of MRP is indeed somewhat obscure...re the insto's...are they not bound by what ever to have a certain percentage invested blah balh.
Indeed the majority of buyers appeared to have been "well healed".
Why do you consider this IPO a "pup" ?
In some ways I share your views for my own reasons...but what are yours.
Cheers troy.
No holdings .CEN about 8k

NBR ran an article a while back comparing Contact with MRP with the conclusion that MRP didn't compare favourably at all, was said in more P.C. terms than that. The PE is too high for a zero growth company facing issues with its major customer, the smelter, and possible regulatory issues, (Labour / Greens future moves).
Next years forecasts look unrealistic in my opinion and are probably unattainable. Lake Taupo was recently at multi year lows due to a one in 70 year drought, historical profits don't compare well with forecasted profit, sorry it just didn't add up...but was made to look like it did, hence the use of the classic phrase "sold a pup".
Oh I nearly forgot, that's all before you take into account that there's plenty more supply of power stock coming to the market and lets not forget that Contact have just finished a multi year capital works programme putting about $2 billion of new generation capacity in place...so there's plenty of generation to supply a zero growth market where electricity is more and more unaffordable for your average family who are struggling to afford their winter power bills because the price has gone up about 70% in real terms in the last decade.

With those market dynamics who would invest in a company on a high price earnings ratio ? Lets get real, the price was jacked up by overseas insto demand and its was never worth $2.50 in the first place.

[Baa_Baa]

Would this thread die if all the posters who don't own MRP and don't intend to own it, ceased dredging up endless prognosticative self imagined justification for why they didn't buy it and still don't intend to buy it? Just asking.

[winner69]

Suppose it would baa baa as the greens have lead us to believe that the rich duded own most with only a hundred thousand mums and dads only owing small parcels .....both groups not likely to be posters here.

But then again it is interesting to see what happens. Moose for instance w going to study investor behaviour when virgin punters saw the sure thing losing them money ....we're they going to panic or just hold tight.

Maybe many of that large % that did not even have cans don't even know how to sell ....maybe they don't even look at the share price to see what's going on

[Tyro]

Some of us are in the money. Wouldn't it be nice if those who don't own MRP and don't intend to own it would go off and play by themselves, and leave the rest of us to manage our investments?



Would this thread die if all the posters who don't own MRP and don't intend to own it, ceased dredging up endless prognosticative self imagined justification for why they didn't buy it and still don't intend to buy it? Just asking.

[winner69]

Sorry for contaminating this thread tyro .....I don't think I'll ever own MRP so to comply with your wishes I will refrain from posting anything on this thread ever again

Hope your investment in MRP goes well and enjoy the conversation with your fellow investors

Cheers

[Bjauck]

I own a small parcel of MRP and I for one welcome the input of all, whether or not they own any MRP. It is just as useful for Sharetrader to receive the input of non share holders, so that the reasons why they are NON-shareholders can be aired. Who knows, at the end of any constructive discussion they may become holders or we may decide to quit...

As for the MRP price, I consider that the Labreens successfully put considerable kibosh on the price the Taxpayer received for assets that our democratically elected government had decided to sell. They have since tried to argue that National party cronies and the wealthy bogeymen and foreigners have profited at the expense of these same taxpayers. Maybe, with the SP now below issue price, there will be a Labreen press release thanking these same investors?...coupled with an apology for their part in seeing to it that the taxpayer got as poor a price as Labreen threatened policy could achieve?

[Hoop]

Some of us are in the money. Wouldn't it be nice if those who don't own MRP and don't intend to own it would go off and play by themselves, and leave the rest of us to manage our investments?


Sorry for contaminating this thread tyro .....I don't think I'll ever own MRP so to comply with your wishes I will refrain from posting anything on this thread ever again

Hope your investment in MRP goes well and enjoy the conversation with your fellow investors

Cheers

Public censoring a 8946 Legend on ST by a Junior newbie member of 28 posts seems a bit over the top don't you think Tyro ...

Back in the good "ol" days that would've earned you a good spanking and sent to you bedroom for the rest of the night without dinner.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Baa Baa & Tyro I own a small holding in this company, & I think it is over valued. I am waiting hoping for a Dreamer like you to buy it off me at a ridiculous Price. I think it is well over valued & waiting to buy more at a more realistic price or sell what I hold to some idiot IMHO. Do you want only posts supporting this share so you can make a quick profit. If you get what you want you will never learn to think realistically about shares. Winner 69 could give you advice after more than 12 years of investing. And I am another one that thinks it is over valued & needs to fall quite a lot before I increase my Holding.

[Minerbarejet]

As an interested and innocent bystander watching and waiting for MR.P to drop to a level that I may consider purchasing same I find all the inputs in this forum to be of great benefit in making choices. That is what it is all about - choice. Your choice to choose Mr P or any other stock, your choice to buy or sell and when, your choice to read or not read posts, your choice to comment on same for or against. Its a democratic right and freedom of speech that we thankfully have in this country. Buying shares is not compulsory either (like homosexuality) but if you do its your choice and with it comes responsibility. All persons are only temporary custodians of everything they have and in some cases this includes their brains.

Which is why I had half a mind to give you a piece of it.:)
Take all this with a grain of NaCl
Noah Fence



A dark horse can be a fair cow.

[BIRMANBOY]

MBJ..I'm so confused ...what do I do if I'm a responsible homosexual temporarily without brains considering leaving this country. Yours truly, salty obsessive compulsive.
As an interested and innocent bystander watching and waiting for MR.P to drop to a level that I may consider purchasing same I find all the inputs in this forum to be of great benefit in making choices. That is what it is all about - choice. Your choice to choose Mr P or any other stock, your choice to buy or sell and when, your choice to read or not read posts, your choice to comment on same for or against. Its a democratic right and freedom of speech that we thankfully have in this country. Buying shares is not compulsory either (like homosexuality) but if you do its your choice and with it comes responsibility. All persons are only temporary custodians of everything they have and in some cases this includes their brains.

Which is why I had half a mind to give you a piece of it.:)
Take all this with a grain of NaCl
Noah Fence



A dark horse can be a fair cow.

[Xerof]

I see the political saboteurs of this issue have paid the price in the polls tonight. National could govern alone if you believe the poll.

should support the price if it ever actually had an influence

anyway, I don't own any of these, so I shouldn't even be making a comment, but it could be because I'm currently feeling a little queer.......

[boysy]

Polls on the two news channels contradicting each others I don't think the story is as cut and dry as some seem to believe it is

[Minerbarejet]

MBJ..I'm so confused ...what do I do if I'm a responsible homosexual temporarily without brains considering leaving this country. Yours truly, salty obsessive compulsive.

Stay by all means- nobody will hold it against you - buy a few MR.P perhaps but I'd wait until the smelter is sorted. Your choice.
nacl :)

[CJ]

Polls on the two news channels contradicting each others I don't think the story is as cut and dry as some seem to believe it isboth show National will win the next election. Still not seeing a swing away from National - they are consistently around 45% or above.

[fungus pudding]

both show National will win the next election. Still not seeing a swing away from National - they are consistently around 45% or above.

Yeah, and they'll pick up a bit in the next few months.

[robbo24]

All else equal those polls should ease a bit of the potential regulatory worries and hopefully MRP (and CEN etc) should head north a bit on Monday.

That and the forecast divvies..

[ratkin]

All else equal those polls should ease a bit of the potential regulatory worries and hopefully MRP (and CEN etc) should head north a bit on Monday.

Yeah i wouldnt worry to much about labour and the greens , they looking very unelectable at the moment, they have shot themselves in the foot with their spoiling tactics

[CJ]

Yeah, and they'll pick up a bit in the next few months.not necessarily. 45% sounds about right for national - it's surprising the left hasn't been able to damage them mid term.

There problem is the lack of a centre political party - NZ First and conservatives would both work but are led by ..... Why hasn't Duune got any support? Act is dead but they will naturally go to national. Maori party are not a natural centre of right party.

I still put the next election 50:50 with a 60% chance (down from 80% as I don't think Greens numbers will grow much bigger) they will implement NzPower as planned. Light handed regulation, esp if genisis is still 100% own should be enough.

[winner69]

May I respectably suggest that we keep political discussion off this thread .....remember tyro wants to manage his investment in MRP and not talk politics.

Ok guys ....just for tyro can we just 'go and play with ourselves' somewhere else

[CJ]

Unfortunately with NZPower, the two are linked - wish they weren't. I tried to link the politics back to MRP ;)

Disc: hold all the listed power generators! :0

[winner69]

Unfortunately with NZPower, the two are linked - wish they weren't. I tried to link the politics back to MRP ;)

Disc: hold all the listed power generators! :0

Agree CJ - one of the fundamental drivers of how these companies perform eh .... and as such the driver of share prices to some extent.

So to 'manage my investment in MRP' tyro really needs to understand what this NZ Power really means

[skid]

After the affect that the Labor-green policy had on the MRP float--you want us to leave politics out of the equation??

[Hoop]

After the affect that the Labor-green policy had on the MRP float--you want us to leave politics out of the equation??

We don't.....Tyro and his group want to censor the thread to eliminate all negative factors ..(us who say why we didn't buy into MRP and politics (labourgreens)) ...

no negative factors the price will rise ...eh?

[Billy Boy]

I'd wait until the smelter is sorted. Your choice.
nacl :)
It's generally excepted in the South, that the smelter will close.
Chinese smelters will replace it. and they have heaps of borxite.
So what to do with the buildings ???
and remember the extra generating capacity coming on stream.
BB

[whatsup]

After the affect that the Labor-green policy had on the MRP float--you want us to leave politics out of the equation??


.44 !!!!!!!!!

[glasszon]

2.42 now, good luck to all remaining holders for MRP.

[bull....]

who cares if it drops another 30% if you hold long term say 10 years or more shares alweays perform , so my financial advisor told me lol

[Billy Boy]

MRP could be a very good Coy....
I only wish the Govt would sell their 51% holding. Then we have a good
growth coy. Look out trust pwr. good by contact...
BB

[glasszon]

who cares if it drops another 30% if you hold long term say 10 years or more shares alweays perform , so my financial advisor told me lol

I would agree normally, but in this case you are also looking at the lottery to see who get elected in the next election. Imagine what happens to MRP share price if Labour/Greens pulls out a surprise win.

Disc: Just got rid of my last MRP position, it is proving far too volatile for my liking. I still want to sleep at night you know.:p

[Goldstein]

Any of you guys tried to catch a falling knife with this one?

It would be interesting if the SP hit $2.25 as it might trigger a bunch of stop losses around the place.

[whatsup]

I hope the smart ones stag'ed this puppy and fled into the ether. Even then, IRD will soon be on to them for profits!

Moosie, the IRD will not as there would be so little tax due that they wont bother --.15 max profit x by 33% tax x by 5000 shares, not the best use of their time!

[glasszon]

2.38 now, anyone know what might have driven this move? Down 3.6% so far in the day and no major news that would have impacted MRP.

[glasszon]

Market is selling off right now, Nikkei down another 2.5%. Everyone is booking profits. Batten down the hatches!

True, but other stocks in NZ are not nearly affected as much.

[QOH]

Perhaps the "moms and dads " are panicking.
It is a pity if their first foray into the sharemarket ends in tears for them.
I don't see any point of selling out of MRP now, even though it's starting to get a bit ugly
out there everywhere.






.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Keep it coming down. The quicker the better so it reaches my Buy order

[Toasty]

Keep it coming down. The quicker the better so it reaches my Buy order

When are you thinking of getting in PTC? The yield is starting to look quite appealing as we get down closer to $2.

[Anna Naum]

Yield depends on your believe in the forecast dividend payout......which depends on who you think wins the next election!!

[Aaron]

I am guessing all the mum and dads(who thought it was going to be some sort of windfall) and overly greedy staggers are cutting their losses. Either that or labgreens have improved in the polls. I guess this is when TA might be useful as it might give an idea about price direction. If you think fair value was at $2.50 then it is only a matter of waiting for sentiment to bottom out before buying more/back in. Unless like me you bought and held and aren't that keen on increasing exposure to NZ generators in light of CEN holdings and up and coming Meridian float and LabGreen proposals. maybe if there is some genuine panic selling and prices go well below what I might consider good value. Prefer if it was over $2.50 but an opportunity for others to enjoy my misery if it keeps dropping for those who enjoy a bit of schadenfreude.

[Anna Naum]

I laugh at how on the day of listing a number of politicians and reporters suggested that the Investment banks etc had done such a great job of pricing the stock correctly....just a few weeks later and I wonder how good a job everyone thinks they did.....other than for the govt (which might suggest is for all of us).

[Statistically Deviant]

Seems the voting machine is in full flurry today. Some skittish investors. But every transaction has a seller and buyer. Who is getting the most out of the transactions? Time will tell.

I am getting sick of the dingo going on about low uptake by 'ma and pa'. He needs to look in the mirror.

[CJ]

Today's acknowledgement that companies trusts and investment institutions were able to buy shares in the retail offer "is a further nail in the coffin of National's myth that it was selling shares to ordinary Kiwi 'mums and dads'," Green Party Co-leader Russel Norman said.http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10886490
My Trust owned company purchased shares through a nominee account.

I confirm that I am a Dad and that Mum, Dad and the kids are all beneficiaries of said trust.

Though I must admit, it is a sneaky way for institutions to get in on the loyalty bonus. Once scaling was expected to be minimal, I wonder how many funds switched the pool they were applying under.

[Bjauck]

The investment world is a a dynamic place. At the time MRP may have been priced right but since then Bernanke has possibly hinted that Uncle Sam may take off Santa's outfit plus China has issued some figures.

I don't think the Labreen Parties will be upset if new investors have a nasty experience with MRP. I don't think a broad share-owning democracy would be particularly good for Left wing parties. Look at the UK experience: Thatcherite privatisations created more share holders and aspiring capitalists and helped break down some of the old "us and them" class barriers despite greater disparity of wealth. Old Socialist Labour morphed into into New Centrist Labour.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Toasty read the earlier posts

[Corporate]

Oh dear. I know a couple of professional people who remortgage the house to free up cash to buy MRP. These people had never purchased shares before and got sucked into the 'this is a no-brainer
investment' without looking at the numbers.

[Banksie]

Oh dear. I know a couple of professional people who remortgage the house to free up cash to buy MRP. These people had never purchased shares before and got sucked into the 'this is a no-brainer
investment' without looking at the numbers.

I saw a similar comment on one of the other threads. I wonder who was responsible for this type of investment advice? I think investor education program needs to be stepped up a little before the next float.

[iceman]

A bit of an over reaction aided by stupid and headline grabbing media commentary. Hopefully most of the Mum & Dad investors are like myself and not worried about short term SP movements of MRP. If they do, hopefully any short term fears will be alleviated with steady dividend stream and the bonus shares.

[Banksie]

Not sure if this has already been posted but I thought Tim Hunter wrote a pretty good article highlighting some big issues related to your comment:
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/8714006/Sell-buy-conflict-clearly-stinks

Thanks turmeric, thought provoking article on the various conflicts of interest.

[iceman]

somehow I don't think those mortgaging the house to buy a "sureshot" electricity company dont think about dividends and bonus schemes...

I think a very small minority of ma & pa "mortgaged the house" to buy these shares. I suspect much more of them invested small amounts of money that they could easily afford and will have the shares stashed away in the bottom drawer for the next couple of years

[RRR]

I think buying a house in Auckland for $800k for 500m2 is riskier than investing the same amount in MRP shares! I choose to invest much smaller amount in MRP and it is a long term investment for me.

[Major von Tempsky]

I'm glad I followed Buffett's advice and stayed out :-)

[Beagle]

I think buying a house in Auckland for $800k for 500m2 is riskier than investing the same amount in MRP shares! I choose to invest much smaller amount in MRP and it is a long term investment for me.

There's ongoing strong demand for the most popular city in N.Z. whereas if Labour / Greens and Rio Tinto have their way...

[Balance]

I think buying a house in Auckland for $800k for 500m2 is riskier than investing the same amount in MRP shares! I choose to invest much smaller amount in MRP and it is a long term investment for me.

Heard from a broker that some investors are having to sell as they have been using margin - as price drops, triggers margin calls.

Ouch!

[Minerbarejet]

Suppose the longer this goes on the more people will be disenchanted with shares in anything - not a good look for getting new investors on board.

:) Our employees in Wgtn have managed to extract a large amount of cash for something we already owned. Why dont they become share traders like us and buy them all back at 2.37, keep the change and then they could flog them all off again when everyone has forgotten about it after the next election. :)

[Anna Naum]

Suppose the longer this goes on the more people will be disenchanted with shares in anything - not a good look for getting new investors on board.

:) Our employees in Wgtn have managed to extract a large amount of cash for something we already owned. Why dont they become share traders like us and buy them all back at 2.37, keep the change and then they could flog them all off again when everyone has forgotten about it after the next election. :)

Because they can not buy any shares without making a full takeover bid. Also they may still need a lower price to break-even....they paid A LOT in fees away!!

[CJ]

Because they can not buy any shares without making a full takeover bid. Also they may still need a lower price to break-even....they paid A LOT in fees away!!I'm sure they could arrange a law change to cover off that issue. The float in the first place needed a few laws to be changed, a court case re the Treaty, and vague promises to the electorate.

[glasszon]

I'm sure they could arrange a law change to cover off that issue. The float in the first place needed a few laws to be changed, a court case re the Treaty, and vague promises to the electorate.

Might as well make a law change to do a compulsory repurchase at 2 dollars :p

[CJ]

Might as well make a law change to do a compulsory repurchase at 2 dollars :pThats Peters/NZ Firsts election policy.

[ENP]

Funny all the people saying "I bought it for the long term" are all getting stressed out after two weeks because it has gone below the IPO price.

Did people really expect to make a killing paying 27 times earnings for a company growing at less than 5% per year in an industry that is growing less than 2% per year?

[Frostwind]

Let's see, long term holding for a company which:
- is a utility and is trading at growth stock valuation
- has massive policy risks
- over optimistic on their profit forecasts and have to folk out over 100% of their profit to make their dividend looks remotely attractive
- in an industry that's likely to be flat/shrink
- subject to the weather

I mean surely, there are better alternatives out there at these prices?

Btw, hi to everyone on this forum as this is my first post :)

[troyvdh]

Wecome frostwind....prepare to receive some flack ...cheers.....

PS...have you read a few pages back.

[Xerof]

With a nic like frostwind, he/she will be accustomed to a chilly reception troy:cool:

[shambles]

Welcome Frostwind

[fish]

Let's see, long term holding for a company which:
- is a utility and is trading at growth stock valuation
- has massive policy risks
- over optimistic on their profit forecasts and have to folk out over 100% of their profit to make their dividend looks remotely attractive
- in an industry that's likely to be flat/shrink
- subject to the weather

I mean surely, there are better alternatives out there at these prices?

Btw, hi to everyone on this forum as this is my first post :)

Fully agree with these statements of risk.
We havnt see the full effect of the weather yet as winter begins and lake taupo levels are low.
Long range forecast looks dry for taupo and as cold sets in we should see a surge in demand.MRP might have to pay the price for being nearly 2/3 reliant on the taupo/Waikato system

[Jasemc]

When they enter nzx50 will that affect the sp?

[skid]

Nevertheless--anything is a good value at the right price--when would MRP become a bargain?

[bunter]

Nevertheless--anything is a good value at the right price--when would MRP become a bargain?

My primitive DCF model says it's a good buy right now - undervalued relative to Contact and Vector.
The MRP directors are buying now on-market.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

bunter Are the MRP directors just trying to slow the fall. Eventually IMHO they will run out of money.

[CJ]

bunter Are the MRP directors just trying to slow the fall. Eventually IMHO they will run out of money.They are piddly investments so no chance in stopping the fall. $ amount is probably just the increase in annual directors fee now that it is a public company.

[Jaa]

My primitive DCF model says it's a good buy right now - undervalued relative to Contact and Vector.
The MRP directors are buying now on-market.

Vector is a completely different business to MRP. Its peers are CEN and TPW.

As I have said before economic growth has decoupled from electricity growth for the first time since electricity became a mass market commodity. If this continues to hold during a sustained economic recovery this seriously undermines the historical case for investing in electricity generators.

That electricity demand will continue to fall, stagnant or even increase less than economic growth is a big little understood risk.

[brevos]

Any ideas on when MRP will be added to the various indices and we might see a wee pop in the SP?

[winner69]

isn't it sad how these indices make instos buy shares .... little hope for the world really eh

[sideline]

Any ideas on when MRP will be added to the various indices and we might see a wee pop in the SP?

24 June is the date

[Hoop]

isn't it sad how these indices make instos buy shares .... little hope for the world really eh

....and when nothing else works and you have to rely on hope........

[thedigger]

Interesting current share price " I did say after the 3rd week it would drop" Lol.

[JimHickey]

Pretty sure it wont be till the third friday of july.

[Frostwind]

Indicies adding normally add 2% or so to the price in the week prior to it, however the gains will sometimes vanish within a very short span of time, but yes dumb money are great to unload on, good luck :)

[chad321]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10888511

[sideline]

Pretty sure it wont be till the third friday of july.

Why, there is a quarterly index review this Friday, 7 June. Announcement of changes to indexes
would be Wednesday 12 June and rebalancing after close on Friday 21 June.
I could not find any rule that would exclude MRP from being eligible.

Did you? (Well, maybe the liquidity calculation over 6 months, however the NZX can
consider shorter periods if satisfied that the liquidity is ok).

[Goldstein]

I still fail to understand the government's rationale for selling this. A divvy of 12c is 5%. So in essence the government is forgoing half of this (2.5%) for a lump sum of $1.5b. What would it cost the government to just raise this money offshore?

Also aren't they selling it at the wrong time? In a recession and with doubts over the Aluminium smelter.

Renewable energy is worth a lot more than fossil fuel. See http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/23/net-us-facebook-datacenter-idUSBRE93M10A20130423 which shows Facebook's interest in running its data centres off 25% renewables. Why doesn't the govt approach FB/Google etc. Might have to get another cable to Sydney first.

I just wouldn't be selling these assets at the moment.

[janner]

What would it cost the government to just raise this money offshore?

Offshore interest !!..

Plus greater ( more than we already have ) offshore control..

[BlackCross]

"I just wouldn't be selling these assets at the moment."

You (New Zealand) shouldn't be selling these assets at anytime. Just look at the UK's energy industry now that most of it has been sold off. The majority of it is in the hands of overseas investors and only today it was announced that UK consumers are now paying far more for their energy than anywhere else in Europe. Mind you, at least the UK government priced the shares so that investors made a profit, unlike the knob heads here with their Micky Mouse approach to privatisation. I suspect the only beneficiaries in these sell offs will be Key's city slicker mates (both here and overseas) plus a number of directors who'll be paid a shed load more for doing basically the same thing they were doing before privatisation. Consumers will almost certainly lose out in the long run, that's for sure. And shareholders? Well they may well well be in for a pretty long wait to see a return.

[iceman]

""You (New Zealand) shouldn't be selling these assets at anytime."
"Mind you, at least the UK government priced the shares so that investors made a profit, unlike the knob heads here with their Micky Mouse approach to privatisation."

BlackCross I don't understand your argument. You don't agree with selling but then suggest the Government should sell cheap if they sell, so private investors can make money, as long as they are not "Key's mates", which in itself is a boring and overused opposition slogan. I think the Government got MRP away on reasonable terms and that it was priced fairly for both investors and sellers. But like gay marriage, I think this policy generates heat while its happening and then just dies a slow death and noone will remember come the next election !

[CJ]

I still fail to understand the government's rationale for selling this. A divvy of 12c is 5%. So in essence the government is forgoing half of this (2.5%) for a lump sum of $1.5b. What would it cost the government to just raise this money offshore?

Also aren't they selling it at the wrong time? In a recession and with doubts over the Aluminium smelter.

Renewable energy is worth a lot more than fossil fuel. See http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/23/net-us-facebook-datacenter-idUSBRE93M10A20130423 which shows Facebook's interest in running its data centres off 25% renewables. Why doesn't the govt approach FB/Google etc. Might have to get another cable to Sydney first.A few points:

Arguably you are right, they shouldn't have sold because they can borrow cheaper than the return on the shares. But, if our debt keeps going up, there is a risk the interest rate will also go up, for all the NZ debt. Add to that diversification, NZ has 3 SOE and is trying to reduce its share down to 50% in those three to be about 30% of the market - not getting out of the market completely. Add to that related economic benefits of invigorating the NZ stock exchange - when this was first announced, there hadn't been an IPO in ages, now they are flooding in so this argument is now watered down but was valid at the time.

mmm - I think they may have sold at the top and if it wasn't for the Greens/Labour proposal, they would have got even more. Just look at the share price now.

NZ is already predominantly renewables and you dont need govt ownership of those to encourage investment into NZ. On your thinking, maybe the Govt should have spent some of the $1.5Bit received on a second cable to encourage that investment - I am sure Rod Drury would agree.

[fungus pudding]

A few points:

Arguably you are right, they shouldn't have sold because they can borrow cheaper than the return on the shares. But, if our debt keeps going up, there is a risk the interest rate will also go up, for all the NZ debt. Add to that diversification, NZ has 3 SOE and is trying to reduce its share down to 50% in those three to be about 30% of the market - not getting out of the market completely. Add to that related economic benefits of invigorating the NZ stock exchange - when this was first announced, there hadn't been an IPO in ages, now they are flooding in so this argument is now watered down but was valid at the time.

mmm - I think they may have sold at the top and if it wasn't for the Greens/Labour proposal, they would have got even more. Just look at the share price now.



It's still the labour-green threat affecting the share price now.

[stanace]

It's still the labour-green threat affecting the share price now.

I bought some, and I think you are correct. Which means that they have shot themselves in the foot. It was always a lose /lose idea. And thats how little they thought it through.
If the share price went up, even those who did not participate, would have seen that it was not a winning idea, and if it went down, who is going to vote for them when it is this threat that is keeping it down. Keep them out, and the share price will go up.

[fungus pudding]

Got to love politics eh? Tow the line,

Where to? :D

[Frostwind]

I think the govt. either doesn't understand how the financial market works, or got some REALLY short term thinking. They "should" have priced MRP lower in order to get investments in Meridian, which is much bigger, given the valuation/risks, it should be priced around $2.3-$2.4, especially after the Greebour ambush.

Instead they used the temporary demand by dumb money to push the selling price up to 2.5. Looking at MRP's share price now, who's going to buy Meridian? It's better to sacrifice MRP prices to get a much better Meridian prices than vice versa, in my humble opinion.

[CJ]

Frostwind - I think they must have got bad advice or assumed the markets would continue to be strong. I think it was their intention that MRP would be 10-15% higher by the time Meridian came around.

[The BOWMAN]

You don't need much of an advice on this pricing really. The scale back rate was so low. Most people got their full allocation. Where would the demand come from? If that needs an expert to figure it out, that will be laughable.

PS, national had a perfect excuse to set it low and blame it on greenbour. Whoever made the call on the pricing just ruined their plan of asset privatisation. That's right, National destroyed the asset privatisation, not greenbour!

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Dropping more on the ASX

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Moosie 900 keep up the effort. Just what I want have very cheeky orders sitting waiting

[POSSUM THE CAT]

moosie 900 Flamingos are a bit tough I prefer canaries. Plus the odd mouse goes down well

[Goldstein]

A few points:

Arguably you are right, they shouldn't have sold because they can borrow cheaper than the return on the shares. But, if our debt keeps going up, there is a risk the interest rate will also go up, for all the NZ debt. Add to that diversification, NZ has 3 SOE and is trying to reduce its share down to 50% in those three to be about 30% of the market - not getting out of the market completely. Add to that related economic benefits of invigorating the NZ stock exchange - when this was first announced, there hadn't been an IPO in ages, now they are flooding in so this argument is now watered down but was valid at the time.

mmm - I think they may have sold at the top and if it wasn't for the Greens/Labour proposal, they would have got even more. Just look at the share price now.

NZ is already predominantly renewables and you dont need govt ownership of those to encourage investment into NZ. On your thinking, maybe the Govt should have spent some of the $1.5Bit received on a second cable to encourage that investment - I am sure Rod Drury would agree.

CJ, I see there are some plusses. However, the way to tackle overseas debt surely is to get NZ into a postiion where it trades its way out of it. In this instance the govt has diverted half of MRP into hospitals, schools etc (not a bad thing) but from an economic point of view it does little to improve our position - and surely that money has to be spent anyway.. I just can't see the rationale or end game. If the govt had said we want to raise money to invest in another cable to Sydney to attract big data centre operators here to use our renewable energy, I can see the logic. But I can't even recall why they are partially selling the SOEs.

[fungus pudding]

CJ, I see there are some plusses. However, the way to tackle overseas debt surely is to get NZ into a postiion where it trades its way out of it. In this instance the govt has diverted half of MRP into hospitals, schools etc (not a bad thing) but from an economic point of view it does little to improve our position - and surely that money has to be spent anyway.. I just can't see the rationale or end game. If the govt had said we want to raise money to invest in another cable to Sydney to attract big data centre operators here to use our renewable energy, I can see the logic. But I can't even recall why they are partially selling the SOEs.

It allows them to invest in schools, hospitals and other infrastructure without risking a downgrade in the country's credit rating.

[Arbroath]

I actually did want to get 100% of what I applied for (ended up with c 65%) so have started picking some up today at $2.30. My guess is they might ebb back to $2.15-2.20 but I'm confident in the company to execute medium term.
These power company shares should be boring investments - look at Contact which has traded $4.80-$5.80 over about the last 2 years. Have to agree with some earlier posters that the Government priced this wrong though - a $2.35-2.40 price would've left the punters happier as markets in general have come off the past few weeks but now the Meridien sale will be very difficult. If markets have a messy northern summer wouldn't surprise me if they pull the next float altogether.

[Joshuatree]

Arguably(to keep warm) Contact is better value.

[RRR]

Arguably(to keep warm) Contact is better value.

Agree, Contact is better value!

[BlackCross]

Looks like it's heading to be the worlds worst privatisation? Never mind at least the directors and the institutions that arranged the float are profiting.

BTW - If you really want to raise some tax money, do what every advanced country in the world does and introduce CGT.

[Goldstein]

Interestingly the NZD was worth over 0.83 USD at the time of the float and now over 0.79. S0 20c off the share price and also considering the exchange rate, a US investor would be down about 12.5%.

All great timing. Greens/Labour stunt, Rio Tinto cloud, Wheeler having a go at forex. Oh well at least some of the coming health spend has been transfered to mum and dad's household debt.

[fungus pudding]

Looks like it's heading to be the worlds worst privatisation? Never mind at least the directors and the institutions that arranged the float are profiting.

BTW - If you really want to raise some tax money, do what every advanced country in the world does and introduce CGT.

It's not that simple. CGT slows commercial activity, or at worst stops things happening. There's no guarantee that tax raised will exceed tax lost. It's also a disincentive to investing. e.g the sharemarket will slow when minor rebalancing is taxed.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Fungus Pudding if it is such a detriment to investing why don"t other countries do away with it. IMHO a fixed system like Australia would be far better than have to argue intent in court. If the IRD wants to push it.

[fungus pudding]

Fungus Pudding if it is such a detriment to investing why don"t other countries do away with it. IMHO a fixed system like Australia would be far better than have to argue intent in court. If the IRD wants to push it.

Perhaps other countries should do as we do, but it's political so that won't happen. Having done the odd bit of dealing in Australia, mainly with motels, I can assure you it puts the brakes on many transactions. If it is introduced then it certainly should include your residence. There's all sorts of models of CGT; some tax only on amounts over and above inflation. Possibly the best is allowing repatriation as some states in America allow. IOW only if the funds are used as personal spending money, or income, tax applies - an exit tax. Nothing sillier than taxing a factory owner who wants to sell and move to bigger/better premises for expansion. Or motel lessees who want to sell a lease and buy a FHGC. Stepping stone farms? It's hard enough to finance those sort of things without the taxman wanting a slice. Labour-Green party say they want to encourage investment in business rather than property. Yet they want to tax all capital gains, so hard to see how that would work.

[minimoke]

With Pete dunnes resignation that makes one less seat for national next election since I reckon he won't be around in a years time. So this puts added strength to a possible labour green coalition which puts mrp at risk as well as future soe sell offs. I am very very pleased I didn't get into mrp.

[CJ]

Arguably one seat less but if National doesn't do deals with Dunne and Act, they may get more support from centre voters.

It does bring Winston into play and he wants the govt to buy back MRP!

[CJ]

I think we are all pleased we missed out now! I'm sure Labour will take this seat as well, looking at previous elections and knowing the socio-economic situation of th Ohairu electorate...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C5%8Chariu_%28New_Zealand_electorate%29Not necessarily as I would assume Dunne voters are more likely to go to National : http://www.electionresults.org.nz/electionresults_2011/electorate-35.html

Plus, winning a seat is irrelevant for the main parties as their numbers are determined by party votes. It is only where you win a seat but don't get a big party vote, that seats become important (ie. Dunne, ACT, Mana and Maori party) or you win a seat and win between 2 and 5% of votes to bring in party seats where you don't cross the 5% threshold.

[iceman]

Not necessarily as I would assume Dunne voters are more likely to go to National : http://www.electionresults.org.nz/electionresults_2011/electorate-35.html

Plus, winning a seat is irrelevant for the main parties as their numbers are determined by party votes. It is only where you win a seat but don't get a big party vote, that seats become important (ie. Dunne, ACT, Mana and Maori party) or you win a seat and win between 2 and 5% of votes to bring in party seats where you don't cross the 5% threshold.

And then Colin Craig will be given a safe right of center seat to bring in 3-5 MPs with him !!

[CJ]

And then Colin Craig will be given a safe right of center seat to bring in 3-5 MPs with him !!I suggested that to Duncan Garner and he thinks Key would prefer a deal with Winston!

Hows that for an indictment on Craig.

[CJ]

I'd prefer Key dealing with Peters over Craig.

Craig seeks advice from the bible, and takes an inflexible and intolerant view of what he sees therein.

Peters seeks advice from his three trusty advisors, Jim Beam, Johnny Walker and Jack Daniels, and is perfectly capable of shifting his views.I think your right. Peters would be more predictable and easy to trade off policies.

Craig I see as being inflexible and taking moral/religious stances.

[fungus pudding]

I'd prefer Key dealing with Peters over Craig.

Craig seeks advice from the bible, and takes an inflexible and intolerant view of what he sees therein.

Peters seeks advice from his three trusty advisors, Jim Beam, Johnny Walker and Jack Daniels, and is perfectly capable of shifting his views.

Yep. Chuck a few baubles Winnie's way and you're in - not that baubles influence him, cos he's said they don't. But as you say, he might change his view on that -----again.

[Billy Boy]

Perhaps other countries should do as we do, but it's political so that won't happen. Having done the odd bit of dealing in Australia, mainly with motels, I can assure you it puts the brakes on many transactions. If it is introduced then it certainly should include your residence. There's all sorts of models of CGT; some tax only on amounts over and above inflation. Possibly the best is allowing repatriation as some states in America allow. IOW only if the funds are used as personal spending money, or income, tax applies - an exit tax. Nothing sillier than taxing a factory owner who wants to sell and move to bigger/better premises for expansion. Or motel lessees who want to sell a lease and buy a FHGC. Stepping stone farms? It's hard enough to finance those sort of things without the taxman wanting a slice. Labour-Green party say they want to encourage investment in business rather than property. Yet they want to tax all capital gains, so hard to see how that would work.
Hey Fungus
Did you go to the same seminar that I did ???
That ozzy guy recons we would be "Bloody Stupid to introduce a CGT"
There is a strong lobby starting in Aust. to get rid of it, or trim considerably.
At the end of the day it's a tax on inflation.
As he said
"what about the farmer that buys calves and sells them as 18 mths old."
L/Green need to go back to life 101 coz they truly havént though things
through.
Oh.... BTW... good by NZX
BB

[Billy Boy]

i think we should start a party; the noah fence party.

Sparky can be in charge of the ministry of silly walks. Majorbarejet and major von tempsky can the leaders of our military. Ptc can be in charge of the ministry of buybacks, starting with buying up mighty river again at lower prices. Craic obviously knows tel inside and out so he can do be telecommunications minister. I, of course, will be in charge of environment and all things moosie'nessly related ;)
.
What about balance ?????

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Billy Boy that farmer pays Income Tax on that transaction anyway as it is part of his business not a capital gain.

[Billy Boy]

Billy Boy that farmer pays Income Tax on that transaction anyway as it is part of his business not a capital gain.
Not if he's a chicken farmer and it's not part of his normal buzz.
And if your point is the case.... then prop speculators should,nt either
BB:)

[Billy Boy]

sorry ment to say share trader not prop spec....

[fungus pudding]

Hey Fungus
Did you go to the same seminar that I did ???
That ozzy guy recons we would be "Bloody Stupid to introduce a CGT"
There is a strong lobby starting in Aust. to get rid of it, or trim considerably.
At the end of the day it's a tax on inflation.
As he said
"what about the farmer that buys calves and sells them as 18 mths old."
L/Green need to go back to life 101 coz they truly havént though things
through.
Oh.... BTW... good by NZX
BB

No - didn't know about any seminar. Can't see a problem with farmer selling calves though. That's normal business activity for him so subject to income tax. But that's not to say there are no difficulties in implementing a CGT. There's still that line to be drawn between what is income and what is a gain. Anyway he's right about one thing - we'd be bloudy stupid to introduce it. It is nasty in Oz so not surprised there's opposition forming to it. They introduced it mid 80s with adjustment for inflation deducted from gain. That's now modified cos it was a headache - I think now the gain is added to income and taxed at payer's normal tax rates. After 2 years (I think) only 50% of the gain is treated as income. It has the effect of encouraging investors to hold assets much longer with the intention of selling up once retired to catch the lowest tax rate - which tightened the market and forced prices up with lower supply. You may remember how real estate prices rocketed in NZ when Labour introduced the infamous spec tax in the seventies. Market dried up overnight and prices which had been rising rapidly - like they are now - went through the stratosphere. Great fun it was (for me anyway).

[Billy Boy]

Yep... good old Bill Rowlings. I liked it too.
CGT will just get priced in.
When I press the labour ite's about what will and what wont
be ring fenced they wont commit
bb

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Fungus Pudding at least with the Australian System you know where you are. Not like here where the IRD can take you to court. And the onus is on you to prove it is capital gain & not income.

[fungus pudding]

Fungus Pudding at least with the Australian System you know where you are. Not like here where the IRD can take you to court. And the onus is on you to prove it is capital gain & not income.

I don't think so. I have never heard of the IRD taxing a genuine gain, although they have certainly jumped on the odd trader. And make no mistake about Australia. there is plenty of skulduggery over there - believe me. People get extremely inventive when it comes to tax - everywhere in the planet.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Fungus Pudding I have had the letter from IRD many years ago to explain some of my share dealings. I was lucky in to the extent that I had liquidated a lot of shares to finance a move to Australia for employment. I like the Australian system as it was then and I assume it still is. It was a breeze & you knew exactly where you were.

[fungus pudding]

Fungus Pudding I have had the letter from IRD many years ago to explain some of my share dealings. I was lucky in to the extent that I had liquidated a lot of shares to finance a move to Australia for employment. I like the Australian system as it was then and I assume it still is. It was a breeze & you knew exactly where you were.

But no problem with your explanation to NZ IRD I presume, whereas Aussie taxman simply taxes every time, even if the transaction is made to reinvest to lift income. I dropped all Oz stuff, I was in a few syndicates, and NZ was better because of tax.
I suspect if CGT does come here there will be a huge exodus of funds to Oz because we will have lost every advantage then.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Fungus Pudding it was an argument they could not argue with as I was in Australia at the time of receiving letter. But you hold on to shares you should sell here rather than risk be classed as A trader and being asked for back taxes & penalties.I would be far happier with the certanties of Australia & you can tax deduct losses.

[Minerbarejet]

Balance can balance us all out! :t_up:
Ministry of Justice without a doubt.

[fungus pudding]

Fungus Pudding it was an argument they could not argue with as I was in Australia at the time of receiving letter. But you hold on to shares you should sell here rather than risk be classed as A trader and being asked for back taxes & penalties.I would be far happier with the certanties of Australia & you can tax deduct losses.

Yes and no. You can deduct losses from capital gains but not from other taxable sources. I am amazed that you'd rather be certain that you have to pay tax than having a chance of keeping your ill-gotten gains :D:D

[iceman]

I think we should start a party; the Noah Fence party.

Sparky can be in charge of the Ministry of Silly Walks. Majorbarejet and Major Von Tempsky can the leaders of our military. PTC can be in charge of the Ministry of Buybacks, starting with buying up Mighty River again at lower prices. Craic obviously knows TEL inside and out so he can do be Telecommunications Minister. I, of course, will be in charge of environment and all things Moosie'nessly related

;) You forgot El Zorro in the Ministry of Works !

[Minerbarejet]

dont forget to register the party or you will get dunne
starting new thread in off market for the Noah Fence Party

[Baddarcy]

2.30 was about my valuation pre float. Wonder if we'll see support at this level?

Looking like it at the moment. Almost looks like MRP might be on its way back to a respectable price.

[mouse]

Down, Down, Down, Down. DONT PANIC!

[Hoop]

Down, Down, Down, Down. DONT PANIC!

A must have piece of equipment for all those investors still in the market and have elected to ride out this correction (hopefully this is only a NZX50 bull correction not a cyclic reversal)

https://encrypted-tbn3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSWGK-4cvFMoWdwB1bciGfQIZmj-mSur8wPBFMmIHUSRHSQWyfm

[minimoke]

A must have piece of equipment for all those investors still in the market and have elected to ride out this correction (hopefully this is only a NZX50 bull correction not a cyclic reversal)
https://encrypted-tbn3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSWGK-4cvFMoWdwB1bciGfQIZmj-mSur8wPBFMmIHUSRHSQWyfm
I'm not sure how a stock that has been listed a month can be subject to a "correction". It is presumably moving towards a more accurate price. Part of the governments rationale for this listing was to give moms and pops an opportunity to learn about the share market. Hopefully someone has taught them about stop losses since a 10% trigger is surely about to be reached. Already there should be a few lessons to be learnt - short term ones for sure but lessons all the same.

[Hoop]

I'm not sure how a stock that has been listed a month can be subject to a "correction". It is presumably moving towards a more accurate price.

You know the top of the market is close when there is an large increase in the number of public floats....One does not need to be a rocket scientist to figure why this is so...

An accurate price is a variable which is influenced by its own market sector surroundings..macro micro factors together with what investors are willing to pay for it on the day...Just before MRP was listed its assessed price range 2.35 - 2.85 the powerful market players assumed this was an accurate range...Labogreens threw a curve ball at MRP and lowered the "accurate" price and now the Bull market correction ?? is throwing MRP another curve ball..what is the "accurate" price???...Its the price that Mr Market sells it for on the day. Mr Market is alway right until it proves itself wrong.

Have a look at CEN (Contact Energy) float in 1999.. It happened after a bear market Capitulation and when the market had bounced up 40+% and everyone was feeling rich again....What happened after that was not in the script, the young NZSE40 bull died prematurely at 6 months old but it was not noticed until after the CEN float when the index downturn got worse. The new bear morphed from a gentle teddy into a grizzly which mauled the index back down to its previous 1998 bear bottom...to make matters worse the bear was Methuselah and lived for 3.5 years...Mum and Dad buy&hold investors wondered what the hell had hit them as it took 18months for CEN to rise up to meet its listing price again...Then we had that exuberant 5yr old Bull from 2003 -late 2007 where CEN tripled its listing price to over $9...

I was at a Real Estate Gathering and got asked for my advice whether MRP listing was worth buying into...I stood up and informally addressed the 30 odd people and told them if they were to keep MRP as a long investment they should expect to be able to mentally withstand the bad and the good times and be mentally prepared for the unexpected...I mentioned CEN (as I wrote above) as an example of a Govt public float issued near the top of a Bull market ..Buying shares is not for everyone .. Ask yourself the question ..what type of person are you? can you stand the negative doom type news during a bear market cycle??...Are you impulsive?...emotional? ....OK you are tolerant and can withstand pressure...but...There's a saying ..the bear market doesn't throw you out it wears you out (mentally).....and even the die-hards wave the white flag at some point.... most of the time one surrenders at the darkest moments...just before the dawn.
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Logic....For an index to fall it must have a majority of its stocks to fall (price).

A couple of old sayings (quotes)........A rising tide lifts all boats...(John F Kennedy)........................it works in the opposite way as well...eh?..a falling tide..

Not all stocks fall at the same rate or degree............It's only when the tide goes out that you learn who's been swimming naked...(Warren Buffett)