Chatham Rock Phosphate - CRP

[youngatheart]

An open question, is it better value to hold CRP directly at 15.5c or indirectly via AOR at 0.7c ?

[croesus]

An open question, is it better value to hold CRP directly at 15.5c or indirectly via AOR at 0.7c ?

Good question, being a risk averse investor ( puttin my flack proof theme on as i type ) I prefer AOR, as apart from CRP, there is the oil play via Mosman energy. ( plus a few otherodds n sods )..if your a bit less risk averse go for AORWA...

Not sure the ratio on these now... after recent AOR issues...
MAC or any one ? know what giddy heights AOR needs to be to make it worth turning AORWA into AOR ?

disc.. hold all the above

[croesus]

Predictive... aaaargh " flack proof theme " should have read " flack proof helmet "
sorry bout that

[MAC]

Good question, being a risk averse investor ( puttin my flack proof theme on as i type ) I prefer AOR, as apart from CRP, there is the oil play via Mosman energy. ( plus a few otherodds n sods )..if your a bit less risk averse go for AORWA...

Not sure the ratio on these now... after recent AOR issues...
MAC or any one ? know what giddy heights AOR needs to be to make it worth turning AORWA into AOR ?

disc.. hold all the above

Not sure either, don't research AOR to that extent.

Different companies, different investments, development vs production, each to their own.

[BlackPeter]

Good question, being a risk averse investor ( puttin my flack proof theme on as i type ) I prefer AOR, as apart from CRP, there is the oil play via Mosman energy. ( plus a few otherodds n sods )..if your a bit less risk averse go for AORWA...

Not sure the ratio on these now... after recent AOR issues...
MAC or any one ? know what giddy heights AOR needs to be to make it worth turning AORWA into AOR ?

disc.. hold all the above

not sure about AOR (haven't done any research into it, so can't comment), but if you are really a risk adverse investor, than I don't think that CRP or anything exposed to it would be the right stock for you.:p

[croesus]

Generally Risk averse, mostly in Commercial property.... being Risk Averse is a 2 edged definition, by having a couple of percent of my funds in AOR, AORE and CRP... I am being Risk Averse, as I am not willing to risk missing out if AOR or CRP ... hit the jackpot.

( cackhanded way of describing it but I hope you get the drift )


Cheers

[MAC]

It’s all about risk/reward too, not just risk. Nobody IMO should be putting their house into one stock though especially a high risk/reward one.

The prospective rewards for Chatham Rock are clear, the SP has been discounted to loose change at present due to regulatory risk, and there are ways to minimise the risk and keep the prospective reward.

Just keep a diversification limit and stick to it, use options to your advantage if you can get them.

I’ve invested 30% of my diversification limit prior to the marine consent, and if granted, intend to invest the remaining 70% through exercising options if a consent is granted.

The phosphate market may just be coming off a cyclical low too, there would possibly be greater risk if the converse was true.

Disc: Happy to hold long term for a cyclical phosphate market peak

[NT001]

The phosphate market may just be coming off a cyclical low too, there would possibly be greater risk if the converse was true.

As indicated by the Middle East newspaper article you posted a few days ago, MAC, there are a number of concerns about Morocco's position as the world's dominant phosphate exporter, including a potential ISIS threat in northern Morocco. ISIS is keen to exploit local dissensions to seize control of valuable economic resources across the whole region, as already seen in Libya. There are also issues about the fact that some of the best phosphate mining that feeds Morocco's economy is actually in Western Sahara, a territory illegally seized and controlled by Morocco at present but potentially subject to conflict. Plus, Morocco's king whose fairly enlightened economic policies are largely based on phosphate sales, is determined to drive up the world price.

Sure, there are other countries with phosphate (including Australia) and Morocco's production is much less than that of China and the US which consume most of their own local production. But there's actually quite a lot of talk in market commentary of "peak phosphate" - a global shortage looming because world demand for food outstrips the availability of the phosphate fertiliser needed to grow it. And the potential shortage is exacerbated because some countries are pushing crop growth not only for food but for biofuels, which are notorious for requiring huge applications of phosphate.

From all I've read, phosphate prices are likely to go up rather than down. Dunno what evidence has been given to the hearings.

[MAC]

I think the closing statements day on the 19th of November will be fascinating does anyone know what time it starts........ to be held at the RA Vance stand @ the Basin reserve.

The transcripts all seem to kick off at 9am, imagine they probably want folk seated a bit prior to that.

I’ve not been along to the hearing yet and might go also for a listen on the 19th also.

Imagine, if true to form, you will probably be sitting with the hippies throwing rocks Snapiti ?

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/203263.pdf

[MAC]

lol.... yeh with my legalize cannabis T-shirt on.(t shirt made of hemp of course).

going along purely to here the summing up of arguments to see if I think I should make an investment in the company. Watching the body language of the people involved and having a chat to a few people will be most reveling me thinks.

It was revealing just to read George Clement's transcript and his cross examination, seems to have stubbornly moderated his view a bit I reckon, I was surprised actually for someone so vocal in the media that he was so confused over even the size of the area to be mined. But, I guess that's a lot of what hearings are for, to give everyone a chance to have a say and to give everyone an opportunity to be set straight.

Should be an interesting day indeed, four years work for some come to fruition, Robin Falconer, Mike Patrick, Ray Wood, the Boskalis guys, and all the consultants.

[BFG]

I'm tempted to come along just to get stoned with Snapiti and stoned by MAC! :D :D :D :D :D

[Balance]

Should be an interesting day indeed, four years work for some come to fruition, Robin Falconer, Mike Patrick, Ray Wood, the Boskalis guys, and all the consultants.

All those lovely consultancy fees - please let there be more hearings and appeals!

[croesus]

All those lovely consultancy fees - please let there be more hearings and appeals!

You can't help yourself eh, hiding behind your erroneous non de plume, makes you brave...what a silly thing to say Balance, constant negative sniping... I thought you were smarter then that.
Your lucky not to be tapped on the shoulder by the moderator.

MAC is right it will be very interesting, wether the green cabal triumph.. or common sense, as a aside been listening to a guy on Talk-back who "seemed" to know what he was on about re mine design re Pike.
His comment was the death of the 29, could be laid squarely on the Greens, and green policy, in AU there would have been halof a dozen ventilation shafts , and outside access, not here, intractable Green policy.

The shame is, its rubbish bush, I know I have looked down on it from the Croesus Track probably 15 times, not National park, not magnificent podacarps, just very average scrubby bush, of which there is a million acres off in those parts.

Very sad,
Russel and his ilk have a lot to answer for.

[MAC]

CRP completes allotment of Rights Issue Shortfall

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/203886.pdf

Well how will all the soph’s keep gobbling up shares now that they can no longer buy off market ?

Next step, let’s see what happens after the resource consent;

Hypothetically, if Subsea were not to take up any of their options, $11M worth expiring 31 March 2015, then CRP may then still require a small post marine consent rights issue to tie them over until the CRPOB expiry provides them with another $30M in late 2015.

Hope Subsea do let them expire, a small discounted post marine consent rights issue would be a good reward for all other long term loyal shareholder’s I reckon.

And, analyst valuations would increase by 18% as they have allowed already for the dilution. Edison’s last valuation at $1.76 would go to $2.11 on that basis.

One can only hope, either way, I’m a happy shareholder,

www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/?ACT=18&ID=12017 (http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/?ACT=18&ID=12017)

[easy money]

[QUOTE=MAC;516790]CRP completes allotment of Rights Issue Shortfall

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/203886.pdf

Well how will all the soph’s keep gobbling up shares now that they can no longer buy off market ?

Next step, let’s see what happens after the resource consent;

Hypothetically, if Subsea were not to take up any of their options, $11M worth expiring 31 March 2015, then CRP may then still require a small post marine consent rights issue to tie them over until the CRPOB expiry provides them with another $30M in late 2015.

Hope Subsea do let them expire, a small discounted post marine consent rights issue would be a good reward for all other long term loyal shareholder’s I reckon.

And, analyst valuations would increase by 18% as they have allowed already for the dilution. Edison’s last valuation at $1.76 would go to $2.11 on that basis.

One can only hope, either way, I’m a happy shareholder,

Should be an interesting week for Crp...final days of hearings in Wellington..will anyone be attending?..

[easy money]

I notice that sellers are starting to thin out again...looks like a rerating coming soon..

[croesus]

I notice that sellers are starting to thin out again...looks like a rerating coming soon..

I hope so, From reading all I can, I can not see a valid reason for not granting.
Cheers

[croesus]

I wont be able to, but if you and or any one else does, would appreciate your take on proceedings
thanks

Cheers

[easy money]

Does anyone know what time the meeting starts tomorrow at the basin reserve

epa.govt.nz..all the details are there...there is an 0800 number you can ring...would be nice to here your feedback.

[Joshuatree]

Snap 9am Norwood room, RA Vance stand access via Sussex st 17-19th Nov plus 20th if required.

[NT001]

Just looking at the two submissions filed yesterday by objectors, I really can't see anything that would prevent the conditional granting of the application. Quite a bit was just about tightening up the wording of the conditions. Good grief, one objection was that the engine noise of the boat sailing regularly between Chatham Rise and the mainland might disrupt the migration routes of marine mammals! Okay, let's also ban all fishing boats from the area (except waka of course).

[croesus]

Just looking at the two submissions filed yesterday by objectors, I really can't see anything that would prevent the conditional granting of the application. Quite a bit was just about tightening up the wording of the conditions. Good grief, one objection was that the engine noise of the boat sailing regularly between Chatham Rise and the mainland might disrupt the migration routes of marine mammals! Okay, let's also ban all fishing boats from the area (except waka of course).

Unbelievable. " engine noise ".....

Still thats the world we live in, sobering to consider, what wouldnt probably have happened if we transplanted our current restrictions back 100 years.

Main trunk line.. nope.

Homer Tunnel ... nope

Wellington Airport .. nope

Auckland Harbour Bridge.. maybe.

Deep sea Trawling .. Nope

Offshore Platforms Taranaki... nope.. I can hear that Lawless woman ... crying a river of tears already.

Salt Works Lake Grassmere.... nope

Roads to Ski Areas... would be a struggle .. especially Central North Island

enough....
can any one think of more.. must be lots more

[BFG]

Pretty much all the dams around the country.

They don't even like wind power (you should see the objections book here at my work for Tiritea!)

Importation if Canadians.

Everyone has a gripe these days. 98% are frivolous/stupid. You learn to not even listen to the people saying them.

[easy money]

Pretty much all the dams around the country.

They don't even like wind power (you should see the objections book here at my work for Tiritea!)

Importation if Canadians.

Everyone has a gripe these days. 98% are frivolous/stupid. You learn to not even listen to the people saying them.

Amen to that.

[psychic]

CRP's closing statement:

http://www.rockphosphate.co.nz/news/2014/11/19/8dczo0zt4mm5wefg3vb56ahkncx3ej

[NT001]

many thanks for that informative coverage snaps

[MAC]

A fair two page summary here for those who may not wish to read all 90 pages;

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1411/S00722/chatham-rock-phosphate-strong-case-for-marine-consent-grant.htm

[artemis]

A fair two page summary here for those who may not wish to read all 90 pages;

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1411/S00722/chatham-rock-phosphate-strong-case-for-marine-consent-grant.htm

Pretty damning assessment of the staff reports and staff input (or lack of). Appreciate it is CRP's POV but even if only some of the issues are correct, the competence of some of the EPA staff must be called into question. Thinking I might lodge an OIA request once the decision is known, to find out what reviews of staff input and processes have been, or will be, undertaken.

[MAC]

The DMC adjourned the hearing rather than closing it, saying that they needed further time to administer the revised environmental conditions which were received from CRP recently on 6th November, they said they would need around two weeks to do this.

I took this as a good indication that the close out and the 20 day notification period, if required, will now be all about fine tuning the wording, accuracy and intent of the environmental conditions.

If the DMC were going to decline the marine consent they would not require two weeks to further consider environmental conditions associated with the prospective granting of a marine consent.

When exploring options, the DMC asked CRP legal counsel if a marine consent area reduced to the same size as the mining permit area would be acceptable. The reply was that it was not preferred but if it allowed the venture to proceed then CRP would accept.

One must note that the area being considered under the marine consent application is very much larger than the area for the mining permit which CRP hold, so there is ultimately quite a lot of room for compromise by the DMC if so required in allowing the venture to proceed.

The Edison valuation base case is for a 15 year mine life and based on the mining permit area resource, so such a compromise would not affect their stock valuation of $1.76.

The overall process could spill into January, IMO it depends on how efficient the next two weeks will be.

All in all the mood seems to be one of wanting to broker a solution.

[BFG]

Cheers for keeping us up to date guys.

Artemis, I'd be very interested in that OIA request as well.

[biker]

Thanks Mac and Snapiti for passing on your views of the hearing. Much appreciated.

[MAC]

We may get an update next week with HY reporting also .....

[MAC]

Nice follow up article this morning;

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/63360667/Seabed-phosphate-mining-has-limited-risks

[BFG]

So if it's uncertain, stop it?

Would love to hear Rod Drurys comments on that!

"No Rod, you can't start a cloud computing business in Wellington because we are UNCERTAIN of the future of accounting and UNCERTAIN of what effect your business might have on the craft brewing of Macs Brewery down the road, as well as the Hipsters who frequent it."

[Balance]

Can't help it but everytime I see CRP, I think Crap.

[croesus]

Another top post from Balance.

Your one smart guy, and a sense of humour... you would be the funniest kid in a class of 7 year olds.

Well done, keep em coming.

LOL.

[easy money]

Mr Winchester (CRP's main lawyer)made his final submission on Wed and this makes very interesting reading...not only does he effectively counter every argument put up by the opposing submiters but also launches a fairly scathing attack at the EPA making them look very amateurish and basically telling them to lift there game...(when this case is over I am sure that the EPA will cop a lot of flak from any peer group review and Mr Winchester is going to have a great career as an enviromental lawyer)..Even the DMC chairman had some very favourable comments to make about how Mr Winchester had handled the application..As other poster's have pointed out it feel's like the DMC want to make this work...It is interesting to note out that out of the 4 possible options the DMC have indicated the option of declining the consent is option no 4..CRP have been quite lucky to have had 2nd mover advantage after the TTR case (which has turned out to have been a big learning curve for all parties involved and could be subject to appeal by TTR..the DMC will not want a repeat of this)...Yes we might have to wait till after Christmas for a final decision but this is not a bad thing...I think you will see a gradual increase in share price as more people come to the conclusion that CRP will get the consent they need(in one form or other)..It is worth noting that if CRP do get there consent that is workable to them then at the current share price CRP would have to be the most undervalued stock on the NZX....

[Ginger_steps_]

Mr Winchester (CRP's main lawyer)made his final submission on Wed and this makes very interesting reading...not only does he effectively counter every argument put up by the opposing submiters but also launches a fairly scathing attack at the EPA making them look very amateurish and basically telling them to lift there game...(when this case is over I am sure that the EPA will cop a lot of flak from any peer group review and Mr Winchester is going to have a great career as an enviromental lawyer)..Even the DMC chairman had some very favourable comments to make about how Mr Winchester had handled the application..As other poster's have pointed out it feel's like the DMC want to make this work...It is interesting to note out that out of the 4 possible options the DMC have indicated the option of declining the consent is option no 4..CRP have been quite lucky to have had 2nd mover advantage after the TTR case (which has turned out to have been a big learning curve for all parties involved and could be subject to appeal by TTR..the DMC will not want a repeat of this)...Yes we might have to wait till after Christmas for a final decision but this is not a bad thing...I think you will see a gradual increase in share price as more people come to the conclusion that CRP will get the consent they need(in one form or other)..It is worth noting that if CRP do get there consent that is workable to them then at the current share price CRP would have to be the most undervalued stock on the NZX....
Have you got a link to that for us easy money?

[easy money]

see if this works..
http://www.epa.govt.nz/EEZ/chatham_rock_phosphate/hearing/daily_transcripts_proceedings/Pages/Hearing-Day-26.aspx

[Ginger_steps_]

see if this works..
http://www.epa.govt.nz/EEZ/chatham_rock_phosphate/hearing/daily_transcripts_proceedings/Pages/Hearing-Day-26.aspx
Thanks mate - like a charm!

[NT001]

Somebody out there must be reading the tealeaves. Not heavy trading but bid now 15c, offer 20c.

[kanaka]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/CRP/announcements/257965

Is this interesting or not? From the above announcement
"So we’re still looking for more cash. If you would like to support the cause further, please talk to me this week as this is a limited opportunity at a discount to current market."

[Balance]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/CRP/announcements/257965

Is this interesting or not? From the above announcement
"So we’re still looking for more cash. If you would like to support the cause further, please talk to me this week as this is a limited opportunity at a discount to current market."

Roll up, roll up, limited opportunity!

How many times have CC raised cash from investors over the years?

[MAC]

They completed the rights issue and shortfall ($2.5M) which was intended to see them right through the marine consent process, sounds like those unproductive EPA staff reports cost more than the EPA probably estimated, and probably cost CRP a bit more in expert witnesses in clarifications.

They might need another $0.5M or something like that is my guess, given they raised 1M in the last couple of weeks, I wouldn't read much into it, probably all be done and dusted in the coming week.

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/204246.pdf

[winner69]

I have the champagne on ice to share with a few other submitters when the good news comes through

[croesus]

Roll up, roll up, limited opportunity!

How many times have CC raised cash from investors over the years?

So. whats your point ?
They need to raise cash.

Obviously...

[MAC]

Corrrrr,even the sniff of a smidgen more off market shares on offer has the sophs selling on market to buy off market. Looking forward to an announcement to say it’s all done, probably this week.

[easy money]

Corrrrr,even the sniff of a smidgen more off market shares on offer has the sophs selling on market to buy off market. Looking forward to an announcement to say it’s all done, probably this week.

Yes the market is still a bit thin and punters are nervous...but an announcement will come and the company can move forward..

[MAC]

Yes the market is still a bit thin and punters are nervous...but an announcement will come and the company can move forward..

And, there's not much left to raise, I reckon those selling this morning to buy may even miss out altogether !

Easy Money, your inbox is full or something, I'll send you a PM.

[easy money]

And, there's not much left to raise, I reckon those selling this morning to buy may even miss out altogether !

Easy Money, your inbox is full or something, I'll send you a PM.

Thanks Mac for your info.

[MAC]

It would be nice too if they are done before the HY report this week so as to include in the commentary. Will be interesting to see whom may have moved into the top 20 holders list also after the capital raise.

Not sure what day it is due actually, could be tomorrow, was on the 25th last year ?

[traderdude]

It would be nice too if they are done before the HY report this week so as to include in the commentary. Will be interesting to see whom may have moved into the top 20 holders list also after the capital raise.

Not sure what day it is due actually, could be tomorrow, was on the 25th last year ?

HY results out https://nzx.com/companies/CRP/announcements/258188

Also interesting addition to the top shareholders over the last month. Infinity Investments, apparrently owned by a couple of rich listers have picked up 8.3m shares
6506

[MAC]

HY results out https://nzx.com/companies/CRP/announcements/258188

Also interesting addition to the top shareholders over the last month. Infinity Investments, apparrently owned by a couple of rich listers have picked up 8.3m shares
6506

Thanks for that Traderdude, I must find out some day how one gets access to that sort of data ?

The interesting thing for me is that the top 10 shareholders have never sold a skerrick throughout the rollercoaster that NZP&M and the EPA have offered up over the last two years, good to see a new substantial shareholder coming in too.

Not long now, from risk discounted loose change to something close to this (http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/?ACT=18&ID=12017) before xmas I reckon.

[MAC]

Was late on a Friday for those that missed it;

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/204716.pdf

[biker]

still nothing from CRP.
I think it is safe to say with the meeting being adjourned by the committee they will manipulate the formal close date so as to give them plenty of time to consult with lawyers and consultants..... personally I would be surprised to receive an outcome prior to end of Janaury

Or, announce just prior to Christmas so any push back on consent being granted has limited oxygen.

[biker]

Or, announce just prior to Christmas so any push back on consent being granted has limited oxygen.

This refers to consent being granted, not rejected, and refers to political/green push-back.
The timing of any announcement is irrelevant to the share price. It will rocket or plummet regardless of timing.

Disc. My money is on it being granted but time will tell and high risk/reward investment propositions don't always come out on the reward side IMPE !

[MAC]

Or, announce just prior to Christmas so any push back on consent being granted has limited oxygen.

Could go to January, the last announcement still suggested by xmas though.

If this two weeks or so adjournment is about a few more loops to fine tune the conditions or just even get the wording agreed with the EPA staff, it may not then take the full 20 working days for the DMC to do what they do if the conditions have been agreed already.

Quick check with the minister and EPA chairman, then it’s all xmas dinner. Might otherwise be just too difficult to get the entire DMC all back in one place from holidays within the 20 working days.

[NT001]

The DMC chairman Neil Walter has a very long-established reputation as a team leader who earns people's confidence and brings them together to achieve constructive outcomes, but without too much dithering. I don't know his views (if any) on enviromental issues and wouldn't take too much out of the ironsands decision where the issues were different. Walter has shown his ability to work with distinction across a whole variety of difficult areas including of course foreign diplomacy in MFAT's happier and more productive days. That's one reason I am very optimistic about this decision. Another is CRP's willingness to offer compromises that in many cases have already won the agreement of the opponents. And a third of course is that the DMC would prefer not to earn a reputation of caving in to the environmentalists and cultural purists on every economic development project that's proposed. That's not what the government and EPA want.

[NT001]

Another helpful boost for CRP, which seems to have given it a slight SP lift this morning

https://www.nzx.com/companies/CRP/announcements/258736

[croesus]

Another helpful boost for CRP, which seems to have given it a slight SP lift this morning

https://www.nzx.com/companies/CRP/announcements/258736

Hopefully Bodes well, for the Permit go ahead

[BlackPeter]

Hopefully Bodes well, for the Permit go ahead

can't possibly see any connection between the R&D grant and the environmental permit, but yes - I certainly hope the permit gets through (otherwise it would be a sad reflection on doing business in NZ).

The other question however is whether the phosphate mining afterwards will be economical - and I think the jury on that might be still out. Had a look through this UN report: ftp://ftp.fao.org/ag/agp/docs/cwfto16.pdf, and it looks like they feel that we might have over the next couple of years a phosphate surplus (which probably does not bode well for the price). On the other hand - the prediction goes only until 2016 - and who knows, when CRP starts mining (if they get the permit).

[NT001]

Yes BP, but there are widely varying assessments of the future supply and price for phosphate and they're all a bit of a guess. The WHO report is already a bit dated, I'd say. More recent market analyses that I've seen specifically of phosphate have suggested prices are likely to rise. The producers including Morocco are actually trying to push prices up, and although global phosphate resources are reasonably plentiful, production requires expensive investment and infrastructure. And even if the global price eases (temporarily?) there are still pluses in using a local source.

The more important question is how viable this project will be and how soon, and what extra capital raisings may be required. Although in general I'm a longterm investor, my gut feeling is that if the consent is granted it might be best to cash up on the early rise in SP rather than hold longterm.

[MAC]

The world bank phosphate price forecasts were assessed by expert witnesses during the hearing and were pretty much absolutely and totally rubbished by them. The plot below was entered as evidence to demonstrate such.

There are several independent professionally prepared phosphate market research reports available which you can buy, these are prepared by within sector experts. The one I have evaluates a series of supply and demand scenarios, and offers overall a positive outlook for the market.

IMO it is better to buy into a phosphate company during a cyclical phosphate market low than a cyclical phosphate market peak.

6582

[NT001]

I see Labour has criticised the Callaghan Innovation award to CRP. This doesn't surprise me, in fact I thought some would see it as premature. But maybe this is Steven Joyce's way of sending a message to the DMC that the government favours the project. I seem to remember Chris Castle saying the company was disappointed the government's submission didn't really emphasise the economic benefits of the project.

http://campaign.labour.org.nz/consent_should_come_before_research_grants_for_pho sphate_mining

[winner69]

Corporate 'welfare' of the worst kind these grants

[croesus]

Corporate 'welfare' of the worst kind these grants

Dont agree.

Thats like saying... Peter Jackson and co.. shouldnt have got the tax remission...

How many millions has that earnt us, re tours, tourism etc..

hobbit haters, whale oil calls em... very true.

[winner69]

Dont agree.

Thats like saying... Peter Jackson and co.. shouldnt have got the tax remission...

How many millions has that earnt us, re tours, tourism etc..

hobbit haters, whale oil calls em... very true.

What I really meant to say but probably wasn't quite clear enough was this particular grant is the worst kind of corporate welfare possible ...some grants makes perfect sense but this one?

[MAC]

I don’t know winner, a lot of the potential science is not so much about how to better get phosphate from the ocean, it’s about better farming practices and agricultural science.

There is quite a lot of ag research required in regard to the DAP properties of the CRP product in relation to the recently formed National Water Policy. Just another reason why the government may well support CRP behind the scenes.

https://www.national.org.nz/docs/default-source/PDF/2014/policy/water-policy.pdf

The ability of CRP product to reduce runoff into waterways by up to 80% in some applications could provide quite dramatic improvements to NZ lakes and waterways.

Funding this research prospectively benefits the environment through better farming practices and also the marketing of CRP product over all other imported phosphates.

[croesus]

Funny isnt it, the "Greens " are anti CRP, because a few sea urchins will be killed, but cant see the big picture re Carbon miles ( Morrocco to here), run off into waterways maybe less 80%, less cadmium etc etc... still this is a party that espouses homeopathitic remedys for Ebola... and yes quietly they do, otherwise they would have sacked their Frontbencher who is promoting it.

[BlackPeter]

Funny isnt it, the "Greens " are anti CRP, because a few sea urchins will be killed, but cant see the big picture re Carbon miles ( Morrocco to here), run off into waterways maybe less 80%, less cadmium etc etc... still this is a party that espouses homeopathitic remedys for Ebola... and yes quietly they do, otherwise they would have sacked their Frontbencher who is promoting it.

True - the New Zealand "Greens" are a very special breed. I guess most of the real environmentalists gave up or died out and the gaps have been filled by all sorts of unsuccessful left wing politicians looking for a new ride after running their previous political vehicle into the ground. Ex Australian Communists, Ex New Labour, Ex Alliance. I reckon Green is for them just another colour to conceal the underlying "red". But this is for a different thread.

[MAC]

Yep, all they have to do is listen to Dr Alec Mackay, Principal Scientist at AgResearch;

http://www.agresearch.co.nz/about-us/our-people/science-staff/pages/profile.aspx?Name-id=mackay-alec

In the context of Dr MacKay telling us the CRP product could be a “game changer” below, CRP tell us that the phosphate when applied as direct application fertilizer may demand a price point premium of NZ$100 per tonne more than other applications such as SSP.

Analysts like Edison have not yet allowed for this prospective added value within their valuation of CRP at $1.76 either.


“It is submitted that CRP's proposal comes at a time when interest in methods to reduce run-off from farmland is high and only going to increase. It is a matter of priority for the Government, which is most clearly demonstrated by the New Zealand National Policy Statement for Freshwater Management 2014 (FWNPS), which regional councils must give effect through their regional plans and policy statements under sections 62(3) and 67(3) of the RMA.”

“The FWNPS will trigger further work from regional councils on managing freshwater quality. It is submitted that this NPS will provide a regulatory "push" in terms of managing freshwater quality and nutrient runoff in particular that is likely to have some impact on the market's preferences for fertiliser products.”

“Dr Mackay also described how direct application fertiliser is an agronomic option for millions of hectares of New Zealand's farm land for

(a) both hill and steep pastoral soils; and

(b) intensively farmed soils (like dairy) at the top of the pasture response curve.”

“Dr Mackay's evidence is that potential for the market for direction application is large. In his view, CRP's proposal could be a "game changer" on the market for direct application fertiliser”

[NT001]

The New Zealand "Greens" are a very special breed.... Ex Australian Communists, Ex New Labour, Ex Alliance. I reckon Green is for them just another colour to conceal the underlying "red".

Not really, BP, I'm a bit of a greenie myself but none of the things you mention, and certainly no one ever accused me of being a "red". Greenies cover a wide range (there are lots in the National Party) and many of them contribute valuably to the public discourse, so I find it not useful to dismiss them all by lumping them under one political heading. Better to address what they are actually saying, and they're far from united in opposing economic development, oil exploration, limited commercial use of conservation land etc. I think CRP has done a good job in producing submissions that address the practical issues without worrying too much whether underwater phosphate mining is going to disturb a jellyfish or taniwha.

[croesus]

With due respect NT001, your spinning for the Greens Political Party

Gareth Hughes... is anti CRP, last i heard...he represents the Green political Party on this one. they are united on that.
Not to say there arnt many Green minded people who would agree with CRP mining, its just that they wouldnt vote for a Party run by a failed Australian Communist, mired in dogma, going no where.
Almost as embarrassing as the Labour Party.
Anyway getting off topic... any one have a idea when this consent decision will be public ?

I

[NT001]

With due respect NT001, your spinning for the Greens Political Party


No, I'm not. I was talking about green-minded people, not the Green Party.

[croesus]

No, I'm not. I was talking about green-minded people, not the Green Party.

I apolgise then, unreserverdly.


Best regards K

[BFG]

I too am green minded but know that productive and sustainable economics, not "boycott everything" attitude we see, is the way forward.

Unfortunately, the more extreme you get in a group the more vocal they get. I too am absolutely sick and dusgusted of the constant naysayers, but we cannot group all of them under a single banner. 1 in 10 voted Green in the election and more are clued up with the environment and doing their bit!

[MAC]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/205538.pdf

So hang on just a minute, 20 working days from today, perhaps someone can check my humble calculation, but shouldn't that provide for an announcement on or before 15th January 2015 ?

Noting public holidays 25 & 26 December, 1 & 2 January

I still have a suspicion though that we may actually get the announcement prior to xmas, what are the odd's of otherwise getting all the DMC committe members, the EPA chairman and the ministers office staff to all work through the xmas season on this.

Couple of quick phone calls, a meeting or two, and it's xmas diner for all I reckon.

[BlackPeter]

No, I'm not. I was talking about green-minded people, not the Green Party.

This explains your previous response. Apologies that I didn't make it clear enough that I was referring to the Green Party of Aotearoa, not to green minded people.

I know that there are a lot of right minded people around caring for the environment (and I am one of them as well). Just tragic that the Green Party brass seems to have a different agenda.

[Snow Leopard]

DMC officially 'at the beach' until Monday 5th-Jan-2015 ?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[biker]

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/205538.pdf

So hang on just a minute, 20 working days from today, perhaps someone can check my humble calculation, but shouldn't that provide for an announcement on or before 15th January 2015 ?

Noting public holidays 25 & 26 December, 1 & 2 January
.

Quite right MAC. A completely contradictory announcement. How to confuse the market and its participants. Seems rather unprofessional. I hope its not indicative of the attention to detail of the DMC.

[BFG]

DMC officially 'at the beach' until Monday 5th-Jan-2015 ?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

The powers that be have much longer holidays than us mere mortals as their job is so very stress filled ;)

[barleeni]

Slight drop in the share price immediately after the announcement and quite a few more sellers at or around current value..... and I thought I was impatient!

[BlackPeter]

Quite right MAC. A completely contradictory announcement. How to confuse the market and its participants. Seems rather unprofessional. I hope its not indicative of the attention to detail of the DMC.

Ah - yes - the law says 20 working days. Given that the DMC members will have some leave over Christmas / New Year, they just added these 2 to 3 weeks to the decision period, given they don't work during that time (i.e. no working days). Standard practise for public servants, same thing for courts / public consultations / planners / ... . Be glad that they don't close down for all of January (as some public entities still do), which would have given them until mid of February.

[MAC]

Well yes, the EEZ legislation says 20 working days which must have a definition by law I guess.

But, if the EPA and DMC wish to stretch that a little in this respect, I really don't think CRP are likely to hold them to account. doubt they even considered the sharemarket for a second.

A long loose piece of string has no stress, no one wants a stressed DMC.

[NT001]

Meanwhile Trans-Tasman Resources has dropped its appeal against the DCM's rejection of its proposal to vacuum ironsands off the ocean floor in the Tasman Sea. This doesn't directly impact on the CRP application, though it would appear there could certainly be some bureaucratic problems if it's similarly turned down. Here's the well-backgrounded story filed tonight by BusinessDesk:

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1412/S00536/were-not-going-away-says-seabed-miner-as-appeal-dropped.htm

[upfrontal]

First time poster, long time reader.....
I have been following this thread for a while (having bought some CRP shares around a year ago), cried into my latte in August and slowly started smiling over the last few weeks......I share MAC's current optimism and feel that CRP has done a lot of work to get this past the finishing line.
I have discussed the effects of the consenting on the share price with a number of people and received varying estimates from 45 cents up to $1.76.
Cross fingers for a pre Christmas announcement and I just wanted to say thank you for some great discussions over the last few months.

[cammo]

Im sitting on the side of a granting of the consent with conditions....neatly tied to what has just been awarded them..... get some first year Post Grad students to undertake studies whilst they mine and evaluate in 3 years time. ;):t_up: gotta love the smell of a pseudo public-private mining model to undertake new horizon mining.

[NT001]

I have discussed the effects of the consenting on the share price with a number of people and received varying estimates from 45 cents up to $1.76.


Yes UF but in what timeframe?

[upfrontal]

Yes UF but in what timeframe?

It has varied with the higher quotes being at the start of mining in 2017. If shares are held that long then multiple other factors come into play (not least the strength of the NZ dollar).
My own rough and ready DCF came up with a share price of around $1.76 (in agreement with the upper end of the quotes I received) at commencement of mining assuming that the dollar and phosphate prices remain stable.
It is worth noting that the current low oil price may make transport of the Moroccan stuff cheaper over the next few years (I have seen a report estimating that these low prices will continue for 2 years, this ties in nicely with the start of mining), which may also affect the share price.
It was a good point raised by MAC a little while ago re political instability, once again this will affect the price of the Moroccan phosphate.

Looking at short term, I have had one person say that with consent the price will go up to between 30c to 50c, this is a little low IMO as shares were trading at 33c before the infamous EPA report was leaked.
I have looked at historical penny stock record one day gains, the highest was around 20 times in one day with 6 times being fairly common (so there is precedent for large one day gains) although these were not in mining companies.
Presuming consent is granted there will be a surge in share price, the question is how big?

[NT001]

Thanks for your full and researched answer.

[NT001]

CRP continue to issue information supporting their case - pity this wasn't available for the DMC hearing. Or maybe they did give some preliminary results.

https://www.nzx.com/companies/CRP/announcements/258904

[winner69]

Doesn't look like the champagne will be flowing before Christmas ...for me no news is good news

[BFG]

Doesn't look like the champagne will be flowing before Christmas ...for me no news is good news

Was a bit of a far flung hope after the final speeches! I like the fact that they have measurably demonstrated that Chatham phosphate is better than super or even imports. How do the Greenies expect to refute this one? To date I have yet to see them put up a single number (as usual with naysayers; all rhetoric and unsubstantiated venom).

[Baa_Baa]

... snip ... Chatham phosphate is better than super or even imports ... snip

Am I reading this incorrectly ... "The trial found the Chatham phosphate delivered on average 85% of the productivity of low-sulphur triple superphosphate."... my take is that that is 15% less productive, from the trials?

[MAC]

Hi Baa Baa,

I reckon it’s actually all very promising as the production of triple super phosphate is a very expensive chemical manufacturing process, and thus such products retail at a much higher price point than say the direct application phosphate presently imported into NZ from Morocco.

The CRP product requires relatively very little processing, it’s sucked from the ocean and just crushed, yet it may demand a relatively high price point. Thus, the gross margins could be quite extraordinary.

In addition, the CRP product may yet be deemed as ‘organic’ which may also provide a marketing advantage over chemically processed triple super phosphate.

There are a spectrum of phosphate products in the market. The Balance Agri-nutrients price list offers a feel for where the CRP product would sit.

Balance retail their triple super phosphate at $820 per tonne.

http://www.ballance.co.nz/Our-Products/PriceListing

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/205596.pdf

kind regards, Mac

[Daytr]

I would be very surprised if this got consent to proceed.
The difficulty is that there is so little known about the environment that is being disturbed & its impact on marine life etc.
This is also what TTR ran into & why underwater mining is problematic.
1) Lack of knowledge & understanding of what is being disturbed or potentially destroyed.
2) Lack of understanding of the life cycle of marine life & how things like sediment & noise pollution actually impact marine life.
3) Containment of waste and disturbance is impossible underwater.

[NT001]

No Baa Baa, triple superphosphate is a relatively highly processed product, so if raw Chatham rock phosphate can achieve 85% of what triple super achieves that's pretty impressive. Super is widely used on NZ farms but is part of the cause of nutrient runoff as it doesn't stay fixed in the soil. For a technical explanation:

Superphosphate is manufactured by reacting insoluble phosphate rock with sulfuric acid to form a mixture of soluble mono-calcium phosphate and calcium sulphate (approximately 9% phosphorous).In many other parts of the world it is more cost effective to use triple superphosphate fertiliser. In this process phosphate rock is reacted with phosphoric acid to produce a product with 21% phosphorous. However, this product does not contain sulfur whereas superphosphate contains 13% sulphur. In many parts of the world areas of sulfur deficiency are showing up, and there is a trend back to single superphosphate.

[Baa_Baa]

Thanks MAC.

So I read it correctly then(?), based solely on those test results, Super has a 15% performance advantage, ergo one requires 15% more CRP by volume, to equal the performance of Super?

If that flowed through to pricing, not taking into account relative production costs, CRP would have to retail 1.15 tonnes at $820 per tonne, to match the price/performance offered by Ballance for their Super.

Your points are well taken, I guess it all becomes clearer when one can factor in the relative mining & production costs, vis a vis the competitors products, and as you point out a possible green advantage.

Of course a permit would be handy as well.

[Baa_Baa]

No Baa Baa, triple superphosphate is a relatively highly processed product, so if raw Chatham rock phosphate can achieve 85% of what triple super achieves that's pretty impressive. Super is widely used on NZ farms but is part of the cause of nutrient runoff as it doesn't stay fixed in the soil. For a technical explanation:
snip


Thanks NT, so in order for CRP to achieve the same performance as the highly processed Super, then CRP would have to be refined in some way as well? ... Or use 15% more of CRP, with the trade off being no refining costs hence potentially a cheaper alternative to Super.

[MAC]

Yes, a process diagram like the one attached provides a good feel I find.

The CRP product is simply just crushed phosphate ore. A similar sized TSP operation would require a multimillion dollar investment in a large scale processing plant, so CRP thus do not incur the cost of such a plant or the operation costs.

6602

[winner69]

Nauru is a good example how bad mining can destroy the environment

Australian and NZ farmers happy though

[kiora]

Plus CRP contains Ca so likely it improves soil ph?

[easy money]

I would be very surprised if this got consent to proceed.
The difficulty is that there is so little known about the environment that is being disturbed & its impact on marine life etc.
This is also what TTR ran into & why underwater mining is problematic.
1) Lack of knowledge & understanding of what is being disturbed or potentially destroyed.
2) Lack of understanding of the life cycle of marine life & how things like sediment & noise pollution actually impact marine life.
3) Containment of waste and disturbance is impossible underwater.

Well be prepared to be surprised when the consent is given...not to far away now...

[cammo]

It would be interesting to see the geochemistry when it is made available. The phosphorus is bound in a type of sedimentary phosphorite compound - . Its use on land comes down to its bioavailability, which is completely different from solubility. Half the problem with superphosphate and other phosphates are that they are slightly soluble and undergo soil reactions easily, hence leaching. If the phosphorus can be applied as a crushed ore that is highly bioavailable, but much less soluble/reactive than a simple ionic phosphate, then the leaching problem is reduced.

[NT001]

Here's a report on a Radio NZ interview with Chris Castle

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/rural/261967/company-confident-it-will-mine-seabed

[kiora]

http://www.ravensdown.co.nz/nz/pages/help-and-advice/customer-information/accounts/pricing.aspx
http://www.ballance.co.nz/Our-Products/PriceListing
Note superphosphate less than 10% Phoshate

[MAC]

[Back with an adjustment]

If the application of CRP rock phosphate provides for 80% less runoff than say triple super phosphate (TSP), and CRP rock phosphate has demonstrably 85% of the productivity of TSP, then around about the same tonnage would be required to be applied to one’s farm if using CRP rock phosphate rather than TSP, acknowledging that this would be for the specific applications proposed.

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/205596.pdf

http://www.rockphosphate.co.nz/news/...n-off-says-crp (http://www.rockphosphate.co.nz/news/2013/8/19/chatham-rock-phosphate-use-would-drastically-reduce-farm-run-off-says-crp)

According to the Waikato regional council, typically 5% of phosphate runs off into waterways, thus then by calculation;

http://www.waikatoregion.govt.nz/Environment/Natural-resources/Land-and-soil/Managing-Land-and-Soil/Managing-farm-nutrients/Managing-farm-phosphorus/

The equivalent tonnage of CRP rock phosphate to displace one tonne of TSP is

= (1/0.85) x [(1–0.05)/(1-((1-0.80)x0.05))] = 112% = 1.12 tonnes

The question then becomes, what would the price point for CRP rock phosphate be if TSP retails at $800 per tonne ?

My calculator says it would be around = (800/1.12) = $708 per tonne

Farmers, given all the additional environmental benefits would you use CRP rock phosphate over TSP within the proposed applications ?

[easy money]

Looking for another good day today...Big seller at 20c has gone..the trend continues....upwards.

[BFG]

Looking for another good day today...Big seller at 20c has gone..the trend continues....upwards.

Don't be too sure, these boys love to play games with retailers. Next to no bids and volume has been extremely thin. I suspect a head fake above 20 to offload some and then slam it to buy back more before the permit announcement. Only thing that will move this stock is a goid EPA outcome; no more, no less.

[MAC]

The DMC return to work tomorrow after a self imposed four weeks at the beach, and if true to form over the last few months, there will be little regard for the timing whims of the sharemarket, and an announcement could come anytime this week, or the next, or the one after.

But What about Gareth Hughes, he went very quiet after the scientists from all representative groups at the hearing pretty much mutually agreed that the environmental impacts out there on the Chatham Rise were minimal.

I think there is genuinely an enormous opportunity here for Gareth,

Pragmatic greens, perhaps I consider myself one, may say that the global population is now so large that the world cannot go back to farming without fertilisers, a billion people might starve to death if we tried. Like it or not modern farming practices are a necessary part of human existence now.

And, now that all the gritty scientific detail has been picked over at the hearing, what a great prospect there is for a Green politician to come out and actively and practically promote a green fertiliser company which may displace those much less so in the market place.

Local, organic, low runoff, low trace element product, verses, imported chemically manufactured, lake and stream polluting product.

So Gareth,

Will you take up an opportunity to show the majority of voters that a Green politian can actually be sensible, practical and pragmatic, or would that mean you would have to abandon the myopic fringe minority whom look at corals in isolation with tunnel vision ?

kind regards, Mac

[BFG]

MAC, individuals like him will never make it in the private sector. Gareth has never had a REAL job (just like the vast majority of Green politicians). They come from a radicalised subset of higher education and only dumb it down a bit for politics because the pay is too good. They only know how to tow the party line. As such, because Gareth has put so much effort into denegrating CRP he cannot now be seen to flip-flop on the issue. I suspect he realises he sided with a much worse enemy here (trawl fishing) without actually thinking it through. As such, you will not be hearing from him again as the term "when in a hole, stop digging" definitely applies here.

I have challenged the Green Party on multiple issues through Facebook and other social media before on issues such as CRP, Russell's money printing quote and inequality, but have yet to even get one answer yet. They will only ever spill out propaganda and hope that NZers don't question it because we are a "Clean, Green Country".

Avoid the debates and hard issues and just tow the party line. That is Green Party politicians for you. Nothing will ever change.

[BFG]

Not to denigrate History majors (I am one) and Religious Studies majors (my partner is one), but does this guys CV really look private-sector ready???

https://www.greens.org.nz/candidates/gareth-hughes-mp

[NT001]

This thread is about CRP, not the policies of the Green Party or its MPs, so all I will say as an investor in CRP who wants to see it go ahead with environmental responsibility is that many of my friends who are not members of the Green Party are glad it exists to express sustainable viewpoints that would otherwise get totally steamrollered by business-oriented politicians. I think the issue here is not Gareth Hughes but how the DMC does its job.

[BFG]

This thread is about CRP, not the policies of the Green Party or its MPs, so all I will say as an investor in CRP who wants to see it go ahead with environmental responsibility is that many of my friends who are not members of the Green Party are glad it exists to express sustainable viewpoints that would otherwise get totally steamrollered by business-oriented politicians. I think the issue here is not Gareth Hughes but how the DMC does its job.

I agree.

But it is fun (and too easy) to mock them, so why not giv'er a go eh? ;)

[croesus]

Agree, with your post Snapiti, I have allowed myself to take solace from the Callahan funding.... hope so for the environments sake.
Could some one confirm , whats the last day, we must have the decision by.
Cheers

[BFG]

Agree, with your post Snapiti, I have allowed myself to take solace from the Callahan funding.... hope so for the environments sake.
Could some one confirm , whats the last day, we must have the decision by.
Cheers

Friday, 30 January, 2015

[MAC]

It’s getting to have an IPO sort of feel about it isn’t it, except for the fact that it could happen at anytime ?

Edison had value at $1.79, but I guess the company will become worth whatever price the insto's and/or other mining companies may wish to enter at following a marine consent approval.

Both Edison and Daniel Stewart tell us the company is worth $200M to $300M, that might make CRP the largest company on the NZAX, one wonders if they might even enter the NZ50 during the next year with a move to the main board.

[Antipodean]

CRP decision delayed by business days

1:15pm, 16 Jan 2015 | GENERAL

Media Release
CRP decision delayed by 6 days
16 January 2015
The Decision Making Committtee of the Environmental Protection Authority today said it would take another six working days to reach a decision on Chatham Rock Phosphate’s marine consent application. A decision is now due on or by 10 February.
The DMC announcement (repeated below) said the delay for the decision, previously expected on or before 30 January, was due to the unavailability of DMC members during December and January.
CRP Managing Director Chris Castle said while he, along with all shareholders, wants a decision as quickly as possible, he is pleased the committee is taking its time to reach what he believes will be a positive result.
“It’s a bit like exam results. We’ve know we have done the course work comprehensively, we’ve sat the exam and we know we answered everything well – now we are waiting for the results.
“We remain very confident 2015 will be an exciting year of progress for this project,” Mr Castle said.
Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited - Marine Consent Application
M22 - Minute of the Decision-making Committee – 16 January 2015
Extension of Time Limits and Decision on the Application
1. The DMC, pursuant to section 159 (1) (a) of the Exclusive Economic Zone and Continental Shelf (Environmental Effects) Act 2012 (the EEZ Act), has extended the time period in which to make a decision on the CRP marine consent application until 10 February 2015.
2. Where a hearing is held, section 68 of the EEZ Act requires that the DMC must make its decision on an application as soon a reasonably practicable and no later than 20 working days after the conclusion of the hearing. The hearing concluded on 12 December 2014. 30 January 2015 is 20 working days after the conclusion of the hearing (the EEZ Act excludes the period between 20 December and 10 January as non-working days).
3. The DMC’s consideration of this application was originally scheduled to be completed by 27 November 2014. Adjustments to the pre-hearing timetable and the deferment of the Chatham Islands hearing dates necessitated an extension of that timeframe. The timetable has also been disrupted by the unavailability of DMC members in December and January owing to prior commitments.
4. In extending the time period in which to make a decision, we have taken into account the requirements to deal with the application as promptly as is reasonable in the circumstances and to establish a procedure that is appropriate and fair, under section 40 of the EEZ Act. In addition, we have considered the matters required under sections 159 and 160 of the EEZ Act.
5. We consider that no party would be adversely affected by the extension, and that the extension serves the interests of the community in ensuring that the DMC is able to achieve an adequate assessment of the application.
For the DMC:
Neil Walter
DMC Chair
16 January 2015
Chris Castle, Managing Director +64 21 55 81 85 or chris@crpl.co.nz


Long time forum lurker, first time poster:
Disc: CRP Holding

[BFG]

CRP decision delayed by business days

1:15pm, 16 Jan 2015 | GENERAL

Media Release
CRP decision delayed by 6 days
16 January 2015
The Decision Making Committtee of the Environmental Protection Authority today said it would take another six working days to reach a decision on Chatham Rock Phosphate’s marine consent application. A decision is now due on or by 10 February.
The DMC announcement (repeated below) said the delay for the decision, previously expected on or before 30 January, was due to the unavailability of DMC members during December and January.
CRP Managing Director Chris Castle said while he, along with all shareholders, wants a decision as quickly as possible, he is pleased the committee is taking its time to reach what he believes will be a positive result.
“It’s a bit like exam results. We’ve know we have done the course work comprehensively, we’ve sat the exam and we know we answered everything well – now we are waiting for the results.
“We remain very confident 2015 will be an exciting year of progress for this project,” Mr Castle said.
Chatham Rock Phosphate Limited - Marine Consent Application
M22 - Minute of the Decision-making Committee – 16 January 2015
Extension of Time Limits and Decision on the Application
1. The DMC, pursuant to section 159 (1) (a) of the Exclusive Economic Zone and Continental Shelf (Environmental Effects) Act 2012 (the EEZ Act), has extended the time period in which to make a decision on the CRP marine consent application until 10 February 2015.
2. Where a hearing is held, section 68 of the EEZ Act requires that the DMC must make its decision on an application as soon a reasonably practicable and no later than 20 working days after the conclusion of the hearing. The hearing concluded on 12 December 2014. 30 January 2015 is 20 working days after the conclusion of the hearing (the EEZ Act excludes the period between 20 December and 10 January as non-working days).
3. The DMC’s consideration of this application was originally scheduled to be completed by 27 November 2014. Adjustments to the pre-hearing timetable and the deferment of the Chatham Islands hearing dates necessitated an extension of that timeframe. The timetable has also been disrupted by the unavailability of DMC members in December and January owing to prior commitments.
4. In extending the time period in which to make a decision, we have taken into account the requirements to deal with the application as promptly as is reasonable in the circumstances and to establish a procedure that is appropriate and fair, under section 40 of the EEZ Act. In addition, we have considered the matters required under sections 159 and 160 of the EEZ Act.
5. We consider that no party would be adversely affected by the extension, and that the extension serves the interests of the community in ensuring that the DMC is able to achieve an adequate assessment of the application.
For the DMC:
Neil Walter
DMC Chair
16 January 2015
Chris Castle, Managing Director +64 21 55 81 85 or chris@crpl.co.nz


Long time forum lurker, first time poster:
Disc: CRP Holding

Well that knocks my buying drinls for the Palmy meet right out of the water! (Excuse the pun) :p

Greetings A, hope we see more of you :)

[artemis]

Prior commitments. Hmmm, on holiday I suppose and probably known well in advance. Only a few days delay I know but the EPA is not exactly covering itself in glory so far.

[inestor88]

does any one else think this is a good sign for acceptance with conditions imposed? why need a longer time frame to decline?

[Joshuatree]

[QUOTE=Antipodean;526040]CRP decision delayed by business days

CRP Managing Director Chris Castle said while he, along with all shareholders, wants a decision as quickly as possible, he is pleased the committee is taking its time to reach what he believes will be a positive result.
“It’s a bit like exam results. We’ve know we have done the course work comprehensively, we’ve sat the exam and we know we answered everything well – now we are waiting for the results.
“We remain very confident 2015 will be an exciting year of progress for this project,” Mr Castle said.

Reminds me of a rugby game where the video ref is looking at replays of the try "scored" and the team has jogged back to halfway congratulating each other.:)

[winner69]

[QUOTE=Antipodean;526040]CRP decision delayed by business days

CRP Managing Director Chris Castle said while he, along with all shareholders, wants a decision as quickly as possible, he is pleased the committee is taking its time to reach what he believes will be a positive result.
“It’s a bit like exam results. We’ve know we have done the course work comprehensively, we’ve sat the exam and we know we answered everything well – now we are waiting for the results.
“We remain very confident 2015 will be an exciting year of progress for this project,” Mr Castle said.

Reminds me of a rugby game where the video ref is looking at replays of the try "scored" and the team has jogged back to halfway congratulating each other.:)

And the sad looks on their faces when they wander back for the scrum because the man was held up are a hoot

Champagne on ice a bit longer

[NT001]

When there aren't any tealeaves toread, just read 'em anyway.

[inestor88]

NT and winner, you guys holding?

just new member to ST myself

holding a bit myself obviously and hoping for the best

[NT001]

NT and winner, you guys holding?

Yes of course. See post 641. I still have vivid memories of my dad telling me over 60 years ago how Albert Ellis (later Sir Albert) stubbed his toe on a rock being used as a doorstop in his office, had a close look at it and determined it was near pure phosphate from Nauru. That was the start of the Nauru phosphate industry (some would say pillage) that transformed NZ farming. So I couldn't let this opportunity pass.

[upfrontal]

Media Release : CRP decision delayed by 6 days

An unforeseen development which to me suggests that the decision will be contentious (not that it was ever going to be anything different) and they want to make sure all the language in the report is correct and not open to interpretation or challenge. As much as I would like to forecast this is a positive development (I am a shareholder in CRP), I can't read too much into it.

I agree with Artemis that this does not reflect well on the EPA, after the leaking of the preliminary report back in August last year and now this.......

Crossing my fingers, I draw solace from the successful allocation of Callaghan Funding.........

[winner69]

NT and winner, you guys holding?

just new member to ST myself

holding a bit myself obviously and hoping for the best

Champagne will be opened somewhere in Ghuznee St

[easy money]

the panel of judges are selected(employed) by the EPA........ so I can not see the panel coming out and openly criticizing the hand that feeds them (but it should)
How do you tell the hand that feeds you that they are a bunch of over paid knuckle heads that have done a very underwhelming job.

Unfortunately the last reply from the EPA in reference to the last submission of conditions from CRP had comments attached to every condition, many of which read not a workable condition or not enough evidence provided.
The EPA are proactive in finding reasons for the approval not to happen.......

watch the share price carefully as this process has many moving parts and know doubt leakage will occur.

Share price up again today...must be a good sign.

[BFG]

Share price up again today...must be a good sign.

Sure it's not a "buy the rumour, sell the fact" run?

Someone be playing games here!

[inestor88]

any one know much about the dmc chair neil walter?

[NT001]

any one know much about the dmc chair neil walter?

Here's the official note on Neil Walter, taken from the EPA website's listing of the full DCM panel which is at

<http://www.epa.govt.nz/EEZ/chatham_rock_phosphate/lodgement_notification/Pages/Committee-members.aspx>Neil Walter (Chair)




A former career diplomat, Neil Walter served as Ambassador to Japan and Indonesia and was Chief Executive and Secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade from 2009 to 2012. He chaired the Environmental Risk Management Authority (one of the EPA’s predecessor agencies) from 2003 to 2008 and the New Zealand Broadcasting Commission from 2007 to 2012. He holds NZ Institute of Directors’ certificates in directorship and chairing a board and a Cranfield School of Management certificate. He has served as a director on a number of public sector boards and brings wide governance and management experience to this role.

[Joshuatree]

winner 69
"And the sad looks on their faces when they wander back for the scrum because the man was held up are a hoot"


Agreed ,which way will it be called.? If its accepted with achievable conditions thats one hurdle over and a few more to come to successful viable production and sales. Will the s/p rise a lot, a little or is it partially built in to the s/p and profit taking initially ; on consent, by some.

[MAC]

Despite the delays, he does seem to be willing to move forward with due consideration, I didn’t get that sense from the TTR debacle, it seemed that the DMC hearing TTR had somewhat decided on an outcome quite early on and were just doing time to see out the process.

I don’t think the TTR DMC would have agreed to disallow the EPA staff to make final recommendations, he didn’t have to do that, and it probably took some degree of careful dialogue internally within the EPA corridors.

[MAC]

CRP have switched from Edison to the UK based analyst Daniel Stewart for the prospective dual listing on the AIM exchange, but here’s the 2014 Edison report for those whom haven’t a copy.

http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/?ACT=18&ID=12017

[Joshuatree]

JT the share price will at least double from this level if a consent is granted with achievable conditions.
Don't forget though the EPA mandate is to be cautious and conservative.

Cheers ; and if consent is not received id hate to be holding.Goodluck for a trade.

[Antipodean]

Forecast CRP financial benefit from currency movements

11:46am, 27 Jan 2015 | FORECAST

Media Release
Forecast CRP project financials benefit significantly from exchange rate changes
27 January 2015
Chatham Rock Phosphate today released updated key figures related to the financial forecasts for its project following the recent strengthening of the United States dollar, relative to both the Euro and New Zealand dollar.
A core assumption to the company’s project revenues are that they priced in US dollars and that most operating costs are denominated in Euros. A result of the recent foreign exchange movements is that all key revenue and profit numbers are therefore significantly higher, particularly in New Zealand dollar terms. This is compared to the forecasts included in our market announcement of 23 October when CRP provided a range of financial estimates during its marine consent application hearing to the Environmental Protection Authority. The figures were provided then to clarify some uninformed comments that arose during the hearing and to ensure there was a properly informed market for the company’s shares. A decision on the marine consent is due by 10 February.
In the light of the significant changes to the exchange rates, CRP believes it is timely to update those key numbers relating to indicative project economics and cost structures. Shareholders are cautioned that while this demonstrates the positive effect that a high US dollar and low Euro can have on the economics of our project, adverse movements in these currencies can of course have adverse effects on these economics.
Based on existing revenue and cost assumptions, the projected annual profit before royalties is now estimated to be USD69 million (NZD93 million), up from USD54 million (NZD 68 million) announced in October. Expressed in New Zealand dollar terms this is a 36.8% increase in the projected trading result before royalties and taxes. This figure is calculated after deducting estimated contract dredging costs, incoming port charges, environmental monitoring costs, community contributions, biodiversity offset costs and business overheads.
From this estimated profit Chatham now expects to annually pay royalties of USD6.9 million (NZD9.3 million) up from the previous estimate of USD5.4 million or NZD6.8 million, and USD17.4 million or NZD23.5 million in income tax (previously USD13.6 million or NZD17.2m).
Over an expected project life of 15 years CRP now expects to earn tax paid profits of USD673 million or NZD905 million, up from October estimates of US525 million or NZD663 million. Based on the updated exchange rates, total royalties would be USD104 million or NZD140 million, up from USD81 million or NZD102 million, and income tax would be USD262 million or NZD352 million (previously USD 204 million or NZD 258 million) during the 15 year period.
Valuing CRP on an EBIT (earnings before income and tax) multiple of 6 (which could be considered reasonable for international fertiliser companies) places a value for the company of NZD503
million when the company is in production (expected in 2017/18), compared with a current market capitalisation of NZD42 million.
Stakeholders are encouraged to review our announcement of 23 October when considering this announcement as it included additional assumptions relevant to these forecasts.
Chris Castle, Managing Director +64 21 55 81 85 or chris@crpl.co.nz
Warning - Forward Looking Statements
This release contains forward looking statements. Forward-looking statements and information are not historical facts, are made as of the date of this release, and include, but are not limited to, statements regarding discussions of future plans, guidance, projections, objectives, estimates and forecasts and statements as to CRP's expectations with respect to, among other things, mineral properties and the matters described in this release.
These forward looking statements involve numerous risks and uncertainties and actual results may vary. Important factors that may cause actual results to vary include without limitation, the timing and receipt of certain approvals, changes in commodity prices, changes in interest and currency exchange rates, risks inherent in exploration results, timing and success, inaccurate geological and metallurgical assumptions (including with respect to the size, grade and recoverability of mineral reserves and resources), changes in development or mining plans due to changes in logistical, technical or other factors, unanticipated operational difficulties (including failure of plant, equipment or processes to operate in accordance with specifications, cost escalation, unavailability of materials, equipment and third party contractors, delays in the receipt of government approvals, industrial disturbances or other job action, and unanticipated events related to health, safety and environmental matters), political risk, social unrest, and changes in general economic conditions or conditions in the financial markets.


Positive news but currencies change all the time. Still waiting for Feb 10.

Disc: Still holding.

[BFG]

Dear Chris

I have noted your latest CRP announcement. Unfortunately, I am loathe to point out that CRP does not have any revenue, let alone a permit yet, and will not do so for the foreseeable future.

I am also loathe to point out that currency fluctuations are highly regular in the global economy and that your models should consequently have multiple ranges and margins of error, not just a "one-size fits all" current forecast.

Finally, it seems that under your directorships the companies have a habit of trying to spruik the share price when good news is forthcoming. I noted the apparent glee with which you notified the market, almost on a daily basis, of AORs NTA value because of its holdings in Mosman oil were soaring during exploration. It has also been duly noted that these announcements ceased as the share price declined from above 40 pence to about 6 now.

I'm sure, as all of us are financially literate (mostly...), that we can come up with our own basic, unbiased FA spreadsheets.

Sincerely,

Reality Bites

[MAC]

That’s long run rates rather than short term Moosie, across the 15 year mine life, all sensitivity analysis at the end of the day, and yes who really knows where rates will be in 5 years let alone 15, but there must be some assumptions made.

It’s all about valuation setting and getting matters right ahead of the AIM listing I reckon, CRP are probably working to the advice of the UK broker working up valuations about now ahead of the UK IPO in a couple of months.

It would be nice to know what rates they are applying though, will have to wait for the broker’s report I guess. But, running my DCF on USD0.71, EUR0.61, it all looks pretty good.

If the rumours of M&A before xmas come into play, I wouldn't be surprised to see a post AIM listing offer above $1.20 actually.

[NT001]

Wow Moosie, did you manage to talk the SP down today?

Ah well, I poured myself another drink and took solace from MAC's reassurances.

[MAC]

I don’t think anyone could be seriously that interested the day trading activity of a wee totally illiquid broken NZAX market at the end of the world, especially not at pre marine consent loose change levels.

The AIM listing if nothing else may allow for a bit more turnover and a fair value for budding international phosphate marketing company to arise.

I’ve my own analysis and figure, CRP’s $503M valuation is a bit higher, would need more base info I think to comment on it though, and/or that broker’s report, should be interesting NT.

[easy money]

Hi Mossie...does this mean you are trying to quietly build a stake in this company..before they get the permit.

[Joshuatree]

Just one more attempting to influence the video ref ehh:).
Maybe preface it with

"These forward looking statements involve numerous risks and uncertainties and actual results may vary.....etc.

​Unless you've borrowed a TARDUS ;)

[BFG]

Hi Mossie...does this mean you are trying to quietly build a stake in this company..before they get the permit.

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha !

No.

I think it says something when even an avowed young risk-taking trader won't touch the stock, but a long-term investor will insist it's worth buying in NOW for an event which no one has any control over, nor inkling of which way it will go.

The risks are unmanageable imho and even at 5 cents with $500 loose change I'd still have to think long and hard about it. It's gambling, not calculated risk-taking, pure and simple, and I don't do that (and I HATE it when others say the stock market is gambling so that's saying a lot!).

I truly hope CRP succeed, for the benefit of NZ and to curb stomp the propagandist Greens, but CCs track record and the EPAs crazy talk give me no confidence whatsoever. Statistics say this one is a no-go in my books.

Hope that helps you understand where I'm coming from. :)

[easy money]

Well that's a fair comment...we will all know in a short while.

[MAC]

Yep, fair enough, high risk high reward's not for everyone, that’s why most might be happier entering after the announcement and why the NZAX SP is presently at loose change.

Some will have consenting or scientific exp and will be expert enough to have a better feel for the efficacy of the case for a marine consent, but then some folk other than myself say that research is just confirmation bias.

But yes, so much hangs on the outcome of the announcement, tick tock,

Not just the Chatham Rise venture but also the experience and reputation it would bring in pursuing subsequent ventures also including the Namibian permit applications, and it’s probably not lost on anyone that the Namibian moratorium period lapses just before the AIM listing.

Also in respect to M&A, a company that may be successful in working through scientific debate well enough to get consent in the hardest place in the world to do so may be quite attractive when a new marine mining sector is in formation.

A fully permitted, consented, JORC resource on the Chatham Rise with prospectively the top global marine mining operator in control should be quite attractive to UK mining sector investors IMO.

CRP have told us the IPO will be a book build, and as they are not intending to raise that much capital in the big picture, I think post consent they will get it quite easily actually.

CRP told us today that they believe the company (without Namibian prospects) to be worth $503M.

Allowing for dilution that would be a listing price of a little over NZ$2.00, but the company is still two years away from operating, but a Namibian permit might also work up in that timeframe too though.

I wouldn’t be surprised one bit to see them list on the AIM upward of say $1.20

[Brain]

$1.20 would be good. The options would then be worth $0.50 .
Brain

[BFG]

Great vote of confidence from one of the Director's today...

https://nzx.com/files/attachments/207245.pdf

[BlackPeter]

Great vote of confidence from one of the Director's today...

https://nzx.com/files/attachments/207245.pdf

Ouch ... either she must have needed the money (all $19.527 and 23 cents) really urgently (to feed her kids or something like that) or she has an inkling? Just wondering - why did she keep the last 8843 shares - she could still lose this money ....

[winner69]

Ouch ... either she must have needed the money (all $19.527 and 23 cents) really urgently (to feed her kids or something like that) or she has an inkling? Just wondering - why did she keep the last 8843 shares - she could still lose this money ....

Some of those were sold last October - no disclosure then?

Looks like she has kept the Family Trust 120k odd

[MAC]

It must be idle Saturday afternoon speculation time.

Last September CRP advised;

“Chatham Rock has been in discussions with a publically quoted company with respect to a potential merger transaction. These discussions are at an early stage, on-going and at present no agreement has been reached - binding or non-binding - on the terms of such a transaction. Should these discussions progress to a documented stage a market announcement will be made giving further details”

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/200093.pdf

Then in December they advised;

“Chatham Rock Phosphate (CRP) commissioned Lincoln University and AgResearch to undertake trials in a glasshouse over a period of four months to assess the effectiveness on plant productivity of rock phosphate from the Chatham Rise, east of New Zealand. The trials also tested rock phosphate sourced from a Mexican marine phosphate deposit”

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/205596.pdf

Well, one could suggest that the Mexican rock is from Oceanica, the other company with the same major shareholders and prospective operator as CRP, Subsea, Odyssey and Boskalis. I’m sure CRP are not just charitably extensively testing the product properties of another company along with their own.

I wonder a little too about the AIM listing also, CRP could raise any remaining capital relatively easily with a marine consent in their hand, I don’t think an AIM listing is entirely necessary at this time aside from facilitating some form of transaction ?

[BFG]

Looks like everyone and their dog has been issued with shares in CRP the past year...

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/207419.pdf

[BlackPeter]

Looks like everyone and their dog has been issued with shares in CRP the past year...

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/207419.pdf

I think they tend to pay their contractors in shares ... though just wondering, what the Psychiatric Service did to earn their cut?

[Balance]

Anyone who has dealt with government agencies knows from experience that delays usually mean they are polishing up their rejections.

Watch and learn.

[BFG]

...though just wondering, what the Psychiatric Service did to earn their cut?

That would be to console shareholders once the rejection letter comes through, and to prepare them for more dilution when it gets taken to the HC ;)

[NT001]

Anyone who has dealt with government agencies knows from experience that delays usually mean they are polishing up their rejections. Watch and learn.

They did give a specific reason for the delay, and it wasn't that they needed more time to polish up their conclusions. Some of the panel were simply unavailable, for reasons that made sense even though they were frustrating.

[Brain]

The way I read it the only share placement for services rendered was to Wimmer Financial. For all other placements the company received cash.

[skid]

I think they tend to pay their contractors in shares ... though just wondering, what the Psychiatric Service did to earn their cut?

Sometimes they are the most important members of the team(I mean that only partly sarcastically)

[MAC]

Mr Castle's putting feelers out there for a new job....why else would you be helping the opposition

www.nzx.com/companies/CRP/announcements/260314 (http://www.nzx.com/companies/CRP/announcements/260314)

This is why;

http://www.rockphosphate.co.nz/news/2013/8/19/17pbq534v9vnyftj1o077mvoyf2hp0

The 18 month moratorium period that the Namibian govt allocated for their environmental review is up in a just a few weeks, just before the AIM IPO listing for those joining the dots.

The Namibian govt engaged SINTEF, a Norwegian consultant, to prepare a draft report, it's an interesting read for those with time, CRP are mentioned 24 times within it. They seem to be watching what happens here in NZ as a test case.

The CRP Namibian permit applications are located per diagram below;

6735

[BlackPeter]

Mr Castle's putting feelers out there for a new job....why else would you be helping the opposition

www.nzx.com/companies/CRP/announcements/260314

Not sure, given that CRP have seabed mining interests in Namibia as well, there might be as well a more harmless explanation ... if I would be him, I would be delighted to help the authorities to define the process I am afterwards required to follow. Wouldn't you?

[croesus]

All due respect "Snapiti",,,, predicament... is a bit strong.. lets wait a week and see whats happening with the Permit.

Its not a "predicament " yet. !!

[NT001]

Right now I most certainly would be looking for new work........ given a very biased Government department(EPA) is about to make a decision on my current job

Such prejudgmentalism is not a very rational basis for assessing the likely outcome or for predicting Mr Christie's future. The DMC is about to announce a decision but it's not a decision on Christie's job, it's a decision on the CRP application. There can be a whole range of outcomes, including a less than fully favourable one which may not be the end of the world and could lead to an appeal or to further negotiations on conditions. I imagine that if approval is granted, there will be a lot of people in the environmental lobby who will be alleging bias, citing for example the government's obvious support for the proposal as indicated by the Callaghan Institute's financial award to CRP at a crucial point in the hearings. That decision outraged the environmental and leftist lobby.

The EPA is not a government department but a crown agency, run by a board whose members come predominantly from a business management background, reflecting the government's wish that environmental decisions take developmental factors strongly into account. None of the EPA board are raving environmental lunatics. The board has in turn delegated the decision on CRP's application to a committee whose membership contains a range of business, technical and environmental specialists, as one would expect.

Let's just wait.

[artemis]

If consent with conditions is granted, there will be over time be actual on site evidence on impacts. Which would be useful input to any future application, here or elsewhere.

[kanaka]

Such prejudgmentalism is not a very rational basis for assessing the likely outcome or for predicting Mr Christie's future. The DMC is about to announce a decision but it's not a decision on Christie's job, it's a decision on the CRP application. There can be a whole range of outcomes, including a less than fully favourable one which may not be the end of the world and could lead to an appeal or to further negotiations on conditions. I imagine that if approval is granted, there will be a lot of people in the environmental lobby who will be alleging bias, citing for example the government's obvious support for the proposal as indicated by the Callaghan Institute's financial award to CRP at a crucial point in the hearings. That decision outraged the environmental and leftist lobby.

The EPA is not a government department but a crown agency, run by a board whose members come predominantly from a business management background, reflecting the government's wish that environmental decisions take developmental factors strongly into account. None of the EPA board are raving environmental lunatics. The board has in turn delegated the decision on CRP's application to a committee whose membership contains a range of business, technical and environmental specialists, as one would expect.

Let's just wait.

Amen......

[MAC]

Seems that the Namibian govt are on schedule in assessing their EIA evaluation;

“The much-awaited Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) report on planned marine phosphate mining off the country’s coast is expected to be released later this month”

http://www.newera.com.na/2015/02/05/phosphate-mining-report-expected-month/

The link to the draft SINTEF report is below for those looking for a read over the long weekend.

http://www.sintef.com/contentassets/0041eea1c5dc4e908ae94f71aa4d5453/sintef-report-f-26339-draft20141117.pdf

[NT001]

are you serious............ there are many shade's of green but at the end of the day they are still all green
You only need to read the reports put out by the EPA about the CRP application to fully understand that the EPA is full of white collared do it by the text book government employed workers with a mandate to take a very cautious approach. The EPA also hand pick the DMC.

Yes, the EPA board, which is not packed with greenies, "hand picks" the DMC. And I seem to recall that the DMC actually restrained an attempt by "textbook government employed workers" (EPA bueaucrats) to negatively influence this process. It's the DMC's decision, not the EPA's.

You seem to assume that anyone with any shade of green thinking is some kind of extremist nutter and should not be allowed anywhere near the process, and will be against the proposal. I don't buy that. There are a couple of members of the DMC who I can see possibly raising issues about the rights of fish and birds and tangata whenua. But they will have to argue their case within the DMC against some economic and business realists, and my guess would be that chairman Neil Walter, a highly experienced negotiator, will see the big picture and guide the DMC towards an overall rational decision. Even if it is not totally unanimous on all points and leaves some issues open for further negotiation. But of course I could be wrong. We're all guessing for another few days.

[MAC]

Yes, the EPA board, which is not packed with greenies, "hand picks" the DMC. And I seem to recall that the DMC actually restrained an attempt by "textbook government employed workers" (EPA bueaucrats) to negatively influence this process. It's the DMC's decision, not the EPA's.

You seem to assume that anyone with any shade of green thinking is some kind of extremist nutter and should not be allowed anywhere near the process, and will be against the proposal. I don't buy that. There are a couple of members of the DMC who I can see possibly raising issues about the rights of fish and birds and tangata whenua. But they will have to argue their case within the DMC against some economic and business realists, and my guess would be that chairman Neil Walter, a highly experienced negotiator, will see the big picture and guide the DMC towards an overall rational decision. Even if it is not totally unanimous on all points and leaves some issues open for further negotiation. But of course I could be wrong. We're all guessing for another few days.

And of course it's a reasonably well balanced application anyway with both environmental effects and benefits, the environmental benefits to NZ out weigh the effects IMO.

How to do see the forward schedule NT001, something like this ?

Marine consent (DMC willing) announcement – 11th February
Boskalis FID announcement – February/March
Namibian EIA announcement – late February
CRP Namibian permit application announcement ? – March
Ag research study results outcome announcement ? – March
UK broker prospectus issue - March
AIM book build – March
AIM exchange IPO – April

[kanaka]

Just ahead of CRP’s big day tomorrow I would like to thank all the contributors to this thread for their input. I came to this forum after searching for an un-biased opinion on CRP and their prospects. Trawling through all your comments and with my naturally optimistic take on life I decided to take a punt.
I got interested in fertilizers after BHP’s unsuccessful foray into Canada’s Potash Corporation of a few years ago and thought that if the world’s biggest miner was interested then there must be an upside in the commodity and have been looking for a play.
Tomorrow will see how much of a play it will be but at least I’m set and ready to party when the right decision comes in. Did I mention about my optimistic nature?
Thanks guys

[winner69]

Just ahead of CRP’s big day tomorrow I would like to thank all the contributors to this thread for their input. I came to this forum after searching for an un-biased opinion on CRP and their prospects. .......


Totally unbiased? Yeah right

Our champagne on ice as well ..... ready for a quite get together in Ghuznee St tomorrow

[MAC]

Just ahead of CRP’s big day tomorrow I would like to thank all the contributors to this thread for their input. I came to this forum after searching for an un-biased opinion on CRP and their prospects. Trawling through all your comments and with my naturally optimistic take on life I decided to take a punt.
I got interested in fertilizers after BHP’s unsuccessful foray into Canada’s Potash Corporation of a few years ago and thought that if the world’s biggest miner was interested then there must be an upside in the commodity and have been looking for a play.
Tomorrow will see how much of a play it will be but at least I’m set and ready to party when the right decision comes in. Did I mention about my optimistic nature?
Thanks guys

They have done well to patiently work through the all process and debates.

Come what may tomorrow and whatever the outcome may actually be, they have done the hard yards and deserve an opportunity to become well, just a sustainable day to day phosphate business benefiting New Zealand and New Zealanders.

I don’t know or really care what the fickle broken NZAX will do tomorrow, just having a marine consent in the bag will be enough cause for celebration for now, the AIM book build and IPO will be more important though.

Good luck to Chatham Rock Phosphate and all patient shareholders.

[biker]

.........I got interested in fertilizers after BHP’s unsuccessful foray into Canada’s Potash Corporation of a few years ago and thought that if the world’s biggest miner was interested then there must be an upside in the commodity and have been looking for a play.........


Have you had a look at ELM on the ASX?

[MAC]

The decision should be here (http://www.epa.govt.nz/EEZ/chatham_rock_phosphate/decision/Pages/CRP_decision.aspx) sometime tomorrow, probably late in the day if the EPA are true to form;

http://www.epa.govt.nz/EEZ/chatham_rock_phosphate/decision/Pages/CRP_decision.aspx

[croesus]

They have done well to patiently work through the all process and debates.

Come what may tomorrow and whatever the outcome may actually be, they have done the hard yards and deserve an opportunity to become well, just a sustainable day to day phosphate business benefiting New Zealand and New Zealanders.

I don’t know or really care what the fickle broken NZAX will do tomorrow, just having a marine consent in the bag will be enough cause for celebration for now, the AIM book build and IPO will be more important though.

Good luck to Chatham Rock Phosphate and all patient shareholders.

Cheers Mac, well said.

[NT001]

Pretty quiet day for CRP shares so far. Buy 19c, sell 20c. No signs of a leak or heightened speculative trading, which is good.

[Antipodean]

It's been a fun ride. I'm still holding. See you gentlemen on the other side.

[biker]

They have done well to patiently work through the all process and debates.

Come what may tomorrow and whatever the outcome may actually be, they have done the hard yards and deserve an opportunity to become well, just a sustainable day to day phosphate business benefiting New Zealand and New Zealanders.

I don’t know or really care what the fickle broken NZAX will do tomorrow, just having a marine consent in the bag will be enough cause for celebration for now, the AIM book build and IPO will be more important though.

Good luck to Chatham Rock Phosphate and all patient shareholders.

Thanks MAC

[biker]

Trading halt ...........

Does this means the company has been told of a negative decision and wants to limit the down side?
Because if they do know and it is positive then surely halting trading would not be the thing to do.
I don't like the look of this.

[babymonster]

either positive or negative, they have to do a trading halt..

[hilskin]

Good luck everybody, fingers crossed that the right decision is made :-)

[ziggy415]

Trading halt ...........

Does this means the company has been told of a negative decision and wants to limit the down side?
Because if they do know and it is positive then surely halting trading would not be the thing to do.
I don't like the look of this.
I have a sell order on market and my broker rings to see if i want it left in place....never happened before...

[Absolute144]

I have a sell order on market and my broker rings to see if i want it left in place....never happened before...


Happen to me too. Maybe we have the same broker company and they are expecting a system crash with the heavy trading expected to take place :ohmy:

[bucko]

http://www.epa.govt.nz/EEZ/chatham_rock_phosphate/decision/Pages/CRP_decision.aspx so it was declined?

[bucko]

cant help but agree with the Director here:

“It will make it even harder, if not impossible for companies to attract capital for new projects in New Zealand. As the second application of its kind there have been some improvements in the process and were able to learn a lot and apply those lessons. If we can’t succeed having invested $33 million over seven years, then obviously the government is not serious about economic development.”
“We had a strong level of agreement by scientific and other experts from both sides that the environmental effects were either limited or manageable.”
“Obviously we need to take a bit of time to digest what the decision means and what our next steps will be, the options being an appeal, resubmitting, or walking away.”
“To say we are bitterly disappointed is an understatement. We are aghast. The entire government process, and the EPA in particular, seems afraid to say yes to any project that involves any kind of environmental impact and that is simply not good enough if we are to provide a future for our country’s young people.”

[bull....]

yes anything that has a big impact on the environment is doomed except maybe dairy farming

[Joshuatree]

"The DMC also concluded that the economic benefit to New Zealand of the proposal would be modest at best."

[BlackPeter]

Shame ... A sad day for New Zealand's economical future. Lose - lose. And if the green brigades think it was a win for them, than they should consider who will be paying their (and their childrens) sickness benefits, unemployment benefits and salaries after the last investor has left the country.

[Arbitrage]

The Fishing Industry will be happy.

[Balance]

Anyone who has dealt with government agencies knows from experience that delays usually mean they are polishing up their rejections.

Watch and learn.

Hope someone now has learnt from this experience.

I missed an opportunity to lock in some really nice gains once waiting for a regulatory approval which was delayed time and again. The company in question kept reassuring us shareholders all was fine.

History repeats itself.

[whatsup]

How much money have they left after the dust settles ?

[babymonster]

omg.............

[babymonster]

1c now.. the sp.. sigh..

[MAC]

Ah well, c’est la vie, move onto the next one I guess.

The optimist in me might say though that a conciliatory regulatory process may first require a refusal, then an appeal, and then a second fresh look at it all, who would really know.

The EPA, at this point in time though does seem to have been established entirely for the purpose of declining applications.

If it is a political intention by the government not to grant marine consents, then the government should make legislation clear so that companies like Trans-Tasman and Chatham Rock may not start to even commence spending/wasting millions of dollars.

I imagine Nick Smith will receive 1,200 angry emails today from shocked ‘mum and dad’ shareholders, rightfully so too I think. n.smith@ministers.govt.nz

[winner69]

Champagne time

Good the effort I put into a submission wasn't wasted ...it may even have been read

[whatsup]

How much money have they left after the dust settles ?

About 200 K from what I can see, imho .01 is overpriced now, where to from here?

[Absolute144]

The optimist in me might say though that a conciliatory regulatory process may first require a refusal, then an appeal, and then a second fresh look at it all, who would really know.



Agreed, government doesnt like efficiency, they like your tax dollars.

[NT001]

I would think Steven Joyce is among those who are aghast at this decision. Even Nick Smith might think the rules are too restrictive. CC's statement that effectively it means NZ is closed for business on any project involving environmental issues will be very strongly supported by the broader business community. I wouldn't be surprised if the government decides to take another look at the EPA's terms of reference in the light of this decision, just as it is significantly altering the balance in the RMA between development and environmental issues.

My guess is that this isn't over, certainly not at this stage anyway. An appeal or resubmissiion (especially if the rules are tweaked) must both be considered strong options. There would be costs involved, but nothing like those for the first submission.

[MAC]

I would think Steven Joyce is among those who are aghast at this decision. Even Nick Smith might think the rules are too restrictive. CC's statement that effectively it means NZ is closed for business on any project involving environmental issues will be very strongly supported by the broader business community. I wouldn't be surprised if the government decides to take another look at the EPA's terms of reference in the light of this decision, just as it is significantly altering the balance in the RMA between development and environmental issues.

My guess is that this isn't over, certainly not at this stage anyway. An appeal or resubmissiion (especially if the rules are tweaked) must both be considered strong options. There would be costs involved, but nothing like those for the first submission.

That seems to be Trans Tasman's approach, they invested even more, crica $50M or so I think, so another couple of million on a re-application, rather than on an appeal, probably seems a fair prospect to them.

It might even be that the two companies will lobby together now also.

Business aside though, I think it's a loss to NZ, just think about all those rivers, lakes and streams that could have been partly or even completely cleaned up with this sort of product displacing higher run off fertilizers, shame really, I think in years to come a greater focus will come onto dairy industry environmental practices.

[youngatheart]

Having just picked up a swathe of cheap AOR and CRPOB shares for a song just now, even a hint of 'positive' news could see me make back my loss on my moderate holding of CRP. I see bad news followed by a hint of good news as a wonderful opportunity... :)

[Daytr]

Not wanting to submit salt in any wounds, but it was always very likely this application would fail especially after what we saw in regards the TTR application was rejected last year. This application was inadequate & to say that the environmental impact was mitigated in the application is a far stretch from the truth when in fact they actually know very little about what would be destroyed. I have 20 years in the mining game, however it needs to be done appropriately where the environmental impact is the least & can be contained & that clearly wasn't the case here. I'm glad we have a strong EPA that stands up to any pressure from a very pro government.

[whatsup]

Having just picked up a swathe of cheap AOR and CRPOB shares for a song just now, even a hint of 'positive' news could see me make back my loss on my moderate holding of CRP. I see bad news followed by a hint of good news as a wonderful opportunity... :)

YOU DID WHAT !!!! omg !!

[jonu]

Having just picked up a swathe of cheap AOR and CRPOB shares for a song just now, even a hint of 'positive' news could see me make back my loss on my moderate holding of CRP. I see bad news followed by a hint of good news as a wonderful opportunity... :)

Them's some serious cojones you be dangling there

[youngatheart]

YOU DID WHAT !!!! omg !!
A small gamble with a smallish amount that I deemed worth at least having a punt on. Unlike Roadrunner I didn't mortgage the house and sell the car.. lol... :)

[Harvey Specter]

Every time I tried to look at this, I saw an invisible 'a' in the stock ticker. Looks like my subconscious was spot on the money. Cant comment any further as I never got past the ticker to see what they did.

[youngatheart]

And why not have a punt with CRPOB as it's a full year before any extra payment is due (and a year as we know can be a loooong time in this fast paced industry)...

[NT001]

Interesting comment from Gary Taylor of the Environmental Defence Society (which of course opposed the CRP application):

“When a decision-making committee is left with a lack of certainty about the adverse effects of a proposal on the environment it is required to favour caution and environmental protection.

“What the refusal of this application and the earlier one by Trans Tasman Resources (for sand mining off the west coast of the North Island) demonstrates is a clear need for a planning framework for our exclusive economic zone. It is a big ask to expect an applicant for a single project to provide all the baseline information required in the absence of any strategic planning guidance as to what kind of activities are acceptable and where.


“A system of marine spatial planning, based on good quality science, is needed to resolve potential conflict between potential users of the marine environment. In this case, for example, the mining was over a benthic protection area, set aside under different legislation.


“Finally we acknowledge that Chatham Rock Phosphate principals have put an enormous amount of effort into this project and to give credit where it is due, the level of interaction and consultation with us has been exemplary. We understand that they will be disappointed but this is the right outcome,” Mr Taylor concluded.

[Daytr]

Thanks Newguy. My point exactly. How can you rule in favour when there is so little actually known about the environment that is being disturbed or even destroyed? An applicant can be as consultative as they like & present a very strong case on economics etc. (not that they did here) but without that baseline understanding of the actual environment being disturbed or the impact how can anyone grant an application.
With the TTR application I likened the distribution of waste if on land, injecting all the sediment into a giant fan & allowing it to settle where ever the wind took it. On land that would ever be allowed & just because its hidden under the ocean doesn't mean it should be either.
Joyce & the likes can pull their heads in. The rules aren't there to change just because they don't like the outcome they are there to protect the environment from ill thought out propositions & short termism profiteering for a few at the expense of the environment.

[macduffy]

I never bought CRP because I couldn't see how mining the Chatham Rise for phosphate could compete economically with the large scale mines in Australia, Canada, North Africa etc. Some freight cost advantage in respect of the NZ market I suppose - but otherwise?

What were the assumptions here?

[Food4Thought]

Perhaps if they started exploiting a field of investment that was actually health focused and environmentally helpful, these guys would not keep throwing money after more money into lost projects. Chris Castle doesn't have a very positive outcome for investors from what I have seen over the last 10+ years (which is only short in comparison to many of the sharetrader members I know). His pockets are happily lined, and majority of investors are usually out of pocket by the end result. I don't like losing money, or seeing others lose it, but this is one share I put in the too risky basket, and I have a reasonably high tolerance for risk. All the best to those in it. I recon the timing for this stock is in the getting out phase, carefully. And once again, the method of making money is not one that I personally consider to be an ethical decision. Disclosure, have not, and will not own a share in a company I consider to be environmentally irresponsibly to the ocean.

[IAK]

Them's some serious cojones you be dangling there
Too true lol.

[Snow Leopard]

7037
The CRP Slayer: Goniocorella dumosa (http://invertebrates.si.edu/antiz/taxon_view.cfm?ScreenWidth=1101&ScreenHeight=991&MODE=taxon&taxon=5666)

Aided by a Benthic Protection Area and the fact that economic experts can never agree on anything

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[goldfish]

Sad, but not surprised, thats why I pulled out my small investment after reading the epa first come back and what there criteria was, basically they where never going to have enough proof, no matter what, it was ridiculous the amount of info they wanted.
The reality is its going to release a small plume of mud in the middle of nowhere, thats basically it, one fishing boat would do more damage to the bottom in one day then this was going to do in years of mining. Speaking as both a dredger and x commercial fisherman.
The epa is a joke that will say no to anything with mining in it, even when its good for the environment, arent some of them green party members, that leaked this info months ago anyway, bias anyone?
The only good thing that may come out of this is will be if the epa is disbanded.

[BlackPeter]

Interesting depth: 3.5 Million Bids (at average 0.3 cents), but only 1.6 (odd) million Sells (at average 7 cents). Somebody seems to smell a deep value game?

Discl: 2 hot 4 me.

[Daytr]

Are you serious? Luckily it people who actually understand the likely impact that make these decisions.
Middle of no-where huh. What is that supposed to mean. Easy one liner that has no actual bearing.
Listen to your self. " one fishing boat would do more damage to the bottom in one day then this was going to do in years of mining.".
The ignorance of this statement speaks for itself.

Nice summary Food4thought.

Sad, but not surprised, thats why I pulled out my small investment after reading the epa first come back and what there criteria was, basically they where never going to have enough proof, no matter what, it was ridiculous the amount of info they wanted.
The reality is its going to release a small plume of mud in the middle of nowhere, thats basically it, one fishing boat would do more damage to the bottom in one day then this was going to do in years of mining. Speaking as both a dredger and x commercial fisherman.
The epa is a joke that will say no to anything with mining in it, even when its good for the environment, arent some of them green party members, that leaked this info months ago anyway, bias anyone?
The only good thing that may come out of this is will be if the epa is disbanded.

[goldfish]

Are you serious? Luckily it people who actually understand the likely impact that make these decisions.
Middle of no-where huh. What is that supposed to mean. Easy one liner that has no actual bearing.
Listen to your self. " one fishing boat would do more damage to the bottom in one day then this was going to do in years of mining.".
The ignorance of this statement speaks for itself.

Nice summary Food4thought.

Rubbish, have you seen the damage a bottom trawler does compared to a dredge, maybe a slight exaggeration when I said years, but the point remains.

Id say that hundred of kms off the coast is middle of nowhere, if not where is.

They where never going to approve this, no matter how little impact it had on the environment, hence I got my money out, and I was correct to.
If it was up to people like them and you we would still be living in caves.

[Food4Thought]

Would this also open up a precedent for other commercial dredging of the sea floor for "important materials" and also be a turn to situation for the dredge fishing industry? Whats so bad about fishing.... these guys are ripping up the ocean floor (they do rely on each other at the end of the day).

I don't eat commercial caught fish, as I worked for a company for 3 years and am not in favour of their practice. I am a keen water hobby activity part taker, and have seen the damage that dredging, over fishing and a lack of compassion for the *free* environment that this type of industry relies on. Sure it is a small portion on the surface area of the sea floor... but the imbalance dredging creates is measurable... you can't contain the plumes of run off, and prevent the deposition of this material at a very fast rate in other areas (unnatural underwater pollution), due to currents. The bottom of the sea floor is rather hard to disturb at depths naturally. I think the impact is much greater than what CRP would like to admit.

[BFG]

Sad day, but all too predictable based on EPA actions and CCs track record.

Wonder if Sorehead and Joyce are lining up for shares now that it's more than likely to end up being a shell?

Taking it to HC has a 99% chance of failure.

Never seen a stock plummet so badly in one day. Commiserations to MAC & Croesus.

YAH, you are insane.

That is all! :)

[winner69]

We drank our champagne and it was quite nice too.

Wasn't really a celebration of 'winning', more of relief that a sensible decision was reached.

Glad the effort in making a submission helped the cause.

[Joshuatree]

Hats off to you being proactive winner.:t_up:

[tim23]

I have never held CRP but obviously glad I don't but gee some of you are really wise after the event!

[Joshuatree]

who in particular tim. Have you been following the threads?

[percy]

I think you would be best to keep it that way.
Castle was a one time Brierley Investments employee.He went on to float his own investment company.Major investment was Regina Confectionary,Oamaru.
His investment record was/is very poor.
I would not invest in any company Castle was/is connected with.

Posted 08-09-2011.
Sorry to any one who did not read it.

[Joshuatree]

Wont dredge up all the stuff i posted and eventually got modded for but hey i bet it will happen again; rinse and repeat with some fresh new meat(investors).

[percy]

Wont dredge up all the stuff i posted and eventually got modded for but hey i bet it will happen again; rinse and repeat with some fresh new meat(investors).

Born again punters!!!
Or more correctly, freshly born punters???

[janner]

Born again punters!!!
Or more correctly, freshly born punters???


Old age and cunning aye ???

Always wins out..

[winner69]

Percy ....Regina still making lollies in Oamaru

Their history says - Fast forward through some boring bits … takeovers, 1987 sharemarket crash, sold, closed … until June 2001, when a new company was formed

Yes chris was no good with lollies

Good memories ....yum

[Crystal Ball]

I have never held CRP but obviously glad I don't but gee some of you are really wise after the event!
After reading about CRP on sharechat today, I was intrigued and I ended up reading the entire thread from the beginning which I found quite fascinating but to be honest, it doesn't feel like anyone were really wise after the event- those that had misgivings vocalised from the word go and throughout the thread.....
I am sorry for those that have seen their shares plummet ,but to be honest, right to the end, they were confident and quite comfortable in the decision to hold shares.those that weren t, sold out and told the thread why. Unfortunately, for those that were loyal, it didn t end up the way they wanted, but they knew the risks and were comfortable that it was high risk, but possibly high gain.
I have learnt a lot from this as I am sure many others have to. First and foremost, never to invest in anything that Chris Castle is involved in....

[Antipodean]

This was always a very high risk venture. Obviously I am very disappointed as I was holding - but always knew this outcome was a possibility. I only kept as a small portion of my overall portfolio for this very reason.

The holding is basically worthless now, so see little point in selling. So I will hang around and see if CRP decides to respond in the next 15 days (doubt they are allowed to extend their deadline unlike the EPA hmm?)

[winner69]

Chris not giving up
http://www.radionz.co.nz/audio/player/20166909

Good luck to him I reckon but give him credit for persevering even though going to be wasted effort.

Current shareprice an opportunity he says ...... 1.6 cents to the touted $1.20 is the opportunity, huge

[croesus]

Wont dredge up all the stuff i posted and eventually got modded for but hey i bet it will happen again; rinse and repeat with some fresh new meat(investors).

another cheap shot, from the do nothing brigade.... ( do you not wonder why you got modded last time ? )

less then 1 % of the Chatham Rise, what about the low run off, low carbon footprint, low cadmium, jobs for NZ ers,

Very disappointing... and the trawlers have almost free reign all over our seabed, ?

Like Chris said, this country is closed for over seas investment

[elZorro]

Chris not giving up
http://www.radionz.co.nz/audio/player/20166909

Good luck to him I reckon but give him credit for persevering even though going to be wasted effort.

Current shareprice an opportunity he says ...... 1.6 cents to the touted $1.20 is the opportunity, huge

Which might have interested me once, but I got a bit burnt with Glass Earth Gold. Chris Castles still has Aorere Resources, an income of $400,000 p.a, and a new director on the board, Simon Henderson.

http://aorereresources.co.nz/governance/

[percy]

Old age and cunning aye ???

Always wins out..

More like I have gone through the investment cycle;
young punter,
silly punter.
dilly punter.
very poor punter,
careful punter,
Percy a lot wiser punter.Still learning,but learnt a lot from my mistakes.
W69.I may have time to check out the Regina factory store tomorrow.Last time I checked them out they only made soft chewy lollies.

[Joshuatree]

[QUOTE=croesus;558436]another cheap shot, from the do nothing brigade.... ( do you not wonder why you got modded last time ? )

less then 1 % of the Chatham Rise, what about the low run off, low carbon footprint, low cadmium, jobs for NZ ers, ...

If i have contributed to anyone saving moneys that would be a feelgood buzz. BFG put up a brilliant piece re Management and their track records and alignments with shareholders (or not) on the VML thread. Suggest that applies here too in similar way; check track records payments etc out.Its a very good read; thanks BFG

[MAC]

I see Odyssey (OMEX) are down 26% over the last few days, given their loss of 7% in CRP and possible governmental contagion risk to their Oceanica (Don Diego) marine phosphate application.

They are pretty damn quick now to distance themselves given they were a founding shareholder in CRP !

----------------------------------------------------------

Odyssey Update: Chatham Rock Phosphate News

Late yesterday afternoon, Odyssey learned that the New Zealand Environmental Protection Authority (EPA) rejected the Chatham Rock Phosphate (CRP) application seeking permission to mine phosphate from the Chatham Rise off New Zealand. The CRP deposit and the Don Diego deposit in Mexico have entirely different characteristics including the grade and geology of the respective deposits, as well as differences in the environmental and ecological settings of the prospective mining areas and the potential environmental impacts of the two projects are dramatically different.

Odyssey remains extremely confident in the extensive ground-breaking scientific analysis, fieldwork and conclusions contained in the Don Diego environmental impact statement, but as Mark Gordon stated in the November conference call, "The potential size, quality, and strategic significance of this resource . . . has drawn the interest of strategic investors who understand the phosphate industry and the significance of this deposit to the Mexican economy." The statement from the November call remains relevant and Odyssey expects to provide an update shortly.

The environmental impact statement analysis (EIA) in Mexico is progressing and Odyssey expects that documentation addressing the current iteration of the review process overseen by the Mexican government's SEMARNAT[Secretariat of Environment and Natural Resources]to be filed in line with government requirements. The Don Diego scientific team has taken exceptional care to address the questions raised by SEMARNAT and the environmental community, and we believe that the EIA is the most comprehensive and detailed study of its kind every completed for an ocean mineral project.

As stated, differences between the proposed Chatham Rock Phosphate and Don Diego projects exist. Key differences include:

Water Depth: The Don Diego deposit exists at an approximate water depth of 80 meters while the CRP deposit lies up to 250- 450 meters water depth. The decision to refuse the application cited that this project would be the first seabed mining project undertaken at these depths anywhere in the world. The use of the proposed dredging technology in waters up to 450 meters depth is untried; therefore management techniques proposed to minimize environmental impacts for the Chatham project are untested.

In contrast, the depth of the Don Diego deposit means the phosphate can be extracted with existing, proven dredging technology. Its impacts have been widely studied and carried out for many years in coastal waters, including Mexico.

Concentration of Deposit and Footprint of Operational Impact: The CRP deposit averages less than 1 meter thickness. The Don Diego deposit averages ~3 meters thickness with many areas shown to be of greater thickness. As such, a fraction of seabed surface area needs to be disturbed to recover the phosphate in the Don Diego as compared to the CRP proposal. (The CRP application proposed to mine 30 km2 per year anticipating that the initial 15 years an area of 450 km2 would be mined. Over 35 years a total mined area of 1050km2 was envisioned. The Don Diego application calls for dredging in an area smaller than 2 km2 per year.

Benthic Population: The CRP deposit is an area considered an important nursery for the fishing industry. In denying CRP's application, the EPA stated that mining would be largely occurring in an area where the seabed is currently protected from trawling and dredging by the Mid Chatham Rise Benthic Protection area. The CRP proposal included areas of seabed that had been specifically set aside as conservation areas to protect the benthic communities from extensive damage that had occurred elsewhere in the area from the use of heavy bottom gear from trawling. The EPA also stated the project would destroy "rare and vulnerable ecosystems" including communities dominated by the protected stony corals (a species potentially unique to the Chatham Rise) while also causing "permanent and adverse effects" to the nearby marine ecosystem.

In contrast, extensive surveys and environmental tests of the Don Diego area show remarkably low biodiversity in the proposed dredging zone and are not known to be a nursery ground for commercial fish species. In addition, the ecosystem components are not unique in the region of the project as the seabed deposits at the Don Diego site do not support any species which are not represented in greater abundance in the surrounding areas of the Bay of Ulloa.

The comparatively small seabed surface area to be dredged each year combined with the rapid re-colonization and recovery of biologic communities in benthic settings similar to the Don Diego site indicate minimal or no permanent impacts will result from the project. Extensive sound propagation modeling and sediment dispersion models, demonstrate little or no anticipated impact and toxicology testing conducted with Don Diego geologic samples demonstrated no impact to the biological community of the proposed Don Diego project site as a result of project activities.

Economic Impact and Government: The New Zealand EPA concluded that the economic benefit to the nation from the proposed project would be "modest at best". The economic and strategic benefit to Mexico from the Don Diego project is significant, potentially allowing Mexico to halt foreign phosphate dependence while transforming into a phosphate-exporting nation. The resource tonnage of CRP of ~25 million ore tonnes represents a small fraction (<10%) of the total ore tonnage from Don Diego

It is interesting to note that the report issued by the New Zealand EPA stated that "given their highly mobile behavior, it was unlikely they would sustain any significant direct, physiological impacts even with frequent encounters" in reference to noise effects on ten internationally or nationally threatened marine mammals sighted in the proposed area. It was also reported that "suspended sediment plumes of concentrations predicted are unlikely to cause impacts on whales and that in any case, plumes could be easily avoided" and "it was unlikely collisions or harmful interaction with a cetacean would occur."

For more information, please visit the Don Diego project website at:
http://www.dondiego.mx (http://www.dondiego.mx/)

[Crystal Ball]

[QUOTE=croesus;558436]another cheap shot, from the do nothing brigade.... ( do you not wonder why you got modded last time ? )

less then 1 % of the Chatham Rise, what about the low run off, low carbon footprint, low cadmium, jobs for NZ ers, ...

If i have contributed to anyone saving moneys that would be a feelgood buzz. BFG put up a brilliant piece re Management and their track records and alignments with shareholders (or not) on the VML thread. Suggest that applies here too in similar way; check track records payments etc out.Its a very good read; thanks BFG
Well I for one, am learning a lot from trawling through the various threads , even on companies that I am not going to invest in. Learning lots thanks to all! Again it all comes down to individual thresholds of risk and there is no right or wrong, as always , one has to always DYOR ...

[Balance]

another cheap shot, from the do nothing brigade.... ( do you not wonder why you got modded last time ? )

less then 1 % of the Chatham Rise, what about the low run off, low carbon footprint, low cadmium, jobs for NZ ers,

Very disappointing... and the trawlers have almost free reign all over our seabed, ?

Like Chris said, this country is closed for over seas investment

Yes, and Chris would also say that he has made billions of dollars of gains for his legion of investors.

[youngatheart]

Chris certainly isn`t giving up...http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/332918/vow-pursue-phosphate-bid

''We're not going to die and go away. We'll cut our cloth to suit,'' Mr Castle said.

[Kees]

Chris certainly isn`t giving up...http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/332918/vow-pursue-phosphate-bid

''We're not going to die and go away. We'll cut our cloth to suit,'' Mr Castle said.

He certainly is a trier ;

[Balance]

He certainly is a trier ;

Consultancy fees, directors' fees, management fees totaling $727,000 in 2013.

Office and travel expenses a further $283,000.

Consultancy fees to Chris Castle via AOR $669,000 in 2012 and 2013.

He tries very hard indeed!

[Kees]

Consultancy fees, directors' fees, management fees totaling $727,000 in 2013.

Office and travel expenses a further $283,000.

Consultancy fees to Chris Castle via AOR $669,000 in 2012 and 2013.

He tries very hard indeed!

Makes you wonder why people would invest with him, good job if you can get it by the look of it. ( no offence to backers)

[whatsup]

Consultancy fees, directors' fees, management fees totaling $727,000 in 2013.

Office and travel expenses a further $283,000.

Consultancy fees to Chris Castle via AOR $669,000 in 2012 and 2013.

He tries very hard indeed!

I guess that he will be very keep to "invest" more $ into this dead duck via a 10 for 1 nonrenounceable rights issue at .01

[elZorro]

A hard-hitting article from Rod Oram in the SST today about the CRP decision. Ranging from the estimated phosphate prices being sometimes below any breakeven point, to the impact on fishing in the area, etc. Bottom trawling is banned in the area, so perhaps the exploration permit(s) should never have been granted.

Only $5mill of NZ govt funding is available for marine science each year. I think CRP spent $33mill on this project so far?

Rod concludes that


"If the Government had a strategic bone in its body, it would start New Zealand on the long, hard journey to becoming a world leader in marine sciences and management, thereby generating substantial, sustainable wealth."

[winner69]

In the paper yesterday the Milford guy said CRP will probably reinvent themselves as world class oil and gas exploration company.

[percy]

In the paper yesterday the Milford guy said CRP will probably reinvent themselves as world class oil and gas exploration company.

Good to know some one at Milford has retained their sense of humour!!! lol.

[elZorro]

In the paper yesterday the Milford guy said CRP will probably reinvent themselves as a world class oil and gas exploration company.

No doubt. I think that what Rod Oram might have just pulled up short on saying, is that perhaps the Government is using wealthy individuals and shareholders of listed companies to carry out risky and non-paying core resources research on their behalf. I had a bad experience with Glass Earth Gold, watched this CRP effort mostly from the sidelines. Over time, the research work that was paid for by these shareholders, virtually all of whom would have lost money, will be handed over in report form to the government's NZPAM. Sure, it will be available to anyone who expresses an interest in the permit areas later, but the environmental impact work will give government info in other areas not related directly to an enterprise. Glass Earth aeromagnetic surveys provided data on water resources in the SI, some of which local bodies paid for. I think they also helped discover a massive underground area of molten lava near Wairakei.

[Moosie]

In the paper yesterday the Milford guy said CRP will probably reinvent themselves as world class oil and gas exploration company.

Knowing NZO they would buy them too, since they seem to be in acquisition mode.

God, what a match made in heaven those two would be eh?!?!

[skid]

Jaizezzz moosie --youve got more personalities than Sybil----- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shirley_Ardell_Mason ----

Welcome back:D

[Moosie]

Jaizezzz moosie --youve got more personalities than Sybil----- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shirley_Ardell_Mason ----

Welcome back:D

Sorry, BFG got banned for a week and everyone knows me as Moosie anyways so thought I'd go "full buck" again.

Disc - I have only ever been moosie_900, BFG and now Moosie. No clowns were harmed in the making of this user name :D

[BIRMANBOY]

The real reason they banned you was the post counter couldn't handle quantity of posts over the six figures:p
Sorry, BFG got banned for a week and everyone knows me as Moosie anyways so thought I'd go "full buck" again.

Disc - I have only ever been moosie_900, BFG and now Moosie. No clowns were harmed in the making of this user name :D

[tim23]

It may be already stated but crp is prc backwards ouch!

[winner69]

It may be already stated but crp is prc backwards ouch!

Ha ha .... Well spotted