FPH - Fisher Paykel Healthcare.

[alokdhir]

Did FPH weightage increase in any Index on 17th sept ? Why it traded such large volumes @ both NZX and ASX ...almost 3 times normal vols ??

[alokdhir]

https://www.covid19treatmentguidelines.nih.gov/management/critical-care/oxygenation-and-ventilation/

NIH guidelines regarding HFNC vs CPAP or PPV is totally opposite to new recommendations of NICE ...both cite random studies but NIH studies are peer reviewed also and more in numbers and sample sizes .

Question arises how can two premier medical institutes get totally opposite results from random studies .

NIH states CPAP or NIPPV is most inferior of the 3 options while NICE says its the most superior ...


" High-Flow Nasal Cannula and Noninvasive Positive Pressure VentilationHFNC is preferred over NIPPV in patients with acute hypoxemic respiratory failure based on data from an unblinded clinical trial in patients without COVID-19 who had acute hypoxemic respiratory failure. Study participants were randomized to HFNC, conventional oxygen therapy, or NIPPV. The patients in the HFNC group had more ventilator-free days (24 days) than those in the conventional oxygen therapy group (22 days) or NIPPV group (19 days) (P = 0.02), and 90-day mortality was lower in the HFNC group than in either the conventional oxygen therapy group (HR 2.01; 95% CI, 1.01–3.99) or the NIPPV group (HR 2.50; 95% CI, 1.31–4.78).3 In the subgroup of more severely hypoxemic patients (PaO2/FiO2 mm Hg ≤200), the intubation rate was lower for HFNC than for conventional oxygen therapy or NIPPV (HR 2.07 and 2.57, respectively).
The trial’s findings were corroborated by a meta-analysis of eight trials with 1,084 patients conducted to assess the effectiveness of oxygenation strategies prior to intubation. Compared to NIPPV, HFNC reduced the rate of intubation (OR 0.48; 95% CI, 0.31–0.73) and ICU mortality (OR 0.36; 95% CI, 0.20–0.63).4
NIPPV may generate aerosol spread of SARS-CoV-2 and thus increase nosocomial transmission of the infection.5,6 It remains unclear whether HFNC results in a lower risk of nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 transmission than NIPPV. "

[winner69]

Marketwatch today

Shares in Pacific Edge surged 6.1% after it raised $80 million in an oversubscribed placement but the NZX's benchmark equity index fell as its biggest stock, Fisher & Paykel Healthcare, took a 3.1% tumble.


First reaction was it seemed rather strange but I suppose that's the way the market behaves these days

[alokdhir]

FPH didn't have good August sales ...lowest of FY 22 so far ....only $ 120 Mil estimated from exports data out yesterday .

5 months so far $ 700 Mil ...little above analysts expectations but below mine ...:t_down:

PS : If Sept is also similar then 6 months results can be around $ 825-50 Mil range

[macduffy]

With a bit of luck sharetraders will continue to sell down FPH on this news. Share investors, on the other hand , will see it as an opportunity to buy a few more!

:cool:

[winner69]

FPH most sold (Value sells less value buys) by Direct Broking / Jarden clients last week

[couta1]

FPH most sold (Value sells less value buys) by Direct Broking / Jarden clients last week This client of theirs didn't sell any, as good a money parking spot as any in these times.

[alokdhir]

With a bit of luck sharetraders will continue to sell down FPH on this news. Share investors, on the other hand , will see it as an opportunity to buy a few more!

:cool:

How right u r !!! Last time SP went below 400 SMA / EMA for a meaningful period was Dec 2018 and it was around $ 12 that time ...We all know what it did in next 2 years ...

Hopefully and likely history will repeat itself as FPH still best quality company on NZX ...so just on that count ...It can be $ 60 in next 2 years ...:t_up:

[BlackPeter]

How right u r !!! Last time SP went below 400 SMA / EMA for a meaningful period was Dec 2018 and it was around $ 12 that time ...We all know what it did in next 2 years ...

Hopefully and likely history will repeat itself as FPH still best quality company on NZX ...so just on that count ...It can be $ 60 in next 2 years ...:t_up:

400 EMA is $31.36 ... still nearly a dollar to go :):

Suspect as well that buyers need to have a bit of patience ... this years financials probably not that flash (compared to the previous).

Agree however - in the long run it likely will be a satisfactory investment.

[Sideshow Bob]

Mitsubishi bought up about 6.1m shares in the last 4 months.

355654.pdf (nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com) (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/FPH/379878/355654.pdf)

[BlackPeter]

It is a good old tradition for me to buy FPH below the EMA400 - so I couldn't resist today :);

Nibbled some more around $30.

I guess - sure, they well might keep dropping to the lower boundary of their current trading band, but then, they might not ... and pretty sure whatever it is that I will be pleased in a decade from now with the purchase price.

[clearasmud]

It is a good old tradition for me to buy FPH below the EMA400 - so I couldn't resist today :);

Nibbled some more around $30.

I guess - sure, they well might keep dropping to the lower boundary of their current trading band, but then, they might not ... and pretty sure whatever it is that I will be pleased in a decade from now with the purchase price.

Yes but who wants to wait 10 years.

[couta1]

Yes but who wants to wait 10 years. Well yes there is that, my current holding Is down around 10% which some would consider stoploss material and I just sold 2 power companies out for a loss less than that % so need to think about this one also.

[Rawz]

This thread always gets a bit panickie when the price drops below $30.. the SP always bounces back to the mid $30s.

I will again be accumulating. Will try 3 buy orders;

$29.00
$28.50
$28.00

[couta1]

This thread always gets a bit panickie when the price drops below $30.. the SP always bounces back to the mid $30s.

I will again be accumulating. Will try 3 buy orders;

$29.00
$28.50
$28.00 Went quite heavy on this so can't buy any more currently but because OCA is down so low I will consider selling some for a loss to buy more of them.

[iceman]

Yes but who wants to wait 10 years.

Many of us are happy to keep this in our long term portfolio. I'm adding a few at the current SP level. A great long term hold in my view

[winner69]

It is a good old tradition for me to buy FPH below the EMA400 - so I couldn't resist today :);

Nibbled some more around $30.

I guess - sure, they well might keep dropping to the lower boundary of their current trading band, but then, they might not ...and pretty sure whatever it is that I will be pleased in a decade from now with the purchase price.

Tut tut Peter ….predicting the future are we?

Very difficult to do they say …..or is this prediction just gut feel with a bit of hope?

[alokdhir]

This thread always gets a bit panickie when the price drops below $30.. the SP always bounces back to the mid $30s.

I will again be accumulating. Will try 3 buy orders;

$29.00
$28.50
$28.00

Maybe there will be no need to trouble your bank balance ...may not go there .

U need to understand TA aspect also ...when last it went to 27 at that time 400 SMA was 28 ...now 400 SMA is 32.26 ...400 EMA is 30.27 ...as per Yahoo charts ...means lots of water flown under the bridge ...todays 29.80 is like that days 26 .... BP was not buying then ...he is now ...Major change :D

[BlackPeter]

Tut tut Peter ….predicting the future are we?

Very difficult to do they say …..or is this prediction just gut feel with a bit of hope?

This coming from the man who loves to dangle around with future stock prices like carrots ... like $50 (or whatever) by Christmas?

Anyway - I am not predicting ... just disclosing my working assumptions :p):

And lets face it - how would anybody be able to successfully invest if they don't make assumptions related to the overall return of the investment?

While nobody can predict the future with certainty and particularly not future stock prices ... the people who get it more often right than wrong are successful investors and the others not so successful investors.

So far my record is good enough to feed me and my family - which is good enough for me :):

[Rawz]

Maybe there will be no need to trouble your bank balance ...may not go there .

U need to understand TA aspect also ...when last it went to 27 at that time 400 SMA was 28 ...now 400 SMA is 32.26 ...400 EMA is 30.27 ...as per Yahoo charts ...means lots of water flown under the bridge ...todays 29.80 is like that days 26 .... BP was not buying then ...he is now ...Major change :D

But arnt we just in a sideways trading pattern between $27-$36 ish.

Hmmm now I'm worried ill missed out

[alokdhir]

But arnt we just in a sideways trading pattern between $27-$36 ish.

Hmmm now I'm worried ill missed out

With a rising 400 SMA ....Did u see the rising trend line in BP post few weeks back ...its rising ...means it goes up little bit ...same as 400 SMA ...its at 32.25 13079

[peat]

oversold with clear divergence on the RSI.


I'm seeing a bullish descending wedge. ready for spike down and reversal.13082


discl. trading this stock , currently long.

[alokdhir]

How a results date announcement become price sensitive info ...NZX fault or FPH ??

And puts FPH in auto HALT for 15 mins

[winner69]

Hey alokdhir - Forbar gurus say they’ve built a model based on export data to forecast sales. Did you help them …or maybe they just stole your idea (IP)

They say - The newly built ‘revenue proxy’ model implies the healthcare exporter will report a revenue decline of approximately 9% to $830m, which is modestly below consensus.

Their model as good as yours?

[kiora]

That would be 15% YOY growth without Covid W69 so could easily be about right

[alokdhir]

Hey alokdhir - Forbar gurus say they’ve built a model based on export data to forecast sales. Did you help them …or maybe they just stole your idea (IP)

They say - The newly built ‘revenue proxy’ model implies the healthcare exporter will report a revenue decline of approximately 9% to $830m, which is modestly below consensus.

Their model as good as yours?

If u read my last post after August exports data release date ....I have mentioned almost exactly the same figure as most likely 6 months revenue ...Looks like they have stolen my IP ...they will be hearing from me ...or they just read it here ...lol

Final figure will be updated after Sept exports data released . But it will remain in that vicinity only $ 825-850Mil

" FPH didn't have good August sales ...lowest of FY 22 so far ....only $ 120 Mil estimated from exports data out yesterday .

5 months so far $ 700 Mil ...little above analysts expectations but below mine ...https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/smilies/thumbdown.gif

PS : If Sept is also similar then 6 months results can be around $ 825-50 Mil range "

Post Number 2004

[Rawz]

Well done Alokdhir- FPH master

[alokdhir]

Well done Alokdhir- FPH master

Thanks buddy :)

[kiora]

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/FISHER-PAYKEL-HEALTHCAR-6492630/financials/
Seems about right

[couta1]

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/FISHER-PAYKEL-HEALTHCAR-6492630/financials/
Seems about right Their avg target price of $30 doesn't seem about right though. Lol

[alokdhir]

Their avg target price of $30 doesn't seem about right though. Lol

Most likely full year FY22 eps will be around 75 cents ...so average p/e of 45 = $ 33.50 Current fair value ...It will get rerated for next years eps of 90 cents when market is sure of it ...most likely after Nov results ...so Dec to March 22 will be most productive period for SP if all goes well .

[winner69]

Most likely full year FY22 eps will be around 75 cents ...so average p/e of 45 = $ 33.50 Current fair value ...It will get rerated for next years eps of 90 cents when market is sure of it ...most likely after Nov results ...so Dec to March 22 will be most productive period for SP if all goes well .

Guru analysts on marketscreener have F22 eps as 62 cents and F23 as 65 cents

So if share price remains in low 30’s we’ll see elevated PEs for a while

[BlackPeter]

Guru analysts on marketscreener have F22 eps as 62 cents and F23 as 65 cents

So if share price remains in low 30’s we’ll see elevated PEs for a while

Forward PE for FPH is in the early forties. Not cheap (even considering the forward earnings CAGR of 13), but not too dear either.

This is just the premium the market seems to be happy to pay for quality companies.

Just compare that with XRO (forward PE of 330 - with an "earnings CAGR" not worthwhile talking about (year to year earnings still jittering around the zero);

Or compare that with AIA ... similar forward PE like FPH (if the analysts are right, which they often are not) and a negative forward earnings CAGR.

But sure - market well might decide at some stage to reduce its ideas of what an appropriate P/E is ... and I suppose if interest rates keep rising, this might be one of the triggers.

[alokdhir]

Guru analysts on marketscreener have F22 eps as 62 cents and F23 as 65 cents

So if share price remains in low 30’s we’ll see elevated PEs for a while

How u said both things in same breath ...U said $ 830 mil revenue which translates to 75 cents annualised eps below consensus and then U said FY22 consensus is 62 cents !!

Historically FPH has traded on p/e of 35 to 60 range ..say mean being 47.5 ...after mid year gone ie after Nov results ...market starts discounting it for next years expected eps so p/e starts expanding towards higher range .

I expect same to happen after its consolidation is over . From Dec onwards it may start looking to FY23 eps of 85-90 cents depending on analysts views ...Mine medium term views are 75cents this year , 85-90 cents eps for FY23 ...so in calendar 22 sometime it should trade to $ 45 ...

[kiwiyankee]

Article in CNBC about Philips. I guess FPH will be facing same issues (supply chain issue, shortage of electronic components etc etc):

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/18/philips-lowers-outlook-as-recall-parts-shortages-bite.html

[BlackPeter]

Article in CNBC about Philips. I guess FPH will be facing same issues (supply chain issue, shortage of electronic components etc etc):

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/18/philips-lowers-outlook-as-recall-parts-shortages-bite.html

Same with car manufacturers around the world. Not sure though, I am convinced it will hit their bottom line. If you produce something which is in demand and you can't produce enough of it due to supply shortages and your competitors are exactly in the same situation causing a shortage of product in the market - what exactly is happening to the margins?

Right :t_up:.

[kiora]

"“At this stage, we do not anticipate any significant impact on supply to our existing customers. We will continue to assess this on an ongoing basis, particularly if the outbreak escalates or continues for a prolonged period,” said Mr Gradon.

“During this challenging time for China, we appreciate the efforts of our own team and our suppliers. Our people have been working long hours to ship products quickly, assemble them, and meet the need for training, particularly in Wuhan. Many of our suppliers have expedited the supply of raw materials to us as a manufacturer of essential medical devices, and we are deeply grateful for that,” he said."
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/348775
https://www.fphcare.com/nz/our-company/sustainability/supply-chain/

[alokdhir]

FPH has shown in 2020 that they manage challenges much better then many other companies ...so I see this as another opportunity to SHINE ...:t_up:

[peat]

oversold with clear divergence on the RSI.


I'm seeing a bullish descending wedge. ready for spike down and reversal.13082


discl. trading this stock , currently long.

the reaction happening now!

[LEMON]

the reaction happening now!

The last time this happened I got in at $27.35 and again this time at $29.75

[alokdhir]

Monthly exports data is out .

FPH did better in Sept ...only down -4.5 % on PCP .

Estimated monthly revenue is $ 155 Mil

My estimated 6 months revenue is $ 850-55 Mil ....so its doing better then Guru analysts expectations

[Panda-NZ-]

I bought some on the ASX about a month ago.

The benefit is the currency moves back down = some extra cash.

[couta1]

Not feeling the love today but its a low volume selldown like a few other NZX stocks, bit of rats and mice fear around?

[Biscuit]

.....bit of rats and mice fear around?


yeah, well, that's how it always starts eh...

[Old mate]

Fph is up and down like whores draws lately:)

[couta1]

Fph is up and down like whores draws lately:) Hugely volatile stock for sure.

[Biscuit]

Fph is up and down like whores draws lately:)

lined up to be well down on close, I've got my buy order in.

[MarineSalvage]

getting a bit sick of the ups and downs... might sell them all

[LoungeLizzard]

Fph is up and down like whores draws lately:)

I've said it before, FPH acts like a trading stock, rather than the steady-as-she-goes, growth stock which in theory is what it's supposed to be. Hard to know where it is going to be from one month to the next. And even during a pandemic, when it should be consistently outperforming, the SP has been even more volatile than usual. Long term it might be good value, but it's a bumpier ride than I expected when I bought in.

[dobby41]

getting a bit sick of the ups and downs... might sell them all

If you aren't buying or selling what does it matter?

[couta1]

I've said it before, FPH acts like a trading stock, rather than the steady-as-she-goes, growth stock which in theory is what it's supposed to be. Hard to know where it is going to be from one month to the next. And even during a pandemic, when it should be consistently outperforming, the SP has been even more volatile than usual. Long term it might be good value, but it's a bumpier ride than I expected when I bought in. Its been acting like ATM of late, big players push it where they want.

[BlackPeter]

I've said it before, FPH acts like a trading stock, rather than the steady-as-she-goes, growth stock which in theory is what it's supposed to be. Hard to know where it is going to be from one month to the next. And even during a pandemic, when it should be consistently outperforming, the SP has been even more volatile than usual. Long term it might be good value, but it's a bumpier ride than I expected when I bought in.

I guess it depends what you are looking at.

For any long-term investor FPH is a dream, and I am pretty sure it will stay that way:

13211

In only nine years from less than $2 per share to above $30 per share with actually little volatility is not too bad, isn't it? This is something like 25% gain per year not even considering the dividend.

Looking at the trend - it is easy to see that Covid gave the SP in early 2020 a boost - and obviously - what needs to go up needs to come down (back to the main trendline), but I am sure they will do fine if you plan for the next decade.

If anybody however plans to cash out next month, than shares might not be the right investment anyway - in that case I would recommend to consider a cash account at the friendly bank next door :p: Less volatility, but obviously as well - significantly less long term gains.

[Panda-NZ-]

If you guys don't mind the currency exposure IDNA (ishares etf) has companies at the leading edge of healthcare, rather than relying on legacy revenue only.

PE ratio is acceptable too at 30.

[Old mate]

What chart software are you using there BP please?

[winner69]

getting a bit sick of the ups and downs... might sell them all

If you only looked at the FPH share price once a year there about a 95% chance you’d be a happy punter

Check the price every hour (say 1750 times a year) you will probably have about 920 happy moments …but 830 times you will rather sad / pissed off / wondering what’s going

Even once a day will give you many sad days

Lesson —- don’t look at the FPH share price too often if you are convinced it’s a great bet

[Biscuit]

I guess it depends what you are looking at.

For any long-term investor FPH is a dream, and I am pretty sure it will stay that way:.......

I agree. I also think, same as with MFT, people are possibly under estimating how much these companies are positioned to use covid to help transform their business. Its true that both have seen a short-term boost to their profitability but I think it's a mistake to think things will just drop back to the long-term trendline. Both companies are using this situation to their long-term advantage.

[BlackPeter]

What chart software are you using there BP please?

... Just boring old and free Yahoo Finance. Pretty good for a first look ...

[Panda-NZ-]

... Just boring old and free Yahoo Finance. Pretty good for a first look ...

That site needs an ad-blocker, otherwise good though.

[Mista_Trix]

The Trading View website and app are both great and free. Displays really well on a mobile as well.

[Panda-NZ-]

Up 5% after being down that much two days ago. Good stock for traders lol

[Charlie]

So we are expecting some announcement on 25 November. Interesting to see main institutional holders are Vanguard and Black rock. Also biggest institutional holders for Pfizer. What a coincidence. These two companies basically own the planet. I think it is fair to say everyone is expecting a good result especially as they supply in-hospital respiratory equipment mainly, and that is a no brainer. Great ROE YOY, and great increases in EPS . Very little increase in shares over the years so no dilution. Very nice stock

[alokdhir]

Want to know people's view about expected market reaction to upcoming FPH results ....

I am expecting revenue around $ 850-860 Mil and NP $ 215-220 Mil .

What people think will be reaction of the market to such a result ? Thoughts please

[winner69]

Want to know people's view about expected market reaction to upcoming FPH results ....

I am expecting revenue around $ 850-860 Mil and NP $ 215-220 Mil .

What people think will be reaction of the market to such a result ? Thoughts please

This time last year they announced H1 NPAT of $225m - share price was about $34.00 and didn't do too much post announcement

So this year your $220m is a bit less and share price $31.60 ...so may go up a bit post announcement

Key will be if they come out with full year guidance - bullish and share price will take off if they continue with their reluctance to give guidance things probably a bit subdued (or bad if punters get a bit peeved)

[alokdhir]

This time last year they announced H1 NPAT of $225m - share price was about $34.00 and didn't do too much post announcement

So this year your $220m is a bit less and share price $31.60 ...so may go up a bit post announcement

Key will be if they come out with full year guidance - bullish and share price will take off if they continue with their reluctance to give guidance things probably a bit subdued (or bad if punters get a bit peeved)

Last year mid Nov vaccine news came out which tanked FPH big time from $ 37 to $ 31.50 ...but after results it again saw $ 35.90 for a while I reckon ...

[kiwiyankee]

They are also launching a new product, visairo (see investor news 17/11/2021).

Revenue boost for the second half?

[alokdhir]

" Jarden’s director of equity research, Adrian Allbon said the key focus of the result will be how covid-related sales are normalising having been elevated since March last year.
Allbon expects revenue to fall 7% to $849m and net profit to drop 17% to $188m, but the board to announce a dividend payout of 21 cents per share – up 24%. "

" As per NZ Herald market expecting 866 Mil Revenue and 200 Mil NP "

Key being both expectations are over analysts forecasts after last full year results ....so can expect a better reaction this time ...maybe $ 34 SP !!!

[Shareguy]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/383536

Looks like a better result than expected.

[Biscuit]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/383536

Looks like a better result than expected.

Significantly better, should be a good day on the market today.

[alokdhir]

Significantly better, should be a good day on the market today.

Much better then market consensus and big names like Jarden and Forbars...

10% + NP better ...SP should move big ....Margins actually improved instead of going down as per Jarden .

:t_up:

[couta1]

Much better then market consensus and big names like Jarden and Forbars...

10% + NP better ...SP should move big ....Margins actually improved instead of going down as per Jarden .

:t_up: Bit of a mixed bag though with the cautious outlook, market reaction will be interesting.

[alokdhir]

Bit of a mixed bag though with the cautious outlook, market reaction will be interesting.

Which part is mixed for U ?? Revenue beaten best estimates of maximum 866 Mil ...NP beaten best estimates of 200 Mil by more then 10 % ...

Huge expansions plans showing huge growth ahead ... Margins improved while analysts were predicting huge 1.5 % reduction especially at Jarden

I cant see anything mixed here buddy ...only goodies

[BlackPeter]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/383536

Looks like a better result than expected.

Much better than any analyst predicted - they nearly matched (both revenue as well as NPAT) the record result they had last year. Outstanding company ... always good to buy the shares below MA400 ;):

[Biscuit]

Bit of a mixed bag though with the cautious outlook, market reaction will be interesting.

I'd say they've successfully changed up a gear and they are now into a long straight run with a tail wind.

[winner69]

Any fears of things going backwards should be gone

Nothing to stop share price moving up a lot

Always good to prove guru analysts wrong …..I’ll forgive alokdhir

[alokdhir]

Much better than any analyst predicted - they nearly matched (both revenue as well as NPAT) the record result they had last year. Outstanding company ... always good to buy the shares below MA400 ;):

And analysts were talking of 30% reductions after last full year results ...If this keeps on like this ...very good chance they will match last years full year results . In constant currency may exceed possible ...wow ...seems so better then what was being predicted by all smart analysts in May 2021 ...

Huge expansion and why needed written very clearly ...should be red flags to bulls ...Breakout of rectangle possible ...medium term $ 45 target very much on the cards

[alokdhir]

Any fears of things going backwards should be gone

Nothing to stop share price moving up a lot

Always good to prove guru analysts wrong …..I’ll forgive alokdhir


U r welcome buddy ...though I got NP almost right but my revenue model needs tweaking ...it varies with supplies of consumables vs machines ...so little bit of suspense is always left to enjoy

[couta1]

Which part is mixed for U ?? Revenue beaten best estimates of maximum 866 Mil ...NP beaten best estimates of 200 Mil by more then 10 % ...

Huge expansions plans showing huge growth ahead ... Margins improved while analysts were predicting huge 1.5 % reduction especially at Jarden

I cant see anything mixed here buddy ...only goodies No earnings guidance. Hospital hardware revenue not expected to continue at an elevated level for rest of year. Consumer revenue to be lower in 2nd half etc. I liked the top end figures a lot but the market can be a strange beast when it comes to the commentary, hope I'm just being picky. Lol

[alokdhir]

No earnings guidance. Hospital hardware revenue not expected to continue at an elevated level for rest of year. Consumer revenue to be lower in 2nd half etc. I liked the top end figures a lot but the market can be a strange beast when it comes to the commentary, hope I'm just being picky. Lol

No earning guidance is just continuation of old policy as no one knows who will not like to be vaccinated ...pun intended buddy so dont get mad ...lol .
Hardware revenue all know cant keep growing like last year at 85% ...now even 20% will be super bonus
Consumables revenue cant match Covid mayhem revenue of last winters ...so saying so

For me
“The longer-term impact from COVID-19 for our business has been a larger installed base of our hospital hardware and increased global physician awareness and experience with our therapies and products. To ensure we are well-positioned to meet demand for the ongoing use of this installed base of hardware and accommodate our strong new product pipeline, we are continuing to invest in our infrastructure to ensure it supports our long-term growth,” said Mr Gradon. "

Most important to move it up big time and keep it up

[BlackPeter]

No earnings guidance. Hospital hardware revenue not expected to continue at an elevated level for rest of year. Consumer revenue to be lower in 2nd half etc. I liked the top end figures a lot but the market can be a strange beast when it comes to the commentary, hope I'm just being picky. Lol

Quite relaxed on that no matter which way it might go short term.

While I can't see the market dragging the stock down on this announcement ... but if it really does, what an amazing top up opportunity would that be :):

Remember ... FPH is one of these golden stocks .... always good to buy below MA400 ...

[kiora]

"“At this stage, we do not anticipate any significant impact on supply to our existing customers. We will continue to assess this on an ongoing basis, particularly if the outbreak escalates or continues for a prolonged period,” said Mr Gradon.

“During this challenging time for China, we appreciate the efforts of our own team and our suppliers. Our people have been working long hours to ship products quickly, assemble them, and meet the need for training, particularly in Wuhan. Many of our suppliers have expedited the supply of raw materials to us as a manufacturer of essential medical devices, and we are deeply grateful for that,” he said."
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/348775
https://www.fphcare.com/nz/our-company/sustainability/supply-chain/

Well done FPH

[couta1]

Market looks happy so all good.

[alokdhir]

Market looks happy so all good.

Wait for big brother to study results ....Tomorrow they will come with updated forecasts and will think about why they went so wrong ...lol

[alokdhir]

" Fisher & Paykel, as the index’s biggest stock, was responsible for the bulk of this gain as it climbed 4.9% to $33.78 with 1.1m shares traded.
Investors had been expecting the exporter to report significantly lower revenue as pandemic-related sales subsided, however, income only dropped 1% as sales held up better than expected.
Head of private wealth research at Craigs Investment Partners, Mark Lister said the result was ahead of market expectations, with some analysts being too cautious with their numbers.
“When we wake up tomorrow, analysts will have beefed up their numbers and gotten a little more positive about the stock,” he said.


More action to come tomorrow :t_up:

" Greg Main, Jarden Wealth Management adviser, said Fisher and Paykel's solid result brought a better tone to the market – the big stocks always help sentiment and the interest rate-sensitive shares even had a bounce-back.
"Fisher and Paykel was always going to be a difficult one as it had such big demand for its hospital hardware equipment when the Covid pandemic hit. But its sales are still on the upside, they have made some cost savings, and analysts may have misread the forecast a bit. And the fact they are spending money on development is a positive medium-term signal," Main said. "



"

[winner69]

Share price hit 34.55 yesterday

Will get there early on today before pushing on over 35 bucks

No worries ….jeez even couta and BlackPeter on same page

[iceman]

What a stunning result yesterday and a very exciting growth plan ahead for holders and NZ in general, with the developments here in NZ. As said several times on this thread, the exposure FPH's equipment has had all around the World due to COVID, has made it a much better known brand & equipment by both medical professionals and healthcare management. That will continue to drive growth.

[Shareguy]

A great result for a great company. Should be in everyone’s long term portfolio. Not a bargain at current price more fair value in my opinion.

[BlackPeter]

A great result for a great company. Should be in everyone’s long term portfolio. Not a bargain at current price more fair value in my opinion.

That's right. Only thing is - if you get a great company at fair value, than this is what they call in the future a bargain ;):

[winner69]

That's right. Only thing is - if you get a great company at fair value, than this is what they call in the future a bargain ;):

Probably hoping for 32.50 today .....so you can buy more of this golden stock

[BlackPeter]

Probably hoping for 32.50 today .....so you can buy more of this golden stock

Actually - I use the EMA, which would be $31.32 ... but not quite sure I am confident we get there today ;) - momentum seems to push upwards.

However - I have a little bit of cash on the sidelines, just in case :):

[Panda-NZ-]

Another positive year in 2022.
I think we will start to see people being hit a second time as natural immunity wanes for the unvaccinated.

[mondograss]

Another positive year in 2022.
I think we will start to see people being hit a second time as natural immunity wanes for the unvaccinated.

Or we get a new variant:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-delta-outbreak-doctors-warn-of-new-virus-strain-found-in-botswana-with-incredibly-high-number-of-mutations/NZKREKR5H7N7AZQKQ3KYR2D2RE/

[MarineSalvage]

Or we get a new variant:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-delta-outbreak-doctors-warn-of-new-virus-strain-found-in-botswana-with-incredibly-high-number-of-mutations/NZKREKR5H7N7AZQKQ3KYR2D2RE/

Yes - those on this thread who gloated last year that COVID was over must feel a little silly

[couta1]

Where is da love today. Lol

[Rawz]

Where is da love today. Lol

Yeah i thought the guru analysts where supposed to update their models overnight and then start a wave of buying :confused:

[couta1]

Yeah i thought the guru analysts where supposed to update their models overnight and then start a wave of buying :confused: Lol never believe the hype on here, low volume today mind you.

[peat]

Where is da love today. Lol


its just filling the gap.

[MarineSalvage]

Lol never believe the hype on here, low volume today mind you.

Americans all on holiday

mid you the clever Herald chap says that COVID is all over... I guess he didnt check with his own front page news editor

[alokdhir]

Today is only retail participants ...Institutional investors who depend on analysis and brokerage advises and views must be taking it easy ....

Anyways after that results and future expansion plans based on managements anticipated future demand I am not worried even for the short term trend ...its firmly now buy the dips

Even my optimistic 75 Cents EPS for current year has been upgraded to 85 Cents ...Market had 66 Cents penciled ...

[Old mate]

Still up and down like whores draws:t_up: Didn't think that'd happen today. Often the way.:p

[couta1]

Still up and down like whores draws:t_up: Didn't think that'd happen today. Often the way.:p Retail punters must be either bored or a bit silly, why would you sell for over a dollar less today than you could have yesterday. Lol

[Old mate]

You gotta wonder alright

[winner69]

Suppose share price up 1.2% post announcement is pretty good (Wed close to today close)

Better than going backwards

[couta1]

Wait for big brother to study results ....Tomorrow they will come with updated forecasts and will think about why they went so wrong ...lol Big brother updated forecasts a bit of a fizzer so far, Craigs drop TP 4.2% to $32.85, Jarden raises it 3% to $34 and Morningstar say fair value is $24(Umm yeah right)

[Muse]

Big brother updated forecasts a bit of a fizzer so far, Craigs drop TP 4.2% to $32.85, Jarden raises it 3% to $34 and Morningstar say fair value is $24(Umm yeah right)

MiniMe probably is Morningstar’s only analyst. I imagine him doing his signature finger to lip look everytime he finishes uploading his report.

[winner69]

FWIW Marketscreener activity last couple of days

of 8 analysts 5 unchanged and 3 upgrades to target

Average now $30.82 (was $29.99) and range $23.50 to $38.00 (was $22.65 to $37.00)

As usual for guru analysts consensus target price generally follows the share price - like consensus still less than back in Feb/April, a bit ike the share price ;)

Consensus is an interesting study - consensus is usually wrong and the more passionate people are about a subject the more likely consensus is wrong. Although consensus is a good thing it’s just that the world is far more complex and unpredictable than the consensus normally allows for, so be careful.

George Friedman good read on this, esp from an economics and geopolitical view.

[tango]

How do FPH prospects look in light of the market panic over the new omicron variant?

They may sell a few more ventilators although I gather the market is fairly saturated. Possibly full covid wards will limited access to hospitals for other sales???

I checked ResMed share price and it was down slightly but appears to have regained that in post market so it’s about the same

[LEMON]

New variant, great results, looks like Monday could be a nice day for F&P unless people start panicking then who knows

[alokdhir]

Markets including our tanked due to new variant worries but why FPH got sold ...no one knows ...is it just sell stocks or lack of thinking or depth of our markets ?

US and Europe were big downs but they had the intelligence to buy Pfizer and Moderna up 6.5% and 20% respectively as covid beneficiaries

Our brokers and advisors are more busy talking down FPH saying covid almost over so FPH revenues under threat ...seems more like conspiracy ...lol

FPH results beat market consensus big time , NZD at new lows of recent times , Bonds yields down big time , New Variant big concerns , Europe in severe covid wave , etc etc ...Still our brokers and analysts including media busy downplaying FPH stock

I am not very convinced that all being revealed at the moment about FPH is coming from real future fundamentals ...all seem have some hidden agenda too

[couta1]

New variant, great results, looks like Monday could be a nice day for F&P unless people start panicking then who knows I'd be very surprised if its a nice day for FPH on Monday, at times like this all logic flys out the window.

[Panda-NZ-]

Markets including our tanked due to new variant worries but why FPH got sold ...no one knows ...is it just sell stocks or lack of thinking or depth of our markets ?

FPH is 14% of the NZX, it could act as some protection for the wider market.

[LEMON]

This was my thinking, I would expect some sort of sell-off, but later rally around to the fact F&P is doing well and is a good contributor to current events

[winner69]

Sales growth stopped / sales expected to decline over next couple of years / trading on a PE over 37 / high PE for a no growth company /share price seems to be trending down

Just a few casual observations

Wouldn't surprise me if we got a few posts warning punters to get out ..... echos of last year when a high growth market darling started reporting lack of growth ..... and ending the warning with something like 'I could get interested in FPH at $20'

History might repeat itself ....one never knows

PS - to me (visually anyway) the share price does seem to be trending down ...but I suppose everybody sees things differently

[alokdhir]

I actually dont subscribe to W69 views ...FY 18 NP $ 190 M. , FY 19 NP $ 209 M , FY 20 NP $ 287 M , FY 21 NP $ 524 ....

After such high growth last two years ...it needs to consolidate its earnings called normalisation of earnings ...in such periods companies do not grow but consolidates

Analysts are expecting this period to last till 2023 ...but most likely it will be sooner then that ...In such period companies still command growth PE as they will eventually return to growth path after this need to consolidate above trend recent growth

If FPH was actually predicting 80% growth year after year then it would be trading at internet company PE of 150 ...but its trend growth is 20% EPS growth so it trading at 45 PE keeping in view industry average and company balance sheet is very fair

Last two years it did 37 % and 83% YOY eps growth and now it will consolidate for 2-3 years to return to its trend growth of 20% YOY ...in this time it will continue to command PE of 45 forward .

On that basis FY 22 market consensus of 63 Cents eps brought it to fair value of $ 30 ...which is now upgraded of 69 Cents ...so fair value at present should be $ 33 ...actuals maybe 90 Cents ...

As there is too much uncertainty about Covid and how long it will last ...many FPH analysts had called an end to covid last Nov on vaccine discovery ...but even after one year its not only here but still booming ...

Also people keep forgetting that FPH was not setup to fight Covid ...it has Respiratory medical devices business which was always doing well even before Covid so safe to assume even if Covid vanishes overnight ...FPH will still be doing ok .

After recent HY results we have seen how it outperformed analysts estimates during a lull time of Covid ...so I will not underestimate FPH prospects ahead ..all versions of time scales .

FPH management is known to be most conservative forecasters ...they have track record of always exceeding their guidances as market has full faith in their future predictions .

They are predicting that they will. be needing 5 factories more in next 5 years for which they are going to spend $ 700 Mil ...I am sure many in market will pay attention to such medium term bullish outlook and its not based just on Covid lasting that long

[alokdhir]

Lister puts this down to the fact there simply hasn't been as much optimism pumped into the market in the past year, but also because some of our biggest players aren't as sensitive to the economic impact of lockdowns and travel restrictions.
He points to the Spark, Chorus and electricity companies Mercury and Meridian as examples of businesses that should hold steady as the market digests the impact of the Omicron variant.
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare could, in fact, see an increase in investment in the coming days.
"Money will move to safer stocks during this period of uncertainty," he says.

[winner69]

Close at 33.33 up 33 for the day

Must be a good omen in all those 3’s

[winner69]

Share price up 3% today

Pretty good day

[Old mate]

Covid taking off around the world again.

[winner69]

hey alokdhir .... Stas NZ say respiratory equipment exports down $51m or 41% in November on pcp

Whats yours / Forbar's model say re sales now

[BlackPeter]

hey alokdhir .... Stas NZ say respiratory equipment exports down $51m or 41% in November on pcp

Whats yours / Forbar's model say re sales now

Do we know how much of this equipment is produced by FPH in NZ vs overseas? The stats might be interesting, but not relevant in measuring FPH's health ...

[winner69]

Do we know how much of this equipment is produced by FPH in NZ vs overseas? The stats might be interesting, but not relevant in measuring FPH's health ...

Alokdhir and Forbar use this data as an input into their model projecting FPH sales

Model has been pretty good indicator of where FPH are heading for a while now

[BlackPeter]

Alokdhir and Forbar use this data as an input into their model projecting FPH sales

Model has been pretty good indicator of where FPH are heading for a while now

OK - I guess that's not so good, then. On the other hand - analysts predicted a revenue downturn for FPH anyway after the stellar Corona peak - i.e. just a healthy breather?

On the bright side ... if health services buy less respiratory equipment .... this might be a really good indicator for experts expecting Covid to peter out now? On the other hand ... this all must have been before Omicron raised its ugly head ... so - not quite sure what I am supposed to hope for from here? I seem to have a conflict of interest :):

Discl: holding FPG but still hoping for Covid to go away.

[alokdhir]

hey alokdhir .... Stas NZ say respiratory equipment exports down $51m or 41% in November on pcp

Whats yours / Forbar's model say re sales now

Yes ..last Nov was a big month for them ...this Nov its almost similar to current Sept and Oct ...estimated revenues are $ 155 Mil for Nov month compared to $ 210 Mil for Nov 2020 .

Also will like to highlight here that almost 100% devices are exported from NZ while consumables are big from Mexico ...so these days it seems more consumables are being produced and sold then devices so less exports from NZ and more from Mexico thus changing the correlation a bit from month to month depending upon the mix of Devices to consumables .

In 2020 last qtr of Oct to Dec devices exports from NZ were unprecedented so NZ exports of this year is looking down a lot but I am pretty sure its just the change of the mix which is showing such big drops on Nz exports figures .

My estimate for current year revenues at present are $ 1900 Mil with $ 480 Mil as NP ...translating to 83 Cents eps ...so even if u discount it on 40 forward P/E then current fair value is about $ 33-34 ...though normally a company of FPH quality should get 45-50 forward p/e

[moose]

Also will like to highlight here that almost 100% devices are exported from NZ while consumables are big from Mexico ...so these days it seems more consumables are being produced and sold then devices so less exports from NZ and more from Mexico thus changing the correlation a bit from month to month depending upon the mix of Devices to consumables .

This is probably why the FB model was quite a bit out. Ultimately with F&P what counts going forwards is consumable sales - hardware sales are just a means to this end (you cant sell consumables unless you have the hardware in hospitals.....) - this is where COVID has been such a boost for them, the availability of F&P hardware in hospitals is now much better (although for Optiflow is still only a small % of the potential market).

The recent announcement of 4 new factories is primarily about having more capacity/redundancy/reduced transport costs for the consumables not about increasing hardware manufacturing capacity in my view.

One point that hasn't been discussed is that this increases their Moat - in their main hospital product areas (ventilation circuits/humidification systems and oxygen therapy (Optiflow)) you are locked in to a single manufacturer for consumables once you have their hardware. This is much less so in the home OSA market where a bit of mixing & matching happens.

I suspect both Alokdhir and FB will adjust heir models to take account of changing product mixes (or maybe F&P could just issue more regular sales updates???)

[winner69]

Somebody showed me this chart a few months ago …..Australia Healthcare valuations ….PB v ROE……Market gives higher multiples for higher ROE ….I was lead to believe FPH is the top right point.

fPH ROE has improved a bit since then (about 35%) …current Price Book ratio is 12 …..so maybe on this basis $33 is ‘cheapish’

Interesting eh


Alokdhir …such an analysis does not support your wish of PE of 45 to 50

[alokdhir]

Somebody showed me this chart a few months ago …..Australia Healthcare valuations ….PB v ROE……Market gives higher multiples for higher ROE ….I was lead to believe FPH is the top right point.

fPH ROE has improved a bit since then (about 35%) …current Price Book ratio is 12 …..so maybe on this basis $33 is ‘cheapish’

Interesting eh


Alokdhir …such an analysis does not support your wish of PE of 45 to 50

I was just talking about its historic valuations ...its average p/e since 2013 is about 47 ...on that basis 40-45 seems reasonable ...but just a estimate ...

Also for a company with cash positive and 0 debt balance sheet working in niche healthcare sector with good Moat in hospital equipment ...

I am pretty sure FPH will do pretty well ahead too ...

[Charlie]

I have worked at the local hospital for 22yrs, and FPH are great people to work with , Reps are very helpful and informed, .... and hardware is just like an inkjet printer, buy the printer and your locked into the cartridges for life of the printer.

Merry Chritmas to all ..
Great thougths from all .
Thanks so much for all sharing your oppinions over the years .

[winner69]

Hamilton Hinden Green have put FPH in their Brokers Tips selections for 2022 - the only broker to have included FPH in their five picks ...hmmm

Maybe they thought FPH couldn't have two negative years in a row .... a bit like hoping the dogs one year will be the star the following.

But I reckon HHG will be disappointed at years end picking a stock whose price goes backward again

[winner69]

The Economist has a table that says NZ property trades at a price to earnings (rent) ratio of 100x. That would make it an incredibly bad investment unless you're expecting a significant jump in rental income going forward.

Suppose that makes FPH on a price to earnings ratio of about 45 cheap as ... really cheap

[Muse]

The Economist has a table that says NZ property trades at a price to earnings ratio of 100x. That would make it an incredibly bad investment unless you're expecting a significant jump in rental income going forward.

Suppose that makes FPH on a price to earnings ratio of about 45 is cheap as

Yeah - the economist article was interesting…showed NZ’s property market has grown to be the most expensive / prices have grown the fastest on every metric they looked at - in the world (or at least the ones that they looked at). Bargains galore when that is your baseline.

[alokdhir]

Hamilton Hinden Green have put FPH in their Brokers Tips selections for 2022 - the only broker to have included FPH in their five picks ...hmmm

Maybe they thought FPH couldn't have two negative years in a row .... a bit like hoping the dogs one year will be the star the following.

But I reckon HHG will be disappointed at years end picking a stock whose price goes backward again

Did u note the performance of Sharetrader's Picks for last year ...- 7.8 % and that was the lowest of all 6 ...lol HHG did better + 5.9 % ....

[winner69]

Did u note the performance of Sharetrader's Picks for last year ...- 7.8 % and that was the lowest of all 6 ...lol HHG did better + 5.9 % ....

HHG were stuffed by picking A2 - down 47%

Hope FPH isn't their A2 of 2022 - you know the high flyer with slowing growth that sees its share price tumbling down from outrageously high valuations

[Rawz]

5m covid cases last week.

2022 will be a tough year with rates increases and inflation.

FPH is one of my picks for 2022 and I am very happy to have money in this proven blue chip stock.

[hamish]

Hi winner(or anyone else), would you be able to post the broker picks for CY22 if you have those to hand. Perhaps in th stockpicking competition thread. Many thanks.

[Rawz]

2021 Results

13356

[Rawz]

2022 Picks
13357

[hamish]

2022 Picks
13357

Thanks Rawz

[winner69]

I see Shareclarity has a DCF value for FPH of $23.06

Thought i'd update my DCF for FPH which I did a few years ago.

It came out at $34.23

First run run through came out $24.68 so I boosted sales growth assumptions, kept margin improvement going longer, upped the long term growth rate for terminal value calcs and turning a blind eye to the significant capex they talk about ....and lowered the discount rate ....after all that it came out at the $34.23. Cool eh

After all that I can't bring myself to increase my exposure to FPH. Suppose I'll be the loser out of that decision.

Then went back to the sign off I use ...... basically says justify to yourself high valuations you are sort of justifying to yourself that future returns will be on the low side....or maybe negative

[hamish]

I see Shareclarity has a DCF value for FPH of $23.06

Thought i'd update my DCF for FPH which I did a few years ago.

It came out at $34.23

First run run through came out $24.68 so I boosted sales growth assumptions, kept margin improvement going longer, upped the long term growth rate for terminal value calcs and turning a blind eye to the significant capex they talk about ....and lowered the discount rate ....after all that it came out at the $34.23. Cool eh

After all that I can't bring myself to increase my exposure to FPH. Suppose I'll be the loser out of that decision.

Then went back to the sign off I use ...... basically says justify to yourself high valuations you are sort of justifying to yourself that future returns will be on the low side....or maybe negative

Thanks for posting your DCF and comments Winner. I'm a long term Belieber (is that phrase still a thing!) in FPH. I read alot of Alokhdir posts and nod in consensus and enjoy your views/responses.

I am wondering (with some interest) if there is some form of 'Wedge' forming on the chart, with a breakout (up or down?) imminent (I am no chartist at all, so high speculation!) The down trend (from $37) and then the up-trend (from $27) seem to be converging around $32/33....

In english, maybe Mr Market is considering that the effects of COVID and related variants are here to stay, hence re-rating FPHs foothold and ongoing increase of their consumables.

[BlackPeter]

I see Shareclarity has a DCF value for FPH of $23.06

Thought i'd update my DCF for FPH which I did a few years ago.

It came out at $34.23

First run run through came out $24.68 so I boosted sales growth assumptions, kept margin improvement going longer, upped the long term growth rate for terminal value calcs and turning a blind eye to the significant capex they talk about ....and lowered the discount rate ....after all that it came out at the $34.23. Cool eh

After all that I can't bring myself to increase my exposure to FPH. Suppose I'll be the loser out of that decision.

Then went back to the sign off I use ...... basically says justify to yourself high valuations you are sort of justifying to yourself that future returns will be on the low side....or maybe negative

I guess this is the problem with all forward looking valuations (like DCF) ... they are based on assumptions which may or may not be right. To be honest - normally they are wrong.

If I look back at my work (where part of my job was to plan rather complex projects - involving decades of person years ;) ) ... while I completed many projects as judged by customers and company as successful, none I can remember ended in terms of requirements, timeframe and resource allocation aligned with the initial plan. How could they? Every time we started to develop something, both customers and we learned more about the requirements ... and so they changed. And this is just looking at individual projects.

FPH is running multiple complex projects ... and on top of that highly complex factories. Neither demand nor supply is predictable (just look what Covid did, and nobody knows the next move of the competition). Nobody has an answer to questions like:

How is Covid going to develop and what impact will this have on FPH's sales?
When is the next pandemic starting and which impact will this have on FPH's sales?
Does any of FPH's competitors have better or comparable equipment they are going to release next year?
What political pressure will impact on FPH's sales next year or in the years after (e.g. a Trump Mach 2 might again play with import tariffs or close the borders to products from where ever).

Which means the best one can do is to look into history and assume things might go as they did so far, or they might go either better or worse. DCF values might be interesting if they show you what the market currently thinks, or they may be useful to measure how hard a company has to work to deserve the current market valuation ... but they are clearly not a reliable measure how much a company is worth. Nobody knows.

Having said that .... FPH looked every time expensive I looked at them over the last two decades or so ... even when we could buy them for something like $1.20 in April 2000. My goodness - this is a CAGR of 16% for the last two decades ... and they paid on top of that some dividends, didn't they?

Seems to be one of these shares where the benefit of hindsight makes the difference for the purchase decision.

Discl: Holding some, but in with the benefit of hindsight not enough ... and I am pretty sure I will say the same thing next year and the year after that :p;

[winner69]

I guess this is the problem with all forward looking valuations (like DCF) ... they are based on assumptions which may or may not be right. To be honest - normally they are wrong. ................

.............and

or they may be useful to measure how hard a company has to work to deserve the current market valuation .



Same applies to PE ratios - essentially the cheats DCF

What I have done with my DCF has shown myself 'how hard the company has to work to deserve the current market valuation' .... and in saying that there's no room for too many adverse events

[winner69]

In a recent FPH presentation they had a slide that showed the 'addressable market' was $20 billion. FPH current revenues about $2 billion

My DCF (the $34.25 one) has revenues in 2030 as nearly $10 billion ..... goodness gracious me

[Ferg]

Care to share some of those variables winner? I like the train of thought of how hard they have to paddle to maintain the current valuation.

@BP: it's not a case of forecasts normally being wrong - IMO they are always incorrect, it's just a case of by how much.

[winner69]

Care to share some of those variables winner? I like the train of thought of how hard they have to paddle to maintain the current valuation.

@BP: it's not a case of forecasts normally being wrong - IMO they are always incorrect, it's just a case of by how much.

OK Ferg

I've revisited revenue assumptions and come up with some 'realistic' forecasts. These being flat in F22 and then returning to much the past trajectory. Gives about 11% pa growth over the next 10 years.

Assumed margins returning to 66% of sales and assumed realistic expense increases. Reality check is EBITDA margin increasing from 40% of sales to 44% ...hmmm. Ongoing capex as guided by FPH. Discount rate 8.5%.

For what its worth that gives a DCF value $28.34

Chart shows assumed sales trajectory over the next 10 years

I'm still can't justify increasing my exposure to FPH at current prices .... just keeping a close watch on squiggly lines on the chart to tell me when I should be selling some (or all)

All this a a load of codswallop eh .... but sort of shows how good FPH has to perform over many years to justify current share price

Dont forget what my signature means

[Ferg]

Thanks winner. I definitely have not forgotten your signature!

I interpreted your earlier post (about changing variables to justify the DCF) as being somewhat tongue in cheek given your dry wit. But it is still a serious topic nonetheless.

Some might say the current SP is "priced for growth" - and I would add the caveat of being over and above realistic/historic growth rates. That said, you will find the DCF is highly sensitive to the discount rate - but I expect you already know that.

Thanks for sharing!

[Rawz]

What does the DCF model say if the terminal value is set to 40 or 50?

Actually don’t worry

[Monarch]

OK Ferg

I've revisited revenue assumptions and come up with some 'realistic' forecasts. These being flat in F22 and then returning to much the past trajectory. Gives about 11% pa growth over the next 10 years.

Assumed margins returning to 66% of sales and assumed realistic expense increases. Reality check is EBITDA margin increasing from 40% of sales to 44% ...hmmm. Ongoing capex as guided by FPH. Discount rate 8.5%.

For what its worth that gives a DCF value $28.34

Chart shows assumed sales trajectory over the next 10 years

I'm still can't justify increasing my exposure to FPH at current prices .... just keeping a close watch on squiggly lines on the chart to tell me when I should be selling some (or all)

All this a a load of codswallop eh .... but sort of shows how good FPH has to perform over many years to justify current share price

Dont forget what my signature means


Your discount rate seems very high. Are you considering the risk profile of this company? How did you arrive at 8.5%?

[Muse]

OK Ferg

I've revisited revenue assumptions and come up with some 'realistic' forecasts. These being flat in F22 and then returning to much the past trajectory. Gives about 11% pa growth over the next 10 years.

Assumed margins returning to 66% of sales and assumed realistic expense increases. Reality check is EBITDA margin increasing from 40% of sales to 44% ...hmmm. Ongoing capex as guided by FPH. Discount rate 8.5%.

For what its worth that gives a DCF value $28.34

Chart shows assumed sales trajectory over the next 10 years

I'm still can't justify increasing my exposure to FPH at current prices .... just keeping a close watch on squiggly lines on the chart to tell me when I should be selling some (or all)

All this a a load of codswallop eh .... but sort of shows how good FPH has to perform over many years to justify current share price

Dont forget what my signature means

Good work Winner. I'm in your camp - I don't see value anywhere near the current share price. FPH and RYM in particular are why I don't want to buy ETF's of the NZ market when money comes in that I want to put to work.

Call me crazy but I can't help but seeing revenue and more importantly NPAT falling from the current peak. When those results are showing reasonable double digit decreases on the prior corresponding period I think that will be a big catalyst for SP falls.

I saw a scatter plot of forward PE's and 2 year EPS's cagrs and FPH was off the scale expensive.

[winner69]

Your discount rate seems very high. Are you considering the risk profile of this company? How did you arrive at 8.5%?

The 8.5% is my (rather modest) expected returns. 'Risk' per se is managed through a safety margin and with current share price $33.00 v DCF $28.34 that's non existent.

[Biscuit]

... just keeping a close watch on squiggly lines on the chart to tell me when I should be selling some (or all)....




Problem is, several times in the past I have sold down FPH and every time I do it turns out with hindsight to be the worst decision I ever made.

[alokdhir]

With hospitalisations reaching past last year's peak and rising ...I think rates vs new waves is trying a duel for SP ...its becoming another bumper half year for FPH ...maybe coming back of big boys will put some life back in SP

NZD and phenomenal covid wave world over are positives with rising rates on other side of sea saw ...still feel SP will improve soon !!

[winner69]

ATTENTION PLEASE - URGENT

BUYING TIME - think FPH share price has gone below EMA400

Need to act quick as generally doesn't stay below that line for long

[Waltzing]

support is 2970.

only just below the 180 at the mo.

[newbieinvestor]

ATTENTION PLEASE - URGENT

BUYING TIME - think FPH share price has gone below EMA400

Need to act quick as generally doesn't stay below that line for long


Correct me if I an incorrect in my reasoning winner69!! :)

I think in your earlier posts on this thread you had mentioned that your calculated FPH DCF value $28.34 and risk' per se is managed through a safety margin.... (geez.... talk of being cheeky! :D)

I am guessing to take up a longer term position with that safety of margin the SP might need to decline a tad more..... thanks for the heads up and informative posts....:t_up:

[winner69]

Correct me if I an incorrect in my reasoning winner69!! :)

I think in your earlier posts on this thread you had mentioned that your calculated FPH DCF value $28.34 and risk' per se is managed through a safety margin.... (geez.... talk of being cheeky! :D)

I am guessing to take up a longer term position with that safety of margin the SP might need to decline a tad more..... thanks for the heads up and informative posts....:t_up:

My bad …I should have tagged the urgent message as relevant to existing long term committed investors who take such opportunities to top up when shRe price is weak.

My fundamental DCF value still much the same ….market still disagrees with me eh

[alokdhir]

Full conviction buying time ....IMHO ...lucky to get it around these levels ...but TBH it keeps coming here every 2-3 months ...as sentiment and valuations are not that flash at the moment ...

[Joshuatree]

Hope there's a market update imminently like last year (22nd Jan).Interest rates rising means future cash flows discounted more for these high pe stocks is what I'm trying to get a handle on.

[winner69]

NZD:USD down to 0.67

Wasn’t that long it was heading to the mid 70s


That’s good FPH

[alokdhir]

Aged care sold off for Omicron fear ...FPH sold off for rates and inflation fears ...No place to hide in the market ...lol ...Even low NZD not helping at the moment

What about an EPS over last years ? Will it help W69 ?

[kiora]

With ongoing construction of infrastructure in Auckland I am optimistic of FPH maintaining forward momentum

[Joshuatree]

Aged care sold off for Omicron fear ...FPH sold off for rates and inflation fears ...No place to hide in the market ...lol ...Even low NZD not helping at the moment

What about an EPS over last years ? Will it help W69 ?

Value stocks and energy stocks a place to be,value to protect your wealth ,energy to increase it imo.

[newbieinvestor]

My bad …I should have tagged the urgent message as relevant to existing long term committed investors who take such opportunities to top up when shRe price is weak.

My fundamental DCF value still much the same ….market still disagrees with me eh

winner69 (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/member.php?4303-winner69) - Yep, entered FPH nearby your calculated DCF today..... lets see how the market handles and if the SP reaches the DCF value......

[alokdhir]

FPH is exactly following Nasdaq downtrend in %age ...so looks like another down day on Monday ...May reach its last bottom of $ 27 in few days ...Unless company says something positive in trading update expected next week ...:ohmy:

[winner69]

winner69 (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/member.php?4303-winner69) - Yep, entered FPH nearby your calculated DCF today..... lets see how the market handles and if the SP reaches the DCF value......

In light of alokdhir mentioning $27 you need to recall I mentioned a margin of safety ….say 20% off that $28.34

[newbieinvestor]

FPH is exactly following Nasdaq downtrend in %age ...so looks like another down day on Monday ...May reach its last bottom of $ 27 in few days ...Unless company says something positive in trading update expected next week ...:ohmy:

@alokdhir (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/member.php?19522-alokdhir) - Thanks!! indeed FPH is following the Nasdaq downtrend ... didnt quite connect as thought this was more of a manufacturing company and not Tech ... but yeah from the looks of the nasdaq
declining & Omicron etc it will go to 28~ at least..

@winner69 (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/member.php?4303-winner69) - Thanks!! guess I thought it would bounce back faster but unlikely given nasdaq falling and omicron... should have kept a bigger margin of safety at 27-28~!


In light of alokdhir mentioning $27 you need to recall I mentioned a margin of safety ….say 20% off that $28.34

Anyways will see how it goes in tommorows trading....

[alokdhir]

Very soon market will realise ...selling FPH is not a very wise move ...lol

NZD will drop on record current account deficit due to tourist & foreign students dollars missing ...Exports need pick up the slack...for that NZD need drop to around 60 cents levels

" The annual current account deficit was $15.9 billion in the year ended 30 September 2021 (4.6 percent of GDP), $13.5 billion wider than the year ended 30 September 2020. The largest annual current account deficit prior to this was $14.7 billion (7.8 percent of GDP) in the year ended 31 December 2008, during the 2007–2009 global financial crisis.The change in the goods balance from a $2.0 billion surplus in the year ended 30 September 2020 to a $3.8 billion deficit in the year ended 30 September 2021, and the change in the services balance from a $2.7 billion surplus to a $4.3 billion deficit, over the same period, were the biggest drivers of change to the annual current account."

[newbieinvestor]

Very soon market will realise ...selling FPH is not a very wise move ...lol

NZD will drop on record current account deficit due to tourist & foreign students dollars missing ...Exports need pick up the slack...for that NZD need drop to around 60 cents levels

" The annual current account deficit was $15.9 billion in the year ended 30 September 2021 (4.6 percent of GDP), $13.5 billion wider than the year ended 30 September 2020. The largest annual current account deficit prior to this was $14.7 billion (7.8 percent of GDP) in the year ended 31 December 2008, during the 2007–2009 global financial crisis.The change in the goods balance from a $2.0 billion surplus in the year ended 30 September 2020 to a $3.8 billion deficit in the year ended 30 September 2021, and the change in the services balance from a $2.7 billion surplus to a $4.3 billion deficit, over the same period, were the biggest drivers of change to the annual current account."

@alokdhir (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/member.php?19522-alokdhir) - Very well explained :t_up: (the current NZ account deficit) ...The NZD looks weaker each day vs USD moving from .71 -->.671
Have been looking to convert some NZD into USD to diversify & invest in declining US stocks for the long term.... but each day the NZD is looking weaker and perhaps the USD is also gaining strength...
Say if someone was trying to invest 50K NZD(FIF limit) they would earlier get 35+K USD and now they get 33.5K USD and going lower....
Just when the correction in US markets begun :eek2:.... (bite the bullet or Smartshare-like ETFs)... well thats life! :)

Anyway FPH results\updates should be good...whether if that reflects in the SP might be another thing I wouldn't know....;).....

Cheers!

[moose]

Very soon market will realise ...selling FPH is not a very wise move ...lol

NZD will drop on record current account deficit due to tourist & foreign students dollars missing ...Exports need pick up the slack...for that NZD need drop to around 60 cents levels

" The annual current account deficit was $15.9 billion in the year ended 30 September 2021 (4.6 percent of GDP), $13.5 billion wider than the year ended 30 September 2020. The largest annual current account deficit prior to this was $14.7 billion (7.8 percent of GDP) in the year ended 31 December 2008, during the 2007–2009 global financial crisis.The change in the goods balance from a $2.0 billion surplus in the year ended 30 September 2020 to a $3.8 billion deficit in the year ended 30 September 2021, and the change in the services balance from a $2.7 billion surplus to a $4.3 billion deficit, over the same period, were the biggest drivers of change to the annual current account."

FPH share price has made very little sense since Aug 2020. Prior to COVID having any impact it was sitting in the low-mid $20s. Since then we have had a global respiratory disease pandemic that has given them almost unlimited free advertising and boosted their growth by "at least 3 years" - in their words (and they have a consistent track record of about 15% YoY growth). Yet the SP has risen about 20-30% (depending on your exact starting point) which is less than the US indices (and F&P is essentially a US company from a revenue growth perspective (it is already the dominant player in NZ/Oz).

Its products are in no way COVID-specific, it has virtually no debt, a huge history of achievement and one of the best management teams around - but is unloved by the market and is currently being considered as a high-risk tech stock.....go figure.

NZ Inc may be heading for the ****ter according to many posts here (and I don't necessarily disagree) - but FPH (with MFT) are still a good way to get exposure to overseas economic conditions without holding foreign shares (with all the tax implications of that).

Perhaps the issue is that FPH is seen as too good a stock for traders at the moment and with a yield of 1-2% you need a 5yr+ horizon in the current interest rate enviroment?

[winner69]

Huge 3% plus swing this morning ...up of course

[Joshuatree]

Mkt is discounting future cashflows now that int rates are rising hence high PE stocks on a downward cycle.

[alokdhir]

When FPH was trading at P/E of 50 at that time OCR was 4% ....so its not that simple to justify SP of FPH ...but its sentiment and valuations are at lowest ebb it has ever been ...What goes down will come up if u are a patient investor .

Today maybe bounce day for it as it went downhill much sooner then other blue chips .

[winner69]

Jeez ..if NZD goes sub 60 that’ll be significant for FPH earnings

Huge tailwinds

Alokdhir …any idea how many zillions say a 5 cent drop impacts bottom line

[alokdhir]

Jeez ..if NZD goes sub 60 that’ll be significant for FPH earnings

Huge tailwinds

Alokdhir …any idea how many zillions say a 5 cent drop impacts bottom line

I have read it here in some post that every cent down adds about $ 5 million to bottom line ...so 7 cents should add $ 35 million so roughly 5-8% EPS growth ...

Also at that time when that post was written ...maybe 1.5 years back ...sales were much lower then now ...so rough estimate maybe every 1 % NZD drop should add 1 % to EPS .

At present due to OMICRON not effecting lungs that much ...most analysts are thinking no respiratory support needed in hospitals for Covid patients thus FPH equipment not being utilised as before ...its much less then Delta times ...but data from South African Covid Hospital portal ( Its most informative portal providing complete covid hospitalisation details including numbers of oxygen and ventilation support out of total numbers in hospitals ) shows its roughly 17.5 % hospital patients still need respiratory support . So I am pretty sure FPH equipment is being used and they will be doing alright ahead too . Delta is not totally gone but Omicron by its sheer numbers is in limelight .

https://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-index/disease-index-covid-19/surveillance-reports/daily-hospital-surveillance-datcov-report/


We will get some idea about December exports from Stats NZ on 26th morning ....though now estimations going awry recently ..lol

[Monarch]

Even if omicron causes 1/5 of the hospitalisations as the other variants, the exponential nature of viruses mean that without ironclad restrictions on transmission we will still see a great deal of hospitalisations. Certainly doesn't help that public fear is significantly lower now. Do not discount omicron, or worse, discount what comes next. That applies to more than just FPH stock. Viruses tend to become more contagious and less severe over time, but the random nature of mutation means we could face a more severe more contagious strain.

[alokdhir]

Many factors effecting SP of FPH ...Rising rates and market sentiment on downside due its high valuations ....Covid situation and falling NZD on upside ...

On balance I think it will be staying in $ 28 - $ 32 range only ...hopefully

[alokdhir]

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare (F&P) delivered against the backdrop of
a weak local equity market. The company reported a strong first half result, ahead of expectations, boosted by another wave of COVID hospitalisations in the US, Asia, and certain countries in Europe. The bulk of the strength was in sales of new hardware in the Hospital division, which continues to grow the installed base of F&P products in both established and new customers (70% of hardware sales were outside of the core markets of US/Europe).
There is increasing weight of evidence to suggest that nasal high flow (key product) usage will structurally increase even as COVID wanes. This is because (1) the therapy has stood up in a crisis and doctors who are new to the products have now had first-hand experience in seeing its efficacy; (2) there is a still sharply growing installed base of F&P hardware;
(3) clinical evidence is supportive; (4) F&P is increasing its sales force
to provide education to recent adopters and increase consumable usage. Market expectations do not appear to factor this in, as medium- term forecasts remain in line with the pre COVID trajectory and imply meaningful under-utilisation of the much higher installed hardware base.

From KFL newsletter ....they are expecting higher growth ahead in medium term due to positive effects of Covid experiences of hospitals and doctors and patients

[alokdhir]

Overseas merchandise trade: December 2021

First time Stats NZ could not release this data on time ...it was supposed to be released on 26th Jan ...but for some reasons got delayed to 1st Feb ...maybe FPH exports overwhelmed them ...lol

[newbieinvestor]

FPH is exactly following Nasdaq downtrend in %age ...so looks like another down day on Monday ...May reach its last bottom of $ 27 in few days ...Unless company says something positive in trading update expected next week ...:ohmy:


Thanks Alokdhir ... lets see whether if it reaches ...27 in the coming days to buy some ... or will there be some positive announcement in the meanwhile...

[newbieinvestor]

FPH is exactly following Nasdaq downtrend in %age ...so looks like another down day on Monday ...May reach its last bottom of $ 27 in few days ...Unless company says something positive in trading update expected next week ...:ohmy:

Waiting on the sidelines.... Hopefully its last bottom 27 will be able to hold it up, if that is breached what's the next support level? Thanks!

[winner69]

Waiting on the sidelines.... Hopefully its last bottom 27 will be able to hold it up, if that is breached what's the next support level? Thanks!

Seeing you asked ..... about 13 bucks .... TA is a funny thing sometimes

Sometimes better to see what long EMA (like 200EMA or 400EMA are doing and use those as 'support'

[newbieinvestor]

Seeing you asked ..... about 13 bucks .... TA is a funny thing sometimes

Thanks winner! Well hopefully it wont come to that ... :D but you never know given the talk of war and Ukraine.. etc....

[bull....]

29 gone .... timber another very high pe stock

[newbieinvestor]

29 gone .... timber another very high pe stock

@bull - do you know of any good quality low pe stock on NZX ?:D

[bull....]

@bull - do you know of any good quality low pe stock on NZX ?:D

no but im thinking there will be some in the future

[newbieinvestor]

no but im thinking there will be some in the future
haha..:). cool! Any guesses bull for potential candidates to keep an eye on?

[bull....]

haha..:). cool! Any guesses bull for potential candidates to keep an eye on?

ill let you know when we get there

[bull....]

but in your search look for companies in a high inflation environment that have pricing power ie they can raise there prices without effecting demand and they can absorb the costs for there product or service. most companies cannot do this and higher wages , materials shipping and energy costs will eat away there profits in a high inflation environment

[alokdhir]

but in your search look for companies in a high inflation environment that have pricing power ie they can raise there prices without effecting demand and they can absorb the costs for there product or service. most companies cannot do this and higher wages , materials shipping and energy costs will eat away there profits in a high inflation environment

Have u checked EBO mate ...P/E of 32 ...doing very well still ...was up today ...

[newbieinvestor]

Have u checked EBO mate ...P/E of 32 ...doing very well still ...was up today ...

Thanks Alokdhir will keep an eye on EBO too...

Waiting on the sidelines.... Hopefully FPH last bottom 27 will be able to hold it up, if that is breached what's the next support level? Thanks!

[alokdhir]

Thanks Alokdhir will keep an eye on EBO too...

Waiting on the sidelines.... Hopefully FPH last bottom 27 will be able to hold it up, if that is breached what's the next support level? Thanks!

Stocks which are standing out in this rout are EBO , HGH , NZR , CEN , IFT , SKL & VSL ....IMHO

FPH 25-27 area should hold ...otherwise its Bull's good fortune ...lol

[winner69]

Big spike in share price at open on Monday on NZX (based on ASX close)

[BlackPeter]

Thanks Alokdhir will keep an eye on EBO too...

Waiting on the sidelines.... Hopefully FPH last bottom 27 will be able to hold it up, if that is breached what's the next support level? Thanks!

Just don't forget there is a fee as well for "waiting on the side lines" It actually did cost you 5.9% last year (cost of inflation) - and who knows how expensive it will be this year :scared: .

[newbieinvestor]

Just don't forget there is a fee as well for "waiting on the side lines" It actually did cost you 5.9% last year (cost of inflation) - and who knows how expensive it will be this year :scared: .

@BlackPeter (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/member.php?7863-BlackPeter) - Thanks BlackPeter! So true... Indeed.. there is a fee for 'waiting on the sidelines' Had recently cashed out of the stocks I had recently bought as I realized that I had very little margin of safety for my investments, wanted to protect my capital, the markets was in a downturn and would soon expose my cost prices.. Its been a learning curve... But yes your right purchasing power of NZD has reduced e.g. NZD:USD = .71 -->.65 , NZD:AUD .96 --> .935 (In order to invest in US or Oz shares) Suspect it will be a rollercoaster ride this year....


Big spike in share price at open on Monday on NZX (based on ASX close)

@ winner69 (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/member.php?4303-winner69) - Yep, should spike up on Monday given the ASX and US end of week closes. However remains to see if after the bounce back it then gradually drift down lower in the days to come till the results or any positive newsflow occurs...



Stocks which are standing out in this rout are EBO , HGH , NZR , CEN , IFT , SKL & VSL ....IMHO

FPH 25-27 area should hold ...otherwise its Bull's good fortune ...lol

@alokdhir (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/member.php?19522-alokdhir) - Thanks Alokdhir! for all the inputs. Should do some research on them and try to keep them (mix of value & growth picks)on my radar for buying opportunity on dips ...

[iceman]

@BlackPeter (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/member.php?7863-BlackPeter) - Thanks BlackPeter! So true... Indeed.. there is a fee for 'waiting on the sidelines' Had recently cashed out of the stocks I had recently bought as I realized that I had very little margin of safety for my investments, wanted to protect my capital, the markets was in a downturn and would soon expose my cost prices.. Its been a learning curve...

I find it helpful to ask myself at times like this, when there could be an urge to sell, whether the company I invested in has fundamentally changed since I last bought shares in it. If not, why sell ? Unless you are a trader of course.

Based on that, I see absolutely no reason to sell my FPH shares. I'm much more likely to increase my holding than I am to reduce it.

[newbieinvestor]

I find it helpful to ask myself at times like this, when there could be an urge to sell, whether the company I invested in has fundamentally changed since I last bought shares in it. If not, why sell ? Unless you are a trader of course.

Based on that, I see absolutely no reason to sell my FPH shares. I'm much more likely to increase my holding than I am to reduce it.

@iceman (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/member.php?9642-iceman) - Hi Iceman that is correct there is no reason to sell FPH shares and would increase your holdings in a downturn if nothing has really changed with the business.... However the caveat being a lot of people would have bought it earlier when it was in low 20's and had a margin of safety. In my case being a newbie my recent purchase point has always been above 31-32 which didnt offer much margin of safety in terms of DCF, price. If one knows that it would go below those levels. e.g. 28 it wouldn't make sense to hold on when you could increase your holdings for more shares by buying at a lower price...

[Beagle]

Just brought up a 2 year chart of FPH, something anyone can do for themselves so I won't bother to post an image.
To me it looks like FPH, subject to fairly wide oscillations around the trend, has been in a downtrend since Sept 2020 when it hit nearly $38.
There's a clear breakdown through the key 200 day moving average indicator.
On a PE of 31.
No question this has enjoyed MASSIVE tailwinds from Covid but this seems to have peaked in late 2020 and a reversion to earnings not artificially boosted by this pandemic would appear to be another concern in the medium term.

I see no logical reason to apply fresh capital here and I think high PE stocks that have been fueled by once in a hundred year near zero long term interest rates (10 year N.Z. stock got well down under 1% in late 2020 but could be back to normal level's of 4% late this year or next) are vulnerable here. My 2 cents on this one.

[winner69]

Just brought up a 2 year chart of FPH, something anyone can do for themselves so I won't bother to post an image.
To me it looks like FPH, subject to fairly wide oscillations around the trend, has been in a downtrend since Sept 2020 when it hit nearly $38.
There's a clear breakdown through the key 200 day moving average indicator.
On a PE of 31.
No question this has enjoyed MASSIVE tailwinds from Covid but this seems to have peaked in late 2020 and a reversion to earnings not artificially boosted by this pandemic would appear to be another concern in the medium term.

I see no logical reason to apply fresh capital here and I think high PE stocks that have been fueled by once in a hundred year near zero long term interest rates (10 year N.Z. stock got well down under 1% in late 2020 but could be back to normal level's of 4% late this year or next) are vulnerable here. My 2 cents on this one.

If you had mentioned slowing growth (or even declining growth) the post would have echoed what you said about A2 in that infamous post which caused so much consternation when A2 share price was over $20

But just as well this is FPH so no worries

[Biscuit]

Just brought up a 2 year chart of FPH, something anyone can do for themselves so I won't bother to post an image.
To me it looks like FPH, subject to fairly wide oscillations around the trend, has been in a downtrend since Sept 2020 when it hit nearly $38.
There's a clear breakdown through the key 200 day moving average indicator.
On a PE of 31.
No question this has enjoyed MASSIVE tailwinds from Covid but this seems to have peaked in late 2020 and a reversion to earnings not artificially boosted by this pandemic would appear to be another concern in the medium term.

I see no logical reason to apply fresh capital here and I think high PE stocks that have been fueled by once in a hundred year near zero long term interest rates (10 year N.Z. stock got well down under 1% in late 2020 but could be back to normal level's of 4% late this year or next) are vulnerable here. My 2 cents on this one.


They have -27% gearing and their market is certainly not consumer discretionary so they are not likely to be much affected by increasing interest rates? Also, they are getting tail-winds from the falling NZ dollar and should be a defensive NZ share in this environment. They have been a great trading stock over the last few months and are always a great long-term hold. I certainly wouldn't rate them a sell but you would want to be cautious buying anything at this point.

[Beagle]

They have -27% gearing and their market is certainly not consumer discretionary so they are not likely to be much affected by increasing interest rates? Also, they are getting tail-winds from the falling NZ dollar and should be a defensive NZ share in this environment. They have been a great trading stock over the last few months and are always a great long-term hold. I certainly wouldn't rate them a sell but you would want to be cautious buying anything at this point.

I don't follow this one mate but its important to understand that I am not talking about interest rates as it affects consumers, rather the 10 year Govt stock rate that affects the DCF valuation of the company. As long term interest rates increase the current value of future growth gets marked back as investors demand a better price for a company now to compensate for higher rates and future growth is generally worth less in today's dollar terms.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/FISHER-PAYKEL-HEALTHCAR-6492630/financials/
I think its well worth noting that last years result of 90 cps is regarded as the peak and the average analyst is projecting just 71, 67 and 78 cents respectively in the next 3 years.
At $28 this puts FPH on a forward prospective PE of 39 times FY22's forecasted result and 42 times FY23's result.

Those are very very expensive metrics for a company that has just experienced peak earnings and is still enjoying very strong tailwinds from Covid The yield of 1.39% is well below the 10 year risk free Govt stock rate which is now over 2.6%.

I think FPH is very vulnerable to the downtrend continuing. For those that believe the worst of the pandemic is behind us, (I am not sure I am in than camp or not) this looks like a pretty good short opportunity to me.

Despite all this, this stock is well covered by 9 analysts which is very good coverage for a N.Z. stock, who undoubtedly know more about it than I do and the average price target is $31.71 so you should take my comments with the grain of salt they probably deserve.

For me. I don't believe super high PE's in near term earnings decline will work best in this environment...but like all things, time will tell.

Hope my friend Couta1 reads this post. Consider it a warning mate, I really don't like these metrics and the trend down is not your friend.

[winner69]

..........

I don't follow this one mate but its important to understand that I am not talking about interest rates as it affects consumers, rather the 10 year Govt stock rate that affects the DCF valuation of the company. As long term interest rates increase the current value of future growth gets marked back as investors demand a better price for a company now to compensate for higher rates and future growth is generally worth less in today's dollar terms.



I did a DCF valuation with pretty bullish growth assumptions not that long ago ....as I posted that came in at about $28

If I increased the discount rate by 1% point (and kept the growth assumptions the same) the DCF is about $4 lower - about $24

Increase the discount rate by a further 1% point and the DCF is about another $4 lower - about $20

Nothing changed except the discount rate - all the bullish growth assumptions remained the same .... just pointing out the sensitivity of discount rates on valuations .... like Beagle alluded to

Doesn't matter much because the collective knowledge of 9 guru analysts can't be wrong with an average of $31.71 can it ..... but then again one of the gurus came in at $23.50 ... must be an outlier

[winner69]

Just brought up a 2 year chart of FPH, something anyone can do for themselves so I won't bother to post an image.
To me it looks like FPH, subject to fairly wide oscillations around the trend, has been in a downtrend since Sept 2020 when it hit nearly $38.
.


Yep the high was $37.89 on Aug 28 2020 ... and has essentially been in a downtrend since

What's really spooky is that late August 2020 was when ATM peaked and started heading south

So market sentiment at that time affected the high flyers

Spooky eh ..... be a bit messy if FPH started a series of not so optimistic announcements ...one never knows

[Beagle]

Fisher funds have loved on FPH for many years...same for MFT and IFT, the 3 combined making up a staggering 52% of their "diversified" listed Kingfish fund as at the most recent disclosure. We know ATM was once one of their favored market darlings too and they "managed" the level of their investment there at what could best be described as a "glacial speed". (I'll leave others to decide for themselves on whether the lack of diversification amounts to "recklessness").

Thing is, with the entire FF group, listed, unit trust and Kiwisaver funds all having their funds allocated along similar lines, with them formerly being a default Kiwisaver provider they used to get tens of millions of fresh funds coming in every month to support their investment thesis...now not so much.

Its hard to see how a company on a forward PE of about 40 with those earnings augmented by the strong tailwind of Covid can be an opportunity other than for people shorting it.

Is high inflation and much higher interest rates going to bite huge chunks out of the price of high PE stocks this year ? You folks be the judge but for my money I am hiding in value stocks, GARP (growth at a reasonable price stocks) GNE and a very high current allocation to cash and short term deposits. it might be worth noting that cash outperformed the market by 10% this month !

Its very UGLY out there, be careful folks, there's no rule that says you always need to be fully invested in the market.

[Biscuit]

I did a DCF valuation with pretty bullish growth assumptions not that long ago ....as I posted that came in at about $28

If I increased the discount rate by 1% point (and kept the growth assumptions the same) the DCF is about $4 lower - about $24

Increase the discount rate by a further 1% point and the DCF is about another $4 lower - about $20

Nothing changed except the discount rate - all the bullish growth assumptions remained the same .... just pointing out the sensitivity of discount rates on valuations .... like Beagle alluded to

Doesn't matter much because the collective knowledge of 9 guru analysts can't be wrong with an average of $31.71 can it ..... but then again one of the gurus came in at $23.50 ... must be an outlier

Sure, but to be fair, your original discount rate was 8.5%. Who on here could get an alternative, risk-free rate of return of 8.5%? Your base case to me is unrealistic as it neither reflects the cost of capital, the depreciation of capital or the realistic alternative returns available for that capital. And why would 9.5% or 10.5% be more realistic?

[winner69]

Sure, but to be fair, your original discount rate was 8.5%. Who on here could get an alternative, risk-free rate of return of 8.5%? Your base case to me is unrealistic as it neither reflects the cost of capital, the depreciation of capital or the realistic alternative returns available for that capital. And why would 9.5% or 10.5% be more realistic?

Irrespective of what discount rate I used I was just trying to show that increased rates lead to lower valuations ..... and if I had used say 5% an increase to 6% reduces valuation by about 20%

ANd who says the discount rate has to be the cost of capital - better to use what the investor expects as a return, shouldn't that be the way?

Mate at a big accounting says FPH WACC about 6.5% to 7.5%

[Biscuit]

Fisher funds have loved on FPH for many years...same for MFT and IFT, the 3 combined making up a staggering 52% of their "diversified" listed Kingfish fund as at the most recent disclosure. We know ATM was once one of their favored market darlings too and they "managed" the level of their investment there at what could best be described as a "glacial speed". (I'll leave others to decide for themselves on whether the lack of diversification amounts to "recklessness").

Thing is, with the entire FF group, listed, unit trust and Kiwisaver funds all having their funds allocated along similar lines, with them formerly being a default Kiwisaver provider they used to get tens of millions of fresh funds coming in every month to support their investment thesis...now not so much.

Its hard to see how a company on a forward PE of about 40 with those earnings augmented by the strong tailwind of Covid can be an opportunity other than for people shorting it.

Is high inflation and much higher interest rates going to bite huge chunks out of the price of high PE stocks this year ? You folks be the judge but for my money I am hiding in value stocks, GARP (growth at a reasonable price stocks) GNE and a very high current allocation to cash and short term deposits. it might be worth noting that cash outperformed the market by 10% this month !

Its very UGLY out there, be careful folks, there's no rule that says you always need to be fully invested in the market.

I agree that is a sensible strategy at the moment. My NZX portfolio is diverse and I intend to keep it that way regardless, although I have pushed a bit more into financials and dividend stocks in the last 6 months. Certainly the "growth stocks" have been a bit shocking. But its swings and roundabouts and unless you have small holdings its not necessarily wise, easy or risk-free to significantly reorganize a portfolio.

[Biscuit]

Irrespective of what discount rate I used I was just trying to show that increased rates lead to lower valuations ..... and if I had used say 5% an increase to 6% reduces valuation by about 20%

ANd who says the discount rate has to be the cost of capital - better to use what the investor expects as a return, shouldn't that be the way?

Mate at a big accounting says FPH WACC about 6.5% to 7.5%

You are probably a better investor than me as my budgeted, long-term (30 year) expected return is 6% pa. 8.5% would make my budget look very good as long as govt manages to meet the long-term inflation target of 2.5%.

[kiora]

$10,000 invested in 2006 in FPH has compounded return of around 16% to date. Now worth around $109,000
My long term view for what its worth, is compounding at 15% long term.
It will be as it will be.

[alokdhir]

You are probably a better investor than me as my budgeted, long-term (30 year) expected return is 6% pa. 8.5% would make my budget look very good as long as govt manages to meet the long-term inflation target of 2.5%.

With 8.5 % he came to SP of $ 28 and told us that with every one percent increase it gets reduced by $ 4 ...so judging by more realistic rate of 6% it should be ....$ 38 ....so all these calculations can get any result which u looking for .

I am not at all negative on FPH especially at these levels ...even Bull will be going long in FPH soon as its in trading range of $ 27 to $ 36 ...as written by him here when last time it was here ...

Many people here are actual Sharetraders and they dont like to be investors ...like FF ...they are investors not traders ....STEEP ...they invest in companies having long runways of growth . They have MFT since launch of KFL ie 2004 ...

One doesnt make money in trading ...its made by investing in right companies for long term

FPH / MFT / IFT / SUM / AIA are all long term investment grade companies and they will continue to do well ..

No need to react to every 10-15 % tremor ...that way many would have sold out in last crash and would have lost the great opportunity of biggest comebacks of the markets in next few months .

I know this forum is called Sharetrader forum ...but some are investors also here ...this trading style advise is not for investors . Eventually markets go up and they will still ...I wont be reacting to change anything ...just do some minor adjustments .

[Beagle]

Fair enough folks. Best wishes to holders.

[Panda-NZ-]

With 8.5 % he came to SP of $ 28 and told us that with every one percent increase it gets reduced by $ 4 ...so judging by more realistic rate of 6% it should be ....$ 38 ....so all these calculations can get any result which u looking for .


The currency is going down which is great for FPH in theory.

[winner69]

Kingfish still in love with FPH

Appears as if they have been buying all way down from the highs. Went big in Mar 2021 quarter

Had just over 2 million shares at Aug 2020 - now have about 2.7m shares $90m

[Beagle]

Must be a great life for Sam Dickie and his team. Really hard to imagine how they fill in the week. I suppose in between a few super long lunches with influential wealthy people they might read the occasional analyst report from time to time, have a meeting once a week with the investment team, read sharetrader and think what a bunch of numpties we all are, especially that Beagle...sit around and drink the best coffee all week and then keep buying the same old stuff they always do when some more money comes into the kitty. 52% of their invested funds in just 3 stocks. WOW !!...and they seem really miffed that the Govt kicked them to the curb with default Kiwisaver status...

Sounds like an ideal job for a lazy old dog like me, I missed my calling lol

[winner69]

Must be a great life for Sam Dickie and his team. Really hard to imagine how they fill in the week.........read sharetrader and think what a bunch of numpties we all are,.............

Ha ha .... many hours to fill in eh .............must give them a buzz when a few regulars on here praise them though

[SPC]

Beagle. You're doing another KPG. You say you're 'out'. What's the point in barking on about something that has no interest to you now?. Tell us about what you do own and maybe stocks you want to own.
Or you're favourite banks and term deposits. Forget about Fisher mate and move on.

[winner69]

Beagle. You're doing another KPG. You say you're 'out'. What's the point in barking on about something that has no interest to you now?. Tell us about what you do own and maybe stocks you want to own.
Or you're favourite banks and term deposits. Forget about Fisher mate and move on.

Beagle maybe filling in time waiting and keeping informed (the responses to his posts always bring out the reasons why one should be holding or buying) for FPH to go sub par 20 bucks ..... might be wanting to own at those levels

[Rawz]

Beagles barking is very valuable. He didn’t own ATM and barked day and night about their woes. It eventually sunk in and saved me some money as I sold at $16 rather than what possibly could have been much much lower.

Personally I think FPH is great and hold in my portfolio and have picked in the 2022 comp. I’m looking to top up soon as well. I don’t agree with what Beagle and Winner are saying but do read and reflect on their posts.

[SPC]

Except that the thread title is FPH.
Not Fisher Funds.
Constructive observation is fine. Chewing the bone is good. Throwing it over the fence and hitting the neighbours dog on the head achieves little.

[Rawz]

I picked FPH for 2022 because I wanted to be in healthcare. EBOS in there as well. Financials and construction are the other industries I wanted exposure to. TRA, HMY, STU, FBU in.

2021 was very heavy retail for me and I have almost exited all my retail holdings.

FPH have an exceptional track record of growth and I believe that is set to continue for years and years. COVID gave FPH great exposure which can be built on. It’s one of those stocks that you put $10k into and it’s worth $100k in 10-20 years or so. I don’t think 30-40 p/e is unreasonable for a growing blue chip healthcare stock. Very safe place to be invested and recession proof. If it traded on a 20 p/e omg I would be all in

[alokdhir]

Beagle maybe filling in time waiting and keeping informed (the responses to his posts always bring out the reasons why one should be holding or buying) for FPH to go sub par 20 bucks ..... might be wanting to own at those levels

But its not fair to holders when someone keeps highlighting the negative aspects only of their stocks . There must be something positive about FPH also ...but only say how pricey and high P/E and its only covid story etc etc is not in good spirit ...IMHO . After all its the most valuable company and they being a manufacturing company could rise to challenge of 2020 and thus got Company of the year award ...still people want to compare it with ATM who didn't even know their inventory levels ...One trick pony vs FPH ....just no comparison .

[Rawz]

Yes alokdhir comparing FPH and ATM is laughable. I suspect Winner is just stirring the pot lol

[alokdhir]

Yes alokdhir comparing FPH and ATM is laughable. I suspect Winner is just stirring the pot lol

W69 I know but I was referring to Dog ...he said same about MFT too ...maybe he wants us to sell all good stocks so he can buy ...lol

[Beagle]

But its not fair to holders when someone keeps highlighting the negative aspects only of their stocks . There must be something positive about FPH also ...but only say how pricey and high P/E and its only covid story etc etc is not in good spirit ...IMHO . After all its the most valuable company and they being a manufacturing company could rise to challenge of 2020 and thus got Company of the year award ...still people want to compare it with ATM who didn't even know their inventory levels ...One trick pony vs FPH ....just no comparison .

The spooky thing with ATM and FPH was their confirmed long term downtrends both started in the same month...August 2020. Coincidence or has this something to do with their stretched metrics not stacking up as long term interest rates started to rise ? You folks be the judge.

To be fair, there's no question FPH is a great company. Stripping out the huge tailwinds of Covid and looking back the last five years eps grew from 20.4 cps in 2015 to 50 cps in March 2020 that's a very impressive CAGR of 20% per annum over that 5 year period. Extrapolating that forward suggests that by FY22 they should be earning 72 cps and interestingly, albeit supported by strong Covid tailwinds, analysts are projecting almost exactly that at 71 cps. So that's a 7 year track record of average eps growth of 20% per annum, deeply impressive, no question....but then the wheels are projected to fall off the growth with average analyst forecasts of just 67 cps for FY23 and 78 cps for FY24. https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/FISHER-PAYKEL-HEALTHCAR-6492630/financials/

A highly innovative company with a deeply impressive track record of strong growth but in a confirmed downtrend since August 2020 and on a FY23 PE of 43 in a strongly rising interest and inflation environment. Priced for perfection...you folks be the judge.

For mine, I'd be interested if the downtrend continues down into the very low $20 range. GLTAH.

[winner69]

$10,000 invested in 2006 in FPH has compounded return of around 16% to date. Now worth around $109,000
My long term view for what its worth, is compounding at 15% long term.
It will be as it will be.

Well done

Keep that up and FPH share price will be about $230 in 2036

Those who think that 5% pa is an 'acceptable' return (ie the discount rate) are looking forward to/ expecting a share price of about $60
in 15 years. My modest 8.5% pa would give about $100



Nominal returns as well

[winner69]

Marketscreener shows analyst Free cash flow forecasts as -

Act 2021 441m F22 360m F23 313m and F24 338m

Jeez they are quite a lower than my model comes up with .... must revisit my model methinks

And this from a $16 billion company - nearly 50 times free cash flow ...wow

[winner69]

What might happen to FPH sales if many factory workers have to isolate because of omicron and production is dramatically cut back.

Ansell shares plunged today after they said they had to close a factory because of the number of covid cases in it.

[Shareguy]

I have had shares in FPH for a very long time. From memory I started buying at $2.75 and since then have made the mistake of selling a good portion. This is a quality company and as such commands and deserves the current PE in my opinion. Over the years I have heard from many experts who have said “it’s overvalued” yet over time it has consistently performed.

As far as the risk from cv19. I no someone who works there and can say that thier Highbrook plant had many cases last year. There was no outbreaks at all. All staff have blue chip cards so staff movement is very well controlled and reported.

I think it should be in everyone’s portfolio. Great buying under $30 and stick in the bottom drawer.

[Beagle]

Down from $33.40 to $27.75 = 17% in just the last 4 weeks, no worries. Beat the 27% decline in WHS !..so all good.

[newbieinvestor]

At 16:45 the price was $28:31, at 16:59 it closes as $27.75....Hmmmm..........:sleep:

[iceman]

Down from $33.40 to $27.75 = 17% in just the last 4 weeks, no worries. Beat the 27% decline in WHS !..so all good.

Always interesting when you decide to start hammering the threads with negative posts ! I looked up highs & lows of 3 companies you´ve been favouring in the last few weeks/months. Here are their highs and lows for the last 4 weeks:
OCA 134-112
HLG 719-624
BOT 505-428

All pretty close to the swings in FPH. Sigh.:ohmy:

[RTM]

Always interesting when you decide to start hammering the threads with negative posts ! I looked up highs & lows of 3 companies you´ve been favouring in the last few weeks/months. Here are their highs and lows for the last 4 weeks:
OCA 134-112
HLG 719-624
BOT 505-428

All pretty close to the swings in FPH. Sigh.:ohmy:

Yes...I value Beagles posts, but one does have to be aware that he can produce a convincing argument either way, any stock, any time, depending on what his perspective is of things is at that time.
Not a holder...but constantly reminded by wife that she told me to buy some 10 years or so ago......

[winner69]

OMG - from Stats NZ Oversseas Merchandise Data for December

Respiratory equipment down $50 million (35%) ... from December 2020

And that follows November being down $51 million or 41%

Brutal - hope Forbar don't use this data for their modelling anymore

[Rawz]

OMG - from Stats NZ Oversseas Merchandise Data for December

Respiratory equipment down $50 million (35% ... from December 2020

Brutal - hope Forbar don't use this data for their modelling anymore

W69, i dont suppose you got one of your cool graphs plotting the entire year?

35% down is a worry. But were the other months 35% up sort of thing?

[winner69]

W69, i dont suppose you got one of your cool graphs plotting the entire year?

35% down is a worry. But were the other months 35% up sort of thing?

November was 41% down

Alokdhir has all the data

Remember down from unprecendented 2020 levels ...but down all the same

[Rawz]

Do FPH make more from hardware or consumables?

[alokdhir]

Do FPH make more from hardware or consumables?

Latest exports data has been released today ...as now the mix is more consumables then hardware from NZ thus the original estimate correlation is not that reliable thats why mine as well as FB half year estimates or forecasts were much below actuals

Still they have done the best in December ...my estimate of their revenues is $ 185 mil and of last qtr of $ 510 mil

To answer your original question ...IMO they do make much more money on consumables then hardware thats why surprisingly their margins improved in last results .

If all goes well for them they may end up doing close to $ 2 Billion sales or nearby to it this year .

Gradon FPH CEO very clearly said during half yearly results that next 6 months will be less then PCP but surely more then last 6 months ...that imply more then 900 mil but less then 1050 mil ...

Nothing much to worry ...they are doing much better then all the estimates of analysts of 65 cents to 75 cents EPS ...closer to 90 Cents is most likely with NZD helping . Interest rates dont matter to EPS as they have no loans but are cash surplus ...but they matter for valuation purpose .

At the moment FPH is trading at its lowest valuations historically due to lack of visibility of earnings and analysts not able to read their business confidently

To put things in right perspective ....FPH SP was $ 22.10 on 3rd Jan 2020 pre covid .. Company Forecasted NP was 255 Mil to 265 Mil and OCR was 1% ...so forward P/E was 49 .

Now most likely NP is $500 -510 Mil almost double of 2020 with OCR at 0.75 % and tending up its trading at $ 28 at forward P/E of 31 .


So its valuations are at historic low multiples already for various reasons ...surely they can go further down but company of the like of FPH which has wide Moat and highest quality of earnings due to earnings dependability , is well placed to bear current storm . Surely a hold or add at current levels

“At current exchange rates we continue to expect full year operating revenue for the 2020 financial year to be approximately $1.19 billion and net profit after tax to be in the range of approximately $255 to $265 million. " Extract from Nov 2019 results

[Rawz]

Latest exports data has been released today ...as now the mix is more consumables then hardware from NZ thus the original estimate correlation is not that reliable thats why mine as well as FB half year estimates or forecasts were much below actuals

Still they have done the best in December ...my estimate of their revenues is $ 185 mil and of last qtr of $ 510 mil

To answer your original question ...IMO they do make much more money on consumables then hardware thats why surprisingly their margins improved in last results .

If all goes well for them they may end up doing close to $ 2 Billion sales or nearby to it this year .

Gradon FPH CEO very clearly said during half yearly results that next 6 months will be less then PCP but surely more then last 6 months ...that imply more then 900 mil but less then 1050 mil ...

Nothing much to worry ...they are doing much better then all the estimates of analysts of 65 cents to 75 cents EPS ...closer to 90 Cents is most likely with NZD helping . Interest rates dont matter to EPS as they have no loans but are cash surplus ...but they matter for valuation purpose .

At the moment FPH is trading at its lowest valuations historically due to lack of visibility of earnings and analysts not able to read their business confidently

To put things in right perspective ....FPH SP was $ 22.10 on 3rd Jan 2020 pre covid .. Company Forecasted NP was 255 Mil to 265 Mil and OCR was 1% ...so forward P/E was 49 .

Now most likely NP is $500 -510 Mil almost double of 2020 with OCR at 0.75 % and tending up its trading at $ 28 at forward P/E of 31 .


So its valuations are at historic low multiples already for various reasons ...surely they can go further down but company of the like of FPH which has wide Moat and highest quality of earnings due to earnings dependability , is well placed to bear current storm . Surely a hold or add at current levels

“At current exchange rates we continue to expect full year operating revenue for the 2020 financial year to be approximately $1.19 billion and net profit after tax to be in the range of approximately $255 to $265 million. " Extract from Nov 2019 results

Love your work alokdhir

[kiora]

Yes concur there. Great work alokdhir

[iceman]

A great post alokdhir. Thank you for your great work.

[winner69]

Love the passion in your posts alokdhir .... good post

Hasn't convinced me to increase my exposure to FPH (ie wanting more than a respectable return on the new investment) ..... or really allayed my fears that FPH share price will keep falling whittling away at gains made.

All this talk that property prices need to fall .... some say 25% and the Greens say 50% ....The OECD is even worried ....made me think heck FPH already down 25% from its high ..... probably highlights what can happen when speculative bubbles deflate.

[Joshuatree]

Not convinced one bit.Great company but in the wrong cycle as the shift to Value stocks continues.

[winner69]

What are the bollies telling us at the moment?

[Biscuit]

....All this talk that property prices need to fall .... some say 25% and the Greens say 50% .........


Personally, I wouldn't take investment advice from the Greens.

[alokdhir]

Love the passion in your posts alokdhir .... good post

Hasn't convinced me to increase my exposure to FPH (ie wanting more than a respectable return on the new investment) ..... or really allayed my fears that FPH share price will keep falling whittling away at gains made.

All this talk that property prices need to fall .... some say 25% and the Greens say 50% ....The OECD is even worried ....made me think heck FPH already down 25% from its high ..... probably highlights what can happen when speculative bubbles deflate.

Passion comes from what I saw it doing for me ...holder since 2010 ...$ 2.42 was my buy ....so I know the power of holding a long term winner ...Yes many people wrote it off when in late 2018 patent infringement case was filed against it by Res Med ...it dropped almost 40% in 3 months ...but had spectacular 2019 and 2020 ...similarly its going thru consolidation period after tremendous run ...just needs more patience ...U need to believe in company and its management to grow ...eventually SP will follow EPS growth . Rates and many other stuff came from 2010 to 2022 ...its still done wonderfully for me 2.42 to 30 in less then 12 years so why stop believing in it ...just because Greens want property prices down ...lol

Since when u started making financial decisions based on politicians talks and dreams ...:p

[SPC]

I started when I heard Deng Xiaoping say
" to be rich is glorious ".

[winner69]

FPH is exactly following Nasdaq downtrend in %age ...so looks like another down day on Monday ...May reach its last bottom of $ 27 in few days ...Unless company says something positive in trading update expected next week ...:ohmy:


Hope FPH has given up that habit of following the Nasdaq

[alokdhir]

Hope FPH has given up that habit of following the Nasdaq

Mainly it follows its healthcare sector like RMD kind of stocks ...they held up pretty well today as its mainly tech rout ...but u never know ...when so many are negative FPH then any excuse is good to sell it down ...lol

[newbieinvestor]

Must be a great life for Sam Dickie and his team. Really hard to imagine how they fill in the week. I suppose in between a few super long lunches with influential wealthy people they might read the occasional analyst report from time to time, have a meeting once a week with the investment team, read sharetrader and think what a bunch of numpties we all are, especially that Beagle...sit around and drink the best coffee all week and then keep buying the same old stuff they always do when some more money comes into the kitty. 52% of their invested funds in just 3 stocks. WOW !!...and they seem really miffed that the Govt kicked them to the curb with default Kiwisaver status...

Sounds like an ideal job for a lazy old dog like me, I missed my calling lol


Sam Dickie bats\bets on FPH :)
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/127589417/fisher--paykel-healthcare-boomed-during-the-pandemic-what-is-the-outlook-now

[Beagle]

Sam Dickie bats\bets on FPH :)
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/127589417/fisher--paykel-healthcare-boomed-during-the-pandemic-what-is-the-outlook-now

Seen quite a lot or media articles lately from the Fisher funds investment team, far more than I can recall ever seeing previously. The only logical explanation for this is they must be worried about investment funds outflow since they lost their Kiwisaver default status in December 2021 and the market underperformance of all their funds in recent months. Heard a lot from their chief investment officer Ashley Gardyne, now Sam Dickie. Must be Robbie Urquhart's turn next. (Barramundi senior portfolio manager).

There is huge analyst coverage of this, N.Z.'s largest stock by market capitalisation. Ten analysts covering it. FPH a great company but priced on 44.5 times FY23's average analyst forecast earnings. https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/FISHER-PAYKEL-HEALTHCAR-6492630/financials/

[winner69]

Seen quite a lot or media articles lately from the Fisher funds investment team, far more than I can recall ever seeing previously. The only logical explanation for this is they must be worried about investment funds outflow since they lost their Kiwisaver default status in December 2021 and the market underperformance of all their funds in recent months. Heard a lot from their chief investment officer Ashley Gardyne, now Sam Dickie. Must be Robbie Urquhart's turn next. (Barramundi senior portfolio manager).

There is huge analyst coverage of this, N.Z.'s largest stock by market capitalisation. Ten analysts covering it. FPH a great company but priced on 44.5 times FY23's average analyst forecast earnings. https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/FISHER-PAYKEL-HEALTHCAR-6492630/financials/

When FPH was trading at P/E of 50 at that time OCR was 4% .…..so 44.5 cheap

[Beagle]

When FPH was trading at P/E of 50 at that time OCR was 4% .…..so 44.5 cheap

Back up the truck then mate...what could possibly go wrong ;)

[alokdhir]

FPH in their actuals HY results have done a NP of $ 222 Mil ...ie is almost 40 Cents done ...also their CEO has said we will do better then this in next 6 months ...say 42 Cents ...just better to amuse some people here ...that makes it 82 Cents EPS ...almost worst case ...How it becomes 44.5 at SP of $ 29.50 fails me ...!! Maybe I need maths lessons again ...lol

Analysts of market screener incudes Morningstar who has a strong sell on almost all growth stocks of NZ ...also they have a buy for PPH ...how many are buying PPH ....people should not quote analysts valuations selectively ....OCA was big buy with average target of over 1.71 ....I rest my case ...:p