FPH - Fisher Paykel Healthcare.

[tango]

FLLYR: FPH: Record full year result for FPH: net profit up 82% 08:30a.m.
FPH
27/05/2021 08:30
FLLYR
PRICE SENSITIVE
REL: 0830 HRS Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation Limited

FLLYR: FPH: Record full year result for FPH: net profit up 82%

News Release
STOCK EXCHANGE LISTINGS: NEW ZEALAND (FPH), AUSTRALIA (FPH)

Record full year result for Fisher & Paykel Healthcare: net profit up 82%

Auckland, New Zealand, 27 May 2021 - Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation
Limited today announced its results for the full year ended 31 March 2021.
Operating revenue was $1.97 billion, up 56% or 61% in constant currency. Net
profit after tax was $524 million, up 82% over the previous financial year,
or 94% in constant currency.

Managing Director and CEO Lewis Gradon said, "It has been an extraordinary
year and we want to thank healthcare professionals for giving their all to
care for patients, often under the most difficult conditions. We also want to
acknowledge the people of Fisher & Paykel Healthcare for their commitment to
delivering for our customers, and the partners and families of our employees
for the invaluable contribution they have made.

"The unprecedented result was driven by our Hospital product group, which
includes Optiflow and Airvo systems used to deliver nasal high flow therapy.
Sales of our Hospital hardware and consumables have continued to track
COVID-19 hospitalisation surges in countries around the world," said Gradon.

Revenue for the Hospital product group was $1.50 billion, an increase of 87%
over the previous financial year, or 94% in constant currency. Hospital
products made up 76% of the company's operating revenue.

"Although COVID-19 restrictions impacted sleep clinics and reduced OSA
diagnosis rates, revenue for the Homecare product group was $466 million, an
increase of 2% over the previous year, or 4% in constant currency.

"Gross margin decreased by 295 basis points for the year to 63% or a 165
basis points decline in constant currency. This includes increased freight
costs and high airfreight utilisation, which adversely impacted constant
currency gross margin by approximately 230 basis points. Freight and
additional COVID-19 related costs were offset by overhead leverage due to
volume increases outpacing cost growth during the year.

"To recognise the incredible contributions of our people, the Board has
approved a profit-sharing bonus totalling $29 million for the 2021 financial
year to be paid to everyone who has worked with us for a qualifying period.
The company has also committed $20 million to establish the Fisher & Paykel
Healthcare Foundation during the 2021 financial year. The Foundation's
charitable purposes include supporting and funding health research and
programmes that improve access to healthcare, supporting environmental
protection initiatives and promoting awareness of opportunities in science,
technology, engineering and mathematics. The value of our total donations for
the year, including product donations, was $26 million," said Gradon.

Dividend
The company's directors have approved a final dividend of 22.0 cents per
share, an increase of 42% on the final dividend last year. This brings the
total dividend for the year to 38.0 cents per share, an increase of 38%. The
final dividend, carrying full New Zealand imputation credit, will be paid on
7 July 2021 with a record date of 25 June 2021.

No guidance provided for the 2022 financial year
With the ongoing uncertainties of vaccinations, lockdowns, COVID-19 variants,
localised waves and return to stable hospitalisation rates around the world,
the company is not providing guidance for the 2022 financial year.

"We expect our Hospital and Homecare revenue for FY22 to be impacted by the
number of COVID-19 related hospitalisations around the world," said Gradon.

"There is a wide range of scenarios for both the timing of a 'return to
normal' and to what extent a return to normal includes COVID-19 endemic
hospitalisations. It is unclear at this stage when and if other respiratory
hospitalisations and surgical procedures will return to pre-COVID levels, or
whether countries will increase their investment in healthcare
infrastructure."

Observations
Given the wide range of scenarios and uncertainties, the company makes the
following observations
in relation to the 2022 financial year:
o A global vaccine rollout during FY22 is likely to reduce global
hospitalisations requiring respiratory support for COVID-19 compared to FY21.

o Achieving similar Hospital consumable volume in FY22 compared to FY21 with
reduced respiratory hospitalisations and reduced invasive ventilation will
require a change of clinical practice towards utilisation of nasal high flow
therapy for general respiratory support.
o Hospital hardware revenue maintaining a pre COVID-19 level in FY22, after
337% Hospital hardware growth in FY21, requires ongoing intensive care
ventilator sales by global ventilator manufacturers, and/or an ongoing change
in clinical practice to provide nasal high flow therapy for respiratory
support, or localised COVID-19 surges.
o Local COVID-19 related hospitalisation surges in FY21 have tended to result
in increased hardware sales and increased utilisation of existing hardware.
If there are further local hospitalisation surges during FY22, a similar
trend would favourably impact the company's Hospital hardware and consumable
sales and continue to build the installed base.
o OSA mask sales growth is impacted by diagnosis rates and access to
healthcare professionals and providers to demonstrate the company's new mask
ranges.
o Our customers' stocking and de-stocking choices in response to the pandemic
are likely to vary over time.
o In gross margin, freight costs are likely to remain elevated, and air
freight a higher proportion of freight. The company also expects to retain
its COVID-19 safety practices on its manufacturing sites.
o The company will continue advancing manufacturing capacity and facilities
and hold higher levels of inventory to ensure any surge demand can be met.
o The company expects to continue growing its investment in R&D and SG&A as
longer-term projects are accelerated and sales support is provided for the
growing installed base of nasal high flow systems.

In the financial year so far, Hospital revenue continues to remain variable
with higher volumes of Hospital hardware and consumables to locations with
hospitalisation surges and an ongoing shift towards Optiflow nasal high flow
therapy. OSA shows signs of recovery after a slower fourth quarter.
The company also makes the following longer-term observations:
o The pre COVID-19 trend towards more usage of nasal high flow therapy for
general respiratory support is expected to continue, but the company has no
basis for a prediction or forecast of the rate at which this will continue.
The company does not expect all hardware placed in response to COVID-19 to be
immediately transitioned to general respiratory support in an environment
where COVID-19 hospitalisations are reducing.
o Extensive pandemic-related medical practitioner familiarity, and
throughout-hospital acquisition of our hardware devices substantially reduces
the barriers to hospitals utilising nasal high flow therapy for a broader and
more extensive range of patients requiring respiratory support.
o Growth in the output of peer reviewed clinical data and clinical practice
guidelines over time supporting nasal high flow therapy for use in more
general patient populations facilitates a change in clinical practice.
o Growth in Home respiratory support has historically tracked hospital usage
of nasal high flow. This trend was present in FY21 and may have included
treatment of COVID-19 patients.
"We have been amazed by healthcare professionals around the world, who have
responded with such incredible care and courage to the COVID-19 pandemic. We
would also like to express our thanks and admiration for the energy and
dedication shown by our people during this challenging year," Gradon
concluded.

Overview of key results for the 2021 financial year
o 82% growth in net profit after tax to a record $524.2 million.
o 56% growth in operating revenue to $1.97 billion, 61% growth in constant
currency.
o 87% growth in Hospital operating revenue to $1.50 billion, 94% growth in
constant currency.
o 49% constant currency revenue growth for new applications consumables; i.e.
products used in noninvasive ventilation, Optiflow nasal high flow therapy
and surgical applications, accounting for 66% of Hospital consumables
revenue.
o 2% growth in Homecare operating revenue, 4% growth in constant currency.
o Investment in R&D was 7% of revenue, or $136.7 million.
o 42% increase in final dividend to 22.0 cps (2020: 15.5 cps).

About Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare is a leading designer, manufacturer and marketer
of products and systems for use in acute and chronic respiratory care,
surgery and the treatment of obstructive sleep apnea. The company's products
are sold in over 120 countries worldwide. For more information about the
company, visit our website www.fphcare.com.

[Leftfield]

Great result..... well done holders

Overview of key results for the 2021 financial year
• 82% growth in net profit after tax to a record $524.2 million.
• 56% growth in operating revenue to $1.97 billion, 61% growth in constant currency.
• 87% growth in Hospital operating revenue to $1.50 billion, 94% growth in constant currency.
• 49% constant currency revenue growth for new applications consumables; i.e. products used in noninvasive ventilation, Optiflow nasal high flow therapy and surgical applications, accounting for 66% of Hospital consumables revenue.
• 2% growth in Homecare operating revenue, 4% growth in constant currency.
• Investment in R&D was 7% of revenue, or $136.7 million.
• 42% increase in final dividend to 22.0 cps (2020: 15.5 cps).

[alokdhir]

I have done extensive study of my estimations / correlation with Stats Nz data ...But I cant come out with better figures then 1.95 B revenue and 490 M profits for full year ...which is short as per market consensus ....So lets hope I am wrong on 27th May ....:p

Seems my co relation to Stats NZ data works better then the various analysis of brokerages ....

Final figures 1970 Mil Revenues and 524 Mil NPAT !!

April exports up 51% from last April ...latest Stats exports data !!!

[winner69]

Seems my co relation to Stats NZ data works better then the various analysis of brokerages ....

Final figures 1970 Mil Revenues and 524 Mil NPAT !!

April exports up 51% from last April ...latest Stats exports data !!!

Yes mate, you were closer to the profit of 524m than consensus analysts of 544m (4% short)

You need to start 'forecasting' F22 seeing company not going to do it for us

[winner69]

Result and outlook enough to get share price to 40 bucks in next few months?

[Blue Skies]

Wow, FPH just continues its exceptional performance, best share I ever invested in by a long way. Well done holders.

[percy]

Incredible result.
Just thinking how hard it must be to try and forecast future demand,which would mean organising production would would be extremely difficult.
They must have pulled all stops out meeting this year's demand.

[alokdhir]

Result and outlook enough to get share price to 40 bucks in next few months?

Eventually we will cross the hump of $ 38 ...but not soon ...maybe closer to year end .

April revenues estimate of $ 163 Mil ...up 51 % as per latest Stats NZ data

[alokdhir]

Incredible result.
Just thinking how hard it must be to try and forecast future demand,which would mean organising production would would be extremely difficult.
They must have pulled all stops out meeting this year's demand.

Fully agree ...For a manufacturing company to scale up revenue almost double in one year ....amazing . Reason they got company of the year award for 2020

[MarineSalvage]

I'm pretty happy... I think the buyers will stay conservative and not push it up - so I'll continue to accumulate on any weakness

[Rawz]

This is an incredible result. I am glad that there is a $29m profit share bonus for the employees.

Who knows what FY22 will hold.

Now trading on a 35 P/E. Probably about right? Healthcare companies can comfortably trade at up to a 50 P/E ratio. Problem is there is this massive question mark over next years result. Nobody knows what it will be.

Maybe Alokdhir will work it out for us :)

[alokdhir]

I'm pretty happy... I think the buyers will stay conservative and not push it up - so I'll continue to accumulate on any weakness

I agree ...SP may contract more as results short of market consensus .

Overall IMHO FPH now trading at historic low PE levels ...trailing around 34 and forward as per my estimates of 39 ...my FY 22 estimates are 80 cents at the moment . So its a great time to accumulate for future growth .

[alokdhir]

This is an incredible result. I am glad that there is a $29m profit share bonus for the employees.

Who knows what FY22 will hold.

Now trading on a 35 P/E. Probably about right? Healthcare companies can comfortably trade at up to a 50 P/E ratio. Problem is there is this massive question mark over next years result. Nobody knows what it will be.

Maybe Alokdhir will work it out for us :)

Thanks buddy for your confidence ...lol ...I can only estimate at the moment which I have already done ...80 Cents FY 22 EPS ...Just April data out ...but trend of shifting to FPH products in hospital respiratory care is now getting well entrenched . So safe to assume that 80 Cents can be achieved in FY 22

Here like to point out that FPH closest peer company RMD is trading at PE of 62 at the moment ...forward 52

[bull....]

wow :scared: obviously market expected better

[tango]

Yep! FPH are being punished for a brilliant result and for not sticking their necks out and providing a forecast.

I own RMD and I agree that the comparative forward PE makes FPH look cheap. FPH will continue to grow and they have a foothold in some new markets now having responded so brilliantly with ramped up production and delivery to new and existing markets.

[MarineSalvage]

just like Apple doing an incredible quarter then punished... some would argue its too expensive... but we would all agree the mid to long term they are a real buy
Yep! FPH are being punished for a brilliant result and for not sticking their necks out and providing a forecast.

I own RMD and I agree that the comparative forward PE makes FPH look cheap. FPH will continue to grow and they have a foothold in some new markets now having responded so brilliantly with ramped up production and delivery to new and existing markets.

[peat]

Thanks buddy for your confidence ...lol ...I can only estimate at the moment which I have already done ...80 Cents FY 22 EPS ...Just April data out ...but trend of shifting to FPH products in hospital respiratory care is now getting well entrenched . So safe to assume that 80 Cents can be achieved in FY 22

Here like to point out that FPH closest peer company RMD is trading at PE of 62 at the moment ...forward 52

Given they earned 91.1 cps for 2021 just announced are you predicting they will go backwards
Using that figure current PE is 32 @$29.15 which is still high and so is dependent on future growth. But I agree cf with Resmed is valid.

[ratkin]

This is the trouble with massive PEs the stock has gone nowhere since covid started despite massive profit rises. Still on a big PE and covid on the wane. Could also see increased competition in the respiratory space

[flyinglizard]

market cap, PB and Price to sales ratios, not looking cheap

[sb9]

Market priced in huge numbers and growth, question is whether that can be repeated in future with FPH main serving markets out of Covid situation. And add in expected currency headwinds as per Orr's comments y'day.

[Rawz]

market cap, PB and Price to sales ratios, not looking cheap

Compared to what though? Not cheap compared to Metro Glass. Cheap compared to Tesla.

I bought some more at $29. I think if I hold them for 10 years I will likely triple my money.

[trader_jackson]

Not looking cheap, then again never really has (in the past several years at least)... no guidance for FY22 would have really freaked Mr Market out... Mr Market probably thinking that there would be a plunge, perhaps (if not probably) a big plunge, in revenue and NPAT... which would mean FPH goes from being a very expensive stock to an incredibly expensive stock... no debate it was a very sold result for FY21, but FY21 is in the past now and Mr Market is forward looking.

[macduffy]

Great result! I'll add a few when the price settles.

:)

[flyinglizard]

Compared to what though? Not cheap compared to Metro Glass. Cheap compared to Tesla.

I bought some more at $29. I think if I hold them for 10 years I will likely triple my money.

compared with MSCI global health care index average PE, PB ratios.

https://www.msci.com/documents/10199/c41a73d1-9037-4dbd-a175-703d3bb77ae6

[bull....]

the RBNZ said yesterday rate increases next year so currency people will factor in a stronger dollar going forward , also once covid issues resolve in time less demand ?

carring on before site dropped

but saying that i brought some for a bounce ... seems a bit harsh 10% drop

[Sideshow Bob]

The market has always priced FPH highly, who have a history of largely delivering with growth. Bit like MFT, EBO, RYM (in the past) never looked like value but delivered to justify their price.

Now with Covid, a large tail winds, and despite a huge increase in profit, the love affair seems over??? Or has it just cooled a bit?

[Sideshow Bob]

The market has always priced FPH highly, who have a history of largely delivering with growth. Bit like MFT, EBO, RYM (in the past) never looked like value but delivered to justify their price.

Now with Covid, a large tail winds, and despite a huge increase in profit, the love affair seems over??? Or has it just cooled a bit?

[macduffy]

Great result! I'll add a few when the price settles.

:)

Done - at $28.55.

[allfromacell]

I've always wanted to get on the register for FPH but the SP has always seemed too expensive, finally an opportunity presents itself and i'm onboard :). These are getting securely locked in the bottom-draw for the next decade or two.

[alokdhir]

Me also ended up adding a few around $ 28 ...cant go wrong at these levels ...

Tremendous overreaction as many short term and brokerage lead players freeing their money for better / faster opportunities

Should come back over $ 30 soon IMHO ...still will remain in same trading range for rest of the year I suppose or till more clarity on FY 22 estimates

[winner69]

Analyst forecasts had FPH F22 profits declining by 24% (from F21)

Just imagine if profits grew in F22 ... even modestly

Share price would be $60 this time next year if this happened ...beating expectations big time

[alokdhir]

Analyst forecasts had FPH F22 profits declining by 24% (from F21)

Just imagine if profits grew in F22 ... even modestly

Share price would be $60 this time next year if this happened ...beating expectations big time

We all live for such days buddy ...4/10 chance of that happening ...depending upon covid position ....smaller downside then market present estimates of 0.70 cents has 8/10 chance ...Risk reward favours FPH at these prices with 2-3 years horizon ...IMHO

[bull....]

Analyst forecasts had FPH F22 profits declining by 24% (from F21)

Just imagine if profits grew in F22 ... even modestly

Share price would be $60 this time next year if this happened ...beating expectations big time

uncertainty driving price today , uncertainty around revenue , freight issues on margins , covid outlook etc , thats why i think its a short term over reaction and if your right winner bargain of the century if it all holds up. but guess we wont know till hind sight. thats the punt

[tango]

Not looking cheap, then again never really has (in the past several years at least)... no guidance for FY22 would have really freaked Mr Market out... Mr Market probably thinking that there would be a plunge, perhaps (if not probably) a big plunge, in revenue and NPAT... which would mean FPH goes from being a very expensive stock to an incredibly expensive stock... no debate it was a very sold result for FY21, but FY21 is in the past now and Mr Market is forward looking.

Yes! Mr Market likes some certainty. No guidance creates too much risk for Mr Market
Surely FPH did a share a bullish (COVID) scenario, business as normal scenario and things taking a while to recover scenario. They must have something they can share with the market

[kiora]

There is no other company in NZ that I know that invests so much in R & D
" Investment in R&D was 7% of revenue, or $136.7 million"

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1023390/new-zealand-research-development-expenses-fisher-paykel/

This will help drive future earnings & creates a large MOAT

[alokdhir]

uncertainty driving price today , uncertainty around revenue , freight issues on margins , covid outlook etc , thats why i think its a short term over reaction and if your right winner bargain of the century if it all holds up. but guess we wont know till hind sight. thats the punt

Your estimate of bounce till where ? For short term traders ...please let them know where u think they should get out ....I understand u master of trading and levels .

[bull....]

Your estimate of bounce till where ? For short term traders ...please let them know where u think they should get out ....I understand u master of trading and levels .

if i did that everyone would front run me lol , but i note most times in past fph has bounced back for day or 2 from big dip

[Beagle]

12550
Unless I am mistaken that's a fairly clear head and shoulders pattern. GLTAH.

[Leftfield]

Me also ended up adding a few around $ 28 ...cant go wrong at these levels ...

Tremendous overreaction as many short term and brokerage lead players freeing their money for better / faster opportunities

Should come back over $ 30 soon IMHO ...still will remain in same trading range for rest of the year I suppose or till more clarity on FY 22 estimates


Congrat's on your forecast expertise. Well done.

I was also of the thinking that this morn's reaction was overdone and added more to my collection around $28. Feeling better this afternoon.

Well done holders.... onwards and upwards.

[Bobdn]

There is no other company in NZ that I know that invests so much in R & D
" Investment in R&D was 7% of revenue, or $136.7 million"

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1023390/new-zealand-research-development-expenses-fisher-paykel/

This will help drive future earnings & creates a large MOAT

How is there a moat? There are other companies around the world producing this stuff.

[alokdhir]

if i did that everyone would front run me lol , but i note most times in past fph has bounced back for day or 2 from big dip

So maybe till $ 31 or little shorter !!

[alokdhir]

12550
Unless I am mistaken that's a fairly clear head and shoulders pattern. GLTAH.

So whats your prognosis from TA side ??

[winner69]

How to piss broker analysts off in one easy lesson (as reported by Business Desk) -

At one point an analyst asked if Gradon could provide guidance for the June quarter and whether it would be up, down or sideways.

"I think it will be up, down or sideways, it will be one of those three," Gradon said, although he went on to say that the first quarter of the current year could be similar to the final quarter of the 2021 financial year.

[winner69]

Same article guru Mark from Craig’s said "There was a drop-off in the run rate (hospital sales). . I think that's the crux of it," said Mark Lister, head of wealth research at Craigs Investment Partners.

Talk of soft patch in sales. Inventory, declining margins and higher expenses in F22 not good .............. echos of A2

[Beagle]

So whats your prognosis from TA side ??

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/head-shoulders.asp

[alokdhir]

Same article guru Mark from Craig’s said "There was a drop-off in the run rate (hospital sales). . I think that's the crux of it," said Mark Lister, head of wealth research at Craigs Investment Partners.

Talk of soft patch in sales. Inventory, declining margins and higher expenses in F22 not good .............. echos of A2

ATM biggest trouble was dependence on a single unreliable market ...China ...also being served majorly thru an equally unreliable daigou route ...no one knew how dependent they were on this channel alone ...not only for delivery but for publicity also .

Doesn't look like we have these problems here .

[bull....]

So maybe till $ 31 or little shorter !!

like i said pattern has been a bounce from big drop most times includes from todays low. pick your profit level. i never try to be greedy if that helps on bounce trades. no pattern always works of course

[alokdhir]

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/head-shoulders.asp

So u saying its trend reversal pattern ?? As per that FPH now in downtrend if it breaks neckline ...is $ 27 ??

[winner69]

Maybe the market didn’t like the $29m staff bonus bit?

That’s about what they missed cOnsensus forecast by

Mind you I’m glad the staff got a decent bonus .....should have been more

[alokdhir]

like i said pattern has been a bounce from big drop most times includes from todays low. pick your profit level. i never try to be greedy if that helps on bounce trades. no pattern always works of course

Thanks !! $ 33 to $ 28 = $ 5 ...50% bounce till $ 30.50 !! How is that ?? seems ok to u ??

[bull....]

Thanks !! $ 33 to $ 28 = $ 5 ...50% bounce till $ 30.50 !! How is that ?? seems ok to u ??

are you playing the drop below the lower daily bollinger today then at 30.50 it would be back just inside it tomorrow on the daily? and correct the rsi oversold levels on the intra-days at the same time

[alokdhir]

are you playing the drop below the lower daily bollinger today then at 30.50 it would be back just inside it tomorrow on the daily? and correct the rsi oversold levels on the intra-days at the same time

Thats what I meant ...back in the band ...but most times it goes till mid point ...so can go above that too ...but u said dont be greedy ..lol

[Beagle]

So u saying its trend reversal pattern ?? As per that FPH now in downtrend if it breaks neckline ...is $ 27 ??

To me it appears to have quite clearly broken down below the right shoulder and is headed lower. Left shoulder was at ~ $33.50 in early April, right shoulder was broken just recently.
Quite apart from the H&S pattern which in itself is a clear TA warning, there's a clear breakdown through the 100 day MA at $32.50 recently and its now broken down though the 200day MA which I understand is widely used by technicians as absolute confirmation of a trend change.
My assessment is the FPH has enjoyed a VERY strong run on the back of Covid and its starting to break down with uncertain forward fundamentals and very concerning looking technical's.
Others will have a different view and some may even be emotionally wed to it because of stellar past returns and that's fine and good luck to them.
Disc: No financial interest in FPH, either long or short.

[alokdhir]

To me it appears to have quite clearly broken down below the right shoulder and is headed lower. Left shoulder was at ~ $33.50 in early April, right shoulder was broken just recently.
Quite apart from the H&S pattern which in itself is a clear TA warning, there's a clear breakdown through the 100 day MA at $32.50 recently and its now broken down though the 200day MA which I understand is widely used by technicians as absolute confirmation of a trend change.
My assessment is the FPH has enjoyed a VERY strong run on the back of Covid and its starting to break down with uncertain forward fundamentals and very concerning looking technical's.
Others will have a different view and some may even be emotionally wed to it because of stellar past returns and that's fine and good luck to them.

Thanks for your explanation buddy ...

[bull....]

Thats what I meant ...back in the band ...but most times it goes till mid point ...so can go above that too ...but u said dont be greedy ..lol


being to greedy on these trades caught me out plenty of times.
anyway ive eaten thru half pack of superwines watching the slow grind back to 30.50 lol.
on a larger time frame i have a big trading range between 36.50 to 28 so buying around 28 had this to support your decision as well

[alokdhir]

being to greedy on these trades caught me out plenty of times.
anyway ive eaten thru half pack of superwines watching the slow grind back to 30.50 lol.
on a larger time frame i have a big trading range between 36.50 to 28 so buying around 28 had this to support your decision as well

Agree with u fully ...it will remain in this range all this year ...or at least till Nov half yearly ...

[Beagle]

Thanks for your explanation buddy ...

You're welcome mate. You can see the head and shoulders pattern really clearly in the NBR chart image to the right of this article here https://www.nbr.co.nz/story/analysts-fph-s-lack-clear-guidance-likely-weigh-stock

[winner69]

Hey alokdhir

Do your numbers give any idea what Q1 sales will be like. If it’s any help Gradon says ‘ the first quarter of the current year could be similar to the final quarter of the 2021 financial year.“

Was the final quarter 2021 better than the first quarter 2021 ...ie 2022 of to a good start

He’s pissed many off by no even giving a hint as to what 2022 is going to be like. This implies he is comfortable with analyst forecasts of a 25% decline in earnings. There is disclosure ‘issues’ if company and market expectations are miles apart.

A 2022 eps of 70 cents not much for a 30 buck share

[Beagle]

Hey Winner, bit of commentary in here about final quarter FY21 sales and how they were below market expectations https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976518695/investors-knock-1b-off-f-p-healthcare-valuation.html?utm_source=GR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=GoodReturns+Market+Report+for+27+May+ 2021
Hope that helps.

[KJMLimited]

Still a great business. I first bought it well below $5 years ago and the high NZD was a barrier. Everyone thought it was over priced but time went by and it became less affected by the high NZD. Then the NZD went into decline and sleep apnea sales took off. Share price takes off too. It is over priced short term but being a great business its time will come again. Absolutely no doubt.

[alokdhir]

Hey alokdhir

Do your numbers give any idea what Q1 sales will be like. If it’s any help Gradon says ‘ the first quarter of the current year could be similar to the final quarter of the 2021 financial year.“

Was the final quarter 2021 better than the first quarter 2021 ...ie 2022 of to a good start

I have already written about April sales from latest Stat NZ data ...April revenue up 51% PCP ...it translates to $ 163 mil revenue ...thats all data I have at the moment .

Last qtr of FY 21 was almost same as first qtr of FY 21 ....but April 21 data seems better then Jan, Feb or March ... So from April data we can see FY 22 off to good start with 51% increase in April 21 PCP basis ...this translates to 1.96B revenue ...163 mil per month basis

just a month to look at ....so not much to go on . U need to take a call on Covid situation long term as their revenues are directly related to covid hospitalisations

He has also mentioned Covid endemic hospitalisations ...after pandemic over ...hinting at long term benefit here . Also mentioned home care ventilation boosts tracking covid hospitalisations ....also hinting at new area of non hospital revenues then pre covid which was basically sleep clinics related home care products

Overall pre covid they were growing at 10% revenue and 15-18% NPAT ...still it was boosting SP by 20-30 % PA ...so now they grew 60% and 80% NPAT which is basically 4 years of organic growth at pre covid rates but SP now is just 35% over pre covid levels . Thats PE contraction as market not sure about immediate future . I still think keeping in view the quality of the company and its niche area ...market will eventually bring it to forward PE of 50 as before . Let the dust settle

Same reaction was seen on the results day of its peer company RMD listed on NYSE ...it went down 13% ...then slowly its back !!

FPH quality of management and products are world class ...they will catch up with old trend in next 1-2 years max .

[alokdhir]

Hey Winner, bit of commentary in here about final quarter FY21 sales and how they were below market expectations https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976518695/investors-knock-1b-off-f-p-healthcare-valuation.html?utm_source=GR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=GoodReturns+Market+Report+for+27+May+ 2021
Hope that helps.

Last qtr of FY 21 was the weakest of the year . After 3rd qtr which was the strongest of the year ... Q4 was down 35% from Q3 ....But Q3 was just blowout all way over all other quarters

[alokdhir]

Next week in 3 web based investor days FPH will enlighten the investors and analysts about its bright future and progress made during pandemic opportunities .

Hopefully market will like what they want to show !!

IMHO FY 22 eps will most likely end up between 0.70 to 0.80 cents ...provided nothing big changes on Covid front ...this qtr is panning out to be like 1st qtr or 4th qtr ( both were almost same ) of FY 21 ....

[winner69]

Last qtr of FY 21 was the weakest of the year . After 3rd qtr which was the strongest of the year ... Q4 was down 35% from Q3 ....But Q3 was just blowout all way over all other quarters

If you play around with FPH sales numbers over the year and what they said in updates I reckon Q421 sales were about 390m. Gardon sort of said Q122 sales would be in line with this so maybe 400m - this I reckon is 15% down on H121. Bit spooky that when analysts are expecting 15% decline for full year

Be interesting to see what eventuates

[winner69]

Share price on fire today - that's good

[MarineSalvage]

I guess we'll see what the Aussies do soon...
Share price on fire today - that's good

[alokdhir]

If you play around with FPH sales numbers over the year and what they said in updates I reckon Q421 sales were about 390m. Gardon sort of said Q122 sales would be in line with this so maybe 400m - this I reckon is 15% down on H121. Bit spooky that when analysts are expecting 15% decline for full year

Be interesting to see what eventuates

As company will not provide guidance and uncertainty around covid which effects its revenues in big way ....FPH will remain volatile but rangebound ....like Bull said ...36.50 to 27.50 . Company should have agreed to provide quarterly trading updates ( I think they may do that ) So they may give first announcement about how FY 22 panning out by July last week . Till then it will remain here only ...28-32

[dobby41]

I guess we'll see what the Aussies do soon...

They don't seem so happy.

[peat]

Craigs

March quarter surprisingly soft
With fwd PE still 43x FY22e we maintain Neutral with revised $33.89 TP

[bull....]

Craigs

March quarter surprisingly soft
With fwd PE still 43x FY22e we maintain Neutral with revised $33.89 TP

so much uncertainty will hamper the price .... i sold out yesterday near close asx

[peat]

whats scary to me is how far out the Craigs analysis goes without any significant increase in yield or reduction in multiple.

in three years time you'll still be getting less than 2% return and on a PE of over 40.

[alokdhir]

After analysing revenue trend data from Jan 2021 onwards ...estimated following numbers ....Jan = $ 125 M ( + 44% PCP ) Feb = $ 120 M ( + 15 ) March = $ 155 M ( + 6 ) April = $ 165 ( + 51 )

Also seeing the infections data of top 10 most vaccinated countries ....Covid is still managing to put people in hospitals ...especially UAE and Chile ( Top vaccinated)

So its too early to write off Covid effect or boost to FPH ...IMHO

Almost all analysts have been quick to downgrade it to Hold with consensus target of $ 32.50 ( Original Forbar's )

That makes it the dark horse now ...if they get a quarter like 3rd qtr of FY 21 then all will be jumping to upgrade . Think 3rd qtr ....UK and USA stocked big time !!

Longterm holders need hold ...things can change for better suddenly too ...uncertainty of Covid cuts both ways .

Underperform is the current trend surely

[Panda-NZ-]

Aging population(s) will continue to drive some demand for their products.

Particularly in America where people are living longer but certaintely not healthier.

[LEMON]

Can't see Covid going anywhere any time soon, the majority of the world is only now starting to experience its highest cases.
Heavily vaccinated countries have a huge number of waiting patients, many believe this will be the new crisis as large numbers of ill and poorly people start going back to their GP and hospitals.
New rare diseases have been found showing up in recovered patients affecting the lungs, lots of long term issues needed assistants from respiratory devices.

Lots of countries will start to restock and store medical equipment?

I'm new to this game but look what happened with ATM and their guidance, how many times did they have to change to a downgrade, all due to uncertainty with covid, trade and shipments, sure some other factors also, maybe someone could tell me FPH may be trying to play it safe in uncertain times? It seems people believe the world has recovered or is recovering but it's still as much a disaster as it was when all of this kicked off

[Bjauck]

Aging population(s) will continue to drive some demand for their products.

Particularly in America where people are living longer but certaintely not healthier. Have you got any references to back that? What I have seen is that the USA is quite low down in the list of life expectancy for developed countries. Perhaps it is because there is a vastly different outcome for Americans depending on wealth - with wealthier Americans living longer, healthier and with access to cutting edge healthcare.

List of countries by life expectancy
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_life_expectancy#List_by_the_W orld_Health_Organization_(2019)

[Panda-NZ-]

https://www.prb.org/resources/americans-living-longer-not-necessarily-healthier-lives/

Census results:
https://www.courthousenews.com/census-american-population-is-living-longer/

[Bjauck]

https://www.prb.org/resources/americans-living-longer-not-necessarily-healthier-lives/

Census results:
https://www.courthousenews.com/census-american-population-is-living-longer/

Interesting links. With advancing health treatments, the health conditions that people face has changed over time. This is an issue facing other countries in addition to the USA. Unequal access to health services has an effect too.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/11/01/people-may-living-longer-face-13-years-living-poor-health/

[peat]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/FPH/373173/347408.pdf
todays presentation extremely medically oriented despite being for investors and analysts....
of course its their specialty but not for me to read.

however they do map out their short medium and long term objectives though its all a bit unconvincing.
that 12% revenue growth projection seems a bit achievable.

[Louloubell]

I know nothing other than that management of FPH are top notch and tend to under promise and over deliver

[kiora]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/FPH/373173/347408.pdf
todays presentation extremely medically oriented despite being for investors and analysts....
of course its their specialty but not for me to read.

however they do map out their short medium and long term objectives though its all a bit unconvincing.
that 12% revenue growth projection seems a bit achievable.

12% growth projection is far higher than many analysts have arrived at. Analysts are projecting a drop off after covid.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/FISHER-PAYKEL-HEALTHCAR-6492630/financials/
I am reasonably confident of which ones have a better understanding of the business

[LEMON]

12% growth projection is far higher than many analysts have arrived at. Analysts are projecting a drop off after covid.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/FISHER-PAYKEL-HEALTHCAR-6492630/financials/
I am reasonably confident of which ones have a better understanding of the business

What's this after Covid though?
Covid is still here and spreading.

[Zaphod]

What's this after Covid though?
Covid is still here and spreading.

In a post-vaccinated world, COVID-19 may well continue to spread, but overall the physiological impact will be much less than we're seeing today. The unvaccinated, the long-haul sufferers and other similar groups will still require the types of products that FPH produce, but demand shouldn't continue to grow at the same rate is has in the past.

[kiora]

For those that don't wish to read through entire presentations
FPH have short(Hospital respiratory support), medium(Home respiratory support) and long term (Surgical technologies) growth covered
pg 5-7 investor series
https://www.fphcare.com/nz/our-company/investor/reports/

[alokdhir]

Future is bright for FPH ...but short term uncertainty will make the stock underperform . Medium to long term exceptionally positive .

From 10% revenue growth target has been upgraded to 12 % ...thats how positive management is feeling after this covid exposure on the world stage .

I am sure many smarter analysts will also take note of brighter future ahead ...consensus 0.62 cents eps is too pessimistic IMHO ...more like between 0.70-0.80 range depending upon how covid behaves ahead . So Craigs target of around $ 34 seems very realistic with upside surprise possibly .

FPH SP needs time to settle down ....last August it was $ 38 in expectations of these results which just revealed ....now its $ 29 in anticipation of sales falling fully !

In the bigger scenario current calendar is small up or down movement only ...30- 35 . Look for it in calendar 22 and 23 .

[Panda-NZ-]

Future is bright for FPH ...but short term uncertainty will make the stock underperform . Medium to long term exceptionally positive .

From 10% revenue growth target has been upgraded to 12 % ...thats how positive management is feeling after this covid exposure on the world stage .

I am sure many smarter analysts will also take note of brighter future ahead ...consensus 0.62 cents eps is too pessimistic IMHO ...more like between 0.70-0.80 range depending upon how covid behaves ahead . So Craigs target of around $ 34 seems very realistic with upside surprise possibly .

FPH SP needs time to settle down ....last August it was $ 38 in expectations of these results which just revealed ....now its $ 29 in anticipation of sales falling fully !

In the bigger scenario current calendar is small up or down movement only ...30- 35 . Look for it in calendar 22 and 23 .


Abbott techology down 10% today.. The market tends to have a rather low attention span.

Tests are no lonnger needed when corona is not around who knew.
Though they too have a long history of growing rev/earnings.

[Panda-NZ-]

Aging population(s) will continue to drive some demand for their products.


case in point:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/entertainment/simon-cowell-sparks-health-fears-after-portable-breathing-device-photos/RU2KY3XYBVMN35N7XEQ3EIMRNU/

Respiratory device spotted with simon cowell.

[winner69]

Good to see Michael Daniell get knighted

[Old mate]

Kiwi ventilator manufacturer F&P Healthcare led the market higher, leaping 5.6% to $30.75, with investors trading almost $30 million worth of stock.

Hamilton Hindin Greene investment adviser, Grant Davies said the move was likely driven by the news that Royal Phillips – better known just as Phillips – had recalled 4 million to 5m ventilators and sleep apnoea devices.

The Dutch company found possible health risks with a polyester-based foam used for sound absorption in the products. This sent its share price tumbling more than 4% and shaved a billion dollars off its market capitalisation.

Some of this money seemed to find its way to competitor firms, with healthcare company ResMed also jumping 6% on the ASX today.
https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976518792/f-p-healthcare-shares-surge-as-competitor-recalls-dangerous-products.html

[alokdhir]

With new developments about big product recall by number 2 sleep apnea device maker Philips thus taking them out of the market for next 18 months as indicated by their own spokesperson ...also said will lead to shortage of devices in the short term . This gives number 3 manufacturer FPH a great chance to boost its market share in Homecare segment . Its very possible they maybe able to win extra $ 200 million sales in this segment which will help cover majority of the hospital division shortfall for the current year IMHO ...Makes holding FPH even more interesting as knowing the management ...they will surely try to cash on this opportunity fully ..their weaker segment Home Care . RMD has 43% market share Philips 31% and FPH 12% ...with Philips out for medium term plus the damage this recall will do to their reputation ....hopefully FPH should capitalise big .

[Panda-NZ-]

Resmed share price shot up on the news... sign of things to come for FPH?

[Panda-NZ-]

Resmed up 10% during last 5 days, 23% for the month.

[kiwiyankee]

here we go again!

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-coronavirus-uk-cases-surge-as-delta-variant-spreads/VGU5C74PXQPQRCLN2GGG6FE3BQ/

[Leftfield]

Nice SP action recently.....

Onwards and upwards.

[alokdhir]

May exports data out today . Estimated revenue for FPH comes to $ 179 mil UP 13% PCP

Now we have 2 months for FY 22 which seems to be holding up better then expected ...163 , 179 mil for April and May revenues

[BlackPeter]

May exports data out today . Estimated revenue for FPH comes to $ 179 mil UP 13% PCP

Now we have 2 months for FY 22 which seems to be holding up better then expected ...163 , 179 mil for April and May revenues

Good.

However - it still might be a bit early to praise the year after the first two months of revenue. Whatever is happening currently in the world - linear extrapolation might not be the best method to forecast the future :):

Discl: holding a wee parcel and don't mind to buy more if the price is right.

[winner69]

Good.

However - it still might be a bit early to praise the year after the first two months of revenue. Whatever is happening currently in the world - linear extrapolation might not be the best method to forecast the future :):

Discl: holding a wee parcel and don't mind to buy more if the price is right.

Maybe he was not thinking linear extrapolation.......and hinting full year could be +80%

Maybe too early to make that call as well

[BlackPeter]

Maybe he was not thinking linear extrapolation.......and hinting full year could be +80%

Maybe too early to make that call as well

I wonder whether they wanted to give us a hint at the AGM when they said that they are not able to provide a forecast ...

[Rawz]

I wonder whether they wanted to give us a hint at the AGM when they said that they are not able to provide a forecast ...

Fairly hard to provide a forecast with all these covid variants, what is it now, delta +? No doubt more to come and more infections?

Also looking to add more, around $29 mark. If it ever drops down there again.

[kiwiyankee]

From FN Arena: https://www.fnarena.com/index.php/2021/06/28/australian-broker-call-extra-edition-jun-28-2021/#FPH

FPH FISHER & PAYKEL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $29.31
Goldman Sachs rates ((FPH)) as Buy (1) –
Beyond some near-term dynamics, including the decline in hospitalisations and elevated air freight costs, Goldman Sachs discerns nothing changes the broker's positive mid/long-term view on Fisher & Paykel Healthcare.
Overall, Goldman Sachs updates sales, earnings, and earnings per share forecasts by an average of -8%, -18%, and -18% through FY22-23 as the broker re-bases consumables forecasts to reflect a lower exit-rate and factor in an elevated level of air freight costs.
The broker's FY22-25 earnings forecasts are 4-12% above their pre-pandemic levels.
Although not cheap in absolute terms, Goldman Sachs sees a clear double-digit growth trajectory plus, on a growth-adjusted basis, more valuation support than for other manufacturers.
Buy rating is maintained. Target price is lowered to $33.00 to reflect earnings revisions.
This report was produced on May 27, 2021.
Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $29.31 Difference: $3.69
If FPH meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $30.00, suggesting upside of 2.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY22:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 37.23 cents and EPS of 53.05 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 55.25.
How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 47.2.
Forecast for FY23:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 43.75 cents and EPS of 62.36 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 47.00.
How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.8, implying annual growth of 1.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 46.7.
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Jarden rates ((FPH)) as Overweight (2) –
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare has reported a strong FY21 result, with net profit up 82% to NZ$524m, but soft relative to high market expectations, according to Jarden.
The step change in profitability was underpinned by unprecedented covid demand for its hospital division, with the company selling around 6x normal hardware, and circa 2x consumables, while treating 20m patients.
No earnings guidance was provided for FY22, but the company reiterated its NZ$20bn total addressable market estimate. The company also reaffirmed plans to keep advancing manufacturing capacity and hold higher levels of inventory to ensure any surge in demand can be met.
The broker believes covid has materially strengthened the company's growth opportunity, particularly with respect to high nasal flow therapy both with the Hospital and Home setting.
Jarden has amended FY22-24 net profit estimates by -4%, -4%, and 1% but notes the inherent difficulty calibrating what a normalisation profile looks like for the company.
Overweight recommendation maintained, and target price is lowered to NZ$34.00 from NZ$36.10 to reflect Jarden's near-term downgraded forecasts.
The report was issued May 27, 2021.
Current Price is $29.31. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $30.00, suggesting upside of 2.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY22:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 42.54 cents and EPS of 65.43 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 44.79.
How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 47.2.
Forecast for FY23:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 48.59 cents and EPS of 74.65 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.27.
How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.8, implying annual growth of 1.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 46.7.
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Wilsons rates ((FPH)) as Overweight (1) –
While short term earnings visibility remains tough in the absence of quantitative guidance, Wilsons' positive view on Fisher & Paykel Healthcare is based on the broker's analysis of the outlook for the company's high-flow nasal cannula device.
The company's second half result featured a beat on hardware sales, and this momentum will likely continue in emerging markets where covid admissions remain high, the broker suggests.
Consumables sales missed the broker's forecasts but it is impossible to determine whether this reflects a lag in installed base ‘pull-through’ or suboptimal utilisation of units placed during the pandemic, the broker notes.
Overweight retained, target falls to $35.00 from $37.50.
Report first published May 28, 2021.
Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $29.31 Difference: $5.69
If FPH meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $30.00, suggesting upside of 2.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY22:
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 37.23 cents and EPS of 64.78 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 45.25.
How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 47.2.
Forecast for FY23:
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 38.16 cents and EPS of 66.27 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 44.23.
How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.8, implying annual growth of 1.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 46.7.
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

[Rawz]

Thanks for posting Kiwiyankee.

"clear double-digit growth trajectory"
"covid has materially strengthened the company's growth opportunity, particularly with respect to high nasal flow therapy both with the Hospital and Home setting."

Brokers all got their estimates wrong. I won't bother. Happy to keep buying on any share price weakness, around $29 seems to be working. Has popped down there a few times then bounced back to the low $30's.

Hold for long long term. Can't go wrong? Don't think ill regret holding these come 2030.. 2040

[alokdhir]

With more and more countries realising that Covid is here to stay like Australia ....Future for FPH becomes brighter then what analysts at present forecasting ....

IMHO FPH will be main driver of our market ahead ...even revenue data indicators are pointing towards much better outcome for full year then presently discounted by market . Now it will have some boost from home care side business also due to Philips's woes .

Its very feasible that FPH exceeds last years revenue rather then 30% drop market anticipating at the moment . Its buy the dips now strategy

[Greekwatchdog]

Covid will always be here, we have just got to live with it. ie like the flu and other viruses. Vaccines are here like the flu jab and hospitals have their tools to help patients. There will always be demand for FPH product, just to what degree that influences their product sales

[Leftfield]

Its very feasible that FPH exceeds last years revenue rather then 30% drop market anticipating at the moment . Its buy the dips now strategy

I'm with you on that. Market notched the SP back on exchange rate fears this week, but only a matter of time for this one to shine.

[Biscuit]

Covid will always be here, we have just got to live with it. ie like the flu and other viruses. Vaccines are here like the flu jab and hospitals have their tools to help patients. There will always be demand for FPH product, just to what degree that influences their product sales

Sure covid may always "be here" like the flu, that does not equate to continued demand for FPH product as they do not sell vaccines.

[Greekwatchdog]

Didnt say they did, but they do sell plenty of items that hospitals world wide have used effectively to fight Covid and other health issues.

[Biscuit]

Didnt say they did, but they do sell plenty of items that hospitals world wide have used effectively to fight Covid and other health issues.

Yes, but that was due to there being no vaccine. Now there is a vaccine, rich countries that can afford FPH products will eventually be fully vaccinated to the point they do not have significant covid hospitalization. Not that I think FPH hasn't got a great future, I'm holding and currently adding. They are a great company.

[Leftfield]

Sure covid may always "be here" like the flu, that does not equate to continued demand for FPH products .....

Spent a quiet Sunday reading NBR's Shoeshine Feb column on NBR. Seems that apart from For/Bar there are many who disagree that the end of Covid will see a drop in demand for FPH's products.

- FPH have a track record of under-promising and over-delivering
- FPH would not have invested so much $mill in new plant expansion if they were bearish
- FPH's key products in breathing/ventilation assistance have proven their worth in Covid times and their usefulness has now expanded into other areas where FPH is now part of 'normal operating procedures' for treatment of emphysema, other respiratory issues and even 'long covid' etc etc.

Interesting times ahead for holders IMHO.

[alokdhir]

Spent a quiet Sunday reading NBR's Shoeshine Feb column on NBR. Seems that apart from For/Bar there are many who disagree that the end of Covid will see a drop in demand for FPH's products.

- FPH have a track record of under-promising and over-delivering
- FPH would not have invested so much $mill in new plant expansion if they were bearish
- FPH's key products in breathing/ventilation assistance have proven their worth in Covid times and their usefulness has now expanded into other areas where FPH is now part of 'normal operating procedures' for treatment of emphysema, other respiratory issues and even 'long covid' etc etc.

Interesting times ahead for holders IMHO.

Fully agree and also no need to try to convert non believers ...Covid boost or covid income is just a bonus for FPH . Covid also gave FPH enormous positive publicity and goodwill of so many doctors and hospital purchasers that they will thank covid for years to come .

Even in 2019 they were planning to double their production of hospital equipment by 2023 . They had so much confidence in their therapies and devices

Holding FPH for next 3-5 years is going to be best and safest call IMHO .

[Rawz]

Got my buy order in at $29 just in case it falls back there for a bit.

Agree next 3, 5, 10… yrs it’s a compelling hold

[Leftfield]

Covid here for the long term..... even for 'our lifetime'.... according to this article (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/125651153/covid19-businesses-should-plan-for-borders-being-closed-in-two-or-three-years-time-rob-fyfe-says) .

[winner69]

There was this guy on the radio last night saying his business has seen activity fall away quite a lot over the last month which surprised him a bit because over the last year he had been flat out. Said he used to get three to four big orders a month but now it’s down to one if he’s lucky …….he said he makes components for Fisher and Paykel.



I assumed he was talking about FPH because he added in some respects that’s good because it means less people are dying

[alokdhir]

There was this guy on the radio last night saying his business has seen activity fall away quite a lot over the last month which surprised him a bit because over the last year he had been flat out. Said he used to get three to four big orders a month but now it’s down to one if he’s lucky …….he said he makes components for Fisher and Paykel.

Was just answering the question how’s biz going

Maybe they found a better source ...lol

At present data not showing any big drop in FPH revenues ...April and May data in ....

[alokdhir]

There was this guy on the radio last night saying his business has seen activity fall away quite a lot over the last month which surprised him a bit because over the last year he had been flat out. Said he used to get three to four big orders a month but now it’s down to one if he’s lucky …….he said he makes components for Fisher and Paykel.

Was just answering the question how’s biz going

Maybe they found a better source ...lol

At present data not showing any big drop in FPH revenues ...April and May data in ....

Hopefully they will say something about 1st qtr performance at 18th Aug ASM

[Blue Skies]

There was this guy on the radio last night saying his business has seen activity fall away quite a lot over the last month which surprised him a bit because over the last year he had been flat out. Said he used to get three to four big orders a month but now it’s down to one if he’s lucky …….he said he makes components for Fisher and Paykel.

Was just answering the question how’s biz going

Did they ask him if it was components for dishwashers, or respiratory devices? :)

[winner69]

Did they ask him if it was components for dishwashers, or respiratory devices? :)



I assumed he was talking about FPH because he added in some respects that’s good because it means less people are dying

[Leftfield]

BlackRock keen to up their holding (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/FPH/375531/350196.pdf)?

[Ferg]

BlackRock keen to up their holding (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/FPH/375531/350196.pdf)?
Interesting. I genuinely wonder if having Blackrock as a major shareholder is a double edged sword. Having looked at the various meme short squeeze stocks over the past few months, a common factor I am seeing is Blackrock. They are willing buyers using other people's money in their funds, but I also believe they are an equally willing lender of shares to hedge funds for shorting, for the benefit of Blackrock. Who would lend out shares to shorters, unless you didn't actually own them for your own benefit? It must be the funds & institutions.

As the short squeeze plays out and dies down, it is often Blackrock whose shareholding also dies down over that time frame as short positions and synthetic shares unwind. This is purely anecdotal observations on my part rather than hard and fast data where historically Blackrock has been a major (sometimes the largest) shareholder in shares that have been subjected to attempted short squeezes. I'm not suggesting this is about to happen with FPH, although I do note the current short interest in FPH on the ASX is around 0.5% (not high) and has been on a general uptrend for the past 24 months.

[Leftfield]

Interesting. I genuinely wonder if having Blackrock as a major shareholder is a double edged sword. Having looked at the various meme short squeeze stocks over the past few months, a common factor I am seeing is Blackrock. They are willing buyers using other people's money in their funds, but I also believe they are an equally willing lender of shares to hedge funds for shorting, for the benefit of Blackrock. Who would lend out shares to shorters, unless you didn't actually own them for your own benefit? It must be the funds & institutions.

As the short squeeze plays out and dies down, it is often Blackrock whose shareholding also dies down over that time frame as short positions and synthetic shares unwind.....although I do note the current short interest in FPH on the ASX is around 0.5% (not high) and has been on a general uptrend for the past 24 months.

I'm with you on this. What I see is short term shorting on a stock and algorithm trading which lowers the SP and drives out small investors, while the big institutions load up.

I recall the days when XRO went from $40 down to $13 and of course ATM's current slide $20 to $6 is partially big investors taking advantage of the profit downgrades.

As a long term small investor I'm not too worried as good companies bounce back, (he said hopefully.) I still see FPH as a $50 share in 2 yrs....and remember small investors can benefit, as long as we have the intestinal fortitude (guts) to buy on the lows.

[kiora]

Black Rock also loaded up on AIA

[Leftfield]

Good week for holders.

On the leaderboard and up $1 today. Naice.

[winner69]

Overseas Merchandise data June

Breathing apparatus exports appear to have declined v last year

[kiora]

Are you sure W?
Optical, medical, and measuring equipment 120 99 -16.9 333 374 12.3



1,153 (2020) 1,624 (2021) 40.8 %
Overall up 40%?
Were is breathing equipment specifically listed?

[winner69]

Are you sure W?
Optical, medical, and measuring equipment 120 99 -16.9 333 374 12.3



1,153 (2020) 1,624 (2021) 40.8 %
Overall up 40%?
Were is breathing equipment specifically listed?

I just saw this diagram in Stats report

https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/overseas-merchandise-trade-june-2021

[kiora]

Ack thanks
So breathing equipment could be up as I couldn't specifically find it listed separate from optical, medical & measuring?

[Ferg]

Not sure how to make the image bigger but I think you are both right. June month is down 17% but June year is up 40%.

12778

[winner69]

we need alokdhir to give us the real numbers - he keep tracks of exports at a lower level

[alokdhir]

we need alokdhir to give us the real numbers - he keep tracks of exports at a lower level


Just checked as I forgot today was the day exports data came out


June exports estimates is just $ 125 Mil ...!!!

Total 1st qtr estimates are $ 470 mil revenue and NP of $ 122 Mil @ 26% ....


June was a low month for FPH !!!

[winner69]

Just checked as I forgot today was the day exports data came out


June exports estimates is just $ 125 Mil ...!!!

Total 1st qtr estimates are $ 470 mil revenue and NP of $ 122 Mil @ 26% ....


June was a low month for FPH !!!

So on track to exceed H121 revenues of $910m ...... yes?

Or is June month a bit of a worry if it continues like this

[macduffy]

Do we know how much of FPH's production is made in NZ - and exported - and how much is made overseas?

[Rawz]

So much guessing and second guessing of how much top line and bottom line will slip from the covid bump we had FY21. I think KFL summed it up well in their latest update on how to approach this.


We bought Fisher & Paykel Healthcare when the marketover-reacted to negative newsFisher & Paykel Healthcare’s Optiflow technology became the globalstandard for treating COVID last year. Demand for Optiflow surged.However, for the last 15 months, the market has been desperatelytrying to pre-empt and price the end of that surge. The market thought itsaw the end of the surge in May, when the company delivered weakerthan-expected results, and an uncertain short-term outlook saw the shareprice fall by 15%.To us, a key attraction of the company is its exceptionally long runwayfor growth. Around 50 million acute respiratory-illness patients a yearwould benefit from the Optiflow product. With Optiflow currentlytreating less than 10 million patients, we believe there is capacityto serve more. Investors who focus on the short-term, post-COVIDslowdown in demand, may end up limiting their potential participationin this forecast runway for growth.We bought more Fisher & Paykel Healthcare stock when the market’sknee-jerk reaction to short-term noise made the price attractive.

It's trading at 35 P/E and could comfortably trade at a 50 P/E like other blue chip medical companies. So room to absorb a pull back from FY21 bumper numbers (if any).

[alokdhir]

So on track to exceed H121 revenues of $910m ...... yes?

Or is June month a bit of a worry if it continues like this

Just stating as I see the data ....Its varying a lot month on month basis ...so not easy to extrapolate anything ....overall they will do well on two counts

1. Covid will keep giving them long term business in addition to their standard bread and butter business

2 . They will most likely get a boost to Sleep apnea devices business also after Philips No 2 provider goes offline for next 18 months to service recalled devices

So I am still hopeful that they may end up doing almost similar revenues like last year ...

[alokdhir]

Do we know how much of FPH's production is made in NZ - and exported - and how much is made overseas?

Its almost 65 % vs 35% from Mexico ...But it depends upon product mix too ...Devices are almost all made in NZ

[macduffy]

Its almost 65 % vs 35% from Mexico ...But it depends upon product mix too ...Devices are almost all made in NZ

Thanks, alokdhir. So NZ export numbers are a good proxy for FPH's device sales.

[Rawz]

FPH were investing in new manufacturing facilities due to covid. I wonder if this was in NZ or outside? maybe more in Mexico?

[alokdhir]

FPH were investing in new manufacturing facilities due to covid. I wonder if this was in NZ or outside? maybe more in Mexico?

Their new factories 2 in Mexico and 1 in Auckland were planned much before Covid came but they hastened their commissioning ....One still getting ready in Mexico ...2022 is the earliest it come online

They planned to almost double their Hospital sector capacity by 2023 ( Was planned in 2018 ) and 60% to Homecare sector capacity .

This was done after seeing the performance and acceptance of its new products like Optiflow and Airvo2 etc

By 2024 they plan to have $ 3.5-4 Billion in revenue ...so if it works out well then FPH maybe $ 75 in 2024 !!!

[Rawz]

Thanks alokdhir- share traders 'FPH master'

[Panda-NZ-]

Delta variant gradually becoming more of an issue, vaccinated people now being asked to wear masks in the US.

Plus vaccine hesitancy and subsequent outbreaks, may lead to a more sales which analysts haven't really priced in.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/articles/2021-07-27/these-states-have-the-lowest-covid-19-vaccination-rates

[Leftfield]

Delta variant gradually becoming more of an issue, vaccinated people now being asked to wear masks in the US.

This graph highlights the concerning recent trend in the USA..... heading back to over 100,000 cases per day.

12806

[iceman]

This graph highlights the concerning recent trend in the USA..... heading back to over 100,000 cases per day.

12806

I no longer buy into "cases per day", even though they still apply in NZ & Aus. That number has become irrelevant in highly vaccinated populations. "severe symptoms", hospitalised", "deaths" are the numbers we now need to look out for.

[alokdhir]

I no longer buy into "cases per day", even though they still apply in NZ & Aus. That number has become irrelevant in highly vaccinated populations. "severe symptoms", hospitalised", "deaths" are the numbers we now need to look out for.

Unfortunately that too are rising fast currently at 94600 critical and almost 5 times in hospital . Though its well established that vaccinations have helped reduce severe symptoms .

Only worry is waning immunity of vaccines and new variants emerging .

Its a long term story which all have started realising sadly .

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

At last peak ...Critical patients topped out at 110,000 ....now we are getting close as Delta takes full hold ...maybe peak about 2 weeks away on global front .

[kiora]

That is 16 m that have had it & not died or recovered?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[alokdhir]

That is 16 m that have had it & not died or recovered?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Yes ...16m is the current active cases in the world ...95K critically ill and about 400K in hospitals

[iceman]

Unfortunately that too are rising fast currently at 94600 critical and almost 5 times in hospital . Though its well established that vaccinations have helped reduce severe symptoms .

Only worry is waning immunity of vaccines and new variants emerging .

Its a long term story which all have started realising sadly .

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

At last peak ...Critical patients topped out at 110,000 ....now we are getting close as Delta takes full hold ...maybe peak about 2 weeks away on global front .

Agree but I think the endless focus on "new daily cases" does not give us any useful information anymore.

[Panda-NZ-]

Ventilators and high flow machines in demand again:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAftL31o-8A

New cases +235k per day.

[Leftfield]

Ventilators and high flow machines in demand again:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAftL31o-8A
New cases +235k per day.

Thanks for posting. Interesting but scary viewing.

[Panda-NZ-]

Texas seeking out of state help now, which may include more ventilators.

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2021-08-10/texas-seeks-out-of-state-medical-help-amid-covid-crisis

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-08/austin-with-just-six-icu-beds-left-warns-of-dire-covid-state (https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2021-08-10/texas-seeks-out-of-state-medical-help-amid-covid-crisis)

[alex f]

Scary stuff. Why did the scare price tank 1.15 today? Concerns over growth in the quarterly report due soon???

[Cricketfan]

Scary stuff. Why did the scare price tank 1.15 today? Concerns over growth in the quarterly report due soon???

Does there need to be a reason? Look at the chart over the last year, there are plenty of times when it 'tanked' (and also the opposite).

[Rawz]

I recall reading a brokers commentary that said FPH often has big(ish) swings depending on what the offshore funds were doing.

Certainly hasn’t tanked.

[winner69]

Down again today …in the NZ Herald -

Matt Goodson, managing director of Salts Fund Management, said the market was mixed and led down by Fisher and Paykel Healthcare, which has been weak over the past two days.

"The only thing I can connect this with is the result from an American medical devices company Vapotherm which suggested sales looking forward were falling away quicker than expected.

[winner69]

Any fph gossip over on hotcopper

[couta1]

Any fph gossip over on hotcopper Gossip is that this share will be worth $50 in 2-3 yrs. Disc-Holding quite a few.

[alokdhir]

Gossip is that this share will be worth $50 in 2-3 yrs. Disc-Holding quite a few.

Fully agree ....Next two years it will get rerated ...after seeing its current year's eps of around 85-90 cents ( my expectations ) ...process of rerating will start after that ...at present market too pessimistic on its prospects . Half yearly results should wake up many analysts ...at present my estimated forecast is 1050 mil revenue and 275 mil NP

Its a long term hold for next 10-15 years IMHO

[alex f]

There is a quarterly update due very soon. The January quarterly update got people quite excited. The price has been bouncing about during the last week, but that seems normal these days. RB rates tomorrow the market has probably already priced it in.

[Leftfield]

Enjoying the SP hike today ....... maybe some good news expected at tomorrow's ASM??

FPH's SP got hammered because their last update didn't make any FY22 forecasts (due to Covid uncertainty)..... I expect that to change tomorrow.

[alokdhir]

People under estimate the hedge value of FPH during current times . Having FPH in portfolio lets u play others stocks also as when they go down FPH bails out !!!

[Monarch]

People under estimate the hedge value of FPH during current times . Having FPH in portfolio lets u play others stocks also as when they go down FPH bails out !!!

My thoughts exactly. Always shied away from FPH due to how pricey it is but I think the price is warranted at a time like this and have been accumulating on weakness recently.

[Rawz]

We could see FPH climb to previous highs ($38?), if the OCR stays as is today. A lower NZ$ and continued spread of covid delta strain could provide the tailwinds needed to drive the SP up.

AGM will also provide positive updates I am expecting.

Glad I hold FPH in my portfolio right now

[alokdhir]

Dont expect any price sensitive news from AGM ...as its still the same for the company ...they cant forecast ahead ....see it took one day to change NZ setup of double OCR hike to most likely none ...so how can FPH know what ahead !!

But we all know since long that Covid is here to stay ...so FPH will remain in limelight ...:D

[Leftfield]

Mmmmm not quite the update I hoped for, see it here. (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/377448)

Outlook for the remainder of the 2022 financial year
Given the continuing uncertainties associated with vaccination rates, the efficacy of various vaccines against variants of the coronavirus, and public and civic responses to COVID-19 case numbers, the company is not providing quantitative revenue or earnings guidance for the remainder of the 2022 financial year.

....The longer-term impact from COVID-19 for our Hospital business has been an increased installed base of our hardware and increased global physician awareness and experience with our therapies and products throughout hospitals. We are confident this will result in an increasing number of patients receiving the benefits of these therapies and products in the years to come.

[couta1]

Mmmmm not quite the update I hoped for, see it here. (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/377448)

Outlook for the remainder of the 2022 financial year
Given the continuing uncertainties associated with vaccination rates, the efficacy of various vaccines against variants of the coronavirus, and public and civic responses to COVID-19 case numbers, the company is not providing quantitative revenue or earnings guidance for the remainder of the 2022 financial year.

....The longer-term impact from COVID-19 for our Hospital business has been an increased installed base of our hardware and increased global physician awareness and experience with our therapies and products throughout hospitals. We are confident this will result in an increasing number of patients receiving the benefits of these therapies and products in the years to come.


Looks okay to me given the current situation, not giving guidance is a wise move unlike a certain milk company.

[MarineSalvage]

I think the update was as good as it can be... unless Lewis had bought a Crystal Ball in the last quarter
Looks okay to me given the current situation, not giving guidance is a wise move unlike a certain milk company.

[Ferg]

All I know about forecasts is that they are always wrong. It's just a question of how wrong or how much rounding you apply to a forecast to mask inaccuracy. If you know nothing then say nothing, rather than say something which you know will be wrong. But there is a positive in the last quoted sentence from the announcement. It hints at higher volumes and quiet confidence.

[kiora]

Revenue looks far better (-2% )than analysts were predicting(-35%)
Good that consumables were relatively higher than hardware (better margins than hardware?)
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/FISHER-PAYKEL-HEALTHCAR-6492630/financials/
Result could be impacted by freight costs
It will be interesting to see the % amount of Research & Development. They have said growing R & D in real terms but how does this compare as % of revenue? Hopefully lower as %.

[alokdhir]

583 Mil for 4 months means even July was lean after June . But now I think it will pick up again .

Not happy they not got much support from sleep apnea devices slack of Philips recall ...maybe too early .

ResMed is booming because of that ...FPH should have also got some benefit !!

[iceman]

I think the update is very good with only a -2% change in revenue from the extraordinary period last year. Consumables creeping up and huge increase in hardware in the last 18 months will see a steady growth in this for the foreseeable future. Totally understandable that they do not provide an outlook. It is a pretty impossible task for most companies today, FPH more so than most others.
A happy holder.

[Leftfield]

I think the update is very good with only a -2% change in revenue from the extraordinary period last year. Consumables creeping up and huge increase in hardware in the last 18 months will see a steady growth in this for the foreseeable future. Totally understandable that they do not provide an outlook. It is a pretty impossible task for most companies today, FPH more so than most others.
A happy holder.

On reflection I'm happy too. The fact that they are tracking so close to last years record revenue levels is very encouraging.

[BlackPeter]

We could see FPH climb to previous highs ($38?), if the OCR stays as is today. A lower NZ$ and continued spread of covid delta strain could provide the tailwinds needed to drive the SP up.

AGM will also provide positive updates I am expecting.

Glad I hold FPH in my portfolio right now

Don't get your hopes up too much - well, at least not if they are based on this wee outbreak in our small home market. I guess our main problem is that we have been so much slower than any other first world country to vaccinate. However, our government anyway does not invest into hospitals (and neither in early vaccinations) - they prefer to pay wage subsidies. Nothing FPH will gain from.

Europe is opening up at the moment - and hospital admissions stay quite low. Even in the US is it only some backwards looking Republican controlled countries (banning mandated vaccinations and mask wearing) which still have significant problems in their ICU departments ... ok - maybe we can sell some more stuff to Texas and Florida.

Of course we might be able to sell some more stuff to Indonesia, Brazil, Russia or Iran (the current Covid hotspots), but they might not have money to pay. As well - a live is not much worth in these countries, so why buy expensive equipment to conserve it?

[alokdhir]

Don't get your hopes up too much - well, at least not if they are based on this wee outbreak in our small home market. I guess our main problem is that we have been so much slower than any other first world country to vaccinate. However, our government anyway does not invest into hospitals (and neither in early vaccinations) - they prefer to pay wage subsidies. Nothing FPH will gain from.

Europe is opening up at the moment - and hospital admissions stay quite low. Even in the US is it only some backwards looking Republican controlled countries (banning mandated vaccinations and mask wearing) which still have significant problems in their ICU departments ... ok - maybe we can sell some more stuff to Texas and Florida.

Of course we might be able to sell some more stuff to Indonesia, Brazil, Russia or Iran (the current Covid hotspots), but they might not have money to pay. As well - a live is not much worth in these countries, so why buy expensive equipment to conserve it?

FPH has presence in 128 countries now . Though historically their major revenue comes from western world but refreshing aspect as seen in today's update is devices sales booming now in non traditional markets.

Also hospitalisations maybe down from historic levels on last peak but still they are significantly high. USA has currently 70,000 covid cases in hospitals , France 9000 , UK 7000 and so on ...

Overall Covid boost will remain for many years to come maybe from different geographies at different waves !

Also even in poor countries like India , Indonesia and Iran there are some very five star hospitals catering to pretty rich people there . Indian private hospitals have more beds then in a medium sized rich country because of sheer numbers there .

FPH has a regional office in India as they consider it future growth market with very low penetration and enormous scope

[peat]

As well - a live is not much worth in these countries, so why buy expensive equipment to conserve it?

OMG what a horrible thing to say

man you do come out with some nasty stuff I've called you Black before but this should be retracted dude - have you no shame?

[BlackPeter]

OMG what a horrible thing to say

man you do come out with some nasty stuff I've called you Black before but this should be retracted dude - have you no shame?

I am just describing and observing. You don't seem to have a clue how little a live (of a poor person) is worth e.g. in Iran.

So - what exactly do you want me to retract? A correct observation?

[peat]

I want you to retract saying that someones life is not worth much

Because you know - old people who die from covid arent worth much either right? so why should we lockdown.

that is the problem with your stating that !

[Mista_Trix]

It's not wrong though. Different countries place different value on life, and different societies value old and young lives differently as well. It's sad but very true.

[peat]

It's not wrong though. Different countries place different value on life, and different societies value old and young lives differently as well. It's sad but very true.

and different people place different value on civil liberties

[BlackPeter]

I want you to retract saying that someones life is not worth much

Because you know - old people who die from covid arent worth much either right? so why should we lockdown.

that is the problem with your stating that !

You clearly do not not understand the posts you are attacking. Pretty disgraceful behaviour.

I did describe the situation in some other countries, where the human life of their citizens (if it is the life of poor people or the life of regime critics) is very little worth for the authoritarian governments running the show.

I never stated that anyone's human life is in my view of low value. I assume however that even you understand that for some people (like e.g. the religious autocrats in Iran or the strongman in Brazil or in Russia) the life of some people is of very low value. They demonstrate that on a daily basis by happily killing them and / or ignoring their needs.

This is what I meant when I said that in some countries the life of people is not of much value.

You are clearly misinterpreting my posts and attacking me without justification. Pretty disgusting behaviour - or is it just dumb?

Re-read my posts. Try to understand them before you spread smears about me. Here is your chance to apologise.

[Rawz]

Market likes the update. Might get my $38 after all :)

[alokdhir]

Market likes the update. Might get my $38 after all :)

U will one day ...but not soon ...maybe after Nov results ..:p

One senior chartist has an AUD 40.50 target by next March 2022 ...That will please all :D

[peat]

even if you qualified it by saying in these countries that is still despicable because you know that to the families and loved ones a life is irreplaceable

[winner69]

Nzd heading under us0.68

Should help out

[alokdhir]

Nzd heading under us0.68

Should help out

Delta and now resignation or realisation that this pandemic is not going away soon is helping too ...still no big upgrades from brokerages ....just small grind up on lowish volumes .

583 Mil in 4 months ...not very exciting but next 2-3 months can be booming with USA really ramping up hospitalisations ...Europe is pitching in but not very big numbers as their vaccinations are still more recent then USA's

I think worst is over ...Now a new uptrend will start or may have started

[Biscuit]

....583 Mil in 4 months ...not very exciting but next 2-3 months can be booming with USA really ramping up hospitalisations ...Europe is pitching in but not very big numbers as their vaccinations are still more recent then USA's I think worst is over ...Now a new uptrend will start or may have started

I love your positivity on the ramping up hospitalisations!! I'm interested in increasing my holding but technically it looks a bit over-bought in the short term?

[Leftfield]

.........I'm interested in increasing my holding but technically it looks a bit over-bought in the short term?

From a TA perspective FPH poised on Golden Cross territory and MACD looking positive, so IMHO more bullish than bearish. Plenty of upside, particularly if you are a long term holder. Quality company which seldom overpromises or underdelivers.

(Disc - Hold )

[Biscuit]

From a TA perspective FPH poised on Golden Cross territory and MACD looking positive, so IMHO more bullish than bearish. Plenty of upside, particularly if you are a long term holder. Quality company which seldom overpromises or underdelivers.

(Disc - Hold )

I'm not a TA person in any respect but am looking to incorporate it more into buying/selling decisions. RSI indicates short-term over-bought? But certainly long-term upside IMO.

[kiora]

Near term I would expect it will be about selling more consumables rather than hardware for Covid cases but also
Now that more hospitals have the hardware to be used more for O2 therapy in other treatments
Time will tell the level of uptake for the alternative therapies but the sincerity of the FPH team to support Covid therapy should greatly help

[Leftfield]

I'm not a TA person in any respect but am looking to incorporate it more into buying/selling decisions. RSI indicates short-term over-bought? But certainly long-term upside IMO.

FWIW Biscuit I have found this simple MACD much more predictive for BUY/SELL signals.

In the chart below, back test the MACD and you will see some clear signals. The chart also highlights the recent buying opportunities versus the longer term trend where FPH was seldom below the 90 day MA.

12862

JMHO. Each to his/hers own.

[Biscuit]

FWIW Biscuit I have found this simple MACD much more predictive for BUY/SELL signals.

In the chart below, back test the MACD and you will see some clear signals. The chart also highlights the recent buying opportunities versus the longer term trend where FPH was seldom below the 90 day MA.

JMHO. Each to his/hers own.

Thanks Left Field. As I say, I'm a complete novice to TA. It looks to me like MACD is a bit of a late signal though? By the time its telling you to buy, you've already missed out, at least where a share is cycling up and down like FPH has been. It seems to me, at this point, its as likely to turn back down as to head north?

[alokdhir]

Thanks Left Field. As I say, I'm a complete novice to TA. It looks to me like MACD is a bit of a late signal though? By the time its telling you to buy, you've already missed out, at least where a share is cycling up and down like FPH has been. It seems to me, at this point, its as likely to turn back down as to head north?

Very possible in near future ....but not immediately . Current scenario is too positive for FPH ...Hospitalisations rising....NZD falling ....lockdowns etc

So it will complete its bullish targets in the near term ...then maybe your wish will come true !!

But IMHO though it will go up and down but overall trend is going to be up towards making new highs in the medium term ...so rising lows and higher highs ...buy the dips

[Leftfield]

Thanks Left Field. ... It looks to me like MACD is a bit of a late signal though?


But IMHO though it will go up and down but overall trend is going to be up towards making new highs in the medium term ...so rising lows and higher highs ...buy the dips

Exactly. TA is called TREND analysis for a reason. Using it will increase your chances of picking TREND changes.

Another key to look for is BIG SALES VOLUMES around the time of a shift in the direction of the Trend as signalled by MACD etc.

The following charts show trend change signals highlighted, both by changes in MACD trends plus big SALES VOLUME shifts.

You don't need to buy/sell at an exact crossing point, just be aware of the TREND CHANGE SIGNALS.

In the MOV case I bought in at the $1.20 mark (so far so good) In the FPH case most of my buying was around the $30 mark (so far so good.)

12864

12863

JMHO - as always DYOR and take responsibility for your own decisions.

[iceman]

A FPH worker from their East Tamaki factory has tested positive. Ina statement this morning a Fisher & Paykel Healthcare spokesperson said they were following established contact tracing processes and had been working with public health authorities to notify anyone who may have had contact with the person.

"Our people have had early access to COVID-19 vaccinations, and we have extensive on-site safety measures, such as rapid saliva testing and Bluetooth contact tracing cards, to minimise the chance of transmission at our facilities."

[alokdhir]

A FPH worker from their East Tamaki factory has tested positive. Ina statement this morning a Fisher & Paykel Healthcare spokesperson said they were following established contact tracing processes and had been working with public health authorities to notify anyone who may have had contact with the person.

"Our people have had early access to COVID-19 vaccinations, and we have extensive on-site safety measures, such as rapid saliva testing and Bluetooth contact tracing cards, to minimise the chance of transmission at our facilities."


In short ...Nothing to worry ....They had early access to Vaccinations but not supermarket workers and Police ...not level playing field IMO

[BlackPeter]

In short ...Nothing to worry ....They had early access to Vaccinations but not supermarket workers and Police ...not level playing field IMO

I think we all agree that the vaccination rollout has been not just very tardy but the organisation looks more like a dogs breakfast. Of course they should have prioritized all essential workers (including police and supermarket workers - basically anybody who comes during their essential work in contact with the general public).

Having said that - I think there is a point for prioritizing FPH workers as well. The products they make are clearly essential during the current pandemic, we don't want them to shut down production due to a Covid outbreak, do we?.

[kiora]

And well entrenched risk management plan, it's in their DNA

[alokdhir]

I think we all agree that the vaccination rollout has been not just very tardy but the organisation looks more like a dogs breakfast. Of course they should have prioritized all essential workers (including police and supermarket workers - basically anybody who comes during their essential work in contact with the general public).

Having said that - I think there is a point for prioritizing FPH workers as well. The products they make are clearly essential during the current pandemic, we don't want them to shut down production due to a Covid outbreak, do we?.

Yes I agree ...all essential services which are open today at level 4 should have been prioritised ...FPH do fall in that but many others also who were not !!

[alokdhir]

Today at 111576 Critical patients worldwide has crossed previous peak levels of early Jan and its still rising ...as Delta is still spreading very fast .

Though it will help FPH but will hurt humanity

[Ggcc]

I think we all agree that the vaccination rollout has been not just very tardy but the organisation looks more like a dogs breakfast. Of course they should have prioritized all essential workers (including police and supermarket workers - basically anybody who comes during their essential work in contact with the general public).

Having said that - I think there is a point for prioritizing FPH workers as well. The products they make are clearly essential during the current pandemic, we don't want them to shut down production due to a Covid outbreak, do we?.
Of the people I have met. Over 50% have vocalised their distrust in the vaccine. I don’t think it is only the late terrible rollout. Lots of people just don’t want the vaccine, or missing their appointments due to misinformation and herd mentality because their friends shared something on Facebook.

I have heard people were giving vaccinations to randoms at a Napier location who walked past due to people just not turning up and having to throw vaccine if not used. Last count 40 something% of people in Napier were vaccinated just under 30% of Maori in Napier have been vaccinated and mentioned to me by a nurse, they are the most well informed to take up the vaccine. It’s a long hard road for any government pushing this onto people.

I’m getting my second jab on Tuesday

[BlackPeter]

Of the people I have met. Over 50% have vocalised their distrust in the vaccine. I don’t think it is only the late terrible rollout. Lots of people just don’t want the vaccine, or missing their appointments due to misinformation and herd mentality because their friends shared something on Facebook.

I have heard people were giving vaccinations to randoms at a Napier location who walked past due to people just not turning up and having to throw vaccine if not used. Last count 40 something% of people in Napier were vaccinated just under 30% of Maori in Napier have been vaccinated and mentioned to me by a nurse, they are the most well informed to take up the vaccine. It’s a long hard road for any government pushing this onto people.

I’m getting my second jab on Tuesday

You are right - the poison some brainless idiots spread on social media (unfortunately as well in this forum) clearly does some job. I find it difficult to understand how the antivaxxers can still look in the mirror without the need to vomit ... but than, they seem to be tough people (like weed - hard to root out) and hey, there is other despicable scum able to do that as well.

Having said that - some of them are really just dumb and this is not their fault. Unfortunately humans are genetically disposed to "believe" in things which don't make any sense.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Need to push back here a bit fellas - all “essential’ workers were not the “obvious” targets for priority to get the vaccine first. Essential workers on the border interacting with potential infectious people (MIQ/aircrew/customs/health workers etc) were OBVIOUS, and after that it clearly was the population who were much likely to die if they caught the virus: old people and the immuno-compromised. Supermarket workers are well down the list of people needing priority. Supermarket workers who can be temporary replaced with new staff with a couple of hours training are far down the list of priority. FPH workers, who require much higher level of skill, absolutely are more important priority wise.

[Rawz]

Of the people I have met. Over 50% have vocalised their distrust in the vaccine. I don’t think it is only the late terrible rollout. Lots of people just don’t want the vaccine, or missing their appointments due to misinformation and herd mentality because their friends shared something on Facebook.

I have heard people were giving vaccinations to randoms at a Napier location who walked past due to people just not turning up and having to throw vaccine if not used. Last count 40 something% of people in Napier were vaccinated just under 30% of Maori in Napier have been vaccinated and mentioned to me by a nurse, they are the most well informed to take up the vaccine. It’s a long hard road for any government pushing this onto people.

I’m getting my second jab on Tuesday

I agree. I'm in my early 30's and booked a jab last week at 11.30am for a 2.30pm slot same day. Turned up half an hour early. No lines, very fast. No questions why i was there as my age bracket wasnt due their jab yet. They were happy to take me and to be honest could have done with another 100 people rolling in behind me.

FPH- if someone said they would give you $1m and you had to choose one NZX stock to invest it in (no managed fund like KFL) and couldn't touch it for 20 years it would have to be FPH- surely??? MFT close second. RBD 3rd. HLG 4th because it has stood the test of time already

[peat]

the poison some brainless idiots
how can the antivaxxers can still look in the mirror without the need to vomit ..
other despicable scum

Having said that - some of them are really just dumb and this is not their fault.

nice that you are so empathetic
can you please hold back on the vitriol and accept that some people make their own choices using their own logic.

[Biscuit]

......FPH- if someone said they would give you $1m and you had to choose one NZX stock to invest it in (no managed fund like KFL) and couldn't touch it for 20 years it would have to be FPH- surely??? MFT close second. RBD 3rd. HLG 4th because it has stood the test of time already

Would go along with FPH and MFT, but RBD? They don't seem in the same league to me at all. What you like about them? There are other growth companies like DGL I'd go for first.

[alokdhir]

FPH seems to be winding up ...once crossed $ 34 then next stop maybe $ 36 ...just like MFT ...What a move !! $ 92.50

[BlackPeter]

nice that you are so empathetic
can you please hold back on the vitriol and accept that some people make their own choices using their own logic.

I am empathetic, but not with people who put the society we all live in at risk. Are you empathetic with boy racers, thieves and murderers? See ...

Apart from that - your post doesn't compute ...

"some people make their own choices using their own logic"

I am all for people making their own choices - however, if they choose to endanger others (as the anti vaxxers do) than they should in my view be punished. Not different to e.g. boy racers who put without hesitation the lives of other people at risk.

Regarding "using their own logic". Hmm - just tell us how many different logics there are out there - and can anybody make up their own logic?

The definition of logic:


reasoning conducted or assessed according to strict principles of validity.

is inconsistent with your desire to allow any Joe, Dick and Antivaxxer to make up their own logic.

So, really, it is quite easy: either you use above principle and valid facts to argue or alternatively you are just creating your own anti vaxxing religion. Same as the Flat Earth people or other idiots.

Obviously - everybody is allowed to make up their own religion and freedom of religion is even a basic human right. However - it has nothing to do with logic or facts.

The other thing is - most world religions these days try to improve human life and interactions (with varying success). Your Antivaxxer religion however seems mainly focussed on putting both its disciples as well as the society in general at risk. Latter is something no society can tolerate.

How do they say - reason is the worst enemy of any religion - and this includes the net of lies woven by the anti vaxxers.

[Biscuit]

I am empathetic, but not with people who put the society we all live in at risk. Are you empathetic with boy racers, thieves and murderers? See ...

Apart from that - your post doesn't compute ...

"some people make their own choices using their own logic"

I am all for people making their own choices - however, if they choose to endanger others (as the anti vaxxers do) than they should in my view be punished. Not different to e.g. boy racers who put without hesitation the lives of other people at risk.

Regarding "using their own logic". Hmm - just tell us how many different logics there are out there - and can anybody make up their own logic?

The definition of logic:



is inconsistent with your desire to allow any Joe, Dick and Antivaxxer to make up their own logic.

So, really, it is quite easy: either you use above principle and valid facts to argue or alternatively you are just creating your own anti vaxxing religion. Same as the Flat Earth people or other idiots.

Obviously - everybody is allowed to make up their own religion and freedom of religion is even a basic human right. However - it has nothing to do with logic or facts.

The other thing is - most world religions these days try to improve human life and interactions (with varying success). Your Antivaxxer religion however seems mainly focussed on putting both its disciples as well as the society in general at risk. Latter is something no society can tolerate.

How do they say - reason is the worst enemy of any religion - and this includes the net of lies woven by the anti vaxxers.

The problem with the anti-vaxxers is they don't just believe a load of nonsense, they are part of a highly organised movement dedicated to spreading dangerous disinformation.

[alokdhir]

I am empathetic, but not with people who put the society we all live in at risk. Are you empathetic with boy racers, thieves and murderers? See ...

Apart from that - your post doesn't compute ...

"some people make their own choices using their own logic"

I am all for people making their own choices - however, if they choose to endanger others (as the anti vaxxers do) than they should in my view be punished. Not different to e.g. boy racers who put without hesitation the lives of other people at risk.

Regarding "using their own logic". Hmm - just tell us how many different logics there are out there - and can anybody make up their own logic?

The definition of logic:



is inconsistent with your desire to allow any Joe, Dick and Antivaxxer to make up their own logic.

So, really, it is quite easy: either you use above principle and valid facts to argue or alternatively you are just creating your own anti vaxxing religion. Same as the Flat Earth people or other idiots.

Obviously - everybody is allowed to make up their own religion and freedom of religion is even a basic human right. However - it has nothing to do with logic or facts.

The other thing is - most world religions these days try to improve human life and interactions (with varying success). Your Antivaxxer religion however seems mainly focussed on putting both its disciples as well as the society in general at risk. Latter is something no society can tolerate.

How do they say - reason is the worst enemy of any religion - and this includes the net of lies woven by the anti vaxxers.

I pretty much said the same thing on Coronavirus thread and I got nasty PMs ....I fully agree with what u said BP and feel same way too when some people put the lives of others at risk under the garb of " Freedom "

[kiora]

"Fisher & Paykel is more of a hold at the moment. There is still a year or two where the company has to grow into its PE and we have to go through this period of earnings consolidation. Don't underestimate that one of the hardest things for Fisher & Paykel is to get those upfront hardware sales of their products into hospitals. Once they're in the hospitals they create an income stream for the business. A lot of physicians are now more familiar with these devices. It takes years for that to normally happen and COVID has created this massive pull through in recognition of the brand and the technology that Fisher & Paykel has been very aggressively investing in for the last decade."
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/two-stunning-healthcare-stocks-hint-it-s-not-csl
At AGM on line FPH are very confident about their supply chain

[Rawz]

Would go along with FPH and MFT, but RBD? They don't seem in the same league to me at all. What you like about them? There are other growth companies like DGL I'd go for first.

These games of picking stocks you cant touch for 20 years is half about growth and also half about preserving capital. And fried chicken, pizza's etc probably going to still be around in 20 years time I figure. Plus RBD have a long runway of growth ahead of them imo so ticks both boxes. Wine the same so DGL a good pick also!

Industry disruption and incumbents fighting to hold onto what they have rather than adjusting with the times mean over decades some top companies of the world fade away into shadows of their former selves.

[winner69]

July export sales of fph related stuff looked pretty strong v last year

Alokdhir …correct?

[alokdhir]

July export sales of fph related stuff looked pretty strong v last year

Alokdhir …correct?

Not particularly ...better then June but less then last July 2020 ....dollar value estimate is $ 140 mil .

Didn't post as company already gave 4 months revenue of $ 583 Mil

So far June was the weakest ...July started ramping up ....I think August numbers will be very interesting ...With OZ also now becoming decent buyer thanks to NSW fiasco

Bigger picture remains, its consolidation year for FPH ...2022 and 2023 are big years ....U have chance till maybe 15th Oct 2021 to get in ....IMHO

[Biscuit]

....... IMHO though it will go up and down but overall trend is going to be up towards making new highs in the medium term ...so rising lows and higher highs ...buy the dips

So I bought the "dip" today around $32, lets see how that goes....

[BlackPeter]

So I bought the "dip" today around $32, lets see how that goes....

I normally use the MA400 to recognise "dips" with this share and other quality stocks. Still a bit above (the yellow line in the chart below), but long term (several years) I am sure you will be fine :); Expect however further buying opportunities ahead ...

12891

[Biscuit]

.... Expect however further buying opportunities ahead ......

I expect both buying and selling opportunities ahead! But thanks for the suggestion of watching the 400 day moving average for dips, I was more inclined to draw a line under lows in the direction of the current trend and see how that worked out, using it and the RSI to guess dips.

[alokdhir]

I expect both buying and selling opportunities ahead! But thanks for the suggestion of watching the 400 day moving average for dips, I was more inclined to draw a line under lows in the direction of the current trend and see how that worked out, using it and the RSI to guess dips.

BP is a very prudent and cautious buyer . Buying around $ 30 if possible is the best case scenario . Very surprised by its sluggish behaviour in the middle of big Delta outbreak worldwide with Critically ill Patients at record levels ...even above last peak ...also its lasting longer then previous waves . But it takes only a week to change the mood on this stock by Broker upgrades ...at present they still waiting to see it consolidate over last 2 years gains .

FPH is a big mover and wide trading range too ...u can take advantage of that if inclined to trade .

[couta1]

BP is a very prudent and cautious buyer . Buying around $ 30 if possible is the best case scenario . Very surprised by its sluggish behaviour in the middle of big Delta outbreak worldwide with Critically ill Patients at record levels ...even above last peak ...also its lasting longer then previous waves . But it takes only a week to change the mood on this stock by Broker upgrades ...at present they still waiting to see it consolidate over last 2 years gains .

FPH is a big mover and wide trading range too ...u can take advantage of that if inclined to trade . Yep it moves quickly up when any overseas buying starts, good trading stock if you can afford a bit of volume otherwise a great long term hold, as safe a money parking spot as any I reckon in these times.

[Biscuit]

BP is a very prudent and cautious buyer . Buying around $ 30 if possible is the best case scenario . ......

Question is whether its settled into an up trend now (as per the last 3 months) or whether it is going to continue "consolidating" back down to $30. I'm picking its in an up-trend but I've got plenty of ammo if it drops back to $30. Its too good a company for it to keep treading water at $30 IMO.

[alokdhir]

Question is whether its settled into an up trend now (as per the last 3 months) or whether it is going to continue "consolidating" back down to $30. I'm picking its in an up-trend but I've got plenty of ammo if it drops back to $30. Its too good a company for it to keep treading water at $30 IMO.

With hospitalisations at record levels ...even higher then any previous peak ...almost all countries now changing to " Living with the Virus " tune and breakthrough infections leading to hospitalisations on the rise in highly or almost fully vaccinated ( practically possible of eligible population ) ....FPH should very soon find favour with Broker analysts who had priced it for this year based on assumptions that Covid will be history soon and vaccinate and be fully normal will happen sooner then latter . IMHO those assumptions are not holding up well at all at the moment

I had thought myself that we will not see higher numbers of hospitalisations again after early this year ..due to success of vaccinations and measures taken by many western countries to vaccinate their populations ASAP ...USA / UK / Israel and many more almost 60-80% vaccinated still getting into very high numbers of hospitalisations . So FPH will need to incorporate their new therapies for General hospital use ...Fisher funds talks about it ...it can benefit 50 million patients a year ...at present only 7 million using it ...so long growth possible . That would have taken more time thus longer consolidation time for SP of FPH

But now whats happening is super beneficial to FPH hospital care business ....Covid care will be staying on horizon for longterm now ...not as thought before

FPH should be out of this consolidation phase sooner then anticipated by all before ...including me and will reach higher medium term targets then before

TA experts ...what do u see on charts ?

[moose]

Interesting article in the NYT - https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/08/29/world/covid-delta-variant-vaccine (highlights below but well worth reading....)

The Latest News on Coronavirus and the Delta VariantAug. 29, 2021Updated Aug. 30, 2021, 5:30 a.m. ET20 minutes ago
20 minutes ago

The U.S. reaches 100,000 average daily Covid hospitalizations for the first time since winter. (https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/08/29/world/covid-delta-variant-vaccine#delta-100000-covid-patients)
Hospitalizations nationwide have increased by nearly 500 percent in the past two months, particularly across Southern states, where I.C.U. beds are filling up.

The E.U. is set to reimpose travel restrictions on U.S. visitors. (https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/08/29/world/covid-delta-variant-vaccine#the-eu-is-set-to-reimpose-travel-restrictions-on-us-visitors)
Israel extends booster shots to everyone aged 12 and above. (https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/08/29/world/covid-delta-variant-vaccine#israel-extends-booster-shots-to-everyone-aged-12-and-above)
In states with virus surges, hospitals have a concerning number of young patients. (https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/08/29/world/covid-delta-variant-vaccine#in-states-with-virus-surges-hospitals-have-a-concerning-number-of-young-patients)
A Covid outbreak complicates Louisiana’s ability to deal with Hurricane Ida. (https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/08/29/world/covid-delta-variant-vaccine#a-covid-outbreak-complicates-louisianas-ability-to-deal-with-hurricane-ida)
Mississippi, the poorest state in the country, was woefully unprepared for its recent Covid surge. (https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/08/29/world/covid-delta-variant-vaccine#mississippi-the-poorest-state-in-the-country-was-woefully-unprepared-for-its-recent-covid-surge)
As the virus surges in Oregon, counties are asking for mobile morgues to house the dead. (https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/08/29/world/covid-delta-variant-vaccine#as-the-virus-surges-in-oregon-counties-are-asking-for-mobile-morgues-to-house-the-dead)
Houses of worship struggle with fear of Delta’s rise within their congregations. (https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/08/29/world/covid-delta-variant-vaccine#houses-of-worship-struggle-with-fear-of-deltas-rise-within-their-congregations)

[Panda-NZ-]

Millions of Phillips medical devices in the United States recalled for cancer risk.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cpap-machine-recall-sleep-apnea/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UhzrWk5v57s

[couta1]

Millions of Phillips medical devices in the United States recalled for cancer risk.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cpap-machine-recall-sleep-apnea/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UhzrWk5v57s Kinda old news now but can only be good for FPH.

[alokdhir]

Such institutional crossings today ...many block deals of 1000K shares worth $33Mil @ 33.10 on NZX ...lots of activity . Hopefully smart money in ...lol

[alokdhir]

FPH below 400 SMA ....400EMA still away ...:confused:

[Biscuit]

......400EMA still away ...:confused:

That would take us back to $30. Maybe BlackPeter's caution was wise.

[BlackPeter]

FPH below 400 SMA ....400EMA still away ...:confused:

Hunting is easier if you don't make noises.

Watch the prey, let it get as close as possible and than jump on it ;) ;

[alokdhir]

Hunting is easier if you don't make noises.

Watch the prey, let it get as close as possible and than jump on it ;) ;

I was hunting as a group ...but got your point buddy ...lol :p

[Panda-NZ-]

Might not be liking biden's vaccine mandate..

[alokdhir]

Might not be liking biden's vaccine mandate..

FPH doesn't need any reason to move around ...but most likely due to higher inflation worries spooking high multiples stocks ...Nasdaq had a bad 4th day

[winner69]

FPH below 400 SMA ....400EMA still away ...:confused:

Below 400MA always seems to so depressing

So current price is below the average price of the last 400 trading days …..1.6 years or thereabouts

Doesn’t seem much an investment on that basis

Depressing stuff

[alokdhir]

Below 400MA always seems to so depressing

So current price is below the average price of the last 400 trading days …..1.6 years or thereabouts

Doesn’t seem much an investment on that basis

Depressing stuff

Thats the reason it doesn't stay below that for long ...time to get in buddy ...steer the ship to $ 50 ...Couta will like ...:D

[LoungeLizzard]

Below 400MA always seems to so depressing

So current price is below the average price of the last 400 trading days …..1.6 years or thereabouts

Doesn’t seem much an investment on that basis

Depressing stuff

Yep, for a "growth" stock, that is depressing. What is also depressing is Management seem unresponsive to shareholders. They've made extraordinary profits over the course of the pandemic but no special dividend, no buybacks and very little info on future earnings or growth. I realise the SP moves at the whim of the instos and good times may come round again, but the lack of SP support is unusual for what should be a defensive stock. :confused:

[Panda-NZ-]

Plus FPH has always had a high PE ratio.

3% OCR and the stock was still climbing.
Maybe the market thinks we'll have 6% interest rates but that's rather unlikely.

[Biscuit]

Plus FPH has always had a high PE ratio.

3% OCR and the stock was still climbing.
Maybe the market thinks we'll have 6% interest rates but that's rather unlikely.

I think the market is in two minds about FPH because it reaped a huge covid reward and everyone is thinking... well, what now? Personally I think this is such a quality company that it will continue to power on from here. May take a bit of time for the market to wake up to that, but not too long I suspect.

[alokdhir]

I think the market is in two minds about FPH because it reaped a huge covid reward and everyone is thinking... well, what now? Personally I think this is such a quality company that it will continue to power on from here. May take a bit of time for the market to wake up to that, but not too long I suspect.

Being just below 400 SMA tells us of the consolidation done after 2 big years ...now its again going to show its merit ...2022 and 2023 belong to FPH .

[LoungeLizzard]

I hope you are right Alokdhir because my patience is wearing pretty thin. I look at Ebos - better yield, steady growth - and think, hmmmmmm.

[iceman]

I hope you are right Alokdhir because my patience is wearing pretty thin. I look at Ebos - better yield, steady growth - and think, hmmmmmm.

Both of those great companies fit nicely into a good value NZX portfolio :-)

[Rawz]

I hope you are right Alokdhir because my patience is wearing pretty thin. I look at Ebos - better yield, steady growth - and think, hmmmmmm.

Don't sweat your holding in FPH. If you are investing for the long term you will be fine. The exposure FPH products has had into new hospitals due to covid has fast forward the business by 3 years (their words).

Any dips in the SP is great for accumulating more shares. I set myself a rule of buying around $29 which has worked quite well over the last 12 months.

EBOS great company as well. Like Iceman says- both are great long term holds in any portfolio.

[winner69]

Media says

Heavyweight Fisher and Paykel Healthcare almost single-handedly drove the New Zealand sharemarket down nearly half a per cent as health stocks were hit overseas.

Sentiment not too positive on health stocks apparently

[jimdog31]

Media says

Heavyweight Fisher and Paykel Healthcare almost single-handedly drove the New Zealand sharemarket down nearly half a per cent as health stocks were hit overseas.

Sentiment not too positive on health stocks apparently

A mere blip. good buying opp.

[LoungeLizzard]

Good advice. I'll hold the line for a while longer. Logically, given that the world is nowhere near on top of Covid, one has to think FPH is going to have turbo-charged revenues for another couple of years at least. If it uses the money wisely - consolidating market share, diversifying product range, perhaps even acquisitions - then the future should be bright.

[couta1]

Thats the reason it doesn't stay below that for long ...time to get in buddy ...steer the ship to $ 50 ...Couta will like ...:D Quality company not bound to selling stuff to China only like other former milky growth companies, no need to sweat during these temporal price drops.

[alokdhir]

Quality company not bound to selling stuff to China only like other former milky growth companies, no need to sweat during these temporal price drops.

Looks like u have conquered all the selling at least on NZX ...:t_up:

[Rawz]

Stock Takes: What's behind Fisher & Paykel's sinking share price?

16 Sep, 2021

By: Tamsyn Parker

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare's recent share price weakness is being blamed on a change in recommendations for Covid treatment out of the United Kingdom.

The UK's National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) indicated CPAP therapy should be the standard care for Covid patients rather than Fisher & Paykel's high-flow nasal oxygen (HFNO).

The findings were based on two controlled trials conducted in the midst of the UK's Covid pandemic which found CPAP therapy reduces the need for intubation in Covid-19 patients but HFNO does not provide any benefit over standard low-flow oxygen therapy.

JP Morgan analysis on the issue noted this was a "surprising and disappointing result for F&P". But said at this stage they did not expect clinical guideline in other jurisdictions to follow the UK's lead until the results of the trial were peer reviewed and published.

"The peer view process is likely to help clarify some concerns with the results including whether the relatively high rate of cross-over between the therapy groups or the lack of a clear protocol for escalating patients to intubation was likely to have had any bearing on the results."

JP Morgan estimate the impact on sales to the UK by F&P as a result of the change in guidance will only be small.

"We estimate sales for the UK account around 4 per cent of F&P's pre-Covid revenues from consumables for the humidification of ventilate patients. Given the small size of UK revenues and the fact the previous NICE guidelines recommended against HFNO for Covid patients, we believe the latest alert is unlikely to have a material impact on group earnings."

Harbour Asset Management's Shane Solly said the situation suggested there could be a bit more consolidation to come in F&P's share price.

"It's more raising a question than saying the treatment is no longer valid." But still he said investors had to take the issue seriously.

[alokdhir]

NICE already had a negative recommendation for HFNO of F&P , now they have given conditional recommendation for CPAP over HFNO while acknowledging the difficulties both at patient level and at hospital level with CPAP ventilation . Only negative is that F&P expected to get positive recommendation for its HFNO which they didn't get ...but still its being seen as beneficial as it is alternative to CPAP ventilation due to patient and hospital reasons .

CPAP is much more difficult on the patient as its much more uncomfortable . Also hospitals need better trained staff for administering it while having both choices available .

Though some CPAP consumables are produced by F&P too .

On the whole not the result F&P wanted as their HFNO didn't get thumbs up as all thought but should not effect them too much .

$ 34 to $ 31 is overreaction IMHO ....CONSOLIDATION CONTINUES !

"The number of organisations who have published evidence based guidelines recommending the use of NHF for COVID-19 patients continues to grow:

World Health Organisation
National Institutes of Health
National Health Commission of the Peoples Republic of China
Surviving Sepsis Campaign
Australia and New Zealand Intensive Care Society
European Respiratory Society
International expert consensus statement
Expert recommendations from a French panel consisting of members from various intensive care societies "

From F&P website ...they have many positive recommendations too :t_up:

[BlackPeter]

While it might be interesting to discuss the daily ripple of price movements, at the end of the day it is as consequential as discussing the ripples in the ocean when dealing with the impact of climate change ...

Just looked at a 10 year chart of FPH (and yes, I used a log-scale) ... and it appears that Covid provided a bit of tailwind for the FPH price (lifting it above the red mean line). It appears as well that SP development did now drop back to the mean ... i.e. we are exactly back to pre-Covid SP growth. Obviously - there may or may not follow some sort of undershoot.

12968

However - in my view no need to worry about the daily share price jitter (unless you are a trader).

PS: Sorry you need to turn your head to fully appreciate the graph. No idea why the forum SW choose to flip the graph by 90 degrees :)

[alokdhir]

While it might be interesting to discuss the daily ripple of price movements, at the end of the day it is as consequential as discussing the ripples in the ocean when dealing with the impact of climate change ...

Just looked at a 10 year chart of FPH (and yes, I used a log-scale) ... and it appears that Covid provided a bit of tailwind for the FPH price (lifting it above the red mean line). It appears as well that SP development did now drop back to the mean ... i.e. we are exactly back to pre-Covid SP growth. Obviously - there may or may not follow some sort of undershoot.

12968

However - in my view no need to worry about the daily share price jitter (unless you are a trader).

PS: Sorry you need to turn your head to fully appreciate the graph. No idea why the forum SW choose to flip the graph by 90 degrees :)

Fully agree ...great time to invest for the long term ...it should follow its long term trend UP :t_up:

[Rawz]

While it might be interesting to discuss the daily ripple of price movements, at the end of the day it is as consequential as discussing the ripples in the ocean when dealing with the impact of climate change ...

Just looked at a 10 year chart of FPH (and yes, I used a log-scale) ... and it appears that Covid provided a bit of tailwind for the FPH price (lifting it above the red mean line). It appears as well that SP development did now drop back to the mean ... i.e. we are exactly back to pre-Covid SP growth. Obviously - there may or may not follow some sort of undershoot.

12968

However - in my view no need to worry about the daily share price jitter (unless you are a trader).

PS: Sorry you need to turn your head to fully appreciate the graph. No idea why the forum SW choose to flip the graph by 90 degrees :)

I think you if are new to investing or worried about the current share price movements, this post by BlackPeter is a perfect reminder to think long term on these type of stocks with incredible track records.

So go on, load that chart and have a look. It's worth the sore neck :p

[kiora]

"Does Fisher Paykel make CPAP machines?
The F&P ICON+ Auto is the fully featured Auto CPAP which combines all of Fisher & Paykel Healthcare's leading clinical technologies including our advanced auto-adjusting algorithm and SensAwake Technology."
"Homecare: CPAP Devices
F&P SleepStyle™Latest
F&P SleepStyle™
HC150
HC150 Humidifier
Product Code: HC150

ICON+ AutoSupported
ICON™+ Auto

https://www.fphcare.com/us/products/homecare-products/cpap-devices/

[alokdhir]

"Does Fisher Paykel make CPAP machines?
The F&P ICON+ Auto is the fully featured Auto CPAP which combines all of Fisher & Paykel Healthcare's leading clinical technologies including our advanced auto-adjusting algorithm and SensAwake Technology."
"Homecare: CPAP Devices
F&P SleepStyle™Latest
F&P SleepStyle™
HC150
HC150 Humidifier
Product Code: HC150

ICON+ AutoSupported
ICON™+ Auto

https://www.fphcare.com/us/products/homecare-products/cpap-devices/

Recent recommendation of NICE is about CPAP in hospital setting and that too in favour of famed F&P 's HFNO therapy ...simple words using CPAP non invasive therapy over Nasal High Flow Therapy of F&P for standard covid patients in hospitals requiring ventilation support to help with respiratory discomfort or insufficiency

They do have CPAP machines for OSA for home use

[Jaa]

Stock Takes: What's behind Fisher & Paykel's sinking share price?

16 Sep, 2021

By: Tamsyn Parker

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare's recent share price weakness is being blamed on a change in recommendations for Covid treatment out of the United Kingdom.

The UK's National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) indicated CPAP therapy should be the standard care for Covid patients rather than Fisher & Paykel's high-flow nasal oxygen (HFNO).

The findings were based on two controlled trials conducted in the midst of the UK's Covid pandemic which found CPAP therapy reduces the need for intubation in Covid-19 patients but HFNO does not provide any benefit over standard low-flow oxygen therapy.

JP Morgan analysis on the issue noted this was a "surprising and disappointing result for F&P". But said at this stage they did not expect clinical guideline in other jurisdictions to follow the UK's lead until the results of the trial were peer reviewed and published.

"The peer view process is likely to help clarify some concerns with the results including whether the relatively high rate of cross-over between the therapy groups or the lack of a clear protocol for escalating patients to intubation was likely to have had any bearing on the results."

JP Morgan estimate the impact on sales to the UK by F&P as a result of the change in guidance will only be small.

"We estimate sales for the UK account around 4 per cent of F&P's pre-Covid revenues from consumables for the humidification of ventilate patients. Given the small size of UK revenues and the fact the previous NICE guidelines recommended against HFNO for Covid patients, we believe the latest alert is unlikely to have a material impact on group earnings."

Harbour Asset Management's Shane Solly said the situation suggested there could be a bit more consolidation to come in F&P's share price.

"It's more raising a question than saying the treatment is no longer valid." But still he said investors had to take the issue seriously.

Very interesting, thanks for posting.

I will just note that while UK may only be 4% of revenues in itself, it's health recommendations are very influential and could impact global demand.

[alokdhir]

[QUOTE=Jaa;910634]Very interesting, thanks for posting.

I will just note that while UK may only be 4% of revenues in itself, it's health recommendations are very influential and could impact global demand.[/QUOTE

"Given the small size of UK revenues and the fact the previous NICE guidelines recommended against HFNO for Covid patients, we believe the latest alert is unlikely to have a material impact on group earnings."

Hope that clarifies ....IMO it can be seen small positive that new guidelines are not against HFNO but as second choice

[Jaa]

[QUOTE=Jaa;910634]Very interesting, thanks for posting.

I will just note that while UK may only be 4% of revenues in itself, it's health recommendations are very influential and could impact global demand.[/QUOTE

"Given the small size of UK revenues and the fact the previous NICE guidelines recommended against HFNO for Covid patients, we believe the latest alert is unlikely to have a material impact on group earnings."

Hope that clarifies ....IMO it can be seen small positive that new guidelines are not against HFNO but as second choice




I took "HFNO does not provide any benefit over standard low-flow oxygen therapy" as don't use it not use it as a second choice?

[alokdhir]

[QUOTE=alokdhir;910649]

I took "HFNO does not provide any benefit over standard low-flow oxygen therapy" as don't use it not use it as a second choice?

Thats what their random actual user trials have come out with that HFNO has marginal or no advantage over regular hospital oxygen but CPAP helps better but they have noted in their recommendation that CPAP is not easily tolerated by patients also needs advanced training to hospital staff so NHS hospitals can offer both choices where ever feasible , can use HFNO to wean away from CPAP , during meal breaks and also on fatigue of helmet type masks etc . Also note from NICE website that these new updates to their recommendation are dated 2nd Sept 2021 .

Here to add that there are many other reputable institutions recommending HFNO for Covid respiratory support including WHO