Seeka

[BlackPeter]

get the right graph, as encouraging as it looks, it may look like a minor bounce off the bottom,
or maybe not. What do current economic conditions, the sector & competition say ?
Also global economic conditions ? How about weather, labour force, political times etc ?

The primary sector including Kiwi's is very dependent on Mother Nature ..
that's before other factors come into play

You forgot to mention the four horse riders of the apocalypse :p ;

But lets face it - pessimists are apparently as often right as optimists ... however - optimists do live longer - which puts us into the majority :) ;

[dln]

Optimists live a life of constant disappointment, while pessimists experience many pleasant surprises.

[FTG]

Optimists live a life of constant disappointment, while pessimists experience many pleasant surprises.

And then there are the realists.....who can experience disappointment and joy contemporaneously. ;)

[nztx]

You forgot to mention the four horse riders of the apocalypse :p ;

But lets face it - pessimists are apparently as often right as optimists ... however - optimists do live longer - which puts us into the majority :) ;


I'm pleased for that very informative advice BP .. very comforting :)

I hear that there could be a vacancy for new PM coming up needing a fill in at short notice - interested ? ;)

We might have to wait until the last remaining dummy gets spat out in the Head Boy's crib ..

[bull....]

dire news ? but predicted by bull

Kiwifruit growers advised to talk to bank as returns drop and 2023 harvest expected to shrink
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/kiwifruit-growers-advised-to-talk-to-bank-as-returns-drop-and-2023-harvest-expected-to-shrink/EEXUNOVO2ZFJVLEHNJIRQLA54Y/

[winner69]

dire news ? but predicted by bull

Kiwifruit growers advised to talk to bank as returns drop and 2023 harvest expected to shrink
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/kiwifruit-growers-advised-to-talk-to-bank-as-returns-drop-and-2023-harvest-expected-to-shrink/EEXUNOVO2ZFJVLEHNJIRQLA54Y/

That all sounds a bit dire eh bull…

[bull....]

That all sounds a bit dire eh bull…

probably mainly green growers as i believe a lot were break even before the latest zespri payout decrease but i guess the smaller crop will effect all growers. ie seeka too as less thru put

[nztx]

You forgot to mention the four horse riders of the apocalypse :p ;

But lets face it - pessimists are apparently as often right as optimists ... however - optimists do live longer - which puts us into the majority :) ;

but the conservative view may turn out to te right call BP

must be a disconnect between what the market is thinking & what's happening on the ground :)

None of the four horses apparently went through the right gate & saw the field ..

[epower]

Green (HW) crop down significantly this year due to the frost.

Labour and RSE worker numbers seem to be good so will be a battle of efficiency for the pack houses. Overall won’t be a very profitable year.

Disc. I’m a middle manager in a Te Puke site at Seeka’s competitor

[bull....]

Green (HW) crop down significantly this year due to the frost.

Labour and RSE worker numbers seem to be good so will be a battle of efficiency for the pack houses. Overall won’t be a very profitable year.

Disc. I’m a middle manager in a Te Puke site at Seeka’s competitor

thx for update
jan must be one of the wettest on record guess thats no good for the dry matter content in the fruit

[epower]

thx for update
jan must be one of the wettest on record guess thats no good for the dry matter content in the fruit

Yes correct fruit size will be big because of all the water but orchards will struggle to get the dry matter in without sun.

It will be similar to 2021 season where orchards couldn’t pick due to not enough sugar content but fruit was going soft/rotting on the vine.

The gold fruit looks ok because if you’ve got the $ to grow that you’ve likely got frost protection in place, it’s the HW crop that will struggle the most.

Lots of pack houses bulking up with automation and new cool stores which won’t be needed this year so far less income, but no less expenses (other than direct labour costs). Will be a good time to buy in march next year for Seeka once poor full year results come out. With the sector growth I reckon frosts or catastrophe aside 2024 will be the year to buy into Seeka

[bull....]

Looks like some kiwiifruit orchards were wiped out in the BOP , from what i saw on the news last night

[Grimy]

Looks like some kiwiifruit orchards were wiped out in the BOP , from what i saw on the news last night

Yes I saw that picture/video of just the tops of the vines and structures above water. It didn't mention details though.

[Sideshow Bob]

Zespri running a meeting for growers

https://www.usx.co.nz/uploads/paperclip/documents/2763/original/2023-01_CEO_Update_-_Industry_Update_from_Dan_Mathieson_%E2%80%93_OGR_ Forecast_Grower_Town_Hall_.pdf?1674792070

[Grimy]

Michael Franks on TV this morning talking about the orchards. Quite a few development (new) orchards destroyed and established ones damaged.
Also mentioned that a bridge has been washed away that is the only suitable access for some orchards which they would be picking from in 60 days.
They are hoping that something will be put in place by then.
It all sounded rather dire.

[bull....]

Zespri running a meeting for growers

https://www.usx.co.nz/uploads/paperclip/documents/2763/original/2023-01_CEO_Update_-_Industry_Update_from_Dan_Mathieson_%E2%80%93_OGR_ Forecast_Grower_Town_Hall_.pdf?1674792070

growers up in arms

Kiwifruit growers demand explanation over lack of pay
Chief executive Colin Bond said fruit loss for last season's fruit is now at 20 percent, up from the 7 percent previously forecast, an increase of 186 percent.
"Repacking is also up 300 percent - as are quality claims - on 2022, furthermore, our important Japan market has been undersupplied by more than a million trays and has experienced poorer fruit quality than forecast. The situation is unacceptable."
Bond said growers are suffering heavily, and the latest blow is untenable.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/country/483147/kiwifruit-growers-demand-explanation-over-lack-of-pay

[BlackPeter]

growers up in arms

Kiwifruit growers demand explanation over lack of pay
Chief executive Colin Bond said fruit loss for last season's fruit is now at 20 percent, up from the 7 percent previously forecast, an increase of 186 percent.
"Repacking is also up 300 percent - as are quality claims - on 2022, furthermore, our important Japan market has been undersupplied by more than a million trays and has experienced poorer fruit quality than forecast. The situation is unacceptable."
Bond said growers are suffering heavily, and the latest blow is untenable.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/country/483147/kiwifruit-growers-demand-explanation-over-lack-of-pay


Interesting - world has an undersupply of good quality Kiwi fruit ... and bull thinks this means that Kiwi producers will be hammered down.

Did you short international wheat producers at the time the Russians stole the stuff from the Ukraine. Did you?

Wheat supply suffered and guess what - wheat prices went up!

As I see it, there are two options for our Kiwifruit industry:

1) the world stops eating Kiwi fruit and our farmers can turn what is left into juice (unlikely) or
2) prices are going up and we better invest in the production of still more quality fruit :t_up:

I'd assume that our farmers and Seeka are reasonably well equipped to help with this good cause ...

But sure - if everything looks like an unsolvable problem for you, than the only tool you need is a sledge hammer :p ;

[bull....]

Interesting - world has an undersupply of good quality Kiwi fruit ... and bull thinks this means that Kiwi producers will be hammered down.

Did you short international wheat producers at the time the Russians stole the stuff from the Ukraine. Did you?

Wheat supply suffered and guess what - wheat prices went up!

As I see it, there are two options for our Kiwifruit industry:

1) the world stops eating Kiwi fruit and our farmers can turn what is left into juice (unlikely) or
2) prices are going up and we better invest in the production of still more quality fruit :t_up:

I'd assume that our farmers and Seeka are reasonably well equipped to help with this good cause ...

But sure - if everything looks like an unsolvable problem for you, than the only tool you need is a sledge hammer :p ;

actually looks this season going to go down in the history books?? as maybe the worst ever ( except maybe psa ) and with no summer ( sun ) yet looks like maybe a very large amount of fruit wont be export quality im guessing so in answer to your question i guess japan may continue to be under supplied.
As for wheat it trades at price which were before russian invasion
yes maybe the crop will mainly go to juice or rot ?
anyway cant do much about the weather only pray next yr crop doe's not have issues like this yr

anyway on seeka im still sticking to another downgrade to come with no div

[Grimy]

anyway on seeka im still sticking to another downgrade to come with no div

I think that's pretty much a given.

[bull....]

sounds baad ... washed away crops ?

Cyclone Gabrielle: Under-pressure kiwifruit export industry counting the costs
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/cyclone-gabrielle-under-pressure-kiwifruit-export-industry-counting-the-costs/ERF4ODVNEBFERGL5ZDA2HNGSII/

[bull....]

Kiwifruit orchardists in Te Puke could lose millions if truck access isn’t restored to their road before harvesting begins.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/stressful-wait-for-bridge-access-in-te-puke-after-auckland-anniversary-weekend-flooding/H2VMC6R2TVCSNKZU2Z5KEOONTM/

[bull....]

2022 Kiwifruit industry regional contribution:


Northland: $98m
Auckland: $92m
Katikati: $283
Opotiki: $208m
Tauranga: $276m
Te Puke: $1070m
Waihi: $33m
Whakatane: $122m
Waikato: $75m
Poverty Bay: $89m
Hawkes Bay: $39m
Lower North Island: $5m
South Island: $27m

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/new-zealands-2023-kiwifruit-harvest-begins-with-very-rough-start/ZCLWDCYPN5EGRPQ422XGQ3JKGM/

[peat]

yup, nearly all production is in areas recently ravaged by storms.
that Jan rally looked promising but has been eroded completely.
hard to see good times for a while

[percy]

yup, nearly all production is in areas recently ravaged by storms.
that Jan rally looked promising but has been eroded completely.
hard to see good times for a while
'
I woke up this morning thinking why have I not sold my wife's SEK holding after selling mine months ago
Well at the end of the day, the wife no longer holds any SEK shares,however she is now the proud owner of some KMD shares.
I expect KMD will be paying increasing divies which will keep her happy..

[Toddy]

There have been reports of hail events in the Bay of Plenty this evening.

Seeka and it's supplying growers can't catch a break.

[percy]

There have been reports of hail events in the Bay of Plenty this evening.

Seeka and it's supplying growers can't catch a break.

I feel really bad for all in the industry.Last couple of years have been so hard,now it gets even worse.

[BlackPeter]

... actually, the update so far does not sound too bad:

https://announcements.nzx.com/detail/406893


Seeka's core Bay of Plenty kiwifruit growing region was spared the worst of
the weather and was not materially impacted by the event.

However, the Hawke's Bay, Gisborne, Coromandel and Kerikeri regions had
varying degrees of impact, with Hawke's Bay being worst hit. Approximately 5%
of Seeka's kiwifruit supply is grown in the Hawke's Bay region. Seeka will
continue to assess the impact of the cyclone and will update the market if it
identifies a material loss.

Seeka has made an initial assessment of its major assets and has not
identified any significant damage.

Harvest 2023 kiwifruit volumes are expected to be lower than the 2022 harvest
year due to an early season frost, variable bud break and now this cyclone.
Our response to this circumstance includes a reduction to the 2023 capital
expenditure programme and a focus on reducing costs in line with the lower
crop expectation.

[iceman]

... actually, the update so far does not sound too bad:

https://announcements.nzx.com/detail/406893

You’re right. First indications are the orchards have not sustained devastation. I wonder about the roading and other infrastructure though .
Lets hope for the best

[Daytr]

I'm surprised that Northland is only $98M with the amount of Kiwifruit that's been planted around Kerikeri in the last few years. There are competing packhouses other than Seeka so perhaps they don't dominate as much as I would have thought. $2Bln collectively in the BOP!

[na2m1]

A bit of relief for the growers. https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/02/22/farmers-and-growers-to-get-25-million-to-kick-start-recovery/

[Sideshow Bob]

Zespri's update on Gabrielle

https://www.usx.co.nz/uploads/paperclip/documents/2775/original/2023-02_CEO_Update_-_Cyclone_Update_-_FINAL.pdf?1677034075

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/407187

Listed New Zealand produce handler Seeka Limited, with operations in New Zealand and Australia, has today reported its audited results for the year ended 31 December 2022.

$348 million Revenue — up 13% on FY21's $310m

$46.1 million EBITDA — down 19% on FY21's $56.8m (which included $7.6m Psa claim settlement)
$6.5 million Net Profit After Tax — down 56% on FY21's $14.9m

"Seeka and its supplying growers experienced a very difficult year with Covid-19, extreme labour shortages, shipping disruptions, lower kiwifruit yields and poor fruit quality all impacting returns," says Seeka chief executive Michael Franks.

"Harvest 2022 kiwifruit yields were down across the industry, impacting revenues from Seeka's core post harvest business. Kiwifruit storage performance, both onshore and offshore, further impacted returns to Seeka's orchard operations.

"Despite the challenging season, Seeka achieved an increase in revenues to $348 million as we attracted new growers to our business. Packing operations, however, peaked during the Omicron wave and the industry was severely short staffed. Higher labour costs and lower yields impacted margins and contributed to a drop in EBITDA to $46 million and a net profit after tax of $6.5 million.

"Since the harvest, Seeka has fully reviewed its supply chain operations from the orchard to loadout, and is focussed on achieving excellence in fruit handling in 2023. We are anticipating an improved labour supply with a large increase in RSE workers from the Pacific and Malaysia, and a normalisation of travel.

"The completion of a highly-automated packline in the Bay of Plenty, and automation projects at Gisborne and at our largest site near Te Puke will lift post harvest capacity, improve fruit handling and significantly reduce the demand for packhouse labour.
"Since Cyclone Gabrielle we have been inspecting our post harvest sites and supplying orchards to assess the potential impact on harvest 2023. While we did not see any significant damage to our post harvest facilities, we anticipate that the full impact on the crops will remain unknown until the fruit is harvested.

"Seeka's core Bay of Plenty kiwifruit growing region was spared the worst of the weather and was not materially impacted. The Hawke’s Bay, Gisborne, Coromandel and Kerikeri regions had varying degrees of impact, with Hawke’s Bay being worst hit. Approximately 5% of Seeka's kiwifruit supply is grown in the Hawke’s Bay region. We will continue to assess the situation and will update the market if Seeka identifies a material loss.

"Harvest 2023 kiwifruit volumes are expected to be lower than 2022 due to an early season frost, variable bud break and the cyclone. Seeka's response includes a reduction to the 2023 capital expenditure programme and reducing costs in line with the lower crop expectation.

"As Seeka focuses on delivering an excellent service, we continue to implement a range of decarbonisation initiatives that support and health and wellbeing of our communities. Seeka has set a target to become net zero carbon by 2050, and we are installing solar panels on our post harvest facilities and rolling out regenerative horticulture practices. This includes operating our own commercial worm farm that recovers a nutrient-rich soil conditioner from organic packhouse waste."

Dividend

"In this challenging environment the Board has determined that no dividend is payable as Seeka focuses on prudent financial ratios," says Franks.

[Sideshow Bob]

Great to see still in the black, but no surprises that divvy has been canned.

[iceman]

Great to see still in the black, but no surprises that divvy has been canned.

It is a better result than I expected. It's been a very tough couple of years with no end in sight for the industry. Totally prudent not to pay a dividend in the circumstances.

[percy]

It is a better result than I expected. It's been a very tough couple of years with no end in sight for the industry. Totally prudent not to pay a dividend in the circumstances.

Agree.
Much better than I expected too.

[bull....]

commentary pretty much suggest's the next yr results will be impacted by ongoing issues from the frost and cyclone.
so another yr of huge uncertainty likely.
no div is good management with an uncertain yr ahead

[bull....]

pretty massive drop

Kiwifruit exporter Zespri warned its profit may fall as much as 40% as it struggles with fruit quality

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/131348809/zespri-lowers-profit-forecast-on-poor-fruit-quality-confirms-listing-plans

zespri planning to list nzx later this yr

[Sideshow Bob]

NZ industry not the only ones having issues:

https://www.foodnavigator-asia.com/Article/2023/03/14/china-kiwifruit-sector-faces-uncertain-2023-after-heatwave-wreaks-havoc-on-production?utm_source=newsletter_daily&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=15-Mar-2023&cid=DM1063285&bid=65446158

[Toddy]

Add to that Italy/France. Low production due to extreme heat and drought.
Chile. Harvest coming up will be lowest in 10 years due to frosts.

[Jaa]

NZ industry not the only ones having issues:

https://www.foodnavigator-asia.com/Article/2023/03/14/china-kiwifruit-sector-faces-uncertain-2023-after-heatwave-wreaks-havoc-on-production?utm_source=newsletter_daily&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=15-Mar-2023&cid=DM1063285&bid=65446158

Thanks for sharing.

Lots of red flags in there:

- China moving towards increased domestic food supply
- Government financial support for China's Kiwifruit industry
- Chinese companies developing their own varieties and IP

What's the bet NZ trained some of their scientists in our education facilities?

[BlackPeter]

Thanks for sharing.

Lots of red flags in there:

- China moving towards increased domestic food supply
- Government financial support for China's Kiwifruit industry
- Chinese companies developing their own varieties and IP

What's the bet NZ trained some of their scientists in our education facilities?

Red flags?

- China moving towards increased domestic food supply

This is a good thing, and should be fully supported by a anti globalist and populist like you. But apart from that, its good as well from an ecological and food security related perspective - less transport emissions and more diversity.

- Government financial support for China's Kiwifruit industry

Well, yes - most governments think it prudent to support their agriculture in one way or another. Just look at Europe or the States. How do you see our governments support for agricultural research?

- Chinese companies developing their own varieties and IP

Good on them. Competition is great, will increase diversity and competition and improve life for the consumer.

- What's the bet NZ trained some of their scientists in our education facilities?

So what? This is the way humanity is moving forward. Europeans learned from Chinese and Arabs most of their early medical knowledge. Most of our food staples come from the Americas ... populated at that time by people coming from Asia.

Isn't it great if we give some of that knowledge back ... and even to get them to pay for their education here?

[Toddy]

Zespri has offered some pretty good strategies to be involved in the China growth and the European growth.

But under regulation they require the growers to vote on these strategies with 75 percent support required. Everything Zespri ever tries to do gets voted down because only 48 percent of the growers currently hold shares.

It becomes very frustrating for Zespri and the younger generations of Kiwifruit growers when progression is road blocked.

[Jaa]

Red flags?

- China moving towards increased domestic food supply

This is a good thing, and should be fully supported by a anti globalist and populist like you. But apart from that, its good as well from an ecological and food security related perspective - less transport emissions and more diversity.

- Government financial support for China's Kiwifruit industry

Well, yes - most governments think it prudent to support their agriculture in one way or another. Just look at Europe or the States. How do you see our governments support for agricultural research?

- Chinese companies developing their own varieties and IP

Good on them. Competition is great, will increase diversity and competition and improve life for the consumer.

- What's the bet NZ trained some of their scientists in our education facilities?

So what? This is the way humanity is moving forward. Europeans learned from Chinese and Arabs most of their early medical knowledge. Most of our food staples come from the Americas ... populated at that time by people coming from Asia.

Isn't it great if we give some of that knowledge back ... and even to get them to pay for their education here?

Red flags for Seeka and the NZ kiwifruit industry.

Anti-globalist? haha I am very pro free trade and the free movement of people and information.

The problem is China does not practice any of that and prefers to cheat, steal and lie. As soon as their kiwifruit industry is up to volume watch them pull more nonsense health scares (https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202109/1235008.shtml) on NZ kiwifruit to shift demand to local fruit like they did with the far superior Taiwanese pineapples (https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/03/16/taiwan-china-pineapple-war-economic-bullying-democracies-boycott/).

China has already been caught stealing and growing NZ sungold kiwifruit (https://www.rnz.co.nz/programmes/the-detail/story/2018790587/managing-china-s-theft-of-nz-s-sungold-kiwifruit) and since there is no rule of law told NZ to stick it despite our free trade agreement (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/18/kiwi-wars-the-golden-fruit-fuelling-a-feud-between-new-zealand-and-china).

From the original article looks like the NZ industry might be saved a bit by climate change. One can hope that burning all that coal even at the expense of idling green alternative (https://theaseanpost.com/article/chinas-coal-addiction-erodes-climate-goals)s, deforesting the world and concreting everywhere to the point you can't see across the road due to the pollution backfires on the CCP.

[Toddy]

Zespri sent out a grower update yesterday with an early forecast for this season just underway.

The forecast tray numbers are very sobering. They have forecast just over 7,000 trays per ha average for green and mid 11,000 trays per ha for gold.

The packout rates so far have also been below average with skin rub from wind being the main reject.

The cumulative effects (costs and lost production) of the extreme weather events (frost, rain, wind) is starting to become reality.

Grasping at positives, it will be a short selling and storage year which should mean less offshore fruit losses at market. And the harvest and packing should be a cake walk weather permitting.

Seeka, Eastpack etc have been working hard with the growers to control the controllables.

However, it's the outright volume of tray numbers that count for economies of scale to make money in this game.

Fingers crossed that normal weather patterns resume next season.

[bull....]

Zespri sent out a grower update yesterday with an early forecast for this season just underway.

The forecast tray numbers are very sobering. They have forecast just over 7,000 trays per ha average for green and mid 11,000 trays per ha for gold.

The packout rates so far have also been below average with skin rub from wind being the main reject.

The cumulative effects (costs and lost production) of the extreme weather events (frost, rain, wind) is starting to become reality.

Grasping at positives, it will be a short selling and storage year which should mean less offshore fruit losses at market. And the harvest and packing should be a cake walk weather permitting.

Seeka, Eastpack etc have been working hard with the growers to control the controllables.

However, it's the outright volume of tray numbers that count for economies of scale to make money in this game.

Fingers crossed that normal weather patterns resume next season.

thx for update

not looking to good this yr for seeka , like you say next year might be better dependant on weather.
In the mean time i guess all the grower incentive shares will keep flowing onto market with little in the way of buyers to soak them up

[bull....]

Kiwifruit orchard owners struggling to sell
Kiwifruit orchard prices have plummeted 30%, with sales stalling in the prime growing region of Bay of Plenty

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/agribusiness/300843310/kiwifruit-orchard-owners-struggling-to-sell

[BlackPeter]

Kiwifruit orchard owners struggling to sell
Kiwifruit orchard prices have plummeted 30%, with sales stalling in the prime growing region of Bay of Plenty

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/agribusiness/300843310/kiwifruit-orchard-owners-struggling-to-sell


Must be an opportunity to buy a Kiwi fruit orchard at a sensible price :) ... but I recon they are still too dear;

[bull....]

Must be an opportunity to buy a Kiwi fruit orchard at a sensible price :) ... but I recon they are still too dear;

that's what the article was hinting at if you wanted a respectable return of 10% pa prices might need to fall further

[Toddy]

The Green kiwifruit is a low value product. It's not even a viable business in the majority of cases if you are being honest about costs. The value of Green orchards are based on the value of a fully producing gold/red less conversion/license costs.

Zespri having to sell traditional Green fruit erodes the value that goes back to shareholders.

A new variety higher producing Green that is licensed to Zespri is not too far away from trials that will help solve the Green problem.

It's a great investment at these prices and I would not read too much into a real estate agents take on future business returns.

[GTM 3442]

Nothing unexpected, but "ouch" all the same

SEK
19/04/2023 16:01
MKTUPDTE
PRICE SENSITIVE
REL: 1601 HRS Seeka Limited

MKTUPDTE: SEK: Seeka advises market of lower than expected crop volumes

Seeka Limited [NZX:SEK] advises that the early season kiwifruit volumes
packed by the company are well down on estimate reflecting climatic events
including an atypically mild winter followed by a severe late frost, cyclone
and more recently hail. Yields are well down on expectation.

Overall, the company estimates that total volumes could be down by 20% on the
previous year and may result in a forecast operating loss for the current
year. The company has proactively reduced costs, slowed its capital
expenditure programme and continued with its asset reviews.

Seeka advises it is too early to accurately estimate full year guidance and
will update the market on earnings when there is greater certainty of the
current year's financial outlook. Once the harvest is complete, the market
will be updated.

Release ends.

[winner69]

Not as bad as could be? Or a lot worse than expected?

[winner69]

Nobody will be going to ASM tomorrow after that announcement.

Add a loss making F23 year on and this chart looks really sad

[RTM]

Not as bad as could be? Or a lot worse than expected?

Not as bad as I expected...yet......however still an estimate. And then there could be quality issues on top of that.
Painful.

[BlackPeter]

Nobody will be going to ASM tomorrow after that announcement.

Add a loss making F23 year on and this chart looks really sad

Well, not sure. Its a cyclical business ... and if F23 delivers a bottom result, guess how happy 2024 will be :) ;

[bull....]

actually looks this season going to go down in the history books?? as maybe the worst ever ( except maybe psa ) and with no summer ( sun ) yet looks like maybe a very large amount of fruit wont be export quality im guessing so in answer to your question i guess japan may continue to be under supplied.
As for wheat it trades at price which were before russian invasion
yes maybe the crop will mainly go to juice or rot ?
anyway cant do much about the weather only pray next yr crop doe's not have issues like this yr

anyway on seeka im still sticking to another downgrade to come with no div

got the downgrade .... pretty bad announcement and possibly more to come
i reckon they should do a capital raise
eastpak raised money last yr

[winner69]

Well, not sure. Its a cyclical business ... and if F23 delivers a bottom result, guess how happy 2024 will be :) ;

They not a cyclical Peter

Revenues and profits steadily increased for 10 years until last year

We need to come up with another term to give us hope that one day things will be all hunky dory again.

[Toddy]

The kiwifruit industry has never been in such good shape with regard to capital invested in new technologies, graders, coolstores etc. Everyone has been caught out firstly from the covid hangover followed by an extraordinary series of mother nature's furry.

Last week's hail events were just heart breaking.

The vines are in the ground and the numbers will be there once mother nature returns to some kind of normality.

If this happens next season then the post harvest operators cashflows will be very impressive.

In the meantime, may the sun shine for the next 6 weeks to enable an orderly harvest and efficient packing.

[iceman]

The kiwifruit industry has never been in such good shape with regard to capital invested in new technologies, graders, coolstores etc. Everyone has been caught out firstly from the covid hangover followed by an extraordinary series of mother nature's furry.

Last week's hail events were just heart breaking.

The vines are in the ground and the numbers will be there once mother nature returns to some kind of normality.

If this happens next season then the post harvest operators cashflows will be very impressive.

In the meantime, may the sun shine for the next 6 weeks to enable an orderly harvest and efficient packing.

Well said. They've just been having an awful couple of years but things will become right for this very important sector.

[BlackPeter]

They not a cyclical Peter

Revenues and profits steadily increased for 10 years until last year

We need to come up with another term to give us hope that one day things will be all hunky dory again.

Every agricultural company is cyclical ... but obviously, there are other factors impacting on their fortunes as well.

[bull....]

The kiwifruit industry has never been in such good shape with regard to capital invested in new technologies, graders, coolstores etc. Everyone has been caught out firstly from the covid hangover followed by an extraordinary series of mother nature's furry.

Last week's hail events were just heart breaking.

The vines are in the ground and the numbers will be there once mother nature returns to some kind of normality.

If this happens next season then the post harvest operators cashflows will be very impressive.

In the meantime, may the sun shine for the next 6 weeks to enable an orderly harvest and efficient packing.

shame the weather doesnt listen to anyone ... so we all live in a world of uncertainty now due to climate so what risk factor should we apply to valuations

[BlackPeter]

shame the weather doesnt listen to anyone ... so we all live in a world of uncertainty now due to climate so what risk factor should we apply to valuations

Well, it appears the best idea for you might be to keep all your money in cash and wait for inflation to reset it ;) ; No money, no worries - isn't that, what they say :p ;

Everybody else might remember that people so far always found a way to recover after tough times ... and if things recover then it is better to own the company rather than trying to buy it when everybody else tries to do that as well ...

[Sideshow Bob]

Their ASM preso

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SEK/410222/392938.pdf

[BlackPeter]

Their ASM preso

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SEK/410222/392938.pdf

Did sit through it.

Chair sounded somewhat sober, CEO added a bit of optimism. Clearly - they had a couple of terrible years (for reasons they couldn't control), but it sounds as well they are well prepared for the future. Better processes, significant investment into packing machines and geographic (Australian share growing) as well as product diversification (new fruit sorts).

Unless people will stop eating fresh fruit - this is a company delivering something people want and need, and it is currently available at bargain prices. Deep value game? Roll on 2024 ...

Discl: holding :) ;

[glennj]

Did sit through it.

Chair sounded somewhat sober, CEO added a bit of optimism. Clearly - they had a couple of terrible years (for reasons they couldn't control), but it sounds as well they are well prepared for the future. Better processes, significant investment into packing machines and geographic (Australian share growing) as well as product diversification (new fruit sorts).

Unless people will stop eating fresh fruit - this is a company delivering something people want and need, and it is currently available at bargain prices. Deep value game? Roll on 2024 ...

Discl: holding :) ;

I've dabbled in a small way just recently. My thoughts were buy after a glitch while the share price is depressed. I've started paying a bit more attention to this share lately.

[winner69]

Glad Chair was somewhat sober BP

Wouldn’t want a Chair showing signs of too much kiwifruit liquer would we

[BlackPeter]

Glad Chair was somewhat sober BP

Wouldn’t want a Chair showing signs of too much kiwifruit liquer would we

You are talking about intoxicated furniture, do you?

Bloody language - just so imprecise ...

[winner69]

You are talking about intoxicated furniture, do you?

Bloody language - just so imprecise ...

Should have used that ChatGPT thingie. …..might have said Chair was somewhat sombre like being at a funeral

[bull....]

see they had to get relief on there bank convenents :scared: should do a cap raise as they say they want to reduce debt ( guess the bank told them too ? ) provide more liquidity to shares as well

[BlackPeter]

Should have used that ChatGPT thingie. …..might have said Chair was somewhat sombre like being at a funeral

It might. However - I am wondering whether your interpretation of "sober" might tell us a bit about your past :) ?

Oxford dictionary defines "sober" as:
1. not affected by alcohol; not drunk.
2. serious, sensible, and solemn.

[BlackPeter]

see they had to get relief on there bank convenents :scared: should do a cap raise as they say they want to reduce debt ( guess the bank told them too ? ) provide more liquidity to shares as well

Yawn - that's old news .... you used to hammer on that one already at the time they disclosed it some time ago. Find something new to hammer on, will you?

[winner69]

They said at ASM that they discussed a cap raise the day before but because of current share price they wouldn’t be doing one

[Snoopy]

You are talking about intoxicated furniture, do you?

Bloody language - just so imprecise ...


The ironic thing is, the changing of the well worn word 'chairman' to 'chair' to reflect 'sexual equality' is a crock anyway.

The 'man' bit of chair'man' never referred to a man in the first place. It is derived from the latin for 'hand'. In french (a latin family language) the word for hand is 'main', which when it found its way into English in 'chairman' lost the 'i'. So what 'chairman' actually means is someone who leads a board of people 'with a guiding hand', with no implied sexual connotations at all. Thus describing a woman who heads a board as a 'chairman' is the perfectly correct English expression to use. It is the thing she is sitting on that is the 'chair'. To describe a person as a 'chair' is a perversion of the English language.

SNOOPY

[winner69]

Good post Snoops …..suppose a Chairperson then is even worse than using Chair

[Sideshow Bob]

The ironic thing is, the changing of the well worn word 'chairman' to 'chair' to reflect 'sexual equality' is a crock anyway.

The 'man' bit of chair'man' never referred to a man in the first place. It is derived from the latin for 'hand'. In french (a latin family language) the word for hand is 'main', which when it found its way into English in 'chairman' lost the 'i'. So what 'chairman' actually means is someone who leads a board of people 'with a guiding hand', with no implied sexual connotations at all. Thus describing a woman who heads a board as a 'chairman' is the perfectly correct English expression to use. It is the thing she is sitting on that is the 'chair'. To describe a person as a 'chair' is a perversion of the English language.

SNOOPY

Nice one Snoop Dog.

Sometimes wonder whether the goal is to be correct, or just to be 'seen' to be correct.....

[bull....]

Smallest green kiwifruit crop in 20 years means some growers won't make money

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/132011013/smallest-green-kiwifruit-crop-in-20-years-means-some-growers-wont-make-money

[BlackPeter]

Smallest green kiwifruit crop in 20 years means some growers won't make money

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/132011013/smallest-green-kiwifruit-crop-in-20-years-means-some-growers-wont-make-money


Green Kiwifruit are rarely profitable.

Anyway - good to see currently Kiwifruit specials in the shops. Our growers love to milk consumers when times are good for them, but this means they have no large home base.

The result is they now need to discount even a smaller harvest in the supermarkets.

My wife's grandma (herself a successful farmer) used to say "only dumb farmers don't look after their own people". But what would she know?

[Filthy]

Smallest green kiwifruit crop in 20 years means some growers won't make money

bottom of the cycle I reckon. going to start accumulating.

[bull....]

bottom of the cycle I reckon. going to start accumulating.

brave person , didnt know you could tell the bottom of the cycle with weather

[Filthy]

brave person

yep bit of a punt. but they do say that fortune favors the brave don't they? seeka a pretty well run company; just needs a bit of sunshine eh bull.

[Jaa]

Confirmation in this article From Zespri and Eastpac that volumes are down 20% in line with Seeka's forecast.

Bad 2023 kiwifruit harvest sees some growers visiting bank manager to stay afloat (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/rotorua-daily-post/news/bad-2023-kiwifruit-harvest-sees-some-growers-visiting-bank-manger-to-stay-afloat/JNQ5FJCSKFB4ZA5EMXP2EUDUZ4/)

If a grower has an unhappy bank manager, selling some Seeka shares must seem a good option. Plenty of shares were issued to growers in part payment for the last few years acquisitions.

[bull....]

no end in sight to the stock down trend

[bull....]

:scared: shocker

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/413419

:scared:

half there debt due for renewal jan 24 only 3 mil in bank

cash issue time ?

[kiora]

No worries
El Nino is coming back
"It appears that almost every forecaster around the globe is predicting we will be going into the El Niño phase later this year."
https://www.interest.co.nz/rural-news/122575/el-ni%C3%B1o-coming-and-given-higher-background-temperatures-guy-trafford-assesses

[Jaa]

Seeka has completed its New Zealand kiwifruit harvest packing a total of 29.8m class 1 trays, compared to 42.4m in the previous corresponding period.
...
Seeka’s regional market share is comparable between years

That is a decline of 30%, big change from the 20% forecast which is also the industry average. Seeka obviously more exposed to hard hit regions.

[Jaa]

Seeka has completed its New Zealand kiwifruit harvest packing a total of 29.8m class 1 trays, compared to 42.4m in the previous corresponding period.
...
Seeka’s regional market share is comparable between years

That is a decline of 30%, big drop from the 20% forecast which is what Eastpac and Trevelyan’s Pack & Cool (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/rotorua-daily-post/news/bad-2023-kiwifruit-harvest-sees-some-growers-visiting-bank-manger-to-stay-afloat/JNQ5FJCSKFB4ZA5EMXP2EUDUZ4/) suffered. Seeka obviously more exposed to hard hit regions.

[bull....]

interesting read in announcement by PLP in regard to there kiwifriut orchard

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/413618

A report has been received recently on the Northland based kiwifruit orchard held by the Private Land and Property Portfolio (the wholesale fund into which the PLP invests). The report provided an independent assessment on the orchard including the maturity of the vines. Their assessment is that due to the adverse weather conditions earlier in the year (which had an impact on the management of the orchard), it is unlikely to reach its full productive capacity until later than originally expected.

how many orchard's in seeka portfolio similar ?

[Jaa]

interesting read in announcement by PLP in regard to there kiwifriut orchard

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/413618

A report has been received recently on the Northland based kiwifruit orchard held by the Private Land and Property Portfolio (the wholesale fund into which the PLP invests). The report provided an independent assessment on the orchard including the maturity of the vines. Their assessment is that due to the adverse weather conditions earlier in the year (which had an impact on the management of the orchard), it is unlikely to reach its full productive capacity until later than originally expected.

how many orchard's in seeka portfolio similar ?

They have disposed a lot of their Northland orchards while locking in the supply. Will definitely affect future supply through their pack houses and cool stores.

[Toddy]

Eastpack packed 33.5m trays v 50 m if it was going to be a normalized year. Forecast loss before tax of 2m to 4m.

The Eastpack business model less complex than Seeka, and has invested heavily in modernization in recent years.

The Seeka business modernization is well behind in this regard.

Next seasons volumes should ensure reasonable profits. However, Seeka really needs to refresh and simplify its business plan to make the most of future opportunities.

[bull....]

Eastpack packed 33.5m trays v 50 m if it was going to be a normalized year. Forecast loss before tax of 2m to 4m.

The Eastpack business model less complex than Seeka, and has invested heavily in modernization in recent years.

The Seeka business modernization is well behind in this regard.

Next seasons volumes should ensure reasonable profits. However, Seeka really needs to refresh and simplify its business plan to make the most of future opportunities.

eastpack notes issue a while back for capital raising and investing in upgrades to handle increasing volumes of kiwifruit was not well supported they even had too attempt to fill the shortfall by going back too everyone asking again if they were sure they didnt want to invest. So maybe not in full agreement about eastpk better positioned than seeka probably just similar positioned
anyway after the losses this yr and the not so good capital raising how much off the money raised will end up used as working capital vrs investment ? a issue i raised earlier on the thread in regards to the cap raising

[BlackPeter]

Next seasons volumes should ensure reasonable profits. However, Seeka really needs to refresh and simplify its business plan to make the most of future opportunities.

Interesting - what would you suggest?

Personally I would think that more diversification and in-built resilience (i.e. being able to deal with bad weather events) would help, but not quite sure whether this would simplify their business plans?

[Toddy]

Seeka and Eastpack are in different cycles with their modernization. You can't compare the funding models 100 percent because Eastpack is totally grower owned. So Eastpack is forced look at other funding alternatives.

Seeka got caught out because they purchased assets at the top of the investment cycle when money was cheap. The assets they purchased were not what they thought they were. This lead to a record fruit loss for their growers the previous season. Then we went into a low fruit volume season.

The hangovers are significant. Losses on the leased orchards will take time to fillter through from a cashflow perspective as a large chunk of the losses are sitting on their books with the growers.

To hold onto their grower base Seeka offered discounted medium term fixed price packing contracts. That's right, fixed.

Seeka is cutting staff, restructuring internally, and cutting costs.

With fruit volume increases next season the cashflows should be impressive. But the unknown question is to what extent the Seeka overheads are excessive.

The question. What would I do. I would divest all not performing assets and increase the capital expenditure significantly into IT and robotics. Not cut capital expenditure as Seeka has done.

Disc. I hold Eastpack and Seeka shares.

[bull....]

Seeka and Eastpack are in different cycles with their modernization. You can't compare the funding models 100 percent because Eastpack is totally grower owned. So Eastpack is forced look at other funding alternatives.

Seeka got caught out because they purchased assets at the top of the investment cycle when money was cheap. The assets they purchased were not what they thought they were. This lead to a record fruit loss for their growers the previous season. Then we went into a low fruit volume season.

The hangovers are significant. Losses on the leased orchards will take time to fillter through from a cashflow perspective as a large chunk of the losses are sitting on their books with the growers.

To hold onto their grower base Seeka offered discounted medium term fixed price packing contracts. That's right, fixed.

Seeka is cutting staff, restructuring internally, and cutting costs.

With fruit volume increases next season the cashflows should be impressive. But the unknown question is to what extent the Seeka overheads are excessive.

The question. What would I do. I would divest all not performing assets and increase the capital expenditure significantly into IT and robotics. Not cut capital expenditure as Seeka has done.

Disc. I hold Eastpack and Seeka shares.

was the person who wrote the lease agreement a builder lol
yea i can see how the profit sharing costs will come thru over time
agree some of the returns on assets are not very good but i would cut costs first like they are doing then re- access non performing assets or look at the people managing them to see if there fit for purpose and the reason for non - purformance then get back on the job of cap investment

[bull....]

Seeka Completes Banking Refinancing
Seeka has extended 66% of the facilities to 31 January 2025 and 34% to 31 January 2026, as well as obtaining a waiver for the net leverage ratio and interest cover ratio banking covenants for the 30 June 2023 and 31 December 2023 test periods. The 30 June 2024 and 31 December 2024 banking covenants have been set on a “step down” basis to enable Seeka to reach its long-term covenants of 3.25x for the net leverage ratio and 2.00x for the interest cover ratio. Seeka remains firmly committed to reducing debt and building headroom into its banking covenants.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/413976

So im presuming no dividend's for quite a while perhaps even none next yr based on the loss forecast second half yr and the need to get debt down as per banking arrangement

[iceman]

Seeka Completes Banking Refinancing
Seeka has extended 66% of the facilities to 31 January 2025 and 34% to 31 January 2026, as well as obtaining a waiver for the net leverage ratio and interest cover ratio banking covenants for the 30 June 2023 and 31 December 2023 test periods. The 30 June 2024 and 31 December 2024 banking covenants have been set on a “step down” basis to enable Seeka to reach its long-term covenants of 3.25x for the net leverage ratio and 2.00x for the interest cover ratio. Seeka remains firmly committed to reducing debt and building headroom into its banking covenants.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/413976

So im presuming no dividend's for quite a while perhaps even none next yr based on the loss forecast second half yr and the need to get debt down as per banking arrangement

One would hope so. It would be prudent given the shocking year SEK has had and the ongoing weather events causing havoc in the industry, that SEK suspends dividends for several years and pays down debt.

[BlackPeter]

Seeka Completes Banking Refinancing
Seeka has extended 66% of the facilities to 31 January 2025 and 34% to 31 January 2026, as well as obtaining a waiver for the net leverage ratio and interest cover ratio banking covenants for the 30 June 2023 and 31 December 2023 test periods. The 30 June 2024 and 31 December 2024 banking covenants have been set on a “step down” basis to enable Seeka to reach its long-term covenants of 3.25x for the net leverage ratio and 2.00x for the interest cover ratio. Seeka remains firmly committed to reducing debt and building headroom into its banking covenants.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/413976

So im presuming no dividend's for quite a while perhaps even none next yr based on the loss forecast second half yr and the need to get debt down as per banking arrangement

Good on them for getting this potential issue out of the way. Agree with your assessment for the dividend, but would not have expected anything different.


Seriously - who would want a company under pressure to pay dividends?

[Toddy]

You have to love the banks. From the glass towers they have come up with 'sustainability' lending.

Maybe Seeka and the kiwifruit growers should be allowed to claim carbon credits for all of those Kiwifruit tree/vines planted.

[whatsup]

You have to love the banks. From the glass towers they have come up with 'sustainability' lending.

Maybe Seeka and the kiwifruit growers should be allowed to claim carbon credits for all of those Kiwifruit tree/vines planted.

I have been asking that for a couple of years but no one can give an answer one way or the other .

[kiora]

"Under the current regulations, sadly you cannot register orchard species, vines and crops for carbon credits. This puts all kinds of delicious trees out of the running, including kiwifruit, olives and avocados. Tip: Most trees that grow to 5m are eligible, provided they're woody."
https://www.carboncrop.nz/post/is-my-forest-eligible-for-carbon-credits-under-the-ets#:~:text=Under%20the%20current%20regulations%2C %20sadly,%2C%20provided%20they're%20woody.

[bull....]

Gold kiwifruit growers lose fight to exclude lucrative licences from property valuations



https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/132534356/gold-kiwifruit-growers-lose-fight-to-exclude-lucrative-licences-from-property-valuations

[RTM]

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/country/494510/another-warm-winter-could-mean-less-kiwifruit-growers-worried

“She said last year the region's kiwifruit had a poor flowering because of the warm temperatures, and this year the lack of chilling had been even worse.”

I wonder how much cold is needed ? Down to 4C this morning, same for a few days. Northland.
Can anyone report on the Bay of Plenty ?
Worrying for the industry if this can’t be resolved.

[kiora]

https://www.metservice.com/rural/regions/bay-of-plenty/locations/te-puke/past-weather

[Sideshow Bob]

Less than 2 years....

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/415519

[peat]

I nibbled at $2:45 on Friday, not that many but seemed like price point to add given the chart shape.
Lo and behold someone else thought so too up 8% at close. My purchase has a long term view obviously but its nice to find a price support level.
14723

[mshierlaw]

Result tomorrow, company has nothing to say. Share price has nothing to write home about.

Looking forward to reading result tomorrow, until then hands in pockets.

DISC holding :scared:

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/416865

Listed New Zealand produce company Seeka, reports its unaudited interim results for the six months ended 30 June 2023.
- $212.7m Revenue – down 14% on six months to June 2022 previous corresponding period (pcp)
- $36.4m EBITDA – down 26% on pcp
- $13.6m NPBT – down 55% on pcp

[bull....]

no div's till debt convenants met ... when's that ?

[BlackPeter]

no div's till debt convenants met ... when's that ?

Analysts seem to think in FY 2025, but hey - Seekas outlook for 2024 sounds sort of promising as well.

A lean company well prepared for the next boom cycle in an essential industry - starts to look interesting for contrarian investors while it is cheap. NTA: $6.01 per share ...

Anybody else might just wait until FOMO is driving them to buy the stock when its dear again.

[peat]

Interim report says "Seeka has implemented a captive insurance structure which places more cover directly to the international markets to help contain the ongoing increases in insurance costs", which interested me because I work in insurance but didnt know what that meant. Apparently its when you create a subsidiary insurance company to take on your risk. Effectively self insuring .... so reducing regular outgoings but having more risk.

I've always said "horticulture is risky" but one would think insurance (not self-insurance) would help to make it less so. So I do wonder about this strategy. But then their insurance is probably very expensive and its often difficult to recover losses under claims. I have faith in the management so expect they know what they're doing.

A loss in the full year though :mellow:

[bull....]

i missed the virtual online meeting ... anyone tune in? must not have been good ? share price under pressure

[Grimy]

I forgot too until about 2.40 and then couldn't connect. May have been over by then.

[Toddy]

In about a month's time we will be able to tell with more certainty what the potential season kiwifruit crop will look like numbers wise.

So best to wait before calling the bottom on the current share price.

[Toddy]

The kiwifruit Industry was hoping that the weather God's would lend a helping hand.

The latest weather predictions for the summer with a strong El nino is not ideal.


Hot dry weather on the East Coast will mean a smaller fruit profile (size). So the industry prediction of a 'wall' of fruit' may not eventuate this coming season.

[bull....]

The kiwifruit Industry was hoping that the weather God's would lend a helping hand.

The latest weather predictions for the summer with a strong El nino is not ideal.


Hot dry weather on the East Coast will mean a smaller fruit profile (size). So the industry prediction of a 'wall' of fruit' may not eventuate this coming season.

probably why the stock price is taking another leg lower.

[BlackPeter]

The kiwifruit Industry was hoping that the weather God's would lend a helping hand.

The latest weather predictions for the summer with a strong El nino is not ideal.


Hot dry weather on the East Coast will mean a smaller fruit profile (size). So the industry prediction of a 'wall' of fruit' may not eventuate this coming season.

Actually - if you go back in Seekas annual reports, you might notice that FY2016 (i.e. the year in which the 2015/2016 El Nino played out) was a bumper year with EPS (62 cts/share for FY2016) more than twice the normal average (27 cents in 10 year average).

Time to buy some more Seeka?

[Toddy]

I'm looking at it from the grower angle. Smaller size means less efficiency from harvesting costs through to packing charges etc. That is, more fruit is required to fill up a box.
Remember, Seeka offered their growers a fixed price packing charge contract. So there is little wiggle room for any slippages.

I hope that I'm completely wrong and that the predicted weather does not eventuate.

[bull....]

Actually - if you go back in Seekas annual reports, you might notice that FY2016 (i.e. the year in which the 2015/2016 El Nino played out) was a bumper year with EPS (62 cts/share for FY2016) more than twice the normal average (27 cents in 10 year average).

Time to buy some more Seeka?

2019 was a dry yr and ended up just like toddy says

[BlackPeter]

2019 was a dry yr and ended up just like toddy says

Interesting to note that Seeka had in FY 2020 the second best earnings in the last 10 years (52 cents per share). FY 2016 (the El Nino year) was the best.

[Toddy]

The Industry is automated now. So Seeka will have plenty of record breaking seasons to come. I'm personally worried with how the extreme weather pattern forecasts will play out.. Seeka and their growers need a few things to go their way.

The exchange rate trend will definitely help.

[bull....]

yep the extreme would be the current growing regions not being suitable anymore

[Lease]

The Industry is automated now. So Seeka will have plenty of record breaking seasons to come. I'm personally worried with how the extreme weather pattern forecasts will play out.. Seeka and their growers need a few things to go their way.

The exchange rate trend will definitely help.

"Winter conditions and El Niño weather pattern support a rebound in kiwifruit yields in 2024 −Stark contrast to 2023 growing season".

The above is from Seeka latest interim results presentation. Looks El Niño is good for Seeka and other kiwifruit growers.

[Toddy]

Frank's didn't know the latest forecast when the interim was released.

Slight El nino compared to two years of rain is positive for sure.
Strongest in 80 years would be disastrous for NZ inc.

[bull....]

under $2 soon ?

[Toddy]

I can't really see it going to much lower. It represents great value at these levels if you can stick the shares in the bottom drawer for the next couple of years.

[bull....]

I can't really see it going to much lower. It represents great value at these levels if you can stick the shares in the bottom drawer for the next couple of years.

the pesky growers selling there incentive shares will keep driving the price down

[BlackPeter]

under $2 soon ?

I suppose you are already buying, aren't you?

Remember - Seekas two best years in the last decade have been when El Nino was setting on ...

I hear its coming back this year.

[Toddy]

There was more in today's Herald about record breaking weather about to set in.
Records for all of the wrong reasons.

Blackpeter. I'm not sure drawing a correlation between droughts and the profitability of an Agi Industry Company would give you consistent outcomes.

[BlackPeter]

There was more in today's Herald about record breaking weather about to set in.
Records for all of the wrong reasons.

Blackpeter. I'm not sure drawing a correlation between droughts and the profitability of an Agi Industry Company would give you consistent outcomes.

Look, I notice that some people just love to cover everything with black sludge, no matter what the data. Maybe bull found a partner for his hobby? Congratulations!

If however you try to do some relevant analysis, than I'd recomend you find out under which conditions Kiwi fruit grow best ... and then you check, whether the orchards Seeka is dependant on comply with these conditions. Hint: Kiwifruit don't like frost during flowering, they don't like hail or extreme wind (as most other plants as well) but they do like sunshine if it comes with sufficient water (ideally not as too much rain). So, yes, not too much to do against hail and frost (though unlikely when hot) - other than regional diversification, for wind you can plant shelterbelts - and irrigation is essential (not just in extremely dry years).

Actually - I did this check (re irrigation) some years ago for Seekas Australian orchards, and over there I found out that they are 100% irrigated and have sufficient water reserves.

I haven't done it for NZ, but I assume that most of the orchards here do have shelterbelts and irrigation as well. Kiwifruit are - like grapevine - a very high value fruit, i.e. it would make absolutley no sense in not to invest into irrigation and protection.

So - here is an opportunity for you: Find out (like ask Seeka) and report back instead of keep doing what you obviously love to do (spread black sludge). We all love to see positive and constructive contributions.

[Toddy]

Disclosure. I grow Kiwifruit and have Zespri, Eastpack and Seeka Shares.

[BlackPeter]

Disclosure. I grow Kiwifruit and have Zespri, Eastpack and Seeka Shares.

Interesting - I didn't realize that they grow Kiwifruit in London, UK?

But anyway ... given that you now disclosed your expertise it should be easy for you to better qualify the risks and opportunities of the coming El Nino season and global warming in general for the industry:

What are the ideal growing conditions for Kiwi Fruit?
What risks do you see for the season (and I suppose given global warming many more seasons to come) given the predicted El Nino conditions?
What - in your view should companies like Seeka do to manage these risks (other than roll up their toe-nails)?
What opportunities do you see for the industry with increasing temperatures?
How do you explain that the two last El Nino seasons gave Seeka the best earnings in the last decade - and why do you think this season will be different?

Just out of interest - in which region do you grow your KiwiFruit? - am I right to assume its not in London, UK?

Discl: growing Kiwifruit as well :p (though admittedly not very successful on our mid Canterbury lifestyle block) ... and hold SEK;

[Azz]

Interesting - I didn't realize that they grow Kiwifruit in London, UK?

But anyway ... given that you now disclosed your expertise it should be easy for you to better qualify the risks and opportunities of the coming El Nino season and global warming in general for the industry:

What are the ideal growing conditions for Kiwi Fruit?
What risks do you see for the season (and I suppose given global warming many more seasons to come) given the predicted El Nino conditions?
What - in your view should companies like Seeka do to manage these risks (other than roll up their toe-nails)?
What opportunities do you see for the industry with increasing temperatures?
How do you explain that the two last El Nino seasons gave Seeka the best earnings in the last decade - and why do you think this season will be different?

Just out of interest - in which region do you grow your KiwiFruit? - am I right to assume its not in London, UK?

Discl: growing Kiwifruit as well :p (though admittedly not very successful on our mid Canterbury lifestyle block) ... and hold SEK;

BlackPeter, with your "expertise" it should be easy for you to better qualify:

How much are you down on this one?

[winner69]

Does Gregory Tomlinson of Oceania / Heartland fame still hold a sizeable chunk of Seeka

[percy]

Does Gregory Tomlinson of Oceania / Heartland fame still hold a sizeable chunk of Seeka

According to both Seeka's last annual report and The NZ Companies office Tomlinson Group are the largest shareholding with 323,3827 shares a total of 7.7%.

[winner69]

According to both Seeka's last annual report and The NZ Companies office Tomlinson Group are the largest shareholding with 323,3827 shares a total of 7.7%.

That’s a good sign eh Percy

Probably has a few kiwifruit in his garden or amongst the vines in his many vineyards

[percy]

For you W69.
Interesting noting where Simon Limmer was before he became ceo of Silver Fern Farms.
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2309/S00171/new-zealand-wine-company-indevin-group-appoints-simon-limmer-as-ceo.htm

[winner69]

For you W69.
Interesting noting where Simon Limmer was before he became ceo of Silver Fern Farms.
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2309/S00171/new-zealand-wine-company-indevin-group-appoints-simon-limmer-as-ceo.htm

Thanks percy

[Rawz]

Just had a look of the recent financials and seems to me SEK have a bit of a debt issue…. Could be a cap raise or asset sales if it’s another tough season

[Sideshow Bob]

For you W69.
Interesting noting where Simon Limmer was before he became ceo of Silver Fern Farms.
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2309/S00171/new-zealand-wine-company-indevin-group-appoints-simon-limmer-as-ceo.htm

And the chairman of Indevin is....??

[percy]

And the chairman of Indevin is....??

Greg Tomlinson,who is also The Chairman and major shareholder in Heartland Group Ltd,as well as being a director and major shareholder in Oceania Healthcare Ltd.

[winner69]

Greg Tomlinson,who is also The Chairman and major shareholder in Heartland Group Ltd,as well as being a director and major shareholder in Oceania Healthcare Ltd.

I think Greg still has a chunk of Argenta …..even after selling a decent chunk of it for zillions a couple of years ago

But his main love at the moment is his race horses

[Toddy]

A bit of an update of where we are at with the current season. It's as positive as you can be when dealing with mother nature.

I attended an Eastpack meeting on Tuesday. When I speak of Eastpack then basically assume that the same basic principals apply to Seeka as they are a similar size. Please also consider that it's early days in the season. .

The bud break is slightly above average. This will more than likely transpire into healthy volumes of fruit this season and a significant increase on last season.

These volumes will lead to healthy cash flows and healthy profits.

Eastpack has signalled the following
Grower rebates
Share buybacks to treasury stock. Then cancelling dry shareholders and over shared growers ( greater than 6 times production)
Dividends

The initial capital requirements forecast for building new coolstore capacity has been scaled back as the growth forecasts in fruit volume are looking less lumpy.

Seeka will signal growth along the same lines (Zespri forecasts).

If I had more cash I would buy Seeka shares as they really represent excellent value at these levels. I'm very long Eastpack and as a Cooperative our share trading is less liquid. However, I'm extremely confident that this a great investment.

As a grower, if we had any concerns then it would be with Zespris ability to stick to a very tight shipping and sales schedule.

[iceman]

Thanks Toddy for the update from the coalface. Much appreciated

[Sideshow Bob]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SEK/419505/404554.pdf

CEO buying a handful more.

[Ricky-bobby]

Yeh thanks toddy, appreciate the update. Did the say anything re rate of sale? And if the sale price on shelf is holding up? For wine, these are both under pressure… with wineries being concerned about being empty befor the next vintage.

[Toddy]

The fruit has been well received by the customer with no major issues in market. The sale prices have been holding up well according to Zespri.

[bull....]

thx for update toddy

[iceman]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SEK/419505/404554.pdf

CEO buying a handful more.

No. These are an inheritance from an estate, not bought.

[Getty]

Another positive.

A company I'm privy to previously supplied 130000 XYZs annually to the kiwifruit industry.

This year's orders are for 180000.

A signal of growth.

[ralph]

Really appreciate your update , optimism & info Toddy & I hope the kiwi Industry Improves Thank you .
With that in mind how do you think now that we are in a confirmed el nino what effect will that have on the harvest in your opinion as I am concerned about the quality in hot dry summers as said previously.

[Toddy]

When the big dry arrives then the fruit growth slows. The dryer it gets the smaller the fruit.
Once it stops raining then the ground moisture levels dry off reasonable quickly.
Because the moisture levels are currently still high I expect the weather to impack the second half of the growing season.
The impact will be on the average size of the fruit I.e a smaller fruit profile

Eg a big fruit profile year for gold would be size 25 ( meaning 25 fruit per tray)
A small profile year would be 30.

This can move the total crop numbers around say by 10 percent.

There are a percentage of orchards on irregation, especially the new established orchards.

On the Hill in Tepuke you cannot drill bores any more due to resource consents.

It's tough working with mother nature, but I would not swap it back to my old job of Treasury Accounting and spending my days on spreadsheets and in meetings.

[BlackPeter]

When the big dry arrives then the fruit growth slows. The dryer it gets the smaller the fruit.
Once it stops raining then the ground moisture levels dry off reasonable quickly.
Because the moisture levels are currently still high I expect the weather to impack the second half of the growing season.
The impact will be on the average size of the fruit I.e a smaller fruit profile

Eg a big fruit profile year for gold would be size 25 ( meaning 25 fruit per tray)
A small profile year would be 30.

This can move the total crop numbers around say by 10 percent.

There are a percentage of orchards on irregation, especially the new established orchards.

On the Hill in Tepuke you cannot drill bores any more due to resource consents.

It's tough working with mother nature, but I would not swap it back to my old job of Treasury Accounting and spending my days on spreadsheets and in meetings.

cheers for sharing your industry knowledge. May I add some questions :) ?


1)
I understand the point with smaller Kiwifruit when its hot and dry.

Can you comment on fruit quality under these conditions? With other crops this could mean a bit smaller, but as well better taste (sweeter). Would this be the case with Kiwifruit as well?

2) You said a percentage of orchards are on irrigation (and I assume they have the smaller fruit problem to a lesser degree - though they still will feel the heat and the lower humidity).

Do you know - or can you hazard an estimate - what this percentage on irrigation might be for Seekas NZ clients?

I investigated some time ago for the Seeka (operated) orchards in Australia, and for them it was 100 % on irrigation.

[whatsup]

cheers for sharing your industry knowledge. May I add some questions :) ?


1)
I understand the point with smaller Kiwifruit when its hot and dry.

Can you comment on fruit quality under these conditions? With other crops this could mean a bit smaller, but as well better taste (sweeter). Would this be the case with Kiwifruit as well?

2) You said a percentage of orchards are on irrigation (and I assume they have the smaller fruit problem to a lesser degree - though they still will feel the heat and the lower humidity).

Do you know - or can you hazard an estimate - what this percentage on irrigation might be for Seekas NZ clients?

I investigated some time ago for the Seeka (operated) orchards in Australia, and for them it was 100 % on irrigation.

As a owner of a orchard since 1980, I can comment about BoP growing condition.

Dry weather usually only kicks in for 6 weeks at the most in the BoP and usually from mid to late Jan.
The critical growth period for K F is from flowering until early March so any dry only has a marginal effect on their growth, its the S W winds that has a drying effect , bearing in mind that the shelter effect and the canopy cover that shades the crop.

We once did a hand auger test to see how moist the ground was down 6-7 mts and found the ground at the depth had retained a fair level of moisture bearing in mind that the roots go down more than 10 mts in the volcanic BoP soils, that is one reason that FK F grows so well in that area.
They can have smaller fruit years but that can be the results of other factors, ie fruit over loading.

[iceman]

Stakeholder update today chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SEK/420267/405482.pdf

As a terrible 2023 appears in the rear view mirror for the industry, it has a much better outlook for 2024 with El Nino setting n, with hopefully very different and more industry favourable conditions.
Dipped my toes in again after no holding for a couple of years,.

[IAK]

Bumper crop and better prices forecast for kiwifruit growers https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/country/502962/bumper-crop-and-better-prices-forecast-for-kiwifruit-growers

[bull....]

Bumper crop and better prices forecast for kiwifruit growers https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/country/502962/bumper-crop-and-better-prices-forecast-for-kiwifruit-growers

might be waiting a while for a div , debt levels need to be reduced first

[bull....]

China slowdown: Zespri gears up for tough task selling big jump in export volume to weaker wallets
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/china-slowdown-zespri-gears-up-for-tough-task-selling-big-jump-in-export-volume-to-weaker-wallets/AFU5D5N2ZZFL7KSXKEGKDB2VQM/

[Toddy]

It's a frustrating industry to be involved in at times. Every time Zespri wants to move forward and make the necessary structure changes to survive in this modern world it has to go to a grower vote under the Kiwifruit Regulations.
A 75 percent yes vote is required.
Due to the aging of the growers the vote is normally unsuccessful. 30 percent always say No because they can.

Growers are not marketers but under the Regulations are required to vote on Marketing and offshore issues well and truly outside of their expertise.

[whatsup]

It's a frustrating industry to be involved in at times. Every time Zespri wants to move forward and make the necessary structure changes to survive in this modern world it has to go to a grower vote under the Kiwifruit Regulations.
A 75 percent yes vote is required.
Due to the aging of the growers the vote is normally unsuccessful. 30 percent always say No because they can.

Growers are not marketers but under the Regulations are required to vote on Marketing and offshore issues well and truly outside of their expertise.

Dont forget that the sweet Kfruit goes to Asia incl China and the green goes to Europe so not all eggs in one basket, a very good split as the Asians have sweet teeth while the Europeans prefer the flavour of the green fruit.

[Getty]

It's a frustrating industry to be involved in at times. Every time Zespri wants to move forward and make the necessary structure changes to survive in this modern world it has to go to a grower vote under the Kiwifruit Regulations.
A 75 percent yes vote is required.
Due to the aging of the growers the vote is normally unsuccessful. 30 percent always say No because they can.

Growers are not marketers but under the Regulations are required to vote on Marketing and offshore issues well and truly outside of their expertise.

Similar to the single desk regime of the NZ Apple and Pear board.
There were arguments for and against, but once the free marketeers got their way, there was a lot of carnage

10 acre blocks planted in apples sold for little more than the value of the house on site, then production was dented as the folk who seized the opportunity to buy some land with a flash house and sheds for their vintage cars ot hot rods, were not interested in, or did not have the expertise to carry on orcharding.

[Toddy]

Having a single desk makes sense in a small country like NZ. But having a single desk and making the most of the advantages it offers are two different things.

Zespri could make the growers alot of money and spread their risk. A good example is that shareholders money is invested with Govt Plant and Food in partnership to grow better varieties.
However, for Zespri to be able to earn revenue off these varieties offshore they need a growers vote ( including non shareholders).

It gets voted down, no money is made and growers then rely on the weather to be kind in Nz.

This is where the pressure will eventually come from that puts the single desk at risk. Zespri is all set up and has the licensing rights except for Green.

[thedrunkfish]

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/506213/higher-shipping-costs-fears-red-sea-attacks-will-soon-hit-kiwis-in-the-pocket

Man this industry cant catch a break. Hopefully this situation will improve before mid-March.

[iceman]

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/506213/higher-shipping-costs-fears-red-sea-attacks-will-soon-hit-kiwis-in-the-pocket

Man this industry cant catch a break. Hopefully this situation will improve before mid-March.

Freight rates and shipping times are already significantly up due to this madness. As you say, hopefully this is a temporary situation but I can't see it being sorted in 2-3 months. UK & USA started bombing the Houthis yesterday so who knows what this will look like in the short term !

[thedrunkfish]

Freight rates and shipping times are already significantly up due to this madness. As you say, hopefully this is a temporary situation but I can't see it being sorted in 2-3 months. UK & USA started bombing the Houthis yesterday so who knows what this will look like in the short term !

Yes driven by the wider geopolitical issues in the region and that looks like it will get worse before it improves.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iwvTqXHChtA

[Sideshow Bob]

Freight rates still nothing like Covid levels and would see mainly affecting EU exports - and as mentioned Zespri go via Panama. But still, don't want it to go on too long....

[dibble]

Freight rates still nothing like Covid levels and would see mainly affecting EU exports - and as mentioned Zespri go via Panama. But still, don't want it to go on too long....

Article in ??paper??(cant recall where) a few days back about panama canal issues too, something to do with drought and not enough fresh water to flush the locks. If both canals freeze up that's not ideal for this hemisphere. Or quaterisphere.
One would have thought, with 2 oceans of seawater at their disposal, they might be able to conjur up some solution with a wind turbine pump or whatever but hey ho. No canals between here and that bastion of commercial stability, China.

[Southern Lad]

Article in ??paper??(cant recall where) a few days back about panama canal issues too, something to do with drought and not enough fresh water to flush the locks. If both canals freeze up that's not ideal for this hemisphere. Or quaterisphere.
One would have thought, with 2 oceans of seawater at their disposal, they might be able to conjur up some solution with a wind turbine pump or whatever but hey ho. No canals between here and that bastion of commercial stability, China.

See this CNBC article discussing the impact on the Panama Canal drought - Panama Canal drought moves Maersk to start using land bridge for cargo (cnbc.com) (https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/11/panama-canal-drought-moves-maersk-to-start-using-land-bridge-for-cargo.html)

[bull....]

niwa updated there weather outlook and were saying no longer as hot and dry more rain now. seeka were saying the previous niwa weather forecast was good. does the new one with more rain still good ?

[Toddy]

The main part of the growing season is over. The crop estimates are for a large crop. There still could be weather events to come, as alway, but everything is definitely as positive as it could be.

Seeka should make impressive revenue from packing the crop.

[peat]

I'm now wondering if we've seen a low in November 23
A double bottom in Sept and November (near enough) and a strong bounce following that with consolidation.
No one knows... but I have added on some down days for long term.

[iceman]

I'm now wondering if we've seen a low in November 23
A double bottom in Sept and November (near enough) and a strong bounce following that with consolidation.
No one knows... but I have added on some down days for long term.

Im also cautiously optimistic and bought back in with a small parcel in November.
The current season is allowing for some optimism so far, with good fruit volumes, but also still some risks including weather. Now we need a long dry spell.

[Toddy]

Seeka and Eastpack are going to clean up with record volumes needed to be packed.

For us growers this will be offset with the per tray price pulling back into the eight dollar per try range for gold.

[Southern Lad]

Seeka and Eastpack are going to clean up with record volumes needed to be packed.

Zespri announcement this morning on resignation of CEO Dan Mathieson references "... the industry poised to deliver one of its largest ever crops to meet growing demand for Zespri Kiwifruit around the world". See 65aec9271507a31d3f928959.pdf (usx.co.nz) (https://prod-trade.usx.co.nz/api/file/65aec9271507a31d3f928959.pdf)

Another indication that FY24 should be good for Seeka Post Harvest and Kiwifruit growing operations as it recovers from the very low volume FY23.

[Toddy]

Dan is probably over the non sayer growers. All of the major strategies that Dan put forward to preserve and grow the Industry were voted down under the 75 percent rule by the growers.

[bull....]

The main part of the growing season is over. The crop estimates are for a large crop. There still could be weather events to come, as alway, but everything is definitely as positive as it could be.

Seeka should make impressive revenue from packing the crop.

cheers for update. i have a small holding brought recently on expectations of improved yr ahead

[Balance]

Perfect storm for avocado growers :

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/country/507646/perfect-storm-for-avocado-growers-during-dismal-season-industry-body

[Toddy]

Perfect storm for avocado growers :

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/country/507646/perfect-storm-for-avocado-growers-during-dismal-season-industry-body

The writing has been in the wall for a very long time. The Australian volumes coming on stream with earlier crop maturity is starting to crush New Zealand growers.

I wouldn't call it a storm. I would call it a 'trend'.

[bull....]

Kiwifruit set to bounce back after two tough seasonsCraigs say looking good in the article

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/primary-sector/kiwifruit-set-to-bounce-back-after-two-tough-seasons

[Southern Lad]

See Media Release today from Zespri on expected 2024 harvest levels:

Zespri preparing to return to strong growth in kiwifruit supply in 2024 (https://www.zespri.com/en-NZ/publications/newsroomdetail/Zespri-preparing-to-return-to-strong-growth-in-kiwifruit-supply-in-2024)

[Toddy]

Harvest is about to get underway.

What I am hearing is that Seeka are looking at packing around 45m trays. Fruit is looking good in the main growing region of the Bay of Plenty. Fruit size is really small in Hawkes Bay and
Gisbourn.

So it's looking good. This is the first season where the packhouse can test all of the improvements with a full crop.

There is an excess of 2000 job applicants wanting work in the packhouse. I cannot confirm this number but you get the idea of what's happening with the workforce in New Zealand.

The post harvest operators are looking forward to packing this crop and rewarding both the grower through efficient packing and storage, and the shareholders for providing the capital.

Im personally with Eastpack, but hear from friends and read plenty about Seeka.

[Sideshow Bob]

Thanks Toddy.

Lets hope for a good season - they need it.

[Sideshow Bob]

Thanks Toddy.

Lets hope for a good season - they need it.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/426972

Audited results for year ended 31 December 2023 (FY23)

Listed New Zealand produce handler Seeka Limited, with operations in New Zealand and Australia, has today reported its audited results for the year ended 31 December 2023. Loss before tax of $21.0 million is in line with the previously announced guidance of $20 million to $25 million loss before tax.

$48.7 million gross profit — down 29% on FY22's $68.3m

$26.0 million EBITDA — down 44% on FY22's $46.1m

($14.5) million net loss after tax — down from $6.5m net profit FY22

"The 2023 harvest was difficult right across the horticultural sector, as a warm wet winter, cyclones and hail significantly impacted orchards in New Zealand and Australia", says Seeka chief executive Michael Franks.

"Yields were down across the industry, with Seeka only handling 30 million trays of class 1 New Zealand kiwifruit in 2023, compared with 42 million in 2022.

"While 2023 volumes were materially down, Seeka’s operational performance between the orchard and point of sale was excellent. More than 99% of the kiwifruit we packed for our growers was delivered on time and in spec to the marketer Zespri, and the quality of our fruit supplied to the international consumer was the best in the industry.

"The large drop in kiwifruit volumes, however, reduced Seeka's revenue for the year to $301 million, down from $348 million in 2022. This contributed to a full year loss of $14.5 million after tax in 2023, compared to a $6.5 million net profit in 2022.

"Seeka responded to the seasonal downturn by suspending dividends and reducing overheads. This included establishing a captive insurance structure to slow the impact of rising insurance costs. Having completed a number of post-harvest automation projects, Seeka also reduced its capital expenditure.

"In June our bankers provided a new $201 million Sustainability-linked Loan facility that included covenant waivers that allow Seeka to focus on restoring profitability.

"Total assets remained stable at $549 million, with $388 million invested in property, plant and equipment. Following a sustained period of investments, Seeka has a post-harvest infrastructure capable of handling more than 50 million trays of kiwifruit, which is forecast to efficiently handle short-term growth from our supplying growers.

"Seeka is focused on restoring profitability in 2024 and reducing debt, while maintaining the excellent operational performance achieved in 2023 for its growers and customers. Having invested in capacity and automation, Seeka is containing capital spend to maintenance, risk reduction, and automation.

"The La Niña weather system which impacted the last two seasons has now ended, and orchards are benefiting from far better growing conditions. Kiwifruit vines are holding high levels of fruit, and the industry's forecast of record volumes will allow Seeka to realise the full efficiencies of our highly-automated post-harvest facilities.

"The 2024 Kiwiberry harvest and sales programme is nearing completion and the first RubyRed kiwifruit crops are being packed. We have the capacity, systems and personnel to handle much higher volumes, and are looking forward to delivering an excellent and profitable service to our growers and the markets", says Franks.

Release ends.

[Filthy]

couldn't find any guidance; just this outlook statement in the analyst pack. guess it means doing our own estimate/sums...

The 2024 kiwifruit crop looks better, industry forecast at 193m -
Class 1 trays FOB− Hayward volumes high
SunGold back to a normal average

Australian crop looks excellent -
Access to new spray programme
Wet summer, no drought, crop estimate up

Operationally ready -
Labour supply improved
Infrastructure set for 50m+ kiwifruit trays

[Toddy]

If you do the numbers based off the 45m trays I mentioned you should be in the range.
The capacity gap to the 50m will be filled as the new plantings come on stream over the next couple of years.
Seeka was trying to secure more fruit off growers at other post harvest facilities but it is a race to the bottom if yiou offer too large packing discounts.

Im picking no guidance because the numbers are so impressive that if you said them out loud the market would not believe you.

I have seen the Eastpack forecasts based on just under 50m trays. We are talking about record cashflows and profits.

The new technology that all post harvest operators have been investing millions of dollars in are going to surprise everyone in a good way.

It's always difficult to talk so positively about the horticulture industry as we are always bitten somewhere. Having said that, all of the hard work and difficult lessons of years gone by can and will reward everyone when we get it right.

[iceman]

couldn't find any guidance; just this outlook statement in the analyst pack. guess it means doing our own estimate/sums...

The 2024 kiwifruit crop looks better, industry forecast at 193m -
Class 1 trays FOB− Hayward volumes high
SunGold back to a normal average

Australian crop looks excellent -
Access to new spray programme
Wet summer, no drought, crop estimate up

Operationally ready -
Labour supply improved
Infrastructure set for 50m+ kiwifruit trays

Yes no guidance whatsoever. I suppose they can be forgiven for that given last year's disasters, at least until the harvesting has started. But I'm sure they're glad they have no firmly put 2023 behind them and if all goes well, should have a stellar 2024. If they can fully utilise their capacity, we could be in for a much needed excellent year.

[Toddy]

Just some insight into the forecast tray numbers and why they reasonably accurate now days.

1. Zespri and the post harvest operators have monitor orchards and send out regular updates. Fruit estimate size, maturity and numbers etc.
2. Each individual orchard has monitoring bays which are counted by the PHF to give fruit per sqm estimate.
3. More and more growers are using the computer scan
technology. A quad bike drives up and down every row in the orchard and takes a photo scan. This technology is 98 percent accurate. I was scanned two weeks ago.

The data is then adjusted for estimated rejects and size to come up with a tray number.

Hopefully we will see the end of the manual count system in coming years as the scan is more accurate and the cost is becoming very competitive with manual counting.

[bull....]

result as expected ... should be better next yr. no forecast anyway heres my guess

revenue 350m
NPAT 15M

Div ? who know's as focus is on debt levels

[Filthy]

Div ? who know's as focus is on debt levels

yep, would prefer for them to hold off on the div and just apply to debt first. think the market will react better to that.

[Toddy]

yep, would prefer for them to hold off on the div and just apply to debt first. think the market will react better to that.

Also a bit tricky to work out because we don't know how many growers took up the fixed price packing contracts a year or so back.

[bull....]

banking convenant is 3.5x net leverage so they need to reduce debt bit morre before div's can be paid . maybe net debt around 130m or higher if they can get ebit up closer to 50m

[Toddy]

Just back from the Eastpack pre harvest update.

There were alot of big numbers and challenges talked about.

This was the scariest number from an NZ on the ground point of view and a direct quote.
Eastpack have hired approx 4000 staff for the harvest. There were 25,000 applicant's received. Yes, 25,000.

What this means I do not know. Immigration influx, back packers, locals desperate for work. Probably all of the above.

[Toddy]

Eastpack is the largest post harvest operator in the Industry and expects to pack 52 million trays this harvest.

Can Zespri ship and sell this crop. Odds are against things going to plan with such large volumes.

[Sideshow Bob]

Zespri expecting to export 193m trays this season.

Ruby Red tripling in volume compared to last season, to about 1m trays.

https://prod-trade.usx.co.nz/api/file/65ee1cd3678f0772dfebb451.pdf

[bull....]

Zespri expecting to export 193m trays this season.

Ruby Red tripling in volume compared to last season, to about 1m trays.

https://prod-trade.usx.co.nz/api/file/65ee1cd3678f0772dfebb451.pdf

big season

It is the first of 63 charter vessels Zespri expects to use this season to ship around half of the expected 193 million trays, or almost 695,000 tonnes, of Green, SunGold and RubyRed Kiwifruit to more than 50 countries. That’s up from the 51 charter vessels used last season.

https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2403/S00189/first-zespri-kiwifruit-charter-of-2024-sets-sail-for-china.htm

first ship just left with 700000 trays onboard to give you an idea of what the extra ships means

[Toddy]

Quick harvest update.

This season harvest was off to a great start as fruit maturing early, especially in Poverty Bay.
Seeka has had more than the Industry share to date to pack. This helps later on with storage as the early fruit is shipped earlier.

Around 13 million gold trays have been packed to date. The actual trays packed are 6 percent down on the crop estimate.
Therefore trim the total numbers by 6 percent. Roughly 3 million trays each less for Seeka and Eastpack.

The weather is fine, and I could hear the packhouse unloading trucks in Te puke to well after midnight. Kept me awake. This is unusual, but working hard I guess.

Zespri also updated the forecast range for this selling season. They are confident of setting the lower level at $10 per tray to $11.50.

So far everything sounds like it is going to plan, and Seeka will benefit from the higher volumes of early fruit.

[bull....]

Kiwifruit exports bounce back with forecast record crop and higher hectare returns
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/kiwifruit-exports-bounce-back-with-forecast-record-crop-and-higher-hectare-returns/6QVNWVKGWFH7PMP7IKJ6GVV25U/

[bull....]

The crops are yielding some of the best results they have seen across Tirofruit's orchards in Opotiki, Te Kaha, and Omaio. The combination of favorable weather conditions and diligent orchard management has contributed to high yields and excellent fruit quality

https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2404/S00099/kiwifruit-harvest-promising-despite-challenging-economy.htm

[smpl]

Hi all. I wish to make a play on Ruby Red. What is Seeka's make up to this crop? Are there any competitors who also grow this crop and are publicly traded?

[Toddy]

Hi all. I wish to make a play on Ruby Red. What is Seeka's make up to this crop? Are there any competitors who also grow this crop and are publicly traded?

Zespri and the Industry are not happy with Ruby Red. It is going to be replaced with one of the many better Reds that are currently being trialed.

Zespri will issue licenses for any new Red varieties in the future.

Red makes up a very small amount of Seeka's current revenue.

[bull....]

potential very bullish v bottom forming on the mthly .... 3.05 would be the top of the sides i reckon. april 18th ?

[bull....]

tuned into agm , very informative and hats off too oliver asked some very good questions.

[Grimy]

I knew it was on today, but forgot to tune in. How was the overall tone?

[Mr Slothbear]

Anyone have a recording of the AGM or know where i could find one?

[Sideshow Bob]

Anyone have a recording of the AGM or know where i could find one?

I'd be interested too. I logged into the meeting through the Seeka website but while can join meeting (that has finished) can't replay it.

Annoying they don't have a recording - even if just available for a couple of days.

Meeting slides here - http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SEK/429797/417009.pdf

[peat]

potential very bullish v bottom forming on the mthly .... 3.05 would be the top of the sides i reckon. april 18th ?

technically the 1st bullish butterfly (in red) failed But the second smaller one in green succeeded (but has now played out) but would indicate very strong support at $2.50

But I have 4% of my portfolio in this already and my mantra is that "Horticulture is risky" which I know to be true from my own gardening lol so I cant really play this further.

15060

[bull....]

technically the 1st bullish butterfly (in red) failed But the second smaller one in green succeeded (but has now played out) but would indicate very strong support at $2.50

But I have 4% of my portfolio in this already and my mantra is that "Horticulture is risky" which I know to be true from my own gardening lol so I cant really play this further.


15060

failed to gain traction on the AGM meeting. maybe because they said no div's for quite a while as debt way to high. sellers came out of the woodwork after AGM. anyway i agree with your % of portfolio as its dependant on weather more so theses days and has high debt levels ... say no more its a higher risk stock at the moment.

[Toddy]

Why did they deem it necessary to hand out shares to growers ( including avo) in the current environment.

Are they scared of Growers jumping to Eastpack etc.

I have asked several Seeka growers this question. They all agree that it came out of nowhere and doesn't make sense. But will take the handout.

[bull....]

stock tanking after AGM , see as well as the 2.5m grower stock issued we had 600k odd management shares as well. are they selling ?

[Toddy]

The gold crop is all in apart from the last few orchards.
Volumes are slightly down on forecast.

My take on it is that it just sux to be invested in anything on the NZX today.

It's one of those days when you think 'why bother'.

[Toddy]

And the Zespri gold license tender was yesterday. The revenue from the tender was something like 100 mil, half of the previous year. Basically meaning come August the Zespri dividend will be half.
Some growers would have been banking on the dividend income.

[bull....]

The gold crop is all in apart from the last few orchards.
Volumes are slightly down on forecast.

My take on it is that it just sux to be invested in anything on the NZX today.

It's one of those days when you think 'why bother'.

might be why the stocks heading to lows again eh ? might go under 2 this time ?

[Toddy]

might be why the stocks heading to lows again eh ? might go under 2 this time ?

Eastpack AGM tonight in Tauranga but I'm in Auckland so won't be going.

SEK. Apart from volumes being lower than forecast (rough guess 15 percent max), Then I don't think there is anything to see here. The season gold harvest has gone like clockwork.

Green. There is quite competitive pricing for Packing so the margins are alot smaller. Maybe that is having an impact but I dont know the dollars.

I personally think it's the higher for longer interest rates and lack of NZX and grower capital that is reflected in the sp.

It's a bargain at these prices for sure. If Eastpack had the capital (or Atleast wanted to take on the debt risk) then I'm sure they would be making a merger or takeover offer at these levels. But the current Board doesn't really have the skill set to dream up such grand plans.

[Toddy]

The Zespri mouse on the ship has ended up costing the growers 34 million dollars as the entire cargo has been dumped.

That's 30 cents per tray cost to the growers.

That's what you call bad luck. Alot of hard work dumped.

Zespri is acting a bit weird on this one. Informed us that it's been turned into bio fuel, the fruit that is, not the mouse.

[winner69]

The Zespri mouse on the ship has ended up costing the growers 34 million dollars as the entire cargo has been dumped.

That's 30 cents per tray cost to the growers.

That's what you call bad luck. Alot of hard work dumped.

Zespri is acting a bit weird on this one. Informed us that it's been turned into bio fuel, the fruit that is, not the mouse.

More on the mice

Reputational damage

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/the-country/news/mice-on-zespri-ship-over-a-million-trays-of-kiwifruit-to-be-destroyed/B5VIQVH2HVEQTDWP5RSKMQXUBA/

[Nevl]

The Zespri mouse on the ship has ended up costing the growers 34 million dollars as the entire cargo has been dumped.

That's 30 cents per tray cost to the growers.

That's what you call bad luck. Alot of hard work dumped.

Zespri is acting a bit weird on this one. Informed us that it's been turned into bio fuel, the fruit that is, not the mouse.


Not really. The shipment is insured, and they will get a payout which is under negotiation, probably close to the full amount. There is no damage to reputation as nothing has been sold from that ship And customers actually know **** happens so not a big drama. Also given the size of the crop losing 1% of the crop makes it a bit easier for the Europe team and their targets.

[Toddy]

Not really. The shipment is insured, and they will get a payout which is under negotiation, probably close to the full amount. There is no damage to reputation as nothing has been sold from that ship And customers actually know **** happens so not a big drama. Also given the size of the crop losing 1% of the crop makes it a bit easier for the Europe team and their targets.

Cool. Getting full insurance. Where did you hear that?

[Nevl]

Cool. Getting full insurance. Where did you hear that?

All vessels are fully insured for their crops. The insurer was the one that insisted on attempting to save the shipment but the customers said they would not buy the fruit even if it was checked. So now they will negotiate. Zespri pays a ton in insurance costs and they would not like to lose that business. Its a negotiation but at minimum Zespri would demand the full costs and lost profits from the million trays.

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/431648

Seeka Limited [NZX:SEK] advises that the kiwifruit industry will be able to continue to use hydrogen cyanamide (Hi-Cane) in New Zealand. The benefits from using Hi-Cane are significant. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) decision-making committee released their decision on the reassessment of Hi-Cane today.

The decision keeps the existing approvals, adjusts the rules for its use, updates its hazard classifications and removes the suggestion of a 10-year horizon for the use of the product. The new rules for use take immediate effect. Seeka is supportive of the proposed adjustments, which align to Seeka’s current operating procedures as a responsible orchard manager and grower.“Seeka takes its environmental responsibility very seriously and is confident the decision achieves a good outcome for kiwifruit growers without compromising the environment.

We applaud the process and outcome,” says Seeka chief executive Michael Franks.A summary of the changes and information on the background of the reassessment can be found on the EPA webpage: https://www.epa.govt.nz/public-consultations/decided/hydrogen-cyanamide-reassessment/

[Toddy]

Double edged sword. Of course no one wanted hicane banned. But if it was it would have led to exciting times with Zespri license release of new varieties etc all bought forward. More farm land converted, more work for everyone and the death of the old green kiwifruit.

But hey, BAU it is.

[peat]

Cool. Getting full insurance. Where did you hear that?

theres a lot happening in the background

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.farmersweekly.co.nz/digital-edition/?utm_source=AgriHQ&utm_campaign=c957236374-FW+Preview+31.05.2024&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_-c957236374-%5BLIST_EMAIL_ID%5D

Page 26 - interesting article about MPac, one of their competitors.

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2406/S00086/kiwifruit-growers-produce-record-breaking-crop.htm?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Friday+7+Ju ne+2024

Kiwifruit Growers Produce Record Breaking Crop

New Zealand’s 2024 kiwifruit harvest is coming to an end
Ideal weather and labour availability allows for orderly kiwifruit harvest
New Zealand economy awaits market returns from exported kiwifruit

[Toddy]

Eastpack is leasing coolstorage space from Seeka to get the final crop in. They are looking at over 50 million trays packed for the season, which should translate into a record profit.

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/432512

Seeka Limited [NZX:SEK] is pleased to announce a significant increase in the number of class 1 kiwifruit trays packed this harvest season.

In total 43.0 million trays were packed compared to 29.8 million last year. This 44% increase is a pleasing recovery after two very challenging years impacted by weather events.

The additional volume was efficiently processed by our facilities and well within our capability. Availability of labour and automation improvements both contributed to a smooth and effective packing season. Shipping is proceeding well.

The impact of the Zespri shipment infested by rodents is not expected to materially impact earnings.

While the increased trays packed is a signal of a return to profitability, it is too early to accurately predict the financial outcome and to be able to provide reliable financial guidance.

The Company expects to update the market later in the year. Seeka remains focused on maximising operational earnings, debt reduction, and achieving financial leverage targets.

The Company thanks all growers, suppliers, contractors and staff for their efforts in concluding the 2024 New Zealand kiwifruit harvest.Release ends.

[iceman]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/432512

Seeka Limited [NZX:SEK] is pleased to announce a significant increase in the number of class 1 kiwifruit trays packed this harvest season.

In total 43.0 million trays were packed compared to 29.8 million last year. This 44% increase is a pleasing recovery after two very challenging years impacted by weather events.

The additional volume was efficiently processed by our facilities and well within our capability. Availability of labour and automation improvements both contributed to a smooth and effective packing season. Shipping is proceeding well.

The impact of the Zespri shipment infested by rodents is not expected to materially impact earnings.

While the increased trays packed is a signal of a return to profitability, it is too early to accurately predict the financial outcome and to be able to provide reliable financial guidance.

The Company expects to update the market later in the year. Seeka remains focused on maximising operational earnings, debt reduction, and achieving financial leverage targets.

The Company thanks all growers, suppliers, contractors and staff for their efforts in concluding the 2024 New Zealand kiwifruit harvest.Release ends.

Good to see a good recovery from the last 2 disastrous years. But only back on track to where we were a few years ago and the target of 50 million packed trays still a wee while of. Then need to focus on debt repayment and keep dividends suspended for a couple of years at least.

[kiwikeith]

Good to see a good recovery from the last 2 disastrous years. But only back on track to where we were a few years ago and the target of 50 million packed trays still a wee while of. Then need to focus on debt repayment and keep dividends suspended for a couple of years at least.

Yes that was my reading of "Seeka remains focused on ... debt reduction and achieving financial leverage targets" Seems another way of saying dividends will be suspended for a while yet.

[bull....]

yep i reckon easy a yr or more of no div's to get down this based on current earnings

[Grimy]

As long as they have a few good years and can pay down debt I'm happy enough to wait.

[RTM]

As long as they have a few good years and can pay down debt I'm happy enough to wait.

Me to. However. I'm not altogether comfortable that we won't see more adverse weather events, maybe at increased frequencies.
Hmmmm....same applies to Scales.

[Jaa]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/432512

Seeka Limited [NZX:SEK] is pleased to announce a significant increase in the number of class 1 kiwifruit trays packed this harvest season.

In total 43.0 million trays were packed compared to 29.8 million last year. This 44% increase is a pleasing recovery after two very challenging years impacted by weather events.

The additional volume was efficiently processed by our facilities and well within our capability. Availability of labour and automation improvements both contributed to a smooth and effective packing season. Shipping is proceeding well.

The impact of the Zespri shipment infested by rodents is not expected to materially impact earnings.

While the increased trays packed is a signal of a return to profitability, it is too early to accurately predict the financial outcome and to be able to provide reliable financial guidance.

The Company expects to update the market later in the year. Seeka remains focused on maximising operational earnings, debt reduction, and achieving financial leverage targets.

The Company thanks all growers, suppliers, contractors and staff for their efforts in concluding the 2024 New Zealand kiwifruit harvest.Release ends.

Interesting to compare guidance to previous years.

On 21 June, 2023 Seeka announced:


Seeka Limited [NZX:SEK] has undertaken a comprehensive assessment of forecast
full year earnings. The group result for the full year to 31 December 2023 is
likely to be a net loss before tax of between $20 million and $25 million.
This forecast reflects much lower than anticipated New Zealand kiwifruit
volumes. Seeka has completed its New Zealand kiwifruit harvest packing a
total of 29.8m class 1 trays, compared to 42.4m in the previous corresponding
period.

And on 22 June 2022:


The harvest is now completed, with the total industry Hayward volumes down on
the previous year by approximately 17% and down on the current year industry
estimate by 10%. This follows the SunGold national crop being down on
estimate by 10.2%.

Seeka's post-harvest volumes have followed the lower than expected industry
volumes, and in addition there was crop damage from high winds in late 2021
in the Opotiki region. Total Hayward conventional volumes of 14.4m trays
reflect a 21.5% reduction in average per hectare yields, year on year, and
SunGold conventional volumes of 26.0m reflect a reduction in average per
hectare yields of 10.5%.

Post-harvest earnings from handling kiwifruit represents a significant
proportion of Seeka's earnings, and the volumes handled in the current year
are much lower than anticipated. The total volume of class 1 kiwifruit
handled in 2022 is expected to be 42.4m trays. While that is ahead of
Seeka's 2021 post-harvest volumes, it includes the volume from acquisitions
made since the 2021 season.

Seeka advises that its Australian business has performed well and has
delivered earnings improvement on last year.

Due to the lower SunGold and Hayward volumes, the Company expects full year
net profit before tax to be in the range of $9.0m to $11.0m.

Why were they able to give finance guidance the last two years (in more abnormal conditions) in June but not this year?

[Sideshow Bob]

Aussie season gone well.

They mention they'll update the market "later in the year" with financial guidance.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/432690

[Toddy]

Interesting to compare guidance to previous years.

On 21 June, 2023 Seeka announced:



And on 22 June 2022:



Why were they able to give finance guidance the last two years (in more abnormal conditions) in June but not this year?

I thinks it because Seeka has learned it's lesson with giving financial forecast updates too early in the season.

Seeka had a shocker with fruit coolstore issues a couple of seasons ago. Not all costs could be passed back to growers on repack etc because they would lose too many supplier growers. And they also have a component of income dependent on the sales price of fruit in the market due to the leased orchards and managed orchard contracts.

It's best to play it safe and keep the market informed like they have, and release financial information when there is more certainty over storage, fruit in market sale and fruit loss data.

[Jaa]

I thinks it because Seeka has learned it's lesson with giving financial forecast updates too early in the season.

Seeka had a shocker with fruit coolstore issues a couple of seasons ago. Not all costs could be passed back to growers on repack etc because they would lose too many supplier growers. And they also have a component of income dependent on the sales price of fruit in the market due to the leased orchards and managed orchard contracts.

It's best to play it safe and keep the market informed like they have, and release financial information when there is more certainty over storage, fruit in market sale and fruit loss data.

Thanks for your thoughts Toddy.

Lots of risks in the business huh. Interesting they don't seem to have much pricing power over the growers. Not being able to pass on costs and needing to issue incentive shares, which growers then dump on the market when they need cash. Are Eastpack eating their fruit salad?

[Toddy]

Eastpack have a grower update in a week or so.

In the past the post harvest operators cut each other's throat to gain supply. But those days are ending as fruit volume grow and it's becoming more expensive to build the coolstorage.

Eastpack was full this year and had to get help from Seeka. Eastpack was more expensive to pack with as the growers were not looking around due to their good storage performance in recent years. The storage performance means that you receive more incentives from Zespri and you have less fruit loss.

Seeka is set up to succeed and the volume capacity in the coolstores will be taken in the short term. Once there is no space for growers to move around in the industry (first time this will have ever happened) then the Packing Companies have the pricing power.

Eastpack is still a Cooperative which is a case study in itself!. All as this realyy means is that growers have to cough up chunks of capital everytime they expand. And we have some pretty nasty debates. I would rather we give up some control and list or merge with Seeka.

In the meantime I think the Eastpack shareholders will be up for a good dividend this year.

That's a hint on what I think Frank's is trying to say about where Seeka ended up without exciting the market.

[bull....]

reckon seeka needs to reduce debt at least 60m to fall within convenants range

[iceman]

Eastpack have a grower update in a week or so.

In the past the post harvest operators cut each other's throat to gain supply. But those days are ending as fruit volume grow and it's becoming more expensive to build the coolstorage.

Eastpack was full this year and had to get help from Seeka. Eastpack was more expensive to pack with as the growers were not looking around due to their good storage performance in recent years. The storage performance means that you receive more incentives from Zespri and you have less fruit loss.

Seeka is set up to succeed and the volume capacity in the coolstores will be taken in the short term. Once there is no space for growers to move around in the industry (first time this will have ever happened) then the Packing Companies have the pricing power.

Eastpack is still a Cooperative which is a case study in itself!. All as this realyy means is that growers have to cough up chunks of capital everytime they expand. And we have some pretty nasty debates. I would rather we give up some control and list or merge with Seeka.

In the meantime I think the Eastpack shareholders will be up for a good dividend this year.

That's a hint on what I think Frank's is trying to say about where Seeka ended up without exciting the market.

Great post Toddy thank you.

[kiwikeith]

"Following the successful completion of the kiwifruit harvests in New Zealand and Australia Seeka Limited [NZX:SEK] advises that it has completed its financial forecasts for the year ending 31 December 2024 indicating an expected net profit before tax in the range of $15 million to $19 million. This compares to a net loss before tax of $21 million in the prior year.This financial guidance reflects the significant recovery of kiwifruit volumes and expected net earnings of all Seeka’s business in New Zealand and Australia. The company remains focussed on maximising operational net earnings and continuing to reduce debt.Seeka has worked proactively with its banking syndicate over the past two years and expects to be back within long-term banking covenants in the 2024 year. The Board may be able to consider dividends later in the year when the financial forecast is more certain.Seeka is a seasonal business and expects to record a greater proportion of the full year profit in the first six months ended 30 June 2024.The Company will release its 6 month results by 29 August 2024"


The PBT forecast for 2024 of $15m to $19m compares with the previous six years of 9m, 10m, 16m, 23m, 7m and minus 21m.

[Toddy]

Not many investors can win in this market. The recent announcements were reasonably positive in my mind. However, in today's environment it has just provided an opportunity for some shareholders exit.

[bull....]

Not many investors can win in this market. The recent announcements were reasonably positive in my mind. However, in today's environment it has just provided an opportunity for some shareholders exit.

debt is still far to high , they are not in a sound financial position to handle another bad yr yet .

[Toddy]

debt is still far to high , they are not in a sound financial position to handle another bad yr yet .

I forgot about those fixed packing price contracts that Seeka used to entice growers to stay with them after the disaster storage year they had.

They have another year to run, so they cannot price to market yet.

[bull....]

I forgot about those fixed packing price contracts that Seeka used to entice growers to stay with them after the disaster storage year they had.

They have another year to run, so they cannot price to market yet.

were these another incentive to lock growers in with seeka on top of the grower shares issued ?

[Toddy]

were these another incentive to lock growers in with seeka on top of the grower shares issued ?

These contracts were offered a while back because growers were leaving. I'm sure that they only have another year to run.

Im not with Seeka, but my friends, neighbours etc that are all took up the contract at the time.

The share deal was this year and was a surprise because from the outside Seeka growers were not expecting another carrot to stay.

With the availability of coolstorage space running low now across the Industry then one would think that any further incentives to growers is not necessary.

Zespri issued it's latest fruit sales forecast last evening. The green growers are heading for a RECORD payout.

All of this helps Seeka with profits from leased orchards.

[bull....]

These contracts were offered a while back because growers were leaving. I'm sure that they only have another year to run.

Im not with Seeka, but my friends, neighbours etc that are all took up the contract at the time.

The share deal was this year and was a surprise because from the outside Seeka growers were not expecting another carrot to stay.

With the availability of coolstorage space running low now across the Industry then one would think that any further incentives to growers is not necessary.

Zespri issued it's latest fruit sales forecast last evening. The green growers are heading for a RECORD payout.

All of this helps Seeka with profits from leased orchards.

these fixed price contracts seem quite silly but i guess grower loyalty is competitive.

anyway hows the buds looking ?

It was an unusually warm start to winter for most of the country, with three areas having their warmest June on record.

https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/07/03/above-average-temperatures-for-most-of-nz-in-june-niwa/

[Toddy]

these fixed price contracts seem quite silly but i guess grower loyalty is competitive.

anyway hows the buds looking ?

It was an unusually warm start to winter for most of the country, with three areas having their warmest June on record.

https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/07/03/above-average-temperatures-for-most-of-nz-in-june-niwa/

Winter chill hours are well up on previous years, so history will tell us that we should be in for a reasonable bud break come September.

The nights have been nice and cold. The grass is still growing which means that the ground is still warm.

Who knows, nature will decide.

Zespri and the Coolstore seem to be happy with how the fruit is storing and selling offshore. 60 percent of the gold has been shipped to date. Fingers crossed that it continues for the rest of the season.

I was offered a free baby lamb today when down at cafe. A good reminder that spring is not far off. And my son sent me pictures of 50 center meters of fresh snow on the skifields, a reminder that we are in winter.

As soon as those interest rates start to drop then farming will fire up again.

[bull....]

Winter chill hours are well up on previous years, so history will tell us that we should be in for a reasonable bud break come September.

The nights have been nice and cold. The grass is still growing which means that the ground is still warm.

Who knows, nature will decide.

Zespri and the Coolstore seem to be happy with how the fruit is storing and selling offshore. 60 percent of the gold has been shipped to date. Fingers crossed that it continues for the rest of the season.

I was offered a free baby lamb today when down at cafe. A good reminder that spring is not far off. And my son sent me pictures of 50 center meters of fresh snow on the skifields, a reminder that we are in winter.

As soon as those interest rates start to drop then farming will fire up again.

nature is making it harder thats for sure.
least the bud break looking good. first tick of the box.