Seeka

[Sideshow Bob]

Seeka announces CFO retirement and CFO designate - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/386312)

Seeka Limited [NZX:SEK] announces the retirement of its Chief Financial Officer, Mr Stuart McKinstry.

Stuart, who has held the role since December 2006, will leave the Company on or around 29 April 2022. The company has undergone significant transformation and growth throughout Stuart’s tenure with numerous acquisitions and corporate transactions. Stuart also served on the Claims Committee of the Kiwifruit Claim successfully settling with the Crown in 2021 on behalf of claimants.

Stuart is a highly respected and regarded executive at Seeka. He has diligently and loyally served the company and its growers with distinction. He leaves to retire, and to pursue his own business interest and governance opportunities.

Stuart will be replaced by Mrs Nicola Neilson. Nicola is the current Seeka Group Financial Controller, has been at Seeka since 2017 and is currently on maternity leave. It is intended that Nicola will take the role on Stuart’s retirement.

Release ends.

[iceman]

Stuart has been a great CFO for SEK and instrumental alongside the CEO in implementing the plan they've followed over the last few years. He was a very steady hand. I think this change has been well planned with an internal appointment to replace him. I wish Stuart well in his future endeavours.

[Sideshow Bob]

SP looking a little sickly, starting to challenge $5.00. Went XD last week, but no doubt mainly due to Omicron and potential risk on being able to staff picking and packing over the coming months.....

Through 50/200 day moving averages.

[Southern Lad]

A bit of buying support arrived this arvo.

One upside for DRP participants is that we are in the 15 working day pricing window, so a lower share price today reduces the VWAP. For me, the 2% discount is too good to pass up for a company that has a positive future.

[peat]

It sure has stopped raining. Only a few mm in the last few weeks here in the Manawatu

[Monarch]

Opac shareholders get 1.4833 SEK shares per OPAC share held. 2020 results:
EPS NTA
OPAC 0.24 6.02
SEK 0.23 5.20

Anyone know why they valued OPAC shares so much higher than SEK shares given the relative NTS and EPS? Looking at getting into this one but wondering about this strategy. Any info much appreciated.

[turnip]

Opac shareholders get 1.4833 SEK shares per OPAC share held. 2020 results:
EPS NTA
OPAC 0.24 6.02
SEK 0.23 5.20

Anyone know why they valued OPAC shares so much higher than SEK shares given the relative NTS and EPS? Looking at getting into this one but wondering about this strategy. Any info much appreciated.

There is probably a lot not captured by a straight comparison of EPS and NTA, but one that I can think of is the commitment by OPAC growers to supply Seeka for three seasons. I don't know how Seeka valued that, but under the old incentive plan Seeka growers got 10 cents per tray in shares for a one season commitment, so a three season commitment might be worth a few millions of dollars at least.

[iceman]

There is probably a lot not captured by a straight comparison of EPS and NTA, but one that I can think of is the commitment by OPAC growers to supply Seeka for three seasons. I don't know how Seeka valued that, but under the old incentive plan Seeka growers got 10 cents per tray in shares for a one season commitment, so a three season commitment might be worth a few millions of dollars at least.

That was what I was thinking as well. In the just completed NZ Fruits transaction, we have a committment from NZF´s biggest supplier who supplied over half of all of NZF´s product and a significant amount to others, committing to all his harvest going to SEK. He is planting a lot more as well. The big positive for SEK is all that fruit comes from the Gisborne/East Coast area where the harvesting is 1-2 months earlier than elsewhere which allows them to utilise their BOB infrastructure for a significantly extended period each year. I don´t know how they value that but it will be a great efficiency boost for SEK and the current infrastructure.

[Mr Slothbear]

You guys will probably find this interesting.

https://www.snowballeffect.co.nz/offers/preview/hereford-park-orchard-qlg99?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Database%20Email%20-%20February&utm_content=Database%20Email%20-%20February+CID_bd179c6abf67fa5022323885ae41a8fb&utm_source=Campaign%20Monitor&utm_term=Hereford%20Park%20Orchard

Dunstan family looking to raise capital to plant out 173 hectares in western BOP.

will provide an alternative non listed way to invest in NZ kiwifruit industry

[Southern Lad]

Good to see continued growth in plantings and confidence in developing into new export markets from established industry players. Any idea on what suitable land supply for future Kiwifruit plantings is like?

[Sideshow Bob]

Results tomorrow.

Already gone ex-div and incoming next week.....:)

[percy]

I have just watched the Seeks presentation.
Excellent,and thankful I increased our holdings, and got The Trust I help out on onboard.
Extremely positive outlook.

[audiav]

It’s the only NZ share I’m accumulating over the past few months. Except for a wee starting position in MOV. Podcast this morning said beef up 16% fruit up almost 6% (should have bought some SFF lol)

[percy]

It’s the only NZ share I’m accumulating over the past few months. Except for a wee starting position in MOV. Podcast this morning said beef up 16% fruit up almost 6% (should have bought some SFF lol)

You are a total disgrace not supporting your local company.
SILVER FERN FARMS CO-OPERATIVE LIMITED is located in Dunedin, OTAGO, New Zealand.
However adding to your SEK holding you can be forgiven....lol.

[audiav]

Podcast this morning said beef up 16% fruit up almost 6% (should have bought some SFF lol) should clarify these are US stats. And YES Percy feeling the shame, I could call it geographical allocation, live in the south, invest in the north?

[peat]

I see a triangle forming in wave 4 which kind of looks like its broken on the downside but 4:60 is the actual critical point. If we hold above that then 5th wave coming to reach 6

[turnip]

In the annual report they say "Labour availability currently looks better for harvest 2022." which seems a bit surprising to me, but great news if turns out that way.

I missed the webinar and can't find a replay anywhere, I wondered if there was any further comment or questions asked about this?

[Southern Lad]

I recall some discussion on RSE worker numbers being OK (all things considered), albeit with some short term disruption due to the need to self isolation now there were COVID cases in the Pacific.

[Sideshow Bob]

https://farmersweekly.co.nz/s/fw-article/seeka-harvests-more-from-acquisitions-MCEKQSQASNLNHIJLKXCAODFCWISE

[iceman]

In the annual report they say "Labour availability currently looks better for harvest 2022." which seems a bit surprising to me, but great news if turns out that way.

I missed the webinar and can't find a replay anywhere, I wondered if there was any further comment or questions asked about this?

They have a number of Tongan workers already in NZ. One of them tested positve for COVID a few days ago so most of them have been isolating. But it will make a huge difference to them this harvest

[turnip]

"Chief executive of produce distributor Seeka Michael Franks said 85 of its 1400 had tested positive for Covid-19 and another 150 were isolating." Stuff 03/03/22 (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/127929667/countdown-loses-1400-staff-to-covidrelated-absences)

"The kiwifruit harvest in New Zealand is a little later than expected with continuing wet and warm weather slowing brix development and maturity. The main harvest is expected to get underway in about another week." Seeka CEO on Fresh Plaza (https://www.freshplaza.com/article/9405649/nz-kiwifruit-harvest-a-little-later-than-expected-but-quality-looks-excellent/)

[Southern Lad]

From Zespri's Chairmans update released yesterday:

"COVID-19 continues to prove challenging, particularly as it exacerbates the existing industry labour shortage across our supply chain.

While the industry has made operational changes to help smooth the flow of fruit and is trying to make best use of our capacity, the shortage of backpackers and the impact of COVID-19 means that many post-harvest facilities are finding it difficult to recruit the workforce needed for their shifts.

This year’s harvest is likely to be the most challenging in the COVID period. We encourage all growers to support your industry and contact NZKGI or your packhouse if you, friends or family have availability to work. Once your fruit has cleared, please work quickly with your packhouse to schedule its picking and packing."

[iceman]

From Michael Franks on the weekend just gone:

" Remarkably we have maintained operations at all packhouses now continuously for over a week and we have packed our first 3m trays in the current season. It has been about as challenging a start as I can remember.
Omicron has decimated crews and key staff have been hit hard. It’s been a particularly difficult period having to run continuously chasing the Zespri system of midnight caps to optimise the returns for our growers. Many people across the business from sampling to picking to post-harvest have worked long hard hours. They have made considerable sacrifices including those with young families at home. We will schedule in down days for the business this week to give people a break.
The reality is that most sites are running dayshift only and when we push the site to the midnight cut-off – we lose the first 5 hours the next day as crews recover. It’s a fact seemingly lost on the industry.
Arrivals of RSE workers have been wonderful but irregular. Honestly they have been a godsend. The coordination of the sourcing and of RSE workers has been assumed by the central Government and we have lost some of the ability to innovate and really are in a position of taking what we can get, when they arrive. It’s not an easy time to be in a business employing people in a time critical industry and in doing so keeping the economy running."

[Ricky-bobby]

From Michael Franks on the weekend just gone:

" Remarkably we have maintained operations at all packhouses now continuously for over a week and we have packed our first 3m trays in the current season. It has been about as challenging a start as I can remember.
Omicron has decimated crews and key staff have been hit hard. It’s been a particularly difficult period having to run continuously chasing the Zespri system of midnight caps to optimise the returns for our growers. Many people across the business from sampling to picking to post-harvest have worked long hard hours. They have made considerable sacrifices including those with young families at home. We will schedule in down days for the business this week to give people a break.
The reality is that most sites are running dayshift only and when we push the site to the midnight cut-off – we lose the first 5 hours the next day as crews recover. It’s a fact seemingly lost on the industry.
Arrivals of RSE workers have been wonderful but irregular. Honestly they have been a godsend. The coordination of the sourcing and of RSE workers has been assumed by the central Government and we have lost some of the ability to innovate and really are in a position of taking what we can get, when they arrive. It’s not an easy time to be in a business employing people in a time critical industry and in doing so keeping the economy running."

Really feel for them and their teams. It’s a tough time if ur in primary industry harvest at the moment… apples are same. Can’t see the labour piece getting any better in the next 12 months. RSE’s are the backbone for these guys and the government is radio silence as usual

[iceman]

Really feel for them and their teams. It’s a tough time if ur in primary industry harvest at the moment… apples are same. Can’t see the labour piece getting any better in the next 12 months. RSE’s are the backbone for these guys and the government is radio silence as usual

Yes the last paragraph in Michael’s quote above shows the frustration with this control freak and incapable Government. I wish they’d just get out of the way and let people run their businesses without this endless interference and restrictions. It’s killing our economy on all fronts

[bull....]

Despite Seeka currently advertising $24 per hour in Tauranga, Rosentreter said they had put $22.75 per hour on the table in its negotiations in Northland.
She claims when First Union representatives initially asked Seeka chief executive Michael Franks if the current rate of $24 an hour would be continued beyond the pandemic, he described it as an added incentive due to Covid.
“The company has admitted to us that $1.25 of that is a ‘seasonal allowance’ because of the border closure, and it'll be shaved off after this harvest,” said Rosentreter.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/bay-of-plenty/300559856/kiwifruit-picker-reveals-secret-to-earning-60-per-hour

[iceman]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/bay-of-plenty/300559856/kiwifruit-picker-reveals-secret-to-earning-60-per-hour

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/bay-of-plenty/300559856/kiwifruit-picker-reveals-secret-to-earning-60-per-hour

Indeed, a machine!!

[Getty]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/bay-of-plenty/300559856/kiwifruit-picker-reveals-secret-to-earning-60-per-hour

It seems MS Townsend is a contractor, , not an employee @ $60 per hour, and if so, is not covered by govt. employment law re public holidays, so I will be surprised if she gets time and a half @ $90 during Easter statutory holidays.

[iceman]

It seems MS Townsend is a contractor, , not an employee @ $60 per hour, and if so, is not covered by govt. employment law re public holidays, so I will be surprised if she gets time and a half @ $90 during Easter statutory holidays.

I have no idea. But this woman seems to be a hard worker making hay while the sun shines, so I assume she knows.
There are serious labour shortages in the industry, exacerbated by the ridiculous restrictions on bringing in seasonal workers from the Pacific Islands coupled with the mad isolation rules still in force in NZ. Just nuts.

There are frequent media articles, driven by the Unions, about shortages being due to low wages. That is simply not true and to the contrary, there are lots of opportunities for low skilled workers to work hard and earn decent money.
Many like the idea of the latter, not so much the former.

Here is a post from a friend of mine from yesterday, who’s a shift foreman in a kiwifruit packhouse in the BOP:

“Boss told us last night kiwifruit industry will employ 15yr olds in the packhouse now. If you got a young one wants to earn $1k-1.5k a week then come on down. There's all sorts of jobs for everyone any age any size. I got a couple 65+ Yr olds on my shift”

[Southern Lad]

Anyone got any clues on the change in market sentiment over the last couple of weeks? Share price was stuck in the $5.00 to $5.05 range but has picked up on reasonable volumes to the $5.15 to $5.20 range.

Price increase coincided with CEO Michael Franks on market purchase of a further 1,000 shares at $5.00 each, but assume there has to be more to it than that. Market depth shows 32,000 shares available between $5.20 and $5.25 - maybe some of the overhung from shares issued to the vendors of the recent acquisitions is starting to dissipate?

Any intel on how the Kiwifruit harvest is progressing?

[percy]

Anyone got any clues on the change in market sentiment over the last couple of weeks? Share price was stuck in the $5.00 to $5.05 range but has picked up on reasonable volumes to the $5.15 to $5.20 range.

Price increase coincided with CEO Michael Franks on market purchase of a further 1,000 shares at $5.00 each, but assume there has to be more to it than that. Market depth shows 32,000 shares available between $5.20 and $5.25 - maybe some of the overhung from shares issued to the vendors of the recent acquisitions is starting to dissipate?

Any intel on how the Kiwifruit harvest is progressing?

I think you are right most probably, it was the vendors overhang,although I hear the harvest is going well.
.

[iceman]

I think people are starting to realise that SEK has managed through a very difficult harvesting season very well and most of the risks are falling by the wayside. I think we're in for a bumper result from this season :-)

[Paint it Black]

I think people are starting to realise that SEK has managed through a very difficult harvesting season very well and most of the risks are falling by the wayside. I think we're in for a bumper result from this season :-)

The annual report was also very encouraging, they have made some strong acquisitions and the 6% dividend is anticipated to rise with increased earnings. One of the few stocks in NZ at present with a clear upward momentum on the MACD.

[percy]

Very positive agm
I gained a lot from it.
Very happy holder.

[RTM]

Very positive agm
I gained a lot from it.
Very happy holder.

I missed it ....lawns...two houses...yuck.

So it sounds like they have managed to pick all their Kiwi Fruit and Avo's....right ?
And Scales presumably managing to pick all their Apples...or enough.
And I am hearing that the vinyards are having a bumper year with lots of good grape crops.

So how can this all happen amidst the doom and gloom of a shortage of migrant labour ?
Maybe Kiwi's are getting our of bed and helping ?
Maybe automation is helping ?
Maybe we are using our labour better ?
I think some of this is called productivity. Maybe a silver lining ?
FIngers crossed !

[percy]

I missed it ....lawns...two houses...yuck.

So it sounds like they have managed to pick all their Kiwi Fruit and Avo's....right ?
And Scales presumably managing to pick all their Apples...or enough.
And I am hearing that the vinyards are having a bumper year with lots of good grape crops.

So how can this all happen amidst the doom and gloom of a shortage of migrant labour ?
Maybe Kiwi's are getting our of bed and helping ?
Maybe automation is helping ?
Maybe we are using our labour better ?
I think some of this is called productivity. Maybe a silver lining ?
FIngers crossed !

Well I think it has been mission impossible.
Both the Seeka Chairman and the CEO were very clear on how grateful they were to every body.A true community effort.
Don't think many saw too much of their beds.
Long stressful hours.

[Ricky-bobby]

Well I think it has been mission impossible.
Both the Seeka Chairman and the CEO were very clear on how grateful they were to every body.A true community effort.
Don't think many saw too much of their beds.
Long stressful hours.

I’m in the wine game and it was a hard work.we are also wayyyy more mechanised than any other primary Hort enterprise. Take my hats off to them as it would of been a grind. Dealing with covid was also a massive headache as we were skinny on staff before we even started.

[bull....]

things getting hot at seeka

Kiwifruit Workers At Seeka Call For Secure Wages In New Agreement
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2204/S00635/kiwifruit-workers-at-seeka-call-for-secure-wages-in-new-agreement.htm

[iceman]

things getting hot at seeka

Kiwifruit Workers At Seeka Call For Secure Wages In New Agreement
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2204/S00635/kiwifruit-workers-at-seeka-call-for-secure-wages-in-new-agreement.htm

Nope. A none issue. FIRST Union are barking up the wrong tree and represent very few workers. SEK will just ignore them.

[couta1]

Nope. A none issue. FIRST Union are barking up the wrong tree and represent very few workers. SEK will just ignore them. He wouldn't know that, just spends all his time finding anything negative on any company and slaps it up without thinking, pure trolling.

[bull....]

He wouldn't know that, just spends all his time finding anything negative on any company and slaps it up without thinking, pure trolling.

its just news headline out there today for anyone interested on whats going on ... trolling lol think your trolling me if anything

[Sideshow Bob]

Seeka provides New Zealand kiwifruit harvest update - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/392302)

Whilst kiwifruit harvest is still ongoing Seeka advises crop volumes expected to be down

Seeka Limited [NZX:SEK] provides the market with this mid-season New Zealand kiwifruit harvest update.

The SunGold harvest in New Zealand is completed and the Hayward harvest is an estimated 38% completed.

The total New Zealand SunGold kiwifruit crop is estimated to be 103.3m trays, a reduction of 9.7% on prior forecast industry volumes, New Zealand wide. Seeka’s SunGold volume reflects this seasonal variation with a total volume packed of 26.0m trays. While the current years volume is ahead of the 17.9m packed in 2021, it is behind the current year estimate by 8.2%.

The total New Zealand estimated Hayward kiwifruit crop has been reduced by 4.7% to 65.1m trays, noting that there is still approximately 62% of the fruit unharvested and a continuing risk of further reduction. Seeka has to date packed 5.6m trays and is entering the main pack phase of the Hayward harvest.

Seeka advises that it is too early to provide current year earnings guidance and expects to do so once Hayward harvest and packing is complete. The 2022 season is proving to be a challenging one for the company with lower crop volumes and a tight labour market exacerbated by Covid 19 disruption.

Release ends.

[bull....]

Seeka provides New Zealand kiwifruit harvest update - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/392302)

Whilst kiwifruit harvest is still ongoing Seeka advises crop volumes expected to be down

Seeka Limited [NZX:SEK] provides the market with this mid-season New Zealand kiwifruit harvest update.

The SunGold harvest in New Zealand is completed and the Hayward harvest is an estimated 38% completed.

The total New Zealand SunGold kiwifruit crop is estimated to be 103.3m trays, a reduction of 9.7% on prior forecast industry volumes, New Zealand wide. Seeka’s SunGold volume reflects this seasonal variation with a total volume packed of 26.0m trays. While the current years volume is ahead of the 17.9m packed in 2021, it is behind the current year estimate by 8.2%.

The total New Zealand estimated Hayward kiwifruit crop has been reduced by 4.7% to 65.1m trays, noting that there is still approximately 62% of the fruit unharvested and a continuing risk of further reduction. Seeka has to date packed 5.6m trays and is entering the main pack phase of the Hayward harvest.

Seeka advises that it is too early to provide current year earnings guidance and expects to do so once Hayward harvest and packing is complete. The 2022 season is proving to be a challenging one for the company with lower crop volumes and a tight labour market exacerbated by Covid 19 disruption.

Release ends.

sounds like setting the scene for a downgrade

[Sideshow Bob]

sounds like setting the scene for a downgrade

The challenge on labour is nothing new - appears from SH communication Seeka have been handling relatively well and doing everything possible.

Recent acquistions and diversification should help.

[bull....]

The challenge on labour is nothing new - appears from SH communication Seeka have been handling relatively well and doing everything possible.

Recent acquistions and diversification should help.

seeka like any business wont be immune to cost increases across the board

[Mr Slothbear]

seeka like any business wont be immune to cost increases across the board


of course but also one that is a necessity for many and is relatively inelastic compared to most other goods / industries therefore fairly defensive in times of inflation

[Sideshow Bob]

Certainly the market didn't like it yesterday. Has generally been steady around $5.00-5.30, and not really been under $5.00 for over a year.

[DarkHorse]

Looks like best primary producer prospects are on the USX right now: https://file-us.clickdimensions.com/...7-005056b6486e (https://file-us.clickdimensions.com/silverfernfarmsconz-achlb/files/supplierupdate_cenewsletter_270522final.pdf?m=5/27/2022%204:37:52%20AM&_cldee=7tRLswAqfFp5j1ibPNFGWlqkmes_iHrDGmsCkJ2Y2Tr 9YqcpRyb1tnlglsnRxPih&recipientid=contact-181696927b1deb119127005056b6486e-b8f91c99f7b1475dae5fa128ff4dcbb2&esid=7501607b-3bdd-ec11-9157-005056b6486e)

[bull....]

sounds like setting the scene for a downgrade

the share price has been on a slide recently.
lack of buyers looks like and those pesky grower incentive shares flooding the sell side all the time ?

[Grimy]

I'm keen to add some more, but certainly not while the share price seems to be accelerating downwards.

[bull....]

sounds like setting the scene for a downgrade

and we got one and what a whopper it was

40% down was it ... a whopper

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/394189

[nztx]

SP don't appeared to have winked in fact added a bit

Then look at the SEK NTA : $ 5.71

(assuming NZX figures are correct)

[bull....]

SP don't appeared to have winked in fact added a bit



its so thin traded
a parcel of 10k would crash the price lol

[IAK]

Zeapri is happy, so I'm assuming Seeka will be too. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/new-zealand-wins-18b-trade-deal-with-eu-at-eleventh-hour/JMOMOJUUSR3RT2T27YWACDOFY4/

[iceman]

Zeapri is happy, so I'm assuming Seeka will be too. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/new-zealand-wins-18b-trade-deal-with-eu-at-eleventh-hour/JMOMOJUUSR3RT2T27YWACDOFY4/

Zespri paid $ 46.5 million in EU tariffs last season. A good chunk of that gain should flow to SEK and all growers. I haven’t seen when full implementation will be in place

[Mr Slothbear]

Zespri paid $ 46.5 million in EU tariffs last season. A good chunk of that gain should flow to SEK and all growers. I haven’t seen when full implementation will be in place

i’m in Europe currently and have been impressed to see the very high availability of nz grown kiwifruit.
Pretty much every supermarket i’ve been in and even a few small convenience type stores have stocked them and some had little kiwifruit snackpack type things.

[bull....]

Kiwifruit returns not so juicy this year as rising costs and fruit quality issues bite
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/kiwifruit-returns-not-so-juicy-this-year-as-rising-costs-and-fruit-quality-issues-bite/UFLXWCCWO5FYGIESSKLLPLTFZI/

[Rossimarnz]

Avocado's also coming off a poor year due to oversupply in the key Australian market and heading into a year where production is typically down because of the natural biennial fruit bearing cycle of avocados

[Jaa]

Kiwifruit returns not so juicy this year as rising costs and fruit quality issues bite
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/kiwifruit-returns-not-so-juicy-this-year-as-rising-costs-and-fruit-quality-issues-bite/UFLXWCCWO5FYGIESSKLLPLTFZI/

Key bit from the article, downgrade coming?

Prices were holding in most markets but "at present the indications are that conventional fruit returns are likely to be at the bottom and possibly even below the ranges published in June".

Mathieson said prices were holding in most markets but cost increases in freight along with labour and the quality issues meant "this season's returns will be under pressure".

[BlackPeter]

Kiwifruit returns not so juicy this year as rising costs and fruit quality issues bite
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/kiwifruit-returns-not-so-juicy-this-year-as-rising-costs-and-fruit-quality-issues-bite/UFLXWCCWO5FYGIESSKLLPLTFZI/

Hammertime :scared:?

246 shares sold for $4.55, i.e. SP down 1.1% at open. Bids already back up to yesterdays close ($4.60), but nobody selling.

What are you hammering? Doesn't seem to be the price :p ;

[Sideshow Bob]

Kiwifruit returns not so juicy this year as rising costs and fruit quality issues bite


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/kiwifruit-returns-not-so-juicy-this-year-as-rising-costs-and-fruit-quality-issues-bite/UFLXWCCWO5FYGIESSKLLPLTFZI/

This has been known for a little while, and been publicised. Herald just a bit slow.....

This is Zespri on the USX last week: https://www.usx.co.nz/uploads/paperclip/documents/2627/original/2022-08_Industry_Update_-_9_August_FINAL.pdf?1660067269

Seeka has made mentioned to shareholders also

[bull....]

Key bit from the article, downgrade coming?

Prices were holding in most markets but "at present the indications are that conventional fruit returns are likely to be at the bottom and possibly even below the ranges published in June".

Mathieson said prices were holding in most markets but cost increases in freight along with labour and the quality issues meant "this season's returns will be under pressure".

that would be 2 downgrades then

[bull....]

see the herald got another story today

Alarm sounded over this season's export kiwifruit quality issues
a new report on Zespri by Craigs Investment Partners research analyst David Harris suggests the fruit loss is "of concern" and "a trend over recent seasons" both onshore and offshore.


Michael Franks, managing director of NZX-listed kiwifruit grower and packhouse operation Seeka, told the Herald the fruit quality issue this season is "major" with more than one symptom and no verified causes yet.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/alarm-sounded-over-this-seasons-export-kiwifruit-quality-issues/A2DRZEV6PCBII7EEOMKZJQZSZI/

[GTM 3442]

Seeka have good years, average years and bad years.

This is good, because it gives you some pretty clear buy/hold/sell signals. Even a fool like me can (usually) read them.

[Grimy]

Down to 4.37. Will be interesting to see which way the sp goes after tomorrow's presentation.
I might even listen in. If I'm not outside clearing drain grates..........

[turnip]

Most of my horticultural investments (mainly NZ/AU based, biggest is Seeka) are down this year, but my other food investments (mainly US based manufacturing, biggest is SunOpta) are up strongly, so I have some rebalancing to do.

[peat]

Seeka have good years, average years and bad years.

This is good, because it gives you some pretty clear buy/hold/sell signals. Even a fool like me can (usually) read them.
yes quite amazing the price took so long to slide today after the Herald article quoted in another post. but no doubt selling volume wouldve been a problem
If this was Fletchers I'd be out but as a portfolio stock at 5% and on a longer term basis I have some confidence in the management so will ride out the storm.
I've always acknowledged horticulture as risky.

[iceman]

yes quite amazing the price took so long to slide today after the Herald article quoted in another post. but no doubt selling volume wouldve been a problem
If this was Fletchers I'd be out but as a portfolio stock at 5% and on a longer term basis I have some confidence in the management so will ride out the storm.
I've always acknowledged horticulture as risky.

It's been known for a little while and both SEK and Zespri have made noises about it recently. The industry is going through a tough year with the quality issues and the huge limitations on labour. It will be interesting to see if the lack of access to reliable labour is in any way contributing to the quality issues ! So far I don;t think the industry believes that is the case.
But as you say, horticulture is always a risky business/investment and have the good, average and bad years. SEK is a very well managed business and while this year is a big disappointment, the long term strategy stays intact.

Discl: Halved my holding in the last couple of weeks. Will hold the rest long term.

[Sideshow Bob]

Seeka Announces Result for the Six Months to 30 June 2022 - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/397132)

Listed New Zealand produce company Seeka, reports its unaudited interim results for the six months ended 30 June 2022.

- $49.4m EBITDA – up 5.3% on six months to June 2021, (previous corresponding period (pcp))
- $21.5m NPAT – up 4.3% on pcp

Seeka has announced its results with a backdrop of Covid-19, adverse weather events, extreme labour shortages, machine commissioning delays, shipping disruption, lower fruit yields and poor quality. It has been a tough six months and the company has hunkered down, toughed it out and focussed on the immediate job of optimising its operations and results in a volatile environment with significant inflationary pressure and geopolitical events affecting key markets.

The company has focussed on core business having completed the acquisition and integration of OPAC, Orangewood and NZ Fruits in the last twelve months.

While revenue was up by 10% to $247.3m, earnings were impacted by increased costs and lower than expected fruit volumes. Labour was extremely tight through key main harvest periods with Seeka having to innovate to maintain operations. Loyal personnel were redeployed to "play out of position" at peak stress load to ensure the continuity of operations.
Fruit volumes were lower than expected reflecting a late 2021 storm in the Ōpōtiki region along with a seasonal reduction in yields across all catchments. In addition, the Gisborne region was later than normal in maturing and then was hit with persistent rain events.

Fruit quality in 2022 is unseasonably poor and this has created industry-wide issues.

The new highly-automated MAF Roda packing machine was commissioned later than expected adding to capacity challenges. The new machine brings together the latest automation as previously trialled by the company. The KKP machine alongside other automation investments and Seeka’s operations in Gisborne and Oakside provide the capacity to handle the expected 2023 crop volumes.

In June Seeka delivered its first sustainability report including three years of verified carbon footprint calculations. Seeka is committed to reducing its carbon footprint by 30% by 2030, 50% by 2030 and to be net carbon neutral by 2050.
Seeka reminds the market that it operates a seasonal business in the primary industry where the bulk of activities occur in the first six months of the year.

Dividend
The Board has determined that no dividend is payable at this time with the dividend to be reconsidered later in the year.

Full year operational guidance
Seeka’s full year outlook is dynamic, with a challenging second six months forecast. Full year net profit before tax is forecast to be between $9.0m and $11.0m.
The full text of the announcement is attached along with the unaudited six month financial statements to 30 June 2022.
ENDS

[sb9]

Very tough result for s/holders. Not a great outlook with no dividend and trying times for the industry.

[Sideshow Bob]

Looks like reasonable first half of the year, but much of their earnings look to be washed away in the 2nd half, of which already 1.5months into.

[bull....]

no div will disappoint s/h
conserve cash when business is entering a very challenging period ahead is sensible

[winner69]

Looks like reasonable first half of the year, but much of their earnings look to be washed away in the 2nd half, of which already 1.5months into.

Half year NPBT $30.1m down $0,7m on last year

Full year NPBT guidance say $10.0m so second half loss $20.1m (last year second half NPBT was loss $7.3m)

Huge difference - things must be really really bad or have I got wrong numbers

They used word 'dynamic' in outlook - sure is dynamic

[BlackPeter]

Half year NPBT $30.1m down $0,7m on last year

Full year NPBT guidance say $10.0m so second half loss $20.1m (last year second half NPBT was loss $7.3m)

Huge difference - things must be really really bad or have I got wrong numbers

They used word 'dynamic' in outlook - sure is dynamic

Didn't they get last year $7m or so as compensation for the DOC / government botch up with this kiwifruit disease, reducing obviously last years second half loss?

Not really a regular payment, i.e. you should deduct that from last years earnings ...

Other thing is - they did grow (bought some more companies), but the harvest (this year) didn't - I suspect higher overhead not covered by a higher throughput.

Anyway - just listening into the webinar ... and it appears they do have their costs and processes under control. You recognise a good management team how it gets through difficult times. These are difficult times and it is a good management team.

[bull....]

Half year NPBT $30.1m down $0,7m on last year

Full year NPBT guidance say $10.0m so second half loss $20.1m (last year second half NPBT was loss $7.3m)

Huge difference - things must be really really bad or have I got wrong numbers

They used word 'dynamic' in outlook - sure is dynamic

dynamic indeed , fruit disease issue probably why he used dynamic ? cause who knows how this will effect crops next yr might be worse ?

[winner69]

Didn't they get last year $7m or so as compensation for the DOC / government botch up with this kiwifruit disease, reducing obviously last years second half loss?

Not really a regular payment, i.e. you should deduct that from last years earnings ...

Other thing is - they did grow (bought some more companies), but the harvest (this year) didn't - I suspect higher overhead not covered by a higher throughput.

Anyway - just listening into the webinar ... and it appears they do have their costs and processes under control. You recognise a good management team how it gets through difficult times. These are difficult times and it is a good management team.

You are so right BP - $7.6m received in H221

So allowing for that H222 NLBT expected to be $20m v $15m last year

You are being very complimentary towards management - must be a shareholder ;)

[BlackPeter]

You are so right BP - $7.6m received in H221

You are being very complimentary towards management - must be a shareholder ;)

Praise where praise is due ... at least these guys are earning their keep. No point in praising management just when the sun shines anybody can bask in the sun.

But yes, I am holding. Good company, difficult times.

[winner69]

How much has the recent acquisitions contributed to results or is too early to tell

[iceman]

Praise where praise is due ... at least these guys are earning their keep. No point in praising management just when the sun shines anybody can bask in the sun.

But yes, I am holding. Good company, difficult times.

Totally agree

[RTM]

Praise where praise is due ... at least these guys are earning their keep. No point in praising management just when the sun shines anybody can bask in the sun.

But yes, I am holding. Good company, difficult times.

I am holding as well...probably get hiding today I guess.
Once concern I have is if the warming and changing climate will be as suitable for growing KiwiFruit as it was previously.
Our winter has been quite different than the previous 12 or so winters we have spent up North. And I add that info to the quality problems with the fruit they are seeing.
Just wondering.....who knows...might be better ?

[bull....]

on forecasts pe 21

[dibble]

I thought he was, like his name, pretty frank. If you think there is a future in food to me its still a decent stock but 2 concerns: the chemical possibly soon to be banned that gives budding a real boost (lower yield to be countered by increasing vinage-if thats a word); and the delay in ripening of one of the varieties, 15% ready when expected 80%. If this is just growing seasonal variation it still makes planning (pickers etc) really difficult/expensive but if it heralds the start of the breakdown of the growing cycle then...we thats not ideal.

[BlackPeter]

I thought he was, like his name, pretty frank. If you think there is a future in food to me its still a decent stock but 2 concerns: the chemical possibly soon to be banned that gives budding a real boost (lower yield to be countered by increasing vinage-if thats a word); and the delay in ripening of one of the varieties, 15% ready when expected 80%. If this is just growing seasonal variation it still makes planning (pickers etc) really difficult/expensive but if it heralds the start of the breakdown of the growing cycle then...we thats not ideal.

Did you watch the webinar? He explained that. Unseasonal rain stopped / delayed the ripening of the fruit.

Not a "breakdown of the growing cycle"- though, obviously - with climate change accelerating should we expect unusual weather events becoming more and more usual. This however is a problem all growers will face, i.e. as long as comsumers want fruit it is a cost they ultimately have to carry.

[Jaa]

To avoid "late machine commissioning" wouldn't a competent management commission their machinery in the 9 months of the year that it sits mostly idle?

Maybe all those growers so keen to sell their co-ops (Aongatete, OPAC, Orangewood, NZ Fruits) and then dump their Seeka shares knew more than us mere punters all along.

[BlackPeter]

To avoid "late machine commissioning" wouldn't a competent management commission their machinery in the 9 months of the year that it sits mostly idle?

Maybe all those growers so keen to sell their co-ops (Aongatete, OPAC, Orangewood, NZ Fruits) and then dump their Seeka shares knew more than us mere punters all along.

I suppose you didn't watch the webinar? That's what the plan was.

But sure, I recon they should have predicted all these freight congestion due to Omicron and the Chinese lock downs when they ordered the machine 2 years or so ago ... I am sure you could have told them with the benefit of hindsight, couldn't you?

[bull....]

Did you watch the webinar? He explained that. Unseasonal rain stopped / delayed the ripening of the fruit.

Not a "breakdown of the growing cycle"- though, obviously - with climate change accelerating should we expect unusual weather events becoming more and more usual. This however is a problem all growers will face, i.e. as long as comsumers want fruit it is a cost they ultimately have to carry.

climate change will be a added big risk for growers with no way of being able to predict what will happen each yr.

[Jaa]

I suppose you didn't watch the webinar? That's what the plan was.

But sure, I recon they should have predicted all these freight congestion due to Omicron and the Chinese lock downs when they ordered the machine 2 years or so ago ... I am sure you could have told them with the benefit of hindsight, couldn't you?

I would love to but the Zoom ID has expired. Prefer the Turners method of sharing it on YouTube for people to watch when they have time. See Seeka have posted the presentation from Feb (https://www.seeka.co.nz/presentations) but not this one with the bad news/explanations even though it would appear market sensitive. Competence?

Freight issues have been "normal" for at least 2 years, if anything they have been easing this year. These big automated agricultural machines are notoriously hard to get working. I wouldn't plan my harvest around one but with the "labour shortages" I guess they hoped for a magic solution.

I use quotes as between friends and my own experience working in Kiwifruit it always amazed me what a terrible deal it was. Seasonal, low pay, terrible bosses and no guarantee of income. If they hired people on salaries year round at the average wage the industry wouldn't exist which is always risky for shareholders/growers if the flow of imported seasonal labour is disrupted. e.g. backpackers, RSE and various immigration scams.

Have always thought Seeka one of the better operators but you can't fight industry dynamics.

[BlackPeter]

climate change will be a added big risk for growers with no way of being able to predict what will happen each yr.

Absolutely. And humans will just stop eating to compensate for this problem, won't they?

Well, maybe not.

Given that the risks of climate change apply to anybody in this essential industry and given that humans still will need food - why would that be a specific problem for Seeka? If climate change reduces the yield in the industry (which it might) than consumers will be happy to either pay more or eat less.

Take your pick.

[BlackPeter]

I would love to but the Zoom ID has expired. Prefer the Turners method of sharing it on YouTube for people to watch when they have time. See Seeka have posted the presentation from Feb (https://www.seeka.co.nz/presentations) but not this one with the bad news/explanations even though it would appear market sensitive. Competence?

Freight issues have been "normal" for at least 2 years, if anything they have been easing this year. These big automated agricultural machines are notoriously hard to get working. I wouldn't plan my harvest around one but with the "labour shortages" I guess they hoped for a magic solution.

I use quotes as between friends and my own experience working in Kiwifruit it always amazed me what a terrible deal it was. Seasonal, low pay, terrible bosses and no guarantee of income. If they hired people on salaries year round at the average wage the industry wouldn't exist which is always risky for shareholders/growers if the flow of imported seasonal labour is disrupted. e.g. backpackers, RSE and various immigration scams.

Have always thought Seeka one of the better operators but you can't fight industry dynamics.

Jeez, you sound like somebody with an axe to grind.

Numbers didn't look horrible - better than last year and better (or equal) to analyst predictions.

Ah yes, and Michael Franks offered that anybody with additional questions re the announcement can contact them (him or the CFO) after the meeting - contact details are in the NZX announcement.

Why don't you do that? Too hard for you? I guess whinging and making false claims on an anonymous internet forum is easier?

I am wondering in whose court the competence issues might lie?

[RTM]

Absolutely. And humans will just stop eating to compensate for this problem, won't they?

Well, maybe not.

Given that the risks of climate change apply to anybody in this essential industry and given that humans still will need food - why would that be a specific problem for Seeka? If climate change reduces the yield in the industry (which it might) than consumers will be happy to either pay more or eat less.

Take your pick.

There could be other places in the world...or even NZ.... that become more suitable for Kiwifruit horticulture BP as the climate changes. e.g. South America. South Africa ?
I don't know..but climate change could change what we are good at doing.

[Sideshow Bob]

There could be other places in the world...or even NZ.... that become more suitable for Kiwifruit horticulture BP as the climate changes. e.g. South America. South Africa ?
I don't know..but climate change could change what we are good at doing.

Zespri grow in a number of countries around the world to ensure they can supply year-round - I think 7 (but that is a few years ago).

They also own alot of the modern varieties.

[BlackPeter]

There could be other places in the world...or even NZ.... that become more suitable for Kiwifruit horticulture BP as the climate changes. e.g. South America. South Africa ?
I don't know..but climate change could change what we are good at doing.

True. Looking however into the climate modeling for various parts of the globe would I say that there will be many places less suitable for growing crops than NZ, but sure - there might be as well some places becoming more suitable.

Our advantage is that we are in the moderate zone ... and close (but not too close - sea level rise) to the sea - i.e. temperature increases will be less extreme and rainfall generally should increase (which is a good thing if you live e.g. in semi-arid Canterbury :) ;. Obviously - extreme rain events will increase as well (but I recon, this is manageable - just look at horticulture in the tropics).

However - undoubtedly there will be challenges for everybody to cope with the transition from now to then.

We might get as well a handful of new pests introduced and we might need to move (e.g.) Kiwi fruit plantations and Avocados to the South Island, but similar issues will apply to all parts of the globe.

People still will want ot eat fresh fruit - I am sure about that.

[Jaa]

Jeez, you sound like somebody with an axe to grind.

Numbers didn't look horrible - better than last year and better (or equal) to analyst predictions.

Ah yes, and Michael Franks offered that anybody with additional questions re the announcement can contact them (him or the CFO) after the meeting - contact details are in the NZX announcement.

Why don't you do that? Too hard for you? I guess whinging and making false claims on an anonymous internet forum is easier?

I am wondering in whose court the competence issues might lie?

What false claims?

The share price is down 7%, so the market clearly thinks the numbers and outlook look horrible.

[Getty]

As recently as late April, and May, 2 directors bought at $5.20 /$5.17.

Would they have done so if they thought they were going to get juiced?

Current SP $4.06 gives estimated forward PE 17, compared to TGG which has also stopped dividends for now, on PE 20.5.

Will the amalgamation synergies and new machines off set this years negatives, going into a new season?

[bull....]

As recently as late April, and May, 2 directors bought at $5.20 /$5.17.

Would they have done so if they thought they were going to get juiced?

Current SP $4.06 gives estimated forward PE 17, compared to TGG which has also stopped dividends for now, on PE 20.5.

Will the amalgamation synergies and new machines off set this years negatives, going into a new season?

chuck in scales as well for high pe stock in the sector as well. think people paying to much for any of these types of stocks going forward with the risks due to climate change now. the past the weather was predictable ... not now deserves a risk premium i reckon

[dibble]

Did you watch the webinar? He explained that. Unseasonal rain stopped / delayed the ripening of the fruit.

Not a "breakdown of the growing cycle"- though, obviously - with climate change accelerating should we expect unusual weather events becoming more and more usual. This however is a problem all growers will face, i.e. as long as comsumers want fruit it is a cost they ultimately have to carry.

Hmm, its possible you missed the point. Easy to palm that variation off as "unseasonal" under old school thinking but consider the moving parts of a harvesting business in a few more years of climate change (you appear not to be a denier)...and the financial impacts. Increasingly unpredictable timing of budding, ripening, flying staff over from wherever, rainfall etc is going to be expensive, as might be changing crop. Can prices cover costs? Who knows.

Im keeping my holding.... short term, probably be approximately OK...and long term food is likely to remain a requirement. And i like the company. But the scale of variation offers plenty to mull over re future dividend stream medium term.
Just saying.

[GTM 3442]

So we have climate change. At the moment, New Zealand grows kiwifruit in places which have a climate suitable for growing kiwifruit.
As the climate changes, these places are likely to become less suitable for growing kiwifruit. But other places will become suitable for growing kiwifruit.

I don’t think that the kiwifruit industry will disappear, I think it will move.

And moving a whole industry- not just the cultivated land used to grow the crop, but all the associated infrastructure - together with the people needed to staff the industry, is going to require massive amounts of capital expenditure.
And that’s not capital for expansion and growth, but capital to simply maintain the industry at it’s current size.

It’s going to be a huge project.

Think of the position than New Zealand King Salmon find themselves in – having to migrate their operations some hundreds of kilometres south if they’re to survive.

Think in terms of the vast sums sunk into the development of the South Island dairy industry over the past couple of decades.

As climate change progresses, I think there’s going to be a huge change in New Zealand’s land use patterns as various crops and industries have to up sticks and move to survive. Taking their workforce with them. And requiring all the associated infrastructure to support both the people and the industries.

Horticulture has been good to me over the years, but I find my investment timeframe shortening.

[BlackPeter]

What false claims?

...


Well, you said:



...

Freight issues have been "normal" for at least 2 years

...



Clear evidence that you have no clue whatsoever what you are talking about. Where have you been the last two years - behind the moon?





...

The share price is down 7%, so the market clearly thinks the numbers and outlook look horrible.

I suppose you missed looking at the volume before crying wolf - didn't you? At the time you made this statement less than 1000 shares had changed hands (and overall despite your significant downramping and smearing the company efforts it was still just a trickle).

[bull....]

So we have climate change. At the moment, New Zealand grows kiwifruit in places which have a climate suitable for growing kiwifruit.
As the climate changes, these places are likely to become less suitable for growing kiwifruit. But other places will become suitable for growing kiwifruit.

I don’t think that the kiwifruit industry will disappear, I think it will move.

And moving a whole industry- not just the cultivated land used to grow the crop, but all the associated infrastructure - together with the people needed to staff the industry, is going to require massive amounts of capital expenditure.
And that’s not capital for expansion and growth, but capital to simply maintain the industry at it’s current size.

It’s going to be a huge project.

Think of the position than New Zealand King Salmon find themselves in – having to migrate their operations some hundreds of kilometres south if they’re to survive.

Think in terms of the vast sums sunk into the development of the South Island dairy industry over the past couple of decades.

As climate change progresses, I think there’s going to be a huge change in New Zealand’s land use patterns as various crops and industries have to up sticks and move to survive. Taking their workforce with them. And requiring all the associated infrastructure to support both the people and the industries.

Horticulture has been good to me over the years, but I find my investment timeframe shortening.

well said , nobody can predict where this climate change will take us.
just look at the disruption to insurance companies as an example of another industry being effected.

[Jaa]

Well, you said:




Clear evidence that you have no clue whatsoever what you are talking about. Where have you been the last two years - behind the moon?




I suppose you missed looking at the volume before crying wolf - didn't you? At the time you made this statement less than 1000 shares had changed hands (and overall despite your significant downramping and smearing the company efforts it was still just a trickle).

"Normal" as in the new normal, keep up. Freight issues have been a constant for the last two years so can't be considered surprising anymore. Planning to have major equipment delivered in April right as the season kicks into high gear strikes me as poor project management.

As for the volume, I checked the depth which correctly signalled a big drop as their were lots of sellers at lower prices. You should try looking at it, might help you.

[Jaa]

So we have climate change. At the moment, New Zealand grows kiwifruit in places which have a climate suitable for growing kiwifruit.
As the climate changes, these places are likely to become less suitable for growing kiwifruit. But other places will become suitable for growing kiwifruit.

I don’t think that the kiwifruit industry will disappear, I think it will move.

And moving a whole industry- not just the cultivated land used to grow the crop, but all the associated infrastructure - together with the people needed to staff the industry, is going to require massive amounts of capital expenditure.
And that’s not capital for expansion and growth, but capital to simply maintain the industry at it’s current size.

It’s going to be a huge project.

Think of the position than New Zealand King Salmon find themselves in – having to migrate their operations some hundreds of kilometres south if they’re to survive.

Think in terms of the vast sums sunk into the development of the South Island dairy industry over the past couple of decades.

As climate change progresses, I think there’s going to be a huge change in New Zealand’s land use patterns as various crops and industries have to up sticks and move to survive. Taking their workforce with them. And requiring all the associated infrastructure to support both the people and the industries.

Horticulture has been good to me over the years, but I find my investment timeframe shortening.

A more likely possibility is the industry shifts to newer more tolerant varieties over time. The industry has done this successfully before with gold which has also helped NZ keep its competitive advantage. Not without major cost but this fell more on the growers.

[bull....]

"Normal" as in the new normal, keep up. Freight issues have been a constant for the last two years so can't be considered surprising anymore. Planning to have major equipment delivered in April right as the season kicks into high gear strikes me as poor project management.

As for the volume, I checked the depth which correctly signalled a big drop as their were lots of sellers at lower prices. You should try looking at it, might help you.

your right.

BP caught out smoking the funny weed again
head in the clouds probably annoyed he's underwater and cant sell his 10000 share's cause there is no volume to sell too

[Getty]

Reported shipping shortages for NZ exports has intrigued me.

For most of the peak export season of 6 months, Hawkes Bay had 3 to 5 ships at anchor, waiting to berth at Napier Port.

If there was any shortage of shipping, you think it would be the other way round, no ships at anchor, and 3 to 5 empty berths at the port.

[BlackPeter]

Reported shipping shortages for NZ exports has intrigued me.

For most of the peak export season of 6 months, Hawkes Bay had 3 to 5 ships at anchor, waiting to berth at Napier Port.

If there was any shortage of shipping, you think it would be the other way round, no ships at anchor, and 3 to 5 empty berths at the port.

Interesting, but not clear how this fits into the current discussion, which is about delayed deliveries to NZ.

Who was talking about delayed exports?

The relevant machine parts had a hold up in Singapore - on the way to NZ ;)

[Getty]

Interesting, but not clear how this fits into the current discussion, which is about delayed deliveries to NZ.

Who was talking about delayed exports?

The relevant machine parts had a hold up in Singapore - on the way to NZ ;)

With respect BP, you are not the sole reporter of facts.

The newspapers and industry sources have had much to say about shipping shortages affecting NZ export schedules.

[Sideshow Bob]

Reported shipping shortages for NZ exports has intrigued me.

For most of the peak export season of 6 months, Hawkes Bay had 3 to 5 ships at anchor, waiting to berth at Napier Port.

If there was any shortage of shipping, you think it would be the other way round, no ships at anchor, and 3 to 5 empty berths at the port.

Issues facing shippers are not just about vessel calls - it is about costs, availability of refrigerated containers, space on vessels, schedules, port ommissions, destinations, often signifcant delays in arrivals/departures and delays/costs in clearance through destination ports.

Not sure what vessels might be waiting in Napier - could be tankers, bulk freighteres etc. Maersk pulled out of Napier earlier this year if I remember correctly.

Zespri always have a number of charter vessels, but other companies joined together (Turners, Talleys, Anzco etc) and chartered vessels also.

[Getty]

It appears the government has woken up to the effect on primary industry, due to their previous restrictions on foreign labour.

Some rules have been eased recently.

With regard to the RSE scheme, if there is any shortage of Pacific Island workers prepared to come to NZ, or damage to their own community from too many able bodied people being here, then there is vast potential to fill vacancies with Indonesians.

They have already been used locally, and proven to be very good.

All it needs is for the government to lift quotas.

Seeka management should be addressing this with govt, and then be able to clearly plan accommodation requirements.

My point is that if locals cannot fill the jobs, then there is no shortage of overseas workers, just limitations imposed by govt, with resultant damage to our economy with less exports.

[BlackPeter]

It appears the government has woken up to the effect on primary industry, due to their previous restrictions on foreign labour.

Some rules have been eased recently.

With regard to the RSE scheme, if there is any shortage of Pacific Island workers prepared to come to NZ, or damage to their own community from too many able bodied people being here, then there is vast potential to fill vacancies with Indonesians.

They have already been used locally, and proven to be very good.

All it needs is for the government to lift quotas.

Seeka management should be addressing this with govt, and then be able to clearly plan accommodation requirements.

My point is that if locals cannot fill the jobs, then there is no shortage of overseas workers, just limitations imposed by govt, with resultant damage to our economy with less exports.

Absolutely - the workers shortage is completely self inflicted ... our government shooting themselves again and again into the foot putting a xonophobe ideology above our economic well being. Slow learners :) ;

[whatsup]

It appears the government has woken up to the effect on primary industry, due to their previous restrictions on foreign labour.

Some rules have been eased recently.

With regard to the RSE scheme, if there is any shortage of Pacific Island workers prepared to come to NZ, or damage to their own community from too many able bodied people being here, then there is vast potential to fill vacancies with Indonesians.

They have already been used locally, and proven to be very good.

All it needs is for the government to lift quotas.

Seeka management should be addressing this with govt, and then be able to clearly plan accommodation requirements.

My point is that if locals cannot fill the jobs, then there is no shortage of overseas workers, just limitations imposed by govt, with resultant damage to our economy with less exports.

Great , but first the govt has to sort out the dreadful situation of the RSE worker accommodation as was reported on the last Sunday TV1 programme, absolutely a desecreatful !! $150 per man , 4 to a 10x 12 foot bunk room , no heat, drying, 1 towel for 2 weeks, not the way to treat badly needed workers on a minimum contract wage !!

[Muzz1234]

Great , but first the govt has to sort out the dreadful situation of the RSE worker accommodation as was reported on the last Sunday TV1 programme, absolutely a desecreatful !! $150 per man , 4 to a 10x 12 foot bunk room , no heat, drying, 1 towel for 2 weeks, not the way to treat badly needed workers on a minimum contract wage !!
i worked in rse industry up until 5 years ago surprised taken this long to catch on company i was employed by had ten ppl in three bedroom house paying 130 each 10 seater diesel van was 50 each per week there where minimum requirments for housing they where self policed filled out paper to work meet those requirments id hoped things had improved but obviously not as seeka shareholder hopefully they treat there workers A lot better

[Ferg]

I didn't see the programme. Were any of the poor operators named and shamed?

[Sideshow Bob]

I didn't see the programme. Were any of the poor operators named and shamed?

Not really named - but sure if you were in the industry or local you'd probably know.

Was filmed in Blenheim, and showed Bings and also another new build setup that had something like 4 people to a room, 6 rooms to a unit, and 9 units. They paid something like $145 per person per week and were taking in over $30k in rent a week.....!! :blink:

[RTM]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/worst-quality-kiwifruit-in-20-years-nz-brand-and-reputation-being-damaged-zespri-ceos-tough-message/7QVKSHHOEXWB6VNLW4VREZU6FM/

Headwinds for the industry. Fruit lacks taste. Does anyone know what the cause of that is ?

[BlackPeter]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/worst-quality-kiwifruit-in-20-years-nz-brand-and-reputation-being-damaged-zespri-ceos-tough-message/7QVKSHHOEXWB6VNLW4VREZU6FM/

Headwinds for the industry. Fruit lacks taste. Does anyone know what the cause of that is ?

Being one of the sufferers of Cindy's water quality distruction campaign (they just chlorinated our perfectly good township water supply in order to make sure everybody in NZ gets the same terrible driniking water) I'd say its the water.

Hoping however that they don't use our terrible NZ tap water to water our export Kiwis - it might be just the unseasonal rain ... it is well known in horticultural circles that too much water at the wrong time can water down the taste of many fruits - this might be true for Kiwifruit as well?

[RTM]

Being one of the sufferers of Cindy's water quality distruction campaign (they just chlorinated our perfectly good township water supply in order to make sure everybody in NZ gets the same terrible driniking water) I'd say its the water.

Hoping however that they don't use our terrible NZ tap water to water our export Kiwis - it might be just the unseasonal rain ... it is well known in horticultural circles that too much water at the wrong time can water down the taste of many fruits - this might be true for Kiwifruit as well?

Thanks BP...I can guess at a few causes as well. speed of growth of the fruit, sunshine hours, timing of prior two items during the fruit maturation, temperature, the possibilities are pretty long, although I wouldn't have tied it back to chlorinated water that's for sure.

But does anyone know what the industry thinks is the cause ? And if it can be remedied ?

[Getty]

Not really named - but sure if you were in the industry or local you'd probably know.

Was filmed in Blenheim, and showed Bings and also another new build setup that had something like 4 people to a room, 6 rooms to a unit, and 9 units. They paid something like $145 per person per week and were taking in over $30k in rent a week.....!! :blink:

To put some perspective into the $145 per week, or $20.71 per nite, go on Air B N B, available to Kiwis and international Tourists and the very cheapest nightly rate is $26, allowing for long term discount, otherwise $29.
For that, you get a 3 storey bunk, in a small room of 8, out at Spring Creek, not a single detached bed in a room of 4.

I invite anyone to check the photos on that site, and compare to the new build shown on TV.
If you want a single room, in a different locality, $68 per nite.

All very well for John Campbell to go and inspect, and infer its below his station, but the RSe's come here to make money, and save it, not spend on 'superior' accommodation.

After 4 to 5 seasons, they make enough to retire as wealthy people in their homelands.

Join the Navy, and see if you get better accommodation.

[whatsup]

Being one of the sufferers of Cindy's water quality distruction campaign (they just chlorinated our perfectly good township water supply in order to make sure everybody in NZ gets the same terrible driniking water) I'd say its the water.

Hoping however that they don't use our terrible NZ tap water to water our export Kiwis - it might be just the unseasonal rain ... it is well known in horticultural circles that too much water at the wrong time can water down the taste of many fruits - this might be true for Kiwifruit as well?

Are you for real, the water that falls on our orchard comes from the sky, no Cindy involved, clorination is for a reason, saving childrens teeth !!

[BlackPeter]

Are you for real, the water that falls on our orchard comes from the sky, no Cindy involved, clorination is for a reason, saving childrens teeth !!

OK - we deviate ... however - you clearly mix up chlorination (using chlorine, a poisonous and green gas put into the water to make it taste really bad - Oops - no, to kill all the bads in the sewage the government sells us as drinking water) and fluoridation (using floride salt which is tasteless and put into the water to reduce tooth decay in children whose parents are too lazy or too dumb to teech them cleaning their teeth!

Both are halogenes put into our water, but one is used as gas (chlorine) and the other as salt (flourine). Different purpose and different taste.

But we better go back to Seeka ...

[Sideshow Bob]

To put some perspective into the $145 per week, or $20.71 per nite, go on Air B N B, available to Kiwis and international Tourists and the very cheapest nightly rate is $26, allowing for long term discount, otherwise $29.
For that, you get a 3 storey bunk, in a small room of 8, out at Spring Creek, not a single detached bed in a room of 4.

I invite anyone to check the photos on that site, and compare to the new build shown on TV.
If you want a single room, in a different locality, $68 per nite.

All very well for John Campbell to go and inspect, and infer its below his station, but the RSe's come here to make money, and save it, not spend on 'superior' accommodation.

After 4 to 5 seasons, they make enough to retire as wealthy people in their homelands.

Join the Navy, and see if you get better accommodation.

Can't compare Air BNB with accomodation for your staff from overseas that you desperately need, that will be living there for several months a year.

[Getty]

Can't compare Air BNB with accomodation for your staff from overseas that you desperately need, that will be living there for several months a year.

I think you can, as a readily available reference point for all to see.

Much of Air BNB does get swallowed up by people on 6 month working visas, and others overstaying that time.
Providers do use it to advertise their offering, in a free and open market.

The challenge to anyone including John Campbell, who thinks the RSE workers are getting a raw deal, is to price it up, put their money where their mouth is, and undercut the existing purpose built facilities.

If Seeka provide or contract out the same purpose built accommodation as shown On TV, and exists here in Hawkes Bay, then I will be sleeping easy.

Dont forget these places have to comply with local body regulations, which are the same for Kiwis. .

[bull....]

must be a serious issue

Kiwifruit quality concerns could become a $500 million problem

Zespri chairman Bruce Cameron said in an update to the industry that fruit loss and quality claims were well above historical averages, and he expected it to continue to be a problem in future.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/129660515/kiwifruit-quality-concerns-could-become-a-500-million-problem

[Getty]

Director Fred Hutchings showing confidence by adding @ $40K @ $4.00 to his already sizeable holding.

[Biscuit]

must be a serious issue

Kiwifruit quality concerns could become a $500 million problem

Zespri chairman Bruce Cameron said in an update to the industry that fruit loss and quality claims were well above historical averages, and he expected it to continue to be a problem in future.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/129660515/kiwifruit-quality-concerns-could-become-a-500-million-problem


Seems a bit odd they don't fully understand the cause of the drop in quality. Physical damage caused by....? Surely they will get on top of this quickly.

[bull....]

Seems a bit odd they don't fully understand the cause of the drop in quality. Physical damage caused by....? Surely they will get on top of this quickly.

in the herald today zespri guy says it might take 2 -3 seasons. guess they have to allow time as they dont know anything about it yet

[iceman]

in the herald today zespri guy says it might take 2 -3 seasons. guess they have to allow time as they dont know anything about it yet
No surprises really. Working or investing in fishing, farming, fruiting, meating or dairying is full of unforeseen risk. The Board will deal with it

[Biscuit]

No surprises really. Working or investing in fishing, farming, fruiting, meating or dairying is full of unforeseen risk. The Board will deal with it

More likely the guys on the ground are already dealing with it and management and the board will eventually take the credit.

[Jaa]

Thanks BP...I can guess at a few causes as well. speed of growth of the fruit, sunshine hours, timing of prior two items during the fruit maturation, temperature, the possibilities are pretty long, although I wouldn't have tied it back to chlorinated water that's for sure.

But does anyone know what the industry thinks is the cause ? And if it can be remedied ?

Zespri Chairman and CEO in the paper this morning reading the riot act to the industry and clearly stating the labour shortage led to the fruit quality issues.


Labour was a "huge" part of the quality problem, Mathieson said.

"It's leading to sub-optimal picking and a shortage of people to do the proper quality checks on the packing lines."

So lack of pickers and pack house graders basically.

Predictable shortcuts were made but very short sighted IMO. Better to have had a smaller crop but maintained quality (at higher prices) than to do long term damage to Zespri's reputation for consistent high quality. Been many complaints... "We're now seeing consumers in China talk about fruit quality on social media." Remember if its average quality kiwifruit you want plenty of other countries to buy from at much lower prices.

Solution is apparently license changes. I didn't understand from the article if this meant more Gold licenses or less. To me it seems the current state of the industry is unsustainable and the days of rapid volume growth are over and there should be less licenses and acres grown (bad news for Seeka).

No guarantee Kiwis will put up with indentured labour to bail out the industry either. Which is what the RSE scheme is showing signs of becoming and what importing foreign labour from SEA or South Asia would make a lot worse. Even if the NZ end operates humanely which it doesn't always even now, the labour suppliers in the source countries are anything but which would harm NZ's global reputation.

Do we want to become Qatar?

Kiwifruit reputation under threat (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/worst-quality-kiwifruit-in-20-years-nz-brand-and-reputation-being-damaged-zespri-ceos-tough-message/7QVKSHHOEXWB6VNLW4VREZU6FM/)

[epower]

Seems a bit odd they don't fully understand the cause of the drop in quality. Physical damage caused by....? Surely they will get on top of this quickly.

Caused by picking gangs ‘rain dropping’ so it just drops into their front pack and bruises from height. Largely labour shortage and paying people incentives by paying by bin instead of per hour. Labourers on the orchard (in their own best interest) just pick as fast as they can. Why should they care about quality when they are getting paid to fill that bin as fast as possible?

2nd is at the packhouses. Less staff to quality check fruit firstly whilst packing (to grade it correctly) and secondly when you quality inspect and repack the pallets not enough staff so dodgy stuff like only repacking a handful of boxes on the pallet you know the Zespri auditor is going to check and the remaining fruit on those pallets and unaudited orders simply gets eased through the system leading to poor quality in market overseas.

The kiwifruit industry is crumbling under its own success due to rapid GA fruit exports and not enough people to pick/pack/ship

[Biscuit]

Caused by picking gangs ‘rain dropping’ so it just drops into their front pack and bruises from height. Largely labour shortage and paying people incentives by paying by bin instead of per hour. Labourers on the orchard (in their own best interest) just pick as fast as they can. Why should they care about quality when they are getting paid to fill that bin as fast as possible?

2nd is at the packhouses. Less staff to quality check fruit firstly whilst packing (to grade it correctly) and secondly when you quality inspect and repack the pallets not enough staff so dodgy stuff like only repacking a handful of boxes on the pallet you know the Zespri auditor is going to check and the remaining fruit on those pallets and unaudited orders simply gets eased through the system leading to poor quality in market overseas.

The kiwifruit industry is crumbling under its own success due to rapid GA fruit exports and not enough people to pick/pack/ship


That sounds feasible and fixable. Hard job picking fruit - did a bit of that in South Australia in my 20s. You need a decent supply of motivated workers.

[epower]

That sounds feasible and fixable. Hard job picking fruit - did a bit of that in South Australia in my 20s. You need a decent supply of motivated workers.

Yes mostly RSE’s and South American backpackers. Border restrictions obviously had a large impact on those sources.

[bull....]

Kiwifruit growers give Zespri offshore expansion plans thumbs-down
https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/news/business/kiwifruit-growers-say-no-to-zespri-plan-for-more-overseas-growing/

[BlackPeter]

Kiwifruit growers give Zespri offshore expansion plans thumbs-down
https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/news/business/kiwifruit-growers-say-no-to-zespri-plan-for-more-overseas-growing/

In what way is this relevant for Seeka?

[bull....]

In what way is this relevant for Seeka?
oh i thought if you grow a market offshore mean more kiwifruit needed to export mean more kiwifruit going thru seeka packhouses

[GTM 3442]

oh i thought if you grow a market offshore mean more kiwifruit needed to export mean more kiwifruit going thru seeka packhouses

Oh, I'm sure that the Italians and Iranians will step up. . .

[winner69]

In what way is this relevant for Seeka?

Last Seeka Annual Report mention ‘Zespri’ >1,000 times so must be some connection


The Group, however, is impacted by the level of Zespri's market returns which impact on the Group's orchard profitability.

[Mr Slothbear]

Oh, I'm sure that the Italians and Iranians will step up. . .


any northern hemisphere producer is producing seasonally inversely to NZ. South America would be a much bigger competitor / concern but luckily they seem to prefer sticking to avocados

[BlackPeter]

oh i thought if you grow a market offshore mean more kiwifruit needed to export mean more kiwifruit going thru seeka packhouses

Oh, you mean you thought that the additional overseas plantations would have sent their fruit to NZ so that Seeka can pack them? I think you misunderstood the proposal which the Zespri share holders turned down and you don't seem to understand the nature of their business ... but probably you didn't read the article anyway, did you?

[BlackPeter]

Last Seeka Annual Report mention ‘Zespri’ >1,000 times so must be some connection


The Group, however, is impacted by the level of Zespri's market returns which impact on the Group's orchard profitability.

Thousand is a big number. Are you sure? Given that a standard page contains 300 words, they must have filled 3.3 pages just with the word Zespri. That's impressive!

Anyway - still does not clarify how it impacts Seeka if Zespri shareholders decide not to grant overseas growers more licences for growing Kiwi fruit.

[bull....]

Oh, you mean you thought that the additional overseas plantations would have sent their fruit to NZ so that Seeka can pack them? I think you misunderstood the proposal which the Zespri share holders turned down and you don't seem to understand the nature of their business ... but probably you didn't read the article anyway, did you?

like they said in article they want to be a 12 mth yr business. so as you create new markets oversea's with plantings there and create awareness of the brand that opens more opportunities to send fruit from nz later on to fill gaps etc.

[winner69]

Thousand is a big number. Are you sure? Given that a standard page contains 300 words, they must have filled 3.3 pages just with the word Zespri. That's impressive!

Anyway - still does not clarify how it impacts Seeka if Zespri shareholders decide not to grant overseas growers more licences for growing Kiwi fruit.

Another browser says 7 times .... knew I should not rely on an Apple device

But kiwifruit in common .... and Seeka says their profits affected by Zespri performance ..... so Seeka 'investors' should sort of know about what happens in the industry

[epower]

NZ kiwifruit is a late Feb-early Nov crop in NZ for exporting so if fruit is grown overseas within this time period it’s competing against itself.

Hence growers in NZ (eg Seeka packed orchards) will be competing against Italian and Chilean orchards, reducing their prices. So less fruit grown in NZ as a result = bad for Seeka.

So the need to vote it down = good for Seeka because more volume from NZ particularly GA/gold fruit which require the licences.

[bull....]

NZ kiwifruit is a late Feb-early Nov crop in NZ for exporting so if fruit is grown overseas within this time period it’s competing against itself.

Hence growers in NZ (eg Seeka packed orchards) will be competing against Italian and Chilean orchards, reducing their prices. So less fruit grown in NZ as a result = bad for Seeka.

So the need to vote it down = good for Seeka because more volume from NZ particularly GA/gold fruit which require the licences.

yes but your implying zespri couldnt grow there market share to benefit everyone. not everyone agree's with this as per the vote results

[bull....]

looks like niwa saying next yr mght be bad for weather

Higher food prices likely, as farmers face more extreme weather next year

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/129805021/higher-food-prices-likely-as-farmers-face-more-extreme-weather-next-year

[IAK]

Not a great look for Seeka. Migrant workers living at school camp forced to endure 'unacceptable' conditions: Labour Inspectorate
https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/129976215/migrant-workers-living-at-school-camp-forced-to-endure-unacceptable-conditions-labour-inspectorate

[Nevl]

Not a great look for Seeka. Migrant workers living at school camp forced to endure 'unacceptable' conditions: Labour Inspectorate
https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/129976215/migrant-workers-living-at-school-camp-forced-to-endure-unacceptable-conditions-labour-inspectorate

And the answers from the Seeka CEO were time deaf at best. Seriously the guy needs a good hard look in the mirror. Or maybe be the next leader of the National party.

Anyway I don't think what he said will endear him to the investigators and will lead to issues for Seeka.

[iceman]

Not a great look for Seeka. Migrant workers living at school camp forced to endure 'unacceptable' conditions: Labour Inspectorate
https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/129976215/migrant-workers-living-at-school-camp-forced-to-endure-unacceptable-conditions-labour-inspectorate

Agree on the face of it this is not a great look. But I'd like to know the full story, not just what Stuff reports.

[percy]

" Seeka had leased a more convenient facility closer for the Rotorua workers, and was building a new facility to replace the Katikati site."

[Jaa]

Very frustrated that Seeka, the industry's best funded and resourced company has been found in breech twice and the CEO is still in denial. Where is the public apology, compensation to those affected and vow to do better?

Postponing the build of the replacement worker facility in Katikati while rapidly purchasing orchards and packing houses also shows poor planning and management. Will 140 beds even be enough or will they make the same mistake and try to squeeze in 280?


A $5 million new orchard worker accommodation that's more than double the size initially planned pre-Covid will be built for 140 recognised seasonal staff in Katikati.
..
It comes at a cost of $5m, up from $1.6m when initially planned in 2018, and postponed due to the uncertainty of bringing in seasonal workers due to government-imposed Covid-19 restrictions. - https://www.nzherald.co.nz/bay-of-plenty-times/news/5-million-accommodation-for-vital-seasonal-workers-in-katikati/Z5HP3K7FLHCHF6DBQIQFHYOXJA/

Not often I agree with the Green Party on Labour issues but they are right, NZ's reputation is at risk. US and Europe (30% of kiwifruit exports) take migrant labour abuses extremely seriously and can unilaterally block imports if these abuses continue.


The Green Party’s Pacific people’s spokesperson Teanau Tuiono said ... Any increase to the RSE numbers should be stopped while a planned review of the system was brought forward. - https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/129976215/migrant-workers-living-at-school-camp-forced-to-endure-unacceptable-conditions-labour-inspectorate

Michael Franks should be fired for cause without severance. He has put at risk the supply of workers he claims the company desperately needs.

[bull....]

nz is well known for using slave labour in certain industries .. so the story is hardly surprising. but still not a good look

[IAK]

Franks needs to come out and clear this up. I just can't believe there are only 2 washing machines for 160 people and it costs $150 a week to share a cabin with 3 other people. Crikey, students on Castle Street have it better than this.

[Sideshow Bob]

Zespri's latest update for interest:

https://www.usx.co.nz/uploads/paperclip/documents/2677/original/2022-09_Zespri_Industry_Update_from_Chief_Global_Supply _Officer_Alastair_Hulbert-_29_September.pdf?1664403809

[RTM]

Not sure I am looking forward to this....


https://announcements.nzx.com/detail/399802

3/10/2022, 8:30 am GENERAL
Seeka Limited [NZX:SEK] advises that its stakeholder update will be at 3pm on Thursday 20 October 2022.

Seeka Chairperson Fred Hutchings and Chief Executive Michael Franks will present Seeka’s interim financial results for the six months to June 2022, and update stakeholders on Seeka’s operations.

The 2022 stakeholder update will be held at Seeka's Head Office and via a Zoom Webinar.

Venue:
Seeka Head Office
34 Young Road
Paengaroa 3186

Zoom Link:
https://seeka.zoom.us/j/81788492172

[bull....]

gee some more bad luck from freak weather

Seeka updates market on frost event
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/400342

[whatsup]

gee some more bad luck from freak weather

Seeka updates market on frost event
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/400342

But not the major growing areas of the PoP, only Waikato was effected which is a very very very minor growing area.

[winner69]

But not the major growing areas of the PoP, only Waikato was effected which is a very very very minor growing area.

...so no real need for them to say anything and scare the market

Whats the impact of 3.5m and 4.0m class 1 trays in $ terms?

[bull....]

...so no real need for them to say anything and scare the market

Whats the impact of 3.5m and 4.0m class 1 trays in $ terms?

17 million lost revenue ? 9% trays packed ?

[bull....]

interesting article in herald saying fruit loss from frost could be much more

Frost wipes out kiwifruit crops, income and jeopardises harvest volumes
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/frost-wipes-out-kiwifruit-crops-income-and-jeopardises-harvest-volumes/5FEQV7IVRXEPW5RLDZSKX3JKJ4/

all kiwifruit packhouses saying more time needed to access full damage , also they saying some damage may not become evident until many mths later in 2023 due to fruit reject issue's when it matures.

all in all i guess seeka's est is guesstimate at this stage and next yr might become a bad yr if fruit loss due to this frost becomes more evident

[BlackPeter]

interesting article in herald saying fruit loss from frost could be much more

Frost wipes out kiwifruit crops, income and jeopardises harvest volumes
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/frost-wipes-out-kiwifruit-crops-income-and-jeopardises-harvest-volumes/5FEQV7IVRXEPW5RLDZSKX3JKJ4/

all kiwifruit packhouses saying more time needed to access full damage , also they saying some damage may not become evident until many mths later in 2023 due to fruit reject issue's when it matures.

all in all i guess seeka's est is guesstimate at this stage and next yr might become a bad yr if fruit loss due to this frost becomes more evident

Times are very bad indeed if you are chased by a raging bull (even if its just a bear in disguise) :) ;

Poor Seeka, hope they are able to recover from this sustained down ramp ... :p;

[bull....]

Times are very bad indeed if you are chased by a raging bull (even if its just a bear in disguise) :) ;

Poor Seeka, hope they are able to recover from this sustained down ramp ... :p;

lol down ramp
im just presenting a news article for people to read. i didnt write it

for whatsup they say in the article bop hit hard


actually do you think there will be more selling of share's by orchard owners now as they will need the money to cover losses from frost. they have to sell there incentive share's quickly ?

[BlackPeter]

lol down ramp
im just presenting a news article for people to read. i didnt write it

for whatsup they say in the article bop hit hard


actually do you think there will be more selling of share's by orchard owners now as they will need the money to cover losses from frost. they have to sell there incentive share's quickly ?

Good years and bad years are just part of the normal agricultural cycle. Farmers who sell in bad years and buy in good years are not just bad farmers, but as well bad traders.

Good farmers and orchardists have a long term view (hint for you: long term means not up to tomorrow morning, but well beyond the next harvest), and they will see that long term everything is stacked up for them to win.

Number of people on this globe still increasing (and will until at least the second part of this century), fresh food is getting scarce, growing conditions in NZ will stay more favourably than in other parts of the climate change effected globe, and Seeka is a well managed company.

So - just keep down ramping ... good buying opportunity for anybody who is able to look further than to the tip of their nose ... and who does not need the invested money short term.

[Jaa]

interesting article in herald saying fruit loss from frost could be much more

Frost wipes out kiwifruit crops, income and jeopardises harvest volumes
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/frost-wipes-out-kiwifruit-crops-income-and-jeopardises-harvest-volumes/5FEQV7IVRXEPW5RLDZSKX3JKJ4/

all kiwifruit packhouses saying more time needed to access full damage , also they saying some damage may not become evident until many mths later in 2023 due to fruit reject issue's when it matures.

all in all i guess seeka's est is guesstimate at this stage and next yr might become a bad yr if fruit loss due to this frost becomes more evident

After this season's debacle, Zespri can ill afford another season with poor fruit quality.

Guess it helps solve some of the labour shortage!

[Getty]

After this season's debacle, Zespri can ill afford another season with poor fruit quality.

Guess it helps solve some of the labour shortage!

Without being cynical, you have made a good point.

The frost could be a blessing in disguise, as what labour is available can concentrate on doing a better job on the remaining fruit, than last season.
Better pack outs equals better prices and customer satisfaction.

Commiserations to those growers who have lost their crops of course.

[Jaa]

Without being cynical, you have made a good point.

The frost could be a blessing in disguise, as what labour is available can concentrate on doing a better job on the remaining fruit, than last season.
Better pack outs equals better prices and customer satisfaction.

Commiserations to those growers who have lost their crops of course.

Agree, long term that is the best approach. Quality over quantity.

Would make for a bad year for packhouses like Seeka that toll fruit throughput. Unless the damaged fruit isn't thinned early (lack of workers) from the orchards and needs to get graded in the packhouse which would be worse for everyone else.

In other news, CEO reckons Seeka deserves a bit of slack as paying people accurately takes time. Also considering lowering wages for NZ workers in a period of high inflation while lobbying for more RSE workers. Interesting strategy. :confused:
Kiwifruit picking pay clash as Seeka, union prepare for 2023 harvest season (https://www.stuff.co.nz/bay-of-plenty/129975599/kiwifruit-picking-pay-clash-as-seeka-union-prepare-for-2023-harvest-season)

[whatsup]

...so no real need for them to say anything and scare the market

Whats the impact of 3.5m and 4.0m class 1 trays in $ terms?

Seeka charges approx $2- 2.50 per tray to pack !, say $ 8 mil, U S $ currency variation for a year if it was all packed by Seeka, but as I understand it there are many pack houses who pack Waikato Kfruit some in the Waikato.

[BlackPeter]

Just listening into the shareholder update.

The slides are here: https://www.nzx.com/announcements/400924

Admittedly - I don't think that anybody is watching for the presentation skills of the chair, and the (already published) numbers are not that inspirational either. After a list of reasons for the not that flash HY results (and yes, operating with only 75% of the needed staff is not fun ... and the bad weather events didn't help either) and a summary of these results he goes over to ESG. Hmmm.

Ah yes - board still thinking about a final dividend, but he didn't sounded that optimistic (referring to the frost event).

The CEO who followed is at least somewhat better to listen to. Explaining the RSA workers situation ... tough to accommodate 90 people on Sunday if Friday is the first time you hear they are coming. However, all people accommodated according to standards and with approval of the Labour department

Fruit quality issues seem to come down to doing too much with not enough people.

One positiv thing: They are supplying Costco in Auckland.


So - how does the future look?

Some of the losses this year probably covered by insurance claim

Operational improvements ...

Worker availability should be better with open(er) borders again

CEO is talking a lot about automation, and yes, they recently received some cool picking, grading, packing and stacking machines.

Trying some new fruit ... kiwiberry having outstanding results.

What can I say?

If there are next year less handbrakes (and yes, some clearly should be removed) they probably do better.

Hopefully the automation can help as well.

Am I inspired? - Not really, but hey this is a fruit packing business.

[bull....]

Just listening into the shareholder update.

The slides are here: https://www.nzx.com/announcements/400924

Admittedly - I don't think that anybody is watching for the presentation skills of the chair, and the (already published) numbers are not that inspirational either. After a list of reasons for the not that flash HY results (and yes, operating with only 75% of the needed staff is not fun ... and the bad weather events didn't help either) and a summary of these results he goes over to ESG. Hmmm.

Ah yes - board still thinking about a final dividend, but he didn't sounded that optimistic (referring to the frost event).

The CEO who followed is at least somewhat better to listen to. Explaining the RSA workers situation ... tough to accommodate 90 people on Sunday if Friday is the first time you hear they are coming. However, all people accommodated according to standards and with approval of the Labour department

Fruit quality issues seem to come down to doing too much with not enough people.

One positiv thing: They are supplying Costco in Auckland.


So - how does the future look?

Some of the losses this year probably covered by insurance claim

Operational improvements ...

Worker availability should be better with open(er) borders again

CEO is talking a lot about automation, and yes, they recently received some cool picking, grading, packing and stacking machines.

Trying some new fruit ... kiwiberry having outstanding results.

What can I say?

If there are next year less handbrakes (and yes, some clearly should be removed) they probably do better.

Hopefully the automation can help as well.

Am I inspired? - Not really, but hey this is a fruit packing business.

did anyone ask if frost event loss was a guess ? considering they wont know full extent of damage to next yr

guess the div makes sense if they paid out a full yr of 26c that mean a loss for the full yr?

[BlackPeter]

did anyone ask if frost event loss was a guess ? considering they wont know full extent of damage to next yr

guess the div makes sense if they paid out a full yr of 26c that mean a loss for the full yr?

They talked about the frost event ... and it sounded they expected that other areas got a touch of frost as well ... but too early to say what and how bad the impact on the harvest will be. So, yes, it clearly is a guess ... how educated? Time will tell.

[bull....]

They talked about the frost event ... and it sounded they expected that other areas got a touch of frost as well ... but too early to say what and how bad the impact on the harvest will be. So, yes, it clearly is a guess ... how educated? Time will tell.

cheers.
like you say have to take the good with the bad esp when it comes to weather events

[bull....]

here's some more news to factor into seeka full yr results

according to zespri 10 - 15% guestimate of a decline in volumes for next yr based on frost event
green kiwifruit growers now losing money due to inflationary costs

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/zespri-offers-relief-to-hard-pressed-green-fruit-growers-with-special-access-to-gold-licences/7QFW7NG525AULRV4M2LAVJW7NE/

[peat]

I say it all the time , and not just about owning shares in Seeka, "Horticulture is risky!"
I thought the half year looked good, but of course its from June. things have changed a lot

[RTM]

Just listening into the shareholder update.

The slides are here: https://www.nzx.com/announcements/400924

Admittedly - I don't think that anybody is watching for the presentation skills of the chair, and the (already published) numbers are not that inspirational either. After a list of reasons for the not that flash HY results (and yes, operating with only 75% of the needed staff is not fun ... and the bad weather events didn't help either) and a summary of these results he goes over to ESG. Hmmm.

.

Thanks for taking the time to summarise.

[RTM]

Anyone know how SEEKA are faring in Australia with respect to the flooding ?

[BlackPeter]

Anyone know how SEEKA are faring in Australia with respect to the flooding ?

From memory - their Australian plantings are somewhat higher than the surrounding lakes and rivers. I checked that some years ago when drought (i.e. access to water) was the main issue.

But anyway, if there would be any material issues, I am sure they would tell us :) ;

[bull....]

:scared: new lows today .... i was thinking growers might have to start selling there incentive share's to cover orchard losses this yr from the frost event.

[iceman]

:scared: new lows today .... i was thinking growers might have to start selling there incentive share's to cover orchard losses this yr from the frost event.

I am not surprised really. They are having "annus horribilis" with everything that has hit them this year, all out of their control and 10 hectares currently under water in Australia.

[bull....]

I am not surprised really. They are having "annus horribilis" with everything that has hit them this year, all out of their control and 10 hectares currently under water in Australia.

i didnt know 10ha was under water

[BlackPeter]

I am not surprised really. They are having "annus horribilis" with everything that has hit them this year, all out of their control and 10 hectares currently under water in Australia.


i didnt know 10ha was under water

Me neither ... and it does not seem to be newsworthy (no disclosure and not even Dr. Google seems to know about it).

iceman ... I guess this sounds interesting, could you give us a hint where this information is coming from?

[percy]

Was reported on Victorian Flooding News about Shepparton floods.
Seeka's orchards are at Shepparton.https://www.bing.com/news/search?q=shepparton+victoria+flooding&qpvt=shepparton+victoria+flooding&FORM=EWRE

[BlackPeter]

Was reported on Victorian Flooding News about Shepparton floods.
Seeka's orchards are at Shepparton.

Well yes, floods in Shepparton.

However - did they really report that 10 ha of Seeka's orchards are flooded, or is this just iceman's assumption?

Do we know anything about the potential damage? I guess a bit of water in spring is not necessarily a problem for the plants.

Anyway - given that Seeka has some 500 hectars of Kiwi orchards in Shepparton, I trust that 10 ha flooded are (no matter whether it happened or not) not material.

[iceman]

Me neither ... and it does not seem to be newsworthy (no disclosure and not even Dr. Google seems to know about it).

iceman ... I guess this sounds interesting, could you give us a hint where this information is coming from?

Head Office. Not just my assumption as you suggest but obviously not material as it has not been flagged.

[BlackPeter]

Head Office. Not just my assumption as you suggest but obviously not material as it has not been flagged.

Cheers. Any information on the damage (if any) done?

[iceman]

Cheers. Any information on the damage (if any) done?

Unknown but not a big concern by the sounds of it

[BlackPeter]

Unknown but not a big concern by the sounds of it

Thanks for this clarification.

[bull....]

nashi pears seeka do at shepparton.
anyway i see climate change is wrecking havoc on australian food producers as well

Survival of the fittest’: Farmers, food giants are fighting more than floods
Food players of all sizes across the supply chain – including some of Australia’s largest food producers, household names such as Bega, Costa and Milklab maker’s Noumi – have been at the pointy end of extreme weather events that are occurring more frequently and with greater intensity.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/survival-of-the-fittest-farmers-food-giants-are-fighting-more-than-floods-20221018-p5bqo7.html

any investor obviously has to realize weather events look like they may be becoming normal part of business

[BlackPeter]

nashi pears seeka do at shepparton.
anyway i see climate change is wrecking havoc on australian food producers as well

Survival of the fittest’: Farmers, food giants are fighting more than floods
Food players of all sizes across the supply chain – including some of Australia’s largest food producers, household names such as Bega, Costa and Milklab maker’s Noumi – have been at the pointy end of extreme weather events that are occurring more frequently and with greater intensity.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/survival-of-the-fittest-farmers-food-giants-are-fighting-more-than-floods-20221018-p5bqo7.html

any investor obviously has to realize weather events look like they may be becoming normal part of business




Clearly - extreme weather events will increase. Suppose however that the need for food will remain constant, unless global warming starts to reduce the number of humans in a material way.

Given this situation are global warming and extreme weather events just part of the normal business impacting on all food producers. The impact will be like the impact of the Ukraine war on oil companies - price of the product goes up. Higher risks, but for the prepared (and the lucky) organisations as well higher windfall profits ahead.

[Perky]

I know there are a few Seeka holders on this forum. Just wondering what your currently doing with your holdings?

I did a bit of reading last year of the predicted export market growth and decided to start building a small position. Bought a few thousand shares between 4.70 and 5.10 but when they reported the size of this years profit downgrade…I sold at 4.74 for a small loss to sit on the sidelines and watch.

Well I’m still watching but my spidey senses are tingling getting ready to buy in again.
BUT…the shares are continuing to drop and the whole industry seems a bit negative at the moment. Zespri reducing amount of licence area and just appears in response to last season everyone’s just slowing down.

Seeka looks like it bit off a bit much and forgot to chew! The new packing expansion , labour issues, weather and failure to get some of their processing equipment working ahead of season was like a perfect storm but seem relatively short term issues which should not exist next season.

Just wondering what some of the longer term holders think and anyone with industry knowledge think about the next 5-10 yrs for the industry before my spidey senses get the better of me.

I guess the delayed decision on the dividend might be impacting the share price as well.

Thanks in advance for any thoughts.

[BlackPeter]

I know there are a few Seeka holders on this forum. Just wondering what your currently doing with your holdings?

I did a bit of reading last year of the predicted export market growth and decided to start building a small position. Bought a few thousand shares between 4.70 and 5.10 but when they reported the size of this years profit downgrade…I sold at 4.74 for a small loss to sit on the sidelines and watch.

Well I’m still watching but my spidey senses are tingling getting ready to buy in again.
BUT…the shares are continuing to drop and the whole industry seems a bit negative at the moment. Zespri reducing amount of licence area and just appears in response to last season everyone’s just slowing down.

Seeka looks like it bit off a bit much and forgot to chew! The new packing expansion , labour issues, weather and failure to get some of their processing equipment working ahead of season was like a perfect storm but seem relatively short term issues which should not exist next season.

Just wondering what some of the longer term holders think and anyone with industry knowledge think about the next 5-10 yrs for the industry before my spidey senses get the better of me.

I guess the delayed decision on the dividend might be impacting the share price as well.

Thanks in advance for any thoughts.

Well, I do hold some Seeka shares since 2018. Not sure, whether this qualifies me for a long term holder?

Clearly - there are some risks on the horizon, mainly related to climate change, but climate change offers as well opportunities. People will want fresh fruit in the future as well, and the producers who are able to provide it will have a profitable business.

They are somewhat diversified (re crops and regions), but this is certainly something they still could work on.

Their management is sound as far as I am concerned.

As any agricultural business are they cyclical, and buying in the lower parts of the cycle is normally a better investment than buying in the upper parts of the cycle.

Nobody can tell you, whether they already reached the bottom, and some will just echo the message of the current downtrend. However - as far as I am concerned its not the end of the world and the cycle will turn around - certainly at some stage, maybe now. Current SP is very low compared to the long term average - normally better to buy low and sell high, but who am I to say?

Anyway - it is your money and you need to decide for yourself :) :

[percy]

I know there are a few Seeka holders on this forum. Just wondering what your currently doing with your holdings?

I did a bit of reading last year of the predicted export market growth and decided to start building a small position. Bought a few thousand shares between 4.70 and 5.10 but when they reported the size of this years profit downgrade…I sold at 4.74 for a small loss to sit on the sidelines and watch.

Well I’m still watching but my spidey senses are tingling getting ready to buy in again.
BUT…the shares are continuing to drop and the whole industry seems a bit negative at the moment. Zespri reducing amount of licence area and just appears in response to last season everyone’s just slowing down.

Seeka looks like it bit off a bit much and forgot to chew! The new packing expansion , labour issues, weather and failure to get some of their processing equipment working ahead of season was like a perfect storm but seem relatively short term issues which should not exist next season.

Just wondering what some of the longer term holders think and anyone with industry knowledge think about the next 5-10 yrs for the industry before my spidey senses get the better of me.

I guess the delayed decision on the dividend might be impacting the share price as well.

Thanks in advance for any thoughts.

I think you have covered the issues.
I sold half our holding in June at $4.7392 and July at 4.71.
Depending on results and out look, I may buy back the shares I sold.
i doubt that the outlook will change for some time.
Long term I like the sector and the company.
Michael Franks is an excellent CEO.

[iceman]

I think Perky and BlackPeter have covered the situation nicely. I've been investsed in SEK for over 10 years with various quanatities of shares, as I would like to have some exposure to this industry long term.
I'm not sure I agree they've bit of more than they can chew but of course it takes time to get such fast expansion fully and successfully imbedded. I think it is more that they have had an "annus horribilis" with several weather related situations, lack of staff and the big one has been unexplained (so far) lack of fruit quality. Combined these have caused a major upset for the business and indeed the industry as a whole.

Discl: I sold half my holding in July and the other half a month ago. Will most likely enter the register again but feel this may be some time off yet

[Perky]

Awesome. Thanks for your replies. So 2 out of 3 lived up to the shareTrader name and sold. The mysterious BP didn’t disclose but guessing he’s made so much over the years he just holds.

Intersting iceman that you sold out totally after holding 10 yrs

I definitely want to buy low to de risk as it’s a slightly risky industry at the whims of Mother Nature so I’m going to sit on the sidelines and wait to see what they do re dividend. I think there might be a little bit more downside risk in short term until will see interest rate peaks.

Thanks again for taking the time to reply…always appreciate hearing what some of you experienced operators think.

[BlackPeter]

Awesome. Thanks for your replies. So 2 out of 3 lived up to the shareTrader name and sold. The mysterious BP didn’t disclose but guessing he’s made so much over the years he just holds.

Intersting iceman that you sold out totally after holding 10 yrs

I definitely want to buy low to de risk as it’s a slightly risky industry at the whims of Mother Nature so I’m going to sit on the sidelines and wait to see what they do re dividend. I think there might be a little bit more downside risk in short term until will see interest rate peaks.

Thanks again for taking the time to reply…always appreciate hearing what some of you experienced operators think.

Not mysterious. I said I hold since 2018 some shares, and I did. Just checked - no sells on the register and I accumulated at times some more (including DRIP) ...

Overall - my Seeka holding is somewhat under water, but not by a percentage which would concern me.

[iceman]

Awesome. Thanks for your replies. So 2 out of 3 lived up to the shareTrader name and sold. The mysterious BP didn’t disclose but guessing he’s made so much over the years he just holds.

Intersting iceman that you sold out totally after holding 10 yrs

I definitely want to buy low to de risk as it’s a slightly risky industry at the whims of Mother Nature so I’m going to sit on the sidelines and wait to see what they do re dividend. I think there might be a little bit more downside risk in short term until will see interest rate peaks.

Thanks again for taking the time to reply…always appreciate hearing what some of you experienced operators think.

I would not read too much into that. I sold down a few holdings on the NZX as the funds were required for an opportunity elsewhere

[bull....]

i have owned this numerous time over the yr's. sold out end last yr my last lot of the top of my head
will invest again one day just not yet

[Ricky-bobby]

I’m in the primary sector and it’s hard work at the mo… Costs have greatly increased. Fert/staff/making/exporting, it’s bloody expensive to make something and to get it off this island. Once labour and freight get back into balance it would be worth looking at (at least 2 years away). Agree good business, but is going through a tough patch. FYI don’t hold, but would look at it in the future.

[Jaa]

Disagree about management, they went on an acquisition spree at the top of the cycle, abused their RSE workers, upset the government which they rely on to grant RSE worker permits and tried to install complicated sorting machinery in the middle of what is a short packing season while they were extremely short staffed. The Australian and fresh fruits expansions have never produced consistent profit to justify the capital invested.

Part of past years profits came from developing orchards and selling them. A good strategy when times are good but not one that will work as well through the cycle.

The rollup acquisition strategy (Aongatete, Opotiki, Gisborne, Northland etc) seemed like a good idea to me but I can't shake the idea that the sellers knew the industry and their assets better than Seeka and in hindsight obviously got the better end of the deal. Many of this year's problems came from Opotiki and Gisborne, more marginal areas for Kiwifruit as is Northland.

NTA is $6.07 and Seeka are becoming a monopoly in packing which should allow them to create some economies of scale via automation and scale. It is a tough seasonal industry though which relies on plentiful short-term cheap labour to be profitable. Labour NZ has not supplied for a decade or more now. The industry relies on backpackers, RSE workers and various immigration scams.

Freight costs are at least coming down according to Maersk (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/02/shipping-firm-maersk-a-barometer-for-trade-warns-of-dark-clouds-on-the-horizon.html).

The investment also hinges on the industry as a whole. International competition is increasing with China stealing the root stock and growing it with little sanction from NZ. Plenty of other supplies in the international market at half the price anyway so Zespri relies on its brand, quality, relationships and innovative new species. All of which relies on the quality of the fruit, the industry thus can't afford another year of poor fruit quality.

Having said that unlike all the positive posters I am still holding! :eek2:

[iceman]

Disagree about management, they went on an acquisition spree at the top of the cycle, abused their RSE workers, upset the government which they rely on to grant RSE worker permits and tried to install complicated sorting machinery in the middle of what is a short packing season while they were extremely short staffed. The Australian and fresh fruits expansions have never produced consistent profit to justify the capital invested.

Part of past years profits came from developing orchards and selling them. A good strategy when times are good but not one that will work as well through the cycle.

The rollup acquisition strategy (Aongatete, Opotiki, Gisborne, Northland etc) seemed like a good idea to me but I can't shake the idea that the sellers knew the industry and their assets better than Seeka and in hindsight obviously got the better end of the deal. Many of this year's problems came from Opotiki and Gisborne, more marginal areas for Kiwifruit as is Northland.

NTA is $6.07 and Seeka are becoming a monopoly in packing which should allow them to create some economies of scale via automation and scale. It is a tough seasonal industry though which relies on plentiful short-term cheap labour to be profitable. Labour NZ has not supplied for a decade or more now. The industry relies on backpackers, RSE workers and various immigration scams.

Freight costs are at least coming down according to Maersk (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/02/shipping-firm-maersk-a-barometer-for-trade-warns-of-dark-clouds-on-the-horizon.html).

The investment also hinges on the industry as a whole. International competition is increasing with China stealing the root stock and growing it with little sanction from NZ. Plenty of other supplies in the international market at half the price anyway so Zespri relies on its brand, quality, relationships and innovative new species. All of which relies on the quality of the fruit, the industry thus can't afford another year of poor fruit quality.

Having said that unlike all the positive posters I am still holding! :eek2:

I suggest you find out more detail about the highlighted bit in your post before making comments like that. From what I can gather, they were faced with situations such as not having any idea how many or when they would get RSE workers in, including being told on a Friday afternoon they'd get over 40 that weekend. No prior notice or indication. I suggest not many companies can plan for such disorganised Government.

[peat]

I've held since late 2018 but sold many late 2021
I still hold some for the LT

[GTM 3442]

I started in about 2016(?) as a bottom-feeding punt around the time of the PSA debacle. I've topped up and taken some profits since then, but still a happy long-term holder.

[Jaa]

I suggest you find out more detail about the highlighted bit in your post before making comments like that. From what I can gather, they were faced with situations such as not having any idea how many or when they would get RSE workers in, including being told on a Friday afternoon they'd get over 40 that weekend. No prior notice or indication. I suggest not many companies can plan for such disorganised Government.

Two complaints against Seeka were upheld by the Labour inspectorate for breaching immigration NZ's rules for RSE workers. It is hard to prove such things with transient workers who naturally fear their bosses and authorities. The published details alone are unacceptable to me as a shareholder. Inadequate and broken cooking and washing facilities, overcrowding, excessive charges, none of which can be blamed on the government. As was CEO Franks' victim blaming response. This was during a period of relative surplus accommodation in the Western Bay of Plenty due to closed borders.

Migrant workers living at school camp forced to endure 'unacceptable' conditions: Labour Inspectorate (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/129976215/migrant-workers-living-at-school-camp-forced-to-endure-unacceptable-conditions-labour-inspectorate)

Note, if you read the info released under the OIA the labour inspector was unable to speak directly to any of the workers affected at the Rotorua site as Seeka conveniently timed the inspection for when the workers would be asleep. https://www.scribd.com/document/597151862/Labour-Inspectorate-complaint-responses-about-the-RSE-scheme#from_embed

Handled with care and strict monitoring the RSE program can work well for all sides. Seeka and its shareholders have a large vested interest to make sure that it does. Cover-ups and excuses do Seeka no good in the long run.

[bull....]

see eastpak is seeking to raise 30m

https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2211/S00210/eastpack-announces-30-million-notes-issue-to-meet-growth-in-kiwifruit-demand.htm

anyone think its got anything to do with the frost event ?

[BlackPeter]

see eastpak is seeking to raise 30m

https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2211/S00210/eastpack-announces-30-million-notes-issue-to-meet-growth-in-kiwifruit-demand.htm

anyone think its got anything to do with the frost event ?


The amount raised will help expand packing capacity at EastPack including processing and packing efficiency.

Are you saying they are lying?

[bull....]

Are you saying they are lying?

offer doc says its for general funds , working capital , investment etc

[whatsup]

Buying another pack house, always some available for sale !

[bull....]

oh no another downgrade :scared:

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/402491

[iceman]

oh no another downgrade :scared:

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/402491

Mid range down $ 2.25 million from last downgrade. Turning out to be a very bad year.

[GTM 3442]

"This reduction in earnings reflects a later shipping season, challenging
fruit quality across the industry and expected reduced fruit earnings from
the global market."

Ouch!

Perfect storm!

Repeat after myself

"I'm in it for the long haul"

"I'm in it for the long haul"

"I'm in it for the long haul"

"I'm in it for. . . . "

Ouch!

[percy]

"This reduction in earnings reflects a later shipping season, challenging
fruit quality across the industry and expected reduced fruit earnings from
the global market."

Ouch!

Perfect storm!

Repeat after myself

"I'm in it for the long haul"

"I'm in it for the long haul"

"I'm in it for the long haul"

"I'm in it for. . . . "

Ouch!

Definition of a "long term " holding.
A "short term " holding that did not work out...

I am still "half " invested in SEK.Sold mine and kept the wife's.

[bull....]

Mid range down $ 2.25 million from last downgrade. Turning out to be a very bad year.

im picking full yr loss once frost event damage becomes apparent next yr

[Lease]

Well, no need to be panic, if you are a long-term holder. So many instances have shown that quality companies are better collected when they hit hard by temporary storm.

The latest example could be ATM which its SP was down below $6 after it reported 2021 results. If you bought ATM right after its 2021 results out, now you would make over 10%.

One thing I reckon SEK is much better is its NTA is $6.07. Now the SP is trading at only 58% of NTA. SEK's farm land, production facility, etc has real value thus it's extremely cheap at moment. Buying now and long-term investors won't be disappointed.

[bull....]

Well, no need to be panic, if you are a long-term holder. So many instances have shown that quality companies are better collected when they hit hard by temporary storm.

The latest example could be ATM which its SP was down below $6 after it reported 2021 results. If you bought ATM right after its 2021 results out, now you would make over 10%.

One thing I reckon SEK is much better is its NTA is $6.07. Now the SP is trading at only 58% of NTA. SEK's farm land, production facility, etc has real value thus it's extremely cheap at moment. Buying now and long-term investors won't be disappointed.

unless you get another weather event next year
or dare i say the same issue's as this year repeating eg labour issue's , cost inflation , fruit quality , lower pricing oversea's

[Lease]

unless you get another weather event next year
or dare i say the same issue's as this year repeating eg labour issue's , cost inflation , fruit quality , lower pricing oversea's

You can add negative points on and on. Same as you did when ATM got trouble. But Hey, what has happened to ATM now:t_up:

[BlackPeter]

oh no another downgrade :scared:

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/402491

Might not be that bad.


Analysts had them at 17 cts EPS.

This new downgrade would mean a mid point of 21 cts per share (before tax).

Question is - would they need to pay this year a lot of tax? For sure they can deduct their costs ...

[peat]

Definition of a "long term " holding.
A "short term " holding that did not work out...

I am still "half " invested in SEK.Sold mine and kept the wife's.

Haha you sneaky monkey

That saying is so true, I had a few of those myself!

I've always understood horticulture is risky - though my roses are flourishing right now - and did reduce at the right time so happy to HODL with 5% of the equity portfolio which is only 50% of total.

[ralph]

unless you get another weather event next year
or dare i say the same issue's as this year repeating eg labour issue's , cost inflation , fruit quality , lower pricing oversea's

Getting one hell of a ski slope that sp Bull, definitely a long term hold now as Percy says

[GTM 3442]

Definition of a "long term " holding.
A "short term " holding that did not work out...

I am still "half " invested in SEK.Sold mine and kept the wife's.


With an entry price of about a dollar, and well over a decade's worth of profit taking and trading, I'm quite relaxed about the long term.

[bull....]

Might not be that bad.


Analysts had them at 17 cts EPS.

This new downgrade would mean a mid point of 21 cts per share (before tax).

Question is - would they need to pay this year a lot of tax? For sure they can deduct their costs ...

after this 27% downgrade i have 15c eps and pe of 22 at current pricing.
my expectations are this will change again next yr for the worse once fruit volume's and fruit loss are firmed up in regard's to the frost event.
only thing i dont know is will the next downgrade happen this current financial yr or will it be included in the next financial yr's forecast's at result time

[Sideshow Bob]

Zespri's Chief Global Supply Officer is leaving - would have been a bit of a challenging gig over recent years with shipping, Covid, labour, weather, fruit quality etc...

https://www.usx.co.nz/uploads/paperclip/documents/2716/original/2022-11_Zespri_CEO_Update_-_14_November_2022.pdf?1668398172

[iceman]

Two complaints against Seeka were upheld by the Labour inspectorate for breaching immigration NZ's rules for RSE workers. It is hard to prove such things with transient workers who naturally fear their bosses and authorities. The published details alone are unacceptable to me as a shareholder. Inadequate and broken cooking and washing facilities, overcrowding, excessive charges, none of which can be blamed on the government. As was CEO Franks' victim blaming response. This was during a period of relative surplus accommodation in the Western Bay of Plenty due to closed borders.

Migrant workers living at school camp forced to endure 'unacceptable' conditions: Labour Inspectorate (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/129976215/migrant-workers-living-at-school-camp-forced-to-endure-unacceptable-conditions-labour-inspectorate)

Note, if you read the info released under the OIA the labour inspector was unable to speak directly to any of the workers affected at the Rotorua site as Seeka conveniently timed the inspection for when the workers would be asleep. https://www.scribd.com/document/597151862/Labour-Inspectorate-complaint-responses-about-the-RSE-scheme#from_embed

Handled with care and strict monitoring the RSE program can work well for all sides. Seeka and its shareholders have a large vested interest to make sure that it does. Cover-ups and excuses do Seeka no good in the long run.

Since reading this post, I have done a bit of investigating, including talking directly to workers "on the ground", both kiwis and a couple of RSE workers. A couple is not a big number but some of the guys I contacted were non English speakers. Makes it a bit hard to check what's really going on but what I found out, is that generally you have a group of workers working together, with one "The Boss" being an English speaker on behalf of the Group..

My view after my little investigation is that I don't believe there is any ill intent by Seeka or any of the other bigger operators in this industry, to ill treat workers. The RSE workers come here for one reason and one reason only, to make money and work hard for it. That is exactly what they do. They don't mind double bunking when doing shift work and the more shifts they get, the happier they are. Meanhwile we have a large number of kiwis on "jobseeker" benefit in the BOP, rather than getting of their arse and doing some work.

Well I've done shift work my whole working life and there's nothing unusual about some double bunking at times and there most certainly is nothing unusual about people being asleep at a time some bureaucrats, that work a seriously limited number of hours per week, come to visit.
Maybe NZ needs to think about how restrictive we have become to many of our industries to hire and pay people a FAIR amount for what they produce and provide them with FAIR conditions of employment, including housing, because of all our completely irrelevant and stifling rules.

I come from the fishing industry where we are used to having to work hard and often in what many would call "sub-standard" conditions. But we generally don't complain and get on with it. It isn't our biggest concern.
You Jaa come from the airline industry, if I'm not mistaken (I apologise if I am wrong), where different rules and never ending Government subsidies of Billons of dollars apply around the World. Some of it to make sure you can all stay in 5* hotels.

[na2m1]

I do agree with Iceman statement being a fruit picker in my younger days, the conditions I lived in is what we called as "substandard living" to nowadays narrative. To be honest I dont mind it a all. In fact I love it. Met a lot of good friends along the way from all over the world. Spent our night and days off talking about our experience around the world and it was probably one of the best time of my life. Workers are happy and all of us get along pretty well. Then again I can not say about other places but hope it helps to bring a new perspective.

[Jaa]

Since reading this post, I have done a bit of investigating, including talking directly to workers "on the ground", both kiwis and a couple of RSE workers. A couple is not a big number but some of the guys I contacted were non English speakers. Makes it a bit hard to check what's really going on but what I found out, is that generally you have a group of workers working together, with one "The Boss" being an English speaker on behalf of the Group..

My view after my little investigation is that I don't believe there is any ill intent by Seeka or any of the other bigger operators in this industry, to ill treat workers. The RSE workers come here for one reason and one reason only, to make money and work hard for it. That is exactly what they do. They don't mind double bunking when doing shift work and the more shifts they get, the happier they are. Meanhwile we have a large number of kiwis on "jobseeker" benefit in the BOP, rather than getting of their arse and doing some work.

Well I've done shift work my whole working life and there's nothing unusual about some double bunking at times and there most certainly is nothing unusual about people being asleep at a time some bureaucrats, that work a seriously limited number of hours per week, come to visit.
Maybe NZ needs to think about how restrictive we have become to many of our industries to hire and pay people a FAIR amount for what they produce and provide them with FAIR conditions of employment, including housing, because of all our completely irrelevant and stifling rules.

I come from the fishing industry where we are used to having to work hard and often in what many would call "sub-standard" conditions. But we generally don't complain and get on with it. It isn't our biggest concern.
You Jaa come from the airline industry, if I'm not mistaken (I apologise if I am wrong), where different rules and never ending Government subsidies of Billons of dollars apply around the World. Some of it to make sure you can all stay in 5* hotels.

The saying "people who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones" comes to mind.

I have been fortunate to work in a variety of industries including aviation, fishing ironically and some time ago a couple of summers in Kiwifruit orchards as has more recently some of my friends and family.

We were a diverse mix of students and the kind of people you are negatively stereotyping in your post. Paid just above minimum wage, given no certainty of work, not paid when it rained or when there was no work to do and constantly threatened if we didn't work harder they would get X group of foreigners/immigrants in to replace us. Our repost was an accurate, go ahead they will only work the ends of the rows (a common shortcut). It was bearable as a student but a terrible deal for the non-students who were the fastest workers by far.

Hence why the industry now relies on foreign labour, both backpackers and RSE.

More recent stories from my personal contacts are about labour gangs run by serial bankrupts not paying any PAYE for their workers, abuse of student visas and blatant lying to immigration NZ for work visas.

Thus my long term concern for where the industry is heading. I don't believe NZ should or will accept foreign labourers of the type some here are suggesting as it can quickly deteriorate to modern-day slavery (see the World Cup). I also happen to have plenty of knowledge of how foreign workers in other countries are treated. It isn't pretty. Large deposits/loans/bribes paid to labour brokers in their home countries who often lie, passports taken, terrible living conditions, excessive deductions for house/food/transport, long hours, lack of safety equipment etc.

Workers only wanting to "work hard" as you say iceman often have no other choice. By talking only to "The Boss" you are likely being deliberately misled. A better more objective measure would be to monitor what % of Seeka's RSE workers return for the next season. I would also employ native speakers to talk directly with the workers and fix appliances when they break.

NZ's Kiwifruit sells in overseas market for a hefty premium, derived both from the quality of the fruit and Zespri's marketing which are in turn reliant on the environmental and labour practices used to produce it. As the largest corporate in the industry Seeka and us shareholders have both a moral responsibility and financial incentive to ensure that the RSE standards are upheld and exceeded.

Oh and as for subsidies what other industry is brazen enough to steal a public park for their HQ like Zespri did? Heaven forbid a few orchardists think they are too flash in having an HQ in the middle of town or an office park like every other large business. Which is my point, the Kiwifruit industry needs to grow up, mature and treat all stakeholders well for the long term health of the industry.

[bull....]

seeka havnt updated if there paying a div , i think they say in a previous announcement they will consider it late this yr.
I be surprised see one being paid myself due to potential further downgrade early next yr

[Grimy]

I don't see one being paid. Maybe one of the (several) factors of the continued share price slide. On my watchlist (I do hold some), but not ready to top up (average down) while it is still heading south.

[RTM]

https://www.rnz.co.nz/audio/player?audio_id=2018870842

https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/morningreport/audio/2018870831/rse-report-finds-major-gaps-in-system

Some work to do on the RSE Scheme by the sounds of it. Increased costs ahead ? More automation ?

[Filthy]

yes I would say a divi is very unlikely bull. anyone willing to take a punt on where the bottom might be? reckon it'll have a 2 handle shortly.... not back in yet - reckon itll be another knife catch though

[bull....]

yes I would say a divi is very unlikely bull. anyone willing to take a punt on where the bottom might be? reckon it'll have a 2 handle shortly.... not back in yet - reckon itll be another knife catch though

i agree 2s coming. im not looking to buy any yet but at some stage i will. still lot of uncertainty in the kiwifruit space at moment with staffing and rse scheme's , weather issue's , crop est due to frost event's etc etc etc

[Grimy]

Around 850,000 at $2.80 during the day..........

[bull....]

Around 850,000 at $2.80 during the day..........

2% of company approx .... wow someone wanted out. quite a discount

[ralph]

2% of company approx .... wow someone wanted out. quite a discount

They must have had a damn good reason :t_down:

[percy]

I guess some one bought them and thought they were getting a bargain.?
Time will tell.

[Baa_Baa]

I guess some one bought them and thought they were getting a bargain.?
Time will tell.

For some, the sky is falling, whereas for others, a great company is going cheap. There's a lot of it around lately. Some will say OMG 2 millions shares dumped into the close, but someone else bought those 2 million shares. The market is not a good guide to company valuations.

Seems not so long ago everything was overpriced and it was a gamble buying anything, but now, it's the opposite and there's long term value everywhere.

Perspective is everything with investing, not so much for trading.

[bull....]

lol
anyway it appears the horticulture sector stocks are not good places to park money this yr and this may continue into next yr due to changing weather etc so any comparisons of past performance of companies are obviously irrelevant now due to climate change

[BlackPeter]

lol
anyway it appears the horticulture sector stocks are not good places to park money this yr and this may continue into next yr due to changing weather etc so any comparisons of past performance of companies are obviously irrelevant now due to climate change

I think you mix up past and present.

Clearly - the horticulture stocks have not been a good place to park money this yr. Does not mean, they are not now. Clearly - they won't break, people will need food and much better to buy them while they are cheap instead of trashing them on the way down and buying them only when they are back dear.

[bull....]

I think you mix up past and present.

Clearly - the horticulture stocks have not been a good place to park money this yr. Does not mean, they are not now. Clearly - they won't break, people will need food and much better to buy them while they are cheap instead of trashing them on the way down and buying them only when they are back dear.

of course you are guessing they are cheap because you cannot predict the weather for the next year
anyway i'll stick to my prediction of another downgrade feb/march ? due to frost event

[BlackPeter]

of course you are guessing they are cheap because you cannot predict the weather for the next year
anyway i'll stick to my prediction of another downgrade feb/march ? due to frost event

This is the thing about the future ... nobody can predict it, neither me nor you :p ; Just one of these unavoidable investment risks ...

[Southern Lad]

2% of company approx .... wow someone wanted out. quite a discount

I see Masfen Securities Ltd was the purchaser, increasing their Seeka stake from 3% to 5%.

[winner69]

I see Masfen Securities Ltd was the purchaser, increasing their Seeka stake from 3% to 5%.

Probably goingbto get Metro Glass to build them big glass houses …that’s if Seeka use glass houses

[bull....]

I see Masfen Securities Ltd was the purchaser, increasing their Seeka stake from 3% to 5%.

actually i mixed up my announcements lol

[Southern Lad]

Zespri have released an update to their five year forecast today - see Zespri-Five-year-Outlook-2023.pdf (https://www.zespri.com/content/dam/zespri/nz/publications/Zespri-Five-year-Outlook-2023.pdf)

While they acknowledge the current industry challenges, Zespri are confident in the market outlook and that the current challenges can be addressed. There is a good summary on page 3.

[BlackPeter]

Zespri have released an update to their five year forecast today - see Zespri-Five-year-Outlook-2023.pdf (https://www.zespri.com/content/dam/zespri/nz/publications/Zespri-Five-year-Outlook-2023.pdf)

While they acknowledge the current industry challenges, Zespri are confident in the market outlook and that the current challenges can be addressed. There is a good summary on page 3.

Cheers, refreshing to get from time to time during this black sluged bear drop as well some balanced and positive news.

And yes, I think as well the long term outlook is good. People like healthy and fresh food. People will not go away. NZ (and Zespri) are able to deliver this healthy and fresh food.

Win - Win

Great investment opportunities while the prices are low.

[bull....]

to balance the discussion around zespri presentation ( which read's more of all the risks ) some of the negatives esp in the next yr are

The adverse weatherevents and seasonal conditions in 2022 are also expected tohave an impact on yield in 2023 ... which is why im thinking more downgrade to come

The review of the use of hydrogen cyanamide (Hi-Cane) inNew Zealand by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)has significant risk to the industry’s ability to grow fruit ofconsistent quality and yields, The EPA have advised theywill finalise their decision in 2023 following a public hearing. could have a big impact on stock prices ?

Thedecision to release 350 hectares of Zespri SunGold Kiwifruit isat the bottom end of the previously advised range of licencerelease which was 350-700 hectares. So they dont have demand yet for a bigger increase ?

they also list all the other challenges over 2 pages on pg 8 , 9

So on a positive note if they do overcome all the many challenges they could very well be right on the positive 10yr forecast..... time will tell

[Sideshow Bob]

While not Seeka, Zespri's update yesterday:

https://www.usx.co.nz/uploads/paperclip/documents/2757/original/2023-01_Zespri_Industry_Update_from_Dan_Mathieson_%E2%8 0%93_Important_information_about_the_OGR_Forecast. pdf?1674180264

[bull....]

here's furthur news in regard to zespri announcement yesterday .... doesnt look good for growers

Kiwifruit payment cut 'a shock' for growers as fruit quality issues bite

Fruit loss was estimated at almost 20% for the last quarter of the year, compared to an earlier 7% forecast, the Whakatāne Beacon reported.
And there are questions around grower payments in future months, with Zespri chief executive Dan Mathieson saying the impact will be assessed “once we have completed the February forecast”.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/bay-of-plenty/131057243/kiwifruit-payment-cut-a-shock-for-growers-as-fruit-quality-issues-bite

[Grimy]

I think the share price run up of the past week or so is a little premature. We could be testing sub-$3 again with this news.

[BlackPeter]

here's furthur news in regard to zespri announcement yesterday .... doesnt look good for growers

Kiwifruit payment cut 'a shock' for growers as fruit quality issues bite

Fruit loss was estimated at almost 20% for the last quarter of the year, compared to an earlier 7% forecast, the Whakatāne Beacon reported.
And there are questions around grower payments in future months, with Zespri chief executive Dan Mathieson saying the impact will be assessed “once we have completed the February forecast”.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/bay-of-plenty/131057243/kiwifruit-payment-cut-a-shock-for-growers-as-fruit-quality-issues-bite


Absolutely - the four horse men of the apocalypse seem to be on the loose ... and they are trampling all over our Kiwifruit industry.

Remind me what the biblical solution is against the horsemen - "ora et labora" (pray and work)?

Maybe that's what our Kiwifruit industry will do as well?

Pray / hope for the next year to be better - and work hard to make the best out of the hand they will get dealt.

Obviously - nobody can predict or control next seasons weather ... but many of the parameters which created the recent quality issues they can manage ... and some of the parameters they can't are already taken care off (like labour shortages).

So - I expect quality issues to improve this year (because they better understand them and won't have the same workers shortages) ... and for next year the odds should be good for a better harvest as well. Apparently "El niño" is knocking on the door ... they better check their irrigation systems, but untimely frost should be less of an issue.

When is the best time to buy? When everybody is so fearful of the four horsemen that they forget that the next stage after apocalypse is paradise.

Might be time to buy some stakes of paradise while they are still cheap.

[percy]

Seeka's share price is up over 20% from its recent lows.

[BlackPeter]

Seeka's share price is up over 20% from its recent lows.

Good point. Looks like the bottom is already in.

Just sometimes hard to see with all the black sludge over the thread ;) ;

Cheers for pointing out the green shoots ...

[nztx]

Good point. Looks like the bottom is already in.

Just sometimes hard to see with all the black sludge over the thread ;) ;

Cheers for pointing out the green shoots ...


What factors have slipped out of the equation now, that contributed
to the most recent 12 month SP slide ?

Remember the Eagle didn't lay an interim gold egg in September 22 ;)

[BlackPeter]

What factors have slipped out of the equation now, that contributed
to the most recent 12 month SP slide ?

Remember the Eagle didn't lay an interim gold egg in September 22 ;)

OK - nobody can predict future share prices, and this includes me as well as you.

What we can see however is that the SP is now confirmed (more than 3 days) above the MA 100. Some investors use this as indicator. Market seems to think they are fine, but sure - as any other indicator this is not infallible.

As far as the negative factors are concerned ... at some stage are they just priced in, or do you expect that the price will go in a straight line through the $0 mark?

They do make money - over the last 10 years something like 33 cents p.a. per share average. Sure - this year it will be less (but I suppose still positive) and no reason to assume that in the years to come they won't go back to mean.

So - I guess, the question is - how low do you expect them to go - and why?

[nztx]

OK - nobody can predict future share prices, and this includes me as well as you.

What we can see however is that the SP is now confirmed (more than 3 days) above the MA 100. Some investors use this as indicator. Market seems to think they are fine, but sure - as any other indicator this is not infallible.

As far as the negative factors are concerned ... at some stage are they just priced in, or do you expect that the price will go in a straight line through the $0 mark?

They do make money - over the last 10 years something like 33 cents p.a. per share average. Sure - this year it will be less (but I suppose still positive) and no reason to assume that in the years to come they won't go back to mean.

So - I guess, the question is - how low do you expect them to go - and why?


get the right graph, as encouraging as it looks, it may look like a minor bounce off the bottom,
or maybe not. What do current economic conditions, the sector & competition say ?
Also global economic conditions ? How about weather, labour force, political times etc ?

The primary sector including Kiwi's is very dependent on Mother Nature ..
that's before other factors come into play