View Full Version : HGH - Heartland Group Holdings
Baa_Baa
22-05-2024, 08:02 PM
Mike for God's sake don't as questions like that.
The moon is waxing crescent and Fibonacci has spoken.
Just like bulkowski knows that OCA earnings are on Friday and built it into his famed Double bottom.
Fibonacci sequence as you already know is a mathematical formulae that freaky occurs and reoccurs in numerous natural sciences. For charting market prices, it is just the points in between two share prices that might indicate potential market (population) sentiment. Funnily enough the strong Fib numbers do often indicate support or resistance to SP movements, the 0.618 in particular.
It's not necessary to deride it as it's just one of the very many share price performance indicators, trying to make some sense of market participants sentiment in a natural system of chaos (the market itself).
Bulkowski has no idea or interest in future earnings, or any fundamental analysis. His analysis is purely on price movements in a market and the patterns those form, and the probabilities of share price movement after the pattern has formed. It's just another lens into the market, with the sole purpose of 'timing' a buy and/or sell, with the ensuing greater or lesser probability that the price will move one way or the other.
All good traders make two trades at the same time, the buy with the limit sell, or the short sell with the limit buy. The spread between them changes based on the probability of the trade, low probability tight spread, high probability loose spread.
If someone on here posted that they've nailed a system for reading tea leaves or chicken entrails for improving their insights into timing their market buys and sells, albeit tempered by probabilities (statistics), before I suggest that they are deluded and mock the system, I would read everything I could find, thousands of pages over many years in excruciating detail (like you do FA), and then apply it myself to real world data, back test it across numerous use-cases, and make up my own mind whether it was Bulkowski, or Bull****.
The Fibonacci sequence of numbers 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, …, each of which, after the second, is the sum of the two previous numbers; that is, the nth Fibonacci number Fn = Fn − 1 + Fn− 2
https://thepatternsite.com/FibonacciTargets.html
:)
SailorRob
22-05-2024, 08:15 PM
If someone on here posted that they've nailed a system for reading tea leaves or chicken entrails for improving their insights into timing their market buys and sells, albeit tempered by probabilities (statistics), before I suggest that they are deluded and mock the system, I would read everything I could find, thousands of pages over many years in excruciating detail :)
I would certainly do this if I had the time, but around 2 Billion people told me they have a system where they are going to a place called Heaven and essentially living in paradise for eternity as long as you follow a few simple rules, and so I decided to investigate as you suggest is prudent and I'm not even through the first Testament yet. Then I have the Quran.
Baa_Baa
22-05-2024, 08:31 PM
I would certainly do this if I had the time, but around 2 Billion people told me they have a system where they are going to a place called Heaven and essentially living in paradise for eternity as long as you follow a few simple rules, and so I decided to investigate as you suggest is prudent and I'm not even through the first Testament yet. Then I have the Quran.
Ha ha, good one, if they help you time your buys and sells in the market then it will be worth it, but don't forget the Tanakh, the New Testament, the Analects of Confucius and the Rig Veda. When you're done with that if you're not old and decrepit, have a read of Bullkowski as well, download a free charting tool like Livecharts.com or Tradingview.com and have a play with that as well.
;)
ValueNZ
22-05-2024, 08:33 PM
Baa_Baa what's this guys track record (CAGR)? Can't seem to find anything online.
SailorRob
22-05-2024, 08:34 PM
Ha ha, good one, if they help you time your buys and sells in the market then it will be worth it, but don't forget the Tanakh, the New Testament, the Analects of Confucius and the Rig Veda. When you're done with that if you're not old and decrepit, have a read of Bullkowski as well, download a free charting tool like Livecharts.com or Tradingview.com and have a play with that as well.
;)
Nothing like free tools that can make you an unlimited amount of cash.
I've been a paid up member of Tradingview for many years, very good platform. Often you post charts and I think that the software looks dark ages compared to Tradingview, thought you didn't know about it.
Baa_Baa
22-05-2024, 08:55 PM
Nothing like free tools that can make you an unlimited amount of cash.
I've been a paid up member of Tradingview for many years, very good platform. Often you post charts and I think that the software looks dark ages compared to Tradingview, thought you didn't know about it.
Investing.com IS the Tradingview charting platform, I only post simple charts when I do, not the ones that I have that are massively complicated with multiple analysis on them. That would just confuse most people.
In any event, my belief is that investing is about two things .. what ... and when. I enjoy your analysis on the 'what', it is more insightful and sophisticated than I have ever achieved, albeit my FA skills are enough to find what i think is a good investment and hopefully avoid too many duds.
I use my TA tools to decide the 'when'. I see no point in ignoring the market sentiment that prices (not values) our investments, it annoys me when I have made impetuous decisions to buy something only to see it available cheaper to buy next week or month, or leave too much money on the table selling too late.
Anyway, enjoy your posts about the what to buy, just trying to point out that there are tools that can be helpful with understanding the probabilities of when to buy, or sell.
Baa_Baa
22-05-2024, 09:03 PM
Baa_Baa what's this guys track record (CAGR)? Can't seem to find anything online.
As far as I know, he's not a fund manager or anything like that and I've never seen him present himself in that light, so seems reasonable he wouldn't post his personal CAGR. Look through that ValueNZ, the guy is simply publishing his analysis and findings of the probabilities of market price movements based on analysis of many many thousands of scenarios. It's a probability analysis based on price trading, not value, and not a measurable fund.
Balance
23-05-2024, 11:05 AM
Had a chat with one of my banking contacts yesterday regarding interest rates outlook and as an aside, his view on HGH.
They (the bank which btw is an international bank, not one of the locals) believe that the RBNZ has well and truly misread the weak state of the NZ economy and is well behind the curve. They are observing many very weak points already apparent in the economy (financial stress, retail spending, recession despite record net migration, weak property prices, declining tax take, increased unemployment despite record migration to Australia and big increases in insolvencies and receiverships) and are concerned that the RB will overdo using high interest rates to crunch inflation.
Especially when inflation is already heading lower (annualized March quarter was 2.4%) and will continue to go lower due to the above weak points. Domestic inflation being targeted by the RB is unlikely to come down in a big hurry given it's ever increasing local council rates, government charges and household servicing costs like insurance driving costs increases.
Net net, they believe the RB is going to have to cut rates sooner than later and cut sharply. He likened the RB to a drunken driver in charge of the monetary policy car driving along a windy road!
AS for HGH, his view (not the bank) is that buying Challenger Bank makes a lot of sense for one strong and compelling reason - access to cheaper funds courtesy of the Australian FCS deposit guarantee scheme. Australians do place their funds up to $250,000 with different banks to take advantage of the guarantee, say $250k with 4 banks than $1m with 1 bank. He thinks that's something which has been missed by many in the market.
SailorRob
23-05-2024, 11:15 AM
Had a chat with one of my banking contacts yesterday regarding interest rates outlook and as an aside, his view on HGH.
They (the bank which btw is an international bank, not one of the locals) believe that the RBNZ has well and truly misread the weak state of the NZ economy and is well behind the curve. They are observing many very weak points already apparent in the economy (financial stress, retail spending, recession despite record net migration, weak property prices, declining tax take, increased unemployment despite record migration to Australia and big increases in insolvencies and receiverships) and are concerned that the RB will overdo using high interest rates to crunch inflation.
Especially when inflation is already heading lower (annualized March quarter was 2.4%) and will continue to go lower due to the above weak points. Domestic inflation being targeted by the RB is unlikely to come down in a big hurry given it's ever increasing local council rates, government charges and household servicing costs like insurance driving costs increases.
Net net, they believe the RB is going to have to cut rates sooner than later and cut sharply. He likened the RB to a drunken driver in charge of the monetary policy car driving along a windy road!
AS for HGH, his view (not the bank) is that buying Challenger Bank makes a lot of sense for one strong and compelling reason - access to cheaper funds courtesy of the Australian FCS deposit guarantee scheme. Australians do place their funds up to $250,000 with different banks to take advantage of the guarantee, say $250k with 4 banks than $1m with 1 bank. He thinks that's something which has been missed by many in the market.
What is your contacts track record on prior interest outlooks?
Why does he/she work for a wage?
Why have the RBNZ missed the points you raise when all are public knowledge?
What is your contacts track record on prior interest outlooks?
Why does he/she work for a wage?
Why have the RBNZ missed the points you raise when all are public knowledge?
I feel many people in the banking industry choose to work for status and networking.
bull....
23-05-2024, 11:30 AM
I would certainly do this if I had the time, but around 2 Billion people told me they have a system where they are going to a place called Heaven and essentially living in paradise for eternity as long as you follow a few simple rules, and so I decided to investigate as you suggest is prudent and I'm not even through the first Testament yet. Then I have the Quran.
yes 2 billion people believe in fib levels so with that believe it becomes self reinforcing in our march towards first level.
bull....
23-05-2024, 11:34 AM
Mike Hosking then interviewed Orr, who criticised the lack of competition between New Zealand banks.
“There is a total lack of competition between the big four [banks].
”They have pricing power... we stand completely beside what we do, and that big four grip must be broken, and it will be broken by innovative products.”
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/listen-live-finance-minister-nicola-willis-on-latest-ocr-decision/7GUJDGJUUNFU5K3Y3JYWZ3P3H4/
hgh got an innovative product coming ?
Why have the RBNZ missed the points you raise when all are public knowledge?
That, surely, is a question for the incompetent twit we have running the RBNZ on a fat salary for an extended term (thanks Robbo). I knew we were in trouble when Orr got in the seat and started spouting stuff about Tanemahuta.
Balance
23-05-2024, 11:53 AM
That, surely, is a question for the incompetent twit we have running the RBNZ on a fat salary for an extended term (thanks Robbo). I knew we were in trouble when Orr got in the seat and started spouting stuff about Tanemahuta.
Please don’t insult twits.
Orr is a ‘class A’ buffoon who completely fxxked up monetary settings during 2020 to 2022 (along with that *itch Ardern) and landed NZ in the economic mess which he is dragging out to save his own skin and job.
What a freaking joke Orr is. Imagine his thought process when he is incorporating Maori myths and legends into monetary policies!
Seen anyone or anybody outside of Robbo or the Labour Party endorsing him as having done a good job?
Traderx
23-05-2024, 11:59 AM
Was in HGH after I bought during the selldown by George Kerr/PGC all those years ago at between 52c to 82c. George of course sold out to the ChCh 'mafia' for 56c. Was very tasty taking a 6 digit gain years later when HGH traded above $2.00.
I have been closely following HGH again since I sold out at $1.78 (took a marginal 3c hit on the way out on my second foray back into the stock) and have just started buying back.
Have a look at the chart below of the banking stocks (WBC, ANZ, NAB, CBA and HGH) and one can observe that they move in unison overall, reflecting the dynamics at play (economic, interest rates and profitability) in the Australasian banking industry.
HGH was following the pattern until late 2023/early 2024 when it became clear to the market that the Challenger Bank acquisition was going ahead and HGH was going to have to do another CR ($200m was raised in 2022) to fund the acquisition. One can see that while the other banks' share prices started recovering, HGH's sp continued to drop.
Hardly surprising as two $200m CRs ($400m) within 18 months are beyond the appetite of shareholders to absorb.
So we are now in the post CR and post Challenger Bank acquisition trading period. There are the flippers who took up the rights and underwrote the CR at $1.00 who are selling out for a quick trade (good on them) or cutting their loss.
I do not expect the selling to continue for much longer (another week perhaps) as it makes little sense to sell out at under $1.00 although the underwriters' break-even price is more like 97c (3% underwriting fee).
I am calling 96c the bottom and expect HGH's sp to track back towards what the other banks are trading at in the next 12 months. I would be disappointed (and wrong) if the sp does not hit $1.25 by end of 2024.
Now fire away your arrows and throw your rocks. Just remember though that I sold at over $2.00 and then, bailed out at $1.78 in my second foray and am buying back at $1.00 +/-.
https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/chart/HGH.NZ#eyJpbnRlcnZhbCI6IndlZWsiLCJwZXJpb2RpY2l0eSI 6MSwidGltZVVuaXQiOm51bGwsImNhbmRsZVdpZHRoIjo2LjY5N zMxODAwNzY2MjgzNSwiZmxpcHBlZCI6ZmFsc2UsInZvbHVtZVV uZGVybGF5IjpmYWxzZSwiYWRqIjp0cnVlLCJjcm9zc2hhaXIiO nRydWUsImNoYXJ0VHlwZSI6ImxpbmUiLCJleHRlbmRlZCI6ZmF sc2UsIm1hcmtldFNlc3Npb25zIjp7fSwiYWdncmVnYXRpb25Ue XBlIjoib2hsYyIsImNoYXJ0U2NhbGUiOiJwZXJjZW50IiwicGF uZWxzIjp7ImNoYXJ0Ijp7InBlcmNlbnQiOjEsImRpc3BsYXkiO iJIR0guTloiLCJjaGFydE5hbWUiOiJjaGFydCIsImluZGV4Ijo wLCJ5QXhpcyI6eyJuYW1lIjoiY2hhcnQiLCJwb3NpdGlvbiI6b nVsbH0sInlheGlzTEhTIjpbXSwieWF4aXNSSFMiOlsiY2hhcnQ iXX19LCJsaW5lV2lkdGgiOjIsInN0cmlwZWRCYWNrZ3JvdW5kI jp0cnVlLCJldmVudHMiOnRydWUsImNvbG9yIjoiIzAwODFmMiI sInN0cmlwZWRCYWNrZ3JvdWQiOnRydWUsInN5bWJvbHMiOlt7I nN5bWJvbCI6IkhHSC5OWiIsInN5bWJvbE9iamVjdCI6eyJzeW1 ib2wiOiJIR0guTloiLCJxdW90ZVR5cGUiOiJFUVVJVFkiLCJle GNoYW5nZVRpbWVab25lIjoiUGFjaWZpYy9BdWNrbGFuZCJ9LCJ wZXJpb2RpY2l0eSI6MSwiaW50ZXJ2YWwiOiJ3ZWVrIiwidGltZ VVuaXQiOm51bGwsInNldFNwYW4iOnsibXVsdGlwbGllciI6NSw iYmFzZSI6InllYXIiLCJwZXJpb2RpY2l0eSI6eyJwZXJpb2QiO jEsImludGVydmFsIjoid2VlayJ9fX0seyJzeW1ib2wiOiJXQkM uQVgiLCJzeW1ib2xPYmplY3QiOnsic3ltYm9sIjoiV0JDLkFYI n0sInBlcmlvZGljaXR5IjoxLCJpbnRlcnZhbCI6IndlZWsiLCJ 0aW1lVW5pdCI6bnVsbCwic2V0U3BhbiI6eyJtdWx0aXBsaWVyI jo1LCJiYXNlIjoieWVhciIsInBlcmlvZGljaXR5Ijp7InBlcml vZCI6MSwiaW50ZXJ2YWwiOiJ3ZWVrIn19LCJpZCI6IldCQy5BW CIsInBhcmFtZXRlcnMiOnsiY29sb3IiOiIjNzJkM2ZmIiwid2l kdGgiOjIsImlzQ29tcGFyaXNvbiI6dHJ1ZSwic2hhcmVZQXhpc yI6dHJ1ZSwiY2hhcnROYW1lIjoiY2hhcnQiLCJzeW1ib2xPYmp lY3QiOnsic3ltYm9sIjoiV0JDLkFYIn0sInBhbmVsIjoiY2hhc nQiLCJmaWxsR2FwcyI6ZmFsc2UsImFjdGlvbiI6ImFkZC1zZXJ pZXMiLCJzeW1ib2wiOiJXQkMuQVgiLCJnYXBEaXNwbGF5U3R5b GUiOiJ0cmFuc3BhcmVudCIsIm5hbWUiOiJXQkMuQVgiLCJvdmV yQ2hhcnQiOnRydWUsInVzZUNoYXJ0TGVnZW5kIjp0cnVlLCJoZ WlnaHRQZXJjZW50YWdlIjowLjcsIm9wYWNpdHkiOjEsImhpZ2h saWdodGFibGUiOnRydWUsInR5cGUiOiJsaW5lIiwic3R5bGUiO iJzdHhfbGluZV9jaGFydCIsImhpZ2hsaWdodCI6ZmFsc2V9fSx 7InN5bWJvbCI6IkFOWi5BWCIsInN5bWJvbE9iamVjdCI6eyJze W1ib2wiOiJBTlouQVgifSwicGVyaW9kaWNpdHkiOjEsImludGV ydmFsIjoid2VlayIsInRpbWVVbml0IjpudWxsLCJzZXRTcGFuI jp7Im11bHRpcGxpZXIiOjUsImJhc2UiOiJ5ZWFyIiwicGVyaW9 kaWNpdHkiOnsicGVyaW9kIjoxLCJpbnRlcnZhbCI6IndlZWsif X0sImlkIjoiQU5aLkFYIiwicGFyYW1ldGVycyI6eyJjb2xvciI 6IiNhZDZlZmYiLCJ3aWR0aCI6MiwiaXNDb21wYXJpc29uIjp0c nVlLCJzaGFyZVlBeGlzIjp0cnVlLCJjaGFydE5hbWUiOiJjaGF ydCIsInN5bWJvbE9iamVjdCI6eyJzeW1ib2wiOiJBTlouQVgif SwicGFuZWwiOiJjaGFydCIsImZpbGxHYXBzIjpmYWxzZSwiYWN 0aW9uIjoiYWRkLXNlcmllcyIsInN5bWJvbCI6IkFOWi5BWCIsI mdhcERpc3BsYXlTdHlsZSI6InRyYW5zcGFyZW50IiwibmFtZSI 6IkFOWi5BWCIsIm92ZXJDaGFydCI6dHJ1ZSwidXNlQ2hhcnRMZ WdlbmQiOnRydWUsImhlaWdodFBlcmNlbnRhZ2UiOjAuNywib3B hY2l0eSI6MSwiaGlnaGxpZ2h0YWJsZSI6dHJ1ZSwidHlwZSI6I mxpbmUiLCJzdHlsZSI6InN0eF9saW5lX2NoYXJ0IiwiaGlnaGx pZ2h0IjpmYWxzZX19LHsic3ltYm9sIjoiTkFCLkFYIiwic3ltY m9sT2JqZWN0Ijp7InN5bWJvbCI6Ik5BQi5BWCJ9LCJwZXJpb2R pY2l0eSI6MSwiaW50ZXJ2YWwiOiJ3ZWVrIiwidGltZVVuaXQiO m51bGwsInNldFNwYW4iOnsibXVsdGlwbGllciI6NSwiYmFzZSI 6InllYXIiLCJwZXJpb2RpY2l0eSI6eyJwZXJpb2QiOjEsImlud GVydmFsIjoid2VlayJ9fSwiaWQiOiJOQUIuQVgiLCJwYXJhbWV 0ZXJzIjp7ImNvbG9yIjoiI2ZmODBjNSIsIndpZHRoIjoyLCJpc 0NvbXBhcmlzb24iOnRydWUsInNoYXJlWUF4aXMiOnRydWUsImN oYXJ0TmFtZSI6ImNoYXJ0Iiwic3ltYm9sT2JqZWN0Ijp7InN5b WJvbCI6Ik5BQi5BWCJ9LCJwYW5lbCI6ImNoYXJ0IiwiZmlsbEd hcHMiOmZhbHNlLCJhY3Rpb24iOiJhZGQtc2VyaWVzIiwic3ltY m9sIjoiTkFCLkFYIiwiZ2FwRGlzcGxheVN0eWxlIjoidHJhbnN wYXJlbnQiLCJuYW1lIjoiTkFCLkFYIiwib3ZlckNoYXJ0Ijp0c nVlLCJ1c2VDaGFydExlZ2VuZCI6dHJ1ZSwiaGVpZ2h0UGVyY2V udGFnZSI6MC43LCJvcGFjaXR5IjoxLCJoaWdobGlnaHRhYmxlI jp0cnVlLCJ0eXBlIjoibGluZSIsInN0eWxlIjoic3R4X2xpbmV fY2hhcnQiLCJoaWdobGlnaHQiOmZhbHNlfX0seyJzeW1ib2wiO iJDQkEuQVgiLCJzeW1ib2xPYmplY3QiOnsic3ltYm9sIjoiQ0J BLkFYIn0sInBlcmlvZGljaXR5IjoxLCJpbnRlcnZhbCI6IndlZ WsiLCJ0aW1lVW5pdCI6bnVsbCwic2V0U3BhbiI6eyJtdWx0aXB saWVyIjo1LCJiYXNlIjoieWVhciIsInBlcmlvZGljaXR5Ijp7I nBlcmlvZCI6MSwiaW50ZXJ2YWwiOiJ3ZWVrIn19LCJpZCI6IkN CQS5BWCIsInBhcmFtZXRlcnMiOnsiY29sb3IiOiIjZmZiZDc0I iwid2lkdGgiOjIsImlzQ29tcGFyaXNvbiI6dHJ1ZSwic2hhcmV ZQXhpcyI6dHJ1ZSwiY2hhcnROYW1lIjoiY2hhcnQiLCJzeW1ib 2xPYmplY3QiOnsic3ltYm9sIjoiQ0JBLkFYIn0sInBhbmVsIjo iY2hhcnQiLCJmaWxsR2FwcyI6ZmFsc2UsImFjdGlvbiI6ImFkZ C1zZXJpZXMiLCJzeW1ib2wiOiJDQkEuQVgiLCJnYXBEaXNwbGF 5U3R5bGUiOiJ0cmFuc3BhcmVudCIsIm5hbWUiOiJDQkEuQVgiL CJvdmVyQ2hhcnQiOnRydWUsInVzZUNoYXJ0TGVnZW5kIjp0cnV lLCJoZWlnaHRQZXJjZW50YWdlIjowLjcsIm9wYWNpdHkiOjEsI mhpZ2hsaWdodGFibGUiOnRydWUsInR5cGUiOiJsaW5lIiwic3R 5bGUiOiJzdHhfbGluZV9jaGFydCIsImhpZ2hsaWdodCI6ZmFsc 2V9fV0sImV2ZW50TWFwIjp7ImNvcnBvcmF0ZSI6eyJkaXZzIjp 0cnVlLCJzcGxpdHMiOnRydWV9LCJzaWdEZXYiOnt9fSwiY3Vzd G9tUmFuZ2UiOm51bGwsInNldFNwYW4iOnsibXVsdGlwbGllciI 6NSwiYmFzZSI6InllYXIiLCJwZXJpb2RpY2l0eSI6eyJwZXJpb 2QiOjEsImludGVydmFsIjoid2VlayJ9fX0-
Kudos to "Balance" who appears to have precisely call the bottom - bravo Sir/Madam! Unfortunately being not such a savvy person am still somewhat underwater but onwards and upwards!
Had a chat with one of my banking contacts yesterday regarding interest rates outlook and as an aside, his view on HGH.
They (the bank which btw is an international bank, not one of the locals) believe that the RBNZ has well .
Thanks for taking the time to share that info Balance. And earlier post re getting back into HGH.
Appreciated.
winner69
23-05-2024, 12:37 PM
What is your contacts track record on prior interest outlooks?
Why does he/she work for a wage?
Why have the RBNZ missed the points you raise when all are public knowledge?
Bit grumpy are we today mate
There’s an old saying this .’when the anecdotes and the data disagree, the anecdotes are usually right’. Balance's contact probably right.
SailorRob
23-05-2024, 01:06 PM
Bit grumpy are we today mate
There’s an old saying this .’when the anecdotes and the data disagree, the anecdotes are usually right’. Balance's contact probably right.
The saying you're thinking of sport is;
Forecasts may tell you a great deal about the forecaster; they tell you nothing about the future.
If balances contact reported to him from the 100 foot yacht in the med then I'll take it seriously.
But then again, would I believe that someone with the ability to predict this stuff would freely share it?
Had a chat with one of my banking contacts yesterday regarding interest rates outlook and as an aside, his view on HGH.
They (the bank which btw is an international bank, not one of the locals) believe that the RBNZ has well and truly misread the weak state of the NZ economy and is well behind the curve. They are observing many very weak points already apparent in the economy (financial stress, retail spending, recession despite record net migration, weak property prices, declining tax take, increased unemployment despite record migration to Australia and big increases in insolvencies and receiverships) and are concerned that the RB will overdo using high interest rates to crunch inflation.
Especially when inflation is already heading lower (annualized March quarter was 2.4%) and will continue to go lower due to the above weak points. Domestic inflation being targeted by the RB is unlikely to come down in a big hurry given it's ever increasing local council rates, government charges and household servicing costs like insurance driving costs increases.
Net net, they believe the RB is going to have to cut rates sooner than later and cut sharply. He likened the RB to a drunken driver in charge of the monetary policy car driving along a windy road!
AS for HGH, his view (not the bank) is that buying Challenger Bank makes a lot of sense for one strong and compelling reason - access to cheaper funds courtesy of the Australian FCS deposit guarantee scheme. Australians do place their funds up to $250,000 with different banks to take advantage of the guarantee, say $250k with 4 banks than $1m with 1 bank. He thinks that's something which has been missed by many in the market.
What your friend is seeing is what I am seeing and hearing from business owners. Hours cut at Harvey Norman for staff, Hotel workers asked to take holiday pay, as there are no guests, takeaways and restaurants begging for customers. This is why I still see albeit (through my rose tinted glasses), that interest rates need to come down by the end of this year.
It will be a sad 2025 for some if the tap is not turned on slowly.
What your friend is seeing is what I am seeing and hearing from business owners. Hours cut at Harvey Norman for staff, Hotel workers asked to take holiday pay, as there are no guests, takeaways and restaurants begging for customers. This is why I still see albeit (through my rose tinted glasses), that interest rates need to come down by the end of this year.
It will be a sad 2025 for some if the tap is not turned on slowly.
I agree. Very tough out there. I believe Balance's mate over Orr lol
LaserEyeKiwi
23-05-2024, 02:05 PM
There are plenty of people that have been saying for months that much of the non-tradable local inflation is being driven by essential services (council rates, insurance, utility bills) unmoved by interest rate increases, or worse are actually going up because of interest rate increases.
But if RBNZ cant impact those factors to reduce inflation, they are going to have to go even harder on the rest of the economy that they can impact.
I myself think there is another option (let inflation ride at 3-4% for a year or two), but unfortunately is not an option for them while they are directed to keep inflation below 3%.
Wouldn’t be surprised if current government is considering changing that target band - because at the current RBNZ track the economic pain might continue into the 2026 election cycle.
SailorRob
23-05-2024, 02:13 PM
One persons debt is another persons asset.
For every punter feeling the pain of rates another is feeling the glee.
The issue is new credit creation.
Balance
23-05-2024, 02:18 PM
Kudos to "Balance" who appears to have precisely call the bottom - bravo Sir/Madam! Unfortunately being not such a savvy person am still somewhat underwater but onwards and upwards!
Thanks for taking the time to share that info Balance. And earlier post re getting back into HGH.
Appreciated.
Flippers (those who took part in the CR and underwrite for a quick gain) are still there so am expecting sp of HGH to do more work around the $1.01 +/- level before the strong base is built to move the sp higher.
One persons debt is another persons asset.
For every punter feeling the pain of rates another is feeling the glee.
The issue is new credit creation.
Most depositors are typically retired and dont spend much. Those with debt are typically the main drivers of consumption. 25-55 age bracket.
Agree, credit creation is the ultimate driver of growth
Most depositors are typically retired and dont spend much. Those with debt are typically the main drivers of consumption. 25-55 age bracket.
Agree, credit creation is the ultimate driver of growth
Without a corresponding growth in productivity it will be inflationary. More credit chasing the same number of goods and services. That's not real growth, but that has been NZ's problem for many years.
SailorRob
23-05-2024, 03:05 PM
Without a corresponding growth in productivity it will be inflationary. More credit chasing the same number of goods and services. That's not real growth, but that has been NZ's problem for many years.
100% correct.
mike2020
23-05-2024, 04:26 PM
There are plenty of people that have been saying for months that much of the non-tradable local inflation is being driven by essential services (council rates, insurance, utility bills) unmoved by interest rate increases, or worse are actually going up because of interest rate increases.
But if RBNZ cant impact those factors to reduce inflation, they are going to have to go even harder on the rest of the economy that they can impact.
I myself think there is another option (let inflation ride at 3-4% for a year or two), but unfortunately is not an option for them while they are directed to keep inflation below 3%.
Wouldn’t be surprised if current government is considering changing that target band - because at the current RBNZ track the economic pain might continue into the 2026 election cycle.
I think your onto something. Listening to the news in the car back to back items on increased rates and the fixed costs like insurance followed by a note about inflation and interest rate news. I mean do the math. They said some insurance average up 40%. What happens next? I can tell you. More people stop buying insurance. Then what?
The rhetoric on tv news is along the lines of this government hates the poor. I hope like hell they have a rabbit to pull out of the hat well before the next election or we are going to be cooked again by the freaking idiots who got us in this mess.
X-men
23-05-2024, 05:06 PM
NZ is stuffed.... thanks to the previous labour government
percy
23-05-2024, 05:22 PM
NZ is stuffed.... thanks to the previous labour government
Think you are right.
Was at Pak'nSave today.Going by the over flowing trollies at the check outs,and the large number filling up their vehicles at Pak'nSave's petrol pumps,it looks as though people think NZ is running out of food and petrol.The huge number of vehicles on the road confirmed most people were out for one last drive.
"The end is nigh".................................................. ........lol.
LaserEyeKiwi
23-05-2024, 06:49 PM
NZ is stuffed.... thanks to the previous labour government
To be fair - almost every country in the developed world is going through the same upheavals caused by the same global issues of the last few years, regardless of what flavor of government they had. Thankfully NZ is in a much better state in terms of government debt.
Despite its polarization, the US is actually faring the best in terms of economic growth, mostly due to its unique mortgage market where 90%+ of homeowners are locked in at record low interest rates on 30 year fixed terms. So consumers there are still spending like crazy. Meanwhile their house building sector is still chugging along fine, as their house builders simply “buy down” the interest rates to new house buyers to attractive low rates (and simply building that cost into the margins on the purchase price).
If heartland really wanted to shake up things they should start offering 20-30 year fixed term mortgages. I dont think they will do that anytime soon while they absorb Challenger, but maybe an initiative for the future.
Balance
23-05-2024, 09:33 PM
If heartland really wanted to shake up things they should start offering 20-30 year fixed term mortgages. I dont think they will do that anytime soon while they absorb Challenger, but maybe an initiative for the future.
No banks in Australasia can offer fixed rate mortgages in NZ for more than 5 years for 2 reasons :
1. Lack of depth and liquidity in the wholesale fixed interest rate market.
2. No hedging mechanism using government risk free bond rates as government bonds are mostly up to 5 years duration.
So don't expect it anytime soon.
https://news.anz.com/new-zealand/posts/2023/07/30-year-fixed-rate-mortgages-explained
Balance
23-05-2024, 09:43 PM
One persons debt is another persons asset.
For every punter feeling the pain of rates another is feeling the glee.
The issue is new credit creation.
Not true at all in the case of NZ as NZ is a huge net borrower of overseas debt - External debt was US$223.6 billion* in Dec 2023.
Net foreign debt (after taking out foreign assets owned by NZ) was $191.9 billion.
What this means is that a 1% increase in interest rates = increase in $1.919 billion leaving NZ to offshore lenders.
*https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/new-zealand/external-debt
SailorRob
23-05-2024, 09:55 PM
Not true at all in the case of NZ as NZ is a huge net borrower of overseas debt - External debt was US$223.6 billion* in Dec 2023.
Net foreign debt (after taking out foreign assets owned by NZ) was $191.9 billion.
What this means is that a 1% increase in interest rates = increase in $1.919 billion leaving NZ to offshore lenders.
*https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/new-zealand/external-debt
Did I say that one KIWIS debt is another KIWIS asset?
No I did not.
And a 1% increase in rates dose NOT mean that the lenders get that 1%...
Balance
23-05-2024, 09:59 PM
Did I say that one KIWIS debt is another KIWIS asset?
No I did not.
And a 1% increase in rates dose NOT mean that the lenders get that 1%...
Of course you did - in the context of 'the issue is new credit creation.'
Sideshow Bob
24-05-2024, 09:38 AM
New directors
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/431674
Heartland Group Holdings Limited (Heartland) (NZX/ASX: HGH) is pleased to announce that it intends to appoint Robert (Rob) Bell and Simon Beckett as independent, non-executive directors(subject to Reserve Bank of New Zealand non-objection), with effect from 27 June 2024.
ronaldson
27-05-2024, 05:04 PM
Market already today with buyers at $1.05. The era of cheap is over and the train has left the station. Just looking now as to where it will settle pending further updates/developments.
This from 22 May. Seems I caught the wrong train. O well, travelling is sometimes better than arriving at a destination.
SailorRob
27-05-2024, 05:07 PM
Don't worry, remember Balance called the bottom perfectly.
Balance
27-05-2024, 09:05 PM
Don't worry, remember Balance called the bottom perfectly.
But of course!
Read post #17523 (23 May) :
Flippers (those who took part in the CR and underwrite for a quick gain) are still there so am expecting sp of HGH to do more work around the $1.01 +/- level before the strong base is built to move the sp higher.
Try harder to keep up SR.
Baa_Baa
27-05-2024, 09:32 PM
Monthly chart, with only a few days left to go, is interesting showing an indecision Doji Star (very tight high/low spread) centred at $1.01. It could go either way and easily interpreted as a bottom but the probably is greater that it is not, more than it is. It's what happens from here that matters. More on this probability here https://thepatternsite.com/DojiStarBull.html
Baa_Baa
27-05-2024, 10:00 PM
Monthly chart, with only a few days left to go, is interesting showing an indecision Doji Star (very tight high/low spread) centred at $1.01. It could go either way and easily interpreted as a bottom but the probably is greater that it is not, more than it is. It's what happens from here that matters. More on this probability here https://thepatternsite.com/DojiStarBull.html
It could also be a Morning Star doji which has a much greater probability of upside movement in price, but as I said, it's what happens from here that matters. https://thepatternsite.com/MorningDojiStar.html
Baa_Baa
27-05-2024, 10:04 PM
It could also be a Morning Star doji which has a much greater probability of upside movement in price, but as I said, it's what happens from here that matters. https://thepatternsite.com/MorningDojiStar.html
Here's the monthly chart https://invst.ly/14-i0c
So BaaBaa what you’re telling us is the price will either go up or down? :)
Baa_Baa
27-05-2024, 10:30 PM
So BaaBaa what you’re telling us is the price will either go up or down? :)
Thanks for your encouragement, depending on how you interpret the monthly price candle, it's either more likely to go down, or less likely to go up. Lol. So what's your interpretation of the candle? Not that it matters, like I said, it's what happens next that counts.
Trading is fun, it's in the now, we have access to all sorts of insights, it's just how and when we interpret them ... and what we do about it. Or not.
Thanks for your encouragement, depending on how you interpret the monthly price candle, it's either more likely to go down, or less likely to go up. Lol. So what's your interpretation of the candle? Not that it matters, like I said, it's what happens next that counts.
Trading is fun, it's in the now, we have access to all sorts of insights, it's just how and when we interpret them ... and what we do about it. Or not.
I only know the very basics of TA. Enough to know this is in a terrible downtrend and the number one rule is to never buy in a downtrend. But I also know HGH is cheap as chips so buying now will be okay in the long run.
bull....
28-05-2024, 11:57 AM
Flippers (those who took part in the CR and underwrite for a quick gain) are still there so am expecting sp of HGH to do more work around the $1.01 +/- level before the strong base is built to move the sp higher.
yep reason i posted i was only in short term , i sold out just above 1.04 . will watch now
ronaldson
29-05-2024, 03:15 PM
Good post (#17479) Balance. The chart certainly seems to indicate that over the past month or two HGH has been oversold.
I looked at the on-market price action today and thought that after this week, maybe even quicker, we may not see sub $1 again unless there is adverse news.
This post from 20 May. Another failed prediction. Is anyone making any money on the NZX currently? Even the sharetrader competition participants are mostly underwater, often significantly so.
Of course your picks may not match your portfolio. But there doesn't seem to be any expectation by Mr Market that Nicola will help out tomorrow either. And inflation is now UP in Australia again which, given tax cuts are said to be offered, may become a trend here too? Then where to for share prices?
This post from 20 May. Another failed prediction. Is anyone making any money on the NZX currently? Even the sharetrader competition participants are mostly underwater, often significantly so.
Of course your picks may not match your portfolio. But there doesn't seem to be any expectation by Mr Market that Nicola will help out tomorrow either. And inflation is now UP in Australia again which, given tax cuts are said to be offered, may become a trend here too? Then where to for share prices?
IMO Aussie & foreign markets might be seeing more joy.
The local sentiment even for what ordinarily might look reasonable makes one think twice
The growing sea of red locally, a skeleton NZX board littered with so many dead, dying & potentially injured outfits (cushioned by all the fancy NZX funds to help divert attention away) all reeling in the hard economic conditions makes other markets look a breath of fresh air :)
How many dividend stocks have not declared or reduced ? How many more are likely to stall Div's ?
How many are reliant on dividend income ?
How much spending will go to or out of NZX stocks in a struggling post & current COL hit goldfish bowl, how much will be diverted to mortgages & loans, or servicing them at higher rates. How many will be ultra cautious and stay away, and wait & see ? How many will put off buying new assets, cars. appliances ?
Is the dip over or just starting towards something like we saw with onslaught of Covid in March/April 2020 ?
SailorRob
03-06-2024, 08:35 AM
Watch then for the PE and valuation multiple expansion which is of course the biggest driver of any share price.
Here is a great article explaining why this from Balance is totally wrong and has very little effect at all. Strongly suggest reading it, it's not long.
https://www.lindselltrain.com/application/files/2117/1472/4230/A_Very_Long_Hill_-_April_2024.pdf
Bikeguy
03-06-2024, 09:17 AM
Here is a great article explaining why this from Balance is totally wrong and has very little effect at all. Strongly suggest reading it, it's not long.
https://www.lindselltrain.com/application/files/2117/1472/4230/A_Very_Long_Hill_-_April_2024.pdf
The article makes some fair points.
I have come into investing in shares pretty late in life, in the Covid wave of investors, and the biggest lesson I have started to learn is patience…several stocks have taught me some hard lessons, lol…A2 being one of them…
I would have been better off in the bank at 6.1% but the lessons I have learned are valuable too..
SailorRob
03-06-2024, 09:26 AM
The article makes some fair points.
I have come into investing in shares pretty late in life, in the Covid wave of investors, and the biggest lesson I have started to learn is patience…several stocks have taught me some hard lessons, lol…A2 being one of them…
I would have been better off in the bank at 6.1% but the lessons I have learned are valuable too..
Good stuff Bikeguy, if you understand the points in the article you are doing well as a relative newbie. Of course changes in PE drive everything short term but very difficult if not impossible to predict and time.
Yes patience is everything in this game, focus on the business not the share price.
Anything people are talking about at the BBQ, stay away.
Perhaps you would have been better off in the bank even if rates were Negative 10%?
Valuegrowth
05-06-2024, 07:52 PM
52-Week range 0.96-1.84
I thought of buying it around 1.02. There is something that we don't know. It has dropped all the way from 1.84 to below $0.99. What would be the main reason. I have had terrible experience in investing in the financial sector. I can still remember all financial stocks dropped like hot potatoes before they went to receiverships. However, HGH is not like other banks and finance companies. Currently, it has lost its momentum. Investors are waiting for something to cheer.
bull....
17-06-2024, 04:30 PM
new lows coming :scared:
new lows coming :scared:
He/she says with great glee.
new lows coming :scared:
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/on-the-inside/519625/no-sign-of-property-prices-going-up-what-is-happening-with-the-nz-housing-market-this-week
This is sending shivers down the spine of loads of people. NZ economy is on a further downward spiral. I am happy with my HGH holding and may add more.
bull....
17-06-2024, 04:57 PM
He/she says with great glee.
you obviously never listened to sailor rob. you want lower stock price not higher stock price. right lol
Did you know they have a float too they play with.
Leemsip
18-06-2024, 08:59 AM
Looked into HGH the other day. $1.6 billion in car loans scared me off. They are increasing market share of these loans aggressively into a declining market.
No indication of if they are loaning these to sub prime (second hand clunkers) market or to prime (new flash ones) borrowers.... Could easy see the deliquency rate picking up over the next couple of years in the downturn...
I think this thing goes lower from here.
Snoopy
18-06-2024, 09:38 AM
Looked into HGH the other day. $1.6 billion in car loans scared me off. They are increasing market share of these loans aggressively into a declining market.
No indication of if they are loaning these to sub prime (second hand clunkers) market or to prime (new flash ones) borrowers.... Could easy see the deliquency rate picking up over the next couple of years in the downturn...
I think this thing goes lower from here.
I think you need to look a bit more carefully. From AR2023 p33:
"Heartland launched an "iOwn"guaranteed future value product across the Peugeot, Citroen and Opel range of vehicles"
From p17 AR2022
"Key partners ...Kia (through Kia Finance and offering Kia Konfidence) (and) Jaguar Land Rover."
Also from p17 AR2022
"Key partners , including branded white label partnerships contributed $293m of total new motor business in FY2012"
From AR2022 p97 and p98 motor vehicle loan assets increased from $1,288m to $1,382m an increase of $94m. If the key partners loans increased by nearly $200m more than that (and they did, so obviously about $200m of older loans rolled off over the same period), this would indicate that a very large amount of the new Heartland motor business, could be as high as 100%, was funding new cars.
Consequently I would suggest that your comment that there is no indication where these motor loans are coming from, and a lot of the motor loans are to sub prime lenders is scurrilous, ill researched and just plain wrong. Of course there is nothing to stop new car buyers defaulting on their loans in a really bad downturn. But so far, a lot more people are keeping their jobs than might be expected in a significant recession. And if a new car buyer does default, the chances are a good quality asset can be repossessed to pay that loan balance off.
SNOOPY
Leemsip
18-06-2024, 10:15 AM
Ah wasnt intending to be scurrilous (although obviously was ill researched).
I just didnt find the bit which indicated the quality of the loans... Ive done a bit of research on car loan defaults (as part of this quick piece on HGH), and new cars had a much lower default ratio during the GFC. Subprime motor vehicle lending got hammered.
Thanks Snoopy, it is this sort of information that makes the website worthwhile.
This does make me happier on the company, I will take another look. I like the rest of the business and see it as low risk...
Given market vibes and general lack of good research, I wonder if this goes lower anyway due to my comments above...
Forrestdun
24-06-2024, 04:47 PM
ACC has been buying up big
winner69
24-06-2024, 04:54 PM
ACC has been buying up big
They have indeed …maybe a good sign
bull....
24-06-2024, 05:27 PM
they do get investments wrong. the main dude said in nov last yr nvidia not really worth us owning
ronaldson
24-06-2024, 05:33 PM
Given the SPH Notices discloses a current holding of 46.8m shares we can't know it all, but since 21 February this year they have purchased 34m shares at an average $1.05 and sold 2.5m at an average of $1.11 for a net gain of around 31.5m shares at, say, $1.045ish.
That is (as usual for ACC) good trading, although more recently the share price has tanked below that acquisition cost. I wonder at what effective price they are now holding their whole 5% stake? Regardless, it does seem a good sign that they have reached the disclosure threshold and are on the Register. Similarly, for ACC to sell now would definitely show a lack of confidence.
Need to wait now to see how the 30 June Financial Statements are, when available. That is a short timeframe post the Challenger settlement but the quantum of provisioning for MV lending losses will be interesting as a guide to how it is out there.
Snoopy
24-06-2024, 07:11 PM
they do get investments wrong. the main dude said in nov last yr nvidia not really worth us owning
You can't make wild judgements like that with no back up. You have to supply at least one example of where the ACC got their investments wrong...... ;)
SNOOPY
Valuegrowth
24-06-2024, 07:15 PM
ACC has been buying up bigThey can keep it for the long run. Once buying drying up stock prices may come down to around 0.90. Besides there's an uncertainty in the financial sector. If unemployment rate rise savings will drop further. Demand for assets also will drop. Outlook for global banking sector is not that good given the mountain of debt levels and all-time high asset prices.
stoploss
24-06-2024, 07:37 PM
You can't make wild judgements like that with no back up. You have to supply at least one example of where the ACC got their investments wrong...... ;)
SNOOPY
Pike River didn't go well ...
https://www.parliament.nz/en/document/50HansQ_20131121_00000003
Is raising long term debt at 8.1% in Australia good?
Heartland Group Holdings Limited (Heartland) (NZX/ASX: HGH) is pleased to
announce that its subsidiary Heartland Bank Australia Limited (Heartland Bank
Australia) (BBB Outlook: Stable, Fitch Ratings) successfully completed an
inaugural A$50 million Tier 2 Subordinated Note transaction (Subordinated
Notes) on Friday 28 June 2024, arranged with the assistance of Westpac
Banking Corporation.
The 10-year non-call 5-year Subordinated Notes qualify as Tier 2 Capital
under the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority's capital adequacy
framework for authorised deposit-taking institutions (ADIs), and were priced
at 370 basis points over the 3-month Bank Bill Swap Rate.
Snow Leopard
01-07-2024, 06:19 PM
Is raising long term debt at 8.1% in Australia good?
The likes of CBA,ANZ have been getting away with around BBSW+2.85% on their most recent offerings.
So I guess 3.70% is not bad for a minnow. :t_up:
ronaldson
10-07-2024, 09:49 AM
Trading in this share is pretty flat, with no momentum to break the $1 ceiling that has prevailed for a while now. We seem to be in a holding pattern, albeit with good volume, pending the next news announcement, likely the 30 June results.
Could go either way at that point judging by the current pattern? I think the upside potential must be greater from the current level but there is a lot of stress out there, including in Australia.
ronaldson
18-07-2024, 07:23 PM
Back to $1 today for the first time in a while after a bit of a clean out of depth on the sell side.
Valuegrowth
18-07-2024, 07:31 PM
Back to $1 today for the first time in a while after a bit of a clean out of depth on the sell side. On a high Volume.
Trading in this share is pretty flat, with no momentum to break the $1 ceiling that has prevailed for a while now. We seem to be in a holding pattern, albeit with good volume, pending the next news announcement, likely the 30 June results.
Could go either way at that point judging by the current pattern? I think the upside potential must be greater from the current level but there is a lot of stress out there, including in Australia.
Looking at the near future interest rates will fall resulting in big profits for banks .
The market can be expected to appreciate this soon with a big increase in sp .
Valuegrowth
19-07-2024, 07:50 AM
Looking at the near future interest rates will fall resulting in big profits for banks .
The market can be expected to appreciate this soon with a big increase in sp . Yes if banks can expand loan portfolio and manage well. However they will have lower net interest margins.
Panda-NZ-
19-07-2024, 08:04 AM
There might be some "unexpected delays" in passing on the interest rate reductions ;)
Except for savings with the bank of course. That's forward looking
LaserEyeKiwi
19-07-2024, 10:38 AM
Back to $1 today for the first time in a while after a bit of a clean out of depth on the sell side.
Broke out above its 50 day moving average for the first time this year.
Broke out above its 50 day moving average for the first time this year.
Sellers are becoming sparse .
Strong potential for further rise in sp
flyinglizard
19-07-2024, 10:50 AM
index is going to turn around, but high dividend yield shares are safe.
Valuegrowth
19-07-2024, 10:59 AM
index is going to turn around, but high dividend yield shares are safe.Thanks. I love high dividend yeilds. High dividend yeilds have become my 2nd major capital gain.
flyinglizard
19-07-2024, 11:06 AM
Thanks. I love high dividend yeilds. High dividend yeilds have become my 2nd major capital gain.
I found that over 10% dividend yield shares are more attractive at moment, slow or negative growth everywhere. Play safe for blue chips. I guess banking industry is well protected in this funny business cycle.
Valuegrowth
19-07-2024, 12:04 PM
I found that over 10% dividend yield shares are more attractive at moment, slow or negative growth everywhere. Play safe for blue chips. I guess banking industry is well protected in this funny business cycle.
Other good thing to have high dividend yield firms is when market tank there is some income for personal needs or reinvestment. Companies that I will avoid are those who pay dividends by borrowing rather than reducing debt. In short strong balance sheet, cash rich companies declare high dividends and sustainable too.
LaserEyeKiwi
19-07-2024, 12:16 PM
$1.06!
We off to the races?
flyinglizard
19-07-2024, 12:21 PM
Other good thing to have high dividend yield firms is when market tank there is some income for personal needs or reinvestment. Companies that I will avoid are those who pay dividends by borrowing rather than reducing debt. In short strong balance sheet, cash rich companies declare high dividends and sustainable too.
Definitely. If the interest rate is going to drop soon, then high dividend shares (MUST have stable profitability)will become more popular. It seems that only FCG, LIC, HGH and 2CC in that category. 2CC has very tidy market value with liquidity issue. FCG and LIC do not allow non-farmers to buy. So only HGH stays around 10% dividend yield. Another great company HLG may have around 8%-9% dividend yield but in retail sector. I am a bit nervous about the retail sector.
Earning reports season, I guess most of listed companies may face not good looking result in this year, so safety call, safety call. PS: The US tech bubble...............
Good to see a couple of STr favorites, HGH and OCA, smashing it. Happy days for all and hopefully less agro lol
Lets all get rich together :cool:
850man
19-07-2024, 02:18 PM
Good to see a couple of STr favorites, HGH and OCA, smashing it. Happy days for all and hopefully less agro lol
Lets all get rich together :cool:
Not getting rich myself but hopefully less red on the portfolio
Balance
19-07-2024, 02:21 PM
When the pig (CR overhang) has moved through the python, HGH should catch up with the other banks as it seriously lags behind them in a big way.
Valuegrowth
19-07-2024, 02:28 PM
Definitely. If the interest rate is going to drop soon, then high dividend shares (MUST have stable profitability)will become more popular. It seems that only FCG, LIC, HGH and 2CC in that category. 2CC has very tidy market value with liquidity issue. FCG and LIC do not allow non-farmers to buy. So only HGH stays around 10% dividend yield. Another great company HLG may have around 8%-9% dividend yield but in retail sector. I am a bit nervous about the retail sector.
Earning reports season, I guess most of listed companies may face not good looking result in this year, so safety call, safety call. PS: The US tech bubble...............
Thank you for the information. Best managed companies should do well in the retail sector. For a long time I didn't have one in that sector . But there could be seasonal. opportunities. Thing is not all stocks are suited for long term. Some are for very short term less than one year.Re. tech bubble: Agree. Play safe is the best option right now. Internet was a big hype those days. We saw Dot com crash. At the beginning of industrial revolution like invention of trains there was a great depression. All bubble ended up with burst. First time I was able to manage my concentrated portfolio successfully over the last 3 years after covid-19.Winners are in. Losers are out. I may have some more opportunity to accumulate quality stocks at fair price over the next 18 months specially in market sell-offs.
Valuegrowth
19-07-2024, 02:50 PM
Currently, HGH is bucking the trend.
flyinglizard
19-07-2024, 03:39 PM
Thank you for the information. Best managed companies should do well in the retail sector. For a long time I didn't have one in that sector . But there could be seasonal. opportunities. Thing is not all stocks are suited for long term. Some are for very short term less than one year.Re. tech bubble: Agree. Play safe is the best option right now. Internet was a big hype those days. We saw Dot com crash. At the beginning of industrial revolution like invention of trains there was a great depression. All bubble ended up with burst. First time I was able to manage my concentrated portfolio successfully over the last 3 years after covid-19.Winners are in. Losers are out. I may have some more opportunity to accumulate quality stocks at fair price over the next 18 months specially in market sell-offs.
I prefer to hold less shares and avoid to exposure to more downgrade earning risks. From over $20 SP companies, all significantly held by funds, like dead water. Most of SP less than $0.80 companies have liquidity problem. The retail rectors look bad now, then Retirement village companies bad timing. energy companies overvalued, all PE greater than 20, and a couple of them PE >200.
Only banking sector is stable. ANZ (PE 13) and WBC (PE 15), dividend yield is around 5-6%. HGH PE = 9.3, dividend yield =10%. Its SP is near the historically bottom ( 2020 covid bottom was $0.89). We cannot be worst than 2020 right? It seems HGH is the only spot light currently.
flyinglizard
19-07-2024, 05:13 PM
was that an off market trade? about $1.8m changing hands in the last minute?
Baa_Baa
19-07-2024, 05:32 PM
was that an off market trade? about $1.8m changing hands in the last minute? Yes it was.
Valuegrowth
19-07-2024, 08:04 PM
I prefer to hold less shares and avoid to exposure to more downgrade earning risks. From over $20 SP companies, all significantly held by funds, like dead water. Most of SP less than $0.80 companies have liquidity problem. The retail rectors look bad now, then Retirement village companies bad timing. energy companies overvalued, all PE greater than 20, and a couple of them PE >200.
Only banking sector is stable. ANZ (PE 13) and WBC (PE 15), dividend yield is around 5-6%. HGH PE = 9.3, dividend yield =10%. Its SP is near the historically bottom ( 2020 covid bottom was $0.89). We cannot be worst than 2020 right? It seems HGH is the only spot light currently.
Thank you fliyinglizrd for your well-informed market update. I couldn’t agree more. What an intelligent analysis?
Today I looked at few stocks trading PE >200 in global markets. It’s insane to pay such an abnormal price to acquire a part of any business when there are attractive stocks in out of favour sectors.
X-men
22-07-2024, 12:28 PM
Another star to raise!! Fund from ARV will also go to HGH!
flyinglizard
22-07-2024, 12:37 PM
Another star to raise!! Fund from ARV will also go to HGH!
PB = 1.05-1.07, PE less than 9, why not? undervalued
SCOTTY
22-07-2024, 12:38 PM
3.4m traded so far today. Last trade @ $1.07. Little depth on the sell side. Looking strong :)
Davexl
22-07-2024, 02:59 PM
Saw this on Bloomberg Asia - should (already) be good for HGH...
Retirement Cash The number of Australians tapping a reverse mortgage-style product to help fund retirement is up almost 40% in the past year (https://link.mail.bloombergbusiness.com/click/36137176.35595/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYmxvb21iZXJnLmNvbS9uZXdzL2FydGljbG VzLzIwMjQtMDctMjEvYXVzdHJhbGlhbnMtdG9sZC10by1tb25l dGl6ZS10aGUtZmFtaWx5LWhvbWUtdG8tZnVuZC1yZXRpcmVtZW 50P2NtcGlkPUJCRDA3MjEyNF9NS1QmdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFp bCZ1dG1fc291cmNlPW5ld3NsZXR0ZXImdXRtX3Rlcm09MjQwNz IxJnV0bV9jYW1wYWlnbj1tYXJrZXRzYXNpYQ/5f07b4f93b6ff31b2742d39dB91234603) as calls increase for retirees to monetize the A$1.3 trillion ($870 billion) they have tied up in property. The nation’s Home Equity Access Scheme (https://link.mail.bloombergbusiness.com/click/36137176.35595/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuc2VydmljZXNhdXN0cmFsaWEuZ292LmF1L2 hvbWUtZXF1aXR5LWFjY2Vzcy1zY2hlbWU/5f07b4f93b6ff31b2742d39dBff0bd9b9) was used by more than 13,000 people in the year to June. Under the program, people who have reached the pension age of 67 can borrow against the equity in their property and take out a government loan. Those loans are generally recovered when the secured property is sold or from the person’s estate.
Snoopy
22-07-2024, 03:16 PM
Saw this on Bloomberg Asia - should (already) be good for HGH...
Retirement Cash The number of Australians tapping a reverse mortgage-style product to help fund retirement is up almost 40% in the past year (https://link.mail.bloombergbusiness.com/click/36137176.35595/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYmxvb21iZXJnLmNvbS9uZXdzL2FydGljbG VzLzIwMjQtMDctMjEvYXVzdHJhbGlhbnMtdG9sZC10by1tb25l dGl6ZS10aGUtZmFtaWx5LWhvbWUtdG8tZnVuZC1yZXRpcmVtZW 50P2NtcGlkPUJCRDA3MjEyNF9NS1QmdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFp bCZ1dG1fc291cmNlPW5ld3NsZXR0ZXImdXRtX3Rlcm09MjQwNz IxJnV0bV9jYW1wYWlnbj1tYXJrZXRzYXNpYQ/5f07b4f93b6ff31b2742d39dB91234603) as calls increase for retirees to monetize the A$1.3 trillion ($870 billion) they have tied up in property. The nation’s Home Equity Access Scheme (https://link.mail.bloombergbusiness.com/click/36137176.35595/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuc2VydmljZXNhdXN0cmFsaWEuZ292LmF1L2 hvbWUtZXF1aXR5LWFjY2Vzcy1zY2hlbWU/5f07b4f93b6ff31b2742d39dBff0bd9b9) was used by more than 13,000 people in the year to June. Under the program, people who have reached the pension age of 67 can borrow against the equity in their property and take out a government loan. Those loans are generally recovered when the secured property is sold or from the person’s estate.
This article references the Australian government annuity scheme. For a slice of your house you can supplement your retirement income. It is interesting that the number of people making use of this product has risen by 40% in the last year. Yet I have to ask 40% up from 'what figure'?
You cannot draw a significant lump sum from this government scheme, which is where Heartland and their reverse mortgages comes in. I think the Heartland and Government products are more complimentary than competitive.
SNOOPY
ronaldson
23-07-2024, 03:08 PM
Given the SPH Notices discloses a current holding of 46.8m shares we can't know it all, but since 21 February this year they have purchased 34m shares at an average $1.05 and sold 2.5m at an average of $1.11 for a net gain of around 31.5m shares at, say, $1.045ish.
That is (as usual for ACC) good trading, although more recently the share price has tanked below that acquisition cost. I wonder at what effective price they are now holding their whole 5% stake? Regardless, it does seem a good sign that they have reached the disclosure threshold and are on the Register. Similarly, for ACC to sell now would definitely show a lack of confidence.
Need to wait now to see how the 30 June Financial Statements are, when available. That is a short timeframe post the Challenger settlement but the quantum of provisioning for MV lending losses will be interesting as a guide to how it is out there.
The above from my post on 24 June.
ACC looking pretty clever now!
flyinglizard
23-07-2024, 03:21 PM
The above from my post on 24 June.
ACC looking pretty clever now!
Maybe they just try to press down the SP and wait for another takeover. :)
X-men
24-07-2024, 08:54 AM
Another green I reconk today....SP will get to $1.20 and Hoover around that mark before the result.
So much 💰💰💰 coming from Arvida and WHS that need a new place to put
flyinglizard
24-07-2024, 11:51 AM
Given the SPH Notices discloses a current holding of 46.8m shares we can't know it all, but since 21 February this year they have purchased 34m shares at an average $1.05 and sold 2.5m at an average of $1.11 for a net gain of around 31.5m shares at, say, $1.045ish.
That is (as usual for ACC) good trading, although more recently the share price has tanked below that acquisition cost. I wonder at what effective price they are now holding their whole 5% stake? Regardless, it does seem a good sign that they have reached the disclosure threshold and are on the Register. Similarly, for ACC to sell now would definitely show a lack of confidence.
Need to wait now to see how the 30 June Financial Statements are, when available. That is a short timeframe post the Challenger settlement but the quantum of provisioning for MV lending losses will be interesting as a guide to how it is out there.
Yeah, you are right. It may be that ACC tries to block the way uptrend. When they did this in Feb, at that time, everyone knew high mortgage pain last till end of the year or early of next year, that was a clever short term trading. However, now all media, people and commercial banks put huge pressure on RBNZ to lower OCR, situation may change. Four big banks started lower mortgage rate rapidly, all data implies the CPI has been dropped better than expected, and we just wait for RBNZ Aug MPS, the toner may change. If ACC is still doing this now, that would be very shortsighted. In the long run, HGH is a seriously undervalued company, I would not be surprised if it becomes a takeover target.
Greekwatchdog
25-07-2024, 10:23 AM
Yeah, you are right. It may be that ACC tries to block the way uptrend. When they did this in Feb, at that time, everyone knew high mortgage pain last till end of the year or early of next year, that was a clever short term trading. However, now all media, people and commercial banks put huge pressure on RBNZ to lower OCR, situation may change. Four big banks started lower mortgage rate rapidly, all data implies the CPI has been dropped better than expected, and we just wait for RBNZ Aug MPS, the toner may change. If ACC is still doing this now, that would be very shortsighted. In the long run, HGH is a seriously undervalued company, I would not be surprised if it becomes a takeover target.
Kiwibank should buy HGH and grow there business from here. HGH runs very lean so wouldn't be hard to merge the two together. The fact that HGH are already well established in Aust makes total sense to me.
percy
25-07-2024, 10:33 AM
Kiwibank should buy HGH and grow there business from here. HGH runs very lean so wouldn't be hard to merge the two together. The fact that HGH are already well established in Aust makes total sense to me.
Makes no sense to me.
Very different business models.
Greekwatchdog
25-07-2024, 10:42 AM
Makes no sense to me.
Very different business models.
Maybe, but would compliment one and other especially given Kiwibank wants to grow. Nothing wrong with diversifying your product.
thegreatestben
25-07-2024, 10:42 AM
Kiwibank would ruin anything HGH has that is good.
Greekwatchdog
25-07-2024, 10:56 AM
Kiwibank would ruin anything HGH has that is good.
Maybe, maybe not, in the end if they own it who cares as you the shareholder has been paid out.
thegreatestben
25-07-2024, 11:01 AM
I don't want to be paid out! I want to be scrooge mcduck swimming in all the money HGH has made me when I'm old :t_up:
ValueNZ
25-07-2024, 11:07 AM
I want to be scrooge mcduck swimming in all the money HGH has made me when I'm old :t_up:
That's the one!
Big number = winning right?
thegreatestben
25-07-2024, 11:12 AM
Big number = no more 40 hour weeks = Have some kids and be a present parent = winning.
X-men
25-07-2024, 01:01 PM
Weakness in sp...time to top up!!
flyinglizard
25-07-2024, 01:55 PM
There is an article today, " government open to selling KIWIBANK as it reviews why it owns various companies". KIWIBANK need more capital to grow and challenge big four. It does not have sufficient capital to run acquisition.
Greekwatchdog
25-07-2024, 02:26 PM
There is an article today, " government open to selling KIWIBANK as it reviews why it owns various companies". KIWIBANK need more capital to grow and challenge big four. It does not have sufficient capital to run acquisition.
Yes I read it. Whos to say Super Fund/ACC cant buy 50% off Govt then inject the capital??? Or wait do a capital raise. After all don't we have capitalist's in government who like to see money well placed to grow returns for future generations?
flyinglizard
25-07-2024, 03:34 PM
Yes I read it. Whos to say Super Fund/ACC cant buy 50% off Govt then inject the capital??? Or wait do a capital raise. After all don't we have capitalist's in government who like to see money well placed to grow returns for future generations?
I prefer the super fund, not ACC, that just do some arbitrage, shortsighted.
X-men
01-08-2024, 11:42 AM
Big volume today...
Result is coming soon....4c dividend?
PointyHat
01-08-2024, 05:48 PM
Any ideas if HGH are having IT probs? I got this first page :
We’re undergoing maintenance
Sorry for the inconvenience. We’ll be back up and running as soon as possible.
In the meantime, if you need help with your savings or deposit accounts, please email deposits@heartland.co.nz.
For business loan enquiries, please email info@openforbusiness.co.nz.
For all other enquiries, please call us on 0800 85 20 20.
We’re here to help.
And the second page it went to follows:
What happened?
There is an unknown connection issue between Cloudflare and the origin web server. As a result, the web page can not be displayed.
What can I do?
If you are a visitor of this website:
Please try again in a few minutes.
If you are the owner of this website:
There is an issue between Cloudflare's cache and your origin web server. Cloudflare monitors for these errors and automatically investigates the cause. To help support the investigation, you can pull the corresponding error log from your web server and submit it our support team. Please include the Ray ID (which is at the bottom of this error page). Additional troubleshooting resources.
winner69
01-08-2024, 05:53 PM
Any ideas if HGH are having IT probs? I got this first page :
We’re undergoing maintenance
Sorry for the inconvenience. We’ll be back up and running as soon as possible.
In the meantime, if you need help with your savings or deposit accounts, please email deposits@heartland.co.nz.
For business loan enquiries, please email info@openforbusiness.co.nz.
For all other enquiries, please call us on 0800 85 20 20.
We’re here to help.
And the second page it went to follows:
What happened?
There is an unknown connection issue between Cloudflare and the origin web server. As a result, the web page can not be displayed.
What can I do?
If you are a visitor of this website:
Please try again in a few minutes.
If you are the owner of this website:
There is an issue between Cloudflare's cache and your origin web server. Cloudflare monitors for these errors and automatically investigates the cause. To help support the investigation, you can pull the corresponding error log from your web server and submit it our support team. Please include the Ray ID (which is at the bottom of this error page). Additional troubleshooting resources.
I got that Cloudflare bit while trying to access another site today
Seems the Internet going to the pot these days
Remember the days when STr would go down for like 3 days in a row. The whole NZX was directionless
percy
01-08-2024, 06:18 PM
I sent an email to Craigs at 9.45 am and they received it at 12.45 pm.
They blamed it on issues with "Outlook".
Grimy
01-08-2024, 06:24 PM
Yes, Outlook was certainly affected. Quite a big outage today, affecting police and parliament amongst others. My wife couldn't get into her roster (on the company supplied phone) to clock in/out at clients.
The only issue I had was when logging onto Jarden Direct this morning, the pages would open, but not load content (only headers). Tried again half an hour later and it was fine.
thegreatestben
01-08-2024, 06:37 PM
Microsoft had more outages today. Was causing us some issues at work.
X-men
02-08-2024, 09:14 AM
3-4 years term deposit rate is now under 5%!!!
PointyHat
02-08-2024, 10:54 AM
Accessibility to HGH web page and accounts all good now.
Fingers crossed for HGH's full year reporting on 29th August.
Balance
02-08-2024, 03:09 PM
Accessibility to HGH web page and accounts all good now.
Fingers crossed for HGH's full year reporting on 29th August.
Results should be in line with market expectations. Which will be good as sp suggests otherwise.
If there’s any trading update to the contrary, should have happened by now.
flyinglizard
02-08-2024, 03:55 PM
HGH.ASX runs better than HGH.NZ
X-men
13-08-2024, 10:26 AM
Result in two weeks time....looks like will around 3c a share dividend according to brokers
Result in two weeks time....looks like will around 3c a share dividend according to brokers
Well, these guys report tomorrow. They’ve owned that Aussie bank for ~ 4 months now. Wonder what skeletons they’ve found ?
Looking forward to their result. Good luck holders.
850man
29-08-2024, 09:22 AM
Heartland announces solid FY2024 result, sets foundation for continued growth
Heartland Group Holdings Limited (Heartland) (NZX/ASX: HGH) has announced a net profit after tax (NPAT) of $74.5 million for the financial year ended 30 June 2024 (FY2024). On an underlying basis, FY2024 NPAT was $102.7 million.
In a challenging economic environment, Heartland achieved solid gross finance receivables (Receivables) growth, up 6.4% on the financial year ended 30 June 2023 (FY2023). While some volatility is expected to continue through the remainder of the 2024 calendar year, the longer-term outlook for Heartland is positive. Having executed significant strategic milestones in FY2024, further growth is anticipated in the financial year ending 30 June 2025 (FY2025) as Heartland continues towards its ambitions for the financial year ending 30 June 2028 (FY2028).
Heartland’s FY2024 result was impacted by the rapidly deteriorating economic conditions in May and June 2024 which saw the emergence of additional provisions primarily in Heartland Bank Limited’s (Heartland Bank’s) Asset Finance, Motor Finance and Rural portfolios. This resulted in a 4.9% shortfall to guidance. This late increase in provisions reflects (amongst other things) enhancements to Heartland Bank’s Motor Finance provisioning model, a more conservative provisioning approach on certain Rural exposures, and the effect of the sustained inflationary environment on some consumer and business borrowers.
Highlights
‒ Solid FY2024 result achieved in a challenging economic environment.
-- One-off or non-cash technical items had a $28.2 million impact on NPAT.
-- The shortfall to guidance was largely due to the late increase of $10.1 million of provisions, primarily in Heartland Bank’s Asset Finance, Motor Finance and Rural portfolios (without which Heartland would have seen a result within guidance).
‒ Growth in Receivables of 6.4% ($432.1 million) on FY2023 to $7.2 billion in FY2024.
-- Reverse Mortgages up 20.2% in New Zealand and 19.7% in Australia.
-- Asset Finance up 8.0% in a market with difficult trading conditions.
-- Motor Finance up 3.8% in a market where total new and used car sales by dealers were down by 12.7%.
‒ Significant strategic milestones set the foundation to achieve FY2028 growth ambitions.
-- Completed the acquisition of Challenger Bank Limited (Challenger Bank) and subsequently rebranded the authorised deposit taking institution (ADI) to Heartland Bank Australia Limited (Heartland Bank Australia).
-- Successfully completed a $210 million equity raise to fund the acquisition, with strong investor support.
-- Heartland Bank’s core banking system was successfully upgraded, enabling increased digitalisation and automation.
Final divvy 3c fully imputed.
Sideshow Bob
29-08-2024, 09:22 AM
Well, these guys report tomorrow. They’ve owned that Aussie bank for ~ 4 months now. Wonder what skeletons they’ve found ?
Looking forward to their result. Good luck holders.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/437072
Heartland announces solid FY2024 result
Heartland announces solid FY2024 result, sets foundation for continued growth
Heartland Group Holdings Limited (Heartland) (NZX/ASX: HGH) has announced a net profit after tax (NPAT) of $74.5 million for the financial year ended 30 June 2024 (FY2024). On an underlying basis, FY2024 NPAT was $102.7 million.
In a challenging economic environment, Heartland achieved solid gross finance receivables (Receivables) growth, up 6.4% on the financial year ended 30 June 2023 (FY2023). While some volatility is expected to continue through the remainder of the 2024 calendar year, the longer-term outlook for Heartland is positive. Having executed significant strategic milestones in FY2024, further growth is anticipated in the financial year ending 30 June 2025 (FY2025) as Heartland continues towards its ambitions for the financial year ending 30 June 2028 (FY2028).
Heartland’s FY2024 result was impacted by the rapidly deteriorating economic conditions in May and June 2024 which saw the emergence of additional provisions primarily in Heartland Bank Limited’s (Heartland Bank’s) Asset Finance, Motor Finance and Rural portfolios. This resulted in a 4.9% shortfall to guidance. This late increase in provisions reflects (amongst other things) enhancements to Heartland Bank’s Motor Finance provisioning model, a more conservative provisioning approach on certain Rural exposures, and the effect of the sustained inflationary environment on some consumer and business borrowers.
Highlights
‒ Solid FY2024 result achieved in a challenging economic environment.
-- One-off or non-cash technical items had a $28.2 million impact on NPAT.
-- The shortfall to guidance was largely due to the late increase of $10.1 million of provisions, primarily in Heartland Bank’s Asset Finance, Motor Finance and Rural portfolios (without which Heartland would have seen a result within guidance).
‒ Growth in Receivables of 6.4% ($432.1 million) on FY2023 to $7.2 billion in FY2024.
-- Reverse Mortgages up 20.2% in New Zealand and 19.7% in Australia.
-- Asset Finance up 8.0% in a market with difficult trading conditions.
-- Motor Finance up 3.8% in a market where total new and used car sales by dealers were down by 12.7%.
‒ Significant strategic milestones set the foundation to achieve FY2028 growth ambitions.
-- Completed the acquisition of Challenger Bank Limited (Challenger Bank) and subsequently rebranded the authorised deposit taking institution (ADI) to Heartland Bank Australia Limited (Heartland Bank Australia).
-- Successfully completed a $210 million equity raise to fund the acquisition, with strong investor support.
-- Heartland Bank’s core banking system was successfully upgraded, enabling increased digitalisation and automation.
bull....
29-08-2024, 09:39 AM
as expected nim getting crushed still , reduced div ( i thought it would be 2c ) but they did say could be still reduced in time due to challenging yr ahead. looks like reverse mtges are the highlight as bad debts and doubtful loans are increasing rapidly on the rest.
X-men
29-08-2024, 09:52 AM
Spot on..3c dividend...up and go now!!
Leemsip
29-08-2024, 09:59 AM
Looked into HGH the other day. $1.6 billion in car loans scared me off. They are increasing market share of these loans aggressively into a declining market.
No indication of if they are loaning these to sub prime (second hand clunkers) market or to prime (new flash ones) borrowers.... Could easy see the deliquency rate picking up over the next couple of years in the downturn...
I think this thing goes lower from here.
---------------------------------------------------
Hmm
The shortfall to guidance was largely due to the late increase of $10.1 million of provisions, primarily in Heartland Bank’s Asset Finance, Motor Finance and Rural portfolios (without which Heartland would have seen a result within guidance).
Any comments @ Snoopy? Got called out as scurrilous and ill researched for this comment earlier... (which I didnt disagree with lol)
Provisions go up in economic downturns though eh?
flyinglizard
29-08-2024, 10:05 AM
The comment definitely scared the market, sp down to $1.06
Balance
29-08-2024, 10:06 AM
---------------------------------------------------
Hmm
The shortfall to guidance was largely due to the late increase of $10.1 million of provisions, primarily in Heartland Bank’s Asset Finance, Motor Finance and Rural portfolios (without which Heartland would have seen a result within guidance).
Any comments @ Snoopy? Got called out as scurrilous and ill researched for this comment earlier... (which I didnt disagree with lol)
Provisions go up in economic downturns though eh?
Impaired asset expense $46.4m.
Data provided to RBNZ back in early August (to June 2024) showed 42.3m (which excluded Australia).
https://bankdashboard.rbnz.govt.nz/orgs/HEART-BK
Well within expectations for anyone who follows the stock.
im not surprised about the extra $10m provision for asset finance/motor and rural.
wonder if its enough????
they are also adding back a $11.5m provision for subset of legacy lending?? is that right to do?... if you dont add it back their underlying target is well missed...
Gosh it really is a hard read lol..
Definitely bottom of the cycle stuff. Need to look through it and into the future $200m unpat glory days to come
X-men
29-08-2024, 10:51 AM
Any results will not satisfy the market..because .. people are currently tied up their money on the term deposit...
LaserEyeKiwi
29-08-2024, 12:21 PM
Got an order in to my broker this morning to increase my holdings by 33% - hopefully price stays down long enough today for my trade to be placed.
Underlying growth continues to be extremely good, digging into fine print NIM already improving at end of reporting period.
This is one for the long term holders who aren’t after a quick trade - you are buying at the bottom of the cycle and will reap the long term rewards if you engage diamond hands (to borrow a phrase from Gen Z)
X-men
29-08-2024, 12:29 PM
I agree with u
bull....
29-08-2024, 03:04 PM
xman you seem to be invested in a few dud's. least the div pay for the lap-dance eh
X-men
29-08-2024, 03:26 PM
Fkng eh....love the dividend now....the term deposit is going down...another 6months ... people are flocking to buy dividend shares
bull....
29-08-2024, 04:53 PM
might be reduced div next yr on that result :scared: under 1 again soon ?
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