Trade Me (TME)

[peat]

could be a hammer reversal.
ya reckon?
whats that echo I hear.


Good one pest

now I'm a pest :mellow:

:laugh:

you're definitely in for a wedgie.



Don't follow DIL thread at all sorry, (I read most threads but not all)

[peat]

5285

all funds are buying according to Bing (Microsoft) finance app.



Note I do not understand how they gather this information or have not attempted to verify it. but its there for all to see , and comparing it with other co';s on NZX most have some funds that are shown as sellers

[ratkin]

5285

all funds are buying according to Bing (Microsoft) finance app.



If they are all buying , who i selling?

[peat]

If they are all buying , who i selling?

good question

on the second page :p some of the funds listed are actually selling


5288

I didn't even realise there was a second page :(

[winner69]

Maybe it was a wedgie after al peat

Whatever at 420 it's 5% above that 400 support line

Hope you cashing in

[Toasty]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11185558 Morningstar says its a growth stock. Time to sell?

[peat]

Maybe it was a wedgie after al peat

Whatever at 420 it's 5% above that 400 support line

Hope you cashing in

no I'm not
I don't actually have a way to purchase any NZ shares as CMC removed them from their CFD platform.
I am registering with Craigs (for sentimental reasons) and waiting impatiently for my order to be actioned. Old School Broker but very nice offices on 32nd floor of Vero building.

I consider $5:00 as the minimum target for this pattern to play out properly and hopefully break new highs in time.

[tricha]

Completely agree with you here.
This is my observation as well.
Particularly for the smaller stuff. A lot of clothes and shoes being purchased directly from overseas.
Trademe might still be viable for the larger items though....for awhile longer

Trademe got to greedy.

Its game on, ($20 to sell a car) check the bottom half of the web site out. http://www.autotrader.co.nz/

[winner69]

Peat - TME back to 4 bucks again

What does the chart look like now .... at least 400 or thereabouts is holding as supoort

[ratkin]

It probably looks more like a semi wedgie now

[peat]

yeh the pattern is not performing as hoped, however the Bulkowski encyclopaedia shows a number of examples with false breakouts in either direction. Current events wont be helping.
I have set a point of exit on a weekly close below 3.80. (Hopefully no one can game this)

[shonen knife]

I've been out of NZ for 5+ years, and when I left it seemed like a lot of people were getting annoyed at the fees becoming unreasonable. This still seems to be the case, yet Trade Me is still expanding and competition seems to come and go. It seems like Wheedle, Craigslist etc. have all tried and failed to nip at its heels, would that be correct? So Trade Me doesn't really have much more room for growth unless it expands into other markets as it has done previously?

[warthog]

I've been out of NZ for 5+ years, and when I left it seemed like a lot of people were getting annoyed at the fees becoming unreasonable. This still seems to be the case, yet Trade Me is still expanding and competition seems to come and go. It seems like Wheedle, Craigslist etc. have all tried and failed to nip at its heels, would that be correct? So Trade Me doesn't really have much more room for growth unless it expands into other markets as it has done previously?

Correct, except that new markets are sometimes not visible until they are developed.

It is very, very difficult to get traction in Trademe's markets. You basically need to take your money with a digger, grab a rake, tip it out on the lawn and burn 24/7 until it is all gone.

Additionally, if new markets open up, Trademe is well-paced to attack them and leverage its huge user-base against them. Ever wonder why Ebay hasn't launched in NZ, or Trademe in Australia?

[peat]

So Trade Me doesn't really have much more room for growth unless it expands into other markets as it has done previously?

if it can keep buying businesses at these multiples maybe it can continue to grow


Trade Me has entered into an agreement to buy Auckland-based business MotorWeb (motorweb.co.nz)
Purchase price: $19.5m
F13 EBITDA multiple: 5.3 (Forecast F14* EBITDA multiple: 4.8)
NPAT multiple: 8.3


http://news.media.mdgms.com.s3.amazonaws.com/10f29dfd03564126147ac4461e00b698

[shonen knife]

It is very, very difficult to get traction in Trademe's markets. You basically need to take your money with a digger, grab a rake, tip it out on the lawn and burn 24/7 until it is all gone.


hahahahaha, yeah the only thing I could think of that might stand a chance is a really good mobile platform.



Additionally, if new markets open up, Trademe is well-paced to attack them and leverage its huge user-base against them. Ever wonder why Ebay hasn't launched in NZ, or Trademe in Australia?

Yeah but the converse is also true, TM are limited to the NZ market. Not sure it would actually cost eBay much money to launch in NZ and I would imagine people would be keen to give it a try.

[shonen knife]

if it can keep buying businesses at these multiples maybe it can continue to grow


Trade Me has entered into an agreement to buy Auckland-based business MotorWeb (motorweb.co.nz)
Purchase price: $19.5m
F13 EBITDA multiple: 5.3 (Forecast F14* EBITDA multiple: 4.8)
NPAT multiple: 8.3


http://news.media.mdgms.com.s3.amazonaws.com/10f29dfd03564126147ac4461e00b698

I have used this service before and it is good, but not sure that is a good example of TM growing—isn't it just an extra bell & whistle (and not a very exciting one) to add to their existing motoring service? But I get your point.

[peat]

Not sure it would actually cost eBay much money to launch in NZ and I would imagine people would be keen to give it a try.

Pretty sure it has been mentioned before in this thread but to clarify eBay has already entered and exited the NZ market, and Sella.co.nz (a free listing site backed by APN) closed in March last year.

[ratkin]

Price really fallen out of bed , so much for support at 4.00

[peat]

Price really fallen out of bed , so much for support at 4.00

could be a reaction to this piece of journalism on a quiet day (few insto's trading today?)

http://www.interest.co.nz/property/68335/reaction-builds-agent-revolt-over-trade-me-fees-vendor-angry-being-uninformedcommenta#comment-765616

I guess it raises the fear that TradeMe's price rises in the property listing sector will have a negative overall impact.
It is striking though the number of people saying that the price still represents very good value given the hits they receive by listing there.
Agents trying to shape the market and Trade Me flexing its muscles a bit. Interesting standoff.

[percy]

Craig's have downgraded TME to a hold.

[artemis]

It was to be expected that realestate.co.nz would be raising its profile once the TradeMe property guy went across to run the site. According to a poster on the TradeMe real estate message board (where there is a lot of discussion both pro and con) realestate.co.nz posted scripts and pricing related to the change. Interesting reading. including this extract from the document for a featured listing:

" For $795 you get 2 full weeks of exclusive featuring on this powerful industry
website dedicated to real estate. From examples that I have seen a listing featured
for this 14 day period gets around 2,000 to 4,000 dedicated viewings whereas over
the past 2 weeks on the site your property has been viewed X times. This campaign
leading up to the tender / auction will work well to generate interest and enquiries. "


http://tinyurl.com/lsbzyvu

[peat]

Craig's still believe that TM will dominate property listings. Currently 50% of leads are from TM, only 4% from real estate's site. However they acknowledge extra marketing costs which will impact estimated profits this year.

[peat]

The data is in & facts are clear, decision by some in the RE industry to boycott @TradeMeProperty (https://twitter.com/TradeMeProperty) is hurting vendors
http://properazzi.co.nz/insights/agents-boycott-of-trade-me-hurting-vendors

[warthog]

TME volume was pretty heavy today.

1533 7.74m
1603 9.34m
1614 10.5m
1657 12.1m
1701 13.28m

[peat]

TME volume pretty heavy today.

1533 7.74m
1603 9.34m
1614 10.5m






















Name

Price

Move

Volume

Value



TME (https://www.nzx.com/markets/NZSX/securities/TME) (NZSX)

Trade Me Group Ltd

$3.940

$0.080 / 2.07%

3,102,953

$12,108,012





not that out of the ordinary
by my count 11 of the last 30 days have done similar (ish)
but still, good volume and signs of the indicators crossing

.5477

[warthog]

not that out of the ordinary
by my count 11 of the last 30 days have done similar (ish)
but still, good volume and signs of the indicators crossing

Thanks peat.

Maybe the hog got this wrong, but only two times in the last six months has share volume been as high as today.

[Snow Leopard]

Thanks peat.

Maybe the hog got this wrong, but only two times in the last six months has share volume been as high as today.

Actually 7 times:

5478

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[warthog]

Actually 7 times:

5478

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Thanks PT.

Somewhere between "11 of the last 30 days" and "two times in the last six months" lies the truth.

11 + 2 = 13
13 / 2 = 6.5

Probably somewhere around 7. Oh wait, ... :)

[axe]

TME H/Y results out tomorrow. I'm interested to see where things go.

[tosspot]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/TME/announcements/247151

Results are out, Seems way overvalued to me. trademe appear to be affecting by the surge in overseas buying online.
- Items listed have dropped
- growth is slowing down greatly
- needed to spend alot more to retain any growth
- sentiment towards share price seems to be changing aswell

[winner69]

Holy **** - the market didn't like the announcement

Peat, is your flag/pennant at half mast now?

[samdaman]

I think you've put it well toss, recent acquisitions seem strange and diverse? Is trademe expanding to focus on insurance? Speaking from a consumers point of view I grew tired of listing things on trademe when the fees kept piling up to do things, photo listing fees, buy now fees. I can understand some sort of commission but it kinda puts me off losing around 10% just to sell one item. Makes the site seem more like a shop for people who are willing to incur these fees and factor it into their mass sale of junk as I see more and more of people doing this. But hey what do I know I might be missing something blatant as I haven't been paying a great amount of attention to trademe lately.

[samdaman]

Well I think that's the general sentiment and I guess they have that on their side. But other places are popping up. A quick google came up with wheedle, sella, swapster. Wheedle alone only has a dollar selling fee if the item is over $20, under and its free. This is opposed to trademe which has 7.9% up to $200 with a 50c minimum, that's not including photo fees, reserve fees and so on. Who wants to lose 7.9% to sell a cabinet when wheedle can do it for a dollar? I think this relatively new competition in the sector may be why it's starting to lose growth.

[baller18]

I don't think people will change due to fees, this could've been said for ebay a long time ago, but no one has come close to even giving them a little scare and ebay fees are a lot more than trademe...

[tosspot]

That being said, is there anywhere better to sell you stuff within NZ?? We will eventually be selling pretty much everything we own as we are moving to the US next year. Unless we do an open house garage sale I feel the only other real option we have is TM. Am I right in thinking that?
thats a good point for sellers but its the buyers than count. since there are so many cheaper alternatives popping up worldwide there a far less buyers on trademe meaning sellers either have to take a lower price (meaning less for trademe) or just give up because its not worth the hassle.

[baller18]

Yes, you are quite right toss, before people will just look at trademe, but you could get exactly the same item on ebay for less (shipping included) but for some reason, buyers on trademe have not heard of such thing? Or thought it was too much hassle (when it was exactly the same procedure), or people had bad credit so could not have a credit card? However, that being said, most buyers are still purchasing off items from trademe, rather than ebay. But I am assuming buyers are catching on with websites, such as asos, eastbay and etc.
I never buy my sport gears retail or whatever, one perfect example is www.eastbay.com (http://www.eastbay.com), they have every brand, and every model you can think off, shipping is so fast its wows me. You order on Tuesday and it gets here on Friday.
All items are legit of course, they have partnerships with nike, adidas and etc, etc...

[Harvey Specter]

I never buy my sport gears retail or whatever, one perfect example is www.eastbay.com (http://www.eastbay.com), they have every brand, and every model you can think off, shipping is so fast its wows me. You order on Tuesday and it gets here on Friday. How much does shipping cost? Quick look suggests it is 28% of total?

I use Wiggle.co.uk (free shipping) or amazon which now has free shipping on some products where the purchase is over $125

[winner69]

Looks to me like you could run a pretty nice fitting linear regression channel on this one winner... you done that yet? (sorry haven't looked past this 1 page on the thread) Todays result suggests on first glance the downward channel is set to continue for a while yet...

Been very volatile of late though

A had done for peat when he was looking pennants / flags

Quick look says today bottom channel point is a 379 close

[baller18]

How much does shipping cost? Quick look suggests it is 28% of total?

I use Wiggle.co.uk (free shipping) or amazon which now has free shipping on some products where the purchase is over $125
Yup 28% of the total, however, they always have a 20% coupon off the total cost and most itmes always go on sale as well.

[QOH]

I lost interest in TM when there were more listings for new things than used, plus the cost of postage makes it uneconomic on low priced items.

[tosspot]

I used TM alot over the last 7 years but not in the last 12 months as I got sick of them continuely ramping up fee's and extra charge's.

Postage has also been an issue.

Based on latest results it looks like TM have finnally overcooked their fee ramping and are facing consumer back lash.

I had noticed TM had started a tv marketing campaign(first I have ever seen) to me this pointed to a down turn in growth.
So true, they really are loosing their flair. When I left school a few years ago i was basically trading on trademe for a living (pocket money) trading most weeks but in the last 12 months have probably done about 10-15 trades. mainly due to fees and alternatives.
the really need to re energize business drop fees, provide incentives and a reason to use them mainly buying increasing demand for items rather than from overseas etc.
perhaps open up an online retail store of their own at low prices

[Mista_Trix]

I receive about 20 emails a day on hits that I've set-up across the site, its definitely better than any other out there in terms of the amount of stuff that you can trawl through, as a buyer there really is no other credible alternative.

However, god knows why people put anything up there to begin with. I sold some dive gear a couple of months ago at $1,200, they took I think about $85 total. The real kick in the guts being the way that payment rolls out. A few dollars here and there for additional photos, then gallery, everything seems great ... then it sells, and all of a sudden your TradeMe account is in the red for $60 odd dollars more. And they spam you consistently until you pay it back, locking down more and more features of the site as time goes by with your account still in the red.

It was a pretty big punch in the guts as a user, I buy a LOT of stuff, but never sell. Just the realisation of the fee increase made me immediately look at the other sites available ... but as yet there just isnt enough momentum on the others to make them a credible alternative... unless there's a mass revolt in the future, which is not totally unrealistic.

[artemis]

TradeMe CEO hinting at changes to real estate bulk listing fees, also listing and promotional (prob mainly photos) fees. Link below. I have been to the last couple of annual shareholder meetings and seems the growth prospects are seen as classified ads and a vehicle for large volumes of new items, many from overseas.

Not much competition of course though Wheedle may be starting to mop up the second hand market, especially as there are no fees for sales under $20 and no limit on free listings (50 on TradeMe).


http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/9741647/Trade-Me-real-estate-ad-deal-likely-as-growth-slows

[clip]

Yep the real estate agents aren't happy. They pay a monthly fee to trademe for all the listings they want - which gives benefits to their customers (the people selling the house) as they can say we'll list it on trademe and realestate.co.nz for you, and not charge anything extra over our service fee. So say an agency does 100 listings a month - previously they would pay $1000 a month to trademe, now they would be paying $15900 almost $16k. That's a 16x increase in fees if they are listing 100 houses a month - very doable for some of the larger agencies. This is going to cause a huge backlash and I can't imagine trademe will be able to keep this rule without either 1) losing huge market share of real estate sales/listings or 2) making some form of concessions.

[clip]

Yep the real estate agents aren't happy. They pay a monthly fee to trademe for all the listings they want - which gives benefits to their customers (the people selling the house) as they can say we'll list it on trademe and realestate.co.nz for you, and not charge anything extra over our service fee. So say an agency does 100 listings a month - previously they would pay $1000 a month to trademe, now they would be paying $15900 almost $16k. That's a 16x increase in fees if they are listing 100 houses a month - very doable for some of the larger agencies. This is going to cause a huge backlash and I can't imagine trademe will be able to keep this rule without either 1) losing huge market share of real estate sales/listings or 2) making some form of concessions.

[clip]

^yep good writeup. One of my clients is the real estate institute of NZ (REINZ), i'm working here 20 hours a week at the moment - it's interesting to hear some of the goings ons in the industry

[artemis]

There is a REA point of view, but that is not the only view out there. Consider the buyers and sellers of properties. They want the best possible deal and hence the most eyeballs they can get. The cost to vendors of a TradeMe listing is minuscule in the scheme of things, and it would be good if REAs gave vendors an unbiased view of where the marketing dollars are best spent. Many no doubt do. Unlikely that would be the case with the REAs who unilaterally removed all their listings from TradeMe without consulting the vendors. REAs, already not NZ's most trusted, would be well advised to make sure their reputation is not tarnished by these actions.

[peat]

TMost realesatate companies have thier own very good web sites for marketing and their is already a great alternative realestate advertising wedsite available.

except the statistics show these alternatives attract almost no viewers. <5%

so TM does the logical thing and charge a realistic price for the value its adding. shareholders expect no less and vendors are clear on their preferences , its one of the ways TM goes for growth...

its all covered (and supported with links) in my previous posts ITT.

agree winner that this 2nd spike (down) is further evidence the pattern is not resulting in the expected movements but not absolute proof yet.

I have my parameters on this trade (also mentioned earlier) and will stick to them for now.

all you guys talking anecdotes , pffft ... the results are pretty much in line except for increased costs (as CIP mentioned) related to advertising and development.

revenue up 7% so business is okay , just costing more to sustain.

[Harvey Specter]

Agents get over $10k commission when they sell a house. The normally charge advertising costs. If you want to sell your home and you aren't willing to spend $160 to market it, then you are not serious. That is cheap for the amount of eyeballs TM can deliver.

What I don't understand is why the realestate agents let it get to this stage in the first place. They always had their own site so why would they push people to TM? They lost in the race for eyeballs and now they have to suffer the consequences (which is really nil since they just oncharge it to their customers).

[peat]

5521

Definitely rejection of $3.80 as shown by that hammer and subsequent long green day
kinda interesting that this should happen after the initial reaction to the result.

[peat]

7.6 cps dividend paid and price has now bounced back well over $4.00 with strong volume.

[sharer]

Do we think the recently floated Chinese behemoth AliBaba (in usa) might impact on TME in the near future ?

[warthog]

Thanks for the link Moosie. Interesting to get an Australian view of TME. Noted that one of their main concerns was the currency risk.

[macduffy]

Yes, interesting. But did the article somehow neglect to consider TUA's position in the on-line NZ car market? And thereby overestimate TME's dominant position?

[noodles]

Does anybody know the cause of the fall today?

[winner69]

Big boys playing games as usual. Tis a price to pay when the ASX is the lead listing unfortunately. Look at the charts and it's blatantly obvious.

Average volume on NZX is higher than ASX ... so who does lead the way

Didn't it go up the other day when some Aussies touted it big time ... maybe that buying over and make to normal transmission

Just a theory

[noodles]

I heard on the news mainfreight got dropped some some msci index. Perhaps the same thing happenned to trademe?

[winner69]

I heard on the news mainfreight got dropped some some msci index. Perhaps the same thing happenned to trademe?

TME not affected

Those who were were XRO in one and out of another / MFT out / and ATM and MELCA in

[modandm]

Does anybody know the cause of the fall today?

UBS downgraded the stock to a sell citing:

Daily browers down 6% yoy
Time on site down 41%
Real estate listings are now 65% of REINZ site with REINZ picking up audience
Market share vs seek has weakened
Unfavourable valuation comparisons vs eBay and other internet stock

Cutting FY15-16 EPS.

Looks like a good piece of research. And no I can't share it sorry.

[winner69]

long term chart looking distinctly sad

Some 30% of its high almost a year ago in what has been a pretty good market is not good

The big sell signal for longer term investor/traders was the death cross last October at 450 odd

An optimist would say currently range trading the 380/410 - heck might even stay in that range

Easy 7% for you there Moosie

[In4a$]

Already made 2.5% on it yesterday (thank god I sold!). Definitely still on my watchlist for a bounce ;)
Lucky you - I was holding out for $4 + today, freaken price dropped 0.20c on me.! :confused:

[BlackCross]

Gotta be quick unfortunately. Everything says were going lower... much lower. Considering a buy back in if it hits $3.40.

Except for MorningStar who have reiterated an accumulate this morning ($4.40).

[warthog]

Huge spike in volume today towards close. 1.5m off-market at close. (edit: plus another 0.25m after close).

Looks like a big holder getting out, but why we may never know.

[ratkin]

Posted in feb 20113
Interesting that many commentators and other so called experts are calling fairfax crazy for selling their best asset.

Would imagine though that fairfax would have a better idea of whats happening than outside "experts", after all they have made
half a billion on the deal

Trade me looking more and more fragile. Once site visits start falling (as they are) then interest from the public can drop quickly. The great unwashed spend all day on facebook now, barely give trade me a second thought.

[alistar_mid]

was gonna buy some, as although they are choking property right now they seem to have faith in their strats long term, and 2 yr low.. but on second thought after reading this thread i'll wait!

[winner69]

Trendline downwards starting to shatter, new lows being posted. Not looking pretty and waiting for the inevitable shake out of weak hands and tired holders around $3.40!

Disc - watching for a buyin. Catchee catchee fallee knifee!

Why not wait until the IPO price of 270

340 just sounds like a nice number .... any real reason for picking 340 moosie

[Okebw]

We had one of the directors of Watsons come in as a guest speaker in class last Friday.
Really nice guy. He indicated that there was an industry consensus that unless trade me dropped their property fees back to the previous level that agents would be avoiding it

[noodles]

We had one of the directors of Watsons come in as a guest speaker in class last Friday.
Really nice guy. He indicated that there was an industry consensus that unless trade me dropped their property fees back to the previous level that agents would be avoiding it
If you didn't know it already, it sends a clear message that real estate agents don't care about their vendors. How could they possibly consider avoiding advertising on trademe!

DISC: Not holding trademe. Look forward to a cheaper valuation in low 3's.

[noodles]

two side's to every story noodle's.
Real estate agents are not the only one's openly discussing the monopoly price rise's that TM have forced on their customer's for many years..... just had more media coverage.
Finally TM have tried to wave their big stick at another cartel that wont be bullied.
The real estate companies all have great website's that have excellent coverage and were in place well prior to TM coming along and I am really confident they will not yield to the TM big stick.
Are you saying that buyers have started visting the realestate.co.nz site more often since trademe raised fees? Because, lets face it, it is only the buyers that matter.

[clip]

I believe there will be some new offerings in the works between the real estate agencies/places like REINZ/re.co now that trademe have raised fees to try and poach the agents away from trademe listings. the agencies/agents are NOT happy about it

[okane]

Actually it is the real estate agents sticking up for their clients

You are hilarious.

[okane]

You are hilarious because real estate agents charge clients tens of thousands of dollars for their "services", and yet somehow it is supposed to be outrageous that Trademe charge REAs $159. The sheer gall of REAs is amusing though.

It is outrageous that in Waikato and Hawkes Bay real estate agents are lying to vendors by saying they cannot place advertising on Trademe at a discount when their true intentions are so transparently self-serving. Their boycott of Trademe is not in the interests of vendors it is to drive traffic to realestate.co.nz which they themselves own and can advertise on for free without competition from private sales.

It's all academic though as across the rest of the country Trademe has already won the battle. They will win in Waikato and Hawkes Bay too once REAs come to their senses and realise they cannot fight the network effect.

[clip]

realestate.co is a separately owned/run business not owned by real estate agents, they are however in frequent contact/work with the heads of bayleys, barfoots, harcourts and other big name agencies (there are around 7 that I know of)

[warthog]

You are hilarious because real estate agents charge clients tens of thousands of dollars for their "services", and yet somehow it is supposed to be outrageous that Trademe charge REAs $159. The sheer gall of REAs is amusing though.

It is outrageous that in Waikato and Hawkes Bay real estate agents are lying to vendors by saying they cannot place advertising on Trademe at a discount when their true intentions are so transparently self-serving. Their boycott of Trademe is not in the interests of vendors it is to drive traffic to realestate.co.nz which they themselves own and can advertise on for free without competition from private sales.

It's all academic though as across the rest of the country Trademe has already won the battle. They will win in Waikato and Hawkes Bay too once REAs come to their senses and realise they cannot fight the network effect.

Yes, it is a power-play.

The big RE firms in NZ are a cartel (in the hog's opinion).

This is the only way they can charge such outrageous fees where there is little or no incentive to get as good a price for the client as possible. It's just another day at the office and another punter's house to flick on for a silly-high fee.

And it will change. People have been selling their houses in increasing numbers thanks to Trademe, and if something comes up that competes effectively with Trademe on the basis of quality/price, then Trademe will either have to buy them or compete with them. Of late people will have noticed that Trademe has been beefing up their property services and ramping up advertising. That's competition.

realestate.co.nz is just an industry-owned* and supported attempt at halting/reversing the inevitable trend of owners of property having more power and threatening the cartel and their fat fees.

The comcom investigation against the cartel is ongoing but it is hard to imagine that they don't have some measure of cooperation against Trademe in their use of realestate.co.nz and their seemingly coordinated anti-Trademe actions. How much of this can be proved is another matter, though.

Ultimately, real-estate people are experts at lying through their teeth. The hog uses that expression deliberately. They lie while they smile at the punters and buyers, knowing full well that the vast majority of real-estate agents make far too much money for what they do.

It's time that changed. Trademe's fees are nothing compared with real-estate agent fees and the agents know it. They are fighting for power.

* Realestate.co.nz Ltd is a commercial company jointly owned by The Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) and Property Page (NZ) Ltd (PPL).

[warthog]

realestate.co is a separately owned/run business not owned by real estate agents, they are however in frequent contact/work with the heads of bayleys, barfoots, harcourts and other big name agencies (there are around 7 that I know of)

You didn't even check their website. Lazy!

http://www.realestate.co.nz/about/about-us
"Realestate.co.nz Ltd is a commercial company jointly owned by The Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) and Property Page (NZ) Ltd (PPL)."

PPL?
http://www.business.govt.nz/companies/app/ui/pages/companies/1028356/shareholdings

Recognise any names there?

[warthog]

your comments seem to be lacking substance.
The simple fact is it is trademe trying to dictate new rules and the realestate agents wont be bullied into paying it and if they are it will be passed on down to their clients......simple every day business practice.

Snapiti your post above casts serious doubt over your judgment.

From the hog's perspective, the real-estate agents are the bullies/cartel looking to desperately hold onto power by trying to put Trademe property out of business.

Do you seriously want industry-owned realestate.co.nz to have a dominant position in buying/selling property in NZ? What makes you think they wouldn't hike fees and squeeze every last cent out of the market?

[warthog]

I believe there will be some new offerings in the works between the real estate agencies/places like REINZ/re.co now that trademe have raised fees to try and poach the agents away from trademe listings. the agencies/agents are NOT happy about it

If the real-estate agents are not happy then per se, whatever it is that caused their discomfort is a good thing.

They don't look after their clients. Never have.

[RTM]

If the real-estate agents are not happy then per se, whatever it is that caused their discomfort is a good thing.

They don't look after their clients. Never have.

I have a few friends who are real estate agents. They are really nice folk.
However, need to always remember when dealing with them professionally, that they have their own interest at heart, first, second and third.

[warthog]

For a start realestate.co.nz had a dominant position in the market for many years prior to TM and they never showed the cartel like action of TM...... Proven fact number 1
Secondly I have been a client of TM for many years and they have proven to raise fee's when ever it suits them using their dominant market position to run the business like a cartel.... proven fact number 2
to even suggest TM has not used their dominant position to raise fee's MANY TIME'S would be utter rubbish.
But don't think I am saying the real estate companies are perfect either.

Media didn't seriously move online until after Trademe came along. The internet was just not that developed. The industry have always had a cartel-like (hog's opinion!) position in the tiny NZ market.

Even if one accepts that realestate.co.nz had any sort of dominance for any length of time the fact is that it is an industry-owned and supported service.

One would be hard pressed to find somebody outside of that industry to claim that real-estate agent fees became more competitive and/or real-estate agent service has improved during the same period.

[The BOWMAN]

The issue with TME is not real estate listing. It is the lack of innovation. For example, they've missed their opportunity to make an impact with selling brand new items due to the lack of value-add. Now other retailers are catching up and consumers are used to shop around multiple shopping Web sites. To make the matters worse, international sites are making it easier and cheaper to buy. Technology is no longer a key differentiator. And they don't have a strong strategy in their business direction. The only way forward seems to be acquisition and continous dilution of profit margin.

[warthog]

The issue with TME is not real estate listing. It is the lack of innovation. For example, they've missed their opportunity to make an impact with selling brand new items due to the lack of value-add. Now other retailers are catching up and consumers are used to shop around multiple shopping Web sites. To make the matters worse, international sites are making it easier and cheaper to buy. Technology is no longer a key differentiator. And they don't have a strong strategy in their business direction. The only way forward seems to be acquisition and continous dilution of profit margin.

True, and you will see this with TME equivalents around the world.

One could almost be forgiven for saying that, for a period after the original founders of a company depart (from day-to-day running of a business), there is a stage where the business has little direction and stops taking risks (innovation). Over time even these businesses slowly wake up and realise that they need a kick in the proverbial and get the right people in place to rejuvenate the company.

Ebay, Apple, HP and others for example.

[warthog]

nor have the real estate agents put their general fee's up 350% in recent year's despite selling 98% of the market as a collective

Comparing absolute (not relative) fees, and considering how crucial the product/service is as a component of the selling process, which of Trademe and the real-estate agents are charging far in excess of the value of their service?

If you believe this to be Trademe, then we are on different planets.

Note that not all real-estate agents are hugely overpaid.

Just 99.99% of them.

BTW plural does not require an apostrophe, so "fees" rather than "fee's" and "years" not "year's".

[Jay]

nor have the real estate agents put their general fee's up 350% in recent year's despite selling 98% of the market as a collective

Haven't had to, the house prices have gone up instead. After all their commision is mainly % based :)

[warthog]

nor have the real estate agents put their general fee's up 350% in recent year's despite selling 98% of the market as a collective

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/10090977/Estate-agent-censured-for-outbidding-client

$2k "fine", increased on appeal to $4k.

How about these figured increase 100-fold. Then they might take them seriously.

No? Why not? If they follow the rules, no fine.

[warthog]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/property/news/article.cfm?c_id=8&objectid=11265449

Bully agent fined $2000 and Bayleys $1500.

For pressuring a widow into accepting $100k less for a property.

But they are all good people, right?

[Mista_Trix]

Ex-boss to take on Trade Me;
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/10120262/Ex-boss-to-take-on-Trade-Me

[modandm]

Hi everyone,

Just wanted to say I am quite interested in TME, and have begun accumulating what should grow out to be a decent position for me. It's the only NZ stock I own except AIR.

My investment case in brief is:

The company is of fantastic quality - I can't stress this enough. Its probably a better business than even AIA (i.e unregulated monopoly position, pricing power, high returns, cash flow etc). However its de-rated from c.25x PE to c. 17x PE as investors have reacted negatively to rising investment, which is slowing earnings growth. I see this reaction as short-termist and myopic.

I believe that the company can return to solid (but not spectacular), rates of earnings growth, as compounding revenue growth occurs through the next few years, and costs rise at a lower rate. I think the issue with property is a storm in a teacup and that in three years time will all be forgotten, yes in the short term they have made concessions - big deal. TME will continue to innovate or simply copy offshore peers as they have been (with mixed success), and remain very dominant. They can also grow by acquisition as they have done with good success in the past. This is a secular growth industry and one where NZ trails other countries and will continue to catch up. As a result of improving growth (back to say 7-10% p.a), the valuation multiple should increase back towards 20x PE. If we use a figure of say 25c earnings for FY17 which I feel is conservative the stock is worth $5 per share, with dividends taking the total return to about 60% up from $3.50 where we are at today.

I'll go into more detail about some of my major assumptions in a later post.

Be great to hear some investment thoughts - and not oh the website is so expensive now, or my dad doesn't sell on it anymore. Also be interested to know who else is on-board so to speak.

mod

[winner69]

Real Estate agent told me this morning that realestate.co.nz is now getting as many page views as trademe .....she reckon was as low as 20% last year so getting to 50% of views is pretty good

Still tells vendors to put the house on trademe as well even though its a few hundred bucks extra

[okane]

Real Estate agent told me this morning that realestate.co.nz is now getting as many page views as trademe

First lesson in this biz is never believe what real estate agents say.

[RGR367]

First lesson in this biz is never believe what real estate agents say.

I just look around in my office for some feedback on this stock. Before, most of my office mates (about 40 plus) would have one of their computer screens dedicated on TradeMe for some buying/selling actions everyday. Now, lucky for me to see 5 screens on it the whole day. I'm still holding/accumulating the shares though.

[macduffy]

Its probably a better business than even AIA

Really?

TME's business model is open to copying/bettering as technology changes. It'll be a long time before anyone replicates AIA's position as the premier gateway to NZ.

[Harvey Specter]

Really?

TME's business model is open to copying/bettering as technology changes. It'll be a long time before anyone replicates AIA's position as the premier gateway to NZ.you can copy the website but their strength is in the size of their customer base.

[Jay]

True H S

I see wheedle is closing down - did not last long after a few splutters at the start
When there is nothing really else like TM in NZ, people have joined, numbers have grown.
IMHO, Harder to get them to change, a bit of a catch 22 - not enough buyers/sellers so I won't bother unless there is some real point of difference.

[noodles]

Mod,

I recommend listening to the half year analyst briefing(if you haven't already)
http://www.media-server.com/m/p/i4pdjxb4

noodles

[Goldstein]

The issue with TME is not real estate listing. It is the lack of innovation.

I think also it is the size of the trader base in NZ willing to use TME. For instance I recently needed to upgrade my laptop's SSD hard drive. It's a few years old and I couldn't get what I wanted retail. I found exactly what I wanted on Ebay with a Chinese guy running a business in China selling components. He actually got in touch with me and apologised the shipping was so slow. I was really impressed. The component arrived and worked fine and only cost me $100 US.

ANyway, Ebay has a lot of international traders using it as a market portal, wheras TME just offers the NZ market. Maybe they need to think a bit more outside NZ.

[modandm]

the competitive advantage, moat, or barrier to entry that exists for trademe is called the network effect and its powerful. Wheedle was well backed, $10m down the drain.

As to eBay/Amazon - that's fine and I expect more and more people will use the international sites to buy things. That doesn't mean TradeMe classifieds can't continue to grow at a slow rate (which is all I expect - in fact I assume just 1% revenue growth per year for classifieds). Your not likely to want to pay shipping on lower value items, not are you likely to order a lawnmower or buy 2nd hand farm bike from China. As to the number of desktop users - the majority of site visits are now on mobile/tablet, which partly explains the falling time on site (per average visit). The classifieds business is mature - we all know that already..

[winner69]

Below 350 and nearly the price it was a few months after the IPO

Surely it cant go down to the IPO price of 270 (first day was nearly 300)

Seems to have been a long steady ride up to 520 and just as long steady ride down to 345

Doesn't seem to be any reason to say it has stopped going down yet .....but I'll keep watching in case

[sharer]

After failing to get a useful ipo allocation, i found it hard to build a holding in TME, and not long ago changed tack to reduce instead of build. Much later than i should have, it was just too seductive dreaming about the hitech future. However after again reading recent discussions above, realized i now share the negative outlook, (in part confirmed by news this week of their backdown on real-estate marketing confirming imho as per some of the critics above), i've now decided to dump it while my overall numbers are still positive. Phaedrian principles still apply ! Some things get to a stage where i feel they are more trouble than they are worth.

I should like to thank many of the contributors to this discussion thread who have helped me to understand this stock.
I can even see a possibility of buying back in again, & i'm already trying to imagine what a new entry trigger price might be ...

[winner69]

Simple chart below says it all about TME in its time since listing

Seems to support everything that modandm and rgr367 have recently said about the company

[modandm]

Simple chart below says it all about TME in its time since listing

Seems to support everything that modandm and rgr367 have recently said about the company

I think you guys have got me wrong. I am BUYING while people like sharer capitulate to what I believe a transitory and short term setbacks.

The market is myopic, I am taking advantage of that and getting into a high quality, predictable, steady growth, high yield, low debt, high margin, high free cash flow, well managed company at what I think is an attractive valuation. I think they have numerous growth opportunities to pursue including price comparison, and add on services to existing businesses. On top of that its existing businesses are under penetrated relative to Australia and the UK, while continued growth of the internet/smartphones will support secular GDP+ growth.

I don't use charts to make investment decisions, and I invest with a 5 year view.

[modandm]

oh and just to add, in research related news.

UBS upgraded Trademe from sell to hold with a $3.60 price target. This was the broker who sent the shares from 4.00 to 3.50 a few months ago with a sell note.

I get the feeling market sentiment for the stock has bottomed out (making for the ideal entry point). Will be interesting how the market reacts to full year results in a few weeks. I think expectations are low, but comments regarding outlook and future strategy will be closely watched. I would be cautious if they keep pouring $ into new goods, where they seem to be gaining little traction..

lets see

[Leftfield]

I've just been down sizing and selling stuff via Trade Me. Must say I'm not impressed with many aspects of their service. They seem more interested in milking max dollars rather than providing good service. Max dollars may be good for share holders in the short term, but long term??

[Balance]

I've just been down sizing and selling stuff via Trade Me. Must say I'm not impressed with many aspects of their service. They seem more interested in milking max dollars rather than providing good service. Max dollars may be good for share holders in the short term, but long term??

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/trade-me-property-changes-its-pricing-model-again-md-160039

The real estate debacle shows TM's short term focus backfiring badly. Potentially it has turned a dominant market position into a losing one by completely misreading its target audience and competitor.

[winner69]

I think you guys have got me wrong. I am BUYING while people like sharer capitulate to what I believe a transitory and short term setbacks.

The market is myopic, I am taking advantage of that and getting into a high quality, predictable, steady growth, high yield, low debt, high margin, high free cash flow, well managed company at what I think is an attractive valuation. I think they have numerous growth opportunities to pursue including price comparison, and add on services to existing businesses. On top of that its existing businesses are under penetrated relative to Australia and the UK, while continued growth of the internet/smartphones will support secular GDP+ growth.

I don't use charts to make investment decisions, and I invest with a 5 year view.

I did realise that you and rgr were keen on Trademe - just that some of the comments,particularly rgr ones, seemed to highlight the reasons not to buy. It had me puzzled

[RGR367]

I did realise that you and rgr were keen on Trademe - just that some of the comments,particularly rgr ones, seemed to highlight the reasons not to buy. It had me puzzled

My comments were just observations from my work place why TME could be going down. Though it could be perceived as a negative one, it was actually my chance to start buying TME at that time. Never had TME before on my portfolio and since I don't consider it as a "trading stock", and so just like modandm, I'll be buying more (the cheaper, the better of course) and keep it for the long term. Just following my "feel" with this stock.

[Balance]

Looks like the motor vehicle industry is gearing up to do a real estate equivalent on Trade Me next.

Another red flag.

[Mista_Trix]

I do a LOT of trading with TradeMe, I receive about 30-50 emails a day with 'hits' that I've set up.

I love buying stuff off it, I think its fantastic. BUT, every time I go to sell something, the fees kick in and I think - why the hell would anyone sell anything on here, the fees are ridiculous.
I sold some dive gear a couple of months ago, got about $1350 for it, all of a sudden my TradeMe account was in the red by about $200.

I'm happy to buy stuff, why anyone would sell stuff on there is beyond me - no other option I guess, but I think they've gone too far with their fees.

[see weed]

Agree fully with last three postings. Give me the old Trade & Exchange any day. Go view the article and buy it. Hopefully a T&E type website will start up one day, with fairer fees.

[Jaa]

Agreed. Started using realestate.co.nz this past week as well, much better in comparison and has more listings in my area (Manawatu) than TM. Also cheaper rentals amazingly!

Went to list a house for rent for 3 months the other day on TM, couldn't believe the price.... $149!! Put me off completely, not worth the hassle, costs and risks involved. They are getting to greedy when it comes to their property and vehicles categories.

Their general auctions to sell things lying around the house still works well.

[modandm]

I love buying stuff off it, I think its fantastic.

Best comment, and actually the answer to your own question. Why would you sell using it? Because it will find a buyer for you, and yes it charges a fee for this service, at a level which the market will bear.

The fees are lower than international sites such as eBay. GET OVER IT. How else are you going to sell your stuff...

I'm quite tired of various threads becoming consumer advocacy tirade's. This is a website for people to make money by investing.

[Balance]

Best comment, and actually the answer to your own question. Why would you sell using it? Because it will find a buyer for you, and yes it charges a fee for this service, at a level which the market will bear.

The fees are lower than international sites such as eBay. GET OVER IT. How else are you going to sell your stuff...

I'm quite tired of various threads becoming consumer advocacy tirade's. This is a website for people to make money by investing.

Haha - very true.

Nevertheless, TradeMe business model now has a problem. Where is growth in profits coming to come from?

[modandm]

Why? Because it gives a good view of the market and how people treat and see TM. If people aren't buying and selling items on the sute, please enlighten me WHY we WOULDN'T want to know this crucial information (it is a business that needs cashflows last I checked!)

PSYCH and and ECON 101 mate.

YOU get over it.

(and please disclose that you are active in buying TM stock as well when saying this stuff please) :)

Haha, okay - believe me I wouldn't bother, and it would be a violation of my ethical commitment to attempt to ramp the stock.

I am aware of the 'disenchantment' some posters feel about the classifieds business, I would just hope posters consider what might be interesting to others in the context of an investment in the company, rather than general chit-chat and beat ups.

As to why I believe the company can return to growth, its never stopped growing. Last year the company grew revenue 15%. This year its likely only 8% topline, but profit growth will be 0%. The reason for that is increased investment/marketing which I think is supportive of long term ambitions.

e-commerce is a secular growth area of the economy, I see it continuing to take share from bricks and mortar in NZ. TradeMe is currently weak in the new goods area which is the fastest growing. They have invested in this area so far with modest results. My investment case is built on the general items business growing at just 1% p.a topline which I think is conservative.

The faster growing area is classifieds - property, motor, and jobs. A combination of volume and yield (price hikes), should support a tidy growth rate here, and i expect further innovation or acquisitions. in the past they have done this successfully with the likes of batch rentals, motorweb for car dealers, and lifedirect. I believe there is opportunity for price comparison services, as well as others we haven't even thought of yet. TradeMe is the natural buyer for any successful NZ tech start-up aimed at NZ consumer.

Onto my assumptions and valuation:

As above general items revenue growth of 1% next 5 years.
Revenue growth of the classifieds business at 15% over the next 2 years, then 10%. Other revenue growth at 10%p.a
Costs overall I see going up 30% this year (cause of profit growth slowdown), but after this I model 10%, 9%, 7%, 7%.
Depreciation and amortization I model 35% increase this year, tracking down to 10% growth by FY17, this somewhat factors in further acquisitions.

The result of this is net profit growth of -0.6% this year, then 7.4%, 9.4%, 7.5%, 7.7% over the next few years.

FY18 eps of 26.7c - put that on a forward multiple of 20x you get $5.34 or 18x, $4.81. Add dividends with modest growth = between 60% and 75% total return, over 3 years.
Given the strong balance sheet, high margins, low capital intensity, monopoly position, and cash conversion I think it warrants these multiples if growth can be sustained at these rates.

Attractive to me, I think its low risk, good reward. If they make more acquisitions, could be even better. They could also increase leverage (from a low starting point), and increase ROE and capital returns which would further boost total return.

As always DYOR - mod

[noodles]

FY18 eps of 26.7c - put that on a forward multiple of 20x you get $5.34 or 18x, $4.81.
mod, Thanks for taking the time to lay out your assumptions and valuation. Key to the valuation is the "20x" earnings. I wonder if this is on the high side?. EBAY is on a FY15 pe of 19.5. You could argue that EBAY deserves a higher pe given it is not constrained to the NZ market and has a stronger brand.

[modandm]

mod, Thanks for taking the time to lay out your assumptions and valuation. Key to the valuation is the "20x" earnings. I wonder if this is on the high side?. EBAY is on a FY15 pe of 19.5. You could argue that EBAY deserves a higher pe given it is not constrained to the NZ market and has a stronger brand.

It's a fair point you make.

You could argue that eBay is structurally disadvantaged to Amazon, Paypal is vulnerable to competition, and that eBay is the slow growth 'General items' part of TME, not the high growth Carsales.com, or Zoopla which trades at even higher multiples.

Also I would argue NZ companies should trade at a premium to US ones, given our favorable dividend tax policy. The fact AIA trades at near 30x and SKC at 16-18x supports TME at 18-20x, and in the past its been as high as 25x. Don't get me started on the mad valuations of XRO, and the healthcare sector..



Thanks for following up Mod :)

:) no worries moosie

[Mista_Trix]

... This is a website for people to make money by investing.

Exactly, and where is that growth going to come from if they've already maxed out their fees. When they wiggled with them, as a consumer of the service (sorry I know I'm not allowed to talk about it, but its all valid) I made a decision to bother less with the little stuff that I used to put up - tops, t-shirts, shorts etc, because the payoff just wasn't there anymore compared to what it was after the fee hike. I made a concious decision to nolonger list smaller items and just take them to the opshop instead - better use of my time. How many others I wonder made this same type of change in their behaviour in relation to the site??

As a side comment, there are also a lot more knock off items than before, and TradeMe seems to police these items less than they used to, so that's a bit of a worry as well.

All this aside, I think its got a dominant market position, and will continue to exist in the same space it has in the past, but has clearly run out of growth - unless it buys up more businesses - I will try and buy at the bottom for a Div hold.

[Balance]

Latest real estate listings for Auckland :

TradeMe - 8,418

Realestate.co.nz- 9,432

Losing ground and showing no sign of regaining.

[BlackCross]

Ebay seems to have allowed them almost free reign in NZ. Maybe that will change someday?

As for the site? Expensive and not enough control over some of the numpties that use it. Just look at 'walters' feedback. http://www.trademe.co.nz/Members/Feedback.aspx?member=1581467
Why are people like that allowed to even log on beats me.

[winner69]

Latest real estate listings for Auckland :

TradeMe - 8,418

Realestate.co.nz- 9,432

Losing ground and showing no sign of regaining.

Billy idol and britney spears tee shirts . Must have had a change if heart

[Balance]

Ebay seems to have allowed them almost free reign in NZ. Maybe that will change someday?

As for the site? Expensive and not enough control over some of the numpties that use it. Just look at 'walters' feedback. http://www.trademe.co.nz/Members/Feedback.aspx?member=1581467
Why are people like that allowed to even log on beats me.

Trade Me is like NZX - it's all about profits.

Bugger the members and the goods/services etc bought and sold.

Short term it works but longer term, participants are continuously looking for an alternative and will actively support the alternatives if they stack up.

[modandm]

oh my bleading heart. There have been several competitors, ebay, telecom's ferrit, some other one's I can't remember, and then wheedle or whatever.

This is a business - just like AIA, SKC, NZX, XRO, any of them - they charge what they can! Trademe has a fantastic business. If that upsets you too bad.

[Jaa]

Ebay seems to have allowed them almost free reign in NZ. Maybe that will change someday?

As for the site? Expensive and not enough control over some of the numpties that use it. Just look at 'walters' feedback. http://www.trademe.co.nz/Members/Feedback.aspx?member=1581467
Why are people like that allowed to even log on beats me.

I've always assumed eBay and Trademe have a tacit do not compete agreement covering NZ & Aus.

Trademe should have expanded into Australia while they were owned by Fairfax, they had the technology and Fairfax the marketing muscle and the distribution. Low entry cost with a potential very high return.

They should have backed themselves rather than been intimated by any response by eBay to set up in NZ.

[Balance]

oh my bleading heart. There have been several competitors, ebay, telecom's ferrit, some other one's I can't remember, and then wheedle or whatever.

This is a business - just like AIA, SKC, NZX, XRO, any of them - they charge what they can! Trademe has a fantastic business. If that upsets you too bad.

You miss the point.

TME may have in your view a fantastic business - what has been shown with its real estate listings business however is that it cannot charge what it can. It has had to bring its fees back into line but has lost market share which it is unlikely to regain.

One thing about a good business is that you do not bugger it up by overcharging.

NZX did the same thing a number of years back - trying to increase its listing fees but backed down real quick after a few of the bog companies threatened action.

Does not upset me one iota - but not good for TME shareholders.

[winner69]

Whatever people think Trade Me a real money making machine

$80m profit on turnover of $180m is pretty good

[modandm]

Quick take

Revenues up 10%, flat in general items (as per my assumptions). EBITDA +4.3%, NPAT up 1.9% in a tough year when expenses are rising fast.

Forecast for double digit revenue growth, but subdued EBITDA growth (I read as 5-7%) is a little weak, but cash generation is rising better than that.

Overall I am quite satisfied and will add today. Will come back with more detailed analysis in a few weeks.

[modandm]

To put this 'bad' result and TME's troubles (as some imagine) in perspective - SKC which trades at near the same multiple despite carrying much more debt and being far more capital intensive reported the following recently:

The casino company's annual results posted to the NZX this morning reported a 4.8 per cent decline in revenue, to $821.5 million, and a 22.6 per cent drop in net profits after tax, to $98.5m

The stock went up!

[warthog]

TME have taken a few costs this last year, but as winner points out, underlying their business is a cash-generating machine.

[McGyro]

No question TME is a good money making machine.
The problem with TME appears to be what they do with the money that they make.
From a position of absolute power and everyones darling several years ago, they have become a hated necessity like Telecom used to be.
Then they started simultaneously jacking up rates and reducing service quality in order to make more money which was wasted on silly ventures; not even passed on to shareholders.
This poor direction suggests a fundamental problem with the board.
Previously eBay wouldnt have been seriously interested in expanding to NZ probably because of the strength and efficiency of the competition. Is this still the case?
I'll be selling TME on the next rise if the board doesnt get its act together and make itself more desirable to customers and shareholders alike.

[modandm]

No question TME is a good money making machine.
The problem with TME appears to be what they do with the money that they make.
From a position of absolute power and everyones darling several years ago, they have become a hated necessity like Telecom used to be.
Then they started simultaneously jacking up rates and reducing service quality in order to make more money which was wasted on silly ventures; not even passed on to shareholders.
This poor direction suggests a fundamental problem with the board.
Previously eBay wouldnt have been seriously interested in expanding to NZ probably because of the strength and efficiency of the competition. Is this still the case?
I'll be selling TME on the next rise if the board doesnt get its act together and make itself more desirable to customers and shareholders alike.

Where do you come up with this?

1 they are not hated - otherwise they wouldn't post 10% revenue growth
2 they haven't reduced service quality - in fact 26% expense growth points to rising investment to improve the website apps and general customer experience
3 what silly ventures? they are paying a healthy dividend to shareholders you idiot!
4 the board is excellent and investing for the long term, as opposed to maximizing short term results - i commend that
5 eBay pulled out, Wheedle failed - there is no emerging threat

Please sell because you are clueless and don't appreciate the company you own. Your beyond belief.

[tzbang]

I feel like TM will slowly turn into the YellowPages; getting to a point where everyone hates them but continue to use them because everyone uses them.. until they stop and then it's all over. TM's attitude is similar to when YellowPages were at the top of their game; charging an arm or a leg for a crappy advertisement with the price justification based purely on viewer numbers.

That said, I think the reason why many challengers to TM have failed is that they rely solely on cheaper fees to lure people over. A lot of people on TM (like myself) don't like the fees - but don't really care. Most of the stuff I sell on TM I just want to get rid of, maximising dollars isn't the priority - getting that old couch out of my house is. So we continue to put up with the fees.

[modandm]

picked up just over 14k thanks.

When broker upgrades start coming through next week I will let you know - :)

I'm here for the long haul, what the shares do in the next month means little to me - markets are inefficient and short-sighted.

To invest successfully you have to be prepared to go against the crowd, nobody wanted AIR shares 2 years ago either... its an airline!

[Hoop]

This TME market has been in a long term down trending price channel for 15 months and it is still continuing...maybe it should be called a long sighted market..eh?.......but...wait....there are faint signs something positive may be happening with the TME market attempting a double bottom pattern...A rise above 3.65 will help to confirm if this is true....

[warthog]

Touched $3.65 a minute ago.

Where to from here Hoop?

Resistance becomes support?

[Hoop]

Touched $3.65 a minute ago.

Where to from here Hoop?

Resistance becomes support?

Yeah R becomes S once above $3.65...and also forms a higher high...At the moment though TME is still trendless...However a number of buy signals got triggered today..... so the chances of the TME price breaking the $3.65 resistance and help create a short term uptrend is very good..
A quick look at the chart shows the TA target price if the breakout occurs would be around the $3.85/ $3.90ish area

[warthog]

R now S. Next R around $4.10.

Source for buy signals getting triggered yesterday?

[duncan22]

Latest real estate listings for Auckland :

TradeMe - 8,418

Realestate.co.nz- 9,432

Losing ground and showing no sign of regaining.

Update a month later - not losing ground but not gaining either:

TradeMe - 8,290
Realestate.co.nz- 9,248

[winner69]

Still watching

TME struggles to get above 360/370 these days. I feel the TME price will at best be trend less for some time and hang around the current mark mainly supported by the dividend. That dividend is not that great really is it.

Wouldn't take too much for sentiment to change an that downtrend could continue - maybe down to 300/325

One would hope that all those extra people and added costs are. Going to deliver growth else things could get a bit ugly.

I might hunt around for a proxy to get into the ASM just to hear what Jon says about progress. And a chance to vote against David.

Macs Bar quite a nice place to go to on a fine day. Meeting could be a hoot.

[Beagle]

Bugger all growth, consensus 2015 EPS by 11 analysts of 20.42 cents puts them on a 2015 PE of 17.7. Its been in a steady decline since June 2013 when the market has been strong, looks like a great way to tear up money to me investing in this obviously mature stock.

[bunter]

(20/8/14) Quick take

Revenues up 10%, flat in general items (as per my assumptions). EBITDA +4.3%, NPAT up 1.9% in a tough year when expenses are rising fast.

Forecast for double digit revenue growth, but subdued EBITDA growth (I read as 5-7%) is a little weak, but cash generation is rising better than that.

Will come back with more detailed analysis in a few weeks.

Mod, would be interested to hear your thoughts on the outlook and fundamental value. My crude model says it's worth 3.71.

[modandm]

Mod, would be interested to hear your thoughts on the outlook and fundamental value. My crude model says it's worth 3.71.

Hi bunter. No big changes to my assumptions below (from early August) - update to valuation given better FY14 result than expected, and to put forward multiple of 18x rather than 20x. I do think it could trade up (no pun intended) to 20x, but lets be conservative. My model is very crude here, and I think I am underestimating costs this year, so take a pinch of salt.

The investment case is simple really, this company can grow top line nicely, but is currently ramping investments and costs up. When this slows (next year), operating leverage comes in and earnings accelerate.

General items revenue growth of 1% next 5 years.
Revenue growth of the classifieds business at 15% over the next 2 years, then 10%. Other revenue growth at 10%p.a
Costs overall I see going up 10%, 9%, 7%, 7%.
Depreciation and amortization I model up 25%, 15%, 10%, 10% this somewhat factors in further acquisitions.
Interest income +10% then 5%pa (small numbers)
Interest expense declining 5%pa (small numbers)

The result of this is eps growth of 8.2%, 10%, 7.7% and 7.9% over the next few years (accounting for stock issuance).

FY18 eps of 27.8c - put that on a forward multiple of 18x, $5.01. Add dividends with modest growth = 60% total return, over 3 years. That's about 17%p.a from $3.65.

Given the strong balance sheet, high margins, low capital intensity, monopoly position, and cash conversion I think it warrants these multiples if growth can be sustained at these rates.

Attractive to me, I think its low risk, good reward. If they make more acquisitions, could be even better. They could also increase leverage (from a low starting point), and increase ROE and capital returns which would further boost total return.

What's my current valuation? Or what would I sell at today? About $4.50. At that price, based on my estimates total return per year to my base case would be 'just' 10%, and I think I can do better (don't we all)...

A final thought - this stock is best suited to the patient investor, its a compounder, not an exciting cyclical or high growth/high risk stock.

-Mod

[Baa_Baa]

The price chart, fwiw, is encouraging with the recent breakout from med-long term trendline resistance, setting up for the test of horizontal resistance around $375 .. probably test that today.

A breakout (up) would help confidence that a new uptrend has begun. Respect of resistance sees the price stuck in a horizontal channel between $340 and $375.

[The BOWMAN]

The staleness of TradeMe is mind boggling for an Online business.

[bunter]

Thanks very much mod. I'd assumed 7% growth, based on recent performance. With your (approx) 9% growth, I'm at 4.09 'fair value'.
Might hold for a bit and see if the recent recovery comes to anything - my chart shows a recent recovery in price and sentiment.

[warthog]

The staleness of TradeMe is mind boggling for an Online business.

Selling second-hand in NZ, which alternative do you prefer?

[The BOWMAN]

Selling second-hand in NZ, which alternative do you prefer?

Surely you know it is not just a second-hand goods company. They fail to leverage their assets, the user base and information, to expand into new territories. Their mobile strategy is close to none. Their businesses are totally isolated (job, goods, house, car, travel, etc) instead of being an integrated eco-system. Purchasing (especially new product) is often done via "recommendation" instead of "searching". Yet they have no successful social components. Does trademe integrate with facebook? As a result, their push into the new goods market is a total failure. And what about integrating with some offline business as well? The O2O (Online to Offline) business such as Uber is a huge success overseas. And they would be in a very good position to implement the P2P private funding business model. Mobile has brought revolutionary changes to people doing business today, online or not. The company started with an idea that was not visionary. All they had was the luck of timing. The company never had a visionary person. They've peaked and their business will be slowly eroding away as time goes by. A dying business.

[warthog]

Surely you know it is not just a second-hand goods company. They fail to leverage their assets, the user base and information, to expand into new territories. Their mobile strategy is close to none. Their businesses are totally isolated (job, goods, house, car, travel, etc) instead of being an integrated eco-system. Purchasing (especially new product) is often done via "recommendation" instead of "searching". Yet they have no successful social components. Does trademe integrate with facebook? As a result, their push into the new goods market is a total failure. And what about integrating with some offline business as well? The O2O (Online to Offline) business such as Uber is a huge success overseas. And they would be in a very good position to implement the P2P private funding business model. Mobile has brought revolutionary changes to people doing business today, online or not. The company started with an idea that was not visionary. All they had was the luck of timing. The company never had a visionary person. They've peaked and their business will be slowly eroding away as time goes by. A dying business.

Some interesting perspectives. Thanks for taking the time to put them out there.

So which alternative do you prefer?

[tim23]

Gee Bowman - interesting arguments have you ever owned this share?

[winner69]

Probably Colmar Brunton asked The Bowman to participate in this poll about home grown brands
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11348517

Quote: TradeMe took a big drop in the rankings, falling nine places to equal 14th in the space of 12 months, prompting Ireland to ponder "is it still the brand of the people?"

Bowman will probably say NO to that question

Maybe Trade Me is on that slow journey to being irrelevant ....and probably the shareprice will follow ....unless somebody steps up to reinvigorate it

[Baa_Baa]

TME put in an impressive breakout on Fri 17th taking out the longer term resistance trendline, the 90EMA and 14EMA.

On Monday this week and for the remainder of the week, buying support piled in, lifting the price to a very significant resistance point being the 61.8% fib around $3.85 of the entire downtrend from May 2013 - and breaking out of range-bound trading since May this year. It also crossed, backtested and closed above my fav weekly indicator, the 14EMA.

The price retreated just a bit lower to close the week at a promising $3.82 up from $3.45 only 2-3 weeks ago.

TME has endured a sustained period of selling pressure since May 2013, but now the price has broken out of that downward channel. Check out the weekly chart especially.

[The BOWMAN]

Sorry, haven't been checking the Forum for a few days. it was the long weekend after all. Yes, I did own TradeMe shares, right from the IPO. At the time of IPO, people are saying that there is no growth left in this company. I wasn't bothered by it. What I saw was a business in NZ that has the largest customer base and a business that has the most active customers who will pay a visit everyday. I believe TME has a very strong marketing advantage to explore new opportunities without even the need to spend much. But it then becomes clear that the company lacks the vision and execution to grow and I dumped all my shares at around $4.50 mark long time ago. It still has the same advantage although I believe the active customers are slowly dowelling. If someone can lead this company to do something better than hiking the fees, I will get back in.
In the meantime, there is no alternative investing opportunities in the same category in NZX. I'll recommend have a look at Alibaba and JD at the US market.

[modandm]

Thanks very much mod. I'd assumed 7% growth, based on recent performance. With your (approx) 9% growth, I'm at 4.09 'fair value'.
Might hold for a bit and see if the recent recovery comes to anything - my chart shows a recent recovery in price and sentiment.

what valuation method are you using - would be good if you could actually explain.

re bowman and others - haha there seem to be a general angst about the company. Yes its slow growth, but it can improve in the next few years to high single or low double digit which is good when the company is paying a nice dividend and has minimal debt. It's a fantastic cash generator, and theres no sign of revenue turning negative. Plus there is option value if they can succeed with new areas of growth.

Outside AIR this is my top pick in NZ, and one I would comfortably hold for the next 5 years without any concern.

Comments at the AGM today confirmed things are playing out inline with my investment case :)

[bunter]

what valuation method are you using
Quick, dirty, homemade, and not one I'm proud of.

It takes a company's current dividend, and applies a 'growth factor'. I guess that, looking at recent growth and how I feel about the sector, the management, the weather, etc.
Then looks at what percentage of the company is paid for by dividends after ten years.
Dividends are after tax, and in today's dollars using a discount rate of 5%.

A company that pays for 50% of itself (arbitrary figure) after ten years, via dividends, is 'fairly priced'.

It's no good for 'growth stocks' (like Apple and Xero), but I'm not interested in those for now.
For all its faults though it's worked well for me so far - see list below.

[duncan22]

Update a month later - not losing ground but not gaining either:

TradeMe - 8,290
Realestate.co.nz- 9,248

Update 2 months later... Auckland Listings:

TradeMe - 9,493 (+1,203)
Realestate.co.nz- 10,450 (+1,202)

[RGR367]

Trademe is a fairly mature business. Where will the revenue growth come from? There is a limit to the amount of product development they can achieve, and they can't move into another country. Maybe they will crank up auction fees? I guess you will need to hold shares as a regular user to offset the inevitable increases in fees! I might be wrong, but I'll be happy to steer clear of this one. I bet mum & dad investors will flock to the brand though.

Auction fees? Exactly why another business is out there now to compete with TME. http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/new-website-takes-trade-me-marine-jw-p-166442

[winner69]

Just as things were looking perky ahead TME share price is packing a sad. Down to 350 odd after being over 400 a few weeks ago

What's up

[Baa_Baa]

Just as things were looking perky ahead TME share price is packing a sad. Down to 350 odd after being over 400 a few weeks ago

What's up

There's a truth! Some sort of capitulation by the looks of it IMO. But I don't own this to sell it, so the current slump is a trigger to accumulate, for moi anyway. On top of that, volume was only half of its MA, so I figure it's a late stage last gasp slump.

The weekly chart:
6587
(the falling knife)

For me it's a tad early to be buying, as I don't usually unduly risk capital at the buy, but this time :ohmy: I'm in now for more at these prices, and lower if necessary. TME's not going out of business as far as I can tell, despite some misgivings expressed here. Downside risk now is .09 to major support at 3.4 ... if that fails I'm cannon fodder on the capital, but doubled up on the Divi.

But it's still better than working, and ... DYOR of course.

Cheers, BAA

[alliswell]

Auction fees? Exactly why another business is out there now to compete with TME. http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/new-website-takes-trade-me-marine-jw-p-166442

Hi RGR367,(and you all)

There have been a number of other sites wanting to compete with TME, Sella for one had no fee's at all,I actually listed my goods on there cheaper than TM but after 6-7 months didnt sell a single one, otehr sites may have advantages, with cheap or no fee's etc,...but what they dont have is the "traffic"...though in time they may get that,but in IMO it maybe be years

[RGR367]

Hi RGR367,(and you all)

There have been a number of other sites wanting to compete with TME, Sella for one had no fee's at all,I actually listed my goods on there cheaper than TM but after 6-7 months didnt sell a single one, otehr sites may have advantages, with cheap or no fee's etc,...but what they dont have is the "traffic"...though in time they may get that,but in IMO it maybe be years

Yeah, and that's why we have to keep an eye on any competing unit or this so called new "niche sort of TME". But though I'm starting to accummulate its shares we should not stop scrutinizing its fees as we see fit. May it end well for you too alliswell :)

[Baa_Baa]

Morningstar 11/12 rating ACCUMULATE valuation: $4.00

[warthog]

Morningstar 11/12 rating ACCUMULATE valuation: $4.00

Buyers $3.51 Sellers $3.65 - $0.14 spread.

That's a difference of opinion.

[Baa_Baa]

Trademe is working on and rolling out new user interfaces, on mobile, tablets and recently on the main website. As a NZ mom & pop sales channel it's still easily the goto site and that doesn't look like changing any time soon. They also have a strong focus on small-medium sized commercial traders, especially as consumer laws have tightened, providing a professional online sales platform. Big businesses also see the opportunity and value in accessing TradeMe's massive user base, for example Dick Smith coming online, even though they already have their own online channel. Trademe has brought on a number of new business models as well, insurance, real estate etc. As an investor, I'm very happy with Trademe getting on with their work and sharing the profits.

[Bobdn]

Bought 8000 TME today at $3.48. I also own WHS - just wanted to make sure I've got all my retail bases covered ;)

[dingoNZ]

15% stake in Harmoney, cos em' $7.7. This values Harmoney at $51.3m, seems expensive at first glance?

[The BOWMAN]

15% stake in Harmoney, cos em' $7.7. This values Harmoney at $51.3m, seems expensive at first glance?

And I would suggest if someone at TME had a bit of vision, they should have built their own P2P business with less than $7.7m by now.

[McGyro]

I've not been the first person to notice the migration of private sellers to Facebook and away from Trademe (which just seems to be dominated by professional second hand dealers these days). I had a couple of tix to the Wine Festival, placed an ad on my local Facebook buy/sell site - they were sold in 20 minutes, cash paid, picked up immediately. No cost or hassle to me. Have to wonder why anyone would bother with the effort of putting an ad on Trademe.

Sad but apparently true.
I've had a few grizzles about the lack effective of TME board direction. The latest blind turn to Harmoney is yet another sideshow; effort should be put onto improving the user experience and efficiency of the Trademe website. Looks like I'll have to dump my TME shares instead of continuing to wait for the board to wake up to the fact that they themselves actually have to DO something. Talk about fiddling while Rome burns. The main perceived board faults are Greed (rate hikes), Pride (buying into sideshows) and Sloth (no material improvement to tne TME site). Thats are three of the seven deadly sins; four top go.
On the bright side, the local Facebook Buy /Sell sites look interesting.

[bunter]

The main perceived board faults are Greed (rate hikes), Pride (buying into sideshows) and Sloth (no material improvement to tne TME site).
I made a 'sell' list a few months back - WHS, SKC, NZX, NZO, AIA and TME.

WHS, SKC, NZX and half of NZO went.
AIA is in a vicious uptrend; can't sell till it goes down some.

TME reports this month. Craig's said today it was expecting a 'lacklustre' result. Me too. 20% gain in EBIT? I don't think so.

Last result, they said give us time, we're investing.
For much of this investment they've given no information.
For some, they've disclosed purchases (paystation, Harmoney) but given no indication of the effect on TME's earnings.

Harmoney might be OK, eventually. As for the rest, there's no way an investor can form an opinion.

This stock IMO is in a good part of a bad sector - online retail.
But it's not performing.
Some directors and managers are leaving.

Management problem?
I'm wondering if it's worth waiting for TME's result, or to sell now.

[newtrader]

On the sidelines for this one but interested in an entry. But your comments bunter is making me reevaluate.

They have said they plan on hiring more staff this year but I wonder what proportion of those salaries will be capitalised and expensed in subsequent years... Correct me if I am wrong but understand that treatment would have an effect on underlying earnings.

[bunter]

On the sidelines for this one but interested in an entry. But your comments bunter is making me reevaluate.
They have said they plan on hiring more staff this year but I wonder what proportion of those salaries will be capitalised and expensed in subsequent years... Correct me if I am wrong but understand that treatment would have an effect on underlying earnings.
I'm no kind of expert on anything NT. Sold today FWIW.

[warthog]

You might just turn out to be a great inverse indicator!

[bunter]

Glad to be of help.... there's a list of shares below you might like to short.

I don't like tech or rest homes, except ARV, so go nuts there.

Good luck!

[modandm]

pervasive negative sentiment on this stock is the opportunity. TME is the single best business in NZ for the long term. Suited to patient investors.

When the growth rate picks up again to 10% which should be no problem next year (operating leverage) the shares should re-rate to a higher multiple. Minimal debt, high cash flow, low capital intensity, dominant market position, secular growth industry, attractive fully imputed dividend, strong management (long term focus), these are just some of the positives.

Compare TME with SKC - TME grows better without spending hundreds of millions on convention centers, and lots of debt
Compare TME with AIA - TME grows without regulatory interference, and unlike AIA has low debt. AIA is highly leveraged

I see a strong case for TME trading on a PE of 24x vs 18 presently

[bunter]

pervasive negative sentiment on this stock is the opportunity. TME is the single best business in NZ for the long term. Suited to patient investors.

When the growth rate picks up again to 10% which should be no problem next year (operating leverage) the shares should re-rate to a higher multiple. Minimal debt, high cash flow, low capital intensity, dominant market position, secular growth industry, attractive fully imputed dividend, strong management (long term focus), these are just some of the positives.

Compare TME with SKC - TME grows better without spending hundreds of millions on convention centers, and lots of debt
Compare TME with AIA - TME grows without regulatory interference, and unlike AIA has low debt. AIA is highly leveraged

I see a strong case for TME trading on a PE of 24x vs 18 presently

Have you done a detailed analysis of TME, as with AIR?
What you wrote about AIR seemed well supported and turned out to be right.

TME seems based on opinions - e.g. management is strong, 10% growth should be no problem, TME's investment spending will help TME, TME is the single best business in NZ for the long term.

A PE rerating from 18 to 24 would give a 33% SP growth; I'd expect more from NZ's best business (and from several other NZ listed companies).

Speaking of which, have you looked at NZR?
I think NZR would lend itself to an analysis like you did for AIR.
Both seem to be cyclical stocks, well managed.
To me NZR seems at the same stage of its cycle as AIR was two years ago and has similar or better prospects.

Would be interested to hear your thoughts.

[Baa_Baa]

"Trade Me's half year financial results for the 6 months to December 30 2014 will be released to NZX and ASX on Wednesday 18 February 2014 at approximately 8:30am (NZ time). "

Go here for a link to the CEO's presentation webcast http://investors.trademe.co.nz/news/media-releases/2015/webcast-info-trade-me-fy15-half-year-results/

[Baa_Baa]

HY results here: https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/208104.pdf


"Trade Me's half year financial results for the 6 months to December 30 2014 will be released to NZX and ASX on Wednesday 18 February 2014 at approximately 8:30am (NZ time). "

Go here for a link to the CEO's presentation webcast http://investors.trademe.co.nz/news/media-releases/2015/webcast-info-trade-me-fy15-half-year-results/

[winner69]

HY results here: https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/208104.pdf

What you think of them BaaBaa

I think Mo will be very happy

[Baa_Baa]

Webcast just wrapped up. Suggest people who are interested, listen to the recording in light of the published results (link below or on NZX). Insto/broker questions & answers will help the FA's tune their financial models. Good to see more detail breaking out the numbers and a lucid overview from CEO.

Overall impression, apart from happy with 7.7cps up .1, is that core auction business market continues shift to new goods and commercial sales, TM have a good handle on it anticipating and responding to the shift. Acquisitions strategy seems prudent and positive on earnings. Big emphasis in product development (mentioned numerous times) resulting in significantly increased FTE/costs keeping overall earnings flat, though this investment in product appears well thought out along the lines of product/acquisition integrations, adding value to core and business lines.

Will be interesting to hear Mo's views, and the trolls for some perspective. Happy holder and accumulator on price weakness.

BAA


What you think of them BaaBaa

I think Mo will be very happy

[Bobdn]

Cool thanks very much for the overview. I'm happy.

[modandm]

Hi folks

A mixed result I would say. Revenue growth was pleasing, and it certainly seems that the classifieds business (including property) is firing nicely. Nice that they broke out cost of sales from other costs, and will model this going forward. Motorweb which is lower margin (incredibly 50% is low margin for TME!!), meant that expenses coming in were significant. It does make it a little trickier to work out full year without doing more work. I might steal and modify some from the brokers one they publish.

Strategic review of general items underway - please get it growing again!
More acquisitions - keep on acquiring!
Yield improvements on motor - keep it up

Be aware TME can manipulate their results by choosing how much IT development gets capitalized vs expensed. At the moment I don't think they are being aggressive, but they may need to be a bit more if they want to show full year NPAT growth this year... Either that or please hedge account the swaps... With D&A rising and interest costs rising I see its possible NPAT could be lower than FY14 - they won't want that. Interest costs will then fall when hedging losses fall out and profit goes up more.

Cash flow story still looks great. Investment case remains okay, I think management are doing the right things. Keep growing revenue at 10%, and operating leverage kicks in. It's a boring stock now but I see good upside over the next 2-3 years. Intergrating acquisitions does mean a bit of choppyness in accounting numbers which gets analysts and people trying to build models upset. But at the end of the day the long-term growth themes are still in place, and TME's competitive position remains strong. Thankfully the general items business is becoming a smaller and smaller part of the group, because its the classifieds which are gold.

[peat]

It seems quite a flat result overall especially in terms of profit but that said there is just enough revenue growth to satisfy the market which seems to be responding a little this afternoon.
Steady as she goes is not bad really

Anecdotally though, it would seem the kids are using Facebook to sell stuff these days.

[Baa_Baa]

Nice divi, sp up 8c today, a good day all in all.

In terms of flat profit, one should factor in the substantial increase in software development capacity, a strategic investment in integrating new assets and refining their existing software assets. This is how software companies stay ahead of their competitors and TradeMe is exceptionally well positioned, capitalised and strategically aware.

Trademe impress with their progressive shift from an online trade&exchange/auction model (albeit very successful) into a diversified ecommerce (online sales channel) business. Their acquisitions appear carefully considered in leveraging the millions of 'eyes' that differentiates their business in NZ, and blending together complementary 'vertical' businesses (real estate, insurance, lending, rentals etc) with self sufficient horizontals (payments) that make savings on using external providers.

The Classified business is going great. The company's comments on General Items business is conservative IMO, they could emphasise more and the acknowledge the customer base shift to growing professional traders and bringing commercial companies inventories online. I would like to see a bit more about how they intend to at least maintain the mom'n pop auctions customer base as that's the 'eyes' that is giving the leverage into new vertical businesses.

I doubt that they are too concerned with the emergence of free social media channels as sales outlets, they have distinct disadvantages (like locality selling, insecure cash sales predominantly, exposure to fraud etc). However I would still like to see TradeMe acknowledged that and their response to sustaining market share, if not growing share, as arguably that market is saturated.

Overall I continue to be impressed with TradeMe's diversification into a comprehensive ecommerce trading hub and their well thought out complementary acquisitions. The ramp up in developer capability bodes well for the future. I would like to understand their product strategy in more detail but in lieu of that, I'm happy that the CEO has such a strong background in product and long standing involvement with Trademe.

I'm with Modandm in thinking that TME is one of the best, if not the best NZ business with a long successful future ahead.

BAA


It seems quite a flat result overall especially in terms of profit but that said there is just enough revenue growth to satisfy the market which seems to be responding a little this afternoon.
Steady as she goes is not bad really

Anecdotally though, it would seem the kids are using Facebook to sell stuff these days.

[Baa_Baa]

Did anyone else notice the close 1 click above the 200day EMA yesterday? And the follow through up 12c to $3.85 close today, which happens on my chart to be, the 61.8% fib retrace of the May 2013 high. All the indicators are positive, improving with room for upside.

It might also have something to do with a very solid H1 interim result: http://investors.trademe.co.nz/news/media-releases/2015/trade-me-interim-result-good-progress-and-record-revenue/


Revenue up 13% YoY to $96.9m
EBITDA1 up 7% YoY to $64.6m
Net profit after tax up 1.1% YoY to $38.4m
Earnings per share for HY15 was 9.69 cents, up from 9.59 cents in HY14
Fully imputed interim dividend of 7.7 cps to be paid on 24 March 2015


:cool:
BAA

[Bobdn]

Did anyone else notice the close 1 click above the 200day EMA yesterday? And the follow through up 12c to $3.85 close today, which happens on my chart to be, the 61.8% fib retrace of the May 2013 high. All the indicators are positive, improving with room for upside.

It might also have something to do with a very solid H1 interim result: http://investors.trademe.co.nz/news/media-releases/2015/trade-me-interim-result-good-progress-and-record-revenue/


Revenue up 13% YoY to $96.9m
EBITDA1 up 7% YoY to $64.6m
Net profit after tax up 1.1% YoY to $38.4m
Earnings per share for HY15 was 9.69 cents, up from 9.59 cents in HY14
Fully imputed interim dividend of 7.7 cps to be paid on 24 March 2015


:cool:
BAA

I did notice the big uptick but don't do the chart thing. All the big action was around xero today (not a holder) but elsewhere there were great mini-dramas developing like Spk recovering 4%, big increase in TME, and GNE recovering back to sensible levels after going as low as $2.16 (I mean seriously who would be selling this stock at $2.16 especially with a big dividend around the corner?), and CNU hit a 52 week high today!

TME is about 8% of my modest portfolio so today was actually a big day for me.

[peat]

Did anyone else notice the close 1 click above the 200day EMA yesterday? And the follow through up 12c to $3.85 close today, which happens on my chart to be, the 61.8% fib retrace of the May 2013 high.



Big resistance point then?

[Baa_Baa]

Ok, I had to bail today, sold out TME. Not because I don't like it, quite the contrary, but I have more reliable holdings and need the cash right now. The timing was alright to take a gain and move on. All the TA indicators are strong but so are all my other shares, so it's cull the weakest. Goodbye TME, I hope to renew our acquaintance in due course.

BAA

[Baa_Baa]

Quiet around here lately.

@Peat .. well, the 61.8% fib might not be the precise reason the Feb25 bolt up peaked, but it did drop the next day (resistance?) and then spent the next 4 days working through it, though it did continue up after that. That's a fair backtest IMO. The fib is still on my chart and will be until it's smashed.

I bailed at $3.88 on Mar10, as I said I needed some cash. That day it threatened the steep short term uptrend line. It turned out OK for me, with the price gapping down the next day, falling under $3.70 and both the 50 and 200MA's. Which it still is, even after a decent attempt to break up on Thursday 19Mar.

Currently the chart is still saying caution. Under the big MA's, the 50EMA failing to cross (up) through the 200EMA, MACD crossed down and declining, RSI under 50, and money flow under 0% pointing down. There is still a nice short/medium term rising support trendline from mid Dec though.

I haven't really figured out this stock, it doesn't seem to be valued on any discernable qualities, so the sp just jerks around like a headless chook. The only thing the charts suggest to me is that a bottom is in at ~3.40 and if it can get to about ~$4.15 then a decent uptrend would be in place.

Cheers
BAA

[duncan22]

Update a month later - not losing ground but not gaining either:

TradeMe - 8,290
Realestate.co.nz- 9,248

Update 2 months later... Auckland Listings:

TradeMe - 9,493 (+1,203)
Realestate.co.nz- 10,450 (+1,202)

Update almost 7 months later:

TradeMe - 6,523 (-2,970) - Oldest Listing: 13th March
Realestate.co.nz - 7,728 (-2,722) - Oldest Listing: 3rd June

[peat]

NZX has announced changes to the NZX 10 Index.
The changes will see Trade Me Group Limited removed from the NZX 10 Index effective at market open on Monday 22 June 2015

[axe]

NZX has announced changes to the NZX 10 Index.
The changes will see Trade Me Group Limited removed from the NZX 10 Index effective at market open on Monday 22 June 2015

what is taking TME's place? MEL?

[peat]

what is taking TME's place? MEL? yes it has now met the minimum liquidity requirements

[winner69]

Some of those posts late last year and earlier this year seem to have been prophetic as the TME share price looks like it will have a 2 in front soon at this rate.

Wow, back to IPO price ...the ups and downs of the market.

I hardly use Trademe anymore. Buy the odd thing but don't go looking fo stuff as I used to. Look AR real estate listings as everything in one place.

Has the world changed that much that the likes of Trademe are going through a slow death or is there still life in the old dog after all.

[warthog]

Some of those posts late last year and earlier this year seem to have been prophetic as the TME share price looks like it will have a 2 in front soon at this rate.

Wow, back to IPO price ...the ups and downs of the market.

I hardly use Trademe anymore. Buy the odd thing but don't go looking fo stuff as I used to. Look AR real estate listings as everything in one place.

Has the world changed that much that the likes of Trademe are going through a slow death or is there still life in the old dog after all.

For a while the hog considered TME to be highly susceptible to being disrupted such was their slack attitude, rubbish UI, "not invented here" attitude and seemingly poor strategic direction.

Then a different perspective emerged: that TME had such momentum and membership, that it would be very difficult to disrupt this juggernaut, as those who had tried littered the battlefield, and realestate.co.nz were looking like they were abusing their position (ironically, relative to TME). The hog doesn't have any regard for established real-estate interests, especially when they are bleating about price gouging (if ever there was an industry that is due for the cold, transparent light of disruption, it is real estate!). If something better emerged, TME could lift their game and see them off.

But the hog let this view colour the hog's perspective. realestate.co.nz battled on, made their legal case, and forced TME to the table. Nothing substantively changed at TME.

Now, TME looks like it is desperately attempting to do what they should have sorted long, long ago: building beachheads in other markets, keeping up with user interface trends (and expectations!), and integrating other services such as shipping management, etc.

Now the hog has come full cycle. TME is looking like it is massively exposed to disruption.

Disc.: no holdings.

[winner69]

Always good to read your posts hog. Thanks

Will just leave TME on the watchlist to see what happens

[Baa_Baa]

The weekly TME chart only looks good to someone patiently waiting to buy back in. Interesting that the SP closed down this week ~at the 86% retrace since Dec 2011, but that's probably pure coincidence as few would put any faith in that fib providing support, and I can't see much better price support below here.

The breakdown week ending Jun19 could be measured as a symmetrical triangle (bearish) continuation, however I calc that target was about $3.44 which was last weeks close, so this week has overshot the TA calculation. That may provide some solace for a reprieve next week? I haven't spotted anything that suggests TME deserves such hiding, more so that it seems caught like a lot of earners in the overall market downdraught. But that's what makes it so scary as it's not trading on it's own merits.

If you invert the price axis it's a much more cheerful picture ;).

7518

[axe]

No love for Trademe today on results day??? Has everyone here sold out of the downtrend? Who is lurking and waiting for sub $3??

[peat]

it would appear to be a bit of a love hate relationship ;+)

[modandm]

I'm pleased that my investment case is starting to play out, but unfortunately I was too early into this one, buying at $3.50 12-18m ago. Anyone buying a month ago timed it perfectly...

Still I expect it to re-rate nicely in coming 12m.

In the current low return world environment what PE would you put on a high quality business with a 5% dividend, no debt, and solid 8-12% growth, supported by sustainable high single digit revenue growth. Personally 20x forward at least. Remember debt laded AIA trades on 30x...

20x21 = $4.20.

A nice low risk, growth and income stock. Forget the bleaters and consumer advocates on these boards.

[Crackity]

I'm pleased that my investment case is starting to play out, but unfortunately I was too early into this one, buying at $3.50 12-18m ago. Anyone buying a month ago timed it perfectly...

Still I expect it to re-rate nicely in coming 12m.

In the current low return world environment what PE would you put on a high quality business with a 5% dividend, no debt, and solid 8-12% growth, supported by sustainable high single digit revenue growth. Personally 20x forward at least. Remember debt laded AIA trades on 30x...

20x21 = $4.20.

A nice low risk, growth and income stock. Forget the bleaters and consumer advocates on these boards.

I sold a while ago when I talked to a friend who as part of his business ran a trademe auto parts store - 12 months ago he told me most of his young customers had moved to Facebook page groups to buy. I think trademe are in trouble as they have a static or declining business at the moment but it is not too late for them to fix if they are bold.

[modandm]

I sold a while ago when I talked to a friend who as part of his business ran a trademe auto parts store - 12 months ago he told me most of his young customers had moved to Facebook page groups to buy. I think trademe are in trouble as they have a static or declining business at the moment but it is not too late for them to fix if they are bold.

yeah they are in real trouble, only 10% revenue growth last year... most companies would bite your hand off for that!

Sorry to single you out, but this is exactly the sort of naive view of the stock which seems to pervade. :t_down:

We know the general items business is mature and ex-growth, the stock is more than priced for that. In fact it actually showed 2% growth this year, ahead of estimates, and the CEO said he believed this improvement was sustainable.

As the years go by the faster growth business (jobs,motors,property,others) become an increasing part of the revenues and profits, while investments into new areas like insurance require minimal capital outlay, and deliver high ROIC, benefiting from the high audience TME sites generate.

That's it from me. Checking in next year.

[Glendoonie]

Did all the Fundies miss today's TME bounce? I prefer TA personally. :)

[bluesideup]

Did all the Fundies miss today's TME bounce? I prefer TA personally. :)

Out of interest Glendoonie, can you share what you were watching with respect to the TA here? (learning mode, TA bias here :) )

[Glendoonie]

I was looking at the 30/60 day MA looking a bit iffy plus the stochastic slow indicator going nowhere so I placed an order rand opted o bail with a miniscule gain.

Share shot up: sell order went through. I could NEVER have predicted the sharp rise in TME sp.

Non, je ne regrette rien.

[tim23]

Maybe the good result is the reason the stock has been re-rated, maybe its that simple?

[Glendoonie]

Has TME been re-rated? Alot of those announcements bypass me. That's why I use TA (cough cough) because I lke the idea of a past trend being a predicter of future results. It seems so simpe on the face of it, but it's not a 100% guarantee for me.

The only 100% guarantees are death and taxation :(

[tim23]

How else do you explain a 25% rise (from $3.00 to $3.75) in the last 5 weeks, their result occurred during that time.

[IAK]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/73017144/Traders-return-to-Trade-Me

[tim23]

Amazing silence on the recent rise in share price in a falling market?

[modandm]

I'm pleased that my investment case is starting to play out, but unfortunately I was too early into this one, buying at $3.50 12-18m ago. Anyone buying a month ago timed it perfectly...

Still I expect it to re-rate nicely in coming 12m.

In the current low return world environment what PE would you put on a high quality business with a 5% dividend, no debt, and solid 8-12% growth, supported by sustainable high single digit revenue growth. Personally 20x forward at least. Remember debt laded AIA trades on 30x...

20x21 = $4.20.

A nice low risk, growth and income stock. Forget the bleaters and consumer advocates on these boards.

Looks like I called it perfectly so just here for my victory lap :cool:

[Bobdn]

Well done to you modandam. I sold some today at $4.15. Was a depressing day for just about everything else I owned so needed cheering up. Will keep what I've got left.

[Bobdn]

Two year high today! Amazing to think that this stock was just $3.04 just 5 months ago. Don't you just love markets?

[IAK]

Looks like I called it perfectly so just here for my victory lap :cool:
Good call modandm.
Disc. Happy holder.

[Arbroath]

Two year high today! Amazing to think that this stock was just $3.04 just 5 months ago. Don't you just love markets?

Crazy. In August the talk from brokers was of no growth for TME but I bought at $3.15-3.20. No doubt some broker will put a nice price target on them and talk a good story - but it's gone up $1 since the negative talk. Equity value is up $400m.
Valuation wise I'd say $4.20-4.50 it's at least a reduce. Good business but not strong growth or ex-growth, just 3-4% etc.

[Bobdn]

Nice buying. I bought much higher ($4!!!) but managed to average down to $3.59 when the price sank so things worked out ok, at least at this stage.

[peat]

Some chunky fee increases are being reported in the herald. Especially affecting over-$500 sales.
7.9% commission !!
It'll be interesting how this pans out considering the attempt to increase fees in the property arena didn't go so smoothly

[Yeshiva]

I read with interest today that NZME (the old APN) is in a brand war with TradeMe over the use of the word "me".

There has bee no shortage of companies trying to brand "me" as a suffix on their name, but mostly they've been small companies. Surprising that APN/NZME would embrace the branding of its opposition, though maybe things are really bad at the digital division of the Herald and they'll try anything to catch up.

Let's face it, Briscoes would never dream of saying they are "where you will also get a bargain', or that Toyota would release a car called "Polo"

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/me-me-me-trade-me-and-nzme-dispute-me-trade-marks-cg-p-183709

[Onion]

NZ Tech Podcast discuss Trade Me -- not flattering about the future, current relevance or some of their fee decisions.

http://nztechpodcast.com/nz-tech-podcast-265/

[winner69]

I love it when companies have to go to 2 decimal points to justify the statement 'Earnings per share up'

[LAC]

lol flat as an ironing board

[peat]

lol flat as an ironing board
mostly.... but revenue up 9% so the business still has growth, which shouldn't be underestimated given the potential incursions on their space.
But yes they do need to convert this more into similar levels of profit growth.

[sb9]

Quite surprised at the strong surge in sp both y'day and today after what were seem to be pretty flat numbers from their results.

Disc- non holder

[IAK]

Quite surprised at the strong surge in sp both y'day and today after what were seem to be pretty flat numbers from their results.

Disc- non holder

And strong surge today as well. It's amazing what those decimal points can do lol.

Disc. holder.

[peat]

it seems to me that the market gets very nervous before TME announcements as if they are expecting the bottom to suddenly fall out of the auction site business. Following confirmation that things are steady everyone gets excited again.
High beta I guess

[tim23]

I think the nice bounce this week is due to company getting toward end of reinvestment programme so bigger divvies real prospect.

[IAK]

Trademe has launched new service that allows users to book a courier without leaving the website. Seems like a good initiative, obviously they'll be clipping the ticket along the way.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11628835

Disc. holding

[tim23]

Great idea - held up nicely last 2 days in weaker market, always an encouraging sign.

[IAK]

Hmm some momentum in trademe lately. What's going on? So much for Morning Star's valuation of $3.70.

Disc. Holding.

[IAK]

Trademe up 25% this year. According to the NBR "people are starting to factor in the underlying business actually growing its earnings for the first time in some time as its costs growth winds down. If that continues that will generate some material earnings growth." Full year results for the year ending June 2016 will reported on 18 August.

Disc. Holding

[Baa_Baa]

Trademe up 25% this year. According to the NBR "people are starting to factor in the underlying business actually growing its earnings for the first time in some time as its costs growth winds down. If that continues that will generate some material earnings growth." Full year results for the year ending June 2016 will reported on 18 August.

Disc. Holding

TME is riding the NZX chase for earnings. It will ride the decline as well. This like many others are becoming a case study in managing capital, scalping dividends, and weathering the inevitable flight to safety. Whenever that might be who knows. It is certainly not a climate for buy, hold, or pray.

[peat]

Actually down 6%. (fy results)
They seem solid enough but uninspiring, and writeoffs are actually a part of business. So once again revenue up but profits not.
Also I noticed the second half was slower than the first so hopefully that's not a trend, simply seasonal.
I increasingly fear for disruption to TME. Especially now thatthe behemoth of Facebook is entering the auction space.
But so far no strong signs of that actually occurring.
What continues though is the need to invest a lot to sustain that revenue growth. Will it pay off ? Not quite evidenced just yet.

Edit: I see Craigs views it slightly differently haha
The result was in line with expectations and operating trends have improved as expected, particularly in the second half of the year

[simla]

I see your point about the market opportunity threat. But I think we might also factor in that these guys seem pretty on the ball too. Nobody could accuse them of letting the grass grow under their feet.

[mccollr]

Trade Me’s foray into the financial services market is yet to prove a winner with its fledgling insurance business under-performing and an investment in loss-making peer-to-peer lender Harmoney causing a drag on profits.
The Wellington-based online marketplace and classified advertising business today reported a 9.2 percent revenue uplift to $218 million for the year ended June with its general items marketplace restoring revenue growth after a two-year absence. Underlying profit was up 3.5 percent to $83 million and the company had a one-off impairment charge of $8.1 million from its struggling online dating business FindSomeone.
Net profit was 1 percent lower due to accounting for losses from the group’s 12.4 percent stake in lending platform Harmoney, the country’s first peer-to-peer lender which is facing increased competition from the arrival of other licensed P2P lenders Squirrel Money, LendMe, Lending Crowd and PledgeMe.
Harmoney reported a $14.2 million loss in the 2016 financial year, compared to $6.3 million the prior year and Trade Me’s share of the loss from continuing operations was $1.6 million, double the amount the prior year. Head of marketplace Stuart McLean has joined the Harmoney board.
Macdonald says the investment is a good fit as the two online platforms have a lot in common and he has confidence that it will pay off in the long-term as the new model for the lending industry gains traction.
Like many early-stage technology startups Harmoney continues to make losses and Macdonald wouldn’t be drawn on what share of losses Trade Me may need to account for in the 2017 financial year. Harmoney has said it is targeting cash flow neutrality – where the money coming in matches the money going out – this financial year.
Harmoney burned through $13 million of cash in the last financial year, after raising almost as much through share issues, and Macdonald points out the valuation in its latest fund-raisings were at a higher level than what Trade Me paid for its stake though that revaluation can’t be accounted for in its books.
Trade Me launched its insurance arm a year ago, selling car, general and house contents insurance direct online. It is underwritten by Tower Insurance.
Sales have been low, though Trade Me wouldn't provide volume or revenue numbers, and has only carried out a low level of marketing so far. Macdonald said it was “early days” and he still believes in the long-term opportunity.
“We’ve had a few performance issues we’ve had to iron out. At the moment we’ve seen low volumes and lower than anticipated a year ago,” he said. “We’ve now got it to a place from experimenting and learning where we have confidence to scale it up.”
Trade Me acquired the life insurance comparison website Life Direct in 2013.
BusinessDesk.co.nz

[tim23]

TME has had a remarkable run in last few weeks this morning even recovered divvy decent volumes too...

[Baa_Baa]

TME has had a remarkable run in last few weeks this morning even recovered divvy decent volumes too...

TME's remarkable run began at the lows August last year and have continued in a steep up trend since, almost doubling SP for canny buyers around $3.00.

Now we are hearing that the behemoth Facebook has opened for business with it's online 'Facebook Marketplace' facilitating buyers and sellers, without the responsibility for payments or shipping.

The Chairman David Kirk recently talked directly to international competition entering TME's market, soothing words for shareholders. http://annualreport.trademe.co.nz/f16/chairmans-report/

Trademe rightly boasts a huge registered user base comprising a large % of the NZ population, along with impressive 700k+ average numbers of site visitors per day and 3.7m live listings. http://www.trademe.co.nz/About-trade-me/Site-stats

While not directly comparable, these Facebook stats from Sept 2015 give some insight into the scale of Facebook in NZ, for example 2m+ average users per day. http://www.firstdigital.co.nz/blog/2015/09/16/facebook-nz-demographics-usage-statistics-2015/

That's got to be something to keep an eye on. Interesting times for Trademe's core business. Will this be the peak of SP performance, or more good times to come?

8344

Edit: interesting that yesterday Morningstar issued a SELL notice, valuation $3.90 "Trade Me's Economic Moat Rating Downgraded from Wide to Narrow"

[Lewylewylewy]

...Now we are hearing that the behemoth Facebook has opened for business with it's online 'Facebook Marketplace' facilitating buyers and sellers, without the responsibility for payments or shipping...

This is the major reason I sold my TME shares some months ago

[peat]

Well, to me the chart looks very ominous and there could well be a repeat of the two year decline from mid 2013 to 2015. As evidenced by the repeat of the long upper wick followed by sudden decline.
8400

[IAK]

Good solid result. Revenue up, net profit up, dividend up.

Job ad revenue the big grower increasing 23%.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11806004

Disc. Holding, my only remaining exposure to the tech sector.

[BullishBear]

Trade Me pilots instant payment system, developed in-house


Read more: https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/trade-me-pilots-instant-payment-system-developed-house-ck-p-200458

Follow us: @TheNBR (https://twitter.com/TheNBR) on Twitter | NBROnline (https://www.facebook.com/NBROnline/) on Facebook

https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/trade-me-pilots-instant-payment-system-developed-house-ck-p-200458

Trade Me is launching “Ping”, a PayPal-ish instant payment system.
An initial trial will involve 5000 members, with full rollout planned in a few months.
Ping will be free for buyers. Sellers will [GET A SUBSCRIPTION] : )


Read more: https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/trade-me-pilots-instant-payment-system-developed-house-ck-p-200458
Follow us: @TheNBR (https://twitter.com/TheNBR) on Twitter | NBROnline (https://www.facebook.com/NBROnline/) on Facebook

[tim23]

Nice bounce xd in a weak market, bodes well. </script>ws="8" cols="60" tabindex="1">

[artemis]

Ping - sellers pay 1.95% of sale price (same as Pay Now) but get the $ immediately. PayNow takes a few days. Appears there will be an account on Trademe into which sale price is paid by buyer. This can be used to buy Trademe items or have transferred to a bank account.

With PayNow, Trademe collects the transaction fee and a few days interest on a sale price. With Ping, they will get interest on a much larger pool of funds. Assuming people don't scoop funds out of their account with every sale.

[kiwico]

Wow, 6% plus down today with the only announcement at NZX (https://www.nzx.com/companies/TME/announcements/305188)being the appointment of Mark Rees (ex Xero ex Microsoft) to TME's Executive team as Chief Product and Technology Officer.

[peat]

Wow, 6% plus down today with the only announcement at NZX (https://www.nzx.com/companies/TME/announcements/305188)being the appointment of Mark Rees (ex Xero ex Microsoft) to TME's Executive team as Chief Product and Technology Officer.
yes I'd just noticed that
seemingly downgraded by a couple of brokers
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/571651a3/trade-me-shares-sink-near-six-month-low-falling-out-of-favour-with-analysts.html (http://moneyonline.cmail20.com/t/r-l-jljikydk-htzqultr-y/)

[IAK]

yes I'd just noticed that
seemingly downgraded by a couple of brokers
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/571651a3/trade-me-shares-sink-near-six-month-low-falling-out-of-favour-with-analysts.html (http://moneyonline.cmail20.com/t/r-l-jljikydk-htzqultr-y/)


Thanks for that Peat - food for thought.

[Joshuatree]

Amazon fear

Trade Me shares take hit (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/95576257/trade-me-value-drops-130m-on-amazon-fears)

[artemis]

Amazon fear

Trade Me shares take hit (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/95576257/trade-me-value-drops-130m-on-amazon-fears)

Trial of Shipmate* looks like a toe in the water copying Amazon Prime.

* NZPost - $12 for 2 months shipping of small to medium parcels from Warehouse, Warehouse Stationery, torpedo7, Noel Leeming. North Island, non rural for now.

ETA I was in Noel Leeming today and a staff member was restocking cables and flash drives. Dozens of them. Perfect candidates for cheap shipping.

[Hoop]

TME is broken..beware of the Bear

9065

[sanctus671]

2017 full year results: Revenue up 7.7%, Net operating profit after tax up 12.0%, 1c increase in div. Classifieds up 11.3%, motors up 8.2%, jobs up 25%, property up 7.3%.

Why all the hate on trademe?

[sl234]

2017 full year results: Revenue up 7.7%, Net operating profit after tax up 12.0%, 1c increase in div. Classifieds up 11.3%, motors up 8.2%, jobs up 25%, property up 7.3%.

Why all the hate on trademe?

Unless there's some factors in play apart from Amazon, 26% profit rise spells buy?

[LAC]

I think FY18 outlook is going to see this one drop a bit. I liked everything but the outlook

[Joshuatree]

Amazon and Facebook are threats and margins may compress but hey who hasn't heard of Trademe its the go to place its the incumbent with a long proven website its place in the mkt very hard to shift. Ive finally bought some cum div on this drop after mistakenly opting out of the IPO thinking it was pretty mature.

[Joshuatree]

The chart sure is not a good indicator to buy atm.
This deal may not get over the line . Trade Me holds out hope (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/96530086/commerce-commission-threatens-to-pull-handbrake-on-trade-me-motors-deal)

[alliswell]

Amazon and Facebook are threats and margins may compress but hey who hasn't heard of Trademe its the go to place its the incumbent with a long proven website its place in the mkt very hard to shift. Ive finally bought some cum div on this drop after mistakenly opting out of the IPO thinking it was pretty mature.

I think Amazon (and maybe facebook) are slightly bigger threats than you may imagine,...
Over the last year or so, I would have bought around 6 items from trademe,and at least the same from Amazon,...if not a few more

I have been importing items and selling on Trademe for the last 7 years and have noticed a big change it both it and peoples buying habits, where 3-4 years ago, people would see a bargain and buy it!,...now they seem to wait until they get a fixed price offer, a few months ago, I had a item with a buy now of $1.00...yes one dollar!!....post $2.40,...ended up with 12 people watching it,...offered it to them at the end of the week for $1,...no one bought...

Trademe is becoming pretty quickly a place where people sell second hand stuff, and larger overseas companies with their 15 k plus listings, who can sell stuff cheaper than what I can buy through the NZ distributor at wholesale (some items I use to buy locally as well as from overseas)
The middle/small businesses and part time ones like myself, are not going to see much sales in the future unlike it was 3-4 years ago...and yes whether a sale on trademe goes to Auckland or overseas makes no difference to TM itself...at the moment,...as more and more local businesses stop using it,..I think it will.as it will become no different to Amazon,...

Trademe's biggest advantage was/is you buy something and it turns up 3-4 days later,..now you wait three weeks...just like Amazon,( as I did with the books I bought a few weeks back, oh and the listing had no mention at all of it coming from overseas until I got the email, saying thanks and please wait for weeks as its coming from Ozzie!!)

I personally looked into TM as a investment,...though I would be careful ....as IT IS losing its edge.

[artemis]

..... Trademe's biggest advantage was/is you buy something and it turns up 3-4 days later,..now you wait three weeks...just like Amazon,( as I did with the books I bought a few weeks back, oh and the listing had no mention at all of it coming from overseas until I got the email, saying thanks and please wait for weeks as its coming from Ozzie!!)....

If buying new books pays to check Book Depository first. Huge stock, free and fast shipping, good prices and anyway it is owned by Amazon. Books usually arrive 7-10 days.

I like the fact that I can set up a wishlist and get notified if the price drops.

Occasionally I have bought a book, read it (or listened for audio books) and on sold it on Trademe for more than I paid.

They are looking at a premium delivery service, pay for 1/2 day delivery.