View Full Version : Hi Ho "SILVER"
If it transpired, which i doubt, that some ETF /derivative based PMs "is not real gold or silver" would you not think that would make the real bullion even more valuable?
If it transpired, which i doubt, that some ETF /derivative based PMs "is not real gold or silver" would you not think that would make the real bullion even more valuable?
Not sure, but one thing I do know, ETF/derivative based silver is very liquid, the real thing isn't. There has never been a run-up in gold or silver since the advent of ETF's, so no one really know what will happen in the event of a major downturn, but May 2011 may provide an indication when silver fell 35% in just a few days. Look at what happened to oil in 2008, that might give you an idea as well, oil fell almost vertically from $147 to $31.
A book I have here says:
"ETFs may have offered tremendous benefits when they were introduced, and still continue to offer investors a way to pick specific sectors, themes, individual commodities, and so forth, but we are at a point where ETFs may have created such investor frenzy and overinvestment, that current prices for stocks and commodities may be highly overextended - and set for a sharp pullback."
The book has just been published.
From August 2010 to August 2011 gold rose 25% while silver rose 166%, a historically unsustainable level, and an indication of a tulipmania.
For arguments sake lets say there are ETFs out there that are not backed by anything physical, or at least not backed by 100% physical.
I think this is a possibility.
What repercussions could we see in in the PM markets? Prices up or down for the genuine article?
For arguments sake lets say there are ETFs out there that are not backed by anything physical, or at least not backed by 100% physical.
I think this is a possibility.
What repercussions could we see in in the PM markets? Prices up or down for the genuine article?
Well I would imagine that shonky ETFs would erode investor confidence, and cause a wave of selling. There certainly are concerns over whether ETFs have sufficient backing, and according to one ETF prospectus:
"Gold bars allocated to the Trust in connection with the creation of a basket may not meet the London Good Delivery Standards."
You're probably not going to find out whether there's fraud or insufficient gold or silver to meet the selling demand until there's a collapse of the price. As Warren Buffett once said:
"It's only when the tide goes out you find who's been swimming naked."
Like the finance company collapses that impoverished thousands of trusting punters.
Those holding physical gold or silver think they're bulletproof but that simply isn't the case, in the event of a collapse in the price the liquidity of physical PM would dry up.
Thats assuming there would be a collapse in the physical.
Maybe only ETF holders exposed swimming naked.
Thats assuming there would be a collapse in the physical.
Maybe only ETF holders exposed swimming naked.
They would both go down together, selling of ETFs would force a liquidation of their holdings, whether stocks or physical, bringing down the price.
For the last 5 years the price of silver is 90% ahead of the silver miners ETF.
Looks like the ASX silver ETF is bang in line with the Ausi silver price. $32.66 today.
denpal
19-09-2012, 08:17 PM
They would both go down together, selling of ETFs would force a liquidation of their holdings, whether stocks or physical, bringing down the price.
For the last 5 years the price of silver is 90% ahead of the silver miners ETF.
Against my silver miner POS is down.
Silverlight
22-09-2012, 05:57 AM
Back into silver via shares at the end of last week @ 25, have been out for a year.
We might head back to 20 an ounce, but the long position is only quarter size, so ability to add more below 20, probably not the metal shares in silver producer/ royalty companies.
Sold out half my position tonight at just over $40, for a 60% return in 11 weeks.
Skol when you take an actual position on either side let us know ;-)
I have taken a position - I don't own any. My position's the sharemarket, which historically has risen when gold's declined, and vice versa, however the opposite is now the case.
Gold's up, so's the sharemarket, something isn't right, gold and silver are enormously overvalued.
Demand for silver in China is reported as lacklustre given the 15 months of fabrication demand they've accumulated.
Caveat Emptor
I thought the Bre-X scandal was a bad one, I was in Canada at the time.
Former Vancouver geologist and mining executive John Gregory Paterson, who created and distributed hundreds of bogus assay results to boost the share price of Toronto Stock Exchange-listed Southwestern Resources Corp., has pleaded guilty to four of nine counts of fraud.
Paterson, 62, entered the guilty plea through defence lawyer Rod Anderson on Monday morning, just before an 83-day trial was scheduled to begin in Vancouver Provincial Court.
Crown counsel Ian Hay told Judge Harbans Dhillon that the four charges capture the essential elements of the fraud. He said he will stay the other five charges.
Hay also said he is seeking a 10-year sentence on each of the four counts, to be served concurrently. Anderson has not yet said what term he is seeking.
The 11th-hour guilty plea turned the anticipated trial into a sentencing hearing, but that doesn’t mean it will be short or smooth. Hay told court there is still substantial disagreement about the aggravating and mitigating circumstances, in particular the amount of damage the fraud inflicted on the company and its shareholders.
Throughout the morning, Paterson — tall and gangly, with short, white hair and a full moustache — sat quietly behind his lawyers. He took some notes but otherwise sat motionless and expressionless.
In his opening statement, Hay told court how the fraud — which rocked the mining community and the stock market when it was discovered in June 2007 — started and ended.
Paterson was the president, chief executive officer and largest shareholder of Southwestern in 2002 when it optioned a prospective gold property in China (the Boka project).
Paterson assumed responsibility for the exploration program and served as the “qualified person,” who is responsible for compiling and disseminating information about the project, including assay results.
Hay said Paterson received the first set of assay results directly from the lab in May 2003 and included what he purported to be the results in a news release.
Hay said that, from May 2003 to February 2007, Paterson issued 25 consecutive releases reporting assay results on the Boka project. Problem was, they were not true: “Every one contained false numbers created by John Paterson replacing the true numbers,” Hay told court.
He said that, of the 446 assay results that were reported, 433 were “inflated values.”
The release was circulated to company executives and board members, then sent to the TSX surveillance department and publicly distributed through an electronic dissemination service.
Because the results might influence the stock price, the company also filed a “material change report” on SEDAR, the national securities database.
Hay said Paterson also entered the same figures into the company’s databases at the project site and its Vancouver head office. These results formed the basis for later technical reports on the property, and those reports, in turn, were used by analysts to recommend the stock to investors.
Investors and analysts, unaware of the fraud, pushed for a pre-feasibility study, which lenders require before they will finance this sort of project. Such studies include independent verification of assay results.
Hay said evidence will show Paterson engaged in “a series of ploys” to delay and defeat the verification process. He said Paterson sent emails to the on-site project manager, John Zhang, instructing him “to perform certain tasks that could only frustrate it.”
He also said evidence will show Paterson transferred $200,000 US of personal funds from a brokerage account at L.O.M. Securities in Bermuda to another account in Zhang’s name.
By June 2007, Southwestern executives and board members became concerned about the delays. That month, Paterson resigned and, according to Hay, nobody at Southwestern was able to speak to him again.
Southwestern set up an internal committee to investigate the matter. Members were dispatched to China to meet with Zhang, “but when they get there, Mr. Zhang had disappeared,” Hay said.
Meanwhile, he continued, a “lost” drill core was found in another warehouse. New assays from that core showed considerably lower values.
At that juncture, company officials obtained copies of the original assay certificates the lab had sent Paterson and found they didn’t match the assays recorded on the company’s databases. In July 2007, the company issued a news release warning the public not to rely on previously issued assay results.
Hay said that, just days before this announcement, Paterson made a second payment to Zhang, this time for $300,000 Cdn, through the same Bermuda accounts.
In November 2007, an independent mining consultant verified the reported assay results had been manipulated, and disclosed the real values. The stock price plunged to pennies.
The RCMP Integrated Market Enforcement Team in Vancouver commenced an investigation and laid charges in December 2010.
Meanwhile, said Hay, Southwestern was paying Paterson hefty compensation: more than $1 million per year from 2003 to 2005, more than $2 million in 2006, and $372,500 in salary and severance during 2007 when he resigned.
Hay also said that, between May 2003 and July 2007, Paterson traded Southwestern through five brokerage accounts, including one in a Bermuda account called “Sugna” (which he deduced to be an inversion of “Angus,” the Shaughnessy street where Paterson lives). He said Paterson netted $5.6 million from these trades after all costs, including tax.
After the fraud was exposed, Southwestern shareholders filed a class-action lawsuit. Hay said that, to settle the suit, the company agreed to pay $7 million, Paterson $4.2 million and his wife $3 million.
He also noted the company, based on the bogus assay results, accelerated options payments on the Boka properties, spending $4 million to acquire a 70-per-cent interest, and then another $1.7 million to boost that interest to 90 per cent.
In total, he said, the company invested $39 million in the Boka project, but when the fraud was exposed, the property was written down to $10 million.
He also noted the company engaged in a share buyback program, purchasing 1.3 million shares for $10.6 million based on the false assumption that the stock was underpriced relative to the assay results.
He further noted that the bogus assay results were incorporated, by reference, in three share offerings: the first in August 2003, which raised $15.3 million; the second in March 2004, which raised $40.2 million; and the third in September 2005, which raised $26.5 million.
Hay said witnesses will tell the court that investors lost a total of $260 million as a result of the fraud. He did not explain how this figure was calculated. Anderson is expected to take issue with this and other damage figures Hay is claiming.
After the fraud was detected, Paterson was also pursued by the B.C. Securities Commission. In June 2009, he admitted to fraud and illegal insider trading, and agreed to a lifetime ban from the B.C. marketplace. Among other things, he can never again serve as a qualified person.
Although he lived and worked as a geologist in Vancouver, he was licensed with the Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy in Australia. A week after he signed the settlement agreement with the BCSC, the institute permanently revoked his membership.
The sentencing hearing continues Wednesday morning.
I have taken a position - I don't own any. My position's the sharemarket, which historically has risen when gold's declined, and vice versa, however the opposite is now the case.
Gold's up, so's the sharemarket, something isn't right, gold and silver are enormously overvalued.
Demand for silver in China is reported as lacklustre given the 15 months of fabrication demand they've accumulated.
What makes you so sure it isnt the sharemarket that is the bubble?
What makes you so sure it isnt the sharemarket that is the bubble?
Because the stockmarket hasn't gone up 766% in 9 years.
The sale of silver coins at the US Mint are down 33% this year compared with last year Jan - Sept.
Signs of a mania-sales of silver coins at the US Mint to the nearest million.
2007 10m
2008 19m
2009 28m
2010 34m
2011 40m
So far this year 25m have been sold, the mania's ending, but how abruptly remains to be seen.
If the S&P500 had gone parabolic like silver it would be at 7283 instead of 1460 and DJIA 63,600 instead of 13,600.
Just pulling your chain on the sharemarket bubble--But if you think PMs are about to fall off the cliff,even with the coming inflation produced by QE3,then fair enough..dont buy any
Up 4% overnight ....toot toot here come $40 .........
Looks like the locomotive's gone into reverse, a train wreck coming up.
elZorro
01-10-2012, 07:26 AM
Looks like the locomotive's gone into reverse, a train wreck coming up.
Couldn't resist posting this.. Might need to turn the sound down on the video.
http://www.equedia.com/blog/view.php/Bullish-Call-Silver-Could-Hit-50-by-End-of-Year?utm_source=September+30%2C+2012&utm_campaign=September+30%2C+2012&utm_medium=email
Silver descending vertically at the moment, looks like the good job numbers could stick the knife into PM prices, everything else except for oil's in the green.
The losses in gold and silver have been a feature of CNBC this morning.
Not so sure I would call it good job numbers ,but definitely a relief to the US[and Obama]
Guess the big question is can it be sustained
Charts are still bullish on PMs though--see how it plays out next week
You have to wonder though,..unemployment consistently getting worse and then suddenly,right before the election[the last one before] it bounces.....nah.they wouldnt do something like fiddle with the numbers in a place like the states.......would they?
Pumice
06-10-2012, 05:28 PM
You have to wonder though,..unemployment consistently getting worse and then suddenly,right before the election[the last one before] it bounces.....nah.they wouldnt do something like fiddle with the numbers in a place like the states.......would they?
Its actually been consistently improving since 2009.
chart:4165
JB,
Looking forward to my tasty New Year's celebration tipple. Don't let it discourage you that silver's only got to go up 45% in the next 10 weeks for you to win, something that's never happened before in history, but you never know.
Its actually been consistently improving since 2009.
chart:4165
Thanx pumice--I stand corrected.
Makes you wonder..why the big panic at the last lot of figures resulting in QE3?
At any rate,the improvement of late does not seem to be causing the ''vertical descent'' skol has predicted.
So far its been range bound ups and downs.
Thanx pumice--I stand corrected.
Makes you wonder..why the big panic at the last lot of figures resulting in QE3?
At any rate,the improvement of late does not seem to be causing the ''vertical descent'' skol has predicted.
So far its been range bound ups and downs.
Give it time. it only happened Friday and it's Monday now. (Columbus Day in the USA, as people cogitate their gold 'investments')
It's October too.
Descending vertically because of good job numbers insinuates a crash,and that has just not happened
It's descended 3% in the last 24 hours of trading, something's going on. From Jon Nadler's latest newsletter:
In the case of silver, a similar topping price pattern has developed as the overcoming of the $35.50 resistance area was not achieved. Market observer Clive Maund (periodically contributing in Kitco commentaries) warned that (based on the sizeable short position among commercials and the aformentioned topping pattern “a bloodbath is believed to be imminent in the silver market, now that its cheerleaders have herded their flocks into the corral, ready to be fleeced again.”
gazprom1
13-10-2012, 04:27 PM
Hey skol
So, is this, in your opinion, the start of the move to $15 that you often make reference to or is it lower??? I am not convinced that we will see it at $15. In fact, it has been unable to break below the $26 mark.
Not sure many of these commentators know what is going on. Just sensationalising one way or the other. They always have their own boat to float.
Will be interesting to watch the price next week.
Gaz
Dunno Gaz but have a look at this chart of prices of American Eagles, silver now $33.40.
Looks pretty ominous don't you think?
why exactly do you think its ominous Skol?
You have mentioned a descending triangle and so go along with the view that this portends bearish behaviour?
I think silver will follow gold up. Gold also does not like breaking its previous lows.
why exactly do you think its ominous Skol?
You have mentioned a descending triangle and so go along with the view that this portends bearish behaviour?
The chart is a descending triangle since the beginning of last year, and although I'm not a technical expert, a book I have here says descending triangles usually, but not always, breakout in the direction of the original trend.
It has a base about the $28 mark, so I think it will eventually break out below that.
The parabolic spike to $50 last year is a clue that the party's more than likely over.
Even if it is a descending triangle formation does this really look like it is adhering to the plan?
4178
Dare I suggest it has broken the descending edge, the hypotenuse, on the upside and the descending triangle has failed. There's always a point in time at which any interpretation should be rejected especially a pattern based one.
Agree that there is a massive SR line around that 27 area now tho, and if price remains on the upside of it then its a massive support level working for the bulls.
Oh and the chart is weekly candles against USD
peat,
The USD is up against the Euro and I wouldn't be betting on the little spike upwards, probably a bulltrap.
Jb,
A poster on HC bought 400,000 one ounce silver coins on the 9th.
Let's see how that one goes.
Guess the starting point for your little exercise would be around $32 spot?
Im assuming you think he will be in for a fleecing.
Wondering what his time frame is
JBmurc
19-11-2012, 10:01 PM
Jb,
A poster on HC bought 400,000 one ounce silver coins on the 9th.
Let's see how that one goes.
So is this the 2013 bet... I believe his silver bullion will be worth more that what he paid by end of 2013 and you think it will be less than $32 ??? $100
Jb,
A poster on HC bought 400,000 one ounce silver coins on the 9th.
Let's see how that one goes.
so far so good
denpal
25-11-2012, 12:33 PM
Maurice Hubbartt latest at www.321gold.com.
totally agree denpal
I posted my version in the Forex Forum.
hadn't seen this , but yes its my thoughts that the pullback was an opportunity.
JBmurc
26-11-2012, 08:30 AM
" According to the data provided by the 2012 World Silver Survey, total global silver investment demand has risen from only 31.6 million oz in 2002 to a staggering 282.2 million oz in 2011.
As world economic fiat based monetary system continues to deteriorate, investors are taking delivery of physical silver rather than holding on paper contracts that may not be backed by any metal whatsoever.
This has created a run on the LBMA bank... the largest metal exchange in the world. Evidence of this can be seen by the huge increase of U.S. silver bullion exports to the United Kingdom. In 2011, the U.S. exported a mere 19 metric tonnes to London. However, in just four months (May-Aug), the U.S. has exported 291 metric tonnes to the LBMA vaults in the UK.. "
he derivative market is just plian scarey--Its a lose cannon
This is from an articl attempting to explain the derivatives market
Large notional value
Derivatives typically have a large notional value. As such, there is the danger that their use could result in losses for which the investor would be unable to compensate. The possibility that this could lead to a chain reaction ensuing in an economic crisis was pointed out by famed investor Warren Buffett in Berkshire Hathaway's 2002 annual report. Buffett called them 'financial weapons of mass destruction.' The problem with derivatives is that they control an increasingly larger notional amount of assets and this may lead to distortions in the real capital and equities markets. Investors begin to look at the derivatives markets to make a decision to buy or sell securities and so what was originally meant to be a market to transfer risk now becomes a leading indicator.(See Berkshire Hathaway Annual Report for 2002)
Apparently the putative value orf the derivatives market is greater than the value of the world economy
http://resourceswire.com/2012/11/the-piper-must-be-paid/
be afraid -be very afraid
JBmurc
28-11-2012, 10:57 PM
Dr Stephen Leeb
As the world really begins to look seriously at the energy problems we face going forward, governments will start to realize the strategic importance of silver. Silver is a better buy than gold. Silver is going to play a vital role in producing energy around the globe. Japan is turning to solar. Saudi Arabia is turning to solar. Virtually every major country in the world is turning to solar. There is not going to be enough silver to satisfy the demand for solar energy.
Silver has not broken $50 yet, but when I say silver is going to be a 3-digit commodity, it will be. These small silver stocks, they are the ones that are really going to be a big hit. What really worries me about silver, Milton Friedman said silver was the first monetary metal. Silver will benefit from the monetary catastrophe that is in front of us because it is a monetary metal. But silver is also needed for cell phones, energy, computers, automobiles and so on.
A Stanford professor, Mark Jacobson, wrote a cover story in Scientific American in late 2009. He said that in order for the world to ween itself from hydrocarbons, we are going to need four or five terawatts of electricity. The amount of silver that would be needed for that is more than exists in the ground.
So in the future when silver is well above $100 an ounce, you are likely to see governments saying to people, ‘You can’t buy silver anymore.’ The price of silver will be going ballistic, but the mines will continue to produce because the governments will continue to need every ounce of silver they can get.
The bottom line is we are looking at the beginning of what’s likely to be a massive boom in these monetary metals, but silver, in particular, is really going to soar.”
JB,
When you wake up in the morning you're going to find it's a hell of a lot cheaper than yesterday. Is this 'it'?
Your 1500oz hoard is worth about US$1000 less than it was a few minutes ago.
I wouldn't go listening to too many dudes like Stephen Leeb, whoever he is, they don't know any more than anyone else.
JBmurc
29-11-2012, 09:43 AM
Is this it? ......wow haven't heard you post the impending doom of silver many times LOL ...one day your'll be right ...
In the mean time I'm happy to have my small pile of bullion ...this time next year I'll be once again laughing at ya
-You know if this years bet had been the same as prevoius years I.e it would close higher that opened the year ,,likely for a third time your'd have lost....
big spike up last night, but whats more interesting is that it was not matched by gold
-You know if this years bet had been the same as prevoius years I.e it would close higher that opened the year ,,likely for a third time your'd have lost....
Given your propensity to 'invest' in PM's, the worst punt on the planet, I hope you've got sufficient funds for payment.
You made the bet not me. LOL
JBmurc
01-12-2012, 05:54 PM
Given your propensity to 'invest' in PM's, the worst punt on the planet, I hope you've got sufficient funds for payment.
You made the bet not me. LOL
I know I did...I took the bet after winning twice in the row ...gave you a massive head start ,,,,,but next time if your keen I'd be more keen on going back to higher or lower price starting from years start ....Silvers going much higher and my investment will continue to
increase in value
I know I did...I took the bet after winning twice in the row ...gave you a massive head start ,,,,,but next time if your keen I'd be more keen on going back to higher or lower price starting from years start ....Silvers going much higher and my investment will continue to
increase in value
With only a few weeks to go until I collect my winnings, you're only in error by 50%, not too bad I suppose.
JBmurc
01-12-2012, 10:07 PM
With only a few weeks to go until I collect my winnings, you're only in error by 50%, not too bad I suppose.
yeah I started off out 60% so in truth silver is actually up 10% for the year.... LOL
JB,
When you wake up in the morning you're going to find it's a hell of a lot cheaper than yesterday. Is this 'it'?
Tomorrow morning's gonna be the same, I think I've hit the nail on the head this time, this is 'it'.
macduffy
06-12-2012, 07:39 PM
Tomorrow morning's gonna be the same, I think I've hit the nail on the head this time, this is 'it'.
Isn't that what the boy who cried "Wolf!" thought?
Sorry, couldn't resist that.
:D
Well,its tomorrow morning--is this ''it''?
Well,its tomorrow morning--is this ''it''?
With Goldman Sachs putting a lid on the gold price, the top's in at $1920, it'll be the same for silver, downhill from here.
Whose going to put a lid on American debt?
This isnt ''it'',is it skol.
Someday, after biting the bullet and lots of economic pain,the economy will start to progress once again,and then ,when all the outside influences have changed,we wont need gold as a safeguard and it will decrease in value,someday.
And when that happens ,when the game has changed,then you will say ''I told you so''
But today,IMHO,to many things are wrong with the economy.
Whose going to put a lid on American debt?
This isnt ''it'',is it skol.
Someday, after biting the bullet and lots of economic pain,the economy will start to progress once again,and then ,when all the outside influences have changed,we wont need gold as a safeguard and it will decrease in value,someday.
And when that happens ,when the game has changed,then you will say ''I told you so''
But today,IMHO,to many things are wrong with the economy.
See the title of the thread? Is silver $50+ in 2012.
Not even anywhere near it, PM's are dogs.
With Goldman Sachs putting a lid on the gold price, the top's in at $1920, it'll be the same for silver, downhill from here.
Im not responding to the title of the thread skol--Im responding to your last 2 posts-they say-- THIS IS IT....... DOWNHILL FROM HERE
If you want to debate $50 silver I believe I called it at the mid 30s at end of year,but the point I keep trying to make is that it depends on whats going on out there economically.
If, at the federal reserve meeting,they decide to double up on the open ended policy of buying back $40billion of mortgage backed securities,you may see a jump in both metals--We'll see Meanwhile lets not try to change the rules of the game here
to suit our argument
If, at the federal reserve meeting,they decide to double up on the open ended policy of buying back $40billion of mortgage backed securities,you may see a jump in both metals--We'll see
Well called skid
QEn
Silver is always going to be volatile
Im not responding to the title of the thread skol--Im responding to your last 2 posts-they say-- THIS IS IT....... DOWNHILL FROM HERE
If you want to debate $50 silver I believe I called it at the mid 30s at end of year,but the point I keep trying to make is that it depends on whats going on out there economically.
If, at the federal reserve meeting,they decide to double up on the open ended policy of buying back $40billion of mortgage backed securities,you may see a jump in both metals--We'll see Meanwhile lets not try to change the rules of the game here
to suit our argument
More QE!
Checked the silver price recently?
Yep,its a funny ole world--Im not a trader,but if I was, Id be looking to buy in at this stage as the basic fundamentals of the economy have not changed which should help the metals over the next year, although we'll have to see what happens with the ''Fiscal cliff'' scenario.
As usual ,whatever happens,Silver provides us with the fireworks.
To put things into perspective ,the guy on Hot Copper who bought 400,000 [at around $32]would still be even or a bit up
/
Whose going to put a lid on American debt?
This isnt ''it'',is it skol.
Someday, after biting the bullet and lots of economic pain,the economy will start to progress once again,and then ,when all the outside influences have changed,we wont need gold as a safeguard and it will decrease in value,someday.
And when that happens ,when the game has changed,then you will say ''I told you so''
But today,IMHO,to many things are wrong with the economy.
http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/why_the_feds_jobs_program_will_fail_20121213/
When you wake up in the morning you're going to find it's a hell of a lot cheaper than yesterday. Is this 'it'?
Looks like 'it' to me.
A drop of another $12 and your prediction will come true Skol,your on a roll.
We're just having "the pause that refreshes" before the next onslaught.
Since silver hit its high it's down 65% and the S&P500 is up 10%.
Since gold hit its high, it's down 15% and the S&P is up 25%.
Gotta be a message there somewhere and with the cost of extraction at $585 there's plenty of scope for a big fall.
If you shave $1000 off the current price of gold I think that's about where it'll end up.
so your calling silver @$18 and gold @$650---noted
Corporate
22-12-2012, 07:34 PM
if anyone is interested, this looks good value
http://www.trademe.co.nz/Browse/Listing.aspx?id=544324275
JBmurc
22-12-2012, 08:29 PM
if anyone is interested, this looks good value
http://www.trademe.co.nz/Browse/Listing.aspx?id=544324275
Yes and trademe will be taking a good size chuck of the sale
It was a better value when he put it in than it is now.
Could even be better opportunities until they get this fiscal cliff thing worked out.
Some may be selling because of the additional taxes if they come into effect.[in the USA]
My guess is they will find their legs when the new year gets underway-Most fundamentals haven't changed unless they stay over the fiscal cliff and start to pay the piper,risking another recession.
Until then its anyone's guess-those that want to influence the market love those thinly traded days
so your calling silver @$18 and gold @$650---noted
Could go much, much lower, one EW analyst says depending on which wave is which, it could bottom out at $251.
That wouldn't be much fun.
www.cnbc.com/id/100335226
tricha
23-12-2012, 03:34 PM
Could go much, much lower, one EW analyst says depending on which wave is which, it could bottom out at $251.
That wouldn't be much fun.
www.cnbc.com/id/100335226 (http://www.cnbc.com/id/100335226)
U forgot two 00,s
$25,000 an ounce, China need another 2 -3 thousand tons of it, to become a reserve currency and with the yanks printing, with no tomorrow.
A loaf of bread will be $100
U forgot two 00,s
$25,000 an ounce, China need another 2 -3 thousand tons of it, to become a reserve currency and with the yanks printing, with no tomorrow.
A loaf of bread will be $100
Dream on tricha, a bit like the world's running out of oil, the airline's are gonna implode.
For years I've been told the the airline industry is headed for the skids, things are tough, now I'm getting messages that we're actually 'doing OK', which means the industry is booming, which I've said all along.
With all due respect,I think your both dreaming guys.Where we are right now is a relatively realistic and healthy range for PMs.
I think it is a logical thing to hold some PMs as insurance .I pay over $1000 a year for house insurance[on one house]and I dont expect anything but a total loss on that money[unless something horrible happens and then Ill be glad Ive got it] [well,i guess my Christchrch friends may have a word to say about that]--but you get the point.
Gold means you have something that is more or less out of the hands of corporate dominated Governments and their actions[although in the States they have seized their citizens gold in the past]
Having said that, I am careful what I wish for--$25000 gold would surely mean that things have totally fallen apart. I dont think anyone wants that.[but i guess it still good to be on your toes as much as possible.
For those who are traders,then its really a matter of as much education and fact gathering as possible,setting emotion aside.
I believe the fundamentals are still there and there hasnt been enough change for the better for PMs to start a long term descent,but I think we need to get the Fiscal cliff issues out of the way before seeing any real order in the market.
tricha
24-12-2012, 02:21 PM
Dream on tricha, a bit like the world's running out of oil, the airline's are gonna implode.
For years I've been told the the airline industry is headed for the skids, things are tough, now I'm getting messages that we're actually 'doing OK', which means the industry is booming, which I've said all along.
Happy Christmas Skol.
I've just caught my 1st fish
Merry Xmas to you too tricha, unfortunately the airline business doesn't stop for Xmas, so I'm away overseas, but this will be the last one.
I'll be home next year for it and kick work into touch in 2014.
Well lets hope the Airline business stays afloat--dont know what Id do without them,when the cold winds start to blow--and that goes for the rest of the economy as well...Merry Christmas to all
JB,
What's the bet for 2013?
JBmurc
02-01-2013, 11:15 PM
JB,
What's the bet for 2013?
Higher or lower Gold or silver from start of 2013 (think silver was 30.30 ish) closing date last trading day 2013.....I believe like the last many years the PGM will head higher even gold made 7%(silver round 3%) for the year ,,,SO HAD we had keep the bet a higher or lower I would have won for the third year running LOL ....that will teach me for being to cocky
JBmurc
04-01-2013, 09:16 AM
Now that some of the cancer research money is into this, we may finally gain some real understanding of how this stuff works. Note that all of this is coming from outside the United States. It would appear that the pharmaceutical industry does not have as much control in the UK.
http://www.newscientist.com/article/...apy-drug.html:)
Higher or lower Gold or silver from start of 2013 (think silver was 30.30 ish) closing date last trading day 2013.....I believe like the last many years the PGM will head higher even gold made 7%(silver round 3%) for the year ,,,SO HAD we had keep the bet a higher or lower I would have won for the third year running LOL ....that will teach me for being to cocky
OK
Silver ends 2013 higher than the last day of 2012 you win.
Silver ends 2013 lower than the last day of 2012 I win.
Right?
Your letter hasn't arrived yet.
JBmurc
04-01-2013, 01:59 PM
Good old Nz post was sent good few days ago hopefully turn
Up soon
The Reuters technical analyst expects silver to fall to $26.11.
The Reuters technical analyst expects silver to fall to $26.11.
It's on its way - $27.97.
JBmurc
01-04-2013, 10:53 PM
As long as it ends 2013 higher I'll be happy ....currently outside my long term silver bullion holding I'm only holding One pure Gold/silver stock .....3 Oil & Gas plays(one tech energy play) 1 -diverse metal,iron ore stock .(not that I don't think PGM sector is overvalued etc but just in the very short term the controllers of the fiat price have the control).....Long term Silver has only one direction only a fool would think a tightly controlled metal with the highest electrical conductivity of any element would not at some stage soon reflect it limited lifespan at current extraction costs to low value
JP Morgan has won a lawsuit by investors alleging it manipulated the silver price. The goldbugs kept that one quiet. Always was a load of bollocks.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/18/us-jpmorgan-silver-lawsuit-idUSBRE92H10520130318
Thank you for that-Personally though Im not convinced that a multi Billion dollar ''to big to fail'' Merchant bank winning a law suit necessarily means the accusation was a load of bollocks--but what do I know-I dont even know what a bollock is. :>)
Thank you for that-Personally though Im not convinced that a multi Billion dollar ''to big to fail'' Merchant bank winning a law suit necessarily means the accusation was a load of bollocks--but what do I know-I dont even know what a bollock is. :>)
If you don't know what a 'bollock' is, I'm not sure you should be dabbling with precious metals.
I'll help you out.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bollocks
$26.93, down 3.6% in the last few hours.
Have to keep editing because the price keeps falling.
Dumped those 1500 oz JB, before the next leg down?
JBmurc
08-04-2013, 02:00 PM
History of silver and one very bright future
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jRwUmGpmF38
great buying at the moment ....I see the paper shorts are once again at record decade highs ....last time we had this amount shorted silver doubled in value within 7 months thanks to the huge shorts being covered....
Hasn't it been great buying all the way down from $50?
JBmurc
08-04-2013, 08:27 PM
Hasn't it been great buying all the way down from $50?
It will be in years to come how many all depends on the consumption V's production ....Aussie is one of the world's top producers yet I don't know any pure silver miners making much if any money outside the very biggest producer's like BHP ...the likes of CCU AYN seem to be going to the wall yet you think the silver price is going head further south....you don't seem to understand basic economics
I understood you believe the world's got solid future growth ...... but somehow one of the world's most used precious metals will collapse in value...you didn't watch the above clip did you Skol Silver only second to Crude oil for it's amount of uses....
Why asteroid mining can create a trillion-dollar industry
Cecilia Jamasmie | January 16, 2013
Space mining start-up Planetary Resources has put together quite the infographic to explain how asteroid mining will create a trillion-dollar industry.
The company says there are over 1,500 asteroids as easy to get to as the surface of the Moon. They are also in Earth-like orbits with small gravity fields, which make them easier to approach and depart.
The most important aspect of asteroid mining is that those celestial bodies are platinum-rich. Mining them would come in handy as Anglo American Platinum (Amplats), the world’s top platinum producer by volume, announced Tuesday it is planning to close several of its mines, which would cause a shortage of the precious metal.
JB
GS have said gold will be $1270 in 2014, a quick calculation means a silver price of about $22.50.
Looks like Mrs. Skol & I will be dining out on you again this year.
JBmurc
14-04-2013, 10:44 PM
JB
GS have said gold will be $1270 in 2014, a quick calculation means a silver price of about $22.50.
Looks like Mrs. Skol & I will be dining out on you again this year.
If you are right then we also will see most of the biggest Silver producers stop mining as average break even costs for the largest producers now looks to be round $30 per oz(they will state much lower but the qtr losses from operations shows the truth) ....like too see what will happening to supply as demand has only been getting stronger...thanks to the 10,000+ different applications we humans demand....
Silver will go much lower than $22.50, gold will fall below $1,000, implying a silver price of about $17.50.
http://www.reuters.com/video/2013/04/11/reuters-tv-reuters-breakingviews-gold-on-the-edge?videoId=242183872&feedType=VideoRSS&feedName=Breakingviews&videoChannel=117766
JB
GS have said gold will be $1270 in 2014, a quick calculation means a silver price of about $22.50.
Looks like Mrs. Skol & I will be dining out on you again this year.
That didn't take too long JB, now for the next move down.
JBmurc
19-04-2013, 09:28 PM
That didn't take too long JB, now for the next move down.
Yeah looking at buying more currently as cheap as possible but the US dealer I've used in the past is just about sold out of all of it's silver bullion products ...a local dealer stated he now can't get some of the bullion at this stage also margins above spot are increasing.......fun in games going be interesting while silver stays at this low prices how pure silver producers will stay afloat thanks to the paper market deciding it's value and not the fact silvers demand + costs to extract is only going oneway
There were boxes of 500 maples for $1630 in trade me last week ,but gone now
http://www.bulliondeals.co.nz/buy-silver/bulk-deals-500oz
JBmurc
20-04-2013, 08:53 AM
http://www.bulliondeals.co.nz/buy-silver/bulk-deals-500oz
Yeah bullion deals one of the better sellers in NZ looking round $31oz was looking at momssilvershop best deal $28oz NZD but both of course needed freight on top of that value
So how much with freight? gotta freind whos interested in 500oz
JBmurc
22-04-2013, 11:38 AM
Currently we are not shipping outside the U.S. due to extreme shortages on silver and gold right now.
Operations Manager
Mom's Silver Shop
(916) 993-9787
NZ mint can do 1kg perth mint bars for $32.50oz NZD (NZD silver spot 27.50) even bigger 500oz etc orders
they can also do 1oz ferns for 32.50 ea but big orders will have to wait 3-4 weeks
NZ pure 31.50oz NZD
'Extreme shortages.' lol Goldbugs are always saying that there's a shortage of gold and silver. If you think there's a shortage go to your local bullion shop and see.
JBmurc
23-04-2013, 06:15 PM
AYN CCU now both suspended ...the two only pure ASX silver ramp up producers that believed they could make a profit (even back when silver was in it's teens) .....truth is Silver is far to expensive to mine costs worldwide for miners are inflating massively ...silver production is going to hit the wall very soon unless prices bounce strongly
Silver price plunging, looks like no one needs it.
JBmurc
23-04-2013, 09:30 PM
Yeah no one needs it skol LOL ..I just seen on CNBC electric cars still the way forward in the auto industry ..bet you don't even comprehend how many items right now you own needs silver ....right now where I'm sitting I can see least doz items that will have be it very minor amounts of silver to operate ,plasma tv,My SKy,remotes,Laptop,I-phone etc and this is only one of sectors it's used
"Silver has unique properties which makes it superior to any other substance. Importantly, it is the best conductor of electricity. This means that electricity travels faster while less of it is lost with silver as the conductor. If there is one thing that has impacted the world over the past 100 years it is the widespread use of electricity. Copper is the second best conductor of electricity and costs much less than silver. About 750 times more copper is mined than silver and much more of it is used in electrical applications. But when performance is critical, silver is the electrical king."
older article but shows how costly it has become to product silver esp from Primary sources
http://www.silverseek.com/article/silver-deceptions-large-surpluses-low-production-cost-8351
(Companies included were Pan American Silver, Coeur, Hecla, First Majestic, Silver Standard, Silver Corp Metals, Endeavour, Fortuna, U.S. Silver & Alexco Resources). Fresnillo was not included due to the fact that more of their revenue comes from gold than silver and Hochschild only reports their financial results on a bi-annual basis.
Here we can see that the top primary silver miners net income declined 78% y-o-y, twice the percentage of the gold miners. Not only did the primary silver miners total revenue fall from $954 million in Q3 2011 to $895 million Q3 2012, it did so while the group produced an additional million ounces of silver.
For those readers-investors who believe the silver miner's total revenue may have declined due to some in the group holding onto more of their silver production... let me share with you this tidbit. The top 5 primary silver miners in the group had total production of 16.5 million oz during Q3 2012. However , their combined sales that quarter of silver was also 16.5 million oz -- basically a wash.
So, the reason for the huge decrease in net income y-o-y was due to both the increased cost of sales as well as the much lower price paid for silver. By using the same approach as we did in the gold table, the top 10 primary silver miners net income per ounce declined from $12.06 oz in the third quarter of 2011 to only $2.53 an ounce this last period.
Furthermore, I decided to add up the same top 5 primary silver miners by-product credits which turned out to be 28% of total revenue. To be conservative I reduced the net income by 25% giving an estimated total silver net income of $39.7 million. This was the net effect:
$39.7 million / 21 million oz = $1.89 silver net income gain per oz
Again, this is my approach for getting a more "common sense" break-even cost for these primary silver miners. If we take the average price of silver in Q3 2012 of $29.91 (Kitco) and subtract the $1.89 silver net income we end up with an all-in cost of $28.02 an ounce. Even though the miners receive different realized prices than the average stated Kitco price in the example above, it turns out to be a very close indicator.
For instance, here is a sample of the average realized price of silver paid by top primary silver miners during Q3 2012:
Q3 average realized silver price
Pan American Silver = $29.27
Coeur d' Alene = $30.09
First Majestic = $30.48 (silver eq.)
Silver Standard = $29.37
Average price = $29.80
All of the figures presented above show that the break-even cost for mining silver is a great deal higher than the reported cash costs. Here we can see that the primary silver miners' profits have declined substantially as the average price of silver fell from $38 (Q3 2011) to $30 an ounce (Q3 2012). Moreover, four of the top 10 primary silver miners reported a negative income loss during the third quarter of 2012. It's safe to assume that if the price of silver fell to $25-$27 an ounce while costs remained the same, the majority of these miners would suffer net income losses.
JBmurc
27-04-2013, 01:39 PM
THE SITUATION IN THE PAPER SILVER MARKET IS EVEN MORE DIRE THAN I IMAGINED
BIG TROUBLE FOR BARRICK AT PASCUA LAMA??
PASCUA LAMA IS ONE OF BARRICK’S LARGEST GOLD AND SILVER MINES THAT IS SLATED TO BE IN COMMERCIAL PRODUCTION BY MID 2013. HARVEY ORGAN BELIEVES PASCUA LAMA SHOULD HAVE BEEN IN COMMERCIAL PRODUCTION SEVERAL YEARS AGO, BUT PROBLEMS ASSOCIATED WITH GLACIERS HAVE KEPT THEM FROM DOING SO.
THERE HAS BEEN ON ONGOING DEBATE ABOUT THE GLACIER AND WATER ISSUES IN BOTH CHILE AND ARGENTINA AS IT PERTAINS TO BARRICK’S MINING OPERATION OF PASCUA LAMA.
I ALSO BELIEVE THERE IS BAD NEWS COMING OUT OF PASCUA LAMA. AGAIN, THIS REPRESENTS 25% OF BARRICK’S GOLD RESERVES AND IF PASCUA LAMA IS NOT ALLOWED TO GO COMMERCIAL, IT WOULD BE DISASTROUS FOR BARRICK’S STOCK PRICE, BALANCE SHEET AND CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATION TO SUPPLY SILVER WHEATON 170-200 MILLION OUNCES OF SILVER.
IF PASCUA LAMA IS UNABLE TO MINE GOLD AND SILVER WITHOUT THREATENING THE GLACIERS IN BOTH ARGENTINA AND CHILE, BARRICK WILL HAVE TO GO INTO THE FUTURES MARKETS AND PURCHASE SILVER TO DELIVER TO SILVER WHEATON AT ITS CONTRACTUAL PRICE OF $3.90 AN OUNCE.
http://silverdoctors.com/barricks-200-million-ounce-silver-problem/
JB,
Think you may as well capitulate, throw in the towel and send me my $100 now. For you to win the bet silver will have to appreciate 36% by year's end, a virtually impossible task. PM's are like having leprosy atm.
Had to edit JB, silver's tanking, needs to go up another 3% in the last 2 hours.
JBmurc
16-05-2013, 10:20 PM
Yes some crazy times in the tiny Silver market ,I see the Gold/Silver ratio 61 ....so Silver getting hit even harder than Gold....am I worried
not really(outside the fact I'd love to be buying more at these low prices to my kiwi-saver) ..with fiat currency's worldwide are fighting each other to keep their export sectors competitive (Have seen it happen with our business ..losing contract to US ) .....lower and lower rates......even the lucky country is running deficits ...they will soon lower rates and lower their rates ..so many trillions of dollars are chasing yield's ,, pushing up local currency value and yield ...look at NZD/USD cross rates crazy indeed...Apple got rid of billions of dollars worth of long dated bonds 20yrs+ 1.9% yield ....gold silver may not pay a yield but least I'm not holding debt
Yeah I don't think we'd see $10 or even sub $20 personal I think we've seen the bottom in the low 30's maybe that could get hit again over the next few months unlikely IMHO but time will tell
Posted on the 11/5/2011.
"I think we've seen the bottom in the low 30's".
lol
How about the low teens?
JBmurc
02-06-2013, 01:32 PM
Posted on the 11/5/2011.
"I think we've seen the bottom in the low 30's".
lol
How about the low teens?
Low teens ....yeah right
The Top Two Silver Mines Production Falls over 15% in 2011
The largest silver producing mine in the world is the Cannington mine in Australia. Silver production at Cannington declined from 38.6 million oz in 2010, to only 32.2 million oz in 2011. The Fresnillo mine, which is the second highest silver producer in the world, saw its output drop from 35.9 million oz in 2010 down to 30.3 million oz in 2011. For sake of clarity, Fresnillo plc is the name of the largest primary silver mining company in the world that operates several gold and silver projects. Fresnillo is also the name of its largest silver mine.
Cannington’s silver ore grades fell from 453 g/t (grams per ton) at year end in 2010 to an average of only 352 g/t compared to the same period in 2011. This damage of declining ore grades becomes even more apparent when we look at the total amount of ore milled each year. In 2010, Cannington milled a total of 3,075,000 tonnes of ore compared to 3,213,000 tonnes in 2011. Even with a small increase in total milled ore in 2011 over 2010; Cannington’s silver production decreased 16.5%.
Fresnillo didn’t fare any better. Its average silver ore grade fell from 474.4 g/t in 2010 to 395.5 g/t in 2011. This 16.6% decline in average ore grade accounted for Fresnillo’s 15.5% decline in silver production in 2011. Furthermore, Fresnillo’s first quarter silver production fell an additional 4% compared to the last quarter in 2011 with an average ore grade of only 335 g/t.
http://www.wealthwire.com/news/metals/3100
JB,
Sell your silver, pronto, and buy some Japanese shares.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100768312
JBmurc
02-06-2013, 01:59 PM
JB,
Sell your silver, pronto, and buy some Japanese shares.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100768312
No thanks but by all means fill your boots ...personal I'd be doing the opposite
JBmurc
03-06-2013, 09:40 PM
JB,
Sell your silver, pronto, and buy some Japanese shares.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100768312
LOL Nikki smashed like the DOW
Nikkei is going to 17,000, gold's going to $1,000, silver to around $15. Have fun with your 1,500 oz.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100768312
Dow 'smashed'? (lol, even I'm using goldbug jargon) It's up 138.
Meanwhile goldbugs worldwide are still bangin' on about banksters, the Fed, Bernanke, gold haters, the 'original' money, manipulation, the 5000 year store of value, ya gotta pity them, locked into their 12 year timewarp when gold was going to the moon and nothing was gonna stop it.
What do the goldbugs say? "We are all economists"
What a joke.
JB,
Sell your silver, pronto, and buy some Japanese shares.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100768312
mpact from the data.
Japan’s stock market fell sharply again in overnight trading as it appears the major bull run in the Nikkei stock index has ended. The Nikkei has dropped by 17% in less than two weeks’ time. Many are wondering if the Nikkei is a leading indicator of how the U.S. stock indexes will fare in the coming weeks. If the other world stock markets do start to back down from their recent rallies, that would be a bullish factor for gold, silver and other asset classes.
17% in 2 weeks Ouch!
Let's get it in perspective:
Last 6 months: N225 +46% Gold -19% Silver -26%
Last 12 months: N225 +66% Gold -15% Silver -23%
In that case maybe you should sell while you can still see daylight :>)
Thought Id take a leaf out of your book for a bit of friendly ribbing [and I didnt even use the word ''crash'' or ''horrified'' etc..etc..
4583A well established downtrend in silver now, probably sub $20 in the next 2 or 3 weeks. Daryl Guppy says a major support level at $15.50.
Silver now sub $20 as I predicted, next stop $15.50.
JBmurc
02-07-2013, 12:45 PM
Author: Dorothy Kosich
Wednesday , 19 Jun 2013
RENO (MINEWEB) -
Recent advances in biotechnology have brought a renewed focus on silver’s centuries old history as an important medical weapon.
In a news release issued Wednesday, the Silver Institute observed that the medical use of silver has helped reduce the growing threat of antibiotic-resistant germs spreading through a hospital.
“Today, advances in coatings technology has enabled medical equipment producers to introduce silver-coated instruments and hospital equipment for use in treating patients—eliminating, on contract, almost every bacterial or fungal exposure,” said Michael DiRienzo, executive director of the Silver Institute.
Because silver breaks down cell walls and interferes with respiration and reproduction, bacteria have great difficulty in developing immunity to the metal, The Silver Institute noted.
“Today, the need to combat antibiotic-resistant superbugs and to suppress hospital-acquired infections has increased the importance and number of uses of silver-infused products,” the Institute observed.
“The ability to coat materials such as polyurethane, silicone and textile fibers with either metallic silver or ionic silver compounds now provides clinicians with efficient means of overcoming difficult wound care and device-related infections, which have long proved costly and difficult to manage in terms of hospital care,” said the Institute. Earlier this year, an in-vitro laboratory study conducted by Smith & Nephew, a global medical technology company based in London, found a silver-coated antimicrobial dressing, ACTICOAT, could kill “superbug” organisms that were the most difficult to treat.
More recently, Reno, Nevada-based NMI Health recently launched its SilverCare Plus antimicrobial performance soft surface products at the 40th Annual Association of Professionals for Infection Control conference in Florida this month. NMI Health exhibited performance fabrics including scrub and lab coat material, patient gowns, linens, blankets and cubicle curtains. Collectively, these products account for over 90% of soft surfaces found in the patient environment.
NMI partnered with Noble Biomaterials to manufacture the SilverCare Plus line.
Modern technology has also enabled manufacturers to use silver to fight potential infection beyond hospital walls, the Silver Institute noted. A number of water purification systems rely on silver to keep water fresh. Samsung is using nanosilver technology in some of its home washing machines.
Motorola uses silver embedded in plastic housings for many of its mobile phones. Other manufacturers are using silver in keys, or in the cases of calculators and other hand-held instruments.
Paints too have been made more effective against molds, yeasts and various bacteria with the addition of silver.
------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------
Test results have shown that the nano silver solution possesses the ability to kill several bacteria including vibrio cholera, E.Coli, V.Parahaemolyticus and V.Parahaemolyticus, said Dang Thi My Dung, a postgraduate researcher with LNT.
http://english.vietnamnet.vn/fms/society/76430/can-nanotech-save-dying-shrimp-farms-.html
Silverlight
02-07-2013, 02:37 PM
I got back into Silver last week, after being out since Sept/ December last year. Bought SLW as my proxy @ $18.75, silver @ 18.
JBmurc
02-07-2013, 02:50 PM
I got back into Silver last week, after being out since Sept/ December last year. Bought SLW as my proxy @ $18.75, silver @ 18.
I'm guessing you took a bull warrant ? or ETF
Silverlight
03-07-2013, 04:01 PM
I'm guessing you took a bull warrant ? or ETF
Bull warrant? I just bought the head share of SLW (Silver Wheaton), SSRI looks good value, but most of the miners are a bit more risk than I willing to take, SLW on P/E circa 10 is good value.
I got in and out last year, for a good 60%, expect the same again.
As of 5/7/2013, the iShares silver trust owned 10,051 tonnes of silver, lets keep tabs on it from now on.
iShares Silver trust down 17 tonnes since Friday, now 10,034 tonnes.
Silverlight
24-07-2013, 12:56 PM
SLW last price 23.60, +25.8% unrealised gain in under 4 weeks.
JBmurc
07-08-2013, 05:30 PM
Silver is winning India's "War on Gold"
Eric Sprott & David Franklin
As India continues to wage war with gold, investors are seeking out the yellow metal through any means available.
Recent reports suggest that there is not enough room on commercial flights into Dubai for all those investors seeking to purchase gold.
“I cannot find a place for transporting gold on Emirates, on BA or Swiss Airlines this weekend,” lamented Tarek El Mdaka, the managing director of Kaloti Gold in Dubai adding he is shipping as much as 2 tonnes of gold every day.
As we had suspected, it would appear that the Indian gold trade has moved offshore to avoid the restrictions on imports and extra taxes imposed. However, this is not the biggest change in the Indian precious metals market – silver imports have exploded.
Silver has not been exposed to the same import restrictions that gold has and recent silver import figures confirm that investors have flocked to silver, likely as a substitute for their desire for gold. And why shouldn’t they?
With limited bank branches in the country, owning precious metals is synonymous with savings and security.
While it seems that the larger investors have moved their gold purchases offshore, we suspect that the majority of Indian investors have turned to silver as a substitute for gold. The recent import numbers are staggering.
While India imported 1,900 tonnes of silver in 2012, in the first five months of 2013 alone, imports have touched 2,400 tonnes. According to industry estimates, silver imports during the January-March quarter stood at 760 tonnes.
Imports shot up to 720 tonnes in April alone, and in May they further swelled by 920 tonnes.
Let’s put these numbers in perspective, according to the Silver Institute, the world produced 24,478 tonnes of silver in 2012, implying that Indians have imported almost 10% of world production so far this year.
If they continue to import at the same rate as they have in May, over the next 12 months India could import close to half of world silver production which is a truly staggering shift in demand for silver.
The next salvo in the war on gold occurs this Monday July 1st when “The All India Gems and Jewellery Trade Federation” (representing 90% of jewelers in India) declares a ban on its members selling gold bars and coins.
It’s almost unbelievable that this retail federation would impose an all-out ban on purchasing gold for investment purposes, but all is fair in love and war. However, Indians aren’t phased and are shrugging off this ban and investing their rupee’s in silver instead.
This new import data shows that the victor in India’s “War on Gold” – will be silver.
www.proactiveinvestors.com.au
I've read that, but in the meantime gold and silver continue to plunge.
What will I do with my winnings this year JB? I'll be home for Xmas this year, and every Xmas thereafter, a couple of bottles of Moet sound OK.
JBmurc
07-08-2013, 08:11 PM
I've read that, but in the meantime gold and silver continue to plunge.
What will I do with my winnings this year JB? I'll be home for Xmas this year, and every Xmas thereafter, a couple of bottles of Moet sound OK.
Talk about cocky .....not looking good for me this year which will take it to 2-2 ...the decider will be 2014
JBmurc
16-08-2013, 10:25 AM
Silver now 22.91oz starting another bull trend from it,s $18oz low base ......$30.31oz by 31st Dec my pick ......
I've posted the numbers on the gold thread if history repeats itself, and a 1980 gold redux occurs, so I'll do the same with silver.
It's uncanny.
In 1980 silver topped out at $43 and fell 69% to $13, then rose 84% to $24 before the axe finally fell and silver imploded to $3.60.
In 2011 silver went to $49, fell 63% to $18 and is now on the way up.
If 1980 repeats, silver will rise to $33, crash, and finally end up at $5.
That doesn't sound like much fun JB with 1500 ounces buried in the garden.
JBmurc
17-08-2013, 07:53 PM
I've posted the numbers on the gold thread if history repeats itself, and a 1980 gold redux occurs, so I'll do the same with silver.
It's uncanny.
In 1980 silver topped out at $43 and fell 69% to $13, then rose 84% to $24 before the axe finally fell and silver imploded to $3.60.
In 2011 silver went to $49, fell 63% to $18 and is now on the way up.
If 1980 repeats, silver will rise to $33, crash, and finally end up at $5.
That doesn't sound like much fun JB with 1500 ounces buried in the garden.
-Lay of the drugs mate $5 ??? Don't you understand demand Vs supply and Inflation in costs of production ...saying Silver will go back to
1980 levels would be like expecting your local builder to build you a new house for 1980 prices say 30-40k now 200-300k cost WTF
-Lay of the drugs mate $5 ??? Don't you understand demand Vs supply and Inflation in costs of production ...saying Silver will go back to
1980 levels would be like expecting your local builder to build you a new house for 1980 prices say 30-40k now 200-300k cost WTF
You keep forgetting, houses are useful, there's not much rent for gold or silver.
JBmurc
17-08-2013, 09:44 PM
You keep forgetting, houses are useful, there's not much rent for gold or silver.
And you keep forgetting Silver's users ...the only way you see Silver is as Bullion investment and not the near billion oz industry demand ....Buts thats you....the same old rhetoric....have a read of the links below before you post back the usual "Silver worthless going to $5 bah bah"
http://www.visualcapitalist.com/portfolio/the-silver-series-the-history-of-silver-part-1
http://www.visualcapitalist.com/portfolio/the-silver-series-supply-and-demand-part-2
http://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-silver-series-investment-part-3
Taking inflation into account? I have.
It finally ended up at $3.60 in 1993, so if it falls to $5 this time that factors in inflation of 39%.
Silver rose 14 times in 18 years, anyone with half a brain knows that's a bubble.
If the DJIA had done the same thing it would have been 49,000+ in 2011.
Not forgetting it was $4 in 2001 and went to $49 in 2011.
If the DJIA had done the same thing it would've gone to 128,600+.
Only demented punters think that's normal.
JBmurc
18-08-2013, 11:01 AM
4722
Your F'n Dreaming Skol but I wouldn't expect any sane view from you on the price of these metals
JBmurc
18-08-2013, 08:38 PM
I think you haven't discounted the fact that miners have been ramping up costs due to the ever increasing price of silver/gold/PM's. If I remember correctly, some companies were paying $90K a years AUD for people just to drive trucks. That's one example. Take a look at Fortescue Metals to see the massive amount of perks they shredded to stay out of bankruptcy! That kind of wage is unsustainable, and as the price falls they can EASILY trim the fat. The fact that most miners have started announcing dividends to their shareholders who invested during the last 2 years to just keep them happy because of their huge recent losses is another clue. Miners claiming poverty is like congolmerate bankers calling it during the GFC; sometimes you need to suffer and cut your massive salaries and bonuses for the betterment of the company ;)
And you think people will fly into ****holes in the desert work 12hr shifts 14 days solid in 40deg heat n Dust for peanuts ?
JBmurc
19-08-2013, 02:56 PM
Yet another strong move North for the Indispensable Metal up over 20% now for the last 30days keep it coming 30.35 here we come DEC 2013
You keep forgetting, houses are useful, there's not much rent for gold or silver.
Houses are not that useful if your mortgage is double the houses worth
Houses are not that useful if your mortgage is double the houses worth
Don't think you've been reading the newspapers lately. Probably spent the evening down the pub.
JBmurc
19-08-2013, 08:09 PM
Talking bout houses was once again looking into the local Qutown property market ....and geez some real dreamers for Houses/units/apartments out there no doubt Aucklanders(or ex-aucklanders hoilday/investors)
One larger Apartment 170sqm a nice close to CBD ...660 R.V asking 900k+ ...really just about most of the properties asking 20-50% higher than valuation now in my last dealings with the bank 2009 even with 50% cap they really took the R.V&G.V seriously on are build(gave us a max spend less the total cost).....surely many Auckland property buyers must be finding it hard paying way over the valuation's
That's nothing, from today's Herald.
------
11 Heywood Cres, Epsom, was bought at auction for $2.5 million.
A four-bedroom home in Epsom has sold for more than $1 million - or 82 per cent - above valuation.
After a three-week marketing campaign, the two-storey weatherboard property at 11 Heywood Cres reached $2.5 million in the Ray White auction rooms last week.
It was purchased by a couple with two children.
The 2011 capital value on the house was $1.37 million.
Real estate agent Steve Williams, of Ray White Remuera, said there were five bidders in the room and three on the phones. Bidding started at $1.2 million. About 79 groups had been through three open homes.
--------------------------
Got a mate on the North Shore that sold a property recently for $1 mill above GV.
JBmurc
19-08-2013, 08:23 PM
That's nothing, from today's Herald.
------
11 Heywood Cres, Epsom, was bought at auction for $2.5 million.
A four-bedroom home in Epsom has sold for more than $1 million - or 82 per cent - above valuation.
After a three-week marketing campaign, the two-storey weatherboard property at 11 Heywood Cres reached $2.5 million in the Ray White auction rooms last week.
It was purchased by a couple with two children.
The 2011 capital value on the house was $1.37 million.
Real estate agent Steve Williams, of Ray White Remuera, said there were five bidders in the room and three on the phones. Bidding started at $1.2 million. About 79 groups had been through three open homes.
Geez now thats a bubble if there ever was one...our own home has a 1.05mill G.V but I never expect much higher for a sale price purely because I know I could build it again for not much more...on another section...
these guys buying must have some fat wallets and not borrowing much money from the bank ....or is the banks just as crazy up there?
This could also increase rates on higher future G.V's ?
This is from the FT, retail investors are normally the last suckers in:
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"Silver is a retail investor metal rather than gold,” says David Wilson, metals analyst at Citigroup. “It does seem that retail investors get overexcited."
And
And bankers say that Chinese interest in silver, either from investors or industrial users, remains unremarkable: the country’s net imports have fallen and Chinese silver premiums, a closely followed indicator of the strength of demand in the country, have remained weak.
“I still think silver looks horrible,” concludes Mr Wilson at Citigroup. “To me it looks like an oversupplied market and I can’t see why you’d want to buy it.”
JBmurc
04-09-2013, 12:07 PM
This is from the FT, retail investors are normally the last suckers in:
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"Silver is a retail investor metal rather than gold,” says David Wilson, metals analyst at Citigroup. “It does seem that retail investors get overexcited."
And
And bankers say that Chinese interest in silver, either from investors or industrial users, remains unremarkable: the country’s net imports have fallen and Chinese silver premiums, a closely followed indicator of the strength of demand in the country, have remained weak.
“I still think silver looks horrible,” concludes Mr Wilson at Citigroup. “To me it looks like an oversupplied market and I can’t see why you’d want to buy it.”
Yeah mean time silver is up $24.28oz may it continue then Mr ms Murc can dine on SKOL cash LOL
Daytr
04-09-2013, 03:50 PM
Silver is basically the poor man's gold. So if gold does well & runs a lot higher people will turn to silver as a cheaper alternative. Its a very difficult market to trade with low liquidity & is far more volatile than gold. One reason I prefer gold to silver is that silver is a large bi-product of a lot of base metal mining so as base metal production increases so does silver production. The production statistics are also very grey as a lot of silver production is reported as bi-product whereas most gold production is a significant part of the production in any mining producing gold due to its price per ounce. In saying that I think silver will do okish, but more as a function of gold doing well & not fundamentals.
Yeah mean time silver is up $24.28oz may it continue then Mr ms Murc can dine on SKOL cash LOL
For you to win silver will have to appreciate 26% in 4 months, an impossible task only exceeded in the 1979 mania and right now silver is plunging.
Mr. and Mrs. Skol and kinder will be dining out on Murc cash for the second year in a row.
JBmurc
04-09-2013, 05:44 PM
Silver is basically the poor man's gold. So if gold does well & runs a lot higher people will turn to silver as a cheaper alternative. Its a very difficult market to trade with low liquidity & is far more volatile than gold. One reason I prefer gold to silver is that silver is a large bi-product of a lot of base metal mining so as base metal production increases so does silver production. The production statistics are also very grey as a lot of silver production is reported as bi-product whereas most gold production is a significant part of the production in any mining producing gold due to its price per ounce. In saying that I think silver will do okish, but more as a function of gold doing well & not fundamentals.
Yeah personal I like Silver over Gold(bullion wise and longer term outlook) for many reasons one of course is the amount in reserves only round 10 times more Silver in world in-ground reserves than Gold http://www.usdebtclock.org/gold-precious-metals.html
and the fact in modern times much less above ground holdings than Gold which mostly is still around in vaults
then you have the Industry demand behind Silver which is only beaten by Oil on the amount of amount of different applications
History of the Ratio of Gold/Silver is in the mid teens currently it takes 58oz of silver to buy 1oz of gold
For you to win silver will have to appreciate 26% in 4 months, an impossible task only exceeded in the 1979 mania and right now silver is plunging.
You are so full of it Skol, silver has already appreciated over 30% in the last two months.
NB I am not making a prediction in this post just laughing at your stats.
You are so full of it Skol, silver has already appreciated over 30% in the last two months.
NB I am not making a prediction in this post just laughing at your stats.
You're not far off it, 22% to be exact, but as silver gets lower and lower the percentages increase. Good luck with your silver. It actually increased 147% in 4 months in 1979/80, just goes to show how punters who are obsessed with precious metals get carried away.
There's no accounting for taste.
JBmurc
14-09-2013, 02:36 PM
"Non-volatile memory is ubiquitous today as the storage technology at the heart of the over a trillion dollar electronics market – from tablets and USBsticks to enterprise storage systems," said Minassian in a prepared statement. "And yet, today's nonvolatile memory technologies are running out of steam, hitting significant barriers as they scale to smaller manufacturing processes. With our working Crossbar array, we have achieved all the major technical milestones that prove ourReRAM technology is easy to manufacture and ready for commercialization. It's a watershed moment for the non-volatile memory industry."
Other companies including Toshiba, Panasonic, HP, Micron and Samsung are also working on their own versions of ReRAMs, with many of their designs based on silver ions, too
http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/09.13/reram.html
From Kitco:
While silver is an industrial metal and should be immune from the FOMC’s decision, it can be fickle say analysts. “Silver does tag along with gold in terms of price movements,” said Erica Rannestad, commodity analyst for New-York based research firm, CPM Group. Though it could have different inflection points, she added. CPM Group does not anticipate any change in the asset purchase program this time around. That said, Rannestad still chimed in this forecast, “If there were to be a reduction in monthly purchases that would signal a strong economy and that could be bullish for silver.” But that is not the case right now, she added. “Industrial demand is pretty weak for silver. Electronic uses are suffering because of lower mobile phone sales and lower computer sales.” If there were to be a reduction Rannestad said silver would more likely move in tandem with gold and head lower.
The Fed non-move was a flash in the pan for silver, down 6.2%, now headed back to where it was.
JBmurc
23-09-2013, 10:00 AM
The Fed non-move was a flash in the pan for silver, down 6.2%, now headed back to where it was.
Keep it coming did a stock take on my Bullion holding as I sold a good portion at much higher levels ...currently.1178oz starting Oct I'll be buying once again $30oz NZD sounds good to me after selling nothing under $40 I remember selling my two 100oz bars 4500 ea .......overall average sell $45oz my average Buy cost was $26-27oz .....60%-70% profit ...be good to do the same this summer BUY low Sell some higher during Winter ,,,might get to a point where I hold 1000-2000oz for free
Better delay your buying, silver heading further south, which reminds me I don't see many bugs these days discussing buying all the different silver coins available at the Perth Mint. Kangaroos, horses, turtles, werewolves etc.
Rumour is they're minting one with a sheep on it, put your name down JB.
Hahaha
JBmurc
10-10-2013, 06:33 PM
Better delay your buying, silver heading further south, which reminds me I don't see many bugs these days discussing buying all the different silver coins available at the Perth Mint. Kangaroos, horses, turtles, werewolves etc.
Rumour is they're minting one with a sheep on it, put your name down JB.
Hahaha
Your the biggest bleater round here if I lose the bet I'll send you one LOL
Your guru, Jason Hommel, goes to jail.
http://silverdoctors.blogspot.co.nz/2011/10/silver-guru-jason-hommel-arrested-for.html
Silver Doctors 'restoring your financial health', more like destroying your financial wealth.
Notice the oblique attempt to blame it on the banksters and Obama, no wonder I can't resist the temptation to post here.
Your guru, Jason Hommel, goes to jail.
http://silverdoctors.blogspot.co.nz/2011/10/silver-guru-jason-hommel-arrested-for.html
Silver Doctors 'restoring your financial health', more like destroying your financial wealth.
Notice the oblique attempt to blame it on the banksters and Obama, no wonder I can't resist the temptation to post here.
The comments read like a script for a Jerry Springer episode.
You did note the dates though didn't you?
The comments read like a script for a Jerry Springer episode.
You did note the dates though didn't you?
Yes I did, but still worth noting I thought.
JBmurc
13-11-2013, 10:27 PM
U.S. Mint Year-To-Date Silver-Coin Sales Hit Record At 40.2 Million Ounces
By Neils Christensen Kitco News
Thursday November 7, 2013 4:14 PM
(Kitco News) - The U.S. Mint said Wednesday silver-coin sales year-to-date reached at record 40.175 million ounces, surpassing the previous record set in 2011.
With authorized purchasers ordering their full weekly allocation of 500,000 American Eagle one-ounce silver bullion coins, the previous record was broken.
“This surpasses the previous annual record sales of American Eagle one-ounce silver bullion coins of 39,868,500 for all of 2011,” the Mint said in a press release.
Not far to go now until silver gets back to the teens. The herd have been buying thinking the bottom's in.
Unfortunately for them they're miles out, like the chinese 'aunties' buying gold at exorbitant prices and now licking their wounds.
JBmurc
14-11-2013, 05:51 AM
Yes funny how investment buying at records worldwide + industry demand strong =lower prices thanks to paper traders
Yes funny how investment buying at records worldwide + industry demand strong =lower prices thanks to paper traders
Let me guess, it's 'manipulation', right? lol
The Ft report that the recent surge in silver sales is due to small investors piling in. You know who they are, right?
Correct, the retail mob, when they get in it's time to get out.
The Ft report that the recent surge in silver sales is due to small investors piling in. You know who they are, right?
Correct, the retail mob, when they get in it's time to get out.
So true. Silver goes sub-$20.
JBmurc
20-12-2013, 11:06 AM
WHAT DOES IT COSTS TO PRODUCE SILVER
http://srsroccoreport.com/what-did-it-cost-to-mine-silver-q3-2013/what-did-it-cost-to-mine-silver-q3-2013/
put this in context to the presents you buy for Xmas much of it made for a fraction of the cost you pay even at wholesale prices....
2014 esp the first half will see many of the biggest producer of silver put mines on C & M they are just losing to much selling below costs...the same will come for Gold ...Energy costs have stayed up hasn't helped
JBmurc
20-12-2013, 08:13 PM
What's the bet for 2014?
Silver Higher or lower than 2013 close which we will get 30th of this month currently just over $19oz USD so most likely it will be around this level which is fine by me as there's going be a raft of Silver mines closing in 2014 unless we see higher Silver price ....
-Bullion demand-
I see the US mint sold more Silver Eagles in 2013 (till end of NOV) than it did for all of 2011-12
all of the US silver production is being used as well as imports top up just to meet bullion demand
worldwide records were being broken in Silver bullion sales not just the USA ,,India,Germany etc
---yet paper prices has one of the worst years on record...
Industryl demand---Electronics is still one of the largest components of silver demand, accounting for more than 60% of the total industrial demand. The stronghold demand source of silver has been doing well over the past few years. Prior to the recession, the global market for electronic products was growing at an healthy annual average of about 13% Now if you believe in the Global growth going forward ??
p.s will be sending you through the $100 NZ mint voucher next week should get it well before the end of the year first time you really really deserved to win....oh make that New World voucher know how much you retired types love the spongy puds
Silver Higher or lower than 2013 close which we will get 30th of this month currently just over $19oz USD so most likely it will be around this level which is fine by me as there's going be a raft of Silver mines closing in 2014 unless we see higher Silver price ....
p.s will be sending you through the $100 NZ mint voucher next week should get it well before the end of the year
Mint voucher? What's that? Chocolate or peppermint? Not gold or silver OMG, you're going to punish me for winning again, it's a loser. A New World voucher would be better.
JBmurc
24-12-2013, 10:35 PM
President Lyndon Johnson said about silver when he signed the “Coinage Act of 1965″ — the act that removed silver from U.S. coins:
Now, all of you know these changes are necessary for a very simple reason–silver is a scarce material. Our uses of silver are growing as our population and our economy grows. The hard fact is that silver consumption is now more than double new silver production each year. So, in the face of this worldwide shortage of silver, and our rapidly growing need for coins, the only really prudent course was to reduce our dependence upon silver for making our coins.
1965?
Nearly 50 years ago and there's still no shortage, there's 10,000 tonnes of it in ishares Silver Trust alone.
JBmurc
27-12-2013, 08:11 PM
Silver oxide – for nearly a century it has powered performance batteries in items as small as a wrist watch and as large as a submarine. Over the years, and with rising silver prices it lost its luster and had to make room for cheaper substitutes in many applications. Recently, however, there have been technical developments suggesting it may make its return in a new way.
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Albrecht/2013-12-26-Z-Power-A-Renaissance-Of-Silver-Oxide.html
Industrial applications are why I prefer silver as an investment cf gold.
JBmurc
03-01-2014, 11:53 PM
What's the bet for 2014?
Right Silver finished at $19.37oz USD for 2013 one of the worst year in price performance in three decades ...yet record breaking for Silver bullion sales ...funny last time three decades ago Silver crashed so did bullion sales ?? not this time
bring on the turn-round ....currently Silver 20.20oz
http://www.silvercoinstoday.com/silver-prices-in-2013-mark-biggest-annual-decline-since-1981/109630/
JBmurc
16-01-2014, 11:18 PM
INSTITUTIONAL BUYING: The Coming Silver Game Changer
The key to investing in silver is getting in before the big gains are made. Even though the price of silver is up substantially in the past decade, it has only kept in par with the rise of the cost of energy.
http://srsroccoreport.com/institutional-buying-the-coming-silver-game-changer/institutional-buying-the-coming-silver-game-changer/
Not looking too flash JB.
JBmurc
22-01-2014, 06:15 PM
The author states that consumption/physical demand has no correlation to price and that oil price is the real driver for price rises/falls, then proceeds to say "if someone bought silver up and demanded delivery/Indian imports increase dramatically/fairies take control of the worlds stockpiles" that this could have a huge impact! Wow, talk about defeating your own thesis AND living in la la land!
$20 fall in oil pricea forecasted this year should see the last leg of gold and silver downwards then eh? Can't wait to see that blood all over the floor ;)
Forecast don't mean s@#t
But mines closing on the back of high energy costs
Do effect supply ...I see recent the worlds largest silver
Mine shut up shop ,,,,
JBmurc
22-01-2014, 10:55 PM
The author proved that the only thing that matters is the paper investments though. Find me a Wall Street trader that gives a stuff about mines closing and ill show you Scarlett Johansson pogo sticking naked down Main Street with a monkey playing the tambourine in tow...
Of Cause Wall Street traders don,t care never said they did,, if anything the paper traders short leverage to the physical metal clearly shows a complete disconnect from real world mining reality
We're running out of silver. lol
A clip on Fox News tonight about Odyssey Marine recovering 110 tonnes of silver from one shipwreck alone and apparently there's lots more out there waiting to be recovered by robots from miles down.
http://shipwreck.net/index.php
JBmurc
02-02-2014, 06:36 PM
We're running out of silver. lol
A clip on Fox News tonight about Odyssey Marine recovering 110 tonnes of silver from one shipwreck alone and apparently there's lots more out there waiting to be recovered by robots from miles down.
http://shipwreck.net/index.php
Wow thats like less than one month of US silver Eagles sales
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-01/u-s-mint-gold-coin-sales-jump-63-in-january-silver-triples.html
You know who buys silver coins? The retail mob, and when they get in it's time to get out.
Here's the silver chart, next move's downwards, silver is already 50c lower, below the trend line.
JBmurc
02-02-2014, 08:04 PM
Yes I agree T/A wise Silver doesn't look good currently but you must least agree fundamentally demand from industry for planes , Iphones pads laptops , cars , houses etc ...basically electrics (as Silver is the best transmitter of electric current some 140 times better than your standard high voltage lines) ....now I believe in technology will grow just has fast as it has in my short life 20yrs ago I didn't own much outside a old PC an tube tv these days Mysky,Iphone,laptop,Ipod,plasma etc then you have the largest demand in the history of silver bullion yet it's not got a bullish future ???
JBmurc
17-02-2014, 02:17 PM
5492
Silver Booming of late starting the year just over $19oz USD now on a tear $21oz >>>$22 only the start of this next bull trend 30+ coming soon
Silver doing a lot worse than gold. How's those 1500 ounces JB?
No end in sight.
JBmurc
16-04-2014, 09:50 PM
Bumping along on it's lows Skol I only hope I increase my position before it starts to move north again.. last time I counted I had round 1100oz sold a part of my holding round $40oz (damm new house going over budget) now thinking about selling the house after 3yrs to move to a more rural address round 45 arces of stunning Central otago land build another 300-400sqm family home ...should have a few spare dollars to add to my position then as we will be debt free would be good to add to our Silver Bullion Kiwi saver plan 10-20oz per month would be good
Silver, the worst investment on Earth?
Beagle
01-05-2014, 05:56 PM
I have ten 1 Kg silver bars. Happy to let a few go notwithstanding the current very low spot price plus only a 4% handling fee. Try buying a 1Kg bar from a silver dealer and see what premium they ask just for melting the stuff into a bar for you plus their pretty outrageous sales commission.
PM me if interested. Fair to say I've lost interest in this poorly performing investment.
JBmurc
06-05-2014, 03:09 PM
5783
The Silver Bear trend coming to a end
Yes Skol triple bottom in your chart = strong support to bounce higher of once the selling suppression lifts
"the selling suppression" lol
That's a hardy annual from the goldbugs, whose fault is it this time? Which bankster?
This is a classic boom and bust chart. The first sell-off, the spike to the 'new paradigm', the bull trap and the final decline to the mean.
It's not over yet.
JBmurc
11-05-2014, 04:26 PM
LOL so ya saying $19 is the new mean ? thats was overpriced in your words few years ago ..funny that ...looking forward to the next bull move off this mean $100+oz
LOL so ya saying $19 is the new mean ? thats was overpriced in your words few years ago ..funny that ...looking forward to the next bull move off this mean $100+oz
I said "it's not over yet".
JBmurc
11-05-2014, 05:48 PM
I said "it's not over yet".
well it seems it is over for many Silver producers/explorers even at this so called "mean" price....CCU AYN SVL ARD all look goneski on the ASX in the same country as the world's biggest Silver Mine-Cannington,,funny that...(Cannington life span looks finished by 2023) Only the very biggest of Silver mines with major Lead,Zinc credits can keep afloat
-Industry demand hasn't changed much at all over recent years ....Investment keeps hitting new records ...yet the paper price has been smashed....
-Interesting piece on the net-
The world could do without gold far more easily than silver no litany of reasons should be necessary here. Silver has disappeared from above ground and below ground sources. The only place on Earth silver occurs at depth comparable to gold is in Idaho where earthquake activity jumbled the strata. Silver is deposited "epithermally," meaning relatively near surface. The Comstock lode, Cerro Rico in Bolivia and other major sources are long since depleted---Cannington cannot keep pace; Pascua Llama can't be developed, Pitarilla is years away.. Demand will dictate price of silver/gold and this is why the natural ratio will have to take over. Return of monetary demand will soar over industrial demand like a basketball player over an embryo. Legislation by governments can't do anything about the periodic table of elements, depletion of epithermal silver
Triangle Pattern On Silver Is Pointing $14
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DHX0Dpu67qk
says this guy
Hey JB,
What's the cost of extracting silver per ounce, on average?
JBmurc
13-05-2014, 10:44 PM
Hey JB,
What's the cost of extracting silver per ounce, on average?
Well there's the pure silver producer companies telling the market they can produce $7-$8
then there's the fact when the same company fin-report show a loss to break-even numbers >>true cost $18oz-$30oz+
IMHO it's total BS that any producer that isn't making a profit yet stating they can produce well below metal price.....
Now where the vast bulk of Silver comes from is as a bi-product or as a metal credit from major Base metal miners
It's all about how much money's worth of metal you get from the ore .....history is showing a ever decreasing grade per ton
http://srsroccoreport.com/silver-eagles-steal-the-show-while-top-silver-miners-lose-money/silver-eagles-steal-the-show-while-top-silver-miners-lose-money/
http://srsroccoreport.com/the-grand-deception-in-the-precious-metals-industry/the-grand-deception-in-the-precious-metals-industry/
http://srsroccoreport.com/canadian-silver-production-down-signficantly/canadian-silver-production-down-signficantly/
http://srsroccoreport.com/the-dark-side-of-the-silver-mining-industry/the-dark-side-of-the-silver-mining-industry/
The fact is if Silver was so cheap to produce why isn't there any pure Silver miners doing well or even keeping afloat on the ASX ??? AYN CCU both failed many explorers close to bust..
the ASX lists the third biggest silver producer -- BHP....as it produces lead along with the silver..huge operation..
JB,
Thanks, Daryl Guppy say if silver breaks $18.70 next target is $11.30.
JBmurc
15-05-2014, 12:07 PM
JB,
Thanks, Daryl Guppy say if silver breaks $18.70 next target is $11.30.
Well if it did I,d be loading up the safe with least a couple thousand oz extra bullion
Money for jam in the years ahead
Silver sub $19. Here it comes.
JBmurc
29-05-2014, 09:15 PM
Silver sub $19. Here it comes.
Yes 18.88... last I looked going for a triple bottom before take-off
Yes 18.88... last I looked going for a triple bottom before take-off
I'd call it a descending triangle that will breakout in the direction of the original trend - downwards.
A descending triangle, the breakout downwards not far off. $18.74, may have already started.
Daryl Guppy says where silver goes, gold will follow.
JBmurc
17-06-2014, 09:36 AM
Definition of 'Triple Bottom'
A pattern used in technical analysis to predict the reversal of a prolonged downtrend. The pattern is identified when the price of an asset creates three troughs at nearly the same price level. The third bounce off the support is an indication that buying interest (demand) is outweighing selling interest (supply) and that the trend is in the process of reversing......
1yr Silver shows clearly a solid $19 triple bottom>>>>>>showing a strong support base at these levels
Here's 2 charts, COT, managed money tend to be long, producers tend to be short, both are going in the wrong direction for silver.
JBmurc
22-06-2014, 08:37 AM
$20.88oz be good to see this move continue to a breakout level ....T/A wise this was a major break of the long term downtrend ...bring on the new Bull trend to $30+
GTM 3442
29-06-2014, 06:00 PM
So, team, how do I go about laying hands on a few kilograms of silver to slip into the bottom drawer ?
No interest in miners, or in shares, or in paying someone to store the stuff, or in "certificates of deposit" or whatever, just lumps of shiny shiny metal to pull out and stroke when I'm feeling low.
Contact the above J B Murc, he was headed towards 2000 ounces when despite repeated warnings the worm turned. I think he's selling, you're buying.
JBmurc
30-06-2014, 09:58 AM
Contact the above J B Murc, he was headed towards 2000 ounces when despite repeated warnings the worm turned. I think he's selling, you're buying.
LOL sold 30-40% of my holding av. just under $40oz NZD (round 60% return 2-3yrs hold)
like you GTM I'm a buyer at these levels ..and if we sell our property I'd be ringing NZ mint ,Regal,NZ Gold merchants in Auckland and buying least 2000oz ....about as safe as investment as you get ...
Yes Roger had some for sale give him a PM
JBmurc
23-07-2014, 10:28 PM
Another why to invest into Silver without the risk of the companies trying to produce at these low levels or explorers that bleed cash
-ETPMAG.ASX
Current SP- $21.62
JBmurc
05-08-2014, 10:56 PM
The Bank of Nova Scotia, along with Deutsche Bank and HSBC, has been accused of fixing the price of trillions of dollars worth of silver.
In a court case filed in New York's southern district Monday, J. Scott Nicholson filed suit against the three banks for allegedly rigging the price of silver and in the process, making money at the expense of smaller investors.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/scotiabank-2-other-banks-accused-of-rigging-silver-price-1.2720027
Who is J. Scott Nicholson, someone like Ron Paul?
Conspiracies around every corner.
Given up on it yet JB?
It's a dead duck buddy.
JBmurc
03-09-2014, 01:06 PM
Keeps above $19.37oz USD at the end of 2014 trading I'll be happy .....5 more years to see if my long term bullion hold was a silly move ...was always a 10yr hold
If silver breaks $18.70, the next stop is $11.30 according to Daryl Guppy.
Beagle
09-09-2014, 05:21 PM
LOL sold 30-40% of my holding av. just under $40oz NZD (round 60% return 2-3yrs hold)
like you GTM I'm a buyer at these levels ..and if we sell our property I'd be ringing NZ mint ,Regal,NZ Gold merchants in Auckland and buying least 2000oz ....about as safe as investment as you get ...
Yes Roger had some for sale give him a PM
I've changed my mind and am no longer interested in selling at these prices, great long term hold. Its only a small part of my portfolio, (and getting smaller as I make money elsewhere), so I'm now quite relaxed about holding.
Down she goes, next stop $11.30?
JBmurc
22-09-2014, 06:50 PM
Hope it does then I will buy a few monster box's of maples / eagles cheaper than the muti billion dollar producers can produce them for (have already heard margins are starting to head up).....can't be far away to seeing many of the 12 major Silver producers hit the wall ...
should dent production and lead to shortages 2015-16+ much like the nickel market is heading >>>>
IMHO the next Resource Boom is just round the corner....esp for Silver , Nickel
Backin' the truck up. Good luck with that one.
Looks like you could have ample opprtunity to back the truck up JB.
http://moneyweek.com/how-low-can-gold-and-silver-price-go/
JBmurc
28-09-2014, 06:35 PM
At the end of the article ............
So, despite my overwhelmingly bearish article, the conclusion I draw is that gold will stay above $1,000, even if silver plummets from here.
So what do you do? Investment decisions you make from here should be based on your timeframe and circumstances. The MoneyWeek house view is that gold is a good diversifier for your portfolio and a good insurance holding, so you should have about 5% of your money in it regardless.
No bottom in sight at the moment.
Just waiting for the panic button to get hit when gold breaks $1180. With QE ending, the reason gold was pumped so much, and the US economy and dollar strengthing every week, it's only a matter of time. I think this week coming will get extremely ugly...
JBmurc
05-10-2014, 08:25 PM
Yes in the Short term if 1180 breaks it will be very dire and will likely see it smash to 1050oz etc ....but on the bright side the AUS producers are also getting smashed like they sell and report in USD and not AUD and the USD/AUD continues to go in their favour I'll be happy to get them for penny's in the dollar while they still make a good profit ,,,,plus a few Monster box's of 1oz Silver rounds will be very sweet round 10k NZD ea ....
Still on the bright side my only PM share CVR has raised the funds needed to re-list and the house has by the latest Q.V increased in value by another 100k
Yes in the Short term if 1180 breaks it will be very dire and will likely see it smash to 1050oz etc ....but on the bright side the AUS producers are also getting smashed like they sell and report in USD and not AUD....be stoked if the house sells soon good to see the latest
QV rv.. just went up 100k ....do have some very interested buyers
If gold gets to $1050 it doesn't matter what currency you're in you're going to get a thrashing, now that gold could be on the brink of a collapse the goldbugs wheel out Rule No. 11 of the 12 golden rules of goldbuggery.
---------------
11. Gold is always rallying in one currency or another: Sure, it may be down 40% in Dollars, the reserve currency it is priced in, but you can always find a currency falling faster than it does and claim you own it in that denomination. Last week, it was up in Japanese Yen. This week, it is up in Zimbabwe dollars.
----------------
It's like a dummy or a comfort blanket, it makes them feel good and bad things might not happen.
Hope you're saving up for the end of year bet JB, this one's in the bag.
JBmurc
05-10-2014, 08:40 PM
Really Skol well as working in the export sector my wage is directly affected by the AUD/NZD rate ....just like many of the ASX miners are affected by the USD/AUD .....now sometimes this can be offset by the likes of the Oil/fuel price heading much higher as your dollar loses value to the USD ...but in the present case OIL has been smashed quite a bit as well....
Now if we are purely talking about Media driven fear yes the USD price will badly affect investors sentiment towards even the most cashed up profitable PM producer thats just the old FEAR/GREED emotions ....but the actual bottom line of many the producers well as long as they haven't got major CAPEX spend in USD they shouldn't be affected cashflow /profit wise
Let's see what happens to the XGD today, a bloodbath I reckon.
Daytr
06-10-2014, 08:26 AM
I thought this was a silver thread!
JBmurc
23-10-2014, 11:22 AM
Silver Eagles & Maples may be also set a new all-time record surpassing last year’s total.... going from recent sales so much for investors running away from the PM's ....
http://srsroccoreport.com/october-silver-eagle-sales-best-ever-and-with-10-days-remaining/october-silver-eagle-sales-best-ever-and-with-10-days-remaining/
aussiesilver
30-10-2014, 08:59 PM
New member here from Australia,just read the last 66 pages and looked at all the graphs and chit chat. Love Silver that's why 'im here to learn
$16.47, on its way to $11.30. (initially)
aussiesilver
01-11-2014, 10:54 AM
How are the premiums over in New Zealand with the price coming down over the last few days,are dealers premiums as quick to drop. Here in Australia things tend to move a little slower when the prices head south but jump in leaps and bounds when it heads north.
JBmurc
01-11-2014, 09:16 PM
How are the premiums over in New Zealand with the price coming down over the last few days,are dealers premiums as quick to drop. Here in Australia things tend to move a little slower when the prices head south but jump in leaps and bounds when it heads north.
Going find out soon if our house sale goes through I'll be happy to buy back the oz I sold mostly round $40oz NZD hoping to get a couple monster boxes for 20k ...$20oz NZD well below most major miners AISC
Going find out soon if our house sale goes through I'll be happy to buy back the oz I sold mostly round $40oz NZD hoping to get a couple monster boxes for 20k ...$20oz NZD well below most major miners AISC
Good luck with that one, gold and silver are in for a beating.
Good luck with that one, gold and silver are in for a beating.
Back zee truck up, plenty of "monsters" to be had ahead!
corran
02-11-2014, 05:14 PM
Good luck with that one, gold and silver are in for a beating.
How low do you reckon gold and silver will go skol?
JBmurc
02-11-2014, 05:17 PM
Back zee truck up, plenty of "monsters" to be had ahead!
Yes certainly happy to diverse my funds around ....looking forward I'll be happy to get back to 2000oz Silver with a couple monster boxes to go along with spec property project in Qutown and Cash Deposit + ASX miners + land for next spec or hold ...and even looking to get back into NZX yield plays
How low do you reckon gold and silver will go skol?
Very low, if JB Murc is buying then keep clear, when he sells his last ounce of silver, then it might be time to dip your toes in the water.
corran
02-11-2014, 08:19 PM
Very low, if JB Murc is buying then keep clear, when he sells his last ounce of silver, then it might be time to dip your toes in the water.
What is very low skol? Under $5 USD, under $10 USD? for silver.
JBmurc
02-11-2014, 09:20 PM
Very low, if JB Murc is buying then keep clear, when he sells his last ounce of silver, then it might be time to dip your toes in the water.
LOL so when I sold pretty much half of my holding average aka 1000oz ....@ av. $40oz NZD you think that was a BUY signal ????
Your head is getting so BIG it's about to POP !! ....If Gold heads below $1000oz USD then you are right....As this is when you called it WELL over brought Bubble territory yes you continue to bleat on about the Bubble 1000oz-1910oz till it did have a massive correction and move into a strong Bear trend ....that doesn't mean it will continue to fall well below costs to mine on and on just because old skol and the Anti-Gold PM crowd say it will ....as the demand esp. for silver bullion in the states has been going nuts of late OCT looks to be a record breaker .....
-He's a little fact on another PM palladium , It refuses to crash. Consider that it is not apparently subject to futures shorting on the Comex the way gold and silver is leveraged 100:1 etc a pure play toy of the traders .....Palladium an industry metal just like Silver (but with a much longer resource life on current usage)
The demand for gold coins is down 47% this year at the US Mint, so not sure where you get the idea that there's a huge demand.
There was a spike in 'poor man's gold' coins in Oct, probably a one-off, otherwise the price tells the story.
aussiesilver
04-11-2014, 01:11 PM
American Silver Eagle sales for the month of October were at 5,790,000 Total sales for the year should beat last years mintage of approx 42million. If the price sticks around these levels or continues to slide mintage figures will surpass 2014 Cost of silver is around $16 to get it out of the ground
Just like oil and Gold--sooner or later the laws of physics will have to catch up as the cost of production is very near selling price--Mr Market and phsycology can keep things going for sometimes a while but sooner or later....
Just like oil and Gold--sooner or later the laws of physics will have to catch up as the cost of production is very near selling price--Mr Market and phsycology can keep things going for sometimes a while but sooner or later....
We won't run out of gold, silver, water, trees, oil, food, fish, uranium or anything else, you've got my word on it.
"we're running out of..........." is a hardy annual pushed by goldbugs, peak oilers and greenies.
JBmurc
07-11-2014, 03:05 PM
Yeah right ...If you took all the Silver in the world currently is valued round 15 - billion .....thats peanuts
-Tell me this Skol the US mint has run out of silver eagles .. the Pert mint is at it's busiest in years yet the Silver price is crashing
-Is the World Consumers of second most used commodity (in different applications) dropping dramatically ....No it's not ...
-this Crash in Oil Silver gold etc it's all just part of a Commodity War between Nations ....BHP RIO etc come out and state they will increase production to hurt other producers ....the same with the Saudi's ......Silver Shorts are at record highs ...
where this all ends up is anyone's guess ....but I'm more than happy to buy more of the real metal to keep longer term
JB,
You were banging on years ago about running out of gold and silver.
And have we?
Of course not.
JBmurc
07-11-2014, 05:39 PM
JB,
You were banging on years ago about running out of gold and silver.
And have we?
Of course not.
Was never going to happen overnight (never said we would run out of GOLD) but the fact remains world production round 800moz world demand over 1bill oz .....even after Silver hit record highs ..now at current levels I don't think many pure Silver miners(third of production) will be producing for much longer >>>
then you add in the fact US investors bought 90% of the daily global mine supply in Silver Eagles on wednesday ..... just shows how small the market is...and soon how tight supply will become
JBmurc
13-11-2014, 08:24 PM
http://www.firstmajestic.com/s/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=683054&_Type=News-Releases&_Title=First-Majestic-Reports-Third-Quarter-Financial-Results
Q3 report
Major US silver producer - Silver Ounces Produced 2,680,439
-All-in sustaining cost ("AISC") was $19.89 per payable silver ounce, up 9% from the prior quarter.
disc - I love to buy PM under costs to mine ....no brainer
"...diligence is required to remain focused on bringing all cost structures down to 2006 levels. I'm confident that the changes currently underway in our business will allow us to produce profitable ounces in this lower metal price environment."
Doesn't this fact fly straight in the face of theory that "under $XX.XX p/oz miners will go to the wall"? If there's so much meat that can be cut don't you think lower prices are much more likely to be here to stay? I for one would be very angry at miners who let costs skyrocket in a bubble, then refused to hedge or even begin to cut costs when the bubbe burst! These producers are going to be learning a hard lesson that "just when you hought it couldn't go lower... it will".
http://www.firstmajestic.com/s/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=683054&_Type=News-Releases&_Title=First-Majestic-Reports-Third-Quarter-Financial-Results
Q3 report
Major US silver producer - Silver Ounces Produced 2,680,439
-All-in sustaining cost ("AISC") was $19.89 per payable silver ounce, up 9% from the prior quarter.
disc - I love to buy PM under costs to mine ....no brainer
Piling back into the silver coins JB?
JBmurc
14-11-2014, 08:13 PM
Piling back into the silver coins JB?
Not yet but we our close to a deal on our Qtn property ...likely invest round 10% of the profit from the sale into bullion should get me another 1000oz
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