Hi Ho "SILVER"

[Entrep]

I've traded the AGQ ETF in the US a few times... its bascially halved in value in a matter of days!

[Huang Chung]

Skol...gold is still nearly $1,500 an oz, and silver north of $40.

Will probably sell off some more, but we need to keep some perspective here folks....

[upside_umop]

3372

Ouch. Silver is $35ish now isn't is HC. Gold is $1471.

[Huang Chung]

My bad...silver north of $30

[JBmurc]

The party's definitely over, full crash mode for silver. $36 and still going, almost vertical. Down 9%.

You should be in boots and all JB.

USD is way up.


Enjoy it while it lasts skol yeah if real silver bullion is going stupid cheap I'll be buying,the party is far from over for PGM's just remember the last big correction
Facts remain ...watched Jim rogers on CNBC yesterday very smart man,he like myself didn't want to see silver go parabolic which would mean the bull run was over
he also was very negative on the UK-US etc economies i.e do
still the current pullback has been far more than I expected but by july IMHO we will be back in the high 40's if not higher the fundamentals will shine through all the B.S
Silver's Dip will be Brief!
(Silver prices are in an anti-bubble!)
Silver Stock Report
by Jason Hommel, May 5th, 2011 Grass Valley, CA

For more of my commentary and links, follow me on Facebook.
http://www.facebook.com/jason.hommel


Silver dipped below $36/oz. this morning, down about 8% from yesterday, and down about 27% from the high last week of about $49.50/ per troy ounce. (A Troy oz. is about 10% heavier than a the more common international avoirdupois ounce.)

Some people are saying "this is like 1980 all over again" and that silver will now crash. Nothing could be further than the truth.

The truth is that the amount of money they have printed up since 1980 is ten times higher, so if you adjust for inflation, the peak price from 1980 should be more like $500/oz. in today's dollars.

The next key difference is that in 1980, interest rates, the amount paid on bonds, rose to over 20% per year. Today, interest rates are close to zero. Interest rates make holding bonds more attractive.

The next thing is that the US government money printing driven inflation is just beginning, it's not remotely close to ending. The US annual budget is about $3.8 trillion, and the government collects about $2.2 trillion, leaving a gap of about $1.6 trillion that is met by money printing, which makes the value of the dollar go down. (http://tinyurl.com/3ozdljx (April 7th news item))

$1.6 trillion of new money can also expressed as $1600 billion, or $1,600,000 million.

For comparison's sake, new investment demand for physical silver last year was only 250 million ounces, at, let's say an average of $35/oz., was just under $9 billion, or only $9000 million.

Silver is not in a bubble in terms of prices.

The bubble in stocks in 1929 was caused by debt financing.

The bubble in housing in 2007 was caused by debt financing.

You cannot borrow money to buy silver. Thus, silver is NOT in a bubble.

Exceptions: Yes, you can borrow money to speculate in silver, but no silver is ever purchased at the time that you purchase futures, or options on silver. And the futures market is known for having an overall open interest of over 800 million oz. of silver, while less than 40 million oz. of silver are available for delivery!

Yes, also certain private firms, who have horrible reputations in my opinion, will let you borrow money "to buy silver", but you must keep the silver with them, and it's doubtful that they ever actually purchase the real silver either.

In silver's case, the availability of debt, and use of leverage is used to prevent you, distract you, dissuade you, from actually buying silver. This makes silver an "anti-bubble"; the opposite of a bubble.

This article claims that silver was worth about $1218/oz. in the Ancient Roman World!
http://networkedblogs.com/hojgP

One article last week noted that "8 years of global Silver supply changed hands last week". He could not calculate how much silver traded hands in the OTC or "over the counter" markets that are unreported and unregulated, which are typically 20 times larger than the visible markets like the COMEX and the ETFs.

That article shows that the amount of paper trading of silver has recently grown to perhaps 1000 times larger than the real silver market.

At last week's rate of about one year of global silver supply traded in a day, with 250 trading days in a year, suggests 250 times as much paper silver trading than real silver, but that's not counting the much larger OTC markets.

Again, with all the flurry of news articles on silver this last month, nobody has mentioned the BIS report that I've highlighted for the past 1-2 years that shows that world banks have liabilities (that's debts) in "other precious metals" (mostly silver) of anywhere from $100 to $200 billion, and that was way back when silver was $20/oz. That's about 15 years of annual world production, with swings into and out of the banking system of 8 years of annual production in less than 6 months.

Thus, mostly all of the silver in all major LBMA banks in the world is thus likely fake silver, all fraudulent paper silver, nothing is real there. I would love to know how much real silver they do have, as obviously, they have to have at least some silver to function with their "fractional reserve silver banking" that they do.

Thus if a bank holds your silver, I'm 99% certain that they don't physically hold YOUR silver for you, and that you know nothing about the real fundamentals of the silver market.

When you read that an commentator or analyst is "long SLV" you can know for certain that that commentator knows almost nothing about the silver market.

When debt is used to actually buy real silver, the extra buying would artificially push the price up.

When banks actually owe silver that they neglected to actually purchase, their lack of buying artificially pushes the price down.

Again, silver is the opposite of a bubble.

People have not yet learned that silver is payment in full. Silver is not a promise to be paid. Owning a promise to be paid in silver is about as bad as owning paper dollars -- the value of both of which has (primarily and fundamentally) only one way to go, which is down.

Government is in a bubble. US paper money is in a bubble. The US bond market remains in a bubble.

Somebody just posted to my facebook, "everybody is selling out", "Soros is selling his gold", etc.

No, the opposite is true. Nobody was ever in.

The real fundamentals of silver show that less than 6% of 1% of paper money in the USA even bought any real silver last year.

That means that silver buying would have to be 20 times more, just to get to about 1% of people buying silver!

Silver the opposite of a bubble. This dip will be brief. Silver at $200/oz. is still a "price dip" compared to where the silver price is headed.


=====

I strongly advise you to take possession of real gold and silver, at anywhere near today's prices, while you still can. The fundamentals indicate rising prices for decades to come, and a major price spike can happen at any time.

[Skol]

Yeah I've just read some stuff by your 'psychic' Jason Hommel.

He say it's not a 1980 redux, it's different this time. Really?

If the USD keeps appreciating it hasn't even started, gold will be next.

[STRAT]

Volume in silver has gone exponential, so a possible top is in sight. I'm quite prepared to take the flak if I'm wrong. I've warned of a bubble, but now I'm warning of a top.
One of the beauties of a bubble is that other opportunities will have been overlooked.

If trillions of dollars exits precious metals, where will it go?

Stocks, property, cash, bonds, farmland, corn, uranium, etc?Now thats timing.

Right on the mark there Skol :t_up:

[Huang Chung]

Now thats timing.

Right on the mark there Skol :t_up:

Problem is that Skol warns of a top every second day of the week. Eventually he has to get SOMETHING right....

[Skol]

Problem is that Skol warns of a top every second day of the week. Eventually he has to get SOMETHING right....

I warned of a bubble, not of a top until a few days ago. I sold silver, bet I got absolute top dollar.

Early this morning one website said there was a very strong support level at $36. Bounced off once then straight through, so there's probably worse to come.

[Skol]

If silver was $30 then it would still have gone up 7 times in 8 years, too risky for me.

If I was in AYN, I'd bail out; today. I've just had a look at the chart.



Maybe I'm the one that's psychic, I told shasta to bail out of this one on the 15/4.

[JBmurc]

$26.70oz USD kitco is the set price for a new 2011 bet I have with SKOL the prize a round about $100 bottle of wine of the losers choosing(skol a reds fine by me)

Will the Silver price crash back to the teens by the end of 2011

IMHO no Silver will be much higher my prediction over $40oz USD

Well worth a read --
http://www.industrymailout.com/Industry/View.aspx?id=245442&q=264546678&qz=3f9465

Current Silver price $34.68oz USD nearly half-way so let me guess you believe silver will be priced sub $20 skol if your psychic please enlighten us

[evilroyrule]

Maybe I'm the one that's psychic, I told shasta to bail out of this one on the 15/4.

skol, ayn will be up at least 30-40% today. but yes, i will be out depending on how far she goes today. markets not a good place to be at the mo me thinks

[Skol]

Current Silver price $34.68oz USD nearly half-way so let me guess you believe silver will be priced sub $20 skol if your psychic please enlighten us

I will consult the Oracle and let you know, but quite busy for the next few days, work beckons.

I've been hammered and ridiculed by the goldbugs for owning boring TLS shares which I purchased at pretty low levels, 11% DY. Which would you sooner own at the moment? Up 14% in the last couple of weeks, not likely to make heaps but not likely to crash either.

I notice on one website some dude asking for the address of the nearest bullion dealer, buy or sell you reckon?

[MANDRAKE]

7200 NZD for 100 oz.. Tell em e's dreamn'

[JBmurc]

skol, ayn will be up at least 30-40% today. but yes, i will be out depending on how far she goes today. markets not a good place to be at the mo me thinks

yeah crazy D&D report must have put the spot light on AYN

[drillfix]

Here is a chart of good ole silver.

Silver daily and weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/bgu9yl7vv9my2ybbtbzq_Silver.png

Support level obvious but should they fail, look for the range somewhere in the drawn box for next potential targets

Cheers~!


Looks like the obvious has unfolded.

Question now is after the sell off, will there be a bounce in the previous posted chart with the commented Boxes where drawn in the previous post? Who knows but we can view matters in more detail over the weekend, for those who wish to add summaries or speculate.

[drillfix]

7200 NZD for 100 oz.. Tell em e's dreamn'

LOL Mandrake, classic (the castle)

What a joke, that would mean he is asking for $72 dollars/oz

They never even wrote Negotiable on it so he is selling Jim Rogers long term fantasy in the current market. Perhaps he badly needs the money to see his shrink to why he is selling over priced silver. :)

[STRAT]

Problem is that Skol warns of a top every second day of the week. Eventually he has to get SOMETHING right....Hi HC.
I dont follow this thread too close but I thought it was a bubble hes been calling over the last few years.

Anyway bit of a bounce today with POG and POS.

Im waiting for Skol to call the bottom. Was it this morning?

[Skol]

Im waiting for Skol to call the bottom. Was it this morning?

Nope. After the 1980 crash silver bottomed out 2.5 years later.

[STRAT]

7200 NZD for 100 oz.. Tell em e's dreamn'Just had a look at other silver on Trade me and some of the bids are nothing short of remarkable.

JB you need to get on there mate. Youll make a killing :D

[drillfix]

Got a link there Strat?

And does the seller have a rating or has he a zero rating with a shed full of painted LED bars lol :)

[drillfix]

Here is a quick snapshot of the Spot Silver price as follows:

http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/1gqunnrz0en87sa2n34_Spot-Silver.png


It looks like it may have taken a break from the fall or short sellers are buying back to cover.

Would expect a test of at least $36.xx and surpassing that I would put a $37.4x approximate target on it should it surpass that previous resistance. Yet failing that back to the bottom support levels shown in the daily intraday chart.

[JBmurc]

Just had a look at other silver on Trade me and some of the bids are nothing short of remarkable.

JB you need to get on there mate. Youll make a killing :D

yeah I like to use the momssilvershop in the US to compare prices fair Vs overpriced etc currently you can buy a new 1oz for 53-54oz NZD this includes freight
so the guys paying $70oz here is just crazy , I actually did just sell one 1kg perth mint bar yesterday on sella (trademe commission is like 5%+) and I got $1800 or $56 oz I paid $750 for the bar round 2yrs ago
Don't know if it really worth the stuff round for a couple dollars an oz esp as I'm holding long term Only sold the one bar to buy a new Mac Air laptop

[Skol]

As gold and silver fall the ETF's unload gold and silver, what happens to it? Is it on the market, thousands of tonnes of it, further depressing prices?

As PMs fall and I believe they will fall a lot further, will any fraud be discovered? Fraud will depress the price as well.
Just like Ray Smith's Goldcorp in 1987, Madoff, Lehmans and all the property shenanigans after the GFC. You can bet lots of goldbugs have geared up thinking they can't lose, dumping it at any price to get out.

[JBmurc]

As gold and silver fall the ETF's unload gold and silver, what happens to it? Is it on the market, thousands of tonnes of it, further depressing prices?

As PMs fall and I believe they will fall a lot further, will any fraud be discovered? Fraud will depress the price as well.
Just like Ray Smith's Goldcorp in 1987, Madoff, Lehmans and all the property shenanigans after the GFC. You can bet lots of goldbugs have geared up thinking they can't lose, dumping it at any price to get out.

IMHO we have hit bottom for this large breather onwards the PGM bull wil run .

[Skol]

IMHO we have hit bottom for this large breather onwards the PGM bull wil run .

Keep those rose-tinted glasses on, nothing goes down in a straight line, a breather before the next onslaught.

[JBmurc]

Keep those rose-tinted glasses on, nothing goes down in a straight line, a breather before the next onslaught.

Haven't got any, maybe I could borrow yours then I could believe a country with ten times more debt than savings is in healthy shape.
And that when a person in major power of world money supply states there is no credit problems only weeks before a massive credit meltdown isn't a complete fool and listen to him again and again..

[Huang Chung]

Hi HC.
I dont follow this thread too close but I thought it was a bubble hes been calling over the last few years.

Anyway bit of a bounce today with POG and POS.

Im waiting for Skol to call the bottom. Was it this morning?

Fair call, he has been calling it a bubble.

Nice to see a bounceback in the precious metals after the sell off.

[Skol]

There's an excellent front-page article in today's WSJ about the silver crash entitled:

SILVER-MAD SMALL INVESTORS FUELED AN EPIC RISE AND FALL.

It tells about the torment of some 'investors' or maybe I could, less gratuitously call them suckers. One dude bought silver last week and says "I don't understand, silver is supposed to do very well this year. I've been hearing that silver could go up to $150 this year".

One trader says "If gold is a Monte Carlo casino, silver is a slot machine in Las Vegas".

The silver shortage is officially over if there ever was one JB, which I doubt.

WSJ says:
'More than 36 million oz of silver has been dumped into the market between April 26 through this past Thursday, more silver than all the American Eagle silver coins that investors bought from the US mint last year.'

and,

'Silver ETF's favoured by many individuals, have suffered among the most pain, and there are more signs investors are getting out.'

and;

'Behind silver's historic collapse is a market that came loose of its moorings , fueled by speculative traders, many of them small investors who may have jumped in at just the wrong moment.'

and;

'John Burbank, who runs hedge fund Passport Capital in San Francisco, became a fan of PMs in 2002. Earlier this year, however, he sold his entire $150m stash of gold, convinced the Fed won't extend it's so-called QE beyond June..
"Silver prices have been parabolic, but the time to buy again will be months away", he says.'

The article says Soros and other major players are out because the Fed has the economy under control and there will be neither deflation nor inflation.

One retiree has 60% of her net worth in silver. She won't be the only one, I've read about punters who've sold the house, the car, the lot and it's all in PM.

36,000,000 ounces = 1028 tonnes, right? In 8 trading days = 4.5m oz/day being sold.

Say $45 X 36,000,000 = US$1,620,000,000. Where will it all go?

[JBmurc]

The article says Soros and other major players are out because the Fed has the economy under control and there will be neither deflation nor inflation
--Yeah yeah that's why for this year they will be yet another trillion in the hole adding to the 14 they already have the way the US is going they'll soon be lucky just to pay the interest on the debt
while china has over a trillion USD in credit and openly encourages its citizens to buy PGM esp Silver the further PGM's fall the bigger the disconnect between physical and paper prices...is why the July Silver long contract is growing massively at these lower prices could well default the comex if they all ask for delivery

[Skol]

You and all the rest of the goldbugs need to stop banging on about debt, the Fed, China, comex, PIIGS, Bernanke, manipulators, JP Morgan and the rest of the fatuous reasons for gold and silver to 'go to the moon'.

All it needs to crash is sentiment, nothing else.

4,500,000 ounces of silver being sold each day, what do you think's going to happen?

[JBmurc]

You and all the rest of the goldbugs need to stop banging on about debt, the Fed, China, comex, PIIGS, Bernanke, manipulators, JP Morgan and the rest of the fatuous reasons for gold and silver to 'go to the moon'.

All it needs to crash is sentiment, nothing else.

4,500,000 ounces of silver being sold each day, what do you think's going to happen?

4.5mill of paper silver

http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/11/05/1058182/looking-for-the-silver-lining

Effective after the close of business Thursday, the CME Group Inc.'s (NasdaqGS: CME) initial margin requirements, which is the minimum amount of cash that must be deposited when borrowing from your broker to trade silver, will be increasing to $18,900 per futures contract, up from $16,200(on 5/2). This is a huge increase from about a year ago when the margin required was $4,250. This latest margin hike is the fourth in less than two weeks and as I am hearing it they are announcing another hike for Monday(5/9) to $21,600, which would be the 5th in 3 weeks. I can understand why the CME would raise margins with silver flying as raising the margin is used to remove froth when things get out of control, but this is becoming ridiculous. The CME is acting like a cornered wild animal, lashing out at anyone or anything to make its escape.


Read more: http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/11/05/1058182/looking-for-the-silver-lining#ixzz1LkQ2sRsH

[JBmurc]

[QUOTE=Skol;345034]You and all the rest of the goldbugs need to stop banging on about debt, the Fed, China, comex, PIIGS, Bernanke, manipulators, JP Morgan and the rest of the fatuous reasons for gold and silver to 'go to the moon'.

All it needs to crash is sentiment, nothing else.

yeah sentiment debt + more debt =
very easy to understand clip

http://www.shtfplan.com/comedy/the-national-debt-crisis-micro-documentary_05072011

[Skol]

Lots of silver buffs won't be worried about debt, the Fed etc. right now, they'll be worried about survival.

If silver keeps crashing, they're going to go broke, so they'll be selling, and you know what that means.

On TV the other day was details of inflation edging up in China, and how large percentage of the portions of the population are finding it very tough, so I doubt they're out stocking up on gold and silver, especially after the latest debacle.

Having the plague would be preferable to over-exposure to silver.

This from Incredible Charts:

'The Gold Miners Index often leads the physical metal and has penetrated its long-term trendline, warning of a reversal. Bearish divergence indicates selling pressure.'

The goldbugs appear to have forgotten how much they hate Geithner, the Fed, Bernanke, JP Morgan and the fictitious 'manipulators' for the moment. George Soros is Public Enemy No. 1 now. LOL

[Skol]

4.5mill of paper silver

http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/11/05/1058182/looking-for-the-silver-lining

Effective after the close of business Thursday, the CME Group Inc.'s (NasdaqGS: CME) initial margin requirements, which is the minimum amount of cash that must be deposited when borrowing from your broker to trade silver, will be increasing to $18,900 per futures contract, up from $16,200(on 5/2). This is a huge increase from about a year ago when the margin required was $4,250. This latest margin hike is the fourth in less than two weeks and as I am hearing it they are announcing another hike for Monday(5/9) to $21,600, which would be the 5th in 3 weeks. I can understand why the CME would raise margins with silver flying as raising the margin is used to remove froth when things get out of control, but this is becoming ridiculous. The CME is acting like a cornered wild animal, lashing out at anyone or anything to make its escape.


Read more: http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/11/05/1058182/looking-for-the-silver-lining#ixzz1LkQ2sRsH

Yeah, you'll really want to take notice of Bezinga, whoever they are.
This appeared in the San Francisco Chronicle on May 2nd C/O Bezinga.

'Precious Metals - Gold and silver are terrific stores of value and do not lose their value as easily as fiat currencies do. If you not own the physical metals, GLD and SLV are good bets.'

Isn't it hilarious, on May 2nd. Ask thousand of silver 'investors' how their SLV has done recently. Down 28% since 29th April.

[JBmurc]

just looking at Trademe our biggest free market tradesite for bullion not much cheap bullion going even the likes of regal who usually sells round mint prices is alot higher than what I can buy from the USA the cheapest is 5500 for a 100oz bar on average round $70oz NZD

off HC
"Just for general information I just got back from the Perth Mint. They are completely sold out of silver, expected waiting times are as much as 3 months, they just don't know, they seem really on the back foot.

I was asking why even cast bars can't be produced without a potential 3 month wait (which is just absurd for a mint that claims plenty of metal). She mentioned one 'machine' was being replaced but other than that she didn't know."

Silver bar production capacity is restricted as we are in the process of building an extension and installing new (and moving existing) equipment into it, which should be done by July. Unfortunate timing but these things are planned well in advance.

"There will be no more Kookaburras available for the rest of the year, they have hit their 500,000 maximum mintage (due to them being a currency they have a strict limit). All you can get is whatever is sold back to them, they had all of 2 coins and she seemed rather chuffed to have even that. You can however order Koalas which have no face value."

[Skol]

HC, there's some real 'mum and dad' suckers on there, believe them if you like. Some of the more vocal PM pushers seem to have made themselves scarce recently.

With 36,000,000 oz sold since April 26th, I'm sure you won't have any trouble finding as much silver as you want very shortly.

Not much selling on TradeMe. A 1KG silver bar bid on by someone who obviously doesn't read the newspapers very carefully.

[Entrep]

Shouldn't very limited weight in terms of the demand for silver be given to internet auction sites and local mints? I haven't heard any complaints of an industrial silver shortage.

Who cares if people wanting to bury a few ounces in their backyards can't find any more to bury?

[shasta]

HC, there's some real 'mum and dad' suckers on there, believe them if you like. Some of the more vocal PM pushers seem to have made themselves scarce recently.

With 36,000,000 oz sold since April 26th, I'm sure you won't have any trouble finding as much silver as you want very shortly.

Not much selling on TradeMe. A 1KG silver bar bid on by someone who obviously doesn't read the newspapers very carefully.

Funny they cant supply when silver retraces, but north of $40/oz they all of a sudden had extra silver available

I got an email from Perth Mint saying they had more silver when it went past $40/oz

I reckon some suppliers are holding stock back, they know theres retail demand

[Skol]

IMHO we have hit bottom for this large breather onwards the PGM bull wil run .

Well if it doesn't you could always start looking for the Philosopher's Stone. It might be in Queenstown.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philosopher's_stone

[tricha]

HC, there's some real 'mum and dad' suckers on there, believe them if you like. Some of the more vocal PM pushers seem to have made themselves scarce recently.

With 36,000,000 oz sold since April 26th, I'm sure you won't have any trouble finding as much silver as you want very shortly.

Not much selling on TradeMe. A 1KG silver bar bid on by someone who obviously doesn't read the newspapers very carefully.

We have a blip Skol and as usual, who's the sucker :confused:

Jim knows :)

http://www.youtube.com/user/JimRogersChannel?blend=1&ob=5#p/u/1/0DYHPuNeq7s

[Skol]

Wrong thread tricha, this is the silver thread, however there are people who say we're running out of silver too, but actually we're not.

At some stage of history we've had people running around saying we're running out of everything. Timber, oil, gold, uranium, silver, water, helium, food. We're even running out of chocolate apparently. An 'extremely pricey and rare commodity'. Heard that before? LOL

It's what's called talking your books.

[Skol]

Jim rogers like myself would be very happy with the current pull-back in the silver price.

Jim Rogers - Genius.

Rogers on April 25th 2011 - "Silver has been going up but on a historic basis is still very depressed."

Rogers on May 5th 2011 - "Some of these things such as silver have touched an astonishing amount. So they need a correction."

I'd say Ben Bernanke was about 100X more trustworthy than Jim Rogers.

[asc4]

Jim Rogers - Genius.

Rogers on April 25th 2011 - "Silver has been going up but on a historic basis is still very depressed."

Rogers on May 5th 2011 - "Some of these things such as silver have touched an astonishing amount. So they need a correction."

I'd say Ben Bernanke was about 100X more trustworthy than Jim Rogers.

Sounds like he made a long term comment. Silver will go up long term to where it will be somewhere near the historic 16:1 silver:gold ratio.
... and then a short term comment. Silver is volatile and has had a fast run and needs to correct, things don't go up in straight lines, Skol.

To call him a liar is unfair isn't it?

If he is, could the same not be said for all the economists or analysts that you have quoted and posted links to that says that silver will crash any day now? or are fully trustworthy citizens that only have your best interests in mind. DYOR

[Skol]

Sounds like he made a long term comment. Silver will go up long term to where it will be somewhere near the historic 16:1 silver:gold ratio.
... and then a short term comment. Silver is volatile and has had a fast run and needs to correct, things don't go up in straight lines, Skol.

To call him a liar is unfair isn't it?

If he is, could the same not be said for all the economists or analysts that you have quoted and posted links to that says that silver will crash any day now? or are fully trustworthy citizens that only have your best interests in mind. DYOR

They do go up in straight lines, have a look at the silver chart for the last few weeks.
Not calling him a liar, but just what you might call speaks with forked tongue, but I think if you check I don't quote what I call the 'psychics'. Economists, yes, the 'psychic' analysts, no.

Not Clive Maund, Peter Schiff, the Aden sisters, Jason Hommel, Kitco, Jim Rogers, Gold Seek, Jim Rickards,
James Turk, Doug Casey, etc. etc. etc. etc. etc. etc. etc.

The only one I can think of was maybe Doug Kass who warned of a crash in early 2011. I also quoted UBS who said gold was headed for $850 next year. I agree.

Anyway psychics are for those that are unable to think for themselves.

Long term committment probably = bottom drawer.

Youy think silver ought to be 16:1?

US$94, you can't be serious.

If that's the case more than likely gold's gonna crash to around $600. Either the silver buffs are gonna make a fortune or gold will crash. If gold crashes, so will silver.

Something is not right.

[asc4]

Can't see silver at $94 any time soon, but will test $50USD again. I can see $60 some stage this year. But it will crash one day, I'm sure a psychic could even see that one ahead :).

I have my money were my mouth is, I traded AYN quickly, then went for a longer haul on CCU.
But there is money to be made on both sides of the trade.

Some of the guys you mention have really interesting comments, but I am weary of those that sell gold etc. like Kitco and Schiff (all though he is a good overall analyst and a bit abstract in his thought at times).

I rate Jim Rogers, but I also rate Soros that you have mentioned often, there are two sides to the story.

I enjoy reading all the posts on this and the gold thread. Too many bulls break the china and too many bears steal the porridge!

[Skol]

Gold is currently $1506.
Silver is $37.

You say 16:1

Gold should be $592 or
silver should be $94.

Or the 16:1 is wrong, which one is it? Currently 40:1.


In the middle of the night, Miss Clavel turned on her light, and said, "something is not right".

[Entrep]

As far as I know gold and silver are not substitutes and therefore what is the basis of the long term 16:1 ratio?

[asc4]

When I was talking about the ratio I was justifying what Rogers had said with a historical view. Historically 16:1.

Will it ever reach 16:1 again...gee I don't know.
Will it be because gold drops, well maybe.
Will it be because silver rises very fast and catches up to a rising gold price, well maybe
Will it be because gold drops slightly and silver rises fast...

Silver could be valued at $100USD and $30AUD at some stage, maybe :P

Pick your method to get there, I don't know. I believe in the failing USD, rising Silver, gold thing, so i'm bullish on both. Silver is a higher risk/reward game compared to gold.

[Skol]

As far as I know gold and silver are not substitutes and therefore what is the basis of the long term 16:1 ratio?

Good point, something I've been trying to get to the bottom of, like gold:oil.
Why not gold:beef?

[stevo1]

Good point, something I've been trying to get to the bottom of, like gold:oil.
Why not gold:beef?
Why not indeed.But you dont need to eat beef or buy gold to survive and thrive.There is plenty of other foods to eat and live on .The alternative to gold is fiat currencies of whatever description($AU ATM) the alterenative to gold are other PMs or interest bearing currencies providing sufficient margin to the increases of POG or POS so what are these ?Seems to me that they are (ATM) PM producing countries with the exception of the USA,Has it occurred to you why this is the case?

[Skol]

Plain english please. In the last year silver has increased about 180% or thereabouts, so not many currencies can compete with that. Anything that goes up 180% in a year eventually pays the price.

[tricha]

Wrong thread tricha, this is the silver thread, however there are people who say we're running out of silver too, but actually we're not.

At some stage of history we've had people running around saying we're running out of everything. Timber, oil, gold, uranium, silver, water, helium, food. We're even running out of chocolate apparently. An 'extremely pricey and rare commodity'. Heard that before? LOL

It's what's called talking your books.

Sorry Skol, I must be losing the plot :(, I swear I heard Jim Rogers talking about Silver and calling helicopter Ben an idiot :eek2:

[Skol]

On or about April 20th Rogers said "Silver looks like it could get to $100 this year."

One investment group checked out 10 other times when silver had corrected by at least 15% in 3 days.

In the week following prices rose on an average 1%.

Prices quickly resumed their descent averaging declines of one month -3.1%, three months -7% and six months -10.5%.

These are averages, some selloffs declined 30% in six months.

A TA person says that if silver breaks $26.95 it will drop to a level she won't even mention.

Wall Street Daily says

Fact: Silver is Notoriously Volatile

Analysis firm, CPM Group New York, said it best this week: “No asset in history has risen so sharply so rapidly and retained most of its price appreciation. Silver has no immunity to the laws of the markets.”

History bears it out, too.

After rising to a record $50.35 in January 1980, silver prices plummeted 78% in four months. And during the financial crisis, silver lost half of its value in the blink of an eye.
.

[Pumice]

Forex: USD to rally when QE ends - J.Rogers
Tue, May 10 2011, 22:50 GMT | FXstreet.com

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Influential investment veteran Jim Rogers (the co-founder of Quantum) joined Bill Gross, the largest bond manager in the world, on his bearish view in the US bond market.

"He plans to short U.S. Treasuries as soon as this afternoon as he expects the end of quantitative easing to pressure government bonds" Reuters reports.

Rogers said he expects the U.S. dollar to rally when the Federal Reserve's unconventional monetary measure ends in June. "I'm not short bonds yet but I plan to short bonds - maybe this afternoon if I get around to it," Rogers told Reuters Insider television.


Has Jim Rogers jumped ship?.......
Stronger USD = Weaker silver prices

[Skol]

Yep.

The bugs will tell you otherwise but at the end of last year the silver surplus, the difference between supply and fabrication demand was 173.4 million ounces.

This from GFMS.
There's no convincing economic reason why this silver rally is happening. It's still a market with a very large surplus

[JBmurc]

Jim Rogers - Genius.

Rogers on April 25th 2011 - "Silver has been going up but on a historic basis is still very depressed."

Rogers on May 5th 2011 - "Some of these things such as silver have touched an astonishing amount. So they need a correction."

I'd say Ben Bernanke was about 100X more trustworthy than Jim Rogers.

wow nothing like taking ones words out of context to try making a point..

Ben Bernanke trustworthy yeah the guy that was asked in congress-"can you please state which banks received the bail-out funds"--NO

SILVER=$38

[Skol]

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/Bubble.gif





http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/Silver425.gif

Silver = $38. The 'return to normal'. Feeling better?

[drillfix]

Actually, as I type, its $39.17 :P

Dont feel neither here, nor there about this. Read what the chart says and either trade or invest accordingly is how I feel about things.

Some times risk is a wonderful thing, it makes you feel alive, gives your adrenals a twitch, yet sometimes it also pulls you down a path of ruin.

The balance of the equation is just fine and dandy, but then for many, this is also dependent on your style and position in life and everybody's is different to some degree so we cannot all speak for each other.

Good luck to whatever anybody does, with anything :)

[elZorro]

This could help explain the big drop in silver, details on BOTs doing the damage. JB, you'll probably have read this, it must be Skol's turn..

Silver drop explained. (http://politicalmetals.com/)

[Skol]

This could help explain the big drop in silver, details on BOTs doing the damage. JB, you'll probably have read this, it must be Skol's turn..

Silver drop explained. (http://politicalmetals.com/)

I've already read that. "It's not our fault", is what he's saying it's someone elses fault. That goldbug attitude is everywhere, they will never change, but I think EZ, you will have to concede that the crash chart looks exactly like the current silver chart thus far.

If you read my previous post about the 10 times that silver dropped more than 15%, I would say that it's likely a major crash is on the cards.

I don't follow the psychics but I did notice TA guy Daryl Guppy saying this rally is going to end badly.

[gazprom1]

IMHO we have hit bottom for this large breather onwards the PGM bull wil run .

Hey Skol,

The quote attached was from JBM where he called the bottom....pretty much was the bottom for silver. Has rallied strongly the past few days...up around 12%.

There is no doubt that ONE DAY Skol silver will collapse (from where to where who knows) but in the meantime there are a lot of us who have made great money and a retracement of $10/oz - $15/oz is healthy before we move back up again.

Gazprom

[JBmurc]

Hey Skol,

The quote attached was from JBM where he called the bottom....pretty much was the bottom for silver. Has rallied strongly the past few days...up around 12%.

There is no doubt that ONE DAY Skol silver will collapse (from where to where who knows) but in the meantime there are a lot of us who have made great money and a retracement of $10/oz - $15/oz is healthy before we move back up again.

Gazprom

yeah too right Gaz the pullback in silver was very needed and positive if Silver had keeped running say 80+ etc that would have been bad as anything be it markets , commodities etc that go parabolic always crash just like the mass debt the US is taking on if you look at the last M3 money supply chart it was a very parabolic move after years of slow growth.
From here I'd be more than happy to see Silver increase slowly to $60oz by years end

[Skol]

yeah too right Gaz the pullback in silver was very needed and positive if Silver had keeped running say 80+ etc that would have been bad as anything be it markets , commodities etc that go parabolic always crash just like the mass debt the US is taking on if you look at the last M3 money supply chart it was a very parabolic move after years of slow growth.
From here I'd be more than happy to see Silver increase slowly to $60oz by years end

Yeah JB, but you can't be that thrilled that Gaz says $10-$15oz. I was kind of thinking $15-$20 myself.

[JBmurc]

Yeah JB, but you can't be that thrilled that Gaz says $10-$15oz. I was kind of thinking $15-$20 myself.


Yeah I don't think we'd see $10 or even sub $20 personal I think we've seen the bottom in the low 30's maybe that could get hit again over the next few months unlikely IMHO but time will tell

[elZorro]

That goldbug attitude is everywhere, they will never change, but I think EZ, you will have to concede that the crash chart looks exactly like the current silver chart thus far.

If you read my previous post about the 10 times that silver dropped more than 15%, I would say that it's likely a major crash is on the cards.

Yes, I did think those charts were very similar, great work. I don't know much about the costs to mine silver, it does seem to appear in some high grades. Those mining costs will have a bearing on the average silver price if demand is higher. Also in silver's defence, remember we discussed some mathematical theory that gold would crash heavily in April 2011. The oscillation theory or similar. Hasn't happened - instead the US$ crashed.

[Skol]

Contrarian Warning.

Just been watching Sky.

www.bullionbuyer.co.nz Looking at the directors is scarier than the POS.

By the way EZ, I wouldn't say the USD has crashed, silver dropped 12% in 11 minutes. Now that's a crash.

[CAM]

Contrarian Warning.

Just been watching Sky.

www.bullionbuyer.co.nz (http://www.bullionbuyer.co.nz)

By the way EZ, I wouldn't say the USD has crashed, silver dropped 12% in 11 minutes. Now that's a crash.

Have heard those guys advertising on the radio a few months ago.
Also heard someone doing an advertorial type thing on radio as well...NewstalkZB if I remember correctly...whichever one Danny Watson is on.

edit.... these guys I think... http://www.cpmgonline.com/index.htm

[Skol]

Have heard those guys advertising on the radio a few months ago.
Also heard someone doing an advertorial type thing on radio as well...NewstalkZB if I remember correctly...whichever one Danny Watson is on.

edit.... these guys I think... http://www.cpmgonline.com/index.htm

Check the sole director out.

[tricha]

Hey Skol,

The quote attached was from JBM where he called the bottom....pretty much was the bottom for silver. Has rallied strongly the past few days...up around 12%.

There is no doubt that ONE DAY Skol silver will collapse (from where to where who knows) but in the meantime there are a lot of us who have made great money and a retracement of $10/oz - $15/oz is healthy before we move back up again.

Gazprom

Hmm collapse, more likely the US$ will collapse 1st, a bit like Germany in 1924, hyperinflation, a wheel barrow of money for a loaf of bread.

With helicopter Ben probably doing his last drop, QE3, the penny will drop and the US will meet their day of reckoning, unfortunately it will not bode well for us either.

Silver and gold are having a breather, we ain't seen anything yet.

The big question u have to answer is, have u locked in your own personal insurance yet ?? Debt will be a killer, cash will be trash.
A little gold and\or silver may prove to be a godsend. ;)

[Skol]

Nice one tricha, just before silver plunged $4 overnite. Statistically, this could be the resumption of the great 2011 silver crash, SLV down 8%.

I do have a fair amount of cash, but the beauty of it is it's eminently liquid, not like chunks of silver or gold in the basement.

1.42, looks like the USD has broken out of its downhill pattern and on the way up. Better unload that gold/silver before everyone catches on.

So far silver is exactly matching the crash chart, just past the, 'return to normal'. Uncanny isn't it?

My learned friend Ben Bernanke is probably quietly enjoying watching the goldbugs stew in their own juice.

[tricha]

Hmm collapse, more likely the US$ will collapse 1st, a bit like Germany in 1924, hyperinflation, a wheel barrow of money for a loaf of bread.

With helicopter Ben probably doing his last drop, QE3, the penny will drop and the US will meet their day of reckoning, unfortunately it will not bode well for us either.

Silver and gold are having a breather, we ain't seen anything yet.

The big question u have to answer is, have u locked in your own personal insurance yet ?? Debt will be a killer, cash will be trash.
A little gold and\or silver may prove to be a godsend. ;)

What an opportunity to buy more before the US implodes with their paper trash, toilet paper will be worth more soon.
Unfortunately or fortunately gold in OZ $ remains around $1400 an ounce, great or gold companies but not if u want the physical stuff.

One day in the not to distant, China and company will disown the $US. We will find out one day when we awake.:(


http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/ag2011.gif

[Skol]

That's it tricha, you back the truck up.

I expect your prognosis on silver will be about as accurate as your one on the POO before the 2008 oil crash.

[Phaedrus]

THEORETICAL MODEL

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/Bubble.gif




THIS TIME

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/Ag512new.gif

[Skol]

Nice work Phaedrus thank you.

Hey JB. I'll bet that if JP Morgan didn't have any shorts before they'll have them now.

Look out below.

[trackers]

Gotta hand it to you phaedrus, thats pretty well done lol

[asc4]

Two views from Commodity Blog here:

Bullish:

http://www.commodityblog.com/2011/05/11

Bearish:

http://www.commodityblog.com/commodity-prices-silver/video-silver-bubble-2011-bursting

[drillfix]

LOL the bear started out with Mr.P's bubble chart.

Funny why is always both Americans that are only seem to have the spotlight on whether its Bull or Bear? Some special methodology from these views?

[tricha]

LOL the bear started out with Mr.P's bubble chart.

Funny why is always both Americans that are only seem to have the spotlight on whether its Bull or Bear? Some special methodology from these views?

Not the only funny thing, funny money, we are still in a bear trap, Skol has taken it hook, line and anchor as usual.

The US dollar is appreciating, another bear trap, they are doomed for failure. Their dollar will soon resume the march to oblivion and beyond.
We will see gold and silver march to the sky in US junk money.

I see one major problem, where does it leave Ozzie gold\silver prices, here is gold tonight, still umoved around $1404.97

11 May 2011 Last updated at 18:38 GMT

US trade deficit pushed up by rising oil import costs


http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/52669000/jpg/_52669093_ustradedeficitimportsexportsoilmarch.jpg Oil prices rose sharply in March due to the conflict in Libya, and rose further in April
Continue reading the main story (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13368217#story_continues_1) US Economy


Growth in the US economy slows (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13222439)
No end yet to US house price fall (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13199462)
US new home permits in 11% rise (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13133708)
What is a rating agency? (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10108284)

The US saw a widening trade deficit in March thanks largely to the increasing cost of the country's oil imports.
The $48.2bn (£29.5bn) shortfall was up from $45.4bn a month earlier, data from the Commerce Department (http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/current_press_release/ft900.pdf) showed, and beat expectations of just $47bn.
However, excluding trade in petroleum products, the deficit was only $16.9bn and had fallen since the month before on a seasonally-adjusted basis.
Exports grew 4.6% to $173bn - surpassing their pre-recession high.
The country's exports saw their biggest monthly gain in 17 years, led by food and beverages, and industrial supplies.
Crude oil prices increased sharply at the end of February thanks to the conflict in Libya, and this has been reflected in the rising cost of imports for the US.
They rose even further in April, and despite the recent sharp sell-off in commodity markets, remain close to the levels seen in March.
The news pushed the dollar sharply higher against most currencies, as the strong export performance brought forward expectations for when the US Fed will start raising interest rates.
The trade figures were released at the same time as positive jobs data from the Labor Department (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm) that showed a rise in the number of job openings in March.
The stronger dollar helped to bring the price of US sweet light oil - which is measured in dollars - down 4.5%.

[Pumice]

Dude, are you married to silver? Be objective. Lower highs and lower lows.
Currently, $33. That’s down over $15 in a fortnight!!
No concerns?
As previously stated, even Jim Rogers is bullish the USD.

Phaedrus previous post is playing out pretty well as illustrated. Not that I think he cares, He’s about as neutral as they come, no doubt profiting handsomely.

[JBmurc]

Dude, are you married to silver? Be objective. Lower highs and lower lows.
Currently, $33. That’s down over $15 in a fortnight!!
No concerns?
As previously stated, even Jim Rogers is bullish the USD.

Phaedrus previous post is playing out pretty well as illustrated. Not that I think he cares, He’s about as neutral as they come, no doubt profiting handsomely.


Jim rogers bullish the USD I wouldn't think so... last interview on CNBC I seen much like before in interviews he was very negative towards the pound and USD over the longer term (for one he moved his family away from the USA) ,he did state if silver was to pull back like it has he hoped to be smart enough to buy more of it.
Maybe it was a very short term play on the back of the recent major sell-off of the USD

[Skol]

It's been a busy day, a good nights rest for me, but not for the goldbugs, very bad things are happening.

Must be the 'invisible hand' at work, the manipulators working overtime.

[Pumice]

Jim rogers bullish the USD I wouldn't think so... last interview on CNBC I seen much like before in interviews he was very negative towards the pound and USD over the longer term (for one he moved his family away from the USA) ,he did state if silver was to pull back like it has he hoped to be smart enough to buy more of it.
Maybe it was a very short term play on the back of the recent major sell-off of the USD

Well you could be right. But I would be concerned about USD strength.
If I held anything that went from $49 a unit to $33, I would not be happy.
When does a “correction” become a reversal of trend?
That drop seems too excessive to be written off as a healthy correction IMO.

Anyway I’m long USD.

[gazprom1]

It's been a busy day, a good nights rest for me, but not for the goldbugs, very bad things are happening.

Must be the 'invisible hand' at work, the manipulators working overtime.

Hi Skol,

Not sure that Goldbugs would have been worried overnight...up $6.45 as I write....I am not a goldbug but follow it as a matter of follwoing the markets. The CME margin requirements have been raised 5 times in 15 days what do you expect silver to do?

AS for the US$, I would prefer to go to Vegas than pick where the US$ maybe in a week/ month/year. All the punters are at odds with each other.

Gazprom

[Skol]

Hi Gaz,

When I switched off last night silver was $33.20, down from $39 in 24hrs. Give me the USD anyday, it's only a matter of time before silver returns to the mean.

Maybe they can raise the margin for oil too so it's cheaper for me to run my vehicles.

Here's what one journalist says in the FT today about silver:

Last week, one of the biggest bubbles of the last century seemed to have burst.

and

There is one lesson past bubbles should teach: selling early is much better than selling late.

Doesn't make any difference though, the goldbug mentality will ensure heaps of them hang on for the grand finale.

[JBmurc]

Hi Gaz,

When I switched off last night silver was $33.20, down from $39 in 24hrs. Give me the USD anyday, it's only a matter of time before silver returns to the mean.

Maybe they can raise the margin for oil too so it's cheaper for me to run my vehicles.

Here's what one journalist says in the FT today about silver:

Last week, one of the biggest bubbles of the last century seemed to have burst.

and

There is one lesson past bubbles should teach: selling early is much better than selling late.

Doesn't make any difference though, the goldbug mentality will ensure heaps of them hang on for the grand finale.

Silver $35oz usd
recent massive daily action on the comex for silver seen over 1bill oz of paper silver get traded fact is the comex has less than 30mill oz of real silver invertory bubble yes I agree the bubble of paper IOU's

[Skol]

Looks like the USD has convincingly broken it's downtrend JB. What now? Put the silver on TradeMe for a $1 and hope for the best?

I thought the USD was gonna be confetti according to the goldbugs, so when 's it going to happen? I predicted silver was in a bubble, even got the exact top, so when will I be lighting my fire with US$100 notes? LOL

[Pumice]

Good call Skol.

I can understand when silver is on the up, by all means hold, but surely the gold/silver bugs should at least have locked in some profits when the trend broke down. Certainly not buy more.

Good to see the USD strengthening and only a modest CPI reading this morning.
I’m sure some will call it a lie.

Maybe if the NZD becomes worthless, XAG/XAU will prove to be a good bet.

[Skol]

Yeah Pumice,
Goldbugism is almost a mental illness, their obsession with absurd conspiracy theories, everyone else is wrong, they're never wrong, I reckon they need de-programming.
A journalist from FT made a comment the other day about goldbugs. He said that he was discussing debt, and all the other stuff they go on about with a goldbug friend . The journalist told his mate that he didn't agree the USD would become worthless and that gold would become a currency.

His mate told him he was "on the dark side".
I got a message from a goldbug the other day saying "it's not too late to come over to our side".

Pretty weird.


Why do people who buy gold and silver never wonder why the people who are selling it to them are taking their useless, worthless, fiat, confetti money?

The FT says that US punters have reduced their silver holdings via ETF's in the last 2 weeks by 1.4% and 5.7% respectively. Indians have apparently being buying gold and silver furiously seeing it as cheap. India is a country notorious for mass examples of herd instinct so it's not that surprising I suppose.

There's some hedge funds having near-death experiences at the moment. That's what happens when you're over-exposed.

[tricha]

Yeah Pumice,
Goldbugism is almost a mental illness, their obsession with absurd conspiracy theories, everyone else is wrong, they're never wrong, I reckon they need de-programming.
A journalist from FT made a comment the other day about goldbugs. He said that he was discussing debt, and all the other stuff they go on about with a goldbug friend . The journalist told his mate that he didn't agree the USD would become worthless and that gold would become a currency.

His mate told him he was "on the dark side".
I got a message from a goldbug the other day saying "it's not too late to come over to our side".

Pretty weird.


Why do people who buy gold and silver never wonder why the people who are selling it to them are taking their useless, worthless, fiat, confetti money?

The FT says that US punters have reduced their silver holdings via ETF's in the last 2 weeks by 1.4% and 5.7% respectively. Indians have apparently being buying gold and silver furiously seeing it as cheap. India is a country notorious for mass examples of herd instinct so it's not that surprising I suppose.

Weird, obviously u do not have a mirror Skol.:confused:

That picture u hold dearly of a dinosaur, u definely have a mental illness. The US$ along with those dinosaurs are going to crash and burn, so u better get some gold and silver fast.
Before it's not worth the paper it is written on.:t_down:

[Skol]

Yeah tricha, rush out and buy gold and silver. I'll have to do that.

If we all do the opposite of what you do, we'll all be rich, you'd be the best example of a contrarian warning on the planet.

[tricha]

Yeah tricha, rush out and buy gold and silver. I'll have to do that.

If we all do the opposite of what you do, we'll all be rich, you'd be the best example of a contrarian warning on the planet.

U r a fine example to say that, one who could not pick his way out of a bag. Where did u come in last years share picking.:confused::confused::confused:

Hmm I thought so, ....................................:t_down:

[Skol]

Give us a clue tricha, what sort of gold and silver have you got to protect you from the coming meltdown?

[JBmurc]

Well decided to sell a couple of my big bars paid $4500 for ea of the 5kg NZpure bars under 2yrs ago sold within hrs of listing for $7999ea for a $5700 profit less fees ....easy nothing hard at all about the investment at all.. still holding 1450oz might buy another 100-200oz of 1oz rounds for the right price think where Silver prices are going the smaller amounts will be much easier to trade with

[Skol]

Your remaining 1450 oz down US$23200 since April 29th, told you when the top was but you don't listen.

The problem with physical, it's illiquid.

Better sell some more, looking pretty grim at the moment, wonder if this is the beginning of the end, reversion to the mean.

[miner]

Well decided to sell a couple of my big bars paid $4500 for ea of the 5kg NZpure bars under 2yrs ago sold within hrs of listing for $7999ea for a $5700 profit less fees ....easy nothing hard at all about the investment at all.. still holding 1450oz might buy another 100-200oz of 1oz rounds for the right price think where Silver prices are going the smaller amounts will be much easier to trade with

Easy enough earn there JB,good on ya.

[CAM]

Well decided to sell a couple of my big bars paid $4500 for ea of the 5kg NZpure bars under 2yrs ago sold within hrs of listing for $7999ea for a $5700 profit less fees ....easy nothing hard at all about the investment at all.. still holding 1450oz might buy another 100-200oz of 1oz rounds for the right price think where Silver prices are going the smaller amounts will be much easier to trade with

Good profit ... not to be sneezed at.
I am curious as to what you think the right price to purchase silver rounds is given the current climate.
cheers.

[JBmurc]

Your remaining 1450 oz down US$23200 since April 29th, told you when the top was but you don't listen.

The problem with physical, it's illiquid.

Better sell some more, looking pretty grim at the moment, wonder if this is the beginning of the end, reversion to the mean.

Grim not at all just wanted to free up some cash which I did within hours of listing ,end of the bull market in hard currencies I think not ..
Have the US lifted their debt ceiling yet...... 20 trillion next ceiling?? should keep them going for a few more years as well as PGM prices

[JBmurc]

Grim not at all just wanted to free up some cash which I did within hours of listing ,end of the bull market in hard currencies I think not ..
Have the US lifted their debt ceiling yet...... 20 trillion next ceiling?? should keep them going for a few more years as well as PGM prices


Good profit ... not to be sneezed at.
I am curious as to what you think the right price to purchase silver rounds is given the current climate.
cheers.

well last time I checked I could buy some nice 1oz rounds for $50-$52oz NZD once I sort my funds out (spending heap on rebuilding a 4wd up for the winter)
sub $50 got to be good buying best to buy a few at a time then if Silver pulls back further you average down or up if the price heads back on trend

[Skol]

The USA is capable of enormous feats if the situation warrants, which is why I have no doubt at all that they will overcome their debt crisis and it'll be a minor blip in history.

The Mare Island Naval Shipyard built and launched a destroyer in 17.5 days. In WW2. Not bad.

[trackers]

Your remaining 1450 oz down US$23200 since April 29th, told you when the top was but you don't listen.

The problem with physical, it's illiquid.

Better sell some more, looking pretty grim at the moment, wonder if this is the beginning of the end, reversion to the mean.

ROFL. Thats pretty funny Skol, given this whole thread is about you claiming the top at ~$25 - Silver's a hell of a lot higher than that still mate

[Skol]

ROFL. Thats pretty funny Skol, given this whole thread is about you claiming the top at ~$25 - Silver's a hell of a lot higher than that still mate

Where did I say that?

[Skol]

what Fear LOL I've brought another 62oz silver in the last couple weeks I don't live in

You posted that on the 27/4 , just before the meltdown, so how come you just sold some and made a profit? Did you sell the stuff you bought at $12 oz or $40oz?

[JBmurc]

You posted that on the 27/4 , just before the meltdown, so how come you just sold some and made a profit? Did you sell the stuff you bought at $12 oz or $40oz?

Well for one I pay in NZD.. the average I paid for the last 64oz was $56-$57oz NZD this has be the most I've paid for Silver bullion so far --Now even though the Silver price has come back I don't think your get US Eagles 1oz rounds for much less than what I paid a few weeks back..the best I've found is $1-2 cheaper but only if I brought in bulk..If I brought say a NZ pure or credit sussie 1kg-5kg bar from ABT I could get silver at $49ozNZD+ freight

I think it really come down to how good a deal you find the spot Vs the free NZ market don't always keep the same margins and as many are find bullion magins over spot are increasing

[JBmurc]

The USA is capable of enormous feats if the situation warrants, which is why I have no doubt at all that they will overcome their debt crisis and it'll be a minor blip in history.

The Mare Island Naval Shipyard built and launched a destroyer in 17.5 days. In WW2. Not bad.

yeah I agree the USA has done many great feats sadly for a once great strong nation it's taken the wrong road for far to many years and they don't look like they want to turn round ....Debt+DEBT =more debt
Roman empire was a far far stronger bigger empire than the USA is now in a gobal sense but it took the wrong road through debts n wars ......

Overexpansion and inflation
One of the most enduring types of evidence left behind by the later Roman Empire is its coinage. A set of coins from the later years of the Western Roman Empire shows significant evidence of numismatic adulteration, particularly in coins originally minted in silver. In later years, similar coins came to be minted out of base metal, often with only a thin cladding or coating of the precious metal.
Many historians argue that the rapid growth of the empire over a relatively short time and the economic inflation that followed contributed substantially to the empire's decay. Due to the vast size of the empire, it required an enormous budget to maintain the infrastructure necessary for its survival, including roads (essential for communication, transportation, and the moving of armies) and aqueducts (many cities relied on the water thus provided). Moreover, the empire faced enemies on all sides due to its expansion into their territories, and huge sums of silver and gold were required to keep up its armies. To cope with both problems, the empire was forced to raise taxes frequently, and also to adulterate its coins, causing inflation to skyrocket into hyperinflation. This in turn caused major economic stresses that some historians regard as central in Rome's decline.

[Skol]

yeah I agree the USA has done many great feats sadly for a once great strong nation it's taken the wrong road for far to many years and they don't look like they want to turn round ....Debt+DEBT =more debt
Roman empire was a far far stronger bigger empire than the USA is now in a gobal sense but it took the wrong road through debts n wars ......

Overexpansion and inflation
One of the most enduring types of evidence left behind by the later Roman Empire is its coinage. A set of coins from the later years of the Western Roman Empire shows significant evidence of numismatic adulteration, particularly in coins originally minted in silver. In later years, similar coins came to be minted out of base metal, often with only a thin cladding or coating of the precious metal.
Many historians argue that the rapid growth of the empire over a relatively short time and the economic inflation that followed contributed substantially to the empire's decay. Due to the vast size of the empire, it required an enormous budget to maintain the infrastructure necessary for its survival, including roads (essential for communication, transportation, and the moving of armies) and aqueducts (many cities relied on the water thus provided). Moreover, the empire faced enemies on all sides due to its expansion into their territories, and huge sums of silver and gold were required to keep up its armies. To cope with both problems, the empire was forced to raise taxes frequently, and also to adulterate its coins, causing inflation to skyrocket into hyperinflation. This in turn caused major economic stresses that some historians regard as central in Rome's decline.

US debt as a percentage of GDP was way higher in the 1940's than it is now.

[drillfix]

Hi JB,

Here is a message I just got from IB regarding Hong Kong Futures, I think this would be of more interest to you (physical delivery)


To HKFE traders:
Tue May 17 18:57:33 2011 EST

Please note that the HK Mercantile exchange will open today offering physically delivered 32 Troy Ounce Gold Futures.
To obtain permission to trade along with free data, please log into Account Management/Trading Configuration and select Hong Kong Futures (both HKFE and HKMEX are included), and sign up for the HKMEX data subscription.

The trading symbol is HKG. Special introductory commissions will apply for a limited time.

For additional information, please visit www.hkmerc.com/en/index.html

[JBmurc]

Hi JB,

Here is a message I just got from IB regarding Hong Kong Futures, I think this would be of more interest to you (physical delivery)


To HKFE traders:
Tue May 17 18:57:33 2011 EST

Please note that the HK Mercantile exchange will open today offering physically delivered 32 Troy Ounce Gold Futures.
To obtain permission to trade along with free data, please log into Account Management/Trading Configuration and select Hong Kong Futures (both HKFE and HKMEX are included), and sign up for the HKMEX data subscription.

The trading symbol is HKG. Special introductory commissions will apply for a limited time.

For additional information, please visit www.hkmerc.com/en/index.html

yeah will be signing up as will millions of new wealth in the east

[elZorro]

Hi JB, just thought you'd like to know I bought some silver bullion recently, ready for it to race back up to $50/oz or more. When it turns up I'll have to find a safe place for it. I haven't seen the bottom of my socks drawer for awhile, that should be fine. At least with a solid investment like this, I won't be worried about dilution, shorting etc from hotshot company directors. Yes I know, should have bought some at $17/oz a little while ago, you did warn us. Cheers.

[Skol]

Getting ready for the 'return to the mean', EZ?

If you're patient you will have the opportunity to buy at $17.

[elZorro]

Getting ready for the 'return to the mean', EZ?

If you're patient you will have the opportunity to buy at $17.

Probably not Skol, because there is a lot of interest in hedging with silver as a cheaper metal, and silver has still outperformed gold over the last year or so, even now. Anyway, it's a bit rich to have a go at me when you have just sold some silver at the recent peak isn't it? :)

[Skol]

Probably not Skol, because there is a lot of interest in hedging with silver as a cheaper metal, and silver has still outperformed gold over the last year or so, even now. Anyway, it's a bit rich to have a go at me when you have just sold some silver at the recent peak isn't it? :)

Silver has outperformed gold, a good reason not to buy it. I sold silver and I won't be buying it back. SLV is up 120% in the last year despite the recent correction.

[gazprom1]

Silver has outperformed gold, a good reason not to buy it. I sold silver and I won't be buying it back. SLV is up 120% in the last year despite the recent correction.

Hey Skol,

Silver has had a nice bounce since the lows of 3-4 weeks ago. By my calculations from when JB called the bottom it is up around (depending on what figures you use) 11% - not too bad given what equities have done in the corresponding period. I have not bought or sold any and I am happy to hold in the current environment.

Good luck EZ.

Gazprom

[elZorro]

Thanks Gazprom.

[JBmurc]

Hey Skol,

Silver has had a nice bounce since the lows of 3-4 weeks ago. By my calculations from when JB called the bottom it is up around (depending on what figures you use) 11% - not too bad given what equities have done in the corresponding period. I have not bought or sold any and I am happy to hold in the current environment.

Good luck EZ.

Gazprom

yeah Silver just under $38oz looking for a break through this double top to power back towards $50 some will say this is a bull trap IMHO the US world reserve Fiat dollar is in trouble and as much as the FED helps paper over the problems it's doomed to fall in value

[gazprom1]

yeah Silver just under $38oz looking for a break through this double top to power back towards $50 some will say this is a bull trap IMHO the US world reserve Fiat dollar is in trouble and as much as the FED helps paper over the problems it's doomed to fall in value

Closed at $38.00 even. Has been a good week for silver....equity markets also stabilised during the week. Would like to see a positive start to the week so the small caps take off.

Probably should post this on AMU but should be news out shortly JB. I am still not in....lots of attractive opportunities and AMU is one of them.

Enjoy the weekend.

Gaz

[gazprom1]

Hi JB, just thought you'd like to know I bought some silver bullion recently, ready for it to race back up to $50/oz or more. When it turns up I'll have to find a safe place for it. I haven't seen the bottom of my socks drawer for awhile, that should be fine. At least with a solid investment like this, I won't be worried about dilution, shorting etc from hotshot company directors. Yes I know, should have bought some at $17/oz a little while ago, you did warn us. Cheers.

EZ, looks like Silver is going your way....$38.48 this morning. Wonder if it will test $40 this week??

Gaz

[elZorro]

EZ, looks like Silver is going your way....$38.48 this morning. Wonder if it will test $40 this week??

Gaz

Hello Gaz, I wasn't going to start being confident yet, but yes, might have made a dollar. The bar was nice and shiny when it turned up, not scary at all.

[Skol]

Hello Gaz, I wasn't going to start being confident yet, but yes, might have made a dollar. The bar was nice and shiny when it turned up, not scary at all.

Why are they selling it to you and taking your useless fiat confetti money?

[gazprom1]

Hello Gaz, I wasn't going to start being confident yet, but yes, might have made a dollar. The bar was nice and shiny when it turned up, not scary at all.

It is beautiful stuff in the flesh. I have JB to thank for my investment in silver over a year ago. Was on holiday in Guernsey and went along to the mint and they were selling swiss silver. Could not resist - left it there at a mates place. I then returned to NZ and bought stuff from Regal Castings - 1kg bars and 1kg coins. I have left out a tiger coin to play with.

Gaz

[JBmurc]

It is beautiful stuff in the flesh. I have JB to thank for my investment in silver over a year ago. Was on holiday in Guernsey and went along to the mint and they were selling swiss silver. Could not resist - left it there at a mates place. I then returned to NZ and bought stuff from Regal Castings - 1kg bars and 1kg coins. I have left out a tiger coin to play with.

Gaz

you can see why Silver has always held value ,going forward more than ever as the Fiat contiues to lose value like the have done from the very start

[Pumice]

ouch, what happened to silver in the last few hours, lost about $2.
Its been a wild ride these last few months.

Is there any reason why silver is not holding up as strongly as gold? I thought they'd be very closely correlated.

[Skol]

ouch, what happened to silver in the last few hours, lost about $2.
Its been a wild ride these last few months.

Is there any reason why silver is not holding up as strongly as gold? I thought they'd be very closely correlated.

Lots of reasons, probably the main one being silver is more volatile and not as liquid as the gold trade. It's poor man's gold, for the people that can't afford the yellow stuff. Lots of punters

have switched out of silver into gold recently which is why gold has probably held up better - for the moment.

[JBmurc]

Lots of reasons, probably the main one being silver is more volatile and not as liquid as the gold trade. It's poor man's gold, for the people that can't afford the yellow stuff. Lots of punters

have switched out of silver into gold recently which is why gold has probably held up better - for the moment.

yes paper wise silver has pulled back alot while gold has held its ground and gained doesn't worry me much as the fact is the comex's real silver bullion invertories are at all time lows .....a very bullish factorone cannot ignore

http://www.beaconequity.com/silver-inventories-dangerously-low-3-stocks-to-consider-2011-06-02/

extract:

"In fact, according to the Comex?s Metal Depository Statistics report, just released, registered silver bullion at the Comex has dropped again to a record low of 29.6 million ounces in May, a drop of 3.5 million ounces in one month. That drop comes off the heals of a 8 million plunge in inventories in April, from February.

At today?s silver price of $37, the value of total Comex silver available for delivery equates to a miniscule $1.1 billion.

Compare the 29.6 million ounces with the Comex?s inventory of registered silver reading of 86.6 million ounces in July of 2008, or a decline of 1.7 million ounces, on average, each month. So, the raid on the silver stock has escalated markedly during the last two reporting months of April and May.

At the present rate of offload, the Comex stores approximately six months of inventory of silver bullion.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Now your'd think with the massive sell-off in paper silver to see the Comex inventory increase massively ...?? but no as it's paper and not the real metal being shorted etc

brought another 55oz silver this week

[Skol]

yes paper wise silver has pulled back alot while gold has held its ground and gained doesn't worry me much as the fact is the comex's real silver bullion invertories are at all time lows

I doubt it, 1028 tonnes was sold off a few weeks ago.

Notice he says, "I 'think' there is an absolute shortage in the physical market." Hardly very specific.

If there was a shortage the price wouldn't be dropping.

[JBmurc]

I doubt it, 1028 tonnes was sold off a few weeks ago.

Notice he says, "I 'think' there is an absolute shortage in the physical market." Hardly very specific.

If there was a shortage the price wouldn't be dropping.

It would if there's enough paper silver shorted --1028tons of paper silver the real comex silver invertory drops shouldn't it increase on major holders selling back real silver?? or the fact is real silver bullion holdings tiny compared to the paper contracts floating round add in the masses of Silver ETF's backed by only a small percent of real silver...

[Skol]

brought another 55oz silver this week

Just in time for the current selloff. I think you're going to oust tricha as Sharetrader's incumbent contrarian warning.

[JBmurc]

Just in time for the current selloff. I think you're going to oust tricha as Sharetrader's incumbent contrarian warning.

paid $52oz happy to see you find a cheaper 1oz buynow on trademe,NZ mint,Perth mint etc because fact is the price of bullion doesn't move anywhere as much as the paper

[shasta]

JBMurc

Here's a nice silver/gold explorer with high grades reminds me a little of HLX's South American gold assets or TRY a few years back?

It's ELT, & looks like the sort of company you'd be interested in ;)

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=ELT&E=ASX&N=232518
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=ELT&E=ASX&N=232509
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=ELT&E=ASX&N=232393

ELT @ 23.5c has an MCap of $19.4m, & Cash of $10.8m, EV= $8.6m

Gold, Silver, Base metals & REE projects, interesting company

[JBmurc]

JBMurc

Here's a nice silver/gold explorer with high grades reminds me a little of HLX's South American gold assets or TRY a few years back?

It's ELT, & looks like the sort of company you'd be interested in ;)

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=ELT&E=ASX&N=232518
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=ELT&E=ASX&N=232509
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=ELT&E=ASX&N=232393

ELT @ 23.5c has an MCap of $19.4m, & Cash of $10.8m, EV= $8.6m

Gold, Silver, Base metals & REE projects, interesting company

mmm very nice their current Manantiales project not far away from the TRY plant that could take more feedstock in future..
so many great undervalued resource shares going these days bring back the market interest of the mid 2000's compared to the current non interested weak marketplace

[Skol]

Silver down $2.50. Is this the move down to $22 as the pennant's tip approaches?

Silver will reach new highs - in 2034. Fine, if you don't mind waiting, I'll make a note in my diary.

[Skol]

paid $52oz happy to see you find a cheaper 1oz buynow on trademe,NZ mint,Perth mint etc because fact is the price of bullion doesn't move anywhere as much as the paper

Only down 32% in 2 weeks. You should've bought USD, can't think of anything that's done worse than silver.

I see gold's getting a thrashing at the moment as well, if it makes you feel better.

Silver's performance in NZD over the last few weeks must be a real horror story.

[JBmurc]

Silver down $2.50. Is this the move down to $22 as the pennant's tip approaches?

Silver will reach new highs - in 2034. Fine, if you don't mind waiting, I'll make a note in my diary.

2034 yeah don't think your find Silver still being mined if it value doesn't increase with the costs of finding an every depleting resource

Epithermal deposition is a geological term that accurately describes silver's distribution within the earth. As stated above, it means quite simply that the majority of silver is deposited near the surface of the earth's crust, and that the further one digs the less silver he will find to extract. This necessitates that silver will become more and more expensive as time waxes on, as it will become more and more expensive to mine. Just as the price of oil has risen dramatically because of a lack of easily exploitable oil and fears of peak production, so too will silver one day rise in price accordingly, as it is also an integral yet finite resource of the world.

[Skol]

Just as the price of oil has risen dramatically because of a lack of easily exploitable oil and fears of peak production, so too will silver one day rise in price accordingly, as it is also an integral yet finite resource of the world.

Incorrect, oil has got cheaper over the last few decades on an inflation adjusted basis, just like gold and silver it's artificially high because of speculation.

[JBmurc]

Only down 32% in 2 weeks. You should've bought USD, can't think of anything that's done worse than silver.

I see gold's getting a thrashing at the moment as well, if it makes you feel better.

Silver's performance in NZD over the last few weeks must be a real horror story.

really I'd think if you could buy well known bullion for 48-49NZD your'd be doing well currently on Trademe there is 7-8 guys bidding upwards to 63oz NZD the lowest 52oz with days to run....now why don't you actual back up the talk with some fact i.e some cheap real silver for sale???

[elZorro]

This might cheer you up too, JB, found on Resourceworld. The next page confirms that silver's steep rise in value in early May resulted in buyer exhaustion, and had to be corrected by a move back to near the 200ma, and that it's rebuilding from there. Hope you can read this, cannot cut/paste.

[JBmurc]

Incorrect, oil has got cheaper over the last few decades on an inflation adjusted basis, just like gold and silver it's artificially high because of speculation.

those dirty speculators making all the world's precious resources more expensive...

-Inflation adjusted basis ?? yeah your correct in the fact if used a real asset like gold silver Oil is cheap today use the USD or other paper currency different story

no can read Elzorro but I believe you some really good buying out there at the moment hindsight I should have sold up all my shares in feb-march to be buying backin now......as for the bullion there was a small window to sell at 70oz NZD to now be buying back in 48-52 now but that would be trading an taxable so the bullion will stay as my kiwisaver long term average cost will rise along with the silver price till the 000's

[Skol]

those dirty speculators making all the world's precious resources more expensive

In 2008 oil got to $147, it was obvious it wasn't demand, it couldn't possibly have been, so it was speculation. Eventually oil crashed 78%.

We're going to see a similar effect soon with gold and silver when the excitement wears off.

Down 9% in 2 days trade. Going down in flames. Tell you why the goldbugs have fallen out of love with charts, because they're not telling them what they want to see.

[JBmurc]

In 2008 oil got to $147, it was obvious it wasn't demand, it couldn't possibly have been, so it was speculation. Eventually oil crashed 78%.

We're going to see a similar effect soon with gold and silver when the excitement wears off.

yeah and those same speculators shorted OIL along with the GFC smashing short term demand and pushed it way below fair value which it return to within months Gold an silver will both be flat to down till Aug IMHO

[CAM]

.

Silver's performance in NZD over the last few weeks must be a real horror story.

Would hardly call this a horror story


http://charts.infomine.com/multivariantcharts/showchart.aspx?mv=1&f=f&r=1m&c=csilver.xnzd.uoz

[CAM]

and here it is for the last 3 months

http://charts.infomine.com/multivariantcharts/showchart.aspx?mv=1&f=f&r=3m&c=csilver.xnzd.uoz

[CAM]

and just for the hell of it...the last year

http://charts.infomine.com/multivariantcharts/showchart.aspx?mv=1&f=f&r=1y&c=csilver.xnzd.uoz

[CAM]

.

Down 9% in 2 days trade. Going down in flames. Tell you why the goldbugs have fallen out of love with charts, because they're not telling them what they want to see.

yep look at those flames.....

http://charts.infomine.com/multivariantcharts/showchart.aspx?mv=1&f=f&r=1y&c=cgold.xnzd.uoz

[Skol]

I would, silver down 9% in 2 days and down from NZ61 to NZ $42, that's down 31% in the last few weeks.

Silver just closed on its lows, bad ju ju for the next session.

[CAM]

I guess what I was trying to show is that they are inherently volatile and 9% in 2 days is nothing out of the ordinary.
You could probably find dozens of examples of this size fluctuation.

[Skol]

Doesn't appear to be much upside today. I expect if silver gets to $40 again there'll be a wave of selling as chastened punters who bought between US$40/50 get out. Could precipitate a severe correction.

Maybe the Investor's Lord's Prayer is in order.
It goes something like this:

"Dear Lord, please make silver (or gold, property, oil, dotcom stocks etc) go back to $40 so I can get my money back and I promise I'll never do it again. Amen"

[shasta]

In 2008 oil got to $147, it was obvious it wasn't demand, it couldn't possibly have been, so it was speculation. Eventually oil crashed 78%.

We're going to see a similar effect soon with gold and silver when the excitement wears off.

Down 9% in 2 days trade. Going down in flames. Tell you why the goldbugs have fallen out of love with charts, because they're not telling them what they want to see.

Oil was then pushed back below $40, again it wasnt based on excessive demand, u cant have ya cake & eat it Skol, Oil got oversold & now its back up to $100/bbl

People will now look at $80/bbl & think its not so bad all round. Silver is volatile & needs to retest support at $31/oz but i would suggest should it do that it will continue a steady climb back to $40/oz.

Hows the USA debt going? have they stopped the $75b monthly bail out yet, must be nearly thru the $600b injection?

[Skol]

Debt,schmet, the punters that bought silver at top dollar don't care about that, they just want their money back.

[shasta]

Debt,schmet, the punters that bought silver at top dollar don't care about that, they just want their money back.

Silver was round $17/oz when i bought some 1/oz coins, so dont worry about the silver bulls, im already looking into Zinc companies, as Zinc supply will be in deficit soon, happy to point you towards some good stocks Skol ;)

[JBmurc]

Silver was round $17/oz when i bought some 1/oz coins, so dont worry about the silver bulls, im already looking into Zinc companies, as Zinc supply will be in deficit soon, happy to point you towards some good stocks Skol ;)

I brought the bulk of my silver in 08/09 to $10-17oz I was also very keen to buy in bulk back in 2002 but never knew how to go about invested in the sector outside my MMN holding this was when Silver traded round $6oz .....Isn't Zinc mostly a by product with copper,lead,silver miners etc I don't think I've every held a Zinc focused miner.....

[shasta]

I brought the bulk of my silver in 08/09 to $10-17oz I was also very keen to buy in bulk back in 2002 but never knew how to go about invested in the sector outside my MMN holding this was when Silver traded round $6oz .....Isn't Zinc mostly a by product with copper,lead,silver miners etc I don't think I've every held a Zinc focused miner.....

PEM, KZL, are Zinc miners, & RXL (back on the LOW EV list this week) has the only large zinc project in Oz, NOT held by majors

[Skol]

Hows the USA debt going? have they stopped the $75b monthly bail out yet, must be nearly thru the $600b injection?

Don't you think Bernanke's thought of the debt? He's going to look a real dick if he appears in front of the House Budget Committee and says he got it completely wrong and QE3 is required.

Bernanke would be impeached.

[JBmurc]

Don't you think Bernanke's thought of the debt? He's going to look a real dick if he appears in front of the House Budget Committee and says he got it completely wrong and QE3 is required.

Bernanke would be impeached.

well that would make a change for the better..

-Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the U.S. debt ceiling shouldn’t be used as a bargaining chip to force budget cuts.


-The annual budget shortfall is projected to reach $1.4 trillion, matching the previous record in fiscal 2009, according to the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office. In the fiscal year 2010 ended last Sept. 30, the annual budget deficit totaled $1.3 trillion, the second largest.....

[JBmurc]

"It takes as much as 80 tons of silver to produce 1
gigawatt (GW) of solar power. At present only about 7
GW of solar-generated energy have been installed. But
by the year 2020, India plans to increase its solar output
to 20 GW; China to 30 GW; and the U.S. to 30 GW.

On a worldwide basis, solar power-generating capacity
by 2020 could surge to 20 times the amount of current
capacity. Solar?s share of annual silver demand could
reach 130 million ounces per year around 2014 and
continue at those or higher levels through 2020."

[Skol]

Haven't you read about photography? Silver was too expensive, so they found a substitute, same as they'll do for solar panels.

[JBmurc]

Haven't you read about photography? Silver was too expensive, so they found a substitute, same as they'll do for solar panels.

Silver-based photography is based on light striking sensitive silver-halide crystals suspended on a film. Through use of chemical ‘developers’ the differences in light intensity form negative images which can then be processed into paper pictures by using silver-imbedded paper. Approximately 5,000 color photographs can be taken using one ounce of silver.

Because of the growth of digital photography, the use of silver-based imaging by consumers has been steadily dropping for almost a decade. Although many had predicted that consumers would turn digital images into paper – using silver halide products – many picture- takers either keep their images in digital form or use low-cost, ink-jet printers.

Nonetheless, because of its extreme accuracy and cost effectiveness, silver-halide films are still chosen for some applications. For example, medical X-Ray technicians, especially those in developing countries, often prefer silver-based pictures because of their low cost and high accuracy. In addition, many motion picture makers still prefer silver- halide film over digital, because of its low cost, excellent resolution and true colour properties

[Skol]

Have a look at this USD really turning to confetti all right, oil plunging at the moment, the dullards that own gold and silver are next. Think I'll buy some more USD.

www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/usdollar-index/

Jim Rogers will be eating some crow at the moment.

[JBmurc]

Yeah keep buying those dollars SKOL

Gold Silver up well in AUD/NZD

Bloomberg US debt crisis-David stockman former OMB Director under reagan

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yBtfktG3T2U

[Skol]

"It takes as much as 80 tons of silver to produce 1
gigawatt (GW) of solar power. At present only about 7
GW of solar-generated energy have been installed. But
by the year 2020, India plans to increase its solar output
to 20 GW; China to 30 GW; and the U.S. to 30 GW.

On a worldwide basis, solar power-generating capacity
by 2020 could surge to 20 times the amount of current
capacity. Solar?s share of annual silver demand could
reach 130 million ounces per year around 2014 and
continue at those or higher levels through 2020."

When you're at school you learn that if things get expensive, you find another way of doing things or don't buy it - period. Maybe you didn't learn this JB. One of the reasons solar power just doesn't tick the boxes is because it's too expensive.

I see the CFTC are getting some heat to increase the deposits on speculation, especially oil, put up 12%. This will probably cause a stagnation in all commodities

[CAM]

QE3
http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011/06/gross-rosenberg-qe3-target-rates.html#ixzz1PP9IM1Rf

[JBmurc]

When you're at school you learn that if things get expensive, you find another way of doing things or don't buy it - period. Maybe you didn't learn this JB. One of the reasons solar power just doesn't tick the boxes is because it's too expensive.BAH BAH

I see the CFTC are getting some heat to increase the deposits on speculation, especially oil, put up 12%. This will probably cause a stagnation in all commodities

well many voters in Japan Germany are against Nuclear where's the energy going come from if they shut the nuclear plants down?? Windmill?-need massive amount's of rare earths.... I think it's a purely politicized issue which they will spend up large in solar to keep in office but still keep nuclear running to meet 90% of the energy demands...
--Solar summit--
www.solarpraxis.de/en/conferences/solar-industry-summit-middle-east-2011/general-information/

the CTFC can increase margins to 90% IMHO won't affect the metal real costs to extract or the demand from an ever growing human demand just look at the records many of the mints are breaking in sales of Silver bullion

[Skol]

From Incredible Charts:

Failure of support at $33 would also suggest that gold is likely to weaken. Recovery above $39 is less likely but would indicate another advance.

Also says USD index breakout above 76.5 would signal a primary up-trend.

[JBmurc]

"S&P cuts Greece's rating one step closer to default."


When adding in all of the money owed to cover future liabilities in entitlement programs the US is actually in worse financial shape than Greece and other debt-laden European countries, Pimco's Bill Gross told CNBC Monday. Much of the public focus is on the nation's public debt, which is $14.3 trillion. But that doesn't include money guaranteed for Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security, which comes to close to $50 trillion, according to government figures.

[Skol]

"S&P cuts Greece's rating one step closer to default."


When adding in all of the money owed to cover future liabilities in entitlement programs the US is actually in worse financial shape than Greece and other debt-laden European countries, Pimco's Bill Gross told CNBC Monday. Much of the public focus is on the nation's public debt, which is $14.3 trillion. But that doesn't include money guaranteed for Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security, which comes to close to $50 trillion, according to government figures.

Don't see Bill Gross buying silver or gold though, he's far too smart. With all this debt/downgrade stuff already known gold and silver don't budge, which can only mean one thing -they're gonna hit the skids.

[JBmurc]

Well people are if they weren't why is the trend in comex inventories dropping like a stone......

www.24hgold.com/english/interactive_chart.aspx?title=COMEX%20WAREHOUSES%20 REGISTERED%20SILVER&etfcode=COMEX%20WAREHOUSES%20REGISTERED&etfcodecom=SILVER

[Skol]

Then have a read of this about the silver price. ETF holdings dropped to the lowest level in 7 months.

www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/commodities/2011/06/17/Crude_Oil_May_Bounce_with_SP_500_Fading_Tail_Risk_ Threatens_Gold.html

[JBmurc]

Then have a read of this about the silver price. ETF holdings dropped to the lowest level in 7 months.

www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/commodities/2011/06/17/Crude_Oil_May_Bounce_with_SP_500_Fading_Tail_Risk_ Threatens_Gold.html

Yeah like the ETF's are backed with the total amount of real silver SLV has been a great scam for JP Morgan take the money buy 10-20% real silver if any.
the metal ETF are really just paper you can't get real silver for your ETF so why would JPM bother to hold any for it ..this is why you don't see the comex invertories spike higher on ETF sell down .....the SLV etf is actually very bad for the underlining metal as it take funds away from real silver ,Silver shares etc

[Skol]

This is why the gold and silver fans have fallen out of love with charts, normally a favourite pastime. Heads in the sand pretending it's not happening.


www.dailymarkets.com/stock/2011/06/18/buy-zsl-18-30-update-gold-miners-silver-and-sp-500/

Lower highs and lower lows for silver and you know what that means. Right JB?

Better buy some USD.

[Skol]

From Barrons: ( mainstream media, not the real deal)

"Silver has drifted sideways since its dramatic fall into its low in May and is in much worse technical shape than gold. A small zone of chart support between $26 and $31 an ounce is possible but nothing really substantial until way down near the $20 an ounce area."

[Skol]

www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-22/silver-coin-sales-booming-at-perth-mint-as-investors-desert-paper-money.html

Notice the para. that says "A lot of buying is by people new to the market...."

The suckers left holding the baby.

[Pumice]

July 15 eh, will be interesting to see if this will have much of an impact on gold and siver prices.

As a result of the recently enacted Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, U.S.-based retail forex dealers such as OANDA are prohibited from offering leveraged trading in precious metals to retail clients after Friday, July 15, 2011.

As a client trading with our OANDA Corporate (U.S.) Division, you will not be able to trade our four precious metal pairs (XAU/USD, XAG/USD, XAU/JPY, XAG/JPY) on a leveraged basis, effective end of day July 15, 2011. Leveraged trading in other currency pairs will remain unaffected, with the same margin requirements.

We are working hard to minimize the impact of this restriction on our clients' trading. For example, if you are not a citizen or resident of the U.S.A. you will be able to transition soon to our OANDA Europe Division without needing to close your open positions. We will send a detailed email soon with instructions on how to migrate your account.

We sincerely regret any inconvenience caused by this change in legal requirements. If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact our Customer Service Team at frontdesk@oanda.com.

We appreciate your business with OANDA.

[peat]

regulators are so bizarre...

[JBmurc]

Silver will be the biggest winner among 15 commodities in the second half, rallying as much as 46 percent by Dec. 31 to match the all-time high $49.79 set in April, the median in a Bloomberg survey of more than 100 analysts and traders shows."


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-26/longest-losing-streak-since-2008-ending-for-commodities-as-futures-surge.html

[Skol]

Silver will be the biggest winner among 15 commodities in the second half, rallying as much as 46 percent by Dec. 31 to match the all-time high $49.79 set in April, the median in a Bloomberg survey of more than 100 analysts and traders shows."


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-26/longest-losing-streak-since-2008-ending-for-commodities-as-futures-surge.html

These are probably the same traders that predicted oil would be $150 by (northern) summer, which it is now.
Desperation setting in when you need the psychics with their crystal balls to bolster your case.

[Skol]

Barron's magazine report that 60 tons of silver was sold from the iShares Silver Trust last week. What did you say about us running out JB?

[JBmurc]

Barron's magazine report that 60 tons of silver was sold from the iShares Silver Trust last week. What did you say about us running out JB?

Oh noooo I see year on year Silver bullion sales are soaring .

[JBmurc]

Gata-june 11
We have a very tough time understanding those bearish arguments against silver. We look at the real silver market, and based on the supply and demand data coming from the real, physical markets for silver, the fundamentals are only getting stronger. And yet there exists another silver market, which as we’ve shown, is not very connected to the physical realm at all. And though silver investors have for decades suffered the tyranny of a rigged paper monopoly over silver price discovery, it appears to us that the tides are turning. In the age of QE to infinity

www.gata.org/files/Sprott-CaveatVenditor-06-2011.pdf

[JBmurc]

THEORETICAL MODEL

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/Bubble.gif


THIS TIME

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/Ag512new.gif

well nice charts from P but fact is Silver isn't paying along with the THEORETICAL MODEL is it...? we have had the blow off phase now we are back in a trading range getting ready to takeoff once more
IMHO SILVER is currently in a trading range round the 33-37 range much like we had back in the 16-20 before takeoff the smart money is once again finding it's way back into Silver...we are moving into the 2 phase $100+ target

[Phaedrus]

Return to "normal" eh JB?

[JBmurc]

Return to "normal" eh JB?

No more likely the mean IMHO

If the model is correct Silver will fall to low 20's etc I guess we will just have to wait an see in a few more months

The Silver Platter Opportunity
http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1310056086.php

[JBmurc]

hey P checkout the 36yr Gold price to the 34yr Silver chart (be great to see your skills with these to charts)

Fact -there is round 12-13 times more Silver in the ground than Gold (current ratio 42)
Fact -there is much more above ground Gold in the world than Silver much more.
Fact -The U.S. Geological Survey estimates that silver will become mostly extinct by 2020

[JBmurc]

Draw your own conclusions regarding bubbliciousness. Still I can’t help but getting a little misty when I see the paperbug’s concern for the silverbugs. Thanks guys, but your sentiments are about as insane as people on the Titanic screaming to those already in life boats, “Come back!!! This ship is unsinkable and we’ve got technical analysis to PROVE it!” Sure you do, but methinks you’re just after our lifeboat.

http://acrossthestreetnet.wordpress.com/2011/04/14/why-silver-is-still-the-best-revenge/

[Skol]

USD way,way up.
Silver plunging.

Maybe silver's in the midst of crash #2, the return to the mean.

[elZorro]

The Moneychanger has been predicting a general shareprice drop for some time now. Last night, this was part of the message, he's usually fairly accurate.



All in, it appears that the GOLD PRICE (http://goldprice.org/) has now forged a bottom off its May high. Trading range is from $1,480 to $1,560. Wherever this rally takes gold, it's not likely to trade below $1,510 again.

How is it, you may ask, that GOLD (http://goldprice.org/), which has been paralleling stocks and moving with them contrary to the US dollar, would suddenly rise with the dollar while stocks stumble? I reckon the financial crisis brewing in Italy grips so many hearts with panic that they are fleeing to liquidity, i.e., dollars and gold, and out of stocks. Unfortunately, that applies to silver also, which moves against gold as stocks move. When stocks wax strong, so silver waxes strong against gold, and vice versa. In times of panic, silver follows stocks.

[CAM]

USD way,way up.
Silver plunging.

Maybe silver's in the midst of crash #2, the return to the mean.

Silver plunging.... really?
Out of curiosity what do you use to check the price of silver?

http://www.kitco.com/images/live/nysilver.gif (http://charts.kitco.com/KitcoCharts/index.jsp?Symbol=SILVER&Currency=USD&multiCurrency=true&langId=EN&utm_source=kitco&utm_medium=banner&utm_content=20110407_iCharts_live_silver_ny_chart&utm_campaign=iCharts)


Since its big drop it looks to be going sideways, although with a slight downtrend to the naked eye....and plenty of volatility

http://charts.infomine.com/multivariantcharts/showchart.aspx?mv=1&f=f&r=1y&c=csilver.xusd.uoz

[Skol]

I use livecharts and when I checked last night silver had fallen from 36.90 to around 34.70. It's recovered a little since then but any recovery will be shortlived because all those that were silly enough to buy between 40/50 will be breaking their necks to get out.
See, the silver price is more about shoring up the family finances than M1, M2, North Korea, running out of silver, PIIGs, USD, debt or anything else. The price is still heading south.

[JBmurc]

Back to 36.41 hardly crashing or even thinking about heading south will see silver smash $40 once again this year

[drillfix]

Cant believe you guys are still debating whether the price is going up or down LOL

Obviously the price is consolidating sideways in a trading range. And No clear trend in place at the moment except very short term ones.


Tell you what,

Here is a handy tool that I use with FireFox, the best free little Addon I reckon.

Check it out.

https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/live-gold/

The above addon allows you to view Gold, Silver, Copper and other base metals prices as they change to the time frame you want. ie 5min or 15min or hourly. As well as FX options as well. Very handy to have it sitting there in the bottom of your browsers status bar. A real handy tool.

Plus you can right click gold or silver whatever and choose to see a chart either in 24Hr chart, 30 Day, 60 Day or 1 year chart of your choice of metal.

Whilst your there, also add on FoxClocks which gives you selections of world times so you can see when markets start up etc etc.

Hope this helps. Some of you already have this but in the meantime for those who do not, Have a nice day :)

[JBmurc]

yeah doesn't work with me Mac drilly.......but yes Silver isn't making much direction but it's certainly not crashing looking at GOLD which SILVER usually always follows or outperforms SILVER is lagging at present time but IMHO it will soon catch up..

[JBmurc]

3464Silver the 600yr chart--priced in 1998 USD in the blue line -gold to silver ratio in the gold line

[drillfix]

yeah doesn't work with me Mac drilly......

Hi JB,

Sure it does.

Check this out >>> http://support.mozilla.com/en-US/kb/Installing%20Firefox%20on%20Mac

After that, go to the previous link and grab the addon :)

[gazprom1]

I use livecharts and when I checked last night silver had fallen from 36.90 to around 34.70. It's recovered a little since then but any recovery will be shortlived because all those that were silly enough to buy between 40/50 will be breaking their necks to get out.
See, the silver price is more about shoring up the family finances than M1, M2, North Korea, running out of silver, PIIGs, USD, debt or anything else. The price is still heading south.

Hey Skol,

Looks like those guys that you talk about that bought at 40-50 are getting out at 38.07 this morning.....silver up 6% overnight - gold up 1%. Not sure it is is the middle of crash number two as it looks like it could well test $40 this week. You may need to revisit some of those comments of the past few weeks.

Gazprom

[JBmurc]

since the sell-off(thanks to several hikes in margins) the trading range high has been 38.65 -----last night it got to 38.53 current price $38.30
Think if it breaks 38.65 it will blow through $40 once more..
Silver isn't by any means expensive the 600yr chart show in 98 dollars Silver has a very long way back to it's average price ,if you take in the fact over the last 400yrs modern man advancements in exploration tech has help keep production ahead of demand that is till the last few decades now the likes of the USA has to import Silver an even at these higher prices of late very few large discoveries of Silver are being discovered..

[drillfix]

Hey Skol,
silver up 6% overnight - gold up 1%. Not sure it is is the middle of crash number two as it looks like it could well test $40 this week. You may need to revisit some of those comments of the past few weeks.

Gazprom


Here Here Gaz,

There is already enough cloak and daggers, smoke and mirrors in the market without having more unclear head space calling judgements that are in fact and reality out of more emotion than fact. Or arguing for the sake of enjoying an argument or opinion.

Each to their own though no doubt.

[JBmurc]

Silver toot toot $40 overnight I think so...

[Huang Chung]

JB, as our resident silver guru, you might want to put Investigator Resources (IVR) in your little black book. Listened to MD John Anderson's presentation at the Noosa Mining and Exploration Conference today. He's a geo, and the enthusiasm for what he does is infectious. Went and had a chat with him later on. They've got a silver prospect on the Eyre Peninsula in Sth Australia called Peterlumbo. He's actually developed a different geological interpretation of the Souther Gawler Craton, which is helping them identify targets.

Haven't brought home the bacon yet, but worth keeping an eye on I reckon. Looks like they'll have to do a CR pretty soon.

http://www.investres.com.au/_dbase_upl/IVR_Peterlumbo_Project_Summary__200411.pdf

[JBmurc]

yeah allgood HC -GSC is another worth alook I might have to put up another Watchlist on my trading account -Silver plays
-of the top of the head it would be made up of-CCU,ARD,SVL,GSC,AYN,IVR,TRY,PEX,BSM etc

[shasta]

yeah allgood HC -GSC is another worth alook I might have to put up another Watchlist on my trading account -Silver plays
-of the top of the head it would be made up of-CCU,ARD,SVL,GSC,AYN,IVR,TRY,PEX,BSM etc

Add in ELT, TRF, PDZ, to the list

[Skol]

Hey Guys, ... :)

And they'll sell you gold or silver and take your useless worthless fiat money. LOL

[rev]

... :)

Great, now we have bullion websites plugging their services... there goes the neighbourhood.

[JBmurc]

yeah I see Mygold has a banner on Hotcopper be best if you want to plug your website to pay for a banner on ST

[shasta]

yeah I see Mygold has a banner on Hotcopper be best if you want to plug your website to pay for a banner on ST

Or piss off to another forum that pumps & dumps.

Skol, up to his old tricks ;)

[Skol]

Silver down $2 in the last 24 hours.

[JBmurc]

PGM reveiw-kitco 25th july
Silver rose 2.64% this past week even in the face of seeing a blatant massive manipulation attempt. We’ve traded silver in the past with some great successes but it’s been a while now.

I tell subscribers it’s just not worth trying to trade that often since it can drop so quickly that I can hardly put in a sell order let alone send one to subscribers as well before the price is several dollars lower.

This past week we saw a sale of 250 million ounces of silver in 1 minute. This is equivalent to 30% of the worlds yearly production. Even the Comex warehouses only have about 100 million ounces in storage.

If you think someone would dump that much silver on the market at once for any other reason than to knock silver down then good luck to you. Nobody even has that much silver to sell, it was all a paper game which worked for the short-term.

The point is as always. Buy the physical silver and don’t worry about it. It will be much much higher and in the hundreds of dollars before this fiasco is through.

[Skol]

Always someone elses fault. Why don't you just admit someone or some entity doesn't want to own heaps of silver. Probably the punters who bought in the 40's last time around breathing a sigh of relief as they got their money back.

[JBmurc]

Always someone elses fault. Why don't you just admit someone or some entity doesn't want to own heaps of silver. Probably the punters who bought in the 40's last time around breathing a sigh of relief as they got their money back.

LOL you just need to change "Silver" to "USD" to your first sentence an that would make some sense

fact is the entity is selling PAPER SILVER not REAL SILVER BULLION big difference...

the entire world silver mining production is only about 700 million oz. of silver annually,yet in one mintue one could buy/sell 250moz paper silver so what in three mintues one could selling more than world mine production .....

BIS Changed Silver Data( silver fraud by the western world's banks)
http://silverstockreport.com/2011/BIS-DATA.html

[Skol]

So what? You read what I posted about gold. Only 4 countries in the world have more gold then the gold ETF's, that's if the ETF's have all the gold they say they have. When punters pull the plug on the ETF's something very dramatic's going to happen.

You can buy paper anything these days, paper houses if you like, what's the difference?

Have you been taking a few judicious profits just in case it come to the worst, a last minute deal and gold and silver nosedive?

[JBmurc]

So what? You read what I posted about gold. Only 4 countries in the world have more gold then the gold ETF's, that's if the ETF's have all the gold they say they have. When punters pull the plug on the ETF's something very dramatic's going to happen.

You can buy paper anything these days, paper houses if you like, what's the difference?

Have you been taking a few judicious profits just in case it come to the worst, a last minute deal and gold and silver nosedive?

A paper house I guess if you buy like a share in a property development etc that states in the contract that you do not actually own any real estate abit like ETF's

how about doubling up our bet to $200 I believe silver will be higher that the current price of $39.90 an much more likely to be closer to $60oz by 31st DEC
rather than our 26.70 bet as theres no-way silver's going see the 20's again....

If I had an spare cash I'd be buying more Silver bullion an good Silver/gold shares
ARD PXG my two favs

[CAM]

Have you been taking a few judicious profits just in case it come to the worst, a last minute deal and gold and silver nosedive?

I think there will be a deal done.... but all it does is kick the can down the road a bit further.

[JBmurc]

yeah for sure US will lift the debt ceiling PGM's will pull back before surging much higher ,unlike the rest of the world that is in major debt problems the US won't face any austerity measures so the problem will not be fixed just making the debt bubble even larger
An as for the worry on the credit rating agencies like there not paid what to say.

Throughout the US housing bubble, rating agencies armed the investment banks with the highest possible ratings for investment products secured by US subprime residential mortgages of dubious credit risk value.

These so-called “Ninja” loans (“no income, no job, no questions asked”) were bundled, repackaged and on-sold by the investment banks to the rest of the world as a premium class of financial investment – thanks to their AAA credit rating.

[JBmurc]

Silver manipulation Silver Algos

www.youtube.com/watch?v=xSLIDJ3HZHA&feature=uploademail

[denpal]

http://news.silverseek.com/CliveMaund/1313474760.php

Wave 3 up about to start........keep a close eye on silver.

[Skol]

http://news.silverseek.com/CliveMaund/1313474760.php

Wave 3 up about to start........keep a close eye on silver.

Clive Maund, one of the psychics. What else is he gonna say? The party's over, sell all of it? LOL

[JBmurc]

Yes Silver has been very Quiet over the last few months think we'll see Silver once again get major notice to finish up the year with new highs

[denpal]

Clive Maund, one of the psychics. What else is he gonna say? The party's over, sell all of it? LOL

Skol that is more than a little childish. He does say sell actually, when it looks like a sell.

[Huang Chung]

JB, as our resident silver guru, you might want to put Investigator Resources (IVR) in your little black book. Listened to MD John Anderson's presentation at the Noosa Mining and Exploration Conference today. He's a geo, and the enthusiasm for what he does is infectious. Went and had a chat with him later on. They've got a silver prospect on the Eyre Peninsula in Sth Australia called Peterlumbo. He's actually developed a different geological interpretation of the Souther Gawler Craton, which is helping them identify targets.

Haven't brought home the bacon yet, but worth keeping an eye on I reckon. Looks like they'll have to do a CR pretty soon.

http://www.investres.com.au/_dbase_upl/IVR_Peterlumbo_Project_Summary__200411.pdf


IVR reported a silver/lead discovery at Paris/Peterlumbo today.

http://www.investres.com.au/_dbase_upl/IVR_ASX_Investigator_announces_high_grade_silver_l ead_discovery_at_Paris_South_Australia_18_Aug_11.p df

Interesting that a couple of the intercepts ended in mineralisation, and apparently before hitting bedrock.

[shasta]

IVR reported a silver/lead discovery at Paris/Peterlumbo today.

http://www.investres.com.au/_dbase_upl/IVR_ASX_Investigator_announces_high_grade_silver_l ead_discovery_at_Paris_South_Australia_18_Aug_11.p df

Interesting that a couple of the intercepts ended in mineralisation, and apparently before hitting bedrock.

Well spotted HC

Ive been looking through that ann myself, certainly worth having on watch along with PEX & ELT as high grade silver plays.

WRM is well worth a look as well, decent size silver resource + some gold, bit outside the LOW EV limit, but looks interesting

[denpal]

Nice breakout.

Monsterboxes of maples have increased from $25,500 to $30,000 in the last two weeks here in NZ.

[denpal]

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/8/18_Eric_Sprott_-_The_Price_of_Silver_Should_be_%24110_to_%24120_To day.html

It is well worth listening to in full.

I found a couple of things he said extremely interesting:

1. Soros in an interview in Germany said that governments have either got to print money or there'll be a depression, and either way you need to own gold AND SILVER. Sprott said that was the first time he'd heard Soros mention silver and that he interpreted that as meaning Soros was coming in to silver.

2. Sprott said that at the recent conference he was at, Jim Sinclair said that once the HUI clears 600 it will go for it and to "just buy like hell".

If you don't know who Sprott is, it is worthwhile finding out and listening to what he says. I think he is a billionaire now, and has been in gold and silver since the low points.

[shasta]

After Silver's 5% jump back over $42/oz should be a good day for AYN & CCU.

Others that may move on silver's sentiment include: WRM, IVR, PEX, ELT, GRM, ARD & SVL

[asc4]

So silver was pretty stable over the chaos of the last few weeks, it didn't move down alot considering, but moved up with commodities rising (I.E. Friday). So would it be fair to say that possibly that the currency side of silver is the support, yet commodity prices/demand is what fuels the rises? Gold has outpaced silver in RECENT times, purely on currency status (safety). Ideas? or have I looked at this the wrong way.

[JBmurc]

A good interview another smart man that likes Silver bullion

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/74278594/

[ELYOB]

IVR has gone vertical.... trading impressive .... 22c high so far today[145% up]

[JBmurc]

IVR has gone vertical.... trading impressive .... 22c high so far today[145% up]

yeah very nice never even looked into IVR great gains for the day

[shasta]

After Silver's 5% jump back over $42/oz should be a good day for AYN & CCU.

Others that may move on silver's sentiment include: WRM, IVR, PEX, ELT, GRM, ARD & SVL

JBMurc - IVR has been discussed on this thread though & on the LOW EV thread ;)

[JBmurc]

Only so many hrs in the day shasta holding nine different shares at the mo

[Huang Chung]

yeah very nice never even looked into IVR great gains for the day

Damn...talked the talk but didn't walk the walk.

Worth keeping an eye out for any decent pullback in the weeks ahead.

[ELYOB]

Maybe the day traders are pushing it up , could settle lower in days to come ....??

[JBmurc]

Damn...talked the talk but didn't walk the walk.

Worth keeping an eye out for any decent pullback in the weeks ahead.

yes certainly worth keeping an eye still happy to have brought CCU for my silver exponsure
how may times have we seen an explorer go through the roof to good drill results to then see them lose most of the gains within weeks
If I did hold IVR I would have sold on that rise but thats the trader in me.

[elZorro]

yes certainly worth keeping an eye still happy to have brought CCU for my silver exponsure
how may times have we seen an explorer go through the roof to good drill results to then see them lose most of the gains within weeks
If I did hold IVR I would have sold on that rise but thats the trader in me.

I just had a quick look at IVR too, very impressive upgrade to their Mcap. Most of those small cap shares could do the same at any stage, guess that's what keeps us going.. Did some quick maths though: the ore is not too deep, but silver at $45/oz times the best grades mentioned, still only equivalent to a 0.6oz/tonne gold average orebody as far as gross returns. They started with a low Mcap, could go higher no problem.

JB: like the new moniker, does this mean you're fairly confident with your share picks at the moment? :)

[JBmurc]

I just had a quick look at IVR too, very impressive upgrade to their Mcap. Most of those small cap shares could do the same at any stage, guess that's what keeps us going.. Did some quick maths though: the ore is not too deep, but silver at $45/oz times the best grades mentioned, still only equivalent to a 0.6oz/tonne gold average orebody as far as gross returns. They started with a low Mcap, could go higher no problem.

JB: like the new moniker, does this mean you're fairly confident with your share picks at the moment? :)

yes very much so, been awhile now since I've been so confident the portfolio will move well north of the neg for the 11/12 fy
So much money on the sidelines don't think the resource bull market is over just yet the next phase on it's way for many unloved shares..

[Huang Chung]

Trafford (TRF) commence exploration along strike from Investigator's Paris/Pererlumbo discovery.

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01214853

[JBmurc]

JP Morgan has increased their eligible COMEX silver inventories by 225% from 180,247 ounces to 586,381 ounces OVERNIGHT!

This is highly unusual as we have only seen 1 other deposit into JP Morgan's eligible vault in the past 4 months.
No-one, and we mean no-one, has trusted JP Morgan enough to deposit their silver into JPM COMEX vaults this summer.

Could this be a sign that JPM is gearing up for a massive amount of longs actually standing for delivery in September?

http://silverdoctors.blogspot.com/2011/09/jp-morgan-increases-eligible-silver.html

[denpal]

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/9/8_Embry_-_JP_Morgan_Trapped_Short_in_Silver%2C_Gold_Strongl y_Bid.html

8 September 2011

Embry - JP Morgan Trapped Short in Silver, Gold Strongly Bid


With continued volatility in both the gold and silver markets, today King World News interviewed John Embry, Chief Investment Strategist of the $10 billion strong Sprott Asset Management. When asked about the action in gold and what he is doing with his own money Embry replied, “I’ve been buying gold shares, I mean this is no different than the smash that we had a couple weeks ago when they (the cartel) took it from $1,900 to $1,700. One of the reasons for the takedown is they know what’s coming. You’ve got the Fed meeting on the 20th and 21st but they are not going to solve anything. It’s the same suspects doing the same games and it will end the same way.”

John Embry continues:


“I don’t know whether the bottom is in or whether we have to put up with a little more aggravation, but the reality is the next big move is going to be to the upside and this is all just noise. It’s been said by other people there is going to be so much volatility in this sector that it’s going to feel like your hair is on fire, but the fact is you’ve got to be long on any weakness.”


When asked about the Swiss pegging their currency to the euro Embry responded, “In a world in which manipulation wasn’t predominant in markets, that news should have sent gold screaming up $100, not down $100. With their currency getting too strong and impacting their economy, they (the Swiss) have hooked themselves up to the euro, which looks like a depth charge. This is a very bullish development for gold.”


When asked about the Chinese gold accumulation Embry remarked, “The Chinese have a very good understanding of what’s been going on in the gold market, as the Russians have for a long time. The Chinese know full well that the Western central banks have been suppressing the price....

“They are also well aware that all of these US dollars they have piled up in reserves, trillions of dollars worth, are at the risk of severe debasement. To me that just ensures there is a bid for gold at a very solid level from the Chinese alone. These guys understand what the true nature of the (gold) market is.”


When asked about silver specifically Embry replied, “The noted bullion bank, and we all know who it is, has an enormous short position (in silver), which can never be covered with real metal. They are moving heaven and earth to try to prevent the inevitable price rise. They will be overcome and the price will go berserk as a result of that. So once it clears $50, which I suspect it will do in the not too distant future, it’s onward and upward.”


When asked about the mining shares Embry stated, “It’s like a coiled spring, they are getting ready to explode and I couldn’t be more bullish on gold stocks and silver stocks.”


I have known John Embry for close to a decade and the man puts his money where his mouth is. He was buying gold shares today and John buys big.

[denpal]

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews and click on King World News Blog

They interview all the top guys like Sprott and Embry all the time, fantastic stuff!

[Huang Chung]

Thanks for that Denpal. Sprott are no fools. Heavily invested in RMS I believe?

[denpal]

Thanks for that Denpal. Sprott are no fools. Heavily invested in RMS I believe?

HC don't know about IGR but they hold around 10% of SLR which I hold...........and why wouldn't they!!!!

[Skol]

CCU, IVR, TRF, no thanks.

Looks to me like silver's reverting to the mean, albeit slower than I originally thought.

Time to rally the troops JB, another stern lecture about fractional banking, sovereign debt, and especially JP Morgan and the 'manipulation' might be required.

[JBmurc]

[QUOTE=JBmurc;329618]$26.70oz USD kitco is the set price for a new 2011 bet I have with SKOL the prize a round about $100 bottle of wine of the losers choosing(skol a reds fine by me)

Will the Silver price crash back to the teens by the end of 2011

IMHO no Silver will be much higher my prediction over $40oz USD

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

well as long as it closes above 26.70 this year I'll be happy Skol longer term the paper promises will default it's only a matter of time...greece is 98% likely to default soon then it will be italy.....an so on.....

[Skol]

[QUOTE=JBmurc;329618]$26.70oz USD kitco is the set price for a new 2011 bet I have with SKOL the prize a round about $100 bottle of wine of the losers choosing(skol a reds fine by me)

Will the Silver price crash back to the teens by the end of 2011

IMHO no Silver will be much higher my prediction over $40oz USD

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

well as long as it closes above 26.70 this year I'll be happy Skol longer term the paper promises will default it's only a matter of time...greece is 98% likely to default soon then it will be italy.....an so on.....

From $41 to $35 in 2 days, shouldn't take too long to get to $26.70, the end of next week you think?

[JBmurc]

[QUOTE=JBmurc;357528]

From $41 to $35 in 2 days, shouldn't take too long to get to $26.70, the end of next week you think?

Well you know what I think ..what do you think $15 .....50c oz --Fact-- Silver up 66% from 1 yr out ...down 10% last 30days...

But of course you don't really have a clue why Silver is up or why it will go down outside it's all driven by speculation rah rah bubble...an it will crash bah bah

[Skol]

1770 oz @ $50 = US$88500

1770 oz @ $35 = US$$61950

Difference = US$26550.

Ouch!
---------------------------------------------

Make that $34.

[JBmurc]

1770 oz @ $50 = US$88500

1770 oz @ $35 = US$$61950

Difference = US$26550.

Ouch!

LOL average paid $25oz NZD 1770 = $44,450
Biggest current free trading bullion market in NZ-TRADEME-
- NZD price off trademe 10oz bar bout to sell next 10mins $59oz NZD also 1oz coin selling at
$65oz 1hr 50mins to go........lets just say $60oz x 1770 =106,000 NZD savy ....LOL

I don't live or have brought or plan to sell my bullion in US Fiat dollars

[Skol]

LOL average paid $25oz NZD 1770 = $44,450

US$25 an oz. At the current average rate of -.17c/hour we should get there in 47 hours trading.

Only 1600 oz or thereabouts to get rid of.

Looks to me like it's crashing, -.75c in less than an hour.

[JBmurc]

US$25 an oz. At the current average rate of -.17c/hour we should get there in 47 hours trading.

Only 1600 oz or thereabouts to get rid of.

Looks to me like it's crashing, -.75c in less than an hour.


geee give it a couple days a Silver will be worth $1oz hey SKOL .......yeehaa USA USA

--If you divided all the known above ground Silver bullion out today to the human race every human would only get 1/14 of an oz of silver each

-answers Q's many have why to invest into Silver.....IOU control the Silver price not real buyers sellers of real Silver bullion

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tj2s6vzErqY&feature=relmfu

-http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E5VNAEmmBQM

[corran]

Looks to me like it's crashing, -.75c in less than an hour.

Are you going to profit from this crash by shorting silver Skol? Or do you just watch it tank and talk about it on here?

[Skol]

Are you going to profit from this crash by shorting silver Skol? Or do you just watch it tank and talk about it on here?

You haven't been reading this thread carefully enough, the bet is about the price of silver at years end. I won't be shorting silver, in fact I don't put my money anywhere near where the herd puts theirs, it's deadly. The thread was started by J B Murc, not me.

If PMs do crash then I might have a look around to see what's on offer, because I know for absolutely sure there are lots of unsuspecting punters that are overexposed. I've done it before, a couple of times it comes to mind are after the '87 crash when I got in, and during a very severe contraction in the property market in the early '90's. After the '87 crash I bet my house that it would recover, ran the revolving mortgage up to the max, that was a good one, but I was a bit more gung-ho then than I am now.

Some are so sure that the USD is going to crash to oblivion and that PMs are 'going to the moon', that they've bet almost every last cent on it including their houses. Who knows, they might be right, but I doubt it, the chances of that happening are extremely remote. A lot of of speculators have been sucked in by all this baloney.

Rather than digging at me you might want to take a look at all the snake-oil salesmen who've been pushing these very risky bets on the gullible 'mums and dads', who've I said time and again are the ones who are gonna get cleaned out. Again.

If it continues like this, lots of 'mums and dads' who got in at $50 will have the weekend to cogitate over the errors of their ways, because at the moment there doesn't seem to be any end in sight, we might be watching history being made.

[corran]

You haven't been reading this thread carefully enough, the bet is about the price of silver at years end. I won't be shorting silver, in fact I don't put my money anywhere near where the herd puts theirs, it's deadly.
...

Rather than digging at me you might want to take a look at all the snake-oil salesmen who've been pushing these very risky bets on the gullible 'mums and dads', who've I said time and again are the ones who are gonna get cleaned out. Again.

If it continues like this, lots of 'mums and dads' who got in at $50 will have the weekend to cogitate over the errors of their ways, because at the moment there doesn't seem to be any end in sight, we might be watching history being made.


I wasn't referring to your bet. You are so adamant that silver will go lower it seems logical to me that you would use this opportunity to 'put your money where you mouth is' so to speak and short silver. I was curious if you have done that. If you are right about silver, then full credit to you, but surely it would be a wasted opportunity if you don't profit from it financially?

If, as you say, the herd are buying gold and silver then surely going against the herd by shorting is a sensible thing to do?

[Skol]

I wasn't referring to your bet. You are so adamant that silver will go lower it seems logical to me that you would use this opportunity to 'put your money where you mouth is' so to speak and short silver. I was curious if you have done that. If you are right about silver, then full credit to you, but surely it would be a wasted opportunity if you don't profit from it financially?

If, as you say, the herd are buying gold and silver then surely going against the herd by shorting is a sensible thing to do?

I'm more into capital preservation at my age, but I try to hone my psyche by attempting to read between the lines, bubbles and herd instinct are fascinating, got lots of books on it. It's too late anyway, the bubble has burst, down 25% overnite.

Now we know it was a bubble, it's crashed, history was made last nite, there'll be books written about it.

I'm sure we'll hear soothing words about PM's, the dangers of the fractional banking system and how we're running out of silver, any minute now.

Last nite JB's silver was worth 1700 x $40 = US$68,000

This morning worth 1700 x $30 = US$51,000

Peter Schiff, Marc faber, the Aden sisters, Clive Maund, Jim Rogers et.al will all be squirming this morning and "unavailable for comment".

Where will it end? My guess is $15, maybe a little lower because a serious rout like this one tends to overshoot the mark and finish lower than when it started.

Anyone else? What about you Lego Man?

[corran]

I'm more into capital preservation at my age, but I try to hone my psyche by attempting to read between the lines, bubbles and herd instinct are fascinating, got lots of books on it. It's too late anyway, the bubble has burst, down 25% overnite.


fair enough re capital preservation. But surely you would have read and seen that when bubbles burst the price normally undershoots the long term average by quite a way before it bottoms. So I find it surprising, given that silver is still about $30 USD, that you think it's too late. Surely if silver was in a bubble there is a helluva lot more downside (and trading opportunities) to come?

How low do you think silver will go before it bottoms out?