Breakouts and other fun stuff

[drillfix]

Hey strat, did you check out any more on SUR?

Holding a small parcel the from the other day after chatting with you, seemed to convince myself it was a good idea and that the Low has passed us by and its on the way back up to the 5c+ area after a test of the 4c zone of course.

Who knows though, lots of stocks on the roster today. and plenty for the picking it seems.

[Jess9]

Breakout firing now on LMG I think !!

[drillfix]

Indicators for GLF starting to line up in favour of a potential up swing of the next day or two, and seems it may have started already.

Might take a stab at a few more options near EOD.

[STRAT]

Hey strat, did you check out any more on SUR?

.Hi Drilly.
Actually I havent. Ive been too busy with the day job.
That said, I do have a few buy orders in on a few others I have already looked over.

[drillfix]

Excellent post there AA.

Setting up a few alerts as you say can make you more profitable as you say, as it keeps you prepared with a finger on the pulse so to speak.

For me on the other hand though, I tended to over use Alerts as I had alerts set up in my IB platform for my trading account, yet then the problem sometimes is that depending on which day or kind of day, your workstation starts to sound and act like some kind of PinBall machine with lights flashing, sound files triggering off, and lord what else which also, in turn can become very distracting to say the least, depending on what you are doing at that moment, so yield caution too whilst using them I reckon. (I guess, each to their own, to much is overkill, too little you snooze and you lose as well).

[STRAT]

Hi AA.
Thanks for taking the time to clarify that.
There have been quite a few alerts on this thread that dont actually qualify.

How you been? Nice to see you back in here.

[drillfix]

Old news now, but over the past few days, CXY has completely risen from the near dead to liven up.

Would be very careful trading this.

I cant understand why it has risen so much on News of a Chinese MOU.

With the amount of shares on issue here, somebody is pumping this big time and no doubt, Wait for the DUMP because somebody, somewhere, is going to get badly burned by this, SOON. imo

Dont forget to wear your parachute those who are inclined.

[COLIN]

Try it for size, although I am aware that it would probably breach your "rule", AA, that one needs to catch a breakout before it actually occurs. I managed to catch AMM at 33 a few days ago (now 37) but, looking at the buy/sell structure, I would say that it can look forward to a good run. I held it previously for a while, in its earlier run-up. Check out the indicators.

(I'm afraid I haven't been "pulling my weight" by way of contributions to the forum, for a few weeks, but I have been checking in from time to time to avail myself of all you others' words of wisdom. The 22 Feb quake is my excuse - I am unscathed personally, but our house will inevitably have to be demolished. Its all a bit of a nuisance, to say the least, but I am deeply conscious that many, many others are exceedingly worse off.)

Cheers, to all.

Col.

[STRAT]

Try it for size, although I am aware that it would probably breach your "rule", AA, that one needs to catch a breakout before it actually occurs. I managed to catch AMM at 33 a few days ago (now 37) but, looking at the buy/sell structure, I would say that it can look forward to a good run. I held it previously for a while, in its earlier run-up. Check out the indicators.

(I'm afraid I haven't been "pulling my weight" by way of contributions to the forum, for a few weeks, but I have been checking in from time to time to avail myself of all you others' words of wisdom. The 22 Feb quake is my excuse - I am unscathed personally, but our house will inevitably have to be demolished. Its all a bit of a nuisance, to say the least, but I am deeply conscious that many, many others are exceedingly worse off.)

Cheers, to all.

Col.Thats not an excuse Colin. Its a bloody good reason and Im sorry to hear that you are loosing your home.

Good call on AMM though the breakout was the last signal to show where it was going eh? RSI, OBV, Short term moving averages and even the Trendline break came before todays breakout.

[Phaedrus]

Breakouts occur on the break of previously defined resistance. Usually the biggest breakouts occur on the break of the first resistance following a trend line break of a long established downtrend, this is because the higher high confirms the trend change. The high after the trend line break becomes resistance. So :-
(1) Find a long established down trend,
(2) Wait for the trend line break,
(3) Then wait for the stock to hit resistance and fall back down,
(4) The peak is your future breakout price. (known before it occurs)
(5) Note your future break out point, and Buy when this peak is exceeded.

AA, I reckon that this system has a crucial flaw. The very best breakouts don't "fall back down". They take off out of the gate and don't look back. To wait in the hope of buying after a retracement is to miss out totally on that first strong run.

Here are a couple of examples of what I am talking about. Both of these stocks were in long-established downtrends and both triggered multiple Buy signals confirmed by nice clear trendline breaks as marked by the blue arrows. All systems had given the green light and these stocks were an unequivocal Buy at that point. Even Trailing Stops (commonly the very last indicator to fire) were triggered shortly after. Both stocks then hurtled North in magnificent breakouts that have so far brought rises of 36% (AMM) and 44% (CSV) in just 2 weeks. Your proposed system hasn't even got to point (3) and is still waiting for the stock to hit resistance before the entry trigger point can even be set!


The idea with breakout trading is to catch the break as early as possible, to do this you need to plan first.
I agree - but this system has such rigid entry requirements that in the case of the very best breakouts, the plan as proposed actually stops you getting in at all. You are still on hold, waiting for a pullback that, with the strongest breakouts, never comes.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/CSV42.gif







http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/AMM42.gif

[Phaedrus]

Im of the belief all stocks pullback at some point...and im sure those stocks in your chart will pull back. I'm sure they will too - and when they do, their peak becomes your entry trigger point.

[Phaedrus]

Neither of us are trying to pick the bottom, AA. As you rightly stated "The idea with breakout trading is to catch the break as early as possible..... getting into a breakout late leaves profit on the table, often greater than 20% and increases your risk." Exactly!

Take a closer look at AMM. It IS in an uptrend, and has been since 22/3/11 when it made a higher high after a higher low.

CSV is a little different in that it's 2 week, 44% rise has been so swift that there has not been a single retracement so far. This means that, when viewed as a simple line chart of the Close, it is still technically in a downtrend.(!) When viewed as a daily candlestick or bar chart it can be seen that it has been in an uptrend since 18/3/11.

As important as trend is, other classes of indicator are just as valuable. A comprehensive system needs to have a :-

Trend Indicator e.g. Trendline, Moving average, QStick, etc.
Volatility indicator e.g. RVI, ATR, etc.
Momentum indicator e.g. RSI, Williams'%R, Stochastic, etc.
Volume indicator. e.g. OBV, Accumulation/Distribution, Price/Volume trend, etc.

To ignore these other classes of indicator and focus solely on a line chart of the Close is to miss the big picture - and miss some truly spectacular breakouts.

[STRAT]

Hi Phaedrus and AA.

Just read through your debate which sparked a question from the fringes if I may.
Volatility Indicators are something I dont really use. I look for wide ranging days etc within candle charts for signs of reversal etc. Can you fellas point me at your preferred Volatility Indicators if any and the advantages in their use above and beyond just using candles?

Thanks in advance

[Phaedrus]

My preferred volatility indicator is the Relative Volatility Index (RVI) as developed by Donald Dorsey. It is used to measure the direction of volatility.

From MetaStock :- When developing the RVI, Dorsey was searching for a confirming indicator to use with traditional trend-following indicators. He found that using a momentum-based indicator to confirm another "repackaged" momentum-based indicator is usually ineffective, stating "Technicians are tempted to use one set of indicators to confirm another. We may decide to use the MACD to confirm a signal in Stochastic... Logic tells us that this form of diversification will enhance results, but too often the confirming indicator is just the original trading indicator repackaged, each using a theory similar to the other to measure market behavior... Every trader should understand the indicators being applied to the markets to avoid duplicating information."

When testing the profitability of a basic moving average crossover system, Dorsey found that the results could be significantly enhanced by applying the following RVI rules for confirmation. Similar rules are likely to be effective for other momentum or trend following indicators.

· Only act on buy signals when RVI > 50.
· Only act on sell signals when RVI < 50.
· If a buy signal is ignored, enter long if RVI > 60.
· If a sell signal is ignored, enter short if RVI < 40.
· Close a long position if RVI falls below 40.
· Close a short position if RVI rises above 60.

Because the RVI measures a different set of market dynamics than other indicators, it is often superior as a confirming indicator. As Dorsey states:
"There is no reason to expect the RVI to perform any better or worse than the RSI as an indicator in its own right. The RVI's advantage is as a confirming indicator because it provides a level of diversification missing in the RSI."

From MYSMP.com :-
The relative volatility index (RVI) was developed by Donald Dorsey, who truly understood that an indicator is not the holy grail of trading. The RVI is identical to the relative strength index, except it measures the standard deviation of high and low prices over a defined range of periods. The relative volatility index was designed not as a standalone indicator, but as a confirmation for trading signals. The RVI can range from 0 to 100 and unlike many indicators that measure price movement, the RVI does an exceptional job of measuring market strength.

[STRAT]

Hi Fellas.
Thanks for that. I will do some additional reading as per the links you have provided.
AA at the moment price is all I do use but it is a bit of a "get a feel from a bit of a glance" sort of method. No method at all really.
Phaedrus, Unfortunately RVI doesnt appear to be available on IC free version. Am checking now to see if it is there and just labeled differently.

Thanks again fellas for those comprehensive replies.

[Jess9]

Bigcharts.com also no RVI but does have a number of other volatility measures. Anything worth using Phaedrus?

PS... When to sell during/after such a spike? Shame to give back more than necessary to MM. I guess a reverse of the original buy signals/indicators (noted above) may provide a better exit than a "finger in the air" best guess sell point during a sharp rise?? Any lessons?

[STRAT]

Bigcharts.com also no RVI but does have a number of other volatility measures. Anything worth using Phaedrus?

PS... When to sell during/after such a spike? Shame to give back more than necessary to MM. I guess a reverse of the original buy signals/indicators (noted above) may provide a better exit than a "finger in the air" best guess sell point during a sharp rise?? Any lessons?That is the dilemma eh Jess?
Its a fine line sometimes between selling too early and selling too late. Im by no means an intraday trader but I use daily candles and intra day charts and volume to make that call.

Funnymentals and buy in price play a part for me too.

Hi volume posting less than 2 lines on HC can also prove a useful indicator:scared:

[Phaedrus]

Bigcharts.com also has no RVI but does have a number of other volatility measures. Anything worth using?I see that Bigcharts offer a "Fast" and a "Slow" volatility indicator. I have no experience of either of these but it looks to me as though the "Fast" indicator is very active but the "Slow" looks promising. Bigcharts also offer Bollinger bands (another volatility indicator.)


When to sell during/after such a spike? I guess a reverse of the original buy signals/indicators (noted above) may provide a better exit than a "finger in the air" best guess sell point during a sharp rise?Probably, but they would only be suitable for those intent on trading the "medium-term" trend. It is the same old story - sort yourself out and decide how actively you want to trade, which trend interests you, and then build up a system/suite of indicators optimised for that task.

This exact topic was covered quite well in this thread :-
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?6931-A-Tale-of-Three-Traders.
Unfortunately all the charts have dropped off, but the discussion covers the main points.

[Jess9]

thoughtful answer, thanks for the pointers.

[drillfix]

I have one for Drillfix and AA :-) Look at ALK - usually this is a Drillfix type stock, it hits a new high, and then pullbacks to the EMA before moving higher, giving nice entry points. Now however its an AA type of stock as its showing no signs of pulling back, and since I've been waiting for another pullback, I've been unable to top up :-( So - AA and Drillfix, whatcha reckon? Buy now or wait?


KW, as you know everybody that trades has a risk tolerance and risk capitol they use to tackle such decisions depending on their hunger.

So there is no right or wrong answer to whatever you are asking, due to this, imo.

As it stands, I do not know about any of the fundamentals of ALK (not that I can remember this minute)
However, looking at it from my eyes Technically, I note the following:

OBV is extremely strong which is positive
RSI is overbought now past 80 needs to take a breather, imo
W%R is overbought but can remain this way till gkw.
DMI is now strongly spead apart.
MACD histogram still continues to increase which is positive.
MACD signal line(s) so far up there is no place for it left upward to go on my chart.

The Hourly MACD Histogram is diverging downwards which could be seen as negative yet it did this before and even went negative but remained positive on the signal line as it is doing now.

The Hours price candles remain above the 13ema which is positive and will not break through until $2.03c.

The 15 Min chart shows price above the 13ema yet tested it and breached it twice but rose back above due to traders / bulls taking control each time from any bear.

The 5 minute chart has shown points of entry on the daily basis for entry had you went to enter, but this now is making LOWER HIGHS on the 5 min chart and could then eventually be reflected in the 15 min, which then to the Hourly (60 mn) charts which then on to the Daily indicators falling over for a Breather.

ANSWER from me?

WAIT

Or use AA's theory on picking a good entry, because if you dont your Risk factor has us gone up through the roof.

Or, unless you have RT data whereby you can see pull and sway going on a minute or 5 minute chart then I dont believe it should be chased.

Because lets face it, there will have to be a pull back at some stage, as the stock has had 2 speeding tickets already and will probably get a 3rd in which case it may even become suspended due to whatever reason of suspicion.

Looks like BOTS are doing the manifestation as well, to take caution and look at your order book of previous time and sales.

Just because you cannot get what in at where you wanted to you must be have the discipline to let it go, which can be quite hard to do.

So there you have it or at least my version of it. I am sure AA has some excellent points if not already given you them.

Hope that helps anyway~!

[drillfix]

Oh and KW, it also seems that ELM has a similar type of behavior running at the same time and although not exact but similar charts to some degree.

Take a look for yourself to make a comparison and you will see what potentially may be up the road with the regard to mindset.

Unless there is insider knowledge info there to justify such upcoming Ann in a sector that is currently worshiped, I do not understand how this can be sustained.

Saying that, ELM also gets its Resource upgrade and although up, it is not closing on its high. Which could mean, the news already priced in and the Bots or believers just holding it up?

Wait for for a bad day on market (XAO) to turn colour into RED, what then goes up fast can also come down fast, and it is exactly then is when you would get your either 1. Bounce trade or 2. Dicounted entry to current market.

[shasta]

One for the breakouts, to watch

Off the LOW EV list, WCN up 3.5c to 18c today on modest volume (but more than normal), the chart i viewed on ASX looked good

I know the EQN bid has lifted many copper companies today, but i wouldnt have thought WCN would be included, given Nickel is there main metal

Could someone post a short term chart, or advise how i can copy/paste like i used to be able to do in here

Cheers

[shasta]

Hi Shasta,

This is a very sporadic Chart due to the lack of liquidity, in a attempt to smooth some of this sporadic movement out and to make the chart clearer, I have resorted to Weekly charts.

Note this free chart has not updated for today so I have marked 18c with a Green Mark.

Also note that On Balance Volume (OBV) would have broken that trend line today. ( thats Bullish, volume is said to precede price, (although I have seen many cases where this simply wasn't true)

Its still stuck in a Trading Range though. (thats being kind, over all, on the weekly we can see the over all trend is making lower highs and lower lows = Downtrend), (todays movement is still a lower high)



http://img14.imageshack.us/img14/1366/wcnz.jpg

Below is the sporadic Daily Chart

http://img215.imageshack.us/img215/2150/wcn2.jpg

AA

Oh well one to watch as it could be close to breaking upwards & we are trying to find them BEFORE they run ;)

[shasta]

True true Shasta, always good to keep your eyes on many pies.

All FA bargains are worth putting on the watch list and keeping a eye on, WCN will have another run like the one that went from 8c to over 20c,

TA timings just about Starting at the Start line and Finishing at the finish line..... and not doing it the other way around ;)

p.s Re: WCN - Watch for a Break above 20.5c , that would be bullish, (if it pulls back instead ....that still ok as long as it puts in a higher low, i.e a low higher than 13c)

for holders, a Break below 13c would be a sell as that would be a lower low after a lower high , i.e downtrend continuation confirmed.

myself, Id much rather look at a chart which is still yet to run, then one which is already running, just like Id prefer to look at a Downtrend Chart than a uptrend, one things for sure in the market and thats that nothing stays the same and no trend lasts forever.

AA

Same concept with the LOW EV list, trying to find those obscure little gems before the media & Hotcopper gets all over it.

Most of there charts are inconclusive due to the number of days of no trades etc, & i find i have to look over a longer period to find old support/resistance levels

[drillfix]

So - AA and Drillfix, whatcha reckon? Buy now or wait?

Hi again there KW,

Here is a chart for you to see some touching of potential oblique resistance lines.

ALK Daily and Weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/xp2g80hkyozmtz8wr1k1.png


For sure there are EMA's nicely developed for this chart(s) both on daily and weekly though it would be anybodies guess to what can happen here. The bulls are in control of this, but for how long is a gamble on its own.

Lets not forget the recent placement at $1.x something and now price is over 100% up from that, so really, nobody can advise you on this one except those that are actually in the know with this stock or the people who have a lot of the stock they can contol its direction or BOT buying to assist in its direction, yet what goes up must also take a breather and come down at some stage.

I would be inclined for the XAO to also take a breather which you may get your chance next week or even before next week. In which case refer to the ASX thread.

Good luck with that one mate.

[trackers]

God I'm getting sick of this.... Offloaded WCN at 15c when **** started hitting the fan and up to a couple days ago had been the highest bidder at 13c. Now I know why I never got my fill lol (should have just paid 14c!!).

This is happening far too much to me at the moment :(

[shasta]

God I'm getting sick of this.... Offloaded WCN at 15c when **** started hitting the fan and up to a couple days ago had been the highest bidder at 13c. Now I know why I never got my fill lol (should have just paid 14c!!).

This is happening far too much to me at the moment :(

Breakout time up 5c to 23c, hey i tried to flag it as soon as i could, :(

Trackers load the LOW EV list into a watchlist/chart scan, plenty on there still to run, i'll have a peek at the charts & see what others look likely

[drillfix]

God I'm getting sick of this.... Offloaded WCN at 15c when **** started hitting the fan and up to a couple days ago had been the highest bidder at 13c. Now I know why I never got my fill lol (should have just paid 14c!!).

This is happening far too much to me at the moment :(


Trackers mate, dont worry about it.

The more you worry about that, the more you will continue to do that, just live in the moment and take each trade as it comes. If you get affected by the "could be" syndrome then it will screw your head up as a trader.

I know exactly how you feel, as does many of us here, but lets rise above this and get focused on the next trade because that is what is going to count.

Speaking of which , I completely missed the boat on NTU, even after reading the news, I did nothing except then watch it go to 13c higher of where I had a potential buy order sitting. Crazy yes I know, but thats just the way it goes and I am over it, it comes and goes, all the time and I wont restrict myself by worrying too much about it, but rather continue on looking for the next move as that is a more healthy choice.

Anyway, easy does it mate, dont go to hard on yourself :)

[drillfix]

KW, that ann just released by AYG does not say how much they purchased that other IT West company for.

I am concerned with some of these smaller cap stocks the liquidity be it on their FPO or Options that I am getting involved with. I at times am finding it very difficult to get out when I want without taking a steel toed construction boot up the rear just to get out of the stock.

The good thing about liquidity or the lack of it at times is that it also works both ways, and also in your favour if you are lucky and time things right, but thats where I start to freeze a bit, and I find myself not being able to trade those type of stocks whilst I have another stock similar unresolved or until I have exited.

So, its a real touch and go type of topic really ain't it?

Looks like AYG has only had 4 trades today, and was this only because there was an Ann?

[STRAT]

Okay, if we are watching for breaks of downtrends and catching them before the run up - then put AYG on your watchlist. Been watching this one for a while, and finally there appears to a bit of movement in the right direction. Will it last, who knows, but management are good and prepared to put their own money into the company.Hi KW.
Have it on watch now thanks.
Worthy of note is that there has been an increase in volume recently BUT all/most of the bigger days were down days so there has been some dumping going on.

[drillfix]

BUT all the bigger days were down days so there has been some dumping going on.

There was a release of 71 Million shares from Escrow I believe Start. Sounds to me like that would have very much to do with it, but not completely sure.

[shasta]

Had a brief look thru the LOW EV list charts, only GES (oversold, although very illiquid) & possibly BAR are worth keeping on watch.

Out of the 25 stocks, only a few have had a significant run so far, AXE, GMM, & now WCN.

But given the nature of these exploration companies, & the fact they are "off the radar", any newsflow could set them off.

Will post an update each day, on the LOW EV stocks, that are oversold, or looking like breaking out of a downtrend, its good for me to study the charts & learn about them better, especially using candlesticks

[drillfix]

Ahh, thanks for that update there KW.

Was not sure which angle this time you were referring too.

I guess the question here now would be is: Have we recently just seen the bottom of this stock?

Hard to tell, sometimes bottoms need to form and consolidate a for at least a few days to a week so a base becomes formed, but again I dont know that co that well but it would be good to see the stock punch past the 60 day EMA (1c) which it is just sitting below that at present.

[Huang Chung]

Both Mozambi Coal (MOZ) and Magma Metals (MMW) had nice breakouts today.

If anyone wants to interpret the moves, I'm all eyes.

[Huang Chung]

Both Mozambi Coal (MOZ) and Magma Metals (MMW) had nice breakouts today.

If anyone wants to interpret the moves, I'm all eyes.

A Sgt Shultz response by MOZ to an ASX speeding ticket.

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01168508

[COLIN]

MYG mightn't tick all the boxes just yet, but it would seem to qualify, on my assessment (see separate thread).

[drillfix]

MYG mightn't tick all the boxes just yet, but it would seem to qualify, on my assessment (see separate thread).

Hi Colin, good to see ya mate, hope your keeping well.

Yeah, looks like MYG finally broke to the upside (again) but for a while there it looked questionable.


Well, if it can do 16c there is no reason why it wont be able to do 17.5c :P

Oooppssss, cancel that order with Fries please, as a there is a heavy seller there that just wont ease up by the looks of it.

[Huang Chung]

A Sgt Shultz response by MOZ to an ASX speeding ticket.

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01168508

....and up another 13.8% today.

[drillfix]

Hi HC, say are you holding those? Mate I dont know how you do it as you seem to pick stocks and then suddenly they just move.

Do you buy them up yourself or is the rest of the market also getting involved? LOL :P

[Huang Chung]

Hi HC, say are you holding those? Mate I dont know how you do it as you seem to pick stocks and then suddenly they just move.

Do you buy them up yourself or is the rest of the market also getting involved? LOL :P

Yes Drilly, I'm holding.

Bought in at 37c and they moved all right....down to the mid-twenties.

So, just recouping my loss at the mo.

MOZ, being a Riversdale wannbe, could shoot for the moon, or shoot me in the foot. Time will tell I guess....

[shasta]

Hi HC, say are you holding those? Mate I dont know how you do it as you seem to pick stocks and then suddenly they just move.

Do you buy them up yourself or is the rest of the market also getting involved? LOL :P

Drilly, can you post a chart for WCN, todays 2c rise to close 21c should have a few watching it?

Cheers

[drillfix]

Drilly, can you post a chart for WCN, todays 2c rise to close 21c should have a few watching it?

Cheers


No worries there Shasta,

Though, just give me a couple of minutes and I will edit this post then add a chart after I get a couple of commitments out of the way.




Bought in at 37c and they moved all right....down to the mid-twenties.

So, just recouping my loss at the mo.


HC, wow so I guess thats the market for ya, and it serves us to always remember that the market works both ways.

Would have thought though that if a stock aggressively turns against you that it would be time to sell? (or buy more depending on the uniqueness)

Well, hope it comes back in your favour for many gains there mate~!

[Huang Chung]

Would have thought though that if a stock aggressively turns against you that it would be time to sell? (or buy more depending on the uniqueness)



It's a non-core holding for me, in other words, a punt. No point in selling, as there was no fundamental reason for the drop. Bought on spec in the hope it's another RIV, so should hold it until I know, one way or the other.

PS...because its an outright gamble, I wasn't going to keep building my stake by averaging down.

[drillfix]

Drilly, can you post a chart for WCN, todays 2c rise to close 21c should have a few watching it?

Yep, sorry for the delay Shasta, but here it is.

WCN Daily and Weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/7v45qvy4rsskrhmrw8tu.png

Dont know if care for the observations but here they are anyway.

Daily Chart
MACD daily histogram rising and signal lines crossed over and rising into positive zone, Positive.
W%R has turned around in the mid-zone and point upward again, Positive.
RSI has broken through its down sloping decline and is now above 70, Positive.
OBV has broken through its down sloping decline also and is heading upward, Positve.
EMAs are lining up now and whether this is just the beginning, time will eventually tell as it does always.
13ema has crossed the 30ema and 90ema which also both of them sit above the 200ema, Postive.
Price now also sits above these EMA's as pointed out above, Positive.

Yesterday as you know, the price rallied up to 27c from 18c and then dropped back to close at 19c, Negative.
Today there was only a 1c spread, which is not much and closed at 21c and the candle left a doji candle yet this will not matter or have no significance in the middle of range. Doji candles are mainly significant at Tops or Bottoms.

Weekly.
The weekly chart maintains a negative MACD histogram yet the signal lines in the positive zone appear to show a potential cross coming, Neutral till (crossed)
EMA's are spread a part nicely and the price is riding above all EMA's accordingly, Positive.
Weekly price shows a higher than the previous lower high but is above the Bollinger Band middle line, Positive.
RSI is strong above 65, and broken through the previous declining resistance line, Positive.
OBV is also gaining strength and broken through the previous declining resistance line, Positive.

Conclusion.

Pretty positive although one can easily say we can see better charts around.

One would think that some type of re-rating has happened and will either be maintained, and gradually rise which perhaps on any FA news that comes?
OR
One would think that this was just traded and not enough conviction has been witnessed in the candles in the chart and thus should there be a lack of news for fundamental justification then surely a fall would be in order as the indicators eventually turn through their Cycles?

Yet again like all stocks, time will tell and like any stock, it is up to the Market Gods or the Mercy of the overall XAO which right now seems to be powering along even be it with lower than previous bull market volumes.

So there you have it Shasta, I dont know what this company does (or I just cant remember) but whatever it does, I hope it goes well for holders or potential investors a like.

Hope this helps anyway~!

[shasta]

Yep, sorry for the delay Shasta, but here it is.

WCN Daily and Weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/7v45qvy4rsskrhmrw8tu.png

Dont know if care for the observations but here they are anyway.

Daily Chart
MACD daily histogram rising and signal lines crossed over and rising into positive zone, Positive.
W%R has turned around in the mid-zone and point upward again, Positive.
RSI has broken through its down sloping decline and is now above 70, Positive.
OBV has broken through its down sloping decline also and is heading upward, Positve.
EMAs are lining up now and whether this is just the beginning, time will eventually tell as it does always.
13ema has crossed the 30ema and 90ema which also both of them sit above the 200ema, Postive.
Price now also sits above these EMA's as pointed out above, Positive.

Yesterday as you know, the price rallied up to 27c from 18c and then dropped back to close at 19c, Negative.
Today there was only a 1c spread, which is not much and closed at 21c and the candle left a doji candle yet this will not matter or have no significance in the middle of range. Doji candles are mainly significant at Tops or Bottoms.

Weekly.
The weekly chart maintains a negative MACD histogram yet the signal lines in the positive zone appear to show a potential cross coming, Neutral till (crossed)
EMA's are spread a part nicely and the price is riding above all EMA's accordingly, Positive.
Weekly price shows a higher than the previous lower high but is above the Bollinger Band middle line, Positive.
RSI is strong above 65, and broken through the previous declining resistance line, Positive.
OBV is also gaining strength and broken through the previous declining resistance line, Positive.

Conclusion.

Pretty positive although one can easily say we can see better charts around.

One would think that some type of re-rating has happened and will either be maintained, and gradually rise which perhaps on any FA news that comes?
OR
One would think that this was just traded and not enough conviction has been witnessed in the candles in the chart and thus should there be a lack of news for fundamental justification then surely a fall would be in order as the indicators eventually turn through their Cycles?

Yet again like all stocks, time will tell and like any stock, it is up to the Market Gods or the Mercy of the overall XAO which right now seems to be powering along even be it with lower than previous bull market volumes.

So there you have it Shasta, I dont know what this company does (or I just cant remember) but whatever it does, I hope it goes well for holders or potential investors a like.

Hope this helps anyway~!

Thanks, appreciate the chart & commentary :)

WCN is a nickel exploration company, also with copper/gold & iron ore/manganese projects, EV is $9.6m (@ 21c), with $3.5m cash

Its one of the better stocks off the LOW EV list, & kinda reminds me of CZN another Nickel exploration play

[drillfix]

Thanks, appreciate the chart & commentary :)

WCN is a nickel exploration company, also with copper/gold & iron ore/manganese projects, EV is $9.6m (@ 21c), with $3.5m cash

Its one of the better stocks off the LOW EV list, & kinda reminds me of CZN another Nickel exploration play


No worries Shasta, anything for you there brother as you sure do put so much efforts into your posts with your Low EV lists and the likes, so what I do is very small in comparison, but just wish I had a few more bob to spread across some of these stocks, which eventually will grow.

[STRAT]

Heres one in keeping with the original thread theme

[shasta]

Have just viewed the 3 month charts for the LOW EV stocks using candlesticks, RSI, 30 & 90ma

This is what popped up!

SPQ - Looks oversold, dropped on tiny volume, very illiquid though

CXO - Looks oversold

LCR - Looks oversold

GMM - Upward trend seems to be respecting the 30ma, very positive

ARV - To keep an eye on for a possible upwards breakout

Of course what i know about charts would fill a stamp, so feel free to pull apart my observations! (It would be helpful actually!)

[Jess9]

Heres one in keeping with the original thread theme

Hi Strat. Do you know / guess why the interest recently?

[ratkin]

Anyone looked at Tap oil , which way is it going to go?

[STRAT]

Hi Strat. Do you know / guess why the interest recently?Hi Jess. No clue sorry. Not even sure what they do. lol

[Jay]

If I may ask Strat, well I can alsways ask, you may not answer of course.
Moving right along , what parameters in the IC scanning are you using to come up with these gems?
I v'e tried various scenarios but not there yet.

[STRAT]

If I may ask Strat, well I can alsways ask, you may not answer of course.
Moving right along , what parametersin the IC scanning are you using to come up with these gems?
I v'e tried various scenarios but not there yet.Hi Jay.
Unfortunately I dont have a formula for you. Its all a bit random actually and I dont use a scanner.:ohmy:
Share site chatter is one method if you could even call it that but instead of looking for stocks everyone is excited about I look for the opposite. Disgruntled share holders are a good sign.
Tips from others
I open the chart on every stock I look at or read about. Only takes a second or two.

Perhaps Phaedrus can help you here.
The key is unusual volume before SP movement and best seen in stocks that are asleep.

[Jay]

Well it works

Thanks Strat

[sharer]

3335

Living Cell Technologies LCT.asx has had successful small human trials treating Type I diabetes c pig pancreatic cell transplants. Recently a Jap coy came in to invest in their development. At least this could be a boost for Invercargill, where i understand they breed the special disease free pigs ...

[elZorro]

Vtrader mentioned this one yesterday: EER. It looks like a breakout. They are likely to announce a JORC Indicated resource instead of an inferred one, sometime in April.

In true Aussie style, they are hoping to mine 30Mtonne of coal a year, for 50 years. So what? Well, I just had a look at NZ's coal output. Wait for it..



New Zealand coal production in 2009 was 4.56 million tonnes, some 7% down on 2008.


All I know about coal, you could put on a postage stamp, but that's quite a bit of gear, a big business. Dwarfs Huntly's mines. With current Mcap of about 100mill, you'd think it might grow a bit.

Does anyone else think we should help out Vtrader and buy a few shares? But when?

East Energy Resources website. (http://www.eastenergy.com.au/) It's not up to date with data or news.

Latest news, today, trading halt to respond to ASX query. (http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110414/pdf/41y1mymswcptsh.pdf)

[STRAT]

Does anyone else think we should help out Vtrader and buy a few shares? But when?

March 18th.........................:lol:

[yabster]

nice answer...

[elZorro]

nice answer...

Why waste a post with that, Yabster. I only heard about the ticker yesterday, the credit must go to Vtrader, who has already doubled his investment, maybe tripled it. No-one had posted it here, so I did just that. My question is: will taking a punt on EER tomorrow mean that the magic spell will be broken?

[yabster]

geez elz don't be so sensitive man- Strats post amused me- no slight on you.

[Vtrader]

OK, I fell in at 25 and out recently for 100%, oops, could have been a 2 bagger.
Have been waiting for someone else to post something here for EER, after the "Hamilton ST meeting" last night elZorro speaks out, kudos to you EZ.
See the volume spike today and the price peak in the middle of the day, a classic top reversal pattern - shooting star. Gap up open above yesterdays close, more volume than recent days.
http://i949.photobucket.com/albums/ad333/VtraderNZ/EER_14APR.jpg

I anticipate this rally to retrace an amount after a top reversal pattern like this with volume correlation. 50 cents would not suprise me.
As an additional reinforcement, since 18 March I count 1,2,3,4,5, so we should have an ABC retrace to complete an EWT1-2 of cycle degree.
As usual tomorrows trades will prove me wise or otherwise.
DYOR
Will be back in when it turns up...I have thoughts at what level, but TA will identify, then we will all know.
V.

[STRAT]

Hi Vtrader and EZ.

No offence intended. Just being a smart arse.

Looking at your chart Vtrader Id have to agree. Hard call though. Looking at he candles throughout the rally its looked a little top heavy all the way. Plenty of closes below the intraday highs and plenty of gaps too. Also not quite a classic shooting star with that small lower shadow.
In at 25 and out at 50 looks about perfect. You will know in a few days eh? :D

[drillfix]

Vtrader mentioned this one yesterday: EER. It looks like a breakout. They are likely to announce a JORC Indicated resource instead of an inferred one, sometime in April.


elZorro,

I would take extreme caution with EER viewing this Technically.

Check this out right,

EER daily and weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/nfdren2do43mua1r.png

Check out the weekly on the right hand side.

Now this does not mean that this co should not be re-rated, but what I am trying to say is how much is actually already priced into these previous moves???

I myself dont know, there are some very strong signals there on the stock, but the Williams seems ready to turn downward even though the others are still powering along but Williams %R will and should react quicker than the other indicators.

Price itself is king of course and the sentiment will be king with better than expect results, however my point is to be cautious in any approach to buying stocks that have run strong previously whilst waiting on results whilst the ASX or XAO is starting to take a breather. Otherwise you find yourself in a trade that may be eventually getting sucked out by the tide so to speak, if you follow what I am saying?

Anyhoo, just some caution thats all, and all the best with this along with Vtrader.

[drillfix]

OK, I fell in at 25 and out recently for 100%, oops, could have been a 2 bagger.
Have been waiting for someone else to post something here for EER, after the "Hamilton ST meeting" last night elZorro speaks out, kudos to you EZ.
See the volume spike today and the price peak in the middle of the day, a classic top reversal pattern - shooting star. Gap up open above yesterdays close, more volume than recent days.
http://i949.photobucket.com/albums/ad333/VtraderNZ/EER_14APR.jpg

I anticipate this rally to retrace an amount after a top reversal pattern like this with volume correlation. 50 cents would not suprise me.
As an additional reinforcement, since 18 March I count 1,2,3,4,5, so we should have an ABC retrace to complete an EWT1-2 of cycle degree.
As usual tomorrows trades will prove me wise or otherwise.
DYOR
Will be back in when it turns up...I have thoughts at what level, but TA will identify, then we will all know.
V.


Just posted a chart there V, and agree with the potential retrace.

Check out the Fibs on the posted chart taken FIBs from the weekly which also reflect on the daily which also were posted to eZorro.

EER daily and weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/nfdren2do43mua1r.png

I get:

23.60% = 51c
38.20% = 42.5c
50.00% = 36c

Anything less than 50% then you, me or anybody you know should not be in the trade.

Why? Because if a stock retraces back past its 38.2% level then any potential rally or strength becomes less probability. Less than 50% signals it is weak and a will have a high probability of failure to near term any rally up test of newer highs. (IMO).

Anyway, just an addition to thought, thats all.

ps
By the way V, forgot to mention, a good entry and exit there mate, nice one~!

[elZorro]

Thanks for your posts, Strat and Drillfix. It's a bit as I thought from the TA perspective, due for a correction, and Vtrader said as much. Will it correct and then carry on to new highs? I wonder.

It's interesing that much higher volume in this share was kicking around in April 2010 when it did another threefold run before dropping back. This year we're looking at a JORC rating, and then I'd assume the EP will change to a Mining Permit, and they appear to be fairly close to getting some coal out. It's a lot of coal, billions of dollars worth a year. Australia gets 80% of its power by burning coal, and exports heaps too.

Remember OGC was at times valued by a sick market at 50mill, and now it's 1 billion. The difference is that OGC are producers, not explorers.

I do think EER will continue to be an interesting share in future, and Vtrader has done well. I have lots to learn...

[drillfix]

Hi again eZ,

I think if EER never pulled back to half way back on its daily candle then there may have been possible room for an upward move still but, the Hourly is also showing MACD histogram diverting downwards to eventually become negative suggesting a down leg about to start, along with other indicators showing overbought and need to take a breather, IMO.

But, who knows, more news or some insto wanting a piece could suddenly change everything and after a breather the momentum continues, who knows as charts do not show the intention of all Insto or Soph investors.

[Jess9]

LMG broke resistance today on volume and is away...after a few weeks (or so) of false starts...mutter mutter re previous LMG go's : )

[Jess9]

resistance was at 3.5-3.8c... vwap of 4 today on 7M+ looks good for more new highs soon : )

[elZorro]

Hi again eZ,

I think if EER never pulled back to half way back on its daily candle then there may have been possible room for an upward move still but, the Hourly is also showing MACD histogram diverting downwards to eventually become negative suggesting a down leg about to start, along with other indicators showing overbought and need to take a breather, IMO.

But, who knows, more news or some insto wanting a piece could suddenly change everything and after a breather the momentum continues, who knows as charts do not show the intention of all Insto or Soph investors.

Hi Drillfix, did buy some EER at 60c, just a few to remind me to keep looking. So far so good..

[Vtrader]

EZ,
will you continue to hold if you are -20% in EER?
I will be back in about 50cents when price and volume confirms what the rest of the market thinks...
V.

[Vtrader]

19 October 2009, 3M shares traded on a doji day, price=25.5 cps
6 November 2009, 10M shares traded starting at 20cps
30 June 2010, 0.7M shares traded at 8 cps
Some indicators since of improvement, but todays price/volume action has made dominant a mark.
20 APR 2011, 9.5M shares traded starting at 10 cps.
http://i949.photobucket.com/albums/ad333/VtraderNZ/CWE_20APRa.jpg
Some other indicators
http://i949.photobucket.com/albums/ad333/VtraderNZ/CWE_20APR.jpg

http://i949.photobucket.com/albums/ad333/VtraderNZ/CWE_20APR_1.jpg

http://i949.photobucket.com/albums/ad333/VtraderNZ/CWE_20APR_2.jpg

Did you get any today?
What other confirmation signals are necessary for a purchase?
Image clarity at this scale is a bit hazy, good enough to illustrate a breakout from an 18 month downtrend.
V.

[elZorro]

EZ,
will you continue to hold if you are -20% in EER?
I will be back in about 50cents when price and volume confirms what the rest of the market thinks...
V.

I was going to wait until it dropped back a bit and average down, Vtrader..that's what I normally do, as you well know..:D

[sharer]

Currently back at 12.5, maybe still interesting ...

disc:i have none.
3356http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/misc/pencil.png

[STRAT]

I totally agree Strat.

It all depends on whether CPS are going to stick around or sell out on the pump.

CPS (and it clients) now control 25% of the register, so it is possible they see some potential with ORO, and will stick around. But ORO have acheived absolutely nothing over the last 2 years, except succesfully diluting its registry from 500m shares to 2b shares, just like its sister company DMN.Hi Steve.
Do CPS clients still show on the register of this one?

[STRAT]

TPL. Old IT company now a mining prospector, so I guess its also qualifies as a backdoor listing. Decent depth and volume.Hey KW.
This one might be worth another look. Some one got excited about it just before Easter.

[COLIN]

Strat: Looks like you pulled your posting earlier today re SLT. Naughty, but wise. No use flogging a dead horse, methinks.

(Confession time: I still hold a tiny parcel of these - hardly worth the effort of dumping them.)

[drillfix]

Hmm, SLT now there is one that hasn't been talked about for a while so good question there Colin.

Strat, are you still holding these mate?

If I remember correctly I think I dumped way to quick on these only to see them double up (doh!) but a small profit is good too of course.

Hope many of you took some profits on these ones anyway.

[STRAT]

Strat: Looks like you pulled your posting earlier today re SLT. Naughty, but wise. No use flogging a dead horse, methinks.

(Confession time: I still hold a tiny parcel of these - hardly worth the effort of dumping them.)Hi Colin and Drilly. You are quick Colin. That post was only up for a few seconds. I did delete the post but is was only containing a sarcastic remark about the the first trade of the day giving a 16% rise with a value of $8. Not even sure how they can do that. Ironicly another small trade at the end of the day brought it back down again.

SLT
I hold a lump at 0.5c. So 60% or 40% up depending on which part of a given day one takes a look. These shells are an all or nothing play and should be a % of ones portfolio that reflects that I reckon.
I will give em the time needed to do what I thought they would do when buying them. I have confidence in Steves approach.

I also hold a lump of NDL, CRJ and ROB with similar margins above buy price. If one of em does 1/4 as well as AVB or GOR it will more than cover the lot.

[COLIN]

Have you looked at ORD, Strat? They seem to tick the boxes for the key indicators that I usually look at.

I didn't acquire any ORD at the time of posting the above in October last, but I have kept a bit of an eye on them since, finally buying a worthwhile block last week when the indicators seemed to be flashing a bright green. Well, blow me down, when I go to check out the surprising gain to my overall portfolio's performance tonight I find that this little fellow has jumped 81%, on a further down day for the ASX (glad I didn't include these in my recent purge of my Aussie stocks!). Today's announcement seems to have created a lot of excitement - read all about it.

Its been quite a while since I've had a short-term winner on this scale, but I must apologise for not bringing this opportunity to everyone's attention last week. (Perhaps I was just doubting my own judgment!).

[drillfix]

Good for you there Colin, sometimes its the ones we dont expect to perform that can surprise us the most, especially with markets like we currently are experiencing now.

Well done.

I myself am becoming too frightened touch anything as I had a few trades whereby I just escaped with a break even or got out with only less brokerage.

If you ask me, Too much crucifiction atm, perhaps I should have chose to mow the lawn the other day.

Lets see what happens today.

[COLIN]

Good for you there Colin, sometimes its the ones we dont expect to perform that can surprise us the most, especially with markets like we currently are experiencing now.

Well done.

I myself am becoming too frightened touch anything as I had a few trades whereby I just escaped with a break even or got out with only less brokerage.

If you ask me, Too much crucifiction atm, perhaps I should have chose to mow the lawn the other day.

Lets see what happens today.

Yes, not easy to make gains in this market, Driller.
I have noticed that the volume of posts on the forum also appear to have declined, in line with the market setback. Seems we're all a bit like opossums caught in the headlights! Contributions are a lot more forthcoming when gains are being made - but you're there, through thick and thin! Keep trucking, mate, but don't miss out on essential sleep!

[STRAT]

Yes, not easy to make gains in this market, Driller.
I have noticed that the volume of posts on the forum also appear to have declined, in line with the market setback. Seems we're all a bit like opossums caught in the headlights! Contributions are a lot more forthcoming when gains are being made - but you're there, through thick and thin! Keep trucking, mate, but don't miss out on essential sleep!Hi Colin.
Well done with ORD.
Work has been full on for me so less time for playing share trader though its true, it does get quieter around here when things arent going so well.

[COLIN]

Hi Colin.
Well done with ORD.
Work has been full on for me so less time for playing share trader though its true, it does get quieter around here when things arent going so well.

I cashed them up quickly today, Strat, when I could see that buying support was disappearing - as fast as any Pakistani military personnel prepared to admit that they knew who the VIP was, inside that compound! Missed the peak, but happy to have got 10c.

[STRAT]

Strat: Looks like you pulled your posting earlier today re SLT. Naughty, but wise. No use flogging a dead horse, methinks.

(Confession time: I still hold a tiny parcel of these - hardly worth the effort of dumping them.)Off and running today Colin

RSI rising over the last few weeks against a flat SP
Trend line break with OBV today
Increased Volume Today.

Summits up

[Financially dependant]

Urainium stocks looking like they are starting to turn, I always keep am eye on BMN. If I had a few extra dollars this might be worth a punt tomorrow.

[STRAT]

Heres a few I have hung onto through the down turn that are showing signs of positive activity.

GOR appears to have broken out of the recent down trend. Volume is still light though. Medium term uptrend line nicely respected over the last few days.

NWE looks to have broken out of the recent trading range.

ADD is up on volume and looking poised for a breakout on increased volume.

Mind you it would take as brave soul to be buying up right now.

[drillfix]

Anybody else jumping into CKK (Coretrack Limited)?

Movement at the station and some resutls eventually coming to find their way to market regarding contracts.

Would have thought that some of you fundamentalists out there would have been on to this one.

[elZorro]

ORD (River resources) is launching itself again, if this keeps going it'll be back to what I paid for it, of course I wasn't allowed to average down..

[STRAT]

ORD (River resources) is launching itself again, if this keeps going it'll be back to what I paid for it, of course I wasn't allowed to average down..lol EZ.
You are allowed to do what ever you want to do. Who said you werent allowed to average down?

[elZorro]

lol EZ.
You are allowed to do what ever you want to do. Who said you werent allowed to average down?

Hi Strat, Mr P keeps sending me training session posts including that golden rule. So anytime I admit to averaging down, I'm in potential axiom trouble. Invariably when I do buy more shares after they've dropped a bit, the fall keeps going, and if I sit back and wait instead (I'm still no good at selling), the shares reach a good low before bouncing back. All good fun I guess, these are not big investments.

[STRAT]

Hi Strat, Mr P keeps sending me training session posts including that golden rule. So anytime I admit to averaging down, I'm in potential axiom trouble. Invariably when I do buy more shares after they've dropped a bit, the fall keeps going, and if I sit back and wait instead (I'm still no good at selling), the shares reach a good low before bouncing back. All good fun I guess, these are not big investments.Hi EZ.
I reckon P would have preferred you to have taken on the idea that you shouldnt ride em down. That way youd never be in a position to average down.

Took me a while to be able to sell with ease but unless you are right about 90% of the time you will need to be able to. When I started I let things like Tax liabilities and the Story behind the stock get in the way of clear thinking.

These things helped me a lot.

Think in percentages not dollar value. This helped me to not minimalize the importance of my portfolio when it was little and not to stress too much about it now its a bit bigger.

Getting less involved in the story. ( e.g. Give up arguing with Skol lol )

Making sure I stayed aware of the product performance ( e.g. charting Copper price when I own a copper mining stock )

Keep an eye on overall Market sentiment ( chart Indices ) and dont fight it.

Stop loss point starting tight and loosening up over time ( adjusted to each stocks volatility and overall performance in value vs time held )

remembering I can always buy them back.

[Phaedrus]

EZ, I reckon P would have preferred you to have taken on the idea that you shouldnt ride em down. That way you'd never be in a position to average down.Dead right. Buying more means that you have not accepted that your initial purchase was a mistake. Buying more shows a misplaced confidence in your own abilities. Buying more is evidence of ego involvement in a trade. We ALL make mistakes and the sooner we accept that fact and recognise them as such, the better.

The worst thing that could happen to eZ right now would be for him to successfully average down after a bad entry into a stock. This would lead him to think that it can be a good idea and he would have set himself up for major serious losses in the future. He would be carrying the seeds of his own destruction. A bit like someone who has found he can save time by crossing a railway line when the red lights are flashing.

There is always room for an individual approach within the generally accepted "rules of engagement". For example, I use the stock to position the stoploss in that I set it just below recent support and never, ever, move it.

eZ, you say you are "still no good at selling". Work on it. Develop your own exit strategies - and keep to them. Not everybody can see this, but selling is actually more important than buying.

[elZorro]

Thanks Strat, that looks to be a concise and safe way of approaching shares, and I am moving in that direction. Just not so sure I could stop baiting Skol (he does the same on the other side of the argument). :eek2:

Thanks for the post Phaedrus, that makes sense too.

[gazprom1]

Dead right. Buying more means that you have not accepted that your initial purchase was a mistake. Buying more shows a misplaced confidence in your own abilities. Buying more is evidence of ego involvement in a trade. We ALL make mistakes and the sooner we accept that fact and recognise them as such, the better.

The worst thing that could happen to eZ right now would be for him to successfully average down after a bad entry into a stock. This would lead him to think that it can be a good idea and he would have set himself up for major serious losses in the future. He would be carrying the seeds of his own destruction. A bit like someone who has found he can save time by crossing a railway line when the red lights are flashing.

There is always room for an individual approach within the generally accepted "rules of engagement". For example, I use the stock to position the stoploss in that I set it just below recent support and never, ever, move it.

eZ, you say you are "still no good at selling". Work on it. Develop your own exit strategies - and keep to them. Not everybody can see this, but selling is actually more important than buying.

I guess Phaedrus I have big ego because I average down whenever I have the opportunity unless the fundamentals of a company have changed. Yes, some shares may not perform as predicted but doesn't mean that they are a bad investment. As stated before, I am not smart enough to pick the tops or bottoms. It is about what you are buying and the understanding and research of the market. My biggest problem is getting concerned about the noise around the market. Need to have conviction in what you are doing if it is working. The past few weeks has been an excellent buying opportunity IMHO for stocks that you believe in....in 1, 2 or 5 years time I am sure I will look back and think that I should have bought more.

Gazprom

[JBmurc]

Dead right. Buying more means that you have not accepted that your initial purchase was a mistake. Buying more shows a misplaced confidence in your own abilities. Buying more is evidence of ego involvement in a trade. We ALL make mistakes and the sooner we accept that fact and recognise them as such, the better.

The worst thing that could happen to eZ right now would be for him to successfully average down after a bad entry into a stock. This would lead him to think that it can be a good idea and he would have set himself up for major serious losses in the future. He would be carrying the seeds of his own destruction. A bit like someone who has found he can save time by crossing a railway line when the red lights are flashing.

There is always room for an individual approach within the generally accepted "rules of engagement". For example, I use the stock to position the stoploss in that I set it just below recent support and never, ever, move it.

eZ, you say you are "still no good at selling". Work on it. Develop your own exit strategies - and keep to them. Not everybody can see this, but selling is actually more important than buying.

yes this works great if you're a Tax paying trader - trading in NZ is Taxable...
If your like most I'd say on this forum that are investors holding for the longer term then averaging down on Fundamental or technical analyst is fine IMHO rather that selling as soon as a 5-10% pullback on stoploss then buying back weeks later

[Phaedrus]

I average down whenever I have the opportunity....Averaging down into a losing trade is the only thing that will assuredly take you out of the investment business. Gaz, there is a stock train out there with your name on it. You have got it coming.

You guys appear to have no plan on how to deal with your mistakes - but worse than that you seem to discount the possibility of your making any! Moreover, you have devised a system that is guaranteed to maximise your losses when you do get it wrong.

[gazprom1]

Averaging down into a losing trade is the only thing that will assuredly take you out of the investment business. Gaz, there is a stock train out there with your name on it. You have got it coming.

You guys appear to have no plan on how to deal with your mistakes - but worse than that you seem to discount the possibility of your making any! Moreover, you have devised a system that is guaranteed to maximise your losses when you do get it wrong.

For the sake of accuracy Phaedrus, the full comment of mine was "......I average down whenever I have the opportunity unless the fundamentals of a company have changed. Yes, some shares may not perform as predicted but doesn't mean that they are a bad investment......"

Interesting comments....definitive statements like the ones above are surely "dangerous" given that you do not know my background nor my performance. I am happy to have some "paper" trades online over a long period of time with you to see performance and I will probably average down on some trades given the nature of markets. Re that stock train, I am adding carriages to it with more stock all the time....toot toot, watch out as it is moving quickly=)=)

I do knock your investment style as it is your free choice and your decision to be in and out of the markets based on what your charts tell you and I can respect that. I am happy to double/ triple down on my investments and remain in the the stocks I believe in. I am not an index investor as that is intellectually dull. I am picking that your charts still have you out and yet some great money has been made during this period through properly researched decisions.

I no longer need or want to invest other peoples money (so not technically in the business) so have the ability target huge returns albeit with high risk. Investing is all about managing ones own risk profile and we all have different profiles based on a myriad of factors. Your risk profile is probably a lot different to mine. I have time and I am learning to be patient.

Gaz

[drillfix]

You make some very valid points there Gaz, well done.

This conversation can go off the rails about discussing Risk, or what is Risk, or even who has what to risk and how much or how little, and on and on.

Nothing complex from me except each to their own and what works for some may not always work for others and vice-versa.

There you have it, lunch is now served :)

[STRAT]

Thanks Strat, that looks to be a concise and safe way of approaching shares, and I am moving in that direction. Just not so sure I could stop baiting Skol (he does the same on the other side of the argument). :eek2:

Thanks for the post Phaedrus, that makes sense too.Yeah mate. Keep getting stuck into Skol. Hes no mug so if you win an agument or two youll be doin alright.

[sharer]

...
... selling is actually more important than buying.

Sounds simple, but it took me many years & many substantial $$ losses to realise just how important this observation is.
As far as i remember now, i think i used to spend all my time trying to digest annual reports etc and "picking" what looked like good investments to buy. With so much personal time and reputation invested in a list of such picks, of course i never wanted to sell out of them, especially if they went down instead of up, & if they did go up i held on grimly until the profits disappeared in later weeks. I remember justifying this kind of stupidity on the grounds we were still getting dividends, so hang on.
On the good side, that realization that i needed a rational approach to selling down or quitting a stock did directly lead me to find out about Technical Analysis, & eventually, especially after reading everything i could find ever posted by "Phaedrus", i got the courage to start acting on TA indicators. To the great benefit of the beneficiaries of some charitable trusts i work for.
So once again thanks to a short list of people on here who consistently post rational analyses of what is going on, and share their valuable insights with us.
Sharer.

[STRAT]

Hi Sharer.
Its a fairly short list eh? lol.

Anyone who has any doubt about how badly averaging down may turn out should open the Charts for these two and read the threads through noting where on the chart you are as you read.

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?1070-Feltex-%28FTX%29-All-over-for-shareholders&highlight=feltex

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?4259-PEM-Its-all-over-amazing-destruction.&highlight=pem

[sharer]

Hi Sharer.
Its a fairly short list eh? lol.

Anyone who has any doubt should open the Charts for these two and read the threads through noting where on the chart you are as you read.

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?1070-Feltex-%28FTX%29-All-over-for-shareholders&highlight=feltex

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?4259-PEM-Its-all-over-amazing-destruction.&highlight=pem

Kia ora Strat.

" I have a little list .." and you're definitely on it !

The only thing worries me, when is your avatar going to quit smoking? :ohmy:

[STRAT]

Kia ora Strat.

" I have a little list .." and you're definitely on it !

The only thing worries me, when is your avatar going to quit smoking? :ohmy:I shouldnt be on your list. Im not on my list ;).
The Avarar will quit when I do I suppose :blush:

[Phaedrus]

Read it.
Weep.
Learn from their mistakes.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/PEMavdn.gif

[drillfix]

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/PEMavdn.gif

Touche'
And yet another very valid point there too Mr. P

Although, that chart/stock/situation to me seems like a case of not once bitten twice shy.

Yet rather once Bittten to death a dozen times then Burnt to the steak yet another dozen times..LOL

A fantastic example though nonetheless~!

[gazprom1]

Read it.
Weep.
Learn from their mistakes.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/PEMavdn.gif

Great picking of an example and I am sure there are hundreds/ thousands more. Let's try the otherside of the coin....HZN, bought Sept '08 at 30 cents, drops to 20 cents in Oct buy more, SPP for 10 cents back up the truck...ave price 15 cents start selling at 30 cents and finish at 36 cents. Perhaps evnn more interesting...buy GAzprom $1....devaluation of ruble and soverign debt default...Gazprom $0.08 cents....3 years later $13.00. We could roll out a few hundred more of those. One can point to all sorts of examples to illustrate a point -we could also skew some charts and figures to illustrate a point. TA investors use a herd mentaility and it sends off signals (buy/sell/hold) constantly. IMHO the secret to FA investing is to buy companies that have valuable assets that one day may be impaired but will always be worth something not worthless speculative companies that can be bankrupted in the case of a meltdown. Not rocket science.

Remember the golden rule....if at first you don't suceed, DOUBLE DOWN=) BTW, doubled and tripled down on AZZ recently...what a beautiful thing - it is all there on the AZZ thread...to coin a phrase...read it, weep.

[elZorro]

Great picking of an example and I am sure there are hundreds/ thousands more. Let's try the otherside of the coin....HZN, bought Sept '08 at 30 cents, drops to 20 cents in Oct buy more, SPP for 10 cents back up the truck...ave price 15 cents start selling at 30 cents and finish at 36 cents. Perhaps evnn more interesting...buy GAzprom $1....devaluation of ruble and soverign debt default...Gazprom $0.08 cents....3 years later $13.00. We could roll out a few hundred more of those. One can point to all sorts of examples to illustrate a point -we could also skew some charts and figures to illustrate a point. TA investors use a herd mentaility and it sends off signals (buy/sell/hold) constantly. IMHO the secret to FA investing is to buy companies that have valuable assets that one day may be impaired but will always be worth something not worthless speculative companies that can be bankrupted in the case of a meltdown. Not rocket science.

Remember the golden rule....if at first you don't suceed, DOUBLE DOWN=) BTW, doubled and tripled down on AZZ recently...what a beautiful thing - it is all there on the AZZ thread...to coin a phrase...read it, weep.

"Remember the golden rule....if at first you don't suceed, DOUBLE DOWN=)"

Gazprom - just having a beer after work, and that motto also hit the spot, I'll try that next time on one of my crazy unresearched buys!

[drillfix]

Touche' again, LOL yet another great example Gaz.

A very entertaining thread this is turning out to be so to speak :P

[Phaedrus]

Ah, the old Monte Carlo "double down" technique!

Here is a nice example of just that, provided by one of ST's staunchest exponents of that dubious practice.

He calls it "building a pyramid".

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/FTXavdn.gif

[JBmurc]

And thats the thing If every Investor in a Company Only invested and sold via T/A without a care for it's fundamentals when the share did take a breather and say pulled-back 10% after a good run your'd have all of the shareholders selling even if fundamental nothing was wrong ,the company would basically collapse

--- "why did you sell"?-"because the SP pulled back" -...................and onwards an onwards selling in selling pressure what T/A investor would buy in downtrend?

One must take on both T/A and F/A with some of course favouring one more than the other..

I guess thats why we don't see you on any ofthe stock picking comps Phaedrus your aways selling and buying with no care for the longer term holds

[elZorro]

ORD still going for it, now it's reached my buy-in price, what do I do? Let the profits run (for once).
Huge volume too.

http://www.intellasia.net/news/articles/resources/111325968.shtml

[drillfix]

EZ, let profits run?

Mate I cant tell you what to do as I am not you.

But I will say this, ORD is just off its 52 Week High at 12.5c

How far past 12.5c are you expecting this stock to run? If not much then I would take whatever money I could get.

There seems to be pretty good support at 10c, however if it were me, I would put a stop in (say 9.7c) just under that 10c, and if the wall comes crashing down then you at least caught a good part of the run.

These markets are now turning into rapids on the river mate, its a time to some degree to either really know the stock you are trading or become totally defensive.

Of course, this is all IMO and I am me :)

[elZorro]

EZ, let profits run?

Mate I cant tell you what to do as I am not you.

But I will say this, ORD is just off its 52 Week High at 12.5c

How far past 12.5c are you expecting this stock to run? If not much then I would take whatever money I could get.

There seems to be pretty good support at 10c, however if it were me, I would put a stop in (say 9.7c) just under that 10c, and if the wall comes crashing down then you at least caught a good part of the run.

These markets are now turning into rapids on the river mate, its a time to some degree to either really know the stock you are trading or become totally defensive.

Of course, this is all IMO and I am me :)

Thanks for the advice Drillfix, I was starting to research the share like usual, of course the new factory is still a long way off and so a quick sale might be for the best.

[STRAT]

ORD still going for it, now it's reached my buy-in price, what do I do? Let the profits run (for once).
Huge volume too.

http://www.intellasia.net/news/articles/resources/111325968.shtml
Hi EZ.
Have you held this for yonks or did you buy in in the last spike?

I assume it owes you 10.5 to 11.0c which doesnt leave you much room to wriggle. Its a tough market out there too. Id probably ride it a bit longer with a stop at 9.2c and to be on watch all day every day.

A close today at 11c or greater would constitute a breakout on high volume :eek2: so we are on the right thread.

[elZorro]

Just a little while, I bought at 10.5c, have already sold some just now, v small profit. Lesson 1 accomplished, learn to sell..

[drillfix]

Just a little while, I bought at 10.5c, have already sold some just now, v small profit. Lesson 1 accomplished, learn to sell..

Bingo, you got it there mate.

Some folks find it very hard, I too found it hard at times, yet I now like to circulate with my trading account and hold steady with my long account.

Some trades or moves as you know by look at the chart, will give you a continual uptrend with spread ema's line up correctly and slow growing path in correct direction and if you are lucky enough to get one and early then obviously do not sell unless there is reason to suggest fall is on its way or a clear indication has flagged that the party is over.

Yet as always, each to their own.

[shasta]

Hi Sharer.
Its a fairly short list eh? lol.

Anyone who has any doubt about how badly averaging down may turn out should open the Charts for these two and read the threads through noting where on the chart you are as you read.

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?1070-Feltex-%28FTX%29-All-over-for-shareholders&highlight=feltex

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?4259-PEM-Its-all-over-amazing-destruction.&highlight=pem

Seems a lifetime ago i bailed out of PEM @ $3.56! :)

[soulman]

These screened stocks are for the experienced trader who is able to act quickly and positively with entries and exits.

keep an eye on these stocks between now and the next 15 trading days.

DYL
AKI
GDY
OMH (bit different in that I think this one is a good long term portfolio stock, accumulate around low 90s )
PPX
VMG

AA

Wow AA. You could not have picked a more dangerous line up than all those. How could one sleep at night taking position in any of those stocks?

I noticed you post "experienced trader" at the top so fair enough. A couple of those coy could called in an administrator at any moment. Good luck.

[elZorro]

These screened stocks are for the experienced trader who is able to act quickly and positively with entries and exits.

keep an eye on these stocks between now and the next 15 trading days.

DYL
AKI
GDY
OMH (bit different in that I think this one is a good long term portfolio stock, accumulate around low 90s )
PPX
VMG

AA

Hi AA, I'm one of those people who should not try these shares..I'm not on the short list, not on my own list, and probably won't be for a year or three :)

But I did notice GDY (Geodynamics), I held that for awhile when I first started trading. I really liked the story of getting energy out of hot rocks. Usually granite, this works over a very long period of time because the granite contains uranium, more than in most rocks, and it's decaying over time. It's similar to geothermal energy only more direct. The idea is to push clean water down through a heat exchanger system, into fractured rock, and use the heated water in a standard steam turbine at ground level. GDY has an Mcap of 60mill, just got 90mill from the Aussie government to keep going on the work. Pity it has been trending down for ages. At least I jumped out of that one. But surely it couldn't drop too much lower, and sooner or later they'll start making power. 2013-2014 they think, 50MW trial plant.

Is there some event happening soon?

[shasta]

These screened stocks are for the experienced trader who is able to act quickly and positively with entries and exits.

keep an eye on these stocks between now and the next 15 trading days.

DYL
AKI
GDY
OMH (bit different in that I think this one is a good long term portfolio stock, accumulate around low 90s )
PPX
VMG

AA

OMH is a $500m+ MCap, & has JV projects with resource minnows MOX & AXE, if you're looking for a decent spec (MOX & AXE, both on the LOW EV list)

[soulman]

I should add a note here for you soulman, those stocks are by no means a buy list, rather they are just stocks in a particular high potential technical environment, these stocks hold high potential for high percentage gains, which if occur , could be capitalized on if a trader is already watching them closely, giving the trader the chance to act in a more timely manner then the market mass, the exact same technical environment started for BEC on the 17th of May, it was a heads up to start watching the stock, a signal well prior to its large capital gains exceeding 100% in these last 2 trading days. (Technically BEC fell out of that watch list environment today,...BEC became a sure thing rather than just potential due to a price environment, this is the reason BEC wasn't on my list, the low risk timely entry is now over)

p.s sleep is over rated lol ;)

AA

Fair enough AA. But I would be better off sleeping yesterday seeing the DOW down 120 than seeing it again with 200 in front of them.

I reckon sleeping is under rated.


A few stocks did alright today including KBL, NST, MTE and ORD.

[gazprom1]

Requirements are a fundamental or technical trigger before you make a purchase of any kind. Emotions need not factor.
You treat the new purchase as a new trade, not part of the previous one.]

Hi AA,

What surprises me on ST is the absolute (excuse the pun) belief that one trading strategy is superior to another. I believe that each to their own and whatever works for one person may not necessarily work for somebody else. Others have years of experience that allow them to make investment decisions which may be contrary to what others believe. Others have been burnt by their past experiences. Emotions are difficult to keep out of investing/ trading decisions. Most of us possibly believe no emotion is involved in our investment decisions but subconsciously it probably has some influence.

As you are probably aware, I believe that IF you buy a stock and that stock happens to decrease in value it is acceptable to invest further funds provided that your original criteria for investing in that stock are still valid.IMHO it is difficult to "pick" the bottom but I tend to invest over a period of time. I can understand that many stocks that people pick go pear-shaped and should be sold and never re-invested in. It is part of investing that we are going to have failures.

On a separate issue but in keeping with this thread, I wonder if there has been any detailed analysis of the impact of share buy backs by a company on that companies SP relative to its sector peers and/ or the overall market???? My logic tells me there should be some relative outperformance but I may well be mistaken as investors may believe a company is directionless and has no idea what to do with its cash if it is undertaking a share buy back, etc. Thoughts?

Gazprom

[gazprom1]

Hi Gazprom

There are countless ways to approach the share market, and this is good, I think people interested in the market should approach it with a methods which suits them, no method is superior, its just that different methods work best in different markets and circumstances, no method will work all the time in every circumstance in any market.

I often post here about different methods I use in the market which I feel have worked for me, I post certain methods simply because no one else seems to be using them or taking that particular approach, Id like to think it helps others look from a different angle, even If it doesn't personally suit them, I like to post ideas which go against the grain and are a little different, I do of course use the more common methods, and ideals as well but leave it to others to discuss those.

I apologize if I sounded like my way was the only way to trade, by reading your post I wasn't sure if you were implying that or not, I often post with a lot of confidence in my posts mainly because I feel it reinforces my own beliefs, a kinda of affirmation which helps me with decision making in the heat of a trade.

Regarding Share buy backs I have no analysis as such for you, however over the years I have studied many a chart under such buybacks, many of the companies continued to trend down and many continued to trend up.

MY feeling is that the buybacks didn't influence sentiment to a large degree and that the general trend already in place continued regardless.

This could be due to the buybacks being very gentle in accumulation and over significant periods of time.

I believe companies must follow a certain protocol when taking place in a buyback, these rules may reduce the companies impact regarding supply and demand dynamics.

AA

Hi AA,

Thanks for your post. No, my comments regarding the way to trade were in no way aimed at you. I totally agree with your view that there are numerous ways to invest and I think that it is excellent that you share your views on ST. Each individual adapts there trading strategy according to a myriad of different factors.

Re the share buy backs, companies are restricted re the price they pay to buy back shares depending on the current SP. It does soak up some of the liquidity and possibly helps smooth volatility.

Gazprom

[gazprom1]

That was a very good way of explaining it Gazprom and so very very true.

RE: share Buy Backs

Quote: It does soak up some of the liquidity and possibly helps smooth volatility

The helps smooth volatility bit is very significant to my

Quote: many of the companies continued to trend down and many continued to trend up.


The interesting thing here is that high volatility goes hand in hand with greater likely hood (higher probability) of change.

and low volatility goes hand in hand with continuation.

So there we go a conclusion we formed together.

Buy Backs are influences which support continuation of Trend.

The reason is buy backs smooth volatility and volatility is often required for change.

AA

Great post AA and very interesting. AZZ are involved in another buy back (2nd one of 10%) and the SP is appreciating ever so slightly. Will watch to see how it pans out in the medium term.

Was wondering whether or not you had any views on the DGR trade that went through at 4.10pm the day before yesterday. Looked like was a "fake" trade so that the seller could repurchase their shares back at a lower price - tax lass? It is on the DGR thread. Couple of the ST guys managed to buy in near the bottom for an exellent bounce trade of 20-25% on the day.

Gaz

[COLIN]

BKY has lost almost 20% of it's market Cap in 10 days, it takes a large level of volatility to do that.

A 14 Day ADX also exceeded 50,

In other words there has been extreme volatility over the last 14 days.

such levels can indicate irrational selling, ADX readings this high are often indicative of fear based decisions being made by holders in mass, these levels soon become unsustainable and volatility falls as sellers quickly become exhausted, a large percentage of shares are shifted to new hands in a relatively short period of time and with this comes a change in sentiment at that price level thus support, the stock then rises (at least in the short term) simply on supply and demand rather than fundamentals, often these rallys which follow are strong and powerful yet short lived, much like a V shaped rally.

Daily Candle wise Volatility has now fallen significantly, 2 longish tails testing support in the last 2 days and yesterday the candle put in a higher low (and slight higher high) than the previous day, possibly indicating sellers drying up, volume increased slightly yesterday compare to the 3 days prior.

Potential breakout pending and possibly a very good "short term" trade opportunity coming up.

Currently 39.5c

http://img689.imageshack.us/img689/3346/bkyaxpricedaily28jan11t.png

AA

Well, there we have it AA, your "short-term trade" opportunity eventuated today. Well done.

With prediction skills like that, could you please let us know when the next big earthquake shock will hit Ch-ch.

Move over, Ken Ring!

Cheers,
Colin.

[Entrep]

I think DGR may have been a low volume "test" today before they take it up again.

[shasta]

I think DGR may have been a low volume "test" today before they take it up again.

I cant understand the drop off in DGR, they have earmarked the value of the Armour Energy IPO, & yes Shale Gas isnt a proven technology, but it will list at 75c as per the ASX announcements, DGR owns 75m shares, the math aint too difficult!

[whipit]

I think DGR may have been a low volume "test" today before they take it up again.

Sorry if this is a silly question, but could you explain what you mean by a "low volume test"?
Cheers

[whipit]

Thanks AA, it's much appreciated!

I'll watch with interest over the coming week

Cheers

[Entrep]

I meant low volume test as in VSA

Check out this PDF - http://vsa.pipbuilders.com/mtmv3.pdf

I'm still very much a novice, but better than throwing darts at a board!

[Entrep]

Very nice PDF there Entrep,

Thank you for sharing it, some good Sunday reading.

AA

Thanks, I am pretty sure my success rate has improved after adopting some of the theories, or maybe it has just been luck! Whatever works - it does give me at least some more confidence when getting into a trade.

[elZorro]

Thanks, Entrep, read some of it, noticed near page 70 that market players like to shake out retail traders in some shares, and the writer suggested to watch out for it. I think that's happening with OGC, but not 100% sure. However I was recently talking to someone connected with a small listed company, and the impression was that at the moment they have good news that they won't release to the market, because they'd be fighting smaller traders who are still selling down. My contact stated that when they can see that those shares are exhausted, then they'll pump up the share. So it really does happen, despite the trading rules.

From the e-book:




The business of accumulating a stock is like any other campaign. To buy stock in very large amounts without putting the price up against your own buying requires planning, good judgement, effort, concentration, trading skill and money. As a basic guide, you will notice that the stock is very reluctant to react when the Index itself is falling. This is because the professionals are buying most of the sell orders coming into the market and certainly not selling. On any sort of rally, there is usually very low volume associated with a stock under accumulation. This is because they are not chasing the higher prices(indicated by the low volume up-moves). On these low volume rallies you will often see a sudden increase in volume on an up-day – the stock is being hit hard and fast by just enough selling to knock it back down again, which prevents any sort of rally to start. This results in more stock being bought than sold.


These are the classic signs of accumulation. You should anticipate a test, or a shake-out (on bad news) near, or at the end of an accumulation zone, just before a genuine bull move in the stock is about to start. It is also possible to accumulate some stock, but usually not all the stock, in the so-called “dawn raids”, or by other methods, such as share offers. This is done by traders in a hurry, perhaps with more money than patience (nominees are often used to camouflage the real buyers). Few can afford this expensive way to purchase stock. Slow accumulation is the cheap way, done very quietly, almost undercover; giving away as little as possible. You hear very little about stocks under accumulation, all the hype and news is kept for the distribution (selling) phase. You would do exactly the same thing! If you are the potential buyer of a house, you are looking for negative information to feed to the seller in the hope of a lower price. If you are the seller, you are looking for positive information to maintain the price. Accumulation is a business.

Any dealer who has the task of investing large amounts of capital in the stock market will have problems unless he is a true professional and a member of the exchange (i.e. no commissions). Market-makers will immediately notice the size of his orders, and will rapidly mark the price of the stock up against his buying – the process will become self-defeating. As his orders are exercised, the supply (selling) on offer is rapidly absorbed. Once this has happened he will need to buy at ever-increasing prices, causing a sharp upwards spike to appear. The price shoots up, but as soon as he stops buying, it will plummet back down to where he first started, because he is the only one seriously buying, and had not removed all the floating supply at the lower price level. This supply, which he had not removed, was being sold into his buying once a higher price had been reached (resistance). Therefore, he would achieve very little for his clients, or his own account. This is why professionals have to 'shake traders out of their holdings’.

On every small rally, some traders, who still hold the stock you feel bullish about, will start to sell. If they are weak holders, they are glad to see at least some of their money back. This annoying selling creates resistance to the professional, who has accumulated a line of stock, and wants to be bullish. The cost of having to buy stock at higher levels to keep prices rising is very bad business. This is the reason a stock or an Index is unlikely to go up until most of these weak holders have been 'shaken-out’. Bull markets usually rise slowly, but rise persistently, unlike bear markets that fall rapidly. This slower rise seen in bull markets is caused in part by locked-in traders selling on any small rally (resistance to the up-move).

[mark100]

DVN has appears to have broken a downtrend on the news LEI have increased their holding. The market was worried LEI would sell out. Stock is very cheap fundamentally roughly trading at half NTA and a PE well under 10 due to being in a very unloved sector (property).

Disclaimer - I bought at 23.5 on news of LEI buying stock and will dump when the momentum stalls so this post is somewhat a ramp

[Jay]

Someone is selling the odd parcel of TEO from time to time
Managed to get a whole 200 yesterday (brokerage would be more than the sum received) so my order is slowly getting filled all @ 0.018c

[Entrep]

I had the exact same thing while getting my order filled at 0.02! $40 trades etc...

[drillfix]

Gaz, you out there mate?

Say, did you ever get around to picking up some PLV below 25c at all like you said you might?

I had picked up a small parcel noticing the volume and increased depth. Today there has been a breakout above 30c which now should become new support for the stock.

IMO an easy 36-40c here and surpassing that, then 45.5c which if trading can break past that then it should march back to 70 again, but obviously not as fast as it came down, but over quite a few sessions or up & down swings.

Hope they pull off their good deal for holders with whomever they are in talks with, but hopefully back on track slowly and steadily for both company and shareholders.

Here is a PLV chart mix of 5 min, 15 min, 60, min & Daily >> http://postimage.org/image/2fg0jw0is/

Helps keep you on the good side of a trade :)

Another stock I also took advantage of was a bounce trade for FXR which has been completely and utterly trashed to the bone, up 25% today so I cant complain. Will also ride this one until the signal tells me to punch out, or see if I can get free carried on this, who knows.

Hope you are keeping well mate :)

[soulman]

Nice going Drill. Good to see people enjoying good trading.

[STRAT]

Still a bit early for slow moving traders to be diving back in to the market boots n all but this is the time to be buying into and buying back those stocks hammered over the last 3 months I reckon. Specs are usually the last to recover but many have been and are showing signs of life again.


CRJ.

Down trend ended ahead of the general market on a clear increase in volume after finding clear support at 1.6c
Looking for a close above 2.4c and an intraday high above 2.5c

[STRAT]

GNI

Heres one I have had on watch that isnt doin so well.

So many false starts. A traders play thing I suspect.

A good example of how to come unstuck trying to catch a breakout early. Cant win em all eh?

[Entrep]

I have an order on CRJ, one to watch

[trackers]

i hold some CRJO's

[trackers]

3439

Bullish pennant developing in KDR? With bulk of drilling results expected early next week (by 4th if previous ann is correct), if any of the 15holes pending show any results anything in the vicinity of the first 4, this will be off to the races big time.

[STRAT]

3439

Bullish pennant developing in KDR? .Reckon not Trackers.

Thats a symmetrical Triangle you have marked up which I think in neutral.
Time frames a bit on the short side
I see a desending triangle ( bearish ) when using the closing price.

I personally wouldnt take too much stock of any of that. Candles indicate a lot of indecision after gapping up to me.

I think it will come down to how good that news is and how long it takes to arrive. Im guessing the clever buggers got in on the 20th somewhere at the lower end of the gap.

[airedale]

Break above the trend line for SXY. I have posted these before but they fizzled. Might be the real thing this time:cool:

[trackers]

Reckon not Trackers.

Thats a symmetrical Triangle you have marked up which I think in neutral.
Time frames a bit on the short side
I see a desending triangle ( bearish ) when using the closing price.

I personally wouldnt take too much stock of any of that. Candles indicate a lot of indecision after gapping up to me.

I think it will come down to how good that news is and how long it takes to arrive. Im guessing the clever buggers got in on the 20th somewhere at the lower end of the gap.

Cheers for that, looks like you're spot on...

[evilroyrule]

Break above the trend line for SXY. I have posted these before but they fizzled. Might be the real thing this time:cool:

how could you not own a parcel of shares with the sexy ticker! im in!

[percy]

how could you not own a parcel of shares with the sexy ticker! im in!

Have you run your evil eye over MAD. lol.

[STRAT]

Break above the trend line for SXY. I have posted these before but they fizzled. Might be the real thing this time:cool:21 million traded today already Airedale. Last time we had over 25 mill was Sept 09. Summits up?


A low ball offer from Bee-arch BPT perhaps ????

[Jay]

A dollar ot two would be good
That's low compared to $5 or $10 :D

I agree Strat, someting must be up on that volume

[drillfix]

Have you run your evil eye over MAD. lol.

Percy, I got a small parcel of MAD, but thats just me, only partially MAD :)

Looks good, although a stack of sellers there it seems, wonder why it seems to be road blocked for some reason.

[percy]

Percy, I got a small parcel of MAD, but thats just me, only partially MAD :)

Looks good, although a stack of sellers there it seems, wonder why it seems to be road blocked for some reason.

I thought of buying some myself,but thought if I rang my broker and gave him the code,he would take the mikey out of me.!!! looks interesting though,because the production figures are increasing each month.I do own HIT,NOD,ROB, but have sold my RUM.
I forgot my PEA.and POT.[nz] lol

[drillfix]

Dont worry what your broker says Pecy, just tell him your not insane but your feel like MAD.

IMO, a small position would not go astray.

Tell ya what, it has been 5 days of hitting 23c and it has not fallen over yet. If its not fallen over, it means it could very likely manage to just break out any day.

Will add more to any breakout event, although slightly concerned technically at the daily MACD histogram declining, so this could also fall down to fill the gap towards 20.5c where I also have a small order :)

Would like to see some momentum in direction sometime soon, yet to me, either way is good.

[STRAT]

I agree Strat, someting must be up on that volumeJust got back to the offfice and now total trades for SXY is 6,625,999.

What the...............................????

[drillfix]

Just got back to the offfice and now total trades for SXY is 6,625,999.

What the...............................????

Dont know what your looking at there Strat, but where I am reading things, the Volume is 26,038,483 million gone through and trades only show 130 actual trades done today at time of this post.

[Phaedrus]

Right now, Direct Broking show SXY volume as 6,889,810 while CommSec show it as 26,166,294.

[evilroyrule]

Right now, Direct Broking show SXY volume as 6,889,810 while CommSec show it as 26,166,294.

i guess the first indicator to go off was the rash of director buying 29 june and 1 july. i reckon there must be more to come and to me volume says so. why the diff in volume, db still: approx 20 mill short?mellow:

[airedale]

IC showing 36.14 million volume for today. Very curious.

[Jay]

IC showing 36.14 million volume for today. Very curious.

I agree with that from my EOD data - Infoscan

[Huang Chung]

After today's excitment, Metrocoal (MTE) and Metallica (MLM) must surely go on any breakout list.

[drillfix]

Ok folks, FXR good for a swing trade I reckon.

60min new high and not much between 6.3c and 10c so will be good to hitch a ride on the previous, way oversold FXR who got thrashed for EOY tax selling.

Any takers?

ps:
I posted this before with PLV.

Hey Gaz, did you not get my previous message re-PLV - FXR ?

[gazprom1]

Ok folks, FXR good for a swing trade I reckon.

60min new high and not much between 6.3c and 10c so will be good to hitch a ride on the previous, way oversold FXR who got thrashed for EOY tax selling.

Any takers?

ps:
I posted this before with PLV.

Hey Gaz, did you not get my previous message re-PLV - FXR ?

Sorry DF, I am home alone with the kids and trying to farm. Then have been in complex negotiations with a neighbor re selling a farm. All fell through so have been scambling to find a new manager. All just about sorted. I am also supposed to be out of NZ next week but not going to happen until the week after.

I did NOT buy PLV at 25 cents like we talked....would have been beautiful. Still relatively cheap wehre it is but will watch and wait.

I like MAD but seems to be directionless. I am sure when the June production figures come out it will provide some support. Is, or soon will be, self financing so that is great IMO.

FXR - let me take a look. I have probably missed the boat already.

Are you a league fan? Will you be watching the game tonight. Can't say I am a big fan but will have an eye on it and CNBC!!!!

Have a great day DF and sorry for not being in touch.

Gaz

[drillfix]

Are you a league fan? Will you be watching the game tonight. Can't say I am a big fan but will have an eye on it and CNBC!!!!

Have a great day DF and sorry for not being in touch.

Gaz

No worries there Gaz, and its all good. Sorry to hear about the farm deal falling through, but glad to hear you have things under control.

I dont really follow the State of Origin much and I cant say I am much of a league fan yet every now and then its ok when and if the situation is right.

Looking forward to MAD taking some direction and as you say, hopefully they will post some production updates.

Been in and out of a few stocks, sometimes I enter a few of them, and then the ones that dont move I exit and move into the movers or the ones which seem both fundamentally and technically sound for the time being.

Will catch up again once you have some more time, so in the meantime, have a good one there Gaz :)

[STRAT]

SLT worth keeping an eye on

[drillfix]

FXR closed up 8.20% at 6.6c, sellers at 7c or only 160K shares between 6.6c + 9c, imo target is the 150ema and 61.8% FIB Line at 8.6c

PLV closed up 12.3% at 41c and 1st target is 45.5c, yet once broken could-will-should easily fly into the 50's so heads up at breaking 45.5c

I was so caught up in a few others trades today I forgot to add to my PLV position (doh) but ahh well, if it breaks 45.5c I will add another small position.

The recent bonce in markets sure does make it much easier to trade, unlike weeks prior.

A few other small positions have also been taken in MEY, TCM, MAD (as previously mentioned) CGV, ECM plus I missed getting into a few other positions whereby I would not (as Strat says) cough up, but now wish I had, but ahh well, that's trading for you, cant always catch everything on time.

I am still holding CEO (up 782%) and CEOO (up 3,150%) in my long term account as well as GLFOB (up 137.5%), ECM (up 4.1%), PLV (even) MOX and ROB currently both sitting slightly in the red.

Well, thats my update, hope everyone had a good day.
Cheers :)

[gazprom1]

Well done on FXR DF....another nice move up today. Good luck with it.

Gaz

[drillfix]

Well done on FXR DF....another nice move up today. Good luck with it.

Gaz

Cheers Gaz, After such move today, I could see the 7 zone starting to populate with sellers, which to me starts to show many are wanting to take profits and leave, so then I then chose to take some off the table with FXR.

Plus there has been a gap up from 6.6c to 6.9c to fill it seems. May put another order in there somewhere to see if I am right or not.

Hope your day is good.

[STRAT]

CRJ.

Down trend ended ahead of the general market on a clear increase in volume after finding clear support at 1.6c
Looking for a close above 2.4c and an intraday high above 2.5cCRJ doin what was expected/hoped for. Lookin for a break through 3.7c now. That may be slower comming.

[drillfix]

JKA

Anybody else out there on this?

In at 11.5c and certainly does seem to be in play~!


Also forgot to add AED

Anybody in this? We have a technical breakout. In at 12c (my target 18.5c)

[evilroyrule]

not me drill. its been pumped and dumped for weeks. check out the ura thread on hc. it will make you laugh. they living in a world far away from ours. ha ha

[drillfix]

Hi ER,

AED has not been pumped, its not 14.5c as I write which is up 26% since open. My target remains and I hope it hits it tomorrow actually as I could do with a strong close and be out pre-weekend. (depending).

JKA has been a bit pumped I guess but the Technicals still looks good. 60 min MACD histogram upward divergence giving a 2nd wind of strength potential. Will see how that plays out at EOD.

Dont have the time or energy to read URA stuff, although I think Zed was on holiday and all the Rampers were having a party there with their new Bull Sh#t Ramper called Martis or something. He will put scorp out of a job and entice more suckers to the cake so to speak. Martis has TA skills better of that than a school kid with building blocks, and yet so many people who are unaware seem to believe him like he knows something. What a joke, and shame that Moderators let such a continual BS artist loose on such form.

Although I guess each to their own though and its better over there than here otherwise its back to War to shut them up. Other wise in the meantime, hope Zed gets back there to balance out the reality because as you say ER, they are on a different planet, very very much different than this one.

Kate Hobbs the leader of the New Dreamer Society which promises everything and delivers absolutely nothing time and time again.

Compete Joke and somebody more than Zed should be giving people heads up about that Career Criminal woman dressed up as a CEO.

[drillfix]

60 min MACD histogram upward divergence giving a 2nd wind of strength potential. Will see how that plays out at EOD.



But then again, with JKA lots of support at 13c but MACD 60min histogram changing lower again. Just doing the cycles and it changes within the hourly period upward and downward so no doubt may take a breather for a while. In the meantime anything can happen although just going with the flow atm.

[drillfix]

AED, wow, looks it might be today the target gets smashed.

Much better than JKA today. Actually CRAP finish with typical behavior which i should have kept an eye on to make my exit, stupid me, but sitll holding with small profit, but better take caution.

You are right ER, way over ramped and may show further weakness tomorrow and early next week.

[Huang Chung]

Someone put some hot chilli into Hot Chilli (HCH) :eek2:

Up 9c to 70c on no news. Could have bought them yesterday as low as 57c.

Disc: Holding.

[soulman]

AED, wow, looks it might be today the target gets smashed.

Much better than JKA today. Actually CRAP finish with typical behavior which i should have kept an eye on to make my exit, stupid me, but sitll holding with small profit, but better take caution.

You are right ER, way over ramped and may show further weakness tomorrow and early next week.

Wow, AED P and D in full swing. Might see another P in the morning tomorrow and the D in the afternoon.

How's the market treating you Drill.

[wizAlvin]

my Gizard scan [EIM, EXG, GTR, AUK, INE, ZYL, ]
regards

[drillfix]

Hi Soulman,

Market when moving upwards is easy to deal with. Going or falling downward I am finding very problematic.

Another day however anything could happen so best to treat each day with an open view.

Forgot to say, yeah, AED approach with caution though I feel somebody is supporting the stock and as you say, its being pumped, but does not seem to being dumped (as yet).

[drillfix]

edit, cancel that order with fries please, Bad call I think.

[soulman]

Hi Soulman,

Market when moving upwards is easy to deal with. Going or falling downward I am finding very problematic.

Another day however anything could happen so best to treat each day with an open view.

Forgot to say, yeah, AED approach with caution though I feel somebody is supporting the stock and as you say, its being pumped, but does not seem to being dumped (as yet).

The dump will come but maybe next week. Or usually in the last half hour. Although the dump will probably still give it a B/E for the day. As per usual, somebodys will get caught, somebodys will make a little and somebodys will make a kerching. All in the game of trading.

[drillfix]

Easy to see that I probably should have stayed in AED there soulman, but made an exit yesterday whilst uncertainty lingered over EU debt.

Not to worry a profits a profit and thats all that matters, can't really let the fact that there was more there bother me else it ruins one's trader mindset.

Hey, did you see my post to trackers regarding a nice DA trading platform which is excellent for both swing trading and scalping? Works best with IB and a few other live data feeds but also works with Yahoo and Google, check it out or Google MultiCharts and there is a free version which is really cool and useful. Plus I think you will like it so do check it out :)

[soulman]

Thanks Drill, I'll take a look.

You are right about the mindset of a trader. Once a trader become experience or semi-experience, a trader must look beyond hindsight bias and stick to the plan. Good exit, early exit, bad losses, bad timing, opportunity to make more or take lesser losses ALL part of the game. The aim is to improve. Hence, a written approach and comment on each trade and the reason. Plus, a profit is a profit, although maximising it are also important and one that I am trying to improve. The more you do, the better you get.

I have more to learn about patient and holding on to long-term winners.

Good luck and profitable trading to all.

[drillfix]

Wow, your not wrong there KW.

a near 15c spread for the day so far. Sellers drying up yet, buyers also partially patient.

Although, this stocks was 70c just about a week or so ago so why the sell off back down to 27c I wonder??

In the meantime, there is a breakout on the Hourly chart and Huge Gap to fill upwards to 65c there about.

[trackers]

Wow, your not wrong there KW.

a near 15c spread for the day so far. Sellers drying up yet, buyers also partially patient.

Although, this stocks was 70c just about a week or so ago so why the sell off back down to 27c I wonder??

In the meantime, there is a breakout on the Hourly chart and Huge Gap to fill upwards to 65c there about.

Rumour of a big competitor launching a very similar product was what I got from the announcement the other day while I was watching it go backwards at a great rate of knots - IMHO only I might have read it wrong

[drillfix]

Are either of you guys in or have been holding?

[drillfix]

Yeah its a real pickle when we get unexpectedly caught out like that and find ourselves in complete disarray.

Problem is when stocks gap down like that, if you had a stop in play, you may get stopped out at 55c or something which gets triggered depending if its a market order, sometimes there may not be a seller until 30c so there is no point at times having stops in place. Stops I reckon can destroy you some times and they dont guarantee you get your price unless its triggered and then conditionally sits there. (way up where nobody will buy).

I think I would have done the same too given the fall and circumstances around it. Although it would also depend on what other trades and profits where around that time too.

Good luck with that one KW.

[drillfix]

Anybody out there jump into BSL for a scalp?

(had a quick successful scalp yesterday that lasted 2 min)

Here is a chart of the intraday move and some completely oversold indicators making it easy entry on the all 5, 15, and 60 minute charts.

Hope somebody caught a piece of it. Check it out: >> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/bfjx11zbqy0q9atmfbc4_BSL-IntraDay.png

[evilroyrule]

Anybody out there jump into BSL for a scalp?

(had a quick successful scalp yesterday that lasted 2 min)

Here is a chart of the intraday move and some completely oversold indicators making it easy entry on the all 5, 15, and 60 minute charts.

Hope somebody caught a piece of it. Check it out: >> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/bfjx11zbqy0q9atmfbc4_BSL-IntraDay.png

hi drilly, jumped in here today at 1.8c. looks the goods id say. keep up the good work, its always nice to have you around:)

[drillfix]

hi drilly, jumped in here today at 1.8c. looks the goods id say. keep up the good work, its always nice to have you around:)

Hi ER,

Thanks for the kind words mate.

Although, what do you mean jumped in at 1.8c ? Are you talking about BSL or another stock? As BSL is currently trading at approx 87c

[evilroyrule]

i got me some haw at 1.8. trying to get on the right side of another p and d!

[drillfix]

i got me some haw at 1.8. trying to get on the right side of another p and d!

Ahh ok, I see.

Well done there then ER, although dont forget to take some profit along the way :)

[evilroyrule]

mate if im left holding today i shall be giving myself a good dressing down. not a good dressing gown as i first typed. ha ha. making myself laugh today!

[Entrep]

Massive $30K sell order in SLT went through at .5c and picked up my buy order.

[Financially dependant]

It's looking like it's BUL turn to breakout, on my chart it gap'ed up out of a year long trend line. The EOD price to confirm and a little bit of testing makes this stock a buy for me (again)!

[drillfix]

Afternoon Folks,

Took a small position with CEO options (again).

Looking at the FPO's it seesm that there is potential for a run as the stock is one of the few that still could be technically in an uptrend.

Check out the chart.

CEO IntraDay >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/dngnchsp95040dji8udc_CEO-IntraDay.png


Looking at the bottom left hand 60 minute chart, you can see two nice green candles rise and remain above the 13ema along with a Macd crossover of signal line and histogram (just). Both the other 5 and 15 min charts also confirm the crossover of the 13ema move.


The daily shows a Macd signal line about to cross (although not quite yet) but the EMA's still remain in the correct order although the 13 has decline which is expect of recent global conditions.

I recall Phaedrus drumming into me about the reliability of the MACD and its back testing. This still echo's in my head but there are some other signs even on a trade that does not last weeks to be probable and one that I dont be the house on.

Adding to comment is that I already hold a parcel of these and options since below 1c :P so I am not betting the house in this particular entry or position taken, but anticipate some gains but will cross that bridge when, should and if that will eventually happen.

Cheers~!

[soulman]

Saw the chart Drill. Looks good and good luck.

Just concentrating on div paying coy with low debt than the specs....for now anyway. SWM are an exception (with high debt) but the shares has been smashed already.

[drillfix]

Saw the chart Drill. Looks good and good luck.

Just concentrating on div paying coy with low debt than the specs....for now anyway. SWM are an exception (with high debt) but the shares has been smashed already.

Cheers soulman, and I dont blame you or anybody else on the div payers, good move in these markets.

Yeah, that SWM are smashed and a complete ski slope. The daily jumped above the 13ema but the Hourly chart looks like its being setup for a potential fall.

Seems the XAO wants to test upward to the middle bollinger band. I am suspicious that we will touch that midpoint then fall back down from there, as the XAO seems to be declining in the lower range of the such bollinger bands.

Of course should that happen then all the charts or gains from any previous sessions will also get wiped away :P

[drillfix]

Hey folks,

Anybody doing anything interesting today?

I myself had a quick attempt at a scalp on ERJ but then got out even, so badly timed on my behalf yet even though I feel it will eventually target 3c +
Into a small position in ADX @ 9.7c for a potential BESB's play, perhaps a target eventually of 14c
Trying again to pickup some ZYL again, yet a slowly does it play.
Another move on CEO today, so still holding a small trading parcel of CEOO for a trade on top of my other small position on previously long held ones.

Looking at a few others yet have a partial concern for EU overnight and what if any effects it may bring over the next couple of days.

[Rusty]

Hi drillfix.
Been sitting on the sidelines lately. The GGG graph looks interesting, tempted to have a small punt. Will be an interesting week. Always find your posts interesting. Cheers

[drillfix]

Cheers Rusty, glad somebody finds them interesting and also sounds off. :)

Anything else takes your eye or temptation?

[drillfix]

Hi drillfix.
Been sitting on the sidelines lately. The GGG graph looks interesting, tempted to have a small punt. Will be an interesting week. Always find your posts interesting. Cheers

Rusty, today is the day, if the XAO we can break past and hold 4,400 I will be a nice time to take some shots, or convert your day trades into swing trades.

[Rusty]

Rusty, today is the day, if the XAO we can break past and hold 4,400 I will be a nice time to take some shots, or convert your day trades into swing trades.

Yeah man its a nice day in the market, in the green. plan is to stay in the green untill gold has finished its correction then get a couple of nice goldies.

[drillfix]

Well whatever the plan is rusty, until the XAO hits a new high, I would still walk a cautious path, as it seems to be a bit of a Fake Out today and profit takers coming out in droves.

Any break below an eventual 4250 downward will see me completely cash out again (up to a point) so looks like today is definitely not a higher recent high.

[Rusty]

Defiantly, Im convinced the market is in a down trend, so ill be keeping any profits. I have a feeling there will be some very profitable miners out there IF gold has another go

[drillfix]

Breakout on APG today - no idea why, no news.

Miss that one KW, although I had to go out and about today so missed a few things really.

Anything moving along for you on the day trade frontier?

Exited out of a couple of positions, one being ADX for a small profit and CEOO (day account) for another small gain, although took a small loss on another trade which I entered with stupidity and a clear reminder of entering low liquidity stocks.

Out of ZYL but wish I held until today, but aint that always the way :P

[soulman]

APG was on fire.

Jeez, how a few hours can change the game.

[Rusty]

Hi drillfix.
Been sitting on the sidelines lately. The GGG graph looks interesting, tempted to have a small punt. Will be an interesting week. Always find your posts interesting. Cheers

Did end up in that trade a few days ago @ 0.56. Would appear to have started an uptrend but Im not convinced. Any thoughts?

[Financially dependant]

Did end up in that trade a few days ago @ 0.56. Would appear to have started an uptrend but Im not convinced. Any thoughts?

IMHO GGG just popped up above a 6 month down trend yesterday and has gone well today, there looks like a solid floor of 0.54c it might retest that again before it heads off but only time will tell...

[JBmurc]

CVR smashed to its biggest volume of it's 4yr history up 21% up 35% for the week--- no announcements-- roadshow next week

[elZorro]

Have a look at CPZ, up 35% today already, on news it's buying a big customer out.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/opinion/car-parking-to-lose-that-personal-touch/story-e6frg9lo-1226143071861

[drillfix]

Dont know about breakouts, but here is some fun stuff.

Took a small position on NTU with the target of the gap eventually becoming filled.

NTU Daily and IntraDay >> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/dq50qud7lwmm2rrj1iit_NTU-IntraDay.png


Also, not sure why, but a little peaved my entry was canned in the preopen. I tried to snag entry at 45c but had order int at 45.5c and thought I would get the auc price of 45c yet IB for some reason took me to the upper price. Slacker McFly, absolute Slacker~!

[drillfix]

Out of NTU for brokerage. (-12 round trip)

To me, if something does not step up, then the odds that it will step down increases, IMO.

On another note,

Anybody take part in that huge gap up in Silex? They were on Lateline Business last night and now today a huge gap up.
Must have been with all the talk of top secret laser technology which if it fell into the wrong hands could be disastrous as it deals with Uranium Enrichment.

Ahh well, lots of chop going on with many stocks and I dont like the chop much.

[STRAT]

You fellas are tough.

Ive been watching yall swimming in that rip over the last month or so.

Think I will stay here on the beach with my beer.

Just remember there aint any life gaurds.

The bank came and took their surfboards and the motors for their boats.

Dont swim too close to that hairy greek fella either. He looks tired to me and hes lookin for some one to grab onto I reckon.

[drillfix]

LOL Strat,

You have a way with words you do mate. But dont worry as I can assure you, no hairy greek mofo is gonna bugger me as I got snorkel, fins and Spear gun ready for next fish :P

ps:
Strat, although it is tough as bricks at times to trade these markets currently, one day when the tide turns, our solitude and conviction (even call it stupidity if you like) will pay off hugely as traders as knowing when your wrong is twice as important than knowing when your right, and in upward markets, is easy to be right however this downfall will help season us further.

[drillfix]

Anybody take part in that huge gap up in Silex?

Cancel that order for burger and fries, as it seems SLX on the daily has triggered a shooting star candle which could easily see the stock dive backward to $2.50 so easy does it for anybody trading this at present.

[STRAT]

Hey G.
You holding some BKP.
Trading Halt today.
Any clue?

[STRAT]

Dont swim too close to that hairy greek fella either. He looks tired to me and hes lookin for some one to grab onto I reckon.Tired and Drunk? Might be the Captain of that Container Ship parked on that under sea Island in the Bay of Plenty

[drillfix]

Anybody watching MZM today, quite incredible watching supply dried up and bidders chasing.

Good results today for Montezuma (well done justin)

[soulman]

Drill, I got this for 30 on the 25th Oct and I knew the TH was big so I got excited.

The announcement was not that bad but not big either. I still hold but wonder about IF only I woke up before the market open, I would have snap up more shares at 34. Can't believe it open at 34.

[drillfix]

Yep, gapped up there soulman.

Although I am surprised that you never unloaded some at 50+c?

I used to buy MZM n the low 20's and MZMO sub 8c ages ago. Good management and they keep the dilution factor to a minimum which is smart operators method of running a good co.

Nice end of the day for CVR, and just missed a few of the dreggs at 3.9c and 4c whilst making a cuppa only to find someone has chomped in at the EOD.

[soulman]

Yep, CVR had a great run today. All the hype from JB and HC lately does the job.

No selling on MZM because I came to watch the market with 2 hours left for trading and MZM was at 42 cents. Missed the opps.

[drillfix]

I couldn't see a thread for this so thought I would post it here in the meantime.

Whilst trading and trying new things be it experimental, fundamental, technical, or even superstitious is becoming a wild mix of investing to say the least.

But check this out.

Having read or known a little about ActiveX (AIV) (having had a couple of previous trades) for a while, I took it upon myself to take a small position the other day as any movement of the stock could be meaning.

Why I think, feel and choose this is because at some stage, I feel there will be a Pump to get the AIVO (ex 8c July 12) in the money so as this will be a lot of money for the co should they do this. (AIVO last price at 0.001c)

Currently AIV sits at 2.5c last trade and not really much between there and 4c.

Bit of a hold and wait type of approach with belief that some action will unfold with view to have these ops converted to cash for the co.

Meanwhile there is are approx 165 Million Shares on issue with 70.7 Million options.
And the co has some QLD tenements for Gold/Silver, Copper, Cobalt, Rare Earths & some Potash in WA.

Key holders of the AIV are:
M Ruane holds 13.7% - Findex Pty Ltd holds 6.4% - Top 20 holds 46% or - Top 50 holds 63%

Check out this link to a presentation from Oct 2011 which may also be of interest:

>>> http://ircast.com.au/conferences/online/m2k11/pres/2210/


If the company can get the options in the money then it will save further raising and dilution at lower prices so a small position I take in the theory that this will happen.

Anybody wish to add some thoughts?



ps:
Shasta, you Da man with the Fundies, would appreciate your take on this?
(as I thought you did a post some time ago about this on your list I think).

[STRAT]

I couldn't see a thread for this so thought I would post it here in the meantime.

Whilst trading and trying new things be it experimental, fundamental, technical, or even superstitious is becoming a wild mix of investing to say the least.

But check this out.

Having read or known a little about ActiveX (AIV) (having had a couple of previous trades) for a while, I took it upon myself to take a small position the other day as any movement of the stock could be meaning.

Why I think, feel and choose this is because at some stage, I feel there will be a Pump to get the AIVO (ex 8c July 12) in the money so as this will be a lot of money for the co should they do this. (AIVO last price at 0.001c)

Currently AIV sits at 2.5c last trade and not really much between there and 4c.

Bit of a hold and wait type of approach with belief that some action will unfold with view to have these ops converted to cash for the co.

Meanwhile there is are approx 165 Million Shares on issue with 70.7 Million options.
And the co has some QLD tenements for Gold/Silver, Copper, Cobalt, Rare Earths & some Potash in WA.

Key holders of the AIV are:
M Ruane holds 13.7% - Findex Pty Ltd holds 6.4% - Top 20 holds 46% or - Top 50 holds 63%

Check out this link to a presentation from Oct 2011 which may also be of interest:

>>> http://ircast.com.au/conferences/online/m2k11/pres/2210/


If the company can get the options in the money then it will save further raising and dilution at lower prices so a small position I take in the theory that this will happen.

Anybody wish to add some thoughts?



ps:
Shasta, you Da man with the Fundies, would appreciate your take on this?
(as I thought you did a post some time ago about this on your list I think).Interesting pick Drill.
Got a list of top holders of those options?

Apart from a couple of big volume days recently which moved the price up bumping the OBV and a recent divergence in RSI the chart is a bit of a crapper.

[shasta]

I couldn't see a thread for this so thought I would post it here in the meantime.

Whilst trading and trying new things be it experimental, fundamental, technical, or even superstitious is becoming a wild mix of investing to say the least.

But check this out.

Having read or known a little about ActiveX (AIV) (having had a couple of previous trades) for a while, I took it upon myself to take a small position the other day as any movement of the stock could be meaning.

Why I think, feel and choose this is because at some stage, I feel there will be a Pump to get the AIVO (ex 8c July 12) in the money so as this will be a lot of money for the co should they do this. (AIVO last price at 0.001c)

Currently AIV sits at 2.5c last trade and not really much between there and 4c.

Bit of a hold and wait type of approach with belief that some action will unfold with view to have these ops converted to cash for the co.

Meanwhile there is are approx 165 Million Shares on issue with 70.7 Million options.
And the co has some QLD tenements for Gold/Silver, Copper, Cobalt, Rare Earths & some Potash in WA.

Key holders of the AIV are:
M Ruane holds 13.7% - Findex Pty Ltd holds 6.4% - Top 20 holds 46% or - Top 50 holds 63%

Check out this link to a presentation from Oct 2011 which may also be of interest:

>>> http://ircast.com.au/conferences/online/m2k11/pres/2210/


If the company can get the options in the money then it will save further raising and dilution at lower prices so a small position I take in the theory that this will happen.

Anybody wish to add some thoughts?



ps:
Shasta, you Da man with the Fundies, would appreciate your take on this?
(as I thought you did a post some time ago about this on your list I think).

You have a better memory than i do Drilly, but yes AIV was on the LOW EV Resource list, will go suss out that thread & see if the fundamentals still stack up

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?8283-LOW-EV-Resource-exploration-company-List&highlight=MOX

I see i made a few comments re AIV throughout the thread

Last Qtrly
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AIV&E=ASX&N=236786

AIV to my mind is still about the Potash project in WA.

Other thoughts:

- ASX:COY has gone into a JV with AIV, over a Copper/Gold project
- AIV has tenaments close to ASX:IVA (large Copper/Gold/REE's near term producer)
- ASX:IRC also has a small holding in AIV (+ a decent chunk of RWD) re Potash

I personally wouldn't be interested in AIV as a fundamental play, but as a trade i'll leave that to you :D

[drillfix]

Thanks Shasta and Strat for your thoughts.


I will monitor this play as sometimes the quiet stocks are the ones that can double prior to anybody talking about matters.

Seems to be not a bad punt at these levels.

As always, time will tell :)


ps: no top option holders list Start, sorry mate, but let me know if you find one.

Surprised that AIV doesn't have its own thread.

[drillfix]

It appears to have hooked upward now on the 13ema and on cross over action on the 60 min chart.

May check this out for tomorrow KW, although the 10c price zone can be a volatile place to get in or out.

Seems to be setup and will consider tomorrow.

Cheers`!

[drillfix]

CBZ on another big run today, still no news. I'm at work so cant see the volumes or trades, but did you have a look Drillfix? What are your thoughts?


Hi KW, never got to log on till this arvo so had to take care of some other stuff.

Looking at this now, we have

a few more trades today
a similar volume to that of yesterday
a Gap up, to a high of 13.5c and a low of 12c
(in Gap theory, the gap to 10.5c will eventually need to get filled)

Looking at the daily inidcators,

MFI is up higher than the last 2 runs, positive
MACD histogram positive and signal line crossed in the negative zone, positive
Williams %R now overbought and starting to turn down, positive (caution though)
RSI rising upward above 50, positive
OBV moving upward, positive
EMA 13 below price for 2nd day now, positive

External indicators.
Global Futures are flat on the US and only marginally positive on EU, Neutral
SPI (SNFE) has failed to break past the previous resistance (high) still, Neutral

Comment
These seem like normal trading for CBZ with volumes somewhere near average.
CBZ usually mainly trades with a 1 to 2c so this is also normal'ish

If me were entering, I would put a 15 or 16c target on that and a stop at 9.9c with a hopefully entry at 11.5c

Not sure if I will take a position over the weekend, but might or wait until next week.

ps:
Dahhh, some large order just appeared above me at 12c, bloody stock monkeys :P

[drillfix]

KW, had an order in for CBZ which just got missed but then ended up lowering it as for a moment there, I thought there was going to be a collapse.

Left a small low ball GTC order in just in case any fall continues, yet I think price has now become stable again.


On another note, has anybody played with BNE today?

Its up only a slight 175% today from a low of 0.009 to 2.5c on quite a poor performing All Ords day.

Will monitor the action tomorrow and perhaps test the water for a scalp trade if the flags are green.


Soulman, you seem to catch these type of stock moves while on the roll, did you catch any of BNE today?

[soulman]

No Drill. Saw them drop quite a few today. Traders certainly playing with BNE. Someones did get caught at the top as always. Lucky it wasn't me.

Got good result with LEI yesterday after reading their update. Unfortunately sold too early today. Looking at them now just got me pissed.

[drillfix]

No Drill. Saw them drop quite a few today. Traders certainly playing with BNE. Someones did get caught at the top as always. Lucky it wasn't me.

Got good result with LEI yesterday after reading their update. Unfortunately sold too early today. Looking at them now just got me pissed.


Ahh well, though whatever you do, dont get pissed Souly as you are too far above that, mate.

Plenty more out there for you get hold of that's fer sure :)

[Financially dependant]

A few uranium stocks doing well today...PDN up over 10%...

[soulman]

A few breakouts today. I reckon AFR (due to an online tip) and MTE.

[STRAT]

GOR showing signs of life over the last few days

[Huang Chung]

After inching its way up over the past week or so, ZYL broke it's shackles today with a gain of 4c to 25c. Market has finally started to wake up to at least two parties potentially looking to take them out.

[drillfix]

Yes HC well done and indeed what a day for ZYL.

Feel a little silly as I have been sitting there watching them go up whilst watching other stocks, but no point in kicking myself over it~!

Will continue watching.

[soulman]

ZYL yes...thanks HC. Ride it to 24 cents. You are in for the LT HC?

I still got some for tomorrow's potential and judging by the acceleration before closed, it could well go another 10% early tomorrow morning.

[Huang Chung]

ZYL yes...thanks HC. Ride it to 24 cents. You are in for the LT HC?

I still got some for tomorrow's potential and judging by the acceleration before closed, it could well go another 10% early tomorrow morning.

I really don't think there will be a 'long term' for ZYL Soulman.....I doubt the company will still be on the boards by June.

[biology12]

go ZYL!!!!!

[soulman]

Another rise for ZYL......although looks to be tapered off near the end. I am all out today.

This ZYL breakout happened but not for MTE and AFR that I pointed out before. Such a game. Some takes off and some just goes backwards.

[drillfix]

Yes souly, traffic conditions of trading can sometimes be some get stuck at the lights and others in a traffic Jam, but as long as you get one you'll be ok :)

Are you holding positions in all 3 of these souly?

[soulman]

None in ZYL. Sold a few in AFR for a loss (still got half) and still have the whole MTE sitting on paper loss.

[Huang Chung]

Was please to see ZYL hold yesterday's gains. Looking very solid. Still only priced around last year's pre-consolidation highs, and that was before that added Mbila to the mix. Mbila is a high positive, as it gives ZYL the possibility of selling increasingly scarce high grade anthracite into the domostic South African market...possibly even via sale at the mine gate.

My holding is now at its highest level, and I'll most likely add to my holdings on any pullback.

[soulman]

Let's hope RES will be the next coal company in South Africa to get a breakout.

[soulman]

Looks like BND is breaking out today.

Also CSE is churning a few volume this morning. CSE actually trading at a discount to mrt cap based on their 11 mil shares in SYR and $3.1 mil cash. SYR looks interesting with their East Africa land footprint.

Many breakouts proved to be wrong ATM.

[soulman]

CSE and SYR breaks today. BND having another 10 mil plus volume.

RXL past 2 announcement looks interesting. MAD still going mad.

[drillfix]

Hi souly, made any entries into these?

Was tempted by MAD whilst going MAD but keep missing an entry and become to reluctant to chase.

RXL also tempting but again a bit late in the piece and seems to be near the top of a declining channel.

[soulman]

I did with CSE and SYR yesterday. Only got partially filled with SYR but still good with the sale price of 28 cents today. Sold CSE at 4 cents. I still hold some BND and MAD.

Just entered RXL.

What about yourself Drill. Any action?

[drillfix]

Not much from me souly, had to do a small tidy up as we had some rain come through a skirting facing above some windows last night so its been a pretty wet day over here.

Between toggling back and forth and doing a couple other chores, I seem to miss a few moves and then not worry to much about chasing.

Holding a few for a more longer play, ie: PXG, NWE, now CVR from the other day but not fully focused.

Forgot about RXL and been a while since jumping on that but partially concerned about potential profit takers closing the day back down. As always, time will tell ~!

[soulman]

Last sold CVR for 3.9 for a loss and today sold NWE for a lost at 3.4. Yeah, my patient with stagnant stock is very poor.

And it hurts when they recover. Like WPG, AFR and DRM.

Got CBZ completely wrong but luckily sold them for 10.5. For a 2 day holding and 25% loss. Ouch...

[soulman]

Been tracking VEC and MZM lately and based on gut instinct, might be due for a breakout for both stock.

[drillfix]

Hi there AA, how the heck are ya mate, been a while since reading any posts.

Hope all things are well there in AA land, and hope to see a few more posts whenever possible :)

[soulman]

Just tracking the movement of NSE late Friday. Positive signs and buyers churning volume at the end of the trading day.

Might be a stock to watch come Monday. VEC should continue it's buyers interest.