TIL - Trilogy [formerly ECO - Ecoya]

[jim9358]

There are 1200 shareholders / brand ambassadors for Trilogy products.

Lovely products on display to test. I would have bought some if they were for sale! But I'll find retail outlets this afternoon.

WTF! sp just dropped near on a dollar! What? did they have a riot there ?

Oh well, bargain time, been waiting for a dip in something to take up more, looks like it's TIL

[ShouldHaveHeld]

^ LOL


Just bought a few more at 3.85. Hopefully this drop is an overreaction.
Yeah "hopefully", give it some days for the smell to settle. Just look at CVT, think it dropped to 9.70 after their news but look at it now.

[JayRiggs]

Was hoping for a better afternoon tea. Some dry scones, little cake slices with cream on top and a plate of pineapple, kiwifruit and grapes.

[Blendy]

WTF! sp just dropped near on a dollar! What? did they have a riot there ?

No riot - I think everyone was a bit oblivious to the market reaction. However I picked up some (hopefully) at a bargain :)

[stoploss]

Was hoping for a better afternoon tea. Some dry scones, little cake slices with cream on top and a plate of pineapple, kiwifruit and grapes.

Hope they had some decent bevies ,Boysey might have needed a couple of shots of Whiskey...

[winner69]

That guidance just told me my DCF assumptions were a load of rubbish

Guidance doesn't even beat my (highly) conservative scenario and that had a DCF value of $3.15

Must be spending heaps on 'investment for the future' to have such a low guidance.

Not really enough to go by yet so need to wait for half year financials to see where the cash is going - hope it nots more investment in candles

[vin]

Ugh. Didn't play my cards right with TIL. Ahh well, didn't lose money. I'm out. (for the second time)

Needing to accumulate cash for property.

[janner]

Sold 40% of holding a few weeks ago @ $4.51..

Not clever .. Needed some cash .. I am happy that I picked this stock to sell though..

Could have been SKL.. ( gone up )..

[stevevai1983]

i think when they said "F17 outperform market growth" everyone was thinking about 30%+- growth exclude CS, and that supported 30PE...but now if you exclude CS, we don't have much growth left..
TIL is one of my major holding (about 13% of total investment before today's drop) so i took a big hit :(

[jim9358]

^ LOL


Yeah "hopefully", give it some days for the smell to settle. Just look at CVT, think it dropped to 9.70 after their news but look at it now.

hi shouldhaveheld, well done! ...any idea what over-reaction is to? I was just going to say same thing happened CVT ! the "chicken littles" must have run out screaming "the sky is falling in" ! ...hope they stay out.

[Jinx]

Pretty big market overeaction imo, managed to sell out at $4.40 when the market first started to react only to buy back in at $3.80.
Still believe in the long term story of TIL.

[stoploss]

Pretty big market overeaction imo, managed to sell out at $4.40 when the market first started to react only to buy back in at $3.80.
Still believe in the long term story of TIL.

The posted Low I can see today is $ 3.81 how did you manage that ?

[Jinx]

The posted Low I can see today is $ 3.81 how did you manage that ?

Sorry should have been more specific! Brought at $3.83

[trader_jackson]

hi shouldhaveheld, well done! ...any idea what over-reaction is to? I was just going to say same thing happened CVT ! the "chicken littles" must have run out screaming "the sky is falling in" ! ...hope they stay out.

Note: CVT and TIL are very different business:
For starters: CVT makes a product that 'only' increases in value and is very hard to produce to a high quality in the world on a mass scale, TIL makes nice products, but anyone can make them in their garage
The reaction therefore will be different: for example, CVT did not immediately fall 18% in a couple of minutes

Also interesting how winner69 has seemed to have had a massive change in heart ;)

[jim9358]

Pretty big market overeaction imo, managed to sell out at $4.40 when the market first started to react only to buy back in at $3.80.
Still believe in the long term story of TIL.

ROTFLMFHO ... yer already in the money , bounce to 4.1 already. ..truly amazed :confused:

[Jinx]

ROTFLMFHO ... yer already in the money , bounce to 4.1 already. ..truly amazed :confused:

This was my first 'trade' on the stock market. Cant say it was a bad one!

[Baa_Baa]

Sorry should have been more specific! Brought at $3.81

Well done! The single trade at the day-low price $3.81 2:53:49pm 26,696 for $101,712

[winner69]

Be back to $4.50 by end of day at this rate

[Jinx]

Well done! The single trade at the day-low price $3.81 2:53:49pm 26,696 for $101,712

Whoops I'm a fibber! 8324

My apologies for the misinformation, currently trying to do 4 things at once!

EDIT: No purposeful misleading was intended, changed my buy orders from 3.80 to 3.81 to 3.83 to 3.85 and only just figured out which one got filled!

[winner69]

Also interesting how winner69 has seemed to have had a massive change in heart ;)

Been uneasy for a month or so but boysy and sb9 kept telling me not to worry. The sins were there.

Never mind - do some more sums and reassess

Just haven't made as much on this as i had yesterday but still very successful

Cant sell just like that - be $2 if I did that

[jim9358]

Been to shareholder meets before, one does meet all "types", those determined to be grumpy (sometimes valid), but, what's not to like...

Prob. right winner69, be back up and leave those of us remaining wondering what on earth it was all about ;-)

__________________________________________________ ________________________________________
as at 13:58:55, Thursday 22 September, 2016 (NZT)
FORECAST: TIL: Trilogy International Ltd Provides 1H17 and FY17 Guidance
TIL
22/09/2016 13:58
FORECAST
PRICE SENSITIVE
REL: 1358 HRS Trilogy International Limited

FORECAST: TIL: Trilogy International Ltd Provides 1H17 and FY17 Guidance

Trilogy International Ltd Provides 1H17 and FY17 Guidance

New Zealand, 22 September 2016- Trilogy International Limited (NZX:TIL) (the
Company or TIL) announced today at the AGM, revenue and EBITDA guidance for
the half year and full year of FY17.

For the six months ending 30 September 2016, TIL expects revenue of $47.5
million, an increase of 62% compared to the first half 2016, and EBITDA to be
$7.0 million, reflecting a 32% increase compared to the first half 2016.

For the twelve months ending 31 March 2017, the Company expects revenue to be
approximately $100 million to $110 million, reflecting an increase of 20% -
32% compared to FY16. Based on TIL's previously communicated investment
intentions, TIL expects EBITDA to be approximately $19 million to $21
million, reflecting an increase of 17% - 29% compared to FY16.

"After a remarkable FY16, being able to back it up and deliver 62% revenue
growth for 1H17 represents a strong performance from the TIL brands and
CS&Co," said Angela Buglass, TIL Chief Executive Officer. "Given the
significant opportunity for TIL to drive long term sales and market growth,
this year is about investing in the business to make it fit for the future
and to support strategic priorities. I am pleased with where we will land
first half and I know we are in a powerful position to take confident strides
forward and deliver continued success in the future".

Geoff Ross, TIL Chairman, said, "TIL's expected performance in FY17
demonstrates our ability to build scale in our brands, and the value of the
CS&Co acquisition in its first full year as a wholly owned subsidiary of TIL.
We are well positioned for the future and look forward to continuing to
execute on our strategic priorities".

1H17 Guidance ($M) FY17 Guidance ($M)
Revenue 47.5 ~100 - 110
EBITDA 7.0 ~19 - 21

[sb9]

Could well be a wipe out if any update is not good

Bit of a worry

Kinda on the cards wasn't it, if guidance isn't great today's price reaction was always expected.

Next few weeks is key until the ASX listing happens, shall wait and see.

[trader_jackson]

Well finished at $4.05, a stock that is use to 'only going up' with 'ever increasing ambitions' down 12.9% on the back of a few words in just an hour or so of trading... imagine if those words really did 'come true' and the actual result showed sales really were slowing (and slowing down fast...) in fact imagine if they missed their already "extremly average" lower end forecast?

Scary times, time will tell if the price has stabilised ... good luck to the holders (and well done to those who got in a 3.8x... I'd sell now while you are still in the green;))

Not advice, just thoughts

[winner69]

Geoff said they are 'well positioned'

Thats worth a few cents on the share price

[winner69]

Angela said

“After a remarkable FY16, being able to back it up and deliver 62% revenue growth for 1H17 represents a strong performancefrom the TIL brands and CS&Co,” said Angela Buglass, TIL Chief Executive Officer. “Given the significant opportunity for TIL to drive long term sales and market growth, this year is about investing in the business to make it fit for the future and to support strategic priorities. I am pleased with where we will land first half and I know we are in a powerful position to take confident stridesforward and deliver continued success in the future”.

Plenty of strong positive words in that - wonder what business shool she went to?

[muss1]

Well finished at $4.05, a stock that is use to 'only going up' with 'ever increasing ambitions' down 12.9% on the back of a few words in just an hour or so of trading... imagine if those words really did 'come true' and the actual result showed sales really were slowing (and slowing down fast...) in fact imagine if they missed their already "extremly average" lower end forecast?

Scary times, time will tell if the price has stabilised ... good luck to the holders (and well done to those who got in a 3.8x... I'd sell now while you are still in the green;))

Not advice, just thoughts

Is the scaremongering really necessary? Forecast top line growth (history of conservatism) without CS and Co is a bit below the "better than market growth rates" previously quoted. That's to say it's still up around 20% for natural products and 15% for Ecoya (I've assumed the split).

Paying up to to fund growth is another debate, but that's the other part of the story.

My full year rev estimates were 113m and EBITDA 24m (explained by margins), so don't get me wrong I'm disappointed. I think they will beat guidance though. The story is intact, and the difference is mostly down to EBITDA margin. A piece of Asia UK or USA over the next few years and it's all worth it. If not, that's the risk you take on.

[jim9358]

Is the scaremongering really necessary? Forecast top line growth (history of conservatism) without CS and Co is a bit below the "better than market growth rates" previously quoted. That's to say it's still up around 20% for natural products and 15% for Ecoya (I've assumed the split).

Paying up to to fund growth is another debate, but that's the other part of the story.

My full year rev estimates were 113m and EBITDA 24m (explained by margins), so don't get me wrong I'm disappointed. I think they will beat guidance though. The story is intact, and the difference is mostly down to EBITDA margin. A piece of Asia UK or USA over the next few years and it's all worth it. If not, that's the risk you take on.

Look forward to your further analysis: You're right, the ...... and ..... is unnecessary and unwarranted. How can people believe the co. is tanking with such sales growth as this ... "the Company expects revenue to be approximately $100 million to $110 million, reflecting an increase of 20% - 32% compared to FY16." ? Sure, infinite trajectory growth does not happen anywhere in the Universe but these people state they have not finished their plan. There is no sign they've hit their ceiling for penetration of world markets. I feel the .... and .... here without analytical basis to comment should just .... leave the rest of us to get on with supporting the company! ((hope this edit acceptably soft enough?))

[LAC]

The AGM was good, if there were any worried shareholders there then the questions would have reflected that but everyone seemed pleased (myself included). Ross did make clear that the new shares introduced cut debt dramatically and I think they will look at further acquisitions. Angela sounded like they are still far from finished with their growth plans.
I agree, the scaremongering is a heap of nonsense. There's still good growth for 2017 and I am sure most people on here never expected the previous growth to be sustainable. Nothing has changed for me with TIL, ASX listing will be good (end of OCT as noted by Ross).
Will stock up at these prices:)

[winner69]

The full year announcement presentation had a slide that said CS proforma FY sales were $42.2m and ebitda of $6.7m

Plug those into the group performance for FY16 then F17 real growth rates are -

Revenues $110m is +14% (H1 +11% and H2 +16%)
EBITDA $21m is +15% (H1 -3% H2 +27%)

Not really that flash are they, especially the H1 numbers. A bit different from the stated 62% and 32% for H1 aren't they

I think we need to assume the H1 guidance is close to reality - half year almost over and pretty embarrassing for them if numbers are much different

Really need to wait for more detailed H1 numbers in November to really assess the situation

And Jim I am a doubter at the moment and I not going to bugger off

[winner69]

The AGM was good, if there were any worried shareholders there then the questions would have reflected that but everyone seemed pleased (myself included). Ross did make clear that the new shares introduced cut debt dramatically and I think they will look at further acquisitions. Angela sounded like they are still far from finished with their growth plans.
I agree, the scaremongering is a heap of nonsense. There's still good growth for 2017 and I am sure most people on here never expected the previous growth to be sustainable. Nothing has changed for me with TIL, ASX listing will be good (end of OCT as noted by Ross).
Will stock up at these prices:)

Were people aware during the meeting that the share price was tanking?

Just interested

[forest]

Yes some of them were and to show that not all people at the AGM perceive the forecast in the same way, I believe at least one was buying and another was selling. I sold some myself however from talking to the CEO afterwards and observing her body language I think the results in November might pleasantly surprise us.

[winner69]

Yes some of them were and to show that not all people at the AGM perceive the forecast in the same way, I believe at least one was buying and another was selling. I sold some myself however from talking to the CEO afterwards and observing her body language I think the results in November might pleasantly surprise us.

If in November results are a surprise then surely todays guidance so close to the end of the half year are a load of the proverbial

Wouldn't be a good look from both a disclosure and credibility point of view

You never know though

[Joshuatree]

Curious what prompted you to sell, forest and then be bullish about the company? Looks like that sell off was not long after the meeting started (2pm).

[forest]

Joshuatree your right, first impression seeing the forecast numbers was disappointed.
Winner your right too in that the numbers in November are likely close to what has been announced at the AGM, but what the CEO was alluring to that in November when we get the results we will also get an explanation to why the numbers are the way they are. I could be wrong of-course but it seems to me she has some good news on her sleeve. (I am speculating here but this years profits might be lowered by one off expenses which the company prefers not to announce at this stage).
Time will tell.

[winner69]

Yes forest - must be 'investing' for the future which would account for lower than expected forecast numbers

Seems we/market have to have faith and believe there is substance to the hype and the future is bright.

[Blendy]

Were people aware during the meeting that the share price was tanking?

Just interested

I'm not certain many people were - there was no mention of it during the questions, and I didn't see any of the Board looking worriedly at their phones. I only found out because I was live blogging the event on here, and naturally saw the posts from others not at the meeting who were reacting to the market announcement at the same time. I bought some at $3.85 because the general sentiment from staff and Board was that everything is great and they have plenty of big plans to continue on with.

I thought however that the comment along the lines of "2016 will always be regarded as a stand out year" indicated that we shouldn't expect the same growth trajectory next year. Pretty realistic really, I thought. I think their revenue target of $100m is going to be a major target for all within the business, and no doubt their performance management internally will be driving towards this.

[kiora]

Trajectory on target.Sell off volume not problematic yet.Neither buyer or seller

[co0p]

Hi all,
First post after stumbling across sharetrader a couple of months ago.
TIL makes up a significant proportion of my portfolio, so I was pretty shocked when I saw the guidance for 1H17. I’ve now had a chance to consider the additional information provided in the presentation and I’m fairly happy with the result.

In my mind, the key event during the 1H was CS & Co taking over the NZ distribution of natural products in July. In my mind, this would have impacted the 1H result in two ways:


As mentioned in the presentation, the inventory is still held within the group cannot be recognised as sales. This impact will be a one-off assuming stock levels are consistent going forward. The impact on sales and EBITDA in the 1H are (1.5M) and (0.9M) respectively.
Vitaco the previous distributor would have purchased less as they ran down their inventory before losing distribution rights. The impact on sales and EBITDA in the 1H cannot be quantified.


The other interesting disclosure was the 1.2M “investment” in the Goodness brand. In my mind the fact this was highlighted suggests it was extraordinary, and perhaps expenditure of that magnitude is a one-off (no mention of trilogy expenditure).

If we strip out these unusual impacts the 1H EBITDA would be at least 9.1M. We now have guidance for the full year, assuming TIL land at the top end we are looking at EBITDA of 14M for the 2H implying 27% growth over pcp. I’m happy with that.

[Blendy]

The other interesting disclosure was the 1.2M “investment” in the Goodness brand. In my mind the fact this was highlighted suggests it was extraordinary, and perhaps expenditure of that magnitude is a one-off (no mention of trilogy expenditure).


Welcome, and thanks for your first post!

I think your comment here about Goodness is correct - this is a new brand that they grew from nothing and obviously it required 'investment' to get it off the ground. I had a lovely chat to the Goodness Brand Manager who is extremely passionate about it, and their plans to make this be the next 'everyday' skincare brand across NZ and Australia as a really fun and affordable brand that appeals to a wide range of demographics. Their sales channel is supermarkets and Farmers, while Trilogy is more premium in health stores and pharmacies etc. I wouldn't expect them to 'invest' this level of money again next year in the marketing and brand development, so I agree with you that it's an extraordinary expenditure.

[percy]

Hi all,
First post after stumbling across sharetrader a couple of months ago.
TIL makes up a significant proportion of my portfolio, so I was pretty shocked when I saw the guidance for 1H17. I’ve now had a chance to consider the additional information provided in the presentation and I’m fairly happy with the result.

In my mind, the key event during the 1H was CS & Co taking over the NZ distribution of natural products in July. In my mind, this would have impacted the 1H result in two ways:


As mentioned in the presentation, the inventory is still held within the group cannot be recognised as sales. This impact will be a one-off assuming stock levels are consistent going forward. The impact on sales and EBITDA in the 1H are (1.5M) and (0.9M) respectively.
Vitaco the previous distributor would have purchased less as they ran down their inventory before losing distribution rights. The impact on sales and EBITDA in the 1H cannot be quantified.


The other interesting disclosure was the 1.2M “investment” in the Goodness brand. In my mind the fact this was highlighted suggests it was extraordinary, and perhaps expenditure of that magnitude is a one-off (no mention of trilogy expenditure).

If we strip out these unusual impacts the 1H EBITDA would be at least 9.1M. We now have guidance for the full year, assuming TIL land at the top end we are looking at EBITDA of 14M for the 2H implying 27% growth over pcp. I’m happy with that.

Welcome,
Great first post.I look forward to reading more of your posts.
Thank you for pointing out the "one-off" inventory impact on EBITDA.

[Snow Leopard]

...In my mind, the key event during the 1H was CS & Co taking over the NZ distribution of natural products in July. In my mind, this would have impacted the 1H result in two ways:


As mentioned in the presentation, the inventory is still held within the group cannot be recognised as sales. This impact will be a one-off assuming stock levels are consistent going forward. The impact on sales and EBITDA in the 1H are (1.5M) and (0.9M) respectively.
Vitaco the previous distributor would have purchased less as they ran down their inventory before losing distribution rights. The impact on sales and EBITDA in the 1H cannot be quantified.


The other interesting disclosure was the 1.2M “investment” in the Goodness brand. In my mind the fact this was highlighted suggests it was extraordinary, and perhaps expenditure of that magnitude is a one-off (no mention of trilogy expenditure)...

1/ Inventory held as stock: Not a one off - this is recurring.

2/ Previous distributor: Possibly had an impact, also possibly not.

3/ It is a true investment and not an expense. It is not a drag on EBITDA.


I have never had the same lofty evaluations for Trilogy that most others have had, and even at the low point yesterday was still above what I consider a sensible price.

So I have now 'lightened' my holding in TIL, should have done it earlier :(.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[jim9358]

The full year announcement presentation had a slide that said CS proforma FY sales were $42.2m and ebitda of $6.7m

Plug those into the group performance for FY16 then F17 real growth rates are -

Revenues $110m is +14% (H1 +11% and H2 +16%)
EBITDA $21m is +15% (H1 -3% H2 +27%)

Not really that flash are they, especially the H1 numbers. A bit different from the stated 62% and 32% for H1 aren't they

I think we need to assume the H1 guidance is close to reality - half year almost over and pretty embarrassing for them if numbers are much different

Really need to wait for more detailed H1 numbers in November to really assess the situation

And Jim I am a doubter at the moment and I not going to bugger off

Would not think one who is actually invested would/should: Apology for that, will try to be more thoughtful ! ;-)

[jim9358]

Hi all,
First post after stumbling across sharetrader a couple of months ago.
TIL makes up a significant proportion of my portfolio, so I was pretty shocked when I saw the guidance for 1H17. I’ve now had a chance to consider the additional information provided in the presentation and I’m fairly happy with the result.

In my mind, the key event during the 1H was CS & Co taking over the NZ distribution of natural products in July. In my mind, this would have impacted the 1H result in two ways:


As mentioned in the presentation, the inventory is still held within the group cannot be recognised as sales. This impact will be a one-off assuming stock levels are consistent going forward. The impact on sales and EBITDA in the 1H are (1.5M) and (0.9M) respectively.
Vitaco the previous distributor would have purchased less as they ran down their inventory before losing distribution rights. The impact on sales and EBITDA in the 1H cannot be quantified.


The other interesting disclosure was the 1.2M “investment” in the Goodness brand. In my mind the fact this was highlighted suggests it was extraordinary, and perhaps expenditure of that magnitude is a one-off (no mention of trilogy expenditure).

If we strip out these unusual impacts the 1H EBITDA would be at least 9.1M. We now have guidance for the full year, assuming TIL land at the top end we are looking at EBITDA of 14M for the 2H implying 27% growth over pcp. I’m happy with that.

Hi coOp! my first few weeks here too!

Good points :)

[stevevai1983]

last year CS only counted for 7.5 month and it generated 28.6m.. this year assume 0 growth for CS, that's 45.8m.
so 83.1-28.6+45.8 = 100.3m already. that means lower end of guidance means no growth at all for TIL. even the high end 110m means little growth.
did i make any mistake?

[Snow Leopard]

1/ Inventory held as stock: Not a one off - this is recurring.


Ah - I may have had a light bulb moment.

I am willing to admit the probability that co0p is a lot more likely to be correct than me on this one.

Ok - third thoughts - I am having a bad day and I can not decide about this :confused:. But it is only $0M9 :mellow:.

Sorry.
Paper Tiger

[percy]

Ah - I may have had a light bulb moment.

I am willing to admit the probability that co0p is a lot more likely to be correct than me on this one.

Ok - third thoughts - I am having a bad day and I can not decide about this :confused:. But it is only $0M9 :mellow:.

Sorry.
Paper Tiger

PT,
You certainly have earnt the right to have "a bad day."...lol.

[co0p]

Thanks for the welcome everyone!

Steve, I think there is some seasonality with CS & Co's sales so it's more useful to use the pro-forma numbers provided by TIL (42.2M).

In FY16 natural products and Ecoya achieved 54.5M in sales. If we assume no growth for CS & Co, then sales guidance for natural products and Ecoya is between 57.8M and 67.8M (6 - 24%).

You will get there PT :)

[stevevai1983]

Thanks for the welcome everyone!

Steve, I think there is some seasonality with CS & Co's sales so it's more useful to use the pro-forma numbers provided by TIL (42.2M).

In FY16 natural products and Ecoya achieved 54.5M in sales. If we assume no growth for CS & Co, then sales guidance for natural products and Ecoya is between 57.8M and 67.8M (6 - 24%).

You will get there PT :)

ahh i see :) thanks
so the higher end of guidance isn't that bad...

[Snow Leopard]

1/ Inventory held as stock: Not a one off - this is recurring.

...


Ah - I may have had a light bulb moment.

I am willing to admit the probability that co0p is a lot more likely to be correct than me on this one.

Ok - third thoughts - I am having a bad day and I can not decide about this :confused:. But it is only $0M9 :mellow:.

Sorry.
Paper Tiger

OK - fourth and final and definitive thoughts: I was right the first time :t_up:.

So the 'adjustments' are definitely irrelevant with regard to this and future years. This is now the normal.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Don't read company announcements and debug software at the same time :p.

[muss1]

I'm still thinking top end of revenue guidance or better. So I'm sticking with my 113m revenue, however I overcooked the EBITDA. Obviously that's a bold call and I wouldn't be buying based on a beat. Will continue to hold though as I like the upside especially from overseas markets over the next couple of years.

On a side note - I've just arrived in the US, staying across the road from a whole foods store in Boston. It's an impressive looking store from the outside, haven't had the chance to go in yet, but will certainly hunt down the trilogy section and report back.

[winner69]

OK - fourth and final and definitive thoughts: I was right the first time :t_up:.

So the 'adjustments' are definitely irrelevant with regard to this and future years. This is now the normal.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Don't read company announcements and debug software at the same time :p.

I think that note in the announcement was intended to imply F17 growth is actually higher in 'comparable terms' - ie notionally rebase F16 by backing these sales that were but now aren't out (of last years figures)

I tend to agree the new normal (with full margin staying in the group)

[winner69]

Almost back to where it was pre meeting

No worries

[sb9]

Almost back to where it was pre meeting

No worries

Told you so, she'll be right..just need to add another 30cents or so and we're there...

[boysy]

45 cents but who's counting should get well over this level once listed on the asx and once valued compared to BWX

[sb9]

1
10
11:53:22 am
420
40,000
$168,000
Off Market


2
9
11:49:00 am
420
40,000
$168,000
Off Market



Decent accumulation at current level...

[sb9]

Add another two lots of 85k and 50K shares to that...just for punters info, nothing much...

[stoploss]

It will continue to tread water until the AGM in a few weeks. Still think TIL will suprise the market with the trading update happy to add to holding at this level.

Boysy that you on the sell side of those transactions ???

[boysy]

Not me stoploss still here waiting for that asx listing. The price discrepancy between BWX and TIL is plain to see

[stoploss]

Not me stoploss still here waiting for that asx listing. The price discrepancy between BWX and TIL is plain to see

So the gap will close up but which way ?
A big seller sitting around off market letting another 200,000 go @ 4.20 ......

[ShouldHaveHeld]

Heard on The-Edge radio station that a book one of the hosts have published includes Ecoya candles as a gift with other things.
Ladies would love it.

[winner69]

Is the infinite shelf a huge opportunity for Trilogy .......or one of it's biggest threats that could inhibit growth expectations

[BlackPeter]

Interesting ... silence on the TIL thread and the SP seems to form a typical "head and shoulders" pattern. Party over?

8338

Discl: didn't really look into fundamentals ... and don't hold;

[mondograss]

I think everyone's just waiting for the ASX listing to be honest.

[BlackPeter]

I think everyone's just waiting for the ASX listing to be honest.

Why is that? If people expect the ASX listing to push the SP up, than they would buy now, wouldn't they? Why wait if they expect the SP to rise?

If they however expect the ASX listing to just add cost without value (there are some other examples around), than they would sell now - wouldn't they?

Why would anybody want to wait for the ASX listing?

[Hectorplains]

Why is that? If people expect the ASX listing to push the SP up, than they would buy now, wouldn't they? Why wait if they expect the SP to rise?

If they however expect the ASX listing to just add cost without value (there are some other examples around), than they would sell now - wouldn't they?


Why would anybody want to wait for the ASX listing?


It's because they are comparing the share price with that of BWX. The thesis is that BMX trades on much higher multiples and Trilogy will 'catch up' once it's listed on the ASX. This is not a theory that I subscribe to.

[mondograss]

It's always a fairly thinly traded stock. I've already got as much as I would want and after the recent weakness I expect anyone that's really wanted more has got it by now. So it's just a case of waiting and seeing what's going to happen when it's matched up against BWX. Whether that's a good thesis or not I don't know, but probably the hard core are as fully committed as they're going to get.

[muss1]

Why is that? If people expect the ASX listing to push the SP up, than they would buy now, wouldn't they? Why wait if they expect the SP to rise?

If they however expect the ASX listing to just add cost without value (there are some other examples around), than they would sell now - wouldn't they?

Why would anybody want to wait for the ASX listing?

People/institutions who don't/can't/won't invest outside the ASX?

Ive been to 3 whole foods market stores so far. Each store appeared hugely popular. Trilogy has been on sale and the shelf stocked in all of them. Haven't found an appropriate employee to ask how frequently they are restocking the shelf.

Im confident the whole foods market chain will continue to thrive from what I've seen. Good signs for Trilogy in the USA hopefully

[sb9]

Why wait for ASX listing??

Same reason many companies from NZX are flocking over there....Pushpay and Synlait to mention of recent ones. Look at what happened to Michael Hill since listing on ASX not to mention A2 Milk, both of which never moved anywhere while being traded on NZX.

The fact that ASX is bigger and wider market can attract wider network of instos and retail investor which otherwise is not possible while being just listed on NZX.

Whether the sp will go up by just being listed on ASX is another theory, perception is it generally does as overseas markets have comparable companies within same industry and possibly higher PE multiples.

And as mondo pointed out most punters here have already invested either at lower price level and/or through SPP. Obviously we all believe in the story and nothing wrong with higher price expectation...

[winner69]

Just bought a few more at 3.85. Hopefully this drop is an overreaction.

From the day of the ASM and that crap guidance

Share price slowly sinking to 385 again - hope only an over reaction this time as well.

[winner69]

One possible downside of ASX listing is if BMX ever has a shocker announcement and their share price tumbles TIL will probably be tarred with same brush and suffer as well.

[stoploss]

Not me stoploss still here waiting for that asx listing. The price discrepancy between BWX and TIL is plain to see

BWX +7, TIL - 4 today , it's just getting wider .
Also 200,000 into the bid at $ 4.00 still a large seller out there .....

[boysy]

Quite right lets see where TIL sits in a months time brokers who cover BWX will be all over TIL like a rash. Seems like TIL is a few weeks behind BWX price action and recent recovery.

[kizame]

Interesting ... silence on the TIL thread and the SP seems to form a typical "head and shoulders" pattern. Party over?

8338

Discl: didn't really look into fundamentals ... and don't hold;

Yep head and shoulders,but also target reached in the day of the AGM, hope it heads higher from here.

[boysy]

https://www.piefunds.co.nz/assets/newsletters/PieFunds-Newsletter-October-2016/Monthly-Newsletter-October2016.pdf

Good breakdown of the trilogy results on page 7

The combination of continued strength in Australian and New Zealand demand, growing brand awareness and emerging o shore growth opportunities (China distribution con rmed) supports a robust earnings pro le. TIL is still trading at an attractive discount to its closest comparable BWX. TIL trades at 20x FY17 PE versus BWX at 26x FY17 PE. The dual listing in Australia in late October or early November could provide a catalyst to close this valuation gap.

[winner69]

Hope 400 holds

Not good if it doesn't

[cdonald]

first time I have really had a look at this company. Very pretty graph, looks a bit like Rakon in the early days. Not too sure that a candle maker is worth close to 300m NZD though.

[sb9]

first time I have really had a look at this company. Very pretty graph, looks a bit like Rakon in the early days. Not too sure that a candle maker is worth close to 300m NZD though.

Few things differ though..

1. Management
2, Industry
3. Profitability
4. Target Market

[co0p]

Few things differ though..

1. Management
2, Industry
3. Profitability
4. Target Market

5. Level of governance

[boysy]

Games being played on the buy depth today not sure how the party selling at 390 this morning feels.

[muss1]

Been into 5 whole foods market stores so far. All have stocked Trilogy. Interestingly, the last one I went to one in Seattle had the latest updated packaging which I believe has only just come out (hadn't seen it in NZ before I left in late September). This can surely only be a good thing as it means good turnover of products. Thoughts?

[sb9]

Been into 5 whole foods market stores so far. All have stocked Trilogy. Interestingly, the last one I went to one in Seattle had the latest updated packaging which I believe has only just come out (hadn't seen it in NZ before I left in late September). This can surely only be a good thing as it means good turnover of products. Thoughts?

Thanks for that insight muss1.

[boysy]

ASX listing next friday

https://www.nzx.com/companies/TIL/announcements/290705

New Zealand, 12 October 2016– Trilogy International Limited (NZX:TIL) (the Company or TIL) today confirmed that it’s ASX Foreign Exemption Listing application has been accepted and quotation on the ASX will occur on Friday, 21 October 2016.

“Following increased interest from investors in Australia and internationally, an ASX listing was a logical next step for the Company,” said Geoff Ross, Chairman of TIL. “We expect the ASX listing will increase market depth and liquidity to further diversify the shareholder base, while also raising brand awareness for TIL in the important Australasian market.”

The ASX ticker code will be TIL, the same used in New Zealand. Trilogy International Ltd will continue to have a full listing on the NZX Main Board. Under the ASX Foreign Exempt Listing Rules, TIL will continue to comply with the Listing Rules of the Company’s home exchange, NZX, and will be exempt from complying with most of the ASX Listing Rules.

Investor and Media contact:
Sonya Fynmore
+64 21 404 206
sonya.fynmore@tilbrands.com

About Trilogy International Ltd
TIL - Trilogy International Limited (NZX:TIL) is a cultivator of essential natural products and home fragrance brands: Trilogy, ECOYA and Goodness in New Zealand and around the world. Its subsidiary CS Company distributes international cosmetics, fragrances, skincare and haircare brands in New Zealand. Visit http://trilogyproducts.com/investors to learn more.

[winner69]

Good eh boysy

That'll see a $5 share price by end of month .....OK by Guy Fawkes day then

Doesn't really deserve $5 yet but we will take it eh

[boysy]

Well it's trading at a 40% discount to BWX one has to remember let's see if the aussies are a bit keener than us kiwis

[winner69]

Well it's trading at a 40% discount to BWX one has to remember let's see if the aussies are a bit keener than us kiwis

Maybe only 20% discount based on ebitda multiples - 17.9 v 14.3 forward guidance. Used ebita as those are the common guidance numbers given

TIL guidance $21m (or $19m which would make gap smaller) / BWX forecast $20.2m plus 'expected 30%' they said

Still richly valued but heaps of growth built in.

But I only in it for share price growth - take it as long as it increases

[sb9]

There is an article behind today's NBR paywall outlining what ASX listing means for TIL. Would someone be kind enough to summarise key points of that article, thx.

[Jinx]

There is an article behind today's NBR paywall outlining what ASX listing means for TIL. Would someone be kind enough to summarise key points of that article, thx.

Gotta love that university login!
Pretty boring article, mostly just restating old facts and figures.

Excitement that a asx listing is very wanted by Aus investors, will increase market depth as well as "The dual listing opens up much more opportunity for us.”
Management stating that growth is expected to slow next year.

Most interesting peice of NBR research - "In the year to March 2016, pharmacy data shows the natural/organic skincare segment grew 21% in New Zealand and 27% in Australia, compared to other skincare, which increased 13% and 14% respectively."

[sb9]

Gotta love that university login!
Pretty boring article, mostly just restating old facts and figures.

Excitement that a asx listing is very wanted by Aus investors, will increase market depth as well as "The dual listing opens up much more opportunity for us.”
Management stating that growth is expected to slow next year.

Most interesting peice of NBR research - "In the year to March 2016, pharmacy data shows the natural/organic skincare segment grew 21% in New Zealand and 27% in Australia, compared to other skincare, which increased 13% and 14% respectively."



Thanks for that Jinx, much appreciated.

[Toulouse - Luzern]

If your NZ Sharetrader Contest returns have plummeted, and you notice that zero PAY shares have sold yeterday and today and the PAY stock price is $0.00, here is the reason ...

Source: Company News Release to NZX

"Pushpay Holdings Limited (NZSX:PPH, ASX:PPH, 'Pushpay' or 'the Company') is *
proud to announce it has successfully commenced quotation on the Australian *
Securities Exchange ('ASX') today at 2:00 pm (NZT) / 12:00 pm (AET) under the *
ticker code 'PPH'. *
*
As previously disclosed, Pushpay has changed its NZX ticker code from 'PAY' *
to 'PPH', effective today, 12 October 2016, in order to ensure that it is *
able to trade on NZX and ASX using the same code. *
*
Pushpay's shareholders will be able to trade their shares on either the NZX *
or the ASX."

My comments

At the moment PPH up today 1 cent at $2.17.

Last day of trading as PAY was at $2.25.

No doubt uncertainty has played a part in the change and the Shldrs will pay the price until the change is widely known.

[Blendy]

Well that does it - Trilogy Rosehip Oil has the Kate Middleton tick of approval. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/lifestyle/news/article.cfm?c_id=6&objectid=11728360

Expect the sp to go insane... (i hope!)

[stoploss]

Well that does it - Trilogy Rosehip Oil has the Kate Middleton tick of approval. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/lifestyle/news/article.cfm?c_id=6&objectid=11728360

Expect the sp to go insane... (i hope!)

Blendy maybe you could ask "The Herald" to keep up with the news ....this story is 18 months old ......Granny herald isn't it ?

http://www.look.co.uk/fashion/meet-kate-middletons-miracle-16-beauty-secret-29957

[Snow Leopard]

Well I think it is very good of the Herald to let you know that after 18 months she is still using it and has not come out with an allergic reaction to it or swapped for a different brand.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Cricketfan]

Blendy maybe you could ask "The Herald" to keep up with the news ....this story is 18 months old ......Granny herald isn't it ?

http://www.look.co.uk/fashion/meet-kate-middletons-miracle-16-beauty-secret-29957

It does seem strange for them to bring it up again, but it's a nice advertorial :)

[Jinx]

Seems like paid advertising to me. Even tells you the price at the bottom.

-Hold

[Blendy]

Yes - while I know it's old news, I figured it was an advertorial most likely generated by TIL's PR team, as it includes where to buy the products and the costs. It was good to see some 'news' anyway, and I'm hoping that they will be pushing this story in Australian media as well to coincide with the ASX listing.

[mondograss]

Well it worked, my wife decided to give it a try, bought some today and will probably switch to it permanently.

[Blendy]

Well it worked, my wife decided to give it a try, bought some today and will probably switch to it permanently.

Good to know! Well done TIL PR team :)

[blobbles]

Well it worked, my wife decided to give it a try, bought some today and will probably switch to it permanently.

Indeed, its very good stuff. My wife tried a while ago and I have been noticing an increase in Trilogy products in the products she uses.

[mondograss]

My wife's allergic to a lot of things out there so had stuck with Apicare for a long time as it worked well for her. But it's a bit hard to get hold of except online so she's hoping Trilogy will be a more convenient alternative.

[stoploss]

Anybody able to shed some light on the NBR Shoeshine story today , behind a paywall so I haven't been able to read it . "Is Trilogy burning out ?"

[trader_jackson]

Anybody able to shed some light on the NBR Shoeshine story today , behind a paywall so I haven't been able to read it . "Is Trilogy burning out ?"

A bit of talk about how aussie institutions will snap TIL up the moment it is listed (on the ASX) and this will lead to higher valuations, ever increasing share prices, $5, $6 $7 etc etc (this is quite possible, if growth is there), but one fund manager will not be buying as quote "there are some aspects of the business that smell a bit off"

Alot of people will also know my bias: I'm "not as keen" as many on TIL... and therefore often shut down as soon as I bring (what I think) is some "realism" to the party... hence the lack of posts on this thread.

I am sure others can provide a more detailed summary of NBR's interesting article, but essentially TIL is still looking 'ok' (in terms of PE), on the balance of things, but watch out, growth may not be as flash as what it looks like

Disclosure: Not holding, believe there are better opportunities that TIL at 4 bucks :)

[winner69]

Love it t_j

$5 .....$6 ....$7 .......why stop there

Wish you were in with us for this ride ....not too late

[BlackPeter]

Yes - while I know it's old news, I figured it was an advertorial most likely generated by TIL's PR team, as it includes where to buy the products and the costs. It was good to see some 'news' anyway, and I'm hoping that they will be pushing this story in Australian media as well to coincide with the ASX listing.

Somewhat concerned about people's expectations re ASX listing. Yes, there are some companies where the ASX listing did help the SP to grow. There are many companies where the ASX listing made no difference at all, and there are some companies, where the ASX listing pushed the SP into the cellar. If you need an example for the latter - have a look at the PPH thread and check out how keen posters have been for this listing. Early days yet, but turkeys and Christmas spring to mind ... ;)

[winner69]

Anybody able to shed some light on the NBR Shoeshine story today , behind a paywall so I haven't been able to read it . "Is Trilogy burning out ?"

For e state of your good health don't bother go and seek it out (I went and bought a paper version) - you'll probably disagree with most of the article except for the quotes from the PIE man and the conclusion that TIL might come out smelling of roses (or something like that)

In saying that it reinforces some of the concerns I have around my forecasts (probably far too bullish).

But then that doesn't really matter - hey, its going on the ASX this week and everybody will want a piece of the action and $5 beckons in no time

[Leftfield]

For e state of your good health don't bother go and seek it out (I went and bought a paper version) - you'll probably disagree with most of the article except for the quotes from the PIE man and the conclusion that TIL might come out smelling of roses (or something like that)

In saying that it reinforces some of the concerns I have around my forecasts (probably far too bullish).

But then that doesn't really matter - hey, its going on the ASX this week and everybody will want a piece of the action and $5 beckons in no time

The article points out that TIL is trading at 20 x price earnings, and that the Business Bakery investors have done well pulling out $30 mill of their investment leaving a remaining 33% holding worth $98 mill and says it is good to have a healthy cynicism about the alignment of (these) shareholder interests. It concludes "investors would do best not to let heady wafts of sweet pea and jasmine dull their senses.....but for now the company still smells sweet."

Disc - A past holder, watching from the side lines at the moment.

[winner69]

Probably Business Bakery boys waiting for the big takeover offer

Hope it comes sooner than later

[winner69]

In that NBR article one investment manager reckons Trilogy have given 'scant' financial information about the Chile acquisition. Mainly in the context that their $8m price valued that business at $32m which isn't that much less than Trilogy tangibles of about $40m

[boysy]

Article does seem to paint a one sided story no mentionof shoring up supply of rose hip oil being the overriding reason for the transaction which was funded 75% by script. BWX powering back to all time highs the question will need to be asked is BWX overproced or TIL underpriced compared to its closest peer ( taking aside differences in the business). Would be good to hear TIL have underplayed the revenue card going forward in November but we shall all see. Continuing to buy at these levels.

[stoploss]

Article does seem to paint a one sided story no mentionof shoring up supply of rose hip oil being the overriding reason for the transaction which was funded 75% by script. BWX powering back to all time highs the question will need to be asked is BWX overproced or TIL underpriced compared to its closest peer ( taking aside differences in the business). Would be good to hear TIL have underplayed the revenue card going forward in November but we shall all see. Continuing to buy at these levels.

"ballsiest move I ever saw " buying in a downtrend . Looks like plenty of volume still going into the bid, 70,000 through @ 3.875 .

[winner69]

Article does seem to paint a one sided story no mentionof shoring up supply of rose hip oil being the overriding reason for the transaction which was funded 75% by script. BWX powering back to all time highs the question will need to be asked is BWX overproced or TIL underpriced compared to its closest peer ( taking aside differences in the business). Would be good to hear TIL have underplayed the revenue card going forward in November but we shall all see. Continuing to buy at these levels.

Just shows Benjamin's investing approach is different to yours, and probably mine.

Every man to his own I spose

Article did mention shoring up supply - think Benjamin's was concerned about was there was no disclosure as to what was in it financially for Trilogy, except $8m of nebulous strategic value.

We still believe though eh boysy

[trader_jackson]

The only thing keeping this stock from diving further is the fact it is illiquid and there are clearly some very reluctant sellers (and even more reluctant buyers to raise their buy price!)... that listing on the ASX is going to improve liquidity, right? hmmm... (or have I got this wrong part wrong?)

[boysy]

For every buyer there is a seller trader Jackson think your not telling the entire truth. Over $500k worth of shares traded hands today alone, let's see how the asx listing go before writing it off yeah ?

[couta1]

The only thing keeping this stock from diving further is the fact it is illiquid and there are clearly some very reluctant sellers (and even more reluctant buyers to raise their buy price!)... that listing on the ASX is going to improve liquidity, right? hmmm... (or have I got this wrong part wrong?) That's not entirely true, if sellers were that keen the price would drop accordingly(Providing liquidity) plenty of crafty buyers out there trying to get a bargin, trading in a 3c range for the day(On market) is hardly a dive. Upon the ASX listing either BWX is going to take a healthy correction or Trilogy is going to move toward it's current price, I'm picking the latter. Disc-Bought today at $3.88.

[trader_jackson]

Yes, the ASX listing (and its impacts on either TIL and/or BWX) will be interesting.

(as I don't keep a very close eye on TIL and certainly not BWX, I'll have to assuming they are near the same in terms of growth levels, balance sheet strength, financial performance etc, like you have implied)

[muss1]

Yes, the ASX listing (and its impacts on either TIL and/or BWX) will be interesting.

(as I don't keep a very close eye on TIL and certainly not BWX, I'll have to assuming they are near the same in terms of growth levels, balance sheet strength, financial performance etc, like you have implied)

If you don't keep a very close eye on TIL it begs the question how you can offer such insightful comments about the performance of the company and its share price. For what reasons should it dive further if there was more liquidity?

Also, in my experience more liquidity means less significant fluctuation of the share price, but that's beside the point.

[stoploss]

That's not entirely true, if sellers were that keen the price would drop accordingly(Providing liquidity) plenty of crafty buyers out there trying to get a bargin, trading in a 3c range for the day(On market) is hardly a dive. Upon the ASX listing either BWX is going to take a healthy correction or Trilogy is going to move toward it's current price, I'm picking the latter. Disc-Bought today at $3.88.
Couta ever considered they might both go down ?

[couta1]

Couta ever considered they might both go down ? The tallest timber gets chopped first, anyway I'll take a punt.

[sb9]

https://nzx.com/companies/TIL/announcements/291007

Well, there you've it some of recent off-market transactions by US based mutual fund's (Grandeur Peak) accumulation in the recent past..

[Well Endowed]

Good to get some new blood on-board

http://www.grandeurpeakglobal.com/

[NZSilver]

I took the opportunity to top up with a few more yesterday before ASX listing.

[percy]

Good to get some new blood on-board

http://www.grandeurpeakglobal.com/

Certainly is.

[stoploss]

That's not entirely true, if sellers were that keen the price would drop accordingly(Providing liquidity) plenty of crafty buyers out there trying to get a bargin, trading in a 3c range for the day(On market) is hardly a dive. Upon the ASX listing either BWX is going to take a healthy correction or Trilogy is going to move toward it's current price, I'm picking the latter. Disc-Bought today at $3.88.

Certainly a lot keener today -12 while BWX still positive . Offer side stacking up , very few bids loaded in the system .

[boysy]

Not a great day but the loss was lowered at the end of the day following the market down 1.3%. Variance to BWX continues to widen let's see how the aussies are feeling this Friday.

[stoploss]

Not a great day but the loss was lowered at the end of the day following the market down 1.3%. Variance to BWX continues to widen let's see how the aussies are feeling this Friday.

Hope that truck isn't going over its weight limit :)

[sb9]

Not a great day but the loss was lowered at the end of the day following the market down 1.3%. Variance to BWX continues to widen let's see how the aussies are feeling this Friday.

Certainly seems as though one or two keen sellers kept the offers coming at all bids...

[trader_jackson]

Not a great day but the loss was lowered at the end of the day following the market down 1.3%. Variance to BWX continues to widen let's see how the aussies are feeling this Friday.

In TIL's defense (yes... surprise, surprise) the entire NZX was "not to flash" today so I wouldn't be taking to much from today's decrease, although I did note there were a few stocks with a sudden jump at the end (HBL :t_up:, and TIL, to an extent)

Also interesting that the lack of buyers continues (although, again, not taking to much from buy/sell orders)

Friday is certainly shaping up to be interesting... as boysy points out the variance to BMX continues... has anyone considered the thought that maybe the Aussies like BWX's growth prospectus and financial health more? (or at least believe this, and hence happy to pay a higher, although not terribly higher, premium?)

You'd think if it was as simple as a re-rating there'd be lots of Aussie institutions (and, well, everyone) buying in now, in anticipation of a big pop this Friday ... must be missing something regarding this whole ASX listing

[Blendy]

HI all, this might be a dumb question, so apologies in advance. How does the ASX listing work - is this a dual listing where somehow the trading activity in both Australia and NZ are linked so that simultaneous trades occur on both markets, and the currency is adjusted accordingly all live?

[boysy]

It's clear one institution is selling out while another appears to be buying in. Will be interesting to see if additional liquidity will enable the big seller to finish dumping shares in the short term, and if Aussie institutions will now buy in following the asx listing (I believe the co or pie funds mentioned some Aussie investors were keen to buy in but were limited as the company was not listed on the asx). All in all quite a fall of late but the metrics are tempting and have fallen back to realistic valuations assuming next to no growth over the short term.

[BlackPeter]

HI all, this might be a dumb question, so apologies in advance. How does the ASX listing work - is this a dual listing where somehow the trading activity in both Australia and NZ are linked so that simultaneous trades occur on both markets, and the currency is adjusted accordingly all live?

Sorry - no synchronised trading with simultaneous currency exchange :)

These are two separate independent markets - however the shares can be transferred (i.e. you can transfer dual-listed shares from the NZX to the ASX or vis-versa).

And this is basically the mechanism to keep the trading in sync. While the process to transfer these shares is somewhat tedious for retail investors (though it is possible) ... it does pay for organisations specialising in arbitrage.

If they discover a material difference price difference, they might buy the cheaper stock and short the dearer stock in the other stock exchange. They can than close these positions by transferring the shares across the ditch ...

[winner69]

In TIL's defense (yes... surprise, surprise) the entire NZX was "not to flash" today so I wouldn't be taking to much from today's decrease, although I did note there were a few stocks with a sudden jump at the end (HBL :t_up:, and TIL, to an extent)

Also interesting that the lack of buyers continues (although, again, not taking to much from buy/sell orders)

Friday is certainly shaping up to be interesting... as boysy points out the variance to BMX continues... has anyone considered the thought that maybe the Aussies like BWX's growth prospectus and financial health more? (or at least believe this, and hence happy to pay a higher, although not terribly higher, premium?)

You'd think if it was as simple as a re-rating there'd be lots of Aussie institutions (and, well, everyone) buying in now, in anticipation of a big pop this Friday ... must be missing something regarding this whole ASX listing


Growth comments - maybe aussies see BMX growth as 'real' ...that fund manager who wouldn't buy TIL said that their growth was being buoyed by acquisition and that underlying skincare/candles was less spectacular

Never mind Aussies will wake up on Friday

[boysy]

Interesting to note BWX provided FY ebitda guidance of $26m today

http://hotcopper.com.au/documentdownload?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvFDZpiw rOuhKhkeh76MdNT7rIHo4TWxRvPFHhlFA%3D

TIL fy2017 guidance was ebitda of 19-21m to put into perspective.

[winner69]

Interesting to note BWX provided FY ebitda guidance of $26m today

http://hotcopper.com.au/documentdownload?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvFDZpiw rOuhKhkeh76MdNT7rIHo4TWxRvPFHhlFA%3D

TIL fy2017 guidance was ebitda of 19-21m to put into perspective.

The 30% growth number they said at results time. Didn't put the jitters into shareholders at the ASM like Trilogy did.

TIL at $21m is +30% as well .....although some would say that a chunk of that growth comes from full year of CS

Whatever - he valuation gap has got wider of late

Bring on next week

[trader_jackson]

Interesting to note BWX provided FY ebitda guidance of $26m today

http://hotcopper.com.au/documentdownload?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvFDZpiw rOuhKhkeh76MdNT7rIHo4TWxRvPFHhlFA%3D

TIL fy2017 guidance was ebitda of 19-21m to put into perspective.

Maybe this explained the reason why BWX increased?

Just thought I'd have a look at a few things to try understand why BWX is priced at a higher PE...
(resource: 4traders for estimates and Financial results annoucement presentation for everything else)

EBITA
Company / 2015A / 2016A / 2017E / 2018E
TIL / 5.3m / 16.3m / 21.3m / 26.4m
BWX / 14.8m / 19.2m / 26.3m / 32.0m

EPS
Company / 2015A / 2016A
TIL / 7c / 15c
BWX / n/a / 14.1c

Gross Margin %
Company / 2015A / 2016A
TIL / 62.2 / 53.9
BWX / 56.8 / 61.9

Operating Cash Flow
Company / 2015A / 2016A
TIL / 4.7m / 5.7m
BWX / (1.8m) / 10.1m

Interest bearing liabilities (for TIL) / Loans and borrowings (for BWX) - (ie loans both current and non current combined)
Company / 2015A / 2016A
TIL / 1.6m / 35.2m
BWX / 27.1m / 7.0m

[RupertBear]

Sorry - no synchronised trading with simultaneous currency exchange :)

These are two separate independent markets - however the shares can be transferred (i.e. you can transfer dual-listed shares from the NZX to the ASX or vis-versa).

And this is basically the mechanism to keep the trading in sync. While the process to transfer these shares is somewhat tedious for retail investors (though it is possible) ... it does pay for organisations specialising in arbitrage.

If they discover a material difference price difference, they might buy the cheaper stock and short the dearer stock in the other stock exchange. They can than close these positions by transferring the shares across the ditch ...

I apologise in advance for my newbie ignorance but if they are two indepenent markets how does Trilogy listing on the ASX potentially benefit holders on the NZX which seems to be what people are hoping for?

[BlackPeter]

I apologise in advance for my newbie ignorance but if they are two indepenent markets how does Trilogy listing on the ASX potentially benefit holders on the NZX which seems to be what people are hoping for?

Good question, though I explained already why the price on the NZX and the ASX is unlikely to be widely diverging ... just check out my post above (arbitrage).

The other question is - why do people hope that Australia values TIL higher than we do?

I don't know ... but apparently there is a comparable company which is currently dearer. Given that markets tend to compare is it likely that either the other company becomes cheaper - or TIL moves up in price.

Historically seen - there are a number of NZ companies who listed as well on the ASX (particularly if they needed more cash). Some of them went up in price, some of them went down and for some it didn't make a difference. No guarantee in my view that TIL will go up.

[winner69]

Whose going to provide the liquidity for the AsX?

[winner69]

Interesting to note BWX provided FY ebitda guidance of $26m today

http://hotcopper.com.au/documentdownload?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvFDZpiw rOuhKhkeh76MdNT7rIHo4TWxRvPFHhlFA%3D

TIL fy2017 guidance was ebitda of 19-21m to put into perspective.

Hope you doing your bit in touting TIL on hotcopper mate

Mind you not much on the BWX thread

Get them excited and we will be right

[winner69]

Be a bugger if it does a PPH when dual listed

More like MHJ I hope

[Blendy]

Good question, though I explained already why the price on the NZX and the ASX is unlikely to be widely diverging ... just check out my post above (arbitrage).

The other question is - why do people hope that Australia values TIL higher than we do?

I don't know ... but apparently there is a comparable company which is currently dearer. Given that markets tend to compare is it likely that either the other company becomes cheaper - or TIL moves up in price.

Historically seen - there are a number of NZ companies who listed as well on the ASX (particularly if they needed more cash). Some of them went up in price, some of them went down and for some it didn't make a difference. No guarantee in my view that TIL will go up.

Thank you for your very good summary of this situation, and your answer to my question about the dual listing. Most helpful :)

[BlackPeter]

... just happened to notice that TIL broke the MA200, which is not necessarily seen as an advantage ;).

I certainly hope for TIL share holders that the ASX listing will do the trick ... but I wouldn't bet the farm on it.

Discl: not holding;

[percy]

I sold the self given "bonus" shares we held yesterday,as we need cash to help one of the daughters.
Been a great investment.
Thank you Noodles for getting me in at $1.05 May last year.

[Hectorplains]

It'd be worth a glance at PAY - recent CR and Aust listing - SP gone into negative overdrive. My bet, FWIW, same for TIL.

[boysy]

Does pay have a proxy or similar company on the asx. Let's see how it goes down tomorrow noting continued upward movement in BWX shows the aussies love the natural skincare story

[muss1]

OK, here's the summary from my USA Whole Foods Market investigation.

Stores visited - 6. Each store had a range of Trilogy products. I would estimate 10-15 per store. Towards the end of the trip I saw the new packaging as mentioned earlier which is a good thing in my eyes.

I talked to an employee in one store. She was the sales person in the skincare etc department. She personally recommends a few of the Trilogy products over other brands. However, she noted educating people and getting them to try the products was difficult. Her experience with the products was very good and she uses them. The products don't exactly fly off the shelf, but a few of them sell well especially when on sale (which I gather is quite regularly - maybe not Briscoes scale).

Hopefully that's of some use

[trader_jackson]

Does pay have a proxy or similar company on the asx. Let's see how it goes down tomorrow noting continued upward movement in BWX shows the aussies love the natural skincare story

Yes will be most interesting, but given my earlier post (which I got essentially no responses... despite presenting a variety of facts and forecasts - post 1633), I am not sure TIL can be compared to BWX... maybe purely percentage increases in overall growth/revenue wise... but how this growth is being driven are very very different things... TIL is seeing skyrocketing borrowings, barely increasing operating cash flows and dramatically decreasing gross profit margins (muss1 if this continues, maybe there be more 'briscoe style' sales on TIL's products!)... while BWX, as shown, is the complete opposite.

Once you look beyond the face, it would seem to me TIL and BWX are not comparable given recent trends... but you guys can draw your own conclusions as you probably follow both alot closer than I do (I just did a quick year on year comparison on post 1633 and after seeing some key numbers and differences there was no need for me to analyse further)

[muss1]

Yes will be most interesting, but given my earlier post (which I got essentially no responses... despite presenting a variety of facts and forecasts - post 1633), I am not sure TIL can be compared to BWX... maybe purely percentage increases in overall growth/revenue wise... but how this growth is being driven are very very different things... TIL is seeing skyrocketing borrowings, barely increasing operating cash flows and dramatically decreasing gross profit margins (muss1 if this continues, maybe there be more 'briscoe style' sales on TIL's products!)... while BWX, as shown, is the complete opposite.

Once you look beyond the face, it would seem to me TIL and BWX are not comparable given recent trends... but you guys can draw your own conclusions.
(I also note the continued recent decreases in TIL's share price, beyond the general market decrease)

TJ, just to clarify one of your comments. TIL have most likely paid the borrowing off now. TIL borrowed 35m to purchase CS Co when the share price was around 1.30. They then did the recent capital raise at 3.70 to effectively pay off that loan. A very shrewd move recognising how undervalued the company was back then.

PAY has gone down, but so have a lot of tech plays. I would argue it's just unfortunate timing and nothing to do with the ASX listing

[muss1]

Top 20 list is up on the ASX.

Last disclosure from Pie - 6.3m shares. Two nominees now have 7m shares. I assume one is Pie and the other is..?

Am I right of have I missed something... either way, two funds now own 10% each which shows some confidence.

It would appear the funds participating in the capital raising have increased their stakes

[LAC]

Visited a few pharmacies and health stores in Melbourne over the weekend and have to admit, BWX products seem to have much much much better shelf and store locations. Very easy to find as they have prime location and have better shelf size. Trilogy is usually hard to find (not liking the new labels personally), I am yet to see any Ecoya products in Pharmacies but did see Goodness.

[boysy]

Just goes to show you need to do research instead of simply relying on the financial accounts. TILs lower profit margin being driven by the greater proportion of revenue coming from the distribution business. Good pick up re the top twenty muss.

[sb9]

Thanks for updates muss, informative as always.

I expect not much fireworks from ASX listing from get go, might take few days to re rate and next month 1st Half results and guidance will set course for medium term.

[boysy]

413 equivalent on the asx at 3.90 aud

[sb9]

Tried to add TIL.ASX to my watch list, however it comes with an old stock code MPA history which has this ticker code previously by the looks.

Anyone else tried, by the way I use ASB Sec.

[winner69]

413 equivalent on the asx at 3.90 aud


Awesome - on it's way to $5 in no time at all

[sb9]

413 equivalent on the asx at 3.90 aud

382 on NZX still though, bit of an arbitrage opportunity perhaps....

[winner69]

382 on NZX still though, bit of an arbitrage opportunity perhaps....

Give it a go

[sb9]

Give it a go

Out of funds..otherwise surely...

[muss1]

8% arbitrage... what's all that about efficient markets?

Would imply TIL is still under the radar then...

[winner69]

413 equivalent on the asx at 3.90 aud

Wonder which broker has been 'shunting' some shares over to the ASX to get things rolling (I think 'shunting' is what they call it)

Always a bit cynical as to how all this operates - but heck if it takes TIL to $5 whose to complain

[boysy]

Up to 392 on the asx

[sb9]

8% arbitrage... what's all that about efficient markets?

Would imply TIL is still under the radar then...

Yeah, whatever it is someone took the opportunity and made good coin me thinks.

By the way called ASB Sec about not being able to see TIL.ASX trade details, their answer 'we've no idea, try Monday', very nice...

[winner69]

Up to 392 on the asx

Did reach 396 mate

Good stuff eh

[ShouldHaveHeld]

Any one on ASB seeing this?
TIL showing as MPA for ASX listing

[boysy]

While showing MPA this is TIL on the asx as of today

[sb9]

VWAP on ASX at 392 and last order filled in at 388, yet NZX price is 382...tale of two cities??

[winner69]

VWAP on ASX at 392 and last order filled in at 388, yet NZX price is 382...tale of two cities??

Maybe a bit surreptitious buying at the opening to get the excitment levels up

[boysy]

Are us kiwis mugs or the storey hadn't leaked out ?

[sb9]

Are us kiwis mugs or the storey hadn't leaked out ?

Well thrice the volume on ASX compared to NZX so far, you know who wants more....

[sb9]

Awesome - on it's way to $5 in no time at all

Not sure about $5 yet, might break $4 though today...

[muss1]

So let me get this straight... someone has to change their shares to be registered on ASX before they can be traded? Over time more shares will be made available on the ASX due to brokers etc moving them across and offering them?

So the arbitrage opportunity can only be taken advantage of currently if one can short/sell shares on the ASX (and buy them back on the NZX). The opportunity to do this would be very limited at this stage due to limited shares being registered on ASX...

Only spitballing here, I don't know the mechanics of all this. Can anyone correct me?

[winner69]

BWX doing their best in reducing the value gap today

[winner69]

So let me get this straight... someone has to change their shares to be registered on ASX before they can be traded? Over time more shares will be made available on the ASX due to brokers etc moving them across and offering them?

So the arbitrage opportunity can only be taken advantage of currently if one can short/sell shares on the ASX (and buy them back on the NZX). The opportunity to do this would be very limited at this stage due to limited shares being registered on ASX...

Only spitballing here, I don't know the mechanics of all this. Can anyone correct me?


Brokers have a mechanism / process for moving shares back and forth across the Tasman to balance supply and demand (someone once mentioned the term 'shunting')

Maybe an expert can tell us how

[muss1]

Brokers have a mechanism / process for moving shares back and forth across the Tasman to balance supply and demand (someone once mentioned the term 'shunting')

Maybe an expert can tell us how

Ah so that is more of an instantaneous transfer? So that makes the arbitrage opportunity somewhat surprising

[winner69]

ASX spread is 357/388 ......hmmm

Maybe us not that stupid

[winner69]

Ah so that is more of an instantaneous transfer? So that makes the arbitrage opportunity somewhat surprising

Not exactly sure muss

[winner69]

Bit of an anti-climax today after the initial trades made to build a bit of momentum

Didn't appear to be any real demand, only in the 350's

It'll settle down next week .......and then take off (hopefully)

No worries

[kiora]

Ah so that is more of an instantaneous transfer? So that makes the arbitrage opportunity somewhat surprising

Not instantaneous but only takes a few days.Form can be used for any dual listed holdings
https://cda.computershare.com/Content/983bd626-abb7-4fcd-a539-e98e7664df8d

[trader_jackson]

For every buyer there is a seller trader Jackson think your not telling the entire truth. Over $500k worth of shares traded hands today alone, let's see how the asx listing go before writing it off yeah ?

The big day (?) has come and gone...
ASX TIL finished off at $3.88, arguable more value than the NZX TIL, but not by much...volume pretty low as well (with no bids in the system for anything above $3.57....although no sellers so this is good at least?), not alot of pop bang smash for a company that is apparently very comparable to 'attractive' $472 million dollar BWX Limited... one of the key attractions of listing on ASX being that it will "will increase liquidity"... I'm not sure 263k being traded on the big listing day is a good result/indicator or not...

winner69, the typically smart Aussies, who have a much more complex and larger share market (and the increased investors, institutions, research etc) than us, have clearly just missed this "fantastic opportunity" despite the hype and news articles (at least in NZ...)... and will be jumping in next couple weeks and push that stock to $5 right?

[boysy]

Trader Jackson what is your angle here ? you seem mighty keen to comment on a share you know next to nothing about as evidenced by your recent posts (i.e. Not understanding the trilogy business - TIL/CS company/ecoya, not understanding the recent payment of debt or how TIL compares with BWX outside of a spreadsheet). Weren't you guessing it was set to tank on open, let's see how Aussie trading takes place next week before passing too much judgement.

[Snow Leopard]

So the great hope of the Trilogy rampers fizzled out...

But wait there is next week...


One has to wonder who does actually understand the company.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[winner69]

Not much action on ASX so far today

The offer of 357 still there - that's it

No worries - the action will come soon ...and it'll be good un

[Snow Leopard]

So assorted sources have Trilogy International trading under the code of MPA and even the name Marine Produce Australia.

MPA delisted from the ASX at the end of day on 22-Dec-2010

However before the 6-Dec-2004 MPA was

Tiger International Limited - TIL.

(and the story goes back further and becomes almost mythical.)

Seems my paw is everywhere :scared:.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[winner69]

About 30,000 on the bid side at 288-357

Nobody seems keen on getting this thing moving ....poor effort by Trilogy's advisers / brokers

But it does need a good story to stir the punters up

Hope TIL doesn't turn into a unwanted mutt on the ASX

[stoploss]

About 30,000 on the bid side at 288-357

Nobody seems keen on getting this thing moving ....poor effort by Trilogy's advisers / brokers

But it does need a good story to stir the punters up

Hope TIL doesn't turn into a unwanted mutt on the ASX

Bit of a waste of cash and extra compliance if it ends up a mutt ....., surely they should have maybe appointed a market maker in the stock ?
All those funds that want to buy in now it's ASX listed should be demanding such from their brokers ...

[winner69]

Bit of a waste of cash and extra compliance if it ends up a mutt ....., surely they should have maybe appointed a market maker in the stock ?
All those funds that want to buy in now it's ASX listed should be demanding such from their brokers ...

Poor show eh

Dusappointing

[muss1]

Bizarre.

I still can't see the ASX listing on ANZ trading. I gather this is similar to the ASB issue that was noted on Friday. Could this be part of the problem?

[trader_jackson]

Trader Jackson what is your angle here ? you seem mighty keen to comment on a share you know next to nothing about as evidenced by your recent posts (i.e. Not understanding the trilogy business - TIL/CS company/ecoya, not understanding the recent payment of debt or how TIL compares with BWX outside of a spreadsheet). Weren't you guessing it was set to tank on open, let's see how Aussie trading takes place next week before passing too much judgement.

No I never implied it would tank on the open, just believed there was a false hope that all the Aussie institutions would revalue TIL to similar ratios as BWX, and thus dramatically push up the price...like it was implied on here... but we'll give it some time (although you would have thought the smart money would be one of the first to move on TIL seeing it is an apparent bargain on the ASX currently [?])

Just mentioned, like I noted just after the AGM, that the price was coming down to what I believe was a 'more realistic' price, like now, I was 'told off' for mentioning such things (high $3 is still a way off where I think it should be, given the nearly 0 barriers to entry, barely increasing cash flows, execution risk just to name a few [I recall pumpkin patch was a former darling... although, yes, quite different])

My apologies if I misunderstood their debt arrangements, just read the headline figure off their annual report, although I am not sure how this explains their barely increasing operating cash flow (vs BWX's skyrocketing operating cash flow)... It was also mentioned that a dramatic decrease in gross margin was because of an increasing portion of distribution business, which is understandable... so if they keep driving revenue growth from increasing the portion (of revenue) coming from distribution business, TILs gross margin will continue to drop near double digit figures (while BWX increases theirs?)

We've sorted out the debt, next step is to see why TIL's operating cash flow increased by just a fraction of BWX's increase, and how TIL plan to protect (if not increase) their gross margin, to get back to 'the comparable' BWX. Would be also nice if ASX or who ever updated their systems to reflect TILs new listing properly on the ASX

[winner69]

Hey t_j - you said I was 'told off' for mentioning such things (high $3 is still a way off where I think it should be, given the nearly 0 barriers to entry

Want to risk another 'telling off' by sharing what it should be?

[trader_jackson]

Hey t_j - you said I was 'told off' for mentioning such things (high $3 is still a way off where I think it should be, given the nearly 0 barriers to entry

Want to risk another 'telling off' by sharing what it should be?

For the record, on the 22nd of September:


Sellers rushing in, buyers dropping out... all those institutions will be put off by this 18% or so drop in a couple minutes... next few days will be interesting, if it gets down to something more realistic, say $3, I could be tempted ;)

Next few days were interesting, showed a bounce back... followed by a steady decline (with a few bumps) to around where we were on forecast day (with that decline in share price being quite a bit more than the NZX 50 index decline)

If I was held at gun point, and had to put a number on it, lets just say it would be to the much lower end of $3, although with several companies on the NZX still trading at elevated levels, I suppose TIL is likely to as well.
Product is good, but: alot of execution risk, no barriers to entry, and the financials are 'interesting'
I am not saying TIL will collaspe and burn, just that the current price is taking into account a fair amount less risk that I believe it should

I think that is enough from me on TIL for now, don't want to bring the party down anymore (recent share price performance has done this enough ;))
Will concentrate more on my robust, well positioned, 'portfolio staples' (with great operating cash flows, high(er) barriers to entry, along side a great product offering... being HBL and ARV for starters ;))

Disclosure: the above are my views, and yes, I am known to be wrong, occasionally...;)

[winner69]

For the record, on the 22nd of September:



Next few days were interesting, showed a bounce back... followed by a steady decline (with a few bumps) to around where we were on forecast day (with that decline in share price being quite a bit more than the NZX 50 index decline)

If I was held at gun point, and had to put a number on it, lets just say it would be to the much lower end of $3, although with several companies on the NZX still trading at elevated levels, I suppose TIL is likely to as well.
Product is good, but: alot of execution risk, no barriers to entry, and the financials are 'interesting'
I am not saying TIL will collaspe and burn, just that the current price is taking into account a fair amount less risk that I believe it should

I think that is enough from me on TIL for now, don't want to bring the party down anymore (recent share price performance has done this enough ;))
Will concentrate more on my robust, well positioned, 'portfolio staples' (with great operating cash flows, high(er) barriers to entry, along side a great product offering... being HBL and ARV for starters ;))

Disclosure: the above are my views, and yes, I am known to be wrong, occasionally...;)

Thanks mate. Yes you did post that on the day the market completely over reacted. Spooky it is down at that low again

You also mentioned TIL barely increasing operating cash flow vs BWX's skyrocketing operating cash flow. Interestingly both TIL and BWX have similar cash conversion rates (FCF (adjusted for interest and tax) /EBIT} of just under 60%. You might be asked to apologise again ha ha.

Anyway keep up the good work - plenty of analysis of the PEB accounts soon eh

[muss1]

For the record, on the 22nd of September:



Next few days were interesting, showed a bounce back... followed by a steady decline (with a few bumps) to around where we were on forecast day (with that decline in share price being quite a bit more than the NZX 50 index decline)

If I was held at gun point, and had to put a number on it, lets just say it would be to the much lower end of $3, although with several companies on the NZX still trading at elevated levels, I suppose TIL is likely to as well.
Product is good, but: alot of execution risk, no barriers to entry, and the financials are 'interesting'
I am not saying TIL will collaspe and burn, just that the current price is taking into account a fair amount less risk that I believe it should

I think that is enough from me on TIL for now, don't want to bring the party down anymore (recent share price performance has done this enough ;))
Will concentrate more on my robust, well positioned, 'portfolio staples' (with great operating cash flows, high(er) barriers to entry, along side a great product offering... being HBL and ARV for starters ;))

Disclosure: the above are my views, and yes, I am known to be wrong, occasionally...;)

Thanks for sharing and elaborating on your thoughts.

IMO, $3 is factoring in no future (substantial) growth beyond this year. That is certainly possible, but on the balance of probability it would seem fair to factor in some growth. They have a strong brand, industry tailwinds, are vertically integrated and have a number of overseas markets in their infancy. Only one needs to be moderately successful for significant earnings growth.

So given the above factors I think the risk vs reward equation is favouring the upside.

If earnings flatten off then the SP might round off around $3. If they sell a few products in the USA, UK, Asia or a few more in Aus then an SP of $5+ (I've limited it to 5 so I don't get accused of unrelastic ramping) is entirely possible. I like the equation from here.

I don't know anything about HBL, but I do know what banks are capable of achieving while they 'manage' their risks. Don't forget their perceived 'robustness' is only as good as their 'risk models'... Anyway that's just an example of how we perceive risk differently. I'm more comfortable with TIL's risks than I am with a bank's.

[co0p]

In one of the result announcements for FY16 it was mentioned that the increase in working capital was due to an increase in inventory and trade receivables relating to the CS&co acquisition. This probably explains the small operating cashflow increase.

[winner69]

Been quiet on the Western Front the last couple of days

Hope the artillery starts firing up today

At home share price on fire - good sign

We'm get to $5 soon

[boysy]

Interesting arbitrage play buy on the nzx at $3.90 and sell on the asx for AUD3.80 ($4.05 kiwi)

[winner69]

Starting to look more promising on the ASX

We'll get there

[stoploss]

That's not entirely true, if sellers were that keen the price would drop accordingly(Providing liquidity) plenty of crafty buyers out there trying to get a bargin, trading in a 3c range for the day(On market) is hardly a dive. Upon the ASX listing either BWX is going to take a healthy correction or Trilogy is going to move toward it's current price, I'm picking the latter. Disc-Bought today at $3.88.

There you go Couta you can apparently buy @ 3.90 and sell at $ 4.05 , that's an AIR Divvy in one trade !!!

[couta1]

There you go Couta you can apparently buy @ 3.90 and sell at $ 4.05 , that's an AIR Divvy in one trade !!! Great in theory but by the time your transfer form is processed and movement in the exchange rate is factored in, unlikely to be worth the hassle. Pretty thin trading on the ASX, after a small order at $3.80, next stop is $3.56 so who knows where it will be in a few days.

[boysy]

Can't see the NZD reaching parity in the time it would take (a few days) to transfer ownwrship from the NZX to the ASX. Would be good to see some of the imago interest or liquidity appearing on the ASX which was mentioned as the reason for dual listing. Don't think it helps TIL still being listed as MPA on the asx via ASB securities however ....

[LAC]

Hi guys, what is TIL trading as on the ASX?

[muss1]

Can now see TIL.ASX on ANZ for what it's worth. Fewer orders than in the NZX still

[LAC]

Can now see TIL.ASX on ANZ for what it's worth. Fewer orders than in the NZX still
Yet to see it on ASB....

[couta1]

Yet to see it on ASB.... Call them and ask them to fix it like I did with ANZ an hour ago.:cool:

[winner69]

Another trade on ASX

Good stuff

[sb9]

Call them and ask them to fix it like I did with ANZ an hour ago.:cool:

I did on Friday itself, the guy on the other end said he couldn't.

The whole process has been pretty deplorable really not sure its the fault of NZX or ASX, the mere fact that they didn't check an existing code TIL has history of trading associated with it and one would assume they clear out all that and populate TIL as new code on ASX before listing there.

By the way, ASB sec still comes with MPA as TIL trading figures...appalling!!!

[couta1]

I did on Friday itself, the guy on the other end said he couldn't.

The whole process has been pretty deplorable really not sure its the fault of NZX or ASX, the mere fact that they didn't check an existing code TIL has history of trading associated with it and one would assume they clear out all that and populate TIL as new code on ASX before listing there.

By the way, ASB sec still comes with MPA as TIL trading figures...appalling!!! Another reason I use ANZ, they tend to sort things out fast in my experience once a problem is reported.

[winner69]

I did on Friday itself, the guy on the other end said he couldn't.

The whole process has been pretty deplorable really not sure its the fault of NZX or ASX, the mere fact that they didn't check an existing code TIL has history of trading associated with it and one would assume they clear out all that and populate TIL as new code on ASX before listing there.

By the way, ASB sec still comes with MPA as TIL trading figures...appalling!!!

ASX itself not having any issues - even had their Welcome to Trilogy sign up the other day

Just our local brokers having issues with their platforms - don't know about Aussie brokers- they the important ones

[winner69]

Another 800 sale on the ASX

We getting there

[winner69]

Another reason I use ANZ, they tend to sort things out fast in my experience once a problem is reported.

Still showing 16.5 as last sale when I look

Intraday chart looks OK

[stoploss]

Another 800 sale on the ASX

We getting there

yea but @ 3.81 which is down 7 on the day . Weren't these meant to go up upon listing on the ASX ???

[couta1]

yea but @ 3.81 which is down 7 on the day . Weren't these meant to go up upon listing on the ASX ??? Yep the tale of two cities, NZX volume of 136810 shares at a $3.8879 vwap, ASX volume 8628 so far at a $3.872 vwap with the next bid at $3.56 ($3.81 NZ) Aussies not exactly falling over themselves to smell the rosehips are they.

[sb9]

Another reason I use ANZ, they tend to sort things out fast in my experience once a problem is reported.

Seems okay from today on ASB sec, comes up with TIL.ASX...

[couta1]

Dual listing increasing liquidity, yeah right, no trades on either exchange so far today.

[stoploss]

That's not entirely true, if sellers were that keen the price would drop accordingly(Providing liquidity) plenty of crafty buyers out there trying to get a bargin, trading in a 3c range for the day(On market) is hardly a dive. Upon the ASX listing either BWX is going to take a healthy correction or Trilogy is going to move toward it's current price, I'm picking the latter. Disc-Bought today at $3.88.

Or they both stop trading ........

[couta1]

Or they both stop trading ........ Yep until fair value is worked out by both exchanges then the old mexican standoff occurs reducing liquidity further on an already illiquid stock,the opposite to what most of us thought would happen.

[winner69]

In one of the result announcements for FY16 it was mentioned that the increase in working capital was due to an increase in inventory and trade receivables relating to the CS&co acquisition. This probably explains the small operating cashflow increase.

Yes they pick up working capital from CS ......but the cost is picked up in Investing Cash Flow items and not Operating Cash Flows

Inventories went up $15m of which CS was $9.4m so for ongoing operations over the year they increased stock by $5.5m. Thats the number in Operating Cash Flows.

They probably say increased working capital ($6m odd) was needed to support sales growth - fair enough but uses a lot of cash.

[winner69]

Share price sinks to $3.80 - market cap $275m

If I had $275m spare cash I don't think I'd be buying Trilogy - esp with expected tax paid cash return of about $14m this financial year.

Jeez a 5% return - and all that risk.

[NZSilver]

Profitable company with huge potential for growth (+ a small div!), multiple markets, high margin product, ticks a majority of what I look for in an investment. It isn't going to happen overnight (thats what big wednesday is for) - patience

[kizame]

Profitable company with huge potential for growth (+ a small div!), multiple markets, high margin product, ticks a majority of what I look for in an investment. It isn't going to happen overnight (thats what big wednesday is for) - patience

Nicely said.

[boysy]

Sounds like someone might of sold out winner. Results not far away out by the end of November should exceed the limited expectations.

[stoploss]

Sounds like someone might of sold out winner. Results not far away out by the end of November should exceed the limited expectations.

Boysy you are always thinking the boom times not far off .

Firstly pinning your hopes on a bullish AGM update ( disappointed )
Then no worries , ASX listing- look what BWX is worth as soon as TIL list on the ASX the the sky's the limit ...
Now its the next set of results ........ How long you going to keep backing the truck up ... that's some deep pockets .

the share price performance form $ 5 to $ 3.80 is trying to tell you something .

[winner69]

Boysy you are always thinking the boom times not far off .

Firstly pinning your hopes on a bullish AGM update ( disappointed )
Then no worries , ASX listing- look what BWX is worth as soon as TIL list on the ASX the the sky's the limit ...
Now its the next set of results ........ How long you going to keep backing the truck up ... that's some deep pockets .

the share price performance form $ 5 to $ 3.80 is trying to tell you something .

t_j be a bit more reasonable mate

Just like you are a believer in PEB, boysy believes the TIL story. No harm in that is there

I sort of a believer (in TIL, not PEB ha ha) but recent events have dented the degree of believeness - may i'll get it all back when TIL says full year ebitda will be $25m plus

Let's wait and see

[stoploss]

t_j be a bit more reasonable mate

Just like you are a believer in PEB, boysy believes the TIL story. No harm in that is there

I sort of a believer (in TIL, not PEB ha ha) but recent events have dented the degree of believeness - may i'll get it all back when TIL says full year ebitda will be $25m plus

Let's wait and see

No harm in being a believer ( but plenty of people believed in PEB over $ 1.50 ), I personally believe a lot of comments are verging on a ramp ,like commenting on how many bids and every second trade that was going through . So would just like to see a bit of balance so as to caution any less sophisticated investors ....a selection of the posts I refer to below , where has the market gone after all of these ???

"Decent off market sales at 454 of $240k good to see buying interest at these levels following recent movements. Once again BWX is up seven cents to 566 with a MC of AUD$518m (NZD $545m). Makes you wonder what a listing on the ASX could bring with TIL having 20 million fewer shares on issue but a similar product line albeit TIL being a premium product and having greater diversity of earnings through CS company and ecoya."

"Sizeable 100k trade at 460 off market of course"

"And another 100k on close surely for turnover of nearly $1m"



"Quite right lets see where TIL sits in a months time brokers who cover BWX will be all over TIL like a rash. Seems like TIL is a few weeks behind BWX price action and recent recovery."


"continuing to buy at these levels still think the ASX listing will be a catalyst for a rerate when it will be compared to BWX (albeit TIL having better revenue and greater diversification than BWX). Still trading at circa 30% below BWX MC bring on the AGM"



"It will continue to tread water until the AGM in a few weeks. Still think TIL will suprise the market with the trading update happy to add to holding at this level."



"Think plenty of bagging candles has gone on here lets wait to see a trading update my bet gross margins is increasing for the ecoya products than anything else TIL. Like your >$6 plus valuation winner would be good for the market to catch up a bit but happy buying around the 4.50 level this week will seem very cheap in a few weeks me thinks."

[Balance]

No harm in being a believer ( but plenty of people believed in PEB over $ 1.50 ), I personally believe a lot of comments are verging on a ramp ,like commenting on how many bids and every second trade that was going through . So would just like to see a bit of balance so as to caution any less sophisticated investors ....a selection of the posts I refer to below , where has the market gone after all of these ???



TIL is similar to stocks like PEB, XRO, SCL, CVT, SEK etc which delivered/deliver spectacular gains for shareholders.

Inevitably, enthusiasm can spill over into commentaries which could be construed as ramping but in my mind, are actually more a reflection of excitement and optimism. The danger as always is that posters then lose objectivity and then, write to provide self reassurance.

It is really up to readers to be on guard and to maintain objectivity and balance.

There is a general market sell-off underway and high beta high performance stocks like TIL are going to get sold off more than other stocks.

I decided to trim back my shareholding as the ASX listing has not delivered the increased liquidity and coverage the listing was expected to achieve. Means that TIL is vulnerable to sell-offs by those sitting still on huge gains, plus there are now some shareholders with big lines of stock from the $50m share placement in June, plus placement of shares to Forestal casino.

TIL needs to maintain confidence as it is trading on high multiples. A successful ASX listing can help maintain that higher multiple.

Just my view.

PS. Ramping = done with intention to push up sp to sell = actionable as against the law

[boysy]

The joy of this forum is anyone can post their views whether positive or negative. It's good to have robust discussion one has to remember TIL is up strongly from where it was a year ago so many holders will be sitting on good profits at these levels.

It would appear as though TIL is tempering expectations for FY17 we will see in 4 weeks how the 1st Half trading has gone, as always they could very well be trading below the forecast but they do have a hostory of late of conservatism on the forecasting front.

[Balance]

The joy of this forum is anyone can post their views whether positive or negative. It's good to have robust discussion one has to remember TIL is up strongly from where it was a year ago so many holders will be sitting on good profits at these levels.

It would appear as though TIL is tempering expectations for FY17 we will see in 4 weeks how the 1st Half trading has gone, as always they could very well be trading below the forecast but they do have a hostory of late of conservatism on the forecasting front.

Agreed re conservatism.

Market is now getting concerned however that as Comvita has now admitted, the China government crackdown will impact upon sales, profits and future growth.

[Beagle]

Agreed re conservatism.

Market is now getting concerned however that as Comvita has now admitted, the China government crackdown will impact upon sales, profits and future growth.

Posted in CVT thread but relevant to this one as well I think
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/chinas-food-sector-big-boys-game-room-little-guys-paul-o-brien-%E4%BF%9D%E7%BD%97?trk=hp-feed-article-title-like

[boysy]

Worth noting that the key growth markets are Aussie and the US,TIL never were pinning hope on china alone like other players. THe biggie will be if TIL can retain or grow market share in the natural skincare market in NZ, AUS and US which is still growing at circa 20% pa. The market is currently not buying the storey ,will the results in 4 weeks prove this narrative is the question.

[sb9]

Yep until fair value is worked out by both exchanges then the old mexican standoff occurs reducing liquidity further on an already illiquid stock,the opposite to what most of us thought would happen.

Bit more volume trading today on NZX, hopefully this can ease the liquidity issues going forward and sp can find a good trading range...

[couta1]

Bit more volume trading today on NZX, hopefully this can ease the liquidity issues going forward and sp can find a good trading range... Sellers creating liquidity on the NZX but the ASX is as dead as a doornail, sold the rest of my recently purchased parcel for a loss and bought more A2 to bring my average price down(A neutral transaction from my viewpoint) I don't see the price going much over $3.80 until the update at which time the price could drop significantly if the market is disappointed with the update. Learnt another wee lesson about taking a punt on positive outcome of dual listings. Aside from that Til has been a positive experience overall for me, all the best to holders especially those who have recently purchased.

[winner69]

Bwx price drifting down - being rerated?

[winner69]

Worth noting that the key growth markets are Aussie and the US,TIL never were pinning hope on china alone like other players. THe biggie will be if TIL can retain or grow market share in the natural skincare market in NZ, AUS and US which is still growing at circa 20% pa. The market is currently not buying the storey ,will the results in 4 weeks prove this narrative is the question.

The market has bought the story - why does it trade at such lofty multiples?

[winner69]

Maybe the Aussie punters are getting excited over this Bod company just listed (BDA) instead of worrying about boring old NZ companies

In natural skincare and related products

[winner69]

Starting to get some action on the ASX

That's a good sign




(Won't mention which way the price is heading)

[BlackPeter]

Starting to get some action on the ASX

That's a good sign




(Won't mention which way the price is heading)

Ouch ... the falling knife gains momentum. Stay safe and keep your fingers out of the way ...:eek2:

[stoploss]

Couta ever considered they might both go down ?

Good to see you using a stoploss Couta ......

[Balance]

I decided to trim back my shareholding as the ASX listing has not delivered the increased liquidity and coverage the listing was expected to achieve. Means that TIL is vulnerable to sell-offs by those sitting still on huge gains, plus there are now some shareholders with big lines of stock from the $50m share placement in June, plus placement of shares to Forestal casino.


Vulnerable to sell-off.

Watch for some sizeable crossings before next sustained sp direction will be determined.

[BlackPeter]

Vulnerable to sell-off.

Watch for some sizeable crossings before next sustained sp direction will be determined.

... just curious ... given that we are already below MA50 as well as below MA200 - what other sizeable "crossings" do you expect?

[blobbles]

... just curious ... given that we are already below MA50 as well as below MA200 - what other sizeable "crossings" do you expect?

Yup, I got out seeing this and the tepid reaction to the ASX listing. Better to be holding cash at the moment methinks!

[Balance]

... just curious ... given that we are already below MA50 as well as below MA200 - what other sizeable "crossings" do you expect?

Falling on relatively small volumes - suggesting that there are big lines of stock on the offer. Until those lines are cleared, sp will continue to fall.

[winner69]

Well we have $5 lets just hope further good news is provided at the AGM to justify further SP gains from here.

That was August 17th

Jeez down 27% in 2 months or so

Bubble surely has burst? Or is it just cheap as at the moment

Chart sort of said 400 would have could support - next support looks around 300 .....or maybe it will go all the way back to 200

[boysy]

Let's not beat around the bush TIL SP performance in the last 2 months has been underwhelming to say the least. With 1st half results due in under a month will dictate how this share will trade in the next wee while. This co is still growing and making a profit which is much more than other company's on the nzx can lay claim to one has to remember.

As optimism rode the SP on the way up it's only fair pessimism has followed TIL on the way down. My bet the company will continue to play it safe and under promise and over deliver but the results in 4 weeks will clarify the position to all.

[winner69]

Waiting for the 1/2 year before updating my DCF valuations

How rich we get all depends on how Trilogy Skincare/ Ecoya (to a lesser extent) perform. CS will be a steady earner and the icing on the cake

Below is my old chart showing my forecast Trilogy/Ecoya sales under different growth scenarios.

The guidance for F17 is below the Conservative- Low Growth forecast

I am winding back my overall expectations (maybe sucked in by the hype) and am starting to think the Conservative case is going to play out. The Base Case is now the growth story. The High Growth case is just pie in the sky stuff (even though some brokers are pretty close to my numbers)

As such $3.14 is a fair valuation and if you believe the story $4.44 is it (current value, not a target)

Trading accordingly

[co0p]

What are everyone's predictions for sales by segment? I'm thinking:

18.0M - Natural Products
10.5M - Home Fragrance
19.0M - Distibution

I still believe sales in NZ (largest market) of natural products were affected by the change in distribution. Ecoya is going to be the star performer.

[winner69]

What are everyone's predictions for sales by segment? I'm thinking:

18.0M - Natural Products
10.5M - Home Fragrance
19.0M - Distibution

I still believe sales in NZ (largest market) of natural products were affected by the change in distribution. Ecoya is going to be the star performer.

So -

Home Fragrance up $1.9m or 22%
Natural Skincare up $2.4m or 16%

Sales exc CS up $4.3m or 18% - not much eh, especially considering the past company hype

You can see why I amtending to think my Low Growth scenario is playing out - DCF valuation of $3.14

I note you expect 'expected' sales guidance to be about right - wouldn't be surprised it thy came in more like $48.5m - can make those huge %ages they'll be quotingbeven more impressive

[co0p]

Yip, certainly not as strong growth as FY16. Full year growth rates are little better (assuming they reach top end of guidance).

[winner69]

BWX share price crashing not going to help any Aussie sentiment there might have been towards to Trilogy

[Balance]

BWX share price crashing not going to help any Aussie sentiment there might have been towards to Trilogy

17m BWX shares released from escrow on 12 Nov 2016 - could be reason why.

Especially when some of them (3.94m) are options exercisable at $2.00.

Can imagine that the option holders will be keen to realise A$10m of gains.

[LAC]

Down Down Down Down she goes. Might have to top up if it gets any lower

[sb9]

17m BWX shares released from escrow on 12 Nov 2016 - could be reason why.

Especially when some of them (3.94m) are options exercisable at $2.00.

Can imagine that the option holders will be keen to realise A$10m of gains.

To be released on 12 Nov 2016?

[silu]

Down Down Down Down she goes. Might have to top up if it gets any lower

With that chart und buyers depth I'd be very careful to pick a bottom for this one.

[Beagle]

Picking bottoms is a dangerous game. Better to follow the technical indicators and wait until it breaks back up through the 100 day MA line...whenever that might be ?