TIL - Trilogy [formerly ECO - Ecoya]

[golden city]

Looks like the only one buying is pie fund

[muss1]

Til is a very volatile stock. It is long term prospects is good. But going too far at the moment

I don't follow your logic at all: TIL SP has gone too far at the moment, but it's long term prospects are good (which is what us mere market mortals try to value companies on) and pie are buying more to cover losses on another stock, but they are the only one buying. Are they buying more because they think the SP will go down?

[boysy]

Sellers remorse perhaps

[kizame]

Til is a very volatile stock. It is long term prospects is good. But going too far at the moment

Wrong! Sorry but if you have a look at a chart of TIL you will see there is nothing volatile about it,in fact one of the smoothest uptrends out there at the moment.

Right! Long term prospects do look very good.

Who knows! How long it will continue its current trajectory,I'm just happy it is!

[stoploss]

I see it pie fund try to push up return % to cover up their loss in intueri

Golden City Pie Funds quit their holding in December please read the following link . I have nothing to do with Pie apart from being invested in some of their funds.
However I personally think you owe them an apology for that statement , you are accusing them of market manipulation imo,
Before you post b/s please do some research .... A lot of tall poppies re Pie Funds around , don't see a lot of people in the NZ and ASX stock picking competition matching their returns ..... Rant over

http://www.piefunds.co.nz/assets/newsletters/PieFunds-Newsletter-January-2016/Monthly-Newsletter-January-16.pdf?utm_source=Pie+Funds+Newsletter&utm_campaign=27ff42b5af-Slice_of_Pie_November+_Newsletter_2015&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_caf8d1b289-27ff42b5af-346237729&mc_cid=27ff42b5af&mc_eid=21d817ba59

[Snow Leopard]

I consider that the future of Trilogy in terms of year by year profits, cash flow etc etc is highly uncertain and so I currently do my valuations based on the, hopefully, conservative assumption that the expected great growth of this year will not be repeated.

I thus have this 'curve' of profits which reaches a 'plateau' in FY2027 where annual profits are, if you discount them back to the here and now, $0.271 per share.

Of course there are any number of possibilities either side (or both sides, the future rarely conforms to simple models) for Trilogy's next few years.

I would prefer that my projections turn out to have been pessimistic but that uncertainty is very real and it needs a margin of safety.

PS. The tiger model says that TIL will be 'worth' (the current) $3.27 in late 2018 :(.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[stevevai1983]

Let's talk about potential Chinese market.
During the past 10 years if any company made some popular products for our Chinese people, then that company's earning and profit will continue to grow rapidly for a long time and SP easily increase 10 times: ten-bagger stock.
Even Japaneses company UNIQLO SP increased so much while Nikkei index was doomed for about 20 years.
So if Trilogy makes some process for Asian market, particular Chinese market then it surely can sustain its fast growth rate for a long period of time.

Disc: Happy shareholder :)

[boysy]

Not sure China is a market being sought after at this stage. Clearly it makes sense to grow marketshare in Australia with plenty of scope to concentrate there for the next few years.

[Well Endowed]

Agreed boysy, Australian consumers align more to trilogy's environmental principles/philosophy, and given the figures in the recent presentation there is certainly scope to grow market share.

I'd guess developing the Asian/Chinese market would require a totally different strategy, given a large percentage believe in traditional medicines and ingredients, sometimes at the expense of endangered animals and dubious practices. It'd be a tougher nut to crack.

[LAC]

And its still going up....crazy

[winner69]

And its still going up....crazy

Not crazy

Just climbing to a more realistic value - more to come

Low volumes though

[LAC]

Dipped my toes in this 4 months ago at $1.68 as part of my play around fund after reading ST. If only I thought this would happen:)

[winner69]

Dipped my toes in this 4 months ago at $1.68 as part of my play around fund after reading ST. If only I thought this would happen:)

I reckon you will have doubled your money come Easter

[kiora]

Interesting trades !
Larger parcels mostly at 3.29/3.30
Someone trying to shake the tree to pick off low fruit ?

26 4:44:14 pm 318 381 5 $1,212 1
25 4:44:10 pm 323 1,050 6 $3,392 1
24 4:44:06 pm 329 5,816 11 $19,135 1
21 - 23 4:43:59 pm 318 685 5 $2,178 3
16 - 20 4:43:27 pm 323 1,113 5 $3,595 5
15 3:35:24 pm 318 301 1 $957 1
14 3:18:33 pm 317 1,186 1 $3,760 1
13 3:18:33 pm 318 4,500 5 $14,310 1
9 - 12 2:18:02 pm 323 7,200 2 $23,256 4
8 12:43:35 pm 325 314 4 $1,020 1
5 - 7 12:40:30 pm 329 3,384 4 $11,133 3
4 10:38:09 am 325 2,741 2 $8,908 1
3 10:38:09 am 327 479 3 $1,566 1
2 10:15:05 am 330 4,000 3 $13,200 1
1 9:59:50 am 327 21 $69 1

[Well Endowed]

another rubbishy small parcel sold into the close to mark the price down. classic tactics of someone who looks to still be accumulating in my opinion

[boysy]

Any one looking at the vwap can see the true story some chunky buys going through also reinforce this opinion

[sb9]

Just had look at investor centre section on their website and it says the following re their financial calendar dates.
Financial Year End – 31 March 2016
Annual Result announced by – 30 May 2016

Are we likely to get a trading update before that?

[percy]

Hopefully yes.
Definitely should they find they are above guidance.

[Southern_Belle]

I am picking above guidance too Percy. Lipstick economy kicking in as people watch their pennies. Also Travelpharm in Chch and Auck had large displays of Trilogy product and popular product with traveling kiwis and tourists.

Increasing tourist numbers got to help sales.

[sb9]

Market gives and Market takes....

[Jinx]

Market gives and Market takes....

Down 3.2% within hours of open, I'd be guessing a bounce by the end of the day?

[Well Endowed]

the liquidity is likely to create some lumpy trading days. Currently the bid has fallen away to $2.81 (last traded $3.00!). I'd expect off the back of current equity turbulence in global markets the next while's share price action will be quite choppy, this potentially creates some good buying opportunities (probably in low volumes) for those who believe the story.

I'm still holding all of mine.

[Regi]

Welp. I got in at the wrong time, is this just another dip before continuing the uptrend or possibly the end?

[Jinx]

Welp. I got in at the wrong time, is this just another dip before continuing the uptrend or possibly the end?

If we look at the chart we can see many gains and loses similar to this. TIL should be easily on its way to overshooting guidance over the last period, wouldn't worry too much as markets in general are falling. The next trading update we get (I'd hope in coming weeks / months) should bump the price back up

[BlackPeter]

Welp. I got in at the wrong time, is this just another dip before continuing the uptrend or possibly the end?

Just looking at the long term trend ... as long as it stays above $1.70 (MA200) you are allowed to call it an "uninterrupted uptrend" ... and at this stage the SP is even still above the MA50 ($2.79). Meaning - there is not really any indication yet for a trend change.

A different question is whether TIL is overall currently under- or overvalued. If they manage to continue growing with their current CAGR of something like 37% (though IMHO highly unlikely and not sustainable), than I would consider them as ways undervalued.

If they manage to achieve long term growth of around say 10% (still quite difficult), than the price feels at current sort of "just right".

If they stop growing and just earn the money they earn now - than the share is obviously already too dear.

Take your pick ...

Discl: don't hold, but I don't get it always right ...;)

[Yoda]

Interesting trades !
Larger parcels mostly at 3.29/3.30
Someone trying to shake the tree to pick off low fruit ?

26 4:44:14 pm 318 381 5 $1,212 1
25 4:44:10 pm 323 1,050 6 $3,392 1
24 4:44:06 pm 329 5,816 11 $19,135 1
21 - 23 4:43:59 pm 318 685 5 $2,178 3
16 - 20 4:43:27 pm 323 1,113 5 $3,595 5
15 3:35:24 pm 318 301 1 $957 1
14 3:18:33 pm 317 1,186 1 $3,760 1
13 3:18:33 pm 318 4,500 5 $14,310 1
9 - 12 2:18:02 pm 323 7,200 2 $23,256 4
8 12:43:35 pm 325 314 4 $1,020 1
5 - 7 12:40:30 pm 329 3,384 4 $11,133 3
4 10:38:09 am 325 2,741 2 $8,908 1
3 10:38:09 am 327 479 3 $1,566 1
2 10:15:05 am 330 4,000 3 $13,200 1
1 9:59:50 am 327 21 $69 1
Kia Ora kiaora..
where do you get that info from?

[kiora]

Kia Ora kiaora..
where do you get that info from?

stocknessmonster.com
http://stocknessmonster.com/

[Regi]

Just looking at the long term trend ... as long as it stays above $1.70 (MA200) you are allowed to call it an "uninterrupted uptrend" ... and at this stage the SP is even still above the MA50 ($2.79). Meaning - there is not really any indication yet for a trend change.

A different question is whether TIL is overall currently under- or overvalued. If they manage to continue growing with their current CAGR of something like 37% (though IMHO highly unlikely and not sustainable), than I would consider them as ways undervalued.

If they manage to achieve long term growth of around say 10% (still quite difficult), than the price feels at current sort of "just right".

If they stop growing and just earn the money they earn now - than the share is obviously already too dear.

Take your pick ...

Discl: don't hold, but I don't get it always right ...;)

Thanks a lot BP!

[Jinx]

Two days with only 1000 shares traded, no one to sell at these prices?

[golden city]

The plane is on its way down

[golden city]

Pie fund can not buy it forever

[boysy]

Albeit on 1000 share volume to put in perspective

[golden city]

It has to be come down to realistic value

[boysy]

Realistic value that's a rather subjective assertion. Fact is very few shares are changing hands neither buyers or sellers are capitulating at this stage until a trading update is provided it's hard to say if it's under or overvalued

[muss1]

Golden city, you have given no reasons as to why you think it's overvalued. Meanwhile others have posted their reasoning. Why is it so overvalued?

I'll go first, very briefly. Guidance has this FY up to 14cps at the top end. Most signs are pointing towards a beat, but we will wait and see about that. This EPS is including expenses from an increased sales push which reduces near term profit. The next few years have further growth from Australia looking promising, and if any one of the infant markets lifts off then wow. The next few FYs will likely see modest EPS growth up into the 20s. At 300, the forward PE is 20. This is for a company that will most likely double its eps on last year. It also isn't a particularly demanding multiple going forward with the potential growth avenues looking plentiful.

Your turn

[golden city]

normally I don't give reasons., valuation normal on my head.., to given you a reason .., even they have good growth but also we haven't see too much from the cs acquisition yet with all debts involve.., so need to taking some account to the risk ...as well.., earning at 14c.pa.., at pe 18 to 20 is more reasonable., also this years super growth is on the hot news of kate., it is not and unlikely repeat super growth every year. next year might be modest ..my valuation is at 2.60 more normal.. at present .given at 3.30 is a bit too high. for now.., might be suitable at the end of this year

[muss1]

I forgot to add th CS synergies we will get from distribution and also the doors that will open up.

In my opinion Kate would have more effect on the UK which we haven't seen yet, so time will tell. But yes we've had super growth, but the fact is we only need moderate growth from here to achieve decent eps growth.

At 2.60 I would be a buyer again, but I think the market will deservedly apply a PE higher than that due to the prospects. If you are right, then exciting buying ahead!

[golden city]

i have loading heaps til before between 45c to 1.60..., my initial target was 2.60 ...so after achieved my target.., i have slowly offloading them all

[golden city]

which make me a very good outcome.

[golden city]

world market unstable .., happy to keep the cash on the sideline

[golden city]

did talk to ross at the agm.., which he agreed and like my valuation.., between 2.20 to 2.60 at that time

[stoploss]

did talk to ross at the agm.., which he agreed and like my valuation.., between 2.20 to 2.60 at that time

Hopefully that conversation bears more fruit for you GC than the one with the IQE CEO ....:)

[golden city]

yes haha., time will tell....nothing is acertain in this world., need to earn for it

[golden city]

the share price was at 1.67 when I talked to him.., sold it between 2.60 to 3.., not a bad outcome.., for almost 300k shares costing average under dollar

[stoploss]

the share price was at 1.67 when I talked to him.., sold it between 2.60 to 3.., not a bad outcome.., for almost 300k shares costing average under dollar

Ok so talk us through the maths on the IQE debacle .......

[golden city]

when the price drop slightly under 30c.., I knew the dividends won't come.., at that time.. when I talked to ceo., he push away my question about dividends

[golden city]

happy exited.., won't say iqe is a dead cat.., but wont be any time soon that they can solve the problems.., at least 18 months away..before decide going back or it might be gone

[stoploss]

when the price drop slightly under 30c.., I knew the dividends won't come.., at that time.. when I talked to ceo., he push away my question about dividends

so 300K shares @ 60 out @ 30 ?

[golden city]

300k is for my til..man.., I only bought 40k iqe..my man., it is a testing bid., won't be that stupid gamble 300k on iqe

[golden city]

my another full loads are nzr thl my man

[golden city]

never enter entire position at once..my ma.., warren buffets mantra

[golden city]

and never top up a lose bids

[boysy]

Good to see some buying strength coming back through

[Jinx]

With nothing but positive announcements coming out of TIL, I'd be very surprised if their next announcement isn't in regard to a higher profit over the Christmas period.

[Well Endowed]

yeah, the drop-back has been on pretty low selling volume, the bid fell away significantly and a few small parcels chased it south.

I'm kind of pleased trilogy haven't announced an earnings upgrade, as they would be better waiting for a bit of the global markets uncertainty to blow over.

[Jinx]

waiting for a bit of the global markets uncertainty to blow over.

A vote of confidence that it will...

Still a happy holder of TIL but not sure the uncertainty will be that easy to shake

[sb9]

Big volume on buy side at $3.00, Pie funds buying more perhaps???

[Well Endowed]

consolidating nicely today. $3.09-$3.10

A quick search on the boots.co.uk website (largest pharmacy chain in the uk) shows a large number of trilogy products are out of stock - hopefully that bodes well for sales vs inadequacies in the supply chain!

Out of Stock:
Cream Cleanser 200ml
Organic Rosehip 20ml
Age proof replenishing night cream 60ml
Age proof CoQ10 booster serum 20ml


http://www.boots.com/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/SolrSearchLister?storeId=10052&catalogId=11051&langId=-1&searchTerm=trilogy#container

[boysy]

Big buys coming through on market with over $1m turnover so far

[Well Endowed]

yep 328,172 through at $3.10, decent chunk that..! Good to see a confident close to the week.

[sb9]

yep 328,172 through at $3.10, decent chunk that..! Good to see a confident close to the week.

Small correction, the lot was off-market went through at $3.09.

[Well Endowed]

hmm strange, my view was showing $3.10, but yeah the VWAP is $3.09 so you're quite right! the spread is back out to a more trilogylike at $3.10-$3.22 :)

[sb9]

1
10
2:25:22 pm
309
328,172
$1,014,051
Off Market



Here it is...

I think we're ready for next round of upward surge...:t_up:

[Jinx]

I think we're ready for next round of upward surge...:t_up:

Would love for that to happen but have a sneaking suspicion Monday will bring more market unease from the states. Maybe later next week?

[winner69]

Wish it would get back to the 330's again - sooner than later

[boysy]

Interesting herald article about nz based online venture opening door to Chinese markets with trilogy skincare getting a mention. These figures would no doubt flow through the nz book so interesting to note might be plenty more room for further nz sales to China by proxy

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11592544

[Southern_Belle]

Great spotting boysy.....word of mouth best type of advertising money can by.....watching Trilogy with interest.

[boysy]

Good day on low volume they could provide a trading update anytime now I recon

[Jinx]

Good day on low volume they could provide a trading update anytime now I recon

Certainly wouldn't expect a negative result with all the information we have so far :)

[mondograss]

ASX.MCP McPherson's Ltd have had a good result and are looking to focus much more on their Health and Beauty portfolio, which bodes well given they're a big distributor for TIL in Aussie.
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20160223/pdf/4357w6xfbpm9lk.pdf

[sb9]

1 lonely bidder wants to buy 70k @$3.17.

[boysy]

Seems like the pessimism has now dried up a bit, cue a trading update anytime now.

[muss1]

The 70k at 3.17 disappeared at the end of the day. This happened recently with a large parcel at 300. I wonder if it was the same buyer.

Looking forward to an update

[sb9]

The 70k at 3.17 disappeared at the end of the day. This happened recently with a large parcel at 300. I wonder if it was the same buyer.

Looking forward to an update

True the buyer disappeared but not before someone filled their order with 500 odd shares though.
I noticed the remaining order of 69k odd was there for a while, then gone!!!

[LAC]

Any predictions before the announcement?

[Balance]

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/vitaco-downplays-loss-trilogy-agency-contract-affirms-annual-guidance-b-185289

Interesting - Trilogy taking back its own distribution of products from Vitaco. Trust it is because they see greater potential doing it themselves or with another agency.

[boysy]

Clearly they plan to distribute via cs company aquisition should improve the bottom line

[boysy]

Reapproaching all time highs and depth starting to dry up

[Well Endowed]

good pickup Balance. using CS Company they capture the full revenue stream. Makes a lot of sense :)

"reducing annual earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation in the 2017 year by between $1.4 million and $1.7 million."

[sb9]

True the buyer disappeared but not before someone filled their order with 500 odd shares though.
I noticed the remaining order of 69k odd was there for a while, then gone!!!

Seems as though that mystery big buyer is back bidding 60,979 shares at $3.20, some of the order might've been filled.

[boysy]

So the 60k bidder sitting at 3.22 I dipped my toes in the water to buy a few more. Must be pie funds one would think.

[TJP]

Yup piefunds.co.nz see TIL as a major winner. They speculated that there was going to be a potential listing on the ASX as well.

[Well Endowed]

that 60k was filled. another few parcels of that size and we might see another significant holder release imo.

[sb9]

Good trading day in a while with reasonable volume.

[boysy]

Doesn't take much to move til up or down on.a low volume day. We will remain in a trading pattern until a trading update is provided.

[clarky]

Does anyone know when a trading update is expected?

[trader_jackson]

Not sure, but if you look at Pumpkin Patch, you could see TIL's future

(not saying it will happen, and I really hope it doesn't, but there are similarities [to me] for the products sold - both there own brands and both in retail)

[Well Endowed]

Hard to make that comparison stick when you even scratch the surface and start comparing the distribution model, branding, competition etc. Pumpkin patch established a chain of physical locations producing children's clothing that could be (and was) undercut by pretty much anyone with a sewing machine, there is no real point of difference. Trilogy produce and distribute (without the need of owning a network of expensive and timely to setup stores) organic health products. Their products are less easy to replicate and copy, due to sourced ingredients and branding, subsequently they attract a premium price and a number of celebrity endorsements.

A large part of PPs failure was its costly USA strategy in my view. It closed all its USA stores back in 2011, following a tough trading period and has been struggling pretty much ever since. Long slow death spiral. It is Hard to draw a link to suggest Trilogy is the even in the same league as the woeful pumpkin patch.

Personally I still think Trilogy is ripe for a takeover. It is getting big enough/creating enough noise that one of the big players might notice and act defensively or look to acquire a bolt-on, to bolster their organic offerings.

all my opinion off course.

[Well Endowed]

Of course I'm not saying it isn't possibly Trilogy fail. I just don't think they are at all comparable to Pumpkin Patch. in my view, worst case, expansion slows and they are forced to cut marketing/global domination, Trilogy remains a large player in the Australasian organic market and scales back its marketing, head office expansion costs to consolidate as a profitable mature business (but significantly overpriced, based on the current SP) business.

[Bilbo]

Does anyone know when a trading update is expected?

In previous years forecasts have been issued in March/April:
e.g 11 March 2015
10 April 2014
22 April 2013
4 April 2012

So I'd say we should have one before the end of April, but hopefully earlier.

[winner69]

In previous years forecasts have been issued in March/April:
e.g 11 March 2015
10 April 2014
22 April 2013
4 April 2012

So I'd say we should have one before the end of April, but hopefully earlier.

End of year is March 31

Might have to wait until late April / early May if results heading to what they have already indicated

Then again could be tomorrow saying sales are a disaster and previous guidance won't be met ......or hints are better than expected so watch out.

If that keen just give the company a ring and ask when.

NZX says Lindsay +6493679464. Is your man

[Balance]

Not sure, but if you look at Pumpkin Patch, you could see TIL's future

(not saying it will happen, and I really hope it doesn't, but there are similarities [to me] for the products sold - both there own brands and both in retail)

Big big difference between the two.

PPL owns stores and this has been the killer when their expansion plans went wrong - lease commitments costing the company tens of millions of dollars as well as the obvious, which is that sales were not taking place anymore.

[sb9]

Not sure, but if you look at Pumpkin Patch, you could see TIL's future

(not saying it will happen, and I really hope it doesn't, but there are similarities [to me] for the products sold - both there own brands and both in retail)

With due respect, only comparison between them is they both are in Retail and there it ends.

Product, target market, pricing model, distribution channels and advertising are all big points of differences.

Hence its not fair comparison in my opinion.

[boysy]

Some daily chunky buys continuing to go through pushing up the price let's hope they know some thing we don't

[Balance]

Some daily chunky buys continuing to go through pushing up the price let's hope they know some thing we don't

Was told of their profit margins on their Trilogy products the other day - makes your eyes water, and want to own more of their shares!

[winner69]

Was told of their profit margins on their Trilogy products the other day - makes your eyes water, and want to own more of their shares!

When I was brave/stupid enough to put up my DCF valuations somebody said I had to allow for shrinking margins (implying my valuations were too high)

Maybe I should have allowed for margin expansion on that news Balance.

Trilogy great product range - pity the stupid candles are a drag on overall performance

I'll stick to my numbers

[Balance]

When I was brave/stupid enough to put up my DCF valuations somebody said I had to allow for shrinking margins (implying my valuations were too high)

Maybe I should have allowed for margin expansion on that news Balance.

Trilogy great product range - pity the stupid candles are a drag on overall performance

I'll stick to my numbers

All successfully branded beauty care products have huge margins.

Example given by a contract manufacturer - a tube of moisturizer cream costs $2 for the cream and $2.50 for the packaging (use of gold and silver & high quality material) & distribution (ie. to the store). Sells for up to $19.95 (retailer typically gets between 30% to 50% - how popular is the product determines the margin). Marketing and promotional costs are obviously extra and cost per tube depends on volume sold. Trilogy now has volume so I guess margins per unit sold will keep growing.

[winner69]

All successfully branded beauty care products have huge margins.

Example - a tube of moisturizer cream costs $2 for the cream and $2.50 for the packaging & distribution. Sells for up to $19.95 (retailer typically gets between 30% to 50% - how popular is the product determines the margin). Marketing and promotional costs are obviously extra and cost per tube depends on volume sold. Trilogy now has volume so I guess margins per unit sold will keep growing.

Know an owner of a hardware store. Punters moan about the price of paint at $190 a bucket -$19 a litre

To woman customers he says "nice fingernails - how much that nail paint cost you?". Lady says about $25

Hardware guy pretends to do some sums ...$25 for 15ml .....and says to the lady "66 to a litre eh at $25 each is nearly $1,700 a litre or $17,000 for a 10 litre bucket and you complain about $190 for same amount of house paint which does the same job

Yes truly great margins in making people beautiful

[LAC]

Is anyone expecting the EPS to be more that 0.135?

[winner69]

Is anyone expecting the EPS to be more that 0.135?

That's $8.5m

So my answer to your question is yes

[LAC]

Ok, but if it's more than 0.16 we would have gotten an update by now right? Will they "have" to inform us that they are above guidance? Or does it have to be a certain % over guidance?

[sb9]

Fairly decent turnover day today, must be something coming up sooner than later.

[Jinx]

Ok, but if it's more than 0.16 we would have gotten an update by now right? Will they "have" to inform us that they are above guidance? Or does it have to be a certain % over guidance?

Silly question as a new investor but are companies legally required to inform us if they are above guidance? Or as you ask is it a certain % over?

Thanks for whoever can answer our question :)

[trader_jackson]

Silly question as a new investor but are companies legally required to inform us if they are above guidance? Or as you ask is it a certain % over?

Thanks for whoever can answer our question :)

I know this may seem silly to ask as we all know TIL, a very much retail focused stock, can only go up... but you could always consider that they actually aren't above guidance... (although I'm sure pumpkin patch investors back in mid 2006 didn't need to worry and were just as"keen" to hear an update confirming they were above guidance ;))

[Jinx]

I know this may seem silly to ask as we all know TIL, a very much retail focused stock, can only go up... but you could always consider that they actually aren't above guidance...

That wasn't my question, my question was for any company, are they required to inform investors if they are over guidance?

[trader_jackson]

That wasn't my question, my question was for any company, are they required to inform investors if they are over guidance?

Seems a bit weird to put in on the TIL thread, but anyway in line with general disclosure rules, if a company was 'materially' above or below previously disclosed guidance then they should provide an indication of this via announcement (these days, unlike the 1980's, you usually don't get 'huge surprises' on results day, if there is anything 'material' that is to affect results, the company should really announce it as soon as they find out about it) Unless you are Wynyard and then you just surprise everyone on the day ;)

Disclosure: - please correct me if I am wrong as I am not 100% sure and don't work for NZX

[winner69]

That wasn't my question, my question was for any company, are they required to inform investors if they are over guidance?

General guidelines are for 15% under/over 'guidance'/'expectations' to be disclosed

Company's decide for themselves if they want to excite punters with good stories even if not compelled to (as above)

What was their last guidance anyway?

[Jinx]

General guidelines are for 15% under/over 'guidance'/'expectations' to be disclosed

Company's decide for themselves if they want to excite punters with good stories even if not compelled to (as above)

What was their last guidance anyway?

The company expects net profit before tax to range
between $10 million to $12 million up from $4.6 million in the prior year.

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=TIL&E=NZSE&N=270582

[winner69]

The company expects net profit before tax to range
between $10 million to $12 million up from $4.6 million in the prior year.

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=TIL&E=NZSE&N=270582

No no jinx

It's EBIT $12m to $14m - up from $4.9m in the prior year

https://www.nzx.com/companies/TIL/announcements/274011

Unless there's been a downgrade that's what I am working too.

[winner69]

And remember what ever the profit is it only includes CS for part of the year and there were some one off acquisition costs.

Watch out for a 'normalised annualised' number and base FY17 on that and see what TIL might be worth then

Heaps more than $3.23 I reckon

[boysy]

Hope you mean $3.23 winner69

[winner69]

Hope you mean $3.23 winner69

No - meant to be $4.23 ....sometime

[boysy]

Buy sell ratio starting to get back to 2:1 plenty of punters seem happy to be buying around this level

[Jinx]

Buy sell ratio starting to get back to 2:1 plenty of punters seem happy to be buying around this level

Everyone trying to get in before a predicted amazing report?

[Well Endowed]

As I mentioned awhile back, Trilogy presented at a conference on this in Monaco. Following up Obama's comments and the ban of products containing micro-beads coming into effect Mid 2017. Products and lines are being reformulated and Trilogy continues to get good PR. Huge potential growthif they can even capture a small slice of the USA market (or get on enough radars to attract a takeover offer??)


"Now that the bipartisan Microbead-Free Waters Act of 2015 was signed into law late last year, many manufacturers have to rework cosmetics and personal-cleansing products by July 1, 2017. The microbeads, used as exfoliants, have been found to slip through water treatment systems, ending up in streams, rivers and larger bodies of water.

One company that doesn’t need to tweak anything is Trilogy, a natural skin care collection sold in the U.S. at Whole Foods, pharmacies, specialty stores and online.
Trilogy’s sales manager for the United States, Corinne Morley, is an expert in not only natural brands, but also frequently speaks about best practices in the production, recycling and waste management of plastic products. “We’ve always believed you don’t have to sacrifice performance for natural,” Morley said, adding that the company was founded to fill a gap for truly natural skin care. “These days, thanks to constant innovation in natural and organic skin care, you can get the same or indeed better results without resorting to synthetics.
As consumers focus more on natural, she thinks they’ll drive changes. “The speed of the movement will be driven by consumer demand. As more consumers become aware of this [danger] the anti-plastic movement will gain momentum,” she said. The emergence of independent natural and organic certifications, such as Natrue and the USDA should also stymie “greenwashing,” which in the past has made it difficult to discern between authentic natural and pseudo natural, she concluded."




http://www.drugstorenews.com/article/brands-rework-products-containing-microbeads

[sb9]

As I mentioned awhile back, Trilogy presented at a conference on this in Monaco. Following up Obama's comments and the ban of products containing micro-beads coming into effect Mid 2017. Products and lines are being reformulated and Trilogy continues to get good PR. Huge potential growthif they can even capture a small slice of the USA market (or get on enough radars to attract a takeover offer??)


"Now that the bipartisan Microbead-Free Waters Act of 2015 was signed into law late last year, many manufacturers have to rework cosmetics and personal-cleansing products by July 1, 2017. The microbeads, used as exfoliants, have been found to slip through water treatment systems, ending up in streams, rivers and larger bodies of water.

One company that doesn’t need to tweak anything is Trilogy, a natural skin care collection sold in the U.S. at Whole Foods, pharmacies, specialty stores and online.
Trilogy’s sales manager for the United States, Corinne Morley, is an expert in not only natural brands, but also frequently speaks about best practices in the production, recycling and waste management of plastic products. “We’ve always believed you don’t have to sacrifice performance for natural,” Morley said, adding that the company was founded to fill a gap for truly natural skin care. “These days, thanks to constant innovation in natural and organic skin care, you can get the same or indeed better results without resorting to synthetics.
As consumers focus more on natural, she thinks they’ll drive changes. “The speed of the movement will be driven by consumer demand. As more consumers become aware of this [danger] the anti-plastic movement will gain momentum,” she said. The emergence of independent natural and organic certifications, such as Natrue and the USDA should also stymie “greenwashing,” which in the past has made it difficult to discern between authentic natural and pseudo natural, she concluded."




http://www.drugstorenews.com/article/brands-rework-products-containing-microbeads

Very informative, thanks for sharing.

[boysy]

Strong finish to the day will a lower exchange rate have a material impact on the results especially the nzd/aud cross where they get a majority of their sales.

[LAC]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/TIL/announcements/279099
About time

[percy]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/TIL/announcements/279099
About time

I look forward to seeing what Noodles has to post.
He has a record of being "right on the money " with TIL.

[LAC]

Looking fwd to it as well Percy. I haven't held this stock too long but it has been good to me so far:)

[boysy]

Makes you wonder how much they expect to exceed the numbers mentioned. Gives a high level of confidence they are at or will be at the numbers mentioned already. Let's not underestimate the exceeds mention.

[Jinx]

Odd the price jumped so much at 4:30 before the guidance update. Does someone know something we don't? Looking forward to tomorrow

[winner69]

I look forward to seeing what Noodles has to post.
He has a record of being "right on the money " with TIL.

Told you a month or so their revenues guidance didn't make any sense at all and $79m was a bull **** number

Normalised NPBT (allowing fora full year of CS Co) obviously going to be in excess of $15m

Latest numbers as expected and in line with what I used in my valuations posted a while back

[sb9]

Told you a month or so their revenues guidance didn't make any sense at all and $79m was a bull **** number

Normalised NPBT (allowing fora full year of CS Co) obviously going to be in excess of $15m

Latest numbers as expected and in line with what I used in my valuations posted a while back

May be 4.23 here we come, eh winner?

[percy]

Told you a month or so their revenues guidance didn't make any sense at all and $79m was a bull **** number

Normalised NPBT (allowing fora full year of CS Co) obviously going to be in excess of $15m

Latest numbers as expected and in line with what I used in my valuations posted a while back

You are doing well W69.
Keep up the good work.

[boysy]

You going to do an updated valuation winner69 ? Should fly tomorrow also next to no depth on the sell side your 4.23 call may be bang on the money

[trader_jackson]

"those were the days" (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/pumpkin-patch-ltd/news/article.cfm?o_id=165&objectid=10401808)

Disclosure: I realize there are distinct differences with TIL, but I would still be on the cautious side. Although it is shaping up to be a great result, I believe it is largely priced in (although there could be a bit of action tomorrow)

[LAC]

"those were the days" (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/pumpkin-patch-ltd/news/article.cfm?o_id=165&objectid=10401808)

What are the similarities between these businesses, I dont understand why it's being compared to Pumpkin Patch. Can someone please explain?

[boysy]

Would be interested hearing traders answer

[muss1]

"those were the days" (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/pumpkin-patch-ltd/news/article.cfm?o_id=165&objectid=10401808)

Disclosure: I realize there are distinct differences with TIL, but I would still be on the cautious side. Although it is shaping up to be a great result, I believe it is largely priced in (although there could be a bit of action tomorrow)


Yes, very confused by that article. "Company grows revenue and profit". I could probably find millions of similar articles on the Internet. What are the other similarities here? Last time I checked, growing revenue and profits was a good thing.

Any slowdown down in sales is not going to hurt trilogy anywhere near as much as pumpkin patch because they don't have their own stores to finance. That is a MASSIVE difference!

The one thing I agree with is valuation isn't cheap. But given the potential growth it's not expensive either.

[trader_jackson]

What are the similarities between these businesses, I dont understand why it's being compared to Pumpkin Patch. Can someone please explain?

Well the end product, ie something tangible consumers buy, based on the brand, is the underlying similarity!

I agree with muss1 that they way they get this consumer product to the consumer is different (ie no shop front), and ultimately, lower cost.

But the idea that they are designing, producing, branding and then selling a consumer / end-user product is ultimately the same - this is where revenue is generated (even if it is reputable/high quality clothing or candle brand)

[Jinx]

But the idea that they are designing, producing, branding and then selling a consumer / end-user product is ultimately the same - this is where revenue is generated (even if it is reputable/high quality clothing or candle brand)

So any company that designing, producing, branding and then selling to a consumer are all a pumpkin patch rerun?

[Cricketfan]

So any company that designing, producing, branding and then selling to a consumer are all a pumpkin patch rerun?

The other similarity would be their popularity being dependent on what's in fashion rather than quality of product/service. Both are probably also dependent on women's tastes, and they have a right to change their mind.

[trader_jackson]

So any company that designing, producing, branding and then selling to a consumer are all a pumpkin patch rerun?

Potentially could be, I know Quicksilver, something that was also extremely trendy (and not just clothing) filed for chapter 11 in the US recently... they also, say 10 years ago, probably would have been 'laughing till the cows came home' at such comparisons made against them... all I'm saying is that people can suddenly and violently change their "preferences" and like good old Quicksilver and Pumkin, TIL is exposed directly to this.

If you believe they have a premium product that can beat (or is better than) the competition AND continue to do so AND willing to pay a huge premium for it, then by all means back the truck up on TIL

[Balance]

Potentially could be, I know Quicksilver, something that was also extremely trendy (and not just clothing) filed for chapter 11 in the US recently... they also, say 10 years ago, probably would have been 'laughing till the cows came home' at such comparisons made against them... all I'm saying is that people can suddenly and violently change their "preferences" and like good old Quicksilver and Pumkin, TIL is exposed directly to this.

If you believe they have a premium product that can beat (or is better than) the competition AND continue to do so AND willing to pay a huge premium for it, then by all means back the truck up on TIL

PPL's problems actually have little to do with the company's products going out of fashion. It has everything to do with the company's unrealistic ambitious plans to expand and/or open up almost simultaneously in Australia, Middle East, UK and US. And they did it owning the stores - something the company had little real expertise with beyond little old NZ.

The poorly executed expansion overseas sucked the company's resources dry and management spent all their time fighting fires overseas and completely took their eyes off the ball - the ball being that PPL was a trend leader and needed to maintain its trend setting positioning. The rest is history.

Ask the original owners/shareholders if you want to know how they feel. I did.

[sb9]

I look forward to seeing what Noodles has to post.
He has a record of being "right on the money " with TIL.

Wonder if noodles is still working on the numbers, give us the good oil noodles.

[noodles]

Wonder if noodles is still working on the numbers, give us the good oil noodles.
Rosehip Oil is a good oil.

[sb9]

Rosehip Oil is a good oil.
It's all good then, sweet.

[boysy]

Would be good to get some broker coverage on til in the short term perhaps the increased guidance and greater daily volume and market cap will force there hands.

[Balance]

Would be good to get some broker coverage on til in the short term perhaps the increased guidance and greater daily volume and market cap will force there hands.

Broker coverage is not necessarily a good thing for a stock like TIL until such time as it enters the indices.

As long as the company is transparent with shareholders and the market, and is good with continuous disclosure - brokers' coverage levels the playing field.

Stocks like TIL do so well because of mispricing in the market - most of the institutions are blissfully unaware.

Think of how many have been able to get into TIL at a very good price because the brokers were still busy covering Meridian etc etc.

[winner69]

You going to do an updated valuation winner69 ? Should fly tomorrow also next to no depth on the sell side your 4.23 call may be bang on the money

Not at moment.

They seem to be performing as I expected (like I had revenues at $84m this year and that looks like the outcome)

The valuation is $4.43 by the way (low growth scenario $3.74and high growth $5.62)

[Jinx]

Profit taking from this mornings high in full effect

[boysy]

Decent end to the day on fairly decent volume surely the trading update will consolidate the so around the 3-30 level

[sb9]

Bit of strange trading action this morning with one seller offering 10,000 shares @3.27 and part of the order gone through filling 1906 shares. Rest of unfilled sell order stayed there for a while before it got disappeared/removed and sp has since recovered all lost ground back at 3.35.

[winner69]

Bit of strange trading action this morning with one seller offering 10,000 shares @3.27 and part of the order gone through filling 1906 shares. Rest of unfilled sell order stayed there for a while before it got disappeared/removed and sp has since recovered all lost ground back at 3.35.

You selling or buying sb9 looking at the depth all the time

[sb9]

You selling or buying sb9 looking at the depth all the time

Holding at the moment. Watching the price action in light of their trading update from last week.

[sb9]

1
8
2:58:26 pm
331
158,750
$525,462
Off Market



Big off-market trade.

[Well Endowed]

will have to wait for a change in holdings release, but I feel like there might be one due, especially after that other off-market parcel went through not long back.

[sb9]

will have to wait for a change in holdings release, but I feel like there might be one due, especially after that other off-market parcel went through not long back.

Have a funny feeling its ready for next round of explosion.

[Snow Leopard]

Just light an Ecoya scented candle before you leave the room OK?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Jinx]

Implying you've sold out PT? :O

[Snow Leopard]

Implying you've sold out PT? :O

Implying that you do not have the nose for Tiger Toilet Humour.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Jinx]

Implying that you do not have the nose for Tiger Toilet Humour.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Still learning ;)

[boysy]

Buyers starting to bid up a fair chunk at 3-35. To mention in the trading update that figures will exceed certain values suggests these figures have already been met I wouldnt therefore be suprised to see a > $90M revenue figure when the fy results are provided.

[Well Endowed]

nice close to $3.45 today, albeit on tiny volume!

[Southern_Belle]

glad I backed this with the rent money :t_up:

[kura]

I'm almost confident enough to go & buy a few candles !

[boysy]

Was interesting to note during the course of the day the bids step up bit by bit clearly plenty of interest in the stock by a number of parties.

[sb9]

Someone has put in a bid for 10,000 shares at $3.50, getting close to your target price eh winner?

[NZSilver]

I sold a few TIL, its been a very good run up, markets are recovering well.

[boysy]

Decent run continues with close to 100k shares trading hands at a wavp of over 3.50 today. Question had to be asked which entity is buying up shares large 8n the last month no updated notices to the nzx.

[JayRiggs]

Decent run continues with close to 100k shares trading hands at a wavp of over 3.50 today. Question had to be asked which entity is buying up shares large 8n the last month no updated notices to the nzx.

My only guess is Pie Funds. They're currently sitting on 9% - probably keen to get it to a rounder figure of 10%.
They would had to have bought at least 6.1m shares (1% of total shares) from January 28th onwards.
Their last SSH, it took them about 2.5 months to buy that much.
Lets sit back and see...

[winner69]

I'm almost confident enough to go & buy a few candles !

Pity they still sell candles - a drag on earnings with no sign of them ever making a decent contribution

Some will say they complement the body lotions etc so all honky dory

[boysy]

I would say the candles initially were a differentiating feature, even if it isn't super profitable it's still a great marketing ploy being a premier brand. It should gain traction if they can get greater sales overseas outside nz and Australia. I must say my better half and her friends seem more than happy to drop $50 on a ecoya scented candles to my amazement the marketing works.

[winner69]

I would say the candles initially were a differentiating feature, even if it isn't super profitable it's still a great marketing ploy being a premier brand. It should gain traction if they can get greater sales overseas outside nz and Australia. I must say my better half and her friends seem more than happy to drop $50 on a ecoya scented candles to my amazement the marketing works.

Should be charging $75 or getting out of candles if as a shareholder you want decent profits

[boysy]

Let's see the annual report, I imagine any additional ecoya sales will flow directly through to the bottom line. They have had to spend up large re marketing to get a presence but this should pay off on the basis they increase sales.

[winner69]

Let's see the annual report, I imagine any additional ecoya sales will flow directly through to the bottom line. They have had to spend up large re marketing to get a presence but this should pay off on the basis they increase sales.

Lets hope so eh boysy

[Southern_Belle]

Pity they still sell candles - a drag on earnings with no sign of them ever making a decent contribution

Some will say they complement the body lotions etc so all honky dory

There is a range of hand creams and body wash etc that has the Ecoya brand too. Not just candles. Definitely the brands compliment each other.

[LAC]

Interesting sale notification....

https://www.nzx.com/companies/TIL/announcements/279486

[winner69]

Interesting sale notification....

https://www.nzx.com/companies/TIL/announcements/279486

Buy when insiders are buy most n this sitesay ...

No worries - just another deck/house renovation

Interesting how many insiders are selling out at the moment - TIL / VGL ...

[babymonster]

Buy when insiders are buy most n this sitesay ...

No worries - just another deck/house renovation

Interesting how many insiders are selling out at the moment - TIL / VGL ...
VGL... hmmm... and THL maybe?

[Yoda]

Interesting sale notification....

https://www.nzx.com/companies/TIL/announcements/279486
Mmmmm, yes i saw that too. Interesting to see if another director sells. $500k? A lot to take out if the SP is going up.... Or am i reading it wrong.
may be a stop loss sell is required at 3.30, not sure. Any ideas. .?

[muss1]

Yes he owns another 15m shares or something... Nothing to worry about. It's coming into winter so maybe a house in wanaka?

[sb9]

Yes he owns another 15m shares or something... Nothing to worry about. It's coming into winter so maybe a house in wanaka?

Yeah, I wouldn't read much into his sale. They gotta take profit at times too, can't sit on paper profits forever.

[Baa_Baa]

Tui Ad:

Chairman sells 1/2 million $ worth of shares, a big proportion of his portfolio, No Worries. Yeah Right!

[noodles]

Tui Ad:

Chairman sells 1/2 million $ worth of shares, a big proportion of his portfolio, No Worries. Yeah Right!
Consider this:
The Business Bakery owns 48% of TIL
Geoff Ross owns 40% of The Business Bakery

Market Cap of TIL is $207m

[boysy]

perhaps some facts he Is part of the business bakery lp which still owns 49% of trilogy,let's not get facts in the way of a good storey.


http://www.thebakery.co.nz/about/

[boysy]

Beat me to it noodles some people don't do their homework before posting

[Snow Leopard]

Tui Ad:

Chairman sells 1/2 million $ worth of shares, a big proportion of his portfolio, No Worries. Yeah Right!

Remember he still owns 40% of the shares in the Business Bakery that owns 30 million Trilogy shares.

The rumour is that a ShareTrader member met him over a MOA beer this week and mentioned, whilst passing the chips, that a certain Tiger thought TIL was a little over-priced.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Baa_Baa]

Chairman still pulled 1/2 a $Mill equity from the company. You can paint it any way you like, but considering the exuberant rise from .9 it looks like a smart move cashing in at 200% + ... explain why the Chairman, or his 'vehicle' sold 158750 shares, if is wasn't to capitalise on the over inflated SP.

[stoploss]

Chairman still pulled 1/2 a $Mill equity from the company. You can paint it any way you like, but considering the exuberant rise from .9 it looks like a smart move cashing in at 200% + ... explain why the Chairman, or his 'vehicle' sold 158750 shares, if is wasn't to capitalise on the over inflated SP.

Apparently he needs a new deck :)

[Baa_Baa]

Apparently he needs a new deck :)

Apparently. When the Chair speaks, some should listen, even if they don't want to hear.

[Yoda]

Beat me to it noodles some people don't do their homework before posting
Yes your quite right ;), and appreciate your kick up the butt. but great discussion , and i appreciate he has plenty more. I appreciate this isnt the same, but when the directors of PEB sold out , i ignored it, and let it slide well down. Im Probably still mad at myself for that.

[muss1]

Tui Ad:

Chairman sells 1/2 million $ worth of shares, a big proportion of his portfolio, No Worries. Yeah Right!

Half a million dollars out of 35 million? A huge 1.5%

[Baa_Baa]

Half a million dollars out of 35 million? A huge 1.5%

He sold 87.6% of his ordinary shares on market, the ones he owns/owned personally, the ones he has/had sole discretion over.

Business Bakery owns 720,653 ordinary shares, and 30,088,091 unlisted non-voting shares, Mr Ross owns 40% of the company and does not have sole discretion.

The point being that the Chairman chose to sell a large proportion of his shares, for whatever reason, though a 268% increase in SP in 6 months seems an obvious one.

[winner69]

He sold 87.6% of his ordinary shares on market, the ones he owns/owned personally, the ones he has/had sole discretion over.

Business Bakery owns 720,653 ordinary shares, and 30,088,091 unlisted non-voting shares, Mr Ross owns 40% of the company and does not have sole discretion.

The point being that the Chairman chose to sell a large proportion of his shares, for whatever reason, though a 268% increase in SP in 6 months seems an obvious one.

I think you have your ordinary and unlisted non-voting numbers the wrong way around

[Baa_Baa]

I think you have your ordinary and unlisted non-voting numbers the wrong way around

Really?
7939

[winner69]

Really?
7939

I just going what's in the Annual Report

Note 20 -Annual Report says

The total authorised number of ordinary shares is 61,673,762 shares (2014: 61,348,528 shares) and the total authorised number of unlisted non-voting shares is 720,653 (2014: 720,653).

http://trilogyproducts.com/investors/assets/Uploads/Trilogy-International-Ltd-Annual-Report-2015FA.pdf

Who knows

[NZSilver]

I have to admit I sold a quarter of my holding the other day when it was up at 3.50. Solid company, solid future but i think markets will have a freak out in the near term and there will be some excellent buying opportunities on the NZX - so many solid dividend paying companies the eps growth! - its pretty amazing to have 15- 25%+ capital return + 5-9% div yields. Dow back on the move, but it is only a matter of time before there is "worry" over china's growth, or "negative statistics" regarding Americas economic. Prob re-post this in black monday.

[winner69]

TIL shareprice had the odd bad day in the past but a 11 cent fall on a boomer record breaking day on the NZX is not good

Hope the TIL bubble hasn't burst

[Snow Leopard]

Really?
7939

Yes. really.
I have very kindly grouped the sections by the way they read as opposed to the way they are bordered.
http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y269/TheTigerWithNoName/SharetraderImages/NZX-TIL/Untitled.png

Best Wishes
Paper 'Rap Star' Tiger

[trader_jackson]

Given the whole market, particularly in New Zealand, has been rather strong lately, combined with a seemingly unstoppable increase in TIL's share price, why would there be a need for a 'major player' such as the Chairman to sell now (especially so much of his holding!?) Maybe he wanted to build a new deck ;) although it looks to be a pretty expensive deck... I'm surprised the alarm bells aren't ringing louder!

[Cricketfan]

Yes. really.
I have very kindly grouped the sections by the way they read as opposed to the way they are bordered.
http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y269/TheTigerWithNoName/SharetraderImages/NZX-TIL/Untitled.png

Best Wishes
Paper 'Rap Star' Tiger

Thanks for clearing that up, I've always had trouble reading those things. Very badly designed forms, aren't they?

[noodles]

It seems some folk on this forum think that the massive increase in the share price makes TIL appear to be in a bubble. For me, I think there is an earnings bubble.
Lets look at NPBT (1000's)
FY13=88
FY14=1,260
FY15=4,600
FY16=13,000 (at least)
FY17=20,369 (my estimate)

If they do make my estimate, they will be cheaper than the average NZX stock (on a pe basis)

[noodles]

Angela Buglass (CEO) talks to Carly Flynn
http://www.radiolive.co.nz/Life-balance-and-beauty/tabid/506/articleID/116979/Default.aspx

[winner69]

It seems some folk on this forum think that the massive increase in the share price makes TIL appear to be in a bubble. For me, I think there is an earnings bubble.
Lets look at NPBT (1000's)
FY13=88
FY14=1,260
FY15=4,600
FY16=13,000 (at least)
FY17=20,369 (my estimate)

If they do make my estimate, they will be cheaper than the average NZX stock (on a pe basis)

That 20,369 is higher than the number I have in my $4.43 base valuation

The growth case valuation f $5.62 has f17 npbt as 22.400

We pretty much on the same page noodles.

So share price over $4 pretty soon I reckon

[winner69]

Buyers starting to bid up a fair chunk at 3-35. To mention in the trading update that figures will exceed certain values suggests these figures have already been met I wouldnt therefore be suprised to see a > $90M revenue figure when the fy results are provided.

A >$90m revenue figures would blow better mine forecast and probably noodles's one as well

That $4.43 valuation of mine looking a bit light as time goes, esp Ecoya starts earning its keep as well

[winner69]

Noodles - an earnings bubble eh. Not a good phrase to use

Kate goes off this special oil she uses and the earnings bubble bursts ......

[winner69]

My mum gave me a daily dose of rosehip syrup - don't know what for but heck look what it's done to me

[Beagle]

Funny thing about cosmetics, (drawing on many years of professional association with a privately owned distributor here), women can be very fickle customers...what's hot one minute isn't so cool when all the ladies start talking about another wonder cosmetic that makes them look even younger. What happens when Kate finds something different she likes better...food for thought ?

Just as an aside for some of you folks out there...I've been struggling with dry itchy eyelids for years and this stuff that my local charming lady at the pharmacy got me on too is the bee knees for solving that problem and any other dry and itchy skin issues you may have. No it isn't made by Trilogy and I don't think Comvita own it either but it really works and is inexpensive http://www.apicare.co.nz/products/manuka-therapy-30-honey-creme/ Still I suppose nobody will care what I think because I'm not nearly as pretty or famous as Kate, not by a long shot LOL.

The point to this post other than to help anyone who has the same problem which in and of itself may make this post worthwhile, is a salient reminder that there's a ton of different products out there and to pose the question, just for the sake of playing devil's advocate of where's the moat for TIL ? Every man and his neighbour's dog is making cosmetics claiming all natural ingredients yada yada yada and I've seen growth can turn on a dime in the cosmetics industry when what's hot starts to cool off. Maybe it'll be different for TIL, who can know for sure but I won't gamble on it...PE is too rich for my blood.

A director selling a big part of their personal stake is never a good sign. Look no further than Mrs Barlow's sale of a decent part of her stake in SUM as a prime example...SP did Jack for nearly two years after that. My 2 cents.

[winner69]

Roger, as long as Miranda keeps using it we will be OK

I'm told Trilogy stuff pretty popular with blokes as well

[percy]

Store visit,Thursday 17th March.
Store;Life Pharmacy,Barrington Mall.
Well located,busy store.
"Yes wonderful natural products.We sell some every day.Very good firm to deal with."
"Our display is not very good and very poorly located.We are moving it up to the front of the store next week,and will feature a new display".

[winner69]

Miranda what a brilliant comedy that was, I loved it !! She's quite the Tomboy so maybe that explains your last sentence :)

Trilogy touted Miranda as using rosehip to keep her delectable looking .....but I see that Miranda has her own range of skincare products which includes a rosehip oil

[boysy]

Interesting the end of the Carly Flynn interview taking about til cracking into the U.S. market via wholefood distribution. I think we so much emphasis is placed on the Australian and nz market we forget the huge potential of far larger more mature markets.

[winner69]

I'm getting super excited and even more bullish on TIL

Last few days these comments -


boysy - .....we forget the huge potential of far larger more mature markets. (add in just 1% market share)

noodles - thinks there is a earnings bubble. (Still to be fully inflated)

boysy - ....I imagine any additional ecoya sales will flow directly through to the bottom line.

Percy - his report from the field (sales going well / more exposure in store)

boysy - expects revenues to be >$90m in F16


Feed these into my DCF model (the 'Sharetrader insights' version) and I get a valuation of $5.95 (even after increasing the discount rate a tad to allow for a bit of hype or exhuberence)

TIL is still cheap as. Very limited if any downside but huge upside.

[boysy]

Let's wait until we see the full year results but I think the rate of revenue growth is greater than most people here think. One just has to look at the numerous trading updates in the past 18 months to realise what momentum the business at present has, and on the same token how much additional room for growth in the international markets trilogy, goodness and ecoya still have.

[Southern_Belle]

Store visit,Thursday 17th March.
Store;Life Pharmacy,Barrington Mall.
Well located,busy store.
"Yes wonderful natural products.We sell some every day.Very good firm to deal with."
"Our display is not very good and very poorly located.We are moving it up to the front of the store next week,and will feature a new display".
Store Visit: Farmers Northlands Mall, CHCH
Asked the store assistant about the products: "they are the most popular range of skincare products and I use them myself. The Chinese & Korean buyers will clear the shelves to send overseas, we have to restock during the day." She also said that bloggers from these countries recommend them and spread the word.

I was trying out the samples and young Korean man with brochure of the products Is studying them intently so I asked him what he was looking for. He said he was buying for his wife and himself, they both use the products and he was buying to send to family in Korea.

DISC: Holder and doing my own research

[Bilbo]

Store Visit: Farmers Northlands Mall, CHCH
Asked the store assistant about the products: "they are the most popular range of skincare products and I use them myself. The Chinese & Korean buyers will clear the shelves to send overseas, we have to restock during the day." She also said that bloggers from these countries recommend them and spread the word.

I was trying out the samples and young Korean man with brochure of the products Is studying them intently so I asked him what he was looking for. He said he was buying for his wife and himself, they both use the products and he was buying to send to family in Korea.

DISC: Holder and doing my own research

What I'm most excited about is the US distribution via Wholefoods Market. For those that don't know the company WFM has a market cap of $11B USD. These are huge supermarkets full of natural products and attract customers that believe totally in health and well being and have no qualms about spending $$$ on their health and beauty products. Truly worth a visit to one if you are visiting the US as there is nothing like this in NZ. From their website "Today, we’re the world’s leader in natural and organic foods, with 439 stores in North America and the United Kingdom"

They have mentioned Trilogy products in several recent blogs, so are clearly promoting rather than just stocking:
e.g.
http://www.wholefoodsmarket.com/blog/spa-gifts-your-valentine
"This brand has a cult following in New Zealand, and Whole Foods Market is the only national retailer that carries their products. Rich rosehip oil contains antioxidants and fatty acids to help reduce the appearance of fine lines."
http://www.wholefoodsmarket.com/blog/beauty-oils-every-skin-type
http://www.wholefoodsmarket.com/blog/tips-rosy-cheeks-and-lips

I can't wait to find out how sales via WFM are tracking :)

[winner69]

Hey bilbo - seen this?

http://www.wholefoodsmagazine.com/hbc/features/opportunity-skincare-natural-retailers

Is a few years old but shucks fast growing category and whole foods want a big chunk

Your home work. Read this and do few extrapolations as to market size and then whole foods share and then what's say 5% or 10% Trilogy share of whole foods sales worth

Must be tens of millions ...or maybe hundreds of millions

Report back tomorrow pease

Thanks

[Bilbo]

Hey bilbo - seen this?

http://www.wholefoodsmagazine.com/hbc/features/opportunity-skincare-natural-retailers

Is a few years old but shucks fast growing category and whole foods want a big chunk

Your home work. Read this and do few extrapolations as to market size and then whole foods share and then what's say 5% or 10% Trilogy share of whole foods sales worth

Must be tens of millions ...or maybe hundreds of millions

Report back tomorrow pease

Thanks

Thanks, I will have a read.

I can not see Trilogy getting to be anywhere near 5% of whole foods skincare sales. Wholefoods are likely to have 100s of products in that category.

[boysy]

Interesting to note that the majority of trilogy's growth is via the trilogy brands in Australia with the usa being a small but the quickest growing segment (no doubt to be further fuelledby whole foods 431 doors in the states). One has to think nzd equilivent sales are being helped along from the fall against both the use and aud as well ?

While the agm slides are dated it's interesting to note the regional breakdown of ecoya (most income from nz) and trilogy (most income from Australia then nz then other international markets)

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/221288.pdf

[Southern_Belle]

Given the whole market, particularly in New Zealand, has been rather strong lately, combined with a seemingly unstoppable increase in TIL's share price, why would there be a need for a 'major player' such as the Chairman to sell now (especially so much of his holding!?) Maybe he wanted to build a new deck ;) although it looks to be a pretty expensive deck... I'm surprised the alarm bells aren't ringing louder!Just a random thought .... Geoff Ross not like other 'major players' ...he is a venture capitalist growing selected small companies into big companies and I am sure he always has other opportunities coming along the pipeline. For him the thrill will be in the chase and he will have made plenty of money from his involvement with TIL. He is confident in the right people doing a great job so he takes a little profit.

Just like all the landlords that take equity out of an investment to put into other things.

Different to the likes of say Rod Drury who is Xero & always going to be.

[Jinx]

Another day of Til taking big hits.

[winner69]

Another day of Til taking big hits.

Hey jinx - you need to try harder than this if you want to spread panic to get the price down

I reckon it e up for the day

[Southern_Belle]

Another day of Til taking big hits.

5 weeks ago you could have picked them up for $2.91 ......big hits or volatile speed wobbles on an upward trend. Time will tell.

[Jinx]

Hey jinx - you need to try harder than this if you want to spread panic to get the price down

I reckon it e up for the day

Hahaha fair call, Just pointing out how much of an effect the chairmen selling has had

Happy holder

[muss1]

21,000 shares have changed hands. Wouldn't exactly call today a sell off.

TIL has had an incredibly consistent pattern over the last 9 months or so. A jump, a pull back, flattening/slow accumulation and then another jump.

The chairman selling isn't worth worrying about. He has so much skin in the game still. People sell for many reasons, but only ever buy for one reason. Have you ever taken profits after a 600% gain? I'd imagine most would have started doing so much earlier.

[Jinx]

Hey jinx - you need to try harder than this if you want to spread panic to get the price down

I reckon it e up for the day

Well called. Ignore my future comments freaking out about a small dip.

[boysy]

Couldn't help myself bough some more on the dip today. Still think tis got plenty of legs to run, profitable at present but the real kicker will be the synergies from cs company and further trilogy expansion with ecoya and goodness expansion as cream on top.

[boysy]

A bit more buying interest has returned to TIL good to see it up ever do marginally on better volume. Very little liquidity on both the buy (especially) and sell side.

[boysy]

Strong finish to the day up 12 cents on fairly strong volume. Still think the FY results will suprise the market to the upside in around 2 months.

[Yoda]

Yes your quite right ;), and appreciate your kick up the butt. but great discussion , and i appreciate he has plenty more. I appreciate this isnt the same, but when the directors of PEB sold out , i ignored it, and let it slide well down. Im Probably still mad at myself for that.


Oh well, now CEO sells 100,000. And no I haven't looked any further, except it says she sold them all.
Happy for another lashing though :-)
I don't have time to check further .....

[winner69]

Oh well, now CEO sells 100,000. And no I haven't looked any further, except it says she sold them all.
Happy for another lashing though :-)
I don't have time to check further .....

I guess these are the 100,000 options exercised a few weeks ago (at 60 cents)

If so Just part of her remuneration from a year or so ago

Got to pay the bills somehow .......and a new deck with a spa on it

And you deserve a decent lashing

[LAC]

http://trilogyproducts.com/investors/news/til-issue-of-trilogy-international-unlisted-options/

Would that mean the 100k will be renewed each year for 4 years?

[winner69]

http://trilogyproducts.com/investors/news/til-issue-of-trilogy-international-unlisted-options/

Would that mean the 100k will be renewed each year for 4 years?

Thats how it reads

Keep her incentivised eh

[forest]

So on todays announcement it says under,

Summary of other relevant interest after acquisition or disposal.

N/A.

I would say this announcement is incorrect, if the CEO is expecting to get the shares replaced as part of her remuneration then this should be acknowledge.

What do others think?

[boysy]

Still ticking along up 4 up on low volume

[Well Endowed]

I wonder if Trilogy have considered a Bee/Manuka line? Would be incredibly popular in China.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/small-business-sme/news/article.cfm?c_id=85&objectid=11617736

[Jinx]

SP taking sizeable hits every day for a week now. Anyone thinking about buying a lower SP before the May report?

[boysy]

I'm buying at these levels great time to buy off the impatient all things point to a bumper annual result in the next ~6 weeks. The forward looking sales expectations will be the real eye opener.

[couta1]

I'm in for a punt with 10k shares at $3.27, doesn't look far off its bottom anyway so what's a few cents.

[sb9]

I'm in for a punt with 10k shares at $3.27, doesn't look far off its bottom anyway so what's a few cents.

Good on ya couta1, I like the past few days trading pattern albeit down stock becoming more active and liquid.

[golden city]

Had a good time with Orion health reasonly

[boysy]

Bit of strength to end the day, still recon in 6 weeks Mr market will be suprise with the result but more importantly the outlook for the next 12 months. Any further depreciation against the AUD or USD should flow through additional currency gains.

[boysy]

Well here you have it the first broker report from CLSA with a buy recommendation and $4.15 target price. can't say I had heard of CLSA but it appears to be a major player based out of HK.Very detailed 45 page valuation put out last week on the 06/04/16.


http://trilogyproducts.com/investors/assets/Uploads/News/160331-TIL-initiation-copy.pdf

A bit more about CLSA

CLSA (Credit Lyonnais Securities Asia) is Asia's leading equity brokers and investment groups focused on institutional broking, investment banking and asset management to corporate and institutional clients around the world.[1][2]

Founded in 1986, CLSA (Credit Lyonnais Securities Asia) has its headquarters in Hong Kong and offices or representatives in 15 cities across the Asia-Pacific region, as well as Amsterdam, Boston, Chicago, New York, London and San Francisco. The parent company is CITIC Securities, China's largest brokerage.

Unlike most of its competitors, CLSA is a research-driven agency broker.[3] It’s known for its annual investor forums, and reports and analysis that ‘tells the story’ (a legacy of the journalism background of its founders).



https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/CLSA

[boysy]

What do people make of such a detailed report from a seemingly major overseas brokerage firm ? Gave the report a brief read they appear to have done some serious homework and provided useful insights. Interesting til made no market release regarding the report being provided ( especially considering it appears til assisted CLSA putting the report together)

[IAK]

Thanks for that Boysy. Interesting, they state that the major capacity constraint could be the supply of rosehip oil (-20-30% of input costs). Apparently, certified organic rosehip seeds come from wild roses mainly sourced from Chile and Lesotho (Africa), can't they grow these in NZ or Australia?

[boysy]

Clearly this issue was well foreseen in advance by TIL as per link from last year they get first right of refusal from a Lesotho producer in exchange for assistance to purchase an oil press

http://www.pharmacytoday.co.nz/business-time/2015/september-2015/21/trilogy-secures-new-rose-hip-oil-supplier-as-demand-grows.aspx

[boysy]

Price target of 4.15 represents a 25% premium to the sprit this morning. Good to see the SP increasing this morning and the 3.35 line being chipped away.

[sb9]

Price target of 4.15 represents a 25% premium to the sprit this morning. Good to see the SP increasing this morning and the 3.35 line being chipped away.

Great link there boysy on TIL from CLSA, thanks for sharing.

[boysy]

I'm still confused as to why TIL would not provide a nzx release confirming broker coverage I know other forms have done this following a first or new broker reports of firms.

[sb9]

I'm still confused as to why TIL would not provide a nzx release confirming broker coverage I know other forms have done this following a first or new broker reports of firms.

I guess its not mandatory under NZX disclosure clauses, hence one less thing to clutter.

[winner69]

Price target of 4.15 represents a 25% premium to the sprit this morning. Good to see the SP increasing this morning and the 3.35 line being chipped away.

I think CL playing it safe and going the conservative way

Their $4.14 a bit lower than my $4.43 DCF (but about the midpoint of my low growth / base case scenarios)

Looking at their forecasts pretty much in line with my model - which gives me even more confidence.in my numbers

Only upwards from here - even more so if boysy's expectations eventuate, even that would make CL redo their sums.

[boysy]

Not long to wait until FY results released and guidance given. Pleasing to see some buying interest bidding up the price at 3.38 at present.

[Jinx]

Not long to wait until FY results released and guidance given. Pleasing to see some buying interest bidding up the price at 3.38 at present.

After the valuation has come to light, on top of an already highly anticipated FY result, I would expect nothing but upwards momentum until the results.

[boysy]

Things certainly appear to be aligning as winner pointed out the growth expectations assumed in the valuation do appear conservative. How these will compare with the companies outlook will be known in the next 6-8 weeks.

[couta1]

Accumulating at $3.27 this morning after it went to $3.38 a day or so ago, might not have too many more opportunities at this level for too much longer.

[LAC]

Accumulating at $3.27 this morning after it went to $3.38 a day or so ago, might not have too many more opportunities at this level for too much longer.

Closed at the same, still looking reasonably priced even if they get 14mill EBIT (we know they will exceed that) so EPS will exceed 0.16 I think after the announcement it will be interesting to see where the SP ends up. I am picking $3.92

[boysy]

That's a decent bump in so LAC let's hope it eventuates sooner than later

[janner]

Accumulating at $3.27 this morning after it went to $3.38 a day or so ago, might not have too many more opportunities at this level for too much longer.

Excuse me for what I have missed..

Why ????