Gold

[JBmurc]

just want to let everyone know SKOL paid his $100(I haven't spent it yet but will do soon should get 3-4 good bottle of red) hope SKOL stays ST long term as I like winning bets looking forward to winning the new Silver bet for 2011

As for Gold/Silver at the moment IMHO I'm not at all worried with the correction and if anything I'm happy to see it take a breather as it show we are far from hitting stage three where PGM's go ballistic

Fact::No fiat currency has ever survived the USD which makes up over 70% of the world's unbacked fiat currencies held worldwide is on borrowed time it's day of reckoning is coming

[shasta]

just want to let everyone know SKOL paid his $100(I haven't spent it yet but will do soon should get 3-4 good bottle of red) hope SKOL stays ST long term as I like winning bets looking forward to winning the new Silver bet for 2011

As for Gold/Silver at the moment IMHO I'm not at all worried with the correction and if anything I'm happy to see it take a breather as it show we are far from hitting stage three where PGM's go ballistic

Fact::No fiat currency has ever survived the USD which makes up over 70% of the world's unbacked fiat currencies held worldwide is on borrowed time it's day of reckoning is coming

Good ann out today on CCU, silver production of 2.5m/oz a year starting Q4 2011, Market Cap @ $90m is a bit rich for me

Still think Silver will outperform gold this year & make new highs

[denpal]

The HUI has gone up by 590% in 10 years by my calculation and referring to the ASX website the XGD chart only goes back to 2006 when it was reconfigured, so I'm not sure where you get your numbers from.
I might have missed out as you say but I'm not ever likely to allocate more than what I would call a rational amount to any one asset. If goldbugs are dumb enough to listen to the likes of Richard Russell then more fool them.
I'm surprised the SEC hasn't become involved with such scandalous and outrageous claims.

The HUI bottomed in November 2000 at 36. Today it is 517. That is 1,336%. In November 2010 it was 550 that is 1,427%.

[Pumice]

unusual, I would have thought Gold would have gotten a boost with Japan having its credit rating downgraded.

[JBmurc]

Good ann out today on CCU, silver production of 2.5m/oz a year starting Q4 2011, Market Cap @ $90m is a bit rich for me

Still think Silver will outperform gold this year & make new highs

well guess it all depends on Silver prices going forward shasta I'm guessing their costs be round $10per oz so say on current Silver AUD prices they be looking at
$17oz profit so at 2.5moz production $$42.5million now if your as bullish on silver as myself I'd say CCU will within a few years have EBIT north of current market cap

[shasta]

well guess it all depends on Silver prices going forward shasta I'm guessing their costs be round $10per oz so say on current Silver AUD prices they be looking at
$17oz profit so at 2.5moz production $$42.5million now if your as bullish on silver as myself I'd say CCU will within a few years have EBIT north of current market cap

I read in one of CCU's presentations that with Pb credits the cash costs would be $A6/oz

[Huang Chung]

Also have DOW & TOL, check them out.

Geez Skol, you should have stuck with gold......

http://www.smh.com.au/business/train-wreck-for-investors-20110127-1a673.html

http://hfgapps.hubb.com/asxtools/imageChart.axd?s=DOW&pi=Stock&ct=3&tf=D6&ovs=XJO&si=Index&tima1=20&tima2=20&bi=9&bima=0&comt=index&ds=DOW&dovs=XJO&val=1&stmp=2011012719493318


http://hfgapps.hubb.com/asxtools/imageChart.axd?s=TOL&pi=Stock&ct=3&tf=D6&ovs=XJO&si=Index&tima1=20&tima2=20&bi=9&bima=0&comt=index&ds=TOL&dovs=XJO&val=1&stmp=20110127195004267

[Skol]

Sold DOW but still own TOL, bought at $5.71, so looks like I'm still ahead. Put some dosh into ALS and BOL, a couple of losers that might do well fixing the flood damage.

When gold crashes I'll take a look.

[JBmurc]

I read in one of CCU's presentations that with Pb credits the cash costs would be $A6/oz

ok so actually now looking at a likely EBIT=$50mill+ looks like a good buy when they have how many years of reserves 10yrs/ resource base 20yrs (what I recall reading somewhere )

-Looks like a good buy IMHO

[Huang Chung]

Sold DOW but still own TOL, bought at $5.71, so looks like I'm still ahead.


....just like most holders of gold and gold stocks ;-)

PS...like the flood recovery story also....pickup up CDD and NOD as both should be likely beneficiaries.

[elZorro]

JB, did you get to see the movie of you and Skol back a page or two? Can't have been that bad..EZ.


Skol: I guess I just don't understand, only the goldbugs have got the big picture, the rest of us are uneducated peons.

I have my old dictionary here, a peon is a serf (Mexico), or a foot soldier, a native constable, or a messenger(India). I didn't know I didn't know that :)

[JBmurc]

JB, did you get to see the movie of you and Skol back a page or two? Can't have been that bad..EZ.



I have my old dictionary here, a peon is a serf (Mexico), or a foot soldier, a native constable, or a messenger(India). I didn't know I didn't know that :)

no which one is that

[elZorro]

no which one is that

I spent hours on this (not really).. Skol and JB have a chat (http://www.xtranormal.com/watch/8285034)

US debt continues to mount up: (http://blogs.reuters.com/james-pethokoukis/2011/01/26/as-u-s-debt-goes-up-obamas-concern-goes-down/)

[JBmurc]

I spent hours on this (not really).. Skol and JB have a chat (http://www.xtranormal.com/watch/8285034)

US debt continues to mount up: (http://blogs.reuters.com/james-pethokoukis/2011/01/26/as-u-s-debt-goes-up-obamas-concern-goes-down/)

yeah like skols ten gallon hat real texas style

[Skol]

yeah like skols ten gallon hat real texas style

Looks like gold's tanking, and to keep you guys amused here's Richard Russell's latest newsletter, looks like this dude is a perennial contrarian warning. The last para. says it all.

Hey JB, when it's all over can I have some of your shiny stuff for my magpie trap?

www.businessinsider.com/richard-russell-get-out-of-dollar-assets-2011-1

[stevo1]

Looks like gold's tanking, and to keep you guys amused here's Richard Russell's latest newsletter, looks like this dude is a perennial contrarian warning. The last para. says it all.

Hey JB, when it's all over can I have some of your shiny stuff for my magpie trap?

www.businessinsider.com/richard-russell-get-out-of-dollar-assets-2011-1

Skol looks like you are right (well for the moment anyway) enjoy your strut in the sun.
But remember the struting rooster one day can be the feather duster the next.

[lakedaemonian]

Skol, I just don't get the piss-take on Gold......

Let's see:

The US is running a multi-trillion dollar a year deficit with no end in sight...and the idea of slashing a "mere" $500 billion portion of the deficit is considered beyond the realm of possibility

That deficit is just about bang-on 10% of GDP

For some reason the big shots in the EU find it necessary to remind us that the Euro is "a stable currency and a good store of value". If it were, would they need to constantly remind us?

Japan downgraded

Food riots spreading...again...Tunisia fell; Egypt is at risk with the US sitting on the fence; Yemen; Algeria; Jordan; who's next?

Property prices throughout Asia-Pacific are a gigantic balloon

Russia's CB plans to accumulate 100 tons of gold a year(I guess exchanging that energy for another store of value more reliable and inflation resistant than certain bits of paper)

Some high growth developnig economies like Brazil and South Korea adding capital controls to prevent hot money from flying in and out.

How exactly is any of this bad for Gold?

What I see is a flight to safety....which has historically been the US Dollar....and as a TEMPORARY "least bad" option for big volume liquidity...it's analogous to the zombies congregating at the mall in Day of the Dead.....because it's what they do...until they are enticed to do something else.

Temporary US Dollar rally....we could see a couple over the next few of years.

I've been in gold/silver pretty heavy since 2005(check my post history)......and the cash I've been accumulating in the last couple of years I'm looking at buying again from about here down ($1300 on down, and $26 or so, on down)...the more it drops, the more I'll buy.......

I don't care what the price of gold/silver is at December 31st 2011....I'm more concerned with what it will be in 5 years.

Nothing moves up in a straight line....this is but a minor or major buying opportunity depending on how far gold/silver drop.

Eric Janzsen believes we could see some SERIOUS volatility(up and down, still trending up) in gold(and we can presume silver) prices...and I have yet to find anyone with a better documented track record than Eric.

If he's personally got 30% in gold(he's been in since 99, and bumped up to 30% approx 2 years ago), then I'm trying to target that as well.

What are the alternatives?

Cash? I'm there...and constantly looking to add to existing commodity positions

Shares? NZ market is an embarrassment

Bonds? I see a lot of "dead man walking" globally

Property? Not a chance...unloaded all of my commercial a couple years back...not getting abck in that space for a while

Private businesses? I already own a few successful ones....valuations are dropping....good values coming up....for someone in a different position might be a good time to be shopping around

Commodities? I'm there Gold/Silver/Ag/Uranium/Energy in as much physical as possible(I'm deeply concerned about manipulation and government influence/control of futures markets) and looking to add more on dips.

Gold is no where NEAR a bubble.....why?

Because of the above(and lots more evidence to support it) as well as the fact the taxi drivers I listen to when flying all over the place haven't yet told me to start investing in gold yet, like they told me to invest in real estate just before and during the RE crash......and like when they told me to invest in dot.bombs in 99/00.

Most of the M&A about Gold in the west revolves around Tupperware-like Gold Parties for people to SELL at a fraction of spot.....

When the taxi drivers start telling me to BUY gold.....I'll be SELLING

Until then, I've got little to add....wake me in 5 years.

[JBmurc]

Looks like gold's tanking, and to keep you guys amused here's Richard Russell's latest newsletter, looks like this dude is a perennial contrarian warning. The last para. says it all.

Hey JB, when it's all over can I have some of your shiny stuff for my magpie trap?

www.businessinsider.com/richard-russell-get-out-of-dollar-assets-2011-1

na the silver bullion is part of my retirement plan so no selling for 20-30yrs by with time it will be round what gold is today...
you might just have to like the masses buy your own my neighbour also a long term Silver bull rang perth mint to order some more 1kg bars there reply "they are out and don’t know when they will be restocked…"was the answer he got..

[Skol]

my neighbour also a long term Silver bull rang perth mint to order some more 1kg bars there reply "they are out and don’t know when they will be restocked…"was the answer he got..

And lakedaemonian says there's no bubble, the Perth mint's run out of silver and you can buy gold from vending machines. Silver up 80% last year, and there's no bubble?
For some strange reason goldbugs think that the 'bubble' will be when there's a vertical spike. All bubbles are different, could well be that the bubble's been pricked, we'll have to wait.

Could be though, XGD down over 3%, NCM still falling and OGC's received a speeding ticket in reverse.

XGD now 1% off the 200 day MA.

[JBmurc]

And lakedaemonian says there's no bubble, the Perth mint's run out of silver. Up 80% last year, and there's no bubble?
For some strange reason goldbugs think that the 'bubble' will be when there's a vertical spike. All bubbles are different, could well be that the bubble's been pricked, we'll have to wait.

Yes time will tell in the mean time Silver is being consumed faster that it can be dug out of the ground(recycling filling the gap)-- resource discovery is just keeping pace to replace the growing world demand, a bleak outlook for the Silver users if you trust the US Geological numbers....10-15yrs
then you have investors like myself,mates,neigbours etc buying up are long term bullion holdings as retirment investments much like one would save at the local bank account...yes I don't mind waiting it's alll pretty clear.

[Skol]

Skol, I just don't get the piss-take on Gold......

Let's see:

The US is running a multi-trillion dollar a year deficit with no end in sight...and the idea of slashing a "mere" $500 billion portion of the deficit is considered beyond the realm of possibility

That deficit is just about bang-on 10% of GDP

For some reason the big shots in the EU find it necessary to remind us that the Euro is "a stable currency and a good store of value". If it were, would they need to constantly remind us?

Japan downgraded

Food riots spreading...again...Tunisia fell; Egypt is at risk with the US sitting on the fence; Yemen; Algeria; Jordan; who's next?

Property prices throughout Asia-Pacific are a gigantic balloon

Russia's CB plans to accumulate 100 tons of gold a year(I guess exchanging that energy for another store of value more reliable and inflation resistant than certain bits of paper)

Some high growth developnig economies like Brazil and South Korea adding capital controls to prevent hot money from flying in and out.

How exactly is any of this bad for Gold?

What I see is a flight to safety....which has historically been the US Dollar....and as a TEMPORARY "least bad" option for big volume liquidity...it's analogous to the zombies congregating at the mall in Day of the Dead.....because it's what they do...until they are enticed to do something else.

Temporary US Dollar rally....we could see a couple over the next few of years.

I've been in gold/silver pretty heavy since 2005(check my post history)......and the cash I've been accumulating in the last couple of years I'm looking at buying again from about here down ($1300 on down, and $26 or so, on down)...the more it drops, the more I'll buy.......

I don't care what the price of gold/silver is at December 31st 2011....I'm more concerned with what it will be in 5 years.

Nothing moves up in a straight line....this is but a minor or major buying opportunity depending on how far gold/silver drop.

Eric Janzsen believes we could see some SERIOUS volatility(up and down, still trending up) in gold(and we can presume silver) prices...and I have yet to find anyone with a better documented track record than Eric.

If he's personally got 30% in gold(he's been in since 99, and bumped up to 30% approx 2 years ago), then I'm trying to target that as well.

What are the alternatives?

Cash? I'm there...and constantly looking to add to existing commodity positions

Shares? NZ market is an embarrassment

Bonds? I see a lot of "dead man walking" globally

Property? Not a chance...unloaded all of my commercial a couple years back...not getting abck in that space for a while

Private businesses? I already own a few successful ones....valuations are dropping....good values coming up....for someone in a different position might be a good time to be shopping around

Commodities? I'm there Gold/Silver/Ag/Uranium/Energy in as much physical as possible(I'm deeply concerned about manipulation and government influence/control of futures markets) and looking to add more on dips.

Gold is no where NEAR a bubble.....why?

Because of the above(and lots more evidence to support it) as well as the fact the taxi drivers I listen to when flying all over the place haven't yet told me to start investing in gold yet, like they told me to invest in real estate just before and during the RE crash......and like when they told me to invest in dot.bombs in 99/00.

Most of the M&A about Gold in the west revolves around Tupperware-like Gold Parties for people to SELL at a fraction of spot.....

When the taxi drivers start telling me to BUY gold.....I'll be SELLING

Until then, I've got little to add....wake me in 5 years.

Regurgitated goldbug propaganda lake.

Even when gold was $290 in 1985 there were world crises, but did gold 'go through the roof', 'go to the moon' as goldbugs love to say? No.

There were several major air crashes including one aircraft which was blown up over the Atlantic, terrorist attacks, hijackings, USSR had invaded Afghanistan, the Unabomber was causing mayhem, fighting in Lebanon, atomic tests, Rainbow Warrior sunk, the Brixton Riots, et.al.

Even in 1997 at the height of the Asian financial and currency crisis the price of gold dropped, in December 1997 it was $290, its lowest for years.

Goldbugs remind me of zealous Christian missionaries, only they know the real truth, the real answers to the worlds problems, and if you don't heed them, then you're going to financial hell.

[lakedaemonian]

Regurgitated goldbug propaganda lake.

Even when gold was $290 in 1985 there were world crises, but did gold 'go through the roof', 'go to the moon' as goldbugs love to say? No.

And there's very many reasons for that...not the least of which include the US being a net creditor nation, the baby boomer bubble just entering into their prime earning(and locust like consuming) years, thousands of other reasons....and most importantly Paul Volker's crushing interest rates........the US is now a net debtor, the baby boomber bubble is on the earning/consumption decline, and the US is left with little choice but to fruitlessly attempt to print it's way out of debt.

There were several major air crashes including one aircraft which was blown up over the Atlantic, terrorist attacks, hijackings, USSR had invaded Afghanistan, the Unabomber was causing mayhem, fighting in Lebanon, atomic tests, Rainbow Warrior sunk, the Brixton Riots, et.al.

All insignificant, with only one or two requiring retrospect to graps their insignificance(to this discussion)

Even in 1997 at the height of the Asian financial and currency crisis the price of gold dropped, in December 1997 it was $290, its lowest for years.

I kinda recall the US Dollar in the late 90's being at the very apex of it's power in a unipolar superpower world it owned..which corresponds with the bottom in gold.

Goldbugs remind me of zealous Christian missionaries, only they know the real truth, the real answers to the worlds problems, and if you don't heed them, then you're going to financial hell.

I'm neither a missionary nor a zealot......I prefer to seperate passion and emotion from my investment decisions.....your attempt to portray me as such is incorrect and inappropriate.

The US Dollar(bar the occasional temporary fit of instinctive "flight to safety") is in decline...there is no other currency yet ready to supplant it.

Gold will play a role in transitioning towards "whatever comes next".

If that were untrule, CBs would be divesting rather than increasing their holdings.

Not every CB has acted as stupidly as did Gordon Brown as Exchequer and selling at the bottom.

I very much look forward to the day I sell the majority of my precious metal holdings...I strongly prefer other tangible income producing assets...but to do so in this climate and for the foreseeable future would be foolish....when the taxi drivers start telling me to buy gold(from them)...I'll be sweating my exit points if I haven't already done so.

So I'll continue investing cash from businesses that is in excess to foreseeable needs into liquid commodities on big dips.

My existing holdings(and accumulation on dips) in Precious Metals, Energy, and Ag represent the best means for me to fight inflation, retain my purchasing power, and achieve a risk/reward that beats every other option out there at the moment(bar the private business opportunities which I'm already full of).

Your long-term stance on this thread is quite likely to lead to some embarrassment for you...I hope you'll be around on/off over the next few years....I don't get by as often as I used to, but promise to stop back in on occasion..and will gladly eat my proverbial hat if I'm wrong..hopefully you'll may up as well.

I'm not interested in debating this with you....there's no point.....it would waste our collective time

Good luck with whatever you're doing with your money.....I'm quite happy with how mine has held up in recent years.

[Skol]

Pressure getting to you lake? XGD down 5% today and still going, below the 200 day MA.

[elZorro]

Silver, gold bounce back on brisk buying

Thursday, January 27, 2011, 19:00 [IST]
Mumbai, Jan 27 (PTI)

Silver prices bounced back at the bullion market here today on the back of fresh demand from speculators and stockists despite bearish international cues.

Gold, too, rebounded smartly on emergence of fresh local buying interest as well as investment demand at existing lower level amidst ensuing marriage seasons.


It's a big world out there, some seem to finding a use for gold and silver..the charts always show a dip or pause in Jan/Feb, and the USD PoG has swiftly recovered to $1340 or so overnight.

I don't ever look at the gold volumes, just the price. So I'm pleased (like any goldbug would be) to see bigger volumes traded as the price goes down, and not all of it in negative territory.

[DTB]

[QUOTE=lakedaemonian;334775] ...when the taxi drivers start telling me to buy gold(from them)...I'll be sweating my exit points if I haven't already done so.


This has been happening for quite some time already. Although not from a taxi driver, but a few friends who otherwise wouldn't have a clue about financial markets. Not to mention all the radio advertising spouting the same goldbug rubbish.

The only fundamentals that matter are supply and demand. And we aren't running out of gold anytime soon.

[Phaedrus]

The charts always show a dip or pause in Jan/FebBacktesting the $US Spot gold price over the last 20 years fails to support that assertion, elZ. Here are the months ranked from best to worst - the bottom 4 are in the red - having lost money over the last 20 years! Jan and Feb are, in fact, among the better performing months. Gold "ought" to be doing well at the moment.

Sep
Nov
Jan
May
Dec
Feb
April
June
July
Aug
Mar
October


The USD PoG has swiftly recovered to $1340 or so overnight.Better than that elZ - it recovered to $1347, making a new short-term high..... but that is only part of the story. That $1347 peak was lower than previous short-term peaks. Gold continues to make lower highs and lower lows.

That's a downtrend.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/Gold129.gif

[stevo1]

The bernank option http://www.zerohedge.com/article/xtranormal-cartoon-explains-pomo

[hal]

Backtesting the $US Spot gold price over the last 20 years fails to support that assertion, elZ. Here are the months ranked from best to worst - the bottom 4 are in the red - having lost money over the last 20 years! Jan and Feb are, in fact, among the better performing months. Gold "ought" to be doing well at the moment.

Sep
Nov
Jan
May
Dec
Feb
April
June
July
Aug
Mar
October

Better than that elZ - it recovered to $1347, making a new short-term high..... but that is only part of the story. That $1347 peak was lower than previous short-term peaks. Gold continues to make lower highs and lower lows.

That's a downtrend.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/Gold129.gif

Phaedrus
Thanks for the charts and the information.

Just wondering whether you think this seems like a choppy corrective move down.
I have read that if the highs and lows are overlapping all the time it is not an impulsive move and should reverse at some point.

I know a lot of good trades come from ABC moves off highs. It looks like a pretty good abc correction from the high and hopefully this is the bottom. It has also retraced about 50% of the up move from 1200 odd to 1420.

The action seemed pretty good last night with a move from $1310 to $1347 and then to finish at $1338.40.

Anything can happen from here but I don't think it is all one way.

I would be interested in your opinion.



I am hoping this is the bottom but if not possibly soon.

[trackers]

There's been a lot in the news recently about how the US is going to have to get congress to raise their debt ceiling which is currently at $14.3 trillion . They are currently $14trillion in the hole and have $300bil left.

The Office of Management and Budget forecasts that, by the end of fiscal year 2012, gross federal debt will total $16.3 trillion. Thus, the projected debt will equal 101% of projected GDP.

So the question is, what do you guys think the US is going to do about it? It seems likely to me that:

- Congress will extend the debt ceiling (no brainer)
- US won't default on its debt

But eventually something drastic will have to happen, won't it? I would think that the clear answer here is that the US needs to inflate or die, and if this is the case then silver/gold etc will continue to do well as people seek inflation proof ways to park their wealth. What do you guys think of the situation?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_public_debt

[skid]

or start another war

[rev]

Watched an interview a few weeks ago on ABC and Austan Goolsbee, the chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, got quite snakey when asked if raising the debt ceiling was an option, he was not even going to talk about it saying the world would freak if Congress took this route.

http://www.npr.org/2011/01/03/132594987/obama-aide-dont-play-chicken-with-debt-ceiling

Couldn't find the interview itself, but worth a watch if you can track it down.

[STRAT]

or start another warThat, shameful as it is has worked well in the past as long as there is some hidden treasure to make it all worthwhile. Thing is, Im not sure they can afford one right now. My guess is they will continue on the path of devaluing their dollar and do their best to get others such as China to do the opposite. When they stop printing may well be the time when the current Share Market rally takes a hit but what this will do to for the POG is beyond me. Gold may be seen as a safe haven but seems to me a significant part of Gold appreciation has more to do with the slide of the USD which may also halt when they stop printing.

Someone has a master plan. Just got to be quick to recognise it as it unfolds I guess.

[STRAT]

Hi Strat, I spent a bit more time on this one for you, more motion and sound effects but it's still rough. As per usual, this is tongue in cheek, no offence intended, hope you enjoy having a look. Cheers.

ShortLong St Episode Two: "Strat on Gold" (http://www.xtranormal.com/watch/8286899)I was lookin back through this thread to find a reply I posted to Phaedrus regarding GOR with intentions to thank him for letting me off lightly and to state clearly my post was a tad optimistic and he was once again on the money when I came across this.

I missed it when you posted it EZ and I consider myself privilaged. Not offended at all but if thats me in my lounge on a Sunday morning I usually have the Guitar round my neck. Im lookin forward to one where you get stuck into me.

Oh yeah, no CR. Its all yours

[Jaa]

Well it looks like revolution is afoot in the middle east and good on them to they deserve the west's support.

Tunisia has fell, Egypt is in the hands of its people and Yemen and Jordan are stirring.

Will put a floor under the price of gold for a while.

[Phaedrus]

Phaedrus, thanks for the charts..... just wondering whether you think this seems like a choppy corrective move down. I have read that if the highs and lows are overlapping all the time it is not an impulsive move and should reverse at some point. I would be interested in your opinion.Hal, I am just a humble trend-follower. My systems are all based on what is happening now, rather than what might happen in the future. Any opinions I hold as to future market direction are no better than anyone else's (ie quite useless).

This certainly is a "choppy corrective move down", though, and yes, I agree that it "should reverse at some point". Better than that, I can absolutely guarantee that it will! All trends end sooner or later, but I hold that no-one and no system can predict where or when this will be. Not even Prechter and his Elliott waves.

If forced at gunpoint to reveal my deepest personal thoughts about where Gold is going, I would say "down". It appears to me that Gold is approaching the latter stages of a classical bubble, but I would never, ever admit that here and have zero interest in arguing the point. Officially, I have no view as to the future direction of Gold and restrict myself to monitoring the current downtrend. Who knows how far it will run?

[hal]

Hal, I am just a humble trend-follower. My systems are all based on what is happening now, rather than what might happen in the future. Any opinions I hold as to future market direction are no better than anyone else's (ie quite useless).

This certainly is a "choppy corrective move down", though, and yes, I agree that it "should reverse at some point". Better than that, I can absolutely guarantee that it will! All trends end sooner or later, but I hold that no-one and no system can predict where or when this will be. Not even Prechter and his Elliott waves.

If forced at gunpoint to reveal my deepest personal thoughts about where Gold is going, I would say "down". It appears to me that Gold is approaching the latter stages of a classical bubble, but I would never, ever admit that here and have zero interest in arguing the point. Officially, I have no view as to the future direction of Gold and restrict myself to monitoring the current downtrend. Who knows how far it will run?

Thanks

The part about classic bubble doesn't match with the charts though from what i can see. If you look at pretty well any chart it is a nice steady uptrend with slight pullbacks.

I haven't looked at Gold in different currencies but in USD it looks like a steady uptrend with no parabolic rises yet.


Anyway thanks for replying and we will have to wait & see what happens.

[Skol]

Thanks

The part about classic bubble doesn't match with the charts though from what i can see. If you look at pretty well any chart it is a nice steady uptrend with slight pullbacks.

I haven't looked at Gold in different currencies but in USD it looks like a steady uptrend with no parabolic rises yet.


Anyway thanks for replying and we will have to wait & see what happens.

Looks like a bubble to me, they're all different, this one's been going for 10 years.

For some reason to be a bubble they have to look like the 1980 gold bubble and subsequent crash but it ain't necessarily so.

Lots of goldbugs are waiting for the vertical spike and so-called mania stage but I think they're going to be disappointed. (And poor some of them)

[hal]

Looks like a bubble to me, they're all different, this one's been going for 10 years.

For some reason to be a bubble they have to look like the 1980 gold bubble and subsequent crash but it ain't necessarily so.

Lots of goldbugs are waiting for the vertical spike and so-called mania stage but I think they're going to be disappointed. (And poor some of them)

No just like every other bubble where the price really takes off. This has no signs of that at this stage. Anything can happen but I just don't see it at this stage.

This could go on for years yet but who knows?

[trackers]

Gold stocks in Aus are looking pretty miserable... Here's Standard & Poor's XGD gold index:

http://iforce.co.nz/i/0nk4md4b.rp4.jpg


I also registered with Standard & Poors and downloaded the index constituents, which are (in image format to preserve formatting sorry):

http://iforce.co.nz/i/cwgmtixo.yry.jpg

Going to be an interesting week... I'm monitoring XGD, XMM, XEJ and if the situation doesn't improve will be dumping most of my mining stocks

[Jaa]

You people need to spend more time with your eyes away from charting programs.

There is a revolution going on in the country that has always been the key to the Middle East!!!

POO & POG are going to go up as soon as the markets open thereby breaking the short term downtrends.

[trackers]

You people need to spend more time with your eyes away from charting programs.

There is a revolution going on in the country that has always been the key to the Middle East!!!

POO & POG are going to go up as soon as the markets open thereby breaking the short term downtrends.

And what happens when viva la revolution is resolved? What did the Iranian Revolution do to precious metals last year?

Yes I expect POO and POG will rise this week, thankfully... But then what?

[Skol]

I expect the trouble in the ME to be a flash in the pan. If anything the USD will strengthen, limiting the appeal of gold.

The goldbugs say the USD is doomed but it's times like this that proves otherwise.

[Hoop]

You people need to spend more time with your eyes away from charting programs.

There is a revolution going on in the country that has always been the key to the Middle East!!!

POO & POG are going to go up as soon as the markets open thereby breaking the short term downtrends.

Jaa ...POO (Brent Crude) hasn't been in a short term downtrend..

[Jaa]

And what happens when viva la revolution is resolved? What did the Iranian Revolution do to precious metals last year?

Yes I expect POO and POG will rise this week, thankfully... But then what?

Errr Iran didn't have a revolution, that requires regime change.

Some Islamic markets are open on Sunday as their weekend is Friday/Saturday. They are already reacting.

Dubai Shares Fall Most Since May on Egypt Unrest, Pacing Mideast Decline
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-30/dubai-shares-plunge-most-in-year-lead-gulf-drop-on-egypt-risk-protests.html

My reading of the situation is that things will come to a head in a couple of days. As disorder and choas continue to escalate, Mubarak will have no choice but to ask the military to crack down on the protestors. Whether they side with him or the newly formed National Coalition for Change led by Mohamed ElBaradei is the question.

[trackers]

Errr Iran didn't have a revolution, that requires regime change.



http://www.nfscars.net/forum/images/smilies/images_smilies_facepalm.gif ...exactly

[Skol]

From this weekends WSJ.

JANUARY 29, 2011. Is Gold's Golden Era Over?
By BEN LEVISOHN
Gold certainly is cheaper these days, having fallen 5.7% in 2011 alone. But investors who rush in now could be setting themselves up for disappointment.

Classically a hedge against inflation, gold morphed into a hedge against economic collapse during the financial crisis and rallied strongly last year as fears mounted of a double-dip recession in the U.S. and a debt crisis in Europe. Those fears have largely eased, though gold did rally Friday on turmoil in the Middle East. By and large, investing in gold is once again a bet on global inflation.

While there are signs of higher costs for raw materials in the U.S. and abroad, prices might not be rising fast enough to justify gold's current price of $1,340.70 an ounce, say some strategists. Emerging-market central banks, meanwhile, are raising interest rates to tackle rising prices.

"For gold to rise there needs to be demand for a safe haven, a weak U.S. dollar and inflation fears," says Pierre Lapointe, a strategist at brokerage firm Brockhouse Cooper. "We don't see any of these in 2011."

The price of gold largely reflects investor sentiment rather than fundamental demand, which is one reason it kept rising for most of the past 10 years. But speculators already have cut their bullish bets on gold to the lowest level since 2009. Heavier selling, in turn, could beget still more selling.

Exchange-traded funds are particularly worrisome: Big redemptions there could force enormous amounts of the metal into the marketplace, further pressuring prices. The amount of gold held by ETFs has dropped by about 2.8% since the beginning of the year, according to Brockhouse Cooper, bringing it to the lowest level since June.

.Another recent source of buying—by gold producers unwinding hedges used to protect profits against price fluctuations—also has nearly come to an end. That is because most of the hedges were put in place at much lower price levels, forcing companies to sell well below market prices and damping profits. On Jan. 13, AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. said it had closed its hedge book, becoming the last of the major gold companies to do so.

"Financial demand propelled gold higher over the past few quarters," Mr. Lapointe says. "We doubt more is on the way."

How far could gold fall in the short term? Technical measures suggest that gold's current price is close to its near-term "support" level—the price at which investors, attracted by a perceived bargain, are expected to rush in. If it falls below $1,320 and stays there, the next price where buyers would be expected to cluster would be near $1,280.

Over the longer term, too, the case for gold seems less compelling, say some analysts. While the metal has traditionally been seen as a buffer against runaway inflation and a collapsing dollar, at these prices gold may have less value as an insurance policy than investors might think.

Take inflation. From 1968—when investors started to price in the possibility of the U.S. dropping the gold standard—to 2001, the price of gold rose 5.6% a year, while the Consumer Price Index gained 5.1% annually. That hasn't been the case recently: Since 2001 gold has surged 18.8% annually, while the CPI has risen just 2.3%.

To restore their historical relationship, inflation would have to rise by 8.3% a year for the next 20 years to justify current prices. If inflation were to rise by its average since 1968 of 4.7%, gold would have to drop 3.6% a year for the next 20 years, according to Tim Courtney, chief investment officer at Burns Advisory Group. "This latest gold craze is way overdone," he says.

Even assuming the price of gold now includes a premium for protection against a falling dollar, a collapse in the stock market and inflation, gold still looks expensive, says Vadim Zlotnikov, chief market strategist at Alliance Bernstein Research. He calculates that the current price reflects fears of a 20% decline in stocks, a 20% drop in the dollar and an inflation rate above 4%, based on historical performance. (The inflation rate is currently 1.5%.) If investors think any of those outcomes is likely, gold may still be a buy. Otherwise, they are better off waiting for a lower price.

"Gold is an insurance policy, and the cost of insurance has been going up," Mr. Zlotnikov says. "A decline to $1,100 would be reflecting a more-benign market environment."

Of course, critics have been saying gold has been expensive for years, and past pullbacks have been buying opportunities for much of the past decade. During 2010 alone, gold twice dipped more than 7% before rallying to new highs.

On Friday, gold rose 1.8% as protests in Egypt turned deadly, destabilizing global markets. If the turmoil there spreads, or new fears of European defaults, raging inflation or U.S. economic deterioration emerge, gold could spike further.

So what's an investor to do? If you have a large position in gold, now may be a good time to take profits, says John "Launny" Steffens, founder of Spring Mountain Capital, an investment-management firm in New York.

Yet despite gold's high cost, Mr. Steffens says it still has a place in a portfolio and that investors should devote 5% to 7% of their portfolios to the metal to hedge against the unexpected. "Just don't expect it to go up 30% every year," he says.

[Skol]

We hear from the goldbugs that the USA's falling to pieces, and there's mass unemployment, but no one wants to be a truck driver, not even for $60-$90k a year. Sounds like NZ. Probably not cool enough.
From the latest Barrons magazine.

Preview | SATURDAY, JANUARY 29, 2011 Driver Shortage Looms: Missing Road Warriors
By ROBIN GOLDWYN BLUMENTHAL | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR

Trucking jobs are now going begging. What will that mean for the industry
Whatever happened to "Keep on trucking"? While roughly 14.5 million Americans remain unemployed, a driver shortage is developing in the trucking industry.

"A lot of fleets I talk to have been increasing pay to hold on to drivers they have, and hopefully attract new ones," says Bob Costello, chief economist at the American Trucking Associations, an industry group. Although he can't estimate what the current shortfall is, in 2005, when there was a shortage of 20,000 drivers, the group predicted it would grow to 100,000 by 2015.

But during the recession, industry volumes fell by a whopping 25% from late 2007 to mid-2009, Costello says, resulting in massive layoffs. That trend has reversed as the driver population ages and younger folks resist signing on for such a difficult lifestyle. Annual pay, however, can run from $60,000 to $90,000.


The recession put significant pressure on trucking volumes, resulting in massive layoffs and a driver shortage.
.The shortage is "only going to get worse as the economy heads up," says Doug Waggoner, CEO of Echo Global Logistics (ticker: ECHO), which matches haulers with customers. In the past month, Waggoner, who sees a steady recovery, says he has heard 15 ads for drivers on satellite radio, compared to none a year ago. Some trucking firms are even offering to pay for driver training.

Another possible constraint? Proposed rules that would further limit the amount of time that commercial truckers can spend behind the wheel. That, and higher fuel prices, could pressure costs, and the economy.

"Transportation prices are going up," says Waggoner. Gentlemen, start your engines.

[elZorro]

Skol's article:
"A lot of fleets I talk to have been increasing pay to hold on to drivers they have, and hopefully attract new ones," says Bob Costello, chief economist at the American Trucking Associations, an industry group. Although he can't estimate what the current shortfall is, in 2005, when there was a shortage of 20,000 drivers, the group predicted it would grow to 100,000 by 2015.


Add to this, a higher fuel cost, and surely freighting of goods is going to get more expensive. This will add to inflation, but the argument is that gold should drop in price while this is happening?? Or that US citizens will take each job as it appears? I think they've become too soft, too well paid. Our own generation Y is also expecting well paid jobs behind a computer or desk, no-one should be forced to actually build or manufacture anything, or get their hands dirty. OK, it's not black and white, but there is a trend that way.

This thread is one of the most important on the ST site, I think. Here we observe flights to safety, the swapping of stocks for gold and silver and vice versa, and guess what direction the economies of the world are heading in. Where gold goes, affects most stocks, and other assets like property. I filled up the tank in the weekend, petrol is now at $2 a litre, more if you want to pay for super grade. There's a lot of energy in a litre of petrol, it's worth $2, it has to be treated with the respect of a dwindling resource. And an ounce of gold is also worth $1340, just try extracting some off the back section.

[STRAT]

Im very worried about my Gold Stocks now.
Got up last night about 4am. Couldnt sleep. Turned the box to Triangle to see if Aljazeera was on to see if I could get an update on North Africa.

Instead there was an add on with some bullion trader pedalling Gold. Thats a skip and a jump from Taxi Driver tips.

[elZorro]

Im very worried about my Gold Stocks now.
Got up last night about 4am. Couldnt sleep. Turned the box to Triangle to see if Aljazeera was on to see if I could get an update on North Africa.

Instead there was an add on with some bullion trader pedalling Gold. Thats a skip and a jump from Taxi Driver tips.

Now I'm worried Strat, previously you were ambivalent about gold, now you see a bubble? I saw your post about the video, couldn't understand the shorthand. Still looking for ammo for a more ruthless version but you're fairly easygoing aren't you?

[Phaedrus]

The Middle East crisis appears to have had no dramatic effect on Gold.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/Gold21.gif

[Skol]

EZ,
Lots of immigrants to the USA would be willing to get their hands dirty for $60/90k. There's lots of jobs here in NZ but the locals don't want them. Fact.

Life can't be that bad if you're willing to turn down that kind of dough. I keep reading about the 'poor' but I'm also reading about employers who'd like to obtain some reliable english speaking labour.

[denpal]

The Middle East crisis appears to have had no dramatic effect on Gold.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/Gold21.gif

Let's see what happens it's now right on 1340 this afternoon on a minor resistance downtrend line. I also see a reverse H&S on the chart centred on 28 January.

[STRAT]

Now I'm worried Strat, previously you were ambivalent about gold, now you see a bubble? I saw your post about the video, couldn't understand the shorthand. Still looking for ammo for a more ruthless version but you're fairly easygoing aren't you?Hi EZ.
Im fairly hard to upset so get stuck in. I dont mind a good laugh at my own expense.

CR I assume you mean by shorthand. Copy write on Shortlong St.

I will let you know if any Cabbies suggest I buy some nuggets ;) but Im not sure I was ever sitting on the fence. I think I posted a chart with sell on it a while ago.

[STRAT]

I think I posted a chart with sell on it a while ago.I did..

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?7449-Gold&p=332486&viewfull=1#post332486

[elZorro]

I did..

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?7449-Gold&p=332486&viewfull=1#post332486

Turns out that was a fairly accurate chart there Strat. About that time I'd reduced my OGC holdings already, and have bought back in recently, despite strident warnings from the TA devotees who have invaded this thread..;)

Have no fear, goldbugs are fanatical, but not so stupid that we will ignore the other side of the argument :cool:.

Here's Skol's mate Charles Wyatt on Gold: I think it makes sense..



Minesite Weekly Roundup 24th – 31st January 2010

Weekly Review

We live in uncertain times and it is therefore natural for investors to have some gold in their portfolios as a hedge against the unknown. The danger at the moment comes from two sources.

First, there are the threats to sovereign debt faced by many European countries. These have not lessened though they have disappeared from the headlines.

Second there is the growing furore in the Middle East which could affect the stability of the Suez Canal and oil supplies to the West. The oil price is now pushing at US$100/barrel and gold is back in the reckoning again.

The fallacy of having a raft of countries ranging from Greece to Germany tied to a single currency is now exposed. The strengths of their economies could not be further apart and several are semi-viable only because of the grace of God and the bail out fund of 750 billion euros which has been scratched together by the European Union and the IMF. This is merely a painkiller, not a cure and the time will come when the German people tire of giving financial paracetamols to weaker members.

The creation of a single currency had obvious appeal to Europe's politicians at the time it seemed a natural sequence for countries in a Common Market. So much were they attracted to this idea that common sense deserted them. It didn't desert the French people, however, as when the franc was switched into the euro in January 2001 the queues outside banks in Marseille, where I was at the time, were many times longer for those wanting to switch into physical gold than those taking the conventional route. The taxi driver at Marseilles St Charles station at the time said that it was nonsense to value the French economy on the same basis as Spain, Italy and Greece. He held the last of these countries in particular contempt as being a net taker from, rather than contributor to the Common Market.

Old ladies queued right round the block to take home something they could put under their beds which would hold its value better than this new, untested currency. And hold its value gold certainly did as that was the time when Labour's new hero Ed Balls had just finished selling off our gold at US$275/oz. The Financial Times was the Official Euro Partner of the European Central Bank at the time so its coverage of the launch was effusive. Now that it looks like falling apart Lionel Barber, its editor, must be hoping that no one notices that the Pink 'Un backed a bum horse yet again.

France, of course, is one of the stronger economies in Europe but even it finds life a strain when locked in a currency which is, to all intents and purposes a deutschemark. Imagine what it is like in the weaker countries where the outlook is for rising unemployment, falling wages and an exodus of talent. The only way to return to the status quo without chronic budget and trade imbalances is to leave the single currency, either voluntarily or otherwise.

So there is Europe in a mess, and what about the Middle East? Tunisia kicked off after Christmas and the pro-Western government of Lebanon was toppled at roughly the same time to bring in Syrian control. Then came Yemen but most Americans missed its importance, as they have no knowledge of geography, as it sits in a crucial position at the southern end of the Red Sea which leads to the Suez Canal and is a crucial oil route. They did wake up, however, when flames were seen on the streets of Cairo as Egypt is one of only two Arab countries that have signed peace treaties with Israel.

Israel is treated as a spoiled child by America and it can do no wrong even when it makes life for Palestinians living hell. The future could become much more precarious for Israelis if these changes of government continue and President Obama will have to tread gently in his interventions if he is not to set off a chain reaction in the region. If the actions were to spread to oil-producing nations like Iran or Saudi Arabia that could heighten the geopolitical fears and send gold and crude oil prices skyrocketing.

A good time, therefore, for the Financial Times to suggest that we have seen the best of the gold price. A journo called Jack Farchy, not known as an expert on gold, says this expectation is based on the view that the economic recovery in the US will start to gather steam, forcing the Federal Reserve to tighten policy and making yields on bonds and equities more attractive. "As the economy improves you're going to see real interest rates move up, and that's going to cap the upside for the gold price," says David Greely, an analyst at Goldman Sachs in New York.

"We think it is prudent for gold investors to begin to prepare for gold prices to peak." Typically there is no reference to what is going on in the rest of the world, but Lionel Barber is probably happy with this as he spent a considerable part of his career in the States.

By Charles Wyatt


Remember some note that PoG is related to the energy prices? Petrol at the pumps is at a dollar high here. That $2 litre of petrol I mentioned a post or two ago has 35MJ of energy in it. If you burnt it all in air, you'd get 9.7kWHr of heat. If you purchased that amount of electrical power for a heater at home, it would cost about the same, $2.00. Here's the funny thing..the Carnot Efficiency of a combustion engine means the motor can only put out at the absolute max, 37% of that power, the rest is lost as heat. The average car tootling down the road has blown away 80% of the energy you paid top dollar for, while the heater at home will give you back almost all of the heat energy you paid for. I would guess mining excavators and trucks are far less efficient than cars.

[Skol]

Shares often predict the direction of the underlying commodity.
Here's a random selection of gold shares and they're all heading south.

NAV,NCM,FML,RMS,GOR,OGC,SBM,AVO,RSG.

[shasta]

Shares often predict the direction of the underlying commodity.
Here's a random selection of gold shares and they're all heading south.

NAV,NCM,FML,RMS,GOR,OGC,SBM,AVO,RSG.

With Gold still above $US1300/oz, im sure they are still very profitable, cash costs across the industry havent sky rocketed

[elZorro]

Shares often predict the direction of the underlying commodity.
Here's a random selection of gold shares and they're all heading south.

NAV,NCM,FML,RMS,GOR,OGC,SBM,AVO,RSG.

Er, Skol, I think you'll find that in the last two days OGC is heading North again. I suggest you buy some for a quick profit..as long as gold keeps moving in the same direction. BTW, US$ not looking good this morning, should end up being good for the gold price. Cheers..

[Skol]

No thanks EZ, I'm looking at a different commodity, cows. I've got a few and the price of them have gone up 19% in the last 3 weeks so I'm looking at agricultural commodities, gold's over.

America had 132 million cattle in 1975, now it's 91 million, the lowest since 1958.
Low herd numbers, high slaughter rates, fires, drought, feed and corn prices mean one thing, beef prices going north.

[elZorro]

No thanks EZ, I'm looking at a different commodity, cows. I've got a few and the price of them have gone up 19% in the last 3 weeks so I'm looking at agricultural commodities, gold's over.

America had 132 million cattle in 1975, now it's 91 million, the lowest since 1958.
Low herd numbers, high slaughter rates, fires, drought, feed and corn prices mean one thing, beef prices going north.

Yep, can't argue with that, a fairly certain 20% gain, on top of liveweight gain. Good bit of rain lately helps. I'm hoping OGC does a bit better than that over the next week or so, I have some averaging down to cover :mellow:

[STRAT]

Couldnt help myself :eek2::lol:

[newbietrader]

No thanks EZ, I'm looking at a different commodity, cows. I've got a few and the price of them have gone up 19% in the last 3 weeks so I'm looking at agricultural commodities, gold's over.

America had 132 million cattle in 1975, now it's 91 million, the lowest since 1958.
Low herd numbers, high slaughter rates, fires, drought, feed and corn prices mean one thing, beef prices going north.

Do you intend to sell when the price is high (bubble)?

[elZorro]

Couldnt help myself :eek2::lol:

Dear Strat, you should not use the RSI(14) indicator on a trending stock:). Try a moving average, trailing stops etc. This is gospel, see the OGC thread..;)

Apart from that, I quite agree. Gold is a buy..

[STRAT]

Dear Strat, you should not use the RSI(14) indicator on a trending stock:). Try a moving average, trailing stops etc. This is gospel, see the OGC thread..;)

Apart from that, I quite agree. Gold is a buy..haha.
The RSI was only there to show the divergence on the way up ( a warning of things to come ) but good on ya. I just checked out the OGC thread and I see you are sucking it all in. It will only be good for ya I reckon.
The setting was from the previous chart I was looking at. Dont have Gold in a permanent format.

Way too early to call it a buy. I was just being cheeky :D

[elZorro]

haha.
The RSI was only there to show the divergence on the way up ( a warning of things to come ) but good on ya. I just checked out the OGC thread and I see you are sucking it all in. It will only be good for ya I reckon.
The setting was from the previous chart I was looking at. Dont have Gold in a permanent format.

Way too early to call it a buy. I was just being cheeky :D

Yes, I think you TA people agree on that, here's a slow loading video (http://broadcast.ino.com/education/gold2111/?blog)saying the same thing - wait a bit longer to be sure, as it could go either way.

[Hoop]

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/devilsmiley.jpg

[Skol]

Do you intend to sell when the price is high (bubble)?

I certainly do, but cows aren't exactly the kind of commodity that generate the excitement that attracts the goldbugs.

[elZorro]

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/devilsmiley.jpg

Hi Hoop, I might pick up some TA ideas slowly and reluctantly, as I'm still a bit doubtful about some of the trigger points. I haven't spent any cash on good software either, and that doesn't help. I'm all for making some money out of shares eventually..

[stevo1]

I certainly do, but cows aren't exactly the kind of commodity that generate the excitement that attracts the goldbugs.

But Skol cows can die or get injured or sick .you cant just put them in your car and take them to your local butcher and get cash for them.you have to outlay heaps on land so they can eat,last but not least how do you put them under your bed or bury them in the garden for safekeeping?are they going to be around in ten years time.its a bubble skol get out now before the Sh$% hits the paddock.

[Skol]

But Skol cows can die or get injured or sick .you cant just put them in your car and take them to your local butcher and get cash for them.you have to outlay heaps on land so they can eat,last but not least how do you put them under your bed or bury them in the garden for safekeeping?are they going to be around in ten years time.its a bubble skol get out now before the Sh$% hits the paddock.

Cows put on weight and breed which is the dividend, they're useful, enjoyable and generally trouble free. What's the enjoyment in gold, it's shiny, does it multiply? Can't eat it either.

You wanna taste the meat here, nothing like it, homekill 2 weeks ago. Not like the crap from the butcher.

[stevo1]

"they're useful, enjoyable" now if I was a true Aussie I could probably comment on that but they not sheep so I will refrain but if you really want some entertainment maybe you could post that on an aussie chat site

[Skol]

In the latest Barrons magazine, the goldbugs poster boy, Marc Faber bangs on about gold and says "You don't want to own gold in America where expropriation is a possibility as happened in 1933".
And "You shouldn't have your $1billion dollars in the American banking system where the government might take it away".

And on CNBC today, he reckons "Bernanke is lying, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is lying".

Is the guy coming unstuck? Maybe it's time for Marc to throw in the towel and head for a retirement village.

[skid]

Dont know about bureau of labor but I dont think I would bet the farm on Bernanke always telling the truth
Seems to me a good idea to have a small % of assets in gold for insurance

[elZorro]

Cows put on weight and breed which is the dividend, they're useful, enjoyable and generally trouble free. What's the enjoyment in gold, it's shiny, does it multiply? Can't eat it either.

You wanna taste the meat here, nothing like it, homekill 2 weeks ago. Not like the crap from the butcher.

Hi Skol. I think this argument about cattle is interesting: they can be compared to gold. Gold is hard won from the earth, and your output from the farm, carcass meat, is also hard won. You have all that free energy from the sun pouring in, but if you measure the energy contained in the carcass meat on an annual per hectare basis, overall, then the efficiency of that process is 0.001% or so. It's much lower than you'd think. So hold onto your land, because if photovoltaic solar panels reduce to about $1 per watt (they're at $3 or so now, say 15% efficient), then you'd make a lot more return trading as a power generator, selling to the grid. I think that's why overseas interest in our land is on the rise, there are many uses for it.

Meanwhile, people value your meat output very highly, certainly very high on an energy basis. That price has been set by precedence, history, an understanding of how hard it is to produce that food in most climates, and realising that suitable land for farming is reducing annually. It's also set by the farmers, who will simply get out of stock if a return is not made.

[Skol]

If the POG goes up, you can order machinery, do overtime and produce more gold instantly.

Cows take years to breed and most of the breeding stock in the USA has been sent to the works.

[elZorro]

If the POG goes up, you can order machinery, do overtime and produce more gold instantly.

Cows take years to breed and most of the breeding stock in the USA has been sent to the works.

Wait a minute Skol..you could always buy more stock at auction and bring them back, within 2-3 days of a decision. If NZ needs more stock to cash in on a high meat payout, farmers will hold back more of their bobby calves and yearlings etc. So a 1-2 year delay. Miners have to pre-order big machinery nearly a year in advance, have it made and shipped halfway round the world. They'll also generally have to explore, assay, and later tunnel or remove overburden to get at extra deposits. This could easily take 2 years as well.

[Skol]

And I'll pay heaps more, feeder calves are at record prices in the USA.
In the meantime, gold pays no dividend - period. One of the several reasons Warren Buffet won't touch it.

[elZorro]

And I'll pay heaps more, feeder calves are at record prices in the USA.
In the meantime, gold pays no dividend - period. One of the several reasons Warren Buffet won't touch it.

9 replies for gold bears (http://www.kitco.com/ind/Mickey/jan252011.html)includes this:





4. Gold Pays No Dividend
It’s true, gold doesn’t pay a dividend. It has no earnings. It’s not an investment. There is no way to value it using traditional measures of stocks and other financial assets.
Gold’s benefits comes during periods when real dividends and income-producing assets’ yields are so low, gold is a much better alternative. These periods where gold outperforms income-producing assets is when real interest rates (interest minus inflation) are negative.
Consider this, a long-term U.S. Treasury bond currently pays about 4% per year. Inflation, as tracked by rising cost of living and excluding housing price declines which have kept official inflation numbers down, is greater than 5%.
As a result, the real rate of interest is a negative 1%. In real terms, it costs 1% a year to hold the long-term Treasury bond even though it yields 4%.
This is why investors turn to gold when interest rates are negative and gold prices are driven higher by negative real interest rates.
Gold pays no nominal dividend or income. But it does retain its purchasing power while other income-producing assets decline.

[JBmurc]

And I'll pay heaps more, feeder calves are at record prices in the USA.
In the meantime, gold pays no dividend - period. One of the several reasons Warren Buffet won't touch it.

No but he did buy up a heap of silver bullion to later sell it for a tidy profit

[upside_umop]

There is a flaw in that argument Ez.

Gold still doesn't produce an income and it also has holding costs. Make sure you take them into account when comparing against real interest rates.

The second flaw is make sure you take the 'real' interest rates. Why exclude housing? To make the numbers look better? Yeah, that would do it considering housing has the highest weighting on the CPI (~40% if I remember rightly)! Housing is a real cost of living...so don't exlcude it.

[JBmurc]

Gold still doesn't produce an income and it also has holding costs--well if you pay someone to hold it for you otherwise holding it yourself costs only as much us you want to spend on a safe etc

[elZorro]

There is a flaw in that argument Ez.

Gold still doesn't produce an income and it also has holding costs. Make sure you take them into account when comparing against real interest rates.

The second flaw is make sure you take the 'real' interest rates. Why exclude housing? To make the numbers look better? Yeah, that would do it considering housing has the highest weighting on the CPI (~40% if I remember rightly)! Housing is a real cost of living...so don't exlcude it.

Hi UU, some might not have great gold holding costs, and percentage wise it would be a small effect. But I think anyone renting in NZ has had a rental increase, because landlords can't subsidise extra costs with capital gains at the moment. In any case, fixed mortgage payments are still up there.

I haven't looked carefully at any of the other bear responses, might save them up..

I took a while to write this post because someone in Hong Kong rang (true story) to sell me gold options leveraged 100:1. Of course I'm very tempted and I trust this person 100% to look after me.

What does the panel think?

[Skol]

Gold still doesn't produce an income and it also has holding costs--well if you pay someone to hold it for you other holding it yourself costs only as much us you want to spend on a safe etc

What about insurance?

[JBmurc]

What about insurance?

well if you want to insure it yes it will cost you a few dollars depending on how much you hold

[Skol]

well if you want to insure it yes it will cost you a few dollars

Any insurance brokers on the thread?

[Phaedrus]

Gold is at an interesting point in its downtrend.

See how the tentative trendline (red) has now been confirmed (at blue arrow). I never cease to wonder at how trends can be so precisely linear.

Note the ongoing series of lower highs.

See how the current price is right on a level of previous support (red arrow). It will be interesting to see if this support continues to hold.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/GOLD23.gif

[elZorro]

How about that? a $30 rise in just 2 hours: gold miners see some massive investments being made. The market was certainly ready to act on any PoG increase.

[trackers]

Gold is at an interesting point in its downtrend.

See how the tentative trendline (red) has now been confirmed (at blue arrow). I never cease to wonder at how trends can be so precisely linear.

Note the ongoing series of lower highs.

See how the current price is right on a level of previous support (red arrow). It will be interesting to see if this support continues to hold.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/GOLD23.gif

Amazing how quickly things change! Be interesting to see how it closes

http://iforce.co.nz/i/jvbpvqwv.skr.jpg

[Lego_Man]

Ber****e has confirmed that growth and inflation are still below target levels, meaning QE is still a go.

[Skol]

Rang my insurance broker and queried about storing PM at home. They were quite intrigued that anyone would store precious metals in the house so it's not something that's common. The cost would be on a case-by-case basis but would probably have to be stored in a safe in an area with a burglar alarm.
The charge for jewellery is around 1% of the value per annum.

[stevo1]

Ber****e has confirmed that growth and inflation are still below target levels, meaning QE is still a go.

"Helicopter" Ben still at it. Lies lies and more damded lies http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/bernanke-shrugs-off-inflation-fears/story-e6frg8zx-1225999903533 the inflation genie is well and truly out of the bottle,obvoius to all and sundry when at the supermarket or buying building materials.fuel,rent ,rates,commodities hard and soft.
The POG also assisted by the middle east.Smoke and mirrors on the inflation gauges to get desired results only a fool would put any faith in Benanke

[JBmurc]

Rang my insurance broker and queried about storing PM at home. They were quite intrigued that anyone would store precious metals in the house so it's not something that's common. The cost would be on a case-by-case basis but would probably have to be stored in a safe in an area with a burglar alarm.
The charge for jewellery is around 1% of the value per annum.

Well my broker stated a 300k contents insurance with NZI which would cover my silver bullion cost per Ann $900 if I install burglar alarm it would be cheaper

Good to see PGM break the downtread onward an upwards

[Skol]

How about that? a $30 rise in just 2 hours: gold miners see some massive investments being made. The market was certainly ready to act on any PoG increase.

Keep looking for the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow EZ.
Incredible Charts say if it fails this test the next one is $1220.

[Skol]

"Helicopter" Ben still at it. Lies lies and more damded lies http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/bernanke-shrugs-off-inflation-fears/story-e6frg8zx-1225999903533 the inflation genie is well and truly out of the bottle,obvoius to all and sundry when at the supermarket or buying building materials.fuel,rent ,rates,commodities hard and soft.
The POG also assisted by the middle east.Smoke and mirrors on the inflation gauges to get desired results only a fool would put any faith in Benanke

A goldbug conspiracy theory.
If Bernanke's lying he's going to jail, fact is he's far more intelligent than 99.9% recurring than gold bugs.

[trackers]

fact is he's far more intelligent than 99.9% recurring than gold bugs.

http://cw2designs.com/blog/wp-content/gallery/face-palm/facepalm013.jpg

[evilroyrule]

A goldbug conspiracy theory.
If Bernanke's lying he's going to jail, fact is he's far more intelligent than 99.9% recurring than gold bugs.

skol, although im sure the others arent at all bothered, when you degenerate your debate (if you can call it that, more like a broken record) to insulting others and personal remarks, you really lose all credibility. stick to the facts if you want to debate the merits, but dont go all personal. you immediately undermine any valid points you may have.

[upside_umop]

Well, that is a trendline break if I ever saw one. Perhaps it's still on the up?

What's all this talk that Bernanke is a criminal? He's done quite well in my book. Steveo, before hanging him out to dry...see if you can find out how much money has been 'evaporated' by the US housing market.

1% to store gold at your house? Add that back to the 'real interest rates' then. Then take away your costs of selling, liquidity premium etc etc. Remember the 'Five hidden costs of gold' (http://www.smartmoney.com/investing/economy/5-hidden-costs-of-gold/)

[elZorro]

Keep looking for the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow EZ.
Incredible Charts say if it fails this test the next one is $1220.

Actually Skol, I'm just looking to break even with my investments at this stage, that would be a good start :mellow:. But a lot of TA work has been done on the recent gold charts, and the resistance points for gold moving up were generally quoted as 1345 or 1350. So as both of these are exceeded, there should be a pressure of previously on-the-fence investors that will probably keep it going for a bit.

[corran]

Rang my insurance broker and queried about storing PM at home. They were quite intrigued that anyone would store precious metals in the house so it's not something that's common.

interesting... so where do all the millions of gold-bugs fueling this bubble store their gold then I wonder... perhaps maybe this bubble/mania is not so widespread as some would make out....

[hal]

interesting... so where do all the millions of gold-bugs fueling this bubble store their gold then I wonder... perhaps maybe this bubble/mania is not so widespread as some would make out....

Exactly.

I think there are very few people in on this rise. The Gold price has been talked down the whole way. I am pretty sure it is popular and well known in Asia but I don't know of any of my friends who know about Gold.

As a matter of fact if I try to get people in conversation about it they change the subject saying they can't see what it is useful for and therefore can't see the value.

No way is it a bubble yet.

[elZorro]

Strat: both the USD$ basket and the US$gold price went up overnight. So gold's price should be more noticeable on other markets.

[upside_umop]

So when people start to tell you why it is useful, that will be when it is in a bubble?
I think the reason asians are in on it, is because they are uneducated about it's true worth. They are speculating that they can flip it off to someone else higher.

[hal]

So when people start to tell you why it is useful, that will be when it is in a bubble?
I think the reason asians are in on it, is because they are uneducated about it's true worth. They are speculating that they can flip it off to someone else higher.

I think they might not be as lazy as westerners and they may have done some research on Golds historical role.

Also they most probably are better savers than us and why not save in something real such as Gold.

I am pretty sure they are going to have the last laugh.

[Hoop]

While their is a TA focus on this thread..I shall write what my current thinking is atm...
One of the biggest gripes from Non-TA is that everything seems easy in hindsight...

OK Lets look at this post as one form of TA in progress using Trends S&R and chart pattern.

As life is always in a state of flux, an "event" could occur and alter any chart landscape nothing is 100% accurate (perfect world)..I think I'm lucky if I can get +70% accurate and 70% is my area of success these days. This 70% accuracy means in the long run I make more money than I lose.

Chartists view charts in different ways and sometimes a chartist's perception makes them see a different formation in progress than say another chartist. Only when a formation is completed that we would 99% agree.

ATM.. I am watching and perceiving a complex H&S in progress...I could be wrong and this H&S maybe a figment of my imagination so I watch the chart unfold day by day to either confirm my perception or discard that idea and move on to the next possible formation. So while is possible formation unfolds I watch key price areas (see black circles) and become cautious.

The chart I have drawn below is a "possible" H&S pattern viewed by me... a more complex one Head + 2 shoulder formation...the second shoulder (S1) is not yet formed..I am looking at this recent rise ATM as perhaps the start of S1 and if it is true the price should top out at around $us1380 -1390 area...so caution at this 1380 -1390 area rather than optimism should be your behaviour...and watch for sell signals...

If the progressing H&S pattern is real I see a rally to about 1380 -1390 then retrace to test its minor supports and the all important dotted second neckline [N1] (approx 1300)... if it breaks the neckline it is confirmed H&S and this is very bearish as it then has a good chance to drop and test the 1155 primary support line.............

If the scernario from now on sees a continued rise and POG rallies on past 1430 then it is not a H&S pattern or triple top and the Bull rallies on so I would become optimistic (bullish) again and this post and chart becomes irrelevent. :)

Of interest:...when looking for chart trend reversals the Bollinger bands are useful these bands squeeze up when forecasting a possible trend reversal ...see the trend reversal at Xmas time and note the absence of any squeezing ATM

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/Gold04022011.png

[hal]

So when people start to tell you why it is useful, that will be when it is in a bubble?
I think the reason asians are in on it, is because they are uneducated about it's true worth. They are speculating that they can flip it off to someone else higher.

The useful point is actually that it is rare and is a store of wealth. This seems to be backed up by the recent buying in Europe when there was widespread panic there.

good luck

[Skol]

skol, although im sure the others arent at all bothered, when you degenerate your debate (if you can call it that, more like a broken record) to insulting others and personal remarks, you really lose all credibility. stick to the facts if you want to debate the merits, but dont go all personal. you immediately undermine any valid points you may have.

I'm not bothered what you think, fact is goldbugs present some of the outrageous conspiracy theories imaginable, and to assert that Bernanke is a liar without the facts is preposterous to say the very least.

[upside_umop]

The useful point is actually that it is rare and is a store of wealth. This seems to be backed up by the recent buying in Europe when there was widespread panic there.

good luck

Refer back to the Tulip theory. At its peak, you could buy an average house with two tulip bulbs - that was its value. Because 'it just was.'

In the words of Gordon Gekko: "Speculation is the mother of all evil."

[Skol]

The useful point is actually that it is rare and is a store of wealth. This seems to be backed up by the recent buying in Europe when there was widespread panic there.

good luck

No one knows what it's worth. Gordon Brown sold tonnes of gold between $256 and $296 an oz. Now the Chinese (and others) are paying 5 times that for it.

Why? Why are they buying it near the top for decades, doesn't make sense.

[Skol]

The useful point is actually that it is rare

A goldbug fallacy, more gold was mined last year than any previous year in history, 2652 tonnes from memory.

[trackers]

Thanks for your charts Hoop, very interesting!

[hal]

Refer back to the Tulip theory. At its peak, you could buy an average house with two tulip bulbs - that was its value. Because 'it just was.'

In the words of Gordon Gekko: "Speculation is the mother of all evil."

I can see where your coming from.

Tulips had a long history of being rare and as being part of the monetary system.

Not

[upside_umop]

I can see where your coming from.

Tulips had a long history of being rare and as being part of the monetary system.

Not

Ok, how about salt? It meets both your criteria. They 'had' but don't anymore. Same as gold.

[hal]

Ok, how about salt? It meets both your criteria. They 'had' but don't anymore. Same as gold.

I don't know what you are talking about.

There is plenty of salt that is why you buy it in packs for $2. I would hardly call that rare.

[upside_umop]

I don't know what you are talking about.

There is plenty of salt that is why you buy it in packs for $2. I would hardly call that rare.

According to you, gold has value because it had:
-A long history of being rare, and;
-Been part of the monetary system.

I'm saying, that salt had the same characteristics. It doesn't anymore. Just like gold.

Gold is not rare, and it makes up a very little part of the global financial system. If you think we are going back to the gold standard, buy a shotgun and some good boots as that is the only time you will need it. I.e. When it's back to cowboys and indians.

[hal]

According to you, gold has value because it had:
-A long history of being rare, and;
-Been part of the monetary system.

I'm saying, that salt had the same characteristics. It doesn't anymore. Just like gold.

Gold is not rare, and it makes up a very little part of the global financial system. If you think we are going back to the gold standard, buy a shotgun and some good boots as that is the only time you will need it. I.e. When it's back to cowboys and indians.

Yeah sure. I will go out and buy a shotgun.

I think I will just keep on investing in good quality Gold shares and see how that goes.

[Skol]

http://video.ft.com/v/775971001001/Gold-tops

[Phaedrus]

Hal, may I suggest that what you really want is one of these. (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?6952-NZSX50-Good-News!&p=318735#post318735)

[hal]

Hal, may I suggest that what you really want is one of these. (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?6952-NZSX50-Good-News!&p=318735#post318735)

Thanks Phaedrus. We are all having a bit of fun. This can be a bit boring trading shares.

Good luck to all

[elZorro]

http://video.ft.com/v/775971001001/Gold-tops

Skol- interesting video once it loads up. I'm confused, I thought TA people were negative about gold, they generally are on this thread anyway.. and I'm unsure what the producer thinks about gold, maybe the idea was to present both sides. He was a bit unfortunate that gold spiked up just after the video was posted to the web. I'm all for gold following the 200 day MA, that would be great. Another take-home comment from the video, 'TA is like alchemy', yep, I like that one :eek2:

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10995075/1/gold-prices-stuck-in-neutral.html

Anyway, gold shouldn't collapse just yet, the maths equation(s) said it would last until about April (see earlier posts).

[stevo1]

This from Robin bromby (The Australian) http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/its-all-systems-go-for-gold/story-e6frg9ex-1226000069703

"Look at Chinese gift giving if you want to see a trend that is going to propel gold demand and price.

It’s traditional at Chinese New Year to give presents of cash in red envelopes. No doubt millions (maybe even a billion) of Chinese still did that this time. But the reports from Beijing say many have switched to giving small bars of gold instead. Apparently the gold dealers produced small bars engraved with a rabbit image, which seems a great marketing idea. Anyway, the news is that dealers were largely cleaned out of stock
.
China is now gaining on India as the world’s leading gold importer. The astonishing factor about this development is that China is also the world’s leading miner of gold. That tells you something about the head of steam the yellow metal has built up with the Chinese; after all, in normal times one of the biggest producers would also be one of the leading exporters just as South Africa and Australia have been."

[Skol]

This from Robin bromby (The Australian) http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/its-all-systems-go-for-gold/story-e6frg9ex-1226000069703

"Look at Chinese gift giving if you want to see a trend that is going to propel gold demand and price.

It’s traditional at Chinese New Year to give presents of cash in red envelopes. No doubt millions (maybe even a billion) of Chinese still did that this time. But the reports from Beijing say many have switched to giving small bars of gold instead. Apparently the gold dealers produced small bars engraved with a rabbit image, which seems a great marketing idea. Anyway, the news is that dealers were largely cleaned out of stock
.
China is now gaining on India as the world’s leading gold importer. The astonishing factor about this development is that China is also the world’s leading miner of gold. That tells you something about the head of steam the yellow metal has built up with the Chinese; after all, in normal times one of the biggest producers would also be one of the leading exporters just as South Africa and Australia have been."

An excellent example of herd instinct. Did the Chinese herd give lots of little gold rabbits or rats or whatever the year after the great 1980 gold crash?

Aaah, no.

[newbietrader]

Mexico getting rid of USD...

http://www.thepeoplesvoice.org/TPV3/Voices.php/2011/02/03/mexican-government-successfully-sheds-th#more16184

[corran]

An excellent example of herd instinct. Did the Chinese herd give lots of little gold rabbits or rats or whatever the year after the great 1980 gold crash?

Aaah, no.

Aaah... it was illegal for chinese to own gold or silver prior to 2002. Now the chinese government is encouraging it's citizens to buy gold.

The herd arent the ones buying gold. The herd are working away, putting money into a savings account when they can and assuming that our way of life (our consumption and debt based economic model) will continue as is without problem ad infinitum!

[STRAT]

Aaah... it was illegal for chinese to own gold or silver prior to 2002. Now the chinese government is encouraging it's citizens to buy gold.

The herd arent the ones buying gold. The herd are working away, putting money into a savings account when they can and assuming that our way of life (our consumption and debt based economic model) will continue as is without problem ad infinitum!As Herds go thats a biggin

[Skol]

I expect gold to resume its inexorable march south soon.
The 1980 gold crash was not a vertical spike, it dropped from $850 to $620 the climbed back to $700 for about 2 weeks then fell to $500 over 6 weeks.

[Hoop]

http://video.ft.com/v/775971001001/Gold-tops

This video was crap..a sub standard effort from the FT business Editor. I used to have this view once

I was a pure FA medium / long term investor up until 1998. It took me 20 years to understand the concept of TA and trust it....and that TA was just a graphic portrait of historic Human trading behaviour nothing more.
TA has a strong effect in day trading but over years and decades...Nah!

Chart formations which are repeated over and over again throughout history creates some sort of forward prediction. A bit like your mate warning you about this agro guy, when he shuffles be aware, when he get red in the face be careful, when his left eye twitches DUCK.
Prediction often comes true when you can read constant repeated historical behaviour.

Below is the famous 650year Silver chart measured in 1998 dollars (real value).

I wonder if the silver investors back in the year 1450 when the silver price was $850 (measured in 1998$) could ever comprehend that silver was going to start a 500 to 600 year long downtrend and in 1992 the price will be $4.74...I doubt it.

Hoops view on gold is it has a better chance going up than down in the long term...however we don't know for sure as our human minds can not comprehend the long term future without referring to the immediate past... as this silver chart demonstrates.

The chart shows some spooky points...even the "Hunt Brothers Event" couldn't break the downtrend but it touched it...amazing... huh.

Also of interest is the Gold/Silver Ratio ..the pale yellow line showing a secular pennant formation (not drawn in on chart) which shows a very long term rise in ratio prediction.

ERROR ON CHART The real price of silver 1344 to 1998 (1998 is wrong) more like present day 2010

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/650year-Silver-Prices.gif

[elZorro]

This video was crap..a sub standard effort from the FT business Editor. I used to have this view once..


Hi Hoop, I guess I have 15 more years of information to digest then..:)

That's a neat chart, I hadn't seen that before. I just found this data on the relative abundance of silver to gold: (http://kontentkonsult.com/blog/2006/05/silver_is_five_times_more_rare.html) 5.88 to 1.

If silver was perceived to be just as valuable as gold by weight, it should be $US229 an ounce right now, not US$29.

I wonder what your silver chart would look like if it was compared with energy prices. A low value for many materials mined from the ground coincided with cheap energy (water hydraulics, later oil). Longer term, that might not be a given.

[JBmurc]

just shows how undervalued Silver is ..and some believe it won't increase in value "yeah right"

[elZorro]

Posted by Hoop: I was a pure FA medium / long term investor up until 1998. It took me 20 years to understand the concept of TA and trust it....and that TA was just a graphic portrait of historic Human trading behaviour nothing more. TA has a strong effect in day trading but over years and decades...Nah!

Hoop, I appreciate your advice that some TA understanding would speed up the process of turning a consistent profit on the sharemarket. I have been looking at TA style posts for a few years, it's starting to make some sense sometimes.

Part of the communication problem is that not all posters use smilies :mellow:
So to avoid confusion, I've listed the ones that I use, with my version of their meanings..

None at all means I'm tired, bored or my shares aren't going very well..
:) Straight up, happy, well done, etc
:mellow: Slightly unsure
:( Unhappy, not broken
:mad ;: I expect something to be done about this
:cool: Pleased with my research
:D Not used often, shares going very well
:confused: I'm confused
:eek2: I'm pulling your leg, I expect a post back in similar vein
;) Part truth, part BS

This might help explain


EZ: Another take-home comment from the video, 'TA is like alchemy', yep, I like that one :eek2:

-because I know that TA people take their craft seriously ;). I hope to catch up with you for a beer sometime :).

[Skol]

Don't be too PC EZ, I don't know how to use them but I'm thick skinned, so whatever you say no offense will be taken.

[elZorro]

Don't be too PC EZ, I don't know how to use them but I'm thick skinned, so whatever you say no offense will be taken.

Good on yer Skol, it's just sometimes I'm not so sure with Hoop, and as he lives in Hamilton I should watch my back :eek2:.

I've read all the Barry Crump books, and no matter what he might have been like in person, he never once had a swear word in print.

[corran]

I've read all the Barry Crump books, and no matter what he might have been like in person, he never once had a swear word in print.

I guess you haven't read 'Bastards I have met' yet then Elz? ;)

[elZorro]

I guess you haven't read 'Bastards I have met' yet then Elz? ;)

That's not a real swear word is it Corran?

At my college, one hard-case student donated that book to the school library when he left, so the not-so-well-liked principal had to stand up on stage and announce the gift, and the title.
I guess the principal wasn't without a sense of humour either.

Are you really in the Netherlands? NZ just won the Sevens tournament in Wellington.

[corran]

That's not a real swear word is it Corran?

At my college, one hard-case student donated that book to the school library when he left, so the not-so-well-liked principal had to stand up on stage and announce the gift, and the title.
I guess the principal wasn't without a sense of humour either.

Are you really in the Netherlands? NZ just won the Sevens tournament in Wellington.

:-) like the story about the principal. Yep, I'm in the Netherlands - got up early to watch the sevens but my live streaming sites weren't working :-( oh well at least we won!

[elZorro]

:-) like the story about the principal. Yep, I'm in the Netherlands - got up early to watch the sevens but my live streaming sites weren't working :-( oh well at least we won!

Declan O'Donnell made 3 tries.

Here's someone (part of an advisor firm) who looks very accurate on gold, predicted the spike upwards for last week, against all normal opinion. Thinks Junior miners are the go for 2011. Good..

http://www.theundergroundinvestor.com/2011/01/will-junior-mining-stocks-be-the-investment-of-2011/

[Skol]

Maybe we can ask the Maoris what the POG's gonna be.
A Waitangi Day prediction was "a great earthquake will ravage Wellington". LOL

I normally try to be overseas on this weekend but unfortunately not this year, so it's a TV-less weekend.

[hal]

Declan O'Donnell made 3 tries.

Here's someone (part of an advisor firm) who looks very accurate on gold, predicted the spike upwards for last week, against all normal opinion. Thinks Junior miners are the go for 2011. Good..

http://www.theundergroundinvestor.com/2011/01/will-junior-mining-stocks-be-the-investment-of-2011/

I think he is right as some Gold juniors are already doing very well.

Some of these juniors have very good management and very good projects.

[elZorro]

I think he is right as some Gold juniors are already doing very well.

Some of these juniors have very good management and very good projects.

Hi Hal, do you have any in mind that are on the ASX? I only have OGC on my radar, no time to look at others..
Cheers. :)

[hal]

Hi Hal, do you have any in mind that are on the ASX? I only have OGC on my radar, no time to look at others..
Cheers. :)

I have & like GOR,AUC & DRK

Gor- have leases on approx.5000 sqkm in Western Australia and have been drilling furiously and are currently defining a JORC resource on their Central Bore project. They keep finding new areas of interest. They are doing a mining study on Central Bore & their Atilla trend. A W.A govt agency recently reported GOR'S area to be similar in age & character to the Kalgoorlie terrane. Prior to this it was considered a low grade area. If you want to research GOR you may have to look at Eleckra Mines as Gold Roads(GOR) is a new name.

AUC- Have multiple leases but at the moment are concentrating on their projects near Newmonts Boddington mine. In my opinion they seem to be getting excellent drill results.

DRK - They have projects in Europe(Base metals as well as Gold). They are in existing mining areas. They have partners such as Panoramic resources for these leases. Their new exciting Gold project is in Mauratania(Africa) where they have a lease which continues on from a huge Gold find(over 10 million ounces). They are only at very early stages but have done soil sampling and found gold for I think about another 4km's. They are planning to do drilling this year as far as I know.


For the bigger companies I have & like NCM & KCN.

Newcrest came out with the quarterly report the other day and their production was something like 700,000ounces of production for the quarter. Their cash costs were somewhere around $500 per oz. It looks like they will be making a pretty good profit.

I am no expert( no qualifications at all in this area) on this so just check out company & broker reports to make up your own mind

[whirly]

elZorro - have a look at RSG.

W.

[hal]

elZorro - have a look at RSG.

W.

A couple of other promising ones are TRY & PRU.

[shasta]

Hi Hal, do you have any in mind that are on the ASX? I only have OGC on my radar, no time to look at others..
Cheers. :)

I like GDO in the gold sector, & NAV if they continue to reduce cash costs

PS, Skol no major earthquakes in Wellington so far today

[elZorro]

Many thanks, all of you, I'll have a good look at those.:)
I had EKM for a while, none of the others.

Traders with picks in the NZX competition might have noticed MistyMountain and myself languishing in the bottom part of the table :crying:. We are convinced we have been hard done by because we picked OGC (Vtrader, you're not doing that much better) :eek2:.

Those picks above are likely more impressive, but while OGC might not be so spectacular or predictable these days, I expect it will look a lot better within say 3 weeks (probably a 20-30% improvement between now and 23rd Feb). Anyone is welcome to have a go at me if I'm wrong..;) DYOR etc. Of course PoG will need to be at least stable.

[elZorro]

Think I'll convert to TA for a week: (http://www.commodityblog.com/commodity-prices/flag-pattern-on-gold-chart-%e2%80%94-good-news-for-gold-bulls) Next gold move should be bullish. Note when the text says oil chart, it's the gold chart..hope they didn't get anything else wrong ;)

[STRAT]

Think I'll convert to TA for a week: (http://www.commodityblog.com/commodity-prices/flag-pattern-on-gold-chart-%e2%80%94-good-news-for-gold-bulls) Next gold move should be bullish. Note when the text says oil chart, it's the gold chart..hope they didn't get anything else wrong ;)Strait into candles eh? EZ.

Personally I reckon predicting a trend change with patterns such as flags is a load of bollocks.

[elZorro]

Strait into candles eh? EZ.

Personally I reckon predicting a trend change with patterns such as flags is a load of bollocks.

Can't figure you out Strat, I thought you were a TA guy, you're always posting charts :confused:

Anyway I'll clutch at any method or article that says gold's going higher in the short term, since most of my shares are in mining. I read about that descending flag, it's only wrong as an uptrend indicator 13% of the time. Not 14% or 12%, 13% ;).

At least gold has stuck at about $1350 today. Just read that as it's Chinese New Year, there's not much activity on that market for a week.

[Vtrader]

Think I'll convert to TA for a week
Hi EZ,
a little further from home...
paper traded ASX portfolio +3% last week after fees. TA only.
Few purchases today, let you know how I stand at the end of the week.

Keeping to topic, I anticipate 1250 for gold, perhaps we could influence the market while the chinese are celebrating the new year.
V.

[elZorro]

Hi EZ,
a little further from home...
paper traded ASX portfolio +3% last week after fees. TA only.
Few purchases today, let you know how I stand at the end of the week.

Keeping to topic, I anticipate 1250 for gold, perhaps we could influence the market while the chinese are celebrating the new year.
V.

1250 Vtrader? Is that EWT talking there? I'm hoping for and expecting 1400 again :)

Gold may have bottomed out in late January, and wider view trends are still positive for gold.

http://www.learningandfinance.com/2011/02/07/todays-gold-troy-ounce-price-investing-value-review-silver-per-troy-ounce-contract-notes-copper-market-value-news-commodity-analysis-february-7th-2011-open/

[JBmurc]

1250 Vtrader? Is that EWT talking there? I'm hoping for and expecting 1400 again :)

Gold may have bottomed out in late January, and wider view trends are still positive for gold.

http://www.learningandfinance.com/2011/02/07/todays-gold-troy-ounce-price-investing-value-review-silver-per-troy-ounce-contract-notes-copper-market-value-news-commodity-analysis-february-7th-2011-open/

1400oz USD by mid year above 1500 before the years out watched a doco on RT about the US defence spend and current state of many of the states with many being bankrupt having to cut many services many streets are lined in rubbish many areas have their police,firefighters,hospital staff etc cut in halve trying to reduce debt,People out of work aren't counted as unemployed unless they're looking for a job. Typically during a tight job market, some of the unemployed become discouraged and stop looking most likely the reason why the unemployment rate has dropped that and the increase short term work from the large snowstorm clean-ups

Gold is the money of kings.

Silver is the money of gentleman.

Barter is the money of peasants.

Debt is the money of slaves

Gold this decade-http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=gold+this+decade&aq=f

[Skol]

RT often puts on a lot of nonsense. I've just been watching some of that. Wayne Allyn Root, right?

I'm in the USA at the moment, everthing looks OK to me. Shops busy, interest rates up, airplanes full, DOW up about 75 at the moment, up 25% in the last few months.
There's talk about people and companies taking on more risk, M & A activity, Egypt a non-event, USD up, all bad news for gold and silver.

Might not be too late to dump your silver and get on board from what I've seen on TV today.

[hal]

RT often puts on a lot of nonsense. I've just been watching some of the that. Wayne Allyn Root, right?

I'm in the USA at the moment, everthing looks OK to me. Shops busy, airplanes full, DOW up about 75 at the moment, up 25% in the last few months.
There's talk about people and companies taking on more risk, M & A activity, Egypt a non-event, USD up, all bad news for gold and silver.

Might not be too late to dump your silver and get on board from what I've seen on TV today.

I know when I was in the U.S. in August business was very slow. About 25% of the previous years sales in one of our relations shops. At the moment business is still not firing.

Hopefully the markets will keep going well and they might with all the money being printed.

However it doesn't mean Gold and Silver aren't going to do well and producing gold stocks seem to be making good money at the moment.

[Skol]

I've just finished watching Cavuto debate the US debt on Fox.
It's a problem all right, but during the entire programme there wasn't one mention of the word 'gold'.

The USA had much higher debt/GDP following World War 2.

Unemployment's a problem too, but I wonder how many jobs would be created if everyone over 65 retired? It's not going to happen but up until the last few years people did retire, now they stay until some of them have to be ejected, or die, not very dignified.

[stevo1]

Looks like gold's tanking, and to keep you guys amused here's Richard Russell's latest newsletter, looks like this dude is a perennial contrarian warning. The last para. says it all.

Hey JB, when it's all over can I have some of your shiny stuff for my magpie trap?

www.businessinsider.com/richard-russell-get-out-of-dollar-assets-2011-1

Skol rooster one day feather duster the next.
Tell me if I am wrong but from TA POG looks like inverse head and shoulders on graphs.

This article may well hold the key to the future for gold.Some on this thread are aware of Chindia's role others choose to live in denial of it.
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Chinas-gold-tsunami-pd20110208-DUSTE?OpenDocument&src=kgb

[Skol]

"An inverse head and shoulders".
Did you notice a soaring eagle or a climbing possum? You will if you look hard enough. LOL

[stevo1]

"An inverse head and shoulders".
Did you notice a soaring eagle or a climbing possum? You will if you look hard enough. LOL

Nah not really into TA,most apparent ATM is the plucked rooster falling to a feather duster.although the startled possum in the headlights seems to be a possible trend

[Skol]

Here's an afterthought for you to cogitate on Stevy.
I'm in the US at the moment and there's just been a programme on about cotton, which has soared 160% in the last year from memory.
Being a longtime observer of bubbles this is a cracker which is gonna take a few with it on the way down.

The programme was about cotton farmers in China who are hoarding it, even the house is full of it as they await higher and higher prices. The WSJ mentioned that more US farmland is being allocated to cotton this year as well.

This is going to end in tears, but it'll be very exciting and I'll have no sympathy for the losers.

Yesterday there was mention of gold hoarding in China and they interviewed a few buyers.
The replies to questions were naff to say the least and Chinese buyers are hoarding because it looks pretty and its lucky. What you might call very unsophisticated investors.

Might be unlucky.

[OutToLunch]

There are so many conflicting forces with respect to gold that I won't even try to speculate on it (inflation concerns, money printing and debasing of paper currencies vs. increasing hoarding and signs of a gold 'bubble' forming). However, if the gold price (say) halves from here, you'd expect that a lot of marginal producers would disappear and the supply side would tighten significantly, putting a floor under the price. Question is, what would that floor be. I have no idea. :confused:

[Skol]

We often hear goldbugs banging on about how bad things are and unemployment is chronic, JB Murc for example.

Here's an interesting trivial observation why there's unemployment, something I've noticed after spending decades travelling the world.

A hotel in London originally had white (english) maids, then black (Caribbeans),then black (Africans), and lately white (Russians) as companies hire cheaper and cheaper labour.

A taxi rank in Los Angeles had originally white drivers, followed by black (African-American), then brown, (Pakistani) and lately back (African).

[hal]

Here's an afterthought for you to cogitate on Stevy.
I'm in the US at the moment and there's just been a programme on about cotton, which has soared 160% in the last year from memory.
Being a longtime observer of bubbles this is a cracker which is gonna take a few with it on the way down.

The programme was about cotton farmers in China who are hoarding it, even the house is full of it as they await higher and higher prices. The WSJ mentioned that more US farmland is being allocated to cotton this year as well.

This is going to end in tears, but it'll be very exciting and I'll have no sympathy for the losers.

Yesterday there was mention of gold hoarding in China and they interviewed a few buyers.
The replies to questions were naff to say the least and Chinese buyers are hoarding because it looks pretty and its lucky. What you might call very unsophisticated investors.

Might be unlucky.

I read an article yesterday and it is more an effort to keep up with inflation. If you have your savings in the bank and your government is printing more money then unless the government is creating something to offset this money creation your dollars are worth less.

The commodities have been the safest place to invest because they are going up while the dollars value is falling. Of course if you think they are going to stop printing money it might be risky but there are no signs of it yet.

Of course the dollar hasn't fallen enough yet to compensate for the money printing but that should come in the future.

As you know China's currency is locked to the USD.

I would say it would be a good idea to free float their currency as it may be doing them harm.

Meanwhile commodities are strong but who knows what will happen in the future.

One thing for sure is that GOLD/SILVER & other commodities are in demand so why fight it.

[stevo1]

Here's an afterthought for you to cogitate on Stevy.
I'm in the US at the moment and there's just been a programme on about cotton, which has soared 160% in the last year from memory.
Being a longtime observer of bubbles this is a cracker which is gonna take a few with it on the way down.

The programme was about cotton farmers in China who are hoarding it, even the house is full of it as they await higher and higher prices. The WSJ mentioned that more US farmland is being allocated to cotton this year as well.

This is going to end in tears, but it'll be very exciting and I'll have no sympathy for the losers.

Yesterday there was mention of gold hoarding in China and they interviewed a few buyers.
The replies to questions were naff to say the least and Chinese buyers are hoarding because it looks pretty and its lucky. What you might call very unsophisticated investors.

Might be unlucky.
Talking of cogitating Skoly .
What the hell has cotton got to do with a gold thread?
If you want a thread on bubbles then start a new thread on bubbles
THE $US is the BIGGEST BUBBLE AS IT IS INFLATED AT WHIM AND WITH NO RESTRAINT.
It is amazing how you quite happy to quote from interveiws of a few chinese buyers of gold you SAW ON TV IN AMERICA.How much were they buying?What about the other 1,400,000,995 of them oh hang on forgot to count the Indian population plus 1,150,000,000.
Then of course you have the rest of the world.Who have been conditioned to 9krt gold crap jewllery it is obvious for someone so well travelled that you have no understanding of Asia or the Middle East .
I suspect that you have never been there.
As Confusion say "you can not turn a feather duster back into a looster" Skory and gold might not be unyucky.

[elZorro]

Latest video (http://broadcast.ino.com/education/rareearth/)with the new gold price being shown: JB will be interested, as Silver showed a stronger uptrend than Rare Earths and Gold, in that order.

[shasta]

Latest video (http://broadcast.ino.com/education/rareearth/)with the new gold price being shown: JB will be interested, as Silver showed a stronger uptrend than Rare Earths and Gold, in that order.

Plenty of gold mines coming into production over the next couple of years, but i suspect there will be increased M&A with the juniors, a 100k/oz p.a project was the benchmark, but im expecting more takeovers/mergers to form gold producers in the mid tier category with 200k/oz p.a production.

How many pure/mostly Silver mines are coming into production?

On the ASX, as CXC has now gone what do we have left?

PEM & TRY has Silver but mostly as a by product, CCU & AYN have indicated they will be producing by years end, with ARD & SVL close behind & MAR is still early stage exploration

Most Silver comes from Peru & Mexico, so i'm not surprised Silver is stronger, Gold has had a good run, Silver always lags & has more industrial use than Gold

Theres just not that much of it around & especially on the ASX, there arent too much companies in South America looking for it!

[elZorro]

Plenty of gold mines coming into production over the next couple of years, but i suspect there will be increased M&A with the juniors, a 100k/oz p.a project was the benchmark, but im expecting more takeovers/mergers to form gold producers in the mid tier category with 200k/oz p.a production.

How many pure/mostly Silver mines are coming into production?

On the ASX, as CXC has now gone what do we have left?

PEM & TRY has Silver but mostly as a by product, CCU & AYN have indicated they will be producing by years end, with ARD & SVL close behind & MAR is still early stage exploration

Most Silver comes from Peru & Mexico, so i'm not surprised Silver is stronger, Gold has had a good run, Silver always lags & has more industrial use than Gold

Theres just not that much of it around & especially on the ASX, there arent too much companies in South America looking for it!

I found some data a short while ago Shasta, which showed the relative abundance of silver to gold as 5.88. I think this included silverware? Perversely, people selling gold are now suggesting swapping silver for gold, as the price ratio has closed up to a low point. Depends on your point of view.

I am very interested in seeing if the PoG will at least be stable over the next year or so. This big mining company believes it will.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/41454830

[shasta]

I found some data a short while ago Shasta, which showed the relative abundance of silver to gold as 5.88. I think this included silverware? Perversely, people selling gold are now suggesting swapping silver for gold, as the price ratio has closed up to a low point. Depends on your point of view.

I am very interested in seeing if the PoG will at least be stable over the next year or so. This big mining company believes it will.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/41454830

I certainly believe Silver & Gold will see new highs in 2011 (in $USD), while Skol is in the US, each month another $US75b is being pumped into the economy, maybe he can see the effects of it?

[elZorro]

I certainly believe Silver & Gold will see new highs in 2011 (in $USD), while Skol is in the US, each month another $US75b is being pumped into the economy, maybe he can see the effects of it?

Maybe that's it. I have used the Koru lounge in Wellington using someone else's card, or as a guest, and you can feel fairly affluent. But the priviledge is only as good as your frequent flier points, and the credit on the card. At some stage we all have to produce something of value don't we?

Here's a short paragraph out of an OGC report that Skol will have a go at:



YELLOW v WHITE GOLD
* OceanaGold says its current NZ mines utilise 1110ha which have generated a direct economic contribution of $2.4 million per hectare over the 20 years of operation. According to the company the total dairy industry utilises 2.1-2.2 million hectares and generates an average of $4160 per hectare per annum of economic contribution.
* At this level, the company has calculated it would take dairying 575 years to generate the same amount of economic contribution on the same amount of land that OceanaGold has over the past 20 years.


So per hectare used, economic output from mining is nearly 30x better than dairying or drystock farming. I'll get in first though, a mine might only last 2-3 generations.

[Skol]

Maybe that's it. I have used the Koru lounge in Wellington using someone else's card, or as a guest, and you can feel fairly affluent. But the priviledge is only as good as your frequent flier points, and the credit on the card. At some stage we all have to produce something of value don't we?

Here's a short paragraph out of an OGC report that Skol will have a go at:



So per hectare used, economic output from mining is nearly 30x better than dairying or drystock farming. I'll get in first though, a mine might only last 2-3 generations.

You only have to look at the OGC chart EZ. It's a dead duck.

[Skol]

Talking of cogitating Skoly .
What the hell has cotton got to do with a gold thread?
If you want a thread on bubbles then start a new thread on bubbles
THE $US is the BIGGEST BUBBLE AS IT IS INFLATED AT WHIM AND WITH NO RESTRAINT.
It is amazing how you quite happy to quote from interveiws of a few chinese buyers of gold you SAW ON TV IN AMERICA.How much were they buying?What about the other 1,400,000,995 of them oh hang on forgot to count the Indian population plus 1,150,000,000.
Then of course you have the rest of the world.Who have been conditioned to 9krt gold crap jewllery it is obvious for someone so well travelled that you have no understanding of Asia or the Middle East .
I suspect that you have never been there.
As Confusion say "you can not turn a feather duster back into a looster" Skory and gold might not be unyucky.

Actually i have been to Asia, hundreds of times, since 1974.

Cotton's got quite a bit to do with it. Hoarding's common in China; gold, cotton, copper, anything where there's a whiff of profit. Very unsophisticated investors too, there'll be some drama there, but here's something from yesterday's WSJ.

'Historically gold has moved with the money supply. During the last 30 years, the correlation has been about 69%, according to FactSet data. (A correlation of 100% means 2 indexes move in lockstep all the time; a correlation of -100% means they move in perfect opposition.)
Based on the money supply alone, gold is priced 25% above where it should be.'

And this week's Barron's.

'Gold's recent behaviour shows the danger of investing at record highs. Gold futures have come down nearly 5% since settling at $1422oz on Jan 3, a record, and nearly double the price at the trough in October 2008. It doesn't make much sense to buy in while those who doubled their money, or close to it, are taking it off the table.
Those who argue gold prices will continue to rise point to its growing acceptance among different kinds of investors. However, markets that are deeper and more liquid will attract both buyers and sellers. Financial innovation and increasing sophistication of ETF's means that going short, or betting on price declines, will become just as easy as going long in commodity markets. That is enough to avoid treating the metal as a one-way bet.'

[elZorro]

You only have to look at the OGC chart EZ. It's a dead duck.

'Historically gold has moved with the money supply. During the last 30 years, the correlation has been about 69%, according to FactSet data. (A correlation of 100% means 2 indexes move in lockstep all the time; a correlation of -100% means they move in perfect opposition.)
Based on the money supply alone, gold is priced 25% above where it should be.'



Oh Yeah? OGC was a really big dead duck, or maybe a black swan, in late 2008, yet it was a 20-bagger within 15 months. And it was right under our eyes. It might not have as much room to move up now, but it's certainly oversold. Should be some easy money unless I've missed something (like the market??).

Re Correlations, or Rsquared: I have to tell you that a correlation of 0.69 (or 69% variation explained) is not a great result in itself. If you could tell me the standard deviation that went with that data, I might be more impressed. If you had a correlation of 0.85-0.95 then that is likely to be much stronger. But you can have rubbish data in the middle of a graph, and still get a high correlation figure, if the data is spread out far enough (stretched). What matters is the error in any given point on the graph, and that could still be huge.

So is gold overpriced by 25%? It's priced where the market thinks it should be, can't argue with that (ref: Phaedrus et al, Sharetrader Forum 2005-2011).;)

[Skol]

I'm real lucky I didn't take your advice and buy OGC a few weeks back when you suggested it. An STD would have been preferable.

While the price of gold has moved up a tad, Barron's gold mining index has plummeted since the beginning of the year.

Very interesting about the correlation but I work in an industry where being able to calculate the square root of -1 is amusing but unimportant.

[elZorro]

I'm real lucky I didn't take your advice and buy OGC a few weeks back when you suggested it. An STD would have been preferable.

While the price of gold has moved up a tad, Barron's gold mining index has plummeted since the beginning of the year.

I think my suggestion was a bit tongue-in-cheek at that stage, and I didn't know there was going to be some (ill-founded) bad press about Didipio. But I have certainly bought some OGC recently, and because I hadn't sold quite all my previous shares, it could be called averaging down. Yes Mr. P, I admit it..:eek2:

How much did the Barron's index plummet? or are you exaggerating again?

[Skol]

I think my suggestion was a bit tongue-in-cheek at that stage, and I didn't know there was going to be some (ill-founded) bad press about Didipio. But I have certainly bought some OGC recently, and because I hadn't sold quite all my previous shares, it could be called averaging down. Yes Mr. P, I admit it..:eek2:

How much did the Barron's index plummet? or are you exaggerating again?

I don't exaggerate, down about 10%.

www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/free/fchart-BGMI.php

[elZorro]

I don't exaggerate, down about 10%.

www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/free/fchart-BGMI.php (http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/free/fchart-BGMI.php)

Hi Skol, you wouldn't have a newer version of that graph would you? I see the BGMI trends with the PoG, probably quite a good correlation ;), but it's by subscription only.

Anyway, it has recovered from the 10% drop, so no worse than 6%, and even 10% is not a "plummet". Go back to the chart in 2008, that was a plummet, and a goldbugs invitation to make some profit later (somehow I didn't manage that).

Since you're thinking about the ladies, here's something from the Barrons page:

[Skol]

In the latest Barrons the gold price and the gold index started at zero 12 months ago.

Gold (Handy & Harman) price is up 27%.
The Mining Index rose 60% to December and has fallen back to 22% since then, so gold has risen 5% more in the last 12 months than the index. In other words the Index has dropped nearly 40%.

[shasta]

In the latest Barrons the gold price and the gold index started at zero 12 months ago.

Gold (Handy & Harman) price is up 27%.
The Mining Index rose 60% to December and has fallen back to 22% since then, so gold has risen 5% more in the last 12 months than the index. In other words the Index has dropped nearly 40%.

Oh dear, Skol is going to have a field day, i got a cold call from some overseas "broker" advising me that Barrick Gold was going to increase by 40% "guaranteed" in the next 90 days...

But they could only offer me 500 shares @ $US47.79 & the gains were "tax free"

Deary me i cut the sales person off midstream

I'm far from a gold bull (i much prefer silver) but when someone has to "ramp" the pants off a stock to sell it, good grief

How on earth did they get my mobile number? :(

[STRAT]

Oh dear, Skol is going to have a field day, i got a cold call from some overseas "broker" advising me that Barrick Gold was going to increase by 40% "guaranteed" in the next 90 days...

But they could only offer me 500 shares @ $US47.79 & the gains were "tax free"

Deary me i cut the sales person off midstream

I'm far from a gold bull (i much prefer silver) but when someone has to "ramp" the pants off a stock to sell it, good grief

How on earth did they get my mobile number? :(lol Shasta.
Im guessing it was an African number.
Somalia or Nigeria perhaps.

But most likely Hidden from you.

[shasta]

lol Shasta.
Im guessing it was an African number.
Somalia or Nigeria perhaps.

But most likely Hidden from you.

Was a hispanic female but very American sounding, i see ive got 3 missed calls from a private number, 1 more & ill ring telecom & get it blocked!!!!

BTW, I always give the Nigerians my bank account numbers, so they can take out the fees from the $US millions they are putting in ;)

It's only fair...

[Skol]

A scam, I'll bet, call the Securities Commission.

[elZorro]

A scam, I'll bet, call the Securities Commission.
Hi Skol, I'm still being hassled by a futures trader in China. What should I do? :eek2:

Right, here is the definitive article, the real McKoy, why Gold and Silver are going to be in short supply. (http://www.ob-research.com/Gold_Tsunami)

OK, one of the authors is Eric Sprott, but do you have any rebuttal Skol?

This article is similar. (http://www.ob-research.com/China_Gold_Buying-Demand_Unbelievable)

[Skol]

THE $US is the BIGGEST BUBBLE AS IT IS INFLATED AT WHIM AND WITH NO RESTRAINT.

Hey Stevy,
What's the standard goldbug response that the USA's debt/GDP ratio was the biggest in history just after WW2?

[Skol]

Hi Skol, I'm still being hassled by a futures trader in China. What should I do? :eek2:

Right, here is the definitive article, the real McKoy, why Gold and Silver are going to be in short supply. (http://www.ob-research.com/Gold_Tsunami)

OK, one of the authors is Eric Sprott, but do you have any rebuttal Skol?

This article is similar. (http://www.ob-research.com/China_Gold_Buying-Demand_Unbelievable)

No, but Cramer says buy, buy, buy.

[shasta]

A scam, I'll bet, call the Securities Commission.

After telling them i simply am not interested i went out for the afternoon & got 3 more missed calls from the same private number

I've rung Telecom to complain & will talk to them tomorrow

[shasta]

No, but Cramer says buy, buy, buy.

Silver back over $US30/oz ;)

[drillfix]

Hi Shasta, how are you doing mate.

Hey, for anybody who is into Gold, Silver, or Metals in general, there is a cool little addon for FireFox called Live Gold

It can give you gold charts by year, daily, monthly whatever and as well as other metals as already mentioned.

Anyhoo if you use firefox then I recommend you check it out: https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/live-gold/

cheers :)

[stevo1]

Hey Stevy,
What's the standard goldbug response that the USA's debt/GDP ratio was the biggest in history just after WW2?

Skoly you would have to ask a true blue goldbug that one .
I will give you a bit of research to do.Rather than debate as you are convinced you are right come hell or highwater and ignore any reason.
What constituted the measure of GDP then(after WW2?)
Is it the same measure as used now?
Do you understand how they measure their GDP?How did they handle that problem then?(they were still on the gold standard,yes)
As I have said to you before not interested in getting into a pissing contest.
What ever is said here whos right whos wrong it will all become apparent in due course

[shasta]

Hi Shasta, how are you doing mate.

Hey, for anybody who is into Gold, Silver, or Metals in general, there is a cool little addon for FireFox called Live Gold

It can give you gold charts by year, daily, monthly whatever and as well as other metals as already mentioned.

Anyhoo if you use firefox then I recommend you check it out: https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/live-gold/

cheers :)

I dont use that Drilly, is it in any other format suitable for IE8?

I assume its just like having Kitco encoded into your browser???

[elZorro]

Skol, aren't you always banging on about how the USA got through the 30's depression with their war machine? Turns out it was the intense saving going on that freed up funds after the war (http://www.ob-research.com/Casey-Escaping_the_Great_Depression), so businesses could rebuild after an unfriendly few years. GDP was high during the war, but it was all govt spending and churn.

I wonder how many Americans put their savings into gold and silver?

[Skol]

Skol, aren't you always banging on about how the USA got through the 30's depression with their war machine? Turns out it was the intense saving going on that freed up funds after the war (http://www.ob-research.com/Casey-Escaping_the_Great_Depression), so businesses could rebuild after an unfriendly few years. GDP was high during the war, but it was all govt spending and churn.

I wonder how many Americans put their savings into gold and silver?

Probably quite a few I would imagine, with all the newspaper advertising, Glenn Beck raving on about the coming return to the stone age, gold vending machines, endless gold ads on TV, etc.

Just like loads of suckers bought property and were going to make their fortune.

What I like to bang on about EZ is that any country that can build all that stuff during WW2 will overcome their problems. In addition to all the jeeps, tanks, ships, guns, ammo, bombers, fighters and food they produced in the war they also managed to build and equip an aircraft carrier every 2 weeks.. They started the war with 1 carrier and ended up with 99.

Mubarak's thrown in the towel, so there's one less reason to own gold.

[elZorro]

Probably quite a few I would imagine, with all the newspaper advertising, Glenn Beck raving on about the coming return to the stone age, gold vending machines, endless gold ads on TV, etc.

Just like loads of suckers bought property and were going to make their fortune.

What I like to bang on about EZ is that any country that can build all that stuff during WW2 will overcome their problems. In addition to all the jeeps, tanks, ships, guns, ammo, bombers, fighters and food they produced in the war they also managed to build and equip an aircraft carrier every 2 weeks.. They started the war with 1 carrier and ended up with 99.

Mubarak's thrown in the towel, so there's one less reason to own gold.

Hi Skol, what I meant was that perhaps some of the very useful domestic saving done during WWII would have been held in gold and silver bullion. I just thought the article was interesting and had to tie it back in somehow :).

I'm not sure if this Bloomberg Article on the bull market for gold/silver (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-07/investors-102-billion-precious-metals-wager-showing-bull-market-intact.html?cmpid=)has been posted. The analysts that come up with a price of $1620 gold in 2011 have a very low average error in their normal predictions. So I'd think an average of their calculations should be quite good.

My thinking is more in line with yours than you'd expect. Properly invested money in an industry or business is far more useful long-term than hoarding bullion. And the return should also be higher. It's just that during some periods of history, you need to be more careful, and a higher level of backup savings (or reduced investment?) is pertinent. If I did have lots of spare cash looking for a home, I'd rather have some gold or silver bullion (or mining shares) than all of that money in a low interest bank account.

[Skol]

Hey JB,

What's happened to NAV? Looks like the death knell.

[skeet]

Hi Shasta, how are you doing mate.

Hey, for anybody who is into Gold, Silver, or Metals in general, there is a cool little addon for FireFox called Live Gold

It can give you gold charts by year, daily, monthly whatever and as well as other metals as already mentioned.

Anyhoo if you use firefox then I recommend you check it out: https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/live-gold/

cheers :)

Thanks for posting this, love it

[Skol]

Actually i have been to Asia, hundreds of times, since 1974.

Cotton's got quite a bit to do with it. Hoarding's common in China; gold, cotton, copper, anything where there's a whiff of profit. Very unsophisticated investors too, there'll be some drama there, but here's something from yesterday's WSJ.

'Historically gold has moved with the money supply. During the last 30 years, the correlation has been about 69%, according to FactSet data. (A correlation of 100% means 2 indexes move in lockstep all the time; a correlation of -100% means they move in perfect opposition.)
Based on the money supply alone, gold is priced 25% above where it should be.'

And this week's Barron's.

'Gold's recent behaviour shows the danger of investing at record highs. Gold futures have come down nearly 5% since settling at $1422oz on Jan 3, a record, and nearly double the price at the trough in October 2008. It doesn't make much sense to buy in while those who doubled their money, or close to it, are taking it off the table.
Those who argue gold prices will continue to rise point to its growing acceptance among different kinds of investors. However, markets that are deeper and more liquid will attract both buyers and sellers. Financial innovation and increasing sophistication of ETF's means that going short, or betting on price declines, will become just as easy as going long in commodity markets. That is enough to avoid treating the metal as a one-way bet.'

This from Yahoo Finance more or less saying the same thing:

"However Goldman sachs released a note on gold recently which said that gold is not a consistent inflation hedge and said that inflation fears and loose monetary policy were already baked into higher gold prices. If inflation doesn't actually materialize, gold could see more downside. Goldman also goes on to say that gold doesn't fulfill its role as a safe haven asset in an investor portfolio as tactical traders have made prices more volatile."

[Skol]

There's been an excellent series on gold on the History Channel on Saturday nights.

It's on the history of gold and it's up to about the 18th century not that long after Sir Isaac Newton decided on a gold standard. He also introduced the coins with serrated edges to foil the gold 'clippers' who were slicing off the edges of gold coins and melting them down.

One interesting observation noted by the commentator was that in many cases gold exacted a terrible price on those that pursued it, Francisco Pizzaro being one of them, stabbed many times and then drew a cross in his own blood before expiring.

Tons of gold was shipped to Spain, which should have been the richest country on the planet, but alas, it was soon squandered.

The Asians ended up with it.

[stevo1]

Posting this here .
TA people may find it interesting i am SHOCKED by it and the possible future consequences not only for precious metals .
http://www.businessinsider.com/charts-debt-unemployment--2011-2#

[Lego_Man]

Posting this here .
TA people may find it interesting i am SHOCKED by it and the possible future consequences not only for precious metals .
http://www.businessinsider.com/charts-debt-unemployment--2011-2#

About half of those charts are garbage as they should be plotted on a logarithmic scale. As it is they are in nominal dollars and dont factor in inflation at all.

Pure scaremongering with scarily plotted lines.

[upside_umop]

Exactly Lego Man.

Stevo1 et al, there is a reason that central banks aim for a constant, small inflation band. It's to create and keep confidence in the economic and financial system.

Look at the devastating effect in Japan where deflation has taken hold over the last 20 years. Nobody spends because they believe goods will be cheaper in the future. The aim should be for goods to rise moderately in price so that consumer behaviour is indifferent to purchasing now or in the future. This helps keeps consistent and sustainable growth.

Growth in developed countries has, and will continue to be distorted by imbalances in the global economy (i.e. now is China, next it will be India, Africa etc where wages are cheaper).

If you have a better way of managing growth, then I'd like to see. Gold standard anyone? Yeah right.

[stevo1]

About half of those charts are garbage as they should be plotted on a logarithmic scale. As it is they are in nominal dollars and dont factor in inflation at all.

Pure scaremongering with scarily plotted lines.
If they did factor inflation then inherently inflation MUST be being used an economic tool to ineffect devalue the $US and reduce purchasing power it seems fairly clear to even my simple mind that that cannot go on infinitum and the multiplying factor of inflation over time(as in componding) will surely end up with having the hyper inflation .
And the other half that are not " garbage"?
Are you willing dismiss or to ignore those?
As a matter of interest (gold/oil) every time you fill your car has it not seemed a little odd that you can only preset the fill to $99 because the pumps preset dosnet go over $99.(never used to need more than $99 granted that in NZ gst,taxes etc)
IF there is a gold to oil relationship there is a classic example of in ya face inflation.

[Skol]

As a matter of interest (gold/oil) every time you fill your car has it not seemed a little odd that you can only preset the fill to $99 because the pumps preset dosnet go over $99

No, because I use a button that has 'fill' written on it. I bought $105 worth of gas 2 hours ago.

[stevo1]

[QUOTE=Skol;337240]No, because I use a button that has 'fill' written on it. I bought $105 worth of gas 2 hours ago.[/Q



Um yes skol that isnt the preset button for a amount that in times past before fuel inflated that you could have filled off the preset without going over $99. About 10yrs ago I noticed my calculater didnt have enough noughts to do some calcs on companies or countries.UMMM about the same time gold was about $280 oil was about $20/b.

[Lego_Man]

If they did factor inflation then inherently inflation MUST be being used an economic tool to ineffect devalue the $US and reduce purchasing power it seems fairly clear to even my simple mind that that cannot go on infinitum and the multiplying factor of inflation over time(as in componding) will surely end up with having the hyper inflation .
And the other half that are not " garbage"?
Are you willing dismiss or to ignore those?
As a matter of interest (gold/oil) every time you fill your car has it not seemed a little odd that you can only preset the fill to $99 because the pumps preset dosnet go over $99.(never used to need more than $99 granted that in NZ gst,taxes etc)
IF there is a gold to oil relationship there is a classic example of in ya face inflation.

Any graph that plots a compounding yearly change will eventually look like that, including your own wealth if you projected it out over another 100 years.

And no i'm not willing to dismiss the other charts, in fact i agree with a lot of the sentiment - i'm just not a doom and gloomer. The US can and will eventually get their house in order. It will take a generation but it is possible.

[Hoop]

While their is a TA focus on this thread..I shall write what my current thinking is atm...
One of the biggest gripes from Non-TA is that everything seems easy in hindsight...

OK Lets look at this post as one form of TA in progress using Trends S&R and chart pattern.

As life is always in a state of flux, an "event" could occur and alter any chart landscape nothing is 100% accurate (perfect world)..I think I'm lucky if I can get +70% accurate and 70% is my area of success these days. This 70% accuracy means in the long run I make more money than I lose.

Chartists view charts in different ways and sometimes a chartist's perception makes them see a different formation in progress than say another chartist. Only when a formation is completed that we would 99% agree.

ATM.. I am watching and perceiving a complex H&S in progress...I could be wrong and this H&S maybe a figment of my imagination so I watch the chart unfold day by day to either confirm my perception or discard that idea and move on to the next possible formation. So while is possible formation unfolds I watch key price areas (see black circles) and become cautious.

The chart I have drawn below is a "possible" H&S pattern viewed by me... a more complex one Head + 2 shoulder formation...the second shoulder (S1) is not yet formed..I am looking at this recent rise ATM as perhaps the start of S1 and if it is true the price should top out at around $us1380 -1390 area...so caution at this 1380 -1390 area rather than optimism should be your behaviour...and watch for sell signals...

If the progressing H&S pattern is real I see a rally to about 1380 -1390 then retrace to test its minor supports and the all important dotted second neckline [N1] (approx 1300)... if it breaks the neckline it is confirmed H&S and this is very bearish as it then has a good chance to drop and test the 1155 primary support line.............

If the scernario from now on sees a continued rise and POG rallies on past 1430 then it is not a H&S pattern or triple top and the Bull rallies on so I would become optimistic (bullish) again and this post and chart becomes irrelevent. :)

Of interest:...when looking for chart trend reversals the Bollinger bands are useful these bands squeeze up when forecasting a possible trend reversal ...see the trend reversal at Xmas time and note the absence of any squeezing ATM

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/Gold04022011.png

Update from my earlier post #2120. (see above, written on 4th Feb 2011)
The POG has now entered into the caution zone

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/Gold17022011.png

[Skol]

Remember to watch "The Power of Gold" on Sky tomorrow night. Sky's notoriously unreliable when it come to programming and timing BTW.

[elZorro]

Gold still moving steadily up in the last few days, I assume the North African unrest has something to do with it.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/17/us-eu-northafrica-dilemma-idUSTRE71G36N20110217?pageNumber=1

I hoarded some copper for a few months and sold it at the scrap merchants today, they paid $3.80/kg for cabling off-cuts. Copper has increased from $5,000/tonne to $13,000/tonne in two years.

[Skol]

There's a few bubbles besides gold and silver at the moment.
Corn, wheat, copper, cotton, soybeans, dairy products and farmland. There's concern in the US what's going to happen to the economy if there's a sudden burst in the farmland bubble, which has increased by 20% in the last year in some states. Farm auctions are making record prices.

[Skol]

re ... Corn, wheat, copper, cotton, soybeans, dairy products and farmland. bubbles

They're not bubbles in the sense you imply. I.e. the high prices are the result of normal supply and demand factors and not irritional expectations of further price increases. This type of price activity is pretty normal at this stage of the economic cycle. For the last 2-3 years there's been massive underinvestment in many sectors as companies have cut back production and skimped on maintenance - thus the total supply (and ability to ramp up supply) has be constrainted. With high prices, many more people will jump in and supply will increase. As supply increases, prices will stabalise and/or fall.

I have to diagree with that. JB Murc for example is (along with millions of others) hoarding silver, some are hoarding gold in irrational expectations that the prices are going to keep rising, in some cases the hoarders are expecting gold to be $5/$10 or even $50k.
Farmers in China are hoarding cotton, their houses are full of it, others hoard copper.

In the last year:
Silver up 80%, now at a 30 year high.
Corn up 61%
Wheat up 43%
Cotton up 112%
Some dairy products up 150%

Someone's gonna get their fingers burnt.

Gold and silver aren't likely to match industrials. The S&P 500 is up 27% since Sept 1st.
It's only done this 5 times before and on each occasion there were more gains over the next 12 months averaging 22.1%.

[Hoop]

re ... Corn, wheat, copper, cotton, soybeans, dairy products and farmland. bubbles

They're not bubbles in the sense you imply. I.e. the high prices are the result of normal supply and demand factors and not irritional expectations of further price increases. This type of price activity is pretty normal at this stage of the economic cycle. For the last 2-3 years there's been massive underinvestment in many sectors as companies have cut back production and skimped on maintenance - thus the total supply (and ability to ramp up supply) has be constrainted. With high prices, many more people will jump in and supply will increase. As supply increases, prices will stabalise and/or fall.

Looking at Economic Cycle Stages / Business Cycle / Price & Demand and at what stage where we are in those cycles ...its hard to argue (if not impossible) that Belg is wrong....except for Skol:cool:


I have to diagree with that. JB Murc for example is (along with millions of others) hoarding silver, some are hoarding gold in irrational expectations that the prices are going to keep rising,.....

The price/demand events are just another variable factor accounted for in the mix of text book Market Cycle.

Skol you just told the world the equivalent that 1+1 does not equal 2 in text book Mathematical theory..:(

Yes..yes..yes I know:p....... in real life 1+1 can be > or <2 (synergy)

Agree with Belg that there's no bubble just market forces at work.
If there was a bubble it would stand out in defiance to all other related sector groups. The Hunt brothers cornering the silver market would be one example of gross distortion of a price/demand event (#2142 660 year Silver Chart) (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?7449-Gold/page143)

As for Gold.... it is a Bull market Cycle. At this point of time the evidence so far is showing gold is in a healthy pause/correction stage.

[asc4]

Hey Skol, just a question.

You obviously feel that gold and silver are going to crash, from memory you have mentioned that you own none, therefore I assume you have made no gains from it.

Would you say that in a balanced portfolio precious metals should feature in some capacity?

If they were, then someone with a balanced portfolio would have profited from the recent gains, and diversified away from a huge impact of a bubble.

I am bias in my comments as I believe in Gold/silver at the moment, and will continue to for a while I suspect. Both will be higher at the end of the year IMHO.

Someone WILL get burnt, but some WILL profit along the way.

[Skol]

Hey Skol, just a question.

You obviously feel that gold and silver are going to crash, from memory you have mentioned that you own none, therefore I assume you have made no gains from it.

Would you say that in a balanced portfolio precious metals should feature in some capacity?

If they were, then someone with a balanced portfolio would have profited from the recent gains, and diversified away from a huge impact of a bubble.

I am bias in my comments as I believe in Gold/silver at the moment, and will continue to for a while I suspect. Both will be higher at the end of the year IMHO.

Someone WILL get burnt, but some WILL profit along the way.

I have profited from it. I bought into the (now closed) BT Natural Resources fund about 13 years ago. It's diversified so only has a small percentage in gold no doubt, however the fund has averaged about 18% p.a. during this time and up 30% in the last 6 months. Dividends reinvested. That's enough exposure for me, I'm not greedy, but it's made me what you could call a small fortune.

Punters get creamed all the time by overexposure, and I'm not keen to be one of them. Belgarion is correct that there is demand for some crops following fires and flood but some commodities are being hoarded expecting them to go higher. Have a look at the return on a farm in NZ, it doesn't add up, I've even had farmers tell me that.

I was working with a guy a few weeks back who told me the sad story of his overexposure to property which was the trendy commodity to own up until 2007. Not small losses, massive losses.

BTW, 'The Power of Gold' is on 1 hour later than advertised by the Sky book.

[upside_umop]

What channel/time skol?

[Skol]

What channel/time skol?

History channel, 8.30pm, been an excellent series.
Mentioned on a previous post the series is up to just after Sir Isaac Newton become Warden of the London Mint, battling the counterfeiters and 'clippers' and establishing the gold standard.

[hal]

I have profited from it. I bought into the (now closed) BT Natural Resources fund about 13 years ago. It's diversified so only has a small percentage in gold no doubt, however the fund has averaged about 18% p.a. during this time and up 30% in the last 6 months. Dividends reinvested. That's enough exposure for me, I'm not greedy, but it's made me what you could call a small fortune.

Punters get creamed all the time by overexposure, and I'm not keen to be one of them. Belgarion is correct that there is demand for some crops following fires and flood but some commodities are being hoarded expecting them to go higher. Have a look at the return on a farm in NZ, it doesn't add up, I've even had farmers tell me that.

I was working with a guy a few weeks back who told me the sad story of his overexposure to property which was the trendy commodity to own up until 2007. Not small losses, massive losses.

BTW, 'The Power of Gold' is on 1 hour later than advertised by the Sky book.

I think in a lot of cases the hoarding as you call it is done for reasons of protecting their wealth.

If the dollar is going down commodities are going up. Therefore it would be fair to say holding cash is bad news. By holding the commodities the hoarders must have protected their wealth very well.

Obviously your natural resources fund is pointing to the same result.

[skid]

silver at 30yr high-Let me be the first to congratulate your Mum on her savy investment-well done

[shasta]

silver at 30yr high-Let me be the first to congratulate your Mum on her savy investment-well done

Skol might wanna sell it & buy shares in a pure Silver producer, like AYN - cash costs $A13.50 v a current $US32.88/oz spot price

[JBmurc]

silver at 30yr high-Let me be the first to congratulate your Mum on her savy investment-well done

yes to bad the son didn't listen to her words of wisdom maybe thats way Skol is so anti bullion

[Skol]

yes to bad the son didn't listen to her words of wisdom maybe thats way Skol is so anti bullion

Didn't you watch 'The Power of Gold' last night?

The gold standard got most of the blame for the Great Depression and J. K. Galbraith stated;

"If all the gold from the vaults in the US, the UK, France and everywhere else was dumped in the ocean off Newfoundland, economic activity would continue quite normally."

[Skol]

I think in a lot of cases the hoarding as you call it is done for reasons of protecting their wealth.

If the dollar is going down commodities are going up. Therefore it would be fair to say holding cash is bad news. By holding the commodities the hoarders must have protected their wealth very well.

Obviously your natural resources fund is pointing to the same result.

I'm not hoarding my natural resources fund, it's diversified and I've been in it many years with the dividend reinvested about July each year. I bought into it to diversify my own investments and it's probably, copper, iron, uranium etc that's made the gains, gold is probably a miniscule part of the fund.

[hal]

I'm not hoarding my natural resources fund, it's diversified and I've been in it many years with the dividend reinvested about July each year. I bought into it to diversify my own investments and it's probably, copper, iron, uranium etc that's made the gains, gold is probably a miniscule part of the fund.

The point you might have missed is that most people who are interested in Gold would be using it to diversify their assetts.

It has been a fantastic investment over the last 10 years along with a lot of the companies producing and exploring for it.

[Skol]

The point you might have missed is that most people who are interested in Gold would be using it to diversify their assetts.

They did in 1980 too, loads of suckers getting cleaned out and leaving many poverty-stricken. But there's a new generation with a new explanation as they say.

Maybe 'it's different this time', but I doubt it hal.

[JBmurc]

Didn't you watch 'The Power of Gold' last night?

The gold standard got most of the blame for the Great Depression and J. K. Galbraith stated;

"If all the gold from the vaults in the US, the UK, France and everywhere else was dumped in the ocean off Newfoundland, economic activity would continue quite normally."

I have read a book "the power of gold" by a Mr Goldstein yes a Gold standard isn't good if you want to pay later for some you want now

--worth a read---
http://inflationdata.com/inflation/inflation_rate/gold_inflation.asp

The U.S. had periods of high inflation during both the Revolutionary and Civil wars because they were not on a "gold standard" and issued "Greenbacks" instead.

In an effort to curtail inflation at the end of the civil war in 1879, the U.S. government made the "greenbacks" that they had issued during the Civil War convertible into gold putting us on a de facto gold standard.

[elZorro]

I watched "The Power of Gold" Skol.. I think they tried to show both sides of the argument about its usefulness.

How about that gold price hey? - Last chance for some cheapish OGC shares perhaps..although there should be better buys around. Will gold exceed $1400 overnight?

[Skol]

I've just had a look at the OGC chart and it's not a pretty sight.
OGC down .14 in NZ and .01 in Oz.

You never know though, if the ME situation gets out of hand it could boost the POG, especially if they start executing a few dictators.

[elZorro]

I've just had a look at the OGC chart and it's not a pretty sight.
OGC down .14 in NZ and .01 in Oz.

You never know though, if the ME situation gets out of hand it could boost the POG, especially if they start executing a few dictators.

Yes, it's that uncertainty that boosts gold. Seems like there's always something happening at the moment, that points to a less stable world. Is it possible that it's related to the end of cheap energy? :cool:

[Huang Chung]

Getting close to $1,400 again.

This time, it looks like the Black Swan has crapped on the Middle East, driving gold higher.

[shasta]

Getting close to $1,400 again.

This time, it looks like the Black Swan has crapped on the Middle East, driving gold higher.

Gold currently up $12.60 @ $US1401.70/oz

Skol wont be too unhappy with Silver up 82c @ $US33.48/oz ;)

Not even i expected Silver to move up so quickly, must be due a for a breather (Any chartist able to show the previous resistance/support levels for Silver in $US)

Cheers

[Skol]

Yeah my mother's silver's moving up but I'm happier with my cows.
I'm sending some off to the works. Paid $320 each for them a year ago, should get nearly $1000.
210% p.a., not bad.

[elZorro]

Yeah my mother's siver's moving up but I'm happier with my cows.
I'm sending some off to the works. Paid $320 each for them a year ago, should get nearly $1000.
212% p.a., not bad.

Is this an open invitation for an argument Skol?..should be fun..:)

You'd have had plenty of storage costs on that investment: vets, extra feed, water, power, fuel costs, animal health remedies, perhaps the odd complete loss of part of the stock items, not to mention the big one, the use of money and interest costs for the land used. Even if you don't cost your own labour. I hope you had the dry stock insured etc..

But fair enough, townies like me don't think about this land-based cycle of profit very often.

[Skol]

Is this an open invitation for an argument Skol?..should be fun..:)

You'd have had plenty of storage costs on that investment: vets, extra feed, water, power, fuel costs, animal health remedies, perhaps the odd complete loss of part of the stock items, not to mention the big one, the use of money and interest costs for the land used. Even if you don't cost your own labour. I hope you had the dry stock insured etc..

But fair enough, townies like me don't think about this land-based cycle of profit very often.

No gold for me, cows are better.
No vets fees, power, water (rain water), no hay required, no losses (except for the one in the freezer). Only cost to me will be transport to the works and I'm sharing that with the neighbour. Probably spent $100 on some calf feed.
No tax either.

[stevo1]

No gold for me, cows are better.
No vets fees, power, water (rain water), no hay required, no losses (except for the one in the freezer). Only cost to me will be transport to the works and I'm sharing that with the neighbour. Probably spent $100 on some calf feed.
No tax either.
1.848 cows equals 1oz gold.
Very hard skoly to see how you could stick those cows in your pocket take them to Australia and or USA(or anywhere in NZ) and get your $1000 each .
But then again you might have deeeep pockets and a large coat.
Purchase cost .Holding cost of(maintainence) of land????
Still wondering how you stick these cows under your mattress (or as with your mums silver put them in the safe without them going off) of course at some stage you HAVE TO sell them as their use by date is not enduring?
Not only are you dealing in perishable commodity also dealing with markets weather and biologigal unknowns but well done on your profit though yor method of calulating it is a little suss

[Hoop]

Gold currently up $12.60 @ $US1401.70/oz

Skol wont be too unhappy with Silver up 82c @ $US33.48/oz ;)

Not even i expected Silver to move up so quickly, must be due a for a breather (Any chartist able to show the previous resistance/support levels for Silver in $US)

Cheers

My chart doodles ..I watched for a possible complex double H&S to complete its formation so I was cautious. Note how the market was spookily cautious for 5 days within those blue Shoulder and neck extension lines combined with the 31 resistance level line. Once it got above the extension lines as well as the top(head) 31 resistance line it was a buy signal and away it went.

Now that the complex H&S pattern has broken down (bullish), it is easy to see that Silver had just had a Bull market correction and is now resuming its steep uptrend again.

31.0 area is the new support level...often a new support level is tested so don't be surprised if the Silver price falls back to 31 in the near future and gives its support a test out.

The same sort of thing for Gold chart as well..I suspect its Complex H&S pattern has broken down too.......all good news for the silver and gold bugs.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/Silver.png

[Huang Chung]

Yeah my mother's silver's moving up but I'm happier with my cows.
I'm sending some off to the works. Paid $320 each for them a year ago, should get nearly $1000.
210% p.a., not bad.

I'd be selling too Skol, those cows look to be a (methane) bubble....

[Skol]

1.848 cows equals 1oz gold.
Very hard skoly to see how you could stick those cows in your pocket take them to Australia and or USA(or anywhere in NZ) and get your $1000 each .
But then again you might have deeeep pockets and a large coat.
Purchase cost .Holding cost of(maintainence) of land????
Still wondering how you stick these cows under your mattress (or as with your mums silver put them in the safe without them going off) of course at some stage you HAVE TO sell them as their use by date is not enduring?
Not only are you dealing in perishable commodity also dealing with markets weather and biologigal unknowns but well done on your profit though yor method of calulating it is a little suss

The one I put in the freezer is the best beef you'll ever get. A large animal cost me $320 to buy and $350 to butcher. That amount of meat will set you back $5000 at the butcher. How's your gold taste? Is it putting on a little bit of weight each day?

[trackers]

Think of how much butcher meat you could have bought if you hadn't held farm land over the last couple of years?? And you talk about bubbles bursting, LOL

[stevo1]

The one I put in the freezer is the best beef you'll ever get. A large animal cost me $320 to buy and $350 to butcher. That amount of meat will set you back $5000 at the butcher. How's your gold taste? Is it putting on a little bit of weight each day?
Skoly never any answers forthcoming from you ,justification of your position only.
We used to kill and butcher our own stock,yes it was good BUT there were all the holding costs land ,fencing ,weed control,drenching.water to the paddacks,machinery,rates,vet,tagging etc,etc,etc and of course the running and storage costs (freezer and power)
Your meat WONT keep forever in freezer.Have you counted your time in rearing and butchering.Bet you have a stack of mince and suasages and very little eye fillet or choice cuts .
Gold seems to be fattening up in price and putting a little more weight every day ATM but of course no gaurantee of that into the future

[Skol]

Skoly never any answers forthcoming from you ,justification of your position only.

Fencing-haven't touched the fences for years, have nearly all hotwires.
Water - no cost, it's rain water.
Drenching - $10/ head p.a max.
Machinery - old MF I've had for years, more of a hobby, a fixer-upper, 1972, but now almost showroom condition. Worth more than I paid for it.
Vet- nil
Supplemental feed - nil, grass all year round.
Rates - same as a property in town.
Tagging- nil, buy with tags on.
Dog - not reqd, I train them to follow me.
Cost of freezer to run- dunno, $100 p.a.?
Weeds- walk around twice a year with a sprayer.
Cost of my property is the same as a very good property in town.
Meat from one animal lasts us 15 months, then we do another, keeps the whole time.
Have our own firewood and garden veges.
Maintenance- no more than average house.
No tax - defined by tax department as ahobby.
My own labour, not much, I move them once a week. I go out and talk to them every now and then though.

Gold:

No interest, doesn't put on weight you might say.
Costs of storage or safe, and alarm
Insurance.
Volatility.
You can't eat it in an emergency.
Profits taxable.

[stevo1]

Sounds like you are on a small block and hobby farming good for you cannot really argue with the peasant farmer mentality(and I mean that with no disrespect).
Now if you were a french farmer you certainly would have your stash of gold somewhere as opposed to fiat currency.
I was looking on Trade me in NZ the other day and found some fiat Zimbabwe currency for sale.
Have you been there?
Do you know its past history as one of Africas wealthiest nations?
Any way they have for sale there fiat currency for $10 NZ you can buy a 100,000,000,000,000 dollar note (which isnt worth the paper it is written on).Yes that is 100 trillion dollars and was legitmate currency.
Very easy to change value on paper is it not .

[shasta]

My chart doodles ..I watched for a possible complex double H&S to complete its formation so I was cautious. Note how the market was spookily cautious for 5 days within those blue Shoulder and neck extension lines combined with the 31 resistance level line. Once it got above the extension lines as well as the top(head) 31 resistance line it was a buy signal and away it went.

Now that the complex H&S pattern has broken down (bullish), it is easy to see that Silver had just had a Bull market correction and is now resuming its steep uptrend again.

31.0 area is the new support level...often a new support level is tested so don't be surprised if the Silver price falls back to 31 in the near future and gives its support a test out.

The same sort of thing for Gold chart as well..I suspect its Complex H&S pattern has broken down too.......all good news for the silver and gold bugs.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/Silver.png

Thanks Hoop

I was guessing around $30 might be a psychological level, but a retest of $31 would be healthy (assuming it continues upwards of course!)

[elZorro]

I learnt to drive on a Fergie tractor Skol - did you know that if you belt down a slight hill in third you should be able to do some harrowing in 4th gear? It will bunnyhop a bit however :).

Here's a Mining News article that screamed for me to post it:



Those of us whose memories go back to 1980 have seen it all before. In that year Soviet intervention in Afghanistan, following a build up in Yemen, and the impact of the Iranian revolution doubled the price of oil in very short order. Inflation in most countries at the time was already running in double figures and as a result gold rose to a record level of US$850/oz. If that was translated into today's money it would be equal to US$2,370/oz according to Adam Hamilton of Zeal Intelligence, who uses the Consumer Price Index to recast historical gold prices into today's inflated dollars.

Minews is too old a hand in the gold business to affix his name to a forecast for the gold price, but it is hardly going to fall in current circumstances and the teenage scribblers at the Financial Times who forecast that gold had had its day just after Christmas are chewing their lips as they learn a big lesson.

"When times are difficult catastrophe theorists love gold," said Mark Weisbrot, co-director of the Centre for Economic Policy and Research, in Washington. "Gold has its own dynamic that's separate from all the other commodities."

After what the world had undergone in the last 30 years there are an awful lot more catastrophe theorists about. In the past most general portfolios had a modest exposure to gold, or gold producers and explorers, as a hedge against currency problems and inflation. Then came the clever fund managers and economists who poo-pooed such strategies until they discovered in 2007 that they were not so clever after all. Messrs Brown and Balls were the apotheoses of this cleverness when they sold most of the UK gold reserves between 1999 and 2002, since when the price of bullion has risen from US$275 to US$1,400/oz.

Now we look at North Africa and the Middle East, sources of a major part of the world's oil, and what do we see. Working from West to East, we have Colonel Gaddafi launching gun ships on his own people who are rioting in several cities and Libya alone produces around 2 per cent of the world's crude oil. Work back along the coast and the latest news from Algeria is that there have been pro-democracy demonstrations, despite a state of emergency being in place since 1992, with posters everywhere reminding President Bouteflika what happened to the President of Egypt.

The unrest has spread like the 'flu bug from North Africa to the Middle East. Bahrain and Iran are the most recent additions and they deliver the most potent threats to Western oil supplies. In all this shambles America has displayed its ignorance of the specific problems in each country and shown it is not an ally to be trusted. President Mubarak had been a friend to both the US and Israel, but got no backing at critical moment, so it will be interesting to see how it plays its hand in Bahrain where the Royal Family is employing mercenaries to shoot down protesters. Bahrain, though tiny in size and oil production, is an island in one of the world's most vital shipping lanes and home to the United States' Fifth Fleet.

It is close to Iran and attached to Saudi Arabia by a causeway. The Royal Family are Sunni Muslims, the people are mostly Shias. In Iran the majority are Shias and in Saudi Arabia Sunnis. It's a right mix up, but religion is not key to the general unrest, it is the new generation which disputes the legitimacy of despots and governments who have
outlasted their time. They will not disappear in the face of governmental brutality and are prepared for sacrifice and martyrdom if necessary.

As Iranian warships are reportedly trying to pass through Egypt's Suez Canal, investor behavior reflects a general sense of foreboding. The price of oil is volatile and topped US$100/barrel last week while gold is climbing once again. It has taken people time to appreciate just how serious the problems in the Middle East are becoming, but they realize now that that the situation will take months, if not years, to be sorted. In such circumstances gold is the natural hedge and demand from all over the world will be outstripping supply with an inevitable impact on price.

[Skol]

Doesn't look to me like gold shares are going anywhere, possibly prognosticating a high in gold.
XGD,OGC,NCM all down.
Lower highs and lower lows maybe?

[elZorro]

Doesn't look to me like gold shares are going anywhere, possibly prognosticating a high in gold.
XGD,OGC,NCM all down.
Lower highs and lower lows maybe?

Hi Skol, actually, it looks like the record gold price in dollar terms might be broken soon. The US$ is also collapsing today, doesn't help your cause.

[elZorro]

There's some doubt the North African crises will continue to have a big effect on gold, but this article suggests next week will be bullish for gold and silver.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-25/gold-heading-for-longest-weekly-gain-since-october-on-middle-east-tensions.html

[STRAT]

There's some doubt the North African crises will continue to have a big effect on gold, but this article suggests next week will be bullish for gold and silver.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-25/gold-heading-for-longest-weekly-gain-since-october-on-middle-east-tensions.htmlGolds been lookin alright all month. In US dollars at least.

[Phaedrus]

Rose-tinted glasses are pretty much a necessity for this one eh Strat?

In real terms over the 6 months covered by the chart, Gold has fallen.

Over the same period, the AllOrds Index has risen from 4356 to 4925.

[STRAT]

Rose-tinted glasses are pretty much a necessity for this one eh Strat?

In real terms over the 6 months covered by the chart, Gold has fallen.

Over the same period, the AllOrds Index has risen from 4356 to 4925.Hi Phaedrus.
Perhaps that should be green(back) tinted glasses :p. Thats the thing eh?. Every means of measure has a moving base. Its clear that in Aussie dollars its gone nowhere but the Aussie dollar is a moving base too. The big question is how do we define real terms?:confused:

[Phaedrus]

Its clear that in Aussie dollars gold has gone nowhere but the Aussie dollar is a moving base too. The big question is how do we define real terms?I guess that for me it means a currency other than the weak and falling US dollar, preferably one that I have some use for. Ideally this would be Aussie dollars because this is where I have been making the most money lately and if something else like gold is a better investment than ASX stocks then I want to know about it and be into it. To enable fair and meaningful comparison I must therefore follow the gold price in Aus dollars.

[stevo1]

The Aussie gold stocks that I have been holding have risen 80% approx Phaedrus on the back of a rising gold price and strangely enough one of them not even looking for gold in Aussie:).So for me gold price has gone up in $AU.Strangely enough NEM no longer listed on the ASX has gone sideways:(.So gold in $US for me has gone nowhere .Go figure

[hal]

I guess that for me it means a currency other than the weak and falling US dollar, preferably one that I have some use for. Ideally this would be Aussie dollars because this is where I have been making the most money lately and if something else like gold is a better investment than ASX stocks then I want to know about it and be into it. To enable fair and meaningful comparison I must therefore follow the gold price in Aus dollars.

Silver has been going great from the $26 low in January

[elZorro]

China (public and others) buying silver and gold on any dips, according to many.

http://goldfuture.wordpress.com/2011/02/09/the-china-factor-a-changing-paradigm-for-gold-2911/

[airedale]

Doesn't look to me like gold shares are going anywhere, possibly prognosticating a high in gold.
XGD,OGC,NCM all down.
Lower highs and lower lows maybe?
Five days on the gold thread without a post from Skol. :ohmy: I don't believe it!:)

[Skol]

Five days on the gold thread without a post from Skol. :ohmy: I don't believe it!:)

When it's over it's over, lower highs and lower lows, I've lost interest. Since 24th Feb.

On the 24th XGD 7784, now 7600.
OGC 2.74, now 2.59, closing in on the low for the last year.
NCM 39.11, now 37.70, lower highs and lower lows.

In the meantime gold's gone up, but I can't figure out why.

[JBmurc]

When it's over it's over, lower highs and lower lows, I've lost interest. Since 24th Feb.

On the 24th XGD 7784, now 7600.
OGC 2.74, now 2.59, closing in on the low for the year.
NCM 39.11, now 37.70, lower highs and lower lows.

In the meantime gold's gone up, but I can't figure out why.

Yes I know what you mean SKOL I feel the same why about the anti PGM posts

by the way Silver is 1c off $34oz USD no make that 34.04 now