Gold

[miner]

Some people love gold some hate it while others just make money out of it.

[elZorro]

Some people love gold some hate it while others just make money out of it.

There once was a trader called Skol
Who lost the odd bet on gold
He couldn't refrain
From pouring rain
On goldbugs who oversold


P.S. Thanks for your posts Skol, I don't think of the gold story in black and white, we need to see both sides of the argument.

[airedale]

"Goldbugs take themselves very seriously and on another forum I've been abused, and on 3 occasions been accused of being an agent of the 'banksters' or JP Morgan. It's hard not to take the p*** out of people like that so why disappoint them?"

Skol, I am amazed that you also find the time to post on other forums.:)

[inghamp]

Well watch this space because one of JB's heroes is a dude called Jim Sinclair who seem to be psychic. He's predicted gold will reach $1650 by the 2nd week of January 2011.

Goldbugs take themselves very seriously and on another forum I've been abused, and on 3 occasions been accused of being an agent of the 'banksters' or JP Morgan. It's hard not to take the p*** out of people like that so why disappoint them?

So the other day after one of these allegations I said OK, you guys have outed me, I admit it, I work for JP Morgan and Jamie Dimon's sent me to the antipodes to demoralise the goldbugs and buy up all the cheap gold I can find before hyperinflation sets in and you buy a loaf of bread with a wheelbarrow of useless fiat money.. Once the hyperinflation sets in I told them us guys are gonna do a 'pump 'n' dump', that'll be just before Obama gives the signal to sell 5000 tonnes of gold from Fort Knox. Naturally we'd like to make a few bill on the way down too, so we'll be selling heaps of gold futures once it gets to the top. etc etc.

Unfortunately my post was moderated. By a goldbug.
.

I feel for you Skol.. abused.. hilarious.. why would they get so emotionally involved?
At least we don't do that here..

[Skol]

I feel for you Skol.. abused.. hilarious.. why would they get so emotionally involved?
At least we don't do that here..

No, that's true, you guys are much more civilised. Some get very wound up about it, put me on ignore, or often they'll start another thread if they can't counter my argument.

I've got a bit of time on my hands at the moment but back to the mill later this week. Off to the USA.

Keep it to yourself but I'm off to JPM's HQ to report on my campaign against the downunder goldbugs and tell Jamie to keep those silver shorts firmly in place. LOL

[shasta]

No, that's true, you guys are much more civilised. Some get very wound up about it, put me on ignore, or often they'll start another thread if they can't counter my argument.

I've got a bit of time on my hands at the moment but back to the mill later this week. Off to the USA.

Keep it to yourself but I'm off to JPM's HQ to report on my campaign against the downunder goldbugs and tell Jamie to keep those silver shorts firmly in place. LOL

Make sure the yanks arent using there $75b monthly injection on Gold or other precious metals over there won't ya, they meant to be buying Govt bonds apparently

[elZorro]

Changing fashion for gold in India:

http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Now-Indians-go-for-gold-coins-33203-3-1.html

Today, the US$basket and US$PoG are heading in opposite directions - even before US trading - has hit $1405/oz. Maybe we'll see something spectacular overnight.

[lewinsky]

Just as a diversion, this is very funny, but alas has an element of truth.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=brb8u0WV9ZA

[Skol]

Headlines in the USA today:
GET BACK INTO STOCKS.

5 top advisers give their choices for 2011.
One says buy the USD, good advice in my opinion.

"Steer clear of gold, says Richard Bernstein of Bernstein Advisers. With the yellow metal trading near $1400, stories about gold vending machines making headlines, the dollar appreciating again and inflation subdued, gold amounts to a 'momentum play' he says.
Momentum markets are a lot of fun. The problem is: They go down faster than they go up. We're in the seventh, eighth or ninth inning of the gold story. I'd be looking for stories other than gold."

[Huang Chung]

Wow, just read Tricha's post on the "currencies, gold silver and oil" thread.

All I know is that someone is going to be very wrong....

[JBmurc]

March 09 the DOW was at 6600 now 11491 can't say that stocks are undervalued esp. when you look at the ever increasing debt to keep the US economy ticking along with most of the debt funding coming from the free money printers at the FED --whats in store in 2011 more money printing more debt for the yanks to keep it's superpower status

the USD is up 6% for the last 52weeks

jim rogers--inflation,harry,larry,barry
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0jIEo8SJAJE

In many ways Britain USA are bankrupt muti tillions debt and rising with only deficits how can you pay down debt if at every Qtr year etc you lose money pretty simple really an it's really become the norm for many western economies looking towards the future to growth in the mean time debt keep the living stardards Wars in balance

[Skol]

What we really need to know from the you and the goldbugs JB is when is the USD gonna be worth nothing and hyperinflation sets in.
The definition of hyperinflation is inflation of 50% per month. Can you see that?

Maybe the Ludwig Von Mises institute can do a bit of crystal ball gazing for us.

LOL

[Silverlight]

Graphed a price of returns on 100k since 1990, by buying gold, investing in an interest bearing account at 6%, or buying a median priced house in NZ. Obviously doesn't take into account the storage costs costs and insurance on gold, or rates, insurance etc on a house, or tax on the interest bearing account. (10 year return for govt bond is 6.6%).

[JBmurc]

What we really need to know from the you and the goldbugs JB is when is the USD gonna be worth nothing and hyperinflation sets in.
The definition of hyperinflation is inflation of 50% per month. Can you see that?

Maybe the Ludwig Von Mises institute can do a bit of crystal ball gazing for us.

LOL

I can't see hyperinflation or the crashing of the USD happening overnight not while the FED prints trillions free money to hold it up and the fact most other large currencies are trying to keep their currencies low aka the ongoing currency wars

Gold silver oil suger corn nat gas etc etc are all going higher as for USD I wouldn't invest even with your money SKOL but you go ahead

[Skol]

Gold silver oil suger corn nat gas etc etc are all going higher as for USD I wouldn't invest even with your money SKOL but you go ahead

Not many punters in the USA agree with you on the USD. I've read the USA Today & the WSJ for the last 3 days and 2 Barrons magazines, with lots of forecasts for 2011.
No one says the USD is headed south, in fact the opposite.
I drip-feed into USD on a monthly basis, so I'm expecting to do well, especially since the Wall Street guys in Barrons expect the S&P to go up about 15% in 2011. Some expect 21%.

USD up = gold and silver down

[Skol]

Here's a boondoggle for ya.

44 gold mining company execs were interviewed and 75% say gold will increase in value until the 4th qtr of 2011.

82% of the same dudes say gold production will increase.

Well blow me down, what else are they gonna say? LOL

May as well interview the World Gold Council.

[elZorro]

Graphed a price of returns on 100k since 1990, by buying gold, investing in an interest bearing account at 6%, or buying a median priced house in NZ. Obviously doesn't take into account the storage costs costs and insurance on gold, or rates, insurance etc on a house, or tax on the interest bearing account. (10 year return for govt bond is 6.6%).

Very interesting, Silverlight. Gold has reasserted itself against bank interest and property prices, but is hardly in a bubble when put in its place. It has done most of that improvement in the last five of the previous 20 years. We are living in strange times.

[JBmurc]

[QUOTE=Skol;330780]Not many punters in the USA agree with you on the USD. I've read the USA Today & the WSJ for the last 3 days and 2 Barrons magazines, with lots of forecasts for 2011.
No one says the USD is headed south, in fact the opposite.

Well you said the same about Gold at the end of last year looking forward to your shout

[Silverlight]

USD up = gold and silver down

Not actually true Skol. I agree with you that I think the USD will apreciate relative to other currencies in the near term, however, I also think Gold will continue to move up as well. Crazy talk I know.

The USD is only value in comparison to another currency, if the other currency is junk then all you get is a lot of volatility between the two junk currencies.

The EUR is trashed, Greece owes 1.2 trillion (250k euro per citizen), portugal, spain 20%+ unemployment, the only way to pay off their debts is inflation.

The only country in Europe doing well is Germany, and they won't want their fiscal responsibility inflated away, so sooner or later their citizens will demand their own currency again.

As the USD appreciates see how much the NZD gets worse against the AUD or the loonie, all this irresponsibility has to be paid off sometime, you either get huge taxes or $100 bottles of coke.

[skid]

I think alot of people have gotten distracted with the price of gold-The POG is just an indicator of the state of the world economies-When they stabelize and start representing real value then the price of gold will drop-do you see this happening soon? Dont think Gold-think world economies,esp-USA

[JBmurc]

I think alot of people have gotten distracted with the price of gold-The POG is just an indicator of the state of the world economies-When they stabelize and start representing real value then the price of gold will drop-do you see this happening soon? Dont think Gold-think world economies,esp-USA

Yeah of course if the US,UK etc wasn't so deep into debt with on-going deficits having to print trillion of paper promises IOUs,buy their own debt bonds etc GOLD would be on the go slow ticking up 2-4% ea year with inflation Fact is anyone that does any study knows mass debasing of ones economic currencies nearly always leads to high inflation and the devaluing of that currency against real assets

[shasta]

Yeah of course if the US,UK etc wasn't so deep into debt with on-going deficits having to print trillion of paper promises IOUs,buy their own debt bonds etc GOLD would be on the go slow ticking up 2-4% ea year with inflation Fact is anyone that does any study knows mass debasing of ones economic currencies nearly always leads to high inflation and the devaluing of that currency against real assets

Bit of short covering going on, when are the silver shorts going to be covered?

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/markets/gold-climbs-on-euro-zone-worries/story-e6frg91o-1225974255569

[Skol]

There's just been a debate on TV about gold.
One guy says it will be the worst bet in 2011, he expects it shortly to drop to around 1100 over a month or so. Another dude on the show says he expects it to drop by 300/400 points over 2 or 3 days.

Dollar is up.
Recovery on track.
Stockmarkets up.
Interest rates edging up.
Institutions have begun to sell according to one guy and proved it.

And the other usual things, no industrial use, no interest, cost of storage and insurance, etc. etc.

[JBmurc]

There's just been a debate on TV about gold.
One guy says it will be the worst bet in 2011, he expects it shortly to drop to around 1100 over a month or so. Another dude on the show says he expects it to drop by 300/400 points over 2 or 3 days.

Dollar is up.
Recovery on track.
Stockmarkets up.
Interest rates edging up.
Institutions have begun to sell according to one guy and proved it.

And the other usual things, no industrial use, no interest, cost of storage and insurance, etc. etc.

Well And these wouldn't be the same guys that said property wouldn't crash in value and gold would never break 1000 and Oil would stay below $50bbl etc etc

they never get it wrong but the guys that get it right they don't have a clue the Max Kaisers,Jim rogers,Marc faber that have been getting it right for many years can't be listen to no listen to the ones that get it wrong time an time again

[shasta]

Well And these wouldn't be the same guys that said property wouldn't crash in value and gold would never break 1000 and Oil would stay below $50bbl etc etc

they never get it wrong but the guys that get it right they don't have a clue the Max Kaisers,Jim rogers,Marc faber that have been getting it right for many years can't be listen to no listen to the ones that get it wrong time an time again

Those that got it right are probably off enjoying it, those who didn't still talk about it, like an obessesion!

[elZorro]

NZ Post to Skol:

Dear Mr Skol, we do not recommend you send such a valuable bottle of wine through the standard system. In any case, you are sending it a bit late, but we are happy to place it on the highest priority Courier. You'll just need to pay a bit more.
Invoice attached..

[Skol]

www.cnbc.com/id/40754977

Sounds OK, but I would have thought $250 was a bit light.

[Skol]

Well And these wouldn't be the same guys that said property wouldn't crash in value and gold would never break 1000 and Oil would stay below $50bbl etc

I said property would crash and I said oil would crash, way before they did. it's common sense, get enough suckers on board and look out below.

People never learn , bubbles aren't apparent until it's too late. I've got a friend who's licking his wounds to the tune of $485,000 after ignoring my advice. I'm not psychic by the way.

[skid]

As long as they keep throwing money at this situation,things will stay afloat until at some point the s--t will hit the fan.Thats not a recovery in my opinion...Im happy to hold on to my small parcel of gold insurance..

[Silverlight]

http://www.gold-speculator.com/daily-wealth/44998-how-spot-top-gold-market.html

[Skol]

Not gold speculator.com or the World Gold Council.

www.cnbc.com/id/40255706

[JBmurc]

The gold bubble finally bursts, with gold stocks falling 20 percent, but other commodities and commodity stocks continue to outperform as global demand for copper and other base metals improves

Well if that does happen I'll make a mint as my Gold focus makes up less than 20% of my shares I have much ore in Iron ore,Silver base metals Oil gas even though I can't see Gold heading to $250 any time soon an if anything it will kick back into gear during 2011 and all the nobs talking up end of the gold run will go and hide and in time these same guys will be talking up GOLD along with the majority of investors then I'll be worried when everyone telling me to buy up large but at this stage with 8 of 10 analysts/forecasters believing the Debt riddled currencies will not debase there value against real hard assets an in turn be great investments (talk about leading the people aboard the titanic before setting off)

Hows my 100 bottle wine coming along SKOL

[elZorro]

Not gold speculator.com or the World Gold Council.

www.cnbc.com/id/40255706 (http://www.cnbc.com/id/40255706)

Who is this guy??



Robert Pisani has been a news correspondent for financial news network CNBC (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CNBC) since 1990. Pisani largely covered the real estate industry and corporate management until 1997. Since then he has reported live from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_Stock_Exchange), surrounded by the flurry of floor traders (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Floor_trader) doing business. He mainly focuses on activity in major stock market indices, such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dow_Jones_Industrial_Average) and the S&P 500 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500).
Pisani was twice nominated for a CableACE award (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CableACE_Award), in 1993 and 1995, but has never won. He also co-wrote a book with his father Ralph called How to be a Successful Developer. He and his father also taught a course on real estate development at the Wharton School of Business (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wharton_School_of_Business) at the University of Pennsylvania (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_Pennsylvania) from 1987 to 1992.
Pisani is frequently and jokingly called the "Italian Stallion" and "Cool Breeze" by fellow CNBC personality Mark Haines (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Haines). "Cool Breeze" is a reference to Pisani's interest in Jazz.
In December 2006, Mad Money (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mad_Money) host Jim Cramer (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Cramer) used Pisani as an example of an easily manipulated reporter used by hedge fund (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hedge_fund) managers to spread false statements (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_statement) about a company in order to illegally drive the stock price down. Cramer said, "It’s really important to get the Pisanis of the world and people talking about it as if there is something wrong...".[1] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Pisani#cite_note-0)[2] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Pisani#cite_note-1) Cramer has since apologized to Pisani.


I read somewhere recently that the Financial Times has historically been bearish on gold. So I'm interested to see where your quotes come from Skol..:)

I'm wondering how a real estate commentator can be used as a gauge on the price of gold (and many other things by the look of it) going down by 20% in 2011. No justification, not +/-5%, but exactly 20%? Would you put a bet on that?

[Skol]

Who is this guy??



I read somewhere recently that the Financial Times has historically been bearish on gold. So I'm interested to see where your quotes come from Skol..:)

I'm wondering how a real estate commentator can be used as a gauge on the price of gold (and many other things by the look of it) going down by 20% in 2011. No justification, not +/-5%, but exactly 20%? Would you put a bet on that?

I read the FT often and I'm not surprised. The World Gold Council and Jim Sinclair whoever he is are bullish on gold, are you surprised?

The FT has no axe to grind, it's a professional publication unlike rumours the Aden sisters are likely to spread.

20%, so what, it's all a guess anyway.

Here's a fact!

Gold has increased in value by .6% p.a. since 1802. So it's due for a big correction.

[JBmurc]

Nasty chart for the good old USA--But skol I here the Recovery is on track so millions of jobs on the way maybe the FED will employ them they make money out of thin air -- Many major US businesses have moved manufacturing away from the US to better lower costs lower tax countries--Worldwide major exporters/Importers Russia,Brazil,China,India,other Asian/euro countries etc etc are now trading with each other in their own currencies they don't what anymore USD than they have to take on they know the future of the superpower will wane as will it's control and power of the USD
As for GOLD it will continue to be the true world currency,, true wealth doesn't matter what anyone in power or what some free money manipulators try to do and what some reporter/analyst states and neither does many bullion holders only the Skols of the world seem to have some addictive hate towards PG Metals well unlike your precious USD PG Metals will still hold value till mankind is long gone USD is doomed in it current form to devalue like every other paper currency has done in history

[lewinsky]

Wishing everyone a golden christmas and a new year which has many silver linings.

This thread has been really interesting and wonder whether allied to the stock picking contest we should have a resource price picks.

Gold
Silver
Oil
Uranium

predictions for the price at december 31 2011.

All the best everyone.

LEW.

[Skol]

NZ Post to Skol:

Dear Mr Skol, we do not recommend you send such a valuable bottle of wine through the standard system. In any case, you are sending it a bit late, but we are happy to place it on the highest priority Courier. You'll just need to pay a bit more.
Invoice attached..

What's with OGC, EZ? looks like it's in freefall.

[elZorro]

What's with OGC, EZ? looks like it's in freefall.

Season's Greetings Skol, trust we'll have a bit more banter next year. I have enjoyed it, might even be learning something. Like, what goes up might come down..
But for once in the last week I was selling OGC as it rose, because I couldn't find any reason for it to go up. I will buy back in once it looks like a better deal. I might even have another bet with you about its direction in 2011. Will you be repeating the GOLD bet with JB? Certainly fodder for some posts so I hope so..I expect JB will post a picture of the bottle of Champagne when it arrives, so we can see it in all its glory.

I cannot help but be buoyed by the mining sector, these guys are generally making money no problem. I should have been buying shares in suppliers to the industry, instead of an individual miner.

Have a good holiday everyone.

[Skol]

Something that's always intrigued me about gold is the goldbugs attachment to it.

You see a media commentator write a newspaper or internet article disagreeing with the goldbugs and this brings hordes
of furious emails, and abuse on goldbug websites, some I would describe as hate mail. I've been called all kinds of things which is one of the reasons I suppose I'm attracted to the debate.

You don't see investors getting excited over pork bellies, steers, or copper and engaging in name calling etc.

Why is that? It's a cult mentality.

The only reason I can think of is that this is a once-in-a-generation chance for the goldbugs to strike it rich, and anyone who stands in the way is the enemy.

[elZorro]

Something that's always intrigued me about gold is the goldbugs attachment to it.

You see a media commentator write a newspaper or internet article disagreeing with the goldbugs and this brings hordes
of furious emails, and abuse on goldbug websites, some I would describe as hate mail. I've been called all kinds of things which is one of the reasons I suppose I'm attracted to the debate.

You don't see investors getting excited over pork bellies, steers, or copper and engaging in name calling etc.

Why is that? It's a cult mentality.

The only reason I can think of is that this is a once-in-a-generation chance for the goldbugs to strike it rich, and anyone who stands in the way is the enemy.

I agree, but you can't blame us for hoping to make money the easy way Skol..

I just found this academic article via Wikipedia. (http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/7qk9z9kz#page-1) It it, is some of the kind of stochastic maths that could only appeal to manic mathematicians. Luckily the paper is peer reviewed already (must be good then) and so no-one should wait the several years it would take me to learn enough to check it over. However, this paper says that the US$ gold price is relatively predictable, has some tidy oscillations that help, and that the gold price should collapse sometime between April and June 2011.

The authors go on to say that this will only be a possibility if China, USA or some of the big players don't do anything radical, and if the market pays no heed to this mathematical prediction either. Otherwise it's a non-self-fulfilling prophecy! They also point out that it's not altogether a bad thing if the stockmarket spends more effort on productive investments, to help in a faltering recovery afterwards. I thought you'd like this paper Skol, but if it's correct, we have a short window early next year to make some spectacular returns, as long as we're not too worried about who will carry the can at the end of it. It does look like gold will recover back to a high point if you wait long enough, it's a big cycle.

[Skol]

You might be too late EZ.

China raised interest rates yesterday, the last time this happened gold took quite a hit. No Xmas present for the goldbugs.

Gold isn't the only commodity to do well, heaps have in the last 12 months, steers for example are up 25%.

Post your equation on Hot Copper and watch the goldbugs instantaneous irate reaction. I've had a read through that, it's certainly food for thought.

[Skol]

Just been watching BBC news on TV, Airbus sold 440 aircraft this year.

The world's going down the toilet?

I doubt it.

[JBmurc]

Don't worry EZ me an Skol got a new bet on Silver for next year Personal much like this year Silver will be one of the best resources to be invested in for 2011 ARD will boom boom
Yeah I will post a pic of SKOL $100 bottle of wine with receipt when I receive it...

[Skol]

From Reuters yesterday.


SHANGHAI/HONG KONG | Sun Dec 26, 2010 2:48am EST

Commodity markets in China will likely see a sharp negative correction on Monday, with a chance some could test recently expanded downside limits. The opportunity to cash in on prices at or near their highest in years before the year end could mean the correction this time may be greater than the losses following the last interest rate rise in October.

That sent the dollar higher, dragged gold down by more than 2 percent, oil fell 4 percent, copper lost almost 2.5 percent, while wheat fell 2.7 percent and corn, 2 percent.

But analysts said it did not spell the end of the commodities rally, as corrections in markets, including copper, corn and soy -- key imports for China -- would be viewed as buying opportunities.

[elZorro]

You might be too late EZ.

China raised interest rates yesterday, the last time this happened gold took quite a hit. No Xmas present for the goldbugs.

Gold isn't the only commodity to do well, heaps have in the last 12 months, steers for example are up 25%.

Post your equation on Hot Copper and watch the goldbugs instantaneous irate reaction. I've had a read through that, it's certainly food for thought.

The paper is very recent, late November 2010 I think. I hadn't noticed that they'd checked the date of collapse against two other equation methods, all worked out within the range above.



Abstract: This working paper analyzes the gold price dynamics on the basis of methodology developed by Didier Sornette. Our calculations indicate that this dynamics is close to the one of the “bubbles” studied by Sornette and that the most probable timing of the “burst of the gold bubble” is April – June 2011. The obtained result has been additionally checked with two different methods. First of all, we have compared the pattern of changes of the forecasted timing of the gold bubble crash with the retrospective changes of forecasts of the oil bubble crash (that took place in July 2008). This comparison indicates that the period when the timing of the crash tended to change is close to the end, and the burst of the gold bubble is the most probable in May or June 2011. Secondly, we used the estimates of critical time for the hyperbolic trend (that has been shown in our previous publications to be typical for many socioeconomic processes). Our calculations with this method also indicate May – June 2011 as the most probable time of the burst of the gold bubble. Naturally, this forecast should not be regarded as an exact prediction as this implies the stability of the finance policies of the USA, European Union, and China, whereas a significant intervention of giant players (like the Federal Reserve System, or the Central Bank of China) could affect the course of the exchange game in a rather significant way. We also analyze possible consequences of the burst of the “gold bubble”.



In fact the favoured Sornette method predicted late April to early May 2011. Of course this is very interesting, not only to anyone who owns gold in any form, but also producing miners. Even explorers are not immune to large gold price changes. Apart from short-term market plays and dilution, OGC has been following the US$gold price for months, maybe a lot longer. I'm a lot more confident in these complex equations than the trigger points that TA puts up, because you get the big picture. Maybe TA work armed with an overview would work well.

JB, enjoy your hard-earned champagne :)

[Skol]

I was watching a debate the other day on CNBC.
Pete Najarian says when the day of reckoning arrives for gold he expects it to collapse $300/400 in 3/4 days.

[airedale]

I was watching a debate the other day on CNBC.
Pete Najarian says when the day of reckoning arrives for gold he expects it to collapse $300/400 in 3/4 days.

That would bring the price of oil back to $20-$30 per barrel..... most unlikely imho.

[Skol]

Maybe I should have been more specific, he expects the price to decrease by $300/$400 over 3 or 4 days, i.e. to around $1000.

Why does the POO have to drop? In EZ's theorem above, if you read it , a collapse in the gold price would mean temporary abherrations for most commodities but the money exiting the gold trade would inevitably end up somewhere else.

When gold implodes, imho it will completely disconnect from other commodities because it has no use.

Steers, soy beans, oil, corn, etc, will continue to increase because the demand's there, you can't eat or fill your car with gold.

Some say it's not a bubble yet, but no one knows, it's only a bubble in retrospect, and it will burst, but for some reason the goldbugs reckon the chart has to reach some special parabolic stage. It might, or it might not.

[elZorro]

Maybe I should have been more specific, he expects the price to decrease by $300/$400 over 3 or 4 days, i.e. to around $1000.

Why does the POO have to drop? In EZ's theorem above, if you read it , a collapse in the gold price would mean temporary abherrations for most commodities but the money exiting the gold trade would inevitably end up somewhere else.

When gold implodes, imho it will completely disconnect from other commodities because it has no use.

Steers, soy beans, oil, corn, etc, will continue to increase because the demand's there, you can't eat or fill your car with gold.

Some say it's not a bubble yet, but no one knows, it's only a bubble in retrospect, and it will burst, but for some reason the goldbugs reckon the chart has to reach some special parabolic stage. It might, or it might not.

Skol, it's a pity the paper didn't show how the curve and its special point of interest mapped in the future. I think Airdale is also referring to the linkage of oil with gold (see the Peak oil Thread). I wasn't aware of this, will be looking at it next year for sure. Gold takes a lot of energy to produce (OGC's costs per ounce are certainly going up) and so it has historically been linked to the price of energy (along with oil of course), in theory. If there was to be a dire shortage of oil or energy that wasn't replaced somehow, then you'd expect the gold price to increase with it.

Time for some fishing, cheers everyone.

[JBmurc]

worth a watch esp the SKOL's of the world ---It's time to wake up

-http://dailybail.com/home/meredith-whitney-chris-christie-on-60-minutes-illinois-calif.html

[Skol]

Big deal JB, it's all been done before, New York was bankrupt a few years back.

Even if one of the PIIGs go bust the EU will bail them out, the reasons for owning gold just don't exist.

I reckon its time you jumped on an airplane, left Queenstown and ventured out into the real world for a while.

I went to a mall yesterday, couldn't find any parking. My wife wanted a new appliance so into one of the stores where it was so busy there were queues at the 6 checkouts. In a conversation with one of the staff, I said there's supposed to be a recession on, she said "it's crazy".

One of my relatives build coolstores, on Xmas day he told me they've got 6 months work on the books and they're hiring staff.

The redundant Pike River coal miners have had their phones running hot with job offers from Australia.

According to the WSJ, Americans are heading to the lucky country to work in the mining industry becuase of a labour shortage.

Air NZ has lots of new aircraft on order (777's and A320's) and has just bought one of their leased 747's.

Flights to and from the USA, the UK and across the Tasman are booked out months in advance.

Go out to Auckland airport and have a look at the work, hotels, acres of new car parks, shops, terminal expansion, roading, commercial property, restaurants, mobs at check-in counters etc.

My daughter works at an upmarket, expensive, clothing shop in the holidays; she got a bonus because they've consistently beat their target. She says they're very busy, guys walk in and spend $1000.

Yeah, buy lots of gold JB, the end of days is in sight. Might be in ZQN, but not in the real world.

If I owned gold I wouldn't be able to get rid of it fast enough.

Maybe you should read todays Herald about the traffic jams exiting Auckland as the redundant, debt-laden, overcommitted, poverty-stricken proletariat leave the city for their holidays towing their boats and caravans.

[JBmurc]

Yeah and look at are massive Public debt problem's NZ$10.5 billion increase in New Zealand's borrowing programme over the next three years.
We are now borrowing almost NZ$300 million a week!!
We are increasing our net foreign debt at a time when countries with similar levels of debt to us are being punished.

How many of those shoppers are buying rubbish they don't really need are using their own cash not many I'd say most will be on the old credit card

We have one of the highest Debt to income levels in the western world "buy now pay later"

Also I buy Silver bullion--not Gold Bullion only told you that round a doz times ,but I guess when your looking through those rose-tinted glasses your miss the facts

[shasta]

Yeah and look at are massive Public debt problem's NZ$10.5 billion increase in New Zealand's borrowing programme over the next three years.
We are now borrowing almost NZ$300 million a week!!
We are increasing our net foreign debt at a time when countries with similar levels of debt to us are being punished.

How many of those shoppers are buying rubbish they don't really need are using their own cash not many I'd say most will be on the old credit card

We have one of the highest Debt to income levels in the western world "buy now pay later"

Also I buy Silver bullion--not Gold Bullion only told you that round a doz times ,but I guess when your looking through those rose-tinted glasses your miss the facts

Wonder how many of those on a big spend up (from Skol's post) were using credit cards recklessly?

We arent just a buy now pay later society (& with 19%+ credit card interest rates) or owing the local loan shark, we are piss poor savers

America is no different, all those homes in mortgage default cos the banks lent 100% (& in some cases more!), not to mention when ya 18 a host of credit cards come in the mail!

We still have 6 months of further $US75b a month injections into the US economy, so i still see, Gold & Silver as continuing there strong upwards trends

When the US finally stops printing money, perhaps the $US will start to turn around & then, Gold might take a breather, but only when retail demand falls

[Skol]

Here's a few more that come to mind since this morning:

170,000 tonnes of air cargo shipped through LAX last month - a record.

For the first time, 1,000,000 cars are on track to be sold in Australia in a year. A record year for Mercedes Benz.

2010 orders for Boeing - 493, Airbus - 440

Retail sales in the USA up 5.5% and online sales up 15% over last year.

Increases in % for commodities this year:

Oil up 27%.
Copper up 30%.
Cotton up 112%
Corn up 61%
Soybeans up 35%
Steers up 25%
Wheat up 60%.

Social unrest in China, demand for food is pushing prices out of reach of the proletariat. Looks like the government is going to intervene.

The world's falling to pieces all right.

[JBmurc]

Here's a few more that come to mind since this morning:

170,000 tonnes of air cargo shipped through LAX last month - a record.

For the first time, 1,000,000 cars are on track to be sold in Australia in a year. A record year for Mercedes Benz.

2010 orders for Boeing - 493, Airbus - 440

Retail sales in the USA up 5.5% and online sales up 15% over last year.

Increases in % for commodities this year:

Oil up 27%.
Copper up 30%.
Cotton up 112%
Corn up 61%
Soybeans up 35%
Steers up 25%
Wheat up 60%.

Social unrest in China, demand for food is pushing prices out of reach of the proletariat. Looks like the government is going to intervene.

The world's falling to pieces all right.

No but many of the world paper currencies are on the edge

try and get a large amount of Silver bullion at the moment silver bullion prices are 80%+ higher than what I was paying 12months ago and still only a tiny amount of people are buying

[JBmurc]

I've been having a debate on another thread with JBMurc on gold.
Personally I think it's going to be a fizzer and we've seen the highs for the next few years.
I reckon the stockmarkets could do well for a while and when the gold bugs, most of whom are new at the game realise what they're missing out on will jump ship and cash in their yellow metal.

Opportunity cost, insurance and safekeeping make it a risky investment and in the event of a real crisis you probably couldn't sell it, divide it into smaller pieces or eat it.

Warren Buffet agrees with me and reckons it's a waste of time. The rationale for gold bugs bullishness is the coming implosion of the $US they say.

The USA virtually paid for World War 2, Berlin Airlift and the Cold War for another 50 years all done with debt, like the stimulus.

The early '80's saw a revival of gold for a short period with investment experts imploring punters to buy gold to avoid the coming meltdown but it ended in tears.


--------JBmurc wins----SKOL-----LOSES ========hows the wine shopping going SKOL will be great for our new year celebrations I indeed to have a few with my mates that like myself brought up large in Silver bullion

[Skol]

Yep, you've won fairly and squarely, but since I'm in foreign climes at the moment you'll have to wait a couple of weeks.

Better send me a PM with an address, just remember, what goes up, must come down, the laws of gravity still apply.

[JBmurc]

Yep, you've won fairly and squarely, but since I'm in foreign climes at the moment you'll have to wait a couple of weeks.

Better send me a PM with an address, just remember, what goes up, must come down, the laws of gravity still apply.

Have sent you a PM with address can send another if it didn't go through..

GOLD-$1422oz SILVER-$30.91oz

Gold:Silver ratio now 45.99:1 ----

[Skol]

Have sent you a PM with address can send another if it didn't go through..

GOLD-$1422oz SILVER-$30.91oz

Gold:Silver ratio now 45.99:1 ----

Silver's up 84% in 2010 and I see you're buying more.

There used to be a guy in the papers a couple of years back called 'steel balls' who took colossal bets, not you is it?

[denpal]

Hey Skol, what about this: how about shorting silver and gold then? Go against the trend? Many gold and silver juniors are up hundreds of % this last year and the Jan-June period is very strong too for this sector, of course with a couple of pullbacks now and then to provide a further opportunity to add to positions. You could go short in June maybe through to September?

[Skol]

Hey Skol, what about this: how about shorting silver and gold then? Go against the trend? Many gold and silver juniors are up hundreds of % this last year and the Jan-June period is very strong too for this sector, of course with a couple of pullbacks now and then to provide a further opportunity to add to positions. You could go short in June maybe through to September?

Hey den,
I'm not stupid, bubbles can go on forever, I'm not psychic. Bigger the boom, bigger the bust.

Here's a quote from the latest Barrons about gold from Kanundrum Capital:

"Almost all demand for gold is investment demand, and investment demand is synonymous with sentiment......the mothers milk of all bubbles."

[JBmurc]

Silver's up 84% in 2010 and I see you're buying more.

There used to be a guy in the papers a couple of years back called 'steel balls' who took colossal bets, not you is it?

84% is only the warm-up 2011 will be the year silver gets into gear and closes the gap on gold in a big way $70-$80oz ,as we have a new bet on silver we have put are money where are mouths are,this time next year one of us will be laughing

[Skol]

Here's a quote from WSJ India.

'With a 66% return for investors in India, silver has outperformed most asset classes in 2010.
But that doesn't mean you should rush to buy silver coins in the New Year.
If anything, the recent steep gains should be cause for skepticism about the potential for further profits.'.
"Maybe the story is already over, we don't know".

A few bubbles might pop this year.
The corn bubble is due to the demand for corn for ethanol. Ethanol is heavily subsidised by the US Govt, and since Obama has lost control of the House these subsidies may be slashed to reduce the deficit, so pop goes the corn bubble.

[JBmurc]

Let's be honest. If even 1% of paper money in US only banks, were to be invested into silver, it would be 50 times greater than the investment demand today, which would be as much as $180 billion dollars, moving into the silver market that only produces 700 million new oz. by the mines each year. $180 billion divided by 700 million implies no silver buying from anywhere else in the entire world, and no silver buying from any kind of industrial application, which implies a lowest possible price of $257/oz., at this "1% demand" level, which would still be, long, long before silver ever gets to be "popular--jason hommel

world population average PER MINUTE: 150 new consuming humans

Rate of Increase in World Population In our existence for the last 52,000 years on this planet Earth, there have been a total of about 106.billion people. Every year we add almost 78 million people to the world population and are rapidly consuming its resources.

In the year 1 AD we were only 300 million and our population was growing slowly at 0.5% per year. At the start of 1980 the world population was 4.4 billion but in 20 years we added over 1.6 billion people and the population was 6 billion. By 2015 it is predicted we will be more than 7 billion. A British Physicist estimated this alarming rise and predicted our current growth as follows-

'At the current rate it would take only about 50 years to populate Venus, Mercury, Mars, the moon, and the moons of Jupiter and Saturn to same population density as Earth. . . It would take only about 200 years to fill [the remaining planets] "Earth-full." . . . What then? .' - J. H. Fremlin

Read more: World Population Clock http://www.medindia.net/patients/calculators/worldpopulation.asp#ixzz19ue0Z7Qf

[JBmurc]

Wall street journal they haven't got it right for the last 7 yrs on precious metals(like they mostly never get anything right)
end of every year they talk it down
WSJ---Silver will average 15 in 2011 --- ya what it's 30.90 now talk about W.T.F--

If I told you to sell or short Gold silver end of every year for the last 7 years and got it wrong every year would you listen to me..

WSJ-may 2008--http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121098087701600147.html

[denpal]

Here's a quote from WSJ India.

'With a 66% return for investors in India, silver has outperformed most asset classes in 2010.
But that doesn't mean you should rush to buy silver coins in the New Year.
If anything, the recent steep gains should be cause for skepticism about the potential for further profits.'.
"Maybe the story is already over, we don't know".

A few bubbles might pop this year.
The corn bubble is due to the demand for corn for ethanol. Ethanol is heavily subsidised by the US Govt, and since Obama has lost control of the House these subsidies may be slashed to reduce the deficit, so pop goes the corn bubble.

Skol, the severe northern hemisphere winter may cause trouble for corn, wheat plantings this year, something to keep an eye on. The "bubble" may not pop as far as corn prices are concerned. The global cooling rather than warming hypothesis suggests we have already entered a longish cooling period. http://www.iceagenow.com/ The Russians were warning us in October even as their wheat crop was being baked on the stalk that this winter would be the coldest for 1,000 years. Florida reports the coldest ever December. In the US the growing zones have already been moved south by USDA prior to this year's troubles........nothing is what it seems, it seems. Human activity and CO2 have hardly anything to do with warming but the sun and it's energy have everything to do with our global temperature. The evidence seems quite good I must say, and accordingly I have changed my view until a better argument can convince me otherwise.

[gazprom1]

Here's a quote from WSJ India.

'With a 66% return for investors in India, silver has outperformed most asset classes in 2010.
But that doesn't mean you should rush to buy silver coins in the New Year.
If anything, the recent steep gains should be cause for skepticism about the potential for further profits.'.
"Maybe the story is already over, we don't know".

A few bubbles might pop this year.
The corn bubble is due to the demand for corn for ethanol. Ethanol is heavily subsidised by the US Govt, and since Obama has lost control of the House these subsidies may be slashed to reduce the deficit, so pop goes the corn bubble.

Hey Skol,

1. Silver going higher in 1st half of 2011...2nd half too hard to gauge at this stage but would hestitate to guess that price will be higher come 31 Dec 2011 than today.
2. The demand for corn will remain...it is no bubble. ALL grains are going to remain firm for the 1st half of 2011- demand v. supply. Also, fert prices are firming and will underpin grain prices. I can't see grain prices going lower for the whole of 2011 but a year out is too hard to guess as we don't know what will happen in Canada / Russia come June/ July.

Gazprom

[tricha]

Wall street journal they haven't got it right for the last 7 yrs on precious metals(like they mostly never get anything right)
end of every year they talk it down
WSJ---Silver will average 15 in 2011 --- ya what it's 30.90 now talk about W.T.F--

If I told you to sell or short Gold silver end of every year for the last 7 years and got it wrong every year would you listen to me..

WSJ-may 2008--http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121098087701600147.html

Skol u do not happen to work for them. :confused: Wall Street Boys.

Skol -36.77%

[Skol]

Skol u do not happen to work for them. :confused: Wall Street Boys.

Skol -36.77%

Tricha,
The man that said I'd be wrong about oil crashing and that airlines were doomed. Too bad you didn't buy shares in airlines.

Bet you're still licking your wounds, Bermuda too.

Bermuda still owes me a lunch in Christchurch after our bet, but with the earthquakes I think I'll forfeit.

Yesterday I read an article that reckons fund managers are watching fund redemptions, especially on big funds like John Paulson's who owns lots of gold.
Any hint of bigger than average redemptions and other fund managers are shorting what he owns because he'll need the cash to pay out.

[Skol]

In todays WSJ says the the gold market is $170b and the silver market is $19b, it's leveraged and mostly investors, so if things go bad, you know what's gonna happen.

[STRAT]

Skol -36.77%Thats a bit unkind Tricha. For most the share picking comp is a hurl into the darkness with a blunt dart. Me included.

[Skol]

Silver down 7% for the week JB.

Got the SILVER FOR SALE signs out?

The party's over.

[BDL]

I know I am pretty new to this chart watching, but is that a head & shoulders on the gold chart.......?

[peat]

I know I am pretty new to this chart watching, but is that a head & shoulders on the gold chart.......?

close to perhaps, though it n eeds to break 1331 to confirm.
more like a triple top imo.

[STRAT]

close to perhaps, though it n eeds to break 1331 to confirm.
more like a triple top imo.Hi Peat.

and a bearish divergence in the RSI just before.

[elZorro]

Don't worry JB, silver rebounded today a bit. What does a triple top do? Here's a prediction that was widely based and fairly accurate last year, average gold price to rise 19% in 2011.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/commodities/gold-prices-to-shoot-up-19-in-2011/articleshow/7247392.cms

[Skol]

Don't worry JB, silver rebounded today a bit. What does a triple top do? Here's a prediction that was widely based and fairly accurate last year, average gold price to rise 19% in 2011.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/commodities/gold-prices-to-shoot-up-19-in-2011/articleshow/7247392.cms

The India Times. Must be desperation setting in, and the 'experts' say gold will 'shoot up' 19% in 2011.

Must be psychic.

OGC, how's that going EZ? Looks terminal.

[elZorro]

The India Times. Must be desperation setting in, and the 'experts' say gold will 'shoot up' 19% in 2011.

Must be psychic.

OGC, how's that going EZ? Looks terminal.

Mate, it's fairly good buying at the moment, if you think gold will hold up. Anyway I only trolled the cyberspace for a couple of minutes to get a positive review on gold, anything for a dig..As per usual I'm making a better return back at work.

I just hope you're packaging up the champers for JB, you can't stay overseas forever..

[peat]

What does a triple top do?

Well at least it shows a strong resistance point which can be a possible potential turning point.

[Skol]

I just hope you're packaging up the champers for JB, you can't stay overseas forever..

It's in the mail tomorrow.

[STRAT]

This will throw a cat amongst the pigeons :D

[stevo1]

Quote from The Australian
The RBA paper noted at the time that gold holdings in the US and Europe remained high, with the US holding 75 per cent of its reserve assets in gold.

"Central banks traditionally hold gold because of its ability to be used in the event of a crisis in the international financial system; it is the only reserve asset that is not a claim on some other government, international institution or bank. However, over the past two or three decades, the world has experienced a number of economic 'crises', but gold played no part in coping with them," the paper said.

The paper argued that continuing development of financial system meant that circumstances which would require Australia to call upon our gold holdings for economic reasons looked increasingly remote.

full article here
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/reserve-banks-gold-sale-cost-us-5bn/story-e6frg6nf-1225985231872

[Skol]

The USA has about 8000 tonnes of it, it's on the books at $42 or so, why not sell some for a nice profit and lower the deficit?

Buy low, sell high.

[stevo1]

The USA has about 8000 tonnes of it, it's on the books at $42 or so, why not sell some for a nice profit and lower the deficit?

Buy low, sell high.

Gee Skol has anyone accused you of having learning difficulties?
Or are you so confident in your own abilities that you can ignore the obvious?
Eventually you will be proved right on gold falling dramatically BUT when?
What year?month?day?
If Reserve Banks with all their rescources can get it so wrong how can we mere mortals (yourself excepted of course ) get it right.
In the past they have had great control(by holding gold) and thus been able to jiggle the fiat economy by convincing people that gold is NOT a good store of wealth(Sell it drive the price down) the other premise is that currency is backed by the underlying strength of the economy(and in USA case taking consumer spending into a measure of their GDP so the more you spend the more your GDP increases.)
In the past the USA has controlled the monetery system.How have they done this?
The short answer is whoever has the greatest military has the strongest currency .
With the emergence of China as the future predominate world power this is changing.You may have noticed the Chinese(Indian )reserve banks are buying gold and commodity based business (shareholdings in miners)
So yeah maybe the US should pay them in gold(sell high) as the Chinese are probably really really really unhappy with receiving US paper which is in effect pushing up inflation into China

[denpal]

Now is a good time to be buying if you believe the gold story. The USD looks like it has run out of steam too with a nice lower top on the chart.

[Skol]

Gee Skol has anyone accused you of having learning difficulties?
Or are you so confident in your own abilities that you can ignore the obvious?
Eventually you will be proved right on gold falling dramatically BUT when?
What year?month?day?
If Reserve Banks with all their rescources can get it so wrong how can we mere mortals (yourself excepted of course ) get it right.
In the past they have had great control(by holding gold) and thus been able to jiggle the fiat economy by convincing people that gold is NOT a good store of wealth(Sell it drive the price down) the other premise is that currency is backed by the underlying strength of the economy(and in USA case taking consumer spending into a measure of their GDP so the more you spend the more your GDP increases.)
In the past the USA has controlled the monetery system.How have they done this?
The short answer is whoever has the greatest military has the strongest currency .
With the emergence of China as the future predominate world power this is changing.You may have noticed the Chinese(Indian )reserve banks are buying gold and commodity based business (shareholdings in miners)
So yeah maybe the US should pay them in gold(sell high) as the Chinese are probably really really really unhappy with receiving US paper which is in effect pushing up inflation into China

A nice goldbug fairytale stevo but not the real world.

I will blow my own trumpet by boasting that I predicted the GFC quite accurately, and reduced my exposure to property and shares accordingly. I fail to understand how others couldn't see it, the writing was on the wall.

Sub-prime was in the news a year before Lehman collapsed and you didn't need to be Albert Einstein to see that property was in a gigantic bubble.

The Chinese gummint own about $1200 tonnes of gold and have not been adding to it as far as I know.

If you think gold's on it's way up, buy some more. Maybe you should read EZ's post about Sornette's theorem, and if you would like my prediction, the gold bubble's over.

The end of the world is not happening.

Following the 1980 gold crash, shares boomed for 7 years and imploded spectacularly, impoverishing loads of careless punters. I cashed up in October 1986, a year before the crash.
If gold crashes, maybe you should buy some shares.

Goldbugs aren't keen to talk about the 1980 gold crash, but "it's different this time", right?

[Phaedrus]

I got badly burnt in the 1980 gold crash.

That's why I'm not keen to talk about it!

[stevo1]

A nice goldbug fairytale stevo but not the real world.

I will blow my own trumpet by boasting that I predicted the GFC quite accurately, and reduced my exposure to property and shares accordingly. I fail to understand how others couldn't see it, the writing was on the wall.

Sub-prime was in the news a year before Lehman collapsed and you didn't need to be Albert Einstein to see that property was in a gigantic bubble.

The Chinese gummint own about $1200 tonnes of gold and have not been adding to it as far as I know.

If you think gold's on it's way up, buy some more. Maybe you should read EZ's post about Sornette's theorem, and if you would like my prediction, the gold bubble's over.

The end of the world is not happening.

Following the 1980 gold crash, shares boomed for 7 years and imploded spectacularly, impoverishing loads of careless punters. I cashed up in October 1986, a year before the crash.
If gold crashes, maybe you should buy some shares.

Goldbugs aren't keen to talk about the 1980 gold crash, but "it's different this time", right?

The difference this time (if indeed there is one) is the shift in technology ,manufacturing and perhaps the finance base away from the west into the hands of Asia.(China)
This is in effect a culture shift that MAY transfer into the monetary system.
Skol why didn't you ride gold up?
You either didnt read that article or did not understand it .
You started this thread on 31/12/2009 i think gold was just over $1100/oz it is now $1375/oz.
So I ask you once again WHEN WILL GOLD FALL ?WHAT YEAR?WHAT MONTH?
You will be right eventually no matter how long it takes.

[Skol]

The difference this time (if indeed there is one) is the shift in technology ,manufacturing and perhaps the finance base away from the west into the hands of Asia.(China)
This is in effect a culture shift that MAY transfer into the monetary system.
Skol why didn't you ride gold up?
You either didnt read that article or did not understand it .
You started this thread on 31/12/2009 i think gold was just over $1100/oz it is now $1375/oz.
So I ask you once again WHEN WILL GOLD FALL ?WHAT YEAR?WHAT MONTH?
You will be right eventually no matter how long it takes.

Firstly, I'm not into gold, I tend to agree with Warren Buffett on that, I just don't understand the goldbug philosophy, lots of goldbugs have all different explanations, I'd sooner take my chances with the more conventional investments.
Goldbugs talk about debt, China, North Korea, the Euro, gold's running out, USD crashing, Fort Knox's empty, Portugal, Spain, Greece, ad infinitum, I could fill this page with them.
What year? 2011, that's about as accurate as I'm prepared to go, probably all over now, one way down.

I watch guys on CNBC or the in the papers shaking their heads trying to work it out, I'm the same. A new generation of goldbugs trying to make their fortune and coming up with same arguments they did in 1980.

Gold's just like anything else where herd instinct takes over, you try and convince the zealots, they're right everyone else is wrong, just like the 'experts' in the 2000 tech wreck, they were on TV telling everyone to get into it and that the days of smokestack industries were over.

I thought gold was overvalued at $1100 and since then it's gone up 25%.

Gold in the monetary system? Dream on!

Anyway stevo, what gold do you own? Shares, buried in the garden, krugerrands, Eagles, ETF's? How's it been going? How high will gold go?

Bought TOL this afternoon, won't be buying gold.

[denpal]

Firstly, I'm not into gold, I tend to agree with Warren Buffett on that, I just don't understand the goldbug philosophy, lots of goldbugs have all different explanations, I'd sooner take my chances with the more conventional investments.
Goldbugs talk about debt, China, North Korea, the Euro, gold's running out, USD crashing, Fort Knox's empty, Portugal, Spain, Greece, ad infinitum, I could fill this page with them.
What year? 2011, that's about as accurate as I'm prepared to go, probably all over now, one way down.

I watch guys on CNBC or the in the papers shaking their heads trying to work it out, I'm the same. A new generation of goldbugs trying to make their fortune and coming up with same arguments they did in 1980.

Gold's just like anything else where herd instinct takes over, you try and convince the zealots, they're right everyone else is wrong, just like the 'experts' in the 2000 tech wreck, they were on TV telling everyone to get into it and that the days of smokestack industries were over.

I thought gold was overvalued at $1100 and since then it's gone up 25%.

Gold in the monetary system? Dream on!

Anyway stevo, what gold do you own? Shares, buried in the garden, krugerrands, Eagles, ETF's? How's it been going? How high will gold go?

Bought TOL this afternoon, won't be buying gold.

Yes, Skol, dreams for goldbugs perhaps nightmares for you? Gold = currency see below. The oil trade with Iran is worth 10Moz gold per annum at 400k bopd.

This article posted at zerohedge.com:

India Offers To Pay For Iran Oil With Gold
Tyler Durden's picture
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/10/2011 13:00 -0500

It appears that gold isn't really a currency... until it is. The Economic Times reports that India is attempting to ensure steady crude oil supplies from Iran. In doing so it is doing everything it can to pay Iran in a way that avoid loopholes associated with recent US sanctions. And the stunner: "India could settle crude oil import transaction using gold in the short term, while efforts to resolve the deadlock continue." But does Iran realize they can't possibly eat all that gold? Or that The Fed has no way of diluting to oblivion? Or that, unlike the dollar, it is currently not involved in a global race to bottom in which every central bank will have no choice but to print ever more of its linen-infused currencies? Something tells us that the answer to all three is yes.

From Economic Times:

India is determined to ensure steady crude oil supplies from Iran and is even considering settling payments with gold in the short term before the two countries agree on a mutually accepted currency and a bank to clear the transactions.

"We have written a letter to NIOC ( National Iranian Oil Company )) asking it to suggest a bank where US sanctions are not applicable," a government official involved in the matter said requesting anonymity.

Another official said India could settle crude oil import transaction using gold in the short term, while efforts to resolve the deadlock continue. An Indian delegation, including officials from ministries of external affairs, finance and petroleum, will visit Tehran next week to thrash out the payment issue, officials said.

Oil industry officials are keenly awaiting a solution as India imports 80% of the 184 million tonne of crude oil it refines every year, and Iran accounts for 16% of these purchases, making it the second-biggest supplier, after Saudi Arabia.

India's crude oil imports from Iran faced an impasse after the Reserve Bank of India declared that a regional clearinghouse that involved the Iranian central bank could no longer be used to settle oil and gas transactions between the two countries.

It appears that it was the United States which itself precipitated this decision to seek potential alternative "currencies"

Several analysts believe India had acted under the pressure of the United States, which has lauded the RBI's action. Last year, India had protested Iran's remarks on Kashmir, and earlier, India had voted against the country's nuclear programme in a resolution of the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Domestic oil companies faced the crisis after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) discontinued a settlement through the Asian Clearing Union (ACU) for crude oil payments to Iran. ACU, an initiative of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and Pacific (ESCAP), was established in 1974 at Tehran for promoting regional co-operation. It facilitates payments among member countries for eligible transactions on a multilateral basis. The model helps in economising the use of foreign exchange reserves and transfer costs.

Ironically it is the US' desire to maintain political hegemony that may just be the catalyst that forces other countires to realize that transacting in a currency which is less and less deserving of a reserve moniker, is greatly overvalued.

[elZorro]

Interesting point there Denpal. Buying oil with gold, sounds sensible. A good article from December 2010 (http://moneymorning.com/2010/12/02/gold-price-forecast-four-reasons-the-yellow-metal-will-hit-1900-an-ounce-in-2011/)which backs many of the goldbug arguments well. The level of hoarding and agreement on gold is not high enough for it to be in a bubble yet. It is still likely that some global or international crisis will render the Sornette argument for a peak, void. It's a very tidy maths solution, but is the real world like that?

[upside_umop]

Quote from The Australian
The RBA paper noted at the time that gold holdings in the US and Europe remained high, with the US holding 75 per cent of its reserve assets in gold.

"Central banks traditionally hold gold because of its ability to be used in the event of a crisis in the international financial system; it is the only reserve asset that is not a claim on some other government, international institution or bank. However, over the past two or three decades, the world has experienced a number of economic 'crises', but gold played no part in coping with them," the paper said.

The paper argued that continuing development of financial system meant that circumstances which would require Australia to call upon our gold holdings for economic reasons looked increasingly remote.

full article here
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/reserve-banks-gold-sale-cost-us-5bn/story-e6frg6nf-1225985231872

The RBA is correct. Why keep gold? For this reason:


A board paper recommending the decision to sell conceded that gold served as "insurance against a breakdown in the international financial system", but it then dismissed the need for holding this valuable asset.

Unless you think that is going to happen, i.e. the world will melt down, people will be looting shops left, right and centre, and we're going back to cowboys n indians...why bother? It's an asset class (I struggle to call it that), that over time goes virtually nowhere. You pay upto $1,000 an ounce to dig it out of the ground and put it in a vault. Warren Buffett hates it, George Soros loves it....for a bubble. What does that tell you?

One day I'm going to put on a long term short on gold, as I believe over the long term, it will be free borrowing (it doesn't increase in value over the long term). When it looks like we will be riding horses again, I'll cover the trade. lol

[Skol]

Yes, Skol, dreams for goldbugs perhaps nightmares for you? Gold = currency see below. The oil trade with Iran is worth 10Moz gold per annum at 400k bopd.

This article posted at zerohedge.com:

India Offers To Pay For Iran Oil With Gold
Tyler Durden's picture
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/10/2011 13:00 -0500

www.imdb.com/media/rm4266367232/ch0001854

Is this your Tyler Durden?

Looks like Brad Pitt. LOL

Hey EZ, even a guy from Hamilton wouldn't go along with that would they?

[Skol]

I see another bubble has just been pricked.

The Bangladesh benchmark index, up 80% in 2010, about the same as silver, has plunged, sparking riots among novice investors.

[stevo1]

I see another bubble has just been pricked.

The Bangladesh benchmark index, up 80% in 2010, about the same as silver, has plunged, sparking riots among novice investors.

Yep these things can leave people with mountains of worthless paper.Surprised you didnt warn us about it.

[Skol]

Yep these things can leave people with mountains of worthless paper

Yep, like the 1980 gold crash left lots of overly optimistic punters with virtually worthless gold.

You haven't answered my questions.

How high will gold go?
What gold do you have?
How has it done?

[stevo1]

Yep, like the 1980 gold crash left lots of overly optimistic punters with virtually worthless gold.

You haven't answered my questions.

How high will gold go?
What gold do you have?
How has it done?


I dont really want to enter into a pisssing contest skoly.
But i vill answers you questions.ja.
Gold will go as high (or as low)as the market drives it.
Some physical gold at $32/oz some at $400/oz.
Leave you to figure the time spans and profit margins(which is immaterial unless you sell it)

Most of my investements now are into Li, REEs,gold juniors with polymetalic deposits
and the odd gold major Nem (owned for 15yrs)
33% cash (bank deposits)
33% property

[Skol]

Some physical gold at $32/oz

Gold hasn't been $32 for decades, does that mean you're a 1980 'veteran'?

[denpal]

One of my favourite gold bugs, really. I love his sense of humour. Go to the original article here to click on the chart links. Skol I hope you don't choke!!!

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_s/thomson_s_011111.html


Gold & USD: Tactics To Get Richer

Stewart Thomson
email: stewart@gracelandupdates.com
email: stewart@gracelandjuniors.com
Jan 11, 2011

1. Gold blasted through $1380 early this morning! Your gold bullion pile, marked to paper currency model, just rose by approx. 1.5% in value from the $1360 area lows!

2. Good news, and, perhaps, congratulations to you.

3. Before you break out your champagne, however, could I “bother you” from your calculations, to ask just one teeny question: Marked to market weight, did your gold bullion pile increase in number of ounces from $1360? That would require a yes or no answer.

4. US dollars are currency. Not money. There’s a significant difference between currency and money, and understanding that difference is key to real wealth building.

5. Your wealth building.

6. Ounces of gold bullion weight is how money is measured. That’s not a tongue twister, nor a game. It’s a fact. Those of you who hold the same amount of gold now as you did as $250 an ounce are not any richer. Those around you got poorer. That doesn’t make you richer. If those around you have financial cancer does that mean you are getting younger? No. Likewise, you don’t get richer unless you increase the number of ounces you hold.

7. 2011, I have predicted, is the year of the Gold Punisher. I’m not interested in protecting myself against hyperinflation, nor against any paper money end game. I’m interested in getting richer.

8. He who has the most gold makes the most rules, not he who values his microscopic amount of gold dust at the highest paper dollar price. He who has the most gold is the richest. I view the current gold vs paper money valuation obsession as a sickness. Gold ounce weight vs paper currency pricing, as a wealth measurement battle, is like a human being armed with a supercomputer taking on a lobotomized chimp, in an intelligence battle. Yet, horrifically, here we are, in what feels like the downtown core of: Chimp City.

9. Paper currency answers to Gold. Not the other way round. If you are measuring your gold, ultimately, in paper money, you don’t really understand what Gold is. Step up to the ounces of wealth measurement of richness plate for 2011. Or step up to the bread line. Because that’s what is, really, at stake as the ultimate risk of failing to make the accounting move.

10. Don’t wish for something too hard, or you just might get it. Here’s your Paper Currency Versus Gold Bullion Money Chart. How does that look? Still think paper is the big buy? Ben Bernanke wants you hurry, go get that paper currency before you miss out, before it gets away!

11. You now have only 2 billion opinions on “playing the gold correction against paper money”. Back in the real world, the gold world, I’d like you to take notice of what happened the last time the paper currency technicians’ pet indicator, MACD, gave a screaming paper currency buy signal against Gold. A major screaming buy.

12. Here’s that “buy signal” highlighted. Massive Buy Signal For Paper against Gold Money.

13. Look at what happened to team MACD when they took on what Gold is: They, and their box full of teckie crayons, got 100% obliterated by GOLD. Their paper currency buy signal fantasy went straight down the drain against gold. Now it’s all going to be different with their newest paper currency superbuy, correct? Maybe it is. Meantime, click here now to view what appears to be Ben Bernanke in front of US Congress, singing the US Dollar Theme Song For 2011. Movie

14. Still think the dollar is a roaring buy? Click here now to view a 100 YEAR PAPER CURRENCY CHART. (courtesy Wood/Dunnigan). I think you should be using any rally in paper currency/widgets to book profit in paper against your base currency, which should be: ounces of gold. Gold doesn’t rise or fall against the dollar. The dollar rises and falls against gold, and therefore paper currency answers to Gold. The dollar is your tool to get more gold. If you are interested in getting richer.

15. The rising price of a fixed amount of gold in dollars is a measurement of how much poorer everyone else is getting, not an indication of how rich you are getting. You’ll build nothing, no wealth, by the end of this bull market, even at $100,000 an ounce, if you have no more ounces than when it started. True, everyone else might be on the bread line, but you still aren’t any richer. Get more gold. Instead of breaking the financial rules, start making them!

16. Gold stock, unfortunately, can be diluted. It trades against paper currency. Still, gold stock is leveraged to the gold price, so by definition it is a wealth building tool when gold is rising significantly against paper currency. The gold $1400-$1700 area is one that could see gold stocks suddenly recover all the “lag” they have displayed, generally, compared to bullion. It is not an area to risk missing, especially when your supposed reward is a microscopic rally in paper currency! If you think that will make you richer, go for it.

17. Unlike bullion, gold stock wealth cannot be measured absolutely in shares, because shares can be diluted while ounces can’t. That’s a real risk, but if you accept it, the possible upside reward for gold stock in 2011 is mind boggling.

18. Here’s the GDX Chart. Price is 12% on sale for you in terms of paper currency right now. Please take that gift to you, courtesy of Mr. Market. Now is a place to at least buy some gold stock. Eight more corrections like this would put GDX at zero, an unlikely event. The volume is the only technical indicating lower prices against paper currency could occur. Rather than guessing at how many consecutive 12% sales you might get in a pipedream, focus on really buying one. This one.

19. The above chart is GDX is in paper currency. Here’s the GDX in money: GDX to Gold Bullion Chart. A lot of investors are dumping gold stocks for bullion. Wrong move. This chart says to me that gold stocks are a screaming buy against bullion in the short term. In the long term, they look like a gold stocks spaceship sitting on a bullion launchpad. Are they at a bottom? If you are asking that question, you are making a wealth-building error. Don’t bottom call gold stocks, nor any asset. Buy them in a pyramid formation of risk capital allocation, to zero in paper currency terms if need be.

20. Here’s a short term look at gold on the Comex this morning. Remember my $1410-1360 Gold buy pyramid, the one I told you to end the buys down to around $1350? $1350 allowed you to catch the gold thrown away by the paper currency chasers as the $1360 technical support broke. Look at the price now: Kachingo Time For You Chart. I’m not sure how team “Gold Correction against Paper Currency” is feeling this morning, let’s hope they are all OK. I’m not on team “Correction”. Nor am I on team “Gold Answers To Paper Bugs”, and I’m most certainly not in the growing line-up standing in front of the photocopier machine clamouring to get Ben Bernanke’s autograph. The team I’m on is called, “More Ounces Equals More Richness”.

21. What team are you on? Today I’ve tried to show you the difference between protecting yourself (from the bread line?) and getting richer. If you absolutely had to choose one course of action, given what I’ve laid out here today, which sounds better to you: Maintenance of purchasing power, or getting richer? The reason the “banksters” buy gold in a pyramid formation as it drops against paper currency, then sell it into strength, is not to make more paper currency, but to get more ounces of gold, to get richer. Let’s hope they didn’t get yours.

22. I hope Gold goes below $1360 against paper currency, and then below $1315, so I can buy more ounces of gold richness, and more shares of gold stock. There’s a risk it actually doesn’t, but instead blasts higher, leaving the paper bugs squashed by Gold, for only the ten billionth time.

23. Almost the entire gold community is talking correction of gold against toilet paper currency, which makes me very suspicious of just how much more gold I’ll really be able to buy at lower prices. Again, gold $1400-$1700 is an all-critical pricing area for gold stock, so it is obviously all-critical that you don’t get overly excited about any paper currency rally against gold money, here and now.

24. I have a lot of paper currency I’d personally like to unload, but I’m becoming more and more sceptical about this paper currency rally, and I wonder just how much profit, if any, I’ll really be able to book. If I, and you, are able to book profit as paper rallies, remember that your prime base currency as a financial realist, must be…Ounces of physical gold!

Jan 11, 2011
Stewart Thomson
Graceland Updates
website: www.gracelandupdates.com
email for questions: stewart@gracelandupdates.com
email to request the free reports: freereports@gracelandupdates.com

[Skol]

Yeah I've seen heaps of those goldbug site motivations over the years.

If you check you'll find that with a couple of exceptions stockmarkets have done much better than gold over the last 6 months, and then, as above, as gold sinks you'll be able to top up your gold, all the way down.

Stewart Thompson - a 'guru' I hadn't heard of before.

You know what to do Den, sell the house and buy gold.

[upside_umop]

Yeah I've seen heaps of those goldbug site motivations over the years.

If you check you'll find that with a couple of exceptions stockmarkets have done much better than gold over the last 6 months, and then, as above, as gold sinks you'll be able to top up your gold, all the way down.

Stewart Thompson - a 'guru' I hadn't heard of before.

You know what to do Den, sell the house and buy gold.

Exactly. This lady in a gold stand told me she was 99% sure the price of silver would be higher tomorrow than it would be today. So you know what I told her..."Sell the house and buy silver." The funny think was, she looked like she was thinking it was a good idea!

[JBmurc]

Exactly. This lady in a gold stand told me she was 99% sure the price of silver would be higher tomorrow than it would be today. So you know what I told her..."Sell the house and buy silver." The funny think was, she looked like she was thinking it was a good idea!

Could think of worse investments like long dated US bonds

2011 looks likely to be yet another year that Silver demand outstrips mine production

[stevo1]

Gold hasn't been $32 for decades, does that mean you're a 1980 'veteran'?
Skol in a vain attempt to edjumicate u the foolowing article may be of interest to you .
I ask the question of you after you have given the article sufficient thought IS IT DIFFERENT THIS TIME?

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10699323

[upside_umop]

Seems Peter Thiel, who co-founded paypay, one of the first investors in facebook, predicted the house market crash, the rising bonds, the deflation, the oil price rise (not the subsequent fall though) etc etc also thinks.....you guessed it:



He would be “very worried” about investing in emerging markets and gold.


Read the full article here (http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aJx9h3uZJL5k&pos=7). A good read. He just has terrible timing. But he's got a great track record of predicting the macro trends.

[Skol]

Skol in a vain attempt to edjumicate u the foolowing article may be of interest to you .
I ask the question of you after you have given the article sufficient thought IS IT DIFFERENT THIS TIME?

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10699323

You don't need to educate me.

I read the following papers daily either online or the paper version.
FT, WSJ, NZ Herald, The Australian and The Times.

I also read Barrons, Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg and The Economist.

I also regularly watch CNBC, so I'm aware of that.

Sir John Templeton once wrote "The four most dangerous words in investing are "This time it's different."

[robo]

Watched a special report on the baby boomer retirement issue in the US ,sobering stuff some one retiring every 10 seconds in the US from now on, very soon 1 in every 3 tax dollars payed by workers will be needed to pay for the pension of above retirees, the whole near insolvent European country thing is nowhere near over.

Our position here is also very scary, There will be another property boom here beginning in the next couple of years,see my rational for this in the Real Estate good news stories thread.

Although some commentators and board members think that precious metals are a near redundant asset class, its what the Joe public world wide see as a good investment in uncertain times that counts, much the same as all the media types who were totally scathing of the dramatic rise in property prices through the mind 2 thousands for years on end.

If I had listened to them when they first started bleating on I would be hundreds of thousands worse off currently.:)

[Skol]

Goldbugs like to quote China as being a driving force behind gold, but it's a flash-in-the-pan IMO.

Tall buildings going up all over China even in remote regions.

Goldbugs should google the Skyscraper Index, they like to paint a bleak picture of the world going to hell, but it's not that bad, things are improving in the USA, employment numbers up, spending up and factories producing more.

[robo]

Goldbugs like to quote China as being a driving force behind gold, but it's a flash-in-the-pan IMO.

Tall buildings going up all over China even in remote regions.

Goldbugs should google the Skyscraper Index.

Chinas not the problem currently:)

[Skol]

I've got 19 shares on my watchlist and the only one that's down today is gold share OGC (which I don't own thank goodness), all others are up including McArthur Coal whose mines are under water.

Goldbugs are always scouring the papers for the latest crisis to justify their purchases, doesn't matter what crisis, as long as there is one somewhere.

[denpal]

I've got 19 shares on my watchlist and the only one that's down today is gold share OGC (which I don't own thank goodness), all others are up including McArthur Coal whose mines are under water.

My main goldie NMG is up 24% on the OA's so I'm not complaining either.

[robo]

I've got 19 shares on my watchlist and the only one that's down today is gold share OGC (which I don't own thank goodness), all others are up including McArthur Coal whose mines are under water.

Goldbugs are always scouring the papers for the latest crisis to justify their purchases, doesn't matter what crisis, as long as there is one somewhere.
Thats Great Skol, Im happy for you, Im buying another property 2morrow:D

[denpal]

Of course Skol can short these gold shares as some gold bugs will when the whole show is over, whenever that will be. Doesn't look like this year though.

[Skol]

'Guru', Jim Rogers seems to have swapped sides.


Commodities .Gold ‘Overdue’ for Drop After Rally, Rice Will Gain, Rogers Says
By Whitney McFerron - Jan 14, 2011 9:12 AM GMT+1300

Gold is “overdue for a rest” and probably will fall after a decade of uninterrupted gains that sent prices to a record, said Jim Rogers, the chairman of Rogers Holdings who predicted the start of the global commodities rally in 1999.

While gold “may go down for awhile,” the metal is “going to go over $2,000 in this decade,” Rogers, who owns gold, silver and rice, said today during a presentation to business executives in Chicago. Gold touched a record $1,432.50 an ounce in New York on Dec. 7. The price closed today at $1,387.

“I’d rather own rice,” Rogers said. “I’d rather own something that’s more depressed than gold.”

[elZorro]

'Guru', Jim Rogers seems to have swapped sides.


Commodities .Gold ‘Overdue’ for Drop After Rally, Rice Will Gain, Rogers Says
By Whitney McFerron - Jan 14, 2011 9:12 AM GMT+1300

Gold is “overdue for a rest” and probably will fall after a decade of uninterrupted gains that sent prices to a record, said Jim Rogers, the chairman of Rogers Holdings who predicted the start of the global commodities rally in 1999.

While gold “may go down for awhile,” the metal is “going to go over $2,000 in this decade,” Rogers, who owns gold, silver and rice, said today during a presentation to business executives in Chicago. Gold touched a record $1,432.50 an ounce in New York on Dec. 7. The price closed today at $1,387.

“I’d rather own rice,” Rogers said. “I’d rather own something that’s more depressed than gold.”

Well, everyone's entitled to their opinion: what do the Deutsche Bank (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-11/gold-must-exceed-2-000-to-be-considered-in-a-bubble-deutsche-bank-says.html)gurus think? If gold continues its climb this year, watch everyone jump back into mining shares.

[Skol]

OGC fallen below the 200 day average.

[elZorro]

OGC fallen below the 200 day average.

So you should buy some Skol, as OGC is actually tied to the gold price, which hasn't fallen as far. And then hang on while the gold price moves back up. You know it will..

[denpal]

OGC fallen below the 200 day average.

NMG and MSR heading northwards, both quality gold juniors.

[Skol]

So you should buy some Skol, as OGC is actually tied to the gold price, which hasn't fallen as far. And then hang on while the gold price moves back up. You know it will..

No I don't know it will EZ.

The 200 day MA generally means bad news. Big producer NCM down 50c today and on the edge as well. SBM well below.

I think the precious metals craze might be over.

[elZorro]

No I don't know it will EZ.

The 200 day MA generally means bad news. Big producer NCM down 50c today and on the edge as well. SBM well below.

I think the precious metals craze might be over.

Does this look like a head and shoulders pattern? (http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.html?s=NYBOT_dx&t=&a=&w=&v=d3)

(Three month US$) could be taking a dive again..that's not so good for your side of the argument Skol..

[lewinsky]

You've got to me Skol, just sold my OGC - a gold producer and bought ICP- a company that sells ATM's that spit out paper money.

LEW

[Skol]

Does this look like a head and shoulders pattern? (http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.html?s=NYBOT_dx&t=&a=&w=&v=d3)

(Three month US$) could be taking a dive again..that's not so good for your side of the argument Skol..

The USD down heaps in the last few days against the euro but gold and silver down.

I'm wondering if the entire resources sector's in for a breather it's had such a great run.

[elZorro]

You've got to me Skol, just sold my OGC - a gold producer and bought ICP- a company that sells ATM's that spit out paper money.

LEW

Are you joking Lew? Not sure.. If you look into companies making venders, most of them go broke. I'm not sure why, but it's a competitive market with high costs. Those using the venders can do well, if in a solid business. ICP looks to be in unfavoured waters.

Just for you Skol: how to buy more shares - buy more gold first.

[Skol]

No gold for me looks like the hedge funds are on the way out according to the news, and gold has underperformed the S&P 500 by 10% in the last 6 months.

[trackers]

No gold for me looks like the hedge funds are on the way out according to the news, and gold has underperformed the S&P 500 by 10% in the last 6 months.

S&P 500 must be in a bubble or something derp derp

[lewinsky]

OGC down under $4.00 this morning and ICP up to 44 cents.

I don't disagree with your comments El Zorro, and don't intend to be married to ICP.

I just figure that there is a short term opportunity here and am expecting a good half yearly announcement.

Based on their presentation late last year, they are trading on a forecast PE of under 6, which looks cheap compared to CUS.

LEW

[elZorro]

S&P 500 must be in a bubble or something derp derp

Yeah, good one Trackers.

[Hoop]

Gold is it a good investment?
In the last 10 years.. yes globally..It was a fantastic investment over that time

In the last year????
Yes and no depending on where you live.
If you lived in USA India Europe... yes
If you lived in Zimbabwe ...most definitely YESSSSS :t_up:... The gold chart would be like climbing up a steep cliff face.

If you lived in China Japan Australia and NZ and using your National currency.. No not really a good investment... better investments around including money (National currency) earning interest in the bank, especially in Australia (A$) as gold investors have seen 0% gain/loss from period July 2010 - Today

How can this be so....The media smokes and mirrors is to blame...we down under folk see Gold measured in US Dollars and with the media hype we assume Gold is going bangbusters..However not much good to us if we only invest using our own National currency instead of the US$. Using the US $ / time Gold chart at a time (2010) when the USA is manipulating its currency and forcing their US$ down can throw up illusions that Gold is doing very well globally when in fact it is not.

I will not show many charts..just the Aust$ chart compared with the US$ Chart as a quick example.

However if you want to play using different currencies around the world click here on the Infomine chart builder site (http://www.infomine.com/chartsanddata/chartbuilder.aspx?z=spot&dr=1d&g=127681) its very easy to use and you will be very surprised with some of the charts....unfortunately Zimbabwe dollars is not included on the drop down list :(.

Will Gold increase again Globally....Don't knows, maybe, maybe not...your guess is probably better than mine... as my crystal ball is broken.

ELZ You say you have a gold price/ OGC formula. I assume your $ pricing is in the same currency e.g A$ for OGC.ax if not then you are comparing apples with pears aren't you?

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/GoldinUS18012011.png
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/GoldinA18012011.png

[Skol]

You've got to me Skol, just sold my OGC - a gold producer and bought ICP- a company that sells ATM's that spit out paper money.

LEW

Looks like you made the right decision, OGC down 8% on the NZX this morning.

[elZorro]

Skol, OGC should be a screaming buy then..

Hoop, the EZ equation was: OGC price in CAD cents = 0.8x US$POG -660

Then OGC issued a whole lot of shares over a couple of months and sure enough the price dropped to reflect that. It's now discounted by about 35%, more on a bad day. But it normally returns to the equation prediction.They are always producing the same amount of gold each year, and the TSX is by far the biggest listing for OGC. So Aussie and NZ follow their lead, and they follow the US$gold price. Religiously most months. A plot of OGC against the US$gold price is informative, especially if the shares on issue are constant.

So while it might not make sense, that is how this share moves. If OGC had enough data on their website to show the no. of shares on issue, I reckon the graph would be very consistent with those two factors.

[whirly]

RSG is still looking after me alright and another upgrade this morning. http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110118/pdf/41w758vxtgbfwy.pdf

[Skol]

Buying OGC at the moment would be trying to catch the falling knife, gold looks weaker by the day and several gold shares have fallen below the 200 day MA.
The XGD is not far off it, even NCM is on the edge.

On the ASX OGC looks to have a support/resistance level around $3.40, now below that.

I'm surprised that JB hasn't seized on the matter of Hu Jintao's observation that the USD domination was a "product of the past". I won't be putting my retirement funds anywhere near a country that is a one-party communist state, has massive problems with ethnic minorities, corruption, violence, pollution, human rights and overpopulation.
The Chinese economy is running red hot according to the news so the Skyscraper Index applies here.

I think I'll leave a certain amount of my funds in USD.

[peat]

James Flanagan of Gann Global Financial is building up his bearish case on commodities particularly silver and platinum

http://www.gannglobal.com/webinar/2011/01/17-video-04.php

for the record I'll post his trades
3166

[Phaedrus]

Gold too. It would be difficult for anyone to misinterpret or minimise a statement like this :-

"If you are holding any gold stocks, I recommend you exit all positions immediately".

Interesting video.

[STRAT]

Gold too. It would be difficult for anyone to misinterpret or minimise a statement like this :-

"If you are holding any gold stocks, I recommend you exit all positions immediately".

Interesting video.No, no, no.

Ive become very attached to my parcel of GOR. I have high hopes for them this year.

I dont want to have to sell them:(:crying:

[elZorro]

No, no, no.

Ive become very attached to my parcel of GOR. I have high hopes for them this year.

I dont want to have to sell them:(:crying:

Don't worry Strat, the video is all about TA charts, and isn't too interested in the rarity and cost of extraction of gold, for example. A 60 year cycle about to end? yeah right.

[Stumpynuts]

No, no, no.

Ive become very attached to my parcel of GOR. I have high hopes for them this year.

I dont want to have to sell them:(:crying:



GOR have some more drilling results today.
Now all that's left is for them to put together an estimation of total ounces in Central Bore.
SP might go apesh*t at the end of March?

[whirly]

Yeah stop spreading the fear. On the day RSG announce a 174% reserve upgrade at Ravensdown they are down .5c Go figure?

DYOR

[Skol]

Don't worry Strat, the video is all about TA charts, and isn't too interested in the rarity

Rarity - don't kid yourself EZ, there's heaps of it and 2010 was a record gold production year, 2652 tonnes. A new all time high.

There's about 170,000 tonnes of it around the world.

[STRAT]

Don't worry Strat, the video is all about TA charts, and isn't too interested in the rarity and cost of extraction of gold, for example. A 60 year cycle about to end? yeah right.lol. Thats like telling a born again Christian not to worry the Video is all about God. :scared:

[Phaedrus]

Ive become very attached to my parcel of GOR. I dont want to have to sell them. I can only assume that you have forsaken the use of TA, Strat! Since firing off a raft of Sell signals a couple of months ago, GOR has progressively weakened. Even a crummy indicator like the MACD gave a good exit point.

It looks as though GOR is more or less tracking down with the price of Gold.
I'm not sure whether that is a good sign for you or not!

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/GOR118.gif

[STRAT]

Hi P.
Forsaken may be a bit strong. Id like to think Im looking at a bigger picture so Im going to stick my neck out at the risk of having my head lopped off.

Im going to put up the argument that it has retraced as one would expect after a strong rally. Its now in a bit of a trading range and just taking a breather before the next leg up :D :D :D

[elZorro]

Rarity - don't kid yourself EZ, there's heaps of it and 2010 was a record gold production year, 2652 tonnes. A new all time high.

There's about 170,000 tonnes of it around the world.

Just a few grams per person on the planet, mined so far by humans. Remember the extra gold is only being recovered at a smallish profit for the most part, from low grade known deposits.

Heck I'm getting good at TA, my head and shoulders prediction for US$ is coming true, with gold and the dollar heading in opposite directions tonight :eek2:

[Phaedrus]

My head and shoulders prediction for US$ is coming true, with gold and the dollar heading in opposite directions tonight'Fraid not EZ. This short-term chart clearly shows that Gold and the $US are in lockstep with both resolutely heading in the same direction - down.

I see no sign of any Head and shoulders pattern here!

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/Goldetc119.gif

[Skol]

The Nikkei 225, which I have been dollar cost averaging for about 10 years is finally showing signs of life and has beaten gold by 4% in the last 6 months.

[elZorro]

'Fraid not EZ. This short-term chart clearly shows that Gold and the $US are in lockstep with both resolutely heading in the same direction - down.

I see no sign of any Head and shoulders pattern here!

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/Goldetc119.gif

What is this, pick on elZorro day?

Phaedrus, I refer you back to the 3 month pattern for the US$.That is a longer-term head/shoulders pattern, or similar. Since the TSX market is the big factor in my gold play, the US$ price of gold is the chart I look at, and when I posted, they were heading in opposite directions, sharply. OK, so that only lasted for an hour or two before gold fizzled out, I have to make the most of these events..I'm usually wrong.

[mistymountain]

Looking at the gold price trend lines for long term over last year, two years I struggle to see a down trend...

[hal]

'Fraid not EZ. This short-term chart clearly shows that Gold and the $US are in lockstep with both resolutely heading in the same direction - down.

I see no sign of any Head and shoulders pattern here!

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/Goldetc119.gif

that is a very short term chart. Surely you can't base decisions on that alone. I have had holidays that are longer than that.

[Jaa]

that is a very short term chart. Surely you can't base decisions on that alone. I have had holidays that are longer than that.

I didn't think computers got holidays.

[elZorro]

Confirmation on where the increased gold production (http://shockedinvestor.blogspot.com/2011/01/forget-peak-gold-theories-global-gold.html)is coming from - previously uneconomic low-grade ore. There is probably enough for the next few years, but if the gold price dropped too much, official resources tables for many miners would drop like a stone.

[Skol]

Not looking too good, NCM, SBM and OGC all down. NCM below 200 day MA. XGD down nearly 2% today.

I read a couple of hours ago that goldbugs are expecting a move upwards in the next day or so because it's a full moon.

Desperation setting in, it'll be tea leaf readings next.

[ronthepom]

Not looking too good, NCM, SBM and OGC all down. NCM below 200 day MA. XGD down nearly 2% today.

I read a couple of hours ago that goldbugs are expecting a move upwards in the next day or so because it's a full moon.

Desperation setting in, it'll be tea leaf readings next.

Just love it Skol, keep em coming lol
Ron

[percy]

On the 2011 asx competition I posted the experts picks.Posters may be interested in their view of price of gold and oil.Both in US$ gold oz oil barrel.
alex moffatt 1287.3 88.57
peter quinton 13oo 100.
angus geddes 1590 115
craig james 1200 105
sam fimis 1565 96.4
geoff wilson 1112 102
simon turnbull 1450 99.5
brian weston 1300 90
peter wright 1250 92
elio d'amato 1300 110.

[Skol]

On the 2011 asx competition I posted the experts picks.Posters may be interested in their view of price of gold and oil.Both in US$ gold oz oil barrel.
alex moffatt 1287.3 88.57
peter quinton 13oo 100.
angus geddes 1590 115
craig james 1200 105
sam fimis 1565 96.4
geoff wilson 1112 102
simon turnbull 1450 99.5
brian weston 1300 90
peter wright 1250 92
elio d'amato 1300 110.
Who are these 'experts' never heard of them? A word of advice, whenever you hear the word 'expert' it's a contrarian warning.

[percy]

Who are these 'experts' never heard of them? A word of advice, whenever you hear the word 'expert' it's a contrarian warning.
i agree with your warning.each year the australian newspaper posts brokers picks for shares ,oil ,gold cash rate etc.You can see what companies they work for on my post 136 on 2011 yearly stock picking competition thread.

[peat]

James Flanagan of Gann Global Financial is building up his bearish case on commodities particularly silver and platinum

http://www.gannglobal.com/webinar/2011/01/17-video-04.php

for the record I'll post his trades
3166

the gold order has been triggered (and therefore silver)

[elZorro]

the gold order has been triggered (and therefore silver)

Peat, don't tell Skol gold has gone down overnight..I haven't worked out a skilful riposte yet :scared: Anyway the Hong Kong market might restore the price.

[Skol]

I've seen it, gold down 1.4% and silver down a whopping 4.2%.

PS. Bloomberg reported a couple of days ago that the number of futures contracts to buy gold had dropped by 16% in the last 2 weeks. They reckon this is an indication the 'big boys' are calling it quits.

[JBmurc]

Goldman sach earning hit in the last para -Goldman's trading business, typically its strongest, also fared poorly. Trading revenues from bonds, currencies and commodities fell 48 per cent.(thats what happens when you have large Silver shorts)



http://msn.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10700941&ref=rss

[stevo1]

I've seen it, gold down 1.4% and silver down a whopping 4.2%.

PS. Bloomberg reported a couple of days ago that the number of futures contracts to buy gold had dropped by 16% in the last 2 weeks.

Yes you are right Skol but still wrong since you started this thread gold was US$1096.6 is still up 30% and silver was at us$16.9 even after "WHOPPING" 4.2% drop still at US$27.6 a mere 65% up .Eventually prices will fall but still a very long way to go before you are right

[Skol]

Yes you are right Skol but still wrong since you started this thread gold was US$1096.6 is still up 30% and silver was at us$16.9 even after "WHOPPING" 4.2% drop still at US$27.6 a mere 65% up .Eventually prices will fall but still a very long way to go before you are right

True, but it looks like I've been right, not convincingly yet, that gold was in a bubble. If the decline continues, this means gold was in a bubble. It remains to be seen how fast it falls, whether it dies a natural death or plunges.

Yeah gold might be up 30% since then but are goldbugs digging up the garden and starting the car this morning and off to their bullion dealer to cash in their profits?
Or hanging in there awaiting financial Armageddon?

[mistymountain]

May be down against US$ but, for what its worth, currently POG is up against the Euro (slightly) and steady against the NZ $.

[Phaedrus]

That is a very short term chart. Surely you can't base decisions on that alone. I have had holidays that are longer than that.I posted a short-term chart to illustrate the strong link between Gold and the US$ Index. (ElZ was saying that, short term, they were moving in opposite directions.) Here is a longer term chart for people that have holidays of more than a week or two :-

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/GoldAus121.gif


Looking at the gold price trend lines for long term over the last two years I struggle to see a down trend... Good for you - because there isn't one.
I trust that you will also struggle to see an uptrend over this period - because there isn't one.

At A$1367, gold is exactly the same as it was 2 years ago!

[trackers]

At A$1367, gold is exactly the same as it was 2 years ago!


But...but.. gold is in a bubble?!!

[Phaedrus]

There is no conflict here, Trackers.
"Short-term" (2 months) Gold is in a Downtrend.
"Medium-term" (2 years) Gold is trendless.
"Long-term" (10 years) Gold is in an Uptrend.
"Very long term" Gold may indeed be in a bubble - time will tell.

[Skol]

Maybe the Chinese are dumping gold. The Year of the Rabbit will be here shortly and apparently it's a metal rabbit year.
This means metals will do well but one fung-shui master reckons this applies more to zinc, steel, copper etc. used in construction.

Agricultural commodities will produce stellar returns in a rabbit year.

[trackers]

There is no conflict here, Trackers.
"Short-term" (2 months) Gold is in a Downtrend.
"Medium-term" (2 years) Gold is trendless.
"Long-term" (10 years) Gold is in an Uptrend.
"Very long term" Gold may indeed be in a bubble - time will tell.

Surely were it in a bubble you'd expect that it would've moved somewhere in 2 years, or that is one crappy bubble...

Bubble of course being a completely subjective term

[Pumice]

Surely were it in a bubble you'd expect that it would've moved somewhere in 2 years, or that is one crappy bubble...

Bubble of course being a completely subjective term

Hi Phaedrus, do you have the gold chart Vs the NZD?
Wouldnt that be a better reflection given that just about everything has gone up Vs the USD.

[stevo1]

Hi Phaedrus, do you have the gold chart Vs the NZD?
Wouldnt that be a better reflection given that just about everything has gone up Vs the USD.

Better stil phaedrus do you have a chart for gold against the Reminibi ?after all the two biggest players in this game are the US and China

[Skol]

Surely were it in a bubble you'd expect that it would've moved somewhere in 2 years, or that is one crappy bubble...

Bubble of course being a completely subjective term

I think a lot of goldbugs have been expecting a vertical spike where they will make lots of money, followed by a crash, but all bubbles are different. The property bubble which imploded a couple of years ago did not have a vertical spike, it was a slow crash, given, I suppose that property is not that liquid.
Gold might pick up again but I doubt it.

Goldbugs being eternal optimists and notorious conspiracy theorists will view this as a buying opportunity but I don't see any news that would turn the POG around.

They're even dissecting the latest US$100 note looking for hidden messages. LOL

[trackers]

I think a lot of goldbugs have been expecting a vertical spike where they will make lots of money, followed by a crash, but all bubbles are different. The property bubble which imploded a couple of years ago did not have a vertical spike, it was a slow crash, given, I suppose that property is not that liquid.
Gold might pick up again but I doubt it.

Goldbugs being eternal optimists and notorious conspiracy theorists will view this as a buying opportunity but I don't see any news that would turn the POG around.

They're even dissecting the latest US$100 note looking for hidden messages. LOL

Yeah can't deny that last bit, there's some pretty bizarre arguments / conspiracy theories to come out of that crowd

[Lego_Man]

Maybe the Chinese are dumping gold. The Year of the Rabbit will be here shortly and apparently it's a metal rabbit year.
This means metals will do well but one fung-shui master reckons this applies more to zinc, steel, copper etc. used in construction.

Agricultural commodities will produce stellar returns in a rabbit year.

You're taking the piss right?

[Skol]

You're taking the piss right?

Nope, that's what the feng-shui guys reckon and hundreds of millions of chinese consult them.

The XGD has fallen below 7600 which seems to be a support/resistance level so I expect it to fall further, but not being a TA guy I stand to be corrected.

[Phaedrus]

Surely were it in a bubble you'd expect that it would've moved somewhere in 2 years, or that is one crappy bubble... Not at all. Bubbles can last for years. Here is a long-term (35 year) Gold chart on which I have marked a classical example of a bubble. You will note the similarities to the current situation, but of course a bubble cannot confirmed as a bubble until it bursts.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/GoldUS1975.gif

You might find this article of interest :- http://cautiousbull.wordpress.com/2010/10/12/is-gold-a-bubble/


Bubble of course being a completely subjective termNot at all. Precise definitions are readily available. Here is a simple one from Investorglossary.com :-
In markets, a bubble is an extended period of extreme overvaluation. Bubbles occur in stock markets, real estate, commodities and precious metals. Bubbles are formed when excessive speculation enters a market. Instead of viewing the intrinsic value of an asset, speculators in a bubble market instead focus on the resale value of the asset. This is sometimes referred to as the greater fool theory of investing. In a bubble, it doesn't seem to matter that a price is irrationally high - it only matters that it can be sold for an even more irrational price at a later date. Bubbles often end with steep declines, where most of the speculative gains are quickly wiped out.


Hi Phaedrus, do you have the gold chart Vs the NZD?
Wouldnt that be a better reflection given that just about everything has gone up Vs the USD.That's the important point right there, Pumice - and Gold is no exception.


Better still Phaedrus do you have a chart for gold against the Reminibi? After all the two biggest players in this game are the US and ChinaBut Stevo, this is the ASX forum. We cannot accurately compare the performance of Gold with other investments unless we use a common currency.
I invest in US stockmarkets. I would think I was doing very, very well if I did not correct my gains to take account of the weakening US dollar. I daresay I could scratch around and find some currency in which I was making fabulous "gains" but it seems a bit silly to delude oneself like that.

[Lego_Man]

Returns from every USD denominated asset class in the last 2 years have been mediocre, if you measure your performance in NZD (which i'm sure the vast majority of us do). Likewise the Kiwi weakness against the AUD has provided a nice "bonus" to portfolio performance for most i suspect.

[stevo1]

But Stevo, this is the ASX forum. We cannot accurately compare the performance of Gold with other investments unless we use a common currency.
I invest in US stockmarkets. I would think I was doing very, very well if I did not correct my gains to take account of the weakening US dollar. I daresay I could scratch around and find some currency in which I was making fabulous "gains" but it seems a bit silly to delude oneself like that.[/QUOTE]

Yes P this is an AXS forum BUT the price of gold IS measured in $US which is the reserve currency that commodities are settled in(for how much longer who knows)
The $US(debt) is funded largely by the Chinese purchase of treasuries,bonds etc so consumers in the US can buy more "stuff"(that really they cant afford and will throw in the trash shortly) from Chinese manufacturers which in turn keeps the Chinese economy BUBBLING and has transferred the American jobs to China.
The $AU is a commodity based currency(real tangible assets.metals etc) though no commodity that I am aware of on the international market is quoted or settled in $AU exclusively.
So I think that it would be more relevent to have a gold/reminibi chart for a true indication of golds incline
/decline.
This would surely give a good indication of the borrowers relative position to the lenders in gold terms.

[Skol]

Very interesting, when the market opened the XGD was down 10, now down 130. XGD will soon be within spitting distance of the 200 day MA at this rate. For TA buffs this will be a fascinating event.

NCM dropping by the hour.

[JBmurc]

Very interesting, when the market opened the XGD was down 10, now down 130. XGD will soon be within spitting distance of the 200 day MA at this rate. For TA buffs this will be a fascinating event.

NCM dropping by the hour.

Yes a good correction would do me fine have sold down some of my NAV for a tidy profit

[Skol]

Yes a good correction would do me fine have sold down some of my NAV for a tidy profit

What's happening in the silver vault?

[airedale]

Very interesting, when the market opened the XGD was down 10, now down 130. XGD will soon be within spitting distance of the 200 day MA at this rate. For TA buffs this will be a fascinating event.

NCM dropping by the hour.
Hi Skol, the end is not yet nigh. POG has increased every year for the last ten years. In seven out of those ten years the POG fell in January from its December peak. Have a little punt this year, buy some gold, or a gold miner like GOR,;) in the first quarter and sell in December.

[JBmurc]

What's happening in the silver vault?

not much if AMU get taking over for a good price I might buy another 250oz to my Kiwisaver Silver retirment plan to 2000oz av. cost likely 27-28oz

[Skol]

Hi Skol, the end is not yet nigh. POG has increased every year for the last ten years. In seven out of those ten years the POG fell in January from its December peak. Have a little punt this year, buy some gold, or a gold miner like GOR,;) in the first quarter and sell in December.

Won't be buying any gold or silver, GOR down 6% today, and while it's not over yet, it's looking ominous, could be good for stocks, all that money out of gold and silver and into more conventional investments.
Depends on what happens tonite, XGD still falling and down by 162, 2.2%.

We may (or may not) be on the cusp of witnessing an historical event.

[Hoop]

Hi Phaedrus, do you have the gold chart Vs the NZD?
Wouldnt that be a better reflection given that just about everything has gone up Vs the USD.

Pumice if you had read my post 3 days ago on Page 127 Post #1892. You would not have needed to ask this question. As your question still has not answered perhaps now is the time to chart the Gold/NZ$ yourself.

Part of my Post #1892 below shows the URL link...but you can click on it here if you like Infomine chart builder site (http://www.infomine.com/chartsanddata/chartbuilder.aspx?z=spot&dr=1d&g=127681)...and a window pops up showing a day chart.
1....scroll down this window and you will see 10 charts each with a different time period ranging from 1 day to 21 years...click on the chart time frame you want
2....the next window pops up similar to the previous one but this time it is your selected time frame chart.
3.... click the down arrow where it says U.S.Dollar (USD) A drop down box of many currencies appear
4...click on New Zealand Dollar (NZD)
5...click on display

up pops a NZD/gold chart...easy peasy:cool:


Gold is it a good investment?
In the last 10 years.. yes globally..It was a fantastic investment over that time

In the last year????........

...........However if you want to play using different currencies around the world click here on the Infomine chart builder site (http://www.infomine.com/chartsanddata/chartbuilder.aspx?z=spot&dr=1d&g=127681) its very easy to use and you will be very surprised with some of the charts....unfortunately Zimbabwe dollars is not included on the drop down list :(.

[Skol]

The XGD is at 7400, a resistance level, if it goes below this level the next resistance is at 6600, a drop of 11%.

[Financially dependant]

Pumice if you had read my post 3 days ago on Page 127 Post #1892. You would not have needed to ask this question. As your question still has not answered perhaps now is the time to chart the Gold/NZ$ yourself.

Part of my Post #1892 below shows the URL link...but you can click on it here if you like Infomine chart builder site (http://www.infomine.com/chartsanddata/chartbuilder.aspx?z=spot&dr=1d&g=127681)...and a window pops up showing a day chart.
1....scroll down this window and you will see 10 charts each with a different time period ranging from 1 day to 21 years...click on the chart time frame you want
2....the next window pops up similar to the previous one but this time it is your selected time frame chart.
3.... click the down arrow where it says U.S.Dollar (USD) A drop down box of many currencies appear
4...click on New Zealand Dollar (NZD)
5...click on display

up pops a NZD/gold chart...easy peasy:cool:

Thanks Hoop, that is an easy web site...

[denpal]

The XGD is at 7400, a resistance level, if it goes below this level the next resistance is at 6600, a drop of 11%.

No, There is major support line at 6900 from the 2008 triple top. I'd be surprised if we got that low, however of gold did retreat to 1260-1300 over the next few weeks or so we will get there.

[elZorro]

The XGD is at 7400, a resistance level, if it goes below this level the next resistance is at 6600, a drop of 11%.

No worries, gold to continue after this correction? (http://www.goldalert.com/2011/01/gold-price-correction-nearing-an-end/) because interest rates are in true negative territory in USA. Would need to reach nominal 2.5%, currently at 0.55%, to affect gold's sentiment. Hadn't heard this one before, what do you think Skol?

[Pumice]

No worries, gold to continue after this correction? (http://www.goldalert.com/2011/01/gold-price-correction-nearing-an-end/) because interest rates are in true negative territory in USA. Would need to reach nominal 2.5%, currently at 0.55%, to affect gold's sentiment. Hadn't heard this one before, what do you think Skol?

While I am not a gold bug, this is a good point. Especially if the fed hold thier rates below the rate of inflation. Its entirely possible they do this to inflate thier way out of debt, as they did post WW2 and in the 70's., although they didnt do it deliberately (so its been done before)
But the fact that China and Japan arent acting to hedge that possibility by dumping dollars and us assets, I dont believe the fed will do this and I think they will fight inflation even at the cost of growth some time in the future.

[stevo1]

Not owning gold is a form of insanity. It may even show unhealthy masochistic tendencies which might need medical attention."

So there you have it. If you don't own gold you're crazy. And from a technical analyst!


http://www.zerohedge.com/article/cazenoves-griffiths-not-owning-gold-form-insanity-and-may-even-show-unhealthy-masochistic-te

[Skol]

IMHO it's all over for gold, 10 years up, it's profit taking time and it won't be soaring to ever greater heights, $5K/$10K/$50K, it's one way - down.
I agree with this guy.

www.cnbc.com/id/41198968

It never ceases to amaze me the number of reasons goldbugs can come up with to talk up gold, and we're gonna see a lot of that. It's actually incredible, some of it has to be the most puerile nonsense ever written.

Inflation, China, India, the full moon, suppression, the wedding season, JP Morgan, Euro disintegration, banks crashing, the Fed, the PIIGs, Bernanke's lying, resistance/support levels, Fort Knox empty, the manipulators, a $USD crash, North Korea, etc, etc, etc,etc, etc, etc. to name just a few.

One of the better ones just recently, there's a hidden message in the new $100 US note, implying a gold standard. Hilarious isn't it?

Here's the real story, punters are selling and the price is falling.

[Skol]

No, There is major support line at 6900 from the 2008 triple top. I'd be surprised if we got that low, however of gold did retreat to 1260-1300 over the next few weeks or so we will get there.

Even if you are right, which I doubt, the XGD will breach the 200 day MA at 7200.

[stevo1]

IMHO it's all over for gold, 10 years up, it's profit taking time and it won't be soaring to ever greater heights, $5K/$10K/$50K, it's one way - down.
I agree with this guy.

www.cnbc.com/id/41198968

It never ceases to amaze me the number of reasons goldbugs can come up with to talk up gold, and we're gonna see a lot of that. It's actually incredible, some of it has to be the most puerile nonsense ever written.

Inflation, China, India, the full moon, suppression, the wedding season, JP Morgan, Euro disintegration, banks crashing, the Fed, the PIIGs, Bernanke's lying, resistance/support levels, Fort Knox empty, the manipulators, a $USD crash, etc, etc, etc,etc, etc, etc. to name just a few.

One of the better one's just recently, there's a hidden message in the new $100 US note, implying a gold standard. Hilarious isn't it?

Here's the real story, punters are selling and the price is falling.

This is your Anti gold mans predictions for 2010 made on 31/12/2009 http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2009/12/doug_kasss_20_s.html
No 4
The price of gold topples. Gold's price plummets to $900 an ounce by the beginning of second quarter 2010. Unhedged, publicly held gold companies report large losses, and the gold sector lies at the bottom of all major sector performers. Hedge fund manager John Paulson abandons his plan to bring a new dedicated gold hedge fund to market.

This is Robbin Griffiths profile;
Robin has been a regular on CNN, CNBC, Reuters and Bloomberg TV. He is a committee member and former chairman of the international Federation of Technical Analysts, and former chairman, now fellow, of the British Society of Technical Analysts.
I dont think he is a goldbug skol watch it again and LISTEN to what Griffiths is saying

[JBmurc]

Not owning gold is a form of insanity. It may even show unhealthy masochistic tendencies which might need medical attention."

So there you have it. If you don't own gold you're crazy. And from a technical analyst!


http://www.zerohedge.com/article/cazenoves-griffiths-not-owning-gold-form-insanity-and-may-even-show-unhealthy-masochistic-te

yeah a good clip --The downward trend in the dollar is awesomely powerful. It's vital to get yourself out of the dollar long-term on any significant rally. Continuing to own a currency that is going to be printed virtually into oblivion … is crazy," he said...(too right)

[Skol]

yeah a good clip --The downward trend in the dollar is awesomely powerful. It's vital to get yourself out of the dollar long-term on any significant rally. Continuing to own a currency that is going to be printed virtually into oblivion … is crazy," he said...(too right)

QE does not add to USD in circulation, a common fallacy amongst goldbugs. The word 'printing' is incorrect.
You've been watching too many of those ads on CNBC where the central banks spew money out everywhere.

Goldbugs like to use the word 'printing' because it sounds good, and they think it might bolster their case.

[JBmurc]

QE does not add to USD in circulation, a common fallacy amongst goldbugs. The word 'printing' is incorrect.
You've been watching too many of those ads on CNBC where the central banks spew money out everywhere.

Quantitative easing (QE) is an unconventional monetary policy used by some central banks to stimulate their economy. The central bank creates money which it uses to buy government bonds and other financial assets, in order to increase the money supply and the excess reserves of the banking system; this also raises the prices of the financial assets bought (which lowers their yield).[1]

Expansionary monetary policy normally involves a lowering of the interest rates by the central bank. However, when the interest rates are either at, or close to, zero, normal monetary policy can no longer function, and quantitative easing may be used by the monetary authorities in order to further stimulate the economy.[2][3] Risks include the policy being more effective than intended or of not being effective enough, if banks opt simply to sit on the additional cash in order to increase their capital reserves in a climate of increasing defaults in their present loan portfolio

[Skol]

Quantitative easing (QE) is an unconventional monetary policy used by some central banks to stimulate their economy. The central bank creates money which it uses to buy government bonds and other financial assets, in order to increase the money supply and the excess reserves of the banking system; this also raises the prices of the financial assets bought (which lowers their yield).[1]

Expansionary monetary policy normally involves a lowering of the interest rates by the central bank. However, when the interest rates are either at, or close to, zero, normal monetary policy can no longer function, and quantitative easing may be used by the monetary authorities in order to further stimulate the economy.[2][3] Risks include the policy being more effective than intended or of not being effective enough, if banks opt simply to sit on the additional cash in order to increase their capital reserves in a climate of increasing defaults in their present loan portfolio

There is no word 'printing' in your post. Bernanke said "QE does not add to money in circulation". Quote.

[elZorro]

There is no word 'printing' in your post. Bernanke said "QE does not add to money in circulation". Quote.

Skol, I just checked Wikipedia also (JB beat me to it), you might like to edit their take on QE: (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_easing)

The first two sentences are:



Quantitative easing (QE) is an unconventional monetary policy (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monetary_policy) used by some central banks (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_banks) to stimulate their economy. The central bank creates money which it uses to buy government bonds and other financial assets, in order to increase the money supply (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supply) and the excess reserves of the banking system; this also raises the prices of the financial assets bought (which lowers their yield (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yield_(finance))).[1] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_easing#cite_note-guardiannews-0)



Also


As of 4 November 2009 the Federal Reserve reported that the U.S. dollar monetary base (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monetary_base) is $1,999,897,000,000. This is an increase of 142% in 2 years.[25] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supply#cite_note-24) The monetary base is only one component of money supply, however. M2, the broadest measure of money supply, has increased from approximately $7.41 trillion to $8.36 trillion from November 2007 to October 2009, the latest month-data available. This is a 2-year increase in U.S. M2 of approximately 12.9%.[26] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supply#cite_note-25)

[Skol]

It may well increase the money supply amongst other things and unlike the goldbugs I don't profess to be an economist but I can tell you for sure, the word 'printing' is a figment of the goldbugs colossal imaginations.
QE does not increase the amount of cash in circulation. That came straight from Ben Bernanke himself, an educated and eloquent man, unlike the goldbugs whose profound knowledge comes straight from their 'gurus' and suspect websites.

[corran]

It may well increase the money supply amongst other things and unlike the goldbugs I don't profess to be an economist but I can tell you for sure, the word 'printing' is a figment of the goldbugs colossal imaginations.
QE does not increase the amount of cash in circulation. That came straight from Ben Bernanke himself, an educated and eloquent man, unlike the goldbugs whose profound knowledge comes straight from their 'gurus' and suspect websites.

Skol, if you want an accurate and unbiased explanation of QE and it's effects I reckon you need to look a bit deeper than Ben Bernanke who has a 'slight' vested interest to promote QE as sound economically.

QE as I understand it is not directly printing money but it is creating new money for use in the economy. I'm no economist either but IMO QE carries with it a very high risk of a number of unintended (and undesirable) consequences. For example, the money created by QE rather than stimulating the US economy may make it's way into emerging markets or commodities such as oil, sugar, cotton. This will then further depress the US economy as cash-strapped citizens have to fork out even more money on their day to day expenses. I think we're seeing that now. QE will devalue the currency possibly resulting in (higher than desired) inflation.

I don't consider myself a gold bug but I'm not averse to holding gold or gold shares if I think I will profit from them. I've done very nicely out of OGC for example which I invested a large chunk of my portfolio into in early 2009 at an average cost of 61c.

There are IMO a lot of uncertainties and risks in the global economy at the moment. I don't see these being resolved any time soon. You don't have to be a gold bug to think gold will be higher at the end of the year then it is now.

[Skol]

I don't agree that gold will be higher at the end of the year, but that's speculation anyway.
QE no doubt does carry some risk and Bernanke's head will roll if it fails, but I think you will all agree that it seems to be working.

I'm not averse myself to a bit of speculation in gold shares from time to time if I think there's money in it, but the thing that really bothers me about the goldbugs is that they regard anyone who disagrees with them as a lesser being, as an idiot or moron, they heap abuse on central bankers and those who dare publish newspaper columns warning of the dangers of excessive speculation and optimism in gold. They quote their 'gurus' as evidence that gold will definitely be going higher, meanwhile they don't ask themselves why these 'gurus' are selling gold bullion if it's definitely about to be propelled skyward.

Some of the stuff I've read on the internet from goldbugs is so removed from the real world it's hard not regard a proportion of them as sub-normal.

If gold continues in its present direction, which I expect, we are all going to be reading about a lot of very unfortunate people (coloquially referred to as mums and dads) who are going to be cleaned out.

If the hedge funds and mutual funds start bailing out after angry phone calls from their clients, this little rock slide is liable to turn into an avalanche, however one thing's for sure, if the goldbugs do their dough, it won't be their fault, it'll be someone elses fault and gold will be horribly mispriced.

I suspect that after a 10 year run, gold might be reverting to the mean.

[skid]

And what if your scenario turns out to be the U.S. economy,and monetary system, instead of gold?

[elZorro]

Even if you are right, which I doubt, the XGD will breach the 200 day MA at 7200.

In that case Skol, you'd better also watch out for the $USD, breaching its 200 day MA also, especially on Friday...;)

[Skol]

And what if your scenario turns out to be the U.S. economy,and monetary system, instead of gold?

I've been hearing the same old song for years, time to give it up.

[Skol]

In that case Skol, you'd better also watch out for the $USD, breaching its 200 day MA also, especially on Friday...;)

Doesn't matter what happens to the USD, gold's headed south, has done for weeks now.

The goldbugs will be poring over their charts looking at the next support line which will propel gold to $1620, but investor psychology has changed. Take a look at NCM and OGC for example, they're in freefall.

www.smh.com.au/business/markets/gold-eases-as-risk-appetite-grows-20110122-1a0ca.html

Notice the part that says "large funds might have exited the market", leaving you know who.

Want a laugh? Posted by what I would call a sub-intelligent goldbug. They're coming to get your gold.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=0TkFnL0HtL4&feature=related

[elZorro]

Fair enough Skol, looks like the fear sentiment is dropping back a bit, and some are trying out equities again. Although there is an RSI flag on one US index that implies there's only one direction left, down.
I agree the youtube post is a bit fanciful.

Kitco has a chart comparing the US$ price of gold, with some other currencies' basket price of gold. It shows that the weaker US$ is masking the lower gold price a bit, and in other currencies it's fallen more. So I might keep an eye on this chart.

[elZorro]

Skol - I liked the format of that video, turns out it's easy to do your own comic skits. I had a play with it for some fun. In progress.

[Skol]

Skol - I liked the format of that video, turns out it's easy to do your own comic skits. I had a play with it for some fun. In progress.

Yeah, I've seen a couple of those, one about unions. Not that I oppose unions by the way. There's probably some way of putting anything in that format and posting it on youtube.

[elZorro]

Yeah, I've seen a couple of those, one about unions. Not that I oppose unions by the way. There's probably some way of putting anything in that format and posting it on youtube.

OK, here is the short video, and I don't want anyone to take offence. Two characters on the sharetrader site, Skol and JB have a chat. (http://www.xtranormal.com/watch/8285034)

We could do heaps of these on sharetrader...all in good taste I hope.

[Skol]

OK, here is the short video, and I don't want anyone to take offence. Two characters on the sharetrader site, Skol and JB have a chat. (http://www.xtranormal.com/watch/8285034)

We could do heaps of these on sharetrader...all in good taste I hope.

Well done EZ, I acknowledge and applaud your computer skills. And wit.

[elZorro]

Well done EZ, I acknowledge and applaud your computer skills. And wit.

I just hoped you had a laugh about it - and no skill involved, it's a very easy site to use.

[STRAT]

OK, here is the short video, and I don't want anyone to take offence. Two characters on the sharetrader site, Skol and JB have a chat. (http://www.xtranormal.com/watch/8285034)

We could do heaps of these on sharetrader...all in good taste I hope.How come Skol is wearing my hat :mad ;:

I look forward to the next installment of Shortlong St elZ

[Skol]

There's gonna be a new worldwide gold standard according to some goldbugs. The world GDP will be divided by the amount of gold in existence and this will set the POG.
The rest of us uneducated plebeians will be poor and the goldbugs will be rich apparently.

Dreams are free I suppose.

I debated the POO for a year or so with tricha and bermuda but it crashed and I lost interest.
If the POG crashes and the goldbugs go away I'll have to find another bubble, but there'll be one somewher

[elZorro]

How come Skol is wearing my hat :mad ;:

I look forward to the next installment of Shortlong St elZ

OK Strat, I might find a better background and choose other characters next time, that Bush guy should be you with some rockin blues in the background..and now I just need something edgy to tag you with..I like the name you invented there, hope you haven't trademarked it :)

[elZorro]

Hi Strat, I spent a bit more time on this one for you, more motion and sound effects but it's still rough. As per usual, this is tongue in cheek, no offence intended, hope you enjoy having a look. Cheers.

ShortLong St Episode Two: "Strat on Gold" (http://www.xtranormal.com/watch/8286899)

[airedale]

Nice one ,guys, all good fun. It is all right making money, but a little humour brings us back to earth.

[OutToLunch]

Hi Strat, I spent a bit more time on this one for you, more motion and sound effects but it's still rough. As per usual, this is tongue in cheek, no offence intended, hope you enjoy having a look. Cheers.

Strat on Gold (http://www.xtranormal.com/watch/8286899)

I laughed out loud when I saw this. Brilliant! :t_up:

[Huang Chung]

Maybe we should do this across all of sharetrader.....everyone's a talking character, no more reading posts.

Oh, the possibilities......

[elZorro]

Maybe we should do this across all of sharetrader.....everyone's a talking character, no more reading posts.

Oh, the possibilities......

ElZorro replies..
(http://www.xtranormal.com/watch/8287899)

[Skol]

Have the goldbugs here reverted to humour to anaesthatize the pain? If I owned lots of gold I'd be doing some serious drinking hoping it would all go away.

Gold diving to new lows, $1333 at the moment.

Looking at a 10min. chart I'm wondering if the final death plunge is underway.

[corran]

Looking at a 10min. chart I'm wondering if the final death plunge is underway.

Final death plunge is a bit dramatic isn't it Skol?.... sounds a bit like inverse extreme gold bug speak to me! ;-)

from the chart I'm reading it's only down 0.5% for the day so far.

[Skol]

1.3% since last night. A little journalistic licence is allowed.

[elZorro]

1.3% since last night. A little journalistic licence is allowed.

I always think that if it goes down sharply, it could always do the opposite as well. It wasn't that long ago that $1300 was a big ask for gold. I could have had a lot more fun in robot speak, but the internet at work is a bit slow..

Just wait until gold turns back up, that'll be exciting.

[Skol]

Just wait until gold turns back up, that'll be exciting.

That'll probably be for your children EZ, the next generation.

[hal]

That'll probably be for your children EZ, the next generation.

Skol
Have you any idea how the XGD and NCM are going today. I have been waiting for your daily report

[Skol]

NCM up actually, $37.65 up .62c, they had a resource update, so must have been good news. XGD up 67, up 1%, probably because it's heavily weighted with NCM.

POG down, $1331.

OGC on the ASX down again, luckily I didn't take EZ's advice.

[elZorro]

NCM up actually, $37.65 up .62c, they had a resource update, so must have been good news. XGD up 67, up 1%, probably because it's heavily weighted with NCM.

POG down, $1331.

OGC on the ASX down again, luckily I didn't take EZ's advice.

My advice now is to hold OGC if you prefer, but wait for the bottom to buy again, might be soon, new resource tables update.
OGC is still making a good profit at US$1330 an ounce, well above their projected return.

[hal]

NCM up actually, $37.65 up .62c, they had a resource update, so must have been good news. XGD up 67, up 1%, probably because it's heavily weighted with NCM.

POG down, $1331.

OGC on the ASX down again, luckily I didn't take EZ's advice.

That must be a good sign if XGD is up then.

Thanks

[Skol]

It's all gone pretty quiet here, luckily the only gold I own is that in my wife's 2 Omega watches.

There's a report of someone selling silver bars on the side of the road down Queenstown way.

[evilroyrule]

skol, i must say your recently injected humour (as opposed to rigid zealot like sermons) serve you well. i am actually reading your posts and despite fact all my little goldies are going ****house enjoying them. crack crack

[Skol]

skol, i must say your recently injected humour (as opposed to rigid zealot like sermons) serve you well. i am actually reading your posts and despite fact all my little goldies are going ****house enjoying them. crack crack

OK, I've got the message, I'll lighten up a bit. Gold going further south though, lower highs and lower lows, $1329.

[Skol]

From the FT. Gold needs to fall by 70% to reach its long-term inflation-adjusted average.


.Valuation riddle for the yellow metal
By Edward Chancellor

Published: January 9 2011 09:44 | Last updated: January 9 2011 09:44

Gold is a glittering courtesan of the investment world, making different and even contradictory promises at every turn. At times, it behaves like any other speculative investment. On other occasions, gold offers protection against financial Armageddon. It is widely believed that gold will protect investors against both deflation and inflation. Today, gold is beloved by hedge fund titans and hordes of retail investors, by bulls and bears alike. There’s a catch: none of gold’s many admirers know how to value it.

If a bubble could be identified by popularity, then gold is in a bubble. Harrods, the Knightsbridge department store, now sells bullion over the counter. There are even gold vending machines.


The price of gold is buoyed by demand from emerging markets. The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China’s recently launched “Gold Accumulation Plan” has attracted more than a million accounts. “After opening an account,” reports the World Gold Council, Asia’s modern Croesuses “can start to accumulate gold on a daily basis . . . ”

A decade ago, when gold languished below $300 an ounce, it was ignored by the brokers. After a fourfold rise, Wall Street is extrapolating recent price appreciation into the distant future. Goldman has a target $1,690 an ounce for 2011, some 20 per cent above the current price. HSBC forecasts gold will rise by 8 per cent annually for the rest of the decade and recommends a 15 per cent investment allocation to the precious metal. With the euro in trouble and the dollar threatened by Ben Bernanke’s well-oiled printing press, gold has become the hottest “currency”.

Bubbles, however, are defined by valuation rather than investors’ behaviour. Over long periods, the valuation of gold in inflation-adjusted dollars has been stable. Since 1900 gold has averaged $440 in 2010 dollars. By this measure, gold at about $1,400 an ounce is 2.5 standard deviations above its long-run average. Gold is also expensive relative to its cost of extraction, which Credit Suisse estimates at roughly $600 an ounce.

Gold looks overvalued by more traditional yardsticks. In Babylonian times, it was said that an ounce of gold bought some 350 loaves of bread. The wholewheat loaf in my bread bin cost $2.45, which suggests a fair price for gold of about $850.

Another rule-of-thumb says an ounce of gold should purchase a gentleman’s suit. It is not clear what quality of tailoring is suggested. However, Gieves & Hawkes of Savile Row currently offers a navy single-breasted herringbone suit for £795 ($1,224).

Gold looks less pricey compared with other commodities. Since 1900, an ounce of gold has on average purchased 50 times its weight in silver. After last year’s run-up of silver, this ratio has fallen to 47 times. The price of gold in terms of oil has also been pretty constant. Since 1900, an ounce of gold has purchased on average 13.4 barrels of oil. Today, the same ounce buys 15.5 barrels.

There is no scientific method for valuing gold. As Jim Grant observes in his latest newsletter: “You can’t value a non-earning asset, even if you can pretend to.” Mr Grant suggests valuing gold by “1/n, where ‘n’ is the world’s confidence in paper currencies and the mandarins who manipulate them. Regrettably, ‘n’ is unknown.”

Wall Street’s gold bugs make even less effort to identify value. They merely point to the fact that gold has tended to rise when interest rates have been negative. What they fail to mention is that the gold bubble of 1980 collapsed rapidly after Fed chairman Paul Volcker started raising rates. Over the following two years, the gold price fell by two-thirds. The question of valuation, however tricky, should not be ignored. Gold needs to fall by nearly 70 per cent to reach its long-term average price in inflation-adjusted dollars. To come back in line with its cost of production, the gold price would have to decline by about 55 per cent. Relative to the price of bread, gold is about 40 per cent overvalued and relative to oil it is 9 per cent expensive.

Only in terms of silver does gold appear somewhat cheap. The bulls hope that in real terms gold can regain its 1980 bubble peak, which would provide an upside of more than 70 per cent. But the average of our crude valuation metrics suggests a fair value for gold of less than $1,000 an ounce, about a third below the current price.

This is not to say gold will not rise over the coming year or that there is no need to hedge inflation risks. Rather that prudent investors should look to other, less meretricious, assets to protect the purchasing power of their savings.
..

[denpal]

Gold has lagged many commodities over the last 6 months including wheat and uranium. Actually the uranium price is going ahead steadily each week now. Nevertheless I think the POG correction so far has been pretty minimal at 6%. Even if it ran to 10% that's no big deal either, except to provide a great opportunity to buy heavily discounted gold stocks.

[Huang Chung]

Looking at a 10min. chart I'm wondering if the final death plunge is underway.

Skol's been watching waaaay too many episodes of Air Crash Investigation and Seconds From Disaster....

[Huang Chung]

1.3% since last night. A little journalistic licence is allowed.

I think Virgin Blue was down around 4% because of the hit their bottom line will take from the floods and their 'black swan' computer meltdowns.....

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Virgin-flags-40m-revenue-hit-slump-in-H1-profit-pd20110125-DEUU3?OpenDocument&src=hp4

[Skol]

Gold has lagged many commodities over the last 6 months including wheat and uranium. Actually the uranium price is going ahead steadily each week now. Nevertheless I think the POG correction so far has been pretty minimal at 6%. Even if it ran to 10% that's no big deal either, except to provide a great opportunity to buy heavily discounted gold stocks.

That's it den, you keep buying them, all the way down.

[elZorro]

Skol, there's a few flaws in that article.. (http://www.xtranormal.com/watch/8291633)

[Skol]

Ok, bad jobs report and gold up $10.00

Gold....safe haven champion of the world.

Thought I might be hearing from you HC.
Gold still the champion of the world? Not from what I've been reading, the big boys can't unload it fast enough.

[Vtrader]

Skol, there's a few flaws in that article.. (http://www.xtranormal.com/watch/8291633)

EZ,
where do you find the time...
Should be watching charts...
V.

[elZorro]

EZ,
where do you find the time...
Should be watching charts...
V.

Hi Vtrader, it's not that hard to do the videos, great fun, not sure how they're going down though, might give it a break. Maybe too many are on dial-up or are running without speakers?
Bought some OGC today, gold must turn if the goldbugs on this thread are to save face..cheers.

[Huang Chung]

Thought I might be hearing from you HC.
Gold still the champion of the world? Not from what I've been reading, the big boys can't unload it fast enough.

Well Skol, gold is going down a bit, but is still over $1,300, so saying 'the big boys can't unload it fast enough' seems a bit rich.

How low will gold go....I have no idea, but with all the uncertainty about the PIIGS, US debt levels etc, you be making a big call to say gold will crash.

Personally, I'm now only holding one gold stock (and only about 7% of the maximum number of shares I held). I've been mainly buying coal and iron ore stocks with the proceeds, but also a couple of industrials (CDD, NOD)).

Riding the gold wave has certainly been very profitable.

[Hoop]

.....
Bought some OGC today, gold must turn if the goldbugs on this thread are to save face..cheers.

Geez..ELZ...you did what???????? you just said you sold some.

You better get Mr Fawlty ready..for when P reads this post

[elZorro]

Geez..ELZ...you did what???????? you just said you sold some.

You better get Mr Fawlty ready..for when P reads this post

Er, I bought according to the EZ equation, those shares are a bargain, as long as gold sticks around $1300?? Yes, I suppose I'll be doing some pennance.
Speaking of characters for my next video, if there ever is one, would Mr P. feature? Hmm.

This is an interesting video (a real one) showing gold is oversold, the market waiting for an indicator that it's turning up.
http://club.ino.com/trading/2011/01/the-big-secret-behind-golds-100-collapse/
Of course it could continue to remain oversold.

[evilroyrule]

Er, I bought according to the EZ equation, those shares are a bargain, as long as gold sticks around $1300?? Yes, I suppose I'll be doing some pennance.
Speaking of characters for my next video, if there ever is one, would Mr P. feature? Hmm.

This is an interesting video (a real one) showing gold is oversold, the market waiting for an indicator that it's turning up.
http://club.ino.com/trading/2011/01/the-big-secret-behind-golds-100-collapse/
Of course it could continue to remain oversold.

possible bottom in. bouncing now. plus 6.00. 2 hours left. was down early in trading. we will see i guess.:ohmy:

[Skol]

Well Skol, gold is going down a bit, but is still over $1,300, so saying 'the big boys can't unload it fast enough' seems a bit rich.

Why do you think the POG's falling, tonnes of gold exiting the ETFs. I'm more interested in companies that stand to gain from repairing the flood damage.

[trackers]

That's it den, you keep buying them, all the way down.

I thought thats what you do without realising it, you big contrarian you...

Us traditional investors like to buy when its going up and sell when its going down. Gold still well above 200day M.A

3190

[denpal]

Let's see where my nmgoa's end the day, bought at 32-33c just a few days ago. They've just released the best quarterly report I have ever read. POG bounced hard off 1322.90. John Embry from Sprott's reckons this engineered low will be the cheapest time to buy gold in 2011.

[Skol]

Let's see where my nmgoa's end the day, bought at 32-33c just a few days ago. They've just released the best quarterly report I have ever read. POG bounced hard off 1322.90. John Embry from Sprott's reckons this engineered low will be the cheapest time to buy gold in 2011.

What else are the gold 'gurus' gonna say? It's amazing, according to the gold snakeoil salesmen, it's always on the way up. Clive Maund, Richard Russell, the Aden sisters, Peter Schiff, all telling everyone to pile in.

'Engineered low', that'll be the 'suppressors' right?

I guess I just don't understand, only the goldbugs have got the big picture, the rest of us are uneducated peons.

[Skol]

evilroyrule told me to lighten up a bit, so here's a newsletter from Richard Russell for a hoot.

In May last year he was telling everyone to batten down the hatches and to sell anything they can.

Good ol' Rich says by the end of the year (last year) "you won't recognise the country", with a photo of what looks to be a survivalist. Get out of stocks he says and buy gold. Since then the Dow's up 11.3%. A major stockmarket crash was on the cards he reckoned.

In his latest newsletter Russell says the dollar has lost all stability and the crash is going to happen now.

www.businessinsider.com/dow-theorist-richard-russell-sell-everything-liquid-you-wont-recognize-america-by-the-end-of-the-year-2010-5

Be interesting to know how many suckers do what this moron says.

[denpal]

What else are the gold 'gurus' gonna say? It's amazing, according to the gold snakeoil salesmen, it's always on the way up. Clive Maund, Richard Russell, the Aden sisters, Peter Schiff, all telling everyone to pile in.

'Engineered low', that'll be the 'suppressors' right?

I guess I just don't understand, only the goldbugs have got the big picture, the rest of us are uneducated peons.

Don't forget the HUI is up 850% and the XGD Index up 550% over the last 10 years while the DOW has increased 10%, the ASX 43% by comparison. You can't deny that Skol, a massive trend that you have totally lost out on year after year! With much more to come too IMO.

[evilroyrule]

skol, i am not a goldbug but i am an uneducated moron. but i do like your new style, it suits you. and your new hairdo.

[Skol]

Don't forget the HUI is up 850% and the XGD Index up 550% over the last 10 years while the DOW has increased 10%, the ASX 43% by comparison. You can't deny that Skol, a massive trend that you have totally lost out on year after year! With much more to come too IMO.

The HUI has gone up by 590% in 10 years by my calculation and referring to the ASX website the XGD chart only goes back to 2006 when it was reconfigured, so I'm not sure where you get your numbers from.
I might have missed out as you say but I'm not ever likely to allocate more than what I would call a rational amount to any one asset. If goldbugs are dumb enough to listen to the likes of Richard Russell then more fool them.
I'm surprised the SEC hasn't become involved with such scandalous and outrageous claims.