Gold

[upside_umop]

I'm really enjoying this thread - of course all of us are right - some of the time. Those thinking gold will go up for a while yet have plenty of evidence for that, while on the other side there are those that are saying "If it was that easy, we would all be betting on it".

So am I. I still don't see the evidence! Most articles you guys post and countering each other 'rampant inflation' and then 'all this points towards deflation.' Gold is a store of wealth right? Therefore it's the inflation/deflation that matters.





UU, yes gold is volatile, but I can usually wait to get the timing right when buying or selling OGC, so that is a good thing. I've only just started to see how the dynamics for gold work, and how linked the two are. It has become easier to predict what might happen (I'm still no good at it). One other really good thing about gold is that there are many who write their comments on its direction, whereas an individual share might be lower in support on the web.

As long as you usually get the timing right you'll be in the money EZ. :-)


I am unlikely to hold gold at home when I can own shares in a miner. But you should not own shares in that industry without keeping an eye on the gold price and its direction. It's a leveraged gold investment, but it works both ways.

As owning a company in any industry would be. I wish some of these companies would reduce their risk and hedge their gold price. Look at NAV. They could add significant shareholder value by hedging a portion of their production so they don't become such a high leveraged play. I guess there is no reason why I couldn't self hedge. Still, there is operational risk for this start up.

[Skol]

$1226 bout time it started moving $1300 here we come

Could well be JB, you never know.
It's not because of a better yield, expectations of better earnings, improving economy, etc, the reason gold is going up is because - gold is going up.

[inghamp]

Clearly none of has a crystal ball with regards to the price movement of gold.

But there are a few factors we know about, e.g. the mass quantitative easing of fiat currencies.. it's the results of this that are hard to determine in the long term. This world is far more interconnected than ever before and we move money into and out of currencies/asset classes with never before seen speed.

The amount of speculation WILL increase in the markets and the average middle class earner will get burned. We've seen this countless times in history. I'm not saying its a cycle or anything. More a tendency given the correct conditions.

What would you suggest someone with NO understanding of all things financial do in the above circumstances. How will they ride this storm? They will not trust the financial experts...

This is a real fear millions of mum and dads have. This is one reason why I think they will turn to gold.

Its understandable that Skol finds it hard to understand people's fascination for gold. But like elZorro said, the perception exists and unless you can think of a way for this perception to evaporate overnight (especially difficult given the vested interest of so many who have gold holdings) then this will remain a constant.

Think outside your own square for a second. Not everyone has the technical no how that you guys do. Which I must say is really great. I am getting there but it takes time and dedication. I have stocks (up 79% in 11 months - taken a killing recently - stop losses kicked in) but put that down to luck.

But yeah basically i am asking if you guys can put on your behavioral finance hats for the average person. Who will they behave?

[JBmurc]

(Kitco News) -- Worries about a fragile U.S. economy are likely to keep investors shifting toward gold and could push the metal to fresh record highs near the $1,300 area by year-end, analysts and traders say.
December gold futures early Tuesday peaked at $1,231.10 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, their strongest level since late June. They eventually settled $2.10 higher at $1,228.30 an ounce.
As of 3:36 p.m. EDT (1936 GMT), spot gold was 60 cents higher at $1,226.10.
Mike Daly, gold and silver specialist with PFGBest, looks for gold to “go much higher” than the record hit earlier this summer due to uncertain U.S. economic conditions and a still “fragile” environment in Europe, where sovereign-debt issues were a major focus earlier this year. The peak for a most-active Comex futures contract was $1,266.50 back in June.
“Economic numbers here, such as housing and jobs growth, have been very negative,” Daly said. “That is giving savvy investors globally a lack of confidence in fiat currencies. Most people right now, who have disposable income, are preferring to get into more tangible assets, primarily gold and silver, for a safer-haven investment.
“They see that gold and silver and precious metals in general have retained value better than most commodities over the last couple of years.”
Kevin Grady, a trader on the Comex floor with MF Global, cited continuing foreclosures are a harbinger of further support for gold, since it shows many Americans are still struggling amid weak economic conditions. In fact, with a federal-funds-rate target of zero to one-quarter percent, the Federal Reserve is essentially offering “free money” to banks with the hope lending will jump-start the economy, he said. Yet, many Americans are not able to borrow, unless they have a high credit rating and cash for large down payments.
“And the people who have money are saving,” said Grady, who looks for $1,300 gold by January. “People are holding onto what they have.”
Meanwhile, government debt continues increasing.
“I think it's a slow grind, but gold should go much higher from here,” Grady concluded.


Michael Gross, broker and futures analyst with OptionSellers.com, described his company as “cautiously bullish” on gold on ideas that any economic recovery could be “spotty.” Still, the metal could experience “fits and starts” rather than moving up in a straight line. He figures gold could “modestly eclipse” the highs from June in the foreseeable future and later in the year potentially hit $1,275 or even push $1,300.


Further support may come from political uncertainties in the U.S., with congressional elections this fall, as well as debate among lawmakers on whether to continue some or all of the Bush Administration tax cuts due to expire at the end of the year. This could put some pressure on equities and prompt some movement into gold, Gross said.


“Uncertainty tends to be good for precious metals,” Gross said. “If people are not sure what to do with their money, they put it into gold. That seems to be the safe and conservative bet, and we expect that to continue in the second half of the year.”


Investors are “tired” of the uncertainty in which government or central-bank officials suggest improvement in the economy, with their comments followed by weak jobs data, Daly said.


“There is so much fear based on what is going on in Washington,” said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist with
Lind-Waldock who also anticipates $1,300 gold yet this year. “You're getting new investors looking at gold and silver.”


Charles Nedoss, senior market strategist with Olympus Futures, looks for further U.S. dollar weakness, which in turn tends to support gold. Investors often buy the metal as a hedge against a softening greenback, plus a weak dollar makes commodities less expensive in other currencies and thus can boost demand.


Low market-set interest rates, as a result of a soft economy, may result in an eventual retest of the 80 area for the dollar index, Nedoss said. It currently stands just above 82.

“I just don't see that turning around,” said Nedoss, also anticipating $1,300 gold. “I think the economy is showing us now that it's fragile enough that it can't withstand higher rates.”

Seasonal Factors Could Provide Additional Support

While analysts describe macroeconomic conditions as favorable, the calendar is approaching the time of year when gold tends to get a seasonal boost.


“We're getting closer to the (autumn) wedding and festival season in India,” Daly said. “That is normally a time when gold spikes a little bit.”

September and October tend to be strong months for silver and gold alike, Haberkorn said. “Of all years, from an economic standpoint in this country and around the world, I think an upside move is more than warranted,” Haberkorn said.


Once the gift-giving season winds down in India, physical buying of gold often continues ahead of Christmas in Western nations and later the Chinese New Year.


Still, Gross cautioned that the economy will remain the key catalyst more-so than any seasonal tendencies. In recent years, gold has traded “almost exclusively” based on economic expectations, he said.

“I would expect that to continue,” Gross said. “Any physical (seasonal) support would certainly help gold, but we don't see that as the potential major price determinant for gold over the next several months.”

[elZorro]

Greetings JB, nice post there. Here's a gift idea for you Skol:



Once the gift-giving season winds down in India, physical buying of gold often continues ahead of Christmas in Western nations and later the Chinese New Year.



How impressive would that be, to give someone an ounce of gold to keep (or a gold coin), as a Christmas present.

I think $1300 is on the light side as a near-term target. It's already reached $1260 recently, so that would be just 3% higher than the dollar value high, which of course is not inflation adjusted.

[Skol]

Greetings JB, nice post there. Here's a gift idea for you Skol:



How impressive would that be, to give someone an ounce of gold to keep (or a gold coin), as a Chrismas present.

I think $1300 is on the light side as a near-term target. It's already reached $1260 recently, so that would be just 3% higher than the dollar value high, which of course is not inflation adjusted.

Aaaah, no thanks EZ, I won't be jumping on board the gold 'investment' bandwagon. The hoarding's likely to stop any day and I don't like getting my fingers burned.
Most of the reasons to hoard gold have gone away (war with North Korea, H1N1, Macondo Well plugged, banks OK, no hyperinflation), but I have to give goldbugs credit, where there's no reason to own it they'll find one and the latest is the season is wrong apparently, the chart is looking good and confiscation just around the corner.

They'd have to be the most optimistic group anywhere, even resorting to a spoon-bending type of philosophy, psyching gold higher with posts like 'gold's going to $1650' or 'gold will finish the year at $1366'.

JB's guru, Peter Schiff has been crying the hyperinflation wolf for years, for so long in fact only the goldbugs haven't given up on it, but if they get depressed there's always the goldbug catastrophe websites to cheer them up. The catch-cry is quantative easing (the goldbugs favourite words) and while printing has been occurring no meltdown appears imminent in fact I would say that the best thing about the GFC I can think of is that thousands of bankers found themselves looking for a real job.

I was down at the Docklands in London on the day the Lehman Bros bankers were given their marching orders and watched them take a walk. Even the FT a few days later had no sympathy, given that these 'experts' had leveraged their assets 35 times.

[elZorro]

Posted by Skol: I was down at the Docklands in London on the day the Lehman Bros bankers were given their marching orders and watched them take a walk. Even the FT a few days later had no sympathy, given that these 'experts' had leveraged their assets 35 times.


Skol - Brilliant post, I thought that one about the Christmas gold would get you going..

I am also not so keen on the financial sector. I have been denied funds at crucial times, and on the other side when I did put money into Tower's super fund, there was some fine print, that we were never shown.

A graph would have spelt it out: stick your money in here and leave it with us to earn a paltry amount (sometimes losses) on the stock market, we'll charge you another 7% p.a. for the priviledge, and if you want your money back well before you retire, we'll simply take 60%-35% of the capital as well (sliding scale). We waited until Tower dished out shares to everyone, and sold as soon as we could. We just about broke even after paying in for several years. And that was Tower.

[JBmurc]

No that right SKOL Silver is a much better investment percent wise even my Silver bullion holding is up over 20%pa in real buy sell free market terms an thats the stupid metal that goes into so many important parts of your planes that cannot be replaced by other metal of the same Quality
I heard on news recently their has been 26 Airlines gone toes up over the last year.

But back to GOLD the big Gold picture --the trend is your friend

[elZorro]

Isn't that a great looking graph? I was looking for something on silver and found bonds instead: are treasury notes an indicator of bad times ahead? Gold also recommended.

http://www.dailywealth.com/1445/Wall-Street-Legend-This-Market-Just-Flashed-a-Huge-Warning-Signal

JB, you'll know all this, I'm just posting it for Skol..:p

http://www.thedailycrux.com/content/5492/Bankruptcy

[JBmurc]

Yeah the USD is doomed an with it the mass of debt attacted watch the many debt laden nations work to create their new currency within the next 5yrs an off-load their debt laden fiat currencies esp if the US starts it off lets hope the new currencies have some real backing
How they will do this will be what they are currently planning just like "the mass weapons of mass destruction of IRAQ" for the reason to invade an control -I'm sure they come up with some reason to collaspe/bankrupt etc an to start a fresh just like the yank home owners they have massive debts they can't afford just walk away with declared bankruptcies a way to start again debt free..

[upside_umop]

No that right SKOL Silver is a much better investment percent wise even my Silver bullion holding is up over 20%pa in real buy sell free market terms an thats the stupid metal that goes into so many important parts of your planes that cannot be replaced by other metal of the same Quality
I heard on news recently their has been 26 Airlines gone toes up over the last year.

But back to GOLD the big Gold picture --the trend is your friend

Would you fancy posting that chart in real prices?

[elZorro]

Quite a tidy site, interesting comments on the recent gold/equity correction, watching silver.

http://goldscents.blogspot.com/2010/08/something-bg-is-brewing.html

[JBmurc]

Would you fancy posting that chart in real prices?

In real prices I'm talking the average selling an buying prices here in NZ from the likes of NZ mint,Trademe,Silver recovery ACB etc that I made not the spot prices which have actually been better but as we seen when silver was at it's lows $15-$17oz NZD the real margin over spot were much more than now the cheapest I was buying for per oz was round $24 now the average per oz selling price is $32-$35

[upside_umop]

No, I fully accept the price it was traded at, but I don't accept it in todays prices. I.e. You need to take into account inflation.

[JBmurc]

No, I fully accept the price it was traded at, but I don't accept it in todays prices. I.e. You need to take into account inflation.

An how much inflation have we had in the last couple years ? housing wise I'm building a better home locally for cheaper than I did with the 4 others I built 4-7yrs ago crazy but true so in that respect their has been some deflation here in property build prices--
But I guessing your talking on the fact of fiat money inflation (say I left my funds of the last year into my local bank say at a high 5% p.a instead of Silver bullion i'd have turned my 40k into 42k less 33% tax + bank charges $40 - on the 2k p.a so if I was lucky I might have made round $1300 or low 3.25% but instead my 40k went into a long term silver bullion investment i.e non-taxable
An say paid average $25oz(which I did) an say now the free market average selling price is $30oz(12 months later which it was) my nett paper profit 20% less true Fiat money inflation I would have recieved at the bank of 3.25% so for that year I was 16.75% better off after Inflation savy

[Skol]

If you had bought gold in 1967 you would have made a 7% return if you sold it now.
Then you should deduct the opportunity cost, i.e. the cost of storing and insuring, and not forgetting that you could probably have done better putting the money in the bank. The volatility on gold makes it a much riskier 'investment' , so the return should have been much greater.

[Skol]

An say paid average $25oz(which I did) an say now the free market average selling price is $30oz(12 months later which it was) my nett paper profit 20% less true Fiat money inflation I would have recieved at the bank of 3.25% so for that year I was 16.75% better off after Inflation savy

No I don't savy. Silver being advertised for $28oz on Trademe but no one's taking the bait.

[elZorro]

I found these charts for gold using two inflation adjusted methods. The standard CPI one implies a few percent gain p.a., ($1,000 over 40 years =500% gain) the other no real gain at the moment. But that would mean gold can go much higher, and has done so before.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1277150455.php

An excerpt from a goldbug site, sure, but a compound interest for gold itself is mentioned.


TGR: You mentioned inflation and, in your last interview with The Gold Report, you said: "Bernanke and the Fed are pursuing a loose monetary policy with a 0% interest rate. There's actually no way we cannot end up in inflation." We're starting to see signs of it now. How is gold going to act in an inflationary environment and, perhaps, even in a hyperinflationary environment?

John Doody: Gold's going up now; it's going to go up more. One of the uses of gold is to protect your purchasing power from inflation, and it's done a damn good job! It always drives me crazy when these talking heads on TV talk about gold now vs. $850 in 1980. They say, "Oh, look where it's gone!" It's gone nowhere. That was a one-day high. The next day the Gold Price (http://gold.bullionvault.com/How/GoldPrice) was $738. More important is to look at the Gold Price (http://gold.bullionvault.com/How/GoldPrice) from when it was set free in 1968. It was fixed at $35 for over 30 years. If you just took that $35 from March '68, and I did in a recent issue of the Gold Stock Analyst, and adjusted it by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), gold would have grown from $35 to about $225. That's your inflation protection; everything above $225 all the way up to the current price and the next $1000 – that's all investment gains. From '68 to the present, gold had had an 8.6% compound annual growth rate that was 4.4% above the inflation rate for the period.

TGR: But you hold Gold Mining (http://gold.bullionvault.com/How/GoldMining) equities, and you don't hold bullion. In the last market crash, everything crashed – even the gold equities.

John Doody: That's true. The reason that I hold gold equities is because you get better leverage to the Gold Price (http://gold.bullionvault.com/How/GoldPrice). We always have to remember that while the stocks are derivatives of gold, they are stocks first. If the buyers disappear for stocks, they disappear for gold stocks too. But when they come back, they come back with a vengeance. In 2009, the Gold Price (http://gold.bullionvault.com/How/GoldPrice) was up 28% and the XAU was up 37% but the Gold Stock Analyst's Top 10 was up 130%. That's the leverage you can get from owning the right stocks.


The full link: http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/gold_mining_052420107

You can say what you like about gold, it might be a waste of space in a vault. But if I could turn $100k into close to $1mill by spotting (and investing in) another opportunity like OGC and many miners presented in the last 20 months, I want to know all about why that happened.

[Skol]

But that would mean gold can go much higher, and has done so before

Goldseek - remember EZ what I said about goldbugs being the most optimistic bunch on the planet.
I hope you read the disclaimer - 'Goldseek.com makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or the completeness of the information ..........'.

The expression ' past performance is no guarantee of future returns' applies here.

[JBmurc]

Quite a tidy site, interesting comments on the recent gold/equity correction, watching silver.

http://goldscents.blogspot.com/2010/08/something-bg-is-brewing.html

from your link Elzorro is why I put F/A before T/A on buying shares
--This is one of the big drawbacks to relying solely on technical analysis. At bottoms the technicals will always look terrible. If one basis their trades solely on technicals they will forever be selling at bottoms and eventually they will destroy their portfolio

-yeah Skol good to see your keeping an eye on the free market their is aways a few bargins around that 50oz bar is real cheap basically at the same price the miners get paid for their silver they produce here--- The bar here in NZ mining terms would have taking pocessing of at least 600 tons of ore to getting enough silver to make that bar--
I am very temped to sell a few shares an buy that bar for my Kiwi saver plan

-Still holding the same shares SKOL I see TLS get hammered recently too bad you don't follow some of my picks SVL up over 40% for under a month my most recent buy

[peat]

--This is one of the big drawbacks to relying solely on technical analysis. At bottoms the technicals will always look terrible. If one basis their trades solely on technicals they will forever be selling at bottoms and eventually they will destroy their portfolio

Dont agree with this.
Everyone on this site seems to think theres only one way of doing technical analysis
Some TA uses different methodologies such as looking for likely areas of resistance/support and selling/buying into those

gold holding above 1225
silver not as strong

I checked out your comments re Trademe Skol
there were quite a few bidders on silver oz's but yes they werent paying over NZ28 as of yesterday. But in very recent past not a skerrick could be had below 30. Might take another spike up to create some fervour again. I'm picking silver will hit 20 again soon.

[Hoop]

from your link Elzorro is why I put F/A before T/A on buying shares
--This is one of the big drawbacks to relying solely on technical analysis. At bottoms the technicals will always look terrible. If one basis their trades solely on technicals they will forever be selling at bottoms and eventually they will destroy their portfolio.......


JB ..that's garbage...TA knowledgable people don't sell at the bottom because they are already out of the market ..you know that.
Re : bottoms...picking exact tops and bottoms as it happens is near impossible..hence the saying.. "picking bottoms gives you sh1tty fingers".

P may be on holiday but I'm not;)

[Skol]

-Still holding the same shares SKOL I see TLS get hammered recently too bad you don't follow some of my picks SVL up over 40% for under a month my most recent buy
No worries about TLS, it'll be back. I bought AWB at $1 a few weeks back and just sold for $1.44, not too bad.
On the subject of your picks I don't take too much notice after NAV's dreadful performance you need a win.
UU made a disparaging remark about it too, which I thought might prompt a reply.

[JBmurc]

JB ..that's garbage...TA knowledgable people don't sell at the bottom because they are already out of the market ..you know that.
Re : bottoms...picking exact tops and bottoms as it happens is near impossible..hence the saying.. "picking bottoms gives you sh1tty fingers".

P may be on holiday but I'm not;)

LOL knew that would spark up a few yes yes T/A experts usually make sure there out before the shares trend even lower because they follow the MA look at OGC.asx for one shows the MA60day holding till just recently where it broke through so Mr T/A expert would have sold now he will wait to the SP heads higher over the MA60day before buying back in-

Still I put F/A before T/A in buying a share because I don't sit in front of screen 24/7 waiting for the MA or resistance to break before buying an miss-out on alot of the growth the more you Trade the more you will use T/A any investor will be paying tax in no time if he sold every MA cross on his shares so F/A is by far what most here need to do before buying longer term unless you want to pay the Tax man

[JBmurc]

No worries about TLS, it'll be back. I bought AWB at $1 a few weeks back and just sold for $1.44, not too bad.
On the subject of your picks I don't take too much notice after NAV's dreadful performance you need a win.
UU made a disparaging remark about it too, which I thought might prompt a reply.

Well get ready because NAV won't be down for long(still above want I paid)
my other buys over the last few months check the threads for proof I unlike many state before the shares go up
PENOA-19.5c
ROC-33.5c
SSNO-2.1c-5.4
SVL-10.5c
CFE-33.5c

[elZorro]

JB ..that's garbage...TA knowledgable people don't sell at the bottom because they are already out of the market ..you know that.
Re : bottoms...picking exact tops and bottoms as it happens is near impossible..hence the saying.. "picking bottoms gives you sh1tty fingers".

P may be on holiday but I'm not;)

Sorry about that JB, I had no idea there was a disparaging comment about TA in that link..didn't mean to get you into trouble..:eek2:

[JBmurc]

Sorry about that JB, I had no idea there was a disparaging comment about TA in that link..didn't mean to get you into trouble..:eek2:

Doesn't worry me mate good to get a bit a life back in the thread the overall ASX thread for one has be pretty lifeless of late

[Hoop]

Doesn't worry me mate good to get a bit a life back in the thread the overall ASX thread for one has be pretty lifeless of late

And so it shouldn't JB:):)
TA V FA has been thrashed to death over the years as we all have witnessed...everyone has their own method of making a $. You can't knock any system that's successful no matter how bizarre it may be.:)

Personally, I mix the two. I Use TA for timing... to enter and exit. Often a great stock gets hammered for no valid reason (a correction) FA unfortunately keeps you in, TA tells you to take advantage of the weakness situation by jumping out (be safe than sorry) and then jump in again when the worm turns...OK Tax Man can be an issue...but I have found I have made more money since paying the Tax man as I haven't restricted myself to staying put in a falling stock because of the number of trades that may attract the IRD attention.

OGC hit a weakness situation in July and I posted on that thread then about it. OK jumping out at SA3.15 and jumping in again 3 weeks later at SA2.95ish seems a little futile to some but the important thing was that a TA person would be out during that weakness that had the potential to be more sinister than what it was. It cost nothing to be out and probably gained some $$ by doing so.

Speaking about bottoms the TA person with more risk would have re-entered the next day after the hammer which happened to be Black Friday:scared:. Other more conservative TA's may have waited for more indicators to fire buy signals. The trendies would have bought on tuesday 16th at about $A3.05.

OGC has been a TA friendly stock it reacts to trends and support and resistance lines very well.

A chart for you Guys to show there is no bias about OGC from me. Self explanatory methinks.

JB ignore the MA 90 line I drew it in error should have been MA60..however the MA60 is not much different to the MA90 on this chart it does show in this case that it is a rather late confirming indicator.

Update today the share price is at $A3.26 so the late MA60 is confirmed and the 3.15 resistance is well and truly bust so its onwards and upwards again :)

So JB ELZ G8 and others wish you all the best of success
Cheers Hoop.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/ogc_ax10082010.png

[elZorro]

Thanks for the graph, Hoop, and the message. I hope you've bought some OGC for yourself..

I have been very polite with this link, not a goldbug site, both sides of the argument are addressed..and it's up to date ;)

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Dispatch/market-dispatches.aspx?post=1794123&_blg=1,1567925

[Skol]

If you don't thinks gold's in a bubble read the article in the Herald yesterday.
A dealer said that before Sept. 2008 he'd get 3 or 4 local enquiries a day, now he gets 20. Amateurs loading up on gold and silver.

[elZorro]

Is this the article Skol?

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10667148
'
There's a plug for OceanaGold in there..and it's generally fair. So one 'financial advisor' thinks people should stay out of gold, he wouldn't go there. But since 2008 people have been increasingly moving into this 'bubble'. It seems to have a fairly wide timeline. As someone else pointed out, gold hit 840 in the last spike but was at 735 the next day. People are unlikely to buy at the top.

In any case, how would a financial advisor make any commission out of gold. No annual fee, no retainers fee, no hefty upfront payment. I was shocked when I found out that often your first year's life insurance premium on a new policy goes to the agent, for bringing through the business. That's why they hang around to get the cheque, because it's their wages topup you're writing out. Financial advisors are (or have been) no different, often selling those products with the most upfront and ongoing commission, regardless of risk to the holder.

My experience is that there is no easy way to build up investments, it takes homework. Like many on here, I now like to be more in control of what I'm investing in. Apart from there being no leverage to gold (which can be a good thing!), people acting as a herd and buying gold should work out OK. And the price is still not far above the cost of extraction. It's a very rare element.

[JBmurc]

If you don't thinks gold's in a bubble read the article in the Herald yesterday.
A dealer said that before Sept. 2008 he'd get 3 or 4 local enquiries a day, now he gets 20. Amateurs loading up on gold and silver.

-Thats funny I'm sure you where just saying how silver was going cheap on trademe if so how are we in a bubble if we were wouldn't that bar be getting bid up way higher than it's current low spot price??
=20 enquires a day is hardly a bubble wait to he's getting over 200........

-Might pay to do some research on how costly it is to get the gold/silver etc from the earth to the bullion dealer like I was stating back a few posts OGC for one gets what 1.5ish grams per ton of ore of gold from hard rock
-Worldwide major Gold miners grades are falling , many mines are going deeper into the earth to increase their reserves which increasing costs just like Oil floor of costs keeps rising so any major drop in sale price = closes down high cost operations

[CAM]

If you don't thinks gold's in a bubble read the article in the Herald yesterday.
A dealer said that before Sept. 2008 he'd get 3 or 4 local enquiries a day, now he gets 20. Amateurs loading up on gold and silver.

Thats enquiries....how many actual sales?
Are they enquiries about buying or selling?
So many things not there....could be people losing their jobs and looking to sell something to get cash..... who knows...could be anything
What it does show is a greater awareness

[STRAT]

JB ..that's garbage...TA knowledgable people don't sell at the bottom because they are already out of the market ..you know that.
Re : bottoms...picking exact tops and bottoms as it happens is near impossible..hence the saying.. "picking bottoms gives you sh1tty fingers".

P may be on holiday but I'm not;)Good on ya hoop and Peat.:t_up:

Reckon JB must have been bored when he wrote that so thought hed see if he could stir someone up. :lol: Couldnt be left unanswered though :p

[JBmurc]

Good on ya hoop.:t_up:

Reckon JB must have been bored when he wrote that so thought hed see if he could stir someone up. :lol: Couldnt be left unanswered though :p

yes be bored with nothing much going on in my portifilo up 3k one minute down couple hundred the next----- waiting for annoucements.....................might go for a ski

did just read this artricle well worth it for us metal heads-http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1281969661.php

[JBmurc]

Yep getting abit stale round these ASX threads LOL the F/A ---T/A debate always gets the backs up LOL



"The Best gold interview of the year" http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1281969661.php

[elZorro]

Yep getting abit stale round these ASX threads LOL the F/A ---T/A debate always gets the backs up LOL



"The Best gold interview of the year" http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1281969661.php

Wow! What you said JB :t_up:

Regarding the old argument, I found this:

http://www.taguide.com/

But as the name of the site implies, they might be biased..and the general gist was that both methods should be used. The guy that made a lot of dough out of TA, started with FA, so it could be argued that he needed to use both to do really well.

OGC is a case in point: it's FA is good, will only improve. TA work on that share should be directed at the gold chart, during times when the company is carrying on as usual.

[Skol]

EZ, don't fool yourself, gold is not 'rare', there's about 161000 tons and if the PoG goes up they'll dig heaps more out of the ground.

Looks like I'm not the only one who believes gold's a bubble.

www.guardian.co.uk/business/marketforceslive/2010/aug/19/gold

[JBmurc]

EZ, don't fool yourself, gold is not 'rare', there's about 161000 tons and if the PoG goes up they'll dig heaps more out of the ground.

Looks like I'm not the only one who believes gold's a bubble.

www.guardian.co.uk/business/marketforceslive/2010/aug/19/gold

what some 3 half months to go your going need a big drop to see gold sub 1090 keep hoping Skol

[elZorro]

EZ, don't fool yourself, gold is not 'rare', there's about 161000 tons and if the PoG goes up they'll dig heaps more out of the ground.

Looks like I'm not the only one who believes gold's a bubble.

www.guardian.co.uk/business/marketforceslive/2010/aug/19/gold (http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/marketforceslive/2010/aug/19/gold)

You crack me up Skol - I'll bite.. gold is a precious metal and it's rare..

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precious_metal

Normal distribution of gold in the crust is just 4ppb (parts per billion by weight). If a goldmine has a high grade of 4 grams/tonne in ore (4ppm), it is unusually 1,000 times more concentrated than the rest of the Earth's crust. Note silver is a bit more abundant.

I thought the number one rule in shares was to follow the market. I might be catching onto gold a bit late, but I still think there's some moolah to be made here.

[JBmurc]

As I have massive repect for T/A the trend is your friend

[elZorro]

JB, I like that top graph, even if not adjusted for inflation. If only we had that time machine.

Another article from ArabianMoney about China and inflation. Similar to what happened in Japan decades ago.

http://www.arabianmoney.net/gold-silver/2010/08/20/chinese-inflation-to-boost-gold-prices/

[Skol]

You crack me up Skol - I'll bite.. gold is a precious metal and it's rare..

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precious_metal

Normal distribution of gold in the crust is just 4ppb (parts per billion by weight). If a goldmine has a high grade of 4 grams/tonne in ore (5ppm), it is already 1,000 times more concentrated than the rest of the Earth's crust. Note silver is a bit more abundant.

I thought the number one rule in shares was to follow the market. I might be catching onto gold a bit late, but I still think there's some moolah to be made here.

Very interesting EZ, in geological terms it might be described as 'rare', but go down to your local bullion dealer and see if it's 'rare' down there.

[elZorro]

Very interesting EZ, in geological terms it might be described as 'rare', but go down to your local bullion dealer and see if it's 'rare' down there.

The levels of gold available are still tight (http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1281969661.php) (courtesy JB), best they have been for 2 years, but if major money goes after the gold that's around, it would soon be very scarce again. Supply and demand: demand could very well rise dramatically, supply will not. Have a look at the Macraes operation (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/fish-and-game/news/article.cfm?o_id=600638&objectid=10634612): I think their average is that for 11 dump trucks carrying ore out of the pit, only one will have gold-bearing ore good enough to run through the system. The rest is overburden. Their main gold comes from average ore grades of just 1.5 grammes/tonne. That is normally right on the edge of profitability, their current opencast cutoff is about 0.5g/tonne.


And the message is, “Buy now while it's still available.” I know it may sound like I'm trying to sensationalize it, but I'm really not. Based on what I know, it’s my opinion that if 5% of this country (USA) put 5% of their money into gold, there would be nothing left tomorrow morning. Supply is that small compared to the tremendous amount of money that's out there.

[Skol]

EZ,
Any suggestion we are running out of gold and we should stock up is codswallop. Go to the peak oil thread in 2007/2008 and have a look at all the posts pointing to the dire consequences, that oil is on the verge of extinction. Has peak oil happened, have we run out, do I need to go and buy a car with panels that bend in the wind? No!
Don't buy the "it's running out" story because it's not. Something's always running out, silver, food, water, etc.
See if gold's running out when the hoarding stops.

[elZorro]

EZ,
Any suggestion we are running out of gold and we should stock up codswallop. Go to the peak oil thread in 2007/2008 and have a look at all the posts pointing to the dire consequences, that oil is on the verge of extinction. Has peak oil happened, have we run out, do I need to go and buy a car with panels that bend in the wind? No!
Don't buy the "it's running out" story because it's not. Something's always running out, silver, food, water, etc.
See if gold's running out when the hoarding stops.

Skol, all I can say in defense of gold is that it's not oil. You can't just drill a lucky hole in the ground and it shoots to the surface under pressure, millions of barrels at a time. Look at that site in the gulf, oil blowing out for weeks, didn't look like stopping until they capped it.

In view of the imminent danger of hoarding by the Intelligentsia, would you like me to order an ounce or two for you Skol, or are you sticking with DOW? :) (Dig, dig).

[Skol]

Hey EZ,
You're a Goldseek fan, have a read of this:

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1282496400.php

Isn't it hilarious, gold $10,400, Oil $250, Silver $75 to $650, nothing like leaving a little bit of latitude.. LOL

These gold websites are getting more desperate every day. It's a little like JB's guru, Peter Schiff's tea leaf reading.

[inghamp]

Agreed Skol. Too much fortelling and not enough current statistical evidence.. It all depends on the magnitude of inflation we get. (after the deflation or with no deflation..) Those numbers look big but it's all relative to the spending power of that dollar.. $10,400 is not spending value in todays terms...

[elZorro]

Hey EZ,
You're a Goldseek fan, have a read of this:

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1282496400.php

Isn't it hilarious, gold $10,400, Oil $250, Silver $75 to $650, nothing like leaving a little bit of latitude.. LOL

These gold websites are getting more desperate every day. It's a little like JB's guru, Peter Schiff's tea leaf reading.

I agree Skol, that's quite poor maths and conjecture regarding the price. I did some calculations on OGC, they possibly have 9Moz of resources all up at the moment, but are only removing 300,000 oz per year. It'll take 30 years to get it all sold. If the price of gold doubled, I'm sure they'd throw everything at it, to get it out faster if it was possible. Maybe that's an indicator, goldmines are fairly profitable at the moment, but there's no mad scramble to up the production yet. Increasing the throughput requires massive capital investment usually.

You took a while to reply...are you thinking seriously about some ingots then?

[Skol]

You took a while to reply...are you thinking seriously about some ingots then?

No ingots for me but OGC is forming a very interesting T/A pattern, that's what I am watching though.

[elZorro]

No ingots for me but OGC is forming a very interesting T/A pattern, that's what I am watching though.

Do you mean someone has just bought 200k shares at $3.27 Aussie? I'm not sure what gold is doing chartwise.

[elZorro]

More bad news in the States (housing market at 15 year low), the Dow dropped again and gold moved up nearly $25 in one hit back to over $1235 before resting just below $1230. You should have bought those nuggets yesterday Skol..

[JBmurc]

More bad news in the States (housing market at 15 year low), the Dow dropped again and gold moved up nearly $25 in one hit back to over $1235 before resting just below $1330. You should have bought those nuggets yesterday Skol..

1330 not yet soon

If you want to read some real anti gold rubbish Skol read KITCO employed Jon nadler this guy is a complete tool (for kitco to be anti-gold strange when you think kitco business is to sell PGMs)
some of the latest from nadler 24th


Once again, the headlines relating to gold’s slippage served to underscore its recent positive correlation to equities (and certain currencies); assets against which it normally moves against, but ones that the entrée of speculative hedge funds into the bullion market has now morphed into the current paradigm. The yellow metal traded at one-week lows near the $1,215.00 level in the wake of the ‘generalized selling.’ It was-once again-the dollar’s turn to grab ‘safe-haven’ related headlines this morning.

Thus, this morning, there were more than a few news outlets citing ‘everything is falling and being sold off’ as the reason for gold not doing what it is actually supposed to do under such circumstances. “We will continue to see lower gold prices.” said Wallace Ng, Hong Kong-based executive director with ABN Amro Securities Asia Ltd. “It is following the weakness of general markets, like stocks, commodities and energy

[elZorro]

Thanks for the correction JB. Wishful thinking perhaps!

One comment on yesterday's gold trading here. (http://www.thestreet.com/story/10842781/1/golds-selloff-may-not-last.html)

[JBmurc]

Texas (Kitco News) -- U.S. Rep. Ron Paul , R-Tex., plans to introduce a new bill next year that will allow for an audit of US gold reserves, he told Kitco News in an exclusive interview.

Paul dropped the news in the interview, indicating that the bill still does not have an official name yet but will be unveiled at the start of the new U.S. Congress.

“If there was no question about the gold being there, you think they would be anxious to prove gold is there,” he said of the Federal Reserve.

This is not the first time the congressman has made his pitch. “In the early 1980s when I was on the gold commission, I asked them to recommend to the Congress that they audit the gold reserves – we had 17 members of the commission and 15 voted not to the audit,” said Paul. “I think there was only one decent audit done 50 years ago,” he said.

Though Paul did not say whether there is any truth to claims that there is no gold in Fort Knox or the New York Federal Reserve, he said, “I think it is a possibility.”

“If we ever get around to deciding we should use gold in relationship to our currency we ought to know how much is there,” said Paul. “Our Federal Reserve admits to nothing and they should prove all the gold is there. There is a reason to be suspicious and even if you are not suspicious why wouldn’t you have an audit?” he said.

The gold audit follows his crusade last year looking to audit the Federal Reserve, which he says is the chief culprit behind the economic crisis.

“I don’t think the Federal Reserve should exist – it would be best for congress to exert their responsibilities and that is find out what they are doing”' said Paul. "It is an ominous amount of power they have to create money out of thin air and being the reserve currency of the world and be able to finance runaway spending whether it is for welfare or warfare; it seems so strange that we have been so complacent not to even look at the books. If we knew exactly what they were doing, who they were taking care of, there would be a growing momentum to reassess the whole system,” he told Kitco News.

Before the creation of the Federal Reserve however, the US saw 16 recessions from 1850 to 1910; they averaged 22 months long. During this time, the U.S. was in recession 60 out of 91 months. Many would argue that the severity of these recessions led to the creation of the Federal Reserve System.

“I think they would be exaggerating what happened before 1913,” Paul responds. “We had some panics …they were usually short and there were no long depressions,” he said. “The Fed creates the bubbles and they are much worse since 1913, if you think of the size of the government and the valuation of the dollar, we are down to about a 2 cent dollar from the 1913 dollar.”

Paul said everyone accuses him of wanting the gold standard but he said he doesn't accept that. “I accept the idea of a gold coin standard and I think we can do much better than what we had," he said. "There was a lot that they did pre-Fed that was not exactly right but we never had a disastrous loss of purchasing power long-term, we didn’t have a great depression, we didn’t have the 1970s with stagflation and we wouldn’t have what we have right now.”

Since the Fed’s creation in 1913 the dollar has lost more than 96% of its value, and by inflating the money supply the Fed continues to distort interest rates and intentionally erodes the value of the dollar said Paul.

Paul’s solution is to not replace the Fed with anything. “It would make the dollar strong… who wants money to be devalued? I want a strong dollar and if it were equivalent to gold it would remain strong.”

Paul also said he wants to legalize the freedom for people to choose. “My proposal for now is to legalize the constitution to use gold and silver as legal tender in a parallel standard and have it compete with paper money. If people get tired of using the paper standard they can deal in gold or silver,” he said.

On the topic of gold price manipulation, Paul said, “I think it is probably true.”

“I am not the one to lay out proof of this, others have done a lot of investigation. One of the reasons I don’t dwell on that is they are not going to listen to us" he said. "But I think it is very important somebody talks about it and emphasizes it just as a warning to be careful; you don’t have to only anticipate what the markets are doing, but you have to anticipate what the government is doing.”

The best example of manipulating the ratio of gold to paper would have been from the late 1950s to 1971, said Paul. “We printed money like currency, we printed too many dollars against the gold, so they said, ‘we will take your gold.’ …if they are capable of that they are capable of doing this as well, because they don’t want their cover blown, ” said Paul. If the markets are saying not to trust paper money, they have to do everything they can to “destroy gold,” said Paul.

Recounting a visit with Paul Volcker, former Chairman of the Fed Reserve, Rep. Paul said the Chairman walked straight into the room, went immediately to his staffer and asked what the price of gold was. “They know gold is important. I think they are quite willing to manipulate it. That is the only way they can maintain this false illusion about gold.”

“If they are involved isn’t it pretty amazing what has happened in past year? What will happen if they throw in the towel?” said Paul.

The current economic situation is very healthy for gold, said Paul. “You see people rushing just to put their money in any place …they don’t even care about making money.”

[upside_umop]

Imagine if there was no gold at Fort Knox. Imagine if it hasn't been there for the last 50 years! One things for sure, we're still alive! Money does not need to be backed by gold.

What would exist instead of the Federal Reserve, JB? In that case, what would exist instead of all central banks around the world?

It's nice to know he doesn't believe in facts "I believe they're over exaggerating...."

The great depression was because the Fed Reserve didn't act properly. It reduced money supply, instead of expanding it! Ie it put up effectively increased wholesale interest rates at the time the economy was in recession.....what would that do to your incentives JB?

16 recessions in 60 years. One in less than every 4 years. If they define a recession as they do now, (2 consecutive quarters of negative economic growth), then those figures are horrible! Now days (since dropping the gold standard) we have had a recession on average every 8 or so years. We have also had economic growth - the standard of living is much higher now, as is the net worth of individuals than ever on the gold standard.

One other question for you JB. Why would you let the money supply (the ability to adjust interest rates to change peoples behavior and thus economics) be controlled by the geological factors of the earth in getting the stuff out of the ground? Can you imagine it?

Think of money as gold, only that its marginal cost of production is virtually zero (no waste - why spend $$$$ getting an ounce of gold out the ground and store it away in a cupboard?), we can control money supply to suit economic factors both ways (not just when we're growing too fast like gold would, because lets face it, booms and busts would still happen - tulips etc), it increases efficiencies in the economy and is proven.

[JBmurc]

---GOLD 1232-----
Imagine if there was no gold at Fort Knox. Imagine if it hasn't been there for the last 50 years! One things for sure, we're still alive! Money does not need to be backed by gold.

-Well for one it would put a rocket under the price of Gold
-No your right MONEY does not need to be backed by gold it quite frankly couldn't be as we the 21st century spend spend now pay 20-30yrs later
-Many western Governments are racking up billions in debt there is just no way many countries could afford to have same standard of living let alone a Quality gold backed currencies UNLESS they already hold penalty -China the worlds biggest gold producer exports little gold


What would exist instead of the Federal Reserve, JB? In that case, what would exist instead of all central banks around the world?

-the FED reserve is a private bank owned by many very wealthy worldwide banking interests that much like the Fort knox gold holdings don't allow any audits over the many decades they have be operating for the benefit of the people --Yeah right
now I don't know about you but I think this is wrong esp as the FED has controlling interests worldwide
-who owns the fed reserve???
http://www.google.co.nz/url?q=http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php%3Fcontext%3Dva%26aid%3D10489&sa=U&ei=ptN0TNyACemvnwea7OQG&ved=0CBYQFjAA&usg=AFQjCNHupRr0_uBaLtGxsFxYirBoO3rIng

SOME HISTORY ON THE DOLLAR


Throughout the history of the world, there have always been strong currencies, usually held by the economic powerhouses of the day. Theses currencies were primarily called Reserve Currencies. The Pound Sterling was the primary reserve currency for much of the world in the 18th and 19th centuries. But perpetual account and fiscal deficits, financed by cheap credit and unsustainable monetary and fiscal policies used to finance wars and colonial ambitions eventually led to the pound sinking (sound familiar?).

Post World-War II, the US dollar took over the sterling’s dominant position and became the world’s newest reserve currency. The Bretton Woods Accord, the first major economic transformation toward the end of World War II, established the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and a way to value the various currencies of the world relative to each other. All foreign currencies would trade in relationship to the US Dollar and only the US dollar (as the reserve currency) would be tied to a gold standard (meaning the value of dollars circulating must be backed by gold reserves).

The gold standard caused major problems in the 1960’s when France (under the London Gold Pool) called America’s bluff and demanded gold for payment of debt, rather than US dollars (they understood that we were printing more money, to finance the Vietnam conflict and fund new social programs, than we had available in gold reserves).

Due to the rapid loss of US gold reserves, President Nixon had no choice but to abolish the Bretton Woods accord in August of 1971 and he took the US dollar off the gold standard (it was $35 per ounce then; today it is > $900).

This Nixon shock of August 1971 caused a swift devaluation of the US dollar (gold doubled in price by 1972) and numerous efforts followed (by U.S. leadership) to develop a new system of international monetary management. They felt they must find another way, as currencies around the world were in turmoil and were now floating among one another…

The year 1974 provided the much needed answer. In June of 1974, Secretary of State Henry Kissinger established the US-Saudi Arabian Joint Commission on Economic Cooperation. One of the major components of this commission stated that OPEC would officially agree to sell its oil only for dollars—meaning any country purchasing oil from OPEC had to pay in U.S. dollars. This agreement enormously increased the demand for the floating dollar, as oil importing countries now had to earn or borrow dollars to pay for their oil.

OPEC oil countries were soon overflowing with petrodollars and most of them ended up recycled through accounts in London and New York banks.

Bottom Line: this 1974 act reestablished the dollar as the global monetary instrument and oil now replaced gold as basis for a strong dollar. Countries competed for dollars and they accumulated huge dollar reserves to sustain their own currencies.

[Huang Chung]

Have you maxed out your credit card?
Bought shares with borrowed money?
Taken out a large home loan, believing prices always go up?.....


If you've got a spare 40 min, watch this ABC 4 Corners program called 'overdose' that aired in Oz on Monday night.....

http://www.abc.net.au/iview/#/view/625008

[JBmurc]

Gold demand link -Gold backed ETF grew 414% 2nd Qtr 09 to 2nd Qtr 10

http://au.ibtimes.com/articles/46015/20100825/india-china-help-q2-gold-demand-reach-1050mtn.htm

[JBmurc]

Have you maxed out your credit card?
Bought shares with borrowed money?
Taken out a large home loan, believing prices always go up?.....


If you've got a spare 40 min, watch this ABC 4 Corners program called 'overdose' that aired in Oz on Monday night.....

http://www.abc.net.au/iview/#/view/625008

No can watch for us kiwis

[Huang Chung]

That's a shame JB...teriffic film.

Here's a link that might whet your appitite.

http://www.journeyman.tv/60895/documentaries/

[Huang Chung]

Imagine if there was no gold at Fort Knox. Imagine if it hasn't been there for the last 50 years!

Imagine if you were one of the guards...spent a lifetime, guarding NOTHING!!

[JBmurc]

Gold $1240oz USD-- $1404oz AUD also I see Gold price in the yen is up alittle over 3% for the last 2 days

T/A wise
From an important technical perspective, December gold futures prices closed nearer the session high again Wednesday as the bulls have gained fresh upside near-term technical momentum. Gold market bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next near-term upside technical objective is to produce a close above solid chart resistance at $1,250.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at this week's low of $1,211.70. First resistance is seen at Wednesday's high of $1,243.40 and then at $1,250.00. Support is seen at Wednesday's low of $1,230.90 and then at $1,223.50.

[Skol]

JB,
If Fort Knox was empty why would that 'put a rocket' under the gold price.
No one know how much is there, who cares? You'd have to assume it's empty and even if it wasn't and there was $173 billion worth of gold in there as alleged that amount is fairly minor when the US GDP is $14.6 trillion.

[JBmurc]

JB,
If Fort Knox was empty why would that 'put a rocket' under the gold price.
No one know how much is there, who cares? You'd have to assume it's empty and even if it wasn't and there was $173 billion worth of gold in there as alleged that amount is fairly minor when the US GDP is $14.6 trillion.
man you don't have clue do you---
-Well its two fold number one the world currency is the USD so if the so called world reserve currency has been lying to the rest of the world their Dollar would soon be the new pesto

-number two less gold available for the likes of the debt riddled USA -means even less large investors would want to buy into the USD treasury notes/bonds etc also not good for the USD remember the chinese they guys that hold hundreds of billions of USD debt you think their going be happy campers when they lose face to the world

Add in the facts of the USD being the dollar used in the massive paper shorts ,how can you short something you don't even hold much of??

the then massive swing of confidence that would back currencies that do have independent audits an in time a rise of a new world reserve currency.

[Skol]

Get off it JB, if there's $173 bil in Fort Knox, that wouldn't even pay 1/4 of the US military budget for 2010.
In the big picture it's chicken feed, same as the 1054 tons the Chinese have.
Only goldbugs care about that trivia, like the fictional secret gold the Japanese army hid in the Phillipines, LOL

I've seen the gold price on the way up, what is it, head and shoulders or double top?

[JBmurc]

Get off it JB, if there's $173 bil in Fort Knox, that wouldn't even pay 1/4 of the US military budget for 2010.
In the big picture it's chicken feed, same as the 1054 tons the Chinese have.

I've seen the gold price on the way up, what is it, head and shoulders or double top?

Yes gold is very rare, to the flood of paper dollars we used to think billions was a lot now trillions how many years to quad-trillions zillions?? isn't going make Gold or any needed resources any cheaper think you should get a large print of the chart of the price of gold 1963-2010 I posted here a couple times an stick it above your T.V skol maybe after looking at that for the rest of the year you might see it's been in one large bull trend 1250 will be smashed before the years out a new high will be set a top will form a pull back will happen but the trend will continue along with inflation an the fiat currencies of the world will continue their devalue plan as the governments want to devaluing their debts

[elZorro]

Skol, how is it that the Dow was crashing below the 10,000 barrier last night but recovered in the last 2 hours of trading? Not a jack-up at all is it? Looks like a flight to gold to me, going on behind all the smoke and mirrors.

[Skol]

Skol, how is it that the Dow was crashing below the 10,000 barrier last night but recovered in the last 2 hours of trading? Not a jack-up at all is it? Looks like a flight to gold to me, going on behind all the smoke and mirrors.

What jack-up and smoke and mirrors?

[JBmurc]

Another great interview on CNBC aways good to here from the more independent asian analyst
what he finished with "they have to stop printing so much easy money we may not have inflaton right now but by 2012 it will be much worse"---"they have been doing it for 20yrs do they never learn"!!!

[elZorro]

What jack-up and smoke and mirrors?

Er, I did some forensic research on this goldbugs site (http://silver-and-gold-prices.goldprice.org/) and it must be correct, it's on the Internet..



Y'all have never seen a market any phonier than today's Dow. Until 2:30 it remained deep in the red, falling as low as 9,938. But wait! Are those the hooves of the Nice Government Men's cavalry I hear in the distance? What remained down all day suddenly moved to unchanged, and even rose 19.61 for a Dow close at 10,060.06. Whew! At least it didn't close below 10,000. Good save, Nice Government Men, but a tadge corny -- and obvious. S&P 500 closed up 3.46 at 1,055.33. My view is that stocks are beginning a third wave down that will shave off another 15% from here. Stay away from stocks.



Fair enough, a more objective link (http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=528edfb2-9536-483b-b8a0-9a053b6d0e77), which also says gold/silver will go up.

[JBmurc]

Here comes 1250 .....toot toot...LOL 1243 the buying strength taking it's toll on the shorters -JP Morgan + Bank of American make up over 50%+ of all silver shorts in place an have been for some time , another AIG here we come bail out time from the FED

[Skol]

EZ,
I see you've ended up in the manipulation camp, and here's me thinking that engineers were practical people, not inclined to involve themselves in fantasies like JB's JP Morgan conspiracy theory.
JB, what happened to the Greek collapse, the Euro implosion, the oil leak, bank crashes and all the other catastrophes that were the justification for purchasing the yellow dirt? They amounted to zilch and the best that the goldbugs can invent now is "hyperinflation in 2012".
I'm in the USA at the moment and looking around here everything seems to be proceeding quite normally and it's business as usual, in fact better than usual
If you pile all those silver ingots on top of each other and drill a hole through them they'll make a great anchor. LOL

The only type of inflation likely is food inflation JB, go to any US based finance website and get a quote for 'COW', check the chart. You might be able to palm your silver off for a couple of herefords which are far more useful and much more liquid.

[JBmurc]

I look at a mass of facts an make my decison on them ----Now if you don't believe there's any manipulation in the markets thats good for you--I wish there wasn't

Michael Gorham, director of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission , resigned from the CFTC 3 weeks after writing the letter.

http://www.cftc.gov/files/opa/press04/opasilverletter.pdf

[elZorro]

JB, that letter doesn't help your case much, quite the opposite. A long term suppression of silver prices couldn't happen without a good reason. In this case, plenty of old silver lying about, and people happy to sell it at the current price. I have no doubt that shorter term manipulation happens though. Really interesting article.

Skol, I just had a guy ringing up from the States wanting to sell me components, because their homeland manufacturing is quiet. Too much competition from China etc. On the other hand, I was in a workshop here in NZ the other day, and they were preparing a large chassis the size of a car to be airfreighted, as sea transport would be too slow for the customer. Western wage economies need to be making niche products.

[JBmurc]

this letter admits the existence of fraud and manipulation in the silver futures market!

How so? They admit that no manipulation to the downside could exist as long as investors have "unrestricted access" to buy silver, but they admit that there are position limits that prevent that from taking place!

On p. 5, they write:

"Because there is unrestricted access to the market, many knowledgeable and well-capitalized traders would readily buy any silver offered at artificially low prices. The buying by these traders--buying that the alleged manipulators would have no way of preventing--would quickly cause the price to rise to its appropriate level."

However, on p. 8, they contradict that by stating:

"The Commission's guidance on speculative position limits focuses primarily on the spot month because, in our experience, physical delivery futures markets, such as silver, are most susceptible to threats of manipulation during the spot month."

In other words, they admit on page 8 that limits exist that prevent large investors from buying silver as they suggest they could do on page 5!

In other words, they are so twisted, that they believe it is a manipulation to buy physical silver!

[Skol]

There you are JB, Ben Bernanke's got everything under control, you can unload the silver and stop worrying.



US stocks soared today as nervous investors were reassured by Ben Bernanke’s vow to do whatever it takes to revive the shaky economy.
Mr Bernanke's comments provided few surprises but reassured Wall Street that the central bank will act if "unexpected developments" cause the recovery to falter.

His words were somewhat soothing to investors during a week packed with disappointing economic data, which was capped today with another sluggish reading on second-quarter growth and a third-quarter revenue warning from technology bellwether Intel.

"We are being told that our central bank is going to do everything in its power, including taking extraordinary measures if necessary," said Walter Gerasimowicz, chief investment officer of Meditron Asset Management.

He said investors were heartened by indications that "inflation doesn't seem to be a risk at this point and at this stage, the probability of additional disinflation appears to be low".

[Huang Chung]

Gerald Celente features in 'Overdose'.

http://www.trendsresearch.com/

[brettdale]

I was going to invest in IRN years ago, but never did.

[elZorro]

There you are JB, Ben Bernanke's got everything under control, you can unload the silver and stop worrying.



US stocks soared today as nervous investors were reassured by Ben Bernanke’s vow to do whatever it takes to revive the shaky economy.
Mr Bernanke's comments provided few surprises but reassured Wall Street that the central bank will act if "unexpected developments" cause the recovery to falter.

His words were somewhat soothing to investors during a week packed with disappointing economic data, which was capped today with another sluggish reading on second-quarter growth and a third-quarter revenue warning from technology bellwether Intel.

"We are being told that our central bank is going to do everything in its power, including taking extraordinary measures if necessary," said Walter Gerasimowicz, chief investment officer of Meditron Asset Management.

He said investors were heartened by indications that "inflation doesn't seem to be a risk at this point and at this stage, the probability of additional disinflation appears to be low".

Skol, from your tone I can tell you don't really think everything's under control. Many commentators predicted all this - the FED won't let things collapse and would rather the situation proceed to inflation, to remove the debt mountain. If another bout of money printing helps kick the massive but slumbering US economy along, maybe all will be OK. But it looks like the first time the training wheels were taken off, the bike started to tip over.

The news didn't have a downwards impact on gold, perhaps next week we'll see an effect.

Std stocks vs gold stocks graph, last few months, plus a history lesson. (http://www.gold-prices.biz/uncle-scam/#more-1986)

[JBmurc]

There you are JB, Ben Bernanke's got everything under control, you can unload the silver and stop worrying.

-Yeah right- what ben brokeayank says an does has been the reason why there in such a mess the Q.E will continue as will the failing of the US economy the debt bubble grows bigger.........
---Things only get better if we spend more-----Yeah right

-Will be looking to take some profits out of the market next month ,will for sure buy more bullion

[Huang Chung]

Ron Paul audio

http://www.kitco.com/KitcoNewsVideo/kitco_news.htm

[Skol]

Another great interview on CNBC aways good to here from the more independent asian analyst

You like CNBC JB?
There's a video on CNBC that says "gold has had its run, buy stocks".

Looks like a double top to me, and you know what that means, should be a good day on the ASX (but not for gold).

[JBmurc]

You like CNBC JB?
There's a video on CNBC that says "gold has had its run, buy stocks".

Looks like a double top to me, and you know what that means, should be a good day on the ASX (but not for gold).

Well my shares will do well then ho-ray

[elZorro]

Here's a few charts about gold for the next few days, this analyst expecting resistance but not a double-top.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/maund/aug302010.html

And a carefully chosen video for Skol (http://www.bloomberg.com/video/62527614/), gold to improve..

[elZorro]

Telegraph for Skol STOP
Confirm shipment of gold bars 9999 fine STOP
ETA Yesterday as requested STOP
-----------------------------------------------

[Skol]

Hey EZ,
It went up $10 last night - toot, toot, all board for the future
train wreck.

[elZorro]

Hey EZ,
It went up $10 last night - toot, toot, all board for the future
train wreck.

Doesn't look like a train wreck yet, it's not $20 or$30 in a session. It's the US market that is the most bullish toward gold at the moment. It's a symptom of a bearish outlook on general stocks, some money looking for a safe haven in gold. Looks more like a sensible market response to me.

A goldbug site's comment for overnight trading:


Tuesday, August 31, 2010


Silver and Gold Prices are Performing Exactly as You Would Expect if They Intended to Burst Through Old Resistance


Gold Price (http://goldprice.org/spot-gold.html) Close Today : 1248.30
Change : 11.40 or 0.9%

Silver Price (http://silverprice.org/) Close Today : 19.382
Change : 0.372 cents or 2.0%

Platinum Price (http://platinumprice.org/) Close Today : 1528.00
Change : -2.00 or -0.1%

Palladium Price (http://palladiumprice.org/) Close Today : 505.00
Change : 6.00 or 1.2%

Gold Silver Ratio (http://goldprice.org/gold-silver-ratio.html) Today : 64.41
Change : -0.661 or -1.0%

Dow Industrial : 10,014.72
Change : 4.99 or 0.0%

US Dollar Index : 83.11
Change : -0.028 or 0.0%

Today's tale is soon told: stocks wallowed, dollar equivocated, SILVER and GOLD PRICES soared like eagles above the mundane worries and cares of this sublunary globe.

SILVER and GOLD PRICES must have heard my warning yesterday and heeded it, because both took to their heels today. The SILVER PRICE (http://silverprice.org/) added 37.2c to reach 1938.2c at Comex close, gold added $11.40 to end at $1,248.30. Today's close brings silver, sweet silver, back to the top of the range we have been fighting since May, no, since 2008. Now, now, silver dig in the spurs and ply the whip and race ahead!

The GOLD PRICE also finds itself smack against resistance at $1,250, really the last high close, $1,255. Oh, what fireworks, what pyrotechnics, what groaning of croakers and doubters who have been predicting gold's demise when gold smashes through that $1,255 mark!

Be still, my beating heart, and look at the other hand. If silver and gold were going to fail, this would be the place. Always must bear in mind that nothing is a given with markets until after it happens. Yet in answer I must add that silver and gold prices are performing exactly as you would expect if they intended to burst through old resistance.

If silver and gold prices close through that resistance tomorrow, close your eyes and buy all you can stand. (This is a bit obvious, he's selling it- EZ).

US Dollar index continues to refuse to commit itself to any direction. Oh, choppy, choppy was today's action. It did come up off that double bottom from Thursday and Friday at 82.65, and climbed (clomb? Clamb?) as high as 83.342. Alas, the dollar's nose then began bleeding, and it pursued a zig-zag course down to 82.877. Now it's trading at 83.106, down only 2.8 basis points from yesterday, so y'all can see it recovered at least that much. Dollar is headed higher, but faces a tremendous headwind.

Now why would investors be so prejudiced against the Almighty Dollar? Maybe they don't speak Bernankese, either.

STOCKS painted about as miserable a picture today as one might long to see. Dow began the day by plunging 70 points, then climbed above unchanged about 11:00 a.m. fought back and forth toward 10,076, up about 65 points, then collapsed as the day threatened to close at 2:30, but Whoops! Looky there! It close up 4.99 points at 10,014.72. S&P followed suit, up 0.41 to 1,049.33. This is pitiful. Perhaps it will satisfy the hoi polloi who listen once a day and know only that stocks rose or fell, but look at the inward performance, and you must despair of stocks. Stay out of stocks.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com (http://the-moneychanger.com/)



A fairly objective article here, same result. Doesn't look like there's much risk on a gold punt at the moment.

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=d99bcf52-547c-4dec-a011-e98bdd6a9831

Me old mate Charles Wyatt has this to say about gold today: makes a lot of sense doesn't it?



Minesite Weekly Roundup 23rd – 31st August 2010

So (http://www.so/) it's back to gold this week again. Not because its price has done anything startling, but because the World Gold Council now seems to be coming round to our belief that demand from India and China is taking over from interest rates and the dollar as key to its future. This may make economists splutter in their morning coffee and a nod should be given to their views in passing. Sure, there will be some sellers of gold if and when interest rates rise as they will want a return on their money, but many investors have learned a salutary lesson from the global financial crisis and from the ongoing economic confusion throughout the Western World.

From now on they will retain a proportion of their capital in, or close to gold. Back in the 1960s any well balanced, and not specialist portfolio, had at least 5 per cent of its value in gold or gold producers as the lessons of the 2nd World War were not far away. Call it 'funk money' if you like, as does Martin Wolf the chief economic correspondent of the Financial Times, but it is also a prudent measure as we are in uncharted waters. The geopolitical axis of the world is turning ever faster from west to east and the democratic economies of the west now depend on a steady communist hand on the tiller in the east.

What the World Gold Council has said in its Gold Demand Trends report for the second quarter of this year is that demand for gold will remain robust during 2010 as a result of accelerating demand from India and China, as well as increasing global investment demand driven by continuing uncertainty over public debt and economic recovery. Exactly what Minesite has been saying for some time, so nothing earth shattering about that.

The World Gold Council goes on to say that demand for gold in China is also expected to grow considerably over the longer-term. A report recently published by The People's Bank of China and five other organisations to foster the development of the domestic gold market will add impetus to the growth in gold ownership among Chinese consumers. In this context it is interesting to take a look at some figures comparing per capital annual consumption of gold in India and China with that of Vietnam.

Vietnam devalued its currency yet again last week in an attempt to boost exports and shore up its deficit. As a result "the Vietnamese public will continue to conserve and protect their assets by hoarding gold tael bars," said Albert Cheng, managing director for the Far East at the World Gold Council. He went on to explain that Vietnam's gold offtake last year was 73.3 tonnes, with per capita consumption of 0.8544 grammes and average income of US$2,900.

Compare that with India, the world's biggest gold user, which took 578.5 tonnes, or 0.4874 gram per head, and had average income of US$3,100. China's figures were 457.8 tonnes, 0.3418 gram, and US$6,600, Cheng wrote. From that we can deduce that Vietnam, where the average income is the lowest of the three, has the highest annual consumption per head of gold. The sums may be twisted slightly by its series of devaluations, but the message is clear. The Vietnamese people, still under Communist rule, have managed to achieve an amazing recovery since the war, but they still choose to save a proportion of their income - 0.85 grammes of gold is worth just over £25 - in the form of gold.

You can do as many sums as you like based on these statistics, but the basic answer will always be the same. The annual offtake from these countries is already approaching half of the world's gold production which peaked back in 2001 and this trend will continue. In the East the basic instinct is to save money: in the West to spend it. We will be learning a lot from the East in the coming years and the sooner economists learn to give respect to gold for its role as the 'canary in the mine' when inflation and currencies get out of kilter, the less mistakes they will make. Just for a start they might like to take a look at the sharp rise in the price of gold in 2007 ahead of the global financial crisis.

By Charles Wyatt


It's not the absolute value of each investment that matters, it's how many investments there are. You cannot argue with these numbers.

In fact, here are the changing gold production figures (http://www.goldsheetlinks.com/production.htm)for world goldmining. The annual production has dropped back since 2001, but it peaked there as new mining equipment made the work easier. Staggeringly, China has emerged as the no.1 miner of gold in 2008 (annual world production was 2356 tonne). No latest figures, sorry. I have noted that China has been buying or making the large scale extraction equipment needed to get to this point. In this field, as in so many others, China is excelling.

The total mined ore was only twice that annually purchased in India, China and Vietnam. More came from those wasteful bank vaults and recycled jewelry from shopping malls, but in view of the low annual average income of these countries, not a lot is left for the Western world population.

[elZorro]

As we wait to see what happens on the NYSE overnight, gold is sitting near its recent all-time high in dollar terms.

Is it poised for a breakout? (http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article22364.html). Maybe not to $3,000, but the world economy looks messy all right. That bit about Chinese manufacturing taking over from the West - some importers make money from the situation, but most in the higher-waged countries lose.

There are many very good value, well made products from China and surrounds that deserve to be used worldwide. But I do despair when I see some products made in the millions of units, tasked with doing a simple job that is not new. These manufactured goods are then shipped halfway across the world, put on shelves with a markup, later discounted back to cost almost, and sold to the public. The public finds the goods break quickly, or worse, cannot even do the job they were intended for, not for a second. The goods and all the energy and material they have consumed are thrown into the waste stream. What a waste of human endeavour.

So is the writer of the above article correct? Is the USA (and other western economies) lacking in any real manufacturing guts, is that the problem?

WSJ article, maybe a breakout in gold, silver and ETFs. (http://blogs.marketwatch.com/etfblog/2010/09/01/are-gold-silver-and-miner-etfs-on-the-verge-of-breaking-out/)

[JBmurc]

As we wait to see what happens on the NYSE overnight, gold is sitting near its recent all-time high in dollar terms.

Is it poised for a breakout? (http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article22364.html). Maybe not to $3,000, but the world economy looks messy all right.

looks likely to make a new all time high next week 1260-70 ----1300 not all the far away

[peat]

Maybe not to $3,000...

yahoo quoted gold at 3,500 for a few seconds overnite heheh

Some speculate error was secret signal to indicate where precious metal is really heading ;)
http://www.prisonplanet.com/investors-spooked-as-glitch-sends-gold-to-3400.html

[elZorro]

Hi Peat, wishful thinking, just a typo (a big one) by yahoo..
JB, bet that silver pile looks fairly clever right now.

I have just found this page of data about gold. (http://www.kitco.com/charts/CPM_charts.html) It answers all those tricky questions Skol drags up just when we're getting optimistic :eek2:
1) goldmining production is dropping back
2) ETF funds have some increasing gold hoards, but not a great deal in total yet.
3) The extra demand each year has been already increasingly coming from melting down of jewellry and other secondary reintroductions of gold to the market.
4) For eight years or more, there has been solid demand for gold, leading to price increases, a very long positive run.
5) Market jitters have led to reduced demand for gold jewellry worldwide, but use in electronics has increased.

I can only assume from all this that there is a net increase in gold contained in vaults.

[JBmurc]

yep just got 2kg .999 silver bar turn up the other day got it off Trademe for an absolute steal(what drop kick would think we are in a bubble when trademe's 2mill members allow me to buy under spot LOL) at just under $25per oz current NZ silver spot $27.50 unlike Gold that had a brief pull back Silver just took a quick breath an keeped going up only 15c from $20oz USD ---I can't find any silver bullion bargains today
both my Silver an Gold shares looking much more bullish depth wise -SVL.ARD.NAV have an average growth round 50% so far on purchase prices with so much more to come....

looking forward to the new year celebrations thanks to SKOL kindness not long to go now

---

[elZorro]

I noticed that JB, which is the correction silver buffs are looking for, a restoration of the value of silver relative to gold. Here's the Kitco page (http://www.kitco.com/charts/CPM_silver.html)on silver, showing that demand for silver has returned to be strongly positive, after being in the doldrums. Production has increased, but so has use in hedge funds.

[Skol]

JB,
Are you sure you haven't paid too much?
Just had a look at TradeMe silver and nothing's selling.

When the bell rings it's going down a lot faster than it's been going up.

Do they teach punctuation in Queenstown?

NAV-bullish? Are we looking at the same stock exchange?

[JBmurc]

I noticed that JB, which is the correction silver buffs are looking for, a restoration of the value of silver relative to gold. Here's the Kitco page (http://www.kitco.com/charts/CPM_silver.html)on silver, showing that demand for silver has returned to be strongly positive, after being in the doldrums. Production has increased, but so has use in hedge funds.

yeah funny the numbers kitco give are different to the Silver institute an many others are different yet again what they all show is mine production is many million of oz less than demand
when you add in the fact Silver mineralisation decreases at depth an the fact 90% of the worlds believed minable silver mineralisation has been dug up an used up.
the price ratio of Gold to silver should well head to much lower numbers 15 or less rather than the crazy 60+ add in a higher GOLD price a--------$100oz silver price is only a matter of time an IMHO will be breached this decade

[Skol]

JB,
If you bought silver in 1919, you would have attained the phenomenal rate of 3% return.(No dividends of course). However it's done better in the last 10 years, so 1919 to 1999 is less than 2%.
So you might say silver is due for a big correction, historically should be worth around $8.
Better than gold though which has been around 1% return since 1900.
You'd have been much better off with a selection of stocks which pretty much matched the DJIA.

Historically, gold should be about $650, silver about $8, so a 50% correction for both would be in order.

Maybe history's got it all wrong JB and we're in a 'new paradigm', like 1987 or NASDAQ 2000.

[peat]

JB,
If you bought silver in 1919, you would ... quite likely be dead by now :p

[JBmurc]

Historically, gold should be about $650, silver about $8, so a 50% correction for both would be in order.

so you really think Gold & silver will retrace to these above levels LOL an when do think this will happen end of last year you were calling for a massive fall of GOLD from the bubble $1090 levels for this year.....
there is a massive bubble out there it's called the Debt bubble next year we will see it come back in to stir things up

[Skol]

Historically, gold should be about $650, silver about $8, so a 50% correction for both would be in order.

so you really think Gold & silver will retrace to these above levels LOL an when do think this will happen end of last year you were calling for a massive fall of GOLD from the bubble $1090 levels for this year.....
there is a massive bubble out there it's called the Debt bubble next year we will see it come back in to stir things up

Why not?
Bubbles don't need reason, they just need lots of gutsy punters to front up with cash.
In 1980 silver retraced 77% and gold 65%, so 50% isn't out of the question.

[elZorro]

But we're 30 years on from the 1980s Skol, and the momentum behind gold has been building for several years. A mild pullback is possible (http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20100903DeC.html), but won't effect miners much.
Goldminers are very bullish (http://www.watoday.com.au/business/after-10-good-years-gold-has-not-lost-its-lustre-20100905-14vzt.html)at the moment, if that's any indication.

George Soros thinks gold is going to be a massive asset bubble (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10670964)too, but the difference is that he sees investment leading up to it as simply being rational.

[JBmurc]

JB,
Are you sure you haven't paid too much?
Just had a look at TradeMe silver and nothing's selling.

When the bell rings it's going down a lot faster than it's been going up.

Do they teach punctuation in Queenstown?

NAV-bullish? Are we looking at the same stock exchange?

Depth wise NAV is looking good early last week there was much selling depth at 17c -20c friday that had now shrunk to round a third of what it was as well as the SP going from 16c-17c volume was also up soaking up much of the sellers wanting out--like I said SKOL- NAV will make make me min 100% return for a year hold, I'm over half way there now so very confident on operation reports NAV is on track to make a good profits for the year

-So Trademe Silver bullion isn't selling well just shows how unloved Silver bullion is as an investment unlike those great financial companies how many millions will us NZ tax payers be forced to pay to the many investors chasing the yield --reminds me of some of my first posts on ST back in 03 about trying to find major Silver bullion sellers here one guy I was put onto thought I was mad trying to buy a ton of Silver back then at $7-8oz he stated Quite clearly -Silver would not go anywhere fast, whats the bet the guy was loaded up in Financial companies LOL because they pay a yield, An a precious metal mine production that for the last 20yrs hasn't got close to matching the higher demand will go no-where....I might not be the next buffet but my own share Investment company sure as hell out performed his % wise for the last financial year..

[JBmurc]

NAV up 20% today now what was that company you said would outperform NAV Skol

NAV march 2010 12.5c today 20.5c you where also saying how bad my NAV investment had been SKOL what's your share thats done better??

[upside_umop]

I'd say its more to do with the rare earths than gold, JB. What do you reckon?

Nice rise though...I've been watching NAV for a while and very tempted to buy some. Who says buying into a bubble is bad thing...as long as you get out before it pops eh?

[JBmurc]

I'd say its more to do with the rare earths than gold, JB. What do you reckon?

Nice rise though...I've been watching NAV for a while and very tempted to buy some. Who says buying into a bubble is bad thing...as long as you get out before it pops eh?

well it the biggest volume of shares traded so far today in NAV 5yr trading history some big major buying bringing out some good sized sellers just watch one seller come out at 19c with what he had left some 1.2mill shares which within mins was brought up in 200k-500k lots yeah the Rare earths is a factor but a small one IMHO the latest news was the BRR ann. on how the Gold production was all going to plan an the fact some of the mangerment are currently taking a well deserved hoilday now they have it up in running well.
remember NAV production target is 100,000oz of Gold production the EBIT 40mill+ from this alone would be worth alot more than their REO discovery total valued round 20mill of course this value could well head north on futher drilling

[Skol]

I'd say its more to do with the rare earths than gold, JB. What do you reckon?

Nice rise though...I've been watching NAV for a while and very tempted to buy some. Who says buying into a bubble is bad thing...as long as you get out before it pops eh?

I'd say you hit the nail on the head there UU. LYC up 16% today.

[JBmurc]

I'd say you hit the nail on the head there UU. LYC up 16% today.

yes the cummins range is a great assets still NAV is a Gold producer If NAV was offered the right price 20mill say I'm sure that most likely sell it otherwise why state they would be looking to any interests on the asset in recent reports
So did you buy a few Skol

[Skol]

So did you buy a few Skol

No way, I've got more respect for my hard earned tax paid dollars.

[JBmurc]

No way, I've got more respect for my hard earned tax paid dollars.

yeah a respect to buy me a $100 bottle of Veuve I can toast to my fallow NAV shareholders LOL

[upside_umop]

Yeah, and NTU is up 44% for the day too.

NAV does look attractive, given how highly leveraged it is to the price of gold. Reserves are expanding, but mainly due to them becoming economical due to price of gold increasing...

I didn't pull the trigger today on NAV, did on a couple of other things.

[JBmurc]

Yeah, and NTU is up 44% for the day too.

NAV does look attractive, given how highly leveraged it is to the price of gold. Reserves are expanding, but mainly due to them becoming economical due to price of gold increasing...

I didn't pull the trigger today on NAV, did on a couple of other things.

yes has been some very good gains today my ARDO went up 34.6% if it wasn't for the drop in my PENOA I'd a made a tidy __,___ profit for the day :(
still can't complain more days like this will soon see me debt free

[elZorro]

No way, I've got more respect for my hard earned tax paid dollars.

I just had a look at DOW, PRY for the last 6 months against OGC, not a pretty picture Skol, although with any share a bit of good timing and TA helps. In my case, I need a share that spends most of the time positive to have any shot at a profit. OGC-NAV, over 6 months JB wins with the recent uptick. Not so hot over a few more months backwards though..hmmm.

[elZorro]

The first sign of any doubt with Euro banks and the Americans push gold up $10 on opening to 1257. Large investments continuing to be made in goldmining shares. If there's any more bad news this week, we should see gold at a new high. These are mostly steady changes, not panic moves, but there is a lot of momentum behind them.

http://www.coinlinkbullion.com/?p=1837

[JBmurc]

Obama an his mates are once again planning 50bill highway upgrades , he spent 3 trillion in his first term straight to debt -

-----------------Brokeyankie----------
---What Banks got the 500,000,000,000 bailout from Tax payer funds???!--Senator

"I DON'T KNOW"??---Bernanke FED Chairman



GOLD ENTERING A VIRTUOUS CIRCLE
http://goldswitzerland.com/index.php/gold-entering-a-virtuous-circle-egonvongreyerz/

[Jess9]

Gold over that 1250 hurdle today.

[peat]

Gold over that 1250 hurdle today.
yup sold some silver for 19.99

[JBmurc]

yup sold some silver for 19.99

Warrant - Future ?? be a nice short term profit

[peat]

on my forex platform JB, it was closing a trade though not a short
will buy it back again if it goes significantly lower....
still have a fair bit.

[JBmurc]

on my forex platform JB, it was closing a trade though not a short
will buy it back again if it goes significantly lower....
still have a fair bit.

Right have never had a go at Forex have with the others with bad outcomes I'm guess the cost etc much like futures CFD's warrants etc

[peat]

I'm guess the cost etc much like futures CFD's warrants etc
the spread is pretty low see pic there are no other costs.

[elZorro]

Skol, I hope the beer tastes tres better (http://www.skolinternational.com/index.html)than your predictionnes for les gold price (excuse my French). What will it be after tonight? Maybe another all-time closing high JB? The (champagne) bubble that never burst?

Sell general stocks, buy gold and gold stocks - seem to be safer bets.

[Skol]

A double top could still be on the cards it hasn't broken out yet, I'll be sticking with a variety of stocks, VBA which I bought a few days ago. Also TOL, SGP, AAC and as you know DOW.

This thread reminds me of the peak oil thread started by the perennially pessimistic tricha.
On that thread there were the plaintive cries "we're running out of oil", which of course, several years later hasn't happened. Now we're running out of gold apparently, but a recent check of the news shows several companies, especially in Canada reporting more gold finds.
There will be of course, because the price makes it worth while to find more.

The more news, the more the 'mums and dads' as they're politely known, will be piling in.

I just can't think of any possible reason to own it.

Gold's going up because gold's going up, that's why. The rest of it's pure fantasy. Too much Peter Schiff and all the Judgement day predictions that never happen.

That and all the conspiracy theories make for hilarious reading.

Hey JB, tell us the one about the Phillipine gold.

[elZorro]

A double top could still be on the cards it hasn't broken out yet, I'll be sticking with a variety of stocks, VBA which I bought a few days ago. Also TOL and as you know DOW.

This thread reminds me of the peak oil thread started by the perennially pessimistic tricha.
On that thread there were the plaintive cries "we're running out of oil", which of course, several years later hasn't happened. Now we're running out of gold apparently, but a recent check of the news shows several companies, especially in Canada reporting more gold finds.
There will be of course, because the price makes it worth while to find more.

The more news, the more the 'mums and dads' as they're politely known, will be piling in.

I just can't think of any possible reason to to own it.

Gold's going up because gold's going up, that's why. The rest of it's pure fantasy. Too much Peter Schiff and all the Judgement day predictions.

I think you've deliberately missed out some important details again Skol.

South Africa is no longer the biggest gold supplier - why? Not because of unrest, their mines are now too deep, the easy gold is gone.
Gold is likely to re-emerge as underpinning a currency, as sentiment towards it changes further, like it has for the last few years.
Very few "Mum&Dad" investors own investment gold or gold stocks in the West. Plenty of room for more.
Gold has always historically been compared to oil or goods like motor vehicles, and needs to be revalued to roughly hold its place against them, and a basket of currencies, not just the USD.
The Gold/Dow ratio long-term chart shows a repeating pattern of gold at least temporarily rebounding against stocks, and the latest process is still under way.

Skol, I see you've bought VBA (again). If it's such a good share, why can't you buy and hold it? I also humbly suggest that over the last two weeks or so, you'd have been better off with your DOW shares converted to cash and stored under the mattress..:cool:

[Skol]

I do trade a bit, some I buy and hold like TOL and DOW, big companies, top up from time to time.
It always makes me cringe when I see goldbugs saying nonsense, like 'gold is a safe investment' or some such , check with the 1980 gamblers and see if their dosh was safe .

Don't know how many years now the USD and American society is going to implode, but like peak oil it'll never happen.

I'll be honest with you though EZ, I haven't entirely ruled out gold shares.
In 1720, a banker bought some shares in the South Sea Company which he knew were in a bubble. He justified his purchase with the statement,

"When the rest of the world are mad we must imitate them in some measure."

[elZorro]

I do trade a bit, some I buy and hold like TOL and DOW, big companies, top up from time to time.
It always makes me cringe when I see goldbugs saying nonsense, like 'gold is a safe investment' or some such , check with the 1980 gamblers and see if their dosh was safe .

Don't know how many years now the USD and American society is going to implode, but like peak oil it'll never happen.

I'll be honest with you though EZ, I haven't entirely ruled out gold shares.
In 1720, a banker bought some shares in the South Sea Company which he knew were in a bubble. He justified his purchase with the statement,

"When the rest of the world are mad we must imitate them in some measure."

Sounds perfectly sensible to me, it would be a very bad thing for commerce and industry if gold sustained a rally against them. I don't expect to be able to buy the Dow with an ounce of gold in my lifetime.
But there is room to expect that most goldminers will be extremely profitable after many years of mothballed operations, where only the lowest cost producers had any chance of turning a profit.

If you are looking for gold shares, there are many performing even better than OGC, the only one I have any real knowledge of. OGC has a big plus, being a Kiwi employer, though :)

[whirly]

I picked up RSG at 1.03 on Tuesday. This out yesterday :

http://www.resolute-ltd.com.au/pdfs/356%20-%20080910%20-%20SyamaRecordProductionMonth.pdf


SYAMA RECORD PRODUCTION MONTH
Resolute Mining Limited is pleased to announce a record for monthly
production from its Syama Gold mine in Mali with 14,855 ounces produced
during August 2010.
The crushers and mills operated very steadily and satisfactorily with overall
throughput around 156,000 tonnes for the month, which is a significant
improvement on previous levels. The plant is treating direct leach ore and
throughput is slightly constrained in this mode.
Ore mined is currently from a higher grade section of the pit and this also
assisted gold production for the month.
The plant will continue to treat direct leach ore for another six weeks.
PETER SULLIVAN
Chief Executive Officer
ASX ANNOUNCEMENT 8 SEPTEMBER 2010

[elZorro]

Thanks Whirly, I had a quick look, another miner returning to better times, lots of interest being shown, big players climbing in, 11% increase yesterday, that beats OGC all right!
I dunno, might leave my cash in the bank for 5% p.a. (just joking). Cheers.

[whirly]

Yep, Whirlys luck has turned. I've had a disastrous trading year so hopefully this time I'm away.

[Skol]

Gold down overnight on better than expected economic news.
If gold crosses the 20 day MA this will confirm at least a short term double top but a double top can also mean intermediate, maybe long-term change from bullish to bearish.

[elZorro]

Gold down overnight on better than expected economic news.
If gold crosses the 20 day MA this will confirm at least a short term double top but a double top can also mean intermediate, maybe long-term change from bullish to bearish.

Better than expected: read: the slowdown isn't as quick or as bad as we thought it was? Today anyway.

I found this clip dated just before the $10 drop last night - Gold Forecaster.




Gold Price Drivers
The market awareness that the recovery is slowing and will likely keep doing so is being addressed even by President Obama in his election campaign. The country needs to feel that a recovery is really going to give them secure jobs and house prices are going to rise before economic momentum picks up again. And until that happens, the deceleration will continue until deflation is the problem. At the first sign that deflation is with us, we expect the Fed and the Administration to stimulate, at all costs. Evidence of deflation must be seen before U.S. Investors react.

The gold market is asking if gold is peaking. It’s a horrible feeling to think you bought at the top. It’s going to take something dramatic to take investor’s minds off that thought. Until then the big buyers are accepting offers at price limits only.

[elZorro]

Skol, while we've been arguing over the price of gold, this sort of thing has been happening - posted by Macduffy (http://www.mineweb.co.za/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=110973&sn=Detail&pid=102055).
Note OGC's gains dwarfed by many..

[elZorro]

Anybody's guess what will happen next week, depends on the economics data. Most are not expecting a big push past 1260, so don't expect too much from gold equities.

U.S. Economic Data To Drive Gold Price Direction Next Week
10 September 2010, 1:40 p.m.

By Debbie Carlson Of Kitco News
http://www.kitco.com/ (http://www.kitco.com/)

Chicago -- (Kitco News) A series of U.S. economic reports will help drive gold’s direction next week and could be a factor to whether the yellow metal tries to take out the nominal all-time highs or pulls back to test recent support.

Manufacturing data in the form of the Empire State Index and the Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s index and the producer and consumer price index reports, which measure inflation, will be released next week. After some recent better-than-expected economic news, like Thursday’s jobless claims, market watchers will be keen to see if this trend continues.

If the economic data turns out to be better than expected, gold prices might be capped for the time being, said Robin Bhar, senior metals analyst with Credit Agricole CIB.

Spot and Comex futures gold prices got above $1,260 an ounce this week because of renewed concerns about European debt, a Wall Street Journal story that said European bank stress tests were understated and a German banking association comment that suggested banks there needed more capital. Prices were unable to test the all time nominal highs around $1,266 and pulled back when U.S. economic news was better than expected. Further, volume in the markets slowed Thursday and Friday because of the start of the Jewish New Year, causing many market participants to take time off.

Whether prices retest the highs or pull back in part depends on the economic data, but also on the action of the U.S. dollar, Bhar said. The dollar has still played a bit of a safe-haven role when the markets quiver, but has sold off when economic news has turned positive as traders return to riskier assets.

Spencer Patton, founder of Steel Vine Investments, said he sees gold in a “topping process” in the intermediate term, especially since it was unable to take out the all-time highs. He believes the flight-to-safety rally gold enjoyed earlier this week was a bit overdone and prices could come back. “We’ve reached a peak for now. I could see gold in a sideways trend, but it shouldn’t fall beneath $1,200,” he said.

Gold received a bit of a bounce Friday after the International Monetary Fund said it sold 10 metric tons of gold to Bangladesh, which traders took as a positive sign that Asian central banks are willing to add to gold reserves.

Even so, Bhar said, he believes that for gold to test the nominal all-time highs, it will take a push by speculators to do so. Given that the yellow metal was only about $10 from that high, there might be interest in taking it out if momentum goes that way. However, he’s cautious about how gold might act after that event. “Every time we’ve made a new high, gold tends to lose $20 or $30. There are a lot of longs in the market who are ready to take profits,” he said.

Patton said while in the near term he thinks gold has plateaued, the market will likely rebound toward the end of the year as the factors that are keeping gold underpinned remain, such as European debt concerns and accommodative monetary policy. “Goldman Sachs is talking $1,300 by year’s end and that’s possible,” he said.

One market that might benefit from any gold strength is silver, which has rallied lately in an “also-ran” fashion. “If you like gold, you might buy silver. It’s cheaper compared to other metals and even if it pulls back you, won’t lose much,” he said.

Although he sees silver rising as a by-product of gold strength, that doesn’t mean he’s very bullish on the metal. He said the fact the fundamentals don’t support a rally – silver remains in surplus with producers ready to sell at higher prices – means he doesn’t see the gray metal going much past $20 an ounce. He added, though, if copper can rally on positive economic news, silver could get an extra bump up for the industrial component.
By Debbie Carlson of Kitco News;dcarlson@kitco.com

[JBmurc]

Gold forming a new base ready to set off again maybe on the mass negative of over leveraged US debts to be re-set again soon..time will tell

NAV booming ahead 23c
Good to see Oil kicking higher again just been loading up with AMU did you dislike them SKOL ? think they will fall like NAV not far from 100% profit from March

[elZorro]

Minesite Weekly Roundup 6th – 13th September 2010

It only takes one deal involving a well known acquisitor and the whole basis on which junior mining companies are valued can be transformed. Rob Davies, who writes a weekly column on Commodities for Minesite, seized on the price being offered by Goldcorp for Andean Resources as evidence that the game had changed.

Goldcorp looks like acquiring Andean Resources for US$3.5 billion, and, given that the resource base at Andean's Cerro Negro project amounts to a mere three million ounces of gold that works out at US$1,167/ ounce. That looks like a staggering price to pay when compared with 2009 when the average price paid for reserves was around US$150/oz and for global resources including reserves less than US$50/oz. But 2009 was a very tricky year as mergers and acquisitions came back to life slowly after the global financial surface. The trend has certainly been accelerating since the last quarter of that year, but even so US$1,167 looks very generous at a time when the price of gold is around US$1,250/oz.

OK, there are some 25 million ounces of silver in the resource mix, but it is gold that Goldcorp is after. Wayne Hubert, managing director of Andean, adopts the ultra cool approach saying that he expects resources to double so the price being paid is only US$583/oz, but even that is right at the top of the range of prices paid by 290 buyers of companies who have completed gold mergers and acquisitions so far this year.

As Rob went on to point out, if you add on US$100 per ounce to build the mine, and another US$60 for cash costs (net of a significant silver credit), you've still got change out of US$800 to for the production of each ounce of gold. The question investors will be debating is whether that is enough. Goldcorp is taking two big bets here. The first is clearly on the price of gold and here a fair amount of encouragement will be received from the way the market took the IMF's sale of 10 tonnes of gold to Bangladesh in its stride. The second is on the consistency of mineralization as geology can be a fickle friend, flattering only to deceive.

It is not going to be cheap to double those resources and Cerro Negro will not be a big producer when it does start in 2012 at 200,000 ozs. That is the key issue driving mining merger and acquisition and commodity prices. There simply isn't much new metal being found and that must be the key to the deal. What with politics, environmental considerations, lack of infrastructure and many other considerations maybe the big boys are panicking as to how they can maintain their production and resources in the years ahead.

"With this project you can add ounces year after year after year, and therefore, add value for your shareholders," said Chuck Jeannes, chief executive of Goldcorp. Yes, that would be the hope, but John Ing, an analyst at Maison Placements added a dose of cold reality when expressing doubts over the production date, noting that a feasibility study, exploration and more drilling were needed before construction could begin.

In the end all will be revealed, but in the meantime one can envisage hectic activity in the offices of exploration companies all over the world as they rejig data in an effort to bring their resource profiles into line with those apparently required by the big boys. And while all this is going on their chief executives will be away on a course entitled "Elevated Optimism" so that they can play their role to the full.

By Charles Wyatt

[Skol]

Gold forming a new base ready to set off again maybe on the mass negative of over leveraged US debts to be re-set again soon..time will tell

NAV booming ahead 23c
Good to see Oil kicking higher again just been loading up with AMU did you dislike them SKOL ? think they will fall like NAV not far from 100% profit from March

No thanks and no gold or silver.
Warren Buffett, who thinks gold is a waste of time says he's a "huge bull on this country" referring to the USA.
That probably means the appetite for risk will return and the so called 'safety' of gold which has always perplexed me, will diminish.
There's no mention of this colossal debt that you keep on about in the US papers JB, it's business as usual, when is this calamity going to occur?
I was reading an article the other day that said gold was a great investment, too much debt, too much money printing and there's going to be hyperinflation.
The date on the article was 2001. LOL

[ENP]

Man,

Leave this forum for about 3-4 months and JB and Skol are harping on about the same old stuff. Nothing has changed. Who won the bottle of wine?

[bung5]

No thanks and no gold or silver.
Warren Buffett, who thinks gold is a waste of time says he's a "huge bull on this country" referring to the USA.
That probably means the appetite for risk will return and the so called 'safety' of gold which has always perplexed me, will diminish.
There's no mention of this colossal debt that you keep on about in the US papers JB, it's business as usual, when is this calamity going to occur?
I was reading an article the other day that said gold was a great investment, too much debt, too much money printing and there's going to be hyperinflation.
The date on the article was 2001. LOL

I am with you on this one Skol . Gold will crash soon just like every other bubble

[Lego_Man]

The word "bubble" is probably the most overused word in finance/economics.

At least by armchair analysts.

[Skol]

Man,

Leave this forum for about 3-4 months and JB and Skol are harping on about the same old stuff. Nothing has changed. Who won the bottle of wine?

End of the year, gold will have to end below about $1100 for me to win, heaps of time, when it goes it won't go slowly.

[lissica]

I was reading an article the other day that said gold was a great investment, too much debt, too much money printing and there's going to be hyperinflation.
The date on the article was 2001. LOL

That would be right wouldn't it? What has US stocks/bonds done vs Gold in since 2001?

[buns]

Interesting bit from Fishers latest newsletter.

Q: What do you think of gold and why don’t you have any gold stocks in your Australian fund?

A:
We don’t have a strong view on gold, nor do we spend a
great deal of time researching gold and gold stocks. Gold is
a commodity and even though it periodically has bursts of popularity
leading to strong, uninterrupted price rises, the reverse can happen too,
and over time it behaves like any other commodity. We choose not to
invest in commodities because a commodity is just that – it has no moat
or differentiation. The business of a gold producer is to extract gold and
then sell it on a world market at whatever the prevailing price is. One
gold producer cannot get a higher price than another, or protect his
business from the vagaries of the global gold market. Compare a gold
producer with one of our preferred portfolio companies that produces
a differentiated, sought after, and essential product or service. Because
customers want the products or services of our companies, relatively
more than they want competing products or services, our companies
have pricing power. It is this pricing power which enables our companies to
grow their profits irrespective of the competitive or global environment.
Investing in gold mining companies is not for the faint-hearted because
their share prices may not necessarily reflect movements in the
underlying gold price. If you invest in the wrong stocks, you can lose
money even if the price of physical gold goes up.
Gold is proving popular right now because it is considered a good hedge
against inflation. However, we do not believe there is a real threat of
inflation, indeed we think that deflation is more likely to be of concern
if the economic recovery fails to pick up pace. We think that investors
should exercise caution around popular or faddish investments such as
gold. Rather than wanting to jump on board because the price is rising, a
prudent investor might be better to avoid popular

[elZorro]

With all due respect, Buns, that is a rubbish article. Fishers just stick to their knitting, and it's not gold stocks. That's the real reason for their bearish attitude to gold.

Gold is not just a commodity, far from it. Some miners can produce gold for say US$400 per ounce, others $1,000. So at the same market price, there are huge variations in profit. Some have few reserves, low grades, political volatility, lack of funding, few options to increase output or reserves.

And others have terrific options ahead of them. Do Fishers also think that a possible 4500% return in a year is not worth hunting down? How many dud picks would that fund? More importantly, on average, would gold stocks outperform standard stocks over the last year or two? Many analysts predict a period of deflation would be followed by severe inflation. Have a good look back through this thread and see what others have posted, there's a compelling argument to keep a good eye on gold prices and to look at some carefully selected gold stocks for the years ahead.

Here's a good article for more background (http://www.coinlinkbullion.com/?p=1845), plenty there I didn't know. I agree with all of it except for owning the physical gold. A trustworthy mining share should do better than the gold itself.

[elZorro]

Skol, what is your position on gold today? Are you sitting on the fence yet?
2903

[whirly]

RSG still running. My portfolio is green for the first time this year. :-)

[airedale]

No answer was the loud reply. Silence is golden:)

[elZorro]

No answer was the loud reply. Silence is golden:)

Actually I'm missing the frequent posts from Skol, Airdale. I was being fairly polite, the pictured dog is not an old dog, it's reasonably well behaved (though not a show dog like yours), and it has shown some agility in getting onto the fencepost. It's possibly dogmatic in its attitude, but that's not necessarily a bad thing..

Whirly, yes RSG looks good again. Unfortunately I bought the other day and stopped the rise upwards quite effectively until I was able to sell my shares at a loss. Then it took off, about an hour later. Just a small punt, still kicking myself.

[JBmurc]

The word "bubble" is probably the most overused word in finance/economics.

At least by armchair analysts.

Yeah I agree 100% so many love to throw round bubble ideas when 90% of the time the market is right an should be listened to instead of disdaned as a bubble Gold has just broke all time highs because the buyers want it more than the sellers want to sell will this turn round overnight an crash well going of most of the macro reasons it has moved up not likely unless most of the bad western monetary policy's of mass debt for unproductive growth over the last many years is reversed overnight not likely
If there was major bubble it's the debt bubble over any chance of a precious metal bubble

[JBmurc]

I was reading an article the other day that said gold was a great investment, too much debt, too much money printing and there's going to be hyperinflation.
The date on the article was 2001. LOL[/QUOTE]

well reading Gold articles skol good for you.......an what have the US done since then ?? but create more debt so much debt that if they continue the direction their going they will one day soon be finding it hard to even pay the interest on the debts they have created in mass by living beyond their means for far to many years

[Skol]

No I haven't jumped ship, I'm in the antipodes, the airline business is keeping me very busy.

It's interesting to note that one of the main websites in the USA today referred to the gold price as 'peer buying pressure'.

That's PC language for a bubble, but I might get on board myself yet because it may well have some way to go, but I'll have to work out exactly which route I'm going to take.

By the time the suckers get their ingots on to TradeMe it'll be all over.

[ENP]

I was reading an article the other day that said gold was a great investment, too much debt, too much money printing and there's going to be hyperinflation.
The date on the article was 2001. LOL

If there is hyper inflation why is the price of:

- oil
- gas
- other metals
- food
- stocks
- real estate

All going down?

[h2so4]

If there is hyper inflation why is the price of:

- oil
- gas
- other metals
- food
- stocks
- real estate

All going down?

Hyperinflation hasn't manifested yet but the indicators are there.

[upside_umop]

The word "bubble" is probably the most overused word in finance/economics.

At least by armchair analysts.

Bubbles can exist when information is imperfect.

Now, do you think that when all the China men buy gold, they have perfect information?

[JBmurc]

Did I here you say you might get on board some gold stocks -Skol -now I'm worried


AngloGold Ashanti Plans Share and Bond Sales to Help Terminate Gold Hedges
By Simon Casey - Sep 15, 2010 7:27 AM GMT+1000

AngloGold Ashanti Ltd., Africa’s biggest gold producer, plans to sell 15.8 million new shares and offer bonds that convert into the same number of American depositary receipts to fund an end to its gold hedges.

There will be over-allotment options to sell an additional 2.37 million shares and the same number of convertible bonds, the Johannesburg-based company said today in a statement. The company said it will use the proceeds along with cash on hand and credit facilities to “effectively eliminate its gold hedging position.�

The company’s ADRs, each representing one ordinary share, rose $2.13, or 4.8 percent, to close at $46.72 in New York trading before the bond and stock sales were announced.

AngloGold, in which hedge-fund firm Paulson & Co. holds a 12 percent stake, is among gold-mining companies reducing forward sales of the metal to take advantage of record prices. Producers cut hedges by about 780,000 ounces to 6.75 million ounces in the first quarter, research company GFMS Ltd. said in a June report.

Gold futures for December delivery rose to a record $1,276.50 an ounce on the Comex in New York today.

UBS AG, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup Inc. and Deutsche Bank AG are working for AngloGold on the sales.

To contact the reporter on this story: Simon Casey in London at scasey4@bloomberg.net.

[Lego_Man]

Bubbles can exist when information is imperfect.

Now, do you think that when all the China men buy gold, they have perfect information?

I think the Chinamen are just getting started...

[Skol]

If you want proof it's a bubble there's a headline on today's Stuff website:

'How to invest in gold'.

There were similar articles just before oil imploded from $147 to $32.

[Skol]

Just up on CNBC, will this be the straw that breaks the camel's back?

www.cnbc.com/id/39191506

[Huang Chung]

Did I here you say you might get on board some gold stocks -Skol -now I'm worried




Skol's interested in gold...

Well, we NOW probably have a bubble on our hands....

[peat]

Just up on CNBC, will this be the straw that breaks the camel's back?

www.cnbc.com/id/39191506 (http://www.cnbc.com/id/39191506)


i think you read it wrong skol :p

he said 'gold is the only bull market'

[Skol]

Here's something from todays Financial Times.
Gold will go up because it's in peoples minds, not much else, hardly a compelling argument.
It's as 'good as gold', gee I'll have to rush out and buy some.


Gold will keep its lustre with either inflation or deflation
By Jonathan Spall

Published: September 15 2010 17:29 | Last updated: September 15 2010 17:29

Over the past 10 years gold has increased five-fold and recently hit an all-time nominal high above $1,270 per ounce. There are many commentators confidently predicting further gains before the end of the year as well as a new inflation adjusted all-time high (estimated to be $2,250 in today’s money) in the next few years.

Part of the reason for gold’s price appreciation has been continued concern about rising inflation. More recently, however, talk of hyperinflation has given way to fears about the equally unpalatable threat of deflation. Despite these seemingly contradictory scenarios, the price of gold has continued to increase.
Gold does not protect against inflation or deflation per se but it is likely to do well in either scenario as it is a hedge against financial dislocation and uncertainty. Its historic tie with inflation is simply recognition of the fact that for much of the world’s economic history we have been struggling to tame rising prices rather than been confronted with the far more intractable problem of falling ones.

So, if the dilemma now confronting the world’s central bankers was as simple as a choice between inflation and deflation, then there is no doubt which option they would pick. They know they have the tools to beat inflation and even aggressive inflation as the experience of the 1980s illustrates.

The outcome they most fear is deflation. For this, they need look no further than Japan where the hike in interest rates at the start of the 1990s as they looked to deflate the asset price bubble led to the “lost decade” – the impact of which is still being felt today.

Indeed, the last time gold was in the middle of a prolonged rally was at the end of the 1970s with the global economy suffering under oil price shocks and the resultant inflation which culminated in gold hitting its then all-time nominal high of $850 in February 1980.

However, as the decade progressed, the Federal Reserve under the stewardship of Paul Volcker and the Bundesbank run by Karl Otto Pöhl were viewed as institutions determined to combat inflation while guiding global monetary policy and growth. By the end of the 1990s, the credibility of monetary authorities had perhaps never been higher and consequently the perceived attributes of gold were seen as irrelevant – leading the metal to slump to $250.

Gold’s recent performance is partly due to low interest rates, which clearly enhance the attractiveness of all investments, but more pertinently to a feeling that central banks are no longer the masters of their own destiny as they were once perceived to be. The further uncertainties engendered by continuing questions over the validity of sovereign and municipal debt, and consequent concerns over currencies, are only adding to the unease.

In a sense, the notions of inflation or deflation are redundant and it is simply that gold is seen as being effective in times of stress to the financial system.

While it should be no great surprise that a hedge against financial uncertainty can rise in the current environment there remains the question of why it should be gold and not some other metal or commodity.

The fundamentals of gold are hardly compelling. There are few end uses for the metal and much of what has ever been mined remains in above-ground stocks, which are being added to each year and currently stand at some 165,000 tonnes, with a little less than 20 per cent sitting in the vaults of the world’s central banks.

Indeed platinum, presently trading at a $300 premium per ounce to gold, where there are no known large stockpiles and which is “consumed” in the industrial process might seem a more natural candidate, particularly as platinum’s annual production is only 7.5 per cent of that of gold.

Instead the price performance of this metal is rather more linked to changes in its supply and demand as well as the performance of other industrial metals such as copper and zinc.

However, there is one unique feature of gold that is possessed by no other investment and which ensures it is an investment of choice for many: its place in human psyche. It has been a global monetary unit for more than 2,500 years while also having significance in language, tradition and religion.

Consider “as good as gold” – a phrase not unique to the English language – as well as gold medals handed out at the Olympics and as traditional gifts particularly in India and China. Therefore, while other investments might have a rational claim to be effective in the current economic climate there are none that have the history and emotional attraction that gold enjoys and which can see it move further ahead whether prices are rising or falling.

Jonathan Spall is Director, Commodities Distribution at Barclays Capital, and is based in London
.Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2010

[JBmurc]

Gold -1273.40 not far from $1300 looking very bullish
- Gold is not Oil
-Gold is far from a bubble checkout the chart below doesn't take a T/A expert to see if GOLD bubbled up like it did back in the late 70's would mean a much higher price than today I'm talking thousands of dollars more.

[Huang Chung]

Two Peter Schiff blogs from this week.

http://www.youtube.com/user/schiffreport?blend=1&ob=4

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eQAlDJSKJYg

[Skol]

HC,
Peter Schiff, God spare me, with his record take cover.
Here's something from this mornings The Times.

"Spread betters turned sellers of the gold price for the first time in a year, after the metal touched a record high of $1275.95 an ounce.
Although investors piled into gold as the dollar weakened and worries about the economic recovery persisted, punters bet that the rally would soon lose steam".

Even if I do buy gold in some form or other I won't be succumbing to your better judgement JB, I'll be taking advantage of the herd.

[elZorro]

HC,
Peter Schiff, God spare me, with his record take cover.
Here's something from this mornings The Times.

"Spread betters turned sellers of the gold price for the first time in a year, after the metal touched a record high of $1275.95 an ounce.
Although investors piled into gold as the dollar weakened and worries about the economic recovery persisted, punters bet that the rally would soon lose steam".

Even if I do buy gold in some form or other I won't be succumbing to your better judgement JB, I'll be taking advantage of the herd.

Hey Skol, are you back from the other side of the world yet? Have you had a look at that list of 100 gold stocks? Most of them would be about 10x better than either DOW or the Dow.. unless you're very good at trading with TA. Do you have a list of 100 standard stocks that look as good? I don't think so. You missed the latest gold high, it was about $1282. Getting fairly close to $1300 as predicted by many. It'll only take some bad economic news to push it there.

[Skol]

EZ,
OGC headed south with big volume, you don't think the spread betters might be right?

[elZorro]

EZ,
OGC headed south with big volume, you don't think the spread betters might be right?

You're so wrong with OGC there: funds have just added OGC ready for Monday, and it was a bit overpriced beforehand by the smaller traders. I half expected that, as the index listings didn't add to any short-term income for the company. Of more interest is whether OGC can double gold production, or get a partner for Didipio, or sell it. Not to mention takeover or buyout opportunities. But OGC is just one company in a herd of gold producers, and that is the big picture.

[elZorro]

Could be a few moneymakers in here: http://www.top40goldstocks.com/article-Emerging-Gold-Stocks-Show-Me-the-Money.html

[JBmurc]

HC,
Peter Schiff, God spare me, with his record take cover.
Here's something from this mornings The Times.

"Spread betters turned sellers of the gold price for the first time in a year, after the metal touched a record high of $1275.95 an ounce.
Although investors piled into gold as the dollar weakened and worries about the economic recovery persisted, punters bet that the rally would soon lose steam".

Even if I do buy gold in some form or other I won't be succumbing to your better judgement JB, I'll be taking advantage of the herd.


should help you out SKOL some basic's on investing imfo
http://www.kitco.com/ind/schwensen/sep172010.html



Exploration: A company may be exploring for a viable deposit to mine. --SVL
Development: A company owns a deposit and has undertaken studies to determine its viability. ---ARD
Production: A company has deemed a deposit viable, built a mine and is producing metal. --NAV

[Skol]

Hey JB,
Where I am your 'guru' Peter Schiff has just been on TV.

Nothing's changed for years, hyperinflation, gold is up, the USD is on the cusp of implosion, young people will soon leave the country, young people may not be permitted to leave the country, buy gold (fancy that), the Govt. won't allow you to export your gold, hints at confiscation, yadda, yadda, yadda, the same old tedious crap he's been pushing for years but never happens.

[JBmurc]

Hey JB,
Where I am your 'guru' Peter Schiff has just been on TV.

Nothing's changed for years, hyperinflation, gold is up, the USD is on the cusp of implosion, young people will soon leave the country, young people may not be permitted to leave the country, buy gold (fancy that), the Govt. won't allow you to export your gold, hints at confiscation, yadda, yadda, yadda, the same old tedious crap he's been pushing for years but never happens.

Yeah don't really follow Mr schiff as much these day more so -Marc faber,jim rogers,Max keiser,david morgan

[Skol]

I would have to say gold is definitely going higher.
Last night I read 2 articles one in the Aust. Financial Review and one in Barrons, both saying its on the way up.

Does this mean it's a mania?

[macduffy]

I would have to say gold is definitely going higher.
Last night I read 2 articles one in the Aust. Financial Review and one in Barrons, both saying its on the way up.

Does this mean it's a mania?

It doesn't really matter.

Meanwhile, the PoG is trending up and so are the SP's of my little goldies. I'll keep holding them until the trend reverses and I won't worry about the "intrinsic" value of gold or whether it's under or over-priced.

[elZorro]

I would have to say gold is definitely going higher.
Last night I read 2 articles one in the Aust. Financial Review and one in Barrons, both saying its on the way up.

Does this mean it's a mania?

Skol, your first sentence.. wow. And I didn't have a bet going :)

There's a lot of M&A going on in the gold sector, a shortage of new discoveries. I found this year old article, pointing towards carefully selected juniors (http://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/2479). Note the writer is a geologist though.

[peat]

http://twitpic.com/2q8390
The first gold dispensing ATM machine in the world. Emirates Palace in Abu Dhabi

[airedale]

I would have to say gold is definitely going higher.
Last night I read 2 articles one in the Aust. Financial Review and one in Barrons, both saying its on the way up.

Does this mean it's a mania?

At last the penny has dropped. It has been going up since 2002.

[JBmurc]

I would have to say gold is definitely going higher.
Last night I read 2 articles one in the Aust. Financial Review and one in Barrons, both saying its on the way up.

Does this mean it's a mania?

-some media will make it look like mania but that's the media everything 10 time worse better etc the chart I posted top of this page shows price wise we are no-where near mania buying like it was back in 79-80 if we where it would be spiking up 3000oz+ then I'll be agreeing with you skol that gold will crash an re-set 2k or so

[lissica]

-some media will make it look like mania but that's the media everything 10 time worse better etc the chart I posted top of this page shows price wise we are no-where near mania buying like it was back in 79-80 if we where it would be spiking up 3000oz+ then I'll be agreeing with you skol that gold will crash an re-set 2k or so


Are you buying Gold in US$ or shorting US$ at the same time?

I'm a bit wary of buying in NZ$ or AU$

[JBmurc]

No I personal wouldn't buy real Gold not when silver bullion is so much cheaper if you want the real thing
my interestin Gold in via shares on the ASX -NAV,ARD,CFE
some buy future's-CFD-Warrants

[inghamp]

Yeah I am buying small increments of silver bullion as well. 10% of savings. I dont see it dropping.. good insurance

[Skol]

At last the penny has dropped. It has been going up since 2002.

The penny hasn't dropped, I know that.
The authors of both articles expressed reservations about why it's going up and who exactly was getting on board, because at some point it will have past fair value and the 'greater fool' theory will be self fulfilling.
The further it climbs the more destructive will be the end result.
All manias end abruptly with little warning and are only obvious in retrospect.

[airedale]

Hi Skol, that is an interesting point about fair value. What is the "fair value" of a paper dollar? The last paper money mania ended at the end of 2007 and there were plenty of warning signs before the GFC.

[STRAT]

Theres talk of the fears of a second dip with the GFC easing. I would be a little worried about that if I had nuggets under the bed.

The charts for both silver and gold vs US dollar look undecided about which way to go ( candles over the last few days or so ) from here and rather overbought ( RSI ). Silver in particular

[elZorro]

Theres talk of the fears of a second dip with the GFC easing. I would be a little worried about that if I had nuggets under the bed.

The charts for both silver and gold vs US dollar look undecided about which way to go ( candles over the last few days or so ) from here and rather overbought ( RSI ). Silver in particular

You could be right Strat, gold is dropping a bit today. Skol has had his gold cache repossessed anyway..
(http://www.stuff.co.nz/waikato-times/news/4148960/Gold-bars-cash-seized-at-city-house)

[Skol]

You could be right Strat, gold is dropping a bit today. Skol has had his gold cache repossessed anyway..
(http://www.stuff.co.nz/waikato-times/news/4148960/Gold-bars-cash-seized-at-city-house)
Hahaha

Not me, more likely you, you live in Hamilton.

[Skol]

This guy's got the same problem with gold I have and the suckers are piling in.


'Not everyone is bullish. Jim Paulsen, Chief Investment Strategist for Wells Capital Management has sat out the rally and says, gold is overdone.

“One of the problems I have with it is ‘gold is the answer to any problem which keeps you up a night’. That is, worried about inflation? Buy gold! Deflation? Buy gold! Deficits, Euro crisis, flash crashes, run on the U.S. dollar? Buy gold!” But, no near term catalyst for a big sell-off, more of a slow grind reaction to improving economic fundamentals may eventually shift the bias away from the “fear trade”.

Orderly commodity markets are an oxymoron — watch for a catalyst to move this market much higher or, much lower.'

[stevo1]

I've been having a debate on another thread with JBMurc on gold.
Personally I think it's going to be a fizzer and we've seen the highs for the next few years.
I reckon the stockmarkets could do well for a while and when the gold bugs, most of whom are new at the game realise what they're missing out on will jump ship and cash in their yellow metal.

Opportunity cost, insurance and safekeeping make it a risky investment and in the event of a real crisis you probably couldn't sell it, divide it into smaller pieces or eat it.

Warren Buffet agrees with me and reckons it's a waste of time. The rationale for gold bugs bullishness is the coming implosion of the $US they say.

The USA virtually paid for World War 2, Berlin Airlift and the Cold War for another 50 years all done with debt, like the stimulus.

The early '80's saw a revival of gold for a short period with investment experts imploring punters to buy gold to avoid the coming meltdown but it ended in tears.




Skol this is how you started this thread off.Still you are flying in the face of what seems obvios to those of us that have our feat on the ground.Yes gold will come back in price eventually .You seem to have a remarkable faith in the US peso and want to ignore its decline against commodity based currenciec.GOOD MONEY DRIVES OUT BAD.
Benanke is looking to start up his helicopter to drop more pesos from the sky.

[elZorro]

Skol:watch for a catalyst to move this market much higher or, much lower.'


Er, Gold just reached an all-time dollar high a few minutes ago Skol, nearly $1290 an ounce, JB's silver now worth over $21 an ounce. Gold's being ramped up and down a bit though.

Time to buy some OGC?

[Skol]

Skol this is how you started this thread off.Still you are flying in the face of what seems obvios to those of us that have our feat on the ground.Yes gold will come back in price eventually .You seem to have a remarkable faith in the US peso and want to ignore its decline against commodity based currenciec.GOOD MONEY DRIVES OUT BAD.
Benanke is looking to start up his helicopter to drop more pesos from the sky.

I do have faith in the USD and when things go bad watch for a revival. All currencies won't collapse at once and we're back in the stone age.
As long as you have your money in a basket of currencies it'll even itself out in the end.
I have Sterling, NZD, Yen, USD and AUD.

AUD is the one to be in at the moment.

It's somewhat debatable that it will 'come back' in price, I'd use different words.

[JBmurc]

Er, Gold just reached an all-time dollar high a few minutes ago Skol, nearly $1290 an ounce, JB's silver now worth over $21 an ounce. Gold's being ramped up and down a bit though.

Time to buy some OGC?

yes the trend is your friend GOLD bull trend is far from bubble territory 1300 before the years out ,from what I've read the trend could last to 2019-2020 with large corrections along the way but overall trending up slow in steady with the odd spike a fall and eventually years from now a top an major pull-back.

As for Silver many will kick themselves for not investing in this very under-rated PGM at these low prices will outperform GOLD

[lissica]

No I personal wouldn't buy real Gold not when silver bullion is so much cheaper if you want the real thing
my interestin Gold in via shares on the ASX -NAV,ARD,CFE
some buy future's-CFD-Warrants

My comments apply to silver too- given its priced in US$ and fingers crosssed we (AU$) are heading close to parity with it.

[inghamp]

Faith in the USD..

The US will not be wanting to pay back those debts (bonds) to the Chinese in todays value. They will monetize their debt in order to retain control of US assets. US did the same to the Japanese (rich from economic boom).. It was even done to the British during the railroad boom of the 19th century. Its worked so many times I don't see why they wont do it again.

They are preparing they way for monetization now.. How can anyone have faith in the USD maintaining its value given these events? They will devalue.

Unless someone can see some way out of this? The US would need a game changer right now (e.g. new technology) to dig its way out.

Given that the US is currently the worlds default currency this means everything will inflate in value.

Gold and silver included. Those that hold US currency will move more into gold as this problem becomes more apparent..

Lets not forget the delayed effect that monetary policy has on an economy... lets not forget the high interest rates of the early 90s..

[STRAT]

Yup.

When looking at the POG in Aussie Dollars compared with US dollars it paints a very different picture

[elZorro]

Wow, that is interesting Strat. Thanks for pointing it out. Gold is only holding its own against a basket of currencies perhaps. Makes goldminers look more interesting, as they are generally trading on the TSX and so are more responsive to the increasing US$gold price. Take OGC for example, their cost to produce each ounce is going up because of the exchange rate affecting power and fuel costs, parts for CAT trucks etc. But their share price is booming.

[STRAT]

Wow, that is interesting Strat. Thanks for pointing it out. Gold is only holding its own against a basket of currencies perhaps. Makes goldminers look more interesting, as they are generally trading on the TSX and so are more responsive to the increasing US$gold price. Take OGC for example, their cost to produce each ounce is going up because of the exchange rate affecting power and fuel costs, parts for CAT trucks etc. But their share price is booming.Pleasure.

Heres one for silver

Its done way better over the last 18 months comparatively speaking but also shows a clear divergence of late

[JBmurc]

Yes strat your dead right on the AUD Gold price but isn't funny the ASX market don't really seem to care an drive the ASX Goldies SP up on the US Gold price more so
I remember back when AUD gold was $1500 many of my Goldies didn't move I know one of my Gold shares NAV actually when down during the MAY spike higher an has gone much better on the back of the USD Gold

[STRAT]

Hi JB
I guess it comes down to how you value each currency.

My interpretation of the chart is that gold isnt rising, rather the US dollar is falling. I personally dont think the Green Back is worth the paper it is printed on and I think Inghamp makes a very important and valid point in his post back up the page a ways.

If one had gold bars under the bed and was planning to trade em for NZ or AUZ currency it would have been a good idea to do it about 3 months ago

[miner]

Your average punter just looks at the POG and goes wow it's still going up,what they don't do is take the exchange rate into consideration,as one can negate the other.

[whirly]

I might be your average punter! Is their a simple formula you can recommend that will give a truer picture?
W

[miner]

Strat may ? be the man for that whirly,if I was down your way I would be in the creeks finding it rather than buying it tho.

[whirly]

Strat may ? be the man for that whirly,if I was down your way I would be in the creeks finding it rather than buying it tho.

Thanks Miner, yep I've done a little bit of beach sifting and reckon thats the way. A friend has a permit and when the goings good it's all hands on deck until the next tide. Can't see me retiring on it though.

[STRAT]

I might be your average punter! Is their a simple formula you can recommend that will give a truer picture?
WPOG in US dollars / ( NZD or what ever to USD exchange rate ) = Value in NZ dollars

eg $1287.90 US / 0.7364 NZ to US rate = $1748.91 NZ

data from here

http://www.directbroking.co.nz/directtrade/dynamic/marketsummary.aspx

[whirly]

Thanks Strat I will try it out. Nothing to lose and everything to learn. :-))

[JBmurc]

one must remember ASX gold producers have high running costs in fuel so a higher AUD/USD does work in their favour with costs

[elZorro]

JB, makes sense, OGC are bleating a bit about their costs over here though. Superb spelling etc by the way..

Here's the reason the gold price jumped up yesterday, and US$ dropped, more QE due soon. (http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2010/09/21/global-markets-stocks-rally-gold-hits-new-high-fed-comment/) Stocks also went up.

[Skol]

EZ,
Wasn't it you that posted mahendraprophecy.com.
Here's his latest prognostication. 30%, that would hurt.


One thing is for sure: gold and silver has very few days left before they correct, and yes they can correct substantially. Sun transit is guiding me that both these metals can fall between 10 to 30% in the next 38 trading days.

JB,
If Mahendra's right I'll be sipping that red in the New Year. LOL

[CAM]

Thanks Strat I will try it out. Nothing to lose and everything to learn. :-))

This is good for drawing graphs and comparing prices

http://www.infomine.com/chartsanddata/chartbuilder.aspx?g=127681

[whirly]

Thanks for the very good responses...I'm not sure about that Mahendra dude though. Seems a bit grim.

I take it Skol that you are shorting gold stocks or something?

[Jess9]

Looks like we may see gold at/over $1300 tonight ; )

[inghamp]

A correction in gold and silver will only occur if suddenly people start having faith in the USD again.. Given their debt levels does anyone see this happening? The Feds are attempting a holding pattern.. how long can they keep this going for?

All those metrics we use are based on a world where only the West consumes like we do.. That is changing. All supply/demand equations need to adapt to this. Don't believe me? Go to China. See the millions (I didn't really understand the changes that will be coming until i visited China..) Silver especially looks set to continue its rise. Supply is decreasing, demand increasing. So basic..

[Skol]

A correction in gold and silver will only occur if suddenly people start having faith in the USD again.

Not true.
A correction or even a crash will occur when the herd decide to take some profits, there's a hell bent rush to unload and panic sets in, like 1980.
USD may have absolutely nothing to do with it.

Read, 'Manias, Panics, and Crashes', by Charles Kindleberger.

Here's a quote.
'Devil take the hindmost' and 'dogs bite the laggards' and the like are recipes for a panic. Tha analogy is someone yelling fire in a crowded theatre. The chain letter is another analogy because the chain cannot expand infinitely, only a few investors can sell before prices start declining. It is rational for an individual to participate in the early stages of the chain and to believe that all others will think they are rational too.

[elZorro]

Not true.
A correction or even a crash will occur when the herd decide to take some profits, there's a hell bent rush to unload and panic sets in, like 1980.
USD may have absolutely nothing to do with it.

Many of the goldbug sites mention the US dollar index, I'd never bothered to look at it, it's dropped nearly 2% in the last few days, lining up with the PoG increase in US$.

http://www.goldseek.com/quotes/charts/usdollar/usdollarindex5day.php

Note the sharp drop when the FED started mentioning QE again. There was a corresponding spike in PoG. Until gold looks badly overbought against currencies like the Aussie dollar (and there investors are currently losing money on gold), gold investors are fairly safe. Would there be any point having your US$ in a bank earning almost nothing in interest for a whole year, if the value of the capital consistently drops 2% in five days? JB's comments look closer to the truth: the US is using inflation to pay off its debts to the world.

[airedale]

Hi Zorro, this is a handy page in my favourites, it gives me the overnight picture when I switch on in the morning.http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_dx
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_dx

The US$ index influences or reflects a number of things globally.
The elephant in the room which is not yet discussed is the Chinese yuan. And if the Chinese loosen their currency, and it rises, and they might yet, the US$ will sink further. Which would actually be good for US exports.

[Skol]

Thanks for the very good responses...I'm not sure about that Mahendra dude though. Seems a bit grim.

I take it Skol that you are shorting gold stocks or something?

No, I'm an inveterate bubble watcher, there's nothing like it. The most exciting one by far was the Enron implosion. I was in the USA watching the Congressional hearings on TV and seeing these Harvard educated tossers talk down to everyone. One of these guys couldn't do a balance sheet.

Bubbles are addictive I've got books on them, I follow them all the time, there's always a bubble somewhere and you never know what's going to happen. Bankruptcies, suicides, imprisonment, plaintive cries for help from a new generation of impoverished and chastened punters.
I know there's punters out there that have thrown everything at gold including selling or mortgaging the house, so there's going to be some electrifying action sooner or later.

The longer it goes on the more exciting it gets with the goldbugs setting ever higher prices on gold, $5000, $10,000, $50,000. $1,000,000 and taking bigger and bigger risks to ensure they're in on the action. No kidding, I've seen a post that reckons it's going to be a mill an ounce.
They think they're rich but they're not until the money's in the bank and they can't bear to quit, the excitement is too addictive.

I prefer the get rich slowly method. Shares like AAC for example, red gold.

[JBmurc]

yes been yet another strong move in GOLD overnight up 5.3% last 30days current-$1291.30oz last 30 days Silver up 17.57% current $21.17oz
(why I hold more interests in Silver than Gold)

think we'll see a good size correction after a spike into low 1300 maybe even back to 1250-1270 etc before once again keeping on trend to $1500+ high next year

Gold's in a slow moving but very strong bull trend the end will come when GOLD is moving up down in $100 movements overnight IMHO many years away

[whirly]

Skol i agree about bubbles and to me the whole capitalist system seems to be a big bubble ready to burst...but as long as it doesn't I will have some skin in the game. My exposure is relatively small for me and probably miniscule relative to others here.

How do you get to drink red this summer if you've got nothing to gain from all of this?

Enjoying this thread and its healthy to read contrarian views.

Whirly

[Skol]

Skol i agree about bubbles and to me the whole capitalist system seems to be a big bubble ready to burst...but as long as it doesn't I will have some skin in the game. My exposure is relatively small for me and probably miniscule relative to others here.

How do you get to drink red this summer if you've got nothing to gain from all of this?

Enjoying this thread and its healthy to read contrarian views.

Whirly

I hope you make a few bucks but don't get carried away.
I've got a bet with JBMUrc on the gold price at the end of the year, very likely I will lose if it continues like this but also might win if it goes too far too fast and the rot sets in.

There's one thing I can absolutely guarantee - it'll go down a lot faster than it's gone up.

[elZorro]

Hi Zorro, this is a handy page in my favourites, it gives me the overnight picture when I switch on in the morning.http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_dx
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_dx

The US$ index influences or reflects a number of things globally.
The elephant in the room which is not yet discussed is the Chinese yuan. And if the Chinese loosen their currency, and it rises, and they might yet, the US$ will sink further. Which would actually be good for US exports.

Thanks for the link Airdale, this is on my Favourites list. Quite complex, this share stuff.

[Skol]

JB,
What's happened with NAV? Something about a wall failure.

[JBmurc]

JB,
What's happened with NAV? Something about a wall failure.

yeah on one corner of their Central pit hopefully not too major a clean-up might drop 2-4,000oz gold for the 10/11 planned 101,000oz good to see management keeping transparent with shareholders unlike some miners who would keep it hushed up till the Qtr report -honest management a major plus here
--will likely be a great buying opportunity for the investors maybe a panic dip to the high teens I'll be waiting to top up

[Skol]

Lucky I didn't take your advice and buy NAV.
Depending on the PoG in the next few days I'll take a look when the trading halt's over.

[JBmurc]

Lucky I didn't take your advice and buy NAV.
Depending on the PoG in the next few days I'll take a look when the trading halt's over.

well good to see your looking at taking a position if you had listen to me Skol you'd have been in NAV at 12c-14c current SP 22c+ you are right should be able to buy cheaper high teens if holders go weak on small set-back

[JBmurc]

$1300oz here we come $1500oz see you early next year $2000oz USD longer term

Max on gold recent clip
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IDuZmmz3dqg

[elZorro]

$1300oz here we come $1500oz see you early next year $2000oz USD longer term

Max on gold recent clip
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IDuZmmz3dqg

Well spotted JB: that is one hell of a presentation for goldbugs. I'm picking Skol won't like it..
If this is true, just about any gold/silver producer stock, even holders of gold/silver, should do well in the months ahead. The financial sector is in for one big wake-up. They'll have to stop fleecing their investors at every turn, with paper gold and paper money.

[JBmurc]

Yeah SKOL won't like this even more LOL still whats the GOLD price SILVER price

Time to wake up for many ---share market crash coming---real Gold silver PGM shares of the like will be the safe haven

one-http://goldsilver.com/newsletters/newsID/9144/ref/1

two-http://goldsilver.com/newsletters/newsID/9157/ref/1

......."too much reality mr maloney".....LOL
......."Think you should stop now before you wake to many people up"........!! ---------said by of the Russia banking group spokesman

yes he does sell real silver an gold bullion SKOL so I guess in your view he's shown the facts to make people buy he bullion Oh no not the nasty rare precious metal

[Skol]

well good to see your looking at taking a position if you had listen to me Skol you'd have been in NAV at 12c-14c current SP 22c+ you are right should be able to buy cheaper high teens if holders go weak on small set-back

'Small set back?'
I love beaten down shares and I'm picking a major set back, lick my chops when I see bad news.

There won't be any sharemarket crash, this is the best September for shares since 1939.

[JBmurc]

'Small set back?'
I love beaten down shares and I'm picking a major set back, lick my chops when I see bad news.

There won't be any sharemarket crash, this is the best September for shares since 1939.

So your saying their won't be a crash like 08 anytime soon ? well time will tell ,I do think we will ahve another major 20%min downward move coming from the US market within the next 6 months

[Jess9]

1300 is a tough nut to crack.

[STRAT]

1300 is a tough nut to crack.Hi Jess.
I falling USD will take care of it. Doest mean the gold is worth any more though :scared:

[Skol]

From the Motley Fool.

Gold is a speculative bubble.

See the chart below. Historically gold is not at its most expensive (inflation adjusted). There was a massive bubble in the 80's and boy did it fall down hard.

http://www.usagold.com/amk/gold20080315.gif

The reason for the bubble in the 80's was similar to ours. Fear. The soviets invaded afghanistan, the economy was in a rut... people feared that the world might be ending in a nuclear ****e storm anytime soon. Fast forward to 2010 and its the same story... now the US is in afghanistan, mass global recession, people fearing inflation. Fear. If there is one emotion that drives speculative bubbles like greed, its fear.

To anyone investing in gold, I hope you get out in time because after it hits the peak, prices will fall down hard. I'm no fortuneteller, but I feel that anyone that buys gold now will lose their pants. The only way to profit from buying gold now is to get out before it crashes.

I'm shorting gold, because this is a speculative bubble.. I think everyone knows this is a speculative bubble. There's no fundamentals, there's no p/e , it's all the same story. Here's another intersting tidbit: according to the world gold council (which promotes the demand in gold), in 2Q 2010, industrial demand for gold was about 100 tons, jewelry demand was 400 tons, and investment demand was 500 tons.What does that mean? It means that 50% of the demand in gold is driven by speculation. I laugh at it being called "investment demand" because what are they investing in here? They are investing in their hope that gold prices will keep going up..

Let's hear some of the things that people are saying to convince you to buy into this mess

"gold is a inflation hedge"

(Based on what fact?? See gold's historical inflation adjusted price. Gold is like any other security, it's only going to work if you get in when it's undervalued )

"gold has risen 3 times since 2006 and prices are at historical highs"

(really?? So i should sell when its at historical lows?)

"governments are printing/spending more money"

(But overall, government stimulus is not as high as it was since 2008/2009... why are gold prices still rising?)

I haven't heard a single good reason to invest in gold now.. It seems clear that investors have not learned a gon damd thing from the subprime crisis. They will eat whatever bull that they are fed and f me if I'm going to be one of them. The gold ETF's have really coincided with gold's rise ... more people can invest in gold easily. Sounds familiar? Ever heard of oil futures? History really does rhyme.

I'm going to profit from their stupidity. The question is when... a month, 6 month, year, two years.. who knows

[Skol]

I need some advice.
What will do well if gold crashes?
Don't want to use futures or open up another account want to buy some shares that will benefit from a gold implosion.

[JBmurc]

I need some advice.
What will do well if gold crashes?
Don't want to use futures or open up another account want to buy some shares that will benefit from a gold implosion.

why don't you short gold or silver though CFD's of the companies like NCM if you think it's going to crash your make a mint.
If say the world just forgot about monetary history an the current amount of Debt attached to the USD an other currencies --Banks etc would be doing better so go buy up bank,financiers.
pretty much buy everything but Gold silver an your be set-SKOL just make sure you've got a few dollars for the bet- no reneging on the deal if you lose 50% of your portfolio value by then

[ENP]

What will do well if gold crashes?


Cash in the safest bank you can find.

[Skol]

Cash in the safest bank you can find.

As I've already explained gold could crash at any time, it doesn't need a reason like the debt, or anything else.
All it needs is for someone or something to precipitate the panic and it's all over. Like someone yelling fire in a crowded theatre, the rush for the exit will begin.

[elZorro]

Skol: buy a good gold miner that is undervalued now, during the peaks to come all capital debt will be paid off, and when/if gold prices drop they should be in a strong position to still make a profit. Gold will not be dropping back to $300/oz, it's now much harder to find on average. e.g. OGC has been able to find some gold that will cost them minus $300/oz to extract, but only by factoring returns from the copper recovered at the same time. It'll cost them $300 mill to get into a position to extract the first ounce. I hope you watched JB's videos he posted..more upside to gold than downside for a while yet.

[STRAT]

I need some advice.
What will do well if gold crashes?
Don't want to use futures or open up another account want to buy some shares that will benefit from a gold implosion.everything else

[Skol]

I think you're right, a major beneficiary would be the USD and probably most shares because the institutions and mutual funds would be out the door first and have to stow major amounts of cash somewhere else.

[JBmurc]

Gold $3 from $1300 new all time USD high ---Silver steaming ahead 21.35 seems like only yesterday Silver broke $20

[Jess9]

I see it just cracked 1300.10 now a little below. If it gets up and over our fav goldies should have a helping hand on Monday ; )

[JBmurc]

I see it just cracked 1300.10 now a little below. If it gets up and over our fav goldies should have a helping hand on Monday ; )

And to think we've only just started the 2nd longer high growth phase which will make the first look slow then a very short but extreme growth in the 3rd phase many years from now

people worldwide are starting to wake-up even the SKOL's of the world which is really the bulk of the western world will maybe once over $2000 as the facts come out how little real Gold Silver backing is in the vaults for all the trillions of paper tenders of so called monetary value....

Somehow I think SKOL will be fight to the bitter end .........2018 Gold falls from 4800oz USD to $3300" I told you it was a bubble!!!"

[Jess9]

Nice one JB.

One only sees what one wants ; )

The real question, of coarse, is who's fooling who : ) : )

[Skol]

I see it just cracked 1300.10 now a little below. If it gets up and over our fav goldies should have a helping hand on Monday ; )

Not JB's favourite 'goldie' because on Monday it's going to get a thrashing, right JB?

Unfortunately I have to spend a few hours at work that day so won't be on deck to watch the initial action.

Seems to me that punters are nervous, OGC down 15c in NZ and 16c in Aust. In Aust the OGC chart has a gap which could indicate further falls.

Gold shares don't necessarily follow the PoG.

[JBmurc]

Not JB's favourite 'goldie' because on Monday it's going to get a thrashing, right JB?

Unfortunately I have to spend a few hours at work that day so won't be on deck to watch the initial action.

Seems to me that punters are nervous, OGC down 15c in NZ and 16c in Aust. In Aust the OGC chart has a gap which could indicate further falls.

Gold shares don't necessarily follow the PoG.

the only thrashing round here is the one I'm giving you in this comp Skol---DOW up 197 TSX up 103 bring on monday any selling in NAV will be matched in buying IMHO it will hold 20c

[elZorro]

And to think we've only just started the 2nd longer high growth phase which will make the first look slow then a very short but extreme growth in the 3rd phase many years from now

people worldwide are starting to wake-up even the SKOL's of the world which is really the bulk of the western world will maybe once over $2000 as the facts come out how little real Gold Silver backing is in the vaults for all the trillions of paper tenders of so called monetary value....

Somehow I think SKOL will be fight to the bitter end .........2018 Gold falls from 4800oz USD to $3300" I told you it was a bubble!!!"

So would Skol end up here JB?

Two things about you JB that I didn't know: OGC is your favourite Goldie? and that you also apply EWT to the gold price.

Have no fears with OGC, Skol, it has readjusted after 10% of all shares being purchased by major funds indexes, and should now track gold until further news releases bump it up.

Found this longer-term look at stocks and commodities (http://www.gold-speculator.com/daily-wealth/38878-next-great-bull-market-begins-date.html), something in here for all sides.

[Skol]

Somehow I think SKOL will be fight to the bitter end .........2018 Gold falls from 4800oz USD to $3300" I told you it was a bubble!!!"

Didn't know you had a crystal ball JB.
Here's a couple of paras. from my books here, I'm sure even you'll be able to spot the similarities.

"All speculative manias are characterized by ever-widening acceptance. In every case we studied, the seeds of a market mania are planted by the wealthy and by professional investors. (In this case, Schiff, Rogers, Faber, Chanos et.al). It was only after the masses jumped in and tried to emulate the market maker that prices seemed to really rocket beyond any semblance of fair value."

and

"It is impossible to forecast the top in a speculative mania, just as it is impossible to predict a top or bottom in normal markets. In a mania investors lose the ability to think rationally. Any attempt to forecast a price peak can be deadly. All manias are characterized by prices that, in retrospect, are irrational. Prices, having risen wildly, can keep doing so, doubling, tripling, or more."

[JBmurc]

You don't need a crystal ball to see GOLD in a massive bull trend --the Yanks looking at starting the next stage of Q.E soon enough will add fuel to the fire of the large gold/silver bull trend of the honest currency--

Japan
The yuan issue is also further complicated by Japan’s first unilateral yen intervention in six years-- estimated at more than 2 trillion yen ($23.32 billion). Japanese officials already indicated the government will continue the yen intervention if necessary. And judging from its last intervention in 2004--Y35+ trillion in 15 months—Japan’s got a long way to go.

U.S. lawmakers conspicuously didn’t address this new act of Japan during last week’s congressional hearing. In light of recent heightened tensions between China and Japan, giving Japan a free pass to intervene would only infuriate Beijing. That means zero chance for China to even consider curtailing such activity, if just for the sake of “saving face

so even though both have massive Debts to GDP they can afford to buy billion's of their own dollars an bonds it's like using one credit card to pay the other maxed out one down ..

[Skol]

Here's something from todays Yahoo Finance.

Meanwhile, gold continues its decade-long rally, hitting an intraday high of of $1,301.60 per ounce early Friday. As with Treasuries, gold continues to defy its skeptics. If recent bubbles in dot.coms and housing are any indication, gold probably hasn't peaked yet, but any asset that "can't lose" typically does -- in a big way.

[STRAT]

Hi Fellas.

Not trying to burst anyones bubble :p here but take a good look at this.

The price of Gold in 4 major currencies


Gold went up on Friday in only one. Guess which one.

Bit like climbing a ladder in an elevator thats going down I reckon.

By the way I have no interest in the POG or trading it. Just an observation


The bottom line in Green is the Aussie Dollar and probably the most relevant to us here down under.

[STRAT]

Stepping back a bit from all the noise.

In Aussie Dollars again ( this time in blue US dollar in Green ) It actually peaked in Feb 09


Theres no doubting that its been a winner over the last decade though.

Seems to me that Goldies are really FOREX traders :huh::lol: No matter which currency you value your gold in you are always using a moving target as your reference which in almost all scientific or engineering fields would be considered useless or unreliable data at best.

[Skol]

Nice charts there Strat, a different look at it.
If you believe the goldbugs, gold is a currency all on its own, so how do you measure it, what's it worth?
If the ultimate meltdown arrives as JB and goldbugs reckon, it could be something like "I'll give you an ounce of gold and you give me your 3 year old steer."

[ENP]

Nice charts there Strat, a different look at it.
If you believe the goldbugs, gold is a currency all on its own, so how do you measure it, what's it worth?
If the ultimate meltdown arrives as JB and goldbugs reckon, it could be something like "I'll give you an ounce of gold and you give me your 3 year old steer."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barter

Barter will happen if it all hits the fan. Not gold and silver...

[STRAT]

I think you're right, a major beneficiary would be the USD and probably most shares because the institutions and mutual funds would be out the door first and have to stow major amounts of cash somewhere else.Hi Skol.
If I was a gold bug I would be more interested in how everything else is doin than whether there is a bubble or not.

This chart is interesting to me too. Notice how Gold and the ASX parted company when the GFC hit.

Safe port in a storm?

If we dont get a double dip with the GFC I can see the POG moving inversely to everything else till some level of equilibrium is found even if the bubble doesnt pop.