Gold

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/commodities/2016/10/05/Gold-Prices-May-Continue-to-Sink-After-Largest-Drop-in-15-Months.html

Gold Prices May Continue to Sink After Largest Drop in 15 Months
(https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/commodities/2016/10/05/Gold-Prices-May-Continue-to-Sink-After-Largest-Drop-in-15-Months.html)
http://www.mining.com/gold-price-fight-back-cut-short-us-data/

Gold price fight back cut short by US data

[Valuegrowth]

http://www.fool.com.au/2016/10/07/heres-why-australias-gold-miners-are-getting-smashed-again/

Here’s why Australia’s gold miners are getting smashed again

http://www.theweek.co.uk/gold-price/61682/is-the-gold-price-heading-much-lower

Is the gold price heading 'much lower'?

[errantnoodle]

Seems like a coincidence that gold takes a huge hit on the day the Chinese have their week holiday. Chinese will be back on Sunday night. Western central banks are probably trying to recover their short positions from post brexit breakout after they were caught with their pants down. The media will always just report what they see, gold goes down, they report news and fear about gold going further down, gold goes up and they report news about "how far will it go" or "gold will reach X number blah". Media don't know anything to be honest, they just want to get page hits.

[JBmurc]

Seems like a coincidence that gold takes a huge hit on the day the Chinese have their week holiday. Chinese will be back on Sunday night. Western central banks are probably trying to recover their short positions from post brexit breakout after they were caught with their pants down. The media will always just report what they see, gold goes down, they report news and fear about gold going further down, gold goes up and they report news about "how far will it go" or "gold will reach X number blah". Media don't know anything to be honest, they just want to get page hits.

I agree heard many other saying it's actually a very good sign for Gold longer term to have this correction at this point ....IMHO good time
to BUY in the sector .... Fundamentals for GOLD/SILVER/PGM still look very bullish with low to negative central bank rates ...a world awash with Debt...everyone with a clue knows a correction is coming...just no one knows when for me I'd rather be early than late when GFC 2 comes knocking

[Valuegrowth]

You are right. We cannot rely on media alone. We have to do our own research as well.

Seems like a coincidence that gold takes a huge hit on the day the Chinese have their week holiday. Chinese will be back on Sunday night. Western central banks are probably trying to recover their short positions from post brexit breakout after they were caught with their pants down. The media will always just report what they see, gold goes down, they report news and fear about gold going further down, gold goes up and they report news about "how far will it go" or "gold will reach X number blah". Media don't know anything to be honest, they just want to get page hits.

[shasta]

I agree heard many other saying it's actually a very good sign for Gold longer term to have this correction at this point ....IMHO good time
to BUY in the sector .... Fundamentals for GOLD/SILVER/PGM still look very bullish with low to negative central bank rates ...a world awash with Debt...everyone with a clue knows a correction is coming...just no one knows when for me I'd rather be early than late when GFC 2 comes knocking

You had a look at PAN lately?

Not just nickel anymore, growing gold resource and PGM's. I'm not holding any but on watch especially for when nickel prices rise, no debt, has cash and a lowish market cap given its resources/projects.

[Daytr]

Not coincidence, quite typical. China's away at the shorts come out to play and take on the market.


Seems like a coincidence that gold takes a huge hit on the day the Chinese have their week holiday. Chinese will be back on Sunday night. Western central banks are probably trying to recover their short positions from post brexit breakout after they were caught with their pants down. The media will always just report what they see, gold goes down, they report news and fear about gold going further down, gold goes up and they report news about "how far will it go" or "gold will reach X number blah". Media don't know anything to be honest, they just want to get page hits.

[JBmurc]

Yes come very close to buying PAN in the low teens but pulled the order for more NKP :( ......haven't looked at them since then when I understood they wanted to sell off the Gold / PGM assets

[airedale]

POG breaking up through $1300 overnight before settling back just under. Could be the start of the next leg up.

[JBmurc]

POG breaking up through $1300 overnight before settling back just under. Could be the start of the next leg up.

Yes when Trump gets elected it will really fly ...could well see it over $1400oz USD before the years out

[corran]

so Trump wins and gold gets slammed. It's a strange world. Stocks like Goldman Sachs which I thought would have been freaking out over a Trump presidency are flying (GS is up around 14% since the election) and gold is getting slammed.

So the question is where does it go from here? Support around these levels and then back up with a vengeance? Settle on a lower support level around $1150 - 1200 and stay there for a while? Or crash on down towards $800?

I've got no clue. I think the fundamentals would suggest a higher gold price but how much stock to place on fundamentals in these markets?

[Joshuatree]

So many caught out here.A snippet from Sprott

Donald Trump’s election, combined with Republican majorities in both the House and Senate, clearly marks a new direction for U.S. government policy. Given that U.S. government policy and actions are a dominant factor in the world economy, we think it is important to take stock as to how the policies of Trump’s presidency might affect markets and, therefore, our investments and speculations.
Below is a snapshot of how certain commodities and major markets have moved this week:
Dow Jones up 4.5%, copper up 10%, Nickel up 13%, Oil about even, Gold down 5.5%, Silver down 5%, and the 10-year Treasury yield up 20% (!).
Many of these weekly percentage changes are significantly larger than average weekly variations, and we think some could be meaningful indications of what might occur as Trump’s policies take effect, while others might be short-term head fakes and non-indicative of longer term trends.
We will take the weekend to collate our own thoughts in combination with those of the broader Sprott group, and disseminate our ideas to you over the coming weeks.
In the meantime, here is a snippet of short-term analysis on the action in the gold market:
If you’ve been following the gold market over the past few days, you’ll have noticed golds negative reaction to Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidential election (contrary to what the vast majority of analysts expected).
Today the gold price has punched below the technical support level of $1,250 which initiated a chain reaction of stop losses, further exacerbating the decline. Gold closed the week at $1,225.
The charts now suggest we are likely to see a test of $1,220 to $1,200 (see the chart below), a very key support level where we have seen significant buying in the past. $1,200 is a level that warrants close attention:











https://files.constantcontact.com/bbfc9f09501/407acae3-843c-44cf-838a-c57e52be53d7.png












As a result of the selloff in gold, mining stocks have suffered in a similar fashion and a key support level at $22 on the GDX was broken to the downside.


There is strong multi-level support between the here and $19 to $20, so we are watching to see signs of accumulation/buying support here to confirm a hunch that $1,200 in gold may provide the low on this corrective leg we have been experiencing since mid-June.












https://files.constantcontact.com/bbfc9f09501/6fda95b3-e9ea-4759-9516-a4f60c77c296.png












After a week like the one we’ve just experienced, it’s also pertinent to step back and look at the bigger picture, as shown below in the weekly chart. It’s important to keep in mind that if $1,200 is hit on this down leg, gold would still be up 15% from the yearly lows of $1,050 we experienced just 10 short months ago.


Furthermore, history tells us that in the gold market it is quite common to retrace 50% of the gains of the first leg of a new bull market. Interestingly, $1,200 represents an almost perfect 50% retrace from the yearly high of $1,370.













https://files.constantcontact.com/bbfc9f09501/d9b70c73-813d-4fe0-9b8c-feba4b380665.png












The gold market is starting to look extremely oversold and for those with a more aggressive investment philosophy and a strong conviction that gold is going higher in the long term, the next few weeks may offer up a good entry point. For those with a more conservative approach, waiting for confirmation of a low in this down leg is a more suitable approach.


Beyond gold, there have been some strong moves over the past week in base metals, with copper and nickel both experience double digit percentage gains. Keep a lookout next week as I hope to release my thoughts on the sector

[corran]

Thanks Joshuatree !!

[digger]

Since the election and the following anti Trump riots I have the feeling that gold is being pushed down to nip in the bud any beginnings of economic chaos. Remember before the election we were told often enough that Trump would bring chaos and economic collapse and that gold would rapidly climb because of these fears. If the fed now brings down gold it will lay these fears somewhat.
Thoughts.

[Valuegrowth]

We should see more demand for stocks over gold in the coming months in global markets especially in 2017.Now some think copper is new gold. There could be short term support for copper.

[corran]

We should see more demand for stocks over gold in the coming months in global markets especially in 2017.Now some think copper is new gold. There could be short term support for copper.

Here's my predictions (which may very likely be wildly off the mark but it's fun having a guess eh??!!)

- The rise in copper is actually a predictor of coming inflation. Gold and silver should also be rising but are being suppressed
- Gold is being suppressed to (1) give the illusion of calm (2) enable the big boys to get their hands on physical cheap
- The sharemarket rise will fizzle out shortly (I think within weeks) and come back down with a massive correction
- Next 6 months will bring huge volatility in all assets. I think share markets will lose a lot of value. There will be massive currency fluctuations and emerging markets will be worst hurt.
- To counter this central bank's will pump a huge amount of money into the system which may cause sharemarkets to rise but will more likely cause inflation and gold to shoot up.

[airedale]

POG breaking up through $1300 overnight before settling back just under. Could be the start of the next leg up.
I should delete this post. It is not my best guess or prediction🤐

[Aaron]

I wonder if India's move to withdraw large currency notes will help the demand for gold as an alternative to put under the mattress if you lose faith in the banking system?

[JBmurc]

I wonder if India's move to withdraw large currency notes will help the demand for gold as an alternative to put under the mattress if you lose faith in the banking system?

You would think it would be a bullish outcome for Gold

[Aaron]

You would think it would be a bullish outcome for Gold
I can only hope, when Stanley Druckenmiller said he has sold out of gold because the reasons for buying it changed after Trump was elected is concerning.

Maybe I should cut my losses on gold miners now and come out reasonably even. Another investment not making me any wealthier.

[JBmurc]

I can only hope, when Stanley Druckenmiller said he has sold out of gold because the reasons for buying it changed after Trump was elected is concerning.

Maybe I should cut my losses on gold miners now and come out reasonably even. Another investment not making me any wealthier.

I have diverse my portfolio away from just the PM holdings I held months ago to now cover to recently ... tech HPA - Qld Nat Gas--Potash
Only Gold holding is IRC which as they are selling in AUD Gold ( up overnight to $1640) ... as long as you Gold investments are getting paid in AUD Rand etc still making FAt pofits ...but the likes of PRU not so good

[Aaron]

Thanks for the advice JBmurc. Sounds like I should cut my losses which I am not good at. I am holding producers rather than explorers (EVN, NCM & NST). The Phillipines president helped me secure a profit by scaring me out of OGC. NCM still good but EVN & NST bought too late. My reason for buying gold is that with the world talking negative interest rates, term deposits, bonds, cash in the bank become liabilities instead of assets. Massive money printing from central banks also bad for currencies. As far as I can tell nothing has changed except The Don is going to cut taxes and spend up large on infrastructure which means more of the same to a greater degree possibly. If central banks start selling their gold I am out.
I still think economic thinking and central banks are insane in the current world, not that I have an alternative.

[JBmurc]

Thanks for the advice JBmurc. Sounds like I should cut my losses which I am not good at. I am holding producers rather than explorers (EVN, NCM & NST). The Phillipines president helped me secure a profit by scaring me out of OGC. NCM still good but EVN & NST bought too late. My reason for buying gold is that with the world talking negative interest rates, term deposits, bonds, cash in the bank become liabilities instead of assets. Massive money printing from central banks also bad for currencies. As far as I can tell nothing has changed except The Don is going to cut taxes and spend up large on infrastructure which means more of the same to a greater degree possibly. If central banks start selling their gold I am out.
I still think economic thinking and central banks are insane in the current world, not that I have an alternative.

**** that's no good sounds like you also went in boots in all ...depending on your timeframe I do think 2017(maybe later in the year) will see higher PM prices than we have seen during the year once the reality of the debt issues + increase interest rates becomes more apparent to the wider market ....the USD is on a tear at the moment IMHO the final hooray before HUGE downwards pressure from US Bond market collapse .....

[Aaron]

**** that's no good sounds like you also went in boots in all ...depending on your timeframe I do think 2017(maybe later in the year) will see higher PM prices than we have seen during the year once the reality of the debt issues + increase interest rates becomes more apparent to the wider market ....the USD is on a tear at the moment IMHO the final hooray before HUGE downwards pressure from US Bond market collapse .....
Never boots and all as gold to me is a speculation but holy crap a 2% drop overnight looks bad for me. Breaking even would have been a great result compared to the losses I will be facing after today. Still no one has suggested how Trump will fund the big spend up. I guess if he doesn't mind bankrupting his companies he won't care about bankrupting America. Which makes money meaningless again and reinforces the argument for real estate and gold and anything except cash. Although I am holding cash in the hope of a stock market crash prior to a loss of faith in the monetary system. I am not 100% certain which would come first....

...or if either of these things will even happen. Just my negative view on the world.

[JBmurc]

Never boots and all as gold to me is a speculation but holy crap a 2% drop overnight looks bad for me. Breaking even would have been a great result compared to the losses I will be facing after today. Still no one has suggested how Trump will fund the big spend up. I guess if he doesn't mind bankrupting his companies he won't care about bankrupting America. Which makes money meaningless again and reinforces the argument for real estate and gold and anything except cash. Although I am holding cash in the hope of a stock market crash prior to a loss of faith in the monetary system. I am not 100% certain which would come first....

...or if either of these things will even happen. Just my negative view on the world.

Yes just checked my shares my only Gold share IRC hasn't even moved ...hopefully GOLD will find its bottom and bounce hard ....read today that US has excess in 35 trillion debt load ...Trump should well add another 5 trillion ... Interest rates up soon enough it will be hard enough to just pay the interest and roll over the debt let alone pay any of it off.....Trump could well be holding the can when the Bond market crashes ....

Good reason for GOLD crash .......one of the largest and most visible individual gold investors, Stan Druckenmiller, decided to liquidate his entire gold position in the middle of the night. Druckenmiller told CNBC, ‘I sold all my gold on the night of the election… All the reasons I have owned it for the last couple of years, it seems to me they may be ending. And by the way, they’re ending globally.’

[Valuegrowth]

Many market players including some top investors and traders were unwinding Both gold and bonds. Where will they park their money? Stock market could be one of them. They will target attractive ones that they think. After selling GOLD ETFs,Few fund managers are looking for opportunities in Asia. Asian markets should become bullish in 2017.

[Valuegrowth]

http://www.economiccalendar.com/2016/11/25/gold-prices-end-at-more-than-nine-month-lows/

Gold Prices End at More Than Nine-Month Lows

[Xerof]

Where will they park their money?

Copper would be a good start

[Valuegrowth]

Suddenly, there was some support for copper. Some funds were buying copper. They are parking money even in global stocks.

[Aaron]

Looks like my % losses on gold miners EVN, NST will go to single digits today. NCM bought earlier up 44% on purchase price. Pity I need them to go up about 10times to significantly affect my wealth. Still speculations should remain small.
Rampant inflation could be good for gold especially if interest rates stay low.

[denpal]

Read Stewart Thompson's latest on 321gold he's a good analyst and he is very happy right now with the gold sector. I am fully deployed in my goldies mainly NST as a blue-chip local producer.

[Aaron]

No one else to share my excitement re the price of gold so yippee all my gold company investments might breakeven today. I realized I have a terrible confirmation bias re the price of gold when I ignore articles that point out there is no way we can go back to a gold standard and gold is just a metal with few useful applications. As soon as I read that central banks are selling their gold holdings it might be too late to sell but for now I will take a chance and hang on for the bad times ahead that will drive gold higher and I will switch from this to cheap shares that can generate an income in a couple of years time after the crash.

[JBmurc]

Was always going happen been flatlining for so long yet the fundamentals stack up to higher Gold prices.... world geo-political issues + out of control debt - record low interest rates - mining costs under pressure from lower grades (as many major Gold miners getting to the end of higher grades needed during recent lows)

How do you depress the physical gold price? It’s quite easy… you throw $10 trillion paper dollars at it. Not only did global paper gold trading amount reach a new record in 2016, it surpassed the previous year’s total by nearly 50%.
https://srsroccoreport.com/record-10-trillion-paper-gold-trading-market-continues-to-depress-price/


The U.S. will never go back on a gold standard. The notion that a U.S. Dollar backed by gold would solve our financial problems is pure folly. Why? Because, if the U.S. Empire didn’t abandon the gold standard in 1971, it would have collapsed decades ago.
https://srsroccoreport.com/u-s-empire-would-have-collapsed-decades-ago-if-it-didnt-abandon-the-gold-standard/

[Aaron]

As long as gold is still held by central banks it should have some value. Why do the central banks hold gold it is a worthless metal. Is it there as a plan B if the current model turns to s**t?

[JBmurc]

Central Banks still hold it>>> as it's never in 5000yrs+ been worthless to civilized mankind >>> don't see that changing just because it's not used as a base/backing to a nation's currency ....it's more so an insurance policy of value that unlike all Fiat currency holds it's value

-------the world consumption of new gold produced is about 50% in jewelry, 40% in investments, and 10% in industry

Only 10% of the world consumption of new gold produced goes to industry,[10] but by far the most important industrial use for new gold is in fabrication of corrosion-free electrical connectors in computers and other electrical devices. For example, according to the World Gold council, a typical cell phone may contain 50 mg of gold, worth about 50 cents. But since nearly one billion cell phones are produced each year, a gold value of 50 cents in each phone adds to $500 million in gold from just this application.[48]

Though gold is attacked by free chlorine, its good conductivity and general resistance to oxidation and corrosion in other environments (including resistance to non-chlorinated acids) has led to its widespread industrial use in the electronic era as a thin-layer coating on electrical connectors, thereby ensuring good connection. For example, gold is used in the connectors of the more expensive electronics cables, such as audio, video and USB cables. The benefit of using gold over other connector metals such as tin in these applications has been debated; gold connectors are often criticized by audio-visual experts as unnecessary for most consumers and seen as simply a marketing ploy. However, the use of gold in other applications in electronic sliding contacts in highly humid or corrosive atmospheres, and in use for contacts with a very high failure cost (certain computers, communications equipment, spacecraft, jet aircraft engines) remains very common.[49]

Besides sliding electrical contacts, gold is also used in electrical contacts because of its resistance to corrosion, electrical conductivity, ductility and lack of toxicity.[50] Switch contacts are generally subjected to more intense corrosion stress than are sliding contacts. Fine gold wires are used to connect semiconductor devices to their packages through a process known as wire bonding.

The concentration of free electrons in gold metal is 5.90×1022 cm−3. Gold is highly conductive to electricity, and has been used for electrical wiring in some high-energy applications (only silver and copper are more conductive per volume, but gold has the advantage of corrosion resistance). For example, gold electrical wires were used during some of the Manhattan Project's atomic experiments, but large high-current silver wires were used in the calutron isotope separator magnets in the project.

It's estimated that 16% of the world's gold and 22% of the world's silver is contained in electronic technology in Japan.[51]

[Aaron]

Oh well if the worst comes to the worst gold might have some value for jewellery and in industry. I much prefer the $10,000 an oz gold backing the US dollar but that's pie in the sky stuff.
Looking at the chart in the SRSrocco article gold is way more popular as jewellery (49.2%) rather than investment (19%+17% CBs) but I also see the source is Wikipedia so don't know if I can rely on it. Amazing Wikipedia is probably one of the biggest sources of information globally but in reality might be a load of s**t that some a***hole felt like posting. No wonder no one knows what to believe anymore. Is Wikipedia as potentially unreliable as I imagine?

More importantly gold up over another 1% last night. Another hundred days of these type of gains and I will be a happy man, provided it doesn't mean the world is ending. Losses in the low single digits, breakeven today.

[JBmurc]

Also with the Property markets.. share-markets making record highs... bank deposits record lows ....Gold/Silver/PGM Bullion / ETF investment are a great way to diverse ones funds >>

Am myself looking to increase my Silver Bullion position currently by a few kilo's

[Valuegrowth]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/there-are-too-many-bulls-to-make-any-money-on-gold-2017-04-21

[Aaron]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/there-are-too-many-bulls-to-make-any-money-on-gold-2017-04-21

I am not a bull on gold, more like a bear on the current financial system.
Limitless currency
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-21/why-nothing-matters-central-banks-have-bought-record-1-trillion-assets-2017
Negative interest rates, taxpayer bailouts of banks and lenders, robbing from savers through inflation to help borrowers, inadvertently (maybe not) increasing wealth and income inequality while doing all these things and if history is any guide heading us all toward war.
To me there needs to be changes. The only way to address wealth inequality is central government taxing rich people more and using that for programs that benefit society as a whole.
To address the explosion in debt you need to let some people go bust and experience the dreaded deflation at least until things like Auckland property prices start making sense again. I am not very smart and only repeat what I read but a lot of boomers are reaching retirement soon and many if what I read is correct haven't saved a lot so they will be very fearful of any change and in a democracy the majority rules so I think National are doing so well because they haven't made any great changes. Only advancing their neoliberal idealism in small increments like upping regressive GST to reduce progressive income tax, selling the power generators etc. I think we will carry on doing what we are doing until it doesn't work anymore. I am unsure when that might be. A wave of defaults could cause it but how can anyone default when the taxpayer guarantees all debts, central banks buy bonds and drop interest rates to zero or below in a crisis. Maybe people one day lose faith in currency when things get too ridiculous (like negative interest rates), if they do it will be very quick and in that situation with all assets already fully priced gold might be a valid alternative as a store of wealth even as an alternative to the current monetary system if it were to lose the faith of the general public.

[Aaron]

Even Jim Bolger thinks things may need to change.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/91769882/the-9th-floor-jim-bolger-says-neoliberalism-has-failed-nz-and-its-time-to-give-unions-the-power-back

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-23/gold-tumbles-most-in-more-than-seven-weeks-after-french-election

Gold Tumbles Most in More Than Seven Weeks After French Election

[JBmurc]

One of SRSroccor reports best articles to date...is what I have believed for a long time around the Gold price and many PGM pricing

https://srsroccoreport.com/who-really-controls-the-gold-price-the-answer-is-quite-surprising/

[airedale]

Gold looking bullish overnight, up $10 as it closed near the high of the day, even as the US go in to a long weekend when normally traders take money off the table at the end of the week.

[airedale]

For the second Friday in a row gold has closed up strongly at the weekly close. US$1300 will be strong resistance to break through. Up $23 for the week. Up $16 for the day to $1279.

[shasta]

For the second Friday in a row gold has closed up strongly at the weekly close. US$1300 will be strong resistance to break through. Up $23 for the week. Up $16 for the day to $1279.

Over $A1700/oz with the USD/AUD exchange, time to suss out producers again, WGX, RSG, RMS, SAR standout to me, GOR as the near term producer

[airedale]

https://thedailygold.com/gold-miners-weak-but-not-oversold/
(https://thedailygold.com/gold-miners-weak-but-not-oversold/)
Hi Shasta, I have done ok with GOR but as a potential producer there is always the possibility of near term weakness if there is a capital raising to fund the gold mine and equippment.

As you can see from Jordan Roy-Byrne's newsletter he is still very cautious on the POG as the price in $US is unsupported by the GDX and GDXJ. In Australia that view is not quite so relevant while the AU$ is weakening against the $US.

[shasta]

GOR sold half the Gruyere project to Gold Fields for 350m cash, so they are fully funded into production and increased exploration of some 30m

[Jinx]

GOR sold half the Gruyere project to Gold Fields for 350m cash, so they are fully funded into production and increased exploration of some 30m

Afer reading this post I did a few days research on GOR and brought some Friday - seems like a solid company with some serious upside with a rise in gold price

[JBmurc]

It has been variously described as “the single greatest wealth destruction event in index history” and a “f..king scandal of the highest order”.

The decision by New York-based Van Eck to dramatically restructure its exchange-traded fund of junior gold stocks has had massive ramifications for the share prices of Australia’s gold producers over recent months, with savvy investors gleefully taking advantage of Van Eck’s shift in strategy and positioning themselves to profit from the change.

The net result is estimated to have cost Van Eck hundreds of millions of dollars in lost value, while the CEOs of the gold producers smashed by the situation have been left to lament their powerlessness over the direction of their share prices.

It highlights a potential problem when increasingly popular index-tracking ETFs get too big relative to the sector they are supposed to track.

In the case of Van Eck’s gold juniors index, the fund known as the GDXJ had swollen to the point that it was bumping up against 20 per cent ownership levels in many of its stocks, putting it at risk of breaching takeover limits.

Van Eck’s solution, announced in April, was to rewrite the rules that decided which miners could be included in the $US3.7 billion ($4.9bn) index. Previously, miners would be excluded if their market capitalisation went above $US1.6bn. Instead, that upper limit was increased to $US2.9bn.

It did not take long for the market to figure out what the changes would mean for individual stocks. Shares rose in the bigger miners that would now be eligible, such as Evolution Mining and Northern Star Resources, as traders anticipated that Van Eck would be compelled to buy the stocks.

Similarly, traders sold positions and started shorting the smaller miners, knowing that Van Eck would also need to sell down its holding to make room for those bigger parties.

According to one fund manager, the market moves in anticipation of the Van Eck rebalance have cost the fund more than $US300 million in value as it buys and sells shares in miners that have already had their prices inflated or deflated by investors anticipating the fund’s moves.

John Ellis, the investment manager at Hong Kong-based APAC Resources, has been watching the situation closely.

“In the lead-up to these index changes everyone can do the maths and see what they’ve got to buy and what they’ve got to sell. Deletions get sold off in advance so the GDXJ sells at depressed prices, and additions get bought up in advance so they buy at elevated prices,” Ellis tells The Weekend Australian.

“Technically, they are tracking the index, but all the front running can mean such a huge amount of value destruction.”

The problem with the Van Eck index, he says, is its scale relative to the market for junior goldminers.

“Resources aren’t a big part of global markets to start with, and now you’re talking about gold, and not just gold but junior goldminers,” Ellis says.

“So it’s a tiny sector, yet this is one of the world’s five largest equity ETFs by assets. It’s become the tail wagging the dog.”

Van Eck’s gold fund has been something of a victim of its own success.

Investors will often want a small exposure to gold as part of a balanced portfolio, but the sector’s volatility and its specific technical aspects — a quirk in geology or metallurgy can be the difference between a successful mine and a failure — adds to the appeal of investing in an ETF like Van Eck’s GDXJ.

Kris Walesby, the head of ETF Securities, says the history of the gold sector as a “high-risk, high reward” industry means it is ideally suited to ETFs.

“A lot of investors want exposure but don’t want that single-stock risk. That’s the premise of all ETFs, but for goldminers it is particularly relevant.”

The scale of the Van Eck fund compared to the junior gold market had reached a level where it could change the direction of the market through rebalances.

“The original reason for ETFs was to track the market, not to move the market,” Walesby says.

The Van Eck rebalancing is due to be wrapped up by the middle of this month. In theory, shares in affected companies should start to track back towards their true value, which should bring some relief to those miners who have seen their share prices hammered.

But for those miners already under pressure coming into the rebalance, the timing of the Van Eck selldown has been particularly unwelcome and unhelpful.

The frustrated managing director of one of the goldminers, who did not want to be named, described it as a “f..king scandal of the highest order”.

The juniors were beneficiaries of the fund’s success when it took its original positions and grew its holdings, but the last few months have been a strong reminder that the fund can cut both ways.

Another managing director, Westgold Resources chief Peter Cook, laments that the Van Eck changes have become the dominant influence on the company’s share price.

“The reality is that what you do in your normal day job bears no reference to the market,” he says.

“Van Eck is so big, and the weight of their entries and exits into stocks is above what stocks in our market can bear, so they have the propensity to create a lot of volatility.”

For some in the industry, seeing Van Eck shoot itself in the foot with the rebalance has brought a bit of schadenfreude.

Unlike traditional fund managers, which will often employ industry specialists such as geologists and engineers to develop an informed view about which stocks to buy and sell, the investments of Van Eck’s gold funds are determined solely by the fluctuations of share prices.

“I’m extremely negative on ETFs,” Cook says. “They don’t put anything into the industry, they don’t employ geologists and explorers, they don’t invest in gold directly, they’re just a basket.

“They live off it and they don’t put anything back.”

Compounding the problem for Van Eck was the fact its big positions in individual miners often swamped the average daily trading volumes. TD Securities analyst Peter Haynes, the man who described the Van Eck rebalance as “the single greatest wealth destruction event in index history”, noted early on that the implied sales volumes of Van Eck’s stakes in the likes of ASX duo Ramelius Resources and Silver Lake Resources represented almost four weeks of average volumes.

A spokesman for Van Eck declined to comment.

As the rebalancing enters its final days, investors are preparing to take advantage of the potential bargains that have been washed out by the Van Eck selling. “It’s a short-term technical trading issue and I can’t help but feel the market’s probably oversold some of these GDXJ downweights,” Ellis says.

“Aussie dollar gold is near five-year highs and some stocks are near 12-month lows.”

[JBmurc]

First time ever I have got myself 244 ....GOLD.etf shares - @-$151.300 (thanks to selling my MCR/MGX positions for tidy profits)

going be interesting how it plays out .... good rise on the close ...did look oversold both AUD strength and USD Gold selling pressure >>overnight trade $600-$800 would be great

ETPMAG - BEAR - BBOZ other asx ETFs I keep an eye on

[Aaron]

Just second guessing myself again but reading an article that said they think the US Central Bank will raise interest rates and reduce their bond portfolio even if data isn't so great.

I would have thought these things would be bad for the price of gold as my theory is that loose monetary policy particularly low interest rates are good for gold and if loose monetary policy gets extreme there is the slight possibility of a loss of faith in currency.

I wonder if I should sell my gold miners. All large producers I think.

[JBmurc]

Just second guessing myself again but reading an article that said they think the US Central Bank will raise interest rates and reduce their bond portfolio even if data isn't so great.

I would have thought these things would be bad for the price of gold as my theory is that loose monetary policy particularly low interest rates are good for gold and if loose monetary policy gets extreme there is the slight possibility of a loss of faith in currency.

I wonder if I should sell my gold miners. All large producers I think.

I don't think you can really trust many of the so called theories of whats going be good or bad for gold ...

.as we know Gold in "meant" to trade inverse of the USD (very wrong of late)

And as a protection against inflation ...GOLD is meant to rise with inflation like it did from the early 2000's to the peak 2011 along with many other fear factors >>

I know Martin Armstrong believes Gold should be purchased when you lose trust in your elected Govt financial direction >>

[Aaron]

Monetary tightening starting to affect the price of gold.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-16/three-charts-showing-hedge-funds-losing-precious-metals-faith
My gold miners just breaking even, tempting to sell before a loss but it has been a wasted investment as dividends were very small.
The question is whether monetary tightening will cause a dip in financial markets whereby central banks loosen policy again and gold shines once more. What time frame could this take?
I read an article where it was suggested that cryPto currencies would be the new gold. I don't agree as gold is tangible and most people understand how it works. It is rare and pretty so holds it's value and while central banks hold it as a financial asset I can keep the faith(really this is similar to currencies when I think about it.). Seriously considering looking at the largest chunk of farmland I can afford. Unfortunately that might only be uneconomical blocks up in the hills.
Really hard to know what to do. Don't suggest a diversified managed fund as I am still skeptical we won't have another financial crisis in our lifetime.

[JBmurc]

'Gold is about break out on the upside strongly,' Dennis Gartman says
The runup in gold prices is far from over, commodities expert Dennis Gartman told CNBC.
He believes right now investors should have about 10 to 15 percent of their portfolios allocated to gold.
His comments came shortly after Ray Dalio said he recommends investors allocate 5 to 10 percent of their portfolios to gold because of the rising North Korea risk.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/10/gol...-the-upside-strongly-dennis-gartman-says.html



personal gold holdings - PRU,IRC,RMS

[shasta]

'Gold is about break out on the upside strongly,' Dennis Gartman says
The runup in gold prices is far from over, commodities expert Dennis Gartman told CNBC.
He believes right now investors should have about 10 to 15 percent of their portfolios allocated to gold.
His comments came shortly after Ray Dalio said he recommends investors allocate 5 to 10 percent of their portfolios to gold because of the rising North Korea risk.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/10/gol...-the-upside-strongly-dennis-gartman-says.html



personal gold holdings - PRU,IRC,RMS

Gold still hanging around US1288/oz or approx AU1630/oz so any producer with costs under AU1200/oz still making plenty.

Nice wee end of trading week bump for GOR after releasing new presentation, along with the gold price inching up this week

GOR is 23 percent of and my 2nd largest holding, also have exposure to gold via ARV, but very comfortable with this based on fundamentals

Still buying physical silver with the price around US17/oz or NZ23/oz shouldn't be such a disconnect between gold and silver prices

[Aaron]

I expect all my gold producers will all pass their purchase prices today. Wonder how long it will last.
I read the other day someone worked out that if all investors had 10 to 15% gold in their portfolio as Ray Dalio recommends, there might not be enough gold available for everyone. That could only be good for the price of gold. I can only guess that Ray made this comment after securing his 10%.

[Aaron]

I expect all my gold producers will all pass their purchase prices today. Wonder how long it will last.
I read the other day someone worked out that if all investors had 10 to 15% gold in their portfolio as Ray Dalio recommends, there might not be enough gold available for everyone. That could only be good for the price of gold. I can only guess that Ray made this comment after securing his 10%.

That didn't last long. Wondering if I should sell today while I am ahead and buy back in later.

[cyclist]

That didn't last long. Wondering if I should sell today while I am ahead and buy back in later.

Reading between the lines, you may perhaps be overexposed to this sector, relative to your comfort levels for the ups and downs?

I also gather from your posts that you are expecting a big downdraught in the markets at some stage. That may happen, but in the mean time there are individual stocks that from time to time become very well priced in isolation. I would suggest that SUM is a present example, and there are always others. Why not sell at least a portion of your goldies now and spread it around a bit. Kill two birds with one stone.

Disc: I held OGC for a while, and was very happy with how it acted as a hedge for the rest of my portfolio. So a mix of goldies and others sectors seems to work well to help with sleeping at night. (Sold OGC due to the uncertainties in the Philippines. Otherwise would still be happily holding despite the ups and downs).

(May be off base. As I say, just reading between the lines).

[Aaron]

Reading between the lines, you may perhaps be overexposed to this sector, relative to your comfort levels for the ups and downs?

I also gather from your posts that you are expecting a big downdraught in the markets at some stage. That may happen, but in the mean time there are individual stocks that from time to time become very well priced in isolation. I would suggest that SUM is a present example, and there are always others. Why not sell at least a portion of your goldies now and spread it around a bit. Kill two birds with one stone.

Disc: I held OGC for a while, and was very happy with how it acted as a hedge for the rest of my portfolio. So a mix of goldies and others sectors seems to work well to help with sleeping at night. (Sold OGC due to the uncertainties in the Philippines. Otherwise would still be happily holding despite the ups and downs).

(May be off base. As I say, just reading between the lines).

Thanks for the advice. No not overexposed just a small speculation that the end of the financial world will be good for gold. Will have a look at SUM after the crash. PE ratio looks alright but that will be on the back of upward asset revaluations. I need to look at operating cashflow and read the SUM thread.

[shasta]

Still some undervalued goldies under the radar. Sold CHN quick trade in last week at av 15.5c out av 25c into todays ann. Has been trading with a negative EV, and you know i love these type of plays.

AUC, and AZY are the other goldies i'm holding worth looking at with the potential to move in the short term

AZY has ann out today, Rio Tinto is already spending 60m to earn into there large projects, and AUC is hunting in elephant country where GOR found 6m+ oz, plenty of gold to be found out there, green fields exploration.

Also holding GOR, this is a long term hold as fully funded and in project development/construction, production 1Q 2019

Gold still trading around A1640/oz with the USD/AUD balancing the gold price movements +/-

DYOR, I've done mine

[JBmurc]

exited my RMS position for small loss ... Gold really breaking down the USD (the real sentiment maker)

Need to raise some funds for GST bill in few more weeks so time to sell some shares >>

[JBmurc]

When those stars went supernova (collapsed in on themselves and exploded), even heavier elements were created. But it’s been “a mystery for a long time where gold and platinum come from,” Brown explains. Even supernovae are not powerful enough to create those.
It had been theorized that a kilonova — the explosion after the merger of two neutron stars — could. And because astronomers were able to so quickly locate the merger, they confirmed this. The color and quality of the light coming from the afterglow of the explosion confirmed the creation of gold and platinum. It was like witnessing alchemy in action.
“The gold that we see on Earth was once created in the nuclear fire of a binary [neutron star] merger,” Brown says. “I’m wearing a wedding ring right now; it’s made of platinum. I’m like holy sheet, this was made in a neutron star collision.”

https://www.vox.com/science-and-hea...ational-wave-neutron-star-merger-gold-alchemy

[Jerry]

It's shame we physicists aren't a bit richer.


When those stars went supernova (collapsed in on themselves and exploded), even heavier elements were created. But it’s been “a mystery for a long time where gold and platinum come from,” Brown explains. Even supernovae are not powerful enough to create those.
It had been theorized that a kilonova — the explosion after the merger of two neutron stars — could. And because astronomers were able to so quickly locate the merger, they confirmed this. The color and quality of the light coming from the afterglow of the explosion confirmed the creation of gold and platinum. It was like witnessing alchemy in action.
“The gold that we see on Earth was once created in the nuclear fire of a binary [neutron star] merger,” Brown says. “I’m wearing a wedding ring right now; it’s made of platinum. I’m like holy sheet, this was made in a neutron star collision.”

https://www.vox.com/science-and-hea...ational-wave-neutron-star-merger-gold-alchemy

[JBmurc]

https://goldswitzerland.com/sell-cryptos-buy-gold/

GLOBAL LIABILITIES OF $2 QUADRILLION
Whatever central banks and politicians say, nothing has been solved. On the contrary, risk has grown exponentially since 2006. Global debt has doubled to around $230 trillion since then. If global unfunded liabilities of $250 trillion and derivatives of $1.5 quadrillion are included, the world is now staring at total liabilities and risk of $2 quadrillion.

[Joshuatree]

Had to look up what a Quadrillion is. Its a 1000 trillion:scared:. Reminds me when i was young trying to get a grasp on the Infinity symbol.
As long as money keeps moving the illusion appears to be safe.

[stevo1]

Had to look up what a Quadrillion is. Its a 1000 trillion:scared:. Reminds me when i was young trying to get a grasp on the Infinity symbol.
As long as money keeps moving the illusion appears to be safe.

Makes you wonder how far off it is before these figures balloon out to a Centillion.(A centillion is the largest lexicographically accepted number in the dictionary, a one followed by 303 zeroes) Seeing as inflation appears dead it is really hard to see where all these big numbers have come from,ahh quantitative easing at work .Smoke and mirrors that has inflated property ,vintage vehicles,etc,etc,etc
.See anyone can create money out of thin air -cryptocurrency is only validated by its perceived limited numbers(bit coin 21 million) and the willingness of people to "in God we trust" it. The lunatics are in charge of the asylum.PMs though do NOT reflect this probably as much as anything to do with derivatives ,futures,cfds and other "instruments" in the ether that have cause and effect on them with nothing physical behind them other than punters betting on directions.Meanwhile money in the bank purchase power is being killed.God knows where this circus is going as an end result.Logic would suggest that it aint gonna end well=== so much for logic

[JBmurc]

GREED has kicked Logic well out the door well for the present time(along with FEAR backed real FACTS)>> doesn't matter where I turn at the moment I hear of MASSIVE Growth
never-ending Building Boom ..dirt cheap money for A LONG LONG TIME..

heard today on the radio talk ....one single bitcoin transaction chews up enough power to power 9 average homes for a day ...TALK about destorying the planet ..soon we will have hundreds of Nuclear plants getting built just to make more magic Crytos ...what a waste of energy

I seen today for every litre of Gas $2 my 200kw 3000cc six Legacy takes me and 1.7ton some 12-13 kms in distance...Now I find that more briliant engneering than having how much Coal burnt in some third world staving nation to make a currency thats not even a currency in sense .. to be able to not be part of our national agreed currency we all work together to pay TAXs in so we can live in a civilised nation of free healthcare policing roading etc etc

It truely is ****ED

[Crypto Crude]

jbmurc....
you have not done the research that it takes to even be giving any advice whatsoever about crypto...

[Logen Ninefingers]

There seems to be some mysticism around 'cryptos' that IMO is a veneer used to justify their current price.

It's like you have to understand 'the matrix' behind these things to truly be able to comment on them.

Well I don't buy that.

The mystique and the reasoning put forward is fluff, but it is used as a way of shouting down anyone who would warn against this crazy speculative bubble: "Hey, you don't understand it, therefore you can't comment. We who get it, we can speak on it informatively and tell everyone how valuable it is and why it will be going much, much higher".

Anyone who owns Bitcoin's (or other crypto's) will find the above to be a very valuable tool in telling others to shut-up. It is a cloak of assumed intellectual superiority wielded to fuel a speculative bubble.

The bottom line is that there is nothing of intrinsic value at the core of Bitcoin. It does not have the backing of 'full faith and credit', it is not backed by PM's, it is not a PM itself.

Whoever put the 'Bitcoin' proposition together has endeavoured to appropriate the properties of Gold and dress Bitcoin up in them. 'Mining' Bitcoin, "hey, it's scarce", photo's of 'physical Bitcoins' styled out of Golden metal.....pretty obvious what is going on here.

This operates a bit like a religion. When it has very few people engaging with it is a 'cult', now it has millions going nuts it is treated as a respectable entity.

[Aaron]

Good on all the people who have made a fortune with cryptocurrencies. Shame about the gold price though. If crypto's are a bubble and some cryptocurrencies crash and go to zero it might give people pause for thought about govt backed fiat currencies and how these are being debased by things such as quantitative easing and negative interest rates. How simple it has been to add to the money supply. If crypto's can go to zero theoretically so could fiat currencies if people lose faith in them.

[shasta]

There seems to be some mysticism around 'cryptos' that IMO is a veneer used to justify their current price.

It's like you have to understand 'the matrix' behind these things to truly be able to comment on them.

Well I don't buy that.

The mystique and the reasoning put forward is fluff, but it is used as a way of shouting down anyone who would warn against this crazy speculative bubble: "Hey, you don't understand it, therefore you can't comment. We who get it, we can speak on it informatively and tell everyone how valuable it is and why it will be going much, much higher".

Anyone who owns Bitcoin's (or other crypto's) will find the above to be a very valuable tool in telling others to shut-up. It is a cloak of assumed intellectual superiority wielded to fuel a speculative bubble.

The bottom line is that there is nothing of intrinsic value at the core of Bitcoin. It does not have the backing of 'full faith and credit', it is not backed by PM's, it is not a PM itself.

Whoever put the 'Bitcoin' proposition together has endeavoured to appropriate the properties of Gold and dress Bitcoin up in them. 'Mining' Bitcoin, "hey, it's scarce", photo's of 'physical Bitcoins' styled out of Golden metal.....pretty obvious what is going on here.

This operates a bit like a religion. When it has very few people engaging with it is a 'cult', now it has millions going nuts it is treated as a respectable entity.

When you start receiving unsolicited spam email raving on bout bitcoin, and you see paid ads everywhere on the internet stating 5 dollars in Etherum now could be worth 1 million in 2 years, the bubble/hype has hit manic propositions, just like MLM, ponzi schemes etc, those in at the start ramping the pants of it will make money, then the greater fool theory/herd mentality kicks in, selling out into the new money.

i have shares in ISX - payment technology software platform, for online secure transactions, this type of investment that is generating income could benefit should cryptos ever become mainstream and regulated as it really only has Paypal as a direct competitor.

i dont understand bitcoin/cryptos, nor how its caught on to such hysteria proportions in the media, there's money to be made for sure, at the far speculative end of the market, being a small percentage of any portfolio.

Im not adverse to taking risks/trading when the right opportunity presents itself, bitcoin at 1000 each might have been worth a punt but at 15000, is it likely to go up and be another 15 bagger to 225,000 each now? Those who have made there in this would already be out/mostly sold out.

Meanwhile, ill hold onto my gold shares and physical silver and await the inevitable upcoming crash/correction, probably starting with bitcoins etc all bubbles end in tears for those last in the door...

[Logen Ninefingers]

When you start receiving unsolicited spam email raving on bout bitcoin, and you see paid ads everywhere on the internet stating 5 dollars in Etherum now could be worth 1 million in 2 years, the bubble/hype has hit manic propositions, just like MLM, ponzi schemes etc, those in at the start ramping the pants of it will make money, then the greater fool theory/herd mentality kicks in, selling out into the new money.

i have shares in ISX - payment technology software platform, for online secure transactions, this type of investment that is generating income could benefit should cryptos ever become mainstream and regulated as it really only has Paypal as a direct competitor.

i dont understand bitcoin/cryptos, nor how its caught on to such hysteria proportions in the media, there's money to be made for sure, at the far speculative end of the market, being a small percentage of any portfolio.

Im not adverse to taking risks/trading when the right opportunity presents itself, bitcoin at 1000 each might have been worth a punt but at 15000, is it likely to go up and be another 15 bagger to 225,000 each now? Those who have made there in this would already be out/mostly sold out.

Meanwhile, ill hold onto my gold shares and physical silver and await the inevitable upcoming crash/correction, probably starting with bitcoins etc all bubbles end in tears for those last in the door...

If you refer to Bitcoin as a 'token', you get told "no, it's a ledger entry in a virtual book". Meanwhile someone else attempting to explain it states that the 'mining' part is a complex validation process gone through when transferring a Bitcoin to someone else. (Pretty sure this is wrong, btw).

Currency should be above all a very simple and effective means of making payment. How do you but a loaf of bread with a $15,000 'Bitcoin'(?)

Imo, this is much worse and more insane that the much-mocked 'Tulip-mania' of 1600's Holland. At least the tulip bulbs had a nominal intrinsic value, at least they were a physical 'something'!!

Interestingly, if Bitcoin and crypto's are now seen as a 'safe haven' alternative to Gold, then undoubtedly we will see a flight back to Gold when this - THE most ridiculous bubble in history - collapses.

[stevo1]

Gold has been degraded by the ether of futures options cfds etc which are not dissimilar to bitcoin in so much as nothing is behind the value other than people taking bets against each other (blockchain process does have value as a borderless ledger).Bitcoin is an invention of the "only" 21 million bitcoins to be on issue ever however Each bitcoin (BTC) is divisible to the 8th decimal place, so each BTC can be split into 100,000,000 units. Each unit of bitcoin, or 0.00000001 bitcoin, is called a satoshi. A Satoshi is the smallest unit of Bitcoin.So much for the numbers.
At the moment bitcoin miners are using the equivalent of the entire electricity use of Ireland to power machines for "mining". The projections are that if that increases at the present rate then by 2020 the"miners"will use the amount of electricity equivalent to the ENTIRE world output.That is without including crypto copycats mining other cryptos. That of itself dooms it to eventual failure.
The irony in all of this is that its inception and relative acceptance is to step away from printing money(Quantitive easing) and the banks ability to control other peoples money. (bail outs from governments to banks,bail in by confiscation of depositors money by banks)
because it is a peer to peer there are virtually no controls on where or who money using bitcoin goes to
The gold standard was replaced by fiat currency .Bitcoin is an attempt to replace fiat currency hence (the new gold standard tag) revolutionary in that respect.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Gold has been degraded by the ether of futures options cfds etc which are not dissimilar to bitcoin in so much as nothing is behind the value other than people taking bets against each other (blockchain process does have value as a borderless ledger).Bitcoin is an invention of the "only" 21 million bitcoins to be on issue ever however Each bitcoin (BTC) is divisible to the 8th decimal place, so each BTC can be split into 100,000,000 units. Each unit of bitcoin, or 0.00000001 bitcoin, is called a satoshi. A Satoshi is the smallest unit of Bitcoin.So much for the numbers.
At the moment bitcoin miners are using the equivalent of the entire electricity use of Ireland to power machines for "mining". The projections are that if that increases at the present rate then by 2020 the"miners"will use the amount of electricity equivalent to the ENTIRE world output.That is without including crypto copycats mining other cryptos. That of itself dooms it to eventual failure.
The irony in all of this is that its inception and relative acceptance is to step away from printing money(Quantitive easing) and the banks ability to control other peoples money. (bail outs from governments to banks,bail in by confiscation of depositors money by banks)
because it is a peer to peer there are virtually no controls on where or who money using bitcoin goes to
The gold standard was replaced by fiat currency .Bitcoin is an attempt to replace fiat currency hence (the new gold standard tag) revolutionary in that respect.

A 'Satoshi' you say(?) This becomes more bizarre the more I read about it.

Gold itself hasn't been degraded. Gold is still Gold, the metal - with it's own unique properties which make invaluable for all the uses humanity puts it to.

The PTB can intervene with the futures options etc; still - Gold got to USD 1900 an oz in the past, so surging demand can overwhelm manipulators and shorters.

The Gold standard still exists via the idea that it is unpegged from the USD and floating, which is self-evident: 1 oz of Gold can be exchanged for USD 1244.13 as of this moment.

The idea that Gold and it's 5,000 year history has been KO'ed permanently be this 'Bitcoin' flash-in-the-pan is not credible. There have been a plethora of challengers in the past, and Gold has survived everything from being banned from private ownership in the US under FDR, being labelled a "barbarous relic" by John Maynard Keynes in 1923, and taking the US off the (official) Gold standard.

[Crypto Crude]

everyone is entitled to their opinion... far enough... fundamentally this is like nothing that has come before it... so dont try to value it like that...
this is the digital age... if you think about it everything is all just data ...the value of facebook is just the value of its data...lol.. us... and how to market to it... how we communicate is all data... there are many aspects to this which make it more complex....
...
everybody wants us dollars... but what are they backed by?... they are backed by huge debt and gold and so on that doesnt even exist... the fed prints money as it chooses... its all a rothschild invention...is that not a scam in itself?... I dont then hear shasta saying "I dont want us dollars then"... or new zealand dollars...
...
many coins are coming up with real world applications... bad coins are and should reflect the value of the coin...
there is a lot of speculation and coins can easily become worth more than they should be... some people are losing lots of money making bad investments... this goes down too...
there are plenty of full speculative coins and will be seen if they are any use or not....
altcoins are just starting to run theres a whole lot of them up 10000% this year and still turning over...
ethereum is now near all time highs...
perhaps you should come over to the off market discusion thread...
weeeeeeee

[stevo1]

Good on all the people who have made a fortune with cryptocurrencies. Shame about the gold price though. If crypto's are a bubble and some cryptocurrencies crash and go to zero it might give people pause for thought about govt backed fiat currencies and how these are being debased by things such as quantitative easing and negative interest rates. How simple it has been to add to the money supply. If crypto's can go to zero theoretically so could fiat currencies if people lose faith in them.

Aaron I can only agree. It has been a LOOOOONG time since I have bought gold until now.In a lot of ways cryptos are a backlash against the fiat money system,quantitative easing,bank bailouts and the possibility of bank bail ins (using depositors money in the event of failure)etc etc.Cryptos are not gold or silver and I do not think that they will replace them.If there is a backlash against fiat and cryptos where is there left to go????

The value of gold has been well and truly undermined by the paper gold market (futures,derivatives ,CFDs)which is massively bigger than the physical metal.Bitcoin touted as the "new" gold and now traded on the futures market.These people are betting on air and paper---- physically holding nothing

[JBmurc]

Yes when you look through recent and longer-term monetary history of the Master Central Bank "FEDERAL RESERVE" its always had an anti PM stance >>(outside Alan Greenspan in more recent years)

Gold was the enemy to me— Paul Volcker, former chairman, Federal Reserve

Alan Greenspan- calls gold the "ultimate form of money" and warns that gold could displace fiat currencies if "sovereign" governments experience a financial crisis.

Greenspan has come out in favor of a more sound monetary policy, including a favorable view of gold as the world’s reserve currency:
“I view gold as the primary global currency. It is the only currency, along with silver, that does not require a counterparty signature

the Gold reserve act 1934>
Section 2 of the act transferred ownership of all monetary gold in the United States to the US Treasury. Monetary gold included all coins and bullion held by individuals and institutions, including the Federal Reserve. In return, individuals and institutions received currency at a rate of $35 per ounce of gold.

“It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.”
— Henry Ford

-the late Congressman Louis McFadden, Chairman of the House Banking and Currency Committee in the 1930s, described the Fed in the following words:

“Some people think that the Federal Reserve Banks are United States Government institutions. They are private monopolies which prey upon the people of these United States for the benefit of themselves and their foreign customers; foreign and domestic speculators and swindlers; and rich and predatory money lenders.”

[Crypto Crude]

steveo...
if bitcoin was priced at golds market cap each bitcoin would be $400,000 each...

[stevo1]

steveo...
if bitcoin was priced at golds market cap each bitcoin would be $400,000 each...


At a price of US$1,250 per troy ounce, reached on 16 August 2017, one tonne of gold has a value of approximately US$40.2 million. The total value of all gold ever mined would exceed US$7.5 trillion at that valuation and using WGC 2017 estimates.
Too true and if stevo1coin at golds market cap each stevo1coin would be $750,000,000.
So actually WHAT IS YOUR POINT .Is it the stevo1coin is underpriced??
Though it has just doubled again to $800,000
So much of this is a nonsense,playing with 1s and zeros in cyberspace for an invented "currency" the blockchain is a great ledger accounting method but it is only that at this stage.A herd driven greed induced mania, when in the REAL world for millennium humans have relied on the tangible ,fungible and trade able metals

[airedale]

Gold at $1288 overnight and knocking on the $1300 resistance ceiling {again}. Any break through will depend on further US$ index weakening.

[airedale]

And it came to pass last night, briefly touching $1308 before settling at $1303. All on US$ index weakness of course.

[JBmurc]

And it came to pass last night, briefly touching $1308 before settling at $1303. All on US$ index weakness of course.

Yes AUD Gold still in the 1650's range still funny how the ASX Goldies get more market interest on the USD Gold price ....

Really think 2018 will see GOLD/Silver finally break free of the sideways trade and make a sizable gain $1500oz+ (my pick)

[Blue Horseshoe]

I like the way your thinking JBmurc, I'm hoping for the usual slam down though as I need to top up on miners and more physical then to the moon thank you.

[peat]

Gold (USD) on fire. This leg up from the 13th Dec is almost starting to look parabolic.
9377

[airedale]

Hi Peat, you are right it has gone too quickly too fast. I would like to see a correction soon but I think that the long term trend is up.

[wizAlvin]

last hours for 2018 competition entries

[airedale]

The major driver for POG is the falling US$ index. It has just slipped down past the psychologically important 90 mark.

[airedale]

Yesterday at Davos US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that he welcomed a weaker US$. That of course put further downward pressure on the dollar index. Down a further 1% overnight. All positive for gold,silver and other metals.

[JBmurc]

One of the best Bull runs in USD Gold I've seen for some time..Glad to have my PM positions >>

[shasta]

GOR up from sitting around 70c going nowhere to a close at 84c yesterday.

Awaiting the PoS to catch up....

[airedale]

The US$ index may be oversold and due for a bounce up, so we may get a short term pull back in POG.

[airedale]

https://thedailygold.com/what-the-stock-market-decline-means-for-gold-gold-stocks/

I do not subscribe to Jordan's newsletter but I find his free commentary interesting.

[petty]

I'm sure if I scroll through this thread ill find it eventually and I apologise in advance, but is someone able to recommend a method for purchasing gold here in NZ. Ive never purchased gold but am looking to add some to my portfolio which is currently heavy in cash and equity's.

[JBmurc]

I'm sure if I scroll through this thread ill find it eventually and I apologise in advance, but is someone able to recommend a method for purchasing gold here in NZ. Ive never purchased gold but am looking to add some to my portfolio which is currently heavy in cash and equity's.

Many locations to buy I’ve had great success with BuyBullion nz

[JBmurc]

Rising and higher interest rates may in fact be bullish for gold prices, simply because they are typically bearish for stocks. ... Gold prices increased by more than 150% during 1973 and 1974, at a time when interest rates were rising and the S&P 500 Index dropped by more than 40%.

[Aaron]

Any ideas on where the price of gold is headed?

Silly question really, as no one knows, but still interested in opinions and the reason behind the opinions. Main reason for asking is my investment in gold companies (producers) is still ahead 35% after being whittled down from 40-50% (not sure exactly the gain as I didn't really check). My reasons at the time were that I was waiting for a crash and had to do something as waiting is hard. If my opinion that the financial/monetary isn't making much sense anymore (think negative interest rates, Japanese central bank, US govt deficits, Auckland house prices etc.etc) then maybe a lose in confidence in currencies would strike before a crash in asset prices (real estate, shares) then as long as central banks still hold gold it is still a plan B for currencies if things turn to ****. Got lucky with the timing but still don't know where gold is going or understand the market (demand) or even the business of extracting it for that matter.

Maybe the technicians can tell me what they think. As Phaedrus always said technical analysis isn't about predicting the future it is about what is happening now via the price. If the price is going down for now maybe I should bail out and take the profit that is left. That will make me a reef fish but it would be a shame to watch all my past gains disappear as gold drops.

[JBmurc]

Well IMHO we really need GOLD USD to bounce hard off these levels or we go through $1200oz on strong selling pressure we could well see it trend to $1120oz resistance level ..

Funny how on the likes of CNBC Business news we here NOTHING on the PM's anymore .. the markets and debts reach stupifying levels
But just about every day I watch CNBC I hear all about Bitcoin !!!?? and as they say that even bad press is still great advertising..

You do get the feeling the MEDIA powers that be really want the masses to flood their anti-establishment/Market insurance funds into Bitcoin and pals (well while their mates that created it milk every dollar profit)

Then in the backround you have the like of JP Morgan loading up in real silver bullion ....not Bitcoin ...

Even a bond portfolio manager at PIMCO recently called for a sudden $5,000 oz USD gold price revaluation by the Federal Reserve to induce currency inflation to help ease debt and unfunded liability burdens.

https://www.valuewalk.com/2018/02/jpmorgan-buy-silver/



https://www.thenational.ae/business/money/buying-gold-and-dumping-stocks-is-a-no-brainer-this-summer-1.748153

[Aaron]

Thanks for that JB. Nothing drastic happening price wise although it is still down maybe I will get out at 20% profit instead of procrastinating.

[HanSolo]

Well IMHO we really need GOLD USD to bounce hard off these levels or we go through $1200oz on strong selling pressure we could well see it trend to $1120oz resistance level ..

Funny how on the likes of CNBC Business news we here NOTHING on the PM's anymore .. the markets and debts reach stupifying levels
But just about every day I watch CNBC I hear all about Bitcoin !!!?? and as they say that even bad press is still great advertising..

You do get the feeling the MEDIA powers that be really want the masses to flood their anti-establishment/Market insurance funds into Bitcoin and pals (well while their mates that created it milk every dollar profit)

Then in the backround you have the like of JP Morgan loading up in real silver bullion ....not Bitcoin ...

Even a bond portfolio manager at PIMCO recently called for a sudden $5,000 oz USD gold price revaluation by the Federal Reserve to induce currency inflation to help ease debt and unfunded liability burdens.

https://www.valuewalk.com/2018/02/jpmorgan-buy-silver/



https://www.thenational.ae/business/money/buying-gold-and-dumping-stocks-is-a-no-brainer-this-summer-1.748153

I agree with you. Everyday I look at the insane property prices and stupid high PE ratios on stock and now with the trade war with China yet gold price is falling. I think it is sensible to set aside some money and invest in some gold for the long haul especially considering the state of things around the world.

[JBmurc]

http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/prelude-to-a-2008-event-paper-gold-manipulation-intensifies/

[Aaron]

Looks like my gold miners will get hit today.
Don't know enough about what he is discussing in your link there JBmurc. Manipulation of the gold price is a bit of a conspiracy theory isn't it.
I thought that as the US$ gets stronger, gold gets weaker as investors rush to the us$, much like a lot of other currencies around the world at the moment.

That being said although I haven't actually monitored it very closely. The gold mining company share prices seem to have held up pretty well considering golds current slide.

[Blue Horseshoe]

The mining companies have held up because the lower local currency has offset the lower gold price.

[JBmurc]

The mining companies have held up because the lower local currency has offset the lower gold price.

Yes, like the many ASX producers that sell GOLD at AUD $1600oz+ yet all in mining cost averages $1200oz etc so still making a solid profit at these levels

Different story in the US with much tighter margins ...

PGM miners even worse with cost on average higher than spot PGM prices ....

If Gold drops further in USD we could well see some USD producers hit the wall and well mothball operations as they can't just keep going into DEBt for ever.. this will see GOLD production fall etc

[Lego_Man]

Gold's performance in this environment (not exactly raging risk-on) is all the more worrying as it indicates a liquidity squeeze. The way it's trading suggests it's a poor hedge in the medium term for market turmoil. It should be trading UP with EM concerns, not down.

Avoid for now.

[Aaron]

should have listened to lego man. everything is not awesome today.

[Bobdn]

should have listened to lego man. everything is not awesome today.


Silver (ETF and physical) is 3% of my portfolio. I don't expect to make any money out of it, it's a just a little bit of insurance should things get really crazy out there. So like house insurance, I'm hoping I never have to use it. If I'm ever reaching for my Silver Maples or 10oz Perth Mint bars, there's a good chance I'm also stocking up on canned goods and my shares are worthless.

Silver is cheap today but would be a lot cheaper for us if our NZD wasn't so weak at the moment. I'd be tempted to buy some of them fancy new silver krugerrands.

https://gogold.co.nz/InvestSilver.php

[shasta]

I've been accumulating more physical silver, can stay below USD15/oz rest of the year for all i care...

[Bobdn]

I've been accumulating more physical silver, can stay below USD15/oz rest of the year for all i care...

Physical silver is so expensive in NZ - 10% above spot if one is extremely lucky and mostly 15% above spot and no chance of actually selling it at spot. Incredibly difficult to make any money off it, short of a financial apocalypse. I still love my physical silver :)

[airedale]

Last Wednesday in New York the spot price of gold shot up from $1200 to nearly $1300 before settling back to the 50 day moving average of $1200. Now why would anyone {presumably a professional} want to spend $1300 when with patience they could get it for $1200. Any conspiracy theories or inside knowledge welcome.

[Joshuatree]

Testing the mkt and fishing for buyts?

[peat]

Last Wednesday in New York the spot price of gold shot up from $1200 to nearly $1300 before settling back to the 50 day moving average of $1200. Now why would anyone {presumably a professional} want to spend $1300 when with patience they could get it for $1200. Any conspiracy theories or inside knowledge welcome.

My charts dont confirm this, last week had a high of $1214 (using Oanda) CMC Gold (Cash) also has no record of such a spike.

[airedale]

HI Peat, I use www.ino.com (http://www.ino.com) and acrooss the top of the page are the major markets, gold, oil, dow etc. If you click on the chart for gold "one month" you will see it.

[peat]

HI Peat, I use www.ino.com (http://www.ino.com) and acrooss the top of the page are the major markets, gold, oil, dow etc. If you click on the chart for gold "one month" you will see it.

yeh i see that on the ino chart.
i wouldnt read too much into it if it is not shown on other providers charts - i checked Kitco and they have no record of it spiking that high. It could even be a data error.

[airedale]

It will only show on a bar chart showing open/high/low/close for that day. It won't show on a "close only" chart.

[Joshuatree]

Some of my gold stocks the only green ones today in my whole portfolio. EVN and NST just ,atm

[JBmurc]

Some of my gold stocks the only green ones today in my whole portfolio. EVN and NST just ,atm

Yes everything outside the mid-cap to larger Gold miners all my micro-caps flat to down ... just purchased some NCM via CFD .. I really think Gold will break north tonight just far to much risk in the markets falls should continue Asia markets crashing hard currently ... Good old Bitcoin down 5% LOL so much for safe haven

[wizAlvin]

seems to be a double repo buy underway on the weekly XAUUSD

[wizAlvin]

https://snag.gy/qHvSW3.jpg

[airedale]

Unusual! POG and the US$ index are both up about .3% overnight and they have both broken upwards clear of their 50 day moving averages.. normally when one goes up the other will go down.

[Aaron]

Unusual! POG and the US$ index are both up about .3% overnight and they have both broken upwards clear of their 50 day moving averages.. normally when one goes up the other will go down.

This article suggests it is a hedge against the US dollar falling.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/01/gold-buying-by-central-banks-hits-its-highest-level-in-almost-three-years.html
I wish I understood the gold market, without the central banks buying would the price of gold hold up? I should really look at production total etc etc. I have vague memories of someone explaining this to me earlier in the thread probably JB.

Good to see central banks still consider it a currency/financial asset.

[Joshuatree]

Still a store of wealth i guess.
ULTIMATE GUIDE: Understanding the Price of Gold in 2018 - Capital ...https://www.capitalandconflict.com/...in-gold/guide-understanding-price-gold-2018/ (https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=23&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwiQ0uCfjLTeAhWBM48KHWAtAVYQFjAWegQIBBAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.capitalandconflict.com%2Finv esting-in-gold%2Fguide-understanding-price-gold-2018%2F&usg=AOvVaw0aWCLu3cVUnn8z_iNqlptl)

[JBmurc]

This article suggests it is a hedge against the US dollar falling.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/01/gold-buying-by-central-banks-hits-its-highest-level-in-almost-three-years.html
I wish I understood the gold market, without the central banks buying would the price of gold hold up? I should really look at production total etc etc. I have vague memories of someone explaining this to me earlier in the thread probably JB.

Good to see central banks still consider it a currency/financial asset.

Thats cause the central banks are continuing very worried around the fiat credit system that since the breakdown in 07/08 has been fixed by just extenting the credit ...

the Libor rate is close to double last years low

The London Interbank Offered Rate is the average interest rate at which leading banks borrow funds from other banks in the London market. LIBOR is the most widely used global "benchmark" or reference rate for short term interest rates. The current 1 year LIBOR rate as of October 24, 2018 is 3.04%.

And 1-Year US Treasury Yield ends the month at 2.69%, its highest level since January 2008.

Global stocks had second-worst October in at least the last 30 years

Conclusion Global debt is spiralling out of control ... Increasing debt at a more rapid rate than income is not sustainable indefinitely.
just look here in NZ to the household debt to income we have been flatlining at 150-166% since GFC .. so IMHO thats telling me many households are tapped out (or if NZ property starts to fall we could say Trapped)

GOLD / SILVER is anti DEBT

[airedale]

And so it continues POG and US$ index both still heading north above their 50 day moving averages. Although I suspect that the US$ index may have peaked,which bodes well for PMs.


Unusual! POG and the US$ index are both up about .3% overnight and they have both broken upwards clear of their 50 day moving averages.. normally when one goes up the other will go down.

[JBmurc]

And so it continues POG and US$ index both still heading north above their 50 day moving averages. Although I suspect that the US$ index may have peaked,which bodes well for PMs.

Yes and history shows as the first two months of the year are the most bullish for the PM I see $1400us being crossed before March

[Joshuatree]

US$1262 an oz atm.It is now 1% up in one year!. My Goldies are very green in a sea of mainly Red.:blink:

[JBmurc]

Yes the bulk of my portfolio is now in IRC,WWI,EAR ... all gold plays well oversold that should bounce hard during 2019 which I believe will be a very strong yeah for the PMs

[Joshuatree]

US$1262 an oz atm.It is now 1% up in one year!. My Goldies are very green in a sea of mainly Red.:blink:

Im wrong.$1269.07 according to Trading economics was the gold price 1 year ago. US$ 1260.50 atpit, heading there.

[Bjauck]

I see that the NZD price of gold is currently at $1909/Troy Oz which has had a bit of jump Up recently and is up about 3.5% this year. That is still an underperformance compared with NZ shares over the past year. However I was wondering if now is the time to add to my small collection of lovely old sovereigns.

I saw an item recently about the Irish boosting their gold purchases as Brexit looks increasingly dire which may bring about a further collapse of the GBP Sterling. With other issues also facing the EU, with Trump and with the South China Sea issue, are the tailwinds blowing gold upwards? On the other hand are interest rates inevitably going to go higher and put a dampener on the price of gold?

Apologies if if this is the wrong forum for a general discussion on gold.
https://news.sky.com/story/northern-irish-savers-buying-gold-amid-fears-of-sterling-collapse-after-brexit-11593769

[Bobdn]

Gold doing well, silver is doing even better. Because silver (physical and ETF) is only 3 per cent of my portfolio, I never like to see it do well. Almost certainly it means everything else is in the toilet :)

Peter Schiff (who sells metals of course) notes that silver is doing a little better than gold in his latest podcast (21.45 mark)

https://youtu.be/L6iLPS4VF04?t=1307

[Bjauck]

Gold doing well, silver is doing even better. Because silver (physical and ETF) is only 3 per cent of my portfolio, I never like to see it do well. Almost certainly it means everything else is in the toilet :)

Peter Schiff (who sells metals of course) notes that silver is doing a little better than gold in his latest podcast (21.45 mark)

https://youtu.be/L6iLPS4VF04?t=1307 Silver value is more industrially based I guess. Also the trouble with silver is that the premiums seems to be higher. Compared with gold, there also seems to a greater risk of discolouration and other environmental effects which could destroy the higher premiums.

What do you think about platinum (and palladium)? Will platinum continue its downward spiral with Diesel engines on the way out?

[Bobdn]

Yes, silver premiums are huge. Tarnishing never affects value, however: An ounce of silver is an ounce of silver.

I don't know much about platinum. My small PM holding is just a little bit of last resort insurance and I hope I never make any serious money off it :)

[Aaron]

Anyone who has read my posts will know I am a bit of a doom merchant, but I see gold jumped 1% overnight and may crack $1,300.00oz. My gold producers are up 65% over the last couple of years EVN, NCM & NST as well as RMS a leftover from when I got wiped out years ago and it went into the bottom draw. Only small amounts invested as I have no faith in my ability to see into the future and I see gold as a speculation rather than an investment so not willing to invest life changing amounts in gold companies but my theory is that if Central Banks continue with money printing and low interest rates eventually faith in cash will wane and gold will be seen as a more valuable currency alternative. As long as central banks around the globe continue to hold gold it should have some value as a currency. If stock markets continue to fall it won't be long before interest rates fall and more bond buying begins (or some other "innovative" financial engineering i.e. money printing) surely this is positive for gold. I am tempted to become a momentum speculator but know this is dumb as my understanding of the global market for gold, production statistics and actual gold mining is non-existent. What are other peoples views on the price of gold. I am tempted to just dive in and make a significant speculation based on recent success. (I think there is a name for that way of thinking like recency bias or something)

[Aaron]

These are the sort of doom sayers I am reading.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-02/2019-beginning-end

Might be a bit out there but looks like they are trying to use facts to support their arguments.

[airedale]

Hi Aaron, my view is that the US$ index has peaked and is declining. POG is inversely related to the $ index. As the index declines then POG will increase. That makes Aussie gold producers more profitable. I have stayed away from political discussion about market rigging etc. when the $ index increases again then the party is over until the next time.

[JBmurc]

Anyone who has read my posts will know I am a bit of a doom merchant, but I see gold jumped 1% overnight and may crack $1,300.00oz. My gold producers are up 65% over the last couple of years EVN, NCM & NST as well as RMS a leftover from when I got wiped out years ago and it went into the bottom draw. Only small amounts invested as I have no faith in my ability to see into the future and I see gold as a speculation rather than an investment so not willing to invest life changing amounts in gold companies but my theory is that if Central Banks continue with money printing and low interest rates eventually faith in cash will wane and gold will be seen as a more valuable currency alternative. As long as central banks around the globe continue to hold gold it should have some value as a currency. If stock markets continue to fall it won't be long before interest rates fall and more bond buying begins (or some other "innovative" financial engineering i.e. money printing) surely this is positive for gold. I am tempted to become a momentum speculator but know this is dumb as my understanding of the global market for gold, production statistics and actual gold mining is non-existent. What are other peoples views on the price of gold. I am tempted to just dive in and make a significant speculation based on recent success. (I think there is a name for that way of thinking like recency bias or something)

I certainly believe the boom times we have seen in the major ASX Gold producers will feed down to the much unloved micro-cap Gold developers/explorers and new producers ..

we have just seen usually consertive Macquarie Bank sign a 107mill loan agreement with CMM (50mill micro-cap) really BULLISH sign along with the AUD gold price break to new all time interday highs this week

Not that the likes of RMS can't go much higher just that the likes of EAR,IRC,WWI of the market could well muti bag

[minimoke]

Turned myself into a prospector over the last week and been panning for gold on the West Coast. Loads of fun and even came back with some as a souvenir. Its easy to see why people get the gold bug

[Aaron]

Turned myself into a prospector over the last week and been panning for gold on the West Coast. Loads of fun and even came back with some as a souvenir. Its easy to see why people get the gold bug

Sounds like fun but I think I will stick to investing in gold miners. Did you get an ounce? nearly $1,300 US for a weeks work.

[minimoke]

Sounds like fun but I think I will stick to investing in gold miners. Did you get an ounce? nearly $1,300 US for a weeks work.Sadly not an ounce. The potential thought is certainly there. With a bit more practice and better targeted efforts that would be achievable. Might have to plan me a longer trip next time.

[airedale]

I knew an old guy in Cromwell, he used to do a bit of prospecting and on his mantelpiece he had a row of little medicine pill bottles full of gold he had panned or dug.

[JBmurc]

I knew an old guy in Cromwell, he used to do a bit of prospecting and on his mantelpiece he had a row of little medicine pill bottles full of gold he had panned or dug.

Yes certainly good Gold country around here >> I should get me a backpack dredge

[Vagabond47]

I certainly believe the boom times we have seen in the major ASX Gold producers will feed down to the much unloved micro-cap Gold developers/explorers and new producers ..

Might be happening.. BLK currently up 9.1% for the day/ +20% for the last 5 trading days, no news to drive this gain that i'm aware of. (So i'm only down 45% now on the heads.. and 94% on the oppies, might even make it back to even on the heads before easter :) )

[wizAlvin]

ASZ 2019 competition closing in few hours

[Joshuatree]

- China Adds 1,853 Metric Tonnes to "Official" Gold Reserves - (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/china-adds-1-853-metric-tonnes-to-official-gold-reserves.4604236/?post_id=37115316)

[shasta]

My only exposure to gold is with IGO and their 30/70 Tropicana JV with ASX; AGG, approx 150k/oz share of annual production.

Watching GOR as they should be producing in Q2

[yabster]

Have held GOR for many years - once production starts the share price should rerate - some very promising exploration targets (100% owned) also.

[JBmurc]

Greenspan on gold
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cp-ov5T4DbE

Billionare sam zeal first time ever has invested in GOLD
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2019-01-17/sam-zell-says-gold-is-a-good-hedge-video

[Aaron]

Greenspan on gold
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cp-ov5T4DbE

Billionare sam zeal first time ever has invested in GOLD
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2019-01-17/sam-zell-says-gold-is-a-good-hedge-video

Heartening to hear Sam Zell buying gold, although his reasoning is a supply issue with companies buying up each other rather than exploring so an expected slowdown in supply. My reason for buying is an expected end of the financial world as we know it which is more in line with Alan Greenspan, gold is money and it may hold its value better if people ever lose faith in paper dollars. Watched the "Big Short" over the weekend. Being right too early is the same as being wrong.

[Joshuatree]

Breaks through US$1300

PRECIOUS-Gold soars to over 7-month high as dollar falls before Fed meeting (https://www.reuters.com/article/global-precious/precious-gold-soars-to-over-7-month-high-as-dollar-falls-before-fed-meeting-idUSL3N1ZP4BL)

[JBmurc]

Heartening to hear Sam Zell buying gold, although his reasoning is a supply issue with companies buying up each other rather than exploring so an expected slowdown in supply. My reason for buying is an expected end of the financial world as we know it which is more in line with Alan Greenspan, gold is money and it may hold its value better if people ever lose faith in paper dollars. Watched the "Big Short" over the weekend. Being right too early is the same as being wrong.

Yes I've pretty much never stopped holding Gold focus miners in my portfolio since I firat started invested my own funds in the market early 2000's ... so have had many years of being wrong recently but finally last year the interest has finally been starting to come back ..IMHO next several years will be very good ... holding CHN,IRC,EAR,WWI currently

[ynot]

Also had a rough ride with gold, all I now have is EVN. Hopefully onward and upward from here.

[airedale]

I expect there will be a retracement and I see that the futures market is quoting POG at $1278. But will be happy to be proved wrong.

[Aaron]

I expect there will be a retracement and I see that the futures market is quoting POG at $1278. But will be happy to be proved wrong.

Don't follow it that closely but happy days it looks like you were wrong.
I would have thought the Fed statements last night of no interest rates increases and an "ample Balance Sheet" would have meant a fall in gold prices as the stock market shoots away again and all is well. Ample Balance Sheet I think this means QT could be put on hold and QE started up again if asset prices drop. Maybe this would debase currencies again making gold more valuable in theory. I guess I will never know what drives gold prices. Also the Fed might see some economic turbulence ahead, who knows?

Airdale suggested earlier in this thread an inverse relationship with the us$ index. Looking at a chart DXY it took a serious drop last night so maybe this is right although it must only be one of many factors.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy/charts

I have to stop watching these daily moves as my theory is that the current money printing will eventually make gold more valuable relative to fiat currencies which is something that happens over years(decades) not days.

[airedale]

Hi Aaron, you can follow the POG and the US$ index at www.ino.com (http://www.ino.com) and bring up the charts for 1 day up to a year. The over night action shows that the $ index fell .44% and the POG rose .41% to US$ 1319. That is just the daily chart but the yearly chart shows a similar picture.

[Aaron]

We have probably discussed this but I usually need to hear something a few times for it to sink in.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02-15/guess-whos-buying-gold

There are 3,300 tonnes of gold mined each year and another 1,100 recycled. jewellery and to a lesser extent industrial use take up a bit over half with the rest being bars & Coins and ETFs and central banks.
Central Banks 651.5 tonnes most purchased since 1967 this is still only 15% of annual supply.


I haven't reached any conclusions. No western central banks were buying gold, all other countries like Russia probably don't want to rely on the US honouring their treasury debt. Doesn't sound like a new gold standard but gold might become a more valuable currency after the next round of QE further debases currencies worldwide.

[SBQ]

Hi Aaron,

The ZeroHedge article only points out a few aspects on gold's recent behaviour but like most things, there are many many more variables to factor. One being the rise in global population which creates a stable demand for gold. You can forget the volatility in gold and take a more long long term approach which you will see over the several decades, gold basically rises in inline with INFLATION.

I do believe for those who are high net worth with considerable assets, they should have a small position in gold. By default, most do in ways of owning expensive jewelery. It spans across all cultures around the world. But to answer why western central banks don't care about the gold has more to do with macroeconomics and fiat $. The rise of western nations came about by use of fiat currency which is tied to the economic output of the country. The previous economy from developing nations tend to rely on a 'gold standard' where the amount of physical gold held by the central bank would determine the country's currency strength. Which would you pick? If you start looking at the reasons why Bretton Woods formed and why the Gold Standard was abolished.. you'll find it's those nations that were able to elevate their standard of living through fiat currency... What countries that remain on a 'gold standard' or buying large amounts of gold by their central banks had come out at a high standard of living for their country? Even in NZ's case the RBZ had sold it's gold reserve (if I recall correctly) in the 1980s. In fact, physical gold in pure non-jewelry form attracts no GST or real restriction to bring in and out of the country. It's to show that from the NZ central banks point of view, gold serves very little purpose in the NZ currency or monetary system.

[Aaron]

By default, most do in ways of owning expensive jewelery. It spans across all cultures around the world. But to answer why western central banks don't care about the gold has more to do with macroeconomics and fiat $. The rise of western nations came about by use of fiat currency which is tied to the economic output of the country. The previous economy from developing nations tend to rely on a 'gold standard' where the amount of physical gold held by the central bank would determine the country's currency strength. Which would you pick? If you start looking at the reasons why Bretton Woods formed and why the Gold Standard was abolished.. you'll find it's those nations that were able to elevate their standard of living through fiat currency... What countries that remain on a 'gold standard' or buying large amounts of gold by their central banks had come out at a high standard of living for their country? Even in NZ's case the RBZ had sold it's gold reserve (if I recall correctly) in the 1980s. In fact, physical gold in pure non-jewelry form attracts no GST or real restriction to bring in and out of the country. It's to show that from the NZ central banks point of view, gold serves very little purpose in the NZ currency or monetary system.

I agree gold should only be an insurance policy against inflation and the debasement of fiat currencies.

Ben Bernanke says it is not money yet the US treasury holds the largest amount of gold reserves. The biggest holders of gold per a google search.
United States. Tonnes: 8,133.5.
Germany. Tonnes: 3,371.0. ...
Italy. Tonnes: 2,451.8. ...
France. Tonnes: 2,436.0. ...
Russia. Tonnes: 1,909.8. ...
China. Tonnes: 1,842.6. ...
Switzerland. Tonnes: 1,040.0. ...
Japan. Tonnes: 765.2. ...
Bar China and Russia these are all developed nations. They may not be buying but they are not selling either. It must still be considered a currency as long as central banks treat it as such. Although it is probably inconsequential compared to fiat currencies. If central banks start selling I will start selling my gold miners probably at a big loss.

GST is not charged on gold because gold is considered a currency and financial transactions are exempt from GST. (This also applies to silver and platinum)

[SBQ]

GST is not charged on gold because gold is considered a currency and financial transactions are exempt from GST. (This also applies to silver and platinum)

Yes but walking off the airplane there's a $10,000 declaration limit for currency. With physical gold there was no limit (i'm speaking from experience :)

Also you probably wouldn't bother with silver as it takes up too much space to carry on the plane to have a very significant value.

Interesting to know taking gold out of NZ poses no issue.

[Aaron]

Yes but walking off the airplane there's a $10,000 declaration limit for currency. With physical gold there was no limit (i'm speaking from experience :)

Also you probably wouldn't bother with silver as it takes up too much space to carry on the plane to have a very significant value.

Interesting to know taking gold out of NZ poses no issue.

Gold isn't used in day to day transactions so at a guess too many paper dollars going offshore might require them to order more to ensure we don't run out for people going to the dairy for an ice cream. If NZ reserve bank holds no gold I guess you are right they NZ doesn't care.

[peat]

Yes but walking off the airplane there's a $10,000 declaration limit for currency. With physical gold there was no limit (i'm speaking from experience :)


really?
I think you'll find otherwise.

[GTM 3442]

Not exactly gold, but close.

What's lit the rocket under the palladium price in the past six months or so?

[GTM 3442]

Yes but walking off the airplane there's a $10,000 declaration limit for currency. With physical gold there was no limit (i'm speaking from experience :)

Also you probably wouldn't bother with silver as it takes up too much space to carry on the plane to have a very significant value.

Interesting to know taking gold out of NZ poses no issue.

Wouldn't bullion (10-told bars etc) just get tangled up in the "goods" catch-all?


"If you're bringing in more than NZ$700 worth of goods (not including your clothes, jewellery and toiletries), you'll need to declare it as you may have to pay duty fees or GST."

[Aaron]

Gold cracks $1,300 again.

My gold producing companies are doing well on my speculation that gold will be considered a safe alternative in a crazy financial world as long as central banks keep it as a currency. Or possibly a Plan B for central planners if faith is lost in currencies.

My speculation is small as I consider it to be funds I have to accept losing as least half or more of in the event of a company crisis or fall in gold so success to date has not changed my financial well being much, due to the small size of the speculation. Although mentally it has been a great salve as I have missed out on a lot since 2009.

My thoughts now, while accepting it is still a pure speculation as my understanding of gold mining and gold markets supply/demand is non-existent and the price of gold can jump around quite considerably but as I want to get rid of my cash when my latest term deposit matures, do I stop being a pussy and just plough more into gold miners on the hope that my dumb luck continues. I appreciate the answer is no but I am so tempted. This is what you might call emotional speculation rather than reasoned investment. Past success gets translated in my head to future success. I suppose my reasons for speculating on gold haven't changed much and if a recession is coming the reaction from the world central banks might be the straw that breaks the camels back regarding faith in currencies and the ability of central banks to keep things going through low interest rates and excessive debt levels.

FYI results to date
EVN 54% Purchase date 22/08/2016 annualised return roughly divide by 3 equals 18%
NCM 77% 23/12/2014 divide 5 15%
NST 109% 22/08/2016 36%
RMS 137% 02/11/2012 by 7 19%
CVR 0% purchased around 2011 went bust but helped me decide to stick to well established producers rather than further speculation on explorers. I am positive on the price of gold but not the ability to find more of it. Dabbled in MML, SAR, KCN, POT, PGI AYN and others back in 2011/12 but that would have been after getting a diggers & drillers subscription and finding out once more the experts seem to have as much luck as me and if they are doing research it appears to mean squat. I’d rather make my own mistakes. In fact I only hold RMS as it went in the bottom draw after tanking.

Plus I have had some piddly little dividends from EVN, NCM & NST so total returns from these three companies have been good since 2014 . I guess success with NCM caused me to buy EVN & NST to reduce company risk while carrying on speculating. Not sure if I am looking for advice or trying to clarify my thoughts by speaking them aloud. I don’t really like revealing how limited my intelligence is on a public forum but thought it might prevent me from doing something I will later regret.

Writing this has actually helped clarify my thoughts. I think I will risk a bit more but not go all out for the life changing stroke of luck that I would like it to be, but if my speculation is successful it will make some difference to my financial security once sold.

Any views or advice will be gratefully accepted and considered.

[Joshuatree]

Hi Aaron, even conservative Craigs are reccoing having some quality gold producers in ones portfolio atm !! Its a good hedge if/when things go pear shaped etc. Im holding EVN and NST(have held a while) but wouldn't recco buying at these prices, and SLR. Holding companies that produce alot of their gold in aussie is good as the $us is currency used. Working out your exposure that you are comfortable with is important. Mine is currently about 6% of my portfolio plus i have 2 hi risk spekky explorers with a very SMALL amount of punt money just for fun.

[JBmurc]

My leveraged portfolio is mostly made up of micro cap spec gold plays ... I don’t hold anything that doesn,t have at least 200% growth potential in the next 6 months ... also have options which are another leverage .. I wouldn’t recommend my style for 99% if investors but for me it’s worked well

[Aaron]

Thanks for the replies. Jtree I guess I should look at my goldies as a percentage of my total holdings and stop now. JBmurc your style of investing would stop me sleeping at night a wrong call leaves you paying off a loan.
Sadly buying last week would have been the best bet, I see my bigger miners in the top 10 rises in the herald this morning and the price of gold seems to be carrying on its merry way. Maybe I should try a bit of momentum investing.

[Aaron]

Looking at the PE ratios in ASB Securities for NCM NST & EVN 30 to 40 times earnings appears expensive but maybe I need to look at the financial statements and try and understand the business better.

[JBmurc]

Looking at the PE ratios in ASB Securities for NCM NST & EVN 30 to 40 times earnings appears expensive but maybe I need to look at the financial statements and try and understand the business better.

the Blue Chip Gold producers generally command value for Gold in-ground reserves larger the reserves the higher the P/E

Personal I like the upcoming Gold companies that have very low prospective forward P/E like EAR that currently commands a market value of 89mill and going from DFS will have yearly earnings of around 80mill going from DFS AISC and current Gold price

Great to see AUD gold break $1900 I stand by my call of $2000oz AUD gold to be crossed this year

[JBmurc]

Gold on the run can it break $1350 ???

[Joshuatree]

It sure has, nearly $1380, my Goldies ascending daily atm. Dovish fed helping, Risk rising.

NST was $9.96 on the 5th ,now $11.37

[Aaron]

F**k It. Should have bought while I was thinking about it.

Maybe I should throw all reason out the window and try some momentum investing with my speculative bets.

[Joshuatree]

Back under $1400 after running to re $1428. I can imagine this scenario.Trump "Hey you, i feel a tweet coming on set up a trade ,QUICK!"

[Aaron]

Now I have bought in I am set for a loss today. That's the trouble with speculation I should actually try and work out what sort of income I can expect from the companies and base my valuations on something that has involved some thought. The greater fool theory not working for me today. I guess that makes me the greatest fool.

[Aaron]

This should be good for gold demand and hopefully price.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/17/ray-dalio-says-gold-will-be-a-top-investment-during-upcoming-paradigm-shift-for-global-markets.html

Ray Dalio reckons central banks will destroy the value of a dollar. I am in gold miners so carry more risk such as operations risk, the price of oil sky rocketing in the event of a US war with Iran etc etc. Maybe I should be buying some coins.

I still have a large portion of my portfolio in term deposits (waiting for a crash) but need to get serious about putting it into something real and adding a small amount of manageable debt. Sadly with elevated prices I will not get much of a return on any investment but it might be better than cash in the long run. It is really hard to know what to do.

Happy about my gold miner top up today, might break-even on price which is always nice.

I think Bernard Hickey is suggesting a house unless it is financial armageddon in which case will asset prices deflate faster than central banks ability to destroy money. Swings and roundabouts, tough decisions to made and lived with.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/114321627/new-zealands-armourplated-housing-bubble

Also found this but will have to read it at lunchtime, still have to make a dollar.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/paradigm-shifts-ray-dalio/?published=t

[Joshuatree]

6 year high for Gold. And so far some good earnings results from USA of A, Microsoft for one.

$87,000 an oz gold!!!:scared: I confess my eyes glazed over and i didnt watch it all.

https://youtu.be/VMCu9GWpgzg

[Joshuatree]

Looks like some euphoric warning bells are going off.My goldies are extreme skyrocketing , something has to give very soon on this cliff ended roller coaster.

[Aaron]

The Ray Dalio effect. I imagine he is pretty closely followed worldwide. Central banks would have to go back to a gold standard for all that pie in the sky stuff in your youtube link JT. Not happening anytime soon in the western world although if what I read can be believed Russia and China are accumulating it.

As Dalio suggests

"To me, it seems obvious that they have to help the debtors relative to the creditors. At the same time, it appears to me that the forces of easing behind this paradigm (i.e., interest rate cuts and quantitative easing) will have diminishing effects. For these reasons, I believe that monetizations of debt and currency depreciations will eventually pick up, which will reduce the value of money and real returns for creditors and test how far creditors will let central banks go in providing negative real returns before moving into other assets.
To be clear, I am not saying that this shift will happen immediately. I am saying that I think it is approaching and will have a big effect on what the next paradigm will look like."


I have reached a point where I am seriously looking at buying anything to get out of dollars, although NZ dollars should be better than a lot of others, our govt is not as heavily indebted, the reserve bank doesn't practice QE (does it?) and interest rate drops could just be part of the currency wars as well as trickle down economics(pumping assets up). Dare I mention his name but Robert Kiyosaki has been right all along, cash is trash, or will be soon as there seems no other way out of the debt problem according to Dalio other than printing money (monetization of debt) and making it worthless.

Now I wish I had bought a lot more shares in gold producers. This speculation is really tough.

[Joshuatree]

Thanks for sharing. Yeah its tough but having a gold portfolio is a hedge for me and now its paying off big atpit. I really have no idea where this is all going to end for Investors in most assets and equities.

Some smaller goldie developers and producers are lagging the big producers (EVN and NST for mine) that im looking at atm .Cheers and knowing when to get off is the next challenge.:)

[Aaron]

Cheers and knowing when to get off is the next challenge.:)
Could probably use Technical Analysis for that but I suspect if it is the beginning of a paradigm shift then there might be a lot more to go. Although with the price of gold it could drop 2% over night as it seems to be all over the place depending on the latest headline.

[Joshuatree]

AARON, SURELY CASH WILL BE GREAT TO PICK UP ALL THE DISTRESSED DUMPED EQUITIES AND PROPERTY ETC. Whoops sorry about caps.

Meanwhile Gold powering higher. US$1481.26 oz atpit.

[JBmurc]

Great money to be made in the Micro-jnr caps on the ASX

One has to understand ..

Fact#1 Austrialia is the biggest exporter of Gold in the world (China producers more but doesn't export any)

Fact#2 Austrialia reached peak Gold production in 2018fy it is now going to see downtrending gold production as exploration/investment in the prior 6x years of the gold bear market was much less and the timeframes to take greenfields to producing mine takes several years+.. this is a cycle going back to the 70's where peak gold production is always meet by higher Gold prices as demand outstrips the falling production numbers = more investment

Fact#3 Profit margins for AUD Gold producers have never been higher as even back when AUD reached its last short timeframe peak 2011 $1800oz etc energy costs were much the same as today $1.50lt Diesel price in the Gold fields WA- (Oil prices where much higher as was the AUD/USD) now we have $2170oz and slowing increasing month on month $2500oz likely during 2020

Fact#4 we are in the "INVESTMENT CYCLE" for the ASX Gold sector which means huge amounts of funds are being raised and invested into the sector NST annouced a $75mill AUD in exploration funding for 2020 all ASX Gold focused miners are doing the same ..

Fact#5 Many micro-caps and still below IPO prices and haven't followed the AUD Gold price higher like the majors have as of yet
EV/gold resources are a joke in many cases ... this isn't going to last ...

Fact#6 the ASX hot money always loves a story ... since I've been trading I have seen the RARE earth boom , Shale gas BOOM, Battery metals BOOM , Silver BOOM , Vanadium BOOM , Weed BOOM, Crypto company BOOM etc etc valuations go nuts when the sector is hot Billions of trading funds hunt for the next big story and decent news and they run hard ... IMHO the small end of town ASX Gold sector is going be bigger than all of them as Australia ASX is the home of some of the best Gold prospects in the world as too why its the second largest Gold Producer

I've been set for this run for many years aways holding a good part of the portfolio in the micro-cap Gold sector(getting badly burnt during the crash) ....finally the wait is nearly over bring on 2020/21 ... I'm confident I'll be semi-retired next few years or least very close ... just another million or so in free capital will do

Interested how many other ST are keen to get a few 10+ baggers on their books

[yabster]

Hi JB

Gor has been my shining light re goldies been in it from the EKM days -thanks to "Steve Fleming" -wish that guy came back!

Also have TRY -dog
MEI is worth a look- was in it for the cobalt but they may have something large on their hands in Brazil- Andrew Trunks is the MD

[Aaron]

AARON, SURELY CASH WILL BE GREAT TO PICK UP ALL THE DISTRESSED DUMPED EQUITIES AND PROPERTY ETC. Whoops sorry about caps.

Meanwhile Gold powering higher. US$1481.26 oz atpit.

Still have cash but am unsure there will ever be a huge crash in my lifetime. I only want to use up cash so that I don't hold any and not take on any significant debt for now.

With interest rates so low if there is ever a crash I can borrow to buy shares or property and the dividends/rents can take care of the loan repayments.

And now to share a little happiness in these gloomy times as of today my gold producers have gained roughly 20% since the 30 June 2019 and I even topped up some NCM in June (Still not life changing amounts though). I appreciate that my success with gold miners(producers) can change quickly but am happy to let it ride for now. My gold producers are fast becoming a significant portion of my all too small investment portfolio.

Probably be stuck around 5th place in the Aussie competition for a while and will require some big changes to catch Toulouse at number 1 before year end.

OCR cut today in NZ, global QE on its way soon, still all positive for gold especially if anyone else loses faith in the idea of money.
Same old same old from central banks while the global economy slows. No idea what will happen but everyone expects central banks to sort it out and that means more funny money, more debt, low interest rates, asset purchases etc etc and high asset prices.

China and USA might succeed in destroying their currencies with their currency wars as it is now a global race to the bottom and the NZ Central bank ensured the NZ dollar doesn’t strengthen globally with today’s cut.

I will admit it is easier holding cash when the S&P 500 dropped nearly 3% in one day although it has bounced back. This may be a good time to be in cash for all I know but I am pretty certain long term it won’t be good.

[JBmurc]

Hi JB

Gor has been my shining light re goldies been in it from the EKM days -thanks to "Steve Fleming" -wish that guy came back!

Also have TRY -dog
MEI is worth a look- was in it for the cobalt but they may have something large on their hands in Brazil- Andrew Trunks is the MD

Yes GOR done very well if you want a repeat might well have it in HMX as it has the mgmt that managed GOR to the major successive company making Gold deposit --

Yes Tunks was a director at WWI for awhile I have talked with him a few times hopefully he has found a company maker with MEI I see the SP has been doing well up 200%+ recently

[Aaron]

Here is why gold is probably going higher.
https://www.msn.com/en-nz/money/finance/rbnz-eyes-unconventional-options/ar-AAFtODn?ocid=spartandhp

Sounds like Adrian Orr is ready to go full retard

USA's next round of QE not far away.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-07/when-you-get-email-fed-it-may-be-time-panic

Central banks can only keep digging a hole for themselves(and all the rest of us). I guess they are hoping for inflation to debase the currencies and clear the debts but their policies seem to be putting more and more wealth and income in fewer and fewer hands which I wouldn't think would boost inflation. It is trickle down economics and the evidence since the 1980s seems to be you need an huge torrent of wealth to the top for some to trickle down and it is total bull****.

No one in power is likely to change anything as it is now a fragile system and they aren't doing too badly themselves. Political change and populism will be the next step if history is any indication. Shutting the next generation out of the housing market doesn't sound like the way to prosperity for the nation as a whole but that is what the central bank is partly doing. I do still read a lot of stories about young people buying houses. I guess a generation or so ago it wasn't front page news.
I would be more angry except I assume the rate cut is to help our exporters who actually do provide wealth for society.

If/when it all finally blows up a dollar today will be worth a lot less the only question is whether there will be a crash in asset prices first. I am not ready to take that risk as it appears central banks will go all out before allowing over extended borrowers to default. Gold at $1,500 this morning over 7% rise in the last 30 days. I still have no understanding of the gold market and global production versus global demand etc etc but dumb luck is working well for me at the moment. Just sorry I didn't go full retard and go all in on gold miners and borrow against the house and margin lending to amplify the gains, I would be a lot closer to retirement if I had. Sadly I am a conservative investor.

[JBmurc]

really like Michael Pento view watch from 13min mark ... basically all central banks are hoping to ease GFC2.0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=24wsVVo_g-I

[Bjauck]

Here is why gold is probably going higher.
https://www.msn.com/en-nz/money/finance/rbnz-eyes-unconventional-options/ar-AAFtODn?ocid=spartandhp

Sounds like Adrian Orr is ready to go full retard

USA's next round of QE not far away.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-07/when-you-get-email-fed-it-may-be-time-panic

Central banks can only keep digging a hole for themselves(and all the rest of us). I guess they are hoping for inflation to debase the currencies and clear the debts but their policies seem to be putting more and more wealth and income in fewer and fewer hands which I wouldn't think would boost inflation. It is trickle down economics and the evidence since the 1980s seems to be you need an huge torrent of wealth to the top for some to trickle down and it is total bull****.

No one in power is likely to change anything as it is now a fragile system and they aren't doing too badly themselves. Political change and populism will be the next step if history is any indication. Shutting the next generation out of the housing market doesn't sound like the way to prosperity for the nation as a whole but that is what the central bank is partly doing. I do still read a lot of stories about young people buying houses. I guess a generation or so ago it wasn't front page news.
I would be more angry except I assume the rate cut is to help our exporters who actually do provide wealth for society.

If/when it all finally blows up a dollar today will be worth a lot less the only question is whether there will be a crash in asset prices first. I am not ready to take that risk as it appears central banks will go all out before allowing over extended borrowers to default. Gold at $1,500 this morning over 7% rise in the last 30 days. I still have no understanding of the gold market and global production versus global demand etc etc but dumb luck is working well for me at the moment. Just sorry I didn't go full retard and go all in on gold miners and borrow against the house and margin lending to amplify the gains, I would be a lot closer to retirement if I had. Sadly I am a conservative investor.
It does seem like we have built ourselves an inflated house of cards. None more so than residential housing. Precious metals do seem to be increasingly the safe haven as opposed to holding increasingly precarious inflated assets and fixed interest.

However is even gold an inflated asset?

[Aaron]

really like Michael Pento view watch from 13min mark ... basically all central banks are hoping to ease GFC2.0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=24wsVVo_g-I

Stagflation and a return to the 70s?? Not so keen on Max Keiser, a bit over the top for my liking.

[Aaron]

It does seem like we have built ourselves an inflated house of cards. None more so than residential housing. Precious metals do seem to be increasingly the safe haven as opposed to holding increasingly precarious inflated assets and fixed interest.

However is even gold an inflated asset?

Is gold an asset?? It doesn't provide an income stream. Traditionally it has been a store of value but like money if no one believes or has faith in gold it has little value.

I guess if it is accepted as a form of currency, it is not being brought out of the ground at a rate fast enough to keep up with the production of fiat currencies so logically gold gains value compared to the other currencies.

Ideally I will get a chance to invest in land or companies that provide a decent yield, but prices will have to drop first and that means fighting the fed (establishment/the man) so to speak which has been unsuccessful to date. Will keep looking for something to get rid of my cash on but nothing exciting at this stage.

[JBmurc]

Stagflation and a return to the 70s?? Not so keen on Max Keiser, a bit over the top for my liking.

Yes he is way over the top but Vs many so-called experts he's been more right than most of them put together .. wished I listen to his call on BTC @$1 ...

I more so follow M.Pento viewpoint ... lowering rates to 0% is just madness

[JBmurc]

Is gold an asset?? It doesn't provide an income stream. Traditionally it has been a store of value but like money if no one believes or has faith in gold it has little value.

I guess if it is accepted as a form of currency, it is not being brought out of the ground at a rate fast enough to keep up with the production of fiat currencies so logically gold gains value compared to the other currencies.

Ideally I will get a chance to invest in land or companies that provide a decent yield, but prices will have to drop first and that means fighting the fed (establishment/the man) so to speak which has been unsuccessful to date. Will keep looking for something to get rid of my cash on but nothing exciting at this stage.

How long have you been sitting on the sidelines again ??

[Bjauck]

Is gold an asset?? It doesn't provide an income stream. Traditionally it has been a store of value but like money if no one believes or has faith in gold it has little value.

I guess if it is accepted as a form of currency, it is not being brought out of the ground at a rate fast enough to keep up with the production of fiat currencies so logically gold gains value compared to the other currencies.

Ideally I will get a chance to invest in land or companies that provide a decent yield, but prices will have to drop first and that means fighting the fed (establishment/the man) so to speak which has been unsuccessful to date. Will keep looking for something to get rid of my cash on but nothing exciting at this stage.

It is difficult to know where to place one's savings at the moment.

I guess it is the purchasing power value of gold that is the key measure. Both land and gold have a finite supply (until such time that alchemy can find a way of producing gold cost effectively.) The Gold/Ave US Home value ratio is another gauge
http://danielamerman.com/va/GHratio.html

Do assets need to provide an income stream? Other countries levy tax on realised asset value appreciation whether or not income is produced. Precious metals may or may not be exempt from CGT. Of course in NZ, owner occupied housing produces no taxable income or taxable capital gain yet it has most definitely been an appreciating asset - often the de facto pension fund - for many people. Likewise investor real estate sometimes produces no net income after expenses are deducted, yet it is the main repository for much of NZ Household wealth with the expectation of capital gains or conservation of value invested at the least.

[Aaron]

How long have you been sitting on the sidelines again ??

Long enough to wait another year or two so I am not doing my usual buy high sell low. If I was more ballsy the recent surge in gold would have made a big impact on my financial wellbeing.

[Aaron]

Do assets need to provide an income stream? Other countries levy tax on realised asset value appreciation whether or not income is produced. Precious metals may or may not be exempt from CGT. Of course in NZ, owner occupied housing produces no taxable income or taxable capital gain yet it has most definitely been an appreciating asset - often the de facto pension fund - for many people. Likewise investor real estate sometimes produces no net income after expenses are deducted, yet it is the main repository for much of NZ Household wealth with the expectation of capital gains or conservation of value invested at the least.

Do assets need to provide an income stream? What a question, only in this day and age would it be a valid one, in my opinion.
A house may not provide an income stream but you would be paying rent if you didn’t have one.

A good definition of an asset is something that puts money in your pocket. This should be from providing a good or service of value to society. Such as renting accommodation.

Inflation (Capital gain) is a goal of central banks, an economic theory that we are better off with the price of everything increasing each year. In theory if rents, wages and prices all rise together it won’t make much difference and will help out people borrowing money. Inflation destroys the value of a dollar and if you aren’t compensated with an interest rate(yield) at least equal to the rate of inflation you are losing money.

The problem since 2009 is we have had massive inflation but only in asset prices, income has become almost a secondary consideration.
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/inflation-calculator

Per the reserve banks own calculations since 2009 Q4 to 2019 Q1 annual inflation has been as follows.

The bull**** CPI figure 1.6% or Wages 2.7% and Housing 6% when broken down.

The game is you buy a house that increases faster than wages and average inflation and what inflation you do get helps to clear the mortgage as the mortgage is valued in yesterday’s dollars which are in theory worth 1.6% less each year and you get a 6% tax free capital gain each year (4.4% in real terms).
I suspect the focus of a lot of property investors is capital gain rather than rental income from providing accommodation (and why not). Possibly that is why govt regulation has been required to force them to provide warmer healthier homes.

If we had price stability instead of targeted inflation all the negatively geared property investors would just be losing money instead of looking like financial geniuses.

Central bankers can’t stop the game now as all the geniuses will look like morons if it collapses. Sadly they are robbing savers with their push for inflation and suppressed interest rates and savers will also lose if it all falls over as they are unsecured creditors of the banks. You are penalised for saving and put yourself in a weaker and weaker position by depositing money in the bank. Young people saving a deposit to buy a house will see rises of 6.0% a year in housing while they get less than 1% interest on their savings. If house prices collapse, there is a good chance they will lose a chunk of their savings before they can benefit.

Sorry started rambling again and got of track. In my opinion yes an asset needs to provide an income stream or a financial benefit. How would you value an investment without a rate of return. Only in todays f**ked up world where we even have negative interest rates could a question like this be asked.

So ultimately you need to find a business or property that provides valuable goods or services to society that provides a decent income stream/yield/return on investment for the capital invested.

Currently you just need to buy a house and wait and this is not likely to change anytime soon.

[Aaron]

Here's the words of our esteemed reserve bank governor.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12256731

A quote from the article.

The Reserve Bank estimated the average saver would be down around $10 a week but the average borrower would gain about $40 a week, he said.
"So there's a four-to-one gearing ratio there to say there will be an increase in aggregate demand. Not a reduction."

Orr described the belief that higher rates automatically translated to higher real returns as an illusion.
"You have to remember that the single biggest destroyer of savings is inflation. So it is quite ironic that we've now got stable inflation and this is the criticism," he said.


I guess that makes the NZ reserve bank the single biggest destroyer of savings in NZ by his own admission. We've now got stable inflation???? Over the last year maybe, what about the last decade?

https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/inflation-calculator

[Bjauck]

Do assets need to provide an income stream? What a question, only in this day and age would it be a valid one, in my opinion.
A house may not provide an income stream but you would be paying rent if you didn’t have one.

A good definition of an asset is something that puts money in your pocket. This should be from providing a good or service of value to society. Such as renting accommodation.
....

Sorry started rambling again and got of track. In my opinion yes an asset needs to provide an income stream or a financial benefit. How would you value an investment without a rate of return. Only in todays f**ked up world where we even have negative interest rates could a question like this be asked.

So ultimately you need to find a business or property that provides valuable goods or services to society that provides a decent income stream/yield/return on investment for the capital invested.

Currently you just need to buy a house and wait and this is not likely to change anytime soon.

Interesting topic and relevant too for a thread on gold!

I don't agree with your requirement that an asset needs to provide income. There are various types of assets. Some assets are held with the expectation of deferred benefit. Through the ages gold and other items have been desired and treated as valuable assets. Today's land bankers would also treat as assets their undeveloped land even though it would actually be held at a loss each year. They hold with the hope that they will be able to sell at a capital gain. Likewise investors in gold hope their asset will eventually be sold with a capital gain.

Of course, you also need to have assets or employment that provide an income from which your daily living expenses can be met to enable you have the luxury of owning assets that do not provide actual (as opposed to imputed) regular income and provide gains only when the asset is sold.

NZ Owner occupied houses have imputed income (untaxed) and capital gains (untaxed) so they have been very good assets for those who could afford ownership and for whom ownership was suitable.

[digger]

I think that the last days posters are so off beam as to why we are in a gold rally I thought I would take on the arrogant position of putting you on track. In short it is the big issues and not the small details. All the last posters are saying have been around for a long time and gold did not rally. It is heading up now because of the China ---Us economic war. China had some hope of replacing the US as the reserve curriency---or at least an alternative reserve currency. The trade war has stuffed that up for China,and now even more so with China lowering the value of their currency.
So in an obvoius way China and to an almost equal extent Russia can now only turn to gold as a value against the US dollar. Gold has gone up as the trade and currency war widens.
amen

[Aaron]

I think that the last days posters are so off beam as to why we are in a gold rally I thought I would take on the arrogant position of putting you on track. In short it is the big issues and not the small details. All the last posters are saying have been around for a long time and gold did not rally. It is heading up now because of the China ---Us economic war. China had some hope of replacing the US as the reserve curriency---or at least an alternative reserve currency. The trade war has stuffed that up for China,and now even more so with China lowering the value of their currency.
So in an obvoius way China and to an almost equal extent Russia can now only turn to gold as a value against the US dollar. Gold has gone up as the trade and currency war widens.
amen
Sounds reasonable, no point in holding US debt if you are having economic conflicts with them. Gold is seen as a safe haven in times of conflict.

You don't think Ray Dalio suggesting a paradigm shift and having some gold as an insurance policy would have helped. I guess we would need to know who is buying gold to understand why they are buying it. I don't think it is the end of days, but something needs to change or we just get more of the same which at some point becomes farcical. For example negative interest rates seem nuts to me.

[FXTrader]

Personally I've had gold since I got very concerned about the world in 2007. It been 10% of my investment portfolio ever since (other than getting to 15% up to 2011), and in NZD terms its risen 6% p.a. and provided me with a hell of alot of comfort over those years, indeed as it is again currently as those concerns come back. I have plenty of income earning investments and gold sits amongst that mix of investments doing an important job

[airedale]

There are many views on buying or avoiding gold or gold stocks. People have written hundreds of books about it. I went in to the ASX competition on this site with the view that the US$ index will peak this year. When that index decreases then gold will increase. I think that it has already started to happen. So far my gold picks are up by 39.5%, 106%, and 52%. My other 2 picks are not gold stocks but one is an explorer with nickel and gold prospects. I am still hoping to catch Toulouse.

[Aaron]

I think that the last days posters are so off beam as to why we are in a gold rally I thought I would take on the arrogant position of putting you on track. In short it is the big issues and not the small details. All the last posters are saying have been around for a long time and gold did not rally. It is heading up now because of the China ---Us economic war. China had some hope of replacing the US as the reserve curriency---or at least an alternative reserve currency. The trade war has stuffed that up for China,and now even more so with China lowering the value of their currency.
So in an obvoius way China and to an almost equal extent Russia can now only turn to gold as a value against the US dollar. Gold has gone up as the trade and currency war widens.
amen

Possibly this is why gold has some value.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-10/denmarks-3rd-largest-bank-now-paying-people-take-out-mortgage

If currency not only has no value it becomes a liability as when you hold it you have to pay for the privilege. A 4% dividend yield on the Port of Napier IPO doesn't seem too expensive if this is the way the world is going.

[airedale]

Possibly this is why gold has some value.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-10/denmarks-3rd-largest-bank-now-paying-people-take-out-mortgage

If currency not only has no value it becomes a liability as when you hold it you have to pay for the privilege. A 4% dividend yield on the Port of Napier IPO doesn't seem too expensive if this is the way the world is going.

Hi Aaron, that news item from Denmark is bizarre.

[Joshuatree]

Nothing rotten in Denmark:confused::D

"Jyske Bank said this week (https://www.jyskebank.dk/bolig/nyheder/realkredit-med-negativ-rente)that customers would now be able to take out a 10-year fixed-rate mortgage with an interest rate of -0.5%, meaning customers will pay back less than the amount they borrowed, or precisely what we said would happen in our 2016 preview of the dystopian future.






What this means is that if you buy a house for $1 million and pay off your mortgage in full in 10 years, you would pay the bank back only $995,000. No mortgage payments would be due between the purchase and payoff date, so effectively a borrower only has to repay principal... with a small discount, guaranteeing that the bank loses money on the loan."

[Aaron]

Hi Aaron, that news item from Denmark is bizarre.

It is bizarre but shouldn't be a surprise, JBMurc has mentioned many times the large amount of negative yielding debt in the world today.

I personally think it is crazy but it is the direction we are heading in. Gold might become more valuable once storage costs match the interest you pay to the bank on your savings.

I personally have to rethink my 7%-8% net before tax hurdle rate on investment as it prices me out of all the investment markets. If only I had loaded up on Vector at a 10% dividend yield.

Also with Zero Hedge I would always try and confirm the story somewhere else first if I was relying on it.

[JBmurc]

It is bizarre but shouldn't be a surprise, JBMurc has mentioned many times the large amount of negative yielding debt in the world today.

I personally think it is crazy but it is the direction we are heading in. Gold might become more valuable once storage costs match the interest you pay to the bank on your savings.

I personally have to rethink my 7%-8% net before tax hurdle rate on investment as it prices me out of all the investment markets. If only I had loaded up on Vector at a 10% dividend yield.


Also with Zero Hedge I would always try and confirm the story somewhere else first if I was relying on it.

well you don't have to have it in storage just like you don't have to pay a broker to invest your funds in the market...but personally think
buying Gold Plays on the ASX to be the best short term trade ... CWX-HMX-EAR-AMG-WWI my higher risk but high return trades in play currently also looking to enter a nickel company on the ASX

[airedale]

Hi JB, check out RXL Rox Resources. Gold explorer with nickel prospects as well.

https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/rxl.asx-6A924386/


(https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/rxl.asx-6A924386/)

[JBmurc]

Hi JB, check out RXL Rox Resources. Gold explorer with nickel prospects as well.

https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/rxl.asx-6A924386/


(https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/rxl.asx-6A924386/)

Yes was running the ruler over them today .. had 45k AUD to re-invest ... ended up putting more into BLU but the bulk back into CHN
but could well be buying RXL tomorrow if I exit 9SP etc ..

Really great time to be in the micro-end of the ASX another good day for my portfolio some $40k AUD up in the last few trading days

[Aaron]

I guess this means gold is not a contrarian investment anymore.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-20/buy-gold-at-any-level-mobius-says-as-central-banks-cut-rates

Gold at any price but only up to 10% of your portfolio. He is right that the miners are another investment altogether not the same as buying physical gold but it is easier for me buying miners as I have never got around to going to Auckland and buying some gold coins.

[JBmurc]

Activity is heating up in WAs mid-tier gold sector with Bill Beaments Northern Star Resources said to be on the verge of making a bid for Echo Resources and Chinas Zhaojin International Mining

disc-holding EAR and wishing I purchased more last week arrghhh!!!

[Ninefingers]

Activity is heating up in WAs mid-tier gold sector with Bill Beaments Northern Star Resources said to be on the verge of making a bid for Echo Resources and Chinas Zhaojin International Mining

disc-holding EAR and wishing I purchased more last week arrghhh!!!

I've been watching HMX for a little while, they've got a nice patch of dirt next door. Hard to decide whether to split my "gold" money up and take some from AMG and put some in HMX.

[JBmurc]

I've been watching HMX for a little while, they've got a nice patch of dirt next door. Hard to decide whether to split my "gold" money up and take some from AMG and put some in HMX.

Yeah hasn't AMG been a dog one of my biggest holdings as i keep taking profits and thinking AMG will catch a bid but sadly AMG just hasn't given the market what we need which is deep drilling results to test for the major conductor we hope is their full of au-cu-co etc

Yes HMX great investment great value after placement was always going come back to 3c+ ... with the likely T/O of EAR(by NST) ...HMX will be the prime explorer right next door to the plant that NST will likely own... now NST likes to keep its fingers in many pies YRL case in point in the same area with NST IPO a 15% holding ... but nil holding in HMX yet(as HMX only recent secured the prime Bronzewing south tenements) .. HMX Mgmt are top class ex. founders leaders of exploration team for GOR ..

Another couple I believe anyone that should interest those keen on muti-bagger plays in the sector .. CWX + WWI I hold both and continue to build sizeable positions

[Aaron]

Has the pick up in gold prices had its day?

As mentioned earlier I am speculating on the price of gold mining companies based on very little information and a lot of ignorance.

I have got lucky and enjoyed some good gains but appreciate they can disappear just as quickly.

Does anyone have some basic TA indicators to decide when the price signals are telling you to get out. How about when the share price goes through the moving average. Using the charts on ASB securities 30days is too wimpy 180 days (max) sees me losing about 20% then selling. I think I will go with 180 days.

[JBmurc]

Has the pick up in gold prices had its day?

As mentioned earlier I am speculating on the price of gold mining companies based on very little information and a lot of ignorance.

I have got lucky and enjoyed some good gains but appreciate they can disappear just as quickly.

Does anyone have some basic TA indicators to decide when the price signals are telling you to get out. How about when the share price goes through the moving average. Using the charts on ASB securities 30days is too wimpy 180 days (max) sees me losing about 20% then selling. I think I will go with 180 days.

Well it's not luck if you believe we have systematic credit risks in the financial markets ... which pretty much everything fundamentally historically is pointing too>>


then you have GOLD which going from history doesn't have short blip Bull Markets but long 9yr+ runs(over the last 100yrs etc) ... and we are what 1yr into the new
"Gold Bull" .

So kick back and follow your MA's shorter terms if your swing trading ... longer 180 for stronger trends

Personal 2020 will be brilliant for those with Gold/Silver investments .. diverse your portfolio micro cap + Jnr Cap +Large cap + Bullion

[Aaron]

Cheers JB
That is the sort of reassurance I need. Negative interest rates and endless money printing make currencies worthless/meaningless but only once the public loses faith.

Not sure about micro caps with my level of knowledge and effort but wouldn't mind holding some actual coins. Might get down to Auckland one day and do it.

[Vagabond47]

Cheers JB
That is the sort of reassurance I need. Negative interest rates and endless money printing make currencies worthless/meaningless but only once the public loses faith.

Not sure about micro caps with my level of knowledge and effort but wouldn't mind holding some actual coins. Might get down to Auckland one day and do it.

I'm lucky enough to work not far from NZ gold merchants (gogold.co.nz) , so signed up online and made my first purchase of physical gold a while ago. Dropped down and picked it up, and intend to by an ounce or two a month for the rest of the year. Also discovered a 1oz gold coin makes a great card protector while playing poker with the boys.. it seems to be a chip magnet, cleaned up last time we played. :)

My microcap gold mining plays haven't worked out so well, but they were the first stocks I ever purchased directly, and my research was weak..

[JBmurc]

Cheers JB
That is the sort of reassurance I need. Negative interest rates and endless money printing make currencies worthless/meaningless but only once the public loses faith.

Not sure about micro caps with my level of knowledge and effort but wouldn't mind holding some actual coins. Might get down to Auckland one day and do it.

Micro-caps sub 50mill AUD aren't too bad as long as they have a good cash balance if stressed about studying the market 24/7(Like I do:) ... the likes of CHN a great Gold-Ni explorer
49mill market value Vs CHN's 33mill in cash + investments .... 90%+ of micro/nano cap fail from poor cash mgmt .. and small startup producers many hit the wall as too why I don't generally don't hold into production but rather wait for solid Qtr reports of fat profits

[Aaron]

Some confirmation bias for me. Although I think he is a libertarian so not sure we would agree on much else.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/115508374/the-ponzi-scheme-that-underpins-our-economy-cannot-go-on-forever

The only thing he doesn't seem to realise in the article is that interest rates are never going up in a meaningful way, at least probably not in my lifetime and although it can't go on forever Japan has shown that it can go on for many decades and still continues on in the land of the rising sun. If it were up to the markets people with money to lend would not be accepting current interest rates and definitely not negative rates.

[JBmurc]

Some confirmation bias for me. Although I think he is a libertarian so not sure we would agree on much else.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/115508374/the-ponzi-scheme-that-underpins-our-economy-cannot-go-on-forever

The only thing he doesn't seem to realise in the article is that interest rates are never going up in a meaningful way, at least probably not in my lifetime and although it can't go on forever Japan has shown that it can go on for many decades and still continues on in the land of the rising sun. If it were up to the markets people with money to lend would not be accepting current interest rates and definitely not negative rates.

Yes completely agree with the article ... the Cheap DEBT party will end with one hell of a hangover

[Aaron]

Not really a TA man but not many would argue that going against the trend for more speculative investments is a bad idea.

Still looks like economic growth may be slowing (maybe reading too much zero hedge), recession possible, if it causes a financial crisis it would be good for gold price.

Using Yahoo Finance, moving average, rsi, macd(need to check what this represents) all looking like the trend is heading down. Some good gains I would like to keep on my gold producers. Time to sell??

[airedale]

If you think that the US$ index is going to go up, that is negative for gold, but if you think that the US$ index is about to go down then that is positive for gold.

[airedale]

POG up 1% and breaking above $US 1600/oz, despite US$ index also strengthening.

[Joshuatree]

Yeah what to believe eh booming mkts or what? US$1612/oz atm a 7 year high.Some of my goldies near /at highs too.

[airedale]

$1619 this morning.Must be due for a healthy pull back soon.

[Joshuatree]

Incredible 9% drop to $1473 oz, insanity.

[airedale]

Hi,JT, I watch pog on ino.com and dont see that drop.$1643 and a strong finish in to the weekend.

[jonu]

Incredible 9% drop to $1473 oz, insanity.

Are you sure you were'nt suffering the after effects of the night before?

[Bjauck]

Incredible 9% drop to $1473 oz, insanity. Just checked the NZD price - $2600/tr.oz. Higher than the Friday closing and higher than the September 2019 NZD record.

[Joshuatree]

Yeah flight to safety! up 12.6% today US$186 to $1656 oz.

[jonu]

Yeah flight to safety! up 12.6% today US$186 to $1656 oz.

Are you still claiming that sometime on Sunday gold was trading at 1473 an ounce?

[cyclist]

Are you still claiming that sometime on Sunday gold was trading at 1473 an ounce?

Actually, it is showing up on the Kitco 24 hour chart. I suspect a data glitch rather than a real change - I don't think it was even trading when JT noted the glitch over the weekend.

[Joshuatree]

Yeah im basing it on trading economics .com. Thanks cyclist that makes sense.

[JBmurc]

AUD Gold up a new record $2555.61oz +76.73 3.10% just vertical take-off

Only wish my micro-cap Goldies would get some love .. seems ASX market only interested in certain companies esp. the producers .. fact is value metrics are just insane for companies with large Gold resources + great exploration results worth less than many of the similar companies commanded during the mid 2000"s when AUD Gold was only $600oz

[SPARKY]

Back on the forum after several years. Earthquake and several house shifts later
I tracked gold pre $300 days, and decided to get in at $300 but being busy or slack didn't do anything till $800 then got stitched up by a gold bullion con and BMA which folded. But thats history. I feel things are about to get rather nasty and gold may be the place to be so had a little punt on KZR just before SPROTT bought in, 24c to 65c in a few weeks. Also have BLK and PNR.
GOOD LUCK FOR THE FUTURE ALL I think we are going to need it.
cheers
SPARKY

[JBmurc]

Back on the forum after several years. Earthquake and several house shifts later
I tracked gold pre $300 days, and decided to get in at $300 but being busy or slack didn't do anything till $800 then got stitched up by a gold bullion con and BMA which folded. But thats history. I feel things are about to get rather nasty and gold may be the place to be so had a little punt on KZR just before SPROTT bought in, 24c to 65c in a few weeks. Also have BLK and PNR.
GOOD LUCK FOR THE FUTURE ALL I think we are going to need it.
cheers
SPARKY

Yes Sparky we live in very interesting times-- so many bubbles -- upside down economics-- record low interest rates + Neg rates .. Growing Cancer rates + Coronavirus --we are on the knife edge so issues .. seems to be building to a MAJOR Blow-off

Personal I think Gold will blow $2000oz but who knows if investors will be jumping into the market ??? as to the FEAR of risk of the equity markets aka paper assets

[Aaron]

AUD Gold up a new record $2555.61oz +76.73 3.10% just vertical take-off

Only wish my micro-cap Goldies would get some love .. seems ASX market only interested in certain companies esp. the producers .. fact is value metrics are just insane for companies with large Gold resources + great exploration results worth less than many of the similar companies commanded during the mid 2000"s when AUD Gold was only $600oz

My producers not doing as well as expected today. Oil still down, gold up, should be good for business. A couple more down days and we should get another round of currency debasement which strengthens the argument for gold. negative interest rates will also improve golds appeal as a store of value as fiat currency no longer has that characteristic

[JBmurc]

My producers not doing as well as expected today. Oil still down, gold up, should be good for business. A couple more down days and we should get another round of currency debasement which strengthens the argument for gold. negative interest rates will also improve golds appeal as a store of value as fiat currency no longer has that characteristic

Yes still I'm confident the trend will see the Gold plays continue to move higher .. next Qtr results for many will impressive and should kick the SP much higher

[Bjauck]

Yes Sparky we live in very interesting times-- so many bubbles -- upside down economics-- record low interest rates + Neg rates .. Growing Cancer rates + Coronavirus --we are on the knife edge so issues .. seems to be building to a MAJOR Blow-off

Personal I think Gold will blow $2000oz but who knows if investors will be jumping into the market ??? as to the FEAR of risk of the equity markets aka paper assets
Do you think that actual gold bullion/coins is the best way to invest in gold as opposed to equity in producers?
I certainly have been gradually reducing my equity shareholdings in the past 18 months or so apart from in the NZ retirement village companies.

[Bjauck]

Back on the forum after several years. Earthquake and several house shifts later
I tracked gold pre $300 days, and decided to get in at $300 but being busy or slack didn't do anything till $800 then got stitched up by a gold bullion con and BMA which folded. But thats history. I feel things are about to get rather nasty and gold may be the place to be so had a little punt on KZR just before SPROTT bought in, 24c to 65c in a few weeks. Also have BLK and PNR.
GOOD LUCK FOR THE FUTURE ALL I think we are going to need it.
cheers
SPARKY
When I first look at the forums I remember a sparky the clown...are you the same member?

[SPARKY]

Sparky the clown??? Thats not me, least not as far as I know.

[Joshuatree]

This s you here (below) sparky in 2011, what a great buy and hold story.What was the compounding rate from $5000 to $55,000?

"I mortgaged myself up to my eyeballs to buy a house in 1972, cost 5000. REPayments were almost crippling. I sold in 1986 and the repayments were a joke, sold for 55000.
If I,d had 5000 cash in the bank in 1972 there is no way that would have got to 55000 in 14 yrs. this demonstrated to me how, in times of inflation, properties can be a good option. The average kiwi is probably not going to buy a beachfront property, he will probably buy the house next door and rent it.
A house is a house and will always be a house, 5000$ will always be 5000$ but it can be worth bugger all over time.
If you believe inflation is going to increase having money in the bank is not a good option, a house is better, or maybe you could own shares, but which ones, or you could trust your cash to a finance co.
good luck whatever you do,"

[SPARKY]

When I wrote that I had been reading that the money printing going on after the gfc was going to cause massive inflation, too much money chasing too few goods etc. But it doesn't seem to have happened like that, not yet anyway. as a result I have been out of the markets, apart from a recent dabble into the gold space, with mixed results. I am now retired and can no longer earn my way out of bad investments, however the case for gold seems to be compelling as will the likes of bboz if there is a major correction. So here I am back again, for better or worse.

[JBmurc]

Do you think that actual gold bullion/coins is the best way to invest in gold as opposed to equity in producers?
I certainly have been gradually reducing my equity shareholdings in the past 18 months or so apart from in the NZ retirement village companies.

Well the safest along with PMGOLD.asx etc(Perth mint gold shares) ---investing into the miners you do take the risks of poor mgmt. and being affected by general market sell down ... many investors can be forced to sell their Gold Plays to make margin calls etc

[Aaron]

Well the safest along with PMGOLD.asx etc(Perth mint gold shares) ---investing into the miners you do take the risks of poor mgmt. and being affected by general market sell down ... many investors can be forced to sell their Gold Plays to make margin calls etc

My gold producer prices are not reacting how I would like today.
I guess gold mining is risky business and everything gets sold in a panic, riskiest first.

[Bjauck]

My gold producer prices are not reacting how I would like today.
I guess gold mining is risky business and everything gets sold in a panic, riskiest first.

How much demand for gold normally comes from China?

[Aaron]

How much demand for gold normally comes from China?

No idea, hopefully once they have hand sanitisers, face masks and water they might think about some gold to put under the mattress.

Tempted to bail out and buy back in once it calms down.

[Bjauck]

No idea, hopefully once they have hand sanitisers, face masks and water they might think about some gold to put under the mattress.

Tempted to bail out and buy back in once it calms down. I may have to find my Grandfathers old sovereigns to trade for some sanitiser. There has not been any at the supermarket for the last month now.

There is a a bit of fear carrying over from the wider stock exchange with respect to gold stocks?

[airedale]

Considering that POG is about the same as it was a week ago, I would say that it is largely unaffected by this week's meltdown. Colin Twigg's advice is to buy the dips and gold in OZ dollars is in a strong uptrend. Colin is a much more knowledgeable person than I am.
Discl: holding EVN, GOR and SAR

[JBmurc]

Considering that POG is about the same as it was a week ago, I would say that it is largely unaffected by this week's meltdown. Colin Twigg's advice is to buy the dips and gold in OZ dollars is in a strong uptrend. Colin is a much more knowledgeable person than I am.
Discl: holding EVN, GOR and SAR

Yes I sold down one of my Nickel plays to invest into two of my beaten down Gold companies MEU-RXL ... pure bloodbath paper value wise this week easy $80K down on previous weeks high !!!

Having invested through GFC I do see light at the end of the bloodbath as FEAR is always followed by GREED and when you have GOLD booming and costs to mining falling it will show a clear picture of high cashflows next Qtr

[Aaron]

Considering that POG is about the same as it was a week ago, I would say that it is largely unaffected by this week's meltdown. Colin Twigg's advice is to buy the dips and gold in OZ dollars is in a strong uptrend. Colin is a much more knowledgeable person than I am.
Discl: holding EVN, GOR and SAR

Gold joined the party last night. Scary to see in dollar terms how much I lost yesterday and Monday will be worse as the POG has actually fallen. The exit looks pretty small and I am tempted to run for it on Monday along with all the other chickens. But then I think, Ok there might be some selling of gold to cover debts and sort out your affairs in a meltdown but longer term it still makes sense as currencies will be further debased in this crisis. Not sure how much further they can go with interest rates and money printing but I guess "whatever it takes" could mean anything.

probably a conspiracy theory.
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/gold-tumbles-boj-back-market
More likely a big speculator trying to get the house in order and having to sell something of value but I have no idea.

[airedale]

https://thepatientinvestor.com/index.php/2020/02/28/gold-buy-the-dip/

Gold heading for support at US$ 1550. Next week will be interesting.

[JBmurc]

https://thepatientinvestor.com/index.php/2020/02/28/gold-buy-the-dip/

Gold heading for support at US$ 1550. Next week will be interesting.

Yeah Gutted I closed my Palladium short !! I really hope Gold can hold the $1550 surely the large shorts will exit