Gold

[elZorro]

Goldbugs are trumpeting the value of gold in AUD, because the USD is appreciating against it.

Hold on, isn't the USD, according to goldbugs and JBMurc supposed to be imploding with the debt-plagued 'fiat money' headed for extinction?

I think you're confused Skol..investors are probably selling off overseas forex positions in favour of US ones, so the US$ is appreciating relative to overseas currencies.

But gold, and even oil, is at the same time appreciating against the US$. An interesting post the other day had a clip relating how oil and gold have stayed linked up in value over the last 100 years or so. Both have climbed hard against the dollar.

While there is some talk of deflation, recent history notes the use of inflation as a way of paying off debt. Doubling the price of gold won't do it, but over time inflation would erode the world's debt. As long as everyone tries to earn more than they purchase, for a few years. IMHO.

[peat]

Goldbugs are trumpeting the value of gold in AUD, because the USD is appreciating against it.

Hold on, isn't the USD, according to goldbugs and JBMurc supposed to be imploding with the debt-plagued 'fiat money' headed for extinction?

Time will tell but at this stage deflation is the main issue
deflation is destruction or liquidation of debt
most debt is denominated in USD so at this stage of the scenario the USD actually attracts support during crises

Rodney Dickens (a good NZ economist) latest raving talks about inflation but at this stage only being an issue for long term investors to be mindful of if they are investing in long term bonds etc

see http://www.sra.co.nz/pdf/NextCrisisMay10.pdf (http://www.sra.co.nz/pdf/NextCrisisMay10.pdf).

[Lego_Man]

Time will tell but at this stage deflation is the main issue
deflation is destruction or liquidation of debt
most debt is denominated in USD so at this stage of the scenario the USD actually attracts support during crises

Rodney Dickens (a good NZ economist) latest raving talks about inflation but at this stage only being an issue for long term investors to be mindful of if they are investing in long term bonds etc

see http://www.sra.co.nz/pdf/NextCrisisMay10.pdf (http://www.sra.co.nz/pdf/NextCrisisMay10.pdf).

Deflation may be an immovable object, but quantitative easing and money debasement is an irresistable force. It will win out in the end, and when it does the results will be stunning.

[Skol]

Deflation may be an immovable object, but quantitative easing and money debasement is an irresistable force. It will win out in the end, and when it does the results will be stunning.

We're all waiting.

[elZorro]

Thanks for the link in your post, Peat. (I'll have to learn more about deflation). A bit worrying how the FED is warming towards inflationary-type policy perhaps.

Our local bastion of quality business reporting, the Waikato Times has an article from Tony Alexander (most of the good articles are from outsiders) headlining "Scary Risks as Euro Founders". He ends with two words: "Scared yet?"

Makes more sense than Skol's three words...

[Skol]

Thanks for the link in your post, Peat. (I'll have to learn more about deflation). A bit worrying how the FED is warming towards inflationary-type policy perhaps.

Our local bastion of quality business reporting, the Waikato Times has an article from Tony Alexander (most of the good articles are from outsiders) headlining "Scary Risks as Euro Founders". He ends with two words: "Scared yet?"

Makes more sense than Skol's three words...

My 3 words make more sense than Tony Alexander's.

A while back about 30 economists were asked their opinion on a particular subject and 29 or thereabouts agreed.
The convenor decided that they would all be wrong and the odd man out was right, and so it proved.
I've been hearing about this inflation for years. Where is it? The same place peak oil is.

Read Hot Copper. Half the goldbugs can't spell, but use big words like quantative easing, predict hyperinflation and other nonsense.

[elZorro]

My 3 words make more sense than Tony Alexander's.

A while back about 30 economists were asked their opinion on a particular subject and 29 or thereabouts agreed.
The convenor decided that they would all be wrong and the odd man out was right, and so it proved.
I've been hearing about this inflation for years. Where is it? The same place peak oil is.

Read Hot Copper. Half the goldbugs can't spell, use big words like quantative easing, predict hyperinflation and other nonsense.

Skol, I think you're wrong there. Our world cannot continue on this path, and gold is simply one of the indicators that is putting a brake on overspending, overuse of resources etc. Compared to other industries like the oil industry, gold mining is a relatively clean business - the end product is inert, stable, transportable, and is monetarily dense.

It's been calculated numerous times, there are not enough resources on this planet to allow all humans the living standards of the western world, even now. In the same way that climate change is almost certainly sheeted home to human activity, peak oil is either with us or soon to get here, and the many millions of Chinese and other people who would like to buy their first car and other normal luxuries, will have to pay more than we did for the privilege.

There aren't many easy answers for this rather troubling situation.

[Skol]

There aren't many easy answers for this rather troubling situation.

I've got an idea, you worry about this troubling situation.
I've been told for decades about peak oil, hyperinflation, atomic war, overpopulation, et.al.
If I'd listened to the experts I'd be broke, actually I'd have put all my money into gold around 1979, then been broke.

'Transportable'? Next time you go on holiday slip a KG or 2 of gold in your wallet and take it on the aircraft, and then see what Customs say at the other end.

Collectively, the goldbugs are saying "it's different this time".

I'm going to watch as lots of them go broke.

Everybody (goldbugs, Tony Alexander, hedgefunds) all say don't buy Euros. Might be time to buy some.
Bought some USD when JBMurc advised me not to and I'm up a few bucks.

You'd be better off going to your local racetrack and betting on an outsider than buying gold.

[Skol]

From the WSJ.
You'll notice no mention of hyperinflation, quantative easing, 'fiat money', world financial collapse, chaos, Weimar Republic, Song dynasty etc.


Why I Don't Trust Gold
by Brett Arends
Thursday, May 27, 2010
provided by


This is a very sad day for me.

In Part One of this series, when I argued that gold might be about to go vertical, I made a whole bunch of new friends among the gold bugs.

And now I'm going to lose them all.

That's because even though I think gold might be about to take off, I don't recommend you rush out and put all your money into gold bars or exchange-traded funds that hold


And this is for one simple reason: At some levels, gold, as an investment, is absolutely ridiculous.

Warren Buffett put it well. "Gold gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace," he said. "Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head."

And that's not the half of it.

Gold is volatile. It's hard to value. It generates no income.

Yes, it's a "hard asset," but so are lots of other things—like land, bags of rice, even bottled water.


It's a currency "substitute," but it's useless. In prison, at least, they use cigarettes: If all else fails, they can smoke them. Imagine a bunch of health nuts in a nonsmoking "facility" still trying to settle their debts with cigarettes. That's gold. It doesn't make sense.

As for being a "store of value," anyone who bought gold in the late 1970s and held on lost nearly all their purchasing power over the next 20 years.

I get worried when I see people plunging heavily into gold at $1,200 an ounce. What if the price goes back to where it was just a few years ago, at $500 or $600 an ounce? Will you buy more? Sell?

My concerns about gold go even further than that.

Let's step inside the gold market for a moment.

Everyone knows the price has risen about fivefold in the past decade. But this is not due to some mystical truth or magical act of levitation. It is simply because there have been more buyers than sellers.

Banal, but true—and sometimes worth repeating.

If the price rises you'd think there must be a shortage. But data provided by the World Gold Council, an industry body, tell a remarkable story.

Over that period the world has produced—or, more accurately, recovered—far more gold than anyone actually wanted to use. Since 2002, for example, total demand for gold from goldsmiths and jewelers, and dentists, and general industry, has come to about 22,500 tonnes.

But during the same period, more than 29,000 tonnes has come on to the market.

The surplus alone is enough to produce about 220 million one-ounce gold American Buffalo coins. That's in eight years.

Most of the new supply has come from mine production. Some, though a dwindling amount, has come from central banks. And a growing amount has come from recycling—old jewelry and the like being melted down for scrap. (This is a perennial issue with gold. I never understand why the fans think gold's incredible durability—it doesn't waste or corrode—is bullish for the market. It's bearish.) So if supply has consistently exceeded user demand, how come the price of gold has still been rising?

In a word, hoarding.

Gold investors, or hoarders, have made up all the difference. They are the only reason total "demand" has exceeded supply.

Lots of people have been buying gold in the hope it would rise. But the only way it can rise is if still more people buy it, hoping it will rise still further. And so on.

What do we call an investment scheme where current members' returns depend entirely on new money brought in by new members?

A Ponzi scheme.

Yes, as I wrote earlier, gold may well be the next big bubble. And that may mean there is big money to be made in speculation.

But I don't trust it as an investment

[elZorro]

You'll have to do better than that Skol, to keep your agument alive ;)

I'm not a fan of gold hoarding either. I'm looking at this thread to understand the dynamics of gold.
That article picks on old facts to support a lame argument. Gold has risen for the last 10 years and will keep going for a while yet, if there is anything to the TA system most use on the stockmarket. Its chart has a huge correlation, would have to be 95% of the variation explained. A scientist would use that data no problem.

Gold is necessary for electronics, has always been prized for jewelry, etc. And it may return as the backbone of the financial system. Like other materials, gold is getting harder to find, more equipment is needed, bigger risks. Miners will be wanting at least US$750 per oz from now on to break even and pay off gear, looking at the info from lots of mines.

Setting up a mine brings heavy equipment into a country like NZ. It can later be used to extract other materials the country might need. Locals are trained up, local communities are boosted, immigrants arrive, etc. Those are good economic outcomes, and a lot more intensive and even tidier than say the agricultural sector.

Re the big picture, probably a combination of cheaper and safer energy from fission, fusion, and biofuels will rescue us all, with cheap power we could desalinate seawater and pump it anywhere it is needed, for example.

But gold will probably remain expensive to extract.

[Skol]

Gold is a self-correcting commodity like oil, if it goes up alternatives will be found and there'll be more mining.

It's naive in the extreme to believe that because the miners want $750 they'll get it, capitalism doesn't work like that.

I've put it here before, prior to the gold crash of 1980, suckers believed there would be hyperinflation that never eventuated and they got their fingers burnt.

I've even seen some say we're running out of gold and silver. LOL, wanna bet, there's heaps of it. There's always someone saying we're running out of food, oil, silver, timber etc.

"A ponzi scheme". Couldn't have put it better myself.

[skid]

Food for thought:What is different about now and 1980?[when gold crashed]...And what would it actually take to cause Hyperinflation..Is it possible ,or just a myth?

[elZorro]

Here's perhaps a basic version of the gold argument, with some good balanced points. WSJ, today.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704269204575271483639903258.html?m od=googlenews_wsj

So maybe you are right, Skol (not with everything I hasten to add :) ) in that the demand for new gold has dropped back with the higher prices. But the article implies that gold will stay high for a while yet (2010), and many others note a "flight to home" which usually includes a "flight to gold".

That's good enough for me, as I'm backing a local business and success story that happens to be supplying gold into that market. Best of both worlds I reckon. If the POG dropped below their normal breakeven later, they'd extract only the highest grades and drop back on volume, or even mothball parts for awhile.

Gold is climbing past $1215 again right now..hard to argue with that.

[ENP]

Just went to Westfield mall the other day. There is a stall in the mall buying "all gold for quick cash" and just heard an advertisement on the radio about stalls buying your gold.

I've never ever heard or seen these before.

[upside_umop]

SKol mentioned it a few pages back.

They're paying around about $700 an ounce...NZD (around 2 weeks back). I queried, thats it about 60% less than spot, but I dont think he understood.

[shasta]

Just went to Westfield mall the other day. There is a stall in the mall buying "all gold for quick cash" and just heard an advertisement on the radio about stalls buying your gold.

I've never ever heard or seen these before.

Walked past a gold stall again today in the Porirua mall, i was wondering what they would but it for, $NZ700/oz, thats over $NZ1000 less than spot, OUCH

[JBmurc]

FACT- production from gold mines only managed
to supply 75% of the 120 million ounces of
identifiable global gold demand last year.

guess where the rest comes from-------------- Scrap like the gold stalls that pay you 700 then sell for easy twice that amount to the mints that then on sell for a profit

[upside_umop]

What is most of the demand for?

Do you have a breakdown ie industry, hoarding, jewelry etc?

[JBmurc]

What is most of the demand for?

Do you have a breakdown ie industry, hoarding, jewelry etc?

Not exact numbers but I do believe -store of wealth hoarding etc is the biggest demand of late very little industry demand(unlike silver)
I did just read that back in 1950 average grades of major gold producers were 6g/t today it's closer to 3g/t so major miners are having to turn over twice the amounts of ore tonnage to reap the same supply the world demands ---China is currently going nuts on increasing their Gold production an is now not only the world's biggest buyer of late but now heading for the world largest producer Not for export but for their growing domestic consumption as they are openly telling the public to buy up gold silver for a store of wealth---remember this is the country with a massive war chest of Euro's an USD's

--Now who would you believe the debt laden US/UK financial masters that would tell you that Gold's a relic(like Gordan brown said just before he sold U.K gold for a record low) or the guys that have the masses of world currency wealth an is not keen on selling any of their Gold production or rare earths??

[elZorro]

FACT- production from gold mines only managed
to supply 75% of the 120 million ounces of
identifiable global gold demand last year.

guess where the rest comes from-------------- Scrap like the gold stalls that pay you 700 then sell for easy twice that amount to the mints that then on sell for a profit

I wonder if the total gold demand is dropping though, as Skol asserts? It's increasingly common that we have to look towards China for some of the answer..there's a huge population there, steadily earning more income.


Supply and demand statisticsGold Supply and Demand – Q1 2010
Demand for gold is expected to be strong during 2010, driven by growing demand for jewellery in China and India as well as an increase in European and US investment in the context of continued economic instability, sovereign risk and the threat of a ‘double dip’ recession.

Demand in India and China will continue to grow, driven by jewellery demand, in spite of high local currency gold prices. In Q1 2010, India was the strongest performing market as total consumer demand surged 698% to 193.5 tonnes. In China, demand proved resilient; demand increased 11% in Q1 2010 to 105.2 tonnes.

This strong demand is despite high local gold prices, which on May 12 in India increased to Rs 56,032/0z, the highest level for the year, while at the same time in China prices reached an all-time high of RMB8,480/oz, suggesting that consumers in India and China are becoming accustomed to higher gold prices.

Concerns over Greece’s public finances and debt contagion fears in Europe have led to strong buying in particular for gold coins, bars and gold exchange traded funds (ETFs) during May which may show up in the Q2 2010 figures. While momentum in ETF tonnage paused during Q1 2010, gold ETF flows started to rise strongly again in April and May as investors sought less volatile investments in which to protect their funds against economic turmoil. On 20 May, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) held a record 1,200 tonnes, with a value of US$46.88 billion.

Read more about Gold Demand Trends in our detailed report, which also includes commentary on supply.

Press release: Strong gold demand expected for 2010

Data on the supply and demand for gold are compiled by GFMS Ltd. The company provides a number of tables exclusively for the World Gold Council. The following table shows a summary of gold demand. Links to more detailed tables, and to notes and copyright information, are given below. Please note the restrictions on disseminating these data.

http://www.research.gold.org/assets/file/pr_archive/pdf/GDT_Q1_10_pr.pdf

[Skol]

China is currently going nuts on increasing their Gold production an is now not only the world's biggest buyer of late but now heading for the world largest producer Not for export but for their growing domestic consumption as they are openly telling the public to buy up gold silver for a store of wealth---remember this is the country with a massive war chest of Euro's an USD's

How about supplying some evidence that China is 'going nuts' acquiring gold.
It's a goldbug fantasy.

[stevo1]

Skol questions for you
.Do you or your family own any gold?
I am talking about jewellery here.
If you do is it at least 20karat +.It probably (if indeed you own any) that 9karat ****e that is sold to the western world.
The Asian and Indian races over millenia have bought as close to pure as possible to store their wealth..
It is cashed in and repurchased depending on circumstances but as in the west there is a large amount that is held in perpetuity as heirlooms.
These are the rising middle class nations with rapidly increasing populations
Will they change their traditions with regard to precious metals?
With the rising world populations what does that mean for gold.
Do you know if there is a ounce/person ratio for gold held over time/Has that increased or decreased?
Logic would suggest that (not that there is much logic in sentiment driven investment) people will continue to lust after the golden metal but the price will fluctuate on fear,greed,price,speculation ,conflict and of course supply and demand.
if the price falls too low miners stop mining it when the price gets too high people sell into it and the miners scramble to extract more.However it is getting harder to mine and more expensive (they have to go deeper and deeper) and as El zorro says g/tonne are less and less.
Personally gold for me is PART of asset holding with physical ,gold shares ,property and small amount of cash.

Always looked on it as insurance and like the east if the price gets way over the top I will sell,Question is where is the top.
Possibly a lot higher than now because despite central bank rhetoric (and selling) the price is still looking upwards albeit open to cenral banks speculators and future fund bandits holding up the stage

[Skol]

Don't own any gold, only own liquid assets except for a couple of properties.
My wife has some jewellery but this is more of sentimental nature than something I would sell if the POG went up. If I sold them I'd be in deep s***. I did however buy an ounce of 999 gold for an ex-girlfriend 30 years ago, that's my biggest splash on gold and the last I saw of it by the way.

Ask the punters who owned it in 1980 if it was good 'insurance'.

The only gold I would be tempted to own is an ETF and there was a dire warning about them in last weeks Barrons magazine.
Your assumption that gold will increase in price because of the above reasons is naive as is the assumption that the 'banksters' are holding the goldbugs to ransom.

It's paranoia to say the least and I've yet to see one ounce of evidence the Chinese are buying gold. They own 1054 tonnes which I could fit inside this hotel room.

[shasta]

Don't own any gold, only own liquid assets except for a couple of properties.
My wife has some jewellery but this is more of sentimental nature than something I would sell if the POG went up. If I sold them I'd be in deep s***. I did however buy an ounce of 999 gold for an ex-girlfriend 30 years ago, that's my biggest splash on gold and the last I saw of it by the way.

Ask the punters who owned it in 1980 if it was good 'insurance'.

The only gold I would be tempted to own is an ETF and there was a dire warning about them in last weeks Barrons magazine.
Your assumption that gold will increase in price because of the above reasons is naive as is the assumption that the 'banksters' are holding the goldbugs to ransom.

It's paranoia to say the least and I've yet to see one ounce of evidence the Chinese are buying gold. They own 1054 tonnes which I could fit inside this hotel room.

Skol

There was a news article on TV3 last week showing Chinese buying up Gold in retail stores in a frenzy, they were buying it as soon as it was put out.

The chinese seem hellbent on Gold at the moment (even if its another bubble forming?)

I also received an email from Perth Mint today, they have released more coins - so demand is still there even at $US1,220/oz

[Skol]

Skol

There was a news article on TV3 last week showing Chinese buying up Gold in retail stores in a frenzy, they were buying it as soon as it was put out.

The chinese seem hellbent on Gold at the moment (even if its another bubble forming?)

I also received an email from Perth Mint today, they have released more coins - so demand is still there even at $US1,220/oz

I'll bet they're selling them, to the suckers.
How about some evidence the Chinese Government's buying gold?

[COLIN]

Just to add a bit of fuel to the fire, I see that India's latest growth rate has come out at a whopping 8.6%. Now, I think even Skol would agree that Indian women love to adorn themselves with lots and lots of this shiny, glittering stuff, and their menfolk love showing off their new-found wealth by buying lots and lots of it for them. And what country in the world has the second-largest population?

I remember owning a Krugerand for a few years, somewhere in the 1970's/80's (seems like the 1870'80s!), and did quite well out of it - well, from memory, it at least kept pace with inflation, which was more than could be said for monetary assets at the time.

[shasta]

I'll bet they're selling them, to the suckers.
How about some evidence the Chinese Government's buying gold?

Nothing about the Govt buying just a frenzy with retail investors getting onboard the gold wagon, buying a troy oz at a time etc

Good question though, who is selling it?

[Skol]

Just to add a bit of fuel to the fire, I see that India's latest growth rate has come out at a whopping 8.6%. Now, I think even Skol would agree that Indian women love to adorn themselves with lots and lots of this shiny, glittering stuff, and their menfolk love showing off their new-found wealth by buying lots and lots of it for them. And what country in the world has the second-largest population?

I remember owning a Krugerand for a few years, somewhere in the 1970's/80's (seems like the 1870'80s!), and did quite well out of it - well, from memory, it at least kept pace with inflation, which was more than could be said for monetary assets at the time.

I've just read an article a few minutes ago that says gold demand in India has dropped for the 3rd straight year in a row. Lots of sellers, no buyers.
Indians aren't stupid and won't pay $1200 an ounce. If you don't believe me let me know and I'll copy & paste.

[elZorro]

It appears a poor monsoon last year did depress gold sales, a lot depends on India having a normal monsoon this year. But even now, gold sales are picking up in India and near record levels, depending on which article you pluck out of Google.

Spot gold moved steadily up to peak at 1228 overnight, currently on 1225. It's less volatile, but still showing an upwards trend.

[COLIN]

I've just read an article a few minutes ago that says gold demand in India has dropped for the 3rd straight year in a row. Lots of sellers, no buyers.
Indians aren't stupid and won't pay $1200 an ounce. If you don't believe me let me know and I'll copy & paste.

Someone had better tell the wife of my local dairy owner!

I'm sure that the article you have read is well-founded but, as Elzorro has noted, other current statistics seem to tell a different story.

If the "Indians aren't stupid" then the Chinese must be: read today's email from the Energy and Capital people - www.energyandcapital.com They list three reasons why they believe China's ambition is to corner the world's gold supply:
1. There has been official admission that China has bolstered its gold supplies by more than 70% since 2003 (source quoted)
2. China lifted the moratorium on private ownership of precious metal. The Govt is even strongly encouraging people to put at least 5% of their savings in gold and silver
3. China has prohibited the export of ANY gold bullion.

Now, I don't want to spend countless hours debating the merits or otherwise of holding gold, or gold-linked investments (its a bit like the Arab/Israeli conflict, there are pros and cons for both sides). But, having regard to history, it seems eminently sensible to me to have at least a small portion of one's savings invested in that area, in times of financial turmoil. Physical gold costs money to store and it doesn't earn any interest or dividends, but it does seem to hold its purchasing power. And besides, look at the leverage that can be obtained from owning the right gold-mining shares in times of rising prices of the metal, see OGC for instance.

But obviously, Skol, nothing I can say will ever convince you to change your strongly-held and no doubt genuine views, so I guess we might as well leave it at that.

Enjoy the day!

[Skol]

Enjoy the OJC. Gold shares should be on the way up, but most aren't, wonder why that is?
See Hot Copper for some very disgruntled punters who are busy blaming the 'banksters'.

During the 'flash crash' a couple of weeks back some ETF's went to 0, that's right, 0.

[elZorro]

I don't know anything about ETFs.
In the case of goldmining shares, I think it's likely the market is moving to a more conservative price multiple on their earnings (some are 10x-15x). These companies will be currently earning more, but at the moment shareholders are being careful.

However, OGC has not even reached a very conservative valuation (5x), and has signalled 280,000oz for the year. They were hoping for up to 500,000oz two years ago, including Didipio extraction. The fact they've ordered another massive digger to help out, gives plenty of reason to expect a big year.

BTW, great post from Colin.

[denpal]

Get real POG in rupees has broken out to a fresh ATH today, now 57,724 and has tested 57,800. Up 10% in a month priced in rupees.

[shasta]

Get real POG in rupees has broken out to a fresh ATH today, now 57,724 and has tested 57,800. Up 10% in a month priced in rupees.

Hi Denpal, have you received your prize from Sharescene yet (from the April comp?)

[denpal]

Hi Shasta, I'd forgotten all about that, no I haven't yet!

[shasta]

Hi Shasta, I'd forgotten all about that, no I haven't yet!

Wondered if being in NZ excluded us, i see they have read my reply with address details etc

[STRAT]

. And what country in the world has the second-largest population?
.Hi Colin.
Large population yup, but reckon those with money to buy gold would be one in five thousand :)

[COLIN]

Hi Colin.
Large population yup, but reckon those with money to buy gold would be one in five thousand :)

Strat, you could well be right, but its the steadily rising numbers of the better-off middle classes where I expect the increased demand will be coming from.

[tricha]

Someone had better tell the wife of my local dairy owner!

I'm sure that the article you have read is well-founded but, as Elzorro has noted, other current statistics seem to tell a different story.

If the "Indians aren't stupid" then the Chinese must be: read today's email from the Energy and Capital people - www.energyandcapital.com They list three reasons why they believe China's ambition is to corner the world's gold supply:
1. There has been official admission that China has bolstered its gold supplies by more than 70% since 2003 (source quoted)
2. China lifted the moratorium on private ownership of precious metal. The Govt is even strongly encouraging people to put at least 5% of their savings in gold and silver
3. China has prohibited the export of ANY gold bullion.

Now, I don't want to spend countless hours debating the merits or otherwise of holding gold, or gold-linked investments (its a bit like the Arab/Israeli conflict, there are pros and cons for both sides). But, having regard to history, it seems eminently sensible to me to have at least a small portion of one's savings invested in that area, in times of financial turmoil. Physical gold costs money to store and it doesn't earn any interest or dividends, but it does seem to hold its purchasing power. And besides, look at the leverage that can be obtained from owning the right gold-mining shares in times of rising prices of the metal, see OGC for instance.

But obviously, Skol, nothing I can say will ever convince you to change your strongly-held and no doubt genuine views, so I guess we might as well leave it at that.

Enjoy the day!

Dear Colin

Skol is a contrairian, excuse my spelling.

If u said black, he would say green, he has openly admitted he likes nothing better than taking the mickey out of people,
just for the fun of it.

Happy days.

[Skol]

Looks like the guys on CNBC are contrarians too. They were trying to come to grips with a couple of goldbugs this morning, one of whom was stuck for words when asked some tricky questions about gold.
Like, for example, why has gold only gone up 4% with the dire situation in the EU and debt problems around the world.
It's all going to happen in the future apparently, "maybe in a million years", according to one of the presenters.

[Skol]

I have just acquired the latest Barrons magazine and in it there's an article entitled:

'Gold: The Ultimate Fiat Currency.'

This excellent article should be required reading for the goldbugs. It' puts to bed a lot of the theories the goldbugs desperately hang on too, hoping that the gold price is about to go through the roof. It points out that the demand is so great that a huge premium is being demanded, $200/$300 because of the ETF fund acquisitions and demand for gold coins has jumped 65% so far this year. This is where the 'smart money ' is but makes the point that;

"Wall Street is just a corner of the public mind. It follows fads, so money congregates in outlandish places. In the counterintuitive world that is the investment markets, you don't want to be where the smart money is. You don't want to be "where it's at".
A vital observation of the fun-starved Austrian school of economics is that investors err together, so unanimity of opinion is a danger sign."

and

"Only 15% of gold is used as a monetary metal; the rest is used as a commercial metal, and that use, particularly as a corrosion-resistant electrical conductor for semi-conductors is declining. Regrettably, it is a soft, semi-useless metal with very few industrial applications."

"Gold is just another fiat currency. The only reason gold is valuable is that we believe it is valuable. Ultimately, this gold bubble ends in tears. When and how far gold's price will decline is anyone's guess, but a smart bet is "sooner rather than later".

"Another part of the logic for gold - that whole flight to safety thing - doesn't exist anymore. Maybe once upon a time, gold was a handy way to buy passage out of an oppressive country but not anymore. When everybody obsessed about gold, and it was highlighted as a great doomsday hedge against inflation, financial futures didn't exist. Now they do, so gold is a third-rate safe haven: It pays no interest and cost money to insure.
(Textbooks say it has a 'positive cost to carry')."

I will put some more of this article on here as I have the time but make the point that Barrons is a magazine for contrarians.

I have no problem with punters putting their hard-earned money into gold tricha, the only thing I take issue with is some of the goldbugs spurious, illogical arguments.

[Silverlight]

Just found this thread, not going to weigh in to much on your thoughts skol, but Gold has its place during different financial cycles.

Gold is a store of value, and always will be, 4,000 years of history back this up. However, there are 100+ other places to store value, and some will return better value than others over a period of time, if you select peaks and pits.

Agreed someone who placed all there wealth into gold in 1979, will have not got the store of value of someone who chose to invest in the USD or timber, or NZ real estate. However history has proven during economic uncertainty, gold provides a preserving of wealth, that other currency assets don't.

Gold is both a currency and a commodity, during times of unrest it appreciates like a currency because it is finite, during times of stability it acts like a commodity, moving up and down on the whims of supply and demand from the jeweler and electronic manufacturing industries.

The world banks own gold, the Chinese banks own gold, because they believe that it is a store of value.

The reason you buy gold, comes down to one question, do you believe the current place you have your savings stored will be maintained if the world economic situation changes?

If your view is that we are still in for a big correction and the world economies can not maintain their debt levels and that your savings will be eroded and not preserved by depreciating values of the underlying currencies you buy gold.

If your view is that the world economies will all recover and we will now move into economic stability for the next 10 -20 years, then you don't buy gold.

Its that simple.

[Skol]

The reason you buy gold, comes down to one question, do you believe the current place you have your savings stored will be maintained if the world economic situation changes?

What kind of 'economic situation' would you envisage that justifies buying gold?

What sort of gold do you own, shares, coins, ingots or ETF's?

[Silverlight]

What kind of 'economic situation' would you envisage that justifies buying gold?

I stated the extremes at each end of the scale. Fiscal irresponsibility on behalf of the government with which you have your current wealth (or savings) stored in their currency.


What sort of gold do you own, shares, coins, ingots or ETF's?

I have invested in rare gold coins and a few unhedged mining producers, and few exploration companies, however these holdings make up less than 25% of my savings.

If you place more than that into your positions, then you need to have completed a lot of research to justify your holding, or be an expert in the geology/ mining space. I am of the view that fiscal problems of the western economies will lead to some fiscal issues, which will directly effect the value of the major currencies. If this occurs gold may enter a real bull bubble price and spike to multiples it is now, if not and these fiscal issues are reigned in, gold may slowly depreciate.

I am more inclined through reading, history and opinion, expecting the fiscal policies not to be reigned in and thus expecting gold to appreciate, however, even if the gold price decline to 1,000 or lower, won't impact my holdings a great deal as I have not leveraged, other than the exploration companies, which I have already discounted to zero, in the case that they produce nothing, and my direct gold holding through coins, will on a very long term scale, go up as they are a rare, and only about of quarter of their value is based on the price of gold, they fit more into the category of rare art or wine, which are two other very intriguing markets.


What are your specific opinions’ or views on the world economy? China does own over 1,000 tonnes of gold for a reason.

[darksentinel]

2012 will be interesting. What is it, 800 billion of US bonds, companies etc. up for refinancing? That's a lot more than 1000 tonnes of gold.

[ENP]

For investors here who own gold...

If gold prices collapsed to 50% of todays value in the next 6-24 months. Would you buy more gold? Or would you buy something else? Would you buy gold in a down trending market?

Why/why not?

[skid]

I think its important to make the distinction between gold as an investment,and gold as an insurance policy.
I own a bit as an insurance policy against the worst case scenario[or heading in that direction] a bit like the one in a hundred year flood.
I also invest in other things that can be more of a bang for your buck[or not] but i like having a bit of the gold stuff just in case....

[shasta]

For investors here who own gold...

If gold prices collapsed to 50% of todays value in the next 6-24 months. Would you buy more gold? Or would you buy something else? Would you buy gold in a down trending market?

Why/why not?

ENP

It depends on what reason you bought into gold in the first place

Physical Gold is more often seen as a small part of a long term portfolio (insurance against the $US & inflation), if you held the physical bullion then a drop in the price would provide a top up opportunity, especially if rebalancing a portfolio light on gold.

If you were to ride the Gold price up & trade it, then companies producing gold are a better option (that way you would sell on weakness)

Disc: No gold held, accummulating silver coins for the long term

[ENP]

Yea just interested too see if all the people saying the world is going to end, hyperinflation, etc, if they sell when the going gets tough or buy more

[JBmurc]

"Gold is just another fiat currency.-------------What a load of bollocks--- you should look up what a Fiat currency is---It for one isn't a precious metal that's for sure there's absolutely nothing fiat about gold,silver,platinum etc just try and find the stuff

[Huang Chung]

If tonight's jobs report is good, we might see a bit of a sell off in gold. Already down about $8.00.

[Skol]

"Gold is just another fiat currency.-------------What a load of bollocks--- you should look up what a Fiat currency is---It for one isn't a precious metal that's for sure there's absolutely nothing fiat about gold,silver,platinum etc just try and find the stuff

LOL,
Though that might flush you out JB.
The article in Barrons was written by Richard Wiggins, chief investment strategist for First Michigan Bank, a private bank that is purchasing failed banks from the FDIC, so I think I'd rather listen to what he's got to say than you. Owning physical gold doesn't make sense, e.g.,

"The big argument for gold is that all of the money that the Federal Reserve is printing - 18 years of easy money - will come back to haunt us at some time when inflation come roaring back. Yet if today's investors are worried about U.S. inflation, they can go out and sell T-bonds, or buy the euro or another currency and earn interest while they're doing it. Investors afraid of 1970's style inflation also should be buying Treasury inflation-protected securities."

[Huang Chung]

If tonight's jobs report is good, we might see a bit of a sell off in gold. Already down about $8.00.


Ok, bad jobs report and gold up $10.00

Gold....safe haven champion of the world.

[elZorro]

If tonight's jobs report is good, we might see a bit of a sell off in gold. Already down about $8.00.

Thanks, HC: this report is a few hours old, gold was back on the march upwards. It should halt at about 1220/oz.

http://in.reuters.com/article/idINIndia-49052520100604

But now I can see the connection - people betting the employment figure would be very good, gold dropped sharply in advance. When the figures were not so hot, it then rose back almost as quickly, ready for the weekend.

[JBmurc]

Gold -USD $1220oz ---AUD $1485oz !!! what a boom for ASX goldies

Even if the TAX in the USA was 100% they'd still have trouble paying off their total unfunded liabilities of 72 trillion an growing why because their Entire GDP is round 14 trillion
the Wars ,Government workers ,massive inverstruture costs,bailouts,space programs,defense spending soaks up most their GDP that why their Debts are going up----
The only hope for the USA is mass Inflation an they know it.

[elZorro]

Gold -USD $1220oz ---AUD $1485oz !!! what a boom for ASX goldies

Even if the TAX in the USA was 100% they'd still have trouble paying off their total unfunded liabilities of 72 trillion an growing why because their Entire GDP is round 14 trillion
the Wars ,Government workers ,massive inverstruture costs,bailouts,space programs,defense spending soaks up most their GDP that why their Debts are going up----
The only hope for the USA is mass Inflation an they know it.

Good post JB: total world debt is apparently hundreds of trillions. As the world's resources get used up, it's going to be harder to easily service that debt. The mining and exploration sector is gearing up again though, and that will bring more of the latest technology in. I'm hopeful that some breakthroughs in the energy sector over the next 10-20 years will let the world carry on in a more sustainable way.

In the meantime, gold looks a safe bet.

[JBmurc]

Good post JB: total world debt is apparently hundreds of trillions. As the world's resources get used up, it's going to be harder to easily service that debt. The mining and exploration sector is gearing up again though, and that will bring more of the latest technology in. I'm hopeful that some breakthroughs in the energy sector over the next 10-20 years will let the world carry on in a more sustainable way.

In the meantime, gold looks a safe bet.

Thats the thing if their another Energy crisis an the price of oil spikes higher watch GOLD also get a kick along
most ASX gold producers will be making $700+ profit per oz produced only months ago that would have been closer to 400-500 profit--the PGM sectors IMHO will be the a star performer late 2010/2011/2012 the market will wake up one day soon

[shasta]

Ok, bad jobs report and gold up $10.00

Gold....safe haven champion of the world.

I find this info off Kitco quite useful to explain the movement in the Gold price (currently $US1,220.00)

Gold Price Change due to Strengthening of US Dollar -14.35
Gold Price Change due to Predominant Buying +26.55
Gold Price: Total Change +12.20

[JBmurc]

yeah then when you think the USD should well cash to all time lows GOLD will really fly ------too much debt to little GDP

[Skol]

There will be no inflation, like there's no peak oil, if anything mild deflation.
There's plenty of spare labour, there's plenty of things and gadgets to buy, there's plenty of oil, plenty of food, etc. etc.

The hyperinflation argument is pie in the sky, a figment of the imagination of endlessly optimistic goldbugs who keep on saying as they have for ages that gold 'will go through the roof', and hark back to the tedious Weimar Republic argument, something probably most of them know nothing about. Certainly none of them were alive.

There's a massive rush of suckers out buying gold and silver coins, heaps of ads in the US on TV imploring punters to buy gold, so all the warning signs a contrarian would look for are there.

Things are as bad as they can possibly be, the US looks it's as if it's on the way to recovery and the best gold can manage is $1200, exactly half what the 1980 inflation adjusted peak was.

The IMF is selling 403 tonnes of gold-smart move.

There was even one optimist trumpeting the other day how Iran was buying 1.4 tonnes of gold, and how this was liable to really set the market on fire.

1.4 tonnes of gold measures 18 inches X 18 inches x 18 inches. LOL

[skid]

Ive read alot of info on how inflation is on the cards[mayby not zimbabui hyperinflation],but still major.
Id be interested in hearing the facts behind your "pie in the sky" argument to help us all make an informed decision on this issue.
After all,it could have a major effect on us and our families.

[Skol]

Ive read alot of info on how inflation is on the cards[mayby not zimbabui hyperinflation],but still major.
Id be interested in hearing the facts behind your "pie in the sky" argument to help us all make an informed decision on this issue.
After all,it could have a major effect on us and our families.

The worst inflation I've experienced in my lifetime was 20% for a brief period, mortgage rates were 25% so if you are concerned about inflation pay off as much mortgage as you can or maybe fix it for a few years. Buy stocks, commodities and real estate or invest in a fund which does, buy inflation-adjusted bonds.

Own currencies that would be immune from hyperinflation if you're worried about it. There's never been hyperinflation in NZ or Australia and I may be wrong here but I believe it is because they are commodity producing countries.

There are a number of ways to protect yourself but having a lump of useless yellow metal which costs you to own and is highly illiquid is not the way to do it IMHO. When the price folds see if you can unload it, that's the acid test.

The suckers who paid US$900 for gold in 1980 would still only get half their money back if they sold it now, 30 years later and they've got no interest to show for it either, only costs for insurance and storage.

Owning gold is speculating and fraught with danger, if you have a family there are better means of insurance against inflation.

[JBmurc]

So just say the world falls into mass deflation that would mean CASH would increase it's value -debts would be far worse for those the have them (pretty much most of the world) unemployment would increase to record highs ------an most likely their would be another major World War which usually happens as the masses of pissed off populations need to be controlled by the wealthy elites of Nations(which control most governments)----or maybe instead another organised Black death to help reduce the numbers of the pissed of unemployed populations-Spanish flu etc
Many of the world super rich are all for a mass reduction of world population--Gates,buffet,turner,rockefellers,Morgans,rothschil ds,Queen etc

--I really hope for mild inflation


Well worth a read

---http://www.kitco.com/ind/GoldReport/jun032010.html

[elZorro]

We just fixed our property loan at 7.7% for three years. Apparently many others are doing roughly the same, despite the floating rate being a lot lower.

But I find Skol's latest post bemusing: take a conservative approach on inflation (but there won't be any??) pay off the house, and then.. buy more property??

You know, if most business-people waited until their house was paid off to start up their own thing, hardly anything would get done around here. And banks don't fund startups, they will lend more money against your property, which they do understand. So as long as you have some capital paid back on your house at current prices, you always have an option to either borrow more in a shortfall, or use that borrowing to start up a business. Grow rich slowly. I just think it's limiting to spend all the energy of your middle years paying off a house, while working as an employee.

However, doing your own thing is not everyone's cup of tea.

Is this the gold report you mean JB?


Focus: Gold selling fizzles out

In our last physical flow update at the start of May (Commodities
Daily 4 May 2010) we reported on large amounts of scrap and
other physical selling in the gold market. This selling trend continued
throughout May, but now seems to have run its course.

Also in May, gold ETFs added almost 150 tonnes to holdings (which increased
from 1,800 tonnes 1 May to 1,950 tonnes 1 June). The
investment market is very bullish and, without the scrap and other
gold selling in the physical market, the gold price could arguably
have been much higher.

Physical market selling is graphically presented alongside; the
Index pushed deeply into negative territory in April and May (an
index value below zero indicates net selling in the physical gold
market).

But in recent days, selling has slowed, and our index is near neutral
territory despite the gold price having edged back above
$1,200 (see graph).

Re future physical flows: Our analysis shows that, after controlling
for movements in the gold price, Q3 jewellery demand is slightly
weaker than in Q2. We therefore infer a lull in gold demand in
Q3:10. Jewellery gold demand is by far the strongest in Q4.
However, H2:09 produced, on average, an index value above zero
— which implies that the physical market had provided upward
momentum to the gold price. We expect strong gold
demand in H2:10. An index value above zero combined
with healthy investment demand could only spell
new record highs for gold.

By Walter de Wet.

[Skol]

We just fixed our property loan at 7.7% for three years. Apparently many others are doing roughly the same, despite the floating rate being a lot lower.

But I find Skol's latest post bemusing: take a conservative approach on inflation (but there won't be any??) pay off the house, and then.. buy more property??

You know, if most business-people waited until their house was paid off to start up their own thing, hardly anything would get done around here. And banks don't fund startups, they will lend more money against your property, which they do understand. So as long as you have some capital paid back on your house at current prices, you always have an option to either borrow more in a shortfall, or use that borrowing to start up a business. Grow rich slowly. I just think it's limiting to spend all the energy of your middle years paying off a house, while working as an employee.

Well you check with punters who've got massive mortgages how things are going and interest rates are low. There are record mortgagee sales in NZ and these are people who bought at the top of the market and some fixed their mortgages at 9/10%.
Paying off your mortgage is not as exciting as owning gold but you won't go broke either.
Leverage can make you heaps, it can also send you to the wall.

It's an individual thing how much risk you want to take on but lots of gold punters don't have any idea of the risk, they're amateur economists.

[elZorro]

Well you check with punters who've got massive mortgages how things are going and interest rates are low. There are record mortgagee sales in NZ and these are people who bought at the top of the market and some fixed their mortgages at 9/10%.
Paying off your mortgage is not as exciting as owning gold but you won't go broke either.
Leverage can make you heaps, it can also send you to the wall.

Skol, my post was aimed at those who have a few years of employment behind them, and are ready for a new challenge. They will have a capital gain still there, from property purchases a few years ago. You know I don't like the basic idea of just owning gold, it's as unproductive as paying off your dwelling slowly and painfully. If, during the same time, a business was started and it flourished, the house can be paid off in just a few years from profits. Yes, it's risky, best done with a business edge and a level of certainty in planning.

This thread might help some of us to come to an opinion on the direction of gold prices. On average, posters think it's going up from here. As Skid says, we do need both sides of the story.

[Skol]

So just say the world falls into mass deflation that would mean CASH would increase it's value -debts would be far worse for those the have them (pretty much most of the world) unemployment would increase to record highs ------an most likely their would be another major World War which usually happens as the masses of pissed off populations need to be controlled by the wealthy elites of Nations(which control most governments)----or maybe instead another organised Black death to help reduce the numbers of the pissed of unemployed populations-Spanish flu etc
Many of the world super rich are all for a mass reduction of world population--Gates,buffet,turner,rockefellers,Morgans,rothschil ds,Queen etc

A bad case of paranoia there JB, there's been deflation in Japan for years but nothing like the doomsday scenario you portray has occurred there.

[JBmurc]

I'm talking mass worldwide deflation not mild defaltion of one country more 1930's style

[Skol]

Ok, bad jobs report and gold up $10.00

Gold....safe haven champion of the world.

HC,
When Warren Buffett buys gold bars I'll take it seriously.

[stevo1]

HC,
When Warren Buffett buys gold bars I'll take it seriously.

Thats Golden Skol might have just have slipped Warrens mind .

[Skol]

Gold fever flushes out some strange types all right. There's a thread by a few psychos on Hot Copper that reckons the government is going to confiscate their gold and silver.
Time to take to the bush, bury the gold, set up a perimeter, get out the guns and guard dogs and live off the land.

Be interesting to see how long some of these mummy's boys last as survivalists.

LOL

[peat]

article about Kalgoorlie in the Herald today
a bit of gold history...
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10650097&pnum=0

being a fundamentalist somehow I dont think Warren would like the cash flow associated with gold.

[JBmurc]

Gold only $7 to breaking 1500oz AUD some serious profits for the ASX gold producers

[Skol]

Gold only $7 to breaking 1500oz AUD some serious profits for the ASX gold producers

Why isn't it reflected in the Oz gold miners share price like NAV for example?

[elZorro]

Why isn't it reflected in the Oz gold miners share price like NAV for example?

Don't know about NAV, but OGC eventually held its price today while the All Ords dropped 3%. That's not bad going. There's a bit of a time lag, from uncovering and mining ore, to selling the output, to reporting on it. Smart investors will be using this to advantage.

[JBmurc]

Why isn't it reflected in the Oz gold miners share price like NAV for example?

because the market is driven by fear-- NAV has just become a gold producer so is still got some risk till the profits cash-flows are stated clearly to the market an a exact cost per oz is known---the markets are very bearish even to miners making large profits

[JBmurc]

ASX -GOLD ETFS ---which tracks the gold AUD price closely up 5% today

[Skol]

ASX -GOLD ETFS ---which tracks the gold AUD price closely up 5% today

If things start going badly, will the gold really be there?

XGD doesn't look too healthy.

I'm waiting patiently for the USD to crash JB, lucky I didn't take your advice a while back.

[JBmurc]

--Will the gold be there ETF's some will some will not IMHO I like to hold my own Precious
Marc faber bearish on everything except Precious Metals

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aPZ44PLALmU

[Skol]

--Will the gold be there ETF's some will some will not IMHO I like to hold my own Precious
Marc faber bearish on everything except Precious Metals

Marc Faber has been known to be wrong as have all the 'experts'.
He's predicting bad news including war, not a small one, a big one, which "will be very unpleasant".
You should be buying bonds, cigarette and liquor companies and last but certainly not least, assemblers of war materiel like Boeing, Northrop Grumman, Colt, Ruger, Smith and Wesson, and Winchester (OLN) for the ammo.

I forgot, buy USD in case of war JB.

[airedale]

Hi Skol, I just re-read your first post on this thread from 31/12/09. POG then was about $us1100. Today holding above $us1200. I can't remember the details of your bet with JB but at half way through the year my money is on JB.

[Skol]

Hi Skol, I just re-read your first post on this thread from 31/12/09. POG then was about $us1100. Today holding above $us1200. I can't remember the details of your bet with JB but at half way through the year my money is on JB.

He might win, the price was $1095 without checking, but gold can reverse course very suddenly as the suckers who owned it in 1980 will testify.
My bet is it won't just fade away when the time comes.

[elZorro]

--Will the gold be there ETF's some will some will not IMHO I like to hold my own Precious
Marc faber bearish on everything except Precious Metals

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aPZ44PLALmU

Yep, interesting video clip. I can see why they had Mr Faber on, probably always good for some theatre, but at the same time he makes you consider your options. Not a fan of the politicians is he? But I'm more upset by those running the financial sector, they need controlling. All this money grubbing for what? to buy toys and "stuff" we don't really need past a certain point.

Financial safety and certainty is important, so those who like to hold precious metals, fair enough. It'd be a sad commentary on us all if that's the best we can do for security in these times.

[denpal]

In the last 5 years POG in NZD has gone up 23% pa compound. Same story in Euros. USD, Swiss Francs and Indian Rupees around 21% pa compound. Gold has been and continues to be a very good investment. When that changes, time to sell. Until then, ride the trend as one should always do if you wish to succeed as an investor.

[trackers]

My bet is it won't just fade away when the time comes.

That sounds like something my horoscope or a tarot card reader would say... Whole lotta if buts and maybes without committing to anything there, and in the meantime Gold goes up.

[JBmurc]

Yep well that's whats the smart ones do other's live in the past an can't see the obvious devalue of major fiat currency's because of their failed economic systems of money printing to solve excess debt levels of easy credit

GOLD is the world's reserve currency has been for many hundreds of years an will continue to be respected by all nations as real wealth

AUD- GOLD smashes $1500oz up $48oz!!! to $1530 .........

[ENP]

JB Are you aware of all the mortgage defaults in the US about to happen from now till 2012. A decreasing of the credit (fiat currency) supply, not increasing.

http://blogs.moneyandmarkets.com/red-hot-energy-and-gold/files/2009/02/mortgage-reset.gif

[JBmurc]

JB Are you aware of all the mortgage defaults in the US about to happen from now till 2012. A decreasing of the credit (fiat currency) supply, not increasing.

http://blogs.moneyandmarkets.com/red-hot-energy-and-gold/files/2009/02/mortgage-reset.gif

An you think this will be bullish for the USD? an bearish GOLD- is the main reason we had the first GFC in 08 only this time whe've got the Euro on the ropes aswell where do you think investors will go If the USD an Euro look in even more trouble going forward

[Skol]

When gold goes up it's rah, rah, rah, told you so, when gold goes down a deathly pall settles on this thread.

[JBmurc]

When gold goes up it's rah, rah, rah, told you so, when gold goes down a deathly pall settles on this thread.
much like when GOLD goes down skol Golds going to 400oz watch it fall bah bah like the 1980 crash bah bah LOL

[Skol]

The FT reports that there are record inflow to gold funds, new floats and enquiries from family offices, hedge and pension funds and retail investors.

[elZorro]

The FT reports that there are record inflow to gold funds, new floats and enquiries from family offices, hedge and pension funds and retail investors.

Ahh, that's good for us goldies - right?

NB OGC (finding and mining gold) up 7.5% or more this morning, recovered lost ground on the NZX, wait to see what it does on the ASX. Meanwhile I expect both sharemarkets to generally have a bad day.

[Skol]

Ahh, that's good for us goldies - right?

Aaaaaah, well, at the moment EZ, but you might want to contemplate this excerpt from a book I have here.

"As the investment gathers momentum, it gathers followers. Soon, sophisticated, professional investors like managers of pension and mutual funds dive in. As the price rises, more people try to ride the wave, among them fledgling individual investors who pull money out of the bank in search of bigger returns. The media trumpets the investment's accelerating rise. Eventually everyone knows the story, the last dollar is in and the ripple fades into nothingness."

[Lego_Man]

Aaaaaah, well, at the moment EZ, but you might want to contemplate this excerpt from a book I have here.

"As the investment gathers momentum, it gathers followers. Soon, sophisticated, professional investors like managers of pension and mutual funds dive in. As the price rises, more people try to ride the wave, among them fledgling individual investors who pull money out of the bank in search of bigger returns. The media trumpets the investment's accelerating rise. Eventually everyone knows the story, the last dollar is in and the ripple fades into nothingness."

Translation - the "bubble" is not in its late stage of life cycle yet, ergo you should still be in (or get in).

[ENP]

Do you have a crystal ball at home Lego Man?

[shasta]

ENP

This so called "Gold Bubble" will continue trending up in the mean time due to a few factors:

1. Demand - try & source the physical stuff, it's not that easy to find & when you do it's at a hefty premium
2. $US weakening, now has the PoG > $A1500/oz
3. Europe debt worries, as more countries face up to the truth about there debt
4. US payroll figures disappointed the market, showing the US recovery is slower than analysts predicted

I did predict earlier in the thread i though Gold would hit $US1250 & then retrace a bit (it's had a very bullish run)

No one is saying Gold will go up forever, cos just like shares, property, bonds, interest rates they all follow an economic cycle, it's just with all the uncertainly at present Gold's value holds as a nature hedge against the $US.

When Europe sorts its mess out & the US recovery kicks in, Gold wont be so attractive as a short term investment.

[ENP]

So you do realise that it's going to pop, but you are just riding it up in the mean time?

[shasta]

So you do realise that it's going to pop, but you are just riding it up in the mean time?

Exactly just like a TA chartist works, when theres strength in the buying & its going up you jump in, when it starts it's inevitable decline you get out.

Gold will take a breather at some stage, the steeper the rise, the more chance of a retrace, not sure on a TA basis where the levels of support are, perhaps $US1100/oz, & there would be psychological (if not technical) support at $US1000/oz

[Phaedrus]

Not sure on a TA basis where the levels of support are......Here you are Shasta :-

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/Gold68.gif

[shasta]

Thanks for that Phaedrus, appreciate your work

[peat]

Some say that it will push to $1346 before it ends

[Lego_Man]

Do you have a crystal ball at home Lego Man?

No...you wrote up a quote (presumably agreeing with it) and i made a logical extension based on what the guy was saying.

[elZorro]

As foretold by the red squiggly line on a graph, and as a result of my paucity of intellect..I humbly post..


7 June 2010 (Kitco reports)
Walter de Wet, CFA*
Walter.DeWet@standardbank.com
Leon Westgate*
Leon.Westgate@standardbank.com

Focus: The sharp deterioration in market sentiment over the past week or so triggered a wave
of long liquidation across the base metals complex as investors headed for the exit.

With a run of positive US macro data also coming to an end last week, and mounting concerns over the European sovereign debt crisis, that episode of long liquidation has since given way to outright selling.

The only metal to so far avoid fresh aggressive selling interest is nickel.

• Friday’s weakness has continued into this morning, with the base metals coming under
heavy pressure during overnight trade. Better than expected German Factory Orders
have helped to shore up the Euro however, with the metals picking up heading into the
afternoon.
• Gold was the prime beneficiary from Friday afternoon’s panic, closing the week at
$1,219.90/oz. Given the continuing uncertainty in the markets and concern over Europe,
gold will likely continue benefit from its safe haven status and from any further bouts of
market jitters.
• Crude oil came under heavy pressure on Friday, with front month WTI closing over 4%
lower. In spite of the fall however, WTI remains rangebound.

[JBmurc]

Gold has just made a new short term high in current price $1245!!!................till tomorrow 1250+ here we come for the all time high of 1249 then onwards ....1300+ before the years out
and as for the Gold doomers it not going crash just because it's at a high price remember if you add in true Inflation to the 1980 highs GOLD's far from high in Inflation adjusted terms an if you add in the state of the world's fiat systems GOLD is only just starting to gain some traction
Yes their will be a time when the GOLD market will go nuts an go up $100+ in 24hrs an in time there will be a blow-off IMHO north of 2,000 which could see it correct $300-$500 downwards but much like the platinum market of recent years it will hit a point buyers will outway sellers an back north it will go
I'll be very surprised if we see GOLD priced in the hundreds of dollars ever again

[elZorro]

JB, that was prophetic, gold climbing like a rocket past US$1251 before dropping back just now. You'd better get one of those fancy metal detectors before they're all sold out :)

[JBmurc]

JB, that was prophetic, gold climbing like a rocket past US$1251 before dropping back just now. You'd better get one of those fancy metal detectors before they're all sold out :)

LOL yeah looks like GOLD's starting to breakout has really moved over the last few days --the naked shorters will be getting badly burnt

[stevo1]

HC,
When Warren Buffett buys gold bars I'll take it seriously.

Skol heres some of Warrens "wisdom" for you

"The entire American public eventually was caught up in a belief that housing prices could not fall dramatically"
"And Freddie Mac believed it, Fannie Mae believed it, Congress believed it, the media believed it, I believed it."
"I mean there were many red and yellow flashing lights along the way."
They made the wrong call. I mean they basically believed, as most of the American public did, that you couldn't have had this size bubble," he said.

"And the Cassandras were there, but who was going to listen to John Paulson in 2005 or 2006 or Michael Burry. I mean it didn't mean anything.
"And, you know, look at me. I mean I was wrong on it too. I recognised that something pretty dramatic was going on in housing but I actually called it, in the annual meeting when I got a question on it, a bubblette. Well that was a terrible term to use. It was a four-star bubble."Warren Buffett's grilling was a reluctant one. He was subpoenaed after rejecting an initial invitation
fu;l article here
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/06/03/2917326.htm

[Skol]

ENP

This so called "Gold Bubble" will continue trending up in the mean time due to a few factors:

1. Demand - try & source the physical stuff, it's not that easy to find & when you do it's at a hefty premium
2. $US weakening, now has the PoG > $A1500/oz

What USD weakening?
USD is up against EUR and the USd index is up, and has been for months.
Lucky I don't listen to the advice I'm getting here, like, from JBMurc to sell the USD some time back, that would have cost me heaps.
There's actually some very good contrarian warnings on this thread if you can see past the gung-ho "gold is going through the roof" nonsense.

[peat]

Yes you're right there Skol , but what makes the POG so interesting is that it has been going up IN THE FACE of the USD strengthening. They are usually negatively corelated so imagine if the USD does start weakening , (which is what I think will start to happen soon-ish)

[Skol]

Exactly just like a TA chartist works, when theres strength in the buying & its going up you jump in, when it starts it's inevitable decline you get out.

If you look at the chart there might be a double top, since you mention TA, and you know what that means.

[JBmurc]

Yes you're right there Skol , but what makes the POG so interesting is that it has been going up IN THE FACE of the USD strengthening. They are usually negatively corelated so imagine if the USD does start weakening , (which is what I think will start to happen soon-ish)

Yes the USD is on borrowed time or in fact FED free money time long term USD holders will be burnt to much debt not enough real GDP

Skol can't find the post I told you to sell your USD but yes I wouldn't buy USD paper you go ahead load up the truck the FED will happily keep the free money coming to keep the failed economic mess alive till the new world currency comes about...
the EURO problems been the biggest positive for the USD till the world see's the USD is in just as much trouble like many of the worlds Fiat high debt currencies

[shasta]

If you look at the chart there might be a double top, since you mention TA, and you know what that means.

Yes, & i did say i expected Gold would hit around $1250/oz then retrace, it aint always going to go up!

I used the $US weakening as a reason the gold price was going up, since the payroll figures came out the $US has strengthened.

I'm not a gold bug, if anything i'm bullish on silver

[Skol]

I'm not a gold bug, if anything i'm bullish on silver

We've had all this precious metals action but silver is still the same price it was 2 years ago.

Goldbugs keep referring to the ^HUI, (not recently though), doesn't look good.

[shasta]

We've had all this precious metals action but silver is still the same price it was 2 years ago.

Goldbugs keep referring to the ^HUI, (not recently though), doesn't look good.

Yeah, silver is like the last person to arrive at the party, but either gold is over valued or silver is under valued - take ya pick!

Very few large silver mines, most of it comes as a by product of zinc/lead mines

[JBmurc]

We've had all this precious metals action but silver is still the same price it was 2 years ago.

Goldbugs keep referring to the ^HUI, (not recently though), doesn't look good.


Yep thanks to the Naked shorters of round 200moz silver----for the last 16 yrs silver production has not got close to demand an as of recent years has been as high as 200moz+ short but thanks to government sales (all but gone now) an the huge amount recycled (which is also on the decline) added with major US bankers shorting along with the Silver Users Association (anti-free silver marketers backed by some of the worlds biggest silver consumers)has helped keep the price under control ----It's only matter of time before it breaks free

[Skol]

Yep thanks to the Naked shorters of round 200moz silver----for the last 16 yrs silver production has not got close to demand an as of recent years has been as high as 200moz+ short but thanks to government sales (all but gone now) an the huge amount recycled (which is also on the decline) added with major US bankers shorting along with the Silver Users Association (anti-free silver marketers backed by some of the worlds biggest silver consumers)has helped keep the price under control ----It's only matter of time before it breaks free

It's the banksters, right, it's someone elses fault that gold and silver aren't going through the roof.

Which banksters?
Which bank?
Which countries banksters?

Can you be a little more specific?

[JBmurc]

The USA --the country that has the world reserve an the most to lose if PGM esp Gold /silver took a more important status worldwide a the true international currency which it is.
Banks--Bank of America,JP morgan

Or how about -- DYOR ---or if your not good at that I've posted penalty on Silver Vs USD forex

[Skol]

I've done a bit of DYOR recently.

^HUI down.
Gold shares down.
XGD level pegging.
USD up.
TA not looking good on ETF's.
Double top?

Guess what's next?

[JBmurc]

How about DYOR ---on total US,UK,euro debts to GDP---What is the FED reserve --amount of silver above ground in stockpiles--profit levels of gold producers at current price levels
do some study on these might open your eyes to the whats really going on
remember it wasn't long ago you were telling me gold would not be going above 1095 an would fall as the US economy was recovering an all Gold holders will be trying to get out so they can convert to fiat currencys LOL

[Skol]

Gonna be a good day on the ASX but a bad day for the semi-useless soft metal and related shares.

Here's something for the optimists that say China is buying up gold.


June 10, 2010,
China says gold not suitable for forex holdings.
Asia Pacific Story
By Chris Oliver HONG KONG (MarketWatch) --

China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange, the regulator which oversees the nation's nearly $2.5 trillion foreign exchange stockpile, said Thursday that the gold market is too small, illiquid and volatile to be considered suitable for asset allocation, according to a Reuters report. The Reuters story cited comments that appeared in the regulator's annual forex management report for 2009, which was published on its website Thursday. Safe did not give an update on its gold holdings, which rose to 1,054 tons last year from 600 tons in 2003, as a result of purchases of local production. Safe also said in the annual report that it plans to improve the diverisfication strategy for the management of China's reserves, including the range of asset classes it believes are suitable. It did not provide details.

[JBmurc]

PGM
Gold 1216.70 -0.08%
Platinum 1534.00 +0.52%
Palladium 450.00 +0.67%
Rhodium 2390.00 -1.65%
Silver 18.22 -0.02%

-Jon Nadler is a idiot---On the day when gold hit an intermediate low around 690, Nadler was predicting 480. Instead it's gone past 1250 I wouldn't trust a kitco paid employee

OCT-09 gold price --$1040
Miners have dumped $40 billion into new projects since 2001, the magazine notes. Output is up 7 percent in just the first six months of the year. Meanwhile, industrial demand is falling on a weak economy. Simultaneously, retail investors have dropped billions into gold via ETFs in hopes of a big payday ahead. As a result, gold now has "some of the poorest fundamentals I've seen in the market for a long time," Kitco analyst Jon Nadler told the magazine. Kitco is a bullion dealer in Montreal. - Money News

[peat]

We've had all this precious metals action but silver is still the same price it was 2 years ago.

My thoughts on reading this were that retaining value in a climate of mass deflation is actually pretty good! So here I did a graph of Silver in NZD and AUD compared to the NZ and Aussie stock markets over the last three years.
Which would you have rather have been invested in???

[Skol]

My thoughts on reading this were that retaining value in a climate of mass deflation is actually pretty good! So here I did a graph of Silver in NZD and AUD compared to the NZ and Aussie stock markets over the last three years.
Which would you have rather have been invested in???

The stockmarket. Gold and silver are, like the Chinese say, illiquid. Not too many gold or silver shares have outperformed, one or two maybe but that's it.

Have you taken your silver to your local bullion dealer and cashed it in?

[peat]

trade me works fine for selling silver and we see transactions taking place all the time. at well ABOVE the prices in my graph too which are based on spot whereas on TM theres generally a 10-30% premium so I'm actually undervaluing it by using spot.
Still I have no interest in convincing you Skol, you would appear to be quite staunch in your perspective.

[Skol]

TradeMe?
That's about as illiquid as you can get, selling to a few dozen punters. Shares sell to thousands and the stockmarket will outperform silver, I'm certain of that.

[elZorro]

TradeMe?
That's about as illiquid as you can get, selling to a few dozen punters. Shares sell to thousands and the stockmarket will outperform silver, I'm certain of that.

You were right Skol, so far today the ASX is doing well, but OGC is not, has dropped a little with the current POG.

But, if I was to be investing my life savings for a two year period in either 'standard' shares, a gold miner or in gold/silver(keeping it simple) what would your recommendation be in the current climate?

[peat]

the stockmarket will outperform silver, I'm certain of that.
so certain of something that is wrong?
you're obviously not open to FACTS skol because I just showed you that Silver has outperformed the stockmarket for three whole years.... so as I said you're perspective is fixed and hence dialogue is pointless.

[Skol]

You were right Skol, so far today the ASX is doing well, but OGC is not, has dropped a little with the current POG.

But, if I was to be investing my life savings for a two year period in either 'standard' shares, a gold miner or in gold/silver(keeping it simple) what would your recommendation be in the current climate?

First of all I wouldn't buy gold or silver shares, gold has gone up for several years in a row and the end is in sight. Apart from that they're extremely volatile.
I'd pick up some cheap quality, liquid, big cap shares.
During the recent downturn, I've bought SGP and TOL.

You could try AAC, now there's a commodity that's actually useful.

[Skol]

so certain of something that is wrong?
you're obviously not open to FACTS skol because I just showed you that Silver has outperformed the stockmarket for three whole years.... so as I said you're perspective is fixed and hence dialogue is pointless.

I'm not going to put my hard-earned cash into chunks of metal that buy and sell on TradeMe, I'll take my chances elsewhere thanks. You're right, I've got a completely closed mind to that form of investment.

I notice it's gone pretty quiet on the AUD gold price front, and how it's great news for the Aussie gold miners. AUD up 4c in the last few days against USD.

[denpal]

skol, 23% compound year after year......................

[elZorro]

First of all I wouldn't buy gold or silver shares, gold has gone up for several years in a row and the end is in sight. Apart from that they're extremely volatile.
I'd pick up some cheap quality, liquid, big cap shares.
During the recent downturn, I've bought SGP and TOL.

You could try AAC, now there's a commodity that's actually useful.

Skol, sorry for the loaded question, realise it would be hard to find a good share to compare with OGC or other miners.

Two of those appear to be flat-lining without a pulse, and the other one (TOL) is dropping like a stone. Even now it has a P/E over 18, and NTA about 1/4 of its price. OGC has P/E under 10, NTA 2/3 of its price.

And I expect OGC will be revalued upwards any day now, when they quite simply announce more evidence of gold in the ground. They have no issues with sales, all production is taken.

But I will keep an eye on your recommendations, thanks.

[airedale]

Hi Skol, Wot, no airlines ?? :(.

[JBmurc]

I'm not going to put my hard-earned cash into chunks of metal that buy and sell on TradeMe, I'll take my chances elsewhere thanks. You're right, I've got a completely closed mind to that form of investment.

I notice it's gone pretty quiet on the AUD gold price front, and how it's great news for the Aussie gold miners. AUD up 4c in the last few days against USD.
That cause I've been up the mountain snowboarding the AUD gold price is still at 1441 anything above 1200 AUD is great for ASX gold producers
also great to see Silver at 21.68oz AUD
Yeah Your right on the closed mind LOL

[Skol]

Skol, sorry for the loaded question, realise it would be hard to find a good share to compare with OGC or other miners.

Two of those appear to be flat-lining without a pulse, and the other one (TOL) is dropping like a stone. Even now it has a P/E over 18, and NTA about 1/4 of its price. OGC has P/E under 10, NTA 2/3 of its price.

And I expect OGC will be revalued upwards any day now, when they quite simply announce more evidence of gold in the ground. They have no issues with sales, all production is taken.

But I will keep an eye on your recommendations, thanks.

Yeah OGC down 7, TOL up 11.
Bought TOL at 5.71 & SGP at 3.62, not exactly 'flatlining' how about a bit more objectivity in your posts.

TOL P/E is 13.5 and DY 4.3% . OGC DY zero and P/E 51.8. Good luck.

What 'other miners'?

[Skol]

Hi Skol, Wot, no airlines ?? :(.

Emirates have just ordered another 32 A380's to bring their total to 90. Yep, no future in aviation, right?

[elZorro]

Yeah OGC down 7, TOL up 11.
Bought TOL at 5.71 & SGP at 3.62, not exactly 'flatlining' how about a bit more objectivity in your posts.

TOL P/E is 13.5 and DY 4.3% . OGC DY zero and P/E 51.8. Good luck.

What 'other miners'?

OK Skol, I see you have used TA to buy in at good prices there, and will probably not be holding long. I'm not good enough at TA to do that yet, and believe me I've been trying :cool:

I've had more success using an FA approach and selecting shares in a good company backed by upside potential. Where did you get a P/E of 51.8 for OGC from? All the exchanges OGC trades in are around or under 10 in their info section. You have to admit they also back their price with assets. DY, not yet, but we're expecting one in a year or two. Are you in long enough with your picks to worry?

Other goldmining shares: I have to be selective over the last 6 months, but your picks wouldn't be so good on this test: See SMF (Semafo) on TSX, overpriced now and expect a sharp correction like today, but has been a great share for over a year, and NEM (Newmont) solid uptrend for 6 months.

We must look again at these in a month or two, should be interesting.

[Skol]

Where did you get a P/E of 51.8 for OGC from?
From ASB Securities website, average sector P/E 14.5. OGC punters must be expecting some good news.

Are you and I looking at the same info? NEM the same price as a year ago.

[elZorro]

From ASB Securities website, average sector P/E 14.5. OGC punters must be expecting some good news.

Are you and I looking at the same info? NEM the same price as a year ago.

Heh Heh, damned lies and statistics.. ASB site must be in error over OGC (good bank though). They must have an unusual equation for the P/E ratio, and the books for OGC have been a bit upset by their hedging repayment.
I was careful to note NEM trended up in the last 6 months, and no, it's not so exciting anyway.

Note, I'm looking a bit futher ahead with these shares.

I've just had some other goldminers on the TSX pointed out: ANO, AND, FRG, PG . All these are spectacular.

[Skol]

More contrarian statistics released by FT.

There's a huge shortage of vault capacity to store all the demand for investment gold which doubled to 1820 tonnes, mostly for demand from ETF's.

More vaults are being built, a nice way to milk the goldbugs.

Jewellery demand fell 23% to 1687 tonnes, a 21 year low.

[elZorro]

More contrarian statistics released by FT.

There's a huge shortage of vault capacity to store all the demand for investment gold which doubled to 1820 tonnes, mostly for demand from ETF's.

Jewellery demand fell 23% to 1687 tonnes, a 21 year low.

Telegram for Skol ;)

----------------------------------MESSAGE--------------------------------------------------------
Skol - Bitterly disappointed no reply to my post STOP
Have attached link re other good uses for gold STOP
http://geology.com/minerals/gold/uses-of-gold.shtml
I'm sure you're hoarding lots of useless stuff in your garage just like the rest of us.. STOP
----------------------------------END-----------------------------------------------------------------

[Skol]

Actually EZ I was contemplating the Peak Oil thread this morning, now going for 4 years with punters like tricha hunkering down for peak oil armageddon, which, oddly enough hasn't arrived, nor will it.

Peak oil is as dead as a dodo.

The peak oil mob have been replaced by the goldbug craze.

I know economic predictions are notoriously fickle and difficult but maybe you could hazard a guess when this USD, fiat money, hyperinflation, mega-catastrophe will strike so I can prepare.

I do have a single wire electric fence around my property which will keep Alan Bollard at bay and stop him from confiscating any gold I may purchase in preparation for this cataclysm, but it's the hordes striking out from the cities eyeing up my Herefords when steaks are $20,000kg thats really got me worried.

[elZorro]

Skol, you painted a hardcase picture.
It's the comments you don't reply to, which make me think (we're) winning this battle.. expect to see you buying goldminers on Monday..

I don't think things will get too bad, petrol will just become more expensive to the point you have to think twice before every trip in the car. And I still think we should get overseas travel in now, before lots of aircraft get laid up. Plenty for you there..

Attention needs to be turned away from luxury goods and onto more urgent work on securing new, safer, energy supplies. The Gulf oil leak will only help with that, it's a good thing.

[Aotea]

Hi all,
Have been reading this thread and enjoyed the bull-headedness of some..who knows where gold is going. All I can say is the CEO of a large ozzie gold mining company presented to OGC peeps that he believes gold will break AUD$1,200 an oz. Could be optimistisc, who knows. I know I bought my OGC shares at 37c NZ and am laughing all the way to the bank. Am very pleased you jumped on board the OGC train too EZ!!

Personally, apart from loving digging the stuff out of the ground, I truely do believe there is more to the gold buzz than what we have seen..she isnt going to fizz out in the near future IMHO anyway...am happy to buy into gold, and have just bought into a real prospect due to list in the coming months. Once its listed I will give anyone who cares my thoughts on them...

Guts is, no-one knows, and it takes a chump to go making too many bold statements about where it goes...it is a funny commodity and to be fair, no-one really knows where it is going do they?

[elZorro]

Aotea: thanks for the info: and the price of the AUD gold will be?
I wish I had looked a lot harder at OGC when you first mentioned it. Had a dabble a couple of times, before investing properly. There's still a long way to go there IMHO.

Will wait to hear about the new listing.

[Skol]

Skol, you painted a hardcase picture.
It's the comments you don't reply to, which make me think (we're) winning this battle.. expect to see you buying goldminers on Monday..

I don't think things will get too bad, petrol will just become more expensive to the point you have to think twice before every trip in the car. And I still think we should get overseas travel in now, before lots of aircraft get laid up. Plenty for you there..
You don't need to worry about the aviation business, I'm busier than I have been in years, buy your tickets now before the recovery takes place because you're going to be paying a lot more.

I've heard all the implosion, peak oil, armageddon, aviation's dead, hyperinflation, USD crash stuff for years and still waiting and will be for a long time.

You don't seem to appreciate that inflation will be the death knell for gold because it doesn't pay interest, so when prices move up guess where gold's going?

[Aotea]

Skol, what you say about inflation and gold looking into the future may be a fair guess, but the guts is if you compare inflation v gold price since 1980, the graphs do not support your claim. They do, and can operate mutually dependently...and Im sure gold will continue to do so.
No-one knows how it operates, even gurus like Warren Buffet dont understand its behaviour..so my advice is to take anyones advice on gold with a grain of salt.

[COLIN]

Again I come back to the point that investing in gold can be viewed as a form of insurance against the vagaries of the financial market place. Actually I wouldn't be too bothered if the value of my gold shares slowly declined as this would indicate to me that confidence was returning to the other markets. Look at it this way: Do you regard all those insurance premiums you have paid, over the years, as a "wrong decision" simply because your house hasn't burnt down, your car hasn't been wrecked, or your other prized possessions stolen? Of course not. Given your time over again, you would make exactly the same decision. So, what "insurance" do you have in place to protect the value of your financial assets?

[Skol]

Do you think many people took out this 'insurance' between 1980 and 2005 or is this a recent phenomenon?

Suckers always chase the big returns.

[JBmurc]

You really do have to be a complete Muppet to think humans are just going stop respecting precious metals as a form of real wealth an high value an just forget thousands of years of respect because people like Skol say so---- it's just going lose massive value overnight because the Fiat currency economics are so sound right now LOL .........

Because gold is highly valued and in very limited supply it has long been used as a medium of exchange or money. The first known use of gold in transactions dates back about 6000 years---------------------------------

The Swiss Franc was based on a full gold convertibility until 2000. However, gold reserves are held in significant quantity by many nations as a means of defending their currency, and hedging against the U.S. Dollar, which forms the bulk of liquid currency reserves. Weakness in the U.S. Dollar tends to be offset by strengthening of gold prices. Gold remains a principal financial asset of almost all central banks alongside foreign currencies and government bonds. It is also held by central banks as a way of hedging against loans to their own governments as an "internal reserve"

Hard currency or strong currency, in economics, refers to a globally traded currency that can serve as a reliable and stable store of value. Factors contributing to a currency's hard status can include political stability, low inflation, consistent monetary and fiscal policies, backing by reserves of precious metals, and long-term stable or upward-trending valuation against other currencies on a trade-weighted basis.

[Skol]

Yeah, nice historical dissertation JB, heard it all before.

In the internet age where money can flash around the world in seconds chunks of metal are something of an anachronism.
You say gold is a principal financial asset of of almost all central banks.
I beg to disagree.
The US has 8133 tons.
Germany has 2422 tons.
France has 2710 tons.
Japan has 756 tons.

In relation to their overall foreign exchange reserves their gold reserves are miniscule.

[shasta]

Yeah, nice historical dissertation JB, heard it all before.

In the internet age where money can flash around the world in seconds chunks of metal are something of an anachronism.
You say gold is a principal financial asset of of almost all central banks.
I beg to disagree.
The US has 8133 tons.
Germany has 2422 tons.
France has 2710 tons.
Japan has 756 tons.

In relation to their overall foreign exchange reserves their gold reserves are miniscule.

You have conveniently forgotten the two countries behind most of the more recent buying, India & China there retail demand has helped keep pushing the gold price up

[elZorro]

Skol has recently been overseas. Was he in Belgium?

http://www.google.co.nz/imgres?imgurl=http://nunetherlands.files.wordpress.com/2008/11/gold_bars_stacked_in_a_vault.jpg&imgrefurl=http://nunetherlands.wordpress.com/2008/11/03/belgian-robbed-of-44-kilos-of-gold/&usg=__vAH_ABcDkPd4SoltdOlH7IK1EFc=&h=500&w=344&sz=33&hl=en&start=5&itbs=1&tbnid=IxSxs3amZUeARM:&tbnh=130&tbnw=89&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dgold%2Bbars%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DG%26gbv% 3D2%26tbs%3Disch:1

[Skol]

You have conveniently forgotten the two countries behind most of the more recent buying, India & China there retail demand has helped keep pushing the gold price up

You've got that one wrong, China has 1054 tonnes, absolutely miniscule/foreign reserves, has increased its reserves by purchasing nationally mined gold over the last 10 years.

[Skol]

Skol has recently been overseas. Was he in Belgium?
I think JB actually lives in New York.

Recession anxiety!


Jewelry store employee accused of stealing $12M in gold in purse told family of recession anxiety
BY Joe Kemp and Nicole Bode
DAILY NEWS WRITERS

Friday, May 1st 2009, 1:03 AM


Jewelry store employee, Teresa Tambunting, arrested for stealing gold in purse lining over six yearsA Scarsdale mom told relatives she was terrified of the recession - even though cops say she had $12 million in gold and gems stashed in her basement.

Teresa Tambunting - accused of stealing millions in bling from her job at a Queens jewelry store - revealed her fears at a Christmas dinner, relatives said.

Tambunting's husband, Edgardo, works at Cantor Fitzgerald, and they complained that 2008 hit them hard.

"I was there at Christmas. They were saying this was one of their worst years, but this year is [going to be] much better," said nephew Gregorio Perez, 28.

Despite this optimism, Perez said, they were afraid Wall Street turmoil would force Edgardo Tambunting to change jobs.

"This recession is hurting everybody. I know they hit a rough patch," Perez said. Tambunting is the youngest of eight brothers and sisters, he said.

All the while, Tambunting, her husband and their three teenage kids were sitting atop a quarter-ton treasure trove of raw gold and jewelry that Mom hoarded in buckets in the basement of her tony home, prosecutors said.

Perez has memories of playing in that basement a decade ago - when the only things stashed there were kids' toys and power tools, he said.

"We used to go over there a lot," Perez said, "They welcomed us in, any time we needed. She was always a generous aunt to us, me and my sister and brother."

Tambunting, 50, spent six years building the secret fortune by slipping small pieces of gold and jewelry in the lining of her purse, prosecutors said.

The long heist came to an end in February, when her bosses at Jacmel Jewelry discovered during an audit that $12 million in merchandise and gold chunks were missing from the vault, prosecutors said.

Tambunting, the vault manager since 1991, started working at the company shortly after its formation in 1977 and most recently earned $165,000 a year, law enforcement sources said.

Soon after the audit, Tambunting came to work dragging 80 pounds of fine gold and jewelry in a rolling suitcase - confessing to one of her bosses that she "had to steal it," law enforcement sources said.

The rest of the 500-pound stash was returned to the company from her home, Jacmel President Jack Rahmey said.

Tambunting was arraigned on grand larceny charges Wednesday and released on $100,000 bail.

She is said to be mulling a defense that includes a form of obsessive-compulsive disorder, law enforcement sources said. Her lawyer David Kirby did not return calls for comment.

[elZorro]

Skol, are you saying JB has a obsessive-compulsive disorder? Not sure about that, he might be a bit slap-happy with spelling though :p

I can see that you're unhappy with both the idea of people hoarding gold, and the low levels of it stored worldwide. It is being used up in cellphones (50c per unit) and electronic goods too, don't forget, lost eventually to the waste stream.

Are we all suckers for chasing the easy money with gold/mining shares when we should be learning the craft of TA? Please put up a share to compare with OGC for next week. Monday-Friday, NZ or AU market only :cool:

[shasta]

You've got that one wrong, China has 1054 tonnes, absolutely miniscule/foreign reserves, has increased its reserves by purchasing nationally mined gold over the last 10 years.

I didn't get it wrong, because i wasn't talking about what the Govt's held, i was referring to there "retail investors" buying up gold

[Skol]

I didn't get it wrong, because i wasn't talking about what the Govt's held, i was referring to there "retail investors" buying up gold

What retail investors buying up gold? Evidence?

[Skol]

Skol, are you saying JB has a obsessive-compulsive disorder? Not sure about that, he might be a bit slap-happy with spelling though :p

I can see that you're unhappy with both the idea of people hoarding gold, and the low levels of it stored worldwide. It is being used up in cellphones (50c per unit) and electronic goods too, don't forget, lost eventually to the waste stream.

Are we all suckers for chasing the easy money with gold/mining shares when we should be learning the craft of TA? Please put up a share to compare with OGC for next week. Monday-Friday, NZ or AU market only :cool:

I don't care what people do with their money, if they want to put into chunks of metal fine with me, it's the debate I enjoy, trying to poke holes in some of the absurd arguments gold bugs put forward. The latest one on HC is that the bugs think the Aussie Govt will confiscate their gold.

They love to hang on to ancient historical precedents that no longer apply. Goldbugs love 'gurus' to do their thinking for them.

I've seen a post from someone that reckons he's thrown everything at gold, including mortgaging the house.

The present gold craze has all the classic hallmarks of herd instinct at work, and as a student of such behaviour I find it quite fascinating. I'm not intending to change goldbugs crowd behaviour because when herd gets up a head of steam it takes an awful lot to stop it.

How about ENV vs OGC for the week?
ASX is closed today I believe.

[JBmurc]

LOL I don't hold any physical gold only a couple gold shares I do hold Silver bullion an continue to buy as financials allow spending 550k on building a new house so only a kilo a month at the moment
-Silver is by far the most undervalued of the PGM
-Gold will only go higher from here we will see 1300+ this year IMHO

-so me old PGM hater Skol please explain In your opining how-
#1- we are in a gold craze (what your seeing investors lining up at the NZmint,people are talking about gold all the time on the news,radio-Taxi drivers telling you to buy etc etc)
#2-Why investors that have brought an held PGM will want to turn round an start a selling mania driving the price to new 10yr lows(like you seem to believe,I sure back in the day gold was priced at $300oz an it went to $500oz there would have been many Skol crying it was over-brought a relic)
#3-How countries like the US that have massive unfunded liabilities 70trillion+ an only gross GDP of 14trillion turn their growing debt bubble round into sound economic economy without mass Inflation

[elZorro]

I don't care what people do with their money, if they want to put into chunks of metal fine with me, it's the debate I enjoy, trying to poke holes in some of the absurd arguments gold bugs put forward. The latest one on HC is that the bugs think the Aussie Govt will confiscate their gold.

They love to hang on to ancient historical precedents that no longer apply. Goldbugs love 'gurus' to do their thinking for them.

I've seen a post from someone that reckons he's thrown everything at gold, including mortgaging the house.

The present gold craze has all the classic hallmarks of herd instinct at work, and as a student of such behaviour I find it quite fascinating. I'm not intending to change goldbugs crowd behaviour because when herd gets up a head of steam it takes an awful lot to stop it.

How about ENV vs OGC for the week?
ASX is closed today I believe.

Ok Skol, you're on..sorry about one day's trading loss..flat out today but will post more later.

[shasta]

What retail investors buying up gold? Evidence?

We seem to be going around in circles, usually i admire your arguments re Peak Oil etc, but you seem incapable of accepting it when you are wrong

I've already posted about the retail investor frenzy on buying Gold in China, it was on the news both TV1 & TV3, a week or two ago.

Yes, it's only retail investors but they were grabbing everything available to them, & i did question at the time who was selling it.

I could post links all night off kitco - but you will only dimss them as "Gold Bugs" to suit your argument!

[Skol]

We seem to be going around in circles, usually i admire your arguments re Peak Oil etc, but you seem incapable of accepting it when you are wrong

I've already posted about the retail investor frenzy on buying Gold in China, it was on the news both TV1 & TV3, a week or two ago.

Yes, it's only retail investors but they were grabbing everything available to them, & i did question at the time who was selling it.

I could post links all night off kitco - but you will only dimss them as "Gold Bugs" to suit your argument!

You could well be right, I haven't seen any evidence, but to me, if you're correct, that's just another contrarian warning. The internet is littered with gold websites like Kitco.

PS.
Everyone thought I was wrong on peak oil too.

[elZorro]

Posted by Skol: How about ENV vs OGC for the week?
ASX is closed today I believe.

A good comparison Skol, ENV has about the same Mcap, its results a bit up and down, and nothing much happened with OGC today anyway. Maybe the TSX will kick it along...

OGC starts at NZ$4.30 AU$3.49 (Friday close)
ENV starts at AU$0.50

Let the race begin..

Regards.

[JBmurc]

You could well be right, I haven't seen any evidence, but to me, if you're correct, that's just another contrarian warning. The internet is littered with gold websites like Kitco.

PS.
Everyone thought I was wrong on peak oil too.

an isn't oil just tanking of late $74bbl --watched a doco on Nat Geo last night "after oil" was a very interesting on what will happen if mankind don't cut the huge dependence on crude oil
like many things humans take for granted till it's mostly gone even gold one day will be all but mined out silver could well be mostly gone at the end of this decade after 5000yr+ of being mined

[Skol]

an isn't oil just tanking of late $74bbl --watched a doco on Nat Geo last night "after oil" was a very interesting on what will happen if mankind don't cut the huge dependence on crude oil
like many things humans take for granted till it's mostly gone even gold one day will be all but mined out silver could well be mostly gone at the end of this decade after 5000yr+ of being mined

I can absolutely positively inform you that the world will not run out of silver in the next decade.
Alarmists such as yourself are a traditional historical phenomenon, there's always someone saying the world's running out of something and they have done for hundreds of years, it's nothing new.
The world is running out of:
fish
timber
oil
uranium
water
food
silver
phosphorus
platinum
ad infinitum.

But has it?

I forgot, apparently it's running out of gold too.

[JBmurc]

No your right Skol we will never run out of anything here on earth right we can just take an take an we will just keep discovery more an more never mind the facts & massive increasing costs once all the low fruit is picked ............. ignorance is bliss......Now why was BP drilling thousands of feet under the water,if theres so much easy oil to extract??

Mineralogy -newscientist-

http://www.newscientist.com/data/images/archive/2605/26051202.jpg

When I say mostly gone I personal don't see Silver becoming extinct as such but so much more precious than it has been treated of late much like Gold silver once it's price is alot higher than today will be held in vaults as a store of wealth --mining costs will only go much much higher as the Oceans will be explored,mined(much like oil is today)maybe even one day other planets will be mined...if the human race lasts that long

[elZorro]

No your right Skol we will never run out of anything here on earth right we can just take an take an we will just keep discovery more an more never mind the facts & massive increasing costs once all the low fruit is picked ............. ignorance is bliss......Now why was BP drilling thousands of feet under the water,if theres so much easy oil to extract??

Mineralogy -newscientist-

http://www.newscientist.com/data/images/archive/2605/26051202.jpg

Yep, what JB said: I have found it pays not to read New Scientist if you want to sleep easy. It's very scary finding out how much the human race expects from the planet, and what a mess it's getting into.

[JBmurc]

- According to David Rosenberg, "There is no doubt that gold can easily double from here. Demand is always difficult to forecast ... but central banks bought more gold last year (425 tons) than at any other time since 1964. (Furthermore) the supply backdrop supports a sustained bull market, as production has fallen in 5 of the last 8 years. We know what the marginal cost curve is doing because there is so little cheap supply left in the ground that gold companies now have to drill as much as 2.3 miles to get to the yellow metal in South Africa (and all Bernanke has to do is press a button)."

[trackers]

No your right Skol we will never run out of anything here on earth right we can just take an take an we will just keep discovery more an more never mind the facts & massive increasing costs once all the low fruit is picked ............. ignorance is bliss......Now why was BP drilling thousands of feet under the water,if theres so much easy oil to extract??

Mineralogy -newscientist-

http://www.newscientist.com/data/images/archive/2605/26051202.jpg

When I say mostly gone I personal don't see Silver becoming extinct as such but so much more precious than it has been treated of late much like Gold silver once it's price is alot higher than today will be held in vaults as a store of wealth --mining costs will only go much much higher as the Oceans will be explored,mined(much like oil is today)maybe even one day other planets will be mined...if the human race lasts that long

Exactly... 99.9% of all species that have lived on Earth are now extinct. Things in our environment do in fact.. change...

Skol would prefer to just put this down to alarmist or conspiracy theory type thinking which is unfortunately highly ignorant

[Skol]

Exactly... 99.9% of all species that have lived on Earth are now extinct. Things in our environment do in fact.. change...

Skol would prefer to just put this down to alarmist or conspiracy theory type thinking which is unfortunately highly ignorant

Nice sanctimonious,holier than thou, comments but I'll take some notice when you don't use a car, fly in an aircraft,or rely on electricity

[asc4]

You wouldn't catch me in an aircraft that didn't have gold in it... microchips can be important at times :)

[elZorro]

Posted by Skol: How about ENV vs OGC for the week?
ASX is closed today I believe.

A good comparison Skol, ENV has about the same Mcap, its results a bit up and down, and nothing much happened with OGC today anyway. Maybe the TSX will kick it along...

OGC starts at NZ$4.30 AU$3.49 (Friday close)
ENV starts at AU$0.50

Let the race begin..

Reporting at the close of the week, gold hits an all time dollar high overnight.

OGC NZ hits $4.69, 9% up, OGC AU hits AU$3.77, 8% up, and ENV finished on 51c, 2% up.

Admittedly it was a lucky week for OGC. Cheers Skol.

[Skol]

Well done there EZ you win.
Since I keep reading that the amount of gold in the world is more or less constant, and gold produces no return, then for gold to keep going up in price means that gold is going up because gold is going up.
That probably makes it the world's biggest ponzi scheme.

[skid]

I guess if your going to use the industrial value argument for gold vs Money,you would then have to ask yourself what can you do with paper.Good for starting fires I guess[the hundreds work best] You cant create gold like you can money,but i suppose in terms of industrial uses commodities would outshine both

[Skol]

I guess if your going to use the industrial value argument for gold vs Money,you would then have to ask yourself what can you do with paper.Good for starting fires I guess[the hundreds work best] You cant create gold like you can money,but i suppose in terms of industrial uses commodities would outshine both

I've said dozens of times before you tell me how you're going to shave little bits off when the invoices arrive.

Can any goldbugs tell me?

[skid]

Could possibly be a situation where you use gold coin or coins to pay for your house renovation and whatever other form of payment you use[Barter-labor exchange-wheelbarrow full of money?]for the smaller things. Its all speculation but I think there are alot of progressive possibilities before the complete breakdown anarcy stage,that would still support a bit of gold as an insurance.

[peat]

here is some light relief from the arguments
holders of PM's will of course be smiling this weekend


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gSq8ZBdSxNU&feature=player_embedded

[peat]

I've said dozens of times before you tell me how you're going to shave little bits off when the invoices arrive.

Can any goldbugs tell me?
I'm more of silver bug but this weeks EWI publication mentions GOLDMONEY which is a metal storage institution that allows transfers of gold silver and currency between clients so it is in effect allowing payment by gold - they use the goldgram as the unit (worth about $40US)
For a fee of course - so its still not immensely practical for buying the groceries. But it is a medium of exchange using a system outside the current fiat monetary one where debts can be settled so it counts.

[Skol]

When a company is no longer solvent or of any use it's broken up and assets sold off and paid to shareholders.
What happens when the last dollar's in for gold?
Nice to look at, jewellers don't want it at current prices, the only punters that do are the buyers of ETF's-fact.

When sell time comes someone will buy it, but at what price?

You can't eat it, drink it, drive it, live in it, there's no return and it costs to own it.

[Skol]

Another gold scam.

Now, we have worries that Tungsten is being used inside of gold bars. The effect is the possibility that tons of gold bars are fake. They look like gold, feel like gold weigh as much as a gold bar would and only an assay can tell the difference. Popular science even has an article laying out how to build a fake gold bar using Tungsten in How to Make Convincing Fake-Gold Bars. There may even be some fake gold coins circulating.

There are two possible effects of the news: One, those who hold gold coins and bars may want to ditch their supply and let someone else determine its authenticity or Two, there could be a mad scramble to secure anything that’s real before the Ponzi scheme hits the fan. I suspect many gold investors will stand for delivery and the burden of proof will lie with the seller. This could be like musical chairs; only there are ten players and only one chair. Everything is ok until the music stops.

[Huang Chung]

Another gold scam.

Now, we have worries that Tungsten is being used inside of gold bars. The effect is the possibility that tons of gold bars are fake. They look like gold, feel like gold weigh as much as a gold bar would and only an assay can tell the difference. Popular science even has an article laying out how to build a fake gold bar using Tungsten in How to Make Convincing Fake-Gold Bars. There may even be some fake gold coins circulating.

There are two possible effects of the news: One, those who hold gold coins and bars may want to ditch their supply and let someone else determine its authenticity or Two, there could be a mad scramble to secure anything that’s real before the Ponzi scheme hits the fan. I suspect many gold investors will stand for delivery and the burden of proof will lie with the seller. This could be like musical chairs; only there are ten players and only one chair. Everything is ok until the music stops.

The gold conspiracy theorists have been lapping up the tungsten bar story up for ages Skol, and hoping like hell its true.

To my way of thinking, you don't need these conspiracy theories to make a strong case for investing in gold in the current environment.

[shasta]

The gold conspiracy theorists have been lapping up the tungsten bar story up for ages Skol, and hoping like hell its true.

To my way of thinking, you don't need these conspiracy theories to make a strong case for investing in gold in the current environment.

Well Tungsten has the highest temperature resistance of all the metals, what temperature does gold melt at?

Wouldnt have thought there was enough tungsten around to substitute it for gold

[Huang Chung]

Well Tungsten has the highest temperature resistance of all the metals, what temperature does gold melt at?

Wouldnt have thought there was enough tungsten around to substitute it for gold

Quite a bit of tungsten around Shasta....with a lot of it expended in military projectiles.

[Skol]

Her are a couple of paras. from an article on gold in USA Today.

"the fundamentals for a gold rally don't appear to be here. Core inflation, minus food and energy, has had its lowest 12-month rise in 44 years, notes Moody's Investor Service.
The nation's money supply has risen at a modest 1.7%.
The trade weighted value of the dollar has risen 4.6% this year according to the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank."

and


"Mostly the advocates of hard currencies are either selling gold or they're pushing a political agenda," says Tom Muldowney, managing director of Savant Capital. "They spend time scaring people."


Ain't that the truth.

[elZorro]

Her are a couple of paras. from an article on gold in USA Today.

"the fundamentals for a gold rally don't appear to be here. Core inflation, minus food and energy, has had its lowest 12-month rise in 44 years, notes Moody's Investor Service.
The nation's money supply has risen at a modest 1.7%.
The trade weighted value of the dollar has risen 4.6% this year according to the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank."

and


"Mostly the advocates of hard currencies are either selling gold or they're pushing a political agenda," says Tom Muldowney, managing director of Savant Capital. "They spend time scaring people."


Ain't that the truth.

Here's a cut/paste to get you going Skol, from a journalist who must have been reading JB's posts..;)
Or is it the other way around?


Minesite Weekly Roundup 14th – 21st June 2010

The shrill squawks of rage from Obama at the oil leak in the Bay of Mexico tell the world that the end of cheap oil in the States is in sight. It may take some time to sink into the American psyche, but the era of cheap oil for which the US has fomented war and aggravation around the world is over. BP and its drilling contractor were working at the edge of human capability about 1 mile below surface and accidents happen. It's a fact of life and even an all-powerful President of the United States can do nothing except squawk and allow Congress to run a kangaroo court.

The question then has to be asked - what does this do for the US dollar on which the prices of all basic commodities are based. Nobody knows the answer. All we have are multitudes of self serving theories from economists. But this is happening at a very strange time as all around the Western world paper currencies are under scrutiny. The euro is under particular scrutiny as it represents the currencies of a widely disparate set of countries ranging from Greece with its notoriously weak economy to the much stronger Germany.

Let's face it, a dollar possesses value only because enough people agree that it does. But if a large body of dollar-holders rebelled against this notion, the dollar's value would decline, if not disappear altogether. Paper currencies are known as 'fiat currencies' after the Latin phrase, 'let it be done'. In other words they are backed solely by Government decree and have no intrinsic value yet they underpin the entire network of global commerce.

When the world's financial system went into freefall in 2008 China was stuffed to the gills with US dollars from its trading surplus. Metals prices as denominated in US dollars fell and China took the opportunity to build stockpiles of metals and minerals at very low prices. The Chinese could see the ultimate value of base metals compared with currencies at a time when Western Governments were printing paper money under the weaselly term 'quantitative easing' to buy their way out of trouble.

The future of currencies is becoming a major worry to vast numbers of people as evidenced by the buying of gold in such quantities that there is not sufficient capacity for bank vaults to hold bullion in cities such as London, New York, Geneva, Singapore and Hong Kong. The scales have fallen from the eyes of investors and Obama would get more respect for facing facts rather than encouraging anti-British rhetoric.

Charles Wyatt

[Skol]

Charles Wyatt, founder and editor of www. minesite.com

Fancy that, one of the advocates and sellers of hard currencies.

LOL

[elZorro]

Charles Wyatt, founder and editor of www. minesite.com

Fancy that, one of the advocates and sellers of hard currencies.

LOL

Yet gold rests at US$1255 for the weekend Skol..now who's laughing?

[Skol]

Yet gold rests at US$1255 for the weekend Skol..now who's laughing?

Not sure why you're laughing, OGC is down 20c for the week.
I turned on TV in the US the other day to CNBC. First thing I saw was Joe Kerner musing about gold, went something like this.

"Yeah, you dig it out of the ground, make it look nice, then bury it again in a vault and pay someone to guard it. I can't figure that one out."

Neither can I.

There's also a letter to Mary Holm in today's Herald from someone who looks like he's selling gold and trying to convince a few suckers into parting with their cash. She quotes someone from Motley Fool who says "is gold the new tulip bulb?"

Probably.

[macduffy]

OGC may be down 20c on the week, Skol, but have you looked at a 12 month chart of its SP lately?

Something like a 300% increase, give or take a few percent!

Unfortunately I don't own any.

[elZorro]

OGC may be down 20c on the week, Skol, but have you looked at a 12 month chart of its SP lately?

Something like a 300% increase, give or take a few percent!

Unfortunately I don't own any.

Thanks for the show of support Macduffy, Skol lost a bet with me the week before last on OGC, he's still hurting..

I suggest you buy a bit of OGC on Monday at opening MD and Skol, as there will probably be a good press release next week. Could be a quick 10-20% gain in it. Just IMHO.

[Skol]

Thanks for the show of support Macduffy, Skol lost a bet with me the week before last on OGC, he's still hurting..

I suggest you buy a bit of OGC on Monday at opening MD and Skol, as there will probably be a good press release next week. Could be a quick 10-20% gain in it. Just IMHO.

Thanks but no thanks, I'm a contrarian looking for beaten down stocks and not looking to get my fingers burnt on anything gold.

[elZorro]

Thanks but no thanks, I'm a contrarian looking for beaten down stocks and not looking to get my fingers burnt on anything gold.

Skol, I had a look for latest gold info on www, found plenty of compelling evidence for continued faith in a high gold price.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE65O0GM20100625

Saw somewhere else on a goldbug page that the inflation-adjusted historical high for gold was over US$7,000 per ounce. But in recent times, it was more like US$2,176.

http://goldprice.org/inflation-adjusted-gold-price.html

And fair enough Skol, the price didn't stay up there for long at that stage.

I have to repeat, OGC is my preferred investment ATM, not gold itself. As long as the company continues to make the most of the environment it is in, normal business results will apply. In this case, extremely high profits with low risk.

[Skol]

The internet is full goldbug stuff which is a contrarian warning all on its own, lots of suckers don't understand the risk involved but will sooner or later get a stern lesson on it.
The goldbug sites do anything to crank up the price and entice the gullible but the actual inflation adjusted price is about US$2200.
They quote property and other nonsense to claim the inflation-adjusted price is much higher to justify their optimism.
When it got to $850 in 1980 it was grossly overpriced and subsequently crashed but Pamela and Mary Ann Aden (who goldbugs love to quote) said in 1980, that in 1985 or 1986 the price would be $4000.
The Adens, surprisingly still put out a newsletter.

The goldbugs on various sites quote any number of 'analysts' to keep them feeling good about the price, probably because they need a mental crutch. One moron yesterday said silver would soon be $600oz.

Goldbugs crack me up, it's good entertainment.

[Skol]

Credit Suisse

WE ARE REVISING OUR gold price forecasts for 2010 through to 2014. Our long-term gold price forecast remains unchanged at $850 per ounce. We are also moving to a revised valuation methodology. Previously we were using flat spot pricing; we were using our 2010 gold price forecast of $1,025 per ounce in 2010 and beyond, to generate our target prices.

Dated June 24 2010

[Jay]

The internet is full goldbug stuff which is a contrarian warning all on its own,.

Have been hearing an advert for a CFD type product - can't quite remember exactly) but only mentioning gold and for a small outlay of (I think) $1000 and the gold price moves $3 up you can make $30,000 - Sounds easy, only $3 up - easy peasy money :p


Fails to mention what happens if the gold price goes down!

[shasta]

Have been hearing an advert for a CFD type product - can't quite remember exactly) but only mentioning gold and for a small outlay of (I think) $1000 and the gold price moves $3 up you can make $30,000 - Sounds easy, only $3 up - easy peasy money :p


Fails to mention what happens if the gold price goes down!

Thats using 100:1 leverage or for $1000 opening a $1m position to make $30k from a $3 movement.

You get better odds in the casino!

[JBmurc]

The internet is full goldbug stuff which is a contrarian warning all on its own, lots of suckers don't understand the risk involved but will sooner or later get a stern lesson on it.

-That's nothing compared to the USD euro bullish fiat currency bull**** we see on the box 24/7 a couple gold bull websites oh no LOL quick sell that precious metal the world gone mad with gold fever.....

[Skol]

You're going to be a billionaire JB.......

I've been told on HC that silver will soon be $600oz.

While I realise you're quite busy building your bunker down there JB I can assure you the rest of the world is open for business.

I'm seriously cosidering buying some Euros, looks OK technically.

[JBmurc]

You're going to be a billionaire JB.......

I've been told on HC that silver will soon be $600oz.

While I realise you're quite busy building your bunker down there JB I can assure you the rest of the world is open for business.

I'm seriously cosidering buying some Euros, looks OK technically.

not a bunker a new house an yes within the next decade I could see Silver reaching some very high prices compared to todays very cheap prices remember Silver is a two way bet if the worlds electrical,healthcare,solar etc demand increases or if the world fiat currency collapse it will be bullish for silver as a store of value one thing it will never do is be worthless

[JBmurc]

If you added up all know Financial assets GOLD bullion still only makes up a tiny 1/10 of 1% Silver most likely 1/100+
--But you watch out Skol those evil Gold Silver bullion buyers are set to make this the biggest PGM bull market of modern times load up on euro's before it flys LOL

-I'd say your the kind of guy skol that would keep driving even when the oil lights on LOL because you know better back in the 80's bah bah

[elZorro]

I like the look of that chart JB, makes a lot of sense. As you say, there might be a bit of propaganda on the net about gold and PGMs, but there is a lot more noise on currencies and other (dubious) investments too. Trust your housebuilding is going OK.

[Skol]

Hey JB, excellent news.

Obama says plans are well under way to reduce the deficit by 50% by 2013. On the midday news.

There, problem solved, the debt crisis is over so the USD will retain it's reserve currency status.

PS. I forgot, it's different this time, right?
LOL

[airedale]

Hey JB, excellent news.

Obama says plans are well under way to reduce the deficit by 50% by 2013. On the midday news.

There, problem solved, the debt crisis is over so the USD will retain it's reserve currency status.

Hi Skol, sounds like Obama and his advisers are going to solve the problem by speeding up the printing press. Invest in a company making paper printing machinery.;)

[COLIN]

All I know is that I am very happy with the way my investments in OGC, NCM and CXC are trending, when there has been little else to give much cheer in current markets.

"I'm just a simple country boy."

[stevo1]

Gee too easy just announce on the midday news and its all done by 2013.
Why didnt they do it before ?
Could have saved us from buying that nasty golden metal that you cant eat or anything.
How are they going to do this?

[Skol]

Hi Skol, sounds like Obama and his advisers are going to solve the problem by speeding up the printing press. Invest in a company making paper printing machinery.;)

Well so far it's working, right?
Where's the dreaded meltdown and hyperinflation? If anything there's deflation, and governments worldwide have spent trillions to avoid a depression.

Seems OK to me unless you've got a better idea.

[Huang Chung]

US printing presses set to warp speed, and Europe in a debt mess.

Sounds to me like gold has a very bright future (pun intended).

[elZorro]

US printing presses set to warp speed, and Europe in a debt mess.

Sounds to me like gold has a very bright future (pun intended).

Yes HC, here's more propaganda for Skol to discount..

Monday, June 28, 2010


China to purchase gold concentrates from Coeur d'Alene Mines
by Lawrence Williams (Mineweb)


We are now used to China sourcing huge volumes of metals from external sources to drive its industrial machine forwards, but the latest announcement from Coeur d'Alene Mines (ASX: CXC) on its deal to have its gold concentrates purchased and processed by China's largest gold producer suggests that precious metals are on China's vast shopping list too.

China is already the world's largest gold miner, and many analysts now assume - following the country's announcement last year that it had been building up its gold reserves for six years unknown to the West - that it is still expanding its gold holdings in a way that does not necessarily show the gold going into official reserves. And now it appears to be looking elsewhere to purchase supplies of the yellow metal without overtly impacting the market.

What is significant, perhaps, is that this suggests that China's commitment to gold is both ongoing - and likely to increase. The country, through its financial institutions and state television advertising, has been persuading its ever growing middle classes to purchase gold (and silver) as a good investment. There seems little doubt that the state is doing the same thing itself as a means of diversifying its huge reserves.

Coming back to the Coeur deal, gold concentrates produced at Kensington will be processed by China's largest gold producer China National Gold through an agreement that is the first of its kind between a state-owned corporation of the People's Republic of China and a U.S. precious metals mine.........China Gold will be paying upfront, which means that in terms of timing, Coeur will get paid seven days after shipping vs. the typical two-three months that most concentrate producers must wait, while the metal is being processed at the smelter/refinery.

This is obviously a very attractive deal for Coeur, speeding up its cashflow, although it covers a relatively small amount of gold for the Chinese - but the very fact that this has been put into place suggests that other similar deals are likely to be negotiated with other new producers going forwards. It also means that China's appetite for gold just cannot be satisfied by its still growing domestic gold mine output - as we noted above already the world's largest.

If indeed it is China's plan to increase its gold holdings, but while maintaining an orderly market in the yellow metal, it is a smart move. The main reason, almost certainly, that China did not buy the IMF gold on offer - or even a large hunk of it - would be that to do so would have sent a very overt signal to the market and that the gold price would have skyrocketed as a result. Such a movement in the price might have been seen on global markets as a vote of no confidence in the dollar - and with China's huge dollar-related foreign exchange holdings this would not suit its long term economic policy either.

To buy newly-mined gold production at source is thus a clever ploy. It is not interfering with the gold market directly by being seen to buy, but picking up gold which is actually never reaching the market. It can then move the gold into some interim holding capacity which does not have it showing up in its official reserves until, and unless, it wishes to make this statement to the markets. The fact that, as a result, less gold is actually reaching the market has a substantially smaller impact on it than the overt purchasing of bullion itself.

The move has to be seen as long term bullish for the gold price and is yet another way of limiting downside risk for gold investors. GATA has for a long time been railing against what it sees as gold price suppression by the gold banks and governments, but probably none of this has the potential impact for control of the gold market which can be, and probably is being, exerted by the Chinese, although they are doing their best to keep a low profile - but because this is broadly positive for gold it may not be in that organisation's interests to comment yet it would seem to be an equally manipulative policy, but in support of the goldprice rather than in suppressing it..

[Skol]

Barrons magazine reported the other day the Chinese Government only purchases gold mined locally.

It's the usual 'gold is being suppressed' nonsense, a website with a vested interest, no need to comment any more.

The Chinese were hoarding copper a couple of years back, enlighten yourself and have a look at the Cu historical price chart.

[Skol]

Thanks for the show of support Macduffy, Skol lost a bet with me the week before last on OGC, he's still hurting..

I suggest you buy a bit of OGC on Monday at opening MD and Skol, as there will probably be a good press release next week. Could be a quick 10-20% gain in it. Just IMHO.

Was the good press release the one today EZ?
Lucky I didn't take your advice, down 8c.

10-20%. yeah right. LOL

[elZorro]

Was the good press release the one today EZ?
Lucky I didn't take your advice, down 8c.

10-20%. yeah right. LOL

I was hoping you wouldn't notice that Skol.. I've been very very bad today. Bought more OGC on a downtrend :eek2: I need to be punished..

Pay no attention to the Aussies, they can't stand the success of OGC. All will be revealed later on in the week, I hope.

How's ENV going then? Still flatlining??

[Skol]

I was hoping you wouldn't notice that Skol.. I've been very very bad today. Bought more OGC on a downtrend :eek2: I need to be punished..

Pay no attention to the Aussies, they can't stand the success of OGC. All will be revealed later on in the week, I hope.

How's ENV going then? Still flatlining??

I don't own ENV just thought it might be a good punt at the time which it wasn't.

My chart stock screen picked that out amongst a few others, might need some fine tuning.

[elZorro]

AA: thanks for that chart, cheers me up a bit. I don't feel I can go too far wrong with OGC. It did go the wrong way today, not sure why. Too many TA people out there I suspect..


Skol posted: My chart stock screen picked that out (ENV) amongst a few others, might need some fine tuning.

Cripes, that's like a red rag to a bull for a FA person (or a pretender like me). It's like a free energy device posted on the net, where the magic 'frequency' is not included in the circuit design because you have to find the 'natural resonance', so you can only "adjust on test". In other words, cobblers... Just having you on Skol, but have you got another 'hot pick' for the rest of the week??

[Skol]

Just having you on Skol, but have you got another 'hot pick' for the rest of the week??

I ran my stock screener a few minutes ago and the only share that showed up was MCP, McPhersons, whoever they are, never heard of them, but will check over a few days.
Last price $2.50, but not that liquid.
Cheers.

[elZorro]

I ran my stock screener a few minutes ago and the only share that showed up was MCP, McPhersons, whoever they are, never heard of them, but will check over a few days.
Last price $2.50, but not that liquid.
Cheers.

Skol, are you sure this is not like the Sealegs promotion we had on the NZX forum a few weeks back?

Even TA cannot rescue this one surely.. But the software cannot be wrong (Metastock is it? :) )
MCP - A printer of books in Aussie, with some other std brand consumer products, so not much of an edge from an FA perspective either.

Since your pick was badly thrashed last time :D shall we start from the beginning of this week and see? I'm on a hiding to nothing so far.

Cheers.

[Skol]

Im Sorry Skol take no offence but after trying for some time I can't find anything from a TA perspective why I would buy this stock, what sort of filters are you using for this screen, and what sort of setup are you targeting?
My normal screener hasn't thrown up anything at all, MCP was just MACD 1 day, bad market.
My usual screener involves MACD and slow stochastic.
Anyway I don't profess to be a TA expert, far from it.

[Skol]

Skol, are you sure this is not like the Sealegs promotion we had on the NZX forum a few weeks back?

Even TA cannot rescue this one surely.. But the software cannot be wrong (Metastock is it? :) )
MCP - A printer of books in Aussie, with some other std brand consumer products, so not much of an edge from an FA perspective either.

Since your pick was badly thrashed last time :D shall we start from the beginning of this week and see? I'm on a hiding to nothing so far.

Cheers.

I'll get back to you this afternoon, have to study this carefully.
Cheers

[Skol]

EZ,
One I bought a few of at 30c.

BOL vs OGC end of next week.

[Skol]

www.smh.com.au/business/gold-price-a-bubble-waiting-to-pop-20100628-zca1.html

An article by Michael Pascoe attracting attention on HC.

As one who has dabbled with the gold threads on HC in my contrarian capacity I was astounded by some of the vitriol directed at me.
Criticism of gold was not allowed and I was told I was a 'disgrace' and 'get back in your hole little boy'.
The real vituperation arrived when I dared to suggest that gold is a ponzi scheme, because of the more or less constant amount of gold, it requires more investors to push the price up.
As far as many of the bugs are concerned they have locked horns in mortal combat with the 'suppressors', 'central banks' and the likes of Glenn Stevens, Bernanke, JP Morgan and any other number of 'manipulators'.
Very strange paranoid behaviour.
In the meantime of course we are all waiting patiently for the dreaded hyperinflation and implosion of the 'fiat' currencies which never seems to happen.

[Huang Chung]

Monday's Fast Money...Dennis Gartman on gold (he's bullish again).

Gold comes up after a minute or two into the segment...be patient.

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r2940152517&w=2390512

[elZorro]

EZ,
One I bought a few of at 30c.

BOL vs OGC end of next week.

Hi Skol, that looks more interesting, so from the start of this week (last Friday close) to next Friday's close? I can see you're starting to get interested in gold and mining.. BOL have just won a big contract to supply cranes to BHP for maintenance work etc.

The mining sector is still getting into it.

[Skol]

Hi Skol, that looks more interesting, so from the start of this week (last Friday close) to next Friday's close? I can see you're starting to get interested in gold and mining.. BOL have just won a big contract to supply cranes to BHP for maintenance work etc.

The mining sector is still getting into it.

OK.
Have no gripe against the mining sector, have a lot of cash tied up in the BT Natural Resources Fund, have done for years, it probably owns a bit of gold too.

Just don't fancy my chance with gold at the moment, anything else, even oil is fine.

[JBmurc]

OK.
Have no gripe against the mining sector, have a lot of cash tied up in the BT Natural Resources Fund, have done for years, it probably owns a bit of gold too.

Just don't fancy my chance with gold at the moment, anything else, even oil is fine.

good to see you coming round wasn't long ago you were very anti oil this time next year your be warming to the Precious

[JBmurc]

Hey JB, excellent news.
Obama says plans are well under way to reduce the deficit by 50% by 2013. On the midday news.
There, problem solved, the debt crisis is over so the USD will retain it's reserve currency status.
PS. I forgot, it's different this time, right?
LOL

Its different this time -----well no study world Empires rise an fall

LOL alright so Obama plans to do this how ?? If Obama can even stop the Deficit growing I'd be amazed WARS aren't cheap ,the US has what some 600+ milatary bases worldwide ,only reason why the USD hasn't collasped is the fact 99% of all the worlds central banks must have some USD for trade--The USD is the world currency some two thirds of the USD are held outside the USA an if you decide you want to use your own countrys moneys to say sell your countries OIL you will be taken from office or in IRAQ's case invaded an controlled

The USA is the next ROMAN EMPIRE study what happen to the that empire in the end

current USA Trade deficit $$520,026,842,999 it gows round $2000 per second but if Obama says it will turn ....................

[Skol]

You're right, wars aren't cheap, but can also stimulate the economy.
Lots of people needed to make ammo and guns, aircraft, civilian duties in Afghanistan and Iraq etc.
The USA fought and financed WW2 for 4 years, and didn't go bust. The cost must have been colossal, the logistics of the second world war are mind boggling but the USD survived.

How about this. In addition to all the ships, guns, tanks, ammo, bombs, vehicles, aircraft, food etc that was produced, the USA built and equipped an aircraft carrier every 2 weeks.
At the end of the war they had 99.

[JBmurc]

You're right, wars aren't cheap, but can also stimulate the economy.
Lots of people needed to make ammo and guns, aircraft, civilian duties in Afghanistan and Iraq etc.
The USA fought and financed WW2 for 4 years, and didn't go bust. The cost must have been colossal, the logistics of the second world war are mind boggling but the USD survived.

How about this. In addition to all the ships, guns, tanks, ammo, bombs, vehicles, aircraft, food etc that was produced, the USA built and equipped an aircraft carrier every 2 weeks.
At the end of the war they had 99.

Yes in part the US makes money from exporting their weapons of mass destruction to others an general supplies for wars but if you take the costs in fuel,wages,maintenance of the USA WAR MACHINE I really think the US defence force is more of a bully boy for the government backed by the world elites than a real sound economic earner to help the US pull out of the debt hole their digging....I'm pretty sure the US import alot of their food now aswell

[Skol]

Yes in part the US makes money from exporting their weapons of mass destruction to others an general supplies for wars but if you take the costs in fuel,wages,maintenance of the USA WAR MACHINE I really think the US defence force is more of a bully boy for the government backed by the world elites than a real sound economic earner to help the US pull out of the debt hole their digging....I'm pretty sure the US import alot of their food now aswell
USA WAR MACHINE.
A bit over the top there JB.
Guess what language you'd be speaking now if it wasn't for the US Navy? Kiwis are incredibly short sighted and ungrateful.
The sheer fact that WW2 didn't break the US economy shows its resilience and The Economist which I read occasionally doesn't indicate any inflation or monetary collapse. It's a myth.
After the war the USA rebuilt Japan and Germany, financed the Berlin airlift, and fought the Korean War for 3 years. Then came the Cold War buildup, Vietnam, Gulf 1 & 2, the war on terror, Afghanistan and they're still not broke.
The USA will not go broke! You've got my word for it.
It's a goldbug fairytale.

PS. Here's some trivia.

You think the D-Day landings were big?

Not as big as the attack on Iwo Jima which required 768 ships

Any country that put something like that together will not go under.

All the above and much more was done with half the population the USA has now.

[JBmurc]

How about the IRAQ-IRAN war or the USSR-Afghanistan the US war machine was well involved pretty much most of the major wars of the modern man the USA has had some involvement be it tech&weapon support for the Taliban against the USSR or extra man-power in the likes of the Korean war the USA is the current world Empire an as we know every Empire has it's day


here's a plane for ya skol
http://www.terrafugia.com/

[Skol]

JB,
Sounds like you went to the same school as Keith Locke.

Nice plane, see how it goes. Always a good idea to let someone else fly them first though.

Hey EZ,
OGC down, director selling shares.

[elZorro]

JB,
Sounds like you went to the same school as Keith Locke.

Nice plane, see how it goes. Always a good idea to let someone else fly them first though.

Hey EZ,
OGC down, director selling shares.

As a contrarian Skol, you must be buying OGC now.:t_up:. I would think the director wanted some pocket money, or is juggling something for the financial year. It was only 10% or less of his holdings.

Think there must be a general flight to cash, and OGC has been a very profitable share, no worries, it will bounce back higher.

How's BOL going anyway? Still to get above last Friday's close? I think we'll both need the two weeks for this bet.

[Skol]

How's BOL going anyway? Still to get above last Friday's close? I think we'll both need the two weeks for this bet.
No I won't be buying OGC, gold isn't my scene, especially right now. HUI and XGD not looking good either.

I might've cheated there a bit EZ there's takeover activity going on. LOL

[Huang Chung]

You're right, wars aren't cheap, but can also stimulate the economy.
Lots of people needed to make ammo and guns, aircraft, civilian duties in Afghanistan and Iraq etc.
The USA fought and financed WW2 for 4 years, and didn't go bust. The cost must have been colossal, the logistics of the second world war are mind boggling but the USD survived.

How about this. In addition to all the ships, guns, tanks, ammo, bombs, vehicles, aircraft, food etc that was produced, the USA built and equipped an aircraft carrier every 2 weeks.
At the end of the war they had 99.

Not really the case any more Skol. Technological advancement and the need to avoid 'collateral damage' means fewer, 'smarter' weapons. Today, one or two laser guided bomb dropped from one plane can drop a bridge...in WW2 or even the early stages of Vietnam, it would probably take numerous aircraft dropping heaps of 'dumb' bombs to achieve a similar result. The yanks might have finished the war with 99 carriers....today they have 11 in Commission. The last one they commissioned (CVN77) took nearly 6 years (the length of WW2) from keel laying to commissioning.

PS...I agree with you that people forget that the US saved our bacon 65 years ago.

[Skol]

PS...I agree with you that people forget that the US saved our bacon 65 years ago.

Thanks HC, good to know that some appreciate what the USA did for us downunder although you wouldn't think so if you listen to some of the lefties.

Yep, carriers are much bigger and incredibly more complex but it's still the 'big stick' in a conventional war.

Just a pity kiwis ignore their defence and bludge on everyone else.

The RNZAF makes me cringe. I'm nearing retirement and the aircraft they own were purchased when I was in high school.

[JBmurc]

Yeah is a Great Watch AA if only more would wake-up

[elZorro]

No I won't be buying OGC, gold isn't my scene, especially right now. HUI and XGD not looking good either.

I might've cheated there a bit EZ there's takeover activity going on. LOL

Oh yeah, I see that now..fair enough Skol. :cool:

http://www.tradingmarkets.com/news/stock-alert/boolf_australian-firm-boom-logistics-says-archer-cap-s-bid-not-enough-1010773.html

Of course it might backfire if the bid goes away..;)

My hopes for OGC are resting on a press release too.. so this is a fair contest :)

[JBmurc]

Im a fan of RON PAUL, you can tell a great man who is so passionate about something that they get think bags under their eyes from thinking too much about stuff at night.

well for one Ron paul make sense unlike many of the others that talk absolute rubbish about the US economy getting stronger etc yet forget to address the increasing debt levels

[Skol]

I watched half of it and most it's speculation, what might happen.
The Chinese currency is pegged to to the USD, what's that tell you, that the Chinese have confidence in the USD, and have billions in US Treasuries.
The Chinese are not 'convinced' to invest, they invest because they want to invest in US Treasuries. The language was like going to some kind of company brainwashing session.
The clip says the reason oil got to $147 was the deficit-sorry-it was speculation.
Peter Schiff, a goldbug was on this clip, and he's got a checkered past when it comes to investment.
I spotted a 'Ludwig' on the rostrum, let me guess, something to do with Ludwig von Mises.
The suggestion that if the Chinese population don't have jobs they'll starve is nonsense, if they don't have jobs they'll revolt.

MOst of the half I saw was 'what if'.

Not in the real world I'm afraid.

[JBmurc]

The People's Bank of China announcement that the yuan will be de-pegged from the US dollar has supported risk assets at the start of the week. In our weekly Sunday evening (North America) Live Pro Traders Club, I had stated that there was effectively no change in what the market already expected out of China, so the "euphoria" would be short lived once the market came to terms with the fact that there would be uncertainty over the timing of the Yuan movement. I had also suggested that although DJIA futures were 100+ higher during Asia and Europe sessions, US equities would likely open higher followed by a sell-off, which is exactly what happened. It's important to note investor sentiment has been bolstered by the reduction of tensions between America and China over currency policy, and by the accompanying bullish statement from China's authorities that the 'upturn of the Chinese economy has become more solid with the enhanced economic stability'.

As a result, the currencies of those economies with the largest share of exports to China - Australia, Japan, Taiwan, Korea, Brazil and Indonesia -had initially benefited. I suspect that we may have even achieved a near term top in risk currencies and to look for some downside from here. Moreover, as the People's Bank of China now will have to buy fewer dollars, somewhat slower reserve accumulation will lead to slower accumulation of US Treasuries.

[Skol]

Down $47 to $1199.
Who's fault is this JB?
Has to be JP Morgan, right, or is it the Obama administration promising to clean up the books by 2013?

Silver's tanked 5%.

Wonder what OGC will be today?

It'll be interesting to check out the fury on HC when the goldbugs get out of bed.

[peat]

for someone who wont invest in Gold you have too much to say about it Skol
and while the markets are always a two way street personally I dont think its cool to constantly needle people about their choices or their misfortunes.
maybe you should move your bed to the other side of the room or get your liver tested

[Skol]

for someone who wont invest in Gold you have too much to say about it Skol
and while the markets are always a two way street personally I dont think its cool to constantly needle people about their choices or their misfortunes.
maybe you should move your bed to the other side of the room or get your liver tested

Well it's not so much the investment, it's the disinformation and outright nonsense that goes with it. Want an example, listen to the video clip above.
Goldbugs, and those who constantly push gold have a vested interest in getting more 'investors' if I can call them that to join the party, so I take it on myself to point out that a lot of this info isn't kosher and they should look into precious metals further before they dabble.
There's something about goldbugs, they don't tolerate anyone who disagrees. That's a fact, and I've read the same sentiment in the newspapers in the USA.
If I've convinced just one person to DYOR then I'll have achieved my goal.
As far as you're concerned if you don't like it, too bad.

I got exactly the same treatment with the price of oil. I was told to keep my nose out of it because I didn't own it. That was just before the POO tanked from $147 to $30.

I get needled all the time, so what, you're obviously thin skinned.

PS.
I have my liver tested every 12 months.

[trackers]

As a contrarian Skol, you must be buying OGC now.:t_up:. I would think the director wanted some pocket money, or is juggling something for the financial year. It was only 10% or less of his holdings.

Think there must be a general flight to cash, and OGC has been a very profitable share, no worries, it will bounce back higher.

How's BOL going anyway? Still to get above last Friday's close? I think we'll both need the two weeks for this bet.

Most TA indicators are showing bad signs for OGC, but there's an interesting bullish divergence happening between Accumulation/Distribution (rising) vs share price (falling) -> http://www.incrediblecharts.com/indicators/accumulation_distribution.php

[JBmurc]

yes Skol gold below 1200 will it close the week below it will be key T/A bearish point--- 60 day low 1165 ----So SKOL whats the price you believe GOLD will fall to should be a laugh your be brimming with confidence --- IMHO no Bull market goes in a straight line Gold has had some major falls over the last 10yrs -from early 07 to late 08 GOLD lost $300 from 1000ish down to 700ish the higher we go the bigger the movements worst case scenario for the GOLD price IMHO over the next 12m would be a fall to the 1040 range but I'm confindent we'll see some major dollar weakness before the years out to surge GOLD toward new high round 1300 time will tell

[elZorro]

Most TA indicators are showing bad signs for OGC, but there's an interesting bullish divergence happening between Accumulation/Distribution (rising) vs share price (falling) -> http://www.incrediblecharts.com/indicators/accumulation_distribution.php

Many thanks Trackers, I should start using some of that software. I have noted that OGC doesn't stay below the MA30 (red curve on the Direct Broking website) for long. At least not for the last year or so. Your findings mirror my own behaviour: I am very confident with OGC's progress and their fundamentals, so I will buy on dips. No doubt there are others with a bit more to spend than me.

[Skol]

yes Skol gold below 1200 will it close the week below it will be key T/A bearish point--- 60 day low 1165 ----So SKOL whats the price you believe GOLD will fall to should be a laugh your be brimming with confidence --- IMHO no Bull market goes in a straight line Gold has had some major falls over the last 10yrs -from early 07 to late 08 GOLD lost $300 from 1000ish down to 700ish the higher we go the bigger the movements worst case scenario for the GOLD price IMHO over the next 12m would be a fall to the 1040 range but I'm confindent we'll see some major dollar weakness before the years out to surge GOLD toward new high round 1300 time will tell
Here's what incredible charts says.
"Reversal below $1220 is less likely, but would warn of another test of $1170.
That was before last night.

[Phaedrus]

Most TA indicators are showing bad signs for OGC, but there's an interesting bullish divergence happening between Accumulation/Distribution (rising) vs share price (falling) OGC is actually showing BEARISH divergences, Trackers. It is making higher highs while the A/D indicator is making lower highs. Overall, the A/D indicator is falling. OGC is being distributed.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/OGC72.gif

[trackers]

uRGH, ok thanks Phaedrus... I actually mean short term (ultra short-term) but I guess looking from a longer term perspective is a better idea...

Top is accum/distr, bottom is OGC sp

http://iforce.co.nz/i/kkzewqy4.bmp

Edit: Ok even given this, my accum/distr is quite different to yours!

[stevo1]

Here's what incredible charts says.
"Reversal below $1220 is less likely, but would warn of another test of $1170.
That was before last night.

Yep Skol you are right again the end of the world is nigh

[Skol]

Yep Skol you are right again the end of the world is nigh

That's not what I said, that's what Incredible Charts said.

[Phaedrus]

My accum/distr is quite different to yours!So it is! That chart was cut straight from IncredibleCharts and is different to my MetaStock one too! Maybe IC have fiddled with the formula for A/D. I will post another chart - my own this time!