Gold

[Skol]

Who,d ya think ... Are main gold hating man skol

It's a pump n dump buddy, the Case/Schiller property prices in 20 US cities are up 13.4% to December 2013. The world isn't ending.

Housing starts in the USA are up, they're a leading economic indicator. In March and November last year last year housing starts in America rose back over 1m at an annual rate from a low of 478,000 in early 2009.

I've heard bitcoins are going cheap, bound to be a great deal.lol

Just sold some AWE, sold ABC, bought QBE at $10.57 and you reckon we should buy something that does nothing.

Can't wait to pick up my next $100, massive New World being built 5k away.

[Skol]

Daytr says, it might go up or it might go down. Just to cover his arse in case it goes wrong.

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/elliott_wave/gold/2014/02/25/eliottWaves_gold.html

[Skol]

Here's something from CNBC. Double digit declines for gold and silver this year?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101446337

[Skol]

This is what happens when you bury your gold and then die.

http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Gold-Country-couple-discover-10-million-in-5266314.php

[Daytr]

The rally in gold took a breather overnight pulling back the best part 0.8%. The move was mainly due to the USD rebounding from its recent lows against major currencies & reasonably strong housing sales data out of the US. Equity markets in the US were pretty much flat, with the S&P continuing to hover just below record highs of 1850. Many reports I have read from overnight, point to gold technically turning bearish. I would be interested in other's views on this as one night to me does not make a turning point. Importantly gold has closed above $1330, albeit only just & the recent up trend channel support appears to be around $1325 & below that we move down toward the 200DMA of around $1310. Recently we have seen Asian session selling & US session buying, with gold to open in Asia lower today, it will be interesting to see the market reaction on the Asian open. As mentioned in previous posts nothing goes up in a straight line & I suspect in a few days gold will be looking to crack $1350. UBS came out last night discounting gold's rally & that we will see a double digit decline in 2014, with investor sentiment likely to remain negative & ETF selling pressure to build again & equity markets to keep running higher. In my opinion, its the latter part of their view where their argument comes unstuck. Happy trading. Daytr

[Bobcat.]

If you look at its chart for this month, Gold has had just two dips - one to around 1315USD and the other (last night to around 1325USD. I'm of the view that there is a 3rd rise yet which will lift it above yesterdays high of 1346USD (or at least test it again) before dropping away for a more significant correction.

http://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/monthly_graphs.plx

DYOR, but IMO tomorrow morning is a better time to sell than today. Trading to it.


BC

[Daytr]

Tend to agree BC, you think gold has to have a reasonable pullback at some stage. However what I will say is that each dip in 2014 has been very shallow & typically the very next day the rally resumes. I think the real question right now is. Do we retest the $1420 highs?


If you look at its chart for this month, Gold has had just two dips - one to around 1315USD and the other (last night to around 1325USD. I'm of the view that there is a 3rd rise yet which will lift it above yesterdays high of 1346USD (or at least test it again) before dropping away for a more significant correction.

http://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/monthly_graphs.plx

DYOR, but IMO tomorrow morning is a better time to sell than today. Trading to it.


BC

[airedale]

My guess is that the POG will pull back to under US$1300 in the short term before tackling $1400 in the longer term. "short" and "long" are notoriously elastic terms.

[airedale]

Following my amateur guesstimate, Colin Twiggs estimates POG at US$ 1400 but reckons it may be some way away.

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tradingdiary/2014-02-27-gold-markets-forex.php

[Daytr]

Gold made modest gains overnight although importantly it closed above $1330 again. US equities also finished higher with the S&P finally closing above the previous record highs settling at 1854. The positive tone was set by Yellen, who backed up the market consensus on the recent weak economic data, as being down to the weather. There is no doubt in my mind the US economy is showing more consistent signs of recovery, however this does not justify record levels in equity markets, particularly with the volatility being seen in the Emerging Markets. If the US was an economic island then perhaps this wouldn't be such an issue, although I would still say equities were over valued. However it's not & what connects the US more than anything else to the rest of the world is its banks & even more exposed are the European banks. If there is another banking crisis similar to what we saw in 2008 & lending again dries up, what then for the US or global economy? Where does the money come from for bail outs if required? What was interesting about Yellen's testimony was that she said it would take a SIGNIFICANT change in circumstances for the tapering program to be altered. Its my opinion Yellen knows the danger of the continued policy & the US & global economy needs to stand on its own two feet. This is going to cause some financial pain across the globe, however will they hold their nerve if things really start to unravel? Now the S&P has achieved its record that it took weeks to conquer & is all of 0.3% up for 2014, I predict that it will now falter. Its a big call & quite frankly it could be even considered fool hardy. However if you are the smart large investor, are you really going to pour money into equities right now & at these levels? The market can run harder & longer than seems logical at times & who knows this could happen here, however in my opinion its just a matter of time before we see equities pushed lower & sharply & gold will be a beneficiary.

[Skol]

Daytr's talking through a hole in his head. Equities have a way to go yet DJIA up 117 and S&P up 13. Nice.

Raining in the West and melting in the East, the US economy is ready for blast-off.

[Bobcat.]

The price of Gold bounced up as the US equity indices fell away this morning off record highs earlier in the session. Holding up nicely off solid support at 1320usd.
I think Daytr may be right - it won't be long before Equity markets fall - I'd be very surprised if that doesn't happen this month. The global economies are not in the best shape ever, and yet indices are the highest ever - go figure.

It's fairly obvious that they are being artificially propped up by central banksters.

I'm 50% cashed up with 80% of my stocks in Precious Metal diggers.

BEWARE THE IDES OF MARCH.

[Skol]

The price of Gold bounced up as the US equity indices fell away this morning off record highs earlier in the session. Holding up nicely off solid support at 1320usd.
I think Daytr may be right - it won't be long before Equity markets fall - I'd be very surprised if that doesn't happen this month. The global economies are not in the best shape ever, and yet indices are the highest ever - go figure.

That's because those with vision aren't worrying about tomorrow morning but looking months and years down the track whereas the poor, blinkered goldbug chicken-littles can't get over the GFC and wait patiently for the great Armageddon.

The market's not too hot for Warren Buffett, he plans on making more acquisitions.

[corran]

the situation in Ukraine looks to be escalating with Russia and America squaring off. Hopefully things settle down a bit tomorrow but it doesn't look like it's going to.

The market open will be interesting on Monday, both for gold and stocks.

[skid]

Daytr's talking through a hole in his head. Equities have a way to go yet DJIA up 117 and S&P up 13. Nice.

Raining in the West and melting in the East, the US economy is ready for blast-off.

The only real optimistic news coming out of the US is the ever increasing stock market--What does that tell you??

[Skol]

The only real optimistic news coming out of the US is the ever increasing stock market--What does that tell you??

You obviously don't read the news. Housing starts, housing sales, employment up, car sales up 7.5% on 2012. Retail sales are stalled due to the weather.

More Americans confident enough to take on debt, leading economic indicators up in January.

Boeing and Airbus have a backlog of 10,700 jets to build, yep, the world's falling apart. lol

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-02-20/leading-economic-indicators-index-in-u-dot-s-dot-rose-0-dot-3-percent-in-january

Goldbugs are hunkered down reading the hard money newsletters while their prophets of doom, Peter Schiff eats humble pie and Eric Sprott gets the pineapple treatment.

http://www.finalternatives.com/node/25583

[JBmurc]

Well current Ukraine/Russia issue could well add some major upwards pressure on Energy/Gold as Russia is a HUGE Energy exporter so any financial sanctions by the West will also hurt the west

[Skol]

Well current Ukraine/Russia issue could well add some major upwards pressure on Energy/Gold as Russia is a HUGE Energy exporter so any financial sanctions by the West will also hurt the west

Goldbugs are always looking for the next crisis. A storm in a teacup, Putin's got plenty of problems without another one on his hands.

In general the world is an extraordinarily peaceful place with just a few brushfires. We need to thank the USA for ridding us of Saddam Hussein who was the biggest threat to civilisation, but also Osama Bin Laden and thousands of other terrorist trash.

That's why the stockmarkets will continue onwards and upwards, the Ukraianian problem is like lots of other former Soviet possessions where ultra-terrorist Joseph Stalin engineered large Russian immigration to keep the local populace under control.

For about a year George Soros has been short the S&P500, he doubled up not so long ago, he must have steel balls, even if they are 83 years old. The S&P500 is up about 23% in the last year.

[JBmurc]

Goldbugs are always looking for the next crisis. A storm in a teacup, Putin's got plenty of problems without another one on his hands.

In general the world is an extraordinarily peaceful place with just a few brushfires. We need to thank the USA for ridding us of Saddam Hussein who was the biggest threat to civilisation, but also Osama Bin Laden and thousands of other terrorist trash.

That's why the stockmarkets will continue onwards and upwards, the Ukraianian problem is like lots of other former Soviet possessions where ultra-terrorist Joseph Stalin engineered large Russian immigration to keep the local populace under control.

For about a year George Soros has been short the S&P500, he doubled up not so long ago, he must have steel balls, even if they are 83 years old. The S&P500 is up about 23% in the last year.

You know you have a very rose tinted view of history ...Black n White BAD guys Good guys right SKol ...Saddam was a friend of the US aka Iraq-US Vs Iran Russian War as to why he had so many US made weapons..... \

but like a jilted lover the US turned him on hime once he ditched the USD and wanted euro's for Iraq oil .

..the west didn't give a toss for dictator rule else they would have removed him the first time ....and the doz other dictator rulers round the world ...


Osama Bin Laden was, though, a product of a monumental miscalculation by western security agencies. Throughout the 80s he was armed by the CIA and funded by the Saudis to wage jihad against the Russian occupation of Afghanistan.....the bin laden family was very good friends with the Bush family ...Osama's older brother and G.W bush were co founders of the Arbusto Energy oil company based in texas......

Soros has made many a smart move most likely he will again on his short of the S&P bubble

[Skol]

JB,

Soros is remembered for his smart moves, not his cock-ups.

The USA didn't want Iraqi oil, Saddam wanted Saudi oil. He wanted to rule the oil world, unfortunately for him his army was like the new Egyptian Tank, 1 forward gear and 6 reverse. When the cold steel came out his prancing Republican Guard were a bunch of girls.

[cyclist]

You are a little young for Rog moosie. Not my favourite of his, but a goodie after a few listens. Skol, that we rant about Saddam Hussein et all is the best bait from you yet (for better or worse)

[Skol]

What you see happening is Russia is a portent of what's going to happen in China. The USa will remain the dominant world power and the USD the reserve currency.

[corran]

Anyone have any guesses as to what gold is going to do this week? I'm going for a retest of $1300 as the markets move higher and PoG charts complete a top on the chart last week.

I'll go for the opposite... gold higher (above 1350) and markets sharply lower....

[Skol]

USD up, gold down. The Ukraine is about as far away from civilisation as you can get. Adolf Hitler found that out, the hard way.

[Bobcat.]

Let's not forget that the determination of Florence Nightingale and the charge of the Light Brigade ("ours is not to reason why, ours is but to do or die") were both located on the Crimean peninsular. Up until 1954, Crimea was part of the USSR before it was gifted to Ukraine, and the now Russian Federation has a huge strategic interest in that area (with naval base, etc).

The USA is sabre rattling with cold war fervour at any hint of the Russians bringing its military into that area (regardless of the fact that almost 60% identify themselves as Russian and their political leader has invited them in).

Tensions brewing, therefore stronger US dollar and weaker equities this week, IMO.

As for Gold this week, I'm not sure and so am holding just a few favourite PM stocks. Many pundits/analysts are guessing a falling away but mainly because they see that a correction is overdue. If there is one, it will be short-lived in my view. Since December, the tide on precious metals has turned. Onward and upward through 2014.

BC

[Daytr]

Sorry a little late today, got held up by having to fillet a good haul of snapper caught this morning!

Gold closed well in the last few hours of trading on Friday with the tensions over the Ukraine building. My read of Obama is he will do everything to avoid going to war in a far flung Eastern European country. Economic sanctions & pressurizing the UN/NATO & Europe to act rather than using US troops. Russia must be able to sense the US reluctance & will take full advantage. Obama wants to downsize the military by 100k troops & bring the budget under control accordingly. The Ukraine is split in its support toward Russia & Europe, by ethnic groups & geography. It is likely this could get bloody, however more likely in the form of a civil war with Russia & the West supporting each side. The risk to Russia is the UN backs the West & makes it difficult for Russia to carry out their plan. Gold will be supported this week just when it probably needs it most, as it has been stagnating for the last week, albeit just off the recent highs. The risk was, Asian demand softening reflected in the discount in the Asian market that usually trades at a slight premium. We are now in March & India has said they will review their import duties on gold & this could prove to be another positive in the coming weeks. Equity markets in the US pushed a little higher & I still hold my view that they are about to correct sharply. Gold should test $1350/60 this week.

[Daytr]

I think any economic sanctions against Russia are likely to leak like a sieve & Russia being a massive gas supplier to Europe would also have a telling effect on the frail European economy. I would have thought China is a likely buyer of any surplus oil Russia has to sell if need be.

Skol, I just read on e of your posts re Soros. As far as I am aware he only entered his short on the S&P in the last few months & then doubled up again recently. He also took a massive long position in resource stocks mostly gold about six months ago. So I would say his position is looking rather pretty right now!

[Skol]

Skol, I just read on e of your posts re Soros. As far as I am aware he only entered his short on the S&P in the last few months & then doubled up again recently. He also took a massive long position in resource stocks mostly gold about six months ago. So I would say his position is looking rather pretty right now!

I thought you had me on ignore?

It was reported on Aug 15th last year about Soros' massive S&P short and since the 13F filing is at the end of the quarter he would have had it before August, so at least 8 months. Soros must be squirming, since July last year the S&P is up about 14%.

Soros dumped gold in the second quarter of 2013.

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/08/15/soross-biggest-holding-a-bearish-call-on-the-sp-500/

Russia's economy is in a very parlous state, all the west has to do is ban the purchase of Russian oil, or alternatively, crash it, to bring Putin to his knees.

[Daytr]

Soros sold physical gold & bought a massive option position in gold producers. Both being option positions he can only loose his premium which agree he will have lost some on the S&P trade, however its likely he has made multiples on his gold producer position.

You are on ignore, however I can still selectively look at your posts just to see what tosh you are spinning that needs correction!

[skid]

Ban that sweet Russian oil?,I dont think so buddy---I would never put you on ignore Skol-your just to much fun:)

[skid]

You know you have a very rose tinted view of history ...Black n White BAD guys Good guys right SKol ...Saddam was a friend of the US aka Iraq-US Vs Iran Russian War as to why he had so many US made weapons..... \

but like a jilted lover the US turned him on hime once he ditched the USD and wanted euro's for Iraq oil .

..the west didn't give a toss for dictator rule else they would have removed him the first time ....and the doz other dictator rulers round the world ...


Osama Bin Laden was, though, a product of a monumental miscalculation by western security agencies. Throughout the 80s he was armed by the CIA and funded by the Saudis to wage jihad against the Russian occupation of Afghanistan.....the bin laden family was very good friends with the Bush family ...Osama's older brother and G.W bush were co founders of the Arbusto Energy oil company based in texas......

Soros has made many a smart move most likely he will again on his short of the S&P bubble

Spot on JB He was supremely double crossed by the US

[skid]

Let's not forget that the determination of Florence Nightingale and the charge of the Light Brigade ("ours is not to reason why, ours is but to do or die") were both located on the Crimean peninsular. Up until 1954, Crimea was part of the USSR before it was gifted to Ukraine, and the now Russian Federation has a huge strategic interest in that area (with naval base, etc).

The USA is sabre rattling with cold war fervour at any hint of the Russians bringing its military into that area (regardless of the fact that almost 60% identify themselves as Russian and their political leader has invited them in).

Tensions brewing, therefore stronger US dollar and weaker equities this week, IMO.

As for Gold this week, I'm not sure and so am holding just a few favourite PM stocks. Many pundits/analysts are guessing a falling away but mainly because they see that a correction is overdue. If there is one, it will be short-lived in my view. Since December, the tide on precious metals has turned. Onward and upward through 2014.

BC

Yep--Ukraine is a bit like Kashmir in that respect--Its part of one country but most of its people have ethnic ties to another--Not that anyone who has power or $$ in mind cares about that.

[skid]

In some ways I just wonder if the rest of the world (even the allies) wouldnt mind a bit more balance in the balance of power--they have been pushing it pretty hard over in wash. DC with things like the ole phone taps on their supposedly friends (thats gotta piss you off)

[Bobcat.]

... all the west has to do is ban the purchase of Russian oil, or alternatively, crash it, to bring Putin to his knees.

Russia and China are getting along nicely, beefing up their oil trade deals (that don't use $USD of course).

http://rt.com/business/rosneft-china-sinopec-oil-537/

...although I'm not sure what this has to do with 'Gold'...

[skid]

Black Gold?
I guess anything that undermines the US economy or the international currency might have an effect on Gold--but your right its certainly not headline news on the gold market.

[Skol]

Putin is considering invading the Ukraine because of the Russian speaking population.

Adolf Hitler invaded Czechoslovakia and Austria because of the German speaking population. Putin won't have the balls, Russia could be brought to its knees without much trouble, there are multiple options open to the west.

Putin's got enough problems with terrorists on his doorstep without encouraging more, the russians murdered millions of Ukrainians in the 30's, they won't have forgotten.

Crashing the oil and gas price, moving missiles close to Russia, banning exports, arming the Ukraine, expelling them from the G8 to name a few, besides the Ukrainian army wouldn't stand a chance, but lots of Russians could go home in body bags.

Not a good look. In the 1930's the USSR invaded Finland, the miniscule Finnish army killed tens of thousands of Russians, one Finnish sniper killed 500 Russians. Iron sights too, very impressive.

[JBmurc]

Man PoG is spiking hard today...

Yeah IMHO was always going to happen >>now if only SOC would move with it arrrgg


AUD GOLD just SMASHED $1500 to 1506oz

[JBmurc]

Oh no skol! mass media finally waking up ? or is the age goldbugs ?
http://www.theage.com.au/business/markets/the-fix-is-in-are-gold-prices-a-gigantic-bank-scam-20140303-3402k.html

[Skol]

Oh no skol! mass media finally waking up ? or is the age goldbugs ?
http://www.theage.com.au/business/markets/the-fix-is-in-are-gold-prices-a-gigantic-bank-scam-20140303-3402k.html

Gold prices are being manipulated. Upwards.

Who would want to buy it? No dividend, a peaceful world, stockmarkets and property on a tear. Only for the paranoid.

http://nypost.com/2014/03/01/warren-buffetts-advice-to-his-wife-is-investment-gold/

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-01/chinese-pass-u-s-as-biggest-australia-property-investors.html

Russian stockmarket down 11.3%, hardly the kind of news that's going to endear Putin to his subjects.

The worm is starting to turn. lol

[Bobcat.]

Gold prices are being manipulated. Upwards.

Who would want to buy it? No dividend, a peaceful world, stockmarkets and property on a tear. Only for the paranoid.

http://nypost.com/2014/03/01/warren-buffetts-advice-to-his-wife-is-investment-gold/

But Skol, when a goldbug last year (was it Daytr?) argued that the price of Gold was being manipulated down, you rubbished his thinking as conspiracy laden.

And now you are doing the same to suit your own contrary world view on Gold. I'm inclined to think the rising POG has more to do with a rising fear factor around the Ukraine situation, but I'm interested in your angle - do you have any evidence?

BC

[JBmurc]

Should be in Gold,Grains and Gas

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/should-be-in-gold-grains-and-gas-smith-E0JTiBMaTpW4h3vfuiUayQ.html

[Skol]

I'll be buying something over the next few days, not sure what yet, sitting on 15% cash after selling last week. The Buffett philosophy.

It won't be gold or silver though. Russian markets getting a thrashing, stockmarket down as much as 13% and Russian tech index traded in the USA down 15%.

The Russians getting a taste of how modern communications can decimate a portfolio. The rouble has hit historic lows and there's a huge demand for USD's.

[Skol]

But Skol, when a goldbug last year (was it Daytr?) argued that the price of Gold was being manipulated down, you rubbished his thinking as conspiracy laden

Well answer this one.

For 20 years after the 1980 gold crash, gold didn't vary by more than about $100, despite a litany of international crises like the 1980's recession, the Latin American debt crisis, the Asian currency drama, the Russian Constitutional crisis, the Gulf War and the Kosovo War to name a few. The gold price flatlined for 2 decades.

Some bluster from 'action man' Putin and gold is on its way. Doesn't stack up. Might be a pump and dump.

[Bobcat.]

Some bluster from 'action man' Putin and gold is on its way. Doesn't stack up. Might be a pump and dump.

Yeah, maybe. There is some technical resistance around 1360USD which we are getting close to now. With the Ukraine situation, this bullish run may still have some legs, but I agree that some consolidation is due. Any good news re Ukraine will I think drop the PoG.

Predictably, US Equity markets are down almost 1%.

[Skol]

Warren Buffett's still buying, during WW2 the stockmarket still advanced.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101459508

[skid]

This whole thing is operating against a backdrop of a VERY fragile economy in general (despite those slightly better numbers)
Theres a good chance things(share market) will bounce back if this thing fizzles with the resulting drop in Gold -but just keep in mind theres not much back up in this world economy these days --that may be the reason for the stronger than expected reaction to this event.
If the ball starts rolling just how resilient is the economy to withstand it?
This is the major league now,not just some 2 bit small country (regardless of how whimpish some choose to paint it)

[Daytr]

BC, it was me that suggested the gold market was being manipulated downward. In all my years in banking I never saw that sort of behavior, however it obviously exists, as the Investment banks have been caught out & paying billions of dollars in fines. I have never thought the banks had a bias against gold unless there was a buck in it, another words they would treat gold like any other financial instrument.

On gold, it has obviously done well in the last 24 hours up over 1.5% & breaking $1350. There is resistance at $1360, however I see major resistance at $1420. What is encouraging about this rally is gold hasn't really soared. I have seen it spike 5-6% on a big night on the back of international crisis & usually straight afterwards it gives it all back. The buying appears relatively cautious & that has to be a good thing in the long run. The Ukraine will get worse before it gets better, however as long as it doesn't erupt into a full scale war between the Russians & the West, the story will get old & have less impact on the gold price, as a story. However there are other implications such as inflated gas prices in Europe, the Brent oil price along with it which will inflict economic strain on Europe in particular. Then there is the economic woes of the Ukraine as it is basically bankrupt & at some point there will need to be a bailout. With the Ukraine grabbing all the headlines, what the mass media are tending to forget is the Ukraine is just the first of many countries in a similar financial state & I'm sure it wont be on its own in regards regime change & civil unrest if not civil war. I believe this will be the tone for 2014 & perhaps 2015 & there will be large financial losses to come imo, particularly from European banks that have the largest exposure to the Emerging Markets. Hardly a time for equities to continue their push higher & we may have seen the start of the push lower in equities in the last 24 hours. One would have to expect gold to attempt $1420 in the coming month & that will be its real test. India by then may have completed their review on import duties & this may well be the catalyst to push gold through that big technical level. Happy trading! Cheers Daytr

[skid]

Putin's realising the hard way that even the threat of force is tantamount to economic suicide. 11% drop in the MCIX overnight (that would be MASSIVE on the DJI!) with interest rates jacked higher and massive capital outflows.

Whose economy is a bit fragile right now again...?

The worlds--but it looks like Russia is leading the way right now

[skid]

With Europe potentially feeling the affects as well

[Skol]

I was thinking about buying, but gold seems to be taking a hit and what I'm interested in hasn't declined.

Could be it's a storm in a teacup, gung-ho Putin needs a face-saving way of extracting himself from the mess. Apparently troops involved in exercises have been 'returned to barracks'.

[Skol]

Daytr gets it completely wrong unsurprisingly.

"The Ukraine will get worse before it gets better"

"Hardly a time for equities to continue their push higher & we may have seen the start of the push lower in equities in the last 24 hours."

Gold down about $20 and EU equities up 2.5%

Dow up 220.

[skid]

Daytr gets it completely wrong unsurprisingly.

"The Ukraine will get worse before it gets better"

"Hardly a time for equities to continue their push higher & we may have seen the start of the push lower in equities in the last 24 hours."

Gold down about $20 and EU equities up 2.5%

Dow up 220.

Nobody really knows do they?
I think alot were surprised it jumped so much in the first place.
Id still be careful with equities though--sitting on one bubble and talking about another is not a great strategy IMO

[Skol]

I don't see any metrics suggesting we're in a bubble. DJI & Nasdaq sitting on a P/E of about 23 and NZX on 13. Height of dotcom it was more like 48. Only half way there if you're counting!

Correct Moose, gold was a bubble, a real classic.

Equities are not in a bubble, the economy is recovering, equities are tracking upwards at a reasonable rate, earnings are up.

Putin might be a little shellshocked by the financial wreckage after his unwise foray into Crimea.

[corran]

I don't see any metrics suggesting we're in a bubble.

Total market cap to GDP (the buffet indicator) is showing US equities as being significantly overvalued

[Daytr]

Moosie, do you know what a P/E of 23 actually means, let alone 48? Its a rhetorical question as I'm sure you do. However it means that at the current rate of earnings it will take the company 23 years to make the return the market is placing on it on that company. To compare any valuation to the Dotcom bubble is foolhardy to say the least, as we all know where the NASDAQ ended up (down 77%!) & after 13 years or so has still not recovered those ridiculous levels. Actually of all the indices the NASDAQ probably has the most potential, maybe not from the here & now, but over time as it is a tech laden index & we are finally seeing in the last five years or so how money can be made from the internet. There will still be spectacular blow ups in this sector with massive amounts of money being poured into technology that will never make a buck, but there will be a fair share of great success stories as well. I venture the latter will be a minority of investments, a bit like mining stocks the risk / reward is high. The market unfortunately has learnt very little from 2007/08 & unless it resets its valuations & returns to a more realistic level then another crash is inevitable in my opinion. Fundamentals will always come home to roost & markets will only go up for so long on the basis that money is pouring in, just so 'we don't miss out' or chasing the market. Its an old saying & a valuable one. 'When the taxis drivers start yellin, its time to start sellin ! Imo this is exactly what is happening in the US, Funds & Instos are talking up equities as they sell their positions on to the retail market. So it will end up being Mom & Pop who end up holding the bath water...

[Skol]

'When the taxis drivers start yellin, its time to start sellin ! Imo this is exactly what is happening in the US, Funds & Instos are talking up equities as they sell their positions on to the retail market. So it will end up being Mom & Pop who end up holding the bath water...

Another goldbug crying wolf, urging suckers to buy gold that earns SFA. lol

In the meantime Warren Buffett's on a spending spree. What's that mean to the trained mind?

[Daytr]

I often talk of backflips in my posts & Putin I think is in the running for the Russia 2016 Rio gymnastics team. What I am not sure of is did he run head first into the vaulting box, or has he performed a triple summersault but is yet to work out his finishing routine. Quite an incredible turn of events in the last 24 hours with Putin seemingly backing down from a very aggressive stance only 24 hours ago. Two things come to mind on why Putin would make such a public show of flexing Russian muscle & then rolling out the diplomatic carpet right behind. Perhaps Putting underestimated the financial fallout with Russian equities dropping 10%+ 36 hours ago & the potential for capital flight? Did this spook him? Possibly, or was their a back room deal done with the Europe & the US? Could Russia have been promised some of what they want without the need to go to war? Who knows, but it wouldn't surprise me as it wouldn't be the first time the West & Russia have carved up countries between them. Putin could also be playing the long game & seeing perhaps what he can get by being patient. Either equity markets reacted strongly to the change in stance with US equities up around 1.5% & the S&P to another record high. My negative view remains the same on US equities & also that the Ukrainian issue or similar events like it around the Emerging Markets are far from over. My take is the fast / smart money i.e. hedge funds are deleveraging from equities & brokers are now selling to retail who will be left holding the bath water. Gold is down around 1.2%, not huge considering the change in events in the last 24 hours & remember it put on something like 1.8% prior. The next 24 hours should prove a testing time & it will be interesting to see how Asia views the price this morning. Typically in the last few months Asia has done the exact opposite of the Northern Hemisphere markets. Happy trading! Cheers Daytr

[blackcap]

I don't see any metrics suggesting we're in a bubble. DJI & Nasdaq sitting on a P/E of about 23 and NZX on 13. Height of dotcom it was more like 48. Only half way there if you're counting!

If the NZX is sitting on a PE of 13 it has got plenty to go. I do not know who would be bearish on the NZX... with earnings looking to improve as well in the coming years this 5000 level is in my opinion very sustainable and I would not be surprised to see 6000 within 12 months (if earnings keep improving)

[Daytr]

Skol, so Buffet should, as he has over 50 Billion in cash! Yes cash not equities. USDs that earn about the same interest rate as gold & has been depreciating against every major currency in the world. Buffet is obviously a great investor & what he has is generally good timing & patience & he generally sticks to what he knows. Perhaps that's sage advice from the Sage of Omaha that you could take up Skol, as you certainly know very little about gold. Your copy, edit & paste technique though is 2nd to none! Keep up the fine work as 90% of it falls on deaf ears here. LOL

I am not anti the US or US equity markets or the global economy. I would love to have rose coloured glasses & saying the global economy is just fine. However I have a view & that is that US equity markets are over valued particularly considering the global economic back drop. At some point they wont be, but at this point imo they are. FYI I have never urged anyone to buy gold. Stop making things up & I suggest you just stick to your copying, selective editing & pasting. Its your forte! LOL


Another goldbug crying wolf, urging suckers to buy gold that earns SFA. lol

In the meantime Warren Buffett's on a spending spree. What's that tell you?

[Daytr]

Moosie, I didn't say the US equities will fall off a cliff, however I wouldn't be surprised to see a reasonably sharp correction. Markets very seldom sit still waiting for something to catch up. To be honest imo, that is clutching at straws & I have heard plenty of that recently from US equity brokers & the like. Markets can stay irrational a lot longer than you can stay solvent is another very valid saying. I would suggest this is why Soros takes out option positions, as he knows what he is risking up front in the form of premium & he is prepared to risk that to make multiples. I also wasn't commenting on the NZX & it is much more reasonably valued at a PE of 13ish, although I would question if it has plenty to go. Why is higher than 13 a reasonable number? How can this be justified? I would never invest in company that has a PE greater than 10 unless its revenue growth potential was spectacular & most companies I invest in have a PE ratio under 5 unless they are gold explorers.

[Bobcat.]

I'm of the view that the British (FTSE) and Japanese (NIKKEI) economies and indices have more upside than the US Equity markets.

And yes, I too expected Gold to drop in price more so than it did last night. Down $25 is not very bearish IMO If it holds OK through the next 24hrs we may see another lift Thursday on the NYMEX. Trading accordingly. There could be some good PM buys just after the asx market opens today - e.g. TRY, SLR, ALK, etc

BC

[Skol]

Skol, so Buffet should, as he has over 50 Billion in cash! Yes cash not equities. USDs that earn about the same interest rate as gold & has been depreciating against every major currency in the world. Buffet is obviously a great investor & what he has is generally good timing & patience & he generally sticks to what he knows. Perhaps that's sage advice from the Sage of Omaha that you could take up Skol, as you certainly know very little about gold. Your copy, edit & paste technique though is 2nd to none! Keep up the fine work as 90% of it falls on deaf ears here. LOL

I am not anti the US or US equity markets or the global economy. I would love to have rose coloured glasses & saying the global economy is just fine. However I have a view & that is that US equity markets are over valued particularly considering the global economic back drop. At some point they wont be, but at this point imo they are. FYI I have never urged anyone to buy gold. Stop making things up & I suggest you just stick to your copying, selective editing & pasting. Its your forte! LOL

I know quite a bit about gold Daytr, but actually there's not a hell of a lot to know, like Warren Buffett I've never owned it. As gold reached it peak a few years back and I warned of an huge bubble, goldbugs used to tell me, just like you, that "you don't know anything about gold".

Here's BRK-A vs gold for 2 years, but if you think I'm cherry-picking select another time frame up to 5 years.

[Daytr]

Skol, it might surprise you to know I have never owned gold either. I may do in the future, but at this point I would rather invest in gold producers. That's not saying there aren't other investments that make sense or will perform better. If you do actually know quite a lot about Skol, why don't you actually post something that justifies this claim rather than the tosh you normally spin? LOL!!! 'I know quite a lot about gold'. Two things I love about this claim. 1) It made my morning as its always good to have a giggle & 2) I love people who self promote their knowledge rather than their actual experience or something that actually provides evidence of this so called knowledge / wisdom, when your posts actually betray the validity of this claim.

It must be pick on Skol day! Its not my fault he makes it so easy...

[Skol]

Skol, it might surprise you to know I have never owned gold either. I may do in the future, but at this point I would rather invest in gold producers. That's not saying there aren't other investments that make sense or will perform better. If you do actually know quite a lot about Skol, why don't you actually post something that justifies this claim rather than the tosh you normally spin? LOL!!! 'I know quite a lot about gold'. Two things I love about this claim. 1) It made my morning as its always good to have a giggle & 2) I love people who self promote their knowledge rather than their actual experience or something that actually provides evidence of this so called knowledge / wisdom, when your posts actually betray the validity of this claim.

It must be pick on Skol day! Its not my fault he makes it so easy...

There certainly isn't much to know about gold, all you have to do is look at all the suckers that have lost money, first in 1980 and then in 2011. Only a moron couldn't see those coming, but I've got a thick skin I've been rubbished so much by the goldbugs, mostly prior to its 2011 crash.

I hope none of your disciples have taken your advice:
1. The situation in Ukraine will get worse before it gets better.
2. Stockmarkets are in a bubble.
3. "It's likely this could get bloody"
4. "Gold should test $1350/$1360 this week
ad. infinitum

Looks like you're setting yourself up to be another chicken little like Peter Schiff or Eric Sprott.

Keep reading your tarot cards. Hahaha

Maybe you can join this list of dreamers Daytr, world renowned gold 'experts' predicting gold prices so absurd that only a rank amateur could get sucked in by it all.

http://www.thevoicemagazine.com/money-finances-business/economy/5000-gold-bandwagon-now-includes-these-65-analysts-got-gold.html

[Daytr]

Skol, I knew it was a mistake to engage you as it does waste time.
But lets look at your list above.

1. The situation in Ukraine will get worse before it gets better. Are you saying Skol that the Ukraine situation is over?
2. Stockmarkets are in a bubble. Actually I stated the US stock markets are in a bubble & I stand by it.
3. "It's likely this could get bloody" Yes & it still could, obviously things have improved in the last 24 hours & it may remain that way, its hard to tell.
4. "Gold should test $1350/$1360 this week. I'm not sure what you are smoking Skol, however it already has, in fact it traded 1355 within 24 hours of me saying that. I also said it will test $1420 within a month & I stand by that as well. It may well test $1350 again this week, it probably a 50:50 call at this point, however I am seeing it as an opportunity to buy some gold stocks.

What was your big call at the start of this thread in 2009, oh yeah gold was in a bubble & it then went on to put on another circa 80% & has still never been that low since you made that comment. What was the other one more recently. Oh yes, gold is going to $600 Well you are only 50+ percent off the mark there as well.

Skol I give you too much credit by responding to any of your posts. I make calls & I freely admit they wont always be right. Anyone that says they get it right all the time is a liar. Anyone who never admits to be wrong, is a fool.

Later Skol.

[skid]

''I know quite a bit about Gold-but actually theres not a hell of alot to know'':):)

Do you mind if I send that one to Jon Stewart Skol?

[Daytr]

Nice one Moosie :) Was happy to oblige, however wont be wasting my time in future.

[skid]

Daytr, I'm not saying we should be at those levels, just using it for comparison. its all relative...

Also looked up indicators on Vector Grader. Seems everything else is pretty hunk dory other than GDP to market cap. So, why can't the economy simply catch up then? Just because it goes up doesn't mean it has to fall off a cliff. it can go sideways for the next year or so while the economy improves!

So your saying the share market goes to all time highs (in the USA) and then waits for the sick economy to catch up--or maybe keeps rocketing and doesnt even wait--maybe but I wouldnt bet the farm on it.

NZ is certainly looking better,but do you think that will cut any mustard if the big boys get in trouble?

[Skol]

Daytr,

Don't take it too seriously, it's all a bit of fun and if you make money trading gold miners I say well done, however there's a lot of truth in Mark Twain's definition of a gold mine.

"A gold mine is a hole in the ground with a liar standing next to it"

Many will attest to that, and I was living in Canada when this baby went down, a $6b scandal:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bre-X

[Daytr]

So you are referring to a fraud Skol, so really has nothing to do with the price of gold. Shall we start discussing the banks then?
Don't worry Skol, I never take you seriously but unfortunately you don't make it fun. I am always willing to joust with others who have an alternative view, that's if it comes from a foundation of fact & knowledge. That's not the case here I'm afraid & it just lowers the quality of the discussion imo.

[corran]

As gold reached it peak a few years back and I warned of an huge bubble, goldbugs used to tell me, just like you, that "you don't know anything about gold".


Skol - you were bleating on about a bubble when gold was about USD $900 way back in 2009! It almost doubled from that price and still hasn't got back down to those levels!

[Skol]

Skol - you were bleating on about a bubble when gold was about USD $900 way back in 2009! It almost doubled from that price and still hasn't got back down to those levels!

Corran,

You are a first class exaggerator, I won't use the real word I'd like to use which begins with L.

When I started this thread at the end on the last day of 2009 gold was about $1150 and was beginning it's steep and then vertical ascent and subsequent crash. I predicted it, the same as I predicted the oil crash, and if you'd like proof go to the peak oil thread.

It just needs a little time, everything reverts to the mean, eventually. And if you own gold which I have no doubt you do, you've probably done heaps over the last few years, waiting for the great Armageddon which you keep on telling us about.

[clip]

ignore this. edited

[Skol]

Am i reading the graph wrong or does the end of 2009 show gold at less than $1000, not $1150? is there a currency difference?

What does the chart show at the beginning of 2010? The $69 question.

[corran]

according to you Skol, the price at end of 2009 was $1095....


I've given it some thought JB:
Bet you a $100 bottle of wine, (to be provided with receipt) gold will end lower at the end of 2010 than at the end of 2009.
End of 2009 price $1095.
Is it a deal?


The way you play the man rather than the ball is wearing a bit thin Skol.

[Skol]

according to you Skol, the price at end of 2009 was $1095....




The way you play the man rather than the ball is wearing a bit thin Skol.

What did you say it was? $900.

Look at the chart, and start telling the truth.

[corran]

What did you say it was? $900.

Look at the chart, and start telling the truth.

I'm pretty sure you were bagging Gold before 31/12/2009 but I'm not going to spend my time trawling through old posts to prove it.

[clip]

What does the chart show at the beginning of 2010? The $69 question.

hah wow terrible on my part. Need more sleep!

[skid]

Corran,

You are a first class exaggerator, I won't use the real word I'd like to use which begins with L.

When I started this thread at the end on the last day of 2009 gold was about $1150 and was beginning it's steep and then vertical ascent and subsequent crash. I predicted it, the same as I predicted the oil crash, and if you'd like proof go to the peak oil thread.

It just needs a little time, everything reverts to the mean, eventually. And if you own gold which I have no doubt you do, you've probably done heaps over the last few years, waiting for the great Armageddon which you keep on telling us about.

All you have to do is deduct time from the equation and Skol is right every time!

[skid]

I'm pretty sure you were bagging Gold before 31/12/2009 but I'm not going to spend my time trawling through old posts to prove it.

It starts with ''Ive been having this debate with JBmurc on another thread about Gold''------I guess the answer to your question is how long was that debate going on and what was skols opinion on gold

[skid]

Im always amused by the way headlines are slanted
headline 1--Fed reports modest growth despite adverse weather conditions
headline2--Gold ends slightly up after more tepid US economic data :)

[Skol]

The S&P500 Total Return Index (incls dividends) goes back to June 1986.

It was 239, now 3375, up 14.1 times.

The gold price in June 1986 was $350, now $1337, up 3.8 times.

As you can see compared with dividend paying stocks, gold is a lousy long-term bet.

[Daytr]

Gold tried higher overnight & ended up closing flat as to did the US equity markets. The market is taking a breather it seems after all the wild gyrations of the last few weeks created by the turmoil in the Ukraine. Gold has had what I would term a solid performance, not sky rocketing, but putting in steady gains & pullbacks have been shallow, a sign of a market that is displaying a positive outlook. The banks one after the other are slowly revising their forecasts higher, albeit still what I would call a lagging indicator. The heavy weights are still yet to change their tune although they now seem to be stretching their timelines & forecasting now a longer term re-trace in gold. Most of their thesis is based on the US economy continuing to improve & interest rates will eventually rise. We have now had 4-5 year of zero interest rates & a massive stimulus program which is being withdrawn. QE has pumped up equity markets to in some cases record levels & has bought the US time to recover, although it has yet to be seen at what long term cost. Gold has seen a massive washout & Asia has picked up the slack, so the question now is where does the selling come from to meet these dire forecasts for the gold price? At this point it is difficult to see the market shorting gold with such volatility in the emerging markets. US interest rates are likely to stay very low for a considerable time yet. Corporate profits for multi-nationals in many cases have been artificially inflated by utilizing international tax loop holes to reduce their corporate tax considerably. This is an area that will be targeted in my opinion & this will impact PE ratios considerably making already inflated PE rations & equity valuations balloon. Hardly an environment to be negative on gold.

[Daytr]

Morning all, gold posted solid 1% gains overnight as the Ukraine situation came back on the boil. Its interesting that Putin is utilizing a form of democracy via a vote in the Crimean parliament,t to force a referendum which could likely see Crimea vote to join the Russian Federation, rather staying as part of the Ukraine & aligning itself with the EU. Remember Crimea was already partially self governing & the largest minority population is Russian. Correct me if I am wrong here, but I don't remember Obama threatening Scotland or the UK in regards Scotland's up coming vote on independence? The US argument imo looks weak & it will be difficult for them to gain international support if Putin gets his way via a referendum. We now see why Putin pulled back the troops 48 hours ago. The US I feel are fighting a losing battle here & what their next move is will be interesting. Sanctions on Russia will also hurt Europe & are unlikely to get widespread international support unless Russia intervenes with its military, which is increasingly less likely. The US has started its own muscle flexing with troop exercises to be performed in Poland. The US cannot be seen as the aggressor here as again their international support imo will wane & the US is war weary. Equity markets were also up slightly overnight, again running in tandem with gold. This correlation will not last & one has to give & I am obviously of the view it will be equities that falter. Comments from the IMF about further cash injections (bailouts) to European banks hardly filled me with confidence. What don't we know? Well what we do know is its the European banks that have the largest exposure to the Emerging Markets & yet we have seen very few write offs relating to this sector... yet. The tax payers of Europe & the non-tax payers i.e. the masses of unemployed, will soon get tired of seeing billions being injected into banks that still do not follow the law or trade ethically & are driven by a culture of greed. Revolutions are inspired by such contempt. I will keep re-iterating this, keep an eye on the European banks. A final note to keep in tune with the thread for the week that's it won't all be about the Ukraine. Syria is about to miss a major deadline on its chemical weapon disposal program funnily enough agreed with the US & Russia. Surely the Syrians wouldn't be taking advantage of the US being distracted by the Ukrainian situation. Libya too is displaying its ugly side with the chaos ruling & again on the brink of civil war. I could go on.... Happy Friday. Cheers Daytr

[elZorro]

Thanks for the roundup Daytr. Here's something from the TA people INO: opposite view on gold in the short term.

http://www.ino.com/blog/2014/03/is-the-gold-move-over/#.Uxol4LlWG00

[Skol]

A BBC programme called "How China Fooled the World" should be required viewing for goldbugs who think China's gonna rule the world.

It's about the level of debt they have, described by a chinese analyst based in China as 'off the charts' and estimated at $24 to $25 trillion USD, the level of property speculation, the possibility of the property market and the banks melting down, the corruption, the shadow banking system, that 15% of all residential property in China is empty and they're still building, credit 2X GDP and growing 2X as fast, the NGO's that have colossal amounts of debt with no possibility of paying it back and the number of local corrupt oficials going to jail at an increasing rate.

Shows a 13,000 sq. ft. model of the city of Wuhan as it's projected to be in 2020, all done with debt.

Someone's going to blink in the property market and cause a crash, everyone's happy because the market keeps going up, but it's all completely unsustainable, anyone who says the USD isn't going to be the reserve currency is dreaming.

It's going to end badly, very.

I agree with Warren Buffett, he's bullish on the USA and says "America's best days lie ahead".

Here it is on Youtube:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YW3h4wv8_ko

[JBmurc]

Yeah skol for sure China,s internal debt is a major issue .. For china ,,, like owning yourself money
"Fiat money" oh no we may have to write off trillions in debt and crash the value of the $Yuan vs USD peg >>>the biggest manufacturer of trade goods just lowers cost to operate attracting further
Investment .... High cost imports of oil etc taken care of Russian/Iran energy deals

[Daytr]

Gold got crunched circa 1% on Friday on a US jobs number that was stronger than anticipated. Yes it was better than expected, considering the weather & other data of late, however it was only considered 'strong ' as expectation was so low. To put this number in perspective, it is the equivalent of the Australian economy of adding 10k jobs. Hardly stellar, but it still must be acknowledged as it was an ok number & equity markets did so closing slightly positive. Gold still looks poised to take on the next level above $1360, although the market is getting speculatively relatively long & this is something to be aware of. Goldman's are counting on it as they stick to their $1000/ounce forecast. As mentioned on many occasion, the Ukraine is hardly the only problem in the emerging markets & we sill continue to see one country after the other either call for bailouts or look to quell civil unrest. The world fears contagion of what we have seen in the Ukraine & its right they should, as its a very real possibility.

See the link below, it just displays how removed from reality & credibility some of the investment banks have become.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-09/morgan-stanley-goldman-said-to-swap-fees-for-deal-credit.html

[skid]

A BBC programme called "How China Fooled the World" should be required viewing for goldbugs who think China's gonna rule the world.

It's about the level of debt they have, described by a chinese analyst based in China as 'off the charts' and estimated at $24 to $25 trillion USD, the level of property speculation, the possibility of the property market and the banks melting down, the corruption, the shadow banking system, that 15% of all residential property in China is empty and they're still building, credit 2X GDP and growing 2X as fast, the NGO's that have colossal amounts of debt with no possibility of paying it back and the number of local corrupt oficials going to jail at an increasing rate.

Shows a 13,000 sq. ft. model of the city of Wuhan as it's projected to be in 2020, all done with debt.

Someone's going to blink in the property market and cause a crash, everyone's happy because the market keeps going up, but it's all completely unsustainable, anyone who says the USD isn't going to be the reserve currency is dreaming.

It's going to end badly, very.

I agree with Warren Buffett, he's bullish on the USA and says "America's best days lie ahead".

Here it is on Youtube:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YW3h4wv8_ko

Good to see you have finally taken notice of the ''debt bubble'' but its not only China.
To think this will not cause major collateral damage to the USA is a bit short sighted though--We are now in the 21st century global economy and China is the USAs bank.

[skid]

China, the future powerhouse of the world (hand me another Tui).

http://www.mining.com/iron-ore-price-craters-8-67965/

Yikes!

This does not bode well for Australia (or dredging for Iron sands off the coast of Taranaki)

[skid]

There are just so many things that can go wrong that sometimes we may just need something a little stronger than a Tui.
For every stellar year we have, there will be more pieces for my kids (Moosie's generation) to pick up when it comes time to pay.
Enjoy this party while it lasts..

[Daytr]

Gold managed a positive close after trading as low as $1328. In recent weeks we have seen a switch in demand with Asian selling being met with Western buying, such is the swing in sentiment in the West as ETF selling has come to a standstill & a trickle of inflows has begun. The question to be answered, is this sustainable? There is now a steep discount in Asia for gold which would normally signal a sharp sell off & if we were still in 2013 we would have seen gold sharply lower by now. Another set back for gold is that the Indian government has said they will now not review the import duties on gold, stating that 10% is not high for a luxury item. This is true if you see gold as jewelry, or a gold watch, however if you see it as a store of wealth as a billion Indians do, then this is a tax on an 'investment' alternative. As 75% of Indian villages do not have a local bank branch, their alternatives are limited. It will be interesting to see if this policy becomes a major election issue & I suspect it might. Its quite a political gamble they are taking & it may be costly. Equity markets in the US closed slightly lower after Asian markets took a bit of a bath following the recent deficit data out of China. The US seems impregnable against all woes of the world at this point, however this will not last imo as the US is not an island, far from it & the European banks imo will be the catalyst for contagion of losses that flow from Europe & impact global equities including the US. The iron ore price got thumped again & many are now calling for $90/ton. We saw a similar price decline in 2012 & the thing to watch then as it is now, is stock levels at China's ports as that will generally dictate if the price will stay lower or rebound. Why is this important for gold, it's not particularly, but its important for AUD gold producers as a sustained lower FE price will impact the AUD.

[Daytr]

Gold moved sharply higher overnight eclipsing $1350 only to pull back & then go higher again closing just under $1350. Recently I spoke about Aussie gold going to go much higher, well last night we saw a good example of that, with gold gaining & the AUD finally giving up some strength down around 1%. The net result is Aussie gold is back over A$1500. Yesterday I received an interesting note from NAB on why the Aussie was holding up so well & basically the view was that the slump in the Aussie economy was already priced in with its move from 1.05 to 90c. I have a different view & that is that the AUD or Aussie economy relative to its peers is a safe place to be, despite the weakening iron ore price & wind down of the mining boom. Australia has very little debt comparatively & has a reasonable level of employment & growth. However like the US equity markets, Australia (economically) isn't an island either & we saw that last night. Puerto Rico had a bond auction last night which caught a massive amount of interest as it offered a coupon of 8.7% apparently much lower than these would normally trade. Such is the interest to park money where there is a yield & risk is being discounted accordingly. Another way of looking at it, like the AUD there are risks but comparative to traditional areas of investments, those risks aren't deemed as bad. Typically a country's credit risk is measured by the differential in price of its bonds compared to say a US treasury or Eurobond. Well those spreads are narrowing significantly. Some major banks imo are underestimating the market's risk barometer when forecasting much lower levels for gold. Interestingly has anyone seen the same banks talk about the current levels of the equity markets & that there may be at elevated, or a level where money should be taken off the table? I doubt it very much. Meanwhile shares in banks involved in the gold fix scandal got hammered overnight as suits were brought against them. This in my view will get bigger similar to the Libor scandal, however may dwarf in comparison to their potential losses I expect to be announced in the coming months relating to the Emerging Markets.

[Bobcat.]

Yes Daytr - I'm also confident the price of Gold will continue to rise now that it has again tested 1350USD. If the Bears were once again in control, last week's sell off would have continued at a lower level than this to establish a downward trendline...but it hasn't. If it breaks through 1360USD this week, I will be waiting at least another week before selling any of my digger stocks.

$1400USD ($1575AUD) here we come.

There is too much growing unrest and uncertainty in world affairs to see big shorts arriving like they did last year. Crimea is about to have its referendum (with Ukrainian Fascists trying to destroy its citizens' passports so they can't vote) and the ousted President has gone on air to say that he has never left Ukraine and will fight on against Ukraine's illegitimate, 'bandit' new government; China is flexing its muscle in the South and East China seas; airliners are getting shot down at 30,000 ft; Banksters are being brought to account for years of Gold price fixing; JP Morgan and Deutsche Bank executives involved in derivatives & risk mgmt committing suicide; excessive Government & Corporate Debt; China construction and other industries at risk of imploding; etc, etc.

I'm no doomsday prophet but most of the above were not issues 3 months ago when Gold was floundering around 1200USD, and now they are (with not one of them easily resolved).

Discl: Still buying (with bids on WAF, OGC, SCI, SLR with a few others on Watch for an exaggerated dip).

[Daytr]

Possibly BC, I just put out a call on HC that we would see A$1562 this week. Someone flicked a switch in Asia as gold just spiked shortly after to $1358. A break of $1360 & the doubters which there have been a few of late none bigger than Goldmans & Morgan Stanley will be limbering up for that triple summersault backflip. I wonder just how many of their clients have been taking their advice & started shorting gold? It could be the catalyst for a push higher if they are forced to cover. When you look at gold right now & the discount that has been in Asia, up to $20/ounce which is massive & India knocked back performing the review on gold duty imports & yet gold is still rising. Something is up. If we saw both those two events in 2013 gold would have given up $50 or more.

[corran]

well $1360 has been broken today.... up to $1369 at the moment...

Silver also up strongly to $21.40 odd

should be a good day for our goldies tomorrow :-)

[Skol]

Solid uptrend in place. This weekend should be telling for Ukraine Crisis as referendum comes up and (apparently) Russian troops mass on the border. NZ Reserve Bank making a decision on OCR change as well today for you Aussie dollar watchers...

Gotta ask yourself why gold is going up. Ukraine? I doubt it, there's always wars and border skirmishes, even during the cold war gold did virtually nothing except in 1980. I'd say it's a case of moms and pops piling on board again thinking the worst is over, but one thing's for sure, precious metals always go down faster than they go up.

Daytr will publish his daily, long-winded explanation of why gold's going up, but actually it's very simple. The herd buying GLD and gold ETF's, GLD's up 9 tonnes in the last 12 days.

[corran]

Gotta ask yourself why gold is going up. Ukraine? I doubt it, there's always wars and border skirmishes, even during the cold war gold did virtually nothing except in 1980. I'd say it's a case of moms and pops piling on board again thinking the worst is over, but one thing's for sure, precious metals always go down faster than they go up.

Daytr will publish his daily, long-winded explanation of why gold's going up, but actually it's very simple. The herd buying GLD and gold ETF's, GLD's up 9 tonnes in the last 12 days.

Why is gold going up? I reckon (in no particular order):
- geo-political risks / instability
- physical demand from asia
- gold price fixing investigation plus the fallout from the libor fixing (I read the other day that some of the traders involved in libor fixing may face a 30 year jail sentance!)
- established trend up (the trend is your friend...)
- coming fallout from huge global debt burden caused by easy money policies (hasn't occured yet but is coming)
- rising production costs of gold
- institutional and retail investors heading back into gold

call me a conspiracy theorist nut if you want Skol but there are things going on that I have a bad feeling about... I think we could well see a crash much worse than 2008 coming soon. I hope I'm wrong.

[Daytr]

Gold smashed through technical resistance of $1360 overnight after bursting to life on the Asian open yesterday. Outside the US stock markets were down with Asian markets the hardest hit & European markets also impacted by market tensions created by Asian debt & liquidity risk, compounded by geopolitical concerns over the Emerging Markets. China, I'm not so concerned about as I think the Chinese government will act to support the economy if required. However the market clearly is worried & not only have we seen Western buying, the trend of late, but also Asian buying. With copper & iron ore hammered in the last week or two & gold rising in Asian time, one suspects loan collateral in the form of copper & iron ore is being swapped for gold. The Crimean referendum is this weekend & quite often you see the market buy the rumour & sell the fact & perhaps this could be the case for gold. However if the referendum goes as expected & Crimea votes to go with Russia, will the US/West just settle for that? In the unlikely event that the vote goes the other way, Russia I think certainly wont be sit on its hands. Either way this isn't over & as I have said on many occasions before its not all about the Ukraine, that's just the immediate focus. There are plenty of other Emerging Market nations that will be in the headlines for months to come. Gold should now target $1420 the previous highs & that will be its real test.

[Skol]

A word with the herd.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/9824365/Steer-clear-of-Bitcoin-and-bullion

[Daytr]

It was a fairly wild night for markets, however we are getting used to those, with wild gyrations becoming the norm in equity markets in various parts of the world except, for the US market which up until last night had been relatively unscathed, clinging on to record levels in the case of the S&P. That all changed last night & the S&P is now back trading below the previous highs it just eclipsed in the last week or two. Gold was whipped up & down to finally close up slightly, but did trade as high as $1375 at one point. Gold is now in a zone where it needs to earn its stripes to push on. It has had plenty of support from short covering, Chinese New Year & now tensions in the Ukraine & uncertainty over the Chinese economic outlook. By Monday we should know which way the vote went in Crimea & the market obviously anticipates are vote in favour of Russia. My feeling is gold could ease back a little next week until the situation there & reactions are assessed. However I do expect it only to be a dip as there are plenty of other issues out there that could raise their ugly head at any given moment. The US equity markets could also be under further pressure giving gold another boost. I also still don't rule out a change in import duty in India in the coming weeks or months. It is only a matter of time before we are testing the big level of $1420 imo. The Aussie is firmer after what can only be described as a stellar employment number with 47k net part time & full time jobs being created. To put this in perspective, per capita in US the same number would equate to around 750k jobs! I really do wonder if the number is actually correct, as it wouldn't be the first time an error has been published only to be corrected. This will be the last market wrap for a week or so as am heading off on a road trip. Happy trading all!. Cheers Daytr

[Daytr]

Just following the lead of the US market by looks. The market is running scared & the problem is the fear is being generated from several different directions.

[Bobcat.]

Any reason why the ASX is down 1.4% today? Miners again?

Last night, China reported its YoY Industrial Production at 8.6% against an expected 9.5% growth. That together with their YoY Fixed Asset Investment figure of 17.9% against 19.4% (forecast) sent a few jitters through the market, and as we know, Australia's resource sector is heavily reliant on China's growth.

[skid]

Holy Mac!
Just read that Walmart is the USAs largest employer at $9.79 hr--Its hard to be optimistic with stats like that.
Apparently the next tier up(basically getting you out of poverty in terms of work)have disappeared.
Unemployment rate goes down= more people working at Walmart folks.
want to know more about Walmarts?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jazb24Q2s94

[skid]

I wonder how bad things have to get before people start exiting the fringe (more risky)currency's like the kiwi $

[Skol]

Why is gold going up? I reckon (in no particular order):
- geo-political risks / instability
- physical demand from asia
- gold price fixing investigation plus the fallout from the libor fixing (I read the other day that some of the traders involved in libor fixing may face a 30 year jail sentance!)
- established trend up (the trend is your friend...)
- coming fallout from huge global debt burden caused by easy money policies (hasn't occured yet but is coming)
- rising production costs of gold
- institutional and retail investors heading back into gold

call me a conspiracy theorist nut if you want Skol but there are things going on that I have a bad feeling about... I think we could well see a crash much worse than 2008 coming soon. I hope I'm wrong.

I should list all the 'disasters' that were gonna send gold to the moon according to the gold bugs, but I'll list just a few off the top of my head.

Afghanistan
The BP oil rig fire in the gulf.
North Korea
Israel attacks Iran
Iran close the Straits of Hormuz
Fukushima
US debt
Fort Knox is empty
German gold stolen by the USA
Chinese gubbermint buying up the world's gold
Cyprus
Money printing
Spanish unemployment
Euro crash
USD crash
The EU falls apart
Greece
Italy

And what's happened? SFA. lol

[Skol]

Marc Faber says the "bull market is due for a big chop".

Faber is the ultimate contrarian warning, he forecast the USA would collapse economically by the end of 2013.

He makes his money from TV appearances, and if he's so damned smart why isn't he trading on his own account and worth billions?

[digger]

Marc Faber says the "bull market is due for a big chop".

Faber is the ultimate contrarian warning, he forecast the USA would collapse economically by the end of 2013.

He makes his money from TV appearances, and if he's so damned smart why isn't he trading on his own account and worth billions?

If the truth ever hurt this is it.

[corran]

I should list all the 'disasters' that were gonna send gold to the moon according to the gold bugs, but I'll list just a few off the top of my head.

Afghanistan
The BP oil rig fire in the gulf.
North Korea
Israel attacks Iran
Iran close the Straits of Hormuz
Fukushima
US debt
Fort Knox is empty
German gold stolen by the USA
Chinese gubbermint buying up the world's gold
Cyprus
Euro crash
USD crash
The EU falls apart
Greece
Italy

And what's happened? SFA. lol

well something is driving gold higher and I'm not complaining.... my portfolio of goldies is up about 50% this year

[Bobcat.]

Disappointing US economic data overnight (1:30 am NZT) provided more upward pressure on the price of Gold.

PPI (MoM) down 0.1% compared to a forecast of up 0.2%
PPI (YoY) up only 0.9% compared to a forecast of up 1.2%
Core PPI (MoM) (excludes food and energy) down 0.2% compared to a forecast of up 0.1%

My Gold stocks are also holding up nicely although earlier this week I did take profit on a few that spiked.

Discl: I'm also buying BEAR.asx since PM digger stocks are not immune to falling at the start of a Bear market (see what happened in 2008).

[corran]

thanks for posting the disclosure about bear.asx BC.... I wasn't aware it existed, going to research it today

[Skol]

As I suspected, GLD ETF up 11 tonnes in the last 5 days.

The retail sheep, the moms and pops.

[JBmurc]

Personal hope they stop Q.E completely don,t this would equal gold crashing
As it never did before when the other Q.E program's finished ,,,, but some how
The bear media always have a new reason why Gold is about to fall ,,,
The most bearish case I look for is US interest rates if they kick into gear I,d be more Bearish

[JBmurc]

Personal hope they stop Q.E completely don,t think this would equal gold crashing
As it never did before when the other Q.E program's finished ,,,, but some how
The bear media always have a new reason why Gold is about to fall ,,,
The most bearish case I look for is US interest rates if they kick into gear I,d be more Bearish

[Skol]

I doubt the Ukraine dispute will amount to much, gold fans probably hope it will but this is the cost to Russia.

http://www.bloomberg.com/infographics/2014-03-07/putin-debt-to-equity-hit-on-crimea-seizure.html

[Skol]

I don't believe in astrology, but I make notes occasionally to check on their accuracy. Here's what one says:
--------------------------------

Today is final positive day for precious metals and from here huge correction can occur so watch
closely. I would like to see three negative day below $1363 will confirm gold toward $1180.
--------------------------------

The sales of American Eagles have crashed to less than half this time last year.

[elZorro]

I don't believe in astrology, but I make notes occasionally to check on their accuracy. Here's what one says:
--------------------------------

Today is final positive day for precious metals and from here huge correction can occur so watch
closely. I would like to see three negative day below $1363 will confirm gold toward $1180.

I think you made that up Skol..good try :)

What is your opinion on the missing aircraft, if it flew for hours and sometimes at low altitude, why didn't passengers use their cellphones? Or was that a reason for heading out over water?

[digger]

[QUOTE=Skol;467879]I don't believe in astrology, but I make notes occasionally to check on their accuracy. Here's what one says:
--------------------------------

Today is final positive day for precious metals and from here huge correction can occur so watch

closely. I would like to see three negative day below $1363 will confirm gold toward $1180.

It would have shown more wisdom to leave this post with the first 5 words only. ------------- I do not believe in astrology

[tricha]

ii

Sorry Skol your cash is soon to turn to ash.
But your forecast of oil could come true for a while. The US still import 8,000,000 barrels of oil a day. Around a billion a day
If the dollar crashes, how will they then pay for their oil addiction?

A Sunday afternoon history lession.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-IemeM-Ado

Death Of The Dollar - Hidden Secrets Of Money Ep 3- Mike Maloney

[Skol]

I think you made that up Skol..good try :)

What is your opinion on the missing aircraft, if it flew for hours and sometimes at low altitude, why didn't passengers use their cellphones? Or was that a reason for heading out over water?

I didn't make it up. www.mahendraprophecy.com.

An inside job, I've known it for a while. The ACARS reporting system (comms between company and aircraft) operates any time the aircraft is powered so to disable it they've had to pull the circuit breaker.
Also has telemetric engine reporting and datalink. The datalink can be turned off by the pilot so can the ATC transponder. The transponder is only line-of-sight so cannot be interrogated more than about 250 miles by secondary surveillance radar. The aircraft will still paint on radar but other data like airline identification, airspeed and altitude will be unavailable.
I'm not sure about cellphone coverage from inside an aircraft and miles from land, but I believe the reception is unusable, it's also line of sight only. Cellphones don't have much power.

There are multiple systems available on a modern aircraft to let others know you have some kind of emergency.

The most amazing part is that the aircraft managed to fly over land miles away from its original track and not be challenged by military or civilian radar, or fighters sent up to intercept it. Heads will roll when it's all over.

It reminds me of Pearl Harbour, the jap aircraft painted on the basic radar of that day, but were written off as friendly bombers arriving from the mainland.

Lots of info has been withheld from the public, e.g. how much fuel did this aircraft have on board on departure, enough to fly to Beijing or much further?

There's also the question of the entertainment system, one channel generally show the position of the aircraft geographically.

[elZorro]

It's a sad story so far, a colleague used to work with the NZer (Weeks) lost on that flight. Sounds like the more southern flight path over water (http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/mh370-may-be-between-kazakhstan-and-south-indian-ocean-says-pm)is the most likely one of the two options.


http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/15/us-malaysiaairlines-flight-idUSBREA2701720140315

[Skol]

Death Of The Dollar - Hidden Secrets Of Money Ep 3- Mike Maloney

Mike Maloney. lol
The dude who prophesied gold would go to $15,000 and you got sucked in tricha.

[tricha]

Mike Maloney. lol
The dude who prophesied gold would go to $15,000 and you got sucked in tricha.

Sorry Skol your cash is soon to turn to ash. The sucker is going to be you .
But your forecast of oil could come true for a while. The US still import 8,000,000 barrels of oil a day. Around a billion a day
If the dollar crashes, how will they then pay for their oil addiction?

A Sunday afternoon history lession.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-IemeM-Ado (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-IemeM-Ado)

Death Of The Dollar - Hidden Secrets Of Money Ep 3- Mike Maloney

[Skol]

tricha,

You've been banging on for so long about the coming Armageddon I want you to read this book. If you can.

[tricha]

tricha,

You've been banging on for so long about the coming Armageddon I want you to read this book. If you can.

It looks like you Skol ;)

[Skol]

I didn't make it up. www.mahendraprophecy.com.

An inside job, I've known it for a while. The ACARS reporting system (comms between company and aircraft) operates any time the aircraft is powered so to disable it they've had to pull the circuit breaker.
Also has telemetric engine reporting and datalink. The datalink can be turned off by the pilot so can the ATC transponder. The transponder is only line-of-sight so cannot be interrogated more than about 250 miles by secondary surveillance radar. The aircraft will still paint on radar but other data like airline identification, airspeed and altitude will be unavailable.
I'm not sure about cellphone coverage from inside an aircraft and miles from land, but I believe the reception is unusable, it's also line of sight only. Cellphones don't have much power.

There are multiple systems available on a modern aircraft to let others know you have some kind of emergency.

The most amazing part is that the aircraft managed to fly over land miles away from its original track and not be challenged by military or civilian radar, or fighters sent up to intercept it. Heads will roll when it's all over.

It reminds me of Pearl Harbour, the jap aircraft painted on the basic radar of that day, but were written off as friendly bombers arriving from the mainland.

Lots of info has been withheld from the public, e.g. how much fuel did this aircraft have on board on departure, enough to fly to Beijing or much further?

There's also the question of the entertainment system, one channel generally show the position of the aircraft geographically.

From The BBC.

Where was the Malaysian air force in all this?' Malaysian military radar tracked an unidentified plane, now confirmed to be MH370, that flew right across the country's air space. But no action, it seems, was taken.

[clip]

Looks like Skol's moon prediction is coming true also, someone call Ken Ring! :P
(not meaning any offense to you Skol if that is unclear!)

[Skol]

Looks like Skol's moon prediction is coming true also, someone call Ken Ring! :P
(not meaning any offense to you Skol if that is unclear!)

Yep, the astrology oracle predicted that the S&P500 will be near 2000 by the end of the month. If it happens gold could be due for a significant decline.

[Skol]

I should list all the 'disasters' that were gonna send gold to the moon according to the gold bugs, but I'll list just a few off the top of my head.

Afghanistan
The BP oil rig fire in the gulf.
North Korea
Israel attacks Iran
Iran close the Straits of Hormuz
Fukushima
US debt
Fort Knox is empty
German gold stolen by the USA
Chinese gubbermint buying up the world's gold
Cyprus
Money printing
Spanish unemployment
Euro crash
USD crash
The EU falls apart
Greece
Italy

And what's happened? SFA. lol

Looks like the moms and pops got in just in time to get their fingers burned (again). I'll add the Ukraine crisis to my list of disasters and catastrophes that were gonna send gold to the moon.

[Bobcat.]

Profit taking on Gold and Silver was always going to happen this month. I like the analysis below which I read a couple of days ago, anticipating the same. Note the predicted support around 1343USD.

http://www.kitco.com/news/2014-03-17/Gold-Caught-Between-Bullish-Safe-Haven-Bid-and-Bearish-Fed-Worries.html

Tomorrow morning's FOMC projections and Yellen's speech will include the usual Fed manipulation of course, and that could well be the trigger for Gold to spike higher again (7 am NZT). Trading to it.

BC

[Skol]

Tomorrow morning's FOMC projections and Yellen's speech will include the usual Fed manipulation of course, and that could well be the trigger for Gold to spike higher again (7 am NZT). Trading to it.

What 'manipulation', they're cutting back on QE which goldbugs approve of, right?
The Fed couldn't give a rats ar*e about the price of gold, they'd die laughing if you went over there and told them that.

[Bobcat.]

What 'manipulation', they're cutting back on QE which goldbugs approve of, right?
The Fed couldn't give a rats ar*e about the price of gold, they'd die laughing if you went over there and told them that.

I'm not suggesting that the Fed manipulates the price of Gold (although they may well do - they are after all on record as stating that Gold is their enemy). Gold price manipulation is more the forte of the London Gold Fix Banks (via the Libor rate):

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/05/us-gold-fix-idUSBREA240R620140305

The manipulation done by the Fed is by talking markets up to keep confidence high, consumer spending up and the Equity bubble bubbling. Listen to Yellen's rhetoric tomorrow morning but make sure you read between the lines (if you want to profit from it, that is).

BC

[Skol]

The ruble won't be knocking the USD off its reserve currency perch anytime soon.

[JBmurc]

The ruble won't be knocking the USD off its reserve currency perch anytime soon.

I wish the NZD would do the same .. Be great for the exporters of Russia

[skid]

What 'manipulation', they're cutting back on QE which goldbugs approve of, right?
The Fed couldn't give a rats ar*e about the price of gold, they'd die laughing if you went over there and told them that.

Probibly right Skol--They've got their hands full just trying to manage the beast of the economy--gold just reacts to what happens.

[skid]

What 'manipulation', they're cutting back on QE which goldbugs approve of, right?
The Fed couldn't give a rats ar*e about the price of gold, they'd die laughing if you went over there and told them that.

Probibly right Skol--They've got their hands full just trying to manage the beast of the economy--gold just reacts to what happens.

[stevo1]

[QUOTE=Skol;468572]What 'manipulation', they're cutting back on QE which goldbugs approve of, right?
The Fed couldn't give a rats ar*e about the price of gold, they'd die laughing if you went over there and told them that.[/QUOT
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102
Executive Order 6102 is a United States presidential executive order signed on April 5, 1933, by President Franklin D. Roosevelt "forbidding the Hoarding of gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates within the continental United States". The order criminalized the possession of monetary gold by any individual, partnership, association or corporation.
Skol NEVER in the history of mankind has gold been deemed worthless by ANY civilized society.unlike this

Woman finds 100 MILLION lire in her safe - only to be told it's worth NOTHING because Italy has had the euro for more than a decade.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2583761/Woman-finds-100-MILLION-lira-safe-told-worth-NOTHING-Italy-euro-decade.html

or this inflationary flag £1 coin is to be scrapped: New version will be shaped like old threepenny bit
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2583878/1-coin-scrapped-New-version-shaped-like-old-threepenny-bit.html

Skol you CANNOT print more gold.Its gold or its not however we all knooooooow you dont get it.
PS I am likely to come last in the share comp so what the @#!% do I know

[Skol]

Ding dong......conspiracy theory alert!!!!!!!

FDR was not the Fed, and the gold standard was the main reason for the Great Depression.

[Skol]

Janet Yellen has implied interest rates will rise sooner rather than later, that's the death knell for gold.

[Skol]

Daytr seems to be MIA. He forecast $1420 by the beginning of April.

Maybe he's too busy fielding angry phone calls from his disciples, XGD down over 6%.

Astrologer 1
Goldbugs Nil

THe astrologer predicted that there would be 'a sudden sharp drop in precious metals' this week. Not bad. Says gold is moving back to $1180.
----------------
USD/EUR

[skid]

Astrologers predictions----Ding Dong!!!:)

[Skol]

Astrologers predictions----Ding Dong!!!:)

Well I've give the guy credit, he's done better than you guys and the goldbug predictions in general.

[Logen Ninefingers]

The situation in Crimea / Ukraine is far from done & dusted. The two main flashpoints now are 1/ Can Ukranian forces inside Crimea be repatriated back to Ukraine without any incidents breaking out between the 2 sides, which include russo-crimean militia , 2/ What will the russian ethnic people in Eastern Ukraine do as they see Crimea being rapidly merged into Russia. Will they revolt in some way against Ukraine, which in turn will get a response, which in turn will invite response from Russia in their support?

Additional to the above, we have an increasingly unstable geo-political situation with the USA suffering repeated blows to their prestige, with potential flash-points in North Korea, Syria, the South China Sea, the almost forgotten Al Qaeda, the Balkans. The USA will be looking to regain prestige, Putin will be looking to build Russia's prestige following the recent momentum he has gained. Look for proxy conflicts pitting the USA against Russia, as happened in the Cold War.

[Logen Ninefingers]

The United States could soon become a large-scale Spain or Greece, teetering on the edge of financial ruin.

That’s according to Donald Trump, who painted a very ugly picture of where this country is headed. Trump made the comments during a recent appearance on Fox News’ “On the Record with Greta Van Susteren.”

According to Trump, the United States is no longer a rich country. “When you’re not rich, you have to go out and borrow money. We’re borrowing from the Chinese and others. We’re up to $16 trillion in debt.”

He goes on to point out that the downgrade of U.S. debt is inevitable.

“We are going up to $16 trillion [in debt] very soon, and it’s going to be a lot higher than that before he gets finished. When you have [debt] in the $21-$22 trillion, you are talking about a downgrade no matter how you cut it.”

Ballooning debt and a credit downgrade aren’t Trump’s only worries for this country. He says that the official unemployment rate “isn’t a real number” and that the real figure is closer to 15 percent to 16 percent. He even mentioned that some believe the unemployment rate to be as high as 21 percent.

“Right now, frankly, the country isn’t doing well,” Trump added, “Recession may be a nice word.”

[Logen Ninefingers]

Those old comments of Trump's are still relevant today. The US national debt now stands at $17.5 trillion. Sooner or later the democrats and republicans will be having another show-down over debt, budget et al, and that means market uncertainty, and that will be good for gold.

[Skol]

Those old comments of Trump's are still relevant today. The US national debt now stands at $17.5 trillion. Sooner or later the democrats and republicans will be having another show-down over debt, budget et al, and that means market uncertainty, and that will be good for gold.

Old hat buddy, if you want debt, look no further than China.

The country that the goldbugs ludicrously allege was gonna bury the USA. China's in the sh*t, big time, companies are starting to default on their debt and there's a lot more on its way.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YW3h4wv8_ko

[Logen Ninefingers]

I just see a big, big world which is totally interconnected and therefore inherently unstable. Not one of USA, China, Japan, EU or the emerging markets is in robust health and heart, mostly far from it. This is a world full of flashpoints that can suddenly impact on the big picture. Whether is the gassing of women and children in Syria or a revolution in the Ukraine, localized events can quickly take on global dimensions, and both the forgoing events have seen the USA and Russia squaring off against each other. This is an unpredictable world, increasingly unstable, the USA is in decline while Russia and others are emboldened.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Old hat can become tomorrow's new hat, as history repeats. The debt ceiling show-downs crop up periodically, the proxy showdowns keep cropping up periodically.

[Skol]

Watch the youtube video about China and you'll change your mind. I wouldn't put 1 cent in Russia or China, the reserve currency for the duration of your lifetime will be the USD.

[Logen Ninefingers]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/eamonnfingleton/2014/02/23/a-lesson-in-propaganda-how-china-fooled-the-bbc-the-new-york-times-and-other-wishful-thinkers/

[elZorro]

Old hat buddy, if you want debt, look no further than China.

The country that the goldbugs ludicrously allege was gonna bury the USA. China's in the sh*t, big time, companies are starting to default on their debt and there's a lot more on its way.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YW3h4wv8_ko

Looks bad all right. Thanks for the post Skol.

All these economies are struggling, mostly not enough margins, or profit. And the profit comes from cheap energy at the end of the day. China has done well with cheap human energy in the form of low wages, but times change, wage rates are increasing steadily.

[Bobcat.]

I'm picking the start of a rebound tonight during NYMEX trading. IMO, Golds recently established upward trend-line now touching 1320USD is about to be confirmed. We have NOT seen the last of this year's bullish run, regardless of rumours (instigated by the Fed) of US interest rate rises coming sooner than earlier mooted (by the Fed). See the graph via the link below.

http://www.kitco.com/news/2014-03-17/Gold-Caught-Between-Bullish-Safe-Haven-Bid-and-Bearish-Fed-Worries.html

[Bobcat.]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/eamonnfingleton/2014/02/23/a-lesson-in-propaganda-how-china-fooled-the-bbc-the-new-york-times-and-other-wishful-thinkers/

Great article, LN - see also here:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/eamonnfingleton/2014/02/26/the-mystery-of-chinas-growth-five-reasons-why-americans-will-never-understand-it/

Yes, it's true that the Chinese are masters at propaganda and the war-time strategic art of deceit:

"When you are weak, make out that you are strong; and when you are strong, make out that you are weak."

Are we being duped by the Chinese telling us what we want to believe? And the enemy within is perhaps our gullibility, fuelled by the folly of our pride in loosely regulated capitalism. Why else would we be so reluctant to believe that Asia's highly regulated nations could ever sustain out-performing Western economies?

[bermuda]

Great article, LN - see also here:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/eamonnfingleton/2014/02/26/the-mystery-of-chinas-growth-five-reasons-why-americans-will-never-understand-it/

Yes, it's true that the Chinese are masters at propaganda and the war-time strategic art of deceit:

"When you are weak, make out that you are strong; and when you are strong, make out that you are weak."

Are we being duped by the Chinese telling us what we want to believe? And the enemy within is perhaps our gullibility, fuelled by the folly of our pride in loosely regulated capitalism. Why else would we be so reluctant to believe that Asia's highly regulated nations could ever sustain out-performing Western economies?

Bobcat,
The Chinese will rule the world. At the moment they lack the confidence of the Americans. That is changing rapidly.
A brilliant speech by Fraser tonight.

[Bobcat.]

Fraser who?

[Skol]

Bobcat,
The Chinese will rule the world. At the moment they lack the confidence of the Americans. That is changing rapidly.
A brilliant speech by Fraser tonight.

That's a fantasy. China's got so many problems they'll never rule the world, in fact it's more than likely China will split up the way the former Soviet Union and Yugoslavia did.

Why do you think so many Chinese are abandoning ship and settling in NZ, Aust, and the USA? If you want to be a big noter in China you tell the neighbours you own a house in San Francisco.

That's why they buy gold. To get their money the hell out of China, there's very strict currency regulations.

The XGD has bounced off the 200 day MA which confirms gold stocks are in a long-term decline and US American Eagle sales are a fraction of what they were this time last year.

[Bobcat.]

BC, as I have said many times, it doesn't matter what you think (and might know) is right, it's the market and headlines that are the only thing moving PoG.

Take off the rational hat and play with the irrational one for a bit, it will serve you you much better here, especially with Amerikans moving the market ;)

POG bounced off 1320 to close at 1328USD.

Why would you think that others' opinions are any more or less important than your own, Moosie? If you opened the link in my last post you would've seen support for the PoG at this price. It doesn't pay to ignore charts and technical analysis. They do I admit have limited value in that it's OK to drive glancing up at the rear-view mirror but not to focus on it, otherwise before you know it, you'll miss the next bend and be off the road.

Safe, defensive and intelligent driving looks forward and sideways a lot more than it looks backward...and yes, that does require fundamental market analysis and a good read of the rhetoric and its influence on price but a Contrarian view in that regard can be more advantageous than being swept up by various Analysts' popular vote.

IMO, it's a good time to buy back into Aussie gold stocks today (if you didn't already yesterday afternoon).

BC

[pietrade]

And just to add to the mix......Is the NSA manipulating the stock market? http://nomorefakenews.com/

[skid]

Watch the youtube video about China and you'll change your mind. I wouldn't put 1 cent in Russia or China, the reserve currency for the duration of your lifetime will be the USD.

Skol,I dont ever remember hearing you say anything bad about the USA.

Since we are all conspiracy theorists according to you, heres one for you--Are you getting paid by the US govt to say these things?
You seem to have an agenda.


STOP PRESS----New Zealand has just worked out a deal where the $KIWI is now included in a list of currencies that can trade with the Chinese without first being converted into $US (the international currency)
The Americans will not be happy--one small step closer to avoiding the $US.

[skid]

Watch the youtube video about China and you'll change your mind. I wouldn't put 1 cent in Russia or China, the reserve currency for the duration of your lifetime will be the USD.

Skol,I dont ever remember hearing you say anything bad about the USA.

Since we are all conspiracy theorists according to you, heres one for you--Are you getting paid by the US govt to say these things?
You seem to have an agenda.


STOP PRESS----New Zealand has just worked out a deal where the $KIWI is now included in a list of currencies that can trade with the Chinese without first being converted into $US (the international currency)
The Americans will not be happy--one small step closer to avoiding the $US.

[Skol]

Skid,

I'm not saying the USA is perfect, I'm saying China or Russia are places loaded with corruption, pollution, and they're one-party states. Read the paper today about all the dead pigs found in the river in China. Last year there were 16,000 dead pigs in the river. No thanks.

You can avoid the USA but I won't be I have some funds there, China and Russia aren't going anywhere, the US economy is on the verge of a boom IMO, and I'd like to cash in on it. Check out the US stockmarkets over the past 5 years, there hasn't been a better investment.
Last 5 years the S&P500 (excluding dividends) is up 130%, gold's up 40%

Subsequently, gold will be useful as an anchor, I spend a lot of time in the USA, the picture the goldbugs paint of the USA crashing and burning is nothing but utter crap. I don't see queues of people lining up to emigrate to Russia or China, do you? They're queueing up to get out and buy houses in SFO or LON.

The USD's on the way up while the Russian and Chinese currencies are tanking. China will take over the world.lol. Pull the other one buddy.

The goldbugs have been telling us all for years about the debt-fuelled Armageddon just around the corner, peak oil, the poverty, war, China taking over the world and all the other catastrophes that were gonna send gold to the moon. Consequently, no one takes them seriously and they're the objects of ridicule and humour.

Yeah, I'm a paid spook working for the CIA and JP Morgan.

Hahaha

[stevo1]

China will take over the world.lol. Pull the other one buddy.
Yeah, I'm a paid spook working for the CIA and JP Morgan.

Hahaha

http://rt.com/news/chinese-jet-cyber-espionage-stolen-718/
“The viciousness, and just the volume of attacks, not only by the Chinese but Russians and others trying to get the blueprints of our most sensitive material is just breathtaking – and they’re getting better,” Rep. Mike Rogers, chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, told CNN.

“It costs billions and billions of dollars extra to try to make sure that we’re staying ahead of our adversaries with technology. When they steal it, they leap ahead. That means we have to invest more, and change that technology. It is a serious problem,” he said

Discount China and their ability to move "things "around be it gold or anything else at you peril

[Skol]

China will take over the world.lol. Pull the other one buddy.
Yeah, I'm a paid spook working for the CIA and JP Morgan.

Hahaha

http://rt.com/news/chinese-jet-cyber-espionage-stolen-718/
“The viciousness, and just the volume of attacks, not only by the Chinese but Russians and others trying to get the blueprints of our most sensitive material is just breathtaking – and they’re getting better,” Rep. Mike Rogers, chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, told CNN.

“It costs billions and billions of dollars extra to try to make sure that we’re staying ahead of our adversaries with technology. When they steal it, they leap ahead. That means we have to invest more, and change that technology. It is a serious problem,” he said

Discount China and their ability to move "things "around be it gold or anything else at you peril

That's because the Russians and Chinese don't invent, they spy and steal. Americans invent, Asians copy, you won't need to be Albert Einstein to work out who's going to win in the end.

It's always been the same, Japs copied British machine guns, the Soviet Union got the atomic bomb and US aircraft plans because of traitors and captured aircraft, history reeks of it.

The USA is on its way to an economic and energy boom, Russia and China are gonna suck the hind tit. China still hasn't got an aircraft carrier and the USA built one every 2 weeks in WW2 with a little over half the population it has now. What a joke, you guys are great fun though.

[skid]

[QUOTE=Skol;469071]Skid,

I'm not saying the USA is perfect, I'm saying China or Russia are places loaded with corruption, pollution, and they're one-party states. Read the paper today about all the dead pigs found in the river in China. Last year there were 16,000 dead pigs in the river. No thanks.

You can avoid the USA but I won't be I have some funds there, China and Russia aren't going anywhere, the US economy is on the verge of a boom IMO, and I'd like to cash in on it. Check out the US stockmarkets over the past 5 years, there hasn't been a better investment.
Last 5 years the S&P500 (excluding dividends) is up 130%, gold's up 40%

Subsequently, gold will be useful as an anchor, I spend a lot of time in the USA, the picture the goldbugs paint of the USA crashing and burning is nothing but utter crap. I don't see queues of people lining up to emigrate to Russia or China, do you? They're queueing up to get out and buy houses in SFO or LON.

The USD's on the way up while the Russian and Chinese currencies are tanking. China will take over the world.lol. Pull the other one buddy.

The goldbugs have been telling us all for years about the debt-fuelled Armageddon just around the corner, peak oil, the poverty, war, China taking over the world and all the other catastrophes that were gonna send gold to the moon. Consequently, no one takes them seriously and they're the objects of ridicule and humour.

Yeah, I'm a paid spook working for the CIA and JP Morgan.

Hahaha[/QUOTE

************************************************** *****************************
Well -I said it was a Conspiracy Theory :):)

[skid]

[QUOTE=Skol;469134]That's because the Russians and Chinese don't invent, they spy and steal. Americans invent, Asians copy, you won't need to be Albert Einstein to work out who's going to win in the end.

It's always been the same, Japs copied British machine guns, the Soviet Union got the atomic bomb and US aircraft plans because of traitors and captured aircraft, history reeks of it.

************************************************** ****************************

I think you may be in danger of looking around you and seeing what things appear to be in the present(which may well be an illusion),but failing to see what may well happen in the future.
I could go out and borrow a bunch of money and buy a flash car-clothes-etc and that may well impress you and others,but it just means Im stupid for borrowing beyond my means.
You may be forgetting that Japan started out copying the west and now look where they are (would you buy a Ford?)
And Korea copies Japan and may well pass them up in both cars and electronics (and have already passed up the west) I would certainly take a Samsung over a, well..whatever they produce in the USA(if anything)
China is at a point on a cycle just like Japan and Korea were. my bet is that they will pass up the west.
They may be a one party country,and it wouldnt be my cup of tea to live there,but economically they are free of the bureaucratic limitations of countries like the States whose leaders often times make stupid decisions that are more aimed at getting reelected than being economically intelligent.
I think your a bit ''old school'' if you write China off.
I think theres a chance the US could crash,but more likely it will be a slow strangulation--
Already their work force has shifted more towards a ''walmart style'' system that lacks innovation (with of course some exceptions)
They are heading in the wrong direction IMO

They are still good at making weapons though,which is a worry since that may well be their only way to continue the party, economically--by taking from someone else

[Skol]

China is a place western countries go to build things cheap, everything's made in China. China is a place that's going to implode, it'll take a little time, and with some major companies defaulting on their debt, punters are going to start getting nervous. Many companies are already moving operations out of China back to the USA. China is seriously corrupt.

Look what happened to Japan, got caught in a massive bubble in the early '90's and still hasn't recovered, but I've got a lot of faith in the Japanese, I've had money there for about 13 years via a mutual fund. It's clean, a democracy, they've got a serious work ethic, they're innovative and it's not made up of multiple nationalities.

In ranking of countries of ease of doing business the USA is No 4, China is No.96 behind places like Albania and Zambia.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ease_of_doing_business_index

There are hundreds of riots in China, every day, but we don't get to hear about them because it's secret. China spends $125b p.a on riot gear. In 2010 there were 180,000 riots and mass protests.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Goldman Sachs continue their pathetic, shrill, increasingly 'boy who cried wolf' attack on gold:

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/03/21/goldman-sachs-golds-rally-wont-last/

At the same time, reacting to recent well-publicised comments by Skol, they contradict his recent claims by stating that China is going great guns and will only go from strength to strength from here:

Three factors — weather-impacted U.S. economic activity, Chinese credit concerns and Ukraine tensions–have played a role in pushing gold prices higher in 2014. But Goldman sees these factors diminishing in the near future, which will prompt gold to tumble off current levels.

“While further escalation in tensions could support gold prices, we expect a sequential acceleration in both U.S. and Chinese activity, and hence for gold prices to decline, although it may take several weeks to lift uncertainty around this acceleration,” Damien Courvalin, an analyst at Goldman, wrote to clients.

[Skol]

Yeah, QE was unstoppable according to the goldbugs, Marc Faber said there would be "QE56".

This is why chinese are buying gold, to circumvent currency regulations.

http://www.bbc.com/capital/story/20140321-expat-exodus-from-beijing

China will take over the world. lol

They'll die from air, water and heavy metal pollution first.

[Logen Ninefingers]

http://www.smh.com.au/business/miners-bet-on-golden-future-20140321-358wu.html

[winner69]

Hows that gold guru Jim Sinclair's prediction of $50,000 golf by 2020 going?

I see Jim's name pops up quite often on this thread

[Skol]

If the 1980 gold rout repeats itself gold will eventually fall to about $655.

[Bobcat.]

There is way too much growing discontent with Fiat currencies to see Gold lose its lustre. It's bounced off 1320USD which confirms (for now) the trend-line formed off its double bottom of $1180 three months ago. The ongoing investigations and law-suits to do with gold price fixing have also yet to pan out. This will reduce the amount of shorting by banks and other companies now feeling more exposed to related law suits.

I'm buying, not selling.

The only concern I have is that typically as Equity markets suffer a major correction, the US dollar strengthens as money flows into hard currency (cash). That typically drops the price of Gold. However, what used to be typical in monetary and fiscal economics has of late (thanks partially to the Fed's intrusions) been quite topsy turvy. And so nonetheless, I'm picking that the price of gold will now continue to rise, and am trading accordingly.

BC

[KiwiGreen]

Lots of discussion here on the US economy breaking down vs the Chinese economy breaking down. These are the two largest in the world and so inevitably interconnected with each other and the rest of the world. If one economy or stockmarket plummets, the other will do the same - and the rest of the world will follow suit. Both will undoubtedly then rebuild.

At this point in time the US stockmarkets are certainly overbought by all indicators. The economy itself however isn't so shaky. Given most experts believe we are in a 17 year cyclical bear market, everything points to a downturn in the equities market sometime soon (http://www.forbes.com/sites/sharding/2013/11/15/why-its-still-only-a-cyclical-bull-market-within-the-long-term-secular-bear/)

However this time I can't imagine it will reach so far into everyone's lives as it did when when combined with the housing bubble in 2007/8. The 'end of the world' fear was dramatic back then, this time the fear will be much more contained within the stockmarkets which have risen largely on money printing and very low interest leverage.

I feel equities certainly need the correction to be able to finish this bear market and begin a nice long bull market.

One argument against stock market collapse is a slowdown that allows P/E ratios, GDP etc to catch up. Nice idea, but everyone should now know that is impossible in practice. Internet, media and general information sharing means that things now happen very quickly and get over-exaggerated. If markets slow it only takes a little bit of fear to start, spread and then snowball until the sky is falling!

I am not invested in gold in any way.

[Logen Ninefingers]

I feel a lot of the argument around gold seems to focus on attacking the metal itself as well as 'gold bug's, whereas this is about 2 schools of thought: one is that the USA and large banks can very tightly control currencies, free markets, the local and global economies, and world events which give rise to conflict. The other is that they can't: that these events are too large and unpredictable to be controlled.

[Skol]

Crimea's off the front page, but Putin's gonna get what's coming to him, it's going to be very, very expensive.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-23/russia-staring-at-recession-on-sanctions-that-could-get-tougher.html

Russia might be parting with some of its gold to shore up the finances.

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2014/0303/507907-russia-interest-rate/

[Logen Ninefingers]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-24/china-manufacturing-gauge-unexpectedly-falls-as-slowdown-deepens.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-23/germany-inc-on-edge-as-eu-steps-up-response-to-crimea.html
http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/03/19/gold-india-imports-banks-idINDEEA2I08320140319

[Hoop]

Coppock indicator is known as a reliable indicator for the DOW in finding the start of a new Bull market cycle...Its reliability is lessened in other markets...who knows with Gold as the records I have doesn't chart back far enough to get historical confirmation..however I am observing a faint upturn off the bottom for the Coppock indicator....Is it reliable??? maybe ..but I wouldn't bet my life on it...I find a good confirmation is the MA crossover..If this happens within the next month or two then the chances of a new bull calf being born is looking very good indeed..

Click here for the DOW thread where there is more explanation chartwise (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?6114-Dow/page60)

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/gold24032014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/gold24032014.png.html)

[Logen Ninefingers]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11225845

.....showed a slide in the pace of US manufacturing growth, while China's manufacturing also provided cause for concern.

[Bobcat.]

Yes, the fall to 1320USD from 1390USD last week was too fast to bounce nicely from there, but bounce it soon will, IMO. There is way too much fear and uncertainty about fiat currencies holding their value, as well as serious scrutiny into gold price fixing for it not to.

Having said that, until a new level of price support is confirmed (later this week I expect), I'll stay weighted more towards explorers rather than poorly/un-hedged, price-sensitive producers such as TRY, PRU, RSG, etc.

OGC (which I sold last month) has came a long way off last week's highs to trade this morning on the nzx at $2.65. At that price, it's now back on my watch list, and will look to buy into it again soon...especially if it breaks through $2.50AUD.

[Skol]

Where's Daytr?

Gold has to go up $110 to meet his forecast of $1420 by the end of the month.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Janet Yellen stopped gold in it's tracks with words. Meanwhile, the Fed is still buying bonds at the rate of USD 55 billion a month.

Ok, so's she's gone early and called it: interest rate rises in mid 2015. So its words today, and now we all sit and wait for over 12 months as the hard facts and data roll in. And that's where it gets really interesting. Because it's all very well to spout some words and have a temporary effect now, but much more difficult to have events play out the way the Fed wants them to.

Who else has gone early and called it now? The US economy is booming(?) The global economy is booming(?)
There's a lot of water to pass under the bridge yet. Every month that the taper continues the whole economy has to come off life support and keep beating under it's own power, eventual interest rate rises mean eventual bigger interest payments on debt. March 2015 is the next debt ceiling showdown. There is a long, long way to go to get out of these woods.

[Logen Ninefingers]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/9865527/US-heading-for-a-crash-investor-says

[Skol]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/9865527/US-heading-for-a-crash-investor-says

Well you know what to do, get stuck in and buy gold, you can't possibly go wrong, right?

[Bobcat.]

Well you know what to do, get stuck in and buy gold, you can't possibly go wrong, right?

You could do worse, Skol. I've also been buying BEAR.asx this past week...and will continue to do so as US Equity markets demonstrate more weakening. Traditionally, they fall away during May, but I sense that it could happen sooner this year.

I bought into GRY yesterday and have some cash ready to buy into OGC, TRY, RSG and PRU should they dip again tomorrow. Buying into dips around the 1300USD mark is not foolish. The risk/reward ratio is getting more attractive by the day. I'm picking a lift this week -- perhaps tonight (a little), but the bigger one is more likely to be Thursday night...IMO. I like what I'm seeing. Trading to it.

BC

[Logen Ninefingers]

Isn't this just fascinating stuff though? And now the finishing line is in sight - tapering will end and interest rate rises mid 2015. That's the plan anyway, it's all defined now. What twists and turns there will be between now and then. Feels like a long flight into the unknown future.

-----------------

SPDR Gold Trust, the world`s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings rose 0.55 percent to 821.47 tonnes on Monday from 816.97 tonnes on Friday.
In terms of ounces, the holdings are at their highest since December.

http://zeenews.india.com/business/bullion/bullion-news/gold-price-rebounds-from-one-month-low_96772.html

[clip]

Is the general gist of bear.asx that as the indices/markets in general go down, the SP of bear goes up BC?

[Bobcat.]

Is the general gist of bear.asx that as the indices/markets in general go down, the SP of bear goes up BC?

Yes, and the opposite of course is also true. Have a look at its sp for the past 18 months - down from $25 to $18.

IMO, it's better than cashing up.

[Skol]

http://www.mining.com/this-is-the-scariest-gold-price-chart-youll-see-today-21675/

[Bobcat.]

In that article, Skol, there are three assumptions made, the validity of which which I question:

1. That Fed monetary policy is normalising. In rhetoric only IMO. The fact is that QE1 and QE2 were tapered in one shot to zero. QE3 however, which was much bigger, is being tapered in relatively small discrete chunks, and it's not certain when if ever the Fed will reduce it to zero.

2. They assume that 'normalisation' can be achieved without first experiencing a severe Equities market correction to compensate for the Fed's artificial props over the past 6 years. Earlier financial meltdowns recovered a lot faster with no Fed manipulation. Capital spending has not increased substantially as a result of the Fed's 'stimulus' programme, in spite of their promises to the contrary, and the US economy is not in full swing recovery. Most banksters it would seem have funnelled the Fed handouts (yes, buying toxic assets from the banks is effectively a handout) into highly speculative, emerging market investments rather than into US business.

3. Real interest rates may be gradually rising but the American economy (and to a lesser extent UK and other economies) are getting very addicted to cheap credit and its associated debt. Rising interest rates will be the death knell for anyone with massive debt. They will be avoided if at all possible.

IMO, as Bankster greed grows the derivatives bubble even bigger, and government & corporate debt balloons further, the global financial markets are nearing a precipice, and once they start to teeter, Gold will be regarded (as evidenced historically) as one safe haven into which money will quickly flow. And it will not be the ETFs with dubious levels of physical bullion backing that will benefit. Gold diggers' stock values will rocket as it becomes obvious just how little bullion reserves Western Central banks and ETF 'Trusts' are holding...and just how much has over the past couple of years been bought by China, Russia and other non-Western economies.

To also add to this demand for Gold, it looks like India may soon cut its Import Duty on Gold to curb smuggling:

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2014-03-21/news/48438192_1_gold-smuggling-gold-imports-eastern-region-gems

More upside for this precious metal than downside IMO.

Aside from these fundamental drivers, charting TA tells me that an imminent bounce-back to at least $1350USD is not far off.


BC

[Skol]

Bobcat,

1. Monetary policy is normalising and the mayhem the goldbugs predicted hasn't happened nor will it.

2. The US and the world is recovering from one of the worst debt-fuelled crises in history, a lesson for everyone. Many went broke, greed does that to people, but now everyone's a little wiser and the US govt and public indebtedness has reduced accordingly. The university-educated idiots at Lehmans geared up their assets 35 times. Just goes to show that because you've got a degree you're not necessarily smart.

3. Everyone that can read knows that higher interest rates are on their way, if they haven't made the necessary preparations then it's bad news for them.

The great precipice you're referring to is in your mind, it's not going to happen, that's why gold is falling and stockmarkets are rising.
I'm smelling goldbug conspiracy theory.

[JBmurc]

Buying nearly 1/10th the SPDR Gold holdings in a month? Nah, doesn't matter at all!

http://www.kitco.com/news/2014-03-25/Lack-Of-Gold-Rally-On-Iraq-Purchase-News-Horrible-Sign-Analysts.html

Not all analysts viewed the developments bearishly. Phil Flynn, senior market analyst with Price Futures Group, said the Iraqi gold news will be a longer-term supportive feature for the market even if the news did not prompt an immediate sharp surge higher. For the near term, he added, the market seems more focused on the future of U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy.

“It seems that central-bank (gold-buying) activity is secondary in the minds of a lot of traders,” Flynn said. “But it was definitely an eye-opening purchase. It shows you that Iraq is trying to diversify their economy away from (U.S.) dollars, which they’ve had quite a few of because of their booming oil production.”

[Hoop]

the ol sayings goes....
One sparrow doesn't make a summer
All great things have small beginnings.
who do you believe..
Well its now 2 sparrows I've seen in the last 3 days...still a coincidence??


Since my post ...I've dredged the internet media and found nothing much regarding the uptick of Gold's Coppock indicator [see my chart 24th March (3 days ago) (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?7449-Gold/page471)] Not surprising....as the herd is currently pessimistic and fretting over this current short term weakness stuff...

I charted the gold chart today using a shorter term daily period (my previous chart was in a rarely used month period) ...OK....the short term looks threatening and to make things look worse the gold price has no support and resistance lines around the 1300 apart from the obvious psychological one....so its possible it will fall to where there are supports 1250 maybe?
.....However....
In amongst the weakness on the chart is a rare Golden Cross which confirmed itself yesterday (25th March)...This has been documented in the back pages of the internet media away from the deafening bear noises these last couple of days as various gold exchanges have one by one experienced this rare phenomenon ..

...although I think some writers get carried away with enthusiasm when it comes to Golden Crosses (when the 50 day Moving Average crosses above the 200 day Moving Average) they all think its bullish and the market will instantly take off upwards from here...unfortunately it isn't the case, it is the start of a bull /bear fight..When a golden cross appears after a long period of a bear downtrend it is a bullish sign that a few buyers are gaining interest once again..that's good news, the bad news is it will take time for the majority of the bearish herd to realise that a cyclic change is actually happening...how long??..who knows depends on the amount of crosses (death and golden) to come..but for the quick footed and the more risk takers 1200 is looking like a cyclic bottom and getting in on this current weakness is a blessing in disguise as it is offering a second chance to get in close to the bottom...

What happens if against the odds happens and it ends up being a trap and 1200 isn't the bottom ...the quick footed investor will get stopped out for a small loss and wait for the next round bullish signals to appear..simple.

DISC:...I have gold related stocks (hold/accumulating)

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/gold26032014-1.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/gold26032014-1.png.html)

[Logen Ninefingers]

http://www.smh.com.au/business/china-pushing-to-be-worlds-banker-20140323-35bko.html

http://www.smh.com.au/business/china/china-poised-to-ramp-up-its-stimulus-policies-20140326-35hwq.html

[stevo1]

Well you know what to do, get stuck in and buy gold, you can't possibly go wrong, right?

Why dont you short gold?

[peat]

Starting to buy silver again < $20
note that retracement of previous up movement is 78%

[Skol]

Why dont you short gold?

I do, in general stocks and gold move in opposite directions, worked fine for the last few years, why change it?

[Skol]

Not a pretty sight if you own gold. Lower highs and lower lows. If it gets to $1180, which it probably will, it'll be:
Astrologer 2
Goldbugs Nil

[Hoop]

Starting to buy silver again < $20
note that retracement of previous up movement is 78%

Yep nearly at the 78.6% resistance point.....good entry point Peat.

Gold dropped through to 1290 (50% Fib R 1288) as I type.. short term downtrend and no technical support at 1300 ... a sub 1300 was expected.

The area I'm looking at is the 1250 area...There is a 61.8% Fib Retracement at 1260ish..This resistance area matches up with that fuzzy 1250 S&R zone.....

Hmmm It's the "Golden Ratio" area...Has a nice ring (pun):p to it...eh Peat

[Bobcat.]

Hope you didn't buy too much OGC BC (althoygh the hedge should minimise the fall...) ;)

OGC is holding up OK.

I also bought some TRY which I see in Toronto was this morning on a trading halt.

RSG has just announced a 50% increase in Ore reserves from its pre-feasibility study which should lift its price today.

SLR I'm expecting to hold above 40c given that 30% of its lower grade sales are hedged above $1500AUD.

But yes my other gold digger and explorer holdings may continue to slide a bit, for now.

Typically, before a FOMC meeting, precious metal stock price movements are bullish, and then for a week or two afterward, they are bearish. The mere mention of an interest rate rise in 2015 and some subsequent positive US economic data was enough to drag down gold and silver prices, which I believe will be short lived.

Last December, gold entered a consolidation phase. Watch it lift over the next few days. This week's slide is not a medium term trend reversal, just part of a more general consolidation...IMO.

BC

[Daytr]

Hi All, back after a two week road trip (including paddling the Whanganui) & look what happens you let gold drop a hundred bucks! LOL. Still catching up on the market & the wheres & why fors but at a glance it looks like to me gold wants to test $1260. This appears a reasonable support level but if that breaks its pretty much $1200 & then $1180 both look like very big support levels, so if it gets that low that should be the end of the rot. After 2 weeks with little visibility on what's been going on, I see US stock markets are basically unchanged & it appears currencies have been the main driver? I saw reference to gold missing my 'prediction' of $1420. If a certain poster actually read what I wrote on here & HC they would know I actually said that when gold was around $1360/70 area, it had to earn its stripes & that the first $150 of the rally were the easiest & that gold should target $1420 as the next big test, if it was to move forward into a bull market & not just a correction. Well it fell $30 short of that target which isn't a good look, however in saying that, what counts now is where it settles in this sharp pull back. Obviously the higher the better for gold to have a more positive outlook. What's people's views on the speculative position on COMEX right now? The longs had built quite a position & I assume a lot of them have cleared out so it will depend on how they are positioned right now to gold's short term future direction. As I get more up to speed I will post more thoughts, but it would be great to hear what people think right now & why.


Happy Friday! Cheers Daytr

[Bobcat.]

Welcome back, Daytr. I trust your paddle trip was paid for in advance -- now is not the time to cash up your gold stocks!

Iraq's central bank declared that they purchased a lot of gold Jan through March ($USD1.56 billion) which analysts are saying is the largest by any nation for three years and which, together with the Ukraine/Crimea conflict, partly explains this year's rise in the price of Gold to 1390USD.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-25/iraq-buys-1-56-bln-of-gold-biggest-purchase-in-3-years.html

Also, Yellen last week hinted at the US/Fed raising its interest rate a bit earlier than envisaged. This has dragged down the PoG for the past week as pundits revise their expectations.

I'm still confident in a decent bounce-back next week (it won't take much to trigger one) but I'm being more selective with my holdings, and so have let a couple go (ASL, RXL and ALK).

OGC, RSG and TRY have dropped to where I've bought a few yesterday but many diggers have some way to go yet before they trigger a buy signal. SLR is finding good support above 40c, and I continue to hold (with another small parcel bought yesterday at 42c). Companies like SLR and OGC with suitable hedging are attractive at these prices.

RMX as well? I know that earlier you were keen on this stock, and I bought a few on a whim. I was tempted to pick up a bundle at 1.3c today but really don't know enough about the company to justify averaging down. Researching it a bit more over the weekend.

[Daytr]

Cheers BC, I traded out of RMX before I left, might have another look at them but will need to do some more research. SLR has been tough, but I can't see it going too much lower unless gold really breaks down & yeah I saw they put a small hedge in place. I still like RSG & really has performed better as a trading stock than SLR imo. Still holding SOC although I did decrease my position substantially which I am now pleased about. There has been a dearth of communication from the management so its a real test of patience that one. Not sure we are at the bottom of this current selloff yet, but as you know I'm still getting up to speed.

[Skol]

The astrologer looks to be on to it, says gold down $100 on no major headlines. Says if it breaks $1280, look for $1168.

Also says:
"We are not recommending any buying in metal stocks as these stocks may fall hard."

[Skol]

Dunno if you read it but in the Herald yesterday there was an article saying the US economy is on the brink of its best performance for 10 years.

[Skol]

Tried to bring it up without result. Might have a copyright on it. From AP in Saturday's Herald by Martin Crutsinger.

"American economy may be poised for a breakout year and the strongest annual growth in a decade."

[Skol]

I've noticed it before, but more recently there seems to be more of the God Squad attracted to gold forums.

Anyone know why this is?

[tricha]

Gold is going to go through the roof. Skol your cash is about to be come ASH.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KXGPzDq45gM

Jim Sinclair: Russia Can Collapse US Economy, Gold Update

[corran]

Link please? I can believe we are on the brink of a 5-10 year long worldwide boom though as the USA and Eurozone are only starting their recoveries. Hopefully 3D printing turns out to be the revvolution everyone says it will be in order to drive it all home :)

I think any recovery by US or eurozone countries is pretty fledgling at the moment. A 5-10 year worldwide boom would be great but I think it's pretty optimistic. US and eurozone economies are so dependent on consumer spending and I'd imagine that rising interest rates would put a brake on spending by debt laden consumers. Plus even with the US 'energy miracle' oil is still over $100 a barrel. I think any worldwide boom needs cheap(er) oil to fuel it. That doesn't look like it's going to happen.

[peat]

Hmmm It's the "Golden Ratio" area...Has a nice ring (pun):p to it...eh Peat

Golden ratio is the 61.8% fib :p

but yeh you did say area...

good trading

[Skol]

tricha,

It's a proven fact that Jim Sinclair is an idiot, he forecast $3000-$5000 gold by June 2011. You both keep crying wolf, and you've both been 100% wrong, and you've been wrong about peak oil as well. Shame.

[Skol]

I can't help thinking that some of these 'analysts' need to be jailed. I suppose it's not a crime to peddle this nonsense, and I can tell from some of the posts on gold forums that some of the goldbugs aren't exactly Albert Einstein.

I've been told by our resident gold 'expert', Daytr, that I don't know anything about gold, I'd love a dollar every time I've been told that, I've been right for years, but goldbugs like sticking with gold, all the way down.

We'll never know how much money has been lost on gold and silver by naive punters believing the world economy is going to crash after listening to scamsters like Sinclair.

[Bobcat.]

Skol,
A balanced view, please. If you look at your own posts on this thread last December and January, you will see that you were very bearish on Gold. Some were influenced by that opinion, and went short. Daytr, myself and others read the market differently and made good profit through to mid-March. By all means offer an opinion, but when you get too proud of it, then people will dig around to challenge it.

Did you put your money where your mouth was three months ago when you were encuraging others to short? If so, you'd be well out of pocket. The charts don't lie.

[Skol]

Bobcat,

I've never encouraged anyone to short it, I think the whole gold story is overblown and a major accident waiting to happen.

Whereas Datyr's forecasts are always conditional, it might do this or it might do that, I say that eventually it's going way below $1,000, and given the world recovery I wouldn't risk my cash.

I'm always reading about how much money gold 'investors' make, but I've never read how much they've lost, and I'll bet it's plenty.

Ukraine is a fait accompli
Gold dropped $100 on no news
The long term trend is down
The US is in recovery mode
USD index on the way up
Gold production is increasing
Iraq bought 36 tonnes and gold declined
QE reduction
XGD bounced off the 200 day MA.



No thanks

[Daytr]

Looking like a nice start to the week. It will be interesting to see if Asian buying takes gold back over $1300 this afternoon. I really can't see why gold should go much lower as weak holders are out & with Asia & developing nations continuing to buy I think we will see gold supported on sell-offs like we have just seen. If we have seen the lows of this pull back that will be very positive for gold indeed. Just initial thoughts as I'm getting back up to speed. Cheers Daytr

[Skol]

Employment numbers in the US later this week could be the catalyst that sends gold lower.

[Skol]

Historical support level $1150.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101542278

[Bobcat.]

Down yet again. Looks like we might be getting set up for a "sell the rumour, buy the fact" platform. Watching with interest :)

Agreed. Analysts are predicting a 195k increase in non-farm payroll numbers (against the last actual of 135k). That's a big increase, and I believe there's a likelihood it will not be met. Americans have been pumping ego and waxing lyrical on how much the US Economy is improving. Tonight could be the reality check that is required, and one that many are not predicting. If so, the price of gold will recover accordingly.

http://www.kitco.com/news/2014-04-01/template_jimw.htm#gold2

There are technical buy signals, with Gold's RSI now sitting at 35% and trading this past week with heavy volume. The slide of the past two weeks has been gradual (no huge shorts) and it will not take much IMO to trigger a reversal. Tonight from 1:15 am (NZT) could be when we see one.

Trading accordingly.

BC

[Logen Ninefingers]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/10737892/Gazprom-uses-gas-to-tighten-noose-on-Ukraine.html

Very, very interesting reading here. Russia increasing it's moves to destabilize Ukraine and has really got them by the short and curlies. There is a lot of heat building up, meanwhile markets are existing 'in a parallel universe'.

[Logen Ninefingers]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-31/yellen-says-extraordinary-support-needed-for-some-time-.html

She's tried to tip toe away from her previous statement and climb back on the fence, but I don't think anyone will forget Yellen's 'rate rises mid 2015' pronouncement. Nice try though.

[Bobcat.]

As usual, we are seeing a lift in the PoG during the first two hours of Asian trading. Will it amount to much before we see the NYMEX tonight take it back down, as usual? The 1:30 am US's non-farm payroll announcement could be pivotal, however, and if it's disappointing lift Gold further through the rest of this week.

If the US job numbers come in high, I would be surprised to see Gold fall much further, given its slide over the past two weeks. I would say that the expectation of a significant rise in job numbers has been factored in, already. More upside for Gold from here on than downside IMO.

Trading to it. Now 70% loaded in precious metal digger stocks (mainly on the asx).

[Skol]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/10737892/Gazprom-uses-gas-to-tighten-noose-on-Ukraine.html

Very, very interesting reading here. Russia increasing it's moves to destabilize Ukraine and has really got them by the short and curlies. There is a lot of heat building up, meanwhile markets are existing 'in a parallel universe'.

The West's got Russia by the short and curlies, and if they don't back off ,the place is going into recession, tens of billions have already left the god-forsaken outpost.

[Bobcat.]

The West (particularly the USA with its inflated ego) believes that Russia needs it...a lot. Russia is however more of the view that it needs the West less than the West needs it (for Natural Gas, as a market for European cars, etc). This latest round of insults by the EU and USA will spur on further its efforts already under way to forge closer ties with Asia (e.g. energy into China and India)

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-25/first-russia-locks-china-holy-grail-gas-deal-now-rosneft-prepares-mega-deal-india

...avoiding US dollars by using the recent Bank of England deal with China to use the Yuan for global trading (over just the past three years, global trades using the Yuan have increased from 3% to 16% and that's about to climb much higher - yes Uncle Sam is mucho' nervous about this)

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-26750990

...and trade more with other significant non-G8 economies such as Brazil, Indonesia and Nigeria.

Russia's strategy is to engage more dependently with Asia and non-G8 economies, not the US and less on the EU.

Check this out (first article):

http://www.mauldineconomics.com/ttmygh/fight-club

Moreover, it is the US, Germany and Nato that are doing all the sabre-rattling. When the USSR was split, the commander of Nato gave his word that Nato would not spread east. He lied.

Since the fall of the USSR and Eastern Europe, NATO has swallowed nine countries from the former socialist camp in Eastern Europe and three formerly Soviet Baltic republics. This expansion toward Russia’s borders has taken place in steps, with little resistance, and its current move is to advance further if at all possible into the Ukraine. To protect its own national security, Russia will need to find some leverage to prevent that happening (e.g. it has just raised by 44% the price of Natural Gas into the Ukraine) but clearly this has been Nato's hidden agenda for the past 20 years, and is not about to change.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/02/world/europe/russia-ukraine.html?_r=0

[Skol]

The USA will export LNG to the EU and Ukraine, it's no problem they've got heaps of it and recovering more each day. Russia need the West a lot more than the West needs Russia, and the Russian economy is in a very parlous state.

Big US companies are urging the US Govt ot approve export permits for oil and gas and some have already been issued.

[Bobcat.]

I see that Visa and American Express have banned Russians from using their card services. What a joke. Are they declaring war on Russia? That used to take an act of Congress. These companies have before bowed down to the politicians in Washington (see their earlier blocking of donations to WikiLeaks website) but this really is shooting themselves in the commercial foot. Their competitors must be rubbing their hands with glee.

http://rt.com/business/visa-mastercard-russia-sanctions-285/

What's next? General Motors banning car exports to Russians? And then asking Congress for an uplift in their Detroit bailout? Ha. It would be funny if it wasn't so pathetic, and counter-productive, and dangerously bullying.

And before you try to tell people that Russia has been the bully, look at the facts:

1. Crimea's population (60% Russian) voted overwhelmingly (>90%) in their own referendum to annex from Ukraine and rejoin Russia (they were part of the USSR until 1959)

2. That decision was the direct result of the Crimean people's dissatisfaction with (nay, firm opposition to!) the bandit coup in Kiev several weeks prior, that overthrew (with Western involvement) Ukraine's legitimate government

3. Russia supported and endorsed Crimea's return to the Russian Federation.

All quite legal.

Ask yourself why the EU and Obama are calling Russia's involvement an international crime, and the referendum illegitimate. Are they going to label Scotland's upcoming referendum also illegitimate and place Nato forces on its borders? Of course not, so what do you think could be their real agenda?

The West (USA mainly) ignoring UN Security protocol, assisted the Albanians in their annexation of Kosovo from Serbia against the will of Serbians. Was that seen by the West as 'an international crime'. Of course not - but why not?

US foreign policy is unfortunately best defined by three words: 'double standards' and 'hypocrisy'.

And no, I'm not a communist sympathiser...just one of many 'Westerners' who love the truth too much to be quick to swallow the half truths and lies that too often today lace the rhetoric of our politicians, and which are propagated to their delight by those in mainstream media all to eager to whistle the pipers tune. Where o' where is investigative journalism. If our modern 'free' media loses any more of that, then we really are in trouble.

BC

[Skol]

Not legal, the former Soviet Union implanted russians there, the same as they did in lithuania, Kazakhstan, siberia and all over. Chinese are doing the same thing now.

Russia is gonna go into recession, very unpleasant, it's on the brink now, the roubles's imploding, probably a good reason to buy some gold.

Nikita Kruschev gave the Crimea to Ukraine in 1954, probably to atone for the mass murder of millions of Ukrainians by the russians.
Ukraianians still hate the russians, who can blame them, plenty do.

[Bobcat.]

Nikita Kruschev gave the Crimea to Ukraine in 1954, probably to atone for the mass murder of millions of Ukrainians by the russians.
Ukraianians still hate the russians, who can blame them, plenty do.

Kruschev was himself from Ukraine, and had a soft spot for it. When he gifted Crimea, the USSR was a solid entity. Crimea with its Black Sea naval port is too strategic for Russia to leave it under the control of a Western supported bunch of fascist thugs in Kiev, especially with Nato advancing as the aggressor at close range.

Remember the Cuban missile crisis in October of 1962? How did the USA like nukes at close range? That's right - they almost went to war over it. Double standards.

[Skol]

Bobcat

"Crimea is too strategic for Russia to leave it".

So they invade it, you're a communist sympathiser.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hankering for the good ol' cold war days bobcat to send gold up? The Cuban crisis was in 1962, things have changed since then, maybe you haven't.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Expect more geo-political crises now that Russia has been allowed to swallow Crimea and been slapped with a wet bus ticket. China will be watching with great interest, and I expect it will now feel it has carte blanche for an increasing flexing of it's muscles in the South China Sea, where it will run up against US proxies and the US itself.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/31/us-philippines-china-reef-idUSBREA2U02720140331
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/24/world/asia/anger-grows-in-taiwan-against-deal-with-china.html?ref=territorialdisputes&_r=0
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/06/world/asia/china-military-budget.html?ref=territorialdisputes
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/09/world/asia/china.html?ref=territorialdisputes

[Bobcat.]

Bobcat

"Crimea is too strategic for Russia to leave it".

So they invade it....

But they didn't invade it, Skol. You've been hoodwinked by US mainstream media.

As a result of right wing nationalists and fascists illegally overthrowing the Kiev government, the people of Crimea freely voted overwhelmingly in their own devised referendum to annex from the Ukraine and rejoin Russia. They exercised their democratic right. Don't be too quick to deny them that right...otherwise to be consistent you'd need to deny the Scotts theirs, and any of your own states a similar right in the future.

Obama and the EU have another agenda. Why can't you see that?

[Skol]

But they didn't invade it, Skol. You've been hoodwinked by US mainstream media.

As a result of right wing nationalists and fascists illegally overthrowing the Kiev government, the people of Crimea freely voted overwhelmingly in their own devised referendum to annex from the Ukraine and rejoin Russia. They exercised their democratic right. Don't be too quick to deny them that right...otherwise to be consistent you'd need to deny the Scotts theirs, and any of your own states a similar right in the future.

Obama and the EU have another agenda. Why can't you see that?

Of course the people of Crimea voted in favour of Russia. Russia filled the Crimea with ethnic russians, what other result could there be? You're an unashamed Putin sympathiser, a former KGB spook, very odd indeed. It was an invasion, otherwise they wouldn't have the need for Russian troops and warships in the Crimea.

The Scots can have theirs, but they're probably not that stupid. The 'mainstream media', give me a break, that's the kind of crap goldbugs talk. You're typical America-hating goldbug, but that's not unusual, it's par for the course.

By next winter the USA will probably be able to supply the EU with lots of gas, that'll get Putin's attention. You'd obviously prefer to live in Russia than the EU, I haven't seen any queues at immigration offices to get into Russia. lol

Here's list of just a few countries that Russia's invaded when not at war.

Czechoslovakia, Poland, Finland, Ukraine, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Georgia and Hungary

[Logen Ninefingers]

http://money.cnn.com/2014/04/02/investing/adp-jobs-report/index.html

US job report underwhelms, winter still getting blame.

[Skol]

Only 191,000? Pretty damned good I'd say. Let's see how many jobs Russia creates over the next few months.

Goldbugs keep telling me China's gonna take over the world, but there's major debt problems there and over 500 riots a day.

What fun!

[Bobcat.]

It was an invasion, otherwise they wouldn't have the need for Russian troops and warships in the Crimea.


Actually Skol, you need to get your facts right. As part of Russia's long-standing agreements with the Ukraine, there have been Russian naval troops and fleet in Sevastopol, Crimea for centuries. Ask yourself why your American networks have not publicised this.

Facts:
1. Russia have had its Black Fleet stationed in Crimea since just before they defeated the Turks in 1790!
2. More recently, in 1997, Moscow and Kiev agreed to Russia officially renting the naval base of Sevastopol from Ukraine, and in 2010, they agreed to prolong the rent of the naval base till 2042, with an option of extending it by a further five years.
3. As part of these agreements, Russia annually paid the Ukrainian government $526.5 million for the base, as well as wrote off $97.75 million of Kiev’s debt for the right to use Ukrainian waters and radio frequencies, and to compensate for the Black Sea Fleet’s environmental impact.
4. The Russian Navy was allowed to station up to 25,000 troops, 24 artillery systems, 132 armored vehicles and 22 military planes on the territory of Crimea in addition to the vessels.

There has been no invasion as you claim above, just a lot of unsubstantiated accusations by Obama and Merkel et al that Russia was about to invade, and then when a few Russian troops were seen in Crimea (legally as part of the above agreements) and military exercises conducted by Russia on their own land close to the border with Ukraine, they accused Russia of actually invading without evidence. You have been deceived...but then you're not the only one.

Oh, and just because I'm not a war-monger towards Russia does not make me a communist sympathiser. Quality check your own bias. If Russia was the aggressor in this situation, denying the Ukraine people their democratic rights, then I'd oppose their actions...but in this case it is Obama, Merkel and Nato that are impinging on Ukraine's democratic right to choose their government as an alternative to the one that took power illegally last year in a bandit coup.

Same data, different interpretation. Don't lose your love for the truth, my friend. Beware of the half-truths and political agendas behind your internal media reports. Check them for anti-Russian, cold war rhetoric and unashamed political bias. Given the Snowden leaks, Obama and Merkel are very keen to be seen by the world as united and teaming up together over something important, and this is good enough politically for both of them...the trouble is that it puts the rest of us in harms way when they spit in the face, threaten, attack (with sanctions, etc) and personally insult another G8 world power with nothing less than bully tactics simply because Russia supported politically and culturally the people of Crimea who asked to be annexed from the Ukraine and return to the Russian Federation.

Russia’s lower chamber of parliament, the State Duma, earlier this week has voted to denounce the Russian-Ukrainian agreements on the Black Sea Fleet. The MPs voted to halt the rent payments to Kiev for Sevastopol naval base and to cease writing off Ukraine’s debt. Guess who wins from that. Ukraine? No. The EU, Nato or USA? No. Russia has no need to invade Ukraine. The eastern part of Ukraine are fed up with the new, illegitimate Kiev 'government' - they never voted them in. The leader they did vote in was ousted in a coup, and so it's only natural they are seeking an alternative. It's their democratic right to do so. And they, like Crimea, are doing so peacefully...which is more than what I can say for Nato which has been sabre-rattling and making aggressive, in-your-face advances towards Russia, this week cutting cooperative ties in a cold-war-like stance that deliberately escalates tension, and IMO makes the world more dangerous than anything Russia has done to date in this so-called crisis.

http://rt.com/news/duma-denounces-blackseafleet-deal-401/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Sea_Fleet

[Skol]

You don't suppose Russian troops occupying Ukraianian military facilities is an invasion? I do, so do most thinking people.
--------------------------

On February 19, 1954 the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet of the Soviet Union issued a decree transferring the Crimean Oblast from the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic to the Ukrainian SSR. According to the Soviet Constitution (article 18), the borders of a republic within the Soviet Union cannot be re-drawn without the agreement of the republic in question. The transfer was approved by the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet of the Soviet Union.

The decree was first announced, on the front page of Pravda, on February 27, 1954.
---------------------------
--------------------------

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424053111903536004579459323209921860.html?m od=BOL_twm_ls#articleTabs_article%3D1

$75 oil, Russia will be on its knees.

And:

Russian aggression near the Baltic states.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26849732

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/939659ae-b67d-11e3-b230-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=intl#axzz2xmSZwQSw

[Bobcat.]

Gold and silver were supported well in London last night and held up well enough on the NYMEX with Gold closing just higher than 1290USD.

The worm has turned, breaking through the short-term downward trend-line that has prevailed these past two weeks. It will lift further but for how long. Nato advances into Lithuania and other Baltic states are likely to further escalate tension with Russia and bring more upward pressure on the price of precious metals.

Technically, we are witnessing IMO a consolidation in the price of Gold between 1280 and 1380...for the short term at least.

Trading to it.

BC

[Logen Ninefingers]

Only 191,000? Pretty damned good I'd say. Let's see how many jobs Russia creates over the next few months.

Goldbugs keep telling me China's gonna take over the world, but there's major debt problems there and over 500 riots a day.

What fun!

We are talking about an inter-connected global economy. You are running down both the Russian and Chinese economies, whereas any suggestion of a slowdown in China sends jitters through markets globally. Let's say China has some sort of melt-down as you seem to suggest it is building towards : that will put the global economy in a tail-spin and send money flooding into everyone's favourite safe haven.

Your default setting on anything that is raised is "move along, nothing to see here". If China mounted a full-scale invasion of Taiwan tomorrow you would claim it was a storm in a teacup of no real significance.

[Skol]

We are talking about an inter-connected global economy. You are running down both the Russian and Chinese economies, whereas any suggestion of a slowdown in China sends jitters through markets globally. Let's say China has some sort of melt-down as you seem to suggest it is building towards : that will put the global economy in a tail-spin and send money flooding into everyone's favourite safe haven.

Your default setting on anything that is raised is "move along, nothing to see here". If China mounted a full-scale invasion of Taiwan tomorrow you would claim it was a storm in a teacup of no real significance.

Yeah, I do run down the Russian and Chinese economies, mainly to point out that the USD won't be replaced as the reserve currency anytime soon, something goldbugs regard as a fait accompli.
You can put your hard-earned cash into yuan or roubles, but I wont be. Anyone with an ounce of brains hasn't got a cent in russia, the stockmarket's down 50% and the rouble's crashing.

All the dramas that goldbugs reckon were gonna send gold to the moon have amounted to zilch, human beings are far too smart for that these days.

The chinese economy is in a little bit of strife, pollution on a massive scale, riots, Tibet, Xinjiang, debt, an an overheated property market and the smarter chinese buying houses in the USA, Britain, NZ and Australia.

That's why chinese buy gold.

[Logen Ninefingers]

All the dramas that goldbugs reckon were gonna send gold to the moon have amounted to zilch, human beings are far too smart for that these days.


Hahaha, the GFC never happened!!!!

[Logen Ninefingers]

"That will happen on lack of earnings, the lack of growth coming into the sector"

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101550506

[Logen Ninefingers]

We are on the cusp of the correction.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/markets-shrug-off-earnings-gloom/article17763018/

[Skol]

Hahaha, the GFC never happened!!!!

The GFC happened all right, but gold didn't go to the moon, goldbugs lost heaps listening to tossers like Peter Schiff and Mike Maloney.

[Logen Ninefingers]

What if non-farm comes off above 200k tomorrow and the market rallies hard LNF? Prepared to eat your words?

Tis easy to be negative at the bottom of a trend ;)

I won't be eating my words because that's separate from the earnings issue. QE and zero interest rates created a skewed and unsustainable earnings / profit environment in 2013, and the chickens come home to roost this year and even more so next year as business conditions normalize with interest rate rises and the end of QE. There is no way that a correction is not coming; it is a certainty.

...And in other news - the US trade deficit widens as exports decline, and jobless claims rise in late March.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-03/trade-deficit-in-u-s-unexpectedly-widens-as-exports-decrease.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-03/jobless-claims-in-u-s-increased-16-000-last-week-to-326-000.html

[Skol]

There's always corrections, nothing goes up forever, but the long-term trend is up for the stockmarket and down for gold.

I'm an optimist like Warren Buffett, after a protracted recession, there'll be a prolonged upturn, and those exposed to gold will miss out, as they have done for nearly 3 years.

[skid]

If it isn't rising why does it have to be a massive fall all the time with you guys? Ever considered consolidation at these levels to play catch up? The world economy is recovering, I don't see why it would suddenly capitulate totally again? QE is being tapered and has been for many months, with a target date of $0 for end of year. If the market is forward looking and so dependent on stimulus as you suggest, why didn't it self destruct long ago? Hmmmm...

How much tapering has there been so far?

[Skol]

Maybe the Russians ought to think about buying some gold.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-03/gazprom-s-910-billion-gaffe-shows-putin-economy-waning.html

[Bobcat.]

I'd be very surprised if the Fed reduces its purchase of mortgage-backed securities and treasuries below $50B/month any time this year or next...especially now that there is no obligation to do so based on the US unemployment rate (Bernanke put an end to that last December).

Wait and see. Some mini-crisis this year is all it will take for the Fed to revise its current tapering 'plan'....so as to be more 'accommodative' and supportive of a 'true recovery'. These banksters are taking wage earners and other joe publics for a very long ride, and will continue to do so whilst there's still money to be made selling bad mortgage 'assets' to the Fed in return for cash that they can put into highly speculative derivatives offshore for a quick big profit.

But this greed and deceit will come home to roost (sometime this year almost certainly)....and then of course the American ego being what it is they will blame China or Europe...anyone but themselves for the sorry state in which the world will then find itself, wondering 'just how did that happen?'.

Of course, the Fed will try to once again ride in to the rescue but (hopefully) they might find that rather than been seen as an economic saviour remotely credible, they will end up resembling more the rear end of the horse they ride in on.

BC

[Bobcat.]

BC, first it was "QE forever", now it's "no less than $50B per month". I can't see why the Fed won't continue to taper as the bad numbers (ie unemployment) continue to slowly reduce.

Still good on my $850 call for PoG for the year end (that's even more bearish than Skol!!!). Watch out Mr Sinclair, you might get gored!

Trading to it ;)

I don't recall posting "QE forever", Moosie. Which post?

...and you have not really taken a short position on Gold at these current prices, have you? Please confirm.

BC

[Logen Ninefingers]

It's stimulus, stimulus and more stimulus no matter where you look, QE is a ramping up worldwide;

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/18f49ba6-bb1a-11e3-948c-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2xyqzbMqq
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/04/business/international/china-leans-toward-more-stimulus-measures.html?_r=0
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/19/us-japan-economy-idUSBREA2I06820140319

[Skol]

Did you see 'The Secret World of Gold' on the History Channel?

All the now discredited stories and the discredited Eric Sprott banging on about why gold was important, why Fort Knox was probably empty, why the West was doomed and the East would flourish, the German gold and all the myths that were gonna send gold to the moon.

Not forgetting the huge fuss goldbugs made of the Venezuelan gold, which got a special mention, 211 tonnes of it which was repatratriated to ensure the safety of the gold and the continued prosperity of Venezuela. In the meantime that country has sunk into political chaos and hyperinflation. lol

Gold has continued downwards, so it's all a load of codswallop. Nice to look at but of minimal relevance in the modern world.

[JBmurc]

The market sentiment in the precious metals is at an all-time low ....some how it's in a bubble what BS
IMHO the PM will either continue sideways or move higher forget the crash it's been >>>time to get with the present